Science.gov

Sample records for aid risk assessment

  1. AIDS: Assessing the Risk among Athletes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamel, Ruth

    1992-01-01

    Since Magic Johnson's retirement, athletes and sports organizations are more interested in HIV and AIDS. Many seek answers from physicians about the risk of transmission through athletic competition and the rights of HIV-positive players. Physicians can counsel patients about reducing risk. The article discusses risk, testing, policies, education,…

  2. Assessment of AIDS Risk among Treatment Seeking Drug Abusers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Black, John L.; And Others

    Intravenous (IV) drug abusers are at risk for contracting transmittable diseases such as acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and hepatitis B. This study was conducted to investigate the prevalence of risk behaviors for acquiring and transmitting AIDS and hepatitis B among treatment-seeking drug abusers (N=168). Subjects participated in a…

  3. Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

    PubMed Central

    Mattison, D R; Jelovsek, F R

    1987-01-01

    A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approaches that are formally capable of using biologically relevant information (pharmacokinetics and expert system shells) are explored as aids to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology. PMID:3447888

  4. Exposing variation to aid climate change risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, M. J.; Purves, D. W.; Joppa, L. N.; Emmott, S.; Lyutsarev, V.; Bishop, C. M.; Palmer, P. I.; Calderhead, B.; Vanderwel, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Considerable efforts to quantify different sources of variation in climate change projections (some might say uncertainty) have led to a welcome set of additional information on which to base confidence about what and how different futures might unfold and how different types of mediating efforts might affect the future. Quantifying the impacts of these different sources of variation on key climate change projection metrics should be used in part to guide future model development efforts. I will report on several of my team's recent research projects to better quantify and assess the importance of different sources of variation. I will show how we use inference techniques to estimate parameter uncertainty in land and marine carbon components of earth system models by comparing them with observational evidence and show how we propagate such uncertainty to better assess how such systems might respond to climate change and quantify the impact of reducing uncertainty for different applications. I will also show how we use such techniques on simulation models themselves to identify key sources of variation in their predictions: helping to pinpoint important focal areas for model improvement. Lastly, I will show a new software prototype being designed to enable any user to view climate model projections alongside historical and recent observational evidence while, importantly, also exposing some of the variation / uncertainty in the reported information.

  5. The DANGERTOME Personal Risk Threat Assessment Scale: An Instrument to Help Aid Immediate Threat Assessment for Counselors, Faculty, and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Juhnke, Gerald A.

    2010-01-01

    Threats of violence are not uncommon to counselors, faculty, or teachers. Each must be taken seriously, quickly analyzed, and safety procedures implemented. Yet, there exists a paucity of brief, face-to-face, assessments designed to aid threat assessment. To address this paucity, the author created The DANGERTOME Personal Risk Threat Assessment…

  6. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  7. Predicting pathogen risks to aid beach management: the real value of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    There has been an ongoing dilemma for agencies who set criteria for safe recreational waters in how to provide for a seasonal assessment of a beach site versus guidance for day-to-day management. Typically an overall 'safe' criterion level is derived from epidemiologic studies o...

  8. Interactive Voice Response Self-Monitoring to Assess Risk Behaviors in Rural Substance Users Living with HIV/AIDS

    PubMed Central

    Tucker, Jalie A.; Blum, Elizabeth R.; Xie, Lili; Roth, David L.; Simpson, Cathy A.

    2011-01-01

    Community-dwelling HIV/AIDS patients in rural Alabama self-monitored (SM) daily HIV risk behaviors using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system, which may enhance reporting, reduce monitored behaviors, and extend the reach of care. Sexually active substance users (35 men, 19 women) engaged in IVR SM of sex, substance use, and surrounding contexts for 4–10 weeks. Baseline predictors of IVR utilization were assessed, and longitudinal IVR SM effects on risk behaviors were examined. Frequent (n = 22), infrequent (n = 22), and non-caller (n = 10) groups were analyzed. Non-callers had shorter durations of HIV medical care and lower safer sex self-efficacy and tended to be older heterosexuals. Among callers, frequent callers had lost less social support. Longitudinal logistic regression models indicated reductions in risky sex and drug use with IVR SM over time. IVR systems appear to have utility for risk assessment and reduction for rural populations living with HIV disease. PMID:21311964

  9. Interactive voice response self-monitoring to assess risk behaviors in rural substance users living with HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Jalie A; Blum, Elizabeth R; Xie, Lili; Roth, David L; Simpson, Cathy A

    2012-02-01

    Community-dwelling HIV/AIDS patients in rural Alabama self-monitored (SM) daily HIV risk behaviors using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system, which may enhance reporting, reduce monitored behaviors, and extend the reach of care. Sexually active substance users (35 men, 19 women) engaged in IVR SM of sex, substance use, and surrounding contexts for 4-10 weeks. Baseline predictors of IVR utilization were assessed, and longitudinal IVR SM effects on risk behaviors were examined. Frequent (n = 22), infrequent (n = 22), and non-caller (n = 10) groups were analyzed. Non-callers had shorter durations of HIV medical care and lower safer sex self-efficacy and tended to be older heterosexuals. Among callers, frequent callers had lost less social support. Longitudinal logistic regression models indicated reductions in risky sex and drug use with IVR SM over time. IVR systems appear to have utility for risk assessment and reduction for rural populations living with HIV disease.

  10. Computer simulation to aid the risk assessment of wheelchair and special seating systems used in transport.

    PubMed

    Rogers, P D; Gibson, C; Wilcox, S J; Chong, A

    2009-01-01

    The crashworthiness of occupied proprietary wheelchairs, which are transported in motor vehicles, is currently assessed by physical crash testing in accordance with ISO 7176-19. If such wheelchairs are modified to meet the needs of the occupant, e.g. the addition of special seating, environmental control systems or life support equipment, then those making the modifications take on the manufacturer's responsibilities, one of these being the assessment of the modified wheelchair's ability to withstand vehicle crash forces. Destructively testing bespoke wheelchair designs is not practical so, currently, the transport-related risk is assessed using best engineering judgement. To improve this process virtual crash testing of the wheelchair and occupant was used. A modified crash criteria from ISO 7176-19 is proposed to enable assessment of the wheelchair's crashworthiness and provide the clinical engineer with an informed judgement of how both wheelchair alone and occupant and wheelchair together will behave in a crash.

  11. Mechanistic insights aid the search for CFC substitutes: risk assessment of HCFC-123 as an example.

    PubMed

    Jarabek, A M; Fisher, J W; Rubenstein, R; Lipscomb, J C; Williams, R J; Vinegar, A; McDougal, J N

    1994-06-01

    An international consensus on the need to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting gases such as the halons led to the adoptions of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and Title VI of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, "Protecting Stratospheric Ozone." These agreements included major provisions for reducing and eventually phasing out production and use of CFCs and halons as well as advancing the development of replacement chemicals. Because of the ubiquitous use and benefits of CFCs and halons, an expeditious search for safe replacements to meet the legislative deadlines is of critical importance. Toxicity testing and health risk assessment programs were established to evaluate the health and environmental impact of these replacement chemicals. Development and implementation of these programs as well as the structural-activity relationships significant for the development of the replacement chemicals are described below. A dose-response evaluation for the health risk assessment of the replacement chemical HCFC-123 (2,2-dichloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) is also presented to show an innovative use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. This is based on a parallelogram approach using data on the anesthetic gas halothane, a structural analog to HCFC-123. Halothane and HCFC-123 both form the same metabolite, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), indicative of the same metabolic oxidative pathway attributed to hepatotoxicity. The parallelogram approach demonstrates the application of template model structures and shows how PBPK modeling, together with judicious experimental design, can be used to improve the accuracy of health risk assessment and to decrease the need for extensive laboratory animal testing.

  12. Designing Visual Aids That Promote Risk Literacy.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T

    2017-02-01

    Background Effective risk communication is essential for informed decision making. Unfortunately, many people struggle to understand typical risk communications because they lack essential decision-making skills. Objective The aim of this study was to review the literature on the effect of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, and to evaluate the benefits of visual aids in risk communication. Method We present a conceptual framework describing the influence of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, followed by a systematic review of the benefits of visual aids in risk communication for people with different levels of numeracy and graph literacy. The systematic review covers scientific research published between January 1995 and April 2016, drawn from the following databases: Web of Science, PubMed, PsycINFO, ERIC, Medline, and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria were investigation of the effect of numeracy and/or graph literacy, and investigation of the effect of visual aids or comparison of their effect with that of numerical information. Thirty-six publications met the criteria, providing data on 27,885 diverse participants from 60 countries. Results Transparent visual aids robustly improved risk understanding in diverse individuals by encouraging thorough deliberation, enhancing cognitive self-assessment, and reducing conceptual biases in memory. Improvements in risk understanding consistently produced beneficial changes in attitudes, behavioral intentions, trust, and healthy behaviors. Visual aids were found to be particularly beneficial for vulnerable and less skilled individuals. Conclusion Well-designed visual aids tend to be highly effective tools for improving informed decision making among diverse decision makers. We identify five categories of practical, evidence-based guidelines for heuristic evaluation and design of effective visual aids.

  13. Usability Testing of a Web-Based Decision Aid for Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Among Multi-Ethnic Women.

    PubMed

    Coe, Austin M; Ueng, William; Vargas, Jennifer M; David, Raven; Vanegas, Alejandro; Infante, Katherine; Trivedi, Meghna; Yi, Haeseung; Dimond, Jill; Crew, Katherine D; Kukafka, Rita

    2016-01-01

    Chemoprevention with antiestrogens could decrease the incidence of invasive breast cancer but uptake has been low among high-risk women in the United States. We have designed a web-based patient-facing decision aid, called RealRisks, to inform high-risk women about the risks and benefits of chemoprevention and facilitate shared decision-making with their primary care provider. We conducted two rounds of usability testing to determine how subjects engaged with and understood the information in RealRisks. A total of 7 English-speaking and 4 Spanish-speaking subjects completed testing. Using surveys, think-aloud protocols, and subject recordings, we identified several themes relating to the usability of RealRisks, specifically in the content, ease of use, and navigability of the application. By conducting studies in two languages with a diverse multi-ethnic population, we were able to implement interface changes to make RealRisks accessible to users with varying health literacy and acculturation.

  14. Usability Testing of a Web-Based Decision Aid for Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Among Multi-Ethnic Women

    PubMed Central

    Coe, Austin M.; Ueng, William; Vargas, Jennifer M.; David, Raven; Vanegas, Alejandro; Infante, Katherine; Trivedi, Meghna; Yi, Haeseung; Dimond, Jill; Crew, Katherine D.; Kukafka, Rita

    2016-01-01

    Chemoprevention with antiestrogens could decrease the incidence of invasive breast cancer but uptake has been low among high-risk women in the United States. We have designed a web-based patient-facing decision aid, called RealRisks, to inform high-risk women about the risks and benefits of chemoprevention and facilitate shared decision-making with their primary care provider. We conducted two rounds of usability testing to determine how subjects engaged with and understood the information in RealRisks. A total of 7 English-speaking and 4 Spanish-speaking subjects completed testing. Using surveys, think-aloud protocols, and subject recordings, we identified several themes relating to the usability of RealRisks, specifically in the content, ease of use, and navigability of the application. By conducting studies in two languages with a diverse multi-ethnic population, we were able to implement interface changes to make RealRisks accessible to users with varying health literacy and acculturation. PMID:28269836

  15. Behavioral Risk Factors for AIDS among Adolescents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Millstein, Susan G.

    This document examines the incidence of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) among adolescents in the United States and identifies several risk factors for AIDS among this population. It classifies adolescents' risk for contracting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection by the degree to which adolescents engage in behaviors that are…

  16. Fracture risk assessment: improved evaluation of vertebral integrity among metastatic cancer patients to aid in surgical decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Augustine, Kurt E.; Camp, Jon J.; Holmes, David R.; Huddleston, Paul M.; Lu, Lichun; Yaszemski, Michael J.; Robb, Richard A.

    2012-03-01

    Failure of the spine's structural integrity from metastatic disease can lead to both pain and neurologic deficit. Fractures that require treatment occur in over 30% of bony metastases. Our objective is to use computed tomography (CT) in conjunction with analytic techniques that have been previously developed to predict fracture risk in cancer patients with metastatic disease to the spine. Current clinical practice for cancer patients with spine metastasis often requires an empirical decision regarding spinal reconstructive surgery. Early image-based software systems used for CT analysis are time consuming and poorly suited for clinical application. The Biomedical Image Resource (BIR) at Mayo Clinic, Rochester has developed an image analysis computer program that calculates from CT scans, the residual load-bearing capacity in a vertebra with metastatic cancer. The Spine Cancer Assessment (SCA) program is built on a platform designed for clinical practice, with a workflow format that allows for rapid selection of patient CT exams, followed by guided image analysis tasks, resulting in a fracture risk report. The analysis features allow the surgeon to quickly isolate a single vertebra and obtain an immediate pre-surgical multiple parallel section composite beam fracture risk analysis based on algorithms developed at Mayo Clinic. The analysis software is undergoing clinical validation studies. We expect this approach will facilitate patient management and utilization of reliable guidelines for selecting among various treatment option based on fracture risk.

  17. Mechanistic insights aid the search for CFC substitutes: Risk assessment of HCFC-123 as an example. [CFC (chlorofluorocarbons)

    SciTech Connect

    Jarabek, A.M. ); Fisher, J.W.; Lipscomb, J.C.; Williams, R.J.; McDougal, J.N. ); Rubenstein, R. ); Vinegar, A. )

    1994-06-01

    An international consensus on the need to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting gases such as the halons led to the adoptions of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and Title VI of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, [open quotes]Protecting Stratospheric Ozone.[close quotes] These agreements included major provisions for reducing and eventually phasing out production and use of CFCs and halons as well as advancing the development of replacement chemicals. Because of the ubiquitous use and benefits of CFCs and halons, and expeditious search for safe replacements to meet the legislative deadlines is of critical importance. Toxicity testing and health risk assessment programs were established to evaluate the health and environmental impact of these replacement chemicals. Development and implementation of these programs as well as the structural-activity relationships significant for the development of the replacement chemicals are described below. A dose-response evaluation for the health risk assessment of the replacement chemical HCFC-123 (2,2-dichloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) is also presented to show an innovative use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. This is based on a parallelogram approach using data on the anesthetic gas halothane, a structural analog to HCFC-123. Halothane and HCFC-123 both form the same metabolite, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), indicative of the same metabolic oxidative pathway attributed to hepatotoxicity. The parallelogram approach demonstrates the application of template model structures and shows how PBPK modeling, together with judicious experimental design, can be used to improve the accuracy of health risk assessment and to decrease the need for extensive laboratory animal testing. 53 refs., 9 figs., 14 tabs.

  18. Advances in stalking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McEwan, Troy E; Pathé, Michele; Ogloff, James R P

    2011-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, forensic mental health has become more concerned with the concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment. The development of specialist tools to aid in the assessment of a range of risks reflects this concern. This article explores contemporary thinking on violence risk assessment and how this knowledge can be applied to the relatively newer field of stalking risk assessment. The role of risk state and risk status are discussed, in addition to the way that standard structured professional judgment procedures need to be adapted to reflect the variety of risks present in stalking situations. The authors go on to describe the development and format of the Stalking Risk Profile, a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk in stalkers. Suggestions are made for future research to enhance knowledge and improve practice in the field of stalking risk assessment.

  19. Global and local health burden trade-off through the hybridisation of quantitative microbial risk assessment and life cycle assessment to aid water management.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yumi; Peters, Greg M; Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Khan, Stuart J

    2015-08-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) are commonly used to evaluate potential human health impacts associated with proposed or existing infrastructure and products. Each approach has a distinct objective and, consequently, their conclusions may be inconsistent or contradictory. It is proposed that the integration of elements of QRA and LCA may provide a more holistic approach to health impact assessment. Here we examine the possibility of merging LCA assessed human health impacts with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for waterborne pathogen impacts, expressed with the common health metric, disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The example of a recent large-scale water recycling project in Sydney, Australia was used to identify and demonstrate the potential advantages and current limitations of this approach. A comparative analysis of two scenarios - with and without the development of this project - was undertaken for this purpose. LCA and QMRA were carried out independently for the two scenarios to compare human health impacts, as measured by DALYs lost per year. LCA results suggested that construction of the project would lead to an increased number of DALYs lost per year, while estimated disease burden resulting from microbial exposures indicated that it would result in the loss of fewer DALYs per year than the alternative scenario. By merging the results of the LCA and QMRA, we demonstrate the advantages in providing a more comprehensive assessment of human disease burden for the two scenarios, in particular, the importance of considering the results of both LCA and QRA in a comparative assessment of decision alternatives to avoid problem shifting. The application of DALYs as a common measure between the two approaches was found to be useful for this purpose.

  20. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  1. Fear of AIDS and Risk Reduction among Heroin-Addicted Female Street Prostitutes: Personal Interviews with 72 Southern California Subjects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bellis, David J.

    1990-01-01

    Interviewed 72 heroin-addicted female street prostitutes and assessed fear of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), AIDS risk reduction behavior, and prostitutes' recommendations for AIDS risk reduction programs. Self-reported data showed that, although subjects were afraid of AIDS, irrationality produced by addiction compelled risky…

  2. Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elliott, Luisa M.; Mason, David C.; Allainguillaume, Joel; Wilkinson, Mike J.

    2009-11-01

    High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modeling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

  3. Targeting the audience for AIDS messages by actual and perceived risk.

    PubMed

    Snyder, L B; Rouse, R A

    1992-01-01

    Since there are many ways to segment an audience into target groups, we suggest that a productive strategy for AIDS education is to divide the audience by their actual and perceived risk. We provide an example in which we segmented an urban U.S. sample and make suggestions as to how messages appropriate for each group can be constructed. In our sample, the "unthreatened" accurately assessed their low risk of AIDS, and showed high knowledge and tolerance rates. The "panicked," who included more women and Hispanics, inaccurately thought themselves at high risk because of misunderstandings about the causes of AIDS, and showed more intolerance of people with AIDS. "Deniers" continued to have multiple sexual partners and take precautions irregularly, despite seeing AIDS as a social problem and having more education and AIDS knowledge. In contrast, "gamblers" recognized their higher risk of AIDS and were most likely to have taken some action, although not enough to prevent sexual transmission of the HIV virus.

  4. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  5. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

  6. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  7. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  8. Assessing the binocular advantage in aided vision.

    PubMed

    Harrington, Lawrence K; McIntire, John P; Hopper, Darrel G

    2014-09-01

    Advances in microsensors, microprocessors, and microdisplays are creating new opportunities for improving vision in degraded environments through the use of head-mounted displays. Initially, the cutting-edge technology used in these new displays will be expensive. Inevitably, the cost of providing the additional sensor and processing required to support binocularity brings the value of binocularity into question. Several assessments comparing binocular, binocular, and monocular head-mounted displays for aided vision have concluded that the additional performance, if any, provided by binocular head-mounted displays does not justify the cost. The selection of a biocular [corrected] display for use in the F-35 is a current example of this recurring decision process. It is possible that the human binocularity advantage does not carry over to the aided vision application, but more likely the experimental approaches used in the past have been too coarse to measure its subtle but important benefits. Evaluating the value of binocularity in aided vision applications requires an understanding of the characteristics of both human vision and head-mounted displays. With this understanding, the value of binocularity in aided vision can be estimated and experimental evidence can be collected to confirm or reject the presumed binocular advantage, enabling improved decisions in aided vision system design. This paper describes four computational approaches-geometry of stereopsis, modulation transfer function area for stereopsis, probability summation, and binocular summation-that may be useful in quantifying the advantage of binocularity in aided vision.

  9. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  10. Risk Factors for Mortality among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Following Antiretroviral Therapy in Southwestern Ethiopia: An Assessment through Survival Models

    PubMed Central

    Seyoum, Dinberu; Degryse, Jean-Marie; Kifle, Yehenew Getachew; Taye, Ayele; Tadesse, Mulualem; Birlie, Belay; Banbeta, Akalu; Rosas-Aguirre, Angel; Duchateau, Luc; Speybroeck, Niko

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Efforts have been made to reduce HIV/AIDS-related mortality by delivering antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment. However, HIV patients in resource-poor settings are still dying, even if they are on ART treatment. This study aimed to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Southwestern Ethiopia. Method: A non-concurrent retrospective cohort study which collected data from the clinical records of adult HIV/AIDS patients, who initiated ART treatment and were followed between January 2006 and December 2010, was conducted, to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality at Jimma University Specialized Hospital (JUSH). Survival times (i.e., the time from the onset of ART treatment to the death or censoring) and different characteristics of patients were retrospectively examined. A best-fit model was chosen for the survival data, after the comparison between native semi-parametric Cox regression and parametric survival models (i.e., exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic). Result: A total of 456 HIV patients were included in the study, mostly females (312, 68.4%), with a median age of 30 years (inter-quartile range (IQR): 23–37 years). Estimated follow-up until December 2010 accounted for 1245 person-years at risk (PYAR) and resulted in 66 (14.5%) deaths and 390 censored individuals, representing a median survival time of 34.0 months ( IQR: 22.8–42.0 months). The overall mortality rate was 5.3/100 PYAR: 6.5/100 PYAR for males and 4.8/100 PYAR for females. The Weibull survival model was the best model for fitting the data (lowest AIC). The main factors associated with mortality were: baseline age (>35 years old, AHR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.6–9.1), baseline weight (AHR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90–0.97), baseline WHO stage IV (AHR = 6.2, 95% CI: 2.2–14.2), and low adherence to ART treatment (AHR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.5–7.1). Conclusion: An effective reduction in HIV/AIDS mortality could be achieved through timely ART

  11. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  12. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  13. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  14. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  15. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  16. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  17. The social geography of AIDS and hepatitis risk: qualitative approaches for assessing local differences in sterile-syringe access among injection drug users.

    PubMed Central

    Singer, M; Stopka, T; Siano, C; Springer, K; Barton, G; Khoshnood, K; Gorry de Puga, A; Heimer, R

    2000-01-01

    While significant gains have been achieved in understanding and reducing AIDS and hepatitis risks among injection drug users (IDUs), it is necessary to move beyond individual-level characteristics to gain a fuller understanding of the impact of social context on risk. In this study, 6 qualitative methods were used in combination with more traditional epidemiologic survey approaches and laboratory bioassay procedures to examine neighborhood differences in access to sterile syringes among IDUs in 3 northeastern cities. These methods consisted of (1) neighborhood-based IDU focus groups to construct social maps of local equipment acquisition and drug use sites; (2) ethnographic descriptions of target neighborhoods; (3) IDU diary keeping on drug use and injection equipment acquisition; (4) ethnographic day visits with IDUs in natural settings; (5) interviews with IDUs about syringe acquisition and collection of syringes for laboratory analysis; and (6) focused field observation and processual interviewing during drug injection. Preliminary findings from each of these methods are reported to illustrate the methods' value in elucidating the impact of local and regional social factors on sterile syringe access. PMID:10897181

  18. Risk Assessment Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-10-01

    2W0 ww) A number of computer-based risk assessment tools were enhanced or creaited to provide Increased access to risk assessment instruments and...produced an extensible authoring tool , SYNTAS, for test instruments that will simplify the data gathering phase of subsequent work. SYNTAS gives DNA...Ultimately it became a computer-assisted software engineerting (CASE) tool capable of producing a wide variety of assessment instruments . In addition, its

  19. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  20. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  1. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  2. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  3. Sexual Risk Behaviors, AIDS Knowledge, and Beliefs about AIDS among Runaways.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Koopman, Cheryl

    1991-01-01

    Examined young runaways' current risk behaviors, knowledge of AIDS, and beliefs about preventing AIDS by questioning 130 male and female subjects from shelters in New York City in 1988-89. Results did not explain the 6.7 percent seroprevalence rate reported in l988. Recommends closer inquiries regarding IV drug use and prostitution. (DM)

  4. Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

  5. AIDS: Is Any Risk Too Great? The 1987 Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartog-Rapp, Fay

    This report discusses public school legal liability in the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) controversy with regard to the right of privacy of AIDS victims who are students and employees and the concern of risk of contagion to other students and employees and the public's right to know what is going on in their schools. Several steps…

  6. Gambling with Your Health: Predictors of Risk for AIDS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lasorsa, Dominic L.; Shoemaker, Pamela J.

    To examine risk for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) in terms of risk-related behaviors, and to investigate the factors that may be involved in putting one at risk, a study conducted telephone interviews with 493 randomly selected adults (18 years or older) in Austin, Texas in the fall of 1987. Respondents answered approximately 40…

  7. The International AIDS Questionnaire-English Version (IAQ-E): Assessing the Validity and Reliability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Cindy; Sloan, Melissa; MacMaster, Samuel; Hughes, Leslie

    2006-01-01

    In order to address HIV infection among college students, a comprehensive measure is needed that can be used with samples from culturally diverse populations. Therefore, this paper assessed the reliability and validity of an HIV/AIDS questionnaire that measures fours dimensions of HIV/AIDS awareness--factual knowledge, prejudice, personal risk,…

  8. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  9. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  10. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R. G.; Jusko, M. J.; Clemmons, M. A.

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  11. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  12. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  13. Student Financial Aid. High-Risk Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Comptroller General of the U.S., Washington, DC.

    This publication discusses areas of concern in the Department of Education's management and oversight of postsecondary student financial aid programs, especially the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP), the Federal Direct Student Loan Program (FDSLP), and the Federal Pell Grant Programs. The General Accounting Office determined that, in…

  14. Student Financial Aid. High Risk Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

    This report discusses the continuing concerns of the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) in regard to the Department of Education's management and oversight of postsecondary student financial aid programs, especially the Federal Family Education Loan, the Ford Direct Loan, and the Federal Pell Grant Programs. GAO commends the department for its…

  15. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  16. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    SciTech Connect

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  17. Perceived AIDS risk among adult arrestee injection drug users in Los Angeles county.

    PubMed

    Henson, K D; Longshore, D; Kowalewski, M R; Anglin, M D; Annon, K

    1998-10-01

    In this paper we examine the determinants of perceived risk for getting HIV and AIDS among adult Los Angeles arrestees reporting any lifetime injection drug use (N = 958). Our sample, drawn from the Drug Use Forecasting program, is 60% male and 40% female. Higher rates of reported risky drug and sexual behaviors than in the general population make this a particularly relevant sample within which to explore correlates of perceived risk for getting HIV and AIDS. We used multiple logistic regression to assess the relationship between perceived risk and a variety of demographic, behavioral, and psychosocial variables. Arrestees reporting celibacy in the past year, having an injection-drug-using sexual partner, having more than 20 sexual partners, engaging in sex while high, knowing someone with AIDS, and having been tested for HIV antibodies were more likely to perceive themselves at greater risk of getting HIV and AIDS. African American arrestees and arrestees reporting having attempted to reduce their sexual risks were less likely to perceive themselves at greater risk for getting AIDS. Implications for AIDS education and prevention are discussed.

  18. Falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gallacher, Rose

    2017-02-22

    What was the nature of the CPD activity, practice-related feedback and/or event and/or experience in your practice? The CPD article outlined the causes and consequences of falls for older patients. It discussed the falls risk assessment tools, and falls prevention measures.

  19. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  20. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment). PMID:27757402

  1. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  2. Nanotechnologies: Risk assessment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giacobbe, F.; Monica, L.; Geraci, D.

    2009-05-01

    The development and use of nanomaterials has grown widely in the last years. Hence, it is necessary to carry out a careful and aimed risk assessment for the safety of the workers. The objective of this research is a specific assessment model finalized to the workplaces where the personnel work manipulating nanoparticles. This model mainly takes into account the number of exposed workers, the dimensions of particles, the information found in the safety data sheets and the uncertainties about the danger level coming from the exposition to nanomaterials. The evaluation algorithm considers the normal work conditions, the abnormal (e.g. breakdown air filter) and emergency situations (e.g. package cracking). It has been necessary to define several risk conditions in order to quantify the risk by increasing levels ("low", "middle" and "high" level). Each level includes appropriate behavioural procedures. In particular for the high level, it is advisable that the user carries out urgent interventions finalized to reduce the risk level (e.g. the utilization of vacuum box for the manipulation, high efficiency protection PPE, etc). The model has been implemented in a research laboratory where titanium dioxide and carbon nanotubes are used. The outcomes taken out from such specific evaluation gave a risk level equal to middle.

  3. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  4. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  5. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  6. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Nigeria.

