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Sample records for algal population dynamics

  1. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

    2016-09-01

    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. PMID:26625979

  2. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

    2016-09-01

    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts.

  3. [Effects of water temperature and edible algal density on the population dynamics and sexual reproduction of Moina irrasa].

    PubMed

    Li, Yu-Ying; Deng, Dao-Gui; Lei, Juan; Xi, Yi-Long

    2011-12-01

    This paper studied the population dynamics and sexual reproduction of Moina irrasa at different water temperature and edible algal density. The population density of M. irrasa was obviously higher at high than at medium and low densities of edible algae, with the maximum at high edible algal density and 20 degrees C. At the same temperatures, the average number of the offsprings first produced by per female M. irrasa declined with decreasing edible algal density, and the maximum value appeared at 25 degrees C and at high edible algal density. The male offsprings produced were obviously higher at high than at medium and low edible algal densities. There was a significant correlation between the male density and the population density of M. irrasa. The number of ephippia produced by M. irrasa declined with decreasing edible algal density, and was higher at 25 degrees C than at other temperatures. Edible algal density had larger effects on the population dynamics and sexual reproduction of M. irrasa, as compared with temperature. PMID:22384606

  4. Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

    PubMed

    Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

    2008-11-07

    Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

  5. Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

    PubMed Central

    Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

    2008-01-01

    Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges. PMID:19025676

  6. Population dynamics of an algal bacterial cenosis in closed ecological system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pisman, T. I.; Galayda, Ya. V.; Loginova, N. S.

    The paper deals with microalgae-bacteria interrelationships in the "autotroph-heterotroph" aquatic biotic cycle. Explanations of why and how algal-bacterial ecosystems are formed still remain controversial. The paper presents results of experimental and theoretical investigations of the functioning of the algal-bacterial cenosis (the microalga Chlorella vulgaris and concomitant microflora). The Chlorella microbial community is dominated by representatives of the genus Pseudomonas. Experiments with non-sterile batch cultures of Chlorella on Tamiya medium showed that the biomass of microorganisms increases simultaneously with the increase in microalgal biomass. The microflora of Chlorella can grow on organic substances released by photosynthesizing Chlorella. Microorganisms can also use dying Chlorella cells, i.e. form a "producer-reducer" biocycle. To get a better insight into the cenosis-forming role of microalgae, a mathematical model of the "autotroph-heterotroph" aquatic biotic cycle has been constructed, taking into account the utilization of Chlorella photosynthates and dead cells by microorganisms and the contribution of the components to the nitrogen cycle. A theoretical study showed that the biomass of concomitant bacteria grown on glucose and detritus is larger than the biomass of bacteria utilizing only microalgal photosynthates, which agrees well with the experimental data.

  7. Population dynamics of an algal-bacterial cenosis in closed ecological system.

    PubMed

    Pisman, T I; Galayda, Ya V; Loginova, N S

    2005-01-01

    The paper deals with microalgae-bacteria interrelationships in the "autotroph-heterotroph" aquatic biotic cycle. Explanations of why and how algal-bacterial ecosystems are formed still remain controversial. The paper presents results of experimental and theoretical investigations of the functioning of the algal-bacterial cenosis (the microalga Chlorella vulgaris and concomitant microflora). The Chlorella microbial community is dominated by representatives of the genus Pseudomonas. Experiments with non-sterile batch cultures of Chlorella on Tamiya medium showed that the biomass of microorganisms increases simultaneously with the increase in microalgal biomass. The microflora of Chlorella can grow on organic substances released by photosynthesizing Chlorella. Microorganisms can also use dying Chlorella cells, i.e. form a "producer-reducer" biocycle. To get a better insight into the cenosis-forming role of microalgae, a mathematical model of the "autotroph-heterotroph" aquatic biotic cycle has been constructed, taking into account the utilization of Chlorella photosynthates and dead cells by microorganisms and the contribution of the components to the nitrogen cycle. A theoretical study showed that the biomass of concomitant bacteria grown on glucose and detritus is larger than the biomass of bacteria utilizing only microalgal photosynthates, which agrees well with the experimental data. PMID:16175685

  8. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF FUNGA, NEMATODE, BACTERIA AND ALGAL POPULATION IN A SOIL OF MAZON REGION OF PERU

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Soil microbes are mainly responsible for litter decomposition and nutrient cycling in the forest ecosystems. Population dynamics of soil microbes (fungus, bacteria, nematodes, algae) under secondary forest in tropical region is not well understood. An experiment was implemented at Tropical Crop Rese...

  9. Symbiont physiology and population dynamics before and during symbiont shifts in a flexible algal-cnidarian symbiosis.

    PubMed

    Dimond, James L; Bingham, Brian L; le Muller-Parker, Gisè; Oakley, Clinton A

    2013-12-01

    For cnidarians that can undergo shifts in algal symbiont relative abundance, the underlying algal physiological changes that accompany these shifts are not well known. The sea anemone Anthopleura elegantissima associates with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium muscatinei and the chlorophyte Elliptochloris marina, symbionts with very different tolerances to light and temperature. We compared the performance of these symbionts in anemones maintained in an 8-11.5 month outdoor common garden experiment with simulated intertidal conditions and three levels of shading (2, 43, and 85% ambient irradiance). Symbiont densities, mitotic indices, photophysiology and pigments were assessed at three time points during the summer, a period of high irradiance and solar heating during aerial exposure. Whereas S. muscatinei was either neutrally or positively affected by higher irradiance treatments, E. marina responded mostly negatively to high irradiance. E. marina in the 85% irradiance treatment exhibited significantly reduced Pmax and chlorophyll early in the summer, but it was not until nearly 3 months later that a shift in symbiont relative abundance toward S. muscatinei occurred, coincident with bleaching. Symbiont densities and proportions remained largely stable in all other treatments over time, and displacement of S. muscatinei by E. marina was not observed in the 2% irradiance treatment despite the potentially better performance of E. marina. While our results support the view that rapid changes in symbiont relative abundance are typically associated with symbiont physiological dysfunction and bleaching, they also show that significant temporal lags may occur between the onset of symbiont stress and shifts in symbiont relative abundances. PMID:27007628

  10. Pyrosequencing of plastid 23S rRNA genes reveals diverse and dynamic cyanobacterial and algal populations in two eutrophic lakes.

    PubMed

    Steven, Blaire; McCann, Sage; Ward, Naomi L

    2012-12-01

    Pyrosequencing of plastid 23S rRNA genes was performed to determine the usefulness of this methodology for describing spatial and temporal patterns of algal diversity in two eutrophic lakes. The majority of the sequences were identified as known cyanobacteria or eukaryotic algae (> 70% of sequence reads), indicating this approach can specifically recover algal sequences from complex communities. Furthermore, estimated coverage of the data sets indicated that the majority of the 23S rRNA genetic diversity was recovered in these surveys. Communities from algal mats could be clearly distinguished from algae in the water column, and the communities could be readily differentiated between the two lakes, suggesting that the plastid 23S rRNA sequencing was able to distinguish niche and biogeographic partitioning of algal communities. Within the sequence data sets, the ratio of cyanobacteria to eukaryotic algae fluctuated over the course of sampling, with cyanobacteria 23S rRNA sequences being more abundant in later samples. In addition, the eukaryotic algae communities showed large shifts in composition over the course of sampling. Taken together, these data demonstrate the usefulness of targeted plastid 23S rRNA sequencing for describing the structure and dynamics of complex algal communities.

  11. The use of turbidostat culture in investigation of algal heavy-metal toxicity and rotifer population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, W.N.

    1989-01-01

    Using the green alga Chlorella pyrenoidosa Chick, the heavy metals selenium as selenate, cadmium, cadmium + manganese and cadmium + zinc were investigated to assess their toxicity in terms of changes in {mu}{sub max}. It was shown that increases of sublethal concentrations of Se produced a near linear decrease in {mu}{sub max}. A {mu}{sub max}IC{sub 50} was calculated to be 10.1 {mu}M Se. A concentration of 1.8 {mu}M Cd produced a 62% decrease in {mu}{sub max} after 2 generating lag. A recovery of {mu}{sub max} was observed when MnCl{sub 2} or ZnCl{sub 2} was added to the medium in which populations were experiencing sublethal Cd toxicity. The amelioration responses were incomplete with regard to full recovery of {mu}{sub max} and last 20 generations for the Cd-Mn exposure and 7 generations for the Cd-Zn exposure. Measurement of {mu}{sub max} is turbidostat culture was shown to provide a very sensitive measure of toxicity. For the first time, a metazoan, the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus Pallas, was grown in turbidostat culture and maintained near its {mu}{sub max} for many generations. It was discovered that {mu}{sub max} was subject to selection in this species and increased 51% from 0.053 h{sup {minus}1} to 0.080 h{sup {minus}1} over 8 mo at 25{degree}C.

  12. Effects of four rice paddy herbicides on algal cell viability and the relationship with population recovery.

    PubMed

    Nagai, Takashi; Ishihara, Satoru; Yokoyama, Atsushi; Iwafune, Takashi

    2011-08-01

    Paddy herbicides are a high-risk concern for aquatic plants, including algae, because they easily flow out from paddy fields into rivers, with toxic effects. The effect on algal population dynamics, including population recovery after timed exposure, must be assessed. Therefore, we demonstrated concentration-response relationships of four paddy herbicides for algal growth inhibition and mortality, and the relationship between the effect on algal cell viability and population recovery following exposure. We used SYTOX Green dye assay and flow cytometry to assess cell viability of the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata. Live cells could be clearly distinguished from dead cells during herbicide exposure. Our results showed that pretilachlor and quinoclamine had both algicidal and algistatic effects, whereas bensulfuron-methyl only had an algistatic effect, and pentoxazone only had an algicidal effect. Then, a population recovery test following a 72-h exposure was conducted. The algal population recovered in all tests, but the periods required for recovery differed among exposure concentrations and herbicides. The periods required for recovery were inconsistent with the dead cell ratio at the beginning of the recovery test; that is, population recovery could not be described only by cell viability. Consequently, the temporal effect of herbicides and subsequent recovery of the algal population could be described not only by the toxicity characteristics but also by toxicokinetics, such as rate of uptake, transport to the target site, and elimination of the substance from algal cells. PMID:21590715

  13. Algal populations controlled by fish herbivory across a wave exposure gradient on southern temperate shores.

    PubMed

    Taylor, David I; Schiel, David R

    2010-01-01

    Consumers that forage across habitats can affect communities by altering the abundance and distribution of key species. In marine communities, studies of trophic interactions have generally focused on the effects of herbivorous and predatory invertebrates on benthic algae and mussel populations. However, large mobile consumers that move across habitats, such as fishes, can strongly affect community dynamics through consumption of habitat-dominating species, but their effects often vary over environmental gradients. On temperate rocky shores, herbivorous fishes are generally a small part of the fish fauna compared to the tropics, and there is sparse evidence that they play a major direct role in algal community dynamics, particularly of large brown algae that dominate many reefs. In New Zealand, however, a wide-ranging herbivorous fish, Odax pullus, feeds exclusively on macroalgae, including Durvillaea antarctica, a large low-intertidal fucoid reaching 10 m in length and 70 kg in mass. In four experiments we tested the extent of fish herbivory and how it was affected by algal canopy structure across a gradient of wave exposure at multiple sites. Exclusion experiments showed that fish impacts greatly reduced the cover and biomass of Durvillaea and that these effects decreased with increasing wave stress and algal canopy cover, effectively restricting the alga to exposed conditions. Almost all plants were entirely removed by fish where there was a sparse algal canopy in sheltered and semi-exposed sites, but there was significantly less grazing in exposed sites. Recruit Durvillaea beneath canopies were less affected by fish grazing, but they grew slowly. Successful natural recruitment, therefore, occurred almost exclusively on exposed shores outside canopies where many plants escaped severe grazing, and growth to maturity was far greater than elsewhere. Such large and direct impacts on the local and regional distribution of large brown algal populations by mobile

  14. Dynamics of ellipsoidal tracers in swimming algal suspensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Ou; Peng, Yi; Liu, Zhengyang; Tang, Chao; Xu, Xinliang; Cheng, Xiang

    2016-10-01

    Enhanced diffusion of passive tracers immersed in active fluids is a universal feature of active fluids and has been extensively studied in recent years. Similar to microrheology for equilibrium complex fluids, the unusual enhanced particle dynamics reveal intrinsic properties of active fluids. Nevertheless, previous studies have shown that the translational dynamics of spherical tracers are qualitatively similar, independent of whether active particles are pushers or pullers—the two fundamental classes of active fluids. Is it possible to distinguish pushers from pullers by simply imaging the dynamics of passive tracers? Here, we investigated the diffusion of isolated ellipsoids in algal C. reinhardtii suspensions—a model for puller-type active fluids. In combination with our previous results on pusher-type E. coli suspensions [Peng et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 068303 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.068303], we showed that the dynamics of asymmetric tracers show a profound difference in pushers and pullers due to their rotational degree of freedom. Although the laboratory-frame translation and rotation of ellipsoids are enhanced in both pushers and pullers, similar to spherical tracers, the anisotropic diffusion in the body frame of ellipsoids shows opposite trends in the two classes of active fluids. An ellipsoid diffuses fastest along its major axis when immersed in pullers, whereas it diffuses slowest along the major axis in pushers. This striking difference can be qualitatively explained using a simple hydrodynamic model. In addition, our study on algal suspensions reveals that the influence of the near-field advection of algal swimming flows on the translation and rotation of ellipsoids shows different ranges and strengths. Our work provides not only new insights into universal organizing principles of active fluids, but also a convenient tool for detecting the class of active particles.

  15. Flagellar Waveform Dynamics of Freely Swimming Algal Cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gollub, Jerry; Kurtuldu, Huseyin; Johnson, Karl

    2012-02-01

    We study the time-dependent conformation patterns of flagella driving freely swimming algal cells, and use this information to determine the time-dependent forces acting on the cells, the induced cell velocities, and the power injected into the surrounding fluid. Conformational waves are evident along the flagella, as are synchronization transitions. The observed dynamics relate directly to the behavior of the dynein molecular motors ``walking'' along the microtubules of the flagella. We find that the irreversibility giving rise to net propulsion is due to the hydrodynamic interactions between the flagella and cell body. We determine the time-dependent power injected into the fluid by the cell body and flagella, and show that the propulsion efficiency is only about 3%.

  16. Effect of Algal Inoculation on COD and Nitrogen Removal, and Indigenous Bacterial Dynamics in Municipal Wastewater.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jangho; Lee, Jaejin; Shukla, Sudheer Kumar; Park, Joonhong; Lee, Tae Kwon

    2016-05-28

    The effects of algal inoculation on chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total nitrogen (TN) removal, and indigenous bacterial dynamics were investigated in municipal wastewater. Experiments were conducted with municipal wastewater inoculated with either Chlorella vulgaris AG10032, Selenastrum gracile UTEX 325, or Scenedesmus quadricauda AG 10308. C. vulgaris and S. gracile as fast growing algae in municipal wastewater, performed high COD and TN removal in contrast to Sc. quadricauda. The indigenous bacterial dynamics revealed by 16S rRNA gene amplification showed different bacterial shifts in response to different algal inoculations. The dominant bacterial genera of either algal case were characterized as heterotrophic nitrifying bacteria. Our results suggest that selection of indigenous bacteria that symbiotically interact with algal species is important for better performance of wastewater treatment. PMID:26930350

  17. Effect of Algal Inoculation on COD and Nitrogen Removal, and Indigenous Bacterial Dynamics in Municipal Wastewater.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jangho; Lee, Jaejin; Shukla, Sudheer Kumar; Park, Joonhong; Lee, Tae Kwon

    2016-05-28

    The effects of algal inoculation on chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total nitrogen (TN) removal, and indigenous bacterial dynamics were investigated in municipal wastewater. Experiments were conducted with municipal wastewater inoculated with either Chlorella vulgaris AG10032, Selenastrum gracile UTEX 325, or Scenedesmus quadricauda AG 10308. C. vulgaris and S. gracile as fast growing algae in municipal wastewater, performed high COD and TN removal in contrast to Sc. quadricauda. The indigenous bacterial dynamics revealed by 16S rRNA gene amplification showed different bacterial shifts in response to different algal inoculations. The dominant bacterial genera of either algal case were characterized as heterotrophic nitrifying bacteria. Our results suggest that selection of indigenous bacteria that symbiotically interact with algal species is important for better performance of wastewater treatment.

