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Sample records for algal population dynamics

  1. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

    2016-09-01

    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. [Effects of water temperature and edible algal density on the population dynamics and sexual reproduction of Moina irrasa].

    PubMed

    Li, Yu-Ying; Deng, Dao-Gui; Lei, Juan; Xi, Yi-Long

    2011-12-01

    This paper studied the population dynamics and sexual reproduction of Moina irrasa at different water temperature and edible algal density. The population density of M. irrasa was obviously higher at high than at medium and low densities of edible algae, with the maximum at high edible algal density and 20 degrees C. At the same temperatures, the average number of the offsprings first produced by per female M. irrasa declined with decreasing edible algal density, and the maximum value appeared at 25 degrees C and at high edible algal density. The male offsprings produced were obviously higher at high than at medium and low edible algal densities. There was a significant correlation between the male density and the population density of M. irrasa. The number of ephippia produced by M. irrasa declined with decreasing edible algal density, and was higher at 25 degrees C than at other temperatures. Edible algal density had larger effects on the population dynamics and sexual reproduction of M. irrasa, as compared with temperature.

  3. Effects of Nano-Titanium Dioxide on Freshwater Algal Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Kulacki, Konrad J.; Cardinale, Bradley J.

    2012-01-01

    To make predictions about the possible effects of nanomaterials across environments and taxa, toxicity testing must incorporate not only a variety of organisms and endpoints, but also an understanding of the mechanisms that underlie nanoparticle toxicity. Here, we report the results of a laboratory experiment in which we examined how titanium dioxide nanoparticles impact the population dynamics and production of biomass across a range of freshwater algae. We exposed 10 of the most common species of North American freshwater pelagic algae (phytoplankton) to five increasing concentrations of n-TiO2 (ranging from controls to 300 mg n-TiO2 L−1). We then examined the effects of n-TiO2 on the population growth rates and biomass production of each algal species over a period of 25 days. On average, increasing concentrations of n-TiO2 had no significant effects on algal growth rates (p = 0.376), even though there was considerable species-specific variation in responses. In contrast, exposure to n-TiO2 tended to increase maximum biomass achieved by species in culture (p = 0.06). Results suggest that titanium dioxide nanoparticles could influence certain aspects of population growth of freshwater phytoplankton, though effects are unlikely at environmentally relevant concentrations. PMID:23071735

  4. Modelling long-term ecotoxicological effects on an algal population under dynamic nutrient stress.

    PubMed

    Bontje, D; Kooi, B W; Liebig, M; Kooijman, S A L M

    2009-07-01

    We study the effects of toxicants on the functioning of phototrophic unicellular organism (an algae) in a simple aquatic microcosm by applying a parameter-sparse model. The model allows us to study the interaction between ecological and toxicological effects. Nutrient stress and toxicant stress, together or alone, can cause extinction of the algal population. The modelled algae consume dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) under surplus light and use it for growth and maintenance. Dead algal biomass is mineralized by bacterial activity, leading to nutrient recycling. The ecological model is coupled with a toxicity-module that describes the dependency of the algal growth and death rate on the toxicant concentration. Model parameter fitting is performed on experimental data from Liebig, M., Schmidt, G., Bontje, D., Kooi, B.W., Streck, G., Traunspurger, W., Knacker, T. [2008. Direct and indirect effects of pollutants on algae and algivorous ciliates in an aquatic indoor microcosm. Aquatic Toxicology 88, 102-110]. These experiments were especially designed to include nutrient limitation, nutrient recycling and long-term exposure to toxicants. The flagellate species Cryptomonas sp. was exposed to the herbicide prometryn and insecticide methyl parathion in semi-closed Erlenmeyers. Given the total limiting amount of nitrogen in the system, the estimated toxicant concentration at which a long-term steady population of algae goes extinct will be derived. We intend to use the results of this study to investigate the effects of ecological (environmental) and toxicological stresses on more realistic ecosystem structure and functioning.

  5. Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

    PubMed

    Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

    2008-11-07

    Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

  6. Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

    PubMed Central

    Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

    2008-01-01

    Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges. PMID:19025676

  7. Population dynamics of an algal bacterial cenosis in closed ecological system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pisman, T. I.; Galayda, Ya. V.; Loginova, N. S.

    The paper deals with microalgae-bacteria interrelationships in the "autotroph-heterotroph" aquatic biotic cycle. Explanations of why and how algal-bacterial ecosystems are formed still remain controversial. The paper presents results of experimental and theoretical investigations of the functioning of the algal-bacterial cenosis (the microalga Chlorella vulgaris and concomitant microflora). The Chlorella microbial community is dominated by representatives of the genus Pseudomonas. Experiments with non-sterile batch cultures of Chlorella on Tamiya medium showed that the biomass of microorganisms increases simultaneously with the increase in microalgal biomass. The microflora of Chlorella can grow on organic substances released by photosynthesizing Chlorella. Microorganisms can also use dying Chlorella cells, i.e. form a "producer-reducer" biocycle. To get a better insight into the cenosis-forming role of microalgae, a mathematical model of the "autotroph-heterotroph" aquatic biotic cycle has been constructed, taking into account the utilization of Chlorella photosynthates and dead cells by microorganisms and the contribution of the components to the nitrogen cycle. A theoretical study showed that the biomass of concomitant bacteria grown on glucose and detritus is larger than the biomass of bacteria utilizing only microalgal photosynthates, which agrees well with the experimental data.

  8. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF FUNGA, NEMATODE, BACTERIA AND ALGAL POPULATION IN A SOIL OF MAZON REGION OF PERU

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Soil microbes are mainly responsible for litter decomposition and nutrient cycling in the forest ecosystems. Population dynamics of soil microbes (fungus, bacteria, nematodes, algae) under secondary forest in tropical region is not well understood. An experiment was implemented at Tropical Crop Rese...

  9. Strong interactions between stoichiometric constraints and algal defenses: evidence from population dynamics of Daphnia and algae in phosphorus-limited microcosms.

    PubMed

    DeMott, William R; Van Donk, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    The dynamic interactions among nutrients, algae and grazers were tested in a 2 × 3 factorial microcosm experiment that manipulated grazers (Daphnia present or absent) and algal composition (single species cultures and mixtures of an undefended and a digestion-resistant green alga). The experiment was run for 25 days in 10-L carboys under mesotrophic conditions that quickly led to strong phosphorus limitation of algal growth (TP is approximately equal to 0.5 μM, N:P 40:1). Four-day Daphnia juvenile growth assays tested for Daphnia P-limitation and nutrient-dependent or grazer-induced algal defenses. The maximal algal growth rate of undefended Ankistrodesmus (mean ± SE for three replicate microcosms; 0.92 ± 0.02 day(-1)) was higher than for defended Oocystis (0.62 ± 0.03 day(-1)), but by day 6, algal growth was strongly P-limited in all six treatments (molar C:P ratio >900). The P-deficient algae were poor quality resources in all three algal treatments. However, Daphnia population growth, reproduction, and survival were much lower in the digestion-resistant treatment even though growth assays provided evidence for Daphnia P-limitation in only the undefended and mixed treatments. Growth assays provided little or no support for simple threshold element ratio (TER) models that fail to consider algae defenses that result in viable gut passage. Our results show that strong P-limitation of algal growth enhances the defenses of a digestion-resistant alga, favoring high abundance of well-defended algae and energy limitation of zooplankton growth.

  10. Viral lysis of Phaeocystis pouchetii: implications for algal population dynamics and heterotrophic C, N and P cycling.

    PubMed

    Haaber, Jakob; Middelboe, Mathias

    2009-04-01

    A model ecosystem with two autotrophic flagellates, Phaeocystis pouchetii and Rhodomonas salina, a virus specific to P. pouchetii (PpV) and bacteria and heterotrophic nanoflagellates was used to investigate effects of viral lysis on algal population dynamics and heterotrophic nitrogen and phosphorus mineralization. Lysis of P. pouchetii by PpV had strong positive effects on bacterial and HNF abundance, and the mass balance of C, N and P suggested an efficient transfer of organic material from P. pouchetii to bacterial and HNF biomass through viral lysis. At the same time, the degradation of P. pouchetii lysates was associated with significant regeneration of inorganic N and P resulting in 148 microg N l(-1) and 7 microg P l(-1), corresponding to 78% and 26% of lysate N and P being mineralized to NH(4)(+) and PO(4)(3-), respectively. These results showed that the turnover of viral lysates in the microbial food web was associated with significant N and P mineralization, supporting the current view that viral lysates can be an important source of inorganic nutrients in marine systems. In the presence of R. salina, the generated NH(4)(+) supported 11% of the observed R. salina growth. Regrowth of virus-resistant P. pouchetii following cell lysis was observed in long-term incubations (150 days), and possibly influenced by nutrient availability and competition from R. salina. The observed impact of viral activity on autotrophic and heterotrophic processes provides direct experimental evidence for virus-driven nutrient generation and emphasizes the potential importance of the viral activity in supporting marine primary production.

  11. Effects of photoperiod on nutrient removal, biomass production, and algal-bacterial population dynamics in lab-scale photobioreactors treating municipal wastewater.

    PubMed

    Lee, Chang Soo; Lee, Sang-Ah; Ko, So-Ra; Oh, Hee-Mock; Ahn, Chi-Yong

    2015-01-01

    Effects of photoperiod were investigated in lab-scale photobioreactors containing algal-bacterial consortia to reduce organic nutrients from municipal wastewater. Under three photoperiod conditions (12 h:12 h, 36 h:12 h, and 60 h:12 h dark–light cycles), nutrient removals and biomass productions were measured along with monitoring microbial population dynamics. After a batch operation for 12 days, 59–80% carbon, 35–88% nitrogen, and 43–89% phosphorus were removed from influents, respectively. In this study, carbon removal was related positively to the length of dark cycles, while nitrogen and phosphorus removals inversely. On the contrast, the highest microbial biomass in terms of chlorophyll a, dry cell weight, and algal/bacterial rRNA gene markers was produced under the 12 h:12 h dark–light cycle among the three photoperiods. The results showed 1) simultaneous growths between algae and bacteria in the microbial consortia and 2) efficient nitrogen and phosphorus removals along with high microbial biomass production under prolonged light conditions. Statistical analyses indicated that carbon removal was significantly related to the ratio of bacteria to algae in the microbial consortia along with prolonged dark conditions (p < 0.05). In addition, the ratio of nitrogen removal to phosphorus removal decreased significantly under prolonged dark conditions (p < 0.001). These results indicated that the photoperiod condition has remarkable impacts on adjusting nutrient removal, producing microbial biomass, and altering algal-bacterial population dynamics. Therefore, the control of photoperiod was suggested as an important operating parameter in the algal wastewater treatment.

  12. Dynamic metabolic exchange governs a marine algal-bacterial interaction

    PubMed Central

    Segev, Einat; Wyche, Thomas P; Kim, Ki Hyun; Petersen, Jörn; Ellebrandt, Claire; Vlamakis, Hera; Barteneva, Natasha; Paulson, Joseph N; Chai, Liraz; Clardy, Jon; Kolter, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Emiliania huxleyi is a model coccolithophore micro-alga that generates vast blooms in the ocean. Bacteria are not considered among the major factors influencing coccolithophore physiology. Here we show through a laboratory model system that the bacterium Phaeobacter inhibens, a well-studied member of the Roseobacter group, intimately interacts with E. huxleyi. While attached to the algal cell, bacteria initially promote algal growth but ultimately kill their algal host. Both algal growth enhancement and algal death are driven by the bacterially-produced phytohormone indole-3-acetic acid. Bacterial production of indole-3-acetic acid and attachment to algae are significantly increased by tryptophan, which is exuded from the algal cell. Algal death triggered by bacteria involves activation of pathways unique to oxidative stress response and programmed cell death. Our observations suggest that bacteria greatly influence the physiology and metabolism of E. huxleyi. Coccolithophore-bacteria interactions should be further studied in the environment to determine whether they impact micro-algal population dynamics on a global scale. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.17473.001 PMID:27855786

  13. Dynamic metabolic exchange governs a marine algal-bacterial interaction.

    PubMed

    Segev, Einat; Wyche, Thomas P; Kim, Ki Hyun; Petersen, Jörn; Ellebrandt, Claire; Vlamakis, Hera; Barteneva, Natasha; Paulson, Joseph N; Chai, Liraz; Clardy, Jon; Kolter, Roberto

    2016-11-18

    Emiliania huxleyi is a model coccolithophore micro-alga that generates vast blooms in the ocean. Bacteria are not considered among the major factors influencing coccolithophore physiology. Here we show through a laboratory model system that the bacterium Phaeobacter inhibens, a well-studied member of the Roseobacter group, intimately interacts with E. huxleyi. While attached to the algal cell, bacteria initially promote algal growth but ultimately kill their algal host. Both algal growth enhancement and algal death are driven by the bacterially-produced phytohormone indole-3-acetic acid. Bacterial production of indole-3-acetic acid and attachment to algae are significantly increased by tryptophan, which is exuded from the algal cell. Algal death triggered by bacteria involves activation of pathways unique to oxidative stress response and programmed cell death. Our observations suggest that bacteria greatly influence the physiology and metabolism of E. huxleyi. Coccolithophore-bacteria interactions should be further studied in the environment to determine whether they impact micro-algal population dynamics on a global scale.

  14. The use of turbidostat culture in investigation of algal heavy-metal toxicity and rotifer population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, W.N.

    1989-01-01

    Using the green alga Chlorella pyrenoidosa Chick, the heavy metals selenium as selenate, cadmium, cadmium + manganese and cadmium + zinc were investigated to assess their toxicity in terms of changes in {mu}{sub max}. It was shown that increases of sublethal concentrations of Se produced a near linear decrease in {mu}{sub max}. A {mu}{sub max}IC{sub 50} was calculated to be 10.1 {mu}M Se. A concentration of 1.8 {mu}M Cd produced a 62% decrease in {mu}{sub max} after 2 generating lag. A recovery of {mu}{sub max} was observed when MnCl{sub 2} or ZnCl{sub 2} was added to the medium in which populations were experiencing sublethal Cd toxicity. The amelioration responses were incomplete with regard to full recovery of {mu}{sub max} and last 20 generations for the Cd-Mn exposure and 7 generations for the Cd-Zn exposure. Measurement of {mu}{sub max} is turbidostat culture was shown to provide a very sensitive measure of toxicity. For the first time, a metazoan, the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus Pallas, was grown in turbidostat culture and maintained near its {mu}{sub max} for many generations. It was discovered that {mu}{sub max} was subject to selection in this species and increased 51% from 0.053 h{sup {minus}1} to 0.080 h{sup {minus}1} over 8 mo at 25{degree}C.

  15. The dynamics of heterotrophic algal cultures.

    PubMed

    De la Hoz Siegler, H; Ben-Zvi, A; Burrell, R E; McCaffrey, W C

    2011-05-01

    In this work, the time varying characteristics of microalgal cultures are investigated. Microalgae are a promising source of biofuels and other valuable chemicals; a better understanding of their dynamic behavior is, however, required to facilitate process scale-up, optimization and control. Growth and oil production rates are evaluated as a function of carbon and nitrogen sources concentration. It is found that nitrogen has a major role in controlling the productivity of microalgae. Moreover, it is shown that there exists a nitrogen source concentration at which biomass and oil production can be maximized. A mathematical model that describes the effect of nitrogen and carbon source on growth and oil production is proposed. The model considers the uncoupling between nutrient uptake and growth, a characteristic of algal cells. Validity of the proposed model is tested on fed-batch cultures.

  16. The extended Kalman filter for forecast of algal bloom dynamics.

    PubMed

    Mao, J Q; Lee, Joseph H W; Choi, K W

    2009-09-01

    A deterministic ecosystem model is combined with an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to produce short term forecasts of algal bloom and dissolved oxygen dynamics in a marine fish culture zone (FCZ). The weakly flushed FCZ is modelled as a well-mixed system; the tidal exchange with the outer bay is lumped into a flushing rate that is numerically determined from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The ecosystem model incorporates phytoplankton growth kinetics, nutrient uptake, photosynthetic production, nutrient sources from organic fish farm loads, and nutrient exchange with a sediment bed layer. High frequency field observations of chlorophyll, dissolved oxygen (DO) and hydro-meteorological parameters (sampling interval Deltat=1 day, 2h, 1h, respectively) and bi-weekly nutrient data are assimilated into the model to produce the combined state estimate accounting for the uncertainties. In addition to the water quality state variables, the EKF incorporates dynamic estimation of algal growth rate and settling velocity. The effectiveness of the EKF data assimilation is studied for a wide range of sampling intervals and prediction lead-times. The chlorophyll and dissolved oxygen estimated by the EKF are compared with field data of seven algal bloom events observed at Lamma Island, Hong Kong. The results show that the EKF estimate well captures the nonlinear error evolution in time; the chlorophyll level can be satisfactorily predicted by the filtered model estimate with a mean absolute error of around 1-2 microg/L. Predictions with 1-2 day lead-time are highly correlated with the observations (r=0.7-0.9); the correlation stays at a high level for a lead-time of 3 days (r=0.6-0.7). Estimated algal growth and settling rates are in accord with field observations; the more frequent DO data can compensate for less frequent algal biomass measurements. The present study is the first time the EKF is successfully applied to forecast an entire algal bloom cycle, suggesting the

  17. Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Juliano, Steven A.

    2007-01-01

    This chapter reviews aspects of population dynamics that may be conceptually important for biological control of mosquitoes. Density dependent population regulation among immature stages has important implications for biological control of mosquito populations, primarily because it can lead to compensatory or overcompensatory mortality due to additions of a biological control agent. This can result in control efforts leading to no change in the target population, or actual increases in the target population, respectively. Density dependent effects, and compensatory or overcompensatory mortality, appear to be most common in mosquitoes from container or highly ephemeral habitats. In permanent ground water habitats generalist predators appear to limit mosquito populations and so render mortality additive. Thus, biological control in permanent ground water habitats seems to have the highest likelihood of producing a satisfactory result. A central premise of classical biological control is that pest populations are reduced by enemies to stable equilibrium levels that are both below the pre-control equilibrium level, and well below the level producing detrimental effects. This premise results in predictions that successful biological control is likely to involve specialist enemies (usually parasitoids), with short generation times relative to the victim, high rates of successful search, rapid rates of increase, and needing only a few victims to complete their life cycle. These predictions largely fail for mosquito systems, in which successful biological control seems to be associated with generalist enemies that can kill a large portion of the target population, often causing local extinction, and can persist in the absence of the target organism. Biological control of mosquitoes appears to be inherently unstable, thus contrasting sharply with classical biological control. This review suggests a need for better data on density dependent regulation of mosquito populations

  18. Dynamics of ellipsoidal tracers in swimming algal suspensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Ou; Peng, Yi; Liu, Zhengyang; Tang, Chao; Xu, Xinliang; Cheng, Xiang

    2016-10-01

    Enhanced diffusion of passive tracers immersed in active fluids is a universal feature of active fluids and has been extensively studied in recent years. Similar to microrheology for equilibrium complex fluids, the unusual enhanced particle dynamics reveal intrinsic properties of active fluids. Nevertheless, previous studies have shown that the translational dynamics of spherical tracers are qualitatively similar, independent of whether active particles are pushers or pullers—the two fundamental classes of active fluids. Is it possible to distinguish pushers from pullers by simply imaging the dynamics of passive tracers? Here, we investigated the diffusion of isolated ellipsoids in algal C. reinhardtii suspensions—a model for puller-type active fluids. In combination with our previous results on pusher-type E. coli suspensions [Peng et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 068303 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.068303], we showed that the dynamics of asymmetric tracers show a profound difference in pushers and pullers due to their rotational degree of freedom. Although the laboratory-frame translation and rotation of ellipsoids are enhanced in both pushers and pullers, similar to spherical tracers, the anisotropic diffusion in the body frame of ellipsoids shows opposite trends in the two classes of active fluids. An ellipsoid diffuses fastest along its major axis when immersed in pullers, whereas it diffuses slowest along the major axis in pushers. This striking difference can be qualitatively explained using a simple hydrodynamic model. In addition, our study on algal suspensions reveals that the influence of the near-field advection of algal swimming flows on the translation and rotation of ellipsoids shows different ranges and strengths. Our work provides not only new insights into universal organizing principles of active fluids, but also a convenient tool for detecting the class of active particles.

  19. The Structure of Algal Population in the Presence of Toxicants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ipatova, Valentina; Prokhotskaya, Valeria; Dmitrieva, Aida

    Algal bioassays are routinely employed as part of a battery of toxicity tests to assess the environmental impacts of contaminants on aquatic ecosystems. This estimation is an essential component of the ecological risk assessment.

  20. A comprehensive mechanistic model for simulating algal growth dynamics in photobioreactors.

    PubMed

    Shriwastav, Amritanshu; Thomas, Jeenu; Bose, Purnendu

    2017-06-01

    A comprehensive mechanistic model for describing algal growth dynamics in a photobioreactor was developed in this work with state of the art understanding and realistic assumptions for major associated processes. The model included 27 state variables related to various algal processes. This model was validated with extensive experimental data obtained from independent growth experiments in batch reactors, and was able to simulate system performance reasonably well. The comprehensive nature of the formulation also highlights the complex inter-relationship between all processes, and provides a tool for gaining more systematic insights into algal behavior in photobioreactors and other such systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Effect of Algal Inoculation on COD and Nitrogen Removal, and Indigenous Bacterial Dynamics in Municipal Wastewater.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jangho; Lee, Jaejin; Shukla, Sudheer Kumar; Park, Joonhong; Lee, Tae Kwon

    2016-05-28

    The effects of algal inoculation on chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total nitrogen (TN) removal, and indigenous bacterial dynamics were investigated in municipal wastewater. Experiments were conducted with municipal wastewater inoculated with either Chlorella vulgaris AG10032, Selenastrum gracile UTEX 325, or Scenedesmus quadricauda AG 10308. C. vulgaris and S. gracile as fast growing algae in municipal wastewater, performed high COD and TN removal in contrast to Sc. quadricauda. The indigenous bacterial dynamics revealed by 16S rRNA gene amplification showed different bacterial shifts in response to different algal inoculations. The dominant bacterial genera of either algal case were characterized as heterotrophic nitrifying bacteria. Our results suggest that selection of indigenous bacteria that symbiotically interact with algal species is important for better performance of wastewater treatment.

  2. From benchtop to raceway : spectroscopic signatures of dynamic biological processes in algal communities.

    SciTech Connect

    Trahan, Christine Alexandra; Garcia, Omar Fidel; Martino, Anthony A.; Raymer, Michelle; Collins, Aaron M.; Hanson, David T.; Turner, Tom; Powell, Amy Jo; James, Scott Carlton; Timlin, Jerilyn Ann; Scholle, Steven; Dwyer, Brian P.; Ruffing, Anne; Jones, Howland D. T.; Ricken, James Bryce; Reichardt, Thomas A.

    2010-08-01

    The search is on for new renewable energy and algal-derived biofuel is a critical piece in the multi-faceted renewable energy puzzle. It has 30x more oil than any terrestrial oilseed crop, ideal composition for biodiesel, no competition with food crops, can be grown in waste water, and is cleaner than petroleum based fuels. This project discusses these three goals: (1) Conduct fundamental research into the effects that dynamic biotic and abiotic stressors have on algal growth and lipid production - Genomics/Transcriptomics, Bioanalytical spectroscopy/Chemical imaging; (2) Discover spectral signatures for algal health at the benchtop and greenhouse scale - Remote sensing, Bioanalytical spectroscopy; and (3) Develop computational model for algal growth and productivity at the raceway scale - Computational modeling.

  3. Interactions between Predation and Resources Shape Zooplankton Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Nicolle, Alice; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Brodersen, Jakob; Nilsson, P. Anders; Brönmark, Christer

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the relative importance of predation and resources in population dynamics has a long tradition in ecology, while interactions between them have been studied less intensively. In order to disentangle the effects of predation by juvenile fish, algal resource availability and their interactive effects on zooplankton population dynamics, we conducted an enclosure experiment where zooplankton were exposed to a gradient of predation of roach (Rutilus rutilus) at different algal concentrations. We show that zooplankton populations collapse under high predation pressure irrespective of resource availability, confirming that juvenile fish are able to severely reduce zooplankton prey when occurring in high densities. At lower predation pressure, however, the effect of predation depended on algal resource availability since high algal resource supply buffered against predation. Hence, we suggest that interactions between mass-hatching of fish, and the strong fluctuations in algal resources in spring have the potential to regulate zooplankton population dynamics. In a broader perspective, increasing spring temperatures due to global warming will most likely affect the timing of these processes and have consequences for the spring and summer zooplankton dynamics. PMID:21304980

  4. Assessment of Algal Farm Designs Using a Dynamic Modular Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Abodeely, Jared; Coleman, Andre M.; Stevens, Daniel M.; Ray, Allison E.; Cafferty, Kara G.; Newby, Deborah T.

    2014-07-01

    The notion of renewable energy provides an important mechanism for diversifying an energy portfolio, which ultimately would have numerous benefits including increased energy resilience, reduction of foreign energy supplies, reduced GHG emissions, development of a green energy sector that contributes to economic growth, and providing a sustainable energy supply. The conversion of autotrophic algae to liquid transportation fuels is the basis of several decades of research to competitively bring energy-scale production into reality; however, many challenges still remain for making algal biofuels economically viable. Addressing current challenges associated with algal production systems, in part, requires the ability to assess spatial and temporal variability, rapidly evaluate alternative algal production system designs, and perform large-scale assessments considering multiple scenarios for thousands of potential sites. We introduce the Algae Logistics Model (ALM) which helps to address these challenges. The flexible nature of the ALM architecture allows the model to: 1) interface with external biomass production and resource assessment models, as well as other relevant datasets including those with spatiotemporal granularity; 2) interchange design processes to enable operational and economic assessments of multiple design configurations, including the integration of current and new innovative technologies; and 3) conduct trade-off analysis to help understand the site-specific techno-economic trade-offs and inform technology decisions. This study uses the ALM to investigate a baseline open-pond production system determined by model harmonization efforts conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy. Six sites in the U.S. southern-tier were sub-selected and assessed using daily site-specific algae biomass productivity data to determine the economic viability of large-scale open-pond systems. Results show that costs can vary significantly depending on location and biomass

  5. Assessment of Algal Farm Designs using a Dynamic Modular Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Abodeely, Jared M.; Stevens, Daniel M.; Ray, Allison E.; Newby, Deborah T.; Coleman, Andre M.; Cafferty, Kara G.

    2014-07-01

    The notion of renewable energy provides an importantmechanism for diversifying an energy portfolio,which ultimately would have numerous benefits including increased energy resilience, reduced reliance on foreign energysupplies, reduced GHG emissions, development of a green energy sector that contributes to economic growth,and providing a sustainable energy supply. The conversion of autotrophic algae to liquid transportation fuels is the basis of several decades of research to competitively bring energy-scale production into reality; however, many challenges still remain for making algal biofuels economically viable. Addressing current challenges associatedwith algal production systems, in part, requires the ability to assess spatial and temporal variability, rapidly evaluate alternative algal production system designs, and perform large-scale assessments considering multiple scenarios for thousands of potential sites. We introduce the development and application of the Algae Logistics Model (ALM) which is tailored to help address these challenges. The flexible nature of the ALM architecture allows the model to: 1) interface with external biomass production and resource assessment models, as well as other relevant datasets including those with spatiotemporal granularity; 2) interchange design processes to enable operational and economic assessments ofmultiple design configurations, including the integration of current and new innovative technologies; and 3) conduct trade-off analysis to help understand the site-specific techno-economic trade-offs and inform technology decisions. This study uses the ALM to investigate a baseline open-pond production system determined by model harmonization efforts conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy. Six sites in the U.S. southern-tierwere sub-selected and assessed using daily site-specific algaebiomass productivity data to determine the economic viability of large-scale open-pond systems. Results show that costs can vary

  6. Virophage control of antarctic algal host-virus dynamics.

    PubMed

    Yau, Sheree; Lauro, Federico M; DeMaere, Matthew Z; Brown, Mark V; Thomas, Torsten; Raftery, Mark J; Andrews-Pfannkoch, Cynthia; Lewis, Matthew; Hoffman, Jeffrey M; Gibson, John A; Cavicchioli, Ricardo

    2011-04-12

    Viruses are abundant ubiquitous members of microbial communities and in the marine environment affect population structure and nutrient cycling by infecting and lysing primary producers. Antarctic lakes are microbially dominated ecosystems supporting truncated food webs in which viruses exert a major influence on the microbial loop. Here we report the discovery of a virophage (relative of the recently described Sputnik virophage) that preys on phycodnaviruses that infect prasinophytes (phototrophic algae). By performing metaproteogenomic analysis on samples from Organic Lake, a hypersaline meromictic lake in Antarctica, complete virophage and near-complete phycodnavirus genomes were obtained. By introducing the virophage as an additional predator of a predator-prey dynamic model we determined that the virophage stimulates secondary production through the microbial loop by reducing overall mortality of the host and increasing the frequency of blooms during polar summer light periods. Virophages remained abundant in the lake 2 y later and were represented by populations with a high level of major capsid protein sequence variation (25-100% identity). Virophage signatures were also found in neighboring Ace Lake (in abundance) and in two tropical lakes (hypersaline and fresh), an estuary, and an ocean upwelling site. These findings indicate that virophages regulate host-virus interactions, influence overall carbon flux in Organic Lake, and play previously unrecognized roles in diverse aquatic ecosystems.

  7. Virophage control of antarctic algal host–virus dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Yau, Sheree; Lauro, Federico M.; DeMaere, Matthew Z.; Brown, Mark V.; Thomas, Torsten; Raftery, Mark J.; Andrews-Pfannkoch, Cynthia; Lewis, Matthew; Hoffman, Jeffrey M.; Gibson, John A.; Cavicchioli, Ricardo

    2011-01-01

    Viruses are abundant ubiquitous members of microbial communities and in the marine environment affect population structure and nutrient cycling by infecting and lysing primary producers. Antarctic lakes are microbially dominated ecosystems supporting truncated food webs in which viruses exert a major influence on the microbial loop. Here we report the discovery of a virophage (relative of the recently described Sputnik virophage) that preys on phycodnaviruses that infect prasinophytes (phototrophic algae). By performing metaproteogenomic analysis on samples from Organic Lake, a hypersaline meromictic lake in Antarctica, complete virophage and near-complete phycodnavirus genomes were obtained. By introducing the virophage as an additional predator of a predator–prey dynamic model we determined that the virophage stimulates secondary production through the microbial loop by reducing overall mortality of the host and increasing the frequency of blooms during polar summer light periods. Virophages remained abundant in the lake 2 y later and were represented by populations with a high level of major capsid protein sequence variation (25–100% identity). Virophage signatures were also found in neighboring Ace Lake (in abundance) and in two tropical lakes (hypersaline and fresh), an estuary, and an ocean upwelling site. These findings indicate that virophages regulate host–virus interactions, influence overall carbon flux in Organic Lake, and play previously unrecognized roles in diverse aquatic ecosystems. PMID:21444812

  8. In Situ Oxygen Dynamics in Coral-Algal Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Wangpraseurt, Daniel; Weber, Miriam; Røy, Hans; Polerecky, Lubos; de Beer, Dirk; Suharsono; Nugues, Maggy M.

    2012-01-01

    Background Coral reefs degrade globally at an alarming rate, with benthic algae often replacing corals. However, the extent to which benthic algae contribute to coral mortality, and the potential mechanisms involved, remain disputed. Recent laboratory studies suggested that algae kill corals by inducing hypoxia on the coral surface, through stimulated microbial respiration. Methods/Findings We examined the main premise of this hypothesis by measuring in situ oxygen microenvironments at the contact interface between the massive coral Porites spp. and turf algae, and between Porites spp. and crustose coralline algae (CCA). Oxygen levels at the interface were similar to healthy coral tissue and ranged between 300–400 µM during the day. At night, the interface was hypoxic (∼70 µM) in coral-turf interactions and close to anoxic (∼2 µM) in coral-CCA interactions, but these values were not significantly different from healthy tissue. The diffusive boundary layer (DBL) was about three times thicker at the interface than above healthy tissue, due to a depression in the local topography. A numerical model, developed to analyze the oxygen profiles above the irregular interface, revealed strongly reduced net photosynthesis and dark respiration rates at the coral-algal interface compared to unaffected tissue during the day and at night, respectively. Conclusions/Significance Our results showed that hypoxia was not a consistent feature in the microenvironment of the coral-algal interface under in situ conditions. Therefore, hypoxia alone is unlikely to be the cause of coral mortality. Due to the modified topography, the interaction zone is distinguished by a thicker diffusive boundary layer, which limits the local metabolic activity and likely promotes accumulation of potentially harmful metabolic products (e.g., allelochemicals and protons). Our study highlights the importance of mass transfer phenomena and the need for direct in situ measurements of microenvironmental

  9. Effects of DDT and dicofol on population growth of Brachionus calyciflorus under different algal (Scenedesmus obliquus) densities.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiao-Ping; Xi, Yi-Long; Chu, Zhao-Xia; Xiang, Xian-Ling

    2014-09-01

    A number of organochlorine pesticides, including DDT and dicofol, used to be important in crop protection and management. Their residues may reach water bodies and eventually affect the non-target organisms such as rotifers. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of DDT (0.05, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg l(-1)) and dicofol (0.1, 0.2, 0.4 and 0.8 mg l(-1)) on the population growth of rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus under two levels of Scenedesmus obliquus (1.0 x 10(6) and 3.0 x 10(6) cell ml(-1)). Regardless of the food level, DDT was more toxic than dicofol to B. calyciflorus. Under low food level, DDT at 0.1 and 0.2 mg l(-1) decreased the population growth rate (r), and DDT at 0.05-0.4 mg l(-1) decreased the maximum population density (K). Dicofol at 0.4 and 0.8 mg l(-1) decreased r and K, but dicofol at 0.2 mg l(-1) increased K. Under high food level, DDT at 0.05-0.2 mg l(-1) increased K, whereas DDT at 0.4 mg l(-1) as well as dicofol at 0.4 and 0.8 mg l(-1) decreased r and K. Increase in food level increased r exposed to DDT at 0.05-0.2 mg l(-1) as well as dicofol at 0.8 mg l(-1), and Kexposed to DDTat 0.05-0.2 mg l(-1) as well as dicofol at 0.1 and 0.2 mg l(-1). DDT concentration, algal density and their interaction affected r and K of B. calyciflorus. Both dicofol concentration and algal density affected r. Dicofol concentration, algal density and their interaction affected K. Both r and K were suitable endpoints for assessing the effects of DDT and dicofol on the rotifers population dynamics under two algal densities, and the latter was more sensitive.

  10. Carbon conversion efficiency and population dynamics of a marine algae-bacteria consortium growing on simplified synthetic digestate: first step in a bioprocess coupling algal production and anaerobic digestion.

    PubMed

    Vasseur, Christophe; Bougaran, Gaël; Garnier, Matthieu; Hamelin, Jérôme; Leboulanger, Christophe; Le Chevanton, Myriam; Mostajir, Behzad; Sialve, Bruno; Steyer, Jean-Philippe; Fouilland, Eric

    2012-09-01

    Association of microalgae culture and anaerobic digestion seems a promising technology for sustainable algal biomass and biogas production. The use of digestates for sustaining the growth of microalgae reduces the costs and the environmental impacts associated with the substantial algal nutrient requirements. A natural marine algae-bacteria consortium was selected by growing on a medium containing macro nutrients (ammonia, phosphate and acetate) specific of a digestate, and was submitted to a factorial experimental design with different levels of temperature, light and pH. The microalgal consortium reached a maximum C conversion efficiency (i.e. ratio between carbon content produced and carbon supplied through light photosynthetic C conversion and acetate) of 3.6%. The presence of bacteria increased this maximum C conversion efficiency up to 6.3%. The associated bacterial community was considered beneficial to the total biomass production by recycling the carbon lost during photosynthesis and assimilating organic by-products from anaerobic digestion. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Algal genotype and photoacclimatory responses of the symbiotic alga Symbiodinium in natural populations of the sea anemone Anemonia viridis

    PubMed Central

    Bythell, J. C.; Douglas, A. E.; Sharp, V. A.; Searle, J. B.; Brown, B. E.

    1997-01-01

    As an approach to investigate the impact of solar radiation on an alga–invertebrate symbiosis, the genetic variation and photosynthetic responses of the dinoflagellate algal symbiosis in an intertidal and a subtidal population of the sea anemone Anemonia viridis were explored. Allozyme analysis of the anemones indicated that the two populations were genetically very similar, with a Nei's index value of genetic identity (I) of 0.998. The algae in all animals examined were identified as Symbiodinium of clade a by PCR-RFLP analysis of the small subunit ribosomal RNA gene. The symbiosis in the two populations did not differ significantly in algal population density, chlorophyll a content per algal cell or any photosynthetic parameter obtained from studies of the relationship between photosynthesis and irradiance. We conclude that there is not necessarily genetic variation or photosynthetic plasticity of the symbiotic algae in Anemonia viridis inhabiting environments characterized by the different solar irradiances of the subtidal and intertidal habitats.

  12. Regional Population Dynamics

    Treesearch

    Andrew Birt

    2011-01-01

    The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

  13. Algal Populations and Water Quality in Florida Lakes: Sedimentary Evidence of Anthropogenic Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitmore, M. R.; Whitmore, T. J.; Brenner, M.; Smoak, J.; Curtis, J.

    2004-05-01

    Cyanobacteria and other algae dominate many highly productive Florida (U.S.A.) lakes. Algal proliferation is often attributed to eutrophication during the last century, but it is poorly documented because Florida's water-quality monitoring programs became common only after 1980. We examined sediment cores from 14 hypereutrophic Florida lakes. Study lakes have been subjected to urbanization, agriculture, and to inputs of municipal sewage effluent and food-processing wastes. Major algal-pigment groups were analyzed in sediments using pigment-extraction and spectrophotometric techniques. We compared myxoxanthophyll, oscillaxanthin, total carotenoid, and total chlorophyll pigment profiles with WACALIB-derived limnetic total-P and chlorophyll a inferences based on fossil diatoms, sediment chemistry, and stable isotope (δ 13C & δ 15N) signatures of organic matter. Sedimentary evidence showed that cyanobacterial and algal proliferation appeared during recent decades in 10 study lakes in response to eutrophication. Cyanobacterial increase was very recent and abrupt in 7 lakes. Six lakes showed recovery following nutrient-mitigation programs that reduced sewage and other point-source effluent inputs. Four lakes showed long-term presence of cyanobacterial populations because edaphic nutrient supply causes these lakes to be naturally productive. Three of these naturally eutrophic lakes remained unchanged, but one demonstrated eutrophication followed by subsequent recovery. Correlations were particularly strong among sedimented pigment profiles and diatom-inferred limnetic water-quality profiles. Paleolimnological methods provide informative assessment of anthropogenic influence on lakes when long-term water-quality data are lacking. Historic studies also are useful for evaluating the feasibility of improving water quality through lake-management programs, and for defining appropriate lake restoration goals.

  14. Extinction in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Escudero, C.; Buceta, J.; de La Rubia, F. J.; Lindenberg, Katja

    2004-02-01

    We study a generic reaction-diffusion model for single-species population dynamics that includes reproduction, death, and competition. The population is assumed to be confined in a refuge beyond which conditions are so harsh that they lead to certain extinction. Standard continuum mean field models in one dimension yield a critical refuge length Lc such that a population in a refuge larger than this is assured survival. Herein we extend the model to take into account the discreteness and finiteness of the population, which leads us to a stochastic description. We present a particular critical criterion for likely extinction, namely, that the standard deviation of the population be equal to the mean. According to this criterion, we find that while survival can no longer be guaranteed for any refuge size, for sufficiently weak competition one can make the refuge large enough (certainly larger than Lc) to cause extinction to be unlikely. However, beyond a certain value of the competition rate parameter it is no longer possible to escape a likelihood of extinction even in an infinite refuge. These unavoidable fluctuations therefore have a severe impact on refuge design issues.

  15. Seasonal Dynamics of Haptophytes and dsDNA Algal Viruses Suggest Complex Virus-Host Relationship.

    PubMed

    Johannessen, Torill Vik; Larsen, Aud; Bratbak, Gunnar; Pagarete, António; Edvardsen, Bente; Egge, Elianne D; Sandaa, Ruth-Anne

    2017-04-20

    Viruses influence the ecology and diversity of phytoplankton in the ocean. Most studies of phytoplankton host-virus interactions have focused on bloom-forming species like Emiliania huxleyi or Phaeocystis spp. The role of viruses infecting phytoplankton that do not form conspicuous blooms have received less attention. Here we explore the dynamics of phytoplankton and algal viruses over several sequential seasons, with a focus on the ubiquitous and diverse phytoplankton division Haptophyta, and their double-stranded DNA viruses, potentially with the capacity to infect the haptophytes. Viral and phytoplankton abundance and diversity showed recurrent seasonal changes, mainly explained by hydrographic conditions. By 454 tag-sequencing we revealed 93 unique haptophyte operational taxonomic units (OTUs), with seasonal changes in abundance. Sixty-one unique viral OTUs, representing Megaviridae and Phycodnaviridae, showed only distant relationship with currently isolated algal viruses. Haptophyte and virus community composition and diversity varied substantially throughout the year, but in an uncoordinated manner. A minority of the viral OTUs were highly abundant at specific time-points, indicating a boom-bust relationship with their host. Most of the viral OTUs were very persistent, which may represent viruses that coexist with their hosts, or able to exploit several host species.

  16. Seasonal Dynamics of Haptophytes and dsDNA Algal Viruses Suggest Complex Virus-Host Relationship

    PubMed Central

    Johannessen, Torill Vik; Larsen, Aud; Bratbak, Gunnar; Pagarete, António; Edvardsen, Bente; Egge, Elianne D.; Sandaa, Ruth-Anne

    2017-01-01

    Viruses influence the ecology and diversity of phytoplankton in the ocean. Most studies of phytoplankton host–virus interactions have focused on bloom-forming species like Emiliania huxleyi or Phaeocystis spp. The role of viruses infecting phytoplankton that do not form conspicuous blooms have received less attention. Here we explore the dynamics of phytoplankton and algal viruses over several sequential seasons, with a focus on the ubiquitous and diverse phytoplankton division Haptophyta, and their double-stranded DNA viruses, potentially with the capacity to infect the haptophytes. Viral and phytoplankton abundance and diversity showed recurrent seasonal changes, mainly explained by hydrographic conditions. By 454 tag-sequencing we revealed 93 unique haptophyte operational taxonomic units (OTUs), with seasonal changes in abundance. Sixty-one unique viral OTUs, representing Megaviridae and Phycodnaviridae, showed only distant relationship with currently isolated algal viruses. Haptophyte and virus community composition and diversity varied substantially throughout the year, but in an uncoordinated manner. A minority of the viral OTUs were highly abundant at specific time-points, indicating a boom-bust relationship with their host. Most of the viral OTUs were very persistent, which may represent viruses that coexist with their hosts, or able to exploit several host species. PMID:28425942

  17. Metal toxicity inferred from algal population density, heterotrophic substrate use, and fatty acid profile in a small stream

    SciTech Connect

    Genter, R.B.; Lehman, R.M.

    2000-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine relations between metal concentrations in periphyton and the abundance of algal species, heterotrophic use of 95 carbon sources, and phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) of the periphyton in a small stream spanning a mine in Lemhi County, Idaho, USA. Two upstream two mine, and two downstream sites were examined. Elevated concentrations of As and Cu at the mine sites were associated with communities that were depleted of diatoms and filamentous blue-green algae and characterized by a low-diversity community dominated by a single blue-green alga and patchy populations of the diatom Achnanthidium minutissimum and a filamentous green alga. Carbon source use and PLFA profiles provided a rapid assessment of stream conditions that were consistent with algal taxonomy and with the hypotheses constructed from previous reports on periphyton responses to metal stress.

  18. Population growth of Brachionus macracanthus (Rotifera) in relation to cadmium toxicity: influence of algal (Chlorella vulgaris) density.

    PubMed

    Nandini, S; Chaparro-Herrera, Diego De Jesús; Cárdenas-Arriola, Sara Leticia; Sarma, S S S

    2007-08-01

    In the present work, we quantified the harmful effects of Cd(+ 2) to Brachionus macracanthus using both acute (median lethal) and chronic (population growth) toxicity tests. Chronic toxicity tests were conducted under 4 different concentrations (0.000625-0.005 mg L(- 1)) of cadmium chloride at 23 degrees C under 3 food (Chlorella vulgaris) levels (0.5 x 10(6), 1.0 x 10(6) and 2.0 x 10(6) cells mL(- 1)) using static renewal system for three weeks. The median lethal concentration bioassayed at 24 h (LC(50)) for B. macracanthus was 0.19 mg L(- 1) of CdCl(2). Cadmium adversely affected the population growth of B. macracanthus at all tested concentrations. Increase in algal food had a positive effect on the rotifer growth in controls; with increase in Cd levels, the population growth of B. macracanthus decreased even under the highest food level tested. The peak population abundance of B. macracanthus in controls at the highest food level of 2.0 x 10(6) cells mL(- 1) was 40 ind. mL(- 1). Depending on the heavy metal concentration and the algal level, the population growth rate (r) of B. macracanthus varied from 0.02 to 0.28 day(- 1). The relatively higher sensitivity of B. macracanthus to cadmium toxicity is discussed in relation to other species of the same genus.

