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Sample records for alcohol marketing predicts

  1. Receptivity to alcohol marketing predicts initiation of alcohol use

    PubMed Central

    Henriksen, Lisa; Feighery, Ellen C.; Schleicher, Nina C.; Fortmann, Stephen P.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose This longitudinal study examined the influence of alcohol advertising and promotions on the initiation of alcohol use. A measure of receptivity to alcohol marketing was developed from research about tobacco marketing. Recall and recognition of alcohol brand names were also examined. Methods Data were obtained from in-class surveys of 6th, 7th, and 8th graders at baseline and 12-month follow-up. Participants who were classified as never drinkers at baseline (n=1,080) comprised the analysis sample. Logistic regression models examined the association of advertising receptivity at baseline with any alcohol use and current drinking at follow-up, adjusting for multiple risk factors, including peer alcohol use, school performance, risk taking, and demographics. Results At baseline, 29% of never drinkers either owned or wanted to use an alcohol branded promotional item (high receptivity), 12% students named the brand of their favorite alcohol ad (moderate receptivity) and 59% were not receptive to alcohol marketing. Approximately 29% of adolescents reported any alcohol use at follow-up; 13% reported drinking at least 1 or 2 days in the past month. Never drinkers who reported high receptivity to alcohol marketing at baseline were 77% more likely to initiate drinking by follow-up than those were not receptive. Smaller increases in the odds of alcohol use at follow-up were associated with better recall and recognition of alcohol brand names at baseline. Conclusions Alcohol advertising and promotions are associated with the uptake of drinking. Prevention programs may reduce adolescents’ receptivity to alcohol marketing by limiting their exposure to alcohol ads and promotions and by increasing their skepticism about the sponsors’ marketing tactics. PMID:18155027

  2. Receptivity to alcohol marketing predicts initiation of alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Henriksen, Lisa; Feighery, Ellen C; Schleicher, Nina C; Fortmann, Stephen P

    2008-01-01

    This longitudinal study examined the influence of alcohol advertising and promotions on the initiation of alcohol use. A measure of receptivity to alcohol marketing was developed from research about tobacco marketing. Recall and recognition of alcohol brand names were also examined. Data were obtained from in-class surveys of sixth, seventh, and eighth graders at baseline and 12-month follow-up. Participants who were classified as never drinkers at baseline (n = 1,080) comprised the analysis sample. Logistic regression models examined the association of advertising receptivity at baseline with any alcohol use and current drinking at follow-up, adjusting for multiple risk factors, including peer alcohol use, school performance, risk taking, and demographics. At baseline, 29% of never drinkers either owned or wanted to use an alcohol branded promotional item (high receptivity), 12% students named the brand of their favorite alcohol ad (moderate receptivity), and 59% were not receptive to alcohol marketing. Approximately 29% of adolescents reported any alcohol use at follow-up; 13% reported drinking at least 1 or 2 days in the past month. Never drinkers who reported high receptivity to alcohol marketing at baseline were 77% more likely to initiate drinking by follow-up than those were not receptive. Smaller increases in the odds of alcohol use at follow-up were associated with better recall and recognition of alcohol brand names at baseline. Alcohol advertising and promotions are associated with the uptake of drinking. Prevention programs may reduce adolescents' receptivity to alcohol marketing by limiting their exposure to alcohol ads and promotions and by increasing their skepticism about the sponsors' marketing tactics.

  3. Internet Alcohol Marketing and Underage Alcohol Use

    PubMed Central

    McClure, Auden C.; Tanski, Susanne E.; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Internet alcohol marketing is not well studied despite its prevalence and potential accessibility and attractiveness to youth. The objective was to examine longitudinal associations between self-reported engagement with Internet alcohol marketing and alcohol use transitions in youth. METHODS A US sample of 2012 youths aged 15 to 20 was surveyed in 2011. An Internet alcohol marketing receptivity score was developed, based on number of positive responses to seeing alcohol advertising on the Internet, visiting alcohol brand Web sites, being an online alcohol brand fan, and cued recall of alcohol brand home page images. We assessed the association between baseline marketing receptivity and both ever drinking and binge drinking (≥6 drinks per occasion) at 1-year follow-up with multiple logistic regression, controlling for baseline drinking status, Internet use, sociodemographics, personality characteristics, and peer or parent drinking. RESULTS At baseline, ever-drinking and binge-drinking prevalence was 55% and 27%, respectively. Many (59%) reported seeing Internet alcohol advertising, but few reported going to an alcohol Web site (6%) or being an online fan (3%). Higher Internet use, sensation seeking, having family or peers who drank, and past alcohol use were associated with Internet alcohol marketing receptivity, and a score of 1 or 2 was independently associated with greater adjusted odds of initiating binge drinking (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.13–2.78 and odds ratio 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–4.37 respectively) but not with initiation of ever drinking. CONCLUSIONS Although high levels of engagement with Internet alcohol marketing were uncommon, most underage youths reported seeing it, and we found a prospective association between receptivity to this type of alcohol marketing and future problem drinking, making additional research and ongoing surveillance important. PMID:26738886

  4. Internet Alcohol Marketing and Underage Alcohol Use.

    PubMed

    McClure, Auden C; Tanski, Susanne E; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D

    2016-02-01

    Internet alcohol marketing is not well studied despite its prevalence and potential accessibility and attractiveness to youth. The objective was to examine longitudinal associations between self-reported engagement with Internet alcohol marketing and alcohol use transitions in youth. A US sample of 2012 youths aged 15 to 20 was surveyed in 2011. An Internet alcohol marketing receptivity score was developed, based on number of positive responses to seeing alcohol advertising on the Internet, visiting alcohol brand Web sites, being an online alcohol brand fan, and cued recall of alcohol brand home page images. We assessed the association between baseline marketing receptivity and both ever drinking and binge drinking (≥6 drinks per occasion) at 1-year follow-up with multiple logistic regression, controlling for baseline drinking status, Internet use, sociodemographics, personality characteristics, and peer or parent drinking. At baseline, ever-drinking and binge-drinking prevalence was 55% and 27%, respectively. Many (59%) reported seeing Internet alcohol advertising, but few reported going to an alcohol Web site (6%) or being an online fan (3%). Higher Internet use, sensation seeking, having family or peers who drank, and past alcohol use were associated with Internet alcohol marketing receptivity, and a score of 1 or 2 was independently associated with greater adjusted odds of initiating binge drinking (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.78 and odds ratio 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-4.37 respectively) but not with initiation of ever drinking. Although high levels of engagement with Internet alcohol marketing were uncommon, most underage youths reported seeing it, and we found a prospective association between receptivity to this type of alcohol marketing and future problem drinking, making additional research and ongoing surveillance important. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  5. Assessing restrictiveness of national alcohol marketing policies.

    PubMed

    Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

    2014-01-01

    To develop an approach for monitoring national alcohol marketing policies globally, an area of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Alcohol Strategy. Data on restrictiveness of alcohol marketing policies came from the 2002 and 2008 WHO Global Surveys on Alcohol and Health. We included four scales in a sensitivity analysis to determine optimal weights to score countries on their marketing policies and applied the selected scale to assess national marketing policy restrictiveness. Nearly, 36% of countries had no marketing restrictions. The overall restrictiveness levels were not significantly different between 2002 and 2008. The number of countries with strict marketing regulations did not differ across years. This method of monitoring alcohol marketing restrictiveness helps track progress towards implementing WHO'S Global Alcohol Strategy. Findings indicate a consistent lack of restrictive policies over time, making this a priority area for national and global action. © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  6. Brain reactivity to alcohol and cannabis marketing during sobriety and intoxication.

    PubMed

    de Sousa Fernandes Perna, Elizabeth B; Theunissen, Eef L; Kuypers, Kim P C; Evers, Elisabeth A; Stiers, Peter; Toennes, Stefan W; Witteman, Jurriaan; van Dalen, Wim; Ramaekers, Johannes G

    2016-01-14

    Drugs of abuse stimulate striatal dopamine release and activate reward pathways. This study examined the impact of alcohol and cannabis marketing on the reward circuit in alcohol and cannabis users while sober and intoxicated. It was predicted that alcohol and cannabis marketing would increase striatal activation when sober and that reward sensitivity would be less during alcohol and cannabis intoxication. Heavy alcohol (n = 20) and regular cannabis users (n = 21) participated in a mixed factorial study involving administration of alcohol and placebo in the alcohol group and cannabis and placebo in the cannabis group. Non-drug users (n = 20) served as between group reference. Brain activation after exposure to alcohol and cannabis marketing movies was measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging and compared between groups while sober and compared with placebo while intoxicated. Implicit alcohol and cannabis cognitions were assessed by means of a single-category implicit association test. Alcohol and cannabis marketing significantly increased striatal BOLD activation across all groups while sober. Striatal activation however decreased during intoxication with alcohol and cannabis. Implicit associations with cannabis marketing cues were significantly more positive in alcohol and cannabis users as compared with non-drug using controls. Public advertising of alcohol or cannabis use elicits striatal activation in the brain's reward circuit. Reduction of marketing would reduce brain exposure to reward cues that motivate substance use. Conversely, elevated dopamine levels protect against the reinforcing potential of marketing.

  7. Regulation of alcohol marketing: a global view.

    PubMed

    Casswell, Sally; Maxwell, Anna

    2005-09-01

    The marketing of alcohol produces a new challenge for policy development internationally, in part because of the increase in the use of new, unmeasured technologies. Many of these new developments are, as yet, relatively invisible in the policy arena. New approaches in branding, the utilization of marketing opportunities via branded events and new products provide additional complexity to attempts to monitor and to restrict the impact of marketing on young people and other vulnerable groups. Current attempts to restrict marketing globally, which rely primarily on voluntary codes and focus on traditional media, are inadequate to these challenges. A new statutory framework is required to enable the monitoring and control of the full marketing mix in ways which match the sophistication of the marketing efforts themselves.

  8. Measuring Alcohol Marketing Engagement: The Development and Psychometric Properties of the Alcohol Marketing Engagement Scale.

    PubMed

    Robertson, Angela; Morse, David T; Hood, Kristina; Walker, Courtney

    Ample evidence exists in support of the influence of media, both traditional and electronic, on perceptions and engagement with alcohol marketing. We describe the development, calibration, and evidence for technical quality and utility for a new measure, the Alcohol Marketing Engagement Scale. Using two samples of college undergraduates (n1 = 199, n2 = 732), we collected field test responses to a total of 13 items. Initial support for scale validity is presented via correlations with attributes previously shown to be related to alcohol engagement. While the joint map of estimated scale locations of items and respondents indicates the need for further scale development, the results of the present analyses are promising. Implications for use in research are discussed.

  9. Alcoholism and alcohol drinking habits predicted from alcohol dehydrogenase genes.

    PubMed

    Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Nordestgaard, Børge Grønne; Rasmussen, Søren; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne; Grønbaek, Morten

    2008-06-01

    Alcohol drinking habits and alcoholism are partly genetically determined. Alcohol is degraded primarily by alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) wherein genetic variation that affects the rate of alcohol degradation is found in ADH1B and ADH1C. It is biologically plausible that these variations may be associated with alcohol drinking habits and alcoholism. By genotyping 9080 white men and women from the general population, we found that men and women with ADH1B slow vs fast alcohol degradation drank more alcohol and had a higher risk of everyday drinking, heavy drinking, excessive drinking and of alcoholism. For example, the weekly alcohol intake was 9.8 drinks (95% confidence interval (CI): 9.1-11) among men with the ADH1B.1/1 genotype compared to 7.5 drinks (95% CI: 6.4-8.7) among men with the ADH1B.1/2 genotype, and the odds ratio (OR) for heavy drinking was 3.1 (95% CI: 1.7-5.7) among men with the ADH1B.1/1 genotype compared to men with the ADH1B.1/2 genotype. Furthermore, individuals with ADH1C slow vs fast alcohol degradation had a higher risk of heavy and excessive drinking. For example, the OR for heavy drinking was 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1-1.8) among men with the ADH1C.1/2 genotype and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.0-1.9) among men with the ADH1B.2/2 genotype, compared with men with the ADH1C.1/1 genotype. Results for ADH1B and ADH1C genotypes among men and women were similar. Finally, because slow ADH1B alcohol degradation is found in more than 90% of the white population compared to less than 10% of East Asians, the population attributable risk of heavy drinking and alcoholism by ADH1B.1/1 genotype was 67 and 62% among the white population compared with 9 and 24% among the East Asian population.

  10. Profits or people? The informative case of alcohol marketing.

    PubMed

    Casswell, Sally

    2014-11-28

    To analyse influence on alcohol marketing policy in New Zealand. Document and literature review. There is a powerful argument and popular support for restricting alcohol marketing but no significant policy action taken. Greater priority has been placed on the profits of influential corporations compared with protecting the health of future generations of New Zealanders.

  11. Intoxigenic digital spaces? Youth, social networking sites and alcohol marketing.

    PubMed

    Griffiths, Richard; Casswell, Sally

    2010-09-01

    To examine how young people in New Zealand engage with alcohol and reproduce alcohol marketing messages and alcohol-related branding in 'Bebo', a popular social networking site (SNS) on the Internet. Data are drawn from information posted on approximately 150 Bebo Web pages and analysed by way of textual analysis and cyberspace ethnography. Social networking sites, such as Bebo, provide young people with a digital space in which to share a range of alcohol marketing messages via peer-to-peer transmission. Bebo also enables youth to communicate to one another how they consume alcohol and their views of alcohol marketing messages. The information being shared by young people who use Bebo is openly provided in the form of personal information, forum comments, digital photographs and answering quizzes about their engagement with alcohol. Through this sharing of information in the digital Internet environment, young people are creating 'intoxigenic social identities' as well as 'intoxigenic digital spaces' that further contribute towards the normalisation of youth consumption of alcohol. A better understanding of how youth are using the Internet to share their experiences with alcohol and engagement with alcohol-related messages is crucial to public health research as alcohol marketing practices rapidly evolve.

  12. The impact of alcohol marketing on youth drinking behaviour: a two-stage cohort study.

    PubMed

    Gordon, Ross; MacKintosh, Anne Marie; Moodie, Crawford

    2010-01-01

    To examine whether awareness of, and involvement with alcohol marketing at age 13 is predictive of initiation of drinking, frequency of drinking and units of alcohol consumed at age 15. A two-stage cohort study, involving a questionnaire survey, combining interview and self-completion, was administered in respondents' homes. Respondents were drawn from secondary schools in three adjoining local authority areas in the West of Scotland, UK. From a baseline sample of 920 teenagers (aged 12-14, mean age 13), in 2006, a cohort of 552 was followed up 2 years later (aged 14-16, mean age 15). Data were gathered on multiple forms of alcohol marketing and measures of drinking initiation, frequency and consumption. At follow-up, logistic regression demonstrated that, after controlling for confounding variables, involvement with alcohol marketing at baseline was predictive of both uptake of drinking and increased frequency of drinking. Awareness of marketing at baseline was also associated with an increased frequency of drinking at follow-up. Our findings demonstrate an association between involvement with, and awareness of, alcohol marketing and drinking uptake or increased drinking frequency, and we consider whether the current regulatory environment affords youth sufficient protection from alcohol marketing.

  13. Who 'likes' alcohol? Young Australians' engagement with alcohol marketing via social media and related alcohol consumption patterns.

    PubMed

    Carrotte, Elise R; Dietze, Paul M; Wright, Cassandra J; Lim, Megan S

    2016-10-01

    To describe patterns of 'liking' alcohol marketing social media pages, and determine related alcohol consumption patterns among young Australians. Participants were 1,001 Australians aged 15-29 years who completed a cross-sectional online survey. Logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used. A quarter (249/1001, 24.9%) liked at least one of the alcohol marketing social media pages, most commonly brands of spirits, cider and alcohol retailers. Underage participants were as likely as older participants to report liking these pages. Alcohol marketing social media use was significantly and independently associated with male gender, living outside a major city, ever using illegal drugs and early age of first alcohol consumption (all p<0.05). Alcohol marketing social media use (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.8, p=<0.001) was independently associated with higher categories on the AUDIT-C, indicating riskier alcohol consumption. Liking or following alcohol marketing pages is common regardless of age, and associated with riskier alcohol consumption, among young Australians. There is a need to develop strategies to reduce the exposure to, and potential impact of, alcohol marketing social media pages on young Australians, and ensure these pages are neither accessible to nor targeting underage social media users. © 2016 Public Health Association of Australia.

  14. Flavored alcoholic beverages: an international marketing campaign that targets youth.

    PubMed

    Mosher, James F; Johnsson, Diane

    2005-09-01

    Flavored alcoholic beverages (FABs) were first introduced into the alcohol market in the early I980s in the form of wine coolers. FABs are sweet, relatively low alcohol content beverages that are designed for "entry-level" drinkers. The alcohol industry has introduced new products and production methods to expand the category's popularity. Research suggests that they are popular with underage drinkers, particularly teenage girls, and that the industry uses marketing practices that appear to target youth. FABs are now marketed globally, and their production and marketing vary by country based on national regulatory restraints. In the United States, industry representations that the products are malt beverages for regulatory purposes appears to violate many state laws because the alcohol in the FABs is derived from distilled spirits. Recommendations for regulatory reform, including new legal definitions of FABs, increased taxes, and restrictions on availability, are applicable at both national and state levels.

  15. MAOA expression predicts vulnerability for alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Cervera-Juanes, R; Wilhem, L J; Park, B; Lee, R; Locke, J; Helms, C; Gonzales, S; Wand, G; Jones, S R; Grant, K A; Ferguson, B

    2016-04-01

    The role of the monoamines dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) and the monoamine-metabolizing enzyme monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) have been repeatedly implicated in studies of alcohol use and dependence. Genetic investigations of MAOA have yielded conflicting associations between a common polymorphism (MAOA-LPR) and risk for alcohol abuse. The present study provides direct comparison of tissue-specific MAOA expression and the level of alcohol consumption. We analyzed rhesus macaque MAOA (rhMAOA) expression in blood from males before and after 12 months of alcohol self-administration. In addition, nucleus accumbens core (NAc core) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were collected from alcohol access and control (no alcohol access) subjects at the 12-month time point for comparison. The rhMAOA expression level in the blood of alcohol-naive subjects was negatively correlated with subsequent alcohol consumption level. The mRNA expression was independent of rhMAOA-LPR genotype and global promoter methylation. After 12 months of alcohol use, blood rhMAOA expression had decreased in an alcohol dose-dependent manner. Also after 12 months, rhMAOA expression in the NAc core was significantly lower in the heavy drinkers, as compared with control subjects. The CSF measured higher levels of DA and lower DOPAC/DA ratios among the heavy drinkers at the same time point. These results provide novel evidence that blood MAOA expression predicts alcohol consumption and that heavy alcohol use is linked to low MAOA expression in both the blood and NAc core. Together, the findings suggest a mechanistic link between dampened MAOA expression, elevated DA and alcohol abuse.

  16. MAOA EXPRESSION PREDICTS VULNERABILITY FOR ALCOHOL USE

    PubMed Central

    Cervera-Juanes, Rita; Wilhem, Larry J.; Park, Byung; Lee, Richard; Locke, Jason; Helms, Christa; Gonzales, Steven; Wand, Gary; Jones, Sara R.; Grant, Kathleen A.; Ferguson, Betsy

    2015-01-01

    The role of the monoamines dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) and the monoamine-metabolizing enzyme monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) have been repeatedly implicated in studies of alcohol use and dependence. Genetic investigations of MAOA have yielded conflicting associations between a common polymorphism (MAOA-LPR) and risk for alcohol abuse. The present study provides direct comparison of tissue-specific MAOA expression and the level of alcohol consumption. We analyzed rhesus macaque MAOA (rhMAOA) expression in blood from males before and after 12-months of alcohol self-administration. In addition, nucleus accumbens core (NAc core) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were collected from alcohol-access and control (no alcohol access) subjects at the 12-month time point for comparison. The rhMAOA expression level in the blood of alcohol-naïve subjects was negatively correlated with subsequent alcohol consumption level. The mRNA expression was independent of rhMAOA-LPR genotype and global promoter methylation. After 12 months of alcohol use, blood rhMAOA expression had decreased in an alcohol dose-dependent manner. Also after 12 months, rhMAOA expression in the NAc core was significantly lower in the heavy drinkers, as compared to control subjects. The CSF measured higher levels of DA and lower DOPAC/DA ratios amongst the heavy drinkers at the same time point. These results provide novel evidence that blood MAOA expression predicts alcohol consumption and that heavy alcohol use is linked to low MAOA expression in both the blood and NAc core. Together, the findings suggest a mechanistic link between dampened MAOA expression, elevated DA and alcohol abuse. PMID:26148813

  17. Multinational Alcohol Market Development and Public Health: Diageo in India.

    PubMed

    Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

    2015-11-01

    Alcohol is a risk factor for communicable and noncommunicable diseases, and alcohol consumption is rising steadily in India. The growth of multinational alcohol corporations, such as Diageo, contributes to India's changing alcohol environment. We provide a brief history of India's alcohol regulation for context and examine Diageo's strategies for expansion in India in 2013 and 2014. Diageo is attracted to India's younger generation, women, and emerging middle class for growth opportunities. Components of Diageo's responsibility strategy conflict with evidence-based public health recommendations for reducing harmful alcohol consumption. Diageo's strategies for achieving market dominance in India are at odds with public health evidence. We conclude with recommendations for protecting public health in emerging markets.

  18. Alcohol marketing receptivity, marketing-specific cognitions, and underage binge drinking.

    PubMed

    McClure, Auden C; Stoolmiller, Mike; Tanski, Susanne E; Engels, Rutger C M E; Sargent, James D

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation between alcohol marketing and problematic drinking among experimental underage drinkers. This study describes a cross-sectional analysis of 1,734 U.S. 15- to 20-year-old underage drinkers, recruited for a national study of media and substance use. Subjects were queried about a number of alcohol marketing variables including TV time, Internet time, favorite alcohol ad, ownership of alcohol-branded merchandise (ABM), and exposure to alcohol brands in movies. The relation between these exposures and current (30-day) binge drinking was assessed, as were proposed mediators of this relation, including marketing-specific cognitions (drinker identity and favorite brand to drink), favorable alcohol expectancies, and alcohol norms. Paths were tested in a structural equation model that controlled for sociodemographics, personality, and peer drinking. Almost one-third of this sample of ever drinkers had engaged in 30-day binge drinking. Correlations between mediators were all statistically significant (range 0.16 to 0.47), and all were significantly associated with binge drinking. Statistically significant mediation was found for the association between ABM ownership and binge drinking through both drinker identity and having a favorite brand to drink, which also mediated the path between movie brand exposure and binge drinking. Peer drinking and sensation seeking were associated with binge drinking in paths through all mediators. Associations between alcohol marketing and binge drinking were mediated through marketing-specific cognitions that assess drinker identity and brand allegiance, cognitions that marketers aim to cultivate in the consumer. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on

  19. Alcohol marketing in televised international football: frequency analysis.

    PubMed

    Adams, Jean; Coleman, James; White, Martin

    2014-05-20

    Alcohol marketing includes sponsorship of individuals, organisations and sporting events. Football (soccer) is one of the most popular spectator sports worldwide. No previous studies have quantified the frequency of alcohol marketing in a high profile international football tournament. The aims were to determine: the frequency and nature of visual references to alcohol in a representative sample of EURO2012 matches broadcast in the UK; and if frequency or nature varied between matches broadcast on public service and commercial channels, or between matches that did and did not feature England. Eight matches selected by stratified random sampling were recorded. All visual references to alcohol were identified using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. 1846 visual references to alcohol were identified over 1487 minutes of broadcast--an average of 1.24 references per minute. The mean number of references per minute was higher in matches that did vs did not feature England (p = 0.004), but did not differ between matches broadcast on public service vs commercial channels (p = 0.92). The frequency of visual references to alcohol was universally high and higher in matches featuring the only UK home team--England--suggesting that there may be targeting of particularly highly viewed matches. References were embedded in broadcasts, and not particular to commercial channels including paid-for advertising. New UK codes-of-conduct on alcohol marketing at sporting events will not reduce the level of marketing reported here.

  20. Alcohol marketing in televised international football: frequency analysis

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Alcohol marketing includes sponsorship of individuals, organisations and sporting events. Football (soccer) is one of the most popular spectator sports worldwide. No previous studies have quantified the frequency of alcohol marketing in a high profile international football tournament. The aims were to determine: the frequency and nature of visual references to alcohol in a representative sample of EURO2012 matches broadcast in the UK; and if frequency or nature varied between matches broadcast on public service and commercial channels, or between matches that did and did not feature England. Methods Eight matches selected by stratified random sampling were recorded. All visual references to alcohol were identified using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. Results 1846 visual references to alcohol were identified over 1487 minutes of broadcast - an average of 1.24 references per minute. The mean number of references per minute was higher in matches that did vs did not feature England (p = 0.004), but did not differ between matches broadcast on public service vs commercial channels (p = 0.92). Conclusions The frequency of visual references to alcohol was universally high and higher in matches featuring the only UK home team - England - suggesting that there may be targeting of particularly highly viewed matches. References were embedded in broadcasts, and not particular to commercial channels including paid-for advertising. New UK codes-of-conduct on alcohol marketing at sporting events will not reduce the level of marketing reported here. PMID:24885718

  1. Evaluating Prediction Markets for Internal Control Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-05-01

    0 1. Introduction Since the beginning of prediction market research , various applications have been discussed . From the predictions of political...While the use 2 of corporate prediction markets for research purposes tends to lack transparency and reproducibility, the experi ment was...Econontic Research 1.60 Lecturer #3 Responsible Project Management 0.67 Lecturer #5 Macroeconomics 2. 14 Lecturer #6 Market and State 2.59

  2. Alcohol marketing and youth alcohol consumption: a systematic review of longitudinal studies published since 2008.

    PubMed

    Jernigan, David; Noel, Jonathan; Landon, Jane; Thornton, Nicole; Lobstein, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Youth alcohol consumption is a major global public health concern. Previous reviews have concluded that exposure to alcohol marketing was associated with earlier drinking initiation and higher alcohol consumption among youth. This review examined longitudinal studies published since those earlier reviews. Peer-reviewed papers were identified in medical, scientific and social science databases, supplemented by examination of reference lists. Non-peer-reviewed papers were included if they were published by organizations deemed to be authoritative, were fully referenced and contained primary data not available elsewhere. Papers were restricted to those that included measures of marketing exposure and alcohol consumption for at least 500 underage people. Multiple authors reviewed studies for inclusion and assessed their quality using the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute's Quality Assessment Tool for Observation Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. Twelve studies (ranging in duration from 9 months to 8 years), following nine unique cohorts not reported on previously involving 35 219 participants from Europe, Asia and North America, met inclusion criteria. All 12 found evidence of a positive association between level of marketing exposure and level of youth alcohol consumption. Some found significant associations between youth exposure to alcohol marketing and initiation of alcohol use (odds ratios ranging from 1.00 to 1.69), and there were clear associations between exposure and subsequent binge or hazardous drinking (odds ratios ranging from 1.38 to 2.15). Mediators included marketing receptivity, brand recognition and alcohol expectancies. Levels of marketing exposure among younger adolescents were similar to those found among older adolescents and young adults. Young people who have greater exposure to alcohol marketing appear to be more likely subsequently to initiate alcohol use and engage in binge and hazardous drinking. © 2016 Society for the Study of

  3. Culture clash: alcohol marketing and public health aspirations.

    PubMed

    Munro, Geoffrey; de Wever, Johanna

    2008-03-01

    It is of no coincidence that a number of recent Harm Reduction Digests have addressed the issue of the reduction of alcohol-related harm. Despite the dominant focus on illicit drug use in the popular discourse, alcohol remains Australia's number one drug problem, as it is in many other developed countries. In this Digest Munro and de Wever use the 'four Ps' of marketing: product, price, place and promotion, to critique the two decades industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing. They conclude that if we are going to develop policies which effectively change Australian drinking culture to reduce alcohol-related harm, we need first to accept that the alcohol industry and the health field have separate and conflicting interests.

  4. Everyday, everywhere: alcohol marketing and social media--current trends.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, James

    2012-01-01

    To provide a snapshot content analysis of social media marketing among leading alcohol brands in the UK, and to outline the implications for both regulatory policies and further research. Using screengrab technology, the complete Facebook walls and Twitter timelines for 12 leading UK alcohol brands in November 2011 were captured and archived. A total of 701 brand-authored posts were identified and categorized using a thematic coding frame. Key strategic trends were identified and analysed in the light of contextual research into recent developments in marketing practice within the alcohol industry. A number of dominating trends were identified. These included the use of real-world tie-ins, interactive games, competitions and time-specific suggestions to drink. These methods reflect a strategy of branded conversation-stimulus which is favoured by social media marketing agencies. A number of distinct marketing methods are deployed by alcohol brands when using social media. These may undermine policies which seek to change social norms around drinking, especially the normalization of daily consumption. Social media marketing also raises questions regarding the efficacy of reactive regulatory frameworks. Further research into both the nature and impact of alcohol marketing on social media is needed.

  5. Alcohol Marketing Receptivity, Marketing-specific Cognitions and Underage Binge Drinking

    PubMed Central

    McClure, Auden C.; Stoolmiller, Mike; Tanski, Susanne E.; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Sargent, James D.

    2012-01-01

    Background Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation between alcohol marketing and problematic drinking among experimental underage drinkers. Methods This paper describes a cross-sectional analysis of 1734 U.S. 15–20 year old underage drinkers, recruited for a national study of media and substance use. Subjects were queried about a number of alcohol marketing variables including television time, internet time, favorite alcohol ad, ownership of alcohol branded merchandise (ABM), and exposure to alcohol brands in movies. The relation between these exposures and current (30 day) binge drinking was assessed, as were proposed mediators of this relation, including marketing-specific cognitions (drinker identity and favorite brand to drink), favorable alcohol expectancies and alcohol norms. Paths were tested in a structural equation model that controlled for socio-demographics, personality and peer drinking. Results Almost one-third of this sample of ever drinkers had engaged in 30 day binge drinking. Correlations among mediators were all statistically significant (range 0.16 – 0.47) and all were significantly associated with binge drinking. Statistically significant mediation was found for the association between ABM ownership and binge drinking through both drinker identity and having a favorite brand, which also mediated the path between movie brand exposure and binge drinking. Peer drinking and sensation seeking were associated with binge drinking in paths through all mediators. Conclusions Associations between alcohol marketing and binge drinking were mediated through marketing-specific cognitions that assess drinker identity and brand allegiance, cognitions that marketers aim to cultivate in the consumer. PMID:23256927

  6. Parental alcohol involvement and adolescent alcohol expectancies predict alcohol involvement in male adolescents.

    PubMed

    Cranford, James A; Zucker, Robert A; Jester, Jennifer M; Puttler, Leon I; Fitzgerald, Hiram E

    2010-09-01

    Current models of adolescent drinking behavior hypothesize that alcohol expectancies mediate the effects of other proximal and distal risk factors. This longitudinal study tested the hypothesis that the effects of parental alcohol involvement on their children's drinking behavior in mid-adolescence are mediated by the children's alcohol expectancies in early adolescence. A sample of 148 initially 9-11 year old boys and their parents from a high-risk population and a contrast group of community families completed measures of drinking behavior and alcohol expectancies over a 6-year interval. We analyzed data from middle childhood (M age = 10.4 years), early adolescence (M age = 13.5 years), and mid-adolescence (M age = 16.5 years). The sample was restricted only to adolescents who had begun to drink by mid-adolescence. Results from zero-inflated Poisson regression analyses showed that 1) maternal drinking during their children's middle childhood predicted number of drinking days in middle adolescence; 2) negative and positive alcohol expectancies in early adolescence predicted odds of any intoxication in middle adolescence; and 3) paternal alcoholism during their children's middle childhood and adolescents' alcohol expectancies in early adolescence predicted frequency of intoxication in middle adolescence. Contrary to predictions, child alcohol expectancies did not mediate the effects of parental alcohol involvement in this high-risk sample. Different aspects of parental alcohol involvement, along with early adolescent alcohol expectancies, independently predicted adolescent drinking behavior in middle adolescence. Alternative pathways for the influence of maternal and paternal alcohol involvement and implications for expectancy models of adolescent drinking behavior were discussed.

  7. Alcohol marketing research: the need for a new agenda.

    PubMed

    Meier, Petra S

    2011-03-01

    This paper aims to contribute to a rethink of marketing research priorities to address policy makers' evidence needs in relation to alcohol marketing. Discussion paper reviewing evidence gaps identified during an appraisal of policy options to restrict alcohol marketing. Evidence requirements can be categorized as follows: (i) the size of marketing effects for the whole population and for policy-relevant population subgroups, (ii) the balance between immediate and long-term effects and the time lag, duration and cumulative build-up of effects and (iii) comparative effects of partial versus comprehensive marketing restrictions on consumption and harm. These knowledge gaps impede the appraisal and evaluation of existing and new interventions, because without understanding the size and timing of expected effects, researchers may choose inadequate time-frames, samples or sample sizes. To date, research has tended to rely on simplified models of marketing and has focused disproportionately on youth populations. The effects of cumulative exposure across multiple marketing channels, targeting of messages at certain population groups and indirect effects of advertising on consumption remain unclear. It is essential that studies into marketing effect sizes are geared towards informing policy decision-makers, anchored strongly in theory, use measures of effect that are well-justified and recognize fully the complexities of alcohol marketing efforts. © 2010 The Author, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

    Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

  9. Market Research: Faster, Smarter and Predictive

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-01

    Defense AT&L: July–August 2015 40 Market Research Faster, Smarter and Predictive Kenyata Wesley n Farhad Chowdhury 41 Defense AT&L: July–August...Par-ticipation, Including Through More Effective Use of Market Research” Better Buying Power (BBP) 2.0 initiative, several ac- tions were completed to...support improving market research capa- bility within the Department of Defense (DoD). Although acquisition professionals perform market research

  10. European longitudinal study on the relationship between adolescents' alcohol marketing exposure and alcohol use.

    PubMed

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Tanghe, Jacqueline; de Leeuw, Rebecca; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Beccaria, Franca; Bujalski, Michał; Celata, Corrado; Gosselt, Jordy; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Słodownik, Luiza; Wothge, Jördis; van Dalen, Wim

    2016-10-01

    This is the first study to examine the effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' drinking in a cross-national context. The aim was to examine reciprocal processes between exposure to a wide range of alcohol marketing types and adolescent drinking, controlled for non-alcohol branded media exposure. Prospective observational study (11-12- and 14-17-month intervals), using a three-wave autoregressive cross-lagged model. School-based sample in 181 state-funded schools in Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland. A total of 9075 eligible respondents participated in the survey (mean age 14 years, 49.5% male. Adolescents reported their frequency of past-month drinking and binge drinking. Alcohol marketing exposure was measured by a latent variable with 13 items measuring exposure to online alcohol marketing, televised alcohol advertising, alcohol sport sponsorship, music event/festival sponsorship, ownership alcohol-branded promotional items, reception of free samples and exposure to price offers. Confounders were age, gender, education, country, internet use, exposure to non-alcohol sponsored football championships and television programmes without alcohol commercials. The analyses showed one-directional long-term effects of alcohol marketing exposure on drinking (exposure T1 on drinking T2: β = 0.420 (0.058), P < 0.001, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.324-0.515; exposure T2 on drinking T3: β = 0.200 (0.044), P < 0.001, 95% CI = 0.127-0.272; drinking T1 and drinking T2 on exposure: P > 0.05). Similar results were found in the binge drinking model (exposure T1 on binge T2: β = 0.409 (0.054), P < 0.001, 95% CI = 0.320-0.499; exposure T2 on binge T3: β = 0.168 (0.050), P = 0.001, 95% CI = 0.086-0.250; binge T1 and binge T2 on exposure: P > 0.05). There appears to be a one-way effect of alcohol marketing exposure on adolescents' alcohol use over time, which cannot be explained by either previous drinking or

  11. Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation

    PubMed Central

    Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the ‘regulatory pyramid’, alcohol being less regulated than tobacco. PMID:28118411

  12. Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation.

    PubMed

    Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the 'regulatory pyramid', alcohol being less regulated than tobacco.

  13. An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science

    PubMed Central

    Almenberg, Johan; Kittlitz, Ken; Pfeiffer, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets are powerful forecasting tools. They have the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to provide incentives for information acquisition. These market functionalities can be very valuable for scientific research. Here, we report an experiment that examines the compatibility of prediction markets with the current practice of scientific publication. We investigated three settings. In the first setting, different pieces of information were disclosed to the public during the experiment. In the second setting, participants received private information. In the third setting, each piece of information was private at first, but was subsequently disclosed to the public. An automated, subsidizing market maker provided additional incentives for trading and mitigated liquidity problems. We find that the third setting combines the advantages of the first and second settings. Market performance was as good as in the setting with public information, and better than in the setting with private information. In contrast to the first setting, participants could benefit from information advantages. Thus the publication of information does not detract from the functionality of prediction markets. We conclude that for integrating prediction markets into the practice of scientific research it is of advantage to use subsidizing market makers, and to keep markets aligned with current publication practice. PMID:20041139

  14. Impact of alcohol fuel production on agricultural markets

    SciTech Connect

    Gardiner, W.H.

    1986-01-01

    Production of alcohol from biomass feedstocks, such as corn, was given Federal and State support which resulted in alcohol production rising from 20 million gallons in 1979 to 430 million gallons in 1984. This study estimates the impacts of alcohol production from corn on selected agricultural markets. The tool of analysis was a three region (United States, the European Community and the rest of the world) econometric model of the markets for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat and corn byproduct feeds. Three alternative growth paths for alcohol production (totalling 1.1, 2.0, and 3.0 billion gallons) were analyzed with the model in the context of three different trade environments. The results of this analysis indicate that alcohol production of 1.1 billion gallons by 1980 would have caused moderate adjustments to commodity markets while 3.0 billion gallons would have caused major adjustments. Corn prices rose sharply with increased alcohol production as did wheat prices but to a somewhat lesser extent. The substitution of corn for soybeans on the supply side was not sufficient to offset the demand depressing effects of corn byproduct feeds on soybean meal which translated into slightly lower soybean prices. A quota limiting imports of corn gluten feed into the EC to three million tons annually would cause reductions in export earnings for corn millers.

  15. Alcohol marketing in televised English professional football: a frequency analysis.

    PubMed

    Graham, Andrew; Adams, Jean

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to explore the frequency of alcohol marketing (both formal commercials and otherwise) in televised top-class English professional football matches. A purposive sample of six broadcasts (total = 1101 min) of televised top-class English club football matches were identified and recorded in full. A customized coding framework was used to identify and categorize all verbal and visual alcohol references in non-commercial broadcasting. The number and the duration of all formal alcohol commercials were also noted. A mean of 111 visual references and 2 verbal references to alcohol per hour of broadcast were identified. Nearly all visual references were to beer products and were primarily simple logos or branding. The majority of verbal alcohol references were related to title-sponsorship of competitions. A total of 17 formal alcohol commercials were identified, accounting for <1% of total broadcast time. Visual alcohol references in televised top-class English football matches are common with an average of nearly two per minute. Verbal references are rare and formal alcohol commercials account for <1% of broadcast time. Restriction of all alcohol sports sponsorship, as seen for tobacco, may be justified.

  16. The long arm of expectancies: adolescent alcohol expectancies predict adult alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Patrick, Megan E; Wray-Lake, Laura; Finlay, Andrea K; Maggs, Jennifer L

    2010-01-01

    Alcohol expectancies are strong concurrent predictors of alcohol use and problems, but the current study addressed their unique power to predict from adolescence to midlife. Long-term longitudinal data from the national British Cohort Study 1970 (N = 2146, 59.8% female) were used to predict alcohol use and misuse in the mid-30s by alcohol expectancies reported in adolescence. Cohort members with more positive alcohol expectancies at age 16 reported greater alcohol quantity concurrently, increases in alcohol quantity relative to their peers between ages 16 and 35, and a higher likelihood of lifetime and previous year alcohol misuse at age 35, independent of gender, social class in family of origin, age of alcohol use onset, adolescent delinquent behavior and age 16 exam scores. Alcohol expectancies were strong proximal predictors of alcohol use and predicted relative change in alcohol use and misuse across two decades into middle adulthood.

  17. Price dynamics in political prediction markets.

    PubMed

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A; Amaral, Luís A Nunes

    2009-01-20

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election "winner-takes-all" markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series.

  18. Price dynamics in political prediction markets

    PubMed Central

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  19. Trade law and alcohol regulation: what role for a global Alcohol Marketing Code?

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Andrew D; Casben, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    Following calls for restrictions and bans on alcohol advertising, and in light of the tobacco industry's challenge to Australia's tobacco plain packaging measure, a tobacco control measure finding support in the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, this paper considers what role, if any, an international alcohol marketing code might have in preventing or reducing the risk of challenges to domestic alcohol marketing restrictions under trade rules. Narrative review of international trade and health instruments and international trade court judgements regarding alcohol products and marketing restrictions. The experience of European trade courts in the litigation of similar measures suggests that World Trade Organization rules have sufficient flexibility to support the implementation of alcohol marketing restrictions. However, the experience also highlights the possibility that public health measures have disproportionate and unjustifiable trade effects and that the ability of a public health measure to withstand a challenge under trade rules will turn on its particular design and implementation. Measures implemented pursuant to international public health instruments are not immune to trade law challenges. Close collaboration between health policymakers, trade officials and lawyers, from as early as the research stage in the development of a measure to ensure a robust evidence base, will ensure the best chance of regulatory survival for an international marketing code. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  20. Differential segmentation responses to an alcohol social marketing program.

    PubMed

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Schuster, Lisa; Drennan, Judy; Russell-Bennett, Rebekah; Leo, Cheryl; Gullo, Matthew J; Connor, Jason P

    2015-10-01

    This study seeks to establish whether meaningful subgroups exist within a 14-16 year old adolescent population and if these segments respond differently to the Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA) intervention, a school-based alcohol social marketing program. This study is part of a larger cluster randomized controlled evaluation of the GOKA program implemented in 14 schools in 2013/2014. TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to segment 2,114 high school adolescents (14-16 years old) on the basis of 22 demographic, behavioral, and psychographic variables. Program effects on knowledge, attitudes, behavioral intentions, social norms, alcohol expectancies, and drinking refusal self-efficacy of identified segments were subsequently examined. Three segments were identified: (1) Abstainers, (2) Bingers, and (3) Moderate Drinkers. Program effects varied significantly across segments. The strongest positive change effects post-participation were observed for Bingers, while mixed effects were evident for Moderate Drinkers and Abstainers. These findings provide preliminary empirical evidence supporting the application of social marketing segmentation in alcohol education programs. Development of targeted programs that meet the unique needs of each of the three identified segments will extend the social marketing footprint in alcohol education. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Stock market index prediction using neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok

    1994-03-01

    A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.

  2. The prediction of habitual alcohol use from alcohol related expectancies and personality.

    PubMed

    Jackson, C P; Matthews, G

    1988-01-01

    Two studies testing social learning theory predictions of habitual alcohol use in college students are reported. Study 1 (N = 96) investigated alcohol related expectancies and social desirability as predictors of habitual alcohol use. Higher habitual alcohol use was correlated with higher expected dominance, but this correlation was not modified by social desirability or subject sex. Study 2 (N = 88) tested effects of personality traits on habitual alcohol use. Habitual alcohol use was positively correlated with EPI extraversion. Examination of extraversion sub-factors suggests that impulsivity and sociability independently predict drinking. The data indicate the strengths and limitations of alcohol related expectancy as an explanatory construct.

  3. Children's exposure to alcohol marketing within supermarkets: An objective analysis using GPS technology and wearable cameras.

    PubMed

    Chambers, T; Pearson, A L; Stanley, J; Smith, M; Barr, M; Ni Mhurchu, C; Signal, L

    2017-07-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing within alcohol retailers has been associated with higher rates of childhood drinking, brand recognition, and marketing recall. This study aimed to objectively measure children's everyday exposure to alcohol marketing within supermarkets. Children aged 11-13 (n = 167) each wore a wearable camera and GPS device for four consecutive days. Micro-spatial analyses were used to examine exposures within supermarkets. In alcohol retailing supermarkets (n = 30), children encountered alcohol marketing on 85% of their visits (n = 78). Alcohol marketing was frequently near everyday goods (bread and milk) or entrance/exit. Alcohol sales in supermarkets should be banned in order to protect children from alcohol marketing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Toward Predicting Popularity of Social Marketing Messages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Bei; Chen, Miao; Kwok, Linchi

    Popularity of social marketing messages indicates the effectiveness of the corresponding marketing strategies. This research aims to discover the characteristics of social marketing messages that contribute to different level of popularity. Using messages posted by a sample of restaurants on Facebook as a case study, we measured the message popularity by the number of "likes" voted by fans, and examined the relationship between the message popularity and two properties of the messages: (1) content, and (2) media type. Combining a number of text mining and statistics methods, we have discovered some interesting patterns correlated to "more popular" and "less popular" social marketing messages. This work lays foundation for building computational models to predict the popularity of social marketing messages in the future.

  5. Effects of school, family and alcohol marketing communication on alcohol use and intentions to drink among Thai students.

    PubMed

    Kheokao, Jantima K; Kirkgulthorn, Tassanee; Yingrengreung, Siritorn; Singhprapai, Phuwasith

    2013-07-04

    This study explored effects of family, school, and marketing communications on alcohol use and intention to drink of Thai students. We conducted a survey in which 5,184 students participated. Respondents were selected randomly from school districts throughout Thailand. In this survey we measured the exposure to, reception of, and perceptions concerning alcohol marketing communication, school absenteeism and achievement, family alcohol use, students' alcohol use, and drinking intentions. Findings indicated students' low alcohol use, moderate intention to drink, and high prevalence of family drinking. The levels of exposure and also the information receptivity to alcohol media marketing of Thai students were low. The respondents had a high level of media literacy on alcohol marketing communication. Multiple regression and focus group discussions provided support for the contention that there were significant effects of school achievement, absenteeism and media marketing communication on alcohol use (R2 = 14%) and intention to drink (R2 = 11%). Therefore, consideration of relevant school and alcohol policies, including monitoring of media marketing communication, will be needed.

  6. Vulnerability to alcohol-related problems: a policy brief with implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing.

    PubMed

    Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Noel, Jonathan K; Ritson, E Bruce

    2017-01-01

    The concern that alcohol advertising can have detrimental effects on vulnerable viewers has prompted the development of codes of responsible advertising practices. This paper evaluates critically the concept of vulnerability as it applies to (1) susceptibility to alcohol-related harm and (2) susceptibility to the effects of marketing, and describes its implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing. We describe the findings of key published studies, review papers and expert reports to determine whether these two types of vulnerability apply to population groups defined by (1) age and developmental history; (2) personality characteristics; (3) family history of alcoholism; (4) female sex and pregnancy risk; and (5) history of alcohol dependence and recovery status. Developmental theory and research suggest that groups defined by younger age, incomplete neurocognitive development and a history of alcohol dependence may be particularly vulnerable because of the disproportionate harm they experience from alcohol and their increased susceptibility to alcohol marketing. Children may be more susceptible to media imagery because they do not have the ability to compensate for biases in advertising portrayals and glamorized media imagery. Young people and people with a history of alcohol dependence appear to be especially vulnerable to alcohol marketing, warranting the development of new content and exposure guidelines focused on protecting those groups to improve current self-regulation codes promoted by the alcohol industry. If adequate protections cannot be implemented through this mechanism, statutory regulations should be considered. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Marketing of alcohol to young people: a comparison of the UK and Poland.

    PubMed

    Cooke, Emma; Hastings, Gerard; Wheeler, Colin; Eadie, Douglas; Moskalewicz, Jacek; Dabrowska, Katarzyna

    2004-01-01

    This paper takes an international perspective on the marketing of alcohol to young people by examining case studies of the marketing of alcohol in the UK and Poland. It is suggested that marketing is a powerful mechanism for attracting young consumers. The alcohol industry is an innovative industry able to use a wide variety of marketing tools to achieve success in the market-place. It is important to recognise that the marketing activities of the industry are becoming increasingly transnational and that policy response has to be equally transnational. Copyright 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel

  8. Alcohol Consumption and Long-Term Labor Market Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Böckerman, Petri; Hyytinen, Ari; Maczulskij, Terhi

    2017-03-01

    This paper examines whether alcohol consumption is related to long-term labor market outcomes. We use twin data for Finnish men and women matched to register-based individual information on employment and earnings. The twin data allow us to account for the shared environmental and genetic factors. The quantity of alcohol consumption was measured by weekly average consumption using self-reported data from three surveys (1975, 1981 and 1990). The average of an individual's employment months and earnings were measured in adulthood over the period 1990-2009. The models that account for the shared environmental and genetic factors reveal that former drinkers and heavy drinkers both have almost 20% lower earnings compared with moderate drinkers. On average, former drinkers work annually approx. 1 month less over the 20-year observation period. These associations are robust to the use of covariates, such as education, pre-existing health endowment and smoking. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. A systematic review of the influence on alcohol use of community level availability and marketing of alcohol.

    PubMed

    Bryden, Anna; Roberts, Bayard; McKee, Martin; Petticrew, Mark

    2012-03-01

    Exposure to a high number of alcohol outlets and adverts within a community may lead to higher alcohol use by local residents. The aim of this systematic review was to explore evidence on the influence on alcohol use of community level availability and marketing of alcohol. 26 studies met the eligibility criteria. While the findings were not conclusive, there was some indication that higher outlet density and greater exposure to advertising in a local community may be associated with an increase in alcohol use, particularly among adolescents. This review disentangled the existing evidence on the overall relationships between availability, marketing and alcohol use at a community level. Further studies are required to better understand the influence of these factors on alcohol use. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Implicit Alcohol Associations, Especially Drinking Identity, Predict Drinking Over Time

    PubMed Central

    Lindgren, Kristen P.; Neighbors, Clayton; Teachman, Bethany A.; Baldwin, Scott A.; Norris, Jeanette; Kaysen, Debra; Gasser, Melissa L.; Wiers, Reinout W.

    2016-01-01

    Objective There is considerable excitement about implicit alcohol associations (IAAs) as predictors of college student hazardous drinking; however, few studies have investigated IAAs prospectively, included multiple assessments, or controlled for previous drinking. Doing so is essential to show their utility as a predictor and, ultimately, target for screening or intervention. Therefore, three IAAs (drinking identity, alcohol approach, alcohol excitement) were evaluated as prospective predictors of drinking in first- and second-year US undergraduates. Method A sample of 506 undergraduates completed eight online assessments of IAAs, explicit measures of the IAA constructs, and hazardous drinking (consumption, problems, and risk of alcohol use disorders) every three months over a 21-month period. Retention rates, ordered by follow-up points were 90%, 76%, 76%, 77%, 72%, 67%, and 66%, respectively. Fifty percent of participants were non-drinkers at baseline; 21% were above clinical cutoffs for hazardous drinking. Results Drinking identity and alcohol excitement associations predicted future alcohol consumption and problems after controlling for previous drinking and explicit measures; drinking identity also predicted future risk of alcohol use disorder. Relative to the other IAAs, drinking identity predicted alcohol consumption for the longest duration (i.e., 21 months). Alcohol approach associations rarely predicted variance in drinking. Conclusions IAAs vary in their utility as prospective predictors of college student hazardous drinking. Drinking identity and, to a lesser extent, alcohol excitement emerged as robust prospective predictors of hazardous drinking. Intervention and screening efforts could likely benefit from targeting those associations. PMID:27505215

  11. Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    19 B. GOLDMAN SACHS AND DEUTSCHE BANK “ECONOMIC DERIVATIVES” MARKET...into decision- making. B. GOLDMAN SACHS AND DEUTSCHE BANK “ECONOMIC DERIVATIVES” MARKET Another example of the relative performance of a prediction...market comes from the ―Economic Derivatives‖ market established by Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. This market is tied to macroeconomic outcomes

  12. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Janssen, Meriam M; Mathijssen, Jolanda J P; van Bon-Martens, Marja J H; van Oers, Hans A M; Garretsen, Henk F L

    2013-06-01

    Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour could not be assessed. More

  13. Multiple behavioural impulsivity tasks predict prospective alcohol involvement in adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Fernie, Gordon; Peeters, Margot; Gullo, Matthew J; Christiansen, Paul; Cole, Jon C; Sumnall, Harry; Field, Matt

    2013-01-01

    Aims We investigated reciprocal prospective relationships between multiple behavioural impulsivity tasks (assessing delay discounting, risk-taking and disinhibition) and alcohol involvement (consumption, drunkenness and problems) among adolescents. We hypothesized that performance on the tasks would predict subsequent alcohol involvement, and that alcohol involvement would lead to increases in behavioural impulsivity over time. Design Cross-lagged prospective design in which impulsivity and alcohol involvement were assessed five times over 2 years (once every 6 months, on average). Setting Classrooms in secondary schools in North West England. Participants Two hundred and eighty-seven adolescents (51.2% male) who were aged 12 or 13 years at study enrolment. Measurements Participants reported their alcohol involvement and completed computerized tasks of disinhibition, delay discounting and risk-taking at each assessment. Cross-sectional and prospective relationships between the variables of interest were investigated using cross-lagged analyses. Findings All behavioural impulsivity tasks predicted a composite index of alcohol involvement 6 months later (all Ps < 0.01), and these prospective relationships were reliable across the majority of time-points. Importantly, we did not observe the converse relationship across time: alcohol involvement did not predict performance on behavioural impulsivity tasks at any subsequent time point. Conclusions Several measures of impulsivity predict escalation in alcohol involvement in young adolescents, but alcohol use does not appear to alter impulsivity. PMID:23795646

  14. Using prediction markets to forecast research evaluations

    PubMed Central

    Munafo, Marcus R.; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Altmejd, Adam; Heikensten, Emma; Almenberg, Johan; Bird, Alexander; Chen, Yiling; Wilson, Brad; Johannesson, Magnus; Dreber, Anna

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the ‘wisdom of crowds’, and enable individuals to trade ‘bets’ on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014. PMID:26587243

  15. Using prediction markets to forecast research evaluations.

    PubMed

    Munafo, Marcus R; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Altmejd, Adam; Heikensten, Emma; Almenberg, Johan; Bird, Alexander; Chen, Yiling; Wilson, Brad; Johannesson, Magnus; Dreber, Anna

    2015-10-01

    The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the 'wisdom of crowds', and enable individuals to trade 'bets' on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014.