  18. From benchtop to raceway : spectroscopic signatures of dynamic biological processes in algal communities.

    SciTech Connect

    Trahan, Christine Alexandra; Garcia, Omar Fidel; Martino, Anthony A.; Raymer, Michelle; Collins, Aaron M.; Hanson, David T.; Turner, Tom; Powell, Amy Jo; James, Scott Carlton; Timlin, Jerilyn Ann; Scholle, Steven; Dwyer, Brian P.; Ruffing, Anne; Jones, Howland D. T.; Ricken, James Bryce; Reichardt, Thomas A.

    2010-08-01

    The search is on for new renewable energy and algal-derived biofuel is a critical piece in the multi-faceted renewable energy puzzle. It has 30x more oil than any terrestrial oilseed crop, ideal composition for biodiesel, no competition with food crops, can be grown in waste water, and is cleaner than petroleum based fuels. This project discusses these three goals: (1) Conduct fundamental research into the effects that dynamic biotic and abiotic stressors have on algal growth and lipid production - Genomics/Transcriptomics, Bioanalytical spectroscopy/Chemical imaging; (2) Discover spectral signatures for algal health at the benchtop and greenhouse scale - Remote sensing, Bioanalytical spectroscopy; and (3) Develop computational model for algal growth and productivity at the raceway scale - Computational modeling.

  19. Microbial dynamics of an epilithic algal-bacterial mat community in an oligotrophic, high alpine stream

    SciTech Connect

    McFeters, G.A.; Haack, T.K.

    1982-04-01

    Previous studies of an epilithic algal-bacterial community in a pristine mountain stream suggested that heterotrophic bacteria were responding to the metabolic activities of the photorophic population. Subsequent studies were performed to follow the flow of labeled carbon, from its initial inorganic form, through the trophic levels of the mat community. A majority of primary production metabolites were excreted by the algal population during active growth; this shifted to an incorporation into cellular material as phototrophic activity declined. Results suggest that there was a direct flux of soluble algal products to the bacterial population, with little heterotrophic utilization of dissolved organics from the overlying stream water. Both phototrophic productivity and bacterial utilization of algal products peaked at approximately the same time of year. Activity of the diatom-dominated algal population declined as silica concentrations in the stream water dropped, leading to a situation in which the sessile bacteria were substrate limited. These events resulted in an almost complete disappearance of the community in early September.

  20. Characterisation of oxygen dynamics within a high-rate algal pond system used to treat abattoir wastewater.

    PubMed

    Evans, R A; Fallowfield, H J; Cromar, N J

    2003-01-01

    As part of a study examining the efficacy of high-rate algal pond treatment of high-strength abattoir wastewater, the oxygen dynamics of a pilot scale system were characterised. The relationship between photosynthesis and irradiance was investigated using online data collected throughout a year of operation under varying conditions of climate and wastewater quality. Changes in climate were reflected in changes in the net rate of photosynthesis in deep ponds, consistent with adaptation of algal populations to changing light intensity, whilst the response of shallow ponds was more varied. The use of online monitoring and the calculation in real time of photosynthetic rates should allow for improved design and management of full scale treatment systems and further the understanding of factors driving biological reactions within these systems. PMID:14510194

  1. Characterisation of oxygen dynamics within a high-rate algal pond system used to treat abattoir wastewater.

    PubMed

    Evans, R A; Fallowfield, H J; Cromar, N J

    2003-01-01

    As part of a study examining the efficacy of high-rate algal pond treatment of high-strength abattoir wastewater, the oxygen dynamics of a pilot scale system were characterised. The relationship between photosynthesis and irradiance was investigated using online data collected throughout a year of operation under varying conditions of climate and wastewater quality. Changes in climate were reflected in changes in the net rate of photosynthesis in deep ponds, consistent with adaptation of algal populations to changing light intensity, whilst the response of shallow ponds was more varied. The use of online monitoring and the calculation in real time of photosynthetic rates should allow for improved design and management of full scale treatment systems and further the understanding of factors driving biological reactions within these systems.

  2. Carbon conversion efficiency and population dynamics of a marine algae-bacteria consortium growing on simplified synthetic digestate: first step in a bioprocess coupling algal production and anaerobic digestion.

    PubMed

    Vasseur, Christophe; Bougaran, Gaël; Garnier, Matthieu; Hamelin, Jérôme; Leboulanger, Christophe; Le Chevanton, Myriam; Mostajir, Behzad; Sialve, Bruno; Steyer, Jean-Philippe; Fouilland, Eric

    2012-09-01

    Association of microalgae culture and anaerobic digestion seems a promising technology for sustainable algal biomass and biogas production. The use of digestates for sustaining the growth of microalgae reduces the costs and the environmental impacts associated with the substantial algal nutrient requirements. A natural marine algae-bacteria consortium was selected by growing on a medium containing macro nutrients (ammonia, phosphate and acetate) specific of a digestate, and was submitted to a factorial experimental design with different levels of temperature, light and pH. The microalgal consortium reached a maximum C conversion efficiency (i.e. ratio between carbon content produced and carbon supplied through light photosynthetic C conversion and acetate) of 3.6%. The presence of bacteria increased this maximum C conversion efficiency up to 6.3%. The associated bacterial community was considered beneficial to the total biomass production by recycling the carbon lost during photosynthesis and assimilating organic by-products from anaerobic digestion. PMID:22728186

  3. Assessment of Algal Farm Designs using a Dynamic Modular Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Abodeely, Jared M.; Stevens, Daniel M.; Ray, Allison E.; Newby, Deborah T.; Coleman, Andre M.; Cafferty, Kara G.

    2014-07-01

    The notion of renewable energy provides an importantmechanism for diversifying an energy portfolio,which ultimately would have numerous benefits including increased energy resilience, reduced reliance on foreign energysupplies, reduced GHG emissions, development of a green energy sector that contributes to economic growth,and providing a sustainable energy supply. The conversion of autotrophic algae to liquid transportation fuels is the basis of several decades of research to competitively bring energy-scale production into reality; however, many challenges still remain for making algal biofuels economically viable. Addressing current challenges associatedwith algal production systems, in part, requires the ability to assess spatial and temporal variability, rapidly evaluate alternative algal production system designs, and perform large-scale assessments considering multiple scenarios for thousands of potential sites. We introduce the development and application of the Algae Logistics Model (ALM) which is tailored to help address these challenges. The flexible nature of the ALM architecture allows the model to: 1) interface with external biomass production and resource assessment models, as well as other relevant datasets including those with spatiotemporal granularity; 2) interchange design processes to enable operational and economic assessments ofmultiple design configurations, including the integration of current and new innovative technologies; and 3) conduct trade-off analysis to help understand the site-specific techno-economic trade-offs and inform technology decisions. This study uses the ALM to investigate a baseline open-pond production system determined by model harmonization efforts conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy. Six sites in the U.S. southern-tierwere sub-selected and assessed using daily site-specific algaebiomass productivity data to determine the economic viability of large-scale open-pond systems. Results show that costs can vary

  4. Assessment of Algal Farm Designs Using a Dynamic Modular Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Abodeely, Jared; Coleman, Andre M.; Stevens, Daniel M.; Ray, Allison E.; Cafferty, Kara G.; Newby, Deborah T.

    2014-07-01

    The notion of renewable energy provides an important mechanism for diversifying an energy portfolio, which ultimately would have numerous benefits including increased energy resilience, reduction of foreign energy supplies, reduced GHG emissions, development of a green energy sector that contributes to economic growth, and providing a sustainable energy supply. The conversion of autotrophic algae to liquid transportation fuels is the basis of several decades of research to competitively bring energy-scale production into reality; however, many challenges still remain for making algal biofuels economically viable. Addressing current challenges associated with algal production systems, in part, requires the ability to assess spatial and temporal variability, rapidly evaluate alternative algal production system designs, and perform large-scale assessments considering multiple scenarios for thousands of potential sites. We introduce the Algae Logistics Model (ALM) which helps to address these challenges. The flexible nature of the ALM architecture allows the model to: 1) interface with external biomass production and resource assessment models, as well as other relevant datasets including those with spatiotemporal granularity; 2) interchange design processes to enable operational and economic assessments of multiple design configurations, including the integration of current and new innovative technologies; and 3) conduct trade-off analysis to help understand the site-specific techno-economic trade-offs and inform technology decisions. This study uses the ALM to investigate a baseline open-pond production system determined by model harmonization efforts conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy. Six sites in the U.S. southern-tier were sub-selected and assessed using daily site-specific algae biomass productivity data to determine the economic viability of large-scale open-pond systems. Results show that costs can vary significantly depending on location and biomass

  5. Effects of DDT and dicofol on population growth of Brachionus calyciflorus under different algal (Scenedesmus obliquus) densities.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiao-Ping; Xi, Yi-Long; Chu, Zhao-Xia; Xiang, Xian-Ling

    2014-09-01

    A number of organochlorine pesticides, including DDT and dicofol, used to be important in crop protection and management. Their residues may reach water bodies and eventually affect the non-target organisms such as rotifers. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of DDT (0.05, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg l(-1)) and dicofol (0.1, 0.2, 0.4 and 0.8 mg l(-1)) on the population growth of rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus under two levels of Scenedesmus obliquus (1.0 x 10(6) and 3.0 x 10(6) cell ml(-1)). Regardless of the food level, DDT was more toxic than dicofol to B. calyciflorus. Under low food level, DDT at 0.1 and 0.2 mg l(-1) decreased the population growth rate (r), and DDT at 0.05-0.4 mg l(-1) decreased the maximum population density (K). Dicofol at 0.4 and 0.8 mg l(-1) decreased r and K, but dicofol at 0.2 mg l(-1) increased K. Under high food level, DDT at 0.05-0.2 mg l(-1) increased K, whereas DDT at 0.4 mg l(-1) as well as dicofol at 0.4 and 0.8 mg l(-1) decreased r and K. Increase in food level increased r exposed to DDT at 0.05-0.2 mg l(-1) as well as dicofol at 0.8 mg l(-1), and Kexposed to DDTat 0.05-0.2 mg l(-1) as well as dicofol at 0.1 and 0.2 mg l(-1). DDT concentration, algal density and their interaction affected r and K of B. calyciflorus. Both dicofol concentration and algal density affected r. Dicofol concentration, algal density and their interaction affected K. Both r and K were suitable endpoints for assessing the effects of DDT and dicofol on the rotifers population dynamics under two algal densities, and the latter was more sensitive.

  6. Flagellar waveform dynamics of freely swimming algal cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurtuldu, H.; Tam, D.; Hosoi, A. E.; Johnson, K. A.; Gollub, J. P.

    2013-07-01

    We present quantitative measurements of time-dependent flagellar waveforms for freely swimming biflagellated algal cells, for both synchronous and asynchronous beating. We use the waveforms in conjunction with resistive force theory as well as a singularity method to predict a cell's time-dependent velocity for comparison with experiments. While net propulsion is thought to arise from asymmetry between the power and recovery strokes, we show that hydrodynamic interactions between the flagella and cell body on the return stroke make an important contribution to enhance net forward motion.

  7. Virophage control of antarctic algal host-virus dynamics.

    PubMed

    Yau, Sheree; Lauro, Federico M; DeMaere, Matthew Z; Brown, Mark V; Thomas, Torsten; Raftery, Mark J; Andrews-Pfannkoch, Cynthia; Lewis, Matthew; Hoffman, Jeffrey M; Gibson, John A; Cavicchioli, Ricardo

    2011-04-12

    Viruses are abundant ubiquitous members of microbial communities and in the marine environment affect population structure and nutrient cycling by infecting and lysing primary producers. Antarctic lakes are microbially dominated ecosystems supporting truncated food webs in which viruses exert a major influence on the microbial loop. Here we report the discovery of a virophage (relative of the recently described Sputnik virophage) that preys on phycodnaviruses that infect prasinophytes (phototrophic algae). By performing metaproteogenomic analysis on samples from Organic Lake, a hypersaline meromictic lake in Antarctica, complete virophage and near-complete phycodnavirus genomes were obtained. By introducing the virophage as an additional predator of a predator-prey dynamic model we determined that the virophage stimulates secondary production through the microbial loop by reducing overall mortality of the host and increasing the frequency of blooms during polar summer light periods. Virophages remained abundant in the lake 2 y later and were represented by populations with a high level of major capsid protein sequence variation (25-100% identity). Virophage signatures were also found in neighboring Ace Lake (in abundance) and in two tropical lakes (hypersaline and fresh), an estuary, and an ocean upwelling site. These findings indicate that virophages regulate host-virus interactions, influence overall carbon flux in Organic Lake, and play previously unrecognized roles in diverse aquatic ecosystems. PMID:21444812

  8. In Situ Oxygen Dynamics in Coral-Algal Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Wangpraseurt, Daniel; Weber, Miriam; Røy, Hans; Polerecky, Lubos; de Beer, Dirk; Suharsono; Nugues, Maggy M.

    2012-01-01

    Background Coral reefs degrade globally at an alarming rate, with benthic algae often replacing corals. However, the extent to which benthic algae contribute to coral mortality, and the potential mechanisms involved, remain disputed. Recent laboratory studies suggested that algae kill corals by inducing hypoxia on the coral surface, through stimulated microbial respiration. Methods/Findings We examined the main premise of this hypothesis by measuring in situ oxygen microenvironments at the contact interface between the massive coral Porites spp. and turf algae, and between Porites spp. and crustose coralline algae (CCA). Oxygen levels at the interface were similar to healthy coral tissue and ranged between 300–400 µM during the day. At night, the interface was hypoxic (∼70 µM) in coral-turf interactions and close to anoxic (∼2 µM) in coral-CCA interactions, but these values were not significantly different from healthy tissue. The diffusive boundary layer (DBL) was about three times thicker at the interface than above healthy tissue, due to a depression in the local topography. A numerical model, developed to analyze the oxygen profiles above the irregular interface, revealed strongly reduced net photosynthesis and dark respiration rates at the coral-algal interface compared to unaffected tissue during the day and at night, respectively. Conclusions/Significance Our results showed that hypoxia was not a consistent feature in the microenvironment of the coral-algal interface under in situ conditions. Therefore, hypoxia alone is unlikely to be the cause of coral mortality. Due to the modified topography, the interaction zone is distinguished by a thicker diffusive boundary layer, which limits the local metabolic activity and likely promotes accumulation of potentially harmful metabolic products (e.g., allelochemicals and protons). Our study highlights the importance of mass transfer phenomena and the need for direct in situ measurements of microenvironmental

  9. Algal genotype and photoacclimatory responses of the symbiotic alga Symbiodinium in natural populations of the sea anemone Anemonia viridis

    PubMed Central

    Bythell, J. C.; Douglas, A. E.; Sharp, V. A.; Searle, J. B.; Brown, B. E.

    1997-01-01

    As an approach to investigate the impact of solar radiation on an alga–invertebrate symbiosis, the genetic variation and photosynthetic responses of the dinoflagellate algal symbiosis in an intertidal and a subtidal population of the sea anemone Anemonia viridis were explored. Allozyme analysis of the anemones indicated that the two populations were genetically very similar, with a Nei's index value of genetic identity (I) of 0.998. The algae in all animals examined were identified as Symbiodinium of clade a by PCR-RFLP analysis of the small subunit ribosomal RNA gene. The symbiosis in the two populations did not differ significantly in algal population density, chlorophyll a content per algal cell or any photosynthetic parameter obtained from studies of the relationship between photosynthesis and irradiance. We conclude that there is not necessarily genetic variation or photosynthetic plasticity of the symbiotic algae in Anemonia viridis inhabiting environments characterized by the different solar irradiances of the subtidal and intertidal habitats.

  10. Algal Populations and Water Quality in Florida Lakes: Sedimentary Evidence of Anthropogenic Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitmore, M. R.; Whitmore, T. J.; Brenner, M.; Smoak, J.; Curtis, J.

    2004-05-01

    Cyanobacteria and other algae dominate many highly productive Florida (U.S.A.) lakes. Algal proliferation is often attributed to eutrophication during the last century, but it is poorly documented because Florida's water-quality monitoring programs became common only after 1980. We examined sediment cores from 14 hypereutrophic Florida lakes. Study lakes have been subjected to urbanization, agriculture, and to inputs of municipal sewage effluent and food-processing wastes. Major algal-pigment groups were analyzed in sediments using pigment-extraction and spectrophotometric techniques. We compared myxoxanthophyll, oscillaxanthin, total carotenoid, and total chlorophyll pigment profiles with WACALIB-derived limnetic total-P and chlorophyll a inferences based on fossil diatoms, sediment chemistry, and stable isotope (δ 13C & δ 15N) signatures of organic matter. Sedimentary evidence showed that cyanobacterial and algal proliferation appeared during recent decades in 10 study lakes in response to eutrophication. Cyanobacterial increase was very recent and abrupt in 7 lakes. Six lakes showed recovery following nutrient-mitigation programs that reduced sewage and other point-source effluent inputs. Four lakes showed long-term presence of cyanobacterial populations because edaphic nutrient supply causes these lakes to be naturally productive. Three of these naturally eutrophic lakes remained unchanged, but one demonstrated eutrophication followed by subsequent recovery. Correlations were particularly strong among sedimented pigment profiles and diatom-inferred limnetic water-quality profiles. Paleolimnological methods provide informative assessment of anthropogenic influence on lakes when long-term water-quality data are lacking. Historic studies also are useful for evaluating the feasibility of improving water quality through lake-management programs, and for defining appropriate lake restoration goals.