  19. Influence of Diadema antillarum populations (Echinodermata: Diadematidae) on algal community structure in Jardines de la Reina, Cuba.

    PubMed

    Martín Blanco, Félix; Clero Alonso, Lídice; González Sansón, Gaspar; Amargós Fabián, Pina

    2011-09-01

    The 1983-1984 mass mortality of Diadema antillarum produced severe damages on Caribbean reefs contributing to substantial changes in community structure that still persist. Despite the importance of Diadema grazing in structuring coral reefs, available information on current abundances and algal-urchin interactions in Cuba is scarce. We analyzed spatial variations in Diadema abundance and its influence on algal community structure in 22 reef sites in Jardines de la Reina, in June/2004 and April/2005. Urchins were counted in five 30 x 2m transects per site, and algal coverage was estimated in randomly located 0.25m side quadrats (15 per site). Abundances of Diadema were higher at reef crests (0.013-1.553 ind/m2), while reef slope populations showed values up to three orders of magnitude lower and were overgrown by macroalgae (up to 87%, local values). Algal community structure at reef slopes were dominated by macroalgae, especially Dictyota, Lobophora and Halimeda while the most abundant macroalgae at reef crests were Halimeda and Amphiroa. Urchin densities were negatively and positively correlated with mean coverage of macroalgae and crustose coralline algae, respectively, when analyzing data pooled across all sites, but not with data from separate habitats (specially reef crest), suggesting, along with historical fish biomass, that shallow reef community structure is being shaped by the synergistic action of other factors (e.g. fish grazing) rather than the influence of Diadema alone. However, we observed clear signs of Diadema grazing at reef crests and decreased macroalgal cover according to 2001 data, what suggest that grazing intensity at this habitat increased at the same time that Diadema recruitment began to be noticeable. Furthermore, the excessive abundance of macroalgae at reef slopes and the scarcity of crustose coralline algae seems to be due by the almost complete absence of D. antillarum at mid depth reefs, where local densities of this urchin were

  20. Phosphate dynamics in an acidic mountain stream: Interactions involving algal uptake, sorption by iron oxide, and photoreduction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tate, Cathy M.; Broshears, Robert E.; McKnight, Diane M.

    1995-01-01

    Acid mine drainage streams in the Rocky Mountains typically have few algal species and abundant iron oxide deposits which can sorb phosphate. An instream injection of radiolabeled phosphate (32P0,) into St. Kevin Gulch, an acid mine drainage stream, was used to test the ability of a dominant algal species, Ulothrix sp., to rapidly assimilate phosphate. Approximately 90% of the injected phosphate was removed from the water column in the 175-m stream reach. When shaded stream reaches were exposed to full sunlight after the injection ended, photoreductive dissolution of iron oxide released sorbed 32P, which was then also removed downstream. The removal from the stream was modeled as a first-order process by using a reactive solute transport transient storage model. Concentrations of 32P mass-’ of algae were typically lo-fold greater than concentrations in hydrous iron oxides. During the injection, concentrations of 32P increased in the cellular P pool containing soluble, low-molecular-weight compounds and confirmed direct algal uptake of 32P0, from water. Mass balance calculations indicated that algal uptake and sorption on iron oxides were significant in removing phosphate. We conclude that in stream ecosystems, PO, sorbed by iron oxides can act as a dynamic nutrient reservoir regulated by photoreduction.

  1. Evolutionary dynamics of diploid populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desimone, Ralph; Newman, Timothy

    2003-10-01

    There has been much recent interest in constructing computer models of evolutionary dynamics. Typically these models focus on asexual population dynamics, which are appropriate for haploid organsims such as bacteria. Using a recently developed ``genome template'' model, we extend the algorithm to a sexual population of diploid organisms. We will present some early results showing the temporal evolution of mean fitness and genetic variation, and compare this to typical results from haploid populations.

  2. [Dynamics of suspended solids in Xiangxi Bay of Three Gorges Reservoir during spring algal bloom period].

    PubMed

    Xu, Yao-Yang; Wang, Lan; Han, Xin-Qin; Cai, Qing-Hua

    2009-04-01

    The dynamics of total suspended solids (TSS) in Xiangxi Bay of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) during the period of spring algal bloom were weekly investigated. The results showed that the TSS in the Bay ranged from 0.66 to 134.92 mg x L(-1), with a median of 6.80 mg x L(-1), and tended to be increased from headwater to down-lake zones. The spatial pattern of non-volatile suspended solids (NVSS) was similar to that of TSS, while volatile suspended solids (VSS) showed obviously different pattern from TSS and followed the spatial pattern of chlorophyll a. Regression analysis indicated that in the mid-zone of the Bay, chlorophyll a was significantly related to TSS and VSS, and explained 66.7%-96.7% and 58.9%-85.5% of the variance in TSS and VSS, respectively. In the headwater and down-lake zones, there were no significant relationships between chlorophyll a and TSS (including NVSS and VSS). The TSS in mid-lake had more close relationship with VSS than with NVSS, while that in headwater and down-lake had more close relationship with NVSS than with VSS, implying that the mid-lake of Xiangxi Bay was a more autochthonous system than the headwater and down-lake where allochthonous influences were the more determinant factors.

  3. Natural selection and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Saccheri, Ilik; Hanski, Ilkka

    2006-06-01

    To what extent, and under which circumstances, are population dynamics influenced by concurrent natural selection? Density dependence and environmental stochasticity are generally expected to subsume any selective modulation of population growth rate, but theoretical considerations point to conditions under which selection can have an appreciable impact on population dynamics. By contrast, empirical research has barely scratched the surface of this fundamental question in population biology. Here, we present a diverse body of mostly empirical evidence that demonstrates how selection can influence population dynamics, including studies of small populations, metapopulations, cyclical populations and host-pathogen interactions. We also discuss the utility, in this context, of inferences from molecular genetic data, placing them within the broader framework of quantitative genetics and life-history evolution.

  4. Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data.

    PubMed

    Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R

    2016-02-01

    Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes.

  5. Optimizing algal cultivation & productivity : an innovative, multidiscipline, and multiscale approach.

    SciTech Connect

    Murton, Jaclyn K.; Hanson, David T.; Turner, Tom; Powell, Amy Jo; James, Scott Carlton; Timlin, Jerilyn Ann; Scholle, Steven; August, Andrew; Dwyer, Brian P.; Ruffing, Anne; Jones, Howland D. T.; Ricken, James Bryce; Reichardt, Thomas A.

    2010-04-01

    Progress in algal biofuels has been limited by significant knowledge gaps in algal biology, particularly as they relate to scale-up. To address this we are investigating how culture composition dynamics (light as well as biotic and abiotic stressors) describe key biochemical indicators of algal health: growth rate, photosynthetic electron transport, and lipid production. Our approach combines traditional algal physiology with genomics, bioanalytical spectroscopy, chemical imaging, remote sensing, and computational modeling to provide an improved fundamental understanding of algal cell biology across multiple cultures scales. This work spans investigations from the single-cell level to ensemble measurements of algal cell cultures at the laboratory benchtop to large greenhouse scale (175 gal). We will discuss the advantages of this novel, multidisciplinary strategy and emphasize the importance of developing an integrated toolkit to provide sensitive, selective methods for detecting early fluctuations in algal health, productivity, and population diversity. Progress in several areas will be summarized including identification of spectroscopic signatures for algal culture composition, stress level, and lipid production enabled by non-invasive spectroscopic monitoring of the photosynthetic and photoprotective pigments at the single-cell and bulk-culture scales. Early experiments compare and contrast the well-studied green algae chlamydomonas with two potential production strains of microalgae, nannochloropsis and dunnaliella, under optimal and stressed conditions. This integrated approach has the potential for broad impact on algal biofuels and bioenergy and several of these opportunities will be discussed.

  6. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  7. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  8. 16S rDNA-based metagenomic analysis of bacterial diversity associated with two populations of the kleptoplastic sea slug Elysia chlorotica and its algal prey Vaucheria litorea.

    PubMed

    Devine, Susan P; Pelletreau, Karen N; Rumpho, Mary E

    2012-08-01

    The molluscan sea slug Elysia chlorotica is best known for its obligate endosymbiosis with chloroplasts (= kleptoplasty) from its algal prey Vaucheria litorea and its ability to sustain itself photoautotrophically for several months. This unusual photosynthetic sea slug also harbors an array of undescribed bacteria, which may contribute to the long-term success of the symbiosis. Here, we utilized 16S rDNA-based metagenomic analyses to characterize the microbial diversity associated with two populations of E. chlorotica from Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, and from Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, USA. Animals were examined immediately after collection from their native environments, after being starved of their algal prey for several months, and after being bred in the laboratory (second-generation sea slugs) to characterize the effect of varying environmental and culturing conditions on the associated bacteria. Additionally, the microbiome of the algal prey, laboratory-cultured V. litorea, was analyzed to determine whether the laboratory-bred sea slugs obtained bacteria from their algal food source during development. Bacterial profiles varied between populations and among all conditions except for the F2 laboratory-bred samples, which were similar in diversity and abundance, but not to the algal microbiome. Alpha-, beta-, and gamma-proteobacteria dominated all of the samples along with Actinobacteria, Bacilli, Flavobacteria, and Sphingobacteria. Bacteria capable of polysaccharide digestion and photosynthesis, as well as putative nitrogen fixation, vitamin B(12) production, and natural product biosynthesis were associated with the sea slug and algal samples.

  9. Discreteness effects in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Lecomte, Vivien

    2016-05-01

    We analyse numerically the effects of small population size in the initial transient regime of a simple example population dynamics. These effects play an important role for the numerical determination of large deviation functions of additive observables for stochastic processes. A method commonly used in order to determine such functions is the so-called cloning algorithm which in its non-constant population version essentially reduces to the determination of the growth rate of a population, averaged over many realizations of the dynamics. However, the averaging of populations is highly dependent not only on the number of realizations of the population dynamics, and on the initial population size but also on the cut-off time (or population) considered to stop their numerical evolution. This may result in an over-influence of discreteness effects at initial times, caused by small population size. We overcome these effects by introducing a (realization-dependent) time delay in the evolution of populations, additional to the discarding of the initial transient regime of the population growth where these discreteness effects are strong. We show that the improvement in the estimation of the large deviation function comes precisely from these two main contributions.

  10. Analysis of green algal growth via dynamic model simulation and process optimization.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dongda; Chanona, Ehecatl Antonio Del-Rio; Vassiliadis, Vassilios S; Tamburic, Bojan

    2015-10-01

    Chlamydomonas reinhardtii is a green microalga with the potential to generate sustainable biofuels for the future. Process simulation models are required to predict the impact of laboratory-scale growth experiments on future scaled-up system operation. Two dynamic models were constructed to simulate C. reinhardtii photo-autotrophic and photo-mixotrophic growth. A novel parameter estimation methodology was applied to determine the values of key parameters in both models, which were then verified using experimental results. The photo-mixotrophic model was used to accurately predict C. reinhardtii growth under different light intensities and in different photobioreactor configurations. The optimal dissolved CO2 concentration for C. reinhardtii photo-autotrophic growth was determined to be 0.0643 g·L(-1) , and the optimal light intensity for algal growth was 47 W·m(-2) . Sensitivity analysis revealed that the primary factor limiting C. reinhardtii growth was its intrinsic cell decay rate rather than light attenuation, regardless of the growth mode. The photo-mixotrophic growth model was also applied to predict the maximum biomass concentration at different flat-plate photobioreactors scales. A double-exposure-surface photobioreactor with a lower light intensity (less than 50 W·m(-2) ) was the best configuration for scaled-up C. reinhardtii cultivation. Three different short-term (30-day) C. reinhardtii photo-mixotrophic cultivation processes were simulated and optimised. The maximum biomass productivity was 0.053 g·L(-1) ·hr(-1) , achieved under continuous photobioreactor operation. The continuous stirred-tank reactor was the best operating mode, as it provides both the highest biomass productivity and lowest electricity cost of pump operation.

  11. Remote sensing of ALGAL pigments to determine coastal phytoplankton dynamics in Florida Bay

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, L.L.; Ambrosia, V.G.

    1997-06-01

    An important component of remote sensing of marine and coastal environments is the detection of phytoplankton to estimate biological activity. Traditionally the focus has been on detection of chlorophyll a, a photosynthetic pigment common to all algal groups. Recent advances in remote sensing instrumentation, in particular the development of hyperspectral imaging sensors, allow detection of additional algal pigments that include taxonomically significant photosynthetic and photoprotective accessory pigments. We are working with the hyperspectral imaging sensor AVIRIS (the Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) to characterize phytoplankton blooms in Florida Bay. Our data analysis focuses on intersection of image data (and image-derived spectral data) with our in-house library of algal pigment signatures.

  12. Evolutionary dynamics in finite populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauert, Christoph

    2013-03-01

    Traditionally, evolutionary dynamics has been studied based on infinite populations and deterministic frameworks such as the replicator equation. Only more recently the focus has shifted to the stochastic dynamics arising in finite populations. Over the past years new concepts have been developed to describe such dynamics and has lead to interesting results that arise from the stochastic, microscopic updates, which drive the evolutionary process. Here we discuss a transparent link between the dynamics in finite and infinite populations. The focus on microscopic processes reveals interesting insights into (sometimes implicit) assumptions in terms of biological interactions that provide the basis for deterministic frameworks and the replicator equation in particular. More specifically, we demonstrate that stochastic differential equations can provide an efficient approach to model evolutionary dynamics in finite populations and we use the rock-scissors-paper game with mutations as an example. For sufficiently large populations the agreement with individual based simulations is excellent, with the interesting caveat that mutation events may not be too rare. In the absence of mutations, the excellent agreement extends to small population sizes.

  13. Diversity and dynamics of algal Megaviridae members during a harmful brown tide caused by the pelagophyte, Aureococcus anophagefferens.

    PubMed

    Moniruzzaman, Mohammad; Gann, Eric R; LeCleir, Gary R; Kang, Yoonja; Gobler, Christopher J; Wilhelm, Steven W

    2016-05-01

    Many giant dsDNA algal viruses share a common ancestor with Mimivirus--one of the largest viruses, in terms of genetic content. Together, these viruses form the proposed 'Megaviridae' clade of nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses. To gauge Megaviridae diversity, we designed degenerate primers targeting the major capsid protein genes of algae-infecting viruses within this group and probed the clade's diversity during the course of a brown tide bloom caused by the harmful pelagophyte,Aureococcus anophagefferens We amplified target sequences in water samples from two distinct locations (Weesuck Creek and Quantuck Bay, NY) covering 12 weeks concurrent with the proliferation and demise of a bloom. In total, 475 amplicons clustered into 145 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) at 97% identity. One OTU contained 19 sequences with ≥97% identity to AaV, a member of the Megaviridae clade that infects A. anophagefferens, suggesting AaV was present during the bloom. Unifrac analysis showed clear temporal patterns in algal Megaviridae dynamics, with a shift in the virus community structure that corresponded to the Aureococcus bloom decline in both locations. Our data provide insights regarding the environmental relevance of algal Megaviridae members and raise important questions regarding their phylodynamics across different environmental gradients.

  14. Dose-structured population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ginn, Timothy R; Loge, Frank J

    2007-07-01

    Applied population dynamics modeling is relied upon with increasing frequency to quantify how human activities affect human and non-human populations. Current techniques include variously the population's spatial transport, age, size, and physiology, but typically not the life-histories of exposure to other important things occurring in the ambient environment, such as chemicals, heat, or radiation. Consequently, the effects of such 'abiotic' aspects of an ecosystem on populations are only currently addressed through individual-based modeling approaches that despite broad utility are limited in their applicability to realistic ecosystems [V. Grimm, Ten years of individual-based modeling in ecology: what have we learned and what could we learn in the future? Ecol. Model. 115 (1999) 129-148][1]. We describe a new category of population dynamics modeling, wherein population dynamical states of the biotic phases are structured on dose, and apply this framework to demonstrate how chemical species or other ambient aspects can be included in population dynamics in three separate examples involving growth suppression in fish, inactivation of microorganisms with ultraviolet irradiation, and metabolic lag in population growth. Dose-structuring is based on a kinematic approach that is a simple generalization of age-structuring, views the ecosystem as a multi-component mixture with reacting biotic/abiotic components. The resulting model framework accommodates (a) different memories of exposure as in recovery from toxic ambient conditions, (b) differentiation between exogenous and endogenous sources of variation in population response, and (c) quantification of acute or sub-acute effects on populations arising from life-history exposures to abiotic species. Classical models do not easily address the very important fact that organisms differ and have different experiences over their life cycle. The dose structuring is one approach to incorporate some of these elements into the

  15. Study on the dynamics of algal bloom and its influence factors in Tolo Harbour, Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Li, Y S; Chen, X; Wai, Onyx W H; King, B

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, the semi-enclosed bay named Tolo Harbour and Channel in Hong Kong, which was frequently attacked by red tides, was used as a case study. Data sets related to marine water quality, river nutrients, and meteorological conditions recorded between 1988 and 1999 were chosen for statistical analysis. A multivariate analysis showed that algal growth, represented by the chlorophyll a concentration, had obvious spatial and temporal variations in the study area. The chlorophyll a concentration had a consistently decreasing trend from the inner part of the Harbour and surface waters to the outer part and bottom waters. The temporal variations had a markedly seasonal variation with high bioproductivity in spring and winter. There were long-term fluctuations in the chlorophyll a concentration with a high-low-high pattern in the study period. Nutrients and hydrological and meteorological conditions were important factors of algal bloom. Besides nitrogen, which was the most critical factor of algal bloom for the whole water body, total phosphorus in the surface waters and phosphate (PO4) and silica (SiO2) in the bottom waters also showed strongly positive or negative correlations with the chlorophyll a level. For the meteorological conditions, global solar radiation was the key factor of massive algal bloom in the study period, while rainfall and wind direction were the most important factors of seasonal variation.

  16. Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1979-01-01

    The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

  17. Evolutionary dynamics in structured populations

    PubMed Central

    Nowak, Martin A.; Tarnita, Corina E.; Antal, Tibor

    2010-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics shape the living world around us. At the centre of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The structure of that population affects evolutionary dynamics. The individuals can be molecules, cells, viruses, multicellular organisms or humans. Whenever the fitness of individuals depends on the relative abundance of phenotypes in the population, we are in the realm of evolutionary game theory. Evolutionary game theory is a general approach that can describe the competition of species in an ecosystem, the interaction between hosts and parasites, between viruses and cells, and also the spread of ideas and behaviours in the human population. In this perspective, we review the recent advances in evolutionary game dynamics with a particular emphasis on stochastic approaches in finite sized and structured populations. We give simple, fundamental laws that determine how natural selection chooses between competing strategies. We study the well-mixed population, evolutionary graph theory, games in phenotype space and evolutionary set theory. We apply these results to the evolution of cooperation. The mechanism that leads to the evolution of cooperation in these settings could be called ‘spatial selection’: cooperators prevail against defectors by clustering in physical or other spaces. PMID:20008382

  18. Recruit/algal interaction prevents recovery of overexploited mussel beds: Indirect evidence that post-settlement mortality structures mussel populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erlandsson, Johan; McQuaid, Christopher D.; Stanczak, Sara

    2011-03-01

    The mechanisms maintaining community structure following an ecosystem shift are poorly understood and we propose that they must inherently be biological. Over-exploitation can provide a "natural experiment" with man as a predator driving a change in community structure, possibly an ecosystem shift. We examined a possible mechanism that maintains algal beds as an alternative state on the east coast of South Africa where the mussel Perna perna has been overexploited. Even on unexploited shores, about 50% of mussel larvae settle onto algae, but it is unclear whether they later recruit into adult beds. On such shores we used two indirect field approaches to understand the fate of recruits, testing whether inhibition of mussel recruitment by macroalgae could constitute a biological mechanism preventing reversion from the algal to the pre-disturbance mussel-dominated state. First, we examined possible ontogenetic migration of recruits from algae to adult mussels, testing the prediction that the ratio large:small recruits in adult beds is greater where algae are liberally interspersed with mussels. Second, we examined whether, like adults, recruits show spatial structure that is related to the distribution of topographic depressions, testing the hypothesis that large and small recruits show different co-variation with depressions, microhabitats where algae commonly occur. We found no evidence that recruits on algae actively move to nearby mussel beds as neither the ratio large:small recruits nor the abundances of small or large recruits showed any relationship with algal cover/variability. Small and large recruits showed different co-variation with topographic depressions on spatially structured transects. Like adults, large recruits commonly exhibited negative relationships with depressions. Thus, large recruits neither occur on algae nor migrate from algae to the primary substratum or onto adult beds. Consequently our results (a) highlight the importance of post

  19. Intron Invasions Trace Algal Speciation and Reveal Nearly Identical Arctic and Antarctic Micromonas Populations.

    PubMed

    Simmons, Melinda P; Bachy, Charles; Sudek, Sebastian; van Baren, Marijke J; Sudek, Lisa; Ares, Manuel; Worden, Alexandra Z

    2015-09-01

    Spliceosomal introns are a hallmark of eukaryotic genes that are hypothesized to play important roles in genome evolution but have poorly understood origins. Although most introns lack sequence homology to each other, new families of spliceosomal introns that are repeated hundreds of times in individual genomes have recently been discovered in a few organisms. The prevalence and conservation of these introner elements (IEs) or introner-like elements in other taxa, as well as their evolutionary relationships to regular spliceosomal introns, are still unknown. Here, we systematically investigate introns in the widespread marine green alga Micromonas and report new families of IEs, numerous intron presence-absence polymorphisms, and potential intron insertion hot-spots. The new families enabled identification of conserved IE secondary structure features and establishment of a novel general model for repetitive intron proliferation across genomes. Despite shared secondary structure, the IE families from each Micromonas lineage bear no obvious sequence similarity to those in the other lineages, suggesting that their appearance is intimately linked with the process of speciation. Two of the new IE families come from an Arctic culture (Micromonas Clade E2) isolated from a polar region where abundance of this alga is increasing due to climate induced changes. The same two families were detected in metagenomic data from Antarctica--a system where Micromonas has never before been reported. Strikingly high identity between the Arctic isolate and Antarctic coding sequences that flank the IEs suggests connectivity between populations in the two polar systems that we postulate occurs through deep-sea currents. Recovery of Clade E2 sequences in North Atlantic Deep Waters beneath the Gulf Stream supports this hypothesis. Our research illuminates the dynamic relationships between an unusual class of repetitive introns, genome evolution, speciation, and global distribution of this

  20. Intron Invasions Trace Algal Speciation and Reveal Nearly Identical Arctic and Antarctic Micromonas Populations

    PubMed Central

    Simmons, Melinda P.; Bachy, Charles; Sudek, Sebastian; van Baren, Marijke J.; Sudek, Lisa; Ares, Manuel; Worden, Alexandra Z.

    2015-01-01

    Spliceosomal introns are a hallmark of eukaryotic genes that are hypothesized to play important roles in genome evolution but have poorly understood origins. Although most introns lack sequence homology to each other, new families of spliceosomal introns that are repeated hundreds of times in individual genomes have recently been discovered in a few organisms. The prevalence and conservation of these introner elements (IEs) or introner-like elements in other taxa, as well as their evolutionary relationships to regular spliceosomal introns, are still unknown. Here, we systematically investigate introns in the widespread marine green alga Micromonas and report new families of IEs, numerous intron presence–absence polymorphisms, and potential intron insertion hot-spots. The new families enabled identification of conserved IE secondary structure features and establishment of a novel general model for repetitive intron proliferation across genomes. Despite shared secondary structure, the IE families from each Micromonas lineage bear no obvious sequence similarity to those in the other lineages, suggesting that their appearance is intimately linked with the process of speciation. Two of the new IE families come from an Arctic culture (Micromonas Clade E2) isolated from a polar region where abundance of this alga is increasing due to climate induced changes. The same two families were detected in metagenomic data from Antarctica—a system where Micromonas has never before been reported. Strikingly high identity between the Arctic isolate and Antarctic coding sequences that flank the IEs suggests connectivity between populations in the two polar systems that we postulate occurs through deep-sea currents. Recovery of Clade E2 sequences in North Atlantic Deep Waters beneath the Gulf Stream supports this hypothesis. Our research illuminates the dynamic relationships between an unusual class of repetitive introns, genome evolution, speciation, and global distribution of

  1. Stochastic Gain in Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traulsen, Arne; Röhl, Torsten; Schuster, Heinz Georg

    2004-07-01

    We introduce an extension of the usual replicator dynamics to adaptive learning rates. We show that a population with a dynamic learning rate can gain an increased average payoff in transient phases and can also exploit external noise, leading the system away from the Nash equilibrium, in a resonancelike fashion. The payoff versus noise curve resembles the signal to noise ratio curve in stochastic resonance. Seen in this broad context, we introduce another mechanism that exploits fluctuations in order to improve properties of the system. Such a mechanism could be of particular interest in economic systems.

  2. Population Growth of the Cladoceran, Daphnia magna: A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Different Algal Food

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Jong-Yun; Kim, Seong-Ki; Chang, Kwang-Hyeon; Kim, Myoung-Chul; La, Geung-Hwan; Joo, Gea-Jae; Jeong, Kwang-Seuk

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we examined the effects of two phytoplankton species, Chlorella vulgaris and Stephanodiscus hantzschii, on growth of the zooplankton Daphnia magna. Our experimental approach utilized stable isotopes to determine the contribution of food algae to offspring characteristics and to the size of adult D. magna individuals. When equal amounts of food algae were provided (in terms of carbon content), the size of individuals, adult zooplankton, and their offspring increased significantly following the provision of S. hantzschii, but not after the provision of C. vulgaris or of a combination of the two species. Offspring size was unaffected when C. vulgaris or a mixture of the two algal species was delivered, whereas providing only S. hantzschii increased the production of larger-sized offspring. Stable isotope analysis revealed significant assimilation of diatom-derived materials that was important for the growth of D. magna populations. Our results confirm the applicability of stable isotope approaches for clarifying the contribution of different food algae and elucidate the importance of food quality for growth of D. magna individuals and populations. Furthermore, we expect that stable isotope analysis will help to further precisely examine the contribution of prey to predators or grazers in controlled experiments. PMID:24752042

  3. Structural Changes and Adaptation of Algal Population under Different Regimens of Toxic Exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ipatova, Valentina; Prokhotskaya, Valeria; Dmitrieva, Aida

    Algae are the principal primary producers of aquatic ecosystems. Modern chemical residues from water pollution (such as pesticides in surface and ground waters, antibiotics, chemical substances of military use, heavy metals, oil, oil products, etc.) are a challenge to survival of microagal populations. Growth of many species was restricted even by micromolar concentrations of such xenobiotics.

  4. Coralline Algal Skeletal δ13C as a Multicentury Recorder of Carbon Dynamics in the Labrador Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng Xiao Hou, Alicia; Halfar, Jochen; Adey, Walter; Wortmann, Ulrich; Williams, Branwen; Chan, Phoebe

    2017-04-01

    The introduction of isotopically light carbon due to the emission of fossil fuel derived CO2 since the beginning of the industrial revolution has decreased δ13C in the atmosphere and oceans (termed the δ13C Suess effect). Approximately 48% of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacturing were taken up by the oceans during the period 1800 to 1994, decreasing the δ13C of the oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon reservoir (DIC). Rates of oceanic carbon uptake vary regionally in response to several factors including ocean circulation, productivity, and water temperature. Despite the enhanced CO2-uptake ability of the North Atlantic Ocean, carbon fluxes of surface ocean waters in high latitude regions are relatively poorly understood compared to tropical oceans. Therefore, century-scale, high-resolution marine climate archives from high latitude regions are needed in order to better understand both preindustrial carbon isotope dynamics as well as carbon isotope changes in response to anthropogenic forcing. Here, we present a 193-year record of δ13C obtained from the annual growth bands of a long-lived calcified coralline alga collected off the coast of central Labrador, near Kingitok Island, Canada (55.3983° N, 59.8467° W) to observe regional changes in carbon isotopes beginning in the preindustrial period. The algal δ13C record demonstrates an overall decreasing trend of -0.006‰/year from 1819 (1.15‰) to 2012 (-0.013‰), with the fastest rate of decrease (-0.032‰/year) occurring from 1960 (1.63‰) to 2012 (-0.013‰). Comparisons of the coralline algal δ13C record to a bivalve δ13C record (r = 0.30, p < 0.00007) and an atmospheric CO2 δ13C record from compiled ice core and direct measurement data (r =0.35, p < 0.00000051) displays a good correspondence of century-scale δ13C trends. The coralline algal record is interpreted as representing a combination of changes in primary productivity, which dominates the signal during the

  5. Flood trends and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  6. Phytoplankton dynamics with a special emphasis on harmful algal blooms in the Mar Piccolo of Taranto (Ionian Sea, Italy).

    PubMed

    Caroppo, Carmela; Cerino, Federica; Auriemma, Rocco; Cibic, Tamara

    2016-07-01

    The response of phytoplankton assemblages to the closure of urban sewage outfalls (USOs) was examined for the Mar Piccolo of Taranto (Mediterranean Sea), a productive semi-enclosed coastal marine ecosystem devoted to shellfish farming. Phytoplankton dynamics were investigated in relation to environmental variables, with a particular emphasis on harmful algal blooms (HABs). Recent analyses evidenced a general reduction of the inorganic nutrient loads, except for nitrates and silicates. Also phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) and abundances were characterized by a decrease of the values, except for the inner area of the basin (second inlet). The phytoplankton composition changed, with nano-sized species, indicators of oligotrophic conditions, becoming dominant over micro-sized species. If the closure of the USOs affected phytoplankton dynamics, however, it did not preserve the Mar Piccolo from HABs and anoxia crises. About 25 harmful species have been detected throughout the years, such as the potentially domoic acid producers Pseudo-nitzschia cf. galaxiae and P seudo-nitzschia cf. multistriata, identified for the first time in these waters. The presence of HABs represents a threat for human health and aquaculture. Urgent initiatives are needed to improve the communication with authorities responsible for environmental protection, economic development, and public health for a sustainable mussel culture in the Mar Piccolo.

  7. A model approach to the population dynamics of the rotifer Brachionus rubens in two-stage chemostat culture.

    PubMed

    Rothhaupt, Karl Otto

    1985-01-01

    A model, based on energy-flow considerations, is presented which describes the population dynamics of Brachionus rubens in the second stage of a two-stage algalrotifer chemostat. The rotifers are foodlimited with substrate-inhibition occurring at high algal densities. The model shows two stable states: steady state with constant density of rotifers and washout of the animals. Which one of the stable states is reached depends on the initial conditions.Empirical data are in general agreement with the model. Deviations may be explained by the fact that the data underlying the model calculations are based on a different food alga (Chlorella vulgaris) than the one used in the experiments (Monoraphidium minutum).The observed population growth rate reaches a maximum value of 0.84 (1/day) at algal densities of 3-4. 10(6) cells/ml. It decreases at higher algal densities. The egg ratio is related linearily to algal density without being reduced at high algal densities.

  8. Temperature dependence of an estuarine harmful algal bloom: Resolving interannual variability in bloom dynamics using a degree day approach.

    PubMed

    Ralston, David K; Keafer, Bruce A; Brosnahan, Michael L; Anderson, Donald M

    2014-01-01

    Observations of harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense in an estuary over multiple years were used to assess drivers of their spatial and temporal variability. Nauset Estuary on Cape Cod, Massachusetts has a recurrent, self-seeding A. fundyense population that produces paralytic shellfish poisoning toxins and leads to nearly annual closure to shellfishing. Weekly surveys of the entire estuary were made in 3 of 4 consecutive years, with surveys of a subembayment during the intervening year. Major A. fundyense blooms were observed all 4 years, with maximum concentrations >10(6) cells L(-1). Concentrations were greatest in three salt ponds at the distal edges of the estuary. The bloom timing varied among the salt ponds and among years, although the blooms had similar durations and maximum cell concentrations. Nutrient concentrations did not correlate with the growth of the bloom, but differences in water temperature among years and ponds were significant. Net growth rates inferred from the surveys were similar to those from laboratory experiments, and increased linearly with temperature. A growing degree day calculation was used to account for effects of interannual variability and spatial gradients in water temperature on population development. The approach collapsed variability in the timing of bloom onset, development, and termination across years and among ponds, suggesting that this relatively simple metric could be used as an early-warning indicator for HABs in Nauset and similar areas with localized, self-seeding blooms.

  9. Temperature dependence of an estuarine harmful algal bloom: Resolving interannual variability in bloom dynamics using a degree day approach

    PubMed Central

    Ralston, David K.; Keafer, Bruce A.; Brosnahan, Michael L.; Anderson, Donald M.

    2014-01-01

    Observations of harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense in an estuary over multiple years were used to assess drivers of their spatial and temporal variability. Nauset Estuary on Cape Cod, Massachusetts has a recurrent, self-seeding A. fundyense population that produces paralytic shellfish poisoning toxins and leads to nearly annual closure to shellfishing. Weekly surveys of the entire estuary were made in 3 of 4 consecutive years, with surveys of a subembayment during the intervening year. Major A. fundyense blooms were observed all 4 years, with maximum concentrations >106 cells L−1. Concentrations were greatest in three salt ponds at the distal edges of the estuary. The bloom timing varied among the salt ponds and among years, although the blooms had similar durations and maximum cell concentrations. Nutrient concentrations did not correlate with the growth of the bloom, but differences in water temperature among years and ponds were significant. Net growth rates inferred from the surveys were similar to those from laboratory experiments, and increased linearly with temperature. A growing degree day calculation was used to account for effects of interannual variability and spatial gradients in water temperature on population development. The approach collapsed variability in the timing of bloom onset, development, and termination across years and among ponds, suggesting that this relatively simple metric could be used as an early-warning indicator for HABs in Nauset and similar areas with localized, self-seeding blooms. PMID:25419003

  10. Coupling between evolutionary and population dynamics in experimental microbial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2012-02-01

    It has been often been assumed that population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics occur at such different timescales that they are effectively de-coupled. This view has been challenged recently, due to observations of evolutionary changes occurring in short timescales. This has led to a growing interest in understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics of populations. In this context, recent theoretical models have predicted that coupling between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics can have important effects for the evolution and stability of cooperation, and lead to extremely rich and varied dynamics. Here, we report our investigation of the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a cooperative social behavior, sucrose metabolism, in experimental yeast populations. We have devised an experimental strategy to visualize trajectories in the phase space formed by the population size (N) and the fraction of cooperator cells in the population (f). Our measurements confirm a strong coupling between evolutionary and population dynamics, and allowed us to characterize the bifurcation plots. We used this approach to investigate how sudden environmental changes affect the stability and recovery of populations, and therefore the stability of cooperation.

  11. Dynamic energy budget theory and population ecology: lessons from Daphnia

    PubMed Central

    Nisbet, Roger M.; McCauley, Edward; Johnson, Leah R.

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory offers a perspective on population ecology whose starting point is energy utilization by, and homeostasis within, individual organisms. It is natural to ask what it adds to the existing large body of individual-based ecological theory. We approach this question pragmatically—through detailed study of the individual physiology and population dynamics of the zooplankter Daphnia and its algal food. Standard DEB theory uses several state variables to characterize the state of an individual organism, thereby making the transition to population dynamics technically challenging, while ecologists demand maximally simple models that can be used in multi-scale modelling. We demonstrate that simpler representations of individual bioenergetics with a single state variable (size), and two life stages (juveniles and adults), contain sufficient detail on mass and energy budgets to yield good fits to data on growth, maturation and reproduction of individual Daphnia in response to food availability. The same simple representations of bioenergetics describe some features of Daphnia mortality, including enhanced mortality at low food that is not explicitly incorporated in the standard DEB model. Size-structured, population models incorporating this additional mortality component resolve some long-standing questions on stability and population cycles in Daphnia. We conclude that a bioenergetic model serving solely as a ‘regression’ connecting organismal performance to the history of its environment can rest on simpler representations than those of standard DEB. But there are associated costs with such pragmatism, notably loss of connection to theory describing interspecific variation in physiological rates. The latter is an important issue, as the type of detailed study reported here can only be performed for a handful of species. PMID:20921052

  12. Combined effects of heavy metal (Hg) concentration and algal (Chlorella vulgaris) food density on the population growth of Brachionus calyciflorus (Rotifera: Brachionidae).

    PubMed

    Perez, Teresa Ramirez; Sarma, S S S

    2008-03-01

    The combined effects of two food levels (0.5 x 10(6) and 1.5 x 10(6) cells ml(-1) of Chlorella vulgaris) and five concentrations (0, 0.000625, 0.00125, 0.0025, 0.005 mg l(-1) of HgCl2) of mercury on the population growth of the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus was evaluated. The growth experiments were conducted for 18 days at 23+/-1 degrees C under continuous fluorescent illumination. For each food level - heavy metal combination, we maintained 3 replicates. Our data showed that regardless of food level, increase in the heavy metal concentration in the medium resulted in decreased population growth of B. calyciflorus. At any given heavy metal concentration, B. calyciflorus grown under higher food levels had higher population abundance. The rate of population increase was significantly influenced by both the heavy metal concentration and the algal level. The highest population growth rate (0.435+/-0.003 per day) was observed in controls at 1.5 x 10(6) cells ml(-1). The results of this study were discussed in relation to the protective role of algal density against heavy metal toxicity.

  13. Population Dynamics of Viral Inactivation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freeman, Krista; Li, Dong; Behrens, Manja; Streletzky, Kiril; Olsson, Ulf; Evilevitch, Alex

    We have investigated the population dynamics of viral inactivation in vitrousing time-resolved cryo electron microscopy combined with light and X-ray scattering techniques. Using bacteriophage λ as a model system for pressurized double-stranded DNA viruses, we found that virions incubated with their cell receptor eject their genome in a stochastic triggering process. The triggering of DNA ejection occurs in a non synchronized manner after the receptor addition, resulting in an exponential decay of the number of genome-filled viruses with time. We have explored the characteristic time constant of this triggering process at different temperatures, salt conditions, and packaged genome lengths. Furthermore, using the temperature dependence we determined an activation energy for DNA ejections. The dependences of the time constant and activation energy on internal DNA pressure, affected by salt conditions and encapsidated genome length, suggest that the triggering process is directly dependent on the conformational state of the encapsidated DNA. The results of this work provide insight into how the in vivo kinetics of the spread of viral infection are influenced by intra- and extra cellular environmental conditions. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE-1252522.

  14. Population dynamics of obligate cooperators

    PubMed Central

    Courchamp, F.; Grenfell, B.; Clutton-Brock, T.

    1999-01-01

    Obligate cooperative breeding species demonstrate a high rate of group extinction, which may be due to the existence of a critical number of helpers below which the group cannot subsist. Through a simple model, we study the population dynamics of obligate cooperative breeding species, taking into account the existence of a lower threshold below which the instantaneous growth rate becomes negative. The model successively incorporates (i) a distinction between species that need helpers for reproduction, survival or both, (ii) the existence of a migration rate accounting for dispersal, and (iii) stochastic mortality to simulate the effects of random catastrophic events. Our results suggest that the need for a minimum number of helpers increases the risk of extinction for obligate cooperative breeding species. The constraint imposed by this threshold is higher when helpers are needed for reproduction only or for both reproduction and survival. By driving them below this lower threshold, stochastic mortality of lower amplitude and/or lower frequency than for non-cooperative breeders may be sufficient to cause the extinction of obligate cooperative breeding groups. Migration may have a buffering effect only for groups where immigration is higher than emigration; otherwise (when immigrants from nearby groups are not available) it lowers the difference between actual group size and critical threshold, thereby constituting a higher constraint.

  15. Effects of surrounding land use and water depth on seagrass dynamics relative to a catastrophic algal bloom.

    PubMed

    Breininger, David R; Breininger, Robert D; Hall, Carlton R

    2017-02-01

    Seagrasses are the foundation of many coastal ecosystems and are in global decline because of anthropogenic impacts. For the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, U.S.A.), we developed competing multistate statistical models to quantify how environmental factors (surrounding land use, water depth, and time [year]) influenced the variability of seagrass state dynamics from 2003 to 2014 while accounting for time-specific detection probabilities that quantified our ability to determine seagrass state at particular locations and times. We classified seagrass states (presence or absence) at 764 points with geographic information system maps for years when seagrass maps were available and with aerial photographs when seagrass maps were not available. We used 4 categories (all conservation, mostly conservation, mostly urban, urban) to describe surrounding land use within sections of lagoonal waters, usually demarcated by land features that constricted these waters. The best models predicted that surrounding land use, depth, and year would affect transition and detection probabilities. Sections of the lagoon bordered by urban areas had the least stable seagrass beds and lowest detection probabilities, especially after a catastrophic seagrass die-off linked to an algal bloom. Sections of the lagoon bordered by conservation lands had the most stable seagrass beds, which supports watershed conservation efforts. Our results show that a multistate approach can empirically estimate state-transition probabilities as functions of environmental factors while accounting for state-dependent differences in seagrass detection probabilities as part of the overall statistical inference procedure. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Macroinvertebrate colonization dynamics on artificial substrates along an algal resource gradient

    Treesearch

    A. Braccia; S.L. Eggert; N. King

    2014-01-01

    Riparian canopy removal and land use may introduce multiple stressors that can alter food and habitat for stream organisms, but the influence of these alterations on macroinvertebrate colonization dynamics is less well known. A field study involving the simultaneous placement and removal of artificial substrates was performed to examine how macroinvertebrate...

  17. Bayesian Modeling of the Effects of Extreme Flooding and the Grazer Community on Algal Biomass Dynamics in a Monsoonal Taiwan Stream.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Ming-Chih; Kuo, Mei-Hwa; Chang, Hao-Yen; Lin, Hsing-Juh

    2016-08-01

    The effects of grazing and climate change on primary production have been studied widely, but seldom with mechanistic models. We used a Bayesian model to examine the effects of extreme weather and the invertebrate grazer community on epilithic algal biomass dynamics over 10 years (from January 2004 to August 2013). Algal biomass and the invertebrate grazer community were monitored in the upstream drainage of the Dajia River in Taiwan, where extreme floods have been becoming more frequent. The biomass of epilithic algae changed, both seasonally and annually, and extreme flooding changed the growth and resistance to flow detachment of the algae. Invertebrate grazing pressure changes with the structure of the invertebrate grazer community, which, in turn, is affected by the flow regime. Invertebrate grazer community structure and extreme flooding both affected the dynamics of epilithic algae, but in different ways. Awareness of the interactions between algal communities and grazers/abiotic factors can help with the design of future studies and could facilitate the development of management programs for stream ecosystems.

  18. Leading edge gypsy moth population dynamics

    Treesearch

    M. R. Carter; F. W. Ravlin; M. L. McManus

    1991-01-01

    Leading edge gypsy moth populations have been the focus of several intervention programs (MDIPM, AIPM). Knowledge of gypsy moth population dynamics in leading edge area is crucial for effective management. Populations in these areas tend to reach outbreak levels (noticeable defoliation) within three to four years after egg masses are first detected. Pheromone traps...

  19. Simulation Exercises in Population Dynamics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Laurence L.; Falk, Carol J.

    1986-01-01

    Describes a computer simulation providing population change profiles at 5-year intervals for 100 years, projecting natural rate of increase and total population, per capita gross national product, energy consumption, age-specific fertility rates, and survival ratios. Data sources for the simulation, sample printed output, and learning activities…

  20. Mapping Coral-Algal Dynamics in a Seasonal Upwelling Area Using Spaceborne High Resolution Sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pauly, Klaas; Goossens, Rudi; De Clerck, Olivier

    2010-12-01

    PROBA/CHRIS is one of the first satellite sensors to offer both high spatial and spectral resolutions. We explored the potential of this sensor to map the dynamics of seaweed and coral cover in an area influenced by seasonal upwelling in the Arabian Sea. Quantitative field assessments coincided with image acquisitions. After removal of sensor noise and atmospheric effects, maximum likelihood supervised classification yielded a tau accuracy of 64.09 for the summer monsoon dataset. Clearer waters and a lower spatial heterogeneity in the winter monsoon dataset resulted in a tau accuracy of 71.45. Post-classification comparison and vegetation indices illustrated the conspicuous turnover from dense macroalgal stands covering nearly all coral communities during summer to bare rock or turf communities during winter, with coral becoming the predominant bottom type. These results were further analysed using a novel maximum entropy sub-pixel approach and were shown to consistently outperform results from Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery.

  1. The color of mass culture: spectral characteristics of a shallow water column through shade-limited algal growth dynamics(1).