  16. Measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing on social networking sites: challenges and prospects.

    PubMed

    Jernigan, David H; Rushman, Anne E

    2014-02-01

    Youth exposure to alcohol marketing has been linked to increased alcohol consumption and problems. On relatively new and highly interactive social networking sites (SNS) that are popular with youth, tools for measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing in traditional media are inadequate. We critically review the existing policies of Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube designed to keep branded alcohol content away from underage youth. Looking at brand and user activity on Facebook for the 15 alcohol brands most popular among US youth, we found activity has grown dramatically in the past 3 years, and underage users may be accounting for some of this activity. Surveys of youth and adult participation in alcohol marketing on SNS will be needed to inform debate over these marketing practices.

  17. Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users. PMID:25591103

  18. Predictability and unpredictability in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipton-Lifschitz, Alexander

    Complicated transactions are a fact of life in today’s financial markets. An adequate description and understanding of these transactions requires a sophisticated mathematical apparatus. Although this apparatus can be borrowed in part from probability theory and the theory of partial differential equations, some of it has to be developed from scratch. In the present paper we discuss several important problems of mathematical finance and demonstrate how they can be treated in the rigorous framework of modern applied mathematics. In particular, we discuss the role of derivatives in solving the financial predictability problem.

  19. Alcohol-Outcome Expectancies: Predicting Interest in Violence and Erotica.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    George, William H.; Marlatt, G. Alan

    Although research has examined the content of alcohol-outcome expectancies and also the role of alcohol use in aggressive and sexual behaviors, few studies have linked the two lines of inquiry. To examine the efficacy of outcome expectancies for predicting actual behavior, 64 male social drinkers, aged 21 to 25 years, completed questionnaires and,…

  20. Alcohol-Outcome Expectancies: Predicting Interest in Violence and Erotica.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    George, William H.; Marlatt, G. Alan

    Although research has examined the content of alcohol-outcome expectancies and also the role of alcohol use in aggressive and sexual behaviors, few studies have linked the two lines of inquiry. To examine the efficacy of outcome expectancies for predicting actual behavior, 64 male social drinkers, aged 21 to 25 years, completed questionnaires and,…

  1. Current status of alcohol marketing policy--an urgent challenge for global governance.

    PubMed

    Casswell, Sally

    2012-03-01

    To review research literature and available information on the extent and impacts of marketing, current policy response and the interests engaged in the policy debate in order to inform recommendations for policy change on alcohol marketing. Relevant literature, including systematic reviews and publicly available information (websites and participant observation) is reviewed and synthesized. Alcohol marketing has expanded markedly in the past 50 years and, while there remains uncertainty about the impact across the population, there is now clear evidence of its impact on the consumption of young people. Few countries have effective policy in place restricting alcohol marketing, and there is a lack of an international response to alcohol marketing which crosses national boundaries. The protection of alcohol marketing has been a major focus for vested interest groups and this has affected governmental response at national and international levels. There has been a lack of non-governmental organization engagement. The policy response to tobacco marketing provides a clear contrast to that of alcohol marketing policy and provides a model for alcohol marketing policy. The global exposure of young people to alcohol marketing requires an urgent policy response. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provides an appropriate model for global governance to control alcohol marketing. There are extant examples of national level legislation achieving comprehensive bans with France's Loi Evin providing a feasible model. Resources from philanthropic organizations to allow non-governmental organization engagement are urgently required, as is engagement by the governmental sector independent of commercial influence. © 2012 The Author, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  2. Alcohol Marketing during the UEFA EURO 2016 Football Tournament: A Frequency Analysis.

    PubMed

    Purves, Richard I; Critchlow, Nathan; Stead, Martine; Adams, Jean; Brown, Katherine

    2017-06-29

    This study examined the frequency and nature of alcohol marketing references in broadcasts of the 2016 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) European Championships football tournament in the United Kingdom (UK). Eighteen matches from across the tournament were recorded in full as broadcast in the UK, including all four matches featuring the English national team and all seven featuring the French national team. All visual and verbal references to alcohol marketing were recorded using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. A total of 2213 alcohol marketing references were recorded, an average of 122.94 per broadcast and 0.65 per broadcast minute (0.52 per minute in-play and 0.80 per minute out-of-play). Almost all references were visual (97.5%), with 77.9% occurring around the pitch border. Almost all (90.6%) were indirect references to alcohol brands (e.g., references to well-known slogans), compared to only 9.4% direct references to brands (e.g., brand names). The frequency of references to alcohol marketing was high. Although the overall proportion of direct brand references was low, the high proportion of indirect references demonstrates that alcohol producers were able to circumvent the French national law governing alcohol marketing (the Loi Évin) using indirect "alibi marketing". To ensure the spirit of the Loi Évin regulations are achieved, stricter enforcement may be required to limit exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly for young people.

  3. Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cowgill, Bo; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric

    Since 2005, Google has conducted the largest corporate experiment with prediction markets we are aware of. In this paper, we illustrate how markets can be used to study how an organization processes information. We show that market participants are not typical of Google’s workforce, and that market participation and success is skewed towards Google’s engineering and quantitatively oriented employees.

  4. Framing a public health debate over alcohol advertising: the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth 2002-2008.

    PubMed

    Jernigan, David H

    2011-05-01

    The experiences of the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth from 2002 to 2008 in re-framing a major public health issue and influencing public policy offer lessons for other public health movements. The Center pioneered new ways to use commercial market research data in public health surveillance and public debate. Combining a steady stream of reports and peer-reviewed articles with state and federal organizing and media advocacy, the Center re-framed a policy debate over alcohol marketing and youth, enabling measurable progress.

  5. Childhood personality predicts alcohol abuse in young adults.

    PubMed

    Cloninger, C R; Sigvardsson, S; Bohman, M

    1988-08-01

    431 children (233 boys, 198 girls) born in Stockholm, Sweden, had a detailed behavioral assessment at 11 years of age, including a detailed interview with their school teachers, and at age 27 years were reevaluated to identify alcoholism or alcohol abuse. Specific predictions from a neurobiological learning theory about the role of heritable personality traits in susceptibility to alcohol abuse were tested in this prospective longitudinal study. Three dimensions of childhood personality variation were identified and rated without knowledge of adult outcome. These three dimensions (novelty-seeking, harm avoidance, and reward dependence) were largely uncorrelated with one another, and each was predictive of later alcohol abuse. Absolute deviations from the mean of each of the three personality dimensions were associated with an exponential increase in the risk of later alcohol abuse. High novelty-seeking and low harm avoidance were most strongly predictive of early-onset alcohol abuse. These two childhood variables alone distinguished boys who had nearly 20-fold differences in their risk of alcohol abuse: the risk of alcohol abuse varied from 4 to 75% depending on childhood personality.

  6. Industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing: a systematic review of content and exposure research.

    PubMed

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    With governments relying increasingly upon the alcohol industry's self-regulated marketing codes to restrict alcohol marketing activity, there is a need to summarize the findings of research relevant to alcohol marketing controls. This paper provides a systematic review of studies investigating the content of, and exposure to, alcohol marketing in relation to self-regulated guidelines. Peer-reviewed papers were identified through four literature search engines: SCOPUS, Web of Science, PubMed and PsychINFO. Non-peer-reviewed reports produced by public health agencies, alcohol research centers, non-governmental organizations and government research centers were also identified. Ninety-six publications met the inclusion criteria. Of the 19 studies evaluating a specific marketing code and 25 content analysis studies reviewed, all detected content that could be considered potentially harmful to children and adolescents, including themes that appeal strongly to young men. Of the 57 studies of alcohol advertising exposure, high levels of youth exposure and high awareness of alcohol advertising were found for television, radio, print, digital and outdoor advertisements. Youth exposure to alcohol advertising has increased over time, even as greater compliance with exposure thresholds has been documented. Violations of the content guidelines within self-regulated alcohol marketing codes are highly prevalent in certain media. Exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly among youth, is also prevalent. Taken together, the findings suggest that the current self-regulatory systems that govern alcohol marketing practices are not meeting their intended goal of protecting vulnerable populations. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Automatic avoidance tendencies for alcohol cues predict drinking after detoxification treatment in alcohol dependence.

    PubMed

    Field, Matt; Di Lemma, Lisa; Christiansen, Paul; Dickson, Joanne

    2017-03-01

    Alcohol dependence is characterized by conflict between approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol that operate in automatic and controlled processes. This article describes the first study to investigate the predictive validity of these motivational orientations for relapse to drinking after discharge from alcohol detoxification treatment in alcohol-dependent patients. One hundred twenty alcohol-dependent patients who were nearing the end of inpatient detoxification treatment completed measures of self-reported (Approach and Avoidance of Alcohol Questionnaire; AAAQ) and automatic (modified Stimulus-Response Compatibility task) approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol. Their drinking behavior was assessed via telephone follow-ups at 2, 4, and 6 months after discharge from treatment. Results indicated that, after controlling for the severity of alcohol dependence, strong automatic avoidance tendencies for alcohol cues were predictive of higher percentage of heavy drinking days (PHDD) at 4-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.07, 0.43]) and 6-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.01, 0.42]) follow-ups. We failed to replicate previous demonstrations of the predictive validity of approach subscales of the AAAQ for relapse to drinking, and there were no significant predictors of PHDD at 2-month follow-up. In conclusion, strong automatic avoidance tendencies predicted relapse to drinking after inpatient detoxification treatment, but automatic approach tendencies and self-reported approach and avoidance tendencies were not predictive in this study. Our results extend previous findings and help to resolve ambiguities with earlier studies that investigated the roles of automatic and controlled cognitive processes in recovery from alcohol dependence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Automatic Avoidance Tendencies for Alcohol Cues Predict Drinking After Detoxification Treatment in Alcohol Dependence

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol dependence is characterized by conflict between approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol that operate in automatic and controlled processes. This article describes the first study to investigate the predictive validity of these motivational orientations for relapse to drinking after discharge from alcohol detoxification treatment in alcohol-dependent patients. One hundred twenty alcohol-dependent patients who were nearing the end of inpatient detoxification treatment completed measures of self-reported (Approach and Avoidance of Alcohol Questionnaire; AAAQ) and automatic (modified Stimulus-Response Compatibility task) approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol. Their drinking behavior was assessed via telephone follow-ups at 2, 4, and 6 months after discharge from treatment. Results indicated that, after controlling for the severity of alcohol dependence, strong automatic avoidance tendencies for alcohol cues were predictive of higher percentage of heavy drinking days (PHDD) at 4-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.07, 0.43]) and 6-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.01, 0.42]) follow-ups. We failed to replicate previous demonstrations of the predictive validity of approach subscales of the AAAQ for relapse to drinking, and there were no significant predictors of PHDD at 2-month follow-up. In conclusion, strong automatic avoidance tendencies predicted relapse to drinking after inpatient detoxification treatment, but automatic approach tendencies and self-reported approach and avoidance tendencies were not predictive in this study. Our results extend previous findings and help to resolve ambiguities with earlier studies that investigated the roles of automatic and controlled cognitive processes in recovery from alcohol dependence. PMID:27935726

  9. Reinforcement of smoking and drinking: tobacco marketing strategies linked with alcohol in the United States.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Nan; Ling, Pamela M

    2011-10-01

    We investigated tobacco companies' knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Tobacco companies' numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use.

  10. Reinforcement of Smoking and Drinking: Tobacco Marketing Strategies Linked With Alcohol in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Nan

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. We investigated tobacco companies’ knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. Methods. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Conclusions. Tobacco companies’ numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use. PMID:21852637

  11. Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

    PubMed

    McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

    2016-03-01

    To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in

  12. Prediction of alcohol-related harm from controlled drinking strategies and alcohol consumption trajectories.

    PubMed

    Toumbourou, J W; Williams, I R; White, V M; Snow, P C; Munro, G D; Schofield, P E

    2004-04-01

    To establish predictors of age 21 alcohol-related harm from prior drinking patterns, current levels of alcohol consumption and use of controlled drinking strategies. One thousand, five hundred and ninety-six students recruited from an initial sample of 3300 during their final year of high school in 1993. Longitudinal follow-up across five waves of data collection. Post high school in Victoria, Australia. Self-administered surveys examining a range of health behaviours, including alcohol consumption patterns and related behaviour. Drinking behaviours at age 21 were found to be strongly predicted by drinking trajectories established through the transition from high school. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that alcohol-related harms at age 21 were reduced where current levels of alcohol use fell within limits recommended in Australian national guidelines. After controlling for this effect it was found that the range of strategies employed by participants to control alcohol use maintained a small protective influence. Post-high-school drinking trajectories continued to demonstrate a significant effect after controlling for current behaviours. revealed that over one quarter of males and females drank alcohol, but on a less-than-weekly basis. This pattern of alcohol use demonstrated considerable stability through the post-school transition and was associated with a low level of subsequent harm at age 21. Future research should investigate whether encouraging more Australian adolescents to drink alcohol on a less-than-weekly basis may be a practical intervention target for reducing alcohol-related harms.

  13. Alcohol Challenge Responses Predict Future Alcohol Use Disorder Symptoms: A 6-Year Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    King, Andrea C.; McNamara, Patrick J.; Hasin, Deborah S.; Cao, Dingcai

    2014-01-01

    Background Propensity for alcohol misuse may be linked to an individuals’ response to alcohol. This study examined the role of alcohol response phenotypes to future drinking problems. Methods One hundred four young heavy social drinkers participated in a within-subject, double-blind, placebo-controlled laboratory alcohol challenge study with 6-year follow-up. Participants were examined for subjective responses before and after receiving an intoxicating dose of alcohol (.8 g/kg) or a placebo beverage, given in random order. Follow-up was conducted in 5 waves over 6 years after the sessions to assess drinking behaviors and alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms. Retention was high with 98% (509 of 520) of possible follow-ups completed. Results Greater sensitivity to alcohol, in terms of stimulation and rewarding effects (like, want more) and lower sensitivity to alcohol sedation predicted greater number of AUD symptoms through 6 years of follow-up. Cluster analyses revealed that for half the sample, increasing levels of stimulation and liking were predictors of more AUD symptoms with the other half divided between those showing like and want more and want more alone as significant predictors. Conclusions The findings extend previous findings and offer new empirical insights into the propensity for excessive drinking and alcohol problems. Heightened alcohol stimulation and reward sensitivity robustly predicted more alcohol use disorder symptoms over time associated with greater binge-drinking frequency. These drinking problems were maintained and progressed as these participants were entering their third decade of life, a developmental interval when continued alcohol misuse becomes more deviant. PMID:24094754

  14. Individual differences in acute alcohol impairment of inhibitory control predict ad libitum alcohol consumption

    PubMed Central

    Weafer, Jessica

    2015-01-01

    Rationale Research has begun to examine how acute cognitive impairment from alcohol could contribute to alcohol abuse. Specifically, alcohol-induced impairment of inhibitory control could compromise the drinker’s ability to stop the self-administration of alcohol, increasing the risk of binge drinking. Objective The present study was designed to test this hypothesis by examining the relation between acute alcohol impairment of inhibitory control and alcohol consumption during a single drinking episode. Materials and methods Twenty-six healthy adults performed a cued go/no-go task that measured inhibitory control. The study tested the degree to which their inhibitory control was impaired by a moderate dose of alcohol (0.65 g/kg) versus a placebo and the extent to which individual differences in this impairment predicted levels of alcohol consumption as assessed by ad lib drinking in the laboratory. Results In accord with the hypothesis, greater impairment of inhibitory control from alcohol was associated with increased ad lib consumption. Conclusion Acute impairment of inhibitory control might be an important cognitive effect that contributes to abuse in addition to the positive rewarding effects of the drug. PMID:18758758

  15. When evidence is not enough: a case study on alcohol marketing legislation in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Vendrame, Alan

    2017-01-01

    This case study identifies the influence and mechanisms that the alcohol industry in Brazil has been able to bring to bear to maintain self-regulation in the marketing of beer and many wines set against a trend of increasing alcohol consumption in Brazil, particularly among young people and women. It identifies the forms of power and strategies used by the alcohol industry in Brazil that may be useful for other countries to consider in seeking to move from self-regulation to state regulation of alcohol marketing. A review was conducted of recent legal documents and court cases, as well as the activities of alcoholic beverage industries. Because of an exemption, Brazilian law had established that both beer and many wines are not alcoholic beverages for marketing purposes. These beverages are subjected to industry self-regulation codes. Research shows that beer and wine marketing often violates industry codes, with little or no enforcement of penalties for non-compliance. Attempts to include beer and wine in the legal definition of alcohol have been opposed by the alcohol industry, and the courts have delegated responsibility to the legislature. The recent legal activities surrounding alcohol sales during the 2014 World Cup games in Brazil provide evidence of the alcohol industry's influence on the legislative process. The alcohol industry in Brazil plays a significant role in the formulation of public policies on alcohol, especially regarding the regulation of marketing. This power is exercised by strong lobbying of government officials responsible for public policies. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  16. Alcohol Prevention on College Campuses: The Moderating Effect of the Alcohol Environment on the Effectiveness of Social Norms Marketing Campaigns*

    PubMed Central

    Scribner, Richard A.; Theall, Katherine P.; Mason, Karen; Simonsen, Neal; Schneider, Shari Kessel; Towvim, Laura Gomberg; DeJong, William

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Evaluations of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking have produced conflicting results. This study examines whether the effectiveness of such campaigns may be moderated by on-premise alcohol outlet density in the surrounding community. Method: Multilevel analyses were conducted of student survey responses (N = 19,838) from 32 U.S. colleges that took part in one of two 4-year randomized, controlled trials completed for the Social Norms Marketing Research Project (SNMRP). In the models, students by year were nested within treatment (n = 16) and control group (n = 16) campuses, which were characterized by the on-premise outlet density in their surrounding community. The moderating effect of outlet density was introduced into the models as an interaction between the treatment effect (i.e., the effect of the social norms marketing campaigns over time) and outlet density. The models were also stratified by campus alcohol outlet density (high vs. low) to examine the effect of the intervention in each type of setting. Results: There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect and on-premise alcohol outlet density for one of the drinking outcomes targeted by the SNMRP intervention, the number of drinks when partying, and marginal evidence of interaction effects for two other outcomes, maximum recent consumption and a composite drinking scale. In stratified analyses, an intervention effect was observed for three of the four outcomes among students from campuses with lower on-premise alcohol outlet density, whereas no intervention effect was observed among students from campuses with higher on-premise alcohol outlet density. Conclusions: The findings suggest that the campus alcohol environment moderates the effect of social norms marketing interventions. Social norms marketing intervention may be less effective on campuses with higher densities of on-sale alcohol outlets. PMID:21388596

  17. Alcohol prevention on college campuses: the moderating effect of the alcohol environment on the effectiveness of social norms marketing campaigns.

    PubMed

    Scribner, Richard A; Theall, Katherine P; Mason, Karen; Simonsen, Neal; Schneider, Shari Kessel; Towvim, Laura Gomberg; DeJong, William

    2011-03-01

    Evaluations of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking have produced conflicting results. This study examines whether the effectiveness of such campaigns may be moderated by on-premise alcohol outlet density in the surrounding community. Multilevel analyses were conducted of student survey responses (N= 19,838) from 32 U.S. colleges that took part in one of two 4-year randomized, controlled trials completed for the Social Norms Marketing Research Project (SNMRP). In the models, students by year were nested within treatment (n = 16) and control group (n = 16) campuses, which were characterized by the on-premise outlet density in their surrounding community. The moderating effect of outlet density was introduced into the models as an interaction between the treatment effect (i.e., the effect of the social norms marketing campaigns over time) and outlet density. The models were also stratified by campus alcohol outlet density (high vs. low) to examine the effect of the intervention in each type of setting. There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect and on-premise alcohol outlet density for one of the drinking outcomes targeted by the SNMRP intervention, the number of drinks when partying, and marginal evidence of interaction effects for two other outcomes, maximum recent consumption and a composite drinking scale. In stratified analyses, an intervention effect was observed for three of the four outcomes among students from campuses with lower on-premise alcohol outlet density, whereas no intervention effect was observed among students from campuses with higher on-premise alcohol outlet density. The findings suggest that the campus alcohol environment moderates the effect of social norms marketing interventions. Social norms marketing intervention may be less effective on campuses with higher densities of on-sale alcohol outlets.

  18. Alcohol marketing in the 21st century: new methods, old problems.

    PubMed

    Mart, Sarah M

    2011-01-01

    Marketing and advertising for alcoholic beverages is abundant throughout the United States and the rest of the world. Despite the fact that alcohol advertising is related to earlier initiation of drinking, higher rates of consumption, and positive expectancies among youth populations, alcohol companies continue to design new products and related campaigns with youth-friendly attributes. Alcopops and caffeinated alcoholic beverages are two particularly dangerous types of products, and new social networking technologies make direct promotion easy and voluminous. In order to stop the harm from these alcohol products and promotion, advocacy from the research community is imperative. Copyright © 2011 Informa Healthcare USA, Inc.

  19. Red flags on pinkwashed drinks: contradictions and dangers in marketing alcohol to prevent cancer.

    PubMed

    Mart, Sarah; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2015-10-01

    To document alcohol products and promotions that use the pink ribbon symbol and related marketing materials that associate alcohol brands with breast cancer charities, awareness and survivors. We conducted a basic Boolean public internet search for alcohol products with pink ribbon/breast cancer awareness marketing campaigns. There is strong and growing evidence of alcohol as a contributing cause of several types of cancer, including breast cancer. There is no U-shaped curve for cancer, and threshold of elevated relative risk is as low as one drink a day for certain cancers. We found 17 examples of alcohol product campaigns with websites, press releases and social media posts, along with news articles and blog posts from industry and non-profit organizations regarding alcohol products associated with breast cancer causes and charities. Various cancer charities have entered into alliances with sectors of the alcohol industry that raise funds for breast cancer research, treatment or prevention by promoting the purchase of certain alcoholic beverages. Some alcohol corporations use pink ribbons and other breast cancer-related images, messages and user-generated media to market a product that contributes to cancer disease and death. Therefore, cancer charities should adopt policies to separate them from alliances with the alcohol industry. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  20. Cigarette Smoking Predicts Differential Benefit from Naltrexone for Alcohol Dependence

    PubMed Central

    Fucito, Lisa M.; Park, Aesoon; Gulliver, Suzy Bird; Mattson, Margaret E.; Gueorguieva, Ralitza V.; O’Malley, Stephanie S.

    2012-01-01

    Background Identifying factors that modify responsiveness to pharmacotherapies for alcohol dependence is important for treatment planning. Cigarette smoking predicts more severe alcohol dependence and poorer treatment response in general. Nevertheless, there is limited research on cigarette smoking as a potential predictor of differential response to pharmacological treatment of alcoholism. Methods We examined the association between cigarette smoking and drinking outcomes in the COMBINE study, a randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled 16-week trial comparing combinations of medications (i.e., acamprosate and naltrexone) and behavioral interventions (i.e., medical management (MM), combined behavioral therapy (CBI)) in 1383 alcohol dependent individuals. Results Smokers (i.e., more than half the sample) significantly differed from nonsmokers on several demographic and drinking-related variables at baseline and generally had poorer treatment outcomes than nonsmokers. However, smokers who received naltrexone had better drinking outcomes than smokers who received placebo, whereas alcohol use among nonsmokers did not vary by naltrexone assignment. This pattern of findings occurred independent of whether patients received CBI or MM and remained after controlling for alcoholism typology and baseline demographic differences. Approximately 9% of smokers quit smoking and an additional 10% reduced their cigarette intake during treatment. Reductions in smoking did not vary by treatment assignment. Conclusions These results suggest that naltrexone may be particularly beneficial for improving alcohol use outcomes in alcohol dependent smokers. Trial Registration The COMBINE Study, NCT000626, http://www.cscc.unc.edu/combine/. PMID:22541040

  1. Simultaneous alcohol and cannabis expectancies predict simultaneous use.

    PubMed

    Barnwell, Sara Smucker; Earleywine, Mitch

    2006-10-11

    Simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis predicts increased negative consequences for users beyond individual or even concurrent use of the two drugs. Given the widespread use of the drugs and common simultaneous consumption, problems unique to simultaneous use may bear important implications for many substance users. Cognitive expectancies offer a template for future drug use behavior based on previous drug experiences, accurately predicting future use and problems. Studies reveal similar mechanisms underlying both alcohol and cannabis expectancies, but little research examines simultaneous expectancies for alcohol and cannabis use. Whereas research has demonstrated unique outcomes associated with simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use, this study hypothesized that unique cognitive expectancies may underlie simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use. This study examined a sample of 2600 (66% male; 34% female) Internet survey respondents solicited through advertisements with online cannabis-related organizations. The study employed known measures of drug use and expectancies, as well as a new measure of simultaneous drug use expectancies. Expectancies for simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis predicted simultaneous use over and above expectancies for each drug individually. Simultaneous expectancies may provide meaningful information not available with individual drug expectancies. These findings bear potential implications on the assessment and treatment of substance abuse problems, as well as researcher conceptualizations of drug expectancies. Policies directing the treatment of substance abuse and its funding ought to give unique consideration to simultaneous drug use and its cognitive underlying factors.

  2. The commercial use of digital media to market alcohol products: a narrative review.

    PubMed

    Lobstein, Tim; Landon, Jane; Thornton, Nicole; Jernigan, David

    2017-01-01

    The rising use of digital media in the last decade, including social networking media and downloadable applications, has created new opportunities for marketing a wide range of goods and services, including alcohol products. This paper aims to review the evidence in order to answer a series of policy-relevant questions: does alcohol marketing through digital media influence drinking behaviour or increases consumption; what methods of promotional marketing are used, and to what extent; and what is the evidence of marketing code violations and especially of marketing to children? A search of scientific, medical and social journals and authoritative grey literature identified 47 relevant papers (including 14 grey literature documents). The evidence indicated (i) that exposure to marketing through digital media was associated with higher levels of drinking behaviour; (ii) that the marketing activities make use of materials and approaches that are attractive to young people and encourage interactive engagement with branded messaging; and (iii) there is evidence that current alcohol marketing codes are being undermined by alcohol producers using digital media. There is evidence to support public health interventions to restrict the commercial promotion of alcohol in digital media, especially measures to protect children and youth. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  3. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. Method A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Results Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Conclusion Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or

  4. Learning Political Science with Prediction Markets: An Experimental Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellis, Cali Mortenson; Sami, Rahul

    2012-01-01

    Prediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class…

  5. Learning Political Science with Prediction Markets: An Experimental Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellis, Cali Mortenson; Sami, Rahul

    2012-01-01

    Prediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class…

  6. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism.

    PubMed

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefer, F; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-05-20

    We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value single-nucleotide length polymorphisms (SNPs) in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) were used to generate a Genetic Risk Prediction Score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating alcohol-dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress

  7. Alcohol-Related Facebook Activity Predicts Alcohol Use Patterns in College Students

    PubMed Central

    Marczinski, Cecile A.; Hertzenberg, Heather; Goddard, Perilou; Maloney, Sarah F.; Stamates, Amy L.; O’Connor, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if a brief 10-item alcohol-related Facebook® activity (ARFA) questionnaire would predict alcohol use patterns in college students (N = 146). During a single laboratory session, participants first privately logged on to their Facebook® profiles while they completed the ARFA measure, which queries past 30 day postings related to alcohol use and intoxication. Participants were then asked to complete five additional questionnaires: three measures of alcohol use (the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT], the Timeline Follow-Back [TLFB], and the Personal Drinking Habits Questionnaire [PDHQ]), the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC-SDS). Regression analyses revealed that total ARFA scores were significant predictors of recent drinking behaviors, as assessed by the AUDIT, TLFB, and PDHQ measures. Moreover, impulsivity (BIS-11) and social desirability (MC-SDS) did not predict recent drinking behaviors when ARFA total scores were included in the regressions. The findings suggest that social media activity measured via the ARFA scale may be useful as a research tool for identifying risky alcohol use. PMID:28138317

  8. Alcohol-Related Facebook Activity Predicts Alcohol Use Patterns in College Students.

    PubMed

    Marczinski, Cecile A; Hertzenberg, Heather; Goddard, Perilou; Maloney, Sarah F; Stamates, Amy L; O'Connor, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if a brief 10-item alcohol-related Facebook® activity (ARFA) questionnaire would predict alcohol use patterns in college students (N = 146). During a single laboratory session, participants first privately logged on to their Facebook® profiles while they completed the ARFA measure, which queries past 30 day postings related to alcohol use and intoxication. Participants were then asked to complete five additional questionnaires: three measures of alcohol use (the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT], the Timeline Follow-Back [TLFB], and the Personal Drinking Habits Questionnaire [PDHQ]), the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC-SDS). Regression analyses revealed that total ARFA scores were significant predictors of recent drinking behaviors, as assessed by the AUDIT, TLFB, and PDHQ measures. Moreover, impulsivity (BIS-11) and social desirability (MC-SDS) did not predict recent drinking behaviors when ARFA total scores were included in the regressions. The findings suggest that social media activity measured via the ARFA scale may be useful as a research tool for identifying risky alcohol use.

  9. Creating intoxigenic environments: marketing alcohol to young people in Aotearoa New Zealand.

    PubMed

    McCreanor, Tim; Barnes, Helen Moewaka; Kaiwai, Hector; Borell, Suaree; Gregory, Amanda

    2008-09-01

    Alcohol consumption among young people in New Zealand is on the rise. Given the broad array of acute and chronic harms that arise from this trend, it is a major cause for alarm and it is imperative that we improve our knowledge of key drivers of youth drinking. Changes wrought by the neoliberal political climate of deregulation that characterised the last two decades in many countries including Aotearoa (Aotearoa is a Maori name for New Zealand) New Zealand have transformed the availability of alcohol to young people. Commercial development of youth alcohol markets has seen the emergence of new environments, cultures and practices around drinking and intoxication but the ways in which these changes are interpreted and taken up are not well understood. This paper reports findings from a qualitative research project investigating the meaning-making practices of young people in New Zealand in response to alcohol marketing. Research data included group interviews with a range of Maori and Pakeha young people at three time periods. Thematic analyses of the youth data on usages of marketing materials indicate naturalisation of tropes of alcohol intoxication. We show how marketing is used and enjoyed in youth discourses creating and maintaining what we refer to as intoxigenic social environments. The implications are considered in light of the growing exposure of young people to alcohol marketing in a discussion of strategies to manage and mitigate its impacts on behaviour and consumption.

  10. Mood and implicit alcohol expectancy processes: predicting alcohol consumption in the laboratory.

    PubMed

    Wardell, Jeffrey D; Read, Jennifer P; Curtin, John J; Merrill, Jennifer E

    2012-01-01

    Implicit positive alcohol expectancy (PAE) processes are thought to respond phasically to external and internal stimuli-including mood states-and so they may exert powerful proximal influences over drinking behavior. Although social learning theory contends that mood states activate mood-congruent implicit PAEs, which in turn lead to alcohol use, there is a dearth of experimental research examining this mediation model relative to observable drinking. Moreover, an expectancy theory perspective might suggest that, rather than influencing PAEs directly, mood may moderate the association between PAEs and drinking. To test these models, this study examined the role of mood in the association between implicitly measured PAE processes (i.e., latency to endorse PAEs) and immediate alcohol consumption in the laboratory. Gender differences in these processes also were examined. College students (N = 146) were exposed to either a positive, negative, or neutral mood induction procedure, completed a computerized PAE reaction time (RT) task, and subsequently consumed alcohol ad libitum. The mood manipulation had no direct effects on drinking in the laboratory, making the mediation hypothesis irrelevant. Instead, gender and mood condition moderated the association between RT to endorse PAEs and drinking in the laboratory. For males, RT to tension reduction PAEs was a stronger predictor of volume of beer consumed and peak blood alcohol concentration in the context of general arousal (i.e., positive and negative mood) relative to neutral mood. RT to PAEs did not predict drinking in the laboratory for females. The results show that PAE processes are important determinants of immediate drinking behavior in men, suggesting that biased attention to mood-relevant PAEs-as indicated by longer RTs-predicts greater alcohol consumption in the appropriate mood context. The findings also highlight the need to consider gender differences in PAE processes. This study underscores the need for

  11. Use of prediction markets to forecast infectious disease activity.

    PubMed

    Polgreen, Philip M; Nelson, Forrest D; Neumann, George R

    2007-01-15

    Prediction markets have accurately forecasted the outcomes of a wide range of future events, including sales of computer printers, elections, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates. We propose that prediction markets may be useful for tracking and forecasting emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza, by aggregating expert opinion quickly, accurately, and inexpensively. Data from a pilot study in the state of Iowa suggest that these markets can accurately predict statewide seasonal influenza activity 2-4 weeks in advance by using clinical data volunteered from participating health care workers. Information revealed by prediction markets may help to inform treatment, prevention, and policy decisions. Also, these markets could help to refine existing surveillance systems.

  12. Examining How Media Literacy and Personality Factors Predict Skepticism Toward Alcohol Advertising.

    PubMed

    Austin, Erica Weintraub; Muldrow, Adrienne; Austin, Bruce W

    2016-05-01

    To examine the potential effectiveness of media literacy education in the context of well-established personality factors, a survey of 472 young adults, focused on the issue of alcohol marketing messages, examined how individual differences in personality associate with constructs representing aspects of media literacy. The results showed that need for cognition predicted social expectancies and wishful identification with media portrayals in alcohol advertising only through critical thinking about media sources and media content, which are foci of media literacy education. Need for affect did not associate with increased or diminished levels of critical thinking. Critical thinking about sources and messages affected skepticism, represented by expectancies through wishful identification, consistent with the message interpretation process model. The results support the view that critical thinking about media sources is an important precursor to critical thinking about media messages. The results also suggest that critical thinking about media (i.e., media literacy) reflects more than personality characteristics and can affect wishful identification with role models observed in media, which appears to be a key influence on decision making. This adds support to the view that media literacy education can improve decision making across personality types regarding alcohol use by decreasing the potential influence of alcohol marketing messages.

  13. How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Aim To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Methods Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990–2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second‐reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Results Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self‐regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non‐regulatory initiatives. Conclusions The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. PMID:26173765

  14. Alcohol Marketing during the UEFA EURO 2016 Football Tournament: A Frequency Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Critchlow, Nathan; Stead, Martine; Adams, Jean; Brown, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the frequency and nature of alcohol marketing references in broadcasts of the 2016 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) European Championships football tournament in the United Kingdom (UK). Eighteen matches from across the tournament were recorded in full as broadcast in the UK, including all four matches featuring the English national team and all seven featuring the French national team. All visual and verbal references to alcohol marketing were recorded using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. A total of 2213 alcohol marketing references were recorded, an average of 122.94 per broadcast and 0.65 per broadcast minute (0.52 per minute in-play and 0.80 per minute out-of-play). Almost all references were visual (97.5%), with 77.9% occurring around the pitch border. Almost all (90.6%) were indirect references to alcohol brands (e.g., references to well-known slogans), compared to only 9.4% direct references to brands (e.g., brand names). The frequency of references to alcohol marketing was high. Although the overall proportion of direct brand references was low, the high proportion of indirect references demonstrates that alcohol producers were able to circumvent the French national law governing alcohol marketing (the Loi Évin) using indirect “alibi marketing”. To ensure the spirit of the Loi Évin regulations are achieved, stricter enforcement may be required to limit exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly for young people. PMID:28661462

  15. How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Savell, Emily; Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B

    2016-01-01

    To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990-2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second-reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self-regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non-regulatory initiatives. The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. © 2015 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of

  16. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use from Preferential Music Consumption

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oberle, Crystal D.; Garcia, Javier A.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that…

  17. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use from Preferential Music Consumption

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oberle, Crystal D.; Garcia, Javier A.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that…

  18. Youth exposure to alcohol advertising on television--25 markets, United States, 2010.

    PubMed

    2013-11-08

    Excessive alcohol consumption accounted for an estimated 4,700 deaths and 280,000 years of potential life lost among youths aged <21 years each year during 2001-2005. Exposure to alcohol marketing increases the likelihood to varying degrees that youths will initiate drinking and drink at higher levels. By 2003, the alcohol industry voluntarily agreed not to advertise on television programs where >30% of the audience is reasonably expected to be aged <21 years. However, the National Research Council/Institute of Medicine (NRC/IOM) proposed in 2003 that "the industry standard should move toward a 15% threshold for television advertising". Because local media markets might have different age distributions, the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, evaluated the proportion of advertisements that appeared on television programs in 25 local television markets* and resulting youth exposure that exceeded the industry standard (i.e., >30% aged 2-20 years) or the proposed NRC/IOM standard (i.e., >15% aged 12-20 years). Among national television programs with alcohol advertising, placements were assessed for the 10 programs with the largest number of youth viewers within each of four program categories: network sports, network nonsports, cable sports, and cable nonsports (40 total). Of the 196,494 alcohol advertisements that aired on television programs with the largest number of youth viewers in these local markets, placement of 23.7% exceeded the industry threshold and 35.4% exceeded the NRC/IOM threshold. These results indicate that the alcohol industry's self-regulation of its advertising could be improved, and youth exposure to alcohol advertising could be further reduced by adopting and complying with the NRC/IOM standard. In addition, continued public health surveillance would allow for sustained assessment of youth exposure to alcohol advertising and inform future interventions.

  19. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism

    PubMed Central

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-01-01

    We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress-reactive animal model cross-validation. We also tested this small panel of genes in two other independent test cohorts from the United States, one with alcohol dependence (P=0.00012) and one with alcohol abuse (a less severe form of alcoholism; P=0.0094). SNCA by itself was able to separate alcoholics from controls in the alcohol-dependent cohort (P=0.000013) and the alcohol abuse

  20. Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2014-01-01

    Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

  1. Scaling and Predictability in Stock Markets: A Comparative Study

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2014-01-01

    Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling. PMID:24632944

  2. Health, alcohol and EU law: understanding the impact of European single market law on alcohol policies.

    PubMed

    Baumberg, Ben; Anderson, Peter

    2008-08-01

    Many professionals in the alcohol field see the role of the the European Court of Justice (ECJ) as negative for health. This review examines ECJ and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) case law in the context of two broader debates: firstly the extension of European Union (EU) law into alcohol policy (the 'juridification' of alcohol policy), and secondly the extent to which alcohol policy is an example of the dominance of 'negative integration' (the removal of trade-distorting policy) over 'positive integration' (the creation of European alcohol policies). A comprehensive review of all ECJ/EFTA Court cases on alcohol, with interpretation aided by a secondary review on alcohol and EU law and the broader health and trade field. From looking at taxation, minimum pricing, advertising and monopoly policies, the extension of the scope of the these courts over alcohol policy is unquestionable. However, the ECJ and EFTA Court have been prepared to prioritize health over trade concerns when considering alcohol policies, providing certain conditions have been met. While a partial juridification of alcohol policy has led to the negative integration of alcohol policies, this effect is not as strong as sometimes thought; EU law is more health friendly than it is perceived to be, and its impact on levels of alcohol-related harm appears low. Nevertheless, lessons emerge for policymakers concerned about the legality of alcohol policies under EU law. More generally, those concerned with alcohol and health should pay close attention to developments in EU law given their importance for public health policy on alcohol.

  3. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  4. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  5. Marketing alcohol to young people: implications for industry regulation and research policy.

    PubMed

    Jackson, M C; Hastings, G; Wheeler, C; Eadie, D; Mackintosh, A M

    2000-12-01

    This paper focuses on the marketing of alcohol to young people in the United Kingdom, but the lessons that emerge have international significance. Alcohol is a global enterprise and recent consolidation means that it is controlled by a decreasing number of expanding multi-nationals. Alcohol companies are able to allocate significant resources to researching consumer preferences, developing new products and promoting them on an international level. Recent years have seen a growth in the value that youth culture attaches to brand labels and symbols and a move away from the healthy-living ethos. The alcohol industry's response to these trends has been to design alcoholic beverages that appeal to young people, using well-informed and precisely targeted marketing strategies. This has led to growing concerns about the implications for public health and a demand for tighter controls to regulate alcohol marketing practices. In the United Kingdom, controls on alcohol are piecemeal and reactive and the current system of voluntary regulation appears ineffective. This paper argues for more research to establish current industry practice and inform the development of a comprehensive regulatory structure and system of monitoring.

  6. The unique contribution of attitudes toward non-alcoholic drinks to the prediction of adolescents' and young adults' alcohol consumption.

    PubMed

    Roek, Marion A E; Spijkerman, Renske; Poelen, Evelien A P; Lemmers, Lex; Engels, Rutger C M E

    2010-06-01

    Attitudes toward alternative behaviors, such as drinking soda instead of alcohol, might contribute to the prediction of young people's drinking behavior. The current study explored the associations between late adolescents' and young adults' attitudes toward alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks and their alcohol consumption, and whether these associations were moderated by participants' sex, age and education level. Cross-sectional data were collected among 1012 15 to 25-year-olds. Participants completed an online questionnaire on attitudes toward alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks, binge drinking and monthly alcohol consumption. Data were analyzed by employing structural equation modeling in Mplus. After controlling for the shared variance in both attitudes, attitudes toward alcoholic drinks were positively related and attitudes toward non-alcoholic drinks were negatively related to participants' monthly alcohol use and binge drinking. Relations between attitudes towards alcoholic drinks and monthly alcohol consumption were stronger for boys than for girls and stronger for participants with intermediate education background. Relations between both attitudes and binge drinking were strongest for high educated participants. According to our data, non-alcohol attitudes provide a unique contribution to the prediction of alcohol use.

  7. Point-of-purchase alcohol marketing and promotion by store type--United States, 2000-2001.

    PubMed

    2003-04-11

    Alcohol consumption is the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States, accounting for approximately 100,000 deaths annually. Efforts to reduce the adverse health and social consequences from alcohol use include policies to restrict access to alcohol among underaged persons (i.e., persons aged <21 years) and to reduce alcohol-impaired driving among persons of all ages. Recent studies have focused on alcohol marketing as a potentially important contributor to alcohol consumption, particularly among underage drinkers. Point-of-purchase (POP) (i.e., on-site) marketing, including alcohol advertising and placement, can increase alcohol sales and consumption substantially, thereby increasing the risk for various alcohol-related health outcomes, including alcohol-impaired driving and interpersonal violence. To assess the type and frequency of POP alcohol marketing, researchers with the ImpacTeen Project collected and analyzed store observation data during 2000-2001 from 3,961 alcohol retailers in 329 communities throughout the United States. This report summarizes the results of the study, which indicate that POP alcohol marketing is extensive in certain store types frequented by teenagers and young adults. Public health agencies and policy makers should work with liquor control boards to reduce POP marketing that could promote risky or underage drinking.

  8. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes.

    PubMed

    Westgate, Erin C; Wormington, Stephanie V; Oleson, Kathryn C; Lindgren, Kristen P

    2017-03-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive-albeit less important-behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles-non-procrastinators, academic productive procrastinators, non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators, and classic procrastinators. Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps < .01). Non-procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts.

  9. Alcohol marketing in the Americas and Spain during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament.

    PubMed

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Feulner, Melissa; Vendrame, Alan; Monteiro, Maristela

    2017-01-01

    To identify the nature of visual alcohol references in alcohol advertisements during televised broadcasts of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament matches and to evaluate cross-national differences according to alcohol marketing policy restrictiveness. Content analysis using the Delphi method and identification of in-game sponsorships. Television broadcasts of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, Mexico, Spain and the United States. Eighty-seven alcohol advertisements; 20 matches. Quantitative rating scales, combined with the Delphi rating technique, were used to determine compliance of the alcohol advertisements with the International Alliance for Responsible Drinking's (IARD) Guiding Principles. Recordings of five matches from four countries were also used to identify the number of in- and out-of-game alcohol brand appearances. A total of 86.2% of all unique alcohol advertisements contained at least one violation of IARD's Guiding Principles, with violation rates ranging from 72.7% (Mexico) to 100% (Brazil). Countries with the least restrictive marketing policies had a higher prevalence of violations in guidelines designed to protect minors. There were 2.76 in-game alcohol brand appearances and 0.83 out-of-game alcohol brand appearances per minute. Brand appearances did not differ across countries or according to a country's marketing policy restrictiveness. Self-regulation and statutory policies were ineffective at limiting alcohol advertising during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament television broadcasts. Most advertisements contained content that violated the self-regulation codes, and there were high levels of within-broadcast brand appearances. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  10. The relationship between labour market categories and alcohol use trajectories in midlife

    PubMed Central

    Colell, Esther; Bell, Steven; Britton, Annie

    2014-01-01

    Background and aims Studies on the role of labour market position and change in alcohol use during midlife are scarce and their results are inconclusive mainly due to their failure to define comprehensive and distinct labour market groups and the short periods of time studied. In this study we used different activity categories for men and women to examine alcohol use trajectories in midlife covering a period of 17 years. Methods Using data from four sweeps of the National Child Development Study covering ages 33–50 (N=9960), we used multilevel growth models to study the association between labour market categories and longitudinal changes in weekly units of alcohol consumed. Results In the reference group of full-time employed men alcohol trajectory decreased over the follow-up period (β=−0.14; 95% CI −0.18 to −0.11) while in the reference group of employed women it increased (β=0.06; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.08). Men and women who were ‘mainly sick’ had significantly steeper declines in their alcohol consumption trajectory. Women who became employed after being homemakers had the steepest increase in alcohol use (β=0.05; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09). Conclusions Being employed is a strong determinant of alcohol use for men and women in midlife, making the workplace a good target for health promotion programmes and policies aimed at reducing alcohol use. Caution is needed when interpreting the health effects of alcohol consumption as low alcohol users may have previously been heavy drinkers. PMID:25073593

  11. The relationship between labour market categories and alcohol use trajectories in midlife.

    PubMed

    Colell, Esther; Bell, Steven; Britton, Annie

    2014-11-01

    Studies on the role of labour market position and change in alcohol use during midlife are scarce and their results are inconclusive mainly due to their failure to define comprehensive and distinct labour market groups and the short periods of time studied. In this study we used different activity categories for men and women to examine alcohol use trajectories in midlife covering a period of 17 years. Using data from four sweeps of the National Child Development Study covering ages 33-50 (N=9960), we used multilevel growth models to study the association between labour market categories and longitudinal changes in weekly units of alcohol consumed. In the reference group of full-time employed men alcohol trajectory decreased over the follow-up period (β=-0.14; 95% CI -0.18 to -0.11) while in the reference group of employed women it increased (β=0.06; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.08). Men and women who were 'mainly sick' had significantly steeper declines in their alcohol consumption trajectory. Women who became employed after being homemakers had the steepest increase in alcohol use (β=0.05; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09). Being employed is a strong determinant of alcohol use for men and women in midlife, making the workplace a good target for health promotion programmes and policies aimed at reducing alcohol use. Caution is needed when interpreting the health effects of alcohol consumption as low alcohol users may have previously been heavy drinkers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. Reducing alcohol consumption among university students: recruitment and program design strategies based on Social Marketing Theory.

    PubMed

    Black, D R; Smith, M A

    1994-09-01

    Recruitment of program participants and development of appealing comprehensive alcohol abuse prevention programs is an exigent priority for university campuses due to the serious physical and emotional consequences related to alcohol consumption. A sample of 67 students from a large midwestern university completed a survey based on Social Marketing Theory (SMT) which was developed to improve recruitment and enhance the design of comprehensive alcohol abuse prevention programs. The results indicate that recruitment may be optimized by providing a flexible, convenient, low-cost program that encourages friends' participation, communicates alcohol-related risks and offers university credit or refund as participation incentives. The design of alcohol abuse prevention programs may be enhanced by emphasizing the positive outcomes of reducing alcohol consumption, improving the quality and quantity of alternatives to the social atmosphere connected with drinking, and soliciting respected opinion leaders (physicians and parents) to communicate alcohol reduction messages. This project is a first initiative to 'fill the gap' in the social marketing research literature by providing formative information pertinent to recruitment and design of alcohol reduction programs specifically for college students.

  13. A pre-marketing ALT signal predicts post-marketing liver safety.

    PubMed

    Moylan, Cynthia A; Suzuki, Ayako; Papay, Julie I; Yuen, Nancy A; Ames, Michael; Hunt, Christine M

    2012-08-01

    Drug induced liver injury during drug development is evidenced by a higher incidence of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevations in treated versus placebo populations and termed an "ALT signal". We sought to quantify whether an ALT signal in pre-marketing clinical trials predicted post-marketing hepatotoxicity. Incidence of ALT elevations (ALT ≥ 3 times upper limits normal [× ULN]) for drug and placebo of new chemical entities and approved drugs associated with hepatotoxicity was calculated using the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website. Post-marketing liver safety events were identified using the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS). The association of FDA AERS signal score (EB05 ≥ 2) and excess risk of pre-marketing ALT elevation (difference in incidence of ALT ≥ 3× ULN in treated versus placebo) was examined. An ALT signal of ≥ 1.2% was significantly associated with a post-marketing liver safety signal (p ≤ 0.013) and a 71.4% positive predictive value. An absent ALT signal was associated with a high likelihood of post-marketing liver safety; negative predictive value of 89.7%. Daily drug dose information improved the prediction of post-marketing liver safety. A cut-off of 1.2% increase in ALT ≥ 3× ULN in treated versus placebo groups provides an easily calculated method for predicting post-marketing liver safety.

  14. Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eom, Cheoljun; Choi, Sunghoon; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

    2008-07-01

    We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.

  15. Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

    PubMed

    Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

    2015-12-15

    Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

  16. Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

    PubMed Central

    Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus

    2015-01-01

    Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

  17. Mood and Implicit Alcohol Expectancy Processes: Predicting Alcohol Consumption in the Laboratory

    PubMed Central

    Wardell, Jeffrey D.; Read, Jennifer P.; Curtin, John J.; Merrill, Jennifer E.

    2011-01-01

    Background Implicit positive alcohol expectancy (PAEs) processes are thought to respond phasically to external and internal stimuli – including mood states – and so they may exert powerful proximal influences over drinking behavior. Although social learning theory contends that mood states activate mood-congruent implicit PAEs, which in turn lead to alcohol use, there is a dearth of experimental research examining this mediation model relative to observable drinking. Moreover, an expectancy theory perspective might suggest that, rather than influencing PAEs directly, mood may moderate the association between PAEs and drinking. To test these models, the present study examined the role of mood in the association between implicitly measured PAE processes (i.e., latency to endorse PAEs) and immediate alcohol consumption in the laboratory. Gender differences in these processes also were examined. Method College students (N=146) were exposed to either a positive, negative, or neutral mood induction procedure, completed a computerized PAE reaction time (RT) task, and subsequently consumed alcohol ad libitum. Results The mood manipulation had no direct effects on drinking in the lab, making the mediation hypothesis irrelevant. Instead, gender and mood condition moderated the association between RT to endorse PAEs and drinking in the lab. For males, RT to tension reduction PAEs was a stronger predictor of volume of beer consumed and peak BAC in the context of general arousal (i.e., positive and negative mood) relative to neutral mood. RT to PAEs did not predict drinking in the lab for females. Conclusions The results show that PAE processes are important determinants of immediate drinking behavior in men, suggesting that biased attention to mood-relevant PAEs – as indicated by longer RTs – predicts greater alcohol consumption in the appropriate mood context. The findings also highlight the need to consider gender differences in PAE processes. This study underscores

  18. Predicting Alcohol Misuse Among College Students in the US and South Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Sang-Yeon; Ahn, Seokhoon; Lim, Tae-Seop

    2015-01-01

    This study examines contributing factors of alcohol misuse among college students in South Korea and the U.S. Exploratory factor analyses (EFA) on measurements of alcohol expectancy, alcohol efficacy, and accommodation resulted in social and personal causes for alcohol misuse. Social causes alone predicted alcohol misuse for both countries. Social factors constituted a much stronger predictor of alcohol misuse among South Korean students than among American students. Practical implications for effective deterrence of student binge drinking are discussed.

  19. One Size (Never) Fits All: Segment Differences Observed Following a School-Based Alcohol Social Marketing Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

    2015-01-01

    Background: According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. Methods: A sample of 371 year 10 students…

  20. One Size (Never) Fits All: Segment Differences Observed Following a School-Based Alcohol Social Marketing Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

    2015-01-01

    Background: According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. Methods: A sample of 371 year 10 students…

  1. Predicting Heroin and Alcohol Usage Among Young Puerto Ricans.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuttall, Ronald L.; Nuttall, Ena Vazquez

    Using 1968 data collected from junior and senior high school students in Bayamon, Puerto Rico, substance usage patterns for heroin and alcohol were predicted for 1975-6. A sample of 1,000 of the initial 5,000 students were selected for re-interview; half were selected to be at high risk of substance abuse and half were selected randomly. Some 657…

  2. Alcohol-related incident guardianship and undergraduate college parties: enhancing the social norms marketing approach.

    PubMed

    Gilbertson, Troy A

    2006-01-01

    This randomized experiment examines the effects of contextual information on undergraduate college student's levels of alcohol-related incident guardianship at college parties. The research is conceptualized using routine activities theory and the theory of planned behavior. The experiment examines attitudinal variations about heavy drinking differentiated by sex, athletic status, and location of the drinking event. The sex and athletic status variables produce statistically effects on the dependent variables, while location of the drinking event is not significant. The article concludes by discussing the importance of context as it pertains to the social norms marketing strategy utilized in much college alcohol programming, and suggests a more directed marketing approach.

  3. Internet filters and entry pages do not protect children from online alcohol marketing.

    PubMed

    Jones, Sandra C; Thom, Jeffrey A; Davoren, Sondra; Barrie, Lance

    2014-02-01

    We review programs and policies to prevent children from accessing alcohol marketing online. To update the literature, we present our recent studies that assess (i) in-built barriers to underage access to alcohol brand websites and (ii) commercial internet filters. Alcohol websites typically had poor filter systems for preventing entry of underage persons; only half of the sites required the user to provide a date of birth, and none had any means of preventing users from trying again. Even the most effective commercial internet filters allowed access to one-third of the sites we examined.

  4. Alcohol marketing and young people's drinking: a review of the research.

    PubMed

    Hastings, Gerard; Anderson, Susan; Cooke, Emma; Gordon, Ross

    2005-09-01

    The influence of alcohol advertising on young people continues to be the subject of much debate. This paper presents a review of the literature showing that, while many econometric studies suggest little effect, more focused consumer studies, especially recent ones with sophisticated designs, do show clear links between advertising and behaviour. Furthermore, these effects have to be viewed in combination with the possible impact of other marketing activities such as price promotions, distribution, point of sale activity and new product development. Here, the evidence base is less well developed, but there are indications of effects. It must be acknowledged that categorical statements of cause and effect are always difficult in the social sciences; marketing is a complex phenomenon involving the active participation of consumers as well as marketers and more research is needed on its cumulative impact. Nonetheless, the literature presents an increasingly compelling picture that alcohol marketing is having an effect on young people's drinking.