  11. [Harmful algal blooms in Italy and their health effects in the population].

    PubMed

    Ferrante, Margherita; Ledda, Caterina; Cunsolo, Maria A; Fiore, Maria; Fallico, Roberto; Sciacca, Salvatore; Oliveri Conti, Gea M

    2010-01-01

    The authors discuss harmful algal bloom, a seasonal phenomenon that in recent years has become increasingly frequent along Italian coasts. A classification of algal bloom is given and algal toxins and their effects on human health are discussed. The authors then describe the algal bloom phenomenon observed in Italy from the 1960s to the present time. Finally they briefly describe Italian legislation on the subject matter and highlight its shortcomings.

  12. An association network analysis among microeukaryotes and bacterioplankton reveals algal bloom dynamics.

    PubMed

    Tan, Shangjin; Zhou, Jin; Zhu, Xiaoshan; Yu, Shichen; Zhan, Wugen; Wang, Bo; Cai, Zhonghua

    2015-02-01

    Algal blooms are a worldwide phenomenon and the biological interactions that underlie their regulation are only just beginning to be understood. It is established that algal microorganisms associate with many other ubiquitous, oceanic organisms, but the interactions that lead to the dynamics of bloom formation are currently unknown. To address this gap, we used network approaches to investigate the association patterns among microeukaryotes and bacterioplankton in response to a natural Scrippsiella trochoidea bloom. This is the first study to apply network approaches to bloom dynamics. To this end, terminal restriction fragment (T-RF) length polymorphism analysis showed dramatic changes in community compositions of microeukaryotes and bacterioplankton over the blooming period. A variance ratio test revealed significant positive overall associations both within and between microeukaryotic and bacterioplankton communities. An association network generated from significant correlations between T-RFs revealed that S. trochoidea had few connections to other microeukaryotes and bacterioplankton and was placed on the edge. This lack of connectivity allowed for the S. trochoidea sub-network to break off from the overall network. These results allowed us to propose a conceptual model for explaining how changes in microbial associations regulate the dynamics of an algal bloom. In addition, key T-RFs were screened by principal components analysis, correlation coefficients, and network analysis. Dominant T-RFs were then identified through 18S and 16S rRNA gene clone libraries. Results showed that microeukaryotes clustered predominantly with Dinophyceae and Perkinsea while the majority of bacterioplankton identified were Alphaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Bacteroidetes. The ecologi-cal roles of both were discussed in the context of these findings. PMID:26986263

  13. Language dynamics in finite populations.

    PubMed

    Komarova, Natalia L; Nowak, Martin A

    2003-04-01

    Any mechanism of language acquisition can only learn a restricted set of grammars. The human brain contains a mechanism for language acquisition which can learn a restricted set of grammars. The theory of this restricted set is universal grammar (UG). UG has to be sufficiently specific to induce linguistic coherence in a population. This phenomenon is known as "coherence threshold". Previously, we have calculated the coherence threshold for deterministic dynamics and infinitely large populations. Here, we extend the framework to stochastic processes and finite populations. If there is selection for communicative function (selective language dynamics), then the analytic results for infinite populations are excellent approximations for finite populations; as expected, finite populations need a slightly higher accuracy of language acquisition to maintain coherence. If there is no selection for communicative function (neutral language dynamics), then linguistic coherence is only possible for finite populations.

  14. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  15. Discreteness effects in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Lecomte, Vivien

    2016-05-01

    We analyse numerically the effects of small population size in the initial transient regime of a simple example population dynamics. These effects play an important role for the numerical determination of large deviation functions of additive observables for stochastic processes. A method commonly used in order to determine such functions is the so-called cloning algorithm which in its non-constant population version essentially reduces to the determination of the growth rate of a population, averaged over many realizations of the dynamics. However, the averaging of populations is highly dependent not only on the number of realizations of the population dynamics, and on the initial population size but also on the cut-off time (or population) considered to stop their numerical evolution. This may result in an over-influence of discreteness effects at initial times, caused by small population size. We overcome these effects by introducing a (realization-dependent) time delay in the evolution of populations, additional to the discarding of the initial transient regime of the population growth where these discreteness effects are strong. We show that the improvement in the estimation of the large deviation function comes precisely from these two main contributions.

  16. Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data.

    PubMed

    Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R

    2016-02-01

    Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes. PMID:27145611

  17. Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data.

    PubMed

    Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R

    2016-02-01

    Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes.

  18. Influence of Diadema antillarum populations (Echinodermata: Diadematidae) on algal community structure in Jardines de la Reina, Cuba.

    PubMed

    Martín Blanco, Félix; Clero Alonso, Lídice; González Sansón, Gaspar; Amargós Fabián, Pina

    2011-09-01

    The 1983-1984 mass mortality of Diadema antillarum produced severe damages on Caribbean reefs contributing to substantial changes in community structure that still persist. Despite the importance of Diadema grazing in structuring coral reefs, available information on current abundances and algal-urchin interactions in Cuba is scarce. We analyzed spatial variations in Diadema abundance and its influence on algal community structure in 22 reef sites in Jardines de la Reina, in June/2004 and April/2005. Urchins were counted in five 30 x 2m transects per site, and algal coverage was estimated in randomly located 0.25m side quadrats (15 per site). Abundances of Diadema were higher at reef crests (0.013-1.553 ind/m2), while reef slope populations showed values up to three orders of magnitude lower and were overgrown by macroalgae (up to 87%, local values). Algal community structure at reef slopes were dominated by macroalgae, especially Dictyota, Lobophora and Halimeda while the most abundant macroalgae at reef crests were Halimeda and Amphiroa. Urchin densities were negatively and positively correlated with mean coverage of macroalgae and crustose coralline algae, respectively, when analyzing data pooled across all sites, but not with data from separate habitats (specially reef crest), suggesting, along with historical fish biomass, that shallow reef community structure is being shaped by the synergistic action of other factors (e.g. fish grazing) rather than the influence of Diadema alone. However, we observed clear signs of Diadema grazing at reef crests and decreased macroalgal cover according to 2001 data, what suggest that grazing intensity at this habitat increased at the same time that Diadema recruitment began to be noticeable. Furthermore, the excessive abundance of macroalgae at reef slopes and the scarcity of crustose coralline algae seems to be due by the almost complete absence of D. antillarum at mid depth reefs, where local densities of this urchin were

  19. Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1979-01-01

    The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

  20. Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Bariabagar, H

    1978-01-01

    2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

  1. Optimizing algal cultivation & productivity : an innovative, multidiscipline, and multiscale approach.

    SciTech Connect

    Murton, Jaclyn K.; Hanson, David T.; Turner, Tom; Powell, Amy Jo; James, Scott Carlton; Timlin, Jerilyn Ann; Scholle, Steven; August, Andrew; Dwyer, Brian P.; Ruffing, Anne; Jones, Howland D. T.; Ricken, James Bryce; Reichardt, Thomas A.

    2010-04-01

    Progress in algal biofuels has been limited by significant knowledge gaps in algal biology, particularly as they relate to scale-up. To address this we are investigating how culture composition dynamics (light as well as biotic and abiotic stressors) describe key biochemical indicators of algal health: growth rate, photosynthetic electron transport, and lipid production. Our approach combines traditional algal physiology with genomics, bioanalytical spectroscopy, chemical imaging, remote sensing, and computational modeling to provide an improved fundamental understanding of algal cell biology across multiple cultures scales. This work spans investigations from the single-cell level to ensemble measurements of algal cell cultures at the laboratory benchtop to large greenhouse scale (175 gal). We will discuss the advantages of this novel, multidisciplinary strategy and emphasize the importance of developing an integrated toolkit to provide sensitive, selective methods for detecting early fluctuations in algal health, productivity, and population diversity. Progress in several areas will be summarized including identification of spectroscopic signatures for algal culture composition, stress level, and lipid production enabled by non-invasive spectroscopic monitoring of the photosynthetic and photoprotective pigments at the single-cell and bulk-culture scales. Early experiments compare and contrast the well-studied green algae chlamydomonas with two potential production strains of microalgae, nannochloropsis and dunnaliella, under optimal and stressed conditions. This integrated approach has the potential for broad impact on algal biofuels and bioenergy and several of these opportunities will be discussed.

  2. Evolutionary dynamics on interdependent populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Gracia-Lázaro, Carlos; Floría, Luis Mario; Moreno, Yamir

    2012-11-01

    Although several mechanisms can promote cooperative behavior, there is no general consensus about why cooperation survives when the most profitable action for an individual is to defect, especially when the population is well mixed. Here we show that when a replicator such as evolutionary game dynamics takes place on interdependent networks, cooperative behavior is fixed on the system. Remarkably, we analytically and numerically show that this is even the case for well-mixed populations. Our results open the path to mechanisms able to sustain cooperation and can provide hints for controlling its rise and fall in a variety of biological and social systems.

  3. Analysis of green algal growth via dynamic model simulation and process optimization.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dongda; Chanona, Ehecatl Antonio Del-Rio; Vassiliadis, Vassilios S; Tamburic, Bojan

    2015-10-01

    Chlamydomonas reinhardtii is a green microalga with the potential to generate sustainable biofuels for the future. Process simulation models are required to predict the impact of laboratory-scale growth experiments on future scaled-up system operation. Two dynamic models were constructed to simulate C. reinhardtii photo-autotrophic and photo-mixotrophic growth. A novel parameter estimation methodology was applied to determine the values of key parameters in both models, which were then verified using experimental results. The photo-mixotrophic model was used to accurately predict C. reinhardtii growth under different light intensities and in different photobioreactor configurations. The optimal dissolved CO2 concentration for C. reinhardtii photo-autotrophic growth was determined to be 0.0643 g·L(-1) , and the optimal light intensity for algal growth was 47 W·m(-2) . Sensitivity analysis revealed that the primary factor limiting C. reinhardtii growth was its intrinsic cell decay rate rather than light attenuation, regardless of the growth mode. The photo-mixotrophic growth model was also applied to predict the maximum biomass concentration at different flat-plate photobioreactors scales. A double-exposure-surface photobioreactor with a lower light intensity (less than 50 W·m(-2) ) was the best configuration for scaled-up C. reinhardtii cultivation. Three different short-term (30-day) C. reinhardtii photo-mixotrophic cultivation processes were simulated and optimised. The maximum biomass productivity was 0.053 g·L(-1) ·hr(-1) , achieved under continuous photobioreactor operation. The continuous stirred-tank reactor was the best operating mode, as it provides both the highest biomass productivity and lowest electricity cost of pump operation. PMID:25855209

  4. Analysis of green algal growth via dynamic model simulation and process optimization.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dongda; Chanona, Ehecatl Antonio Del-Rio; Vassiliadis, Vassilios S; Tamburic, Bojan

    2015-10-01

    Chlamydomonas reinhardtii is a green microalga with the potential to generate sustainable biofuels for the future. Process simulation models are required to predict the impact of laboratory-scale growth experiments on future scaled-up system operation. Two dynamic models were constructed to simulate C. reinhardtii photo-autotrophic and photo-mixotrophic growth. A novel parameter estimation methodology was applied to determine the values of key parameters in both models, which were then verified using experimental results. The photo-mixotrophic model was used to accurately predict C. reinhardtii growth under different light intensities and in different photobioreactor configurations. The optimal dissolved CO2 concentration for C. reinhardtii photo-autotrophic growth was determined to be 0.0643 g·L(-1) , and the optimal light intensity for algal growth was 47 W·m(-2) . Sensitivity analysis revealed that the primary factor limiting C. reinhardtii growth was its intrinsic cell decay rate rather than light attenuation, regardless of the growth mode. The photo-mixotrophic growth model was also applied to predict the maximum biomass concentration at different flat-plate photobioreactors scales. A double-exposure-surface photobioreactor with a lower light intensity (less than 50 W·m(-2) ) was the best configuration for scaled-up C. reinhardtii cultivation. Three different short-term (30-day) C. reinhardtii photo-mixotrophic cultivation processes were simulated and optimised. The maximum biomass productivity was 0.053 g·L(-1) ·hr(-1) , achieved under continuous photobioreactor operation. The continuous stirred-tank reactor was the best operating mode, as it provides both the highest biomass productivity and lowest electricity cost of pump operation.

  5. Dynamic evolution of telomeric sequences in the green algal order Chlamydomonadales.

    PubMed

    Fulnečková, Jana; Hasíková, Tereza; Fajkus, Jiří; Lukešová, Alena; Eliáš, Marek; Sýkorová, Eva

    2012-01-01

    Telomeres, which form the protective ends of eukaryotic chromosomes, are a ubiquitous and conserved structure of eukaryotic genomes but the basic structural unit of most telomeres, a repeated minisatellite motif with the general consensus sequence T(n)A(m)G(o), may vary between eukaryotic groups. Previous studies on several species of green algae revealed that this group exhibits at least two types of telomeric sequences, a presumably ancestral type shared with land plants (Arabidopsis type, TTTAGGG) and conserved in, for example, Ostreococcus and Chlorella species, and a novel type (Chlamydomonas type, TTTTAGGG) identified in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. We have employed several methodical approaches to survey the diversity of telomeric sequences in a phylogenetically wide array of green algal species, focusing on the order Chlamydomonadales. Our results support the view that the Arabidopsis-type telomeric sequence is ancestral for green algae and has been conserved in most lineages, including Mamiellophyceae, Chlorodendrophyceae, Trebouxiophyceae, Sphaeropleales, and most Chlamydomonadales. However, within the Chlamydomonadales, at least two independent evolutionary changes to the Chlamydomonas type occurred, specifically in a subgroup of the Reinhardtinia clade (including C. reinhardtii and Volvox carteri) and in the Chloromonadinia clade. Furthermore, a complex structure of telomeric repeats, including a mix of the ancestral Arabidopsis-type motifs and derived motifs identical to the human-type telomeric repeats (TTAGGG), was found in the chlamydomonadalean clades Dunaliellinia and Stephanosphaeria. Our results indicate that telomere evolution in green algae, particularly in the order Chlamydomonadales, is far more dynamic and complex than thought before. General implications of our findings for the mode of telomere evolution are discussed. PMID:22247428

  6. Remote sensing of ALGAL pigments to determine coastal phytoplankton dynamics in Florida Bay

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, L.L.; Ambrosia, V.G.

    1997-06-01

    An important component of remote sensing of marine and coastal environments is the detection of phytoplankton to estimate biological activity. Traditionally the focus has been on detection of chlorophyll a, a photosynthetic pigment common to all algal groups. Recent advances in remote sensing instrumentation, in particular the development of hyperspectral imaging sensors, allow detection of additional algal pigments that include taxonomically significant photosynthetic and photoprotective accessory pigments. We are working with the hyperspectral imaging sensor AVIRIS (the Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) to characterize phytoplankton blooms in Florida Bay. Our data analysis focuses on intersection of image data (and image-derived spectral data) with our in-house library of algal pigment signatures.

  7. Diversity and dynamics of algal Megaviridae members during a harmful brown tide caused by the pelagophyte, Aureococcus anophagefferens.

    PubMed

    Moniruzzaman, Mohammad; Gann, Eric R; LeCleir, Gary R; Kang, Yoonja; Gobler, Christopher J; Wilhelm, Steven W

    2016-05-01

    Many giant dsDNA algal viruses share a common ancestor with Mimivirus--one of the largest viruses, in terms of genetic content. Together, these viruses form the proposed 'Megaviridae' clade of nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses. To gauge Megaviridae diversity, we designed degenerate primers targeting the major capsid protein genes of algae-infecting viruses within this group and probed the clade's diversity during the course of a brown tide bloom caused by the harmful pelagophyte,Aureococcus anophagefferens We amplified target sequences in water samples from two distinct locations (Weesuck Creek and Quantuck Bay, NY) covering 12 weeks concurrent with the proliferation and demise of a bloom. In total, 475 amplicons clustered into 145 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) at 97% identity. One OTU contained 19 sequences with ≥97% identity to AaV, a member of the Megaviridae clade that infects A. anophagefferens, suggesting AaV was present during the bloom. Unifrac analysis showed clear temporal patterns in algal Megaviridae dynamics, with a shift in the virus community structure that corresponded to the Aureococcus bloom decline in both locations. Our data provide insights regarding the environmental relevance of algal Megaviridae members and raise important questions regarding their phylodynamics across different environmental gradients.

