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Sample records for aid risk assessment

  1. Assessment of AIDS Risk among Treatment Seeking Drug Abusers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Black, John L.; And Others

    Intravenous (IV) drug abusers are at risk for contracting transmittable diseases such as acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and hepatitis B. This study was conducted to investigate the prevalence of risk behaviors for acquiring and transmitting AIDS and hepatitis B among treatment-seeking drug abusers (N=168). Subjects participated in a…

  2. Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield Risk Management of Adenocarcinoma: The Future of Imaging?

    PubMed

    Foley, Finbar; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Boland, Jennifer M; Karwoski, Ronald A; Maldonado, Fabien; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy. PMID:27568149

  3. Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

    PubMed Central

    Mattison, D R; Jelovsek, F R

    1987-01-01

    A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approaches that are formally capable of using biologically relevant information (pharmacokinetics and expert system shells) are explored as aids to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology. PMID:3447888

  4. Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology

    SciTech Connect

    Mattison, D.R.; Jelovsek, F.R.

    1987-12-01

    A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approaches that are formally capable of using biologically relevant information (pharmacokinetics and expert system shells) are explored as aids to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

  5. Exposing variation to aid climate change risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, M. J.; Purves, D. W.; Joppa, L. N.; Emmott, S.; Lyutsarev, V.; Bishop, C. M.; Palmer, P. I.; Calderhead, B.; Vanderwel, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Considerable efforts to quantify different sources of variation in climate change projections (some might say uncertainty) have led to a welcome set of additional information on which to base confidence about what and how different futures might unfold and how different types of mediating efforts might affect the future. Quantifying the impacts of these different sources of variation on key climate change projection metrics should be used in part to guide future model development efforts. I will report on several of my team's recent research projects to better quantify and assess the importance of different sources of variation. I will show how we use inference techniques to estimate parameter uncertainty in land and marine carbon components of earth system models by comparing them with observational evidence and show how we propagate such uncertainty to better assess how such systems might respond to climate change and quantify the impact of reducing uncertainty for different applications. I will also show how we use such techniques on simulation models themselves to identify key sources of variation in their predictions: helping to pinpoint important focal areas for model improvement. Lastly, I will show a new software prototype being designed to enable any user to view climate model projections alongside historical and recent observational evidence while, importantly, also exposing some of the variation / uncertainty in the reported information.

  6. The DANGERTOME Personal Risk Threat Assessment Scale: An Instrument to Help Aid Immediate Threat Assessment for Counselors, Faculty, and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Juhnke, Gerald A.

    2010-01-01

    Threats of violence are not uncommon to counselors, faculty, or teachers. Each must be taken seriously, quickly analyzed, and safety procedures implemented. Yet, there exists a paucity of brief, face-to-face, assessments designed to aid threat assessment. To address this paucity, the author created The DANGERTOME Personal Risk Threat Assessment…

  7. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  8. Predicting pathogen risks to aid beach management: the real value of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA).

    PubMed

    Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Schoen, Mary E; Soller, Jeffrey A; Roser, David J

    2010-09-01

    There has been an ongoing dilemma for agencies that set criteria for safe recreational waters in how to provide for a seasonal assessment of a beach site versus guidance for day-to-day management. Typically an overall 'safe' criterion level is derived from epidemiologic studies of sewage-impacted beaches. The decision criterion is based on a percentile value for a single sample or a moving median of a limited number (e.g. five per month) of routine samples, which are reported at least the day after recreator exposure has occurred. The focus of this paper is how to better undertake day-to-day recreational site monitoring and management. Internationally, good examples exist where predictive empirical regression models (based on rainfall, wind speed/direction, etc.) may provide an estimate of the target faecal indicator density for the day of exposure. However, at recreational swimming sites largely impacted by non-sewage sources of faecal indicators, there is concern that the indicator-illness associations derived from studies at sewage-impacted beaches may be inappropriate. Furthermore, some recent epidemiologic evidence supports the relationship to gastrointestinal (GI) illness with qPCR-derived measures of Bacteroidales/Bacteroides spp. as well as more traditional faecal indicators, but we understand less about the environmental fate of these molecular targets and their relationship to bather risk. Modelling pathogens and indicators within a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework is suggested as a way to explore the large diversity of scenarios for faecal contamination and hydrologic events, such as from waterfowl, agricultural animals, resuspended sediments and from the bathers themselves. Examples are provided that suggest that more site-specific targets derived by QMRA could provide insight, directly translatable to management actions. PMID:20638095

  9. Predicting pathogen risks to aid beach management: the real value of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    There has been an ongoing dilemma for agencies who set criteria for safe recreational waters in how to provide for a seasonal assessment of a beach site versus guidance for day-to-day management. Typically an overall 'safe' criterion level is derived from epidemiologic studies o...

  10. Women Living with HIV in Rural Areas. Implementing a Response using the HIV and AIDS Risk Assessment and Reduction Model

    PubMed Central

    Bandali, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    The global fight against HIV is progressing; however, women living in rural areas particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continue to face the devastating consequences of HIV and AIDS. Lack of knowledge and geographical barriers to HIV services are compounded by gender norms often limiting the negotiation of safe sexual practices among women living in rural areas. This paper discusses findings from a qualitative study conducted in rural areas of Mozambique examining factors that influenced women to engage in HIV risk-reduction practices. The findings from this study led to the emergence of an HIV and AIDS risk assessment and reduction (HARAR) model, which is described in detail. The model helps in understanding gender-related factors influencing men and women to engage in risk-reduction practices, which can be used as a framework in other settings to design more nuanced and contextual policies and programs. PMID:25089093

  11. Interactive Voice Response Self-Monitoring to Assess Risk Behaviors in Rural Substance Users Living with HIV/AIDS

    PubMed Central

    Tucker, Jalie A.; Blum, Elizabeth R.; Xie, Lili; Roth, David L.; Simpson, Cathy A.

    2011-01-01

    Community-dwelling HIV/AIDS patients in rural Alabama self-monitored (SM) daily HIV risk behaviors using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system, which may enhance reporting, reduce monitored behaviors, and extend the reach of care. Sexually active substance users (35 men, 19 women) engaged in IVR SM of sex, substance use, and surrounding contexts for 4–10 weeks. Baseline predictors of IVR utilization were assessed, and longitudinal IVR SM effects on risk behaviors were examined. Frequent (n = 22), infrequent (n = 22), and non-caller (n = 10) groups were analyzed. Non-callers had shorter durations of HIV medical care and lower safer sex self-efficacy and tended to be older heterosexuals. Among callers, frequent callers had lost less social support. Longitudinal logistic regression models indicated reductions in risky sex and drug use with IVR SM over time. IVR systems appear to have utility for risk assessment and reduction for rural populations living with HIV disease. PMID:21311964

  12. Computer simulation to aid the risk assessment of wheelchair and special seating systems used in transport.

    PubMed

    Rogers, P D; Gibson, C; Wilcox, S J; Chong, A

    2009-01-01

    The crashworthiness of occupied proprietary wheelchairs, which are transported in motor vehicles, is currently assessed by physical crash testing in accordance with ISO 7176-19. If such wheelchairs are modified to meet the needs of the occupant, e.g. the addition of special seating, environmental control systems or life support equipment, then those making the modifications take on the manufacturer's responsibilities, one of these being the assessment of the modified wheelchair's ability to withstand vehicle crash forces. Destructively testing bespoke wheelchair designs is not practical so, currently, the transport-related risk is assessed using best engineering judgement. To improve this process virtual crash testing of the wheelchair and occupant was used. A modified crash criteria from ISO 7176-19 is proposed to enable assessment of the wheelchair's crashworthiness and provide the clinical engineer with an informed judgement of how both wheelchair alone and occupant and wheelchair together will behave in a crash. PMID:19848858

  13. Mechanistic insights aid the search for CFC substitutes: risk assessment of HCFC-123 as an example.

    PubMed

    Jarabek, A M; Fisher, J W; Rubenstein, R; Lipscomb, J C; Williams, R J; Vinegar, A; McDougal, J N

    1994-06-01

    An international consensus on the need to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting gases such as the halons led to the adoptions of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and Title VI of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, "Protecting Stratospheric Ozone." These agreements included major provisions for reducing and eventually phasing out production and use of CFCs and halons as well as advancing the development of replacement chemicals. Because of the ubiquitous use and benefits of CFCs and halons, an expeditious search for safe replacements to meet the legislative deadlines is of critical importance. Toxicity testing and health risk assessment programs were established to evaluate the health and environmental impact of these replacement chemicals. Development and implementation of these programs as well as the structural-activity relationships significant for the development of the replacement chemicals are described below. A dose-response evaluation for the health risk assessment of the replacement chemical HCFC-123 (2,2-dichloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) is also presented to show an innovative use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. This is based on a parallelogram approach using data on the anesthetic gas halothane, a structural analog to HCFC-123. Halothane and HCFC-123 both form the same metabolite, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), indicative of the same metabolic oxidative pathway attributed to hepatotoxicity. The parallelogram approach demonstrates the application of template model structures and shows how PBPK modeling, together with judicious experimental design, can be used to improve the accuracy of health risk assessment and to decrease the need for extensive laboratory animal testing. PMID:8029495

  14. AIDS, risk and social governance.

    PubMed

    Brown, T

    2000-05-01

    This paper considers the discursive properties of public health literature produced around AIDS in the 1980s and early 1990s. Attention is focused upon the role of health promotion in the UK government's response to the epidemic and on the language used in the educational campaigns conducted by the Health Education Council and its replacement the Health Education Authority. Using an analytical approach influenced by the work of Michel Foucault, the paper argues that the knowledges of AIDS produced by these various public health institutions constructed discursive boundaries between the idea of 'normal' and 'abnormal' behavioural practices. The notion of risk, produced as it is from epidemiological knowledge, is a central mechanism in this process. It is through the production, articulation and normalisation of 'at risk' groups that society is fragmented and hence subject to the governance strategies of late-modern liberal economies. PMID:10728847

  15. The acceptability of a computer HIV/AIDS risk assessment to not-in-treatment drug users.

    PubMed

    Williams, M L; Freeman, R C; Bowen, A M; Saunders, L

    1998-12-01

    The purpose of this paper is to report the results of a study assessing the acceptability of a computer HIV risk assessment instrument administered to not-in-treatment drug users. The study asked three questions related to acceptability: (1) are drug users comfortable responding to HIV risk questions using the computer assessment; (2) do drug users feel that they possess the requisite skill to respond to questions using a computer; and (3) do drug users believe that the responses they provide using the computer assessment will remain private and confidential. This study differs from other assessments of the acceptability of computer assisted data collection in that the population of interest has only limited education and interaction with computers. Furthermore, the study was implemented under field conditions. To conduct the study, an existing HIV risk assessment instrument was adapted for use with the computer. Only slight modifications were made to the content of the instrument. To facilitate data collection with this population, audio enhancement and touch screen were used. Three scales measuring comfort, skill and perceived privacy were developed. Results of analysis showed that drug users are comfortable responding to an HIV risk assessment using computer assisted interviewing. Drug users also perceived that they possessed the requisite skill to successfully complete the interview. And, study participants reported that they believed that their responses using the computer interview would remain private and confidential. Only minor differences in scale scores based on sociodemographic characteristics were found among study participants. Implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:9924525

  16. Culturally sensitive AIDS education and perceived AIDS risk knowledge: reaching the "know-it-all" teenager.

    PubMed

    Stevenson, H C; Gay, K M; Josar, L

    1995-04-01

    Video education is the most popular and effective medium for informing the adolescent population. This study investigated the impact of a culturally relevant HIV/AIDS video education. One hundred and ninety-four African-American teenagers were assigned to either a culturally sensitive or culturally dissimilar video education intervention. Results indicate that both interventions were effective in increasing AIDS knowledge scores. An interaction effect was found between levels of perceived AIDS risk knowledge and participation in the culturally sensitive intervention (CSV). Only the CSV intervention was effective with adolescents who claimed to "know a lot" about AIDS (e.g., "Know-It-All" subgroup). Students in both conditions who were worried about getting AIDS demonstrated higher AIDS risk knowledge at post-assessment. This study provides further evidence of within-ethnicity diversity among African-American youth and for developing culture- and subgroup-specific HIV/AIDS education. PMID:7542465

  17. Behavioral intervention to reduce AIDS risk activities.

    PubMed

    Kelly, J A; St Lawrence, J S; Hood, H V; Brasfield, T L

    1989-02-01

    Behavior change can curtail the spread of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). In this study, 104 gay men with a history of frequent AIDS high-risk behavior completed self-report, self-monitoring, and behavioral measures related to AIDS risk. The sample was randomly divided into experimental and waiting-list control groups. The experimental intervention provided AIDS risk education, cognitive-behavioral self-management training, sexual assertion training, and attention to the development of steady and self-affirming social supports. Experimental group participants greatly reduced their frequency of high-risk sexual practices and increased behavioral skills for refusing sexual coercions, AIDS risk knowledge, and adoption of "safer sex" practices. Change was maintained at the 8-month follow-up. PMID:2925974

  18. Fracture risk assessment: improved evaluation of vertebral integrity among metastatic cancer patients to aid in surgical decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Augustine, Kurt E.; Camp, Jon J.; Holmes, David R.; Huddleston, Paul M.; Lu, Lichun; Yaszemski, Michael J.; Robb, Richard A.

    2012-03-01

    Failure of the spine's structural integrity from metastatic disease can lead to both pain and neurologic deficit. Fractures that require treatment occur in over 30% of bony metastases. Our objective is to use computed tomography (CT) in conjunction with analytic techniques that have been previously developed to predict fracture risk in cancer patients with metastatic disease to the spine. Current clinical practice for cancer patients with spine metastasis often requires an empirical decision regarding spinal reconstructive surgery. Early image-based software systems used for CT analysis are time consuming and poorly suited for clinical application. The Biomedical Image Resource (BIR) at Mayo Clinic, Rochester has developed an image analysis computer program that calculates from CT scans, the residual load-bearing capacity in a vertebra with metastatic cancer. The Spine Cancer Assessment (SCA) program is built on a platform designed for clinical practice, with a workflow format that allows for rapid selection of patient CT exams, followed by guided image analysis tasks, resulting in a fracture risk report. The analysis features allow the surgeon to quickly isolate a single vertebra and obtain an immediate pre-surgical multiple parallel section composite beam fracture risk analysis based on algorithms developed at Mayo Clinic. The analysis software is undergoing clinical validation studies. We expect this approach will facilitate patient management and utilization of reliable guidelines for selecting among various treatment option based on fracture risk.

  19. Mechanistic insights aid the search for CFC substitutes: Risk assessment of HCFC-123 as an example. [CFC (chlorofluorocarbons)

    SciTech Connect

    Jarabek, A.M. ); Fisher, J.W.; Lipscomb, J.C.; Williams, R.J.; McDougal, J.N. ); Rubenstein, R. ); Vinegar, A. )

    1994-06-01

    An international consensus on the need to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting gases such as the halons led to the adoptions of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and Title VI of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, [open quotes]Protecting Stratospheric Ozone.[close quotes] These agreements included major provisions for reducing and eventually phasing out production and use of CFCs and halons as well as advancing the development of replacement chemicals. Because of the ubiquitous use and benefits of CFCs and halons, and expeditious search for safe replacements to meet the legislative deadlines is of critical importance. Toxicity testing and health risk assessment programs were established to evaluate the health and environmental impact of these replacement chemicals. Development and implementation of these programs as well as the structural-activity relationships significant for the development of the replacement chemicals are described below. A dose-response evaluation for the health risk assessment of the replacement chemical HCFC-123 (2,2-dichloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) is also presented to show an innovative use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. This is based on a parallelogram approach using data on the anesthetic gas halothane, a structural analog to HCFC-123. Halothane and HCFC-123 both form the same metabolite, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), indicative of the same metabolic oxidative pathway attributed to hepatotoxicity. The parallelogram approach demonstrates the application of template model structures and shows how PBPK modeling, together with judicious experimental design, can be used to improve the accuracy of health risk assessment and to decrease the need for extensive laboratory animal testing. 53 refs., 9 figs., 14 tabs.

  20. Perceived Risk of AIDS among Prisoners Following Educational Intervention.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    West, Angela D.; Martin, Randy

    2000-01-01

    Assesses the impact of an AIDS education program on inmates' (N=140) perceived risk of HIV infection on the street and in prison. Results reveal that the men's perceived risk declined significantly, whereas the women's increased. Regression analyses indicated that change in perceptions was related to various variables outside of the prison's…

  1. Global and local health burden trade-off through the hybridisation of quantitative microbial risk assessment and life cycle assessment to aid water management.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yumi; Peters, Greg M; Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Khan, Stuart J

    2015-08-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) are commonly used to evaluate potential human health impacts associated with proposed or existing infrastructure and products. Each approach has a distinct objective and, consequently, their conclusions may be inconsistent or contradictory. It is proposed that the integration of elements of QRA and LCA may provide a more holistic approach to health impact assessment. Here we examine the possibility of merging LCA assessed human health impacts with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for waterborne pathogen impacts, expressed with the common health metric, disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The example of a recent large-scale water recycling project in Sydney, Australia was used to identify and demonstrate the potential advantages and current limitations of this approach. A comparative analysis of two scenarios - with and without the development of this project - was undertaken for this purpose. LCA and QMRA were carried out independently for the two scenarios to compare human health impacts, as measured by DALYs lost per year. LCA results suggested that construction of the project would lead to an increased number of DALYs lost per year, while estimated disease burden resulting from microbial exposures indicated that it would result in the loss of fewer DALYs per year than the alternative scenario. By merging the results of the LCA and QMRA, we demonstrate the advantages in providing a more comprehensive assessment of human disease burden for the two scenarios, in particular, the importance of considering the results of both LCA and QRA in a comparative assessment of decision alternatives to avoid problem shifting. The application of DALYs as a common measure between the two approaches was found to be useful for this purpose. PMID:25965885

  2. CYANOBACTERIA AND CYANOTOXINS IN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS – TO DEVELOP AND VALIDATE A MICROARRAY TO TEST FOR CYANOBACTERIA AND CYANOTOXIN GENES IN DRINKING WATER RESERVOIRS AS AN AID TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER SUPPLIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objective of this study is to develop a microarray to test for cyanobacteria and cyanotoxin genes in drinking water reservoirs as an aid to risk assessment and manages of water supplies. The microarray will include probes recognizing important freshwater cyanobacterial tax...

  3. Fear of AIDS and Risk Reduction among Heroin-Addicted Female Street Prostitutes: Personal Interviews with 72 Southern California Subjects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bellis, David J.

    1990-01-01

    Interviewed 72 heroin-addicted female street prostitutes and assessed fear of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), AIDS risk reduction behavior, and prostitutes' recommendations for AIDS risk reduction programs. Self-reported data showed that, although subjects were afraid of AIDS, irrationality produced by addiction compelled risky…

  4. Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elliott, Luisa M.; Mason, David C.; Allainguillaume, Joel; Wilkinson, Mike J.

    2009-11-01

    High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modeling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

  5. RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment of mixtures of environmental pollutants has become a subject of increasing public and regulatory concern. ypically, assessment of mixtures has been based on aggregating the risks associated with the individual constituents of the mixture. his approach does not con...

  6. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Mozambique.

    PubMed

    1996-12-01

    Mozambique's National STD/AIDS Control Program (NACP) estimates that, at present, about 8% of the population is infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The epidemic is expected to peak in 1997. By 2001, Mozambique is projected to have 1,650,000 HIV-positive adults 15-49 years of age, of whom 500,000 will have developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and 500,000 AIDS orphans. Incidence rates are highest in the country's central region, the transport corridors, and urban centers. The rapid spread of HIV has been facilitated by extreme poverty, the social upheaval and erosion of traditional norms created by years of political conflict and civil war, destruction of the primary health care infrastructure, growth of the commercial sex work trade, and labor migration to and from neighboring countries with high HIV prevalence. Moreover, about 10% of the adult population suffers from sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including genital ulcers. NACP, created in 1988, is attempting to curb the further spread of HIV through education aimed at changing high-risk behaviors and condom distribution to prevent STD transmission. Theater performances and radio/television programs are used to reach the large illiterate population. The integration of sex education and STD/AIDS information in the curricula of primary and secondary schools and universities has been approved by the Ministry of Education. Several private companies have been persuaded to distribute condoms to their employees. Finally, the confidentiality of HIV patients has been guaranteed. In 1993, the total AIDS budget was US $1.67 million, 50% of which was provided by the European Union. The European Commission seeks to develop a national strategy for managing STDs within the primary health care system. PMID:12320532

  7. Magical contagion and AIDS risk perception in a college population.

    PubMed

    Nemeroff, C J; Brinkman, A; Woodward, C K

    1994-06-01

    This study examined whether common reactions to AIDS are consistent with operation of the "magical law of contagion," a traditional belief that describes the transfer of properties, whether moral or physical, harmful or beneficial, through contact. Three features of magical contagion, explored in previous work, were re-examined. These features sometimes contrast with microbial contamination as described by modern germ theory. They are: permanence of effects; dose-insensitivity; and potential for effects to act backwards (i.e., from recipient back onto source). A fourth characteristic, previously unaddressed, was also explored: "moral-germ conflation," i.e., the tendency to incompletely distinguish illness from evil. Three hundred and ninety-nine college students completed a survey assessing each feature with regard to AIDS-related scenarios. Also assessed was general AIDS knowledge. Subjects were very well-informed about AIDS, yet a significant subset showed "magical" features of thinking. Consistent with moral-germ conflation, degree of worry about getting AIDS was better predicted by guilt than by risk behaviors and knowledge that they are risky. Implications are discussed. PMID:8080709

  8. Heart Attack Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... Pressure Tools & Resources Stroke More Heart Attack Risk Assessment Updated:May 31,2016 We're sorry, but ... Can You Recognize a Heart Attack? Quiz Risk Assessment Patient Information Sheets: Heart Attack Heart Attack Personal ...

  9. Teaching Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oravec, Jo Ann

    2000-01-01

    Risk management training cannot prevent hazards, but can help students learn to deal with them more efficiently. A risk-assessment and risk-communication approach to dealing with computer problems can be applied in the business classroom. (JOW)

  10. College Students' Awareness and Interpretation of the AIDS Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Freimuth, Vicki S.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Reports on a study designed to provide insight on college students' perception about acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). Focuses on students knowledge about AIDS, their perceptions about their own risk, and any change in behavior they have made in response to the AIDS risk. (TW)

  11. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  12. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule risk assessments determine the likelihood of finishing on time. Each task in a schedule has a varying degree of probability of being finished on time. A schedule risk assessment quantifies these probabilities by assigning values to each task. This viewgraph presentation contains a flow chart for conducting a schedule risk assessment, and profiles applicable several methods of data analysis.

  13. Fear of contagion and AIDS: nurses' perception of risk.

    PubMed

    Gallop, R M; Lancee, W J; Taerk, G; Coates, R A; Fanning, M

    1992-01-01

    Nurses' fear of contagion when caring for persons with AIDS remains high despite increased levels of knowledge. This paper examines the multiple factors that contribute to nurses' perception of risk within the workplace. The authors suggests that constructs from theories such as decision making, psychoanalysis and cognitive psychology can provide insight into the assessment of risk. Findings from a recent survey of nurses are used to illustrate the complex nature of fear of contagion. Understanding this complexity may be an essential first step in order to provide opportunities for resolution of fears and modification of behaviors. PMID:1562626

  14. Will Schools Risk Teaching about the Risk of AIDS?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Unks, Gerald

    1996-01-01

    Discusses schools and current AIDS education; facts about AIDS; teaching about behavioral change; the use of condoms; an AIDS awareness curriculum; HIV/AIDS awareness and sex education; and HIV/AIDS awareness and democratic schooling. (SR)

  15. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  16. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  17. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries. PMID:19009454

  18. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  19. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  20. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    As ecological risk assessment evolves, it is moving beyond focus on single species toward addressing multiple species and their interactions, and from assessing effects of simple chemical toxicity to the cumulative impacts of multiple interacting chemical, physical, and biologica...

  1. Diabetic foot risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Woodbury, M Gail

    2016-05-01

    Diabetes is a serious chronic disease that results in foot complications for many people world-wide. In 2014, the World Health Organization estimated the global prevalence of diabetes in adults to be 9%. To ascertain the risk that an individual patient might develop a diabetic foot ulcer that could lead to an amputation, clinicians are strongly encouraged to perform a risk assessment. Monteiro-Soares and Dinis-Ribeiro have presented a new DIAbetic FOot Risk Assessment with the acronym DIAFORA. It is different from other risk assessments in that it predicts the risk of developing both diabetic foot ulcers and amputation specifically. The risk variables were derived by regression analysis based on a data set of 293 patients from a high-risk setting, a Hospital Diabetic Foot Clinic, who had diabetes and a diabetic foot ulcers. Clear descriptions of the risk variables are provided as well as sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the risk categories. As an added benefit, likelihood ratios are provided that will help clinicians determine the risk of amputation for individual patients. Having a risk assessment form is important for clinician use and examples exist. A question is raised about the effectiveness of risk assessment and how effectiveness might be determined. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26825436

  2. Risk Communication about AIDS in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keeling, Richard P.

    1987-01-01

    Discusses the importance of education as the primary response of higher education to the epidemic associated with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). Focuses on the personal, social and institutional issues that bear on AIDS education on college campuses and the important features of AIDS education programs. (TW)

  3. The social geography of AIDS and hepatitis risk: qualitative approaches for assessing local differences in sterile-syringe access among injection drug users.

    PubMed Central

    Singer, M; Stopka, T; Siano, C; Springer, K; Barton, G; Khoshnood, K; Gorry de Puga, A; Heimer, R

    2000-01-01

    While significant gains have been achieved in understanding and reducing AIDS and hepatitis risks among injection drug users (IDUs), it is necessary to move beyond individual-level characteristics to gain a fuller understanding of the impact of social context on risk. In this study, 6 qualitative methods were used in combination with more traditional epidemiologic survey approaches and laboratory bioassay procedures to examine neighborhood differences in access to sterile syringes among IDUs in 3 northeastern cities. These methods consisted of (1) neighborhood-based IDU focus groups to construct social maps of local equipment acquisition and drug use sites; (2) ethnographic descriptions of target neighborhoods; (3) IDU diary keeping on drug use and injection equipment acquisition; (4) ethnographic day visits with IDUs in natural settings; (5) interviews with IDUs about syringe acquisition and collection of syringes for laboratory analysis; and (6) focused field observation and processual interviewing during drug injection. Preliminary findings from each of these methods are reported to illustrate the methods' value in elucidating the impact of local and regional social factors on sterile syringe access. PMID:10897181

  4. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  5. Physical assessment of people with AIDS.

    PubMed

    Kermode, M

    1990-01-01

    Since the Declaration of Alma-Ata in 1978, primary health care (PHC) has been acknowledged as the most effective means of achieving "health for all". Promotion of the PHC model provides nurses with an excellent opportunity for professional growth and development. The PHC role of nurse practitioner is gradually emerging within the Australian health care system and if nurses are to fulfil this role adequately they need to equip themselves with additional skills. The art of performing competent physical assessment of clients is one such skill. As the concept of the AIDS nurse practitioner is being developed locally and overseas, this paper focuses on the physical assessment of people with AIDS. While the constellation of physical signs and symptoms they experience are all too familiar to those who work in the area, they are often unusual for those who do not. PMID:2242257

  6. Drug Use and AIDS Risk in a Soup Kitchen Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schilling, Robert F.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Interviewed 148 drug users in urban soup kitchen. Focused on subjects' risk-taking and risk-reduction behavior related to injection drug use, perceived changes in risk behavior, perceived risk for contracting Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), and socioeconomic and attitudinal correlates of injecting and sharing needles. Findings…

  7. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  8. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Senegal.

    PubMed

    1996-12-01

    Since the first acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) case was confirmed in 1986, Senegal has conducted an aggressive prevention campaign. Senegal's National AIDS Committee has noted the contributions of poverty and migration to the spread of AIDS. By June 1994, 1297 AIDS cases had been reported and an estimated 500,000 people (1.4% of the population) were infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 and 2. The highest rate of HIV infection (14%) exists among commercial sex workers. At present, HIV/AIDS cases are concentrated in Dakar, Kaolack, the Matam region, and Ziguinchor; however, the growing importance of inter-regional trading is expected to spread HIV to the smaller towns and rural areas. Also salient is the recent devaluation by 50% of the CFA franc, which has reduced the public sector workforce and led many poor urban residents into commercial sex work. CFA devaluation has made Senegal attractive to tourists and business visitors--another factor responsible for growth of the legalized commercial sex industry. Although sex workers are instructed in condom use and tested annually for HIV, only 850 of the 2000 registered sex workers have reported for check-ups, and the majority of prostitutes are unregistered. Senegal's AIDS Plan for 1994-98 focuses on care of AIDS patients, pressures placed on family structures by HIV, and AIDS-related erosions in the status of women. Each health service region has its own local plan for AIDS/HIV and sexually transmitted diseases, supervised by a regional committee. Public education has involved outreach to religious leaders, promotion of affordable condoms, and distribution of over 75,000 leaflets to key target populations. About US $16 million of the $25,688,875-budget HIV/AIDS program for 1994-98 was pledged by external donors. PMID:12320531

  9. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  10. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  11. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Grego

    2004-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) determines the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. This viewgraph presentation introduces the prerequisites, probability distribution curves, special conditions, calculations, and results analysis for SRA.

  12. Sexual Risk Behaviors, AIDS Knowledge, and Beliefs about AIDS among Runaways.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Koopman, Cheryl

    1991-01-01

    Examined young runaways' current risk behaviors, knowledge of AIDS, and beliefs about preventing AIDS by questioning 130 male and female subjects from shelters in New York City in 1988-89. Results did not explain the 6.7 percent seroprevalence rate reported in l988. Recommends closer inquiries regarding IV drug use and prostitution. (DM)

  13. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  14. AIDS: Is Any Risk Too Great? The 1987 Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartog-Rapp, Fay

    This report discusses public school legal liability in the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) controversy with regard to the right of privacy of AIDS victims who are students and employees and the concern of risk of contagion to other students and employees and the public's right to know what is going on in their schools. Several steps…

  15. Adolescents' AIDS Risk Taking: A Rational Choice Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gardner, William; Herman, Janna

    1990-01-01

    Discounts the belief in adolescents' irrational behavior, and proposes a rational choice decision-making theory of adolescent risk-taking behavior. Suggests that social ecology affects risk-taking choices. Proposals for AIDS education concern delayed initiation of sexual activity, promotion of condom use, and counseling of high-risk adolescents.…

  16. Gambling with Your Health: Predictors of Risk for AIDS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lasorsa, Dominic L.; Shoemaker, Pamela J.

    To examine risk for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) in terms of risk-related behaviors, and to investigate the factors that may be involved in putting one at risk, a study conducted telephone interviews with 493 randomly selected adults (18 years or older) in Austin, Texas in the fall of 1987. Respondents answered approximately 40…

  17. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  18. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  19. The International AIDS Questionnaire-English Version (IAQ-E): Assessing the Validity and Reliability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Cindy; Sloan, Melissa; MacMaster, Samuel; Hughes, Leslie

    2006-01-01

    In order to address HIV infection among college students, a comprehensive measure is needed that can be used with samples from culturally diverse populations. Therefore, this paper assessed the reliability and validity of an HIV/AIDS questionnaire that measures fours dimensions of HIV/AIDS awareness--factual knowledge, prejudice, personal risk,…

  20. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  1. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  2. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  3. AIDS communication: role of knowledge factors on perceptions of risk.