  5. Marketing time predicts naturalization of horticultural plants.

    PubMed

    Pemberton, Robert W; Liu, Hong

    2009-01-01

    Horticulture is an important source of naturalized plants, but our knowledge about naturalization frequencies and potential patterns of naturalization in horticultural plants is limited. We analyzed a unique set of data derived from the detailed sales catalogs (1887-1930) of the most important early Florida, USA, plant nursery (Royal Palm Nursery) to detect naturalization patterns of these horticultural plants in the state. Of the 1903 nonnative species sold by the nursery, 15% naturalized. The probability of plants becoming naturalized increases significantly with the number of years the plants were marketed. Plants that became invasive and naturalized were sold for an average of 19.6 and 14.8 years, respectively, compared to 6.8 years for non-naturalized plants, and the naturalization of plants sold for 30 years or more is 70%. Unexpectedly, plants that were sold earlier were less likely to naturalize than those sold later. The nursery's inexperience, which caused them to grow and market many plants unsuited to Florida during their early period, may account for this pattern. Plants with pantropical distributions and those native to both Africa and Asia were more likely to naturalize (42%), than were plants native to other smaller regions, suggesting that plants with large native ranges were more likely to naturalize. Naturalization percentages also differed according to plant life form, with the most naturalization occurring in aquatic herbs (36.8%) and vines (30.8%). Plants belonging to the families Araceae, Apocynaceae, Convolvulaceae, Moraceae, Oleaceae, and Verbenaceae had higher than expected naturalization. Information theoretic model selection indicated that the number of years a plant was sold, alone or together with the first year a plant was sold, was the strongest predictor of naturalization. Because continued importation and marketing of nonnative horticultural plants will lead to additional plant naturalization and invasion, a comprehensive approach

  6. Underage access to online alcohol marketing content: a YouTube case study.

    PubMed

    Barry, Adam E; Johnson, Emily; Rabre, Alexander; Darville, Gabrielle; Donovan, Kristin M; Efunbumi, Orisatalabi

    2015-01-01

    With the proliferation of the Internet and online social media use, alcohol advertisers are now marketing their products through social media sites such as YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. As a result, new recommendations have been made by the Federal Trade Commission concerning the self-regulation of digital marketing strategies, including content management on social and digital media sites. The current study sought to determine whether alcohol companies were implementing the self-imposed mandates that they have developed for online marketing. Specifically, we examined whether alcohol companies were implementing effective strategies that would prevent persons under the minimum legal drinking age in the USA from accessing their content on YouTube. We assessed 16 alcohol brands (beer and liquor) associated with the highest prevalence of past 30 day underage alcohol consumption in the USA. Fictitious YouTube user profiles were created and assigned the ages of 14, 17 and 19. These profiles then attempted to access and view the brewer-sponsored YouTube channels for each of the 16 selected brands. Every underage profile, regardless of age, was able to successfully subscribe to each of the 16 (100%) official YouTube channels. On average, two-thirds of the brands' channels were successfully viewed (66.67%). Alcohol industry provided online marketing content is predominantly accessible to underage adolescents. Thus, brewers are not following some of the self-developed and self-imposed mandates for online advertising by failing to implement effective age-restriction measures (i.e. age gates). © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  7. Alcohol marketing, drunkenness, and problem drinking among Zambian youth: findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey.

    PubMed

    Swahn, Monica H; Ali, Bina; Palmier, Jane B; Sikazwe, George; Mayeya, John

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Zambia (2004) of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (N = 2257). Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09-2.02) and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06-1.87) among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  8. Alcohol Marketing, Drunkenness, and Problem Drinking among Zambian Youth: Findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey

    PubMed Central

    Swahn, Monica H.; Ali, Bina; Palmier, Jane B.; Sikazwe, George; Mayeya, John

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Zambia (2004) of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (N = 2257). Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09–2.02) and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06–1.87) among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth. PMID:21647354

  9. Alcohol Marketing on Twitter and Instagram: Evidence of Directly Advertising to Youth/Adolescents.

    PubMed

    Barry, Adam E; Bates, Austin M; Olusanya, Olufunto; Vinal, Cystal E; Martin, Emily; Peoples, Janiene E; Jackson, Zachary A; Billinger, Shanaisa A; Yusuf, Aishatu; Cauley, Daunte A; Montano, Javier R

    2016-07-01

    Assess whether alcohol companies restrict youth/adolescent access, interaction, and exposure to their marketing on Twitter and Instagram. Employed five fictitious male and female Twitter (n = 10) and Instagram (n = 10) user profiles aged 13, 15, 17, 19 and/or 21. Using cellular smartphones, we determined whether profiles could (a) interact with advertising content-e.g. retweet, view video or picture content, comment, share URL; and/or (b) follow and directly receive advertising material updates from the official Instagram and Twitter pages of 22 alcohol brands for 30 days. All user profiles could fully access, view, and interact with alcohol industry content posted on Instagram and Twitter. Twitter's age-gate, which restricts access for those under 21, successfully prevented underage profiles from following and subsequently receiving promotional material/updates. The two 21+ profiles collectively received 1836 alcohol-related tweets within 30 days. All Instagram profiles, however, were able to follow all alcohol brand pages and received an average of 362 advertisements within 30 days. The quantity of promotional updates increased throughout the week, reaching their peak on Thursday and Friday. Representatives/controllers of alcohol brand Instagram pages would respond directly to our underage user's comments. The alcohol industry is in violation of their proposed self-regulation guidelines for digital marketing communications on Instagram. While Twitter's age-gate effectively blocked direct to phone updates, unhindered access to post was possible. Everyday our fictitious profiles, even those as young as 13, were bombarded with alcohol industry messages and promotional material directly to their smartphones. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  10. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use From Preferential Music Consumption.

    PubMed

    Oberle, Crystal D; Garcia, Javier A

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that listening to conventional music (pop, country, and religious genres) was negatively correlated with cigarette smoking (p=.001) and marijuana use (p<.001). Additionally, listening to energetic music (rap or hip-hop and soul or funk genres) was positively correlated with marijuana use (p=.004). The only significant predictor of alcohol use was country music, with which it was positively correlated (p=.04). This research suggests an especially harmful influence of energetic music on marijuana use. © The Author(s) 2015.

  11. Social Marketing Strategies for Campus Prevention of Alcohol and Other Drug Problems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zimmerman, Robert

    This document sets out one segment of a comprehensive approach intended to assist institutions of higher education in developing and carrying out alcohol abuse and other drug prevention programs. Social marketing is described as a tool of environmental management, that seeks to produce a specified behavior in a target audience. Intended for a…

  12. Exposure to Online Alcohol Marketing and Adolescents' Drinking: A Cross-sectional Study in Four European Countries.

    PubMed

    de Bruijn, Avalon; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Bujalski, Michal; Gosselt, Jordy; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Wohtge, Jördis; de Leeuw, Rebecca

    2016-09-01

    The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times; even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in four European countries. A total of 9038 students with a mean age of 14.05 (SD 0.82) participated in a school-based survey in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. Logistic regression analyses of cross-sectional cross-country survey data were undertaken. Exposure to online alcohol marketing, televised alcohol advertising and ownership of alcohol-branded items was estimated to be controlled for relevant confounders. Onset of drinking and binge drinking in the past 30 days were included in the study as outcome variables. Adjusted for relevant confounders, higher exposure to (online) alcohol marketing exposure was found to be related to the odds of starting to drink (p < 0.001) and the odds of binge drinking in the past 30 days (p < 0.001). This effect was found to be consistent in all four countries. Active engagement with online alcohol marketing was found to interact more strongly with drinking outcomes than passive exposure to online alcohol marketing. Youngsters in the four European countries report frequent exposure to online alcohol marketing. The association between this exposure and adolescents' drinking was robust and seems consistent across national contexts. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  13. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models

    PubMed Central

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance. PMID:26926235

  14. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    PubMed

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  15. Predicting Heavy Alcohol Use in College Students: Interactions Among Socialization of Coping, Alcohol Use Onset, and Physiological Reactivity.

    PubMed

    Stanger, Sarah; Abaied, Jamie; Wagner, Caitlin

    2016-05-01

    Early age at onset of alcohol use is a risk factor for later heavy alcohol use, but some individuals are buffered from this risk. To better understand this process, this study investigated the interactive contributions of parental coping suggestions, skin conductance level reactivity (SCLR), and age at onset of alcohol use on heavy alcohol use in college students. College students (N = 146, 77% female) reported their age at onset of alcohol use, frequency of recent heavy alcohol use, and their parents' coping suggestions; SCLR was monitored as participants completed a laboratory challenge task. In addition, students' parents (N = 73, 77% mothers) reported on their coping suggestions. Results indicated that in the presence of physiological risk only (blunted SCLR, late age at onset of alcohol use), higher frequencies of engagement and disengagement parental coping suggestions were protective against heavy alcohol use in college students. However, if both risk factors were present (blunted SCLR, early age at onset of alcohol use), more engagement suggestions predicted more heavy alcohol use among college students. These findings extend previous findings on the impact of parenting on heavy alcohol use among college students and provide novel evidence for the moderating role of sympathetic stress reactivity.

  16. Deficits in Emotion-Regulation Skills Predict Alcohol Use During and After Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Alcohol Dependence

    PubMed Central

    Berking, Matthias; Margraf, Matthias; Ebert, David; Wupperman, Peggilee; Hofmann, Stefan G.; Junghanns, Klaus

    2011-01-01

    Objective As emotion regulation is widely considered to be a primary motive in the misuse of alcohol, the aim of the study was to investigate whether deficits in adaptive emotion-regulation skills maintain alcohol dependence (AD). Method A prospective study investigated whether emotion-regulation skills were associated with AD and whether these skills predicted alcohol use during and after treatment for AD. Participants were 116 individuals treated for AD with cognitive behavioral therapy. Emotion regulation and severity of AD symptoms were assessed by self-report. Alcohol use during treatment was assessed by breathalyzer and urine analysis for ethyl glucuronid; alcohol use during the 3-month follow-up interval was assessed by self-report. Results Pretreatment emotion-regulation skills predicted alcohol use during treatment, and posttreatment emotion-regulation skills predicted alcohol use at follow-up, even when controlling for other predictors potentially related to emotion regulation. Among a broad range of specific emotion-regulation skills, the ability to tolerate negative emotions was the only skill that negatively predicted subsequent alcohol consumption when controlling for the other skills. Individuals in the AD sample reported significantly more deficits in emotion-regulation skills than did those in a non-clinical control sample, but significantly less than did those in a sample of individuals exclusively meeting criteria for major depressive disorder. Conclusions Enhancement of general emotion-regulation skills, especially the ability to tolerate negative emotions, appears to be an important target in the treatment of AD. PMID:21534653

  17. Individual Variation in Alcohol Intake Predicts Reinforcement, Motivation, and Compulsive Alcohol Use in Rats.

    PubMed

    Spoelder, Marcia; Hesseling, Peter; Baars, Annemarie M; Lozeman-van 't Klooster, José G; Rotte, Marthe D; Vanderschuren, Louk J M J; Lesscher, Heidi M B

    2015-12-01

    Alcohol is one of the most commonly used psychoactive substances. Prolonged alcohol use can result in alcohol use disorder (AUD), characterized by excessive and compulsive alcohol consumption. Importantly, however, the development of AUD only happens in a minority of individuals who consume alcohol. To understand the individual vulnerability for AUD, models that capture both the individual variability in alcohol consumption and the transition from casual to compulsive alcohol use are essential. Individual variability in voluntary alcohol intake and the preference for alcohol were assessed under continuous alcohol access (CAA) and intermittent-every-other-day alcohol access (IAA) schedules in the home cage using outbred Lister Hooded rats. Subsequently, the reinforcing properties of alcohol were tested in an operant setting. In subsequent experiments, we performed a quinine adulteration experiment to assess inflexible alcohol consumption and blood alcohol levels (BALs) were assessed after voluntary alcohol consumption. We found marked individual differences in alcohol consumption and preference under both access schedules, whereby subgroups of high- and low-alcohol-drinking rats (HD and LD) could be identified. HD with IAA increased their alcohol intake over days in the first month, whereas LD did not. Moreover, when alcohol access time was extended from 7 to 24 h/d for rats with IAA, alcohol intake profoundly increased in HD with IAA, whereas LD with IAA maintained low levels of alcohol intake. Furthermore, HD earned more alcohol than LD under both fixed ratio and progressive ratio schedules of reinforcement. We further found that HD continued their intake of a quinine-adulterated alcohol solution to a larger extent than LD and HD showed higher BALs after 30 minutes of alcohol consumption. These profound individual differences in alcohol intake, reinforcement, motivation, and AUD-like behavior provide a promising tool to unravel the neurobehavioral underpinnings of

  18. Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

    PubMed

    Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

    2017-06-01

    An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post-marketing

  19. Predicting DUI recidivism: blood alcohol concentration and driver record factors.

    PubMed

    Marowitz, L A

    1998-07-01

    This study examined the relationship between blood alcohol concentration (BAC) at arrest, driving history and other demographic factors, and the 1-year post-arrest probability of recidivism for drunk driving (DUI) convictees. Complex and simple prediction models were developed. All models found a statistically significant cubic relationship between BAC and recidivism, reflecting a relatively high rate of recidivism at a BAC of 0.00%, decreasing to a minimum at ca 0.09% BAC, then increasing to another relatively high rate at a BAC of ca 0.29%, followed by a decline in recidivism to BAC levels of 0.35% and beyond. High rates of recidivism at high BACs suggest alcohol dependency, while high rates at low BACs suggest the involvement of other impairing substances. The rate of DUI recidivism for offenders who refused alcohol testing was the same as for aggregated BAC-tested offenders who had prior DUIs at the time of the arrest. The probability of DUI recidivism predicted by a simple model using BAC, prior 2-year traffic convictions, and offender level (first or repeat offender) could be used along with other factors by presentence investigators, judges or in administrative settings to determine appropriate sanctions, treatment or other remedial measures. The findings support the notion that first offenders with high BAC levels and prior 2-year traffic convictions are at as high a risk of recidivating as many repeat offenders, and might therefore benefit from similar sanctions and/or remedial treatment. The findings also support viewing DUI arrestees with very low BACs as probable drug users with relatively high probabilities of recidivating.

  20. Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen

    2017-01-01

    Aim To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9–17. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Results Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Conclusion Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. PMID:27864186

  1. Exposure of children and adolescents to alcohol marketing on social media websites.

    PubMed

    Winpenny, Eleanor M; Marteau, Theresa M; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6-14 years; 15-24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15-24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation.

  2. Exposure of Children and Adolescents to Alcohol Marketing on Social Media Websites

    PubMed Central

    Winpenny, Eleanor M.; Marteau, Theresa M.; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    Aims: In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. Methods: We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6–14 years; 15–24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Results: Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15–24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. Conclusion: The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation. PMID:24293506

  3. The role of promotion in alcoholism treatment marketing.

    PubMed

    Jones, M A; Self, D R; Owens, C A; Kline, T A

    1988-01-01

    This article is an overview of the promotion function as a part of the ATM's marketing mix. It approaches various promotion decision areas from a managerial perspective, focusing upon some key components of promotion planning. Rather than provide specific operational or implementation details (how to write a brochure) it is more conceptual in nature and offers a framework for promotion planners. The article addresses promotion management, promotion objectives, analysis for promotion planning, the promotion mix, and addresses the benefits and limitations of some specific promotion tools available to the ATM manager. It treats ATMs as a service and reveals specific implications for promotion strategy dictated by services. The article also reports promotion tools employed by Alabama ATMs citing data from the Alabama study.

  4. Predictive Models of Alcohol Use Based on Attitudes and Individual Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Del Castillo Rodríguez, José A. García; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Soler, M. Carmen Quiles; Del Castillo-López, Álvaro García; Pertusa, Mónica Gázquez; Campos, Juan Carlos Marzo; Inglés, Cándido J.

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people' attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The…

  5. Ecological Relevance of Memory Tests and the Prediction of Relapse in Alcoholics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sussman, Steve; And Others

    Recent research suggests that alcoholic inpatients' performance on neuropsychological tests is predictive of their drinking status following discharge from alcohol rehabilitation programs, although no single test itself has been predictive of relapse. This study seeks to develop a ecologically relevant memory test that would predict relapse and…

  6. Predictive Models of Alcohol Use Based on Attitudes and Individual Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Del Castillo Rodríguez, José A. García; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Soler, M. Carmen Quiles; Del Castillo-López, Álvaro García; Pertusa, Mónica Gázquez; Campos, Juan Carlos Marzo; Inglés, Cándido J.

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people' attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The…

  7. Aftershock Prediction for High-Frequency Financial Markets' Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldovin, Fulvio; Camana, Francesco; Caraglio, Michele; Stella, Attilio L.; Zamparo, Marco

    The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been shown to be common to most financial assets, both at high and low frequency. Its present-day description relies on an empirical characterization proposed by Omori at the end of 1800 for seismic earthquakes. We point out the limited predictive power in this phenomenological approach and present a stochastic model, based on the scaling symmetry of financial assets, which is potentially capable to predict aftershocks occurrence, given the main shock magnitude. Comparisons with S&P high-frequency data confirm this predictive potential.

  8. The sales and marketing practices of English-language internet alcohol vendors.

    PubMed

    Williams, Rebecca S; Schmidt, Allison

    2014-03-01

    This study aimed to fill information gaps about the sales and marketing practices of internet alcohol vendors and their implications for addressing youth access and other legal violations. Further, it aimed to expand the limited scientific literature on internet alcohol sales using systematic survey methods to inform future efforts to regulate this industry and prevent sales to minors. The design was a cross-sectional website content analysis survey. [Not applicable]. A total of 105 internet alcohol vendor websites. Six key content analysis topics were explored: products offered, average prices and proportions of vendors using different promotions, policy statements and methods for age verification, payment and delivery. Websites sell and promote a variety of alcohol products, offered as cheaply as $1.93 for a 750-ml bottle. Vendors rely heavily upon age verification methods that are unlikely to prevent sales to minors. Many vendors advertise shipping of products via methods through which it is illegal or against delivery company policies to transport alcohol, and 99% of vendors accept credit cards. Limiting and enforcing delivery and payment options are types of policy interventions that have been used successfully with internet cigarette vendors that may be applicable to internet alcohol vendors as well. Internet alcohol vendor practices are insufficient to prevent sales to minors, and need further regulation and enforcement of existing policies. Their sales practices are similar to those of internet cigarette vendors prior to regulation, and similar regulatory approaches may be effective in reducing internet alcohol sales to minors. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  9. Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen

    2017-01-01

    To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9-17. MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press.

  10. Composition and Nutrient Information of Non-Alcoholic Beverages in the Spanish Market: An Update.

    PubMed

    Serrano Iglesias, María; de Lourdes Samaniego Vaesken, María; Varela Moreiras, Gregorio

    2016-10-08

    The aim of this study was to draw an updated map of the nutrition facts in the different categories of non-alcoholic beverages in the Spanish market based on the information declared on the labels of these products; we expect this first step to justify the need for the coordination and harmonization of food composition tables in Spain so that there will be an updated database available to produce realistic scientific nutrient intake estimates in accordance with the actual market scenario. The nutrition facts declared on the labels of non-alcoholic beverages by manufacturers in Spain were compiled and studied. The database included 211 beverages classified in 7 groups with energy/carbohydrate content per 100 mL ranging from 0-55 kcal/0-13 g for soft drinks; 2-60 kcal/0-14.5 g for energy drinks; 24-31 kcal/5.8-7.5 g for sports drinks; 1-32 kcal/0-7.3 g for drinks containing mineral salts in their composition; 14-69 kcal/2.6-17 g for fruit juice, nectar, and grape musts; 43-78 kcal/6.1-14.4 g for vegetable drinks; and 33-88 kcal/3.6-14 g for dairy drinks. The current non-alcoholic beverage market is a dynamic, growing, and highly innovative one, allowing consumers to choose according to their preferences, needs, or level of physical activity at any moment of the day.

  11. Alcohol sponsorship of a summer of sport: a frequency analysis of alcohol marketing during major sports events on New Zealand television.

    PubMed

    Chambers, Tim; Signal, Louise; Carter, Mary-Ann; McConville, Samuel; Wong, Rebecca; Zhu, Wendy

    2017-01-13

    This research aims to assess the nature and extent of alcohol marketing through sport sponsorship over a summer of televised sport in New Zealand. Frequency analysis of New Zealand television broadcasts of five international sporting events during the summer of 2014-2015. Broadcasts were analysed to identify the percentage of time when alcohol brands were visible during game-play. The number of independent alcohol brand exposures was recorded. Alcohol brands were observed during every televised event. Audiences were exposed to between 1.6 and 3.8 alcohol brand exposures per minute. Alcohol brands were visible between 42 and 777 times across the games examined. For three out of the five events alcohol brands were visible for almost half of the game. Alcohol sponsorship was prevalent in international sport on New Zealand television. Given the popularity of broadcast sport, especially with children, there is an urgent need for regulation of alcohol sponsorship of sport. There are viable models of alcohol sponsorship replacement but their implementation requires the will of both sporting organisations and politicians. This research adds weight to arguments to implement recommendations to remove all alcohol sponsorship of sport.

  12. Do community characteristics predict alcohol-related crime?

    PubMed

    Breen, Courtney; Shakeshaft, Anthony; Slade, Tim; Love, Stephanie; D'Este, Catherine; Mattick, Richard P

    2011-01-01

    Alcohol-related crime is a substantial community problem. There is evidence to suggest that certain geographic areas experience higher rates of alcohol-related crime and that both individual and community factors are associated with alcohol-related crime. There is limited research at the community level despite communities being the target of interventions designed to reduce alcohol-related harm. This study aims to determine whether there are differences in alcohol-related crime at the community level and examines whether certain community characteristics are associated with increased alcohol-related crime. Routinely collected police data from 20 rural communities in New South Wales, Australia were analysed. The ratio of alcohol to non-alcohol-related criminal incidents was used as a proxy for alcohol-related crime. Predictor variables were population-adjusted community characteristics, including demographic and resource variables. Regression analyses suggest that there are differences between communities in alcohol-related crime. Less socioeconomic disadvantage and more GPs and licensed premises (pubs and clubs) are associated with greater alcohol-related crime at the community level. Decreasing the socioeconomic well-being of a community is not appropriate; however, introducing additional taxes to increase the cost of alcohol may decrease consumption and therefore alcohol-related crime. Reducing or capping the number of licensed premises, specifically the number of pubs and clubs, may be an appropriate strategy to reduce alcohol-related crime in rural communities.

  13. Using prediction markets of market scoring rule to forecast infectious diseases: a case study in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Tung, Chen-yuan; Chou, Tzu-chuan; Lin, Jih-wen

    2015-08-11

    The Taiwan CDC relied on the historical average number of disease cases or rate (AVG) to depict the trend of epidemic diseases in Taiwan. By comparing the historical average data with prediction markets, we show that the latter have a better prediction capability than the former. Given the volatility of the infectious diseases in Taiwan, historical average is unlikely to be an effective prediction mechanism. We designed and built the Epidemic Prediction Markets (EPM) system based upon the trading mechanism of market scoring rule. By using this system, we aggregated dispersed information from various medical professionals to predict influenza, enterovirus, and dengue fever in Taiwan. EPM was more accurate in 701 out of 1,085 prediction events than the traditional baseline of historical average and the winning ratio of EPM versus AVG was 64.6 % for the target week. For the absolute prediction error of five diseases indicators of three infectious diseases, EPM was more accurate for the target week than AVG except for dengue fever confirmed cases. The winning ratios of EPM versus AVG for the confirmed cases of severe complicated influenza case, the rate of enterovirus infection, and the rate of influenza-like illness in the target week were 69.6 %, 83.9 and 76.0 %, respectively; instead, for the prediction of the confirmed cases of dengue fever and the confirmed cases of severe complicated enterovirus infection, the winning ratios of EPM were all below 50 %. Except confirmed cases of dengue fever, EPM provided accurate, continuous and real-time predictions of four indicators of three infectious diseases for the target week in Taiwan and outperformed the historical average data of infectious diseases.

  14. Predicting women's alcohol risk-taking while abroad.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gabie; Klein, Sarah

    2010-05-01

    Numerous studies have examined risk factors that are associated with heavy alcohol use; however, much of this research has not addressed factors that specifically relate to women's alcohol use. The current study has extended the previous literature on women's alcohol-use behavior by examining factors associated with risky drinking in young women traveling abroad (n = 55). Using a pretest-posttest design, we examined the influence of disinhibition sensation-seeking and endorsement of social enhancement alcohol expectancies in relation to participation in risky alcohol use while abroad for three weeks. Analyses confirmed that disinhibition sensation-seeking and social enhancement alcohol expectancies were associated with participation in risky alcohol-use behaviors while abroad (controlling for alcohol-use at the pretest). Analysis of qualitative data reinforced the importance of social facilitation in women's alcohol risk-taking. Participants' qualitative data also emphasized characteristics of situational disinhibition relating to travel as well as culturally-specific motivations for alcohol-use behaviors. Further research examining women's personal need for disinhibition and the role of situational disinhibition in motivating alcohol risk-taking is warranted. In addition, the current findings suggest that interventions focusing on the connections between alcohol use and enhancement of social relationships and the potential isolating effects of non-use are necessary.

  15. Self-Reported Youth and Adult Exposure to Alcohol Marketing in Traditional and Digital Media: Results of a Pilot Survey.

    PubMed

    Jernigan, David H; Padon, Alisa; Ross, Craig; Borzekowski, Dina

    2017-03-01

    Alcohol marketing is known to be a significant risk factor for underage drinking. However, little is known about youth and adult exposure to alcohol advertising in digital and social media. This study piloted a comparative assessment of youth and adult recall of exposure to online marketing of alcohol. From September to October 2013, a pilot survey of past 30-day exposure to alcohol advertising and promotional content in traditional and digital media was administered to a national sample of 1,192 youth (ages 13 to 20) and 1,124 adults (ages ≥21) using a prerecruited Internet panel maintained by GfK Custom Research. The weighted proportions of youth and adults who reported this exposure were compared by media type and by advertising and promotional content. Youth were more likely than adults to recall exposure to alcohol advertising on television (69.2% vs. 61.9%), radio (24.8% vs. 16.7%), billboards (54.8% vs. 35.4%), and the Internet (29.7% vs. 16.8%), but less likely to recall seeing advertising in magazines (35.7% vs. 36.4%). Youth were also more likely to recall seeing advertisements and pictures on the Internet of celebrities using alcohol (36.1% vs. 20.8%) or wearing clothing promoting alcohol (27.7% vs. 15.9%), and actively respond (i.e., like, share, or post) to alcohol-related content online. Youth report greater exposure to alcohol advertising and promotional content than adults in most media, including on the Internet. These findings emphasize the need to assure compliance with voluntary industry standards on the placement of alcohol advertising and the importance of developing better tools for monitoring youth exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly on the Internet. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  16. Target marketing of tobacco and alcohol-related products to ethnic minority groups in the United States.

    PubMed

    Moore, D J; Williams, J D; Qualls, W J

    1996-01-01

    This paper examines whether increased consumption of tobacco and alcohol products by minority groups is a function of the target marketing campaigns directed at these groups by marketers, and whether such contributes to the perpetuation of racism. First, a description of the tobacco and alcohol consumption rates of blacks and Hispanics compared to whites is presented, including a comparative analysis of the health effects and mortality rates resulting from the consumption of tobacco and alcohol. Second, the paper examines specific marketing strategies of targeting tobacco and alcohol products to ethnic minority consumers. This is followed by a discussion of whether these practices are a deliberate strategy driven by racism or just the pursuit of profit. A framework for answering the question is provided. Finally, the paper assesses the prospects for change in the future, and analyzes specific needs for future research.

  17. Diagnostic accuracy study of three alcohol breathalysers marketed for sale to the public.

    PubMed

    Ashdown, Helen F; Fleming, Susannah; Spencer, Elizabeth A; Thompson, Matthew J; Stevens, Richard J

    2014-12-19

    To assess the diagnostic accuracy of three personal breathalyser devices available for sale to the public marketed to test safety to drive after drinking alcohol. Prospective comparative diagnostic accuracy study comparing two single-use breathalysers and one digital multiuse breathalyser (index tests) to a police breathalyser (reference test). Establishments licensed to serve alcohol in a UK city. Of 222 participants recruited, 208 were included in the main analysis. Participants were eligible if they were 18 years old or over, had consumed alcohol and were not intending to drive within the following 6 h. Sensitivity and specificity of the breathalysers for the detection of being at or over the UK legal driving limit (35 µg/100 mL breath alcohol concentration). 18% of participants (38/208) were at or over the UK driving limit according to the police breathalyser. The digital multiuse breathalyser had a sensitivity of 89.5% (95% CI 75.9% to 95.8%) and a specificity of 64.1% (95% CI 56.6% to 71.0%). The single-use breathalysers had a sensitivity of 94.7% (95% CI 75.4% to 99.1%) and 26.3% (95% CI 11.8% to 48.8%), and a specificity of 50.6% (95% CI 40.4% to 60.7%) and 97.5% (95% CI 91.4% to 99.3%), respectively. Self-reported alcohol consumption threshold of 5 UK units or fewer had a higher sensitivity than all personal breathalysers. One alcohol breathalyser had sensitivity of 26%, corresponding to false reassurance for approximately one person in four who is over the limit by the reference standard, at least on the evening of drinking alcohol. The other devices tested had 90% sensitivity or higher. All estimates were subject to uncertainty. There is no clearly defined minimum sensitivity for this safety-critical application. We conclude that current regulatory frameworks do not ensure high sensitivity for these devices marketed to consumers for a decision with potentially catastrophic consequences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to

  18. Evaluating the Effect of a Campus-wide Social Norms Marketing Intervention on Alcohol Use Perceptions, Consumption, and Blackouts.

    PubMed

    Su, Jinni; Hancock, Linda; Wattenmaker McGann, Amanda; Alshagra, Mariam; Ericson, Rhianna; Niazi, Zackaria; Dick, Danielle M; Adkins, Amy

    2017-09-22

    Objective To evaluate the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts at a large, urban, public university. Participants 4,172 college students (1,208 freshmen, 1,159 sophomores, 953 juniors, 852 seniors) who completed surveys in Spring 2015 for the Spit for Science Study, a longitudinal study of students' substance use and emotional health. Methods Participants were emailed an online survey that queried campaign readership, perception of peer alcohol use, alcohol consumption, frequency of consumption and frequency of blackouts. Associations between variables were evaluated using path analysis. Results We found that campaign readership was associated with more accurate perceptions of peer alcohol use, which, in turn, was associated with self-reported lower number of drinks per sitting and experiencing fewer blackouts. Conclusions This evaluation supports the use of social norms marketing as a population-level intervention to correct alcohol use misperceptions and reduce blackouts.

  19. Pharmacological aversion treatment of alcohol dependence. I. Production and prediction of conditioned alcohol aversion.

    PubMed

    Howard, M O

    2001-08-01

    Eighty-two hospitalized alcoholics receiving pharmacological aversion therapy (PAT) over a 10-day treatment interval completed cognitive, behavioral, and psychophysiological measures evaluating conditioned aversion to alcohol. Pre-post assessments provided convergent support for the efficacy of PAT vis-à-vis production of conditioned aversion to alcohol. Positive alcohol-related outcome expectancies were significantly reduced, whereas confidence that drinking could be avoided in various high-risk situations for consumption was increased following PAT. Behavioral and cardiac rate assessments revealed significant changes following PAT that were specific to alcoholic beverages and potentially reflective of conditioned alcohol aversion. Patients with more extensive pretreatment experiences with alcohol-associated nausea and greater involvement in antisocial conduct appeared to be less susceptible to the PAT conditioning protocol.

  20. Joe Camel in a bottle: Diageo, the Smirnoff brand, and the transformation of the youth alcohol market.

    PubMed

    Mosher, James F

    2012-01-01

    I have documented the shift in youth alcoholic beverage preference from beer to distilled spirits between 2001 and 2009. I have assessed the role of distilled spirits industry marketing strategies to promote this shift using the Smirnoff brand marketing campaign as a case example. I conclude with a discussion of the similarities in corporate tactics across consumer products with adverse public health impacts, the importance of studying corporate marketing and public relations practices, and the implications of those practices for public health.

  1. Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) Symptoms Predict Alcohol Expectancy Development

    PubMed Central

    Squeglia, Lindsay M.; Brammer, Whitney A.; Ray, Lara A.; Lee, Steve S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Positive alcohol expectancies and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are independent risk factors for adolescent alcohol problems and substance use disorders. However, the association of early ADHD diagnostic status, as well as its separate dimensions of inattention and hyperactivity, with alcohol expectancies is essentially unknown. Method At baseline (i.e., Wave 1), parents of 139 6-to 9-year-old children (71% male) with (N = 77; 55%) and without (N = 62; 45%) ADHD completed structured diagnostic interviews of child psychopathology. Approximately two years later (i.e., Wave 2), children completed a Memory Model-Based Expectancy Questionnaire (MMBEQ) to ascertain their positive and negative expectancies regarding alcohol use. All children were alcohol naïve at both baseline and follow-up assessments. Results Controlling for age, sex, IQ, as well as the number of Wave 1 oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and conduct disorder (CD) symptoms, the number of baseline hyperactivity symptoms prospectively predicted more positive arousing (i.e., MMBEQ “wild and crazy” subscale) alcohol expectancies at Wave 2. No predictive association was observed for the number of Wave 1 inattention symptoms and alcohol expectancies. Conclusions Childhood hyperactivity prospectively and positively predicted expectancies regarding the arousing properties of alcohol, independent of inattention and ODD/CD symptoms, as well as other key covariates. Even in the absence of explicit alcohol engagement, youths with elevated hyperactivity may benefit from targeted intervention given its association with more positive arousing alcohol expectancies. PMID:27110089

  2. Attentional bias to alcohol stimuli predicts elevated cue-induced craving in young adult social drinkers.

    PubMed

    Manchery, Linda; Yarmush, Devorah E; Luehring-Jones, Peter; Erblich, Joel

    2017-07-01

    Considerable evidence has identified biased cognitive processing of alcohol-related stimuli as an important factor in the maintenance of alcohol-seeking and relapse among individuals suffering from alcohol use-disorders (AUDs). In addition, a large body of research has demonstrated that exposure to alcohol cues can elicit powerful alcohol cravings. Little is known, however, about the possible relationship between attentional bias and cue-induced cravings, and even less is known about these processes in social drinkers without a personal history of AUDs. The goal of this study was to examine the possibility that attentional biases toward alcohol-related stimuli would predict elevated cue-induced alcohol craving in this population. Young adult social drinkers (N=30, Mean age=22.8±1.9, 61% female) recruited from an urban university population completed a visual dot probe task in which they were presented with alcohol and neutral stimulus pictures that were immediately followed by a visual probe replacing one of the pictures. Attentional bias was measured by calculating reaction times to probes that replaced alcohol stimuli vs. neutral stimuli. Participants then completed a classic alcohol cue-exposure task and reported cravings immediately before and after alcohol and neutral cue-exposures. Not surprisingly, exposure to alcohol cues elicited significant cravings. Consistent with the study hypothesis, larger attentional biases toward alcohol stimuli predicted higher levels of alcohol craving. Findings demonstrate that heightened attention to alcohol stimuli can significantly impact motivation to consume in healthy young adults, and suggest a possible pathway linking cognitive processes early in the drinking trajectory to the later development of AUDs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The five-year predictive validity of each of the seven DSM-IV items for alcohol dependence among alcoholics.

    PubMed

    Schuckit, Marc A; Danko, George P; Smith, Tom L; Buckman, Kelly R

    2002-07-01

    Information about the prognostic implications of a DSM-IV diagnosis of alcohol dependence is important to both clinicians and researchers. In this regard, only limited data are available on the performance of specific diagnostic items. This study reports data gathered with a structured, validated interview with 642 alcohol-dependent men and women from the Collaborative Study of the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA). The goals were to evaluate the ability of each of the DSM-IV dependence items to predict the occurrence over the next 5 years of a broad pattern of 27 alcohol-related problems. For comparison, similar data are reported regarding the performance of abuse criteria for 516 additional subjects. The results revealed that dependence item 3 (use of alcohol in larger amounts) was the only criterion that did not relate significantly to outcome, and indicated that the dependence criteria related relatively similarly to different types of outcomes among alcoholics. No specific combination of diagnostic items stood out in predicting outcome but, rather, the span of items generally performed well. These data support the potential usefulness of the DSM-IV dependence criteria.

  4. Composition and Nutrient Information of Non-Alcoholic Beverages in the Spanish Market: An Update

    PubMed Central

    Serrano Iglesias, María; de Lourdes Samaniego Vaesken, María; Varela Moreiras, Gregorio

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to draw an updated map of the nutrition facts in the different categories of non-alcoholic beverages in the Spanish market based on the information declared on the labels of these products; we expect this first step to justify the need for the coordination and harmonization of food composition tables in Spain so that there will be an updated database available to produce realistic scientific nutrient intake estimates in accordance with the actual market scenario. Materials and Methods: The nutrition facts declared on the labels of non-alcoholic beverages by manufacturers in Spain were compiled and studied. Results: The database included 211 beverages classified in 7 groups with energy/carbohydrate content per 100 mL ranging from 0–55 kcal/0–13 g for soft drinks; 2–60 kcal/0–14.5 g for energy drinks; 24–31 kcal/5.8–7.5 g for sports drinks; 1–32 kcal/0–7.3 g for drinks containing mineral salts in their composition; 14–69 kcal/2.6–17 g for fruit juice, nectar, and grape musts; 43–78 kcal/6.1–14.4 g for vegetable drinks; and 33–88 kcal/3.6–14 g for dairy drinks. Conclusion: The current non-alcoholic beverage market is a dynamic, growing, and highly innovative one, allowing consumers to choose according to their preferences, needs, or level of physical activity at any moment of the day. PMID:27740599

  5. A social marketing approach to involving Afghans in community-level alcohol problem prevention.

    PubMed

    Cherry, L; Redmond, S P

    1994-06-01

    A program for preventing alcohol-related problems at the community level using environmentally-focused, public health approaches sought to involve a new segment of the community. That segment consisted of recently-immigrated Afghans from a traditionally abstinent culture. Social marketing research was employed to elicit value-based benefits to be used in promoting the product (involvement with environmental change efforts) to the target audience. While the channels of distribution for promotional messages were easily identified, special attention was required relative to effective spokespersons. Much was also learned about the immigration experience of Afghans in a San Francisco Bay Area community that has significance for other fields.

  6. Teen Parties: Who Has Parties, What Predicts Whether There is Alcohol and Who Supplies the Alcohol?

    PubMed Central

    Friese, Bettina; Grube, Joel W.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores which youth are more likely to have parties at home, what factors are associated with the presence of alcohol at parties, and who supplies the alcohol. We collected data in 2011 and 2012 through telephone interviews with 1,121 teens living in 50 mid-sized California cities. Overall, about a quarter of teens reported having had a party at their house in the past 12 months, of whom 39% reported that there was alcohol at their last party. Multiple sources supplied alcohol for most parties. Seventy-two percent of those having a party stated that at least one of their parents knew about their last party, and 64% reported that a parent was home at least part of the time. Seventy percent of youth who hosted a party with alcohol said that their parent(s) definitely knew that there was alcohol at the party, 24% replied that their parent(s) probably knew, and only 5% said that their parent(s) did not know that there was alcohol at the party. Logistic regression analyses indicated that youth with parents who host parties at home are themselves more likely to host parties at home. Having alcohol at a party was positively related to the age of the teen and the number of guests attending, and was negatively related to parents' awareness of the party. However, we found no relationship between whether a parent was at home at the time of the party and whether it included alcohol. These findings suggest that teens who have parties with alcohol at home have parents who know that there is alcohol at the party, even though only a small number of parents provided alcohol for the party. PMID:25131398

  7. Predicting an Alcohol Use Disorder in Urban American Indian Youths

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanley, Linda R.; Miller, Kimberly A.; Beauvais, Fred; Walker, Patricia Silk; Walker, R. Dale

    2014-01-01

    This study examines predictors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) among an urban American Indian cohort who were followed from approximately age 11 to age 20. Approximately 27% of the sample had a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol abuse or dependence. The results indicated that externalizing, but not internalizing, behaviors, family conflict, and school…

  8. Predicting an Alcohol Use Disorder in Urban American Indian Youths

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanley, Linda R.; Miller, Kimberly A.; Beauvais, Fred; Walker, Patricia Silk; Walker, R. Dale

    2014-01-01

    This study examines predictors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) among an urban American Indian cohort who were followed from approximately age 11 to age 20. Approximately 27% of the sample had a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol abuse or dependence. The results indicated that externalizing, but not internalizing, behaviors, family conflict, and school…

  9. Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey.

    PubMed

    Swahn, Monica H; Palmier, Jane B; Benegas-Segarra, Agnes; Sinson, Fe A

    2013-12-10

    A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths' drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5,290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI=1.06-3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI=1.05-2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI =1.06-2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

  10. One size (never) fits all: segment differences observed following a school-based alcohol social marketing program.

    PubMed

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

    2015-04-01

    According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. A sample of 371 year 10 students (aged: 14-16 years; 51.4% boys) participated in a prospective (pre-post) multisite alcohol social marketing program. Game On: Know Alcohol (GO:KA) program included 6, student-centered, and interactive lessons to teach adolescents about alcohol and strategies to abstain or moderate drinking. A repeated measures design was used. Baseline demographics, drinking attitudes, drinking intentions, and alcohol knowledge were cluster analyzed to identify segments. Change on key program outcome measures and satisfaction with program components were assessed by segment. Three segments were identified; (1) Skeptics, (2) Risky Males, (3) Good Females. Segments 2 and 3 showed greatest change in drinking attitudes and intentions. Good Females reported highest satisfaction with all program components and Skeptics lowest program satisfaction with all program components. Three segments, each differing on psychographic and demographic variables, exhibited different change patterns following participation in GO:KA. Post hoc analysis identified that satisfaction with program components differed by segment offering opportunities for further research. © 2015, American School Health Association.

  11. Marketing messages in food and alcohol magazine advertisements, variations across type and nutritional content of promoted products: a content analysis.

    PubMed

    Pitts, A; Burke, W; Adams, J

    2014-09-01

    'Marketing messages' are the themes used in advertisements to promote products. We explored the frequency of different marketing messages used in food and alcohol advertisements in UK women's magazines and associations with the type and nutritional content of products promoted. All advertisements for food and alcohol in 108 issues of popular UK monthly women's magazines were identified and text-based marketing messages classified using a bespoke coding framework. This information was linked to existing data on the type (i.e. food group) and nutritional content of advertised products. A total of 2 687 marketing messages were identified in 726 advertisements. Consumer messages such as 'taste' and 'quality' were most frequently found. Marketing messages used in advertisements for food and alcohol were notably different. The relationship between type and nutritional content of products advertised and marketing messages used was not intuitive from a consumer perspective: advertisements for foods 'high in fat and/or sugar' were less likely to use messages related to health, but more likely to use messages emphasizing reduced amounts of specific nutrients. Almost all advertisements included consumer-related marketing messages. Marketing messages used were not always congruent with the type or nutritional content of advertised products. These findings should be considered when developing policy. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Predictive models of alcohol use based on attitudes and individual values.

    PubMed

    García del Castillo Rodríguez, José A; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Quiles Soler, M Carmen; García del Castillo-López, Alvaro; Gázquez Pertusa, Mónica; Marzo Campos, Juan Carlos; Inglés, Candido J

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people's attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The questionnaire used obtained information on participants' alcohol use, attitudes and personal values. The results show that the attitudes model correctly classifies 76.3% of cases. Likewise, the model for level of alcohol use correctly classifies 82% of cases. According to our results, we can conclude that there are a series of individual values that influence drinking and attitudes to alcohol use, which therefore provides us with a potentially powerful instrument for developing preventive intervention programs.

  13. Does the singular value decomposition entropy have predictive power for stock market? - Evidence from the Shenzhen stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Rongbao; Xiong, Wei; Li, Xinjie

    2015-12-01

    This paper analyzes the predictive ability of the singular value decomposition entropy for the Shenzhen Component Index based on different scales. It is found that, the predictive ability of the entropy for the index is affected by the width of moving time windows and the structural break in stock market. By moving time windows with one year, the predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy of Shenzhen stock market for its component index is found after the reform of non-tradable shares.

  14. Platelet monoamine oxidase activity predicts alcohol sensitivity and voluntary alcohol intake in rhesus monkeys.

    PubMed

    Wargelius, Hanna-Linn; Fahlke, Claudia; Suomi, Stephen J; Oreland, Lars; Higley, James Dee

    2010-02-01

    Platelet monoamine oxidase B (MAO-B) has been proposed to be a biological marker for the properties of monoamine systems, with low activity being associated with vulnerability for high scores on personality traits such as sensation seeking, monotony avoidance, and impulsiveness, as well as for vulnerability for alcoholism. In the present study, platelet MAO-B activity was analysed in 78 rhesus macaques, and its relation to voluntary alcohol intake and behaviours after intravenous alcohol administration was observed. Monkeys with low platelet MAO-B activity had low levels of 5-hydroxyindole acetic acid in cerebrospinal fluid and showed excessive aggression after alcohol administration. A novel finding was that animals with low platelet MAO-B activity showed less intoxication following alcohol administration. As we have shown previously, they also voluntarily consumed more alcohol. We here replicate results from studies on both humans and non-human primates, showing the utility of platelet MAO as a marker for risk behaviours and alcohol abuse. Furthermore, we link platelet MAO activity to alcohol sensitivity.

  15. Recovery from alcohol dependence: Do smoking indicators predict abstinence?

    PubMed

    Hufnagel, Anna; Frick, Ulrich; Ridinger, Monika; Wodarz, Norbert

    2017-06-01

    There is inconsistent evidence about the potential influence of smoking on recovery from alcohol dependence. Our study aimed at assessing the impact of smoking-behavior on relapse during a 12 months follow-up period following a detoxification in patients with Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD). Three hundred Patients with AUD (74.9% smoking) were recruited from two inpatient detoxification units in psychiatric hospitals in Germany and their alcohol consumption was prospectively followed for 1 year. Data on different indicators of smoking behavior was gathered. Cox regression model was used to evaluate potential risk factors on time to relapse of alcohol consumption. Two hundred seventy-nine participants (n = 279) were included in the final analysis. Smoking increased the risk for alcohol relapse (hazard ratio = 3.962, 95% CI 1.582-9.921). However, this increased risk is slightly reduced with higher numbers of daily consumed cigarettes (hazard ratio per cigarette = .986, 95% CI .976-.995). Smoking reduced the probability of maintaining alcohol abstinence significantly, whereas higher number of cigarettes smoked daily diminished the increased risk of alcohol relapse in alcohol-dependent patients. Coordinated psychiatric and substance abuse interventions for different subgroups of patients with AUD in the post-acute treatment phase are necessary. Individualized treatment planning is especially important in smoking patients with AUD who are vulnerable for a relapse to alcohol drinking and for somatic complications. Our findings might support individualized treatment plans. (Am J Addict 2017;26:366-373). © 2017 American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  16. Alcohol

    MedlinePlus

    If you are like many Americans, you drink alcohol at least occasionally. For many people, moderate drinking ... risky. Heavy drinking can lead to alcoholism and alcohol abuse, as well as injuries, liver disease, heart ...

  17. Alcohol

    MedlinePlus

    ... that's how many accidents occur. continue What Is Alcoholism? What can be confusing about alcohol is that ... develop a problem with it. Sometimes, that's called alcoholism (say: al-kuh-HOL - ism) or being an ...

  18. A Case Study on Using Prediction Markets as a Rich Environment for Active Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buckley, Patrick; Garvey, John; McGrath, Fergal

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, prediction markets are presented as an innovative pedagogical tool which can be used to create a Rich Environment for Active Learning (REAL). Prediction markets are designed to make forecasts about specific future events by using a market mechanism to aggregate the information held by a large group of traders about that event into a…

  19. A Case Study on Using Prediction Markets as a Rich Environment for Active Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buckley, Patrick; Garvey, John; McGrath, Fergal

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, prediction markets are presented as an innovative pedagogical tool which can be used to create a Rich Environment for Active Learning (REAL). Prediction markets are designed to make forecasts about specific future events by using a market mechanism to aggregate the information held by a large group of traders about that event into a…

  20. Parental alcohol history differentially predicts offspring disorders in distinct subgroups in Israel.

    PubMed

    Meyers, Jacquelyn L; Shmulewitz, Dvora; Elliott, Jennifer C; Thompson, Ronald G; Aharonovich, Efrat; Spivak, Baruch; Weizman, Abraham; Frisch, Amos; Grant, Bridget F; Hasin, Deborah S

    2014-09-01

    The association between alcoholism in parents and related disorders in their offspring is well established in cultures with intermediate/high alcohol consumption, but not in those with low consumption, such as Israel. This study investigated differences in parental transmission of alcohol problems and related psychopathology between immigrants from the former Soviet Union (FSU) to Israel and other Israelis-two Israeli subgroups with differing alcohol consumption behaviors and social norms. A total of 1,347 adults from a household sample were interviewed. Regression analyses were used to examine associations between parental alcohol problems and participant disorders: alcohol, nicotine, and cannabis use disorders (AUD, NUD, CUD); antisocial personality disorder (ASPD); major depressive disorder (MDD); and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We also examined the associations of parental alcohol problems with participant disorders characterized with two latent factors: externalizing (EXT: AUD, NUD, CUD, ASPD) and internalizing (INT: MDD, PTSD). Differential parental transmission of alcohol problems in FSU (n = 315) and non-FSU (n = 1,032) Israelis was examined with statistical interaction. Among emigrants from the FSU, parental alcohol problems predicted AUD, NUD, CUD, ASPD, PTSD, EXT, and INT (mean ratios = 1.38-4.83). In non-FSU Israelis, parental alcohol problems predicted only ASPD and PTSD (mean ratios = 1.08-4.09). Significant interactions were observed for AUD, CUD, PTSD, and EXT; each relationship was stronger in FSU Israelis and null (AUD, CUD, EXT) or less robust (PTSD) in other Israelis. Parental alcohol problems were related to substance use and psychiatric disorders differently in FSU and other Israelis, two groups with different alcohol consumption levels and drinking norms. We propose that, in social contexts that vary in the degree to which they constrain alcohol behavior, underlying genetic predispositions may manifest as different disorders.

  1. Parental Alcohol History Differentially Predicts Offspring Disorders in Distinct Subgroups in Israel

    PubMed Central

    Meyers, Jacquelyn L; Shmulewitz, Dvora; Elliott, Jennifer C; Thompson, Ronald G; Aharonovich, Efrat; Spivak, Baruch; Weizman, Abraham; Frisch, Amos; Grant, Bridget F; Hasin, Deborah S

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The association between alcoholism in parents and related disorders in their offspring is well established in cultures with intermediate/high alcohol consumption, but not in those with low consumption, such as Israel. This study investigated differences in parental transmission of alcohol problems and related psychopathology between immigrants from the former Soviet Union (FSU) to Israel and other Israelis—two Israeli subgroups with differing alcohol consumption behaviors and social norms. Method: A total of 1,347 adults from a household sample were interviewed. Regression analyses were used to examine associations between parental alcohol problems and participant disorders: alcohol, nicotine, and cannabis use disorders (AUD, NUD, CUD); antisocial personality disorder (ASPD); major depressive disorder (MDD); and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We also examined the associations of parental alcohol problems with participant disorders characterized with two latent factors: externalizing (EXT: AUD, NUD, CUD, ASPD) and internalizing (INT: MDD, PTSD). Differential parental transmission of alcohol problems in FSU (n = 315) and non-FSU (n = 1,032) Israelis was examined with statistical interaction. Results: Among emigrants from the FSU, parental alcohol problems predicted AUD, NUD, CUD, ASPD, PTSD, EXT, and INT (mean ratios = 1.38–4.83). In non-FSU Israelis, parental alcohol problems predicted only ASPD and PTSD (mean ratios = 1.08–4.09). Significant interactions were observed for AUD, CUD, PTSD, and EXT; each relationship was stronger in FSU Israelis and null (AUD, CUD, EXT) or less robust (PTSD) in other Israelis. Conclusions: Parental alcohol problems were related to substance use and psychiatric disorders differently in FSU and other Israelis, two groups with different alcohol consumption levels and drinking norms. We propose that, in social contexts that vary in the degree to which they constrain alcohol behavior, underlying genetic

  2. Patient-related Factors Predicting HIV Medication Adherence among Men and Women with Alcohol Problems

    PubMed Central

    PARSONS, JEFFREY T.; ROSOF, ELANA; MUSTANSKI, BRIAN

    2007-01-01

    The study explored the relationship between HIV medication adherence and alcohol, cognitive, social and affective factors in 272 persons with alcohol problems. Alcohol and cognitive factors significantly differentiated those who did and did not adhere. Specifically, adherence confidence and number of drinks emerged as subfactors driving the associations to adherence. Among those who were less than perfectly adherent (n = 154), only alcohol factors predicted levels of nonadherence. Cognitive factors play a role in understanding some of the differences between those who do and do not adhere to their HIV medications, but they do not differentiate among levels of nonadherence. PMID:17284499

  3. The marketing potential of corporate social responsibility activities: the case of the alcohol industry in Latin America and the Caribbean.

    PubMed

    Pantani, Daniela; Peltzer, Raquel; Cremonte, Mariana; Robaina, Katherine; Babor, Thomas; Pinsky, Ilana

    2017-01-01

    The aims were to: (1) identify, monitor and analyse the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices of the alcohol industry in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and (2) examine whether the alcohol industry is using these actions to market their products and brands. Nine health experts from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay conducted a content analysis of 218 CSR activities using a standardized protocol. A content rating procedure was used to evaluate the marketing potential of CSR activities as well as their probable population reach and effectiveness. The LEAD procedure (longitudinal, expert and all data) was applied to verify the accuracy of industry-reported descriptions. A total of 55.8% of the actions were found to have a marketing potential, based on evidence that they are likely to promote brands and products. Actions with marketing potential were more likely to reach a larger audience than actions classified with no marketing potential. Most actions did not fit into any category recommended by the World Health Organization; 50% of the actions involving classroom and college education for young people were found to have marketing potential; 62.3% were classified as meeting the definition of risk management CSR. Alcohol industry Corporate Social Responsibility activities in Latin America and the Caribbean appear to have a strategic marketing role beyond their stated philanthropic and public health purpose. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  4. Recruitment of medial prefrontal cortex neurons during alcohol withdrawal predicts cognitive impairment and excessive alcohol drinking

    PubMed Central

    George, Olivier; Sanders, Chelsea; Freiling, John; Grigoryan, Edward; Vu, Shayla; Allen, Camryn D.; Crawford, Elena; Mandyam, Chitra D.; Koob, George F.