  8. Diversity and dynamics of algal Megaviridae members during a harmful brown tide caused by the pelagophyte, Aureococcus anophagefferens.

    PubMed

    Moniruzzaman, Mohammad; Gann, Eric R; LeCleir, Gary R; Kang, Yoonja; Gobler, Christopher J; Wilhelm, Steven W

    2016-05-01

    Many giant dsDNA algal viruses share a common ancestor with Mimivirus--one of the largest viruses, in terms of genetic content. Together, these viruses form the proposed 'Megaviridae' clade of nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses. To gauge Megaviridae diversity, we designed degenerate primers targeting the major capsid protein genes of algae-infecting viruses within this group and probed the clade's diversity during the course of a brown tide bloom caused by the harmful pelagophyte,Aureococcus anophagefferens We amplified target sequences in water samples from two distinct locations (Weesuck Creek and Quantuck Bay, NY) covering 12 weeks concurrent with the proliferation and demise of a bloom. In total, 475 amplicons clustered into 145 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) at 97% identity. One OTU contained 19 sequences with ≥97% identity to AaV, a member of the Megaviridae clade that infects A. anophagefferens, suggesting AaV was present during the bloom. Unifrac analysis showed clear temporal patterns in algal Megaviridae dynamics, with a shift in the virus community structure that corresponded to the Aureococcus bloom decline in both locations. Our data provide insights regarding the environmental relevance of algal Megaviridae members and raise important questions regarding their phylodynamics across different environmental gradients. PMID:26985013

  9. Study on the dynamics of algal bloom and its influence factors in Tolo Harbour, Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Li, Y S; Chen, X; Wai, Onyx W H; King, B

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, the semi-enclosed bay named Tolo Harbour and Channel in Hong Kong, which was frequently attacked by red tides, was used as a case study. Data sets related to marine water quality, river nutrients, and meteorological conditions recorded between 1988 and 1999 were chosen for statistical analysis. A multivariate analysis showed that algal growth, represented by the chlorophyll a concentration, had obvious spatial and temporal variations in the study area. The chlorophyll a concentration had a consistently decreasing trend from the inner part of the Harbour and surface waters to the outer part and bottom waters. The temporal variations had a markedly seasonal variation with high bioproductivity in spring and winter. There were long-term fluctuations in the chlorophyll a concentration with a high-low-high pattern in the study period. Nutrients and hydrological and meteorological conditions were important factors of algal bloom. Besides nitrogen, which was the most critical factor of algal bloom for the whole water body, total phosphorus in the surface waters and phosphate (PO4) and silica (SiO2) in the bottom waters also showed strongly positive or negative correlations with the chlorophyll a level. For the meteorological conditions, global solar radiation was the key factor of massive algal bloom in the study period, while rainfall and wind direction were the most important factors of seasonal variation. PMID:16042112

  10. Intron Invasions Trace Algal Speciation and Reveal Nearly Identical Arctic and Antarctic Micromonas Populations.

    PubMed

    Simmons, Melinda P; Bachy, Charles; Sudek, Sebastian; van Baren, Marijke J; Sudek, Lisa; Ares, Manuel; Worden, Alexandra Z

    2015-09-01

    Spliceosomal introns are a hallmark of eukaryotic genes that are hypothesized to play important roles in genome evolution but have poorly understood origins. Although most introns lack sequence homology to each other, new families of spliceosomal introns that are repeated hundreds of times in individual genomes have recently been discovered in a few organisms. The prevalence and conservation of these introner elements (IEs) or introner-like elements in other taxa, as well as their evolutionary relationships to regular spliceosomal introns, are still unknown. Here, we systematically investigate introns in the widespread marine green alga Micromonas and report new families of IEs, numerous intron presence-absence polymorphisms, and potential intron insertion hot-spots. The new families enabled identification of conserved IE secondary structure features and establishment of a novel general model for repetitive intron proliferation across genomes. Despite shared secondary structure, the IE families from each Micromonas lineage bear no obvious sequence similarity to those in the other lineages, suggesting that their appearance is intimately linked with the process of speciation. Two of the new IE families come from an Arctic culture (Micromonas Clade E2) isolated from a polar region where abundance of this alga is increasing due to climate induced changes. The same two families were detected in metagenomic data from Antarctica--a system where Micromonas has never before been reported. Strikingly high identity between the Arctic isolate and Antarctic coding sequences that flank the IEs suggests connectivity between populations in the two polar systems that we postulate occurs through deep-sea currents. Recovery of Clade E2 sequences in North Atlantic Deep Waters beneath the Gulf Stream supports this hypothesis. Our research illuminates the dynamic relationships between an unusual class of repetitive introns, genome evolution, speciation, and global distribution of this

  11. Intron Invasions Trace Algal Speciation and Reveal Nearly Identical Arctic and Antarctic Micromonas Populations.

    PubMed

    Simmons, Melinda P; Bachy, Charles; Sudek, Sebastian; van Baren, Marijke J; Sudek, Lisa; Ares, Manuel; Worden, Alexandra Z

    2015-09-01

    Spliceosomal introns are a hallmark of eukaryotic genes that are hypothesized to play important roles in genome evolution but have poorly understood origins. Although most introns lack sequence homology to each other, new families of spliceosomal introns that are repeated hundreds of times in individual genomes have recently been discovered in a few organisms. The prevalence and conservation of these introner elements (IEs) or introner-like elements in other taxa, as well as their evolutionary relationships to regular spliceosomal introns, are still unknown. Here, we systematically investigate introns in the widespread marine green alga Micromonas and report new families of IEs, numerous intron presence-absence polymorphisms, and potential intron insertion hot-spots. The new families enabled identification of conserved IE secondary structure features and establishment of a novel general model for repetitive intron proliferation across genomes. Despite shared secondary structure, the IE families from each Micromonas lineage bear no obvious sequence similarity to those in the other lineages, suggesting that their appearance is intimately linked with the process of speciation. Two of the new IE families come from an Arctic culture (Micromonas Clade E2) isolated from a polar region where abundance of this alga is increasing due to climate induced changes. The same two families were detected in metagenomic data from Antarctica--a system where Micromonas has never before been reported. Strikingly high identity between the Arctic isolate and Antarctic coding sequences that flank the IEs suggests connectivity between populations in the two polar systems that we postulate occurs through deep-sea currents. Recovery of Clade E2 sequences in North Atlantic Deep Waters beneath the Gulf Stream supports this hypothesis. Our research illuminates the dynamic relationships between an unusual class of repetitive introns, genome evolution, speciation, and global distribution of this

  12. Intron Invasions Trace Algal Speciation and Reveal Nearly Identical Arctic and Antarctic Micromonas Populations

    PubMed Central

    Simmons, Melinda P.; Bachy, Charles; Sudek, Sebastian; van Baren, Marijke J.; Sudek, Lisa; Ares, Manuel; Worden, Alexandra Z.

    2015-01-01

    Spliceosomal introns are a hallmark of eukaryotic genes that are hypothesized to play important roles in genome evolution but have poorly understood origins. Although most introns lack sequence homology to each other, new families of spliceosomal introns that are repeated hundreds of times in individual genomes have recently been discovered in a few organisms. The prevalence and conservation of these introner elements (IEs) or introner-like elements in other taxa, as well as their evolutionary relationships to regular spliceosomal introns, are still unknown. Here, we systematically investigate introns in the widespread marine green alga Micromonas and report new families of IEs, numerous intron presence–absence polymorphisms, and potential intron insertion hot-spots. The new families enabled identification of conserved IE secondary structure features and establishment of a novel general model for repetitive intron proliferation across genomes. Despite shared secondary structure, the IE families from each Micromonas lineage bear no obvious sequence similarity to those in the other lineages, suggesting that their appearance is intimately linked with the process of speciation. Two of the new IE families come from an Arctic culture (Micromonas Clade E2) isolated from a polar region where abundance of this alga is increasing due to climate induced changes. The same two families were detected in metagenomic data from Antarctica—a system where Micromonas has never before been reported. Strikingly high identity between the Arctic isolate and Antarctic coding sequences that flank the IEs suggests connectivity between populations in the two polar systems that we postulate occurs through deep-sea currents. Recovery of Clade E2 sequences in North Atlantic Deep Waters beneath the Gulf Stream supports this hypothesis. Our research illuminates the dynamic relationships between an unusual class of repetitive introns, genome evolution, speciation, and global distribution of

  13. Flood trends and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  14. Simulation of algal bloom dynamics in a river with the ensemble Kalman filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Kyunghyun; Park, Minji; Min, Joong-Hyuk; Ryu, Ingu; Kang, Mi-Ri; Park, Lan Joo

    2014-11-01

    A simulation framework of algal bloom in a river channel with data assimilation (DA) was developed by employing two numerical models coupled to simulate a watershed and the embedded river channel. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model simulates flow discharge and water quality from the subwatersheds and the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model takes the subwatershed model outputs at the watershed-river confluence points as boundary forcing to simulate river hydrodynamics and water quality. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was used for assimilation of water quality variables in the framework, linking uncertainty of model simulation and observation. The simulation uncertainty of the HSPF was quantified at the confluence points as simple stochastic error models developed by comparing the model simulation and the observation. The error models reflect uncertainty of both hydrologic and water quality simulation, including uncertainty associated with point and non-point pollution sources in the watershed. The outputs of the HSPF at the confluence points were perturbed with the error models before used in the following ensemble simulation of the EFDC for the main river. DA was conducted with weekly chlorophyll-a data observed along the river to update chlorophyll-a concentrations of the EFDC model grids. The results showed that the model performance was improved by the assimilation: the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean continuous probability rank score (CPRS) significantly decreased compared to the open-loop simulation. The updated spatial distribution of chlorophyll-a concentration along the river channel was in reasonable agreement with the observation. Although only chlorophyll-a data was involved in the assimilation, phosphate was selected among other water quality variables for update in order to evaluate the effect of chlorophyll-a assimilation on those variables. It turned out that the phosphate simulation was not much

  15. [Population structure and dynamics: the population matrix].

    PubMed

    Wang, C S; Gorter, D

    1990-08-01

    "This article shows an alternative way of presenting population data. The population matrix, constructed as an important part in the process of compiling socio-demographic accounts, demonstrates the close connection between stock and flow data, bringing both types of data consistently together." Official data for the Netherlands are used to illustrate the concept. (SUMMARY IN ENG) PMID:12342861

  16. Population Growth of the Cladoceran, Daphnia magna: A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Different Algal Food

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Jong-Yun; Kim, Seong-Ki; Chang, Kwang-Hyeon; Kim, Myoung-Chul; La, Geung-Hwan; Joo, Gea-Jae; Jeong, Kwang-Seuk

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we examined the effects of two phytoplankton species, Chlorella vulgaris and Stephanodiscus hantzschii, on growth of the zooplankton Daphnia magna. Our experimental approach utilized stable isotopes to determine the contribution of food algae to offspring characteristics and to the size of adult D. magna individuals. When equal amounts of food algae were provided (in terms of carbon content), the size of individuals, adult zooplankton, and their offspring increased significantly following the provision of S. hantzschii, but not after the provision of C. vulgaris or of a combination of the two species. Offspring size was unaffected when C. vulgaris or a mixture of the two algal species was delivered, whereas providing only S. hantzschii increased the production of larger-sized offspring. Stable isotope analysis revealed significant assimilation of diatom-derived materials that was important for the growth of D. magna populations. Our results confirm the applicability of stable isotope approaches for clarifying the contribution of different food algae and elucidate the importance of food quality for growth of D. magna individuals and populations. Furthermore, we expect that stable isotope analysis will help to further precisely examine the contribution of prey to predators or grazers in controlled experiments. PMID:24752042

  17. Modeling population dynamics: A quantile approach.

    PubMed

    Chavas, Jean-Paul

    2015-04-01

    The paper investigates the modeling of population dynamics, both conceptually and empirically. It presents a reduced form representation that provides a flexible characterization of population dynamics. It leads to the specification of a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model, which captures nonlinear dynamics by allowing lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with previous population levels. The usefulness of the model is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of lynx population. We find statistical evidence that the quantile autoregression parameters vary across quantiles (thus rejecting the AR model as well as the TAR model) as well as with past populations (thus rejecting the quantile autoregression QAR model). The results document the nature of dynamics and cycle in the lynx population over time. They show how both the period of the cycle and the speed of population adjustment vary with population level and environmental conditions. PMID:25661501

  18. High Resolution Monitoring of Algal Growth Dynamics in a Hypereutrophic River in the Central Valley, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henson, S. S.; Dahlgren, R.; van Nieuwenhuyse, E.; O'Geen, A. T.; Gallo, E. L.; Ahearn, D. S.

    2005-05-01

    The lower San Joaquin River in California's Central Valley experiences periods of hypoxia during the late summer and fall that is detrimental to aquatic organisms and migration of fall-run chinook salmon and steelhead trout. Hypoxia is attributable, in part, to excess nutrients from urban waste water and agricultural runoff, which contribute to growth of high concentrations of phytoplankton. This study examined spatial and temporal growth patterns that control algal loading using continuous fluorescence measurements at three sites along a 50 km section of the lower San Joaquin River between April and October. A strong diel fluorescence signal was observed and associated grab samples verified that fluorescence was an accurate measure of chlorophyll. Peak chlorophyll concentrations occurred between 18:00 and 20:00 and minimum concentrations between 10:00 and 12:00. Maximum concentrations were nearly two times greater than minimum concentrations although this ratio varied temporally and spatially. Although the mechanism for the diel chlorophyll signal is not very well understood several parameters including temperature, irradiance, turbidity, residence time, stream depth, and zooplankton grazing were considered within the scope of this study. This study highlights the importance of considering high resolution sampling on algal loading rates within heavily impacted riverine systems.

  19. Population dynamics of obligate cooperators

    PubMed Central

    Courchamp, F.; Grenfell, B.; Clutton-Brock, T.

    1999-01-01

    Obligate cooperative breeding species demonstrate a high rate of group extinction, which may be due to the existence of a critical number of helpers below which the group cannot subsist. Through a simple model, we study the population dynamics of obligate cooperative breeding species, taking into account the existence of a lower threshold below which the instantaneous growth rate becomes negative. The model successively incorporates (i) a distinction between species that need helpers for reproduction, survival or both, (ii) the existence of a migration rate accounting for dispersal, and (iii) stochastic mortality to simulate the effects of random catastrophic events. Our results suggest that the need for a minimum number of helpers increases the risk of extinction for obligate cooperative breeding species. The constraint imposed by this threshold is higher when helpers are needed for reproduction only or for both reproduction and survival. By driving them below this lower threshold, stochastic mortality of lower amplitude and/or lower frequency than for non-cooperative breeders may be sufficient to cause the extinction of obligate cooperative breeding groups. Migration may have a buffering effect only for groups where immigration is higher than emigration; otherwise (when immigrants from nearby groups are not available) it lowers the difference between actual group size and critical threshold, thereby constituting a higher constraint.

  20. Population Dynamics of Viral Inactivation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freeman, Krista; Li, Dong; Behrens, Manja; Streletzky, Kiril; Olsson, Ulf; Evilevitch, Alex

    We have investigated the population dynamics of viral inactivation in vitrousing time-resolved cryo electron microscopy combined with light and X-ray scattering techniques. Using bacteriophage λ as a model system for pressurized double-stranded DNA viruses, we found that virions incubated with their cell receptor eject their genome in a stochastic triggering process. The triggering of DNA ejection occurs in a non synchronized manner after the receptor addition, resulting in an exponential decay of the number of genome-filled viruses with time. We have explored the characteristic time constant of this triggering process at different temperatures, salt conditions, and packaged genome lengths. Furthermore, using the temperature dependence we determined an activation energy for DNA ejections. The dependences of the time constant and activation energy on internal DNA pressure, affected by salt conditions and encapsidated genome length, suggest that the triggering process is directly dependent on the conformational state of the encapsidated DNA. The results of this work provide insight into how the in vivo kinetics of the spread of viral infection are influenced by intra- and extra cellular environmental conditions. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE-1252522.

  1. Atrazine does not affect algal biomass or snail populations in microcosm communities at environmentally relevant concentrations.