    PubMed

    Hewes, Christopher D

    2016-04-01

    It is envisioned that mass algal cultivation for commercial biofuels production will entail the use of large raceway pond systems, which typically have shade-limited photosynthetic growth within depths of 20-30 cm. The attenuation of light and spectral qualities of red, green, and blue wavelengths in a 20-cm water column as a function of Chl-a concentration during exponential and linear phases of growth dynamics for the marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana was examined under laboratory conditions. While photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) was in excess throughout the water column during the phase of exponential growth, PAR became rate limiting differently for red, green, and blue wavelengths during the phase of linear growth. The transition from exponential to linear growth occurred at 1-2 mg Chl-a · L-1, whereby a scalar ~5 μmol photons · m-2 · s-1 at 20-cm depth was found to occur as would be anticipated having the compensation point for where rates of photosynthesis and respiration are equal. During the phase of linear growth, red wavelengths became increasingly dominant at depth as Chl-a concentrations increased, being contrary to the optical conditions for those natural bodies of water that forced the evolution of phytoplankton photosynthesis. It is hypothesized this dramatic difference in water column optics between natural and synthetic environments could influence a variety of biological reactions, importantly non-photochemical quenching capacities, which could negatively impact crop yield.

  2. Sequence of the Gonium pectorale Mating Locus Reveals a Complex and Dynamic History of Changes in Volvocine Algal Mating Haplotypes

    PubMed Central

    Hamaji, Takashi; Mogi, Yuko; Ferris, Patrick J.; Mori, Toshiyuki; Miyagishima, Shinya; Kabeya, Yukihiro; Nishimura, Yoshiki; Toyoda, Atsushi; Noguchi, Hideki; Fujiyama, Asao; Olson, Bradley J. S. C.; Marriage, Tara N.; Nishii, Ichiro; Umen, James G.; Nozaki, Hisayoshi

    2016-01-01

    Sex-determining regions (SDRs) or mating-type (MT) loci in two sequenced volvocine algal species, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii and Volvox carteri, exhibit major differences in size, structure, gene content, and gametolog differentiation. Understanding the origin of these differences requires investigation of MT loci from related species. Here, we determined the sequences of the minus and plus MT haplotypes of the isogamous 16-celled volvocine alga, Gonium pectorale, which is more closely related to the multicellular V. carteri than to C. reinhardtii. Compared to C. reinhardtii MT, G. pectorale MT is moderately larger in size, and has a less complex structure, with only two major syntenic blocs of collinear gametologs. However, the gametolog content of G. pectorale MT has more overlap with that of V. carteri MT than with C. reinhardtii MT, while the allelic divergence between gametologs in G. pectorale is even lower than that in C. reinhardtii. Three key sex-related genes are conserved in G. pectorale MT: GpMID and GpMTD1 in MT–, and GpFUS1 in MT+. GpFUS1 protein exhibited specific localization at the plus-gametic mating structure, indicating a conserved function in fertilization. Our results suggest that the G. pectorale–V. carteri common ancestral MT experienced at least one major reformation after the split from C. reinhardtii, and that the V. carteri ancestral MT underwent a subsequent expansion and loss of recombination after the divergence from G. pectorale. These data begin to polarize important changes that occurred in volvocine MT loci, and highlight the potential for discontinuous and dynamic evolution in SDRs. PMID:26921294

  3. Encroaching forests decouple alpine butterfly population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

    2007-08-21

    Over the past 50 years, the rising tree line along Jumpingpound Ridge in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada, has reduced the area of alpine meadows and isolated populations that reside within them. By analyzing an 11-year data set of butterfly population sizes for 17 subpopulations along the ridge, we show that forest habitat separating alpine meadows decouples the dynamics of populations of the alpine butterfly Parnassius smintheus. Although the distance between populations is often negatively correlated with synchrony of dynamics, here we show that distance through forest, not Euclidean distance, determines the degree of synchrony. This effect is consistent with previous results demonstrating that encroaching forest reduces dispersal among populations and reduces gene flow. Decoupling dynamics produces more smaller independent populations, each with greater risk of local extinction, but decoupling may produce a lower risk of regional extinction in this capricious environment.

  4. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  5. Dynamic Evolution of the Chloroplast Genome in the Green Algal Classes Pedinophyceae and Trebouxiophyceae

    PubMed Central

    Turmel, Monique; Otis, Christian; Lemieux, Claude

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies of trebouxiophycean chloroplast genomes revealed little information regarding the evolutionary dynamics of this genome because taxon sampling was too sparse and the relationships between the sampled taxa were unknown. We recently sequenced the chloroplast genomes of 27 trebouxiophycean and 2 pedinophycean green algae to resolve the relationships among the main lineages recognized for the Trebouxiophyceae. These taxa and the previously sampled members of the Pedinophyceae and Trebouxiophyceae are included in the comparative chloroplast genome analysis we report here. The 38 genomes examined display considerable variability at all levels, except gene content. Our results highlight the high propensity of the rDNA-containing large inverted repeat (IR) to vary in size, gene content and gene order as well as the repeated losses it experienced during trebouxiophycean evolution. Of the seven predicted IR losses, one event demarcates a superclade of 11 taxa representing 5 late-diverging lineages. IR expansions/contractions account not only for changes in gene content in this region but also for changes in gene order and gene duplications. Inversions also led to gene rearrangements within the IR, including the reversal or disruption of the rDNA operon in some lineages. Most of the 20 IR-less genomes are more rearranged compared with their IR-containing homologs and tend to show an accelerated rate of sequence evolution. In the IR-less superclade, several ancestral operons were disrupted, a few genes were fragmented, and a subgroup of taxa features a G+C-biased nucleotide composition. Our analyses also unveiled putative cases of gene acquisitions through horizontal transfer. PMID:26139832

  6. Combined effect of concentrations of algal food (Chlorella vulgaris) and salt (sodium chloride) on the population growth of Brachionus calyciflorus and Brachionus patulus (Rotifera).

    PubMed

    Peredo-Alvarez, Víctor M; Sarma, S S; Nandini, S

    2003-06-01

    Salinity is an important variable influencing the density and diversity of rotifers. Studies on salt tolerance of rotifers have so far concentrated on euryhaline species while very little information is available on non-euryhaline taxa. In the present work, we have evaluated the combined effects of Chlorella vulgaris and sodium chloride on the population growth of two freshwater rotifers B. calyciflorus and B. patulus. A 24 hr acute tolerance test using NaCl revealed that B. calyciflorus was more resistant (LC50 = 3.75 +/- 0.04 g l-1) than B. patulus (2.14 +/- 0.09 g l-1). The maximal population density (mean +/- standard error) for B. calyciflorus in the control at 4.5 x 10(6) cells ml-1 (algal level) was 80 +/- 5 ind. ml-1, which was nearly a fifth of the one for B. patulus (397 +/- 7 ind. ml-1) under comparable conditions. Data on population growth revealed that regardless of salt concentration, the density of B. calyciflorus increased with increasing food levels, while for B. patulus, this trend was evident only in the controls. Regardless of salt concentration and algal food level, the day of maximal population density was lower (4 +/- 0.5 days) for B. calyciflorus than for B. patulus (11 +/- 1 day). The highest rates of population increase (r values) for B. calyciflorus and B. patulus were 0.429 +/- 0.012 and 0.367 +/- 0.004, respectively, recorded at 4.5 x 10(6) cells ml-1 of Chlorella in the controls. The protective role of algae in reducing the effect of salt stress was more evident in B. calyciflorus than B. patulus.

  7. Population dynamics under the Laplace assumption.

    PubMed

    Marreiros, André C; Kiebel, Stefan J; Daunizeau, Jean; Harrison, Lee M; Friston, Karl J

    2009-02-01

    In this paper, we describe a generic approach to modelling dynamics in neuronal populations. This approach models a full density on the states of neuronal populations but finesses this high-dimensional problem by re-formulating density dynamics in terms of ordinary differential equations on the sufficient statistics of the densities considered (c.f., the method of moments). The particular form for the population density we adopt is a Gaussian density (c.f., the Laplace assumption). This means population dynamics are described by equations governing the evolution of the population's mean and covariance. We derive these equations from the Fokker-Planck formalism and illustrate their application to a conductance-based model of neuronal exchanges. One interesting aspect of this formulation is that we can uncouple the mean and covariance to furnish a neural-mass model, which rests only on the populations mean. This enables us to compare equivalent mean-field and neural-mass models of the same populations and evaluate, quantitatively, the contribution of population variance to the expected dynamics. The mean-field model presented here will form the basis of a dynamic causal model of observed electromagnetic signals in future work.

  8. Algal functional annotation tool

    SciTech Connect

    2012-07-12

    Abstract BACKGROUND: Progress in genome sequencing is proceeding at an exponential pace, and several new algal genomes are becoming available every year. One of the challenges facing the community is the association of protein sequences encoded in the genomes with biological function. While most genome assembly projects generate annotations for predicted protein sequences, they are usually limited and integrate functional terms from a limited number of databases. Another challenge is the use of annotations to interpret large lists of 'interesting' genes generated by genome-scale datasets. Previously, these gene lists had to be analyzed across several independent biological databases, often on a gene-by-gene basis. In contrast, several annotation databases, such as DAVID, integrate data from multiple functional databases and reveal underlying biological themes of large gene lists. While several such databases have been constructed for animals, none is currently available for the study of algae. Due to renewed interest in algae as potential sources of biofuels and the emergence of multiple algal genome sequences, a significant need has arisen for such a database to process the growing compendiums of algal genomic data. DESCRIPTION: The Algal Functional Annotation Tool is a web-based comprehensive analysis suite integrating annotation data from several pathway, ontology, and protein family databases. The current version provides annotation for the model alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, and in the future will include additional genomes. The site allows users to interpret large gene lists by identifying associated functional terms, and their enrichment. Additionally, expression data for several experimental conditions were compiled and analyzed to provide an expression-based enrichment search. A tool to search for functionally-related genes based on gene expression across these conditions is also provided. Other features include dynamic visualization of genes on KEGG

  9. Population dynamics and rural poverty.

    PubMed

    Fong, M S

    1985-01-01

    An overview of the relationship between demographic factors and rural poverty in developing countries is presented. The author examines both the micro- and macro-level perspectives of this relationship and the determinants and consequences of population growth. The author notes the prospects for a rapid increase in the rural labor force and considers its implications for the agricultural production structure and the need for institutional change. Consideration is also given to the continuing demand for high fertility at the family level and the role of infant and child mortality in the poverty cycle. "The paper concludes by drawing attention to the need for developing the mechanism for reconciliation of social and individual optima with respect to family size and population growth." The need for rural development projects that take demographic factors into account is stressed as is the need for effective population programs. (summary in FRE, ITA)

  10. Retrieval of pigment concentrations and size structure of algal populations from their absorption spectra using multilayered perceptrons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bricaud, Annick; Mejia, Carlos; Blondeau-Patissier, David; Claustre, Hervé; Crepon, Michel; Thiria, Sylvie

    2007-03-01

    Spectral absorption coefficients of phytoplankton can now be derived, under some assumptions, from hyperspectral ocean color measurements and thus become accessible from space. In this study, multilayer perceptrons have been developed to retrieve information on the pigment composition and size structure of phytoplankton from these absorption spectra. The retrieved variables are the main pigment groups (chlorophylls a, b, c, and photosynthetic and nonphotosynthetic carotenoids) and the relative contributions of three algal size classes (pico-, nano-, and microphytoplankton) to total chlorophyll a. The networks have been trained, tested, and validated using more than 3700 simultaneous absorption and pigment measurements collected in the world ocean. Among pigment groups, chlorophyll a is the most accurately retrieved (average relative errors of 17% and 16% for the test and validation data subsets, respectively), while the poorest performances are found for chlorophyll b (average relative errors of 51% and 40%). Relative contributions of algal size classes to total chlorophyll a are retrieved with average relative errors of 19% to 33% for the test subset and of 18% to 47% for the validation subset. The performances obtained for the validation data, showing no strong degradation with respect to test data, suggest that these neural networks might be operated with similar performances for a large variety of marine areas.

  11. Differential Equations via Population Dynamics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sofo, Anthony

    1981-01-01

    Some single species and two species interactions in population models are presented to show how credible examples can be used to teach an underlying, common mathematical structure within apparently different concepts. The models examined consist of differential equations, and focus on real-world issues. (MP)

  12. Travelling waves in vole population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranta, Esa; Kaitala, Veijo

    1997-12-01

    Spatial self-organization patterns in population dynamics have been anticipated, but demonstrating their existence requires sampling over long periods of time at a range of sites. Voles cause severe economic damage and are therefore extensively monitored, providing a source of the required data. Using two long-term data sets we now report the existence of travelling waves in vole population numbers.

  13. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Treesearch

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  14. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Treesearch

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  15. Population dynamics with and without selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pȩkalski, Andrzej; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2001-03-01

    A model describing population dynamics is presented. We study the effect of selection pressure and inbreeding on the time evolution of the population and the chances of survival. We find that the selection is in general beneficial, enabling survival of a population whose size is declining. Inbreeding reduces the survival chances since it leads to clustering of individuals. We have also found, in agreement with biological data, that there is a threshold value of the initial size of the population, as well as of the habitat, below which the population will almost certainly become extinct. We present analytical and computer simulation approaches.

  16. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  17. [Development and testing of theories of population dynamics]. First annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Murdoch, W.W.; Bence, J.R.; McCauley, E.; Nisbet, R.M.

    1990-03-15

    We report new analyses to test competing models of the Daphnia/algal interaction. Our model is good at predicting equilibrium algal densities, and if our new insights can account for stability in this system across a wide range of natural environments, this may contribute to understanding predator-prey dynamics in general.

  18. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  19. [Research advances in population dynamics of Orchidaceae].

    PubMed

    Liu, Qiang; Yin, Shou-hua; Lan, Qin-ying

    2010-11-01

    In the study of population dynamics of Orchidaceae, demographic analysis can make us better understand the spatiotemporal variation of plant individuals, the core of the population dynamics study. Nevertheless, many orchid species have an epiphytic or lithophytic habit, which predisposes them to a discrete or patchy distribution. In this case, metapopulation study is a good method to judge the protective scale of the population by analyzing the extent of gene flow among patches. In addition, long-term observation is needed to obtain reliable information on the life history and population dynamics of Orchidaceae, and to understand the relationships between the spatiotemporal variation and functioning of orchid population in certain environmental conditions. As for the short-term study, it's essential for a better understanding of the relationships between the structurally dependent plants and the communities in which they are fund. This paper reviewed the research advances in the population dynamics of Orchidaceae from the viewpoints of the population ecology and ecological characteristics of Orchidaceae.

  20. Algal biofuels.

    PubMed

    Razeghifard, Reza

    2013-11-01

    The world is facing energy crisis and environmental issues due to the depletion of fossil fuels and increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Growing microalgae can contribute to practical solutions for these global problems because they can harvest solar energy and capture CO2 by converting it into biofuel using photosynthesis. Microalgae are robust organisms capable of rapid growth under a variety of conditions including in open ponds or closed photobioreactors. Their reduced biomass compounds can be used as the feedstock for mass production of a variety of biofuels. As another advantage, their ability to accumulate or secrete biofuels can be controlled by changing their growth conditions or metabolic engineering. This review is aimed to highlight different forms of biofuels produced by microalgae and the approaches taken to improve their biofuel productivity. The costs for industrial-scale production of algal biofuels in open ponds or closed photobioreactors are analyzed. Different strategies for photoproduction of hydrogen by the hydrogenase enzyme of green algae are discussed. Algae are also good sources of biodiesel since some species can make large quantities of lipids as their biomass. The lipid contents for some of the best oil-producing strains of algae in optimized growth conditions are reviewed. The potential of microalgae for producing petroleum related chemicals or ready-make fuels such as bioethanol, triterpenic hydrocarbons, isobutyraldehyde, isobutanol, and isoprene from their biomass are also presented.

  1. Hidden process models for animal population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Newman, K B; Buckland, S T; Lindley, S T; Thomas, L; Fernández, C

    2006-02-01

    Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer-intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha).

  2. Water-quality models to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota, 2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Erik A.; Kiesling, Richard L.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2017-07-20

    Fish habitat can degrade in many lakes due to summer blue-green algal blooms. Predictive models are needed to better manage and mitigate loss of fish habitat due to these changes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water-quality models for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota—Madison Lake and Pearl Lake, which are part of Minnesota’s sentinel lakes monitoring program—to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability of these two lakes under recent (2014) meteorological conditions. The interaction of basin processes to these two lakes, through the delivery of nutrient loads, were simulated using CE-QUAL-W2, a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model that predicts distribution of temperature and oxygen from interactions between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics.The CE-QUAL-W2 models successfully predicted water temperature and dissolved oxygen on the basis of the two metrics of mean absolute error and root mean square error. For Madison Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.53 and 0.68 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons; for Pearl Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.71 and 0.95 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons. Temperature and dissolved oxygen were key metrics for calibration targets. These calibrated lake models also simulated algal community dynamics and water quality. The model simulations presented potential explanations for persistently large total phosphorus concentrations in Madison Lake, key differences in nutrient concentrations between these lakes, and summer blue-green algal bloom persistence.Fish habitat suitability simulations for cool-water and warm-water fish indicated that, in general, both lakes contained a large

  3. Two complementary paradigms for analysing population dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Krebs, Charles J

    2002-01-01

    To understand why population growth rate is sometimes positive and sometimes negative, ecologists have adopted two main approaches. The most common approach is through the density paradigm by plotting population growth rate against population density. The second approach is through the mechanistic paradigm by plotting population growth rate against the relevant ecological processes affecting the population. The density paradigm is applied a posteriori, works sometimes but not always and is remarkably useless in solving management problems or in providing an understanding of why populations change in size. The mechanistic paradigm investigates the factors that supposedly drive density changes and is identical to Caughley's declining population paradigm of conservation biology. The assumption that we can uncover invariant relationships between population growth rate and some other variables is an article of faith. Numerous commercial fishery applications have failed to find the invariant relationships between stock and recruitment that are predicted by the density paradigm. Environmental variation is the rule, and non-equilibrial dynamics should force us to look for the mechanisms of population change. If multiple factors determine changes in population density, there can be no predictability in either of these paradigms and we will become environmental historians rather than scientists with useful generalizations for the population problems of this century. Defining our questions clearly and adopting an experimental approach with crisp alternative hypotheses and adequate controls will be essential to building useful generalizations for solving the practical problems of population management in fisheries, wildlife and conservation. PMID:12396513

  4. Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2012-01-01

    The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

  5. 40 CFR 797.1050 - Algal acute toxicity test.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...) Algistatic means having the property of inhibiting algal growth. (3) ECx means the experimentally derived chemical concentration that is calculated to effect X percent of the test criterion. (4) Growth means a relative measure of the viability of an algal population based on the number and/or weight of algal cells...

  6. 40 CFR 797.1050 - Algal acute toxicity test.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...) Algistatic means having the property of inhibiting algal growth. (3) ECx means the experimentally derived chemical concentration that is calculated to effect X percent of the test criterion. (4) Growth means a relative measure of the viability of an algal population based on the number and/or weight of algal cells...

  7. 40 CFR 797.1050 - Algal acute toxicity test.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...) Algistatic means having the property of inhibiting algal growth. (3) ECx means the experimentally derived chemical concentration that is calculated to effect X percent of the test criterion. (4) Growth means a relative measure of the viability of an algal population based on the number and/or weight of algal cells...

  8. 40 CFR 797.1050 - Algal acute toxicity test.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...) Algistatic means having the property of inhibiting algal growth. (3) ECx means the experimentally derived chemical concentration that is calculated to effect X percent of the test criterion. (4) Growth means a relative measure of the viability of an algal population based on the number and/or weight of algal cells...

  9. 40 CFR 797.1050 - Algal acute toxicity test.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...) Algistatic means having the property of inhibiting algal growth. (3) ECx means the experimentally derived chemical concentration that is calculated to effect X percent of the test criterion. (4) Growth means a relative measure of the viability of an algal population based on the number and/or weight of algal cells...

  10. Detection, Diversity, and Population Dynamics of Waterborne Phytophthora ramorum Populations.

    PubMed

    Eyre, C A; Garbelotto, M

    2015-01-01

    Sudden oak death, the tree disease caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has significant environmental and economic impacts on natural forests on the U.S. west coast, plantations in the United Kingdom, and in the worldwide nursery trade. Stream baiting is vital for monitoring and early detection of the pathogen in high-risk areas and is performed routinely; however, little is known about the nature of water-borne P. ramorum populations. Two drainages in an infested California forest were monitored intensively using stream-baiting for 2 years between 2009 and 2011. Pathogen presence was determined both by isolation and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from symptomatic bait leaves. Isolates were analyzed using simple sequence repeats to study population dynamics and genetic structure through time. Isolation was successful primarily only during spring conditions, while PCR extended the period of pathogen detection to most of the year. Water populations were extremely diverse, and changed between seasons and years. A few abundant genotypes dominated the water during conditions considered optimal for aerial populations, and matched those dominant in aerial populations. Temporal patterns of genotypic diversification and evenness were identical among aerial, soil, and water populations, indicating that all three substrates are part of the same epidemiological cycle, strongly influenced by rainfall and sporulation on leaves. However, there was structuring between substrates, likely arising due to reduced selection pressure in the water. Additionally, water populations showed wholesale mixing of genotypes without the evident spatial autocorrelation present in leaf and soil populations.

  11. Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

    2016-10-01

    Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

  12. Animal population dynamics: Identification of critical components

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Pikitch, E.K.

    1989-01-01

    There is a growing interest in the use of population dynamics models in environmental risk assessment and the promulgation of environmental regulatory policies. Unfortunately, because of species and areal differences in the physical and biotic influences on population dynamics, such models must almost inevitably be both complex and species- or site-specific. Given the emormous variety of species and sites of potential concern, this fact presents a problem; it simply is not possible to construct models for all species and circumstances. Therefore, it is useful, before building predictive population models, to discover what input parameters are of critical importance to the desired output. This information should enable the construction of simpler and more generalizable models. As a first step, it is useful to consider population models as composed to two, partly separable classes, one comprising the purely mechanical descriptors of dynamics from given demographic parameter values, and the other describing the modulation of the demographic parameters by environmental factors (changes in physical environment, species interactions, pathogens, xenobiotic chemicals). This division permits sensitivity analyses to be run on the first of these classes, providing guidance for subsequent model simplification. We here apply such a sensitivity analysis to network models of mammalian and avian population dynamics.

  13. Mid-term coral-algal dynamics and conservation status of a Gorgona Island (Tropical Eastern Pacific) coral reef.

    PubMed

    Zapata, Fernando A; Rodríguez-Ramírez, Alberto; Caro-Zambrano, Carlos; Garzón-Ferreira, Jaime

    2010-05-01

    Colombian coral reefs, as other reefs worldwide, have deteriorated significantly during the last few decades due to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The National Monitoring System for Coral Reefs in Colombia (SIMAC) was established in 1998 to provide long-term data bases to assess the changes of Colombian coral reefs against perturbations and to identify the factors responsible for their decline or recovery. On the Pacific coast, data on coral and algal cover have been collected yearly during seven consecutive years (1998-2004) from 20 permanent transects in two sites at La Azufrada reef, Gorgona Island. Overall, coral cover was high (55.1%-65.7%) and algal cover low (28.8%-37.5%) and both exhibited significant changes among years, most notably on shallow areas. Differences between sites in both coral and algal cover were present since the study began and may be explained by differences in sedimentation stress derived from soil runoff. Differences between depths most likely stem from the effects of low tidal sub-aerial exposures. Particularly intense sub-aerial exposures occurred repeatedly during January-March, 2001 and accounted for a decrease in coral and an increase in algal cover on shallow depths observed later that year. Additionally, the shallow area on the Northern site seems to be negatively affected by the combined effect of sedimentation and low tidal exposure. However, a decrease in coral cover and an increase of algal cover since 2001 on deep areas at both sites remain unexplained. Comparisons with previous studies suggest that the reef at La Azufrada has been more resilient than other reefs in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (TEP), recovering pre-disturbance (1979) levels of coral cover within a 10 year period after the 1982-83 El Niño, which caused 85% mortality. Furthermore, the effects of the 1997-98 El Niño, indicated by the difference in overall live coral cover between 1998 and 1999, were minor (< 6% reduction). Despite recurrent

  14. Monitoring coyote population dynamics by genotyping faeces.

    PubMed

    Prugh, L R; Ritland, C E; Arthur, S M; Krebs, C J

    2005-04-01

    Reliable population estimates are necessary for effective conservation and management, and faecal genotyping has been used successfully to estimate the population size of several elusive mammalian species. Information such as changes in population size over time and survival rates, however, are often more useful for conservation biology than single population estimates. We evaluated the use of faecal genotyping as a tool for monitoring long-term population dynamics, using coyotes (Canis latrans) in the Alaska Range as a case study. We obtained 544 genotypes from 56 coyotes over 3 years (2000-2002). Tissue samples from all 15 radio-collared coyotes in our study area had > or = 1 matching faecal genotypes. We used flexible maximum-likelihood models to study coyote population dynamics, and we tested model performance against radio telemetry data. The staple prey of coyotes, snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), dramatically declined during this study, and the coyote population declined nearly two-fold with a 1(1/2)-year time lag. Survival rates declined the year after hares crashed but recovered the following year. We conclude that long-term monitoring of elusive species using faecal genotyping is feasible and can provide data that are useful for wildlife conservation and management. We highlight some drawbacks of standard open-population models, such as low precision and the requirement of discrete sampling intervals, and we suggest that the development of open models designed for continuously collected data would enhance the utility of faecal genotyping as a monitoring tool.

  15. Irruptive population dynamics in Yellowstone pronghorn.

    PubMed

    White, P J; Bruggeman, Jason E; Garrott, Robert A

    2007-09-01

    Irruptive population dynamics appear to be widespread in large herbivore populations, but there are few empirical examples from long time series with small measurement error and minimal harvests. We analyzed an 89-year time series of counts and known removals for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in Yellowstone National Park of the western United States during 1918-2006 using a suite of density-dependent, density-independent, and irruptive models to determine if the population exhibited irruptive dynamics. Information-theoretic model comparison techniques strongly supported irruptive population dynamics (Leopold model) and density dependence during 1918-1946, with the growth rate slowing after counts exceeded 600 animals. Concerns about sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) degradation led to removals of >1100 pronghorn during 1947-1966, and counts decreased from approximately 700 to 150. The best models for this period (Gompertz, Ricker) suggested that culls replaced intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms. Contrary to expectations, the population did not exhibit enhanced demographic vigor soon after the termination of the harvest program, with counts remaining between 100 and 190 animals during 1967 1981. However, the population irrupted (Caughley model with a one-year lag) to a peak abundance of approximately 600 pronghorn during 1982-1991, with a slowing in growth rate as counts exceeded 500. Numbers crashed to 235 pronghorn during 1992-1995, perhaps because important food resources (e.g., sagebrush) on the winter range were severely diminished by high densities of browsing elk, mule deer, and pronghorn. Pronghorn numbers remained relatively constant during 1996-2006, at a level (196-235) lower than peak abundance, but higher than numbers following the release from culling. The dynamics of this population supported the paradigm that irruption is a fundamental pattern of growth in many populations of large herbivores with high fecundity and delayed density-dependent effects

  16. Stochastic population dynamics: The Poisson approximation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solari, Hernán G.; Natiello, Mario A.

    2003-03-01

    We introduce an approximation to stochastic population dynamics based on almost independent Poisson processes whose parameters obey a set of coupled ordinary differential equations. The approximation applies to systems that evolve in terms of events such as death, birth, contagion, emission, absorption, etc., and we assume that the event-rates satisfy a generalized mass-action law. The dynamics of the populations is then the result of the projection from the space of events into the space of populations that determine the state of the system (phase space). The properties of the Poisson approximation are studied in detail. Especially, error bounds for the moment generating function and the generating function receive particular attention. The deterministic approximation for the population fractions and the Langevin-type approximation for the fluctuations around the mean value are recovered within the framework of the Poisson approximation as particular limit cases. However, the proposed framework allows to treat other limit cases and general situations with small populations that lie outside the scope of the standard approaches. The Poisson approximation can be viewed as a general (numerical) integration scheme for this family of problems in population dynamics.

  17. Sustainability of culture-driven population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ghirlanda, Stefano; Enquist, Magnus; Perc, Matjaz

    2010-05-01

    We consider models of the interactions between human population dynamics and cultural evolution, asking whether they predict sustainable or unsustainable patterns of growth. Phenomenological models predict either unsustainable population growth or stabilization in the near future. The latter prediction, however, is based on extrapolation of current demographic trends and does not take into account causal processes of demographic and cultural dynamics. Most existing causal models assume (or derive from simplified models of the economy) a positive feedback between cultural evolution and demographic growth, and predict unlimited growth in both culture and population. We augment these models taking into account that: (1) cultural transmission is not perfect, i.e., culture can be lost; (2) culture does not always promote population growth. We show that taking these factors into account can cause radically different model behavior, such as population extinction rather than stability, and extinction rather than growth. We conclude that all models agree that a population capable of maintaining a large amount of culture, including a powerful technology, runs a high risk of being unsustainable. We suggest that future work must address more explicitly both the dynamics of resource consumption and the cultural evolution of beliefs implicated in reproductive behavior (e.g., ideas about the preferred family size) and in resource use (e.g., environmentalist stances).

  18. Dispersive models describing mosquitoes’ population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamashita, W. M. S.; Takahashi, L. T.; Chapiro, G.

    2016-08-01

    The global incidences of dengue and, more recently, zica virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. Understanding this dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. This work is based on the study of nonlinear mathematical models dealing with the life cycle of the dengue mosquito using partial differential equations. We investigate the existence of traveling wave solutions using semi-analytical method combining dynamical systems techniques and numerical integration. Obtained solutions are validated through numerical simulations using finite difference schemes.

  19. Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

    In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three

  20. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Fallah-Fini, Saeideh; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2013-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model.

  1. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models

    PubMed Central

    Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2014-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

  2. Dynamic control and quantification of bacterial population dynamics in droplets.

    PubMed

    Huang, Shuqiang; Srimani, Jaydeep K; Lee, Anna J; Zhang, Ying; Lopatkin, Allison J; Leong, Kam W; You, Lingchong

    2015-08-01

    Culturing and measuring bacterial population dynamics are critical to develop insights into gene regulation or bacterial physiology. Traditional methods, based on bulk culture to obtain such quantification, have the limitations of higher cost/volume of reagents, non-amendable to small size of population and more laborious manipulation. To this end, droplet-based microfluidics represents a promising alternative that is cost-effective and high-throughput. However, difficulties in manipulating the droplet environment and monitoring encapsulated bacterial population for long-term experiments limit its utilization. To overcome these limitations, we used an electrode-free injection technology to modulate the chemical environment in droplets. This ability is critical for precise control of bacterial dynamics in droplets. Moreover, we developed a trapping device for long-term monitoring of population dynamics in individual droplets for at least 240 h. We demonstrated the utility of this new microfluidic system by quantifying population dynamics of natural and engineered bacteria. Our approach can further improve the analysis for systems and synthetic biology in terms of manipulability and high temporal resolution.

  3. Dynamic control and quantification of bacterial population dynamics in droplets

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Shuqiang; Srimani, Jaydeep K.; Lee, Anna J.; Zhang, Ying; Lopatkin, Allison J.; Leong, Kam W.; You, Lingchong

    2015-01-01

    Culturing and measuring bacterial population dynamics are critical to develop insights into gene regulation or bacterial physiology. Traditional methods, based on bulk culture to obtain such quantification, have the limitations of higher cost/volume of reagents, non-amendable to small size of population and more laborious manipulation. To this end, droplet-based microfluidics represents a promising alternative that is cost-effective and high-throughput. However, difficulties in manipulating the droplet environment and monitoring encapsulated bacterial population for long-term experiments limit its utilization. To overcome these limitations, we used an electrode-free injection technology to modulate the chemical environment in droplets. This ability is critical for precise control of bacterial dynamics in droplets. Moreover, we developed a trapping device for long-term monitoring of population dynamics in individual droplets for at least 240 h. We demonstrated the utility of this new microfluidic system by quantifying population dynamics of natural and engineered bacteria. Our approach can further improve the analysis for systems and synthetic biology in terms of manipulability and high temporal resolution. PMID:26005763

  4. Ecosystem engineers: feedback and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Cuddington, K; Wilson, W G; Hastings, A

    2009-04-01

    All organisms alter their abiotic environment, but ecosystem engineers are species with abiotic effects that may have to be explicitly accounted for when making predictions about population and community dynamics. The goal of this analysis is to identify those conditions in which engineering leads to population dynamics that are qualitatively different than one would predict using models that incorporate only biotic interactions. We present a simple model coupling an ecosystem engineer and the abiotic environment. We assume that the engineer alters environmental conditions at a rate dependent on engineer density and that the environment decays back to original conditions at an exponential rate. We determine when the feedback to population dynamics through environmental state can lead to altered equilibrium densities, bistability, or runaway growth of the engineer population. The conditions leading to changes in dynamics, such as susceptibility of a system to engineering or alteration of density-dependent and density-independent controls, define cases in which the engineering concept is essential for ecological understanding.

  5. Harmful Algal Bloom Webinar

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The problem is complex. Excessive nitrogen and phosphorous levels can cause harmful algal blooms. Different algal/cyanobacteria strains bloom under different conditions. Different strains produce different toxins at varying amounts.

  6. Dynamics of North American breeding bird populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keitt, Timothy H.; Stanley, H. Eugene

    1998-05-01

    Population biologists have long been interested in the variability of natural populations. One approach to dealing with ecological complexity is to reduce the system to one or a few species, for which meaningful equations can be solved. Here we explore an alternative approach, by studying the statistical properties of a data set containing over 600 species, namely the North American breeding bird survey. The survey has recorded annual species abundances over a 31-year period along more than 3,000 observation routes. We now analyse the dynamics of population variability using this data set, and find scaling features in common with inanimate systems composed of strongly interacting subunits. Specifically, we find that the distribution of changes in population abundance over a one-year interval is remarkably symmetrical, with long tails extending over six orders of magnitude. The variance of the population over a time series increases as a power-law with increasing time lag, indicating long-range correlation in population size fluctuations. We also find that the distribution of species lifetimes (the time between colonization and local extinction) within local patches is a power-law with an exponential cutoff imposed by the finite length of the time series. Our results provide a quantitative basis for modelling the dynamics of large species assemblages.

  7. Dynamics of newly established elk populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W.

    2007-01-01

    The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

  8. Population dynamics in non-homogeneous environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alards, Kim M. J.; Tesser, Francesca; Toschi, Federico

    2014-11-01

    For organisms living in aquatic ecosystems the presence of fluid transport can have a strong influence on the dynamics of populations and on evolution of species. In particular, displacements due to self-propulsion, summed up with turbulent dispersion at larger scales, strongly influence the local densities and thus population and genetic dynamics. Real marine environments are furthermore characterized by a high degree of non-homogeneities. In the case of population fronts propagating in ``fast'' turbulence, with respect to the population duplication time, the flow effect can be studied by replacing the microscopic diffusivity with an effective turbulent diffusivity. In the opposite case of ``slow'' turbulence the advection by the flow has to be considered locally. Here we employ numerical simulations to study the influence of non-homogeneities in the diffusion coefficient of reacting individuals of different species expanding in a 2 dimensional space. Moreover, to explore the influence of advection, we consider a population expanding in the presence of simple velocity fields like cellular flows. The output is analyzed in terms of front roughness, front shape, propagation speed and, concerning the genetics, by means of heterozygosity and local and global extinction probabilities.

  9. Dynamics of protein distributions in cell populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brenner, Naama; Farkash, Keren; Braun, Erez

    2006-09-01

    A population of cells exhibits wide phenotypic variation even if it is genetically homogeneous. In particular, individual cells differ from one another in the amount of protein they express under a given regulatory system under fixed conditions. Here we study how protein distributions in a population of the yeast S. cerevisiae are shaped by a balance of processes: protein production—an intracellular process—and protein dilution due to cell division—a population process. We measure protein distributions by employing reporter green fluorescence protein (gfp) under the regulation of the yeast GAL system under conditions where it is metabolically essential. Cell populations are grown in chemostats, thus allowing control of the environment and stable measurements of distribution dynamics over many generations. Despite the essential functional role of the GAL system in a pure galactose medium, steady-state distributions are found to be universally broad, with exponential tails and a large standard-deviation-to-mean ratio. Under several different perturbations the dynamics of the distribution is observed to be asymmetric, with a much longer time to build a wide expression distribution from below compared with a fast relaxation of the distribution toward steady state from above. These results show that the main features of the protein distributions are largely determined by population effects and are less sensitive to the intracellular biochemical noise.

  10. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  11. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  12. Baseline nutrient dynamics in shallow well mixed coastal lagoon with seasonal harmful algal blooms and hypoxia formation.

    PubMed

    Turner, Evan L; Paudel, Bhanu; Montagna, Paul A

    2015-07-15

    Weekly inorganic nutrient and chlorophyll-a concentrations were measured to establish baseline conditions in Corpus Christi Bay, Texas during seasonal hypoxia and harmful algal bloom (HAB) formation. Two fixed stations along the southern shoreline were sampled weekly for a continuous year at the same time each day. Weekly shoreline observations were found to be statistically similar to quarterly observations in the bay center, but with a greater power to detect seasonal trends. Dissolved Oxygen (DO)<4 mg/L was measured in June, 2012 along the southern shoreline of Corpus Christi Bay, which places lower DO conditions west of previous estimates. During a bay-wide HAB event in November of 2011 no changes were observed in any of the nutrient or chlorophyll-a observations. This study documents a baseline of nutrients and chlorophyll-a in Corpus Christi Bay during a dry (average salinity>36 PSU) year. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  14. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  15. Population clocks: motor timing with neural dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Buonomano, Dean V.; Laje, Rodrigo

    2010-01-01

    An understanding of sensory and motor processing will require elucidation of the mechanisms by which the brain tells time. Open questions relate to whether timing relies on dedicated or intrinsic mechanisms and whether distinct mechanisms underlie timing across scales and modalities. Although experimental and theoretical studies support the notion that neural circuits are intrinsically capable of sensory timing on short scales, few general models of motor timing have been proposed. For one class of models, population clocks, it is proposed that time is encoded in the time-varying patterns of activity of a population of neurons. We argue that population clocks emerge from the internal dynamics of recurrently connected networks, are biologically realistic and account for many aspects of motor timing. PMID:20889368

  16. Relating individual behaviour to population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Sumpter, D J; Broomhead, D S

    2001-05-07

    How do the behavioural interactions between individuals in an ecological system produce the global population dynamics of that system? We present a stochastic individual-based model of the reproductive cycle of the mite Varroa jacobsoni, a parasite of honeybees. The model has the interesting property in that its population level behaviour is approximated extremely accurately by the exponential logistic equation or Ricker map. We demonstrated how this approximation is obtained mathematically and how the parameters of the exponential logistic equation can be written in terms of the parameters of the individual-based model. Our procedure demonstrates, in at least one case, how study of animal ecology at an individual level can be used to derive global models which predict population change over time.

  17. Algal functional annotation tool

    SciTech Connect

    Lopez, D.; Casero, D.; Cokus, S. J.; Merchant, S. S.; Pellegrini, M.

    2012-07-01

    The Algal Functional Annotation Tool is a web-based comprehensive analysis suite integrating annotation data from several pathway, ontology, and protein family databases. The current version provides annotation for the model alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, and in the future will include additional genomes. The site allows users to interpret large gene lists by identifying associated functional terms, and their enrichment. Additionally, expression data for several experimental conditions were compiled and analyzed to provide an expression-based enrichment search. A tool to search for functionally-related genes based on gene expression across these conditions is also provided. Other features include dynamic visualization of genes on KEGG pathway maps and batch gene identifier conversion.

  18. Hidden hysteresis – population dynamics can obscure gene network dynamics

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Positive feedback is a common motif in gene regulatory networks. It can be used in synthetic networks as an amplifier to increase the level of gene expression, as well as a nonlinear module to create bistable gene networks that display hysteresis in response to a given stimulus. Using a synthetic positive feedback-based tetracycline sensor in E. coli, we show that the population dynamics of a cell culture has a profound effect on the observed hysteretic response of a population of cells with this synthetic gene circuit. Results The amount of observable hysteresis in a cell culture harboring the gene circuit depended on the initial concentration of cells within the culture. The magnitude of the hysteresis observed was inversely related to the dilution procedure used to inoculate the subcultures; the higher the dilution of the cell culture, lower was the observed hysteresis of that culture at steady state. Although the behavior of the gene circuit in individual cells did not change significantly in the different subcultures, the proportion of cells exhibiting high levels of steady-state gene expression did change. Although the interrelated kinetics of gene expression and cell growth are unpredictable at first sight, we were able to resolve the surprising dilution-dependent hysteresis as a result of two interrelated phenomena - the stochastic switching between the ON and OFF phenotypes that led to the cumulative failure of the gene circuit over time, and the nonlinear, logistic growth of the cell in the batch culture. Conclusions These findings reinforce the fact that population dynamics cannot be ignored in analyzing the dynamics of gene networks. Indeed population dynamics may play a significant role in the manifestation of bistability and hysteresis, and is an important consideration when designing synthetic gene circuits intended for long-term application. PMID:23800122

  19. Population Code Dynamics in Categorical Perception

    PubMed Central

    Tajima, Chihiro I.; Tajima, Satohiro; Koida, Kowa; Komatsu, Hidehiko; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Suzuki, Hideyuki

    2016-01-01

    Categorical perception is a ubiquitous function in sensory information processing, and is reported to have important influences on the recognition of presented and/or memorized stimuli. However, such complex interactions among categorical perception and other aspects of sensory processing have not been explained well in a unified manner. Here, we propose a recurrent neural network model to process categorical information of stimuli, which approximately realizes a hierarchical Bayesian estimation on stimuli. The model accounts for a wide variety of neurophysiological and cognitive phenomena in a consistent framework. In particular, the reported complexity of categorical effects, including (i) task-dependent modulation of neural response, (ii) clustering of neural population representation, (iii) temporal evolution of perceptual color memory, and (iv) a non-uniform discrimination threshold, are explained as different aspects of a single model. Moreover, we directly examine key model behaviors in the monkey visual cortex by analyzing neural population dynamics during categorization and discrimination of color stimuli. We find that the categorical task causes temporally-evolving biases in the neuronal population representations toward the focal colors, which supports the proposed model. These results suggest that categorical perception can be achieved by recurrent neural dynamics that approximates optimal probabilistic inference in the changing environment. PMID:26935275

  20. Role of noise in population dynamics cycles.

    PubMed

    Tomé, Tânia; de Oliveira, Mário J

    2009-06-01

    Noise is an intrinsic feature of population dynamics and plays a crucial role in oscillations called phase-forgetting quasicycles by converting damped into sustained oscillations. This function of noise becomes evident when considering Langevin equations whose deterministic part yields only damped oscillations. We formulate here a consistent and systematic approach to population dynamics, leading to a Fokker-Planck equation and the associate Langevin equations in accordance with this conceptual framework, founded on stochastic lattice-gas models that describe spatially structured predator-prey systems. Langevin equations in the population densities and predator-prey pair density are derived in two stages. First, a birth-and-death stochastic process in the space of prey and predator numbers and predator-prey pair number is obtained by a contraction method that reduces the degrees of freedom. Second, a van Kampen expansion in the inverse of system size is then performed to get the Fokker-Planck equation. We also study the time correlation function, the asymptotic behavior of which is used to characterize the transition from the cyclic coexistence of species to the ordinary coexistence.

  1. Computer Assisted Instruction of Population Dynamics: A New Approach to Population Education. Report No. T-19.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klaff, Vivian; Handler, Paul

    Available on the University of Illinois PLATO IV Computer system, the Population Dynamic Group computer-aided instruction program for teaching population dynamics is described and explained. The computer-generated visual graphics enable fast and intuitive understanding of the dynamics of population and of the concepts and data of population. The…

  2. Ecological risk assessment of herbicides in Japan: Integrating spatiotemporal variation in exposure and effects using a multimedia model and algal density dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, Takehiko I; Imaizumi, Yoshitaka; Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Tatarazako, Norihisa; Suzuki, Noriyuki

    2016-01-01

    Application of herbicides to paddy fields in Japan has strong seasonality, and their environmental concentrations exhibit clear spatiotemporal variation. The authors developed an approach that combines a multimedia environmental exposure model (Grid-Catchment Integrated Modeling System) and density dynamics models for algae. This approach enabled assessment of ecological risk when the exposure concentration shows spatiotemporal variation. First, risk maps of 5 herbicides (pretilachlor, butachlor, simetryn, mefenacet, and esprocarb) were created from the spatial predictions of environmental concentrations and 50% inhibitory concentrations of the herbicides. Simulations of algal density dynamics at high-risk sites were then conducted by incorporating the predicted temporal dynamics of the environmental concentration of each herbicide at the sites. The results suggested that the risk of pretilachlor was clearly the highest of the 5 herbicides, in terms of both the spatial distributions and the temporal durations. The present study highlights the importance of integrating exposure models and effect models to clarify spatial and temporal risk and to develop management plans for chemical exposure that shows high spatiotemporal variation.