    2012-01-01

    Chronic intermittent access to alcohol leads to the escalation of alcohol intake, similar to binge drinking in humans. Converging lines of evidence suggest that impairment of medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) cognitive function and overactivation of the central nucleus of the amygdala (CeA) are key factors that lead to excessive drinking in dependence. However, the role of the mPFC and CeA in the escalation of alcohol intake in rats with a history of binge drinking without dependence is currently unknown. To address this issue, we examined FBJ murine osteosarcoma viral oncogene homolog (Fos) expression in the mPFC, CeA, hippocampus, and nucleus accumbens and evaluated working memory and anxiety-like behavior in rats given continuous (24 h/d for 7 d/wk) or intermittent (3 d/wk) access to alcohol (20% vol/vol) using a two-bottle choice paradigm. The results showed that abstinence from alcohol in rats with a history of escalation of alcohol intake specifically recruited GABA and corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) neurons in the mPFC and produced working memory impairments associated with excessive alcohol drinking during acute (24–72 h) but not protracted (16 –68 d) abstinence. Moreover, abstinence from alcohol was associated with a functional disconnection of the mPFC and CeA but not mPFC and nucleus accumbens. These results show that recruitment of a subset of GABA and CRF neurons in the mPFC during withdrawal and disconnection of the PFC–CeA pathway may be critical for impaired executive control over motivated behavior, suggesting that dysregulation of mPFC interneurons may be an early index of neuroadaptation in alcohol dependence. PMID:23071333

  5. The composition of alcohol products from markets in Lithuania and Hungary, and potential health consequences: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Sarsh, Bart; Rehm, Jürgen

    2009-01-01

    The rates of alcohol-attributable mortality in Lithuania and Hungary have been shown to be higher than those in most other European countries. Quality of alcohol products is investigated as a possible explanation. In a descriptive pilot study, a convenience sample of alcohol products was collected from local city markets in both countries (Lithuania n = 10, Hungary n = 15) and chemical analyses, including some that have not been done in prior studies, were conducted. The parameters studied were alcoholic strength, volatiles (methanol, acetaldehyde, higher alcohols), ethyl carbamate, anions (including nitrate) and inorganic elements (including lead). Additionally, a multi-target screening analysis for toxicologically relevant substances was conducted. The majority of samples (64%) had an alcohol content between 35% vol. and 40% vol., being in accordance with the typical strength of legal spirits in Europe. Three samples containing significantly higher concentrations of alcohol above 60% vol. were found to be unrecorded alcohol products, defined as any alcohol that is outside of legal and taxed production. Screening analysis showed that those samples contained various flavourings, including the hepatotoxic substance coumarin, at concentrations above the legal limit for foods. All other substance classes under study were found to be at levels of no toxicological concern. Although some problems with the quality of the alcohol samples were found, there is insufficient evidence from this pilot study to conclude that alcohol quality has an influence on health as reflected in alcohol-attributable mortality rates. Given the extent of alcohol-attributable disease burden in central and eastern European countries, future research should focus on collection of large, representative samples, particularly of unrecorded sources, which was the most problematic product group in our study.

  6. Immediate effects of alcohol marketing communications and media portrayals on consumption and cognition: a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies.

    PubMed

    Stautz, Kaidy; Brown, Kyle G; King, Sarah E; Shemilt, Ian; Marteau, Theresa M

    2016-06-09

    Restricting marketing of alcoholic products is purported to be a cost-effective intervention to reduce alcohol consumption. The strength of evidence supporting this claim is contested. This systematic review aimed to assess immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing on alcoholic beverage consumption and related cognitions. Electronic searches of nine databases, supplemented with reference list searches and forward citation tracking, were used to identify randomised, experimental studies assessing immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing communications on objective alcohol consumption (primary outcome), explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions, or selection without purchasing (secondary outcomes). Study limitations were assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate effect sizes. Twenty four studies met the eligibility criteria. A meta-analysis integrating seven studies (758 participants, all students) found that viewing alcohol advertisements increased immediate alcohol consumption relative to viewing non-alcohol advertisements (SMD = 0.20, 95 % CI = 0.05, 0.34). A meta-analysis integrating six studies (631 participants, all students) did not find that viewing alcohol portrayals in television programmes or films increased consumption (SMD = 0.16, 95 % CI = -0.05, 0.37). Meta-analyses of secondary outcome data found that exposure to alcohol portrayals increased explicit alcohol-related cognitions, but did not find that exposure to alcohol advertisements influenced explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions. Confidence in results is diminished by underpowered analyses and unclear risk of bias. Viewing alcohol advertisements (but not alcohol portrayals) may increase immediate alcohol consumption by small amounts, equivalent to between 0.39 and 2.67 alcohol units for males and between 0.25 and 1.69 units for females. The generalizability of this finding

  7. Trait Mindfulness Predicts Attentional and Autonomic Regulation of Alcohol Cue-Reactivity

    PubMed Central

    Garland, Eric L.

    2013-01-01

    Background The trait of mindfulness varies among meditation-naïve individuals and is associated with attentional and autonomic regulation, two neurocognitive functions that become impaired in addiction. It was hypothesized that alcohol dependent inpatients with comparatively high levels of trait mindfulness would exhibit significant autonomic recovery from stress-primed alcohol cues mediated by greater attentional disengagement from such cues. Methods 58 alcohol dependent inpatients participated in affect-modulated psychophysiological cue-reactivity protocol and a spatial cueing task designed to assess alcohol attentional bias (AB). Associations between trait mindfulness, alcohol AB, and an index of autonomic activity, high-frequency heart rate variability (HFHRV), were examined via multivariate path analysis. Results Higher trait mindfulness was significantly associated with less difficulty resisting the urge to drink and greater HFHRV recovery from stress-primed alcohol cues. After statistically controlling for the correlation of mindfulness and perceived difficulty resisting drinking urges, the association between mindfulness and HFHRV recovery was partially mediated by attentional disengagement from alcohol cues (model R2 = .30). Discussion Alcohol dependent inpatients higher in mindfulness are better able to disengage attention from alcohol cues, which in turn predicts the degree of HFHRV recovery from such cues. Trait mindfulness may index cognitive control over appetitive responses reflected in superior attentional and autonomic regulation of stress-primed alcohol cue-reactivity. PMID:23976814

  8. Predicting Problematic Alcohol Use with the DSM-5 Alternative Model of Personality Pathology

    PubMed Central

    Creswell, Kasey G.; Bachrach, Rachel L.; Wright, Aidan G.C.; Pinto, Anthony; Ansell, Emily

    2015-01-01

    There is high comorbidity between personality disorders and alcohol use disorders, which appears related to individual differences in underlying personality dimensions of behavioral undercontrol and affective dysregulation. Very little is known about how the DSM-5 Section III trait model of personality pathology relates to alcohol problems, however, or how the strength of the relationship between personality pathology and alcohol problems changes with age and across gender. The current study examined these questions in a sample of 877 participants using the General Assessment of Personality Disorder to assess general personality dysfunction, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 to measure specific traits, and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test to assess problematic alcohol use. Results demonstrated that general personality pathology (Criterion A) was significantly related to problematic alcohol use after controlling for age and gender effects. Further, two of the five higher-order personality trait domains (Criterion B), Antagonism and Disinhibition, remained significant predictors of problematic alcohol use after accounting for the influence of general personality pathology; however, general personality pathology no longer predicted hazardous alcohol use once Antagonism and Disinhibition were added into the model. Finally, these two specific traits interacted with age, such that Antagonism was a stronger predictor of AUDIT scores among older individuals and Disinhibition was a stronger predictor of alcohol problems among younger individuals. Findings support the general validity of this new personality disorder diagnostic system and suggest important age effects in the relationship between traits and problematic alcohol use. PMID:26389625

  9. Alcohol

    MedlinePlus

    ... de los dientes Video: Getting an X-ray Alcohol KidsHealth > For Kids > Alcohol Print A A A What's in this article? ... What Is Alcoholism? Say No en español El alcohol Getting the Right Message "Hey, who wants a ...

  10. Neural Affective Mechanisms Predict Market-Level Microlending.

    PubMed

    Genevsky, Alexander; Knutson, Brian

    2015-09-01

    Humans sometimes share with others whom they may never meet or know, in violation of the dictates of pure self-interest. Research has not established which neuropsychological mechanisms support lending decisions, nor whether their influence extends to markets involving significant financial incentives. In two studies, we found that neural affective mechanisms influence the success of requests for microloans. In a large Internet database of microloan requests (N = 13,500), we found that positive affective features of photographs promoted the success of those requests. We then established that neural activity (i.e., in the nucleus accumbens) and self-reported positive arousal in a neuroimaging sample (N = 28) predicted the success of loan requests on the Internet, above and beyond the effects of the neuroimaging sample's own choices (i.e., to lend or not). These findings suggest that elicitation of positive arousal can promote the success of loan requests, both in the laboratory and on the Internet. They also highlight affective neuroscience's potential to probe neuropsychological mechanisms that drive microlending, enhance the effectiveness of loan requests, and forecast market-level behavior.

  11. A behavioral economic measure of demand for alcohol predicts brief intervention outcomes.

    PubMed

    MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G

    2007-07-10

    Considerable basic and clinical research supports a behavioral economic conceptualization of alcohol and drug dependence. One behavioral economic approach to assess motivation for a drug is the use of demand curves, or quantitative representations of drug consumption and drug-reinforced responding across a range of prices. This study used a hypothetical alcohol purchase task to generate demand curves, and examined whether the resulting demand curve parameters predicted drinking outcomes following a brief intervention. Participants were 51 college student drinkers (67% female; 94% Caucasian; drinks/week: M=24.57, S.D.=8.77) who completed a brief alcohol intervention. Consistent with predictions, a number of demand curve indices significantly predicted post-intervention alcohol use and frequency of heavy drinking episodes, even after controlling for baseline drinking and other pertinent covariates. Most prominently, O(max) (i.e., maximum alcohol expenditure) and breakpoint (i.e., sensitivity of consumption to increasing price) predicted greater drinking at 6-month post-intervention follow-up. These results indicate that a behavioral economic measure of alcohol demand may have utility in characterizing the malleability of alcohol consumption. Moreover, these results support the utility of translating experimental assays of reinforcement into clinical research.

  12. Alcohol abstinence in patients surviving an episode of alcoholic hepatitis: Prediction and impact on long-term survival.

    PubMed

    Altamirano, José; López-Pelayo, Hugo; Michelena, Javier; Jones, Patricia D; Ortega, Lluisa; Ginès, Pere; Caballería, Juan; Gual, Antoni; Bataller, Ramón; Lligoña, Anna

    2017-06-23

    Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is the most severe form of alcoholic liver disease. Most studies have focused on short-term prognosis, while factors associated with long-term survival are largely unknown. 1) to determine the impact of complete abstinence from alcohol on long-term survival and 2) to identify prognostic factors at admission capable of predicting abstinence during long-term follow-up in patients with AH. One hundred and forty-two patients with biopsy-proven AH that survived the first episode were included. Demographic, psychiatric and biochemical variables at admission and drinking status during follow-up were obtained. Cox regression, logistic regression and classification and regression trees (CART) analyses were used for statistical analysis. Overall mortality was 38% with a median follow-up of 55 months. During follow-up, complete abstinence was reported in 39% and was associated with better long-term survival (HR 0.53; p=0.03). After adjustment for baseline prognostic scoring systems (MELD and ABIC scores), complete abstinence was independently associated with survival (p<0.05). Age and lack of prior alcoholism treatments were independently associated with complete abstinence (p<0.001 and p=0.02, respectively) during follow-up. CART analysis generated a simple and practical algorithm based-on the combination of prior alcoholism treatments and age. Using CART analysis we stratified 2 subgroups of patients with high (65%) and low (26-29%) rates of complete abstinence after an episode of AH. Complete abstinence after an episode of AH positively impacts long-term survival. The combination of 2 variables easily obtained at admission might be useful to predict long-term abstinence after an episode of AH. Strategies aimed at promoting alcohol abstinence in these patients are mandatory. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  13. Britain's alcohol market: how minimum alcohol prices could stop moderate drinkers subsidising those drinking at hazardous and harmful levels.

    PubMed

    Record, Chris; Day, Chris

    2009-10-01

    Discounting of alcoholic products is universal in U.K. supermarkets with some chains selling own brand spirits for less than the duty payable per item. Eighty per cent of alcohol purchases are made by 30% of the population and this group are the main beneficiaries. In December 2008 the government announced its intention to consult on modifications to the Licensing Act 2003 to enable the introduction of mandatory conditions for the sale of alcoholic products in order to curtail alcohol harm. In this article it is shown that families in Britain have nothing to fear from the introduction of a 50 p/unit minimum price of alcohol as the overall effect should be a reduction in average weekly supermarket bills for the majority while harmful and hazardous drinkers will pay more. By paying less for non-alcoholic products sold by supermarkets, moderate drinkers should no longer be effectively subsidising the alcohol purchased by the harmful and hazardous group.

  14. Does industry self-regulation protect young people from exposure to alcohol marketing? A review of compliance and complaint studies.

    PubMed

    Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F

    2017-01-01

    Exposure to alcohol marketing is considered to be potentially harmful to adolescents. In addition to statutory regulation, industry self-regulation is a common way to protect adolescents from alcohol marketing exposures. This paper critically reviews research designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the alcohol industry's compliance procedures to manage complaints when alcohol marketing is considered to have violated a self-regulatory code. Peer-reviewed papers were identified through four literature search engines: PubMed, SCOPUS, PsychINFO and CINAHL. Non-peer-reviewed reports produced by public health agencies, alcohol research centers, non-governmental organizations, government research centers and national industry advertising associations were also included. The search process yielded three peer-reviewed papers, seven non-peer reviewed reports published by academic institutes and non-profit organizations and 20 industry reports. The evidence indicates that the complaint process lacks standardization across countries, industry adjudicators may be trained inadequately or biased and few complaints are upheld against advertisements pre-determined to contain violations of a self-regulatory code. The current alcohol industry marketing complaint process used in a wide variety of countries may be ineffective at removing potentially harmful content from the market-place. The process of determining the validity of complaints employed by most industry groups appears to suffer from serious conflict of interest and procedural weaknesses that could compromise objective adjudication of even well-documented complaints. In our opinion the current system of self-regulation needs major modifications if it is to serve public health objectives, and more systematic evaluations of the complaint process are needed. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  15. Beyond self-reports: drinking motives predict grams of consumed alcohol in wine-tasting sessions.

    PubMed

    Kuntsche, Emmanuel; Kuendig, Hervé

    2012-08-01

    The link between drinking motives and alcohol-related outcomes has been investigated extensively, yet almost exclusively using retrospective self-reports that are subject to recall bias. This study overcomes this limitation using an experimental design to test whether the 4 drinking-motive dimensions (social, enhancement, coping and conformity, as measured in the baseline questionnaire) predict the quantity of alcohol actually ingested during 2 wine-tasting sessions conducted approximately 3 and 7 weeks after the baseline motive assessment. Regression modeling was based on an analog measurement of grams of pure alcohol among 123 young adults. Self-reported data at baseline concurred with the data collected during the experimental sessions, that is, alcohol consumption was high for males and enhancement drinkers and low for conformity drinkers. Coping drinkers significantly increased their consumption between the first and second sessions, while social drinkers tended to decrease theirs. Yet when separately considering data recorded during the first session, none of the drinking motives predicted the amounts of alcohol actually consumed. To conclude, this study demonstrates that motives predict actual alcohol consumption, which is consistent with evidence-based self-reports. Particularly, enhancement and coping drinkers seem to take advantage of the drinking situation probably because they usually appreciate the psychoactive properties of alcohol, either to maximize pleasurable sensations or to alleviate negative ones. However, if the setting is unusual (first tasting session), situational characteristics may "overrule" the effect of personal motives.

  16. Predicting support for restricting food marketing to youth.

    PubMed

    Goren, Amir; Harris, Jennifer L; Schwartz, Marlene B; Brownell, Kelly D

    2010-01-01

    To address the obesity crisis, public health experts recommend major reductions in the marketing of unhealthy food to youth. However, policies to restrict food marketing are not currently viewed as politically feasible. This paper examines attitudes and knowledge about food marketing and support for restricting unhealthy food marketing [corrected] among one group of constituents: parents. A survey of 807 parents found that those most likely to support food marketing restrictions were also more likely to have negative views of current food practices. [corrected] These findings suggest that increased public education about the harm caused by food marketing may increase public support for policy interventions.

  17. Diagnosis and prediction of rebounds in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Wanfeng; Woodard, Ryan; Sornette, Didier

    2012-02-01

    We introduce the concept of “negative bubbles” as the mirror (but not necessarily exactly symmetric) image of standard financial bubbles, in which positive feedback mechanisms may lead to transient accelerating price falls. To model these negative bubbles, we adapt the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with a hazard rate describing the collective buying pressure of noise traders. The price fall occurring during a transient negative bubble can be interpreted as an effective random down payment that rational agents accept to pay in the hope of profiting from the expected occurrence of a possible rally. We validate the model by showing that it has significant predictive power in identifying the times of major market rebounds. This result is obtained by using a general pattern recognition method that combines the information obtained at multiple times from a dynamical calibration of the JLS model. Error diagrams, Bayesian inference and trading strategies suggest that one can extract genuine information and obtain real skill from the calibration of negative bubbles with the JLS model. We conclude that negative bubbles are in general predictably associated with large rebounds or rallies, which are the mirror images of the crashes terminating standard bubbles.

  18. A randomized trial of three marketing strategies to disseminate a screening and brief alcohol intervention programme to general practitioners.

    PubMed

    Lock, C A; Kaner, E F; Heather, N; McAvoy, B R; Gilvarry, E

    1999-09-01

    Research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. A dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different marketing strategies for the dissemination of a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). Seven hundred and twenty-nine GPs, one per practice, from the former Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies: postal marketing (mailing a promotional brochure to GPs), telemarketing (following a script to market the programme over the telephone), and personal marketing (following the same script during face-to-face marketing at GPs' practices). GPs who took up the programme were asked if they would agree to use it. Outcome measures included the proportions of GPs who took up the programme and agreement to use it. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, 321 (52%) took the programme. There was a significant difference in the proportions of GPs from the three marketing strategies who took the programme (82% telemarketing, 68% personal marketing, and 22% postal marketing). Of the 315 GPs who took the programme and were eligible to use it, 128 (41%) agreed to use the programme for three months. GPs in the postal marketing group were more likely to agree to use the programme (55% postal marketing, 44% personal marketing, and 34% telemarketing). Personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination strategy; however, economic analysis revealed that telemarketing was the most cost-effective strategy. Costs for dissemination per GP were: 13 Pounds telemarketing, 15 Pounds postal marketing, and 88 Pounds personal marketing. Telemarketing appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy for dissemination of SBI to GPs.

  19. A randomized trial of three marketing strategies to disseminate a screening and brief alcohol intervention programme to general practitioners.

    PubMed Central

    Lock, C A; Kaner, E F; Heather, N; McAvoy, B R; Gilvarry, E

    1999-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. A dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. AIM: To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different marketing strategies for the dissemination of a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). METHOD: Seven hundred and twenty-nine GPs, one per practice, from the former Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies: postal marketing (mailing a promotional brochure to GPs), telemarketing (following a script to market the programme over the telephone), and personal marketing (following the same script during face-to-face marketing at GPs' practices). GPs who took up the programme were asked if they would agree to use it. Outcome measures included the proportions of GPs who took up the programme and agreement to use it. RESULTS: Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, 321 (52%) took the programme. There was a significant difference in the proportions of GPs from the three marketing strategies who took the programme (82% telemarketing, 68% personal marketing, and 22% postal marketing). Of the 315 GPs who took the programme and were eligible to use it, 128 (41%) agreed to use the programme for three months. GPs in the postal marketing group were more likely to agree to use the programme (55% postal marketing, 44% personal marketing, and 34% telemarketing). Personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination strategy; however, economic analysis revealed that telemarketing was the most cost-effective strategy. Costs for dissemination per GP were: 13 Pounds telemarketing, 15 Pounds postal marketing, and 88 Pounds personal marketing. CONCLUSION: Telemarketing appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy

  20. Depictions of Alcohol Use in a UK Government Partnered Online Social Marketing Campaign: "Hollyoaks" "The Morning after the Night before"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atkinson, Amanda Marie; Sumnall, Harry; Measham, Fiona

    2011-01-01

    Aims: This study analysed the depiction of alcohol in an online government partnered social marketing campaign: Hollyoaks "The Morning After the Night Before". This was a new initiative, providing Internet-delivered episodes of a popular terrestrial drama targeted at young people. Methods: All the 12 episodes were coded for "visual…

  1. Depictions of Alcohol Use in a UK Government Partnered Online Social Marketing Campaign: "Hollyoaks" "The Morning after the Night before"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atkinson, Amanda Marie; Sumnall, Harry; Measham, Fiona

    2011-01-01

    Aims: This study analysed the depiction of alcohol in an online government partnered social marketing campaign: Hollyoaks "The Morning After the Night Before". This was a new initiative, providing Internet-delivered episodes of a popular terrestrial drama targeted at young people. Methods: All the 12 episodes were coded for "visual…

  2. Quantifying alcohol consumption: Self-report, transdermal assessment, and prediction of dependence symptoms☆

    PubMed Central

    Simons, Jeffrey S.; Wills, Thomas A.; Emery, Noah N.; Marks, Russell M.

    2015-01-01

    Research on alcohol use depends heavily on the validity of self-reported drinking. The present paper presents data from 647 days of self-monitoring with a transdermal alcohol sensor by 60 young adults. We utilized a bio chemical measure, transdermal alcohol assessment with the WrisTAS, to examine the convergent validity of three approaches to collecting daily self-report drinking data: experience sampling, daily morning reports of the previous night, and 1-week timeline follow-back (TLFB) assessments. We tested associations between three pharmacokinetic indices (peak concentration, area under the curve (AUC), and time to reach peak concentration) derived from the transdermal alcohol signal and within- and between-person variation in alcohol dependence symptoms. The WrisTAS data corroborated 85.74% of self-reported drinking days based on the experience sampling data. The TLFB assessment and combined experience sampling and morning reports agreed on 87.27% of drinking days. Drinks per drinking day did not vary as a function of wearing or not wearing the sensor; this indicates that participants provided consistent reports of their drinking regardless of biochemical verification. In respect to self-reported alcohol dependence symptoms, the AUC of the WrisTAS alcohol signal was associated with dependence symptoms at both the within- and between-person level. Furthermore, alcohol dependence symptoms at baseline predicted drinking episodes characterized in biochemical data by both higher peak alcohol concentration and faster time to reach peak concentration. The results support the validity of self-report alcohol data, provide empirical data useful for optimal design of daily process sampling, and provide an initial demon stration of the use of transdermal alcohol assessment to characterize drinking dynamics associated with risk for alcohol dependence. PMID:26160523

  3. Reducing alcohol-impaired driving crashes through the use of social marketing.

    PubMed

    Rothschild, Michael L; Mastin, Beth; Miller, Thomas W

    2006-11-01

    Over the past decade there has been little decrease in the number of alcohol-related driving fatalities. During this time most interventions have been educational or legal. This paper presents the results of a field experiment that used social marketing to introduce a new ride program into three rural communities. Almost all people in the 21-34-year-old target know that they should not drive while impaired, and most agree it is not a good thing to do, but for many the opportunity to behave properly does not exist. The Road Crew program was developed using new product development techniques and implemented by developing broad coalitions within the communities. A key feature of the program included rides to, between, and home from bars in older luxury vehicles. Results showed a significant shift in riding/driving behavior, especially among 21-34-year olds, a projected 17% decline in alcohol-related crashes in the first year, no increase in drinking behavior, and large savings between the reactive cost of cleaning up after a crash and the proactive cost of avoiding a crash. Programs have become self-sustaining based on fares and tavern contributions, and have become part of the life style in the treatment communities.

  4. Joe Camel in a Bottle: Diageo, the Smirnoff Brand, and the Transformation of the Youth Alcohol Market

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    I have documented the shift in youth alcoholic beverage preference from beer to distilled spirits between 2001 and 2009. I have assessed the role of distilled spirits industry marketing strategies to promote this shift using the Smirnoff brand marketing campaign as a case example. I conclude with a discussion of the similarities in corporate tactics across consumer products with adverse public health impacts, the importance of studying corporate marketing and public relations practices, and the implications of those practices for public health. PMID:22095339

  5. Solitary Alcohol Use in Teens Is Associated With Drinking in Response to Negative Affect and Predicts Alcohol Problems in Young Adulthood.

    PubMed

    Creswell, Kasey G; Chung, Tammy; Clark, Duncan B; Martin, Christopher S

    2014-09-01

    Adolescent solitary drinking may represent an informative divergence from normative behavior, with important implications for understanding risk for alcohol-use disorders later in life. Within a self-medication framework, we hypothesized that solitary alcohol use would be associated with drinking in response to negative affect and that such a pattern of drinking would predict alcohol problems in young adulthood. We tested these predictions in a longitudinal study in which we examined whether solitary drinking in adolescence (ages 12-18) predicted alcohol-use disorders in young adulthood (age 25) in 466 alcohol-using teens recruited from clinical programs and 243 alcohol-using teens recruited from the community. Findings showed that solitary drinking was associated with drinking in response to negative affect during adolescence and predicted alcohol problems in young adulthood. Results indicate that drinking alone is an important type of alcohol-use behavior that increases risk for the escalation of alcohol use and the development of alcohol problems.

  6. Risk Factors for Elementary School Drinking: Pubertal Status, Personality, and Alcohol Expectancies Concurrently Predict 5th Grade Alcohol Consumption

    PubMed Central

    Gunn, Rachel L.; Smith, Gregory T.

    2010-01-01

    Little is known about the correlates and potential causes of very early drinking. The authors proposed this risk theory: (a) pubertal onset is associated with increased levels of positive urgency (the tendency to act rashly when experiencing intensely positive mood), negative urgency (the tendency to act rashly when distressed), and sensation seeking; (b) those traits predict increased endorsement of high-risk alcohol expectancies; (c) the expectancies predict drinker status among 5th graders; and (d) the apparent influence of positive urgency, negative urgency, and sensation seeking on drinker status is mediated by alcohol expectancies. The authors conducted a concurrent test of whether the relationships among these variables were consistent with the theory in a sample of 1,843 5th grade students. In a well-fitting structural model, their hypotheses were supported. Drinker status among 5th graders is not just a function of context and factors external to children: it is predictable from a combination of pubertal status, personality characteristics, and learned alcohol expectancies. PMID:20822192

  7. Alcohol Use Predicts Number of Sexual Partners for Female but not Male STI Clinic Patients.

    PubMed

    Carey, Kate B; Senn, Theresa E; Walsh, Jennifer L; Scott-Sheldon, Lori A J; Carey, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that greater alcohol involvement will predict number of sexual partners to a greater extent for women than for men, and that the hypothesized sex-specific, alcohol-sexual partner associations will hold when controlling for alternative sex-linked explanations (i.e., depression and drug use). We recruited 508 patients (46 % female, 67 % African American) from a public sexually transmitted infections (STI) clinic. Participants reported number of sexual partners, drinks per week, maximum drinks per day, frequency of heavy drinking; they also completed the AUDIT-C and a measure of alcohol problems. As expected, men reported more drinking and sexual partners. Also as expected, the association between alcohol use and number of partners was significant for women but not for men, and these associations were not explained by drug use or depression. A comprehensive prevention strategy for women attending STI clinics might include alcohol use reduction.

  8. The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Lesley A; Foxcroft, David R

    2009-01-01

    Background The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies. Methods studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. Results seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. Conclusion data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising

  9. The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Smith, Lesley A; Foxcroft, David R

    2009-02-06

    The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies. studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising or promotional activity and

  10. Alcoholism.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caliguri, Joseph P., Ed.

    This extensive annotated bibliography provides a compilation of documents retreived from a computerized search of the ERIC, Social Science Citation Index, and Med-Line databases on the topic of alcoholism. The materials address the following areas of concern: (1) attitudes toward alcohol users and abusers; (2) characteristics of alcoholics and…

  11. Predicting Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Spanish Youth with the Theory of Reasoned Action.

    PubMed

    Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia

    2015-06-19

    Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p < .01). The study confirms that alcohol use and driving under the influence of alcohol are highly prevalent in Spanish young people, and some gender differences exist in these behaviors (p < .01). Furthermore, the study confirms the validity of theory of reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs.

  12. International alcohol control study: pricing data and hours of purchase predict heavier drinking.

    PubMed

    Casswell, Sally; Huckle, Taisia; Wall, Martin; Yeh, Li Chia

    2014-05-01

    This study reports findings from the International Alcohol Control (IAC) study that assesses the impact of alcohol control policy on consumption and policy-related behaviors. Modeled on the International Tobacco Control study that uses longitudinal surveys with comparison between countries, the baseline survey was carried out in New Zealand. This study reports analysis of the purchasing behavior respondents report separately for on- and off-premise outlets, providing validation data for both alcohol consumption and reported prices. New Zealand is a high-income country with an adult per capita alcohol consumption (as of 2011) of 9.5 l. The survey was carried out among a nationally representative sample of drinkers. Interview data on place and time of purchase, amounts purchased, price paid, and consumption (beverage and location specific) was collected. Relationships between policy relevant variables and consumption were modeled taking into account demographic variables. Validation was provided by government data on alcohol available for consumption, aggregate expenditure and prices from the Consumer Price Index. Drinkers paying low prices at on- or off-licensed premises had higher odds of consuming 6+ drinks on a typical occasion, as did drinkers purchasing alcohol at later times. Regarding frequency, drinkers purchasing at later times were more likely to be daily drinkers. Lower price in off licenses but not on licenses predicted daily drinking. The data collected accounted for approximately 96% of alcohol available for consumption and the prices accounted for 98% of aggregate expenditure. Valid survey data were collected to give an accurate picture of alcohol consumption and prices paid by drinkers. Heavy drinkers were more likely to buy cheaper alcohol and purchase at later times; 2 policy issues under discussion in many settings. This analysis suggests the IAC study that has the potential to provide data to contribute to the debate on appropriate policy

  13. OPRM1 genotype interacts with serotonin system dysfunction to predict alcohol-heightened aggression in primates.

    PubMed

    Driscoll, Carlos A; Lindell, Stephen G; Schwandt, Melanie L; Suomi, Stephen J; Higley, J Dee; Heilig, Markus; Barr, Christina S

    2016-08-03

    Although the notion that alcohol promotes violence is widespread, not all individuals are aggressive while intoxicated. Genetic variation could be a contributing factor to individual differences in alcohol-heightened aggression. The present study examines the effects of OPRM1C77G genotype on responses to threat in rhesus macaques under normal conditions and following alcohol administration. Prior studies have shown that a low CSF level of 5-HIAA is a trait marker for individuals prone to escalated aggression. We wanted to examine whether the predictive value for this marker on aggression was moderated by OPRM1 genotype. Animals were administered alcohol (BAC 100-200 mg%), were provoked by a human intruder, and aggressive responses were recorded. Factor analysis was performed to generate aggressive response factors, which were then used as dependent variables for ANOVA, with OPRM1 genotype and CSF 5-HIAA as independent variables. Factor analysis generated three factors ('Threatening', 'Distance Decreasing' and 'High Intensity'). We found that High Intensity aggression was increased among carriers of the OPRM1 G allele, especially among individuals with low CSF levels of 5-HIAA. Aggression in the non-intoxicated state was predicted by 5-HIAA, but not by genotype. This study demonstrates that OPRM1 genotype predicts alcohol-heightened aggression in rhesus macaques with low CSF levels of 5-HIAA. Because OPRM1 variation predicts similar effects on alcohol response and behavior in humans and macaques, this study could suggest a role for OPRM1 genotype in alcohol-heightened aggression in humans. If so, it may be that compounds that block this receptor could reduce alcohol-associated violence in selected patient populations.

  14. [Prediction of histological liver damage in asymptomatic alcoholic patients by means of clinical and laboratory data].

    PubMed

    Iturriaga, H; Hirsch, S; Bunout, D; Díaz, M; Kelly, M; Silva, G; de la Maza, M P; Petermann, M; Ugarte, G

    1993-04-01

    Looking for a noninvasive method to predict liver histologic alterations in alcoholic patients without clinical signs of liver failure, we studied 187 chronic alcoholics recently abstinent, divided in 2 series. In the model series (n = 94) several clinical variables and results of common laboratory tests were confronted to the findings of liver biopsies. These were classified in 3 groups: 1. Normal liver; 2. Moderate alterations; 3. Marked alterations, including alcoholic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Multivariate methods used were logistic regression analysis and a classification and regression tree (CART). Both methods entered gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), aspartate-aminotransferase (AST), weight and age as significant and independent variables. Univariate analysis with GGT and AST at different cutoffs were also performed. To predict the presence of any kind of damage (Groups 2 and 3), CART and AST > 30 IU showed the higher sensitivity, specificity and correct prediction, both in the model and validation series. For prediction of marked liver damage, a score based on logistic regression and GGT > 110 IU had the higher efficiencies. It is concluded that GGT and AST are good markers of alcoholic liver damage and that, using sample cutoffs, histologic diagnosis can be correctly predicted in 80% of recently abstinent asymptomatic alcoholics.

  15. Estimating fatty alcohol contributions to the environment from laundry and personal care products using a market forensics approach.

    PubMed

    Mudge, Stephen M; DeLeo, Paul C

    2014-01-01

    Fatty alcohol-based surfactants are widely used in detergents and personal care products; they are typically disposed of down-the-drain and are degraded or removed during wastewater treatment. Analytical data had shown concentration and profile differences between regions of the United States. Market sales data were purchased relevant to the sampling dates. In combination with analysis of the fatty alcohol profiles in the top selling products, the influent profiles were reconstructed and compared to the whole U.S. sales data. The per capita usage rate for fatty alcohols through these 4000+ top selling products was 4.9 g per day, with 88% arising from liquid laundry detergents and hand dish detergents. This extrapolates to a national usage of 185,000 tonnes per year. There were significant differences in the purchasing habits of the inhabitants across the four regions sampled, although this had minimal impact on the fatty alcohol profile which was dominated by the C12 moiety. The U.S. market was also dominated by petrochemically-sourced chemicals. This market forensics approach using purchased sales data was able to extend our knowledge of the fate of these chemicals without a major (expensive) sampling and analytical campaign.

  16. Maternal risk factors predicting child physical characteristics and dysmorphology in fetal alcohol syndrome and partial fetal alcohol syndrome.

    PubMed

    May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene

    2011-12-01

    Previous research in South Africa revealed very high rates of fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), of 46-89 per 1000 among young children. Maternal and child data from studies in this community summarize the multiple predictors of FAS and partial fetal alcohol syndrome (PFAS). Sequential regression was employed to examine influences on child physical characteristics and dysmorphology from four categories of maternal traits: physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking. Then, a structural equation model (SEM) was constructed to predict influences on child physical characteristics. Individual sequential regressions revealed that maternal drinking measures were the most powerful predictors of a child's physical anomalies (R² = .30, p < .001), followed by maternal demographics (R² = .24, p < .001), maternal physical characteristics (R²=.15, p < .001), and childbearing variables (R² = .06, p < .001). The SEM utilized both individual variables and the four composite categories of maternal traits to predict a set of child physical characteristics, including a total dysmorphology score. As predicted, drinking behavior is a relatively strong predictor of child physical characteristics (β = 0.61, p < .001), even when all other maternal risk variables are included; higher levels of drinking predict child physical anomalies. Overall, the SEM model explains 62% of the variance in child physical anomalies. As expected, drinking variables explain the most variance. But this highly controlled estimation of multiple effects also reveals a significant contribution played by maternal demographics and, to a lesser degree, maternal physical and childbearing variables. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Exploring college students' use of general and alcohol-related social media and their associations with alcohol-related behaviors.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Eric W; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Weintraub Austin, Erica; Reyes-Velázquez, Wanda

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol marketers have increasingly moved their advertising efforts into digital and social media venues. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate associations between students' use of social media, their exposure to alcohol marketing messages through social media, and their alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors. Public and private university students (N = 637) participated November and December 2011 and April 2012. College students completed online surveys to measure their exposure to social and online media generally, as well as their alcohol-related digital media use and alcohol use. Use of social media related to alcohol marketing predicted alcohol consumption and engaging in risky behaviors, whereas the use of social media more generally did not. Students' use of alcohol-related social media-marketing content associates with their problem drinking. Results have implications for alcohol abuse reduction efforts targeted at college students and suggest the importance of considering social, cultural, and cognitive factors in campaign planning and design.

  18. Can routine information from electronic patient records predict a future diagnosis of alcohol use disorder?

    PubMed Central

    Lid, Torgeir Gilje; Eide, Geir Egil; Dalen, Ingvild; Meland, Eivind

    2016-01-01

    Objective To explore whether information regarding potentially alcohol-related health incidents recorded in electronic patient records might aid in earlier identification of alcohol use disorders. Design We extracted potentially alcohol-related information in electronic patient records and tested if alcohol-related diagnoses, prescriptions of codeine, tramadol, ethylmorphine, and benzodiazepines; elevated levels of gamma-glutamyl-transferase (GGT), and mean cell volume (MCV); and new sick leave certificates predicted specific alcohol use disorder. Setting Nine general practitioner surgeries with varying size and stability. Subjects Totally 20,764 patients with active electronic patient record until data gathering and with a history of at least four years without a specific alcohol use disorder after turning 18 years of age. Methods The Cox proportional hazard analysis with time-dependent covariates of potential accumulated risks over the previous four years. Main outcome measures Time from inclusion until the first specific alcohol use disorder, defined by either an alcohol specific diagnostic code or a text fragment documenting an alcohol problem. Results In the unadjusted and adjusted Cox-regression with time-dependent covariates all variables were highly significant with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.25 to 3.50. Addictive drugs, sick leaves, GGT, MCV and International Classification for Primary Care version 2 (ICPC-2), and International Classification of Diseases version 10 (ICD-10) diagnoses were analyzed. Elevated GGT and MCV, ICD-10-diagnoses, and gender demonstrated the highest hazard ratios. Conclusions Many frequent health problems are potential predictors of an increased risk or vulnerability for alcohol use disorders. However, due to the modest hazard ratios, we were unable to establish a clinically useful tool. Key Points Alcohol is potentially relevant for many health problems, but current strategies for identification and intervention in

  19. A short fuse after alcohol: implicit power associations predict aggressiveness after alcohol consumption in young heavy drinkers with limited executive control.

    PubMed

    Wiers, Reinout W; Beckers, Leen; Houben, Katrijn; Hofmann, Wilhelm

    2009-09-01

    This study tested a hypothesis derived from recent dual-process models, which conceptualize behavior as the interplay of associative and Executive Control (EC) processes. This general logic was applied here to the phenomenon of aggressiveness after drinking alcohol. Specifically, we predicted that automatic associations between alcohol and power would predict aggressiveness after drinking in men with relatively weak EC. Participants were 57 heavy drinking male students, who completed two versions of the Implicit Association Test (IAT), one assessing alcohol-power associations (hypothesized critical associations) and one alcohol-arousal associations (control-test), a classical Stroop test (measure of EC) and a number of alcohol-related questionnaires, including four questions on aggressiveness after drinking (dependent variable). As predicted, automatic alcohol-power associations significantly predicted self-reported aggressiveness after drinking in low but not in high EC individuals. As expected, this interaction was specific for alcohol-power associations since it was not found with regard to alcohol-arousal associations. We argue that this finding, together with a recent related findings, indicates that specific instances of "impulsivity" can be conceptualized as the joint outcome of two processes: a general weak EC and an associative process that predicts the impulsive behavior under study when not inhibited by EC processes.

  20. Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths’ drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Methods Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Results Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI = 1.06–3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI = 1.05–2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI = 1.06–2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. Conclusions There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth. PMID:24325264

  1. Predicting problematic alcohol use with the DSM-5 alternative model of personality pathology.

    PubMed

    Creswell, Kasey G; Bachrach, Rachel L; Wright, Aidan G C; Pinto, Anthony; Ansell, Emily

    2016-01-01

    High comorbidity between personality disorders and alcohol use disorders appears related to individual differences in underlying personality dimensions of behavioral undercontrol and affective dysregulation. However, very little is known about how the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th edition; DSM-5) Section III trait model of personality pathology relates to alcohol problems or how the strength of the relationship between personality pathology and alcohol problems changes with age and across gender. The current study examined these questions in a sample of 877 participants using the General Assessment of Personality Disorder to assess general personality dysfunction, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 to measure specific traits, and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) to assess problematic alcohol use. Results demonstrated that general personality pathology (Criterion A) was significantly related to problematic alcohol use after controlling for age and gender effects. Furthermore, 2 of the 5 higher-order personality trait domains (Criterion B), Antagonism and Disinhibition, remained significant predictors of problematic alcohol use after accounting for the influence of general personality pathology; however, general personality pathology no longer predicted hazardous alcohol use once Antagonism and Disinhibition were added into the model. Finally, these 2 specific traits interacted with age, such that Antagonism was a stronger predictor of AUDIT scores among older individuals and Disinhibition was a stronger predictor of alcohol problems among younger individuals. Findings support the general validity of this new personality disorder diagnostic system and suggest important age effects in the relationship between traits and problematic alcohol use. (PsycINFO Database Record

  2. Segmenting and targeting American university students to promote responsible alcohol use: a case for applying social marketing principles.

    PubMed

    Deshpande, Sameer; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn

    2011-10-01

    The current study contributes to the social marketing literature in the American university binge-drinking context in three innovative ways. First, it profiles drinking segments by "values" and "expectancies" sought from behaviors. Second, the study compares segment values and expectancies of two competing behaviors, that is, binge drinking and participation in alternative activities. Third, the study compares the influence of a variety of factors on both behaviors in each segment. Finally, based on these findings and feedback from eight university alcohol prevention experts, appropriate strategies to promote responsible alcohol use for each segment are proposed.

  3. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  4. Does adolescent alcohol and marijuana use predict suppressed growth in psychosocial maturity among male juvenile offenders?

    PubMed Central

    Chassin, Laurie; Dmitrieva, Julia; Modecki, Kathryn; Steinberg, Laurence; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Piquero, Alex R.; Knight, George P.; Losoya, Sandra H.

    2009-01-01

    Multiple theories suggest mechanisms by which the use of alcohol and drugs during adolescence could dampen growth in psychosocial maturity. However, scant empirical evidence exists to support this proposition. The current study tested whether alcohol and marijuana use predicted suppressed growth in psychosocial maturity among a sample of male serious juvenile offenders (n = 1,170) who were followed from ages 15 to 21. Alcohol and marijuana use prospectively predicted lower maturity six months later. Moreover, boys with the greatest increases in marijuana use showed the smallest increases in psychosocial maturity. Finally, heterogeneity in the form of age-related alcohol and marijuana trajectories was related to growth in maturity, such that only boys who decreased their alcohol and marijuana use significantly increased in psychosocial maturity. Taken together, these findings suggest that patterns of elevated alcohol and marijuana use in adolescence may suppress age-typical growth in psychosocial maturity from adolescence to young adulthood, but that effects are not necessarily permanent, because decreasing use is associated with increases in maturity. PMID:20307112

  5. Daily ratings measures of alcohol craving during an inpatient stay define subtypes of alcohol addiction that predict subsequent risk for resumption of drinking.

    PubMed

    Oslin, David W; Cary, Mark; Slaymaker, Valarie; Colleran, Carol; Blow, Frederic C

    2009-08-01

    Both depressive symptoms and alcohol craving have been postulated as important predictors of relapse in patients with addictive disorders. The purpose of this study was to examine the course of affective symptoms and cravings for alcohol use during the initial 25 days of residential treatment for middle aged and older adults addicted to alcohol and the relationship between these symptoms and recovery outcomes. 95 alcohol-dependent subjects were enrolled in this observational study. Participants completed a daily diary of alcohol craving, positive affect, and negative affect during residential treatment. Participants were interviewed 1 and 6 months after discharge to assess clinical symptoms of relapse and functioning. Latent class analysis identified three groups of individuals for each of the three daily measures. For alcohol craving, 17 subjects reported elevated cravings during the entire treatment stay, 37 subjects reported initially elevated but then a slight improvement in craving, and 41 subjects reported relatively low craving from the time of admission to the end of residential treatment. Alcohol craving class was associated with negative affect but not positive affect. Alcohol craving class but not affective class was predictive of time to relapse to any drinking in the 6 months after residential treatment (p<0.05). Results suggest that non-cue induced alcohol craving may define a subtype of alcohol dependence that is less responsive to treatment and may explain heterogeneity in treatment outcomes. These results also may suggest a role for differential treatment programming to address high states of craving for alcohol.

  6. Alcohol Use Predicts Number of Sexual Partners for Female but not Male STI Clinic Patients

    PubMed Central

    Carey, Kate B.; Senn, Theresa E.; Walsh, Jennifer L.; Scott-Sheldon, Lori A. J.; Carey, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that greater alcohol involvement will predict number of sexual partners to a greater extent for women than for men, and that the hypothesized sex-specific, alcohol—sexual partner associations will hold when controlling for alternative sex-linked explanations (i.e., depression and drug use). We recruited 508 patients (46% female, 67% African American) from a public STI clinic. Participants reported number of sexual partners, drinks per week, maximum drinks per day, frequency of heavy drinking; they also completed the AUDIT-C and a measure of alcohol problems. As expected, men reported more drinking and sexual partners. Also as expected, the association between alcohol use and number of partners was significant for women but not for men, and these associations were not explained by drug use or depression. A comprehensive prevention strategy for women attending STI clinics might include alcohol use reduction. PMID:26310596

  7. Can human rights standards help protect children and youth from the detrimental impact of alcohol beverage marketing and promotional activities?

    PubMed

    Chapman, Audrey R

    2017-01-01

    The alcohol industry in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region promotes demand for alcohol products actively through a number of channels, including advertising and sponsorship of sports and other events. This paper evaluates whether human rights instruments that Latin American countries have ratified can be used to limit children's exposure to alcohol advertising and promotion. A review was conducted of the text of, and interpretative documents related to, a series of international and regional human rights instruments ratified by most countries in the LAC region that enumerate the right to health. The Convention on the Rights of the Child has the most relevant provisions to protect children and youth from alcohol promotion and advertising. Related interpretive documents by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child affirm that corporations hold duties to respect and protect children's right to health. Human rights norms and law can be used to regulate or eliminate alcohol beverage marketing and promotional activities in the Latin American region. The paper recommends developing a human rights based Framework Convention on Alcohol Control to provide guidance. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. International codes and agreements to restrict the promotion of harmful products can hold lessons for the control of alcohol marketing.

    PubMed

    Landon, Jane; Lobstein, Tim; Godfrey, Fiona; Johns, Paula; Brookes, Chris; Jernigan, David

    2017-01-01

    Background and aims The 2011 UN Summit on Non-Communicable Disease failed to call for global action on alcohol marketing despite calls in the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases 2013-20 to restrict or ban alcohol advertising. In this paper we ask what it might take to match the global approach to tobacco enshrined in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), and suggest that public health advocates can learn from the development of the FCTC and the Code of Marketing on infant formula milks and the recent recommendations on restricting food marketing to children. Methods Narrative review of qualitative accounts of the processes that created and monitor existing codes and treaties to restrict the marketing of consumer products, specifically breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco. Findings The development of treaties and codes for market restrictions include: (i) evidence of a public health crisis; (ii) the cost of inaction; (iii) civil society advocacy; (iv) the building of capacity; (v) the management of conflicting interests in policy development; and (vi) the need to consider monitoring and accountability to ensure compliance. Conclusion International public health treaties and codes provide an umbrella under which national governments can strengthen their own legislation, assisted by technical support from international agencies and non-governmental organizations. Three examples of international agreements, those for breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco, can provide lessons for the public health community to make progress on alcohol controls. Lessons include stronger alliances of advocates and health professionals and better tools and capacity to monitor and report current marketing practices and trends. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  9. Polygenic Scores Predict Alcohol Problems in an Independent Sample and Show Moderation by the Environment

    PubMed Central

    Salvatore, Jessica E.; Aliev, Fazil; Edwards, Alexis C.; Evans, David M.; Macleod, John; Hickman, Matthew; Lewis, Glyn; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Loukola, Anu; Korhonen, Tellervo; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J.; Kaprio, Jaakko; Dick, Danielle M.

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems—derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female)—predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14) in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female). We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance) moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07–0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01). Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b), p-values (p), and percent of variance (R2) accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively). Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes. PMID:24727307

  10. Predicting the future relapse of alcohol-dependent patients from structural and functional brain images.

    PubMed

    Seo, Sambu; Mohr, Johannes; Beck, Anne; Wüstenberg, Torsten; Heinz, Andreas; Obermayer, Klaus

    2015-11-01

    In alcohol dependence, individual prediction of treatment outcome based on neuroimaging endophenotypes can help to tailor individual therapeutic offers to patients depending on their relapse risk. We built a prediction model for prospective relapse of alcohol-dependent patients that combines structural and functional brain images derived from an experiment in which 46 subjects were exposed to alcohol-related cues. The patient group had been subdivided post hoc regarding relapse behavior defined as a consumption of more than 60 g alcohol for male or more than 40 g alcohol for female patients on one occasion during the 3-month assessment period (16 abstainers and 30 relapsers). Naïve Bayes, support vector machines and learning vector quantization were used to infer prediction models for relapse based on the mean and maximum values of gray matter volume and brain responses on alcohol-related cues within a priori defined regions of interest. Model performance was estimated by leave-one-out cross-validation. Learning vector quantization yielded the model with the highest balanced accuracy (79.4 percent, p < 0.0001; 90 percent sensitivity, 68.8 percent specificity). The most informative individual predictors were functional brain activation features in the right and left ventral tegmental areas and the right ventral striatum, as well as gray matter volume features in left orbitofrontal cortex and right medial prefrontal cortex. In contrast, the best pure clinical model reached only chance-level accuracy (61.3 percent). Our results indicate that an individual prediction of future relapse from imaging measurement outperforms prediction from clinical measurements. The approach may help to target specific interventions at different risk groups.

  11. Polygenic scores predict alcohol problems in an independent sample and show moderation by the environment.

    PubMed

    Salvatore, Jessica E; Aliev, Fazil; Edwards, Alexis C; Evans, David M; Macleod, John; Hickman, Matthew; Lewis, Glyn; Kendler, Kenneth S; Loukola, Anu; Korhonen, Tellervo; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J; Kaprio, Jaakko; Dick, Danielle M

    2014-04-10

    Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems-derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female)-predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14) in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female). We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance) moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07-0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01). Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b), p-values (p), and percent of variance (R2) accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively). Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes.

  12. A 14-year retrospective maternal report of alcohol consumption in pregnancy predicts pregnancy and teen outcomes.

    PubMed

    Hannigan, John H; Chiodo, Lisa M; Sokol, Robert J; Janisse, James; Ager, Joel W; Greenwald, Mark K; Delaney-Black, Virginia

    2010-01-01

    Detecting patterns of maternal drinking that place fetuses at risk for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs) is critical to diagnosis, treatment, and prevention but is challenging because information on antenatal drinking collected during pregnancy is often insufficient or lacking. Although retrospective assessments have been considered less favored by many researchers due to presumed poor reliability, this perception may be inaccurate because of reduced maternal denial and/or distortion. The present study hypothesized that fetal alcohol exposure, as assessed retrospectively during child adolescence, would be related significantly to prior measures of maternal drinking and would predict alcohol-related behavioral problems in teens better than antenatal measures of maternal alcohol consumption. Drinking was assessed during pregnancy, and retrospectively about the same pregnancy, at a 14-year follow-up in 288 African-American women using well-validated semistructured interviews. Regression analysis examined the predictive validity of both drinking assessments on pregnancy outcomes and on teacher-reported teen behavior outcomes. Retrospective maternal self-reported drinking assessed 14 years postpartum was significantly higher than antenatal reports of consumption. Retrospective report identified 10.8 times more women as risk drinkers (≥ one drink per day) than the antenatal report. Antenatal and retrospective reports were moderately correlated and both were correlated with the Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test. Self-reported alcohol consumption during pregnancy based on retrospective report identified significantly more teens exposed prenatally to at-risk alcohol levels than antenatal, in-pregnancy reports. Retrospective report predicted more teen behavior problems (e.g., attention problems and externalizing behaviors) than the antenatal report. Antenatal report predicted younger gestational age at birth and retrospective report predicted smaller birth size

  13. Six-Month Changes in Spirituality and Religiousness in Alcoholics Predict Drinking Outcomes at Nine Months*

    PubMed Central

    Robinson, Elizabeth A. R.; Krentzman, Amy R.; Webb, Jon R.; Brower, Kirk J.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Although spiritual change is hypothesized to contribute to recovery from alcohol dependence, few studies have used prospective data to investigate this hypothesis. Prior studies have also been limited to treatment-seeking and Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) samples. This study included alcohol-dependent individuals, both in treatment and not, to investigate the effect of spiritual and religious (SR) change on subsequent drinking outcomes, independent of AA involvement. Method: Alcoholics (N = 364) were recruited for a panel study from two abstinence-based treatment centers, a moderation drinking program, and untreated individuals from the local community. Quantitative measures of SR change between baseline and 6 months were used to predict 9-month drinking outcomes, controlling for baseline drinking and AA involvement. Results: Significant 6-month changes in 8 of 12 SR measures were found, which included private SR practices, beliefs, daily spiritual experiences, three measures of forgiveness, negative religious coping, and purpose in life. Increases in private SR practices and forgiveness of self were the strongest predictors of improvements in drinking outcomes. Changes in daily spiritual experiences, purpose in life, a general measure of forgiveness, and negative religious coping also predicted favorable drinking outcomes. Conclusions: SR change predicted good drinking outcomes in alcoholics, even when controlling for AA involvement. SR variables, broadly defined, deserve attention in fostering change even among those who do not affiliate with AA or religious institutions. Last, future research should include SR variables, particularly various types of forgiveness, given the strong effects found for forgiveness of self. PMID:21683048

  14. The "Prediction of Alcohol Withdrawal Severity Scale" (PAWSS): systematic literature review and pilot study of a new scale for the prediction of complicated alcohol withdrawal syndrome.