    PubMed

    Baxter, Leilan R; Moore, Dana L; Sibley, Paul K; Solomon, Keith R; Hanson, Mark L

    2011-07-01

    The herbicide atrazine is a photosynthetic inhibitor used around the world in agricultural applications. Contamination of surface waters adjacent to treated areas can directly reduce growth of nontarget aquatic autotrophs, but the severity of impacts is highly dependent on species sensitivity and exposure concentration. Secondary effects resulting from macrophyte or phytoplankton decline may include an expansion of the more tolerant periphyton community. Recently, this shift in the autotrophic community has been proposed as a mechanism for increased rates of parasite infections in amphibians via augmented populations of aquatic snails which act as intermediate hosts to larval trematodes. To further clarify this relationship, an outdoor microcosm study was conducted to examine the effects of atrazine on primary production and snail populations over a range of environmentally relevant concentrations. In July 2009, 15 experimental ponds were treated to achieve initial concentrations of 0, 1, 10, 30, and 100 µg/L atrazine. Over a period of 73 d, measures were taken of macrophyte, phytoplankton, and periphyton biomass, growth, and fecundity of caged snails (Physella spp. and Stagnicola elodes) and free-living snails (Physella spp.). Except for declines in macrophyte biomass at the highest treatment level, no consistent relationships were found between atrazine concentration and any measured parameter. Comparison of these results with previous findings highlights the variability of responses to atrazine exposure between similarly constructed freshwater communities, even at concentrations up to 20 times higher than sustained environmental levels. PMID:21567448

  2. Atrazine does not affect algal biomass or snail populations in microcosm communities at environmentally relevant concentrations.

    PubMed

    Baxter, Leilan R; Moore, Dana L; Sibley, Paul K; Solomon, Keith R; Hanson, Mark L

    2011-07-01

    The herbicide atrazine is a photosynthetic inhibitor used around the world in agricultural applications. Contamination of surface waters adjacent to treated areas can directly reduce growth of nontarget aquatic autotrophs, but the severity of impacts is highly dependent on species sensitivity and exposure concentration. Secondary effects resulting from macrophyte or phytoplankton decline may include an expansion of the more tolerant periphyton community. Recently, this shift in the autotrophic community has been proposed as a mechanism for increased rates of parasite infections in amphibians via augmented populations of aquatic snails which act as intermediate hosts to larval trematodes. To further clarify this relationship, an outdoor microcosm study was conducted to examine the effects of atrazine on primary production and snail populations over a range of environmentally relevant concentrations. In July 2009, 15 experimental ponds were treated to achieve initial concentrations of 0, 1, 10, 30, and 100 µg/L atrazine. Over a period of 73 d, measures were taken of macrophyte, phytoplankton, and periphyton biomass, growth, and fecundity of caged snails (Physella spp. and Stagnicola elodes) and free-living snails (Physella spp.). Except for declines in macrophyte biomass at the highest treatment level, no consistent relationships were found between atrazine concentration and any measured parameter. Comparison of these results with previous findings highlights the variability of responses to atrazine exposure between similarly constructed freshwater communities, even at concentrations up to 20 times higher than sustained environmental levels.

  3. Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Erez

    2005-03-01

    Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

  4. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  5. Temperature dependence of an estuarine harmful algal bloom: Resolving interannual variability in bloom dynamics using a degree day approach.

    PubMed

    Ralston, David K; Keafer, Bruce A; Brosnahan, Michael L; Anderson, Donald M

    2014-01-01

    Observations of harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense in an estuary over multiple years were used to assess drivers of their spatial and temporal variability. Nauset Estuary on Cape Cod, Massachusetts has a recurrent, self-seeding A. fundyense population that produces paralytic shellfish poisoning toxins and leads to nearly annual closure to shellfishing. Weekly surveys of the entire estuary were made in 3 of 4 consecutive years, with surveys of a subembayment during the intervening year. Major A. fundyense blooms were observed all 4 years, with maximum concentrations >10(6) cells L(-1). Concentrations were greatest in three salt ponds at the distal edges of the estuary. The bloom timing varied among the salt ponds and among years, although the blooms had similar durations and maximum cell concentrations. Nutrient concentrations did not correlate with the growth of the bloom, but differences in water temperature among years and ponds were significant. Net growth rates inferred from the surveys were similar to those from laboratory experiments, and increased linearly with temperature. A growing degree day calculation was used to account for effects of interannual variability and spatial gradients in water temperature on population development. The approach collapsed variability in the timing of bloom onset, development, and termination across years and among ponds, suggesting that this relatively simple metric could be used as an early-warning indicator for HABs in Nauset and similar areas with localized, self-seeding blooms.

  6. Phytoplankton dynamics with a special emphasis on harmful algal blooms in the Mar Piccolo of Taranto (Ionian Sea, Italy).

    PubMed

    Caroppo, Carmela; Cerino, Federica; Auriemma, Rocco; Cibic, Tamara

    2016-07-01

    The response of phytoplankton assemblages to the closure of urban sewage outfalls (USOs) was examined for the Mar Piccolo of Taranto (Mediterranean Sea), a productive semi-enclosed coastal marine ecosystem devoted to shellfish farming. Phytoplankton dynamics were investigated in relation to environmental variables, with a particular emphasis on harmful algal blooms (HABs). Recent analyses evidenced a general reduction of the inorganic nutrient loads, except for nitrates and silicates. Also phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) and abundances were characterized by a decrease of the values, except for the inner area of the basin (second inlet). The phytoplankton composition changed, with nano-sized species, indicators of oligotrophic conditions, becoming dominant over micro-sized species. If the closure of the USOs affected phytoplankton dynamics, however, it did not preserve the Mar Piccolo from HABs and anoxia crises. About 25 harmful species have been detected throughout the years, such as the potentially domoic acid producers Pseudo-nitzschia cf. galaxiae and P seudo-nitzschia cf. multistriata, identified for the first time in these waters. The presence of HABs represents a threat for human health and aquaculture. Urgent initiatives are needed to improve the communication with authorities responsible for environmental protection, economic development, and public health for a sustainable mussel culture in the Mar Piccolo.

  7. Population dynamics with and without selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pȩkalski, Andrzej; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2001-03-01

    A model describing population dynamics is presented. We study the effect of selection pressure and inbreeding on the time evolution of the population and the chances of survival. We find that the selection is in general beneficial, enabling survival of a population whose size is declining. Inbreeding reduces the survival chances since it leads to clustering of individuals. We have also found, in agreement with biological data, that there is a threshold value of the initial size of the population, as well as of the habitat, below which the population will almost certainly become extinct. We present analytical and computer simulation approaches.

  8. Immigration-extinction dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerson, Baruch; Ovaskainen, Otso

    2013-07-01

    How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population become extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without immigration? Under what conditions can one justify the simple patch occupancy models, which ignore the population distribution and its dynamics in a patch, and treat a patch simply as either occupied or empty? We answer these questions by exactly solving a simple stochastic model obtained by adding a steady immigration to a variant of the Verhulst model: a prototypical model of an isolated stochastic population.

  9. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  10. Travelling waves in vole population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranta, Esa; Kaitala, Veijo

    1997-12-01

    Spatial self-organization patterns in population dynamics have been anticipated, but demonstrating their existence requires sampling over long periods of time at a range of sites. Voles cause severe economic damage and are therefore extensively monitored, providing a source of the required data. Using two long-term data sets we now report the existence of travelling waves in vole population numbers.

  11. Forecast of Algal Bloom Dynamics in a River Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, K.; Ryu, I.; Min, J.; Shin, K.; Park, L.

    2011-12-01

    A forecasting framework of algal bloom in a river channel was developed by employing two numerical models coupled in serial order to simulate a watershed and the main river channel. The HSPF model simulates flow discharge and water quality from the watershed and the EFDC model takes the results as inputs to simulate river channel hydrodynamics and water quality. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was applied for data assimilation in the framework, linking uncertainties of inputs, model structures and observations. The input precipitation and water quality from point sources were perturbed to form ensemble members of state variables. The perturbation generated the ensemble of flow discharges and concentrations of water quality variables including Chl-a from HSPF model simulations, which were fed into the EFDC model. Stochastic forcing terms to simulate model structural errors were added for both models. Also an error distribution was used to address the measurement error. The framework was applied to theYoungsan River watershed, which is located in southwestern area of the Korean Peninsula (about 3,470 km2). The weather forecast data provided by Korean Meteorological Agency, consisting of combined data from the UM-Regional and UM-Global models, were used through the forecasting simulations. The HSPF model was calibrated for the observed flow and water quality data of 2009 to 2010 and the EFDC model for the data of 2008 to 2009 before they are used in forecasting. Data assimilation was conducted with weekly Chl-a data sampled along the river channel by updating Chl-a concentrations on the EFDC model grids. To keep mass conservation of water quality constituents, the other variables are also updated correspondingly, considering the changes due to growth, death and respiration of algae. The results show that EnKF works efficiently for updating spatial distribution of Chl-a concentrations. However, since the ensemble inputs at the boundary locations produced by the HSPF

  12. Modeling Algal Bloom Dynamics in a River Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, K.; Park, M.; Min, J.; Ryu, I.; Kang, M.; Park, L.

    2013-12-01

    A forecasting framework of algal bloom in a river channel was developed by employing two numerical models coupled in a serial order to simulate a watershed and the main river channel and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for data assimilation (DA). The HSPF model simulates flow discharge and water quality from the watershed and the EFDC model takes the results as boundary forcing to simulate river hydrodynamics and water quality. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was applied for DA in the framework, linking uncertainties of model simulations and observations. Stochastic error models to describe HSPF model simulation uncertainty were formed by comparing the simulation and observation values. The ensemble of the simulated HSPF model outputs, generated from the error models, reflect the uncertainties in the HSPF model's initial conditions, model structure and boundary conditions such as meteorological data and water quality data for point pollutant sources. Stochastic forcing terms to consider the model error of the EFDC model and observational error were added during the ensemble simulation of the EFDC model. The framework was applied to a section of the Han River watershed, located in the mid-eastern area of the Korean Peninsula. The HSPF and EFDC models were calibrated before they are used for hindcastings of the first nine months of 2012. DA was conducted with weekly chlorophyll-a (chl-a) data sampled along the river channel by updating chl-a concentrations of the EFDC model grids. The results show that EnKF works efficiently for updating spatial distribution of chl-a concentrations in the downstream part of the river section where flow retention time is relatively long. However, for the upstream part of river section with relatively fast flow, since the ensemble forcing at the tributary confluence points produced by the error models are not updated, the effect of DA is flushed away in just a couple of days by the flow from tributaries. In order to quantify

  13. Viral population dynamics and virulence thresholds.

    PubMed

    Lancaster, Karen Z; Pfeiffer, Julie K

    2012-08-01

    Viral factors and host barriers influence virally induced disease, and asymptomatic versus symptomatic infection is governed by a 'virulence threshold'. Understanding modulation of virulence thresholds could lend insight into disease outcome and aid in rational therapeutic and vaccine design. RNA viruses are an excellent system to study virulence thresholds in the context of quasispecies population dynamics. RNA viruses have high error frequencies and our understanding of viral population dynamics has been shaped by quasispecies evolutionary theory. In turn, research using RNA viruses as replicons with short generation times and high mutation rates has been an invaluable tool to test models of quasispecies theory. The challenge and new frontier of RNA virus population dynamics research is to combine multiple theoretical models and experimental data to describe viral population behavior as it changes, moving within and between hosts, to predict disease and pathogen emergence. Several excellent studies have begun to undertake this challenge using novel approaches.

  14. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics. PMID:26807744

  15. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  16. A stoichiometrically derived algal growth model and its global analysis.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiong; Wang, Hao

    2010-10-01

    Organisms are composed of multiple chemical elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. The scarcity of any of these elements can severely restrict organismal and population growth. However, many trophic interaction models only consider carbon limitation via energy flow. In this paper, we construct an algal growth model with the explicit incorporation of light and nutrient availability to characterize both carbon and phosphorus limitations. We provide a global analysis of this model to illustrate how light and nutrient availability regulate algal dynamics. PMID:21077710

  17. Population dynamics of defensive symbionts in aphids.

    PubMed

    Oliver, Kerry M; Campos, Jaime; Moran, Nancy A; Hunter, Martha S

    2008-02-01

    Vertically transmitted micro-organisms can increase in frequency in host populations by providing net benefits to hosts. While laboratory studies have identified diverse beneficial effects conferred by inherited symbionts of insects, they have not explicitly examined the population dynamics of mutualist symbiont infection within populations. In the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum, the inherited facultative symbiont, Hamiltonella defensa, provides protection against parasitism by the wasp, Aphidius ervi. Despite a high fidelity of vertical transmission and direct benefits of infection accruing to parasitized aphids, Hamiltonella remains only at intermediate frequencies in natural populations. Here, we conducted population cage experiments to monitor the dynamics of Hamiltonella and of another common A. pisum symbiont, Serratia symbiotica, in the presence and absence of parasitism. We also conducted fitness assays of Hamiltonella-infected aphids to search for costs to infection in the absence of parasitism. In the population cages, we found that the frequency of A. pisum infected with Hamiltonella increased dramatically after repeated exposure to parasitism by A. ervi, indicating that selection pressures from natural enemies can lead to the increase of particular inherited symbionts in insect populations. In our laboratory fitness assays, we did not detect a cost to infection with Hamiltonella, but in the population cages not exposed to parasitism, we found a significant decline in the frequency of both Hamiltonella and Serratia. The declining frequencies of Hamiltonella-infected aphids in population cages in the absence of parasitism indicate a probable cost to infection and may explain why Hamiltonella remains at intermediate frequencies in natural populations.

  18. Two complementary paradigms for analysing population dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Krebs, Charles J

    2002-01-01

    To understand why population growth rate is sometimes positive and sometimes negative, ecologists have adopted two main approaches. The most common approach is through the density paradigm by plotting population growth rate against population density. The second approach is through the mechanistic paradigm by plotting population growth rate against the relevant ecological processes affecting the population. The density paradigm is applied a posteriori, works sometimes but not always and is remarkably useless in solving management problems or in providing an understanding of why populations change in size. The mechanistic paradigm investigates the factors that supposedly drive density changes and is identical to Caughley's declining population paradigm of conservation biology. The assumption that we can uncover invariant relationships between population growth rate and some other variables is an article of faith. Numerous commercial fishery applications have failed to find the invariant relationships between stock and recruitment that are predicted by the density paradigm. Environmental variation is the rule, and non-equilibrial dynamics should force us to look for the mechanisms of population change. If multiple factors determine changes in population density, there can be no predictability in either of these paradigms and we will become environmental historians rather than scientists with useful generalizations for the population problems of this century. Defining our questions clearly and adopting an experimental approach with crisp alternative hypotheses and adequate controls will be essential to building useful generalizations for solving the practical problems of population management in fisheries, wildlife and conservation. PMID:12396513

  19. Detection, Diversity, and Population Dynamics of Waterborne Phytophthora ramorum Populations.

    PubMed

    Eyre, C A; Garbelotto, M

    2015-01-01

    Sudden oak death, the tree disease caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has significant environmental and economic impacts on natural forests on the U.S. west coast, plantations in the United Kingdom, and in the worldwide nursery trade. Stream baiting is vital for monitoring and early detection of the pathogen in high-risk areas and is performed routinely; however, little is known about the nature of water-borne P. ramorum populations. Two drainages in an infested California forest were monitored intensively using stream-baiting for 2 years between 2009 and 2011. Pathogen presence was determined both by isolation and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from symptomatic bait leaves. Isolates were analyzed using simple sequence repeats to study population dynamics and genetic structure through time. Isolation was successful primarily only during spring conditions, while PCR extended the period of pathogen detection to most of the year. Water populations were extremely diverse, and changed between seasons and years. A few abundant genotypes dominated the water during conditions considered optimal for aerial populations, and matched those dominant in aerial populations. Temporal patterns of genotypic diversification and evenness were identical among aerial, soil, and water populations, indicating that all three substrates are part of the same epidemiological cycle, strongly influenced by rainfall and sporulation on leaves. However, there was structuring between substrates, likely arising due to reduced selection pressure in the water. Additionally, water populations showed wholesale mixing of genotypes without the evident spatial autocorrelation present in leaf and soil populations.

  20. Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2012-01-01

    The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

  1. Combined effect of concentrations of algal food (Chlorella vulgaris) and salt (sodium chloride) on the population growth of Brachionus calyciflorus and Brachionus patulus (Rotifera).

