Science.gov

Sample records for aid risk assessment

  1. Women at risk: an AIDS educational needs assessment.

    PubMed

    Williams, A B

    1991-01-01

    In order to acquire the information nurses need to develop education and support programs for women at risk for Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), a qualitative needs assessment of women at risk was conducted. Interviews were conducted with 21 women who were at risk for AIDS through their own injection drug use or as the heterosexual partners of injection drug users. Results were analyzed using the variables of the Health Belief Model, including the concept of self-efficacy. The perception of AIDS as a serious and a personal health threat motivated these women to practice both "safe sex" and "safe drug use." However, they did not always believe that recommended health behaviors would be effective; and they noted significant costs associated with these behaviors. In addition, the impact of AIDS was seen to be a heightening of the isolation and mistrust which were characteristic of the injection drug using community before the epidemic. AIDS programs for women at risk should facilitate discussion of social and community issues and should emphasize hope rather than fear.

  2. Assessment of AIDS Risk among Treatment Seeking Drug Abusers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Black, John L.; And Others

    Intravenous (IV) drug abusers are at risk for contracting transmittable diseases such as acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and hepatitis B. This study was conducted to investigate the prevalence of risk behaviors for acquiring and transmitting AIDS and hepatitis B among treatment-seeking drug abusers (N=168). Subjects participated in a…

  3. Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield Risk Management of Adenocarcinoma: The Future of Imaging?

    PubMed

    Foley, Finbar; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Boland, Jennifer M; Karwoski, Ronald A; Maldonado, Fabien; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy. PMID:27568149

  4. Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield Risk Management of Adenocarcinoma: The Future of Imaging?

    PubMed

    Foley, Finbar; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Boland, Jennifer M; Karwoski, Ronald A; Maldonado, Fabien; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy.

  5. Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology

    SciTech Connect

    Mattison, D.R.; Jelovsek, F.R.

    1987-12-01

    A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approaches that are formally capable of using biologically relevant information (pharmacokinetics and expert system shells) are explored as aids to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

  6. The DANGERTOME Personal Risk Threat Assessment Scale: An Instrument to Help Aid Immediate Threat Assessment for Counselors, Faculty, and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Juhnke, Gerald A.

    2010-01-01

    Threats of violence are not uncommon to counselors, faculty, or teachers. Each must be taken seriously, quickly analyzed, and safety procedures implemented. Yet, there exists a paucity of brief, face-to-face, assessments designed to aid threat assessment. To address this paucity, the author created The DANGERTOME Personal Risk Threat Assessment…

  7. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  8. Predicting pathogen risks to aid beach management: the real value of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    There has been an ongoing dilemma for agencies who set criteria for safe recreational waters in how to provide for a seasonal assessment of a beach site versus guidance for day-to-day management. Typically an overall 'safe' criterion level is derived from epidemiologic studies o...

  9. Women Living with HIV in Rural Areas. Implementing a Response using the HIV and AIDS Risk Assessment and Reduction Model

    PubMed Central

    Bandali, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    The global fight against HIV is progressing; however, women living in rural areas particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continue to face the devastating consequences of HIV and AIDS. Lack of knowledge and geographical barriers to HIV services are compounded by gender norms often limiting the negotiation of safe sexual practices among women living in rural areas. This paper discusses findings from a qualitative study conducted in rural areas of Mozambique examining factors that influenced women to engage in HIV risk-reduction practices. The findings from this study led to the emergence of an HIV and AIDS risk assessment and reduction (HARAR) model, which is described in detail. The model helps in understanding gender-related factors influencing men and women to engage in risk-reduction practices, which can be used as a framework in other settings to design more nuanced and contextual policies and programs. PMID:25089093

  10. Interactive Voice Response Self-Monitoring to Assess Risk Behaviors in Rural Substance Users Living with HIV/AIDS

    PubMed Central

    Tucker, Jalie A.; Blum, Elizabeth R.; Xie, Lili; Roth, David L.; Simpson, Cathy A.

    2011-01-01

    Community-dwelling HIV/AIDS patients in rural Alabama self-monitored (SM) daily HIV risk behaviors using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system, which may enhance reporting, reduce monitored behaviors, and extend the reach of care. Sexually active substance users (35 men, 19 women) engaged in IVR SM of sex, substance use, and surrounding contexts for 4–10 weeks. Baseline predictors of IVR utilization were assessed, and longitudinal IVR SM effects on risk behaviors were examined. Frequent (n = 22), infrequent (n = 22), and non-caller (n = 10) groups were analyzed. Non-callers had shorter durations of HIV medical care and lower safer sex self-efficacy and tended to be older heterosexuals. Among callers, frequent callers had lost less social support. Longitudinal logistic regression models indicated reductions in risky sex and drug use with IVR SM over time. IVR systems appear to have utility for risk assessment and reduction for rural populations living with HIV disease. PMID:21311964

  11. Mechanistic insights aid the search for CFC substitutes: risk assessment of HCFC-123 as an example.

    PubMed

    Jarabek, A M; Fisher, J W; Rubenstein, R; Lipscomb, J C; Williams, R J; Vinegar, A; McDougal, J N

    1994-06-01

    An international consensus on the need to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting gases such as the halons led to the adoptions of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and Title VI of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, "Protecting Stratospheric Ozone." These agreements included major provisions for reducing and eventually phasing out production and use of CFCs and halons as well as advancing the development of replacement chemicals. Because of the ubiquitous use and benefits of CFCs and halons, an expeditious search for safe replacements to meet the legislative deadlines is of critical importance. Toxicity testing and health risk assessment programs were established to evaluate the health and environmental impact of these replacement chemicals. Development and implementation of these programs as well as the structural-activity relationships significant for the development of the replacement chemicals are described below. A dose-response evaluation for the health risk assessment of the replacement chemical HCFC-123 (2,2-dichloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) is also presented to show an innovative use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. This is based on a parallelogram approach using data on the anesthetic gas halothane, a structural analog to HCFC-123. Halothane and HCFC-123 both form the same metabolite, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), indicative of the same metabolic oxidative pathway attributed to hepatotoxicity. The parallelogram approach demonstrates the application of template model structures and shows how PBPK modeling, together with judicious experimental design, can be used to improve the accuracy of health risk assessment and to decrease the need for extensive laboratory animal testing.

  12. Mechanistic insights aid the search for CFC substitutes: risk assessment of HCFC-123 as an example.

    PubMed

    Jarabek, A M; Fisher, J W; Rubenstein, R; Lipscomb, J C; Williams, R J; Vinegar, A; McDougal, J N

    1994-06-01

    An international consensus on the need to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting gases such as the halons led to the adoptions of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and Title VI of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, "Protecting Stratospheric Ozone." These agreements included major provisions for reducing and eventually phasing out production and use of CFCs and halons as well as advancing the development of replacement chemicals. Because of the ubiquitous use and benefits of CFCs and halons, an expeditious search for safe replacements to meet the legislative deadlines is of critical importance. Toxicity testing and health risk assessment programs were established to evaluate the health and environmental impact of these replacement chemicals. Development and implementation of these programs as well as the structural-activity relationships significant for the development of the replacement chemicals are described below. A dose-response evaluation for the health risk assessment of the replacement chemical HCFC-123 (2,2-dichloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) is also presented to show an innovative use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. This is based on a parallelogram approach using data on the anesthetic gas halothane, a structural analog to HCFC-123. Halothane and HCFC-123 both form the same metabolite, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), indicative of the same metabolic oxidative pathway attributed to hepatotoxicity. The parallelogram approach demonstrates the application of template model structures and shows how PBPK modeling, together with judicious experimental design, can be used to improve the accuracy of health risk assessment and to decrease the need for extensive laboratory animal testing. PMID:8029495

  13. "Hippocrates-mst": a prototype for computer-aided microcalcification analysis and risk assessment for breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Spyrou, George; Kapsimalakou, Smaragda; Frigas, Antonis; Koufopoulos, Konstantinos; Vassilaros, Stamatios; Ligomenides, Panos

    2006-11-01

    One of the most common cancer types among women is breast cancer. Regular mammographic examinations increase the possibility for early diagnosis and treatment and significantly improve the chance of survival for patients with breast cancer. Clustered microcalcifications have been considered as important indicators of the presence of breast cancer. We present "Hippocrates-mst", a prototype system for computer-aided risk assessment of breast cancer. Our research has been focused in developing software to locate microcalcifications on X-ray mammography images, quantify their critical features and classify them according to their probability of being cancerous. A total of 260 cases (187 benign and 73 malignant) have been examined and the performance of the prototype is presented through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The system is showing high levels of sensitivity identifying correctly 98.63% of malignant cases.

  14. Formative Assessment using Computer-Aided Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lawson, Duncan

    1999-01-01

    Describes how computer-aided assessment can provide a means of preserving formative assessment within the curriculum at a fraction of the time-cost involved with written work. Illustrates a variety of computer-aided assessment styles. (Author/ASK)

  15. A computer-aided system for malignancy risk assessment of nodules in thyroid US images based on boundary features.

    PubMed

    Savelonas, Michalis; Maroulis, Dimitris; Sangriotis, Manolis

    2009-10-01

    In this paper, a novel computer-based approach is proposed for malignancy risk assessment of thyroid nodules in ultrasound images. The proposed approach is based on boundary features and is motivated by the correlation which has been addressed in medical literature between nodule boundary irregularity and malignancy risk. In addition, local echogenicity variance is utilized so as to incorporate information associated with local echogenicity distribution within nodule boundary neighborhood. Such information is valuable for the discrimination of high-risk nodules with blurred boundaries from medium-risk nodules with regular boundaries. Analysis of variance is performed, indicating that each boundary feature under study provides statistically significant information for the discrimination of thyroid nodules in ultrasound images, in terms of malignancy risk. k-nearest neighbor and support vector machine classifiers are employed for the classification tasks, utilizing feature vectors derived from all combinations of features under study. The classification results are evaluated with the use of the receiver operating characteristic. It is derived that the proposed approach is capable of discriminating between medium-risk and high-risk nodules, obtaining an area under curve, which reaches 0.95.

  16. Behavioral Intervention to Reduce AIDS Risk Activities.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Jeffrey A.; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Randomly assigned homosexual men (N=104) with history of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) risk behavior to experimental and control groups. Experimentals received AIDS risk education, cognitive-behavioral self-management training, sexual assertion training, and social support development training. Experimentals greatly reduced frequency…

  17. Behavioral Risk Factors for AIDS among Adolescents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Millstein, Susan G.

    This document examines the incidence of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) among adolescents in the United States and identifies several risk factors for AIDS among this population. It classifies adolescents' risk for contracting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection by the degree to which adolescents engage in behaviors that are…

  18. American Indian gay, bisexual and two-spirit men: a rapid assessment of HIV/AIDS risk factors, barriers to prevention and culturally-sensitive intervention.

    PubMed

    Burks, Derek J; Robbins, Rockey; Durtschi, Jayson P

    2011-03-01

    Epidemiological data indicate that HIV and AIDS are disproportionately affecting American Indians. Specific to American Indian men identifying as gay, bisexual, two-spirit or who have same-sex experiences, this study assessed HIV-risk behaviours and barriers to testing, prevention and treatment efforts. A rapid assessment model was utilised as an indigenous-supporting research design. Rigour and thoroughness were achieved via multiple validation procedures. Central themes surrounding barriers to HIV prevention included social discrimination, low self-esteem and substance use. Findings suggest the underutilisation of condoms due to ineffective placement and limited availability in popular locations among gay, bisexual and two-spirit individuals. Participants indicated that HIV testing is occurring less frequently and that testing was not available after hours or weekends. Barriers to treatment included a mistrust of the current healthcare system, a perceived lack of support from the Indian Health Service for AIDS care and a lack of transportation to healthcare appointments. Lastly, participants discussed and supported culturally-sensitive treatment services. This study calls attention to the value of an American Indian-specific HIV/AIDS service organisation, the presence of indigenous service providers in the community and culturally-sensitive healthcare providers. PMID:21049311

  19. Fracture risk assessment: improved evaluation of vertebral integrity among metastatic cancer patients to aid in surgical decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Augustine, Kurt E.; Camp, Jon J.; Holmes, David R.; Huddleston, Paul M.; Lu, Lichun; Yaszemski, Michael J.; Robb, Richard A.

    2012-03-01

    Failure of the spine's structural integrity from metastatic disease can lead to both pain and neurologic deficit. Fractures that require treatment occur in over 30% of bony metastases. Our objective is to use computed tomography (CT) in conjunction with analytic techniques that have been previously developed to predict fracture risk in cancer patients with metastatic disease to the spine. Current clinical practice for cancer patients with spine metastasis often requires an empirical decision regarding spinal reconstructive surgery. Early image-based software systems used for CT analysis are time consuming and poorly suited for clinical application. The Biomedical Image Resource (BIR) at Mayo Clinic, Rochester has developed an image analysis computer program that calculates from CT scans, the residual load-bearing capacity in a vertebra with metastatic cancer. The Spine Cancer Assessment (SCA) program is built on a platform designed for clinical practice, with a workflow format that allows for rapid selection of patient CT exams, followed by guided image analysis tasks, resulting in a fracture risk report. The analysis features allow the surgeon to quickly isolate a single vertebra and obtain an immediate pre-surgical multiple parallel section composite beam fracture risk analysis based on algorithms developed at Mayo Clinic. The analysis software is undergoing clinical validation studies. We expect this approach will facilitate patient management and utilization of reliable guidelines for selecting among various treatment option based on fracture risk.

  20. Mechanistic insights aid the search for CFC substitutes: Risk assessment of HCFC-123 as an example. [CFC (chlorofluorocarbons)

    SciTech Connect

    Jarabek, A.M. ); Fisher, J.W.; Lipscomb, J.C.; Williams, R.J.; McDougal, J.N. ); Rubenstein, R. ); Vinegar, A. )

    1994-06-01

    An international consensus on the need to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting gases such as the halons led to the adoptions of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and Title VI of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, [open quotes]Protecting Stratospheric Ozone.[close quotes] These agreements included major provisions for reducing and eventually phasing out production and use of CFCs and halons as well as advancing the development of replacement chemicals. Because of the ubiquitous use and benefits of CFCs and halons, and expeditious search for safe replacements to meet the legislative deadlines is of critical importance. Toxicity testing and health risk assessment programs were established to evaluate the health and environmental impact of these replacement chemicals. Development and implementation of these programs as well as the structural-activity relationships significant for the development of the replacement chemicals are described below. A dose-response evaluation for the health risk assessment of the replacement chemical HCFC-123 (2,2-dichloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) is also presented to show an innovative use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. This is based on a parallelogram approach using data on the anesthetic gas halothane, a structural analog to HCFC-123. Halothane and HCFC-123 both form the same metabolite, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), indicative of the same metabolic oxidative pathway attributed to hepatotoxicity. The parallelogram approach demonstrates the application of template model structures and shows how PBPK modeling, together with judicious experimental design, can be used to improve the accuracy of health risk assessment and to decrease the need for extensive laboratory animal testing. 53 refs., 9 figs., 14 tabs.

  1. Perceived Risk of AIDS among Prisoners Following Educational Intervention.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    West, Angela D.; Martin, Randy

    2000-01-01

    Assesses the impact of an AIDS education program on inmates' (N=140) perceived risk of HIV infection on the street and in prison. Results reveal that the men's perceived risk declined significantly, whereas the women's increased. Regression analyses indicated that change in perceptions was related to various variables outside of the prison's…

  2. Global and local health burden trade-off through the hybridisation of quantitative microbial risk assessment and life cycle assessment to aid water management.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yumi; Peters, Greg M; Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Khan, Stuart J

    2015-08-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) are commonly used to evaluate potential human health impacts associated with proposed or existing infrastructure and products. Each approach has a distinct objective and, consequently, their conclusions may be inconsistent or contradictory. It is proposed that the integration of elements of QRA and LCA may provide a more holistic approach to health impact assessment. Here we examine the possibility of merging LCA assessed human health impacts with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for waterborne pathogen impacts, expressed with the common health metric, disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The example of a recent large-scale water recycling project in Sydney, Australia was used to identify and demonstrate the potential advantages and current limitations of this approach. A comparative analysis of two scenarios - with and without the development of this project - was undertaken for this purpose. LCA and QMRA were carried out independently for the two scenarios to compare human health impacts, as measured by DALYs lost per year. LCA results suggested that construction of the project would lead to an increased number of DALYs lost per year, while estimated disease burden resulting from microbial exposures indicated that it would result in the loss of fewer DALYs per year than the alternative scenario. By merging the results of the LCA and QMRA, we demonstrate the advantages in providing a more comprehensive assessment of human disease burden for the two scenarios, in particular, the importance of considering the results of both LCA and QRA in a comparative assessment of decision alternatives to avoid problem shifting. The application of DALYs as a common measure between the two approaches was found to be useful for this purpose.

  3. Global and local health burden trade-off through the hybridisation of quantitative microbial risk assessment and life cycle assessment to aid water management.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yumi; Peters, Greg M; Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Khan, Stuart J

    2015-08-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) are commonly used to evaluate potential human health impacts associated with proposed or existing infrastructure and products. Each approach has a distinct objective and, consequently, their conclusions may be inconsistent or contradictory. It is proposed that the integration of elements of QRA and LCA may provide a more holistic approach to health impact assessment. Here we examine the possibility of merging LCA assessed human health impacts with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for waterborne pathogen impacts, expressed with the common health metric, disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The example of a recent large-scale water recycling project in Sydney, Australia was used to identify and demonstrate the potential advantages and current limitations of this approach. A comparative analysis of two scenarios - with and without the development of this project - was undertaken for this purpose. LCA and QMRA were carried out independently for the two scenarios to compare human health impacts, as measured by DALYs lost per year. LCA results suggested that construction of the project would lead to an increased number of DALYs lost per year, while estimated disease burden resulting from microbial exposures indicated that it would result in the loss of fewer DALYs per year than the alternative scenario. By merging the results of the LCA and QMRA, we demonstrate the advantages in providing a more comprehensive assessment of human disease burden for the two scenarios, in particular, the importance of considering the results of both LCA and QRA in a comparative assessment of decision alternatives to avoid problem shifting. The application of DALYs as a common measure between the two approaches was found to be useful for this purpose. PMID:25965885

  4. Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elliott, Luisa M.; Mason, David C.; Allainguillaume, Joel; Wilkinson, Mike J.

    2009-11-01

    High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modeling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

  5. Fear of AIDS and Risk Reduction among Heroin-Addicted Female Street Prostitutes: Personal Interviews with 72 Southern California Subjects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bellis, David J.

    1990-01-01

    Interviewed 72 heroin-addicted female street prostitutes and assessed fear of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), AIDS risk reduction behavior, and prostitutes' recommendations for AIDS risk reduction programs. Self-reported data showed that, although subjects were afraid of AIDS, irrationality produced by addiction compelled risky…

  6. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Mozambique.

    PubMed

    1996-12-01

    Mozambique's National STD/AIDS Control Program (NACP) estimates that, at present, about 8% of the population is infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The epidemic is expected to peak in 1997. By 2001, Mozambique is projected to have 1,650,000 HIV-positive adults 15-49 years of age, of whom 500,000 will have developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and 500,000 AIDS orphans. Incidence rates are highest in the country's central region, the transport corridors, and urban centers. The rapid spread of HIV has been facilitated by extreme poverty, the social upheaval and erosion of traditional norms created by years of political conflict and civil war, destruction of the primary health care infrastructure, growth of the commercial sex work trade, and labor migration to and from neighboring countries with high HIV prevalence. Moreover, about 10% of the adult population suffers from sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including genital ulcers. NACP, created in 1988, is attempting to curb the further spread of HIV through education aimed at changing high-risk behaviors and condom distribution to prevent STD transmission. Theater performances and radio/television programs are used to reach the large illiterate population. The integration of sex education and STD/AIDS information in the curricula of primary and secondary schools and universities has been approved by the Ministry of Education. Several private companies have been persuaded to distribute condoms to their employees. Finally, the confidentiality of HIV patients has been guaranteed. In 1993, the total AIDS budget was US $1.67 million, 50% of which was provided by the European Union. The European Commission seeks to develop a national strategy for managing STDs within the primary health care system.

  7. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Mozambique.

    PubMed

    1996-12-01

    Mozambique's National STD/AIDS Control Program (NACP) estimates that, at present, about 8% of the population is infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The epidemic is expected to peak in 1997. By 2001, Mozambique is projected to have 1,650,000 HIV-positive adults 15-49 years of age, of whom 500,000 will have developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and 500,000 AIDS orphans. Incidence rates are highest in the country's central region, the transport corridors, and urban centers. The rapid spread of HIV has been facilitated by extreme poverty, the social upheaval and erosion of traditional norms created by years of political conflict and civil war, destruction of the primary health care infrastructure, growth of the commercial sex work trade, and labor migration to and from neighboring countries with high HIV prevalence. Moreover, about 10% of the adult population suffers from sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including genital ulcers. NACP, created in 1988, is attempting to curb the further spread of HIV through education aimed at changing high-risk behaviors and condom distribution to prevent STD transmission. Theater performances and radio/television programs are used to reach the large illiterate population. The integration of sex education and STD/AIDS information in the curricula of primary and secondary schools and universities has been approved by the Ministry of Education. Several private companies have been persuaded to distribute condoms to their employees. Finally, the confidentiality of HIV patients has been guaranteed. In 1993, the total AIDS budget was US $1.67 million, 50% of which was provided by the European Union. The European Commission seeks to develop a national strategy for managing STDs within the primary health care system. PMID:12320532

  8. Targeting the audience for AIDS messages by actual and perceived risk.

    PubMed

    Snyder, L B; Rouse, R A

    1992-01-01

    Since there are many ways to segment an audience into target groups, we suggest that a productive strategy for AIDS education is to divide the audience by their actual and perceived risk. We provide an example in which we segmented an urban U.S. sample and make suggestions as to how messages appropriate for each group can be constructed. In our sample, the "unthreatened" accurately assessed their low risk of AIDS, and showed high knowledge and tolerance rates. The "panicked," who included more women and Hispanics, inaccurately thought themselves at high risk because of misunderstandings about the causes of AIDS, and showed more intolerance of people with AIDS. "Deniers" continued to have multiple sexual partners and take precautions irregularly, despite seeing AIDS as a social problem and having more education and AIDS knowledge. In contrast, "gamblers" recognized their higher risk of AIDS and were most likely to have taken some action, although not enough to prevent sexual transmission of the HIV virus.

  9. [AIDS: patients' rights, professional risks, preventive measures].

    PubMed

    Dionne-Proulx, J

    1994-11-01

    AIDS in the workplace poses distinct professional risks to health care providers. Identifying HIV carriers and providing specific preventive measures are not the only concerns. Societal prejudices that degenerate into attitudes and behaviors contrary to professional ethics can overwhelm nursing personnel. Their fears can lead them to make irrational decisions such as refusing to care for the client or divulging private information. The author emphasizes that nurses caring for clients with HIV or AIDS should develop a care approach based on two pivotal points. The first point is that nurses must ensure these clients receive appropriate care and that their fundamental rights are maintained. Secondly, nurses must be permitted to provide necessary care without exposing themselves to any associated health risk. The author asserts that nurses must count on complete, clear and accurate information about professional risks and preventative measures. She outlines the legal framework Canadian nurses can access and explains the legal protection available to health care providers. The development of clear and precise workplace policies based on provincial and federal laws can reduce crisis situations, workplace conflict and discrimination.

  10. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  11. Downgrading BIRADS 3 to BIRADS 2 category using a computer-aided microcalcification analysis and risk assessment system for early breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Giannakopoulou, Georgia; Spyrou, George M; Antaraki, Argyro; Andreadis, Ioannis; Koulocheri, Dimitra; Zagouri, Flora; Nonni, Afroditi; Filippakis, George M; Nikita, Konstantina S; Ligomenides, Panos A; Zografos, George C

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential of a computer-aided diagnosis system to discriminate the real benign microcalcifications among a specific subset of 109 patients with BIRADS 3 mammograms who had undergone biopsy, thus making it possible to downgrade them to BIRADS 2 category. The system detected and quantified critical features of microcalcifications and classified them on a risk percentage scale for malignancy. The system successfully detected all cancers. Nevertheless, it suggested biopsy for 11/15 atypical lesions. Finally, the system characterized as definitely benign (BIRADS 2) 29/88 benign lesions, previously assigned to BIRADS 3, and thus achieved a reduction of 33% in unnecessary biopsies.

  12. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  13. Will Schools Risk Teaching about the Risk of AIDS?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Unks, Gerald

    1996-01-01

    Discusses schools and current AIDS education; facts about AIDS; teaching about behavioral change; the use of condoms; an AIDS awareness curriculum; HIV/AIDS awareness and sex education; and HIV/AIDS awareness and democratic schooling. (SR)

  14. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  15. Assessing the binocular advantage in aided vision.

    PubMed

    Harrington, Lawrence K; McIntire, John P; Hopper, Darrel G

    2014-09-01

    Advances in microsensors, microprocessors, and microdisplays are creating new opportunities for improving vision in degraded environments through the use of head-mounted displays. Initially, the cutting-edge technology used in these new displays will be expensive. Inevitably, the cost of providing the additional sensor and processing required to support binocularity brings the value of binocularity into question. Several assessments comparing binocular, binocular, and monocular head-mounted displays for aided vision have concluded that the additional performance, if any, provided by binocular head-mounted displays does not justify the cost. The selection of a biocular [corrected] display for use in the F-35 is a current example of this recurring decision process. It is possible that the human binocularity advantage does not carry over to the aided vision application, but more likely the experimental approaches used in the past have been too coarse to measure its subtle but important benefits. Evaluating the value of binocularity in aided vision applications requires an understanding of the characteristics of both human vision and head-mounted displays. With this understanding, the value of binocularity in aided vision can be estimated and experimental evidence can be collected to confirm or reject the presumed binocular advantage, enabling improved decisions in aided vision system design. This paper describes four computational approaches-geometry of stereopsis, modulation transfer function area for stereopsis, probability summation, and binocular summation-that may be useful in quantifying the advantage of binocularity in aided vision.

  16. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries. PMID:19009454

  17. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  18. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  19. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  20. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  1. High School Students' Knowledge of HIV/AIDS and Perceived Risk of Currently Having AIDS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DuRant, Robert H.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Study examined factors associated with adolescents' knowledge of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and perceived risk of human immunodeficiency infection (HIV). Results of a health risk survey indicated that minority youth, particularly IV drug users, had the most need of intensive, specialized HIV/AIDS education. (SM)

  2. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  3. Impact of marriage on HIV/AIDS risk behaviors among impoverished, at-risk couples: a multilevel latent variable approach.

    PubMed

    Stein, Judith A; Nyamathi, Adeline; Ullman, Jodie B; Bentler, Peter M

    2007-01-01

    Studies among normative samples generally demonstrate a positive impact of marriage on health behaviors and other related attitudes. In this study, we examine the impact of marriage on HIV/AIDS risk behaviors and attitudes among impoverished, highly stressed, homeless couples, many with severe substance abuse problems. A multilevel analysis of 368 high-risk sexually intimate married and unmarried heterosexual couples assessed individual and couple-level effects on social support, substance use problems, HIV/AIDS knowledge, perceived HIV/AIDS risk, needle-sharing, condom use, multiple sex partners, and HIV/AIDS testing. More variance was explained in the protective and risk variables by couple-level latent variable predictors than by individual latent variable predictors, although some gender effects were found (e.g., more alcohol problems among men). The couple-level variable of marriage predicted lower perceived risk, less deviant social support, and fewer sex partners but predicted more needle-sharing.

  4. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  5. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  6. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  7. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Senegal.

    PubMed

    1996-12-01

    Since the first acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) case was confirmed in 1986, Senegal has conducted an aggressive prevention campaign. Senegal's National AIDS Committee has noted the contributions of poverty and migration to the spread of AIDS. By June 1994, 1297 AIDS cases had been reported and an estimated 500,000 people (1.4% of the population) were infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 and 2. The highest rate of HIV infection (14%) exists among commercial sex workers. At present, HIV/AIDS cases are concentrated in Dakar, Kaolack, the Matam region, and Ziguinchor; however, the growing importance of inter-regional trading is expected to spread HIV to the smaller towns and rural areas. Also salient is the recent devaluation by 50% of the CFA franc, which has reduced the public sector workforce and led many poor urban residents into commercial sex work. CFA devaluation has made Senegal attractive to tourists and business visitors--another factor responsible for growth of the legalized commercial sex industry. Although sex workers are instructed in condom use and tested annually for HIV, only 850 of the 2000 registered sex workers have reported for check-ups, and the majority of prostitutes are unregistered. Senegal's AIDS Plan for 1994-98 focuses on care of AIDS patients, pressures placed on family structures by HIV, and AIDS-related erosions in the status of women. Each health service region has its own local plan for AIDS/HIV and sexually transmitted diseases, supervised by a regional committee. Public education has involved outreach to religious leaders, promotion of affordable condoms, and distribution of over 75,000 leaflets to key target populations. About US $16 million of the $25,688,875-budget HIV/AIDS program for 1994-98 was pledged by external donors.

  8. Sexual Risk Behaviors, AIDS Knowledge, and Beliefs about AIDS among Runaways.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Koopman, Cheryl

    1991-01-01

    Examined young runaways' current risk behaviors, knowledge of AIDS, and beliefs about preventing AIDS by questioning 130 male and female subjects from shelters in New York City in 1988-89. Results did not explain the 6.7 percent seroprevalence rate reported in l988. Recommends closer inquiries regarding IV drug use and prostitution. (DM)

  9. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  10. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  11. The International AIDS Questionnaire-English Version (IAQ-E): Assessing the Validity and Reliability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Cindy; Sloan, Melissa; MacMaster, Samuel; Hughes, Leslie

    2006-01-01

    In order to address HIV infection among college students, a comprehensive measure is needed that can be used with samples from culturally diverse populations. Therefore, this paper assessed the reliability and validity of an HIV/AIDS questionnaire that measures fours dimensions of HIV/AIDS awareness--factual knowledge, prejudice, personal risk,…

  12. Gambling with Your Health: Predictors of Risk for AIDS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lasorsa, Dominic L.; Shoemaker, Pamela J.

    To examine risk for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) in terms of risk-related behaviors, and to investigate the factors that may be involved in putting one at risk, a study conducted telephone interviews with 493 randomly selected adults (18 years or older) in Austin, Texas in the fall of 1987. Respondents answered approximately 40…

  13. Adolescents' AIDS Risk Taking: A Rational Choice Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gardner, William; Herman, Janna

    1990-01-01

    Discounts the belief in adolescents' irrational behavior, and proposes a rational choice decision-making theory of adolescent risk-taking behavior. Suggests that social ecology affects risk-taking choices. Proposals for AIDS education concern delayed initiation of sexual activity, promotion of condom use, and counseling of high-risk adolescents.…

  14. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  15. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  16. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  17. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  18. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  19. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  20. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    SciTech Connect

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  1. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  2. AIDS communication: role of knowledge factors on perceptions of risk.

    PubMed

    Melkote, S R; Muppidi, S R

    1999-06-01

    The AIDS epidemic is a challenge for health practitioners, educators, mass media communicators, and social workers. The current absence of pharmacological, immunological, and medical interventions against HIV/AIDS demands that social and behavioral HIV/AIDS prevention interventions be given central focus. Efforts to reduce the practice of high-risk HIV behaviors are key to preventing or reducing HIV infection. However, effecting such changes poses many challenges since it must be addressed in the situational, social, cultural, and individual psychological contexts of different societies. While sexual abstinence is the most effective way to prevent the sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS, it is unrealistic to expect that most adults and adolescents will abstain from sex to avoid HIV infection. Rather, studies are needed to identify which factors influence the change of risk behaviors. Findings are presented from a study conducted to identify which factors contribute to the self-perception of risk for contracting HIV among 323 university students in a US midwestern city. At least 2 knowledge factors and the practice of safe sex behaviors were found to contribute to perceptions of lower risk of being infected with HIV. Media campaigns which deliver only accurate and comprehensive AIDS information from a medical and immunological perspective, and fail to address the subjective images people have about AIDS, may be less effective in reducing perceptions of risk than are message and educational strategies which also deal with people's subjective concerns.