    PubMed

    Maldonado, José R; Sher, Yelizaveta; Ashouri, Judith F; Hills-Evans, Kelsey; Swendsen, Heavenly; Lolak, Sermsak; Miller, Anne Catherine

    2014-06-01

    To date, no screening tools for alcohol withdrawal syndromes (AWS) have been validated in the medically ill. Although several tools quantify the severity of AWS (e.g., Clinical Institute Withdrawal Assessment for Alcohol [CIWA]), none identify subjects at risk of AWS, thus missing the opportunity for timely prophylaxis. Moreover, there are no validated tools for the prediction of complicated (i.e., moderate to severe) AWS in the medically ill. Our goals were (1) to conduct a systematic review of the published literature on AWS to identify clinical factors associated with the development of AWS, (2) to use the identified factors to develop a tool for the prediction of alcohol withdrawal among patients at risk, and (3) to conduct a pilot study to assess the validity of the tool. For the creation of the Prediction of Alcohol Withdrawal Severity Scale (PAWSS), we conducted a systematic literature search using PRISMA (preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses) guidelines for clinical factors associated with the development of AWS, using PubMed, PsychInfo, MEDLINE, and Cochrane Databases. Eligibility criteria included: (i) manuscripts dealing with human subjects, age 18 years or older, (ii) manuscripts directly addressing descriptions of AWS or its predisposing factors, including case reports, naturalistic case descriptions, and all types of clinical trials (e.g., randomized, single-blind, or open label studies), (iii) manuscripts describing characteristics of alcohol use disorder (AUD), and (iv) manuscripts dealing with animal data (which were considered only if they directly dealt with variables described in humans). Obtained data were used to develop the Prediction of Alcohol Withdrawal Severity Scale, in order to assist in the identification of patients at risk for complicated AWS. A pilot study was conducted to assess the new tool's psychometric qualities on patients admitted to a general inpatient medicine unit over a 2-week period, who

  15. Do child's psychosocial functioning, and parent and family characteristics predict early alcohol use? The TRAILS Study.

    PubMed

    Visser, Leenke; de Winter, Andrea F; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Verhulst, Frank C; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

    2015-02-01

    Given the negative consequences of early alcohol use for health and social functioning, it is essential to detect children at risk of early drinking. The aim of this study is to determine predictors of early alcohol use that can easily be detected in Preventive Child Healthcare (PCH). We obtained data from the first two waves on 1261 Dutch adolescents who participated in TRAILS (TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey) at ages 10-14 years and from the PCH records regarding ages 4-10 years. Early adolescence alcohol use (age 10-14 years) was defined as alcohol use at least once at ages 10-12 years (wave 1) and at least once in the previous 4 weeks at ages 12-14 years (wave 2). Predictors of early alcohol use concerned parent and teacher reports at wave 1 and PCH registrations, regarding the child's psychosocial functioning, and parental and socio-demographic characteristics. A total of 17.2% of the adolescents reported early alcohol use. Predictors of early alcohol use were teacher-reported aggressive behaviour [odds ratios (OR); 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.86; 1.11-3.11], being a boy (OR 1.80, 95%-CI 1.31-2.56), being a non-immigrant (OR 2.31, 95%CI 1.05-5.09), and low and middle educational level of the father (OR 1.71, 95%CI 1.12-2.62 and OR 1.77, 95%CI 1.16-2.70, respectively), mutually adjusted. A limited set of factors was predictive for early alcohol use. Use of this set may improve the detection of early adolescence alcohol use in PCH. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  16. Alcohol

    MedlinePlus

    ... Parents for Kids for Teens Search Teens Home Body Mind Sexual Health Food & Fitness Diseases & Conditions Infections Q&A School & Jobs Drugs & Alcohol Staying Safe Recipes En Español Making a Change – ... this article? Getting the Facts What Is Alcohol? How Does It Affect the Body? Why Do Teens Drink? Why Shouldn't I ...

  17. Drinking Motives in the Prospective Prediction of Unique Alcohol-Related Consequences in College Students

    PubMed Central

    Merrill, Jennifer E.; Wardell, Jeffrey D.; Read, Jennifer P.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Although college students experience a diverse range of alcohol consequences, most studies focus on global, rather than distinct, consequence types. One predictor of unique consequences—drinking motives—has been studied only cross-sectionally. We aimed to examine the prediction of unique alcohol consequence domains (social/interpersonal, academic/occupational, risky behavior, impaired control, poor self-care, diminished self-perception, blackout drinking, and physiological dependence) by coping and enhancement motives over the course of one year. We hypothesized that coping motives would directly predict and that enhancement motives would indirectly (through alcohol use) predict unique consequences. Method: Web surveys were administered to a sample of college students (n = 552, 62% female) at the beginning of the fall semester for 2 consecutive academic years. Structural equation modeling was used to test direct and indirect paths from motives to consequences. Results: The data supported hypothesized direct, prospective paths from coping motives to several alcohol consequences (impaired control, diminished self-perception, poor self-care, risky behaviors, academic/occupational, and physiological dependence). These associations were not mediated by alcohol consumption. Enhancement motives were indirectly associated with all eight consequence domains by way of increased alcohol use at follow-up. Models were invariant across gender, year in school, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress. Conclusions: Findings suggest that whether motives act as a final common pathway to problem drinking may depend on which motives and which drinking outcomes are examined. As coping motives demonstrate a direct link to unique alcohol problem types over time, individuals endorsing these motives may need to be prioritized for intervention. PMID:24411801

  18. A clustered randomised trial examining the effect of social marketing and community mobilisation on the age of uptake and levels of alcohol consumption by Australian adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Rowland, Bosco; Toumbourou, John Winston; Osborn, Amber; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Williams, Joanne; Leslie, Eva

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Throughout the world, alcohol consumption is common among adolescents. Adolescent alcohol use and misuse have prognostic significance for several adverse long-term outcomes, including alcohol problems, alcohol dependence, school disengagement and illicit drug use. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether randomisation to a community mobilisation and social marketing intervention reduces the proportion of adolescents who initiate alcohol use before the Australian legal age of 18, and the frequency and amount of underage adolescent alcohol consumption. Method and analysis The study comprises 14 communities matched with 14 non-contiguous communities on socioeconomic status (SES), location and size. One of each pair was randomly allocated to the intervention. Baseline levels of adolescent alcohol use were estimated through school surveys initiated in 2006 (N=8500). Community mobilisation and social marketing interventions were initiated in 2011 to reduce underage alcohol supply and demand. The setting is communities in three Australian states (Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia). Students (N=2576) will complete school surveys in year 8 in 2013 (average age 12). Primary outcomes: (1) lifetime initiation and (2) monthly frequency of alcohol use. Reports of social marketing and family and community alcohol supply sources will also be assessed. Point estimates with 95% CIs will be compared for student alcohol use in intervention and control communities. Changes from 2006 to 2013 will be examined; multilevel modelling will assess whether random assignment of communities to the intervention reduced 2013 alcohol use, after accounting for community level differences. Analyses will also assess whether exposure to social marketing activities increased the intervention target of reducing alcohol supply by parents and community members. Trial registration ACTRN12612000384853. PMID:23355674

  19. A clustered randomised trial examining the effect of social marketing and community mobilisation on the age of uptake and levels of alcohol consumption by Australian adolescents.

    PubMed

    Rowland, Bosco; Toumbourou, John Winston; Osborn, Amber; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Williams, Joanne; Leslie, Eva

    2013-01-24

    Throughout the world, alcohol consumption is common among adolescents. Adolescent alcohol use and misuse have prognostic significance for several adverse long-term outcomes, including alcohol problems, alcohol dependence, school disengagement and illicit drug use. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether randomisation to a community mobilisation and social marketing intervention reduces the proportion of adolescents who initiate alcohol use before the Australian legal age of 18, and the frequency and amount of underage adolescent alcohol consumption. The study comprises 14 communities matched with 14 non-contiguous communities on socioeconomic status (SES), location and size. One of each pair was randomly allocated to the intervention. Baseline levels of adolescent alcohol use were estimated through school surveys initiated in 2006 (N=8500). Community mobilisation and social marketing interventions were initiated in 2011 to reduce underage alcohol supply and demand. The setting is communities in three Australian states (Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia). Students (N=2576) will complete school surveys in year 8 in 2013 (average age 12). (1) lifetime initiation and (2) monthly frequency of alcohol use. Reports of social marketing and family and community alcohol supply sources will also be assessed. Point estimates with 95% CIs will be compared for student alcohol use in intervention and control communities. Changes from 2006 to 2013 will be examined; multilevel modelling will assess whether random assignment of communities to the intervention reduced 2013 alcohol use, after accounting for community level differences. Analyses will also assess whether exposure to social marketing activities increased the intervention target of reducing alcohol supply by parents and community members. ACTRN12612000384853.

  20. Both parental psychopathology and prenatal maternal alcohol dependency can predict the behavioral phenotype in children.

    PubMed

    Staroselsky, Arthur; Fantus, Ellen; Sussman, Reuven; Sandor, Paul; Koren, Gideon; Nulman, Irena

    2009-01-01

    To identify whether a child's behavior phenotype can be predicted by parental psychopathology and/or prenatal maternal alcohol dependency by using the Child Behavior List (CBCL) as a screening tool. A retrospective cohort of four non-exclusive groups of children (aged 8-15 years) was studied: (i) children exposed to alcohol in utero (n = 25); (ii) children not exposed to alcohol in utero (n = 46); (iii) children exposed to parental psychopathology (n = 37); (iv) children not exposed to parental psychopathology (n = 34). To distinguish between the effects of alcohol and parental psychopathology, the children were further subdivided into groups with alcohol exposure in utero and parental psychopathology (n = 23), and psychopathology without alchohol exposure (n = 14). Each child was assessed with the CBCL. Subscale scores and selected subscale items were compared between the groups using t-tests and regression analysis. Children exposed to alcohol in utero scored significantly lower than unexposed children on school competency (p = 0.015). They were more likely to attend special classes (p = 0.048), repeat a grade (p = 0.011), and display more disobedience (p = 0.039) and vandalism (p = 0.033). For special classes and disobedience at school, gender proved to be a significant predictor, while maternal alcohol dependency was a significant predictor of vandalism and repeated grades. Children with parental psychopathology differed from children without parental psychopathology in the anxious/depressed (p = 0.04), social problems (p = 0.004), and attention problems (p = 0.04) subscales. The subscale items that were significantly different between the groups were nervousness (p = 0.002), self-consciousness (p = 0.019), feelings of worthlessness (p = 0.041), loneliness (p = 0.005), and difficulty with concentration (p = 0.02). Parental psychopathology was a significant predictor of all five items. Age and gender, however, were significant predictors only of difficulty with

  1. Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Eddie Chi-Man; Wang, Ziyou

    2015-05-01

    Academia takes interest in cyclicality of real estate market. Compared to various findings on housing cycles, no literature takes insight into the cycles of securitized property markets. To address the issue, a nonlinear model is developed to probe into the characteristics of cycles in global markets (US, UK, Australia, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) over the last 23 years. The findings suggest that (a) cointegrating relationships influence the six markets in the long term and become stronger during bullish markets. (b) The short-term dynamics of each market is more likely to have a regime-switching structure. (c) The cyclical pattern shows differences between securitized property and housing markets, as well as between securitized property and general stock markets. Meanwhile, the cyclical pattern in developed markets is also different from that in developing markets. (d) The duration dependence shows a weak effect of the boom on predicting the occurrence of the upcoming bust. Instead, the magnitude of boom growth plays a significant role in predicting the duration of following bust. (e) The asymmetric analysis brings forward the "paralleling effect" which indicates that the asymmetry in returns is parallel with the movements of r. The methodology shall serve in providing detailed implications on the characters of cycle and duration forecast in securitized property markets for investors and governments.

  2. Predictive fuzzy reasoning method for time series stock market data mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khokhar, Rashid H.; Md Sap, Mohd Noor

    2005-03-01

    Data mining is able to uncover hidden patterns and predict future trends and behaviors in financial markets. In this research we approach quantitative time series stock selection as a data mining problem. We present another modification of extraction of weighted fuzzy production rules (WFPRs) from fuzzy decision tree by using proposed similarity-based fuzzy reasoning method called predictive reasoning (PR) method. In proposed predictive reasoning method weight parameter can be assigned to each proposition in the antecedent of a fuzzy production rule (FPR) and certainty factor (CF) to each rule. Certainty factors are calculated by using some important variables like effect of other companies, effect of other local stock market, effect of overall world situation, and effect of political situation from stock market. The predictive FDT has been tested using three data sets including KLSE, NYSE and LSE. The experimental results show that WFPRs rules have high learning accuracy and also better predictive accuracy of stock market time series data.

  3. Prediction of Long-Term Alcohol Use, Drug Use, and Criminality among Inhalant Users.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McBride, Anthony A.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    At 4-year followup on 110 Mexican-American adolescents in a drug abuse prevention program, association with deviant peers was strongly predictive of alcohol and drug use and criminality, whereas parental influences were minor predictors. Low school satisfaction was related to greater drug use, particularly for females. (Author/SV)

  4. The evolution of U.S. temperance movements since repeal: a comparison of two campaigns to control alcoholic beverage marketing, 1950s and 1980s.

    PubMed

    Pennock, Penny

    2005-01-01

    This paper compares the politics of a failed religious movement to ban alcohol advertising in the 1950s with the politics of a more secular, and partially successful, movement to regulate alcohol marketing in the 1970s and 1980s. Although the contexts of the two marketing control movements were quite different, the continuities were equally striking. Both employed arguments about youth, social order, and the power of mass media.

  5. Perceived sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies and behavior predict substance-related sexual revictimization.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B; Denardi, Kathleen A; Walker, Dave P

    2013-05-01

    Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Factors predictive of alcohol use during pregnancy in three rural states

    PubMed Central

    Leonardson, Gary R; Loudenburg, Roland; Struck, Judy

    2007-01-01

    Background A substance use screening instrument was used to determine factors predictive of drinking during pregnancy. Alcohol consumption during pregnancy can lead to negative birth outcomes. Methods The participants (n = 4,828) for the study were sampled from pregnant women attending prenatal clinics in Montana, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Clinic sites for the administration of the screening instrument were selected in each state, based on geographic and known population characteristics. Univariate and multivariate statistical procedures were used to determine factors predictive of drinking during pregnancy. Results Women who drank tended to: be single, be between 21–25 years old, have had fewer children, have had abortions, and be unemployed. Demographic factors that were protective of drinking when pregnant were married and full-time housewife status. Other variables associated with maternal alcohol use were: past sexual abuse, current or past physical abuse, tobacco use, other drug use, lived with substance users, and had mates who were substance users. Other contributing factors for alcohol use included: feeling sad, believing that drinking any amount of alcohol while pregnant was acceptable, had been in treatment, could use treatment now, and were able to hold four or more drinks. Conclusion Because drinking rates were high and factors correlated with drinking are known, alcohol screening for this population is essential. PMID:17291346

  7. Perceived Sexual Control, Sex-Related Alcohol Expectancies and Behavior Predict Substance-Related Sexual Revictimization

    PubMed Central

    Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B.; DeNardi, Kathleen A.; Walker, Dave P.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Methods Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. Results The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Conclusions Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:23312991

  8. Prediction of treatment outcome in a clinical sample of problem drinkers: self-efficacy, alcohol expectancies, and readiness to change.

    PubMed

    Demmel, Ralf; Beck, Beate; Lammers, André

    2003-10-15

    Cognitive processes related to client motivation are important mediators of alcoholism treatment outcome. The present study aimed to expand previous research on client motivation and treatment outcome by establishing the predictive utility of self-efficacy, alcohol expectancies, and readiness to change in a sample of alcohol-dependent inpatients (N = 83). Treatment outcome was assessed three months following discharge. According to self-reported alcohol use, 22 clients were classified as abstainers and 41 clients as relapsers. Twenty participants were lost to follow-up. Readiness to change and anticipated reinforcement from alcohol predicted abstinence at follow-up. Client motivation was unrelated to both frequency and quantity of alcohol use. In accordance with social learning theory, self-efficacy was inversely correlated with alcohol expectancies. The results of the present study suggest that once abstinence has been violated factors other than pretreatment motivation determine drinking behavior.

  9. The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyne Farmer, J.; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.

    2005-02-01

    Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. double auction market | market microstructure | agent-based models

  10. Alcohol

    MedlinePlus

    ... created when grains, fruits, or vegetables are fermented . Fermentation is a process that uses yeast or bacteria ... change the sugars in the food into alcohol. Fermentation is used to produce many necessary items — everything ...

  11. Alcohol.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schibeci, Renato

    1996-01-01

    Describes the manufacturing of ethanol, the effects of ethanol on the body, the composition of alcoholic drinks, and some properties of ethanol. Presents some classroom experiments using ethanol. (JRH)

  12. Alcohol.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schibeci, Renato

    1996-01-01

    Describes the manufacturing of ethanol, the effects of ethanol on the body, the composition of alcoholic drinks, and some properties of ethanol. Presents some classroom experiments using ethanol. (JRH)

  13. Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India.

    PubMed

    Hiremath, Gourishankar S; Kumari, Jyoti

    2014-01-01

    This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency. G14; G12; C12.

  14. Differential prediction of alcohol use and problems: the role of biopsychological and social-environmental variables.

    PubMed

    Simons, Jeffrey S

    2003-01-01

    This study examined the differential prediction of alcohol use and problems by biopsychological (i.e., affective and cognitive variables) and social-environmental (i.e., social norms) variables. Undergraduate students (N = 231) were assessed twice separated by a 30-day interval. Time 1 impulsivity, affect lability, social norms, and perceived conflict between personal strivings and alcohol use were each significant predictors of alcohol use-related problems at Time 2 (T2). Structural equation models indicated that impulsivity and affect lability were related directly with use-related problems, while social norms and use-strivings conflict were related indirectly with use-related problems (mediated by use frequency). Impulsivity moderated the T2 use to use-related problems relationship. Use frequency was associated more strongly with use-related problems among more impulsive participants.

  15. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  16. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model

    PubMed Central

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders’ expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day’s price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately. PMID:27196055

  17. The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

    2016-09-01

    This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

  18. Patient and practitioner characteristics predict brief alcohol intervention in primary care.

    PubMed Central

    Kaner, E F; Heather, N; Brodie, J; Lock, C A; McAvoy, B R

    2001-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of an evidence-based health care intervention depends on it being delivered consistently to appropriate patients. Brief alcohol intervention is known to be effective at reducing excessive drinking and its concomitant health and social problems. However, a recent implementation trial reported partial delivery of brief alcohol intervention by general practitioners (GPs) which is likely to have reduced its impact. AIM: To investigate patient-practitioner characteristics influencing brief alcohol intervention in primary care. DESIGN OF STUDY: Cross-sectional analysis of 12,814 completed Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) screening questionnaires. SETTING: Eighty-four GPs who had implemented a brief alcohol intervention programme in a previous trial based in the Northeast of England. METHOD: GPs were requested to screen all adults (aged over 16 years) presenting to their surgery and follow a structured protocol to give a brief intervention (five minutes of advice plus an information booklet) to all 'risk' drinkers. Anonymized carbon copies of the screening questionnaire were collected from all practices after a three-month implementation period. RESULTS: Although AUDIT identified 4080 'risk' drinkers, only 2043 (50%) received brief intervention. Risk drinkers that were most likely to receive brief intervention were males (58%), unemployed (61%), and technically-trained patients (55%). Risk drinkers that were least likely to receive brief intervention were females (44%), students (38%), and university educated patients (46%). Logistic regression modelling showed that patients' risk status was the most influential predictor of brief intervention. Also, GPs' experience of relevant training and longer average practice consultations predicted brief intervention. However, personal characteristics relating to patients and GPs also predicted brief intervention in routine practice. CONCLUSION: Interpersonal factors relating to

  19. Antibubble and prediction of China's stock market and real-estate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

    2004-06-01

    We show that the Chinese stock markets are quite different and decoupled from Western markets (which include Tokyo). We document a well-developed log-periodic power-law antibubble in China's stock market, which started in August 2001. We argue that the current stock market antibubble is sustained by a contemporary active unsustainable real-estate bubble in China. The characteristic parameters of the antibubble have exhibited remarkable stability over one year (October 2002-October 2003). Many tests, including predictability over different horizons and time periods, confirm the high significance of the antibubble detection. Based on an analysis including data up to 2003/10/28, we have predicted that the Chinese stock market will stop its negative trend around the end of 2003 and start going up, appreciating by at least 25% in the following 6 months. We present a partial assessment of this prediction at the time of revision of this manuscript (early January 2004). Notwithstanding the immature nature of the Chinese equity market and the strong influence of government policy, we have found maybe even stronger imprints of herding than in other mature markets. This is maybe due indeed to the immaturity of the Chinese market which seems to attract short-term investors more interested in fast gains than in long-term investments, thus promoting speculative herding.

  20. Use of marketing to disseminate brief alcohol intervention to general practitioners: promoting health care interventions to health promoters.

    PubMed

    Lock, C A; Kaner, E F

    2000-11-01

    Health research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. Thus, a dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. Social marketing techniques can be utilized to aid successful dissemination of research findings and to speed the process by which new information reaches practice. Principles of social marketing include manipulating the marketing mix of product, price, place and promotion. This paper describes the development of a marketing approach and the outcomes from a trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of manipulating promotional strategies to disseminate actively a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). The promotional strategies consisted of postal marketing, telemarketing and personal marketing. The study took place in general practices across the Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, one per practice, 321 (52%) took the programme and of those available to use it for 3 months (315), 128 (41%) actively considered doing so, 73 (23%) actually went on to use it. Analysis of the specific impact of the three different promotional strategies revealed that while personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination and implementation strategy, telemarketing was more cost-effective. The findings of our work show that using a marketing approach is promising for conveying research findings to GPs and in particular a focus on promotional strategies can facilitate high levels of uptake and consideration in this target group.

  1. Alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction predict motivation to change among mandated college students.

    PubMed

    Diulio, Andrea R; Cero, Ian; Witte, Tracy K; Correia, Christopher J

    2014-04-01

    The present study investigated the role specific types of alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction play in predicting motivation to change alcohol use. Participants were 548 college students mandated to complete a brief intervention following an alcohol-related policy violation. Using hierarchical multiple regression, we tested for the presence of interaction and quadratic effects on baseline data collected prior to the intervention. A significant interaction indicated that the relationship between a respondent's personal consequences and his/her motivation to change differs depending upon the level of concurrent social consequences. Additionally quadratic effects for abuse/dependence symptoms and life satisfaction were found. The quadratic probes suggest that abuse/dependence symptoms and poor life satisfaction are both positively associated with motivation to change for a majority of the sample; however, the nature of these relationships changes for participants with more extreme scores. Results support the utility of using a multidimensional measure of alcohol related problems and assessing non-linear relationships when assessing predictors of motivation to change. The results also suggest that the best strategies for increasing motivation may vary depending on the types of alcohol-related problems and level of life satisfaction the student is experiencing and highlight potential directions for future research.

  2. Predicting functional outcomes among college drinkers: reliability and predictive validity of the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire.

    PubMed

    Read, Jennifer P; Merrill, Jennifer E; Kahler, Christopher W; Strong, David R

    2007-11-01

    Heavy drinking and associated consequences are widespread among U.S. college students. Recently, Read et al. (Read, J. P., Kahler, C. W., Strong, D., & Colder, C. R. (2006). Development and preliminary validation of the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 67, 169-178) developed the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire (YAACQ) to assess the broad range of consequences that may result from heavy drinking in the college milieu. In the present study, we sought to add to the psychometric validation of this measure by employing a prospective design to examine the test-retest reliability, concurrent validity, and predictive validity of the YAACQ. We also sought to examine the utility of the YAACQ administered early in the semester in the prediction of functional outcomes later in the semester, including the persistence of heavy drinking, and academic functioning. Ninety-two college students (48 females) completed a self-report assessment battery during the first weeks of the Fall semester, and approximately one week later. Additionally, 64 subjects (37 females) participated at an optional third time point at the end of the semester. Overall, the YAACQ demonstrated strong internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and concurrent and predictive validity. YAACQ scores also were predictive of both drinking frequency, and "binge" drinking frequency. YAACQ total scores at baseline were an early indicator of academic performance later in the semester, with greater number of total consequences experienced being negatively associated with end-of-semester grade point average. Specific YAACQ subscale scores (Impaired Control, Dependence Symptoms, Blackout Drinking) showed unique prediction of persistent drinking and academic outcomes.

  3. The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, J. Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.

    2005-01-01

    Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. PMID:15687505

  4. The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets.

    PubMed

    Farmer, J Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I

    2005-02-08

    Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations.

  5. If You Feed Them, Will They Come? The Use of Social Marketing to Increase Interest in Attending a College Alcohol Program

    PubMed Central

    Palmer, Rebekka S.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Larimer, Mary E.

    2010-01-01

    The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students’ interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires included measures assessing demographic information, alcohol use and negative consequences, and interest in attending an alcohol program in response to exposure to 1 of 12 systematically varied advertisements. The authors found that approximately 20% of participants across all ad types indicated some level of interest in attending the alcohol program. Students who use alcohol reported more interest in attending when an informational message was used. Of the participants offered food, 41.9% indicated the food offered in the advertisement impacted their interest in attending. Results suggest market segmentation plays a role in developing effective advertisements to recruit different groups of students based on their reported drinking behavior. PMID:16889315

  6. If you feed them, will they come? The use of social marketing to increase interest in attending a college alcohol program.

    PubMed

    Palmer, Rebekka S; Kilmer, Jason R; Larimer, Mary E

    2006-01-01

    The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires included measures assessing demographic information, alcohol use and negative consequences, and interest in attending an alcohol program in response to exposure to 1 of 12 systematically varied advertisements. The authors found that approximately 20% of participants across all ad types indicated some level of interest in attending the alcohol program. Students who use alcohol reported more interest in attending when an informational message was used. Of the participants offered food, 41.9% indicated the food offered in the advertisement impacted their interest in attending. Results suggest market segmentation plays a role in developing effective advertisements to recruit different groups of students based on their reported drinking behavior.

  7. Looking into the glass: glassware as an alcohol marketing tool, and the implications for policy.

    PubMed

    Stead, Martine; Angus, Kathryn; Macdonald, Laura; Bauld, Linda

    2014-01-01

    To examine how glassware functions as a marketing tool. Content analysis of trade journals. Glassware is used as an integral part of marketing activity to recruit customers, revive brands, build profits and increase consumption. Glassware should be subject to the same control as other forms of marketing. Glasses could be re-engineered to promote safer drinking.

  8. Predicting natural resolution of alcohol-related problems: a prospective behavioral economic analysis.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Jalie A; Vuchinich, Rudy E; Rippens, Paula D

    2002-08-01

    This study investigated whether the relative allocation of discretionary monetary expenditures to alcoholic beverages versus savings (presumed to reflect relative preferences for immediate vs. delayed rewards) before quitting abusive drinking predicted natural resolution among untreated problem drinkers. Drinking, life events, income, and expenditures were assessed for the year before resolution and again 1 and 2 years later (N = 50). Compared with those who relapsed, participants who remained resolved at 2 years reported proportionally more pre-resolution discretionary expenditures on savings and less on alcohol. Income and expenditures were similar across groups. The findings support the predictive utility of this functional index of relative reward preferences that operate over variable time horizons and suggest that temporal discounting is an important process in addictive behavior change.

  9. The Role of Peers and Parents in Predicting Alcohol Consumption among Chilean Youth

    PubMed Central

    Han, Yoonsun; Grogan-Kaylor, Andrew; Delva, Jorge; Castillo, Marcela

    2011-01-01

    This study estimated marginal associations of parent- and peer-related measures to examine the different patterns of lifetime ever-use and frequency of alcohol consumption among adolescents in Santiago, Chile (N=918). Probit and negative binomial models were applied to predict the probability of ever-use and the average number of drinks consumed in the past 30 days. Results supported the profound role of peer-relationships in the development of youth drinking behavior. Particularly, peer pressure seemed more important in predicting alcohol ever-use than the frequency of drinking. Simultaneously, parents, especially fathers, played a crucial protective role. Policies aimed at preventing various drinking patterns may be more effective if they not only focus on the targeted adolescents, but also reach out to peers and parents. PMID:24489979

  10. Longitudinal Associations of Alcohol Involvement with Subjective Well-Being in Adolescence and Prediction to Alcohol Problems in Early Adulthood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, W. Alex; Spoth, Richard L.

    2011-01-01

    Adolescent alcohol involvement is associated with numerous negative outcomes, but also appears to have positive correlates, including subjective well-being. Additional research is needed to understand these paradoxical findings. The current study examines alcohol use, adverse alcohol-related (and other substance-related) consequences, and…

  11. Longitudinal Associations of Alcohol Involvement with Subjective Well-Being in Adolescence and Prediction to Alcohol Problems in Early Adulthood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, W. Alex; Spoth, Richard L.

    2011-01-01

    Adolescent alcohol involvement is associated with numerous negative outcomes, but also appears to have positive correlates, including subjective well-being. Additional research is needed to understand these paradoxical findings. The current study examines alcohol use, adverse alcohol-related (and other substance-related) consequences, and…

  12. Predicting Post-Treatment-Initiation Alcohol Use among Patients with Severe Mental Illness and Alcohol Use Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bradizza, Clara M.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Vincent, Paula C.; Stasiewicz, Paul R.; Connors, Gerard J.; Mercer, Nicole D.

    2009-01-01

    Few investigators studying alcohol abuse among individuals with a severe mental illness (SMI) have examined predictors of posttreatment alcohol outcomes. In the present study, a multivariate approach based on a theoretical model was used to study the relationship between psychosocial factors and post-treatment-initiation alcohol use. Predictors of…

  13. Network of listed companies based on common shareholders and the prediction of market volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jie; Ren, Da; Feng, Xu; Zhang, Yongjie

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, we build a network of listed companies in the Chinese stock market based on common shareholding data from 2003 to 2013. We analyze the evolution of topological characteristics of the network (e.g., average degree, diameter, average path length and clustering coefficient) with respect to the time sequence. Additionally, we consider the economic implications of topological characteristic changes on market volatility and use them to make future predictions. Our study finds that the network diameter significantly predicts volatility. After adding control variables used in traditional financial studies (volume, turnover and previous volatility), network topology still significantly influences volatility and improves the predictive ability of the model.

  14. Prediction markets and their potential role in biomedical research--a review.

    PubMed

    Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan

    2010-01-01

    Predictions markets are marketplaces for trading contracts with payoffs that depend on the outcome of future events. Popular examples are markets on the outcome of presidential elections, where contracts pay $1 if a specific candidate wins the election and $0 if someone else wins. Contract prices on prediction markets can be interpreted as forecasts regarding the outcome of future events. Further attractive properties include the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to offer incentives for the acquisition of information. It has been argued that these properties might be valuable in the context of scientific research. In this review, we give an overview of key properties of prediction markets and discuss potential benefits for science. To illustrate these benefits for biomedical research, we discuss an example application in the context of decision making in research on the genetics of diseases. Moreover, some potential practical problems of prediction market application in science are discussed, and solutions are outlined. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  16. Predicting Post Treatment-Initiation Alcohol Use Among Patients With Severe Mental Illness and Alcohol Use Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Bradizza, Clara M.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Vincent, Paula C.; Stasiewicz, Paul R.; Connors, Gerard J.; Mercer, Nicole D.

    2010-01-01

    Few studies examining alcohol abuse among individuals with a severe mental illness (SMI) have examined predictors of post-treatment alcohol outcomes. The present study uses a multivariate approach based on a theoretical model to study the relationship between psychosocial factors and post treatment-initiation alcohol use. Predictors of alcohol use outcomes were examined in 278 individuals diagnosed with a current DSM-IV schizophrenia-spectrum or bipolar disorder and an alcohol use disorder (AUD). At 6-months follow-up after initiating treatment, 144 of 228 available participants (63%) had good clinical outcomes. The results of structural equation modeling indicated that type of pretreatment residential setting was directly related to treatment with participants living in supervised settings (41%) reporting significantly more days of treatment (β = .34, p < .001). In addition, participants with more psychiatric symptoms, assessed by the Brief Symptom Inventory and Structured Clinical Interview for the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, reported significantly fewer treatment days (β = −.20, p < .001). Number of days participants attended treatment was indirectly associated with alcohol use outcomes and was mediated by use of alcohol coping skills, such that more frequent use of alcohol-specific coping skills was associated with less post treatment-initiation alcohol use (β = −.34, p < .001). This study emphasizes the favorable prognosis for alcohol outcomes among treated individuals with a SMI and AUD and the importance of psychosocial interventions, particularly those that result in better alcohol-specific coping skills. PMID:19968390

  17. Web Search Queries Can Predict Stock Market Volumes

    PubMed Central

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people’s actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www. PMID:22829871

  18. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    PubMed

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

  19. Using "Bud World Party" attendance to predict adolescent alcohol use and beliefs about drinking.

    PubMed

    Thomsen, Steven R; Rekve, Dag; Lindsay, Gordon B

    2004-01-01

    This study explored the association between attendance at the "Bud World Party," a family entertainment venue created by Anheuser-Busch for the 2002 Winter Olympics, and alcohol-related beliefs and current drinking behaviors for a group of 7th and 8th graders who attend a middle school in close proximity to the downtown Salt Lake City plaza where the exhibit and related events were located. Data were collected via a questionnaire administered to 283 students 30 days after the closing ceremonies.. Logistic regression was used to predict recent alcohol consumption. Significant predictors were race (non-white) (OR = 3.9), religiosity (OR = .72), having a parent who drinks (OR = 4.8), the number of best friends who drink (OR = 2.5), and the interaction for "Bud World Party" attendance and gender (OR = 33.2). Post-hoc analysis of the interaction effect indicated that the relationship between "Bud World Party" attendance and recent alcohol consumption is moderated by gender. Girls who visited "Bud World Party" were more likely than the boys to have consumed alcohol in the past 30 days. In addition, the girls who visited "Bud World Party" were more likely to believe that drinking would increase their chances of popularity at school than the students who did not.

  20. Plasma miRNA Profiles in Pregnant Women Predict Infant Outcomes following Prenatal Alcohol Exposure

    PubMed Central

    Balaraman, Sridevi; Schafer, Jordan J.; Tseng, Alexander M.; Wertelecki, Wladimir; Yevtushok, Lyubov; Zymak-Zakutnya, Natalya; Chambers, Christina D.; Miranda, Rajesh C.

    2016-01-01

    Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) are difficult to diagnose since many heavily exposed infants, at risk for intellectual disability, do not exhibit craniofacial dysmorphology or growth deficits. Consequently, there is a need for biomarkers that predict disability. In both animal models and human studies, alcohol exposure during pregnancy resulted in significant alterations in circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) in maternal blood. In the current study, we asked if changes in plasma miRNAs in alcohol-exposed pregnant mothers, either alone or in conjunction with other clinical variables, could predict infant outcomes. Sixty-eight pregnant women at two perinatal care clinics in western Ukraine were recruited into the study. Detailed health and alcohol consumption histories, and 2nd and 3rd trimester blood samples were obtained. Birth cohort infants were assessed by a geneticist and classified as unexposed (UE), heavily prenatally exposed and affected (HEa) or heavily exposed but apparently unaffected (HEua). MiRNAs were assessed in plasma samples using qRT-PCR arrays. ANOVA models identified 11 miRNAs that were all significantly elevated in maternal plasma from the HEa group relative to HEua and UE groups. In a random forest analysis classification model, a combination of high variance miRNAs, smoking history and socioeconomic status classified membership in HEa and UE groups, with a misclassification rate of 13%. The RFA model also classified 17% of the HEua group as UE-like, whereas 83% were HEa-like, at least at one stage of pregnancy. Collectively our data indicate that maternal plasma miRNAs predict infant outcomes, and may be useful to classify difficult-to-diagnose FASD subpopulations. PMID:27828986

  1. Prediction Markets: A Review with an Experimentally Based Recommendation for Navy Force-shaping Application

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-12-01

    prices . Contract prices should be set at a reasonable level to ensure there is not an overwhelming arbitrage opportunity when the market opens...notion that markets are an excellent means of efficient information aggregation among a disparate group of people. Trading prices in the prediction...aggregation, forecasting, force shaping 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 123 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT Unclassified 18. SECURITY

  2. Development and Validation of a Risk Model for Prediction of Hazardous Alcohol Consumption in General Practice Attendees: The PredictAL Study

    PubMed Central

    King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I.; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

    2011-01-01

    Background Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. Results 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse. PMID:21853028

  3. Establishing a Real-Money Prediction Market for Climate on Decadal Horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roulston, M. S.; Hand, D. J.; Harding, D. W.

    2016-12-01

    A plan to establish a not-for-profit prediction market that will allow participants to bet on the value of selected climate variables decades into the future will be presented. It is hoped that this market will provide an objective measure of the consensus view on climate change, including information concerning the uncertainty of climate projections. The proposed design of the market and the definition of the climate variables underlying the contracts will be discussed, as well as relevant regulatory and legal issues.

  4. The Important People Drug and Alcohol Interview: Psychometric Properties, Predictive Validity, and Implications for Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Zywiak, William H.; Neighbors, Charles J.; Martin, Rosemarie A.; Johnson, Jennifer E.; Eaton, Cheryl A.; Rohsenow, Damaris J.

    2009-01-01

    Research with the Important People instrument has demonstrated that social support for abstinence is related to alcohol treatment outcomes but less work has been done on the role of network support in drug treatment outcomes. A drug and alcohol version of the Important People instrument (IPDA) was developed and administered to 141 patients in residential treatment for cocaine dependence. Three components were found, all with acceptable internal consistency: (1) substance involvement of the network, (2) general/treatment support, and (3) support for abstinence. These components and three fundamental network characteristics (size of daily network, size of network, and importance of the most important people) were investigated as correlates of pretreatment and posttreatment alcohol and drug use. The general/treatment support component and network size were inversely related to pretreatment days using drugs while network substance involvement positively correlated with pretreatment drinking frequency. Size of the daily network predicted less drinking, less drug use, and less problem severity during the 6 months after treatment whereas general/treatment support and support for abstinence did not predict outcome. Network substance involvement decreased for patients who stayed abstinent but not for those who later relapsed. Results suggest that increasing the number of people the patient sees daily while replacing substance-involved with abstinent-supportive people may improve treatment outcomes. Treatment programs may use the IPDA to identify clients most likely to benefit from changes in their social networks. PMID:18835677

  5. The Important People Drug and Alcohol interview: psychometric properties, predictive validity, and implications for treatment.

    PubMed

    Zywiak, William H; Neighbors, Charles J; Martin, Rosemarie A; Johnson, Jennifer E; Eaton, Cheryl A; Rohsenow, Damaris J

    2009-04-01

    Research with the Important People instrument has shown that social support for abstinence is related to alcohol treatment outcomes, but less work has been done on the role of network support in drug treatment outcomes. A drug and alcohol version of the Important People instrument (IPDA) was developed and administered to 141 patients in residential treatment for cocaine dependence. Three components were found, all with acceptable internal consistency: (a) substance involvement of the network, (b) general/treatment support, and (c) support for abstinence. These components and three fundamental network characteristics (size of daily network, size of network, and importance of the most important people) were investigated as correlates of pretreatment and posttreatment alcohol and drug use. The general/treatment support component and network size were inversely related to pretreatment days using drugs, whereas network substance involvement positively correlated with pretreatment drinking frequency. Size of the daily network predicted less drinking, less drug use, and less problem severity during the 6 months after treatment, whereas general/treatment support and support for abstinence did not predict outcome. Network substance involvement decreased for patients who stayed abstinent but not for those who later relapsed. Results suggest that increasing the number of people the patient sees daily while replacing substance-involved with abstinent-supportive people may improve treatment outcomes. Treatment programs may use the IPDA to identify clients most likely to benefit from changes in their social networks.

  6. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  7. Alcohol and tobacco marketing: An evaluation of compliance with restrictions on outdoor ads

    PubMed Central

    Scott, Molly M; Cohen, Deborah A; Schonlau, Matthias; Farley, Thomas A; Bluthenthal, Ricky

    2010-01-01

    Background Historically, the alcohol and tobacco industries have been the biggest users of outdoor advertising. However, the 1999 Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) outlawed tobacco billboards and transit furniture ads and the Outdoor Advertising Association of America (OAAA) has pledged to voluntarily eliminate ads for alcohol and tobacco within 500 feet of schools, playgrounds, and churches. Methods We observed outdoor advertisements (2004–2005) in a sample of 106 urban census tracts in Pre-Katrina southern Louisiana and 114 in Los Angeles County to evaluate tobacco and alcohol advertisers’ compliance with the MSA and the OAAA Code of Principles. Data were analyzed in 2007–2008. Results More than 1 in 4 tobacco ads in Louisiana failed to comply with the MSA. In Los Angeles, 37% of alcohol ads and 25% of tobacco ads were located within 500 feet of a school, park, or church; in Louisiana, roughly 1 in 5 ads promoting alcohol or tobacco fell within this distance. In Los Angeles, low-income status and the presence of a freeway in the tract were associated with 40% more alcohol and tobacco billboards near children. In Louisiana, each additional major roadway-mile was associated with 4% more tobacco ads in violation of MSA and 7% more small ads near schools, parks, and churches; city jurisdiction accounted for 55% of MSA violations and more than 70% violations of OAAA guidelines. Conclusions Cities must be empowered to deal locally with violations of the MSA. Legislation is needed to force advertisers to honor their pledge to protect children from alcohol and tobacco ads. PMID:18692735

  8. Neural activation during processing of aversive faces predicts treatment outcome in alcoholism.

    PubMed

    Charlet, Katrin; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Richter, Anne; Naundorf, Karina; Dornhof, Lina; Weinfurtner, Christopher E J; König, Friederike; Walaszek, Bernadeta; Schubert, Florian; Müller, Christian A; Gutwinski, Stefan; Seissinger, Annette; Schmitz, Lioba; Walter, Henrik; Beck, Anne; Gallinat, Jürgen; Kiefer, Falk; Heinz, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Neuropsychological studies reported decoding deficits of emotional facial expressions in alcohol-dependent patients, and imaging studies revealed reduced prefrontal and limbic activation during emotional face processing. However, it remains unclear whether this reduced neural activation is mediated by alcohol-associated volume reductions and whether it interacts with treatment outcome. We combined analyses of neural activation during an aversive face-cue-comparison task and local gray matter volumes (GM) using Biological Parametric Mapping in 33 detoxified alcohol-dependent patients and 33 matched healthy controls. Alcoholics displayed reduced activation toward aversive faces-neutral shapes in bilateral fusiform gyrus [FG; Brodmann areas (BA) 18/19], right middle frontal gyrus (BA46/47), right inferior parietal gyrus (BA7) and left cerebellum compared with controls, which were explained by GM differences (except for cerebellum). Enhanced functional activation in patients versus controls was found in left rostral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and medial frontal gyrus (BA10/11), even after GM reduction control. Increased ACC activation correlated significantly with less (previous) lifetime alcohol intake [Lifetime Drinking History (LDH)], longer abstinence and less subsequent binge drinking in patients. High LDH appear to impair treatment outcome via its neurotoxicity on ACC integrity. Thus, high activation of the rostral ACC elicited by affective faces appears to be a resilience factor predicting better treatment outcome. Although no group differences were found, increased FG activation correlated with patients' higher LDH. Because high LDH correlated with worse task performance for facial stimuli in patients, elevated activation in the fusiform 'face' area may reflect inefficient compensatory activation. Therapeutic interventions (e.g. emotion evaluation training) may enable patients to cope with social stress and to decrease relapses after detoxification.

  9. The predicted impact of reducing the nicotine content in cigarettes on alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Dermody, Sarah S; Donny, Eric C

    2014-08-01

    Product standards reducing the level of nicotine in cigarettes could significantly improve public health by reducing smoking behavior and toxicant exposure. However, relatively little is known about how the regulatory strategy could impact alcohol use, a closely related health behavior that is also a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. The primary objective of this paper is to predict the effect of nicotine reduction on alcohol use, identify priorities for future research, and highlight areas for mitigating any adverse outcomes. We critically reviewed and integrated literatures examining the effects of very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarettes on smoking-related outcomes (nicotine exposure, nicotine withdrawal, and smoking as a cue to drink) and, in turn, the effects of those outcomes on alcohol use. Current evidence suggests reducing the nicotine content of cigarettes may benefit public health by reducing alcohol use and problematic drinking over time as a consequence of reduced exposure to nicotine and the smoking cues associated with drinking. Nicotine withdrawal could increase risk of drinking, although these effects should be short-lived and could be mitigated by other sources of nicotine. Gender, hazardous drinking, and psychiatric comorbidities are likely to be important moderators of the effects of VLNC cigarettes. It is imperative to broadly assess the public health impact of potential tobacco product regulations by including measures of closely related health behaviors that could be impacted by these interventions. Nicotine reduction in cigarettes may contribute to improved public health through reductions in alcohol use. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Handgrip dynamometry: a surrogate marker of malnutrition to predict the prognosis in alcoholic liver disease

    PubMed Central

    Gaikwad, Nitin Rangrao; Gupta, Sudhir Jagdishprasad; Samarth, Amol Rajendra; Sankalecha, Tushar Hiralal

    2016-01-01

    Background The aim of the study was to determine the utility of handgrip dynamometry (HGD) in predicting short term mortality and complications in alcoholic liver disease. Methods Patients with alcoholic liver disease were included and nutritional assessment was done using the Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), HGD and other conventional parameters. Mortality rates and complications were compared to nutritional status. Results 80 patients were included in the study. Mean age of patients was 43.06±10.03 years. 69 patients survived and 11 patients died within the 3 month study duration. Handgrip strength (HGS) was higher in SGA A (28.76±5.48 kg) than SGA B (22.43±4.95 kg) and SGA C (16.78±3.83 kg) (P=<0.001). Number of complications including spontaneous bacterial Peritonitis, gastrointestinal bleeding and encephalopathy in SGA C group were 66.66%, in SGA B 20.75% and SGA A 10%. Mean HGS was significantly higher in the survivors (24.23±5.86) compared to non-survivors (18.04±4.82) (P=0.0011). There was a strong negative correlation between the HGS and Child-Pugh score (P=<0.0012). Multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess the risk factors for death showed handgrip to be in the suggestive significance range (P=0.072). The sensitivity of HGS was 88.41% in predicting short term mortality. Conclusions HGS correlates with Child-Pugh score in predicting short term mortality. HGD is a simple, inexpensive and sensitive tool for assessing the nutritional status in alcoholic liver disease and can reliably predict its complications and survival. PMID:27708519

  11. Prediction of Thermal Properties and Effect of OH Substituent for Poly(vinyl alcohol)s by Molecular Dynamics Calculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsuchiya, Yooko; Yoshii, Noriyuki; Iwatsubo, Tetsushiro

    2004-08-01

    Since heat storage technology contributes greatly to the effective use of energy, we are attempting to develop latent heat storage materials. If computer simulations enable the estimation of material properties prior to experiments, they will provide us with very effective tools for the development of new materials. We use molecular dynamics calculations to predict the melting points and latent heats of fusion, which are crucial thermal properties for evaluating the suitability of heat-storage materials. As the object of calculation, poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) was chosen, because polymer materials are effective in that they can be made to cover all temperature ranges by changing the molecular weight. The melting points were determined from the volume change, and the latent heats of fusion were determined from the internal energy. As for these calculations, it was ascertained that these thermal properties were suitable values in comparison with the results of actual calorimetry. From the comparative calculation of the polymer consistent force field (PCFF) and optimized potentials for liquid simulations (OPLS) force field, it was shown that the intermolecular potential could be simplified. Moreover, the stability of the structural isomer of PVA and the state of the hydrogen bond were evaluated, because a strong intermolecular bond leads to structural stability and a high melting temperature.

  12. It is pleasant and heavy: convergence of visual contents in tobacco, alcohol and food marketing in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Viacava, Keitiline R; Weydmann, Gibson J; de Vasconcelos, Mailton F; Jaboinski, Juliana; Batista, Graziele D; de Almeida, Rosa Maria M; Bizarro, Lisiane

    2016-09-01

    The tactical use of visuoperceptual content in marketing may encourage impulsive consumption of unhealthy products. In this study, the application of visuoperceptual content was compared in advertisements used by industries of tobacco, alcohol and food. The aim was to ascertain whether similarities exist in the strategies used as variables for the selection of commercial stimuli, such as color, position and size. Scion Image and Corel Draw Graphics Suite software were used to analyze the content of a non-probabilistic sample of advertising images (N = 150). Differences were identified in the use of the colors green (p = 0.04) and red (p = 0.01), but not in the use of the color blue (p = 0.64), suggesting that induction of feelings of pleasantness resulting from the use of the color blue may be associated with the advertising in the alcohol and tobacco industries. Regarding the position of the commercial stimuli, a predominance of the use of quadrants 'C' (p = 0.00) and 'D' (p = 0.01) was found in all three industries, indicating a similar use of areas perceived as being 'heavier'. As to the size, 78% of advertisements placed the commercial stimuli within a range of 0-25% of the total image. The results showed some similarities in the use of visuoperceptual content in advertisements for tobacco, alcohol and food, especially between tobacco and alcohol. The article offers a convergence analysis of these three industries altogether, providing additional subsidies for the formulation of protection policies. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Predicting the In-Hospital Responsiveness to Treatment of Alcoholics. Social Factors as Predictors of Outcome. Brain Damage as a Factor in Treatment Outcome of Chronic Alcoholic Patients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mascia, George V.; And Others

    The authors attempt to locate predictor variables associated with the outcome of alcoholic treatment programs. Muscia's study focuses on the predictive potential of: (1) response to a GSR conditioning procedure; (2) several personality variables; and (3) age and IQ measures. Nine variables, reflecting diverse perspectives, were selected as a basis…

  14. Deficits in Emotion-Regulation Skills Predict Alcohol Use during and after Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Alcohol Dependence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berking, Matthias; Margraf, Matthias; Ebert, David; Wupperman, Peggilee; Hofmann, Stefan G.; Junghanns, Klaus

    2011-01-01

    Objective: As emotion regulation is widely considered to be a primary motive in the misuse of alcohol, our aim in the study was to investigate whether deficits in adaptive emotion-regulation skills maintain alcohol dependence (AD). Method: A prospective study investigated whether emotion-regulation skills were associated with AD and whether these…

  15. Deficits in Emotion-Regulation Skills Predict Alcohol Use during and after Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Alcohol Dependence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berking, Matthias; Margraf, Matthias; Ebert, David; Wupperman, Peggilee; Hofmann, Stefan G.; Junghanns, Klaus

    2011-01-01

    Objective: As emotion regulation is widely considered to be a primary motive in the misuse of alcohol, our aim in the study was to investigate whether deficits in adaptive emotion-regulation skills maintain alcohol dependence (AD). Method: A prospective study investigated whether emotion-regulation skills were associated with AD and whether these…

  16. Gender, male-typicality, and social norms predicting adolescent alcohol intoxication and marijuana use.

    PubMed

    Mahalik, James R; Lombardi, Caitlin McPherran; Sims, Jacqueline; Coley, Rebekah Levine; Lynch, Alicia Doyle

    2015-10-01

    This study examined the direct and interactive effects of gender, male-typicality, and social norms in predicting the initiation and longitudinal patterns of alcohol intoxication and marijuana use in U.S. youth. Data were drawn from a longitudinal survey of 10,588 youth who participated in the in-home survey of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Multilevel growth modeling used data from three time points to assess trajectories of substance use from adolescence to young adulthood. Analyses indicated that gender, male-typicality, as well as home availability, friend social norms, and schoolmate social norms predicted initial levels of intoxication and marijuana use, with gender, friend norms, and schoolmate norms also predicting differential rates of growth over time in intoxication and marijuana use. Interaction results indicated that gender moderated male-typicality's relationship to both substance use variables, and home availability's relationship to alcohol intoxication. These findings extend the literatures regarding interrelations among gender, gender roles, social norms, and health risk behaviors by (a) locating the genesis of those effects in adolescence, (b) identifying gender and social norms to be salient in terms of both initiation and growth of substance use over time, (c) suggesting that gender differences should be understood as moderated by other social-contextual variables, and (d) arguing that prevention efforts should address gender and gender roles more explicitly in programming. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Serum type IV collagen level is predictive for esophageal varices in patients with severe alcoholic disease

    PubMed Central

    Mamori, Satoshi; Searashi, Yasuyuki; Matsushima, Masato; Hashimoto, Kenichi; Uetake, Shinichiro; Matsudaira, Hiroshi; Ito, Shuji; Nakajima, Hisato; Tajiri, Hisao

    2008-01-01

    AIM: To determine factors predictive for esophageal varices in severe alcoholic disease (SAD). METHODS: Abdominal ultrasonography (US) was performed on 444 patients suffering from alcoholism. Forty-four patients found to have splenomegaly and/or withering of the right liver lobe were defined as those with SAD. SAD patients were examined by upper gastrointestinal (UGI) endoscopy for the presence of esophageal varices. The existence of esophageal varices was then related to clinical variables. RESULTS: Twenty-five patients (56.8%) had esophageal varices. A univariate analysis revealed a significant difference in age and type IV collagen levels between patients with and without esophageal varices. A logistic regression analysis identified type IV collagen as the only independent variable predictive for esophageal varices (P = 0.017). The area under the curve (AUC) for type IV collagen as determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) for predicting esophageal varices was 0.78. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the level of type IV collagen has a high diagnostic accuracy for the detection of esophageal varices in SAD. PMID:18395904

  18. Alcohol expectancies in childhood: change with the onset of drinking and ability to predict adolescent drunkenness and binge drinking.

    PubMed

    Jester, Jennifer M; Wong, Maria M; Cranford, James A; Buu, Anne; Fitzgerald, Hiram E; Zucker, Robert A

    2015-01-01

    We examined the relationship between alcohol expectancies in childhood and onset of drinking, binge drinking and drunkenness in adolescence and the influence of drinking onset on expectancy development. A prospective, longitudinal study of children assessed for alcohol expectancies and drinking at four time-points between ages 6 and 17 years. Community study of families at high risk for alcoholism conducted in a four-county area in the Midwestern United States. The study involved 614 children; 460 were children of alcoholics and 70% were male. Expectancies about alcohol effects were measured using the Beverage Opinion Questionnaire and child's drinking by the Drinking and Drug History-Youth Form. Partial factor invariance was found for expectancy factors from ages 6 to 17 years. Survival analysis showed that social/relaxation expectancies in childhood predicted time to onset of binge drinking and first time drunk (Wald χ(2) , 1 d.f. = 3.8, P = 0.05 and 5.0, P < 0.05, respectively). The reciprocal effect was also present; when adolescents began drinking, there was an increase in social/relaxation expectancy and a concomitant increase in slope of the expectancy changes lasting throughout adolescence. A reciprocal relationship exists between childhood alcohol expectancies and the development of alcohol involvement. Higher expectancies for positive effects predict earlier onset of problem drinking. Onset of use, in turn, predicts an increase in rate of development of positive expectancies. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  19. Alcohol-Related Incident Guardianship and Undergraduate College Parties: Enhancing the Social Norms Marketing Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilbertson, Troy A.