    PubMed

    Melkote, S R; Muppidi, S R

    1999-06-01

    The AIDS epidemic is a challenge for health practitioners, educators, mass media communicators, and social workers. The current absence of pharmacological, immunological, and medical interventions against HIV/AIDS demands that social and behavioral HIV/AIDS prevention interventions be given central focus. Efforts to reduce the practice of high-risk HIV behaviors are key to preventing or reducing HIV infection. However, effecting such changes poses many challenges since it must be addressed in the situational, social, cultural, and individual psychological contexts of different societies. While sexual abstinence is the most effective way to prevent the sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS, it is unrealistic to expect that most adults and adolescents will abstain from sex to avoid HIV infection. Rather, studies are needed to identify which factors influence the change of risk behaviors. Findings are presented from a study conducted to identify which factors contribute to the self-perception of risk for contracting HIV among 323 university students in a US midwestern city. At least 2 knowledge factors and the practice of safe sex behaviors were found to contribute to perceptions of lower risk of being infected with HIV. Media campaigns which deliver only accurate and comprehensive AIDS information from a medical and immunological perspective, and fail to address the subjective images people have about AIDS, may be less effective in reducing perceptions of risk than are message and educational strategies which also deal with people's subjective concerns. PMID:12349162

  4. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  5. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries. PMID:20087690

  6. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  7. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  8. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    SciTech Connect

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  9. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  10. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-03-28

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment. PMID:26666966

  11. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  12. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  13. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  14. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established.

  15. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG&G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers` needs and the product have been established.

  16. AIDS and behavioral change to reduce risk: a review.

    PubMed Central

    Becker, M H; Joseph, J G

    1988-01-01

    Published reports describing behavioral changes in response to the threat of AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) are reviewed. These studies demonstrate rapid, profound, but expectably incomplete alterations in the behavior of both homosexual/bisexual males and intravenous drug users. This is true in the highest risk metropolitan areas such as New York City and in areas with lower AIDS incidence. Risk reduction is occurring more frequently through the modification of sexual or drug-use behavior than through its elimination. In contrast to aggregate data, longitudinal descriptions of individual behavior demonstrate considerable instability or recidivism. Behavioral change in the potentially vulnerable heterosexual adolescent and young adult populations is less common, as is risk reduction among urban minorities. Reports of AIDS-related knowledge and attitudes generally parallel the pattern of behavioral changes. Nonetheless, few studies investigate the relationship of knowledge and attitudes to risk reduction. Future studies should provide much-needed information about the determinants as well as the magnitude of behavioral changes required to reduce the further spread of AIDS. PMID:3279837

  17. Limiting Cumulative HIV Viremia Copy-Years by Early Treatment Reduces Risk of AIDS and Death

    PubMed Central

    Walker, A. Sarah; Suthar, Amitabh B.; Sabin, Caroline; Bucher, Heiner C.; Jarrin, Inma; Moreno, Santiago; Perez-Hoyos, Santiago; Porter, Kholoud; Ford, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Background: Viremia copy-years (VCY), a time-updated measure of cumulative HIV exposure, predicts AIDS/death; although its utility in deciding when to start combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) remains unclear. We aimed to assess the impact of initiating versus deferring cART on risk of AIDS/death by levels of VCY both independent of and within CD4 cell count strata ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter. Methods: Using Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) data, we created a series of nested “trials” corresponding to consecutive months for individuals ≥16 years at seroconversion after 1995 who were cART-naive and AIDS-free. Pooling across all trials, time to AIDS/death by CD4, and VCY strata was compared in those initiating vs. deferring cART using Cox models adjusted for: country, sex, risk group, seroconversion year, age, time since last HIV-RNA, and current CD4, VCY, HIV-RNA, and mean number of previous CD4/HIV-RNA measurements/year. Results: Of 9353 individuals, 5312 (57%) initiated cART and 486 (5%) acquired AIDS/died. Pooling CD4 strata, risk of AIDS/death associated with initiating vs. deferring cART reduced as VCY increased. In patients with high CD4 cell counts, ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, there was a trend for a greater reduction for those initiating vs. deferring with increasing VCY (P = 0.09), with the largest benefit in the VCY ≥100,000 copy-years/mL group [hazard ratio (95% CI) = 0.41 (0.19 to 0.87)]. Conclusions: For individuals with CD4 ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, limiting the cumulative HIV burden to <100,000 copy-years/mL through cART may reduce the risk of AIDS/death. PMID:27116045

  18. Major Mental Disorders, Substance Use Disorders, Comorbidity, and HIV-AIDS Risk Behaviors in Juvenile Detainees

    PubMed Central

    Teplin, Linda A.; Elkington, Katherine S.; McClelland, Gary M.; Abram, Karen M.; Mericle, Amy A.; Washburn, Jason J.

    2005-01-01

    Objectives This study determined the prevalence of 20 HIV-AIDS risk behaviors of four groups of juvenile detainees: those with major mental disorders alone, those with substance use disorders alone, those with comorbid mental and substance use disorders, and those without any major mental or substance use disorder. Methods Interviewers administered the AIDS Risk Behavior Assessment to 800 randomly selected juvenile detainees aged ten to 18 years who were initially arrested between 1997 and 1998. Diagnoses were determined with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children, Version 2.3. Results The sample included 340 females and 460 males. As with the other groups of detainees, youths with major mental disorders had a high prevalence of most HIV-AIDS risk behaviors, much higher than the rates found among youths in the general population. Comorbid substance use disorders substantially increased risk; 96 percent of youths in this group had been sexually active, 62 percent had had multiple partners within the past three months, and 59 percent had had unprotected vaginal sex in the past month. Among youths with a substance use disorder, either alone or with a comorbid major mental disorder, more than 63 percent had engaged in five or more sexual risk behaviors. Conclusions Delinquents with substance use disorders, either with or without comorbid major mental disorders, are at particular risk of HIV-AIDS. The juvenile justice and public health systems must provide HIV-AIDS interventions as well as mental health and substance abuse treatment. Greater coordination between community services and correctional facilities can reduce the prevalence of HIV-AIDS risk behaviors of juvenile delinquents and stem the spread of HIV infection among young people. PMID:16020814

  19. Risks of Recreational Exposure to Waterborne Pathogens Among Persons With HIV/AIDS in Baltimore, Maryland

    PubMed Central

    Lemerman, Hanna B.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Moore, Richard D.; Graczyk, Thaddeus K.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives. We assessed the prevalence of recreational activities in the waterways of Baltimore, MD, and the risk of exposure to Cryptosporidium among persons with HIV/AIDS. Methods. We studied patients at the Johns Hopkins Moore Outpatient AIDS Clinic. We conducted oral interviews with a convenience sample of 157 HIV/AIDS patients to ascertain the sites used for recreational water contact within Baltimore waters and assess risk behaviors. Results. Approximately 48% of respondents reported participating in recreational water activities (fishing, crabbing, boating, and swimming). Men and women were almost equally likely to engage in recreational water activities (53.3% versus 51.3%). Approximately 67% (105 of 157) ate their own catch or that of friends or family members, and a majority (61%, or 46 of 75) of respondents who reported recreational water contact reported consumption of their own catch. Conclusions. Baltimoreans with HIV/AIDS are engaging in recreational water activities in urban waters that may expose them to waterborne pathogens and recreational water illnesses. Susceptible persons, such as patients with HIV/AIDS, should be cautioned regarding potential microbial risks from recreational water contact with surface waters. PMID:19372505

  20. Second assessment of NeuroAIDS in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Robertson, Kevin; Kopnisky, Kathy; Hakim, James; Merry, Concepta; Nakasujja, Noeline; Hall, Colin; Traore, Moussa; Sacktor, Ned; Clifford, David; Newton, Charles; Van Rie, Annelies; Holding, Penny; Clements, Janice; Zink, Christine; Mielke, Jens; Hosseinipour, Mina; Lalloo, Umesh; Amod, Farida; Marra, Christina; Evans, Scott; Liner, Jeff

    2009-01-01

    In July of 2006, the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Center for Mental Health Research on AIDS (CMHRA) sponsored the second conference on the Assessment of NeuroAIDS in Africa, which was held in Arusha, Tanzania. The conference mission was to address the regional variations in epidemiology of HIV-related neurological disorders as well as the assessment and diagnosis of these disorders. Participants discussed and presented data regarding the relevance and translation of neuroAIDS assessment measures developed in resource intensive settings and the challenges of neuro-assessment in Africa, including the applicability of current tools, higher prevalence of confounding diseases, and the complexity of diverse cultural settings. The conference presentations summarized here highlight the need for further research on neuroAIDS in Africa and methods for assessing HIV-related neurological disorders. PMID:18370346

  1. AIDS knowledge and risk behaviors among culturally diverse women.

    PubMed

    Harrison, D F; Wambach, K G; Byers, J B; Imershein, A W; Levine, P; Maddox, K; Quadagno, D M; Fordyce, M L; Jones, M A

    1991-01-01

    This article reports results from a survey of women at risk for HIV infection. The sample (n = 620) included black (50.6%), white (28.7%), Hispanic (13.4%), and Haitian (5.0%) adult women from south Florida. Data concerning their AIDS knowledge, prevalence of risk behaviors, and perceived vulnerability are presented. Results indicate differences in certain knowledge areas and risk behaviors by race/ethnicity and a consistent incidence of unprotected sex with their main partners across all racial/ethnic groups. PMID:1873140

  2. Risk Assessment: Implications for Biologic Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses risk assessment, including risk assessment as a modeling process, models and social values, political decision making, the public, and risk assessment techniques in the biology classroom. (MKR)

  3. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data.

  4. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  5. Household displacement and health risk behaviors among AIDS-affected children in rural China

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Qun; Zhao, Junfeng; Li, Xiaoming; Fang, Xiaoyi; Zhao, Guoxiang; Lin, Xiuyun; Zhang, Liying

    2011-01-01

    When parents die of or are infected with HIV, children might have to leave their own household and be displaced to other living arrangement and some may even be displaced multiple times. The objective of this study is to examine the association between household displacement and health risk behaviors among AIDS orphans (children who have lost one or both of their parents to HIV/AIDS) and vulnerable children (children living with HIV-infected parents) in rural China. The sample consisted of 1015 children (549 AIDS orphans, 466 vulnerable children) in family-based care. The children were assigned to three displacement groups according to the number of household displacement (i.e., none, once, at least twice) after their parents became ill or died of AIDS. Cigarette smoking, alcohol use, violence, public property destruction, suicidal ideation, and suicide attempt were used to assess the health risk behaviors of these children. Both bivariate and multivariate tests were used to assess the differences in health risk behaviors among displacement groups. The findings indicated that children who were displaced at least twice were more likely to report a higher frequency of public property destruction and suicide ideation than those who were never displaced or displaced once. Multivariate analysis revealed that public property destruction, suicide ideation and suicide attempt were significantly associated with the household displacement among these children, controlling for gender, age, child status (AIDS orphans vs. vulnerable children) and the duration of household displacement. Results in the current study suggest that a stable living environment was important for both AID orphans and vulnerable children in communities of high prevalence of HIV/AIDS. The government, community and other agencies need to make efforts to avoid frequent household displacement among these children after the HIV-related infection or death of their parents. PMID:21400311

  6. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  7. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  8. EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT: INPUT INTO RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The validity of a risk assessment can be no better than that of the exposure assessment upon which it is based. he general paucity of relevant exposure data, combined with the limited appreciation by most risk assessors of the critical dimensions and metrics of exposure, often le...

  9. Does Computer-Aided Formative Assessment Improve Learning Outcomes?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hannah, John; James, Alex; Williams, Phillipa

    2014-01-01

    Two first-year engineering mathematics courses used computer-aided assessment (CAA) to provide students with opportunities for formative assessment via a series of weekly quizzes. Most students used the assessment until they achieved very high (>90%) quiz scores. Although there is a positive correlation between these quiz marks and the final…

  10. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  12. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  13. Special report: federal AIDS prevention funding at risk. Here is how obscenity issue was raised.

    PubMed

    2002-03-01

    Obscenity may be in the eye of the community beholder, but that apparently won't stop the federal government from taking a peek. Federal officials are conducting comprehensive reviews of all CDC-funded HIV/AIDS program activities, and federal funding for HIV/AIDS prevention programs now is at risk if local review panels fear that the materials could be considered obscene by federal officials. The federal reviews also will assess whether these programs are adhering to CDC prevention material requirements. PMID:12206094

  14. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. PMID:24913749

  15. Topographical Risk Assessment

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP seniormore » management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.« less

  16. eWorkbook: A Computer Aided Assessment System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costagliola, Gennaro; Ferrucci, Filomena; Fuccella, Vittorio; Oliveto, Rocco

    2007-01-01

    Computer aided assessment (CAA) tools are more and more widely adopted in academic environments mixed to other assessment means. In this article, we present a CAA Web application, named eWorkbook, which can be used for evaluating learner's knowledge by creating (the tutor) and taking (the learner) on-line tests based on multiple choice, multiple…

  17. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

  18. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  19. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  20. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  1. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factor (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis

  2. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  3. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders. PMID:26781555

  4. AIDS prevention among Hispanics: needs, risk behaviors, and cultural values.

    PubMed

    Marin, G

    1989-01-01

    Data from different sources show that Hispanics are over-represented in reported cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) (twice their proportion of the population) and that their rate of infection by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is three times higher than among non-Hispanic whites. The behavior risk factors most frequently associated with infection in AIDS cases are IV drug use in the Northeast and high-risk sexual behavior in the West. HIV infection prevention strategies for Hispanics need to address high risk behaviors, taking into consideration associated culture-specific characteristics. Strategies need to address as well conditions such as racism and ethnic prejudices that keep many Hispanic homosexuals and bisexuals away from white or non-Hispanic gay organizations and publications, the lack of culturally appropriate drug treatment centers, the level of mis-information among Hispanics, and the possible high incidence among men of sexual intercourse with prostitutes. Prevention campaigns need to include such Hispanic cultural values as simpatia, familialism, personalismo, and power distance, if prevention campaigns are going to be perceived as relevant by Hispanics. Appropriate wording and communication channels need to be identified in order to transmit messages that will be perceived as credible and that will reach the largest possible audience. PMID:2508169

  5. An Instrument to Aid in Assessing Editorials.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burkhalter, Nancy

    1995-01-01

    Presents a primary-trait scoring instrument intended for journalism teachers to use in assessing students' editorials by breaking down the analysis into three essential components: claims, data, and warrants. Applies the instrument to two student essays. (SR)

  6. Making risk meaningful: developing caring relationships with AIDS patients.

    PubMed

    Reutter, L I; Northcott, H C

    1993-09-01

    A qualitative study was conducted in order to understand how nurses cope with the risk of contagion while providing care to persons with AIDS (PWAs). Data were collected through in-depth interviews with 13 nurses who had cared for PWAs in an acute-care hospital in a western Canadian city. The data were analysed using the constant comparative methodology of grounded theory. The analysis revealed that caring for PWAs involved achieving a sense of control over uncertainty. One aspect of this process, making risk meaningful, centred on efforts to justify caring for PWAs in the face of risk. The purpose of this paper is to describe how nurses make risk meaningful. A sense of meaning was found to be related to three major factors: accepting the patient as a person who needs and deserves care, finding work enjoyable and worthwhile, and professional commitment to care for all patients. Attaining a sense of meaning led to a reappraisal of the risk situation as worthy of investment and provided the motivation to care for patients in spite of risk. The paper concludes with implications for practice and suggestions for further research. PMID:8258595

  7. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  8. REGIONAL SCALE COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...

  9. Clinical decision aids for chest pain in the emergency department: identifying low-risk patients

    PubMed Central

    Alley, William; Mahler, Simon A

    2015-01-01

    Chest pain is one of the most common presenting complaints in the emergency department, though only a small minority of patients are subsequently diagnosed with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, missing the diagnosis has potential for significant morbidity and mortality. ACS presentations can be atypical, and their workups are often prolonged and costly. In order to risk-stratify patients and better direct the workup and care given, many decision aids have been developed. While each may have merit in certain clinical settings, the most useful aid in the emergency department is one that finds all cases of ACS while also identifying a substantial subset of patients at low risk who can be discharged without stress testing or coronary angiography. This review describes several of the chest pain decision aids developed and studied through the recent past, starting with the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scores, which were developed as prognostic aids for patients already diagnosed with ACS, then subsequently validated in the undifferentiated chest pain population. Asia-Pacific Evaluation of Chest Pain Trial (ASPECT); Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients With Chest Pain Symptoms Using Contemporary Troponins (ADAPT); North American Chest Pain Rule (NACPR); and History, Electrocardiogram, Age, Risk factors, Troponin (HEART) score have been developed exclusively for use in the undifferentiated chest pain population as well, with improved performance compared to their predecessors. This review describes the relative merits and limitations of these decision aids so that providers can determine which tool fits the needs of their clinical practice setting. PMID:27147894

  10. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  11. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  12. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  13. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  14. Risk assessment in international operations.

    PubMed

    Stricklin, Daniela L

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umeå has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently. PMID:18325560

  15. Caries management by risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2013-02-01

    Caries disease is multifactorial. Whether caries disease will be expressed and damage dental hard tissue is dependent on the patient's own unique make-up of pathogenic risk factors and protective factors. Objectives This manuscript will review the science of managing caries disease based on assessing caries risk. Methods The caries balance/imbalance model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult will illustrate how treatment options can be based on caries risk. Results Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply there is currently only one correct way this can be achieved, rather are used in this manuscript as examples only. Conclusions It is important to have the forms and protocols simple and easy to understand when implementing caries management by risk assessment into clinical practice. The science of CAMBRA based on the caries balance/imbalance model was reviewed and an example protocol was presented. PMID:24916678

  16. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Each source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-...

  17. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  18. ADVANCED PESTICIDE RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The use of herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and growth regulating chemicals is necessary in modern agriculture, silviculture, and public health vector control operations. The task for environmental risk assessment is to delineate the food chain contamination and ecological v...

  19. RISK ASSESSMENT OF WASTEWATER DISINFECTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    A risk assessment data base is presented for several waste-water disinfection alternatives, including chlorination, ozonation, chlorination/dechlorination, and ultraviolet radiation. The data base covers hazards and consequences related to onsite use and transportation of the dis...

  20. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  1. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  2. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  3. Risk: assessment, acceptability and management

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-01-01

    Risk assessment, particularly of risks to the public health resulting from government and industry decisions, is discussed. Cost/benefit analysis as applied to such situations as human deaths and the contracting of cancer by humans is discussed. The role of government regulations and standards is discussed.

  4. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  5. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  6. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  7. Does Using Nonnumerical Terms to Describe Risk Aid Violence Risk Communication? Clinician Agreement and Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilton, N. Zoe; Carter, Angela M.; Harris, Grant T.; Sharpe, Amilynn J. B.

    2008-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessments yield valid numerical information about violence risk, but research suggests that forensic clinicians prefer to communicate risk using nonnumerical information (i.e., verbal terms such as high risk). In an experimental questionnaire study, 60 forensic clinicians disagreed on the interpretation of nonnumerical terms, and…

  8. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  9. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  10. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  11. The Influence of Knowing Someone with AIDS on Youth HIV Sexual Risk Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cederbaum, Julie A.; Marcus, Steven C.; Hutchinson, M. Katherine

    2007-01-01

    Research indicates that knowing someone with HIV/AIDS is associated with greater perceived risk of contracting HIV and changes in sexual risk behaviors. The current study with a sample of 1,172 examined whether knowing someone with HIV/AIDS influenced sexual risk communication and youth engagement in sexual intercourse using the Philadelphia…

  12. Intelligent situation assessment and response aiding in flight emergencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hudlicka, Eva; Corker, Kevin; Cramer, Nichael; Young, David; Baron, Sheldon

    1989-01-01

    A knowledge-based pilot aiding system which performs situation assessment and response aiding is described. The system uses a causal model of the flight domain to both simulate the effects of identified failures on flight and to derive responses during emergencies. The model represents information at two levels of abstraction: Boolean, which simply states whether a subsystem or aircraft component is normal or abnormal, and qualitative, which expresses the subsystem or component status as one of several qualitative values, such as increasing, decreasing, or stable.

  13. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  14. EPA's neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines.

    PubMed

    Boyes, W K; Dourson, M L; Patterson, J; Tilson, H A; Sette, W F; MacPhail, R C; Li, A A; O'Donoghue, J L

    1997-12-01

    The proposed Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment Guidelines (U.S. EPA, 1995c Fed. Reg. 60(192), 52032-52056) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were the subject of a workshop at the 1997 Meeting of the Society of Toxicology. The workshop considered the role of guidelines in the risk assessment process, the primary features, scientific basis, and implications of the guidelines for EPA program offices, as well as for industrial neurotoxicologists from the perspectives of both pesticides and toxic substances regulation. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 1983, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process) established a framework for distinguishing risk management from risk assessment, the latter being the result of integrating hazard identification, hazard characterization, and exposure assessment data. The guidelines are intended to establish operating principles that will be used when examining data in a risk assessment context. The proposed neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines provide a conceptual framework for deciding whether or not a chemically induced effect can be considered to be evidence of neurotoxicity. Topics in the proposed guidelines include structural and functional effects, dose-response and -duration considerations, and relationships between effects. Among the issues that must be considered are the multiplicity of chemical effects, the levels of biological organization in the nervous system, and the tests, measurements, and protocols used. Judgment of the adversity of an effect depends heavily on the amount and types of data available. The attribution of a chemically induced effect to an action on the nervous system depends on several factors such as the quality of the study, the nature of the outcome, dose-response and time-response relationships, and the possible involvement of nonneural factors. The guidelines will also serve as a reference for those conducting neurotoxicity testing, as well as establish a

  15. Neurotoxicity in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Weiss, B.

    1988-01-01

    Neurotoxicity is a property of many metals, even those deemed biologically essential. Manganese, one of the essential elements, can induce a syndrome displaying aspects of both Parkinsonism and dystonia, but accompanied, as well, by psychological abnormalities. At low exposure levels, however, neurotoxicity may be detectable with psychological tests. Mercury vapor exposure also induces neurological signs, psychological aberrations, and subtle evidence of dysfunction on psychological tests. Methylmercury and lead are particularly toxic to the developing brain. The most recent research indicates that psychological testing may uncover deficits even in children showing no evidence of impairment. Because of their special features, neurotoxic endpoints may have to be evaluated for risks by a process that diverges significantly from the standard program based on carcinogenicity.

  16. "We talk of AIDS because we love life": a stakeholder assessment of HIV/AIDS organizations in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

    PubMed

    Spaulding, Alicen B; Brieger, William R

    This stakeholder assessment of HIV/AIDS service providing institutions in Argentina offers insights into the HIV/AIDS crisis in Spanish-speaking Latin America from an institutional level and makes recommendations for strengthening the work and functioning of these institutions. This stakeholder assessment was conducted to determine how HIV/AIDS prevention and management in Argentina affects and is affected by relevant HIV/AIDS institutions. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 13 key leaders of organizations working in HIV/AIDS prevention in Buenos Aires including non-governmental, governmental, and academic institutions. Analyses of interviewee comments are presented according to four major themes: network connections, program resources, perceptions of success, and challenges. Key findings include the need for strengthening formal networks, increasing the involvement of other non-AIDS related social institutions in promoting HIV prevention, finding more sustainable funding options, working more effectively with the public sector to create policies and regulations favorable to the HIV/AIDS field, and addressing the lack of perceived susceptibility to HIV/AIDS in Argentine culture. From leaders' comments, recommendations are made for strengthening the HIV/AIDS network among key institutions including adapting the UNAIDS "Three Ones" principal to create one crosssector office responsible for coordinating HIV/AIDS work, formalizing agreements with institutions outside of Buenos Aires, increasing the role of schools in HIV/AIDS awareness, and designing programs that address lack of perceived susceptibility to HIV/AIDS among Argentines. PMID:18573753

  17. Topics in cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Olin, S S; Neumann, D A; Foran, J A; Scarano, G J

    1997-01-01

    The estimation of carcinogenic risks from exposure to chemicals has become an integral part of the regulatory process in the United States within the past decade. With it have come considerable controversy and debate over the scientific merits and shortcomings of the methods and their impact on risk management decisions. In this paper we highlight selected topics of current interest in the debate. As an indication of the level of public concern, we note the major recent reports on risk assessment from the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S Environmental Protection Agency's proposed substantial revisions to its Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. We identify and briefly frame several key scientific issues in cancer risk assessment, including the growing recognition of the importance of understanding the mode of action of carcinogenesis in experimental animals and in humans, the methodologies and challenges in quantitative extrapolation of cancer risks, and the question of how to assess and account for human variability in susceptibility to carcinogens. In addition, we discuss initiatives in progress that may fundamentally alter the carcinogenesis testing paradigm. PMID:9114281

  18. Robot-aided assessment of lower extremity functions: a review.

    PubMed

    Maggioni, Serena; Melendez-Calderon, Alejandro; van Asseldonk, Edwin; Klamroth-Marganska, Verena; Lünenburger, Lars; Riener, Robert; van der Kooij, Herman

    2016-01-01

    The assessment of sensorimotor functions is extremely important to understand the health status of a patient and its change over time. Assessments are necessary to plan and adjust the therapy in order to maximize the chances of individual recovery. Nowadays, however, assessments are seldom used in clinical practice due to administrative constraints or to inadequate validity, reliability and responsiveness. In clinical trials, more sensitive and reliable measurement scales could unmask changes in physiological variables that would not be visible with existing clinical scores.In the last decades robotic devices have become available for neurorehabilitation training in clinical centers. Besides training, robotic devices can overcome some of the limitations in traditional clinical assessments by providing more objective, sensitive, reliable and time-efficient measurements. However, it is necessary to understand the clinical needs to be able to develop novel robot-aided assessment methods that can be integrated in clinical practice.This paper aims at providing researchers and developers in the field of robotic neurorehabilitation with a comprehensive review of assessment methods for the lower extremities. Among the ICF domains, we included those related to lower extremities sensorimotor functions and walking; for each chapter we present and discuss existing assessments used in routine clinical practice and contrast those to state-of-the-art instrumented and robot-aided technologies. Based on the shortcomings of current assessments, on the identified clinical needs and on the opportunities offered by robotic devices, we propose future directions for research in rehabilitation robotics. The review and recommendations provided in this paper aim to guide the design of the next generation of robot-aided functional assessments, their validation and their translation to clinical practice. PMID:27485106

  19. Excess mortality in patients with AIDS in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy: Temporal changes and risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Puhan, Milo A.; Van Natta, Mark L.; Palella, Frank J.; Addessi, Adrienne; Meinert, Curtis

    2010-01-01

    Background Excess mortality has declined among HIV infected patients but without evidence of a decline in patients with AIDS. We assessed temporal changes in excess mortality and elucidated risk factors for excess mortality in patients with AIDS diagnosed in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods We included 1,188 patients of the Longitudinal Study of Ocular Complications in AIDS who were between 25-64 years old at enrollment and diagnosed with AIDS after 1995. We calculated excess mortality as the age-, year- and sex-adjusted difference in mortality rates between patients with AIDS and persons in the US general population, between 1999 and 2007, and used a relative survival model to identify risk factors for excess mortality. Results There were an average of 50 excess deaths (95% CI 44-57) per 1,000 person years between 1999 and 2007. Excess mortality almost halved with an annual decline of 8.0% per year (3.0-12.7 p=0.002) but remained high at 36 excess deaths per 1,000 person years in 2007. Viral load >400 vs. ≤400 copies/mL (risk ratio 3.4 [2.3-5.0]), CD4+ count <200 vs. ≥200 cells/μL (2.7 [1.9-3.9]) and cytomegalovirus retinitis (1.6 [1.2-2.1]) were the strongest risk factors for excess mortality. Conclusions Excess mortality among patients with AIDS was nearly halved in the HAART era and most strongly linked to stage of HIV disease. These results reflect the continuing improvements in AIDS management but also highlight that excess mortality remains about five times higher in patients with AIDS than in patients with HIV-infection but no AIDS. PMID:20825306

  20. Space shuttle operational risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare

    1996-03-01

    A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Space Shuttle system has recently been completed. This year-long effort represents a development resulting from seven years of application of risk technology to the Space Shuttle. These applications were initiated by NASA shortly after the Challenger accident as recommended by the Rogers and Slay Commission reports. The current effort is the first integrated quantitative assessment of the risk of the loss of the shuttle vehicle from 3 seconds prior to liftoff to wheel-stop at mission end. The study which was conducted under the direction of NASA's Shuttle Safety and Mission Assurance office at Johnson Spaceflight Center focused on shuttle operational risk but included consideration of all the shuttle flight and test history since the beginning of the program through Mission 67 in July of 1994.

  1. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    SciTech Connect

    Allgood, GO

    2001-08-15

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  2. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  3. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. PMID:25321142

  4. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  5. Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strunz, G.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Mück, M.; Riedlinger, T.; Mehl, H.; Dech, S.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.; Harjono, H.; Anwar, H. Z.; Sumaryono; Khomarudin, R. M.; Muhari, A.

    2011-01-01

    In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia. The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009). The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

  6. Benzidine dihydrochloride: risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Littlefield, N A; Nelson, C J; Gaylor, D W

    1984-02-01

    Benzidine, recognized as a bladder carcinogen in man and as a liver carcinogen in experimental animals, is the chemical basis of as many as 200 commercial dyes. Physiological processes can metabolize these dyes to release benzidine, thereby creating a potential exposure hazard. To assess this hazard, both sexes of F1 hybrid (genetically homogeneous) and monohybrid (genetically heterogeneous) mice from a BALB/c male and C57BL/6 female cross were exposed for their respective lifespans to benzidine dihydrochloride in their drinking water at concentrations of 0, 30, 40, 60, 80, 120, and 160 ppm for males, and 0, 20, 30, 40, 60, 80, and 120 ppm for females. Animals were removed from the study when they were dead or moribund. This study was terminated after 33 months of exposure. Using the endpoint of hepatocellular adenomas and carcinomas, the Armitage Doll multistage model was used to describe the tumor rates in the experimental dose range and to obtain the upper confidence level on tumor rates. Linear interpolation was used between zero dose and the upper confidence level of the lowest experimental dosage for predicting potential low dose tumor rates. Dose-response effects on body weight, survival, and liver neoplasms were noted in both stocks. For each of the endpoints, the females were more susceptible than males and the F1 (homogeneous) stock was more susceptible than the monohybrid cross (heterogeneous). The calculated virtually "safe" dose predicted to produce less than one per million F1 female mice with a liver tumor is 0.045 ppb. One part per billion of benzidine dihydrochloride in the drinking water of these mice is estimated to produce liver tumors in less than 2.23 mice per 100,000 population. PMID:6363187

  7. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk.

    PubMed

    Manbeck, Harvey B; Hofstetter, Daniel W; Murphy, Dennis J; Puri, Virendra M

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess (1) how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2) from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3) whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated. PMID:27303661

  8. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk

    PubMed Central

    Manbeck, Harvey B.; Hofstetter, Daniel W.; Murphy, Dennis J.; Puri, Virendra M.

