Henriksen, Lisa; Feighery, Ellen C.; Schleicher, Nina C.; Fortmann, Stephen P.
Purpose This longitudinal study examined the influence of alcohol advertising and promotions on the initiation of alcohol use. A measure of receptivity to alcohol marketing was developed from research about tobacco marketing. Recall and recognition of alcohol brand names were also examined. Methods Data were obtained from in-class surveys of 6th, 7th, and 8th graders at baseline and 12-month follow-up. Participants who were classified as never drinkers at baseline (n=1,080) comprised the analysis sample. Logistic regression models examined the association of advertising receptivity at baseline with any alcohol use and current drinking at follow-up, adjusting for multiple risk factors, including peer alcohol use, school performance, risk taking, and demographics. Results At baseline, 29% of never drinkers either owned or wanted to use an alcohol branded promotional item (high receptivity), 12% students named the brand of their favorite alcohol ad (moderate receptivity) and 59% were not receptive to alcohol marketing. Approximately 29% of adolescents reported any alcohol use at follow-up; 13% reported drinking at least 1 or 2 days in the past month. Never drinkers who reported high receptivity to alcohol marketing at baseline were 77% more likely to initiate drinking by follow-up than those were not receptive. Smaller increases in the odds of alcohol use at follow-up were associated with better recall and recognition of alcohol brand names at baseline. Conclusions Alcohol advertising and promotions are associated with the uptake of drinking. Prevention programs may reduce adolescents’ receptivity to alcohol marketing by limiting their exposure to alcohol ads and promotions and by increasing their skepticism about the sponsors’ marketing tactics. PMID:18155027
McClure, Auden C.; Tanski, Susanne E.; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Internet alcohol marketing is not well studied despite its prevalence and potential accessibility and attractiveness to youth. The objective was to examine longitudinal associations between self-reported engagement with Internet alcohol marketing and alcohol use transitions in youth. METHODS A US sample of 2012 youths aged 15 to 20 was surveyed in 2011. An Internet alcohol marketing receptivity score was developed, based on number of positive responses to seeing alcohol advertising on the Internet, visiting alcohol brand Web sites, being an online alcohol brand fan, and cued recall of alcohol brand home page images. We assessed the association between baseline marketing receptivity and both ever drinking and binge drinking (≥6 drinks per occasion) at 1-year follow-up with multiple logistic regression, controlling for baseline drinking status, Internet use, sociodemographics, personality characteristics, and peer or parent drinking. RESULTS At baseline, ever-drinking and binge-drinking prevalence was 55% and 27%, respectively. Many (59%) reported seeing Internet alcohol advertising, but few reported going to an alcohol Web site (6%) or being an online fan (3%). Higher Internet use, sensation seeking, having family or peers who drank, and past alcohol use were associated with Internet alcohol marketing receptivity, and a score of 1 or 2 was independently associated with greater adjusted odds of initiating binge drinking (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.13–2.78 and odds ratio 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–4.37 respectively) but not with initiation of ever drinking. CONCLUSIONS Although high levels of engagement with Internet alcohol marketing were uncommon, most underage youths reported seeing it, and we found a prospective association between receptivity to this type of alcohol marketing and future problem drinking, making additional research and ongoing surveillance important. PMID:26738886
de Sousa Fernandes Perna, Elizabeth B; Theunissen, Eef L; Kuypers, Kim P C; Evers, Elisabeth A; Stiers, Peter; Toennes, Stefan W; Witteman, Jurriaan; van Dalen, Wim; Ramaekers, Johannes G
Drugs of abuse stimulate striatal dopamine release and activate reward pathways. This study examined the impact of alcohol and cannabis marketing on the reward circuit in alcohol and cannabis users while sober and intoxicated. It was predicted that alcohol and cannabis marketing would increase striatal activation when sober and that reward sensitivity would be less during alcohol and cannabis intoxication. Heavy alcohol (n = 20) and regular cannabis users (n = 21) participated in a mixed factorial study involving administration of alcohol and placebo in the alcohol group and cannabis and placebo in the cannabis group. Non-drug users (n = 20) served as between group reference. Brain activation after exposure to alcohol and cannabis marketing movies was measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging and compared between groups while sober and compared with placebo while intoxicated. Implicit alcohol and cannabis cognitions were assessed by means of a single-category implicit association test. Alcohol and cannabis marketing significantly increased striatal BOLD activation across all groups while sober. Striatal activation however decreased during intoxication with alcohol and cannabis. Implicit associations with cannabis marketing cues were significantly more positive in alcohol and cannabis users as compared with non-drug using controls. Public advertising of alcohol or cannabis use elicits striatal activation in the brain's reward circuit. Reduction of marketing would reduce brain exposure to reward cues that motivate substance use. Conversely, elevated dopamine levels protect against the reinforcing potential of marketing.
Casswell, Sally; Maxwell, Anna
The marketing of alcohol produces a new challenge for policy development internationally, in part because of the increase in the use of new, unmeasured technologies. Many of these new developments are, as yet, relatively invisible in the policy arena. New approaches in branding, the utilization of marketing opportunities via branded events and new products provide additional complexity to attempts to monitor and to restrict the impact of marketing on young people and other vulnerable groups. Current attempts to restrict marketing globally, which rely primarily on voluntary codes and focus on traditional media, are inadequate to these challenges. A new statutory framework is required to enable the monitoring and control of the full marketing mix in ways which match the sophistication of the marketing efforts themselves.
Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Nordestgaard, Børge Grønne; Rasmussen, Søren; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne; Grønbaek, Morten
Alcohol drinking habits and alcoholism are partly genetically determined. Alcohol is degraded primarily by alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) wherein genetic variation that affects the rate of alcohol degradation is found in ADH1B and ADH1C. It is biologically plausible that these variations may be associated with alcohol drinking habits and alcoholism. By genotyping 9080 white men and women from the general population, we found that men and women with ADH1B slow vs fast alcohol degradation drank more alcohol and had a higher risk of everyday drinking, heavy drinking, excessive drinking and of alcoholism. For example, the weekly alcohol intake was 9.8 drinks (95% confidence interval (CI): 9.1-11) among men with the ADH1B.1/1 genotype compared to 7.5 drinks (95% CI: 6.4-8.7) among men with the ADH1B.1/2 genotype, and the odds ratio (OR) for heavy drinking was 3.1 (95% CI: 1.7-5.7) among men with the ADH1B.1/1 genotype compared to men with the ADH1B.1/2 genotype. Furthermore, individuals with ADH1C slow vs fast alcohol degradation had a higher risk of heavy and excessive drinking. For example, the OR for heavy drinking was 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1-1.8) among men with the ADH1C.1/2 genotype and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.0-1.9) among men with the ADH1B.2/2 genotype, compared with men with the ADH1C.1/1 genotype. Results for ADH1B and ADH1C genotypes among men and women were similar. Finally, because slow ADH1B alcohol degradation is found in more than 90% of the white population compared to less than 10% of East Asians, the population attributable risk of heavy drinking and alcoholism by ADH1B.1/1 genotype was 67 and 62% among the white population compared with 9 and 24% among the East Asian population.
Cervera-Juanes, Rita; Wilhem, Larry J.; Park, Byung; Lee, Richard; Locke, Jason; Helms, Christa; Gonzales, Steven; Wand, Gary; Jones, Sara R.; Grant, Kathleen A.; Ferguson, Betsy
The role of the monoamines dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) and the monoamine-metabolizing enzyme monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) have been repeatedly implicated in studies of alcohol use and dependence. Genetic investigations of MAOA have yielded conflicting associations between a common polymorphism (MAOA-LPR) and risk for alcohol abuse. The present study provides direct comparison of tissue-specific MAOA expression and the level of alcohol consumption. We analyzed rhesus macaque MAOA (rhMAOA) expression in blood from males before and after 12-months of alcohol self-administration. In addition, nucleus accumbens core (NAc core) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were collected from alcohol-access and control (no alcohol access) subjects at the 12-month time point for comparison. The rhMAOA expression level in the blood of alcohol-naïve subjects was negatively correlated with subsequent alcohol consumption level. The mRNA expression was independent of rhMAOA-LPR genotype and global promoter methylation. After 12 months of alcohol use, blood rhMAOA expression had decreased in an alcohol dose-dependent manner. Also after 12 months, rhMAOA expression in the NAc core was significantly lower in the heavy drinkers, as compared to control subjects. The CSF measured higher levels of DA and lower DOPAC/DA ratios amongst the heavy drinkers at the same time point. These results provide novel evidence that blood MAOA expression predicts alcohol consumption and that heavy alcohol use is linked to low MAOA expression in both the blood and NAc core. Together, the findings suggest a mechanistic link between dampened MAOA expression, elevated DA and alcohol abuse. PMID:26148813
Mosher, James F; Johnsson, Diane
Flavored alcoholic beverages (FABs) were first introduced into the alcohol market in the early I980s in the form of wine coolers. FABs are sweet, relatively low alcohol content beverages that are designed for "entry-level" drinkers. The alcohol industry has introduced new products and production methods to expand the category's popularity. Research suggests that they are popular with underage drinkers, particularly teenage girls, and that the industry uses marketing practices that appear to target youth. FABs are now marketed globally, and their production and marketing vary by country based on national regulatory restraints. In the United States, industry representations that the products are malt beverages for regulatory purposes appears to violate many state laws because the alcohol in the FABs is derived from distilled spirits. Recommendations for regulatory reform, including new legal definitions of FABs, increased taxes, and restrictions on availability, are applicable at both national and state levels.
Cranford, James A; Zucker, Robert A; Jester, Jennifer M; Puttler, Leon I; Fitzgerald, Hiram E
Current models of adolescent drinking behavior hypothesize that alcohol expectancies mediate the effects of other proximal and distal risk factors. This longitudinal study tested the hypothesis that the effects of parental alcohol involvement on their children's drinking behavior in mid-adolescence are mediated by the children's alcohol expectancies in early adolescence. A sample of 148 initially 9-11 year old boys and their parents from a high-risk population and a contrast group of community families completed measures of drinking behavior and alcohol expectancies over a 6-year interval. We analyzed data from middle childhood (M age = 10.4 years), early adolescence (M age = 13.5 years), and mid-adolescence (M age = 16.5 years). The sample was restricted only to adolescents who had begun to drink by mid-adolescence. Results from zero-inflated Poisson regression analyses showed that 1) maternal drinking during their children's middle childhood predicted number of drinking days in middle adolescence; 2) negative and positive alcohol expectancies in early adolescence predicted odds of any intoxication in middle adolescence; and 3) paternal alcoholism during their children's middle childhood and adolescents' alcohol expectancies in early adolescence predicted frequency of intoxication in middle adolescence. Contrary to predictions, child alcohol expectancies did not mediate the effects of parental alcohol involvement in this high-risk sample. Different aspects of parental alcohol involvement, along with early adolescent alcohol expectancies, independently predicted adolescent drinking behavior in middle adolescence. Alternative pathways for the influence of maternal and paternal alcohol involvement and implications for expectancy models of adolescent drinking behavior were discussed.
Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H
Alcohol is a risk factor for communicable and noncommunicable diseases, and alcohol consumption is rising steadily in India. The growth of multinational alcohol corporations, such as Diageo, contributes to India's changing alcohol environment. We provide a brief history of India's alcohol regulation for context and examine Diageo's strategies for expansion in India in 2013 and 2014. Diageo is attracted to India's younger generation, women, and emerging middle class for growth opportunities. Components of Diageo's responsibility strategy conflict with evidence-based public health recommendations for reducing harmful alcohol consumption. Diageo's strategies for achieving market dominance in India are at odds with public health evidence. We conclude with recommendations for protecting public health in emerging markets.
Munro, Geoffrey; de Wever, Johanna
It is of no coincidence that a number of recent Harm Reduction Digests have addressed the issue of the reduction of alcohol-related harm. Despite the dominant focus on illicit drug use in the popular discourse, alcohol remains Australia's number one drug problem, as it is in many other developed countries. In this Digest Munro and de Wever use the 'four Ps' of marketing: product, price, place and promotion, to critique the two decades industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing. They conclude that if we are going to develop policies which effectively change Australian drinking culture to reduce alcohol-related harm, we need first to accept that the alcohol industry and the health field have separate and conflicting interests.
McClure, Auden C.; Stoolmiller, Mike; Tanski, Susanne E.; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Sargent, James D.
Background Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation between alcohol marketing and problematic drinking among experimental underage drinkers. Methods This paper describes a cross-sectional analysis of 1734 U.S. 15–20 year old underage drinkers, recruited for a national study of media and substance use. Subjects were queried about a number of alcohol marketing variables including television time, internet time, favorite alcohol ad, ownership of alcohol branded merchandise (ABM), and exposure to alcohol brands in movies. The relation between these exposures and current (30 day) binge drinking was assessed, as were proposed mediators of this relation, including marketing-specific cognitions (drinker identity and favorite brand to drink), favorable alcohol expectancies and alcohol norms. Paths were tested in a structural equation model that controlled for socio-demographics, personality and peer drinking. Results Almost one-third of this sample of ever drinkers had engaged in 30 day binge drinking. Correlations among mediators were all statistically significant (range 0.16 – 0.47) and all were significantly associated with binge drinking. Statistically significant mediation was found for the association between ABM ownership and binge drinking through both drinker identity and having a favorite brand, which also mediated the path between movie brand exposure and binge drinking. Peer drinking and sensation seeking were associated with binge drinking in paths through all mediators. Conclusions Associations between alcohol marketing and binge drinking were mediated through marketing-specific cognitions that assess drinker identity and brand allegiance, cognitions that marketers aim to cultivate in the consumer. PMID:23256927
Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul
Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in . We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets .
Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros
A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the ‘regulatory pyramid’, alcohol being less regulated than tobacco. PMID:28118411
Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros
A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the 'regulatory pyramid', alcohol being less regulated than tobacco.
Defense AT&L: July–August 2015 40 Market Research Faster, Smarter and Predictive Kenyata Wesley n Farhad Chowdhury 41 Defense AT&L: July–August...Par-ticipation, Including Through More Effective Use of Market Research” Better Buying Power (BBP) 2.0 initiative, several ac- tions were completed to...support improving market research capa- bility within the Department of Defense (DoD). Although acquisition professionals perform market research
Production of alcohol from biomass feedstocks, such as corn, was given Federal and State support which resulted in alcohol production rising from 20 million gallons in 1979 to 430 million gallons in 1984. This study estimates the impacts of alcohol production from corn on selected agricultural markets. The tool of analysis was a three region (United States, the European Community and the rest of the world) econometric model of the markets for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat and corn byproduct feeds. Three alternative growth paths for alcohol production (totalling 1.1, 2.0, and 3.0 billion gallons) were analyzed with the model in the context of three different trade environments. The results of this analysis indicate that alcohol production of 1.1 billion gallons by 1980 would have caused moderate adjustments to commodity markets while 3.0 billion gallons would have caused major adjustments. Corn prices rose sharply with increased alcohol production as did wheat prices but to a somewhat lesser extent. The substitution of corn for soybeans on the supply side was not sufficient to offset the demand depressing effects of corn byproduct feeds on soybean meal which translated into slightly lower soybean prices. A quota limiting imports of corn gluten feed into the EC to three million tons annually would cause reductions in export earnings for corn millers.
Almenberg, Johan; Kittlitz, Ken; Pfeiffer, Thomas
Prediction markets are powerful forecasting tools. They have the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to provide incentives for information acquisition. These market functionalities can be very valuable for scientific research. Here, we report an experiment that examines the compatibility of prediction markets with the current practice of scientific publication. We investigated three settings. In the first setting, different pieces of information were disclosed to the public during the experiment. In the second setting, participants received private information. In the third setting, each piece of information was private at first, but was subsequently disclosed to the public. An automated, subsidizing market maker provided additional incentives for trading and mitigated liquidity problems. We find that the third setting combines the advantages of the first and second settings. Market performance was as good as in the setting with public information, and better than in the setting with private information. In contrast to the first setting, participants could benefit from information advantages. Thus the publication of information does not detract from the functionality of prediction markets. We conclude that for integrating prediction markets into the practice of scientific research it is of advantage to use subsidizing market makers, and to keep markets aligned with current publication practice. PMID:20041139
Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes
Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442
Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok
A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.
Yu, Bei; Chen, Miao; Kwok, Linchi
Popularity of social marketing messages indicates the effectiveness of the corresponding marketing strategies. This research aims to discover the characteristics of social marketing messages that contribute to different level of popularity. Using messages posted by a sample of restaurants on Facebook as a case study, we measured the message popularity by the number of "likes" voted by fans, and examined the relationship between the message popularity and two properties of the messages: (1) content, and (2) media type. Combining a number of text mining and statistics methods, we have discovered some interesting patterns correlated to "more popular" and "less popular" social marketing messages. This work lays foundation for building computational models to predict the popularity of social marketing messages in the future.
Kheokao, Jantima K; Kirkgulthorn, Tassanee; Yingrengreung, Siritorn; Singhprapai, Phuwasith
This study explored effects of family, school, and marketing communications on alcohol use and intention to drink of Thai students. We conducted a survey in which 5,184 students participated. Respondents were selected randomly from school districts throughout Thailand. In this survey we measured the exposure to, reception of, and perceptions concerning alcohol marketing communication, school absenteeism and achievement, family alcohol use, students' alcohol use, and drinking intentions. Findings indicated students' low alcohol use, moderate intention to drink, and high prevalence of family drinking. The levels of exposure and also the information receptivity to alcohol media marketing of Thai students were low. The respondents had a high level of media literacy on alcohol marketing communication. Multiple regression and focus group discussions provided support for the contention that there were significant effects of school achievement, absenteeism and media marketing communication on alcohol use (R2 = 14%) and intention to drink (R2 = 11%). Therefore, consideration of relevant school and alcohol policies, including monitoring of media marketing communication, will be needed.
Böckerman, Petri; Hyytinen, Ari; Maczulskij, Terhi
This paper examines whether alcohol consumption is related to long-term labor market outcomes. We use twin data for Finnish men and women matched to register-based individual information on employment and earnings. The twin data allow us to account for the shared environmental and genetic factors. The quantity of alcohol consumption was measured by weekly average consumption using self-reported data from three surveys (1975, 1981 and 1990). The average of an individual's employment months and earnings were measured in adulthood over the period 1990-2009. The models that account for the shared environmental and genetic factors reveal that former drinkers and heavy drinkers both have almost 20% lower earnings compared with moderate drinkers. On average, former drinkers work annually approx. 1 month less over the 20-year observation period. These associations are robust to the use of covariates, such as education, pre-existing health endowment and smoking. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Cooke, Emma; Hastings, Gerard; Wheeler, Colin; Eadie, Douglas; Moskalewicz, Jacek; Dabrowska, Katarzyna
This paper takes an international perspective on the marketing of alcohol to young people by examining case studies of the marketing of alcohol in the UK and Poland. It is suggested that marketing is a powerful mechanism for attracting young consumers. The alcohol industry is an innovative industry able to use a wide variety of marketing tools to achieve success in the market-place. It is important to recognise that the marketing activities of the industry are becoming increasingly transnational and that policy response has to be equally transnational.
Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi
OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users. PMID:25591103
George, William H.; Marlatt, G. Alan
Although research has examined the content of alcohol-outcome expectancies and also the role of alcohol use in aggressive and sexual behaviors, few studies have linked the two lines of inquiry. To examine the efficacy of outcome expectancies for predicting actual behavior, 64 male social drinkers, aged 21 to 25 years, completed questionnaires and,…
Cloninger, C R; Sigvardsson, S; Bohman, M
431 children (233 boys, 198 girls) born in Stockholm, Sweden, had a detailed behavioral assessment at 11 years of age, including a detailed interview with their school teachers, and at age 27 years were reevaluated to identify alcoholism or alcohol abuse. Specific predictions from a neurobiological learning theory about the role of heritable personality traits in susceptibility to alcohol abuse were tested in this prospective longitudinal study. Three dimensions of childhood personality variation were identified and rated without knowledge of adult outcome. These three dimensions (novelty-seeking, harm avoidance, and reward dependence) were largely uncorrelated with one another, and each was predictive of later alcohol abuse. Absolute deviations from the mean of each of the three personality dimensions were associated with an exponential increase in the risk of later alcohol abuse. High novelty-seeking and low harm avoidance were most strongly predictive of early-onset alcohol abuse. These two childhood variables alone distinguished boys who had nearly 20-fold differences in their risk of alcohol abuse: the risk of alcohol abuse varied from 4 to 75% depending on childhood personality.
Alcohol dependence is characterized by conflict between approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol that operate in automatic and controlled processes. This article describes the first study to investigate the predictive validity of these motivational orientations for relapse to drinking after discharge from alcohol detoxification treatment in alcohol-dependent patients. One hundred twenty alcohol-dependent patients who were nearing the end of inpatient detoxification treatment completed measures of self-reported (Approach and Avoidance of Alcohol Questionnaire; AAAQ) and automatic (modified Stimulus-Response Compatibility task) approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol. Their drinking behavior was assessed via telephone follow-ups at 2, 4, and 6 months after discharge from treatment. Results indicated that, after controlling for the severity of alcohol dependence, strong automatic avoidance tendencies for alcohol cues were predictive of higher percentage of heavy drinking days (PHDD) at 4-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.07, 0.43]) and 6-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.01, 0.42]) follow-ups. We failed to replicate previous demonstrations of the predictive validity of approach subscales of the AAAQ for relapse to drinking, and there were no significant predictors of PHDD at 2-month follow-up. In conclusion, strong automatic avoidance tendencies predicted relapse to drinking after inpatient detoxification treatment, but automatic approach tendencies and self-reported approach and avoidance tendencies were not predictive in this study. Our results extend previous findings and help to resolve ambiguities with earlier studies that investigated the roles of automatic and controlled cognitive processes in recovery from alcohol dependence. PMID:27935726
Jernigan, David H; Rushman, Anne E
Youth exposure to alcohol marketing has been linked to increased alcohol consumption and problems. On relatively new and highly interactive social networking sites (SNS) that are popular with youth, tools for measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing in traditional media are inadequate. We critically review the existing policies of Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube designed to keep branded alcohol content away from underage youth. Looking at brand and user activity on Facebook for the 15 alcohol brands most popular among US youth, we found activity has grown dramatically in the past 3 years, and underage users may be accounting for some of this activity. Surveys of youth and adult participation in alcohol marketing on SNS will be needed to inform debate over these marketing practices.
Munafo, Marcus R.; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Altmejd, Adam; Heikensten, Emma; Almenberg, Johan; Bird, Alexander; Chen, Yiling; Wilson, Brad; Johannesson, Magnus; Dreber, Anna
The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the ‘wisdom of crowds’, and enable individuals to trade ‘bets’ on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014. PMID:26587243
Jernigan, David H
The experiences of the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth from 2002 to 2008 in re-framing a major public health issue and influencing public policy offer lessons for other public health movements. The Center pioneered new ways to use commercial market research data in public health surveillance and public debate. Combining a steady stream of reports and peer-reviewed articles with state and federal organizing and media advocacy, the Center re-framed a policy debate over alcohol marketing and youth, enabling measurable progress.
Objectives. We investigated tobacco companies’ knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. Methods. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Conclusions. Tobacco companies’ numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use. PMID:21852637
Cowgill, Bo; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric
Since 2005, Google has conducted the largest corporate experiment with prediction markets we are aware of. In this paper, we illustrate how markets can be used to study how an organization processes information. We show that market participants are not typical of Google’s workforce, and that market participation and success is skewed towards Google’s engineering and quantitatively oriented employees.
Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefer, F; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B
We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value single-nucleotide length polymorphisms (SNPs) in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) were used to generate a Genetic Risk Prediction Score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating alcohol-dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress
Marczinski, Cecile A; Hertzenberg, Heather; Goddard, Perilou; Maloney, Sarah F; Stamates, Amy L; O'Connor, Kathleen
The purpose of this study was to determine if a brief 10-item alcohol-related Facebook® activity (ARFA) questionnaire would predict alcohol use patterns in college students (N = 146). During a single laboratory session, participants first privately logged on to their Facebook® profiles while they completed the ARFA measure, which queries past 30 day postings related to alcohol use and intoxication. Participants were then asked to complete five additional questionnaires: three measures of alcohol use (the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT], the Timeline Follow-Back [TLFB], and the Personal Drinking Habits Questionnaire [PDHQ]), the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC-SDS). Regression analyses revealed that total ARFA scores were significant predictors of recent drinking behaviors, as assessed by the AUDIT, TLFB, and PDHQ measures. Moreover, impulsivity (BIS-11) and social desirability (MC-SDS) did not predict recent drinking behaviors when ARFA total scores were included in the regressions. The findings suggest that social media activity measured via the ARFA scale may be useful as a research tool for identifying risky alcohol use.
Marczinski, Cecile A.; Hertzenberg, Heather; Goddard, Perilou; Maloney, Sarah F.; Stamates, Amy L.; O’Connor, Kathleen
The purpose of this study was to determine if a brief 10-item alcohol-related Facebook® activity (ARFA) questionnaire would predict alcohol use patterns in college students (N = 146). During a single laboratory session, participants first privately logged on to their Facebook® profiles while they completed the ARFA measure, which queries past 30 day postings related to alcohol use and intoxication. Participants were then asked to complete five additional questionnaires: three measures of alcohol use (the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT], the Timeline Follow-Back [TLFB], and the Personal Drinking Habits Questionnaire [PDHQ]), the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC-SDS). Regression analyses revealed that total ARFA scores were significant predictors of recent drinking behaviors, as assessed by the AUDIT, TLFB, and PDHQ measures. Moreover, impulsivity (BIS-11) and social desirability (MC-SDS) did not predict recent drinking behaviors when ARFA total scores were included in the regressions. The findings suggest that social media activity measured via the ARFA scale may be useful as a research tool for identifying risky alcohol use. PMID:28138317
Mart, Sarah M
Marketing and advertising for alcoholic beverages is abundant throughout the United States and the rest of the world. Despite the fact that alcohol advertising is related to earlier initiation of drinking, higher rates of consumption, and positive expectancies among youth populations, alcohol companies continue to design new products and related campaigns with youth-friendly attributes. Alcopops and caffeinated alcoholic beverages are two particularly dangerous types of products, and new social networking technologies make direct promotion easy and voluminous. In order to stop the harm from these alcohol products and promotion, advocacy from the research community is imperative.
Oberle, Crystal D.; Garcia, Javier A.
This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that…
Background Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. Method A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Results Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Conclusion Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or
Austin, Erica Weintraub; Muldrow, Adrienne; Austin, Bruce W
To examine the potential effectiveness of media literacy education in the context of well-established personality factors, a survey of 472 young adults, focused on the issue of alcohol marketing messages, examined how individual differences in personality associate with constructs representing aspects of media literacy. The results showed that need for cognition predicted social expectancies and wishful identification with media portrayals in alcohol advertising only through critical thinking about media sources and media content, which are foci of media literacy education. Need for affect did not associate with increased or diminished levels of critical thinking. Critical thinking about sources and messages affected skepticism, represented by expectancies through wishful identification, consistent with the message interpretation process model. The results support the view that critical thinking about media sources is an important precursor to critical thinking about media messages. The results also suggest that critical thinking about media (i.e., media literacy) reflects more than personality characteristics and can affect wishful identification with role models observed in media, which appears to be a key influence on decision making. This adds support to the view that media literacy education can improve decision making across personality types regarding alcohol use by decreasing the potential influence of alcohol marketing messages.
Ellis, Cali Mortenson; Sami, Rahul
Prediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class…
Roek, Marion A E; Spijkerman, Renske; Poelen, Evelien A P; Lemmers, Lex; Engels, Rutger C M E
Attitudes toward alternative behaviors, such as drinking soda instead of alcohol, might contribute to the prediction of young people's drinking behavior. The current study explored the associations between late adolescents' and young adults' attitudes toward alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks and their alcohol consumption, and whether these associations were moderated by participants' sex, age and education level. Cross-sectional data were collected among 1012 15 to 25-year-olds. Participants completed an online questionnaire on attitudes toward alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks, binge drinking and monthly alcohol consumption. Data were analyzed by employing structural equation modeling in Mplus. After controlling for the shared variance in both attitudes, attitudes toward alcoholic drinks were positively related and attitudes toward non-alcoholic drinks were negatively related to participants' monthly alcohol use and binge drinking. Relations between attitudes towards alcoholic drinks and monthly alcohol consumption were stronger for boys than for girls and stronger for participants with intermediate education background. Relations between both attitudes and binge drinking were strongest for high educated participants. According to our data, non-alcohol attitudes provide a unique contribution to the prediction of alcohol use.
McCreanor, Tim; Barnes, Helen Moewaka; Kaiwai, Hector; Borell, Suaree; Gregory, Amanda
Alcohol consumption among young people in New Zealand is on the rise. Given the broad array of acute and chronic harms that arise from this trend, it is a major cause for alarm and it is imperative that we improve our knowledge of key drivers of youth drinking. Changes wrought by the neoliberal political climate of deregulation that characterised the last two decades in many countries including Aotearoa (Aotearoa is a Maori name for New Zealand) New Zealand have transformed the availability of alcohol to young people. Commercial development of youth alcohol markets has seen the emergence of new environments, cultures and practices around drinking and intoxication but the ways in which these changes are interpreted and taken up are not well understood. This paper reports findings from a qualitative research project investigating the meaning-making practices of young people in New Zealand in response to alcohol marketing. Research data included group interviews with a range of Maori and Pakeha young people at three time periods. Thematic analyses of the youth data on usages of marketing materials indicate naturalisation of tropes of alcohol intoxication. We show how marketing is used and enjoyed in youth discourses creating and maintaining what we refer to as intoxigenic social environments. The implications are considered in light of the growing exposure of young people to alcohol marketing in a discussion of strategies to manage and mitigate its impacts on behaviour and consumption.
Wardell, Jeffrey D.; Read, Jennifer P.; Curtin, John J.; Merrill, Jennifer E.
Background Implicit positive alcohol expectancy (PAEs) processes are thought to respond phasically to external and internal stimuli – including mood states – and so they may exert powerful proximal influences over drinking behavior. Although social learning theory contends that mood states activate mood-congruent implicit PAEs, which in turn lead to alcohol use, there is a dearth of experimental research examining this mediation model relative to observable drinking. Moreover, an expectancy theory perspective might suggest that, rather than influencing PAEs directly, mood may moderate the association between PAEs and drinking. To test these models, the present study examined the role of mood in the association between implicitly measured PAE processes (i.e., latency to endorse PAEs) and immediate alcohol consumption in the laboratory. Gender differences in these processes also were examined. Method College students (N=146) were exposed to either a positive, negative, or neutral mood induction procedure, completed a computerized PAE reaction time (RT) task, and subsequently consumed alcohol ad libitum. Results The mood manipulation had no direct effects on drinking in the lab, making the mediation hypothesis irrelevant. Instead, gender and mood condition moderated the association between RT to endorse PAEs and drinking in the lab. For males, RT to tension reduction PAEs was a stronger predictor of volume of beer consumed and peak BAC in the context of general arousal (i.e., positive and negative mood) relative to neutral mood. RT to PAEs did not predict drinking in the lab for females. Conclusions The results show that PAE processes are important determinants of immediate drinking behavior in men, suggesting that biased attention to mood-relevant PAEs – as indicated by longer RTs – predicts greater alcohol consumption in the appropriate mood context. The findings also highlight the need to consider gender differences in PAE processes. This study underscores
Excessive alcohol consumption accounted for an estimated 4,700 deaths and 280,000 years of potential life lost among youths aged <21 years each year during 2001-2005. Exposure to alcohol marketing increases the likelihood to varying degrees that youths will initiate drinking and drink at higher levels. By 2003, the alcohol industry voluntarily agreed not to advertise on television programs where >30% of the audience is reasonably expected to be aged <21 years. However, the National Research Council/Institute of Medicine (NRC/IOM) proposed in 2003 that "the industry standard should move toward a 15% threshold for television advertising". Because local media markets might have different age distributions, the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, evaluated the proportion of advertisements that appeared on television programs in 25 local television markets* and resulting youth exposure that exceeded the industry standard (i.e., >30% aged 2-20 years) or the proposed NRC/IOM standard (i.e., >15% aged 12-20 years). Among national television programs with alcohol advertising, placements were assessed for the 10 programs with the largest number of youth viewers within each of four program categories: network sports, network nonsports, cable sports, and cable nonsports (40 total). Of the 196,494 alcohol advertisements that aired on television programs with the largest number of youth viewers in these local markets, placement of 23.7% exceeded the industry threshold and 35.4% exceeded the NRC/IOM threshold. These results indicate that the alcohol industry's self-regulation of its advertising could be improved, and youth exposure to alcohol advertising could be further reduced by adopting and complying with the NRC/IOM standard. In addition, continued public health surveillance would allow for sustained assessment of youth exposure to alcohol advertising and inform future interventions.
Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B.
Abstract Aim To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Methods Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990–2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second‐reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Results Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self‐regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non‐regulatory initiatives. Conclusions The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. PMID:26173765
Nuttall, Ronald L.; Nuttall, Ena Vazquez
Using 1968 data collected from junior and senior high school students in Bayamon, Puerto Rico, substance usage patterns for heroin and alcohol were predicted for 1975-6. A sample of 1,000 of the initial 5,000 students were selected for re-interview; half were selected to be at high risk of substance abuse and half were selected randomly. Some 657…
Polgreen, Philip M; Nelson, Forrest D; Neumann, George R
Prediction markets have accurately forecasted the outcomes of a wide range of future events, including sales of computer printers, elections, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates. We propose that prediction markets may be useful for tracking and forecasting emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza, by aggregating expert opinion quickly, accurately, and inexpensively. Data from a pilot study in the state of Iowa suggest that these markets can accurately predict statewide seasonal influenza activity 2-4 weeks in advance by using clinical data volunteered from participating health care workers. Information revealed by prediction markets may help to inform treatment, prevention, and policy decisions. Also, these markets could help to refine existing surveillance systems.
Jackson, M C; Hastings, G; Wheeler, C; Eadie, D; Mackintosh, A M
This paper focuses on the marketing of alcohol to young people in the United Kingdom, but the lessons that emerge have international significance. Alcohol is a global enterprise and recent consolidation means that it is controlled by a decreasing number of expanding multi-nationals. Alcohol companies are able to allocate significant resources to researching consumer preferences, developing new products and promoting them on an international level. Recent years have seen a growth in the value that youth culture attaches to brand labels and symbols and a move away from the healthy-living ethos. The alcohol industry's response to these trends has been to design alcoholic beverages that appeal to young people, using well-informed and precisely targeted marketing strategies. This has led to growing concerns about the implications for public health and a demand for tighter controls to regulate alcohol marketing practices. In the United Kingdom, controls on alcohol are piecemeal and reactive and the current system of voluntary regulation appears ineffective. This paper argues for more research to establish current industry practice and inform the development of a comprehensive regulatory structure and system of monitoring.
Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping
Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.
Alcohol consumption is the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States, accounting for approximately 100,000 deaths annually. Efforts to reduce the adverse health and social consequences from alcohol use include policies to restrict access to alcohol among underaged persons (i.e., persons aged <21 years) and to reduce alcohol-impaired driving among persons of all ages. Recent studies have focused on alcohol marketing as a potentially important contributor to alcohol consumption, particularly among underage drinkers. Point-of-purchase (POP) (i.e., on-site) marketing, including alcohol advertising and placement, can increase alcohol sales and consumption substantially, thereby increasing the risk for various alcohol-related health outcomes, including alcohol-impaired driving and interpersonal violence. To assess the type and frequency of POP alcohol marketing, researchers with the ImpacTeen Project collected and analyzed store observation data during 2000-2001 from 3,961 alcohol retailers in 329 communities throughout the United States. This report summarizes the results of the study, which indicate that POP alcohol marketing is extensive in certain store types frequented by teenagers and young adults. Public health agencies and policy makers should work with liquor control boards to reduce POP marketing that could promote risky or underage drinking.
Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing
Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.
Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing
Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816
Oberle, Crystal D; Garcia, Javier A
This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that listening to conventional music (pop, country, and religious genres) was negatively correlated with cigarette smoking (p=.001) and marijuana use (p<.001). Additionally, listening to energetic music (rap or hip-hop and soul or funk genres) was positively correlated with marijuana use (p=.004). The only significant predictor of alcohol use was country music, with which it was positively correlated (p=.04). This research suggests an especially harmful influence of energetic music on marijuana use.
Eom, Cheoljun; Choi, Sunghoon; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung
We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.
Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus
Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988
Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus
Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.
Gilbertson, Troy A
This randomized experiment examines the effects of contextual information on undergraduate college student's levels of alcohol-related incident guardianship at college parties. The research is conceptualized using routine activities theory and the theory of planned behavior. The experiment examines attitudinal variations about heavy drinking differentiated by sex, athletic status, and location of the drinking event. The sex and athletic status variables produce statistically effects on the dependent variables, while location of the drinking event is not significant. The article concludes by discussing the importance of context as it pertains to the social norms marketing strategy utilized in much college alcohol programming, and suggests a more directed marketing approach.
Jones, Sandra C; Thom, Jeffrey A; Davoren, Sondra; Barrie, Lance
We review programs and policies to prevent children from accessing alcohol marketing online. To update the literature, we present our recent studies that assess (i) in-built barriers to underage access to alcohol brand websites and (ii) commercial internet filters. Alcohol websites typically had poor filter systems for preventing entry of underage persons; only half of the sites required the user to provide a date of birth, and none had any means of preventing users from trying again. Even the most effective commercial internet filters allowed access to one-third of the sites we examined.
Moylan, Cynthia A; Suzuki, Ayako; Papay, Julie I; Yuen, Nancy A; Ames, Michael; Hunt, Christine M
Drug induced liver injury during drug development is evidenced by a higher incidence of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevations in treated versus placebo populations and termed an "ALT signal". We sought to quantify whether an ALT signal in pre-marketing clinical trials predicted post-marketing hepatotoxicity. Incidence of ALT elevations (ALT ≥ 3 times upper limits normal [× ULN]) for drug and placebo of new chemical entities and approved drugs associated with hepatotoxicity was calculated using the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website. Post-marketing liver safety events were identified using the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS). The association of FDA AERS signal score (EB05 ≥ 2) and excess risk of pre-marketing ALT elevation (difference in incidence of ALT ≥ 3× ULN in treated versus placebo) was examined. An ALT signal of ≥ 1.2% was significantly associated with a post-marketing liver safety signal (p ≤ 0.013) and a 71.4% positive predictive value. An absent ALT signal was associated with a high likelihood of post-marketing liver safety; negative predictive value of 89.7%. Daily drug dose information improved the prediction of post-marketing liver safety. A cut-off of 1.2% increase in ALT ≥ 3× ULN in treated versus placebo groups provides an easily calculated method for predicting post-marketing liver safety.
Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason
Background: According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. Methods: A sample of 371 year 10 students…
Hastings, Gerard; Anderson, Susan; Cooke, Emma; Gordon, Ross
The influence of alcohol advertising on young people continues to be the subject of much debate. This paper presents a review of the literature showing that, while many econometric studies suggest little effect, more focused consumer studies, especially recent ones with sophisticated designs, do show clear links between advertising and behaviour. Furthermore, these effects have to be viewed in combination with the possible impact of other marketing activities such as price promotions, distribution, point of sale activity and new product development. Here, the evidence base is less well developed, but there are indications of effects. It must be acknowledged that categorical statements of cause and effect are always difficult in the social sciences; marketing is a complex phenomenon involving the active participation of consumers as well as marketers and more research is needed on its cumulative impact. Nonetheless, the literature presents an increasingly compelling picture that alcohol marketing is having an effect on young people's drinking.
Serrano Iglesias, María; de Lourdes Samaniego Vaesken, María; Varela Moreiras, Gregorio
The aim of this study was to draw an updated map of the nutrition facts in the different categories of non-alcoholic beverages in the Spanish market based on the information declared on the labels of these products; we expect this first step to justify the need for the coordination and harmonization of food composition tables in Spain so that there will be an updated database available to produce realistic scientific nutrient intake estimates in accordance with the actual market scenario.
Swahn, Monica H; Ali, Bina; Palmier, Jane B; Sikazwe, George; Mayeya, John
This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Zambia (2004) of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (N = 2257). Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09-2.02) and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06-1.87) among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.
Pemberton, Robert W; Liu, Hong
Horticulture is an important source of naturalized plants, but our knowledge about naturalization frequencies and potential patterns of naturalization in horticultural plants is limited. We analyzed a unique set of data derived from the detailed sales catalogs (1887-1930) of the most important early Florida, USA, plant nursery (Royal Palm Nursery) to detect naturalization patterns of these horticultural plants in the state. Of the 1903 nonnative species sold by the nursery, 15% naturalized. The probability of plants becoming naturalized increases significantly with the number of years the plants were marketed. Plants that became invasive and naturalized were sold for an average of 19.6 and 14.8 years, respectively, compared to 6.8 years for non-naturalized plants, and the naturalization of plants sold for 30 years or more is 70%. Unexpectedly, plants that were sold earlier were less likely to naturalize than those sold later. The nursery's inexperience, which caused them to grow and market many plants unsuited to Florida during their early period, may account for this pattern. Plants with pantropical distributions and those native to both Africa and Asia were more likely to naturalize (42%), than were plants native to other smaller regions, suggesting that plants with large native ranges were more likely to naturalize. Naturalization percentages also differed according to plant life form, with the most naturalization occurring in aquatic herbs (36.8%) and vines (30.8%). Plants belonging to the families Araceae, Apocynaceae, Convolvulaceae, Moraceae, Oleaceae, and Verbenaceae had higher than expected naturalization. Information theoretic model selection indicated that the number of years a plant was sold, alone or together with the first year a plant was sold, was the strongest predictor of naturalization. Because continued importation and marketing of nonnative horticultural plants will lead to additional plant naturalization and invasion, a comprehensive approach
Marowitz, L A
This study examined the relationship between blood alcohol concentration (BAC) at arrest, driving history and other demographic factors, and the 1-year post-arrest probability of recidivism for drunk driving (DUI) convictees. Complex and simple prediction models were developed. All models found a statistically significant cubic relationship between BAC and recidivism, reflecting a relatively high rate of recidivism at a BAC of 0.00%, decreasing to a minimum at ca 0.09% BAC, then increasing to another relatively high rate at a BAC of ca 0.29%, followed by a decline in recidivism to BAC levels of 0.35% and beyond. High rates of recidivism at high BACs suggest alcohol dependency, while high rates at low BACs suggest the involvement of other impairing substances. The rate of DUI recidivism for offenders who refused alcohol testing was the same as for aggregated BAC-tested offenders who had prior DUIs at the time of the arrest. The probability of DUI recidivism predicted by a simple model using BAC, prior 2-year traffic convictions, and offender level (first or repeat offender) could be used along with other factors by presentence investigators, judges or in administrative settings to determine appropriate sanctions, treatment or other remedial measures. The findings support the notion that first offenders with high BAC levels and prior 2-year traffic convictions are at as high a risk of recidivating as many repeat offenders, and might therefore benefit from similar sanctions and/or remedial treatment. The findings also support viewing DUI arrestees with very low BACs as probable drug users with relatively high probabilities of recidivating.
This document sets out one segment of a comprehensive approach intended to assist institutions of higher education in developing and carrying out alcohol abuse and other drug prevention programs. Social marketing is described as a tool of environmental management, that seeks to produce a specified behavior in a target audience. Intended for a…
Sussman, Steve; And Others
Recent research suggests that alcoholic inpatients' performance on neuropsychological tests is predictive of their drinking status following discharge from alcohol rehabilitation programs, although no single test itself has been predictive of relapse. This study seeks to develop a ecologically relevant memory test that would predict relapse and…
Del Castillo Rodríguez, José A. García; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Soler, M. Carmen Quiles; Del Castillo-López, Álvaro García; Pertusa, Mónica Gázquez; Campos, Juan Carlos Marzo; Inglés, Cándido J.
Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people' attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The…
Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo
Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.
Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo
Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance. PMID:26926235
Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen
Aim To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9–17. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Results Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Conclusion Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. PMID:27864186
Winpenny, Eleanor M.; Marteau, Theresa M.; Nolte, Ellen
Aims: In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. Methods: We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6–14 years; 15–24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Results: Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15–24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. Conclusion: The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation. PMID:24293506
Smith, Gabie; Klein, Sarah
Numerous studies have examined risk factors that are associated with heavy alcohol use; however, much of this research has not addressed factors that specifically relate to women's alcohol use. The current study has extended the previous literature on women's alcohol-use behavior by examining factors associated with risky drinking in young women traveling abroad (n = 55). Using a pretest-posttest design, we examined the influence of disinhibition sensation-seeking and endorsement of social enhancement alcohol expectancies in relation to participation in risky alcohol use while abroad for three weeks. Analyses confirmed that disinhibition sensation-seeking and social enhancement alcohol expectancies were associated with participation in risky alcohol-use behaviors while abroad (controlling for alcohol-use at the pretest). Analysis of qualitative data reinforced the importance of social facilitation in women's alcohol risk-taking. Participants' qualitative data also emphasized characteristics of situational disinhibition relating to travel as well as culturally-specific motivations for alcohol-use behaviors. Further research examining women's personal need for disinhibition and the role of situational disinhibition in motivating alcohol risk-taking is warranted. In addition, the current findings suggest that interventions focusing on the connections between alcohol use and enhancement of social relationships and the potential isolating effects of non-use are necessary.
Jones, M A; Self, D R; Owens, C A; Kline, T A
This article is an overview of the promotion function as a part of the ATM's marketing mix. It approaches various promotion decision areas from a managerial perspective, focusing upon some key components of promotion planning. Rather than provide specific operational or implementation details (how to write a brochure) it is more conceptual in nature and offers a framework for promotion planners. The article addresses promotion management, promotion objectives, analysis for promotion planning, the promotion mix, and addresses the benefits and limitations of some specific promotion tools available to the ATM manager. It treats ATMs as a service and reveals specific implications for promotion strategy dictated by services. The article also reports promotion tools employed by Alabama ATMs citing data from the Alabama study.
Baldovin, Fulvio; Camana, Francesco; Caraglio, Michele; Stella, Attilio L.; Zamparo, Marco
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been shown to be common to most financial assets, both at high and low frequency. Its present-day description relies on an empirical characterization proposed by Omori at the end of 1800 for seismic earthquakes. We point out the limited predictive power in this phenomenological approach and present a stochastic model, based on the scaling symmetry of financial assets, which is potentially capable to predict aftershocks occurrence, given the main shock magnitude. Comparisons with S&P high-frequency data confirm this predictive potential.