    2006-01-01

    This randomized experiment examines the effects of contextual information on undergraduate college student's levels of alcohol-related incident guardianship at college parties. The research is conceptualized using routine activities theory and the theory of planned behavior. The experiment examines attitudinal variations about heavy drinking…

  20. Alcohol-Related Incident Guardianship and Undergraduate College Parties: Enhancing the Social Norms Marketing Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilbertson, Troy A.

    2006-01-01

    This randomized experiment examines the effects of contextual information on undergraduate college student's levels of alcohol-related incident guardianship at college parties. The research is conceptualized using routine activities theory and the theory of planned behavior. The experiment examines attitudinal variations about heavy drinking…

  1. Within treatment therapeutic alliance ratings profiles predict posttreatment frequency of alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Prince, Mark A; Connors, Gerard J; Maisto, Stephen A; Dearing, Ronda L

    2016-03-01

    Although past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. Sixty-five treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pretreatment, during treatment, and posttreatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients' and therapists' mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. One- through 4-class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4-months posttreatment. Three-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment.

  2. Within treatment therapeutic alliance ratings profiles predict posttreatment frequency of alcohol use

    PubMed Central

    Prince, Mark A.; Connors, Gerard J.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Dearing, Ronda L.

    2016-01-01

    While past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. 65 treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pre-treatment, during treatment, and post-treatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients’ and therapists’ mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. 1- through 4- class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4 months posttreatment. 3-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment. PMID:26999350

  3. The Role of Feedback in the Assimilation of Information in Prediction Markets

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jolly, Richard Donald

    2011-01-01

    Leveraging the knowledge of an organization is an ongoing challenge that has given rise to the field of knowledge management. Yet, despite spending enormous sums of organizational resources on Information Technology (IT) systems, executives recognize there is much more knowledge to harvest. Prediction markets are emerging as one tool to help…

  4. The Role of Feedback in the Assimilation of Information in Prediction Markets

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jolly, Richard Donald

    2011-01-01

    Leveraging the knowledge of an organization is an ongoing challenge that has given rise to the field of knowledge management. Yet, despite spending enormous sums of organizational resources on Information Technology (IT) systems, executives recognize there is much more knowledge to harvest. Prediction markets are emerging as one tool to help…

  5. Increased neural activity during high working memory load predicts low relapse risk in alcohol dependence.

    PubMed

    Charlet, Katrin; Beck, Anne; Jorde, Anne; Wimmer, Lioba; Vollstädt-Klein, Sabine; Gallinat, Jürgen; Walter, Henrik; Kiefer, Falk; Heinz, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Working memory (WM) impairments are often observed in alcohol-dependent individuals, especially in early abstinence, which may contribute to an increased relapse risk after detoxification. Brain imaging studies on visuospatial WM in alcohol-dependent patients compared to controls indicate that information processing requires compensatory increased neural activation to perform at a normal level. However, to date, no study tested whether such increased neural WM activation patterns or the lack thereof predict relapse behavior in alcohol-dependent individuals, and whether such differences persist when adequately correcting for individual grey matter differences. We combined analyses of neural activation during an n-back task and local grey matter volumes using Biological Parametric Mapping in 40 detoxified alcohol-dependent patients and 40 matched healthy controls (HC), and assessed prospective relapse risk during a 7-month follow-up period. Despite equal task performance, we found increased functional activation during high versus low cognitive WM load (2-back-0-back) in bilateral rostral prefrontal cortex (BA10) and bilateral ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (BA45,47) in prospective abstainers versus relapsers, and further in left/right lateral/medial premotor cortex (BA6,8) in abstainers versus HC. In prospective abstainers, but not relapsers, subtle cognitive impairment was associated with increased neural task activity in the premotor cortex. These findings suggest that in prospective abstainers, higher functional engagement of presumably less impaired neural resources in executive behavioral control brain areas (BA10, 45, 47, 6, 8) may constitute a resilience factor associated with good treatment outcome. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. Actual and predicted prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in the WHO African Region.

    PubMed

    Popova, Svetlana; Lange, Shannon; Probst, Charlotte; Shield, Kevin; Kraicer-Melamed, Hannah; Ferreira-Borges, Carina; Rehm, Jürgen

    2016-10-01

    To estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region, by country. First, a comprehensive systematic literature search was performed to identify all published and unpublished studies. Then, several meta-analyses, assuming a random-effects model, were conducted to estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population for countries in the WHO African Region with two or more studies available. Lastly, for countries with less than two studies or no known data predictions were obtained using regression modelling. The estimated prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy among the general population ranged from 2.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-2.8%; Equatorial Guinea) to 12.6% (95% CI: 9.9-15.4%; Cameroon) in Central Africa, 3.4% (95% CI: 2.6-4.3%; Seychelles) to 20.5% (95% CI: 16.4-24.7%; Uganda) in Eastern Africa, 5.7% (95% CI: 4.4-7.1%; Botswana) to 14.2% (95% CI: 11.1-17.3%; Namibia) in Southern Africa, 6.6% (95% CI: 5.0-8.3%; Mauritania) to 14.8% (95% CI: 11.6-17.9%; Sierra Leone) in Western Africa, and 4.3% (95% CI: 3.2-5.3%; Algeria) in Northern Africa. The high prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy in some African countries calls for educational campaigns, screening and targeted interventions for women of childbearing age. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Changes in Sensation Seeking and Risk-taking Propensity Predict Increases in Alcohol Use among Early Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    MacPherson, Laura; Magidson, Jessica F.; Reynolds, Elizabeth K.; Kahler, Christopher W.; Lejuez, C.W.

    2011-01-01

    Background Conceptual models implicating disinhibitory traits often are applied to understanding emergent alcohol use, but, little is known of how inter-individual changes in these constructs relate to increases in alcohol use in early adolescence. The current study utilized behavioral and self-report instruments to capture the disinhibitory-based constructs of sensation seeking and risk taking propensity to examine if increases in these constructs over time related to increases in early adolescent alcohol use. Methods Participants included a community sample of 257 early adolescents (aged 9-12) who completed a self-report measure of sensation seeking, a behavioral task assessing risk taking propensity, and a self-report of past year alcohol use, at three annual assessment waves. Results Both sensation seeking and risk taking propensity demonstrated significant increases over time, with additional evidence that change in the behavioral measure of risk taking propensity was not due to practice effects. Greater sensation seeking and greater risk taking propensity demonstrated concurrent relationships with past year alcohol use at each assessment wave. Prospective analyses indicated that after accounting for initial levels of alcohol use, sensation seeking, and risk taking propensity at the first assessment wave, larger increases in both constructs predicted greater odds of alcohol use at subsequent assessment waves. Conclusions Results indicate the role of individual changes in disinhibitory traits in initial alcohol use in early adolescents. Specifically, findings suggest it is not simply initial levels of sensation seeking and risk taking propensity that contribute to subsequent alcohol use but in particular increases in each of these constructs that predict greater odds of use. Future work should continue to assess the development of sensation seeking and risk taking propensity in early adolescence and target these constructs in interventions as a potential means

  8. Adolescent Alcohol Use is Predicted by Childhood Temperament Factors Before Age 5, with Mediation Through Personality and Peers

    PubMed Central

    Dick, Danielle M.; Aliev, Fazil; Latendresse, Shawn J.; Hickman, Matt; Heron, Jon; Macleod, John; Joinson, Carol; Maughan, Barbara; Lewis, Glyn; Kendler, Kenneth S.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Very few studies chart developmental pathways from early childhood to adolescent alcohol-related outcomes. We test whether measures of temperament collected from mothers at multiple assessments from 6 months through 5 years predict alcohol-related outcomes in mid-adolescence, the developmental pathways that mediate these effects, and whether there are gender differences in pathways of risk. Methods: Structural models were fit to longitudinal data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, an epidemiological sample of pregnant women with delivery dates between April 1991 and December 1992, with children followed longitudinally. Temperamental characteristics were assessed at 6 time points from 6 to 69 months of age. Alcohol use and problems were assessed at age 15.5. Analyses here utilize data from 6,504 boys and 6,143 girls. Results: Childhood temperament prior to age 5 predicted adolescent alcohol use and problems at age 15.5 years, even after controlling for socio-demographic factors and parental alcohol problems. In both boys and girls, 2 largely uncorrelated and distinct temperament styles—children who were rated as having consistent emotional and conduct difficulties through age 5, and children who were rated as consistently sociable through age 5—both showed elevated rates of alcohol problems at age 15.5, but via different mediational pathways. In both genders, the association between emotional and conduct difficulties and alcohol problems was mediated through reduced conscientiousness and lower emotional stability. The association between sociability and alcohol problems was mediated through increased extraversion and sensation-seeking for both genders. Boys also showed mediation for sociability and alcohol outcomes through friendship characteristics, and girls through lower conscientiousness and reduced emotional stability. Conclusions: Our findings support multiple pathways to alcohol consumption and problems in adolescence

  9. Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

    PubMed

    Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  10. Predictive validity of the ASAM Patient Placement Criteria for naturalistically matched vs. mismatched alcoholism patients.

    PubMed

    Magura, Stephen; Staines, Graham; Kosanke, Nicole; Rosenblum, Andrew; Foote, Jeffrey; DeLuca, Alexander; Bali, Priti

    2003-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of the ASAM Patient Placement Criteria for matching alcoholism patients to recommended levels of care. A cohort of 248 patients newly admitted to inpatient rehabilitation, intensive outpatient, or regular outpatient care was evaluated using both a computerized algorithm and a clinical evaluation protocol to determine whether they were naturalistically matched or mismatched to care. Outcomes were assessed three months after intake. One common type of undertreatment (ie, receiving regular outpatient care when intensive outpatient care was recommended) predicted poorer drinking outcomes as compared with matched treatment, independent of actual level of care received. Overtreatment did not improve outcomes. There also was a trend for better outcomes with residential vs. intensive outpatient treatment, independent of matching. Results were robust for both methods of assessment. Corroboration by more research is needed, but the ASAM Criteria show promise for reducing both detrimental undertreatment and cost-inefficient overtreatment.

  11. Evaluation of MELD score and Maddrey discriminant function for mortality prediction in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    PubMed

    Monsanto, Pedro; Almeida, Nuno; Lrias, Clotilde; Pina, Jos Eduardo; Sofia, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    Maddrey discriminant function (DF) is the traditional model for evaluating the severity and prognosis in alcoholic hepatitis (AH). However, MELD has also been used for this purpose. We aimed to determine the predictive parameters and compare the ability of Maddrey DF and MELD to predict short-term mortality in patients with AH. Retrospective study of 45 patients admitted in our department with AH between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters were collected. MELD and Maddrey DF were calculated on admission. Short-term mortality was assessed at 30 and 90 days. Student t-test, χ2 test, univariate analysis, logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves were performed. Thirty-day and 90-day mortality was 27% and 42%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, Maddrey DF was the only independent predictor of mortality for these two periods. Receiver operating characteristic curves for Maddrey DF revealed an excellent discriminatory ability to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality for a Maddrey DF greater than 65 and 60, respectively. Discriminatory ability to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality for MELD was low. AH remains associated with a high short-term mortality. Maddrey DF is a more valuable model than MELD to predict short-term mortality in patients with AH.

  12. If You Feed Them, Will They Come? The Use of Social Marketing to Increase Interest in Attending a College Alcohol Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, Rebekka S.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Larimer, Mary E.

    2006-01-01

    The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires…

  13. If You Feed Them, Will They Come? The Use of Social Marketing to Increase Interest in Attending a College Alcohol Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, Rebekka S.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Larimer, Mary E.

    2006-01-01

    The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires…

  14. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  15. Marketing.

    PubMed

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    There is not enough marketing of dentistry; but there certainly is too much selling of poor quality service that is being passed off as dentistry. The marketing concept makes the patient and the patients' needs the ultimate criteria of marketing efforts. Myths and good practices for effective marketing that will promote oral health are described under the traditional four "Ps" categories of "product" (best dental care), "place" (availability), "promotion" (advertising and other forms of making patients aware of available services and how to use them), and "price" (the total cost to patients of receiving care).

  16. Interaction between a functional MAOA locus and childhood sexual abuse predicts alcoholism and antisocial personality disorder in adult women.

    PubMed

    Ducci, F; Enoch, M-A; Hodgkinson, C; Xu, K; Catena, M; Robin, R W; Goldman, D

    2008-03-01

    Women who have experienced childhood sexual abuse (CSA) have an increased risk of alcoholism and antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). Among male subjects, a functional polymorphism (MAOA-LPR, monoamine oxidase A linked polymorphic region) in the promoter region of the monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA) appears to moderate the effect of childhood maltreatment on antisocial behavior. Our aim was to test whether MAOA-LPR influences the impact of CSA on alcoholism and ASPD in a sample of 291 women, 50% of whom have experienced CSA; we also tested whether haplotypes covering the region where both MAOA and monoamine oxidase B (MAOB) genes are located predict risk of alcoholism and ASPD better than the MAOA-LPR locus alone. Participants included 168 alcoholics (39 with ASPD (antisocial alcoholics) and 123 controls (no alcoholics, no ASPD). Antisocial behavior was also modeled as a continuous trait: ASPD symptoms count. The MAOA-LPR low activity allele was associated with alcoholism (P=0.005), particularly antisocial alcoholism (P=0.00009), only among sexually abused subjects. Sexually abused women who were homozygous for the low activity allele had higher rates of alcoholism and ASPD, and more ASPD symptoms, than abused women homozygous for the high activity allele. Heterozygous women displayed an intermediate risk pattern. In contrast, there was no relationship between alcoholism/antisocial behavior and MAOA-LPR genotype among non-abused women. The MAOA-LPR low activity allele was found on three different haplotypes. The most abundant MAOA haplotype containing the MAOA-LPR low activity allele was found in excess among alcoholics (P=0.008) and antisocial alcoholics (P=0.001). Finally, a MAOB haplotype, which we termed haplotype C, was significantly associated with alcoholism (P=0.006), and to a lesser extent with antisocial alcoholism (P=0.03). In conclusions, MAOA seems to moderate the impact of childhood trauma on adult psychopathology in female subjects in the same way

  17. Using the AUDIT-PC to predict alcohol withdrawal in hospitalized patients.

    PubMed

    Pecoraro, Anna; Ewen, Edward; Horton, Terry; Mooney, Ruth; Kolm, Paul; McGraw, Patty; Woody, George

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) occurs when alcohol-dependent individuals abruptly reduce or stop drinking. Hospitalized alcohol-dependent patients are at risk. Hospitals need a validated screening tool to assess withdrawal risk, but no validated tools are currently available. To examine the admission Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-(Piccinelli) Consumption (AUDIT-PC) ability to predict the subsequent development of AWS among hospitalized medical-surgical patients admitted to a non-intensive care setting. Retrospective case–control study of patients discharged from the hospital with a diagnosis of AWS. All patients with AWS were classified as presenting with AWS or developing AWS later during admission. Patients admitted to an intensive care setting and those missing AUDIT-PC scores were excluded from analysis. A hierarchical (by hospital unit) logistic regression was performed and receiver-operating characteristics were examined on those developing AWS after admission and randomly selected controls. Because those diagnosing AWS were not blinded to the AUDIT-PC scores, a sensitivity analysis was performed. The study cohort included all patients age ≥18 years admitted to any medical or surgical units in a single health care system from 6 October 2009 to 7 October 2010. After exclusions, 414 patients were identified with AWS. The 223 (53.9 %) who developed AWS after admission were compared to 466 randomly selected controls without AWS. An AUDIT-PC score ≥4 at admission provides 91.0 % sensitivity and 89.7 % specificity (AUC=0.95; 95 % CI, 0.94–0.97) for AWS, and maximizes the correct classification while resulting in 17 false positives for every true positive identified. Performance remained excellent on sensitivity analysis (AUC=0.92; 95 % CI, 0.90–0.93). Increasing AUDIT-PC scores were associated with an increased risk of AWS (OR=1.68, 95 % CI 1.55–1.82, p<0.001). The admission AUDIT-PC score is an excellent discriminator of AWS and could be

  18. The Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS):Predictive invariance of Demographic Characteristics on Attitudes towards Alcohol across Hispanic National Groups.

    PubMed

    Mills, Britain A; Caetano, Raul; Bernstein, Ira H

    2010-01-01

    This study compares the demographic predictors of items assessing attitudes towards drinking across Hispanic national groups. Data were from the 2006 Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS), which used a multistage cluster sample design to interview 5,224 individuals randomly selected from the household population in Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Houston, and Los Angeles. Predictive invariance of demographic predictors of alcohol attitudes over four Hispanic national groups (Puerto Rican, Cuban, Mexican, and South/Central Americans) was examined using multiple-group seemingly unrelated probit regression. The analyses examined whether the influence of various demographic predictors varied across the Hispanic national groups in their regression coefficients, item intercepts, and error correlations. The hypothesis of predictive invariance was supported. Hispanic groups did not differ in how demographic predictors related to individual attitudinal items (regression slopes were invariant). In addition, the groups did not differ in attitudinal endorsement rates once demographic covariates were taken into account (item intercepts were invariant). Although Hispanic groups have different attitudes about alcohol, the influence of multiple demographic characteristics on alcohol attitudes operates similarly across Hispanic groups. Future models of drinking behavior in adult Hispanics need not posit moderating effects of group on the relation between these background characteristics and attitudes.

  19. The Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS):Predictive invariance of Demographic Characteristics on Attitudes towards Alcohol across Hispanic National Groups#

    PubMed Central

    Mills, Britain A.; Caetano, Raul; Bernstein, Ira H.

    2011-01-01

    This study compares the demographic predictors of items assessing attitudes towards drinking across Hispanic national groups. Data were from the 2006 Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS), which used a multistage cluster sample design to interview 5,224 individuals randomly selected from the household population in Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Houston, and Los Angeles. Predictive invariance of demographic predictors of alcohol attitudes over four Hispanic national groups (Puerto Rican, Cuban, Mexican, and South/Central Americans) was examined using multiple-group seemingly unrelated probit regression. The analyses examined whether the influence of various demographic predictors varied across the Hispanic national groups in their regression coefficients, item intercepts, and error correlations. The hypothesis of predictive invariance was supported. Hispanic groups did not differ in how demographic predictors related to individual attitudinal items (regression slopes were invariant). In addition, the groups did not differ in attitudinal endorsement rates once demographic covariates were taken into account (item intercepts were invariant). Although Hispanic groups have different attitudes about alcohol, the influence of multiple demographic characteristics on alcohol attitudes operates similarly across Hispanic groups. Future models of drinking behavior in adult Hispanics need not posit moderating effects of group on the relation between these background characteristics and attitudes. PMID:25379120

  20. Marketing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Appel, David L.

    This booklet suggests ways in which institutions--Catholic schools in particular--can move beyond public relations and advertising to engage in the broader arena of marketing with its focus on consumer satisfaction. The first of the book's three chapters reviews the concept of marketing, providing definitions of key terms, clarification of…

  1. Marketing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maust, Robert N.

    1985-01-01

    Although college administrators may be committed to the concept and need for institutional marketing, even a well-developed marketing plan may not work if it is not clearly organized to address special needs. This article reviews management fads, how to make jargon operational, organizational dynamics, and monitoring fads. (MSE)

  2. Predictive validity of the AUDIT for hazardous alcohol consumption in recently released prisoners.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Emma; Degenhardt, Louisa; Alati, Rosa; Kinner, Stuart

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to assess the predictive validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) among adult prisoners with respect to hazardous drinking following release, and identify predictors of post-release hazardous drinking among prisoners screening positive for risk of alcohol-related harm on the AUDIT. Data came from a survey-based longitudinal study of 1325 sentenced adult prisoners in Queensland, Australia. Baseline interviews were conducted pre-release with follow-up at 3 and 6 months post-release. We calculated sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) to quantify the predictive validity of the AUDIT administered at baseline with respect to post-release hazardous drinking. Other potential predictors of hazardous drinking were measured by self-report and their association with the outcome was examined using logistic regression. At a cut-point of 8 or above, sensitivity of the AUDIT with respect to hazardous drinking at 3-month follow-up was 81.0% (95%CI: 77.9-84.6%) and specificity was 65.6% (95%CI: 60.6-70.3%). The AUROC was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.75-0.81), indicating moderate accuracy. Among those scoring 8 or above, high expectations to drink post-release (AOR: 2.49; 95%CI: 1.57-3.94) and past amphetamine-type stimulant (ATS) use (AOR: 1.64; 95%CI: 1.06-2.56) were significantly associated with hazardous drinking at 3 months post-release. Results were similar at 6 months. Among adult prisoners in our sample, pre-release AUDIT scores predicted hazardous drinking six months after release with acceptable accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Among prisoners screening positive on the AUDIT, expectations of post-release drinking and ATS use are potential targets for intervention to reduce future hazardous drinking. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Prediction of vapor-liquid equilibria for the alcohol + glycerol systems using UNIFAC and modified UNIFAC (Dortmund)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartanto, Dhoni; Mustain, Asalil; Nugroho, Febry Dwi

    2017-03-01

    The vapor-liquid equilibria for eight systems of alcohols + glycerol at 101.325 kPa have been predicted in this study using UNIFAC and Modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) group contribution methods. The investigated alcohols were methanol, ethanol, 1-propanol, 2-propanol, 1-butanol, 2-butanol, 2-methyl-1-propanol and 2-methyl-2-propanol. In order to study the accuracy of both contribution methods, the predicted data obtained from both approaches were compared to the experimental data from the literature. The prediction accuracy using modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) give better results compared to the UNIFAC method for (ethanol, 1-propanol, 2-propanol and 1-butanol) + glycerol but UNIFAC method show better accuracy for methanol + glycerol system. In addition, the influences of carbon chain length on the phase behaviours of alcohol + glycerol systems were also discussed as well.

  4. Personality and Defense Styles: Clinical Specificities and Predictive Factors of Alcohol Use Disorder in Women.

    PubMed

    Ribadier, Aurélien; Dorard, Géraldine; Varescon, Isabelle

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated personality traits and defense styles in order to determine clinical specificities and predictive factors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) in women. A female sample, composed of AUD outpatients (n = 48) and a control group (n = 50), completed a sociodemographic self-report and questionnaires assessing personality traits (BFI), defense mechanisms and defense styles (DSQ-40). Comparative and correlational analyses, as well as univariate and multivariate logistic regressions, were performed. AUD women presented with higher neuroticism and lower extraversion and conscientiousness. They used less mature and more neurotic and immature defense styles than the control group. Concerning personality traits, high neuroticism and lower conscientiousness were predictive of AUD, as well as low mature, high neurotic, and immature defense styles. Including personality traits and defense styles in a logistic model, high neuroticism was the only AUD predictive factor. AUD women presented clinical specificities and predictive factors in personality traits and defense styles that must be taken into account in AUD studies. Implications for specific treatment for women are discussed.

  5. Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

    PubMed Central

    Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

  6. Mood and the market: can press reports of investors' mood predict stock prices?

    PubMed

    Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.

  7. Being well-liked predicts increased use of alcohol but not tobacco in early adolescence.

    PubMed

    Van Ryzin, Mark J; DeLay, Dawn; Dishion, Thomas J

    2016-02-01

    Although substance use has traditionally been linked to peer deviance, a parallel literature has explored the influence of peer social status (being "well-liked"). This literature hypothesizes that adolescents with higher status will anticipate shifts in social norms and modify their behavior earlier and/or more substantially than lower-status students. As substance use becomes more socially acceptable during early-to-mid-adolescence, higher status youth are hypothesized to reflect this shift in norms by accelerating their use more rapidly than lower status youth. Although some evidence exists to support this hypothesis, it has never been evaluated in conjunction with the opposing hypothesis (i.e., that substance use contributes to elevated peer status). In this study, we evaluated reciprocal links between peer status and substance use (i.e., alcohol and tobacco) using 3years of data from 8 middle schools in the Pacific Northwest. Social network analysis enabled us to model standard network effects along with unique effects for the influence of the network on behavior (i.e., increased substance use as a result of being well-liked) and the influence of behavior on the network (i.e., increased status as a result of substance use). Our results indicated significant bidirectional effects for alcohol use but no significant effects for tobacco use. In other words, being well-liked significantly predicted alcohol use and vice versa, but these processes were not significant for tobacco use. Prevention efforts should consider the dynamics of peer status and peer norms in adolescence with the goal of preventing escalations in problem behavior that can compromise future adjustment.

  8. Being Well-Liked Predicts Increased Use of Alcohol but not Tobacco in Early Adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Van Ryzin, Mark J.; DeLay, Dawn; Dishion, Thomas J.

    2015-01-01

    Although substance use has traditionally been linked to peer deviance, a parallel literature has explored the influence of peer social status (being “well-liked”). This literature hypothesizes that adolescents with higher status will anticipate shifts in social norms and modify their behavior earlier and/or more substantially than lower-status students. As substance use becomes more socially acceptable during early-to-mid-adolescence, higher status youth are hypothesized to reflect this shift in norms by accelerating their use. Although some evidence exists to support this hypothesis, it has never been evaluated in conjunction with the opposing hypothesis (i.e., that substance use contributes to elevated peer status). In this study, we evaluated reciprocal links between peer status and substance use (i.e., alcohol and tobacco) using 3 years of data from a sample of adolescents attending 8 middle schools in the Pacific Northwest. Social network analysis enabled us to model standard network effects along with unique effects for the influence of the network on behavior (i.e., increased substance use as a result of being well-liked) and the influence of behavior on the network (i.e., increased status as a result of substance use). Our results indicated significant bidirectional effects for alcohol use but no significant effects for tobacco use. In other words, being well-liked significantly predicted alcohol use and vice versa, but these processes were not significant for tobacco use. Prevention efforts should consider the dynamics of peer status and peer norms in adolescence with the goal of preventing escalations in problem behavior that can compromise future adjustment. PMID:26547042

  9. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

    PubMed

    Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  10. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  11. A new method study of spectral measurement and prediction based on the nonlinear solution concentration of alcohol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yun; Xie, Lei; Hao, Jiong-Ju; Liu, Yu-Jie; Ma, Bao-Liang; Xu, Zhi-Gang; Yang, Hong-Wei

    2017-07-01

    The configuration and the detection of solution concentration are the basic steps of scientific research. Most of solution concentrations can be obtained by indirect method. In this paper, by using the numerical relationship known between the alcohol concentration and refractive index, the relationship between the alcohol concentration and spectral transmission characteristics of the resonance peak can be calculated. The relationship between transmittance and concentration of alcohol solution can be described in a certain nonlinear mathematical expression, which is simple and inversible. Such method provides a novel way to detect alcohol solution concentration and puts forward the expression of the nonlinear correction. The linear relationship that has been using for long time is revised. And it can be reasonable to predict relative parameter that is unknown. This paper provides a new way to reasonable configuration and application for the concentration of solution.

  12. Psychopathy and the Prediction of Alcohol-Related Physical Aggression: The Roles of Impulsive Antisociality and Fearless Dominance

    PubMed Central

    Birkley, Erica L.; Giancola, Peter R.; Lance, Charles E.

    2012-01-01

    Background It is well established that individual difference factors modulate aggression under the acute effects of alcohol. In this investigation, we tested the hypothesis that one core dimension of psychopathy, Impulsive Antisociality, would modulate intoxicated aggression, whereas another dimension, Fearless Dominance, would not. Methods Participants were 516 young social drinkers (253 men and 263 women). Psychopathy was measured using the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI; Lilienfeld and Andrews, 1996). Following the consumption of either an alcohol or a placebo beverage, aggression was measured with a task in which participants administered and received electric shocks to/from a fictitious opponent under the guise of a competitive reaction-time task. Results Hierarchical regression analyses supported our hypothesis: Impulsive Antisociality predicted aggression under alcohol, whereas Fearless Dominance did not. Conclusions Persons who tend to endorse antisocial and impulsive externalizing behaviors appear to be at greater risk for aggression under the acute influence of alcohol. PMID:22959485

  13. Innovations in Defense Acquisition: Asymmetric Information, Mechanism Design and Prediction Markets

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-02-03

    is a fair characterization to say that prediction markets may be very straightforward in basic principle , but in practice the devil is certainly in...experimental economics and game theory /mechanism design. He also has research interests in strategic and competitive dynamics, particularly applied to...School in 1988, Dr. Gates work as an economist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA. Dr. Gates’ research interests include game theory

  14. Predicting the Population Health Impacts of Community Interventions: The Case of Alcohol Outlets and Binge Drinking.

    PubMed

    Ahern, Jennifer; Colson, K Ellicott; Margerson-Zilko, Claire; Hubbard, Alan; Galea, Sandro

    2016-11-01

    A substitution estimator can be used to predict how shifts in population exposures might change health. We illustrated this method by estimating how an upper limit on alcohol outlet density might alter binge drinking in the New York Social Environment Study (n = 4000), and provided statistical code and sample data. The largest differences in binge drinking were for an upper limit of 70 outlets per square mile; there was a -0.7% difference in binge drinking prevalence for New York City overall (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.2%, -1.3%) and a -2.4% difference in binge drinking prevalence for the subset of communities the intervention modified (95% CI = -0.5%, -4.0%). A substitution estimator is a flexible tool for estimating population intervention parameters and improving the translation of public health research results to practitioners.

  15. A longitudinal study predicting adolescent tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis use by behavioral characteristics of close friends.

    PubMed

    Mason, Michael J; Zaharakis, Nikola M; Rusby, Julie C; Westling, Erika; Light, John M; Mennis, Jeremy; Flay, Brian R

    2017-09-01

    Few studies have examined in detail how specific behaviors of close friends put adolescents at risk for specific types of substance use. Using a prospective, longitudinal design, we examined how well the substance use of 248 young urban adolescents was predicted by perceptions of their 3 closest friends' problematic behaviors: (1) using substances, (2) offering substances, and (3) engaging with friends in risky behavior (substance use, illegal behavior, violent behavior, or high-risk sexual behavior). Longitudinal multivariate repeated measures models were tested to predict tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis use and perceived closeness was tested as a moderator of the effects of perceptions of problematic peer behavior. Perceptions of peer substance use were significantly associated with tobacco use, and closeness moderated the influence of peer substance use and offers to use substances on tobacco use. Perceptions of problematic peer behaviors were not significantly associated with alcohol use and closeness was not significant as a moderator. Perceptions of peer substance use was significantly associated with cannabis use, and closeness moderated the influence of perceptions of peer risk behaviors, peer substance use, and offers to use substances on cannabis use. Results implicate the importance of understanding problematic peer behavior within the context of close, adolescent friendships. Adolescents with close friends who were substance users, who made offers to use substances, and who engaged in risky behaviors were more likely to use tobacco and cannabis. Perceptions of young adolescents' close friends' behaviors influenced their substance use up to 2 years later. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. DFT-based prediction of reactivity of short-chain alcohol dehydrogenase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stawoska, I.; Dudzik, A.; Wasylewski, M.; Jemioła-Rzemińska, M.; Skoczowski, A.; Strzałka, K.; Szaleniec, M.

    2017-06-01

    The reaction mechanism of ketone reduction by short chain dehydrogenase/reductase, ( S)-1-phenylethanol dehydrogenase from Aromatoleum aromaticum, was studied with DFT methods using cluster model approach. The characteristics of the hydride transfer process were investigated based on reaction of acetophenone and its eight structural analogues. The results confirmed previously suggested concomitant transfer of hydride from NADH to carbonyl C atom of the substrate with proton transfer from Tyr to carbonyl O atom. However, additional coupled motion of the next proton in the proton-relay system, between O2' ribose hydroxyl and Tyr154 was observed. The protonation of Lys158 seems not to affect the pKa of Tyr154, as the stable tyrosyl anion was observed only for a neutral Lys158 in the high pH model. The calculated reaction energies and reaction barriers were calibrated by calorimetric and kinetic methods. This allowed an excellent prediction of the reaction enthalpies (R2 = 0.93) and a good prediction of the reaction kinetics (R2 = 0.89). The observed relations were validated in prediction of log K eq obtained for real whole-cell reactor systems that modelled industrial synthesis of S-alcohols.

  17. Anti-bacterial efficacy of alcoholic hand rubs in the Kenyan market, 2015.

    PubMed

    Ochwoto, Missiani; Muita, Lucy; Talaam, Keith; Wanjala, Cecilia; Ogeto, Frank; Wachira, Faith; Osman, Saida; Kimotho, James; Ndegwa, Linus

    2017-01-01

    Hand hygiene is known to be effective in preventing hospital and community-acquired infections. The increasing number of hand sanitizer brands in Kenyan hospitals and consumer outlets is of concern. Thus the main aim of this study was to evaluate the anti-bacterial efficacy and organoleptic properties of these hand sanitizers in Kenya. This was an experimental, laboratory-based study of 14 different brands of hand sanitizers (coded HS1-14) available in various retail outlets and hospitals in Kenya. Efficacy was evaluated using standard non-pathogenic Escherichia coli (ATCC 25922), Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC 27853) as per the European Standard (EN). The logarithmic reduction factors (RF) were assessed at baseline and after treatment, and log reduction then calculated. Ten and 25 healthy volunteers participated in the efficacy and organoleptic studies respectively. Four (28.6%) hand sanitizers (HS12, HS9, HS13 and HS14) showed a 5.9 reduction factor on all the three bacteria strains. Seven (50%) hand sanitizers had efficacies of <3 against all the three bacteria strains used. Efficacy on E. Coli was higher compared to the other pathogens. Three hand sanitizers were efficacious on one of the pathogens and not the other. In terms of organoleptic properties, gel-based formulations were rated far higher than the liquid based formulations brands. Fifty percent (50%) of the selected hand sanitizers in the Kenyan market have efficacy that falls below the World Health Organization (WHO) and DIN EN 1500:2013. Of the 14 hand sanitizers found in the Kenyan market, only four showed efficacies that were comparable to the WHO-formulation. There is a need to evaluate how many of these products with <3 efficacy that have been incorporated into the health system for hand hygiene and the country's policy on regulations on their usage.

  18. The Combination of Marketed Antagonists of α1b-Adrenergic and 5-HT2A Receptors Inhibits Behavioral Sensitization and Preference to Alcohol in Mice: A Promising Approach for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence

    PubMed Central

    Trovero, Fabrice; David, Sabrina; Bernard, Philippe; Puech, Alain; Bizot, Jean-Charles; Tassin, Jean-Pol

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol-dependence is a chronic disease with a dramatic and expensive social impact. Previous studies have indicated that the blockade of two monoaminergic receptors, α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A, could inhibit the development of behavioral sensitization to drugs of abuse, a hallmark of drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviors in rodents. Here, in order to develop a potential therapeutic treatment of alcohol dependence in humans, we have blocked these two monoaminergic receptors by a combination of antagonists already approved by Health Agencies. We show that the association of ifenprodil (1 mg/kg) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) (α1-adrenergic and 5-HT2 receptor antagonists marketed as Vadilex ® and Periactine ® in France, respectively) blocks behavioral sensitization to amphetamine in C57Bl6 mice and to alcohol in DBA2 mice. Moreover, this combination of antagonists inhibits alcohol intake in mice habituated to alcohol (10% v/v) and reverses their alcohol preference. Finally, in order to verify that the effect of ifenprodil was not due to its anti-NMDA receptors property, we have shown that a combination of prazosin (0.5 mg/kg, an α1b-adrenergic antagonist, Mini-Press ® in France) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) could also reverse alcohol preference. Altogether these findings strongly suggest that combined prazosin and cyproheptadine could be efficient as a therapy to treat alcoholism in humans. Finally, because α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A receptors blockade also inhibits behavioral sensitization to psychostimulants, opioids and tobacco, it cannot be excluded that this combination will exhibit some efficacy in the treatment of addiction to other abused drugs. PMID:26968030

  19. The Combination of Marketed Antagonists of α1b-Adrenergic and 5-HT2A Receptors Inhibits Behavioral Sensitization and Preference to Alcohol in Mice: A Promising Approach for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence.

    PubMed

    Trovero, Fabrice; David, Sabrina; Bernard, Philippe; Puech, Alain; Bizot, Jean-Charles; Tassin, Jean-Pol

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol-dependence is a chronic disease with a dramatic and expensive social impact. Previous studies have indicated that the blockade of two monoaminergic receptors, α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A, could inhibit the development of behavioral sensitization to drugs of abuse, a hallmark of drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviors in rodents. Here, in order to develop a potential therapeutic treatment of alcohol dependence in humans, we have blocked these two monoaminergic receptors by a combination of antagonists already approved by Health Agencies. We show that the association of ifenprodil (1 mg/kg) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) (α1-adrenergic and 5-HT2 receptor antagonists marketed as Vadilex ® and Periactine ® in France, respectively) blocks behavioral sensitization to amphetamine in C57Bl6 mice and to alcohol in DBA2 mice. Moreover, this combination of antagonists inhibits alcohol intake in mice habituated to alcohol (10% v/v) and reverses their alcohol preference. Finally, in order to verify that the effect of ifenprodil was not due to its anti-NMDA receptors property, we have shown that a combination of prazosin (0.5 mg/kg, an α1b-adrenergic antagonist, Mini-Press ® in France) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) could also reverse alcohol preference. Altogether these findings strongly suggest that combined prazosin and cyproheptadine could be efficient as a therapy to treat alcoholism in humans. Finally, because α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A receptors blockade also inhibits behavioral sensitization to psychostimulants, opioids and tobacco, it cannot be excluded that this combination will exhibit some efficacy in the treatment of addiction to other abused drugs.

  20. The Utility of the Prototype/Willingness Model in Predicting Alcohol Use among North American Indigenous Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Armenta, Brian E.; Hautala, Dane S.; Whitbeck, Les B.

    2015-01-01

    In the present study, we considered the utility of the prototype/willingness model in predicting alcohol use among North-American Indigenous adolescents. Specifically, using longitudinal data, we examined the associations among subjective drinking norms, positive drinker prototypes, drinking expectations (as a proxy of drinking willingness), and…

  1. The Utility of the Prototype/Willingness Model in Predicting Alcohol Use among North American Indigenous Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Armenta, Brian E.; Hautala, Dane S.; Whitbeck, Les B.

    2015-01-01

    In the present study, we considered the utility of the prototype/willingness model in predicting alcohol use among North-American Indigenous adolescents. Specifically, using longitudinal data, we examined the associations among subjective drinking norms, positive drinker prototypes, drinking expectations (as a proxy of drinking willingness), and…

  2. Predicting drunk driving: contribution of alcohol use and related problems, traffic behaviour, personality and platelet monoamine oxidase (MAO) activity.

    PubMed

    Eensoo, Diva; Paaver, Marika; Harro, Maarike; Harro, Jaanus

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the study was to characterize the predictive value of socio-economic data, alcohol consumption measures, smoking, platelet monoamine oxidase (MAO) activity, traffic behaviour habits and impulsivity measures for actual drunk driving. Data were collected from 203 male drunk driving offenders and 211 control subjects using self-reported questionnaires, and blood samples were obtained from the two groups. We identified the combination of variables, which predicted correctly, approximately 80% of the subjects' belonging to the drunk driving and control groups. Significant independent discriminators in the final model were, among the health-behaviour measures, alcohol-related problems, frequency of using alcohol, the amount of alcohol consumed and smoking. Predictive traffic behaviour measures were seat belt use and paying for parking. Among the impulsivity measures, dysfunctional impulsivity was the best predictor; platelet MAO activity and age also had an independent predictive value. Our results support the notion that drunk driving is the result of a combination of various behavioural, biological and personality-related risk factors.

  3. Inhibition during early adolescence predicts alcohol and marijuana use by late adolescence.

    PubMed

    Squeglia, Lindsay M; Jacobus, Joanna; Nguyen-Louie, Tam T; Tapert, Susan F

    2014-09-01

    Adolescent substance use has been associated with poorer neuropsychological functioning, but it is unclear if deficits predate or follow the onset of use. The goal of this prospective study was to understand how neuropsychological functioning during early adolescence could predict substance use by late adolescence. At baseline, participants were 175 substance-use-naïve healthy 12- to 14-year-olds (41% female) recruited from local schools. Participants completed extensive interviews and neuropsychological tests. Each year, participants' substance use was assessed. By late adolescence (ages 17 to 18), 105 participants transitioned into substance use and 75 remained substance-naïve. Hierarchical linear regressions examined how baseline cognitive performance predicted subsequent substance use, controlling for common substance use risk factors (i.e., family history, externalizing behaviors, gender, pubertal development, and age). Poorer baseline performance on tests of cognitive inhibition-interference predicted higher follow-up peak drinks on an occasion (β = -.15; p < .001), more days of drinking (β = -.15; p < .001), and more marijuana use days (β = -.17; p < .001) by ages 17 to 18, above and beyond covariates. Performances on short-term memory, sustained attention, verbal learning and memory, visuospatial functioning, and spatial planning did not predict subsequent substance involvement (ps > .05). Compromised inhibitory functioning during early adolescence prior to the onset of substance use was related to more frequent and intense alcohol and marijuana use by late adolescence. Inhibition performance could help identify teens at risk for initiating heavy substance use during adolescence, and potentially could be modified to improve outcome. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. Inhibition during Early Adolescence Predicts Alcohol and Marijuana Use by Late Adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Squeglia, Lindsay M.; Jacobus, Joanna; Nguyen-Louie, Tam T.; Tapert, Susan F.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Adolescent substance use has been associated with poorer neuropsychological functioning, but it is unclear if deficits predate or follow the onset of use. The goal of this prospective study was to understand how neuropsychological functioning during early adolescence could predict substance use by late adolescence. Method At baseline, participants were 175 substance use-naïve healthy 12–14 year-olds (41% female) recruited from local schools. Participants completed extensive interviews and neuropsychological tests. Each year, participants’ substance use was assessed. By late adolescence (ages 17–18), 105 participants transitioned into substance use, while 75 remained substance-naïve. Hierarchical linear regressions examined how baseline cognitive performance predicted subsequent substance use, controlling for common substance use risk factors (i.e., family history, externalizing behaviors, gender, pubertal development, and age). Results Poorer baseline performance on tests of cognitive inhibition-interference predicted higher follow-up peak drinks on an occasion (β=−.15; p<.001), more days of drinking (β=−.15; p<.001), and more marijuana use days (β=−.17; p<.001) by ages 17–18, above and beyond covariates. Performances on short term memory, sustained attention, verbal learning and memory, visuospatial functioning, and spatial planning did not predict subsequent substance involvement (ps > .05). Conclusions Compromised inhibitory functioning during early adolescence prior to the onset of substance use was related to more frequent and intense alcohol and marijuana use by late adolescence. Inhibition performance could help identify teens at risk for initiating heavy substance use during adolescence, and potentially could be modified to improve outcome. PMID:24749728

  5. How well does the theory of planned behaviour predict alcohol consumption? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Cooke, Richard; Dahdah, Mary; Norman, Paul; French, David P

    2016-06-01

    This study aimed to quantify correlations between theory of planned behaviour (TPB) variables and (i) intentions to consume alcohol and (ii) alcohol consumption. Systematic literature searches identified 40 eligible studies that were meta-analysed. Three moderator analyses were conducted: pattern of consumption, gender of participants and age of participants. Across studies, intentions had the strongest relationship with attitudes (r+ = .62), followed by subjective norms (r+ = .47) and perceived behavioural control (PBC; r+ = .31). Self-efficacy (SE) had a stronger relationship with intentions (r+ = .48) compared with perceived control (PC; r+ = -.10). Intention had the strongest relationship with alcohol consumption (r+ = .54), followed by SE (r+ = .41). In contrast, PBC and PC had negative relationships with alcohol consumption (r+ = -.05 and -.13, respectively). All moderators affected TPB relationships. Patterns of consumption with clear definitions had stronger TPB relations, females reported stronger attitude-intention relations than males, and adults reported stronger attitude-intention and SE-intention relations than adolescents. Recommendations for future research include targeting attitudes and intentions in interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, using clear definitions of alcohol consumption in TPB items to improve prediction and assessing SE when investigating risk behaviours.

  6. How well does the theory of planned behaviour predict alcohol consumption? A systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Cooke, Richard; Dahdah, Mary; Norman, Paul; French, David P.

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to quantify correlations between theory of planned behaviour (TPB) variables and (i) intentions to consume alcohol and (ii) alcohol consumption. Systematic literature searches identified 40 eligible studies that were meta-analysed. Three moderator analyses were conducted: pattern of consumption, gender of participants and age of participants. Across studies, intentions had the strongest relationship with attitudes (r + = .62), followed by subjective norms (r + = .47) and perceived behavioural control (PBC; r + = .31). Self-efficacy (SE) had a stronger relationship with intentions (r + = .48) compared with perceived control (PC; r + = −.10). Intention had the strongest relationship with alcohol consumption (r + = .54), followed by SE (r + = .41). In contrast, PBC and PC had negative relationships with alcohol consumption (r + = −.05 and −.13, respectively). All moderators affected TPB relationships. Patterns of consumption with clear definitions had stronger TPB relations, females reported stronger attitude–intention relations than males, and adults reported stronger attitude–intention and SE–intention relations than adolescents. Recommendations for future research include targeting attitudes and intentions in interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, using clear definitions of alcohol consumption in TPB items to improve prediction and assessing SE when investigating risk behaviours. PMID:25089611

  7. Hybrid intelligent methodology to design translation invariant morphological operators for Brazilian stock market prediction.

    PubMed

    Araújo, Ricardo de A

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents a hybrid intelligent methodology to design increasing translation invariant morphological operators applied to Brazilian stock market prediction (overcoming the random walk dilemma). The proposed Translation Invariant Morphological Robust Automatic phase-Adjustment (TIMRAA) method consists of a hybrid intelligent model composed of a Modular Morphological Neural Network (MMNN) with a Quantum-Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QIEA), which searches for the best time lags to reconstruct the phase space of the time series generator phenomenon and determines the initial (sub-optimal) parameters of the MMNN. Each individual of the QIEA population is further trained by the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm to improve the MMNN parameters supplied by the QIEA. Also, for each prediction model generated, it uses a behavioral statistical test and a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions observed in stock market time series. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed method through four Brazilian stock market time series, and the achieved results are discussed and compared to results found with random walk models and the previously introduced Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) and Morphological-Rank-Linear Time-lag Added Evolutionary Forecasting (MRLTAEF) methods.

  8. Predictive Utility of Brief Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) for human immunodeficiency virus antiretroviral medication nonadherence.

    PubMed

    Broyles, Lauren Matukaitis; Gordon, Adam J; Sereika, Susan M; Ryan, Christopher M; Erlen, Judith A

    2011-10-01

    Alcohol use negatively affects adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), thus human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) care providers need accurate, efficient assessments of alcohol use. Using existing data from an efficacy trial of 2 cognitive-behavioral ART adherence interventions, the authors sought to determine if results on 2 common alcohol screening tests (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test--Consumption [AUDIT-C] and its binge-related question [AUDIT-3]) predict ART nonadherence. Twenty-seven percent of the sample (n = 308) were positive on the AUDIT-C and 34% were positive on the AUDIT-3. In multivariate analyses, AUDIT-C-positive status predicted ART nonadherence after controlling for race, age, conscientiousness, and self-efficacy (P = .036). Although AUDIT-3-positive status was associated with ART nonadherence in unadjusted analyses, this relationship was not maintained in the final multivariate model. The AUDIT-C shows potential as an indirect screening tool for both at-risk drinking and ART nonadherence, underscoring the relationship between alcohol and chronic disease management.

  9. Prediction of alcohol drinking in adolescents: Personality-traits, behavior, brain responses, and genetic variations in the context of reward sensitivity.

    PubMed

    Heinrich, Angela; Müller, Kathrin U; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J; Bokde, Arun L W; Bromberg, Uli; Büchel, Christian; Conrod, Patricia; Fauth-Bühler, Mira; Papadopoulos, Dimitri; Gallinat, Jürgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Ittermann, Bernd; Mann, Karl; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Paus, Tomáš; Pausova, Zdenka; Smolka, Michael; Ströhle, Andreas; Rietschel, Marcella; Flor, Herta; Schumann, Gunter; Nees, Frauke

    2016-07-01

    Adolescence is a time that can set the course of alcohol abuse later in life. Sensitivity to reward on multiple levels is a major factor in this development. We examined 736 adolescents from the IMAGEN longitudinal study for alcohol drinking during early (mean age=14.37) and again later (mean age=16.45) adolescence. Conducting structural equation modeling we evaluated the contribution of reward-related personality traits, behavior, brain responses and candidate genes. Personality seems to be most important in explaining alcohol drinking in early adolescence. However, genetic variations in ANKK1 (rs1800497) and HOMER1 (rs7713917) play an equal role in predicting alcohol drinking two years later and are most important in predicting the increase in alcohol consumption. We hypothesize that the initiation of alcohol use may be driven more strongly by personality while the transition to increased alcohol use is more genetically influenced. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Cost-effectiveness of strategies to market and train primary health care physicians in brief intervention techniques for hazardous alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Gomel, M K; Wutzke, S E; Hardcastle, D M; Lapsley, H; Reznik, R B

    1998-07-01

    The cost-effectiveness of strategies to market and train primary care physicians in brief intervention for hazardous alcohol consumption was examined. Physicians were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies designed to promote the "uptake" of a brief intervention package for hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption. The strategies were direct mail, tele-marketing, or academic detailing. One hundred and twenty-seven of those physicians who requested the package during the marketing phase (phase 1) and who also agreed to participate in the training and support phase of the project (phase 2) were matched into one of three training and support conditions: training and no support, training and minimal support, training and maximal support. An additional 34 physicians were randomly selected and assigned to a control condition. The ultimate aim of training and support was to maximise physician screening and counselling rates. Tele-marketing was found to be more cost-effective than academic detailing and direct mail in promoting the uptake of the package. For the training and support phase costs and effects increased with the level of support, hence the issue to be considered is whether the additional cost incurred in moving from one strategy to another is warranted given the increase in the level of outcome.

  11. Investigation of Aggravating Psychosocial Factors on Health and Predictability of Smoking and Alcohol Use in Post Adolescent Students.

    PubMed

    Barmpagianni, Effrosyni; Travlos, Antonios; Kalokairinou, Athina; Sachlas, Athanasios; Zyga, Sofia

    2013-04-18

    Purpose of this study is to explore those factors which affect the health of students in postadolescent age, focusing on smoking and alcohol use, especially in regard to ways of predicting adoption of this behavior and its frequency to detect future users of tobacco and alcohol use but also high-risk groups, i.e. those people who are led to abuses. On the basis of the research part is the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the axes of which are to be investigated. Specifically, the factors evaluated, except for population parameters, behavioral attitudes, i.e. attitudes towards the behavior of tobacco use and alcohol regulations subjective perceptions and perceptions of control, perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy. Intention is explored to continue or start using tobacco and alcohol in the future and evaluate the behavior. The sample consisted of 138 students of postadolescent age, 18-25 years of both sexes, all of the University of Peloponnese and the Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Department of Sparta, Greece. The results of a series of statistical analysis, via SPSS 21.0 statistical program revealed the predictive power of perceived behavioral control and subjective norms to the intention of interpreting 64% of the variance of the latter, of the attitudes toward alcohol in relation to intention that interpret 69% of the variance, of the normative beliefs toward smoking with 69% range of interpretation to the dependent variable, of the perceived behavioral control of smoking with 72% and of the attitudes toward smoking with 77% of interpretation. The results demonstrate the significance and application in universities and technological educational institutes appropriate primary preventive interventions for students nonusers of tobacco and alcohol and appropriate programs of secondary and tertiary prevention in heavy users of tobacco and alcohol use and high-risk individual.

  12. Investigation of Aggravating Psychosocial Factors on Health and Predictability of Smoking and Alcohol Use in Post Adolescent Students

    PubMed Central

    Barmpagianni, Effrosyni; Travlos, Antonios; Kalokairinou, Athina; Sachlas, Athanasios; Zyga, Sofia

    2013-01-01

    Purpose of this study is to explore those factors which affect the health of students in postadolescent age, focusing on smoking and alcohol use, especially in regard to ways of predicting adoption of this behavior and its frequency to detect future users of tobacco and alcohol use but also high-risk groups, i.e. those people who are led to abuses. On the basis of the research part is the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the axes of which are to be investigated. Specifically, the factors evaluated, except for population parameters, behavioral attitudes, i.e. attitudes towards the behavior of tobacco use and alcohol regulations subjective perceptions and perceptions of control, perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy. Intention is explored to continue or start using tobacco and alcohol in the future and evaluate the behavior. The sample consisted of 138 students of postadolescent age, 18-25 years of both sexes, all of the University of Peloponnese and the Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Department of Sparta, Greece. The results of a series of statistical analysis, via SPSS 21.0 statistical program revealed the predictive power of perceived behavioral control and subjective norms to the intention of interpreting 64% of the variance of the latter, of the attitudes toward alcohol in relation to intention that interpret 69% of the variance, of the normative beliefs toward smoking with 69% range of interpretation to the dependent variable, of the perceived behavioral control of smoking with 72% and of the attitudes toward smoking with 77% of interpretation. The results demonstrate the significance and application in universities and technological educational institutes appropriate primary preventive interventions for students nonusers of tobacco and alcohol and appropriate programs of secondary and tertiary prevention in heavy users of tobacco and alcohol use and high-risk individual. PMID:26973900

  13. Strategic Self-Presentation or Authentic Communication? Predicting Adolescents' Alcohol References on Social Media.

    PubMed

    Geusens, Femke; Beullens, Kathleen

    2017-01-01

    The current study is one of the first to examine how self-reported alcohol consumption, friends' perceived alcohol consumption, and the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references on social networking sites (SNS) is associated with adolescents' sharing of alcohol references on SNS. A cross-sectional paper-and-pencil survey was administered among 3,172 adolescents (n = 3,133 used for analyses, mean age = 17.16 years, SD = 0.93; 50.7% male). Structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses. First, the results indicated that both self-reported drinking behavior and the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references were related to sharing alcohol references on SNS, but the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references was a stronger predictor than self-reported drinking behavior. Friends' perceived drinking behavior was not a significant predictor. In the second place, self-reported drinking behavior was a stronger predictor for girls than for boys, whereas the perceived number of friends sharing alcohol references was a stronger predictor for boys than for girls. Adolescents' alcohol-related self-representation is in line with their alcohol consumption and is also strongly related to what their friends are sharing. Thus, adolescents appear to communicate authentically about their drinking experiences, but the decision to do so is heavily influenced by the prevailing social norm regarding alcohol-related communication.