  3. AIDS communication: role of knowledge factors on perceptions of risk.

    PubMed

    Melkote, S R; Muppidi, S R

    1999-06-01

    The AIDS epidemic is a challenge for health practitioners, educators, mass media communicators, and social workers. The current absence of pharmacological, immunological, and medical interventions against HIV/AIDS demands that social and behavioral HIV/AIDS prevention interventions be given central focus. Efforts to reduce the practice of high-risk HIV behaviors are key to preventing or reducing HIV infection. However, effecting such changes poses many challenges since it must be addressed in the situational, social, cultural, and individual psychological contexts of different societies. While sexual abstinence is the most effective way to prevent the sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS, it is unrealistic to expect that most adults and adolescents will abstain from sex to avoid HIV infection. Rather, studies are needed to identify which factors influence the change of risk behaviors. Findings are presented from a study conducted to identify which factors contribute to the self-perception of risk for contracting HIV among 323 university students in a US midwestern city. At least 2 knowledge factors and the practice of safe sex behaviors were found to contribute to perceptions of lower risk of being infected with HIV. Media campaigns which deliver only accurate and comprehensive AIDS information from a medical and immunological perspective, and fail to address the subjective images people have about AIDS, may be less effective in reducing perceptions of risk than are message and educational strategies which also deal with people's subjective concerns. PMID:12349162

  4. Non-invasive Characterization of the Histopathologic Features of Pulmonary Nodules of the Lung Adenocarcinoma Spectrum using Computer Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY) – a Pilot Study

    PubMed Central

    Maldonado, Fabien; Boland, Jennifer M.; Raghunath, Sushravya; Aubry, Marie Christine; Bartholmai, Brian J.; deAndrade, Mariza; Hartman, Thomas E.; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Sykes, Anne-Marie; Yang, Ping; Yi, Eunhee S.; Robb, Richard A.; Peikert, Tobias

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum are characterized by distinctive morphological and radiological features and variable prognosis. Non-invasive high-resolution computed-tomography (HRCT)-based risk stratification tools are needed to individualize their management. Methods Radiological measurements of histopathologic tissue invasion were developed in a training set of 54 pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum and validated in 86 consecutively resected nodules. Nodules were isolated and characterized by computer-aided analysis and data were analyzed by Spearman correlation, sensitivity, specificity as well as the positive and negative predictive values. Results Computer Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY) can non-invasively characterize pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Unsupervised clustering analysis of HRCT data identified 9 unique exemplars representing the basic radiologic building blocks of these lesions. The exemplar distribution within each nodule correlated well with the proportion of histologic tissue invasion, Spearman R=0.87,p < 0.0001 and 0.89,p < 0.0001 for the training and the validation set, respectively. Clustering of the exemplars in three-dimensional space corresponding to tissue invasion and lepidic growth was used to develop a CANARY decision algorithm, which successfully categorized these pulmonary nodules as “aggressive” (invasive adenocarcinoma) or “indolent” (adenocarcinoma in situ and minimally invasive adenocarcinoma). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of this approach for the detection of “aggressive” lesions were 95.4%, 96.8%, 95.4% and 96.8%, respectively in the training set and 98.7%, 63.6%, 94.9% and 87.5%, respectively in the validation set. Conclusion CANARY represents a promising tool to non-invasively risk stratify pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum. PMID:23486265

  5. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment).

  6. Targeting the audience for AIDS messages by actual and perceived risk.

    PubMed

    Snyder, L B; Rouse, R A

    1992-01-01

    Since there are many ways to segment an audience into target groups, we suggest that a productive strategy for AIDS education is to divide the audience by their actual and perceived risk. We provide an example in which we segmented an urban U.S. sample and make suggestions as to how messages appropriate for each group can be constructed. In our sample, the "unthreatened" accurately assessed their low risk of AIDS, and showed high knowledge and tolerance rates. The "panicked," who included more women and Hispanics, inaccurately thought themselves at high risk because of misunderstandings about the causes of AIDS, and showed more intolerance of people with AIDS. "Deniers" continued to have multiple sexual partners and take precautions irregularly, despite seeing AIDS as a social problem and having more education and AIDS knowledge. In contrast, "gamblers" recognized their higher risk of AIDS and were most likely to have taken some action, although not enough to prevent sexual transmission of the HIV virus. PMID:1642959

  7. Estimation of prevalence of Salmonella on pig carcasses and pork joints, using a quantitative risk assessment model aided by meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Barron, Ursula Gonzales; Soumpasis, Ilias; Butler, Francis; Prendergast, Deirdre; Duggan, Sharon; Duffy, Geraldine

    2009-02-01

    This risk assessment study aimed to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella on pig carcasses and pork joints produced in slaughterhouses, on the basis that within groups of slaughter there is a strong association between the proportion of Salmonella-positive animals entering the slaughter lines (x) and the resulting proportion of contaminated eviscerated pig carcasses (y). To this effect, the results of a number of published studies reporting estimates of x and y were assembled in order to model a stochastic weighted regression considering the sensitivities of the diverse Salmonella culture methods. Meta-analysis was used to assign weights to the regression and to estimate the overall effect of chilling on Salmonella incidence on pig carcasses. The model's ability to produce accurate estimates and the intrinsic effectiveness of the modeling capabilities of meta-analysis were appraised using Irish data for the input parameter of prevalence of Salmonella carrier slaughter pigs. The model approximated a Salmonella prevalence in pork joints from Irish boning halls of 4.0% (95% confidence interval, 0.3 to 12.0%) and was validated by the results of a large survey (n = 720) of Salmonella in pork joints (mean, 3.3%; 95% confidence interval, 2.0 to 4.6%) carried out in four commercial pork abattoirs as part of this research project. Sensitivity analysis reinforced the importance of final rinsing (r = -0.382) and chilling (r = -0.221) as stages that contribute to reducing considerably the occurrence of Salmonella on the final product, while hygiene practices during jointing seemed to moderate only marginally the amount of contaminated pork joints. Finally, the adequacy of meta-analysis for integrating different findings and producing distributions for use in stochastic modeling was demonstrated.

  8. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  9. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  10. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  11. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Nigeria.

    PubMed

    1997-02-01

    The World Health Organization estimated that 2.2% of Nigeria's adult population was infected with HIV by the end of 1995. A 1993-94 sentinel surveillance report found a 3.8% HIV seroprevalence level among sexually active Nigerians sampled. HIV prevalence is rising in the country. Incidence and prevalence data are presented on HIV and AIDS in sections on antenatal clinics, HIV-1 and HIV-2, group variations, regional variations, age variations, prostitutes, and infection by blood. The Nigerian government has projected that there could be 7 million people infected with HIV in the country by the year 2000. Background is presented on the economy, living standards, health, and population. Vulnerability is then considered with regard to population mobility, drug trafficking, the vulnerability of women, the international sex trade, the military presence in Liberia, sexual attitudes, poverty, and ignorance. The responses of the government and the domestic nongovernment sector are then presented followed by description of external assistance from the World Bank, the US Agency for International Development, the British Overseas Development Agency, the World Health Organization, the private sector, and the European Commission.

  12. Risk Assessment Workgroup report.

    PubMed

    Donohue, Joyce; Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Burch, Michael; Dietrich, Daniel; Hawkins, Belinda; Lloyd, Tony; Munns, Wayne; Steevens, Jeffery; Steffensen, Dennis; Stone, Dave; Tango, Peter

    2008-01-01

    The Risk Assessment Work Group focused on six charge questions related to CHABS, cyanobacteria and their toxins. The charge questions covered the following topics: Research needed to reduce uncertainty in establishing health based guidelines. Research that minimize the cost and maximize the benefits of various regulatory approaches. Exposure pathways for receptors of concern. Data available to support the derivation of health-based guideline values for harmful cyanobacterial algal blooms. Ecological services that guidelines or regulations should protect? A framework for making risk management determinations that incorporates consideration of the characteristics of CHABs, the risk for human health, ecosystem viability, and the costs and benefits of CHABs detection and management? The Work Group concluded that there is a considerable amount of human case-study data and information from animal studies to demonstrate that cyanobacterial toxins pose a hazard to humans, domestic animals, wildlife, and the ecosystem. However, the data on dose-response are limited and confounded by a lack of sufficient pure toxin to conduct most of the toxicological studies that will be needed in order to answer remaining questions on risk, and to provide the data for quantitative dose-response analysis. The Work Group recommended that research on purification or synthesis of pure toxin must be accomplished before the large scale studies to establish dose-response relationships will be possible. As the necessary-pure toxins become available, the Work Group recommended that studies be prioritized by the impact that they will have on reducing the uncertainty in the risk assessment in order to minimize the research costs and maximize the risk assessment benefits. Use of quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) and toxicity equivalency factor studies are also recommended as approaches for filling dose-response data gaps. The Work Group recognized that CHABs rarely introduce single

  13. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG&G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers` needs and the product have been established.

  14. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established.

  15. Anti-class II antibodies in AIDS patients and AIDS-risk groups.

    PubMed Central

    de la Barrera, S; Fainboim, L; Lugo, S; Picchio, G R; Muchinik, G R; de Bracco, M M

    1987-01-01

    The specificity of anti-lymphocyte antibodies was evaluated in AIDS patients and in individuals at risk of AIDS [R-AIDS: male homosexuals (Ho) and haemophiliacs (He)]. Antibodies capable of inducing antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) against non-T cells and lymphoblastoid cell lines (P3HR-1K and Raji) were detected in AIDS patients and in R-AIDS with positive or negative human immune deficiency virus (HIV) serology. Anti-class II antigen specificity was revealed by experiments in which class II antigens on target cells were blocked with monoclonal anti-class II antibody (DA6,231) and the cytotoxic reaction induced by patient's sera was abolished. In contrast, ADCC was not impaired by preincubating the target cells with anti-class I monoclonal antibody (W6/32). Prevalence of antibodies to non-T cells was confirmed by standard C-mediated microlymphocytotoxicity. However, with this technique anti-T lymphocyte cytotoxicity was also observed in three AIDS patients with haemophilia. R-AIDS peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were also cytotoxic against autologous non-T cells, and lysis was slightly increased by sensitization of the target cells with autologous serum. In addition to ADCC and C-mediated cytotoxicity, the specificity of anti-lymphocyte antibodies was assayed by their ability to interfere the binding of fluorescein-labelled anti-class II (HLA-DR) and anti-class I (W6/32) monoclonal antibodies to PBMC, non-T cells, P3HR-1K and Raji. Anti-class II specificity was confirmed, and antibody titres tended to be higher in Ho than in He R-AIDS, using non-T cells and Raji as targets. Higher titres of anti-class II antibodies in the Ho group could play a role in the different susceptibility of HIV-infected Ho when compared to HIV (+) He to develop AIDS. PMID:3501399

  16. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage. PMID:23477199

  17. Second assessment of NeuroAIDS in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Robertson, Kevin; Kopnisky, Kathy; Hakim, James; Merry, Concepta; Nakasujja, Noeline; Hall, Colin; Traore, Moussa; Sacktor, Ned; Clifford, David; Newton, Charles; Van Rie, Annelies; Holding, Penny; Clements, Janice; Zink, Christine; Mielke, Jens; Hosseinipour, Mina; Lalloo, Umesh; Amod, Farida; Marra, Christina; Evans, Scott; Liner, Jeff

    2009-01-01

    In July of 2006, the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Center for Mental Health Research on AIDS (CMHRA) sponsored the second conference on the Assessment of NeuroAIDS in Africa, which was held in Arusha, Tanzania. The conference mission was to address the regional variations in epidemiology of HIV-related neurological disorders as well as the assessment and diagnosis of these disorders. Participants discussed and presented data regarding the relevance and translation of neuroAIDS assessment measures developed in resource intensive settings and the challenges of neuro-assessment in Africa, including the applicability of current tools, higher prevalence of confounding diseases, and the complexity of diverse cultural settings. The conference presentations summarized here highlight the need for further research on neuroAIDS in Africa and methods for assessing HIV-related neurological disorders. PMID:18370346

  18. Limiting Cumulative HIV Viremia Copy-Years by Early Treatment Reduces Risk of AIDS and Death

    PubMed Central

    Walker, A. Sarah; Suthar, Amitabh B.; Sabin, Caroline; Bucher, Heiner C.; Jarrin, Inma; Moreno, Santiago; Perez-Hoyos, Santiago; Porter, Kholoud; Ford, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Background: Viremia copy-years (VCY), a time-updated measure of cumulative HIV exposure, predicts AIDS/death; although its utility in deciding when to start combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) remains unclear. We aimed to assess the impact of initiating versus deferring cART on risk of AIDS/death by levels of VCY both independent of and within CD4 cell count strata ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter. Methods: Using Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) data, we created a series of nested “trials” corresponding to consecutive months for individuals ≥16 years at seroconversion after 1995 who were cART-naive and AIDS-free. Pooling across all trials, time to AIDS/death by CD4, and VCY strata was compared in those initiating vs. deferring cART using Cox models adjusted for: country, sex, risk group, seroconversion year, age, time since last HIV-RNA, and current CD4, VCY, HIV-RNA, and mean number of previous CD4/HIV-RNA measurements/year. Results: Of 9353 individuals, 5312 (57%) initiated cART and 486 (5%) acquired AIDS/died. Pooling CD4 strata, risk of AIDS/death associated with initiating vs. deferring cART reduced as VCY increased. In patients with high CD4 cell counts, ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, there was a trend for a greater reduction for those initiating vs. deferring with increasing VCY (P = 0.09), with the largest benefit in the VCY ≥100,000 copy-years/mL group [hazard ratio (95% CI) = 0.41 (0.19 to 0.87)]. Conclusions: For individuals with CD4 ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, limiting the cumulative HIV burden to <100,000 copy-years/mL through cART may reduce the risk of AIDS/death. PMID:27116045

  19. Risks of Recreational Exposure to Waterborne Pathogens Among Persons With HIV/AIDS in Baltimore, Maryland

    PubMed Central

    Lemerman, Hanna B.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Moore, Richard D.; Graczyk, Thaddeus K.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives. We assessed the prevalence of recreational activities in the waterways of Baltimore, MD, and the risk of exposure to Cryptosporidium among persons with HIV/AIDS. Methods. We studied patients at the Johns Hopkins Moore Outpatient AIDS Clinic. We conducted oral interviews with a convenience sample of 157 HIV/AIDS patients to ascertain the sites used for recreational water contact within Baltimore waters and assess risk behaviors. Results. Approximately 48% of respondents reported participating in recreational water activities (fishing, crabbing, boating, and swimming). Men and women were almost equally likely to engage in recreational water activities (53.3% versus 51.3%). Approximately 67% (105 of 157) ate their own catch or that of friends or family members, and a majority (61%, or 46 of 75) of respondents who reported recreational water contact reported consumption of their own catch. Conclusions. Baltimoreans with HIV/AIDS are engaging in recreational water activities in urban waters that may expose them to waterborne pathogens and recreational water illnesses. Susceptible persons, such as patients with HIV/AIDS, should be cautioned regarding potential microbial risks from recreational water contact with surface waters. PMID:19372505

  20. AIDS knowledge and risk behaviors among culturally diverse women.

    PubMed

    Harrison, D F; Wambach, K G; Byers, J B; Imershein, A W; Levine, P; Maddox, K; Quadagno, D M; Fordyce, M L; Jones, M A

    1991-01-01

    This article reports results from a survey of women at risk for HIV infection. The sample (n = 620) included black (50.6%), white (28.7%), Hispanic (13.4%), and Haitian (5.0%) adult women from south Florida. Data concerning their AIDS knowledge, prevalence of risk behaviors, and perceived vulnerability are presented. Results indicate differences in certain knowledge areas and risk behaviors by race/ethnicity and a consistent incidence of unprotected sex with their main partners across all racial/ethnic groups.

  1. AIDS knowledge and risk behaviors among culturally diverse women.

    PubMed

    Harrison, D F; Wambach, K G; Byers, J B; Imershein, A W; Levine, P; Maddox, K; Quadagno, D M; Fordyce, M L; Jones, M A

    1991-01-01

    This article reports results from a survey of women at risk for HIV infection. The sample (n = 620) included black (50.6%), white (28.7%), Hispanic (13.4%), and Haitian (5.0%) adult women from south Florida. Data concerning their AIDS knowledge, prevalence of risk behaviors, and perceived vulnerability are presented. Results indicate differences in certain knowledge areas and risk behaviors by race/ethnicity and a consistent incidence of unprotected sex with their main partners across all racial/ethnic groups. PMID:1873140

  2. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  3. Risk Assessment: Implications for Biologic Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses risk assessment, including risk assessment as a modeling process, models and social values, political decision making, the public, and risk assessment techniques in the biology classroom. (MKR)

  4. Practical approaches to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Brooke-Taylor, S

    2001-06-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  5. An Information-Centric Framework for Designing Patient-Centered Medical Decision Aids and Risk Communication

    PubMed Central

    Franklin, Lyndsey; Plaisant, Catherine; Shneiderman, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Risk communication is a major challenge in productive patient-physician communication. Patient decision making responsibilities come with an implicit assumption that patients are sufficiently educated and confident in their abilities to make decisions about their care based on evidence based treatment recommendations. Attempts to improve health literacy in patients by way of graphical decision aids have met with success. Such decision aids typically have been designed for a general population and evaluated based on whether or not users of the decision aid can accurately report the data points in isolation. To classify decision aids, we present an information-centric framework for assessing the content delivered to patients. We provide examples of our framework from a literature survey and suggest ways improvements can be made by considering all dimensions of our framework. PMID:24551350

  6. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  7. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  8. Does Computer-Aided Formative Assessment Improve Learning Outcomes?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hannah, John; James, Alex; Williams, Phillipa

    2014-01-01

    Two first-year engineering mathematics courses used computer-aided assessment (CAA) to provide students with opportunities for formative assessment via a series of weekly quizzes. Most students used the assessment until they achieved very high (>90%) quiz scores. Although there is a positive correlation between these quiz marks and the final…

  9. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  10. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  12. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  13. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment.

  14. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. PMID:24913749

  15. Assessing the construct validity of the AIDS Attitude Scale.

    PubMed

    Bruce, K E; Reid, B C

    1998-02-01

    To assess the construct validity of the AIDS Attitude Scale (AAS) (Shrum, Turner, & Bruce, 1989), we administered it and related attitude scales to introductory psychology students (n = 279) and gay/lesbian support group members (n = 38). A subset of the students (n = 105) participated in a concurrent validity study; students donating items to an AIDS food pantry scored more tolerantly on the AAS than other students. AAS scores also differentiated subjects expected to have more tolerant attitudes toward people living with HIV and AIDS from other respondents, indicating known groups validity. As expected, AAS scores were positively correlated with attitudes about homosexuals and negatively correlated with authoritarian beliefs. However, AAS scores were not related to death anxiety. Attitudes about AIDS were distinguishable from related constructs using factor analysis. Together, these data provide evidence for the construct validity of the AAS. The need for valid assessment tools and uses of the AAS are discussed.

  16. Topographical Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Phil Daling, PNNL

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP senior management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.

  17. Topographical Risk Assessment

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP seniormore » management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.« less

  18. eWorkbook: A Computer Aided Assessment System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costagliola, Gennaro; Ferrucci, Filomena; Fuccella, Vittorio; Oliveto, Rocco

    2007-01-01

    Computer aided assessment (CAA) tools are more and more widely adopted in academic environments mixed to other assessment means. In this article, we present a CAA Web application, named eWorkbook, which can be used for evaluating learner's knowledge by creating (the tutor) and taking (the learner) on-line tests based on multiple choice, multiple…

  19. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  20. Guide for ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    Ecological risk assessment evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors. Ecological risk assessment provides a critical element for environmental decision making by giving risk managers an approach for considering available scientific information along with the other factors they need to consider (e.g., social, legal, political, or economic) in selecting a course of action. The primary audience for this document is risk assessors and risk managers at EPA, although these Guidelines also may be useful to others outside the Agency.

  1. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  2. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factor (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis

  3. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders. PMID:26781555

  4. An Instrument to Aid in Assessing Editorials.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burkhalter, Nancy

    1995-01-01

    Presents a primary-trait scoring instrument intended for journalism teachers to use in assessing students' editorials by breaking down the analysis into three essential components: claims, data, and warrants. Applies the instrument to two student essays. (SR)

  5. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  6. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid. PMID:26556515

  7. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  8. AIDS prevention among Hispanics: needs, risk behaviors, and cultural values.

    PubMed

    Marin, G

    1989-01-01

    Data from different sources show that Hispanics are over-represented in reported cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) (twice their proportion of the population) and that their rate of infection by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is three times higher than among non-Hispanic whites. The behavior risk factors most frequently associated with infection in AIDS cases are IV drug use in the Northeast and high-risk sexual behavior in the West. HIV infection prevention strategies for Hispanics need to address high risk behaviors, taking into consideration associated culture-specific characteristics. Strategies need to address as well conditions such as racism and ethnic prejudices that keep many Hispanic homosexuals and bisexuals away from white or non-Hispanic gay organizations and publications, the lack of culturally appropriate drug treatment centers, the level of mis-information among Hispanics, and the possible high incidence among men of sexual intercourse with prostitutes. Prevention campaigns need to include such Hispanic cultural values as simpatia, familialism, personalismo, and power distance, if prevention campaigns are going to be perceived as relevant by Hispanics. Appropriate wording and communication channels need to be identified in order to transmit messages that will be perceived as credible and that will reach the largest possible audience.

  9. AIDS prevention among Hispanics: needs, risk behaviors, and cultural values.

    PubMed Central

    Marin, G

    1989-01-01

    Data from different sources show that Hispanics are over-represented in reported cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) (twice their proportion of the population) and that their rate of infection by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is three times higher than among non-Hispanic whites. The behavior risk factors most frequently associated with infection in AIDS cases are IV drug use in the Northeast and high-risk sexual behavior in the West. HIV infection prevention strategies for Hispanics need to address high risk behaviors, taking into consideration associated culture-specific characteristics. Strategies need to address as well conditions such as racism and ethnic prejudices that keep many Hispanic homosexuals and bisexuals away from white or non-Hispanic gay organizations and publications, the lack of culturally appropriate drug treatment centers, the level of mis-information among Hispanics, and the possible high incidence among men of sexual intercourse with prostitutes. Prevention campaigns need to include such Hispanic cultural values as simpatia, familialism, personalismo, and power distance, if prevention campaigns are going to be perceived as relevant by Hispanics. Appropriate wording and communication channels need to be identified in order to transmit messages that will be perceived as credible and that will reach the largest possible audience. PMID:2508169

  10. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  11. Risk and Risk Assessment in Environmental Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chiras, Daniel D.

    1982-01-01

    Risk assessment (the identification of hazards, the determination of the probability of a hazardous event occurring, and an estimation of the severity of such an event's occurrence) is suggested as a technique to be used to analyze current issues in environmental education in an objective manner. (PEB)

  12. Hepatitis B Vaccine Antibody Response and the Risk of Clinical AIDS or Death

    PubMed Central

    Landrum, Michael L.; Hullsiek, Katherine Huppler; O'Connell, Robert J.; Chun, Helen M.; Ganesan, Anuradha; Okulicz, Jason F.; Lalani, Tahaniyat; Weintrob, Amy C.; Crum-Cianflone, Nancy F.; Agan, Brian K.

    2012-01-01

    Background Whether seroresponse to a vaccine such as hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccine can provide a measure of the functional immune status of HIV-infected persons is unknown.This study evaluated the relationship between HBV vaccine seroresponses and progression to clinical AIDS or death. Methods and Findings From a large HIV cohort, we evaluated those who received HBV vaccine only after HIV diagnosis and had anti-HBs determination 1–12 months after the last vaccine dose. Non-response and positive response were defined as anti-HBs <10 and ≥10 IU/L, respectively. Participants were followed from date of last vaccination to clinical AIDS, death, or last visit. Univariate and multivariable risk of progression to clinical AIDS or death were evaluated with Cox regression models. A total of 795 participants vaccinated from 1986–2010 were included, of which 41% were responders. During 3,872 person-years of observation, 122 AIDS or death events occurred (53% after 1995). Twenty-two percent of non-responders experienced clinical AIDS or death compared with 5% of responders (p<0.001). Non-response to HBV vaccine was associated with a greater than 2-fold increased risk of clinical AIDS or death (HR 2.47; 95% CI, 1.38–4.43) compared with a positive response, after adjusting for CD4 count, HIV viral load, HAART use, and delayed type hypersensitivity skin test responses (an in vivo marker of cell-mediated immunity). This association remained evident among those with CD4 count ≥500 cells/mm3 (HR 3.40; 95% CI, 1.39–8.32). Conclusions HBV vaccine responses may have utility in assessing functional immune status and risk stratificating HIV-infected individuals, including those with CD4 count ≥500 cells/mm3. PMID:22457767

  13. Aids knowledge and risk behaviors among Midwest migrant farm workers.

    PubMed

    Ford, K; King, G; Nerenberg, L; Rojo, C

    2001-12-01

    The objectives of this study were to investigate the AIDS/HIV knowledge of Latino adolescent and adult migrant farm workers in Michigan, to determine risk behaviors related to HIV, and to determine differences in generational norms regarding sexual activity. For the most part, the Latino migrant population seemed knowledgeable about sexual modes of HIV transmission, although casual contact, through kissing and going to school or work with an infected individual, was also seen as a possible route of transmission for some. Several condom beliefs were identified that may be barriers to use, including the beliefs that condoms are only for use with prostitutes (35 % agreed) and that condoms are only for gay men (54% agreed). Only a small proportion (10%) agreed that condoms were good protection from AIDS. Most respondents knew what condoms were, although only 51% of the sample knew friends who used them. Adolescent females in the camps generally disapproved of premarital sex, while males and older females were more accepting. All these factors make it pertinent to implement HIV/AIDS education programs that are culturally sensitive, gender-specific, and effective in both generations. PMID:11791786

  14. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  15. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  16. Risk assessment in international operations.

    PubMed

    Stricklin, Daniela L

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umeå has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently. PMID:18325560

  17. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  18. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  19. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  20. Clinical decision aids for chest pain in the emergency department: identifying low-risk patients

    PubMed Central

    Alley, William; Mahler, Simon A

    2015-01-01

    Chest pain is one of the most common presenting complaints in the emergency department, though only a small minority of patients are subsequently diagnosed with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, missing the diagnosis has potential for significant morbidity and mortality. ACS presentations can be atypical, and their workups are often prolonged and costly. In order to risk-stratify patients and better direct the workup and care given, many decision aids have been developed. While each may have merit in certain clinical settings, the most useful aid in the emergency department is one that finds all cases of ACS while also identifying a substantial subset of patients at low risk who can be discharged without stress testing or coronary angiography. This review describes several of the chest pain decision aids developed and studied through the recent past, starting with the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scores, which were developed as prognostic aids for patients already diagnosed with ACS, then subsequently validated in the undifferentiated chest pain population. Asia-Pacific Evaluation of Chest Pain Trial (ASPECT); Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients With Chest Pain Symptoms Using Contemporary Troponins (ADAPT); North American Chest Pain Rule (NACPR); and History, Electrocardiogram, Age, Risk factors, Troponin (HEART) score have been developed exclusively for use in the undifferentiated chest pain population as well, with improved performance compared to their predecessors. This review describes the relative merits and limitations of these decision aids so that providers can determine which tool fits the needs of their clinical practice setting. PMID:27147894

  1. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  2. Caries management by risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2013-02-01

    Caries disease is multifactorial. Whether caries disease will be expressed and damage dental hard tissue is dependent on the patient's own unique make-up of pathogenic risk factors and protective factors. Objectives This manuscript will review the science of managing caries disease based on assessing caries risk. Methods The caries balance/imbalance model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult will illustrate how treatment options can be based on caries risk. Results Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply there is currently only one correct way this can be achieved, rather are used in this manuscript as examples only. Conclusions It is important to have the forms and protocols simple and easy to understand when implementing caries management by risk assessment into clinical practice. The science of CAMBRA based on the caries balance/imbalance model was reviewed and an example protocol was presented.

  3. Assessment of Alternative Student Aid Delivery Systems. A Context Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Advanced Technology, Inc., Reston, VA.

    Background questions to support a federally-sponsored assessment of major student aid delivery system options are addressed. Attention is directed to: (1) information needed by the U.S. Secretary of Education to decide about changes to the delivery system; (2) reasons that delivery system redesign is a critical issue; (3) what can be learned from…

  4. How Effective Is Feedback in Computer-Aided Assessments?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gill, Mundeep; Greenhow, Martin

    2008-01-01

    Computer-Aided Assessments (CAAs) have been used increasingly at Brunel University for over 10 years to test students' mathematical abilities. Recently, we have focussed on providing very rich feedback to the students; given the work involved in designing and coding such feedback, it is important to study the impact of the interaction between…

  5. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  6. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  7. Assessment of a decision aid to assist genetic testing research participants in the informed consent process.

    PubMed

    Sorenson, J R; Lakon, C; Spinney, T; Jennings-Grant, T

    2004-01-01

    Limited attention has been given to applying decision-making theories from psychology to the content and process of informed consent in genetic testing research. Data are presented from a study that developed and assessed a psychological theory-based decision aid as part of the informed consent process. This innovative approach assisted at-risk women in assessing the consequences of participating in a research project that offered them free hemophilia A genetic carrier testing. Results suggest: (1) the decision aid can be incorporated into the consent process with few problems; (2) women of varying educational backgrounds can complete the decision aid; (3) while women consider many consequences of genetic testing, their primary focus is on the implications for their family; and (4) this is in marked contrast to the typical benefit-harm statements prepared by researchers for genetic testing.

  8. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  9. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  10. Intelligent situation assessment and response aiding in flight emergencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hudlicka, Eva; Corker, Kevin; Cramer, Nichael; Young, David; Baron, Sheldon

    1989-01-01

    A knowledge-based pilot aiding system which performs situation assessment and response aiding is described. The system uses a causal model of the flight domain to both simulate the effects of identified failures on flight and to derive responses during emergencies. The model represents information at two levels of abstraction: Boolean, which simply states whether a subsystem or aircraft component is normal or abnormal, and qualitative, which expresses the subsystem or component status as one of several qualitative values, such as increasing, decreasing, or stable.

  11. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  12. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  13. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  14. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  15. Risk assessment of sensitizing agents.

    PubMed

    Gerberick, G F

    1994-01-01

    This review describes an approach that has been used to assess the skin sensitization risk of new product ingredients prior to and after marketing. The risk assessment process utilizes a comparative toxicological approach in which data on the inherent toxicity of a material and the exposure to it through manufacturing or consumer use or foreseeable misuse are integrated and compared with data generated by 'benchmark' materials of similar chemistry or product application, or both. This approach has been valuable in providing an accurate assessment of skin sensitization potential and the basis for eventual safe marketing of a wide range of consumer household and personal care products and topical pharmaceuticals.

  16. Does Using Nonnumerical Terms to Describe Risk Aid Violence Risk Communication? Clinician Agreement and Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilton, N. Zoe; Carter, Angela M.; Harris, Grant T.; Sharpe, Amilynn J. B.

    2008-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessments yield valid numerical information about violence risk, but research suggests that forensic clinicians prefer to communicate risk using nonnumerical information (i.e., verbal terms such as high risk). In an experimental questionnaire study, 60 forensic clinicians disagreed on the interpretation of nonnumerical terms, and…

  17. The Influence of Knowing Someone with AIDS on Youth HIV Sexual Risk Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cederbaum, Julie A.; Marcus, Steven C.; Hutchinson, M. Katherine

    2007-01-01

    Research indicates that knowing someone with HIV/AIDS is associated with greater perceived risk of contracting HIV and changes in sexual risk behaviors. The current study with a sample of 1,172 examined whether knowing someone with HIV/AIDS influenced sexual risk communication and youth engagement in sexual intercourse using the Philadelphia…

  18. EPA's neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines.

    PubMed

    Boyes, W K; Dourson, M L; Patterson, J; Tilson, H A; Sette, W F; MacPhail, R C; Li, A A; O'Donoghue, J L

    1997-12-01

    The proposed Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment Guidelines (U.S. EPA, 1995c Fed. Reg. 60(192), 52032-52056) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were the subject of a workshop at the 1997 Meeting of the Society of Toxicology. The workshop considered the role of guidelines in the risk assessment process, the primary features, scientific basis, and implications of the guidelines for EPA program offices, as well as for industrial neurotoxicologists from the perspectives of both pesticides and toxic substances regulation. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 1983, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process) established a framework for distinguishing risk management from risk assessment, the latter being the result of integrating hazard identification, hazard characterization, and exposure assessment data. The guidelines are intended to establish operating principles that will be used when examining data in a risk assessment context. The proposed neurotoxicity risk assessment guidelines provide a conceptual framework for deciding whether or not a chemically induced effect can be considered to be evidence of neurotoxicity. Topics in the proposed guidelines include structural and functional effects, dose-response and -duration considerations, and relationships between effects. Among the issues that must be considered are the multiplicity of chemical effects, the levels of biological organization in the nervous system, and the tests, measurements, and protocols used. Judgment of the adversity of an effect depends heavily on the amount and types of data available. The attribution of a chemically induced effect to an action on the nervous system depends on several factors such as the quality of the study, the nature of the outcome, dose-response and time-response relationships, and the possible involvement of nonneural factors. The guidelines will also serve as a reference for those conducting neurotoxicity testing, as well as establish a

  19. Collision risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez Ortiz, N.; Belló Mora, M.; Graziano, M.; Pina Caballero, F.; Sánchez Pérez, J. M.; Klinkrad, H.

    2001-10-01

    Avoidance of near misses or collisions is required for almost all satellites on orbit, but it is of particular interest for manned missions and spacecraft at densely populated regions. In order to avoid these possible collisions, it is needed to determine a possible conjunction and its associated uncertainty. Two main constraints must be taken into account when a tool to forecast the collision risk of an object is being developed: the high number of objects in space and the accuracy of the catalogued object data. The number of objects on Earth orbit makes impossible to propagate all the catalogued objects, thus filtering and parallel processing techniques are presented. The accuracy of the catalogued object data and the propagation of the error over the time identify a position ellipsoid of error, whose behaviour has an important influence on some parameters on the filtering techniques and the way the collision probability is computed. Some collision probability methods are presented.