Stanley, Linda R.; Miller, Kimberly A.; Beauvais, Fred; Walker, Patricia Silk; Walker, R. Dale
This study examines predictors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) among an urban American Indian cohort who were followed from approximately age 11 to age 20. Approximately 27% of the sample had a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol abuse or dependence. The results indicated that externalizing, but not internalizing, behaviors, family conflict, and school…
García del Castillo Rodríguez, José A; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Quiles Soler, M Carmen; García del Castillo-López, Alvaro; Gázquez Pertusa, Mónica; Marzo Campos, Juan Carlos; Inglés, Candido J
Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people's attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The questionnaire used obtained information on participants' alcohol use, attitudes and personal values. The results show that the attitudes model correctly classifies 76.3% of cases. Likewise, the model for level of alcohol use correctly classifies 82% of cases. According to our results, we can conclude that there are a series of individual values that influence drinking and attitudes to alcohol use, which therefore provides us with a potentially powerful instrument for developing preventive intervention programs.
Wargelius, Hanna-Linn; Fahlke, Claudia; Suomi, Stephen J; Oreland, Lars; Higley, James Dee
Platelet monoamine oxidase B (MAO-B) has been proposed to be a biological marker for the properties of monoamine systems, with low activity being associated with vulnerability for high scores on personality traits such as sensation seeking, monotony avoidance, and impulsiveness, as well as for vulnerability for alcoholism. In the present study, platelet MAO-B activity was analysed in 78 rhesus macaques, and its relation to voluntary alcohol intake and behaviours after intravenous alcohol administration was observed. Monkeys with low platelet MAO-B activity had low levels of 5-hydroxyindole acetic acid in cerebrospinal fluid and showed excessive aggression after alcohol administration. A novel finding was that animals with low platelet MAO-B activity showed less intoxication following alcohol administration. As we have shown previously, they also voluntarily consumed more alcohol. We here replicate results from studies on both humans and non-human primates, showing the utility of platelet MAO as a marker for risk behaviours and alcohol abuse. Furthermore, we link platelet MAO activity to alcohol sensitivity.
... that's how many accidents occur. continue What Is Alcoholism? What can be confusing about alcohol is that ... develop a problem with it. Sometimes, that's called alcoholism (say: al-kuh-HOL - ism) or being an ...
If you are like many Americans, you drink alcohol at least occasionally. For many people, moderate drinking ... risky. Heavy drinking can lead to alcoholism and alcohol abuse, as well as injuries, liver disease, heart ...
Moore, D J; Williams, J D; Qualls, W J
This paper examines whether increased consumption of tobacco and alcohol products by minority groups is a function of the target marketing campaigns directed at these groups by marketers, and whether such contributes to the perpetuation of racism. First, a description of the tobacco and alcohol consumption rates of blacks and Hispanics compared to whites is presented, including a comparative analysis of the health effects and mortality rates resulting from the consumption of tobacco and alcohol. Second, the paper examines specific marketing strategies of targeting tobacco and alcohol products to ethnic minority consumers. This is followed by a discussion of whether these practices are a deliberate strategy driven by racism or just the pursuit of profit. A framework for answering the question is provided. Finally, the paper assesses the prospects for change in the future, and analyzes specific needs for future research.
Meyers, Jacquelyn L; Shmulewitz, Dvora; Elliott, Jennifer C; Thompson, Ronald G; Aharonovich, Efrat; Spivak, Baruch; Weizman, Abraham; Frisch, Amos; Grant, Bridget F; Hasin, Deborah S
Objective: The association between alcoholism in parents and related disorders in their offspring is well established in cultures with intermediate/high alcohol consumption, but not in those with low consumption, such as Israel. This study investigated differences in parental transmission of alcohol problems and related psychopathology between immigrants from the former Soviet Union (FSU) to Israel and other Israelis—two Israeli subgroups with differing alcohol consumption behaviors and social norms. Method: A total of 1,347 adults from a household sample were interviewed. Regression analyses were used to examine associations between parental alcohol problems and participant disorders: alcohol, nicotine, and cannabis use disorders (AUD, NUD, CUD); antisocial personality disorder (ASPD); major depressive disorder (MDD); and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We also examined the associations of parental alcohol problems with participant disorders characterized with two latent factors: externalizing (EXT: AUD, NUD, CUD, ASPD) and internalizing (INT: MDD, PTSD). Differential parental transmission of alcohol problems in FSU (n = 315) and non-FSU (n = 1,032) Israelis was examined with statistical interaction. Results: Among emigrants from the FSU, parental alcohol problems predicted AUD, NUD, CUD, ASPD, PTSD, EXT, and INT (mean ratios = 1.38–4.83). In non-FSU Israelis, parental alcohol problems predicted only ASPD and PTSD (mean ratios = 1.08–4.09). Significant interactions were observed for AUD, CUD, PTSD, and EXT; each relationship was stronger in FSU Israelis and null (AUD, CUD, EXT) or less robust (PTSD) in other Israelis. Conclusions: Parental alcohol problems were related to substance use and psychiatric disorders differently in FSU and other Israelis, two groups with different alcohol consumption levels and drinking norms. We propose that, in social contexts that vary in the degree to which they constrain alcohol behavior, underlying genetic
George, Olivier; Sanders, Chelsea; Freiling, John; Grigoryan, Edward; Vu, Shayla; Allen, Camryn D.; Crawford, Elena; Mandyam, Chitra D.; Koob, George F.
Chronic intermittent access to alcohol leads to the escalation of alcohol intake, similar to binge drinking in humans. Converging lines of evidence suggest that impairment of medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) cognitive function and overactivation of the central nucleus of the amygdala (CeA) are key factors that lead to excessive drinking in dependence. However, the role of the mPFC and CeA in the escalation of alcohol intake in rats with a history of binge drinking without dependence is currently unknown. To address this issue, we examined FBJ murine osteosarcoma viral oncogene homolog (Fos) expression in the mPFC, CeA, hippocampus, and nucleus accumbens and evaluated working memory and anxiety-like behavior in rats given continuous (24 h/d for 7 d/wk) or intermittent (3 d/wk) access to alcohol (20% vol/vol) using a two-bottle choice paradigm. The results showed that abstinence from alcohol in rats with a history of escalation of alcohol intake specifically recruited GABA and corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) neurons in the mPFC and produced working memory impairments associated with excessive alcohol drinking during acute (24–72 h) but not protracted (16 –68 d) abstinence. Moreover, abstinence from alcohol was associated with a functional disconnection of the mPFC and CeA but not mPFC and nucleus accumbens. These results show that recruitment of a subset of GABA and CRF neurons in the mPFC during withdrawal and disconnection of the PFC–CeA pathway may be critical for impaired executive control over motivated behavior, suggesting that dysregulation of mPFC interneurons may be an early index of neuroadaptation in alcohol dependence. PMID:23071333
PARSONS, JEFFREY T.; ROSOF, ELANA; MUSTANSKI, BRIAN
The study explored the relationship between HIV medication adherence and alcohol, cognitive, social and affective factors in 272 persons with alcohol problems. Alcohol and cognitive factors significantly differentiated those who did and did not adhere. Specifically, adherence confidence and number of drinks emerged as subfactors driving the associations to adherence. Among those who were less than perfectly adherent (n = 154), only alcohol factors predicted levels of nonadherence. Cognitive factors play a role in understanding some of the differences between those who do and do not adhere to their HIV medications, but they do not differentiate among levels of nonadherence. PMID:17284499
Mosher, James F
I have documented the shift in youth alcoholic beverage preference from beer to distilled spirits between 2001 and 2009. I have assessed the role of distilled spirits industry marketing strategies to promote this shift using the Smirnoff brand marketing campaign as a case example. I conclude with a discussion of the similarities in corporate tactics across consumer products with adverse public health impacts, the importance of studying corporate marketing and public relations practices, and the implications of those practices for public health.
Serrano Iglesias, María; de Lourdes Samaniego Vaesken, María; Varela Moreiras, Gregorio
The aim of this study was to draw an updated map of the nutrition facts in the different categories of non-alcoholic beverages in the Spanish market based on the information declared on the labels of these products; we expect this first step to justify the need for the coordination and harmonization of food composition tables in Spain so that there will be an updated database available to produce realistic scientific nutrient intake estimates in accordance with the actual market scenario. Materials and Methods: The nutrition facts declared on the labels of non-alcoholic beverages by manufacturers in Spain were compiled and studied. Results: The database included 211 beverages classified in 7 groups with energy/carbohydrate content per 100 mL ranging from 0–55 kcal/0–13 g for soft drinks; 2–60 kcal/0–14.5 g for energy drinks; 24–31 kcal/5.8–7.5 g for sports drinks; 1–32 kcal/0–7.3 g for drinks containing mineral salts in their composition; 14–69 kcal/2.6–17 g for fruit juice, nectar, and grape musts; 43–78 kcal/6.1–14.4 g for vegetable drinks; and 33–88 kcal/3.6–14 g for dairy drinks. Conclusion: The current non-alcoholic beverage market is a dynamic, growing, and highly innovative one, allowing consumers to choose according to their preferences, needs, or level of physical activity at any moment of the day. PMID:27740599
Cherry, L; Redmond, S P
A program for preventing alcohol-related problems at the community level using environmentally-focused, public health approaches sought to involve a new segment of the community. That segment consisted of recently-immigrated Afghans from a traditionally abstinent culture. Social marketing research was employed to elicit value-based benefits to be used in promoting the product (involvement with environmental change efforts) to the target audience. While the channels of distribution for promotional messages were easily identified, special attention was required relative to effective spokespersons. Much was also learned about the immigration experience of Afghans in a San Francisco Bay Area community that has significance for other fields.
Creswell, Kasey G.; Bachrach, Rachel L.; Wright, Aidan G.C.; Pinto, Anthony; Ansell, Emily
There is high comorbidity between personality disorders and alcohol use disorders, which appears related to individual differences in underlying personality dimensions of behavioral undercontrol and affective dysregulation. Very little is known about how the DSM-5 Section III trait model of personality pathology relates to alcohol problems, however, or how the strength of the relationship between personality pathology and alcohol problems changes with age and across gender. The current study examined these questions in a sample of 877 participants using the General Assessment of Personality Disorder to assess general personality dysfunction, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 to measure specific traits, and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test to assess problematic alcohol use. Results demonstrated that general personality pathology (Criterion A) was significantly related to problematic alcohol use after controlling for age and gender effects. Further, two of the five higher-order personality trait domains (Criterion B), Antagonism and Disinhibition, remained significant predictors of problematic alcohol use after accounting for the influence of general personality pathology; however, general personality pathology no longer predicted hazardous alcohol use once Antagonism and Disinhibition were added into the model. Finally, these two specific traits interacted with age, such that Antagonism was a stronger predictor of AUDIT scores among older individuals and Disinhibition was a stronger predictor of alcohol problems among younger individuals. Findings support the general validity of this new personality disorder diagnostic system and suggest important age effects in the relationship between traits and problematic alcohol use. PMID:26389625
... de los dientes Video: Getting an X-ray Alcohol KidsHealth > For Kids > Alcohol Print A A A What's in this article? ... What Is Alcoholism? Say No en español El alcohol Getting the Right Message "Hey, who wants a ...
MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G
Considerable basic and clinical research supports a behavioral economic conceptualization of alcohol and drug dependence. One behavioral economic approach to assess motivation for a drug is the use of demand curves, or quantitative representations of drug consumption and drug-reinforced responding across a range of prices. This study used a hypothetical alcohol purchase task to generate demand curves, and examined whether the resulting demand curve parameters predicted drinking outcomes following a brief intervention. Participants were 51 college student drinkers (67% female; 94% Caucasian; drinks/week: M=24.57, S.D.=8.77) who completed a brief alcohol intervention. Consistent with predictions, a number of demand curve indices significantly predicted post-intervention alcohol use and frequency of heavy drinking episodes, even after controlling for baseline drinking and other pertinent covariates. Most prominently, O(max) (i.e., maximum alcohol expenditure) and breakpoint (i.e., sensitivity of consumption to increasing price) predicted greater drinking at 6-month post-intervention follow-up. These results indicate that a behavioral economic measure of alcohol demand may have utility in characterizing the malleability of alcohol consumption. Moreover, these results support the utility of translating experimental assays of reinforcement into clinical research.
Kuntsche, Emmanuel; Kuendig, Hervé
The link between drinking motives and alcohol-related outcomes has been investigated extensively, yet almost exclusively using retrospective self-reports that are subject to recall bias. This study overcomes this limitation using an experimental design to test whether the 4 drinking-motive dimensions (social, enhancement, coping and conformity, as measured in the baseline questionnaire) predict the quantity of alcohol actually ingested during 2 wine-tasting sessions conducted approximately 3 and 7 weeks after the baseline motive assessment. Regression modeling was based on an analog measurement of grams of pure alcohol among 123 young adults. Self-reported data at baseline concurred with the data collected during the experimental sessions, that is, alcohol consumption was high for males and enhancement drinkers and low for conformity drinkers. Coping drinkers significantly increased their consumption between the first and second sessions, while social drinkers tended to decrease theirs. Yet when separately considering data recorded during the first session, none of the drinking motives predicted the amounts of alcohol actually consumed. To conclude, this study demonstrates that motives predict actual alcohol consumption, which is consistent with evidence-based self-reports. Particularly, enhancement and coping drinkers seem to take advantage of the drinking situation probably because they usually appreciate the psychoactive properties of alcohol, either to maximize pleasurable sensations or to alleviate negative ones. However, if the setting is unusual (first tasting session), situational characteristics may "overrule" the effect of personal motives.
Simons, Jeffrey S.; Wills, Thomas A.; Emery, Noah N.; Marks, Russell M.
Research on alcohol use depends heavily on the validity of self-reported drinking. The present paper presents data from 647 days of self-monitoring with a transdermal alcohol sensor by 60 young adults. We utilized a bio chemical measure, transdermal alcohol assessment with the WrisTAS, to examine the convergent validity of three approaches to collecting daily self-report drinking data: experience sampling, daily morning reports of the previous night, and 1-week timeline follow-back (TLFB) assessments. We tested associations between three pharmacokinetic indices (peak concentration, area under the curve (AUC), and time to reach peak concentration) derived from the transdermal alcohol signal and within- and between-person variation in alcohol dependence symptoms. The WrisTAS data corroborated 85.74% of self-reported drinking days based on the experience sampling data. The TLFB assessment and combined experience sampling and morning reports agreed on 87.27% of drinking days. Drinks per drinking day did not vary as a function of wearing or not wearing the sensor; this indicates that participants provided consistent reports of their drinking regardless of biochemical verification. In respect to self-reported alcohol dependence symptoms, the AUC of the WrisTAS alcohol signal was associated with dependence symptoms at both the within- and between-person level. Furthermore, alcohol dependence symptoms at baseline predicted drinking episodes characterized in biochemical data by both higher peak alcohol concentration and faster time to reach peak concentration. The results support the validity of self-report alcohol data, provide empirical data useful for optimal design of daily process sampling, and provide an initial demon stration of the use of transdermal alcohol assessment to characterize drinking dynamics associated with risk for alcohol dependence. PMID:26160523
Creswell, Kasey G; Chung, Tammy; Clark, Duncan B; Martin, Christopher S
Adolescent solitary drinking may represent an informative divergence from normative behavior, with important implications for understanding risk for alcohol-use disorders later in life. Within a self-medication framework, we hypothesized that solitary alcohol use would be associated with drinking in response to negative affect and that such a pattern of drinking would predict alcohol problems in young adulthood. We tested these predictions in a longitudinal study in which we examined whether solitary drinking in adolescence (ages 12-18) predicted alcohol-use disorders in young adulthood (age 25) in 466 alcohol-using teens recruited from clinical programs and 243 alcohol-using teens recruited from the community. Findings showed that solitary drinking was associated with drinking in response to negative affect during adolescence and predicted alcohol problems in young adulthood. Results indicate that drinking alone is an important type of alcohol-use behavior that increases risk for the escalation of alcohol use and the development of alcohol problems.
Gu, Rongbao; Xiong, Wei; Li, Xinjie
This paper analyzes the predictive ability of the singular value decomposition entropy for the Shenzhen Component Index based on different scales. It is found that, the predictive ability of the entropy for the index is affected by the width of moving time windows and the structural break in stock market. By moving time windows with one year, the predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy of Shenzhen stock market for its component index is found after the reform of non-tradable shares.
Gunn, Rachel L.; Smith, Gregory T.
Little is known about the correlates and potential causes of very early drinking. The authors proposed this risk theory: (a) pubertal onset is associated with increased levels of positive urgency (the tendency to act rashly when experiencing intensely positive mood), negative urgency (the tendency to act rashly when distressed), and sensation seeking; (b) those traits predict increased endorsement of high-risk alcohol expectancies; (c) the expectancies predict drinker status among 5th graders; and (d) the apparent influence of positive urgency, negative urgency, and sensation seeking on drinker status is mediated by alcohol expectancies. The authors conducted a concurrent test of whether the relationships among these variables were consistent with the theory in a sample of 1,843 5th grade students. In a well-fitting structural model, their hypotheses were supported. Drinker status among 5th graders is not just a function of context and factors external to children: it is predictable from a combination of pubertal status, personality characteristics, and learned alcohol expectancies. PMID:20822192
... parents and other adults use alcohol socially — having beer or wine with dinner, for example — alcohol seems ... besides just hanging out in someone's basement drinking beer all night. Plan a trip to the movies, ...
Buckley, Patrick; Garvey, John; McGrath, Fergal
In this paper, prediction markets are presented as an innovative pedagogical tool which can be used to create a Rich Environment for Active Learning (REAL). Prediction markets are designed to make forecasts about specific future events by using a market mechanism to aggregate the information held by a large group of traders about that event into a…
Record, Chris; Day, Chris
Discounting of alcoholic products is universal in U.K. supermarkets with some chains selling own brand spirits for less than the duty payable per item. Eighty per cent of alcohol purchases are made by 30% of the population and this group are the main beneficiaries. In December 2008 the government announced its intention to consult on modifications to the Licensing Act 2003 to enable the introduction of mandatory conditions for the sale of alcoholic products in order to curtail alcohol harm. In this article it is shown that families in Britain have nothing to fear from the introduction of a 50 p/unit minimum price of alcohol as the overall effect should be a reduction in average weekly supermarket bills for the majority while harmful and hazardous drinkers will pay more. By paying less for non-alcoholic products sold by supermarkets, moderate drinkers should no longer be effectively subsidising the alcohol purchased by the harmful and hazardous group.
Caliguri, Joseph P., Ed.
This extensive annotated bibliography provides a compilation of documents retreived from a computerized search of the ERIC, Social Science Citation Index, and Med-Line databases on the topic of alcoholism. The materials address the following areas of concern: (1) attitudes toward alcohol users and abusers; (2) characteristics of alcoholics and…
Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia
Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p < .01). The study confirms that alcohol use and driving under the influence of alcohol are highly prevalent in Spanish young people, and some gender differences exist in these behaviors (p < .01). Furthermore, the study confirms the validity of theory of reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs.
Driscoll, Carlos A; Lindell, Stephen G; Schwandt, Melanie L; Suomi, Stephen J; Higley, J Dee; Heilig, Markus; Barr, Christina S
Although the notion that alcohol promotes violence is widespread, not all individuals are aggressive while intoxicated. Genetic variation could be a contributing factor to individual differences in alcohol-heightened aggression. The present study examines the effects of OPRM1C77G genotype on responses to threat in rhesus macaques under normal conditions and following alcohol administration. Prior studies have shown that a low CSF level of 5-HIAA is a trait marker for individuals prone to escalated aggression. We wanted to examine whether the predictive value for this marker on aggression was moderated by OPRM1 genotype. Animals were administered alcohol (BAC 100-200 mg%), were provoked by a human intruder, and aggressive responses were recorded. Factor analysis was performed to generate aggressive response factors, which were then used as dependent variables for ANOVA, with OPRM1 genotype and CSF 5-HIAA as independent variables. Factor analysis generated three factors ('Threatening', 'Distance Decreasing' and 'High Intensity'). We found that High Intensity aggression was increased among carriers of the OPRM1 G allele, especially among individuals with low CSF levels of 5-HIAA. Aggression in the non-intoxicated state was predicted by 5-HIAA, but not by genotype. This study demonstrates that OPRM1 genotype predicts alcohol-heightened aggression in rhesus macaques with low CSF levels of 5-HIAA. Because OPRM1 variation predicts similar effects on alcohol response and behavior in humans and macaques, this study could suggest a role for OPRM1 genotype in alcohol-heightened aggression in humans. If so, it may be that compounds that block this receptor could reduce alcohol-associated violence in selected patient populations.
Iturriaga, H; Hirsch, S; Bunout, D; Díaz, M; Kelly, M; Silva, G; de la Maza, M P; Petermann, M; Ugarte, G
Looking for a noninvasive method to predict liver histologic alterations in alcoholic patients without clinical signs of liver failure, we studied 187 chronic alcoholics recently abstinent, divided in 2 series. In the model series (n = 94) several clinical variables and results of common laboratory tests were confronted to the findings of liver biopsies. These were classified in 3 groups: 1. Normal liver; 2. Moderate alterations; 3. Marked alterations, including alcoholic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Multivariate methods used were logistic regression analysis and a classification and regression tree (CART). Both methods entered gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), aspartate-aminotransferase (AST), weight and age as significant and independent variables. Univariate analysis with GGT and AST at different cutoffs were also performed. To predict the presence of any kind of damage (Groups 2 and 3), CART and AST > 30 IU showed the higher sensitivity, specificity and correct prediction, both in the model and validation series. For prediction of marked liver damage, a score based on logistic regression and GGT > 110 IU had the higher efficiencies. It is concluded that GGT and AST are good markers of alcoholic liver damage and that, using sample cutoffs, histologic diagnosis can be correctly predicted in 80% of recently abstinent asymptomatic alcoholics.
Genevsky, Alexander; Knutson, Brian
Humans sometimes share with others whom they may never meet or know, in violation of the dictates of pure self-interest. Research has not established which neuropsychological mechanisms support lending decisions, nor whether their influence extends to markets involving significant financial incentives. In two studies, we found that neural affective mechanisms influence the success of requests for microloans. In a large Internet database of microloan requests (N = 13,500), we found that positive affective features of photographs promoted the success of those requests. We then established that neural activity (i.e., in the nucleus accumbens) and self-reported positive arousal in a neuroimaging sample (N = 28) predicted the success of loan requests on the Internet, above and beyond the effects of the neuroimaging sample's own choices (i.e., to lend or not). These findings suggest that elicitation of positive arousal can promote the success of loan requests, both in the laboratory and on the Internet. They also highlight affective neuroscience's potential to probe neuropsychological mechanisms that drive microlending, enhance the effectiveness of loan requests, and forecast market-level behavior.
Lid, Torgeir Gilje; Eide, Geir Egil; Dalen, Ingvild; Meland, Eivind
Objective To explore whether information regarding potentially alcohol-related health incidents recorded in electronic patient records might aid in earlier identification of alcohol use disorders. Design We extracted potentially alcohol-related information in electronic patient records and tested if alcohol-related diagnoses, prescriptions of codeine, tramadol, ethylmorphine, and benzodiazepines; elevated levels of gamma-glutamyl-transferase (GGT), and mean cell volume (MCV); and new sick leave certificates predicted specific alcohol use disorder. Setting Nine general practitioner surgeries with varying size and stability. Subjects Totally 20,764 patients with active electronic patient record until data gathering and with a history of at least four years without a specific alcohol use disorder after turning 18 years of age. Methods The Cox proportional hazard analysis with time-dependent covariates of potential accumulated risks over the previous four years. Main outcome measures Time from inclusion until the first specific alcohol use disorder, defined by either an alcohol specific diagnostic code or a text fragment documenting an alcohol problem. Results In the unadjusted and adjusted Cox-regression with time-dependent covariates all variables were highly significant with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.25 to 3.50. Addictive drugs, sick leaves, GGT, MCV and International Classification for Primary Care version 2 (ICPC-2), and International Classification of Diseases version 10 (ICD-10) diagnoses were analyzed. Elevated GGT and MCV, ICD-10-diagnoses, and gender demonstrated the highest hazard ratios. Conclusions Many frequent health problems are potential predictors of an increased risk or vulnerability for alcohol use disorders. However, due to the modest hazard ratios, we were unable to establish a clinically useful tool. Key Points Alcohol is potentially relevant for many health problems, but current strategies for identification and intervention in
Wiers, Reinout W; Beckers, Leen; Houben, Katrijn; Hofmann, Wilhelm
This study tested a hypothesis derived from recent dual-process models, which conceptualize behavior as the interplay of associative and Executive Control (EC) processes. This general logic was applied here to the phenomenon of aggressiveness after drinking alcohol. Specifically, we predicted that automatic associations between alcohol and power would predict aggressiveness after drinking in men with relatively weak EC. Participants were 57 heavy drinking male students, who completed two versions of the Implicit Association Test (IAT), one assessing alcohol-power associations (hypothesized critical associations) and one alcohol-arousal associations (control-test), a classical Stroop test (measure of EC) and a number of alcohol-related questionnaires, including four questions on aggressiveness after drinking (dependent variable). As predicted, automatic alcohol-power associations significantly predicted self-reported aggressiveness after drinking in low but not in high EC individuals. As expected, this interaction was specific for alcohol-power associations since it was not found with regard to alcohol-arousal associations. We argue that this finding, together with a recent related findings, indicates that specific instances of "impulsivity" can be conceptualized as the joint outcome of two processes: a general weak EC and an associative process that predicts the impulsive behavior under study when not inhibited by EC processes.
Creswell, Kasey G; Bachrach, Rachel L; Wright, Aidan G C; Pinto, Anthony; Ansell, Emily
High comorbidity between personality disorders and alcohol use disorders appears related to individual differences in underlying personality dimensions of behavioral undercontrol and affective dysregulation. However, very little is known about how the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th edition; DSM-5) Section III trait model of personality pathology relates to alcohol problems or how the strength of the relationship between personality pathology and alcohol problems changes with age and across gender. The current study examined these questions in a sample of 877 participants using the General Assessment of Personality Disorder to assess general personality dysfunction, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 to measure specific traits, and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) to assess problematic alcohol use. Results demonstrated that general personality pathology (Criterion A) was significantly related to problematic alcohol use after controlling for age and gender effects. Furthermore, 2 of the 5 higher-order personality trait domains (Criterion B), Antagonism and Disinhibition, remained significant predictors of problematic alcohol use after accounting for the influence of general personality pathology; however, general personality pathology no longer predicted hazardous alcohol use once Antagonism and Disinhibition were added into the model. Finally, these 2 specific traits interacted with age, such that Antagonism was a stronger predictor of AUDIT scores among older individuals and Disinhibition was a stronger predictor of alcohol problems among younger individuals. Findings support the general validity of this new personality disorder diagnostic system and suggest important age effects in the relationship between traits and problematic alcohol use. (PsycINFO Database Record
Rothschild, Michael L; Mastin, Beth; Miller, Thomas W
Over the past decade there has been little decrease in the number of alcohol-related driving fatalities. During this time most interventions have been educational or legal. This paper presents the results of a field experiment that used social marketing to introduce a new ride program into three rural communities. Almost all people in the 21-34-year-old target know that they should not drive while impaired, and most agree it is not a good thing to do, but for many the opportunity to behave properly does not exist. The Road Crew program was developed using new product development techniques and implemented by developing broad coalitions within the communities. A key feature of the program included rides to, between, and home from bars in older luxury vehicles. Results showed a significant shift in riding/driving behavior, especially among 21-34-year olds, a projected 17% decline in alcohol-related crashes in the first year, no increase in drinking behavior, and large savings between the reactive cost of cleaning up after a crash and the proactive cost of avoiding a crash. Programs have become self-sustaining based on fares and tavern contributions, and have become part of the life style in the treatment communities.
Atkinson, Amanda Marie; Sumnall, Harry; Measham, Fiona
Aims: This study analysed the depiction of alcohol in an online government partnered social marketing campaign: Hollyoaks "The Morning After the Night Before". This was a new initiative, providing Internet-delivered episodes of a popular terrestrial drama targeted at young people. Methods: All the 12 episodes were coded for "visual…
Yan, Wanfeng; Woodard, Ryan; Sornette, Didier
We introduce the concept of “negative bubbles” as the mirror (but not necessarily exactly symmetric) image of standard financial bubbles, in which positive feedback mechanisms may lead to transient accelerating price falls. To model these negative bubbles, we adapt the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with a hazard rate describing the collective buying pressure of noise traders. The price fall occurring during a transient negative bubble can be interpreted as an effective random down payment that rational agents accept to pay in the hope of profiting from the expected occurrence of a possible rally. We validate the model by showing that it has significant predictive power in identifying the times of major market rebounds. This result is obtained by using a general pattern recognition method that combines the information obtained at multiple times from a dynamical calibration of the JLS model. Error diagrams, Bayesian inference and trading strategies suggest that one can extract genuine information and obtain real skill from the calibration of negative bubbles with the JLS model. We conclude that negative bubbles are in general predictably associated with large rebounds or rallies, which are the mirror images of the crashes terminating standard bubbles.
I have documented the shift in youth alcoholic beverage preference from beer to distilled spirits between 2001 and 2009. I have assessed the role of distilled spirits industry marketing strategies to promote this shift using the Smirnoff brand marketing campaign as a case example. I conclude with a discussion of the similarities in corporate tactics across consumer products with adverse public health impacts, the importance of studying corporate marketing and public relations practices, and the implications of those practices for public health. PMID:22095339
Goren, Amir; Harris, Jennifer L; Schwartz, Marlene B; Brownell, Kelly D
To address the obesity crisis, public health experts recommend major reductions in the marketing of unhealthy food to youth. However, policies to restrict food marketing are not currently viewed as politically feasible. This paper examines attitudes and knowledge about food marketing and support for restricting unhealthy food marketing [corrected] among one group of constituents: parents. A survey of 807 parents found that those most likely to support food marketing restrictions were also more likely to have negative views of current food practices. [corrected] These findings suggest that increased public education about the harm caused by food marketing may increase public support for policy interventions.
Lock, C A; Kaner, E F; Heather, N; McAvoy, B R; Gilvarry, E
BACKGROUND: Research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. A dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. AIM: To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different marketing strategies for the dissemination of a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). METHOD: Seven hundred and twenty-nine GPs, one per practice, from the former Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies: postal marketing (mailing a promotional brochure to GPs), telemarketing (following a script to market the programme over the telephone), and personal marketing (following the same script during face-to-face marketing at GPs' practices). GPs who took up the programme were asked if they would agree to use it. Outcome measures included the proportions of GPs who took up the programme and agreement to use it. RESULTS: Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, 321 (52%) took the programme. There was a significant difference in the proportions of GPs from the three marketing strategies who took the programme (82% telemarketing, 68% personal marketing, and 22% postal marketing). Of the 315 GPs who took the programme and were eligible to use it, 128 (41%) agreed to use the programme for three months. GPs in the postal marketing group were more likely to agree to use the programme (55% postal marketing, 44% personal marketing, and 34% telemarketing). Personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination strategy; however, economic analysis revealed that telemarketing was the most cost-effective strategy. Costs for dissemination per GP were: 13 Pounds telemarketing, 15 Pounds postal marketing, and 88 Pounds personal marketing. CONCLUSION: Telemarketing appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy
Carey, Kate B.; Senn, Theresa E.; Walsh, Jennifer L.; Scott-Sheldon, Lori A. J.; Carey, Michael P.
This study tested the hypothesis that greater alcohol involvement will predict number of sexual partners to a greater extent for women than for men, and that the hypothesized sex-specific, alcohol—sexual partner associations will hold when controlling for alternative sex-linked explanations (i.e., depression and drug use). We recruited 508 patients (46% female, 67% African American) from a public STI clinic. Participants reported number of sexual partners, drinks per week, maximum drinks per day, frequency of heavy drinking; they also completed the AUDIT-C and a measure of alcohol problems. As expected, men reported more drinking and sexual partners. Also as expected, the association between alcohol use and number of partners was significant for women but not for men, and these associations were not explained by drug use or depression. A comprehensive prevention strategy for women attending STI clinics might include alcohol use reduction. PMID:26310596
Seo, Sambu; Mohr, Johannes; Beck, Anne; Wüstenberg, Torsten; Heinz, Andreas; Obermayer, Klaus
In alcohol dependence, individual prediction of treatment outcome based on neuroimaging endophenotypes can help to tailor individual therapeutic offers to patients depending on their relapse risk. We built a prediction model for prospective relapse of alcohol-dependent patients that combines structural and functional brain images derived from an experiment in which 46 subjects were exposed to alcohol-related cues. The patient group had been subdivided post hoc regarding relapse behavior defined as a consumption of more than 60 g alcohol for male or more than 40 g alcohol for female patients on one occasion during the 3-month assessment period (16 abstainers and 30 relapsers). Naïve Bayes, support vector machines and learning vector quantization were used to infer prediction models for relapse based on the mean and maximum values of gray matter volume and brain responses on alcohol-related cues within a priori defined regions of interest. Model performance was estimated by leave-one-out cross-validation. Learning vector quantization yielded the model with the highest balanced accuracy (79.4 percent, p < 0.0001; 90 percent sensitivity, 68.8 percent specificity). The most informative individual predictors were functional brain activation features in the right and left ventral tegmental areas and the right ventral striatum, as well as gray matter volume features in left orbitofrontal cortex and right medial prefrontal cortex. In contrast, the best pure clinical model reached only chance-level accuracy (61.3 percent). Our results indicate that an individual prediction of future relapse from imaging measurement outperforms prediction from clinical measurements. The approach may help to target specific interventions at different risk groups.
Hannigan, John H; Chiodo, Lisa M; Sokol, Robert J; Janisse, James; Ager, Joel W; Greenwald, Mark K; Delaney-Black, Virginia
Detecting patterns of maternal drinking that place fetuses at risk for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs) is critical to diagnosis, treatment, and prevention but is challenging because information on antenatal drinking collected during pregnancy is often insufficient or lacking. Although retrospective assessments have been considered less favored by many researchers due to presumed poor reliability, this perception may be inaccurate because of reduced maternal denial and/or distortion. The present study hypothesized that fetal alcohol exposure, as assessed retrospectively during child adolescence, would be related significantly to prior measures of maternal drinking and would predict alcohol-related behavioral problems in teens better than antenatal measures of maternal alcohol consumption. Drinking was assessed during pregnancy, and retrospectively about the same pregnancy, at a 14-year follow-up in 288 African-American women using well-validated semistructured interviews. Regression analysis examined the predictive validity of both drinking assessments on pregnancy outcomes and on teacher-reported teen behavior outcomes. Retrospective maternal self-reported drinking assessed 14 years postpartum was significantly higher than antenatal reports of consumption. Retrospective report identified 10.8 times more women as risk drinkers (≥ one drink per day) than the antenatal report. Antenatal and retrospective reports were moderately correlated and both were correlated with the Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test. Self-reported alcohol consumption during pregnancy based on retrospective report identified significantly more teens exposed prenatally to at-risk alcohol levels than antenatal, in-pregnancy reports. Retrospective report predicted more teen behavior problems (e.g., attention problems and externalizing behaviors) than the antenatal report. Antenatal report predicted younger gestational age at birth and retrospective report predicted smaller birth size
Robinson, Elizabeth A. R.; Krentzman, Amy R.; Webb, Jon R.; Brower, Kirk J.
Objective: Although spiritual change is hypothesized to contribute to recovery from alcohol dependence, few studies have used prospective data to investigate this hypothesis. Prior studies have also been limited to treatment-seeking and Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) samples. This study included alcohol-dependent individuals, both in treatment and not, to investigate the effect of spiritual and religious (SR) change on subsequent drinking outcomes, independent of AA involvement. Method: Alcoholics (N = 364) were recruited for a panel study from two abstinence-based treatment centers, a moderation drinking program, and untreated individuals from the local community. Quantitative measures of SR change between baseline and 6 months were used to predict 9-month drinking outcomes, controlling for baseline drinking and AA involvement. Results: Significant 6-month changes in 8 of 12 SR measures were found, which included private SR practices, beliefs, daily spiritual experiences, three measures of forgiveness, negative religious coping, and purpose in life. Increases in private SR practices and forgiveness of self were the strongest predictors of improvements in drinking outcomes. Changes in daily spiritual experiences, purpose in life, a general measure of forgiveness, and negative religious coping also predicted favorable drinking outcomes. Conclusions: SR change predicted good drinking outcomes in alcoholics, even when controlling for AA involvement. SR variables, broadly defined, deserve attention in fostering change even among those who do not affiliate with AA or religious institutions. Last, future research should include SR variables, particularly various types of forgiveness, given the strong effects found for forgiveness of self. PMID:21683048
Merrill, Jennifer E.; Wardell, Jeffrey D.; Read, Jennifer P.
Objective: Although college students experience a diverse range of alcohol consequences, most studies focus on global, rather than distinct, consequence types. One predictor of unique consequences—drinking motives—has been studied only cross-sectionally. We aimed to examine the prediction of unique alcohol consequence domains (social/interpersonal, academic/occupational, risky behavior, impaired control, poor self-care, diminished self-perception, blackout drinking, and physiological dependence) by coping and enhancement motives over the course of one year. We hypothesized that coping motives would directly predict and that enhancement motives would indirectly (through alcohol use) predict unique consequences. Method: Web surveys were administered to a sample of college students (n = 552, 62% female) at the beginning of the fall semester for 2 consecutive academic years. Structural equation modeling was used to test direct and indirect paths from motives to consequences. Results: The data supported hypothesized direct, prospective paths from coping motives to several alcohol consequences (impaired control, diminished self-perception, poor self-care, risky behaviors, academic/occupational, and physiological dependence). These associations were not mediated by alcohol consumption. Enhancement motives were indirectly associated with all eight consequence domains by way of increased alcohol use at follow-up. Models were invariant across gender, year in school, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress. Conclusions: Findings suggest that whether motives act as a final common pathway to problem drinking may depend on which motives and which drinking outcomes are examined. As coping motives demonstrate a direct link to unique alcohol problem types over time, individuals endorsing these motives may need to be prioritized for intervention. PMID:24411801
Mudge, Stephen M; DeLeo, Paul C
Fatty alcohol-based surfactants are widely used in detergents and personal care products; they are typically disposed of down-the-drain and are degraded or removed during wastewater treatment. Analytical data had shown concentration and profile differences between regions of the United States. Market sales data were purchased relevant to the sampling dates. In combination with analysis of the fatty alcohol profiles in the top selling products, the influent profiles were reconstructed and compared to the whole U.S. sales data. The per capita usage rate for fatty alcohols through these 4000+ top selling products was 4.9 g per day, with 88% arising from liquid laundry detergents and hand dish detergents. This extrapolates to a national usage of 185,000 tonnes per year. There were significant differences in the purchasing habits of the inhabitants across the four regions sampled, although this had minimal impact on the fatty alcohol profile which was dominated by the C12 moiety. The U.S. market was also dominated by petrochemically-sourced chemicals. This market forensics approach using purchased sales data was able to extend our knowledge of the fate of these chemicals without a major (expensive) sampling and analytical campaign.
McBride, Anthony A.; And Others
At 4-year followup on 110 Mexican-American adolescents in a drug abuse prevention program, association with deviant peers was strongly predictive of alcohol and drug use and criminality, whereas parental influences were minor predictors. Low school satisfaction was related to greater drug use, particularly for females. (Author/SV)
Background A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths’ drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Methods Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Results Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI = 1.06–3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI = 1.05–2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI = 1.06–2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. Conclusions There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth. PMID:24325264
Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B.; DeNardi, Kathleen A.; Walker, Dave P.
Objectives Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Methods Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. Results The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Conclusions Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:23312991
Demmel, Ralf; Beck, Beate; Lammers, André
Cognitive processes related to client motivation are important mediators of alcoholism treatment outcome. The present study aimed to expand previous research on client motivation and treatment outcome by establishing the predictive utility of self-efficacy, alcohol expectancies, and readiness to change in a sample of alcohol-dependent inpatients (N = 83). Treatment outcome was assessed three months following discharge. According to self-reported alcohol use, 22 clients were classified as abstainers and 41 clients as relapsers. Twenty participants were lost to follow-up. Readiness to change and anticipated reinforcement from alcohol predicted abstinence at follow-up. Client motivation was unrelated to both frequency and quantity of alcohol use. In accordance with social learning theory, self-efficacy was inversely correlated with alcohol expectancies. The results of the present study suggest that once abstinence has been violated factors other than pretreatment motivation determine drinking behavior.
Deshpande, Sameer; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn
The current study contributes to the social marketing literature in the American university binge-drinking context in three innovative ways. First, it profiles drinking segments by "values" and "expectancies" sought from behaviors. Second, the study compares segment values and expectancies of two competing behaviors, that is, binge drinking and participation in alternative activities. Third, the study compares the influence of a variety of factors on both behaviors in each segment. Finally, based on these findings and feedback from eight university alcohol prevention experts, appropriate strategies to promote responsible alcohol use for each segment are proposed.
... created when grains, fruits, or vegetables are fermented . Fermentation is a process that uses yeast or bacteria ... change the sugars in the food into alcohol. Fermentation is used to produce many necessary items — everything ...
Describes the manufacturing of ethanol, the effects of ethanol on the body, the composition of alcoholic drinks, and some properties of ethanol. Presents some classroom experiments using ethanol. (JRH)
Landon, Jane; Lobstein, Tim; Godfrey, Fiona; Johns, Paula; Brookes, Chris; Jernigan, David
Background and aims The 2011 UN Summit on Non-Communicable Disease failed to call for global action on alcohol marketing despite calls in the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases 2013-20 to restrict or ban alcohol advertising. In this paper we ask what it might take to match the global approach to tobacco enshrined in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), and suggest that public health advocates can learn from the development of the FCTC and the Code of Marketing on infant formula milks and the recent recommendations on restricting food marketing to children. Methods Narrative review of qualitative accounts of the processes that created and monitor existing codes and treaties to restrict the marketing of consumer products, specifically breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco. Findings The development of treaties and codes for market restrictions include: (i) evidence of a public health crisis; (ii) the cost of inaction; (iii) civil society advocacy; (iv) the building of capacity; (v) the management of conflicting interests in policy development; and (vi) the need to consider monitoring and accountability to ensure compliance. Conclusion International public health treaties and codes provide an umbrella under which national governments can strengthen their own legislation, assisted by technical support from international agencies and non-governmental organizations. Three examples of international agreements, those for breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco, can provide lessons for the public health community to make progress on alcohol controls. Lessons include stronger alliances of advocates and health professionals and better tools and capacity to monitor and report current marketing practices and trends.
Rowland, Bosco; Toumbourou, John Winston; Osborn, Amber; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Williams, Joanne; Leslie, Eva
Introduction Throughout the world, alcohol consumption is common among adolescents. Adolescent alcohol use and misuse have prognostic significance for several adverse long-term outcomes, including alcohol problems, alcohol dependence, school disengagement and illicit drug use. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether randomisation to a community mobilisation and social marketing intervention reduces the proportion of adolescents who initiate alcohol use before the Australian legal age of 18, and the frequency and amount of underage adolescent alcohol consumption. Method and analysis The study comprises 14 communities matched with 14 non-contiguous communities on socioeconomic status (SES), location and size. One of each pair was randomly allocated to the intervention. Baseline levels of adolescent alcohol use were estimated through school surveys initiated in 2006 (N=8500). Community mobilisation and social marketing interventions were initiated in 2011 to reduce underage alcohol supply and demand. The setting is communities in three Australian states (Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia). Students (N=2576) will complete school surveys in year 8 in 2013 (average age 12). Primary outcomes: (1) lifetime initiation and (2) monthly frequency of alcohol use. Reports of social marketing and family and community alcohol supply sources will also be assessed. Point estimates with 95% CIs will be compared for student alcohol use in intervention and control communities. Changes from 2006 to 2013 will be examined; multilevel modelling will assess whether random assignment of communities to the intervention reduced 2013 alcohol use, after accounting for community level differences. Analyses will also assess whether exposure to social marketing activities increased the intervention target of reducing alcohol supply by parents and community members. Trial registration ACTRN12612000384853. PMID:23355674
He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun
In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.
Kaner, E F; Heather, N; Brodie, J; Lock, C A; McAvoy, B R
BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of an evidence-based health care intervention depends on it being delivered consistently to appropriate patients. Brief alcohol intervention is known to be effective at reducing excessive drinking and its concomitant health and social problems. However, a recent implementation trial reported partial delivery of brief alcohol intervention by general practitioners (GPs) which is likely to have reduced its impact. AIM: To investigate patient-practitioner characteristics influencing brief alcohol intervention in primary care. DESIGN OF STUDY: Cross-sectional analysis of 12,814 completed Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) screening questionnaires. SETTING: Eighty-four GPs who had implemented a brief alcohol intervention programme in a previous trial based in the Northeast of England. METHOD: GPs were requested to screen all adults (aged over 16 years) presenting to their surgery and follow a structured protocol to give a brief intervention (five minutes of advice plus an information booklet) to all 'risk' drinkers. Anonymized carbon copies of the screening questionnaire were collected from all practices after a three-month implementation period. RESULTS: Although AUDIT identified 4080 'risk' drinkers, only 2043 (50%) received brief intervention. Risk drinkers that were most likely to receive brief intervention were males (58%), unemployed (61%), and technically-trained patients (55%). Risk drinkers that were least likely to receive brief intervention were females (44%), students (38%), and university educated patients (46%). Logistic regression modelling showed that patients' risk status was the most influential predictor of brief intervention. Also, GPs' experience of relevant training and longer average practice consultations predicted brief intervention. However, personal characteristics relating to patients and GPs also predicted brief intervention in routine practice. CONCLUSION: Interpersonal factors relating to
as the success of new products, future profitability, or mergers / acquisitions within their industry. One previously noted example is that of Hewlett...Private firms are using prediction markets to help forecast key events, such as the success of new products, future profitability, or mergers ... acquisitions within their industry. Prediction markets also have been popular as an alternative to polls or surveys. The growing popularity of prediction
Diulio, Andrea R; Cero, Ian; Witte, Tracy K; Correia, Christopher J
The present study investigated the role specific types of alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction play in predicting motivation to change alcohol use. Participants were 548 college students mandated to complete a brief intervention following an alcohol-related policy violation. Using hierarchical multiple regression, we tested for the presence of interaction and quadratic effects on baseline data collected prior to the intervention. A significant interaction indicated that the relationship between a respondent's personal consequences and his/her motivation to change differs depending upon the level of concurrent social consequences. Additionally quadratic effects for abuse/dependence symptoms and life satisfaction were found. The quadratic probes suggest that abuse/dependence symptoms and poor life satisfaction are both positively associated with motivation to change for a majority of the sample; however, the nature of these relationships changes for participants with more extreme scores. Results support the utility of using a multidimensional measure of alcohol related problems and assessing non-linear relationships when assessing predictors of motivation to change. The results also suggest that the best strategies for increasing motivation may vary depending on the types of alcohol-related problems and level of life satisfaction the student is experiencing and highlight potential directions for future research.