  3. Monitoring microbial population dynamics at low densities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Julou, Thomas; Desprat, Nicolas; Bensimon, David; Croquette, Vincent

    2012-07-01

    We propose a new and simple method for the measurement of microbial concentrations in highly diluted cultures. This method is based on an analysis of the intensity fluctuations of light scattered by microbial cells under laser illumination. Two possible measurement strategies are identified and compared using simulations and measurements of the concentration of gold nanoparticles. Based on this comparison, we show that the concentration of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultures can be easily measured in situ across a concentration range that spans five orders of magnitude. The lowest measurable concentration is three orders of magnitude (1000×) smaller than in current optical density measurements. We show further that this method can also be used to measure the concentration of fluorescent microbial cells. In practice, this new method is well suited to monitor the dynamics of population growth at early colonization of a liquid culture medium. The dynamic data thus obtained are particularly relevant for microbial ecology studies.

  4. Mosquito populations dynamics associated with climate variations.

    PubMed

    Wilke, André Barretto Bruno; Medeiros-Sousa, Antônio Ralph; Ceretti-Junior, Walter; Marrelli, Mauro Toledo

    2017-02-01

    Mosquitoes are responsible for the transmission of numerous serious pathogens. Members of the Aedes and Culex genera, which include many important vectors of mosquito-borne diseases, are highly invasive and adapted to man-made environments. They are spread around the world involuntarily by humans and are highly adapted to urbanized environments, where they are exposed to climate-related abundance drivers. We investigated Culicidae fauna in two urban parks in the city of São Paulo to analyze the correlations between climatic variables and the population dynamics of mosquitoes in these urban areas. Mosquitoes were collected monthly over one year, and sampling sufficiency was evaluated after morphological identification of the specimens. The average monthly temperature and accumulated rainfall for the collection month and previous month were used to explain climate-related abundance drivers for the six most abundant species (Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Aedes fluviatilis, Aedes scapularis, Culex nigripalpus and Culex quinquefasciatus) and then analyzed using generalized linear statistical models and the Akaike Information Criteria corrected for small samples (AICc). The strength of evidence in favor of each model was evaluated using Akaike weights, and the explanatory model power was measured by McFadden's Pseudo-R(2). Associations between climate and mosquito abundance were found in both parks, indicating that predictive models based on climate variables can provide important information on mosquito population dynamics. We also found that this association is species-dependent. Urbanization processes increase the abundance of a few mosquito species that are well adapted to man-made environments and some of which are important vectors of pathogens. Predictive models for abundance based on climate variables may help elucidate the population dynamics of urban mosquitoes and their impact on the risk of disease transmission, allowing better predictive scenarios to be

  5. Impacts of Sea-ice Dynamics and Snow Cover on Arctic Algal Biomass and Production during the N-ICE2015 Drift Expedition.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernández-Méndez, M.; Mork Olsen, L.; Kauko, H.; Duarte, P.; Mundy, C. J.; Laney, S. R.; Hop, H.; Meyer, A.; Fransson, A.; Gerland, S.; Rösel, A.; Granskog, M. A.; Hudson, S. R.; Cohen, L.; Assmy, P.

    2016-02-01

    The Arctic icescape is rapidly transforming from a thick multi-year ice cover to a thinner and largely seasonal first-year ice cover with significant consequences for Arctic primary production inside the sea ice (ice algae) and in the underlying water column (phytoplankton). We studied the effects of changing sea-ice and snow conditions on the seasonality of phytoplankton and sea-ice algae in the marginal ice zone in the Arctic Ocean (AO) north of Svalbard from January to June 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice cruise (N-ICE2015). This drift expedition provided a unique seasonal data set during the winter-spring transition in the high Arctic pack-ice ecosystem contributing to a realistic forecast of the evolution of the AO marine ecosystem. Phytoplankton productivity stayed low throughout winter and early spring. By late May, a massive under ice bloom (>300 mg Chl a m-2) dominated by Phaeocystis pouchetii developed underneath the snow-covered pack-ice. Although the initial biomass probably was advected from the ice margin, the bloom continued growing below the ice, consuming nutrients, until its culmination in late June. Sea-ice algal productivity was generally low due to thick snow cover (up to 0.5 m) on the ice and was mainly confined to new ice formed on refrozen leads and to first-year ice ridges. Interestingly, distinct sea-ice algae assemblages populated different parts of the ridge ledges. In addition, due to the thin ice and deep snow cover, we observed infiltration communities, mainly composed of phytoplankton taxa such as Phaeocystis pouchetii and Thalassiosira spp., to accumulate significant algal biomass at the snow-ice interface alongside cracks in the sea ice. Although rarely observed in Arctic environments due to a typical low snow depth to ice thickness ratio, we suggest that with the thinning ice cover infiltration communities may increase their occurrence into the future.

  6. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  7. Assessing the dynamics of wild populations

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Lotka's equations summarizing population dynamics can be approximated by functional models of the survivorship and reproductive curves, incorporating three stages of survival and reproduction, respectively. An abbreviated form uses a single reproductive parameter and two survival values. Survivorship and reproductive curves were fitted to data on northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), domestic and feral sheep, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), free-ranging horses, and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). Data for 10 species suggest a useful relationship between senescence parameters. A bias due to senescence may lead to serious underestimation of survival rates. Observed annual rates of increase of 18-20% for feral horses, 16% for southern fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), and 60% for white-tailed deer are compatible with observed population parameters. 43 references, 11 figures, 3 tables.

  8. Dynamically hot galaxies. II - Global stellar populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bender, Ralf; Burstein, David; Faber, S. M.

    1993-01-01

    The global relationship between the stellar populations and the structural properties of dynamically hot galaxies (DHGs) is investigated using the same sample as was analyzed by Bender et al. (1992), which includes giant ellipticals, low-luminosity ellipticals, compact ellipticals, diffuse dwarf ellipticals, dwarf spheroidals, and bulges. It was found that all DHGs follow a single relationship between global stellar population (represented by Mg2 index or B-V color) and central velocity dispersion sigma(0), and that the Mg2-sigma(0) relation is significantly tighter than the relation between the Mg2 index and absolute luminosity. The relation between central Mg2 index and bulk B-V color was also found to be tight.

  9. Detection and effects of harmful algal toxins in Scottish harbour seals and potential links to population decline.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Silje-Kristin; Lacaze, Jean-Pierre; Hermann, Guillaume; Kershaw, Joanna; Brownlow, Andrew; Turner, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa

    2015-04-01

    Over the past 15 years or so, several Scottish harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations have declined in abundance and several factors have been considered as possible causes, including toxins from harmful algae. Here we explore whether a link could be established between two groups of toxins, domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxins (STXs), and the decline in the harbour seal populations in Scotland. We document the first evidence that harbour seals are exposed to both DA and STXs from consuming contaminated fish. Both groups of toxins were found in urine and faeces sampled from live captured (n = 162) and stranded animals (n = 23) and in faecal samples collected from seal haul-out sites (n = 214) between 2008 and 2013. The proportion of positive samples and the toxins levels measured in the excreta were significantly higher in areas where harbour seal abundance is in decline. There is also evidence that DA has immunomodulatory effects in harbour seals, including lymphocytopenia and monocytosis. Scottish harbour seals are exposed to DA and STXs through contaminated prey at potentially lethal levels and with this evidence we suggest that exposure to these toxins are likely to be important factors driving the harbour seal decline in some regions of Scotland.

  10. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    PubMed

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

  11. Genetic diversity of Ulva prolifera population in Qingdao coastal water during the green algal blooms revealed by microsatellite.

    PubMed

    Li, Yue; Huang, Hong-Jia; Li, Hongye; Liu, Jiesheng; Yang, Weidong

    2016-10-15

    Green tides have occurred in Qingdao coast in China for seven consecutive years from 2007 to 2013. To provide information on the genetic structure of these blooms, 210 free-floating green algae samples isolated from the green tide in Qingdao coast on June 19, 2013 were identified based on the ITS, rbcL and 5S sequence, and genetic diversity was investigated by microsatellite markers. According to ITS, rbcL and 5S sequence, all the 210 samples belonged to Ulva prolifera. Nei's genetic diversity and Shannon index estimated using eight microsatellite markers indicated that the genetic diversity of U. prolifera population within Qingdao's green bloom in 2013 was low. Taking into account previous reports about life history and physiology of U. prolifera, we proposed that the limited origin area of the free-floating biomass and asexual reproduction of U. prolifera might be responsible for the lower diversity of free floating U. prolifera. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  13. Uncovering the Complex Transcriptome Response of Mytilus chilensis against Saxitoxin: Implications of Harmful Algal Blooms on Mussel Populations

    PubMed Central

    Detree, Camille; Núñez-Acuña, Gustavo; Roberts, Steven; Gallardo-Escárate, Cristian

    2016-01-01

    Saxitoxin (STX), a principal phycotoxin contributing to paralytic shellfish poisoning, is largely produced by marine microalgae of the genus Alexandrium. This toxin affects a wide range of species, inducing massive deaths in fish and other marine species. However, marine bivalves can resist and accumulate paralytic shellfish poisons. Despite numerous studies on the impact of STX in marine bivalves, knowledge regarding STX recognition at molecular level by benthic species remains scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify novel genes that interact with STX in the Chilean mussel Mytilus chilensis. For this, RNA-seq and RT-qPCR approaches were used to evaluate the transcriptomic response of M. chilensis to a purified STX as well as in vivo Alexandrium catenella exposure. Approximately 800 million reads were assembled, generating 138,883 contigs that were blasted against the UniProt Mollusca database. Pattern Recognition Receptors (PRRs) involved in mussel immunity, such as Toll-like receptors, tumor necrosis factor receptors, and scavenger-like receptors were found to be strongly upregulated at 8 and 16 h post-STX injection. These results suggest an involvement of PRRs in the response to STX, as well as identifying potential, novel STX-interacting receptors in this Chilean mussel. This study is the first transcriptomic overview of the STX-response in the edible species M. chilensis. However, the most significant contribution of this work is the identification of immune receptors and pathways potentially involved in the recognition and defense against STX’s toxicity and its impact of harmful algae blooms on wild and cultivated mussel populations. PMID:27764234

  14. Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Erik A.; Kiesling, Richard L.; Galloway, Joel M.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2014-01-01

    Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the

  15. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  16. Occupation Dynamics and Impacts of Damselfish Territoriality on Recovering Populations of the Threatened Staghorn Coral, Acropora cervicornis.

    PubMed

    Schopmeyer, Stephanie A; Lirman, Diego

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale coral reef restoration is needed to help recover structure and function of degraded coral reef ecosystems and mitigate continued coral declines. In situ coral propagation and reef restoration efforts have scaled up significantly in past decades, particularly for the threatened Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, but little is known about the role that native competitors and predators, such as farming damselfishes, have on the success of restoration. Steep declines in A. cervicornis abundance may have concentrated the negative impacts of damselfish algal farming on a much lower number of coral prey/colonies, thus creating a significant threat to the persistence and recovery of depleted coral populations. This is the first study to document the prevalence of resident damselfishes and negative effects of algal lawns on A. cervicornis along the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). Impacts of damselfish lawns on A. cervicornis colonies were more prevalent (21.6% of colonies) than those of other sources of mortality (i.e., disease (1.6%), algal/sponge overgrowth (5.6%), and corallivore predation (7.9%)), and damselfish activities caused the highest levels of tissue mortality (34.6%) among all coral stressors evaluated. The probability of damselfish occupation increased as coral colony size and complexity increased and coral growth rates were significantly lower in colonies with damselfish lawns (15.4 vs. 29.6 cm per year). Reduced growth and mortality of existing A. cervicornis populations may have a significant effect on population dynamics by potentially reducing important genetic diversity and the reproductive potential of depleted populations. On a positive note, however, the presence of resident damselfishes decreased predation by other corallivores, such as Coralliophila and Hermodice, and may offset some negative impacts caused by algal farming. While most negative impacts of damselfishes identified in this study affected large individual colonies and

  17. Occupation Dynamics and Impacts of Damselfish Territoriality on Recovering Populations of the Threatened Staghorn Coral, Acropora cervicornis

    PubMed Central

    Schopmeyer, Stephanie A.; Lirman, Diego

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale coral reef restoration is needed to help recover structure and function of degraded coral reef ecosystems and mitigate continued coral declines. In situ coral propagation and reef restoration efforts have scaled up significantly in past decades, particularly for the threatened Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, but little is known about the role that native competitors and predators, such as farming damselfishes, have on the success of restoration. Steep declines in A. cervicornis abundance may have concentrated the negative impacts of damselfish algal farming on a much lower number of coral prey/colonies, thus creating a significant threat to the persistence and recovery of depleted coral populations. This is the first study to document the prevalence of resident damselfishes and negative effects of algal lawns on A. cervicornis along the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). Impacts of damselfish lawns on A. cervicornis colonies were more prevalent (21.6% of colonies) than those of other sources of mortality (i.e., disease (1.6%), algal/sponge overgrowth (5.6%), and corallivore predation (7.9%)), and damselfish activities caused the highest levels of tissue mortality (34.6%) among all coral stressors evaluated. The probability of damselfish occupation increased as coral colony size and complexity increased and coral growth rates were significantly lower in colonies with damselfish lawns (15.4 vs. 29.6 cm per year). Reduced growth and mortality of existing A. cervicornis populations may have a significant effect on population dynamics by potentially reducing important genetic diversity and the reproductive potential of depleted populations. On a positive note, however, the presence of resident damselfishes decreased predation by other corallivores, such as Coralliophila and Hermodice, and may offset some negative impacts caused by algal farming. While most negative impacts of damselfishes identified in this study affected large individual colonies and

  18. The population dynamics of antimicrobial chemotherapy.

    PubMed Central

    Lipsitch, M; Levin, B R

    1997-01-01

    We present and analyze a series of mathematical models for the emergence of resistance during antibiotic treatment of an infected host. The models consider the population dynamics of antibiotic-sensitive and -resistant bacteria during the course of treatment and addresses the following problems: (i) the probability of obtaining a resistant mutant during the course of treatment as a function of antibiotic exposure; (ii) the conditions under which high, infrequent doses of an antibiotic are predicted to succeed in preventing the emergence of resistance; (iii) the conditions for the success of multiple drug treatment in suppressing the emergence of resistance and the relationship between antibiotic synergism and suppression of resistance; and (iv) the conditions under which nonadherence to the prescribed treatment regimen is predicted to result in treatment failure due to resistance. We analyze the predictions of the model for interpreting and extrapolating existing experimental studies of treatment efficacy and for optimizing treatment protocols to prevent the emergence of resistance. PMID:9021193

  19. Biotic Population Dynamics: Creative Biotic Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabelli, Hector; Kovacevic, Lazar

    We present empirical studies and computer models of population dynamics that demonstrate creative features and we speculate that these creative processes may underline evolution. Changes in population size of lynx, muskrat, beaver, salmon, and fox display diversification, episodic changes in pattern, novelty, and evidence for nonrandom causation. These features of creativity characterize bios, and rule out random, periodic, chaotic, and random walk patterns. Biotic patterns are also demonstrated in time series generated with multi-agent predator-prey simulations. These results indicate that evolutionary processes are continually operating. In contrast to standard evolutionary theory (random variation, competition for scarce resources, selection by survival of the fittest, and directionless, meaningless evolution), we propose that biological evolution is a creative development from simple to complex in which (1) causal actions generate biological variation; (2) bipolar feedback (synergy and antagonism, abundance and scarcity) generates information (diversification, novelty and complexity); (3) connections (of molecules, genes, species) construct systems in which simple processes have priority for survival but complex processes acquire supremacy.

  20. PHYTOPLANKTON DYNAMICS IN A GULF OF MEXICO ESTUARY: TIME SERIES OF SIZE STRUCTURE, NUTRIENTS, VARIABLE FLUORESCENCE AND ALGAL PHOSPHATASE ACTIVITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Relationships between phytoplankton dynamics and physiology, and environmental conditions were studied in Santa Rosa Sound, Florida, USA, at near-weekly intervals during 2001. Santa Rosa Sound is a component of the Pensacola Bay estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Parameters ...

  1. Population Dynamics and Convective Cloud Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nober, F. J.; Graf, H.-F.

    2003-04-01

    A cumulus cloud field model has been coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The results, which show a good performance of the model within the AGCM and a qualitative good agreement to observation concerning the statistical information of cloud fields are presented. While most of the current cumulus convection parameterisations are formulated as massflux schemes (determing the overall massflux of all cumulus clouds in one AGCM grid column) the presented cloud field model determines for each AGCM grid column, where convection takes place, an explicit spectrum of different clouds. Therefore the information about the actual cumulus convection state in a grid column is not restricted to an avereged massflux but includes the number of different cloud types which in principle are able to develope under the given vertical condition. The degree to which part each cloud type participates in the whole cloud field is determined by the cloud field model with respect to the special vertical state in the grid column. The choice of the cloud model to define the different cloud types is very flexible. Very simple cloud models are possible but also more complex ones that describe more realistic clouds (including dynamic and microphysical information) than simple massflux approaches do. The cloud field model takes into account the interaction between all non-convective processes calculated by the AGCM and (which makes the procedure self constistent) the cloud-cloud interaction between each cloud type and each other. The final calculation of the cloud field is done following an approach from population dynamics (Lotka-Volterra-Equation). The tests of the model in the ECHAM5 AGCM (running in single column mode) shows that the model produces reliable convective feedbacks (i.e. integral convective heating, convective transport, etc.). The additional information of the cloud field structure (power law behavior of cloud size distribution, cloud tops for each cloud type

  2. Effects of algal turfs and sediment on coral settlement.

    PubMed

    Birrell, Chico L; McCook, Laurence J; Willis, Bette L

    2005-01-01

    Successful settlement and recruitment of corals is critical to the resilience of coral reefs. Given that many degraded reefs are dominated by benthic algae, recovery of coral populations after bleaching and other disturbances requires successful settlement amidst benthic algae. Algal turfs often accumulate sediments, sediments are known to inhibit coral settlement, and reefs with high inputs of terrestrial sediments are often dominated by turfs. We investigated the impacts of two algal turf assemblages, and of sediment deposits, on settlement of the coral Acropora millepora (Ehrenberg). Adding sediment reduced coral settlement, but the effects of different algal turfs varied. In one case, algal turfs inhibited coral settlement, whereas the other turf only inhibited settlement when combined with sediments. These results provide the first direct, experimental evidence of effects of filamentous algal turfs on coral settlement, the variability in those effects, and the potential combined effects of algal turfs and trapped sediments.

  3. Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

    PubMed

    Darling, Aaron E; Miklós, István; Ragan, Mark A

    2008-07-18

    characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes.

  4. Harmful Algal Blooms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Graham, Jennifer L.

    2007-01-01

    What are Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)? Freshwater and marine harmful algal blooms (HABs) can occur anytime water use is impaired due to excessive accumulations of algae. HAB occurrence is affected by a complex set of physical, chemical, biological, hydrological, and meteorological conditions making it difficult to isolate specific causative environmental factors. Potential impairments include reduction in water quality, accumulation of malodorous scums in beach areas, algal production of toxins potent enough to poison both aquatic and terrestrial organisms, and algal production of taste-and-odor compounds that cause unpalatable drinking water and fish. HABs are a global problem, and toxic freshwater and (or) marine algae have been implicated in human and animal illness and death in over 45 countries worldwide and in at least 27 U.S. States (Yoo and others, 1995; Chorus and Bartram, 1999; Huisman and others, 2005).

  5. Indicators: Algal Toxins (microcystin)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Algal toxins are toxic substances released by some types of algae (phytoplankton) when they are present in large quantities (blooms) and decay or degrade. High nutrient levels and warm temperatures often result in favorable conditions for algae blooms.

  6. Algal Supply System Design - Harmonized Version

    SciTech Connect

    Abodeely, Jared; Stevens, Daniel; Ray, Allison; Newby, Deborah; Schaller, Kastli

    2013-03-01

    The objective of this design report is to provide an assessment of current technologies used for production, dewatering, and converting microalgae cultivated in open-pond systems to biofuel. The original draft design was created in 2011 and has subsequently been brought into agreement with the DOE harmonized model. The design report extends beyond this harmonized model to discuss some of the challenges with assessing algal production systems, including the ability to (1) quickly assess alternative algal production system designs, (2) assess spatial and temporal variability, and (3) perform large-scale assessments considering multiple scenarios for thousands of potential sites. The Algae Logistics Model (ALM) was developed to address each of these limitations of current modeling efforts to enable assessment of the economic feasibility of algal production systems across the United States. The (ALM) enables (1) dynamic assessments using spatiotemporal conditions, (2) exploration of algal production system design configurations, (3) investigation of algal production system operating assumptions, and (4) trade-off assessments with technology decisions and operating assumptions. The report discusses results from the ALM, which is used to assess the baseline design determined by harmonization efforts between U.S. DOE national laboratories. Productivity and resource assessment data is provided by coupling the ALM with the Biomass Assessment Tool developed at PNNL. This high-fidelity data is dynamically passed to the ALM and used to help better understand the impacts of spatial and temporal constraints on algal production systems by providing a cost for producing extracted algal lipids annually for each potential site.

  7. [Generalized behavior study on the growth dynamics for dominant algae species forming algal bloom in the three Gorges reservoir region].

    PubMed

    Liu, Xin-an; Feng, Li; Jia, Charles Q

    2008-08-01

    From the blue-green algae species a representative algae, namely, ChloreUlla vulgaris (CV)to belong to Chlorophyta is selected as one of algae species studied in order to investigate the effect of TN, TP on the growth behavior of CV with the Monod equation, and calculate the semi-saturation constants of CV to TP(K(SP)) and TN(K(SN)). K(SN) > K(SP) showed that the effect of TP on growth of CV is obvious significant than that of TN. The growth rate of Chlorella vulgaris is very sensitive to the concentration of phosphorus: Compares with the blank value, the special growth rate (mu) has been enhanced under the low concentration of 0.002 mg x L(-1), then the concentration turned to 0.2 mg x L(-1) the special growth rate (mu) has been enhanced obviously; but there was hardly any change under the concentration of nitrogen from 0.000 to 0.050 mg x L(-1). At the same time, in order to reveal whether there was a generalized character associating the growth dynamics of CV with that of dominant blue-green algae species, the dynamic models including CV constructed from our experimental data, dominant blue-green algae and sea algae from literature information have been compared and analyzed systemically, and the results showed that their growth dynamics behavior and ecological characteristic were extremely similar and common. According to extrapolation of the intercommunity of all growth dynamics we could describe and show availably there is a common behavior to the growth of dominant blue-green algae in the Three Gorges reservoir region. This conclusion would have some important theoretical and applied significance.

  8. Dynamics of two phytoplankton populations under predation.

    PubMed

    Kengwoung-Keumo, Jean-Jacques

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the manner in which predation and single-nutrient competition affect the dynamics of a non-toxic and a toxic phytoplankton species in a homogeneous environment (such as a chemostat). We allow for the possibility that both species serve as prey for an herbivorous zooplankton species. We assume that the toxic phytoplankton species produces toxins that affect only its own growth (autotoxicity). The autotoxicity assumption is ecologically explained by the fact that the toxin-producing phytoplankton is not mature enough to produce toxins that will affect the growth of its nontoxic competitor. We show that, in the absence of phytotoxic interactions and nutrient recycling, our model exhibits uniform persistence. The removal rates are distinct and we use general response functions. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to show consistency with theoretical analysis. Our model has similarities with other food-chain models. As such, our results may be relevant to a wider spectrum of population models, not just those focused on plankton. Some open problems are discussed at the end of this paper.

  9. Inter-annual sea-ice dynamics and micro-algal biomass in winter pack ice of Marguerite Bay, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritsen, Christian H.; Memmott, Jeramie; Stewart, Frank J.

    2008-09-01

    The geographic remoteness, the lack of remote sensing capabilities, and the lack of appropriate environmental sensors make the detection of seasonal trends or inter-annual variations in sea-ice microbial biomass or production processes within the pack ice of the Antarctic extremely rare. The evaluation of their inter-annual variability in the context of ice dynamics and trends in regional climate has not been possible. During the late winters of 2001 (July-August) and 2002 (August-September) we assessed sea-ice dynamics, sea-ice characteristics, and biomass of sea-ice microbiota along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. These two winters were marked by large contrasts in the dates of initial ice formation (late June in 2001 and April in 2002), which resulted in differences in the physical pack-ice characteristics. Chlorophyll a (chl a) content in ice cores differed between the study years, with 2002 having 10-fold higher chl a content. The difference in ice-core chl a content is best explained by the timing of ice formation that leads to less phytoplankton scavenging from the water column and a lack of transfer of solar energy into the pack-ice ecosystem. Such a tractable atmosphere ocean-ice-biota coupling may help in evaluating underlying processes responsible for long-term trends in recruitment cycles of upper trophic levels as well as future projections on the response of the Antarctic marine ecosystems to variability in local climate.

  10. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. Consequences of parental care on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira, S. Moss

    1999-12-01

    We review the results obtained using the Penna model for biological ageing (T.J.P. Penna, J. Stat. Phys. 78 (1995) 1629) when different strategies of parental care are introduced into evolving populations. These results concern to: longevity of semelparous populations; self-organization of female menopause; the spatial distribution of the populations and finally, sexual fidelity.

  12. Microbial population dynamics by digital in-line holographic microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Hekstra, Doeke; Leibler, Stanislas

    2010-08-01

    Measurements of population dynamics are ubiquitous in experiments with microorganisms. Studies with microbes elucidating adaptation, selection, and competition rely on measurements of changing populations in time. Despite this importance, quantitative methods for measuring population dynamics microscopically, with high time resolution, across many replicates remain limited. Here we present a new noninvasive method to precisely measure microbial spatiotemporal population dynamics based on digital in-line holographic (DIH) microscopy. Our inexpensive, replicate DIH microscopes imaged hundreds of swimming algae in three dimensions within a volume of several microliters on a time scale of minutes over periods of weeks.

  13. Microbial population dynamics by digital in-line holographic microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Hekstra, Doeke; Leibler, Stanislas

    2010-01-01

    Measurements of population dynamics are ubiquitous in experiments with microorganisms. Studies with microbes elucidating adaptation, selection, and competition rely on measurements of changing populations in time. Despite this importance, quantitative methods for measuring population dynamics microscopically, with high time resolution, across many replicates remain limited. Here we present a new noninvasive method to precisely measure microbial spatiotemporal population dynamics based on digital in-line holographic (DIH) microscopy. Our inexpensive, replicate DIH microscopes imaged hundreds of swimming algae in three dimensions within a volume of several microliters on a time scale of minutes over periods of weeks. PMID:20815617

  14. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  15. Introducing Dynamic Analysis Using Malthus's Principle of Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pingle, Mark

    2003-01-01

    Declares the use of dynamic models is increasing in macroeconomics. Explains how to introduce dynamic models to students whose technical skills are modest or varied. Chooses Malthus's Principle of Population as a natural context for introducing dynamic analysis because it provides a method for reviewing the mathematical tools and theoretical…

  16. Leisure Today: Population Dynamics--The Changing Face of America.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dunn, Diana R., Ed.; And Others

    1981-01-01

    A collection of articles examines the changing character of the American population and the importance of planning new recreation and leisure services to meet changing population needs. Included are discussions on demography and population dynamics; the effects of immigration; changing work and life styles; and changes in family structure and…

  17. Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears

    SciTech Connect

    Knight, R.R.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-04-01

    Data on the population of grizzly bears in the environs of Yellowstone National Park suggest that the population has not recovered from the reductions following closure of garbage dumps in 1970 and 1971, and may continue to decline. A computer simulation model indicates that the risk of extirpation over the next 30 yr is small, if the present population parameters continue to prevail. A review an further analysis of the available data brings out the importance of enhancing adult female survival if the population is to recover, and assesses various research needs. In particular, a reliable index of population trend is needed to augment available data on the population. 12 references, 9 figures, 6 tables.

  18. Simulation model of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics in northern San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cloern, J.E.; Cheng, R.T.

    1981-01-01

    A pseudo-two-dimensional model is developed to simulate population dynamics of one dominant phytoplankton species (Skeletonema costatum) in northern San Francisco Bay. The model is formulated around a conceptualization of this estuary as two distinct but coupled subsystems-a deep (10-20 m) central channel and lateral areas with shallow (<2 m) water and slow circulation. Algal growth rates are governed by solar irradiation, temperature and salinity, while population losses are assumed to result from grazing bycalanoid copepods. Consequences of estuarine gravitational circulation are approximated simply by reducing convective-dispersive transport in that section of the channel (null zone) where residual bottom currents are near zero, and lateral mixing is treated as a bulkexchange process between the channel and the shoals. Model output is consistent with the hypothesis that, because planktonic algae are light-limited, shallow areas are the sites of active population growth. Seasonal variation in the location of the null zone (a response to variable river discharge) is responsible for maintaining the spring bloom of neritic diatoms in the seaward reaches of the estuary (San Pablo Bay) and the summer bloom upstream (Suisun Bay). Model output suggests that these spring and summer blooms result from the same general process-establishment of populations over the shoals, where growth rates are rapid, coupled with reduced particulate transport due to estuarine gravitational circulation. It also suggests, however, that the relative importance of physical and biological processes to phytoplankton dynamics is different in San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Finally, the model has helped us determine those processes having sufficient importance to merit further refinement in the next generation of models, and it has given new direction to field studies. ?? 1981 Academic Press Inc. (London) Ltd.

  19. The Algal Revolution.

    PubMed

    Brodie, Juliet; Chan, Cheong Xin; De Clerck, Olivier; Cock, J Mark; Coelho, Susana M; Gachon, Claire; Grossman, Arthur R; Mock, Thomas; Raven, John A; Smith, Alison G; Yoon, Hwan Su; Bhattacharya, Debashish

    2017-08-01

    Algae are (mostly) photosynthetic eukaryotes that occupy multiple branches of the tree of life, and are vital for planet function and health. In this review, we highlight a transformative period in studies of the evolution and functioning of this extraordinary group of organisms and their potential for novel applications, wrought by high-throughput 'omic' and reverse genetic methods. We cover the origin and diversification of algal groups, explore advances in understanding the link between phenotype and genotype, consider algal sex determination, and review progress in understanding the roots of algal multicellularity. Experimental evolution studies to determine how algae evolve in changing environments are highlighted, as is their potential as production platforms for compounds of commercial interest, such as biofuel precursors, nutraceuticals, or therapeutics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Population dynamics of patella vulgata in orkney

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baxter, J. M.

    A population of Patella vulgata has been studied at Dyke-end, in Orkney. The population had a polymodal distribution, within which several year-classes were identified. Spawning occured between January and April each year and the first signs of spat settlement were recorded between August and October. Growth was suppressed over the winter months and increased during the summer, although the mature proportion of the population showed a reduction in growth rate at the onset of gonad development. Annual fluctuations in population density were attributed to spat recruitment and subsequent mortality of animals of < 30 mm lenght; little mortality of lager animals occurred.

  1. Delay driven spatiotemporal chaos in single species population dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Jankovic, Masha; Petrovskii, Sergei; Banerjee, Malay

    2016-08-01

    Questions surrounding the prevalence of complex population dynamics form one of the central themes in ecology. Limit cycles and spatiotemporal chaos are examples that have been widely recognised theoretically, although their importance and applicability to natural populations remains debatable. The ecological processes underlying such dynamics are thought to be numerous, though there seems to be consent as to delayed density dependence being one of the main driving forces. Indeed, time delay is a common feature of many ecological systems and can significantly influence population dynamics. In general, time delays may arise from inter- and intra-specific trophic interactions or population structure, however in the context of single species populations they are linked to more intrinsic biological phenomena such as gestation or resource regeneration. In this paper, we consider theoretically the spatiotemporal dynamics of a single species population using two different mathematical formulations. Firstly, we revisit the diffusive logistic equation in which the per capita growth is a function of some specified delayed argument. We then modify the model by incorporating a spatial convolution which results in a biologically more viable integro-differential model. Using the combination of analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate the effect of time delay on pattern formation. In particular, we show that for sufficiently large values of time delay the system's dynamics are indicative to spatiotemporal chaos. The chaotic dynamics arising in the wake of a travelling population front can be preceded by either a plateau corresponding to dynamical stabilisation of the unstable equilibrium or by periodic oscillations.

  2. Role of finite populations in determining evolutionary dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, Tane S.; Payne, Karl A.; Moseley, L. Leo

    2008-02-01

    The connection between the finite size of an evolving population and its dynamical behavior is examined through analytical and computational studies of a simple model of evolution. The infinite population limit of the model is shown to be governed by a special case of the quasispecies equations. A flat fitness landscape yields identical results for the dynamics of infinite and finite populations. On the other hand, a monotonically increasing fitness landscape shows “epochs” in the dynamics of finite populations that become more pronounced as the rate of mutation decreases. The details of the dynamics are profoundly different for any two simulation runs in that events arising from the stochastic noise in the pseudorandom number sequence are amplified. As the population size is increased or, equivalently, the mutation rate is increased, these epochs become smaller but do not entirely disappear.

  3. Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

    2013-03-21

    We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity.

  4. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.

    PubMed

    Deville, Pierre; Linard, Catherine; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R; Gaughan, Andrea E; Blondel, Vincent D; Tatem, Andrew J

    2014-11-11

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography.

  5. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  6. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    SciTech Connect

    Gavane, Ajinkya S. Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-02

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  7. A simplified model of spatiotemporal population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Puu, T

    1985-09-01

    This paper is an extension of the model of population growth and migration originally developed by H. Hotelling in 1921. This model consists of two ingredients, a logistic growth function and a linear spatial diffusion term. The author notes that the saturation population can be affected by the development of new technology and that improvements in transportation have increased the possibilities for migration. "Basic nonlinearities are introduced by use of a production technology with increasing-decreasing returns to scale. It is demonstrated how industrial takeoffs, population transitions, and agglomerative spatial patterns can emerge by changing the model parameters." excerpt

  8. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  9. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth.

    PubMed

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  10. Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1978-01-01

    The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

  11. Infections of Wolbachia may destabilize mosquito population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Telschow, Arndt; Grziwotz, Florian; Crain, Philip; Miki, Takeshi; Mains, James W; Sugihara, George; Dobson, Stephen L; Hsieh, Chih-Hao

    2017-09-07

    Recent efforts in controlling mosquito-borne diseases focus on biocontrol strategies that incapacitate pathogens inside mosquitoes by altering the mosquito's microbiome. A case in point is the introduction of Wolbachia into natural mosquito populations in order to eliminate Dengue virus. However, whether this strategy can successfully control vector-borne diseases is debated; particularly, how artificial infection affects population dynamics of hosts remains unclear. Here, we show that natural Wolbachia infections are associated with unstable mosquito population dynamics by contrasting Wolbachia-infected versus uninfected cage populations of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). By analyzing weekly data of adult mosquito abundances, we found that the variability of the infected populations is significantly higher than that of the uninfected. The elevated population variability is explained by increased instability in dynamics, as quantified by system nonlinearity (i.e., state-dependence). In addition, predictability of infected populations is substantially lower. A mathematical model analysis suggests that Wolbachia may alter mosquito population dynamics by modifying larval competition of hosts. These results encourage examination for effects of artificial Wolbachia establishment on mosquito populations, because an enhancement of population variability with reduced predictability could pose challenges in management. Our findings have implications for application of microbiome alterations in biocontrol programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Algal Biofuels Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    2009-10-27

    This fact sheet provides information on algal biofuels, which are generating considerable interest around the world. They may represent a sustainable pathway for helping to meet the U.S. biofuel production targets set by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

  13. Harmful Algal Blooms Research

    EPA Science Inventory

    This project represents the Agency’s first effort to unify harmful algal blooms (HABs) research that had been previously carried out in isolation within various laboratories. A unified program is the most efficient way generate useful results for the Agency’s decision...

  14. Harmful Algal Blooms Research

    EPA Science Inventory

    This project represents the Agency’s first effort to unify harmful algal blooms (HABs) research that had been previously carried out in isolation within various laboratories. A unified program is the most efficient way generate useful results for the Agency’s decision...

  15. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

    PubMed Central

    Deville, Pierre; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Blondel, Vincent D.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

  16. Modeling seasonal interactions in the population dynamics of migratory birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Marra, P.P.; Greenberg, Russell; Marra, Peter P.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds requires understanding the relevant biological events that occur during breeding, migratory, and overwintering periods. The few available population models for passerine birds focus on breeding-season events, disregard or oversimplify events during nonbreeding periods, and ignore interactions that occur between periods of the annual cycle. Identifying and explicitly incorporating seasonal interactions into population models for migratory birds could provide important insights about when population limitation actually occurs in the annual cycle. We present a population model for the annual cycle of a migratory bird, based on the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) but more generally applicable, that examines the importance of seasonal interactions by incorporating: (1) density dependence during the breeding and winter seasons, (2) a carry-over effect of winter habitat on breeding-season productivity, and (3) the effects of behavioral dominance on seasonal and habitat specific demographic rates. First, we show that habitat availability on both the wintering and breeding grounds can strongly affect equilibrium population size and sex ratio. Second, sex ratio dynamics, as mediated by behavioral dominance, can affect all other aspects of population dynamics. Third, carry-over effects can be strong, especially when winter events are limiting. These results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds may require more consideration of the seasonal interactions induced by carry-over effects and density dependence in multiple seasons. This model provides a framework in which to explore more fully these seasonal dynamics and a context for estimation of life history parameters.

  17. Africa's population and family planning dynamics.

    PubMed

    Segal, A

    1993-01-01

    The historical and current demography of Africa in this discussion focuses on the context of population policy, contraceptive use, reproductive behavior, polygamy, and economic impacts. Sub-Saharan Africa countries have the highest rate of population growth in the world. 50% are aged under 20 years, and 20% are aged under five years. Urban areas are growing at the fastest rates in the world (5-6% annually). Population density remains low, except for areas where there is high soil fertility. Many African countries recognize the need for population policies. The most important donor to Africa, the World Bank, has pressured African governments to adopt family planning (FP) programs. A major World Bank study has shown that more FP services are desired by African women. Family expenditures for the 1980s for FP were estimated at $100 million annually, of which $53 million was provided by donors. Further expansion in the program is needed. The World Bank targeted contraceptive use at 25% of African married couples. Except for Egypt and North African countries, contraceptive use is around 3-4%. Another perspective on population reduction is to expand programs for child spacing and postnatal nutrition of mothers and infants. There has been a failure to turn health systems around to low-cost preventive health, particularly in rural areas. Infant mortality must be reduced before fertility will decline. Population growth can be slowed by changing the status of African women (high social status and recognition are associated with high fertility), age of marriage, child spacing, agricultural productivity, and nutrition. Demographic data on Africa have only become available during the past 25 years. African demographers are in short supply and require training abroad. Demographic data gaps and reliability problems are offset by the recent availability and quantity of survey data. Historical demography has produced conflicting results. Although some investigators, such as Ester

  18. Population dynamics of Anopheles nuneztovari in Colombia.

    PubMed

    Naranjo-Díaz, Nelson; Sallum, Maria Anice M; Correa, Margarita M

    2016-11-01

    Anopheles nuneztovari is an important Colombian malaria vector widespread on both sides of the Andean Mountains, presenting morphological, behavioral and genetic heterogeneity throughout the country. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the population structure and distribution of An. nuneztovari in Colombia are associated with ecological and physical barriers present in a heterogeneous landscape. Further, differences in behavior were addressed. A total of 5392 specimens of An. nuneztovari were collected. Mitochondrial and nuclear marker analyses detected subdivision among the northwest-west, northeast and east populations. For both markers, isolation by distance (~53%) and isolation by resistance (>30%) were determinants of population genetic differentiation. This suggests that physical barriers, geographical distance and ecological differences on both sides of the Andean Mountains promoted the genetic differentiation and population subdivision of An. nuneztovari in Colombia. This species showed the highest biting activity after 20:00h; indoor and outdoor preferences were found in all localities. These results indicated that the most effective interventions for controlling vector populations on both sides of the Andes need to be region-specific. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Complex population dynamics and the coalescent under neutrality.

    PubMed

    Volz, Erik M

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of the coalescent effective population size N(e) can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between N(e) and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of N(e) such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics.

  20. Synchronization and stability in noisy population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Araujo, Sabrina B L; de Aguiar, M A M

    2008-02-01

    We study the stability and synchronization of predator-prey populations subjected to noise. The system is described by patches of local populations coupled by migration and predation over a neighborhood. When a single patch is considered, random perturbations tend to destabilize the populations, leading to extinction. If the number of patches is small, stabilization in the presence of noise is maintained at the expense of synchronization. As the number of patches increases, both the stability and the synchrony among patches increase. However, a residual asynchrony, large compared with the noise amplitude, seems to persist even in the limit of an infinite number of patches. Therefore, the mechanism of stabilization by asynchrony recently proposed by Abta [Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 098104 (2007)], combining noise, diffusion, and nonlinearities, seems to be more general than first proposed.

  1. Effects of Culling on Mesopredator Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beasley, James C.; Olson, Zachary H.; Beatty, William S.; Dharmarajan, Guha; Rhodes, Olin E.

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor) from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008–2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given the slow

  2. Algal Bloom Detection from HICO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amin, Ruhul; Gould, Richard

    2014-05-01

    Ocean color satellites provide daily, global views of marine bio-optical properties in the upper ocean at various spatial scales. The most productive area of the global ocean is the coastal zone which is heavily impacted by urban and agricultural runoff, transportation, recreation, and oil and gas production. In recent years, harmful algal blooms (HABs) have become one of the serious environmental problems in the coastal areas on a global scale. The global nature of the problem has expanded in its frequency, severity, and extent over the last several decades. Human activities and population increases have contributed to an increase in various toxic and noxious algal species in the coastal regions worldwide. Eutrophication in estuaries and coastal waters is believed to be the major factor causing HABs. In this study, we assess the applicability of the Red Band Difference (RBD) HAB detection algorithm on data from the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO). Our preliminary results show that due to various uncertainties such as atmospheric correction, calibration and possibly also the relatively low signal-to-noise ratio of HICO for fluorescence detection, it is difficult to extract the fluorescence portion of the reflectance spectrum that RBD uses for bloom detection. We propose an improved bloom detection technique for HICO using red and NIR bands. Our results are validated using other space-borne and ground based measurements.

  3. Noise-induced stabilization in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Parker, Matthew; Kamenev, Alex; Meerson, Baruch

    2011-10-28

    We investigate a model in which strong noise in a subpopulation creates a metastable state in an otherwise unstable two-population system. The induced metastable state is vortexlike, and its persistence time grows exponentially with the noise strength. A variety of distinct scaling relations are observed depending on the relative strength of the subpopulation noises.

  4. The 5:1 Neptune Resonance: Dynamics and Population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pike, Rosemary E.; Kavelaars, J. J.; Gladman, Brett; Petit, Jean-Marc; Alexandersen, Mike

    2014-11-01

    Based on 4 objects detected with semi-major axes near the 5:1 external resonance with Neptune, we estimate a substantial and previously unrecognized population of objects, perhaps more significant than the 3:2 (Plutino) resonance population. These external resonances are largely unexplored in both observations and dynamical simulations. However, understanding the characteristics and trapping history for objects in these populations is critical for constraining the dynamical history of the solar system. The 4 objects detected in the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) were classified using dynamical integrations. Three are resonant, and the last appears to be a resonant drop-off. The 3 objects are taken to be representative of the steady-state population, so by using these detections and the CFEPS characterization (pointings and detection limits) we calculate a population estimate for this resonance at ~3000(+5000 -2000) with Hg<8. This is at least as large as the Plutinos (3:2 resonance) at 90% confidence. The small number of detected objects results in such a large population estimate due to the numerous biases against detecting objects with semimajor axes at 88AU. Based on the dynamical behavior of the known objects, the trapping mechanism for the 5:1 resonance appears to be resonance sticking from the scattering objects. The long resonance lifetimes of some dynamical clones suggests that a steady state population could be maintained through periodic sticking.

  5. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

    PubMed Central

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-01-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  6. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-07-07

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.

  7. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  8. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Treesearch

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  9. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  10. Explaining "Noise" as Environmental Variations in Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Ginn, Timothy R.; Loge, Frank J.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2007-03-01

    The impacts of human activities on our own and other populations on the plant are making news at an alarming pace. Global warming, ocean and freshwater contamination and acidification, deforestation, habitat destruction and incursion, and in general a burgeoning human population are associated with a complete spectrum of changes to the dynamics of populations. Effects on songbirds, insects, coral reefs, ocean mammals, anadromous fishes, just to name a few, and humans, have been linked to human industry and population growth. The linkage, however, remains often ghostly and often tenuous at best, because of the difficulty in quantitatively combining ecological processes with environmental fate and transport processes. Establishing quantitative tools, that is, models, for the combined dynamics of populations and environmental chemical/thermal things is needed. This truly interdisciplinary challenge is briefly reviewed, and two approaches to integrating chemical and biological intermingling are addressed in the context of salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest.