    PubMed

    Peredo-Alvarez, Víctor M; Sarma, S S; Nandini, S

    2003-06-01

    Salinity is an important variable influencing the density and diversity of rotifers. Studies on salt tolerance of rotifers have so far concentrated on euryhaline species while very little information is available on non-euryhaline taxa. In the present work, we have evaluated the combined effects of Chlorella vulgaris and sodium chloride on the population growth of two freshwater rotifers B. calyciflorus and B. patulus. A 24 hr acute tolerance test using NaCl revealed that B. calyciflorus was more resistant (LC50 = 3.75 +/- 0.04 g l-1) than B. patulus (2.14 +/- 0.09 g l-1). The maximal population density (mean +/- standard error) for B. calyciflorus in the control at 4.5 x 10(6) cells ml-1 (algal level) was 80 +/- 5 ind. ml-1, which was nearly a fifth of the one for B. patulus (397 +/- 7 ind. ml-1) under comparable conditions. Data on population growth revealed that regardless of salt concentration, the density of B. calyciflorus increased with increasing food levels, while for B. patulus, this trend was evident only in the controls. Regardless of salt concentration and algal food level, the day of maximal population density was lower (4 +/- 0.5 days) for B. calyciflorus than for B. patulus (11 +/- 1 day). The highest rates of population increase (r values) for B. calyciflorus and B. patulus were 0.429 +/- 0.012 and 0.367 +/- 0.004, respectively, recorded at 4.5 x 10(6) cells ml-1 of Chlorella in the controls. The protective role of algae in reducing the effect of salt stress was more evident in B. calyciflorus than B. patulus. PMID:15162733

  2. Structural dynamics and ecology of flatfish populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bailey, Kevin M.

    1997-11-01

    The concept of structure in populations of marine fishes is fundamental to how we manage and conduct research on these resources. The degree of population structure ranges widely among flatfishes. Although we know that large populations tend to be subdivided into local populations, based on morphological, meristic and reproductive characteristics, these data often conflict with evidence on genetic stock structure, due to the scale and organization of movement within the metapopulation. Movement of individuals between local subpopulations and colonization events on a macroecological scale are probably important to some flatfish populations. Dispersal of larvae is known to be a major factor affecting population mixing. Some flatfishes have planktonic stages of long duration and for these species there is often, but not always, little population structure; gene flow sometimes may be limited by oceanographic features, such as eddies and fronts. At the juvenile stage dispersal can result in colonization of under-utilized habitats; however, for flatfishes with strong habitat requirements, this type of event may be less likely when suitable habitats are fragmented. Complex population structure has major implications for management, e.g. lumping harvested populations with little gene flow can have detrimental local effects. Moreover, the issue of population structure and movement influences the interpretation of research data, where populations are generally treated as closed systems. There is currently a strong need for a multidisciplinary approach to study fish population dynamics and the structure of their populations. This research should involve molecular geneticists, population geneticists, animal behaviourists and ecologists. Migration mechanisms, colonization and extinction events, gene flow and density-dependent movements are subject areas of great importance to managing large harvested populations, but our understanding of them at ecological scales, at least for

  3. Monitoring coyote population dynamics by genotyping faeces.

    PubMed

    Prugh, L R; Ritland, C E; Arthur, S M; Krebs, C J

    2005-04-01

    Reliable population estimates are necessary for effective conservation and management, and faecal genotyping has been used successfully to estimate the population size of several elusive mammalian species. Information such as changes in population size over time and survival rates, however, are often more useful for conservation biology than single population estimates. We evaluated the use of faecal genotyping as a tool for monitoring long-term population dynamics, using coyotes (Canis latrans) in the Alaska Range as a case study. We obtained 544 genotypes from 56 coyotes over 3 years (2000-2002). Tissue samples from all 15 radio-collared coyotes in our study area had > or = 1 matching faecal genotypes. We used flexible maximum-likelihood models to study coyote population dynamics, and we tested model performance against radio telemetry data. The staple prey of coyotes, snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), dramatically declined during this study, and the coyote population declined nearly two-fold with a 1(1/2)-year time lag. Survival rates declined the year after hares crashed but recovered the following year. We conclude that long-term monitoring of elusive species using faecal genotyping is feasible and can provide data that are useful for wildlife conservation and management. We highlight some drawbacks of standard open-population models, such as low precision and the requirement of discrete sampling intervals, and we suggest that the development of open models designed for continuously collected data would enhance the utility of faecal genotyping as a monitoring tool.

  4. Animal population dynamics: Identification of critical components

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Pikitch, E.K.

    1989-01-01

    There is a growing interest in the use of population dynamics models in environmental risk assessment and the promulgation of environmental regulatory policies. Unfortunately, because of species and areal differences in the physical and biotic influences on population dynamics, such models must almost inevitably be both complex and species- or site-specific. Given the emormous variety of species and sites of potential concern, this fact presents a problem; it simply is not possible to construct models for all species and circumstances. Therefore, it is useful, before building predictive population models, to discover what input parameters are of critical importance to the desired output. This information should enable the construction of simpler and more generalizable models. As a first step, it is useful to consider population models as composed to two, partly separable classes, one comprising the purely mechanical descriptors of dynamics from given demographic parameter values, and the other describing the modulation of the demographic parameters by environmental factors (changes in physical environment, species interactions, pathogens, xenobiotic chemicals). This division permits sensitivity analyses to be run on the first of these classes, providing guidance for subsequent model simplification. We here apply such a sensitivity analysis to network models of mammalian and avian population dynamics.

  5. Multispecies population dynamics of prebiotic compositional assemblies.

    PubMed

    Markovitch, Omer; Lancet, Doron

    2014-09-21

    Present life portrays a two-tier phenomenology: molecules compose supramolecular structures, such as cells or organisms, which in turn portray population behaviors, including selection, evolution and ecological dynamics. Prebiotic models have often focused on evolution in populations of self-replicating molecules, without explicitly invoking the intermediate molecular-to-supramolecular transition. Here, we explore a prebiotic model that allows one to relate parameters of chemical interaction networks within molecular assemblies to emergent population dynamics. We use the graded autocatalysis replication domain (GARD) model, which simulates the network dynamics within amphiphile-containing molecular assemblies, and exhibits quasi-stationary compositional states termed compotype species. These grow by catalyzed accretion, divide and propagate their compositional information to progeny in a replication-like manner. The model allows us to ask how molecular network parameters influence assembly evolution and population dynamics parameters. In 1000 computer simulations, each embodying different parameter set of the global chemical interaction network parameters, we observed a wide range of behaviors. These were analyzed by a multi species logistic model often used for analyzing population ecology (r-K or Lotka-Volterra competition model). We found that compotypes with a larger intrinsic molecular repertoire show a higher intrinsic growth (r) and lower carrying capacity (K), as well as lower replication fidelity. This supports a prebiotic scenario initiated by fast-replicating assemblies with a high molecular diversity, evolving into more faithful replicators with narrower molecular repertoires. PMID:24831416

  6. Cyclic dynamics in simulated plant populations.

    PubMed Central

    Bauer, Silke; Berger, Uta; Hildenbrandt, Hanno; Grimm, Volker

    2002-01-01

    Despite the general interest in nonlinear dynamics in animal populations, plant populations are supposed to show a stable equilibrium that is attributed to fundamental differences compared with animals. Some studies find more complex dynamics, but empirical studies usually are too short and most modelling studies ignore important spatial aspects of local competition and establishment. Therefore, we used a spatially explicit individual-based model of a hypothetical, non-clonal perennial to explore which mechanisms might generate complex dynamics, i.e. cycles. The model is based on the field-of-neighbourhood approach that describes local competition and establishment in a phenomenological manner. We found cyclic population dynamics for a wide spectrum of model variants, provided that mortality is determined by local competition and recruitment is virtually completely suppressed within the zone of influence of established plants. This destabilizing effect of local processes within plant populations might have wide-ranging implications for the understanding of plant community dynamics and coexistence. PMID:12495487

  7. Irruptive population dynamics in Yellowstone pronghorn.

    PubMed

    White, P J; Bruggeman, Jason E; Garrott, Robert A

    2007-09-01

    Irruptive population dynamics appear to be widespread in large herbivore populations, but there are few empirical examples from long time series with small measurement error and minimal harvests. We analyzed an 89-year time series of counts and known removals for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in Yellowstone National Park of the western United States during 1918-2006 using a suite of density-dependent, density-independent, and irruptive models to determine if the population exhibited irruptive dynamics. Information-theoretic model comparison techniques strongly supported irruptive population dynamics (Leopold model) and density dependence during 1918-1946, with the growth rate slowing after counts exceeded 600 animals. Concerns about sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) degradation led to removals of >1100 pronghorn during 1947-1966, and counts decreased from approximately 700 to 150. The best models for this period (Gompertz, Ricker) suggested that culls replaced intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms. Contrary to expectations, the population did not exhibit enhanced demographic vigor soon after the termination of the harvest program, with counts remaining between 100 and 190 animals during 1967 1981. However, the population irrupted (Caughley model with a one-year lag) to a peak abundance of approximately 600 pronghorn during 1982-1991, with a slowing in growth rate as counts exceeded 500. Numbers crashed to 235 pronghorn during 1992-1995, perhaps because important food resources (e.g., sagebrush) on the winter range were severely diminished by high densities of browsing elk, mule deer, and pronghorn. Pronghorn numbers remained relatively constant during 1996-2006, at a level (196-235) lower than peak abundance, but higher than numbers following the release from culling. The dynamics of this population supported the paradigm that irruption is a fundamental pattern of growth in many populations of large herbivores with high fecundity and delayed density-dependent effects

  8. Bayesian Modeling of the Effects of Extreme Flooding and the Grazer Community on Algal Biomass Dynamics in a Monsoonal Taiwan Stream.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Ming-Chih; Kuo, Mei-Hwa; Chang, Hao-Yen; Lin, Hsing-Juh

    2016-08-01

    The effects of grazing and climate change on primary production have been studied widely, but seldom with mechanistic models. We used a Bayesian model to examine the effects of extreme weather and the invertebrate grazer community on epilithic algal biomass dynamics over 10 years (from January 2004 to August 2013). Algal biomass and the invertebrate grazer community were monitored in the upstream drainage of the Dajia River in Taiwan, where extreme floods have been becoming more frequent. The biomass of epilithic algae changed, both seasonally and annually, and extreme flooding changed the growth and resistance to flow detachment of the algae. Invertebrate grazing pressure changes with the structure of the invertebrate grazer community, which, in turn, is affected by the flow regime. Invertebrate grazer community structure and extreme flooding both affected the dynamics of epilithic algae, but in different ways. Awareness of the interactions between algal communities and grazers/abiotic factors can help with the design of future studies and could facilitate the development of management programs for stream ecosystems. PMID:27273089

  9. Bayesian Modeling of the Effects of Extreme Flooding and the Grazer Community on Algal Biomass Dynamics in a Monsoonal Taiwan Stream.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Ming-Chih; Kuo, Mei-Hwa; Chang, Hao-Yen; Lin, Hsing-Juh

    2016-08-01

    The effects of grazing and climate change on primary production have been studied widely, but seldom with mechanistic models. We used a Bayesian model to examine the effects of extreme weather and the invertebrate grazer community on epilithic algal biomass dynamics over 10 years (from January 2004 to August 2013). Algal biomass and the invertebrate grazer community were monitored in the upstream drainage of the Dajia River in Taiwan, where extreme floods have been becoming more frequent. The biomass of epilithic algae changed, both seasonally and annually, and extreme flooding changed the growth and resistance to flow detachment of the algae. Invertebrate grazing pressure changes with the structure of the invertebrate grazer community, which, in turn, is affected by the flow regime. Invertebrate grazer community structure and extreme flooding both affected the dynamics of epilithic algae, but in different ways. Awareness of the interactions between algal communities and grazers/abiotic factors can help with the design of future studies and could facilitate the development of management programs for stream ecosystems.

  10. Sustainability of culture-driven population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ghirlanda, Stefano; Enquist, Magnus; Perc, Matjaz

    2010-05-01

    We consider models of the interactions between human population dynamics and cultural evolution, asking whether they predict sustainable or unsustainable patterns of growth. Phenomenological models predict either unsustainable population growth or stabilization in the near future. The latter prediction, however, is based on extrapolation of current demographic trends and does not take into account causal processes of demographic and cultural dynamics. Most existing causal models assume (or derive from simplified models of the economy) a positive feedback between cultural evolution and demographic growth, and predict unlimited growth in both culture and population. We augment these models taking into account that: (1) cultural transmission is not perfect, i.e., culture can be lost; (2) culture does not always promote population growth. We show that taking these factors into account can cause radically different model behavior, such as population extinction rather than stability, and extinction rather than growth. We conclude that all models agree that a population capable of maintaining a large amount of culture, including a powerful technology, runs a high risk of being unsustainable. We suggest that future work must address more explicitly both the dynamics of resource consumption and the cultural evolution of beliefs implicated in reproductive behavior (e.g., ideas about the preferred family size) and in resource use (e.g., environmentalist stances).

  11. Extinction rate fragility in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Khasin, M; Dykman, M I

    2009-08-01

    Population extinction is of central interest for population dynamics. It may occur from a large rare fluctuation. We find that, in contrast to related large-fluctuation effects like noise-induced interstate switching, quite generally extinction rates in multipopulation systems display fragility, where the height of the effective barrier to be overcome in the fluctuation depends on the system parameters nonanalytically. We show that one of the best-known models of epidemiology, the susceptible-infectious-susceptible model, is fragile to total population fluctuations.

  12. Dispersive models describing mosquitoes’ population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamashita, W. M. S.; Takahashi, L. T.; Chapiro, G.

    2016-08-01

    The global incidences of dengue and, more recently, zica virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. Understanding this dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. This work is based on the study of nonlinear mathematical models dealing with the life cycle of the dengue mosquito using partial differential equations. We investigate the existence of traveling wave solutions using semi-analytical method combining dynamical systems techniques and numerical integration. Obtained solutions are validated through numerical simulations using finite difference schemes.

  13. A physical-biological coupled model for algal dynamics in lakes.

    PubMed

    Franke, U; Hutter, K; Jöhnk, K

    1999-03-01

    A coupled model is presented for simulating physical and biological dynamics in fresh water lakes. The physical model rests upon the assumption that the turbulent kinetic energy in a water column of the lake is fully contained in a mixed layer of variable depth. Below this layer the mechanical energy content is assumed to vanish. Additionally, the horizontal currents are ignored. This one-dimensional two-layered model describes the internal conversion of the mechanical and thermal energy input from the atmosphere into an evolution of the mixed layer depth by entrainment and detrainment mechanisms. It is supposed to form the physical domain in which the simulation of the biological processes takes place. The biological model describes mathematically the typical properties of phyto- and zooplankton, their interactions and their response to the physical environment. This description then allows the study of the behaviour of Lagrangian clusters of virtual plankton that are subjected to such environments. The essence of the model is the dynamical simulation of an arbitrary number of nutrient limited phytoplankton species and one species of zooplankton. The members of the food web above and below affect the model only statically. The model is able to reproduce the typical progression of a predator-prey interaction between phyto- and zooplankton as well as the exploitative competition for nutrients between two phytoplankton species under grazing pressure of Daphnia. It suggests that the influence of the biological system on the physical system results in a weak increase of the surface temperature for coupled simulations, but a considerably higher seasonal thermocline in spring and a lower one in autumn.

  14. [Development and testing of theories of population dynamics]. First annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Murdoch, W.W.; Bence, J.R.; McCauley, E.; Nisbet, R.M.

    1990-03-15

    We report new analyses to test competing models of the Daphnia/algal interaction. Our model is good at predicting equilibrium algal densities, and if our new insights can account for stability in this system across a wide range of natural environments, this may contribute to understanding predator-prey dynamics in general.

  15. Sequence of the Gonium pectorale Mating Locus Reveals a Complex and Dynamic History of Changes in Volvocine Algal Mating Haplotypes

    PubMed Central

    Hamaji, Takashi; Mogi, Yuko; Ferris, Patrick J.; Mori, Toshiyuki; Miyagishima, Shinya; Kabeya, Yukihiro; Nishimura, Yoshiki; Toyoda, Atsushi; Noguchi, Hideki; Fujiyama, Asao; Olson, Bradley J. S. C.; Marriage, Tara N.; Nishii, Ichiro; Umen, James G.; Nozaki, Hisayoshi

    2016-01-01

    Sex-determining regions (SDRs) or mating-type (MT) loci in two sequenced volvocine algal species, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii and Volvox carteri, exhibit major differences in size, structure, gene content, and gametolog differentiation. Understanding the origin of these differences requires investigation of MT loci from related species. Here, we determined the sequences of the minus and plus MT haplotypes of the isogamous 16-celled volvocine alga, Gonium pectorale, which is more closely related to the multicellular V. carteri than to C. reinhardtii. Compared to C. reinhardtii MT, G. pectorale MT is moderately larger in size, and has a less complex structure, with only two major syntenic blocs of collinear gametologs. However, the gametolog content of G. pectorale MT has more overlap with that of V. carteri MT than with C. reinhardtii MT, while the allelic divergence between gametologs in G. pectorale is even lower than that in C. reinhardtii. Three key sex-related genes are conserved in G. pectorale MT: GpMID and GpMTD1 in MT–, and GpFUS1 in MT+. GpFUS1 protein exhibited specific localization at the plus-gametic mating structure, indicating a conserved function in fertilization. Our results suggest that the G. pectorale–V. carteri common ancestral MT experienced at least one major reformation after the split from C. reinhardtii, and that the V. carteri ancestral MT underwent a subsequent expansion and loss of recombination after the divergence from G. pectorale. These data begin to polarize important changes that occurred in volvocine MT loci, and highlight the potential for discontinuous and dynamic evolution in SDRs. PMID:26921294

  16. Sequence of the Gonium pectorale Mating Locus Reveals a Complex and Dynamic History of Changes in Volvocine Algal Mating Haplotypes.