    PubMed

    1997-02-01

    The World Health Organization estimated that 2.2% of Nigeria's adult population was infected with HIV by the end of 1995. A 1993-94 sentinel surveillance report found a 3.8% HIV seroprevalence level among sexually active Nigerians sampled. HIV prevalence is rising in the country. Incidence and prevalence data are presented on HIV and AIDS in sections on antenatal clinics, HIV-1 and HIV-2, group variations, regional variations, age variations, prostitutes, and infection by blood. The Nigerian government has projected that there could be 7 million people infected with HIV in the country by the year 2000. Background is presented on the economy, living standards, health, and population. Vulnerability is then considered with regard to population mobility, drug trafficking, the vulnerability of women, the international sex trade, the military presence in Liberia, sexual attitudes, poverty, and ignorance. The responses of the government and the domestic nongovernment sector are then presented followed by description of external assistance from the World Bank, the US Agency for International Development, the British Overseas Development Agency, the World Health Organization, the private sector, and the European Commission.

  7. Social representations, risk behaviors and AIDS.

    PubMed

    Camargo, Brigido Vizeu; Bousfield, Andréa Barbará S

    2009-11-01

    This study's interest relies on adolescents' social representations of unprotected sex, more precisely on the relationship between the attitude towards the preservative and the reason attribution for its non use. 1386 secondary school students took part in the study, in the Brazilian cities of Florianópolis, Itajaí and Balneário Camboriú. In order to verify reasons attributed by the students, we focused on the sample that had sexual experiences without using the condom during last year. Data was analyzed with software ALCESTE, which showed three different classes of explanations for the non use of the preservative: the moment of the intercourse (unpredictable and incontrollable), trust in the partner and the option of the contraceptive pill, instead of the preservatives, in avoiding pregnancy. The students' attitudes towards the preservative are less favourable among those who maintain sexual intercourse with known people. The results revealed two representations of AIDS: one of trust in the partner and another of the experience with sex and the preservative--the first one gives sense to the adolescents' experiences with known sexual partners and the second, with less known sexual partners.

  8. Anti-class II antibodies in AIDS patients and AIDS-risk groups.

    PubMed Central

    de la Barrera, S; Fainboim, L; Lugo, S; Picchio, G R; Muchinik, G R; de Bracco, M M

    1987-01-01

    The specificity of anti-lymphocyte antibodies was evaluated in AIDS patients and in individuals at risk of AIDS [R-AIDS: male homosexuals (Ho) and haemophiliacs (He)]. Antibodies capable of inducing antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) against non-T cells and lymphoblastoid cell lines (P3HR-1K and Raji) were detected in AIDS patients and in R-AIDS with positive or negative human immune deficiency virus (HIV) serology. Anti-class II antigen specificity was revealed by experiments in which class II antigens on target cells were blocked with monoclonal anti-class II antibody (DA6,231) and the cytotoxic reaction induced by patient's sera was abolished. In contrast, ADCC was not impaired by preincubating the target cells with anti-class I monoclonal antibody (W6/32). Prevalence of antibodies to non-T cells was confirmed by standard C-mediated microlymphocytotoxicity. However, with this technique anti-T lymphocyte cytotoxicity was also observed in three AIDS patients with haemophilia. R-AIDS peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were also cytotoxic against autologous non-T cells, and lysis was slightly increased by sensitization of the target cells with autologous serum. In addition to ADCC and C-mediated cytotoxicity, the specificity of anti-lymphocyte antibodies was assayed by their ability to interfere the binding of fluorescein-labelled anti-class II (HLA-DR) and anti-class I (W6/32) monoclonal antibodies to PBMC, non-T cells, P3HR-1K and Raji. Anti-class II specificity was confirmed, and antibody titres tended to be higher in Ho than in He R-AIDS, using non-T cells and Raji as targets. Higher titres of anti-class II antibodies in the Ho group could play a role in the different susceptibility of HIV-infected Ho when compared to HIV (+) He to develop AIDS. PMID:3501399

  9. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  10. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  11. Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.

  12. Risk assessment for safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadlock, Charles R.; Glaser, Peter E.

    The application of probabilistic risk-assessment techniques to space missions is discussed, with a focus on the International Space Station. The types of hazards likely to be caused by random events; design, operational, and management errors; and intentional intervention are examined along with their secondary effects; and the top-level safety requirements defined by NASA are considered. It is suggested that such qualitative stipulations be supplemented with more quantitative measures such as used in the nuclear-power industry; the major features of such quantitative methods are reviewed.

  13. AIDS and behavioral change to reduce risk: a review.

    PubMed Central

    Becker, M H; Joseph, J G

    1988-01-01

    Published reports describing behavioral changes in response to the threat of AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) are reviewed. These studies demonstrate rapid, profound, but expectably incomplete alterations in the behavior of both homosexual/bisexual males and intravenous drug users. This is true in the highest risk metropolitan areas such as New York City and in areas with lower AIDS incidence. Risk reduction is occurring more frequently through the modification of sexual or drug-use behavior than through its elimination. In contrast to aggregate data, longitudinal descriptions of individual behavior demonstrate considerable instability or recidivism. Behavioral change in the potentially vulnerable heterosexual adolescent and young adult populations is less common, as is risk reduction among urban minorities. Reports of AIDS-related knowledge and attitudes generally parallel the pattern of behavioral changes. Nonetheless, few studies investigate the relationship of knowledge and attitudes to risk reduction. Future studies should provide much-needed information about the determinants as well as the magnitude of behavioral changes required to reduce the further spread of AIDS. PMID:3279837

  14. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    PubMed

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  15. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  16. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    PubMed

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  17. Limiting Cumulative HIV Viremia Copy-Years by Early Treatment Reduces Risk of AIDS and Death

    PubMed Central

    Walker, A. Sarah; Suthar, Amitabh B.; Sabin, Caroline; Bucher, Heiner C.; Jarrin, Inma; Moreno, Santiago; Perez-Hoyos, Santiago; Porter, Kholoud; Ford, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Background: Viremia copy-years (VCY), a time-updated measure of cumulative HIV exposure, predicts AIDS/death; although its utility in deciding when to start combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) remains unclear. We aimed to assess the impact of initiating versus deferring cART on risk of AIDS/death by levels of VCY both independent of and within CD4 cell count strata ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter. Methods: Using Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) data, we created a series of nested “trials” corresponding to consecutive months for individuals ≥16 years at seroconversion after 1995 who were cART-naive and AIDS-free. Pooling across all trials, time to AIDS/death by CD4, and VCY strata was compared in those initiating vs. deferring cART using Cox models adjusted for: country, sex, risk group, seroconversion year, age, time since last HIV-RNA, and current CD4, VCY, HIV-RNA, and mean number of previous CD4/HIV-RNA measurements/year. Results: Of 9353 individuals, 5312 (57%) initiated cART and 486 (5%) acquired AIDS/died. Pooling CD4 strata, risk of AIDS/death associated with initiating vs. deferring cART reduced as VCY increased. In patients with high CD4 cell counts, ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, there was a trend for a greater reduction for those initiating vs. deferring with increasing VCY (P = 0.09), with the largest benefit in the VCY ≥100,000 copy-years/mL group [hazard ratio (95% CI) = 0.41 (0.19 to 0.87)]. Conclusions: For individuals with CD4 ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, limiting the cumulative HIV burden to <100,000 copy-years/mL through cART may reduce the risk of AIDS/death. PMID:27116045

  18. Risks of Recreational Exposure to Waterborne Pathogens Among Persons With HIV/AIDS in Baltimore, Maryland

    PubMed Central

    Lemerman, Hanna B.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Moore, Richard D.; Graczyk, Thaddeus K.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives. We assessed the prevalence of recreational activities in the waterways of Baltimore, MD, and the risk of exposure to Cryptosporidium among persons with HIV/AIDS. Methods. We studied patients at the Johns Hopkins Moore Outpatient AIDS Clinic. We conducted oral interviews with a convenience sample of 157 HIV/AIDS patients to ascertain the sites used for recreational water contact within Baltimore waters and assess risk behaviors. Results. Approximately 48% of respondents reported participating in recreational water activities (fishing, crabbing, boating, and swimming). Men and women were almost equally likely to engage in recreational water activities (53.3% versus 51.3%). Approximately 67% (105 of 157) ate their own catch or that of friends or family members, and a majority (61%, or 46 of 75) of respondents who reported recreational water contact reported consumption of their own catch. Conclusions. Baltimoreans with HIV/AIDS are engaging in recreational water activities in urban waters that may expose them to waterborne pathogens and recreational water illnesses. Susceptible persons, such as patients with HIV/AIDS, should be cautioned regarding potential microbial risks from recreational water contact with surface waters. PMID:19372505

  19. Seismic risk evaluation aided by IR thermography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinzato, E.; Cadelano, G.; Bison, P.; Petracca, A.

    2009-05-01

    Conservation of buildings in areas at seismic risk must take prevention into account. The safeguard architectonic heritage is an ambitious objective, but a priority for planning programmes at varying levels of decision making. Preservation and restoration activities must be optimized to cover a vast and widespread historical and architectonic heritage present in many countries. Masonry buildings requires an adequate level of knowledge based on the importance of structural geometry, which may include the damage, details of construction and properties of materials. For identification and classification of masonry is necessary to find shape, type and size of the elements, texture, size of mortar joints, assemblage. The recognition can be done through a visual inspection of the surface of walls, which can be examined, where is not visible, removing a layer of plaster. Thermography is an excellent tool for a fast survey and collection of vital information for this purpose, but it is extremely important define a precise procedure in the development of more efficient monitoring tools. Thermography is a non-destructive method that allows recognizing the structural damage below plaster, detecting the presence of discontinuity in masonry, for added storeys, cavity, filled openings, and repairs. Furthermore, the fast identification of subsurface state allows to select areas where other methods either more penetrating or partially destructive have to be applied. The paper reports experimental results achieved in the mainframe of the European project RECES Modiquus. The main aim of the project is to improve methods, techniques and instruments for facing antiseismic options. Both passive and active thermographic techniques have been applied in different weather conditions and time schemes. A dedicated algorithm has been developed to enhance the visibility of wall bonding.

  20. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  1. AIDS knowledge and risk behaviors among culturally diverse women.

    PubMed

    Harrison, D F; Wambach, K G; Byers, J B; Imershein, A W; Levine, P; Maddox, K; Quadagno, D M; Fordyce, M L; Jones, M A

    1991-01-01

    This article reports results from a survey of women at risk for HIV infection. The sample (n = 620) included black (50.6%), white (28.7%), Hispanic (13.4%), and Haitian (5.0%) adult women from south Florida. Data concerning their AIDS knowledge, prevalence of risk behaviors, and perceived vulnerability are presented. Results indicate differences in certain knowledge areas and risk behaviors by race/ethnicity and a consistent incidence of unprotected sex with their main partners across all racial/ethnic groups.

  2. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data.

  3. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  4. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  5. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area.

  6. Does Computer-Aided Formative Assessment Improve Learning Outcomes?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hannah, John; James, Alex; Williams, Phillipa

    2014-01-01

    Two first-year engineering mathematics courses used computer-aided assessment (CAA) to provide students with opportunities for formative assessment via a series of weekly quizzes. Most students used the assessment until they achieved very high (>90%) quiz scores. Although there is a positive correlation between these quiz marks and the final…

  7. Decision Aiding in Europe: Assessment Report,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-05-26

    bodies and ship contours BRLT ratings, the decision-maker keeps produced in this way are quite striking, working on a goal point or reference point and...graphic functions but are multicriteria aspirations are often contra- not specifically European. Cinematic dictory and cannot be achieved simulta...above a certain threshold, then more of Hamburg. Starting from a bare minimum information and aiding are of little use, of assumptions (e.g., rigidity

  8. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  10. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  11. Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baert, K.; Francois, K.; de Meulenaer, B.; Devlieghere, F.

    A risk can be defined as a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard in food (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) . During a risk assessment, an estimate of the risk is obtained. The goal is to estimate the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring to humans due to possible exposure(s) to hazards. Risk assessment is a scientifically based process consisting of the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard characterization, (3) exposure assessment and (4) and risk characterization (Codex Alimentarius, 1999).

  12. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment.

  13. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  14. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    PubMed

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  15. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  16. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  17. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  18. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  19. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  20. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders.

  1. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  2. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  3. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  4. Cumulative risk and AIDS-orphanhood: interactions of stigma, bullying and poverty on child mental health in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Cluver, Lucie; Orkin, Mark

    2009-10-01

    Research shows that AIDS-orphaned children are more likely to experience clinical-range psychological problems. Little is known about possible interactions between factors mediating these high distress levels. We assessed how food insecurity, bullying, and AIDS-related stigma interacted with each other and with likelihood of experiencing clinical-range disorder. In South Africa, 1025 adolescents completed standardised measures of depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress. 52 potential mediators were measured, including AIDS-orphanhood status. Logistic regressions and hierarchical log-linear modelling were used to identify interactions among significant risk factors. Food insecurity, stigma and bullying all independently increased likelihood of disorder. Poverty and stigma were found to interact strongly, and with both present, likelihood of disorder rose from 19% to 83%. Similarly, bullying interacted with AIDS-orphanhood status, and with both present, likelihood of disorder rose from 12% to 76%. Approaches to alleviating psychological distress amongst AIDS-affected children must address cumulative risk effects.

  5. Risk assessment of dietary supplements.

    PubMed

    Boobis, Alan R

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment of dietary supplements shares many of the requirements of that for other chemicals, although there are some important differences. Amongst these is the essential nature of some nutrients so that it may be necessary to balance the need to minimize toxicological risk with the need to avoid deficiency. There may also be limitations on experimental design, in that high doses may not be achievable for nutritional reasons and available human data on toxicological hazard is likely to be very limited. Prior to embarking on a risk assessment the problem needs to be formulated. This involves risk assessors, risk managers and relevant stakeholders. A key decision is whether a risk assessment is necessary and, if so, what is required of the assessment. This will shape the nature and output of the assessment. Risk assessment itself is a scientific process comprising four steps, hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification involves determining the range of toxicological effects that might be caused by the substance, whilst hazard characterization establishes dose-response relationships, toxicological and species relevance of the findings and establishes health based guidance values. Exposure assessment involves predicting or measuring the level, pattern and duration of intake of the substance by exposed individuals. This may require dietary consumption data. Finally, risk characterization is the process whereby all of the prior information is integrated to reach conclusions in a form appropriate to the question posed. The nature of the output can take several different forms, and may be qualitative or quantitative. There are some cross-cutting issues in risk assessment, primarily on uncertainty and variability. The sources of uncertainty at each step of the risk assessment should be clearly identified and quantified to the extent possible. Variability requires that the risk assessment should

  6. Designing trials for pressure ulcer risk assessment research: methodological challenges.

    PubMed

    Balzer, K; Köpke, S; Lühmann, D; Haastert, B; Kottner, J; Meyer, G

    2013-08-01

    For decades various pressure ulcer risk assessment scales (PURAS) have been developed and implemented into nursing practice despite uncertainty whether use of these tools helps to prevent pressure ulcers. According to current methodological standards, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are required to conclusively determine the clinical efficacy and safety of this risk assessment strategy. In these trials, PURAS-aided risk assessment has to be compared to nurses' clinical judgment alone in terms of its impact on pressure ulcer incidence and adverse outcomes. However, RCTs evaluating diagnostic procedures are prone to specific risks of bias and threats to the statistical power which may challenge their validity and feasibility. This discussion paper critically reflects on the rigour and feasibility of experimental research needed to substantiate the clinical efficacy of PURAS-aided risk assessment. Based on reflections of the methodological literature, a critical appraisal of available trials on this subject and an analysis of a protocol developed for a methodologically robust cluster-RCT, this paper arrives at the following conclusions: First, available trials do not provide reliable estimates of the impact of PURAS-aided risk assessment on pressure ulcer incidence compared to nurses' clinical judgement alone due to serious risks of bias and insufficient sample size. Second, it seems infeasible to assess this impact by means of rigorous experimental studies since sample size would become extremely high if likely threats to validity and power are properly taken into account. Third, means of evidence linkages seem to currently be the most promising approaches for evaluating the clinical efficacy and safety of PURAS-aided risk assessment. With this kind of secondary research, the downstream effect of use of PURAS on pressure ulcer incidence could be modelled by combining best available evidence for single parts of this pathway. However, to yield reliable modelling

  7. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  8. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  9. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  10. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  11. Ineffectiveness of AIDS education and HIV antibody testing in reducing high-risk behaviors among injection drug users.

    PubMed Central

    Calsyn, D A; Saxon, A J; Freeman, G; Whittaker, S

    1992-01-01

    The effectiveness of education in reducing high-risk human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission behaviors was examined in 313 injection drug users. Involvement in high-risk behaviors was assessed via structured interview at study entry and 4 months following the intervention. Subjects were randomly assigned to (1) AIDS education, (2) AIDS education with optional HIV antibody testing, or (3) a wait list. The sample as a whole decreased its involvement in high-risk behaviors, but there were no significant differences as a function of experimental group assignment. PMID:1546776

  12. Japanese risk behaviors and their HIV/AIDS-preventive behaviors.

    PubMed

    Munakata, T; Tajima, K

    1996-04-01

    This study is to identify the risk behaviors of the Japanese that may lead to HIV infection and the behaviors that prevent such infection, as well as their background factors. Two behavioral surveys were conducted for the present study. (1) For international comparison on knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and practices (KABP) related to HIV/AIDS, we conducted a survey on a sample of 10,000 adults, randomly selected from a nationwide population in Japan; and (2) for sexual partner relation, we conducted a survey on a sample of 10,000 adults randomly selected from a population in five major cities of Japan. Our main findings include: (1) Most of the Japanese adult did not regard AIDS as a major threat in the area where they lived; (2) People in their twenties are too casual about "having sex without using a condom with someone they've met for the first time and know little about"; (3) Thirteen percent (19% male, 8% female) of those with a steady sex partner including a spouse, on average, had sex with 2.4 non-steady partners in the previous year; and (4) Only 25 percent used condoms always when they engaged in casual sex during the previous four weeks. These risk behaviors of the Japanese adults might lead to an explosive rise in the number of HIV-infected in the near future unless steps are taken immediately to prevent it.

  13. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  14. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: HALOGENATED SOLVENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Halogenated Solvent Degreasing Facilities. These assessments utilize existing models and d...

  15. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  16. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  17. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  18. How Effective Is Feedback in Computer-Aided Assessments?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gill, Mundeep; Greenhow, Martin

    2008-01-01

    Computer-Aided Assessments (CAAs) have been used increasingly at Brunel University for over 10 years to test students' mathematical abilities. Recently, we have focussed on providing very rich feedback to the students; given the work involved in designing and coding such feedback, it is important to study the impact of the interaction between…

  19. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  20. Groundwater abstraction pollution risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lytton, L; Howe, S; Sage, R; Greenaway, P

    2003-01-01

    A generic groundwater pollution risk assessment methodology has been developed to enable the evaluation and ranking of the potential risk of pollution to groundwater abstractions. The ranking can then be used to prioritise risk management or mitigation procedures in a robust and quantifiable framework and thus inform business investment decisions. The risk assessment consider the three components of the pollution transport model: source-pathway-receptor. For groundwater abstractions these correspond to land use (with associated pollutants and shallow subsurface characteristics), aquifer and the abstraction borehole. An hierarchical approach was chosen to allow the risk assessment to be successfully carried out with different quality data for different parts of the model. The 400-day groundwater protection zone defines the catchment boundary that form the spatial limit of the land use audit for each receptor. A risk score is obtained for each land use (potential pollution source) within the catchment. These scores are derived by considering the characteristics (such as load, persistence and toxicity) of all pollutants pertaining to each land use, their on-site management and the potential for the unsaturated subsurface to attenuate their effects in the event of a release. Risk scores are also applied to the aquifer characteristics (as pollutant pathway) and to the abstraction borehole (as pollutant receptor). Each risk score is accompanied by an uncertainty score which provides a guide to the confidence in the data used to compile the risk assessment. The application of the methodology has highlighted a number of problems in this type of work and results of initial case studies are being used to trial alternative scoring methods and a more simplified approach to accelerate the process of pollution risk assessment.

  1. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  2. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  3. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  4. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    PubMed

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  5. Rural Indian tribal communities: an emerging high-risk group for HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Naik, Eknath; Karpur, Arun; Taylor, Richard; Ramaswami, Balasubramaniam; Ramachandra, Seetharam; Balasubramaniam, Bindu; Galwankar, Sagar; Sinnott, John; Nabukera, Sarah; Salihu, Hamisu M

    2005-02-21

    BACKGROUND: Rural Indian tribes are anthropologically distinct with unique cultures, traditions and practices. Over the years, displacement and rapid acculturation of this population has led to dramatic changes in their socio-cultural and value systems. Due to a poor health infrastructure, high levels of poverty and ignorance, these communities are highly vulnerable to various health problems, especially, communicable diseases including HIV/AIDS. Our study sought to assess knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding sexuality, and the risk factors associated with the spread of HIV/AIDS and STDs among these communities. METHODS: A nested cross sectional study was undertaken as part of the on going Reproductive and Child Health Survey. A total of 5,690 participants age 18-44 were recruited for this study. Data were obtained through home interviews, and focused on socio-demographics, knowledge, attitudes and behaviors regarding sexuality, HIV/AIDS and other STDs. RESULTS: The study revealed that only 22% of adults had even heard of AIDS, and 18 % knew how it is transmitted. In addition, only 5% knew that STDs and AIDS were related to each other. AIDS awareness among women was lower compared to men (14% vs.30 %). Regarding sexual practices, 35% of the respondents reported having had extramarital sexual encounters, with more males than females reporting extramarital affairs. CONCLUSION: Lack of awareness, permissiveness of tribal societies for premarital or extra-marital sexual relationships, and sexual mixing patterns predispose these communities to HIV/AIDS and STD infections. There is a dire need for targeted interventions in order to curtail the increasing threat of HIV and other STDs among these vulnerable populations.

  6. The Influence of Knowing Someone with AIDS on Youth HIV Sexual Risk Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cederbaum, Julie A.; Marcus, Steven C.; Hutchinson, M. Katherine

    2007-01-01

    Research indicates that knowing someone with HIV/AIDS is associated with greater perceived risk of contracting HIV and changes in sexual risk behaviors. The current study with a sample of 1,172 examined whether knowing someone with HIV/AIDS influenced sexual risk communication and youth engagement in sexual intercourse using the Philadelphia…

  7. Does Using Nonnumerical Terms to Describe Risk Aid Violence Risk Communication? Clinician Agreement and Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilton, N. Zoe; Carter, Angela M.; Harris, Grant T.; Sharpe, Amilynn J. B.

    2008-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessments yield valid numerical information about violence risk, but research suggests that forensic clinicians prefer to communicate risk using nonnumerical information (i.e., verbal terms such as high risk). In an experimental questionnaire study, 60 forensic clinicians disagreed on the interpretation of nonnumerical terms, and…

  8. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  9. An assessment of global Internet-based HIV/AIDS media coverage: implications for United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS' Global Media HIV/AIDS initiative.

    PubMed

    Anema, A; Freifeld, C C; Druyts, E; Montaner, J S G; Hogg, R S; Brownstein, J S

    2010-01-01

    No studies to date have assessed the quantity of HIV/AIDS-related media on the Internet. We assessed the quantity of language-specific HIV/AIDS Internet-based news coverage, and the correlation between country-specific HIV/AIDS news coverage and HIV/AIDS prevalence. Internet-based HIV/AIDS news articles were queried from Google News Archives for 168 countries, for the year 2007, in the nine most commonly spoken languages worldwide. English, French and Spanish sources had the greatest number of HIV/AIDS-related articles, representing 134,000 (0.70%), 11,200 (0.65%) and 24,300 (0.49%) of all news articles, respectively. A strong association between country-specific HIV/AIDS news coverage and HIV/AIDS prevalence was found, Spearman's rank correlation: 0.6 (P < 0.001). Among countries with elevated HIV/AIDS prevalence (> or =10%), the volume of HIV/AIDS-specific media was highest in Swaziland (15.9%) and Malawi (13.2%), and lowest in South Africa (4.8%) and Namibia (4.9%). Increased media attention should be placed on countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence and limited HIV/AIDS-specific news coverage.

  10. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  11. Excess mortality in patients with AIDS in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy: Temporal changes and risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Puhan, Milo A.; Van Natta, Mark L.; Palella, Frank J.; Addessi, Adrienne; Meinert, Curtis

    2010-01-01

    Background Excess mortality has declined among HIV infected patients but without evidence of a decline in patients with AIDS. We assessed temporal changes in excess mortality and elucidated risk factors for excess mortality in patients with AIDS diagnosed in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods We included 1,188 patients of the Longitudinal Study of Ocular Complications in AIDS who were between 25-64 years old at enrollment and diagnosed with AIDS after 1995. We calculated excess mortality as the age-, year- and sex-adjusted difference in mortality rates between patients with AIDS and persons in the US general population, between 1999 and 2007, and used a relative survival model to identify risk factors for excess mortality. Results There were an average of 50 excess deaths (95% CI 44-57) per 1,000 person years between 1999 and 2007. Excess mortality almost halved with an annual decline of 8.0% per year (3.0-12.7 p=0.002) but remained high at 36 excess deaths per 1,000 person years in 2007. Viral load >400 vs. ≤400 copies/mL (risk ratio 3.4 [2.3-5.0]), CD4+ count <200 vs. ≥200 cells/μL (2.7 [1.9-3.9]) and cytomegalovirus retinitis (1.6 [1.2-2.1]) were the strongest risk factors for excess mortality. Conclusions Excess mortality among patients with AIDS was nearly halved in the HAART era and most strongly linked to stage of HIV disease. These results reflect the continuing improvements in AIDS management but also highlight that excess mortality remains about five times higher in patients with AIDS than in patients with HIV-infection but no AIDS. PMID:20825306

  12. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  13. AIDS Education: Reaching Populations at Higher Risk. Report to the Chairman, Committee on Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. Program Evaluation and Methodology Div.

    At the request of the United States Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, the General Accounting Office (GAO) assessed ways in which education might help to prevent Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) among three populations at relatively high risk: intravenous drug users, minority communities, and youth. GAO identified lessons learned…

  14. Risk for cancer among people living with AIDS, 1997-2012: the São Paulo AIDS-cancer linkage study.

    PubMed

    Tanaka, Luana F; Latorre, Maria R D O; Gutierrez, Eliana B; Curado, Maria P; Froeschl, Guenter; Heumann, Christian; Herbinger, Karl-Heinz

    2017-01-04

    Previous studies have reported an increased risk for certain types of cancer in the HIV-infected population. The aim of this study was to assess the risk for cancer in people with AIDS (PWA) in comparison with the general population in São Paulo (Brazil), between 1997 and 2012. A population-based registry linkage study was carried out to assess the risk for cancer, using a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) approach. A total of 480 102 person-years, of which 337 941 (70.4%) person-years were men, were included in the analysis. Around 2074 cancer cases were diagnosed among PWA, of which 51.0% were non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADC). The risk for AIDS-defining cancers and NADC in the male population with AIDS was significantly higher than that in the general population (SIR=27.74 and 1.87, respectively), as it was in the female population with AIDS compared with the general population (SIR=8.71 and 1.44, respectively). Most virus-related NADC occurred at elevated rates among PWA: anal cancer (SIR=33.02 in men and 11.21 in women), liver (SIR=4.35 in men and 4.84 in women), vulva and vagina (SIR=6.78 in women) and Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR=5.84 in men and 2.71 in women). Lung (SIR=2.24 in men and 2.60 in women) and central nervous system (SIR=1.92 in men and 3.48 in women) cancers also occurred at increased rates. Cancer burden among PWA in São Paulo was similar to that described in high-income countries such as the USA and Italy following the introduction of the highly active antiretroviral therapy. As coinfection with oncogenic viruses disproportionally affects this population, virus-related cancers accounted for a great share of excessive cases.

  15. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  17. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk.

    PubMed

    Manbeck, Harvey B; Hofstetter, Daniel W; Murphy, Dennis J; Puri, Virendra M

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess (1) how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2) from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3) whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated.

  18. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk

    PubMed Central

    Manbeck, Harvey B.; Hofstetter, Daniel W.; Murphy, Dennis J.; Puri, Virendra M.

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess (1) how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2) from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3) whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated. PMID:27303661

  19. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    PubMed Central

    Elwyn, Glyn; Dannenberg, Michelle; Blaine, Arianna; Poddar, Urbashi; Durand, Marie-Anne

    2016-01-01

    Objective Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. Design Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing interest policies and disclosure forms. Results We contacted 25 organisations likely to meet the inclusion criteria. 12 eligible organisations provided data. 11 organisations did not reply and 2 declined to participate. Most patient decision aid developers recognise the need to consider the issue of competing interests. Assessment processes vary widely and, for the most part, are insufficiently robust to minimise the risk of competing interests. Only half of the 12 organisations had competing interest policies. Some considered disclosure to be sufficient, while others imposed differing levels of exclusion. Conclusions Patient decision aid developers do not have a consistent approach to managing competing interests. Some have developed policies and procedures, while others pay no attention to the issue. As is the case for clinical practice guidelines, increasing attention will need to be given to how the competing interests of contributors of evidence-based publications may influence materials, especially if they are designed for patient use. PMID:27612542

  20. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  1. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  2. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  3. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  4. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  5. AIDS

    MedlinePlus

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/000594.htm HIV/AIDS To use the sharing features on this page, ... immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the virus that causes AIDS. When a person becomes infected with HIV, the ...