  20. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  1. Robot-aided assessment of lower extremity functions: a review.

    PubMed

    Maggioni, Serena; Melendez-Calderon, Alejandro; van Asseldonk, Edwin; Klamroth-Marganska, Verena; Lünenburger, Lars; Riener, Robert; van der Kooij, Herman

    2016-01-01

    The assessment of sensorimotor functions is extremely important to understand the health status of a patient and its change over time. Assessments are necessary to plan and adjust the therapy in order to maximize the chances of individual recovery. Nowadays, however, assessments are seldom used in clinical practice due to administrative constraints or to inadequate validity, reliability and responsiveness. In clinical trials, more sensitive and reliable measurement scales could unmask changes in physiological variables that would not be visible with existing clinical scores.In the last decades robotic devices have become available for neurorehabilitation training in clinical centers. Besides training, robotic devices can overcome some of the limitations in traditional clinical assessments by providing more objective, sensitive, reliable and time-efficient measurements. However, it is necessary to understand the clinical needs to be able to develop novel robot-aided assessment methods that can be integrated in clinical practice.This paper aims at providing researchers and developers in the field of robotic neurorehabilitation with a comprehensive review of assessment methods for the lower extremities. Among the ICF domains, we included those related to lower extremities sensorimotor functions and walking; for each chapter we present and discuss existing assessments used in routine clinical practice and contrast those to state-of-the-art instrumented and robot-aided technologies. Based on the shortcomings of current assessments, on the identified clinical needs and on the opportunities offered by robotic devices, we propose future directions for research in rehabilitation robotics. The review and recommendations provided in this paper aim to guide the design of the next generation of robot-aided functional assessments, their validation and their translation to clinical practice. PMID:27485106

  2. An assessment of global Internet-based HIV/AIDS media coverage: implications for United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS' Global Media HIV/AIDS initiative.

    PubMed

    Anema, A; Freifeld, C C; Druyts, E; Montaner, J S G; Hogg, R S; Brownstein, J S

    2010-01-01

    No studies to date have assessed the quantity of HIV/AIDS-related media on the Internet. We assessed the quantity of language-specific HIV/AIDS Internet-based news coverage, and the correlation between country-specific HIV/AIDS news coverage and HIV/AIDS prevalence. Internet-based HIV/AIDS news articles were queried from Google News Archives for 168 countries, for the year 2007, in the nine most commonly spoken languages worldwide. English, French and Spanish sources had the greatest number of HIV/AIDS-related articles, representing 134,000 (0.70%), 11,200 (0.65%) and 24,300 (0.49%) of all news articles, respectively. A strong association between country-specific HIV/AIDS news coverage and HIV/AIDS prevalence was found, Spearman's rank correlation: 0.6 (P < 0.001). Among countries with elevated HIV/AIDS prevalence (> or =10%), the volume of HIV/AIDS-specific media was highest in Swaziland (15.9%) and Malawi (13.2%), and lowest in South Africa (4.8%) and Namibia (4.9%). Increased media attention should be placed on countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence and limited HIV/AIDS-specific news coverage.

  3. Topics in cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Olin, S S; Neumann, D A; Foran, J A; Scarano, G J

    1997-01-01

    The estimation of carcinogenic risks from exposure to chemicals has become an integral part of the regulatory process in the United States within the past decade. With it have come considerable controversy and debate over the scientific merits and shortcomings of the methods and their impact on risk management decisions. In this paper we highlight selected topics of current interest in the debate. As an indication of the level of public concern, we note the major recent reports on risk assessment from the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S Environmental Protection Agency's proposed substantial revisions to its Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. We identify and briefly frame several key scientific issues in cancer risk assessment, including the growing recognition of the importance of understanding the mode of action of carcinogenesis in experimental animals and in humans, the methodologies and challenges in quantitative extrapolation of cancer risks, and the question of how to assess and account for human variability in susceptibility to carcinogens. In addition, we discuss initiatives in progress that may fundamentally alter the carcinogenesis testing paradigm. PMID:9114281

  4. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  5. Excess mortality in patients with AIDS in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy: Temporal changes and risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Puhan, Milo A.; Van Natta, Mark L.; Palella, Frank J.; Addessi, Adrienne; Meinert, Curtis

    2010-01-01

    Background Excess mortality has declined among HIV infected patients but without evidence of a decline in patients with AIDS. We assessed temporal changes in excess mortality and elucidated risk factors for excess mortality in patients with AIDS diagnosed in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods We included 1,188 patients of the Longitudinal Study of Ocular Complications in AIDS who were between 25-64 years old at enrollment and diagnosed with AIDS after 1995. We calculated excess mortality as the age-, year- and sex-adjusted difference in mortality rates between patients with AIDS and persons in the US general population, between 1999 and 2007, and used a relative survival model to identify risk factors for excess mortality. Results There were an average of 50 excess deaths (95% CI 44-57) per 1,000 person years between 1999 and 2007. Excess mortality almost halved with an annual decline of 8.0% per year (3.0-12.7 p=0.002) but remained high at 36 excess deaths per 1,000 person years in 2007. Viral load >400 vs. ≤400 copies/mL (risk ratio 3.4 [2.3-5.0]), CD4+ count <200 vs. ≥200 cells/μL (2.7 [1.9-3.9]) and cytomegalovirus retinitis (1.6 [1.2-2.1]) were the strongest risk factors for excess mortality. Conclusions Excess mortality among patients with AIDS was nearly halved in the HAART era and most strongly linked to stage of HIV disease. These results reflect the continuing improvements in AIDS management but also highlight that excess mortality remains about five times higher in patients with AIDS than in patients with HIV-infection but no AIDS. PMID:20825306

  6. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. PMID:25321142

  7. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  9. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  10. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  11. Assessment technique for computer-aided manufactured sockets.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Joan E; Severance, Michael R

    2011-01-01

    This article presents an assessment technique for testing the quality of prosthetic socket fabrication processes at computer-aided manufacturing facilities. The assessment technique is potentially useful to both facilities making sockets and companies marketing manufacturing equipment seeking to assess and improve product quality. To execute the assessment technique, an evaluator fabricates a collection of test models and sockets using the manufacturing suite under evaluation, then measures their shapes using scanning equipment. Overall socket quality is assessed by comparing socket shapes with electronic file (e-file) shapes. To characterize carving performance, model shapes are compared with e-file shapes. To characterize forming performance, socket shapes are compared with model shapes. The mean radial error (MRE), which is the average difference in radii between the two compared shapes, provides insight into sizing quality. Interquartile range (IQR), the range of radial error for the best-matched half of the points on the compared socket surfaces, provides insight into regional shape quality. The source(s) of socket shape error may be pinpointed by separately determining MRE and IQR for carving and forming. The developed assessment technique may provide a useful tool to the prosthetics community and industry to help identify problems and limitations in computer-aided manufacturing and give insight into appropriate modifications to overcome them. PMID:21938663

  12. Assessment technique for computer-aided manufactured sockets.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Joan E; Severance, Michael R

    2011-01-01

    This article presents an assessment technique for testing the quality of prosthetic socket fabrication processes at computer-aided manufacturing facilities. The assessment technique is potentially useful to both facilities making sockets and companies marketing manufacturing equipment seeking to assess and improve product quality. To execute the assessment technique, an evaluator fabricates a collection of test models and sockets using the manufacturing suite under evaluation, then measures their shapes using scanning equipment. Overall socket quality is assessed by comparing socket shapes with electronic file (e-file) shapes. To characterize carving performance, model shapes are compared with e-file shapes. To characterize forming performance, socket shapes are compared with model shapes. The mean radial error (MRE), which is the average difference in radii between the two compared shapes, provides insight into sizing quality. Interquartile range (IQR), the range of radial error for the best-matched half of the points on the compared socket surfaces, provides insight into regional shape quality. The source(s) of socket shape error may be pinpointed by separately determining MRE and IQR for carving and forming. The developed assessment technique may provide a useful tool to the prosthetics community and industry to help identify problems and limitations in computer-aided manufacturing and give insight into appropriate modifications to overcome them.

  13. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk.

    PubMed

    Manbeck, Harvey B; Hofstetter, Daniel W; Murphy, Dennis J; Puri, Virendra M

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess (1) how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2) from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3) whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated.

  14. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk

    PubMed Central

    Manbeck, Harvey B.; Hofstetter, Daniel W.; Murphy, Dennis J.; Puri, Virendra M.

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess (1) how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2) from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3) whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated. PMID:27303661

  15. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk.

    PubMed

    Manbeck, Harvey B; Hofstetter, Daniel W; Murphy, Dennis J; Puri, Virendra M

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess (1) how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2) from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3) whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated. PMID:27303661

  16. Providing Formative Feedback From a Summative Computer-aided Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Sewell, Robert D. E.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives To examine the effectiveness of providing formative feedback for summative computer-aided assessment. Design Two groups of first-year undergraduate life science students in pharmacy and neuroscience who were studying an e-learning package in a common pharmacology module were presented with a computer-based summative assessment. A sheet with individualized feedback derived from each of the 5 results sections of the assessment was provided to each student. Students were asked via a questionnaire to evaluate the form and method of feedback. Assessment The students were able to reflect on their performance and use the feedback provided to guide their future study or revision. There was no significant difference between the responses from pharmacy and neuroscience students. Students' responses on the questionnaire indicated a generally positive reaction to this form of feedback. Conclusions Findings suggest that additional formative assessment conveyed by this style and method would be appreciated and valued by students. PMID:17533442

  17. Decade of karst risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yolkin, Vladimir

    2010-05-01

    Karst is one of the most hazardous processes on the Earth, at about 13% of the Russian area, including more than 300 towns and thousands of smaller settlements with 19% of the total population of Russia, are subject to karst deformations (Ragozin, 1994). During the time period 2000-2004, regional karst hazard and risk assessment was developed as an example of the Tatarstan Republic (Ragozin and Yolkin, 2003). The published paper was the first Russian research paper dedicated the technique and cartographic examples of probabilistic-deterministic risk assessment from karst processes. At present time, the technique of assessment of karst risk is improved, as well as investigations with reference to various areal or linear recipients are performed. In particular, for the pipeline systems the assessment of karst economic risk adapts, according to two scenarios: the pessimistic one (the most adverse in consequences) and the most probable (Yolkin and Anikeev, 2007, Yolkin, 2008,2009). By karst risk we mean the probabilistic index of hazard of karst and karst-suffosion sinkholes and surface settlements established for a certain object as it possible losses in various spheres for a given time period. Quantitative karst-hazard and risk assessment is carried out on the basis of the analysis of geological structure of territory, hydrogeological and engineering-geological conditions of territory, identification and prediction of karst hazards in time and space, assessment of vulnerability of objects to karst hazards, ranking and mapping of karst hazards as well as karst economic, social risks of losses. The obtained values of economic or social risk are the basis for choosing engineering protection measures, alternative design solutions and for estimating service conditions. It is necessary to mention that the procedure of vulnerability assessment is poorly developed with reference not only to karst sinkholes, but also to dangerous geological processes in general. For

  18. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    PubMed Central

    Elwyn, Glyn; Dannenberg, Michelle; Blaine, Arianna; Poddar, Urbashi; Durand, Marie-Anne

    2016-01-01

    Objective Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. Design Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing interest policies and disclosure forms. Results We contacted 25 organisations likely to meet the inclusion criteria. 12 eligible organisations provided data. 11 organisations did not reply and 2 declined to participate. Most patient decision aid developers recognise the need to consider the issue of competing interests. Assessment processes vary widely and, for the most part, are insufficiently robust to minimise the risk of competing interests. Only half of the 12 organisations had competing interest policies. Some considered disclosure to be sufficient, while others imposed differing levels of exclusion. Conclusions Patient decision aid developers do not have a consistent approach to managing competing interests. Some have developed policies and procedures, while others pay no attention to the issue. As is the case for clinical practice guidelines, increasing attention will need to be given to how the competing interests of contributors of evidence-based publications may influence materials, especially if they are designed for patient use. PMID:27612542

  19. The Relational-Behavior Model: A Pilot Assessment Study for At-Risk College Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chandler, Donald S., Jr.; Perkins, Michele D.

    2007-01-01

    This pilot study examined the relational-behavior model (RBM) as an HIV/AIDS assessment tool for at-risk college populations. Based on this theory, a survey was constructed to assess the six areas associated with HIV/AIDS prevention: personal awareness, knowledge deficiency, relational skills, HIV/STD stigmatization, community awareness, and…

  20. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  1. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  2. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  3. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  4. Assessing business responses to HIV / AIDS in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Roberts, M; Wangombe, J

    1995-01-01

    A consulting firm conducted interviews with managers of 16 businesses in 3 Kenyan cities, representatives of 2 trade unions, focus groups with workers at 13 companies, and an analysis of financial/labor data from 4 companies. It then did a needs assessment. The business types were light industry, manufacturing companies, tourism organizations, transport firms, agro-industrial and plantation businesses, and the service industry. Only one company followed all the workplace policy principles recommended by the World Health Organization and the International Labor Organization. Six businesses required all applicants and/or employees to undergo HIV testing. All their managers claimed that they would not discriminate against HIV-infected workers. Many workers thought that they would be fired if they were--or were suspected to be--HIV positive. Lack of a non-discrimination policy brings about worker mistrust of management. 11 companies had some type of HIV/AIDS education program. All the programs generated positive feedback. The main reasons for not providing HIV/AIDS education for the remaining 5 companies were: no employee requests, fears that it would be taboo, and assumptions that workers could receive adequate information elsewhere. More than 90% of all companies distributed condoms. 60% offered sexually transmitted disease diagnosis and treatment. About 33% offered counseling. Four companies provided volunteer HIV testing. Almost 50% of companies received financial or other external support for their programs. Most managers thought AIDS to be a problem mainly with manual staff and not with professional staff. Almost all businesses offered some medical benefits. The future impact of HIV/AIDS would be $90/employee/year (by 2005, $260) due to health care costs, absenteeism, retraining, and burial benefits. The annual costs of a comprehensive workplace HIV/AIDS prevention program varied from $18 to $54/worker at one company.

  5. Assessing business responses to HIV / AIDS in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Roberts, M; Wangombe, J

    1995-01-01

    A consulting firm conducted interviews with managers of 16 businesses in 3 Kenyan cities, representatives of 2 trade unions, focus groups with workers at 13 companies, and an analysis of financial/labor data from 4 companies. It then did a needs assessment. The business types were light industry, manufacturing companies, tourism organizations, transport firms, agro-industrial and plantation businesses, and the service industry. Only one company followed all the workplace policy principles recommended by the World Health Organization and the International Labor Organization. Six businesses required all applicants and/or employees to undergo HIV testing. All their managers claimed that they would not discriminate against HIV-infected workers. Many workers thought that they would be fired if they were--or were suspected to be--HIV positive. Lack of a non-discrimination policy brings about worker mistrust of management. 11 companies had some type of HIV/AIDS education program. All the programs generated positive feedback. The main reasons for not providing HIV/AIDS education for the remaining 5 companies were: no employee requests, fears that it would be taboo, and assumptions that workers could receive adequate information elsewhere. More than 90% of all companies distributed condoms. 60% offered sexually transmitted disease diagnosis and treatment. About 33% offered counseling. Four companies provided volunteer HIV testing. Almost 50% of companies received financial or other external support for their programs. Most managers thought AIDS to be a problem mainly with manual staff and not with professional staff. Almost all businesses offered some medical benefits. The future impact of HIV/AIDS would be $90/employee/year (by 2005, $260) due to health care costs, absenteeism, retraining, and burial benefits. The annual costs of a comprehensive workplace HIV/AIDS prevention program varied from $18 to $54/worker at one company. PMID:12289839

  6. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  7. CART V: recent advancements in computer-aided camouflage assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Thomas; Müller, Markus

    2011-05-01

    In order to facilitate systematic, computer aided improvements of camouflage and concealment assessment methods, the software system CART (Camouflage Assessment in Real-Time) was built up for the camouflage assessment of objects in multispectral image sequences (see contributions to SPIE 2007-2010 [1], [2], [3], [4]). It comprises a semi-automatic marking of target objects (ground truth generation) including their propagation over the image sequence and the evaluation via user-defined feature extractors as well as methods to assess the object's movement conspicuity. In this fifth part in an annual series at the SPIE conference in Orlando, this paper presents the enhancements over the recent year and addresses the camouflage assessment of static and moving objects in multispectral image data that can show noise or image artefacts. The presented methods fathom the correlations between image processing and camouflage assessment. A novel algorithm is presented based on template matching to assess the structural inconspicuity of an object objectively and quantitatively. The results can easily be combined with an MTI (moving target indication) based movement conspicuity assessment function in order to explore the influence of object movement to a camouflage effect in different environments. As the results show, the presented methods contribute to a significant benefit in the field of camouflage assessment.

  8. Computer-aided methods for evaluating cancer risk in miners due to radiation exposure.

    PubMed

    Domański, T; Kluszczyński, D; Chruścielewski, W; Olszewski, J

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents some aspects of radiation hazard which occurs in a non-nuclear sector of industry, namely radiation hazard in non-uranium underground mines. The radiation hazard is caused in each type of underground mine by the naturally occurring noble radioactive gas-radon (222Rn) and radioactive products of its decay 218Po, 214Pb, 214Bi/214Po the so-called 'radon daughters' occurring in the mines' air. The paper presents the concept of how to provide a reliable system of assessment of miners' exposure by application of representative individual dosimetry, and also presents principles of computer-aided methods for interpretation of the results of miner's dosimetry useful for conversion of dosimetry data to the term of expected risk of cancer caused by exposure at miner's workplaces. The representative Individual Dosimetry system strengthened by computer-aided methods of analysis of results provided essential information on radiation cancer risk for miners employed in coal mines, metal-ore mines, chemical raw material mines in Poland. The coefficient of annual cancer risk induction is 1.5 x 10(-4) year-1 for coal mines, 1.40 x 10(-4) year-1 for metal ore mines and 1.5 x 10(-4) year-1 for chemical raw material mines. The radiation risk appears to be of the same magnitude as the conventional risk of life loss at work-related accidents. The average Lost Life Expectancy coefficient for both the radiation risk and conventional risk are 0.5 and 0.3 year per each miner, respectively. PMID:8019199

  9. Financial Aid and Persistence in Community Colleges: Assessing the Effectiveness of Federal and State Financial Aid Programs in Oklahoma

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mendoza, Pilar; Mendez, Jesse P.; Malcolm, Zaria

    2009-01-01

    Using a longitudinal, state-wide dataset, this study assessed the effect of financial aid on the persistence of full-time students in associate's degree programs at the Oklahoma community colleges. Three financial-aid sources were examined: the Oklahoma Higher Learning Access Program (OHLAP), Pell grants, and Stafford loans. Results indicate that…

  10. Predictors of Intention to Change HIV Sexual and Injection Risk Behaviors among Heterosexual Methamphetamine-Using Offenders in Drug Treatment: A Test of the AIDS Risk Reduction Model

    PubMed Central

    Brecht, Mary-Lynn; Stein, Judith; Evans, Elizabeth; Murphy, Debra A.; Longshore, Douglas

    2013-01-01

    This study tested components of the AIDS Risk Reduction Model (ARRM) for a sample of methamphetamine-using offenders in drug treatment. Analyses included the first two stages of the ARRM, problem recognition and intention to reduce risk (potential precursors to later possible behavior change), assessing predictors of intentions to increase condom use, reduce other sexual risk, and disinfect needles. Path analysis results showed potential applicability of the ARRM as a basis for intervention development for this population. There was a consistent effect of self-efficacy for risk reduction strategies, as well as direct or indirect effects of problem recognition factors (AIDS knowledge, peer norms), on the three intention indicators. Prior sex risk behavior (condom use) was directly negatively related to intention to use condoms; prior needle use was indirectly negatively related to intention to disinfect. Intention to use condoms was lower for females. Results can help identify areas for intervention development. PMID:18214688

  11. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  13. [Predictive microbiology and risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Hildebrandt, G; Kleer, J

    2004-05-01

    Predictive microbiology (predictive modelling PM), in spite of its limits and short-comings, may often contribute to a reduction of the problems arising when HACCP systems are established or microbiological risk assessment is done. Having identified the agents which constitute a risk and the contamination rate and density in the raw material, the influences of production steps and storage on these microorganisms have to be examined. Finally, there should be an exposure assessment, i.e. an estimate of the contamination density in the final product at the time of consumption. Should the exposure assessment together with data from dose response assessments reveal a potential for intake of inacceptable numbers of organisms, the risk identified has to be characterized. As a consequence, risk management should result in a modification of the composition of the product and/or of the production process so that the risk does not surpass an acceptable limit. For this approach it is indispensable to have product- and process-specific information on the multiplication of pathogens prior to heat treatment, on reduction of their density by thermal treatment and on growth or dying of organisms having survived heat treatment or penetrated into the product after heat treatment as post-process contaminant. Commonly, challenge tests are conducted to provide such information. But they are time consuming and, as their results are only valid for the specific product tested and the conditions prevailing during the experiment, the have to be repeated if there is any modification of intrinsic or extrinsic factors. At least partially, the PM may replace the challenge tests. The efficiency of the models is rated particularly high if they are used already at the stage of product development when the question has to be answered whether a planned recipe or process of production are already save or have to be modified to become save. PMID:15233338

  14. Thinking about "Think Again" in Canada: assessing a social marketing HIV/AIDS prevention campaign.

    PubMed

    Lombardo, Anthony P; Léger, Yves A

    2007-06-01

    The Canadian "Think Again" social marketing HIV/AIDS prevention campaign, adapted from an American effort, encourages gay men to rethink their assumptions about their partners' HIV statuses and the risks of unsafe sex with them. To improve future efforts, existing HIV/AIDS prevention initiatives require critical reflection. While a formal evaluation of this campaign has been carried out elsewhere, here we use the campaign as a social marketing case study to illustrate its strengths and weaknesses, as a learning tool for other campaigns. After describing the campaign and its key results, we assess how it utilized central tenets of the social marketing process, such as formative research and the marketing mix. We then speak to the importance of theoretical influence in campaign design and the need to account for social-contextual factors in safer sex decision making. We conclude with a summary of the lessons learned from the assessment of this campaign.

  15. Thinking about "Think Again" in Canada: assessing a social marketing HIV/AIDS prevention campaign.

    PubMed

    Lombardo, Anthony P; Léger, Yves A

    2007-06-01

    The Canadian "Think Again" social marketing HIV/AIDS prevention campaign, adapted from an American effort, encourages gay men to rethink their assumptions about their partners' HIV statuses and the risks of unsafe sex with them. To improve future efforts, existing HIV/AIDS prevention initiatives require critical reflection. While a formal evaluation of this campaign has been carried out elsewhere, here we use the campaign as a social marketing case study to illustrate its strengths and weaknesses, as a learning tool for other campaigns. After describing the campaign and its key results, we assess how it utilized central tenets of the social marketing process, such as formative research and the marketing mix. We then speak to the importance of theoretical influence in campaign design and the need to account for social-contextual factors in safer sex decision making. We conclude with a summary of the lessons learned from the assessment of this campaign. PMID:17558789

  16. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  17. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  18. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  19. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    PubMed

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  20. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  1. A Brief Assessment for HIV Risk: The TCU HVHP Form.

    PubMed

    Rowan, Grace A; Joe, George W; Lehman, Wayne E K; Knight, Kevin

    2016-07-01

    Targeted HIV screens may help identify some risk-related concerns of drug-using offenders. The present study describes the Texas Christian University HIV/Hepatitis Risk Assessment (TCU HVHP) form, a 19-item self-report instrument measuring HIV and hepatitis risks based on a sample (N = 1,056) of offenders in eight prisons. Principal components analysis indicated four scales (Injection Risk, Condom Attitudes, Sex Risk, and AIDS Concern) with reliable psychometric properties with coefficient α reliabilities ranging from .72 to .88. Concurrent validities indicated the four scales were related to motivation for treatment, level of drug use, psychosocial functioning, and criminal thinking, although the patterns varied by gender. The TCU HVHP Form should be attractive to programs needing a brief assessment measuring HIV risk behaviors, attitudes toward condom use, and concerns about acquiring and transmitting HIV. PMID:27302708

  2. A Brief Assessment for HIV Risk: The TCU HVHP Form

    PubMed Central

    Rowan, Grace A.; Joe, George W.; Lehman, Wayne E. K.; Knight, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Targeted HIV screens may help identify some risk-related concerns of drug-using offenders. The present study describes the Texas Christian University HIV/Hepatitis Risk Assessment (TCU HVHP) form, a 19-item self-report instrument measuring HIV and hepatitis risks based on a sample (N = 1,056) of offenders in eight prisons. Principal components analysis indicated four scales (Injection Risk, Condom Attitudes, Sex Risk, and AIDS Concern) with reliable psychometric properties with coefficient α reliabilities ranging from .72 to .88. Concurrent validities indicated the four scales were related to motivation for treatment, level of drug use, psychosocial functioning, and criminal thinking, although the patterns varied by gender. The TCU HVHP Form should be attractive to programs needing a brief assessment measuring HIV risk behaviors, attitudes toward condom use, and concerns about acquiring and transmitting HIV. PMID:27302708

  3. Disability and work: risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Meusz, C

    Recent parliamentary debate has brought the rights of disabled people back into the spotlight of media attention. In the workplace, the occupational health nurse (OHN) is uniquely placed to make a positive contribution to the achievement of equal opportunities for people with disabilities. The author describes a risk assessment approach to the occupational health and safety of disabled persons and their employers. Such approaches can help to ensure that the work skills of all employees are used to maximum potential.

  4. Risk assessment of shellfish toxins.

    PubMed

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-11-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  5. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  6. AIDS: Are Children at Risk? ERIC Digest 16.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    ERIC Clearinghouse on Teacher Education, Washington, DC.

    Lack of knowledge and misinformation about Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), a fatal disease with no cure or vaccine, has caused widespread public concern. Education is an effective way to reduce fears and prevent the spread of the disease. Public school personnel must have accurate information about AIDS in order to make suitable…

  7. Evaluation of an AIDS Prevention Program for "At Risk" Parolees.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wexler, Harry K.; And Others

    Surveys of the nation's jail and prison populations suggest that about 75% have used illicit drugs at one time or another. Incidence rates for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) cases among prison inmates is much higher in correctional systems than in the population as a whole. In this study an AIDS prevention and education program for…

  8. High-risk behaviors among adult men and women in Botswana: Implications for HIV/AIDS prevention efforts

    PubMed Central

    Keetile, Mpho

    2014-01-01

    Abstract The government of Botswana has been spending a lot of money in the prevention, treatment, care and support for HIV/AIDS patient for decades. This paper uses data from the third Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS III) to explore high-risk behaviors of adults and how they affect government efforts to stop the spread of HIV/AIDS. The objective of this paper is to fill in the gap on the assessment of high-risk behaviors associated with HIV/AIDS and their implications on HIV/AIDS prevention efforts. A nationally representative sample of 10,159 men and women aged 20–64 years who had successfully completed the BAIS III individual questionnaire were used in the study. Both descriptive and binary logistic regression analyses were used for analysis. Crude odds ratios were obtained from gross effects model while adjusted odds ratios (AOR) were obtained from the net effects model. Statistically significant association was observed between multiple current partners and alcohol consumption (AOR = 1.5), drug abuse (AOR = 1.7), transactional sex (AOR = 2.6) and intergenerational sex (AOR = 1.07). Furthermore, statistically significant association was seen for inconsistent condom use and having tested for HIV (AOR = 1.5). These results show a worrying tendency that despite government's efforts to stop the spread of HIV/AIDS, adults in Botswana continue to indulge in high-risk behaviors. Therefore, any programs and policies on HIV/AIDS should first target these high-risk behaviors. PMID:25293869

  9. High-risk behaviors among adult men and women in Botswana: implications for HIV/AIDS prevention efforts.

    PubMed

    Keetile, Mpho

    2014-01-01

    The government of Botswana has been spending a lot of money in the prevention, treatment, care and support for HIV/AIDS patient for decades. This paper uses data from the third Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS III) to explore high-risk behaviors of adults and how they affect government efforts to stop the spread of HIV/AIDS. The objective of this paper is to fill in the gap on the assessment of high-risk behaviors associated with HIV/AIDS and their implications on HIV/AIDS prevention efforts. A nationally representative sample of 10,159 men and women aged 20-64 years who had successfully completed the BAIS III individual questionnaire were used in the study. Both descriptive and binary logistic regression analyses were used for analysis. Crude odds ratios were obtained from gross effects model while adjusted odds ratios (AOR) were obtained from the net effects model. Statistically significant association was observed between multiple current partners and alcohol consumption (AOR = 1.5), drug abuse (AOR = 1.7), transactional sex (AOR = 2.6) and intergenerational sex (AOR = 1.07). Furthermore, statistically significant association was seen for inconsistent condom use and having tested for HIV (AOR = 1.5). These results show a worrying tendency that despite government's efforts to stop the spread of HIV/AIDS, adults in Botswana continue to indulge in high-risk behaviors. Therefore, any programs and policies on HIV/AIDS should first target these high-risk behaviors.

  10. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  11. ECO 201: Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objectives of this course is to provide participants with knowledge about the fundamentals of ecological risk assessment. A brief history of how ecological risk assessment has evolved over time and how it is both similar to and different from human health risk assessment wil...

  12. Investigating the Impact of Financial Aid on Student Dropout Risks: Racial and Ethnic Differences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Rong; DesJardins, Stephen L.

    2010-01-01

    This study focuses on the differences in college student dropout behavior among racial/ethnic groups. We employ event history methods and data from the Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS) and National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) surveys to investigate how financial aid may differentially influence dropout risks among these student…

  13. Reaching High-Risk Youth through Model AIDS Education Programs: A Case by Case Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Center for Population Options, Washington, DC.

    This report evaluates the High Risk Youth Demonstration Project, which is predicated on the idea that youth-serving agencies (YSAs) can be key sources for adolescent AIDS education. When the Center for Population Options (CPO) conceptualized a strategy for bringing AIDS education to underserved youth, it was responding to the following three areas…

  14. Risk of Deaths, AIDS-Defining and Non-AIDS Defining Events among Ghanaians on Long-Term Combination Antiretroviral Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Sarfo, Fred Stephen; Sarfo, Maame Anima; Norman, Betty; Phillips, Richard; Bedu-Addo, George; Chadwick, David

    2014-01-01

    Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has been widely available in Ghana since 2004. The aim of this cohort study was to assess the incidences of death, AIDS-defining events and non-AIDS defining events and associated risk factors amongst patients initiating cART in a large treatment centre. Clinical and laboratory data were extracted from clinic and hospital case notes for patients initiating cART between 2004 and 2010 and clinical events graded according to recognised definitions for AIDS, non-AIDS events (NADE) and death, with additional events not included in such definitions such as malaria also included. The cumulative incidence of events was calculated using Kaplan Meier analysis, and association of risk factors with events by Cox proportional hazards regression. Data were closed for analysis on 31st December, 2011 after a median follow-up of 30 months (range, 0–90 months). Amongst 4,039 patients starting cART at a median CD4 count of 133 cells/mm3, there were 324 (8%) confirmed deaths, with an event rate of 28.83 (95% CI 25.78–32.15) deaths per 1000-person follow-up years; the commonest established causes were pulmonary TB and gastroenteritis. There were 681 AIDS-defining events (60.60 [56.14–65.33] per 1000 person years) with pulmonary TB and chronic diarrhoea being the most frequent causes. Forty-one NADEs were recorded (3.64 [2.61–4.95] per 1000 person years), of which hepatic and cardiovascular events were most common. Other common events recorded outside these definitions included malaria (746 events) and respiratory tract infections (666 events). Overall 24% of patients were lost-to-follow-up. Alongside expected risk factors, stavudine use was associated with AIDS [adjusted HR of 1.08 (0.90–1.30)] and death (adjusted HR of 1.60 [1.21–2.11]). Whilst frequency of AIDS and deaths in this cohort were similar to those described in other sub-Saharan African cohorts, rates of NADEs were lower and far exceeded by events such as malaria and

  15. Risk of deaths, AIDS-defining and non-AIDS defining events among Ghanaians on long-term combination antiretroviral therapy.