  14. Predicting alcohol consumption and binge drinking in company employees: an application of planned behaviour and self-determination theories.

    PubMed

    Hagger, Martin S; Lonsdale, Adam J; Hein, Vello; Koka, Andre; Lintunen, Taru; Pasi, Heidi; Lindwall, Magnus; Rudolfsson, Lisa; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L D

    2012-05-01

    This study tested an integrated model of the psychosocial determinants of alcohol-related behaviour among company employees from four nations. A motivational sequence was proposed in which motivational orientations from self-determination theory influenced intentions to consume alcohol within guideline limits and alcohol-related behaviour via the mediation of the theory of planned behaviour variables of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control (PBC). A three-wave prospective design using self-reported psychological and behavioural measures. Company employees (N= 486, males = 225, females = 261; M age = 30.41, SD= 8.31) from four nations (Estonia, Finland, Sweden, and UK) completed measures of autonomous and controlled motivation from self-determination theory, attitudes, subjective norms, PBC, intentions from the theory of planned behaviour, and self-reported measures of past alcohol consumption and binge-drinking occasions at the first time point (time 1). Follow-up psychological and behavioural measures were taken one month later (time 2) and follow-up behavioural measures taken a further 2 months later (time 3). Path analyses supported the motivational sequence with identified regulation (time 1), predicting intentions (time 1), and alcohol units consumed (time 2). The effects were indirect via the mediation of attitudes and PBC (time 1). A similar pattern of effects was found for the effect of time 2 psychological variables on time 3 units of alcohol consumed. There was little support for the effects of the psychological variables on binge-drinking behaviour. Findings provide new information on the psychosocial determinants of alcohol behaviour in company employees and the processes involved. Results may provide impetus for the development of interventions to reduce alcohol consumption. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  15. Attitudes and behaviour predict women's intention to drink alcohol during pregnancy: the challenge for health professionals.

    PubMed

    Peadon, Elizabeth; Payne, Janet; Henley, Nadine; D'Antoine, Heather; Bartu, Anne; O'Leary, Colleen; Bower, Carol; Elliott, Elizabeth J

    2011-07-22

    To explore women's alcohol consumption in pregnancy, and potential predictors of alcohol consumption in pregnancy including: demographic characteristics; and women's knowledge and attitudes regarding alcohol consumption in pregnancy and its effects on the fetus. We conducted a national cross-sectional survey via computer assisted telephone interview of 1103 Australian women aged 18 to 45 years. Participants were randomly selected from the Electronic White Pages. Pregnant women were not eligible to participate. Quotas were set for age groups and a minimum of 100 participants per state to ensure a national sample reflecting the population. The questionnaire was based on a Health Canada survey with additional questions constructed by the investigators. Descriptive statistics were calculated and logistic regression analyses were used to assess associations of alcohol consumption in pregnancy with participants' characteristics, knowledge and attitudes. The majority of women (89.4%) had consumed alcohol in the last 12 months. During their last pregnancy (n = 700), 34.1% drank alcohol. When asked what they would do if planning a pregnancy (n = 1103), 31.6% said they would consume alcohol and 4.8% would smoke. Intention to consume alcohol in a future pregnancy was associated with: alcohol use in the last pregnancy (adjusted OR (aOR) 43.9; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 27.0 to 71.4); neutral or positive attitudes towards alcohol use in pregnancy (aOR 5.1; 95% CI 3.6 to 7.1); intention to smoke in a future pregnancy (aOR 4.7; 95% CI 2.5 to 9.0); and more frequent and higher current alcohol consumption. Women's past pregnancy and current drinking behaviour, and attitudes to alcohol use in pregnancy were the strongest predictors of alcohol consumption in pregnancy. Targeted interventions for women at higher risk of alcohol consumption in pregnancy are needed to change women's risk perception and behaviour.

  16. Markets

    Treesearch

    David N. Wear; Jeffrey Prestemon; Robert Huggett; Douglas Carter

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsAlthough timber production in the South more than doubled from the 1960s to the late 1990s, output levels have declined over the last 10 years, signaling structural changes in timber markets.For softwood products, production declines are most clearly related to demand issues. Demand for softwood solid wood products...

  17. Developmental trends in alcohol use initiation and escalation from early- to middle-adolescence: Prediction by urgency and trait affect

    PubMed Central

    Spillane, Nichea S.; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Jackson, Kristina M.

    2016-01-01

    Studies on adolescent drinking have not always been able to distinguish between initiation and escalation of drinking, because many studies include samples in which initiation has already occurred; hence initiation and escalation are often confounded. The present study draws from a dual-process theoretical framework to investigate: if changes in the likelihood of drinking initiation and escalation are predicted by a tendency towards rash action when experiencing positive and negative emotions (positive and negative urgency); and whether trait positive and negative affect moderate such effects. Alcohol naïve adolescents (n=944; age: M=12.16, SD=.96; 52% female) completed 6 semi-annual assessments of trait urgency and affect (wave-1) and alcohol use (waves 2–6). A two-part random-effects model was used to estimate changes in the likelihood of any alcohol use vs. escalation in the volume of use amongst initiators. Main effects suggest a significant association between positive affect and change in level of alcohol use amongst initiators, such that lower positive affect predicted increased alcohol involvement. This main effect was qualified by a significant interaction between positive urgency and positive affect predicting changes in the escalation of drinking, such that the effect of positive urgency was augmented for those high on trait positive affect, though only at extremely high levels of positive affect. Results suggest risk factors in the development of drinking depend on whether initiation or escalation is investigated. A more nuanced understanding of the early developmental phases of alcohol involvement can inform prevention and intervention efforts. PMID:27031086

  18. Developmental trends in alcohol use initiation and escalation from early to middle adolescence: Prediction by urgency and trait affect.

    PubMed

    Lopez-Vergara, Hector I; Spillane, Nichea S; Merrill, Jennifer E; Jackson, Kristina M

    2016-08-01

    Studies on adolescent drinking have not always been able to distinguish between initiation and escalation of drinking, because many studies include samples in which initiation has already occurred; hence, initiation and escalation are often confounded. The present study draws from a dual-process theoretical framework to investigate: if changes in the likelihood of drinking initiation and escalation are predicted by a tendency toward rash action when experiencing positive and negative emotions (positive and negative urgency) and whether trait positive and negative affect moderate such effects. Alcohol naïve adolescents (n = 944; age M = 12.16, SD = .96; 52% female) completed 6 semiannual assessments of trait urgency and affect (Wave 1) and alcohol use (Waves 2-6). A 2-part random-effects model was used to estimate changes in the likelihood of any alcohol use versus escalation in the volume of use among initiators. Main effects suggest a significant association between positive affect and change in level of alcohol use among initiators, such that lower positive affect predicted increased alcohol involvement. This main effect was qualified by a significant interaction between positive urgency and positive affect predicting changes in the escalation of drinking, such that the effect of positive urgency was augmented for those high on trait positive affect, though only at extremely high levels of positive affect. Results suggest risk factors in the development of drinking depend on whether initiation or escalation is investigated. A more nuanced understanding of the early developmental phases of alcohol involvement can inform prevention and intervention efforts. (PsycINFO Database Record

  19. Systemic inflammatory response and serum lipopolysaccharide levels predict multiple organ failure and death in alcoholic hepatitis.

    PubMed

    Michelena, Javier; Altamirano, José; Abraldes, Juan G; Affò, Silvia; Morales-Ibanez, Oriol; Sancho-Bru, Pau; Dominguez, Marlene; García-Pagán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Javier; Arroyo, Vicente; Ginès, Pere; Louvet, Alexandre; Mathurin, Philippe; Mehal, Wajahat Z; Caballería, Juan; Bataller, Ramón

    2015-09-01

    Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) frequently progresses to multiple organ failure (MOF) and death. However, the driving factors are largely unknown. At admission, patients with AH often show criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) even in the absence of an infection. We hypothesize that the presence of SIRS may predispose to MOF and death. To test this hypothesis, we studied a cohort including 162 patients with biopsy-proven AH. The presence of SIRS and infections was assessed in all patients, and multivariate analyses identified variables independently associated with MOF and 90-day mortality. At admission, 32 (19.8%) patients were diagnosed with a bacterial infection, while 75 (46.3%) fulfilled SIRS criteria; 58 patients (35.8%) developed MOF during hospitalization. Short-term mortality was significantly higher among patients who developed MOF (62.1% versus 3.8%, P < 0.001). The presence of SIRS was a major predictor of MOF (odds ratio = 2.69, P = 0.025) and strongly correlated with mortality. Importantly, the course of patients with SIRS with and without infection was similar in terms of MOF development and short-term mortality. Finally, we sought to identify serum markers that differentiate SIRS with and without infection. We studied serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lipopolysaccharide at admission. All of them predicted mortality. Procalcitonin, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum levels identified those patients with SIRS and infection. Lipopolysaccharide serum levels predicted MOF and the response to prednisolone. In the presence or absence of infections, SIRS is a major determinant of MOF and mortality in AH, and the mechanisms involved in the development of SIRS should be investigated; procalcitonin serum levels can help to identify patients with infection, and lipopolysaccharide levels may help to predict mortality and the response to steroids. © 2015 by the American Association

  20. Systemic Inflammatory Response and Serum Lipopolysaccharide Levels Predict Multiple Organ Failure and Death in Alcoholic Hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Michelena, Javier; Altamirano, José; Abraldes, Juan G.; Affò, Silvia; Morales-Ibanez, Oriol; Sancho-Bru, Pau; Dominguez, Marlene; García-Pagán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Javier; Arroyo, Vicente; Ginès, Pere; Louvet, Alexandre; Mathurin, Philippe; Mehal, Wajahat Z.; Caballería, Juan; Bataller, Ramón

    2015-01-01

    Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) frequently progresses to multiple organ failure (MOF) and death. However, the driving factors are largely unknown. At admission, patients with AH often show criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) even in the absence of an infection. We hypothesize that the presence of SIRS may predispose to MOF and death. To test this hypothesis, we studied a cohort including 162 patients with biopsy-proven AH. The presence of SIRS and infections was assessed in all patients, and multivariate analyses identified variables independently associated with MOF and 90-day mortality. At admission, 32 (19.8%) patients were diagnosed with a bacterial infection, while 75 (46.3%) fulfilled SIRS criteria; 58 patients (35.8%) developed MOF during hospitalization. Short-term mortality was significantly higher among patients who developed MOF (62.1% versus 3.8%, P <0.001). The presence of SIRS was a major predictor of MOF (odds ratio = 2.69, P=0.025) and strongly correlated with mortality. Importantly, the course of patients with SIRS with and without infection was similar in terms of MOF development and short-term mortality. Finally, we sought to identify serum markers that differentiate SIRS with and without infection. We studied serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lipopolysaccharide at admission. All of them predicted mortality. Procalcitonin, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum levels identified those patients with SIRS and infection. Lipopolysaccharide serum levels predicted MOF and the response to prednisolone. Conclusion In the presence or absence of infections, SIRS is a major determinant of MOF and mortality in AH, and the mechanisms involved in the development of SIRS should be investigated; procalcitonin serum levels can help to identify patients with infection, and lipopolysaccharide levels may help to predict mortality and the response to steroids. PMID:25761863

  1. Betting and Belief: Modeling the Impact of Prediction Markets on Public Attribution of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, J. M.; Nay, J. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2016-12-01

    Despite overwhelming scientific evidence and an almost complete consensus among scientists, a large fraction of the American public is not convinced that global warming is anthropogenic. This doubt correlates strongly with political, ideological, and cultural orientation. [1] It has been proposed that people who do not trust climate scientists tend to trust markets, so prediction markets might be able to influence their beliefs about the causes of climate change. [2] We present results from an agent-based simulation of a prediction market in which traders invest based on their beliefs about what drives global temperature change (here, either CO2 concentration or total solar irradiance (TSI), which is a popular hypothesis among many who doubt the dominant role of CO2). At each time step, traders use historical and observed temperatures and projected future forcings (CO2 or TSI) to update Bayesian posterior probability distributions for future temperatures, conditional on their belief about what drives climate change. Traders then bet on future temperatures by trading in climate futures. Trading proceeds by a continuous double auction. Traders are randomly assigned initial beliefs about climate change, and they have some probability of changing their beliefs to match those of the most successful traders in their social network. We simulate two alternate realities in which the global temperature is controlled either by CO2 or by TSI, with stochastic noise. In both cases traders' beliefs converge, with a large majority reaching agreement on the actual cause of climate change. This convergence is robust, but the speed with which consensus emerges depends on characteristics of the traders' psychology and the structure of the market. Our model can serve as a test-bed for studying how beliefs might evolve under different market structures and different modes of decision-making and belief-change. We will report progress on studying alternate models of belief-change. This

  2. Predicting client attendance at further treatment following drug and alcohol detoxification: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Peter J; Leung, Joanne; Deane, Frank P; Lyons, Geoffrey C B

    2016-11-01

    Despite clinical recommendations that further treatment is critical for successful recovery following drug and alcohol detoxification, a large proportion of clients fail to attend treatment after detoxification. In this study, individual factors and constructs based on motivational and volitional models of health behaviour were examined as predictors of post-detoxification treatment attendance. The sample consisted of 220 substance-dependent individuals participating in short-term detoxification programs provided by The Australian Salvation Army. The Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions were used to predict attendance at subsequent treatment. Follow-up data were collected for 177 participants (81%), with 104 (80%) of those participants reporting that they had either attended further formal treatment (e.g. residential rehabilitation programs, outpatient counselling) or mutual support groups in the 2 weeks after leaving the detoxification program. Logistic regression examined the predictors of further treatment attendance. The full model accounted for 21% of the variance in treatment attendance, with attitude and Implementation Intentions contributing significantly to the prediction. Findings from the present study would suggest that assisting clients to develop a specific treatment plan, as well as helping clients to build positive perceptions about subsequent treatment, will promote greater attendance at further treatment following detoxification. [Kelly PJ, Leung J, Deane FP, Lyons GCB. Predicting client attendance at further treatment following drug and alcohol detoxification: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:678-685]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  3. Alcohol use longitudinally predicts adjustment and impairment in college students with ADHD: The role of executive functions.

    PubMed

    Langberg, Joshua M; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Kipperman, Kristen L; Molitor, Stephen J; Eddy, Laura D

    2015-06-01

    The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether alcohol consumption longitudinally predicts the adjustment, overall functioning, and grade point average (GPA) of college students with ADHD and to determine whether self-report of executive functioning (EF) mediates these relationships. Sixty-two college students comprehensively diagnosed with ADHD completed ratings at the beginning and end of the school year. Regression analyses revealed that alcohol consumption rated at the beginning of the year significantly predicted self-report of adjustment and overall impairment at the end of the year, above and beyond ADHD symptoms and baseline levels of adjustment/impairment but did not predict GPA. Exploratory multiple mediator analyses suggest that alcohol use impacts impairment primarily through EF deficits in self-motivation. EF deficits in the motivation to refrain from pursuing immediately rewarding behaviors in order to work toward long-term goals appear to be particularly important in understanding why college students with ADHD who consume alcohol have a higher likelihood of experiencing significant negative outcomes. The implications of these findings for the prevention of the negative functional outcomes often experienced by college students with ADHD are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

  4. Separate dimensions of anxiety differentially predict alcohol use among male juvenile offenders.

    PubMed

    Nichter, Brandon; Chassin, Laurie

    2015-11-01

    Although research has documented robust prospective relationships between externalizing symptomatology and subsequent adolescent alcohol use, the extent to which internalizing symptoms such as anxiety may increase risk for alcohol consumption remains controversial. Recent evidence suggests that one possible reason for mixed findings is that separate dimensions of anxiety differentially confer risk for alcohol use. The present study tested two dimensions of anxiety, worry and physiological anxiety symptoms, as predictors of alcohol use and misuse in a longitudinal sample of juvenile offenders. Participants were 818 male juvenile offenders drawn from a larger multi-site, longitudinal study. Zero-inflated Poisson regression models estimated the influence of anxiety symptoms on typical drinking quantity, frequency of binge drinking, and alcohol dependence symptoms. Results indicate that physiological anxiety and worry symptoms showed differential relations with alcohol use risk. Physiological anxiety was positively associated with increased risk for typical alcohol involvement, frequency of binge drinking, and alcohol dependence symptoms, whereas worry was negatively associated with all alcohol use outcomes. Current findings underscore the importance of considering anxiety as a multidimensional construct when examining the prospective relation between anxiety and adolescent alcohol use risk. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Quality of alcohol-based hand disinfectants and their regulatory status. Development and marketing authorisation.

    PubMed

    Stengele, Michael

    2008-10-01

    A 2005 survey showed that there are at least four legal product classifications for hand disinfectants in the European Union: medicinal products, biocidal products, cosmetics and medical devices. An internationally harmonized classification does not exist. The regulatory status of those products is defined at national level. In order to assure compliance with the regulations these four classifications provide different levels of official surveillance varying from product-specific marketing authorisations and production site audits to the obligation to just work in accordance with certain general guidelines. Biocidal product regulations cover eco-toxicological and toxicological aspects, but do not very much address to the customers' quality and efficacy expectations. In contrast, the medicinal product legislation is the most ambitious one claiming quality, safety, efficacy, and an independent benefit risk-assessment by an authority. In respect of ambition, the two remaining product categories--cosmetics and medical devices--rank between the both classifications mentioned above. For medical devices, it is the responsibility of the manufacturer to make sure the products meet defined essential requirements regarding quality, safety and performance and to have an appropriate quality assurance system implemented under third party control. For cosmetics there are some legal restrictions, but within these it is the sole responsibility of the manufacturer to ensure that the products are safe and fulfil their claims. This paper describes one way out of this increasingly complex situation, the definition of a single quality standard meeting the users' expectations as well as all legal requirements regardless of the specific sales country. This international quality standard for products would take priority over any individual national standard, to the benefit of users.

  6. Influence of Serum Sodium on MELD-Based Survival Prediction in Alcoholic Hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Vaa, Brianna E.; Asrani, Sumeet K.; Dunn, Winston; Kamath, Patrick S.; Shah, Vijay H.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) with the modified model including sodium (MELDNa) for predicting 180-day mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and determine the subset in whom serum sodium may enhance 180-day mortality prediction. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We examined 26 patients with AH enrolled in a prospective trial between June 1, 2004, and June 30, 2007, at Mayo Clinic. Logistic regression analysis was done to assess the effect of MELD and MELDNa scores on 180-day mortality. The C statistic was derived to compare MELD with MELDNa in patients with and without ascites. RESULTS: MELD (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.47; P=.007; C statistic, 0.81) and MELDNa (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.05-1.56; P=.008; C statistic, 0.78) were significant predictors of 180-day mortality in patients with AH. A MELD score of 27.0 and a MELDNa score of 28.0 had sensitivity of 76.5% and 87.5% and specificity of 64.9% and 52.5%, respectively. In patients with AH and ascites, MELDNa (OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.22-36.68; P=.008; C statistic, 0.97) was a better predictor of 180-day mortality than MELD (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.07-2.12; P=.006; C statistic, 0.90). A MELD score of 29.0 and a MELDNa score of 34.0 had sensitivity of 85.7% and 83.3% and specificity of 31.0% and 16.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: MELD and MELDNa were similar predictors of 180-day mortality; however, MELDNa was a better predictor of mortality than MELD in patients with ascites. Hyponatremia in patients with AH without ascites is not a predictor of mortality because it may have a dilutional basis secondary to excessive intake of low-osmolar alcohol. PMID:21193654

  7. Canary in a coal mine: does the plastic surgery market predict the american economy?

    PubMed

    Wong, Wendy W; Davis, Drew G; Son, Andrew K; Camp, Matthew C; Gupta, Subhas C

    2010-08-01

    Economic tools have been used in the past to predict the trends in plastic surgery procedures. Since 1992, U.S. cosmetic surgery volumes have increased overall, but the exact relationship between economic downturns and procedural volumes remains elusive. If an economic predicting role can be established from plastic surgery indicators, this could prove to be a very powerful tool. A rolling 3-month revenue average of an eight-plastic surgeon practice and various economic indicators were plotted and compared. An investigation of the U.S. procedural volumes was performed from the American Society of Plastic Surgeons statistics between 1996 and 2008. The correlations of different economic variables with plastic surgery volumes were evaluated. Lastly, search term frequencies were examined from 2004 to July of 2009 to study potential patient interest in major plastic surgery procedures. The self-payment revenue of the plastic surgery group consistently proved indicative of the market trends approximately 1 month in advance. The Standard and Poor's 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations, and Standard and Poor's Retail Index demonstrated a very close relationship with the income of our plastic surgery group. The frequency of Internet search terms showed a constant level of interest in the patient population despite economic downturns. The data demonstrate that examining plastic surgery revenue can be a useful tool to analyze and possibly predict trends, as it is driven by a market and shows a close correlation to many leading economic indicators. The persisting and increasing interest in plastic surgery suggests hope for a recovering and successful market in the near future.

  8. Alcoholic hepatitis histological score has high accuracy to predict 90-day mortality and response to steroids.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Patrícia; Silva, Marco; Rodrigues, Susana; Lopes, Joanne; Lopes, Susana; Macedo, Guilherme

    2016-06-01

    A histological classification system (AHHS) has been recently proposed to predict 90-day mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). We analyzed the spectrum of histological features in patients with AH and assessed the ability of AHHS for predicting both response to steroids and 90-day mortality. Retrospective study of patients admitted to our tertiary centre between 2010 and 2014 with biopsy-proven AH. Histological features were analyzed and AHHS value was calculated. Kaplan-Meyer curves were calculated to assess the ability of AHHS to predict response to steroids and 90-day mortality. We included 34 patients (70.6% men, mean age 48.5±8.9 years). Transjugular liver biopsy was performed 3.5±2.9 days after admission. Presence of bilirubinostasis (p=0.049), degree of bilirubinostasis (p<0.001), absence of megamitochondria (p<0.001) and degree of polymorphonuclear infiltration (p=0.018) were significantly associated with higher mortality at 90 days. Patients who responded to steroids had a significantly lower AHHS value than non-responders (5.4±0.9 vs 8.1±1.1, p=0.003). AAHS value was significantly higher in patients who died compared to patients who survived at 90 days (9.0±0.7 vs 5.0±0.9, p<0.001). AHHS predicted response to steroids [AUROC 0.90 (CI95% 0.742-1.000), p=0.004] and 90-day mortality [AUROC 1.0 (CI95% 1.0-1.0), p<0.001] with high accuracy. In this cohort of patients, presence and degree of bilirubinostasis, absence of megamitochondria and degree of PMN infiltration were significantly associated with 90-day mortality. AHHS had a high accuracy for predicting response to steroids and 90-day mortality in this cohort of patients. Copyright © 2016 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Wealth and price distribution by diffusive approximation in a repeated prediction market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, Daniele

    2017-04-01

    The approximate agents' wealth and price invariant densities of a repeated prediction market model is derived using the Fokker-Planck equation of the associated continuous-time jump process. We show that the approximation obtained from the evolution of log-wealth difference can be reliably exploited to compute all the quantities of interest in all the acceptable parameter space. When the risk aversion of the trader is high enough, we are able to derive an explicit closed-form solution for the price distribution which is asymptotically correct.

  10. Predicting drinking behavior and alcohol-related problems among fraternity and sorority members: examining the role of descriptive and injunctive norms.

    PubMed

    Larimer, Mary E; Turner, Aaron P; Mallett, Kimberly A; Geisner, Irene Markman

    2004-09-01

    The authors examined the relation between Greek students' perceptions of alcohol consumption in their pledge classes (descriptive norms) and acceptability of drinking (injunctive norms) and the ability of these normative influences to predict drinking behavior, alcohol-related negative consequences, and symptoms of alcohol dependence concurrently and prospectively over 1 year. Participants were 279 men and 303 women recruited from incoming pledge classes of 12 fraternities and 6 sororities, who completed measures of descriptive and injunctive norms, alcohol use, and consequences. Results revealed that descriptive norms significantly predicted concurrent drinking. After controlling for baseline drinking, injunctive norms significantly predicted drinking 1 year later and predicted alcohol-related consequences and dependency symptoms at baseline and follow-up. The potential to incorporate injunctive norms into preventive interventions is discussed.

  11. Predicting Drinking Behavior and Alcohol-Related Problems Among Fraternity and Sorority Members: Examining the Role of Descriptive and Injunctive Norms

    PubMed Central

    Larimer, Mary E.; Turner, Aaron P.; Mallett, Kimberly A.; Geisner, Irene Markman

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined the relation between Greek students’ perceptions of alcohol consumption in their pledge classes (descriptive norms) and acceptability of drinking (injunctive norms) and the ability of these normative influences to predict drinking behavior, alcohol-related negative consequences, and symptoms of alcohol dependence concurrently and prospectively over 1 year. Participants were 279 men and 303 women recruited from incoming pledge classes of 12 fraternities and 6 sororities, who completed measures of descriptive and injunctive norms, alcohol use, and consequences. Results revealed that descriptive norms significantly predicted concurrent drinking. After controlling for baseline drinking, injunctive norms significantly predicted drinking 1 year later and predicted alcohol-related consequences and dependency symptoms at baseline and follow-up. The potential to incorporate injunctive norms into preventive interventions is discussed. PMID:15482075

  12. The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

    2011-06-01

    Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

  13. Neurophysiological correlates of response inhibition predict relapse in detoxified alcoholic patients: some preliminary evidence from event-related potentials

    PubMed Central

    Petit, Géraldine; Cimochowska, Agnieszka; Kornreich, Charles; Hanak, Catherine; Verbanck, Paul; Campanella, Salvatore

    2014-01-01

    Background Alcohol dependence is a chronic relapsing disease. The impairment of response inhibition and alcohol-cue reactivity are the main cognitive mechanisms that trigger relapse. Despite the interaction suggested between the two processes, they have long been investigated as two different lines of research. The present study aimed to investigate the interaction between response inhibition and alcohol-cue reactivity and their potential link with relapse. Materials and methods Event-related potentials were recorded during a variant of a “go/no-go” task. Frequent and rare stimuli (to be inhibited) were superimposed on neutral, nonalcohol-related, and alcohol-related contexts. The task was administered following a 3-week detoxification course. Relapse outcome was measured after 3 months, using self-reported abstinence. There were 27 controls (seven females) and 27 patients (seven females), among whom 13 relapsed during the 3-month follow-up period. The no-go N2, no-go P3, and the “difference” wave (P3d) were examined with the aim of linking neural correlates of response inhibition on alcohol-related contexts to the observed relapse rate. Results Results showed that 1) at the behavioral level, alcohol-dependent patients made significantly more commission errors than controls (P<0.001), independently of context; 2) through the subtraction no-go P3 minus go P3, this inhibition deficit was neurophysiologically indexed in patients with greater P3d amplitudes (P=0.034); and 3) within the patient group, increased P3d amplitude enabled us to differentiate between future relapsers and nonrelapsers (P=0.026). Conclusion Our findings suggest that recently detoxified alcoholics are characterized by poorer response-inhibition skills that demand greater neural resources. We propose that event-related potentials can be used in conjunction with behavioral data to predict relapse; this would identify patients that need a higher level of neural resources when suppressing a

  14. The role of personality in predicting drug and alcohol use among sexual minorities.

    PubMed

    Livingston, Nicholas A; Oost, Kathryn M; Heck, Nicholas C; Cochran, Bryan N

    2015-06-01

    Research consistently demonstrates that sexual minority status is associated with increased risk of problematic substance use. Existing literature in this area has focused on group-specific minority stress factors (e.g., victimization and internalized heterosexism). However, no known research has tested the incremental validity of personality traits as predictors of substance use beyond identified group-specific risk factors. A sample of 704 sexual minority adults was recruited nationally from lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and questioning community organizations and social networking Web sites and asked to complete an online survey containing measures of personality, sexual minority stress, and substance use. Hierarchical regression models were constructed to test the incremental predictive validity of five-factor model personality traits over and above known sexual minority risk factors. Consistent with hypotheses, extraversion and conscientiousness were associated with drug and alcohol use after accounting for minority stress factors, and all factors except agreeableness were associated with substance use at the bivariate level of analysis. Future research should seek to better understand the role of normal personality structures and processes conferring risk for substance use among sexual minorities. (PsycINFO Database Record

  15. Risk Score Model for Predicting Sonographic Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Children and Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Hosseini, Sayed-Mohsen; Mousavi, Saeid; Poursafa, Parinaz; Kelishadi, Roya

    2011-01-01

    Objective This study aimed to develop and test the validity of a risk score to be used as a simple tool to identify those children at high risk of sonographic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted among 962 participants aged 6–18 years in Isfahan, Iran. They consisted of three groups of nearly equal number of normal-weight, overweight and obese individuals. Coefficients of the logistic regression models were used to assign a score value for each variable and the composite sonographic NAFLD risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. Performance of model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve procedure. Findings Data of 931 participants was included in the analysis. The sonographic findings of 16.8% of participants were compatible with NAFLD. Age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference and serum triglycerides level were diagnosed as factors associated with NAFLD. The risk score was calculated as 50 for sonographic NAFLD. Conclusion This study, to the best of our knowledge is the first of its kind in the pediatric age group, focuses on predicting sonographic NAFLD from easily-measured factors. It may suggest an association of hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype with NAFLD in the pediatric age group. PMID:23056785

  16. The Role of Personality in Predicting Drug and Alcohol Use Among Sexual Minorities

    PubMed Central

    Livingston, Nicholas A.; Oost, Kathryn M.; Heck, Nicholas C.; Cochran, Bryan N.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Research consistently demonstrates that sexual minority status is associated with increased risk of problematic substance use. Existing literature in this area has focused on group-specific minority stress factors (e.g., victimization and internalized heterosexism). However, no known research has tested the incremental validity of personality traits as predictors of substance use beyond identified group-specific risk factors. Methods A sample of 704 sexual minority adults were recruited nationally from LGBTQQ community organizations and social networking websites and asked to complete an online survey containing measures of personality, sexual minority stress, and substance use. Results Hierarchical regression models were constructed to test the incremental predictive validity of Five-Factor personality traits over and above known sexual minority risk factors. Consistent with hypotheses, extraversion and conscientiousness were associated with drug and alcohol use after accounting for minority stress factors, and all factors except agreeableness were associated with substance use at the bivariate level of analysis. Conclusion Future research should seek to better understand the role of normal personality structures and processes conferring risk for substance use among sexual minorities. PMID:25347022

  17. Autoregressive conditional duration as a model for financial market crashes prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pyrlik, Vladimir

    2013-12-01

    There is an increasing number of studies showing that financial market crashes can be detected and predicted. The main aim of the research was to develop a technique for crashes prediction based on the analysis of durations between sequent crashes of a certain magnitude of Dow Jones Industrial Average. We have found significant autocorrelation in the series of durations between sequent crashes and suggest autoregressive conditional duration models (ACD) to forecast the crashes. We apply the rolling intervals technique in the sample of more than 400 DJIA crashes in 1896-2011 and repeatedly use the data on 100 sequent crashes to estimate a family of ACD models and calculate forecasts of the one following crash. It appears that the ACD models provide significant predictive power when combined with the inter-event waiting time technique. This suggests that despite the high quality of retrospective predictions, using the technique for real-time forecasting seems rather ineffective, as in the case of every particular crash the specification of the ACD model, which would provide the best quality prediction, is rather hard to identify.

  18. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-06-22

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales.

  19. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed Central

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-01-01

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales. PMID:10902685

  20. An Exploration of the Associations of Alcohol-Related Social Media Use and Message Interpretation Outcomes to Problem Drinking Among College Students.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Eric W; Austin, Erica Weintraub; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Austin, Bruce W

    2017-07-01

    College students' use of digital communication technology has led to a rapid expansion of digital alcohol marketing efforts. Two surveys (total usable n = 637) were conducted to explore college students' experiences with alcohol-related social media, their decision making related to alcohol use, and their problematic drinking behaviors. Study results indicated that students' use of alcohol-related social media predicted their problem drinking behaviors. In addition, students' wishful identification, perceived desirability, perceived similarity, and normative beliefs predicted their expectancies for drinking alcohol. Finally, students' expectancies for drinking alcohol predicted their problematic drinking behaviors.

  1. Club drugs and alcohol abuse predicted dropout and poor adherence among methadone maintenance treatment patients in Guangzhou, China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Di; Gu, Jing; Xu, Huifang; Hao, Chun; Jiao, Mingxu; Zhang, Xiao; Zhao, Yuteng; Andrew, Babbitt; Hao, Yuantao

    2017-04-01

    Club drugs and alcohol abuse are prevalent among methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) patients. However, little is known about the association between these abuse and treatment outcomes among MMT patients. The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of club drugs and alcohol abuse among MMT patients and to investigate the associations between these abuse and treatment outcomes - dropout and poor adherence. In this one-year cohort study conducting in Guangzhou, China, data including background characteristics, club drugs use in the last six months, alcohol use history and treatment-related information was collected. Cox regression analyses and log-binomial regression analyses were applied to identify the associations between these abuse and dropout and poor adherence, respectively. Thirty-seven participants (9.2%) admitted to the use of at least one type of club drugs in the last six months and 88 (21.9%) were identified as alcohol abusers. Of all participants, 21.0% had dropped out of treatment and 27.7% exhibited poor adherence during the study period. Adjusting for significant background variables, use of at least one type of club drugs [hazards ratio (HR) = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-3.56] and use of methamphetamine in the last six months (HR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.15-4.43) significantly predicted dropout. Frequency of having six or more drinks on one drinking occasion when drinking [relative risk (RR) = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.16-2.95] significantly predicted poor adherence. Our findings indicated that club drugs and alcohol abuse predicted dropout and poor adherence among MMT patients. Early identification and intervention for the abuse should be taken into consideration when developing interventions tailored to improve treatment outcomes among MMT patients.

  2. Executive Function Predicts Adaptive Behavior in Children with Histories of Heavy Prenatal Alcohol Exposure and Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Ware, Ashley L.; Crocker, Nicole; O’Brien, Jessica W.; Deweese, Benjamin N.; Roesch, Scott C.; Coles, Claire D.; Kable, Julie A.; May, Philip A.; Kalberg, Wendy O.; Sowell, Elizabeth R.; Jones, Kenneth Lyons; Riley, Edward P.; Mattson, Sarah N.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose of Study Prenatal exposure to alcohol often results in disruption to discrete cognitive and behavioral domains, including executive function (EF) and adaptive functioning. In the current study, the relation between these two domains was examined in children with histories of heavy prenatal alcohol exposure, non-exposed children with a diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and typically developing controls. Methods As part of a multisite study, three groups of children (8-18y, M = 12.10) were tested: children with histories of heavy prenatal alcohol exposure (ALC, N=142), non-exposed children with ADHD (ADHD, N=82), and typically developing controls (CON, N=133) who did not have ADHD or a history of prenatal alcohol exposure. Children completed subtests of the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS) and their primary caregivers completed the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales-II (VABS). Data were analyzed using regression analyses. Results Analyses showed that EF measures were predictive of adaptive abilities and significant interactions between D-KEFS measures and group were present. For the ADHD group, the relation between adaptive abilities and EF was more general, with three of the four EF measures showing a significant relation with adaptive score. In contrast, for the ALC group, this relation was specific to the nonverbal EF measures. In the CON group, performance on EF tasks did not predict adaptive scores over the influence of age. Conclusion These results support prior research in ADHD suggesting that EF deficits are predictive of poorer adaptive behavior and extend this finding to include children with heavy prenatal exposure to alcohol. However, the relation between EF and adaptive ability differed by group, suggesting unique patterns of abilities in these children. These results provide enhanced understanding of adaptive deficits in these populations, as well as demonstrate the ecological validity of laboratory

  3. The string prediction models as invariants of time series in the forex market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pincak, R.

    2013-12-01

    In this paper we apply a new approach of string theory to the real financial market. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. A brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is based on the correlation function as invariant and the second one is an application based on the deviations from the closed string/pattern form (PMBCS). We found the difference between these two approaches. The first model cannot predict the behavior of the forex market with good efficiency in comparison with the second one which is, in addition, able to make relevant profit per year. The presented string models could be useful for portfolio creation and financial risk management in the banking sector as well as for a nonlinear statistical approach to data optimization.

  4. Testing the performance of technical trading rules in the Chinese markets based on superior predictive test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shan; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-12-01

    Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. The profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousand traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) from May 21, 1992 through June 30, 2013 and China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) from April 8, 2005 through June 30, 2013 to check whether an effective trading strategy could be found by using the performance measurements based on the return and Sharpe ratio. To correct for the influence of the data-snooping effect, we adopt the Superior Predictive Ability test to evaluate if there exists a trading rule that can significantly outperform the benchmark. The result shows that for SSCI, technical trading rules offer significant profitability, while for CSI 300, this ability is lost. We further partition the SSCI into two sub-series and find that the efficiency of technical trading in sub-series, which have exactly the same spanning period as that of CSI 300, is severely weakened. By testing the trading rules on both indexes with a five-year moving window, we find that during the financial bubble from 2005 to 2007, the effectiveness of technical trading rules is greatly improved. This is consistent with the predictive ability of technical trading rules which appears when the market is less efficient.

  5. Turing Trade: A Hybrid of a Turing Test and a Prediction Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farfel, Joseph; Conitzer, Vincent

    We present Turing Trade, a web-based game that is a hybrid of a Turing test and a prediction market. In this game, there is a mystery conversation partner, the “target,” who is trying to appear human, but may in reality be either a human or a bot. There are multiple judges (or “bettors”), who interrogate the target in order to assess whether it is a human or a bot. Throughout the interrogation, each bettor bets on the nature of the target by buying or selling human (or bot) securities, which pay out if the target is a human (bot). The resulting market price represents the bettors’ aggregate belief that the target is a human. This game offers multiple advantages over standard variants of the Turing test. Most significantly, our game gathers much more fine-grained data, since we obtain not only the judges’ final assessment of the target’s humanity, but rather the entire progression of their aggregate belief over time. This gives us the precise moments in conversations where the target’s response caused a significant shift in the aggregate belief, indicating that the response was decidedly human or unhuman. An additional benefit is that (we believe) the game is more enjoyable to participants than a standard Turing test. This is important because otherwise, we will fail to collect significant amounts of data. In this paper, we describe in detail how Turing Trade works, exhibit some example logs, and analyze how well Turing Trade functions as a prediction market by studying the calibration and sharpness of its forecasts (from real user data).

  6. The Role of Religious Beliefs and Behaviors in Predicting Underage Alcohol Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brechting, Emily H.; Brown, Tamara L.; Salsman, John M.; Sauer, Shannon E.; Holeman, Virginia T.; Carlson, Charles R.

    2010-01-01

    Religious beliefs have consistently emerged as significantly and inversely related to alcohol use. This article seeks further understanding of this relationship by exploring the role of religious behaviors in this relationship in three ways. First, we aim to determine whether the relationship between religious beliefs and alcohol use differs with…

  7. The Role of Religious Beliefs and Behaviors in Predicting Underage Alcohol Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brechting, Emily H.; Brown, Tamara L.; Salsman, John M.; Sauer, Shannon E.; Holeman, Virginia T.; Carlson, Charles R.

    2010-01-01

    Religious beliefs have consistently emerged as significantly and inversely related to alcohol use. This article seeks further understanding of this relationship by exploring the role of religious behaviors in this relationship in three ways. First, we aim to determine whether the relationship between religious beliefs and alcohol use differs with…

  8. Prediction-Market-Based Quantification of Climate Change Consensus and Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2012-12-01

    Intrade is an online trading exchange that includes climate prediction markets. One such family of contracts can be described as "Global temperature anomaly for 2012 to be greater than x °C or more," where the figure x ranges in increments of .05 from .30 to 1.10 (relative to the 1951-1980 base period), based on data published by NASA GISS. Each market will settle at 10.00 if the published global temperature anomaly for 2012 is equal to or greater than x, and will otherwise settle at 0.00. Similar contracts will be available for 2013. Global warming hypotheses can be cast as probabilistic predictions for future temperatures. The first modern such climate prediction is that of Broecker (1975), whose temperatures are easily separable from his CO2 growth scenario—which he overestimated—by interpolating his table of temperature as a function of CO2 concentration and projecting the current trend into the near future. For the current concentration of 395 ppm, Broecker's equilibrium temperature anomaly prediction relative to pre-industrial is 1.05 °C, or about 0.75 °C relative to the GISS base period. His neglect of lag in response to the changes in radiative forcing was partially compensated by his low sensitivity of 2.4 °C, leading to a slight overestimate. Simple linear extrapolation of the current trend since 1975 yields an estimate of .65 ± .09 °C (net warming of .95 °C) for anthropogenic global warming with a normal distribution of random natural variability. To evaluate an extreme case, we can estimate the prediction Broecker would have made if he had used the Lindzen & Choi (2009) climate sensitivity of 0.5 °C. The net post-industrial warming by 2012 would have been 0.21 °C, for an expected change of -0.09 from the GISS base period. This is the temperature to which the Earth would be expected to revert if the observed warming since the 19th century was merely due to random natural variability that coincidentally mimicked Broecker's anthropogenic

  9. Temporal Alcohol Availability Predicts First-Time Drunk Driving, but Not Repeat Offending

    PubMed Central

    Schofield, Timothy P.; Denson, Thomas F.

    2013-01-01

    Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense) and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense) charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges, but were not associated with felony drunk driving charges. The per capita density of on-premises alcohol outlets did not affect misdemeanor or felony drunk driving charges. The results suggest that temporal alcohol availability may be an impelling factor for first-time drunk driving, but other factors likely influence repeat drunk driving behaviors. PMID:23940711

  10. Temporal alcohol availability predicts first-time drunk driving, but not repeat offending.

    PubMed

    Schofield, Timothy P; Denson, Thomas F

    2013-01-01

    Alcohol availability has been linked to drunk driving, but research has not examined whether this relationship is the same for first-time and repeat offenses. We examined the relationship between the business hours of alcohol outlets licensed to serve alcohol for on-premises consumption and misdemeanor-level (first offense) and felony-level drunk driving (repeat offense) charges in New York State in 2009. Longer outlet business hours were associated with more misdemeanor drunk driving charges, but were not associated with felony drunk driving charges. The per capita density of on-premises alcohol outlets did not affect misdemeanor or felony drunk driving charges. The results suggest that temporal alcohol availability may be an impelling factor for first-time drunk driving, but other factors likely influence repeat drunk driving behaviors.

  11. Cingulate cortex functional connectivity predicts future relapse in alcohol dependent individuals.

    PubMed

    Zakiniaeiz, Yasmin; Scheinost, Dustin; Seo, Dongju; Sinha, Rajita; Constable, R Todd

    2017-01-01

    Alcohol dependence is a chronic relapsing illness. Alcohol and stress cues have consistently been shown to increase craving and relapse risk in recovering alcohol dependent (AUD) patients. However, differences in functional connectivity in response to these cues have not been studied using data-driven approaches. Here, voxel-wise connectivity is used in a whole-brain investigation of functional connectivity differences associated with alcohol and stress cues and to examine whether these differences are related to subsequent relapse. In Study 1, 45, 4- to 8-week abstinent, recovering AUD patients underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging during individualized imagery of alcohol, stress, and neutral cues. Relapse measures were collected prospectively for 90 days post-discharge from inpatient treatment. AUD patients showed blunted anterior (ACC), mid (MCC) and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), voxel-wise connectivity responses to stress compared to neutral cues and blunted PCC response to alcohol compared to neutral cues. Using Cox proportional hazard regression, weaker connectivity in ACC and MCC during neutral exposure was associated with longer time to relapse (better recovery outcome). Similarly, greater connectivity in PCC during alcohol-cue compared to stress cue was associated with longer time to relapse. In Study 2, a sub-group of 30 AUD patients were demographically-matched to 30 healthy control (HC) participants for group comparisons. AUD compared to HC participants showed reduced cingulate connectivity during alcohol and stress cues. Using novel data-driven approaches, the cingulate cortex emerged as a key region in the disruption of functional connectivity during alcohol and stress-cue processing in AUD patients and as a marker of subsequent alcohol relapse.

  12. A Market-Basket Approach to Predict the Acute Aquatic Toxicity of Munitions and Energetic Materials.

    PubMed

    Burgoon, Lyle D

    2016-06-01

    An ongoing challenge in chemical production, including the production of insensitive munitions and energetics, is the ability to make predictions about potential environmental hazards early in the process. To address this challenge, a quantitative structure activity relationship model was developed to predict acute fathead minnow toxicity of insensitive munitions and energetic materials. Computational predictive toxicology models like this one may be used to identify and prioritize environmentally safer materials early in their development. The developed model is based on the Apriori market-basket/frequent itemset mining approach to identify probabilistic prediction rules using chemical atom-pairs and the lethality data for 57 compounds from a fathead minnow acute toxicity assay. Lethality data were discretized into four categories based on the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals. Apriori identified toxicophores for categories two and three. The model classified 32 of the 57 compounds correctly, with a fivefold cross-validation classification rate of 74 %. A structure-based surrogate approach classified the remaining 25 chemicals correctly at 48 %. This result is unsurprising as these 25 chemicals were fairly unique within the larger set.

  13. Life stress in adolescence predicts early adult reward-related brain function and alcohol dependence

    PubMed Central

    Shaw, Daniel S.; Sitnick, Stephanie L.; Musselman, Samuel C.; Forbes, Erika E.

    2015-01-01

    Stressful life events increase vulnerability to problematic alcohol use, and they may do this by disrupting reward-related neural circuitry. This is particularly relevant for adolescents because alcohol use rises sharply after mid-adolescence and alcohol abuse peaks at age 20. Adolescents also report more stressors compared with children, and neural reward circuitry may be especially vulnerable to stressors during adolescence because of prefrontal cortex remodeling. Using a large sample of male participants in a longitudinal functional magnetic resonance imaging study (N = 157), we evaluated whether cumulative stressful life events between the ages of 15 and 18 were associated with reward-related brain function and problematic alcohol use at age 20 years. Higher cumulative stressful life events during adolescence were associated with decreased response in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) during monetary reward anticipation and following the receipt of monetary rewards. Stress-related decreases in mPFC response during reward anticipation and following rewarding outcomes were associated with the severity of alcohol dependence. Furthermore, mPFC response mediated the association between stressful life events and later symptoms of alcohol dependence. These data are consistent with neurobiological models of addiction that propose that stressors during adolescence increase risk for problematic alcohol use by disrupting reward circuit function. PMID:24795442

  14. Life stress in adolescence predicts early adult reward-related brain function and alcohol dependence.

    PubMed

    Casement, Melynda D; Shaw, Daniel S; Sitnick, Stephanie L; Musselman, Samuel C; Forbes, Erika E

    2015-03-01

    Stressful life events increase vulnerability to problematic alcohol use, and they may do this by disrupting reward-related neural circuitry. This is particularly relevant for adolescents because alcohol use rises sharply after mid-adolescence and alcohol abuse peaks at age 20. Adolescents also report more stressors compared with children, and neural reward circuitry may be especially vulnerable to stressors during adolescence because of prefrontal cortex remodeling. Using a large sample of male participants in a longitudinal functional magnetic resonance imaging study (N = 157), we evaluated whether cumulative stressful life events between the ages of 15 and 18 were associated with reward-related brain function and problematic alcohol use at age 20 years. Higher cumulative stressful life events during adolescence were associated with decreased response in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) during monetary reward anticipation and following the receipt of monetary rewards. Stress-related decreases in mPFC response during reward anticipation and following rewarding outcomes were associated with the severity of alcohol dependence. Furthermore, mPFC response mediated the association between stressful life events and later symptoms of alcohol dependence. These data are consistent with neurobiological models of addiction that propose that stressors during adolescence increase risk for problematic alcohol use by disrupting reward circuit function.

  15. Trauma and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms Predict Alcohol and Other Drug Consequence Trajectories in the First Year of College

    PubMed Central

    Read, Jennifer P.; Colder, Craig R.; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Ouimette, Paige; White, Jacquelyn; Swartout, Ashlyn

    2012-01-01

    Objective College matriculation begins a period of transition into adulthood, one that is marked by new freedoms and responsibilities. This transition also is marked by an escalation in heavy drinking and other drug use, and a variety of use-related negative consequences. Trauma and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may affect alcohol and drug problems, and thus may be a point of intervention. Yet no studies have examined trauma, PTSD, and alcohol and drug problem associations during this developmental period. The present study provides such an examination. Method Matriculating college students (N=997) completed surveys in September (T1) and at five subsequent time points (T2-T6) over their first year of college. With latent growth analysis, trajectories of alcohol and drug-related consequences were modeled to examine how trauma (No Criterion A Trauma, Criterion A Only, No PTSD symptoms) and PTSD (partial or full) symptom status predicted these trajectories. Results Results showed substantial risk for alcohol- and other drug-related negative consequences that is conferred by the presence of PTSD at matriculation. Those with both partial and full PTSD started the year with more alcohol and drug consequences. These individuals showed a steeper decrease in consequences in the first semester, which leveled off as the year progressed. Both alcohol and drug consequences remained higher for those in the PTSD group throughout the academic year. Hyper-arousal symptoms showed unique effects on substance consequence trajectories. Risk patterns were consistent for both partial and full PTSD symptom presentations. Trajectories did not vary by gender. Conclusions Interventions that offer support and resources to students entering college with PTSD may help to ameliorate problem substance use and may ultimately facilitate a stronger transition into college and beyond. PMID:22545739

  16. Impulsivity and drinking motives predict problem behaviours relating to alcohol use in university students.

    PubMed

    Jones, Katy A; Chryssanthakis, Alexandra; Groom, Madeleine J

    2014-01-01

    This study used a four-factor model of impulsivity to investigate inter-relationships between alcohol consumption, impulsivity, motives for drinking and the tendency to engage in alcohol-related problem behaviours. 400 University students aged 18-25 completed an online survey consisting of the following measures: Urgency, Premeditation, Perseverance and Sensation Seeking Scale (UPPS) to measure impulsivity; Student Alcohol Questionnaire to assess drinking quantity, frequency and rates of problem behaviours; Drinking Motives Questionnaire to assess motives for drinking. The majority of the sample (94.5%) drank alcohol at least monthly. Path analysis revealed direct effects of urgency, sensation seeking and premeditation, as well as the quantity of alcohol consumed, on the tendency to engage in risky behaviours with negative consequences. The effect of urgency was mediated by drinking for coping motives and by a combined effect of drinking for social motives and consumption of wine or spirits. Conversely the effect of sensation seeking was mediated by the quantity of alcohol consumed, irrespective of drink type, and the effect of premeditation was mediated by the consumption of wine and spirits, in combination with enhancement motives. Sensation seeking, urgency and lack of premeditation are related to different motives for drinking and also demonstrate dissociable relationships with the consumption of specific types of alcohol (beer, wine and spirits) and the tendency to engage in risky behaviours associated with alcohol consumption. Screening for high levels of urgency and for severe drinking consequences may be useful predictors of alcohol-related problems in UK University students aged 18 to 25 years. © 2013.

  17. Stopping smoking during first year of substance use treatment predicted 9-year alcohol and drug treatment outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Tsoh, Janice Y.; Chi, Felicia W.; Mertens, Jennifer R.; Weisner, Constance M.

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the association between stopping smoking at 1 year after substance use treatment intake and long-term substance use outcomes. Nine years of prospective data from 1,185 adults (39% female) in substance use treatment at a private health care setting were analyzed by multivariate logistic generalized estimating equation models. At 1 year, 14.1% of 716 participants who smoked cigarettes at intake reported stopping smoking, and 10.7% of the 469 non-smokers at intake reported smoking. After adjusting for sociodemographics, substance use severity and diagnosis at intake, length of stay in treatment, and substance use status at 1 year, those who stopped smoking at 1 year were more likely to be past-year abstinent from drugs, or in past-year remission of drugs and alcohol combined, at follow-ups than those who continued to smoke (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.2 – 4.7 and OR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1 – 2.4, respectively). Stopping smoking at 1 year also predicted past-year alcohol abstinence through 9 years after intake among those with drug-only dependence (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.2 – 4.5). We found no association between past-year alcohol abstinence and change in smoking status at 1 year for those with alcohol dependence or other substance use diagnoses when controlling for alcohol use status at 1 year. Stopping smoking during the first year after substance use treatment intake predicted better long-term substance use outcomes through 9 years after intake. Findings support promoting smoking cessation among smoking clients in substance use treatment. PMID:21050681

  18. Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse

    MedlinePlus

    ... distress and harm. It includes alcoholism and alcohol abuse. Alcoholism, or alcohol dependence, is a disease that ... alcohol to feel the same effect With alcohol abuse, you are not physically dependent, but you still ...

  19. Differential Prediction of Alcohol vs. Hard Drug Use Levels in a General Youth Sample via the HEW Youth Development Model's Community Youth Program Impact Scales, Age, and Sex.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Truckenmiller, James L.

    Recent national surveys have found marked increases in the use of illicit drugs and alcohol among adolescents. To investigate differential prediction of alcohol versus hard drug use amoung youths, 6% of the youths, aged 10-19, from a Pennsylvania county school system (N=1,689) were assessed on the HEW Community Youth Program Impact Scales. The 12…

  20. Intracoronary electrocardiogram during alcohol septal ablation for hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy predicts myocardial injury size.

    PubMed

    Meng, Jing; Qu, Xiaolong; Huang, Haiyun; Zhang, Shanwen; Zhao, Weibo; He, Guoxiang; Song, Zhiyuan; Hu, Houyuan

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol septal ablation (ASA) has been used widely to treat patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy (HOCM). During the routine ASA procedure, it is difficult to detect the septal injury in real-time. The aim of the present study is to assess myocardial injury during ASA by recording intracoronary electrocardiogram (IC-ECG). From 2012 to 2015, 31 HOCM patients were treated with ASA, and IC-ECG was recorded in 21 patients successfully before and after ethanol injection. The elevation of ST-segment on IC-ECG after ethanol injection was expressed as its ratio to the level before injection or the absolute increasing value. Blood samples were collected before and after ASA for measuring changes in cardiac biomarkers. The ratio value of ST-segment elevation was positively correlated with both the amount of ethanol injected (r = 0.645, P = 0.001) and the myocardial injury size (creatine kinase-MB area under the curve (AUC) of CK-MB) (r = 0.466, P = 0.017). The absolute increment of ST-segment was also positively associated with both the amount of ethanol (r = 0.665, P = 0.001) and AUC of CK-MB (0.685, P = 0.001). However, there was no statistical correlation between the reduction of left ventricular outflow tract gradient and ST-segment elevation. Additionally no severe ASA procedure-related complications were observed in our patients. In conclusion, myocardial injury induced by ethanol injection can be assessed immediately by ST-segment elevation on IC-ECG. This study is the first to show that IC-ECG is a useful method for predicting myocardial injury during ASA in real-time.