  6. The Relational-Behavior Model: A Pilot Assessment Study for At-Risk College Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chandler, Donald S., Jr.; Perkins, Michele D.

    2007-01-01

    This pilot study examined the relational-behavior model (RBM) as an HIV/AIDS assessment tool for at-risk college populations. Based on this theory, a survey was constructed to assess the six areas associated with HIV/AIDS prevention: personal awareness, knowledge deficiency, relational skills, HIV/STD stigmatization, community awareness, and…

  7. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  8. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  9. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  10. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  11. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  12. HIV/AIDS Knowledge Scores and Perceptions of Risk Among African American Students Attending Historically Black Colleges and Universities

    PubMed Central

    Sutton, Madeline Y.; Hardnett, Felicia P.; Wright, Pierre; Wahi, Sagina; Pathak, Sonal; Warren-Jeanpiere, Lari; Jones, Sandra

    2011-01-01

    Objective African American young adults are disproportionately affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic and often unaware of their personal risk for HIV. Historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) enroll 25% of college-educated African American young adults and can play an important role in HIV prevention. We examined HIV/AIDS knowledge of students at HBCUs to inform and strengthen our HIV prevention efforts at HBCUs. Methods African American undergraduate HBCU students completed online surveys assessing HIV/AIDS knowledge and behaviors, and we analyzed data to assess their knowledge and behaviors. Results A total of 1,051 of 1,230 surveys completed (85.4%) were analyzable. Eighty-two percent of students had average/high HIV knowledge scores. Seventy-nine percent of students surveyed perceived themselves to be at low risk for HIV infection; 64% of those who had at least two or more sex partners had not used a condom at last sex encounter. In the final model, significant independent effects were identified for average/high knowledge of HIV risk, including agreeing with assessing a potential partner's HIV risk by all of the five actions listed (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7, 4.3) and never using a needle to inject drugs (AOR=5.6, 95% CI 3.2, 9.7). Conclusions Educating students about effectively assessing sex partner risk will improve HIV knowledge and prevention efforts at HBCUs. PMID:21886325

  13. Assessing business responses to HIV / AIDS in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Roberts, M; Wangombe, J

    1995-01-01

    A consulting firm conducted interviews with managers of 16 businesses in 3 Kenyan cities, representatives of 2 trade unions, focus groups with workers at 13 companies, and an analysis of financial/labor data from 4 companies. It then did a needs assessment. The business types were light industry, manufacturing companies, tourism organizations, transport firms, agro-industrial and plantation businesses, and the service industry. Only one company followed all the workplace policy principles recommended by the World Health Organization and the International Labor Organization. Six businesses required all applicants and/or employees to undergo HIV testing. All their managers claimed that they would not discriminate against HIV-infected workers. Many workers thought that they would be fired if they were--or were suspected to be--HIV positive. Lack of a non-discrimination policy brings about worker mistrust of management. 11 companies had some type of HIV/AIDS education program. All the programs generated positive feedback. The main reasons for not providing HIV/AIDS education for the remaining 5 companies were: no employee requests, fears that it would be taboo, and assumptions that workers could receive adequate information elsewhere. More than 90% of all companies distributed condoms. 60% offered sexually transmitted disease diagnosis and treatment. About 33% offered counseling. Four companies provided volunteer HIV testing. Almost 50% of companies received financial or other external support for their programs. Most managers thought AIDS to be a problem mainly with manual staff and not with professional staff. Almost all businesses offered some medical benefits. The future impact of HIV/AIDS would be $90/employee/year (by 2005, $260) due to health care costs, absenteeism, retraining, and burial benefits. The annual costs of a comprehensive workplace HIV/AIDS prevention program varied from $18 to $54/worker at one company.

  14. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  16. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  17. CART V: recent advancements in computer-aided camouflage assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Thomas; Müller, Markus

    2011-05-01

    In order to facilitate systematic, computer aided improvements of camouflage and concealment assessment methods, the software system CART (Camouflage Assessment in Real-Time) was built up for the camouflage assessment of objects in multispectral image sequences (see contributions to SPIE 2007-2010 [1], [2], [3], [4]). It comprises a semi-automatic marking of target objects (ground truth generation) including their propagation over the image sequence and the evaluation via user-defined feature extractors as well as methods to assess the object's movement conspicuity. In this fifth part in an annual series at the SPIE conference in Orlando, this paper presents the enhancements over the recent year and addresses the camouflage assessment of static and moving objects in multispectral image data that can show noise or image artefacts. The presented methods fathom the correlations between image processing and camouflage assessment. A novel algorithm is presented based on template matching to assess the structural inconspicuity of an object objectively and quantitatively. The results can easily be combined with an MTI (moving target indication) based movement conspicuity assessment function in order to explore the influence of object movement to a camouflage effect in different environments. As the results show, the presented methods contribute to a significant benefit in the field of camouflage assessment.

  18. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  19. Thinking about "Think Again" in Canada: assessing a social marketing HIV/AIDS prevention campaign.

    PubMed

    Lombardo, Anthony P; Léger, Yves A

    2007-06-01

    The Canadian "Think Again" social marketing HIV/AIDS prevention campaign, adapted from an American effort, encourages gay men to rethink their assumptions about their partners' HIV statuses and the risks of unsafe sex with them. To improve future efforts, existing HIV/AIDS prevention initiatives require critical reflection. While a formal evaluation of this campaign has been carried out elsewhere, here we use the campaign as a social marketing case study to illustrate its strengths and weaknesses, as a learning tool for other campaigns. After describing the campaign and its key results, we assess how it utilized central tenets of the social marketing process, such as formative research and the marketing mix. We then speak to the importance of theoretical influence in campaign design and the need to account for social-contextual factors in safer sex decision making. We conclude with a summary of the lessons learned from the assessment of this campaign.

  20. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  1. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  2. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  3. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  4. Does computer-aided formative assessment improve learning outcomes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannah, John; James, Alex; Williams, Phillipa

    2014-02-01

    Two first-year engineering mathematics courses used computer-aided assessment (CAA) to provide students with opportunities for formative assessment via a series of weekly quizzes. Most students used the assessment until they achieved very high (>90%) quiz scores. Although there is a positive correlation between these quiz marks and the final exam marks, spending time on the CAA component of the course was negatively correlated with final exam performance. Students across the ability spectrum reduced their time commitment to CAA in their second semester, with weaker students achieving lower quiz totals, but with more able students' quiz marks hardly affected. Despite this lower quiz performance, the weaker students still improved their final exam marks in the second semester.

  5. A Brief Assessment for HIV Risk: The TCU HVHP Form

    PubMed Central

    Rowan, Grace A.; Joe, George W.; Lehman, Wayne E. K.; Knight, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Targeted HIV screens may help identify some risk-related concerns of drug-using offenders. The present study describes the Texas Christian University HIV/Hepatitis Risk Assessment (TCU HVHP) form, a 19-item self-report instrument measuring HIV and hepatitis risks based on a sample (N = 1,056) of offenders in eight prisons. Principal components analysis indicated four scales (Injection Risk, Condom Attitudes, Sex Risk, and AIDS Concern) with reliable psychometric properties with coefficient α reliabilities ranging from .72 to .88. Concurrent validities indicated the four scales were related to motivation for treatment, level of drug use, psychosocial functioning, and criminal thinking, although the patterns varied by gender. The TCU HVHP Form should be attractive to programs needing a brief assessment measuring HIV risk behaviors, attitudes toward condom use, and concerns about acquiring and transmitting HIV. PMID:27302708

  6. Applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.J.; Chapman, J.R.; Follen, S.M.; O'Regan, P.J. )

    1991-05-01

    This report provides a summary of potential and actual applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technology and insights. Individual applications are derived from the experiences of a number of US nuclear utilities. This report identifies numerous applications of PRA techniques beyond those typically associated with PRAs. In addition, believing that the future use of PRA techniques should not be limited to those of the past, areas of plant operations, maintenance, and financial resource allocation are discussed. 9 refs., 3 tabs.

  7. Risk assessment for pulmonary resection.

    PubMed

    Brunelli, Alessandro

    2010-01-01

    Risk assessment for pulmonary resection must include a preliminary cardiac evaluation. Patients deemed at prohibitive cardiac risk should be evaluated and treated as per American Heart Association/American Society of Cardiology guidelines. Those with low cardiac risk or with optimized treatment can proceed with pulmonary assessment. A systematic measurement of lung carbon monoxide diffusing capacity is recommended. In addition, predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second should not be used alone for patient selection because it is not an accurate predictor of complications, particularly in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The use of exercise testing should be emphasized. Low-technology tests, such as stair climbing, can be used whenever a formal cardiopulmonary exercise test is not readily available. However, in case of suboptimal performance (ie, <22 m in the stair-climbing test) patients should be referred to cardiopulmonary exercise testing with measurement of Vo(2max) for a better definition of their aerobic reserve. A Vo(2max) less than 10 mL/kg/min (or <35% of predicted) indicates a high risk for major lung resection.

  8. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  9. AIDS: Are Children at Risk? ERIC Digest 16.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    ERIC Clearinghouse on Teacher Education, Washington, DC.

    Lack of knowledge and misinformation about Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), a fatal disease with no cure or vaccine, has caused widespread public concern. Education is an effective way to reduce fears and prevent the spread of the disease. Public school personnel must have accurate information about AIDS in order to make suitable…

  10. Evaluation of an AIDS Prevention Program for "At Risk" Parolees.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wexler, Harry K.; And Others

    Surveys of the nation's jail and prison populations suggest that about 75% have used illicit drugs at one time or another. Incidence rates for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) cases among prison inmates is much higher in correctional systems than in the population as a whole. In this study an AIDS prevention and education program for…

  11. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    PubMed

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  12. High-risk behaviors among adult men and women in Botswana: implications for HIV/AIDS prevention efforts.

    PubMed

    Keetile, Mpho

    2014-01-01

    The government of Botswana has been spending a lot of money in the prevention, treatment, care and support for HIV/AIDS patient for decades. This paper uses data from the third Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS III) to explore high-risk behaviors of adults and how they affect government efforts to stop the spread of HIV/AIDS. The objective of this paper is to fill in the gap on the assessment of high-risk behaviors associated with HIV/AIDS and their implications on HIV/AIDS prevention efforts. A nationally representative sample of 10,159 men and women aged 20-64 years who had successfully completed the BAIS III individual questionnaire were used in the study. Both descriptive and binary logistic regression analyses were used for analysis. Crude odds ratios were obtained from gross effects model while adjusted odds ratios (AOR) were obtained from the net effects model. Statistically significant association was observed between multiple current partners and alcohol consumption (AOR = 1.5), drug abuse (AOR = 1.7), transactional sex (AOR = 2.6) and intergenerational sex (AOR = 1.07). Furthermore, statistically significant association was seen for inconsistent condom use and having tested for HIV (AOR = 1.5). These results show a worrying tendency that despite government's efforts to stop the spread of HIV/AIDS, adults in Botswana continue to indulge in high-risk behaviors. Therefore, any programs and policies on HIV/AIDS should first target these high-risk behaviors.

  13. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  14. The association between HIV/AIDS-related knowledge and perception of risk for infection: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Ndugwa Kabwama, Steven; Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele

    2015-11-01

    This systematic review tries to elucidate the association between what people know about HIV/AIDS and how they perceive their risk of infection. The initial search for articles yielded 1,595 abstracts, 16 of which met the inclusion criteria. Five studies found a positive correlation, four reported a negative correlation and seven found no association between knowledge and risk perception. It was found that the existing psychometrically sound measure of HIV/AIDS risk perception had not been used in any of the studies. The context in which the risk is assessed is pivotal to whether an association between knowledge and the perceived risk is found. Biases in judgement such as optimistic bias, psychological distancing, anchoring bias and overconfidence also explain how knowledge may fail to predict risk perception. It was concluded that the association between HIV/AIDS knowledge and risk perception might follow a continuum from positive to no association and finally to negative. The hypothesis, however, still needs to be studied further.

  15. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  16. Risk assessment for neurobehavioral toxicity

    SciTech Connect

    McMillan, D.E.

    1987-12-01

    A study of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC) found neurobehavioral toxicity to be one of the areas where almost no data are available for the assessment of toxicity. Using the NAS/NRC report and a data base from the American Conference of Government Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH), an estimate of the number of neurobehavioral toxins in commercial chemicals can be made. Although the assumption made in making such a calculation may be invalid, the exercise suggests that the number of neurobehavioral toxins may be quite large. There does seem to be general agreement as to what type of neurobehavioral test procedures are appropriate for regulatory purposes. Select committees have consistently recommended the use of test batteries that include schedule-controlled behavior, motor activity, and neuropathological examination following in vivo perfusion, for regulatory purposes. Alkyltin data developed from such a battery were applied to the risk assessment model employed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in their calculations of acceptable daily intake. Using this test battery and the EPA risk assessment model, the acceptable daily intake calculated is of the same order of magnitude as the total limit values established by the ACGIH. A number of special issues in neurobehavioral toxicity also are discussed, including the definition of adverse neurobehavioral toxic effect, species extrapolation, correlation of behavior and neuropathology, alternative methods, and quality of life issues.

  17. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real…

  18. Response by High Risk Groups to HIV/AIDS Educational Outreach: A Focus Group Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smiley, Nina Feldman

    Twelve focus groups were conducted to determine how various at-risk groups would respond to Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) educational outreach approaches presented via print (posters and comic book), television, and radio media. Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding HIV and AIDS were also…

  19. Investigating the Impact of Financial Aid on Student Dropout Risks: Racial and Ethnic Differences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Rong; DesJardins, Stephen L.

    2010-01-01

    This study focuses on the differences in college student dropout behavior among racial/ethnic groups. We employ event history methods and data from the Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS) and National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) surveys to investigate how financial aid may differentially influence dropout risks among these student…

  20. Reaching High-Risk Youth through Model AIDS Education Programs: A Case by Case Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Center for Population Options, Washington, DC.

    This report evaluates the High Risk Youth Demonstration Project, which is predicated on the idea that youth-serving agencies (YSAs) can be key sources for adolescent AIDS education. When the Center for Population Options (CPO) conceptualized a strategy for bringing AIDS education to underserved youth, it was responding to the following three areas…

  1. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  2. Why Breast Cancer Risk by the Numbers Is Not Enough: Evaluation of a Decision Aid in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Numerate Women

    PubMed Central

    Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham; Aguirre, Alejandra; Smalletz, Cindy; David, Raven; Crew, Katherine

    2015-01-01

    Background Breast cancer risk assessment including genetic testing can be used to classify people into different risk groups with screening and preventive interventions tailored to the needs of each group, yet the implementation of risk-stratified breast cancer prevention in primary care settings is complex. Objective To address barriers to breast cancer risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention strategies in primary care settings, we developed a Web-based decision aid, RealRisks, that aims to improve preference-based decision-making for breast cancer prevention, particularly in low-numerate women. Methods RealRisks incorporates experience-based dynamic interfaces to communicate risk aimed at reducing inaccurate risk perceptions, with modules on breast cancer risk, genetic testing, and chemoprevention that are tailored. To begin, participants learn about risk by interacting with two games of experience-based risk interfaces, demonstrating average 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk. We conducted four focus groups in English-speaking women (age ≥18 years), a questionnaire completed before and after interacting with the decision aid, and a semistructured group discussion. We employed a mixed-methods approach to assess accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk and acceptability of RealRisks. The qualitative analysis of the semistructured discussions assessed understanding of risk, risk models, and risk appropriate prevention strategies. Results Among 34 participants, mean age was 53.4 years, 62% (21/34) were Hispanic, and 41% (14/34) demonstrated low numeracy. According to the Gail breast cancer risk assessment tool (BCRAT), the mean 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk were 1.11% (SD 0.77) and 7.46% (SD 2.87), respectively. After interacting with RealRisks, the difference in perceived and estimated breast cancer risk according to BCRAT improved for 5-year risk (P=.008). In the qualitative analysis, we identified potential barriers to adopting risk

  3. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  4. Patterns of blood donations among individuals at risk for AIDS, 1984.

    PubMed

    Seage, G R; Barry, M A; Landers, S; Silvia, A M; Lamb, G A

    1988-05-01

    Of 978 respondents to an anonymous questionnaire targeted to reach homosexuals in Boston during October 1984, 88 (9 per cent) reported recent blood donation. When compared to non-recent donors, high-risk respondents who were recent blood donors were younger, less open about their sexual preference, and more likely to obtain their information about AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) from television and newspapers. These results suggest that particular subgroups of the population at risk for AIDS would benefit from expanded educational programs.

  5. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  6. Classification of transmission risk in the national HIV/AIDS surveillance system.

    PubMed

    Lee, Lisa M; McKenna, Matthew T; Janssen, Robert S

    2003-01-01

    Risk behavior information is essential for allocating resources and developing effective HIV prevention strategies. Over time, transmission risk information on HIV/AIDS cases has been less likely to be reported to the national surveillance system. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) invited approximately 30 experts in HIV/AIDS and behavioral research from state and local health departments, academia, community-based organizations, and the CDC to participate in a consultation in December 2001 to generate ideas on how best to deal with the lack of risk data. The group was charged with providing recommendations on methods for classifying and reporting risk information and for identifying methods and sources for improving ascertainment of transmission risk behaviors for individuals infected with HIV. This report describes the recommendations and the effects of implementing such recommended procedures on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance database.

  7. Classification of transmission risk in the national HIV/AIDS surveillance system.

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Lisa M.; McKenna, Matthew T.; Janssen, Robert S.

    2003-01-01

    Risk behavior information is essential for allocating resources and developing effective HIV prevention strategies. Over time, transmission risk information on HIV/AIDS cases has been less likely to be reported to the national surveillance system. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) invited approximately 30 experts in HIV/AIDS and behavioral research from state and local health departments, academia, community-based organizations, and the CDC to participate in a consultation in December 2001 to generate ideas on how best to deal with the lack of risk data. The group was charged with providing recommendations on methods for classifying and reporting risk information and for identifying methods and sources for improving ascertainment of transmission risk behaviors for individuals infected with HIV. This report describes the recommendations and the effects of implementing such recommended procedures on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance database. PMID:12941852

  8. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  9. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    PubMed

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  10. AIDS awareness and attitudes among Yemeni young people living in high-risk areas.

    PubMed

    Al-Serouri, A W; Anaam, M; Al-Iryani, B; Al Deram, A; Ramaroson, S

    2010-03-01

    Despite te low rate of infection in Yemen, there are concerns about the possible spread of HIV among high-risk and vulnerable groups. A community-based study was made in 2005 of AIDS awareness and attitudes among 601 young people aged 15-24 years from low-income, high-risk neighbourhoods in Aden. Young people lacked proper information about HIV/AIDS. Although 89% had heard of AIDS, fewer (46%) could name 3 ways of transmission or 3 ways to avoid infection (28%). Misconceptions about modes of transmissions were prevalent and many young people believed that they faced little or no risk. There were intolerant attitudes towards AIDS patients. About half the young people knew that prostitution and homosexuality existed in their area.

  11. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  12. Who profits from visual aids: overcoming challenges in people's understanding of risks [corrected].

    PubMed

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Galesic, Mirta

    2010-04-01

    Many people have difficulties grasping numerical concepts that are prerequisites for understanding treatment risk reduction. Visual aids have been proposed as a promising method for enhancing comprehension. In a survey of probabilistic, nationally representative samples in two different countries (United States and Germany), we compared the effectiveness of adding different types of visual aids (icon arrays and bar graphs representing either affected individuals only or the entire population at risk) to the numerical information in either an absolute or a relative risk reduction format. We also analyzed whether people's numeracy and graphical literacy skills affected the efficacy of the visual aids. Our results showed large improvements in accuracy both when icon arrays and when bar graphs were added to numerical information. Highest increases were achieved when the visual aids depicted the entire population at risk. Importantly, visual aids were most useful for the participants who had low numeracy but relatively high graphical literacy skills. Building on previous research showing that problems with understanding numerical information often do not reside in people's minds, but in the representation of the problem, our results show that visual aids help to modify incorrect expectations about treatment risk reduction. Our results have important implications for medical practice.

  13. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  14. Effect of Statin Therapy in Reducing the Risk of Serious Non-AIDS-Defining Events and Nonaccidental Death

    PubMed Central

    Overton, E. T.; Kitch, D.; Benson, C. A.; Hunt, P. W.; Stein, J. H.; Smurzynski, M.; Ribaudo, H. J.; Tebas, P.

    2013-01-01

    Background. Excessive inflammation persists despite antiretroviral treatment. Statins decrease cardiovascular (CV) disease risk by reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and inflammation. We performed an exploratory analysis to evaluate whether statin therapy decreased risk of non-AIDS-defining events and nonaccidental death. Methods. A total of 3601 subjects not on a statin from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group Longitudinal Linked Randomized Trials cohort were included. Outcome was time to first clinical event (CV event, renal or hepatic disease, incident diabetes, thrombotic/embolic event, nontraumatic fracture, non-AIDS-defining malignancy, serious bacterial infection, or nonaccidental death); event categories were also analyzed separately. Inverse probability of treatment and censoring weighted Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the causal statin effect. Differential statin effects by baseline covariates were evaluated. Results. Over 15 135 person-years (PY) of follow-up, 484 subjects initiated statins; 616 experienced an event (crude event rate, 4.4/100 PY on a statin and 4.1/100 PY not on a statin); the unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI], .91–1.50). In a final weighted model, the adjusted HR (AHR) was 0.81 (95% CI, .53– 1.24). Results for other clinical events were similar, except for malignancies (AHR, 0.43 [95% CI, .19–.94]) and bacterial infections (AHR, 1.30 [95% CI, .64–2.65]). No differential statin effects by baseline covariates were detected. Conclusions. Although statin therapy was not associated with a reduction in time to all non-AIDS-defining event or nonaccidental death, it was associated with a statistically significant 57% reduction in non-AIDS-defining malignancies. Confirmatory studies are needed to evaluate statin-associated reduction in risk of cancer and non-AIDS-associated morbidities. PMID:23386631

  15. Assessment of Lecture Strategy with Different Teaching Aids

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Manoj; Kumar, Jayballabh; Kumar, Gaurav; Kapoor, Sangeeta

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives: Medical/dental colleges in Northern India cater to students with diverse backgrounds, mother tongues, levels of comprehending English, and intelligence levels. This study was conducted to identify lecture strategy and teaching aid best suited for North Indian dental and medical students. It was conducted in two parts – 1. Survey of teachers’ and students’ opinion to obtain their preferences in teaching-learning practices followed in a conventional lecture, and 2. Comparison of students’ performances after a single trial lecture with different groups of students, using different teaching aids (TAs). Materials and Methods: Opinions of 33 faculty teaching first year dental/ medical students and 506 volunteer students (320 female) were compiled. Students were divided into four groups. A single trial lecture was held with each group (on the same topic, using identical lesson plan, by the same teacher) using a different teaching aid with each group. Lecture strategy was designed according to students’ preferences (as obtained from opinion survey) regarding language of instruction and the number of mental breaks. TAs used with different groups were chalk and board (C&B), PowerPoint (PPT), overhead projector (OHP), and a combination of C&B and PPT. Pre- and post-tests using multiple choice questions were conducted with each group. Results of post-test questionnaire and feedback from faculty attending the lecture were assessed for students’ satisfaction and attentiveness in all four groups. Results: Survey results indicated that although 97.6% students believed they had good/fair proficiency in English, 83.6% preferred being taught in a combination of English and Hindi; 44.3% students preferred C&B, 40.1% preferred PPT and 15.6% preferred the use of OHP as TA. After conducting a trial lecture with different TAs with each group, more than 90% students expressed satisfaction with the TA used for that group. Significantly better

  16. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects.

  17. The roles of labor migrants' wives in HIV/AIDS risk and prevention in Tajikistan.

    PubMed

    Golobof, Alexandra; Weine, Stevan; Bahromov, Mahbat; Luo, Jing

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to build formative knowledge regarding labor migrants' wives' knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding HIV/AIDS risk and protection that would inform developing innovative HIV prevention strategies. This was a collaborative ethnography in Tajikistan that included minimally structured interviews and focused field observations with 30 Tajik wives in Dushanbe married to Tajik male migrant workers currently working in Moscow. The results documented the wives' concerns over their husbands' safety in Moscow and the difficulties of living without husbands. In a male-dominated society, gender norms limit the wives' abilities to protect themselves and their husbands from HIV/AIDS. They have some awareness of HIV/AIDS, but limited abilities to speak about sexual activity, HIV/AIDS, condoms, and HIV testing. Wives do not use condoms with their husbands and depend upon their husband's role as their protector. Wives often turn for support to their "circle of friends" or to a primary care nurse for support, but seldom do these relationships focus on preventing HIV/AIDS. To respond to HIV/AIDS risks amongst the wives of Tajik male migrant workers in Moscow, preventive interventions could build upon migrants' wives' role as the primary family caregiver and their existing sources of social support from women's circles and nurses. The overall intervention strategy could be to expand their role as family caregivers to include HIV/AIDS protection, through enhancing their HIV/AIDS knowledge and prevention skills and negotiation strategies with their husbands.

  18. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  19. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  20. Using visual aids to improve communication of risks about health: a review.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Okan, Yasmina; Cokely, Edward T

    2012-01-01

    Recent research has shown that patients frequently experience difficulties understanding health-relevant numerical concepts. A prominent example is denominator neglect, or the tendency to pay too much attention to numerators in ratios (e.g., number of treated patients who died) with insufficient attention to denominators (e.g., overall number of treated patients). Denominator neglect can lead to inaccurate assessments of treatment risk reduction and thus can have important consequences for decisions about health. Here, we reviewed a series of studies investigating (1) different factors that can influence patients' susceptibility to denominator neglect in medical decision making--including numerical or language-related abilities; (2) the extent to which denominator neglect can be attenuated by using visual aids; and (3) a factor that moderates the effectiveness of such aids (i.e., graph literacy). The review spans probabilistic national U.S. and German samples, as well as immigrant (i.e., Polish people living in the United Kingdom) and undergraduate samples in Spain. Theoretical and prescriptive implications are discussed.

  1. Using Visual Aids to Improve Communication of Risks about Health: A Review

    PubMed Central

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Okan, Yasmina; Cokely, Edward T.

    2012-01-01

    Recent research has shown that patients frequently experience difficulties understanding health-relevant numerical concepts. A prominent example is denominator neglect, or the tendency to pay too much attention to numerators in ratios (e.g., number of treated patients who died) with insufficient attention to denominators (e.g., overall number of treated patients). Denominator neglect can lead to inaccurate assessments of treatment risk reduction and thus can have important consequences for decisions about health. Here, we reviewed a series of studies investigating (1) different factors that can influence patients' susceptibility to denominator neglect in medical decision making—including numerical or language-related abilities; (2) the extent to which denominator neglect can be attenuated by using visual aids; and (3) a factor that moderates the effectiveness of such aids (i.e., graph literacy). The review spans probabilistic national U.S. and German samples, as well as immigrant (i.e., Polish people living in the United Kingdom) and undergraduate samples in Spain. Theoretical and prescriptive implications are discussed. PMID:22629146

  2. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  3. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  4. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  5. Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

  6. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  7. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

  8. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

  9. Health Costs of Wealth Gains: Labor Migration and Perceptions of HIV/AIDS Risks in Mozambique

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Agadjanian, Victor; Arnaldo, Carlos; Cau, Boaventura

    2011-01-01

    The study employs survey data from rural Mozambique to examine how men's labor migration affects their non-migrating wives' perceptions of HIV/AIDS risks. Using a conceptual framework centered on tradeoffs between economic security and health risks that men's migration entails for their left-behind wives, it compares women married to migrants and…

  10. Physicians' perception of personal risk of HIV infection and AIDS through occupational exposure.

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, K M; Eakin, J M; Skinner, H A; Kelner, M; Shapiro, M

    1990-01-01

    Physicians' response to acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is poorly understood and often attributed to fear of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection through occupational exposure. We surveyed 268 physicians from three geographic regions in North American with different specialties and responsibilities for HIV-positive patients. An important difference was found between the published risk and the physicians' perceived risk of infection after a single occupational exposure. Almost half of the respondents stated that they feared contracting AIDS more than other diseases. The physicians who perceived themselves to be at high physical risk were more likely than the others to report that AIDS had changed the way they interact with their patients (r = 0.26, p less than 0.001). No relation was found between the perception of physical risk and the number of HIV-infected patients (r = -0.07, p = 0.15). However, the perception of social risk showed a small inverse correlation (r = -0.15, p less than 0.02), in which the physicians with more HIV-infected patients reported less concern about negative social consequences. The physicians who perceived themselves to be at high personal risk were more likely than the others to report that surgeons have the right to refuse patients who do not wish to undergo HIV antibody testing (r = -0.16, p less than 0.01 for physical risk; r = -0.29, p less than 0.001 for social risk). Multiple regression analyses indicated that physicians' perception of physical risk was not related to age or sex but was modestly related to income source. The perception of social risk was related to sex and income source. Physicians' perception of personal risk is a crucial, yet often unacknowledged, component of the fight against AIDS. Our findings suggest that lack of attention to this issue is seriously compromising initiatives designed to facilitate physician participation in AIDS care. PMID:2207904

  11. Issues in risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The volume is the first in a series to be prepared by the Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology (CRAM) in the National Research Council's Board on Enviromental Studies and Toxicology. Three issues related to risk assessment are addressed here: use of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in animal bioassays for carcinogenicity, the two-state model of carcinogenesis, and a paradigm for ecologic risk assessment.