    PubMed

    Sarfo, Fred Stephen; Sarfo, Maame Anima; Norman, Betty; Phillips, Richard; Bedu-Addo, George; Chadwick, David

    2014-01-01

    Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has been widely available in Ghana since 2004. The aim of this cohort study was to assess the incidences of death, AIDS-defining events and non-AIDS defining events and associated risk factors amongst patients initiating cART in a large treatment centre. Clinical and laboratory data were extracted from clinic and hospital case notes for patients initiating cART between 2004 and 2010 and clinical events graded according to recognised definitions for AIDS, non-AIDS events (NADE) and death, with additional events not included in such definitions such as malaria also included. The cumulative incidence of events was calculated using Kaplan Meier analysis, and association of risk factors with events by Cox proportional hazards regression. Data were closed for analysis on 31st December, 2011 after a median follow-up of 30 months (range, 0-90 months). Amongst 4,039 patients starting cART at a median CD4 count of 133 cells/mm3, there were 324 (8%) confirmed deaths, with an event rate of 28.83 (95% CI 25.78-32.15) deaths per 1000-person follow-up years; the commonest established causes were pulmonary TB and gastroenteritis. There were 681 AIDS-defining events (60.60 [56.14-65.33] per 1000 person years) with pulmonary TB and chronic diarrhoea being the most frequent causes. Forty-one NADEs were recorded (3.64 [2.61-4.95] per 1000 person years), of which hepatic and cardiovascular events were most common. Other common events recorded outside these definitions included malaria (746 events) and respiratory tract infections (666 events). Overall 24% of patients were lost-to-follow-up. Alongside expected risk factors, stavudine use was associated with AIDS [adjusted HR of 1.08 (0.90-1.30)] and death (adjusted HR of 1.60 [1.21-2.11]). Whilst frequency of AIDS and deaths in this cohort were similar to those described in other sub-Saharan African cohorts, rates of NADEs were lower and far exceeded by events such as malaria and respiratory

  16. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  17. Why Breast Cancer Risk by the Numbers Is Not Enough: Evaluation of a Decision Aid in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Numerate Women

    PubMed Central

    Yi, Haeseung; Xiao, Tong; Thomas, Parijatham; Aguirre, Alejandra; Smalletz, Cindy; David, Raven; Crew, Katherine

    2015-01-01

    Background Breast cancer risk assessment including genetic testing can be used to classify people into different risk groups with screening and preventive interventions tailored to the needs of each group, yet the implementation of risk-stratified breast cancer prevention in primary care settings is complex. Objective To address barriers to breast cancer risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention strategies in primary care settings, we developed a Web-based decision aid, RealRisks, that aims to improve preference-based decision-making for breast cancer prevention, particularly in low-numerate women. Methods RealRisks incorporates experience-based dynamic interfaces to communicate risk aimed at reducing inaccurate risk perceptions, with modules on breast cancer risk, genetic testing, and chemoprevention that are tailored. To begin, participants learn about risk by interacting with two games of experience-based risk interfaces, demonstrating average 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk. We conducted four focus groups in English-speaking women (age ≥18 years), a questionnaire completed before and after interacting with the decision aid, and a semistructured group discussion. We employed a mixed-methods approach to assess accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk and acceptability of RealRisks. The qualitative analysis of the semistructured discussions assessed understanding of risk, risk models, and risk appropriate prevention strategies. Results Among 34 participants, mean age was 53.4 years, 62% (21/34) were Hispanic, and 41% (14/34) demonstrated low numeracy. According to the Gail breast cancer risk assessment tool (BCRAT), the mean 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk were 1.11% (SD 0.77) and 7.46% (SD 2.87), respectively. After interacting with RealRisks, the difference in perceived and estimated breast cancer risk according to BCRAT improved for 5-year risk (P=.008). In the qualitative analysis, we identified potential barriers to adopting risk

  18. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  19. Metabolism, variability and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dorne, J L C M

    2010-02-01

    improve the risk assessment of chemical mixtures were explored (1) harmonization of the use of uncertainty factors for human and ecological risk assessment using mechanistic descriptors (2) use of toxicokinetics interaction data to derive UFs for chemical mixtures. The use of toxicokinetics data in risk assessment are discussed together with future approaches including sound statistical approaches to optimise predictability of models and recombinant technology/toxicokinetics assays to identify metabolic routes for chemicals and screen mixtures of environmental health importance. PMID:19932147

  20. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  1. Computer Aided Safety Assessment(CASA) Tool for ISS Payloads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hochstein, Jason; Festa, Fabrizio

    2010-09-01

    In an effort to streamline the processes established by the partners of the International Space Station(ISS) to certify the safety of hardware and experiments destined for the Station, the European Space Agency’s(ESA) ISS System Safety Team is developing the Computer Aided Safety Assessment(CASA) tool suite. These software tools guide payload developers through the creation process of two types of standard payload hazard reports via a series of questions following a predetermined logic. The responses provided by the user are used by the CASA system to complete the majority of each hazard report requisite for payload flight safety reviews, employing consistent, approved descriptions of most hazards, hazard causes, controls and verification methods. Though some manual inputs will still be required to complete these reports, working with CASA will considerably reduce the amount of time necessary to review the documentation by agency safety authorities.

  2. Assessment of Training Needs for Arizona Student Financial Aid Practitioners. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fenske, Robert H.

    The present and future training needs of financial aid practitioners (financial aid officers, counselors, and support staff personnel) at Arizona colleges and government agencies were assessed. Attention was directed to the literature on training and programs for financial aid practitioners, as well as the possibilities of developing a…

  3. Teachers' Attitudes toward HIV/AIDS: An American National Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brucker, Benjamin W.; Hall, Wayne H.

    1996-01-01

    Examined teachers' attitudes toward HIV/AIDS. A random sample of 1,500 teachers completed a 22-item questionnaire. Results show that respondents were opposed to the concept of testing for AIDS, although females were more positive toward the idea than were males. The majority of the respondents favored the idea of providing an HIV/AIDS awareness…

  4. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  5. RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

  6. Determinants of intentions of Junior High School students to become sexually active and use condoms: implications for reduction and prevention of AIDS risk.

    PubMed

    Epstein, J A; Dusenbury, L; Botvin, G J; Diaz, T

    1994-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine factors associated with young adolescents' increased risk for AIDS. A multiethnic sample of 303 seventh-grade students in three schools in the greater New York area completed questionnaires assessing their basic demographic characteristics (gender and ethnicity), AIDS knowledge, substance use (cigarette smoking, alcohol use), and decision-making skills. AIDS knowledge, substance use, decision-making skills, gender, and ethnicity predicted intentions to engage in sexual behavior in the future. Relevant knowledge of AIDS was associated with lower intentions to engage in sexual behavior in the future. More frequent substance use, less frequent use of decision-making skills, and being male increased intentions to engage in sexual behavior in the future. Our findings are discussed in terms of their implications for education and prevention of adolescent sexual activity and AIDS-risk reduction. PMID:7862778

  7. Assessing research risks systematically: the net risks test.

    PubMed

    Wendler, D; Miller, F G

    2007-08-01

    Dual-track assessment directs research ethics committees (RECs) to assess the risks of research interventions based on the unclear distinction between therapeutic and non-therapeutic interventions. The net risks test, in contrast, relies on the clinically familiar method of assessing the risks and benefits of interventions in comparison to the available alternatives and also focuses attention of the RECs on the central challenge of protecting research participants. PMID:17664310

  8. Imagining HIV/AIDS: morality and perceptions of personal risk in Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Smith, Daniel Jordan

    2003-01-01

    The disparity between people's knowledge about HIV/AIDS and the extent to which they take measures to protect themselves is one of the most vexing issues for public health workers and social science analysts. This paper aims to explain some of this discrepancy, using survey and ethnographic data collected among young rural-urban migrants in Aba and Kano, two cities in Nigeria. The paper argues that many young Nigerian migrants do not perceive significant personal risk because they construct the risk of AIDS in ethical and moral terms, projecting immorality and danger onto imaginary others. To understand the way young Nigerians interpret risk, the paper focuses on four related issues: (1) the organization and meaning of sexual relationships; (2) the intersection of gender and ideas about reproduction; (3) the perception of AIDS as a disease without hope; and (4) the importance of religion in young people's framing of moralities and ethical choices about sexuality and HIV/AIDS.

  9. AIDS awareness and attitudes among Yemeni young people living in high-risk areas.

    PubMed

    Al-Serouri, A W; Anaam, M; Al-Iryani, B; Al Deram, A; Ramaroson, S

    2010-03-01

    Despite te low rate of infection in Yemen, there are concerns about the possible spread of HIV among high-risk and vulnerable groups. A community-based study was made in 2005 of AIDS awareness and attitudes among 601 young people aged 15-24 years from low-income, high-risk neighbourhoods in Aden. Young people lacked proper information about HIV/AIDS. Although 89% had heard of AIDS, fewer (46%) could name 3 ways of transmission or 3 ways to avoid infection (28%). Misconceptions about modes of transmissions were prevalent and many young people believed that they faced little or no risk. There were intolerant attitudes towards AIDS patients. About half the young people knew that prostitution and homosexuality existed in their area. PMID:20795436

  10. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  11. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  12. Assessment of Lecture Strategy with Different Teaching Aids

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Manoj; Kumar, Jayballabh; Kumar, Gaurav; Kapoor, Sangeeta

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives: Medical/dental colleges in Northern India cater to students with diverse backgrounds, mother tongues, levels of comprehending English, and intelligence levels. This study was conducted to identify lecture strategy and teaching aid best suited for North Indian dental and medical students. It was conducted in two parts – 1. Survey of teachers’ and students’ opinion to obtain their preferences in teaching-learning practices followed in a conventional lecture, and 2. Comparison of students’ performances after a single trial lecture with different groups of students, using different teaching aids (TAs). Materials and Methods: Opinions of 33 faculty teaching first year dental/ medical students and 506 volunteer students (320 female) were compiled. Students were divided into four groups. A single trial lecture was held with each group (on the same topic, using identical lesson plan, by the same teacher) using a different teaching aid with each group. Lecture strategy was designed according to students’ preferences (as obtained from opinion survey) regarding language of instruction and the number of mental breaks. TAs used with different groups were chalk and board (C&B), PowerPoint (PPT), overhead projector (OHP), and a combination of C&B and PPT. Pre- and post-tests using multiple choice questions were conducted with each group. Results of post-test questionnaire and feedback from faculty attending the lecture were assessed for students’ satisfaction and attentiveness in all four groups. Results: Survey results indicated that although 97.6% students believed they had good/fair proficiency in English, 83.6% preferred being taught in a combination of English and Hindi; 44.3% students preferred C&B, 40.1% preferred PPT and 15.6% preferred the use of OHP as TA. After conducting a trial lecture with different TAs with each group, more than 90% students expressed satisfaction with the TA used for that group. Significantly better

  13. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  14. Computer-aided assessment of scoliosis on posteroanterior radiographs.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Junhua; Lou, Edmond; Hill, Douglas L; Raso, James V; Wang, Yuanyuan; Le, Lawrence H; Shi, Xinling

    2010-02-01

    In order to reduce the observer variability in radiographic scoliosis assessment, a computer-aided system was developed. The system semi-automatically measured the Cobb angle and vertebral rotation on posteroanterior radiographs based on Hough transform and snake model, respectively. Both algorithms were integrated with the shape priors to improve the performance. The system was tested twice by each of three observers. The intraobserver and interobserver reliability analyses resulted in the intraclass correlation coefficients higher than 0.9 and 0.8 for Cobb measurement on 70 radiographs and rotation measurement on 156 vertebrae, respectively. Both the Cobb and rotation measurements resulted in the average intraobserver and interobserver errors less than 2 degrees and 3 degrees , respectively. There were no significant differences in the measurement variability between groups of curve location, curve magnitude, observer experience, and vertebra location. Compared with the documented results, measurement variability is reduced by using the developed system. This system can help orthopedic surgeons assess scoliosis more reliably.

  15. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects. PMID:15260335

  16. The roles of labor migrants' wives in HIV/AIDS risk and prevention in Tajikistan.

    PubMed

    Golobof, Alexandra; Weine, Stevan; Bahromov, Mahbat; Luo, Jing

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to build formative knowledge regarding labor migrants' wives' knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding HIV/AIDS risk and protection that would inform developing innovative HIV prevention strategies. This was a collaborative ethnography in Tajikistan that included minimally structured interviews and focused field observations with 30 Tajik wives in Dushanbe married to Tajik male migrant workers currently working in Moscow. The results documented the wives' concerns over their husbands' safety in Moscow and the difficulties of living without husbands. In a male-dominated society, gender norms limit the wives' abilities to protect themselves and their husbands from HIV/AIDS. They have some awareness of HIV/AIDS, but limited abilities to speak about sexual activity, HIV/AIDS, condoms, and HIV testing. Wives do not use condoms with their husbands and depend upon their husband's role as their protector. Wives often turn for support to their "circle of friends" or to a primary care nurse for support, but seldom do these relationships focus on preventing HIV/AIDS. To respond to HIV/AIDS risks amongst the wives of Tajik male migrant workers in Moscow, preventive interventions could build upon migrants' wives' role as the primary family caregiver and their existing sources of social support from women's circles and nurses. The overall intervention strategy could be to expand their role as family caregivers to include HIV/AIDS protection, through enhancing their HIV/AIDS knowledge and prevention skills and negotiation strategies with their husbands. PMID:21218281

  17. The Roles of Labor Migrants’ Wives in HIV/AIDS Risk and Prevention in Tajikistan

    PubMed Central

    Golobof, Alexandra; Weine, Stevan; Bahromov, Mahbat; Luo, Jing

    2013-01-01

    This study aimed to build formative knowledge regarding labor migrants' wives' knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding HIV/AIDS risk and protection that would inform developing innovative HIV prevention strategies. This was a collaborative ethnography in Tajikistan that included minimally structured interviews and focused field observations with 30 Tajik wives in Dushanbe married to Tajik male migrant workers currently working in Moscow. The results documented the wives' concerns over their husbands’ safety in Moscow and the difficulties of living without husbands. In a male-dominated society, gender norms limit the wives' abilities to protect themselves and their husbands from HIV/AIDS. They have some awareness of HIV/AIDS, but limited abilities to speak about sexual activity, HIV/AIDS, condoms, and HIV testing. Wives do not use condoms with their husbands and depend upon their husband's role as their protector. Wives often turn for support to their “circle of friends” or to a primary care nurse for support, but seldom do these relationships focus on preventing HIV/AIDS. To respond to HIV/AIDS risks amongst the wives of Tajik male migrant workers in Moscow, preventive interventions could build upon migrants' wives' role as the primary family caregiver and their existing sources of social support from women's circles and nurses. The overall intervention strategy could be to expand their role as family caregivers to include HIV/AIDS protection, through enhancing their HIV/AIDS knowledge and prevention skills and negotiation strategies with their husbands. PMID:21218281

  18. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  19. STDs and AIDS: a vicious circle of risk.

    PubMed

    Ogunseitan, O; Mariasy, J

    1989-01-01

    Research on sexually transmitted diseases (STD) shows that people who have had genital ulcer disease are more prone to get acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). In Nigeria, programs that integrate STD and AIDS prevention have been developed by the Planned Parenthood Federation. This group has organized leaders from across many professions in the media and in education to create workshops throughout the country. These education programs use films and lectures in post- primary schools, and sex education is provided in schools and social organizations. It is believed that there is a vast underreporting of STD's here, and that few people seek treatment. Since there is no national free public health service, many people get pay chemists who distribute antibiotics. This has caused the development of antibiotic resistant strains, of STDs. The possible explanation for low number os AIDS cases may be the fact that there is a low level of genital ulcers. Recently patients seem to be developing ulcers and hot showing normal STD symptoms, which is great concern to physicians. Since Nigerians have resisted the use of condoms, prevention and control of STDS is even modify their sexual activities.

  20. Impact of national HIV and AIDS communication campaigns in South Africa to reduce HIV risk behaviour.

    PubMed

    Peltzer, Karl; Parker, Warren; Mabaso, Musawenkosi; Makonko, Elias; Zuma, Khangelani; Ramlagan, Shandir

    2012-01-01

    In South Africa social and behavioural communication interventions are a critical component of HIV/AIDS prevention, and numerous communication campaigns have been implemented intensively across the country through government initiatives and nongovernmental organisations over the past decade. The aim of this paper is to assess the reach of HIV and AIDS communication campaigns in conjunction with contributions to knowledge, attitudes, and HIV risk behaviours in the general population in South Africa. The sample included in this nationally representative cross-sectional survey was 13234 people aged 15-55 years. Overall, the study found that there was high exposure to 18 different HIV communication programmes (median 6 programmes and 14 programmes more than 30%) across different age groups. Most programmes were more often seen or heard by young people aged between 15 and 24 years. In multivariate analysis, greater exposure to HIV mass communication programmes was associated with greater HIV knowledge, condom use at last sex, having tested for HIV in the past 12 months, and less stigmatizing attitude toward PLWHA.

  1. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  2. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  3. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  4. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  5. Health Costs of Wealth Gains: Labor Migration and Perceptions of HIV/AIDS Risks in Mozambique

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Agadjanian, Victor; Arnaldo, Carlos; Cau, Boaventura

    2011-01-01

    The study employs survey data from rural Mozambique to examine how men's labor migration affects their non-migrating wives' perceptions of HIV/AIDS risks. Using a conceptual framework centered on tradeoffs between economic security and health risks that men's migration entails for their left-behind wives, it compares women married to migrants and…

  6. Perception of HIV/AIDS Risk among Urban, Low-Income Senior-Housing Residents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ward, Elijah G.; Disch, William B.; Levy, Judith A.; Schensul, Jean J.

    2004-01-01

    Despite the rising number of cases of HIV in adults over age 50, older persons rarely are considered to be at risk for HIV/AIDS, and even though they may be involved in risky behavior, such as unprotected penetrative sex, they may not consider themselves vulnerable to becoming infected. Informed awareness of risk is essential to making positive…

  7. Computer-aided assessment of diagnostic images for epidemiological research

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background Diagnostic images are often assessed for clinical outcomes using subjective methods, which are limited by the skill of the reviewer. Computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) algorithms that assist reviewers in their decisions concerning outcomes have been developed to increase sensitivity and specificity in the clinical setting. However, these systems have not been well utilized in research settings to improve the measurement of clinical endpoints. Reductions in bias through their use could have important implications for etiologic research. Methods Using the example of cortical cataract detection, we developed an algorithm for assisting a reviewer in evaluating digital images for the presence and severity of lesions. Available image processing and statistical methods that were easily implementable were used as the basis for the CAD algorithm. The performance of the system was compared to the subjective assessment of five reviewers using 60 simulated images. Cortical cataract severity scores from 0 to 16 were assigned to the images by the reviewers and the CAD system, with each image assessed twice to obtain a measure of variability. Image characteristics that affected reviewer bias were also assessed by systematically varying the appearance of the simulated images. Results The algorithm yielded severity scores with smaller bias on images where cataract severity was mild to moderate (approximately ≤ 6/16ths). On high severity images, the bias of the CAD system exceeded that of the reviewers. The variability of the CAD system was zero on repeated images but ranged from 0.48 to 1.22 for the reviewers. The direction and magnitude of the bias exhibited by the reviewers was a function of the number of cataract opacities, the shape and the contrast of the lesions in the simulated images. Conclusion CAD systems are feasible to implement with available software and can be valuable when medical images contain exposure or outcome information for etiologic research. Our

  8. [Forest health ecological risk assessment in China].

    PubMed

    Xiao, Fengjin; Ouyang, Hua; Cheng, Shulan; Zhang, Qiang

    2004-02-01

    Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management.

  9. Barriers to the Assessment of Unmet Need in Planning HIV/AIDS Prevention Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valdiserri, Ronald O.; West, Gary R.

    1994-01-01

    Major barriers to conducting needs assessment for AIDS prevention are resource deficits, technical deficits, environmental complexity, and apprehension about expectations. Comprehensive, methodologically sound assessments conducted collaboratively by consumers and providers of prevention services are essential. (SK)

  10. Review of Multi-Criteria Decision Aid for Integrated Sustainability Assessment of Urban Water Systems - MCEARD

    EPA Science Inventory

    Integrated sustainability assessment is part of a new paradigm for urban water decision making. Multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) is an integrative framework used in urban water sustainability assessment, which has a particular focus on utilising stakeholder participation. Here ...

  11. Risk of HIV dementia and opportunistic brain disease in AIDS and zidovudine therapy

    PubMed Central

    Baldeweg, T.; Catalan, J.; Gazzard, B.

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To determine the incidence of HIV dementia and opportunistic brain disease in AIDS relative to the use of licensed antiretoviral medication (zidovudine, zalcitabine, didanosine, and stavudine).
METHOD—Medical records were evaluated retrospectively in a longitudinal cohort of 1109 patients with AIDS during the period 1991-4. Treatment groups were defined by start and duration of zidovudine treatment, the drugs used most often during this period were: (a) no zidovudine, (b) zidovudine before AIDS, (c) zidovudine before and after AIDS, and (d) zidovudine used in AIDS. Main outcome measures were cumulative incidence and survival from AIDS to onset of HIV dementia, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), cerebral toxoplasmosis, and primary CNS lymphoma.
RESULTS—Risk of brain disease including HIV dementia and opportunistic brain disease was reduced in patients who started zidovudine before AIDS and continued in AIDS (relative risk (RR) 0.55, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.36-0.84) as well as zidovudine initiated in AIDS (RR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17-0.45) compared with untreated subjects. Treatment effects were not constant over time, decreasing by 14%-32% for each six months of follow up. This was supported by unadjusted incidences across groups stratified by duration of zidovudine use, indicating reduced risk with treatment for up to 18 months but not with longer duration of use of zidovudine. Other antiretroviral drugs had no significant effect, although these were used by only 14% of patients in this cohort.
CONCLUSION—The time limited but effective neuroprotection offered by zidovudine monotherapy for <18 months suggests that non-specific mechanisms of cerebral immunological defence may benefit from antiretroviral treatment. Due to the limitations of a retrospective study these findings require confirmation and further investigation in the context of current combination drug treatments.

 PMID:9667558

  12. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  13. HIV/AIDS Knowledge, Attitude and Risk Perception among Pregnant Women in a Teaching Hospital, Southwestern Nigeria

    PubMed Central

    Ojieabu, Winifred Aitalegbe; Femi-Oyewo, M. N.; Eze, Uchenna I.

    2011-01-01

    Aim: The rising HIV infection rates among women especially of child bearing age particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa expose children to increased HIV risk even before they are born. Without effective measures or awareness campaigns to deal with mother-to-child transmission, 390 000 out of the global 430 000 children newly infected with HIV during 2008 were from sub-Saharan Africa This study was undertaken to assess HIV/AIDS related knowledge, attitude and risk perception among pregnant women in Tertiary hospital, Southwestern Nigeria Method: The study was carried out using a 43- item self administered questionnaire, pretestd and administered to 403 pregnant women during ante-natal clinic sessions Results: High HIV/AIDS awareness level (97%) was recorded, 77.7% had correct knowledge of the cause of the disease but knowledge on the modes of vertical transmission during pregnancy (57.5%) and prevention during breast-feeding (62.3%) was not encouraging A lot of misconceptions about the cause of the HIV/AIDS, modes of contact, transmission, prevention and anti-retroviral therapy were recorded Conclusion: The survey revealed that a lot needed to be done to improve the knowledge, attitude, perception and behavioral changes among the populace especially in this particular group. This calls for urgent and proper response in order to stem the tide of HIV/AIDS. PMID:24826022

  14. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  15. Attitudes toward AIDS among a low-risk group of women.

    PubMed

    Glenn, P S; Nance-Spronson, L E; McCartney, M; Yesalis, C E

    1991-01-01

    A descriptive study presents the results of a 31-item questionnaire surveying the attitudes, fears, and perceived risks regarding acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) of patients at a freestanding maternity center located in a Washington, DC, suburb. The nonprobability, convenience sample of 200 females consists primarily of a homogenous group of white, middle- to upper-middle-class, well-educated women. Results of the research indicate a need for an educational program on AIDS designed for this population of women.

  16. THE LANGUAGE OF BLACK GAY MEN’S SEXUAL BEHAVIOR: IMPLICATIONS FOR AIDS RISK REDUCTION

    PubMed Central

    Mays, Vickie M.; Cochran, Susan D.; Bellinger, George; Smith, Robert G.; Henley, Nancy; Daniels, Marlon; Tibbits, Thomas; Victorianne, Gregory D.; Osei, Olu Kwasi; Birt, Darryl K.

    2011-01-01

    The development of appropriate AIDS risk reduction interventions targeted at African-American gay men could be aided by an awareness of their terminology for specific sexual behaviors and types of sexual encounters. This paper explores similarities and differences between the HIV-related sexual language of Black and White gay men. While much of the vernacular is shared, differences in some terms and greater or lesser emphasis on others are apparent. PMID:25382870

  17. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  18. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  19. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  20. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  1. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  2. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  3. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... LEAD-BASED PAINT POISONING PREVENTION IN CERTAIN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES Project-Based...

  4. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  5. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  6. Hegemonic Masculinity, HIV/AIDS Risk Perception, and Sexual Behavior Change Among Young People in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Ganle, John Kuumuori

    2016-05-01

    Among the youth in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa, a paradoxical mix of adequate knowledge of HIV/AIDS and high-risk behavior characterizes their daily lives. Based on original qualitative research in Ghana, I explore in this article the ways in which the social construction of masculinity influences youth's responses to behavior change HIV/AIDS prevention interventions. Findings show that although awareness of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the risks of infection is very high among the youth, a combination of hegemonic masculinity and perceptions of personal invulnerability acts to undermine the processes of young people's HIV/AIDS risk construction and appropriate behavioral change. I argue that if HIV/AIDS prevention is to be effective and sustained, school- and community-based initiatives should be developed to provide supportive social spaces in which the construction of masculinity, the identity of young men and women as gendered persons, and perceptions of their vulnerability to HIV/AIDS infection are challenged.

  7. Biologically based, quantitative risk assessment of neurotoxicants.

    PubMed

    Slikker, W; Crump, K S; Andersen, M E; Bellinger, D

    1996-01-01

    The need for biologically based, quantitative risk assessment procedures for noncancer endpoints such as neurotoxicity has been discussed in reports by the United States Congress (Office of Technology Assessment, OTA), National Research Council (NRC), and a federal coordinating council. According to OTA, current attention and resources allocated to health risk assessment research are inadequate and not commensurate with its impact on public health and the economy. Methods to include continuous rather than dichotomous data for neurotoxicity endpoints, biomarkers of exposure and effects, and pharmacokinetic and mechanistic data have been proposed for neurotoxicity risk assessment but require further review and validation before acceptance. The purpose of this symposium was to examine procedures to enhance the risk assessment process for neurotoxicants and to discuss techniques to make the process more quantitative. Accordingly, a review of the currently used safety factor risk assessment approach for neurotoxicants is provided along with specific examples of how this process may be enhanced with the use of the benchmark dose approach. The importance of including physiologically based pharmacokinetic data in the risk assessment process and specific examples of this approach is presented for neurotoxicants. The role of biomarkers of exposure and effect and mechanistic information in the risk assessment process are also addressed. Finally, quantitative approaches with the use of continuous neurotoxicity data are demonstrated and the outcomes compared to those generated by currently used risk assessment procedures. PMID:8838636

  8. Combination of sequential chemical extraction and modelling of dam-break wave propagation to aid assessment of risk related to the possible collapse of a roasted sulphide tailings dam.

    PubMed

    Pérez-López, Rafael; Sáez, Reinaldo; Alvarez-Valero, Antonio M; Miguel Nieto, José; Pace, Gaetano

    2009-10-15

    The Sotiel-Coronada abandoned mining district (Iberian Pyrite Belt) produced complex massive sulphide ores which were processed by flotation to obtain Cu, Zn and Pb concentrates. The crude pyrite refuses were roasted for sulphuric acid production in a plant located close to the flotation site, and waste stored in a tailing dam. The present study was focused on the measurements of flow properties, chemical characterization and mineralogical determination of the roasted pyrite refuses with the aim of assessing the potential environmental impact in case of dam collapse. Chemical studies include the determination of the total contaminant content and information about their bio-availability or mobility using sequential extraction techniques. In the hypothetical case of the tailing dam breaking up and waste spilling (ca. 4.54Mt), a high density mud flow would flood the Odiel river valley and reach both Estuary of Huelva (Biosphere Reserve by UNESCO, 1983) and Atlantic Ocean in matter of a couple of days, as it was predicted by numerical simulations of dam-break waves propagation through the river valley based on quasi-2D Saint-Venant equations. The total amount of mobile pollutants that would be released into the surrounding environment is approximately of 7.1.10(4)t of S, 1.6.10(4)t of Fe, 1.4.10(4)t of As, 1.2.10(4)t of Zn, 1.0.10(4)t of Pb, 7.4.10(3)t of Mn, 2.2.10(3)t of Cu, 1.5.10(2)t of Co, 36t of Cd and 17t of Ni. Around 90-100% of S, Zn, Co and Ni, 60-70% of Mn and Cd, 30-40% of Fe and Cu, and 5% of As and Pb of the mobile fraction would be easily in the most labile fraction (water-soluble pollutants), and therefore, the most dangerous and bio-available for the environment. This gives an idea of the extreme potential risk of roasted pyrite ashes to the environment, until now little-described in the scientific literature. PMID:19683794

  9. The effect of positive emotion and perceived risk on usage intention to online decision aids.

    PubMed

    Ma, Qing-guo; Wang, Kai

    2009-10-01

    Although perceived risk has a negative effect on usage intention toward new information technology, both perceived risk and usage intention are the results of cognitive processes, so they are inevitably influenced by emotion. Based on positive mood theory and the appraisal-tendency framework (ATF), a laboratory experiment using online decision aids with 126 participants was conducted. The results indicate that positive emotion (happy emotion in the current study) can increase usage intention and decrease perceived risk, while perceived risk decreases usage intention. Further investigation finds that perceived risk is a mediator between emotion and usage intention.

  10. Behavioral training and AIDS risk reduction: overcoming barriers to condom use.

    PubMed

    Weisse, C S; Turbiasz, A A; Whitney, D J

    1995-02-01

    To assess the short- and long-term effects of an AIDS-prevention workshop on undergraduates' attitudes about condom use and AIDS, 31 participants and 31 controls were studied immediately after training sessions as well as three months later. The workshop was aimed at reducing embarrassment to purchase condoms, encouraging positive attitudes about condoms, and promoting knowledge about AIDS. To help students overcome their embarrassment over condom purchases, a behavioral intervention was included allowing students to make condom purchases at nearby drug stores. Results revealed that participants reported less embarrassment over condom purchases after training sessions and that this effect became even stronger over time. Knowledge about AIDS and positive attitudes about condoms also increased immediately after the workshop, but these changes did not persist. Results suggest that AIDS prevention workshops may lead to transient changes unless a specific skill (i.e., condom purchasing) is targeted via behavioral training.

  11. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  12. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  13. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  14. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  15. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on compl...

  16. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences with nature. The…

  17. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process.

  18. Environmental risk assessment for start-up of a new consolidated maintenance facility

    SciTech Connect

    Heubach, J.G.; Wise, J.A.

    1992-10-01

    This paper summarizes a case study of a risk assessment for a consolidated maintenance facility (CMF). An interdisciplinary team was formed to identify and evaluate showstopper'' risks which could delay or prevent ontime, safe, and economical operation of a CMF and to recommend ways to mitigate the risks. The risk assessment was constrained by time, information, incomplete plans and facilities, and a concomitant major transition in manufacturing process, organization, and technology. Working within these constraints, the team integrated convergent findings into estimates of high, medium, and low risks based on the subjective likelihood of occurrence and predicted consequences of potential hazard events. The team also made risk-reduction recommendations for facility detail design and production start-up. The findings and recommendations reported in this study focus on risks related to environmental design and workstation ergonomics. Findings from the risk assessment effort should aid other constrained risk assessments and applied research on similar facilities.

  19. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  20. Environmental radiation: risk benchmarks or benchmarking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bates, Matthew E; Valverde, L James; Vogel, John T; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    In the wake of the compound March 2011 nuclear disaster at the Fukushima I nuclear power plant in Japan, international public dialogue has repeatedly turned to questions of the accuracy of current risk assessment processes to assess nuclear risks and the adequacy of existing regulatory risk thresholds to protect us from nuclear harm. We confront these issues with an emphasis on learning from the incident in Japan for future US policy discussions. Without delving into a broader philosophical discussion of the general social acceptance of the risk, the relative adequacy of existing US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk thresholds is assessed in comparison with the risk thresholds of federal agencies not currently under heightened public scrutiny. Existing NRC thresholds are found to be among the most conservative in the comparison, suggesting that the agency's current regulatory framework is consistent with larger societal ideals. In turning to risk assessment methodologies, the disaster in Japan does indicate room for growth. Emerging lessons seem to indicate an opportunity to enhance resilience through systemic levels of risk aggregation. Specifically, we believe bringing systemic reasoning to the risk management process requires a framework that (i) is able to represent risk-based knowledge and information about a panoply of threats; (ii) provides a systemic understanding (and representation) of the natural and built environments of interest and their dependencies; and (iii) allows for the rational and coherent valuation of a range of outcome variables of interest, both tangible and intangible. Rather than revisiting the thresholds themselves, we see the goal of future nuclear risk management in adopting and implementing risk assessment techniques that systemically evaluate large-scale socio-technical systems with a view toward enhancing resilience and minimizing the potential for surprise. PMID:21608107

  1. Knowledge, attitude, the perceived risks of infection and sources of information about HIV/AIDS among pregnant women in an urban population of Delhi.