  11. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  12. Optimal birth control of population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Chan, W L; Guo, B Z

    1989-11-01

    The authors studied optimal birth control policies for an age-structured population of McKendrick type which is a distributed parameter system involving 1st order partial differential equations with nonlocal bilinear boundary control. The functional analytic approach of Dubovitskii and Milyutin is adopted in the investigation. Maximum principles for problems with a free end condition and fixed final horizon are developed, and the time optimal control problems, the problem with target sets, and infinite planning horizon case are investigated.

  13. Reconstruction of cell population dynamics using CFSE

    PubMed Central

    Yates, Andrew; Chan, Cliburn; Strid, Jessica; Moon, Simon; Callard, Robin; George, Andrew JT; Stark, Jaroslav

    2007-01-01

    Background Quantifying cell division and death is central to many studies in the biological sciences. The fluorescent dye CFSE allows the tracking of cell division in vitro and in vivo and provides a rich source of information with which to test models of cell kinetics. Cell division and death have a stochastic component at the single-cell level, and the probabilities of these occurring in any given time interval may also undergo systematic variation at a population level. This gives rise to heterogeneity in proliferating cell populations. Branching processes provide a natural means of describing this behaviour. Results We present a likelihood-based method for estimating the parameters of branching process models of cell kinetics using CFSE-labeling experiments, and demonstrate its validity using synthetic and experimental datasets. Performing inference and model comparison with real CFSE data presents some statistical problems and we suggest methods of dealing with them. Conclusion The approach we describe here can be used to recover the (potentially variable) division and death rates of any cell population for which division tracking information is available. PMID:17565685

  14. Molecular characterization of microbial population dynamics during sildenafil citrate degradation.

    PubMed

    De Felice, Bruna; Argenziano, Carolina; Guida, Marco; Trifuoggi, Marco; Russo, Francesca; Condorelli, Valerio; Inglese, Mafalda

    2009-02-01

    Little is known about pharmaceutical and personal care products pollutants (PPCPs), but there is a growing interest in how they might impact the environment and microbial communities. The widespread use of Viagra (sildenafil citrate) has attracted great attention because of the high usage rate, the unpredictable disposal and the unknown potential effects on wildlife and the environment. Until now information regarding the impact of Viagra on microbial community in water environment has not been reported. In this research, for the first time, the genetic profile of the microbial community, developing in a Viagra polluted water environment, was evaluated by means of the 16S and 18S rRNA genes, for bacteria and fungi, respectively, amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and separated using the denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) technique. The DGGE results revealed a complex microbial community structure with most of the population persisting throughout the experimental period. DNA sequences from bands observed in the different denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profiles exhibited the highest degree of identity to uncultured bacteria and fungi found previously mainly in polluted environmental and treating bioreactors. Biotransformation ability of sildenafil citrate by the microbial pool was studied and the capability of these microorganisms to detoxify a polluted water ecosystem was assessed. The bacterial and fungal population was able to degrade sildenafil citrate entirely. Additionally, assays conducted on Daphnia magna, algal growth inhibition assay and cell viability determination on HepG2 human cells showed that biotransformation products obtained from the bacterial growth was not toxic. The higher removal efficiency for sildenafil citrate and the lack of toxicity by the biotransformation products obtained showed that the microbial community identified here represented a composite population that might have biotechnological relevance to

  15. Life history and population dynamics of an estuarine amphipod, Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aravind, Nisha P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K. K. C.; Achuthankutty, C. T.

    2007-08-01

    The life cycle of the gammarid amphipod Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton from the Cochin estuary, south west coast of India, has been studied for the first time under laboratory conditions. Amphipods, especially gammarids, are used as potential live feed in fish culture. Eriopisa chilkensis can withstand wide variations in salinity (5-35) and temperature (27.5-34 °C) of the medium. It was cultured in un-aerated finger bowls using dried algal matter ( Chara sp.) as food. The life span of females was found to be higher (maximum: 220 days) than males (maximum: 175 days). Females were iteroparous and attained sexual maturity within 39.3 ± 6 days (mean ± SD), whereas males matured within 26.5 ± 5.6 days. Number of broods in a life span ranged from 4 to 7. The maximum number of juveniles produced in a single brood was 29 and the maximum number of juveniles produced by a single female over a lifetime was 139. The duration of embryonic development was 12 ± 2.45 days. The population dynamics of E. chilkensis was studied based on monthly sampling, over one year from the mangrove swamps of Puduvypin. It occurred in varying densities in the epifaunal community (21-1583 ind. m -2). Extrapolation of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle.

  16. Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii.

    PubMed

    Salvidio, Sebastiano

    2007-05-01

    Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993-2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.

  17. Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvidio, Sebastiano

    2007-05-01

    Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993 2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.

  18. Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses

    PubMed Central

    Röther, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.

    2014-01-01

    In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223

  19. Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

    PubMed Central

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

  20. A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Myerscough, Mary R.; Barron, Andrew B.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  1. Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

    PubMed Central

    Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-01-01

    Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

  2. A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

    2011-04-18

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

  3. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families.

    PubMed

    Mason, Andrew W; Lee, Ronald D; Lee, Sang-Hyop

    2010-07-01

    Upward intergenerational flows - from the working ages to old age - are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages - the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are

  4. Population dynamics and the ecological stability of obligate pollination mutualisms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2001-01-01

    Mutualistic interactions almost always produce both costs and benefits for each of the interacting species. It is the difference between gross benefits and costs that determines the net benefit and the per-capita effect on each of the interacting populations. For example, the net benefit of obligate pollinators, such as yucca and senita moths, to plants is determined by the difference between the number of ovules fertilized from moth pollination and the number of ovules eaten by the pollinator's larvae. It is clear that if pollinator populations are large, then, because many eggs are laid, costs to plants are large, whereas, if pollinator populations are small, gross benefits are low due to lack of pollination. Even though the size and dynamics of the pollinator population are likely to be crucial, their importance has been neglected in the investigation of mechanisms, such as selective fruit abortion, that can limit costs and increase net benefits. Here, we suggest that both the population size and dynamics of pollinators are important in determining the net benefits to plants, and that fruit abortion can significantly affect these. We develop a model of mutualism between populations of plants and their pollinating seed-predators to explore the ecological consequences of fruit abortion on pollinator population dynamics and the net effect on plants. We demonstrate that the benefit to a plant population is unimodal as a function of pollinator abundance, relative to the abundance of flowers. Both selective abortion of fruit with eggs and random abortion of fruit, without reference to whether they have eggs or not, can limit pollinator population size. This can increase the net benefits to the plant population by limiting the number of eggs laid, if the pollination rate remains high. However, fruit abortion can possibly destabilize the pollinator population, with negative consequences for the plant population.

  5. Transient population dynamics: Relations to life history and initial population state

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, D.N.; Grand, J.B.; Zinner, B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    2005-01-01

    Most environments are variable and disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, fires) can lead to substantial changes in a population's state (i.e., age, stage, or size distribution). In these situations, the long-term (i.e., asymptotic) measure of population growth rate (??1) may inaccurately represent population growth in the short-term. Thus, we calculated the short-term (i.e., transient) population growth rate and its sensitivity to changes in the life-cycle parameters for three bird and three mammal species with widely varying life histories. Further, we performed these calculations for initial population states that spanned the entire range of possibilities. Variation in a population's initial net reproductive value largely explained the variation in transient growth rates and their sensitivities to changes in life-cycle parameters (all AICc ??? 6.67 units better than the null model, all R2 ??? 0.55). Additionally, the transient fertility and adult survival sensitivities tended to increase with the initial net reproductive value of the population, whereas the sub-adult survival sensitivity decreased. Transient population dynamics of long-lived, slow reproducing species were more variable and more different than asymptotic dynamics than they were for short-lived, fast reproducing species. Because ??1 can be a biased estimate of the actual growth rate in the short-term (e.g., 19% difference), conservation and wildlife biologists should consider transient dynamics when developing management plans that could affect a population's state, or whenever population state could be unstable.

  6. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ronald D.; Lee, Sang-Hyop

    2015-01-01

    Upward intergenerational flows – from the working ages to old age – are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages – the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are

  7. National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrell, John; Sarisky-Reed, Valerie

    2010-05-01

    The framework for National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap was constructed at the Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap Workshop, held December 9-10, 2008, at the University of Maryland-College Park. The Workshop was organized by the Biomass Program to discuss and identify the critical challenges currently hindering the development of a domestic, commercial-scale algal biofuels industry. This Roadmap presents information from a scientific, economic, and policy perspectives that can support and guide RD&D investment in algal biofuels. While addressing the potential economic and environmental benefits of using algal biomass for the production of liquid transportation fuels, the Roadmap describes the current status of algae RD&D. In doing so, it lays the groundwork for identifying challenges that likely need to be overcome for algal biomass to be used in the production of economically viable biofuels.

  8. Population dynamics of white-winged scoters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Brown, P.W.; Kehoe, F.P.; Houston, C.S.

    1997-01-01

    A significant (P < 0.01) decline between 1961 and 1993 in ratio of harvested young per adult in the Atlantic Flyway (age ration) of white-winged scoters (Melanitta fusca) led us to examine annual survival rates and harvest of this species. Compared to waterfowl with similar life histories, black scoters (M. nigra) and surf scoters (M. perspicillata), the decline in age ratios of white-winged scoter age ratios was not significantly different (P = 0.11). Adult females banded at Redberry Lake, Saskatchewan that winter along both coasts, had high annual survival rates (0.773 plus or minus 0.0176 [SE]). High harvest in the Atlantic Flyway was not followed by an increase in production (age ratios) the following year or 2, i.e., there was no short-term rebound in recruitment by the population. Harvest of white-winged scoters in the Atlantic Flyway was explained by the age ratio in the fall flight and by hunter effort.

  9. Unstable dynamics and population limitation in mountain hares.

    PubMed

    Newey, Scott; Dahl, Fredrik; Willebrand, Tomas; Thirgood, Simon

    2007-11-01

    The regular large-scale population fluctuations that characterize many species of northern vertebrates have fascinated ecologists since the time of Charles Elton. There is still, however, no clear consensus on what drives these fluctuations. Throughout their circumpolar distribution, mountain hares Lepus timidus show regular and at times dramatic changes in density. There are distinct differences in the nature, amplitude and periodicity of these fluctuations between regions and the reasons for these population fluctuations and the geographic differences remain largely unknown. In this review we synthesize knowledge on the factors that limit or regulate mountain hare populations across their range in an attempt to identify the drivers of unstable dynamics. Current knowledge of mountain hare population dynamics indicates that trophic interactions--either predator-prey or host-parasite--appear to be the major factor limiting populations and these interactions may contribute to the observed unstable dynamics. There is correlative and experimental evidence that some mountain hare populations in Fennoscandia are limited by predation and that predation may link hare and grouse cycles to microtine cycles. Predation is unlikely to be important in mountain hare populations in Scotland as most hares occur on sporting estates where predators are controlled, but this hypothesis remains to be experimentally tested. There is, however, emerging experimental evidence that some Scottish mountain hare populations are limited by parasites and that host-parasite interactions contribute to unstable dynamics. By contrast, there is little evidence from Fennoscandia that parasitism is of any importance to mountain hare population dynamics, although disease may cause periodic declines. Although severe weather and food limitation may interact to cause periodic high winter mortality there is little evidence that food availability limits mountain hare populations. There is a paucity of

  10. The influence of a toxic cyanobacterial bloom and water hydrology on algal populations and macroinvertebrate abundance in the upper littoral zone of Lake Krugersdrift, South Africa.

    PubMed

    Oberholster, Paul J; Botha, Anna-Maria; Ashton, Peter J

    2009-01-01

    The biological interactions and the physical and chemical properties of the littoral zone of Lake Krugersdrift were studied for a 4-month period when a dense, toxic cyanobacterial bloom dominated by Microcystis aeruginosa was present in the main lake basin. The presence of a toxic strain of M. aeruginosa was confirmed through the use of ELISA and molecular markers that detect the presence of the mcyB and mcyD genes of the mcy gene cluster that synthesizes microcystin. An increase in Microcystis toxicity at sites dominated by the cyanobacterial scum was accompanied by an increase in total abundance of the macroinvertebrate families Hirudinae, Chironomidae, and Tubificidae. Sites located away from the cyanobacterial scum had a lower abundance but a higher diversity of macroinvertebrates. The water quality under the Microcystis scum was characterized by low pH values, low concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and lower total alkalinity values. The periphytic alga Ulothrix zonata was absent in areas dominated by the cyanobacterial scum, possibly as a result of overshadowing by the scum or direct toxic allelopathic effects on growth and photosynthesis. The diatom Diatoma vulgare dominated the benthic algal flora beneath the cyanobacterial scum.

  11. A general method for modeling population dynamics and its applications.

    PubMed

    Shestopaloff, Yuri K

    2013-12-01

    Studying populations, be it a microbe colony or mankind, is important for understanding how complex systems evolve and exist. Such knowledge also often provides insights into evolution, history and different aspects of human life. By and large, populations' prosperity and decline is about transformation of certain resources into quantity and other characteristics of populations through growth, replication, expansion and acquisition of resources. We introduce a general model of population change, applicable to different types of populations, which interconnects numerous factors influencing population dynamics, such as nutrient influx and nutrient consumption, reproduction period, reproduction rate, etc. It is also possible to take into account specific growth features of individual organisms. We considered two recently discovered distinct growth scenarios: first, when organisms do not change their grown mass regardless of nutrients availability, and the second when organisms can reduce their grown mass by several times in a nutritionally poor environment. We found that nutrient supply and reproduction period are two major factors influencing the shape of population growth curves. There is also a difference in population dynamics between these two groups. Organisms belonging to the second group are significantly more adaptive to reduction of nutrients and far more resistant to extinction. Also, such organisms have substantially more frequent and lesser in amplitude fluctuations of population quantity for the same periodic nutrient supply (compared to the first group). Proposed model allows adequately describing virtually any possible growth scenario, including complex ones with periodic and irregular nutrient supply and other changing parameters, which present approaches cannot do.

  12. Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

    2016-02-01

    The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

  13. Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

    2008-01-01

    Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

  14. Advanced Algal Systems Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    2016-06-01

    Research and development (R&D) on advanced algal biofuels and bioproducts presents an opportunity to sustainably expand biomass resource potential in the United States. The Bioenergy Technologies Office’s (BETO’s) Advanced Algal Systems Program is carrying out a long-term, applied R&D strategy to lower the costs of algal biofuel production by working with partners to develop revolutionary technologies and conduct crosscutting analyses to better understand the potential

  15. Gardnerella vaginalis population dynamics in bacterial vaginosis.

    PubMed

    Hilbert, D W; Schuyler, J A; Adelson, M E; Mordechai, E; Sobel, J D; Gygax, S E

    2017-02-14

    Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is the leading cause of vaginal discharge and is associated with the facultative Gram-variable bacterium Gardnerella vaginalis, whose population structure consists of four clades. Our goal was to determine if these clades differ with regard to abundance during BV. We performed a short-term longitudinal study of BV. Patients were evaluated according to the Amsel criteria and Nugent scoring at initial diagnosis, immediately after treatment and at a 40- to 45-day follow-up visit. G. vaginalis clade abundance was determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reactions (qPCRs). Among all specimens, the abundance of clades 1 and 4 were higher than that of clades 2 and 3 (P < 0.001). In general, the abundance of each clade increased with the degree of vaginal dysbiosis, as determined by the Nugent score and was greater in women with Amsel 4 compared with those with Amsel 0. Only clade 1 abundance was greater when Amsel 0 or 1 specimens were compared with Amsel 2 or 3 specimens (P < 0.01). Following antimicrobial treatment, abundance of clades 1 (P < 0.001) and 4 (P < 0.05) decreased regardless of the clinical and microbiological outcome, whereas clade 2 only decreased in women who had a sustained treatment response for 40-45 days (P < 0.01). Recurrent BV was characterized by post-treatment increases of clade 1 and 2 (P < 0.01). Clades 1 and 4 predominate in vaginal specimens. Clade abundance differs with regard to the Nugent score, the Amsel criteria, and response to therapy and BV recurrence.

  16. Raman spectroscopy for the characterization of algal cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samek, Ota; Jonáš, Alexandr; Pilát, Zdeněk; Zemánek, Pavel; Nedbal, Ladislav; Tříska, Jan; Kotas, Petr; Trtílek, Martin

    2010-12-01

    Raman spectroscopy can elucidate fundamental questions about intercellular variability and what governs it. Moreover, knowing the metabolic response on single cell level this can significantly contribute to the study and use of microalgae in systems biology and biofuel technology. Raman spectroscopy is capable to measure nutrient dynamics and metabolism in vivo, in real-time, label free making it possible to monitor/evaluate population variability. Also, degree of unsaturation of the algae oil (iodine value) can be measured using Raman spectra obtained from single microalgae. The iodine value is the determination of the amount of unsaturation contained in fatty acids (in the form of double bonds). Here we demonstrate the capacity of the spatially resolved Raman microspectroscopy to determine the effective iodine value in lipid storage bodies of individual living algal cells. We employed the characteristic peaks in the Raman scattering spectra at 1,656 cm-1 (cis C=C stretching mode) and 1,445 cm-1 (CH2 scissoring mode) as the markers defining the ratio of unsaturated-to-saturated carbon-carbon bonds of the fatty acids in the algal lipids.

  17. Generation time and temporal scaling of bird population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Saether, Bernt-Erik; Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Weimerskirch, Henri; Lillegård, Magnar; Altwegg, Res; Becker, Peter H; Bregnballe, Thomas; Brommer, Jon E; McCleery, Robin H; Merilä, Juha; Nyholm, Erik; Rendell, Wallace; Robertson, Raleigh R; Tryjanowski, Piotr; Visser, Marcel E

    2005-07-07

    Theoretical studies have shown that variation in density regulation strongly influences population dynamics, yet our understanding of factors influencing the strength of density dependence in natural populations still is limited. Consequently, few general hypotheses have been advanced to explain the large differences between species in the magnitude of population fluctuations. One reason for this is that the detection of density regulation in population time series is complicated by time lags induced by the life history of species that make it difficult to separate the relative contributions of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to the population dynamics. Here we use population time series for 23 bird species to estimate parameters of a stochastic density-dependent age-structured model. We show that both the strength of total density dependence in the life history and the magnitude of environmental stochasticity, including transient fluctuations in age structure, increase with generation time. These results indicate that the relationships between demographic and life-history traits in birds translate into distinct population dynamical patterns that are apparent only on a scale of generations.

  18. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    PubMed

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Locally dispersing populations in heterogeneous dynamic landscapes with spatiotemporal correlations. II. Habitat driven by voter dynamics.

    PubMed

    Hiebeler, David E; Hill, Jack L

    2016-10-21

    We examine a spatially explicit population model on a dynamic landscape with suitable and unsuitable habitat driven by voter or contagion dynamics. We consider four cases, consisting of all combinations of local and global interactions for both population dispersal and habitat dynamics. For both local and global population dispersal, using local habitat dynamics always increases population density relative to the case with global habitat dynamics, due to the resulting segregation of habitat turnover, decrease in effective habitat turnover rate, and presence of stable habitat corridors. With global habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal exhibits lower density than one with global dispersal due to local crowding as well as frequent disturbance due to habitat transitions. On the other hand, with local habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal can exploit suitable habitat patches and use dynamic corridors to colonize new regions. The latter effect is not seen with static landscapes, where clustered habitat can lead to the isolation of suitable patches due to surrounding unsuitable habitat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

  1. Real-time bioluminescent tracking of cellular population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Close, Dan; Xu, Tingting; Ripp, Steven; Sayler, Gary

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  2. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Close, Dan; Xu, Tingling; Ripp, Steven; Sayler, Gary

    2015-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods. PMID:24166372

  3. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Close, Dan; Sayler, Gary Steven; Xu, Tingting; Ripp, Steven Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  4. Spatially structured population dynamics in feral oilseed rape.

    PubMed Central

    Crawley, Michael J.; Brown, Susan L.

    2004-01-01

    We studied the population dynamics of feral oilseed rape (Brassica napus) for 10 years (1993-2002) in 3658 adjacent permanent 100 m quadrats in the verges of the M25 motorway around London, UK. The aim was to determine the relative importance of different factors affecting the observed temporal patterns of population dynamics and their spatial correlations. A wide range of population dynamics was observed (downward or upward trends, cycles, local extinctions and recolonizations), but overall the populations were not self-replacing (lambda < 1). Many quadrats remained unoccupied throughout the study period, but a few were occupied at high densities for all 10 years. Most quadrats showed transient oilseed rape populations, lasting 1-4 years. There were strong spatial patterns in mean population density, associated with soil conditions and the successional age of the plant community dominating the verge, and these large-scale spatial patterns were highly consistent from year to year. The importance of seed spilled from trucks in transit to the processing plant at Erith in Kent was confirmed: rape populations were significantly higher on the 'to Erith' verge than the 'from Erith' verge (overall mean 2.83-fold greater stem density). Quadrats in which lambda > 1 were much more frequent in the 'to Erith' verge, indicating that seed immigration can give the spurious impression of self-replacing population dynamics in time-series analysis. There was little evidence of a pervasive Moran effect, and climatic forcing did not produce widespread large-scale synchrony in population dynamics for the motorway as a whole; just 23% of quadrats had significant rank correlations with the mean time-series. There was, however, significant local spatial synchrony of population dynamics, apparently associated with soil disturbance and seed input. This study draws attention to the possibility that different processes may impose population synchrony at different scales. We hypothesize that

  5. Dynamical quorum sensing and clustering dynamics in a population of spatially distributed active rotators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Maeyama, Satomi

    2013-02-01

    A model of clustering dynamics is proposed for a population of spatially distributed active rotators. A transition from excitable to oscillatory dynamics is induced by the increase of the local density of active rotators. It is interpreted as dynamical quorum sensing. In the oscillation regime, phase waves propagate without decay, which generates an effectively long-range interaction in the clustering dynamics. The clustering process becomes facilitated and only one dominant cluster appears rapidly as a result of the dynamical quorum sensing. An exact localized solution is found to a simplified model equation, and the competitive dynamics between two localized states is studied numerically.

  6. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A; Urban, Marie L; Rose, Amy N; Coleman, Phil R; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  7. Dynamics of Sequence -Discrete Bacterial Populations Inferred Using Metagenomes

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, Sarah; Bendall, Matthew; Kang, Dongwan; Froula, Jeff; Egan, Rob; Chan, Leong-Keat; Tringe, Susannah; McMahon, Katherine; Malmstrom, Rex

    2014-03-14

    From a multi-year metagenomic time series of two dissimilar Wisconsin lakes we have assembled dozens of genomes using a novel approach that bins contigs into distinct genome based on sequence composition, e.g. kmer frequencies, and contig coverage patterns at various times points. Next, we investigated how these genomes, which represent sequence-discrete bacterial populations, evolved over time and used the time series to discover the population dynamics. For example, we explored changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies as well as patterns of gene gain and loss in multiple populations. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in some populations during the course of this study, suggesting these populations may have experienced genome-wide selective sweeps. This represents the first direct, time-resolved observations of periodic selection in natural populations, a key process predicted by the ecotype model of bacterial diversification.

  8. A mathematical model of population dynamics for Batesian mimicry system.

    PubMed

    Seno, Hiromi; Kohno, Takahiro

    2012-01-01

    We analyse a mathematical model of the population dynamics among a mimic, a corresponding model, and their common predator populations. Predator changes its search-and-attack probability by forming and losing its search image. It cannot distinguish the mimic from the model. Once a predator eats a model individual, it comes to omit both the model and the mimic species from its diet menu. If a predator eats a mimic individual, it comes to increase the search-and-attack probability for both model and mimic. The predator may lose the repulsive/attractive search image with a probability per day. By analysing our model, we can derive the mathematical condition for the persistence of model and mimic populations, and then get the result that the condition for the persistence of model population does not depend on the mimic population size, while the condition for the persistence of mimic population does depend the predator's memory of search image.

  9. Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

    PubMed Central

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

  10. Asynchronous population dynamics of Siberian lemmings across the Palaearctic tundra.

    PubMed

    Erlinge, Sam; Danell, Kjell; Frodin, Peter; Hasselquist, Dennis; Nilsson, Patric; Olofsson, Eva-Britt; Svensson, Mikael

    1999-06-01

    The synchrony of Siberian lemming (Lemmus sibiricus L.) population dynamics was investigated during a ship-borne expedition along the Palaearctic tundra coast in the summer of 1994. On 12 sites along the coast from the Kola Peninsula to Wrangel Island, relative densities of lemmings were recorded using a standardised snap-trapping programme. The phase position of the lemming cycle in each of the studied populations was determined based on current density estimates, signs of previous density and the age profile of each population (ageing based on eye lens mass). In addition, dendrochronological methods were used to determine when the last peak in the density of microtine populations occurred at each site. The examined lemming populations were in different phases of the lemming cycle. Some populations were in the peak phase, as indicated by high current densities, an age profile in which older individuals were well represented, and signs of high previous density (abundant old lemming faeces). Other populations were in the decline phase, as reflected in a moderate current density, a predominance of older individuals and signs of high previous density. Populations in the low phase had an extremely low current density and showed signs of high previous density, while populations in the increase phase had a moderate current density, a predominance of younger individuals and showed signs of low previous density. The results of phase determinations based on dendrochronological methods support the findings based on lemming demography. Recent Russian studies carried out on some of the sites also agreed with our phase determination results. Thus, on a regional scale (across the whole Palaearctic tundra), the population dynamics of Siberian lemmings can be considered asynchronous. However, sites situated adjacent to each other were often phase synchronous, suggesting a more fine-grained pattern of dynamics with synchrony over distances as long as 1000 km or so, e.g. the Yamal

  11. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    PubMed

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  12. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t < t1 = κb) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t_1\\lt t\\lt t_2\\propto \\kappa_a and for which θ0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  13. Algal biofuels from wastewater treatment high rate algal ponds.

    PubMed

    Craggs, R J; Heubeck, S; Lundquist, T J; Benemann, J R

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the potential of algae biofuel production in conjunction with wastewater treatment. Current technology for algal wastewater treatment uses facultative ponds, however, these ponds have low productivity (∼10 tonnes/ha.y), are not amenable to cultivating single algal species, require chemical flocculation or other expensive processes for algal harvest, and do not provide consistent nutrient removal. Shallow, paddlewheel-mixed high rate algal ponds (HRAPs) have much higher productivities (∼30 tonnes/ha.y) and promote bioflocculation settling which may provide low-cost algal harvest. Moreover, HRAP algae are carbon-limited and daytime addition of CO(2) has, under suitable climatic conditions, the potential to double production (to ∼60 tonnes/ha.y), improve bioflocculation algal harvest, and enhance wastewater nutrient removal. Algae biofuels (e.g. biogas, ethanol, biodiesel and crude bio-oil), could be produced from the algae harvested from wastewater HRAPs, The wastewater treatment function would cover the capital and operation costs of algal production, with biofuel and recovered nutrient fertilizer being by-products. Greenhouse gas abatement results from both the production of the biofuels and the savings in energy consumption compared to electromechanical treatment processes. However, to achieve these benefits, further research is required, particularly the large-scale demonstration of wastewater treatment HRAP algal production and harvest.

  14. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

  15. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    PubMed

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  16. Radial propagation in population dynamics with density-dependent diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngamsaad, Waipot

    2014-01-01

    Population dynamics that evolve in a radial symmetric geometry are investigated. The nonlinear reaction-diffusion model, which depends on population density, is employed as the governing equation for this system. The approximate analytical solution to this equation is found. It shows that the population density evolves from the initial state and propagates in a traveling-wave-like manner for a long-time scale. If the distance is insufficiently long, the curvature has an ineluctable influence on the density profile and front speed. In comparison, the analytical solution is in agreement with the numerical solution.

  17. Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

    SciTech Connect

    Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim

    2016-06-08

    We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

  18. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    PubMed

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. [Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

    PubMed

    Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

    2014-09-01

    Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

  20. Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

    2012-01-01

    The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (σ = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

  1. Population dynamic theory of size-dependent cannibalism.

    PubMed Central

    Claessen, David; de Roos, André M.; Persson, Lennart

    2004-01-01

    Cannibalism is characterized by four aspects: killing victims, gaining energy from victims, size-dependent interactions and intraspecific competition. In this review of mathematical models of cannibalistic populations, we relate the predicted population dynamic consequences of cannibalism to its four defining aspects. We distinguish five classes of effects of cannibalism: (i) regulation of population size; (ii) destabilization resulting in population cycles or chaos; (iii) stabilization by damping population cycles caused by other interactions; (iv) bistability such that, depending on the initial conditions, the population converges to one of two possible stable states; and (v) modification of the population size structure. The same effects of cannibalism may be caused by different combinations of aspects of cannibalism. By contrast, the same combination of aspects may lead to different effects. For particular cannibalistic species, the consequences of cannibalism will depend on the presence and details of the four defining aspects. Empirical evidence for the emerged theory of cannibalism is discussed briefly. The implications of the described dynamic effects of cannibalism are discussed in the context of community structure, making a comparison with the community effects of intraguild predation. PMID:15101690

  2. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  3. Population Dynamics of Southern Pine Beetle in Forest Landscapes

    Treesearch

    Andrew Birt

    2011-01-01

    Southern pine beetle (SPB) is an important pest of Southeastern United States pine forests. Periodic regional outbreaks are characterized by localized areas of tree mortality (infestations) surrounded by areas with little or no damage. Ultimately, this spatiotemporal pattern of tree mortality is driven by the dynamics of SPB populations—more specifically, by rates of...

  4. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  5. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.

    2008-06-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, η Car, ζ Pup, γ2 Velorum and WR 140.

  6. Noise can prevent onset of chaos in spatiotemporal population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrovskii, S.; Morozov, A.; Malchow, H.; Sieber, M.

    2010-11-01

    Many theoretical approaches predict the dynamics of interacting populations to be chaotic but that has very rarely been observed in ecological data. It has therefore risen a question about factors that can prevent the onset of chaos by, for instance, making the population fluctuations synchronized over the whole habitat. One such factor is stochasticity. The so-called Moran effect predicts that a spatially correlated noise can synchronize the local population dynamics in a spatially discrete system, thus preventing the onset of spatiotemporal chaos. On the whole, however, the issue of noise has remained controversial and insufficiently understood. In particular, a well-built nonspatial theory infers that noise enhances chaos by making the system more sensitive to the initial conditions. In this paper, we address the problem of the interplay between deterministic dynamics and noise by considering a spatially explicit predator-prey system where some parameters are affected by noise. Our findings are rather counter-intuitive. We show that a small noise (i.e. preserving the deterministic skeleton) can indeed synchronize the population oscillations throughout space and hence keep the dynamics regular, but the dependence of the chaos prevention probability on the noise intensity is of resonance type. Once chaos has developed, it appears to be stable with respect to a small noise but it can be suppressed by a large noise. Finally, we show that our results are in a good qualitative agreement with some available field data.

  7. Equilibrium solutions for microscopic stochastic systems in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lachowicz, Mirosław; Ryabukha, Tatiana

    2013-06-01

    The present paper deals with the problem of existence of equilibrium solutions of equations describing the general population dynamics at the microscopic level of modified Liouville equation (individually--based model) corresponding to a Markov jump process. We show the existence of factorized equilibrium solutions and discuss uniqueness. The conditions guaranteeing uniqueness or non-uniqueness are proposed under the assumption of periodic structures.

  8. Bacterial associations reveal spatial population dynamics in Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes

    PubMed Central

    Buck, Moritz; Nilsson, Louise K. J.; Brunius, Carl; Dabiré, Roch K.; Hopkins, Richard; Terenius, Olle

    2016-01-01

    The intolerable burden of malaria has for too long plagued humanity and the prospect of eradicating malaria is an optimistic, but reachable, target in the 21st century. However, extensive knowledge is needed about the spatial structure of mosquito populations in order to develop effective interventions against malaria transmission. We hypothesized that the microbiota associated with a mosquito reflects acquisition of bacteria in different environments. By analyzing the whole-body bacterial flora of An. gambiae mosquitoes from Burkina Faso by 16 S amplicon sequencing, we found that the different environments gave each mosquito a specific bacterial profile. In addition, the bacterial profiles provided precise and predicting information on the spatial dynamics of the mosquito population as a whole and showed that the mosquitoes formed clear local populations within a meta-population network. We believe that using microbiotas as proxies for population structures will greatly aid improving the performance of vector interventions around the world. PMID:26960555

  9. Stationary stability for evolutionary dynamics in finite populations

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, Marc; Fryer, Dashiell

    2016-08-25

    Here, we demonstrate a vast expansion of the theory of evolutionary stability to finite populations with mutation, connecting the theory of the stationary distribution of the Moran process with the Lyapunov theory of evolutionary stability. We define the notion of stationary stability for the Moran process with mutation and generalizations, as well as a generalized notion of evolutionary stability that includes mutation called an incentive stable state (ISS) candidate. For sufficiently large populations, extrema of the stationary distribution are ISS candidates and we give a family of Lyapunov quantities that are locally minimized at the stationary extrema and at ISS candidates. In various examples, including for the Moran andWright–Fisher processes, we show that the local maxima of the stationary distribution capture the traditionally-defined evolutionarily stable states. The classical stability theory of the replicator dynamic is recovered in the large population limit. Finally we include descriptions of possible extensions to populations of variable size and populations evolving on graphs.

  10. A seasnake's colour affects its susceptibility to algal fouling.

    PubMed

    Shine, R; Brischoux, F; Pile, A J

    2010-08-22

    Evolutionary transitions from terrestrial to aquatic life modify selective forces on an animal's coloration. For example, light penetrates differently through water than air, and a new suite of predators and visual backgrounds changes the targets of selection. We suggest that an aquatic animal's coloration may also affect its susceptibility to algal fouling. In a colour-polymorphic field population of seasnakes (Emydocephalus annulatus) in New Caledonia, black individuals supported higher algal cover than did banded conspecifics. In experimental tests, black snake models (plastic tubes) accumulated more algae than did banded models. Algal cover substantially reduced snake activity (in the field) and swimming speeds (in the laboratory). Effects of algal cover on a snake's hydrodynamic efficiency and/or its rate of cutaneous gas exchange thus may impose selection on the colours of aquatic organisms.

  11. Enhancement of algal growth and productivity by grazing zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Porter, K G

    1976-06-25

    Colonies of the common planktonic green alga, Sphaerocystis schroeteri, are only partially disrupted and assimilated by Daphnia magna, a natural predator. The Daphnia break up the outer protective gelatinous sheath that surrounds Sphaerocystis colonies, but most of the algal cells emerge from Daphnia guts intact and in viable condition. During gut passage, these viable cells take up nutrients, such as phosphorus, both from algal remains and from Daphnia metabolites. This nutrient supply stimulates algal carbon fixation and cell division. Enhanced algal growth, observed after gut passage, can compensate for the minor losses to the population caused by grazing. Nutrients regenerated by grazers may produce the summer bloom of gelatinous green algae during the seasonal succession of lake phytoplankton.

  12. Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

    2002-01-01

    We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

  13. Understanding Diabetes Population Dynamics Through Simulation Modeling and Experimentation

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Andrew P.; Homer, Jack B.; Murphy, Dara L.; Essien, Joyce D. K.; Milstein, Bobby; Seville, Donald A.

    2006-01-01

    Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes. PMID:16449587

  14. Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation.

    PubMed

    Jones, Andrew P; Homer, Jack B; Murphy, Dara L; Essien, Joyce D K; Milstein, Bobby; Seville, Donald A

    2006-03-01

    Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.

  15. Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review

    PubMed Central

    Perc, Matjaž; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

    2013-01-01

    Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

  16. Within- and among-population variation in vital rates and population dynamics in a variable environment.

    PubMed

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Jesensˇek, Dusˇan; Garza, John C; Crivelli, Alain J

    2016-10-01

    Understanding the causes of within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics is a central topic in ecology. To understand how within- and among-population variation emerges, we need long-term studies that include episodic events and contrasting environmental conditions, data to characterize individual and shared variation, and statistical models that can tease apart shared and individual contribution to the observed variation. We used long-term tag-recapture data to investigate and estimate within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics of marble trout Salmo marmoratus, an endemic freshwater salmonid with a narrow range. Only ten populations of pure marble trout persist in headwaters of Alpine rivers in western Slovenia. Marble trout populations are also threatened by floods and landslides, which have already caused the extinction of two populations in recent years. We estimated and determined causes of variation in growth, survival, and recruitment both within and among populations, and evaluated trade-offs between them. Specifically, we estimated the responses of these traits to variation in water temperature, density, sex, early life conditions, and extreme events. We found that the effects of population density on traits were mostly limited to the early stages of life and that growth trajectories were established early in life. We found no clear effects of water temperature on vital rates. Population density varied over time, with flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities (>55% decrease in survival with respect to years with no floods) and threatening population persistence. Apart from flood events, variation in population density within streams was largely determined by variation in recruitment, with survival of older fish being relatively constant over time within populations, but substantially different among populations. Marble trout show a fast

  17. Spatial synchronization of vole population dynamics by predatory birds.

    PubMed

    Ims, R A; Andreassen, H P

    2000-11-09

    Northern vole populations exhibit large-scale, spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such cases of population synchrony provide excellent opportunities for distinguishing between local intrinsic and regional extrinsic mechanisms of population regulation. Analyses of large-scale survey data and theoretical modelling have indicated several plausible synchronizing mechanisms. It is difficult, however, to determine the most important one without detailed data on local demographic processes. Here we combine results from two field studies in southeastern Norway--one identifies local demographic mechanisms and landscape-level annual synchrony among 28 enclosed experimental populations and the other examines region-level multi-annual synchrony in open natural populations. Despite fences eliminating predatory mammals and vole dispersal, the growth rates of the experimental populations were synchronized and moreover, perfectly linked with vole abundance in the region. The fates of 481 radio-marked voles showed that bird predation was the synchronizing mechanism. A higher frequency of risky dispersal movements in slowly growing populations appeared to accelerate predation rate. Thus, dispersal may induce a feedback-loop between predation and population growth that enhances synchrony.

  18. Contrasting effects of giant kelp on dynamics of surfperch populations.

    PubMed

    Schmitt, Russell J; Holbrook, Sally J

    1990-10-01

    The effect of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, on the population dynamics of two temperate reef fishes, striped surfperch (Embiotoca lateralis) and black surfperch (E. jacksoni), was examined. Based on an understanding of how particular reef resources influence abundances of the surfperch and of the effect of giant kelp on those resources, we anticipated that Macrocystis would adversely affect populations of striped surfperch but would enhance those of black surfperch. The natural establishment of giant kelp at sites at Santa Cruz Island, California, resulted in the predicted dynamical responses of surfperch. Abundances of striped surfperch declined rapidly when and where dense forests of giant kelp appeared, but showed little change where Macrocystis was continuously absent over the 8 y period of study. Abundances of adult black surperch, which increased following the appearance of giant kelp, were lagged by >1 y because the dynamical response involved enhanced local recruitment. No change in abundance of black surfperch populations was evident at areas without giant kelp.The mechanism by which giant kelp altered the dynamics of the surfperch involved modification of the assemblage of understory algae used by surfperch as foraging microhabitat. Foliose algae (including Gelidium robustum) were much reduced and turf was greatly enhanced following the appearance of Macrocystis; these two benthic substrata are the favored foraging microhabitat for striped surfperch and black surfperch respectively. Populations of both surfperch species tracked temporal changes in the local availability of their favored foraging microhabitat. Thus, while neither species used Macrocystis directly, temporal and spatial variation in giant kelp indirectly influenced the dynamics of these fishes by altering their foraging base. These results indicate that the dynamics of striped surfperch and black surfperch were governed to a large degree by density-dependent consumer

  19. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    PubMed

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities.

  20. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

    PubMed Central

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

    2014-01-01

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

  1. Dynamic analysis of grinding using the population balance model

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, M.C. |

    1995-12-31

    The dynamic behavior of batch mill, CSTR mill, and a closed grinding network consisting of a mill, sump, and cyclone was analyzed using the dynamic population balance model (PBM). The dynamic solution of the PBM of a batch, CSTR and a closed grinding network consisting of a mill, sump, and cyclone forms the basis of the dynamic analysis presented here. Two numerical dynamic solution approaches were used. These are: (1) providing additional constraints on breakage selection functions or (2) performing the Arbiter-Bhrany (or other) normalization of the selection functions. Actual experimental anthracite batch grinding data was used to obtain the functionality of the batch dynamic mill selection and breakage functions for a real physical system. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for systems of constrained non-linear equations is used to solve the batch dynamic PBM grinding equations to obtain the grinding selection and breakage rate functions. The mill, sump and hydrocyclone were modeled as a CSTR operating at various retention times. Batch dynamic PBM data was used to provide the mill kinetic and breakage selection function data. Different dynamic solutions were obtained depending on the numerical approach used. Each solution approach to a dynamic PBM with transport, while giving the same prediction for a single batch grinding time, gives different solutions or predictions for mill composition for other grinding times. This fact makes dynamic nodal analysis and control problematic. The fact that the constraint solution approach gives a solution may suggest that normalization for closed networks is not necessary. Differences in solutions to the PBM cannot be excused away by inaccuracies in the data used to model the grinding phenomenon.

  2. Metamodels for transdisciplinary analysis of wildlife population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lacy, Robert C; Miller, Philip S; Nyhus, Philip J; Pollak, J P; Raboy, Becky E; Zeigler, Sara L

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological - physical - human systems. We describe a "metamodel" approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples - one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics - to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation.

  3. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  4. Identifying interactions among salmon populations from observed dynamics.

    PubMed

    Fujiwara, Masami

    2008-01-01

    A simple direct correlation analysis of individual counts between different populations often fails to characterize the true nature of population interactions; however, the most common data type available for population studies is count data, and one of the most important objectives in population and community ecology is to identify interactions among populations. Here, I examine the dynamics of the spawning abundance of fall-run chinook salmon spawning within the California Central Valley and the Klamath Basin, California, and the Columbia River Basin, Oregon. I analyzed multiple time series from each watershed using a multivariate time-series technique called maximum autocorrelation factor analysis. This technique was used for finding common underlying trends in escapement abundance within each watershed. These trends were further investigated to identify potential resource-mediated interactions among the three groups of salmon. Each group is affected by multiple trends that are likely to be affected by environmental factors. In addition, some of the trends are coherent with each other, and the differences in population dynamics originate from variations in the relative importance of these trends among the three watershed groups.

  5. Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  6. Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

    PubMed

    Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

    2010-06-01

    Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

  7. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-01-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies. PMID:26367172

  8. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ''diversity waves'' triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak--species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

  9. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    DOE PAGES

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

  10. Population dynamics of epiphytic orchids in a metapopulation context

    PubMed Central

    Winkler, Manuela; Hülber, Karl; Hietz, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims Populations of many epiphytes show a patchy distribution where clusters of plants growing on individual trees are spatially separated and may thus function as metapopulations. Seed dispersal is necessary to (re)colonize unoccupied habitats, and to transfer seeds from high- to low-competition patches. Increasing dispersal distances, however, reduces local fecundity and the probability that seeds will find a safe site outside the original patch. Thus, there is a conflict between seed survival and colonization. Methods Populations of three epiphytic orchids were monitored over three years in a Mexican humid montane forest and analysed with spatially averaged and with spatially explicit matrix metapopulation models. In the latter, population dynamics at the scale of the subpopulations (epiphytes on individual host trees) are based on detailed stage-structured observations of transition probabilities and trees are connected by a dispersal function. Key Results Population growth rates differed among trees and years. While ignoring these differences, and averaging the population matrices over trees, yields negative population growth, metapopulation models predict stable or growing populations because the trees that support growing subpopulations determine the growth of the metapopulation. Stochastic models which account for the differences among years differed only marginally from deterministic models. Population growth rates were significantly lower, and extinctions of local patches more frequent in models where higher dispersal results in reduced local fecundity compared with hypothetical models where this is not the case. The difference between the two models increased with increasing mean dispersal distance. Though recolonization events increased with dispersal distance, this could not compensate the losses due to reduced local fecundity. Conclusions For epiphytes, metapopulation models are useful to capture processes beyond the level of the single

  11. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

  12. Population Dynamics of a Commercial Sponge in Biscayne Bay, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cropper, W. P.; Lirman, D.; Tosini, S. C.; DiResta, D.; Luo, J.; Wang, J.

    2001-07-01

    The dynamics of glove sponge ( Spongia graminea) population in Biscayne Bay, Florida were investigated using a series of matrix population models, a hydrodynamic model, and a GIS data base. Sponges at Billy's Point, on the eastern margin of Biscayne Bay, were sampled between 1993 and 1995 and resampled in 2000 for model calibration and testing. An iterative procedure was used to fit unmeasured fecundity and a growth parameter by minimizing the 1993 to 2000 simulated differences from the observed year 2000 size class distribution. A density dependent model was found to fit the total population size in 2000 better than the density independent matrix model. Systematic sampling of the bay was used to identify four local populations with sponge densities above 50 ha -1. The three western populations experienced salinity below 25, based on hydrodynamic model outputs for 1995, whereas the eastern Billy's Point population had a stable ocean salinity environment. The hydrodynamic model was used to simulate larval transport between local populations as lagrangian drifting particles. These simulations indicated that the Billy's Point population was likely to be demographically closed.