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess (1) how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2) from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3) whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated. PMID:27303661

  9. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  11. HIV/AIDS-Related Knowledge and Behaviors Among Most-at-Risk Populations in Vietnam

    PubMed Central

    Vian, Taryn; Semrau, Katherine; Hamer, Davidson H; Loan, Le Thi Thanh; Sabin, Lora L

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has supported the Vietnamese Ministry of Health (MOH) in implementing behavior change strategies to slow the HIV epidemic. These programs target commercial sex workers (CSW), injection drug users (IDU), and men who have sex with men (MSM). Using data from a program evaluation to assess effectiveness of the PEPFAR intervention, we conducted a sub-analysis of HIV/AIDS knowledge, sexual behaviors, and injection drug risk behaviors among 2,199 Vietnamese respondents, including those reporting recent contact with an outreach worker and those who did not report contact. We found overall high levels of HIV/AIDS knowledge, low rates of needle sharing, and moderate to high rates of inconsistent condom use. Average knowledge scores of IDU were significantly higher than non-IDU for antiretroviral treatment knowledge, while MSM had significantly less knowledge of treatment compared to non-MSM. HIV/AIDS-related knowledge was not significantly associated with needle-sharing practices. Knowledge was modestly but significantly associated with more consistent use of condoms with primary and commercial sex partners, even after controlling for contact with an outreach worker. Contact with an outreach worker was also an independent predictor of more consistent condom use. Outreach programs appear to play a meaningful role in changing sexual behavior, though the effect of outreach on IDU risk behaviors was less clear. More research is needed to understand the relationship between outreach programs and skill development, motivation, and use of referral services by most-at-risk populations in Vietnam. PMID:23173025

  12. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  13. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  14. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  15. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  16. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  17. Providing Formative Feedback From a Summative Computer-aided Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Sewell, Robert D. E.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives To examine the effectiveness of providing formative feedback for summative computer-aided assessment. Design Two groups of first-year undergraduate life science students in pharmacy and neuroscience who were studying an e-learning package in a common pharmacology module were presented with a computer-based summative assessment. A sheet with individualized feedback derived from each of the 5 results sections of the assessment was provided to each student. Students were asked via a questionnaire to evaluate the form and method of feedback. Assessment The students were able to reflect on their performance and use the feedback provided to guide their future study or revision. There was no significant difference between the responses from pharmacy and neuroscience students. Students' responses on the questionnaire indicated a generally positive reaction to this form of feedback. Conclusions Findings suggest that additional formative assessment conveyed by this style and method would be appreciated and valued by students. PMID:17533442

  18. Psychosocial and behavioral factors associated to STD/AIDS risk among health students.

    PubMed

    Dessunti, Elma Mathias; Advincula Reis, Alberto Olavo

    2007-01-01

    This study aimed to identify and compare psychosocial and behavioral factors associated to STD/AIDS risk among students enrolled in the first and last years of the Nursing and Medical Undergraduate Programs at State University of Londrina. A convenience sample was selected from 263 enrolled students, and the 183 students who were sexually active (70.4%) had their data assessed. The Aids Risk Reduction Model framework was used to design the questionnaire in which a 5% statistical significance level was considered. Some risk factors were identified such as the perception of invulnerability, multiple sexual partners, consumption of alcoholic beverages before intercourse, and the discontinuous use or no use of condom. The risk factors are common both to the freshman and senior students, with no significant differences related to the passage of time or to the students' higher educational level. Senior students tend to be monogamous which makes them feel safer and decrease the use of condom with their sexual partners. PMID:17546359

  19. Babies' portal website hearing aid section: assessment by audiologists.

    PubMed

    Bastos, Bárbara Guimarães; Ferrari, Deborah Viviane

    2014-10-01

    Introduction The family has ultimate responsibility for decisions about the use and care during the daily routine and problem solving in the manipulation of hearing aids (HA) in infants and children. Objective The purpose of the study was to assess technical and content quality of Babies' Portal website Hearing Aid section by audiologists. Methods Letters and e-mails were sent inviting professionals to surf the website and anonymously fill out an online form with 58 questions covering demographic data as well as the website's technical (Emory questionnaire with the subscales of accuracy, authorship, updates, public, navigation, links, and structure) and content quality. Results A total of 109 professionals (tree men and 106 women) with mean age of 31.6 years participated in the study. Emory percentage scores ranged from 90.1 to 96.7%. The Hearing Aid section contents were considered good or very good. Conclusion The website was deemed to have good technical and content quality, being suitable to supplement informational counseling to parents of hearing-impaired children fitted with hearing aids. PMID:25992119

  20. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  1. The Relational-Behavior Model: A Pilot Assessment Study for At-Risk College Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chandler, Donald S., Jr.; Perkins, Michele D.

    2007-01-01

    This pilot study examined the relational-behavior model (RBM) as an HIV/AIDS assessment tool for at-risk college populations. Based on this theory, a survey was constructed to assess the six areas associated with HIV/AIDS prevention: personal awareness, knowledge deficiency, relational skills, HIV/STD stigmatization, community awareness, and…

  2. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  3. HIV/AIDS Knowledge Scores and Perceptions of Risk Among African American Students Attending Historically Black Colleges and Universities

    PubMed Central

    Sutton, Madeline Y.; Hardnett, Felicia P.; Wright, Pierre; Wahi, Sagina; Pathak, Sonal; Warren-Jeanpiere, Lari; Jones, Sandra

    2011-01-01

    Objective African American young adults are disproportionately affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic and often unaware of their personal risk for HIV. Historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) enroll 25% of college-educated African American young adults and can play an important role in HIV prevention. We examined HIV/AIDS knowledge of students at HBCUs to inform and strengthen our HIV prevention efforts at HBCUs. Methods African American undergraduate HBCU students completed online surveys assessing HIV/AIDS knowledge and behaviors, and we analyzed data to assess their knowledge and behaviors. Results A total of 1,051 of 1,230 surveys completed (85.4%) were analyzable. Eighty-two percent of students had average/high HIV knowledge scores. Seventy-nine percent of students surveyed perceived themselves to be at low risk for HIV infection; 64% of those who had at least two or more sex partners had not used a condom at last sex encounter. In the final model, significant independent effects were identified for average/high knowledge of HIV risk, including agreeing with assessing a potential partner's HIV risk by all of the five actions listed (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7, 4.3) and never using a needle to inject drugs (AOR=5.6, 95% CI 3.2, 9.7). Conclusions Educating students about effectively assessing sex partner risk will improve HIV knowledge and prevention efforts at HBCUs. PMID:21886325

  4. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  5. Assessing business responses to HIV / AIDS in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Roberts, M; Wangombe, J

    1995-01-01

    A consulting firm conducted interviews with managers of 16 businesses in 3 Kenyan cities, representatives of 2 trade unions, focus groups with workers at 13 companies, and an analysis of financial/labor data from 4 companies. It then did a needs assessment. The business types were light industry, manufacturing companies, tourism organizations, transport firms, agro-industrial and plantation businesses, and the service industry. Only one company followed all the workplace policy principles recommended by the World Health Organization and the International Labor Organization. Six businesses required all applicants and/or employees to undergo HIV testing. All their managers claimed that they would not discriminate against HIV-infected workers. Many workers thought that they would be fired if they were--or were suspected to be--HIV positive. Lack of a non-discrimination policy brings about worker mistrust of management. 11 companies had some type of HIV/AIDS education program. All the programs generated positive feedback. The main reasons for not providing HIV/AIDS education for the remaining 5 companies were: no employee requests, fears that it would be taboo, and assumptions that workers could receive adequate information elsewhere. More than 90% of all companies distributed condoms. 60% offered sexually transmitted disease diagnosis and treatment. About 33% offered counseling. Four companies provided volunteer HIV testing. Almost 50% of companies received financial or other external support for their programs. Most managers thought AIDS to be a problem mainly with manual staff and not with professional staff. Almost all businesses offered some medical benefits. The future impact of HIV/AIDS would be $90/employee/year (by 2005, $260) due to health care costs, absenteeism, retraining, and burial benefits. The annual costs of a comprehensive workplace HIV/AIDS prevention program varied from $18 to $54/worker at one company. PMID:12289839

  6. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  7. CART V: recent advancements in computer-aided camouflage assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Thomas; Müller, Markus

    2011-05-01

    In order to facilitate systematic, computer aided improvements of camouflage and concealment assessment methods, the software system CART (Camouflage Assessment in Real-Time) was built up for the camouflage assessment of objects in multispectral image sequences (see contributions to SPIE 2007-2010 [1], [2], [3], [4]). It comprises a semi-automatic marking of target objects (ground truth generation) including their propagation over the image sequence and the evaluation via user-defined feature extractors as well as methods to assess the object's movement conspicuity. In this fifth part in an annual series at the SPIE conference in Orlando, this paper presents the enhancements over the recent year and addresses the camouflage assessment of static and moving objects in multispectral image data that can show noise or image artefacts. The presented methods fathom the correlations between image processing and camouflage assessment. A novel algorithm is presented based on template matching to assess the structural inconspicuity of an object objectively and quantitatively. The results can easily be combined with an MTI (moving target indication) based movement conspicuity assessment function in order to explore the influence of object movement to a camouflage effect in different environments. As the results show, the presented methods contribute to a significant benefit in the field of camouflage assessment.

  8. Financial Aid and Persistence in Community Colleges: Assessing the Effectiveness of Federal and State Financial Aid Programs in Oklahoma

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mendoza, Pilar; Mendez, Jesse P.; Malcolm, Zaria

    2009-01-01

    Using a longitudinal, state-wide dataset, this study assessed the effect of financial aid on the persistence of full-time students in associate's degree programs at the Oklahoma community colleges. Three financial-aid sources were examined: the Oklahoma Higher Learning Access Program (OHLAP), Pell grants, and Stafford loans. Results indicate that…

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  10. [Predictive microbiology and risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, G; Kleer, J

    2004-05-01

    Predictive microbiology (predictive modelling PM), in spite of its limits and short-comings, may often contribute to a reduction of the problems arising when HACCP systems are established or microbiological risk assessment is done. Having identified the agents which constitute a risk and the contamination rate and density in the raw material, the influences of production steps and storage on these microorganisms have to be examined. Finally, there should be an exposure assessment, i.e. an estimate of the contamination density in the final product at the time of consumption. Should the exposure assessment together with data from dose response assessments reveal a potential for intake of inacceptable numbers of organisms, the risk identified has to be characterized. As a consequence, risk management should result in a modification of the composition of the product and/or of the production process so that the risk does not surpass an acceptable limit. For this approach it is indispensable to have product- and process-specific information on the multiplication of pathogens prior to heat treatment, on reduction of their density by thermal treatment and on growth or dying of organisms having survived heat treatment or penetrated into the product after heat treatment as post-process contaminant. Commonly, challenge tests are conducted to provide such information. But they are time consuming and, as their results are only valid for the specific product tested and the conditions prevailing during the experiment, the have to be repeated if there is any modification of intrinsic or extrinsic factors. At least partially, the PM may replace the challenge tests. The efficiency of the models is rated particularly high if they are used already at the stage of product development when the question has to be answered whether a planned recipe or process of production are already save or have to be modified to become save. PMID:15233338

  11. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  12. Nuclear weapon system risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Carlson, D.D.

    1993-11-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a process for evaluating hazardous operations by considering what can go wrong, the likelihood of these undesired events, and the resultant consequences. Techniques used in PRA originated in the 1960s. Although there were early exploratory applications to nuclear weapons and other technologies, the first major application of these techniques was in the Reactor Safety Study, WASH-1400, {sup 1} in which the risks of nuclear power accidents were thoroughly investigated for the first time. Recently, these techniques have begun to be adapted to nuclear weapon system applications. This report discusses this application to nuclear weapon systems.

  13. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned

    SciTech Connect

    DeShields, B.R.; Stelljes, M.E.; Hawkins, E.T.; Alsop, W.R.

    1995-12-31

    On the basis of experience with ecological risk assessments and regulatory involvement in the process, a number of lessons can be learned relating to design, implementation, and reporting of ecological risk assessments. A number of case studies will be presented in order to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches. Issues surrounding the selection of assessment and measurement endpoints, receptors, accuracy of models when compared with field data, bioavailability of chemicals, selection of appropriate reference sites, availability of relevant toxicological data, utility of bioassays, and accounting for temporal and seasonal variability, species adaptation, and ecological relevance will be examined. In addition, effective ways of dealing with limitations such as duration and cost of the assessments will be evaluated. Case studies ranging from large, complex Superfund sites to small, relatively simplistic sites will be included. By scrutinizing the approaches used and the outcomes of these case studies, insight can be gained that will allow risk assessors to deal with limitations and to focus future efforts to provide useful and relevant information and sound scientifically-based results.

  14. Thinking about "Think Again" in Canada: assessing a social marketing HIV/AIDS prevention campaign.

    PubMed

    Lombardo, Anthony P; Léger, Yves A

    2007-06-01

    The Canadian "Think Again" social marketing HIV/AIDS prevention campaign, adapted from an American effort, encourages gay men to rethink their assumptions about their partners' HIV statuses and the risks of unsafe sex with them. To improve future efforts, existing HIV/AIDS prevention initiatives require critical reflection. While a formal evaluation of this campaign has been carried out elsewhere, here we use the campaign as a social marketing case study to illustrate its strengths and weaknesses, as a learning tool for other campaigns. After describing the campaign and its key results, we assess how it utilized central tenets of the social marketing process, such as formative research and the marketing mix. We then speak to the importance of theoretical influence in campaign design and the need to account for social-contextual factors in safer sex decision making. We conclude with a summary of the lessons learned from the assessment of this campaign. PMID:17558789

  15. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  16. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  17. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    PubMed

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  18. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  19. A Brief Assessment for HIV Risk: The TCU HVHP Form.

    PubMed

    Rowan, Grace A; Joe, George W; Lehman, Wayne E K; Knight, Kevin

    2016-07-01

    Targeted HIV screens may help identify some risk-related concerns of drug-using offenders. The present study describes the Texas Christian University HIV/Hepatitis Risk Assessment (TCU HVHP) form, a 19-item self-report instrument measuring HIV and hepatitis risks based on a sample (N = 1,056) of offenders in eight prisons. Principal components analysis indicated four scales (Injection Risk, Condom Attitudes, Sex Risk, and AIDS Concern) with reliable psychometric properties with coefficient α reliabilities ranging from .72 to .88. Concurrent validities indicated the four scales were related to motivation for treatment, level of drug use, psychosocial functioning, and criminal thinking, although the patterns varied by gender. The TCU HVHP Form should be attractive to programs needing a brief assessment measuring HIV risk behaviors, attitudes toward condom use, and concerns about acquiring and transmitting HIV. PMID:27302708

  20. AIDS: Are Children at Risk? ERIC Digest 16.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    ERIC Clearinghouse on Teacher Education, Washington, DC.

    Lack of knowledge and misinformation about Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), a fatal disease with no cure or vaccine, has caused widespread public concern. Education is an effective way to reduce fears and prevent the spread of the disease. Public school personnel must have accurate information about AIDS in order to make suitable…

  1. High-risk behaviors among adult men and women in Botswana: implications for HIV/AIDS prevention efforts.

    PubMed

    Keetile, Mpho

    2014-01-01

    The government of Botswana has been spending a lot of money in the prevention, treatment, care and support for HIV/AIDS patient for decades. This paper uses data from the third Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS III) to explore high-risk behaviors of adults and how they affect government efforts to stop the spread of HIV/AIDS. The objective of this paper is to fill in the gap on the assessment of high-risk behaviors associated with HIV/AIDS and their implications on HIV/AIDS prevention efforts. A nationally representative sample of 10,159 men and women aged 20-64 years who had successfully completed the BAIS III individual questionnaire were used in the study. Both descriptive and binary logistic regression analyses were used for analysis. Crude odds ratios were obtained from gross effects model while adjusted odds ratios (AOR) were obtained from the net effects model. Statistically significant association was observed between multiple current partners and alcohol consumption (AOR = 1.5), drug abuse (AOR = 1.7), transactional sex (AOR = 2.6) and intergenerational sex (AOR = 1.07). Furthermore, statistically significant association was seen for inconsistent condom use and having tested for HIV (AOR = 1.5). These results show a worrying tendency that despite government's efforts to stop the spread of HIV/AIDS, adults in Botswana continue to indulge in high-risk behaviors. Therefore, any programs and policies on HIV/AIDS should first target these high-risk behaviors. PMID:25293869

  2. Risk assessment of shellfish toxins.

    PubMed

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-11-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  3. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  4. The effect of a decision aid intervention on decision making about coronary heart disease risk reduction: secondary analyses of a randomized trial

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Decision aids offer promise as a practical solution to improve patient decision making about coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention medications and help patients choose medications to which they are likely to adhere. However, little data is available on decision aids designed to promote adherence. Methods In this paper, we report on secondary analyses of a randomized trial of a CHD adherence intervention (second generation decision aid plus tailored messages) versus usual care in an effort to understand how the decision aid facilitates adherence. We focus on data collected from the primary study visit, when intervention participants presented 45 minutes early to a previously scheduled provider visit; viewed the decision aid, indicating their intent for CHD risk reduction after each decision aid component (individualized risk assessment and education, values clarification, and coaching); and filled out a post-decision aid survey assessing their knowledge, perceived risk, decisional conflict, and intent for CHD risk reduction. Control participants did not present early and received usual care from their provider. Following the provider visit, participants in both groups completed post-visit surveys assessing the number and quality of CHD discussions with their provider, their intent for CHD risk reduction, and their feelings about the decision aid. Results We enrolled 160 patients into our study (81 intervention, 79 control). Within the decision aid group, the decision aid significantly increased knowledge of effective CHD prevention strategies (+21 percentage points; adjusted p<.0001) and the accuracy of perceived CHD risk (+33 percentage points; adjusted p<.0001), and significantly decreased decisional conflict (-0.63; adjusted p<.0001). Comparing between study groups, the decision aid also significantly increased CHD prevention discussions with providers (+31 percentage points; adjusted p<.0001) and improved perceptions of some features of patient

  5. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real problems, and…

  6. Investigating the Impact of Financial Aid on Student Dropout Risks: Racial and Ethnic Differences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Rong; DesJardins, Stephen L.

    2010-01-01

    This study focuses on the differences in college student dropout behavior among racial/ethnic groups. We employ event history methods and data from the Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS) and National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) surveys to investigate how financial aid may differentially influence dropout risks among these student…

  7. Why Breast Cancer Risk by the Numbers Is Not Enough: Evaluation of a Decision Aid in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Numerate Women

    PubMed Central

    Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham; Aguirre, Alejandra; Smalletz, Cindy; David, Raven; Crew, Katherine

    2015-01-01

    Background Breast cancer risk assessment including genetic testing can be used to classify people into different risk groups with screening and preventive interventions tailored to the needs of each group, yet the implementation of risk-stratified breast cancer prevention in primary care settings is complex. Objective To address barriers to breast cancer risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention strategies in primary care settings, we developed a Web-based decision aid, RealRisks, that aims to improve preference-based decision-making for breast cancer prevention, particularly in low-numerate women. Methods RealRisks incorporates experience-based dynamic interfaces to communicate risk aimed at reducing inaccurate risk perceptions, with modules on breast cancer risk, genetic testing, and chemoprevention that are tailored. To begin, participants learn about risk by interacting with two games of experience-based risk interfaces, demonstrating average 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk. We conducted four focus groups in English-speaking women (age ≥18 years), a questionnaire completed before and after interacting with the decision aid, and a semistructured group discussion. We employed a mixed-methods approach to assess accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk and acceptability of RealRisks. The qualitative analysis of the semistructured discussions assessed understanding of risk, risk models, and risk appropriate prevention strategies. Results Among 34 participants, mean age was 53.4 years, 62% (21/34) were Hispanic, and 41% (14/34) demonstrated low numeracy. According to the Gail breast cancer risk assessment tool (BCRAT), the mean 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk were 1.11% (SD 0.77) and 7.46% (SD 2.87), respectively. After interacting with RealRisks, the difference in perceived and estimated breast cancer risk according to BCRAT improved for 5-year risk (P=.008). In the qualitative analysis, we identified potential barriers to adopting risk

  8. Risk of deaths, AIDS-defining and non-AIDS defining events among Ghanaians on long-term combination antiretroviral therapy.

    PubMed

    Sarfo, Fred Stephen; Sarfo, Maame Anima; Norman, Betty; Phillips, Richard; Bedu-Addo, George; Chadwick, David

    2014-01-01

    Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has been widely available in Ghana since 2004. The aim of this cohort study was to assess the incidences of death, AIDS-defining events and non-AIDS defining events and associated risk factors amongst patients initiating cART in a large treatment centre. Clinical and laboratory data were extracted from clinic and hospital case notes for patients initiating cART between 2004 and 2010 and clinical events graded according to recognised definitions for AIDS, non-AIDS events (NADE) and death, with additional events not included in such definitions such as malaria also included. The cumulative incidence of events was calculated using Kaplan Meier analysis, and association of risk factors with events by Cox proportional hazards regression. Data were closed for analysis on 31st December, 2011 after a median follow-up of 30 months (range, 0-90 months). Amongst 4,039 patients starting cART at a median CD4 count of 133 cells/mm3, there were 324 (8%) confirmed deaths, with an event rate of 28.83 (95% CI 25.78-32.15) deaths per 1000-person follow-up years; the commonest established causes were pulmonary TB and gastroenteritis. There were 681 AIDS-defining events (60.60 [56.14-65.33] per 1000 person years) with pulmonary TB and chronic diarrhoea being the most frequent causes. Forty-one NADEs were recorded (3.64 [2.61-4.95] per 1000 person years), of which hepatic and cardiovascular events were most common. Other common events recorded outside these definitions included malaria (746 events) and respiratory tract infections (666 events). Overall 24% of patients were lost-to-follow-up. Alongside expected risk factors, stavudine use was associated with AIDS [adjusted HR of 1.08 (0.90-1.30)] and death (adjusted HR of 1.60 [1.21-2.11]). Whilst frequency of AIDS and deaths in this cohort were similar to those described in other sub-Saharan African cohorts, rates of NADEs were lower and far exceeded by events such as malaria and respiratory

  9. Risk of Deaths, AIDS-Defining and Non-AIDS Defining Events among Ghanaians on Long-Term Combination Antiretroviral Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Sarfo, Fred Stephen; Sarfo, Maame Anima; Norman, Betty; Phillips, Richard; Bedu-Addo, George; Chadwick, David

    2014-01-01

    Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has been widely available in Ghana since 2004. The aim of this cohort study was to assess the incidences of death, AIDS-defining events and non-AIDS defining events and associated risk factors amongst patients initiating cART in a large treatment centre. Clinical and laboratory data were extracted from clinic and hospital case notes for patients initiating cART between 2004 and 2010 and clinical events graded according to recognised definitions for AIDS, non-AIDS events (NADE) and death, with additional events not included in such definitions such as malaria also included. The cumulative incidence of events was calculated using Kaplan Meier analysis, and association of risk factors with events by Cox proportional hazards regression. Data were closed for analysis on 31st December, 2011 after a median follow-up of 30 months (range, 0–90 months). Amongst 4,039 patients starting cART at a median CD4 count of 133 cells/mm3, there were 324 (8%) confirmed deaths, with an event rate of 28.83 (95% CI 25.78–32.15) deaths per 1000-person follow-up years; the commonest established causes were pulmonary TB and gastroenteritis. There were 681 AIDS-defining events (60.60 [56.14–65.33] per 1000 person years) with pulmonary TB and chronic diarrhoea being the most frequent causes. Forty-one NADEs were recorded (3.64 [2.61–4.95] per 1000 person years), of which hepatic and cardiovascular events were most common. Other common events recorded outside these definitions included malaria (746 events) and respiratory tract infections (666 events). Overall 24% of patients were lost-to-follow-up. Alongside expected risk factors, stavudine use was associated with AIDS [adjusted HR of 1.08 (0.90–1.30)] and death (adjusted HR of 1.60 [1.21–2.11]). Whilst frequency of AIDS and deaths in this cohort were similar to those described in other sub-Saharan African cohorts, rates of NADEs were lower and far exceeded by events such as malaria and

  10. ECO 201: Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objectives of this course is to provide participants with knowledge about the fundamentals of ecological risk assessment. A brief history of how ecological risk assessment has evolved over time and how it is both similar to and different from human health risk assessment wil...

  11. Human factors and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Minhali, A.

    1996-11-01

    A case study was presented in the 1994 Abu Dhabi International Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC, 94) which discussed the importance of investigating human factors in the design of a high integrity protection system (HIPS) to be installed on an offshore high pressure gas platform, (SPE reference ADSPE 80). This paper will follow up on the design changes, installation and operation of the HIPS with emphasis on practical implications as a result of improper integration of human factors in the system reliability and risk assessment studies.

  12. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  13. Cognitive Aids in Medicine Assessment Tool (CMAT): preliminary validation of a novel tool for the assessment of emergency cognitive aids.

    PubMed

    Evans, D; McCahon, R; Barley, M; Norris, A; Khajuria, A; Moppett, I

    2015-08-01

    Applying human factors principles to the design of clinical emergency guidelines is important. The UK Civil Aviation Authority uses a Checklist Assessment Tool for evaluating the content and usability of emergency drills before introduction into service on aircraft. We hypothesised that this model could be used to develop a generic medical tool. A three-stage modified Delphi process was used to adapt the above tool for use in designing medical emergency guidelines. The resulting Cognitive aids in Medicine Assessment Tool was then used to score and rank seven published difficult airway guidelines; the scores were used to assess its validity and reliability. Pearson's rank coefficient between these scores and scores from independent assessors was 0.89 (p = 0.007). Internal consistency, as assessed by Cronbach's alpha, was 0.74, 0.96 and 0.72 for the tool's three constituent domains of physical characteristics, content and layout/format, respectively. Inter-rater reliability, as assessed by Cohen's kappa, ranged from 0.33 to 0.72. The adoption of our tool has the potential to improve the usability of medical emergency guidelines. PMID:25758401

  14. Cumulative risk and AIDS-orphanhood: interactions of stigma, bullying and poverty on child mental health in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Cluver, Lucie; Orkin, Mark

    2009-10-01

    Research shows that AIDS-orphaned children are more likely to experience clinical-range psychological problems. Little is known about possible interactions between factors mediating these high distress levels. We assessed how food insecurity, bullying, and AIDS-related stigma interacted with each other and with likelihood of experiencing clinical-range disorder. In South Africa, 1025 adolescents completed standardised measures of depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress. 52 potential mediators were measured, including AIDS-orphanhood status. Logistic regressions and hierarchical log-linear modelling were used to identify interactions among significant risk factors. Food insecurity, stigma and bullying all independently increased likelihood of disorder. Poverty and stigma were found to interact strongly, and with both present, likelihood of disorder rose from 19% to 83%. Similarly, bullying interacted with AIDS-orphanhood status, and with both present, likelihood of disorder rose from 12% to 76%. Approaches to alleviating psychological distress amongst AIDS-affected children must address cumulative risk effects. PMID:19713022

  15. Metabolism, variability and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dorne, J L C M

    2010-02-01

    improve the risk assessment of chemical mixtures were explored (1) harmonization of the use of uncertainty factors for human and ecological risk assessment using mechanistic descriptors (2) use of toxicokinetics interaction data to derive UFs for chemical mixtures. The use of toxicokinetics data in risk assessment are discussed together with future approaches including sound statistical approaches to optimise predictability of models and recombinant technology/toxicokinetics assays to identify metabolic routes for chemicals and screen mixtures of environmental health importance. PMID:19932147

  16. RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

  17. Determinants of intentions of Junior High School students to become sexually active and use condoms: implications for reduction and prevention of AIDS risk.

    PubMed

    Epstein, J A; Dusenbury, L; Botvin, G J; Diaz, T

    1994-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine factors associated with young adolescents' increased risk for AIDS. A multiethnic sample of 303 seventh-grade students in three schools in the greater New York area completed questionnaires assessing their basic demographic characteristics (gender and ethnicity), AIDS knowledge, substance use (cigarette smoking, alcohol use), and decision-making skills. AIDS knowledge, substance use, decision-making skills, gender, and ethnicity predicted intentions to engage in sexual behavior in the future. Relevant knowledge of AIDS was associated with lower intentions to engage in sexual behavior in the future. More frequent substance use, less frequent use of decision-making skills, and being male increased intentions to engage in sexual behavior in the future. Our findings are discussed in terms of their implications for education and prevention of adolescent sexual activity and AIDS-risk reduction. PMID:7862778

  18. Teachers' Attitudes toward HIV/AIDS: An American National Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brucker, Benjamin W.; Hall, Wayne H.

    1996-01-01

    Examined teachers' attitudes toward HIV/AIDS. A random sample of 1,500 teachers completed a 22-item questionnaire. Results show that respondents were opposed to the concept of testing for AIDS, although females were more positive toward the idea than were males. The majority of the respondents favored the idea of providing an HIV/AIDS awareness…

  19. AIDS awareness and attitudes among Yemeni young people living in high-risk areas.

    PubMed

    Al-Serouri, A W; Anaam, M; Al-Iryani, B; Al Deram, A; Ramaroson, S

    2010-03-01

    Despite te low rate of infection in Yemen, there are concerns about the possible spread of HIV among high-risk and vulnerable groups. A community-based study was made in 2005 of AIDS awareness and attitudes among 601 young people aged 15-24 years from low-income, high-risk neighbourhoods in Aden. Young people lacked proper information about HIV/AIDS. Although 89% had heard of AIDS, fewer (46%) could name 3 ways of transmission or 3 ways to avoid infection (28%). Misconceptions about modes of transmissions were prevalent and many young people believed that they faced little or no risk. There were intolerant attitudes towards AIDS patients. About half the young people knew that prostitution and homosexuality existed in their area. PMID:20795436

  20. Who profits from visual aids: overcoming challenges in people's understanding of risks [corrected].

    PubMed

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Galesic, Mirta

    2010-04-01

    Many people have difficulties grasping numerical concepts that are prerequisites for understanding treatment risk reduction. Visual aids have been proposed as a promising method for enhancing comprehension. In a survey of probabilistic, nationally representative samples in two different countries (United States and Germany), we compared the effectiveness of adding different types of visual aids (icon arrays and bar graphs representing either affected individuals only or the entire population at risk) to the numerical information in either an absolute or a relative risk reduction format. We also analyzed whether people's numeracy and graphical literacy skills affected the efficacy of the visual aids. Our results showed large improvements in accuracy both when icon arrays and when bar graphs were added to numerical information. Highest increases were achieved when the visual aids depicted the entire population at risk. Importantly, visual aids were most useful for the participants who had low numeracy but relatively high graphical literacy skills. Building on previous research showing that problems with understanding numerical information often do not reside in people's minds, but in the representation of the problem, our results show that visual aids help to modify incorrect expectations about treatment risk reduction. Our results have important implications for medical practice. PMID:20116159

  1. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  2. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  3. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  4. Perceived Susceptibility to AIDS Predicts Subsequent HIV Risk: A Longitudinal Evaluation of Jail Inmates

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Leah M.; Stuewig, Jeffrey B.; Tangney, June P.; Kashdan, Todd B.