    PubMed

    Hamaji, Takashi; Mogi, Yuko; Ferris, Patrick J; Mori, Toshiyuki; Miyagishima, Shinya; Kabeya, Yukihiro; Nishimura, Yoshiki; Toyoda, Atsushi; Noguchi, Hideki; Fujiyama, Asao; Olson, Bradley J S C; Marriage, Tara N; Nishii, Ichiro; Umen, James G; Nozaki, Hisayoshi

    2016-01-01

    Sex-determining regions (SDRs) or mating-type (MT) loci in two sequenced volvocine algal species, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii and Volvox carteri, exhibit major differences in size, structure, gene content, and gametolog differentiation. Understanding the origin of these differences requires investigation of MT loci from related species. Here, we determined the sequences of the minus and plus MT haplotypes of the isogamous 16-celled volvocine alga, Gonium pectorale, which is more closely related to the multicellular V. carteri than to C. reinhardtii Compared to C. reinhardtii MT, G. pectorale MT is moderately larger in size, and has a less complex structure, with only two major syntenic blocs of collinear gametologs. However, the gametolog content of G. pectorale MT has more overlap with that of V. carteri MT than with C. reinhardtii MT, while the allelic divergence between gametologs in G. pectorale is even lower than that in C. reinhardtii Three key sex-related genes are conserved in G. pectorale MT: GpMID and GpMTD1 in MT-, and GpFUS1 in MT+. GpFUS1 protein exhibited specific localization at the plus-gametic mating structure, indicating a conserved function in fertilization. Our results suggest that the G. pectorale-V. carteri common ancestral MT experienced at least one major reformation after the split from C. reinhardtii, and that the V. carteri ancestral MT underwent a subsequent expansion and loss of recombination after the divergence from G. pectorale These data begin to polarize important changes that occurred in volvocine MT loci, and highlight the potential for discontinuous and dynamic evolution in SDRs. PMID:26921294

  17. The color of mass culture: spectral characteristics of a shallow water column through shade-limited algal growth dynamics(1).

    PubMed

    Hewes, Christopher D

    2016-04-01

    It is envisioned that mass algal cultivation for commercial biofuels production will entail the use of large raceway pond systems, which typically have shade-limited photosynthetic growth within depths of 20-30 cm. The attenuation of light and spectral qualities of red, green, and blue wavelengths in a 20-cm water column as a function of Chl-a concentration during exponential and linear phases of growth dynamics for the marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana was examined under laboratory conditions. While photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) was in excess throughout the water column during the phase of exponential growth, PAR became rate limiting differently for red, green, and blue wavelengths during the phase of linear growth. The transition from exponential to linear growth occurred at 1-2 mg Chl-a · L-1, whereby a scalar ~5 μmol photons · m-2 · s-1 at 20-cm depth was found to occur as would be anticipated having the compensation point for where rates of photosynthesis and respiration are equal. During the phase of linear growth, red wavelengths became increasingly dominant at depth as Chl-a concentrations increased, being contrary to the optical conditions for those natural bodies of water that forced the evolution of phytoplankton photosynthesis. It is hypothesized this dramatic difference in water column optics between natural and synthetic environments could influence a variety of biological reactions, importantly non-photochemical quenching capacities, which could negatively impact crop yield.

  18. Stability, complexity and robustness in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Demongeot, J; Hazgui, H; Ben Amor, H; Waku, J

    2014-09-01

    The problem of stability in population dynamics concerns many domains of application in demography, biology, mechanics and mathematics. The problem is highly generic and independent of the population considered (human, animals, molecules,…). We give in this paper some examples of population dynamics concerning nucleic acids interacting through direct nucleic binding with small or cyclic RNAs acting on mRNAs or tRNAs as translation factors or through protein complexes expressed by genes and linked to DNA as transcription factors. The networks made of these interactions between nucleic acids (considered respectively as edges and nodes of their interaction graph) are complex, but exhibit simple emergent asymptotic behaviours, when time tends to infinity, called attractors. We show that the quantity called attractor entropy plays a crucial role in the study of the stability and robustness of such genetic networks. PMID:25107273

  19. Dynamical inference of hidden biological populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luchinsky, D. G.; Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Millonas, M.; McClintock, P. V. E.

    2008-10-01

    Population fluctuations in a predator-prey system are analyzed for the case where the number of prey could be determined, subject to measurement noise, but the number of predators was unknown. The problem of how to infer the unmeasured predator dynamics, as well as the model parameters, is addressed. Two solutions are suggested. In the first of these, measurement noise and the dynamical noise in the equation for predator population are neglected; the problem is reduced to a one-dimensional case, and a Bayesian dynamical inference algorithm is employed to reconstruct the model parameters. In the second solution a full-scale Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to infer both the unknown predator trajectory, and also the model parameters, using the one-dimensional solution as an initial guess.

  20. Dynamic control and quantification of bacterial population dynamics in droplets

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Shuqiang; Srimani, Jaydeep K.; Lee, Anna J.; Zhang, Ying; Lopatkin, Allison J.; Leong, Kam W.; You, Lingchong

    2015-01-01

    Culturing and measuring bacterial population dynamics are critical to develop insights into gene regulation or bacterial physiology. Traditional methods, based on bulk culture to obtain such quantification, have the limitations of higher cost/volume of reagents, non-amendable to small size of population and more laborious manipulation. To this end, droplet-based microfluidics represents a promising alternative that is cost-effective and high-throughput. However, difficulties in manipulating the droplet environment and monitoring encapsulated bacterial population for long-term experiments limit its utilization. To overcome these limitations, we used an electrode-free injection technology to modulate the chemical environment in droplets. This ability is critical for precise control of bacterial dynamics in droplets. Moreover, we developed a trapping device for long-term monitoring of population dynamics in individual droplets for at least 240 h. We demonstrated the utility of this new microfluidic system by quantifying population dynamics of natural and engineered bacteria. Our approach can further improve the analysis for systems and synthetic biology in terms of manipulability and high temporal resolution. PMID:26005763

  1. Dynamics of newly established elk populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W.

    2007-01-01

    The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

  2. Algal functional annotation tool

    SciTech Connect

    2012-07-12

    Abstract BACKGROUND: Progress in genome sequencing is proceeding at an exponential pace, and several new algal genomes are becoming available every year. One of the challenges facing the community is the association of protein sequences encoded in the genomes with biological function. While most genome assembly projects generate annotations for predicted protein sequences, they are usually limited and integrate functional terms from a limited number of databases. Another challenge is the use of annotations to interpret large lists of 'interesting' genes generated by genome-scale datasets. Previously, these gene lists had to be analyzed across several independent biological databases, often on a gene-by-gene basis. In contrast, several annotation databases, such as DAVID, integrate data from multiple functional databases and reveal underlying biological themes of large gene lists. While several such databases have been constructed for animals, none is currently available for the study of algae. Due to renewed interest in algae as potential sources of biofuels and the emergence of multiple algal genome sequences, a significant need has arisen for such a database to process the growing compendiums of algal genomic data. DESCRIPTION: The Algal Functional Annotation Tool is a web-based comprehensive analysis suite integrating annotation data from several pathway, ontology, and protein family databases. The current version provides annotation for the model alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, and in the future will include additional genomes. The site allows users to interpret large gene lists by identifying associated functional terms, and their enrichment. Additionally, expression data for several experimental conditions were compiled and analyzed to provide an expression-based enrichment search. A tool to search for functionally-related genes based on gene expression across these conditions is also provided. Other features include dynamic visualization of genes on KEGG

  3. Algal functional annotation tool

    2012-07-12

    Abstract BACKGROUND: Progress in genome sequencing is proceeding at an exponential pace, and several new algal genomes are becoming available every year. One of the challenges facing the community is the association of protein sequences encoded in the genomes with biological function. While most genome assembly projects generate annotations for predicted protein sequences, they are usually limited and integrate functional terms from a limited number of databases. Another challenge is the use of annotations tomore » interpret large lists of 'interesting' genes generated by genome-scale datasets. Previously, these gene lists had to be analyzed across several independent biological databases, often on a gene-by-gene basis. In contrast, several annotation databases, such as DAVID, integrate data from multiple functional databases and reveal underlying biological themes of large gene lists. While several such databases have been constructed for animals, none is currently available for the study of algae. Due to renewed interest in algae as potential sources of biofuels and the emergence of multiple algal genome sequences, a significant need has arisen for such a database to process the growing compendiums of algal genomic data. DESCRIPTION: The Algal Functional Annotation Tool is a web-based comprehensive analysis suite integrating annotation data from several pathway, ontology, and protein family databases. The current version provides annotation for the model alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, and in the future will include additional genomes. The site allows users to interpret large gene lists by identifying associated functional terms, and their enrichment. Additionally, expression data for several experimental conditions were compiled and analyzed to provide an expression-based enrichment search. A tool to search for functionally-related genes based on gene expression across these conditions is also provided. Other features include dynamic visualization of genes on

  4. Population dynamics in non-homogeneous environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alards, Kim M. J.; Tesser, Francesca; Toschi, Federico

    2014-11-01

    For organisms living in aquatic ecosystems the presence of fluid transport can have a strong influence on the dynamics of populations and on evolution of species. In particular, displacements due to self-propulsion, summed up with turbulent dispersion at larger scales, strongly influence the local densities and thus population and genetic dynamics. Real marine environments are furthermore characterized by a high degree of non-homogeneities. In the case of population fronts propagating in ``fast'' turbulence, with respect to the population duplication time, the flow effect can be studied by replacing the microscopic diffusivity with an effective turbulent diffusivity. In the opposite case of ``slow'' turbulence the advection by the flow has to be considered locally. Here we employ numerical simulations to study the influence of non-homogeneities in the diffusion coefficient of reacting individuals of different species expanding in a 2 dimensional space. Moreover, to explore the influence of advection, we consider a population expanding in the presence of simple velocity fields like cellular flows. The output is analyzed in terms of front roughness, front shape, propagation speed and, concerning the genetics, by means of heterozygosity and local and global extinction probabilities.

  5. Coevolutionary dynamics in large, but finite populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traulsen, Arne; Claussen, Jens Christian; Hauert, Christoph

    2006-07-01

    Coevolving and competing species or game-theoretic strategies exhibit rich and complex dynamics for which a general theoretical framework based on finite populations is still lacking. Recently, an explicit mean-field description in the form of a Fokker-Planck equation was derived for frequency-dependent selection with two strategies in finite populations based on microscopic processes [A. Traulsen, J. C. Claussen, and C. Hauert, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 238701 (2005)]. Here we generalize this approach in a twofold way: First, we extend the framework to an arbitrary number of strategies and second, we allow for mutations in the evolutionary process. The deterministic limit of infinite population size of the frequency-dependent Moran process yields the adjusted replicator-mutator equation, which describes the combined effect of selection and mutation. For finite populations, we provide an extension taking random drift into account. In the limit of neutral selection, i.e., whenever the process is determined by random drift and mutations, the stationary strategy distribution is derived. This distribution forms the background for the coevolutionary process. In particular, a critical mutation rate uc is obtained separating two scenarios: above uc the population predominantly consists of a mixture of strategies whereas below uc the population tends to be in homogeneous states. For one of the fundamental problems in evolutionary biology, the evolution of cooperation under Darwinian selection, we demonstrate that the analytical framework provides excellent approximations to individual based simulations even for rather small population sizes. This approach complements simulation results and provides a deeper, systematic understanding of coevolutionary dynamics.

  6. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  7. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  8. Plant Pathogen Population Dynamics in Potato Fields

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, G. D.; Stevenson, W. R.; MacGuidwin, A. E.; Kelling, K. A.; Binning, L. K.; Zhu, J.

    2002-01-01

    Modern technologies incorporating Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Global Positioning Systems (GPS), remote sensing, and geostatistics provide unique opportunities to advance ecological understanding of pests across a landscape. Increased knowledge of the population dynamics of plant pathogens will promote management strategies, such as site-specific management, and cultural practices minimizing the introduction and impact of plant pathogens. The population dynamics of Alternaria solani, Verticillium dahliae, and Pratylenchus penetrans were investigated in commercial potato fields. A 0.5-ha diamond grid-sampling scheme was georeferenced, and all disease ratings and nematode samples were taken at these grid points. Percent disease severity was rated weekly, and P. penetrans densities were quantified 4 weeks after potato emergence. Spatial statistics and interpolation methods were used to identify the spatial distribution and population dynamics of each pathogen. Interpolated maps and aerial imagery identified A. solani intra-season progression across the fields as the potato crop matured. Late-season nitrogen application reduced A. solani severity. The spatial distributions of V. dahliae and P. penetrans were spatially correlated. PMID:19265932

  9. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  10. Effect of Migration on Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magdoń, Maria S.

    Computer studies of evolution in migrating population are presented. The model is based on the Penna model. Migration for better living conditions does influence population dynamics in different locations. Examples of different scenarios of preferences to live in bigger or smaller populations (or environmental capacity, or living space available) are discussed. In the limiting case of low migration intensity, each location evolves independently according to its local rules and conditions, as expected. With increasing migration, the population distribution between locations changes, including the critical behavior of extinction of population for some locations for a specific set of the rules. Then, the deserted location may become populated again if the migration is still increasing as result of a pressure to move. The present version is devoted to the migration controlled exclusively by environmental factors, yet the model is primarily designed to describe both inherited mutations on environmental factors and can be used to study the effect of different races mixing, or recovery of environmental capacity of the fields when chasing 2 flocks of geese in a cyclic manner across 3 fields.

  11. Population clocks: motor timing with neural dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Buonomano, Dean V.; Laje, Rodrigo

    2010-01-01

    An understanding of sensory and motor processing will require elucidation of the mechanisms by which the brain tells time. Open questions relate to whether timing relies on dedicated or intrinsic mechanisms and whether distinct mechanisms underlie timing across scales and modalities. Although experimental and theoretical studies support the notion that neural circuits are intrinsically capable of sensory timing on short scales, few general models of motor timing have been proposed. For one class of models, population clocks, it is proposed that time is encoded in the time-varying patterns of activity of a population of neurons. We argue that population clocks emerge from the internal dynamics of recurrently connected networks, are biologically realistic and account for many aspects of motor timing. PMID:20889368

  12. Algal biofuels.

    PubMed

    Razeghifard, Reza

    2013-11-01

    The world is facing energy crisis and environmental issues due to the depletion of fossil fuels and increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Growing microalgae can contribute to practical solutions for these global problems because they can harvest solar energy and capture CO2 by converting it into biofuel using photosynthesis. Microalgae are robust organisms capable of rapid growth under a variety of conditions including in open ponds or closed photobioreactors. Their reduced biomass compounds can be used as the feedstock for mass production of a variety of biofuels. As another advantage, their ability to accumulate or secrete biofuels can be controlled by changing their growth conditions or metabolic engineering. This review is aimed to highlight different forms of biofuels produced by microalgae and the approaches taken to improve their biofuel productivity. The costs for industrial-scale production of algal biofuels in open ponds or closed photobioreactors are analyzed. Different strategies for photoproduction of hydrogen by the hydrogenase enzyme of green algae are discussed. Algae are also good sources of biodiesel since some species can make large quantities of lipids as their biomass. The lipid contents for some of the best oil-producing strains of algae in optimized growth conditions are reviewed. The potential of microalgae for producing petroleum related chemicals or ready-make fuels such as bioethanol, triterpenic hydrocarbons, isobutyraldehyde, isobutanol, and isoprene from their biomass are also presented.