  12. Risk Assessment or Assessment of Risk? Developing an Evidence-Based Approach for Primary Producers of Leafy Vegetables To Assess and Manage Microbial Risks.

    PubMed

    Monaghan, J M; Augustin, J C; Bassett, J; Betts, R; Pourkomailian, B; Zwietering, M H

    2017-03-28

    Over the last 10 years, some high-profile foodborne illness outbreaks have been linked to the consumption of leafy greens. Growers are required to complete microbiological risk assessments (RAs) for the production of leafy crops supplied either to retail or for further processing. These RAs are based primarily on qualitative judgements of hazard and risks at various stages in the production process but lack many of the steps defined for quantitative microbiological RAs by the Codex Alimentarius Commission. This article is based on the discussions of an industry expert group and proposes a grower RA approach based on a structured qualitative assessment, which requires all decisions to be based on evidence and a framework for describing the decision process that can be challenged and defended within the supply chain. In addition, this article highlights the need for evidence to be more easily available and accessible to primary producers and identifies the need to develop hygiene criteria to aid validation of proposed interventions.

  13. Risk of HIV dementia and opportunistic brain disease in AIDS and zidovudine therapy

    PubMed Central

    Baldeweg, T.; Catalan, J.; Gazzard, B.

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To determine the incidence of HIV dementia and opportunistic brain disease in AIDS relative to the use of licensed antiretoviral medication (zidovudine, zalcitabine, didanosine, and stavudine).
METHOD—Medical records were evaluated retrospectively in a longitudinal cohort of 1109 patients with AIDS during the period 1991-4. Treatment groups were defined by start and duration of zidovudine treatment, the drugs used most often during this period were: (a) no zidovudine, (b) zidovudine before AIDS, (c) zidovudine before and after AIDS, and (d) zidovudine used in AIDS. Main outcome measures were cumulative incidence and survival from AIDS to onset of HIV dementia, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), cerebral toxoplasmosis, and primary CNS lymphoma.
RESULTS—Risk of brain disease including HIV dementia and opportunistic brain disease was reduced in patients who started zidovudine before AIDS and continued in AIDS (relative risk (RR) 0.55, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.36-0.84) as well as zidovudine initiated in AIDS (RR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17-0.45) compared with untreated subjects. Treatment effects were not constant over time, decreasing by 14%-32% for each six months of follow up. This was supported by unadjusted incidences across groups stratified by duration of zidovudine use, indicating reduced risk with treatment for up to 18 months but not with longer duration of use of zidovudine. Other antiretroviral drugs had no significant effect, although these were used by only 14% of patients in this cohort.
CONCLUSION—The time limited but effective neuroprotection offered by zidovudine monotherapy for <18 months suggests that non-specific mechanisms of cerebral immunological defence may benefit from antiretroviral treatment. Due to the limitations of a retrospective study these findings require confirmation and further investigation in the context of current combination drug treatments.

 PMID:9667558

  14. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  15. The effects of HIV/AIDS intervention groups for high-risk women in urban clinics.

    PubMed Central

    Kelly, J A; Murphy, D A; Washington, C D; Wilson, T S; Koob, J J; Davis, D R; Ledezma, G; Davantes, B

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE. This study reports the results of a behavior change intervention offered to women at high risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection seen in an urban primary health care clinic. METHODS. Participants were 197 women randomly assigned to either an HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) risk reduction group or a comparison group. Women in the HIV/AIDS intervention group attended five group sessions focusing on risk education; skills training in condom use, sexual assertiveness, problem solving, and risk trigger self-management; and peer support for change efforts. Women in the comparison group attended sessions on health topics unrelated to AIDS. RESULTS. At the 3-month follow-up, women in the HIV/AIDS intervention group had increased in sexual communication and negotiation skills. Unprotected sexual intercourse had declined significantly and condom use had increased from 26% to 56% of all intercourse occasions. Women in the comparison group showed no change. CONCLUSIONS. Socially disadvantaged women can be assisted in reducing their risk of contracting HIV infection. Risk reduction behavior change interventions should be offered routinely in primary health care clinics serving low-income and high-risk patients. PMID:7998630

  16. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  17. Review of Multi-Criteria Decision Aid for Integrated Sustainability Assessment of Urban Water Systems - MCEARD

    EPA Science Inventory

    Integrated sustainability assessment is part of a new paradigm for urban water decision making. Multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) is an integrative framework used in urban water sustainability assessment, which has a particular focus on utilising stakeholder participation. Here ...

  18. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  19. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  20. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  1. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  2. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  4. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  5. Hegemonic Masculinity, HIV/AIDS Risk Perception, and Sexual Behavior Change Among Young People in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Ganle, John Kuumuori

    2016-05-01

    Among the youth in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, a paradoxical mix of adequate knowledge of HIV/AIDS and high-risk behavior characterizes their daily lives. Based on original qualitative research in Ghana, I explore in this article the ways in which the social construction of masculinity influences youth's responses to behavior change HIV/AIDS prevention interventions. Findings show that although awareness of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the risks of infection is very high among the youth, a combination of hegemonic masculinity and perceptions of personal invulnerability acts to undermine the processes of young people's HIV/AIDS risk construction and appropriate behavioral change. I argue that if HIV/AIDS prevention is to be effective and sustained, school- and community-based initiatives should be developed to provide supportive social spaces in which the construction of masculinity, the identity of young men and women as gendered persons, and perceptions of their vulnerability to HIV/AIDS infection are challenged.

  6. Assessing the trend of HIV/AIDS mortality rate in Asia and North Africa: an application of latent growth models.

    PubMed

    Zayeri, F; Talebi Ghane, E; Borumandnia, N

    2016-02-01

    Over the last 30 years, HIV/AIDS has emerged as a major global health challenge. This study evaluates the change of HIV/AIDS mortality rates in Asian and North African countries from 1990 to 2010 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. HIV/AIDS mortality rates were derived from the GBD database from 1990 to 2010, for 52 countries in Asia and North Africa. First, a Latent Growth Model was employed to assess the change in AIDS mortality rate over time in six different regions of Asia, and also the change in AIDS mortality rate over time for males and females in Asia and North Africa. Finally, Latent Growth Mixture Models (LGMMs) were applied to identify distinct groups in which countries within each group have similar trends over time. Our results showed that increase in mortality rate over time for males is about three times greater than for females. The highest and lowest trend of AIDS mortality rates were observed in South-East Asia and high-income Asia-Pacific regions, respectively. The LGMM allocated most countries in the South and South-East region into two classes with the highest trend of AIDS mortality rates. Although the HIV/AIDS mortality rates are decreasing in some countries and clusters, the general trend in the Asian continent is upwards. Therefore, it is necessary to provide programmes to achieve the goal of access to HIV prevention measures, treatment, care, and support for high-risk groups, especially in countries with a higher trend of AIDS mortality rates.

  7. Combination of sequential chemical extraction and modelling of dam-break wave propagation to aid assessment of risk related to the possible collapse of a roasted sulphide tailings dam.

    PubMed

    Pérez-López, Rafael; Sáez, Reinaldo; Alvarez-Valero, Antonio M; Miguel Nieto, José; Pace, Gaetano

    2009-10-15

    The Sotiel-Coronada abandoned mining district (Iberian Pyrite Belt) produced complex massive sulphide ores which were processed by flotation to obtain Cu, Zn and Pb concentrates. The crude pyrite refuses were roasted for sulphuric acid production in a plant located close to the flotation site, and waste stored in a tailing dam. The present study was focused on the measurements of flow properties, chemical characterization and mineralogical determination of the roasted pyrite refuses with the aim of assessing the potential environmental impact in case of dam collapse. Chemical studies include the determination of the total contaminant content and information about their bio-availability or mobility using sequential extraction techniques. In the hypothetical case of the tailing dam breaking up and waste spilling (ca. 4.54Mt), a high density mud flow would flood the Odiel river valley and reach both Estuary of Huelva (Biosphere Reserve by UNESCO, 1983) and Atlantic Ocean in matter of a couple of days, as it was predicted by numerical simulations of dam-break waves propagation through the river valley based on quasi-2D Saint-Venant equations. The total amount of mobile pollutants that would be released into the surrounding environment is approximately of 7.1.10(4)t of S, 1.6.10(4)t of Fe, 1.4.10(4)t of As, 1.2.10(4)t of Zn, 1.0.10(4)t of Pb, 7.4.10(3)t of Mn, 2.2.10(3)t of Cu, 1.5.10(2)t of Co, 36t of Cd and 17t of Ni. Around 90-100% of S, Zn, Co and Ni, 60-70% of Mn and Cd, 30-40% of Fe and Cu, and 5% of As and Pb of the mobile fraction would be easily in the most labile fraction (water-soluble pollutants), and therefore, the most dangerous and bio-available for the environment. This gives an idea of the extreme potential risk of roasted pyrite ashes to the environment, until now little-described in the scientific literature.

  8. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  9. Visual navigation aid for planetary UAV risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McPherson, C. A.; Bottkol, M. S.; Madison, R. W.; DeBitetto, P. A.; Young, M.

    2007-09-01

    Unlike the navigation problem of Earth operations, the precise navigation of a vehicle in a remote planetary environment presents a challenging problem for either absolute or relative navigation. There exist no GPS/INS solutions due to a lack of a GPS constellation, few or no accurately surveyed markers for use in terminal sensing measurements, and highly uncertain terrain elevation maps used by a TERCOM system. These, and other, issues prompted the investigation of the potential use of a visual navigation aid to supplement an Inertial Navigation System (INS) and radar altimeter suite of a planetary airplane for the purpose of the identifying the potential benefit of visual measurements to the overall navigation solution. The mission objective used in the study, described herein, requires the precise relative navigation of the airplane over an uncertain terrain. Unlike the previously successful employment of visual aided navigation on the MER1 landing vehicle, the mission objectives require that the airplane traverse a precise flight pattern over the objective terrain at relatively low altitudes for hundreds of kilometers, and is more akin to a velocity correlator application than a terminal fix problem. The results of the investigation indicate that a good knowledge of aircraft altitude is required in order to obtain the desired performance for velocity estimate accuracy. However, it was determined that the direction of the velocity vector can be obtained without a high accuracy height estimate. The characterization of the dependency of velocity estimate accuracy upon the variety of factors involved in the process is the primary focus of this report. This report describes the approach taken in this investigation to both define the architecture of the solution for minimal impact upon payload requirements, and the analysis of the potential gains to the overall navigation problem. Also described as part of the problem definition are the initially assumed contribution

  10. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  11. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  12. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  13. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  14. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  15. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  16. Environmental risk assessment for start-up of a new consolidated maintenance facility

    SciTech Connect

    Heubach, J.G.; Wise, J.A.

    1992-10-01

    This paper summarizes a case study of a risk assessment for a consolidated maintenance facility (CMF). An interdisciplinary team was formed to identify and evaluate showstopper'' risks which could delay or prevent ontime, safe, and economical operation of a CMF and to recommend ways to mitigate the risks. The risk assessment was constrained by time, information, incomplete plans and facilities, and a concomitant major transition in manufacturing process, organization, and technology. Working within these constraints, the team integrated convergent findings into estimates of high, medium, and low risks based on the subjective likelihood of occurrence and predicted consequences of potential hazard events. The team also made risk-reduction recommendations for facility detail design and production start-up. The findings and recommendations reported in this study focus on risks related to environmental design and workstation ergonomics. Findings from the risk assessment effort should aid other constrained risk assessments and applied research on similar facilities.

  17. Risk for AIDS in multiethnic neighborhoods in San Francisco, California. The population-based AMEN Study.

    PubMed Central

    Fullilove, M T; Wiley, J; Fullilove, R E; Golden, E; Catania, J; Peterson, J; Garrett, K; Siegel, D; Marin, B; Kegeles, S

    1992-01-01

    To examine the actual and potential spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) from an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epicenter to surrounding neighborhoods, we studied the prevalence of the viral infection and AIDS risk behaviors from 1988 to 1989 in a representative sample of unmarried whites, African Americans, and Hispanics living in San Francisco. We surveyed 1,770 single men and women aged 20 to 44 years (a 64% response rate) in a random household sample drawn from 3 neighborhoods of varying geographic and cultural proximity to the Castro District where the San Francisco epidemic began. Of 1,369 with blood tests, 69 (5%) had HIV antibodies; all but 5 of these reported either homosexual activity (32% HIV-positive; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 23%, 41%), injection drug use (5% HIV-positive; CI = 1%, 14%), or both (59% HIV-positive; CI 42%, 74%). Homosexual activity was more common among white men than among African-American or Hispanic men, but the proportion of those infected was similar in the 3 races. Both the prevalence of homosexually active men and the proportion infected were much lower in the 2 more outlying neighborhoods. Risk behaviors in the past year for acquiring HIV heterosexually--sex with an HIV-infected person or homosexually active man or injection drug user, unprotected sexual intercourse with more than 4 partners, and (as a proxy) having a sexually transmitted disease--were assessed in 1,573 neighborhood residents who were themselves neither homosexually active men nor injection drug users. The prevalence of reporting at least 1 of these risk behaviors was 12% overall, and race-gender estimates ranged from 5% among Hispanic women to 21% among white women. We conclude that in San Francisco, infection with HIV is rare among people who are neither homosexually active nor injection drug users, but the potential for the use spread of infection is substantial, as 12% of this group reported important risk behaviors for acquiring the

  18. Psychological first aid following trauma: implementation and evaluation framework for high-risk organizations.

    PubMed

    Forbes, David; Lewis, Virginia; Varker, Tracey; Phelps, Andrea; O'Donnell, Meaghan; Wade, Darryl J; Ruzek, Josef I; Watson, Patricia; Bryant, Richard A; Creamer, Mark

    2011-01-01

    International clinical practice guidelines for the management of psychological trauma recommend Psychological First Aid (PFA) as an early intervention for survivors of potentially traumatic events. These recommendations are consensus-based, and there is little published evidence assessing the effectiveness of PFA. This is not surprising given the nature of the intervention and the complicating factors involved in any evaluation of PFA. There is, nevertheless, an urgent need for stronger evidence evaluating its effectiveness. The current paper posits that the implementation and evaluation of PFA within high risk organizational settings is an ideal place to start. The paper provides a framework for a phasic approach to implementing PFA within such settings and presents a model for evaluating its effectiveness using a logic- or theory-based approach which considers both pre-event and post-event factors. Phases 1 and 2 of the PFA model are pre-event actions, and phases 3 and 4 are post-event actions. It is hoped that by using the Phased PFA model and evaluation method proposed in this paper, future researchers will begin to undertake the important task of building the evidence about the most effective approach to providing PFA in high risk organizational and community disaster settings.

  19. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  20. Production Risk Assessing Methodology (PRAM).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-05-01

    the price up five-fold which translates to $30.M. On the optimistic side,this same commodity market could bring the price down to one half of the price...57 PWMIW- A recognitinn that past product ion probl ems represent f ut ri , producto ; risk areas suggested an empirically developed risk structure

  1. Knowledge, attitude, the perceived risks of infection and sources of information about HIV/AIDS among pregnant women in an urban population of Delhi.

    PubMed

    Singh, Saudan; Fukuda, Hideki; Ingle, G K; Tatara, Kozo

    2002-03-01

    Knowledge, attitude, perceived risks of infection and sources of information about HIV/AIDS were assessed among pregnant women. Large proportion of study subjects was illiterate (44.5%) and least was graduate or more (3.5%). Subjects mainly belonged to middle (46.1%) and lower socioe-conomic status (53.8%). Only 39.3% of subjects heard of AIDS. There was rising trend on heard of AIDS with various educational levels. Only 45% subjects responded correctly that AIDS was not transmitted by mosquito bite. Lower level of correct knowledge was also observed among all educational groups and it was lowest 21.1% among illiterate. Senior secondary or graduate or more educated responded 100% correct to question that one could get AIDS by having sex with prostitutes while illiterate responded 78.9% correctly. More educated had higher correct knowledge on modes of transmission compared to illiterate and less educated. Among various groups of educational status, the relationship of correct knowledge on modes of transmission was statistically significant. Of those heard of AIDS 79.3% perceived threat of AIDS to the health of local community. Mass media was source of information on HIV/AIDS among 86.3% out of which television was most popular source (74.6%). Large proportion of subjects (48.6%) had preference to get information on AIDS from doctors.

  2. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  3. Cardiovascular risk assessment: a global perspective.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Dong; Liu, Jing; Xie, Wuxiang; Qi, Yue

    2015-05-01

    An important strategy in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the early identification of high-risk individuals. Effective implementation of a strategy to identify these individuals in a clinical setting is reliant on the availability of appropriate CVD risk-assessment models and guideline recommendations. Several well-known models for CVD risk assessment have been developed and utilized in the USA and Europe, but might not be suitable for use in other regions or countries. Very few reports have discussed the development of risk-assessment models and recommendations from a global perspective. In this Review, we discuss why risk-assessment methods developed from studies in one geographical region or ethnic population might not be suitable for other regions or populations, and examine the availability and characteristics of predictive models in areas beyond the USA or Europe. In addition, we compare the differences in risk-assessment recommendations outlined in CVD clinical guidelines from developed and developing countries, and consider their potential effect on clinical practice. This overview of cardiovascular risk assessment from a global perspective can potentially guide low-to-middle-income countries in the development or validation of their own CVD risk-assessment models, and the formulation of recommendations in their own clinical guidelines according to local requirements.

  4. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  5. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  6. Tools Available to Communities for Conducting Cumulative Exposure and Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper summarizes and assesses over 70 tools that could aid with gathering information and taking action on environmental issues related to community-based cumulative risk assessments (CBCRA). Information on tool use, development and research needs, was gathered from websites...

  7. Patterns of HIV/AIDS, STI, Substance Abuse and Hepatitis Risk among Selected Samples of Latino and African-American Youth in Washington, DC

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edberg, Mark C.; Collins, Elizabeth; Harris, Meredith; McLendon, Hedda; Santucci, Patricia

    2009-01-01

    In order to address evolving risk factors among youth in Washington, DC (District of Columbia), with respect to HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), substance abuse, and hepatitis, a targeted, community-needs assessment was conducted through a partnership between the Department of Prevention and Community Health at George Washington…

  8. Guidelines for Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These Guidelines set forth principles and procedures to guide EPA scientists in evaluating environmental contaminants that may pose neurotoxic risks, and inform Agency decision makers and the public about these procedures.

  9. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  10. Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

    PubMed

    Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

    2016-12-01

    A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action.

  11. Prospective actuarial risk assessment: a comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes.

    PubMed

    Rettenberger, Martin; Matthes, Anna; Boer, Douglas P; Eher, Reinhard

    2010-04-01

    This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

  12. Individualized Risk of Surgical Complications: An Application of the Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment Score

    PubMed Central

    Mlodinow, Alexei S.; Khavanin, Nima; Hume, Keith M.; Simmons, Christopher J.; Weiss, Michael J.; Murphy, Robert X.; Gutowski, Karol A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Risk discussion is a central tenet of the dialogue between surgeon and patient. Risk calculators have recently offered a new way to integrate evidence-based practice into the discussion of individualized patient risk and expectation management. Focusing on the comprehensive Tracking Operations and Outcomes for Plastic Surgeons (TOPS) database, we endeavored to add plastic surgical outcomes to the previously developed Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) score. Methods: The TOPS database from 2008 to 2011 was queried for patients undergoing breast reconstruction. Regression models were constructed for the following complications: seroma, dehiscence, surgical site infection (SSI), explantation, flap failure, reoperation, and overall complications. Results: Of 11,992 cases, 4439 met inclusion criteria. Overall complication rate was 15.9%, with rates of 3.4% for seroma, 4.0% for SSI, 6.1% for dehiscence, 3.7% for explantation, 7.0% for flap loss, and 6.4% for reoperation. Individualized risk models were developed with acceptable goodness of fit, accuracy, and internal validity. Distribution of overall complication risk was broad and asymmetric, meaning that the average risk was often a poor estimate of the risk for any given patient. These models were added to the previously developed open-access version of the risk calculator, available at http://www.BRAscore.org. Conclusions: Population-based measures of risk may not accurately reflect risk for many individual patients. In this era of increasing emphasis on evidence-based medicine, we have developed a breast reconstruction risk assessment calculator from the robust TOPS database. The BRA Score tool can aid in individualizing—and quantifying—risk to better inform surgical decision making and better manage patient expectations. PMID:26090295

  13. The RARE model of rapid HIV risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bates, Christopher J; Singer, Merrill; Needle, Richard; Trotter, Robert T

    2007-08-01

    The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on minority communities called for interventions to stem the increase in new HIV infections and identify HIV-positive individuals for referral to care and treatment services. The Rapid Assessment, Response and Evaluation (RARE) project was designed to provide highly affected communities with a tool that would quickly identify conditions that fuel new infections and serve as barriers to HIV-positive individuals getting HIV testing, care, and treatment. RARE brought indigenous community health outreach workers and key community-level stakeholders together to advocate for the transfer of findings into programmatic and policy responses in places where high risk behaviors were practiced. This article describes RARE's qualitative methods that captured the voice of those most affected by the HIV/AIDS threat and identified critical insights and dynamics about factors that lead to HIV infections and those that can move positive individuals into care and treatment.

  14. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  15. An experiential program to reduce AIDS risk among female sex partners of injection-drug users.

    PubMed

    Rhodes, F; Wolitski, R J; Thornton-Johnson, S

    1992-11-01

    This article describes the development and implementation of an acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) intervention program for female sex partners of male injection-drug users. Four psychoeducational workshops were designed to motivate personal risk reduction, provide participants with necessary cognitive and behavioral skills, and enhance participants' perceived ability to enact positive changes in their lives. The development of the workshop modules was guided by traditional theories of health behavior change and social learning. Also included in the intervention are referral and advocacy services, personal risk reduction counseling, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibody testing. Preliminary results indicate that the program has made a significant impact on the AIDS risk of participants--91 percent of women who completed the program reported that they had made positive changes in their lives to reduce their risk of HIV infection.

  16. HIV risk behaviours and determinants among people living with HIV/AIDS in Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Thanh, Duong Cong; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Tuan, Nguyen Anh; Thang, Bui Duc; Long, Nguyen Thanh; Fylkesnes, Knut

    2009-12-01

    There is a potentially high risk of HIV spreading from people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted a cross-sectional study to examine HIV risk behaviours and their determinants among people living with HIV/AIDS. Eighty-two percent had been sexually active. Sex with multiple partners was reported by 20% and consistent condom use by about one third. More than half of the participants (52%) reported having injected drugs during the previous month, and 35% of those had shared needles and syringes. Voluntary HIV testing and having received condoms or injection equipment from the local HIV prevention program, were found to be significantly associated with fewer HIV risk behaviours. Having learned recently about personal HIV status, multiple sex partners, low educational attainment and young age were found to be associated with higher HIV risk behaviours. Giving high priority to targeted preventive and support programmes is likely to be a highly cost-effective strategy.

  17. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  18. Evaluating social outcomes of HIV/AIDS interventions: a critical assessment of contemporary indicator frameworks

    PubMed Central

    Mannell, Jenevieve; Cornish, Flora; Russell, Jill

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Contemporary HIV-related theory and policy emphasize the importance of addressing the social drivers of HIV risk and vulnerability for a long-term response. Consequently, increasing attention is being given to social and structural interventions, and to social outcomes of HIV interventions. Appropriate indicators for social outcomes are needed in order to institutionalize the commitment to addressing social outcomes. This paper critically assesses the current state of social indicators within international HIV/AIDS monitoring and evaluation frameworks. Methods We analyzed the indicator frameworks of six international organizations involved in efforts to improve and synchronize the monitoring and evaluation of the HIV/AIDS response. Our analysis classifies the 328 unique indicators according to what they measure and assesses the degree to which they offer comprehensive measurement across three dimensions: domains of the social context, levels of change and organizational capacity. Results and discussion The majority of indicators focus on individual-level (clinical and behavioural) interventions and outcomes, neglecting structural interventions, community interventions and social outcomes (e.g. stigma reduction; community capacity building; policy-maker sensitization). The main tool used to address social aspects of HIV/AIDS is the disaggregation of data by social group. This raises three main limitations. Indicator frameworks do not provide comprehensive coverage of the diverse social drivers of the epidemic, particularly neglecting criminalization, stigma, discrimination and gender norms. There is a dearth of indicators for evaluating the social impacts of HIV interventions. Indicators of organizational capacity focus on capacity to effectively deliver and manage clinical services, neglecting capacity to respond appropriately and sustainably to complex social contexts. Conclusions Current indicator frameworks cannot adequately assess the social

  19. Enhancing the Ecological Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H

    2008-01-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest (1) thorough peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and (2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it

  20. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Butler, J.P.

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often by as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per=kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessment for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  1. Sociocultural Determinants of HIV/AIDS Risk and Service Use among Immigrant Latinos in North Carolina

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowden, W. Patrick; Rhodes, Scott D.; Wilkin, Aimee M.; Jolly, Christine P.

    2006-01-01

    Latinos in the United States have been disproportionately affected by the intersecting epidemics of HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. Using a community-based participatory research approach to problem identification, the objective of this study is to explore sociocultural determinants of HIV/AIDS risk and service use among immigrant Latino…

  2. Assessing Risk in Graphically Presented Financial Series.

    PubMed

    Sobolev, Daphne; Harvey, Nigel

    2016-12-01

    It has been argued that traders use their natural sensitivity to the fractal properties of price graphs to assess risk and that they are better able to do this when given price change as well as price level information. This approach implies that risk assessments should be higher when the Hurst exponents are lower, that this relationship should be stronger in the presence of price change information and that risk assessment should depend more strongly on the Hurst exponent than on the standard deviation of the series. Participants in Experiment 1 decided which of two assets was riskier by inspecting graphs of their price series. Graphs with lower Hurst exponents were selected only by those who were less emotionally stable and hence more sensitive to risk. However, when both price series and price change series were presented, the assets with lower Hurst exponents were selected by all participants. In a second experiment, participants were given both price level and price change series for a number of assets and rated the risk of trading in each one. Ratings depended more strongly on Hurst exponents than on other measures of volatility. They also depended on indicators of potential loss. Human risk assessment deviates from the way that risk is measured in modern finance theory: it requires integration of information relevant to both uncertainty and loss aversion, thereby imposing high attentional demands on traders. These demands may impair risk assessment but they can be eased by adding displays of price change information.

  3. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  4. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Wendland, W.G. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance.