    2013-01-01

    Theories of health behavior change suggest that perceived susceptibility to illness precedes health-protective behavior. We used a cross-lagged panel design to explore the relationship between perceived susceptibility to AIDS, and HIV risk behavior pre-incarceration and post-release in a sample of 499 jail inmates, a group at high risk for HIV. We also explored moderators of this relationship. HIV risk was calculated with a Bernoulli mathematical process model. Controlling for pre-incarceration HIV risk, perceived susceptibility to AIDS predicted less post-release HIV risk; the reverse relationship was not supported. Consistent with health behavior change theories, perceived susceptibility seemed to partially guide behavior. However, this relationship was not true for everyone. African-Americans and individuals high in borderline personality features exhibited no relationship between perceived susceptibility and changes in HIV risk. This suggests that targeted interventions are needed to use information about risk level to prevent HIV contraction. PMID:23591920

  5. Perceived susceptibility to AIDS predicts subsequent HIV risk: a longitudinal evaluation of jail inmates.

    PubMed

    Adams, Leah M; Stuewig, Jeffrey B; Tangney, June P; Kashdan, Todd B

    2014-06-01

    Theories of health behavior change suggest that perceived susceptibility to illness precedes health-protective behavior. We used a cross-lagged panel design to explore the relationship between perceived susceptibility to AIDS, and HIV risk behavior pre-incarceration and post-release in a sample of 499 jail inmates, a group at high risk for HIV. We also explored moderators of this relationship. HIV risk was calculated with a Bernoulli mathematical process model. Controlling for pre-incarceration HIV risk, perceived susceptibility to AIDS predicted less post-release HIV risk; the reverse relationship was not supported. Consistent with health behavior change theories, perceived susceptibility seemed to partially guide behavior. However, this relationship was not true for everyone. African-Americans and individuals high in borderline personality features exhibited no relationship between perceived susceptibility and changes in HIV risk. This suggests that targeted interventions are needed to use information about risk level to prevent HIV contraction. PMID:23591920

  6. Impact of national HIV and AIDS communication campaigns in South Africa to reduce HIV risk behaviour.

    PubMed

    Peltzer, Karl; Parker, Warren; Mabaso, Musawenkosi; Makonko, Elias; Zuma, Khangelani; Ramlagan, Shandir

    2012-01-01

    In South Africa social and behavioural communication interventions are a critical component of HIV/AIDS prevention, and numerous communication campaigns have been implemented intensively across the country through government initiatives and nongovernmental organisations over the past decade. The aim of this paper is to assess the reach of HIV and AIDS communication campaigns in conjunction with contributions to knowledge, attitudes, and HIV risk behaviours in the general population in South Africa. The sample included in this nationally representative cross-sectional survey was 13234 people aged 15-55 years. Overall, the study found that there was high exposure to 18 different HIV communication programmes (median 6 programmes and 14 programmes more than 30%) across different age groups. Most programmes were more often seen or heard by young people aged between 15 and 24 years. In multivariate analysis, greater exposure to HIV mass communication programmes was associated with greater HIV knowledge, condom use at last sex, having tested for HIV in the past 12 months, and less stigmatizing attitude toward PLWHA. PMID:23213285

  7. Willingness to participate in AIDS vaccine trials among high-risk populations in northern Thailand.

    PubMed

    Celentano, D D; Beyrer, C; Natpratan, C; Eiumtrakul, S; Sussman, L; Renzullo, P O; Khamboonruang, C; Nelson, K E

    1995-09-01

    Thailand has been designated a site for preventive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine trials, and Phase I and II trials are currently underway. To assess the feasibility of large-scale Phase III trials involving high-risk individuals, questionnaires were administered to four cohorts of potential participants from North Thailand: 215 female commercial sex workers recruited from sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics, 219 male STD clients from the same area, 1453 men conscripted into the Royal Thai Army in 1993, and 293 men discharged from the Army in 1993. Approximately 25% of members of each cohort indicated they would definitely join a prophylactic acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) trial. The major barriers to participation were concerns about vaccine safety (61% of military cohorts and 32% of civilians) and fear of acquiring AIDS through vaccination (21%). Also expressed were concerns about social discrimination, immediate side effects, and rejection by sexual partner. Two-thirds of respondents indicated that provision of a five-year family health insurance plan would induce them to participate in a vaccine trial, while another 25% did not require any incentive. Overall, these findings indicate that steps must be taken to alleviate fears and misconceptions associated with HIV vaccines before Phase III is initiated. PMID:8527082

  8. Impact of National HIV and AIDS Communication Campaigns in South Africa to Reduce HIV Risk Behaviour

    PubMed Central

    Peltzer, Karl; Parker, Warren; Mabaso, Musawenkosi; Makonko, Elias; Zuma, Khangelani; Ramlagan, Shandir

    2012-01-01

    In South Africa social and behavioural communication interventions are a critical component of HIV/AIDS prevention, and numerous communication campaigns have been implemented intensively across the country through government initiatives and nongovernmental organisations over the past decade. The aim of this paper is to assess the reach of HIV and AIDS communication campaigns in conjunction with contributions to knowledge, attitudes, and HIV risk behaviours in the general population in South Africa. The sample included in this nationally representative cross-sectional survey was 13234 people aged 15–55 years. Overall, the study found that there was high exposure to 18 different HIV communication programmes (median 6 programmes and 14 programmes more than 30%) across different age groups. Most programmes were more often seen or heard by young people aged between 15 and 24 years. In multivariate analysis, greater exposure to HIV mass communication programmes was associated with greater HIV knowledge, condom use at last sex, having tested for HIV in the past 12 months, and less stigmatizing attitude toward PLWHA. PMID:23213285

  9. STARA (STUDIES ON TOXICITY APPLICABLE TO RISK ASSESSMENT) TOXICITY DATA BASE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a toxicity data base to aid in the development of risk assessment methodologies and the assessment of health hazards from hazardous waste sites and chemical spills. Th...

  10. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects. PMID:15260335

  11. Health Costs of Wealth Gains: Labor Migration and Perceptions of HIV/AIDS Risks in Mozambique

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Agadjanian, Victor; Arnaldo, Carlos; Cau, Boaventura

    2011-01-01

    The study employs survey data from rural Mozambique to examine how men's labor migration affects their non-migrating wives' perceptions of HIV/AIDS risks. Using a conceptual framework centered on tradeoffs between economic security and health risks that men's migration entails for their left-behind wives, it compares women married to migrants and…

  12. Perception of HIV/AIDS Risk among Urban, Low-Income Senior-Housing Residents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ward, Elijah G.; Disch, William B.; Levy, Judith A.; Schensul, Jean J.

    2004-01-01

    Despite the rising number of cases of HIV in adults over age 50, older persons rarely are considered to be at risk for HIV/AIDS, and even though they may be involved in risky behavior, such as unprotected penetrative sex, they may not consider themselves vulnerable to becoming infected. Informed awareness of risk is essential to making positive…

  13. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  14. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches. PMID:24984514

  15. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  16. DEVELOPMENT OF APPROACHES FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A population focused cumulative health risk assessment of a contaminated site or situation can include the evaluation of toxic risk from multiple chemicals, by multiple pathways, over different time frames of exposure, with multiple sensitive population subgroups, and possibly ot...

  17. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  18. Issues in risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The volume is the first in a series to be prepared by the Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology (CRAM) in the National Research Council's Board on Enviromental Studies and Toxicology. Three issues related to risk assessment are addressed here: use of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in animal bioassays for carcinogenicity, the two-state model of carcinogenesis, and a paradigm for ecologic risk assessment.

  19. [Forest health ecological risk assessment in China].

    PubMed

    Xiao, Fengjin; Ouyang, Hua; Cheng, Shulan; Zhang, Qiang

    2004-02-01

    Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management. PMID:15146655

  20. The effects of HIV/AIDS intervention groups for high-risk women in urban clinics.

    PubMed Central

    Kelly, J A; Murphy, D A; Washington, C D; Wilson, T S; Koob, J J; Davis, D R; Ledezma, G; Davantes, B

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE. This study reports the results of a behavior change intervention offered to women at high risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection seen in an urban primary health care clinic. METHODS. Participants were 197 women randomly assigned to either an HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) risk reduction group or a comparison group. Women in the HIV/AIDS intervention group attended five group sessions focusing on risk education; skills training in condom use, sexual assertiveness, problem solving, and risk trigger self-management; and peer support for change efforts. Women in the comparison group attended sessions on health topics unrelated to AIDS. RESULTS. At the 3-month follow-up, women in the HIV/AIDS intervention group had increased in sexual communication and negotiation skills. Unprotected sexual intercourse had declined significantly and condom use had increased from 26% to 56% of all intercourse occasions. Women in the comparison group showed no change. CONCLUSIONS. Socially disadvantaged women can be assisted in reducing their risk of contracting HIV infection. Risk reduction behavior change interventions should be offered routinely in primary health care clinics serving low-income and high-risk patients. PMID:7998630

  1. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  2. HIV/AIDS Knowledge, Attitude and Risk Perception among Pregnant Women in a Teaching Hospital, Southwestern Nigeria

    PubMed Central

    Ojieabu, Winifred Aitalegbe; Femi-Oyewo, M. N.; Eze, Uchenna I.

    2011-01-01

    Aim: The rising HIV infection rates among women especially of child bearing age particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa expose children to increased HIV risk even before they are born. Without effective measures or awareness campaigns to deal with mother-to-child transmission, 390 000 out of the global 430 000 children newly infected with HIV during 2008 were from sub-Saharan Africa This study was undertaken to assess HIV/AIDS related knowledge, attitude and risk perception among pregnant women in Tertiary hospital, Southwestern Nigeria Method: The study was carried out using a 43- item self administered questionnaire, pretestd and administered to 403 pregnant women during ante-natal clinic sessions Results: High HIV/AIDS awareness level (97%) was recorded, 77.7% had correct knowledge of the cause of the disease but knowledge on the modes of vertical transmission during pregnancy (57.5%) and prevention during breast-feeding (62.3%) was not encouraging A lot of misconceptions about the cause of the HIV/AIDS, modes of contact, transmission, prevention and anti-retroviral therapy were recorded Conclusion: The survey revealed that a lot needed to be done to improve the knowledge, attitude, perception and behavioral changes among the populace especially in this particular group. This calls for urgent and proper response in order to stem the tide of HIV/AIDS. PMID:24826022

  3. THE LANGUAGE OF BLACK GAY MEN’S SEXUAL BEHAVIOR: IMPLICATIONS FOR AIDS RISK REDUCTION

    PubMed Central

    Mays, Vickie M.; Cochran, Susan D.; Bellinger, George; Smith, Robert G.; Henley, Nancy; Daniels, Marlon; Tibbits, Thomas; Victorianne, Gregory D.; Osei, Olu Kwasi; Birt, Darryl K.

    2011-01-01

    The development of appropriate AIDS risk reduction interventions targeted at African-American gay men could be aided by an awareness of their terminology for specific sexual behaviors and types of sexual encounters. This paper explores similarities and differences between the HIV-related sexual language of Black and White gay men. While much of the vernacular is shared, differences in some terms and greater or lesser emphasis on others are apparent. PMID:25382870

  4. Interrelationships between HIV/AIDS and risk behavior prejudice among medical students in Southern China.

    PubMed

    Chan, Kit Yee; Yang, Yi; Li, Ze-rong; Stoové, Mark A; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2009-11-01

    Stigma within health care settings poses a considerable barrier to the provision of treatment and care for patients with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Southern China is located in a region with one of the world's fastest growing HIV/AIDS epidemics. Attitudes towards PLWHA amongst health workers are currently under-researched in this region. This paper examines the inter-relationships between prejudicial attitudes among Chinese medical students towards HIV/AIDS and attitudes towards three risk behaviors: injecting drug use (IDU), commercial sex (CS) and commercial blood donation (CBD). Medical students (N = 352) in Guangzhou were presented with two random vignettes; each describing a hypothetical male that was identical, except for the disease diagnosis (AIDS/leukemia) and the co-characteristic (IDU/CS/CBD/blood transfusion/no co-characteristic). After reading each vignette, participants completed a standard prejudicial scale. Univariate and multivariable analyses revealed significant levels of prejudice associated with AIDS, IDU and CS. Regardless of the disease, patients with IDU or CS were judged significantly worse than patients who had received a blood transfusion. No significant interactions were found between AIDS and the stigmatized co-characteristics. The findings suggest that prejudice towards PLWHA needs to be understood within the larger context of the stigma towards risk behaviors. Although non-significant interactions were found between AIDS and the stigmatized risk behaviors, the overlap between the local HIV/AIDS, IDU and CS populations suggests that addressing risk behavior-related prejudices could be critical for improving care and treatment for PLWHA. PMID:19929795

  5. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  6. Review of Multi-Criteria Decision Aid for Integrated Sustainability Assessment of Urban Water Systems - MCEARD

    EPA Science Inventory

    Integrated sustainability assessment is part of a new paradigm for urban water decision making. Multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) is an integrative framework used in urban water sustainability assessment, which has a particular focus on utilising stakeholder participation. Here ...

  7. Hegemonic Masculinity, HIV/AIDS Risk Perception, and Sexual Behavior Change Among Young People in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Ganle, John Kuumuori

    2016-05-01

    Among the youth in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, a paradoxical mix of adequate knowledge of HIV/AIDS and high-risk behavior characterizes their daily lives. Based on original qualitative research in Ghana, I explore in this article the ways in which the social construction of masculinity influences youth's responses to behavior change HIV/AIDS prevention interventions. Findings show that although awareness of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the risks of infection is very high among the youth, a combination of hegemonic masculinity and perceptions of personal invulnerability acts to undermine the processes of young people's HIV/AIDS risk construction and appropriate behavioral change. I argue that if HIV/AIDS prevention is to be effective and sustained, school- and community-based initiatives should be developed to provide supportive social spaces in which the construction of masculinity, the identity of young men and women as gendered persons, and perceptions of their vulnerability to HIV/AIDS infection are challenged. PMID:25721715

  8. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  9. Practical Education through Risk Assessment Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokai, Akihiro

    Although, the staff for assessing environmental risk of chemicals is required in individual units of industrial sectors, there are very few systemic academic curriculums on risk assessment of chemicals in Japanese institutions of higher education. In order to meet such a social needs, Osaka University opened a limited-period program of environmental risk management for both students and working people in 2005. The author describes the contribution of his experience in offering a course on environmental risk assessment of chemicals as a part of the program. The course afforded students a kind of practical training for risk assessment. This paper also involves what to do for strengthening the education activity of risk assessment.

  10. Creating an advance-care-planning decision aid for high-risk surgery: a qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background High-risk surgery patients may lose decision-making capacity as a result of surgical complications. Advance care planning prior to surgery may be beneficial, but remains controversial and is hindered by a lack of appropriate decision aids. This study sought to examine stakeholders’ views on the appropriateness of using decision aids, in general, to support advance care planning among high-risk surgery populations and the design of such a decision aid. Methods Key informants were recruited through purposive and snowball sampling. Semi-structured interviews were conducted by phone until data collected reached theoretical saturation. Key informants were asked to discuss their thoughts about advance care planning and interventions to support advance care planning, particularly for this population. Researchers took de-identified notes that were analyzed for emerging concordant, discordant, and recurrent themes using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Results Key informants described the importance of initiating advance care planning preoperatively, despite potential challenges present in surgical settings. In general, decision aids were viewed as an appropriate approach to support advance care planning for this population. A recipe emerged from the data that outlines tools, ingredients, and tips for success that are needed to design an advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgical settings. Conclusions Stakeholders supported incorporating advance care planning in high-risk surgical settings and endorsed the appropriateness of using decision aids to do so. Findings will inform the next stages of developing the first advance care planning decision aid for high-risk surgery patients. PMID:25067908

  11. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  12. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  13. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  15. Legal risks and responsibilities of physicians in the AIDS epidemic.

    PubMed

    Annas, George J

    1988-01-01

    Existing law in the United States applicable to physicians' obligations to treat AIDS and HIV-infected patients is summarized and ways are identified to strengthen current law so that these obligations are more sharply defined. Courts have affirmed an obligation to treat both in limited emergency situations and within the consensual physician patient relationship. Also, physicians may assume contractual obligations to entire groups of patients under employment contracts with hospitals and prepaid health plans and by agreements for Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement. Annas describes antidiscimination statutes as limited in scope and suggests ways to strengthen them. He maintains that physicians have special legal obligations because society has granted them special privileges, and he supports delineation and enforcement of ethical obligations by organized medicine, state licensing boards, hospitals, and medical schools. PMID:11650068

  16. Combination of sequential chemical extraction and modelling of dam-break wave propagation to aid assessment of risk related to the possible collapse of a roasted sulphide tailings dam.

    PubMed

    Pérez-López, Rafael; Sáez, Reinaldo; Alvarez-Valero, Antonio M; Miguel Nieto, José; Pace, Gaetano

    2009-10-15

    The Sotiel-Coronada abandoned mining district (Iberian Pyrite Belt) produced complex massive sulphide ores which were processed by flotation to obtain Cu, Zn and Pb concentrates. The crude pyrite refuses were roasted for sulphuric acid production in a plant located close to the flotation site, and waste stored in a tailing dam. The present study was focused on the measurements of flow properties, chemical characterization and mineralogical determination of the roasted pyrite refuses with the aim of assessing the potential environmental impact in case of dam collapse. Chemical studies include the determination of the total contaminant content and information about their bio-availability or mobility using sequential extraction techniques. In the hypothetical case of the tailing dam breaking up and waste spilling (ca. 4.54Mt), a high density mud flow would flood the Odiel river valley and reach both Estuary of Huelva (Biosphere Reserve by UNESCO, 1983) and Atlantic Ocean in matter of a couple of days, as it was predicted by numerical simulations of dam-break waves propagation through the river valley based on quasi-2D Saint-Venant equations. The total amount of mobile pollutants that would be released into the surrounding environment is approximately of 7.1.10(4)t of S, 1.6.10(4)t of Fe, 1.4.10(4)t of As, 1.2.10(4)t of Zn, 1.0.10(4)t of Pb, 7.4.10(3)t of Mn, 2.2.10(3)t of Cu, 1.5.10(2)t of Co, 36t of Cd and 17t of Ni. Around 90-100% of S, Zn, Co and Ni, 60-70% of Mn and Cd, 30-40% of Fe and Cu, and 5% of As and Pb of the mobile fraction would be easily in the most labile fraction (water-soluble pollutants), and therefore, the most dangerous and bio-available for the environment. This gives an idea of the extreme potential risk of roasted pyrite ashes to the environment, until now little-described in the scientific literature. PMID:19683794

  17. Environmental risk assessment for start-up of a new consolidated maintenance facility

    SciTech Connect

    Heubach, J.G.; Wise, J.A.

    1992-10-01

    This paper summarizes a case study of a risk assessment for a consolidated maintenance facility (CMF). An interdisciplinary team was formed to identify and evaluate showstopper'' risks which could delay or prevent ontime, safe, and economical operation of a CMF and to recommend ways to mitigate the risks. The risk assessment was constrained by time, information, incomplete plans and facilities, and a concomitant major transition in manufacturing process, organization, and technology. Working within these constraints, the team integrated convergent findings into estimates of high, medium, and low risks based on the subjective likelihood of occurrence and predicted consequences of potential hazard events. The team also made risk-reduction recommendations for facility detail design and production start-up. The findings and recommendations reported in this study focus on risks related to environmental design and workstation ergonomics. Findings from the risk assessment effort should aid other constrained risk assessments and applied research on similar facilities.

  18. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on compl...

  19. Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the ECOTOXicology Database (ECOTOX; Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  1. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  2. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  3. NEUROTOXICOLOGY IN REGULATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper is to be published in the proceedings of a conference on learning disabilities. It summarizes the need for neurotoxicology data in risk assessment, the regulatory agencies which have authority to require toxicity testing, the overall process of risk assessment and the p...

  4. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  5. DRAFT PROPOSED GUIDELINES FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document is part of a continuing, long-term effort to develop Agency-wide ecological risk assessment guidelines for EPA. The goal of the guidelines is to improve the quality and consistency of the Agency's ecological risk assessments. These guidelines move beyond the Agency'...

  6. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process. PMID:12298344

  7. Approximate risk assessment prioritizes remedial decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Bergmann, E.P. )

    1993-08-01

    Approximate risk assessment (ARA) is a management tool that prioritizes cost/benefit options for risk reduction decisions. Management needs a method that quantifies how much control is satisfactory for each level of risk reduction. Two risk matrices develop a scheme that estimates the necessary control a unit should implement with its present probability and severity of consequences/disaster. A second risk assessment matrix attaches a dollar value to each failure possibility at various severities. Now HPI operators can see the cost and benefit for each control step contemplated and justify returns based on removing the likelihood of the disaster.

  8. Dynamic risk simulation to assess risk along roads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voumard, Jérémie; Caspar, Olivier; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2013-04-01

    Risk generated through natural hazards on roads is usually calculated with an equation which integrates various parameters of hazard and traffic. These are static variables as hazard frequency and number of vehicles crossing the dangerous section. This traditional methodology cannot take into account the dynamic variations of traffic and interactions between vehicles such as speeds modifications due to the section sinuosity, slowdowns resulting saturated traffic or creation of vehicles columns in front of traffic lights. The influence of traffic dynamics on the risk estimation is not addressed with the standard methodologies. Here we show, with the help of a dynamic traffic simulator specially developed for this project, that the variations of traffic greatly influence the risk results. Several sections of an alpine road in Switzerland were analyzed with the method of dynamic risk and compared with the results of the conventional method of risk calculation. It was possible to demonstrate that risk significantly increases on sinuous sections with the decreasing of vehicles speed. It has been highlighted that well positioned traffic lights, outside the risk area, can prevent a risk increase during a construction site, while a column of vehicles located within the danger zone greatly increases the risk. These results demonstrate the importance to consider the traffic in a dynamic way to assess risk to the closest field reality. Thus, recommendations to reduce risk on the roads can be given using a dynamic traffic simulator, modeling interactions between vehicles. Eventually, dynamic risk assessment can also be integrated into existing methodologies that consider only static parameters.

  9. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  10. Environmental radiation: risk benchmarks or benchmarking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bates, Matthew E; Valverde, L James; Vogel, John T; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    In the wake of the compound March 2011 nuclear disaster at the Fukushima I nuclear power plant in Japan, international public dialogue has repeatedly turned to questions of the accuracy of current risk assessment processes to assess nuclear risks and the adequacy of existing regulatory risk thresholds to protect us from nuclear harm. We confront these issues with an emphasis on learning from the incident in Japan for future US policy discussions. Without delving into a broader philosophical discussion of the general social acceptance of the risk, the relative adequacy of existing US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk thresholds is assessed in comparison with the risk thresholds of federal agencies not currently under heightened public scrutiny. Existing NRC thresholds are found to be among the most conservative in the comparison, suggesting that the agency's current regulatory framework is consistent with larger societal ideals. In turning to risk assessment methodologies, the disaster in Japan does indicate room for growth. Emerging lessons seem to indicate an opportunity to enhance resilience through systemic levels of risk aggregation. Specifically, we believe bringing systemic reasoning to the risk management process requires a framework that (i) is able to represent risk-based knowledge and information about a panoply of threats; (ii) provides a systemic understanding (and representation) of the natural and built environments of interest and their dependencies; and (iii) allows for the rational and coherent valuation of a range of outcome variables of interest, both tangible and intangible. Rather than revisiting the thresholds themselves, we see the goal of future nuclear risk management in adopting and implementing risk assessment techniques that systemically evaluate large-scale socio-technical systems with a view toward enhancing resilience and minimizing the potential for surprise. PMID:21608107

  11. The value of haematological screening for AIDS in an at risk population.

    PubMed Central

    Weber, J N; Walker, D; Engelkins, H; Bain, B; Harris, J R

    1985-01-01

    The haematological variables measured by automated full blood count in matched homosexual and heterosexual men attending a clinic for sexually transmitted diseases (STD) were compared with those of normal controls and patients infected with the human T lymphotropic virus type III (HTLV-III). Homosexual and heterosexual men were statistically identical for all variables, but both differed noticeably from patients with clinical diagnoses of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) or AIDS related disease. A full blood count as a screening test for AIDS is only interpretable in the context of clinical assessment. PMID:2995238

  12. Essentiality, toxicity, and uncertainty in the risk assessment of manganese.

    PubMed

    Boyes, William K

    2010-01-01

    Risk assessments of manganese by inhalation or oral routes of exposure typically acknowledge the duality of manganese as an essential element at low doses and a toxic metal at high doses. Previously, however, risk assessors were unable to describe manganese pharmacokinetics quantitatively across dose levels and routes of exposure, to account for mass balance, and to incorporate this information into a quantitative risk assessment. In addition, the prior risk assessment of inhaled manganese conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identified a number of specific factors that contributed to uncertainty in the risk assessment. In response to a petition regarding the use of a fuel additive containing manganese, methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl (MMT), the U.S. EPA developed a test rule under the U.S. Clean Air Act that required, among other things, the generation of pharmacokinetic information. This information was intended not only to aid in the design of health outcome studies, but also to help address uncertainties in the risk assessment of manganese. To date, the work conducted in response to the test rule has yielded substantial pharmacokinetic data. This information will enable the generation of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models capable of making quantitative predictions of tissue manganese concentrations following inhalation and oral exposure, across dose levels, and accounting for factors such as duration of exposure, different species of manganese, and changes of age, gender, and reproductive status. The work accomplished in response to the test rule, in combination with other scientific evidence, will enable future manganese risk assessments to consider tissue dosimetry more comprehensively than was previously possible. PMID:20077286

  13. Patterns of HIV/AIDS, STI, Substance Abuse and Hepatitis Risk among Selected Samples of Latino and African-American Youth in Washington, DC

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edberg, Mark C.; Collins, Elizabeth; Harris, Meredith; McLendon, Hedda; Santucci, Patricia

    2009-01-01

    In order to address evolving risk factors among youth in Washington, DC (District of Columbia), with respect to HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), substance abuse, and hepatitis, a targeted, community-needs assessment was conducted through a partnership between the Department of Prevention and Community Health at George Washington…

  14. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  15. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments - A Review.

    PubMed

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-03-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  16. Competing Risks or Different Pathways? An Event History Analysis of the Relationship between Financial Aid and Educational Outcomes for Latinos

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gross, Jacob P. K.; Torres, Vasti

    2010-01-01

    Using a competing risks event history model this study explores the effects of differentiated forms of financial aid on the postsecondary enrollment patterns of Latino college students in Indiana. Much of the prior research on financial aid has employed cross-sectional methods, which assume that the effects of aid do not vary across time. This…

  17. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  18. Tools Available to Communities for Conducting Cumulative Exposure and Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper summarizes and assesses over 70 tools that could aid with gathering information and taking action on environmental issues related to community-based cumulative risk assessments (CBCRA). Information on tool use, development and research needs, was gathered from websites...

  19. THE USE OF STEM CELLS FOR TOXICOLOGY STUDIES AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In general terms, toxicology studies are used in support of risk assessments of adverse health outcomes as a result of exposures to chemical and physical agents. In particular, toxicological data are used to provide information that aids in the assessment of disease outcomes at e...

  20. Suicide risk assessment in high-risk adolescents.

    PubMed

    Gray, Barbara P; Dihigo, Sharolyn K

    2015-09-13

    A significant number of adolescents experience depression and other mental health disorders that may put them at risk for suicide. Mental health assessment is an important component of primary healthcare. Depression and suicide risk screening can assist healthcare providers in preventing suicides. PMID:26262455

  1. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

  2. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  3. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B.; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. PMID:25804424

  4. The Concept of Risk Assessment and Being Unfit for Surgery.

    PubMed

    Kolh, P; De Hert, S; De Rango, P

    2016-06-01

    The concept of risk assessment and the identification of surgical unfitness for vascular intervention is a particularly controversial issue today as the minimally invasive surgical population has increased not only in volume but also in complexity (comorbidity profile) and age, requiring an improved pre-operative selection and definition of high risk. A practical step by step (three steps, two points for each) approach for surgical risk assessment is suggested in this review. As a general rule, the identification of a "high risk" patient for vascular surgery follows a step by step process where the risk is clearly defined, quantified (when too "high"?), and thereby stratified based on the procedure, the patient, and the hospital, with the aid of predictive risk scores. However, there is no standardized, updated, and objective definition for surgical unfitness today. The major gap in the current literature on the definition of high risk in vascular patients explains the lack of sound validated predictive systems and limited generalizability of risk scores in vascular surgery. In addition, the concept of fitness is an evolving tool and many traditional high risk criteria and definitions are no longer valid. Given the preventive purpose of most vascular procedures performed in elderly asymptomatic patients, the decision to pursue or withhold surgery requires realistic estimates not only regarding individual peri-operative mortality, but also life expectancy, healthcare priorities, and the patient's primary goals, such as prolongation of life versus maintenance of independence or symptom relief. The overall "frailty" and geriatric risk burden, such as cognitive, functional, social, and nutritional status, are variables that should be also included in the analyses for stratification of surgical risk in elderly vascular patients. PMID:27053098

  5. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  6. Managing Risk and Experiencing Danger: Tensions between Government AIDS Education Policy and Young Women's Sexuality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holland, Janet; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Government AIDS education programs in Britain have focused on nonheterosexual behavior. Protection of population depends on changes in high-risk sexual practices among heterosexuals. The part played by young women has received little attention. Reviews data from a survey of young women's sexual beliefs and behavior and suggests that appropriate…

  7. Prospects for Bilateral Aid to Basic Education Put Students at Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abetti, Pauline; Beardmore, Sarah; Tapp, Charles, Winthrop, Rebecca

    2011-01-01

    The future of bilateral aid to basic education is at risk, placing the educational opportunities of many of the world's poorest girls and boys on the line. Some donor governments are reducing overall bilateral assistance, others are phasing out long-standing partnerships with particular developing countries and several are abandoning education as…

  8. Sociocultural Determinants of HIV/AIDS Risk and Service Use among Immigrant Latinos in North Carolina

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowden, W. Patrick; Rhodes, Scott D.; Wilkin, Aimee M.; Jolly, Christine P.

    2006-01-01

    Latinos in the United States have been disproportionately affected by the intersecting epidemics of HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. Using a community-based participatory research approach to problem identification, the objective of this study is to explore sociocultural determinants of HIV/AIDS risk and service use among immigrant Latino…

  9. Evaluating social outcomes of HIV/AIDS interventions: a critical assessment of contemporary indicator frameworks

    PubMed Central

    Mannell, Jenevieve; Cornish, Flora; Russell, Jill

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Contemporary HIV-related theory and policy emphasize the importance of addressing the social drivers of HIV risk and vulnerability for a long-term response. Consequently, increasing attention is being given to social and structural interventions, and to social outcomes of HIV interventions. Appropriate indicators for social outcomes are needed in order to institutionalize the commitment to addressing social outcomes. This paper critically assesses the current state of social indicators within international HIV/AIDS monitoring and evaluation frameworks. Methods We analyzed the indicator frameworks of six international organizations involved in efforts to improve and synchronize the monitoring and evaluation of the HIV/AIDS response. Our analysis classifies the 328 unique indicators according to what they measure and assesses the degree to which they offer comprehensive measurement across three dimensions: domains of the social context, levels of change and organizational capacity. Results and discussion The majority of indicators focus on individual-level (clinical and behavioural) interventions and outcomes, neglecting structural interventions, community interventions and social outcomes (e.g. stigma reduction; community capacity building; policy-maker sensitization). The main tool used to address social aspects of HIV/AIDS is the disaggregation of data by social group. This raises three main limitations. Indicator frameworks do not provide comprehensive coverage of the diverse social drivers of the epidemic, particularly neglecting criminalization, stigma, discrimination and gender norms. There is a dearth of indicators for evaluating the social impacts of HIV interventions. Indicators of organizational capacity focus on capacity to effectively deliver and manage clinical services, neglecting capacity to respond appropriately and sustainably to complex social contexts. Conclusions Current indicator frameworks cannot adequately assess the social

  10. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  11. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR COKE OVENS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-m...