  1. Serum parameters predict the severity of ultrasonographic findings in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    PubMed

    Razavizade, Mohsen; Jamali, Raika; Arj, Abbas; Talari, Hamidreza

    2012-10-01

    Controversy exists about the correlation between liver ultrasonography and serum parameters for evaluating the severity of liver involvement in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study was designed to determine the association between liver ultrasonography staging in NAFLD and serum parameters correlated with disease severity in previous studies; and set optimal cut-off points for those serum parameters correlated with NAFLD staging at ultrasonography, in order to differentiate ultrasonographic groups (USGs). This cross-sectional study evaluated outpatients with evidence of NAFLD in ultrasonography referred to a general hospital. Those with positive viral markers, abnormal serum ceruloplasmin or gamma-globulin concentrations were excluded. A radiologist performed the ultrasonography staging and stratified the patients into mild, moderate, and severe groups. Fasting serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, triglyceride (TG), high and low density lipoprotein (HDL, LDL), and cholesterol were checked. Two hundred and forty-five patients with a mean age (+/-standard deviation) of 41.63(+/-11.46) years were included. There were no significant differences when mean laboratory concentrations were compared between moderate and severe USGs. Therefore, these groups were combined to create revised USGs ("mild" versus "moderate or severe"). There were associations between the revised USGs, and ALT, TG, HDL levels, and diabetes mellitus [odds ratios=2.81 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.37-5.76), 2.48 (95% CI: 1.29- 4.78), 0.36 (95% CI: 0.18-0.74), and 5.65 (95% CI: 2.86-11.16) respectively; all P values <0.01]. A cut-off value of 32.5 mg/dL for ALT gave a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 62%, for differentiating between the revised USGs. Serum ALT, TG, and HDL concentrations seem to be associated with the staging by liver ultrasonography in NAFLD. They might be used to predict the staging of liver

  2. Evaluation of human pharmacokinetics, therapeutic dose and exposure predictions using marketed oral drugs.

    PubMed

    McGinnity, D F; Collington, J; Austin, R P; Riley, R J

    2007-06-01

    In this article approaches to predict human pharmacokinetics (PK) are discussed and the capability of the exemplified methodologies to estimate individual PK parameters and therapeutic dose for a set of marketed oral drugs has been assessed. For a set of 63 drugs where the minimum efficacious concentration (MEC) and human PK were known, the clinical dose was shown to be well predicted or in some cases over-estimated using a simple one-compartment oral PK model. For a subset of these drugs, in vitro potency against the primary human targets was gathered, and compared to the observed MEC. When corrected for plasma protein binding, the MEC of the majority of compounds was < or=3 fold over the respective in vitro target potency value. A series of in vitro and in vivo experiments were conducted to predict the human PK parameters. Metabolic clearance was generally predicted well from human hepatocytes. Interestingly, for this compound set, allometry or glomerular filtration rate (GFR) ratio methods appeared to be applicable for renal CL even where CL(renal) > GFR. For approximately 90% of compounds studied, the predicted CL using in vitro-in vivo (IVIV) extrapolation together with a CL(renal) estimate, where appropriate, was within 2-fold of that observed clinically. Encouragingly volume of distribution at steady state (V(ss)) estimated in preclinical species (rat and dog) when corrected for plasma protein binding, predicted human V(ss) successfully on the majority of occasions--73% of compounds within 2-fold. In this laboratory, absorption estimated from oral rat PK studies was lower than the observed human absorption for most drugs, even when solubility and permeability appeared not to be limiting. Preliminary data indicate absorption in the dog may be more representative of human for compounds absorbed via the transcellular pathway. Using predicted PK and MEC values estimated from in vitro potency assays there was a good correlation between predicted and observed dose

  3. Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin

    2017-03-01

    With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.

  4. Predictive validity of clinical AUDIT-C alcohol screening scores and changes in scores for three objective alcohol-related outcomes in a Veterans Affairs population.

    PubMed

    Bradley, Katharine A; Rubinsky, Anna D; Lapham, Gwen T; Berger, Douglas; Bryson, Christopher; Achtmeyer, Carol; Hawkins, Eric J; Chavez, Laura J; Williams, Emily C; Kivlahan, Daniel R

    2016-11-01

    groups at follow-up, findings were inconsistent across outcomes, with only mean HDL decreasing in most groups that decreased use (P-values all < 0.05). When AUDIT-C screening is conducted in clinical settings, baseline AUDIT-C scores and score increases to moderate-severe alcohol misuse at follow-up screening appear to have predictive validity for HDL cholesterol, alcohol-related gastrointestinal hospitalizations and physical trauma. Decreasing AUDIT-C scores collected in clinical settings appear to have predictive validity for only HDL. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  5. Predictive Effects of Good Self-Control and Poor Regulation on Alcohol-Related Outcomes: Do Protective Behavioral Strategies Mediate?

    PubMed Central

    Pearson, Matthew R.; Kite, Benjamin A.; Henson, James M.

    2016-01-01

    In the present study, we examined whether use of protective behavioral strategies mediated the relationship between self-control constructs and alcohol-related outcomes. According to the two-mode model of self-control, good self-control (planfulness; measured with Future Time Perspective, Problem Solving, and Self-Reinforcement) and poor regulation (impulsivity; measured with Present Time Perspective, Poor Delay of Gratification, Distractibility) are theorized to be relatively independent constructs rather than opposite ends of a single continuum. The analytic sample consisted of 278 college student drinkers (68% women) who responded to a battery of surveys at a single time point. Using a structural equation model based on the two-mode model of self-control, we found that good self-control predicted increased use of three types of protective behavioral strategies (Manner of Drinking, Limiting/Stopping Drinking, and Serious Harm Reduction). Poor regulation was unrelated to use of protective behavioral strategies, but had direct effects on alcohol use and alcohol problems. Further, protective behavioral strategies mediated the relationship between good self-control and alcohol use. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:22663345

  6. Diagnosis and prediction of tipping points in financial markets: Crashes and rebounds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Wanfeng; Woodard, Ryan; Sornette, Didier

    2010-08-01

    By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as a flexible tool to detect bubbles. The LPPL model considers the faster-than-exponential (power law with finite-time singularity) increase in asset prices decorated by accelerating oscillations as the main diagnostic of bubbles. It embodies a positive feedback loop of higher return anticipations competing with negative feedback spirals of crash expectations. The power of the LPPL model is illustrated by two recent real-life predictions performed recently by our group: the peak of the Oil price bubble in early July 2008 and the burst of a bubble on the Shanghai stock market in early August 2009. We then present the concept of 'negative bubbles', which are the mirror images of positive bubbles. We argue that similar positive feedbacks are at work to fuel these accelerated downward price spirals. We adapt the LPPL model to these negative bubbles and implement a pattern recognition method to predict the end times of the negative bubbles, which are characterized by rebounds (the mirror images of crashes associated with the standard positive bubbles). The out-of-sample tests quantified by error diagrams demonstrate the high significance of the prediction performance.

  7. The Predictive Power of Family History Measures of Alcohol and Drug Problems and Internalizing Disorders In A College Population

    PubMed Central

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle

    2015-01-01

    A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. PMID:25946510

  8. The predictive power of family history measures of alcohol and drug problems and internalizing disorders in a college population.

    PubMed

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress predict women's problematic alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Holzhauer, Cathryn Glanton; Wemm, Stephanie; Wulfert, Edelgard

    2017-06-01

    Research has shown that measures of reactivity to distress-including distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress-are dysregulated in women who misuse alcohol. These variables may interact and create a risk profile for young adult women, reflecting patterns of stress reactivity that confer a risk for alcohol misuse. The current study tested this hypothesis by examining the independent and interactive associations of subjective distress tolerance, behavioral distress tolerance, and physiological stress reactivity with women's alcohol misuse. The study was conducted with a sample of 91 college women recruited on a large northeastern university campus. Results showed that subjective levels of distress tolerance and physiological reactivity to stress (skin conductance reactivity, SCR), but not behavioral distress tolerance, were independently associated with alcohol misuse. In addition, subjective distress tolerance moderated the relationship between SCR and negative alcohol-related consequences. Specifically, women with low physiological reactivity (SCR) to a stressful task and greater urge to quickly rid themselves of distress (low subjective distress tolerance) endorsed a significantly greater number of adverse consequences from their alcohol use. These results extend prior findings by showing that, even among a nonclinical sample of women, lower stress reactivity in combination with low subjective distress tolerance is associated with increased risk for various drinking-related negative consequences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Poor impulse control predicts inelastic demand for nicotine but not alcohol in rats.

    PubMed

    Diergaarde, Leontien; van Mourik, Yvar; Pattij, Tommy; Schoffelmeer, Anton N M; De Vries, Taco J

    2012-05-01

    Tobacco and alcohol dependence are characterized by continued use despite deleterious health, social and occupational consequences, implying that addicted individuals pay a high price for their use. In behavioral economic terms, such persistent consumption despite increased costs can be conceptualized as inelastic demand. Recent animal studies demonstrated that high-impulsive individuals are more willing to work for nicotine or cocaine infusions than their low-impulsive counterparts, indicating that this trait might be causally related to inelastic drug demand. By employing progressive ratio schedules of reinforcement combined with a behavioral economics approach of analysis, we determined whether trait impulsivity is associated with an insensitivity of nicotine or alcohol consumption to price increments. Rats were trained on a delayed discounting task, measuring impulsive choice. Hereafter, high- and low-impulsive rats were selected and trained to nose poke for intravenous nicotine or oral alcohol. Upon stable self-administration on a continuous reinforcement schedule, the price (i.e. response requirement) was increased. Demand curves, depicting the relationship between price and consumption, were produced using Hursh's exponential demand equation. Similar to human observations, nicotine and alcohol consumption in rats fitted this equation, thereby demonstrating the validity of our model. Moreover, high-impulsive rats displayed inelastic nicotine demand, as their nicotine consumption was less sensitive to price increments as compared with that in low-impulsive rats. Impulsive choice was not related to differences in alcohol demand elasticity. Our model seems well suited for studying nicotine and alcohol demand in rats and, as such, might contribute to our understanding of tobacco and alcohol dependence.

  11. An Ecologically Based Model of Alcohol-Consumption Decision Making: Evidence for the Discriminative and Predictive Role of Contextual Reward and Punishment Information*

    PubMed Central

    Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: Using insights from Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, the current study assessed the utility of a series of hypothetical role-based alcohol-consumption scenarios that varied in their presentation of rewarding and punishing information. Method: The scenarios, along with measures of impulsive sensation seeking and a self-report of weekly alcohol consumption, were administered to a sample of alcohol-dependent and non-alcohol-dependent college-age individuals (N = 170). Results: The results showed scenario attendance decisions were largely unaffected by alcohol-dependence status and variations in contextual reward and punishment information. In contrast to the attendance findings, the results for the alcohol-consumption decisions showed alcohol-dependent individuals reported a greater frequency of deciding to drink, as well as indicating greater alcohol consumption in the contexts of complementary rewarding or nonpunishing information. Regression results provided evidence for the criterion-related validity of scenario outcomes in an account of diagnostic alcohol problems. Conclusions: The results are discussed in terms of the conceptual and predictive gains associated with an assessment approach to alcohol-consumption decision making that combines situational information organized and balanced through the frameworks of Ecological Systems Theory and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory. PMID:19371496

  12. The interplay of trait anger, childhood physical abuse, and alcohol consumption in predicting intimate partner aggression.

    PubMed

    Maldonado, Rosalita C; Watkins, Laura E; DiLillo, David

    2015-04-01

    The current study examined three well-established risk factors for intimate partner aggression (IPA) within Finkel and Eckhardt's I(3) model, including two impellance factors-trait anger and childhood physical abuse history-and the disinhibiting factor of alcohol consumption. Participants were 236 male and female college students in a committed heterosexual dating relationship who completed a battery of self-report measures assessing childhood physical abuse, trait anger, alcohol consumption, and IPA perpetration. Results revealed a significant three-way interaction showing that as the disinhibition factor alcohol consumption increased, the interaction of the two impelling factors, trait anger and childhood physical abuse, became increasingly more positive. Individuals who had high levels of childhood physical abuse and alcohol consumption were at greater risk of IPA perpetration when trait anger was high. Consistent with the I(3) model, these findings suggest that trait anger and a history of childhood physical abuse may increase tendencies to aggress against one's partner, whereas alcohol consumption may reduce individuals' abilities to manage these aggressive tendencies. The importance of interplay among these risk factors in elevating IPA risk is discussed, as are the implications for clinicians working with male and female IPA perpetrators.

  13. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An early mediator predicting metabolic syndrome in obese children?

    PubMed

    Fu, Jun-Fen; Shi, Hong-Bo; Liu, Li-Rui; Jiang, Ping; Liang, Li; Wang, Chun-Lin; Liu, Xi-Yong

    2011-02-14

    To investigate if non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an early mediator for prediction of metabolic syndrome, and if liver B-ultrasound can be used for its diagnosis. We classified 861 obese children (6-16 years old) into three subgroups: group 0 (normal liver in ultrasound and normal transaminases); group 1 (fatty liver in ultrasound and normal transaminases); and group 2 (fatty liver in ultrasound and elevated transaminases). We measured the body mass index, waist and hip circumference, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), whole-body insulin sensitivity index (WBISI), lipid profile and transaminases in all the participants. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome (MS) was assessed according to the degree of liver fatty infiltration based on the B-ultrasound examination. Among the 861 obese children, 587 (68.18%) were classified as having NAFLD, and 221 (25.67%) as having MS. The prevalence of MS in NAFLD children (groups 1 and 2) was 37.64% (221/587), which was much higher than that in non-NAFLD group (group 0, 12.04%) (P < 0.01). There were significantly higher incidences concerning every component of MS in group 2 compared with group 0 (P < 0.05). The incidence of NAFLD in MS patients was 84.61% (187/221), which was significantly higher than that of hypertension (57.46%, 127/221) and glucose metabolic anomalies (22.62%, 50/221), and almost equal to the prevalence of dyslipidemia (89.14%, 197/221). Based on the B-ultrasound scales, the presence of moderate and severe liver fatty infiltration carried a high risk of hypertension [odds ratio (OR): 2.18, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.27-3.75], dyslipidemia (OR: 7.99, 95% CI: 4.34-14.73), impaired fasting glucose (OR: 3.65, 95% CI: 1.04-12.85), and whole MS (OR: 3.77; 95% CI: 1.90-7.47, P < 0.01). The state of insulin resistance (calculated by HOMA-IR and WBISI) deteriorated as the degree of fatty infiltration increased. NAFLD

  14. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An early mediator predicting metabolic syndrome in obese children?

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Jun-Fen; Shi, Hong-Bo; Liu, Li-Rui; Jiang, Ping; Liang, Li; Wang, Chun-Lin; Liu, Xi-Yong

    2011-01-01

    AIM: To investigate if non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an early mediator for prediction of metabolic syndrome, and if liver B-ultrasound can be used for its diagnosis. METHODS: We classified 861 obese children (6-16 years old) into three subgroups: group 0 (normal liver in ultrasound and normal transaminases); group 1 (fatty liver in ultrasound and normal transaminases); and group 2 (fatty liver in ultrasound and elevated transaminases). We measured the body mass index, waist and hip circumference, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), whole-body insulin sensitivity index (WBISI), lipid profile and transaminases in all the participants. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome (MS) was assessed according to the degree of liver fatty infiltration based on the B-ultrasound examination. RESULTS: Among the 861 obese children, 587 (68.18%) were classified as having NAFLD, and 221 (25.67%) as having MS. The prevalence of MS in NAFLD children (groups 1 and 2) was 37.64% (221/587), which was much higher than that in non-NAFLD group (group 0, 12.04%) (P < 0.01). There were significantly higher incidences concerning every component of MS in group 2 compared with group 0 (P < 0.05). The incidence of NAFLD in MS patients was 84.61% (187/221), which was significantly higher than that of hypertension (57.46%, 127/221) and glucose metabolic anomalies (22.62%, 50/221), and almost equal to the prevalence of dyslipidemia (89.14%, 197/221). Based on the B-ultrasound scales, the presence of moderate and severe liver fatty infiltration carried a high risk of hypertension [odds ratio (OR): 2.18, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.27-3.75], dyslipidemia (OR: 7.99, 95% CI: 4.34-14.73), impaired fasting glucose (OR: 3.65, 95% CI: 1.04-12.85), and whole MS (OR: 3.77; 95% CI: 1.90-7.47, P < 0.01). The state of insulin resistance (calculated by HOMA-IR and WBISI) deteriorated as the degree of fatty

  15. Tobacco and alcohol billboards in 50 Chicago neighborhoods: market segmentation to sell dangerous products to the poor.

    PubMed

    Hackbarth, D P; Silvestri, B; Cosper, W

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes a study of billboard advertising of tobacco and alcohol products in the city of Chicago. All billboards were counted and their advertising themes noted. These data were matched with information on population and race from the 1990 census in order to document which geographic areas of the city, if any, had excess tobacco or alcohol billboards. The data revealed that minority wards were burdened with three times as many tobacco billboards and five times as many alcohol billboards when compared to white wards. The findings are congruent with studies conducted in other urban areas, which demonstrate a consistent pattern of tobacco and alcohol advertisers targeting poor and minority neighborhoods for outdoor advertising of their dangerous products. Chicago legislative initiatives based on the billboard study are described.

  16. The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system.

    PubMed

    Li, Eldon Y; Tung, Chen-Yuan; Chang, Shu-Hsun

    2016-08-01

    The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy. This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting. The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection. Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators. The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider

  17. Relational aggression, positive urgency and negative urgency: predicting alcohol use and consequences among college students.

    PubMed

    Grimaldi, Elizabeth M; Napper, Lucy E; LaBrie, Joseph W

    2014-09-01

    Research on relational aggression (indirect and social means of inflicting harm) has previously focused on adolescent populations. The current study extends this research by exploring both the frequency of perpetrating and being the target of relational aggression as it relates to alcohol use outcomes in a college population. Further, this study examines whether positive urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to positive emotions) and negative urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to negative emotions) moderate the relationship between relational aggression and alcohol outcomes. In this study, 245 college students (65.7% female) completed an online survey. Results indicated greater frequency of perpetrating relational aggression, higher levels of positive urgency, or higher levels of negative urgency was associated with more negative consequences. Further, negative urgency moderated the relationship between frequency of perpetrating aggression and consequences such that aggression was more strongly associated with consequences for those high in urgency. Counter to the adolescent literature, the frequency of being the target of aggression was not associated with more alcohol use. These findings suggest that perpetrators of relational aggression may be at particular risk for negative alcohol-related consequences when they act impulsively in response to negative, but not positive, emotions. These students may benefit from interventions exploring alternative ways to cope with negative emotions.

  18. Using "Bud World Party" Attendance to Predict Adolescent Alcohol Use and Beliefs about Drinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomsen, Steven R.; Rekve, Dag; Lindsay, Gordon B.

    2004-01-01

    This study explored the association between attendance at the "Bud World Party," a family entertainment venue created by Anheuser-Busch for the 2002 Winter Olympics, and alcohol-related beliefs and current drinking behaviors for a group of 7th and 8th graders who attend a middle school in close proximity to the downtown Salt Lake City plaza where…

  19. High School Drinker Typologies Predict Alcohol Involvement and Psychosocial Adjustment during Acclimation to College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hersh, Matthew A.; Hussong, Andrea M.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined differences among distinct types of high school drinkers on their alcohol involvement and psychosocial adjustment during the first semester of college. Participants were 147 college freshmen (66% female; 86% Caucasian) from a large Southeastern public university who reported on high school drinking and college stress, affect,…

  20. Do Negative Emotions Predict Alcohol Consumption, Saturated Fat Intake, and Physical Activity in Older Adults?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anton, Stephen D.; Miller, Peter M.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined anger, depression, and stress as related to alcohol consumption, saturated fat intake, and physical activity. Participants were 23 older adults enrolled in either an outpatient or in-residence executive health program. Participants completed (a) a health-risk appraisal assessing medical history and current health habits, (b)…

  1. Using "Bud World Party" Attendance to Predict Adolescent Alcohol Use and Beliefs about Drinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomsen, Steven R.; Rekve, Dag; Lindsay, Gordon B.

    2004-01-01

    This study explored the association between attendance at the "Bud World Party," a family entertainment venue created by Anheuser-Busch for the 2002 Winter Olympics, and alcohol-related beliefs and current drinking behaviors for a group of 7th and 8th graders who attend a middle school in close proximity to the downtown Salt Lake City plaza where…

  2. Relational Aggression, Positive Urgency and Negative Urgency: Predicting Alcohol Use and Consequences among College Students

    PubMed Central

    Grimaldi, Elizabeth M.; Napper, Lucy E.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

    2014-01-01

    Research on relational aggression (indirect and social means of inflicting harm) has previously focused on adolescent populations. The current study extends this research by exploring both the frequency of perpetrating and being the target of relational aggression as it relates to alcohol use outcomes in a college population. Further, this study examines whether positive urgency (e.g. acting impulsively in response to positive emotions) and negative urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to negative emotions) moderate the relationship between relational aggression and alcohol outcomes. In this study, 245 college students (65.7% female) completed an online survey. Results indicated greater frequency of perpetrating relational aggression, higher levels of positive urgency, or higher levels of negative urgency was associated with more negative consequences. Further, negative urgency moderated the relationship between frequency of perpetrating aggression and consequences such that aggression was more strongly associated with consequences for those high in urgency. Counter to the adolescent literature, the frequency of being the target of aggression was not associated with more alcohol use. These findings suggest that perpetrators of relational aggression may be at particular risk for negative alcohol-related consequences when they act impulsively in response to negative, but not positive, emotions. These students may benefit from interventions exploring alternative ways to cope with negative emotions. PMID:25134025

  3. Do Negative Emotions Predict Alcohol Consumption, Saturated Fat Intake, and Physical Activity in Older Adults?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anton, Stephen D.; Miller, Peter M.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined anger, depression, and stress as related to alcohol consumption, saturated fat intake, and physical activity. Participants were 23 older adults enrolled in either an outpatient or in-residence executive health program. Participants completed (a) a health-risk appraisal assessing medical history and current health habits, (b)…

  4. Understanding social anxiety as a risk for alcohol use disorders: fear of scrutiny, not social interaction fears, prospectively predicts alcohol use disorders.

    PubMed

    Buckner, Julia D; Schmidt, Norman B

    2009-01-01

    Increasing evidence indicates that social anxiety may be a premorbid risk factor for alcohol use disorders (AUD). The aim of this study was to replicate and extend previous work examining whether social anxiety is a risk factor for AUD by evaluating both the temporal antecedence and non-spuriousness of this relationship. We also examined whether social anxiety first-order factors (social interaction anxiety, observation anxieties) served as specific predictors of AUD. A non-referred sample of 404 psychologically healthy young adults (i.e. free from current or past Axis I psychopathology) was prospectively followed over approximately two years. Social anxiety (but not depression or trait anxiety) at baseline significantly predicted subsequent AUD onset. The relationship between social anxiety and AUD remained even after controlling for relevant variables (gender, depression, trait anxiety). Further, social anxiety first-order factors differentially predicted AUD onset, such that observation anxieties (but not social interaction anxiety) were prospectively linked to AUD onset. This study provides further support that social anxiety (and fear of scrutiny specifically) appears to serve as an important and potentially specific AUD-related variable that deserves serious attention as a potential vulnerability factor.

  5. Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

  6. Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

  7. Media as a "Super Peer": How Adolescents Interpret Media Messages Predicts Their Perception of Alcohol and Tobacco Use Norms.

    PubMed

    Elmore, Kristen C; Scull, Tracy M; Kupersmidt, Janis B

    2017-02-01

    Adolescents' media environment offers information about who uses substances and what happens as a result-how youth interpret these messages likely determines their impact on normative beliefs about alcohol and tobacco use. The Message Interpretation Processing (MIP) theory predicts that substance use norms are influenced by cognitions associated with the interpretation of media messages. This cross-sectional study examined whether high school adolescents' (n = 817, 48 % female, 64 % white) media-related cognitions (i.e., similarity, realism, desirability, identification) were related to their perceptions of substance use norms. Results revealed that adolescents' media-related cognitions explained a significant amount of variance in perceived social approval for and estimated prevalence of peer alcohol and tobacco use, above and beyond previous use and demographic covariates. Compared to prevalence norms, social approval norms were more closely related to adolescents' media-related cognitions. Results suggest that critical thinking about media messages can inhibit normative perceptions that are likely to increase adolescents' interest in alcohol and tobacco use.

  8. Declining negative consequences related to alcohol misuse among students exposed to a social norms marketing intervention on a college campus.

    PubMed

    Turner, James; Perkins, H Wesley; Bauerle, Jennifer

    2008-01-01

    The authors examined whether alcohol-related negative consequences decreased among students exposed to an intervention. Beginning in 1999, approximately 2,500 randomly selected undergraduates from a 4-year US university annually participated in a Web-based survey over 6 years. The educational intervention used social norms initiatives. Main outcome measures included recall of intervention, estimated blood alcohol content (eBAC) when drinking, and 10 negative consequences from alcohol within the past year. First-year students recalling exposure had lower odds of negative consequences (odds ratio [OR] = 0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64-0.95) and of having an eBAC higher than .08 (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.62-0.92). Over the 6 study years, the odds among all participants of experiencing (a) none of 10 alcohol consequences nearly doubled (OR = 2.13, 95% CI = 1.82-2.49) and (b) multiple consequences decreased by more than half (OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.36-0.50). These findings have important implications for US colleges and universities engaged in the reduction of harm associated with alcohol misuse.

  9. The way one thinks affects the way one drinks: subjective evaluations of alcohol consequences predict subsequent change in drinking behavior.

    PubMed

    Merrill, Jennifer E; Read, Jennifer P; Barnett, Nancy P

    2013-03-01

    Heavy alcohol use and related consequences are common during the college years and are associated with deleterious outcomes for both the students themselves and the college community. Some college students make self-initiated changes to their drinking to avoid such outcomes, but little is known about how such adjustments occur, or characteristics that are associated with making these adjustments. Based on Social Learning Theory (SLT), one cognitive factor that may predict within-person changes in drinking is the subjective evaluations of alcohol consequences (i.e., the extent to which consequences are perceived as negative, aversive, or severe). The aim of the present study was to investigate whether subjective evaluations of recently experienced consequences influence within-person changes in drinking behavior. In 10 weekly, web-based surveys, regularly drinking college students (N = 96, 50 female) reported on their previous week alcohol use and experience of 24 alcohol-related consequences, as well as their subjective evaluations of those consequences. Results demonstrated that evaluations across the consequences varied, and that in addition to differing from one another, students' evaluations of consequences differed at the within-person level over time. Most important, hierarchical linear model tests revealed that students drank less and experienced fewer consequences following weeks in which they rated their consequences as more negative (relative to their own typical subjective evaluations), suggesting that viewing one's recent consequences as aversive prompts self-initiated behavior change. Findings of the present study have potential to inform interventions for college drinking, particularly those that target how individuals think about their behavior and its consequences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Dispelling the myth of "smart drugs": cannabis and alcohol use problems predict nonmedical use of prescription stimulants for studying.

    PubMed

    Arria, Amelia M; Wilcox, Holly C; Caldeira, Kimberly M; Vincent, Kathryn B; Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M; O'Grady, Kevin E

    2013-03-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that college students' substance use problems would predict increases in skipping classes and declining academic performance, and that nonmedical use of prescription stimulants (NPS) for studying would occur in association with this decline. A cohort of 984 students in the College Life Study at a large public university in the US participated in a longitudinal prospective study. Interviewers assessed NPS; Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) cannabis and alcohol use disorders; and frequency of skipping class. Semester grade point average (GPA) was obtained from the university. Control variables were race, sex, family income, high school GPA, and self-reported attention deficit hyperactivity disorder diagnosis. Longitudinal growth curve modeling of four annual data waves estimated the associations among the rates of change of cannabis use disorder, percentage of classes skipped, and semester GPA. The associations between these trajectories and NPS for studying were then evaluated. A second structural model substituted alcohol use disorder for cannabis use disorder. More than one-third (38%) reported NPS for studying at least once by Year 4. Increases in skipping class were associated with both alcohol and cannabis use disorder, which were associated with declining GPA. The hypothesized relationships between these trajectories and NPS for studying were confirmed. These longitudinal findings suggest that escalation of substance use problems during college is related to increases in skipping class and to declining academic performance. NPS for studying is associated with academic difficulties. Although additional research is needed to investigate causal pathways, these results suggest that nonmedical users of prescription stimulants could benefit from a comprehensive drug and alcohol assessment to possibly mitigate future academic declines.

  11. Predicting project environmental performance under market uncertainties: case study of oil sands coke.

    PubMed

    McKellar, Jennifer M; Bergerson, Joule A; Kettunen, Janne; MacLean, Heather L

    2013-06-04

    A method combining life cycle assessment (LCA) and real options analyses is developed to predict project environmental and financial performance over time, under market uncertainties and decision-making flexibility. The method is applied to examine alternative uses for oil sands coke, a carbonaceous byproduct of processing the unconventional petroleum found in northern Alberta, Canada. Under uncertainties in natural gas price and the imposition of a carbon price, our method identifies that selling the coke to China for electricity generation by integrated gasification combined cycle is likely to be financially preferred initially, but eventually hydrogen production in Alberta is likely to be preferred. Compared to the results of a previous study that used life cycle costing to identify the financially preferred alternative, the inclusion of real options analysis adds value as it accounts for flexibility in decision-making (e.g., to delay investment), increasing the project's expected net present value by 25% and decreasing the expected life cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 11%. Different formulations of the carbon pricing policy or changes to the natural gas price forecast alter these findings. The combined LCA/real options method provides researchers and decision-makers with more comprehensive information than can be provided by either technique alone.

  12. Genome Sequence Variability Predicts Drug Precautions and Withdrawals from the Market

    PubMed Central

    Baik, Su Youn; Lee, Soo Youn; Park, Chan Hee; Park, Paul J.; Kim, Ju Han

    2016-01-01

    Despite substantial premarket efforts, a significant portion of approved drugs has been withdrawn from the market for safety reasons. The deleterious impact of nonsynonymous substitutions predicted by the SIFT algorithm on structure and function of drug-related proteins was evaluated for 2504 personal genomes. Both withdrawn (n = 154) and precautionary (Beers criteria (n = 90), and US FDA pharmacogenomic biomarkers (n = 96)) drugs showed significantly lower genomic deleteriousness scores (P < 0.001) compared to others (n = 752). Furthermore, the rates of drug withdrawals and precautions correlated significantly with the deleteriousness scores of the drugs (P < 0.01); this trend was confirmed for all drugs included in the withdrawal and precaution lists by the United Nations, European Medicines Agency, DrugBank, Beers criteria, and US FDA. Our findings suggest that the person-to-person genome sequence variability is a strong independent predictor of drug withdrawals and precautions. We propose novel measures of drug safety based on personal genome sequence analysis. PMID:27690231

  13. How long the singular value decomposed entropy predicts the stock market? - Evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Rongbao; Shao, Yanmin

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, a new concept of multi-scales singular value decomposition entropy based on DCCA cross correlation analysis is proposed and its predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is studied. Using Granger causality analysis with different time scales, it is found that, the singular value decomposition entropy has predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for period less than one month, but not for more than one month. This shows how long the singular value decomposition entropy predicts the stock market that extends Caraiani's result obtained in Caraiani (2014). On the other hand, the result also shows an essential characteristic of stock market as a chaotic dynamic system.

  14. Hangover Predicts Residual Alcohol Effects on Psychomotor Vigilance the Morning After Intoxication

    PubMed Central

    Howland, Jonathan; Rohsenow, Damaris J.; Bliss, Caleb A.; Almeida, Alissa B.; Calise, Tamara Vehige; Heeren, Timothy; Winter, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Both hangover and performance deficits have been documented the day after drinking to intoxication after breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) has returned to near zero. But few studies have examined the relationship between hangover and post-intoxication performance. Method We performed secondary analyses of data from a previously reported controlled cross-over laboratory study to assess the relationship of hangover incidence and severity to sustained attention/reaction time the morning after drinking to about 0.11 g% BrAC. Relationships were investigated while controlling for gender, type of alcoholic beverage (bourbon or vodka), and neurocognitive performance after placebo. Results Hangover severity and neurocognitive performance were significantly correlated. Participants reporting stronger hangover were more impaired than those reporting little or no hangover. Comparing any to no hangover showed a trend in the same direction of effect. Conclusions More intense hangover may indicate less fitness for duty in workers in certain safety-sensitive occupations, with implications for occupational alcohol policies. PMID:21643431

  15. Flashpoint prediction for ternary mixtures of alcohols with water for CFD simulation of unsteady flame propagation during explosion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skřínský, Jan; Vereš, Ján; Ševčíková, Silvie Petránková

    2016-06-01

    Aqueous solutions of binary and ternary mixtures of alcohols are of considerable interest for a wide range of scientists and technologists. Simple dimensionless experimental formulae based on rational reciprocal and polynomial functions are proposed for correlation of the flashpoint data of binary mixtures of two components. The formulae are based on data obtained from flashpoint experiments and predictions. The main results are the derived experimental flashpoint values for ternary mixtures of two aqueous-organic solutions and the model prediction of maximum explosion pressure values for the studied mixtures. Potential application for the results concerns the assessment of fire and explosion hazards, and the development of inherently safer designs for chemical processes containing binary and ternary partially miscible mixtures of an aqueous-organic system. The goal of this article is to present the results of modelling using these standard models and to demonstrate its importance in the area of CFD simulation.

  16. Predicting Inpatient Detoxification Outcome of Alcohol and Drug Dependent Patients: The Influence of Sociodemographic Environment, Motivation, Impulsivity, and Medical Comorbidities

    PubMed Central

    Danker-Hopfe, Heidi; Gooren, Tina

    2017-01-01

    Aims. This prospective study aims to identify patient characteristics as predictors for treatment outcome during inpatient detoxification treatment for drug and alcohol dependent patients. Methods. A mixed gender sample of 832 consecutively admitted drug and alcohol dependent patients were interviewed by an experienced physician. The impact of a variety of factors concerning social environment, therapy motivation, impulsivity related variables, medical history, and addiction severity on treatment outcome was examined. Results. 525 (63.1%) of the patients completed detoxification treatment whereas 307 (36.9%) dropped out prematurely. Being female, living in a partnership, having children, being employed, and having good education were predictive for a positive outcome. Family, health, the fear of losing the job, prosecution, and emergency admission were significant motivational predictors for treatment outcome. Being younger, history of imprisonment, and the number of previous drop-outs were predictive for a negative outcome. Conclusions. Variables concerning social environment and the number of previous drop-outs have been identified as best predictors for treatment outcome. Socially stable patients benefit from the current treatment setting and treatment shall be adapted for patients with negative predictors. Treatment may consequently be tailored with respect to intervention type, duration, and intensity to improve the outcome for those patients that fulfil criteria with negative impact on treatment retention. PMID:28367351

  17. Spring break versus spring broken: predictive utility of spring break alcohol intentions and willingness at varying levels of extremity.

    PubMed

    Litt, Dana M; Lewis, Melissa A; Patrick, Megan E; Rodriguez, Lindsey; Neighbors, Clayton; Kaysen, Debra L

    2014-02-01

    Within the domain of risk-related behavior, many times the decision to engage is not a product of premeditation or intention. The prototype willingness model was created to capture and explain the unintended element of risk behavior. The present study aimed to evaluate the importance of willingness versus intention, two important constructs within the prototype willingness model, in relation to spring break drinking behavior when assessed at both high and low extremities. College undergraduates (N = 275) completed questionnaires prior to spring break regarding their anticipated spring break activities. Willingness and intention were assessed for different levels of risk. Specifically, participants indicated the extent to which they intended to (a) get drunk and (b) drink enough to black out or pass out; and the extent to which they were willing to (a) get drunk and (b) drink enough to black out or pass out. When classes resumed following spring break, the students indicated the extent to which they actually (a) got drunk and (b) drank enough to black out or pass out. Results demonstrated that when the health-related risk was lower (i.e., getting drunk), intention was a stronger predictor of behavior than was willingness. However, as the level of risk increased (i.e., getting drunk enough to black out or pass out), willingness more strongly predicted behavior. The present study suggests that willingness and intentions differentially predict spring break alcohol-related behavior depending on the extremity of behavior in question. Implications regarding alcohol interventions are discussed.

  18. Predicting DUI recidivism of male drunken driving: a prospective study of the impact of alcohol markers and previous drunken driving.

    PubMed

    Portman, M; Penttilä, A; Haukka, J; Eriksson, P; Alho, H; Kuoppasalmi, K

    2010-01-15

    The aim of the present study was to determine whether the alcohol biomarkers CDT, GGT, the biomarker gamma-CDT index and previous drunken driving contributed significantly to the prediction of DUI recidivism. The subjects consisted of two different samples of drivers, viz. drivers who were found to have a positive breath alcohol concentration during random breath testing surveys (n=237), and drunken drivers who were apprehended during ordinary police work (n=193). The drunken driving events were monitored using a data-base both retrospectively and prospectively. It was found that the biomarker index, gamma-CDT, emerged as a notable predictor of recidivism in the group of random breath tested drivers. Measurement of gamma-CDT and its impact on DUI recidivism has not to our knowledge been applied to random breath tested drivers before. The apprehended drunken drivers, on the other hand, did not show a significant relationship between gamma-CDT and DUI recidivism. However, in both groups of drivers it was found that a previous conviction for drunken driving strongly predicted DUI recidivism. More attention should be paid by both physicians and the police to the high risk of recidivism among those convicted of drunken driving. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Predicting Inpatient Detoxification Outcome of Alcohol and Drug Dependent Patients: The Influence of Sociodemographic Environment, Motivation, Impulsivity, and Medical Comorbidities.

    PubMed

    Sofin, Yvonne; Danker-Hopfe, Heidi; Gooren, Tina; Neu, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Aims. This prospective study aims to identify patient characteristics as predictors for treatment outcome during inpatient detoxification treatment for drug and alcohol dependent patients. Methods. A mixed gender sample of 832 consecutively admitted drug and alcohol dependent patients were interviewed by an experienced physician. The impact of a variety of factors concerning social environment, therapy motivation, impulsivity related variables, medical history, and addiction severity on treatment outcome was examined. Results. 525 (63.1%) of the patients completed detoxification treatment whereas 307 (36.9%) dropped out prematurely. Being female, living in a partnership, having children, being employed, and having good education were predictive for a positive outcome. Family, health, the fear of losing the job, prosecution, and emergency admission were significant motivational predictors for treatment outcome. Being younger, history of imprisonment, and the number of previous drop-outs were predictive for a negative outcome. Conclusions. Variables concerning social environment and the number of previous drop-outs have been identified as best predictors for treatment outcome. Socially stable patients benefit from the current treatment setting and treatment shall be adapted for patients with negative predictors. Treatment may consequently be tailored with respect to intervention type, duration, and intensity to improve the outcome for those patients that fulfil criteria with negative impact on treatment retention.

  20. Declining Negative Consequences Related to Alcohol Misuse among Students Exposed to a Social Norms Marketing Intervention on a College Campus

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turner, James; Perkins, H. Wesley; Bauerle, Jennifer

    2008-01-01

    Objective: The authors examined whether alcohol-related negative consequences decreased among students exposed to an intervention. Participants: Beginning in 1999, approximately 2,500 randomly selected undergraduates from a 4-year US university annually participated in a Web-based survey over 6 years. Methods: The educational intervention used…

  1. Declining Negative Consequences Related to Alcohol Misuse among Students Exposed to a Social Norms Marketing Intervention on a College Campus

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turner, James; Perkins, H. Wesley; Bauerle, Jennifer

    2008-01-01

    Objective: The authors examined whether alcohol-related negative consequences decreased among students exposed to an intervention. Participants: Beginning in 1999, approximately 2,500 randomly selected undergraduates from a 4-year US university annually participated in a Web-based survey over 6 years. Methods: The educational intervention used…

  2. Predictive Capacity of Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R) in alcohol use disorder outcomes.

    PubMed

    Ávila Escribano, José Juan; Sánchez Barba, Mercedes; Álvarez Pedrero, Aida; López Villarreal, Ana; Recio Pérez, Joaquina; Rodríguez Rodilla, Manuela; Fraile García, Eulalia

    2016-06-14

    Objetivo: se pretende investigar la capacidad de predicción del inventario de temperamento y carácter de Cloninger (TCI-R) en la evolución de los trastornos por uso de alcohol. Metodología: Es un estudio longitudinal de 237 pacientes con trastornos por uso de alcohol, en tratamiento ambulatorio y seguimiento durante seis meses, cuya personalidad fue estudiada mediante el inventario TCI-R. Se analizó la puntuación de cada una de las dimensiones del inventario TCI-R en función de su situación (retención o abandono) al final del estudio. Resultados: La muestra presentaba puntuaciones  elevadas en búsqueda de novedad (BN) y evitación del daño (ED) y baja en autodirección (AD), definidas, estas últimas, como prominentes. El grupo que abandonó presentaba una puntuación significativamente (p= .004) más elevada en búsqueda de novedad (BN) que el grupo en seguimiento; además cuando la puntuación era superior al percentil 67 la probabilidad de abandonar era 1,07 veces superior. Conclusiones: El inventario de temperamento y carácter de Cloninger (TCI-R) es un buen instrumento para predecir la evolución de los pacientes con trastorno por uso de alcohol y la dimensión búsqueda de novedad (BN) está fuertemente relacionada con el abandono terapéutico.

  3. Diffuse-light absorption spectroscopy for beer classification and prediction of alcoholic content

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciaccheri, L.; Samano Baca, E. E.; Russo, M. T.; Ottevaere, H.; Thienpont, H.; Mignani, A. G.

    2012-04-01

    A miscellaneous of 86 beers was characterized by non-destructive, fast and reagent-free optical measurements. Diffuselight absorption spectroscopy performed in the visible and near-infrared bands was used to gather a turbidity-free spectroscopic information. Also, conventional turbidity and refractive index measurements were added for completing the optical characterization. The near-infrared spectra provided a straightforward turbidity-free assessment of the alcoholic strength. Then, the entire optical data set was processed by means of multivariate analysis looking for a beer clustering according to the own character and identity. Good results were achieved, indicating that optical methods can be successfully used for beer authentication.

  4. Market Powers Predict Reciprocal Grooming in Golden Snub-Nosed Monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana)

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Song-Tao; Zhao, Da-Peng; Zhang, Peng; Huang, Kang; Li, Bao-Guo

    2012-01-01

    Social grooming is a common form of affiliative behavior in primates. Biological market theory suggests that grooming can be traded either for grooming or other social commodities and services. When no other services are exchanged, grooming is predicted to be approximately reciprocated within a dyad. In contrast, the amount of reciprocal grooming should decrease as other offered services increase. We studied grooming patterns between polygamous male and female in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) from the Qinling Mountains of central China and found that about 29.7% of grooming bouts were reciprocated. However, the durations of grooming bouts offered and returned was asymmetrical within dyads. In bisexual dyads, more grooming was initiated by females than males, which became more pronounced as the number of females per one-male unit increased. The rate of copulation per day for each female was positively correlated with the total duration of grooming time females invested in males.. Females without an infant (non-mothers) directed more grooming towards females with an infant (mothers) and were significantly more likely to be non-reciprocated. There was a significant negative relationship between non-mother and mother grooming duration and the rate of infants per female in each one-male unit. High-ranking females also received more grooming from low-ranking females than vice versa. The rate of food-related aggressive interactions was per day for low-ranking females was negatively correlated with the duration of grooming that low-ranking females gave to high-ranking females. Our results showed that grooming reciprocation in R. roxellana was discrepancy. This investment-reciprocity rate could be explained by the exchange of other social services in lieu of grooming. PMID:22590611

  5. Men’s Behavior Predicts Women’s Risks for HIV/AIDS: Multilevel Analysis of Alcohol-Serving Venues in South Africa

    PubMed Central

    Pitpitan, Eileen V.; Kalichman, Seth C.; Eaton, Lisa A.; Sikkema, Kathleen J.; Watt, Melissa H.; Skinner, Donald; Pieterse, Desiree

    2016-01-01

    South Africa has among the highest rates of HIV infection in the world, with women disproportionately affected. Alcohol-serving venues, where alcohol use and sexual risk often intersect, play an important role in HIV risk. Previous studies indicate alcohol use and gender inequity as drivers of this epidemic, yet these factors have largely been examined using person-level predictors. We sought to advance upon this literature by examining venue-level predictors, namely men’s gender attitudes, alcohol and sex behavior to predict women’s risks for HIV. We recruited a cohort of 554 women from twelve alcohol venues (6 primarily Black African, and 6 primarily Coloured [i.e., mixed race] venues) in Cape Town, who were followed for one year across 4 time points. In each of these venues, men’s (N=2,216) attitudes, alcohol use and sexual behaviors were also assessed. Men’s attitudes and behaviors at the venue level were modeled using multilevel modeling to predict women’s unprotected sex over time. We stratified analyses by venue race. As predicted, venue-level characteristics were significantly associated with women’s unprotected sex. Stratified results varied between Black and Coloured venues. Among Black venues where men reported drinking alcohol more frequently, and among Coloured venues where men reported meeting sex partners more frequently, women reported more unprotected sex. This study adds to the growing literature on venues, context, and HIV risk. The results demonstrate that men’s behavior at alcohol drinking venues relate to women’s risks for HIV. This novel finding suggests a need for social-structural interventions that target both men and women to reduce women’s risks. PMID:26768432

  6. Social approval and facilitation in predicting modeling effects in alcohol consumption.

    PubMed

    Caudill, B D; Kong, F H

    2001-01-01

    An important question for alcohol abuse prevention and treatment is whether individuals with high needs for social approval, or those who drink heavily in social contexts, are particularly vulnerable to modeling effects in alcohol consumption. Male and female heavy social drinkers (N=202), as distinguished by these cognitive and situational variables, participated in a multisession dyadic modeling effects study along with a same-sex confederate model who exhibited alternating patterns of heavy and light consumption in an experimental barroom. Subjects with high needs for social approval, and those who tend to drink heavily in social contexts, were particularly vulnerable to imitating directional changes in modeled drinking levels across heavy and light consumption experimental sessions. Additionally, modeling effects were revealed, including reductions in drinking levels, regardless of individual characteristics such as demographics or levels of intoxication achieved on "usual drinking occasions." Findings suggest that individuals exhibiting high needs for social approval, and those who tend to drink heavily in social contexts, may benefit from (1) befriending lower risk models and (2) prevention and/or intervention efforts to reduce risk for substance use by reducing excessive needs for social approval and/or reducing exposure to social contexts where heavy drinking and related risk behavior is normative.

  7. Predicting the effect of naltrexone and acamprosate in alcohol-dependent patients using genetic indicators.

    PubMed

    Ooteman, Wendy; Naassila, Mickaël; Koeter, Maarten W J; Verheul, Roel; Schippers, Gerard M; Houchi, Hakim; Daoust, Martine; van den Brink, Wim

    2009-07-01

    Acamprosate and naltrexone are effective medications in the treatment of alcoholism. However, effect sizes are modest. Pharmacogenomics may improve patient-treatment-matching and effect sizes. It is hypothesized that naltrexone exerts its effect through genetic characteristics associated with the dopaminergic/opioidergic positive reinforcement system, whereas acamprosate works through the glutamatergic/GABAergic negative reinforcement system. Alcohol-dependent subjects were randomly assigned to either acamprosate or naltrexone. Subjects participated in a cue-exposure experiment at the day before and at the last day of medication. Reductions in cue-induced craving and physiological cue reactivity were measured. Differential effects of naltrexone and acamprosate on these outcomes were tested for different polymorphisms of the opioid, dopamine, glutamate and GABA-receptors. Significant matching effects were found for polymorphisms at the DRD2, GABRA6 and GABRB2 gene. In addition, a trend was found for the OPRM1 polymorphism. This provides evidence for the matching potential of genotypes. It is expected that more effective treatments can be offered when genetic information is used in patient-treatment-matching.

  8. Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia

    PubMed Central

    Gilbert, Marius; Golding, Nick; Zhou, Hang; Wint, G. R. William; Robinson, Timothy P.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Lai, Shengjie; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Hui; Guo, Danhuai; Huang, Zhi; Messina, Jane P.; Xiao, Xiangming; Linard, Catherine; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Martin, Vincent; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W.; Farrar, Jeremy J.; Hay, Simon I.; Yu, Hongjie

    2014-01-01

    Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease. PMID:24937647

  9. Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, Marius; Golding, Nick; Zhou, Hang; Wint, G R William; Robinson, Timothy P; Tatem, Andrew J; Lai, Shengjie; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Hui; Guo, Danhuai; Huang, Zhi; Messina, Jane P; Xiao, Xiangming; Linard, Catherine; Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Martin, Vincent; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W; Farrar, Jeremy J; Hay, Simon I; Yu, Hongjie

    2014-06-17

    Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease.

  10. The alcohol interlock: an underutilized resource for predicting and controlling drunk drivers.

    PubMed

    Marques, Paul R; Tippetts, A Scott; Voas, Robert B

    2003-01-01

    This report summarizes evidence presented during the Third Annual Ignition Interlock Symposium at Vero Beach, Florida, 29 October 2002. The ignition interlock prevents a car from starting when blood alcohol concentration (BAC) is elevated. We review some of our prior work as well as introduce previously unpublished results to demonstrate the manner in which the data recorded by the alcohol ignition interlock device can serve as an advance predictor of future driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol risks. Data used in this current report represent approximately 2,200 ignition interlock users from Alberta, Canada, and about 8,000 interlock users from Quebec, Canada; the Alberta data set contained 5.5 million breath tests and the Quebec data 18.8 million breath tests. All tests are time and date stamped and this information was used to characterize patterns of BAC and vehicle use, and the relationship between BAC elevations and DUI offenses that accumulated after the interlock was removed from the vehicles. Findings from Cox regression (Marques et al., 2003) show that BAC elevations > .02-.04% are more potent predictors of repeat DUI (p < .0001) than even prior DUI (p < .006), usually found to be the strongest indicator of driver risk. Prior DUI obviously has no use for scaling the risk of first-time offenders. Drivers who are both multiple offenders and who have more than a few elevated interlock BAC tests are much more likely to repeat DUI. The timing and pattern of elevated BAC tests provided during the time drivers were required to use an alcohol ignition interlock device are remarkably similar on both a daily basis and an hourly basis when the interlock programs from the two provinces are compared directly. Both provinces had higher rates of elevated tests on Saturday and Sunday, and the fewest elevated tests on Tuesdays. The absolute rate of elevated tests is similar despite the two provinces adhering to different interlock lockout points (.02% Quebec; .04

  11. The alcohol interlock: an underutilized resource for predicting and controlling drunk drivers.

    PubMed

    Marques, Paul R; Tippetts, A Scott; Voas, Robert B

    2003-09-01

    This report summarizes evidence presented during the Third Annual Ignition Interlock Symposium at Vero Beach, Florida, 29 October 2002. The ignition interlock prevents a car from starting when blood alcohol concentration (BAC) is elevated. We review some of our prior work as well as introduce previously unpublished results to demonstrate the manner in which the data recorded by the alcohol ignition interlock device can serve as an advance predictor of future driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol risks. Data used in this current report represent approximately 2,200 ignition interlock users from Alberta, Canada, and about 8,000 interlock users from Quebec, Canada; the Alberta data set contained 5.5 million breath tests and the Quebec data 18.8 million breath tests. All tests are time and date stamped and this information was used to characterize patterns of BAC and vehicle use, and the relationship between BAC elevations and DUI offenses that accumulated after the interlock was removed from the vehicles. Findings from Cox regression show that BAC elevations >.02-.04% are more potent predictors of repeat DUI (p<.0001) than even prior DUI (p<.006), usually found to be the strongest indicator of driver risk. Prior DUI obviously has no use for scaling the risk of first-time offenders. Drivers who are both multiple offenders and who have more than a few elevated interlock BAC tests are much more likely to repeat DUI. The timing and pattern of elevated BAC tests provided during the time drivers were required to use an alcohol ignition interlock device are remarkably similar on both a daily basis and an hourly basis when the interlock programs from the two provinces are compared directly. Both provinces had higher rates of elevated tests on Saturday and Sunday, and the fewest elevated tests on Tuesdays. The absolute rate of elevated tests is similar despite the two provinces adhering to different interlock lockout points (.02% Quebec;.04% Alberta). Charts tracking

  12. A Comparison of the Concurrent and Predictive Validity of Three Measures of Readiness to Change Alcohol Use in a Clinical Sample of Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Maisto, Stephen A.; Krenek, Marketa; Chung, Tammy A.; Martin, Christopher S.; Clark, Duncan; Cornelius, Jack R.

    2012-01-01

    We compared three measures of readiness to change alcohol use commonly used in clinical research and practice with adolescents: the Readiness Ruler, the SOCRATES (subscales of Recognition and Taking Steps), and a Staging Algorithm. The analysis sample consisted of 161 male and female adolescents presenting for intensive outpatient alcohol who reported current alcohol use at the initial assessment. Evidence for concurrent validity was assessed by computing simple correlations of each readiness measure with the other three, and of each readiness measure with drinking behavior (percentage of days abstinent (PDA) and drinks per drinking day (DDD), respectively, in the last 30 days) at the start of treatment and at the 6-month follow-up assessment. Evidence for predictive validity was based on percentage of independent variance accounted for by each of the readiness measures in predicting drinking behavior at six months from the start of treatment, and then in predicting drinking behavior at 12 months from the readiness assessment at 6 months. The results showed that all but Recognition had good concurrent validity, the Readiness Ruler score showed consistent evidence for predictive validity, and the Staging Algorithm showed good predictive validity for DDD at 6 and 12 months. For the 82 participants with an alcohol use disorder diagnosis, the findings for the Ruler and Recognition were similar, but the Staging Algorithm had poorer prediction of DDD at 12 months, and Taking Steps was a better predictor of 6- and 12-month PDA and DDD. Research and clinical implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:21767028

  13. Predicting the Initial Lapse Using a Mobile Health Application after Alcohol Detoxification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chih, Ming-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…

  14. Predicting the Initial Lapse Using a Mobile Health Application after Alcohol Detoxification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chih, Ming-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…

  15. Latino Immigrants' Biological Parents' Histories of Substance Use Problems in Their Country of Origin Predict Their Pre- and Post-Immigration