This paper compares the politics of a failed religious movement to ban alcohol advertising in the 1950s with the politics of a more secular, and partially successful, movement to regulate alcohol marketing in the 1970s and 1980s. Although the contexts of the two marketing control movements were quite different, the continuities were equally striking. Both employed arguments about youth, social order, and the power of mass media.
Khokhar, Rashid H.; Md Sap, Mohd Noor
Data mining is able to uncover hidden patterns and predict future trends and behaviors in financial markets. In this research we approach quantitative time series stock selection as a data mining problem. We present another modification of extraction of weighted fuzzy production rules (WFPRs) from fuzzy decision tree by using proposed similarity-based fuzzy reasoning method called predictive reasoning (PR) method. In proposed predictive reasoning method weight parameter can be assigned to each proposition in the antecedent of a fuzzy production rule (FPR) and certainty factor (CF) to each rule. Certainty factors are calculated by using some important variables like effect of other companies, effect of other local stock market, effect of overall world situation, and effect of political situation from stock market. The predictive FDT has been tested using three data sets including KLSE, NYSE and LSE. The experimental results show that WFPRs rules have high learning accuracy and also better predictive accuracy of stock market time series data.
Tucker, Jalie A; Vuchinich, Rudy E; Rippens, Paula D
This study investigated whether the relative allocation of discretionary monetary expenditures to alcoholic beverages versus savings (presumed to reflect relative preferences for immediate vs. delayed rewards) before quitting abusive drinking predicted natural resolution among untreated problem drinkers. Drinking, life events, income, and expenditures were assessed for the year before resolution and again 1 and 2 years later (N = 50). Compared with those who relapsed, participants who remained resolved at 2 years reported proportionally more pre-resolution discretionary expenditures on savings and less on alcohol. Income and expenditures were similar across groups. The findings support the predictive utility of this functional index of relative reward preferences that operate over variable time horizons and suggest that temporal discounting is an important process in addictive behavior change.
Han, Yoonsun; Grogan-Kaylor, Andrew; Delva, Jorge; Castillo, Marcela
This study estimated marginal associations of parent- and peer-related measures to examine the different patterns of lifetime ever-use and frequency of alcohol consumption among adolescents in Santiago, Chile (N=918). Probit and negative binomial models were applied to predict the probability of ever-use and the average number of drinks consumed in the past 30 days. Results supported the profound role of peer-relationships in the development of youth drinking behavior. Particularly, peer pressure seemed more important in predicting alcohol ever-use than the frequency of drinking. Simultaneously, parents, especially fathers, played a crucial protective role. Policies aimed at preventing various drinking patterns may be more effective if they not only focus on the targeted adolescents, but also reach out to peers and parents. PMID:24489979
Hui, Eddie Chi-Man; Wang, Ziyou
Academia takes interest in cyclicality of real estate market. Compared to various findings on housing cycles, no literature takes insight into the cycles of securitized property markets. To address the issue, a nonlinear model is developed to probe into the characteristics of cycles in global markets (US, UK, Australia, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) over the last 23 years. The findings suggest that (a) cointegrating relationships influence the six markets in the long term and become stronger during bullish markets. (b) The short-term dynamics of each market is more likely to have a regime-switching structure. (c) The cyclical pattern shows differences between securitized property and housing markets, as well as between securitized property and general stock markets. Meanwhile, the cyclical pattern in developed markets is also different from that in developing markets. (d) The duration dependence shows a weak effect of the boom on predicting the occurrence of the upcoming bust. Instead, the magnitude of boom growth plays a significant role in predicting the duration of following bust. (e) The asymmetric analysis brings forward the "paralleling effect" which indicates that the asymmetry in returns is parallel with the movements of r. The methodology shall serve in providing detailed implications on the characters of cycle and duration forecast in securitized property markets for investors and governments.
Bradizza, Clara M.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Vincent, Paula C.; Stasiewicz, Paul R.; Connors, Gerard J.; Mercer, Nicole D.
Few investigators studying alcohol abuse among individuals with a severe mental illness (SMI) have examined predictors of posttreatment alcohol outcomes. In the present study, a multivariate approach based on a theoretical model was used to study the relationship between psychosocial factors and post-treatment-initiation alcohol use. Predictors of…
Mason, W. Alex; Spoth, Richard L.
Adolescent alcohol involvement is associated with numerous negative outcomes, but also appears to have positive correlates, including subjective well-being. Additional research is needed to understand these paradoxical findings. The current study examines alcohol use, adverse alcohol-related (and other substance-related) consequences, and…
Doyne Farmer, J.; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.
Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. double auction market | market microstructure | agent-based models
ARMY RESERVE UNIT MANNING USING MARKET DEMOGRAPHICS by Nathan L. Parker June 2015 Thesis Advisor: Samuel E. Buttrey Co-Advisor: Jonathan...2015 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE PREDICTING U.S. ARMY RESERVE UNIT MANNING USING MARKET DEMOGRAPHICS 5...USING MARKET DEMOGRAPHICS Nathan L. Parker Captain, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy, 2005 Submitted in partial
Bradizza, Clara M.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Vincent, Paula C.; Stasiewicz, Paul R.; Connors, Gerard J.; Mercer, Nicole D.
Few studies examining alcohol abuse among individuals with a severe mental illness (SMI) have examined predictors of post-treatment alcohol outcomes. The present study uses a multivariate approach based on a theoretical model to study the relationship between psychosocial factors and post treatment-initiation alcohol use. Predictors of alcohol use outcomes were examined in 278 individuals diagnosed with a current DSM-IV schizophrenia-spectrum or bipolar disorder and an alcohol use disorder (AUD). At 6-months follow-up after initiating treatment, 144 of 228 available participants (63%) had good clinical outcomes. The results of structural equation modeling indicated that type of pretreatment residential setting was directly related to treatment with participants living in supervised settings (41%) reporting significantly more days of treatment (β = .34, p < .001). In addition, participants with more psychiatric symptoms, assessed by the Brief Symptom Inventory and Structured Clinical Interview for the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, reported significantly fewer treatment days (β = −.20, p < .001). Number of days participants attended treatment was indirectly associated with alcohol use outcomes and was mediated by use of alcohol coping skills, such that more frequent use of alcohol-specific coping skills was associated with less post treatment-initiation alcohol use (β = −.34, p < .001). This study emphasizes the favorable prognosis for alcohol outcomes among treated individuals with a SMI and AUD and the importance of psychosocial interventions, particularly those that result in better alcohol-specific coping skills. PMID:19968390
Balaraman, Sridevi; Schafer, Jordan J.; Tseng, Alexander M.; Wertelecki, Wladimir; Yevtushok, Lyubov; Zymak-Zakutnya, Natalya; Chambers, Christina D.; Miranda, Rajesh C.
Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) are difficult to diagnose since many heavily exposed infants, at risk for intellectual disability, do not exhibit craniofacial dysmorphology or growth deficits. Consequently, there is a need for biomarkers that predict disability. In both animal models and human studies, alcohol exposure during pregnancy resulted in significant alterations in circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) in maternal blood. In the current study, we asked if changes in plasma miRNAs in alcohol-exposed pregnant mothers, either alone or in conjunction with other clinical variables, could predict infant outcomes. Sixty-eight pregnant women at two perinatal care clinics in western Ukraine were recruited into the study. Detailed health and alcohol consumption histories, and 2nd and 3rd trimester blood samples were obtained. Birth cohort infants were assessed by a geneticist and classified as unexposed (UE), heavily prenatally exposed and affected (HEa) or heavily exposed but apparently unaffected (HEua). MiRNAs were assessed in plasma samples using qRT-PCR arrays. ANOVA models identified 11 miRNAs that were all significantly elevated in maternal plasma from the HEa group relative to HEua and UE groups. In a random forest analysis classification model, a combination of high variance miRNAs, smoking history and socioeconomic status classified membership in HEa and UE groups, with a misclassification rate of 13%. The RFA model also classified 17% of the HEua group as UE-like, whereas 83% were HEa-like, at least at one stage of pregnancy. Collectively our data indicate that maternal plasma miRNAs predict infant outcomes, and may be useful to classify difficult-to-diagnose FASD subpopulations. PMID:27828986
King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I.; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin
Background Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. Results 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse. PMID:21853028
Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu
In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.
Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu
In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders’ expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day’s price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately. PMID:27196055
Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu
This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.
Palmer, Rebekka S.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Larimer, Mary E.
The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students’ interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires included measures assessing demographic information, alcohol use and negative consequences, and interest in attending an alcohol program in response to exposure to 1 of 12 systematically varied advertisements. The authors found that approximately 20% of participants across all ad types indicated some level of interest in attending the alcohol program. Students who use alcohol reported more interest in attending when an informational message was used. Of the participants offered food, 41.9% indicated the food offered in the advertisement impacted their interest in attending. Results suggest market segmentation plays a role in developing effective advertisements to recruit different groups of students based on their reported drinking behavior. PMID:16889315
Palmer, Rebekka S; Kilmer, Jason R; Larimer, Mary E
The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires included measures assessing demographic information, alcohol use and negative consequences, and interest in attending an alcohol program in response to exposure to 1 of 12 systematically varied advertisements. The authors found that approximately 20% of participants across all ad types indicated some level of interest in attending the alcohol program. Students who use alcohol reported more interest in attending when an informational message was used. Of the participants offered food, 41.9% indicated the food offered in the advertisement impacted their interest in attending. Results suggest market segmentation plays a role in developing effective advertisements to recruit different groups of students based on their reported drinking behavior.
Lock, C A; Kaner, E F
Health research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. Thus, a dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. Social marketing techniques can be utilized to aid successful dissemination of research findings and to speed the process by which new information reaches practice. Principles of social marketing include manipulating the marketing mix of product, price, place and promotion. This paper describes the development of a marketing approach and the outcomes from a trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of manipulating promotional strategies to disseminate actively a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). The promotional strategies consisted of postal marketing, telemarketing and personal marketing. The study took place in general practices across the Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, one per practice, 321 (52%) took the programme and of those available to use it for 3 months (315), 128 (41%) actively considered doing so, 73 (23%) actually went on to use it. Analysis of the specific impact of the three different promotional strategies revealed that while personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination and implementation strategy, telemarketing was more cost-effective. The findings of our work show that using a marketing approach is promising for conveying research findings to GPs and in particular a focus on promotional strategies can facilitate high levels of uptake and consideration in this target group.
Zywiak, William H.; Neighbors, Charles J.; Martin, Rosemarie A.; Johnson, Jennifer E.; Eaton, Cheryl A.; Rohsenow, Damaris J.
Research with the Important People instrument has demonstrated that social support for abstinence is related to alcohol treatment outcomes but less work has been done on the role of network support in drug treatment outcomes. A drug and alcohol version of the Important People instrument (IPDA) was developed and administered to 141 patients in residential treatment for cocaine dependence. Three components were found, all with acceptable internal consistency: (1) substance involvement of the network, (2) general/treatment support, and (3) support for abstinence. These components and three fundamental network characteristics (size of daily network, size of network, and importance of the most important people) were investigated as correlates of pretreatment and posttreatment alcohol and drug use. The general/treatment support component and network size were inversely related to pretreatment days using drugs while network substance involvement positively correlated with pretreatment drinking frequency. Size of the daily network predicted less drinking, less drug use, and less problem severity during the 6 months after treatment whereas general/treatment support and support for abstinence did not predict outcome. Network substance involvement decreased for patients who stayed abstinent but not for those who later relapsed. Results suggest that increasing the number of people the patient sees daily while replacing substance-involved with abstinent-supportive people may improve treatment outcomes. Treatment programs may use the IPDA to identify clients most likely to benefit from changes in their social networks. PMID:18835677
Zywiak, William H; Neighbors, Charles J; Martin, Rosemarie A; Johnson, Jennifer E; Eaton, Cheryl A; Rohsenow, Damaris J
Research with the Important People instrument has shown that social support for abstinence is related to alcohol treatment outcomes, but less work has been done on the role of network support in drug treatment outcomes. A drug and alcohol version of the Important People instrument (IPDA) was developed and administered to 141 patients in residential treatment for cocaine dependence. Three components were found, all with acceptable internal consistency: (a) substance involvement of the network, (b) general/treatment support, and (c) support for abstinence. These components and three fundamental network characteristics (size of daily network, size of network, and importance of the most important people) were investigated as correlates of pretreatment and posttreatment alcohol and drug use. The general/treatment support component and network size were inversely related to pretreatment days using drugs, whereas network substance involvement positively correlated with pretreatment drinking frequency. Size of the daily network predicted less drinking, less drug use, and less problem severity during the 6 months after treatment, whereas general/treatment support and support for abstinence did not predict outcome. Network substance involvement decreased for patients who stayed abstinent but not for those who later relapsed. Results suggest that increasing the number of people the patient sees daily while replacing substance-involved with abstinent-supportive people may improve treatment outcomes. Treatment programs may use the IPDA to identify clients most likely to benefit from changes in their social networks.
Viacava, Keitiline R; Weydmann, Gibson J; de Vasconcelos, Mailton F; Jaboinski, Juliana; Batista, Graziele D; de Almeida, Rosa Maria M; Bizarro, Lisiane
The tactical use of visuoperceptual content in marketing may encourage impulsive consumption of unhealthy products. In this study, the application of visuoperceptual content was compared in advertisements used by industries of tobacco, alcohol and food. The aim was to ascertain whether similarities exist in the strategies used as variables for the selection of commercial stimuli, such as color, position and size. Scion Image and Corel Draw Graphics Suite software were used to analyze the content of a non-probabilistic sample of advertising images (N = 150). Differences were identified in the use of the colors green (p = 0.04) and red (p = 0.01), but not in the use of the color blue (p = 0.64), suggesting that induction of feelings of pleasantness resulting from the use of the color blue may be associated with the advertising in the alcohol and tobacco industries. Regarding the position of the commercial stimuli, a predominance of the use of quadrants 'C' (p = 0.00) and 'D' (p = 0.01) was found in all three industries, indicating a similar use of areas perceived as being 'heavier'. As to the size, 78% of advertisements placed the commercial stimuli within a range of 0-25% of the total image. The results showed some similarities in the use of visuoperceptual content in advertisements for tobacco, alcohol and food, especially between tobacco and alcohol. The article offers a convergence analysis of these three industries altogether, providing additional subsidies for the formulation of protection policies.
Charlet, Katrin; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Richter, Anne; Naundorf, Karina; Dornhof, Lina; Weinfurtner, Christopher E J; König, Friederike; Walaszek, Bernadeta; Schubert, Florian; Müller, Christian A; Gutwinski, Stefan; Seissinger, Annette; Schmitz, Lioba; Walter, Henrik; Beck, Anne; Gallinat, Jürgen; Kiefer, Falk; Heinz, Andreas
Neuropsychological studies reported decoding deficits of emotional facial expressions in alcohol-dependent patients, and imaging studies revealed reduced prefrontal and limbic activation during emotional face processing. However, it remains unclear whether this reduced neural activation is mediated by alcohol-associated volume reductions and whether it interacts with treatment outcome. We combined analyses of neural activation during an aversive face-cue-comparison task and local gray matter volumes (GM) using Biological Parametric Mapping in 33 detoxified alcohol-dependent patients and 33 matched healthy controls. Alcoholics displayed reduced activation toward aversive faces-neutral shapes in bilateral fusiform gyrus [FG; Brodmann areas (BA) 18/19], right middle frontal gyrus (BA46/47), right inferior parietal gyrus (BA7) and left cerebellum compared with controls, which were explained by GM differences (except for cerebellum). Enhanced functional activation in patients versus controls was found in left rostral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and medial frontal gyrus (BA10/11), even after GM reduction control. Increased ACC activation correlated significantly with less (previous) lifetime alcohol intake [Lifetime Drinking History (LDH)], longer abstinence and less subsequent binge drinking in patients. High LDH appear to impair treatment outcome via its neurotoxicity on ACC integrity. Thus, high activation of the rostral ACC elicited by affective faces appears to be a resilience factor predicting better treatment outcome. Although no group differences were found, increased FG activation correlated with patients' higher LDH. Because high LDH correlated with worse task performance for facial stimuli in patients, elevated activation in the fusiform 'face' area may reflect inefficient compensatory activation. Therapeutic interventions (e.g. emotion evaluation training) may enable patients to cope with social stress and to decrease relapses after detoxification.
social responsibility (Corporate Executive Board, 2006). Table 2. Experiences of Early Adopters (From Malone, 2004 & Kiviat, 2004) Application...the likelihood that an event will occur and on a specific date. 14 Social Responsibility BP BP set up an internal market to reduce the oil...than official forecast. Product Development Eli Lilly NA NA NA NA NA General Forecasting Google NA NA NA NA NA Social Responsibility BP
Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier
We show that the Chinese stock markets are quite different and decoupled from Western markets (which include Tokyo). We document a well-developed log-periodic power-law antibubble in China's stock market, which started in August 2001. We argue that the current stock market antibubble is sustained by a contemporary active unsustainable real-estate bubble in China. The characteristic parameters of the antibubble have exhibited remarkable stability over one year (October 2002-October 2003). Many tests, including predictability over different horizons and time periods, confirm the high significance of the antibubble detection. Based on an analysis including data up to 2003/10/28, we have predicted that the Chinese stock market will stop its negative trend around the end of 2003 and start going up, appreciating by at least 25% in the following 6 months. We present a partial assessment of this prediction at the time of revision of this manuscript (early January 2004). Notwithstanding the immature nature of the Chinese equity market and the strong influence of government policy, we have found maybe even stronger imprints of herding than in other mature markets. This is maybe due indeed to the immaturity of the Chinese market which seems to attract short-term investors more interested in fast gains than in long-term investments, thus promoting speculative herding.
Corcoran, K J; Segrist, D J
This study was designed to look at the influence of gender, alcohol expectancies, and fear of negative evaluation on beverage selection. Participants tasted pineapple juice, tonic water, beer, and diet cola and were then asked which they would prefer when presented with each of all possible alternative pairings. Results indicated no effect on beer selection due to alcohol expectancies, but fear of negative evaluation and gender interacted to predict beer selection. Post hoc analyses indicated that women with high levels of fear of negative evaluation selected beer significantly less often than any of the other groups. Results are discussed in terms of the importance of considering the interaction of "initial conditions" individuals bring to a situation, which serves as a filter for environmental information.
Gaikwad, Nitin Rangrao; Gupta, Sudhir Jagdishprasad; Samarth, Amol Rajendra; Sankalecha, Tushar Hiralal
Background The aim of the study was to determine the utility of handgrip dynamometry (HGD) in predicting short term mortality and complications in alcoholic liver disease. Methods Patients with alcoholic liver disease were included and nutritional assessment was done using the Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), HGD and other conventional parameters. Mortality rates and complications were compared to nutritional status. Results 80 patients were included in the study. Mean age of patients was 43.06±10.03 years. 69 patients survived and 11 patients died within the 3 month study duration. Handgrip strength (HGS) was higher in SGA A (28.76±5.48 kg) than SGA B (22.43±4.95 kg) and SGA C (16.78±3.83 kg) (P=<0.001). Number of complications including spontaneous bacterial Peritonitis, gastrointestinal bleeding and encephalopathy in SGA C group were 66.66%, in SGA B 20.75% and SGA A 10%. Mean HGS was significantly higher in the survivors (24.23±5.86) compared to non-survivors (18.04±4.82) (P=0.0011). There was a strong negative correlation between the HGS and Child-Pugh score (P=<0.0012). Multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess the risk factors for death showed handgrip to be in the suggestive significance range (P=0.072). The sensitivity of HGS was 88.41% in predicting short term mortality. Conclusions HGS correlates with Child-Pugh score in predicting short term mortality. HGD is a simple, inexpensive and sensitive tool for assessing the nutritional status in alcoholic liver disease and can reliably predict its complications and survival. PMID:27708519
Tsuchiya, Yooko; Yoshii, Noriyuki; Iwatsubo, Tetsushiro
Since heat storage technology contributes greatly to the effective use of energy, we are attempting to develop latent heat storage materials. If computer simulations enable the estimation of material properties prior to experiments, they will provide us with very effective tools for the development of new materials. We use molecular dynamics calculations to predict the melting points and latent heats of fusion, which are crucial thermal properties for evaluating the suitability of heat-storage materials. As the object of calculation, poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) was chosen, because polymer materials are effective in that they can be made to cover all temperature ranges by changing the molecular weight. The melting points were determined from the volume change, and the latent heats of fusion were determined from the internal energy. As for these calculations, it was ascertained that these thermal properties were suitable values in comparison with the results of actual calorimetry. From the comparative calculation of the polymer consistent force field (PCFF) and optimized potentials for liquid simulations (OPLS) force field, it was shown that the intermolecular potential could be simplified. Moreover, the stability of the structural isomer of PVA and the state of the hydrogen bond were evaluated, because a strong intermolecular bond leads to structural stability and a high melting temperature.
Berking, Matthias; Margraf, Matthias; Ebert, David; Wupperman, Peggilee; Hofmann, Stefan G.; Junghanns, Klaus
Objective: As emotion regulation is widely considered to be a primary motive in the misuse of alcohol, our aim in the study was to investigate whether deficits in adaptive emotion-regulation skills maintain alcohol dependence (AD). Method: A prospective study investigated whether emotion-regulation skills were associated with AD and whether these…
Mascia, George V.; And Others
The authors attempt to locate predictor variables associated with the outcome of alcoholic treatment programs. Muscia's study focuses on the predictive potential of: (1) response to a GSR conditioning procedure; (2) several personality variables; and (3) age and IQ measures. Nine variables, reflecting diverse perspectives, were selected as a basis…
Li, Jie; Ren, Da; Feng, Xu; Zhang, Yongjie
In this paper, we build a network of listed companies in the Chinese stock market based on common shareholding data from 2003 to 2013. We analyze the evolution of topological characteristics of the network (e.g., average degree, diameter, average path length and clustering coefficient) with respect to the time sequence. Additionally, we consider the economic implications of topological characteristic changes on market volatility and use them to make future predictions. Our study finds that the network diameter significantly predicts volatility. After adding control variables used in traditional financial studies (volume, turnover and previous volatility), network topology still significantly influences volatility and improves the predictive ability of the model.
Prince, Mark A.; Connors, Gerard J.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Dearing, Ronda L.
While past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. 65 treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pre-treatment, during treatment, and post-treatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients’ and therapists’ mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. 1- through 4- class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4 months posttreatment. 3-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment. PMID:26999350
Prince, Mark A; Connors, Gerard J; Maisto, Stephen A; Dearing, Ronda L
Although past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. Sixty-five treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pretreatment, during treatment, and posttreatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients' and therapists' mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. One- through 4-class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4-months posttreatment. Three-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment.
Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan
Predictions markets are marketplaces for trading contracts with payoffs that depend on the outcome of future events. Popular examples are markets on the outcome of presidential elections, where contracts pay $1 if a specific candidate wins the election and $0 if someone else wins. Contract prices on prediction markets can be interpreted as forecasts regarding the outcome of future events. Further attractive properties include the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to offer incentives for the acquisition of information. It has been argued that these properties might be valuable in the context of scientific research. In this review, we give an overview of key properties of prediction markets and discuss potential benefits for science. To illustrate these benefits for biomedical research, we discuss an example application in the context of decision making in research on the genetics of diseases. Moreover, some potential practical problems of prediction market application in science are discussed, and solutions are outlined.
Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.
Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan  to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications. MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).
Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar
We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people’s actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www. PMID:22829871
Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar
We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.
Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.
Magura, Stephen; Staines, Graham; Kosanke, Nicole; Rosenblum, Andrew; Foote, Jeffrey; DeLuca, Alexander; Bali, Priti
This study examined the predictive validity of the ASAM Patient Placement Criteria for matching alcoholism patients to recommended levels of care. A cohort of 248 patients newly admitted to inpatient rehabilitation, intensive outpatient, or regular outpatient care was evaluated using both a computerized algorithm and a clinical evaluation protocol to determine whether they were naturalistically matched or mismatched to care. Outcomes were assessed three months after intake. One common type of undertreatment (ie, receiving regular outpatient care when intensive outpatient care was recommended) predicted poorer drinking outcomes as compared with matched treatment, independent of actual level of care received. Overtreatment did not improve outcomes. There also was a trend for better outcomes with residential vs. intensive outpatient treatment, independent of matching. Results were robust for both methods of assessment. Corroboration by more research is needed, but the ASAM Criteria show promise for reducing both detrimental undertreatment and cost-inefficient overtreatment.
Ducci, F; Enoch, M-A; Hodgkinson, C; Xu, K; Catena, M; Robin, R W; Goldman, D
Women who have experienced childhood sexual abuse (CSA) have an increased risk of alcoholism and antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). Among male subjects, a functional polymorphism (MAOA-LPR, monoamine oxidase A linked polymorphic region) in the promoter region of the monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA) appears to moderate the effect of childhood maltreatment on antisocial behavior. Our aim was to test whether MAOA-LPR influences the impact of CSA on alcoholism and ASPD in a sample of 291 women, 50% of whom have experienced CSA; we also tested whether haplotypes covering the region where both MAOA and monoamine oxidase B (MAOB) genes are located predict risk of alcoholism and ASPD better than the MAOA-LPR locus alone. Participants included 168 alcoholics (39 with ASPD (antisocial alcoholics) and 123 controls (no alcoholics, no ASPD). Antisocial behavior was also modeled as a continuous trait: ASPD symptoms count. The MAOA-LPR low activity allele was associated with alcoholism (P=0.005), particularly antisocial alcoholism (P=0.00009), only among sexually abused subjects. Sexually abused women who were homozygous for the low activity allele had higher rates of alcoholism and ASPD, and more ASPD symptoms, than abused women homozygous for the high activity allele. Heterozygous women displayed an intermediate risk pattern. In contrast, there was no relationship between alcoholism/antisocial behavior and MAOA-LPR genotype among non-abused women. The MAOA-LPR low activity allele was found on three different haplotypes. The most abundant MAOA haplotype containing the MAOA-LPR low activity allele was found in excess among alcoholics (P=0.008) and antisocial alcoholics (P=0.001). Finally, a MAOB haplotype, which we termed haplotype C, was significantly associated with alcoholism (P=0.006), and to a lesser extent with antisocial alcoholism (P=0.03). In conclusions, MAOA seems to moderate the impact of childhood trauma on adult psychopathology in female subjects in the same way
Gilbertson, Troy A.
This randomized experiment examines the effects of contextual information on undergraduate college student's levels of alcohol-related incident guardianship at college parties. The research is conceptualized using routine activities theory and the theory of planned behavior. The experiment examines attitudinal variations about heavy drinking…
Mills, Britain A; Caetano, Raul; Bernstein, Ira H
This study compares the demographic predictors of items assessing attitudes towards drinking across Hispanic national groups. Data were from the 2006 Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS), which used a multistage cluster sample design to interview 5,224 individuals randomly selected from the household population in Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Houston, and Los Angeles. Predictive invariance of demographic predictors of alcohol attitudes over four Hispanic national groups (Puerto Rican, Cuban, Mexican, and South/Central Americans) was examined using multiple-group seemingly unrelated probit regression. The analyses examined whether the influence of various demographic predictors varied across the Hispanic national groups in their regression coefficients, item intercepts, and error correlations. The hypothesis of predictive invariance was supported. Hispanic groups did not differ in how demographic predictors related to individual attitudinal items (regression slopes were invariant). In addition, the groups did not differ in attitudinal endorsement rates once demographic covariates were taken into account (item intercepts were invariant). Although Hispanic groups have different attitudes about alcohol, the influence of multiple demographic characteristics on alcohol attitudes operates similarly across Hispanic groups. Future models of drinking behavior in adult Hispanics need not posit moderating effects of group on the relation between these background characteristics and attitudes.
Ribadier, Aurélien; Dorard, Géraldine; Varescon, Isabelle
This study investigated personality traits and defense styles in order to determine clinical specificities and predictive factors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) in women. A female sample, composed of AUD outpatients (n = 48) and a control group (n = 50), completed a sociodemographic self-report and questionnaires assessing personality traits (BFI), defense mechanisms and defense styles (DSQ-40). Comparative and correlational analyses, as well as univariate and multivariate logistic regressions, were performed. AUD women presented with higher neuroticism and lower extraversion and conscientiousness. They used less mature and more neurotic and immature defense styles than the control group. Concerning personality traits, high neuroticism and lower conscientiousness were predictive of AUD, as well as low mature, high neurotic, and immature defense styles. Including personality traits and defense styles in a logistic model, high neuroticism was the only AUD predictive factor. AUD women presented clinical specificities and predictive factors in personality traits and defense styles that must be taken into account in AUD studies. Implications for specific treatment for women are discussed.
Hartanto, Dhoni; Mustain, Asalil; Nugroho, Febry Dwi
The vapor-liquid equilibria for eight systems of alcohols + glycerol at 101.325 kPa have been predicted in this study using UNIFAC and Modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) group contribution methods. The investigated alcohols were methanol, ethanol, 1-propanol, 2-propanol, 1-butanol, 2-butanol, 2-methyl-1-propanol and 2-methyl-2-propanol. In order to study the accuracy of both contribution methods, the predicted data obtained from both approaches were compared to the experimental data from the literature. The prediction accuracy using modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) give better results compared to the UNIFAC method for (ethanol, 1-propanol, 2-propanol and 1-butanol) + glycerol but UNIFAC method show better accuracy for methanol + glycerol system. In addition, the influences of carbon chain length on the phase behaviours of alcohol + glycerol systems were also discussed as well.
Van Ryzin, Mark J; DeLay, Dawn; Dishion, Thomas J
Although substance use has traditionally been linked to peer deviance, a parallel literature has explored the influence of peer social status (being "well-liked"). This literature hypothesizes that adolescents with higher status will anticipate shifts in social norms and modify their behavior earlier and/or more substantially than lower-status students. As substance use becomes more socially acceptable during early-to-mid-adolescence, higher status youth are hypothesized to reflect this shift in norms by accelerating their use more rapidly than lower status youth. Although some evidence exists to support this hypothesis, it has never been evaluated in conjunction with the opposing hypothesis (i.e., that substance use contributes to elevated peer status). In this study, we evaluated reciprocal links between peer status and substance use (i.e., alcohol and tobacco) using 3years of data from 8 middle schools in the Pacific Northwest. Social network analysis enabled us to model standard network effects along with unique effects for the influence of the network on behavior (i.e., increased substance use as a result of being well-liked) and the influence of behavior on the network (i.e., increased status as a result of substance use). Our results indicated significant bidirectional effects for alcohol use but no significant effects for tobacco use. In other words, being well-liked significantly predicted alcohol use and vice versa, but these processes were not significant for tobacco use. Prevention efforts should consider the dynamics of peer status and peer norms in adolescence with the goal of preventing escalations in problem behavior that can compromise future adjustment.
Van Ryzin, Mark J.; DeLay, Dawn; Dishion, Thomas J.
Although substance use has traditionally been linked to peer deviance, a parallel literature has explored the influence of peer social status (being “well-liked”). This literature hypothesizes that adolescents with higher status will anticipate shifts in social norms and modify their behavior earlier and/or more substantially than lower-status students. As substance use becomes more socially acceptable during early-to-mid-adolescence, higher status youth are hypothesized to reflect this shift in norms by accelerating their use. Although some evidence exists to support this hypothesis, it has never been evaluated in conjunction with the opposing hypothesis (i.e., that substance use contributes to elevated peer status). In this study, we evaluated reciprocal links between peer status and substance use (i.e., alcohol and tobacco) using 3 years of data from a sample of adolescents attending 8 middle schools in the Pacific Northwest. Social network analysis enabled us to model standard network effects along with unique effects for the influence of the network on behavior (i.e., increased substance use as a result of being well-liked) and the influence of behavior on the network (i.e., increased status as a result of substance use). Our results indicated significant bidirectional effects for alcohol use but no significant effects for tobacco use. In other words, being well-liked significantly predicted alcohol use and vice versa, but these processes were not significant for tobacco use. Prevention efforts should consider the dynamics of peer status and peer norms in adolescence with the goal of preventing escalations in problem behavior that can compromise future adjustment. PMID:26547042
Jolly, Richard Donald
Leveraging the knowledge of an organization is an ongoing challenge that has given rise to the field of knowledge management. Yet, despite spending enormous sums of organizational resources on Information Technology (IT) systems, executives recognize there is much more knowledge to harvest. Prediction markets are emerging as one tool to help…
Birkley, Erica L.; Giancola, Peter R.; Lance, Charles E.
Background It is well established that individual difference factors modulate aggression under the acute effects of alcohol. In this investigation, we tested the hypothesis that one core dimension of psychopathy, Impulsive Antisociality, would modulate intoxicated aggression, whereas another dimension, Fearless Dominance, would not. Methods Participants were 516 young social drinkers (253 men and 263 women). Psychopathy was measured using the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI; Lilienfeld and Andrews, 1996). Following the consumption of either an alcohol or a placebo beverage, aggression was measured with a task in which participants administered and received electric shocks to/from a fictitious opponent under the guise of a competitive reaction-time task. Results Hierarchical regression analyses supported our hypothesis: Impulsive Antisociality predicted aggression under alcohol, whereas Fearless Dominance did not. Conclusions Persons who tend to endorse antisocial and impulsive externalizing behaviors appear to be at greater risk for aggression under the acute influence of alcohol. PMID:22959485
Palmer, Rebekka S.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Larimer, Mary E.
The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires…
Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based
Armenta, Brian E.; Hautala, Dane S.; Whitbeck, Les B.
In the present study, we considered the utility of the prototype/willingness model in predicting alcohol use among North-American Indigenous adolescents. Specifically, using longitudinal data, we examined the associations among subjective drinking norms, positive drinker prototypes, drinking expectations (as a proxy of drinking willingness), and…
Cooke, Richard; Dahdah, Mary; Norman, Paul; French, David P
This study aimed to quantify correlations between theory of planned behaviour (TPB) variables and (i) intentions to consume alcohol and (ii) alcohol consumption. Systematic literature searches identified 40 eligible studies that were meta-analysed. Three moderator analyses were conducted: pattern of consumption, gender of participants and age of participants. Across studies, intentions had the strongest relationship with attitudes (r+ = .62), followed by subjective norms (r+ = .47) and perceived behavioural control (PBC; r+ = .31). Self-efficacy (SE) had a stronger relationship with intentions (r+ = .48) compared with perceived control (PC; r+ = -.10). Intention had the strongest relationship with alcohol consumption (r+ = .54), followed by SE (r+ = .41). In contrast, PBC and PC had negative relationships with alcohol consumption (r+ = -.05 and -.13, respectively). All moderators affected TPB relationships. Patterns of consumption with clear definitions had stronger TPB relations, females reported stronger attitude-intention relations than males, and adults reported stronger attitude-intention and SE-intention relations than adolescents. Recommendations for future research include targeting attitudes and intentions in interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, using clear definitions of alcohol consumption in TPB items to improve prediction and assessing SE when investigating risk behaviours.
Barmpagianni, Effrosyni; Travlos, Antonios; Kalokairinou, Athina; Sachlas, Athanasios; Zyga, Sofia
Purpose of this study is to explore those factors which affect the health of students in postadolescent age, focusing on smoking and alcohol use, especially in regard to ways of predicting adoption of this behavior and its frequency to detect future users of tobacco and alcohol use but also high-risk groups, i.e. those people who are led to abuses. On the basis of the research part is the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the axes of which are to be investigated. Specifically, the factors evaluated, except for population parameters, behavioral attitudes, i.e. attitudes towards the behavior of tobacco use and alcohol regulations subjective perceptions and perceptions of control, perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy. Intention is explored to continue or start using tobacco and alcohol in the future and evaluate the behavior. The sample consisted of 138 students of postadolescent age, 18-25 years of both sexes, all of the University of Peloponnese and the Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Department of Sparta, Greece. The results of a series of statistical analysis, via SPSS 21.0 statistical program revealed the predictive power of perceived behavioral control and subjective norms to the intention of interpreting 64% of the variance of the latter, of the attitudes toward alcohol in relation to intention that interpret 69% of the variance, of the normative beliefs toward smoking with 69% range of interpretation to the dependent variable, of the perceived behavioral control of smoking with 72% and of the attitudes toward smoking with 77% of interpretation. The results demonstrate the significance and application in universities and technological educational institutes appropriate primary preventive interventions for students nonusers of tobacco and alcohol and appropriate programs of secondary and tertiary prevention in heavy users of tobacco and alcohol use and high-risk individual.
Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.
We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202
Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M
We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.
Spillane, Nichea S.; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Jackson, Kristina M.
Studies on adolescent drinking have not always been able to distinguish between initiation and escalation of drinking, because many studies include samples in which initiation has already occurred; hence initiation and escalation are often confounded. The present study draws from a dual-process theoretical framework to investigate: if changes in the likelihood of drinking initiation and escalation are predicted by a tendency towards rash action when experiencing positive and negative emotions (positive and negative urgency); and whether trait positive and negative affect moderate such effects. Alcohol naïve adolescents (n=944; age: M=12.16, SD=.96; 52% female) completed 6 semi-annual assessments of trait urgency and affect (wave-1) and alcohol use (waves 2–6). A two-part random-effects model was used to estimate changes in the likelihood of any alcohol use vs. escalation in the volume of use amongst initiators. Main effects suggest a significant association between positive affect and change in level of alcohol use amongst initiators, such that lower positive affect predicted increased alcohol involvement. This main effect was qualified by a significant interaction between positive urgency and positive affect predicting changes in the escalation of drinking, such that the effect of positive urgency was augmented for those high on trait positive affect, though only at extremely high levels of positive affect. Results suggest risk factors in the development of drinking depend on whether initiation or escalation is investigated. A more nuanced understanding of the early developmental phases of alcohol involvement can inform prevention and intervention efforts. PMID:27031086
Lopez-Vergara, Hector I; Spillane, Nichea S; Merrill, Jennifer E; Jackson, Kristina M
Studies on adolescent drinking have not always been able to distinguish between initiation and escalation of drinking, because many studies include samples in which initiation has already occurred; hence, initiation and escalation are often confounded. The present study draws from a dual-process theoretical framework to investigate: if changes in the likelihood of drinking initiation and escalation are predicted by a tendency toward rash action when experiencing positive and negative emotions (positive and negative urgency) and whether trait positive and negative affect moderate such effects. Alcohol naïve adolescents (n = 944; age M = 12.16, SD = .96; 52% female) completed 6 semiannual assessments of trait urgency and affect (Wave 1) and alcohol use (Waves 2-6). A 2-part random-effects model was used to estimate changes in the likelihood of any alcohol use versus escalation in the volume of use among initiators. Main effects suggest a significant association between positive affect and change in level of alcohol use among initiators, such that lower positive affect predicted increased alcohol involvement. This main effect was qualified by a significant interaction between positive urgency and positive affect predicting changes in the escalation of drinking, such that the effect of positive urgency was augmented for those high on trait positive affect, though only at extremely high levels of positive affect. Results suggest risk factors in the development of drinking depend on whether initiation or escalation is investigated. A more nuanced understanding of the early developmental phases of alcohol involvement can inform prevention and intervention efforts. (PsycINFO Database Record
Michelena, Javier; Altamirano, José; Abraldes, Juan G.; Affò, Silvia; Morales-Ibanez, Oriol; Sancho-Bru, Pau; Dominguez, Marlene; García-Pagán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Javier; Arroyo, Vicente; Ginès, Pere; Louvet, Alexandre; Mathurin, Philippe; Mehal, Wajahat Z.; Caballería, Juan; Bataller, Ramón
Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) frequently progresses to multiple organ failure (MOF) and death. However, the driving factors are largely unknown. At admission, patients with AH often show criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) even in the absence of an infection. We hypothesize that the presence of SIRS may predispose to MOF and death. To test this hypothesis, we studied a cohort including 162 patients with biopsy-proven AH. The presence of SIRS and infections was assessed in all patients, and multivariate analyses identified variables independently associated with MOF and 90-day mortality. At admission, 32 (19.8%) patients were diagnosed with a bacterial infection, while 75 (46.3%) fulfilled SIRS criteria; 58 patients (35.8%) developed MOF during hospitalization. Short-term mortality was significantly higher among patients who developed MOF (62.1% versus 3.8%, P <0.001). The presence of SIRS was a major predictor of MOF (odds ratio = 2.69, P=0.025) and strongly correlated with mortality. Importantly, the course of patients with SIRS with and without infection was similar in terms of MOF development and short-term mortality. Finally, we sought to identify serum markers that differentiate SIRS with and without infection. We studied serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lipopolysaccharide at admission. All of them predicted mortality. Procalcitonin, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum levels identified those patients with SIRS and infection. Lipopolysaccharide serum levels predicted MOF and the response to prednisolone. Conclusion In the presence or absence of infections, SIRS is a major determinant of MOF and mortality in AH, and the mechanisms involved in the development of SIRS should be investigated; procalcitonin serum levels can help to identify patients with infection, and lipopolysaccharide levels may help to predict mortality and the response to steroids. PMID:25761863
Langberg, Joshua M; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Kipperman, Kristen L; Molitor, Stephen J; Eddy, Laura D
The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether alcohol consumption longitudinally predicts the adjustment, overall functioning, and grade point average (GPA) of college students with ADHD and to determine whether self-report of executive functioning (EF) mediates these relationships. Sixty-two college students comprehensively diagnosed with ADHD completed ratings at the beginning and end of the school year. Regression analyses revealed that alcohol consumption rated at the beginning of the year significantly predicted self-report of adjustment and overall impairment at the end of the year, above and beyond ADHD symptoms and baseline levels of adjustment/impairment but did not predict GPA. Exploratory multiple mediator analyses suggest that alcohol use impacts impairment primarily through EF deficits in self-motivation. EF deficits in the motivation to refrain from pursuing immediately rewarding behaviors in order to work toward long-term goals appear to be particularly important in understanding why college students with ADHD who consume alcohol have a higher likelihood of experiencing significant negative outcomes. The implications of these findings for the prevention of the negative functional outcomes often experienced by college students with ADHD are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record
Vaa, Brianna E.; Asrani, Sumeet K.; Dunn, Winston; Kamath, Patrick S.; Shah, Vijay H.
OBJECTIVE: To compare the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) with the modified model including sodium (MELDNa) for predicting 180-day mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and determine the subset in whom serum sodium may enhance 180-day mortality prediction. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We examined 26 patients with AH enrolled in a prospective trial between June 1, 2004, and June 30, 2007, at Mayo Clinic. Logistic regression analysis was done to assess the effect of MELD and MELDNa scores on 180-day mortality. The C statistic was derived to compare MELD with MELDNa in patients with and without ascites. RESULTS: MELD (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.47; P=.007; C statistic, 0.81) and MELDNa (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.05-1.56; P=.008; C statistic, 0.78) were significant predictors of 180-day mortality in patients with AH. A MELD score of 27.0 and a MELDNa score of 28.0 had sensitivity of 76.5% and 87.5% and specificity of 64.9% and 52.5%, respectively. In patients with AH and ascites, MELDNa (OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.22-36.68; P=.008; C statistic, 0.97) was a better predictor of 180-day mortality than MELD (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.07-2.12; P=.006; C statistic, 0.90). A MELD score of 29.0 and a MELDNa score of 34.0 had sensitivity of 85.7% and 83.3% and specificity of 31.0% and 16.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: MELD and MELDNa were similar predictors of 180-day mortality; however, MELDNa was a better predictor of mortality than MELD in patients with ascites. Hyponatremia in patients with AH without ascites is not a predictor of mortality because it may have a dilutional basis secondary to excessive intake of low-osmolar alcohol. PMID:21193654
Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro
Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.
is a fair characterization to say that prediction markets may be very straightforward in basic principle , but in practice the devil is certainly in...experimental economics and game theory /mechanism design. He also has research interests in strategic and competitive dynamics, particularly applied to...School in 1988, Dr. Gates work as an economist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA. Dr. Gates’ research interests include game theory
The Combination of Marketed Antagonists of α1b-Adrenergic and 5-HT2A Receptors Inhibits Behavioral Sensitization and Preference to Alcohol in Mice: A Promising Approach for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence.
Trovero, Fabrice; David, Sabrina; Bernard, Philippe; Puech, Alain; Bizot, Jean-Charles; Tassin, Jean-Pol
Alcohol-dependence is a chronic disease with a dramatic and expensive social impact. Previous studies have indicated that the blockade of two monoaminergic receptors, α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A, could inhibit the development of behavioral sensitization to drugs of abuse, a hallmark of drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviors in rodents. Here, in order to develop a potential therapeutic treatment of alcohol dependence in humans, we have blocked these two monoaminergic receptors by a combination of antagonists already approved by Health Agencies. We show that the association of ifenprodil (1 mg/kg) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) (α1-adrenergic and 5-HT2 receptor antagonists marketed as Vadilex ® and Periactine ® in France, respectively) blocks behavioral sensitization to amphetamine in C57Bl6 mice and to alcohol in DBA2 mice. Moreover, this combination of antagonists inhibits alcohol intake in mice habituated to alcohol (10% v/v) and reverses their alcohol preference. Finally, in order to verify that the effect of ifenprodil was not due to its anti-NMDA receptors property, we have shown that a combination of prazosin (0.5 mg/kg, an α1b-adrenergic antagonist, Mini-Press ® in France) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) could also reverse alcohol preference. Altogether these findings strongly suggest that combined prazosin and cyproheptadine could be efficient as a therapy to treat alcoholism in humans. Finally, because α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A receptors blockade also inhibits behavioral sensitization to psychostimulants, opioids and tobacco, it cannot be excluded that this combination will exhibit some efficacy in the treatment of addiction to other abused drugs.