  12. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Butler, J.P.

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often by as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per=kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessment for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  13. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Biwer, B M; Butler, J P

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations. PMID:10765454

  14. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    PubMed

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. PMID:23982989

  15. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do. PMID:20846169

  16. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  17. AIDS: risk behaviors among rural Mexican women married to migrant workers in the United States.

    PubMed

    Salgado de Snyder, V N; Díaz Pérez, M; Maldonado, M

    1996-04-01

    International migration between Mexico and the United States has been acknowledged as a phenomenon that may contribute to the spread of AIDS in rural Mexico. The purpose of this study is to identify the information held by the participants regarding AIDS and to describe selected high-risk behaviors for AIDS transmission among a representative sample of rural women living in Mexico who are married to immigrant temporary workers to the United States. The women who participated in the study were married, of reproductive age, and had active sex lives with their spouses. Results revealed that most of the women interviewed had at least some knowledge about AIDS. Although some misconceptions were evident, most of the information they had was accurate. About one-third of the women felt at risk for AIDS, mostly because they doubted their husbands' fidelity, or because in the last five years they had donated blood, received a blood transfusion, or received an intramuscular or intravenous injection. The results of the study are discussed within the sociocultural context that surrounds the lives of the women interviewed. PMID:8727653

  18. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  19. Evaluation and Assessment of a Biomechanics Computer-Aided Instruction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington, N.; Parnianpour, M.; Fraser, J. M.

    1999-01-01

    Describes the Biomechanics Tutorial, a computer-aided instructional tool that was developed at Ohio State University to expedite the transition from lecture to application for undergraduate students. Reports evaluation results that used statistical analyses and student questionnaires to show improved performance on posttests as well as positive…

  20. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  1. Gist Representations and Communication of Risks about HIV-AIDS: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach.

    PubMed

    Wilhelms, Evan A; Reyna, Valerie F; Brust-Renck, Priscila; Weldon, Rebecca B; Corbin, Jonathan C

    2015-01-01

    As predicted by fuzzy-trace theory, people with a range of training—from untrained adolescents to expert physicians—are susceptible to biases and errors in judgment and perception of HIV-AIDS risk. To explain why this occurs, we introduce fuzzy-trace theory as a theoretical perspective that describes these errors to be a function of knowledge deficits, gist-based representation of risk categories, retrieval failure for risk knowledge, and processing interference (e.g., base-rate neglect) in combining risk estimates. These principles explain how people perceive HIV-AIDS risk and why they take risks with potentially lethal outcomes, often despite rote (verbatim) knowledge.For example, people inappropriately generalize the wrong gist about condoms' effectiveness against fluid-borne disease to diseases that are transferred skin-to-skin, such as HPV. We also describe how variation in processing in adolescence (e.g., more verbatim processing compared to adults) can be a route to risk-taking that explains key aspects of why many people are infected with HIV in youth, as well as how interventions that emphasize bottom-line gists communicate risks effectively. PMID:26149161

  2. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  3. HIV/AIDS knowledge and occupational risk in primary care health workers from Chile

    PubMed Central

    Valdés, Baltica Cabieses; Lagunas, Lilian Ferrer; Villarroel, Luis Antonio; Acosta, Rosina Cianelli; Miner, Sarah; Silva, Margarita Bernales

    2014-01-01

    Objective To explore the relationship between knowledge level and occupational risk exposure to HIV/AIDS in primary care health workers. Methodology Analytical cross-sectional study. 720 health workers from Santiago answered a survey about HIV/AIDS that included: knowledge level (appropriate, inappropriate), occupational risk (with or without risk), and control variables (age, gender, health center, education and marital status). Descriptive and association analysis were performed. Odds Ratio (OR) was estimated through simple and multiple regressions logistics. Results 58.7% of the participants reported HIV occupational risk. 63.8% of the participants from the exposed group reported an appropriate level of knowledge, versus 36.1% of the non-exposed group (Adjusted OR of 3.1, IC95%OR: 2.0-4.8, p<0.0001). Technicians and cleaning staff reported a lower proportion of appropriate level of knowledge compared to the employees with college education (p<0.0001). Conclusion The level of HIV/AID occupational risk is directly associated with the level of knowledge of the disease. PMID:25284913

  4. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  5. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  6. Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans and environmental species are rarely exposed to single chemicals. These chemicals typically affect multiple tissues through multiple modes of action, which may depend on the dose. Mixtures risk assessment may employ dose response information from the mixture of interest,...

  7. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  8. GUIDELINES FOR CARCINOGEN RISK ASSESSMENT (1986)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 1983, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS)/National Research Council (NRC) published its report entitled Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process. In that report, the NRC recommended that Federal regulatory agencies establish "inference guidelines" to ...

  9. TOXICOLOGICAL BASIS FOR DRINKING WATER RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is charged with protecting human health and the environment. Environmental protection decisions are often guided by risk assessments that are used to develop regulatory policy and other related guidance. Historically, in environmen...

  10. Biosecurity Risk Assessment Methodology (BioRAM) v. 2.0

    2009-06-08

    Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction Dept (SNL/IBTR) has an ongoing mission to enhance biosecurity assessment methodologies, tools, and guise. These will aid labs seeking to implement biosecurity as advocated in the recently released WHO's Biorisk Management: Lab Biosecurity Guidance. BioRAM 2.0 is the software tool developed initially using the SNL LDRD process and designed to complement the "Laboratory Biosecurity Risk Handbook" written by Ren Salerno and Jennifer Gaudioso defining biosecurity risk assessment methodologies.

  11. Decreasing Incidence of Gonorrhea in Homosexually Active Men—Minimal Effect on Risk of AIDS

    PubMed Central

    Handsfield, H. Hunter

    1985-01-01

    The incidence of gonorrhea in homosexually active men in Seattle-King County and in Washington State as a whole decreased by 57% from 1982 to 1984, compared with a 20% decrease among heterosexual men and women. This probably reflects behavioral changes of homosexual men in response to the epidemic of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Nevertheless, changes in sexual behavior that greatly reduce the incidence of gonorrhea do not necessarily result in a similar reduction in the risk of exposure to the virus that causes AIDS. PMID:4090477

  12. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  13. MULTIMEDIA HUMAN EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposures and health risk comparisons from different sites may be used for allocating limited resources available for remedial action. It is important that comparisons between different sites use similar levels of site-specific data and/or screening level data. Risk assessment c...

  14. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  15. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  16. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  17. PROPOSED GUIDELINES FOR CARCINOGEN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment were published in the Federal Register on April 23, 1996 (Federal Register: 17960-18011) for a 120-day public review and comment period. The Proposed Guidelines are a revision of EPA's 1986 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Ass...

  18. 2009 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 27-30, 2009 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  19. NANOTECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT CASE STUDY WORKSHOPS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Nanotechnology is expected to present both benefits and risks to human health and the environment. The assessment of risks related to nanotechnology requires information on the potential for exposure to, and adverse effects of, nanomaterials and their by-products. To help ensure...

  20. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor destroyed by biological a...

  1. FRAMEWORK FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT (REVIEW DRAFT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several reports have highlighted the importance of understanding the accumulation of risks from multiple environmental stressors. These include the National Research Council's 1994 report Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment and the 1997 report by the Presidential/Cong...

  2. 2008 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2008 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 14 - 17, 2008 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk ...

  3. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    PubMed

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  4. Training for suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M; Berman, Alan L

    2014-10-01

    Suicide and suicidal behaviors are highly associated with psychiatric disorders. Psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment (SRA) is a core competency requirement, many lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation (SRF) sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. An SRA gathers data about observable and reported symptoms, behaviors, and historical factors that are associated with suicide risk and protection, ascertained by way of psychiatric interview; collateral information from family, friends, and medical records; and psychometric scales and/or screening tools. Based on data collected via an SRA, an SRF is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment plans, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the need for a revised training model in SRA and SRF, and proposes a model of training that incorporates the acquisition of skills, relying heavily on case application exercises. PMID:25059537

  5. [Individual risk assessment of caries].

    PubMed

    Schaeken, M J; Mikx, F H

    1992-06-01

    The estimation of individual caries risk factors and the related preventive treatment in the dental practice are discussed. Salivary counts of mutans streptococci and lactobacilli reflect the bacteriological attack (mutans streptococci) and sugar intake (lactobacilli). Caries resistance can be estimated by measurement of the salivary secretion rate and buffer capacity. Treatment of high caries risk patients should be directed against etiological factors. Salivary flow rates and buffer capacity can be stimulated by daily (sugar-free) gum-chewing. For the use of fluoridated toothpaste and sugar intake the dentist is dependent upon the cooperation of the patient. The bacteriological factor in the caries process can be suppressed by application of chlorhexidine varnish. PMID:11820133

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  7. APPLICATION OF FETAX IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A workshop sponsored by NIEHS in 2000 evaluated the use of FETAX as a screening method for identifying the developmental toxicity potenial of chemical and environmental samples. Workshop recommendations pertinent to environmental risk assessment suggested that additional comparat...

  8. At the Intersection of HIV/AIDS and Cancer: A Qualitative Needs Assessment of Community-Based HIV/AIDS Service Organizations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burkhalter, Jack E.; Cahill, Sean; Shuk, Elyse; Guidry, John; Corner, Geoffrey; Berk, Alexandra; Candelario, Norman; Kornegay, Mark; Lubetkin, Erica I.

    2013-01-01

    Due to advances in treatment, persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) are living longer, but with aging, immune deficits, and lifestyle factors, they are at increased risk for cancer. This challenges community-based AIDS service organizations (ASOs) to address the growing cancer needs of…

  9. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  10. Assessing Knowledge of, and Attitudes to, HIV/AIDS among University Students in the United Arab Emirates

    PubMed Central

    Haroun, Dalia; El Saleh, Ola; Wood, Lesley; Mechli, Rola; Al Marzouqi, Nada; Anouti, Samir

    2016-01-01

    Background The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is among the top two regions in the world with the fastest growing HIV epidemic. In this context, risks and vulnerability are high as the epidemic is on the rise with evidence indicating significantly increasing HIV prevalence, new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths. Objective The aim of the survey was to assess HIV/AIDS knowledge and attitudes related to HIV/AIDS among a wide group of university students in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Methods In a cross-sectional survey, a total sample of 2,294 students (406 male; 1,888 female) from four universities in three different Emirates in the UAE were approached to take part in the study. Students self-completed a questionnaire that was designed to measure their knowledge and attitudes to HIV/AIDS. Results The overall average knowledge score of HIV.AIDS was 61%. Non-Emirati and postgraduates demonstrated higher levels of knowledge compared to Emirati and undergraduate students respectively. No significant differences between males and females; and marital status were found. Eighty-five percent of students expressed negative attitudes towards people living with HIV, with Emirati and single students significantly holding more negative attitudes compared to non-Emiratis and those that are married respectively. Conclusions The findings provide strong evidence that there is a need to advocate for appropriate National HIV/AIDS awareness raising campaigns in universities to reduce the gaps in knowledge and decrease stigmatizing attitudes towards people living with HIV/AIDS. PMID:26913902

  11. Use of System Safety Risk Assessments for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the System Safety approach used to assess risk for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Previous to the first RSRM flight in the fall of 1988, all systems were analyzed extensively to assure that hazards were identified, assessed and that the baseline risk was understood and appropriately communicated. Since the original RSRM baseline was established, Thiokol and NASA have implemented a number of initiatives that have further improved the RSRM. The robust design, completion of rigorous testing and flight success of the RSRM has resulted in a wise reluctance to make changes. One of the primary assessments required to accompany the documentation of each proposed change and aid in the decision making process is a risk assessment. Documentation supporting proposed changes, including the risk assessments from System Safety, are reviewed and assessed by Thiokol and NASA technical management. After thorough consideration, approved changes are implemented adding improvements to and reducing risk of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

  12. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  13. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  14. Microfinance and HIV/AIDS Prevention: Assessing its Promise and Limitations

    PubMed Central

    Dworkin, Shari L.; Blankenship, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Researchers increasingly argue that poverty and gender inequality exacerbate the spread of HIV/AIDS and that economic empowerment can therefore assist in the prevention and mitigation of the disease, particularly for women. This paper critically evaluates such claims. First, we examine the promises and limits of integrated HIV/AIDS prevention and microfinance programs by examining the available evidence base. We then propose future research agendas and next steps that may help to clear current ambiguities about the potential for economic programs to contribute to HIV/AIDS risk reduction efforts. PMID:19294500

  15. Poor Initial CD4+ Recovery With Antiretroviral Therapy Prolongs Immune Depletion and Increases Risk for AIDS and Non-AIDS Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Jason V.; Peng, Grace; Rapkin, Joshua; Krason, David; Reilly, Cavan; Cavert, Winston P.; Abrams, Donald I.; MacArthur, Rodger D.; Henry, Keith; Neaton, James D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Low CD4+ increases risk for both AIDS- and non–AIDS-related morbidity and mortality. The magnitude of CD4+ recovery early after initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important in the ultimate duration of immune depletion. Methods We examined CD4+ recovery among 850 participants in the Community Program for Clinical Research on AIDS Flexible Initial Retrovirus Suppressive Therapies study with virologic suppression (ie, achieved an HIV RNA level <400 copies/mL) with 8 months of initial ART and determined subsequent risk for AIDS, non-AIDS diseases (non-AIDS cancers and cardiovascular, end-stage renal, and liver diseases), or death using Cox regression during a median 5-year follow-up. Results Mean pretreatment CD4+ was 221 cells/μL; 18% (n = 149) had a poor CD4+ recovery (<50 cells/μL) after 8 months of effective ART, resulting in lower CD4+ over 5 years. Older age (hazard ratio 1.34/10 yrs, P = 0.003) and lower screening HIV RNA (hazard ratio 0.65 per log10 copies/mL higher, P = 0.001), but not screening CD4+, were associated with a poor CD4+ recovery. After 8 months of effective ART, 30 patients experienced the composite outcome of AIDS, non-AIDS, or death among participants with a poor CD4+ recovery (rate = 5.8/100 person-years) and 74 patients among those with an adequate recovery (≥50 cells/μL; rate = 2.7/100 personyears) (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.24, P < 0.001). The risk of this composite outcome associated with a poor CD4+ recovery declined when ART was initiated at higher CD4+ counts (P < 0.01). Conclusions Impaired immune recovery, despite effective ART, results in longer time spent at low CD4+, thereby increasing risk for a broad category of HIV-related morbidity and mortality conditions. PMID:18645520

  16. Risk factors for HIV infection in male sexual contacts of men with AIDS or an AIDS-related condition.

    PubMed

    Coates, R A; Calzavara, L M; Read, S E; Fanning, M M; Shepherd, F A; Klein, M H; Johnson, J K; Soskolne, C L

    1988-10-01

    A total of 246 healthy male sexual contacts of men with either acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or an AIDS-related condition were recruited into a prospective study in Toronto, Canada between July 1984 and July 1985. At induction, data were collected on the sexual relationship between the contact and his primary case, sexual activities with other men, history of sexually transmitted diseases and other diseases, and use of recreational drugs. At recruitment, 144 sexual contacts had antibodies to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); 102 of the contacts were seronegative at induction and at three months following recruitment. No association between HIV seropositivity and total number of sexual partners could be demonstrated. In univariate and multivariate analyses, receptive and insertive anal intercourse with the primary cases, and activities which either indicated or potentially caused anorectal mucosal injury (rectal douching, perianal bleeding, receipt of objects in ano, and receptive fisting) were strongly associated with HIV seropositivity. In the final multiple logistic regression model, two significant interaction effects were observed: the interaction between receptive anal intercourse and insertive anal intercourse and that between receptive anal intercourse and the anorectal mucosal injury index. These two interaction terms had negative regression coefficients which suggested that change in one sexual activity would not decrementally reduce risk of HIV infection without a comparable modification in the other activity. No association could be demonstrated between oral-genital and oral-anal sexual contact and odds ratios for these sexual activities declined to levels below 1.0 when adjusted for frequency of receptive anal intercourse. PMID:3421239

  17. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  18. Seismic risk assessment for Yerevan city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durgaryan, Raffi

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to conduct a seismic risk assessment for the territory of Yerevan city with the aim to evaluate potential earthquake hazard and associated risk and losses. This study enables the assessment of seismic risk in the city and evaluates the geographical distribution of potential human and building losses due to proposed earthquake scenarios. The results of this study are presented in form of various mapped seismic hazard parameters such as peak ground acceleration, spectral acceleration, as well as assessed parameters for expected life, building and lifeline losses. The study has been the first of its kind for Yerevan city that will serve as the first step in building a risk analysis tools to be used by governmental entities and other organizations for planning future disaster response efforts.

  19. Risk assessment as a framework for decisions.

    SciTech Connect

    Rechard, Robert Paul; McKenna, Sean Andrew; Borns, David James

    2010-12-01

    The risk assessment approach has been applied to support numerous radioactive waste management activities over the last 30 years. A risk assessment methodology provides a solid and readily adaptable framework for evaluating the risks of CO2 sequestration in geologic formations to prioritize research, data collection, and monitoring schemes. This paper reviews the tasks of a risk assessment, and provides a few examples related to each task. This paper then describes an application of sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters to reduce the uncertainty in the performance of a geologic repository for radioactive waste repository, which because of importance of the geologic barrier, is similar to CO2 sequestration. The paper ends with a simple stochastic analysis of idealized CO2 sequestration site with a leaking abandoned well and a set of monitoring wells in an aquifer above the CO2 sequestration unit in order to evaluate the efficacy of monitoring wells to detect adverse leakage.

  20. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  1. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  2. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  3. Cardiac risk assessment: decreasing postoperative complications.

    PubMed

    Thanavaro, Joanne L

    2015-02-01

    Preoperative cardiac assessment helps identify patients undergoing noncardiac surgery who are at risk for significant postoperative cardiac complications and those who may benefit from additional preoperative evaluation and perioperative care. Advanced practice nurses can identify surgery- and patient-related risks by conducting a thorough health history and physical examination. Multiple risk indices and evidence-based guidelines are available to inform health care providers regarding patient evaluation and strategies to reduce postoperative cardiac risk. In general, preoperative tests are recommended only if the findings will influence medical therapy or perioperative monitoring or will require postponement of surgery until a cardiac condition can be corrected or stabilized. Medication management is a crucial component of the preoperative assessment; providers may need to initiate the use of beta-blockers and make decisions regarding continuing or withholding antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy. Preoperative cardiac risk stratification, medication reconciliation, and device management are essential for providing safe care for patients. PMID:25645037

  4. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-11-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  5. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  6. Ecological risk assessment for Mather Air Force Base, California: Phase 1, screening assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Meyers-Schoene, L.; Fischer, N.T.; Rabe, J.J.

    1994-12-31

    Mather Air Force Base (AFB) is among the numerous facilities scheduled for closure under the US Air Force (USAF) Installation Restoration Program (IRP). A component of the Mather AFB IRP is to prepare risk assessments for each of the chemically contaminated sites. Because no previous ecological risk related studies have been conducted on Mather AFB, the authors proposed a phased approach to assessing ecological risks at the base. Phase 1 consisted of baseline ecological surveys that collected data over a 12-month period. In addition, benchmark screening criteria were used in conjunction with modeling results that utilized measured concentrations of chemical analytes in abiotic samples. Phase 2 may consist of the collection of more site-specific data and toxicity testing, if warranted by the Phase 1 screening analysis. This approach was in agreement with the USAF`s ecological risk assessment guidance and met the approval of the Air Force and USEPA Region 9. The authors found the use of established and derived screening values to effectively aid in the focusing of the ecological risk assessment on those chemicals most likely to be hazardous to ecological receptors at the base. Disadvantages in the use of screening values include the uncertainties associated with the conservative assumptions inherent in the derivation of benchmark values and the difficulty in extrapolating from laboratory determined benchmark values to impacts in the field.

  7. A qualitative assessment of long distance truck drivers' vulnerability to HIV/AIDS in Itajaí, southern Brazil.

    PubMed

    Malta, M; Bastos, F I; Pereira-Koller, E M; Cunha, M D; Marques, C; Strathdee, S A

    2006-07-01

    Itajaí is the largest port in southern Brazil and has one of the nation's highest AIDS incidence rates. Since over 400 truck drivers enter the city daily, they may play a key role in the HIV/AIDS epidemic due to transactions with commercial sex workers (CSWs) and/or substance use. We conducted a rapid assessment to establish the context of HIV vulnerability among truckers and CSWs in Itajaí. Forty three in-depth interviews and eight focus groups were conducted with truckers and CSWs. Two truck-driving routes involving brothels, meeting places and drug-use locations were mapped and field observations were collected. Tapes and field notes were transcribed and analyzed for emerging themes. Truck drivers typically had unprotected sex with several partners, including CSWs and truckstop employees. Both truckers and CSWs had low perceived HIV risk in spite of being engaged in high-risk sex behaviors. Use of alcohol and amphetamine-like drugs was frequent among truckers and appeared to influence unsafe sex practices. Knowledge about amphetamine-related risks was low, as was access to health services and HIV/AIDS behavioral interventions. Interventions, targeting truckers, CSWs and truckstop employees, are needed that traverse cities, states and borders and take into account seasonality, spatial context and workplace conditions. PMID:16777641

  8. Norms and practices within marriage which shape gender roles, HIV/AIDS risk and risk reduction strategies in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique.

    PubMed

    Bandali, S

    2011-09-01

    Despite increasing HIV/AIDS rates among married individuals, minimal research has been conducted on how men and women respond to risk in a marriage. This paper examines strategies used by married individuals to combat HIV/AIDS risk against prevailing gender norms. Qualitative data were gathered in four villages of Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique. Group discussions were held with 160 men and women to explore gender norms, HIV/AIDS knowledge and risk determinants. From the group discussions, 29 individuals were selected for further in-depth interviews to explore relationships between gender norms and risk reduction efforts within marriages. Findings illustrate how infidelity and social limitations placed on condom use not only increase HIV/AIDS risk but also entrench gender disparities. Although power differences between genders can make it difficult to negotiate safe sex, men and women are taking measures to reduce perceived HIV/AIDS risk in their marriage. Married men are reconstructing norms and taking responsibility to protect their family from HIV/AIDS by remaining faithful. For women, responses to HIV/AIDS risk in a marriage are more closely related to their ability to generate an income. Financially dependent women tend to leave a risky marriage altogether in contrast to financially autonomous women who will negotiate condom use with their husband. Factors such as experience with a risky partner, the desire to maintain a good social standing, fear of HIV/AIDS acquisition and parental guidance and support influence men and women to reduce perceived HIV/AIDS risk, despite constraining gender norms and power imbalances in a marriage. Nuanced understandings of the ways in which men and women are already taking measures to decrease noted HIV/AIDS risk, despite gender norms that make this a challenge, should be incorporated into localised responses. PMID:21476146

  9. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    SciTech Connect

    Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.; Sanzo, D.L.

    1997-08-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.

  10. Risk and protection for HIV/AIDS in African-American, Hispanic, and White adolescents.

    PubMed

    Bartlett, Robin; Buck, Raymond; Shattell, Mona M

    2008-07-01

    African-Americans and Hispanics are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS in the United States. HIV infection is often acquired during adolescence, a time when risky sexual behaviors are at their peak. This study explored relationships among selected risk factors, protective factors, and risky sexual behaviors among African-American, Hispanic, and White adolescents, from a sample of adolescents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. African-Americans and Hispanics were more likely to have sexual intercourse without the use of birth control than were Whites. African-Americans were more likely to have sexual behavior with multiple sexual partners than either Hispanics or Whites were, and African-Americans had higher self-esteem than did Hispanics and Whites. In order to develop culturally sensitive, effective interventions to prevent HIV/AIDS in adolescents, racial differences in risk and protective factors must be examined. PMID:18807775

  11. Promotion of Latina Health: Intersectionality of IPV and Risk for HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Rountree, Michele A; Granillo, Teresa; Bagwell-Gray, Meredith

    2016-04-01

    Latina women in the United States are vulnerable to two intersecting public health concerns: intimate partner violence (IPV) and subsequent risk for HIV/AIDS infection. Examination of the cultural and contextual life factors of this understudied population is crucial to developing culturally relevant HIV interventions. Focus groups with Latinas (15 monolingual; 10 bilingual) who have experienced IPV were conducted. Monolingual and bilingual Latinas endorsed that they were concerned about HIV infection, naming partner infidelity and experiences of forced and coerced sex as primary reasons for their concern. However, monolingual participants had lower levels of HIV knowledge, spending much time discussing myths of HIV infection, whereas bilingual participants spent more time discussing specific prevention techniques, including challenges related to the violence in their relationships. These findings suggest that HIV/AIDS prevention programs for Latinas need to pay close attention to the different historical, contextual, and cultural experiences of this at-risk group of women. PMID:26472666

  12. Plasma Fatty Acids in Zambian Adults with HIV/AIDS: Relation to Dietary Intake and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Nyirenda, Christopher K.; Kabagambe, Edmond K.; Koethe, John R.; Kiage, James N.; Chi, Benjamin H.; Musonda, Patrick; Blevins, Meridith; Bosire, Claire N.; Tsai, Michael Y.; Heimburger, Douglas C.

    2015-01-01

    Objective. To determine whether 24 hr dietary recalls (DR) are a good measure of polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) intake when compared to plasma levels, and whether plasma PUFA is associated with markers of HIV/AIDS progression and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Methods. In a cross-sectional study among 210 antiretroviral therapy-naïve HIV-infected adults from Lusaka, Zambia, we collected data on medical history and dietary intake using 24 hr DR. We measured fatty acids and markers of AIDS progression and CVD risk in fasting plasma collected at baseline. Results. PUFA intakes showed modest correlations with corresponding plasma levels; Spearman correlations were 0.36 (p < 0.01) for eicosapentaenoic acid and 0.21 (p = 0.005) for docosahexaenoic acid. While there were no significant associations (p > 0.05) between total plasma PUFA and C-reactive protein (CRP) or lipid levels, plasma arachidonic acid was inversely associated with CRP and triglycerides and positively associated with HDL-C, CD4+ T-cell count, and plasma albumin (p < 0.05). Plasma saturated fatty acids (SFA) were positively associated with CRP (β = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.40, p = 0.003) and triglycerides (β = 0.08; 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.12, p < 0.01). Conclusions. Our data suggest that a single DR is inadequate for assessing PUFA intake and that plasma arachidonic acid levels may modulate HIV/AIDS progression and CVD risk. PMID:26161268

  13. Risk of HIV/AIDS in China: subpopulations of special importance

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Z; Vermund, S; Wang, N

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To describe the HIV/AIDS epidemic in mainland China. Methods: We review the magnitude of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the social characteristics and geographic distribution of at-risk groups in China based on published literature and unpublished official data. Results: Injection drug use has been the dominant route for HIV infection in China, and will continue to be a major risk factor with increasing numbers of new drug users and needle sharing. Commercial plasma donation with unhygienic re-infusion of red blood cells was common in rural communities in the early 1990s. While this is unlikely to constitute a major factor for future HIV spread, those already infected represent a formidable treatment challenge. Huge seasonal work migration facilitates disease spread across regions. Many homosexual men have unprotected sex with men, women, or both, and may contract or spread HIV. Though commercial sex workers have contributed to a small proportion of the reported epidemic thus far, flourishing commercial sex is of growing concern and may have a bridging role in transmitting HIV from core groups to the general population. Conclusion: Increasing numbers of sex workers and drug users, internal migration, high risk behaviours, and low condom use suggest a future upward trend for HIV/AIDS and underscore the urgency of scaling up interventions in China. PMID:16326842

  14. Risk-taking, responsibility for health, and attitude toward avoiding AIDS.

    PubMed

    Neubauer, B J

    1989-06-01

    A telephone survey was completed with 400 adults to explore a possible relation between health risk-taking and perceived personal responsibility for health. The attitude that AIDS could be avoided by being careful was weakly associated with responses to questions about wearing seat belts and smoking. The pattern held only among those who thought their health was good for people their age. After reviewing related literature, it appears that poor health status and dogmatism may contribute to denial of risk and to risky sexual behavior. Themes for public health educational campaigns are suggested. PMID:2762466

  15. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  16. Sexual and reproductive health and HIV/AIDS risk perception in the Malawi tourism industry.

    PubMed

    Bisika, Thomas

    2009-06-01

    Malawi has for a long time relied on agriculture for the generation of foreign exchange. Due to varied reasons like climate change, the Malawi government has, therefore, identified tourism as one way of boosting foreign exchange earnings and is already in the process of developing the sector especially in the area of ecotourism. However, tourism is associated with increasing prostitution, drug abuse and a whole range of other sexual and reproductive health (SRH) problems such as teenage pregnancies, HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). This paper examines the knowledge, attitudes, practices and behaviour as well as risk perceptions associated with HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies among staff in the tourism industry and communities around tourist facilities in Malawi. The study was descriptive in nature and used both qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative methods involved in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The quantitative technique employed a survey of 205 purposively selected subjects from the tourism sector. The study concludes that people in the tourism sector are at high risk of HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies and should be considered as a vulnerable group. The study further observes that this group of people has not adopted behaviours that can protect them from HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies although there is high demand for voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) which offers a very good entry point for HIV prevention and treatment in the tourism sector. The study recommends that a comprehensive tourism policy covering tourists, employees and communities around tourist facilities is required. Such a policy should address the rights of HIV infected employees and the provision of prevention and treatment services for HIV/AIDS and STIs as well as a broad range of SRH and family planning services especially

  17. Behavioural risk factors for HIV/AIDS in a low-HIV prevalence Muslim nation: Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Gibney, L; Choudhury, P; Khawaja, Z; Sarker, M; Vermund, S H

    1999-03-01

    A review of published and unpublished data indicates the prevalence of high-risk behaviours for HIV transmission in segments of the Bangladeshi population. These include casual unprotected sex, heterosexual as well as between males, prior to and after marriage. Intravenous drug use (IVDU) exists though illicit drugs are more commonly inhaled. There is a fear, however, that inhalers may turn to injecting drugs, as is common in neighbouring countries. The lack of public awareness of HIV/AIDS, and misconceptions about the disease, may contribute to continued high-risk behaviours by segments of the population and, thus, to the spread of HIV. Bangladesh's proximity to India and Myanmar (countries with high HIV endemicity and a rapidly growing number of cases) increases fears of an epidemic in Bangladesh. This proximity will only be a risk factor, however, if high-risk contacts occur between nationals of these countries. PMID:10340200

  18. Behavioural risk factors for HIV/AIDS in a low-HIV prevalence Muslim nation: Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Gibney, L; Choudhury, P; Khawaja, Z; Sarker, M; Vermund, SH

    2008-01-01

    Summary A review of published and unpublished data indicates the prevalence of high-risk behaviours for HIV transmission in segments of the Bangladeshi population. These include casual unprotected sex, heterosexual as well as between males, prior to and after marriage. Intravenous drug use (IVDU) exists though illicit drugs are more commonly inhaled. There is a fear, however, that inhalers may turn to injecting drugs, as is common in neighbouring countries. The lack of public awareness of HIV/AIDS, and misconceptions about the disease, may contribute to continued high-risk behaviours by segments of the population and, thus, to the spread of HIV. Bangladesh’s proximity to India and Myanmar (countries with high HIV endemicity and a rapidly growing number of cases) increases fears of an epidemic in Bangladesh. This proximity will only be a risk factor, however, if high-risk contacts occur between nationals of these countries. PMID:10340200

  19. Self-compassion and risk behavior among people living with HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Dawson Rose, Carol; Webel, Allison; Sullivan, Kathleen M; Cuca, Yvette P; Wantland, Dean; Johnson, Mallory O; Brion, John; Portillo, Carmen J; Corless, Inge B; Voss, Joachim; Chen, Wei-Ti; Phillips, J Craig; Tyer-Viola, Lynda; Rivero-Méndez, Marta; Nicholas, Patrice K; Nokes, Kathleen; Kemppainen, Jeanne; Sefcik, Elizabeth; Eller, Lucille Sanzero; Iipinge, Scholastika; Kirksey, Kenn; Chaiphibalsarisdi, Puangtip; Davila, Nancy; Hamilton, Mary Jane; Hickey, Dorothy; Maryland, Mary; Reid, Paula; Holzemer, William L

    2014-04-01

    Sexual risk behavior and illicit drug use among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) contribute to poor health and onward transmission of HIV. The aim of this collaborative multi-site nursing research study was to explore the association between self-compassion and risk behaviors in PLWHA. As part of a larger project, nurse researchers in Canada, China, Namibia, Puerto Rico, Thailand and the US enrolled 1211 sexually active PLWHA using convenience sampling. The majority of the sample was male, middle-aged, and from the US. Illicit drug use was strongly associated with sexual risk behavior, but participants with higher self-compassion were less likely to report sexual risk behavior, even in the presence of illicit drug use. Self-compassion may be a novel area for behavioral intervention development for PLWHA. PMID:24510757

  20. Experimental and analytical studies for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    Various experimental and analytical studies performed for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment program are described with emphasis on carbon fiber characteristics, sensitivity of electrical equipment and components to shorting or arcing by carbon fibers, attenuation effect of carbon fibers on aircraft landing aids, impact of carbon fibers on industrial facilities. A simple method of estimating damage from airborne carbon fibers is presented.