    PubMed

    Singh, Saudan; Fukuda, Hideki; Ingle, G K; Tatara, Kozo

    2002-03-01

    Knowledge, attitude, perceived risks of infection and sources of information about HIV/AIDS were assessed among pregnant women. Large proportion of study subjects was illiterate (44.5%) and least was graduate or more (3.5%). Subjects mainly belonged to middle (46.1%) and lower socioe-conomic status (53.8%). Only 39.3% of subjects heard of AIDS. There was rising trend on heard of AIDS with various educational levels. Only 45% subjects responded correctly that AIDS was not transmitted by mosquito bite. Lower level of correct knowledge was also observed among all educational groups and it was lowest 21.1% among illiterate. Senior secondary or graduate or more educated responded 100% correct to question that one could get AIDS by having sex with prostitutes while illiterate responded 78.9% correctly. More educated had higher correct knowledge on modes of transmission compared to illiterate and less educated. Among various groups of educational status, the relationship of correct knowledge on modes of transmission was statistically significant. Of those heard of AIDS 79.3% perceived threat of AIDS to the health of local community. Mass media was source of information on HIV/AIDS among 86.3% out of which television was most popular source (74.6%). Large proportion of subjects (48.6%) had preference to get information on AIDS from doctors.

  2. The value of haematological screening for AIDS in an at risk population.

    PubMed Central

    Weber, J N; Walker, D; Engelkins, H; Bain, B; Harris, J R

    1985-01-01

    The haematological variables measured by automated full blood count in matched homosexual and heterosexual men attending a clinic for sexually transmitted diseases (STD) were compared with those of normal controls and patients infected with the human T lymphotropic virus type III (HTLV-III). Homosexual and heterosexual men were statistically identical for all variables, but both differed noticeably from patients with clinical diagnoses of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) or AIDS related disease. A full blood count as a screening test for AIDS is only interpretable in the context of clinical assessment. PMID:2995238

  3. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  4. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  5. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments - A Review.

    PubMed

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-03-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  6. Patterns of HIV/AIDS, STI, Substance Abuse and Hepatitis Risk among Selected Samples of Latino and African-American Youth in Washington, DC

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edberg, Mark C.; Collins, Elizabeth; Harris, Meredith; McLendon, Hedda; Santucci, Patricia

    2009-01-01

    In order to address evolving risk factors among youth in Washington, DC (District of Columbia), with respect to HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), substance abuse, and hepatitis, a targeted, community-needs assessment was conducted through a partnership between the Department of Prevention and Community Health at George Washington…

  7. THE USE OF STEM CELLS FOR TOXICOLOGY STUDIES AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In general terms, toxicology studies are used in support of risk assessments of adverse health outcomes as a result of exposures to chemical and physical agents. In particular, toxicological data are used to provide information that aids in the assessment of disease outcomes at e...

  8. Tools Available to Communities for Conducting Cumulative Exposure and Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper summarizes and assesses over 70 tools that could aid with gathering information and taking action on environmental issues related to community-based cumulative risk assessments (CBCRA). Information on tool use, development and research needs, was gathered from websites...

  9. Evaluating social outcomes of HIV/AIDS interventions: a critical assessment of contemporary indicator frameworks

    PubMed Central

    Mannell, Jenevieve; Cornish, Flora; Russell, Jill

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Contemporary HIV-related theory and policy emphasize the importance of addressing the social drivers of HIV risk and vulnerability for a long-term response. Consequently, increasing attention is being given to social and structural interventions, and to social outcomes of HIV interventions. Appropriate indicators for social outcomes are needed in order to institutionalize the commitment to addressing social outcomes. This paper critically assesses the current state of social indicators within international HIV/AIDS monitoring and evaluation frameworks. Methods We analyzed the indicator frameworks of six international organizations involved in efforts to improve and synchronize the monitoring and evaluation of the HIV/AIDS response. Our analysis classifies the 328 unique indicators according to what they measure and assesses the degree to which they offer comprehensive measurement across three dimensions: domains of the social context, levels of change and organizational capacity. Results and discussion The majority of indicators focus on individual-level (clinical and behavioural) interventions and outcomes, neglecting structural interventions, community interventions and social outcomes (e.g. stigma reduction; community capacity building; policy-maker sensitization). The main tool used to address social aspects of HIV/AIDS is the disaggregation of data by social group. This raises three main limitations. Indicator frameworks do not provide comprehensive coverage of the diverse social drivers of the epidemic, particularly neglecting criminalization, stigma, discrimination and gender norms. There is a dearth of indicators for evaluating the social impacts of HIV interventions. Indicators of organizational capacity focus on capacity to effectively deliver and manage clinical services, neglecting capacity to respond appropriately and sustainably to complex social contexts. Conclusions Current indicator frameworks cannot adequately assess the social

  10. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  11. The Concept of Risk Assessment and Being Unfit for Surgery.

    PubMed

    Kolh, P; De Hert, S; De Rango, P

    2016-06-01

    The concept of risk assessment and the identification of surgical unfitness for vascular intervention is a particularly controversial issue today as the minimally invasive surgical population has increased not only in volume but also in complexity (comorbidity profile) and age, requiring an improved pre-operative selection and definition of high risk. A practical step by step (three steps, two points for each) approach for surgical risk assessment is suggested in this review. As a general rule, the identification of a "high risk" patient for vascular surgery follows a step by step process where the risk is clearly defined, quantified (when too "high"?), and thereby stratified based on the procedure, the patient, and the hospital, with the aid of predictive risk scores. However, there is no standardized, updated, and objective definition for surgical unfitness today. The major gap in the current literature on the definition of high risk in vascular patients explains the lack of sound validated predictive systems and limited generalizability of risk scores in vascular surgery. In addition, the concept of fitness is an evolving tool and many traditional high risk criteria and definitions are no longer valid. Given the preventive purpose of most vascular procedures performed in elderly asymptomatic patients, the decision to pursue or withhold surgery requires realistic estimates not only regarding individual peri-operative mortality, but also life expectancy, healthcare priorities, and the patient's primary goals, such as prolongation of life versus maintenance of independence or symptom relief. The overall "frailty" and geriatric risk burden, such as cognitive, functional, social, and nutritional status, are variables that should be also included in the analyses for stratification of surgical risk in elderly vascular patients. PMID:27053098

  12. An experiential program to reduce AIDS risk among female sex partners of injection-drug users.

    PubMed

    Rhodes, F; Wolitski, R J; Thornton-Johnson, S

    1992-11-01

    This article describes the development and implementation of an acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) intervention program for female sex partners of male injection-drug users. Four psychoeducational workshops were designed to motivate personal risk reduction, provide participants with necessary cognitive and behavioral skills, and enhance participants' perceived ability to enact positive changes in their lives. The development of the workshop modules was guided by traditional theories of health behavior change and social learning. Also included in the intervention are referral and advocacy services, personal risk reduction counseling, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibody testing. Preliminary results indicate that the program has made a significant impact on the AIDS risk of participants--91 percent of women who completed the program reported that they had made positive changes in their lives to reduce their risk of HIV infection.

  13. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  14. Individualized Risk of Surgical Complications: An Application of the Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment Score

    PubMed Central

    Mlodinow, Alexei S.; Khavanin, Nima; Hume, Keith M.; Simmons, Christopher J.; Weiss, Michael J.; Murphy, Robert X.; Gutowski, Karol A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Risk discussion is a central tenet of the dialogue between surgeon and patient. Risk calculators have recently offered a new way to integrate evidence-based practice into the discussion of individualized patient risk and expectation management. Focusing on the comprehensive Tracking Operations and Outcomes for Plastic Surgeons (TOPS) database, we endeavored to add plastic surgical outcomes to the previously developed Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) score. Methods: The TOPS database from 2008 to 2011 was queried for patients undergoing breast reconstruction. Regression models were constructed for the following complications: seroma, dehiscence, surgical site infection (SSI), explantation, flap failure, reoperation, and overall complications. Results: Of 11,992 cases, 4439 met inclusion criteria. Overall complication rate was 15.9%, with rates of 3.4% for seroma, 4.0% for SSI, 6.1% for dehiscence, 3.7% for explantation, 7.0% for flap loss, and 6.4% for reoperation. Individualized risk models were developed with acceptable goodness of fit, accuracy, and internal validity. Distribution of overall complication risk was broad and asymmetric, meaning that the average risk was often a poor estimate of the risk for any given patient. These models were added to the previously developed open-access version of the risk calculator, available at http://www.BRAscore.org. Conclusions: Population-based measures of risk may not accurately reflect risk for many individual patients. In this era of increasing emphasis on evidence-based medicine, we have developed a breast reconstruction risk assessment calculator from the robust TOPS database. The BRA Score tool can aid in individualizing—and quantifying—risk to better inform surgical decision making and better manage patient expectations. PMID:26090295

  15. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  16. Enhancing the Ecological Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H

    2008-01-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest (1) thorough peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and (2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it

  17. Assessment of optical localizer accuracy for computer aided surgery systems.

    PubMed

    Elfring, Robert; de la Fuente, Matías; Radermacher, Klaus

    2010-01-01

    The technology for localization of surgical tools with respect to the patient's reference coordinate system in three to six degrees of freedom is one of the key components in computer aided surgery. Several tracking methods are available, of which optical tracking is the most widespread in clinical use. Optical tracking technology has proven to be a reliable method for intra-operative position and orientation acquisition in many clinical applications; however, the accuracy of such localizers is still a topic of discussion. In this paper, the accuracy of three optical localizer systems, the NDI Polaris P4, the NDI Polaris Spectra (in active and passive mode) and the Stryker Navigation System II camera, is assessed and compared critically. Static tests revealed that only the Polaris P4 shows significant warm-up behavior, with a significant shift of accuracy being observed within 42 minutes of being switched on. Furthermore, the intrinsic localizer accuracy was determined for single markers as well as for tools using a volumetric measurement protocol on a coordinate measurement machine. To determine the relative distance error within the measurement volume, the Length Measurement Error (LME) was determined at 35 test lengths. As accuracy depends strongly on the marker configuration employed, the error to be expected in typical clinical setups was estimated in a simulation for different tool configurations. The two active localizer systems, the Stryker Navigation System II camera and the Polaris Spectra (active mode), showed the best results, with trueness values (mean +/- standard deviation) of 0.058 +/- 0.033 mm and 0.089 +/- 0.061 mm, respectively. The Polaris Spectra (passive mode) showed a trueness of 0.170 +/- 0.090 mm, and the Polaris P4 showed the lowest trueness at 0.272 +/- 0.394 mm with a higher number of outliers than for the other cameras. The simulation of the different tool configurations in a typical clinical setup revealed that the tracking error can

  18. Prospects for Bilateral Aid to Basic Education Put Students at Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abetti, Pauline; Beardmore, Sarah; Tapp, Charles, Winthrop, Rebecca

    2011-01-01

    The future of bilateral aid to basic education is at risk, placing the educational opportunities of many of the world's poorest girls and boys on the line. Some donor governments are reducing overall bilateral assistance, others are phasing out long-standing partnerships with particular developing countries and several are abandoning education as…

  19. Sociocultural Determinants of HIV/AIDS Risk and Service Use among Immigrant Latinos in North Carolina

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowden, W. Patrick; Rhodes, Scott D.; Wilkin, Aimee M.; Jolly, Christine P.

    2006-01-01

    Latinos in the United States have been disproportionately affected by the intersecting epidemics of HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. Using a community-based participatory research approach to problem identification, the objective of this study is to explore sociocultural determinants of HIV/AIDS risk and service use among immigrant Latino…

  20. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Wendland, W.G. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance.

  1. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  2. Evaluation and Assessment of a Biomechanics Computer-Aided Instruction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington, N.; Parnianpour, M.; Fraser, J. M.

    1999-01-01

    Describes the Biomechanics Tutorial, a computer-aided instructional tool that was developed at Ohio State University to expedite the transition from lecture to application for undergraduate students. Reports evaluation results that used statistical analyses and student questionnaires to show improved performance on posttests as well as positive…

  3. Computer-aided evaluation of radiologist's reproducibility and subjectivity in mammographic density assessment.

    PubMed

    Tomas, Ilijan; Kotoromanović, Zdenka; Belaj, Nenad; Margaretić, Damir; Ivezić, Zdravko; Katić, Miroslav; Zibar, Lada; Faj, Dario; Stimac, Damir; Matić, Mate

    2013-12-01

    Mammographic density is an independent risk of breast cancer. This study has evaluated the radiologists' reproducibility and subjectivity in breast density estimation and in order to decrease the radiologists' subjective errors the computer software was developed. The very good reproducibility existed in the strong correlation with the first and the second mammogram assessment after three month period for each radiologist (correlation coefficient 0.73-1, p < 0.001). The strong correlation was present in the case of all 5 radiologists when compared among themselves and compared with software aided MDEST-Mammographic Density Estimation (correlation coefficient 0.651-0.777, p < 0.001). Detected differences in glandular tissue percentage determination occurred in the case of two experienced radiologists, out of 5 (one radiologist with more than 5 year experience and one with more than 10 year experience, p < 0.01), but in the case of breast type determination (American College of Radiology-ACR I-IV), the detected difference occurred in one radiologist with the least experience (less than 5 years, p < 0.001). It can be concluded that the estimation of glandular tissue percentage in breast density is rather subjective method, especially if it is expressed with absolute percentage, but the determination of type of breast (ARCI-IV) depends on the radiologist's experience. This study showed that software aided determination of glandular tissue percentage and breast type can be of a great benefit in the case of less experienced radiologists.

  4. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  5. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  6. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  7. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  8. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  9. Perioperative risk assessment. Common misconceptions.

    PubMed

    Mishriki, Y Y

    1989-04-01

    Proper assessment of the preoperative patient is a blend of the art and science of medicine. The body of literature dealing with the various facets of this assessment has grown in the past few years. Unfortunately, this core of knowledge is neither well taught to residents-in-training nor well appreciated by many practicing physicians. Thus, evaluation of the surgical patient is often guided by personal anecdotes and unjustified assumptions. Seven common misconceptions are addressed in this article. PMID:2648378

  10. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  11. Assessing risk: Putting toxicity in perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, C.

    1993-08-01

    Opinions on risk assessment vary from believing the process to be a purely pursuit at one extreme to professing that it is merely a {open_quotes}plug and chug{close_quotes} or {open_quotes}turn the crank{close_quotes} exercise at the other. Those familiar with the field recognize, however, that risk assessment is basically a process of exercising good scientific analysis and judgement. More specifically, risk assessment is the devise by which one arrives at decisions concerning accidental chemical exposures, chemical tolerances in food, allowable workplace chemical exposures and chemicals in the environment from uncontrolled industrial and waste sites. This paper discussess risk assessment and relations to the Superfund.

  12. Uncertainty in Mixtures and Cumulative Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans and environmental species are rarely exposed to single chemicals. These chemicals typically affect multiple tissues through multiple modes of action, which may depend on the dose. Mixtures risk assessment may employ dose response information from the mixture of interest,...

  13. Salivary Biomarkers for Caries Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Lihong; Shi, Wenyuan

    2013-01-01

    Saliva contains various microbes and host biological components that could be used for caries risk assessment. This review focuses on the research topics that connect dental caries with saliva, including both the microbial and host components within saliva. PMID:23505756

  14. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  15. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  16. Biosecurity Risk Assessment Methodology (BioRAM) v. 2.0

    2009-06-08

    Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction Dept (SNL/IBTR) has an ongoing mission to enhance biosecurity assessment methodologies, tools, and guise. These will aid labs seeking to implement biosecurity as advocated in the recently released WHO's Biorisk Management: Lab Biosecurity Guidance. BioRAM 2.0 is the software tool developed initially using the SNL LDRD process and designed to complement the "Laboratory Biosecurity Risk Handbook" written by Ren Salerno and Jennifer Gaudioso defining biosecurity risk assessment methodologies.

  17. Gist Representations and Communication of Risks about HIV-AIDS: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach.

    PubMed

    Wilhelms, Evan A; Reyna, Valerie F; Brust-Renck, Priscila; Weldon, Rebecca B; Corbin, Jonathan C

    2015-01-01

    As predicted by fuzzy-trace theory, people with a range of training—from untrained adolescents to expert physicians—are susceptible to biases and errors in judgment and perception of HIV-AIDS risk. To explain why this occurs, we introduce fuzzy-trace theory as a theoretical perspective that describes these errors to be a function of knowledge deficits, gist-based representation of risk categories, retrieval failure for risk knowledge, and processing interference (e.g., base-rate neglect) in combining risk estimates. These principles explain how people perceive HIV-AIDS risk and why they take risks with potentially lethal outcomes, often despite rote (verbatim) knowledge.For example, people inappropriately generalize the wrong gist about condoms' effectiveness against fluid-borne disease to diseases that are transferred skin-to-skin, such as HPV. We also describe how variation in processing in adolescence (e.g., more verbatim processing compared to adults) can be a route to risk-taking that explains key aspects of why many people are infected with HIV in youth, as well as how interventions that emphasize bottom-line gists communicate risks effectively.

  18. Gist Representations and Communication of Risks about HIV-AIDS: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach.

    PubMed

    Wilhelms, Evan A; Reyna, Valerie F; Brust-Renck, Priscila; Weldon, Rebecca B; Corbin, Jonathan C

    2015-01-01

    As predicted by fuzzy-trace theory, people with a range of training—from untrained adolescents to expert physicians—are susceptible to biases and errors in judgment and perception of HIV-AIDS risk. To explain why this occurs, we introduce fuzzy-trace theory as a theoretical perspective that describes these errors to be a function of knowledge deficits, gist-based representation of risk categories, retrieval failure for risk knowledge, and processing interference (e.g., base-rate neglect) in combining risk estimates. These principles explain how people perceive HIV-AIDS risk and why they take risks with potentially lethal outcomes, often despite rote (verbatim) knowledge.For example, people inappropriately generalize the wrong gist about condoms' effectiveness against fluid-borne disease to diseases that are transferred skin-to-skin, such as HPV. We also describe how variation in processing in adolescence (e.g., more verbatim processing compared to adults) can be a route to risk-taking that explains key aspects of why many people are infected with HIV in youth, as well as how interventions that emphasize bottom-line gists communicate risks effectively. PMID:26149161

  19. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  20. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  1. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  2. HIV/AIDS knowledge and occupational risk in primary care health workers from Chile

    PubMed Central

    Valdés, Baltica Cabieses; Lagunas, Lilian Ferrer; Villarroel, Luis Antonio; Acosta, Rosina Cianelli; Miner, Sarah; Silva, Margarita Bernales

    2014-01-01

    Objective To explore the relationship between knowledge level and occupational risk exposure to HIV/AIDS in primary care health workers. Methodology Analytical cross-sectional study. 720 health workers from Santiago answered a survey about HIV/AIDS that included: knowledge level (appropriate, inappropriate), occupational risk (with or without risk), and control variables (age, gender, health center, education and marital status). Descriptive and association analysis were performed. Odds Ratio (OR) was estimated through simple and multiple regressions logistics. Results 58.7% of the participants reported HIV occupational risk. 63.8% of the participants from the exposed group reported an appropriate level of knowledge, versus 36.1% of the non-exposed group (Adjusted OR of 3.1, IC95%OR: 2.0-4.8, p<0.0001). Technicians and cleaning staff reported a lower proportion of appropriate level of knowledge compared to the employees with college education (p<0.0001). Conclusion The level of HIV/AID occupational risk is directly associated with the level of knowledge of the disease. PMID:25284913

  3. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  4. Assessing Knowledge of, and Attitudes to, HIV/AIDS among University Students in the United Arab Emirates

    PubMed Central

    Haroun, Dalia; El Saleh, Ola; Wood, Lesley; Mechli, Rola; Al Marzouqi, Nada; Anouti, Samir

    2016-01-01

    Background The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is among the top two regions in the world with the fastest growing HIV epidemic. In this context, risks and vulnerability are high as the epidemic is on the rise with evidence indicating significantly increasing HIV prevalence, new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths. Objective The aim of the survey was to assess HIV/AIDS knowledge and attitudes related to HIV/AIDS among a wide group of university students in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Methods In a cross-sectional survey, a total sample of 2,294 students (406 male; 1,888 female) from four universities in three different Emirates in the UAE were approached to take part in the study. Students self-completed a questionnaire that was designed to measure their knowledge and attitudes to HIV/AIDS. Results The overall average knowledge score of HIV.AIDS was 61%. Non-Emirati and postgraduates demonstrated higher levels of knowledge compared to Emirati and undergraduate students respectively. No significant differences between males and females; and marital status were found. Eighty-five percent of students expressed negative attitudes towards people living with HIV, with Emirati and single students significantly holding more negative attitudes compared to non-Emiratis and those that are married respectively. Conclusions The findings provide strong evidence that there is a need to advocate for appropriate National HIV/AIDS awareness raising campaigns in universities to reduce the gaps in knowledge and decrease stigmatizing attitudes towards people living with HIV/AIDS. PMID:26913902

  5. APPLICATION OF FETAX IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A workshop sponsored by NIEHS in 2000 evaluated the use of FETAX as a screening method for identifying the developmental toxicity potenial of chemical and environmental samples. Workshop recommendations pertinent to environmental risk assessment suggested that additional comparat...

  6. At the Intersection of HIV/AIDS and Cancer: A Qualitative Needs Assessment of Community-Based HIV/AIDS Service Organizations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burkhalter, Jack E.; Cahill, Sean; Shuk, Elyse; Guidry, John; Corner, Geoffrey; Berk, Alexandra; Candelario, Norman; Kornegay, Mark; Lubetkin, Erica I.

    2013-01-01

    Due to advances in treatment, persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) are living longer, but with aging, immune deficits, and lifestyle factors, they are at increased risk for cancer. This challenges community-based AIDS service organizations (ASOs) to address the growing cancer needs of…

  7. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process.

  8. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  9. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  10. [Assessment criteria in the choice of aids for the lifting of patients].

    PubMed

    Panciera, D; Menoni, O; Ricci, M G; Occhipinti, E

    1999-01-01

    A fundamental part of the prevention strategies aimed at reducing risk due to manual handling of patients is the use of appropriate aids. This paper defines the basic types of aids for hospital wards: patient lifting devices, aids for hygiene and minor aids; and also proposes a procedure for choice of the type of aid: the procedure uses a specific protocol and also analyzes work organization and the environmental features of the ward. The proposed criteria for choice concern in the first place the fundamental requirements of the equipment: safety for operator and patient, simplicity of use and comfort for the patient. Secondly the basic determinants for choice of the type of aid are the type of disabled patient usually present in the ward and the analysis of the movements made in handling patients. On this basis, for each type of aid, the specific features are defined which direct the choice of supply for the various wards that will be adequate and effective both in reducing risk due to manual handling of patients and in improving the comfort of the patients.

  11. Microfinance and HIV/AIDS Prevention: Assessing its Promise and Limitations

    PubMed Central

    Dworkin, Shari L.; Blankenship, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Researchers increasingly argue that poverty and gender inequality exacerbate the spread of HIV/AIDS and that economic empowerment can therefore assist in the prevention and mitigation of the disease, particularly for women. This paper critically evaluates such claims. First, we examine the promises and limits of integrated HIV/AIDS prevention and microfinance programs by examining the available evidence base. We then propose future research agendas and next steps that may help to clear current ambiguities about the potential for economic programs to contribute to HIV/AIDS risk reduction efforts. PMID:19294500

  12. Use of System Safety Risk Assessments for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the System Safety approach used to assess risk for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Previous to the first RSRM flight in the fall of 1988, all systems were analyzed extensively to assure that hazards were identified, assessed and that the baseline risk was understood and appropriately communicated. Since the original RSRM baseline was established, Thiokol and NASA have implemented a number of initiatives that have further improved the RSRM. The robust design, completion of rigorous testing and flight success of the RSRM has resulted in a wise reluctance to make changes. One of the primary assessments required to accompany the documentation of each proposed change and aid in the decision making process is a risk assessment. Documentation supporting proposed changes, including the risk assessments from System Safety, are reviewed and assessed by Thiokol and NASA technical management. After thorough consideration, approved changes are implemented adding improvements to and reducing risk of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

  13. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  14. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  15. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  16. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  17. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  18. Validating a multifactorial falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    James, Michele B; Kimmons, Nancy J; Schasberger, Britta; Lefkowitz, Abigail

    2014-01-01

    Reducing risk of falls has been identified as a national safety goal by The Joint Commission (TJC). The purpose was to determine if the total score on the multifactorial Falls Risk Assessment accurately identifies the risk of falls in a homebound client. In addition, the study examined if any individual item had a higher predictive power with the incidence of falls. One hundred clients (> 65 years old) who sustained an avoidable fall during a home care episode of care, plus 25 home care clients in the same age range and time period, who did not fall. A retrospective chart review, including Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) performed at start of care, demographic information, specific physical therapy (PT) evaluation, and visit notes if necessary to determine if the fall met the inclusion criteria. Scores for each individual area of the assessment were collected for statistical analysis. Data were analyzed by a biostatistician using simple linear regression, t-tests, and regression of variable combinations. The total score on the multifactorial risk assessment tool was shown to have a strong relationship with incidence of falls. The average scores of individuals who fell after assessment were significantly higher than those of individuals who did not fall. No single factors were found to be highly predictive. A single approach to decreasing falls is likely to be less effective than a multipronged approach. Caregivers and providers are advised to consider the entirety of the falls risk and direct comprehensive interventions to address the multiple factors that lead to falls.

  19. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  20. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  1. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  2. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  3. Modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos

    2009-02-01

    In this study, I describe a systematic approach for modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment that is based on the incorporation of kinetic spoilage modeling in exposure assessment by combining data and models for the specific spoilage organisms (SSO: fraction of the total microflora responsible for spoilage) with those for pathogens. The structure of the approach is presented through an exposure assessment application for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. The proposed approach allows for identifying spoiled products at the time of consumption by comparing the estimated level of SSO (pseudomonads) with the spoilage level (level of SSO at which spoilage is observed). The results of the application indicate that ignoring spoilage in risk assessment could lead to significant overestimations of risk.

  4. AIDS-risk among street children and youth: implications for intervention.

    PubMed

    Richter, L M; Swart-kruger, J

    1995-03-01

    141 males aged 11-18 years (mean age, 15 years), 79 of whom were enrolled in shelter programs and the remainder living independently on the streets, participated in 14 focus group discussions held in Pietermaritzburg, Johannesburg, Soweto, Pretoria, East London, Cape Town, Durban, and Bloemfontein, South Africa. The discussions focused upon knowledge about the transmission of AIDS and prevention, attitudes toward AIDS and people with AIDS, and sexual and other behaviors related to AIDS risk. Each group comprised 8-10 boys, each person remaining anonymous except for providing his age and a first name to use in the group discussions. All but two participants had heard of AIDS and knew that it was incurable and sexually transmitted. 93% endorsed the idea that condoms can prevent infection, but all were overwhelmingly negative about condom use and people with AIDS. None had heard of HIV and none were able to specify sperm and blood as the media for transmission. Vulnerability to AIDS was attributed to casual sex and sex with particular groups of people, but not to the act of unprotected penetrative sex. 68% were certain that they could not get AIDS from someone who looks healthy. The boys harbored other misinformation on how one may contract AIDS. All agreed that selling sex, to both men and women, is the best way to get money on the streets. They reported earning R10-200 per day depending upon the city, the customer's gender, and other circumstances. Their clients usually insisted upon unprotected penetrative oral, anal, or vaginal sex. They also engaged in survival sex to enlist or mollify powerful others, in exchange for protection, accommodation, or other goods and services; had sex with their girlfriends, many of whom also work as prostitutes; and commonly used alcohol and other drugs. Once intoxicated, the boys are more likely to have risky sex; their vulnerability to being raped also increases. These youths are neither more nor less informed or misinformed about

  5. Norms and practices within marriage which shape gender roles, HIV/AIDS risk and risk reduction strategies in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique.

    PubMed

    Bandali, S

    2011-09-01

    Despite increasing HIV/AIDS rates among married individuals, minimal research has been conducted on how men and women respond to risk in a marriage. This paper examines strategies used by married individuals to combat HIV/AIDS risk against prevailing gender norms. Qualitative data were gathered in four villages of Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique. Group discussions were held with 160 men and women to explore gender norms, HIV/AIDS knowledge and risk determinants. From the group discussions, 29 individuals were selected for further in-depth interviews to explore relationships between gender norms and risk reduction efforts within marriages. Findings illustrate how infidelity and social limitations placed on condom use not only increase HIV/AIDS risk but also entrench gender disparities. Although power differences between genders can make it difficult to negotiate safe sex, men and women are taking measures to reduce perceived HIV/AIDS risk in their marriage. Married men are reconstructing norms and taking responsibility to protect their family from HIV/AIDS by remaining faithful. For women, responses to HIV/AIDS risk in a marriage are more closely related to their ability to generate an income. Financially dependent women tend to leave a risky marriage altogether in contrast to financially autonomous women who will negotiate condom use with their husband. Factors such as experience with a risky partner, the desire to maintain a good social standing, fear of HIV/AIDS acquisition and parental guidance and support influence men and women to reduce perceived HIV/AIDS risk, despite constraining gender norms and power imbalances in a marriage. Nuanced understandings of the ways in which men and women are already taking measures to decrease noted HIV/AIDS risk, despite gender norms that make this a challenge, should be incorporated into localised responses.

  6. Categorization framework to aid exposure assessment of nanomaterials in consumer products.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Michelson, Evan S; Kamper, Anja; Borling, Pernille; Stuer-Lauridsen, Frank; Baun, Anders

    2008-07-01

    Exposure assessment is crucial for risk assessment for nanomaterials. We propose a framework to aid exposure assessment in consumer products. We determined the location of the nanomaterials and the chemical identify of the 580 products listed in the inventory maintained by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, of which 37% used nanoparticles suspended in liquids, whereas <1% contained "free airborne nanoparticles". C(60) is currently only used as suspended nanoparticles in liquids and nanosilver is used more as surface bound nanoparticles than as particles suspended in liquids. Based on the location of the nanostructure we were able to further group the products into categories of: (1) expected, (2) possible, and (3) no expected exposure. Most products fall into the category of expected exposure, but we were not able to complete a quantitative exposure assessment mainly due to the lack of information on the concentration of the nanomaterial in the products--a problem that regulators and industry will have to address if we are to have realistic exposure assessment in the future. To illustrate the workability of our procedure, we applied it to four product scenarios using the best estimates available and/or worst-case assumptions. Using the best estimates available and/or worst-case assumptions we estimated the consumer exposure to be 26, 15, and 44 microg kg(-1) bw year(-1) for a facial lotion, a fluid product, and a spray product containing nanoparticles, respectively. The application of sun lotion containing 2% nanoparticles result in an exposure of 56.7 mg kg(-1) bw d(-1) for a 2-year-old child, if the amounts applied correspond to the European Commission recommendations on use of sunscreen.

  7. Promotion of Latina Health: Intersectionality of IPV and Risk for HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Rountree, Michele A; Granillo, Teresa; Bagwell-Gray, Meredith

    2016-04-01

    Latina women in the United States are vulnerable to two intersecting public health concerns: intimate partner violence (IPV) and subsequent risk for HIV/AIDS infection. Examination of the cultural and contextual life factors of this understudied population is crucial to developing culturally relevant HIV interventions. Focus groups with Latinas (15 monolingual; 10 bilingual) who have experienced IPV were conducted. Monolingual and bilingual Latinas endorsed that they were concerned about HIV infection, naming partner infidelity and experiences of forced and coerced sex as primary reasons for their concern. However, monolingual participants had lower levels of HIV knowledge, spending much time discussing myths of HIV infection, whereas bilingual participants spent more time discussing specific prevention techniques, including challenges related to the violence in their relationships. These findings suggest that HIV/AIDS prevention programs for Latinas need to pay close attention to the different historical, contextual, and cultural experiences of this at-risk group of women.

  8. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plattner, Th.; Plapp, T.; Hebel, B.

    2006-06-01

    An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not why it differs. The

  9. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  10. Immuno-Virological Discordance and the Risk of Non-AIDS and AIDS Events in a Large Observational Cohort of HIV-Patients in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Zoufaly, Alexander; Cozzi-Lepri, Alessandro; Reekie, Joanne; Kirk, Ole; Lundgren, Jens; Reiss, Peter; Jevtovic, Djordje; Machala, Ladislav; Zangerle, Robert; Mocroft, Amanda; Van Lunzen, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Background The impact of immunosuppression despite virological suppression (immuno-virological discordance, ID) on the risk of developing fatal and non-fatal AIDS/non-AIDS events is unclear and remains to be elucidated. Methods Patients in EuroSIDA starting at least 1 new antiretroviral drug with CD4<350 cells/µl and viral load (VL)>500 copies/mL were followed-up from the first day of VL< = 50 copies/ml until a new fatal/non-fatal non-AIDS/AIDS event. Considered non-AIDS events included non-AIDS malignancies, pancreatitis, severe liver disease with hepatic encephalopathy (>grade 3), cardio- and cerebrovascular events, and end-stage renal disease. Patients were classified over time according to whether current CD4 count was above (non-ID) or below (ID) baseline level. Relative rates (RR) of events were calculated for ID vs. non-ID using adjusted Poisson regression models. Results 2,913 patients contributed 11,491 person-years for the analysis of non-AIDS. 241 pre-specified non-AIDS events (including 84 deaths) and 89 AIDS events (including 10 deaths) occurred. The RR of developing pre-specified non-AIDS events for ID vs. non-ID was 1.96 (95% CI 1.37–2.81, p<0.001) in unadjusted analysis and 1.43 (0.94–2.17, p = 0.095) after controlling for current CD4 count. ID was not associated with the risk of AIDS events (aRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.41–1.38, p = 0.361). Conclusion Compared to CD4 responders, patients with immuno-virological discordance may be at increased risk of developing non-AIDS events. Further studies are warranted to establish whether in patients with ID, strategies to directly modify CD4 count response may be needed besides the use of ART. PMID:24498036

  11. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  12. Risk assessment and risk management of noncriteria pollutants.