  5. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  6. USE OF TOXICOGENOMICS DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The goal of this project is to address the question, “Can existing toxicogenomics (TG) data improve Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chemical health or risk assessments?” Although genomics data promises to impact multiple areas of science, medicine, law, and policy, there are only a few areas where genomics data currently has application (e.g., biomarkers of disease). As the technology continues to advance, EPA will need to prepare for genomics data availability and submission by: 1) identifying areas of risk assessment where such data may be particularly useful; 2) developing acceptance criteria for inclusion of toxicogenomics data in risk assessment; and 3) developing approaches for the use of toxicogenomics in risk assessment. These needs will likely require an iterative and collaborative research process between risk assessors and scientists (inside and outside the Agency). At the NCEA sponsored Genomics and Risk Assessment Colloquium in 2003, one of the recommendations was to conduct case studies that could provide a practical attempt to incorporate currently available toxicogenomics data that would illuminate issues and the methods development. This project is responds to this recommendation. To address the question of whether TG data can improve health risk assessments, a case study will be performed in which TG data for one chemical will be incorporated qualitatively within the hazard characterization step of a recent or ongoing EPA chemical he

  7. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

  8. Assessing the risks of pesticide residues to consumers: recent and future developments.

    PubMed

    Harris, C A; Renfrew, M J; Woolridge, M W

    2001-12-01

    Assessing exposure of consumers to pesticide residues is an area of regulatory science that has rapidly developed over the last decade. From simplistic, deterministic models calculating lifetime exposure for adults only, assessment procedures have diversified so that more realistic estimates of long term exposures for adults, schoolchildren, toddlers and infants and short term exposures for adults and toddlers (who generally bound the more extreme consumer patterns) are now carried out. The final assessment of risk still remains a simplistic numeric comparison against hazard assessment based on a wide range of toxicity studies incorporating the appropriate safety or uncertainty factors. As development of risk assessments continues, the use of probabilistic models is becoming an invaluable information tool for quantitative risk management and aiding assessment of cumulative exposure. This paper examines the recent developments in risk assessment and consumer perception of the risks of pesticide residues, and speculates where the future developments in these areas may lie.

  9. ASSESSING WATERBORNE RISKS: AN INTRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Information in this article can help readers evaluate the results of epidemiologic studies of

    waterborne disease risks. It is important that readers understand the various epidemiologic study

    designs, their strengths and limitations, and potential biases. Terminolog...

  10. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  11. Evaluation and Assessment of a Biomechanics Computer-Aided Instruction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington, N.; Parnianpour, M.; Fraser, J. M.

    1999-01-01

    Describes the Biomechanics Tutorial, a computer-aided instructional tool that was developed at Ohio State University to expedite the transition from lecture to application for undergraduate students. Reports evaluation results that used statistical analyses and student questionnaires to show improved performance on posttests as well as positive…

  12. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  13. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

  14. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  15. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  16. How We Assess Risks to Pollinators

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has a new risk assessment framework for bees as part of its regulatory decision-making process for all pesticides, which relies on a tiered process, focuses on major routes of exposure, and distinguishes different types of pesticide treatment.

  17. TOXICOLOGICAL BASIS FOR DRINKING WATER RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is charged with protecting human health and the environment. Environmental protection decisions are often guided by risk assessments that are used to develop regulatory policy and other related guidance. Historically, in environmen...

  18. Guidelines for Reproductive Toxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These guidelines discuss the scientific basis for concern about exposure to agents that cause reproductive toxicity and describe the principles and procedures to be followed in conducting risk assessments for reproductive toxicity.

  19. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  20. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  1. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  2. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John; Mitchell, Roger; Binning, David; Meszaros, Jenny

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  3. Biosecurity Risk Assessment Methodology (BioRAM) v. 2.0

    SciTech Connect

    CASKEY, SUSAN; GAUDIOSO, JENNIFER; SALERNO, REYNOLDS

    2009-06-08

    Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction Dept (SNL/IBTR) has an ongoing mission to enhance biosecurity assessment methodologies, tools, and guise. These will aid labs seeking to implement biosecurity as advocated in the recently released WHO's Biorisk Management: Lab Biosecurity Guidance. BioRAM 2.0 is the software tool developed initially using the SNL LDRD process and designed to complement the "Laboratory Biosecurity Risk Handbook" written by Ren Salerno and Jennifer Gaudioso defining biosecurity risk assessment methodologies.

  4. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  5. [Risk assessment in upper limb overload].

    PubMed

    Martinelli, R; Casilli, A; Fanelli, C; Pizzuti, S; Tarquini, M; Tobia, L; Paoletti, A

    2007-01-01

    One of the most important factors of the work-related musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremities (WMSDs) is the biomechanical overload. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the possibility to predict the upper limb repetitive stress, according to risk assessment procedures. In order to this aim, we gathered clinical-anamnestic data and risk assessment considerations of a cohort of workers in a car industry.

  6. Medical Devices; Neurological Devices; Classification of the Computerized Cognitive Assessment Aid for Concussion. Final order.

    PubMed

    2016-12-06

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is classifying the Computerized Cognitive Assessment Aid for Concussion into class II (special controls). The special controls that will apply to the device are identified in this order and will be part of the codified language for the computerized cognitive assessment aid for concussion's classification. The Agency is classifying the device into class II (special controls) in order to provide a reasonable assurance of safety and effectiveness of the device.

  7. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  8. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  9. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  10. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor destroyed by biological a...

  11. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    PubMed

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  12. Knowledge, personal risk and experiences of HIV/AIDS among people with disabilities in Swaziland.

    PubMed

    Yousafzai, Aisha K; Dlamini, Phindile J; Groce, Nora; Wirz, Sheila

    2004-09-01

    Although there has been research focused on the disabling consequences of HIV/AIDS, there has been very little documented information about HIV/AIDS for individuals with disability prior to infection. There is evidence to suggest that people with disabilities face inequalities in accessing health information and services. The aim of this study was to explore whether disabled and non-disabled young adults in Swaziland perceive HIV/AIDS similarly. A qualitative study using focus-group discussions was conducted. Four focus groups were conducted with a total of 56 non-disabled adults (aged 16-29 years) and four focus groups were conducted with a total of 32 adults with either a physical or hearing disability (aged 18-32 years). The focus-group schedule explored knowledge about HIV/AIDS, personal risk and experiences of health-seeking practices. Information and awareness about HIV/AIDS was good in both rural and urban areas among the non-disabled participants, who obtained their information from a wide range of sources. In contrast, participants with disability, who obtained information about HIV/AIDS from a limited range of sources, lacked knowledge about HIV/AIDS and were misinformed about modes of transmission. Women with disabilities described experiences of sexual exploitation and abuse, which was perceived to be higher among disabled women than their non-disabled peers; they felt this was because disabled women were perceived to be 'free' from the HIV virus by non-disabled men. Further research is necessary to enable HIV/AIDS programmes to address the specific needs of people with disabilities.

  13. HIV/AIDS knowledge and occupational risk in primary care health workers from Chile

    PubMed Central

    Valdés, Baltica Cabieses; Lagunas, Lilian Ferrer; Villarroel, Luis Antonio; Acosta, Rosina Cianelli; Miner, Sarah; Silva, Margarita Bernales

    2014-01-01

    Objective To explore the relationship between knowledge level and occupational risk exposure to HIV/AIDS in primary care health workers. Methodology Analytical cross-sectional study. 720 health workers from Santiago answered a survey about HIV/AIDS that included: knowledge level (appropriate, inappropriate), occupational risk (with or without risk), and control variables (age, gender, health center, education and marital status). Descriptive and association analysis were performed. Odds Ratio (OR) was estimated through simple and multiple regressions logistics. Results 58.7% of the participants reported HIV occupational risk. 63.8% of the participants from the exposed group reported an appropriate level of knowledge, versus 36.1% of the non-exposed group (Adjusted OR of 3.1, IC95%OR: 2.0-4.8, p<0.0001). Technicians and cleaning staff reported a lower proportion of appropriate level of knowledge compared to the employees with college education (p<0.0001). Conclusion The level of HIV/AID occupational risk is directly associated with the level of knowledge of the disease. PMID:25284913

  14. Changes over calendar time in the risk of specific first AIDS-defining events following HIV seroconversion, adjusting for competing risks

    PubMed Central

    Babiker, Abdel; Darbyshire, Janet; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Porter, Kholoud; Rezza, Giovanni; Walker, Sarah A; Beral, Valerie; Coutinho, Roel; Del Amo, Julia; Gill, Noël; Lee, Christine; Meyer, Laurence; Tyrer, Freya; Dabis, François; Thiébaut, Rodolphe; Lawson-Aye, Sylvie; Boufassa, Faroudy; Hamouda, Osamah; Fischer, Klaus; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Touloumi, Giota; Hatzakis, Angelos; Karafoulidou, Anastasia; Katsarou, Olga; Brettle, Ray; Del Romero, Jorge; Prins, Maria; Van Benthem, Birgit; Kirk, Ole; Pederson, Court; Hernández Aguado, Idelfonso; Pérez-Hoyos, Santiago; Eskild, Anne; Bruun, Johan N; Sannes, Mette; Sabin, Caroline; Johnson, Anne M; Phillips, Andrew N; Francioli, Patrick; Vanhems, Philippe; Egger, Mathias; Rickenbach, Martin; Cooper, David; Kaldor, John; Ashton, Lesley; Vizzard, Jeanette; Muga, Roberto; Day, Nicholas E; De Angelis, Daniela

    2002-01-01

    Background Although studies have reported large reductions in the risks of AIDS and death since the introduction of potent anti-retroviral therapies, few have evaluated whether this has been similar for all AIDS-defining diseases. We wished to evaluate changes over time in the risk of specific AIDS-defining diseases, as first events, using data from individuals with known dates of HIV seroconversion. Methods Using a competing risks proportional hazards model on pooled data from 20 cohorts (CASCADE), we evaluated time from HIV seroconversion to each first AIDS-defining disease (16 groups) and to death without AIDS for four calendar periods, adjusting for exposure category, age, sex, acute infection, and stratifying by cohort. We compared results to those obtained from a cause-specific hazards model. Results Of 6941, 2021 (29%) developed AIDS and 437 (6%) died without AIDS. The risk of AIDS or death remained constant to 1996 then reduced; relative hazard = 0.89 (95% CI: 0.77–1.03); 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81–1.01); and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.28–0.37) for 1979–1990, 1991–1993, and 1997–2001, respectively, compared to 1994–1996. Significant risk reductions in 1997–2001 were observed in all but two AIDS-defining groups and death without AIDS in a competing risks model (with similar results from a cause-specific model). There was significant heterogeneity in the risk reduction across events; from 96% for cryptosporidiosis, to 17% for death without AIDS (P < 0.0001). Conclusion These findings suggest that studies reporting a stable trend for particular AIDS diseases over the period 1979–2001 may not have accounted for the competing risks among other events or lack the power to detect smaller trends. PMID:12435766

  15. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  16. Stigma, sexual risks, and the war on drugs: Examining drug policy and HIV/AIDS inequities among African Americans using the Drug War HIV/AIDS Inequities Model.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Jelani; Jackson, Trinidad

    2016-11-01

    The relationship between drug policy and HIV vulnerability is well documented. However, little research examines the links between racial/ethnic HIV disparities via the Drug War, sexual risk, and stigma. The Drug War HIV/AIDS Inequities Model has been developed to address this dearth. This model contends that inequitable policing and sentencing promotes sexual risks, resource deprivation, and ultimately greater HIV risk for African-Americans. The Drug War also socially marginalizes African Americans and compounds stigma for incarcerated and formerly incarcerated persons living with HIV/AIDS. This marginalization has implications for sexual risk-taking, access to health-promoting resources, and continuum of care participation. The Drug War HIV/AIDS Inequities Model may help illuminate mechanisms that promote increased HIV vulnerability as well as inform structural intervention development and targeting to address racial/ethnic disparities.

  17. Correlates of sexual risk behaviors among high school students in Colorado: analysis and implications for school-based HIV/AIDS programs.

    PubMed

    Nkansah-Amankra, Stephen; Diedhiou, Abdoulaye; Agbanu, Harry L K; Harrod, Curtis; Dhawan, Ashish

    2011-08-01

    Objectives of this study are to examine correlates of antecedent sexual risk exposures associated with HIV/AIDS infection among adolescents participating in the 2005 Colorado Youth Behavioral Risk Survey (CYBRS), and to determine gender differences associated with these exposures since previous studies have produced mixed findings. Variables assessing these relationships were drawn from CYBRS, 2005. We used χ2 to assess bivariate relationships and multinomial logistic regression to evaluate associations among dependent variables (sexual risk behaviors, age at first sex, and number of sexual partners in the past 3 months) and independent variables (in-school HIV/AIDS education, use of illegal substances, physically forced sex, and alcohol use). We found no significant effect of having received in-school HIV/AIDS education on all outcome measures. Compared with females, males were more likely to initiate sex at a relatively younger age, report unprotected sex with multiple partners, and drink alcohol before sexual intercourse. Among females, using 2 illegal substances increased the odds of early sexual debut by 12 times, while using ≥3 substances increased the same odds to 44-fold. Likewise, binge drinking was also associated with higher odds of having multiple partners. Hispanic ethnicity and physically forced sex variables were consistently associated with high risk sexual behaviors, early sexual initiation, and increased number of sexual partners. Efforts to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic among adolescents may need to focus on targeted interventions aimed at addressing gender- and racial/ethnic-specific risk exposures among this population group, including risk behaviors linked with lifetime physically forced sex. The need to re-examine the role of in-school HIV prevention programs to build adequate competencies among students, parents and community leaders to reduce risk exposures associated with HIV/AIDS infection among youth is emphasized.

  18. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process.

  19. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  20. New Methodology for Rapid Seismic Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melikyan, A. E.; Balassanian, S. Y.

    2002-05-01

    Seismic risk is growing worldwide and is, increasingly, a problem of developing countries. Along with growing urbanization future earthquakes will have more disastrous social and economic consequences. Seismic risk assessment and reduction are important goals for each country located in seismically active zone. For Armenia these goals are of primary importance because the results of studies carried out by Armenian NSSP for assessment of the losses caused by various types of disasters in Armenia had shown that earthquakes are the most disastrous hazard for Armenia. The strategy for seismic risk reduction in 1999 was adopted by the Government of Armenia as a high priority state program. The world experience demonstrates that for efficient response the rapid assessment of seismic losses is necessary. There are several state-of-the-art approaches for seismic risk assessment (Radius, Hazus, etc.). All of them required large amount of various input data, which is impossible to collect in many developing countries, in particular in Armenia. Taking into account this very serious problem existing for developing countries, as well as rapid seismic risk assessment need immediately after strong earthquake the author undertake the attempt to contribute into a new approach for rapid seismic risk assessment under the supervision of Prof. S. Balassanian. The analysis of numerous factors influencing seismic risk in Armenia shows that the following elements contribute most significantly to the possible losses: seismic hazard; density of population; vulnerability of structures. Proposed approach for rapid seismic risk assessment based on these three factors has been tested for several seismic events. These tests have shown that such approach might represent from 80 to 90 percent of real losses.

  1. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  2. At the Intersection of HIV/AIDS and Cancer: A Qualitative Needs Assessment of Community-Based HIV/AIDS Service Organizations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burkhalter, Jack E.; Cahill, Sean; Shuk, Elyse; Guidry, John; Corner, Geoffrey; Berk, Alexandra; Candelario, Norman; Kornegay, Mark; Lubetkin, Erica I.

    2013-01-01

    Due to advances in treatment, persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) are living longer, but with aging, immune deficits, and lifestyle factors, they are at increased risk for cancer. This challenges community-based AIDS service organizations (ASOs) to address the growing cancer needs of…

  3. Use of System Safety Risk Assessments for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the System Safety approach used to assess risk for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Previous to the first RSRM flight in the fall of 1988, all systems were analyzed extensively to assure that hazards were identified, assessed and that the baseline risk was understood and appropriately communicated. Since the original RSRM baseline was established, Thiokol and NASA have implemented a number of initiatives that have further improved the RSRM. The robust design, completion of rigorous testing and flight success of the RSRM has resulted in a wise reluctance to make changes. One of the primary assessments required to accompany the documentation of each proposed change and aid in the decision making process is a risk assessment. Documentation supporting proposed changes, including the risk assessments from System Safety, are reviewed and assessed by Thiokol and NASA technical management. After thorough consideration, approved changes are implemented adding improvements to and reducing risk of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

  4. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  5. Knowledge, attitudes and risk behaviour related to HIV and AIDS: the case of international students in a Finnish university.

    PubMed

    Suominen, Tarja; Karanja-Pernu, Caroline; Kylmä, Jari; Houtsonen, Jarmo; Välimäki, Maritta

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this pilot study was to illustrate international university students' knowledge of HIV and AIDS, attitudes towards HIV and AIDS and risk behaviours in relation to HIV and AIDS. Questionnaires were posted to 140 students, and 32 responded. Data were analysed statistically. The results indicated a fairly good knowledge level of HIV and AIDS. The majority of students were well aware of the general facts about HIV and AIDS, modes of transmission and main risk groups, and they were also aware of the universal precautions. The majority of students had positive attitudes towards persons with HIV and AIDS and were willing to care for them. The students identified well with risk behaviours. Most agreed that their knowledge level of HIV and AIDS did affect their risk behaviours, while others felt it was a matter of choice, personal attitude and practice. Choice is a determining factor for decisions made by students in relation to HIV and AIDS. Future research focusing on factors influencing these choices that put them at risk of contracting the HIV virus is recommended. Students also need to be enlightened on matters concerning symptoms of HIV and AIDS.

  6. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  7. Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume III: Part A

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume 3A provides policies and guiding principles on the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to human health and ecological risk assessment in the EPA Superfund Program.

  8. Pathways from parental AIDS to child psychological, educational and sexual risk: developing an empirically-based interactive theoretical model.

    PubMed

    Cluver, Lucie; Orkin, Mark; Boyes, Mark E; Sherr, Lorraine; Makasi, Daphne; Nikelo, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Increasing evidence demonstrates negative psychological, health, and developmental outcomes for children associated with parental HIV/AIDS illness and death. However, little is known about how parental AIDS leads to negative child outcomes. This study used a structural equation modelling approach to develop an empirically-based theoretical model of interactive relationships between parental or primary caregiver AIDS-illness, AIDS-orphanhood and predicted intervening factors associated with children's psychological distress, educational access and sexual health. Cross-sectional data were collected in 2009-2011, from 6002 children aged 10-17 years in three provinces of South Africa using stratified random sampling. Comparison groups included children orphaned by AIDS, orphaned by other causes and non-orphans, and children whose parents or primary caregivers were unwell with AIDS, unwell with other causes or healthy. Participants reported on psychological symptoms, educational access, and sexual health risks, as well as hypothesized sociodemographic and intervening factors. In order to build an interactive theoretical model of multiple child outcomes, multivariate regression and structural equation models were developed for each individual outcome, and then combined into an overall model. Neither AIDS-orphanhood nor parental AIDS-illness were directly associated with psychological distress, educational access, or sexual health. Instead, significant indirect effects of AIDS-orphanhood and parental AIDS-illness were obtained on all measured outcomes. Child psychological, educational and sexual health risks share a common set of intervening variables including parental disability, poverty, community violence, stigma, and child abuse that together comprise chain effects. In all models, parental AIDS-illness had stronger effects and more risk pathways than AIDS-orphanhood, especially via poverty and parental disability. AIDS-orphanhood and parental AIDS-illness impact

  9. [Assessment criteria in the choice of aids for the lifting of patients].

    PubMed

    Panciera, D; Menoni, O; Ricci, M G; Occhipinti, E

    1999-01-01

    A fundamental part of the prevention strategies aimed at reducing risk due to manual handling of patients is the use of appropriate aids. This paper defines the basic types of aids for hospital wards: patient lifting devices, aids for hygiene and minor aids; and also proposes a procedure for choice of the type of aid: the procedure uses a specific protocol and also analyzes work organization and the environmental features of the ward. The proposed criteria for choice concern in the first place the fundamental requirements of the equipment: safety for operator and patient, simplicity of use and comfort for the patient. Secondly the basic determinants for choice of the type of aid are the type of disabled patient usually present in the ward and the analysis of the movements made in handling patients. On this basis, for each type of aid, the specific features are defined which direct the choice of supply for the various wards that will be adequate and effective both in reducing risk due to manual handling of patients and in improving the comfort of the patients.

  10. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  11. Microfinance and HIV/AIDS prevention: assessing its promise and limitations.

    PubMed

    Dworkin, Shari L; Blankenship, Kim

    2009-06-01

    Researchers increasingly argue that poverty and gender inequality exacerbate the spread of HIV/AIDS and that economic empowerment can therefore assist in the prevention and mitigation of the disease, particularly for women. This paper critically evaluates such claims. First, we examine the promises and limits of integrated HIV/AIDS prevention and microfinance programs by examining the available evidence base. We then propose future research agendas and next steps that may help to clear current ambiguities about the potential for economic programs to contribute to HIV/AIDS risk reduction efforts.

  12. Microfinance and HIV/AIDS Prevention: Assessing its Promise and Limitations

    PubMed Central

    Dworkin, Shari L.; Blankenship, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Researchers increasingly argue that poverty and gender inequality exacerbate the spread of HIV/AIDS and that economic empowerment can therefore assist in the prevention and mitigation of the disease, particularly for women. This paper critically evaluates such claims. First, we examine the promises and limits of integrated HIV/AIDS prevention and microfinance programs by examining the available evidence base. We then propose future research agendas and next steps that may help to clear current ambiguities about the potential for economic programs to contribute to HIV/AIDS risk reduction efforts. PMID:19294500

  13. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  14. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  15. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  16. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  17. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  18. Risk assessment of mixed waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Montague, D.F.; Holton, G.A.; King, C.M.

    1987-12-31

    As part of its ongoing efforts to ensure environmental regulation compliance at DOE facilities, DOE published on April 26, 1985, a notice of intent to write an Environmental Impact Statement on Waste Management Activities for Groundwater Protection (Groundwater EIS) at the Savannah River Plant (SRP). To perform a human health risk assessment of each waste site for each closure action considered, DuPont organized a project team led by personnel from the Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) and supported by outside contractors specializing in risk assessment work. As part of that team, JBF Associates, Inc. (JBFA) performed an atmospheric containment transport analysis and human health risk assessment of nonradioactive contaminants from SRP waste sites. For each waste site, three closure actions were examined: (1) excavate the site, backfill it, and cap it followed by regular groundwater monitoring (Option 1); (2) backfill and cap the site followed by regular groundwater monitoring (Option 2); and (3) no remedial action, regular groundwater monitoring, and some site maintenance work (Option 3). The human health risk assessment performed by JBFA estimated the public and worker risks from contaminants released to the atmosphere from each waste site for each closure option. This paper first presents the methodology JBFA used to estimate the public and worker risks attributable to the inhalation and ingestion of airborne, nonradioactive contaminants. Following the description of the analysis methodology, the authors present the risk results for the waste sites that were due to atmospherically released nonradioactive contaminants. Both worker risks and public risks are presented. Finally, the authors present the results and conclusions derived from their analysis of the risk from airborne, nonradioactive contaminants.

  19. Modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos

    2009-02-01

    In this study, I describe a systematic approach for modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment that is based on the incorporation of kinetic spoilage modeling in exposure assessment by combining data and models for the specific spoilage organisms (SSO: fraction of the total microflora responsible for spoilage) with those for pathogens. The structure of the approach is presented through an exposure assessment application for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. The proposed approach allows for identifying spoiled products at the time of consumption by comparing the estimated level of SSO (pseudomonads) with the spoilage level (level of SSO at which spoilage is observed). The results of the application indicate that ignoring spoilage in risk assessment could lead to significant overestimations of risk.

  20. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    PubMed

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  1. Assessment of HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitudes and behaviours among students in higher education in Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Mkumbo, Kitila

    2013-01-01

    There is a paucity of studies that have systematically and comprehensively investigated the knowledge level, attitudes and the pattern of sexual behaviours related to HIV and AIDS in higher education settings in sub-Saharan Africa in general and Tanzania in particular. This study attempted to fill a void in knowledge. A cross-sectional descriptive design was used, employing a self-administered questionnaire as the main data collection tool. More than 400 higher education students completed a questionnaire assessing their knowledge, attitudes and behaviours related to HIV and AIDS. About three quarters of respondents demonstrated comprehensive knowledge about HIV and AIDS, and the majority of respondents expressed positive attitudes towards people living with HIV and AIDS. Despite demonstrating high knowledge level about HIV and AIDS, the results show that sexual behaviours among students in higher education are characteristically risky, and do not significantly differ from youth in the general population.

  2. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

  3. [Communication of health risks: the example of HIV/AIDS prevention].

    PubMed

    Lehmann, H; Töppich, J

    2009-12-01

    Those seeking to educate the public about health need to communicate health risks effectively. This involves providing evidence-based information about factors and behaviors that are dangerous to people's health and making recommendations regarding how risks can be avoided or minimized. This communication usually aims to motivate people to act in a way that promotes health or prevents disease. Organized 'health education' that seeks to communicate risks is always embedded in a contextual framework that in turn influences the issues and content to be communicated and the form of communication that is chosen. The scope of available scientific knowledge is an important part of this framework as is the extent to which risks are presented in the media as being dangerous. The media's message has a strong influence on how the public and specific subgroups within it react. The article describes conditions that contribute to successful risk communication based on the example of HIV/AIDS prevention. We chose this particular case because it can serve as an example of how to deal with future epidemics that may potentially generate substantial media coverage. This field report shows how risk communication about HIV/AIDS in the mass media in Germany in the mid-1980s elicited a risk consciousness among the general public that in itself was in danger of becoming a health risk, especially for people affected by the disease, and how 'health education' responded to this challenge. It concludes by describing how these experiences with risk communication can be applied to similar types of risk communication today.

  4. Assessing the impact of HAART on the incidence of defining and non-defining AIDS cancers among patients with HIV/AIDS: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Cobucci, Ricardo Ney Oliveira; Lima, Paulo Henrique; de Souza, Pollyana Carvalho; Costa, Vanessa Viana; Cornetta, Maria da Conceição de Mesquita; Fernandes, José Veríssimo; Gonçalves, Ana Katherine

    2015-01-01

    After highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) became widespread, several studies demonstrated changes in the incidence of defining and non-defining AIDS cancers among HIV/AIDS patients. We conducted a systematic review of observational studies evaluating the incidence of malignancies before and after the introduction of HAART in people with HIV/AIDS. Eligible studies were searched up to December 2012 in the following databases: Pubmed, Embase, Scielo, Cancerlit and Google Scholar. In this study, we determined the cancer risk ratio by comparing the pre- and post-HAART eras. Twenty-one relevant articles were found, involving more than 600,000 people with HIV/AIDS and 10,891 new cases of cancers. The risk for the development of an AIDS-defining cancer decreased after the introduction of HAART: Kaposi's sarcoma (RR=0.30, 95% CI: 0.28-0.33) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (RR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.48-0.56), in contrast to invasive cervical cancer (RR=1.46, 95% CI: 1.09-1.94). Among the non-AIDS-defining cancers, the overall risk increased after the introduction of HAART (RR=2.00, 95% CI: 1.79-2.23). The incidence of AIDS-defining cancers decreased and the incidence of non-AIDS-defining cancers increased after the early use of HAART, probably due to better control of viral replication, increased immunity and increased survival provided by new drugs.

  5. Promotion of Latina Health: Intersectionality of IPV and Risk for HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Rountree, Michele A; Granillo, Teresa; Bagwell-Gray, Meredith

    2016-04-01

    Latina women in the United States are vulnerable to two intersecting public health concerns: intimate partner violence (IPV) and subsequent risk for HIV/AIDS infection. Examination of the cultural and contextual life factors of this understudied population is crucial to developing culturally relevant HIV interventions. Focus groups with Latinas (15 monolingual; 10 bilingual) who have experienced IPV were conducted. Monolingual and bilingual Latinas endorsed that they were concerned about HIV infection, naming partner infidelity and experiences of forced and coerced sex as primary reasons for their concern. However, monolingual participants had lower levels of HIV knowledge, spending much time discussing myths of HIV infection, whereas bilingual participants spent more time discussing specific prevention techniques, including challenges related to the violence in their relationships. These findings suggest that HIV/AIDS prevention programs for Latinas need to pay close attention to the different historical, contextual, and cultural experiences of this at-risk group of women.

  6. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-12-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  7. Plasma Fatty Acids in Zambian Adults with HIV/AIDS: Relation to Dietary Intake and Cardiovascular Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Nyirenda, Christopher K; Kabagambe, Edmond K; Koethe, John R; Kiage, James N; Chi, Benjamin H; Musonda, Patrick; Blevins, Meridith; Bosire, Claire N; Tsai, Michael Y; Heimburger, Douglas C

    2015-01-01

    Objective. To determine whether 24 hr dietary recalls (DR) are a good measure of polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) intake when compared to plasma levels, and whether plasma PUFA is associated with markers of HIV/AIDS progression and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Methods. In a cross-sectional study among 210 antiretroviral therapy-naïve HIV-infected adults from Lusaka, Zambia, we collected data on medical history and dietary intake using 24 hr DR. We measured fatty acids and markers of AIDS progression and CVD risk in fasting plasma collected at baseline. Results. PUFA intakes showed modest correlations with corresponding plasma levels; Spearman correlations were 0.36 (p < 0.01) for eicosapentaenoic acid and 0.21 (p = 0.005) for docosahexaenoic acid. While there were no significant associations (p > 0.05) between total plasma PUFA and C-reactive protein (CRP) or lipid levels, plasma arachidonic acid was inversely associated with CRP and triglycerides and positively associated with HDL-C, CD4+ T-cell count, and plasma albumin (p < 0.05). Plasma saturated fatty acids (SFA) were positively associated with CRP (β = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.40, p = 0.003) and triglycerides (β = 0.08; 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.12, p < 0.01). Conclusions. Our data suggest that a single DR is inadequate for assessing PUFA intake and that plasma arachidonic acid levels may modulate HIV/AIDS progression and CVD risk.