  1. Assessing the Validity of a Single-Item HIV Risk Stage-of-Change Measure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Napper, Lucy E.; Branson, Catherine M.; Fisher, Dennis G.; Reynolds, Grace L.; Wood, Michelle M.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the validity of a single-item measure of HIV risk stage of change that HIV prevention contractors were required to collect by the California State Office of AIDS. The single-item measure was compared to the more conventional University of Rhode Island Change Assessment (URICA). Participants were members of Los Angeles…

  2. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  3. Reliability and risk assessment of structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.

    1991-01-01

    Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

  4. Assessment of Risk for Recurrent Diverticulitis

    PubMed Central

    Sallinen, Ville; Mali, Juha; Leppäniemi, Ari; Mentula, Panu

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Recurrence of acute diverticulitis is common, and—especially complicated recurrence—causes significant morbidity. To prevent recurrence, selected patients have been offered prophylactic sigmoid resection. However, as there is no tool to predict whose diverticulitis will recur and, in particular, who will have complicated recurrence, the indications for sigmoid resections have been variable. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors predicting recurrence of acute diverticulitis. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting with computed tomography–confirmed acute diverticulitis and treated nonresectionally during 2006 to 2010. Risk factors for recurrence were identified using uni- and multivariate Cox regression. A total of 512 patients were included. History of diverticulitis was an independent risk factor predicting uncomplicated recurrence of diverticulitis (1–2 earlier diverticulitis HR 1.6, 3 or more—HR 3.2). History of diverticulitis (HR 3.3), abscess (HR 6.2), and corticosteroid medication (HR 16.1) were independent risk factors for complicated recurrence. Based on regression coefficients, risk scoring was created: 1 point for history of diverticulitis, 2 points for abscess, and 3 points for corticosteroid medication. The risk score was unable to predict uncomplicated recurrence (AUC 0.48), but was able to predict complicated recurrence (AUC 0.80). Patients were further divided into low-risk (0–2 points) and high-risk (>2 points) groups. Low-risk and high-risk groups had 3% and 43% 5-year complicated recurrence rates, respectively. Risk for complicated recurrence of acute diverticulitis can be assessed using risk scoring. The risk for uncomplicated recurrence increases along with increasing number of previous diverticulitis. PMID:25715253

  5. Validation of a medical record-based delirium risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Rudolph, James L.; Harrington, Mary Beth; Lucatorto, Michelle A.; Chester, Jennifer G.; Francis, Joseph; Shay, Kenneth

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To improve identification of patients at high risk for delirium, this study developed a chart abstraction tool for delirium risk and validated the tool against clinical expert diagnosis of delirium Design Prospective Cohort Study Setting Tertiary VA Hospital in New England Participants 100 Veterans admitted to the medical service Measurements While admitted, each participant underwent serial assessments for delirium by a clinical expert. Using the four criteria of a validated delirium prediction rule (e.g. cognitive impairment, sensory deficit, severe illness, and dehydration), chart review terms were selected for each criteria and delirium risk was the sum of criteria present (range 0–4; 4-worst). After discharge, the chart tool was completed by a nurse blinded to the expert’s diagnosis. Results The participants (n=100) were largely older (mean age 81 ±7years) men (94% male) and 23% developed overall delirium (14% incident). The rate of overall delirium in participants with 0, 1–2, and 3–4 risk factors was 11%, 18%, and 50% (p=.01) respectively with a c-statistic of 0.65 (95% Confidence Interval 0.54, 0.76). For incident delirium, the rate was 11%, 13%, and 25% (p=.53) and the c-statistic of 0.56 (95%CI 0.42, 0.74). Discharge to a rehabilitation center or nursing home increased with increasing delirium risk (0%, 18%, 60%, p=.02). Conclusions A chart abstraction tool was effective at identifying overall delirium risk, but not incident delirium risk. While the tool cannot replace clinical assessment and diagnosis of delirium, the use of this tool as an educational, clinical, or quality measurement aid warrants additional study. PMID:22091575

  6. Dynamic risk simulation to assess risk along roads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voumard, J.; Caspar, O.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2013-04-01

    Risk generated by natural hazards on roads is usually calculated with equations integrating various parameters related to hazard and traffic. These are static variables, like a rockfall hazard estimation for a road section or the average number of vehicles crossing this section every day. This methodology cannot take into account dynamic variations of traffic and interactions between vehicles such as speed modifications due to the sinuosity, slowdowns resulting of saturated traffic or vehicles columns forming in front of traffic lights. The influence of traffic dynamics on the risk estimation is not assessed with standard methodologies. Here we show, by mean of a dynamic traffic simulator, that the traffic variations may greatly influence the risk estimation over time. The risk is analysed on several alpine road sections in Switzerland using a dynamic vehicles approach and compared with the results of the static methodology. It demonstrates that risk significantly increases on sinuous sections because of the decreasing of vehicles speed. A more realistic risk can be obtained from a dynamic approach especially on mountain roads. A dynamic traffic simulator, modelling interactions between vehicles is a helpful tool to support decision making to reduce risk on roads.

  7. Impact of culturally sensitive AIDS video education on the AIDS risk knowledge of African-American adolescents.

    PubMed

    Stevenson, H C; Davis, G

    1994-02-01

    AIDS video education is a major mode of providing information about the spread and prevention of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Very little has been written about the need for culturally salient messages in increasing the acquisition and retention of HIV/AIDS prevention information, even though there is considerable agreement that limited culturally sensitive information is reaching African-American youth. This investigation sought to ascertain the impact of a culturally similar AIDS video on the acquisition of AIDS knowledge and endorsement of HIV/AIDS prevention beliefs. This study randomly assigned classes of African-American teenagers to one of two treatment groups: culturally similar video (CSV) AIDS education and culturally dissimilar video (CDV) AIDS education. Results suggest that the CSV group demonstrated significant improvement in pre- to post- AIDS knowledge scores compared to the CDV group (using ANCOVA procedures). The intervention was not significant in demonstrating change in beliefs about prevention. Implications for the development of HIV/AIDS prevention programs for inner-city African-American youth are discussed. PMID:8024942

  8. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  9. Supplemental risk-assessment guidance for the Superfund program. Part 1. Guidance for Public-Health Risk Assessments. Part 2. Guidance for ecological Risk Assessments. Draft report (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-06-01

    This guidance manual was developed to address the practical aspects and issues pertaining to the Superfund risk-assessment process for both public health and environment concerns. Part 1, Guidance for Public Health Risk Assessments, supplements the Superfund Public Health Evaluation Manual and Superfund Exposure Assessment Manual and the Endangerment Assessment Handbook. Explicit guidance on technical matters which should be followed in developing public health risk assessments for EPA Region 1. The guidance addresses hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and uncertainty/limitations. Part 2 of the manual, Guidance for Ecological Risk Assessments, addresses the collection of site-specific data needed to support an ecological risk assessment, describes a framework for conducting the assessments, and provides several specific approaches for assessing risks to systems exposed to chemical contamination in different media.

  10. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  11. Are Rural Women Powerless When it Comes to HIV & AIDS Risk? Implications for Adult Education Programmes in South Africa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kiggundu, Edith; Castle, Jane

    2007-01-01

    There is an urgent need for fresh approaches to HIV & AIDS education for adults and youth in South Africa, particularly for those marginalised by society, such as rural black women. In this article we explore the factors which affect awareness, condom use and HIV & AIDS risk among a group of women who attend classes in a rural Adult Education…

  12. Occupational Risk of HIV, HBV and HSV-2 Infections in Health Care Personnel Caring for AIDS Patients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuhls, Thomas L.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Female health care workers with exposure to AIDS patients were studied. Two of the 246 workers showed evidence of opportunistic infections. This analysis confirms the low risk of occupationally acquired HIV infection when hospital infection control practices are employed around AIDS patients. (Author/VM)

  13. AIDS and the stigma of sexual promiscuity: Thai nurses' risk perceptions of occupational exposure to HIV.

    PubMed

    Chan, Kit Yee; Rungpueng, Arattha; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2009-05-01

    This paper examines the culturally shaped meanings of AIDS and perceptions of accidental occupational exposure to HIV among a group of twenty nurses in Bangkok, Thailand. The findings are based on data collected as a part of a larger mixed-methods study that examined how perceptions of risk behaviours (including sexual promiscuity) shape health workers' perceptions of patients living with HIV/AIDS. Nurses' narratives revealed that despite acknowledgement of the low probability of occupational exposure to HIV, the fear of HIV infection remained and was largely driven by the enormity of the anticipated social (rather than the health) consequences of being HIV-positive. The perceived certainty of social ostracism was reinforced by participants' observations of the social rejection experienced by people living with HIV/AIDS both within and outside clinical settings. For female nurses, the dominant social perception that women living with HIV/AIDS were violators of gender norms, and thus 'guilty' victims, was an issue central to their self-identities. Ways of improving care for people living with HIV in the light of the nurses' concerns and future research are discussed. PMID:19263260

  14. Methodology for assessing the performance of urine absorbing aids in controlling malodour release.

    PubMed

    Sironi, S; Capelli, L; Dentoni, L; Del Rosso, R

    2013-08-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the possibility of comparing the performance of different absorbent aids in terms of odour control by discussing a suitable methodology for product evaluation. To overcome the problems of low test reproducibility owing to biological urine variability, the first step of the work consisted of the identification and the production of artificial urine having a constant and stable composition over time, moreover preventing sensorial assessors from any risk of biological contamination. Sensorial measurements were performed to optimize the similarity between artificial and biological urine, especially as far as the composition of the volatile component and therefore of the odour properties are concerned. The assessment of absorbent articles performance to control urine malodour includes both the concentration and the hedonic tone of the odour released by the article itself loaded with synthetic urine. Analyses were run on different products, which can be grouped into two different classes: absorbing aids with or without odour control technology (OCT) respectively. Results show that, despite of the presence or absence of OCT on absorbing products, their odour concentrations are almost identical, being comprised between 10 000 and 12 000 ouE m(-3) . For this reason, it is evident that odour concentration is not suitable as the sole parameter for comparison of different absorbing products. Instead, the hedonic odour tone (odour pleasantness/unpleasantness) relevant to the different product typologies (that is products with and without OCT) should be used as an additional discriminating factor for this kind of comparative tests. PMID:23237491

  15. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  16. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  17. Mainstreaming risk reduction in urban planning and housing: a challenge for international aid organisations.

    PubMed

    Wamsler, Christine

    2006-06-01

    The effects of 'natural' disasters in cities can be worse than in other environments, with poor and marginalised urban communities in the developing world being most at risk. To avoid post-disaster destruction and the forced eviction of these communities, proactive and preventive urban planning, including housing, is required. This paper examines current perceptions and practices within international aid organisations regarding the existing and potential roles of urban planning as a tool for reducing disaster risk. It reveals that urban planning confronts many of the generic challenges to mainstreaming risk reduction in development planning. However, it faces additional barriers. The main reasons for the identified lack of integration of urban planning and risk reduction are, first, the marginal position of both fields within international aid organisations, and second, an incompatibility between the respective professional disciplines. To achieve better integration, a conceptual shift from conventional to non-traditional urban planning is proposed. This paper suggests related operative measures and initiatives to achieve this change. PMID:16689916

  18. A risk-based decision-aiding tool for waste disposal

    SciTech Connect

    Weiner, R.F.; Reiser, A.S.; Elcock, C.G.; Nevins, S.

    1997-10-01

    N-CART (the National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program Cost Analysis and Risk Tool) is being developed to aid in low-risk, cost-effective, timely management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and can therefore be used in management of mixed waste. N-CART provides evaluation of multiple alternatives and presents the consequences of proposed waste management activities in a clear and concise format. N-CART`s decision-aiding analyses include comparisons and sensitivity analyses of multiple alternatives and allows the user to perform quick turn-around {open_quotes}what if{close_quotes} studies to investigate various scenarios. Uncertainties in data (such as cost and schedule of various activities) are represented as distributions. N-CART centralizes documentation of the bases of program alternatives and program decisions, thereby supporting responses to stakeholders concerns. The initial N-CART design considers regulatory requirements, costs, and schedules for alternative courses of action. The final design will include risks (public health, occupational, economic, scheduling), economic benefits, and the impacts of secondary waste generation. An optimization tool is being incorporated that allows the user to specify the relative importance of cost, time risks, and other bases for decisions. The N-CART prototype can be used to compare the costs and schedules of disposal alternatives for mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW) and greater-than-Class-C (GTCC) waste, as well as spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and related scrap material.

  19. Individual risk of cutaneous melanoma in New Zealand: developing a clinical prediction aid

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background New Zealand and Australia have the highest melanoma incidence rates worldwide. In New Zealand, both the incidence and thickness have been increasing. Clinical decisions require accurate risk prediction but a simple list of genetic, phenotypic and behavioural risk factors is inadequate to estimate individual risk as the risk factors for melanoma have complex interactions. In order to offer tailored clinical management strategies, we developed a New Zealand prediction model to estimate individual 5-year absolute risk of melanoma. Methods A population-based case–control study (368 cases and 270 controls) of melanoma risk factors provided estimates of relative risks for fair-skinned New Zealanders aged 20–79 years. Model selection techniques and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the important predictors. The relative risks for predictors were combined with baseline melanoma incidence rates and non-melanoma mortality rates to calculate individual probabilities of developing melanoma within 5 years. Results For women, the best model included skin colour, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, having a 1st degree relative with large moles, and a personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The model correctly classified 68% of participants; the C-statistic was 0.74. For men, the best model included age, place of occupation up to age 18 years, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, birthplace, and a history of NMSC. The model correctly classified 67% of cases; the C-statistic was 0.71. Conclusions We have developed the first New Zealand risk prediction model that calculates individual absolute 5-year risk of melanoma. This model will aid physicians to identify individuals at high risk, allowing them to individually target surveillance and other management strategies, and thereby reduce the high melanoma burden in New Zealand. PMID:24884419

  20. Risk Assessment and Management of the Mother with Cardiovascular Disease.

    PubMed

    Hebson, Camden; Saraf, Anita; Book, Wendy M

    2016-03-01

    Chronic medical conditions account for most nonobstetrical pregnancy-related maternal complications. Preconception counseling of women with cardiovascular disease can be aided by an understanding of cardiovascular physiology in pregnancy and risk scores to guide management. PMID:26876118

  1. Risk Assessment with Adolescent Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulides, T. E.; Richardson, G.; Graham, F.; Kennedy, P. J.; Kelly, T. P.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the…

  2. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  3. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR WETLANDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This volume represents the proceedings of a workshop held from 30 July-3 August 1995 at Fairmont Hot Springs, Montana. The workshop was designed to meet the scientific and regulatory need for current information describing ecotoxicology and risk assessment for wetlands. Professio...

  4. Chemical Mixtures: Cancer Risk Assessment Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation will describe how EPA uses linear and nonlinear methods to derive cancer slope factors and reference doses,respectively, for single carcinogens, as described in EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. Then, the presentation will show how these toxicity ...

  5. GUIDELINES FOR CARCINOGEN RISK ASSESSMENT (1996)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA's cancer guidelines set forth recommended principles and procedures to guide EPA scientists in assessing the cancer risks from chemicals or other agents in the environment. They also inform EPA decision makers and the public about these procedures. EPA published final cancer...

  6. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  7. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report was prepared by an interagency work group under the auspices of the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR). The objective of the work group was to write a document on the major uses of ecological risk assessment by Federal agencies. Eight task groups we...

  8. EPIDEMIOLOGY IN RISK ASSESSMENT FOR REGULATORY POLICY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Epidemiology and risk assessment have several of the features needed to make the difficult decisions required in setting standards for levels of toxic agents in the workplace and environment. hey differ in their aims, orientation, and time scale. While the distribution of disease...

  9. PROPOSED GUIDELINES FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Proposed Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment were published in the Federal Register on September 9, 1996 (61 FR 47552) for a 90 day public review and comment period. The Proposed Guidelines are being developed to improve the quality of and consistency among EPA's ecolog...

  10. Computational Toxicology in Cancer Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment over the last half century has, for many individual cases served us well, but has proceeded on an extremely slow pace and has left us with considerable uncertainty. There are certainly thousands of compounds and thousands of exposure scenarios that remain unteste...

  11. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  12. PREGNANCY RISK ASSESSMENT MONITORING SYSTEM (PRAMS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    PRAMS, the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, is an ongoing state-specific population based surveillance system of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state health departments designed to improve the health of mothers and infants by reducing adverse...

  13. Clinical Model for Suicide Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kral, Michael J.; Sakinofsky, Isaac

    1994-01-01

    Presents suicide risk assessment in a two-tiered model comprising background/contextual factors and subjectivity. The subjectivity portion is formulated around Shneidman's concepts of perturbation and lethality. Discusses decision of hospital admission versus ambulatory care. Suggests that theoretically informed approach should serve both…

  14. Public Workshops on Issues in Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Workshop Schedule

    • September 2-3, 2015 – Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk Assessment
      This workshop will examine the role that data on epigenetic changes may play...

    • The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

      The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

    • Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

      2007-08-01

      According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

    • New horizons in fracture risk assessment.

      PubMed

      Aspray, Terry J

      2013-09-01

      Fracture is the clinical outcome of concern in osteoporosis, a disease variably defined over the last 30 years, mostly in terms of bone mineral density (BMD). However, an 'osseocentric' view of the condition may have hampered our understanding of how best to identify patients at the greatest risk of fragility fracture. More recently, the identification of a number of clinical risk factors for fragility fracture and the creation of fracture risk assessment tools, such as FRAX®, QFracture and Garvan have helped in a move towards clinically useful definitions, using the common currency of 10-year major osteoporotic and 10-year hip fracture risks. However, there are a large number of available fracture risk assessment tools and there remain few validation studies comparing their performance. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence has recently advocated the use of these methods in case finding and studies are underway in their clinical application. It seems likely that the operational definition of osteoporosis must now include fracture risk, which will never replace fracture incidence as a measure of clinical efficacy but may be used in future studies to define patient groups likely to benefit from intervention. We still need to understand more about the performance of these tools, particularly in the context of specific patient groups, such as those with vertebral osteoporosis, the frail, those who fall and patients with secondary osteoporosis. PMID:23892830

    • Incinerator thermal release valve risk assessment

      SciTech Connect

      Stevens, J.B.

      1998-12-31

      Human health risk assessments were conducted on emissions from several types of incinerators--a hazardous waste combustor, a medical waste/tire combustor, and a refuse derived fuel combustor in three different states. As part of these studies, the short-term emissions from thermal release valves operating during upset conditions were additionally evaluated. The latter assessments addressed two specific risk-related questions: (1) what are the incremental long-term risks/hazards associated with these short-term emissions; (2) what are the acute health hazards associated with these emissions? For each study, emission estimates for both the incinerator stack and the thermal release valve were obtained from the facility. Stack testing was utilized to obtain stack gas concentrations of emissions at one facility; engineering estimates were used to ascertain emissions from the thermal release valve. The two facilities were proposed incinerators, so literature-derived emissions were used throughout.

    • Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

      2013-04-01

      Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

    • Self-compassion and Risk Behavior among People Living with HIV/AIDS

      PubMed Central

      Webel, Allison; Sullivan, Kathleen M.; Cuca, Yvette P.; Wantland, Dean; Johnson, Mallory O.; Brion, John; Portillo, Carmen J.; Corless, Inge B.; Voss, Joachim; Chen, Wei-Ti; Phillips, J. Craig; Tyer-Viola, Lynda; Rivero-Méndez, Marta; Nicholas, Patrice K.; Nokes, Kathleen; Kemppainen, Jeanne; Sefcik, Elizabeth; Eller, Lucille Sanzero; Iipinge, Scholastika; Kirksey, Kenn; Chaiphibalsarisdi, Puangtip; Davila, Nancy; Hamilton, Mary Jane; Hickey, Dorothy; Maryland, Mary; Reid, Paula; Holzemer, William L.

      2014-01-01

      Sexual risk behavior and illicit drug use among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) contribute to poor health and onward transmission of HIV. The aim of this collaborative multi-site nursing research study was to explore the association between self-compassion and risk behaviors in PLWHA. Nurse researchers in Canada, China, Namibia, Puerto Rico, Thailand and the U.S. enrolled 2,182 PLWHA using convenience sampling. Over half of study participants were sexually active in the past three months. Participants with higher self-compassion were less likely to report sexual risk behavior. However, if a person also used illicit drugs, the relationship with self-compassion was reduced. Self-compassion may be a novel area for behavioral intervention development for PLWHA. PMID:24510757

  1. Assessing effects of a media campaign on HIV/AIDS awareness and prevention in Nigeria: results from the VISION Project

    PubMed Central

    Keating, Joseph; Meekers, Dominique; Adewuyi, Alfred

    2006-01-01

    Background In response to the growing HIV epidemic in Nigeria, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) initiated the VISION Project, which aimed to increase use of family planning, child survival, and HIV/AIDS services. The VISION Project used a mass-media campaign that focused on reproductive health and HIV/AIDS prevention. This paper assesses to what extent program exposure translates into increased awareness and prevention of HIV/AIDS. Methods This analysis is based on data from the 2002 and 2004 Nigeria (Bauchi, Enugu, and Oyo) Family Planning and Reproductive Health Surveys, which were conducted among adults living in the VISION Project areas. To correct for endogeneity, two-stage logistic regression is used to investigate the effect of program exposure on 1) discussion of HIV/AIDS with a partner, 2) awareness that consistent condom use reduces HIV risk, and 3) condom use at last intercourse. Results Exposure to the VISION mass media campaign was high: 59%, 47%, and 24% were exposed to at least 1 VISION radio, printed advertisement, or TV program about reproductive health, respectively. The differences in outcome variables between 2002 baseline data and the 2004 follow-up data were small. However, those with high program exposure were almost one and a half (Odds Ratio [O.R.] = 1.47, 95% Confidence Interval [C.I.] 1.01–2.16) times more likely than those with no exposure to have discussed HIV/AIDS with a partner. Those with high program exposure were over twice (O.R. = 2.20, C.I. 1.49–3.25) as likely as those with low exposure to know that condom use can reduce risk of HIV infection. Program exposure had no effect on condom use at last sex. Conclusion The VISION Project reached a large portion of the population and exposure to mass media programs about reproductive health and HIV prevention topics can help increase HIV/AIDS awareness. Programs that target rural populations, females, and unmarried individuals, and disseminate information on

  2. Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD. PMID:25650086

  3. AIDS Risk Among Students Attending Seventh-day Adventist Schools in North America.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopkins, Gary L.; Hopp, Joyce W.; Marshak, Helen P. Hopp; Neish, Christine; Rhoads, Gayle

    1998-01-01

    Surveys of students attending Seventh-Day Adventist (SDA) high schools assessed sexual and drug-use behaviors that placed them at risk for contracting or transmitting HIV. Comparison of the results with data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey indicated that SDA students had lower rates of sexual intercourse and substance use. Parental…

  4. Assessing the Impact of Testing Aids on Post-Secondary Student Performance: A Meta-Analytic Investigation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larwin, Karen H.; Gorman, Jennifer; Larwin, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Testing aids, including student-prepared testing aids (a.k.a., cheat sheets or crib notes) and open-textbook exams, are common practice in post-secondary assessment. There is a considerable amount of published research that discusses and investigates the impact of these testing aids. However, the findings of this research are contradictory and…

  5. Computer-aided assessment of cardiac computed tomographic images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Martin; Giger, Maryellen; Suzuki, Kenji; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2007-03-01

    The accurate interpretation of cardiac CT images is commonly hindered by the presence of motion artifacts. Since motion artifacts commonly can obscure the presence of coronary lesions, physicians must spend much effort analyzing images at multiple cardiac phases in order to determine which coronary structures are assessable for potential lesions. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) classifier was designed to assign assessability indices to calcified plaques in individual region-of-interest (ROI) images reconstructed at multiple cardiac phases from two cardiac scans obtained at heart rates of 66 bpm and 90 bpm. Six individual features (volume, circularity, mean intensity, margin gradient, velocity, and acceleration) were used for analyzing images. Visually-assigned assessability indices were used as a continuous truth, and jack-knife analysis with four testing sets was used to evaluate the performance of the ANN classifier. In a study in which all six features were inputted into the ANN classifier, correlation coefficients of 0.962 +/- 0.006 and 0.935 +/- 0.023 between true and ANN-assigned assessability indices were obtained for databases corresponding to 66 bpm and 90 bpm, respectively.

  6. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons.

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista de Duffard, A M; Duffard, R

    1996-01-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone,dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or changes in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. PMID:9182042

  7. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickol, Craig L.

    2008-01-01

    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  8. Assessing calibration of prognostic risk scores.

    PubMed

    Crowson, Cynthia S; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Therneau, Terry M

    2016-08-01

    Current methods used to assess calibration are limited, particularly in the assessment of prognostic models. Methods for testing and visualizing calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration slope) have been well thought out in the binary regression setting. However, extension of these methods to Cox models is less well known and could be improved. We describe a model-based framework for the assessment of calibration in the binary setting that provides natural extensions to the survival data setting. We show that Poisson regression models can be used to easily assess calibration in prognostic models. In addition, we show that a calibration test suggested for use in survival data has poor performance. Finally, we apply these methods to the problem of external validation of a risk score developed for the general population when assessed in a special patient population (i.e. patients with particular comorbidities, such as rheumatoid arthritis). PMID:23907781

  9. Clinical Risk Assessment in Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Asefzadeh, Saeed; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad H.; Nikpey, Ahmad; Atighechian, Golrokh

    2013-01-01

    Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin's Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital) through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG) performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN) was in respiratory care “Ventilator's alarm malfunction (no alarm)” with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal “not washing the NG-Tube” with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care. PMID:23930171

  10. Moving Forward in Human Cancer Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Paules, Richard S.; Aubrecht, Jiri; Corvi, Raffaella; Garthoff, Bernward; Kleinjans, Jos C.

    2011-01-01

    Background The current safety paradigm for assessing carcinogenic properties of drugs, cosmetics, industrial chemicals, and environmental exposures relies mainly on in vitro genotoxicity testing followed by 2-year rodent bioassays. This testing battery is extremely sensitive but has low specificity. Furthermore, rodent bioassays are associated with high costs, high animal burden, and limited predictive value for human risks. Objectives We provide a response to a growing appeal for a paradigm change in human cancer risk assessment. Methods To facilitate development of a road map for this needed paradigm change in carcinogenicity testing, a workshop titled “Genomics in Cancer Risk Assessment” brought together toxicologists from academia and industry and government regulators and risk assessors from the United States and the European Union. Participants discussed the state-of-the-art in developing alternative testing strategies for carcinogenicity, with emphasis on potential contributions from omics technologies. Results and Conclusions The goal of human risk assessment is to decide whether a given exposure to an agent is acceptable to human health and to provide risk management measures based on evaluating and predicting the effects of exposures on human health. Although exciting progress is being made using genomics approaches, a new paradigm that uses these methods and human material when possible would provide mechanistic insights that may inform new predictive approaches (e.g., in vitro assays) and facilitate the development of genomics-derived biomarkers. Regulators appear to be willing to accept such approaches where use is clearly defined, evidence is strong, and approaches are qualified for regulatory use. PMID:21147607

  11. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    PubMed Central

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

  12. Extramarital sex and HIV risk behavior among US adults: results from the National AIDS Behavioral Survey.

    PubMed Central

    Choi, K H; Catania, J A; Dolcini, M M

    1994-01-01

    Data from the National AIDS Behavioral Survey were used to examine the social distribution of extramarital sex and risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among married individuals in the United States. Of 1686 married respondents living across the United States, 2.2% reported extramarital sex; of 3827 married respondents living in 23 urban areas with large Hispanic or African-American populations, 2.5% reported having sexual partners outside marriage. The data indicate that the correlates of extramarital sex varied by race/ethnicity. Low levels of condom use were found among people reporting extramarital sex (8% to 19% consistent users). PMID:7998648

  13. Code System for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

    2001-03-27

    Version 00 SEISIM1 calculates the probabilities of seismically induced failures for components and systems and propagates these calculations to determine the probability of accident sequences and the resulting total risk, which is quantified as an expected value of radiation release and exposure from a given nuclear power plant. SEISIM1 was developed as a fundamental tool for the systems analysis portion of the NRC's Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP). The SSMRP provides a complete, self-containedmore » methodology to assess and quantify the risk to nuclear power plants from seismic events and seismically induced failures.« less

  14. International Space Station End-of-Life Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duncan, Gary W.

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) end-of-life (EOL) cycle is currently scheduled for 2020, although there are ongoing efforts to extend ISS life cycle through 2028. The EOL for the ISS will require deorbiting the ISS. This will be the largest manmade object ever to be de-orbited therefore safely deorbiting the station will be a very complex problem. This process is being planned by NASA and its international partners. Numerous factors will need to be considered to accomplish this such as target corridors, orbits, altitude, drag, maneuvering capabilities etc. The ISS EOL Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will play a part in this process by estimating the reliability of the hardware supplying the maneuvering capabilities. The PRA will model the probability of failure of the systems supplying and controlling the thrust needed to aid in the de-orbit maneuvering.