The Combination of Marketed Antagonists of α1b-Adrenergic and 5-HT2A Receptors Inhibits Behavioral Sensitization and Preference to Alcohol in Mice: A Promising Approach for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence
Trovero, Fabrice; David, Sabrina; Bernard, Philippe; Puech, Alain; Bizot, Jean-Charles; Tassin, Jean-Pol
Alcohol-dependence is a chronic disease with a dramatic and expensive social impact. Previous studies have indicated that the blockade of two monoaminergic receptors, α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A, could inhibit the development of behavioral sensitization to drugs of abuse, a hallmark of drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviors in rodents. Here, in order to develop a potential therapeutic treatment of alcohol dependence in humans, we have blocked these two monoaminergic receptors by a combination of antagonists already approved by Health Agencies. We show that the association of ifenprodil (1 mg/kg) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) (α1-adrenergic and 5-HT2 receptor antagonists marketed as Vadilex ® and Periactine ® in France, respectively) blocks behavioral sensitization to amphetamine in C57Bl6 mice and to alcohol in DBA2 mice. Moreover, this combination of antagonists inhibits alcohol intake in mice habituated to alcohol (10% v/v) and reverses their alcohol preference. Finally, in order to verify that the effect of ifenprodil was not due to its anti-NMDA receptors property, we have shown that a combination of prazosin (0.5 mg/kg, an α1b-adrenergic antagonist, Mini-Press ® in France) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) could also reverse alcohol preference. Altogether these findings strongly suggest that combined prazosin and cyproheptadine could be efficient as a therapy to treat alcoholism in humans. Finally, because α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A receptors blockade also inhibits behavioral sensitization to psychostimulants, opioids and tobacco, it cannot be excluded that this combination will exhibit some efficacy in the treatment of addiction to other abused drugs. PMID:26968030
Chambers, David W
There is not enough marketing of dentistry; but there certainly is too much selling of poor quality service that is being passed off as dentistry. The marketing concept makes the patient and the patients' needs the ultimate criteria of marketing efforts. Myths and good practices for effective marketing that will promote oral health are described under the traditional four "Ps" categories of "product" (best dental care), "place" (availability), "promotion" (advertising and other forms of making patients aware of available services and how to use them), and "price" (the total cost to patients of receiving care).
Larimer, Mary E; Turner, Aaron P; Mallett, Kimberly A; Geisner, Irene Markman
The authors examined the relation between Greek students' perceptions of alcohol consumption in their pledge classes (descriptive norms) and acceptability of drinking (injunctive norms) and the ability of these normative influences to predict drinking behavior, alcohol-related negative consequences, and symptoms of alcohol dependence concurrently and prospectively over 1 year. Participants were 279 men and 303 women recruited from incoming pledge classes of 12 fraternities and 6 sororities, who completed measures of descriptive and injunctive norms, alcohol use, and consequences. Results revealed that descriptive norms significantly predicted concurrent drinking. After controlling for baseline drinking, injunctive norms significantly predicted drinking 1 year later and predicted alcohol-related consequences and dependency symptoms at baseline and follow-up. The potential to incorporate injunctive norms into preventive interventions is discussed.
Larimer, Mary E.; Turner, Aaron P.; Mallett, Kimberly A.; Geisner, Irene Markman
The authors examined the relation between Greek students’ perceptions of alcohol consumption in their pledge classes (descriptive norms) and acceptability of drinking (injunctive norms) and the ability of these normative influences to predict drinking behavior, alcohol-related negative consequences, and symptoms of alcohol dependence concurrently and prospectively over 1 year. Participants were 279 men and 303 women recruited from incoming pledge classes of 12 fraternities and 6 sororities, who completed measures of descriptive and injunctive norms, alcohol use, and consequences. Results revealed that descriptive norms significantly predicted concurrent drinking. After controlling for baseline drinking, injunctive norms significantly predicted drinking 1 year later and predicted alcohol-related consequences and dependency symptoms at baseline and follow-up. The potential to incorporate injunctive norms into preventive interventions is discussed. PMID:15482075
Hosseini, Sayed-Mohsen; Mousavi, Saeid; Poursafa, Parinaz; Kelishadi, Roya
Objective This study aimed to develop and test the validity of a risk score to be used as a simple tool to identify those children at high risk of sonographic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted among 962 participants aged 6–18 years in Isfahan, Iran. They consisted of three groups of nearly equal number of normal-weight, overweight and obese individuals. Coefficients of the logistic regression models were used to assign a score value for each variable and the composite sonographic NAFLD risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. Performance of model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve procedure. Findings Data of 931 participants was included in the analysis. The sonographic findings of 16.8% of participants were compatible with NAFLD. Age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference and serum triglycerides level were diagnosed as factors associated with NAFLD. The risk score was calculated as 50 for sonographic NAFLD. Conclusion This study, to the best of our knowledge is the first of its kind in the pediatric age group, focuses on predicting sonographic NAFLD from easily-measured factors. It may suggest an association of hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype with NAFLD in the pediatric age group. PMID:23056785
Livingston, Nicholas A; Oost, Kathryn M; Heck, Nicholas C; Cochran, Bryan N
Research consistently demonstrates that sexual minority status is associated with increased risk of problematic substance use. Existing literature in this area has focused on group-specific minority stress factors (e.g., victimization and internalized heterosexism). However, no known research has tested the incremental validity of personality traits as predictors of substance use beyond identified group-specific risk factors. A sample of 704 sexual minority adults was recruited nationally from lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and questioning community organizations and social networking Web sites and asked to complete an online survey containing measures of personality, sexual minority stress, and substance use. Hierarchical regression models were constructed to test the incremental predictive validity of five-factor model personality traits over and above known sexual minority risk factors. Consistent with hypotheses, extraversion and conscientiousness were associated with drug and alcohol use after accounting for minority stress factors, and all factors except agreeableness were associated with substance use at the bivariate level of analysis. Future research should seek to better understand the role of normal personality structures and processes conferring risk for substance use among sexual minorities. (PsycINFO Database Record
Appel, David L.
This booklet suggests ways in which institutions--Catholic schools in particular--can move beyond public relations and advertising to engage in the broader arena of marketing with its focus on consumer satisfaction. The first of the book's three chapters reviews the concept of marketing, providing definitions of key terms, clarification of…
Maust, Robert N.
Although college administrators may be committed to the concept and need for institutional marketing, even a well-developed marketing plan may not work if it is not clearly organized to address special needs. This article reviews management fads, how to make jargon operational, organizational dynamics, and monitoring fads. (MSE)
Brechting, Emily H.; Brown, Tamara L.; Salsman, John M.; Sauer, Shannon E.; Holeman, Virginia T.; Carlson, Charles R.
Religious beliefs have consistently emerged as significantly and inversely related to alcohol use. This article seeks further understanding of this relationship by exploring the role of religious behaviors in this relationship in three ways. First, we aim to determine whether the relationship between religious beliefs and alcohol use differs with…
Schofield, Timothy P; Denson, Thomas F
Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense) and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense) charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges, but were not associated with felony drunk driving charges. The per capita density of on-premises alcohol outlets did not affect misdemeanor or felony drunk driving charges. The results suggest that temporal alcohol availability may be an impelling factor for first-time drunk driving, but other factors likely influence repeat drunk driving behaviors.
Gomel, M K; Wutzke, S E; Hardcastle, D M; Lapsley, H; Reznik, R B
The cost-effectiveness of strategies to market and train primary care physicians in brief intervention for hazardous alcohol consumption was examined. Physicians were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies designed to promote the "uptake" of a brief intervention package for hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption. The strategies were direct mail, tele-marketing, or academic detailing. One hundred and twenty-seven of those physicians who requested the package during the marketing phase (phase 1) and who also agreed to participate in the training and support phase of the project (phase 2) were matched into one of three training and support conditions: training and no support, training and minimal support, training and maximal support. An additional 34 physicians were randomly selected and assigned to a control condition. The ultimate aim of training and support was to maximise physician screening and counselling rates. Tele-marketing was found to be more cost-effective than academic detailing and direct mail in promoting the uptake of the package. For the training and support phase costs and effects increased with the level of support, hence the issue to be considered is whether the additional cost incurred in moving from one strategy to another is warranted given the increase in the level of outcome.
Zakiniaeiz, Yasmin; Scheinost, Dustin; Seo, Dongju; Sinha, Rajita; Constable, R Todd
Alcohol dependence is a chronic relapsing illness. Alcohol and stress cues have consistently been shown to increase craving and relapse risk in recovering alcohol dependent (AUD) patients. However, differences in functional connectivity in response to these cues have not been studied using data-driven approaches. Here, voxel-wise connectivity is used in a whole-brain investigation of functional connectivity differences associated with alcohol and stress cues and to examine whether these differences are related to subsequent relapse. In Study 1, 45, 4- to 8-week abstinent, recovering AUD patients underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging during individualized imagery of alcohol, stress, and neutral cues. Relapse measures were collected prospectively for 90 days post-discharge from inpatient treatment. AUD patients showed blunted anterior (ACC), mid (MCC) and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), voxel-wise connectivity responses to stress compared to neutral cues and blunted PCC response to alcohol compared to neutral cues. Using Cox proportional hazard regression, weaker connectivity in ACC and MCC during neutral exposure was associated with longer time to relapse (better recovery outcome). Similarly, greater connectivity in PCC during alcohol-cue compared to stress cue was associated with longer time to relapse. In Study 2, a sub-group of 30 AUD patients were demographically-matched to 30 healthy control (HC) participants for group comparisons. AUD compared to HC participants showed reduced cingulate connectivity during alcohol and stress cues. Using novel data-driven approaches, the cingulate cortex emerged as a key region in the disruption of functional connectivity during alcohol and stress-cue processing in AUD patients and as a marker of subsequent alcohol relapse.
Araújo, Ricardo de A
This paper presents a hybrid intelligent methodology to design increasing translation invariant morphological operators applied to Brazilian stock market prediction (overcoming the random walk dilemma). The proposed Translation Invariant Morphological Robust Automatic phase-Adjustment (TIMRAA) method consists of a hybrid intelligent model composed of a Modular Morphological Neural Network (MMNN) with a Quantum-Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QIEA), which searches for the best time lags to reconstruct the phase space of the time series generator phenomenon and determines the initial (sub-optimal) parameters of the MMNN. Each individual of the QIEA population is further trained by the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm to improve the MMNN parameters supplied by the QIEA. Also, for each prediction model generated, it uses a behavioral statistical test and a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions observed in stock market time series. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed method through four Brazilian stock market time series, and the achieved results are discussed and compared to results found with random walk models and the previously introduced Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) and Morphological-Rank-Linear Time-lag Added Evolutionary Forecasting (MRLTAEF) methods.
A 2005 survey showed that there are at least four legal product classifications for hand disinfectants in the European Union: medicinal products, biocidal products, cosmetics and medical devices. An internationally harmonized classification does not exist. The regulatory status of those products is defined at national level. In order to assure compliance with the regulations these four classifications provide different levels of official surveillance varying from product-specific marketing authorisations and production site audits to the obligation to just work in accordance with certain general guidelines. Biocidal product regulations cover eco-toxicological and toxicological aspects, but do not very much address to the customers' quality and efficacy expectations. In contrast, the medicinal product legislation is the most ambitious one claiming quality, safety, efficacy, and an independent benefit risk-assessment by an authority. In respect of ambition, the two remaining product categories--cosmetics and medical devices--rank between the both classifications mentioned above. For medical devices, it is the responsibility of the manufacturer to make sure the products meet defined essential requirements regarding quality, safety and performance and to have an appropriate quality assurance system implemented under third party control. For cosmetics there are some legal restrictions, but within these it is the sole responsibility of the manufacturer to ensure that the products are safe and fulfil their claims. This paper describes one way out of this increasingly complex situation, the definition of a single quality standard meeting the users' expectations as well as all legal requirements regardless of the specific sales country. This international quality standard for products would take priority over any individual national standard, to the benefit of users.
Casement, Melynda D; Shaw, Daniel S; Sitnick, Stephanie L; Musselman, Samuel C; Forbes, Erika E
Stressful life events increase vulnerability to problematic alcohol use, and they may do this by disrupting reward-related neural circuitry. This is particularly relevant for adolescents because alcohol use rises sharply after mid-adolescence and alcohol abuse peaks at age 20. Adolescents also report more stressors compared with children, and neural reward circuitry may be especially vulnerable to stressors during adolescence because of prefrontal cortex remodeling. Using a large sample of male participants in a longitudinal functional magnetic resonance imaging study (N = 157), we evaluated whether cumulative stressful life events between the ages of 15 and 18 were associated with reward-related brain function and problematic alcohol use at age 20 years. Higher cumulative stressful life events during adolescence were associated with decreased response in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) during monetary reward anticipation and following the receipt of monetary rewards. Stress-related decreases in mPFC response during reward anticipation and following rewarding outcomes were associated with the severity of alcohol dependence. Furthermore, mPFC response mediated the association between stressful life events and later symptoms of alcohol dependence. These data are consistent with neurobiological models of addiction that propose that stressors during adolescence increase risk for problematic alcohol use by disrupting reward circuit function.
Read, Jennifer P.; Colder, Craig R.; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Ouimette, Paige; White, Jacquelyn; Swartout, Ashlyn
Objective College matriculation begins a period of transition into adulthood, one that is marked by new freedoms and responsibilities. This transition also is marked by an escalation in heavy drinking and other drug use, and a variety of use-related negative consequences. Trauma and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may affect alcohol and drug problems, and thus may be a point of intervention. Yet no studies have examined trauma, PTSD, and alcohol and drug problem associations during this developmental period. The present study provides such an examination. Method Matriculating college students (N=997) completed surveys in September (T1) and at five subsequent time points (T2-T6) over their first year of college. With latent growth analysis, trajectories of alcohol and drug-related consequences were modeled to examine how trauma (No Criterion A Trauma, Criterion A Only, No PTSD symptoms) and PTSD (partial or full) symptom status predicted these trajectories. Results Results showed substantial risk for alcohol- and other drug-related negative consequences that is conferred by the presence of PTSD at matriculation. Those with both partial and full PTSD started the year with more alcohol and drug consequences. These individuals showed a steeper decrease in consequences in the first semester, which leveled off as the year progressed. Both alcohol and drug consequences remained higher for those in the PTSD group throughout the academic year. Hyper-arousal symptoms showed unique effects on substance consequence trajectories. Risk patterns were consistent for both partial and full PTSD symptom presentations. Trajectories did not vary by gender. Conclusions Interventions that offer support and resources to students entering college with PTSD may help to ameliorate problem substance use and may ultimately facilitate a stronger transition into college and beyond. PMID:22545739
Hoffman, Eric W; Austin, Erica Weintraub; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Austin, Bruce W
College students' use of digital communication technology has led to a rapid expansion of digital alcohol marketing efforts. Two surveys (total usable n = 637) were conducted to explore college students' experiences with alcohol-related social media, their decision making related to alcohol use, and their problematic drinking behaviors. Study results indicated that students' use of alcohol-related social media predicted their problem drinking behaviors. In addition, students' wishful identification, perceived desirability, perceived similarity, and normative beliefs predicted their expectancies for drinking alcohol. Finally, students' expectancies for drinking alcohol predicted their problematic drinking behaviors.
... their drinking causes distress and harm. It includes alcoholism and alcohol abuse. Alcoholism, or alcohol dependence, is a disease that causes ... groups. NIH: National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism
Meng, Jing; Qu, Xiaolong; Huang, Haiyun; Zhang, Shanwen; Zhao, Weibo; He, Guoxiang; Song, Zhiyuan; Hu, Houyuan
Alcohol septal ablation (ASA) has been used widely to treat patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy (HOCM). During the routine ASA procedure, it is difficult to detect the septal injury in real-time. The aim of the present study is to assess myocardial injury during ASA by recording intracoronary electrocardiogram (IC-ECG). From 2012 to 2015, 31 HOCM patients were treated with ASA, and IC-ECG was recorded in 21 patients successfully before and after ethanol injection. The elevation of ST-segment on IC-ECG after ethanol injection was expressed as its ratio to the level before injection or the absolute increasing value. Blood samples were collected before and after ASA for measuring changes in cardiac biomarkers. The ratio value of ST-segment elevation was positively correlated with both the amount of ethanol injected (r = 0.645, P = 0.001) and the myocardial injury size (creatine kinase-MB area under the curve (AUC) of CK-MB) (r = 0.466, P = 0.017). The absolute increment of ST-segment was also positively associated with both the amount of ethanol (r = 0.665, P = 0.001) and AUC of CK-MB (0.685, P = 0.001). However, there was no statistical correlation between the reduction of left ventricular outflow tract gradient and ST-segment elevation. Additionally no severe ASA procedure-related complications were observed in our patients. In conclusion, myocardial injury induced by ethanol injection can be assessed immediately by ST-segment elevation on IC-ECG. This study is the first to show that IC-ECG is a useful method for predicting myocardial injury during ASA in real-time.
Truckenmiller, James L.
Recent national surveys have found marked increases in the use of illicit drugs and alcohol among adolescents. To investigate differential prediction of alcohol versus hard drug use amoung youths, 6% of the youths, aged 10-19, from a Pennsylvania county school system (N=1,689) were assessed on the HEW Community Youth Program Impact Scales. The 12…
Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, Daniele
The approximate agents' wealth and price invariant densities of a repeated prediction market model is derived using the Fokker-Planck equation of the associated continuous-time jump process. We show that the approximation obtained from the evolution of log-wealth difference can be reliably exploited to compute all the quantities of interest in all the acceptable parameter space. When the risk aversion of the trader is high enough, we are able to derive an explicit closed-form solution for the price distribution which is asymptotically correct.
Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle
A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. PMID:25946510
There is an increasing number of studies showing that financial market crashes can be detected and predicted. The main aim of the research was to develop a technique for crashes prediction based on the analysis of durations between sequent crashes of a certain magnitude of Dow Jones Industrial Average. We have found significant autocorrelation in the series of durations between sequent crashes and suggest autoregressive conditional duration models (ACD) to forecast the crashes. We apply the rolling intervals technique in the sample of more than 400 DJIA crashes in 1896-2011 and repeatedly use the data on 100 sequent crashes to estimate a family of ACD models and calculate forecasts of the one following crash. It appears that the ACD models provide significant predictive power when combined with the inter-event waiting time technique. This suggests that despite the high quality of retrospective predictions, using the technique for real-time forecasting seems rather ineffective, as in the case of every particular crash the specification of the ACD model, which would provide the best quality prediction, is rather hard to identify.
Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim
Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) , (2000)  transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.
Diergaarde, Leontien; van Mourik, Yvar; Pattij, Tommy; Schoffelmeer, Anton N M; De Vries, Taco J
Tobacco and alcohol dependence are characterized by continued use despite deleterious health, social and occupational consequences, implying that addicted individuals pay a high price for their use. In behavioral economic terms, such persistent consumption despite increased costs can be conceptualized as inelastic demand. Recent animal studies demonstrated that high-impulsive individuals are more willing to work for nicotine or cocaine infusions than their low-impulsive counterparts, indicating that this trait might be causally related to inelastic drug demand. By employing progressive ratio schedules of reinforcement combined with a behavioral economics approach of analysis, we determined whether trait impulsivity is associated with an insensitivity of nicotine or alcohol consumption to price increments. Rats were trained on a delayed discounting task, measuring impulsive choice. Hereafter, high- and low-impulsive rats were selected and trained to nose poke for intravenous nicotine or oral alcohol. Upon stable self-administration on a continuous reinforcement schedule, the price (i.e. response requirement) was increased. Demand curves, depicting the relationship between price and consumption, were produced using Hursh's exponential demand equation. Similar to human observations, nicotine and alcohol consumption in rats fitted this equation, thereby demonstrating the validity of our model. Moreover, high-impulsive rats displayed inelastic nicotine demand, as their nicotine consumption was less sensitive to price increments as compared with that in low-impulsive rats. Impulsive choice was not related to differences in alcohol demand elasticity. Our model seems well suited for studying nicotine and alcohol demand in rats and, as such, might contribute to our understanding of tobacco and alcohol dependence.
Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R.
Objective: Using insights from Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, the current study assessed the utility of a series of hypothetical role-based alcohol-consumption scenarios that varied in their presentation of rewarding and punishing information. Method: The scenarios, along with measures of impulsive sensation seeking and a self-report of weekly alcohol consumption, were administered to a sample of alcohol-dependent and non-alcohol-dependent college-age individuals (N = 170). Results: The results showed scenario attendance decisions were largely unaffected by alcohol-dependence status and variations in contextual reward and punishment information. In contrast to the attendance findings, the results for the alcohol-consumption decisions showed alcohol-dependent individuals reported a greater frequency of deciding to drink, as well as indicating greater alcohol consumption in the contexts of complementary rewarding or nonpunishing information. Regression results provided evidence for the criterion-related validity of scenario outcomes in an account of diagnostic alcohol problems. Conclusions: The results are discussed in terms of the conceptual and predictive gains associated with an assessment approach to alcohol-consumption decision making that combines situational information organized and balanced through the frameworks of Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory. PMID:19371496
Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R
the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales. PMID:10902685
Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R
the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales.
In this paper we apply a new approach of string theory to the real financial market. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. A brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is based on the correlation function as invariant and the second one is an application based on the deviations from the closed string/pattern form (PMBCS). We found the difference between these two approaches. The first model cannot predict the behavior of the forex market with good efficiency in comparison with the second one which is, in addition, able to make relevant profit per year. The presented string models could be useful for portfolio creation and financial risk management in the banking sector as well as for a nonlinear statistical approach to data optimization.
Wang, Shan; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhou, Wei-Xing
Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. The profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousand traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) from May 21, 1992 through June 30, 2013 and China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) from April 8, 2005 through June 30, 2013 to check whether an effective trading strategy could be found by using the performance measurements based on the return and Sharpe ratio. To correct for the influence of the data-snooping effect, we adopt the Superior Predictive Ability test to evaluate if there exists a trading rule that can significantly outperform the benchmark. The result shows that for SSCI, technical trading rules offer significant profitability, while for CSI 300, this ability is lost. We further partition the SSCI into two sub-series and find that the efficiency of technical trading in sub-series, which have exactly the same spanning period as that of CSI 300, is severely weakened. By testing the trading rules on both indexes with a five-year moving window, we find that during the financial bubble from 2005 to 2007, the effectiveness of technical trading rules is greatly improved. This is consistent with the predictive ability of technical trading rules which appears when the market is less efficient.
Farfel, Joseph; Conitzer, Vincent
We present Turing Trade, a web-based game that is a hybrid of a Turing test and a prediction market. In this game, there is a mystery conversation partner, the “target,” who is trying to appear human, but may in reality be either a human or a bot. There are multiple judges (or “bettors”), who interrogate the target in order to assess whether it is a human or a bot. Throughout the interrogation, each bettor bets on the nature of the target by buying or selling human (or bot) securities, which pay out if the target is a human (bot). The resulting market price represents the bettors’ aggregate belief that the target is a human. This game offers multiple advantages over standard variants of the Turing test. Most significantly, our game gathers much more fine-grained data, since we obtain not only the judges’ final assessment of the target’s humanity, but rather the entire progression of their aggregate belief over time. This gives us the precise moments in conversations where the target’s response caused a significant shift in the aggregate belief, indicating that the response was decidedly human or unhuman. An additional benefit is that (we believe) the game is more enjoyable to participants than a standard Turing test. This is important because otherwise, we will fail to collect significant amounts of data. In this paper, we describe in detail how Turing Trade works, exhibit some example logs, and analyze how well Turing Trade functions as a prediction market by studying the calibration and sharpness of its forecasts (from real user data).
Maldonado, Rosalita C; Watkins, Laura E; DiLillo, David
The current study examined three well-established risk factors for intimate partner aggression (IPA) within Finkel and Eckhardt's I(3) model, including two impellance factors-trait anger and childhood physical abuse history-and the disinhibiting factor of alcohol consumption. Participants were 236 male and female college students in a committed heterosexual dating relationship who completed a battery of self-report measures assessing childhood physical abuse, trait anger, alcohol consumption, and IPA perpetration. Results revealed a significant three-way interaction showing that as the disinhibition factor alcohol consumption increased, the interaction of the two impelling factors, trait anger and childhood physical abuse, became increasingly more positive. Individuals who had high levels of childhood physical abuse and alcohol consumption were at greater risk of IPA perpetration when trait anger was high. Consistent with the I(3) model, these findings suggest that trait anger and a history of childhood physical abuse may increase tendencies to aggress against one's partner, whereas alcohol consumption may reduce individuals' abilities to manage these aggressive tendencies. The importance of interplay among these risk factors in elevating IPA risk is discussed, as are the implications for clinicians working with male and female IPA perpetrators.
Intrade is an online trading exchange that includes climate prediction markets. One such family of contracts can be described as "Global temperature anomaly for 2012 to be greater than x °C or more," where the figure x ranges in increments of .05 from .30 to 1.10 (relative to the 1951-1980 base period), based on data published by NASA GISS. Each market will settle at 10.00 if the published global temperature anomaly for 2012 is equal to or greater than x, and will otherwise settle at 0.00. Similar contracts will be available for 2013. Global warming hypotheses can be cast as probabilistic predictions for future temperatures. The first modern such climate prediction is that of Broecker (1975), whose temperatures are easily separable from his CO2 growth scenario—which he overestimated—by interpolating his table of temperature as a function of CO2 concentration and projecting the current trend into the near future. For the current concentration of 395 ppm, Broecker's equilibrium temperature anomaly prediction relative to pre-industrial is 1.05 °C, or about 0.75 °C relative to the GISS base period. His neglect of lag in response to the changes in radiative forcing was partially compensated by his low sensitivity of 2.4 °C, leading to a slight overestimate. Simple linear extrapolation of the current trend since 1975 yields an estimate of .65 ± .09 °C (net warming of .95 °C) for anthropogenic global warming with a normal distribution of random natural variability. To evaluate an extreme case, we can estimate the prediction Broecker would have made if he had used the Lindzen & Choi (2009) climate sensitivity of 0.5 °C. The net post-industrial warming by 2012 would have been 0.21 °C, for an expected change of -0.09 from the GISS base period. This is the temperature to which the Earth would be expected to revert if the observed warming since the 19th century was merely due to random natural variability that coincidentally mimicked Broecker's anthropogenic
Fu, Jun-Fen; Shi, Hong-Bo; Liu, Li-Rui; Jiang, Ping; Liang, Li; Wang, Chun-Lin; Liu, Xi-Yong
AIM: To investigate if non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an early mediator for prediction of metabolic syndrome, and if liver B-ultrasound can be used for its diagnosis. METHODS: We classified 861 obese children (6-16 years old) into three subgroups: group 0 (normal liver in ultrasound and normal transaminases); group 1 (fatty liver in ultrasound and normal transaminases); and group 2 (fatty liver in ultrasound and elevated transaminases). We measured the body mass index, waist and hip circumference, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), whole-body insulin sensitivity index (WBISI), lipid profile and transaminases in all the participants. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome (MS) was assessed according to the degree of liver fatty infiltration based on the B-ultrasound examination. RESULTS: Among the 861 obese children, 587 (68.18%) were classified as having NAFLD, and 221 (25.67%) as having MS. The prevalence of MS in NAFLD children (groups 1 and 2) was 37.64% (221/587), which was much higher than that in non-NAFLD group (group 0, 12.04%) (P < 0.01). There were significantly higher incidences concerning every component of MS in group 2 compared with group 0 (P < 0.05). The incidence of NAFLD in MS patients was 84.61% (187/221), which was significantly higher than that of hypertension (57.46%, 127/221) and glucose metabolic anomalies (22.62%, 50/221), and almost equal to the prevalence of dyslipidemia (89.14%, 197/221). Based on the B-ultrasound scales, the presence of moderate and severe liver fatty infiltration carried a high risk of hypertension [odds ratio (OR): 2.18, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.27-3.75], dyslipidemia (OR: 7.99, 95% CI: 4.34-14.73), impaired fasting glucose (OR: 3.65, 95% CI: 1.04-12.85), and whole MS (OR: 3.77; 95% CI: 1.90-7.47, P < 0.01). The state of insulin resistance (calculated by HOMA-IR and WBISI) deteriorated as the degree of fatty
Burgoon, Lyle D
An ongoing challenge in chemical production, including the production of insensitive munitions and energetics, is the ability to make predictions about potential environmental hazards early in the process. To address this challenge, a quantitative structure activity relationship model was developed to predict acute fathead minnow toxicity of insensitive munitions and energetic materials. Computational predictive toxicology models like this one may be used to identify and prioritize environmentally safer materials early in their development. The developed model is based on the Apriori market-basket/frequent itemset mining approach to identify probabilistic prediction rules using chemical atom-pairs and the lethality data for 57 compounds from a fathead minnow acute toxicity assay. Lethality data were discretized into four categories based on the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals. Apriori identified toxicophores for categories two and three. The model classified 32 of the 57 compounds correctly, with a fivefold cross-validation classification rate of 74 %. A structure-based surrogate approach classified the remaining 25 chemicals correctly at 48 %. This result is unsurprising as these 25 chemicals were fairly unique within the larger set.
Hersh, Matthew A.; Hussong, Andrea M.
This study examined differences among distinct types of high school drinkers on their alcohol involvement and psychosocial adjustment during the first semester of college. Participants were 147 college freshmen (66% female; 86% Caucasian) from a large Southeastern public university who reported on high school drinking and college stress, affect,…
Anton, Stephen D.; Miller, Peter M.
This study examined anger, depression, and stress as related to alcohol consumption, saturated fat intake, and physical activity. Participants were 23 older adults enrolled in either an outpatient or in-residence executive health program. Participants completed (a) a health-risk appraisal assessing medical history and current health habits, (b)…
Thomsen, Steven R.; Rekve, Dag; Lindsay, Gordon B.
This study explored the association between attendance at the "Bud World Party," a family entertainment venue created by Anheuser-Busch for the 2002 Winter Olympics, and alcohol-related beliefs and current drinking behaviors for a group of 7th and 8th graders who attend a middle school in close proximity to the downtown Salt Lake City plaza where…
Grimaldi, Elizabeth M; Napper, Lucy E; LaBrie, Joseph W
Research on relational aggression (indirect and social means of inflicting harm) has previously focused on adolescent populations. The current study extends this research by exploring both the frequency of perpetrating and being the target of relational aggression as it relates to alcohol use outcomes in a college population. Further, this study examines whether positive urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to positive emotions) and negative urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to negative emotions) moderate the relationship between relational aggression and alcohol outcomes. In this study, 245 college students (65.7% female) completed an online survey. Results indicated greater frequency of perpetrating relational aggression, higher levels of positive urgency, or higher levels of negative urgency was associated with more negative consequences. Further, negative urgency moderated the relationship between frequency of perpetrating aggression and consequences such that aggression was more strongly associated with consequences for those high in urgency. Counter to the adolescent literature, the frequency of being the target of aggression was not associated with more alcohol use. These findings suggest that perpetrators of relational aggression may be at particular risk for negative alcohol-related consequences when they act impulsively in response to negative, but not positive, emotions. These students may benefit from interventions exploring alternative ways to cope with negative emotions.
Elmore, Kristen C; Scull, Tracy M; Kupersmidt, Janis B
Adolescents' media environment offers information about who uses substances and what happens as a result-how youth interpret these messages likely determines their impact on normative beliefs about alcohol and tobacco use. The Message Interpretation Processing (MIP) theory predicts that substance use norms are influenced by cognitions associated with the interpretation of media messages. This cross-sectional study examined whether high school adolescents' (n = 817, 48 % female, 64 % white) media-related cognitions (i.e., similarity, realism, desirability, identification) were related to their perceptions of substance use norms. Results revealed that adolescents' media-related cognitions explained a significant amount of variance in perceived social approval for and estimated prevalence of peer alcohol and tobacco use, above and beyond previous use and demographic covariates. Compared to prevalence norms, social approval norms were more closely related to adolescents' media-related cognitions. Results suggest that critical thinking about media messages can inhibit normative perceptions that are likely to increase adolescents' interest in alcohol and tobacco use.
Yan, Wanfeng; Woodard, Ryan; Sornette, Didier
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as a flexible tool to detect bubbles. The LPPL model considers the faster-than-exponential (power law with finite-time singularity) increase in asset prices decorated by accelerating oscillations as the main diagnostic of bubbles. It embodies a positive feedback loop of higher return anticipations competing with negative feedback spirals of crash expectations. The power of the LPPL model is illustrated by two recent real-life predictions performed recently by our group: the peak of the Oil price bubble in early July 2008 and the burst of a bubble on the Shanghai stock market in early August 2009. We then present the concept of 'negative bubbles', which are the mirror images of positive bubbles. We argue that similar positive feedbacks are at work to fuel these accelerated downward price spirals. We adapt the LPPL model to these negative bubbles and implement a pattern recognition method to predict the end times of the negative bubbles, which are characterized by rebounds (the mirror images of crashes associated with the standard positive bubbles). The out-of-sample tests quantified by error diagrams demonstrate the high significance of the prediction performance.
Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin
With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.
Arria, Amelia M; Wilcox, Holly C; Caldeira, Kimberly M; Vincent, Kathryn B; Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M; O'Grady, Kevin E
This study tested the hypothesis that college students' substance use problems would predict increases in skipping classes and declining academic performance, and that nonmedical use of prescription stimulants (NPS) for studying would occur in association with this decline. A cohort of 984 students in the College Life Study at a large public university in the US participated in a longitudinal prospective study. Interviewers assessed NPS; Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) cannabis and alcohol use disorders; and frequency of skipping class. Semester grade point average (GPA) was obtained from the university. Control variables were race, sex, family income, high school GPA, and self-reported attention deficit hyperactivity disorder diagnosis. Longitudinal growth curve modeling of four annual data waves estimated the associations among the rates of change of cannabis use disorder, percentage of classes skipped, and semester GPA. The associations between these trajectories and NPS for studying were then evaluated. A second structural model substituted alcohol use disorder for cannabis use disorder. More than one-third (38%) reported NPS for studying at least once by Year 4. Increases in skipping class were associated with both alcohol and cannabis use disorder, which were associated with declining GPA. The hypothesized relationships between these trajectories and NPS for studying were confirmed. These longitudinal findings suggest that escalation of substance use problems during college is related to increases in skipping class and to declining academic performance. NPS for studying is associated with academic difficulties. Although additional research is needed to investigate causal pathways, these results suggest that nonmedical users of prescription stimulants could benefit from a comprehensive drug and alcohol assessment to possibly mitigate future academic declines.
Hackbarth, D P; Silvestri, B; Cosper, W
This paper describes a study of billboard advertising of tobacco and alcohol products in the city of Chicago. All billboards were counted and their advertising themes noted. These data were matched with information on population and race from the 1990 census in order to document which geographic areas of the city, if any, had excess tobacco or alcohol billboards. The data revealed that minority wards were burdened with three times as many tobacco billboards and five times as many alcohol billboards when compared to white wards. The findings are congruent with studies conducted in other urban areas, which demonstrate a consistent pattern of tobacco and alcohol advertisers targeting poor and minority neighborhoods for outdoor advertising of their dangerous products. Chicago legislative initiatives based on the billboard study are described.
Howland, Jonathan; Rohsenow, Damaris J.; Bliss, Caleb A.; Almeida, Alissa B.; Calise, Tamara Vehige; Heeren, Timothy; Winter, Michael
Objectives Both hangover and performance deficits have been documented the day after drinking to intoxication after breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) has returned to near zero. But few studies have examined the relationship between hangover and post-intoxication performance. Method We performed secondary analyses of data from a previously reported controlled cross-over laboratory study to assess the relationship of hangover incidence and severity to sustained attention/reaction time the morning after drinking to about 0.11 g% BrAC. Relationships were investigated while controlling for gender, type of alcoholic beverage (bourbon or vodka), and neurocognitive performance after placebo. Results Hangover severity and neurocognitive performance were significantly correlated. Participants reporting stronger hangover were more impaired than those reporting little or no hangover. Comparing any to no hangover showed a trend in the same direction of effect. Conclusions More intense hangover may indicate less fitness for duty in workers in certain safety-sensitive occupations, with implications for occupational alcohol policies. PMID:21643431
Skřínský, Jan; Vereš, Ján; Ševčíková, Silvie Petránková
Aqueous solutions of binary and ternary mixtures of alcohols are of considerable interest for a wide range of scientists and technologists. Simple dimensionless experimental formulae based on rational reciprocal and polynomial functions are proposed for correlation of the flashpoint data of binary mixtures of two components. The formulae are based on data obtained from flashpoint experiments and predictions. The main results are the derived experimental flashpoint values for ternary mixtures of two aqueous-organic solutions and the model prediction of maximum explosion pressure values for the studied mixtures. Potential application for the results concerns the assessment of fire and explosion hazards, and the development of inherently safer designs for chemical processes containing binary and ternary partially miscible mixtures of an aqueous-organic system. The goal of this article is to present the results of modelling using these standard models and to demonstrate its importance in the area of CFD simulation.
Sofin, Yvonne; Danker-Hopfe, Heidi; Gooren, Tina; Neu, Peter
Aims. This prospective study aims to identify patient characteristics as predictors for treatment outcome during inpatient detoxification treatment for drug and alcohol dependent patients. Methods. A mixed gender sample of 832 consecutively admitted drug and alcohol dependent patients were interviewed by an experienced physician. The impact of a variety of factors concerning social environment, therapy motivation, impulsivity related variables, medical history, and addiction severity on treatment outcome was examined. Results. 525 (63.1%) of the patients completed detoxification treatment whereas 307 (36.9%) dropped out prematurely. Being female, living in a partnership, having children, being employed, and having good education were predictive for a positive outcome. Family, health, the fear of losing the job, prosecution, and emergency admission were significant motivational predictors for treatment outcome. Being younger, history of imprisonment, and the number of previous drop-outs were predictive for a negative outcome. Conclusions. Variables concerning social environment and the number of previous drop-outs have been identified as best predictors for treatment outcome. Socially stable patients benefit from the current treatment setting and treatment shall be adapted for patients with negative predictors. Treatment may consequently be tailored with respect to intervention type, duration, and intensity to improve the outcome for those patients that fulfil criteria with negative impact on treatment retention.
Danker-Hopfe, Heidi; Gooren, Tina
Aims. This prospective study aims to identify patient characteristics as predictors for treatment outcome during inpatient detoxification treatment for drug and alcohol dependent patients. Methods. A mixed gender sample of 832 consecutively admitted drug and alcohol dependent patients were interviewed by an experienced physician. The impact of a variety of factors concerning social environment, therapy motivation, impulsivity related variables, medical history, and addiction severity on treatment outcome was examined. Results. 525 (63.1%) of the patients completed detoxification treatment whereas 307 (36.9%) dropped out prematurely. Being female, living in a partnership, having children, being employed, and having good education were predictive for a positive outcome. Family, health, the fear of losing the job, prosecution, and emergency admission were significant motivational predictors for treatment outcome. Being younger, history of imprisonment, and the number of previous drop-outs were predictive for a negative outcome. Conclusions. Variables concerning social environment and the number of previous drop-outs have been identified as best predictors for treatment outcome. Socially stable patients benefit from the current treatment setting and treatment shall be adapted for patients with negative predictors. Treatment may consequently be tailored with respect to intervention type, duration, and intensity to improve the outcome for those patients that fulfil criteria with negative impact on treatment retention. PMID:28367351
Litt, Dana M; Lewis, Melissa A; Patrick, Megan E; Rodriguez, Lindsey; Neighbors, Clayton; Kaysen, Debra L
Within the domain of risk-related behavior, many times the decision to engage is not a product of premeditation or intention. The prototype willingness model was created to capture and explain the unintended element of risk behavior. The present study aimed to evaluate the importance of willingness versus intention, two important constructs within the prototype willingness model, in relation to spring break drinking behavior when assessed at both high and low extremities. College undergraduates (N = 275) completed questionnaires prior to spring break regarding their anticipated spring break activities. Willingness and intention were assessed for different levels of risk. Specifically, participants indicated the extent to which they intended to (a) get drunk and (b) drink enough to black out or pass out; and the extent to which they were willing to (a) get drunk and (b) drink enough to black out or pass out. When classes resumed following spring break, the students indicated the extent to which they actually (a) got drunk and (b) drank enough to black out or pass out. Results demonstrated that when the health-related risk was lower (i.e., getting drunk), intention was a stronger predictor of behavior than was willingness. However, as the level of risk increased (i.e., getting drunk enough to black out or pass out), willingness more strongly predicted behavior. The present study suggests that willingness and intentions differentially predict spring break alcohol-related behavior depending on the extremity of behavior in question. Implications regarding alcohol interventions are discussed.
Portman, M; Penttilä, A; Haukka, J; Eriksson, P; Alho, H; Kuoppasalmi, K
The aim of the present study was to determine whether the alcohol biomarkers CDT, GGT, the biomarker gamma-CDT index and previous drunken driving contributed significantly to the prediction of DUI recidivism. The subjects consisted of two different samples of drivers, viz. drivers who were found to have a positive breath alcohol concentration during random breath testing surveys (n=237), and drunken drivers who were apprehended during ordinary police work (n=193). The drunken driving events were monitored using a data-base both retrospectively and prospectively. It was found that the biomarker index, gamma-CDT, emerged as a notable predictor of recidivism in the group of random breath tested drivers. Measurement of gamma-CDT and its impact on DUI recidivism has not to our knowledge been applied to random breath tested drivers before. The apprehended drunken drivers, on the other hand, did not show a significant relationship between gamma-CDT and DUI recidivism. However, in both groups of drivers it was found that a previous conviction for drunken driving strongly predicted DUI recidivism. More attention should be paid by both physicians and the police to the high risk of recidivism among those convicted of drunken driving.
Ávila Escribano, José Juan; Sánchez Barba, Mercedes; Álvarez Pedrero, Aida; López Villarreal, Ana; Recio Pérez, Joaquina; Rodríguez Rodilla, Manuela; Fraile García, Eulalia
Objetivo: se pretende investigar la capacidad de predicción del inventario de temperamento y carácter de Cloninger (TCI-R) en la evolución de los trastornos por uso de alcohol. Metodología: Es un estudio longitudinal de 237 pacientes con trastornos por uso de alcohol, en tratamiento ambulatorio y seguimiento durante seis meses, cuya personalidad fue estudiada mediante el inventario TCI-R. Se analizó la puntuación de cada una de las dimensiones del inventario TCI-R en función de su situación (retención o abandono) al final del estudio. Resultados: La muestra presentaba puntuaciones elevadas en búsqueda de novedad (BN) y evitación del daño (ED) y baja en autodirección (AD), definidas, estas últimas, como prominentes. El grupo que abandonó presentaba una puntuación significativamente (p= .004) más elevada en búsqueda de novedad (BN) que el grupo en seguimiento; además cuando la puntuación era superior al percentil 67 la probabilidad de abandonar era 1,07 veces superior. Conclusiones: El inventario de temperamento y carácter de Cloninger (TCI-R) es un buen instrumento para predecir la evolución de los pacientes con trastorno por uso de alcohol y la dimensión búsqueda de novedad (BN) está fuertemente relacionada con el abandono terapéutico.
Ciaccheri, L.; Samano Baca, E. E.; Russo, M. T.; Ottevaere, H.; Thienpont, H.; Mignani, A. G.
A miscellaneous of 86 beers was characterized by non-destructive, fast and reagent-free optical measurements. Diffuselight absorption spectroscopy performed in the visible and near-infrared bands was used to gather a turbidity-free spectroscopic information. Also, conventional turbidity and refractive index measurements were added for completing the optical characterization. The near-infrared spectra provided a straightforward turbidity-free assessment of the alcoholic strength. Then, the entire optical data set was processed by means of multivariate analysis looking for a beer clustering according to the own character and identity. Good results were achieved, indicating that optical methods can be successfully used for beer authentication.
Ooteman, Wendy; Naassila, Mickaël; Koeter, Maarten W J; Verheul, Roel; Schippers, Gerard M; Houchi, Hakim; Daoust, Martine; van den Brink, Wim
Acamprosate and naltrexone are effective medications in the treatment of alcoholism. However, effect sizes are modest. Pharmacogenomics may improve patient-treatment-matching and effect sizes. It is hypothesized that naltrexone exerts its effect through genetic characteristics associated with the dopaminergic/opioidergic positive reinforcement system, whereas acamprosate works through the glutamatergic/GABAergic negative reinforcement system. Alcohol-dependent subjects were randomly assigned to either acamprosate or naltrexone. Subjects participated in a cue-exposure experiment at the day before and at the last day of medication. Reductions in cue-induced craving and physiological cue reactivity were measured. Differential effects of naltrexone and acamprosate on these outcomes were tested for different polymorphisms of the opioid, dopamine, glutamate and GABA-receptors. Significant matching effects were found for polymorphisms at the DRD2, GABRA6 and GABRB2 gene. In addition, a trend was found for the OPRM1 polymorphism. This provides evidence for the matching potential of genotypes. It is expected that more effective treatments can be offered when genetic information is used in patient-treatment-matching.
Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…
The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…
Turner, James; Perkins, H. Wesley; Bauerle, Jennifer
Objective: The authors examined whether alcohol-related negative consequences decreased among students exposed to an intervention. Participants: Beginning in 1999, approximately 2,500 randomly selected undergraduates from a 4-year US university annually participated in a Web-based survey over 6 years. Methods: The educational intervention used…
Baik, Su Youn; Lee, Soo Youn; Park, Chan Hee; Park, Paul J.; Kim, Ju Han
Despite substantial premarket efforts, a significant portion of approved drugs has been withdrawn from the market for safety reasons. The deleterious impact of nonsynonymous substitutions predicted by the SIFT algorithm on structure and function of drug-related proteins was evaluated for 2504 personal genomes. Both withdrawn (n = 154) and precautionary (Beers criteria (n = 90), and US FDA pharmacogenomic biomarkers (n = 96)) drugs showed significantly lower genomic deleteriousness scores (P < 0.001) compared to others (n = 752). Furthermore, the rates of drug withdrawals and precautions correlated significantly with the deleteriousness scores of the drugs (P < 0.01); this trend was confirmed for all drugs included in the withdrawal and precaution lists by the United Nations, European Medicines Agency, DrugBank, Beers criteria, and US FDA. Our findings suggest that the person-to-person genome sequence variability is a strong independent predictor of drug withdrawals and precautions. We propose novel measures of drug safety based on personal genome sequence analysis. PMID:27690231
Gu, Rongbao; Shao, Yanmin
In this paper, a new concept of multi-scales singular value decomposition entropy based on DCCA cross correlation analysis is proposed and its predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is studied. Using Granger causality analysis with different time scales, it is found that, the singular value decomposition entropy has predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for period less than one month, but not for more than one month. This shows how long the singular value decomposition entropy predicts the stock market that extends Caraiani's result obtained in Caraiani (2014). On the other hand, the result also shows an essential characteristic of stock market as a chaotic dynamic system.