  8. Plasma Fatty Acids in Zambian Adults with HIV/AIDS: Relation to Dietary Intake and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Nyirenda, Christopher K.; Kabagambe, Edmond K.; Koethe, John R.; Kiage, James N.; Chi, Benjamin H.; Musonda, Patrick; Blevins, Meridith; Bosire, Claire N.; Tsai, Michael Y.; Heimburger, Douglas C.

    2015-01-01

    Objective. To determine whether 24 hr dietary recalls (DR) are a good measure of polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) intake when compared to plasma levels, and whether plasma PUFA is associated with markers of HIV/AIDS progression and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Methods. In a cross-sectional study among 210 antiretroviral therapy-naïve HIV-infected adults from Lusaka, Zambia, we collected data on medical history and dietary intake using 24 hr DR. We measured fatty acids and markers of AIDS progression and CVD risk in fasting plasma collected at baseline. Results. PUFA intakes showed modest correlations with corresponding plasma levels; Spearman correlations were 0.36 (p < 0.01) for eicosapentaenoic acid and 0.21 (p = 0.005) for docosahexaenoic acid. While there were no significant associations (p > 0.05) between total plasma PUFA and C-reactive protein (CRP) or lipid levels, plasma arachidonic acid was inversely associated with CRP and triglycerides and positively associated with HDL-C, CD4+ T-cell count, and plasma albumin (p < 0.05). Plasma saturated fatty acids (SFA) were positively associated with CRP (β = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.40, p = 0.003) and triglycerides (β = 0.08; 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.12, p < 0.01). Conclusions. Our data suggest that a single DR is inadequate for assessing PUFA intake and that plasma arachidonic acid levels may modulate HIV/AIDS progression and CVD risk. PMID:26161268

  9. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  10. ORAMUS(WINDOWS). Ozone Risk AssessMent Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Biller, W.F.

    1998-12-01

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA`s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  11. ORAMUS(DOS). Ozone Risk AssessMent Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Biller, W.F.

    1998-12-01

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA`s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 acute health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  12. RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSES USING EPA'S ON-LINE SITE-SPECIFIC TRANSPORT MODELS AND FIELD DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has developed a suite of on-line calculators and transport models to aid in risk assessment for subsurface contamination. The calculators (www.epa.gov/athens/onsite) provide several levels of tools and data. These include tools for generating commonly-used model input param...

  13. Assessing the Validity of a Single-Item HIV Risk Stage-of-Change Measure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Napper, Lucy E.; Branson, Catherine M.; Fisher, Dennis G.; Reynolds, Grace L.; Wood, Michelle M.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the validity of a single-item measure of HIV risk stage of change that HIV prevention contractors were required to collect by the California State Office of AIDS. The single-item measure was compared to the more conventional University of Rhode Island Change Assessment (URICA). Participants were members of Los Angeles…

  14. Experimental and analytical studies for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    Various experimental and analytical studies performed for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment program are described with emphasis on carbon fiber characteristics, sensitivity of electrical equipment and components to shorting or arcing by carbon fibers, attenuation effect of carbon fibers on aircraft landing aids, impact of carbon fibers on industrial facilities. A simple method of estimating damage from airborne carbon fibers is presented.

  15. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  16. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  17. [Monitoring and risk assessment of campylobacter infections].

    PubMed

    Bartelt, E

    2004-08-01

    The aim of a national study of a "Quantitative Risk Assessment of Campylobacter infections and broiler chicken" at the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment is to estimate the chicken meat associated risk of Campylobacteriosis in Germany by using probabilistic models. Furthermore, process parameters (modelling parameters) with the most vital impact on the risk of Campylobacteriosis due to chicken meat have to be elaborated to give recommendations for risk management options in the whole food chain. The outcome of Joint FAO/WHO Expert Consultations on Risk Assessment of Microbiological Hazards in Foods (JEMRA) with respect to Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens are the baseline for the national approach. In addition, national studies from Canada, Denmark and The Netherlands have to be considered. Typical regional data with respect to the disease, to risk factors in Germany and to the qualitative and quantitative occurrence of Campylobacter in broiler chickens along the "farm-to-fork" continuum have to be collected and validated for elaboration of the four elements of a risk assessment. Data on the prevalence of the agent at different stages of the food chain given in available surveillance systems in Germany are limited with respect to their suitability as incoming parameters for the models. A monitoring programme, as required in the Directive 2003/99/EC on the monitoring of zoonoses and zoonotic agents, as well as coordinated programmes for the official food control authorities, could improve the data baseline for risk assessment studies for instance. To collect all necessary information on the quantitative load of Camylobacter in broiler chickens will go beyond the scope of any existing or future monitoring systems. Results can only be achieved by detailed studies. Beside this, regional data on production and processing of broiler chicken, consumption data and information on the behaviour of consumers in households when preparing broiler chicken products are

  18. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    PubMed

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  19. Health Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mixtures is poorly characterized, exposure data are uncertain and toxicologic data on the known components of the mixture are limited. However, a potential human health hazard may exist and the U.S.EPA, state and local governments need to be able to assess the total hazard in order to make decisions on appropriate action. This report describes a procedure for assessing the risks from chemical mixtures that includes options when different kinds of data are available. Good-quality information on the mixture of concern or a similar mixture should always be used. Less desirable, but still useful approach, is to utilize data on components and their interactions. The quality of exposure and toxicity data must be determined and the uncertainties involved in each risk assessment must be thoroughly discussed. ater contamination is briefly discussed since it is of vital concern as the primary exposure medium for chemical mixtures. The methodology for estimating the human health risk from single chemicals, both carcinogens and systemic toxicants, is reviewed as it forms the basis for the assessment of mixtures. The Implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mix

  20. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  1. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DYE AND PIGMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This risk assessment calculates the maximum loadings of constituents found in dyes and pigment industries waste streams which can be disposed in different types of waste management units without causing health benchmarks to be exceeded at plausible receptor locations. The assessment focuses on potential risks from volatilization and leaching to groundwater of constituents disposed in surface impoundments and landfills with either clay liners or composite liners. This product will be used by EPA decision makers to assist in determining whether certain waste streams generated by the dyes and pigments industries should be designated as hazardous.

  2. Pressure sore risk assessment in children.

    PubMed

    Waterlow, J A

    1997-07-01

    A multi-centred study was undertaken involving 300 children ranging from neonates to children aged 16 years. The purpose of the study was to investigate the possibility of designing a pressure sore risk assessment scoring system suitable for the paediatric area of care. It was found that the following conclusions can be drawn: (i) Children are at risk of developing pressure sores; (ii) A version of the adult Waterlow card was not appropriate, especially at the younger end of the scale; (iii) There are identifiable situations and treatments which do pose a risk of pressure sore development. Admission documentation and a care plan within a hospital policy is recommended as the best method of drawing nurses' attention to the risk factors involved and the measures which need to be taken to alleviate the risk of tissue damage.

  3. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    PubMed

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  4. Behavioural risk factors for HIV/AIDS in a low-HIV prevalence Muslim nation: Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Gibney, L; Choudhury, P; Khawaja, Z; Sarker, M; Vermund, SH

    2008-01-01

    Summary A review of published and unpublished data indicates the prevalence of high-risk behaviours for HIV transmission in segments of the Bangladeshi population. These include casual unprotected sex, heterosexual as well as between males, prior to and after marriage. Intravenous drug use (IVDU) exists though illicit drugs are more commonly inhaled. There is a fear, however, that inhalers may turn to injecting drugs, as is common in neighbouring countries. The lack of public awareness of HIV/AIDS, and misconceptions about the disease, may contribute to continued high-risk behaviours by segments of the population and, thus, to the spread of HIV. Bangladesh’s proximity to India and Myanmar (countries with high HIV endemicity and a rapidly growing number of cases) increases fears of an epidemic in Bangladesh. This proximity will only be a risk factor, however, if high-risk contacts occur between nationals of these countries. PMID:10340200

  5. Self-compassion and risk behavior among people living with HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Dawson Rose, Carol; Webel, Allison; Sullivan, Kathleen M; Cuca, Yvette P; Wantland, Dean; Johnson, Mallory O; Brion, John; Portillo, Carmen J; Corless, Inge B; Voss, Joachim; Chen, Wei-Ti; Phillips, J Craig; Tyer-Viola, Lynda; Rivero-Méndez, Marta; Nicholas, Patrice K; Nokes, Kathleen; Kemppainen, Jeanne; Sefcik, Elizabeth; Eller, Lucille Sanzero; Iipinge, Scholastika; Kirksey, Kenn; Chaiphibalsarisdi, Puangtip; Davila, Nancy; Hamilton, Mary Jane; Hickey, Dorothy; Maryland, Mary; Reid, Paula; Holzemer, William L

    2014-04-01

    Sexual risk behavior and illicit drug use among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) contribute to poor health and onward transmission of HIV. The aim of this collaborative multi-site nursing research study was to explore the association between self-compassion and risk behaviors in PLWHA. As part of a larger project, nurse researchers in Canada, China, Namibia, Puerto Rico, Thailand and the US enrolled 1211 sexually active PLWHA using convenience sampling. The majority of the sample was male, middle-aged, and from the US. Illicit drug use was strongly associated with sexual risk behavior, but participants with higher self-compassion were less likely to report sexual risk behavior, even in the presence of illicit drug use. Self-compassion may be a novel area for behavioral intervention development for PLWHA.

  6. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  7. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  8. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    PubMed

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  9. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  10. Methodology for assessing the performance of urine absorbing aids in controlling malodour release.

    PubMed

    Sironi, S; Capelli, L; Dentoni, L; Del Rosso, R

    2013-08-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the possibility of comparing the performance of different absorbent aids in terms of odour control by discussing a suitable methodology for product evaluation. To overcome the problems of low test reproducibility owing to biological urine variability, the first step of the work consisted of the identification and the production of artificial urine having a constant and stable composition over time, moreover preventing sensorial assessors from any risk of biological contamination. Sensorial measurements were performed to optimize the similarity between artificial and biological urine, especially as far as the composition of the volatile component and therefore of the odour properties are concerned. The assessment of absorbent articles performance to control urine malodour includes both the concentration and the hedonic tone of the odour released by the article itself loaded with synthetic urine. Analyses were run on different products, which can be grouped into two different classes: absorbing aids with or without odour control technology (OCT) respectively. Results show that, despite of the presence or absence of OCT on absorbing products, their odour concentrations are almost identical, being comprised between 10 000 and 12 000 ouE m(-3) . For this reason, it is evident that odour concentration is not suitable as the sole parameter for comparison of different absorbing products. Instead, the hedonic odour tone (odour pleasantness/unpleasantness) relevant to the different product typologies (that is products with and without OCT) should be used as an additional discriminating factor for this kind of comparative tests.

  11. Occupational Risk of HIV, HBV and HSV-2 Infections in Health Care Personnel Caring for AIDS Patients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuhls, Thomas L.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Female health care workers with exposure to AIDS patients were studied. Two of the 246 workers showed evidence of opportunistic infections. This analysis confirms the low risk of occupationally acquired HIV infection when hospital infection control practices are employed around AIDS patients. (Author/VM)

  12. Are Rural Women Powerless When it Comes to HIV & AIDS Risk? Implications for Adult Education Programmes in South Africa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kiggundu, Edith; Castle, Jane

    2007-01-01

    There is an urgent need for fresh approaches to HIV & AIDS education for adults and youth in South Africa, particularly for those marginalised by society, such as rural black women. In this article we explore the factors which affect awareness, condom use and HIV & AIDS risk among a group of women who attend classes in a rural Adult…

  13. Risk Assessment for Toxic Air Pollutants: A Citizen's Guide

    MedlinePlus

    ... IT ALL UP Public health agencies concerned with air quality perform risk assessments to determine the increased risk of illness from a specific human exposure to a toxic air pollutant. Risk assessment is a four-step process: ( ...

  14. Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

  15. An approach to security risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  16. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  17. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  18. TOXICOGENOMICS AND HUMAN DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory


    Toxicogenomics and Human Disease Risk Assessment.

    Complete sequencing of human and other genomes, availability of large-scale gene
    expression arrays with ever-increasing numbers of genes displayed, and steady
    improvements in protein expression technology can hav...

  19. Risk Assessment with Adolescent Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulides, T. E.; Richardson, G.; Graham, F.; Kennedy, P. J.; Kelly, T. P.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the…

  20. Methodology for qualitative urban flooding risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Leitão, João P; Almeida, Maria do Céu; Simões, Nuno E; Martins, André

    2013-01-01

    Pluvial or surface flooding can cause significant damage and disruption as it often affects highly urbanised areas. Therefore it is essential to accurately identify consequences and assess the risks associated with such phenomena. The aim of this study is to present the results and investigate the applicability of a qualitative flood risk assessment methodology in urban areas. This methodology benefits from recent developments in urban flood modelling, such as the dual-drainage modelling concept, namely one-dimensional automatic overland flow network delineation tools (e.g. AOFD) and 1D/1D models incorporating both surface and sewer drainage systems. To assess flood risk, the consequences can be estimated using hydraulic model results, such as water velocities and water depth results; the likelihood was estimated based on the return period of historical rainfall events. To test the methodology two rainfall events with return periods of 350 and 2 years observed in Alcântara (Lisbon, Portugal) were used and three consequence dimensions were considered: affected public transportation services, affected properties and pedestrian safety. The most affected areas in terms of flooding were easily identified; the presented methodology was shown to be easy to implement and effective to assess flooding risk in urban areas, despite the common difficulties in obtaining data.

  1. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  2. Risk-taking behaviors and AIDS knowledge: experiences and beliefs of minority adolescent mothers.

    PubMed

    Koniak-Griffin, D; Nyamathi, A; Vasquez, R; Russo, A A

    1994-12-01

    Using a qualitative focus-group methodology, this study investigated risk-taking behaviors and AIDS knowledge among minority pregnant and parenting adolescents at risk for heterosexual and perinatal transmission of HIV. Seven focus groups were conducted with a total of 48 young women recruited from alternative schools and residential facilities for pregnant adolescents and young mothers in Southern California. Participants also completed a background questionnaire soliciting sociodemographic information and an AIDS knowledge test. The sample included 33 Latinas and 15 African-Americans, ranging in age from 12 to 19 years. There were bipolar findings regarding risk-taking behaviors. At one end of the continuum were young women with a history of one of more of the following behaviors: multiple sex partners, drug and alcohol use, carrying weapons, and participating in gang-related activities. Contrasting with these, were those who had one or two sex partners and no history of alcohol or drug abuse. A majority of the participants were having unprotected sex. A variety of factors affected condom use, including gender inequality, embarrassment, and personal preferences and values. Risk-taking was also influenced by lack of security and safety in daily living, emotion-focused coping and peer pressure.

  3. The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

    The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

  4. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  5. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    PubMed

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  6. exLOPA for explosion risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Markowski, Adam S

    2007-04-11

    The European Union regulations require safety and health protection of workers who are potentially at risk from explosive atmosphere areas. According to the requirements, the operators of installations where potentially explosive atmosphere can occur are obliged to produce an explosion protection document. The key objective of this document is the assessment of explosion risks. This paper is concerned with the so-called explosion layer of protection analysis (exLOPA), which allows for semi-quantitative explosion risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The exLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA but takes into account some typical factors appropriate for explosion, like the probability that an explosive atmosphere will occur, probability that sources of ignition will be present and become effective as well as the probability of failure on demand for appropriate explosion prevention and mitigation means.

  7. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  8. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    PubMed

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.

  9. Assessing the Impact of Testing Aids on Post-Secondary Student Performance: A Meta-Analytic Investigation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larwin, Karen H.; Gorman, Jennifer; Larwin, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Testing aids, including student-prepared testing aids (a.k.a., cheat sheets or crib notes) and open-textbook exams, are common practice in post-secondary assessment. There is a considerable amount of published research that discusses and investigates the impact of these testing aids. However, the findings of this research are contradictory and…

  10. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu). PMID:27974141

  11. Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

  12. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons.

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista de Duffard, A M; Duffard, R

    1996-01-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone,dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or changes in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. PMID:9182042

  13. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R.

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  14. Opioid risk assessment in palliative medicine.

    PubMed

    Dale, Rebecca; Edwards, Jeremy; Ballantyne, Jane

    2016-03-01

    Pain management with opioids is an integral part of palliative medicine. As the doses and durations of opioid therapy increase, the inherent risks of opioid therapy rise. Although opioids are effective analgesics, they bring with them complex medical and psychological side effects. Aberrant behavior is dangerous and can be difficult to identify as it results in a splitting in the goals of treatment between the patient and providers. One effective strategy in preventing that situation is through the early identification of at-risk patients. There are several tools that can help identify patients at higher risk of addiction and aberrant behaviors during opioid therapy. Structured use of these tools in conjunction with the clinic exam, regular follow-up visits, and lab testing can further reduce patient risk and improve success in opioid therapy. This article will review the background behind a structured strategy for opioid risk assessment using the Opioid Risk Tool, SOAPP-R, and DIRE tools. In addition, example aberrant behaviors and follow-up strategies will be reviewed. It will be demonstrated that careful screening and follow-up allow risk factors to be recognized and addressed early.

  15. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickol, Craig L.

    2008-01-01

    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  16. Assessment and Screening. A Center Quick Training Aid.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California Univ., Los Angeles. Center for Mental Health in Schools.

    Efficient and accurate screening and assessment strategies are essential for matching students with the programs and interventions to address their current needs and prevent problems from getting bigger. This process calls for screening tools that range from descriptions by referrers, through surveys to identify unrecognized problems, to analysis…

  17. Self-compassion and Risk Behavior among People Living with HIV/AIDS

    PubMed Central

    Webel, Allison; Sullivan, Kathleen M.; Cuca, Yvette P.; Wantland, Dean; Johnson, Mallory O.; Brion, John; Portillo, Carmen J.; Corless, Inge B.; Voss, Joachim; Chen, Wei-Ti; Phillips, J. Craig; Tyer-Viola, Lynda; Rivero-Méndez, Marta; Nicholas, Patrice K.; Nokes, Kathleen; Kemppainen, Jeanne; Sefcik, Elizabeth; Eller, Lucille Sanzero; Iipinge, Scholastika; Kirksey, Kenn; Chaiphibalsarisdi, Puangtip; Davila, Nancy; Hamilton, Mary Jane; Hickey, Dorothy; Maryland, Mary; Reid, Paula; Holzemer, William L.

    2014-01-01

    Sexual risk behavior and illicit drug use among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) contribute to poor health and onward transmission of HIV. The aim of this collaborative multi-site nursing research study was to explore the association between self-compassion and risk behaviors in PLWHA. Nurse researchers in Canada, China, Namibia, Puerto Rico, Thailand and the U.S. enrolled 2,182 PLWHA using convenience sampling. Over half of study participants were sexually active in the past three months. Participants with higher self-compassion were less likely to report sexual risk behavior. However, if a person also used illicit drugs, the relationship with self-compassion was reduced. Self-compassion may be a novel area for behavioral intervention development for PLWHA. PMID:24510757

  18. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  19. Do CT scans aid assessment of distal tibial physeal fractures?

    PubMed

    Cutler, L; Molloy, A; Dhukuram, V; Bass, A

    2004-03-01

    Distal tibial physeal fractures are the second most common growth plate injury and the most common cause of growth arrest and deformity. This study assesses the accuracy of pre-operative planning for placement of the screws in these fractures using either standard radiographs or CT scans. We studied 62 consecutive physeal fractures over a period of four years. An outline of a single cut of the CT scan was used for each patient. An ideal position for the screw was determined as being perpendicular to and at the midpoint of the fracture. The difference in entry point and direction of the screw between the ideal and the observers' assessments were compared using the paired Student's t-test. There was a statistically significant improvement (p < 0.0001) in the accuracy of the point of insertion and the direction of the screw on the pre-operative plan when CT scans were used rather than plain radiographs. We would, therefore, recommend that CT scans are routinely used in the pre-operative assessment and treatment of distal tibial physeal fractures.

  20. Biostatistics Series Module 8: Assessing Risk

    PubMed Central

    Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

    2017-01-01

    In observational studies, as well as in interventional ones, it is frequently necessary to estimate risk that is the association between an observed outcome or event and exposure to one or more factors that may be contributing to the event. Understanding incidence and prevalence are the starting point in any discussion of risk assessment. Incidence rate uses person-time as the denominator rather than a simple count. Ideally, rates and ratios estimated from samples should be presented with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). To assess the importance of an individual risk factor, it is necessary to compare the risk of the outcome in the exposed group with that in the nonexposed group. A comparison between risks in different groups can be made by examining either their ratio or the difference between them. The 2 × 2 contingency table comes in handy in the calculation of ratios. Odds ratio (OR) is the ratio of the odds of an event in the exposed group, to the odds of the same event in the nonexposed group. It can range from zero to infinity. When the odds of an outcome in the two groups are identical, then the OR equals one. OR >1 indicates exposure increases risk while OR <1 indicates that exposure is protecting against risk. The OR should be presented with its 95% CI to enable more meaningful interpretation – if this interval includes 1, then even a relatively large OR will not carry much weight. The relative risk (RR) denotes the ratio of risk (probability) of event in exposed group to risk of same event in the nonexposed group. Its interpretation is similar (but not identical) to the OR. If the event in question is relatively uncommon, values of OR and RR tend to be similar. Absolute risk reduction (ARR) is a measure of the effectiveness of an intervention with respect to a dichotomous event. It is calculated as proportion experiencing the event in control group minus the proportion experiencing the event in treated group. It is often used to

  1. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    PubMed Central

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

  2. 77 FR 58590 - Determining Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-21

    ... COMMISSION Determining Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License...: LWR Edition,'' Section 19.1, ``Determining the Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for... Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License Amendment Requests After Initial Fuel Load''...

  3. Improving environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceuticals.

    PubMed

    Ågerstrand, Marlene; Berg, Cecilia; Björlenius, Berndt; Breitholtz, Magnus; Brunström, Björn; Fick, Jerker; Gunnarsson, Lina; Larsson, D G Joakim; Sumpter, John P; Tysklind, Mats; Rudén, Christina

    2015-05-05

    This paper presents 10 recommendations for improving the European Medicines Agency's guidance for environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceutical products. The recommendations are based on up-to-date, available science in combination with experiences from other chemical frameworks such as the REACH-legislation for industrial chemicals. The recommendations concern: expanding the scope of the current guideline; requirements to assess the risk for development of antibiotic resistance; jointly performed assessments; refinement of the test proposal; mixture toxicity assessments on active pharmaceutical ingredients with similar modes of action; use of all available ecotoxicity studies; mandatory reviews; increased transparency; inclusion of emission data from production; and a risk management option. We believe that implementation of our recommendations would strengthen the protection of the environment and be beneficial to society. Legislation and guidance documents need to be updated at regular intervals in order to incorporate new knowledge from the scientific community. This is particularly important for regulatory documents concerning pharmaceuticals in the environment since this is a research field that has been growing substantially in the last decades.

  4. International Space Station End-of-Life Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duncan, Gary

    2014-01-01

    Although there are ongoing efforts to extend the ISS life cycle through 2028, the International Space Station (ISS) end-of-life (EOL) cycle is currently scheduled for 2020. The EOL for the ISS will require de-orbiting the ISS. This will be the largest manmade object ever to be de-orbited, therefore safely de-orbiting the station will be a very complex problem. This process is being planned by NASA and its international partners. Numerous factors will need to be considered to accomplish this such as target corridors, orbits, altitude, drag, maneuvering capabilities, debris mapping etc. The ISS EOL Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will play a part in this process by estimating the reliability of the hardware supplying the maneuvering capabilities. The PRA will model the probability of failure of the systems supplying and controlling the thrust needed to aid in the de-orbit maneuvering.

  5. International Space Station End-of-Life Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duncan, Gary W.

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) end-of-life (EOL) cycle is currently scheduled for 2020, although there are ongoing efforts to extend ISS life cycle through 2028. The EOL for the ISS will require deorbiting the ISS. This will be the largest manmade object ever to be de-orbited therefore safely deorbiting the station will be a very complex problem. This process is being planned by NASA and its international partners. Numerous factors will need to be considered to accomplish this such as target corridors, orbits, altitude, drag, maneuvering capabilities etc. The ISS EOL Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will play a part in this process by estimating the reliability of the hardware supplying the maneuvering capabilities. The PRA will model the probability of failure of the systems supplying and controlling the thrust needed to aid in the de-orbit maneuvering.

  6. Unprotected Tajik male migrant workers in Moscow at risk for HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Weine, Stevan; Bahromov, Mahbat; Mirzoev, Azamdjon

    2008-10-01

    This paper focuses on Tajik male migrant workers in Moscow and seeks to address the global public health problem of HIV prevention amongst male migrant workers. To develop feasible and effective preventive interventions for reducing HIV risk behaviors amongst Tajik male migrant workers in Moscow, this study aimed to characterize their HIV/AIDS risk and protective knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors, as well as key contextual factors that would likely impede or facilitate a preventive intervention. This was a collaborative multi-sited ethnography in Moscow that included minimally structured interviews with 16 participants and focus group discussions with an additional 14 participants. The results suggest that many Tajik male migrant workers in Moscow are having unprotected sex with commercial sex workers. Although some of the migrants have basic knowledge about HIV, the migrants' ability to protect themselves from acquiring HIV is compromised by harsh living and working conditions as a consequence of being unprotected by law in Russia. To respond to HIV/AIDS risks amongst Tajik male migrant workers in Moscow, preventive interventions must be developed that respond to their sense of being unprotected in the midst of harsh living and working conditions and that draw upon existing sources of religious, community, and family support.

  7. Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Process for Designing and Conducting Ecological Risk Assessments - Interim Final

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document provides guidance to site managers and Remedial Project Managers who are legally responsible for the management of a site on how to design and conduct technically defensible ecological risk assessments for the Superfund program.

  8. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.

  9. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  10. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  11. 75 FR 46909 - Solicitation of Input From Stakeholders Regarding Assessments Focused on Improving Food Aid and...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-04

    ... National Institute of Food and Agriculture Solicitation of Input From Stakeholders Regarding Assessments Focused on Improving Food Aid and Providing Safe Water AGENCY: National Institute of Food and Agriculture, USDA. ACTION: Notice; request for public comment. SUMMARY: The National Institute of Food...

  12. Assessing Riverside Community College Nursing Student Attitudes toward Exposure to AIDS/HIV-Positive Patients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kross, Carolyn Sue

    In fall 1990, a study was conducted to assess the attitudes of nursing students who were attending Riverside Community College (RCC), in California, toward exposure to Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome/Human Immunodeficiency Virus (AIDS/HIV) positive patients in a hospital setting. All students enrolled in RCC's associate degree nursing program…

  13. When Summative Computer-Aided Assessments Go Wrong: Disaster Recovery after a Major Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harwood, Ian

    2005-01-01

    This case study outlines the events of a recent summative computer-aided assessment (CAA) failure involving 280 first-year undergraduate students. Post-test analysis found that the central server had become unexpectedly overloaded, thereby causing the CAA to be abandoned. Practical advice on just what to do in the event of a summative CAA failure…

  14. Using a Technology-Based Case to Aid in Improving Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zelin, Robert C., II

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes how a technology-based case using Microsoft Access can aid in the assessment process. A case was used in lieu of giving a final examination in an Accounting Information Systems course. Students worked in small groups to design a database-driven payroll system for a hypothetical company. Each group submitted its results along…

  15. Effective Computer-Aided Assessment of Mathematics; Principles, Practice and Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenhow, Martin

    2015-01-01

    This article outlines some key issues for writing effective computer-aided assessment (CAA) questions in subjects with substantial mathematical or statistical content, especially the importance of control of random parameters and the encoding of wrong methods of solution (mal-rules) commonly used by students. The pros and cons of using CAA and…

  16. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    PubMed

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  17. Estimation of the standardized risk difference and ratio in a competing risks framework: application to injection drug use and progression to AIDS after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J

    2015-02-15

    There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS.

  18. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  19. Assessing the cancer risk from environmental PCBs.