  13. The population dynamics of an endemic collectible cactus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandujano, María C.; Bravo, Yolotzin; Verhulst, Johannes; Carrillo-Angeles, Israel; Golubov, Jordan

    2015-02-01

    Astrophytum is one of most collected genera in the cactus family. Around the world several species are maintained in collections and yearly, several plants are taken from their natural habitats. Populations of Astorphytum capricorne are found in the northern Chihuahuan desert, Mexico, and as many endemic cactus species, it has a highly restricted habitat. We conducted a demographic study from 2008 to 2010 of the northern populations found at Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. We applied matrix population models, included simulations, life table response experiments and descriptions of the population dynamics to evaluate the current status of the species, and detect key life table stages and demographic processes. Population growth rate decreased in both years and only 4% individual mortality can be attributed to looting, and a massive effort is needed to increase seedling recruitment and reduce adult mortality. The fate of individuals differed between years even having the same annual rainfall mainly in accentuated stasis, retrogression and high mortality in all size classes, which coupled with low seed production, no recruitment and collection of plants are the causes contributing to population decline, and hence, increase the risk in which A. capricorne populations are found. Reintroduction of seedlings and lowering adult mortality are urgently needed to revert the alarming demographic condition of A. capricorne populations.

  14. Climate Change and Algal Blooms =

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Shengpan

    Algal blooms are new emerging hazards that have had important social impacts in recent years. However, it was not very clear whether future climate change causing warming waters and stronger storm events would exacerbate the algal bloom problem. The goal of this dissertation was to evaluate the sensitivity of algal biomass to climate change in the continental United States. Long-term large-scale observations of algal biomass in inland lakes are challenging, but are necessary to relate climate change to algal blooms. To get observations at this scale, this dissertation applied machine-learning algorithms including boosted regression trees (BRT) in remote sensing of chlorophyll-a with Landsat TM/ETM+. The results show that the BRT algorithm improved model accuracy by 15%, compared to traditional linear regression. The remote sensing model explained 46% of the total variance of the ground-measured chlorophyll- a in the first National Lake Assessment conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency. That accuracy was ecologically meaningful to study climate change impacts on algal blooms. Moreover, the BRT algorithm for chlorophyll- a would not have systematic bias that is introduced by sediments and colored dissolved organic matter, both of which might change concurrently with climate change and algal blooms. This dissertation shows that the existing atmospheric corrections for Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery might not be good enough to improve the remote sensing of chlorophyll-a in inland lakes. After deriving long-term algal biomass estimates from Landsat TM/ETM+, time series analysis was used to study the relations of climate change and algal biomass in four Missouri reservoirs. The results show that neither temperature nor precipitation was the only factor that controlled temporal variation of algal biomass. Different reservoirs, even different zones within the same reservoir, responded differently to temperature and precipitation changes. These findings were further

  15. Population Dynamics of the Stationary Phase Utilizing the ARGOS Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Algarni, S.; Charest, A. J.; Iannacchione, G. S.

    2015-03-01

    The Area Recorded Generalized Optical Scattering (ARGOS) approach to light scattering employs large image capture array allowing for a well-defined geometry in which images may be manipulated to extract structure with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector (I(q)) and dynamics with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector over time (I (q,t)). The ARGOS method provides morphological dynamics noninvasively over a long time period and allows for a variety of aqueous conditions. This is important because traditional growth models do not provide for conditions similar to the natural environment. The present study found that the population dynamics of bacteria do not follow a traditional growth model and that the ARGOS method allowed for the observation of bacterial changes in terms of individual particles and population dynamics in real time. The observations of relative total intensity suggest that there is no stationary phase and that the bacterial population demonstrates sinusoidal type patterns consistently subsequent to the log phase growth. These observation were compared to shape changes by modeling fractal dimension and size changes by modeling effective radius.

  16. Population dynamics in Er3+-doped fluoride glasses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdanov, V. K.; Booth, D. J.; Gibbs, W. E.; Javorniczky, J. S.; Newman, P. J.; Macfarlane, D. R.

    2001-05-01

    A detailed study of the energy-transfer processes in Er3+: flouride glasses with doping concentrations of 0.2-18 mol % is presented. Fluorescence wave forms for 11 erbium transitions were measured under 802-nm, 1.5-μm, 975-nm, 520-nm, and 403-nm excitation from a high-energy short-pulse source. The analysis of these data provided a physical understanding of the processes responsible for the temporal behavior of the populations of a large number of energy levels. A comprehensive nine-level rate-equation model of the Er3+ population dynamics in these fluoride glasses is developed. The model performs well in predicting the observed fluorescence behavior of the main fluorescing lines under all pumping conditions. The modeling process allowed 14 ion-ion energy-transfer processes that are important for the population dynamics in these fluoride glasses to be identified and their rate constants obtained. Noticeably, the inclusion of seven three-ion processes was found necessary in order to obtain good fits to the experimental fluorescence wave forms. It was also found that some three-ion processes have a significant effect on the population dynamics of the levels even in lower doping concentrations.

  17. Population rate dynamics and multineuron firing patterns in sensory cortex

    PubMed Central

    Okun, Michael; Yger, Pierre; Marguet, Stephan; Gerard-Mercier, Florian; Benucci, Andrea; Katzner, Steffen; Busse, Laura; Carandini, Matteo; Harris, Kenneth D.

    2012-01-01

    Cortical circuits encode sensory stimuli through the firing of neuronal ensembles, and also produce spontaneous population patterns in the absence of sensory drive. This population activity is often characterized experimentally by the distribution of multineuron “words” (binary firing vectors), and a match between spontaneous and evoked word distributions has been suggested to reflect learning of a probabilistic model of the sensory world. We analyzed multineuron word distributions in sensory cortex of anesthetized rats and cats, and found that they are dominated by fluctuations in population firing rate rather than precise interactions between individual units. Furthermore, cortical word distributions change when brain state shifts, and similar behavior is seen in simulated networks with fixed, random connectivity. Our results suggest that similarity or dissimilarity in multineuron word distributions could primarily reflect similarity or dissimilarity in population firing rate dynamics, and not necessarily the precise interactions between neurons that would indicate learning of sensory features. PMID:23197704

  18. Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland.

    PubMed

    Tornberg, Risto; Lindén, Andreas; Byholm, Patrik; Ranta, Esa; Valkama, Jari; Helle, Pekka; Lindén, Harto

    2013-04-01

    Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator-prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986-2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983-2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator-prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1-3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk-grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than

  19. Changes in population dynamics in mutualistic versus pathogenic viruses.

    PubMed

    Roossinck, Marilyn J

    2011-01-01

    Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis) have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  20. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling.

    PubMed

    Karanth, K Ullas; Nichols, James D; Kumar, N Samba; Hines, James E

    2006-11-01

    Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis

  1. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain

  2. Effects of extreme environmental changes on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Falco, I.; Della Cioppa, A.; Tarantino, E.

    2006-09-01

    The effects of periodic environmental fluctuations on the adaptive behavior and on the survival chance of a population of individuals are investigated as a function of both the genotypes carried, i.e., haploid or diploid. Only extreme and exogenous changes have been taken into account in order not to complicate the model under investigation. Moreover, different rates of both environmental changes and mutation have been considered. The analysis has been performed by discussing the evolutionary dynamics exhibited by the population in terms of adaptation, density and, finally, survival probability.

  3. Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Keeffe, Kevin P.; Strogatz, Steven H.

    2016-06-01

    We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.

  4. Optimal control methods for controlling bacterial populations with persister dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cogan, N. G.

    2016-06-01

    Bacterial tolerance to antibiotics is a well-known phenomena; however, only recent studies of bacterial biofilms have shown how multifaceted tolerance really is. By joining into a structured community and offering shared protection and gene transfer, bacterial populations can protect themselves genotypically, phenotypically and physically. In this study, we collect a line of research that focuses on phenotypic (or plastic) tolerance. The dynamics of persister formation are becoming better understood, even though there are major questions that remain. The thrust of our results indicate that even without detailed description of the biological mechanisms, theoretical studies can offer strategies that can eradicate bacterial populations with existing drugs.

  5. Ecological change, range fluctuations and population dynamics during the Pleistocene.

    PubMed

    Hofreiter, Michael; Stewart, John

    2009-07-28

    Apart from the current human-induced climate change, the Holocene is notable for its stable climate. In contrast, the preceding age, the Pleistocene, was a time of intensive climatic fluctuations, with temperature changes of up to 15 degrees C occurring within a few decades. These climatic changes have substantially influenced both animal and plant populations. Until recently, the prevailing opinion about the effect of these climatic fluctuations on species in Europe was that populations survived glacial maxima in southern refugia and that populations died out outside these refugia. However, some of the latest studies of modern population genetics, the fossil record and especially ancient DNA reveal a more complex picture. There is now strong evidence for additional local northern refugia for a large number of species, including both plants and animals. Furthermore, population genetic analyses using ancient DNA have shown that genetic diversity and its geographical structure changed more often and in more unpredictable ways during the Pleistocene than had been inferred. Taken together, the Pleistocene is now seen as an extremely dynamic era, with rapid and large climatic fluctuations and correspondingly variable ecology. These changes were accompanied by similarly fast and sometimes dramatic changes in population size and extensive gene flow mediated by population movements. Thus, the Pleistocene is an excellent model case for the effects of rapid climate change, as we experience at the moment, on the ecology of plants and animals.

  6. [Analysis on age structure and dynamics of Kindonia uniflora populations].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wenhui; Li, Jingxia; Li, Hong; Liu, Xiangjun

    2004-04-01

    Kindonia uniflora is a perennial clone herbaceous plant, and also, a native endangered plant in China. This paper studied its age structure, life table and survivorship curve in different habitats in Taibai mountain area. The results indicated that the age structure and dynamics of K. uniflora populations in the Betula utilis forest at altitude 2500-2700 m, in the Abies fargesii forest at altitude 2700-2900 m, and in the Larix chinensis forest at altitude 2900-3100 m had the similar pattern and developing tendency. The number of younger ramets at 1-2 years old or older than 5 years was less, and the number of ramets at 3-5 years old was the highest in the age structures. The negative values of dx (dead number), qx (mortality rate) and Kx (Killing rate) in the life table showed the increasing rate of the population sizes during the age stage. The survivorship curve of K. uniflora populations in different habitats belonged to Deevey C after 3-5 years old. The mortality rate of populations during 5-10 years stage was higher, and was stable after 10 years old. As for the characters of asexual propagation and clone growth, the rhizomes of the populations were in humus of soil, and developed and expanded as guerilla line style. During growth season, only one leaf grew above ground at every inter-node, and the population growth and development were rarely influenced by external factors. The forest communities, such as Betula utilis, Abies fargesii and Larix chinensis forest, in which K. uniflora populations lived, were at middle or higher mountain, where there were rarely disturbance from human being. Therefore, the habitats for K. uniflora populations to live were relatively stable. As the altitude increased, the disturbances from human being became less, the density of K. uniflora populations increased, the life cycle expanded, the peak of population death delayed, and the population living strategy changed to adapt to the habitats. K. uniflora populations preferred to

  7. Algal Biofuels; Algal Biofuels R&D at NREL (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2010-09-01

    An overview of NREL's algal biofuels projects, including U.S. Department of Energy-funded work, projects with U.S. and international partners, and Laboratory Directed Research and Development projects.

  8. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    PubMed

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  9. How should environmental stress affect the population dynamics of disease?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Holt, Robert D.

    2003-01-01

    We modelled how stress affects the population dynamics of infectious disease. We were specifically concerned with stress that increased susceptibility of uninfected hosts when exposed to infection. If such stresses also reduced resources, fecundity and/or survivorship, there was a reduction in the host carrying capacity. This lowered the contact between infected and uninfected hosts, thereby decreasing transmission. In addition, stress that increased parasite mortality decreased disease. The opposing effects of stress on disease dynamics made it difficult to predict the response of disease to environmental stress. We found analytical solutions with negative, positive, convex and concave associations between disease and stress. Numerical simulations with randomly generated parameter values suggested that the impact of host-specific diseases generally declined with stress while the impact of non-specific (or open) diseases increased with stress. These results help clarify predictions about the interaction between environmental stress and disease in natural populations.

  10. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  11. Microbial bioenergetics of coral-algal interactions

    PubMed Central

    Abieri, Maria L.; George, Emma E.; Knowles, Ben; Naliboff, Douglas S.; Smurthwaite, Cameron A.; Kelly, Linda Wegley; Haas, Andreas F.

    2017-01-01

    Human impacts are causing ecosystem phase shifts from coral- to algal-dominated reef systems on a global scale. As these ecosystems undergo transition, there is an increased incidence of coral-macroalgal interactions. Mounting evidence indicates that the outcome of these interaction events is, in part, governed by microbially mediated dynamics. The allocation of available energy through different trophic levels, including the microbial food web, determines the outcome of these interactions and ultimately shapes the benthic community structure. However, little is known about the underlying thermodynamic mechanisms involved in these trophic energy transfers. This study utilizes a novel combination of methods including calorimetry, flow cytometry, and optical oxygen measurements, to provide a bioenergetic analysis of coral-macroalgal interactions in a controlled aquarium setting. We demonstrate that the energetic demands of microbial communities at the coral-algal interaction interface are higher than in the communities associated with either of the macroorganisms alone. This was evident through higher microbial power output (energy use per unit time) and lower oxygen concentrations at interaction zones compared to areas distal from the interface. Increases in microbial power output and lower oxygen concentrations were significantly correlated with the ratio of heterotrophic to autotrophic microbes but not the total microbial abundance. These results suggest that coral-algal interfaces harbor higher proportions of heterotrophic microbes that are optimizing maximal power output, as opposed to yield. This yield to power shift offers a possible thermodynamic mechanism underlying the transition from coral- to algal-dominated reef ecosystems currently being observed worldwide. As changes in the power output of an ecosystem are a significant indicator of the current state of the system, this analysis provides a novel and insightful means to quantify microbial impacts on

  12. Microbial bioenergetics of coral-algal interactions.

    PubMed

    Roach, Ty N F; Abieri, Maria L; George, Emma E; Knowles, Ben; Naliboff, Douglas S; Smurthwaite, Cameron A; Kelly, Linda Wegley; Haas, Andreas F; Rohwer, Forest L

    2017-01-01

    Human impacts are causing ecosystem phase shifts from coral- to algal-dominated reef systems on a global scale. As these ecosystems undergo transition, there is an increased incidence of coral-macroalgal interactions. Mounting evidence indicates that the outcome of these interaction events is, in part, governed by microbially mediated dynamics. The allocation of available energy through different trophic levels, including the microbial food web, determines the outcome of these interactions and ultimately shapes the benthic community structure. However, little is known about the underlying thermodynamic mechanisms involved in these trophic energy transfers. This study utilizes a novel combination of methods including calorimetry, flow cytometry, and optical oxygen measurements, to provide a bioenergetic analysis of coral-macroalgal interactions in a controlled aquarium setting. We demonstrate that the energetic demands of microbial communities at the coral-algal interaction interface are higher than in the communities associated with either of the macroorganisms alone. This was evident through higher microbial power output (energy use per unit time) and lower oxygen concentrations at interaction zones compared to areas distal from the interface. Increases in microbial power output and lower oxygen concentrations were significantly correlated with the ratio of heterotrophic to autotrophic microbes but not the total microbial abundance. These results suggest that coral-algal interfaces harbor higher proportions of heterotrophic microbes that are optimizing maximal power output, as opposed to yield. This yield to power shift offers a possible thermodynamic mechanism underlying the transition from coral- to algal-dominated reef ecosystems currently being observed worldwide. As changes in the power output of an ecosystem are a significant indicator of the current state of the system, this analysis provides a novel and insightful means to quantify microbial impacts on

  13. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  14. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

    PubMed Central

    Sabes, Philip N.

    2015-01-01

    Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

  15. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Three Potato Pests in Washington State.

    PubMed

    D'Auria, Elizabeth M; Wohleb, Carrie H; Waters, Timothy D; Crowder, David W

    2016-08-01

    Pest phenology models allow producers to anticipate pest outbreaks and deploy integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Phenology models are particularly useful for cropping systems with multiple economically damaging pests throughout a season. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops of Washington State, USA, are attacked by many insect pests including the potato tuberworm (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller), the beet leafhopper (Circulifer tenellus Baker), and the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae Sulzer). Each of these pests directly damages potato foliage or tubers; C. tenellus and M. persicae also transmit pathogens that can drastically reduce potato yields. We monitored the seasonal population dynamics of these pests by conducting weekly sampling on a network of commercial farms from 2007 to 2014. Using these data, we developed phenology models to characterize the seasonal population dynamics of each pest based on accumulated degree-days (DD). All three pests exhibited consistent population dynamics across seasons that were mediated by temperature. Of the three pests, C. tenellus was generally the first detected in potato crops, with 90% of adults captured by 936 DD. In contrast, populations of P. operculella and M. persicae built up more slowly over the course of the season, with 90% cumulative catch by 1,590 and 2,634 DD, respectively. Understanding these seasonal patterns could help potato producers plan their IPM strategies while allowing them to move away from calendar-based applications of insecticides. More broadly, our results show how long-term monitoring studies that explore dynamics of multiple pest species can aid in developing IPM strategies in crop systems. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  17. Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households

    PubMed Central

    Ross, Joshua V.; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt J.

    2010-01-01

    Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks. PMID:20305791

  18. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Morales, Juan M.; Moorcroft, Paul R.; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Kie, John G.; Powell, Roger A.; Merrill, Evelyn H.; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2010-01-01

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through ‘spatially informed’ movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission–fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction. PMID:20566505

  19. Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Thompson, P M; Ollason, J C

    2001-09-27

    Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates, and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability. The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton, but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top predators. Here we show by analysis of data from a 50-year study of the fulmar that two different indices of ocean climate variation may have lagged effects on population dynamics in this procellariiform seabird. Annual variability in breeding performance is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas cohort differences in recruitment are related to temperature changes in the summer growing season in the year of birth. Because fulmars exhibit delayed reproduction, there is a 5-year lag in the population's response to these effects of environmental change. These data show how interactions between different climatic factors result in complex dynamics, and that the effects of climate change may take many years to become apparent in long-lived marine top predators.

  20. VCGDB: a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The data released by the 1000 Genomes Project contain an increasing number of genome sequences from different nations and populations with a large number of genetic variations. As a result, the focus of human genome studies is changing from single and static to complex and dynamic. The currently available human reference genome (GRCh37) is based on sequencing data from 13 anonymous Caucasian volunteers, which might limit the scope of genomics, transcriptomics, epigenetics, and genome wide association studies. Description We used the massive amount of sequencing data published by the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium to construct the Virtual Chinese Genome Database (VCGDB), a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population based on the whole genome sequencing data of 194 individuals. VCGDB provides dynamic genomic information, which contains 35 million single nucleotide variations (SNVs), 0.5 million insertions/deletions (indels), and 29 million rare variations, together with genomic annotation information. VCGDB also provides a highly interactive user-friendly virtual Chinese genome browser (VCGBrowser) with functions like seamless zooming and real-time searching. In addition, we have established three population-specific consensus Chinese reference genomes that are compatible with mainstream alignment software. Conclusions VCGDB offers a feasible strategy for processing big data to keep pace with the biological data explosion by providing a robust resource for genomics studies; in particular, studies aimed at finding regions of the genome associated with diseases. PMID:24708222

  1. IMF shape constraints from stellar populations and dynamics from CALIFA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyubenova, M.; Martín-Navarro, I.; van de Ven, G.; Falcón-Barroso, J.; Galbany, L.; Gallazzi, A.; García-Benito, R.; González Delgado, R.; Husemann, B.; La Barbera, F.; Marino, R. A.; Mast, D.; Mendez-Abreu, J.; Peletier, R. F. P.; Sánchez-Blázquez, P.; Sánchez, S. F.; Trager, S. C.; van den Bosch, R. C. E.; Vazdekis, A.; Walcher, C. J.; Zhu, L.; Zibetti, S.; Ziegler, B.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.; CALIFA Collaboration

    2016-12-01

    In this Paper, we describe how we use stellar dynamics information to constrain the shape of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) in a sample of 27 early-type galaxies from the CALIFA survey. We obtain dynamical and stellar mass-to-light ratios, Υdyn and Υ*, over a homogenous aperture of 0.5 Re. We use the constraint Υdyn≥Υ* to test two IMF shapes within the framework of the extended MILES stellar population models. We rule out a single power-law IMF shape for 75 per cent of the galaxies in our sample. Conversely, we find that a double power-law IMF shape with a varying high-mass end slope is compatible (within 1σ) with 95 per cent of the galaxies. We also show that dynamical and stellar IMF mismatch factors give consistent results for the systematic variation of the IMF in these galaxies.

  2. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  3. Population Dynamics of Early Visual Cortex during Working Memory.

    PubMed

    Rahmati, Masih; Saber, Golbarg T; Curtis, Clayton E

    2017-10-06

    Although the content of working memory (WM) can be decoded from the spatial patterns of brain activity in early visual cortex, how populations encode WM representations remain unclear. Here, we address this limitation by using a model-based approach that reconstructs the feature encoded by population activity measured with fMRI. Using this approach, we could successfully reconstruct the locations of memory-guided saccade goals based on the pattern of activity in visual cortex during a memory delay. We could reconstruct the saccade goal even when we dissociated the visual stimulus from the saccade goal using a memory-guided antisaccade procedure. By comparing the spatiotemporal population dynamics, we find that the representations in visual cortex are stable but can also evolve from a representation of a remembered visual stimulus to a prospective goal. Moreover, because the representation of the antisaccade goal cannot be the result of bottom-up visual stimulation, it must be evoked by top-down signals presumably originating from frontal and/or parietal cortex. Indeed, we find that trial-by-trial fluctuations in delay period activity in frontal and parietal cortex correlate with the precision with which our model reconstructed the maintained saccade goal based on the pattern of activity in visual cortex. Therefore, the population dynamics in visual cortex encode WM representations, and these representations can be sculpted by top-down signals from frontal and parietal cortex.

  4. Stochasticity and universal dynamics in communicating cellular populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mehta, Pankaj; Allyson Sgro Collaboration; David Schwab Collaboration; Troy Mestler Collaboration; Thomas Gregor Collaboration

    2014-03-01

    A fundamental problem in biology is to understand how biochemical networks within individual cells coordinate and control population-level behaviors. Our knowledge of these biochemical networks is often incomplete, with little known about the underlying kinetic parameters. Here, we present a general modeling approach for overcoming these challenges based on universality. We apply our approach to study the emergence of collective oscillations of the signaling molecule cAMP in populations of the social amoebae Dictyostelium discoideum and show that a simple two-dimensional dynamical system can reproduce signaling dynamics of single cells and successfully predict novel population-level behaviors. We reduce all the important parameters of our model to only two and will study its behavior through a phase diagram. This phase diagram determines conditions under which cells are quiet or oscillating either coherently or incoherently. Furthermore it allows us to study the effect of different model components such as stochasticity, multicellularity and signal preprocessing. A central finding of our model is that Dictyostelium exploit stochasticity within biochemical networks to control population level behaviors.

  5. Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.; Cosner, Chris; Obaza, Adam; Jopp, Fred

    2010-01-01

    Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the reaction-diffusion mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first--the 'refuge mechanism--hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the 'dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism' is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.

  6. Populations dynamics of Australorbis glabratus in Puerto Rico

    PubMed Central

    Ritchie, Lawrence S.; Radke, Myron G.; Ferguson, Frederick F.

    1962-01-01

    This report on the population dynamics of Australorbis glabratus in Puerto Rico is based on observations made over about two years at 50 collecting-sites in a representative range of snail habitats. In some places a marked predominance of Tropicorbis was noted. No continuous or seasonal propagation of Australorbis was apparent. Dense populations seldom prevailed for more than a few months, and in most places very low population levels occurred at irregular intervals, and colony decimations were fairly common. A variety of pressures is exerted on Australorbis in Puerto Rico by a multiplicity of natural factors; detailed knowledge of this snail's natural history in the field is necessary for effective bilharziasis control and for a full understanding of the regional epidemiology of this disease. PMID:14492504

  7. Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations

    PubMed Central

    Santos, F. C.; Pacheco, J. M.; Lenaerts, Tom

    2006-01-01

    Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations. PMID:16484371

  8. Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.

    PubMed

    Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom

    2006-02-28

    Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations.

  9. Spatio-temporal transitions in the dynamics of bacterial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Anna; Lincoln, Bryan; Mann, Bernward; Torres, Gelsy; Kas, Josef; Swinney, Harry

    2001-03-01

    We experimentally investigate the population dynamics of a strain of E. coli bacteria living under spatially inhomogeneous growth conditions. A localized perturbation that moves with a well-defined drift velocity is imposed on the system. A reaction-diffusion model of this situation^1 predicts that an abrupt transition between spatial localization and extinction of the colony occurs for a fixed average growth rate when the drift velocity exceeds a critical value. Also, a transition between localized and delocalized populations is predicted to occur at a fixed drift velocity when the spatially averaged growth rate is varied. We create a spatially localized perturbation with UV light and vary the strength and drift velocity of the perturbation to investigate the existence of the different bacterial population distributions and the transitions between them. Numerical simulations of a 250 mm by 20 mm system guide our experiments. ^1K. A. Dahmen, D. R. Nelson, N. M. Shnerb, Jour. Math. Bio., 41 1 (2000).

  10. Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

  11. Environmental influence on population dynamics of the bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corte, Guilherme Nascimento; Coleman, Ross A.; Amaral, A. Cecília Z.

    2017-03-01

    Understanding how species respond to the environment in terms of population attributes (e.g. abundance, growth, mortality, fecundity, and productivity) is essential to protect ecologically and economically important species. Nevertheless, responses of macrobenthic populations to environmental features are overlooked due to the need of consecutive samplings and time-consuming measurements. We examined the population dynamics of the filter-feeding bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana on a tidal flat over the course of one year to investigate the hypothesis that, as accepted for macrobenthic communities, populations inhabiting environments with low hydrodynamic conditions such as tidal flat should have higher attributes than populations inhabiting more energetic habitats (i.e. areas more influenced by wave energy such as reflective and intermediate beaches). This would be expected because the harsh conditions of more energetic habitats force organisms to divert more energy towards maintenance, resulting in lower population attributes. We found that A. brasiliana showed moderate growth and secondary production at the study area. Moreover the recruitment period was restricted to a few months. A comparison with previous studies showed that, contrary to expected, A. brasiliana populations from areas with low hydrodynamic conditions have lower abundance, growth, recruitment and turnover rate. It is likely that morphodynamic characteristics recorded in these environments, such as larger periods of air exposure and lower water circulation, may affect food conditions for filter-feeding species and increase competition. In addition, these characteristics may negatively affect macrobenthic species by enhancing eutrophication processes and anoxia. Overall, our results suggest that models accepted and applied at the macrobenthic community level might not be directly extended to A. brasiliana populations.

  12. Fueling Future with Algal Genomics

    SciTech Connect

    Grigoriev, Igor

    2012-07-05

    Algae constitute a major component of fundamental eukaryotic diversity, play profound roles in the carbon cycle, and are prominent candidates for biofuel production. The US Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute (JGI) is leading the world in algal genome sequencing (http://jgi.doe.gov/Algae) and contributes of the algal genome projects worldwide (GOLD database, 2012). The sequenced algal genomes offer catalogs of genes, networks, and pathways. The sequenced first of its kind genomes of a haptophyte E.huxleyii, chlorarachniophyte B.natans, and cryptophyte G.theta fill the gaps in the eukaryotic tree of life and carry unique genes and pathways as well as molecular fossils of secondary endosymbiosis. Natural adaptation to conditions critical for industrial production is encoded in algal genomes, for example, growth of A.anophagefferens at very high cell densities during the harmful algae blooms or a global distribution across diverse environments of E.huxleyii, able to live on sparse nutrients due to its expanded pan-genome. Communications and signaling pathways can be derived from simple symbiotic systems like lichens or complex marine algae metagenomes. Collectively these datasets derived from algal genomics contribute to building a comprehensive parts list essential for algal biofuel development.

  13. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

    PubMed Central

    Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

  14. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

    PubMed

    Vahia, Mayank N; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era. We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

  15. [On the relation between encounter rate and population density: Are classical models of population dynamics justified?].

    PubMed

    Nedorezov, L V

    2015-01-01

    A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals.

  16. Stationary stability for evolutionary dynamics in finite populations

    DOE PAGES

    Harper, Marc; Fryer, Dashiell

    2016-08-25

    Here, we demonstrate a vast expansion of the theory of evolutionary stability to finite populations with mutation, connecting the theory of the stationary distribution of the Moran process with the Lyapunov theory of evolutionary stability. We define the notion of stationary stability for the Moran process with mutation and generalizations, as well as a generalized notion of evolutionary stability that includes mutation called an incentive stable state (ISS) candidate. For sufficiently large populations, extrema of the stationary distribution are ISS candidates and we give a family of Lyapunov quantities that are locally minimized at the stationary extrema and at ISSmore » candidates. In various examples, including for the Moran andWright–Fisher processes, we show that the local maxima of the stationary distribution capture the traditionally-defined evolutionarily stable states. The classical stability theory of the replicator dynamic is recovered in the large population limit. Finally we include descriptions of possible extensions to populations of variable size and populations evolving on graphs.« less

  17. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    PubMed Central

    Balasubramanian, Vijay

    2017-01-01

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations exhibit damped oscillations, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a “winner-take-all” scenario, leading to a specialized spacer distribution. Bacteria can interpolate between these limiting behaviors by actively tuning their overall acquisition probability. PMID:28414716

  18. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradde, Serena; Vucelja, Marija; Tesileanu, Tiberiu; Balasubramanian, Vijay

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations oscillate, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a ``winner-take-all'' scenario, leading to a specialized spacer distribution. Bacteria can interpolate between these limiting behaviors by actively tuning their overall acquisition rate.

  19. Spatial scaling of avian population dynamics: population abundance, growth rate, and variability.

    PubMed

    Jones, Jason; Doran, Patrick J; Holmes, Richard T

    2007-10-01

    Synchrony in population fluctuations has been identified as an important component of population dynamics. In a previous study, we determined that local-scale (<15-km) spatial synchrony of bird populations in New England was correlated with synchronous fluctuations in lepidopteran larvae abundance and with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we address five questions that extend the scope of our earlier study using North American Breeding Bird Survey data. First, do bird populations in eastern North America exhibit spatial synchrony in abundances at scales beyond those we have documented previously? Second, does spatial synchrony depend on what population metric is analyzed (e.g., abundance, growth rate, or variability)? Third, is there geographic concordance in where species exhibit synchrony? Fourth, for those species that exhibit significant geographic concordance, are there landscape and habitat variables that contribute to the observed patterns? Fifth, is spatial synchrony affected by a species' life history traits? Significant spatial synchrony was common and its magnitude was dependent on the population metric analyzed. Twenty-four of 29 species examined exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance: mean local autocorrelation (rho)= 0.15; mean spatial extent (mean distance where rho=0) = 420.7 km. Five of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in annual population growth rate (mean local autocorrelation = 0.06, mean distance = 457.8 km). Ten of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance variability (mean local autocorrelation = 0.49, mean distance = 413.8 km). Analyses of landscape structure indicated that habitat variables were infrequent contributors to spatial synchrony. Likewise, we detected no effects of life history traits on synchrony in population abundance or growth rate. However, short-distance migrants exhibited more spatially extensive synchrony in population variability than either year

  20. Dynamic distributions and population declines of Golden-winged Warblers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberg, Kenneth V.; Will, Tom; Buehler, David A.; Barker Swarthout, Sara; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Chandler, Richard

    2016-01-01

    With an estimated breeding population in 2010 of 383,000 pairs, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) is among the most vulnerable and steeply declining of North American passerines. This species also has exhibited among the most dynamic breeding distributions, with populations expanding and then contracting over the past 150 years in response to regional habitat changes, interactions with closely related Blue-winged Warblers (V. cyanoptera), and possibly climate change. Since 1966, the rangewide population has declined by >70% (-2.3% per year; latest North American Breeding Bird Survey data), with much steeper declines in the Appalachian Mountains bird conservation region (-8.3% per year, 98% overall decline). Despite apparently stable or increasing populations in the northwestern part of the range (Minnesota, Manitoba), population estimates for Golden-winged Warbler have continued to decline by 18% from the decade of the 1990s to the 2000s. Population modeling predicts a further decline to roughly 37,000 individuals by 2100, with the species likely to persist only in Manitoba, Minnesota, and possibly Ontario. To delineate the present-day distribution and to identify population concentrations that could serve as conservation focus areas, we compiled rangewide survey data collected in 2000-2006 in 21 states and 3 Canadian provinces, as part of the Golden-winged Warbler Atlas Project (GOWAP), supplemented by state and provincial Breeding Bird Atlas data and more recent observations in eBird. Based on >8,000 GOWAP surveys for Golden-winged and Blue-winged warblers and their hybrids, we mapped occurrence of phenotypically pure and mixed populations in a roughly 0.5-degree grid across the species’ ranges. Hybrids and mixed Golden-winged-Blue-winged populations occurred in a relatively narrow zone across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, southern Ontario, and northern New York. Phenotypically pure Golden-winged Warbler populations occurred north of this

  1. Zooplankton interactions with toxic phytoplankton: Some implications for food web studies and algal defence strategies of feeding selectivity behaviour, toxin dilution and phytoplankton population diversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barreiro, A.; Guisande, C.; Maneiro, I.; Vergara, A. R.; Riveiro, I.; Iglesias, P.

    2007-11-01

    This study focuses on the interactions between toxic phytoplankton and zooplankton grazers. The experimental conditions used are an attempt to simulate situations that have, so far, received little attention. We presume the phytoplankton community to be a set of species where a population of a toxic species is intrinsically diverse by the presence of coexisting strains with different toxic properties. The other species in the community may not always be high-quality food for herbivorous zooplankton. Zooplankton populations may have developed adaptive responses to sympatric toxic phytoplankton species. Zooplankton grazers may perform a specific feeding behaviour and its consequences on fitness will depend on the species ingested, the effect of toxins, and the presence of mechanisms of toxin dilution and compensatory feeding. Our target species are a strain of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum and a sympatric population of the copepod Acartia clausi. Mixed diets were used with two kinds of A. minutum cells: non-toxic and toxic. The flagellate Rhodomonas baltica and the non-toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamarense were added as accompanying species. The effect of each alga was studied in separate diets. The toxic A. minutum cells were shown to have negative effects on egg production, hatching success and total reproductive output, while, in terms of its effect on fitness, the non-toxic A. minutum was the best quality food offered. R. baltica and A. tamarense were in intermediate positions. In the mixed diets, copepods showed a strong preference for toxic A. minutum cells and a weaker one for A. tamarense cells, while non-toxic A. minutum was slightly negatively selected and R. baltica strongly negatively selected. Although the level of toxins accumulated by copepods was very similar, in both the diet with only toxic A. minutum cells and in the mixed diet, the negative effects on fitness in the mixed diet could be offset by toxin dilution mechanisms. The

  2. Modeling Bacterial Population Growth from Stochastic Single-Cell Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-01-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  3. Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing.

    PubMed

    Pardikes, Nicholas A; Harrison, Joshua G; Shapiro, Arthur M; Forister, Matthew L

    2017-07-01

    A long-standing challenge for population biology has been to understand why some species are characterized by populations that fluctuate in size independently, while populations of other species fluctuate synchronously across space. The effects of climatic variation and dispersal have been invoked to explain synchronous population dynamics, however an understanding of the relative influence of these drivers in natural populations is lacking. Here we compare support for dispersal- versus climate-driven models of interspecific variation in synchrony using 27 years of observations of 65 butterfly species at 10 sites spanning 2750 m of elevation in Northern California. The degree of spatial synchrony exhibited by each butterfly species was used as a response in a unique approach that allowed us to investigate whether interspecific variation in response to climate or dispersal propensity was most predictive of interspecific variation in synchrony. We report that variation in sensitivity to climate explained 50% of interspecific variation in synchrony, whereas variation in dispersal propensity explained 23%. Sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a primary driver of regional climate, was the best predictor of synchrony. Combining sensitivity to climate and dispersal propensity into a single model did not greatly increase model performance, confirming the primacy of climatic sensitivity for driving spatial synchrony in butterflies. Finally, we uncovered a relationship between spatial synchrony and population decline that is consistent with theory, but small in magnitude, which suggests that the degree to which populations fluctuate in synchrony is of limited use for understanding the ongoing decline of the Northern California butterfly fauna.

  4. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  5. Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, A R E

    2003-01-01

    The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

  6. Scale-invariant model of marine population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Capitán, José A; Delius, Gustav W

    2010-06-01

    A striking feature of the marine ecosystem is the regularity in its size spectrum: the abundance of organisms as a function of their weight approximately follows a power law over almost ten orders of magnitude. We interpret this as evidence that the population dynamics in the ocean is approximately scale-invariant. We use this invariance in the construction and solution of a size-structured dynamical population model. Starting from a Markov model encoding the basic processes of predation, reproduction, maintenance respiration, and intrinsic mortality, we derive a partial integro-differential equation describing the dependence of abundance on weight and time. Our model represents an extension of the jump-growth model and hence also of earlier models based on the McKendrick-von Foerster equation. The model is scale-invariant provided the rate functions of the stochastic processes have certain scaling properties. We determine the steady-state power-law solution, whose exponent is determined by the relative scaling between the rates of the density-dependent processes (predation) and the rates of the density-independent processes (reproduction, maintenance, and mortality). We study the stability of the steady-state against small perturbations and find that inclusion of maintenance respiration and reproduction in the model has a strong stabilizing effect. Furthermore, the steady state is unstable against a change in the overall population density unless the reproduction rate exceeds a certain threshold.

  7. Effects of rainfall on Culex mosquito population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Valdez, L D; Sibona, G J; Diaz, L A; Contigiani, M S; Condat, C A

    2017-03-27

    The dynamics of a mosquito population depends heavily on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Since climate change models predict that global warming will impact on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, it is important to understand how these variables affect the mosquito populations. We present a model of the dynamics of a Culex quinquefasciatus mosquito population that incorporates the effect of rainfall and use it to study the influence of the number of rainy days and the mean monthly precipitation on the maximum yearly abundance of mosquitoes Mmax. Additionally, using a fracturing process, we investigate the influence of the variability in daily rainfall on Mmax. We find that, given a constant value of monthly precipitation, there is an optimum number of rainy days for which Mmax is a maximum. On the other hand, we show that increasing daily rainfall variability reduces the dependence of Mmax on the number of rainy days, leading also to a higher abundance of mosquitoes for the case of low mean monthly precipitation. Finally, we explore the effect of the rainfall in the months preceding the wettest season, and we obtain that a regimen with high precipitations throughout the year and a higher variability tends to advance slightly the time at which the peak mosquito abundance occurs, but could significantly change the total mosquito abundance in a year.

  8. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  9. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    PubMed Central

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings. PMID:26904150

  10. Auctions with Dynamic Populations: Efficiency and Revenue Maximization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Said, Maher

    We study a stochastic sequential allocation problem with a dynamic population of privately-informed buyers. We characterize the set of efficient allocation rules and show that a dynamic VCG mechanism is both efficient and periodic ex post incentive compatible; we also show that the revenue-maximizing direct mechanism is a pivot mechanism with a reserve price. We then consider sequential ascending auctions in this setting, both with and without a reserve price. We construct equilibrium bidding strategies in this indirect mechanism where bidders reveal their private information in every period, yielding the same outcomes as the direct mechanisms. Thus, the sequential ascending auction is a natural institution for achieving either efficient or optimal outcomes.

  11. Particle tagging and its implications for stellar population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Bret, Theo; Pontzen, Andrew; Cooper, Andrew P.; Frenk, Carlos; Zolotov, Adi; Brooks, Alyson M.; Governato, Fabio; Parry, Owen H.

    2017-07-01

    We establish a controlled comparison between the properties of galactic stellar haloes obtained with hydrodynamical simulations and with 'particle tagging'. Tagging is a fast way to obtain stellar population dynamics: instead of tracking gas and star formation, it 'paints' stars directly on to a suitably defined subset of dark matter particles in a collisionless, dark-matter-only simulation. Our study shows that 'live' particle tagging schemes, where stellar masses are painted on to the dark matter particles dynamically throughout the simulation, can generate good fits to the hydrodynamical stellar density profiles of a central Milky Way-like galaxy and its most prominent substructure. Energy diffusion processes are crucial to reshaping the distribution of stars in infalling spheroidal systems and hence the final stellar halo. We conclude that the success of any particular tagging scheme hinges on this diffusion being taken into account, and discuss the role of different subgrid feedback prescriptions in driving this diffusion.

  12. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment.

    PubMed

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  13. Mosquito population dynamics from cellular automata-based simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syafarina, Inna; Sadikin, Rifki; Nuraini, Nuning

    2016-02-01

    In this paper we present an innovative model for simulating mosquito-vector population dynamics. The simulation consist of two stages: demography and dispersal dynamics. For demography simulation, we follow the existing model for modeling a mosquito life cycles. Moreover, we use cellular automata-based model for simulating dispersal of the vector. In simulation, each individual vector is able to move to other grid based on a random walk. Our model is also capable to represent immunity factor for each grid. We simulate the model to evaluate its correctness. Based on the simulations, we can conclude that our model is correct. However, our model need to be improved to find a realistic parameters to match real data.

  14. Allele dynamics plots for the study of evolutionary dynamics in viral populations.

    PubMed

    Steinbrück, Lars; McHardy, Alice Carolyn

    2011-01-01

    Phylodynamic techniques combine epidemiological and genetic information to analyze the evolutionary and spatiotemporal dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens, such as influenza A or human immunodeficiency viruses. We introduce 'allele dynamics plots' (AD plots) as a method for visualizing the evolutionary dynamics of a gene in a population. Using AD plots, we propose how to identify the alleles that are likely to be subject to directional selection. We analyze the method's merits with a detailed study of the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza A viruses. AD plots for the major surface protein of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) and the 2009 swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) viruses show the succession of substitutions that became fixed in the evolution of the two viral populations. They also allow the early identification of those viral strains that later rise to predominance, which is important for the problem of vaccine strain selection. In summary, we describe a technique that reveals the evolutionary dynamics of a rapidly evolving population and allows us to identify alleles and associated genetic changes that might be under directional selection. The method can be applied for the study of influenza A viruses and other rapidly evolving species or viruses.

  15. The effect of light direction and suspended cell concentrations on algal biofilm growth rates.

    PubMed

    Schnurr, Peter J; Espie, George S; Allen, D Grant

    2014-10-01

    Algae biofilms were grown in a semicontinuous flat plate biofilm photobioreactor to study the effects of light direction and suspended algal cell populations on algal biofilm growth. It was determined that, under the growth conditions and biofilm thicknesses studied, light direction had no effect on long-term algal biofilm growth (26 days); however, light direction did affect the concentration of suspended algal cells by influencing the photon flux density in the growth medium in the photobioreactors. This suspended algal cell population affected short-term (7 days) algae cell recruitment and algal biofilm growth, but additional studies showed that enhanced suspended algal cell populations did not affect biofilm growth rates over the long term (26 days). Studying profiles of light transmittance through biofilms as they grew showed that most of the light became attenuated by the biomass after just a few days of growth (88 % after 3 days). The estimated biofilm thicknesses after these few days of growth were approximately 150 μm. The light attenuation data suggests that, although the biofilms grew to 700-900 μm, under these light intensities, only the first few hundred micrometers of the biofilm is receiving enough light to be photosynthetically active. We postulate that this photosynthetically active layer of the biofilm grows adjacent to the light source, while the rest of the biofilm is in a stationary growth phase. The results of this study have implications for algal biofilm photobioreactor design and operation.

  16. Time-delayed coupled logistic capacity model in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cáceres, Manuel O.

    2014-08-01

    This study proposes a delay-coupled system based on the logistic equation that models the interaction of a population with its varying environment. The integro-diferential equations of the model are presented in terms of a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity equation. The model eliminates the need for a prior knowledge of the maximum saturation environmental carrying capacity value. Therefore the dynamics toward the final attractor in a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity model is studied. Exact results are presented, and analytical conclusions have been done in terms of the two parameters of the model.

  17. The population dynamics of black-white-mulatto racial systems.

    PubMed

    Montgomery, James D

    2011-07-01

    Building on Preston and Campbell's two-sex model of intergenerational transmission, this article provides a theoretical analysis of the dynamics of the racial distribution in black-white-mulatto systems. The author shows that "bounded" patterns of racial classification and switching imply long-run racial homogeneity in the absence of differential reproduction. Beyond the theoretical analysis, the author attempts to account for the dramatic growth of the white population share in Puerto Rico in the early 20th century. Because the effects of racial classification and differential reproduction were roughly offsetting, the observed growth of the white share can be attributed almost entirely to racial switching.