Dong, Jian-Jun; Li, Qing-Liang; Yin, Hua; Zhong, Cheng; Hao, Jun-Guang; Yang, Pan-Fei; Tian, Yu-Hong; Jia, Shi-Ru
Sensory evaluation is regarded as a necessary procedure to ensure a reproducible quality of beer. Meanwhile, high-throughput analytical methods provide a powerful tool to analyse various flavour compounds, such as higher alcohol and ester. In this study, the relationship between flavour compounds and sensory evaluation was established by non-linear models such as partial least squares (PLS), genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network (GA-BP), support vector machine (SVM). It was shown that SVM with a Radial Basis Function (RBF) had a better performance of prediction accuracy for both calibration set (94.3%) and validation set (96.2%) than other models. Relatively lower prediction abilities were observed for GA-BP (52.1%) and PLS (31.7%). In addition, the kernel function of SVM played an essential role of model training when the prediction accuracy of SVM with polynomial kernel function was 32.9%. As a powerful multivariate statistics method, SVM holds great potential to assess beer quality.
Scott-Sheldon, Lori A. J.; Carey, Kate B.; Cunningham, Karlene; Johnson, Blair T.; Carey, Michael P.
Alcohol is associated with HIV and other sexually transmitted infections through increased sexual risk-taking behavior. Establishing a causal link between alcohol and sexual behavior has been challenging due to methodological limitations (e.g., reliance on cross-sectional designs). Experimental methods can be used to establish causality. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the effects of alcohol consumption on unprotected sex intentions. We searched electronic bibliographic databases for records with relevant keywords; 26 manuscripts (k = 30 studies) met inclusion criteria. Results indicate that alcohol consumption is associated with greater intentions to engage in unprotected sex (d+s = 0.24, 0.35). The effect of alcohol on unprotected sex intentions was greater when sexual arousal was heightened. Alcohol consumption is causally linked to theoretical antecedents of sexual risk behavior, consistent with the alcohol myopia model. Addressing alcohol consumption as a determinant of unprotected sex intentions may lead to more effective HIV interventions. PMID:26080689
Christiansen, Bruce A.; And Others
Examined power of expectancies measured in early adolescents to predict self-reported drinking onset and drinking behavior measured one year later. Results showed that five of seven expectancy scores readily discriminated between nonproblem drinkers and those subsequently beginning problem drinkers and accounted for large portion of variance in…
Rhoades, Brittany L.; Maggs, Jennifer L.
Actively pursuing important goals predicts positive affect and well-being (Emmons, 1986, "J. Pers. Soc. Psychol." 51: 1058-1068; Emmons and King, 1988, "J. Pers. Soc. Psychol." 54: 1040-1048; Salmela-Aro and Nurmi, 1997, "J. Adult Dev." 4: 179-188). College-bound high school graduates (n=943) completed the ULTRA Orientation Survey prior to…
Guo, Song-Tao; Zhao, Da-Peng; Zhang, Peng; Huang, Kang; Li, Bao-Guo
Social grooming is a common form of affiliative behavior in primates. Biological market theory suggests that grooming can be traded either for grooming or other social commodities and services. When no other services are exchanged, grooming is predicted to be approximately reciprocated within a dyad. In contrast, the amount of reciprocal grooming should decrease as other offered services increase. We studied grooming patterns between polygamous male and female in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) from the Qinling Mountains of central China and found that about 29.7% of grooming bouts were reciprocated. However, the durations of grooming bouts offered and returned was asymmetrical within dyads. In bisexual dyads, more grooming was initiated by females than males, which became more pronounced as the number of females per one-male unit increased. The rate of copulation per day for each female was positively correlated with the total duration of grooming time females invested in males.. Females without an infant (non-mothers) directed more grooming towards females with an infant (mothers) and were significantly more likely to be non-reciprocated. There was a significant negative relationship between non-mother and mother grooming duration and the rate of infants per female in each one-male unit. High-ranking females also received more grooming from low-ranking females than vice versa. The rate of food-related aggressive interactions was per day for low-ranking females was negatively correlated with the duration of grooming that low-ranking females gave to high-ranking females. Our results showed that grooming reciprocation in R. roxellana was discrepancy. This investment-reciprocity rate could be explained by the exchange of other social services in lieu of grooming. PMID:22590611
Miranda, Robert; Reynolds, Elizabeth; Ray, Lara; Justus, Alicia; Knopik, Valerie S.; McGeary, John; Meyerson, Lori A.
Background Emerging research suggests that genetic influences on adolescent drinking are moderated by environmental factors. The present study builds on molecular-genetic findings by conducting the first analysis of gene-environment interactions in the association between a functional single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of the µ-opioid receptor (OPRM1) gene (A118G) and risk for developing an alcohol use disorder (AUD) during adolescence. Specifically, we tested whether variation in parenting practices or affiliation with deviant peers moderated the link between the OPRM1 gene and risk for an AUD. Methods Adolescents reporting European ancestry (N = 104), ages 12–19 years (M = 15.60, SD = 1.77), were interviewed to ascertain AUD diagnoses, provided a DNA sample for genetic analyses, and completed measures of parental monitoring and deviant peer affiliation. Logistic regression was used to test the effects of environmental variable sand their interactions with OPRM1genotype as predictors of AUD diagnosis while controlling for age and sex. Results Case-control comparisons showed that the proportion of youth with an AUD (n = 18) significantly differed by genotype such that 33.3% of G allele carriers met criteria for an AUD compared to 10.8% of youth who were homozygous for the A allele (p = .006). The OPRM1 × parental monitoring (odds ratio = 0.16) and OPRM1 × deviant peer affiliation (odds ratio = 7.64) interactions were significant predictors of AUD risk, such that G allele carriers with high levels of deviant peer affiliation or lower levels of parental monitoring had the greatest likelihood of developing an AUD (p values < .01). Conclusions This study provides initial evidence that the association between the A118G SNP of the OPRM1 gene and risk for AUDs is moderated by modifiable factors. These results are limited, however, by the small sample size and require replication. PMID:23136901
Confronting the Impact of Alcohol Labeling and Marketing on Native American Health and Culture. Hearing before the Select Committee on Children, Youth and Families. House of Representatives, One Hundred Second Congress, Second Session.
Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. House Select Committee on Children, Youth, and Families.
A congressional hearing examined the effects of alcohol labeling and marketing on Native American health and culture. The focus of the hearing was on "Crazy Horse" malt liquor, a product named for the spiritual and political leader of the Native American Sioux. Following opening remarks by presiding committee chairwoman, Patricia…
Lee, Jieun; Yoon, Kijung; Ryu, Seungho; Chang, Yoosoo; Kim, Hyoung-Ryoul
We performed a follow-up study to address whether high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels within the normal range can predict the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in healthy male subjects. Among15347 male workers between 30 and 59 years old who received annual health check-ups in 2002, a NAFLD-free cohort of 4,138 was followed through December 2009. Alcohol consumption was assessed with a questionnaire. At each visit, abdominal ultrasonography was performed to identify fatty liver disease. The COX proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the relationship between hs-CRP and incident NAFLD. During the follow-up period, 28.8% (1191 of 4138) of participants developed NAFLD. The hazard ratios of NAFLD were increased by hs-CRP categories within the normal range in the non-adjusted model and age-adjusted model. After adjusting for age, exercise, smoking, BMI, systolic BP, triglyceride, and fasting glucose, these incidences were only increased between the lowest and the highest hs-CRP categories. The risk for NAFLD increased as the hs-CRP level increased (p< 0.001). As the hs-CRP level increased within the healthy cohort, the risk of developing NAFLD increased. This trend remained true even if the hs-CRP level remained within the normal range. hs-CRP can be used as a predictor of NAFLD, as well as other obesity-associated diseases. Therefore, individuals with higher hs-CRP levels (even within the normal range) may require appropriate follow-up and management to prevent NAFLD development. PMID:28234943
Lee, Jieun; Yoon, Kijung; Ryu, Seungho; Chang, Yoosoo; Kim, Hyoung-Ryoul
We performed a follow-up study to address whether high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels within the normal range can predict the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in healthy male subjects. Among15347 male workers between 30 and 59 years old who received annual health check-ups in 2002, a NAFLD-free cohort of 4,138 was followed through December 2009. Alcohol consumption was assessed with a questionnaire. At each visit, abdominal ultrasonography was performed to identify fatty liver disease. The COX proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the relationship between hs-CRP and incident NAFLD. During the follow-up period, 28.8% (1191 of 4138) of participants developed NAFLD. The hazard ratios of NAFLD were increased by hs-CRP categories within the normal range in the non-adjusted model and age-adjusted model. After adjusting for age, exercise, smoking, BMI, systolic BP, triglyceride, and fasting glucose, these incidences were only increased between the lowest and the highest hs-CRP categories. The risk for NAFLD increased as the hs-CRP level increased (p< 0.001). As the hs-CRP level increased within the healthy cohort, the risk of developing NAFLD increased. This trend remained true even if the hs-CRP level remained within the normal range. hs-CRP can be used as a predictor of NAFLD, as well as other obesity-associated diseases. Therefore, individuals with higher hs-CRP levels (even within the normal range) may require appropriate follow-up and management to prevent NAFLD development.
Gilbert, Marius; Golding, Nick; Zhou, Hang; Wint, G R William; Robinson, Timothy P; Tatem, Andrew J; Lai, Shengjie; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Hui; Guo, Danhuai; Huang, Zhi; Messina, Jane P; Xiao, Xiangming; Linard, Catherine; Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Martin, Vincent; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W; Farrar, Jeremy J; Hay, Simon I; Yu, Hongjie
Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease.
Gilbert, Marius; Golding, Nick; Zhou, Hang; Wint, G. R. William; Robinson, Timothy P.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Lai, Shengjie; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Hui; Guo, Danhuai; Huang, Zhi; Messina, Jane P.; Xiao, Xiangming; Linard, Catherine; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Martin, Vincent; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W.; Farrar, Jeremy J.; Hay, Simon I.; Yu, Hongjie
Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease. PMID:24937647
Xia, Ming-Feng; Yki-Järvinen, Hannele; Bian, Hua; Lin, Huan-Dong; Yan, Hong-Mei; Chang, Xin-Xia; Zhou, You; Gao, Xin
Objectives Presence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can predict risks for diabetes, cardiovascular disease and advanced liver disease in the general population. We aimed to establish a non-invasive score for prediction of NAFLD in Han Chinese, the largest ethnic group in the world, and detect whether ethnicity influences the accuracy of such a score. Methods Liver fat content (LFAT) was measured by quantitative ultrasound in 3548 subjects in the Shanghai Changfeng Community and a Chinese score was created using multivariate logistic regression analyses. This new score was internally validated in Chinese and externally in Finns. Its diagnostic performance was compared to the NAFLD liver fat score, fatty liver index (FLI) and hepatic steatosis index (HSI) developed in Finns, Italians and Koreans. We also analyzed how obesity related to LFAT measured by 1H-MRS in 79 Finns and 118 Chinese with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Results The metabolic syndrome and T2D, fasting serum insulin, body mass index (BMI) and AST/ALT ratio were independent predictors of NAFLD in Chinese. The AUROC in the Chinese validation cohort was 0.76 (0.73–0.78) and in Finns 0.73 (0.68–0.78) (p<0.0001). 43%, 27%, 32% and 42% of Chinese had NAFLD when determined by the Chinese score, NAFLD liver fat score (p<0.001 vs. Chinese score), FLI (p<0.001) and HSI (NS). For any given BMI and waist circumference, the Chinese had a markedly higher LFAT than the Finns. Conclusion The predictors of NAFLD in Han Chinese are as in Europids but the Chinese have more LFAT for any given degree of obesity than Europids. Ethnicity needs to be considered when NAFLD is predicted using risk scores. PMID:27579785
Spoelder, Marcia; Tsutsui, Kimberly T; Lesscher, Heidi M B; Vanderschuren, Louk J M J; Clark, Jeremy J
Adolescent alcohol use remains a major public health concern due in part to well-established findings implicating the age of onset in alcohol use in the development of alcohol use disorders and persistent decision-making deficits in adults. We have previously demonstrated that moderate adolescent alcohol consumption in rats promotes suboptimal decision making and an associated perturbation in mesolimbic dopamine transmission in adulthood. Dopamine-dependent incentive learning processes are an integral component of value-based decision making and a fundamental element to many theoretical accounts of addiction. Thus we tested the hypothesis that adolescent alcohol use selectively alters incentive learning processes through perturbation of mesolimbic dopamine systems. To assess incentive learning, behavioral and neurochemical measurements were made during the acquisition, maintenance, extinction, and reacquisition of a Pavlovian conditioned approach procedure in adult rats with a history of adolescent alcohol consumption. We show that moderate adolescent alcohol consumption potentiates stimulus-evoked phasic dopamine transmission, measured in vivo by fast-scan cyclic voltammetry, in adulthood and biases individuals toward a dopamine-dependent incentive learning strategy. Moreover, we demonstrate that animals exposed to alcohol in adolescence are more sensitive to an unexpected variation in reward outcomes. This pattern of phasic dopamine signaling and the associated bias in learning may provide a mechanism for the well-documented vulnerability of individuals with early-life alcohol use for alcohol use disorders in adulthood. PMID:25971592
Spoelder, Marcia; Tsutsui, Kimberly T; Lesscher, Heidi M B; Vanderschuren, Louk J M J; Clark, Jeremy J
Adolescent alcohol use remains a major public health concern due in part to well-established findings implicating the age of onset in alcohol use in the development of alcohol use disorders and persistent decision-making deficits in adults. We have previously demonstrated that moderate adolescent alcohol consumption in rats promotes suboptimal decision making and an associated perturbation in mesolimbic dopamine transmission in adulthood. Dopamine-dependent incentive learning processes are an integral component of value-based decision making and a fundamental element to many theoretical accounts of addiction. Thus we tested the hypothesis that adolescent alcohol use selectively alters incentive learning processes through perturbation of mesolimbic dopamine systems. To assess incentive learning, behavioral and neurochemical measurements were made during the acquisition, maintenance, extinction, and reacquisition of a Pavlovian conditioned approach procedure in adult rats with a history of adolescent alcohol consumption. We show that moderate adolescent alcohol consumption potentiates stimulus-evoked phasic dopamine transmission, measured in vivo by fast-scan cyclic voltammetry, in adulthood and biases individuals toward a dopamine-dependent incentive learning strategy. Moreover, we demonstrate that animals exposed to alcohol in adolescence are more sensitive to an unexpected variation in reward outcomes. This pattern of phasic dopamine signaling and the associated bias in learning may provide a mechanism for the well-documented vulnerability of individuals with early-life alcohol use for alcohol use disorders in adulthood.
Seth, Puja; Wingood, Gina M.; Robinson, LaShun S.; DiClemente, Ralph J.
The impact of alcohol use on the efficacy of an HIV/STI intervention designed for young African-American women in predicting STIs was examined. Eight hundred forty-eight African-American women, 18–29 years, were randomly assigned to either the HIV/STI intervention or a control condition. Participants were assessed on alcohol use and provided two vaginal swab specimens for STI testing. Women in the intervention who consumed alcohol were less likely to test STI-positive than women in the control and abstainers (AOR = 2.47, 95 % CI = 1.01–6.22). STI risk factors may vary across different populations. Further research on heavy drinking and HIV intervention efficacy is needed. PMID:23979497
Lachenmeier, Dirk W.; Kanteres, Fotis; Kuballa, Thomas; López, Mercedes G.; Rehm, Jürgen
Ethyl carbamate (EC) is a recognized genotoxic carcinogen, with widespread occurrence in fermented foods and beverages. No data on its occurrence in alcoholic beverages from Mexico or Central America is available. Samples of agave spirits including tequila, mezcal, bacanora and sotol (n=110), and of the sugarcane spirit cuxa (n=16) were purchased in Mexico and Guatemala, respectively, and analyzed for EC. The incidence of EC contamination was higher in Mexico than in Guatemala, however, concentrations were below international guideline levels (<0.15 mg/L). Risk assessment found the Margin of Exposure (MOE) in line with that of European spirits. It is therefore unlikely that EC plays a role in high rates of liver cirrhosis reported in Mexico. PMID:19440288
Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Kanteres, Fotis; Kuballa, Thomas; López, Mercedes G; Rehm, Jürgen
Ethyl carbamate (EC) is a recognized genotoxic carcinogen, with widespread occurrence in fermented foods and beverages. No data on its occurrence in alcoholic beverages from Mexico or Central America is available. Samples of agave spirits including tequila, mezcal, bacanora and sotol (n=110), and of the sugarcane spirit cuxa (n=16) were purchased in Mexico and Guatemala, respectively, and analyzed for EC. The incidence of EC contamination was higher in Mexico than in Guatemala, however, concentrations were below international guideline levels (<0.15 mg/L). Risk assessment found the Margin of Exposure (MOE) in line with that of European spirits. It is therefore unlikely that EC plays a role in high rates of liver cirrhosis reported in Mexico.
Jiang, Jiaqi; Gu, Rongbao
This paper generalizes the method of traditional singular value decomposition entropy by incorporating orders q of Rényi entropy. We analyze the predictive power of the entropy based on trajectory matrix using Shanghai Composite Index and Dow Jones Index data in both static test and dynamic test. In the static test on SCI, results of global granger causality tests all turn out to be significant regardless of orders selected. But this entropy fails to show much predictability in American stock market. In the dynamic test, we find that the predictive power can be significantly improved in SCI by our generalized method but not in DJI. This suggests that noises and errors affect SCI more frequently than DJI. In the end, results obtained using different length of sliding window also corroborate this finding.
Baranger, David A. A.; Ifrah, Chloé; Prather, Aric A.; Carey, Caitlin E.; Corral-Frías, Nadia S.; Drabant Conley, Emily; Hariri, Ahmad R.; Bogdan, Ryan
Increasing evidence suggests that the circadian and stress regulatory systems contribute to alcohol use disorder (AUD) risk, which may partially arise through effects on reward-related neural function. The C allele of the PER1 rs3027172 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reduces PER1 expression in cells incubated with cortisol and has been associated with increased risk for adult AUD and problematic drinking among adolescents exposed to high levels of familial psychosocial adversity. Using data from undergraduate students who completed the ongoing Duke Neurogenetics Study (DNS) (n = 665), we tested whether exposure to early life stress (ELS; Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) moderates the association between rs3027172 genotype and later problematic alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) as well as ventral striatum (VS) reactivity to reward (card-guessing task while functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired). Initial analyses found that PER1 rs3027172 genotype interacted with ELS to predict both problematic drinking and VS reactivity; minor C allele carriers, who were also exposed to elevated ELS reported greater problematic drinking and exhibited greater ventral striatum reactivity to reward-related stimuli. When gene × covariate and environment × covariate interactions were controlled for, the interaction predicting problematic alcohol use remained significant (p < 0.05, corrected) while the interaction predicting VS reactivity was no longer significant. These results extend our understanding of relationships between PER1 genotype, ELS, and problematic alcohol use, and serve as a cautionary tale on the importance of controlling for potential confounders in studies of moderation including gene × environment interactions. PMID:27065929
Brickham, Dana M.
People with alcohol abuse/dependence disabilities are often faced with a complex recovery process due to the exacerbating and chronic aspects of their condition. Vocational rehabilitation for people with alcohol abuse/dependence can help individuals access and maintain employment, and through employment can enhance physical and psychological…
Ladd, Benjamin O.; McCrady, Barbara S.
The current study aimed to examine whether classification of couples in which one partner has an alcohol problem is similar to that reported in the general couples literature. Typologies of couples seeking Alcohol Behavioral Couple Therapy (ABCT) were developed via hierarchical cluster analysis using behavioral codes of couple interactions during their first ABCT session. Four couples types based on in-session behavior were established reliably, labeled Avoider, Validator, Hostile, and Ambivalent-Detached. These couple types resembled couples types found in previous research. Couple type was associated with baseline relationship satisfaction, but not alcohol use. Results suggest heterogeneity in couples with alcohol problems presenting to treatment; further study is needed to investigate the function of alcohol within these different types. PMID:25808432
López-Riera, Mireia; Conde, Isabel; Tolosa, Laia; Zaragoza, Ángela; Castell, José V; Gómez-Lechón, María J; Jover, Ramiro
Background and Aims: Drug-induced steatosis is a major reason for drug failure in clinical trials and post-marketing withdrawal; and therefore, predictive biomarkers are essential. These could be particularly relevant in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), where most patients show features of the metabolic syndrome and are prescribed with combined chronic therapies, which can contribute to fatty liver. However, specific biomarkers to assess the contribution of drugs to NAFLD are lacking. We aimed to find microRNAs (miRNAs) responsive to steatotic drugs and to investigate if they could become circulating biomarkers for drug-induced steatosis. Methods: Human HepG2 cells were treated with drugs and changes in miRNA levels were measured by microarray and qRT-PCR. Drug-induced fat accumulation in HepG2 was analyzed by high-content screening and enzymatic methods. miRNA biomarkers were also analyzed in the sera of 44 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients and in 10 controls. Results: We found a set of 10 miRNAs [miR-22-5p, -3929, -24-2-5p, -663a, -29a-3p, -21 (5p and 3p), -27a-5p, -1260 and -202-3p] that were induced in human HepG2 cells and secreted to the culture medium upon incubation with model steatotic drugs (valproate, doxycycline, cyclosporin A and tamoxifen). Moreover, cell exposure to 17 common drugs for NAFLD patients showed that some of them (e.g., irbesartan, fenofibrate, and omeprazole) also induced these miRNAs and increased intracellular triglycerides, particularly in combinations. Finally, we found that most of these miRNAs (60%) were detected in human serum, and that NAFLD patients under fibrates showed both induction of these miRNAs and a more severe steatosis grade. Conclusion: Steatotic drugs induce a common set of hepatic miRNAs that could be used in drug screening during preclinical development. Moreover, most of these miRNAs are serum circulating biomarkers that could become useful in the diagnosis of iatrogenic steatosis.
López-Riera, Mireia; Conde, Isabel; Tolosa, Laia; Zaragoza, Ángela; Castell, José V.; Gómez-Lechón, María J.; Jover, Ramiro
Background and Aims: Drug-induced steatosis is a major reason for drug failure in clinical trials and post-marketing withdrawal; and therefore, predictive biomarkers are essential. These could be particularly relevant in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), where most patients show features of the metabolic syndrome and are prescribed with combined chronic therapies, which can contribute to fatty liver. However, specific biomarkers to assess the contribution of drugs to NAFLD are lacking. We aimed to find microRNAs (miRNAs) responsive to steatotic drugs and to investigate if they could become circulating biomarkers for drug-induced steatosis. Methods: Human HepG2 cells were treated with drugs and changes in miRNA levels were measured by microarray and qRT-PCR. Drug-induced fat accumulation in HepG2 was analyzed by high-content screening and enzymatic methods. miRNA biomarkers were also analyzed in the sera of 44 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients and in 10 controls. Results: We found a set of 10 miRNAs [miR-22-5p, -3929, -24-2-5p, -663a, -29a-3p, -21 (5p and 3p), -27a-5p, -1260 and -202-3p] that were induced in human HepG2 cells and secreted to the culture medium upon incubation with model steatotic drugs (valproate, doxycycline, cyclosporin A and tamoxifen). Moreover, cell exposure to 17 common drugs for NAFLD patients showed that some of them (e.g., irbesartan, fenofibrate, and omeprazole) also induced these miRNAs and increased intracellular triglycerides, particularly in combinations. Finally, we found that most of these miRNAs (60%) were detected in human serum, and that NAFLD patients under fibrates showed both induction of these miRNAs and a more severe steatosis grade. Conclusion: Steatotic drugs induce a common set of hepatic miRNAs that could be used in drug screening during preclinical development. Moreover, most of these miRNAs are serum circulating biomarkers that could become useful in the diagnosis of iatrogenic steatosis. PMID:28179883
Cook, Robert W.; Zallocco, Ronald L.
A multi-attribute attitude model was used to determine whether a multicriteria scale can be used to predict student preferences for and attendance at universities. Data were gathered from freshmen attending five state universities in Ohio. The results indicate a high level of predictability. (Author/MLW)
Rubin, Emanuel; Lieber, Charles S.
Describes research on synergistic effects of alcohol and other drugs, particularly barbiturates. Proposes biochemical mechanisms to explain alcoholics' tolerance of other drugs when sober, and increased sensitivity when drunk. (AL)
Plummer, Jonathan; Schreider, Sergei
The market for temporary water allocations in the Northern Victoria Regulated river system has matured to the point where new instruments to manage risk can be of benefit to water users. One of these instruments could be a series of option contracts issued by the Water Authority. However a serious impediment to the introduction of options is the variation in prices across seasons. Prices jump between the end of one season and the beginning of the next mean that appropriate option strike prices cannot be determined until a period of trading in the new season allows price discovery to take place. This prevents an options market being available at the beginning of the season when it is most useful to irrigators. In this paper we look at winter rainfall for the town of Jamieson, upstream of Lake Eildon and the volume of water in Lake Eildon as predictors of the price of temporary water allocations at the beginning of the irrigation season. We develop a climate driven regression model which allows us to link the inter-seasonal jumps with the biophysical parameters of the system. By better understanding the factors dictating the size of the price jumps between seasons options can be developed that are not restricted to the current season. We also consider the implications of the infrastructure upgrades currently underway and recent policy changes on the market for temporary water allocations. The carryover policy which allows water to be kept for use in subsequent seasons, and the reserve policy, which is designed to allow the delivery of initial allocations and water carried over at the start of the irrigation season each year, are two recent policy innovations. These policies should smooth prices and reduce the jump in prices that have been seen between irrigation seasons.
Filimonov, Vladimir; Sornette, Didier
We introduce a measure of activity of financial markets that provides a direct access to their level of endogeneity. This measure quantifies how much of price changes is due to endogenous feedback processes, as opposed to exogenous news. For this, we calibrate the self-excited conditional Poisson Hawkes model, which combines in a natural and parsimonious way exogenous influences with self-excited dynamics, to the E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from 1998 to 2010. We find that the level of endogeneity has increased significantly from 1998 to 2010, with only 70% in 1998 to less than 30% since 2007 of the price changes resulting from some revealed exogenous information. Analogous to nuclear plant safety measures concerned with avoiding “criticality,” our measure provides a direct quantification of the distance of the financial market from a critical state defined precisely as the limit of diverging trading activity in the absence of any external driving.
Filimonov, Vladimir; Sornette, Didier
We introduce a measure of activity of financial markets that provides a direct access to their level of endogeneity. This measure quantifies how much of price changes is due to endogenous feedback processes, as opposed to exogenous news. For this, we calibrate the self-excited conditional Poisson Hawkes model, which combines in a natural and parsimonious way exogenous influences with self-excited dynamics, to the E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from 1998 to 2010. We find that the level of endogeneity has increased significantly from 1998 to 2010, with only 70% in 1998 to less than 30% since 2007 of the price changes resulting from some revealed exogenous information. Analogous to nuclear plant safety measures concerned with avoiding "criticality," our measure provides a direct quantification of the distance of the financial market from a critical state defined precisely as the limit of diverging trading activity in the absence of any external driving.
Chen, Fang; Gou, Chengling; Guo, Xiaoqian; Gao, Jieping
This paper presents the efforts of using the evolutionary mix-game model, which is a modified form of the agent-based mix-game model, to predict financial time series. Here, we have carried out three methods to improve the original mix-game model by adding the abilities of strategy evolution to agents, and then applying the new model referred to as the evolutionary mix-game model to forecast the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. The results show that these modifications can improve the accuracy of prediction greatly when proper parameters are chosen.
Saffer, Henry; Dave, Dhaval
This study investigates the effects of alcohol advertising on adolescent alcohol consumption. The theory of an industry response function and evidence from prior studies indicate the importance of maximizing the variance in advertising measures. Monitoring the Future (MTF) and National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) data are augmented with alcohol advertising, originating on the market level, for five media. The large sample of the MTF allows estimation of race and gender-specific models. The longitudinal nature of the NLSY97 allows controls for unobserved heterogeneity with state-level and individual fixed effects. Price and advertising effects are generally larger for females relative to males. Controls for individual heterogeneity yield larger advertising effects, implying that the MTF results may understate the effects of alcohol advertising. Results from the NLSY97 suggest that a 28% reduction in alcohol advertising would reduce adolescent monthly alcohol participation from 25% to between 24 and 21%. For binge participation, the reduction would be from 12% to between 11 and 8%. The past month price-participation elasticity is estimated at -0.26, consistent with prior studies. The results show that reduction of alcohol advertising can produce a modest decline in adolescent alcohol consumption, though effects may vary by race and gender.
Johansen, Anders; Sornette, Didier
In January 1999, the authors published a quantitative prediction that the Nikkei index should recover from its 14-year low in January 1999 and reach ~20 500 a year later. The purpose of the present paper is to evaluate the performance of this specific prediction as well as the underlying model: the forecast, performed at a time when the Nikkei was at its lowest (as we can now judge in hindsight), has correctly captured the change of trend as well as the quantitative evolution of the Nikkei index since its inception. As the change of trend from sluggish to recovery was estimated quite unlikely by many observers at that time, a Bayesian analysis shows that a skeptical (resp. neutral) Bayesian sees prior belief in our model amplified into a posterior belief 19 times larger (resp. reach the 95% level).
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Neuropathy - alcoholic; Alcoholic polyneuropathy ... The exact cause of alcoholic neuropathy is unknown. It likely includes both a direct poisoning of the nerve by the alcohol and the effect of poor nutrition ...
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Leve, Leslie D.; Harold, Gordon T.; Van Ryzin, Mark J.; Elam, Kit; Chamberlain, Patricia
Associations between trajectories of depressive symptoms and subsequent tobacco and alcohol use were examined in two samples of girls assessed at age 11.5 (T1), 12.5 (T2), and 13.5 (T3). Two samples were examined to ascertain if there was generalizability of processes across risk levels and cultures. Study 1 comprised a United States-based sample…
Kachadourian, Lorig K; Homish, Gregory G; Quigley, Brian M; Leonard, Kenneth E
The direct and interactive effects of alcohol expectancies for aggression, dispositional hostility, and heavy alcohol consumption on alcohol-related physical aggression were examined across the first four years of marriage in a sample of 634 newlywed couples. For husbands, alcohol aggression expectancies predicted increases in alcohol-related aggression; across husbands and wives, however, aggression expectancies were not found to interact with hostility or alcohol consumption to predict physical aggression. Consistent with previous research, hostility and alcohol consumption interacted with each other to predict alcohol-related aggression. Specifically, for both husbands and wives high in dispositional hostility, heavy alcohol consumption was positively associated with the occurrence of alcohol-related aggression; for those low in dispositional hostility, however, there was no association between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related aggression. Findings are contrasted with previous longitudinal research on alcohol aggression expectancies and physical aggression in married couples. The article discusses the extent to which findings may vary depending on whether expectancies are assessed in relation to alcohol's effect on one's own behavior versus alcohol's effect on others' behavior.
... 84 Alcohol Alert Number 84 Print Version The Genetics of Alcoholism Why can some people have a ... to an increased risk of alcoholism. Cutting-Edge Genetic Research in Alcoholism Although researchers already have made ...
Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier
We analyze 27 house price indices of Las Vegas from June 1983 to March 2005, corresponding to 27 different zip codes. These analyses confirm the existence of a real estate bubble, defined as a price acceleration faster than exponential, which is found, however, to be confined to a rather limited time interval in the recent past from approximately 2003 to mid-2004 and has progressively transformed into a more normal growth rate comparable to pre-bubble levels in 2005. There has been no bubble till 2002 except for a medium-sized surge in 1990. In addition, we have identified a strong yearly periodicity which provides a good potential for fine-tuned prediction from month to month. A monthly monitoring using a model that we have developed could confirm, by testing the intra-year structure, if indeed the market has returned to “normal” or if more turbulence is expected ahead. We predict the evolution of the indices one year ahead, which is validated with new data up to September 2006. The present analysis demonstrates the existence of very significant variations at the local scale, in the sense that the bubble in Las Vegas seems to have preceded the more global USA bubble and has ended approximately two years earlier (mid-2004 for Las Vegas compared with mid-2006 for the whole of the USA).
Herridge, Bart; Heil, Robert
Predictive modeling has been a popular topic in higher education for the last few years. This case study shows an example of an effective use of modeling combined with market segmentation to strategically divide large, unmanageable prospect and inquiry pools and convert them into applicants, and eventually, enrolled students. (Contains 6 tables.)
Wilson, Kristina; Albarracín, Dolores
Understanding barriers to accepting HIV-prevention counseling among vulnerable populations is of critical importance, as prevention efforts can only have a public health impact if high-risk populations are willing to enroll. A correlational field study was conducted in a health care setting with a high-risk community sample (N = 350) to determine if number of sex partners and alcohol consumption predict acceptance of an invitation to take part in HIV-prevention counseling. Findings indicated that participants engaging in the least risky behavior (i.e. individuals reporting no alcohol consumption and few sex partners) were more likely to accept an offer to receive HIV-prevention counseling. Moreover, heavy drinking was associated with decreased exposure to HIV-prevention counseling, regardless of the number of sex partners reported (b = .12, p > .05). Given associations between heavy drinking and sexual risk taking, finding ways to increase exposure to HIV-prevention counseling programs among heavy drinkers could serve a vital public health function.
Wilson, Kristina; Albarracín, Dolores
Understanding barriers to accepting HIV-prevention counseling among vulnerable populations is of critical importance, as prevention efforts can only have a public health impact if high-risk populations are willing to enroll. A correlational field study was conducted in a health care setting with a high-risk community sample (N = 350) to determine if number of sex partners and alcohol consumption predict acceptance of an invitation to take part in HIV-prevention counseling. Findings indicated that participants engaging in the least risky behavior (i.e., individuals reporting no alcohol consumption, and few sex partners) were more likely to accept an offer to receive HIV-prevention counseling. Moreover, heavy drinking was associated with decreased exposure to HIV-prevention counseling, regardless of the number of sex partners reported (b = .12, p > .05). Given associations between heavy drinking and sexual risk taking, finding ways to increase exposure to HIV-prevention counseling programs among heavy drinkers could serve a vital public health function. PMID:24684497
Perez, Richard; Taljaard, Monica; Hennessy, Deirdre; Wilson, Kumanan; Tanuseputro, Peter; Bennett, Carol; Tuna, Meltem; Fisher, Stacey; Rosella, Laura C.
Background Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. Methods A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death—the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)—was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. Findings The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867–0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868–0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). Conclusions Multivariable
Birjandi, Mehdi; Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad Taghi; Pourahmad, Saeedeh; Safarpour, Ali Reza
Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common form of liver disease in many parts of the world. Objectives The aim of the present study was to identify the most important factors influencing NAFLD using a classification tree (CT) to predict the probability of NAFLD. Patients and Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in Kavar, a town in the south of Fars province, Iran. A total of 1,600 individuals were selected for the study via the stratified method and multiple-stage cluster random sampling. A total of 30 demographic and clinical variables were measured for each individual. Participants were divided into two datasets: testing and training. We used the training dataset (1,120 individuals) to build the CT and the testing dataset (480 individuals) to assess the CT. The CT was also used to estimate class and to predict fatty liver occurrence. Results NAFLD was diagnosed in 22% of the individuals in the sample. Our findings revealed that the following variables, based on univariate analysis, had a significant association with NAFLD: marital status, history of hepatitis B vaccine, history of surgery, body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), triglycerides (TG), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), cholesterol (CHO0, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), glucose (GLU), albumin (AL), and age (P < 0.05). The main affecting variables for predicting NAFLD based on the CT and in order of importance were as follows: BMI, WHR, triglycerides, glucose, SBP, and alanine aminotransferase. The goodness of fit model based on the training and testing datasets were as follows: prediction accuracy (80%, 75%), sensitivity (74%, 73%), specificity (83%, 77%), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (78%, 75%), respectively. Conclusions The CT is a suitable and easy-to-interpret approach for decision-making and predicting NAFLD. PMID
Hoffman, Eric W.; Pinkleton, Bruce E.; Weintraub Austin, Erica; Reyes-Velázquez, Wanda
Objective: Alcohol marketers have increasingly moved their advertising efforts into digital and social media venues. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate associations between students' use of social media, their exposure to alcohol marketing messages through social media, and their alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors.…
Bailey, Anne Lowrey
Giving patterns in the six years following a stock market drop in 1960 showed that giving actually went up during those years. However, in the case of very wealthy donors, they reduced large gifts to colleges. ( MLW)
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Objective: To analyse the impact of the alcohol market on the implementation of strong-willed public alcohol abuse prevention policies based on a critical review of the literature. Method: Documentary research and analysis of the alcohol market economic data were performed. An overview of public alcohol abuse prevention policies was conducted from a historical perspective by distinguishing drunkenness control policies, protection of vulnerable populations, and the fight against drink driving and drinking in the workplace. Results: Public alcohol abuse prevention policies are primarily designed to reduce the harmful consequences of alcohol occurring as a result of a drinking episode (motor vehicle accident, highway accidents, etc.), while neglecting the long-term consequences (cancer, cirrhosis, etc.). Moreover, while taxation is one of the major public health tools used to reduce the costs of alcohol-related damage on society, the State exercises legislative and tax protection for alcoholic beverages produced in France. In particular, wine benefits from a lower tax rate than other stronger forms of alcohol (spirits, liquors, etc.). The economic weight of the alcohol market can provide an explanation for these public alcohol abuse prevention policies. Conclusion: In view of the mortality caused by alcohol abuse, France must implement a proactive public policy. An alcohol taxation policy based on the alcohol content, a minimum unit pricing for alcohol, or higher taxes on alcohol are public policies that could be considered in order to reduce alcohol-related mortality.
Parker, Helen M; O'Connor, Helen T; Keating, Shelley E; Cohn, Jeffrey S; Garg, Manohar L; Caterson, Ian D; George, Jacob; Johnson, Nathan A
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an independent predictor of CVD in otherwise healthy individuals. Low n-3 PUFA intake has been associated with the presence of NAFLD; however, the relationship between a biomarker of n-3 status - the Omega-3 Index - and liver fat is yet to be elucidated. A total of eighty overweight adults (fifty-six men) completed the anthropometric and biochemical measurements, including the Omega-3 Index, and underwent proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy assessment of liver fat. Bivariate correlations and multiple regression analyses were performed with reference to prediction of liver fat percentage. The mean Omega-3 Index was high in both NAFLD (intrahepatic lipid concentration≥5·5 %) and non-NAFLD groups. The Omega-3 Index, BMI, waist circumference, glucose, insulin, TAG, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) were positively correlated, and HDL and erythrocyte n-6:n-3 ratio negatively correlated with liver fat concentration. Regression analysis found that simple anthropometric and demographic variables (waist, age) accounted for 31 % of the variance in liver fat and the addition of traditional cardiometabolic blood markers (TAG, HDL, hsCRP and ALT) increased the predictive power to 43 %. The addition of the novel erythrocyte fatty acid variable (Omega-3 Index) to the model only accounted for a further 3 % of the variance (P=0·049). In conclusion, the Omega-3 Index was associated with liver fat concentration but did not improve the overall capacity of demographic, anthropometric and blood markers to predict NAFLD.
Mills, Jon K.
Administered Internal-External Control Scale to 22 male alcoholics in residential treatment and 8 adult male children of alcoholics (COAs) in outpatient counseling. Contrary to prediction, alcoholics demonstrated external control orientation. COAs also exhibited external locus of control. Alcoholics in first residential treatment demonstrated more…
Marmorstein, Naomi R.
This study examined whether urgency, a disposition to rash action under conditions of strong emotion, moderates associations between internalizing symptoms and alcohol use and related expectancies. Data from the Camden Youth Development Study, a longitudinal, community-based study of early adolescents (N = 144, mean age at intake = 11.9 years; 65% Hispanic, 30% African-American; 50% male), were used. Self-report questionnaire measures of depressive symptoms, social and generalized anxiety symptoms, urgency, alcohol use, and alcohol expectancies were used. Mixed models were used to examine the effects of internalizing symptoms, urgency, and their interaction on alcohol use and expectancy trajectories over time. Depressive symptoms interacted with urgency such that youth with high levels of both tended to have elevated levels of global positive alcohol expectancies. Social anxiety symptoms interacted with urgency to be associated with increasing levels of social behavior alcohol expectancies such that youth with high levels of both tended to experience particular increases in these expectancies over time. Generalized anxiety was not found to be associated with alcohol-related constructs. Therefore, high levels of urgency combine with depressive and social anxiety symptoms to be associated with particularly increased risk for alcohol expectancies that are associated with later alcohol use and problems, indicating particular risk for youth with these combinations of personality traits and psychopathology symptoms. PMID:27512337
Wicks, Mariaan; Wright, Hattie; Wentzel-Viljoen, Edelweiss
The WHO has called for governments to improve children's food environment by implementing restrictions on the marketing of 'unhealthy' foods to children. Nutrient profiling (NP) models are used to define 'unhealthy' foods and support child-directed food marketing regulations. The aim of the present study was to assess the suitability of the South African NP model (SANPM), developed and validated for health claim regulations, for child-directed food marketing regulations. The SANPM was compared with four NP models specifically developed for such regulations. A representative list of 197 foods was compiled by including all foods advertised on South African free-to-air television channels in 2014 and foods commonly consumed by South African children. The nutritional information of the foods was sourced from food packaging, company websites and a food composition table. Each individual food was classified by each of the five NP models. The percentage of foods that would be allowed according to the different NP models ranged from 6 to 45 %; the models also varied considerably with regard to the type of foods allowed for marketing to children. The majority of the pairwise comparisons between the NP models yielded κ statistics >0·4, indicating a moderate agreement between the models. An almost perfect pairwise agreement (κ=0·948) existed between the SANPM and the UK Food Standards Agency model (United Kingdom Office of Communication nutrient profiling model), a model extensively tested and validated for such regulations. The SANPM is considered appropriate for child-directed food marketing regulations in South Africa.
Wiesner, Margit; Kim, Hyoun K.; Capaldi, Deborah M.
This longitudinal study extended previous work of Wiesner and Capaldi (2003) by examining the validity of differing offending pathways and the prediction from the pathways to substance use and depressive symptoms for 204 young men. Findings from this study indicated good external validity of the offending trajectories. Further, substance use and depressive symptoms in young adulthood (i.e., ages 23-24 through 25-26 years) varied depending on different trajectories of offending from early adolescence to young adulthood (i.e., ages 12-13 through 23-24 years), even after controlling for antisocial propensity, parental criminality, demographic factors, and prior levels of each outcome. Specifically, chronic high-level offenders had higher levels of depressive symptoms and engaged more often in drug use compared with very rare, decreasing low-level, and decreasing high-level offenders. Chronic low-level offenders, in contrast, displayed fewer systematic differences compared with the two decreasing offender groups and the chronic high-level offenders. The findings supported the contention that varying courses of offending may have plausible causal effects on young adult outcomes beyond the effects of an underlying propensity for crime. PMID:15971769
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Xun, Yun-Hao; Guo, Jian-Chun; Lou, Guo-Qiang; Jiang, Yan-Ming; Zhuang, Zhen-Jie; Zhu, Meng-Fei; Luo, Yan; Ma, Xiao-Jie; Liu, Jing; Bian, Dong-Xue; Shi, Jun-Ping
The non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score (NFS) has emerged as a useful predictor of long-term outcome in NAFLD patients. We evaluated the predictive performance of the NFS for overall mortality in a Chinese population with NAFLD. All NAFLD patients diagnosed ultrasonographically at Xixi Hospital of Hangzhou between 1996 and 2011 were retrospectively recruited to the study. Outcome was determined by interview and causes of death were confirmed by medical records. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC ) was used to determine the predictive accuracy of the NFS, BARD (body mass index, aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio, diabetes) score, FIB-4 index and the AST/platelet ratio index (APRI) for mortality. Data from a total of 180 eligible patients (median age 39 years; 96 men) were analysed, with 12 deaths over a median follow-up period of 6.6 years (range 0.5-14.8 years). Using Cox model analysis, the NFS as a continuous variable was identified as the only predictor for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.743, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.670-4.504). The NFS yielded the highest AUCROC of 0.828 (95% CI 0.728-0.928, P < 0.05), followed by the FIB-4 index, APRI and BARD score (AUCROC 0.806 (P < 0.05), 0.732 (P < 0.05) and 0.632, respectively). The data indicated that the NFS is a useful predictor of 6.6-year all-cause mortality for Chinese patients with NAFLD.
Kraus, David; Fehr, Jan; Conen, Anna; Calmy, Alexandra; Orasch, Christina; Battegay, Manuel; Schmid, Patrick; Bernasconi, Enos; Furrer, Hansjakob
Objectives: In HIV-negative populations, light-to-moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower cardiovascular morbidity and mortality than alcohol abstention. Whether the same holds true for HIV-infected individuals has not been evaluated in detail. Design: Cohort study. Methods: Adults on antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with follow-up after August 2005 were included. We categorized alcohol consumption into: abstention or very low (<1 g/d), low (1–9 g/d), moderate (10–29 g/d in women and 10–39 g/d in men), and high alcohol intake. Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease-free survival (combined endpoint), cardiovascular disease events (CADE) and overall survival. Baseline and time-updated risk factors for CADE were included in the models. Results: Among 9741 individuals included, there were 788 events of major CADE or death during 46,719 patient-years of follow-up, corresponding to an incidence of 1.69 events/100 person-years. Follow-up according to alcohol consumption level was 51% no or very low, 20% low, 23% moderate, and 6% high intake. As compared with no or very low alcohol intake, low (hazard ratio 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.98) and moderate alcohol intakes (0.78, 0.64 to 0.95) were associated with a lower incidence of the combined endpoint. There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and CADE. Conclusions: Compared with no or very low alcohol consumption, low and moderate intake associated with a better CADE-free survival. However, this result was mainly driven by mortality and the specific impact of drinking patterns and type of alcoholic beverage on this outcome remains to be determined. PMID:26444500
Wimer, W.W.; Russell, J.A.; Kaplan, H.L.