    PubMed

    Lee, S D

    1990-10-01

    Noncriteria air pollutants are synonymous with hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), air toxics or toxic air pollutants (TAPs). The term noncriteria pollutants refers to all air pollutants except for the criteria pollutants (SOx, PM, NOx, CO, O3, and Pb). Air toxics are pervasive in our environment worldwide in varying degrees. Uses of these chemicals are varied and numerous; their emissions are ubiquitous, and they include organic compounds such as chlorinated hydrocarbons, dioxins, aldehydes, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, and heavy metals such as chromium, nickel, cadmium, and mercury. There are more than 70,000 chemicals that are in use commercially in the United States, and we know relatively little about their ambient concentrations, persistence, transport and transformation as well as their effects on health and the environment, many of which take decades to emerge. The United States Environmental Protection Agency, under the authority of Section 112 of the Clean Air Act, is mandated to regulate any air pollutant which, in the Administrator's judgment, "causes, or contributes to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to result in an increase in serious irreversible or incapacitating reversible illness." For such regulatory decision-making, EPA's Office of Health and Environmental Assessment (OHEA) provides scientific assessment of health effects for potentially hazardous air pollutants. In accordance with risk assessment guidelines developed by OHEA over the years, Health Assessment Documents (HADs) containing risk assessment information were prepared and were subjected to critical review and careful revision to produce Final Draft HADs which serve as scientific databases for regulatory decision-making by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) in its risk management process. EPA developed databases such as the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) and the National Air Toxics Information Clearinghouse (NATICH) and a technical

  13. RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSES USING EPA'S ON-LINE SITE-SPECIFIC TRANSPORT MODELS AND FIELD DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has developed a suite of on-line calculators and transport models to aid in risk assessment for subsurface contamination. The calculators (www.epa.gov/athens/onsite) provide several levels of tools and data. These include tools for generating commonly-used model input param...

  14. Assessing the Validity of a Single-Item HIV Risk Stage-of-Change Measure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Napper, Lucy E.; Branson, Catherine M.; Fisher, Dennis G.; Reynolds, Grace L.; Wood, Michelle M.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the validity of a single-item measure of HIV risk stage of change that HIV prevention contractors were required to collect by the California State Office of AIDS. The single-item measure was compared to the more conventional University of Rhode Island Change Assessment (URICA). Participants were members of Los Angeles…

  15. Experimental and analytical studies for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    Various experimental and analytical studies performed for the NASA carbon fiber risk assessment program are described with emphasis on carbon fiber characteristics, sensitivity of electrical equipment and components to shorting or arcing by carbon fibers, attenuation effect of carbon fibers on aircraft landing aids, impact of carbon fibers on industrial facilities. A simple method of estimating damage from airborne carbon fibers is presented.

  16. Computer-aided diagnosis in lung nodule assessment.

    PubMed

    Goldin, Jonathan G; Brown, Matthew S; Petkovska, Iva

    2008-05-01

    Computed tomography (CT) imaging is playing an increasingly important role in cancer detection, diagnosis, and lesion characterization, and it is the most sensitive test for lung nodule detection. Interpretation of lung nodules involves characterization and integration of clinical and other imaging information. Advances in lung nodule management using CT require optimization of CT data acquisition, postprocessing tools, and computer-aided diagnosis (CAD). The goal of CAD systems being developed is to both assist radiologists in the more sensitive detection of nodules and noninvasively differentiate benign from malignant lesions; the latter is important given that malignant lesions account for between 1% and 11% of pulmonary nodules. The aim of this review is to summarize the current state of the art regarding CAD techniques for the detection and characterization of solitary pulmonary nodules and their potential applications in the clinical workup of these lesions.

  17. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  18. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  19. Fit to be interviewed by the police--an aid to assessment.

    PubMed

    Norfolk, G

    2001-01-01

    The assessment of a suspect's fitness to be interviewed by the police is becoming an increasingly important part of a police surgeon's workload. This paper discusses the assessment in terms of the various factors that may render a person prone to providing an involuntary or false confession and proposes an aide memoire to assist the examining doctor. PMID:11219124

  20. Concepts of modern risk assessment and management.

    PubMed

    Corbin, S B

    1994-01-01

    An emerging and increasingly complex array of environmental health concerns face dental practitioners in both the private and public sectors. These concerns are challenging and possibly threatening the traditionally inviolable dentist-patient relationship. Regulatory bodies, health risk experts, attorneys, and enthusiastic media are inserting themselves into the process. Essential assets for "successful" dental practitioners include enhanced expertise in basic science and technology, including the area of risk assessment, and development of broadened perspectives and skills for communicating with patients and the public.

  1. Computer-Aided Self Assessment: The Intelligent Answer?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waite, Alice; Goodman, Linda M.

    1989-01-01

    Describes the development of a computer-assisted self assessment system in the United Kingdom that was designed to explore the use of artificial intelligence techniques in the area of self assessment for training applications. The expert systems used are explained, development of a pilot prototype is outlined, and field tests are described. (eight…

  2. Sexual and reproductive health and HIV/AIDS risk perception in the Malawi tourism industry.

    PubMed

    Bisika, Thomas

    2009-06-01

    Malawi has for a long time relied on agriculture for the generation of foreign exchange. Due to varied reasons like climate change, the Malawi government has, therefore, identified tourism as one way of boosting foreign exchange earnings and is already in the process of developing the sector especially in the area of ecotourism. However, tourism is associated with increasing prostitution, drug abuse and a whole range of other sexual and reproductive health (SRH) problems such as teenage pregnancies, HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). This paper examines the knowledge, attitudes, practices and behaviour as well as risk perceptions associated with HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies among staff in the tourism industry and communities around tourist facilities in Malawi. The study was descriptive in nature and used both qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative methods involved in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The quantitative technique employed a survey of 205 purposively selected subjects from the tourism sector. The study concludes that people in the tourism sector are at high risk of HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies and should be considered as a vulnerable group. The study further observes that this group of people has not adopted behaviours that can protect them from HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies although there is high demand for voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) which offers a very good entry point for HIV prevention and treatment in the tourism sector. The study recommends that a comprehensive tourism policy covering tourists, employees and communities around tourist facilities is required. Such a policy should address the rights of HIV infected employees and the provision of prevention and treatment services for HIV/AIDS and STIs as well as a broad range of SRH and family planning services especially

  3. Sexual and reproductive health and HIV/AIDS risk perception in the Malawi tourism industry.

    PubMed

    Bisika, Thomas

    2009-06-01

    Malawi has for a long time relied on agriculture for the generation of foreign exchange. Due to varied reasons like climate change, the Malawi government has, therefore, identified tourism as one way of boosting foreign exchange earnings and is already in the process of developing the sector especially in the area of ecotourism. However, tourism is associated with increasing prostitution, drug abuse and a whole range of other sexual and reproductive health (SRH) problems such as teenage pregnancies, HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). This paper examines the knowledge, attitudes, practices and behaviour as well as risk perceptions associated with HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies among staff in the tourism industry and communities around tourist facilities in Malawi. The study was descriptive in nature and used both qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative methods involved in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The quantitative technique employed a survey of 205 purposively selected subjects from the tourism sector. The study concludes that people in the tourism sector are at high risk of HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies and should be considered as a vulnerable group. The study further observes that this group of people has not adopted behaviours that can protect them from HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies although there is high demand for voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) which offers a very good entry point for HIV prevention and treatment in the tourism sector. The study recommends that a comprehensive tourism policy covering tourists, employees and communities around tourist facilities is required. Such a policy should address the rights of HIV infected employees and the provision of prevention and treatment services for HIV/AIDS and STIs as well as a broad range of SRH and family planning services especially

  4. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  5. Behavioural risk factors for HIV/AIDS in a low-HIV prevalence Muslim nation: Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Gibney, L; Choudhury, P; Khawaja, Z; Sarker, M; Vermund, SH

    2008-01-01

    Summary A review of published and unpublished data indicates the prevalence of high-risk behaviours for HIV transmission in segments of the Bangladeshi population. These include casual unprotected sex, heterosexual as well as between males, prior to and after marriage. Intravenous drug use (IVDU) exists though illicit drugs are more commonly inhaled. There is a fear, however, that inhalers may turn to injecting drugs, as is common in neighbouring countries. The lack of public awareness of HIV/AIDS, and misconceptions about the disease, may contribute to continued high-risk behaviours by segments of the population and, thus, to the spread of HIV. Bangladesh’s proximity to India and Myanmar (countries with high HIV endemicity and a rapidly growing number of cases) increases fears of an epidemic in Bangladesh. This proximity will only be a risk factor, however, if high-risk contacts occur between nationals of these countries. PMID:10340200

  6. Self-compassion and risk behavior among people living with HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Dawson Rose, Carol; Webel, Allison; Sullivan, Kathleen M; Cuca, Yvette P; Wantland, Dean; Johnson, Mallory O; Brion, John; Portillo, Carmen J; Corless, Inge B; Voss, Joachim; Chen, Wei-Ti; Phillips, J Craig; Tyer-Viola, Lynda; Rivero-Méndez, Marta; Nicholas, Patrice K; Nokes, Kathleen; Kemppainen, Jeanne; Sefcik, Elizabeth; Eller, Lucille Sanzero; Iipinge, Scholastika; Kirksey, Kenn; Chaiphibalsarisdi, Puangtip; Davila, Nancy; Hamilton, Mary Jane; Hickey, Dorothy; Maryland, Mary; Reid, Paula; Holzemer, William L

    2014-04-01

    Sexual risk behavior and illicit drug use among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) contribute to poor health and onward transmission of HIV. The aim of this collaborative multi-site nursing research study was to explore the association between self-compassion and risk behaviors in PLWHA. As part of a larger project, nurse researchers in Canada, China, Namibia, Puerto Rico, Thailand and the US enrolled 1211 sexually active PLWHA using convenience sampling. The majority of the sample was male, middle-aged, and from the US. Illicit drug use was strongly associated with sexual risk behavior, but participants with higher self-compassion were less likely to report sexual risk behavior, even in the presence of illicit drug use. Self-compassion may be a novel area for behavioral intervention development for PLWHA.

  7. Self-compassion and risk behavior among people living with HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Dawson Rose, Carol; Webel, Allison; Sullivan, Kathleen M; Cuca, Yvette P; Wantland, Dean; Johnson, Mallory O; Brion, John; Portillo, Carmen J; Corless, Inge B; Voss, Joachim; Chen, Wei-Ti; Phillips, J Craig; Tyer-Viola, Lynda; Rivero-Méndez, Marta; Nicholas, Patrice K; Nokes, Kathleen; Kemppainen, Jeanne; Sefcik, Elizabeth; Eller, Lucille Sanzero; Iipinge, Scholastika; Kirksey, Kenn; Chaiphibalsarisdi, Puangtip; Davila, Nancy; Hamilton, Mary Jane; Hickey, Dorothy; Maryland, Mary; Reid, Paula; Holzemer, William L

    2014-04-01

    Sexual risk behavior and illicit drug use among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) contribute to poor health and onward transmission of HIV. The aim of this collaborative multi-site nursing research study was to explore the association between self-compassion and risk behaviors in PLWHA. As part of a larger project, nurse researchers in Canada, China, Namibia, Puerto Rico, Thailand and the US enrolled 1211 sexually active PLWHA using convenience sampling. The majority of the sample was male, middle-aged, and from the US. Illicit drug use was strongly associated with sexual risk behavior, but participants with higher self-compassion were less likely to report sexual risk behavior, even in the presence of illicit drug use. Self-compassion may be a novel area for behavioral intervention development for PLWHA. PMID:24510757

  8. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    PubMed

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  9. Plasma HIV-1 tropism and risk of short-term clinical progression to AIDS or death

    PubMed Central

    Casadellà Fontdevila, Maria; Cozzi-Lepri, Alessandro; Phillips, Andrew; Noguera Julian, Marc; Bickel, Marcus; Sedlacek, Dalibor; Kronborg, Gitte; Lazzarin, Adriano; Zilmer, Kai; Clotet, Bonaventura; Lundgren, Jens D; Paredes, Roger

    2014-01-01

    Introduction It is uncertain if plasma HIV-1 tropism is an independent predictor of short-term risk of clinical progression / death, in addition to the CD4 count and HIV RNA level. We conducted a nested case-control study within EuroSIDA to assess this question amongst people with current HIV RNA level >1000 copies/mL, including both people on ART and those ART naïve. Methods People with an AIDS diagnosis or who died from any causes for whom there was a stored plasma sample with HIV-1 RNA (VL)≥1,000 copies/mL available in the time window of 3–12 months prior to the event were identified. At least one control was selected for each case matched for age, VL and HCV status at the time of sampling. Controls were event-free after a matched duration of time from the date of sampling. Plasma HIV tropism was estimated using 454 and population sequencing (PS). Non-R5 HIV was defined as: (a) ≥2% of sequences with a Geno2Pheno (G2P) FPR≤3.75% by 454, and (b) a G2P FPR≤10% by PS. We also compared CD4 slopes over the 12 months following the date of sampling using a linear mixed model with random intercept according to HIV tropism and ART status. Results The study included 266 subjects, 100 cases and 166 controls, with sample taken on average in 2006; 23% and 24% had non-R5 HIV by 454 and PS respectively. There were 19% women, 25% MSM, 92% Caucasians, 22% HCV+. At the time of sampling, 26% were ART-naïve, 25% had started but were off ART and 49% were receiving ART. The median age, CD4 and viral load was 41 years, 350 cells/mm3 and 4.81 log c/mL, respectively. Baseline characteristics were well balanced by tropism. Factors independently associated with clinical progression or death were female gender (OR=2.12; 95% CI=1.04, 4.36; p=0.038), CD4+ count (OR=0.90 per 100 cells/mm3 higher; 95% CI 0.80, 1.00; p=0.058), being on ART (OR=2.72; 95% CI 1.15, 6.41; p=0.022) and calendar year of sample (OR=0.84 per more recent year; 95% CI=0.77, 0.91; p<0.001). Baseline plasma

  10. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  11. Supplemental risk-assessment guidance for the Superfund program. Part 1. Guidance for Public-Health Risk Assessments. Part 2. Guidance for ecological Risk Assessments. Draft report (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-06-01

    This guidance manual was developed to address the practical aspects and issues pertaining to the Superfund risk-assessment process for both public health and environment concerns. Part 1, Guidance for Public Health Risk Assessments, supplements the Superfund Public Health Evaluation Manual and Superfund Exposure Assessment Manual and the Endangerment Assessment Handbook. Explicit guidance on technical matters which should be followed in developing public health risk assessments for EPA Region 1. The guidance addresses hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and uncertainty/limitations. Part 2 of the manual, Guidance for Ecological Risk Assessments, addresses the collection of site-specific data needed to support an ecological risk assessment, describes a framework for conducting the assessments, and provides several specific approaches for assessing risks to systems exposed to chemical contamination in different media.

  12. Knowledge of AIDS and HIV risk-related sexual behavior among Nigerian naval personnel

    PubMed Central

    Nwokoji, Ugboga Adaji; Ajuwon, Ademola J

    2004-01-01

    Background The epidemic of HIV continues to grow in Nigeria. Personnel in the military are at increased risk of HIV infection. Although HIV-risk related sexual behavior of Nigerian police officers has been studied, little is known about the sexual behavior of their counterparts in the Navy. This study describes knowledge of AIDS, and HIV-risk sexual behavior of naval personnel in Lagos Nigeria. Methods Four hundred and eighty personnel of the Nigerian Navy completed a 70-item questionnaire in 2002. Group discussion and in-depth interviews of four key informants were also conducted to gain insights into the context of risky sexual behaviors and suggestions for feasible HIV primary prevention interventions. Results The mean age of the respondents was 34 years. Although the overall mean AIDS knowledge score was 7.1 of 10 points, 52.1% of respondents believed that a cure for AIDS was available in Nigeria and that one can get HIV by sharing personal items with an infected person (25.3%). The majority (88.1%) had had lifetime multiple partners ranging from 1–40 with a mean of 5.1; 32.5% of male respondents had had sexual contact with a female sex worker, 19.9% did so during the six months preceding the survey. Forty-one percent of those with sexual contact with a female sex worker did not use a condom during the most recent sexual encounter with these women. Naval personnel who have been transferred abroad reported significantly more risky sexual behaviors than others. Group discussants and key informants believed that sex with multiple partners is a tradition that has persisted in the navy even in the era of AIDS because of the belief that AIDS affects only foreigners, that use of traditional medicine provides protection against HIV infection, and influence of alcohol. Conclusion Many naval personnel report participating in high-risk sexual behavior which may increase their risk of acquiring and spreading HIV. Naval personnel live and interact freely with civilian

  13. The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

    PubMed

    Jaykus, L A

    1996-01-01

    Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data

  14. Computer Aided Assessment and Development of Basic Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Macleod, Iain; Overheu, Don

    1977-01-01

    The advantages of applying computer techniques to assessment and development of basic skills in mildly intellectually handicapped children are discussed, and several applications of computer devices to instruction are described. (SBH)

  15. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  16. Occupational Risk of HIV, HBV and HSV-2 Infections in Health Care Personnel Caring for AIDS Patients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuhls, Thomas L.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Female health care workers with exposure to AIDS patients were studied. Two of the 246 workers showed evidence of opportunistic infections. This analysis confirms the low risk of occupationally acquired HIV infection when hospital infection control practices are employed around AIDS patients. (Author/VM)

  17. Are Rural Women Powerless When it Comes to HIV & AIDS Risk? Implications for Adult Education Programmes in South Africa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kiggundu, Edith; Castle, Jane

    2007-01-01

    There is an urgent need for fresh approaches to HIV & AIDS education for adults and youth in South Africa, particularly for those marginalised by society, such as rural black women. In this article we explore the factors which affect awareness, condom use and HIV & AIDS risk among a group of women who attend classes in a rural Adult Education…

  18. Prevention of Substance Abuse and AIDS Risk Behaviors in Adolescents: Is any Real Progress Being Made? Draft.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Richard I.

    Although a great deal of effort has been devoted to the prevention of substance abuse and AIDS risk behaviors in adolescents, the success of such programs can be difficult to measure. This study, in Northeast Houston-Harris County, Texas, examines adolescent attitudes and behaviors toward sexual activity and AIDS and discusses barriers facing…

  19. Impact of a school-based AIDS prevention program on risk and protective behavior for newly sexually active students.

    PubMed

    Levy, S R; Perhats, C; Weeks, K; Handler, A S; Zhu, C; Flay, B R

    1995-04-01

    This project assessed the impact of a school-based AIDS prevention program on student participation in sexual risk and protective behaviors such as use of condoms and use of condoms with foam and intention to participate in such behaviors. The paper focuses on students who became sexually active for the first time between the seventh and eighth grade ("changers," n = 312). The school-based intervention was developed using social cognitive theory and the social influences model of behavior change. Using an experimental, longitudinal design, 15 high-risk school districts were divided randomly into two treatment (10 districts) and one control (five districts) conditions. Students in both treatment conditions received a 10-lesson classroom program in the seventh grade with a five-lesson booster in the eighth grade, while control students received basic AIDS education (current practice in their districts) in compliance with state mandates. Results indicated classroom programs had an impact on certain protective behaviors and on frequency of sexual activity the past month. Post-intervention measures also indicated the program affected students' intentions to perform specific protective behaviors. PMID:7603052

  20. Risk-taking behaviors and AIDS knowledge: experiences and beliefs of minority adolescent mothers.

    PubMed

    Koniak-Griffin, D; Nyamathi, A; Vasquez, R; Russo, A A

    1994-12-01

    Using a qualitative focus-group methodology, this study investigated risk-taking behaviors and AIDS knowledge among minority pregnant and parenting adolescents at risk for heterosexual and perinatal transmission of HIV. Seven focus groups were conducted with a total of 48 young women recruited from alternative schools and residential facilities for pregnant adolescents and young mothers in Southern California. Participants also completed a background questionnaire soliciting sociodemographic information and an AIDS knowledge test. The sample included 33 Latinas and 15 African-Americans, ranging in age from 12 to 19 years. There were bipolar findings regarding risk-taking behaviors. At one end of the continuum were young women with a history of one of more of the following behaviors: multiple sex partners, drug and alcohol use, carrying weapons, and participating in gang-related activities. Contrasting with these, were those who had one or two sex partners and no history of alcohol or drug abuse. A majority of the participants were having unprotected sex. A variety of factors affected condom use, including gender inequality, embarrassment, and personal preferences and values. Risk-taking was also influenced by lack of security and safety in daily living, emotion-focused coping and peer pressure.

  1. Mainstreaming risk reduction in urban planning and housing: a challenge for international aid organisations.

    PubMed

    Wamsler, Christine

    2006-06-01

    The effects of 'natural' disasters in cities can be worse than in other environments, with poor and marginalised urban communities in the developing world being most at risk. To avoid post-disaster destruction and the forced eviction of these communities, proactive and preventive urban planning, including housing, is required. This paper examines current perceptions and practices within international aid organisations regarding the existing and potential roles of urban planning as a tool for reducing disaster risk. It reveals that urban planning confronts many of the generic challenges to mainstreaming risk reduction in development planning. However, it faces additional barriers. The main reasons for the identified lack of integration of urban planning and risk reduction are, first, the marginal position of both fields within international aid organisations, and second, an incompatibility between the respective professional disciplines. To achieve better integration, a conceptual shift from conventional to non-traditional urban planning is proposed. This paper suggests related operative measures and initiatives to achieve this change. PMID:16689916

  2. Applying the theory of reasoned action to AIDS risk behavior: condom use among black women.

    PubMed

    Jemmott, L S; Jemmott, J B

    1991-01-01

    This study tested hypotheses regarding attitudinal and normative influences on intentions to use condoms, a practice that would reduce women's risk of sexually transmitted HIV infection. Participants were 103 sexually active unmarried black women undergraduates at an inner-city commuter university, in an area with a high rate of reported AIDS cases among women. Consistent with the theory of reasoned action, multiple regression analysis on women's anonymous responses to a mailed survey revealed that those who registered more favorable attitudes toward condoms and those who perceived subjective norms more supportive of condom use reported firmer intentions to use condoms in the next three months. Key behavioral beliefs related to attitudes centered on the adverse effects of condom use on sexual enjoyment. Key normative influences were respondents' sexual partners and mothers. However, women's own attitudes were a stronger determinant of intentions to use condoms than were their perceptions of normative influences, particularly among women with above-average AIDS knowledge. The results suggest that the theory of reasoned action provides a potentially useful conceptual framework for interventions to change a key AIDS risk behavior among women.

  3. TOXICOGENOMICS AND HUMAN DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory


    Toxicogenomics and Human Disease Risk Assessment.

    Complete sequencing of human and other genomes, availability of large-scale gene
    expression arrays with ever-increasing numbers of genes displayed, and steady
    improvements in protein expression technology can hav...

  4. Risk Assessment with Adolescent Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulides, T. E.; Richardson, G.; Graham, F.; Kennedy, P. J.; Kelly, T. P.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the…

  5. Computational Toxicology in Cancer Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment over the last half century has, for many individual cases served us well, but has proceeded on an extremely slow pace and has left us with considerable uncertainty. There are certainly thousands of compounds and thousands of exposure scenarios that remain unteste...

  6. Chemical Mixtures: Cancer Risk Assessment Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation will describe how EPA uses linear and nonlinear methods to derive cancer slope factors and reference doses,respectively, for single carcinogens, as described in EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. Then, the presentation will show how these toxicity ...

  7. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  8. Clinical Model for Suicide Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kral, Michael J.; Sakinofsky, Isaac

    1994-01-01

    Presents suicide risk assessment in a two-tiered model comprising background/contextual factors and subjectivity. The subjectivity portion is formulated around Shneidman's concepts of perturbation and lethality. Discusses decision of hospital admission versus ambulatory care. Suggests that theoretically informed approach should serve both…

  9. Assessing suicide risk in older adults.

    PubMed

    Diggle-Fox, Barbara Suzy

    2016-10-20

    Suicide in older adults is continuing to rise and, as the older population increases, so will the rate of suicide. By learning more about the risk factors, assessment areas to explore, and ways to improve treatment, primary care providers can help decrease the incidence of suicidal behaviors in this population. PMID:27623296

  10. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  11. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  12. The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

    The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

  13. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    PubMed

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  14. Resources for global risk assessment: The International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases

    SciTech Connect

    Wullenweber, Andrea Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database ( (www.tera.org/iter)) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at (http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm), and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET ( (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/)). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  15. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  16. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    PubMed

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates.

  17. Assessing the Impact of Testing Aids on Post-Secondary Student Performance: A Meta-Analytic Investigation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larwin, Karen H.; Gorman, Jennifer; Larwin, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Testing aids, including student-prepared testing aids (a.k.a., cheat sheets or crib notes) and open-textbook exams, are common practice in post-secondary assessment. There is a considerable amount of published research that discusses and investigates the impact of these testing aids. However, the findings of this research are contradictory and…

  18. Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Aspray, Terry J

    2015-02-01

    More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD.

  19. Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

  20. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R.

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  1. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons.

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista de Duffard, A M; Duffard, R

    1996-01-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone,dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or changes in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. PMID:9182042

  2. [Brazil: street children in the risk zone for HIV and AIDS].

    PubMed

    Ommundsen, C

    1993-08-26

    In the fall of 1992 the Foundation ARCA (Association for Prevention and Assistance of Street Children with AIDS) was established in Sao Paulo. Eventually cooperation developed between Sao Paulo state officials, Noah's Ark, the Swedish Red Cross, and ARCA with a view to establishing a home for street children with AIDS. The lifestyle of these children exposes them to a high risk of infection with AIDS because of narcotic use, sex behavior, and prostitution. Unofficial data from Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Brazil suggest that 2-10% of street children may be infected with HIV. In February 1989 there 145 million children in the world who worked in the streets, 24 million of them in Brazil (7 million lived permanently in the streets). The state of Sao Paulo had 64% of the 22,545 AIDS cases reported up to March 1993. Approximately 100,000 HIV-positive people are treated at other health facilities in other states of Brazil. The shelter for AIDS-afflicted street children intends to treat the infections or give the children the opportunity to die with dignity. These children are 8-17 years old. The initial 15 beds are envisioned to increase to 60 beds. Preventive promotional campaigns are also planned to reduce the spread of HIV among street kids. In the summer of 1992 the mass media in Sao Paulo and ARCA hosted a cultural fundraiser to which influential persons were invited, and the profits were donated to ARCA. An abandoned motel has also ben donated to ARCA for carrying out the desired activities.

  3. Self-compassion and Risk Behavior among People Living with HIV/AIDS

    PubMed Central

    Webel, Allison; Sullivan, Kathleen M.; Cuca, Yvette P.; Wantland, Dean; Johnson, Mallory O.; Brion, John; Portillo, Carmen J.; Corless, Inge B.; Voss, Joachim; Chen, Wei-Ti; Phillips, J. Craig; Tyer-Viola, Lynda; Rivero-Méndez, Marta; Nicholas, Patrice K.; Nokes, Kathleen; Kemppainen, Jeanne; Sefcik, Elizabeth; Eller, Lucille Sanzero; Iipinge, Scholastika; Kirksey, Kenn; Chaiphibalsarisdi, Puangtip; Davila, Nancy; Hamilton, Mary Jane; Hickey, Dorothy; Maryland, Mary; Reid, Paula; Holzemer, William L.

    2014-01-01

    Sexual risk behavior and illicit drug use among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) contribute to poor health and onward transmission of HIV. The aim of this collaborative multi-site nursing research study was to explore the association between self-compassion and risk behaviors in PLWHA. Nurse researchers in Canada, China, Namibia, Puerto Rico, Thailand and the U.S. enrolled 2,182 PLWHA using convenience sampling. Over half of study participants were sexually active in the past three months. Participants with higher self-compassion were less likely to report sexual risk behavior. However, if a person also used illicit drugs, the relationship with self-compassion was reduced. Self-compassion may be a novel area for behavioral intervention development for PLWHA. PMID:24510757

  4. Opioid risk assessment in palliative medicine.

    PubMed

    Dale, Rebecca; Edwards, Jeremy; Ballantyne, Jane

    2016-03-01

    Pain management with opioids is an integral part of palliative medicine. As the doses and durations of opioid therapy increase, the inherent risks of opioid therapy rise. Although opioids are effective analgesics, they bring with them complex medical and psychological side effects. Aberrant behavior is dangerous and can be difficult to identify as it results in a splitting in the goals of treatment between the patient and providers. One effective strategy in preventing that situation is through the early identification of at-risk patients. There are several tools that can help identify patients at higher risk of addiction and aberrant behaviors during opioid therapy. Structured use of these tools in conjunction with the clinic exam, regular follow-up visits, and lab testing can further reduce patient risk and improve success in opioid therapy. This article will review the background behind a structured strategy for opioid risk assessment using the Opioid Risk Tool, SOAPP-R, and DIRE tools. In addition, example aberrant behaviors and follow-up strategies will be reviewed. It will be demonstrated that careful screening and follow-up allow risk factors to be recognized and addressed early. PMID:27058865

  5. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickol, Craig L.

    2008-01-01

    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  6. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  7. Microbiological risk assessment in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Cahill, Sarah M; Jouve, Jean-Louis R

    2004-09-01

    Microbiological risk assessment (MRA) has been evolving at the national and international levels as a systematic and objective approach for evaluating information pertaining to microbiological hazards in foods and the risks they pose. This process has been catalyzed by international food trade requirements to base sanitary measures on sound scientific evidence and appropriate risk assessments. All countries, including developing countries, need to understand and use MRA. MRA is resource intensive, as has been demonstrated by some of the the assessments undertaken in industrialized countries. However, when used in the appropriate circumstances MRA offers many benefits. The process of undertaking MRA improves the understanding of key issues, enables an objective evaluation of risk management options, and provides a scientific justification for actions. Although the gap between developing countries and some industrialized countries is quite extensive with regard to MRA, many developing countries recognize the need to at least understand and move toward using MRA. This process requires development of infrastructure and enhancement of scientific and technical expertise while making optimal use of limited resources. International organizations, such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, are in a position to provide countries with guidance, training, information resources, and technical assistance to develop and/or strengthen food safety infrastructure. Enhanced cooperation and collaboration at all levels are needed for such efforts to be successful and to ensure that MRA, as a food safety tool, is available to all countries. PMID:15453597

  8. Assessment of comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge level among in-school adolescents in eastern Ethiopia

    PubMed Central

    Oljira, Lemessa; Berhane, Yemane; Worku, Alemayehu

    2013-01-01

    Introduction In Ethiopia, more adolescents are in school today than ever before; however, there are no studies that have assessed their comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS. Thus, this study tried to assess the level of this knowledge and the factors associated with it among in-school adolescents in eastern Ethiopia. Methods A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted using a facilitator-guided self-administered questionnaire. The respondents were students attending regular school in 14 high schools located in 14 different districts in eastern Ethiopia. The proportion of in-school adolescents with comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge was computed and compared by sex. The factors that were associated with the comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge were assessed using bivariate and multivariable logistic regression. Results Only about one in four, 677 (24.5%), in-school adolescents have comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge. The knowledge was better among in-school adolescents from families with a relatively middle or high wealth index (adjusted OR [95% CI]=1.39 [1.03–1.87] and 1.75 [1.24–2.48], respectively), who got HIV/AIDS information mainly from friends or mass media (adjusted OR [95% CI]=1.63 [1.17–2.27] and 1.55 [1.14–2.11], respectively) and who received education on HIV/AIDS and sexual matters at school (adjusted OR [95% CI]=1.59 [1.22–2.08]). The females were less likely to have comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge compared to males (adjusted OR and [95% CI]=0.60 [0.49–0.75]). Conclusions In general, only about a quarter of in-school adolescents had comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge. Although the female adolescents are highly vulnerable to HIV infection and its effects, they were by far less likely to have comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge. HIV/AIDS information, education and communication activities need to be intensified in high schools. PMID:23517715

  9. Clinical Risk Assessment in Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Asefzadeh, Saeed; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad H.; Nikpey, Ahmad; Atighechian, Golrokh

    2013-01-01

    Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin's Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital) through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG) performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN) was in respiratory care “Ventilator's alarm malfunction (no alarm)” with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal “not washing the NG-Tube” with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care. PMID:23930171

  10. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    PubMed Central

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

  11. Trends in quantitative cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Morris, S C

    1991-01-01

    Quantitative cancer risk assessment is a dynamic field, more closely coupled to rapidly advancing biomedical research than ever before. Six areas of change and growth are identified: expansion from models of cancer initiation to a more complete picture of the total carcinogenic process; trend from curve-fitting to biologically based models; movement from upperbound estimates to best estimates, with a more complete treatment of uncertainty; increased consideration of the role of susceptibility; growing development of expert systems and decision support systems; and emerging importance of risk communication. PMID:2050076

  12. Code System for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

    2001-03-27

    Version 00 SEISIM1 calculates the probabilities of seismically induced failures for components and systems and propagates these calculations to determine the probability of accident sequences and the resulting total risk, which is quantified as an expected value of radiation release and exposure from a given nuclear power plant. SEISIM1 was developed as a fundamental tool for the systems analysis portion of the NRC's Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP). The SSMRP provides a complete, self-containedmore » methodology to assess and quantify the risk to nuclear power plants from seismic events and seismically induced failures.« less

  13. Towards a nanospecific approach for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dekkers, Susan; Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Vandebriel, Rob J; Micheletti, Christian; Cabellos, Joan; Janer, Gemma; Fuentes, Natalia; Vázquez-Campos, Socorro; Borges, Teresa; Silva, Maria João; Prina-Mello, Adriele; Movia, Dania; Nesslany, Fabrice; Ribeiro, Ana R; Leite, Paulo Emílio; Groenewold, Monique; Cassee, Flemming R; Sips, Adrienne J A M; Dijkzeul, Aart; van Teunenbroek, Tom; Wijnhoven, Susan W P

    2016-10-01

    In the current paper, a new strategy for risk assessment of nanomaterials is described, which builds upon previous project outcomes and is developed within the FP7 NANoREG project. NANoREG has the aim to develop, for the long term, new testing strategies adapted to a high number of nanomaterials where many factors can affect their environmental and health impact. In the proposed risk assessment strategy, approaches for (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs), grouping and read-across are integrated and expanded to guide the user how to prioritise those nanomaterial applications that may lead to high risks for human health. Furthermore, those aspects of exposure, kinetics and hazard assessment that are most likely to be influenced by the nanospecific properties of the material under assessment are identified. These aspects are summarised in six elements, which play a key role in the strategy: exposure potential, dissolution, nanomaterial transformation, accumulation, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity. With the current approach it is possible to identify those situations where the use of nanospecific grouping, read-across and (Q)SAR tools is likely to become feasible in the future, and to point towards the generation of the type of data that is needed for scientific justification, which may lead to regulatory acceptance of nanospecific applications of these tools.