  18. Global climate drives southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Leaper, Russell; Cooke, Justin; Trathan, Phil; Reid, Keith; Rowntree, Victoria; Payne, Roger

    2006-06-22

    Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series from the southwest Atlantic and the El Niño 4 region in the western Pacific were compared to an index of annual calving success of the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) breeding in Argentina. There was a strong relationship between right whale calving output and SST anomalies at South Georgia in the autumn of the previous year and also with mean El Niño 4 SST anomalies delayed by 6 years. These results extend similar observations from other krill predators and show clear linkages between global climate signals and the biological processes affecting whale population dynamics.

  19. Applications of Perron-Frobenius theory to population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Li, Chi-Kwong; Schneider, Hans

    2002-05-01

    By the use of Perron-Frobenius theory, simple proofs are given of the Fundamental Theorem of Demography and of a theorem of Cushing and Yicang on the net reproductive rate occurring in matrix models of population dynamics. The latter result, which is closely related to the Stein-Rosenberg theorem in numerical linear algebra, is further refined with some additional nonnegative matrix theory. When the fertility matrix is scaled by the net reproductive rate, the growth rate of the model is $1$. More generally, we show how to achieve a given growth rate for the model by scaling the fertility matrix. Demographic interpretations of the results are given.

  20. Front acceleration by dynamic selection in Fisher population waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bénichou, O.; Calvez, V.; Meunier, N.; Voituriez, R.

    2012-10-01

    We introduce a minimal model of population range expansion in which the phenotypes of individuals present no selective advantage and differ only in their diffusion rate. We show that such neutral phenotypic variability (i.e., that does not modify the growth rate) alone can yield phenotype segregation at the front edge, even in absence of genetic noise, and significantly impact the dynamical properties of the expansion wave. We present an exact asymptotic traveling wave solution and show analytically that phenotype segregation accelerates the front propagation. The results are compatible with field observations such as invasions of cane toads in Australia or bush crickets in Britain.

  1. Coinfection Dynamics of Two Diseases in a Single Host Population.

    PubMed

    Gao, Daozhou; Porco, Travis C; Ruan, Shigui

    2016-10-01

    A susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model that describes the coinfection and cotransmission of two infectious diseases spreading through a single population is studied. The host population consists of two subclasses: susceptible and infectious, and the infectious individuals are further divided into three subgroups: those infected by the first agent/pathogen, the second agent/pathogen, and both. The basic reproduction numbers for all cases are derived which completely determine the global stability of the system if the presence of one agent/pathogen does not affect the transmission of the other. When the constraint on the transmissibility of the dually infected hosts is removed, we introduce the invasion reproduction number, compare it with two other types of reproduction number and show the uniform persistence of both diseases under certain conditions. Numerical simulations suggest that the system can display much richer dynamics such as backward bifurcation, bistability and Hopf bifurcation.

  2. Programming microbial population dynamics by engineered cell-cell communication.

    PubMed

    Song, Hao; Payne, Stephen; Tan, Cheemeng; You, Lingchong

    2011-07-01

    A major aim of synthetic biology is to program novel cellular behavior using engineered gene circuits. Early endeavors focused on building simple circuits that fulfill simple functions, such as logic gates, bistable toggle switches, and oscillators. These gene circuits have primarily focused on single-cell behaviors since they operate intracellularly. Thus, they are often susceptible to cell-cell variations due to stochastic gene expression. Cell-cell communication offers an efficient strategy to coordinate cellular behavior at the population level. To this end, we review recent advances in engineering cell-cell communication to achieve reliable population dynamics, spanning from communication within single species to multispecies, from one-way sender-receiver communication to two-way communication in synthetic microbial ecosystems. These engineered systems serve as well-defined model systems to better understand design principles of their naturally occurring counterparts and to facilitate novel biotechnology applications.

  3. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  4. Interactions between climate, host refuge use, and tick population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Gregory D; Bull, C Michael

    2006-08-01

    The relationship between Australian sleepy lizard (Tiliqua rugosa) microhabitat use and tick (Amblyomma limbatum) population dynamics was investigated. Over 3 years (2002-2004) between 23 and 50 lizards were radio-tracked up to four times a week to record microhabitat use and each fortnight to determine tick loads. Daily maximum temperature was highly predictive of lizard microhabitat use. In hotter fortnights lizards used larger bushes and burrows for refuge. Peak background tick infestation levels and pulses of attachment coincided with higher ambient temperature. Male ticks attached throughout the year independent of season. Engorged females detached late in spring, summer and autumn, when climate regularly restricted lizards to a few thermally conservative refuges. Peak nymph and larval attachment occurred over summer and into autumn. Climate-dependent timing and type of host refuge use may influence tick population density. In more temperate summers lizards may avoid refuges with potentially high parasite loads.

  5. Programming microbial population dynamics by engineered cell-cell communication

    PubMed Central

    Song, Hao; Payne, Stephen; Tan, Cheemeng; You, Lingchong

    2013-01-01

    A major aim of synthetic biology is to program novel cellular behaviors using engineered gene circuits. Early endeavors focused on building simple circuits that fulfill simple functions, such as logic gates, bistable toggle switches, and oscillators. These gene circuits have primarily focused on single-cell behaviors since they operate intracellularly. Thus, they are often susceptible to cell-cell variations due to stochastic gene expression. Cell-cell communication offers an efficient strategy to coordinate cellular behaviors at the population level. To this end, we review recent advances in engineering cell-cell communication to achieve reliable population dynamics, spanning from communication within single species to multispecies, from one-way sender-receiver communication to two-way communication in synthetic microbial ecosystems. These engineered systems serve as well-defined model systems to better understand design principles of their naturally occurring counterparts and to facilitate novel biotechnology applications. PMID:21681967

  6. Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

    2012-02-01

    Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

  7. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  8. Host-Parasite Interactions and Population Dynamics of Rock Ptarmigan.

    PubMed

    Stenkewitz, Ute; Nielsen, Ólafur K; Skírnisson, Karl; Stefánsson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    evidence that E. muta through time-lag in prevalence with respect to host population size and by showing significant relations with host body condition, mortality, and fecundity could destabilize ptarmigan population dynamics in Iceland.

  9. Host-Parasite Interactions and Population Dynamics of Rock Ptarmigan

    PubMed Central

    Stenkewitz, Ute; Nielsen, Ólafur K.; Skírnisson, Karl; Stefánsson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    evidence that E. muta through time-lag in prevalence with respect to host population size and by showing significant relations with host body condition, mortality, and fecundity could destabilize ptarmigan population dynamics in Iceland. PMID:27870855

  10. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-06-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

  11. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    PubMed

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations.

  12. Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azevedo, F.; Coutinho, R. M.; Kraenkel, R. A.

    2015-05-01

    We explore the spatial dynamics of a population whose individuals go through life stages with very different dispersal capacities. We model it through a system of partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion kind, with nonlinear diffusion terms that may depend on population density and on the stage. This model includes a few key biological ingredients: growth and saturation, life stage structure, small population effects, and diffusion dependent on the stage. In particular, we consider that adults exhibit two distinct classes: one highly mobile and the other less mobile but with higher fecundity rate, and the development of juveniles into one or the other depends on population density. We parametrize the model with estimated parameters of an insect species, the brown planthopper. We focus on a situation akin to an invasion of the species in a new habitat and find that the front of invasion is led by the most mobile adult class. We also show that the trade-off between dispersal and fecundity leads to invasion speed attaining its maximum at an intermediate value of the diffusion coefficient of the most mobile class.

  13. Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

  14. Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning

    PubMed Central

    Dann, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity. PMID:27814352

  15. Algal culture studies for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Radmer, R.; Behrens, P.; Arnett, K.; Gladue, R.; Cox, J.; Lieberman, D.

    1987-01-01

    Microalgae are well-suited as a component of a Closed Environmental Life Support System (CELSS), since they can couple the closely related functions of food production and atmospheric regeneration. The objective was to provide a basis for predicting the response of CELSS algal cultures, and thus the food supply and air regeneration system, to changes in the culture parameters. Scenedesmus growth was measured as a function of light intensity, and the spectral dependence of light absorption by the algae as well as algal respiration in the light were determined as a function of cell concentration. These results were used to test and confirm a mathematical model that describes the productivity of an algal culture in terms of the competing processes of photosynthesis and respiration. The relationship of algal productivity to cell concentration was determined at different carbon dioxide concentrations, temperatures, and light intensities. The maximum productivity achieved by an air-grown culture was found to be within 10% of the computed maximum productivity, indicating that CO2 was very efficiently removed from the gas stream by the algal culture. Measurements of biomass productivity as a function of cell concentration at different light intensities indicated that both the productivity and efficiency of light utilization were greater at higher light intensities.

  16. Inferring network dynamics and neuron properties from population recordings.

    PubMed

    Linaro, Daniele; Storace, Marco; Mattia, Maurizio

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the computational capabilities of the nervous system means to "identify" its emergent multiscale dynamics. For this purpose, we propose a novel model-driven identification procedure and apply it to sparsely connected populations of excitatory integrate-and-fire neurons with spike frequency adaptation (SFA). Our method does not characterize the system from its microscopic elements in a bottom-up fashion, and does not resort to any linearization. We investigate networks as a whole, inferring their properties from the response dynamics of the instantaneous discharge rate to brief and aspecific supra-threshold stimulations. While several available methods assume generic expressions for the system as a black box, we adopt a mean-field theory for the evolution of the network transparently parameterized by identified elements (such as dynamic timescales), which are in turn non-trivially related to single-neuron properties. In particular, from the elicited transient responses, the input-output gain function of the neurons in the network is extracted and direct links to the microscopic level are made available: indeed, we show how to extract the decay time constant of the SFA, the absolute refractory period and the average synaptic efficacy. In addition and contrary to previous attempts, our method captures the system dynamics across bifurcations separating qualitatively different dynamical regimes. The robustness and the generality of the methodology is tested on controlled simulations, reporting a good agreement between theoretically expected and identified values. The assumptions behind the underlying theoretical framework make the method readily applicable to biological preparations like cultured neuron networks and in vitro brain slices.

  17. Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Krkošek, Martin; Hilborn, Ray; Peterman, Randall M.; Quinn, Thomas P.

    2011-01-01

    Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks. PMID:21147806

  18. Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Krkosek, Martin; Hilborn, Ray; Peterman, Randall M; Quinn, Thomas P

    2011-07-07

    Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks.

  19. Population dynamics of microbial communities in the zebrafish gut

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jemielita, Matthew; Taormina, Michael; Burns, Adam; Hampton, Jennifer; Rolig, Annah; Wiles, Travis; Guillemin, Karen; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer

    2015-03-01

    The vertebrate intestine is home to a diverse microbial community, which plays a crucial role in the development and health of its host. Little is known about the population dynamics and spatial structure of this ecosystem, including mechanisms of growth and interactions between species. We have constructed an experimental model system with which to explore these issues, using initially germ-free larval zebrafish inoculated with defined communities of fluorescently tagged bacteria. Using light sheet fluorescence microscopy combined with computational image analysis we observe and quantify the entire bacterial community of the intestine during the first 24 hours of colonization, during which time the bacterial population grows from tens to tens of thousands of bacteria. We identify both individual bacteria and clusters of bacteria, and quantify the growth rate and spatial distribution of these distinct subpopulations. We find that clusters of bacteria grow considerably faster than individuals and are located in specific regions of the intestine. Imaging colonization by two species reveals spatial segregation and competition. These data and their analysis highlight the importance of spatial organization in the establishment of gut microbial communities, and can provide inputs to physical models of real-world ecological dynamics.

  20. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  1. The Dynamics of Genetic Draft in Rapidly Adapting Populations

    PubMed Central

    Kosheleva, Katya; Desai, Michael M.

    2013-01-01

    The accumulation of beneficial mutations on competing genetic backgrounds in rapidly adapting populations has a striking impact on evolutionary dynamics. This effect, known as clonal interference, causes erratic fluctuations in the frequencies of observed mutations, randomizes the fixation times of successful mutations, and leaves distinct signatures on patterns of genetic variation. Here, we show how this form of “genetic draft” affects the forward-time dynamics of site frequencies in rapidly adapting asexual populations. We calculate the probability that mutations at individual sites shift in frequency over a characteristic timescale, extending Gillespie’s original model of draft to the case where many strongly selected beneficial mutations segregate simultaneously. We then derive the sojourn time of mutant alleles, the expected fixation time of successful mutants, and the site frequency spectrum of beneficial and neutral mutations. Finally, we show how this form of draft affects inferences in the McDonald–Kreitman test and how it relates to recent observations that some aspects of genetic diversity are described by the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent in the limit of very rapid adaptation. PMID:24002646

  2. An Adaptive Multipopulation Differential Evolution With Dynamic Population Reduction.

    PubMed

    Ali, Mostafa Z; Awad, Noor H; Suganthan, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam; Reynolds, Robert G

    2016-10-25

    Developing efficient evolutionary algorithms attracts many researchers due to the existence of optimization problems in numerous real-world applications. A new differential evolution algorithm, sTDE-dR, is proposed to improve the search quality, avoid premature convergence, and stagnation. The population is clustered in multiple tribes and utilizes an ensemble of different mutation and crossover strategies. In this algorithm, a competitive success-based scheme is introduced to determine the life cycle of each tribe and its participation ratio for the next generation. In each tribe, a different adaptive scheme is used to control the scaling factor and crossover rate. The mean success of each subgroup is used to calculate the ratio of its participation for the next generation. This guarantees that successful tribes with the best adaptive schemes are only the ones that guide the search toward the optimal solution. The population size is dynamically reduced using a dynamic reduction method. Comprehensive comparison of the proposed heuristic over a challenging set of benchmarks from the CEC2014 real parameter single objective competition against several state-of-the-art algorithms is performed. The results affirm robustness of the proposed approach compared to other state-of-the-art algorithms.

  3. Impact of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection on Chimpanzee Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Rudicell, Rebecca S.; Holland Jones, James; Wroblewski, Emily E.; Learn, Gerald H.; Li, Yingying; Robertson, Joel D.; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Kamenya, Shadrack; Pintea, Lilian; Mjungu, Deus C.; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V.; Mosser, Anna; Lehman, Clarence; Collins, D. Anthony; Keele, Brandon F.; Goodall, Jane; Hahn, Beatrice H.; Pusey, Anne E.; Wilson, Michael L.

    2010-01-01

    Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002–2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of −6.5% to −7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002–2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz

  4. Long-term effective population size dynamics of an intensively monitored vertebrate population

    PubMed Central

    Mueller, A-K; Chakarov, N; Krüger, O; Hoffman, J I

    2016-01-01

    Long-term genetic data from intensively monitored natural populations are important for understanding how effective population sizes (Ne) can vary over time. We therefore genotyped 1622 common buzzard (Buteo buteo) chicks sampled over 12 consecutive years (2002–2013 inclusive) at 15 microsatellite loci. This data set allowed us to both compare single-sample with temporal approaches and explore temporal patterns in the effective number of parents that produced each cohort in relation to the observed population dynamics. We found reasonable consistency between linkage disequilibrium-based single-sample and temporal estimators, particularly during the latter half of the study, but no clear relationship between annual Ne estimates () and census sizes. We also documented a 14-fold increase in between 2008 and 2011, a period during which the census size doubled, probably reflecting a combination of higher adult survival and immigration from further afield. Our study thus reveals appreciable temporal heterogeneity in the effective population size of a natural vertebrate population, confirms the need for long-term studies and cautions against drawing conclusions from a single sample. PMID:27553455

  5. [Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

    PubMed

    Burskiĭ, O V; Demidova, E Iu; Morkovin, A A

    2014-01-01

    We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices.

  6. Theoretical lessons for increasing algal biofuel: Evolution of oil accumulation to avert carbon starvation in microalgae.

    PubMed

    Akita, Tetsuya; Kamo, Masashi

    2015-09-07

    Microalgae-derived oil is considered as a feasible alternative to fossil-derived oil. To produce more algal biomass, both algal population size and oil accumulation in algae must be maximized. Most of the previous studies have concentrated on only one of these issues, and relatively little attention has been devoted to considering the tradeoff between them. In this paper, we first theoretically investigated evolutionary reasons for oil accumulation and then by coupling population and evolutionary dynamics, we searched for conditions that may provide better yields. Using our model, we assume that algae allocate assimilated carbon to growth, maintenance, and carbon accumulation as biofuel and that the amount of essential materials (carbon and nitrate) are strongly linked in fixed proportions. Such stoichiometrically explicit models showed that (i) algae with more oil show slower population growth; therefore, the use of such algae results in lower total yields of biofuel and (ii) oil accumulation in algae is caused by carbon and not nitrate starvation. The latter can be interpreted as a strategy for avoiding the risk of increased death rate by carbon starvation. Our model also showed that both strong carbon starvation and moderately limited nitrate will promote total biofuel production. Our results highlight considering the life-history traits for a higher total yields of biofuel, which leads to insight into both establishing a prolonged culture and collection of desired strains from a natural environment.

  7. Biotic interactions as drivers of algal origin and evolution.

    PubMed

    Brodie, Juliet; Ball, Steven G; Bouget, François-Yves; Chan, Cheong Xin; De Clerck, Olivier; Cock, J Mark; Gachon, Claire; Grossman, Arthur R; Mock, Thomas; Raven, John A; Saha, Mahasweta; Smith, Alison G; Vardi, Assaf; Yoon, Hwan Su; Bhattacharya, Debashish

    2017-08-31

    Contents 1 I. 2 II. 2 III. 7 IV. 9 9 References 9 SUMMARY: Biotic interactions underlie life's diversity and are the lynchpin to understanding its complexity and resilience within an ecological niche. Algal biologists have embraced this paradigm, and studies building on the explosive growth in omics and cell biology methods have facilitated the in-depth analysis of nonmodel organisms and communities from a variety of ecosystems. In turn, these advances have enabled a major revision of our understanding of the origin and evolution of photosynthesis in eukaryotes, bacterial-algal interactions, control of massive algal blooms in the ocean, and the maintenance and degradation of coral reefs. Here, we review some of the most exciting developments in the field of algal biotic interactions and identify challenges for scientists in the coming years. We foresee the development of an algal knowledgebase that integrates ecosystem-wide omics data and the development of molecular tools/resources to perform functional analyses of individuals in isolation and in populations. These assets will allow us to move beyond mechanistic studies of a single species towards understanding the interactions amongst algae and other organisms in both the laboratory and the field. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  8. Effects of acidification on algal assemblages in temporary ponds

    SciTech Connect

    Glackin, M.E.; Pratt, J.R.

    1994-12-31

    Atmospheric deposition monitoring in Pennsylvania has characterized a steep gradient of acidic ion depositions across the north-central portion of the state. This study evaluated acidification effects on the composition of algal assemblages in temporary ponds in two forested areas exposed to atmospheric deposition that varied in degree of acidity. Artificial substrates were used to sample and compare the algal assemblages in the two areas. Colonized communities were also transplanted to lower pH ponds to observe changes in species composition. A laboratory microcosm experiment manipulating pH was conducted to reduce the variables that differed between the two areas. Fewer algal taxa were present in lower pH ponds, on colonized substrates after transplant to lower pH ponds, and in lower pH laboratory treatments. Species composition was altered in the lower pH conditions. Most taxa that were excluded from the lower pH ponds naturally also did not survive when experimentally introduced to those conditions. These results suggest that acidification of temporary ponds can alter the structure of algal communities. There is interest in a possible link between acid deposition and reports of worldwide declines in amphibian populations. Algae are an important food source for larval amphibians, such as the wood frog, which require temporary ponds to breed. Changes in algal species composition could potentially impact the temporary pond and forest ecosystem.

  9. [Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

    PubMed

    Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

    2015-01-01

    The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

  10. A novel single-parameter approach for forecasting algal blooms.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Xi; He, Junyu; Huang, Haomin; Miller, Todd R; Christakos, George; Reichwaldt, Elke S; Ghadouani, Anas; Lin, Shengpan; Xu, Xinhua; Shi, Jiyan

    2017-01-01

    Harmful algal blooms frequently occur globally, and forecasting could constitute an essential proactive strategy for bloom control. To decrease the cost of aquatic environmental monitoring and increase the accuracy of bloom forecasting, a novel single-parameter approach combining wavelet analysis with artificial neural networks (WNN) was developed and verified based on daily online monitoring datasets of algal density in the Siling Reservoir, China and Lake Winnebago, U.S.A. Firstly, a detailed modeling process was illustrated using the forecasting of cyanobacterial cell density in the Chinese reservoir as an example. Three WNN models occupying various prediction time intervals were optimized through model training using an early stopped training approach. All models performed well in fitting historical data and predicting the dynamics of cyanobacterial cell density, with the best model predicting cyanobacteria density one-day ahead (r = 0.986 and mean absolute error = 0.103 × 10(4) cells mL(-1)). Secondly, the potential of this novel approach was further confirmed by the precise predictions of algal biomass dynamics measured as chl a in both study sites, demonstrating its high performance in forecasting algal blooms, including cyanobacteria as well as other blooming species. Thirdly, the WNN model was compared to current algal forecasting methods (i.e. artificial neural networks, autoregressive integrated moving average model), and was found to be more accurate. In addition, the application of this novel single-parameter approach is cost effective as it requires only a buoy-mounted fluorescent probe, which is merely a fraction (∼15%) of the cost of a typical auto-monitoring system. As such, the newly developed approach presents a promising and cost-effective tool for the future prediction and management of harmful algal blooms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. World Trade, disease and Florida's animal populations. The changing dynamics.

    PubMed

    Coffman, L M

    2000-01-01

    One of Florida's three leading economic industries is agriculture. Agriculture feeds and enhances the lives of millions of people in Florida, the United States, and the entire world. Agriculture in Florida results in more than $6 billion in farm cash receipts, employment for more than 60,000 people a month, more than $18 billion in farm-related economic activity and stretches from the farm gate to the state's supermarkets with an impact of nearly $45 billion. The domestic and wild animal populations of Florida, our unique relationship to the Caribbean, Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Central and South America, as well as tourism, diverse human population growth and immigration, all add to the complexity of an environment capable of establishing many animals, animal pests and diseases not native to the United States. Never before have the dynamics of disease control involved as much challenge and diversity. Is the balance at risk, or is the risk over-balanced? Can science, economics and politics blend to maintain this balance? How will the balance affect world trade, disease control and the animal populations of Florida?

  12. Parsimonious snow model explains reindeer population dynamics and ranging behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, J.; Aanes, R.; Hansen, B. B.; Loe, L.; Severinsen, T.; Stien, A.

    2008-12-01

    Winter snow is a key factor affecting polar ecosystems. One example is the strong negative correlation of winter precipitation with fluctuations in population in some high-arctic animal populations. Ice layers within and at the base of the snowpack have particularly deleterious effects on such populations. Svalbard reindeer have small home ranges and are vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are locked, reindeer are faced with the decision of staying, living off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice. Both strategies may inhibit reproduction and increase mortality, leading to population declines. Here we assess the impact of winter snow and ice on the population dynamics of an isolated herd of Svalbard reindeer near Ny-Ålesund, monitored annually since 1978, with a retrospective analysis of the winter snowpack. Because there are no long-term observational records of snow or snow properties, such as ice layers, we must recourse to snowpack modeling. A parsimonious model of snow and ground-ice thickness is driven with daily temperature and precipitation data collected at a nearby weather station. The model uses the degree-day concept and has three adjustable parameters which are tuned to correlate model snow and ground-ice thicknesses to the limited observations available: April snow accumulation measurements on two local glaciers, and a limited number of ground-ice observations made in recent years. Parameter values used are comparable to those reported elsewhere. We find that modeled mean winter ground-ice thickness explains a significant percentage of the observed variance in reindeer population growth rate. Adding other explanatory parameters, such as modeled mean winter snowpack thickness or previous years' population size does not significanly improve the relation. Furthermore, positioning data from a small subset of reindeer show that model icing events are

  13. Sapphire Energy - Integrated Algal Biorefinery

    SciTech Connect

    White, Rebecca L.; Tyler, Mike

    2015-07-22

    Sapphire Energy, Inc. (SEI) is a leader in large-scale photosynthetic algal biomass production, with a strongly cohesive research, development, and operations program. SEI takes a multidiscipline approach to integrate lab-based strain selection, cultivation and harvest and production scale, and extraction for the production of Green Crude oil, a drop in replacement for traditional crude oil.. SEI’s technical accomplishments since 2007 have produced a multifunctional platform that can address needs for fuel, feed, and other higher value products. Figure 1 outlines SEI’s commercialization process, including Green Crude production and refinement to drop in fuel replacements. The large scale algal biomass production facility, the SEI Integrated Algal Biorefinery (IABR), was built in Luna County near Columbus, New Mexico (see fig 2). The extraction unit was located at the existing SEI facility in Las Cruces, New Mexico, approximately 95 miles from the IABR. The IABR facility was constructed on time and on budget, and the extraction unit expansion to accommodate the biomass output from the IABR was completed in October 2012. The IABR facility uses open pond cultivation with a proprietary harvesting method to produce algal biomass; this biomass is then shipped to the extraction facility for conversion to Green Crude. The operation of the IABR and the extraction facilities has demonstrated the critical integration of traditional agricultural techniques with algae cultivation knowledge for algal biomass production, and the successful conversion of the biomass to Green Crude. All primary unit operations are de-risked, and at a scale suitable for process demonstration. The results are stable, reliable, and long-term cultivation of strains for year round algal biomass production. From June 2012 to November 2014, the IABR and extraction facilities produced 524 metric tons (MT) of biomass (on a dry weight basis), and 2,587 gallons of Green Crude. Additionally, the IABR

  14. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-11-01

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

  15. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (FST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (HE  = 0.583 in KM and HE  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (IAS >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (IAS  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and IAS = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

  16. Plasmodium vivax population structure and transmission dynamics in Sabah Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A (S) >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A (S)  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A (S) = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for

  17. Modelling Food and Population Dynamics in Honey Bee Colonies

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Barron, Andrew B.; Myerscough, Mary R.

    2013-01-01

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are increasingly in demand as pollinators for various key agricultural food crops, but globally honey bee populations are in decline, and honey bee colony failure rates have increased. This scenario highlights a need to understand the conditions in which colonies flourish and in which colonies fail. To aid this investigation we present a compartment model of bee population dynamics to explore how food availability and bee death rates interact to determine colony growth and development. Our model uses simple differential equations to represent the transitions of eggs laid by the queen to brood, then hive bees and finally forager bees, and the process of social inhibition that regulates the rate at which hive bees begin to forage. We assume that food availability can influence both the number of brood successfully reared to adulthood and the rate at which bees transition from hive duties to foraging. The model predicts complex interactions between food availability and forager death rates in shaping colony fate. Low death rates and high food availability results in stable bee populations at equilibrium (with population size strongly determined by forager death rate) but consistently increasing food reserves. At higher death rates food stores in a colony settle at a finite equilibrium reflecting the balance of food collection and food use. When forager death rates exceed a critical threshold the colony fails but residual food remains. Our model presents a simple mathematical framework for exploring the interactions of food and forager mortality on colony fate, and provides the mathematical basis for more involved simulation models of hive performance. PMID:23667418

  18. Modelling food and population dynamics in honey bee colonies.

    PubMed

    Khoury, David S; Barron, Andrew B; Myerscough, Mary R

    2013-01-01

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are increasingly in demand as pollinators for various key agricultural food crops, but globally honey bee populations are in decline, and honey bee colony failure rates have increased. This scenario highlights a need to understand the conditions in which colonies flourish and in which colonies fail. To aid this investigation we present a compartment model of bee population dynamics to explore how food availability and bee death rates interact to determine colony growth and development. Our model uses simple differential equations to represent the transitions of eggs laid by the queen to brood, then hive bees and finally forager bees, and the process of social inhibition that regulates the rate at which hive bees begin to forage. We assume that food availability can influence both the number of brood successfully reared to adulthood and the rate at which bees transition from hive duties to foraging. The model predicts complex interactions between food availability and forager death rates in shaping colony fate. Low death rates and high food availability results in stable bee populations at equilibrium (with population size strongly determined by forager death rate) but consistently increasing food reserves. At higher death rates food stores in a colony settle at a finite equilibrium reflecting the balance of food collection and food use. When forager death rates exceed a critical threshold the colony fails but residual food remains. Our model presents a simple mathematical framework for exploring the interactions of food and forager mortality on colony fate, and provides the mathematical basis for more involved simulation models of hive performance.

  19. Homeochaos: dynamics stability of a symbiotic network with population dynamics and evolving mutation rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneko, Kunihiko; Ikegami, Takashi

    1992-06-01

    Evolution of mutation rates is studied, in a population model with mutation of species coded by bit sequences and mutation rates. Even without interaction among species, the mutation rate is initially enhanced to search for fitted species and then is lowered towards zero. This enhancement opens a possibility of automatic simulated annealing. With the interaction among species (hosts versus parasites), high mutation rates are sustained. The rates go up with the interaction strength abruptly if the fitness landscape is rugged. A large cluster of species, connected by mutation, is formed by a sustained high mutation rate. With the formation of this symbiotic network resolved is the paradox of mutation rates; paradox on the stability of a rule to change itself. Population dynamics of each species shows high-dimensional chaos with small positive Lyapunov exponents. Stability of our symbiotic network is dynamically sustained through this weak high-dimensional chaos, termed “homeochaos”.

  20. Bifurcation theory, adaptive dynamics and dynamic energy budget-structured populations of iteroparous species

    PubMed Central

    Kooi, B. W.; van der Meer, J.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we describe a technique to evaluate the evolutionary dynamics of the timing of spawning for iteroparous species. The life cycle of the species consists of three life stages, embryonic, juvenile and adult whereby the transitions of life stages (gametogenesis, birth and maturation) occur at species-specific sizes. The dynamics of the population is studied in a semi-chemostat environment where the inflowing food concentration is periodic (annual). A dynamic energy budget-based continuous-time model is used to describe the uptake of the food, storage in reserves and allocation of the energy to growth, maintenance, development (embryos, juveniles) and reproduction (adults). A discrete-event process is used for modelling reproduction. At a fixed spawning date of the year, the reproduction buffer is emptied and a new cohort is formed by eggs with a fixed size and energy content. The population consists of cohorts: for each year one consisting of individuals with the same age which die after their last reproduction event. The resulting mathematical model is a finite-dimensional set of ordinary differential equations with fixed 1-year periodic boundary conditions yielding a stroboscopic map. We will study the evolutionary development of the population using the adaptive dynamics approach. The trait is the timing of spawning. Pairwise and mutual invasibility plots are calculated using bifurcation analysis of the stroboscopic map. The evolutionary singular strategy value belonging to the evolutionary endpoint for the trait allows for an interpretation of the reproduction strategy of the population. In a case study, parameter values from the literature for the bivalve Macoma balthica are used. PMID:20921055

  1. Neural Population Dynamics Modeled by Mean-Field Graphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozma, Robert; Puljic, Marko

    2011-09-01

    In this work we apply random graph theory approach to describe neural population dynamics. There are important advantages of using random graph theory approach in addition to ordinary and partial differential equations. The mathematical theory of large-scale random graphs provides an efficient tool to describe transitions between high- and low-dimensional spaces. Recent advances in studying neural correlates of higher cognition indicate the significance of sudden changes in space-time neurodynamics, which can be efficiently described as phase transitions in the neuropil medium. Phase transitions are rigorously defined mathematically on random graph sequences and they can be naturally generalized to a class of percolation processes called neuropercolation. In this work we employ mean-field graphs with given vertex degree distribution and edge strength distribution. We demonstrate the emergence of collective oscillations in the style of brains.

  2. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.

    2014-01-01

    Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

  3. Wave trains in a model of gypsy moth population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilder, J. W.; Vasquez, D. A.; Christie, I.; Colbert, J. J.

    1995-12-01

    A recent model of gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)] populations led to the observation of traveling waves in a one-dimensional spatial model. In this work, these waves are studied in more detail and their nature investigated. It was observed that when there are no spatial effects the model behaves chaotically under certain conditions. Under the same conditions, when diffusion is allowed, traveling waves develop. The biomass densities involved in the model, when examined at one point in the spatial domain, are found to correspond to a limit cycle lying on the surface of the chaotic attractor of the spatially homogeneous model. Also observed are wave trains that have modulating maxima, and which when examined at one point in the spatial domain show a quasiperiodic temporal behavior. This complex behavior is determined to be due to the interaction of the traveling wave and the chaotic background dynamics.

  4. Dynamic modeling of cellular populations within iBioSim.

    PubMed

    Stevens, Jason T; Myers, Chris J

    2013-05-17

    As the complexity of synthetic genetic circuits increases, modeling is becoming a necessary first step to inform subsequent experimental efforts. In recent years, the design automation community has developed a wealth of computational tools for assisting experimentalists in designing and analyzing new genetic circuits at several scales. However, existing software primarily caters to either the DNA- or single-cell level, with little support for the multicellular level. To address this need, the iBioSim software package has been enhanced to provide support for modeling, simulating, and visualizing dynamic cellular populations in a two-dimensional space. This capacity is fully integrated into the software, capitalizing on iBioSim's strengths in modeling, simulating, and analyzing single-celled systems.

  5. Artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic multi-population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ming; Ji, Zhicheng; Wang, Yan

    2017-07-01

    To improve the convergence rate and make a balance between the global search and local turning abilities, this paper proposes a decentralized form of artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm with dynamic multi-populations by means of fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering. Each subpopulation periodically enlarges with the same size during the search process, and the overlapping individuals among different subareas work for delivering information acting as exploring the search space with diffusion of solutions. Moreover, a Gaussian-based search equation with redefined local attractor is proposed to further accelerate the diffusion of the best solution and guide the search towards potential areas. Experimental results on a set of benchmarks demonstrate the competitive performance of our proposed approach.

  6. Study of a mixed dispersal population dynamics model

    SciTech Connect

    Chugunova, Marina; Jadamba, Baasansuren; Kao, Chiu -Yen; Klymko, Christine F.; Thomas, Evelyn; Zhao, Bingyu

    2016-08-27

    In this study, we consider a mixed dispersal model with periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions and its corresponding linear eigenvalue problem. This model describes the time evolution of a population which disperses both locally and non-locally. We investigate how long time dynamics depend on the parameter values. Furthermore, we study the minimization of the principal eigenvalue under the constraints that the resource function is bounded from above and below, and with a fixed total integral. Biologically, this minimization problem is motivated by the question of determining the optimal spatial arrangement of favorable and unfavorable regions for the species to die out more slowly or survive more easily. Our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal favorable region tends to be a simply-connected domain. Numerous results are shown to demonstrate various scenarios of optimal favorable regions for periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions.

  7. Study of a mixed dispersal population dynamics model

    SciTech Connect

    Chugunova, Marina; Jadamba, Baasansuren; Kao, Chiu -Yen; Klymko, Christine F.; Thomas, Evelyn; Zhao, Bingyu

    2016-08-27

    In this study, we consider a mixed dispersal model with periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions and its corresponding linear eigenvalue problem. This model describes the time evolution of a population which disperses both locally and non-locally. We investigate how long time dynamics depend on the parameter values. Furthermore, we study the minimization of the principal eigenvalue under the constraints that the resource function is bounded from above and below, and with a fixed total integral. Biologically, this minimization problem is motivated by the question of determining the optimal spatial arrangement of favorable and unfavorable regions for the species to die out more slowly or survive more easily. Our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal favorable region tends to be a simply-connected domain. Numerous results are shown to demonstrate various scenarios of optimal favorable regions for periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions.

  8. Study of a mixed dispersal population dynamics model

    DOE PAGES

    Chugunova, Marina; Jadamba, Baasansuren; Kao, Chiu -Yen; ...

    2016-08-27

    In this study, we consider a mixed dispersal model with periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions and its corresponding linear eigenvalue problem. This model describes the time evolution of a population which disperses both locally and non-locally. We investigate how long time dynamics depend on the parameter values. Furthermore, we study the minimization of the principal eigenvalue under the constraints that the resource function is bounded from above and below, and with a fixed total integral. Biologically, this minimization problem is motivated by the question of determining the optimal spatial arrangement of favorable and unfavorable regions for the species to diemore » out more slowly or survive more easily. Our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal favorable region tends to be a simply-connected domain. Numerous results are shown to demonstrate various scenarios of optimal favorable regions for periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions.« less

  9. Efficient methods for studying stochastic disease and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Keeling, M J; Ross, J V

    2009-01-01

    Stochastic ecological and epidemiological models are now routinely used to inform management and decision making throughout conservation and public-health. A difficulty with the use of such models is the need to resort to simulation methods when the population size (and hence the size of the state space) becomes large, resulting in the need for a large amount of computation to achieve statistical confidence in results. Here we present two methods that allow evaluation of all quantities associated with one- (and higher) dimensional Markov processes with large state spaces. We illustrate these methods using SIS disease dynamics and studying species that are affected by catastrophic events. The methods allow the possibility of extending exact Markov methods to real-world problems, providing techniques for efficient parameterisation and subsequent analysis.

  10. "Population dynamics of crustaceans": introduction to the symposium.

    PubMed

    Buhay, Jennifer E

    2011-10-01

    Crustaceans are a globally-distributed faunal group, found across all habitats from the equator to the poles. They are an ideal focal assemblage for assessment of the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic disturbance on nonmodel systems, such as how sea currents influence the movements of zooplankton communities in the open ocean, or how ecosystem processes affect phytoplanktonic species with restricted geographic distributions across a cluster of island lakes that could be a new model system for studies of speciation. This symposium introduced early-career researchers working in the fields of phylogeography, ecogenomics, fisheries management, and ecosystem processes with the aim of highlighting the different genetic and ecological approaches to the study of population dynamics of freshwater, estuarine, and marine crustacean species.

  11. Dynamical criticality in the collective activity of a neural population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mora, Thierry

    The past decade has seen a wealth of physiological data suggesting that neural networks may behave like critical branching processes. Concurrently, the collective activity of neurons has been studied using explicit mappings to classic statistical mechanics models such as disordered Ising models, allowing for the study of their thermodynamics, but these efforts have ignored the dynamical nature of neural activity. I will show how to reconcile these two approaches by learning effective statistical mechanics models of the full history of the collective activity of a neuron population directly from physiological data, treating time as an additional dimension. Applying this technique to multi-electrode recordings from retinal ganglion cells, and studying the thermodynamics of the inferred model, reveals a peak in specific heat reminiscent of a second-order phase transition.

  12. Building dynamic population graph for accurate correspondence detection.

    PubMed

    Du, Shaoyi; Guo, Yanrong; Sanroma, Gerard; Ni, Dong; Wu, Guorong; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-12-01

    In medical imaging studies, there is an increasing trend for discovering the intrinsic anatomical difference across individual subjects in a dataset, such as hand images for skeletal bone age estimation. Pair-wise matching is often used to detect correspondences between each individual subject and a pre-selected model image with manually-placed landmarks. However, the large anatomical variability across individual subjects can easily compromise such pair-wise matching step. In this paper, we present a new framework to simultaneously detect correspondences among a population of individual subjects, by propagating all manually-placed landmarks from a small set of model images through a dynamically constructed image graph. Specifically, we first establish graph links between models and individual subjects according to pair-wise shape similarity (called as forward step). Next, we detect correspondences for the individual subjects with direct links to any of model images, which is achieved by a new multi-model correspondence detection approach based on our recently-published sparse point matching method. To correct those inaccurate correspondences, we further apply an error detection mechanism to automatically detect wrong correspondences and then update the image graph accordingly (called as backward step). After that, all subject images with detected correspondences are included into the set of model images, and the above two steps of graph expansion and error correction are repeated until accurate correspondences for all subject images are established. Evaluations on real hand X-ray images demonstrate that our proposed method using a dynamic graph construction approach can achieve much higher accuracy and robustness, when compared with the state-of-the-art pair-wise correspondence detection methods as well as a similar method but using static population graph.

  13. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

    PubMed Central

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

    2013-01-01

    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  14. Algal Systems for Hydrogen Photoproduction

    SciTech Connect

    Ghirardi, Maria L

    2015-10-08

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), under the guidance of Drs. Michael Seibert (retired, Fellow Emeritus) and Maria Ghirardi (Fellow), led 15 years of research addressing the issue of algal H2 photoproduction. This project resulted in greatly increased rates and yields of algal hydrogen production; increased understanding of the H2 metabolism in the green alga, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii; expanded our knowledge of other physiological aspects relevant to sustained algal photosynthetic H2 production; led to the genetic identification, cloning and manipulation of algal hydrogenase genes; and contributed to a broader, fundamental understanding of the technical and scientific challenges to improving the conversion efficiencies in order to reach the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fuel Cell Technologies Office’s targets. Some of the tangible results are: (i) 64 publications and 6 patents, (ii) international visibility to NREL, (iii) reinvigoration of national and international biohydrogen research, and (iv) research progress that helped stimulate new funding from other DOE and non-DOE programs, including the AFOSR and the DOE Office of Science.

  15. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the Baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation.

    PubMed

    Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Eero, Margit; Blenckner, Thorsten; Tomczak, Maciej T; Niiranen, Susa

    2012-09-01

    Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.

  16. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery.

    PubMed

    McElreath, Richard; Smaldino, Paul E

    2015-01-01

    Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts-suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics.

  17. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery

    PubMed Central

    McElreath, Richard; Smaldino, Paul E.

    2015-01-01

    Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts—suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics. PMID:26308448

  18. Population dynamics of cancer cells with cell state conversions

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Da; Wu, Dingming; Li, Zhe; Qian, Minping; Zhang, Michael Q.

    2015-01-01

    Cancer stem cell (CSC) theory suggests a cell-lineage structure in tumor cells in which CSCs are capable of giving rise to the other non-stem cancer cells (NSCCs) but not vice versa. However, an alternative scenario of bidirectional interconversions between CSCs and NSCCs was proposed very recently. Here we present a general population model of cancer cells by integrating conventional cell divisions with direct conversions between different cell states, namely, not only can CSCs differentiate into NSCCs by asymmetric cell division, NSCCs can also dedifferentiate into CSCs by cell state conversion. Our theoretical model is validated when applying the model to recent experimental data. It is also found that the transient increase in CSCs proportion initiated from the purified NSCCs subpopulation cannot be well predicted by the conventional CSC model where the conversion from NSCCs to CSCs is forbidden, implying that the cell state conversion is required especially for the transient dynamics. The theoretical analysis also gives the condition such that our general model can be equivalently reduced into a simple Markov chain with only cell state transitions keeping the same cell proportion dynamics. PMID:26085954

  19. Far from random: dynamical groupings among the NEO population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de la Fuente Marcos, C.; de la Fuente Marcos, R.

    2016-03-01

    Among the near-Earth object (NEO) population, there are comets and active asteroids which are sources of fragments that initially move together; in addition, some NEOs follow orbits temporarily trapped in a web of secular resonances. These facts contribute to increasing the risk of meteoroid strikes on Earth, making its proper quantification difficult. The identification and subsequent study of groups of small NEOs that appear to move in similar trajectories are necessary steps in improving our understanding of the impact risk associated with meteoroids. Here, we present results of a search for statistically significant dynamical groupings among the NEO population. Our Monte Carlo-based methodology recovers well-documented groupings like the Taurid Complex or the one resulting from the split comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, and new ones that may have been the source of past impacts. Among the most conspicuous are the Mjolnir and Ptah groups, perhaps the source of recent impact events like Almahata Sitta and Chelyabinsk, respectively. Meteoroid 2014 AA, that hit the Earth on 2014 January 2, could have its origin in a marginally significant grouping associated with Bennu. We find that most of the substructure present within the orbital domain of the NEOs is of resonant nature, probably induced by secular resonances and the Kozai mechanism that confine these objects into specific paths with well-defined perihelia.