A comprehensive reference volume which summarizes literature reports of the known consequences of human and animal contact with alcohols and alcohol-derived substances is presented. Following a discussion of alcohol nomenclature and a brief history of alcohols, the authors have provided detailed chapters on the toxicology of methanol, ethanol, normal and isopropanol, and the butanols. Properties of these alcohols are compared; industrial hygiene and exposure limits are discussed. Additional sections are included covering processing and production technology and exhaust emissions studies. Of particular interest are the section containing abstracts and synopses of principal works and the extensive bibliography of studies dating from the 1800s. 331 references, 26 figures, 56 tables
Technology is creating customer choice, and choice is altering the marketplace. Gone are the days of the marketer as salesperson. Gone as well is marketing that tries to trick the customer into buying whatever the company makes. There is a new paradigm for marketing, a model that depends on the marketer's knowledge, experience, and ability to integrate the customer and the company. Six principles are at the heart of the new marketing. The first, "Marketing is everything and everything is marketing," suggests that marketing is like quality. It is not a function but an all-pervasive way of doing business. The second, "The goal of marketing is to own the market, not just to sell the product," is a remedy for companies that adopt a limiting "market-share mentality." When you own a market, you lead the market. The third principle says that "marketing evolves as technology evolves." Programmable technology means that companies can promise customers "any thing, any way, any time." Now marketing is evolving to deliver on that promise. The fourth principle, "Marketing moves from monologue to dialogue," argues that advertising is obsolete. Talking at customers is no longer useful. The new marketing requires a feedback loop--a dialogue between company and customer. The fifth principle says that "marketing a product is marketing a service is marketing a product." The line between the categories is fast eroding: the best manufacturing companies provide great service, the best service companies think of themselves as offering high-quality products. The sixth principle, "Technology markets technology," points out the inevitable marriage of marketing and technology and predicts the emergence of marketing workstations, a marketing counterpart to engineers' CAD/CAM systems.
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Chamsi-Pasha, Hassan; Chamsi-Pasha, Majed; Albar, Mohammed Ali
Alcohol use disorders (AUDs)-a spectrum including at-risk drinking, alcohol abuse, dependence, and addiction-is a highly prevalent problem worldwide with a substantial economic impact. The toll of alcohol on individual health and healthcare systems is devastating. Alcohol is estimated to be the fifth leading risk factor for global disability-adjusted life years. Tackling the problem of AUD requires a comprehensive strategy that includes solid action on price, availability, and marketing of alcohol. Restricting or banning alcohol advertising may reduce exposure to the risk posed by alcohol at the individual and general population level. Warning labels about the cancer risks associated with drinking have a high degree of public support and may be an inexpensive and acceptable way to educate the public. Religiosity may reduce risk behaviors and contribute to health decision making related to alcohol use.
Orquin, Jacob L.; Jeppesen, Heine B.; Scholderer, Joachim; Haugtvedt, Curtis
In an attempt to discover new possibilities for advertising in uncluttered environments marketers have recently begun using ambient advertising in, for instance, bars and pubs. However, advertising in such licensed premises have to deal with the fact that many consumers are under the influence of alcohol while viewing the ad. This paper examines the effect of alcohol intoxication on attention to and memory for advertisements in two experiments. Study 1 used a forced exposure manipulation and revealed increased attention to logos under alcohol intoxication consistent with the psychopharmacological prediction that alcohol intoxication narrows attention to the more salient features in the visual environment. Study 2 used a voluntary exposure manipulation in which ads were embedded in a magazine. The experiment revealed that alcohol intoxication reduces voluntary attention to ads and leads to a significant reduction in memory for the viewed ads. In popular terms consuming one or two beers reduces brand recall from 40 to 36% while being heavily intoxicated further reduces brand recall to 17%. PMID:24723899
Orquin, Jacob L; Jeppesen, Heine B; Scholderer, Joachim; Haugtvedt, Curtis
In an attempt to discover new possibilities for advertising in uncluttered environments marketers have recently begun using ambient advertising in, for instance, bars and pubs. However, advertising in such licensed premises have to deal with the fact that many consumers are under the influence of alcohol while viewing the ad. This paper examines the effect of alcohol intoxication on attention to and memory for advertisements in two experiments. Study 1 used a forced exposure manipulation and revealed increased attention to logos under alcohol intoxication consistent with the psychopharmacological prediction that alcohol intoxication narrows attention to the more salient features in the visual environment. Study 2 used a voluntary exposure manipulation in which ads were embedded in a magazine. The experiment revealed that alcohol intoxication reduces voluntary attention to ads and leads to a significant reduction in memory for the viewed ads. In popular terms consuming one or two beers reduces brand recall from 40 to 36% while being heavily intoxicated further reduces brand recall to 17%.
Gilmore, William; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Stockwell, Tim; Jernigan, David; Naimi, Timothy; Gilmore, Ian
Alcohol consumption is a global phenomenon, as is the resultant health, social and economic harm. The nature of these harms varies with different drinking patterns and with the societal and political responses to the burden of harm; nevertheless, alcohol-related chronic diseases have a major effect on health. Strong evidence exists for the effectiveness of different strategies to minimize this damage and those policies that target price, availability and marketing of alcohol come out best, whereas those using education and information are much less effective. However, these policies can be portrayed as anti-libertarian and so viewing them in the context of alcohol-related harm to those other than the drinker, such as the most vulnerable in society, is important. When this strategy is successful, as in Scotland, it has been possible to pass strong and effective legislation, such as for a minimum unit price for alcohol.
Murnane, Richard J.; Willett, John B.; Braatz, M. Jay; Duhaldeborde, Yves
Uses National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data to examine whether measures of male teenagers' skills (academic, reasoning, and self-esteem) predict their wages at ages 27 and 28. All three skill types help predict subsequent wages, but have differing importance in explaining white/minority wage gaps. (Contains 37 references.) (MLH)
Attwood, Angela S
Consumption of alcohol mixed with caffeinated energy drinks is becoming popular, and the number of pre-mixed caffeinated alcohol products on the worldwide market is increasing. There is public health concern and even occasional legal restriction relating to these drinks, due to associations with increased intoxication and harms. The precise nature and degree of the pharmacological relationship between caffeine and alcohol is not yet elucidated, but it is proposed that caffeine attenuates the sedative effects of alcohol intoxication while leaving motor and cognitive impairment unaffected. This creates a potentially precarious scenario for users who may underestimate their level of intoxication and impairment. While legislation in some countries has restricted production or marketing of pre-mixed products, many individuals mix their own energy drink-alcohol 'cocktails'. Wider dissemination of the risks might help balance marketing strategies that over-emphasize putative positive effects.
Tang, Yi-lang; Xiang, Xiao-jun; Wang, Xu-yi; Cubells, Joseph F; Babor, Thomas F; Hao, Wei
In China, alcohol consumption is increasing faster than anywhere else in the world. A steady increase in alcohol production has also been observed in the country, together with a rise in alcohol-related harm. Despite these trends, China's policies on the sale and consumption of alcoholic beverages are weak compared with those of other countries in Asia. Weakest of all are its policies on taxation, drink driving laws, alcohol sale to minors and marketing licenses. The authors of this descriptive paper draw attention to the urgent need for public health professionals and government officials in China to prioritize population surveillance, research and interventions designed to reduce alcohol use disorders. They describe China's current alcohol policies and recent trends in alcohol-related harm and highlight the need for health officials to conduct a thorough policy review from a public health perspective, using as a model the World Health Organization's global strategy to reduce the harmful use of alcohol.
Futrell, Gene; And Others
This marketing unit focuses on the importance of forecasting in order for a farm family to develop marketing plans. It describes sources of information and includes a glossary of marketing terms and exercises using both fundamental and technical methods to predict prices in order to improve forecasting ability. The unit is organized in the…
Gökmen, Fatma Yahyaoğlu; Ahbab, Süleyman; Ataoğlu, Hayriye Esra; Türker, Betül Çavuşoğlu; Çetin, Faik; Türker, Fatih; Mamaç, Rabia Yahyaoğlu; Yenigün, Mustafa
OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to evaluate the effects of metabolic parameters and thyroid dysfunction on the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: The current study evaluated a total of 115 patients, 75 female and 40 male. Physical examination and anthropometric measurements were applied to all participants. Hypothyroidism was considered at a thyroid stimulating hormone level ≥ 4.1 mIU/L. Patients with euthyroidism and patients with hypothyroidism were compared. Abdominal ultrasonography was used to diagnose non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The participants were further compared with regard to the presence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Logistic regression modeling was performed to identify the relationship between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and independent variables, such as metabolic parameters and insulin resistance. RESULTS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was identified in 69 patients. The mean waist circumference, body mass index, fasting plasma insulin, HOMA-IR (p<0.001) and FT3/FT4 ratio (p=0.01) values were significantly higher in the patients with NAFLD compared to those without it. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that FT3/FT4 ratio, waist circumference and insulin resistance were independent risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. CONCLUSION: Insulin resistance, enlarged waist circumference, elevated body mass index, higher FT3/FT4 ratio and hypertriglyceridemia are independent risk factors for NADLF, whereas hypothyroidism is not directly related to the condition. PMID:27166773
Fadardi, Javad Salehi; Cox, W Miles
Prior studies aimed at explaining cognitive-motivational reasons for drinking have focused on either cognitive or motivational factors, but not on both. This study examined the ability of both alcohol-attentional bias and motivational structure to predict alcohol consumption. Participants were university students (N=87) who completed a battery of tests, including the Personal Concerns Inventory (a measure of adaptive and maladaptive motivation), an alcohol Stroop test (a measure of alcohol-attentional bias), and an alcohol-use inventory. Regression, moderation, and mediation analyses showed that (a) maladaptive motivation and alcohol-attentional bias were positive predictors of alcohol consumption after participants' age, gender, and executive cognitive functioning had been controlled, and (b) maladaptive motivation and alcohol-attentional bias independently predicted alcohol consumption. The implications of the results for both theory and practice are discussed.
Southwell, Brian G; Slater, Jonathan S; Rothman, Alexander J; Friedenberg, Laura M; Allison, Tiffany R; Nelson, Christina L
Engaging social networks to encourage preventive health behavior offers a supplement to conventional mass media campaigns and yet we do not fully understand the conditions that facilitate or hamper such interpersonal diffusion. One set of factors that should affect the diffusion of health campaign information involves a person's community. Variables describing geographic communities should predict the likelihood of residents accepting campaign invitations to pass along information to friends, family, and others. We investigate two aspects of a community--the availability of community ties and residential stability--as potential influences on diffusion of publicly-funded breast cancer screening in the United States in 2008-2009. In a survey study of 1515 participants living in 91 zip codes across the State of Minnesota, USA, we focus on the extent to which women refer others when given the opportunity to nominate family, friends, and peers to receive free mammograms. We predicted nomination tendency for a particular zip code would be a function of available community ties, measured as religious congregation density in that zip code, and also expected the predictive power of available ties would be greatest in communities with relatively high residential stability (meaning lower turnover in home residence). Results support our hypotheses. Congregation density positively predicted nomination tendency both in bivariate analysis and in Tobit regression models, and was most predictive in zip codes above the median in residential stability. We conclude that having a local infrastructure of social ties available in a community predicts the diffusion of available health care services in that community.
It is reported that Savannah Foods and Industries, in a joint venture with United States Sugar Corporation have applied for a loan guarantee for the production of alcohol from agricultural commodities. The two phase program calls for research and development, before a prototype plant will be built for the conversion of cellulosic compounds found in bagasse into alcohol for use as a fuel.
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One out of 2 Americans report drinking on a routine basis, making the excessive consumption of alcohol the third leading cause of preventable death in America (). Alcoholism and depression are common comorbidities that home healthcare professionals frequently encounter. To achieve the best patient outcomes, alcoholism should be addressed initially. Although all age groups are at risk, alcoholism and depression occur in more than 8 percent of older adults. Prevention through identifying alcohol use early in adolescence is vital to reduce the likelihood of alcohol dependence. This article provides an overview of the long-term effects of alcohol abuse, including alcoholic cirrhosis and hepatic encephalopathy. The diagnostic criteria for substance dependence and ideas for nonthreatening screening questions to use with patients who are adolescent or older are discussed. While providing patient care, home healthcare nurses share the patient's intimate home environment. This environment is perceived as a safe haven by the patient and home care nurses can take advantage of counseling and treatment opportunities in this nonthreatening environment.
The marketing of alcohol products in African-American communities has, on occasion, stirred national controversy and met with fierce resistance from African Americans and others. Despite occasional media and community spotlights on the marketing of alcohol products in the African-American community, there has been no systematic review of the…
Through the years and every passing fad, radio has continued to be a basic fact of life for youth in the United States. The Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth commissioned Virtual Media Resources (VMR) to audit alcohol radio advertising in 2001 and 2002 and to conduct a case study of alcohol radio advertising in December 2002 and January 2003…
The concern about alcohol marketing and underage drinking has been heightened by recent findings in the scientific research community. Studies have established that alcohol advertising exposure influences a young person's beliefs about alcohol and his/her intention to drink. They also suggest that advertising may have a direct impact on youth…
Rao, V.; Walzer, N.
Because of the importance of corn to the Illinois economy, the use of corn in the production of fuel alcohol offered major economic benefits for the state. One of the advantages to Illinois resulting from the use of corn to produce ethanol was increased employment. Expansion of the alcohol fuels industry meant greater employment in the alcohol industry directly as well as increased employment in the industries indirectly involved in alcohol production. Finally, the increased income generated by the greater employment would create additional jobs throughout the economy. The increased employment which could result from an expansion of the alcohol fuels industry was estimated. The employment is estimated by first estimating the demand for gasoline and gasoline-alcohols fuels based on population and income trends. After the demand for gasoline-alcohol fuels has been estimated, the direct, indirect, and induced employment resulting from various market shares are determined.
Sudhinaraset, May; Wigglesworth, Christina; Takeuchi, David T.
Alcohol use and misuse account for 3.3 million deaths every year, or 6 percent of all deaths worldwide. The harmful effects of alcohol misuse are far reaching and range from individual health risks, morbidity, and mortality to consequences for family, friends, and the larger society. This article reviews a few of the cultural and social influences on alcohol use and places individual alcohol use within the contexts and environments where people live and interact. It includes a discussion of macrolevel factors, such as advertising and marketing, immigration and discrimination factors, and how neighborhoods, families, and peers influence alcohol use. Specifically, the article describes how social and cultural contexts influence alcohol use/misuse and then explores future directions for alcohol research. PMID:27159810
Children and adolescents are particularly vulnerable to the harmful effects of alcohol, with heavy drinking risking impaired brain development and future alcohol dependence. Advertisements increase expectancies about alcohol, leading to a greater likelihood of drinking. A systematic review of 13 longitudinal studies of over 38,000 young people found convincing evidence of an impact of media exposure and alcohol advertising on subsequent alcohol use, including initiation of drinking and heavier drinking among existing drinkers. All European countries, with the exception of the UK, have a ban on one or more types of advertising. Since self-regulation is reported as failing to prevent marketing which has an impact on younger people, and since advertising commonly crosses country borders, there is an argument to approximate advertising rules across Europe banning alcohol advertising targeted at young people, a highly cost-effective measure to reduce harmful alcohol use, and one supported by European citizens and case law.
Heung, Carly M; Rempel, Benjamin; Krank, Marvin
Research evidence points to harmful effects from alcohol advertising among children and youth. In particular, exposure to alcohol advertising has been associated with adolescents drinking both earlier and heavier. Although current federal and provincial guidelines have addressed advertising practices to prevent underage drinking, practice has not been supported by existing policy. While protective measures such as social marketing campaigns have the potential for counteracting the effects from alcohol advertising, the effectiveness of such measures can be easily drowned out with increasing advertising activities from the alcohol industry, especially without effective regulation. Research reviewed by the European Focus on Alcohol Safe Environment (FASE) Project has identified a set of key elements that are necessary to make alcohol advertising policy measures effective at protecting children and youth from the harmful effects of alcohol marketing. Using these key elements as an evaluation framework, there are critical components in the Canadian alcohol advertising regulatory system that clearly require strengthening. To protect impressionable children and youth against the harmful effects of alcohol advertising, 13 recommendations to strengthen current alcohol advertising regulations in Canada are provided for Canadian policy-makers, advertising standard agencies, and public health groups.
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Development of a prediction model and estimation of cumulative risk for upper aerodigestive tract cancer on the basis of the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 genotype and alcohol consumption in a Japanese population
Koyanagi, Yuriko N.; Ito, Hidemi; Oze, Isao; Hosono, Satoyo; Tanaka, Hideo; Abe, Tetsuya; Shimizu, Yasuhiro; Hasegawa, Yasuhisa
Alcohol consumption and the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) polymorphism are associated with the risk of upper aerodigestive tract cancer, and a significant gene–environment interaction between the two has been confirmed in a Japanese population. To aid the development of a personalized prevention strategy, we developed a risk-prediction model and estimated absolute risks stratified by a combination of the ALDH2 genotype and alcohol consumption. We carried out two age-matched and sex-matched case–control studies: one (630 cases and 1260 controls) for model derivation and the second (654 cases and 654 controls) for external validation. On the basis of data from the derivation study, a prediction model was developed by fitting a conditional logistic regression model using the following predictors: age, sex, smoking, drinking, and the ALDH2 genotype. The risk model, including a combination of the ALDH2 genotype and alcohol consumption, provided high discriminatory accuracy and good calibration in both the derivation and the validation studies: C statistics were 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.80–0.84) and 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.81–0.85), respectively, and the calibration plots of both studies remained close to the ideal calibration line. Cumulative risks were obtained by combining odds ratios estimated from the risk model with the age-specific incidence rate and population size. For heavy drinkers with a heterozygous genotype, the cumulative risk at age 80 was above 20%. In contrast, risk in the other groups was less than 5%. In conclusion, modification of alcohol consumption according to the ALDH2 genotype will have a major impact on upper aerodigestive tract cancer prevention. These findings represent a simple and practical model for personalized cancer prevention. PMID:26862830
Monks, Stormy M; Tomaka, Joe; Palacios, Rebecca; Thompson, Sharon E
Alcohol and alcohol expectancies relate to sexual victimization. The present study examined these links in a sample of 407 predominantly Hispanic male and female college students, along the Mexico-US border. The study also examined the independent contribution of sexual sensation seeking to the prediction of victimization. Results showed that victimization was associated with alcohol risk, alcohol consumption-related problems, and positive alcohol expectancies. Importantly, sexual sensation seeking independently predicted victimization and did so after controlling for alcohol risk and expectancies. Our results suggest that associations among victimization, alcohol risk, and expectancies generalize to Hispanic women and men. The study's limitations are noted.
Aims This exploratory trial examines the feasibility of implementing a social norms marketing campaign to reduce student drinking in universities in Wales, and evaluating it using cluster randomised trial methodology. Methods Fifty residence halls in 4 universities in Wales were randomly assigned to intervention or control arms. Web and paper surveys were distributed to students within these halls (n = 3800), assessing exposure/contamination, recall of and evaluative responses to intervention messages, perceived drinking norms and personal drinking behaviour. Measures included the Drinking Norms Rating Form, the Daily Drinking Questionnaire and AUDIT-C. Results A response rate of 15% (n = 554) was achieved, varying substantially between sites. Intervention posters were seen by 80% and 43% of students in intervention and control halls respectively, with most remaining materials seen by a minority in both groups. Intervention messages were rated as credible and relevant by little more than half of students, though fewer felt they would influence their behaviour, with lighter drinkers more likely to perceive messages as credible. No differences in perceived norms were observed between intervention and control groups. Students reporting having seen intervention materials reported lower descriptive and injunctive norms than those who did not. Conclusions Attention is needed to enhancing exposure, credibility and perceived relevance of intervention messages, particularly among heavier drinkers, before definitive evaluation can be recommended. A definitive evaluation would need to consider how it would achieve sufficient response rates, whilst hall-level cluster randomisation appears subject to a significant degree of contamination. Trial registration ISRCTN: ISRCTN48556384 PMID:23594918
Caccia, Silvio; Pasina, Luca; Nobili, Alessandro
Unexpected drug interactions have led to the withdrawal of many drugs, raising concern about the gap between what is known at the time of approval and the risk of serious effects in the longer term, particularly in high-risk populations generally excluded from drug development. This is because the majority of drug interaction studies are done using in vitro methods, or in healthy young volunteers who may not reflect the complexity of patients, and the settings in which the drug will be used in clinical practice. Pre-marketing interaction studies should therefore be designed to make information easily accessible and clinically transferable. They should be adequate in terms of sample size, population, comorbidity, phenotyping and/or genotyping, end-points and outcome measures, and conducted in conditions of dose, route and timing of co-administration that reproduce the proposed therapeutic indications of the new drug. Although young volunteers have the advantage of minimizing some confounding effects introduced by diseases or polypharmacy, patients drawn from populations for whom the drug is intended would be more relevant and accurate, providing the studies are feasible and safe.
Wachs, Israel E.; Cai, Yeping
Preparing an aldehyde from an alcohol by contacting the alcohol in the presence of oxygen with a catalyst prepared by contacting an intimate mixture containing metal oxide support particles and particles of a catalytically active metal oxide from Groups VA, VIA, or VIIA, with a gaseous stream containing an alcohol to cause metal oxide from the discrete catalytically active metal oxide particles to migrate to the metal oxide support particles and to form a monolayer of catalytically active metal oxide on said metal oxide support particles.
DiLeo, Alyssa; Wright, Kristina M; Mangone, Elizabeth; McDannald, Michael A
Adolescent heavy alcohol drinking increases the risk for alcohol use disorders in adulthood, yet mechanisms conferring increased risk are not well understood. We propose that adolescent alcohol drinking shapes alcohol's aversive or appetitive properties in adulthood. Alcohol normally drives aversive learning and alcohol-predictive cues are avoided. We hypothesize that through adolescent heavy drinking alcohol gains access to appetitive learning. A primary consequence is that alcohol-predictive cues become valued and sought out. To test this hypothesis, we gave genetically heterogeneous, male Long Evans rats voluntary, chronic intermittent access to water or alcohol throughout adolescence and then identified moderate and heavy alcohol drinkers. After a short abstinence period, we assessed the aversive or appetitive properties of alcohol using flavor learning procedures. We compared alcohol to the known appetitive properties of sugar. Flavor learning in adult rats who were alcohol-naïve or adolescent moderate alcohol drinkers revealed alcohol to be aversive and sugar to be appetitive. The same flavor learning procedures revealed both alcohol and sugar to be appetitive in adult rats who were adolescent heavy drinkers. The results demonstrate that alcohol gains access to neurobehavioral circuits for appetitive learning through adolescent heavy alcohol drinking.
Sundberg-Anderson, R. K.; Saylor, J. R.
Mesler entrainment has been studied extensively in water and, more recently, in silicone oils. Studies of Mesler entrainment in liquids other than these are rare. The extant experimental results in water show significant irreproducibility both in the qualitative characteristics of Mesler entrainment and in the existence or nonexistence of Mesler entrainment when, for example, drops of the same diameter are released from the same height. In contrast, in silicone oils, Mesler entrainment is highly reproducible, essentially occurring either all of the time, or none of the time for a given set of conditions. A goal of the present work was to determine which of these two behaviors is the "standard" behavior—that is, to determine whether Mesler entrainment is typically repeatable or not. The experimental studies presented herein were conducted in three liquids that have not been the subject of detailed investigation to date: ethyl alcohol, isopropyl alcohol, and methyl alcohol. All of these alcohol results showed behavior very similar to that observed in silicone oils, suggesting that Mesler entrainment is typically repeatable and that water is an atypical fluid, causing irreproducible results. Additionally, we present data obtained in silicone oils and combine that with the alcohol data in an attempt to develop a combination of dimensionless groups that predicts the boundaries within which Mesler entrainment occurs for liquids other than water.
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... or other preservatives Chemicals, grains or other ingredients Histamine, a byproduct of fermentation or brewing In some ... in some people, possibly as a result of histamines contained in some alcoholic beverages. Your immune system ...
Tests may include: Arterial blood gases (measure the acid/base balance and oxygen level in blood) Blood alcohol ... PA: Elsevier Saunders; 2013:chap 161. Seifter JL. Acid-Base disorders. In: Goldman L, Schafer AI, eds. Goldman's ...
... Seeing or feeling things that aren't there (hallucinations) Seizures Severe confusion ... alcohol withdrawal. You will be watched closely for hallucinations and other signs of delirium tremens. Treatment may ...
Maisto, Stephen A.; Krenek, Marketa; Chung, Tammy; Martin, Christopher S.; Clark, Duncan; Cornelius, Jack
The authors compared 3 measures of readiness to change alcohol use commonly used in clinical research and practice with adolescents: the Readiness Ruler, the SOCRATES (subscales of Recognition and Taking Steps), and a Staging Algorithm. The analysis sample consisted of 161 male and female adolescents presenting for intensive outpatient…
Morgenstern, Matthis; Schoeppe, Franziska; Campbell, Julie; Braam, Marloes W.G.; Stoolmiller, Michael; Sargent, James D.
Background There is little alcohol research that reports on the thematic contents of contemporary alcohol advertisements in US television. Studies of alcohol ads from two decades ago did not identify “partying” as a social theme. Aim of the present study was to describe and classify alcohol advertisements aired in national television in terms of contents, airing times, and channel placements and to identify different marketing strategies of alcohol brands. Methods Content analysis of all ads from the top 20 US beer and spirit brands aired between July 2009 and June 2011. These were 581 unique alcohol ads accounting for 272,828 (78%) national television airings. Ads were coded according to predefined definitions of 13 content areas. A latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted to define content cluster themes and determine alcoholic brands that were more likely to exploit these themes. Results About half of the advertisements (46%) were aired between 3am and 8pm, and the majority were placed either in Entertainment (40%) and Sports (38%) channels. Beer ads comprised 64% of the sample, with significant variation in airing times and channels between types of products and brands. LCA revealed five content classes that exploited the “Partying”, “Quality”, “Sports”, “Manly”, and “Relax” themes. The partying class, indicative of ad messages surrounding partying, love and sex, was the dominant theme, comprising 42% of all advertisements. Ads for alcopops, flavored spirits, and liqueur were more likely to belong to the party class, but there were also some beer brands (Corona, Heineken) where more than 67% of ads exploited this theme. Conclusions This is the first analysis to identify a partying theme to contemporary alcohol advertising. Future analyses can now determine whether exposure to that or other themes predicts alcohol misuse among youth audiences. PMID:26207317
Goschorska, Marta; Gutowska, Izabela; Baranowska-Bosiacka, Irena; Rać, Monika Ewa; Chlubek, Dariusz
The aim of the study was to determine the role of alcoholic drinks as a potential source of dietary fluoride by means of measuring fluoride levels in selected alcoholic drinks available on the Polish market that are also diverse in terms of the percentage content of ethanol. The study was conducted on 48 types of drinks with low, medium, and high alcohol content available on the Polish market and offered by various manufacturers, both Polish and foreign. Fluoride concentrations in individual samples were measured by potentiometric method with a fluoride ion-selective electrode. The highest fluoride levels were determined in the lowest percentage drinks (less than 10 % v/v ethanol), with the lowest fluoride levels observed in the highest percentage drinks (above 40 % v/v ethanol). In terms of types of alcoholic drinks, the highest fluoride levels were determined in beers and wines, while the lowest levels were observed in vodkas. These data confirm the fact that alcoholic beverages need to be considered as a significant source of fluoride delivered into the body.
... Alcohol abuse - quitting drinking; Quitting drinking; Quitting alcohol; Alcoholism - deciding to quit ... pubmed/23698791 . National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. Alcohol and health. www.niaaa.nih.gov/alcohol- ...
Remirez, R.; Ryser, J.; Grover, R.
Despite the uncertain prospects for alcohol fuel, a major corn refiner, A.E. Staley Mfg. Co. (Decatur, Illinois), is reported to be building its first grain-alcohol plant in Loudon, Tennessee. The 40 million gal/yr facility has already begun test runs and has been designed to allow winter-time production of fuel and summer-time production of fructose for the sweetener market. The factors for and against gasohol production in the United States are examined, including corn prices and tax incentives.
Sharbanee, Jason M; Stritzke, Werner G K; Wiers, Reinout W; Young, Paul; Rinck, Mike; MacLeod, Colin
The inability to regulate alcohol consumption has been attributed to an imbalance between stimulus-driven behavioral biases, or action tendencies, and the ability to exert goal-directed control, or working memory capacity (WMC). Previous research assessing the interaction between these variables has not considered the effect of whether individuals' current goals or task demands require goal-directed control. Our aim was to examine the potential interaction of appetitive action tendencies and the ability to exert control over these action tendencies as a function of whether task demands require applying control for successful task completion. Two groups of social drinkers (n = 40 per group) who differed in their ability to regulate their alcohol consumption completed a novel variant of the Approach-Avoidance Task (AAT), which separately assessed approach and avoid trials. The approach and avoidance responses differentially require goal-directed control, depending on whether the task-relevant response is incongruent with the stimulus-driven action tendency. Results indicated that (a) group differences in AAT indices were only observed on trials that required an avoidance movement, which are trials where the task-relevant response would be incongruent with an approach action tendency, and (b) the extent of the group differences for these avoidance trials was moderated by individual differences in WMC, such that problem drinkers with lower WMC showed greater behavioral bias toward alcohol than those with higher WMC. These findings suggest that difficulties in regulating alcohol consumption arise from a complex interaction of action-tendencies, WMC, and current goals or task demands.
Anderson, Peter; Amaral-Sabadini, Michaela Bitarello do; Baumberg, Ben; Jarl, Johan; Stuckler, David
Alcohol, like mental health, is a neglected topic in public health discussions. However, it should be defined as a priority public health area because the evidence available to support this is very persuasive. Although only half the world's population drinks alcohol, it is the world's third leading cause of ill health and premature death, after low birth weight and unsafe sex, and the world's greatest cause of ill health and premature death among individuals between 25 and 59 years of age. This article aims to outline current global experiences with alcohol policies and suggests how to communicate better evidence-based policy responses to alcohol-related harm using narratives. The text summarizes 6 actions to provide incentives that would favor a healthier relationship with alcohol in contemporary society. Actions include price and availability changes, marketing regulations, changes in the format of drinking places and on the product itself, and actions designed to nudge people at the time of their purchasing decisions. Communicating alcohol narratives to policymakers more successfully will likely require a discourse emphasizing the reduction of heavy drinking occasions and the protection of others from someone else's problematic drinking.
Bainwol, Suzanne; Gressard, Charles F.
Presents a review and critique of recent research on the rate of Jewish alcoholism. Concludes that alcoholism is probably still relatively rare among Jews. Predictions of future Jewish drinking practices and implications for further research are discussed. (Author/BL)
Futrell, Gene; And Others
This marketing unit focuses on the seasonal and cyclical patterns of livestock markets. Cash marketing, forward contracting, hedging in the futures markets, and the options markets are examined. Examples illustrate how each marketing tool may be useful in gaining a profit on livestock and cutting risk exposure. The unit is organized in the…
The goal of this study was to describe how activists engaged in campaigns to change alcohol policies in inner city areas framed alcohol problems, and whether or not their frameworks reflected major models used in the field, such as the alcoholism as a disease model, an alcohol problems perspective, or a public health approach to alcohol problems. The findings showed that activists’ models shared some aspects with dominant approaches which tend to focus on individuals and to a lesser extent on regulating alcohol marketing and sales. However, activists’ models differed in significant ways by focusing on community level problems with alcohol; on problems with social norms regarding alcohol use; and on the relationship of alcohol use to illicit drugs. PMID:20617029
Ullman, Sarah E.; Karabatsos, George; Koss, Mary P.
Assessed alcohol's role in sexual assaults by male college students. Interactions of alcohol use with assault variables did not suggest any role of alcohol use in predicting sexual aggression severity. Offender propensity to abuse alcohol and victim preassault alcohol use directly and indirectly related to sexual aggression severity. Offender…
Kastin, B; Mandel, L
Sialosis (sialadenosis) is a term used to describe a disorder that involves both secretory and parenchymal changes of the major salivary glands, most commonly the parotid. Seen often in a dental office, it is recognized as an indolent, bilateral, non-inflammatory, non-neoplastic, soft, symmetrical, painless and persistent enlargement of the parotid glands. Four major entities have commonly been associated with this disorder. They are alcoholism, endocrinopathy (particularly diabetes mellitus), maLnutrition and idiopathic. We are reporting a case of alcoholic sialosis with its clinical and diagnostic aspects. It is important for the dental practitioner to recognize sialosis, because it often indicates the existence of an unsuspected systemic disease.
Xuan, Ziming; Blanchette, Jason G.; Heeren, Timothy C.; Swahn, Monica H.; Naimi, Timothy S.
Introduction Stronger alcohol policies predict decreased alcohol consumption and binge drinking in the United States. We examined the relationship between the strength of states’ alcohol policies and alcoholic cirrhosis mortality rates. Methods We used the Alcohol Policy Scale (APS), a validated assessment of policies of the 50 US states and Washington DC, to quantify the efficacy and implementation of 29 policies. State APS scores (theoretical range, 0–100) for each year from 1999 through 2008 were compared with age-adjusted alcoholic cirrhosis death rates that occurred 3 years later. We used Poisson regression accounting for state-level clustering and adjusting for race/ethnicity, college education, insurance status, household income, religiosity, policing rates, and urbanization. Results Age-adjusted alcoholic cirrhosis mortality rates varied significantly across states; they were highest among males, among residents in states in the West census region, and in states with a high proportion of American Indians/Alaska Natives (AI/ANs). Higher APS scores were associated with lower mortality rates among females (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.91 per 10-point increase in APS score; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.84–0.99) but not among males (adjusted IRR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.90–1.04). Among non-AI/AN decedents, higher APS scores were also associated with lower alcoholic cirrhosis mortality rates among both sexes combined (adjusted IRR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82–0.97). Policies were more strongly associated with lower mortality rates among those living in the Northeast and West census regions than in other regions. Conclusions Stronger alcohol policy environments are associated with lower alcoholic cirrhosis mortality rates. Future studies should identify underlying reasons for racial/ethnic and regional differences in this relationship. PMID:26469950
Noel, Jonathan; Lazzarini, Zita; Robaina, Katherine; Vendrame, Alan
Self-regulation has been promoted by the alcohol industry as a sufficient means of regulating alcohol marketing activities. However, evidence suggests that the guidelines of self-regulated alcohol marketing codes are violated routinely, resulting in excessive alcohol marketing exposure to youth and the use of content that is potentially harmful to youth and other vulnerable populations. If the alcohol industry does not adhere to its own regulations the purpose and design of these codes should be questioned. Indeed, implementation of alcohol marketing self-regulation in Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United States was likely to delay statutory regulation rather than to promote public health. Moreover, current self-regulation codes suffer from vague language that may allow the industry to circumvent the guidelines, loopholes that may obstruct the implementation of the codes, lax exposure guidelines that can allow excessive youth exposure, even if properly followed, and a standard of review that may be inappropriate for protecting vulnerable populations. Greater public health benefits may be realized if legislative restrictions were applied to alcohol marketing, and strict statutory alcohol marketing regulations have been implemented and defended successfully in the European Union, with European courts declaring that restrictions on alcohol marketing are proportional to the benefits to public health. In contrast, attempts to restrict alcohol marketing activities in the United States have occurred through private litigation and have been unsuccessful. None the less, repeated violations of industry codes may provide legislators with sufficient justification to pass new legislation and for such legislation to withstand constitutional review in the United States and elsewhere.
Drinking alcohol during pregnancy; Fetal alcohol syndrome - pregnancy; FAS - fetal alcohol syndrome ... group of defects in the baby known as fetal alcohol syndrome. Symptoms can include: Behavior and attention problems Heart ...
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... code here Enter ZIP code here Daily Living: Alcohol for Veterans and the Public Alcohol and Hepatitis: Entire Lesson Overview Alcohol is one ... related to choices you make about your lifestyle . Alcohol and fibrosis Fibrosis is the medical term for ...
Lewis, Travis Pete; Hession, Carol
Alcohol use is often overlooked and more importantly unsuspected in young children 3-11 years of age. Alcohol use in preteens is commonly overlooked when there is growing evidence to suggest that the age at which one begins drinking can be predictive of future problem drinking and other substance abuse. There is a need for health care professionals and elementary school educators to be aware of the real and growing problem of alcohol use from childhood through adolescence. It is sometimes difficult to recognize because many of the effects of alcohol mimic routine presentations seen in children. This article focuses on the significance, contributing factors, effects on the body, comorbidities, and social and psychological effects of alcohol use on children through adolescence. It also examines diagnostic screening for alcohol use in adolescence and the detrimental role of the nurse in assisting with identifying and preventing the problem of alcohol use in childhood through adolescence.
Watts, Thomas D.; Wright, Roosevelt, Jr.
Briefly discusses some aspects of the role of the state and the position of minorities in respect to alcoholism policies and services. Includes case study of a Black alcoholic. Refers readers to studies on Black alcoholism, Native American alcoholism, Hispanic alcoholism, and Asian-American alcoholism. (Author/NB)
Propargyl alcohol ; CASRN 107 - 19 - 7 Human health assessment information on a chemical substance is included in the IRIS database only after a comprehensive review of toxicity data , as outlined in the IRIS assessment development process . Sections I ( Health Hazard Assessments for Noncarcinogenic
Allyl alcohol ; CASRN 107 - 18 - 6 Human health assessment information on a chemical substance is included in the IRIS database only after a comprehensive review of toxicity data , as outlined in the IRIS assessment development process . Sections I ( Health Hazard Assessments for Noncarcinogenic Eff
Isobutyl alcohol ; CASRN 78 - 83 - 1 Human health assessment information on a chemical substance is included in the IRIS database only after a comprehensive review of toxicity data , as outlined in the IRIS assessment development process . Sections I ( Health Hazard Assessments for Noncarcinogenic E
Owens, Meredith Reesman; Bergman, Andrea
This study examined peer deviance, disinhibition, and ADHD symptoms as differential predictors of alcohol use, alcohol use disorder symptoms, and antisocial behavior. It was hypothesized that peer deviance would most strongly predict alcohol use while disinhibition and ADHD would predict alcohol use disorder symptoms and antisocial behavior.…
Weafer, Jessica; Fillmore, Mark T.
The acute impairing effects of alcohol on inhibitory control are well-established, and these disinhibiting effects are thought to play a role in its abuse potential. Alcohol impairment of inhibitory control is typically assessed in the context of arbitrary cues, yet drinking environments are comprised of an array of alcohol-related cues that are thought to influence drinking behavior. Recent evidence suggests that alcohol-related stimuli reduce behavioral control in sober drinkers, suggesting that alcohol impairment of inhibitory control might be potentiated in the context of alcohol cues. The current study tested this hypothesis by examining performance on the attentional-bias behavioral activation (ABBA) task that measures the degree to which alcohol-related stimuli can reduce inhibition of inappropriate responses in a between-subjects design. Social drinkers (N=40) performed the task in a sober condition, and then again following placebo (0.0 g/kg) and a moderate dose of alcohol (0.65 g/kg) in counter-balanced order. Inhibitory failures were greater following alcohol images compared to neutral images in sober drinkers, replicating previous findings with the ABBA task. Moreover, alcohol-related cues exacerbated alcohol impairment of inhibitory control as evidenced by more pronounced alcohol-induced disinhibition following alcohol cues compared to neutral cues. Finally, regression analyses showed that greater alcohol-induced disinhibition following alcohol cues predicted greater self-reported alcohol consumption. These findings have important implications regarding factors contributing to binge or ‘loss of control’ drinking. That is, the additive effect of disrupted control mechanisms via both alcohol-cues and the pharmacological effects of the drug could compromise an individual’s control over ongoing alcohol consumption. PMID:25134023
Thombs, Dennis L.; Wagenaar, Alexander C.; Xuan, Ziming; Aryal, Subhash
Objectives. We examined the associations among zip code demographics, the state alcohol policy environment, and the retail outlet availability of multiple fruit-flavored alcoholic drinks in a can (MFAC). Methods. In a nationally representative sample of zip codes (n = 872), we merged data from 4 sources: publicly available marketing information from 2 major MFAC producers, the US Census Bureau, state alcohol regulatory agencies, and recent research on state alcohol policies. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to examine MFAC outlet availability in the United States. Results. More than 98% of MFAC outlets were off-premises alcohol establishments. After we controlled for population size and the number of licensed on- and off-premises alcohol outlets within zip codes, more families below the poverty line and weaker state alcohol control policies were associated with greater MFAC outlet availability. Conclusions. Economic conditions and alcohol policy environment appeared to be related to MFAC outlet availability, after adjusting for the general availability of alcohol. Research is needed to determine whether MFACs are disproportionately contributing to alcohol-related harm in socially and economically disadvantaged communities. Policies to better regulate the off-premises sale of alcohol are needed. PMID:26180984
Martin, R L; Cloninger, C R; Guze, S B
The interaction of alcohol misuse and major depressive syndromes was examined in 66 convicted women felons. At an initial (index) evaluation and during a 6-yr follow-up, alcohol misuse and depression, although both highly prevalent, were not significantly related. Alcohol misusing and nonmisusing depressives had similar rates of treatment for depression. Follow-up alcohol misuse, occurring in one-quarter of those reinterviewed, was not predicted by an index history of depression even among index alcohol misusers. Nonsignificant trends did suggest some association between the two symptom groups. Depressive subjects with a history of alcohol misuse had a greater rate of depression during follow-up than nonmisusing index depressives. Follow-up misusers had a greater rate of follow-up depression than nonmisusers. Alcohol-related depression could not be discounted simply as a consequence of alcohol misuse. Depression in the context of alcohol misuse was highly predictive of future depression and suicide attempts. The relative independence of alcohol misuse and depression in this group underscores the complexity of their interaction, especially in a population with multiple disorders such as women criminals. The contention that phenomenologically defined major depressive disorders are heterogeneous is supported.
Paek, Hye-Jin; Hove, Thomas
Guided by the assumptions of the social ecological model and the social marketing approach, this study provides a simultaneous and comprehensive assessment of 4 major alcohol reduction strategies for college campuses: school education programs, social norms campaigns, alcohol counter-marketing, and alcohol control policies. Analysis of nationally representative secondary survey data among 5,472 underage students reveals that alcohol marketing seems to be the most formidable risk factor for underage drinking, followed by perceived drinking norms (injunctive norm) and lax policy enforcement. This analysis suggests that, to make social norms campaigns and alcohol control policies more effective, alcohol reduction strategies should be developed to counter the powerful influence of alcohol marketing and promotions.
Aim Concerns have been raised about the impact of alcohol sports sponsorship on harmful consumption, with some countries banning this practice or considering a ban. We review evidence on the relationship between exposure to alcohol sports sponsorship and alcohol consumption. Methods Search of electronic databases (PubMed, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar and International Alcohol Information Database) supplemented by hand searches of references and conference proceedings to locate studies providing data on the impact of exposure to alcohol sports sponsorship and outcomes relating to alcohol consumption. Results Seven studies met inclusion criteria, presenting data on 12,760 participants from Australia, New Zealand, the UK, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Poland. All studies report positive associations between exposure to alcohol sports sponsorship and self-reported alcohol consumption, but the statistical significance of results varies. Two studies found indirect exposure to alcohol sports sponsorship was associated with increased levels of drinking amongst schoolchildren, and five studies found a positive association between direct alcohol sports sponsorship and hazardous drinking amongst adult sportspeople. Conclusion These findings corroborate the results of previous systematic reviews that reported a positive association between exposure to alcohol marketing and alcohol consumption. The relationship between alcohol sports sponsorship and increased drinking amongst schoolchildren will concern policymakers. Further research into the effectiveness of restrictions on alcohol sports sponsorship in reducing harmful drinking is required. PMID:26911984
... to alcohol use Get into trouble with the law, family members, friends, school, or dates because of alcohol THE EFFECTS OF ALCOHOL Alcoholic drinks have different amounts of alcohol in them. Beer is about 5% alcohol, although some beers can ...
Charnley, S. B.; Kress, M. E.; Tielens, A. G. G. M.; Millar, T. J.
We have investigated the gas-phase chemistry in dense cores where ice mantles containing ethanol and other alcohols have been evaporated. Model calculations show that methanol, ethanol, propanol, and butanol drive a chemistry leading to the formation of several large ethers and esters. Of these molecules, methyl ethyl ether (CH3OC2H5) and diethyl ether (C2H5)2O attain the highest abundances and should be present in detectable quantities within cores rich in ethanol and methanol. Gas-phase reactions act to destroy evaporated ethanol and a low observed abundance of gas-phase C,H,OH does not rule out a high solid-phase abundance. Grain surface formation mechanisms and other possible gas-phase reactions driven by alcohols are discussed, as are observing strategies for the detection of these large interstellar molecules.
Grier, Sonya A; Kumanyika, Shiriki
Targeted marketing techniques, which identify consumers who share common needs or characteristics and position products or services to appeal to and reach these consumers, are now the core of all marketing and facilitate its effectiveness. However, targeted marketing, particularly of products with proven or potential adverse effects (e.g., tobacco, alcohol, entertainment violence, or unhealthful foods) to consumer segments defined as vulnerable raises complex concerns for public health. It is critical that practitioners, academics, and policy makers in marketing, public health, and other fields recognize and understand targeted marketing as a specific contextual influence on the health of children and adolescents and, for different reasons, ethnic minority populations and other populations who may benefit from public health protections. For beneficial products, such understanding can foster more socially productive targeting. For potentially harmful products, understanding the nature and scope of targeted marketing influences will support identification and implementation of corrective policies.
Wolfe, Joseph D.