  14. Towards a nanospecific approach for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Dekkers, Susan; Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Vandebriel, Rob J; Micheletti, Christian; Cabellos, Joan; Janer, Gemma; Fuentes, Natalia; Vázquez-Campos, Socorro; Borges, Teresa; Silva, Maria João; Prina-Mello, Adriele; Movia, Dania; Nesslany, Fabrice; Ribeiro, Ana R; Leite, Paulo Emílio; Groenewold, Monique; Cassee, Flemming R; Sips, Adrienne J A M; Dijkzeul, Aart; van Teunenbroek, Tom; Wijnhoven, Susan W P

    2016-10-01

    In the current paper, a new strategy for risk assessment of nanomaterials is described, which builds upon previous project outcomes and is developed within the FP7 NANoREG project. NANoREG has the aim to develop, for the long term, new testing strategies adapted to a high number of nanomaterials where many factors can affect their environmental and health impact. In the proposed risk assessment strategy, approaches for (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs), grouping and read-across are integrated and expanded to guide the user how to prioritise those nanomaterial applications that may lead to high risks for human health. Furthermore, those aspects of exposure, kinetics and hazard assessment that are most likely to be influenced by the nanospecific properties of the material under assessment are identified. These aspects are summarised in six elements, which play a key role in the strategy: exposure potential, dissolution, nanomaterial transformation, accumulation, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity. With the current approach it is possible to identify those situations where the use of nanospecific grouping, read-across and (Q)SAR tools is likely to become feasible in the future, and to point towards the generation of the type of data that is needed for scientific justification, which may lead to regulatory acceptance of nanospecific applications of these tools. PMID:27255696

  15. Improving environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceuticals.

    PubMed

    Ågerstrand, Marlene; Berg, Cecilia; Björlenius, Berndt; Breitholtz, Magnus; Brunström, Björn; Fick, Jerker; Gunnarsson, Lina; Larsson, D G Joakim; Sumpter, John P; Tysklind, Mats; Rudén, Christina

    2015-05-01

    This paper presents 10 recommendations for improving the European Medicines Agency's guidance for environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceutical products. The recommendations are based on up-to-date, available science in combination with experiences from other chemical frameworks such as the REACH-legislation for industrial chemicals. The recommendations concern: expanding the scope of the current guideline; requirements to assess the risk for development of antibiotic resistance; jointly performed assessments; refinement of the test proposal; mixture toxicity assessments on active pharmaceutical ingredients with similar modes of action; use of all available ecotoxicity studies; mandatory reviews; increased transparency; inclusion of emission data from production; and a risk management option. We believe that implementation of our recommendations would strengthen the protection of the environment and be beneficial to society. Legislation and guidance documents need to be updated at regular intervals in order to incorporate new knowledge from the scientific community. This is particularly important for regulatory documents concerning pharmaceuticals in the environment since this is a research field that has been growing substantially in the last decades.

  16. Technique for assessing erosion risk from mountain footpaths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garland, Gerald G.

    1990-11-01

    One of the most pressing problems facing wilderness managers in the ecologically fragile Drakensberg Mountains, South Africa, is that of path erosion, since it detracts from the wilderness experience and is very costly to remediate. As increasing demand for wilderness and outdoor recreation places greater pressure on paths and trails, it will be necessary to increase path network size and capacity, and it is important that new paths are routed such that maintenance requirements are minimal. This study describes the development of a technique based on the site and environmental variables of rainfall, topographic slope, and lithology, which enables assessment of path erosion risk before paths are planned and constructed. The technique was tested on a path at the Drakensberg resort of Loteni, and showed good correlation with actual path degradation. When used as a tool in path network planning, it can aid in the selection of low-maintenance routes and also help in planning maintenance budgets.

  17. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.

  18. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. PMID:26215051

  19. Extramarital sex and HIV risk behavior among US adults: results from the National AIDS Behavioral Survey.

    PubMed Central

    Choi, K H; Catania, J A; Dolcini, M M

    1994-01-01

    Data from the National AIDS Behavioral Survey were used to examine the social distribution of extramarital sex and risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among married individuals in the United States. Of 1686 married respondents living across the United States, 2.2% reported extramarital sex; of 3827 married respondents living in 23 urban areas with large Hispanic or African-American populations, 2.5% reported having sexual partners outside marriage. The data indicate that the correlates of extramarital sex varied by race/ethnicity. Low levels of condom use were found among people reporting extramarital sex (8% to 19% consistent users). PMID:7998648

  20. Extramarital sex and HIV risk behavior among US adults: results from the National AIDS Behavioral Survey.

    PubMed

    Choi, K H; Catania, J A; Dolcini, M M

    1994-12-01

    Data from the National AIDS Behavioral Survey were used to examine the social distribution of extramarital sex and risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among married individuals in the United States. Of 1686 married respondents living across the United States, 2.2% reported extramarital sex; of 3827 married respondents living in 23 urban areas with large Hispanic or African-American populations, 2.5% reported having sexual partners outside marriage. The data indicate that the correlates of extramarital sex varied by race/ethnicity. Low levels of condom use were found among people reporting extramarital sex (8% to 19% consistent users).

  1. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  2. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  3. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  4. Causal Inference and Omitted Variable Bias in Financial Aid Research: Assessing Solutions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riegg, Stephanie K.

    2008-01-01

    This article highlights the problem of omitted variable bias in research on the causal effect of financial aid on college-going. I first describe the problem of self-selection and the resulting bias from omitted variables. I then assess and explore the strengths and weaknesses of random assignment, multivariate regression, proxy variables, fixed…

  5. Evaluating AIDS-Related Social Skills in Anglo and Latino Adolescents: Focus on Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blumberg, Elaine J.; Hovell, Melbourne F.; Werner, Cynthia A.; Kelley, Norma J.; Sipan, Carol L.; Burkham, Susan M.; Hofstetter, C. Richard

    1997-01-01

    Examines the assessment of AIDS-related social skills (measured by role play) in Anglo and Latino Adolescents (N=383) and explores ethnic and gender differences on these skills. Results indicate that anxiety and nonverbal behavior are generalized response classes that transcend specific social skills, suggesting the importance of measuring…

  6. Assessing Riverside Community College Nursing Student Attitudes toward Exposure to AIDS/HIV-Positive Patients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kross, Carolyn Sue

    In fall 1990, a study was conducted to assess the attitudes of nursing students who were attending Riverside Community College (RCC), in California, toward exposure to Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome/Human Immunodeficiency Virus (AIDS/HIV) positive patients in a hospital setting. All students enrolled in RCC's associate degree nursing program…

  7. Using a Technology-Based Case to Aid in Improving Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zelin, Robert C., II

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes how a technology-based case using Microsoft Access can aid in the assessment process. A case was used in lieu of giving a final examination in an Accounting Information Systems course. Students worked in small groups to design a database-driven payroll system for a hypothetical company. Each group submitted its results along…

  8. Assessing Tuition and Student Aid Strategies: Using Price-Response Measures to Simulate Pricing Alternatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    St. John, Edward P.

    1994-01-01

    A study used price-response measures from recent national studies to assess college and university pricing (tuition and student aid) alternatives in diverse institutional settings. It is concluded that such analyses are feasible. Analysis indicated limits to "Robin Hood" pricing patterns are predominant in private colleges. Consideration of new…

  9. Lecturers' Perspectives on the Use of a Mathematics-Based Computer-Aided Assessment System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Broughton, Stephen J.; Robinson, Carol L.; Hernandez-Martinez, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Computer-aided assessment (CAA) has been used at a university with one of the largest mathematics and engineering undergraduate cohorts in the UK for more than ten years. Lecturers teaching mathematics to first year students were asked about their current use of CAA in a questionnaire and in interviews. This article presents the issues that these…

  10. Effective Computer-Aided Assessment of Mathematics; Principles, Practice and Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenhow, Martin

    2015-01-01

    This article outlines some key issues for writing effective computer-aided assessment (CAA) questions in subjects with substantial mathematical or statistical content, especially the importance of control of random parameters and the encoding of wrong methods of solution (mal-rules) commonly used by students. The pros and cons of using CAA and…

  11. When Summative Computer-Aided Assessments Go Wrong: Disaster Recovery after a Major Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harwood, Ian

    2005-01-01

    This case study outlines the events of a recent summative computer-aided assessment (CAA) failure involving 280 first-year undergraduate students. Post-test analysis found that the central server had become unexpectedly overloaded, thereby causing the CAA to be abandoned. Practical advice on just what to do in the event of a summative CAA failure…

  12. Technology-Aided Assessment of Sensorimotor Function in Early Infancy

    PubMed Central

    Allievi, Alessandro G.; Arichi, Tomoki; Gordon, Anne L.; Burdet, Etienne

    2014-01-01

    There is a pressing need for new techniques capable of providing accurate information about sensorimotor function during the first 2 years of childhood. Here, we review current clinical methods and challenges for assessing motor function in early infancy, and discuss the potential benefits of applying technology-assisted methods. We also describe how the use of these tools with neuroimaging, and in particular functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), can shed new light on the intra-cerebral processes underlying neurodevelopmental impairment. This knowledge is of particular relevance in the early infant brain, which has an increased capacity for compensatory neural plasticity. Such tools could bring a wealth of knowledge about the underlying pathophysiological processes of diseases such as cerebral palsy; act as biomarkers to monitor the effects of possible therapeutic interventions; and provide clinicians with much needed early diagnostic information. PMID:25324827

  13. Risk and revisionism in arsenic cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Mushak, P; Crocetti, A F

    1995-01-01

    Oral exposures of nonoccupational populations to environmental inorganic arsenic are associated with skin and internal cancers as well as various noncarcinogenic effects. Cancer risk assessments have been based largely on epidemiological studies of a large population exposed to inorganic arsenic in well water in Taiwan. Criticisms and skepticism of the use of the Taiwanese data for estimating arsenic cancer risks outside of Taiwan, including potential use by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for regulatory purposes, have been expressed on various grounds. The nature and extent of such criticisms have sharpened with recent findings in the exposed Taiwanese of increased incidence of internal cancers (bladder, kidney, liver, and lung), in addition to already-observed skin cancer, coupled with a good likelihood that these findings will produce more stringent arsenic regulation in the United States and elsewhere. These criticisms collectively posit a revisionist view that: 1) cancer incidence among the Taiwanese was amplified by a number of host and environmental factors not applicable elsewhere, 2) the cancer dose-response curve may not be linear at the lower exposures elsewhere, and 3) there is a toxicokinetic and metabolic threshold to cancer risk that was exceeded by the Taiwanese. However, a number of the arguments against wide use of the Taiwanese data are flawed and subject to challenge. We explore some of these arguments and their critical evaluation, particularly as they concern certain exposure, metabolic, and nutritional determinants of the cancer risk of inorganic arsenic in the Taiwanese. PMID:7588479

  14. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    PubMed

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  15. An assessment of community readiness for HIV/AIDS preventive interventions in rural Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Aboud, Frances; Huq, Nafisa Lira; Larson, Charles P; Ottisova, Livia

    2010-02-01

    Efforts to prevent HIV from becoming widespread among the youth population 15-24 years in Bangladesh are in the early stages. However, conservative religious and cultural norms may curtail the dissemination of needed information about sexuality and condoms. The community-readiness stages model was adopted as a framework for assessing the level of preparedness of community leaders to facilitate planned HIV prevention efforts. Six focus group discussions with three professional groups (teachers, businessmen, drugshop vendors) in Hobiganj district were conducted in late 2005, and a single multi-professional group made up of teachers, imams, and drugshop vendors was convened in early 2007 to assess changes. The audio recordings in Bangla were coded as were English translations. Everyone had heard of AIDS and regarded it as a potential catastrophe for the health, economy and social fabric of Bangladesh. Remarks concerning Stage 1-Vulnerability indicated that most did not believe their community to be at risk, though Bangladesh was. Remarks at Stage 2-Knowledge of Transmission were mostly vague but accurately identified sex, blood and needles as the main means of spread; however sex with sex workers was also mentioned in each group. Remarks at Stage 3-Prevention showed strong opposition to condoms for unmarried males and a preference for current means of forbidding sex outside of marriage. A few in each group recognized the importance of condoms for wayward youth. Stage 4-Planning discussions centered on raising awareness and fear, and a desire for government and media to take the lead. By 2007 participants articulated more realistic strategies that they themselves could, and had, implemented, but also raised barriers that authorities should help them overcome. The findings provide formative information on the constraints and opportunities of community groups as partners in HIV preventive interventions and strategies to help them move to a higher stage of readiness.

  16. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  17. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  18. [Methods of risk assessment and their validation].

    PubMed

    Baracco, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    The review of the literature data shows several methods for the the risks assessment of biomnechanical overload of the musculoskeletal system in activities with repetitive strain of the upper limbs and manual material handling. The application of these methods should allow the quantification ofriskfor the working population, the identification of the preventive measures to reduce the risk and their effectiveness and thle design of a specific health surveillance scheme. In this paper we analyze the factors which must be taken into account in Occupational Medicine to implement a process of validation of these methods. In conclusion we believe it will necessary in the future the availability of new methods able to analyze and reduce the risk already in the design phase of the production process. PMID:25558718

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment of disassembly procedures

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-11-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the use of Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. PRA is a methodology for (i) identifying combinations of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents (ii) estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and (iii) estimating the consequences of each accident. Specifically the study focused on evaluating the risks associated with dissembling a hazardous assembly. The PRA for the operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of establishing a risk-consequence goal for DOE operations.

  20. Degraded Environments Alter Prey Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2013-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment. PMID:23403754

  1. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-11-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  2. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-01-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  3. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  4. Operationalizing the assessment and management of violence risk in the short-term.

    PubMed

    Doyle, Michael; Logan, Caroline

    2012-01-01

    Assessing risk of violence in the short term is crucial for managing and preventing violence, especially in institutions such as psychiatric units and prisons. Despite a lack of consensus on the definition of "short term", a number of recent tools and guidelines have been developed to aid short-term clinical decision-making. Whereas the supporting evidence for the new tools is impressive, limitations remain in terms of the focus on prediction, limited consideration of strengths, and poor integration with formulation and risk management. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a brief clinical guide for the dynamic assessment of risks, strengths and treatability. It focuses on short-term risks and the characteristics of the individual that, if changed, might lead to an increase or decrease in risk. The START has the potential to operationalize the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach in order to inform the evaluation of multiple risk domains relevant to everyday psychiatric clinical practice. However, explicit guidance on integrating risk assessment, formulation and management is limited in the START and this paper describes the SPJ approach, reviews recent developments in approaches to risk, and considers how the START can be used to inform SPJ approaches and link risk assessment, formulation, and management. PMID:22753147

  5. Operationalizing the assessment and management of violence risk in the short-term.

    PubMed

    Doyle, Michael; Logan, Caroline

    2012-01-01

    Assessing risk of violence in the short term is crucial for managing and preventing violence, especially in institutions such as psychiatric units and prisons. Despite a lack of consensus on the definition of "short term", a number of recent tools and guidelines have been developed to aid short-term clinical decision-making. Whereas the supporting evidence for the new tools is impressive, limitations remain in terms of the focus on prediction, limited consideration of strengths, and poor integration with formulation and risk management. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a brief clinical guide for the dynamic assessment of risks, strengths and treatability. It focuses on short-term risks and the characteristics of the individual that, if changed, might lead to an increase or decrease in risk. The START has the potential to operationalize the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach in order to inform the evaluation of multiple risk domains relevant to everyday psychiatric clinical practice. However, explicit guidance on integrating risk assessment, formulation and management is limited in the START and this paper describes the SPJ approach, reviews recent developments in approaches to risk, and considers how the START can be used to inform SPJ approaches and link risk assessment, formulation, and management.

  6. Risk assessment of GM plants: avoiding gridlock?

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, Mike J; Sweet, Jeremy; Poppy, Guy M

    2003-05-01

    Cultivation of genetically modified crops is presently based largely on four crops containing few transgenes and grown in four countries. This will soon change and pose new challenges for risk assessment. A more structured approach that is as generic as possible is advocated to study consequences of gene flow. Hazards should be precisely defined and prioritized, with emphasis on quantifying elements of exposure. This requires coordinated effort between large, multidisciplinary research teams.

  7. Implementing caries risk assessment and clinical interventions.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2010-07-01

    This article suggests a practical methodology to implement the scientific information presented in the earlier articles into clinical practice. The Caries Balance/Imbalance Model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult illustrate evidence-based treatment options. Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply that there is currently only one correct way that this can be achieved; they are used in this article only as examples.

  8. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  9. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  10. Wrist proprioceptive acuity: A comprehensive robot-aided assessment.

    PubMed

    Cappello, Leonardo; Contu, Sara; Konczak, Juergen; Masia, Lorenzo

    2015-08-01

    Proprioception is the sense of the body awareness. Proprioceptive deficits represent frequent consequences of several neurological conditions like stroke, Parkinson's disease and others. The assessment of such somatosensory function is crucial, although the available clinical tests are not sensitive enough. The human wrist is a crucial joint for many activities of daily living and to address the lack of its characterization in terms of proprioceptive acuity the authors in previous studies proposed a novel method that combined the use of a 3-DoF robot and a threshold haunting paradigm. Further experiments were performed to characterize the proprioceptive acuity of the dominant wrist for adduction, extension, pronation and supination by using a 2-alternative-forced-choice test. The acuity thresholds obtained from six subjects (mean values ± standard deviation of 1.65±0.39 for extension, 1.13±0.34 for adduction, 1.90±0.58 for pronation and 1.70±0.30 for supination) were finally combined with the ones harvested in the previous studies for flexion and abduction in order to build the first comprehensive database of human wrist proprioceptive acuity.

  11. Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Methods Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. Results The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women. PMID:24204664

  12. Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

    PubMed Central

    Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

  13. Health Costs of Wealth Gains: Labor Migration and Perceptions of HIV/AIDS Risks in Mozambique

    PubMed Central

    Agadjanian, Victor; Arnaldo, Carlos; Cau, Boaventura

    2012-01-01

    The study employs survey data from rural Mozambique to examine how men’s labor migration affects their non-migrating wives’ perceptions of HIV/AIDS risks. Using a conceptual framework centered on tradeoffs between economic security and health risks that men’s migration entails for their left-behind wives, it compares women married to migrants and those married to non-migrants while also distinguishing between economically successful and unsuccessful migration. The analysis finds that the economic success of men’s migration, rather than migration itself, significantly predicts women’s worries about getting infected by their husbands or their own extramarital partners, and their husbands’ stance on condom use. These findings are situated within a broader context of socio-economic, gender, and marital dynamics and vulnerabilities produced or amplified by male labor migration in sub-Saharan and similar developing settings. PMID:22500057

  14. Venous thromboembolism in medical outpatients - a cross-sectional survey of risk assessment and prophylaxis.

    PubMed

    Lawall, Holger; Matthiessen, Andreas; Hohmann, Volker; Bramlage, Peter; Haas, Sylvia; Schellong, Sebastian

    2011-01-01

    The degree of thromboprophylaxis in medical outpatients is low despite a substantial risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). This may be attributable to difficulties in assessing risk. Assessment tools like the Haas' scorecard aid in determining the need for thromboprophylaxis. We aimed at evaluating how the use of this tool may aid physicians in appropriately using anticoagulants. This was an epidemiological, cross-sectional survey of acute medically ill patients with limited mobility treated by general practitioners and internists. Risk assessment for VTE by the treating physician was compared to calculated risk. Of 8,123 patients evaluated between August 2006 and April 2008, 7,271 fulfilled the in- and exclusion criteria. Mean age was 69.4 ± 13.6 years, and 45.2% were male. Of these 82.8% were high risk based on their acute medical condition, 37.9% based on their underlying chronic condition. Immobilisation, heart failure, pneumonia, age, obesity, and major varicosis were the most frequently encountered risk factors. The agreement between the Haas' scorecard and physician indicated risk was high. At least 94.1% of patients with high risk received adequate anticoagulation mostly as low molecular weight heparins for a mean duration of 15.1 ± 30.5 days. There is a substantial risk for VTE in medical outpatients. Using a simple structured scorecard resulted in an overall appropriate risk assessment and high degree of anticoagulation. The scorecard may provide a tool to improve the overall awareness for VTE risk in medical outpatients, substantially improving the degree of prophylaxis in a patient population with largely underestimated risk.

  15. Offshore blowouts, data for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Holand, P.

    1995-12-31

    Blowouts are, besides gas leakages, the major contributor to the total risk for offshore installations. Therefore, the blowout risk is always included in Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) of offshore installations in the Norwegian Sector of the North Sea. SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database has existed since 1984 (until 1990 it was called Marintek`s blowout database). In 1990 the responsibility of the database was transferred to SINTEF Safety and Reliability. Throughout these years the database has been used for assessing blowout risk associated to development and operation of fields offshore Norway. Six oil companies and two consultants are presently sponsoring the database. These companies are using the database when performing risk analyses. During the past three years the database has been subjected to a thorough quality improvement, both with respect to the user interface, and most important, regarding the blowout data included in the database. What is unique with this database, besides the high quality of blowout descriptions, is first that the blowout causes are categorized related to loss of primary and secondary barriers. Secondly that the user interface makes it possible to establish searches to withdraw information regarding any blowout type subjected for specific searches.

  16. A First-pass Natural Hazard Risk Assessment for the Asia-Pacific Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cummins, P. R.; Simpson, A.; Griffin, J.; Dhu, T.; Schneider, J.

    2008-12-01

    The high risk of natural disasters in developing nations has considerable implications for international aid programs. Natural disasters can significantly compromise development progress and reduce the effectiveness of aid investments. In order to better understand the threat that natural disasters may pose to its development aid program, AusAID commissioned Geoscience Australia to conduct a broad natural hazard risk assessment of the Asia-Pacific region. The assessment included earthquake, volcanic eruption, tsunami, cyclone, flood, landslide and wildfire hazards, with particular attention given to countries the Australian Government considered to be of high priority to its development aid program. Geoscience Australia's preliminary natural hazard risk assessment of the region aimed to help AusAID identify countries and areas at high risk from one or more natural hazards. The frequency of a range of sudden-onset natural hazards was estimated and, allowing for data constraints, an evaluation was made of potential disaster impact. Extra emphasis was placed on relatively rare but high-impact events, such as the December 2004 tsunami, which might not be well documented in the historical record. While a detailed risk assessment was well beyond the scope of this study, it was recognized that some understanding of the potential impact of natural disasters could be achieved through the simple means of developing appropriate overlays of population and hazard. For example, given an estimate of the frequency and magnitude (VEI) at which volcanic eruptions in a certain region occur, the populations impacted could be roughly estimated by considering the average population close enough to a volcano to receive a significant impact from ash fall. Our preliminary assessment of natural hazard risk in the Asia-Pacific region highlights the potential for the region to experience a megadisaster affecting millions of people during the coming century. While the scale of such a disaster

  17. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al.

  18. Project Fox: Assessing Risks Posed By Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.; Chen, X.; Liu, W.; Manchev, P.; Paté-Cornell, M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to make decisions on how to invest limited research dollars on asteroid surveillance and mitigation options, an analytic understanding of the risks posed by impacts is necessary. Qualitative and quantitative studies have been performed to assess such risks, and some reasonable point estimates have been proposed. However, since consequential asteroid impacts tend to be rare events, point estimates and expected annual death rates do not adequately convey the heavy tail of the distribution, potentially leading to misguided resource allocations. We propose and develop a framework for new risk measures, including a distribution over the number of fatalities from asteroid impacts and the probability of a globally consequential impact. We implement a simulation of asteroid impacts using probabilistic inputs for impactor characteristics, and a Poisson process for asteroid arrivals over the next 100 years. Simulation results indicate that a significant portion of the risk to humans comes from asteroids in the 300-1000 meter diameter range; this is because asteroid impacts in this range can produce global effects, and are more frequent than those from asteroids greater than 1km in diameter. The relative importance of this size regime in overall asteroid impact risk is robust in simulation results, and we find the magnitude of risks is still sensitive to factors that contribute global effects from an asteroid impact. Initial results are provided on the sensitivity of impact risks to various mitigation measures, including 'civil defense' methods. These results underscore the need for next-generation survey missions, and can help provide the basis for setting future space telescope observation requirements.

  19. Understanding the link between trafficking in persons and HIV and AIDS risk in Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Kamazima, Switbert R; Ezekiel, Mangi J; Kazaura, Method R; Fimbo, Benett

    2012-01-01

    The magnitude of trafficking in persons in Tanzania is unknown. Consequently, available information on health risks of persons trafficked for different forms of exploitation is extremely scanty. We conducted a baseline study in eight administrative regions of Tanzania using both qualitative and quantitative methods to generate data on the health conditions of trafficked persons to inform trafficking in persons control measures through HIV and AIDS interventions. Study participants included the national, regional and district community development officers, district medical officers, local government leaders, managers or representatives of non-governmental organizations involved in anti-trafficking in persons activities, members of the community and victims. Findings indicated that common forms of labour into which persons are trafficked include domestic services, agriculture (farming), construction, mining/quarrying, fishing, lumbering and manufacturing. Trafficked persons are reported to be exposed to risks like overcrowding, long working hours, psychological problems, physical injuries, impotence, breathing problems and sexually transmitted infections including HIV. It is concluded that the reported occupational hazards in industries where trafficked persons are forced into are not specific to trafficked persons as they affect all labourers. However, the underground nature of the trafficking in persons process increases health problems and risks, including the vulnerability to HIV infection. More tailored research is needed, especially to find means of how to reach out and provide services to this particular vulnerable population, validate labour forms of exploitation into which persons are trafficked to enable the integration or mainstreaming of HIV and AIDS and trafficking in persons at the policy and programmatic levels. In addition, findings would facilitate the understanding of the link between increased risk of IRV and trafficking in persons. PMID:26591750

  20. Understanding the link between trafficking in persons and HIV and AIDS risk in Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Kamazima, Switbert R; Ezekiel, Mangi J; Kazaura, Method R; Fimbo, Benett

    2012-01-01

    The magnitude of trafficking in persons in Tanzania is unknown. Consequently, available information on health risks of persons trafficked for different forms of exploitation is extremely scanty. We conducted a baseline study in eight administrative regions of Tanzania using both qualitative and quantitative methods to generate data on the health conditions of trafficked persons to inform trafficking in persons control measures through HIV and AIDS interventions. Study participants included the national, regional and district community development officers, district medical officers, local government leaders, managers or representatives of non-governmental organizations involved in anti-trafficking in persons activities, members of the community and victims. Findings indicated that common forms of labour into which persons are trafficked include domestic services, agriculture (farming), construction, mining/quarrying, fishing, lumbering and manufacturing. Trafficked persons are reported to be exposed to risks like overcrowding, long working hours, psychological problems, physical injuries, impotence, breathing problems and sexually transmitted infections including HIV. It is concluded that the reported occupational hazards in industries where trafficked persons are forced into are not specific to trafficked persons as they affect all labourers. However, the underground nature of the trafficking in persons process increases health problems and risks, including the vulnerability to HIV infection. More tailored research is needed, especially to find means of how to reach out and provide services to this particular vulnerable population, validate labour forms of exploitation into which persons are trafficked to enable the integration or mainstreaming of HIV and AIDS and trafficking in persons at the policy and programmatic levels. In addition, findings would facilitate the understanding of the link between increased risk of IRV and trafficking in persons.

  1. Risk and Protective Factors for Bullying Victimization among AIDS-Affected and Vulnerable Children in South Africa

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cluver, Lucie; Bowes, Lucy; Gardner, Frances

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: To examine whether bullying is a risk factor for psychological distress among children in poor, urban South Africa. To determine risk and protective factors for bullying victimization. Method: One thousand and fifty children were interviewed in deprived neighborhoods, including orphans, AIDS-affected children, street children, and…

  2. Incarcerated Adolescents' Engagement in AIDS/HIV High-Risk Behaviors: Ethnic-Racial and Gender Differences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harper, Gary W.

    Incarcerated youth are a subgroup of adolescents who are at particularly high risk for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection. This study explored ethnic-racial and gender differences in incarcerated adolescents' engagement in Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)/HIV high-risk behaviors. All subjects for the study were residents of…

  3. Effective Communication of Risks to Young Adults: Using Message Framing and Visual Aids to Increase Condom Use and Std Screening

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T.

    2011-01-01

    Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs)--including HIV/AIDS--are among the most common infectious diseases in young adults. How can we effectively promote prevention and detection of STDs in this high risk population? In a two-phase longitudinal experiment we examined the effects of a brief risk awareness intervention (i.e., a sexual health…

  4. Enhancing awareness to mitigate the risk of HIV/AIDS in older adults.

    PubMed

    Inelmen, Emine Meral; Sergi, Giuseppe; De Rui, Marina; Manzato, Enzo

    2014-12-01

    HIV is often assumed to only affect younger people, and many older people do not realize that they might risk acquiring the virus. Given that sexual transmission is by far the most common way to contract HIV around the world, health care professionals do not usually pay enough attention to the possibility of HIV/AIDS in older adults, based on the common conviction that they no longer have any sexual desires and that they are sexually inactive. Nevertheless, the sexual behavior of older people is likely to change over time, as aging baby boomers progress into their 60s and 70s, meeting the criteria for "successful aging", and not conforming to the stereotype of "sexless elderly". Hence the urgent need to awareness is that HIV remains as a major health threat even in advanced age. Prompt diagnosis and treatment are especially crucial in older adults because of their general frailty and high comorbidity levels. This article reviews recent literature concerning HIV/AIDS in older adults, as regard the related epidemiological, clinical and public health issues, with a view to suggesting how the rising rate of HIV transmission in this age group might be mitigated, and shows the main points that HCP should tackle to identify older people at risk of HIV infection. In summary, there is a pressing need to develop effective prevention schemes and to adapt clinical and programmatic approaches to improve the survival of older people with HIV. PMID:24789219

  5. Recurrent pneumonia mortality risk in a HIV/AIDS Puerto Rican cohort.

    PubMed

    Mayor, A M; Gomez, M A; Rios, E; Hunter, R F

    2003-12-01

    Recurrent pneumonia (RP) within 12 months is one of the AIDS diagnosis criteria. To gain knowledge of RP infection in HIV-infected patients, we studied 145 RP cases detected in a cohort of 2,996 HIV patients in Puerto Rico between Jan. 1992-Dec. 2001. The RP prevalence was 4.8%; 77.2% were males and 62.1% were injecting drug users (IDU). At the time of RP diagnosis, the mean CD4+ T cell count was 93.8 cells/mm3, 59.3% were in antiretroviral treatment, 13% had received the pneumococcal vaccine and 84.8% had another AIDS related condition. Over 37% received two or more antiretroviral medications. The death rate in the first year after the RP diagnosis was 63.4%. A Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that CD4+ T cells <200/mm3 (p<0.05), history of toxoplasmosis (p<0.01), wasting syndrome (p<0.01), esophageal candidiasis (p<0.05) and lower number of antiretroviral medications (p<0.05) increased their mortality risk. The studied patients had a highly compromised immune system and a very low pneumococcal vaccination percent at the time of RP diagnosis. Low CD4+ T cells significantly increased the hazard and mortality risk of the cases studied. Antecedents of antiretroviral therapy in these patients ensure a better outcome with lower mortality. Efforts to increase the vaccination rate should reduce the RP incidence in our HIV-infected population.