  20. Sensory dynamics of visual hallucinations in the normal population

    PubMed Central

    Pearson, Joel; Chiou, Rocco; Rogers, Sebastian; Wicken, Marcus; Heitmann, Stewart; Ermentrout, Bard

    2016-01-01

    Hallucinations occur in both normal and clinical populations. Due to their unpredictability and complexity, the mechanisms underlying hallucinations remain largely untested. Here we show that visual hallucinations can be induced in the normal population by visual flicker, limited to an annulus that constricts content complexity to simple moving grey blobs, allowing objective mechanistic investigation. Hallucination strength peaked at ~11 Hz flicker and was dependent on cortical processing. Hallucinated motion speed increased with flicker rate, when mapped onto visual cortex it was independent of eccentricity, underwent local sensory adaptation and showed the same bistable and mnemonic dynamics as sensory perception. A neural field model with motion selectivity provides a mechanism for both hallucinations and perception. Our results demonstrate that hallucinations can be studied objectively, and they share multiple mechanisms with sensory perception. We anticipate that this assay will be critical to test theories of human consciousness and clinical models of hallucination. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.17072.001 PMID:27726845

  1. Dynamic equilibrium of reconstituting hematopoietic stem cell populations.

    PubMed

    O'Quigley, John

    2010-12-01

    Clonal dominance in hematopoietic stem cell populations is an important question of interest but not one we can directly answer. Any estimates are based on indirect measurement. For marked populations, we can equate empirical and theoretical moments for binomial sampling, in particular we can use the well-known formula for the sampling variation of a binomial proportion. The empirical variance itself cannot always be reliably estimated and some caution is needed. We describe the difficulties here and identify ready solutions which only require appropriate use of variance-stabilizing transformations. From these we obtain estimators for the steady state, or dynamic equilibrium, of the number of hematopoietic stem cells involved in repopulating the marrow. The calculations themselves are not too involved. We give the distribution theory for the estimator as well as simple approximations for practical application. As an illustration, we rework on data recently gathered to address the question as to whether or not reconstitution of marrow grafts in the clinical setting might be considered to be oligoclonal.

  2. Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

    PubMed

    Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

    2015-11-01

    Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be

  3. Modelling Multi-Pulse Population Dynamics from Ultrafast Spectroscopy

    PubMed Central

    van Wilderen, Luuk J. G. W.; Lincoln, Craig N.; van Thor, Jasper J.

    2011-01-01

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  4. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    van Wilderen, Luuk J G W; Lincoln, Craig N; van Thor, Jasper J

    2011-03-21

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  5. The role of resting cysts in Alexandrium minutum population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estrada, Marta; Solé, Jordi; Anglès, Sílvia; Garcés, Esther

    2010-02-01

    The role of resting cysts on the development of Alexandrium minutum blooms in a typical Mediterranean semi-enclosed water body (Arenys de Mar Harbor, NW Mediterranean) was studied by means of matrix and dynamic population models. We used a series of scenarios, constrained when possible by experimentally measured parameters to test whether excystment and encystment fluxes and changes in the dormancy period had a major effect on bloom intensity and duration. The results of the simulations highlighted the importance of knowing not only the magnitude and variability of growth and life-cycle transition rates, but also those of loss rates (both in the water column and in the sediment) due to physical or biological factors. Given the maximum encystment rates determined for A. minutum in the study area (0.01 d -1), this process contributed to reduce the peak concentrations of vegetative cells but did not have a dominant effect on bloom termination. Excystment fluxes could contribute to enhance population densities of vegetative cells during times or low or negative net growth rate and during the initial phases of a bloom, but once exponential growth had started, additional excystment had negligible effect on bloom magnitude. However, even if cysts did not contribute to larger blooms, they could represent a safety mechanism for reintroduction of the species when the vegetative cell population went extinct due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Increasing the dormancy time exposed newly formed cysts to a longer period of losses in the sediment that reduced the concentration of excystment-ready sediment cysts and decreased excystment fluxes. More complex models will be needed to explore the implications of different life-cycle strategies in a wider natural ecological context.

  6. Effects of fertilizers used in agricultural fields on algal blooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chakraborty, Subhendu; Tiwari, P. K.; Sasmal, S. K.; Misra, A. K.; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

    2017-06-01

    The increasing occurrence of algal blooms and their negative ecological impacts have led to intensified monitoring activities. This needs the proper identification of the most responsible factor/factors for the bloom formation. However, in natural systems, algal blooms result from a combination of factors and from observation it is difficult to identify the most important one. In the present paper, using a mathematical model we compare the effects of three human induced factors (fertilizer input in agricultural field, eutrophication due to other sources than fertilizers, and overfishing) on the bloom dynamics and DO level. By applying a sophisticated sensitivity analysis technique, we found that the increasing use of fertilizers in agricultural field causes more rapid algal growth and decreases DO level much faster than eutrophication from other sources and overfishing. We also look at the mechanisms how fertilizer input rate affects the algal bloom dynamics and DO level. The model can be helpful for the policy makers in determining the influential factors responsible for the bloom formation.

  7. Statistical mechanics of epidemics and population dynamics on networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joo, Jaewook

    After a short introduction to the modeling of epidemics and population dynamics, we investigate in chapter 2, the time-evolution and steady states of an epidemic model (susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible) on a network having the topology of the hypercubic lattice. We compare the behavior of this system, obtained from computer simulations, with those obtained from the mean-field approximation and pair-approximation. We find that the latter is significantly better than the former. In chapter 3, we study the behavior of a simple epidemic process (susceptible-infected-susceptible) on realistic networks in which vertices represent individuals and edges the interactions between them. Of particular interest are scale free networks with power-law distribution of degree, the number of edges emanating from a vertex. Considering cases where the transmission of infection between vertices depends on their degree, we introduce a saturation function which reduces the infection transmission rate across an edge leading to a node with high connectivity. This leads to a finite epidemic threshold on scale free networks with infinite second moment degree distribution above which the endemic infected state will be sustained and below which the disease dies out. In chapter 4, we study the time evolution and stationary states of a stochastic population model (contact process) with spatial heterogeneity and imposed drift (wind) on one- and two-dimensional lattices. We consider in particular a situation in which space is divided into two regions: an oasis and a desert (low and high death rates). Depending on the values of the drift and other parameters the population in the stationary state will be zero, localized, or delocalized. Finally, in appendix A we discuss a very different delocalized to localized type phase transition: the Mott metal insulator transition occurring in a half-filled single-band Hubbard model on a Bethe lattice. In the limit of infinite lattice coordination

  8. Dynamical evolution and spatial mixing of multiple population globular clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesperini, Enrico; McMillan, Stephen L. W.; D'Antona, Francesca; D'Ercole, Annibale

    2013-03-01

    Numerous spectroscopic and photometric observational studies have provided strong evidence for the widespread presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. In this paper, we study the long-term dynamical evolution of multiple population clusters, focusing on the evolution of the spatial distributions of the first- (FG) and second-generation (SG) stars. In previous studies, we have suggested that SG stars formed from the ejecta of FG AGB stars are expected initially to be concentrated in the cluster inner regions. Here, by means of N-body simulations, we explore the time-scales and the dynamics of the spatial mixing of the FG and the SG populations and their dependence on the SG initial concentration. Our simulations show that, as the evolution proceeds, the radial profile of the SG/FG number ratio, NSG/NFG, is characterized by three regions: (1) a flat inner part; (2) a declining part in which FG stars are increasingly dominant and (3) an outer region where the NSG/NFG profile flattens again (the NSG/NFG profile may rise slightly again in the outermost cluster regions). Until mixing is complete and the NSG/NFG profile is flat over the entire cluster, the radial variation of NSG/NFG implies that the fraction of SG stars determined by observations covering a limited range of radial distances is not, in general, equal to the SG global fraction, (NSG/NFG)glob. The distance at which NSG/NFG equals (NSG/NFG)glob is approximately between 1 and 2 cluster half-mass radii. The time-scale for complete mixing depends on the SG initial concentration, but in all cases complete mixing is expected only for clusters in advanced evolutionary phases, having lost at least 60-70 per cent of their mass due to two-body relaxation (in addition to the early FG loss due to the cluster expansion triggered by SNII ejecta and gas expulsion).The results of our simulations suggest that in many Galactic globular clusters the SG should still be more spatially concentrated than the

  9. Prey evolution on the time scale of predator-prey dynamics revealed by allele-specific quantitative PCR.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Justin R; Ellner, Stephen P; Hairston, Nelson G; Jones, Laura E; Yoshida, Takehito

    2006-07-11

    Using rotifer-algal microcosms, we tracked rapid evolution resulting from temporally changing natural selection in ecological predator-prey dynamics. We previously demonstrated that predator-prey oscillations in rotifer-algal laboratory microcosms are qualitatively altered by the presence of genetic variation within the prey. In that study, changes in algal gene frequencies were inferred from their effects on population dynamics but not observed directly. Here, we document rapid prey evolution in this system by directly observing changes in Chlorella vulgaris genotype frequencies as the abundances of these algae and their consumer, Brachionus calyciflorus, change through time. We isolated a group of algal clones that we could distinguish by using microsatellite-DNA markers, and developed an allele-specific quantitative PCR technique (AsQ-PCR) to quantify the frequencies of pairs of clones in mixed culture. We showed that two of these genotypes exhibited a fitness tradeoff in which one was more resistant to predation (more digestion-resistant), and the other had faster population growth under limiting nitrogen concentrations. A fully specified mathematical model for the rotifer-algal population and evolutionary dynamics predicted that these two clones would undergo a single oscillation in clonal frequencies followed by asymptotic fixation of the more resistant clone, rather than the recurrent oscillations previously observed with other algal clones. We used AsQ-PCR to confirm this prediction: the superior competitor dominated initially, but as rotifer densities increased, the more predator-resistant clone predominated.

  10. Dynamics of Populations of Planetary Systems (IAU C197)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knezevic, Zoran; Milani, Andrea

    2005-05-01

    population of asteroids in the 2:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter revised Miroslav Broz, D. Vokrouhlicky, F. Roig, D. Nesvorny, W. F. Bottke and A. Morbidelli; 22. On the reliability of computation of maximum Lyapunov Characteristic Exponents for asteroids Zoran Knezevic and Slobodan Ninkovic; 23. Nekhoroshev stability estimates for different models of the Trojan asteroids Christos Efthymiopoulos; 24. The role of the resonant 'stickiness' in the dynamical evolution of Jupiter family comets A. Alvarez-Canda and F. Roig; 25. Regimes of stability and scaling relations for the removal time in the asteroid belt: a simple kinetic model and numerical tests Mihailo Cubrovic; 26. Virtual asteroids and virtual impactors Andrea Milani; 27. Asteroid population models Alessandro Morbidelli; 28. Linking Very Large Telescope asteroid observations M. Granvik, K. Muinonen, J. Virtanen, M. Delbó, L. Saba, G. De Sanctis, R. Morbidelli, A. Cellino and E. Tedesco; 29. Collision orbits and phase transition for 2004 AS1 at discovery Jenni Virtanen, K. Muinonen, M. Granvik and T. Laakso; 30. The size of collision solutions in orbital elements space G. B. Valsecchi, A. Rossi, A. Milani and S. R. Chesley; 31. Very short arc orbit determination: the case of asteroid 2004 FU162 Steven R. Chesley; 32. Nonlinear impact monitoring: 2-dimensional sampling Giacomo Tommei; 33. Searching for gravity assisted trajectories to accessible near-Earth asteroids Stefan Berinde; 34. KLENOT - Near Earth and other unusual objects observations Michal Kocer, Jana Tichá and M. Tichy; 35. Transport of comets to the Inner Solar System Hans Rickman; 36. Nongravitational Accelerations on Comets Steven R. Chesley and Donald K. Yeomans; 37. Interaction of planetesimals with the giant planets and the shaping of the trans-Neptunian belt Harold F. Levison and Alessandro Morbidelli; 38. Transport of comets to the outer p

  11. Algal taxonomy forum: Algal Taxonomist, Let Serendipity Reign!

    PubMed

    Druehl, Louis

    2013-04-01

    The publication of a mini-review by Olivier De Clerck et al. in this issue of the Journal of Phycology presented an opportunity to open a dialogue on challenges faced by contemporary algal taxonomists. The Editorial Office solicited the following two additional contributions in response to De Clerck et al.'s paper; the responses were edited solely for clarity, space and format. © 2013 Phycological Society of America.

  12. Mean occupancy time: linking mechanistic movement models, population dynamics and landscape ecology to population persistence.

    PubMed

    Cobbold, Christina A; Lutscher, Frithjof

    2014-02-01

    Reaction-diffusion models for the dynamics of a biological population in a fragmented landscape can incorporate detailed descriptions of movement and behavior, but are difficult to analyze and hard to parameterize. Patch models, on the other hand, are fairly easy to analyze and can be parameterized reasonably well, but miss many details of the movement process within and between patches. We develop a framework to scale up from a reaction-diffusion process to a patch model and, in particular, to determine movement rates between patches based on behavioral rules for individuals. Our approach is based on the mean occupancy time, the mean time that an individuals spends in a certain area of the landscape before it exits that area or dies. We illustrate our approach using several different landscape configurations. We demonstrate that the resulting patch model most closely captures persistence conditions and steady state densities as compared with the reaction-diffusion model.

  13. Population Dynamics of Borrelia burgdorferi in Lyme Disease

    PubMed Central

    Binder, Sebastian C.; Telschow, Arndt; Meyer-Hermann, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Many chronic inflammatory diseases are known to be caused by persistent bacterial or viral infections. A well-studied example is the tick-borne infection by the gram-negative spirochaetes of the genus Borrelia in humans and other mammals, causing severe symptoms of chronic inflammation and subsequent tissue damage (Lyme Disease), particularly in large joints and the central nervous system, but also in the heart and other tissues of untreated patients. Although killed efficiently by human phagocytic cells in vitro, Borrelia exhibits a remarkably high infectivity in mice and men. In experimentally infected mice, the first immune response almost clears the infection. However, approximately 1 week post infection, the bacterial population recovers and reaches an even larger size before entering the chronic phase. We developed a mathematical model describing the bacterial growth and the immune response against Borrelia burgdorferi in the C3H mouse strain that has been established as an experimental model for Lyme disease. The peculiar dynamics of the infection exclude two possible mechanistic explanations for the regrowth of the almost cleared bacteria. Neither the hypothesis of bacterial dissemination to different tissues nor a limitation of phagocytic capacity were compatible with experiment. The mathematical model predicts that Borrelia recovers from the strong initial immune response by the regrowth of an immune-resistant sub-population of the bacteria. The chronic phase appears as an equilibration of bacterial growth and adaptive immunity. This result has major implications for the development of the chronic phase of Borrelia infections as well as on potential protective clinical interventions. PMID:22470370

  14. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF AMBIENT AND ALTERED EARTHWORM COMMUNITIES IN ROW-CROP AGROECOSYSTEMS IN OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although earthworms are known to influence agroecosystem processes, there are relatively few long-term studies addressing population dynamics under cropping systems in which earthworm populations were intentionally altered. We assessed earthworm communities from fall 1994 to spr...

  15. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF AMBIENT AND ALTERED EARTHWORM COMMUNITIES IN ROW-CROP AGROECOSYSTEMS IN OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although earthworms are known to influence agroecosystem processes, there are relatively few long-term studies addressing population dynamics under cropping systems in which earthworm populations were intentionally altered. We assessed earthworm communities from fall 1994 to spr...

  16. An Application of Lagrangian Coherent Structures to Harmful Algal Blooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olascoaga, M. J.; Beron-Vera, F. J.; Brand, L. E.; Kocak, H.

    2009-04-01

    Karenia brevis is present in low concentrations in vast areas of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). This toxic dinoflagellate sporadically develops blooms anywhere in the GoM, except in the southern portion of West Florida Shelf (WFS). There, these harmful algal blooms (HABs) are recurrent events whose frequency and intensity are increasing. HABs on the WFS are usually only evident once they have achieved high concentrations that can be detected by observation of discolored water, which may be apparent in satellite imagery; by ecological problems such as fish kills; or human health problems. Because the early development stages of HABs are usually not detected, there is limited understanding of the environmental conditions that lead to their development. Analysis of simulated surface ocean currents reveals the presence of a persistent large-scale Lagrangian coherent structure (LCS) on the southern portion of the WFS. A LCS can be regarded as a distinguished material line which divides immiscible fluid regions with distinct advection properties. Consistent with satellite-tracked drifter trajectories, this LCS on the WFS constitutes a cross-shelf barrier for the lateral transport of passive tracers. We hypothesize that such a LCS provides favorable conditions for the development of HABs. LCSs are also employed to trace the early location of an observed HAB on the WFS. Using a simplified population dynamics model we infer the factors that could possibly lead to the development of this HAB. The population dynamics model determines nitrogen in two components, nutrients and phytoplankton, which are assumed to be passively advected by simulated surface ocean currents. Two nutrient sources are inferred for the HAB whose evolution is found to be strongly tied to the simulated LCSs. These nutrient sources are found to be located near shore and likely due to land runoff.

  17. Comparative Population Dynamics of Two Closely Related Species Differing in Ploidy Level

    PubMed Central

    Černá, Lucie; Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2013-01-01

    Background Many studies compare the population dynamics of single species within multiple habitat types, while much less is known about the differences in population dynamics in closely related species in the same habitat. Additionally, comparisons of the effect of habitat types and species are largely missing. Methodology and Principal Findings We estimated the importance of the habitat type and species for population dynamics of plants. Specifically, we compared the dynamics of two closely related species, the allotetraploid species Anthericum liliago and the diploid species Anthericum ramosum, occurring in the same habitat type. We also compared the dynamics of A. ramosum in two contrasting habitats. We examined three populations per species and habitat type. The results showed that single life history traits as well as the mean population dynamics of A. liliago and A. ramosum from the same habitat type were more similar than the population dynamics of A. ramosum from the two contrasting habitats. Conclusions Our findings suggest that when transferring knowledge regarding population dynamics between populations, we need to take habitat conditions into account, as these conditions appear to be more important than the species involved (ploidy level). However, the two species differ significantly in their overall population growth rates, indicating that the ploidy level has an effect on species performance. In contrast to what has been suggested by previous studies, we observed a higher population growth rate in the diploid species. This is in agreement with the wider range of habitats occupied by the diploid species. PMID:24116057

  18. Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may

  19. Algal blooms and public health

    SciTech Connect

    Epstein, P.R. . Harvard Medical School)

    1993-06-01

    Alterations in coastal ecology are expanding the geographic extent, frequency, magnitude, and species complexity'' of algal blooms throughout the world, increasing the threat of fish and shellfish poisonings, anoxia in marine nurseries, and of cholera. The World Health Organization and members of the medical profession have described the potential health effects of global climate change. They warn of the consequences of increased ultraviolet-B (UV-B) rays and of warming: the possible damage to agriculture and nutrition, and the impact on habitats which may alter the distribution of vector-borne and water-based infectious diseases. Algal growth due to increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) and warming are already affecting marine microflora and aquatic plants; and there is now clear evidence that marine organisms are a reservoir for enteric pathogens. The pattern of cholera in the Western Hemisphere suggests that environmental changes have already begun to influence the epidemiology of this infectious disease. 106 refs.

  20. Algal biofuels: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Leite, Gustavo B; Abdelaziz, Ahmed E M; Hallenbeck, Patrick C

    2013-10-01

    Biodiesel production using microalgae is attractive in a number of respects. Here a number of pros and cons to using microalgae for biofuels production are reviewed. Algal cultivation can be carried out using non-arable land and non-potable water with simple nutrient supply. In addition, algal biomass productivities are much higher than those of vascular plants and the extractable content of lipids that can be usefully converted to biodiesel, triacylglycerols (TAGs) can be much higher than that of the oil seeds now used for first generation biodiesel. On the other hand, practical, cost-effective production of biofuels from microalgae requires that a number of obstacles be overcome. These include the development of low-cost, effective growth systems, efficient and energy saving harvesting techniques, and methods for oil extraction and conversion that are environmentally benign and cost-effective. Promising recent advances in these areas are highlighted.

  1. Intertidal population genetic dynamics at a microgeographic seascape scale.

    PubMed

    Hu, Zi-Min

    2013-06-01

    The intertidal community is among the most physically harsh niches on earth, with highly heterogeneous environmental and biological factors that impose strong habitat selection on population abundance, genetic connectivity and ecological adaptation of organisms in nature. However, most genetic studies to date have concentrated on the influence of basin-wide or regional marine environments (e.g. habitat discontinuities, oceanic currents and fronts, and geographic barriers) on spatiotemporal distribution and composition of intertidal invertebrates having planktonic stages or long-distance dispersal capability. Little is known about sessile marine organisms (e.g. seaweeds) in the context of topographic tidal gradients and reproductive traits at the microgeographic scale. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Krueger-Hadfield et al. () implemented an elaborate sampling strategy with red seaweed (Chondrus crispus) from a 90-m transect stand near Roscoff and comprehensively detected genome-scale genetic differentiation and biases in ploidy level. This study not only revealed that tidal height resulted in genetic differentiation between high- and low-shore stands and restricted the genetic exchange within the high-shore habitat, but also demonstrated that intergametophytic nonrandom fertilization in C. crispus can cause significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Such new genetic insights highlight the importance of microgeographic genetic dynamics and life history characteristics for better understanding the evolutionary processes of speciation and diversification of intertidal marine organisms.

  2. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  3. Fragmentation and groundwater supply as major drivers of algal and plant diversity and relative cover dynamics along a highly modified lowland river.

    PubMed

    Bolpagni, Rossano; Racchetti, Erica; Laini, Alex

    2016-10-15

    Algae and aquatic vascular plants were investigated along a highly modified medium-sized lowland river (Oglio River, northern Italy). We focused on the role of fragmentation and groundwater supply in driving macrophyte assemblages, paying particular attention to soft-bodied benthic algae. Four different a priori stretch types (dammed, groundwater-dependent, potamal and rhithral) were identified along the river longitudinal gradient as proxies of river hydrology and relative human-induced flow alterations. Over three years (2009-2011), taxa diversity, cover data, spatial and temporal dynamics and indicator and detector species were compared with physical, chemical and hydrological variables at 30 different river sites. Data was explored by indicator species analysis, nonmetric multidimensional scaling, and PROTEST. A total of 88 taxa, of which 36 were algae (equal to 40.9% of the total diversity), 3 bryophytes (3.4%) and 49 vascular plants (55.7%), were recorded. Taxa diversity peaked at the groundwater-dependent sites for both algae and vascular plants (with a mean of 12.8±2.7 and 12.7±4.8 taxa per site, respectively). Algae cover values were one order of magnitude higher than those of vascular plants (with an overall mean of 37.0±24.2% per site). The vascular plants counterbalanced the algae coverage values exclusively at the dammed sites (27.6±23.2% vs 28.2±13.9%, respectively). A clear zonation of communities emerged from the multivariate analysis, which revealed taxa rearrangements that largely overlapped the river stretch types. Inter-annual comparisons confirmed the strong stability of the primary producer communities in the short term (three years). Our work substantiates the pivotal role played by fragmentation and hydrology, in addition to groundwater, in structuring riverine macrophyte communities. Further investigations are needed to resolve the uncertainty surrounding the non-linear responses of macrophytes to the physical and chemical conditions

  4. Mechanical algal disruption for efficient biodiesel extraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krehbiel, Joel David

    Biodiesel from algae provides several benefits over current biodiesel feedstocks, but the energy requirements of processing algae into a useable fuel are currently so high as to be prohibitive. One route to improving this is via disruption of the cells prior to lipid extraction, which can significantly increase energy recovery. Unfortunately, several obvious disruption techniques require more energy than can be gained. This dissertation examines the use of microbubbles to improve mechanical disruption of algal cells using experimental, theoretical, and computational methods. New laboratory experiments show that effective ultrasonic disruption of algae is achieved by adding microbubbles to an algal solution. The configuration studied flows the solution through a tube and insonifies a small section with a high-pressure ultrasound wave. Previous biomedical research has shown effective cell membrane damage on animal cells with similar methods, but the present research is the first to extend such study to algal cells. Results indicate that disruption increases with peak negative pressure between 1.90 and 3.07 MPa and with microbubble concentration up to 12.5 x 107 bubbles/ml. Energy estimates of this process suggest that it requires only one-fourth the currently most-efficient laboratory-scale disruption process. Estimates of the radius near each bubble that causes disruption (i.e. the disruption radius) suggest that it increases with peak negative pressure and is near 9--20 microm for all cases tested. It is anticipated that these procedures can be designed for better efficiency and efficacy, which will be facilitated by identifying the root mechanisms of the bubble-induced disruption. We therefore examine whether bubble expansion alone creates sufficient cell deformation for cell rupture. The spherically-symmetric Marmottant model for bubble dynamics allows estimation of the flow regime under experimental conditions. Bubble expansion is modeled as a point source of

  5. Dynamical population synthesis: constructing the stellar single and binary contents of galactic field populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marks, Michael; Kroupa, Pavel

    2011-11-01

    The galactic field's late-type stellar single and binary populations are calculated on the observationally well-constrained supposition that all stars form as binaries with invariant properties in discrete star formation events. A recently developed tool (Marks, Kroupa & Oh) is used to evolve the binary star distributions in star clusters for a few million years until an equilibrium situation is achieved which has a particular mixture of single and binary stars. On cluster dissolution the population enters the galactic field with these characteristics. The different contributions of single stars and binaries from individual star clusters, which are selected from a power-law-embedded star cluster mass function, are then added up. This gives rise to integrated galactic field binary distribution functions (IGBDFs), resembling a galactic field's stellar content (dynamical population synthesis). It is found that the binary proportion in the galactic field of a galaxy is larger the lower the minimum cluster mass, Mecl, min, the lower the star formation rate, SFR, the steeper the embedded star cluster mass function (described by index β) and the larger the typical size of forming star clusters in the considered galaxy. In particular, period, mass ratio and eccentricity IGBDFs for the Milky Way (MW) are modelled using Mecl, min= 5 M⊙, SFR = 3 M⊙ yr-1 and β= 2 which are justified by observations. For rh≈ 0.1-0.3 pc, the half-mass radius of an embedded cluster, the aforementioned theoretical IGBDFs agree with independently observed distributions, suggesting that the individual discrete star formation events in the MW generally formed compact star clusters. Of all late-type binaries, 50 per cent stem from Mecl≲ 300 M⊙ clusters, while 50 per cent of all single stars were born in Mecl≳ 104 M⊙ clusters. Comparison of the G-dwarf and M-dwarf binary populations indicates that the stars are formed in mass-segregated clusters. In particular, it is pointed out that

  6. [Population dynamics and control techniques of aphids on honeysuckle].

    PubMed

    Sun, Ying; Xue, Ming; Zhang, Xiao; Zhao, Hai-Peng; Li, Zhao-Xia

    2013-11-01

    The objective of this study is to define the population dynamics of Semiaphis heraclei in the main-producing district of Lonicera japonica in Shandong, and screen for highly efficient, safety control technique. Through fixed field investigation, we tested the toxicity of eight kinds of insecticides by using dipping methods, and carried out the field experiment. The results showed that the aphids' emergence peak appeared in May. The aphids on the Sijihua variety of L. japonica was more susceptible and the peak was also seven days earlier than Damao variety of L. japonica. The aphid populations on Sijihua were 1 fold than those on the Daomao in happened peak. Comparing the eight kinds of insecticides, the LC50 of lambda-cyhaothrin, abamectin, imidacloprid and pyrethrin to wingless aphids were 1.494, 1.690, 2.840, 2.861 mg x L(-1), respectively, whose toxicity were higher, the toxicity of matrine, pymetrozine and azadirachtin were also high. The field efficacy trials indicated that during the period of aphids occurred, 25% imidacloprid wettable powder, 1.8% abamectin missible oil, 2.5% lambda-cyhaothrin missible oil, 25% pymetrozine wettable powder, 5% pyrethrin missible oil, 1% matrine water aqua were sprayed at concentrations of 20,000, 2,000, 2,500, 5,000, 500 and 50 times, respectively,the control effect achieved 91.69%, 98.90%, 96.18%, 95.06%, 99.24%, 90.10%, respectively, after 5 days. During the growing period of L. japonica in spring, application of thiamethoxam, thiacloprid, pymetrozine and imidacloprid, all of the control effect against aphids achieved above 98.88% after 50 days. The result indicated that May was the S. heraclei Takahashi's emergence peak in Pingyi, Shandong. The efficient safety and environmentally friendly insecticides by spraying and systemic insecticide of pymetrozine and imidacloprid by root application were all efficient controlled aphids. These insecticides were long for controlling S. heraclei Takahashi and worthy of being widely

  7. Mosquito population dynamic (Diptera: Culicidae) in a eutrophised dam.

    PubMed

    Wermelinger, E D; Benigno, C V; Machado, R N M; Cabello, P H; Meira, A M; Ferreira, A P; Zanuncio, J C

    2012-11-01

    This study observed the mosquito population in a rural eutrophised dam. Larvae of L3 and L4 stages and pupae were dipped out during twelve month collections and the reared to the adult stage for identification. The collections were done along nine metres from the edge of the dam divided in three parts (P1, P2 and P3), each part being 3 m long. P1 did not have vegetation (grass) along its edge,which would reach or sink into the water to promote some shade on the marginal water. A total of 217 adults of four species was identified with the following constancies and frequencies: Culex quinquefasciatus (Say, 1823) (83% and 40.6%), Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) evansae (Brèthes, 1926) (92% and 26.7%), Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) rangeli (Gabaldon, Cova Garcia and Lopez, 1940) (83% and 14.3%) and Culex nigripalpus (Theobald, 1901) (33% and 18.4%). C. quinquefasciatus, A. evansae, A. rangeli and C. nigripalpus were more frequent in the quarters Nov./Dec./Jan. (85.7%), May/June/July (75%), Aug./Sept./Oct. (29.4%) and Aug./Sept./Oct. (23.5%) particularly in the months of December (88.4%) Sept.tember (48.94), (38.3) and August (47.62) respectively. The presence of C. quinquefasciatus and the high incidence of Daphinia sp. and also the levels of Organic Nitrogen (0.28 mg/L) and of total Phosphorus (0.02 mg/L) are indications of the eutrophication of the dam. There was a difference regarding the total of Anopheles (A. avansae + A. rangeli) and Culex species (C. quinquefasciatus + C. nigripalpis) between P1 and P2 (χ(2) = 0.0097), P1 and P3 (χ(2) = 0.0005), but not between P2 and P3 (χ(2) = 0.2045).The high C. quinquefasciatus constancy and frequency were confirmed to be a good biological indicator for a eutrophised environment and A. evansae showed a good potential for this environment. Vegetation can be an important factor for anopheline population dynamic also in eutrophic breeding sites.

  8. Biofilm-based algal cultivation systems.

    PubMed

    Gross, Martin; Jarboe, Darren; Wen, Zhiyou

    2015-07-01

    Biofilm-based algal cultivation has received increased attention as a potential platform for algal production and other applications such as wastewater treatment. Algal biofilm cultivation systems represent an alternative to the suspension-based systems that have yet to become economically viable. One major advantage of algal biofilm systems is that algae can be simply harvested through scraping and thus avoid the expensive harvesting procedures used in suspension-based harvesting such as flocculation and centrifugation. In recent years, an assortment of algal biofilm systems have been developed with various design configurations and biomass production capacities. This review summarizes the state of the art of different algal biofilm systems in terms of their design and operation. Perspectives for future research needs are also discussed to provide guidance for further development of these unique cultivation systems.

  9. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  10. Quantifying Salmonella population dynamics in water and biofilms.

    PubMed

    Sha, Qiong; Vattem, Dhiraj A; Forstner, Michael R J; Hahn, Dittmar

    2013-01-01

    Members of the bacterial genus Salmonella are recognized worldwide as major zoonotic pathogens often found to persist in non-enteric environments including heterogeneous aquatic biofilms. In this study, Salmonella isolates that had been detected repeatedly over time in aquatic biofilms at different sites in Spring Lake, San Marcos, Texas, were identified as serovars Give, Thompson, Newport and -:z10:z39. Pathogenicity results from feeding studies with the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans as host confirmed that these strains were pathogenic, with Salmonella-fed C. elegans dying faster (mean survival time between 3 and 4 days) than controls, i.e., Escherichia coli-fed C. elegans (mean survival time of 9.5 days). Cells of these isolates inoculated into water at a density of up to 10(6) ml(-1) water declined numerically by 3 orders of magnitude within 2 days, reaching the detection limit of our quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-based quantification technique (i.e., 10(3) cells ml(-1)). Similar patterns were obtained for cells in heterogeneous aquatic biofilms developed on tiles and originally free of Salmonella that were kept in the inoculated water. Cell numbers increased during the first days to more than 10(7) cells cm(-2), and then declined over time. Ten-fold higher cell numbers of Salmonella inoculated into water or into biofilm resulted in similar patterns of population dynamics, though cells in biofilms remained detectable with numbers around 10(4) cells cm(-2) after 4 weeks. Independent of detectability by qPCR, samples of all treatments harbored viable salmonellae that resembled the inoculated isolates after 4 weeks of incubation. These results demonstrate that pathogenic salmonellae were isolated from heterogeneous aquatic biofilms and that they could persist and stay viable in such biofilms in high numbers for some time.

  11. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  12. Stimulation of bacterial DNA synthesis by algal exudates in attached algal-bacterial consortia. [Amphora coffeaeformis; Vibrio proteolyticus

    SciTech Connect

    Murray, R.E.; Cooksey, K.E.; Priscu, J.C.

    1986-11-01

    Algal-bacterial consortia attached to polystyrene surfaces were prepared in the laboratory by using the marine diatom Amphora coffeaeformis and the marine bacterium Vibrio proteolytica (the approved name of this bacterium is Vibrio proteolyticus. The organisms were attached to the surfaces at cell densities of approximately 5 x 10/sup 4/ cells cm/sup -2/ (diatoms) and 5 x 10/sup 6/ cells cm/sup -2/ (bacteria). The algal-bacterial consortia consistently exhibited higher rates of (/sup 3/H)thymidine incorporation than did biofilms composed solely of bacteria. The rates of (/sup 3/H)thymidine incorporation by the algal-bacterial consortia were fourfold greater than the rates of incorporation by monobacterial biofilms 16 h after biofilm formation and were 16-fold greater 70 h after biofilm formation. Extracellular material released from the attached Amphora cells supported rates of bacterial activity (0.8 x 10/sup -21/ mol to 17.9 x 10/sup -21/ mol of (/sup 3/H)thymidine incorporated cell /sup -1/ h/sup -1/) and growth (doubling time, 29.5 to 1.4 days) comparable to values reported for a wide variety of marine and freshwater ecosystems. In the presence of sessile diatom populations, DNA synthesis by attached V. proteolytica cells was light dependent and increased with increasing algal abundance. The metabolic activity of diatoms thus appears to be the rate-limiting process in biofilm development on illuminated surfaces under conditions of low bulk-water dissolved organic carbon.

  13. DNA Analysis of Algal Endosymbionts of Ciliates Reveals the State of Algal Integration and the Surprising Specificity of the Symbiosis.

    PubMed

    Hoshina, Ryo; Kusuoka, Yasushi

    2016-04-01

    Many freshwater protists harbor unicellular green algae within their cells, but little is known of their degree of integration and specificity. Using algae-targeted PCR of whole ciliate cells collected at irregular intervals over 15 months from Lake Biwa, Japan, we explored the SSU-ITS rDNA of the endosymbiotic algae and its changes over time, obtaining sequences of algal rDNA fragments from four ciliate species. A high proportion of clonal algae was evident within the ciliate cells. The differences observed in those sequences from the SSU through to the ITS region were less than 1%. The name 'Chlorb' is proposed for these algae, with the implication that they represent a single 'species.' The sequences of the algal DNA fragments were identical for any given host species throughout the collection period, thus we conclude that these four ciliates stably retain their algae over long term. In contrast, algal DNA fragments obtained from Didinium sp. were variable within each sample, which indicates that this ciliate only temporarily holds its algal cells. The ITS1 sequences of Chlorb populations are close (at intraspecific level) to those of algae isolated from ciliates in Austria, which raises the possibility that Chlorb algae are universally shared as symbionts among various ciliates. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  14. Air pollutant production by algal cell cultures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fong, F.; Funkhouser, E. A.

    1982-01-01

    The production of phytotoxic air pollutants by cultures of Chlorella vulgaris and Euglena gracilis is considered. Algal and plant culture systems, a fumigation system, and ethylene, ethane, cyanide, and nitrogen oxides assays are discussed. Bean, tobacco, mustard green, cantaloupe and wheat plants all showed injury when fumigated with algal gases for 4 hours. Only coleus plants showed any resistance to the gases. It is found that a closed or recycled air effluent system does not produce plant injury from algal air pollutants.

  15. DYNAMICS OF NEMATODE POPULATIONS IN CACAO GROWN UNDER TRADIONALLY SYSTEM OF MANAGEMENT IN PERUVIAN AMAZON

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Nature of crops and management systems greatly influences population dynamics of parasitic and nonparasitic nematodes in soil. An experiment was undertaken at Tropical Crop Research institute (ICT), Tarapoto, Peru to assess the population dynamics of nematodes in a Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.)-Banana ...

  16. From home range dynamics to population cycles: validation and realism of a common vole population model for pesticide risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wang, Magnus

    2013-04-01

    Despite various attempts to establish population models as standard tools in pesticide risk assessment, population models still receive limited acceptance by risk assessors and authorities in Europe. A main criticism of risk assessors is that population models are often not, or not sufficiently, validated. Hence the realism of population-level risk assessments conducted with such models remains uncertain. We therefore developed an individual-based population model for the common vole, Microtus arvalis, and demonstrate how population models can be validated in great detail based on published data. The model is developed for application in pesticide risk assessment, therefore, the validation covers all areas of the biology of the common vole that are relevant for the analysis of potential effects and recovery after application of pesticides. Our results indicate that reproduction, survival, age structure, spatial behavior, and population dynamics reproduced from the model are comparable to field observations. Also interannual population cycles, which are frequently observed in field studies of small mammals, emerge from the population model. These cycles were shown to be caused by the home range behavior and dispersal. As observed previously in the field, population cycles in the model were also stronger for longer breeding season length. Our results show how validation can help to evaluate the realism of population models, and we discuss the importance of taking field methodology and resulting bias into account. Our results also demonstrate how population models can help to test or understand biological mechanisms in population ecology.

  17. Spatial variation in the effects of grazing on epilithic algal turfs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaldo, R. M.; Bellwood, D. R.

    2011-06-01

    Of all benthic components on tropical reefs, algal turfs are the most widespread and the main source of primary productivity. We compared the importance of grazing by herbivores on algal turfs on two zones with marked differences in terms of benthic composition, herbivore biomass and grazing pressure, the inner flat and crest, of an inshore reef on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. A combination of herbivore exclusion cages and transplants of coral rubble covered by algal turfs between reef zones was used to examine changes in algal turfs over a 4-day experimental period. In situ crest turfs had lower algal height, sediment loads and particulate content than reef flat turfs. Caged samples on the crest exhibited an increase in all three variables. In contrast, in situ and caged treatments on the flat presented algal turfs with similar values for the three analysed variables, with high algal height and heavy particulate and sediment loads. In the absence of cages, reef flat turfs transplanted to the crest had decreased algal height, total particulate material and particulate inorganic content, while the opposite was found in crest turf samples transplanted to the flat. Our results highlight the dynamic nature of algal turfs and the clear differences in the relative importance of herbivory in shaping turf length and sediment load between the reef crest and inner flat.

  18. Methods for removing contaminants from algal oil

    SciTech Connect

    Lupton, Francis Stephen

    2016-09-27

    Methods for removing contaminants from algal oil are provided. In an embodiment, a method comprises the steps of combining a sulfuric acid-aqueous solution that has a pH of about 1 or less with a contaminant-containing algal oil at treatment conditions effective to form an effluent. The effluent comprises a treated algal oil phase and contaminants in an acidic aqueous phase. The contaminants comprise metals, phosphorus, or combinations thereof. The acidic aqueous phase is removed from the effluent to form a contaminant-depleted algal oil.

  19. HIV AND POPULATION DYNAMICS: A GENERAL MODEL AND MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD STANDARDS FOR EAST AFRICA*

    PubMed Central

    HEUVELINE, PATRICK

    2014-01-01

    In high-prevalence populations, the HIV epidemic undermines the validity of past empirical models and related demographic techniques. A parsimonious model of HIV and population dynamics is presented here and fit to 46,000 observations, gathered from 11 East African populations. The fitted model simulates HIV and population dynamics with standard demographic inputs and only two additional parameters for the onset and scale of the epidemic. The underestimation of the general prevalence of HIV in samples of pregnant women and the fertility impact of HIV are examples of the dynamic interactions that demographic models must reproduce and are shown here to increase over time even with constant prevalence levels. As a result, the impact of HIV on population growth appears to have been underestimated by current population projections that ignore this dynamic. PMID:12846130

  20. Dynamics of a combined Medea-underdominant population transformation system.

    PubMed

    Gokhale, Chaitanya S; Reeves, Richard Guy; Reed, Floyd A

    2014-05-07

    Transgenic constructs intended to be stably established at high frequencies in wild populations have been demonstrated to "drive" from low frequencies in experimental insect populations. Linking such population transformation constructs to genes which render them unable to transmit pathogens could eventually be used to stop the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue. Generally, population transformation constructs with only a single transgenic drive mechanism have been envisioned. Using a theoretical modelling approach we describe the predicted properties of a construct combining autosomal Medea and underdominant population transformation systems. We show that when combined they can exhibit synergistic properties which in broad circumstances surpass those of the single systems. With combined systems, intentional population transformation and its reversal can be achieved readily. Combined constructs also enhance the capacity to geographically restrict transgenic constructs to targeted populations. It is anticipated that these properties are likely to be of particular value in attracting regulatory approval and public acceptance of this novel technology.

  1. Model complexity affects transient population dynamics following a dispersal event: a case study with pea aphids.

    PubMed

    Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Tyre, Andrew J; Rebarber, Richard

    2009-07-01

    Stage-structured population models predict transient population dynamics if the population deviates from the stable stage distribution. Ecologists' interest in transient dynamics is growing because populations regularly deviate from the stable stage distribution, which can lead to transient dynamics that differ significantly from the stable stage dynamics. Because the structure of a population matrix (i.e., the number of life-history stages) can influence the predicted scale of the deviation, we explored the effect of matrix size on predicted transient dynamics and the resulting amplification of population size. First, we experimentally measured the transition rates between the different life-history stages and the adult fecundity and survival of the aphid, Acythosiphon pisum. Second, we used these data to parameterize models with different numbers of stages. Third, we compared model predictions with empirically measured transient population growth following the introduction of a single adult aphid. We find that the models with the largest number of life-history stages predicted the largest transient population growth rates, but in all models there was a considerable discrepancy between predicted and empirically measured transient peaks and a dramatic underestimation of final population sizes. For instance, the mean population size after 20 days was 2394 aphids compared to the highest predicted population size of 531 aphids; the predicted asymptotic growth rate (lamdamax) was consistent with the experiments. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are discussed.

  2. Image-based monitoring system for green algal Haematococcus pluvialis (Chlorophyceae) cells during culture.

    PubMed

    Ohnuki, Shinsuke; Nogami, Satoru; Ota, Shuhei; Watanabe, Koichi; Kawano, Shigeyuki; Ohya, Yoshikazu

    2013-11-01

    The green microalga Haematococcus pluvialis accumulates the red pigment astaxanthin accompanied by morphological changes under stress conditions, including nutrient depletion, continuous light and high temperature. To investigate the physiological state of the algal cells, we developed the digital image-processing software called HaematoCalMorph. The software automatically outputs 25 single-cell measurements of cell morphology and pigments based on color, bright-field microscopic images. Compared with manual inspection, the output values of cell shape were reliable and reproducible. The estimated pigment content fits the values calculated by conventional methods. Using a random forests classifier, we were able to distinguish flagellated cells from immotile cells and detect their transient appearance in culture. By performing principal components analysis, we also successfully monitored time-dependent morphological and colorimetric changes in culture. Thus, combined with multivariate statistical techniques, the software proves useful for studying cellular responses to various conditions as well as for monitoring population dynamics in culture.

  3. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  4. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  5. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Rose, Amy N; Liu, Cheng; Urban, Marie L; Stewart, Robert N

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  6. Simulating pH effects in an algal-growth hydrodynamics model(1).

    PubMed

    James, Scott C; Janardhanam, Vijayasarathi; Hanson, David T

    2013-06-01

    Models and numerical simulations are relatively inexpensive tools that can be used to enhance economic competitiveness through operation and system optimization to minimize energy and resource consumption, while maximizing algal oil yield. This work uses modified versions of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) in conjunction with the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers' water-quality code (CE-QUAL) to simulate flow hydrodynamics coupled to algal growth kinetics. The model allows the flexibility of manipulating a host of variables associated with algal growth such as temperature, light intensity, and nutrient availability. pH of the medium is a newly added operational parameter governing algal growth that affects algal photosynthesis, differential availability of inorganic forms of carbon, enzyme activity in algae cell walls, and oil production rates. A single-layer algal-growth/hydrodynamic model without pH limitation was verified by comparing solution curves of algal biomass and phosphorus concentrations to an analytical solution. Media pH, now included in the model as a growth-limiting factor, can be entered as a measured value or calculated based on CO2 concentrations. Upon adding the ability to limit growth due to pH, physically reasonable results have been obtained from the model both with and without pH limitation. When the model was used to simulate algal growth from a pond experiment in the greenhouse, a least-squares fitting technique yielded a maximum algal production (subsequently modulated by limitation factors) of 1.05 d(-1) . Overall, the measured and simulated biomass concentrations in the greenhouse pond were in close agreement. © 2013 Phycological Society of America.

  7. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

    PubMed

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

  8. Dynamics of Population and Economic Growth: A Computer-Based Instruction Program.