Two theoretical perspectives, role incompatibility and stress proliferation, suggest that age at first birth is associated with alcohol use, but each theory offers distinct predictions about the effect of relatively early parenthood on alcohol use. This study examines the applicability of these perspectives using data spanning over twenty years…
Werner, Gijsbert D A; Strassmann, Joan E; Ivens, Aniek B F; Engelmoer, Daniel J P; Verbruggen, Erik; Queller, David C; Noë, Ronald; Johnson, Nancy Collins; Hammerstein, Peter; Kiers, E Toby
Biological market theory has been used successfully to explain cooperative behavior in many animal species. Microbes also engage in cooperative behaviors, both with hosts and other microbes, that can be described in economic terms. However, a market approach is not traditionally used to analyze these interactions. Here, we extend the biological market framework to ask whether this theory is of use to evolutionary biologists studying microbes. We consider six economic strategies used by microbes to optimize their success in markets. We argue that an economic market framework is a useful tool to generate specific and interesting predictions about microbial interactions, including the evolution of partner discrimination, hoarding strategies, specialized versus diversified mutualistic services, and the role of spatial structures, such as flocks and consortia. There is untapped potential for studying the evolutionary dynamics of microbial systems. Market theory can help structure this potential by characterizing strategic investment of microbes across a diversity of conditions.
Werner, Gijsbert D. A.; Strassmann, Joan E.; Ivens, Aniek B. F.; Engelmoer, Daniel J. P.; Verbruggen, Erik; Queller, David C.; Noë, Ronald; Johnson, Nancy Collins; Hammerstein, Peter; Kiers, E. Toby
Biological market theory has been used successfully to explain cooperative behavior in many animal species. Microbes also engage in cooperative behaviors, both with hosts and other microbes, that can be described in economic terms. However, a market approach is not traditionally used to analyze these interactions. Here, we extend the biological market framework to ask whether this theory is of use to evolutionary biologists studying microbes. We consider six economic strategies used by microbes to optimize their success in markets. We argue that an economic market framework is a useful tool to generate specific and interesting predictions about microbial interactions, including the evolution of partner discrimination, hoarding strategies, specialized versus diversified mutualistic services, and the role of spatial structures, such as flocks and consortia. There is untapped potential for studying the evolutionary dynamics of microbial systems. Market theory can help structure this potential by characterizing strategic investment of microbes across a diversity of conditions. PMID:24474743
Shi, Y.; Gorban, A. N.; Y Yang, T.
This case study tests the possibility of prediction for 'success' (or 'winner') components of four stock & shares market indices in a time period of three years from 02-Jul-2009 to 29-Jun-2012.We compare their performance ain two time frames: initial frame three months at the beginning (02/06/2009-30/09/2009) and the final three month frame (02/04/2012-29/06/2012).To label the components, average price ratio between two time frames in descending order is computed. The average price ratio is defined as the ratio between the mean prices of the beginning and final time period. The 'winner' components are referred to the top one third of total components in the same order as average price ratio it means the mean price of final time period is relatively higher than the beginning time period. The 'loser' components are referred to the last one third of total components in the same order as they have higher mean prices of beginning time period. We analyse, is there any information about the winner-looser separation in the initial fragments of the daily closing prices log-returns time series.The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation with k-NN algorithm is applied on the daily log-return of components using a distance and proximity in the experiment. By looking at the error analysis, it shows that for HANGSENG and DAX index, there are clear signs of possibility to evaluate the probability of long-term success. The correlation distance matrix histograms and 2-D/3-D elastic maps generated from ViDaExpert show that the 'winner' components are closer to each other and 'winner'/'loser' components are separable on elastic maps for HANGSENG and DAX index while for the negative possibility indices, there is no sign of separation.
Simmat-Durand, L; Vellut, N; Lejeune, C; Jauffret-Roustide, M; Mougel, S; Michel, L; Planche, M
Pathways from alcoholism to recovery are documented; less often are those from drug addiction to alcoholism. Biographical approaches allow analyzing how people change their uses and talk about their trajectories of recovery.
Lippy, Caroline; DeGue, Sarah
Sexual violence continues to be a significant public health problem worldwide with serious consequences for individuals and communities. The implementation of prevention strategies that address risk and protective factors for sexual violence at the community level are important components of a comprehensive approach, but few such strategies have been identified or evaluated. The current review explores one potential opportunity for preventing sexual violence perpetration at the community level: alcohol policy. Alcohol policy has the potential to impact sexual violence perpetration through the direct effects of excessive alcohol consumption on behavior or through the impact of alcohol and alcohol outlets on social organization within communities. Policies affecting alcohol pricing, sale time, outlet density, drinking environment, marketing, and college environment are reviewed to identify existing evidence of impact on rates of sexual violence or related outcomes, including risk factors and related health behaviors. Several policy areas with initial evidence of an association with sexual violence outcomes were identified, including policies affecting alcohol pricing, alcohol outlet density, barroom management, sexist content in alcohol marketing, and policies banning alcohol on campus and in substance-free dorms. We identify other policy areas with evidence of an impact on related outcomes and risk factors that may also hold potential as a preventative approach for sexual violence perpetration. Evidence from the current review suggests that alcohol policy may represent one promising avenue for the prevention of sexual violence perpetration at the community level, but additional research is needed to directly examine effects on sexual violence outcomes.
Marczinski, Cecile A
Energy drinks, the fastest growing segment in the beverage market, have become popular mixers with alcohol. The emerging research examining the use of alcohol mixed with energy drinks (AmEDs) indicates that the combination of caffeine-containing energy drinks with alcohol may be riskier than the use of alcohol alone. The public health concerns arising from AmED use are documented in different research domains. Epidemiologic studies reveal that the consumption of AmEDs is frequent among young and underage drinkers, demographic groups that are more likely to experience the harms and hazards associated with alcohol use. In addition, for all consumers, elevated rates of binge drinking and risk of alcohol dependence have been associated with AmED use when compared to alcohol alone. Results from laboratory studies help explain why AmED use is associated with excessive intake of alcohol. When an energy drink (or caffeine) is combined with alcohol, the desire (or urge) to drink more alcohol is more pronounced in both humans and animals than with the same dose of alcohol alone. The experience of drinking alcohol appears to be more rewarding when combined with energy drinks. Given that caffeine in other foods and beverages increases preference for those products, further research on AmEDs may elucidate the underlying mechanisms that contribute to alcohol dependence.
Clark, Ailsa; Tran, Cathy; Weiss, Alexander; Caselli, Gabriele; Nikčević, Ana V; Spada, Marcantonio M
This study investigated the relative contribution of the Big 5 personality factors and alcohol metacognitions in predicting weekly levels of alcohol use in binge drinking university students. No research to date has investigated whether either of these constructs predicts levels of weekly alcohol use in binge drinkers. A sample of university students (n=142) who were classified as binge drinkers were administered the following self-report instruments: NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI; Costa & McCrae, 1992), Positive Alcohol Metacognitions Scale (PAMS; Spada & Wells, 2008), Negative Alcohol Metacognitions Scale (NAMS; Spada & Wells, 2008), and Khavari Alcohol Test (KAT; Khavari & Farber, 1978). Pearson product-moment correlations showed that weekly levels of alcohol use were negatively correlated with agreeableness and conscientiousness and positively correlated with positive alcohol metacognitions about cognitive self-regulation, negative alcohol metacognitions about uncontrollability and negative alcohol metacognitions about cognitive harm. A hierarchical regression analysis revealed that conscientiousness and positive alcohol metacognitions about cognitive self-regulation were the only two significant predictors of weekly levels of alcohol use when controlling for gender. These findings show that being male, low on conscientiousness and high on positive alcohol metacognitions about cognitive self-regulation raises the risk for increased weekly levels of alcohol use in binge drinking university students. The implications of these findings are discussed.
Griffith, Jeanne A.; Kile, Marilyn J.
This paper describes the successful use of student focus groups by the University of Wisconsin--Whitewater Student Health Center to assess marketing strategies for alcohol abuse prevention. The focus group is a group of 13 students who met several times with a facilitator to share perceptions, feelings, and attitudes about alcohol abuse…
Greenfield, Thomas K; Ye, Yu; Nayak, Madhabika B.; Bond, Jason; Kerr, William C.; Trocki, Karen
Preference for on-premise drinking affects likelihood of aggression but how venue affects victimization by other drinkers is less studied. We investigated influence of heavy consumption in specific venues on fighting and assaults by other drinkers in the 2000 US National Alcohol Surveys, a representative telephone survey of adults (n = 7,612). In the prior year 4.5% current drinkers were assaulted by drinkers, while < 2% reported fighting while drinking. Logistic regression analyses showed that where one drank most, and usual and peak amounts drunk there each influenced risks of fighting and (less) being assaulted. For drinking and fighting, heaviest context, usual amount, and difference between usual and peak were all highly significant but adding age and impulsivity/sensation seeking eliminated effect of venue. Victimization risk curves for maximum were exponential: a peak of 10+ drinks showed odds ratios when at another's home, one's own home, and a bar of 4.5, 5.3 and 10.3, respectively (reference 1-2 home drinks); risk curves were steeper for fighting. Maximum amount consumed dominates the venue in which one drinks the most, once selectivity based on personal characteristics is attended to. We suggest interventions should emphasize ways of addressing overdrinking within a range of settings. PMID:23335824
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... The diagnosis of fetal alcohol syndrome. Deutsches Arztebaltt International. 2013;110:703. Ungerer M, et al. In utero alcohol exposure, epigenetic changes and their consequences. Alcohol Research: Current Reviews. 2013;35:37. Coriale G, et al. ...
... Conditions Frequently Asked Questions Español Condiciones Chinese Conditions Fetal Alcohol Syndrome Read in Chinese What is Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS)? Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) describes changes in ...
Liver disease due to alcohol; Cirrhosis or hepatitis - alcoholic; Laennec's cirrhosis ... Alcoholic liver disease occurs after years of heavy drinking. Over time, scarring and cirrhosis can occur. Cirrhosis is the ...
This article looks at a prescribed academic framework for various criteria that serve as a checklist for marketing performance that can be applied to hospital marketing organizations. These guidelines are drawn from some of Dr. Noel Capon of Columbia University's book Marketing Management in the 21st Century and applied to actual practices of hospital marketing organizations. In many ways this checklist can act as a "marketing" balanced scorecard to verify performance effectiveness and develop opportunities for innovation.
Federle, Thomas W; Itrich, Nina R
Pure homologues of [1-14C] C12, C14, and C16 alcohols and the linear alcohol ethoxylates, AE [1-14C alkyl] C13E9 and C16E9 were tested in a batch-activated sludge die-away system to assess their biodegradation kinetics and to predict levels of free alcohol derived from AE biodegradation in treated effluent. First-order rates for primary biodegradation were similar for all alcohols (86-113 h(-1)) and were used to predict removal under typical treatment conditions. Predicted removals of fatty alcohols ranged from 99.76% to 99.85%, consistent with published field data. During the biodegradation of the AE homologues, lower than expected levels of fatty alcohol based upon the assumption that biodegradation occurs through central fission were observed. Rather than fatty alcohols, the major metabolites were polar materials resulting from omega oxidation of the alkyl chain prior to or concurrent with central cleavage. The amounts of free fatty alcohols that were formed from AEs in influent and escape into effluent were negligible due both to their rapid degradation and to the finding that formation of free alcohol through central cleavage is only a minor degradation pathway in activated sludge.
Reyna, Valerie F; Croom, Katherine; Staiano-Coico, Lisa; Lesser, Martin L; Lewis, Deborah; Frank, Jeremy; Marchell, Timothy
Despite minimum drinking age laws, underage college students engage in high levels of risky drinking and reach peak lifetime levels of alcohol dependence. A group of presidents of universities and colleges has argued that these laws promote disrespect for laws in general, and do not prevent drinking or related negative consequences. However, no study has investigated the policy-relevant question of whether students who endorse a personal responsibility to obey drinking laws, regardless of their opinions about the laws, are less likely to drink or to experience negative consequences. Therefore, we compared endorsers to non-endorsers, controlling for race, gender, and baseline outcomes, at two universities (Ns = 2007 and 2027). Neither sample yielded a majority (49% and 38% endorsement), but for both universities, all 17 outcome measures were significantly associated with endorsement across all types of analyses. Endorsers were less likely to drink, drank less, engaged in less high-risk behavior (e.g., heavy/binge drinking), and experienced fewer harms (e.g., physical injury), even when controlling for covariates. Racial/ethnic minority groups were more likely to endorse, compared to White students. By isolating a small window of time between high school and college that produces large changes in drinking behavior, and controlling for covariates, we can begin to hone in on factors that might explain relations among laws, risky behaviors, and harms. Internalization of a social norm to adhere to drinking laws could offer benefits to students and society, but subsequent research is needed to pin down causation and causal mechanisms.
Despite the rapidly increasing prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D), few treatment modalities are currently available. We investigated the hepatic effects of the novel thiazolidinedione (TZDs), lobeglitazone (Duvie) in T2D patients with NAFLD. We recruited drug-naïve or metformin-treated T2D patients with NAFLD to conduct a multicenter, prospective, open-label, exploratory clinical trial. Transient liver elastography (Fibroscan®; Echosens, Paris, France) with controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) was used to non-invasively quantify hepatic fat contents. Fifty patients with CAP values above 250 dB/m were treated once daily with 0.5 mg lobeglitazone for 24 weeks. The primary endpoint was a decline in CAP values, and secondary endpoints included changes in components of glycemic, lipid, and liver profiles. Lobeglitazone-treated patients showed significantly decreased CAP values (313.4 dB/m at baseline vs. 297.8 dB/m at 24 weeks; P = 0.016), regardless of glycemic control. Lobeglitazone improved HbA1C values (7.41% [57.5 mM] vs. 6.56% [48.2 mM]; P < 0.001), as well as the lipid and liver profiles of the treated patients. Moreover, multivariable linear regression analysis showed that hepatic fat reduction by lobeglitazone was independently associated with baseline values of CAP, liver stiffness, and liver enzymes, and metformin use. Lobeglitazone treatment reduced intrahepatic fat content, as assessed by transient liver elastography, and improved glycemic, liver, and lipid profiles in T2D patients with NAFLD. Further randomized controlled trials using liver histology as an end point are necessary to evaluate the efficacy of lobeglitazone for NAFLD treatment (Clinical trial No. NCT02285205). PMID:27914133
Reyna, Valerie F.; Croom, Katherine; Staiano-Coico, Lisa; Lesser, Martin L.; Lewis, Deborah; Frank, Jeremy; Marchell, Timothy
Despite minimum drinking age laws, underage college students engage in high levels of risky drinking and reach peak lifetime levels of alcohol dependence. A group of presidents of universities and colleges has argued that these laws promote disrespect for laws in general, and do not prevent drinking or related negative consequences. However, no study has investigated the policy-relevant question of whether students who endorse a personal responsibility to obey drinking laws, regardless of their opinions about the laws, are less likely to drink or to experience negative consequences. Therefore, we compared endorsers to non-endorsers, controlling for race, gender, and baseline outcomes, at two universities (Ns = 2007 and 2027). Neither sample yielded a majority (49% and 38% endorsement), but for both universities, all 17 outcome measures were significantly associated with endorsement across all types of analyses. Endorsers were less likely to drink, drank less, engaged in less high-risk behavior (e.g., heavy/binge drinking), and experienced fewer harms (e.g., physical injury), even when controlling for covariates. Racial/ethnic minority groups were more likely to endorse, compared to White students. By isolating a small window of time between high school and college that produces large changes in drinking behavior, and controlling for covariates, we can begin to hone in on factors that might explain relations among laws, risky behaviors, and harms. Internalization of a social norm to adhere to drinking laws could offer benefits to students and society, but subsequent research is needed to pin down causation and causal mechanisms. PMID:24078780
McKellar, John; Stewart, Eric; Humphreys, Keith
A positive corelation between Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) involvement and better alcohol-related outcomes has been identified in research studies, but whether this correlation reflects a causal relationship remains a subject of meaningful debate. The present study evaluated the question of whether AA affiliation appears causally related to positive alcohol-related outcomes in a sample of 2,319 male alcohol-dependent patients. An initial structural equation model indicated that 1-year posttreatment levels of AA affiliation predicted lower alcohol-related problems at 2-year follow-up, whereas level of alcohol-related problems at 1-year did not predict AA affiliation at 2-year follow-up. Additional models found that these effects were not attributable to motivation or psychopathology. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that AA participation has a positive effect on alcohol-related outcomes.
Russ, Nason W.; Geller, E. Scott
When given a "blind" taste test prior to a party, college students (N=137) showed no clear preference for Budweiser beer, Bud Light, or low-alcohol beer, but later drank significantly less low-alcohol beer. It was concluded that without improved marketing intervention, low-alcohol beer will not impact on drunk driving among college…
Following on its recent reports on alcohol advertising in national magazines and on television, the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth (CAMY) commissioned Virtual Media Resources (VMR), a media planning and research firm in Natick, Massachusetts, to analyze the alcohol industry's televised "responsibility" ads in 2001, using the same…
... COMMISSION Ethyl Alcohol for Fuel Use: Determination of the Base Quantity of Imports AGENCY: United States... is equal to 7 percent of the U.S. domestic market for fuel ethyl alcohol during the 12-month period...'' of imports of fuel ethyl alcohol, and the Commission transmitted it determinations to the...
Heyser, Charles J.
Alcoholism is one of the most prevalent substance dependence disorders in the world. Advances in research in the neurobiological mechanisms underlying alcohol dependence have identified specific neurotransmitter targets for the development of pharmacological treatments. Acamprosate, marketed under the brand name Campral, is an orally administered drug available by prescription in the U.S. and throughout much of the world for treating alcohol dependence. Its safety and efficacy have been demonstrated in numerous clinical trials worldwide. Here we provide an overview of acamprosate in the context of the neurobiological underpinnings of alcohol dependence. We propose that unlike previously available pharmacotherapies, acamprosate represents a prototype of a neuromodulatory approach in the treatment of alcohol dependence. A neuromodulatory approach seeks to restore the disrupted changes in neurobiology resulting from chronic alcohol intake. It is our opinion that a neuromodulatory approach will provide a heuristic framework for developing more effective pharmacotherapies for alcohol dependence. PMID:20201812
Babor, Thomas; Rehm, Jurgen; Jernigan, David; Vaeth, Patrice; Monteiro, Maristela; Lehman, Hallie
This article describes epidemiological evidence on the association between alcohol use and diabetes, and the implications for clinical management and public health policies in the Americas. Heavy alcohol use is a risk factor for both diabetes and poor treatment adherence, despite evidence that moderate drinking can protect against type 2 diabetes under some circumstances. The burden of disease from diabetes associated with excessive alcohol consumption warrants both clinical and public health measures. On the clinical level, research on early interventions to prevent hazardous drinking shows that new screening, brief intervention, and referral techniques are effective ways to manage hazardous drinking in primary care settings. On the population level, restrictions on alcohol marketing and other alcohol control policies reduce the frequency and intensity of alcohol consumption in at-risk populations. These policy actions are recommended within the context of the World Health Organization's global strategy to reduce the harmful use of alcohol.
Morrison, Christopher; Gruenewald, Paul J.; Ponicki, William R.
Objective: Prior studies suggest that Black and Hispanic minority populations are exposed to greater concentrations of alcohol outlets, potentially contributing to health disparities between these populations and the White majority. We tested the alternative hypothesis that urban economic systems cause outlets to concentrate in low-income areas and, controlling for these effects, lower demand among minority populations leads to fewer outlets. Method: Market potential for alcohol sales, a surrogate for demand, was estimated from survey and census data across census block groups for 50 California cities. Hierarchical Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models then estimated relationships between observed geographic distributions of outlets and the market potential for alcohol, income, population size, and racial and ethnic composition. Results: Market potentials were significantly smaller among lower income Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations. Block groups with greater market potential and lower income had greater concentrations of outlets. When we controlled for these effects, the racial and ethnic group composition of block groups was mostly unrelated to outlet concentrations. Conclusions: Health disparities related to exposure to alcohol outlets are primarily driven by distributions of income and population density across neighborhoods. PMID:26751356
Lower oil prices, increased production, and arguably the most ambitious fuel alcohol program in the world have strengthened Brazil's energy independence since the mid-1970s. Despite political and economic turmoil, Brazil's economy and appetite for energy continue to grow. Now, Brazil moves in a new direction by introducing market reforms in all sectors -- hand in hand with energy conservation and efficiency programs.
Lau-Barraco, Cathy; Braitman, Abby L.; Leonard, Kenneth E.; Padilla, Miguel
The process by which peers or the social network influence individual alcohol use, particularly among adults, remains a necessary area of research. The purpose of the present study was to examine the longitudinal influence of “drinking buddies” on alcohol outcomes (i.e., alcohol use, heavy drinking, and alcohol-related problems) as mediated by alcohol expectancies of social facilitation. Participants were 1347 (men = 660) newly married individuals recruited from the community. They were assessed at the time of marriage and through the 4th wedding anniversary. Longitudinal mediation across time was evaluated using latent growth modeling. Overall, the prospective association between the number of drinking buddies in the social network and all three alcohol outcomes were mediated by alcohol expectancies. In testing group invariance across genders, findings suggest that social facilitation expectancies may be more relevant to men as compared to women in predicting typical alcohol use and alcohol-related problems. Given that the social network may impact alcohol use at least in part through social expectancies, tailoring alcohol interventions to modify these specific beliefs may be particularly beneficial. In addition, strategies that target a drinker’s social network or their drinking buddies specifically may be useful. PMID:22732054
Hussong, A.M.; Wirth, R.J.; Edwards, M.C.; Curran, P.J.; Chassin, L.A.; Zucker, R.A.
We examined heterogeneity in risk for externalizing symptoms in children of alcoholic parents as it may inform the search for entry points into an antisocial pathway to alcoholism. Specifically, we tested whether the number of alcoholic parents in a family, the comorbid subtype of parent alcoholism, and the gender of the child predicted trajectories of externalizing symptoms over the early life course as assessed in high-risk samples of children of alcoholic parents and matched controls. Through integrative analyses of two independent, longitudinal studies, we showed that children with either antisocial alcoholic parents or two alcoholic parents were at greatest risk for externalizing symptoms. Moreover, children with a depressed alcoholic parent did not differ from those with an antisocial alcoholic parent in reported symptoms. These findings were generally consistent across mother-, father- and adolescent-reports of symptoms, child gender and child age (ages 2 through 17), and the two independent studies examined. Multi-alcoholic and comorbid-alcoholic families may thus convey a genetic susceptibility to dysregulation along with environments that both exacerbate this susceptibility and provide few supports to offset it. PMID:17696709
Miller, Joseph; Prichard, Ivanka; Hutchinson, Amanda; Wilson, Carlene
Consuming an unhealthy level of alcohol is a significant problem for some young women. Potential determinants of excess consumption include perceptions of usual consumption among peers-perceptions of what is "normal." The present study examined whether perceptions of social normative endorsement of drinking, operationalized by measures of perceived alcohol consumption of close friends (proximal norms), the consumption of the "average student" (distal norms), and the extent of alcohol-related content posted by peers on Facebook were related to alcohol-related attitudes and self-reported consumption. Female university students (n=129; Mage=21.48 years, SD=3.00) completed an online questionnaire assessing Facebook use, perceived alcohol-related norms, and self-reported alcohol attitudes and consumption. Perceptions of the consumption of the average female student were a negative predictor of attitudes. Positive alcohol attitudes, extent of own alcohol-related photographic posts on Facebook, average female student alcohol consumption, and report of male close friend consumption predicted self-report of own alcohol consumption. Interestingly, female close friend norms failed to predict consumption, whereas male close friend norms predicted consumption but not attitudes, suggesting the possibility of separate cognitive pathways for alcohol-related attitudes and behavior. This study builds on existing research by casting new light on predictors of alcohol-related attitudes, as well as describing the potential role of social networking sites such as Facebook in the formation of social norms and the modulation of drinking behavior.
Tang, Yi-lang; Xiang, Xiao-jun; Wang, Xu-yi; Cubells, Joseph F; Babor, Thomas F
Abstract In China, alcohol consumption is increasing faster than anywhere else in the world. A steady increase in alcohol production has also been observed in the country, together with a rise in alcohol-related harm. Despite these trends, China’s policies on the sale and consumption of alcoholic beverages are weak compared with those of other countries in Asia. Weakest of all are its policies on taxation, drink driving laws, alcohol sale to minors and marketing licenses. The authors of this descriptive paper draw attention to the urgent need for public health professionals and government officials in China to prioritize population surveillance, research and interventions designed to reduce alcohol use disorders. They describe China’s current alcohol policies and recent trends in alcohol-related harm and highlight the need for health officials to conduct a thorough policy review from a public health perspective, using as a model the World Health Organization’s global strategy to reduce the harmful use of alcohol. PMID:23599550
Redmond, W H
This chapter outlines current marketing practice from a managerial perspective. The role of marketing within an organization is discussed in relation to efficiency and adaptation to changing environments. Fundamental terms and concepts are presented in an applied context. The implementation of marketing plans is organized around the four P's of marketing: product (or service), promotion (including advertising), place of delivery, and pricing. These are the tools with which marketers seek to better serve their clients and form the basis for competing with other organizations. Basic concepts of strategic relationship management are outlined. Lastly, alternate viewpoints on the role of advertising in healthcare markets are examined.
Pearson, Matthew R; Hustad, John T P
The present study examined three alcohol-perception variables (descriptive norms, injunctive norms, and college-related alcohol beliefs) as mediators of the predictive effects of four personality traits (impulsivity, sensation seeking, anxiety sensitivity, and hopelessness) on alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences in a sample of mandated college students (n=875). Our findings replicated several findings of a previous study of incoming freshman college students (Hustad et al., in press) in that impulsivity and hopelessness had direct effects on alcohol-related problems, sensation seeking and impulsivity had indirect effects on alcohol-related outcomes via college-related alcohol beliefs, and college-related alcohol beliefs predicted both alcohol use and alcohol-related problems. We discuss the implications of our findings for global college student interventions as well as personality-targeted interventions.
Cotti, Chad; Dunn, Richard A; Tefft, Nathan
We investigate how risky health behaviors and self-reported health vary with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and during stock market crashes. Because stock market indices are leading indicators of economic performance, this research contributes to our understanding of the macroeconomic determinants of health. Existing studies typically rely on the unemployment rate to proxy for economic performance, but this measure captures only one of many channels through which the economic environment may influence individual health decisions. We find that large, negative monthly DJIA returns, decreases in the level of the DJIA, and stock market crashes are widely associated with worsening self-reported mental health and more cigarette smoking, binge drinking, and fatal car accidents involving alcohol. These results are consistent with predictions from rational addiction models and have implications for research on the association between consumption and stock prices.
Slater, Michael D.; And Others
Examines the efficacy of alcohol education programs. This study (N=83) found that recency of exposure to alcohol education classes and discussion of alcohol advertising in those classes predicts adolescent cognitive resistance (counterarguing) to persuasive alcohol advertising for months or even years. Suggests greater attention to critical…
Juth, Vanessa; Smyth, Joshua M.; Thompson, Kevin; Nodes, Jennifer
Research on alcohol consumption among college students is often limited by self-reported outcomes and a narrow focus of predictor factors. This study examined both traditional risk factors for alcohol use as well as broader factors (e.g., weather, seasons) in predicting objective negative outcomes of alcohol use--alcohol-related legal infractions…
Three drugs are currently marketed in France in the prevention of relapse in alcohol-dependent patients. Their efficacy though real remains limited and it is useful to develop other molecules. Some products are at present under evaluation, and are already or could be used in the near future in the treatment of alcohol dependence: baclofene, oxybate de sodium (GHB), nalmefene, topiramate, ondansetron and aripiprazole. The available studies on these molecules are still limited and the results sometimes clinically modest. Nevertheless, some of them open interesting future prospects. If there is no big revolution to wait in the short term in the treatment of alcohol dependence, we can consider some interesting orientations: better effectiveness on alcohol consumption, but also change of paradigm concerning the objectives and the methods of this treatment: reduction of consumption versus abstinence, treatment on request, choice of the molecule guided by objective criteria (psychosocial, biological, genetic...).
Allison, Michael G; McCurdy, Michael T
Ethanol intoxication and ethanol use are associated with a variety of metabolic derangements encountered in the Emergency Department. In this article, the authors discuss alcohol intoxication and its treatment, dispel the myth that alcohol intoxication is associated with hypoglycemia, comment on electrolyte derangements and their management, review alcoholic ketoacidosis, and end with a section on alcoholic encephalopathy.
... of the National Academies (IOM) diagnostic categories: 4 » Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) » Partial FAS (pFAS) » Alcohol-Related Neurodevelopmental Disorder ( ... 301.443.3860 Relevant Clinical Diagnoses IOM Diagnoses Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) was the first ...
Speer, Rita D.
Nurses' attitudes toward the alcoholic can have a profound impact on the person suffering from alcoholism. These attitudes can affect the alcoholic's care and even whether the alcoholic chooses to recover. This study investigated attitudes of approximately 68 nurses employed in hospitals, 49 nurses in treatment facilities, 58 nursing students, and…
Krois, Deborah Helen
Although alcoholism has long been considered a serious problem, the impact of parental alcoholism on children has only recently begun to receive attention from researchers and clinicians. A review of the empirical literature on children of alcoholics was conducted and it was concluded that children raised in an alcoholic family are at increased…
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Henderson, Karla A.
A marketing model for camps includes a mix of services, presentation, and communication elements that promote the virtues of camp, convince potential campers and their families of the benefits of camp, and successfully distinguish the camp from others. Includes resources related to marketing strategies, theme merchandise, and market trends…
Alcohol is widely consumed across the world in different cultural and social settings. Types of alcohol consumption differ between (a) light, only occasional consumption, (b) heavy chronic alcohol consumption, and (c) binge drinking as seen as a new pattern of alcohol consumption among teenagers and young adults. Heavy alcohol consumption is detrimental to many organs and tissues, including bones. Osteoporosis is regularly mentioned as a secondary consequence of alcoholism, and chronic alcohol abuse is established as an independent risk factor for osteoporosis. The review will present the different mechanisms and effects of alcohol intake on bone mass, bone metabolism, and bone strength, including alcoholism-related "life-style factors" such as malnutrition, lack of exercise, and hormonal changes as additional causative factors, which also contribute to the development of osteoporosis due to alcohol abuse.
Barnett, Nancy P.; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Kahler, Christopher W.; Colby, Suzanne M.
Alcohol use during young adulthood may reflect a learning process whereby positive and negative alcohol-related experiences and interpretations of those experiences drive subsequent behavior. Understanding the effect of consequences and the evaluation of consequences could be informative for intervention approaches. Objective To examine the extent to which the number of positive and negative alcohol consequences experienced and the evaluation of those consequences predict subsequent alcohol use and consequences in college students. Method Students at three colleges (N = 679) completed biweekly web-based surveys on alcohol use, positive and negative consequences, and consequence evaluations for two academic years. Hierarchical linear modeling tested whether consequences and evaluations in a given week predicted changes in alcohol use and consequences at the next assessment. Moderation by gender and class year also were evaluated. Results Evaluating past-week negative consequences more negatively than one’s average resulted in decreases in alcohol use at the next assessment. More negative evaluation of negative consequences was followed in the subsequent observation by a higher number of positive consequences for females but not males. A higher number of positive consequences in a given week was followed by a higher number of both positive and negative consequences in the subsequent observation. Number of negative consequences experienced and evaluation of positive consequences had no effect on later behavior. Conclusions Salient negative consequences may drive naturalistic reductions in alcohol use, suggesting the possible efficacy of programs designed to increase the salience of the negative effects of alcohol. PMID:26168225
Connor, Jason P; Kavanagh, David J; Andrade, Jackie; May, Jon; Feeney, Gerald F X; Gullo, Matthew J; White, Angela M; Fry, Marie-Louise; Drennan, Judy; Previte, Josephine; Tjondronegoro, Dian
Little is known about the subjective experience of alcohol desire and craving in young people. Descriptions of alcohol urges continue to be extensively used in the everyday lexicon of young, non-dependent drinkers. Elaborated Intrusion (EI) Theory contends that imagery is central to craving and desires, and predicts that alcohol-related imagery will be associated with greater frequency and amount of drinking. This study involved 1535 age stratified 18-25 year olds who completed an alcohol-related survey that included the Imagery scale of the Alcohol Craving Experience (ACE) questionnaire. Imagery items predicted 12-16% of the variance in concurrent alcohol consumption. Higher total Imagery subscale scores were linearly associated with greater drinking frequency and lower self-efficacy for moderate drinking. Interference with alcohol imagery may have promise as a preventive or early intervention target in young people.
In the United States, more underage youth drink alcohol than smoke tobacco or use illicit drugs. Excessive alcohol consumption leads to many adverse health and social consequences and results in approximately 4,500 deaths among underage youth each year. Recent studies have emphasized the contribution of alcohol marketing to underage drinking and have demonstrated that a substantial proportion of alcohol advertising appears in media for which the audience composition is youth-oriented (i.e., composed disproportionately of persons aged 12-20 years). To determine the proportion of radio advertisements that occurred on radio programs with audiences composed disproportionately of underage youth and the proportion of total youth exposure to alcohol advertising that occurs as a result of such advertising, researchers at the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth (Health Policy Institute, Georgetown University, District of Columbia) evaluated the placement of individual radio advertisements for the most advertised U.S. alcohol brands and the composition of audiences in the largest 104 markets in the United States. This report summarizes the results of that study, which indicate that alcohol advertising is common on radio programs which have disproportionately large youth audiences and that this advertising accounts for a substantial proportion of all alcohol radio advertising heard by underage youth. These results further indicate that 1) the current voluntary standards limiting alcohol marketing to youth should be enforced and ultimately strengthened, and 2) ongoing monitoring of youth exposure to alcohol advertising should continue.
Ethanol is an alcohol made from grain that can be blended with gasoline to extend petroleum supplies and to increase gasoline octane levels. Congressional proposals to encourage greater use of alternative fuels could increase the demand for ethanol. This report evaluates the growth potential of the ethanol industry to meet future demand increases and the impacts increased production would have on American agriculture and the federal budget. It is found that ethanol production could double or triple in the next eight years, and that American farmers could provide the corn for this production increase. While corn growers would benefit, other agricultural segments would not; soybean producers, for example could suffer for increased corn oil production (an ethanol byproduct) and cattle ranchers would be faced with higher feed costs because of higher corn prices. Poultry farmers might benefit from lower priced feed. Overall, net farm cash income should increase, and consumers would see slightly higher food prices. Federal budget impacts would include a reduction in federal farm program outlays by an annual average of between $930 million (for double current production of ethanol) to $1.421 billion (for triple production) during the eight-year growth period. However, due to an partial tax exemption for ethanol blended fuels, federal fuel tax revenues could decrease by between $442 million and $813 million.
Su, Shaobing; Li, Xiaoming; Lin, Danhua; Zhang, Chen; Qiao, Shan; Zhou, Yeujiao
Excessive alcohol use is considered as a health-risk behavior that may produce negative health outcomes. Examining predictors of alcohol use in social and individual contexts can advance understanding of why people indulge in alcohol use. Our research on female sex workers (FSWs) examined associations among several social context factors (alcohol use by family members, alcohol use by peers, and client-perpetrated pressure or violence), refusal self-efficacy, and alcohol use. Seven hundred FSWs were recruited from two cities in southern China. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze the direct effects of alcohol use by family members, alcohol use by peers, and client-perpetrated pressure or violence on FSWs' alcohol use. In addition, the mediation effects of refusal self-efficacy were also examined in the SEM model. Results showed that alcohol use by family members and alcohol use by peers significantly predicted FSWs' alcohol use; the prediction effect of alcohol use by peers on FSWs' alcohol use was stronger than that of alcohol use by family members; client-perpetrated pressure or violence directly predicted FSWs' alcohol use and indirectly influenced FSWs' alcohol use through refusal self-efficacy; refusal self-efficacy directly predicted FSWs' alcohol use. Administrators of effective intervention programs focused on alcohol use in China should adopt a multilevel approach to reduce negative social influences, particularly the influence from peer and sex work establishments on FSWs' alcohol use. Meanwhile, training to improve refusal self-efficacy should also be included in the intervention programs to reduce FSWs' alcohol use.
Wills, Thomas A; Sargent, James D; Gibbons, Frederick X; Gerrard, Meg; Stoolmiller, Mike
The authors tested a theoretical model of how exposure to alcohol cues in movies predicts level of alcohol use (ever use plus ever and recent binge drinking) and alcohol-related problems. A national sample of younger adolescents was interviewed by telephone with 4 repeated assessments spaced at 8-month intervals. A structural equation modeling analysis performed for ever-drinkers at Time 3 (N = 961) indicated that, controlling for a number of covariates, movie alcohol exposure at Time 1 was related to increases in peer alcohol use and adolescent alcohol use at Time 2. Movie exposure had indirect effects to alcohol use and problems at Times 3 and 4 through these pathways, with direct effects to problems from Time 1 rebelliousness and Time 2 movie exposure also found. Prospective risk-promoting effects were also found for alcohol expectancies, peer alcohol use, and availability of alcohol in the home; protective effects were found for mother's responsiveness and for adolescent's school performance and self-control. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).
Hussong, A M; Wirth, R J; Edwards, M C; Curran, P J; Chassin, L A; Zucker, R A
The authors examined heterogeneity in risk for externalizing symptoms in children of alcoholic parents, as it may inform the search for entry points into an antisocial pathway to alcoholism. That is, they tested whether the number of alcoholic parents in a family, the comorbid subtype of parental alcoholism, and the gender of the child predicted trajectories of externalizing symptoms over the early life course, as assessed in high-risk samples of children of alcoholic parents and matched controls. Through integrative analyses of 2 independent, longitudinal studies, they showed that children with either an antisocial alcoholic parent or 2 alcoholic parents were at greatest risk for externalizing symptoms. Moreover, children with a depressed alcoholic parent did not differ from those with an antisocial alcoholic parent in reported symptoms. These findings were generally consistent across mother, father, and adolescent reports of symptoms; child gender and child age (ages 2 through 17); and the 2 independent studies examined. Multialcoholic and comorbid-alcoholic families may thus convey a genetic susceptibility to dysregulation along with environments that both exacerbate this susceptibility and provide few supports to offset it.
Greeley, J; Swift, W; Heather, N
Male drinkers (n = 45) were asked to rate their desire for a drink of alcohol when presented with the sight, smell and taste of their preferred alcoholic beverage and of a lemon cordial drink. The subjects' level of depressed affect on that day and their average daily consumption of alcohol over the last 30 days were measured prior to exposure to these cues. Both level of depressed affect and log of mean daily alcohol consumption predicted increased desire for alcohol when alcohol cues were present, accounting for 40% of the variance in desire. When presented with the lemon cordial cues only 14% of the variance in desire for alcohol was explained by these variables. Also, Spearman's rank order correlations were calculated between heavy drinkers' (n = 19) ratings of self-efficacy to resist drinking and desire for alcohol in the presence of the alcohol cues. There were significant negative correlations between desire for alcohol and self-efficacy ratings on the 'urges and temptations' and 'positive social situations' subscales of the Situational Confidence Questionnaire-39. Several alternative accounts of these findings are discussed.
Wills, Thomas A.; Sargent, James D.; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Gerrard, Meg; Stoolmiller, Mike
The authors tested a theoretical model of how exposure to alcohol cues in movies predicts level of alcohol use (ever use plus ever and recent binge drinking) and alcohol-related problems. A national sample of younger adolescents was interviewed by telephone with 4 repeated assessments spaced at 8-month intervals. A structural equation modeling analysis performed for ever-drinkers at Time 3 (N = 961) indicated that, controlling for a number of covariates, movie alcohol exposure at Time 1 was related to increases in peer alcohol use and adolescent alcohol use at Time 2. Movie exposure had indirect effects to alcohol use and problems at Times 3 and 4 through these pathways, with direct effects to problems from Time 1 rebelliousness and Time 2 movie exposure also found. Prospective risk-promoting effects were also found for alcohol expectancies, peer alcohol use, and availability of alcohol in the home; protective effects were found for mother’s responsiveness and for adolescent’s school performance and self-control. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. PMID:19290687
The good news is that market stability can be achieved through a combination of longer-term contracts, auctions for far enough in the future to permit new entry, a capacity management system, and a demand curve. The bad news is that if and when stable capacity markets are designed, the markets may seem to be relatively close to where we started - with integrated resource planning. Market ideologues will find this anathema. (author)
Ibáñez, Manuel I.; Camacho, Laura; Mezquita, Laura; Villa, Helena; Moya-Higueras, Jorge; Ortet, Generós
Personality and expectancies are relevant psychological factors for the development of adolescent alcohol use and misuse. The present study examined their direct, mediated and moderated effects on different drinking behaviors in adolescence. Personality domains of the five-factor model, positive and negative alcohol expectancies (AEs), alcohol use during the week and the weekend, and alcohol-related problems were assessed in a sample of 361 adolescents. Different personality dimensions were directly associated with specific alcohol outcomes: Extraversion, low Conscientiousness and low Openness were associated with weekend alcohol use; low Agreeableness was related to weekday use; whereas low Agreeableness, low Conscientiousness and Extraversion were associated with alcohol-related problems. In addition, positive AEs mediated the relationship between Extraversion and alcohol use, whereas both positive and negative expectancies mediated the association between Neuroticism and alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Finally, both types of expectancies interacted with Extraversion to predict alcohol problems. Our results highlight the importance of examining the complex interplay of comprehensive personality models and AEs to gain a better understanding of the development of different alcohol use and misuse patterns in adolescence. PMID:26635714
Ibáñez, Manuel I; Camacho, Laura; Mezquita, Laura; Villa, Helena; Moya-Higueras, Jorge; Ortet, Generós
Personality and expectancies are relevant psychological factors for the development of adolescent alcohol use and misuse. The present study examined their direct, mediated and moderated effects on different drinking behaviors in adolescence. Personality domains of the five-factor model, positive and negative alcohol expectancies (AEs), alcohol use during the week and the weekend, and alcohol-related problems were assessed in a sample of 361 adolescents. Different personality dimensions were directly associated with specific alcohol outcomes: Extraversion, low Conscientiousness and low Openness were associated with weekend alcohol use; low Agreeableness was related to weekday use; whereas low Agreeableness, low Conscientiousness and Extraversion were associated with alcohol-related problems. In addition, positive AEs mediated the relationship between Extraversion and alcohol use, whereas both positive and negative expectancies mediated the association between Neuroticism and alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Finally, both types of expectancies interacted with Extraversion to predict alcohol problems. Our results highlight the importance of examining the complex interplay of comprehensive personality models and AEs to gain a better understanding of the development of different alcohol use and misuse patterns in adolescence.
Van Dyke, Nicholas; Fillmore, Mark T.
Introduction Cue reactivity paradigms have found that alcohol-related cues increase alcohol consumption in heavy drinkers and alcoholics. However, evidence of this relationship among non-alcohol dependent “social” drinkers is mixed, suggesting that individual differences must be considered when examining cue-induced drinking behavior. One important individual difference factor that might contribute to cue-induced drinking in the laboratory is the amount of alcohol that participants typically drink during occasions outside the laboratory. That is, those who typically consume more alcohol per occasion could display greater cue-induced drinking than those who typically drink less. The present study examined this hypothesis in healthy, non-dependent beer drinkers. Methods The drinkers were exposed to either a series of beer images intended to prime their motivation to drink beer or to a series of non-alcoholic images of food items that served as a control condition. Following cue exposure, motivation to drink was measured by giving participants an opportunity to work for glasses of beer by performing an operant response task. Results Results indicated that drinkers exposed to alcohol cues displayed greater operant responding for alcohol and earned more drinks compared with those exposed to non-alcohol (i.e., food) cues. Moreover, individual differences in drinking habits predicted subjects’ responding for alcohol following exposure to the alcohol cues, but not following exposure to food cues. Conclusions The findings suggest that cue-induced drinking in non-dependent drinkers likely results in consumption levels commensurate with their typical consumption outside the laboratory, but not excessive consumption that is sometimes observed in alcohol-dependent samples. PMID:25841089
Jackson, Anne; Duka, Theodora; Stephens, David N
Systemic injections of alcohol have previously been reported to 'prime' or to reinstate self-administration of alcohol in rats, and it has been suggested that the priming effects of drugs are related to their stimulus properties. We tested this hypothesis by investigating the effects of lorazepam, which cross-generalizes with alcohol in animal drug-discrimination studies, in rats trained to self-administer 7% alcohol in an operant paradigm. Once animals were trained, extinction tests were carried out twice weekly, before which rats were injected with either vehicle, alcohol (0.063-0.5 g/kg, i.p.) or lorazepam (0.03-0.25 mg/kg, i.p.). Alcohol did not increase responding for alcohol during extinction. Doses of 0.25 and 0.5 g/kg reduced alcohol-appropriate lever pressing (p < 0.05 versus 0 g/kg), with the largest dose also suppressing general activity (p < 0.02 versus 0 g/kg). Lorazepam also reduced alcohol-appropriate responding, in a behaviourally specific manner; doses of 0.03 mg/kg and above decreased lever pressing (p < 0.05 versus 0 mg/kg), whereas general activity was depressed at 0.06 mg/kg and larger doses (p < 0.05 versus 0 mg/kg). Although lorazepam mimicked the effect of alcohol at doses predicted to do so on the basis of their relative potency in drug discrimination studies, neither alcohol nor lorazepam primed rats to respond for alcohol. By contrast, the pattern of results suggested that, in this model, they 'satiated' or substituted for alcohol, resulting in a reduced motivation to respond.
Distel, Brenda D.
This project is designed to teach students the process of buying stocks and to tracking their investments over the course of a semester. The goals of the course are to teach students about the relationships between conditions in the economy and the stock market; to predict the effect of an economic event on a specific stock or industry; to relate…
Heine, M W
A brief overview of the reproductive capacities of both men and women in alcoholism is presented. A historical evaluation indicates a resurgence of interest in this area. The effect of chronic alcohol consumption on both male fertility and potency is reported in conjunction with alcohol-mediated effects on the female subject. Emphasis is placed on pharmacokinetics, metabolism and drinking behavior of the alcoholic female. The adverse actions of some therapeutic drugs and chronic alcohol consumption is discussed in relationship to fetal alcohol syndrome and the accompanied mental and somatic abnormalities.