  6. Levels of HIV risk behaviour and AIDS knowledge in Thai men having sex with men.

    PubMed

    Sittitrai, W; Brown, T; Sakondhavat, C

    1993-01-01

    Although many of the earliest cases of AIDS and HIV infection in Thailand were men who had sex with other men (MHSWM), transmission by heterosexual intercourse and needle sharing rapidly became dominant. This resulted in comparatively little attention being given to studies of risk behaviour and seroprevalence in groups of MHSWM with a consequent lack of information about these populations relevant to designing effective interventions. In the Partner Relations Survey, 3.3% of male Thais described their orientation as bisexual or homosexual, most probably an underestimate of the occurrence of same sex behaviour in Thai males. This paper briefly reviews the situation and presents results from a survey in the northeast of Thailand among men who have sex with men. Substantial levels of risk behaviour were found in MHSWM in the Northeast, with high rates of partner exchange and low levels of consistent condom use in insertive and receptive anal intercourse. Significant defects in AIDS knowledge existed implying a strong need for enhanced and expanded interventions in this community. Factors relevant to the design of interventions are highlighted and recommendations for further studies of MHSWM in Thailand are presented.

  7. Gender and class differences in young people's sexuality and HIV/AIDS risk-taking behaviours in Thailand.

    PubMed

    Thianthai, Chulanee

    2004-05-01

    This study examines gender and class differences in young people's beliefs about sexuality and HIV/AIDS risk-taking behaviours in Thailand. Sixty young people aged 15-19, divided equally by gender and socioeconomic background, participated in focus groups and in-depth interviews. Four topics were explored: the differences between 'good' and 'bad' girls/boys; young people's perceptions of sexuality; social class variations in young people's knowledge of HIV/AIDS and perceptions of risk; and the most influential institutions shaping young people's sexual attitudes. Results showed that young people screened potential sexual partners utilizing an image of 'good girls/boys' as potential HIV/AIDS-free partners; young people defined sexuality in terms of love/sexual relationships, premarital sex, promiscuity, and virginity; and HIV/AIDS awareness varied according to class. Young people of all classes failed to demonstrate an in-depth understanding of how they can contract AIDS. They neither viewed themselves as being in an at-risk group, nor considered their sexual behaviours to be at-risk behaviours. Finally, family, friends, and mass media were reported to be among the most influential institutions shaping young people's sexual attitudes. In the struggle against HIV/AIDS, these institutions together with health education not only protect but also can empower young people in Thailand.

  8. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, N.; Qiu, Y.; Gan, H.; Niu, C.; Liu, J.; Gan, Y.; Zhou, N.

    2014-09-01

    Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG). The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  9. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  10. Assessment of bone ages by the Tanner-Whitehouse method using a computer-aided system.

    PubMed

    Drayer, N M; Cox, L A

    1994-12-01

    A computer-aided system to estimate bone age based on Fourier analysis was assessed by reference to the original radiographs used to produce the Tanner-Whitehouse 2 (TW2) standards for the radius, ulna and short finger bones. The computer-aided system involved matching a template of each bone to the scanned image of the radiograph. The computer then generated a stage of bone maturity, individual and total bone scores and a value for bone age. The bone ages assessed by the computer-aided system were no different from the original TW2 reference values, indicating the applicability of the system. The system was used to assess the bone ages of tall Dutch girls, and the results obtained were compared with more traditional assessments made by an experienced rater. For the radiographs from the tall girls, there was good agreement for individual bones between this method and the traditional assessment by the rater, but less agreement for the total 13-bone score and bone age.

  11. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  12. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we provide context for this report

  13. AIDS knowledge, condom attitudes, and risk-taking sexual behavior of substance-abusing juvenile offenders on probation or parole.

    PubMed

    Robertson, A; Levin, M L

    1999-10-01

    AIDS knowledge, condom attitudes, and sexual behavior were examined in a sample of 193 substance-abusing juvenile offenders on probation or parole. The majority of these youths reported being sexually active, and many admitted to early onset of sexual activity as well as unsafe sexual practices. Potential predictors of condom use by these juveniles were examined including age, condom use at first sexual experience, number of sexual partners in the last 6 months, locus of control, AIDS knowledge, condom attitudes, perceived risk for AIDS, self-efficacy for avoiding HIV, condom use by peers, delinquency risk, race, and gender. General attitudes toward condoms and the reported use of a condom at first sexual intercourse experience were the only statistically significant predictors of subsequent condom use. The relevance of these findings to the development of AIDS prevention programs for juvenile offenders is discussed.

  14. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:19048472

  15. Workshop overview: Arsenic research and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Sams, Reeder Wolf, Douglas C.; Ramasamy, Santhini; Ohanian, Ed; Chen, Jonathan; Lowit, Anna

    2007-08-01

    The chronic exposure of humans through consumption of high levels of inorganic arsenic (iAs)-contaminated drinking water is associated with skin lesions, peripheral vascular disease, hypertension, and cancers. Additionally, humans are exposed to organic arsenicals when used as pesticides and herbicides (e.g., monomethylarsonic acid, dimethylarsinic acid (DMA{sup V}) also known as cacodylic acid). Extensive research has been conducted to characterize the adverse health effects that result from exposure to iAs and its metabolites to describe the biological pathway(s) that lead to adverse health effects. To further this effort, on May 31, 2006, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) sponsored a meeting entitled 'Workshop on Arsenic Research and Risk Assessment'. The invited participants from government agencies, academia, independent research organizations and consultants were asked to present their current research. The overall focus of these research efforts has been to determine the potential human health risks due to environmental exposures to arsenicals. Pursuant in these efforts is the elucidation of a mode of action for arsenicals. This paper provides a brief overview of the workshop goals, regulatory context for arsenical research, mode of action (MOA) analysis in human health risk assessment, and the application of MOA analysis for iAs and DMA{sup V}. Subsequent papers within this issue will present the research discussed at the workshop, ensuing discussions, and conclusions of the workshop.

  16. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  17. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  18. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  19. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  20. A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

  1. A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

    PubMed

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions. PMID:21499931

  2. A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

    PubMed

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

  3. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  4. THE ROLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN ADDRESSING HAZARDOUS WASTE ISSUES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment plays many important roles in addressing hazardous waste issues. In addition to providing a scientific framework and common health metric to evaluate risks. Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or "Superfund") risk assessm...

  5. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  6. Key findings: a qualitative assessment of provider and patient perceptions of HIV/AIDS in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Ransom, James; Johnson, Anton F

    2009-01-01

    In 1997, at the Davos International Economic Forum, Nelson Mandela stated that "the poor, the vulnerable, the unschooled, the socially marginalized, the women, and the children, those who bear the burden of colonial legacy-these are the sectors of society which bear the burden of AIDS" (Richter, 2001). Nearly a decade later, that statement still holds true, especially in Mr. Mandela's home country. South Africa continues to have one of the world's highest prevalence ratios of HIV infection (UNAIDS, 2002). This paper explores the significance of perceptions, knowledge, practices, and attitudes toward HIV/AIDS in two important groups in South Africa: health care providers based in public health clinics and their patients. This paper will assess the provider-patient interaction from the perspective of members of the South African HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention community. The analysis will examine the results of in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with providers and patients, respectively, in two of South Africa's nine provinces. Between December 2002 and April 2003 in Guateng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, we conducted (1) in-depth interviews of a spectrum of health care providers at five local public health clinics and (2) focus groups of patients who patronize those clinics. The results show that there are gaps in the HIV/AIDS knowledge of some of the health care providers and that the participants' health beliefs and practices are embedded in the social conditions in which they live and work, which has a ripple effect on their risk behaviors and trumps any intervention messages from their health care providers and larger public health intervention messages. PMID:19229772

  7. Ecological risk assessment of contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Jensen, John; Pedersen, Marianne Bruus

    2006-01-01

    This review has described three cases of ecological risk assessment. The cases include two heavy metals (Cu and Zn) and an anthropogenic organic chemical (DDT). It concludes that there are at least two major constraints hampering the use of laboratory tests to predict effects under natural field conditions. One key issue is bioavailability, and another is suboptimal conditions or multiple stresses in the field such as climatic stress (drought, frost), predators, competition, or food shortage. On the basis of the presented case studies, it was possible to answer three essential questions often raised in connection to ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites. 1. To what extend does soil screening level (SSL) estimate the risk? The SSL are generally derived at levels corresponding to the lowest observed effect levels in laboratory studies, which often is close to the background levels found in many soils. In the cases of zinc and especially DDT, the SSL seemed quite conservative, whereas for copper they resemble the level at which changes in the community structure of soil microarthropods and the plant community have been observed at contaminated sites. The SSL correspond as a whole relatively well with concentrations where no effects or only minor effects were observed in controlled field studies. However, large variation in field surveys can often make it difficult to conclude to what extent the SSL corresponded to no-effect levels in the field. 2. Do bioassays represent a more realistic risk estimate? Here, there is no firm conclusion. The zinc study in UK showed a better relationship between the outcome of ex situ bioassays and field observations than the SSL. The latter overestimated the risk compared to field observations. However, this would be species dependent, as the sensitivity to metals may vary considerably between recognized test species, even within the same group of organisms, such as Folsomia candida and Folsomia fimetaria or Eisenia fetida

  8. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  9. Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, R. Karl

    2005-01-01

    Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

  10. Assessment of the efficacy of total lymphocyte counts as predictors of AIDS defining infections in HIV-1 infected people

    PubMed Central

    Stebbing, J; Sawleshwarkar, S; Michailidis, C; Jones, R; Bower, M; Mandalia, S; Nelson, M; Gazzard, B

    2005-01-01

    Background: The CD4 count is a dominant prognostic and predictive factor in HIV infection. This study assessed the utility of the total lymphocyte count (TLC) in place of the CD4 count to predict the development of AIDS defining opportunistic infections (ADOI). Methods: The Chelsea and Westminster cohort was used to identify those people with a first episode of an ADOI. Corresponding CD4 and TLCs were recorded before diagnosis or at the time of first prescribing prophylaxis; patients without an AIDS defining opportunistic infection were defined as being at "risk" and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to display the results of sensitivity and the false positive error rate of total lymphocyte and CD4 count groups. Results: A significant linear correlation was seen between the log10 CD4 count and log10 TLC (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.70, p<0.001). The finer cut off value for TLC where false positive error rate is minimum and sensitivity maximum was 1500–2000 cells/mm3. Patients with TLC 1000–1500 cells/mm3 were estimated to be at 40% increased risk of developing an ADOI. The cut off value for CD4 counts measured 200 cells/mm3 above which the risk developing an ADOI decreased. Patients with a CD4 count of 150–200 cells/mm3 were at a 34% increased risk of developing an ADOI. The area under the ROC curve for TLC was 10% lower than that for CD4 count. Conclusions: The TLC is minimally less reliable than the CD4 count as a predictor of ADOIs. In the absence of expensive equipment for CD4 measurement, the TLC is a useful test. PMID:16143689

  11. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  12. Assessing risk of solid waste compost

    SciTech Connect

    Dyer, J.M.; Razvi, A.S. )

    1987-03-01

    This paper addresses the movement of metals in soils and their accumulation in plants. Research with sewage sludge compost indicates that these risks can be minimized with proper handling and management. The objectives of this study were: (I) to evaluate potential groundwater contamination due to plant nutrients and heavy metals in the compost; and (II) to assess the accumulation of metals in plants grown on compost-amended soil. Data are presented for analyses of nickel, lead, cadmium, copper and zinc in snap beans.

  13. Methodological challenges in health risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-10-12

    Risk assessment, a major activity of both health and regulatory agencies, is subject to large and unavoidable uncertainties. Thus, different teams of knowledgeable experts can come to different conclusions about risks to human health from various sorts of hazards. This report examines and compares analyses by two or more agencies of ten health hazards or potential hazards: ethylene dibromide, formaldehyde, Tris, dioxin (limited to cancer risks of contaminated soil), lead (reproductive effects), cotton dust, noise (long-term hearing impairment), passive smoking, dietary fat (cancer risks), and the radiation hazards of mammography. Each set of risk assessments is analyzed in depth. The report then turns to cross-cutting analyses of such matters as setting priorities for risk assessment, approaches and methods used to evaluate different kinds of risks, and the relationships between risk assessment and risk management. Overall, the report found large differences among risk assessments of the same hazard, but these differences are often quite appropriate.

  14. NEUROBEHAVIORAL TESTING IN HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

    PubMed Central

    Rohlman, Diane S.; Lucchini, Roberto; Anger, W. Kent; Bellinger, David C.; van Thriel, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    Neurobehavioral tests are being increasingly used in human risk assessment and there is a strong need for guidance. The field of neurobehavioral toxicology has evolved from research which initially focused on using traditional neuropsychological tests to identify “abnormal cases” to include methods used to detect sub-clinical deficits, to further incorporate the use of neurosensory assessment, and to expand testing from occupational populations to vulnerable populations including older adults and children. Even as exposures in the workplace are reduced, they have been increasing in the environment and research on exposure has now expanded to cross the entire lifetime. These neurobehavioral methods are applied in research and the findings used for regulatory purposes to develop preventative action for exposed populations. This paper reflects a summary of the talks presented at the symposium presented at the 11th meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association. PMID:18539229

  15. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  16. Assessing the impact of international conservation aid on deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bare, Matthew; Kauffman, Craig; Miller, Daniel C.

    2015-12-01

    International conservation donors have spent at least 3.4 billion to protect biodiversity and stem tropical deforestation in Africa since the early 1990s. Despite more than two decades of experience, however, there is little research on the effect of this aid at a region-wide scale. Numerous case studies exist, but show mixed results. Existing research is usually based on community perception or focused on short-term donor objectives rather than specific conservation outcomes, like deforestation rates. Thus, the impact of billions of dollars of conservation aid on deforestation rates remains an open question. This article uses an original dataset to analyze the effect of international conservation aid on deforestation rates in 42 African countries between 2000 and 2013. We first describe patterns of conservation aid across the continent and then assess its impact (with one to five-year lags), controlling for other factors that may also affect deforestation, including rural population, protected areas (PAs), governance, and other economic and commodity production variables. We find that conservation aid is associated with higher rates of forest loss after one- or two-year lags. A similar result holds for PA extent, suggesting possible displacement of deforestation from PAs. However, governance quality in high forest cover countries moderates these effects such that deforestation rates are reduced. Rural population is the most consistent factor associated with forest loss, confirming previous studies of this driver. Our results suggest that in heavily forested countries, development projects designed to support conservation work initially in conditions of good governance, but that conservation aid alone is insufficient to mitigate larger deforestation drivers.

  17. Computer-aided quantitative bone scan assessment of prostate cancer treatment response

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Matthew S.; Chu, Gregory H.; Kim, Hyun J.; Allen-Auerbach, Martin; Poon, Cheryce; Bridges, Juliette; Vidovic, Adria; Ramakrishna, Bharath; Ho, Judy; Morris, Michael J.; Larson, Steven M.; Scher, Howard I.; Goldin, Jonathan G.

    2012-01-01

    Objective The development and evaluation of a computer-aided bone scan analysis technique to quantify changes in tumor burden and assess treatment effects in prostate cancer clinical trials. Methods We have developed and report on a commercial fully automated computer-aided detection system. Using this system, scan images were intensity normalized, then lesions identified and segmented by anatomic region-specific intensity thresholding. Detected lesions were compared against expert markings to assess the accuracy of the computer-aided detection system. The metrics Bone Scan Lesion Area, Bone Scan Lesion Intensity, and Bone Scan Lesion Count were calculated from identified lesions, and their utility in assessing treatment effects was evaluated by analyzing before and after scans from metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients: 10 treated and 10 untreated. In this study, patients were treated with cabozantinib, a MET/VEGF inhibitor resulting in high rates of resolution of bone scan abnormalities. Results Our automated computer-aided detection system identified bone lesion pixels with 94% sensitivity, 89% specificity, and 89% accuracy. Significant differences in changes from baseline were found between treated and untreated groups in all assessed measurements derived by our system. The most significant measure, Bone Scan Lesion Area, showed a median (interquartile range) change from baseline at week 6 of 7.13% (27.61) in the untreated group compared with −73.76% (45.38) in the cabozantinib-treated group (P = 0.0003). Conclusions Our system accurately and objectively identified and quantified metastases in bone scans, allowing for interpatient and intrapatient comparison. It demonstrates potential as an objective measurement of treatment effects, laying the foundation for validation against other clinically relevant outcome measures. PMID:22367858

  18. Prospective study of attitudinal and relationship predictors of sexual risk in the multicenter AIDS cohort study.

    PubMed

    Ostrow, David G; Silverberg, Michael J; Cook, Robert L; Chmiel, Joan S; Johnson, Lisette; Li, Xiuhong; Jacobson, Lisa P

    2008-01-01

    We examined the influence of attitudes concerning HIV transmission, safe sex, and sexual sensation seeking, as well as negotiated risk reduction with primary partners, on the proportion of unprotected sexual partners (%UASP) among men who have sex with men (MSM). Participants were 263 HIV-seropositive and 238 HIV-seronegative MSM in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study between 1999 and 2003 who completed a 20-item attitude survey twice. Behavioral data were collected concurrently and 6-12 months after each survey. Among seropositives, decreased HIV concern and increased safer sex fatigue were associated with higher %UASP at 6 and 12 months. Among seronegatives, increased %UASP at 12 months was associated with safer sex fatigue. At 6 months and 12 months, risk reduction agreements were associated with increased %UASP among seronegatives in seroconcordant monogamous relationships, reflecting their abandonment of condoms in such partnerships. We conclude that HIV prevention efforts should target modifiable attitudes (reduced concern about HIV and safer sex fatigue) and increases in sexual risk-taking of MSM, particularly among HIV+ men having sex with serodiscordant partners.

  19. HIV/AIDS and the risk of deep vein thrombosis: a study of 45 patients with lower extremity involvement.

    PubMed

    Saber, A A; Aboolian, A; LaRaja, R D; Baron, H; Hanna, K

    2001-07-01

    Many aspects of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) have been described in detail in the literature. However, there have been very few articles on the phenomenon of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in the lower extremities of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS patients. The objective of this communication is to record the incidence of DVT in HIV/AIDS patients and the risks for development of embolic events and to emphasize the need for prevention and for the vigorous treatment of this complication. We conducted a retrospective review of HIV/AIDS-infected patients with DVT admitted to Mount Sinai School of Medicine/Cabrini Hospital in New York during the last 5 years. Analysis includes demographic data; risk factors for HIV/AIDS infection; associated medical problems; recent surgery; and laboratory findings including CD4 counts, platelet counts, prothrombin times, partial thromboplastin times, and plasma albumin levels; and image studies. From January 1995 to January 2000 4752 HIV/AIDS-infected patients were admitted. Of those admitted to the hospital 45 (0.95%) were found to have DVT. There were 36 males and nine females (mean age 43 years). Of the 45 patients 38 had infectious complications and 13 developed a malignancy. The distribution of the thromboses were the femoral vein in 23 patients, the popliteal vein in 20 patients, and the iliofemoral system in 2 patients. Twelve patients had recurrent DVT and three patients developed a pulmonary embolism. HIV/AIDS infection is a considerable risk for development of DVT in the lower extremity. Statistically DVT in HIV/AIDS is approximately 10 times greater than in the general population. Emphasis upon prevention and vigorous treatment of DVT is recommended.

  20. [Information, attitudes, perceptions, and symbolic representations of AIDS risk and prevention among poor adolescents in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil].

    PubMed

    Merchán-Hamann, E

    1995-01-01

    Four hundred and sixteen poor adolescents of both sexes in Rio de Janeiro were interviewed to study both their level of information and symbolic representations concerning AIDS risk and prevention. The most common source of information on HIV/AIDS was the mass media, particularly television broadcasts. There were doubts and lack of trust regarding official government information on HIV/AIDS. Nearly 70% of the adolescents interviewed believe in HIV transmission through mosquito bites and some 40% through casual contact with wounds or scars or sharing of bathroom utensils. Men seemed to show a greater awareness and autonomy vis- -vis taking initiatives in sex encounters. Attitudes of segregation and exclusion of people with AIDS persist. Lack of prevention was attributed to the impossibility of predicting sexual encounters. The study of symbolic aspects concerning causes of HIV/AIDS displayed broad variability: 80% of the interviewees associated AIDS with excesses in sexual behavior and 40% with homosexual practices. Causal images vary from the predominant view of AIDS as unfair punishment to the less frequent stance considering AIDS as fair punishment (due to sinful behavior). An ambiguous attitude towards transgression (taking as its sterotype the figure of Rio's "malandro", or "streetwise dude") may influence perception of risk and prevention. The paper calls attention to the need for implementing clearer and more direct educational programs. This could be useful for the implementation of culturally sensitive control measures through a reshaping of AIDS symbols. The author recommends a better understanding of the social and economic determinants of disease and reinforcement of the kinds of discourse which empower and raise the self-esteem of poor adolescents by endorsing their civil rights.

  1. HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitudes and risk behaviours among Orang Asli in Peninsular Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Anita, S; Zahir, W M; Sa'iah, A; Rahimah, M A; Sha'ari, B N

    2007-08-01

    Orang Asli, the indigenous people of Peninsular Malaysia comprises only 0.5% of total Malaysia population but contribute to 0.06% of total notified HIV cases in the country. Their current knowledge, attitude and practice related to HIV was not known. A cross-sectional study on knowledge, attitude and practice among Orang Asli in Peninsular Malaysia was carried out involving 2706 Orang Asli from 33 remote and 47 fringe villages. Generally, the level of knowledge was fair (30%-50%) with mean scores of 55.7% (SD 31.7) while attitudes were negative. There was gender bias towards misconception on HIV transmission and sources of information. HIV seroprevalence of 0.3% was detected while risk behaviors were low. This study provides baseline information for HIV/AIDS preventive programs to the Orang Asli communities.

  2. Simplified probabilistic risk assessment in fuel reprocessing

    SciTech Connect

    Solbrig, C.W.

    1993-03-01

    An evaluation was made to determine if a backup mass tracking computer would significantly reduce the probability of criticality in the fuel reprocessing of the Integral Fast Reactor. Often tradeoff studies, such as this, must be made that would greatly benefit from a Probably Risk Assessment (PRA). The major benefits of a complete PRA can often be accrued with a Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA). An SPRA was performed by selecting a representative fuel reprocessing operation (moving a piece of fuel) for analysis. It showed that the benefit of adding parallel computers was small compared to the benefit which could be obtained by adding parallelism to two computer input steps and two of the weighing operations. The probability of an incorrect material moves with the basic process is estimated to be 4 out of 100 moves. The actual values of the probability numbers are considered accurate to within an order of magnitude. The most useful result of developing the fault trees accrue from the ability to determine where significant improvements in the process can be made. By including the above mentioned parallelism, the error move rate can be reduced to 1 out of 1000.

  3. Simplified probabilistic risk assessment in fuel reprocessing

    SciTech Connect

    Solbrig, C.W.

    1993-01-01

    An evaluation was made to determine if a backup mass tracking computer would significantly reduce the probability of criticality in the fuel reprocessing of the Integral Fast Reactor. Often tradeoff studies, such as this, must be made that would greatly benefit from a Probably Risk Assessment (PRA). The major benefits of a complete PRA can often be accrued with a Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA). An SPRA was performed by selecting a representative fuel reprocessing operation (moving a piece of fuel) for analysis. It showed that the benefit of adding parallel computers was small compared to the benefit which could be obtained by adding parallelism to two computer input steps and two of the weighing operations. The probability of an incorrect material moves with the basic process is estimated to be 4 out of 100 moves. The actual values of the probability numbers are considered accurate to within an order of magnitude. The most useful result of developing the fault trees accrue from the ability to determine where significant improvements in the process can be made. By including the above mentioned parallelism, the error move rate can be reduced to 1 out of 1000.

  4. The new tapestry of risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Bernard; Cory-Slechta, Deborah; Gilbert, Steven G.; Mergler, Donna; Miller, Elise; Miller, Claudia; Newland, M. Christopher; Rice, Deborah; Schettler, Ted

    2008-01-01

    Neurotoxicology is entering a new phase in how it views and practices risk assessment. Perhaps more than any of the other disciplines that comprise the science of toxicology, it has been compelled to consider a daunting array of factors other than those directly coupled to chemical and dose, and the age and sex of the subject population. In epidemiological investigations, researchers are increasingly cognizant of the problems introduced by allegedly controlling for variables classified as confounders or covariates. In essence, they reason, the consequence is blurring or even concealing interactions of exposure with modifiers such as the individual’s social ecology. Other researchers question the traditional practice of relying on values such as NOAELs when they are abstracted from a biological entity that in reality represents a multiplicity of intertwined systems. Although neurotoxicologists have come to recognize the complexities of assessing risk in all its dimensions, they still face the challenge of communicating this view to the health professions at large. PMID:18501430

  5. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  6. A statistical model for collective risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keef, Caroline; Tawn, Jonathan A.; Lamb, Rob

    2010-05-01

    In this paper we present the theoretical basis of a statistical method that can be used as the basis of a collective risk assessment for country (or continent)-wide events. Our method is based on the conditional dependence model of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), which has been extended to handle missing data and temporal dependence by Keef et al (2009). This model describes the full joint distribution function of a set of variables and incorporates separate models for the marginal and dependence characteristics of the set using a copula approach. The advantages of this model include; the flexibility in terms of types of dependence modelled; the ability to handle situations where the dependence in the tails of the data is not the same as that in the main body of the data; the ability to handle both temporal and spatial dependence; and the ability to model a large number of variables. In this paper we present further extensions to the statistical model which allow us to simulate country-wide extreme events with the correct spatial and temporal structure and show an application to river flood events. Heffernan J. E. and Tawn J. A. (2004) A conditional approach for multivariate extreme values (with discussion) J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 66 497-546 Keef, C., J. Tawn, and C. Svensson. (2009). Spatial risk assessment for extreme river flows. Applied Statistics 58,(5) pp 601-618

  7. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersion 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.

  8. Cyanide analyses for risk and treatability assessments

    SciTech Connect

    MacFarlane, I.D.; Elseroad, H.J.; Pergrin, D.E.; Logan, C.M.

    1994-12-31

    Cyanide, an EPA priority pollutant and target analyte, is typically measured as total. However, cyanide complexation, information which is not acquired through total cyanide analysis, is often a driver of cyanide toxicity and treatability. A case study of a former manufacture gas plant (MGP) is used to demonstrate the usability of various cyanide analytical methods for risk and treatability assessments. Several analytical methods, including cyanide amenable to chlorination and weak acid dissociable cyanide help test the degree of cyanide complexation. Generally, free or uncomplexed cyanide is more biologically available, toxic, and reactive than complexed cyanide. Extensive site testing has shown that free and weakly dissociable cyanide composes only a small fraction of total cyanide as would be expected from the literature, and that risk assessment will be more realistic considering cyanide form. Likewise, aqueous treatment for cyanide can be properly tested if cyanide form is accounted for. Weak acid dissociable cyanide analyses proved to be the most reliable (and potentially acceptable) cyanide method, as well as represent the most toxic and reactive cyanide forms.

  9. Physiologically based pharmacokinetics and cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Andersen, M E; Krishnan, K

    1994-01-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling involves mathematically describing the complex interplay of the critical physicochemical and biological determinants involved in the disposition of chemicals. In this approach, the body is divided into a number of biologically relevant tissue compartments, arranged in an anatomically accurate manner, and defined with appropriate physiological characteristics. The extrapolation of pharmacokinetic behavior of chemicals from high dose to low dose for various exposure routes and species is possible with this approach because these models are developed by integrating quantitative information on the critical determinants of chemical disposition under a biological modeling framework. The principal application of PBPK models is in the prediction of tissue dosimetry of toxic moiety (e.g., parent chemical, reactive metabolite, macromolecular adduct) of a chemical. Such an application has been demonstrated with dichloromethane, a liver and lung carcinogen in the B6C3F1 mouse. The PBPK model-based risk assessment approach estimated a cancer risk to people of 3.7 x 10(-8) for a lifetime inhalation exposure of 1 micrograms/m3, which is lower by more than two orders of magnitude than that calculated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency using the linearized multistage model (for low-dose extrapolation) and body surface correction factor (for interspecies scaling). The capability of predicting the target tissue exposure to toxic moiety in people with PBPK models should help reduce the uncertainty associated with the extrapolation procedures adopted in conventional dose-response assessment. PMID:8187697

  10. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  11. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  12. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment for Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betul Demircioglu, Mine; Sesetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-05-01

    Using a GIS-environment to present the results, seismic risk analysis is considered as a helpful tool to support the decision making for planning and prioritizing seismic retrofit intervention programs at large scale. The main ingredients of seismic risk analysis consist of seismic hazard, regional inventory of buildings and vulnerability analysis. In this study, the assessment of the national earthquake hazard based on the NGA ground motion prediction models and the comparisons of the results with the previous models have been considered, respectively. An evaluation of seismic risk based on the probabilistic intensity ground motion prediction for Turkey has been investigated. According to the Macroseismic approach of Giovinazzi and Lagomarsino (2005), two alternative vulnerability models have been used to estimate building damage. The vulnerability and ductility indices for Turkey have been taken from the study of Giovinazzi (2005). These two vulnerability models have been compared with the observed earthquake damage database. A good agreement between curves has been clearly observed. In additional to the building damage, casualty estimations based on three different methods for each return period and for each vulnerability model have been presented to evaluate the earthquake loss. Using three different models of building replacement costs, the average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss ratio (PMLR) due to regional earthquake hazard have been provided to form a basis for the improvement of the parametric insurance model and the determination of premium rates for the compulsory earthquake insurance in Turkey.

  13. Quality assurance checks on ecological risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Ferson, S.; Ginzburg, L.

    1995-12-31

    Three major criticisms are routinely made against probabilistic ecological risk assessments: (1) input distributions are often not available, (2) correlations and dependencies are often ignored, and (3) mathematical structure of the ecological model is often questionable. These criticisms are well understood by risk analysts, but it is generally assumed that their only solution is additional empirical effort to develop input distributions, measure correlations and validate the model. As a practical matter, since such empirical information is typically incomplete (and indeed often quite sparse), analysts are forced to make assumptions without empirical justifications. There are, however, computational methods that may allow analysts to sidestep a lack of information to partially or completely answer the three criticisms. When empirical information about the input distributions is limited, comprehensive representations of uncertainty can be estimated using traditional confidence interval or bounding procedures. Using recently developed methods, the probability distribution bounds can be used directly in calculations. When the correlation and dependency structure among variables is unknown, bounds on solutions can be computed without having to make unjustified and possibly false assumptions about independence. Finally, automated checks on the ecological model or mathematical expression used in the risk analysis can be employed to ensure the absence of several classes of structural and mathematical errors. Several kinds of profound errors which are routinely committed in practice, including dimensional or unit discordance, infeasible configurations for correlation, and multiple instantiations of a repeated variable, can all be detected using currently available methods and software.

  14. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of disassembly procedures

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-10-01

    Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) is an analytic methodology for identifying the combination of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents. Accidents are defined as those events causing loss or injury to people, property, or the environment. PRA also provides a method for estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and the consequences of each accident. The Los Alamos effort for this study is summarized as follows: The focus of the Los Alamos study was on evaluating the risks specifically associated with disassembling a Los Alamos-designed device. The PRA for the disassembly operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of a risk consequence goal for DOE operations. Often called a Level 3 PRA (or PSA), the methods are general and can with a little modification be applied to other procedures or processes.

  15. Results from a randomized trial of a web-based, tailored decision aid for women at high risk for breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Banegas, Matthew P.; McClure, Jennifer B.; Barlow, William E.; Ubel, Peter A.; Smith, Dylan M.; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J.; Greene, Sarah M.; Fagerlin, Angela

    2013-01-01

    Objective To assess the impact of Guide to Decide (GtD), a web-based, personally-tailored decision aid designed to inform women’s decisions about prophylactic tamoxifen and raloxifene use. Methods Postmenopausal women, age 46–74, with BCRAT 5-year risk ≥1.66% and no prior history of breast cancer were randomized to one of three study arms: intervention (n = 690), Time 1 control (n = 160), or 3-month control (n = 162). Intervention participants viewed GtD prior to completing a post-test and 3 month follow-up assessment. Controls did not. We assessed the impact of GtD on women’s decisional conflict levels and treatment decision behavior at post-test and at 3 months, respectively. Results Intervention participants had significantly lower decisional conflict levels at post-test (p < 0.001) and significantly higher odds of making a decision about whether or not to take prophylactic tamoxifen or raloxifene at 3-month follow-up (p < 0.001) compared to control participants. Conclusion GtD lowered decisional conflict and helped women at high risk of breast cancer decide whether to take prophylactic tamoxifen or raloxifene to reduce their cancer risk. Practice implications Web-based, tailored decision aids should be used more routinely to facilitate informed medical decisions, reduce patients’ decisional conflict, and empower patients to choose the treatment strategy that best reflects their own values. PMID:23395006

  16. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  17. Assessment of Alternative Student Aid Delivery Systems. The General Assessment Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Advanced Technology, Inc., Reston, VA.

    An evaluation model for the student aid delivery system is described, and extensive tables that make up the model are presented. The model can be used to evaluate the effects of specific activities and subsystems of the delivery system for major participants, as well as to estimate the likely effects of activity changes. A conceptual model for…

  18. 78 FR 36787 - Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-19

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia... the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug Development Without...

  19. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  20. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the