    PubMed Central

    Cogliano, V J

    1998-01-01

    A new approach to assessing the cancer risk from environmental polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) considers both toxicity and environmental processes to make distinctions among environmental mixtures. New toxicity information from a 1996 cancer study of four commercial mixtures strengthens the case that all PCB mixtures can cause cancer, although different mixtures have different potencies. Environmental processes alter PCB mixtures through partitioning, chemical transformation, and preferential bioaccumulation; these processes can increase or decrease toxicity considerably. Bioaccumulated PCBs are of greatest concern because they appear to be more toxic than commercial PCBs and more persistent in the body. The new approach uses toxicity studies of commercial mixtures to develop a range of cancer potency estimates and then considers the effect of environmental processes to choose appropriate values for representative classes of environmental mixtures. Guidance is given for assessing risks from different exposure pathways, less-than-lifetime and early-life exposures, and mixtures containing dioxinlike compounds. PMID:9618347

  20. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  1. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-11-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  2. The Chornobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Bar`yakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.; Kholosha, V.; Shestopalov, V.

    1999-10-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chornobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chornobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chornobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  3. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-01-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  4. Degraded environments alter prey risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2012-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment.

  5. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  6. Technology-aided assessment of sensorimotor function in early infancy.

    PubMed

    Allievi, Alessandro G; Arichi, Tomoki; Gordon, Anne L; Burdet, Etienne

    2014-01-01

    There is a pressing need for new techniques capable of providing accurate information about sensorimotor function during the first 2 years of childhood. Here, we review current clinical methods and challenges for assessing motor function in early infancy, and discuss the potential benefits of applying technology-assisted methods. We also describe how the use of these tools with neuroimaging, and in particular functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), can shed new light on the intra-cerebral processes underlying neurodevelopmental impairment. This knowledge is of particular relevance in the early infant brain, which has an increased capacity for compensatory neural plasticity. Such tools could bring a wealth of knowledge about the underlying pathophysiological processes of diseases such as cerebral palsy; act as biomarkers to monitor the effects of possible therapeutic interventions; and provide clinicians with much needed early diagnostic information.

  7. Technology-Aided Assessment of Sensorimotor Function in Early Infancy

    PubMed Central

    Allievi, Alessandro G.; Arichi, Tomoki; Gordon, Anne L.; Burdet, Etienne

    2014-01-01

    There is a pressing need for new techniques capable of providing accurate information about sensorimotor function during the first 2 years of childhood. Here, we review current clinical methods and challenges for assessing motor function in early infancy, and discuss the potential benefits of applying technology-assisted methods. We also describe how the use of these tools with neuroimaging, and in particular functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), can shed new light on the intra-cerebral processes underlying neurodevelopmental impairment. This knowledge is of particular relevance in the early infant brain, which has an increased capacity for compensatory neural plasticity. Such tools could bring a wealth of knowledge about the underlying pathophysiological processes of diseases such as cerebral palsy; act as biomarkers to monitor the effects of possible therapeutic interventions; and provide clinicians with much needed early diagnostic information. PMID:25324827

  8. Depression in primary care: assessing suicide risk

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Chung Wai Mark; How, Choon How; Ng, Yin Ping

    2017-01-01

    Major depression is a common condition seen in the primary care setting. This article describes the suicide risk assessment of a depressed patient, including practical aspects of history-taking, consideration of factors in deciding if a patient requires immediate transfer for inpatient care and measures to be taken if the patient is not hospitalised. It follows on our earlier article about the approach to management of depression in primary care. PMID:28210741

  9. Point Judith, Rhode Island, Breakwater Risk Assessment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-01

    cycle of storm events includes both the extreme damaging events as well as the operational events that limit safe navigation. 2.5 Wave and water ...compared to the as-built condition is unknown. This report provides a summary of a life- cycle risk assessment of the Point Judith Main breakwater. The... water level climate, probabilistic characteristics of the historical wave and water level climate, simulated breakwater damage and wave overtopping

  10. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    PubMed

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  11. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  12. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  13. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Risk Assessment Criteria B Appendix B to Part 236... B to Part 236—Risk Assessment Criteria The safety-critical performance of each product for which risk assessment is required under this part must be assessed in accordance with the following...

  14. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Risk Assessment Criteria B Appendix B to Part 236... B to Part 236—Risk Assessment Criteria The safety-critical performance of each product for which risk assessment is required under this part must be assessed in accordance with the following...

  15. Assessment of broadcast media airings of AIDS-related public service announcements--United States, 1987-1990.

    PubMed

    1991-08-09

    Television and radio public service announcements (PSAs) are an integral part of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) public information campaigns. This report summarizes an assessment of airings of AIDS PSAs in the United States during October 1987-December 1990 that were produced by CDC's "America Responds to AIDS" (ARTA) campaign and other groups.* The assessment used data obtained from Broadcast Advertisers Reports (BAR) of the Arbitron Company.

  16. Health Costs of Wealth Gains: Labor Migration and Perceptions of HIV/AIDS Risks in Mozambique

    PubMed Central

    Agadjanian, Victor; Arnaldo, Carlos; Cau, Boaventura

    2012-01-01

    The study employs survey data from rural Mozambique to examine how men’s labor migration affects their non-migrating wives’ perceptions of HIV/AIDS risks. Using a conceptual framework centered on tradeoffs between economic security and health risks that men’s migration entails for their left-behind wives, it compares women married to migrants and those married to non-migrants while also distinguishing between economically successful and unsuccessful migration. The analysis finds that the economic success of men’s migration, rather than migration itself, significantly predicts women’s worries about getting infected by their husbands or their own extramarital partners, and their husbands’ stance on condom use. These findings are situated within a broader context of socio-economic, gender, and marital dynamics and vulnerabilities produced or amplified by male labor migration in sub-Saharan and similar developing settings. PMID:22500057

  17. Offshore blowouts, data for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Holand, P.

    1995-12-31

    Blowouts are, besides gas leakages, the major contributor to the total risk for offshore installations. Therefore, the blowout risk is always included in Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) of offshore installations in the Norwegian Sector of the North Sea. SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database has existed since 1984 (until 1990 it was called Marintek`s blowout database). In 1990 the responsibility of the database was transferred to SINTEF Safety and Reliability. Throughout these years the database has been used for assessing blowout risk associated to development and operation of fields offshore Norway. Six oil companies and two consultants are presently sponsoring the database. These companies are using the database when performing risk analyses. During the past three years the database has been subjected to a thorough quality improvement, both with respect to the user interface, and most important, regarding the blowout data included in the database. What is unique with this database, besides the high quality of blowout descriptions, is first that the blowout causes are categorized related to loss of primary and secondary barriers. Secondly that the user interface makes it possible to establish searches to withdraw information regarding any blowout type subjected for specific searches.

  18. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al.

  19. HIV/AIDS knowledge and high risk sexual practices among southern California Vietnamese.

    PubMed Central

    Gellert, G A; Maxwell, R M; Higgins, K V; Mai, K K; Lowery, R; Doll, L

    1995-01-01

    OBJECTIVES--Vietnamese immigration to the U.S. since the conclusion of the Vietnam war has been substantial and in Orange County, CA, Vietnamese Americans comprise 3% of the population (the largest community in the US). Our objective was to collect data on the HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitudes and self-reported high risk behaviours within this community. METHODS--A survey instrument was administered anonymously in Vietnamese to 532 respondents in their homes. Individuals from three population strata were randomly sampled: men 18 to 35 years old (N = 193); men 36 to 45 years old (N = 137); and women 18 to 35 years old (N = 202). Data were gathered on: (1) degree of acculturation; (2) knowledge and attitudes towards HIV/AIDS; and (3) self-reported sexual and other high risk practices. RESULTS--Survey data indicated that 38% of respondents were very worried about themselves and 83% were worried about a family member getting AIDS. Knowledge about actual modes of HIV transmission was generally accurate, but a substantial minority still believed that HIV can be transmitted through casual contact, and 68% from needles used in hospitals. Women demonstrated less accurate knowledge than men on five key items. Quarantine of the HIV infected was agreed to by 45%. Twenty-nine percent did not believe that the epidemic would affect them personally, and 49% stated that they did not have enough information about AIDS to protect themselves. Regarding sexual practices, 31% reported never having had sex. Of the others, 8% had two or more sexual partners in the prior 12 months. No same sex behaviour was reported. Six percent of men had visited a female prostitute; of these, 24% had visited 2 or more in the prior 12 months; half of encounters in this time period were outside the US. Substantial percentages of sexually active, unmarried respondents indicated that they never use (17-40%) or only sometimes use (10-32%) condoms. Less than 1% had used injection drugs. CONCLUSIONS

  20. Project Fox: Assessing Risks Posed By Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.; Chen, X.; Liu, W.; Manchev, P.; Paté-Cornell, M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to make decisions on how to invest limited research dollars on asteroid surveillance and mitigation options, an analytic understanding of the risks posed by impacts is necessary. Qualitative and quantitative studies have been performed to assess such risks, and some reasonable point estimates have been proposed. However, since consequential asteroid impacts tend to be rare events, point estimates and expected annual death rates do not adequately convey the heavy tail of the distribution, potentially leading to misguided resource allocations. We propose and develop a framework for new risk measures, including a distribution over the number of fatalities from asteroid impacts and the probability of a globally consequential impact. We implement a simulation of asteroid impacts using probabilistic inputs for impactor characteristics, and a Poisson process for asteroid arrivals over the next 100 years. Simulation results indicate that a significant portion of the risk to humans comes from asteroids in the 300-1000 meter diameter range; this is because asteroid impacts in this range can produce global effects, and are more frequent than those from asteroids greater than 1km in diameter. The relative importance of this size regime in overall asteroid impact risk is robust in simulation results, and we find the magnitude of risks is still sensitive to factors that contribute global effects from an asteroid impact. Initial results are provided on the sensitivity of impact risks to various mitigation measures, including 'civil defense' methods. These results underscore the need for next-generation survey missions, and can help provide the basis for setting future space telescope observation requirements.

  1. Understanding the link between trafficking in persons and HIV and AIDS risk in Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Kamazima, Switbert R; Ezekiel, Mangi J; Kazaura, Method R; Fimbo, Benett

    2012-01-01

    The magnitude of trafficking in persons in Tanzania is unknown. Consequently, available information on health risks of persons trafficked for different forms of exploitation is extremely scanty. We conducted a baseline study in eight administrative regions of Tanzania using both qualitative and quantitative methods to generate data on the health conditions of trafficked persons to inform trafficking in persons control measures through HIV and AIDS interventions. Study participants included the national, regional and district community development officers, district medical officers, local government leaders, managers or representatives of non-governmental organizations involved in anti-trafficking in persons activities, members of the community and victims. Findings indicated that common forms of labour into which persons are trafficked include domestic services, agriculture (farming), construction, mining/quarrying, fishing, lumbering and manufacturing. Trafficked persons are reported to be exposed to risks like overcrowding, long working hours, psychological problems, physical injuries, impotence, breathing problems and sexually transmitted infections including HIV. It is concluded that the reported occupational hazards in industries where trafficked persons are forced into are not specific to trafficked persons as they affect all labourers. However, the underground nature of the trafficking in persons process increases health problems and risks, including the vulnerability to HIV infection. More tailored research is needed, especially to find means of how to reach out and provide services to this particular vulnerable population, validate labour forms of exploitation into which persons are trafficked to enable the integration or mainstreaming of HIV and AIDS and trafficking in persons at the policy and programmatic levels. In addition, findings would facilitate the understanding of the link between increased risk of IRV and trafficking in persons.

  2. Risk and Protective Factors for Bullying Victimization among AIDS-Affected and Vulnerable Children in South Africa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cluver, Lucie; Bowes, Lucy; Gardner, Frances

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: To examine whether bullying is a risk factor for psychological distress among children in poor, urban South Africa. To determine risk and protective factors for bullying victimization. Method: One thousand and fifty children were interviewed in deprived neighborhoods, including orphans, AIDS-affected children, street children, and…

  3. Effective Communication of Risks to Young Adults: Using Message Framing and Visual Aids to Increase Condom Use and Std Screening

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T.

    2011-01-01

    Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs)--including HIV/AIDS--are among the most common infectious diseases in young adults. How can we effectively promote prevention and detection of STDs in this high risk population? In a two-phase longitudinal experiment we examined the effects of a brief risk awareness intervention (i.e., a sexual health…

  4. Gender and class differences in young people's sexuality and HIV/AIDS risk-taking behaviours in Thailand.

    PubMed

    Thianthai, Chulanee

    2004-05-01

    This study examines gender and class differences in young people's beliefs about sexuality and HIV/AIDS risk-taking behaviours in Thailand. Sixty young people aged 15-19, divided equally by gender and socioeconomic background, participated in focus groups and in-depth interviews. Four topics were explored: the differences between 'good' and 'bad' girls/boys; young people's perceptions of sexuality; social class variations in young people's knowledge of HIV/AIDS and perceptions of risk; and the most influential institutions shaping young people's sexual attitudes. Results showed that young people screened potential sexual partners utilizing an image of 'good girls/boys' as potential HIV/AIDS-free partners; young people defined sexuality in terms of love/sexual relationships, premarital sex, promiscuity, and virginity; and HIV/AIDS awareness varied according to class. Young people of all classes failed to demonstrate an in-depth understanding of how they can contract AIDS. They neither viewed themselves as being in an at-risk group, nor considered their sexual behaviours to be at-risk behaviours. Finally, family, friends, and mass media were reported to be among the most influential institutions shaping young people's sexual attitudes. In the struggle against HIV/AIDS, these institutions together with health education not only protect but also can empower young people in Thailand.

  5. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  6. Information needs assessment for HIV/AIDS and STIs in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

    PubMed

    Tawilah, J; Tawil, O; Bassiri, S; Ziady, H

    2002-11-01

    We assessed information needs about HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections (STI) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region by surveying a sample of people considered knowledgeable about the subject. Respondents felt that information on certain areas of HIV/AIDS/STIs was much needed. Health care workers were perceived to see a high need for information and services generally. Religious and community leaders were perceived to see less need for some information and services (such as condom promotion, sex education for young people). All groups were perceived to see a need for education and services for people living with AIDS and drug users. Television and radio were considered the best channels for health education while training was seen as the most effective method for information exchange.

  7. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  8. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we provide context for this report

  9. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  10. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  11. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  12. Workshop overview: Arsenic research and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Sams, Reeder Wolf, Douglas C.; Ramasamy, Santhini; Ohanian, Ed; Chen, Jonathan; Lowit, Anna

    2007-08-01

    The chronic exposure of humans through consumption of high levels of inorganic arsenic (iAs)-contaminated drinking water is associated with skin lesions, peripheral vascular disease, hypertension, and cancers. Additionally, humans are exposed to organic arsenicals when used as pesticides and herbicides (e.g., monomethylarsonic acid, dimethylarsinic acid (DMA{sup V}) also known as cacodylic acid). Extensive research has been conducted to characterize the adverse health effects that result from exposure to iAs and its metabolites to describe the biological pathway(s) that lead to adverse health effects. To further this effort, on May 31, 2006, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) sponsored a meeting entitled 'Workshop on Arsenic Research and Risk Assessment'. The invited participants from government agencies, academia, independent research organizations and consultants were asked to present their current research. The overall focus of these research efforts has been to determine the potential human health risks due to environmental exposures to arsenicals. Pursuant in these efforts is the elucidation of a mode of action for arsenicals. This paper provides a brief overview of the workshop goals, regulatory context for arsenical research, mode of action (MOA) analysis in human health risk assessment, and the application of MOA analysis for iAs and DMA{sup V}. Subsequent papers within this issue will present the research discussed at the workshop, ensuing discussions, and conclusions of the workshop.

  13. AIDS knowledge, condom attitudes, and risk-taking sexual behavior of substance-abusing juvenile offenders on probation or parole.

    PubMed

    Robertson, A; Levin, M L

    1999-10-01

    AIDS knowledge, condom attitudes, and sexual behavior were examined in a sample of 193 substance-abusing juvenile offenders on probation or parole. The majority of these youths reported being sexually active, and many admitted to early onset of sexual activity as well as unsafe sexual practices. Potential predictors of condom use by these juveniles were examined including age, condom use at first sexual experience, number of sexual partners in the last 6 months, locus of control, AIDS knowledge, condom attitudes, perceived risk for AIDS, self-efficacy for avoiding HIV, condom use by peers, delinquency risk, race, and gender. General attitudes toward condoms and the reported use of a condom at first sexual intercourse experience were the only statistically significant predictors of subsequent condom use. The relevance of these findings to the development of AIDS prevention programs for juvenile offenders is discussed.

  14. Study to assess the prevalence, nature and extent of cognitive impairment in people living with AIDS

    PubMed Central

    Muniyandi, Karthigaipriya; Venkatesan, J.; Arutselvi, T.; Jayaseelan, V.

    2012-01-01

    Background: HIV directly affects the brain and produces varied psychiatric manifestations. 10-30% of patients with AIDS were found to have cognitive impairment and the virus is isolated in the CSF in 70% of AIDS patients. Aim: The present study is aimed at finding out the prevalence, nature, and extent of cognitive changes in AIDS patients. Materials and Methods: The consecutive sample of 33 patients with AIDS attending the ART center of our college were clinically interviewed and administered MMSE, BGT, Wechsler Memory Scale, and International HIV Dementia Scale. Results: In clinical assessment, only 1/33 (3%) patients could be diagnosed as dementia in HIV disease (ICD10-F02.4). This confirms the current Indian reports which indicate a lower prevalence of HIV dementia in our population. 2/33 (6%) patients were recognized to have mild cognitive disorder due to HIV disease (ICD10-F06.7). Asymptomatic cognitive impairment is very common in AIDS patients and it was noted in 69% of our study population. In the tests, MMSE was positive in only 3 of the 33 patients (9%) and it was not helpful to recognize cognitive deficits in our patients. The Wechsler Memory Scale was abnormal in 18 of the 33 patients (55%). BGT was abnormal in 48.5% of patients. The International HIV Dementia Scale was the most sensitive instrument and 63.6% the patients had abnormal scores in this scale. Conclusion: Tests which assess cognitive and motor speed may be more helpful than clinical psychiatric interview to spot the AIDS patients who have cognitive impairment. PMID:22988322

  15. A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

  16. A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

    PubMed

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

  17. [Thinking on risk assessment and risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    PubMed

    Yu, Xueqing; Xie, Yanming; Wang, Yongyan

    2012-01-01

    Drug risk assessment and management is an important measure for reducing the adverse drug reaction and enhancing medication safety of the patient. Based on the concepts of drug risk assessment and risk management, and domestic and international drug risk management situation, this paper discusses the risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine.

  18. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  19. INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT - RESULTS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assess...

  20. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  1. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  2. Dosimetry and Risk Assessment: Fundamental Concepts

    SciTech Connect

    Fisher, Darrell R.

    2005-12-29

    Radiation dosimetry is important for characterizing radiation exposures and for risk assessment. In a medical setting, dosimetry is important for evaluating the safety of administered radiopharmaceuticals and for planning the safe administration of therapeutic radionuclides. Environmental dosimetry helps establish the safety of radionuclide releases from electric power production and other human activities. Internal and external dosimetry help us understand the consequences of radiation exposure. The absorbed dose is the fundamental quantity in radiation dosimetry from which all other operational values in radiation protection are obtained. Equivalent dose to tissue and effective dose to the whole body are derivatives of absorbed dose and constructs of risk. Mathematical systems supported by computer software facilitate dose calculations and make it possible to estimate internal dose based on bioassay or other biokinetic data. Risk coefficients for radiation-induced cancer rely primarily on data from animal studies and long-term observations of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bomb survivors. Low-dose research shows that mechanisms of radiation interactions with tissue are dose-dependent, but the resulting biological effects are not necessarily linear with absorbed dose. Thus, the analysis of radiation effects and associated risks must account for the influences of microscopic energy distributions at the cellular level, dose-rate, cellular repair of sub-lethal radiation damage, and modifying factors such as bystander effects, adaptive response, and genomic instability.

  3. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol.

    PubMed

    Toyofuku, Hajime

    2006-01-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world.

  4. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: a comparison of commonly used risk scoring programs.

    PubMed

    Ulusoy, Sükrü

    2013-12-01

    Several calculation modalities are used today for cardiovascular risk assessment. Cardiovascular risk assessment should be performed in all hypertensive patients. Risk assessment methods being based on the population in which the patient lives and the inclusion of factors such as ethnicity variations, socioeconomic status, and medication use will contribute to improvements in risk assessments. The results should be shared with the patient, and modifiable risk factors must be effectively treated.

  5. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  6. Key findings: a qualitative assessment of provider and patient perceptions of HIV/AIDS in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Ransom, James; Johnson, Anton F

    2009-01-01

    In 1997, at the Davos International Economic Forum, Nelson Mandela stated that "the poor, the vulnerable, the unschooled, the socially marginalized, the women, and the children, those who bear the burden of colonial legacy-these are the sectors of society which bear the burden of AIDS" (Richter, 2001). Nearly a decade later, that statement still holds true, especially in Mr. Mandela's home country. South Africa continues to have one of the world's highest prevalence ratios of HIV infection (UNAIDS, 2002). This paper explores the significance of perceptions, knowledge, practices, and attitudes toward HIV/AIDS in two important groups in South Africa: health care providers based in public health clinics and their patients. This paper will assess the provider-patient interaction from the perspective of members of the South African HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention community. The analysis will examine the results of in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with providers and patients, respectively, in two of South Africa's nine provinces. Between December 2002 and April 2003 in Guateng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, we conducted (1) in-depth interviews of a spectrum of health care providers at five local public health clinics and (2) focus groups of patients who patronize those clinics. The results show that there are gaps in the HIV/AIDS knowledge of some of the health care providers and that the participants' health beliefs and practices are embedded in the social conditions in which they live and work, which has a ripple effect on their risk behaviors and trumps any intervention messages from their health care providers and larger public health intervention messages.

  7. Risk assessment of soybean-based phytoestrogens.

    PubMed

    Kwack, Seung Jun; Kim, Kyu-Bong; Kim, Hyung Sik; Yoon, Kyung Sil; Lee, Byung Mu

    2009-01-01

    Koreans generally consume high quantities of soybean-based foods that contain a variety of phytoestrogens, such as, daidzein, zenistein, and biochalin A. However, phytoestrogens are considered to be potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDC), which interfere with the normal function of the hormonal and reproductive systems. Therefore, dietary exposure to soybean-based phytoestrogens is of concern for Koreans, and comparative dietary risk assessments are required between Japanese (high consumers) versus Americans (low consumers). In this study, a relative risk assessment was conducted based upon daily intake levels of soybean-based foods and phytoestrogens in a Korean cohort, and the risks of photoestrogens were compared with those posed by estradiol and other EDC. Koreans approximately 30-49 yr of age consume on average a total of 135.2 g/d of soy-based foods including soybean, soybean sauce, soybean paste, and soybean oil, and 0.51 mg/kg body weight (bw)/d of phytoestrogens such as daidzein and genistein. Using estimated daily intakes (EDI) and estrogenic potencies (EP), margins of safety (MOS) were calculated where 0.05 is for estradiol (MOS value <1, considered to exert a positive estrogenic effect); thus, MOS values of 1.89 for Japanese, 1.96 for Koreans, and 5.55 for Americans indicate that consumption of soybean-based foods exerted no apparent estrogenic effects, as all MOS values were all higher than 1. For other synthetic EDC used as reference values, MOS values were dieldrin 27, nonylphenol 250, butyl benzyl phthalate 321, bisphenol A 1000, biochanin A 2203, and coumesterol 2898. These results suggest that dietary exposure to phytoestrogens, such as daidzein and genistein, poses a relatively higher health risk for humans than synthetic EDC, although MOS values were all greater than 1.

  8. Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, R. Karl

    2005-01-01

    Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

  9. 78 FR 23901 - Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-23

    ... Food Safety and Inspection Service Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail... risk assessment (QRA), ``Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens... and on the FSIS Web site at http://www.fsis.usda.gov/PDF/Listeria-Transcript_062309.pdf ). II....

  10. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    SciTech Connect

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  11. Assessing risk of solid waste compost

    SciTech Connect

    Dyer, J.M.; Razvi, A.S. )

    1987-03-01

    This paper addresses the movement of metals in soils and their accumulation in plants. Research with sewage sludge compost indicates that these risks can be minimized with proper handling and management. The objectives of this study were: (I) to evaluate potential groundwater contamination due to plant nutrients and heavy metals in the compost; and (II) to assess the accumulation of metals in plants grown on compost-amended soil. Data are presented for analyses of nickel, lead, cadmium, copper and zinc in snap beans.

  12. Command hallucinations, compliance, and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hersh, K; Borum, R

    1998-01-01

    Command hallucinations are auditory hallucinations that instruct a patient to act in specific ways; these commands can range in seriousness from innocuous to life-threatening. This article summarizes two areas of research regarding command hallucinations: rates of compliance with command hallucinations; and factors associated with compliance. Researchers have reported rates of compliance ranging from 39.2 percent to 88.5 percent. Compliance has not been consistently related to dangerousness of commands. Instead, research suggests that Individuals are more likely to comply with commands if they recognize the hallucinated voice and if their hallucinations are related to a delusion. Implications for risk assessment are discussed in light of the research.

  13. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  14. Anthropometry in cardio-metabolic risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Mišigoj-Duraković, Marjeta; Sorić, Maroje; Duraković, Zijad

    2014-03-01

    High prevalence of obesity, as a major public health problem, is connected with chronic cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. That is why some simple anthropometric parameters were developed to estimate overweight and obesity, and in the primary screening of risk groups. In this field, body mass index (BMI) is the most frequent parameter, both in epidemiological research and in everyday practice. It is a part of the algorithm used in the early detection of overweight and obese persons. However, BMI does not provide any data on body composition. This is why it is particularly insufficient in estimating body mass in physically active persons and in athletes who are often overweight, with a higher proportion of lean body mass but without any excess fat, as well as in those with normal weight but lower than normal lean body mass and/ or gentle skeleton. Over the last few decades, attention has been especially directed to different body fat distribution in relation to chronic cardio-vascular and metabolic diseases. Waist circumference (WC) is the best anthropometric predictor of cardiovascular risk. It is considered an indirect parameter of visceral fat. WC and waist-to-hip ratio are good parameters showing body fat distribution and cardio-metabolic risk. Waist-to-height ratio is suggested by some authors to be an even better parameter of cardio-vascular risk and metabolic syndrome. Hypertriglyceridemia combined with increased WC is considered a marker of atherogenic metabolic risk. The paper also deals with procedures of body composition analysis. Anthropometric assessment of body composition analysis belongs to a group of simple and inexpensive procedures. Development of generalised equations for body density prediction introduced anthropometric methods in the analysis of body composition in everyday practice.

  15. NEUROBEHAVIORAL TESTING IN HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

    PubMed Central

    Rohlman, Diane S.; Lucchini, Roberto; Anger, W. Kent; Bellinger, David C.; van Thriel, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    Neurobehavioral tests are being increasingly used in human risk assessment and there is a strong need for guidance. The field of neurobehavioral toxicology has evolved from research which initially focused on using traditional neuropsychological tests to identify “abnormal cases” to include methods used to detect sub-clinical deficits, to further incorporate the use of neurosensory assessment, and to expand testing from occupational populations to vulnerable populations including older adults and children. Even as exposures in the workplace are reduced, they have been increasing in the environment and research on exposure has now expanded to cross the entire lifetime. These neurobehavioral methods are applied in research and the findings used for regulatory purposes to develop preventative action for exposed populations. This paper reflects a summary of the talks presented at the symposium presented at the 11th meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association. PMID:18539229

  16. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  17. Assessing the impact of international conservation aid on deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bare, Matthew; Kauffman, Craig; Miller, Daniel C.

    2015-12-01

    International conservation donors have spent at least 3.4 billion to protect biodiversity and stem tropical deforestation in Africa since the early 1990s. Despite more than two decades of experience, however, there is little research on the effect of this aid at a region-wide scale. Numerous case studies exist, but show mixed results. Existing research is usually based on community perception or focused on short-term donor objectives rather than specific conservation outcomes, like deforestation rates. Thus, the impact of billions of dollars of conservation aid on deforestation rates remains an open question. This article uses an original dataset to analyze the effect of international conservation aid on deforestation rates in 42 African countries between 2000 and 2013. We first describe patterns of conservation aid across the continent and then assess its impact (with one to five-year lags), controlling for other factors that may also affect deforestation, including rural population, protected areas (PAs), governance, and other economic and commodity production variables. We find that conservation aid is associated with higher rates of forest loss after one- or two-year lags. A similar result holds for PA extent, suggesting possible displacement of deforestation from PAs. However, governance quality in high forest cover countries moderates these effects such that deforestation rates are reduced. Rural population is the most consistent factor associated with forest loss, confirming previous studies of this driver. Our results suggest that in heavily forested countries, development projects designed to support conservation work initially in conditions of good governance, but that conservation aid alone is insufficient to mitigate larger deforestation drivers.