  15. International Space Station End-of-Life Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duncan, Gary

    2014-01-01

    Although there are ongoing efforts to extend the ISS life cycle through 2028, the International Space Station (ISS) end-of-life (EOL) cycle is currently scheduled for 2020. The EOL for the ISS will require de-orbiting the ISS. This will be the largest manmade object ever to be de-orbited, therefore safely de-orbiting the station will be a very complex problem. This process is being planned by NASA and its international partners. Numerous factors will need to be considered to accomplish this such as target corridors, orbits, altitude, drag, maneuvering capabilities, debris mapping etc. The ISS EOL Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will play a part in this process by estimating the reliability of the hardware supplying the maneuvering capabilities. The PRA will model the probability of failure of the systems supplying and controlling the thrust needed to aid in the de-orbit maneuvering.

  16. Can preferences in information processing aid in understanding suicide risk among emerging adults?

    PubMed

    Cramer, Robert J; Bryson, Claire N; Gardner, Brett O; Webber, Wesley B

    2016-07-01

    The present study evaluated emerging adult (n = 192 college students) preferences in information processing (PIP), defined by the need for affect (NFA) and need for cognition (NFC), as they may be associated with suicide risk. The following were direct indicators of elevated suicide risk: presence of lifetime exposure to suicide (i.e., lifetime yes/no), elevated depressive symptoms, and greater NFA avoidance. Two different interactions resulted in elevated suicide risk: high depressive symptoms and high NFA avoidance, and high NFC and high NFA. Present results concerning PIP hold the potential to inform suicide risk assessment and prevention efforts among young adults. PMID:27007001

  17. OVERVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR TOXIC AND PATHOGENIC AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is a process that defines the adverse health consequences of exposure to toxic or pathogenic agents. hen used in regulatory decision making, risk assessment is an important component of risk management, which "combines the risk assessment with the directives of re...

  18. Estimation of the standardized risk difference and ratio in a competing risks framework: application to injection drug use and progression to AIDS after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J

    2015-02-15

    There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. PMID:24966220

  19. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  20. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  1. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. PMID:26215051

  2. Operationalizing the assessment and management of violence risk in the short-term.

    PubMed

    Doyle, Michael; Logan, Caroline

    2012-01-01

    Assessing risk of violence in the short term is crucial for managing and preventing violence, especially in institutions such as psychiatric units and prisons. Despite a lack of consensus on the definition of "short term", a number of recent tools and guidelines have been developed to aid short-term clinical decision-making. Whereas the supporting evidence for the new tools is impressive, limitations remain in terms of the focus on prediction, limited consideration of strengths, and poor integration with formulation and risk management. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a brief clinical guide for the dynamic assessment of risks, strengths and treatability. It focuses on short-term risks and the characteristics of the individual that, if changed, might lead to an increase or decrease in risk. The START has the potential to operationalize the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach in order to inform the evaluation of multiple risk domains relevant to everyday psychiatric clinical practice. However, explicit guidance on integrating risk assessment, formulation and management is limited in the START and this paper describes the SPJ approach, reviews recent developments in approaches to risk, and considers how the START can be used to inform SPJ approaches and link risk assessment, formulation, and management. PMID:22753147

  3. Technology-Aided Assessment of Sensorimotor Function in Early Infancy

    PubMed Central

    Allievi, Alessandro G.; Arichi, Tomoki; Gordon, Anne L.; Burdet, Etienne

    2014-01-01

    There is a pressing need for new techniques capable of providing accurate information about sensorimotor function during the first 2 years of childhood. Here, we review current clinical methods and challenges for assessing motor function in early infancy, and discuss the potential benefits of applying technology-assisted methods. We also describe how the use of these tools with neuroimaging, and in particular functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), can shed new light on the intra-cerebral processes underlying neurodevelopmental impairment. This knowledge is of particular relevance in the early infant brain, which has an increased capacity for compensatory neural plasticity. Such tools could bring a wealth of knowledge about the underlying pathophysiological processes of diseases such as cerebral palsy; act as biomarkers to monitor the effects of possible therapeutic interventions; and provide clinicians with much needed early diagnostic information. PMID:25324827

  4. Effective Computer-Aided Assessment of Mathematics; Principles, Practice and Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenhow, Martin

    2015-01-01

    This article outlines some key issues for writing effective computer-aided assessment (CAA) questions in subjects with substantial mathematical or statistical content, especially the importance of control of random parameters and the encoding of wrong methods of solution (mal-rules) commonly used by students. The pros and cons of using CAA and…

  5. Assessing Tuition and Student Aid Strategies: Using Price-Response Measures to Simulate Pricing Alternatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    St. John, Edward P.

    1994-01-01

    A study used price-response measures from recent national studies to assess college and university pricing (tuition and student aid) alternatives in diverse institutional settings. It is concluded that such analyses are feasible. Analysis indicated limits to "Robin Hood" pricing patterns are predominant in private colleges. Consideration of new…

  6. Lecturers' Perspectives on the Use of a Mathematics-Based Computer-Aided Assessment System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Broughton, Stephen J.; Robinson, Carol L.; Hernandez-Martinez, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Computer-aided assessment (CAA) has been used at a university with one of the largest mathematics and engineering undergraduate cohorts in the UK for more than ten years. Lecturers teaching mathematics to first year students were asked about their current use of CAA in a questionnaire and in interviews. This article presents the issues that these…

  7. Assessing Riverside Community College Nursing Student Attitudes toward Exposure to AIDS/HIV-Positive Patients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kross, Carolyn Sue

    In fall 1990, a study was conducted to assess the attitudes of nursing students who were attending Riverside Community College (RCC), in California, toward exposure to Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome/Human Immunodeficiency Virus (AIDS/HIV) positive patients in a hospital setting. All students enrolled in RCC's associate degree nursing program…

  8. Assessing College Students' Attitudes, Knowledge and Behavior Towards HIV/AIDS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Cheri; And Others

    The purpose of this ongoing study was to assess attitudes, knowledge and behaviors in college students toward Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS). The researchers wanted to asses students' knowledge, attitudes, and behavior for utilization in educational and skill building programs for college students.…

  9. Using a Technology-Based Case to Aid in Improving Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zelin, Robert C., II

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes how a technology-based case using Microsoft Access can aid in the assessment process. A case was used in lieu of giving a final examination in an Accounting Information Systems course. Students worked in small groups to design a database-driven payroll system for a hypothetical company. Each group submitted its results along…

  10. Mind the gap: Concerns using endpoints from endocrine screening assays in risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wheeler, James R; Weltje, Lennart; Green, Richard M

    2014-08-01

    Endocrine screening assays not only provide mechanistic information on the potential of a substance to interact with the endocrine system, but also data potentially relevant for risk assessment. However, these screening assays have a number of limitations that should be considered before the direct use of such data for risk assessment purposes. This paper discusses the limitations that should be considered for both human and environmental risk assessment. A proposal is made to provide an objective and transparent process in order to consider which endpoint(s) might be incorporated into a risk assessment, and when more definitive studies may be of value. The proposal is complemented with an easy-to-follow flowchart to aid industry scientists and regulators when evaluating the relevance of these data. Such an approach is necessary to ensure the appropriate use of screening data to further our understanding of the eco/toxicological profile of substances undergoing screening. PMID:24887212

  11. Practice management based on risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sandberg, Hans

    2004-01-01

    The management of a dental practice is most often focused on what clinicians do (production of items), and not so much on what is achieved in terms of oral health. The main reason for this is probably that it is easier to measure production and more difficult to measure health outcome. This paper presents a model based on individual risk assessment that aims to achieve a financially sound economy and good oral health. The close-to-the-clinic management tool, the HIDEP Model (Health Improvement in a DEntal Practice) was pioneered initially in Sweden at the end of 1980s. The experience over a 15-year period with different elements of the model is presented, including: the basis of examination and risk assessment; motivation; task delegation and leadership issues; health-finance evaluations; and quality development within a dental clinic. DentiGroupXL, a software program designed to support the work based on the model, is also described. PMID:15646588

  12. The perinatal assessment of psychosocial risk.

    PubMed

    Haglund, L J; Britton, J R

    1998-06-01

    Although evaluation of psychosocial risk factors prior to perinatal hospital discharge has been advocated, the means for accomplishing such an evaluation are not well established. This article reviews several major psychosocial risk factors together with instruments that have been utilized to assess them during the perinatal period. Formal constructs reviewed include anxiety, depression, self-concept, general attitudes, life events, stress, adaptation, social support, marital and family functioning, and the home environment. Ongoing assessment of psychosocial status using formal instruments during routine perinatal care may provide a more complete picture of the psychosocial needs of the individual mother and her family, allowing for more appropriate, timely intervention and utilization of social and health care resources. PMID:9647002

  13. Assessing the cancer risk from environmental PCBs.

    PubMed Central

    Cogliano, V J

    1998-01-01

    A new approach to assessing the cancer risk from environmental polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) considers both toxicity and environmental processes to make distinctions among environmental mixtures. New toxicity information from a 1996 cancer study of four commercial mixtures strengthens the case that all PCB mixtures can cause cancer, although different mixtures have different potencies. Environmental processes alter PCB mixtures through partitioning, chemical transformation, and preferential bioaccumulation; these processes can increase or decrease toxicity considerably. Bioaccumulated PCBs are of greatest concern because they appear to be more toxic than commercial PCBs and more persistent in the body. The new approach uses toxicity studies of commercial mixtures to develop a range of cancer potency estimates and then considers the effect of environmental processes to choose appropriate values for representative classes of environmental mixtures. Guidance is given for assessing risks from different exposure pathways, less-than-lifetime and early-life exposures, and mixtures containing dioxinlike compounds. PMID:9618347

  14. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  15. Degraded environments alter prey risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2012-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment. PMID:23403754

  16. Cardiovascular risk assessment in women - an update.

    PubMed

    Collins, P; Webb, C M; de Villiers, T J; Stevenson, J C; Panay, N; Baber, R J

    2016-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in postmenopausal women. Although it is a disease of aging, vascular disease initiates much earlier in life. Thus, there is a need to be aware of the potential to prevent the development of the disease from an early age and continue this surveillance throughout life. The menopausal period and early menopause present an ideal opportunity to assess cardiovascular risk and plan accordingly. Generally in this period, women will be seen by primary health-care professionals and non-cardiovascular specialists. This review addresses female-specific risk factors that may contribute to the potential development of cardiovascular disease. It is important for all health-care professionals dealing with women in midlife and beyond to be cognisant of these risk factors and to initiate female-specific preventative measures or to refer to a cardiovascular specialist. PMID:27327421

  17. [Methods of risk assessment and their validation].

    PubMed

    Baracco, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    The review of the literature data shows several methods for the the risks assessment of biomnechanical overload of the musculoskeletal system in activities with repetitive strain of the upper limbs and manual material handling. The application of these methods should allow the quantification ofriskfor the working population, the identification of the preventive measures to reduce the risk and their effectiveness and thle design of a specific health surveillance scheme. In this paper we analyze the factors which must be taken into account in Occupational Medicine to implement a process of validation of these methods. In conclusion we believe it will necessary in the future the availability of new methods able to analyze and reduce the risk already in the design phase of the production process. PMID:25558718

  18. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  19. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-01-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  20. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-11-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  1. Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-Entry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lips, T.; Koppenwallner, G.; Bianchi, L.; Klinkrad, H.

    2009-03-01

    From 2007 to 2008, Hypersonic Technology Göttingen (HTG) worked on a study called Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-entry (RADR). The main purposes of this study were to identify and to quantify the inherent uncertainties of re-entry analysis tools, and to provide possible risk mitigation measures. For these purposes, three basic risk scenarios were specified: a 1-ton-class satellite without propulsion for uncontrolled re-entry, a 6-ton-class satellite with propulsion and the capability to perform a controlled re-entry, and a 1-ton-class launcher upper stage re-entering uncontrolled. Based on the identified uncertainty parameters, variation analyses were conducted for these scenarios with the two ESA tools for re-entry analysis SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Reentry and Aerothermal Breakup) and SESAM (Spacecraft Entry Survival Analysis Module). This paper describes the major results of the RADR study.

  2. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  3. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Risk Assessment Criteria B Appendix B to Part 236... B to Part 236—Risk Assessment Criteria The safety-critical performance of each product for which risk assessment is required under this part must be assessed in accordance with the following...

  4. Health Costs of Wealth Gains: Labor Migration and Perceptions of HIV/AIDS Risks in Mozambique

    PubMed Central

    Agadjanian, Victor; Arnaldo, Carlos; Cau, Boaventura

    2012-01-01

    The study employs survey data from rural Mozambique to examine how men’s labor migration affects their non-migrating wives’ perceptions of HIV/AIDS risks. Using a conceptual framework centered on tradeoffs between economic security and health risks that men’s migration entails for their left-behind wives, it compares women married to migrants and those married to non-migrants while also distinguishing between economically successful and unsuccessful migration. The analysis finds that the economic success of men’s migration, rather than migration itself, significantly predicts women’s worries about getting infected by their husbands or their own extramarital partners, and their husbands’ stance on condom use. These findings are situated within a broader context of socio-economic, gender, and marital dynamics and vulnerabilities produced or amplified by male labor migration in sub-Saharan and similar developing settings. PMID:22500057

  5. Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Methods Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. Results The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women. PMID:24204664

  6. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  7. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  8. Risk assessment of urban air pollution.

    PubMed

    Törnqvist, M; Ehrenberg, L

    1992-12-01

    Urban air pollution, originating in western countries mainly from automotive engine exhausts, contains thousands of components, many of which are genotoxic, i.e. are putative cancer initiators. Other pollution components, such as NO2 and certain particles, may have cocarcinogenic/promotive effects, at least at higher exposure levels. Cancer risk assessment of this complex mixture has to combine data from the exposure history, from epidemiological studies as well as from animal carcinogenicity tests, and from in vitro studies of fractions and individual components. Data for metabolism and pharmaco-kinetics have also to be considered. A multiplicative linear model is assumed to be valid for cancer initiation at low levels. Attempts are being made to determine the target dose from ultimate carcinogens (reactive metabolites) via macromolecule adduct levels, and to base the risk assessment on the radiation-dose equivalent to the chemical dose. So far this has been possible only for simple alkenes, which are metabolized to epoxides, and indirectly, via benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), for particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). The lifetime risk of cancer (all sites) from ethene is estimated accordingly to 1.4 x 10(-4) per microgram m-3, and from PAH to 12 x 10(-4) per ng m-3 BaP. For other components indicated to give risk contribution (NOx, volatile PAH, benzene, aldehydes, butadiene) essential data are lacking and only very rough estimates can be given at this time. PMID:1306130

  9. HIV/AIDS knowledge and high risk sexual practices among southern California Vietnamese.

    PubMed Central

    Gellert, G A; Maxwell, R M; Higgins, K V; Mai, K K; Lowery, R; Doll, L

    1995-01-01

    OBJECTIVES--Vietnamese immigration to the U.S. since the conclusion of the Vietnam war has been substantial and in Orange County, CA, Vietnamese Americans comprise 3% of the population (the largest community in the US). Our objective was to collect data on the HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitudes and self-reported high risk behaviours within this community. METHODS--A survey instrument was administered anonymously in Vietnamese to 532 respondents in their homes. Individuals from three population strata were randomly sampled: men 18 to 35 years old (N = 193); men 36 to 45 years old (N = 137); and women 18 to 35 years old (N = 202). Data were gathered on: (1) degree of acculturation; (2) knowledge and attitudes towards HIV/AIDS; and (3) self-reported sexual and other high risk practices. RESULTS--Survey data indicated that 38% of respondents were very worried about themselves and 83% were worried about a family member getting AIDS. Knowledge about actual modes of HIV transmission was generally accurate, but a substantial minority still believed that HIV can be transmitted through casual contact, and 68% from needles used in hospitals. Women demonstrated less accurate knowledge than men on five key items. Quarantine of the HIV infected was agreed to by 45%. Twenty-nine percent did not believe that the epidemic would affect them personally, and 49% stated that they did not have enough information about AIDS to protect themselves. Regarding sexual practices, 31% reported never having had sex. Of the others, 8% had two or more sexual partners in the prior 12 months. No same sex behaviour was reported. Six percent of men had visited a female prostitute; of these, 24% had visited 2 or more in the prior 12 months; half of encounters in this time period were outside the US. Substantial percentages of sexually active, unmarried respondents indicated that they never use (17-40%) or only sometimes use (10-32%) condoms. Less than 1% had used injection drugs. CONCLUSIONS

  10. Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

    PubMed Central

    Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

  11. Understanding the link between trafficking in persons and HIV and AIDS risk in Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Kamazima, Switbert R; Ezekiel, Mangi J; Kazaura, Method R; Fimbo, Benett

    2012-01-01

    The magnitude of trafficking in persons in Tanzania is unknown. Consequently, available information on health risks of persons trafficked for different forms of exploitation is extremely scanty. We conducted a baseline study in eight administrative regions of Tanzania using both qualitative and quantitative methods to generate data on the health conditions of trafficked persons to inform trafficking in persons control measures through HIV and AIDS interventions. Study participants included the national, regional and district community development officers, district medical officers, local government leaders, managers or representatives of non-governmental organizations involved in anti-trafficking in persons activities, members of the community and victims. Findings indicated that common forms of labour into which persons are trafficked include domestic services, agriculture (farming), construction, mining/quarrying, fishing, lumbering and manufacturing. Trafficked persons are reported to be exposed to risks like overcrowding, long working hours, psychological problems, physical injuries, impotence, breathing problems and sexually transmitted infections including HIV. It is concluded that the reported occupational hazards in industries where trafficked persons are forced into are not specific to trafficked persons as they affect all labourers. However, the underground nature of the trafficking in persons process increases health problems and risks, including the vulnerability to HIV infection. More tailored research is needed, especially to find means of how to reach out and provide services to this particular vulnerable population, validate labour forms of exploitation into which persons are trafficked to enable the integration or mainstreaming of HIV and AIDS and trafficking in persons at the policy and programmatic levels. In addition, findings would facilitate the understanding of the link between increased risk of IRV and trafficking in persons. PMID:26591750

  12. HIV/AIDS Risk Reduction Intervention for Women who have Experienced Intimate Partner Violence

    PubMed Central

    Rountree, Michele A.

    2010-01-01

    A growing body of literature highlights the association between women who have experienced intimate partner abuse (IPA) and their heightened risk for HIV/AIDS (human immune deficiency syndrome/ acquired immune deficiency syndrome) infection. Finding HIV risk reduction strategies that are contextually relevant for this population is an important public policy priority. This qualitative study researched women who have experienced intimate partner abuse in order to develop a HIV/AIDS risk reduction intervention unique to their circumstances. This pilot study explored the critical components of such an intervention among a racially/ethnically stratified (African-American, Mexican-American and Anglo) sample of women (n=43) who have experienced IPA. Focus groups were conducted and transcribed, and a content analysis was used to identify major themes. In all five focus groups, participants viewed the research as interesting, good, beneficial, and/or important based on their perceptions of risk for infection. Respondents felt that they knew of ways to protect themselves from infection in non-abusive relationships; however, acknowledged the difficulties of doing so given the context of their abusive relationships. Examining the racial/ethnic differences across focus groups showed that the language used by women is quite variable. The ways in which survivors define rape, sexual abuse, and their own experiences are all unique; however, their actual experiences have many similarities. Discussed at length are the topics participants shared as critical in informing the design of an intervention and the relevance of the findings to social work clinical practice is explained. PMID:21170178

  13. Modeling of aerosol transport as an aid to corrosivity assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Klassen, R.D.; Roberge, P.R.; Tullmin, M.A.

    1999-07-01

    In certain regimes of atmospheric corrosion, the corrosion rate is limited not by electrochemical reactions but by the rate of mass transfer of pollutants. In these cases, a mass transfer model that accounts for the transport of pollutants, such as a marine salt aerosol, provides a theoretical and predictive framework for assessing corrosivity severity. Such a model of the transport of a marine aerosol fairly near the ground and well within the planetary boundary layer was developed. The predicted aerosol concentration as a function of distance for 1500 m from a steady source was consistent with published data on steel corrosion and salinity rates near an ocean. Implications from the model regarding objects that are exposed to aerosol-containing wind include: (1) increasing wind speed increases the aerosol deposition rate and therefore the corrosion rate, (2) objects that are in the lee of prevailing winds from an aerosol source will corrode faster than objects on the windward side of an aerosol source, and (3) smaller objects can be expected to corrode faster because of a greater capture efficiency of salt aerosols.

  14. Effective Communication of Risks to Young Adults: Using Message Framing and Visual Aids to Increase Condom Use and Std Screening

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T.

    2011-01-01

    Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs)--including HIV/AIDS--are among the most common infectious diseases in young adults. How can we effectively promote prevention and detection of STDs in this high risk population? In a two-phase longitudinal experiment we examined the effects of a brief risk awareness intervention (i.e., a sexual health…

  15. Risk and Protective Factors for Bullying Victimization among AIDS-Affected and Vulnerable Children in South Africa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cluver, Lucie; Bowes, Lucy; Gardner, Frances

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: To examine whether bullying is a risk factor for psychological distress among children in poor, urban South Africa. To determine risk and protective factors for bullying victimization. Method: One thousand and fifty children were interviewed in deprived neighborhoods, including orphans, AIDS-affected children, street children, and…

  16. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al. PMID:25226200

  17. Enhancing awareness to mitigate the risk of HIV/AIDS in older adults.

    PubMed

    Inelmen, Emine Meral; Sergi, Giuseppe; De Rui, Marina; Manzato, Enzo

    2014-12-01

    HIV is often assumed to only affect younger people, and many older people do not realize that they might risk acquiring the virus. Given that sexual transmission is by far the most common way to contract HIV around the world, health care professionals do not usually pay enough attention to the possibility of HIV/AIDS in older adults, based on the common conviction that they no longer have any sexual desires and that they are sexually inactive. Nevertheless, the sexual behavior of older people is likely to change over time, as aging baby boomers progress into their 60s and 70s, meeting the criteria for "successful aging", and not conforming to the stereotype of "sexless elderly". Hence the urgent need to awareness is that HIV remains as a major health threat even in advanced age. Prompt diagnosis and treatment are especially crucial in older adults because of their general frailty and high comorbidity levels. This article reviews recent literature concerning HIV/AIDS in older adults, as regard the related epidemiological, clinical and public health issues, with a view to suggesting how the rising rate of HIV transmission in this age group might be mitigated, and shows the main points that HCP should tackle to identify older people at risk of HIV infection. In summary, there is a pressing need to develop effective prevention schemes and to adapt clinical and programmatic approaches to improve the survival of older people with HIV. PMID:24789219

  18. An assessment of invasion risk from assisted migration.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Jillian M; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2008-06-01

    To reduce the risk of extinction due to climate change, some ecologists have suggested human-aided translocation of species, or assisted migration (AM), to areas where climate is projected to become suitable. Such intentional movement, however, may create new invasive species if successful introductions grow out of control and cause ecologic or economic damage. We assessed this risk by surveying invasive species in the United States and categorizing invaders based on origin. Because AM will involve moving species on a regional scale within continents (i.e., range shifts), we used invasive species with an intracontinental origin as a proxy for species that would be moved through AM. We then determined whether intracontinental invasions were more prevalent or harmful than intercontinental invasions. Intracontinental invasions occurred far less frequently than invasions from other continents, but they were just as likely to have had severe effects. Fish and crustaceans pose a particularly high threat of intracontinental invasion. We conclude that the risk of AM to create novel invasive species is small, but assisted species that do become invasive could have large effects. Past experience with species reintroductions may help inform policy regarding AM. PMID:18577085

  19. Offshore blowouts, data for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Holand, P.

    1995-12-31

    Blowouts are, besides gas leakages, the major contributor to the total risk for offshore installations. Therefore, the blowout risk is always included in Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) of offshore installations in the Norwegian Sector of the North Sea. SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database has existed since 1984 (until 1990 it was called Marintek`s blowout database). In 1990 the responsibility of the database was transferred to SINTEF Safety and Reliability. Throughout these years the database has been used for assessing blowout risk associated to development and operation of fields offshore Norway. Six oil companies and two consultants are presently sponsoring the database. These companies are using the database when performing risk analyses. During the past three years the database has been subjected to a thorough quality improvement, both with respect to the user interface, and most important, regarding the blowout data included in the database. What is unique with this database, besides the high quality of blowout descriptions, is first that the blowout causes are categorized related to loss of primary and secondary barriers. Secondly that the user interface makes it possible to establish searches to withdraw information regarding any blowout type subjected for specific searches.

  20. Project Fox: Assessing Risks Posed By Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.; Chen, X.; Liu, W.; Manchev, P.; Paté-Cornell, M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to make decisions on how to invest limited research dollars on asteroid surveillance and mitigation options, an analytic understanding of the risks posed by impacts is necessary. Qualitative and quantitative studies have been performed to assess such risks, and some reasonable point estimates have been proposed. However, since consequential asteroid impacts tend to be rare events, point estimates and expected annual death rates do not adequately convey the heavy tail of the distribution, potentially leading to misguided resource allocations. We propose and develop a framework for new risk measures, including a distribution over the number of fatalities from asteroid impacts and the probability of a globally consequential impact. We implement a simulation of asteroid impacts using probabilistic inputs for impactor characteristics, and a Poisson process for asteroid arrivals over the next 100 years. Simulation results indicate that a significant portion of the risk to humans comes from asteroids in the 300-1000 meter diameter range; this is because asteroid impacts in this range can produce global effects, and are more frequent than those from asteroids greater than 1km in diameter. The relative importance of this size regime in overall asteroid impact risk is robust in simulation results, and we find the magnitude of risks is still sensitive to factors that contribute global effects from an asteroid impact. Initial results are provided on the sensitivity of impact risks to various mitigation measures, including 'civil defense' methods. These results underscore the need for next-generation survey missions, and can help provide the basis for setting future space telescope observation requirements.

  1. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, N.; Qiu, Y.; Gan, H.; Niu, C.; Liu, J.; Gan, Y.; Zhou, N.

    2014-09-01

    Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG). The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  2. Using a signal cancellation technique involving impulse response to assess directivity of hearing aids.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yu-Hsiang; Bentler, Ruth A

    2009-12-01

    The directional microphone systems of modern digital hearing aids are capable of changing their spatial directivity pattern and/or the microphone mode in response to changes in the properties of environmental sounds. These adaptive/automatic features make measurement of a hearing aid's directivity in a given test environment very difficult. Assessing the directivity of such systems requires a signal that can record the system's response while not changing the system's directivity. This paper proposes a method using a signal cancellation technique involving impulse responses to acoustically assess a hearing aid's directivity (referred to as the IR method). The impulse is presumed to be undetectable to the adaptive/automatic system because it contains little energy and a short response could be recorded before the system actually reacts. In the current study, the IR method was evaluated by testing five adaptive/automatic directional hearing aids in noise of various intensities. The results revealed that the IR method was an accurate and repeatable way to assess slow-acting directional systems in noise of varying intensities and fast-acting systems in noise of high intensities. PMID:20000935

  3. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  4. A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

    PubMed

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions. PMID:21499931

  5. A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

  6. Interventions and Patterns of Risk in Adolescent HIV/AIDS Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Malow, Robert M.; Rosenberg, Rhonda; Donenberg, Geri; Dévieux, Jessy G.

    2007-01-01

    Mid-way through the third decade of experience in preventing HIV/AIDS among adolescents, behavioral interventions and outcomes for high risk subgroups have generated evidence extremely instructive for navigating future priorities in reducing transmission risk behavior. Youth who abuse alcohol or drugs, who are detained or incarcerated, or have mental health co-morbidity such as externalizing disorders, represent the most significant challenge to current and future efforts to control the epidemic among the adolescent population. Although there is no unambiguous, standard intervention approach with adolescents, patterns of risks and outcomes with these subgroups are instructive in the critical priority of creating more sustainable gains with our HIV prevention resources. This article provides a synthesis of the evidence with these subgroups, discusses important limitations and difficulties in the current intervention science and highlights promising directions for the next generation of effort in reducing adolescent HIV-related sexual risk behavior. Because individual-level interventions have had only modest effects, a key current emphasis within the field is to develop multilevel interventions with a more ecological or contextual focus. We review various pragmatic responses that acknowledge this priority and the debt owed to individual-level intervention work with adolescents. PMID:19088859

  7. Quantitative risk assessment of durable glass fibers.

    PubMed

    Fayerweather, William E; Eastes, Walter; Cereghini, Francesco; Hadley, John G

    2002-06-01

    This article presents a quantitative risk assessment for the theoretical lifetime cancer risk from the manufacture and use of relatively durable synthetic glass fibers. More specifically, we estimate levels of exposure to respirable fibers or fiberlike structures of E-glass and C-glass that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, pose a theoretical lifetime cancer risk of not more than 1 per 100,000. For comparability with other risk assessments we define these levels as nonsignificant exposures. Nonsignificant exposure levels are estimated from (a) the Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E-glass microfibers, and (b) the Research Consulting Company (RCC) chronic inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers (RCF). Best estimates of nonsignificant E-glass exposure exceed 0.05-0.13 fibers (or shards) per cubic centimeter (cm3) when calculated from the multistage nonthreshold model. Best estimates of nonsignificant C-glass exposure exceed 0.27-0.6 fibers/cm3. Estimates of nonsignificant exposure increase markedly for E- and C-glass when non-linear models are applied and rapidly exceed 1 fiber/cm3. Controlling durable fiber exposures to an 8-h time-weighted average of 0.05 fibers/cm3 will assure that the additional theoretical lifetime risk from working lifetime exposures to these durable fibers or shards is kept below the 1 per 100,000 level. Measured airborne exposures to respirable, durable glass fibers (or shards) in glass fiber manufacturing and fabrication operations were compared with the nonsignificant exposure estimates described. Sampling results for B-sized respirable E-glass fibers at facilities that manufacture or fabricate small-diameter continuous-filament products, from those that manufacture respirable E-glass shards from PERG (process to efficiently recycle glass), from milled fiber operations, and from respirable C-glass shards from Flakeglass operations indicate very low median exposures of 0

  8. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we provide context for this report

  9. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  10. MECHANISM OF DIOXIN TOXICITY: RELATIONSHIP TO RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk characterization involves hazard identification, determination of dose/response relationships, and exposure assessment. mprovement of the risk assessment process requires inclusion of the best available science. ecent findings in the area of dioxin toxicity have led to a maj...

  11. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  12. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  13. Workshop overview: Arsenic research and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Sams, Reeder Wolf, Douglas C.; Ramasamy, Santhini; Ohanian, Ed; Chen, Jonathan; Lowit, Anna

    2007-08-01

    The chronic exposure of humans through consumption of high levels of inorganic arsenic (iAs)-contaminated drinking water is associated with skin lesions, peripheral vascular disease, hypertension, and cancers. Additionally, humans are exposed to organic arsenicals when used as pesticides and herbicides (e.g., monomethylarsonic acid, dimethylarsinic acid (DMA{sup V}) also known as cacodylic acid). Extensive research has been conducted to characterize the adverse health effects that result from exposure to iAs and its metabolites to describe the biological pathway(s) that lead to adverse health effects. To further this effort, on May 31, 2006, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) sponsored a meeting entitled 'Workshop on Arsenic Research and Risk Assessment'. The invited participants from government agencies, academia, independent research organizations and consultants were asked to present their current research. The overall focus of these research efforts has been to determine the potential human health risks due to environmental exposures to arsenicals. Pursuant in these efforts is the elucidation of a mode of action for arsenicals. This paper provides a brief overview of the workshop goals, regulatory context for arsenical research, mode of action (MOA) analysis in human health risk assessment, and the application of MOA analysis for iAs and DMA{sup V}. Subsequent papers within this issue will present the research discussed at the workshop, ensuing discussions, and conclusions of the workshop.