Alcohol/water mixtures, such as those produced by fermentation of biomass material, are separated by extraction of alcohol with a solvent, comprising a higher aliphatic alcohol in major amount and an aliphatic hydrocarbon in minor amount, especially suited to such extraction and to subsequent removal. The solvent alcohol desirably has a branched chain, or the hydrocarbon an unsaturated bond, or both. Conventional distillation steps to concentrate alcohol and eliminate water are rendered unnecessary at a considerable reduction in heat energy requirement (usually met with fossil fuel). Optional addition of gasoline between the solvent extraction and solvent recovery steps not only aids the latter separation but produces alcohol already denatured for fuel use.
Diamond, I; Messing, R O
Alcoholism, a worldwide disorder, is the cause of a variety of neurologic disorders. In this article we discuss the cellular pathophysiology of ethanol addition and abuse as well as evidence supporting and refuting the role of inheritance in alcoholism. A genetic marker for alcoholism has not been identified, but neurophysiologic studies may be promising. Some neurologic disorders related to longterm alcoholism are due predominantly to inadequate nutrition (the thiamine deficiency that causes Wernicke's encephalopathy), but others appear to involve the neurotoxicity of ethanol on brain (alcohol withdrawal syndrome and dementia) and peripheral nerves (alcoholic neuropathy and myopathy). Images PMID:7975567
... this page: About CDC.gov . FASD Homepage Facts Secondary Conditions Videos Alcohol Use in Pregnancy Questions & Answers Quiz Alcohol Screening & Brief Intervention Diagnosis Treatments Data & Statistics Alcohol Consumption Rates Research & Tracking Monitoring Alcohol ...
Sureda, Xisca; Villalbí, Joan R; Espelt, Albert; Franco, Manuel
Harmful use of alcohol is one of the world's leading health risks. A positive association between certain characteristics of the urban environment and individual alcohol consumption has been documented in previous research. When developing a tool characterising the urban environment of alcohol in the cities of Barcelona and Madrid we observed that alcohol is ever present in our cities. Urban residents are constantly exposed to a wide variety of alcohol products, marketing and promotion and signs of alcohol consumption. In this field note, we reflect the normalisation of alcohol in urban environments. We highlight the need for further research to better understand attitudes and practices in relation to alcohol consumption. This type of urban studies is necessary to support policy interventions to prevent and control harmful alcohol use.
Wiers, Reinout W; Stacy, Alan W
Moss and Albery presented a dual-process model of the alcohol-behavior link, integrating alcohol expectancy and alcohol myopia theory. Their integrative theory rests on a number of assumptions including, first, that alcohol expectancies are associations that can be activated automatically by an alcohol-relevant context, and second, that alcohol selectively reduces propositional reasoning. As a result, behavior comes under the control of associative processes after alcohol consumption. We agree with the second but not with the first assumption, based on theoretical and empirical arguments. Although in some cases expectancies may involve a simple association, they are propositional in nature. We demonstrate that this assertion is supported by existing literature cited in Moss and Albery. Moreover, 6 recent studies consistently demonstrated that under circumstances in which executive control is impaired (either as a stable individual difference or under the acute influence of alcohol), associative processes, over and above expectancies, predict alcohol-related behavior. Taken together, the evidence strongly suggests a fundamental distinction between expectancies and associations in memory: Effects of propositional expectancies and executive functions are impaired under the acute influence of alcohol, but memory associations are not. This difference in perspective not only has theoretical implications but also leads to different predictions regarding acute alcohol effects in society.
Williams, Janet F; Smith, Vincent C
Prenatal exposure to alcohol can damage the developing fetus and is the leading preventable cause of birth defects and intellectual and neurodevelopmental disabilities. In 1973, fetal alcohol syndrome was first described as a specific cluster of birth defects resulting from alcohol exposure in utero. Subsequently, research unequivocally revealed that prenatal alcohol exposure causes a broad range of adverse developmental effects. Fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) is the general term that encompasses the range of adverse effects associated with prenatal alcohol exposure. The diagnostic criteria for fetal alcohol syndrome are specific, and comprehensive efforts are ongoing to establish definitive criteria for diagnosing the other FASDs. A large and growing body of research has led to evidence-based FASD education of professionals and the public, broader prevention initiatives, and recommended treatment approaches based on the following premises:▪ Alcohol-related birth defects and developmental disabilities are completely preventable when pregnant women abstain from alcohol use.▪ Neurocognitive and behavioral problems resulting from prenatal alcohol exposure are lifelong.▪ Early recognition, diagnosis, and therapy for any condition along the FASD continuum can result in improved outcomes.▪ During pregnancy:◦no amount of alcohol intake should be considered safe;◦there is no safe trimester to drink alcohol;◦all forms of alcohol, such as beer, wine, and liquor, pose similar risk; and◦binge drinking poses dose-related risk to the developing fetus.
Bujarski, Spencer; Hutchison, Kent E; Prause, Nicole; Ray, Lara A
Pre-clinical neurobiological models of addiction etiology including both the allostatic model and incentive sensitization theory suggest that alcohol consumption among alcohol-dependent (AD) individuals will be dissociated from hedonic reward as positive reinforcement mechanisms wane in later stage dependence. The aims of this study are to test this claim in humans by examining the relationship between dimensions of subjective responses to alcohol (SR) and alcohol craving across levels of alcohol exposure. Non-treatment-seeking drinkers (n = 205) completed an i.v. alcohol challenge (final target breath alcohol concentration = 0.06 g/dl) and reported on SR and craving. Participants were classified as light-to-moderate drinkers (LMD), heavy drinkers (HD) or AD. Analyses examined group differences in SR and craving response magnitude, as well as concurrent and predictive associations between SR domains and craving. At baseline, LMD and AD reported greater stimulation than HD, which carried over post-alcohol administration. However, stimulation was dose-dependently associated with alcohol craving in HD only. Furthermore, lagged models found that stimulation preceded craving among HD only, whereas this hypothesized pattern of results was not observed for craving preceding stimulation. Sedation was also positively associated with craving, yet no group differences were observed. In agreement with the prediction of diminished positive reinforcement in alcohol dependence, this study showed that stimulation/hedonic reward from alcohol did not precede craving in AD, whereas stimulation was dose-dependently associated with and preceded craving among non-dependent HD.
Patrick, Megan E.; Maggs, Jennifer L.
Purpose To examine short-term consequences associated with consuming alcohol and energy drinks compared with consuming alcohol without energy drinks. Methods A longitudinal measurement-burst design (14-day bursts of daily surveys in four consecutive college semesters) captured both within-person variation across occasions and between-person differences across individuals. The analytic sample of late adolescent alcohol users included 4,203 days with alcohol use across up to four semesters per person from 508 college students. Results Adding energy drink use to a given day with alcohol use was associated with an increase in number of alcoholic drinks, a trend toward more hours spent drinking, elevated estimated blood alcohol content (eBAC), a greater likelihood of subjective intoxication, and more negative consequences of drinking that day. After controlling for eBAC, energy drink use no longer predicted subjective intoxication but was still associated with a greater number of negative consequences. Conclusions The consumption of energy drinks may lead to increases in alcohol consumption and, after controlling for eBAC, negative consequences. Use of energy drinks plus alcohol represents an emerging threat to public health. PMID:24309196
... Daily life skills, such as feeding and bathing Fetal alcohol syndrome is the most serious type of FASD. People with fetal alcohol syndrome have facial abnormalities, including wide-set and narrow ...
Chafetz, Morris E.
It is estimated that 29 million American children have alcoholic parents. The author documents the unstable environment and psychological consequences suffered by these children, who are at great risk to become alcoholics themselves. (Editor)
... resources for information on alcoholism: Alcoholics Anonymous -- www.aa.org Al-Anon Family Groups -- www.al-anon. ... exposures to the fetus. In: Martin RJ, Fanaroff AA, Walsh MC, eds. Fanaroff and Martin's Neonatal-Perinatal ...
... Centers Mental Health Medical Library Alcohol Use Screening (AUDIT-C) - Instructions The following questions are a screening ... is also text-only version . Alcohol Use Screening (AUDIT-C) - Manual Instructions The following questions are a ...
Helzer, John E.
Reviews the application of epidemiology to alcoholism. Discusses measurement and diagnostic issues and reviews studies of the prevalence of alcoholism, its risk factors, and the contributions of epidemiology to our knowledge of treatment and prevention. (Author/KS)
... gov/ency/patientinstructions/000856.htm Myths about drinking alcohol To use the sharing features on this page, ... We know much more about the effects of alcohol today than in the past. Yet, myths remain ...
Benzyl alcohol lotion is used to treat head lice (small insects that attach themselves to the skin) in adults ... children less than 6 months of age. Benzyl alcohol is in a class of medications called pediculicides. ...
Zahr, Natalie M.; Sullivan, Edith V.
Human studies are necessary to identify and classify the brain systems predisposing individuals to develop alcohol use disorders and those modified by alcohol, while animal models of alcoholism are essential for a mechanistic understanding of how chronic voluntary alcohol consumption becomes compulsive, how brain systems become damaged, and how damage resolves. Our current knowledge of the neuroscience of alcohol dependence has evolved from the interchange of information gathered from both human alcoholics and animal models of alcoholism. Together, studies in humans and animal models have provided support for the involvement of specific brain structures over the course of alcohol addiction, including the prefrontal cortex, basal ganglia, cerebellum, amygdala, hippocampus, and the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis. PMID:20041042
Haverfield, Marie C; Theiss, Jennifer A
Alcoholism is a highly stigmatized condition, with both alcohol-dependent individuals and family members of the afflicted experiencing stigmatization. This study examined the severity of a parent's alcoholism and family topic avoidance about alcohol as two factors that are associated with family members' perceptions of stigma. Three dimensions of stigma were considered: discrimination stigma, disclosure stigma, and positive aspect stigma. In addition, this study assessed associations between perceived stigmatization and individuals' experiences of depressive symptoms, self-esteem, and resilience. Adult children of alcoholics (N = 622) were surveyed about family conditions, perceived stigma, and their emotional and psychological well-being. Regression analyses revealed that the severity of a parent's alcoholism predicted all three types of stigma for females, but not for males. In addition, family topic avoidance about alcohol predicted all types of stigma for males and discrimination stigma and positive aspect stigma for females. With few exceptions, the three types of stigma predicted depressive symptoms, self-esteem, and resilience for both male and female adult children of alcoholics. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for promoting a family environment that mitigates stigma and encourages emotional and psychological well-being. In 2012, approximately 3.3 million deaths worldwide were due to the harmful use of alcohol (World Health Organization [WHO], 2014). Individuals who abuse alcohol are susceptible to a variety of negative health outcomes (Rehm et al., 2009) and display inappropriate social behaviors (Klingemann, 2001; Schomerus et al., 2011a). General societal perceptions tend to characterize alcohol-dependent individuals as irresponsible and lacking in self-control (Schomerus et al., 2011b). Research in the United Kingdom found that 54% of the population believes alcohol-dependent individuals are personally to blame for their own
Kawase, T.; Sawai, K.
A new distillation equipment for alcohol which consists mainly of a brief concentrating column a, a concentrating column b, a compressor C to compress alcohol vapor generated in column B and water evaporator D heated by the compressed alcohol vapor is developed and this especially fits for a distillation source of a glue like solution obtained by alcohol fermentation because steam generated in the water evaporator D is directly blown into the solution in the concentrating column A.
Alcohol/water mixtures, such as those produced by fermentation of biomass material, are separated by extraction of alcohol with a solvent especially suited to such extraction and to subsequent removal. Conventional distillation steps to concentrate alcohol and eliminate water are rendered unnecessary at a considerable reduction in heat energy requirement (Usually met with fossil fuel). Addition of gasoline between the solvent extraction and solvent recovery steps not only aids the latter separation but produces alcohol already denatured for fuel use.
Stancil, Ronald A., Sr.
This article discusses the Marketing Education program at West Haven (CT) High School in West Haven, Connecticut, that promotes skills for life and attributes, enhances the academic program, and develops leaders out of ordinary students through an interactive curriculum. The three components of West Haven's marketing and management program are (1)…
All of our ideas have been field tested and have proven effective in our environment. Our objectives are: We will share our ideas about marketing training and what we've implemented at Michoud Space Systems. You will go away with at least one new idea or insight about how to more effectively market your training.
Helt, Lawrence; And Others
Designed for use in farm business management adult programs, this marketing curriculum includes six teaching lessons and professional staff products. The following topics are covered in the lessons: introduction to marketing; interpretation of price/demand/supply cycles and fundamental outlook trends (carryover/projections/disappearance); farmers'…
North Carolina State Dept. of Public Instruction, Raleigh. Div. of Vocational Education.
This document contains teacher materials for a 6-unit, 1-year distributive education course in marketing tourism offered in grades 11 and 12 in North Carolina. Although in general the material presented concerns marketing tourism anywhere, some of it is specifically related to tourism within North Carolina. A purpose statement explains the…
Concern about how much television alcohol advertising reaches underage youth and how the advertising influences their attitudes and decisions about alcohol use has been widespread for many years. Lacking in the policy debate has been solid, reliable information about the extent of youth exposure to television alcohol advertising. To address this…
Karasov, Ariela O; Ostacher, Michael J
Society has had an interest in controlling the production, distribution, and use of alcohol for millennia. The use of alcohol has always had consequences, be they positive or negative, and the role of government in the regulation of alcohol is now universal. This is accomplished at several levels, first through controls on production, importation, distribution, and use of alcoholic beverages, and second, through criminal laws, the aim of which is to address the behavior of users themselves. A number of interventions and policies reduce alcohol-related consequences to society by regulating alcohol pricing, targeting alcohol-impaired driving, and limiting alcohol availability. The legal system defines criminal responsibility in the context of alcohol use, as an enormous percentage of violent crime and motor death is associated with alcohol intoxication. In recent years, recovery-oriented policies have aimed to expand social supports for recovery and to improve access to treatment for substance use disorders within the criminal justice system. The Affordable Care Act, also know as "ObamaCare," made substantial changes to access to substance abuse treatment by mandating that health insurance include services for substance use disorders comparable to coverage for medical and surgical treatments. Rather than a simplified "war on drugs" approach, there appears to be an increasing emphasis on evidence-based policy development that approaches alcohol use disorders with hope for treatment and prevention. This chapter focuses on alcohol and the law in the United States.
Covington, Stephanie S.
There is growing acknowledgement of the association between family violence and alcohol use. A study was conducted to examine the role that abuse plays in the lives of women and to investigate the relationship between alcohol and violence. Data were collected from 35 recovering female alcoholics and 35 nonalcoholic women on their sexual experience…
Gress, James R.
Discusses children of alcoholics as victims of fetal alcohol syndrome, family violence, retarded social development, and severe emotional scars. These children bring family roles to school that allow survival in the alcoholic home but are dysfunctional outside it. Educators can take certain steps to address these students' problems. Includes six…
Schuckit, Marc A.
Reviews the role of biological factors in the risk for alcoholism. Notes the importance of the definition of primary alcoholism and highlights data indicating that this disorder is genetically influenced. In studies of men at high risk for the future development of alcoholism, vulnerability shows up in reactions to ethanol brain wave amplitude and…
... and drugs can do to your overall health. Drugs and Alcohol: Effects on your immune system Drinking too much alcohol ... getting help and finding the treatment you need. Drugs and Alcohol: ... on short- and long-term effects of drinking, with specific information on people who ...
Reviews the acute effects of alcohol on aggressive responding. From experimental studies that use human subjects, it is concluded that a moderate dose of alcohol does not increase aggression if subjects are unprovoked. Under provocative situations, aggression is increased as a function of alcohol intoxication, provided that subjects are restricted…
This chapter explores the issues involved in the relationship between lesbianism and alcoholism. It examines the constellation of health and related problems created by alcoholism, and it critically interrogates the societal factors that contribute to the disproportionately high rates of alcoholism among lesbians by exploring the antecedents and…
Lee, Chia-Kuei; Corte, Colleen; Stein, Karen F.; Park, Chang G.; Finnegan, Lorna; McCreary, Linda L.
Possible selves, cognitions about the self that reflect hopes, fears, and expectations for the future, are reliable predictors of health risk behaviors but have not been explored as predictors of adolescents’ alcohol use. In a secondary analysis of data from 137 adolescents, we examined the influence of possible selves assessed in eighth grade on alcohol consumption (yes/no and level of use) in ninth grade. Having a most important feared possible self related to academics in eighth grade predicted alcohol abstinence in ninth grade. Among those who reported alcohol use, having many hoped-for possible selves and a most important hoped-for possible self related to academics in eighth grade predicted lower level of alcohol consumption in ninth grade. Interventions that foster the personal relevance and importance of academics and lead to the development of hoped-for possible selves may reduce adolescents’ alcohol consumption. PMID:25545451
Fishman, Inna; Goldman, Mark S.; Donchin, Emanuel
Language-based measures indicate that alcohol expectancies influence alcohol consumption. To relate these measures to brain actions that precede verbal output, the P300 component of the Event-related potentials (ERPs) was used to detect violations of individually held alcohol expectancies. As predicted, P300 amplitude elicited by negative alcohol expectancy stimuli was positively correlated with endorsement of positive/arousing alcohol expectancies on the language-based measure, such that the higher an individual's positive/arousing expectancies, the larger was the P300 elicited by negative alcohol expectancy stimuli. These results demonstrated concordance between language-based measures of alcohol expectancies and electrophysiological probes of expectancy. Although whether these expectancy processes are integral to decision pathways that influence consumption is unknown, these findings suggest that such processing can occur very quickly outside of conscious deliberation. PMID:18729689
Tanski, Susanne E.; McClure, Auden C.; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D.
IMPORTANCE Alcohol is the most common drug among youth and a major contributor to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Billions of dollars are spent annually marketing alcohol. OBJECTIVE To examine the reach of television alcohol advertising and its effect on drinking among underage youth. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013 involving 2541 US adolescents 15 to 23 years of age at baseline, with 1596 of these adolescents completing the follow-up survey. Cued recall of television advertising images for top beer and distilled spirits brands that aired nationally in 2010–2011 (n = 351). Images were digitally edited to remove branding, and the respondents were queried about 20 randomly selected images. An alcohol advertising receptivity score was derived (1 point each for having seen the ad and for liking it, and 2 points for correct brand identification). Fast-food ads that aired nationally in 2010–2011 (n = 535) were similarly queried to evaluate message specificity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Among the underage youth at baseline, we determined (1) the onset of drinking among those who never drank, (2) the onset of binge drinking among those who were never binge drinkers, and (3) the onset of hazardous drinking among those with an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test consumption subscore of less than 4. Multivariate regressions were used to predict each outcome, controlling for covariates (demographics, drinking among friends and parents, and sensation seeking), weighting to the US population, and using multiple imputation to address loss to follow-up. RESULTS Underage participants were only slightly less likely than participants of legal drinking age to have seen alcohol ads (the mean percentage of ads seen were 23.4%, 22.7%, and 25.6%, respectively, for youth 15–17, 18–20, and 21–23 years of age; P < .005). The transition to binge and hazardous drinking occurred for 29% and 18% of
McLaughlin, K L; Smith, D I
A study was undertaken to measure the blood alcohol levels (BALs) of five men and five women after they had consumed seven middies of Emu 2.2 (2.2% alcohol by volume) beer in 1 hour. This study was conducted in response to a newspaper advertisement which depicted a well-known football player drinking seven middies of Emu 2.2 beer over 1 hour and registering a BAL of 0.012%. As predicted, the BALs of the ten adults varied considerably, but all greatly exceeded the very low result obtained by the football player. More importantly, from the point of view of road safety, all ten BALs exceeded the 0.02% probationary driver limit in Western Australia, and two of the BALs were above the 0.05% legal limit for driving in several other Australian states.
Black, Lisa; Spetz, Joanne; Harrington, Charlene
Registered nurses (RNs) who work outside of nursing have seldom been examined. This aim of this study was to compare the 122,178 (4%) of RNs who are employed outside of nursing to those who work in nursing jobs in terms of sociodemographic, market, and political variables to determine if these groups are substantively different from one another. Using a logit regression model, wages were a significant predictor of working outside of nursing for unmarried nurses but not for married nurses. Married and unmarried male nurses were more likely to work outside of nursing. Baccalaureate education, children under age 6, higher family income, and years since graduation increased the odds of working outside of nursing for married nurses. Ultimately, identifying characteristics on which these groups differ may inform future policy directions that could target nurses who may leave nursing at a time when retention efforts might be effective to alter their trajectory away from the profession.
Restrictions on alcohol advertising are vulnerable to challenge under international trade agreements. As countries negotiate new trade treaties and expand the scope of existing ones, the risk of such a challenge increases. While alcohol advertising restrictions normally do not distinguish between foreign and domestic products, this neutral character does not protect them from being challenged under trade rules. The article analyzes four provisions of trade agreements--expropriation, de facto discrimination, market access, and necessity--in relation to the jeopardy they pose for alcohol advertising restrictions. Key cases are reviewed to illustrate how these provisions have been used to either overturn existing advertising restrictions or prevent new ones from coming into force. The article also reports on the mixed results governments have had in trying to justify their regulations to trade panels and the stringent criteria imposed for proving that a regulation is "necessary."
Tiger Tail Distillery plans to start construction in Jan. 1981 of an $89.9 million ethanol plant that would produce 50 million gal/yr of alcohol from 19 million bushels of corn. A $66.8 million loan guarantee from the U.S. Farmers Home Administration will aid the construction of the plant, which will be located on the Mississippi River west of Dyersburg, Tenn. The plant is scheduled for completion eight months after the start of construction. The production and marketing of the alcohol would cost an estimated $1.80/gal, and the cost of barging the alcohol to New Orleans and Memphis would be $0.01/gal and $0.0025/gal, respectively.
Tonigan, J Scott
What can be confidently said about AA in general and about the role of spirituality in AA in particular? First, there is convincing evidence that alcoholism severity predicts later AA attendance. Second, atheists are less likely to attend AA, relative to individuals who already hold spiritual and/or religious beliefs. However, belief in God before AA attendance does not offer any advantage in AA-related benefits, and atheists, once involved, are at no apparent disadvantage in deriving AA-related benefits. Third, the spiritually-based principles of AA appear to be endorsed in AA meetings regardless of the perceived social dynamics or climate of a particular meeting, eg, highly cohesive or aggressive. Fourth, significant increases in spiritual and religious beliefs and practices seem to occur among AA-exposed individuals. Fifth, in spite of much discussion to the contrary there is little evidence that spirituality directly accounts for later abstinence. We are finding, however, that spirituality has an important indirect effect in predicting later drinking reductions. Specifically, in the past 20 years a number of effective methods have been developed to facilitate initial AA attendance (AA dropout is high, with some estimates ranging as high as 80%). Interventions that lead to initial increases in spirituality appear to lead to sustained AA affiliation, which, in turn, produces sustained recovery over time.
Edenberg, Howard J; Foroud, Tatiana
Alcohol is widely consumed; however, excessive use creates serious physical, psychological and social problems and contributes to the pathogenesis of many diseases. Alcohol use disorders (that is, alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse) are maladaptive patterns of excessive drinking that lead to serious problems. Abundant evidence indicates that alcohol dependence (alcoholism) is a complex genetic disease, with variations in a large number of genes affecting a person's risk of alcoholism. Some of these genes have been identified, including two genes involved in the metabolism of alcohol (ADH1B and ALDH2) that have the strongest known affects on the risk of alcoholism. Studies continue to reveal other genes in which variants affect the risk of alcoholism or related traits, including GABRA2, CHRM2, KCNJ6 and AUTS2. As more variants are analysed and studies are combined for meta-analysis to achieve increased sample sizes, an improved picture of the many genes and pathways that affect the risk of alcoholism will be possible.
Patel, Sheena; Behara, Rama; Swanson, Garth R.; Forsyth, Christopher B.; Voigt, Robin M.; Keshavarzian, Ali
Alcohol abuse is a significant contributor to the global burden of disease and can lead to tissue damage and organ dysfunction in a subset of alcoholics. However, a subset of alcoholics without any of these predisposing factors can develop alcohol-mediated organ injury. The gastrointestinal tract (GI) could be an important source of inflammation in alcohol-mediated organ damage. The purpose of review was to evaluate mechanisms of alcohol-induced endotoxemia (including dysbiosis and gut leakiness), and highlight the predisposing factors for alcohol-induced dysbiosis and gut leakiness to endotoxins. Barriers, including immunologic, physical, and biochemical can regulate the passage of toxins into the portal and systemic circulation. In addition, a host of environmental interactions including those influenced by circadian rhythms can impact alcohol-induced organ pathology. There appears to be a role for therapeutic measures to mitigate alcohol-induced organ damage by normalizing intestinal dysbiosis and/or improving intestinal barrier integrity. Ultimately, the inflammatory process that drives progression into organ damage from alcohol appears to be multifactorial. Understanding the role of the intestine in the pathogenesis of alcoholic liver disease can pose further avenues for pathogenic and treatment approaches. PMID:26501334
Fitzsimmons, R. D.
A very large segment of the over water, long haul passenger market, 31% of the passengers who provide 42% of the passenger revenue, offers a significant market for an advanced supersonic transport. This is for both the first class and full-fare economy passenger markets. The supersonic transport may be more competitive here in spite of lower costs of subsonic transports, as passenger preference is a more powerful variable than DOC. This latter fact was amply demonstrated in the late fifties when the jets completely replaced the reciprocating engine transports on most world routes, in spite of slightly higher fares.
Neuman, Manuela G.; French, Samuel W.; French, Barbara A.; Seitz, Helmut K.; Cohen, Lawrence B.; Mueller, Sebastian; Osna, Natalia A.; Kharbanda, Kusum K.; Seth, Devanshi; Bautista, Abraham; Thompson, Kyle J.; McKillop, Iain H.; Kirpich, Irina A.; McClain, Craig J.; Bataller, Ramon; Nanau, Radu M.; Voiculescu, Mihai; Opris, Mihai; Shen, Hong; Tillman, Brittany; Li, Jun; Liu, Hui; Thomas, Paul G.; Ganesan, Murali; Malnick, Steve
This paper is based upon the “Charles Lieber Satellite Symposia” organized by Manuela G. Neuman at the Research Society on Alcoholism (RSA) Annual Meetings, 2013 and 2014. The present review includes pre-clinical, translational and clinical research that characterize alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). In addition, a literature search in the discussed area was performed. Strong clinical and experimental evidence lead to recognition of the key toxic role of alcohol in the pathogenesis of ALD. The liver biopsy can confirm the etiology of NASH or alcoholic steatohepatitis (ASH) and assess structural alterations of cells, their organelles, as well as inflammatory activity. Three histological stages of ALD are simple steatosis, ASH, and chronic hepatitis with hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis. These latter stages may also be associated with a number of cellular and histological changes, including the presence of Mallory's hyaline, megamitochondria, or perivenular and perisinusoidal fibrosis. Genetic polymorphisms of ethanol metabolizing enzymes such as cytochrome p450 (CYP) 2E1 activation may change the severity of ASH and NASH. Alcohol mediated hepatocarcinogenesis, immune response to alcohol in ASH, as well as the role of other risk factors such as its comorbidities with chronic viral hepatitis in the presence or absence of human deficiency virus are discussed. Dysregulation of hepatic methylation, as result of ethanol exposure, in hepatocytes transfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), illustrates an impaired interferon signaling. The hepatotoxic effects of ethanol undermine the contribution of malnutrition to the liver injury. Dietary interventions such as micro and macronutrients, as well as changes to the microbiota are suggested. The clinical aspects of NASH, as part of metabolic syndrome in the aging population, are offered. The integrative symposia investigate different aspects of alcohol-induced liver damage and possible
Neuman, Manuela G; French, Samuel W; French, Barbara A; Seitz, Helmut K; Cohen, Lawrence B; Mueller, Sebastian; Osna, Natalia A; Kharbanda, Kusum K; Seth, Devanshi; Bautista, Abraham; Thompson, Kyle J; McKillop, Iain H; Kirpich, Irina A; McClain, Craig J; Bataller, Ramon; Nanau, Radu M; Voiculescu, Mihai; Opris, Mihai; Shen, Hong; Tillman, Brittany; Li, Jun; Liu, Hui; Thomes, Paul G; Ganesan, Murali; Malnick, Steve
This paper is based upon the "Charles Lieber Satellite Symposia" organized by Manuela G. Neuman at the Research Society on Alcoholism (RSA) Annual Meetings, 2013 and 2014. The present review includes pre-clinical, translational and clinical research that characterize alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). In addition, a literature search in the discussed area was performed. Strong clinical and experimental evidence lead to recognition of the key toxic role of alcohol in the pathogenesis of ALD. The liver biopsy can confirm the etiology of NASH or alcoholic steatohepatitis (ASH) and assess structural alterations of cells, their organelles, as well as inflammatory activity. Three histological stages of ALD are simple steatosis, ASH, and chronic hepatitis with hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis. These latter stages may also be associated with a number of cellular and histological changes, including the presence of Mallory's hyaline, megamitochondria, or perivenular and perisinusoidal fibrosis. Genetic polymorphisms of ethanol metabolizing enzymes such as cytochrome p450 (CYP) 2E1 activation may change the severity of ASH and NASH. Alcohol mediated hepatocarcinogenesis, immune response to alcohol in ASH, as well as the role of other risk factors such as its co-morbidities with chronic viral hepatitis in the presence or absence of human immunodeficiency virus are discussed. Dysregulation of hepatic methylation, as result of ethanol exposure, in hepatocytes transfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), illustrates an impaired interferon signaling. The hepatotoxic effects of ethanol undermine the contribution of malnutrition to the liver injury. Dietary interventions such as micro and macronutrients, as well as changes to the microbiota are suggested. The clinical aspects of NASH, as part of metabolic syndrome in the aging population, are offered. The integrative symposia investigate different aspects of alcohol-induced liver damage and possible
Latzman, Robert D; Chan, Wing Yi; Shishido, Yuri
Alcohol use among university students is a serious public health concern, particularly among minority students who may use alcohol to cope with experiences of racial discrimination. Although the impact of racial discrimination on alcohol use has been well-established, individual differences in factors that may act to either attenuate or exacerbate the negative effects of racial discrimination are largely unknown. One potentially fruitful individual differences trait that has repeatedly been found to predict alcohol problems is the multidimensional personality trait of impulsivity. Nonetheless, the ways in which various aspects of impulsivity interact with racial discrimination is yet unknown. The current study, therefore, examined the joint and interactive contribution of racial discrimination and impulsivity in the prediction of alcohol consumption among racial minority university students. Participants included 336 Black/African-American and Asian/Asian-American university students. Results revealed both racial discrimination and impulsivity to be significantly associated with alcohol problems. Further, individuals' responses to racial discrimination were not uniform. Specifically, the association between racial discrimination and alcohol problems was moderated by lack of Premeditation; racial discrimination was most strongly predictive of alcohol problems for those who reported low level of premeditation. Findings from the present study highlight the importance of investigating risk factors for alcohol problems across multiple levels of the ecology as individual personality traits appear to relate to how one might respond to the experience of racial discrimination.
Roche, Daniel Jo; Ray, Lara A
Currently available pharmacological treatments for alcoholism have modest efficacy and high individual variability in treatment outcomes, both of which have been partially attributed to genetic factors. One path to reducing the variability and improving the efficacy associated with these pharmacotherapies may be to identify overlapping genetic contributions to individual differences in both subjective responses to alcohol and alcoholism pharmacotherapy outcomes. As acute subjective response to alcohol is highly predictive of future alcohol related problems, identifying such shared genetic mechanisms may inform the development of personalized treatments that can effectively target converging pathophysiological mechanisms that convey risk for alcoholism. The focus of this review is to revisit the association between subjective response to alcohol and the etiology of alcoholism while also describing genetic contributions to this relationship, discuss potential pharmacogenetic approaches to target subjective response to alcohol in order to improve the treatment of alcoholism and examine conceptual and methodological issues associated with these topics, and outline future approaches to overcome these challenges.
Thakkar, Mahesh M; Sharma, Rishi; Sahota, Pradeep
Alcohol is a potent somnogen and one of the most commonly used "over the counter" sleep aids. In healthy non-alcoholics, acute alcohol decreases sleep latency, consolidates and increases the quality (delta power) and quantity of NREM sleep during the first half of the night. However, sleep is disrupted during the second half. Alcoholics, both during drinking periods and during abstinences, suffer from a multitude of sleep disruptions manifested by profound insomnia, excessive daytime sleepiness, and altered sleep architecture. Furthermore, subjective and objective indicators of sleep disturbances are predictors of relapse. Finally, within the USA, it is estimated that societal costs of alcohol-related sleep disorders exceeds $18 billion. Thus, although alcohol-associated sleep problems have significant economic and clinical consequences, very little is known about how and where alcohol acts to affect sleep. In this review, we have described our attempts to unravel the mechanism of alcohol-induced sleep disruptions. We have conducted a series of experiments using two different species, rats and mice, as animal models. We performed microdialysis, immunohistochemical, pharmacological, sleep deprivation and lesion studies which suggest that the sleep-promoting effects of alcohol may be mediated via alcohol's action on the mediators of sleep homeostasis: adenosine (AD) and the wake-promoting cholinergic neurons of the basal forebrain (BF). Alcohol, via its action on AD uptake, increases extracellular AD resulting in the inhibition of BF wake-promoting neurons. Since binge alcohol consumption is a highly prevalent pattern of alcohol consumption and disrupts sleep, we examined the effects of binge drinking on sleep-wakefulness. Our results suggest that disrupted sleep homeostasis may be the primary cause of sleep disruption observed following binge drinking. Finally, we have also shown that sleep disruptions observed during acute withdrawal, are caused due to impaired
Makowsky, C R; Whitehead, P C
According to the single distribution theory increases in the availability of alcoholic beverages in the general population are associated with increases in average consumption and increases in alcohol-related damage. If it can be demonstrated that advertising contributes to availability, perhaps in the form of what has been called social or subjective availability, then advertising could be considered an appropriate target of prevention. A 58-year ban on advertising of alcoholic beverages was lifted in Saskatchewan in 1983. Data on monthly sales of beer, wine and distilled spirits were examined for the years 1981 to 1987. Box-Jenkins time series techniques were used to estimate the statistical relationship between the policy change and volume of sales of alcoholic beverages. The results revealed that sales of beer increased and sales of spirits decreased following the change in legislation that permitted alcohol advertising in Saskatchewan. The main finding is that there was no impact on wine and total alcohol sales from the introduction of alcohol advertising. Alcohol advertising may have produced a substitution effect with respect to beer and spirits, but this was not predicted. This evaluation suggests that alcohol advertising is not a contributory force that influences the overall level of alcohol consumption. The place of advertising in the single distribution theory remains not proven, and the place of advertising as an instrument of public policy with respect to the prevention of alcohol-related damage remains in question.
Bush, Gale; Kwielford, Merrilee Andersen
Discusses marketing techniques for teacher librarians based on six levels: basic assumptions; library resource program, including attitudes for success; school, including a collaborative environment; administration, including program support; community, including awareness; and state and national, including professional participation. (LRW)
Although very many individuals drink alcohol at safe levels, a significant proportion escalates their consumption with addiction as the end result. Alcoholism is a common, moderately heritable, psychiatric disorder that is accompanied by considerable morbidity and mortality. Variation in clinical presentation suggests inter-individual variation in mechanisms of vulnerability including genetic risk factors. The development of addiction is likely to involve numerous functional genetic variants of small effects. The first part of this review will focus on genetic factors underlying inter-individual variability in response to alcohol consumption, including variants in alcohol metabolizing genes that produce an aversive response (the flushing syndrome) and variants that predict the level of subjective and physiological response to alcohol. The second part of this review will report on genetic variants that identify subgroups of alcoholics who are more likely to respond to pharmacotherapy to reduce levels of drinking or maintain abstinence. Genetic analyses of the level of response to alcohol, particularly of the functional OPRM1 A118G polymorphism and 5' and 3' functional polymorphisms in SLC6A4, are beginning to provide insights into the etiology of alcoholism and also genotype-stratified subgroup responses to naltrexone and SSRIs/ondansetron respectively. Because of large inter-ethnic variation in allele frequencies, the relevance of these functional polymorphisms will vary between ethnic groups. However there are relatively few published studies in this field, particularly with large sample sizes in pharmacogenetic studies, therefore it is premature to draw any conclusions at this stage.
In April 2005 Pacific Forum leaders will decide whether to include alcohol and tobacco in the Pacific Island Countries Trade Agreement (PICTA). This article presents arguments for keeping alcohol out of regional free trade agreements. Inclusion will allow regional rationalisation of production, increased alcohol availability, competition and marketing, and lower prices. These trade goals are inappropriate for alcohol and tobacco. Pacific public health organisations are concerned that official advice has focused on fiscal impacts, not health and social impacts. The World Health Organization has identified alcohol as the leading factor in injury and disease for low-mortality developing countries. Effective policies to reduce alcohol related harm include restrictions on availability, as well as excise taxes affecting price. Under trade agreements elsewhere, national alcohol policies have been challenged as 'non-tariff barriers to trade'. Hazardous drinking is of increasingly concern in the Pacific and decisions about alcohol should not reflect commercial interests.
Otto, Randy K,; And Others
Evaluated alcohol-dependent inpatients and nonalcoholic controls on the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) twice: once under instructions to answer honestly, and once under dissimulation instructions. Showed 80 percent predictability of alcoholism under honest conditions, and significantly more benign profiles in the dissimulation…
The role alcohol abuse plays in criminality has been a matter of primary concern for scholars for decades, as indicated by numerous studies and research projects. Most of these studies focus on determining the presence of a relationship between criminal behaviour and alcohol use, and whether criminal inclinations increase with the consumption of alcohol. Research shows that alcohol use indeed increases the risk of criminal behaviour, and that there is an especially strong and consistent correlation between alcohol abuse and violent crimes. However, researchers still disagree on the exact extent to which alcohol use effects criminality, and on the mechanisms causing alcohol to induce violent behaviour. A significant proportion of studies have focused in recent years on aggressive behaviour as a result of drinking alcohol. One of the most important means of measurement is the study of violent behaviour in places where alcohol is on sale. Studying the forms and frequency of violence in pubs and near off-licence stores greatly enables experts to understand the general context of the problem. This is the reason for the increasing interest in the topic throughout the past few decades. The present study focuses mainly on the literature published in English and German in leading journals of criminology since 1980, as well as on the most recent and fundamental publications on the topic, with special regard to results concerning drinking habits, and the relationship between drinking alcohol and violent or criminal behaviour, respectively.
Hufford, M R
Alcohol dependence and alcohol intoxication are important risk factors for suicidal behavior. However, the mechanism for the relationship remains unclear. This review presents a conceptual framework relating alcohol to suicidal behavior. Distal risk factors create a statistical potential for suicide. Alcohol dependence, as well as associated comorbid psychopathology and negative life events, act as distal risk factors for suicidal behavior. Proximal risk factors determine the timing of suicidal behavior by translating the statistical potential of distal risk factors into action. The acute effects of alcohol intoxication act as important proximal risk factors for suicidal behavior among the alcoholic and nonalcoholic alike. Mechanisms responsible for alcohol's ability to increase the proximal risk for suicidal behavior include alcohol's ability to: (1) increase psychological distress, (2) increase aggressiveness, (3) propel suicidal ideation into action through suicide-specific alcohol expectancies, and (4) constrict cognition which impairs the generation and implementation of alternative coping strategies. Moreover, the proximal risk factors associated with acute intoxication are consistent with Baumeister's (1990) escape theory of suicide. Suggestions for additional research are discussed, including the possibility that a nonlinear cusp catastrophe model characterizes the relationship between alcohol intoxication and suicidal behavior.
Schuckit, M A; Li, T K; Cloninger, C R; Deitrich, R A
Great progress has been made by research on the contribution genetic factors make to a vulnerability toward alcoholism. Animal studies have demonstrated the importance of genetics in ethanol preference and levels of consumption, and human family, twin, and adoption research have revealed a 4-fold higher risk for offspring of alcoholics, even if they were adopted out at birth. The work presented in this symposium reviews the ongoing search for genetic trait markers of a vulnerability toward alcoholism. Dr. Li has used both animal and human research to demonstrate the possible importance of the genetic control of enzymes involved in ethanol metabolism and has worked to help develop an animal model of alcoholism. The possible importance of subgroups with different levels of predisposition toward alcoholism is emphasized by Dr. Cloninger. An overview of the studies of sons of alcoholics, given by Dr. Schuckit, reveals the potential importance of a decreased intensity of reaction to ethanol as part of a predisposition toward alcoholism and discusses the possible impact of some brain waves and ethanol metabolites to an alcoholism vulnerability. Dr. Deitrich reviews interrelationships between studies of animals and humans in the search for factors involved in a genetic vulnerability toward alcoholism. Taken together, these presentations underscore the importance of genetic factors in alcoholism, review animal and human research attempting to identify markers of a vulnerability, and reveal the high level of interaction between human and animal research.
Wardell, Jeffrey D; Read, Jennifer P
This study examined the joint effects of contextual cues and alcohol intoxication on the associations between activation of positive and negative alcohol expectancies in memory and self-reported urges to drink alcohol after a laboratory alcohol administration. Young adult heavy drinkers were randomly assigned to drink a moderate dose of alcohol or a placebo (alcohol manipulation), and then listened to positive or negative drinking scenarios (cue manipulation). Before and after these manipulations, participants completed an alcohol expectancy Stroop task assessing positive and negative expectancy activation, as well as self-report measures of urges to drink. Regression analyses revealed that the alcohol and cue manipulations had a joint, moderating impact on the associations between expectancy activation and postcue changes in urge to drink. Specifically, both increased activation of negative expectancies and decreased activation of positive expectancies predicted decreases in urges to drink, but only for intoxicated participants in the negative cue condition. There were no associations between expectancy activation and urges to drink for those in the positive cue condition regardless of beverage condition. Results suggest that whether memory activation of alcohol expectancies has an impact on urge to drink after alcohol is on board may depend on the relevance of the activated expectancies to the current drinking context. This process appears to be influenced by a complex interaction between contextual cues in the environment and the pharmacological effects of alcohol.
Stanley, Linda R.; Henry, Kimberly L.; Swaim, Randall C.
This study seeks to provide a greater understanding of the factors that determine the perceived availability of alcohol and its role in predicting adolescents' alcohol use. Participants were 151,703 7th-12th grade students (50% female) from a sample of 219 rural communities across the United States, with oversampling for predominantly…
Stacy, Alan W.; Zogg, Jennifer B.; Unger, Jennifer B.; Dent, Clyde W.
Objective : To assess the impact of televised alcohol commercials on adolescents' alcohol use. Methods : Adolescents completed questionnaires about alcohol commercials and alcohol use in a prospective study. Results : A one standard deviation increase in viewing television programs containing alcohol commercials in seventh grade was associated…
Brown, Sandra A.; And Others
Adolescent offspring of alcoholics have been found to have higher alcohol reinforcement expectancies than do teenagers from nonalcoholic families. In particular, those with a positive family history of alcoholism expect more cognitive and motor enhancement with alcohol consumption. This study examined the alcohol expectancies of 58 matched pairs…
Büyük, Yalçin; Eke, Murat; Cagdir, A Sadi; Karaaslan, Hicran K
To evaluate the effectiveness of synovial fluid alcohol concentration in prediction of blood alcohol concentration, synovial fluid and blood was studied of 50 autopsy cases and the alcohol levels determined by using Head Space Gas Chromatography method. To exclude the effect of decomposition on alcohol levels, corpses with post-mortem intervals less than 24 hours and not showing signs of decomposition were selected. Of 50 cases, alcohol was detected in 15 cases both in blood and in synovial fluid. In 35 cases alcohol analysis was negative both in blood and synovial fluid. No false positive results were seen in terms of synovial fluid. In two of the 15 cases, the alcohol determined was methyl alcohol and in others the alcohol was ethyl alcohol. In these 15 cases, only in one case was SAC level lower than the BAC level, and in 14 cases; SAC levels were higher than those of BAC. BAC (Blood Alcohol Concentration)/SAC (Synovial Fluid Alcohol Concentration) ratios were determined, and in 13 ethanol cases the mean ratio was determined to be 0.95 (0.90 +/- 0.07). The regression analysis showed a fairly linear relationship between the BAC and SAC, with a correlation coefficient of 0.984 (y = 0.86x + 10.4). The present study demonstrates that the synovial fluid is a valuable body fluid that can be used in prediction of blood alcohol concentration in forensic autopsy cases in which blood can not be properly obtained.
Opinions on the world market for wind power are presented in this paper. Reasons contributing to a potential growth in wind power are cited. Increased demand is expected to arise due to increased energy needs and environmental concerns. Barriers, primarily political, to the development of wind energy are assessed. Development is predicted to occur first in countries with a demand for new capacity and political decisions to protect the environment.
McCaul, M E
Epidemiological research has clearly demonstrated the importance of a family history as a determinant of future alcohol and, possibly, drug use in offspring of alcoholics. Laboratory studies have examined a wide range of potential markers both in the presence and absence of alcohol challenge, which may predict those subjects at high risk for the future development of alcoholism. While this body of research has yielded several replicable differences in FHP and FHN subjects, it also has been marked by many discrepancies in outcomes across studies. Future refinements in subject ascertainment and laboratory methodologies may help to bring greater procedural uniformity and consistency in study outcomes.
Torok, Natalie J
Alcoholic liver disease is one of the most prevalent liver diseases worldwide, and a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Alcoholic hepatitis is a severe form of liver injury in patients with alcohol abuse, can present as an acute on chronic liver failure associated with a rapid decline in liver synthetic function, and consequent increase in mortality. Despite therapy, about 30%-50% of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis eventually die. The pathogenic pathways that lead to the development of alcoholic hepatitis are complex and involve oxidative stress, gut dysbiosis, and dysregulation of the innate and adaptive immune system with injury to the parenchymal cells and activation of hepatic stellate cells. As accepted treatment approaches are currently limited, a better understanding of the pathophysiology would be required to generate new approaches that improve outcomes. This review focuses on recent advances in the diagnosis, pathogenesis of alcoholic hepatitis and novel treatment strategies.
Vallee, B L
The role of ethanol in the history of human development is here summarized under seven topics: I. Alcohol: the substitute for water as the major human beverage; II. Alcohol as a component of the diet and source of calories; III. Alcohol, concentration by distillation; IV. The Reformation, Temperance and Prohibition; V. Potable nonalcoholic beverages: Boiled water (coffee, tea); VI. Purification and sanitation of water; VII. The present and future.