  18. Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2007-08-01

    The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

  19. Prospective study of attitudinal and relationship predictors of sexual risk in the multicenter AIDS cohort study.

    PubMed

    Ostrow, David G; Silverberg, Michael J; Cook, Robert L; Chmiel, Joan S; Johnson, Lisette; Li, Xiuhong; Jacobson, Lisa P

    2008-01-01

    We examined the influence of attitudes concerning HIV transmission, safe sex, and sexual sensation seeking, as well as negotiated risk reduction with primary partners, on the proportion of unprotected sexual partners (%UASP) among men who have sex with men (MSM). Participants were 263 HIV-seropositive and 238 HIV-seronegative MSM in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study between 1999 and 2003 who completed a 20-item attitude survey twice. Behavioral data were collected concurrently and 6-12 months after each survey. Among seropositives, decreased HIV concern and increased safer sex fatigue were associated with higher %UASP at 6 and 12 months. Among seronegatives, increased %UASP at 12 months was associated with safer sex fatigue. At 6 months and 12 months, risk reduction agreements were associated with increased %UASP among seronegatives in seroconcordant monogamous relationships, reflecting their abandonment of condoms in such partnerships. We conclude that HIV prevention efforts should target modifiable attitudes (reduced concern about HIV and safer sex fatigue) and increases in sexual risk-taking of MSM, particularly among HIV+ men having sex with serodiscordant partners.

  20. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  1. Cyanide analyses for risk and treatability assessments

    SciTech Connect

    MacFarlane, I.D.; Elseroad, H.J.; Pergrin, D.E.; Logan, C.M.

    1994-12-31

    Cyanide, an EPA priority pollutant and target analyte, is typically measured as total. However, cyanide complexation, information which is not acquired through total cyanide analysis, is often a driver of cyanide toxicity and treatability. A case study of a former manufacture gas plant (MGP) is used to demonstrate the usability of various cyanide analytical methods for risk and treatability assessments. Several analytical methods, including cyanide amenable to chlorination and weak acid dissociable cyanide help test the degree of cyanide complexation. Generally, free or uncomplexed cyanide is more biologically available, toxic, and reactive than complexed cyanide. Extensive site testing has shown that free and weakly dissociable cyanide composes only a small fraction of total cyanide as would be expected from the literature, and that risk assessment will be more realistic considering cyanide form. Likewise, aqueous treatment for cyanide can be properly tested if cyanide form is accounted for. Weak acid dissociable cyanide analyses proved to be the most reliable (and potentially acceptable) cyanide method, as well as represent the most toxic and reactive cyanide forms.

  2. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersion 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.

  3. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  4. Actuarial assessment of risk among sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E

    2003-06-01

    The appraisal of risk among sex offenders has seen recent advances through the advent of actuarial assessments. Statistics derived from Relative Operating Characteristics (ROCs) permit the comparison of predictive accuracies achieved by different instruments even among samples that exhibit different base rates of recidivism. Such statistics cannot, however, solve problems introduced when items from actuarial tools are omitted, when reliability is low, or when there is high between-subject variability in the duration of the follow-up. We present empirical evidence suggesting that when comprehensive actuarial tools (VRAG and SORAG) are scored with high reliability, without missing items, and when samples of offenders have fixed and equal opportunity for recidivism, predictive accuracies are maximized near ROC areas of 0.90. Although the term "dynamic" has not been consistently defined, such accuracies leave little room for further improvement in long-term prediction by dynamic risk factors. We address the mistaken idea that long-term, static risk levels have little relevance for clinical intervention with sex offenders. We conclude that highly accurate prediction of violent criminal recidivism can be achieved by means of highly reliable and thorough scoring of comprehensive multi-item actuarial tools using historical items (at least until potent therapies are identified). The role of current moods, attitudes, insights, and physiological states in causing contemporaneous behavior notwithstanding, accurate prediction about which sex offenders will commit at least one subsequent violent offense can be accomplished using complete information about past conduct.

  5. Classification accuracy of actuarial risk assessment instruments.

    PubMed

    Neller, Daniel J; Frederick, Richard I

    2013-01-01

    Users of commonly employed actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) hope to generate numerical probability statements about risk; however, ARAI manuals often do not explicitly report data that are essential for understanding the classification accuracy of the instruments. In addition, ARAI manuals often contain data that have the potential for misinterpretation. The authors of the present article address the accurate generation of probability statements. First, they illustrate how the reporting of numerical probability statements based on proportions rather than predictive values can mislead users of ARAIs. Next, they report essential test characteristics that, to date, have gone largely unreported in ARAI manuals. Then they discuss a graphing method that can enhance the practice of clinicians who communicate risk via numerical probability statements. After the authors review several strategies for selecting optimal cut-off scores, they show how the graphing method can be used to estimate positive predictive values for each cut-off score of commonly used ARAIs, across all possible base rates. They also show how the graphing method can be used to estimate base rates of violent recidivism in local samples.

  6. Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Lipsitch, Marc; Barclay, Wendy; Raman, Rahul; Russell, Charles J; Belser, Jessica A; Cobey, Sarah; Kasson, Peter M; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Riley, Steven; Beauchemin, Catherine AA; Bedford, Trevor; Friedrich, Thomas C; Handel, Andreas; Herfst, Sander; Murcia, Pablo R; Roche, Benjamin; Wilke, Claus O; Russell, Colin A

    2016-01-01

    The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18491.001 PMID:27834632

  7. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  8. Computer-aided quantitative bone scan assessment of prostate cancer treatment response

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Matthew S.; Chu, Gregory H.; Kim, Hyun J.; Allen-Auerbach, Martin; Poon, Cheryce; Bridges, Juliette; Vidovic, Adria; Ramakrishna, Bharath; Ho, Judy; Morris, Michael J.; Larson, Steven M.; Scher, Howard I.; Goldin, Jonathan G.

    2012-01-01

    Objective The development and evaluation of a computer-aided bone scan analysis technique to quantify changes in tumor burden and assess treatment effects in prostate cancer clinical trials. Methods We have developed and report on a commercial fully automated computer-aided detection system. Using this system, scan images were intensity normalized, then lesions identified and segmented by anatomic region-specific intensity thresholding. Detected lesions were compared against expert markings to assess the accuracy of the computer-aided detection system. The metrics Bone Scan Lesion Area, Bone Scan Lesion Intensity, and Bone Scan Lesion Count were calculated from identified lesions, and their utility in assessing treatment effects was evaluated by analyzing before and after scans from metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients: 10 treated and 10 untreated. In this study, patients were treated with cabozantinib, a MET/VEGF inhibitor resulting in high rates of resolution of bone scan abnormalities. Results Our automated computer-aided detection system identified bone lesion pixels with 94% sensitivity, 89% specificity, and 89% accuracy. Significant differences in changes from baseline were found between treated and untreated groups in all assessed measurements derived by our system. The most significant measure, Bone Scan Lesion Area, showed a median (interquartile range) change from baseline at week 6 of 7.13% (27.61) in the untreated group compared with −73.76% (45.38) in the cabozantinib-treated group (P = 0.0003). Conclusions Our system accurately and objectively identified and quantified metastases in bone scans, allowing for interpatient and intrapatient comparison. It demonstrates potential as an objective measurement of treatment effects, laying the foundation for validation against other clinically relevant outcome measures. PMID:22367858

  9. HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitudes and risk behaviours among Orang Asli in Peninsular Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Anita, S; Zahir, W M; Sa'iah, A; Rahimah, M A; Sha'ari, B N

    2007-08-01

    Orang Asli, the indigenous people of Peninsular Malaysia comprises only 0.5% of total Malaysia population but contribute to 0.06% of total notified HIV cases in the country. Their current knowledge, attitude and practice related to HIV was not known. A cross-sectional study on knowledge, attitude and practice among Orang Asli in Peninsular Malaysia was carried out involving 2706 Orang Asli from 33 remote and 47 fringe villages. Generally, the level of knowledge was fair (30%-50%) with mean scores of 55.7% (SD 31.7) while attitudes were negative. There was gender bias towards misconception on HIV transmission and sources of information. HIV seroprevalence of 0.3% was detected while risk behaviors were low. This study provides baseline information for HIV/AIDS preventive programs to the Orang Asli communities.

  10. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  11. Results from a randomized trial of a web-based, tailored decision aid for women at high risk for breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Banegas, Matthew P.; McClure, Jennifer B.; Barlow, William E.; Ubel, Peter A.; Smith, Dylan M.; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J.; Greene, Sarah M.; Fagerlin, Angela

    2013-01-01

    Objective To assess the impact of Guide to Decide (GtD), a web-based, personally-tailored decision aid designed to inform women’s decisions about prophylactic tamoxifen and raloxifene use. Methods Postmenopausal women, age 46–74, with BCRAT 5-year risk ≥1.66% and no prior history of breast cancer were randomized to one of three study arms: intervention (n = 690), Time 1 control (n = 160), or 3-month control (n = 162). Intervention participants viewed GtD prior to completing a post-test and 3 month follow-up assessment. Controls did not. We assessed the impact of GtD on women’s decisional conflict levels and treatment decision behavior at post-test and at 3 months, respectively. Results Intervention participants had significantly lower decisional conflict levels at post-test (p < 0.001) and significantly higher odds of making a decision about whether or not to take prophylactic tamoxifen or raloxifene at 3-month follow-up (p < 0.001) compared to control participants. Conclusion GtD lowered decisional conflict and helped women at high risk of breast cancer decide whether to take prophylactic tamoxifen or raloxifene to reduce their cancer risk. Practice implications Web-based, tailored decision aids should be used more routinely to facilitate informed medical decisions, reduce patients’ decisional conflict, and empower patients to choose the treatment strategy that best reflects their own values. PMID:23395006

  12. Developmental toxicity risk assessment: consensus building, hypothesis formulation, and focused research.

    PubMed

    Kimmel, C A

    1996-01-01

    Risk assessment for developmental toxicity has become more defined over the last decade and the most recent EPA guidelines for developmental toxicity risk assessment were published in 1991. Development of approaches for risk assessment in this area have relied on building of consensus opinion among experts about the interpretation of developmental toxicity data. These discussions have aided in strengthening the scientific basis for risk assessment for developmental toxicity, including the default assumptions that must be used when more complete information on mechanisms of action and pharmacokinetics are unavailable. Such discussions continue on both a national and international basis. The EPA risk assessment guidelines outlined several major areas of research needed to strengthen risk assessment for developmental toxicity and led to the formulation of hypotheses to be tested in focused research projects. Several major research efforts have focused on dose-related mechanisms and biologically based modeling of specific agents, physiologically based pharmacokinetic models of pregnancy that can be scaled across species, and the influence of dose and duration of exposure on developmental outcomes, as well as the delineation of specific biomarkers of adverse developmental effects. Although such research initiatives will require a long-term effort, it is important that attention be focused now on those approaches that can improve the risk assessment process to avoid continued reliance on default approaches that have been used for the past 30 years or more. The impact of the EPA Guidelines for Developmental Toxicity Risk Assessment has been widespread. One of the main purposes for developing risk assessment guidelines by EPA was to communicate procedures to risk assessors inside the agency in an effort to promote consistency. In addition, the guidelines were to communicate to those outside the agency in private industry and other regulatory agencies how EPA would evaluate

  13. 78 FR 36787 - Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-19

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia... the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug Development Without...

  14. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  15. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  16. A service development study of the assessment and management of fracture risk in Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Shribman, Samuel; Torsney, Kelli M; Noyce, Alastair J; Giovannoni, Gavin; Fearnley, Julian; Dobson, Ruth

    2014-06-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is associated with an increased risk of fragility fracture. FRAX and Qfracture are risk calculators that estimate the 10-year risk of hip and major fractures and guide definitive investigation for osteoporosis using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) imaging. It is unclear which PD patients should be considered for fracture risk assessment and whether FRAX or Qfracture should be used. Seventy-seven patients with PD were recruited in the movement disorders clinic. Data were collected on PD-related characteristics and fracture risk scores were calculated. Patients with previous osteoporotic fractures had a higher incidence of falls (p = 0.0026) and use of bilateral walking aids (p = 0.0187) in addition to longer disease duration (p = 0.0037). Selecting patients with falls in combination with either disease duration >5 years, bilateral walking aids, or previous osteoporotic fracture distinguished patients with and without previous osteoporotic fracture with specificity 67.7 % (95 % CI 55.0-78.8) and sensitivity 100.0 % (95 % CI 73.5-100.0). Qfracture calculated significantly higher fracture risk scores than FRAX for hip (p < 0.0001) and major (p = 0.0008) fracture in PD patients. Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated that FRAX outperformed Qfracture with an area under the curve of 0.84 (95 % CI 0.70-0.97, p = 0.0004) for FRAX and 0.68 (95 % CI 52-86, p = 0.0476) for Qfracture major fracture risk calculators. We suggest that falls in combination with either a disease duration longer than 5 years or bilateral walking aids or previous osteoporotic fracture should be used as red flags in PD patients to prompt clinicians to perform a FRAX fracture risk assessment in the neurology clinic.

  17. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  18. A Design Science Research Methodology for Developing a Computer-Aided Assessment Approach Using Method Marking Concept

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Genemo, Hussein; Miah, Shah Jahan; McAndrew, Alasdair

    2016-01-01

    Assessment has been defined as an authentic method that plays an important role in evaluating students' learning attitude in acquiring lifelong knowledge. Traditional methods of assessment including the Computer-Aided Assessment (CAA) for mathematics show limited ability to assess students' full work unless multi-step questions are sub-divided…

  19. [Risk assessment of periodontal disease in Hungary].

    PubMed

    Hermann, Péter; Borbély, Judit; Gera, István; Fejérdy, Pál; Soós, Borbála; Madléna, Melinda

    2011-06-01

    In this study, risk determinants were assessed for periodontal disease in the oral health survey of a representative Hungarian adult population sample. 4153 individuals participated in the study after formal consent. Participants were questionned on level of education, dental office attendance, smoking habits, oral hygiene habits and general health conditions. Quality of fixed partial dentures (FPD) were evaluated. Periodontal health status was assessed with the CPI method according to WHO criteria. When the prevalence of CPI scores was assessed by educational level, significant differences were found between groups. With increasing levels of education, a significantly higher percentage of subjects visited the dental office regularly. Higher prevalence of CPI 0 was found among those with higher level of education but there was also high prevalence of CPI 2, representing bad oral hygiene in the highly educated group. Findings of our study showed high percentage (66%) of the population attending the dental office only in case of emergency. The investigation revealed destructive effect of unsatisfactory construction of FPD on the periodontium. Healthy periodontium (CPI 0) was found among 16% of those wearing no FPD and 9% among FPD-wearers. The prevalence of deep periodontal pockets (CPI 4) was 1,6 times higher among smokers as non-smokers. Oral health statistics play an important role in planning for improvement of dental health care. Hungary needs effective prevention programs and emphasize on regular dental office attendance of individuals to improve the nation's oral health status.

  20. A Successful ED Fall Risk Program Using the KINDER 1 Fall RiskAssessment Tool.

    PubMed

    Townsend, Ann B; Valle-Ortiz, Marisol; Sansweet, Tracy

    2016-11-01

    Emergency nurses did not perform falls risk assessments routinely on our ED patients; the instrument used was aimed at inpatients. We identified a need to revise fall assessment practices specific to our emergency department. The purpose of the performance improvement project was to reduce ED falls and evaluate the use of an ED-specific fall risk tool, the KINDER 1 Fall Risk Assessment. The plan was to establish fall risk assessment practices at point of ED entry and to decrease total falls.

  1. Psychosocial Impact of the AIDS Epidemic on the Lives of Gay Men.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stulberg, Ian; Smith, Margaret

    1988-01-01

    Assessed the psychosocial impact of the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic on the lives of homosexual men (N=301) who had not been diagnosed with AIDS or AIDS Related Complex (ARC). Found subjects reported increasing frequency of no-risk sexual activities and decreased frequency of possible risk and high-risk activities. (ABL)

  2. Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental RiskAssessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

  3. Nanomaterials: a challenge for toxicological risk assessment?

    PubMed

    Haase, Andrea; Tentschert, Jutta; Luch, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology has emerged as one of the central technologies in the twenty-first century. This judgment becomes apparent by considering the increasing numbers of people employed in this area; the numbers of patents, of scientific publications, of products on the market; and the amounts of money invested in R&D. Prospects originating from different fields of nanoapplication seem unlimited. However, nanotechnology certainly will not be able to meet all of the ambitious expectations communicated, yet has high potential to heavily affect our daily life in the years to come. This might occur in particular in the field of consumer products, for example, by introducing nanomaterials in cosmetics, textiles, or food contact materials. Another promising area is the application of nanotechnology in medicine fueling hopes to significantly improve diagnosis and treatment of all kinds of diseases. In addition, novel technologies applying nanomaterials are expected to be instrumental in waste remediation and in the production of efficient energy storage devices and thus may help to overcome world's energy problems or to revolutionize computer and data storage technologies. In this chapter, we will focus on nanomaterials. After a brief historic and general overview, current proposals of how to define nanomaterials will be summarized. Due to general limitations, there is still no single, internationally accepted definition of the term "nanomaterial." After elaborating on the status quo and the scope of nanoanalytics and its shortcomings, the current thinking about possible hazards resulting from nanoparticulate exposures, there will be an emphasis on the requirements to be fulfilled for appropriate health risk assessment and regulation of nanomaterials. With regard to reliable risk assessments, until now there is still the remaining issue to be resolved of whether or not specific challenges and unique features exist on the nanoscale that have to be tackled and distinctively

  4. Ecological risk assessments for watersheds: Lessons learned from case studies

    SciTech Connect

    Marcy, S.K.M.

    1994-12-31

    The USEPA Office of Water and Risk Assessment Forum are co-sponsoring the development of watershed level ecological risk assessments in Big Darby Creek, OH, Clinch River, VA, Middle Platte River Wetlands, NE, Snake River, ID, and Waquoit Bay Estuary, MA. The case studies are testing the Agency`s Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment at a watershed scale for multiple stressors. During case study development much has been learned about how to apply and modify the principles in the Framework to landscape scale risk assessments. Insights include how to select appropriate assessment endpoints to drive the risk assessment, how to effectively increase involvement by risk management teams, and provide decision opportunities for managers throughout development. The case studies demonstrate diverse ways to conduct watershed risk assessments, and illustrate the importance of multiple risk hypotheses in conceptual models addressing the combined and relative risk of chemical, physical and biological stressors. Issues the case studies highlight include the need for a process to determine when watershed risk assessments are appropriate and at what level of complexity they should be performed, how to increase the use of the ecological risk assessments in management decision-making and how to determine the best risk reduction strategy. An update on the watershed case studies will be provided and the insights and issues stated above, discussed.

  5. Association of Ongoing Drug and Alcohol Use with Non-Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy and Higher Risk of AIDS and Death: Results from ACTG 362

    PubMed Central

    COHN, Susan E.; JIANG, Hongyu; MCCUTCHAN, J. Allen; KOLETAR, Susan L.; MURPHY, Robert L.; ROBERTSON, Kevin R.; DESTMAURICE, Annabelle; CURRIER, Judith S.; WILLIAMS, Paige L.

    2011-01-01

    Drug and alcohol use have been associated with a worse prognosis in short-term and cross-sectional analyses of HIV-infected populations, but longitudinal effects on adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and clinical outcomes in advanced AIDS are less well characterized. We assessed self-reported drug and alcohol use in AIDS patients, and examined their association with non-adherence and death or disease progression in a multicenter observational study. We defined non-adherence as reporting missed ART doses in the 48 hours before study visits. The association between drug use and ART non-adherence was evaluated using repeated measures generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. The association between drug and alcohol use and time to new AIDS diagnosis or death was evaluated via Cox regression models, controlling for covariates including ART adherence. Of 643 participants enrolled between 1997–1999 and followed through 2007, at entry 39% reported ever using cocaine, 24% amphetamines, and 10% heroin. Ongoing drug use during study follow-up was reported by 9% using cocaine, 4% amphetamines, and 1% heroin. Hard drug (cocaine, amphetamines, or heroin) users had 2.1 times higher odds (p=0.001) of ART non-adherence in GEE models and 2.5 times higher risk (p=0.04) of AIDS progression or death in Cox models. Use of hard drugs was attenuated as a risk factor for AIDS progression or death after controlling for non-adherence during follow-up (HR=2.11, p=0.08), but was still suggestive of a possible adherence-independent mechanism of harm. This study highlights the need to continuously screen and treat patients for drug use as a part of ongoing HIV care. PMID:21293986

  6. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    SciTech Connect

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  7. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  8. Risk assessment of malicious biocontamination of food.

    PubMed

    Elad, Daniel

    2005-06-01

    Throughout the last decades of the 20th century, the biological threat evolved from primarily a government-controlled weapon to a tool of terrorism. One of the consequences of this trend is the near impossibility of foreseeing when and how an act of bioterrorism will occur. The suitability of food products for such an act stems from the multitude of microorganisms that may be used for contamination and the vulnerability of the products during and after processing. Tests that would enable the detection of a large variety of microorganisms quickly, reliably, and economically should also provide satisfactory means to prevent acts of malicious biocontamination of food products. Until such means become available, a priority-based approach to the problem is probably the most practical. Priorities should be determined based on a systematic risk assessment to define the relative likelihood of a certain microorganism being used in an act of malicious food contamination. Criteria to be evaluated are availability, weaponization processes, delivery of an effective dose, probability of early detection, and the microorganism's resistance to the conditions to which it will be exposed. Because the results of such an assessment may vary according to prevailing conditions, the assessment must be based on the existing circumstances. The results of the assessment should then be applied to the various procedures of food processing, which should further reduce the number of potential microbial threats. Existing methods of screening food for contaminating microorganisms and existing food safety and security procedures such as hazard analysis and critical control point programs may have to be modified to become suitable for the detection of acts of bioterrorism.

  9. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    SciTech Connect

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  10. Impact assessment of risk management interventions.

    PubMed

    Shryock, T R

    2012-04-01

    Much effort has been invested in the development and implementation of international recommendations to manage the risk of foodborne antimicrobial resistance, and monitoring programmes to measure bacterial antimicrobial resistance and antimicrobial product volumes. A variety of approaches have been recommended for various stakeholders in the food animal and food production sectors. Interestingly, much less consideration has been given to the establishment of success criteria for the individual interventions and even less for the cumulative effects, when all interventions are considered together as consecutive 'hurdles' along the food chain. The author explores the outcome and unforeseen consequences of these various interventions and appropriate methods that could provide data to assess their impact, as well as key learning experiences that should lead to refinements of such interventions in the future.

  11. Transitioning to routine breast cancer risk assessment and management in primary care: what can we learn from cardiovascular disease?

    PubMed

    Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Steel, Emma J; Collins, Ian; Emery, Jon; Pirotta, Marie; Mann, G Bruce; Butow, Phyllis; Hopper, John L; Trainer, Alison; Moreton, Jane; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cuzick, Jack; Keogh, Louise

    2016-01-01

    To capitalise on advances in breast cancer prevention, all women would need to have their breast cancer risk formally assessed. With ~85% of Australians attending primary care clinics at least once a year, primary care is an opportune location for formal breast cancer risk assessment and management. This study assessed the current practice and needs of primary care clinicians regarding assessment and management of breast cancer risk. Two facilitated focus group discussions were held with 17 primary care clinicians (12 GPs and 5 practice nurses (PNs)) as part of a larger needs assessment. Primary care clinicians viewed assessment and management of cardiovascular risk as an intrinsic, expected part of their role, often triggered by practice software prompts and facilitated by use of an online tool. Conversely, assessment of breast cancer risk was not routine and was generally patient- (not clinician-) initiated, and risk management (apart from routine screening) was considered outside the primary care domain. Clinicians suggested that routine assessment and management of breast cancer risk might be achieved if it were widely endorsed as within the remit of primary care and supported by an online risk-assessment and decision aid tool that was integrated into primary care software. This study identified several key issues that would need to be addressed to facilitate the transition to routine assessment and management of breast cancer risk in primary care, based largely on the model used for cardiovascular disease.

  12. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  13. Risk Assessment of the Carbon Nanotube Group

    PubMed Central

    Morimoto, Yasuo; Ogura, Isamu; Kobayashi, Norihiro; Naya, Masato; Ema, Makoto; Endoh, Shigehisa; Shimada, Manabu; Ogami, Akira; Myojyo, Toshihiko; Oyabu, Takako; Gamo, Masashi; Kishimoto, Atsuo; Igarashi, Takuya; Hanai, Sosuke

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed the health risks via inhalation and derived the occupational exposure limit (OEL) for the carbon nanotube (CNT) group rather than individual CNT material. We devised two methods: the integration of the intratracheal instillation (IT) data with the inhalation (IH) data, and the “biaxial approach.” A four‐week IH test and IT test were performed in rats exposed to representative materials to obtain the no observed adverse effect level, based on which the OEL was derived. We used the biaxial approach to conduct a relative toxicity assessment of six types of CNTs. An OEL of 0.03 mg/m3 was selected as the criterion for the CNT group. We proposed that the OEL be limited to 15 years. We adopted adaptive management, in which the values are reviewed whenever new data are obtained. The toxicity level was found to be correlated with the Brunauer‐Emmett‐Teller (BET)‐specific surface area (BET‐SSA) of CNT, suggesting the BET‐SSA to have potential for use in toxicity estimation. We used the published exposure data and measurement results of dustiness tests to compute the risk in relation to particle size at the workplace and showed that controlling micron‐sized respirable particles was of utmost importance. Our genotoxicity studies indicated that CNT did not directly interact with genetic materials. They supported the concept that, even if CNT is genotoxic, it is secondary genotoxicity mediated via a pathway of genotoxic damage resulting from oxidative DNA attack by free radicals generated during CNT‐elicited inflammation. Secondary genotoxicity appears to involve a threshold. PMID:25943334

  14. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    PubMed

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment.

  15. Evolutionary Consequences for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gochfeld, Michael; Burger, Joanna

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the use of the human health risk assessment model as a basis for developing ecological risk assessment (ERA). For ERA, risk to individuals is less important than the survival of the population, with the exception of endangered species. Suggests that ERA take into account the relative reproductive value of the potentially impacted…

  16. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT - 1/2007

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA¿s Risk Assessment Forum has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor d...

  17. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  18. Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients’ risk perception and leads to better informed decision making. This paper summarises current “best practices” in communication of evidence-based numeric outcomes for developers of patient decision aids (PtDAs) and other health communication tools. Method An expert consensus group of fourteen researchers from North America, Europe, and Australasia identified eleven main issues in risk communication. Two experts for each issue wrote a “state of the art” summary of best evidence, drawing on the PtDA, health, psychological, and broader scientific literature. In addition, commonly used terms were defined and a set of guiding principles and key messages derived from the results. Results The eleven key components of risk communication were: 1) Presenting the chance an event will occur; 2) Presenting changes in numeric outcomes; 3) Outcome estimates for test and screening decisions; 4) Numeric estimates in context and with evaluative labels; 5) Conveying uncertainty; 6) Visual formats; 7) Tailoring estimates; 8) Formats for understanding outcomes over time; 9) Narrative methods for conveying the chance of an event; 10) Important skills for understanding numerical estimates; and 11) Interactive web-based formats. Guiding principles from the evidence summaries advise that risk communication formats should reflect the task required of the user, should always define a relevant reference class (i.e., denominator) over time, should aim to use a consistent format throughout documents, should avoid “1 in x” formats and variable denominators, consider the magnitude of numbers used and the possibility of format bias, and should take into account the numeracy and graph literacy of the audience. Conclusion A substantial and

  19. Risk Assessment Document for Coke Oven MACT Residual Risk

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The residual risk analysis described in this report addresses four coke plants subject to the 1993coke oven MACT standards (40 CFR Part 63 Subpart L) and estimates potential risks due to HAPsemissions from facilities involved in coking operations.

  20. [Questionnaire to assess advertising campaigns impact about HIV/AIDS prevention].

    PubMed

    Bretón-López, Juana; Buela-Casal, Gualberto

    2006-08-01

    Present work is concerned with a questionnaire aimed to the impact evaluation of a selection of Spanish advertising campaigns about HIV/AIDS prevention. The work objective is to determine reliability and factorial structure of the instrument. It is described the designed questionnaire and its three scales (affective impact scale, cognitive impact scale and behavioural intention impact scale). The sample was composed by 405 high school teenagers to who were projected the advertising campaigns. So, teenagers filled the designed questionnaire. From a theoretical and psychometric point of view, data show the instrument is appropriate about internal consistency and factorial structure. The final goal of the questionnaire is to become useful tool to assess the persuasive effectiveness of the advertising campaigns within the HIV/AIDS network, as an intervention of primary prevention to reduce the expansion of epidemic.