  14. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:19048472

  15. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  16. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  17. Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

  18. Economic and demographic consequences of AIDS in Namibia: rapid assessment of the costs.

    PubMed

    Ojo, K; Delaney, M

    1997-01-01

    Recent announcements by the Government of Namibia to provide financial support to people living with AIDS (and their family members) have received considerable media attention. However, given the fact that government budgets are already stretched, and the need for resources to devote the prevention efforts remains, there is an urgent need to assign some values to the support the government is considering within the context of an explosive epidemic. It is against this background that this study attempts to provide a rapid assessment of the economic costs of HIV/AIDS in Namibia over the next 5 years of the First National Development Plan. The estimates include the direct and indirect costs. The direct costs are costs to the economy for inpatient and outpatient medical services, as well as the costs of support payments to people living with AIDS, their families and children orphaned by AIDS. Government and donor expenditure on national prevention and control efforts are also included. The study concludes that no sector of the Namibian economy will escape the impact of AIDS. The epidemic will definitely tax hospital, public health, private and community resources, and these substantial burdens underscore the need for coordinated long-term planning. PMID:10177418

  19. Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, R. Karl

    2005-01-01

    Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

  20. Key findings: a qualitative assessment of provider and patient perceptions of HIV/AIDS in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Ransom, James; Johnson, Anton F

    2009-01-01

    In 1997, at the Davos International Economic Forum, Nelson Mandela stated that "the poor, the vulnerable, the unschooled, the socially marginalized, the women, and the children, those who bear the burden of colonial legacy-these are the sectors of society which bear the burden of AIDS" (Richter, 2001). Nearly a decade later, that statement still holds true, especially in Mr. Mandela's home country. South Africa continues to have one of the world's highest prevalence ratios of HIV infection (UNAIDS, 2002). This paper explores the significance of perceptions, knowledge, practices, and attitudes toward HIV/AIDS in two important groups in South Africa: health care providers based in public health clinics and their patients. This paper will assess the provider-patient interaction from the perspective of members of the South African HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention community. The analysis will examine the results of in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with providers and patients, respectively, in two of South Africa's nine provinces. Between December 2002 and April 2003 in Guateng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, we conducted (1) in-depth interviews of a spectrum of health care providers at five local public health clinics and (2) focus groups of patients who patronize those clinics. The results show that there are gaps in the HIV/AIDS knowledge of some of the health care providers and that the participants' health beliefs and practices are embedded in the social conditions in which they live and work, which has a ripple effect on their risk behaviors and trumps any intervention messages from their health care providers and larger public health intervention messages. PMID:19229772

  1. Assessing suicidal risk with antiepileptic drugs

    PubMed Central

    Mula, Marco; Bell, Gail S; Sander, Josemir W

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the US Food and Drug Administration issued an alert about an increased risk for suicidality during treatment with antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) for different indications, including epilepsy. We discuss the issue of suicide in epilepsy with special attention to AEDs and the assessment of suicide in people with epilepsy. It has been suggested that early medical treatment with AEDs might potentially reduce suicide risk of people with epilepsy, but it is of great importance that the choice of drug is tailored to the mental state of the patient. The issue of suicidality in epilepsy is likely to represent an example of how the underdiagnosis of psychiatric symptoms, the lack of input from professionals (eg, psychologists, social workers, and psychiatrists), and the delay in an optimized AED therapy may worsen the prognosis of the condition with the occurrence of severe complications such as suicide. PMID:20957120

  2. Ecological risk assessment of contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Jensen, John; Pedersen, Marianne Bruus

    2006-01-01

    This review has described three cases of ecological risk assessment. The cases include two heavy metals (Cu and Zn) and an anthropogenic organic chemical (DDT). It concludes that there are at least two major constraints hampering the use of laboratory tests to predict effects under natural field conditions. One key issue is bioavailability, and another is suboptimal conditions or multiple stresses in the field such as climatic stress (drought, frost), predators, competition, or food shortage. On the basis of the presented case studies, it was possible to answer three essential questions often raised in connection to ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites. 1. To what extend does soil screening level (SSL) estimate the risk? The SSL are generally derived at levels corresponding to the lowest observed effect levels in laboratory studies, which often is close to the background levels found in many soils. In the cases of zinc and especially DDT, the SSL seemed quite conservative, whereas for copper they resemble the level at which changes in the community structure of soil microarthropods and the plant community have been observed at contaminated sites. The SSL correspond as a whole relatively well with concentrations where no effects or only minor effects were observed in controlled field studies. However, large variation in field surveys can often make it difficult to conclude to what extent the SSL corresponded to no-effect levels in the field. 2. Do bioassays represent a more realistic risk estimate? Here, there is no firm conclusion. The zinc study in UK showed a better relationship between the outcome of ex situ bioassays and field observations than the SSL. The latter overestimated the risk compared to field observations. However, this would be species dependent, as the sensitivity to metals may vary considerably between recognized test species, even within the same group of organisms, such as Folsomia candida and Folsomia fimetaria or Eisenia fetida

  3. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects. PMID:22021317

  4. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W. )

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  5. Suicide risk assessment and risk formulation part II: Suicide risk formulation and the determination of levels of risk.

    PubMed

    Berman, Alan L; Silverman, Morton M

    2014-08-01

    The suicide risk formulation (SRF) is dependent on the data gathered in the suicide risk assessment. The SRF assigns a level of suicide risk that is intended to inform decisions about triage, treatment, management, and preventive interventions. However, there is little published about how to stratify and formulate suicide risk, what are the criteria for assigning levels of risk, and how triage and treatment decisions are correlated with levels of risk. The salient clinical issues that define an SRF are reviewed and modeling is suggested for an SRF that might guide clinical researchers toward the refinement of an SRF process. PMID:24286521

  6. Risk assessment of acrylamide in foods.

    PubMed

    Dybing, E; Sanner, T

    2003-09-01

    Daily mean intakes of acrylamide present in foods and coffee in a limited Norwegian exposure assessment study have been estimated to be 0.49 and 0.46 microg per kg body weight in males and females, respectively. Testicular mesotheliomas and mammary gland adenomas have consistently been found in 2-year drinking water rat cancer studies with acrylamide. Acrylamide also shows initiating activity in mouse skin after systemic administration. Since acrylamide is converted to the mutagenic metabolite glycidamide and forms adducts to hemoglobin in rodents and humans, the tumorigenic endpoints in rats were assumed to be an expression of acrylamide genotoxicity. Using the default linear extrapolation methods LED10 and T25, the lifetime cancer hazard after lifelong exposure to 1 microg acrylamide per kg body weight per day, scaled to humans, was calculated to be, on average, 1.3 x 10-3. Using this hazard level and correlating it with the exposure estimates, a lifetime cancer risk related to daily intake of acrylamide in foods for 70 years in males was calculated to be 0.6 x 10-3, implying that 6 out of 10,000 individuals may develop cancer due to acrylamide. For females, the risk values were slightly lower. It must be emphasized that this risk assessment is conservative. A number of processes may result in nonlinearity of the dose-response relationships for acrylamide carcinogenicity in the low-dose region, including detoxication reactions, cell cycle arrest, DNA repair, apoptosis, and immune surveillance. Thus, the true risk levels related to acrylamide intake may be considerably lower. PMID:12805639

  7. Prevalence of and risk factors for different measures of low back pain among female nursing aides in Taiwanese nursing homes

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Chao-Kang; Chen, Mei-Lien; Mao, I-Fang

    2007-01-01

    Background Although low back pain (LBP) among nursing staff, especially in nursing aides (NAs), has been a major health problem around the world, there is limited information on its prevalence in Taiwan. In addition, various measurements have been used to determine LBP; understanding the risk factors for each measurement of LBP is essential for prevention. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of and risk factors for different measures of LBP among NAs in Taiwan. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among 244 female NAs from 31 nursing homes in central Taiwan. A self-administered questionnaire, including the Nordic questionnaire and the Karasek's job content questionnaire, was used to collect data regarding five different measures of LBP and about demographic, physical and psychosocial factors. Also, on-site observation at the workplace was conducted to measure the frequency of five high risk patient-handling tasks. Results Based on the subjects' reports on the previous twelve months, the prevalence rates for pain lasting for at least one day, seeking of medical care, intense pain, sick leave, and chronic pain were 66.0%, 43.9%, 38.1%, 10.7%, and 8.6%, respectively. While multiple logistic regression analyses indicated that the risk factors varied with different measures of LBP, at least one high risk patient-handling task and one psychosocial factor were observed to be associated each LBP related measure. Three risk factors, including manual transfer of patients between bed/wheelchair and bath cart, perceived physical exertion, and psychological demands, were consistently associated with different measures of LBP. Besides, age was found to be associated with an increased risk of only chronic pain. Conclusion The prevalence of LBP among NAs in Taiwan is high and should be actively addressed. Certain manual patient-transfer tasks and psychological demands seemed to play more important roles in severe LBP (such as care seeking, intense pain, and sick

  8. 75 FR 82387 - Next Generation Risk Assessment Public Dialogue Conference

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-30

    ... AGENCY Next Generation Risk Assessment Public Dialogue Conference AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency... Generation of Risk Assessment'' (NexGen) program, EPA is announcing a 2-day public dialogue conference to... Information About the Conference The landscape of risk assessment is changing rapidly with new advances...

  9. Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Diseases in HIV/AIDS Patients on HAART

    PubMed Central

    Nsagha, Dickson Shey; Assob, Jules Clement Nguedia; Njunda, Anna Longdoh; Tanue, Elvis Asangbeng; Kibu, Odette Dzemo; Ayima, Charlotte Wenze; Ngowe, Marcelin Ngowe

    2015-01-01

    Background : The introduction and widespread use of combination antiretroviral therapy referred to as highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the mid 1990’s, has led HIV-infected individuals to experience a dramatic decline in immunodeficiency-related events and death. There is growing concern on metabolic complications associated with HIV and HAART which may increase cardiovascular risk and disease. The aim of this study was to investigate the cardiovascular risk profile of HIV/AIDS patients receiving HAART and those not receiving HAART at HIV/AIDS treatment centres in the South West Region of Cameroon. Methods : Consenting participants, who had been receiving HAART, were compared with HAART naive participants. A questionnaire was administered; anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were recorded under standard conditions. Blood samples were obtained for the determination of plasma glucose and lipid levels. Results : Two hundred and fifteen participants were recruited, 160 (74.4%) were on HAART and 55 (25.6%) were HAART naive. Among the individual lipid abnormalities, increased total cholesterol was the most prevalent (40.0%). Participants on HAART were significantly about 8 times at risk of developing hypercholesterolemia when compared to the HAART inexperienced group (OR 8.17; 95% CI: 3.31-20.14; p<0.001). Hypertension had a prevalence of 25.6% (95% CI: 15.3%-35.9%) and was about 2 times significantly higher in the HAART treated than the HAART untreated group (p=0.033). The prevalence of low HDL-c was significantly higher in males (24.1%) compared to females (11.2%) (p=0.0196). Many females (27.3%) were obese compared to males (7.4%) (p=0.0043). HAART use and treatment duration of more than five years were significantly associated with higher prevalence of CVD risk factors. Conclusion : HAART treatment was associated with significantly higher prevalence of hypercholesterolemia, increased LDL-c and hypertension, hence the risk of cardiovascular

  10. 76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-27

    ... time to prepare and submit comments on the Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our... assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are also available on the APHIS Web site at http://www.aphis.usda... petition, draft environmental assessment, or plant pest risk assessment, contact Ms. Cindy Eck at (301)...

  11. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  12. Whither risk assessment? An overall perspective.

    PubMed

    Gori, G B

    1993-04-01

    Major regulatory initiatives in health and safety are increasingly viewed as too costly, not objectively justified, and thus failing in their mandate to ensure a fair social distribution of rights and burdens. Official but arbitrary assumptions in cancer risk assessment and open-ended statutory language encourage regulatory agencies to overregulate. Also, institutional self-serving motivations of regulatory agencies add incentives to expand regulation. Mitigation of the current regulatory crisis may come from curbing these selfish incentives, and from requiring that regulation be justified on the basis of strict scientific standards of evidence, rather than on arbitrary assumptions and conjectures. PMID:8484030

  13. Assessing risk of solid waste compost

    SciTech Connect

    Dyer, J.M.; Razvi, A.S. )

    1987-03-01

    This paper addresses the movement of metals in soils and their accumulation in plants. Research with sewage sludge compost indicates that these risks can be minimized with proper handling and management. The objectives of this study were: (I) to evaluate potential groundwater contamination due to plant nutrients and heavy metals in the compost; and (II) to assess the accumulation of metals in plants grown on compost-amended soil. Data are presented for analyses of nickel, lead, cadmium, copper and zinc in snap beans.

  14. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants. PMID:24046097

  15. Prospective study of attitudinal and relationship predictors of sexual risk in the multicenter AIDS cohort study.

    PubMed

    Ostrow, David G; Silverberg, Michael J; Cook, Robert L; Chmiel, Joan S; Johnson, Lisette; Li, Xiuhong; Jacobson, Lisa P

    2008-01-01

    We examined the influence of attitudes concerning HIV transmission, safe sex, and sexual sensation seeking, as well as negotiated risk reduction with primary partners, on the proportion of unprotected sexual partners (%UASP) among men who have sex with men (MSM). Participants were 263 HIV-seropositive and 238 HIV-seronegative MSM in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study between 1999 and 2003 who completed a 20-item attitude survey twice. Behavioral data were collected concurrently and 6-12 months after each survey. Among seropositives, decreased HIV concern and increased safer sex fatigue were associated with higher %UASP at 6 and 12 months. Among seronegatives, increased %UASP at 12 months was associated with safer sex fatigue. At 6 months and 12 months, risk reduction agreements were associated with increased %UASP among seronegatives in seroconcordant monogamous relationships, reflecting their abandonment of condoms in such partnerships. We conclude that HIV prevention efforts should target modifiable attitudes (reduced concern about HIV and safer sex fatigue) and increases in sexual risk-taking of MSM, particularly among HIV+ men having sex with serodiscordant partners. PMID:17410419

  16. Assessment of cardiovascular risks and overall risks for noncardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Chung, O Y; Beattie, C; Friesinger, G C

    1999-02-01

    Appropriate care of the elderly patient requires a concerted multi-disciplinary approach before, during, and after surgery to optimize functional outcomes, with the principal focus placed on improving quality of life and strategies for risk reduction. Perioperative physicians must be able to assess the biologic, not the chronologic, age of geriatric patients and their capacity for independent function. Physicians need to understand alterations in the physiology of elderly patients attributable to the normal aging process as well as the prevalence of concurrent pathologic conditions that necessitate special precautions. Maintaining autonomy and function as a result of an acute surgical intervention may be the most important outcome to the elderly patient. Most of the data available and guidelines promulgated do not specifically address the elderly population. It is important to collect data prospectively and use sophisticated methods for analyses to develop better management algorithms for these (often complicated) clinical issues in the elderly. PMID:10093774

  17. NEUROBEHAVIORAL TESTING IN HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

    PubMed Central

    Rohlman, Diane S.; Lucchini, Roberto; Anger, W. Kent; Bellinger, David C.; van Thriel, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    Neurobehavioral tests are being increasingly used in human risk assessment and there is a strong need for guidance. The field of neurobehavioral toxicology has evolved from research which initially focused on using traditional neuropsychological tests to identify “abnormal cases” to include methods used to detect sub-clinical deficits, to further incorporate the use of neurosensory assessment, and to expand testing from occupational populations to vulnerable populations including older adults and children. Even as exposures in the workplace are reduced, they have been increasing in the environment and research on exposure has now expanded to cross the entire lifetime. These neurobehavioral methods are applied in research and the findings used for regulatory purposes to develop preventative action for exposed populations. This paper reflects a summary of the talks presented at the symposium presented at the 11th meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association. PMID:18539229

  18. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, Glenn W. . E-mail: suter.glenn@epa.gov; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-09-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species.

  19. [Information, attitudes, perceptions, and symbolic representations of AIDS risk and prevention among poor adolescents in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil].

    PubMed

    Merchán-Hamann, E

    1995-01-01

    Four hundred and sixteen poor adolescents of both sexes in Rio de Janeiro were interviewed to study both their level of information and symbolic representations concerning AIDS risk and prevention. The most common source of information on HIV/AIDS was the mass media, particularly television broadcasts. There were doubts and lack of trust regarding official government information on HIV/AIDS. Nearly 70% of the adolescents interviewed believe in HIV transmission through mosquito bites and some 40% through casual contact with wounds or scars or sharing of bathroom utensils. Men seemed to show a greater awareness and autonomy vis- -vis taking initiatives in sex encounters. Attitudes of segregation and exclusion of people with AIDS persist. Lack of prevention was attributed to the impossibility of predicting sexual encounters. The study of symbolic aspects concerning causes of HIV/AIDS displayed broad variability: 80% of the interviewees associated AIDS with excesses in sexual behavior and 40% with homosexual practices. Causal images vary from the predominant view of AIDS as unfair punishment to the less frequent stance considering AIDS as fair punishment (due to sinful behavior). An ambiguous attitude towards transgression (taking as its sterotype the figure of Rio's "malandro", or "streetwise dude") may influence perception of risk and prevention. The paper calls attention to the need for implementing clearer and more direct educational programs. This could be useful for the implementation of culturally sensitive control measures through a reshaping of AIDS symbols. The author recommends a better understanding of the social and economic determinants of disease and reinforcement of the kinds of discourse which empower and raise the self-esteem of poor adolescents by endorsing their civil rights. PMID:12973626

  20. Assessing the impact of international conservation aid on deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bare, Matthew; Kauffman, Craig; Miller, Daniel C.

    2015-12-01

    International conservation donors have spent at least 3.4 billion to protect biodiversity and stem tropical deforestation in Africa since the early 1990s. Despite more than two decades of experience, however, there is little research on the effect of this aid at a region-wide scale. Numerous case studies exist, but show mixed results. Existing research is usually based on community perception or focused on short-term donor objectives rather than specific conservation outcomes, like deforestation rates. Thus, the impact of billions of dollars of conservation aid on deforestation rates remains an open question. This article uses an original dataset to analyze the effect of international conservation aid on deforestation rates in 42 African countries between 2000 and 2013. We first describe patterns of conservation aid across the continent and then assess its impact (with one to five-year lags), controlling for other factors that may also affect deforestation, including rural population, protected areas (PAs), governance, and other economic and commodity production variables. We find that conservation aid is associated with higher rates of forest loss after one- or two-year lags. A similar result holds for PA extent, suggesting possible displacement of deforestation from PAs. However, governance quality in high forest cover countries moderates these effects such that deforestation rates are reduced. Rural population is the most consistent factor associated with forest loss, confirming previous studies of this driver. Our results suggest that in heavily forested countries, development projects designed to support conservation work initially in conditions of good governance, but that conservation aid alone is insufficient to mitigate larger deforestation drivers.

  1. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  2. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  3. The new tapestry of risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Bernard; Cory-Slechta, Deborah; Gilbert, Steven G.; Mergler, Donna; Miller, Elise; Miller, Claudia; Newland, M. Christopher; Rice, Deborah; Schettler, Ted

    2008-01-01

    Neurotoxicology is entering a new phase in how it views and practices risk assessment. Perhaps more than any of the other disciplines that comprise the science of toxicology, it has been compelled to consider a daunting array of factors other than those directly coupled to chemical and dose, and the age and sex of the subject population. In epidemiological investigations, researchers are increasingly cognizant of the problems introduced by allegedly controlling for variables classified as confounders or covariates. In essence, they reason, the consequence is blurring or even concealing interactions of exposure with modifiers such as the individual’s social ecology. Other researchers question the traditional practice of relying on values such as NOAELs when they are abstracted from a biological entity that in reality represents a multiplicity of intertwined systems. Although neurotoxicologists have come to recognize the complexities of assessing risk in all its dimensions, they still face the challenge of communicating this view to the health professions at large. PMID:18501430

  4. Cyanide analyses for risk and treatability assessments

    SciTech Connect

    MacFarlane, I.D.; Elseroad, H.J.; Pergrin, D.E.; Logan, C.M.

    1994-12-31

    Cyanide, an EPA priority pollutant and target analyte, is typically measured as total. However, cyanide complexation, information which is not acquired through total cyanide analysis, is often a driver of cyanide toxicity and treatability. A case study of a former manufacture gas plant (MGP) is used to demonstrate the usability of various cyanide analytical methods for risk and treatability assessments. Several analytical methods, including cyanide amenable to chlorination and weak acid dissociable cyanide help test the degree of cyanide complexation. Generally, free or uncomplexed cyanide is more biologically available, toxic, and reactive than complexed cyanide. Extensive site testing has shown that free and weakly dissociable cyanide composes only a small fraction of total cyanide as would be expected from the literature, and that risk assessment will be more realistic considering cyanide form. Likewise, aqueous treatment for cyanide can be properly tested if cyanide form is accounted for. Weak acid dissociable cyanide analyses proved to be the most reliable (and potentially acceptable) cyanide method, as well as represent the most toxic and reactive cyanide forms.

  5. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersion 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.

  6. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  7. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment for Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betul Demircioglu, Mine; Sesetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-05-01

    Using a GIS-environment to present the results, seismic risk analysis is considered as a helpful tool to support the decision making for planning and prioritizing seismic retrofit intervention programs at large scale. The main ingredients of seismic risk analysis consist of seismic hazard, regional inventory of buildings and vulnerability analysis. In this study, the assessment of the national earthquake hazard based on the NGA ground motion prediction models and the comparisons of the results with the previous models have been considered, respectively. An evaluation of seismic risk based on the probabilistic intensity ground motion prediction for Turkey has been investigated. According to the Macroseismic approach of Giovinazzi and Lagomarsino (2005), two alternative vulnerability models have been used to estimate building damage. The vulnerability and ductility indices for Turkey have been taken from the study of Giovinazzi (2005). These two vulnerability models have been compared with the observed earthquake damage database. A good agreement between curves has been clearly observed. In additional to the building damage, casualty estimations based on three different methods for each return period and for each vulnerability model have been presented to evaluate the earthquake loss. Using three different models of building replacement costs, the average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss ratio (PMLR) due to regional earthquake hazard have been provided to form a basis for the improvement of the parametric insurance model and the determination of premium rates for the compulsory earthquake insurance in Turkey.

  8. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of disassembly procedures

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-10-01

    Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) is an analytic methodology for identifying the combination of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents. Accidents are defined as those events causing loss or injury to people, property, or the environment. PRA also provides a method for estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and the consequences of each accident. The Los Alamos effort for this study is summarized as follows: The focus of the Los Alamos study was on evaluating the risks specifically associated with disassembling a Los Alamos-designed device. The PRA for the disassembly operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of a risk consequence goal for DOE operations. Often called a Level 3 PRA (or PSA), the methods are general and can with a little modification be applied to other procedures or processes.

  9. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  10. Risk Assessment Tool for Estimating Your 10-Year Risk of Having a Heart Attack

    MedlinePlus

    ... Cardiovascular Risk: Systematic Evidence Review from the Risk Assessment Work Group The Evidence Report Full Report Accessible ... MB) Printer-friendly version (2 MB) Study Quality Assessment Tools Clinical Practice Guideline: Developed Under NHLBI Partnership ...

  11. CONFOUNDERS IN INTERPRETING PATHOLOGY FOR SAFETY AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The contribution of pathology assessment to toxicity assessment is invaluable but often not clearly understood. Pathology endpoints are the central response around which human health risk assessment is frequently determined; therefore, it is important that the general toxicology ...

  12. Psychosocial Impact of the AIDS Epidemic on the Lives of Gay Men.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stulberg, Ian; Smith, Margaret

    1988-01-01

    Assessed the psychosocial impact of the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic on the lives of homosexual men (N=301) who had not been diagnosed with AIDS or AIDS Related Complex (ARC). Found subjects reported increasing frequency of no-risk sexual activities and decreased frequency of possible risk and high-risk activities. (ABL)

  13. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  14. Vulnerability and risk perception in the management of HIV/AIDS: Public priorities in a global pandemic

    PubMed Central

    Tsasis, Peter; Nirupama, N.

    2008-01-01

    Understanding the way perception of risk is shaped and constructed is crucial in understanding why it has been so difficult to mitigate the spread of HIV/AIDS. This paper uses the Pressure and Release (PAR) model, used to predict the onset of natural disasters as the conceptual framework. It substitutes vulnerability and risk perception as the trigger factors in the model, in making the case that HIV/AIDS can be characterized as a slow onset disaster. The implications are that vulnerability must be managed and reduced by addressing root causes, dynamic pressures, and unsafe conditions that contribute to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. HIV/AIDS programs must be culturally appropriate and work toward influencing risk perception, while addressing social norms and values that negatively impact vulnerable populations. By impacting cultural and social expectations, individuals will be able to more readily adopt safer sex behaviors. The development of policies and programs addressing the issues in context, as opposed to individual behaviors alone, allows for effective public health intervention. This may have implications for public health measures implemented for combating the spread of HIV/AIDS. PMID:22312198

  15. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  16. Ecological risk assessments for watersheds: Lessons learned from case studies

    SciTech Connect

    Marcy, S.K.M.

    1994-12-31

    The USEPA Office of Water and Risk Assessment Forum are co-sponsoring the development of watershed level ecological risk assessments in Big Darby Creek, OH, Clinch River, VA, Middle Platte River Wetlands, NE, Snake River, ID, and Waquoit Bay Estuary, MA. The case studies are testing the Agency`s Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment at a watershed scale for multiple stressors. During case study development much has been learned about how to apply and modify the principles in the Framework to landscape scale risk assessments. Insights include how to select appropriate assessment endpoints to drive the risk assessment, how to effectively increase involvement by risk management teams, and provide decision opportunities for managers throughout development. The case studies demonstrate diverse ways to conduct watershed risk assessments, and illustrate the importance of multiple risk hypotheses in conceptual models addressing the combined and relative risk of chemical, physical and biological stressors. Issues the case studies highlight include the need for a process to determine when watershed risk assessments are appropriate and at what level of complexity they should be performed, how to increase the use of the ecological risk assessments in management decision-making and how to determine the best risk reduction strategy. An update on the watershed case studies will be provided and the insights and issues stated above, discussed.

  17. Association of Ongoing Drug and Alcohol Use with Non-Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy and Higher Risk of AIDS and Death: Results from ACTG 362

    PubMed Central

    COHN, Susan E.; JIANG, Hongyu; MCCUTCHAN, J. Allen; KOLETAR, Susan L.; MURPHY, Robert L.; ROBERTSON, Kevin R.; DESTMAURICE, Annabelle; CURRIER, Judith S.; WILLIAMS, Paige L.

    2011-01-01

    Drug and alcohol use have been associated with a worse prognosis in short-term and cross-sectional analyses of HIV-infected populations, but longitudinal effects on adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and clinical outcomes in advanced AIDS are less well characterized. We assessed self-reported drug and alcohol use in AIDS patients, and examined their association with non-adherence and death or disease progression in a multicenter observational study. We defined non-adherence as reporting missed ART doses in the 48 hours before study visits. The association between drug use and ART non-adherence was evaluated using repeated measures generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. The association between drug and alcohol use and time to new AIDS diagnosis or death was evaluated via Cox regression models, controlling for covariates including ART adherence. Of 643 participants enrolled between 1997–1999 and followed through 2007, at entry 39% reported ever using cocaine, 24% amphetamines, and 10% heroin. Ongoing drug use during study follow-up was reported by 9% using cocaine, 4% amphetamines, and 1% heroin. Hard drug (cocaine, amphetamines, or heroin) users had 2.1 times higher odds (p=0.001) of ART non-adherence in GEE models and 2.5 times higher risk (p=0.04) of AIDS progression or death in Cox models. Use of hard drugs was attenuated as a risk factor for AIDS progression or death after controlling for non-adherence during follow-up (HR=2.11, p=0.08), but was still suggestive of a possible adherence-independent mechanism of harm. This study highlights the need to continuously screen and treat patients for drug use as a part of ongoing HIV care. PMID:21293986

  18. Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients’ risk perception and leads to better informed decision making. This paper summarises current “best practices” in communication of evidence-based numeric outcomes for developers of patient decision aids (PtDAs) and other health communication tools. Method An expert consensus group of fourteen researchers from North America, Europe, and Australasia identified eleven main issues in risk communication. Two experts for each issue wrote a “state of the art” summary of best evidence, drawing on the PtDA, health, psychological, and broader scientific literature. In addition, commonly used terms were defined and a set of guiding principles and key messages derived from the results. Results The eleven key components of risk communication were: 1) Presenting the chance an event will occur; 2) Presenting changes in numeric outcomes; 3) Outcome estimates for test and screening decisions; 4) Numeric estimates in context and with evaluative labels; 5) Conveying uncertainty; 6) Visual formats; 7) Tailoring estimates; 8) Formats for understanding outcomes over time; 9) Narrative methods for conveying the chance of an event; 10) Important skills for understanding numerical estimates; and 11) Interactive web-based formats. Guiding principles from the evidence summaries advise that risk communication formats should reflect the task required of the user, should always define a relevant reference class (i.e., denominator) over time, should aim to use a consistent format throughout documents, should avoid “1 in x” formats and variable denominators, consider the magnitude of numbers used and the possibility of format bias, and should take into account the numeracy and graph literacy of the audience. Conclusion A substantial and

  19. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  20. Melanoma susceptibility genes and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Marzuka-Alcalá, Alexander; Gabree, Michele Jacobs; Tsao, Hensin

    2014-01-01

    Familial melanoma accounts for approximately a tenth of all melanoma cases. The most commonly known melanoma susceptibility gene is the highly penetrant CDKN2A (p16INK4a) locus, which is transmitted in an autosomal dominant fashion and accounts for approximately 20-50 % of familial melanoma cases. Mutated p16INK4a shows impaired capacity to inhibit the cyclin D1-CDK4 complex, allowing for unchecked cell cycle progression. Mutations in the second protein coded by CDKN2A, p14ARF, are much less common and result in proteasomal degradation of p53 with subsequent accumulation of DNA damage as the cell progresses through the cell cycle without a functional p53-mediated DNA damage response. Mutations in CDK4 that impair the inhibitory interaction with p16INK4a also increase melanoma risk but these mutations are extremely rare. Genes of the melanin biosynthetic pathway, including MC1R and MITF, have also been implicated in melanomagenesis. MC1R variants were traditionally thought to increase risk for melanoma secondary to intensified UV-mediated DNA damage in the setting of absent photoprotective eumelanin. Accumulation of pheomelanin, which appears to have a carcinogenic effect regardless of UV exposure, may be a more likely mechanism. Impaired SUMOylation of the E318K variant of MITF results in increased transcription of genes that confer melanocytes with a pro-malignant phenotype. Mutations in the tumor suppressor BAP1 enhance the metastatic potential of uveal melanoma and predispose to cutaneous/ocular melanoma, atypical melanocytic tumors, and other internal malignancies (COMMON syndrome). Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous low-risk alleles. Although several melanoma susceptibility genes have been identified, risk assessment tools have been developed only for the most common gene implicated with hereditary melanoma, CDKN2A. MelaPRO, a validated model that relies on Mendelian inheritance and Bayesian probability theories, estimates carrier