  13. Computer Assisted Instruction of Population Dynamics: A New Approach to Population Education. Report No. T-19.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klaff, Vivian; Handler, Paul

    Available on the University of Illinois PLATO IV Computer system, the Population Dynamic Group computer-aided instruction program for teaching population dynamics is described and explained. The computer-generated visual graphics enable fast and intuitive understanding of the dynamics of population and of the concepts and data of population. The…

  14. Population Code Dynamics in Categorical Perception

    PubMed Central

    Tajima, Chihiro I.; Tajima, Satohiro; Koida, Kowa; Komatsu, Hidehiko; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Suzuki, Hideyuki

    2016-01-01

    Categorical perception is a ubiquitous function in sensory information processing, and is reported to have important influences on the recognition of presented and/or memorized stimuli. However, such complex interactions among categorical perception and other aspects of sensory processing have not been explained well in a unified manner. Here, we propose a recurrent neural network model to process categorical information of stimuli, which approximately realizes a hierarchical Bayesian estimation on stimuli. The model accounts for a wide variety of neurophysiological and cognitive phenomena in a consistent framework. In particular, the reported complexity of categorical effects, including (i) task-dependent modulation of neural response, (ii) clustering of neural population representation, (iii) temporal evolution of perceptual color memory, and (iv) a non-uniform discrimination threshold, are explained as different aspects of a single model. Moreover, we directly examine key model behaviors in the monkey visual cortex by analyzing neural population dynamics during categorization and discrimination of color stimuli. We find that the categorical task causes temporally-evolving biases in the neuronal population representations toward the focal colors, which supports the proposed model. These results suggest that categorical perception can be achieved by recurrent neural dynamics that approximates optimal probabilistic inference in the changing environment. PMID:26935275

  15. Assessing the dynamics of wild populations

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Lotka's equations summarizing population dynamics can be approximated by functional models of the survivorship and reproductive curves, incorporating three stages of survival and reproduction, respectively. An abbreviated form uses a single reproductive parameter and two survival values. Survivorship and reproductive curves were fitted to data on northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), domestic and feral sheep, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), free-ranging horses, and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). Data for 10 species suggest a useful relationship between senescence parameters. A bias due to senescence may lead to serious underestimation of survival rates. Observed annual rates of increase of 18-20% for feral horses, 16% for southern fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), and 60% for white-tailed deer are compatible with observed population parameters. 43 references, 11 figures, 3 tables.

  16. Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

    2002-03-01

    We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

  17. (Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Grenfell, B; Harwood, J

    1997-10-01

    The metapopulation concept provides a very powerful tool for analysing the persistence of spatially-disaggregated populations, in terms of a balance between local extinction and colonization. Exactly the same approach has been developed by epidemiologists, in order to understand patterns of diseases persistence. There is great scope for further cross-fertilization between areas. Recent work on the spatitemporal dynamics of measles illustrates that the large datasets and rich modelling literature on many infectious diseases offer great potential for developing and testing ideas about metapopulations.

  18. A population dynamics approach to biological aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Almeida, R. M. C.

    A dynamical model for aging in biological population is discussed where asexual reproduction is considered. The maximum life span is inherited from parent to offspring with some random mutations described by a transition matrix, and the fertile period begins at a defined age R. The intra species competition is modeled through a Verhulst-like factor. Discrete time evolution equations are iterated and the transient and asymptotic solutions are obtained. When only bad mutations are taken into account, the stationary solutions are obtained analytically. The results are applied to the Penna model.

  19. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    PubMed

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

  20. Algal viruses hitchhiking on zooplankton across phytoplankton blooms

    PubMed Central

    Frada, Miguel J; Vardi, Assaf

    2015-01-01

    Viruses infecting marine phytoplankton are key biogeochemical ‘engines’ of the oceans, regulating the dynamics of algal populations and the fate of their extensive blooms. In addition they are important ecological and evolutionary drivers of microbial diversification. Yet, little is known about mechanisms influencing viral dispersal in aquatic systems, enabling the rapid infection and demise of vast phytoplankton blooms. In a recent study we showed that migrating zooplankton as copepods that graze on marine phytoplankton can act as transmission vectors for algal viruses. We demonstrated that these grazers can concentrate virions through topical adsorption and by ingesting infected cells and then releasing back to the medium, via detachment or defecation, high viral titers that readily infect host populations. We proposed that this zooplankton-driven process can potentially boost viral dispersal over wide oceanic scales and enhance bloom termination. Here, we highlight key results and further discuss the ecological and evolutionary consequences of our findings. PMID:26479489

  1. Algal viruses hitchhiking on zooplankton across phytoplankton blooms.

    PubMed

    Frada, Miguel J; Vardi, Assaf

    2015-01-01

    Viruses infecting marine phytoplankton are key biogeochemical 'engines' of the oceans, regulating the dynamics of algal populations and the fate of their extensive blooms. In addition they are important ecological and evolutionary drivers of microbial diversification. Yet, little is known about mechanisms influencing viral dispersal in aquatic systems, enabling the rapid infection and demise of vast phytoplankton blooms. In a recent study we showed that migrating zooplankton as copepods that graze on marine phytoplankton can act as transmission vectors for algal viruses. We demonstrated that these grazers can concentrate virions through topical adsorption and by ingesting infected cells and then releasing back to the medium, via detachment or defecation, high viral titers that readily infect host populations. We proposed that this zooplankton-driven process can potentially boost viral dispersal over wide oceanic scales and enhance bloom termination. Here, we highlight key results and further discuss the ecological and evolutionary consequences of our findings.

  2. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  3. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  4. Demographic dynamics and kinship in anthropological populations

    PubMed Central

    Hammel, E. A.

    2005-01-01

    Changes in fertility and mortality affect the size of surviving sibling sets and thus numbers of surviving kin. Because the genealogical generations specifying kinship relations are not temporal cohorts and most plausible demographic changes in anthropological populations are period shocks, the effect of such shocks on kin counts are complex. Shocks increasing fertility or decreasing mortality produce larger numbers of kin per ego and decrease the inequality of the distribution of kin and vice versa. Effects are more diffuse at more distant collateral ranges. Effects are stronger the more intense the shock and the longer its duration. Kinship distributions return to their initial state after the shock and as the original age structure of the population is ergodically reattained. Alternating shocks produce more complex patterns. Implications of these outcomes are that opportunities for political networking and consolidation by means of kinship are altered by demographic instabilities, as are the dynamics of kin selection. This analysis is limited for simplicity to unilineal agnatic reckoning of kin. PMID:15677714

  5. When Should Harvest Evolution Matter to Population Dynamics?

    PubMed

    Nusslé, Sébastien; Hendry, Andrew P; Carlson, Stephanie M

    2016-07-01

    The potential for evolution to influence fishery sustainability remains a controversial topic. We highlight new modeling research from Dunlop et al. that explores when and how fisheries-induced evolution matters for population dynamics, while also emphasizing transient dynamics in population growth and life history-dependent responses that influence population stability and resiliency. PMID:27095380

  6. Baseline nutrient dynamics in shallow well mixed coastal lagoon with seasonal harmful algal blooms and hypoxia formation.

    PubMed

    Turner, Evan L; Paudel, Bhanu; Montagna, Paul A

    2015-07-15

    Weekly inorganic nutrient and chlorophyll-a concentrations were measured to establish baseline conditions in Corpus Christi Bay, Texas during seasonal hypoxia and harmful algal bloom (HAB) formation. Two fixed stations along the southern shoreline were sampled weekly for a continuous year at the same time each day. Weekly shoreline observations were found to be statistically similar to quarterly observations in the bay center, but with a greater power to detect seasonal trends. Dissolved Oxygen (DO)<4 mg/L was measured in June, 2012 along the southern shoreline of Corpus Christi Bay, which places lower DO conditions west of previous estimates. During a bay-wide HAB event in November of 2011 no changes were observed in any of the nutrient or chlorophyll-a observations. This study documents a baseline of nutrients and chlorophyll-a in Corpus Christi Bay during a dry (average salinity>36 PSU) year.

  7. Environmental colour affects aspects of single-species population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Petchey, O L

    2000-04-22

    Single-species populations of ciliates (Colpidium and Paramecium) experienced constant temperature or white or reddened temperature fluctuations in aquatic microcosms in order to test three hypotheses about how environmental colour influences population dynamics. (i) Models predict that the colour of population dynamics is tinged by the colour of the environmental variability. However, environmental colour had no effect on the colour of population dynamics. All population dynamics in this experiment were reddened, regardless of environmental colour. (ii) Models predict that populations will track reddened environmental variability more closely than white environmental variability and that populations with a higher intrinsic growth rate (r) will track environmental variability more closely than populations with a low r. The experimental populations behaved as predicted. (iii) Models predict that population variability is determined by interaction between r and the environmental variability. The experimental populations behaved as predicted. These results show that (i) reddened population dynamics may need no special explanation, such as reddened environments, spatial subdivision or interspecific interactions, and (ii) and (iii) that population dynamics are sensitive to environmental colour, in agreement with population models. Correct specification of the colour of the environmental variability in models is required for accurate predictions. Further work is needed to study the effects of environmental colour on communities and ecosystems.

  8. Genetic diversity of Ulva prolifera population in Qingdao coastal water during the green algal blooms revealed by microsatellite.

    PubMed

    Li, Yue; Huang, Hong-Jia; Li, Hongye; Liu, Jiesheng; Yang, Weidong

    2016-10-15

    Green tides have occurred in Qingdao coast in China for seven consecutive years from 2007 to 2013. To provide information on the genetic structure of these blooms, 210 free-floating green algae samples isolated from the green tide in Qingdao coast on June 19, 2013 were identified based on the ITS, rbcL and 5S sequence, and genetic diversity was investigated by microsatellite markers. According to ITS, rbcL and 5S sequence, all the 210 samples belonged to Ulva prolifera. Nei's genetic diversity and Shannon index estimated using eight microsatellite markers indicated that the genetic diversity of U. prolifera population within Qingdao's green bloom in 2013 was low. Taking into account previous reports about life history and physiology of U. prolifera, we proposed that the limited origin area of the free-floating biomass and asexual reproduction of U. prolifera might be responsible for the lower diversity of free floating U. prolifera. PMID:27412412

  9. Genetic diversity of Ulva prolifera population in Qingdao coastal water during the green algal blooms revealed by microsatellite.

    PubMed

    Li, Yue; Huang, Hong-Jia; Li, Hongye; Liu, Jiesheng; Yang, Weidong

    2016-10-15

    Green tides have occurred in Qingdao coast in China for seven consecutive years from 2007 to 2013. To provide information on the genetic structure of these blooms, 210 free-floating green algae samples isolated from the green tide in Qingdao coast on June 19, 2013 were identified based on the ITS, rbcL and 5S sequence, and genetic diversity was investigated by microsatellite markers. According to ITS, rbcL and 5S sequence, all the 210 samples belonged to Ulva prolifera. Nei's genetic diversity and Shannon index estimated using eight microsatellite markers indicated that the genetic diversity of U. prolifera population within Qingdao's green bloom in 2013 was low. Taking into account previous reports about life history and physiology of U. prolifera, we proposed that the limited origin area of the free-floating biomass and asexual reproduction of U. prolifera might be responsible for the lower diversity of free floating U. prolifera.

  10. Occupation Dynamics and Impacts of Damselfish Territoriality on Recovering Populations of the Threatened Staghorn Coral, Acropora cervicornis

    PubMed Central

    Schopmeyer, Stephanie A.; Lirman, Diego

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale coral reef restoration is needed to help recover structure and function of degraded coral reef ecosystems and mitigate continued coral declines. In situ coral propagation and reef restoration efforts have scaled up significantly in past decades, particularly for the threatened Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, but little is known about the role that native competitors and predators, such as farming damselfishes, have on the success of restoration. Steep declines in A. cervicornis abundance may have concentrated the negative impacts of damselfish algal farming on a much lower number of coral prey/colonies, thus creating a significant threat to the persistence and recovery of depleted coral populations. This is the first study to document the prevalence of resident damselfishes and negative effects of algal lawns on A. cervicornis along the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). Impacts of damselfish lawns on A. cervicornis colonies were more prevalent (21.6% of colonies) than those of other sources of mortality (i.e., disease (1.6%), algal/sponge overgrowth (5.6%), and corallivore predation (7.9%)), and damselfish activities caused the highest levels of tissue mortality (34.6%) among all coral stressors evaluated. The probability of damselfish occupation increased as coral colony size and complexity increased and coral growth rates were significantly lower in colonies with damselfish lawns (15.4 vs. 29.6 cm per year). Reduced growth and mortality of existing A. cervicornis populations may have a significant effect on population dynamics by potentially reducing important genetic diversity and the reproductive potential of depleted populations. On a positive note, however, the presence of resident damselfishes decreased predation by other corallivores, such as Coralliophila and Hermodice, and may offset some negative impacts caused by algal farming. While most negative impacts of damselfishes identified in this study affected large individual colonies and

  11. Occupation Dynamics and Impacts of Damselfish Territoriality on Recovering Populations of the Threatened Staghorn Coral, Acropora cervicornis.

    PubMed

    Schopmeyer, Stephanie A; Lirman, Diego

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale coral reef restoration is needed to help recover structure and function of degraded coral reef ecosystems and mitigate continued coral declines. In situ coral propagation and reef restoration efforts have scaled up significantly in past decades, particularly for the threatened Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, but little is known about the role that native competitors and predators, such as farming damselfishes, have on the success of restoration. Steep declines in A. cervicornis abundance may have concentrated the negative impacts of damselfish algal farming on a much lower number of coral prey/colonies, thus creating a significant threat to the persistence and recovery of depleted coral populations. This is the first study to document the prevalence of resident damselfishes and negative effects of algal lawns on A. cervicornis along the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). Impacts of damselfish lawns on A. cervicornis colonies were more prevalent (21.6% of colonies) than those of other sources of mortality (i.e., disease (1.6%), algal/sponge overgrowth (5.6%), and corallivore predation (7.9%)), and damselfish activities caused the highest levels of tissue mortality (34.6%) among all coral stressors evaluated. The probability of damselfish occupation increased as coral colony size and complexity increased and coral growth rates were significantly lower in colonies with damselfish lawns (15.4 vs. 29.6 cm per year). Reduced growth and mortality of existing A. cervicornis populations may have a significant effect on population dynamics by potentially reducing important genetic diversity and the reproductive potential of depleted populations. On a positive note, however, the presence of resident damselfishes decreased predation by other corallivores, such as Coralliophila and Hermodice, and may offset some negative impacts caused by algal farming. While most negative impacts of damselfishes identified in this study affected large individual colonies and

  12. Occupation Dynamics and Impacts of Damselfish Territoriality on Recovering Populations of the Threatened Staghorn Coral, Acropora cervicornis.

    PubMed

    Schopmeyer, Stephanie A; Lirman, Diego

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale coral reef restoration is needed to help recover structure and function of degraded coral reef ecosystems and mitigate continued coral declines. In situ coral propagation and reef restoration efforts have scaled up significantly in past decades, particularly for the threatened Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, but little is known about the role that native competitors and predators, such as farming damselfishes, have on the success of restoration. Steep declines in A. cervicornis abundance may have concentrated the negative impacts of damselfish algal farming on a much lower number of coral prey/colonies, thus creating a significant threat to the persistence and recovery of depleted coral populations. This is the first study to document the prevalence of resident damselfishes and negative effects of algal lawns on A. cervicornis along the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). Impacts of damselfish lawns on A. cervicornis colonies were more prevalent (21.6% of colonies) than those of other sources of mortality (i.e., disease (1.6%), algal/sponge overgrowth (5.6%), and corallivore predation (7.9%)), and damselfish activities caused the highest levels of tissue mortality (34.6%) among all coral stressors evaluated. The probability of damselfish occupation increased as coral colony size and complexity increased and coral growth rates were significantly lower in colonies with damselfish lawns (15.4 vs. 29.6 cm per year). Reduced growth and mortality of existing A. cervicornis populations may have a significant effect on population dynamics by potentially reducing important genetic diversity and the reproductive potential of depleted populations. On a positive note, however, the presence of resident damselfishes decreased predation by other corallivores, such as Coralliophila and Hermodice, and may offset some negative impacts caused by algal farming. While most negative impacts of damselfishes identified in this study affected large individual colonies and

  13. Algal functional annotation tool

    SciTech Connect

    Lopez, D.; Casero, D.; Cokus, S. J.; Merchant, S. S.; Pellegrini, M.

    2012-07-01

    The Algal Functional Annotation Tool is a web-based comprehensive analysis suite integrating annotation data from several pathway, ontology, and protein family databases. The current version provides annotation for the model alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, and in the future will include additional genomes. The site allows users to interpret large gene lists by identifying associated functional terms, and their enrichment. Additionally, expression data for several experimental conditions were compiled and analyzed to provide an expression-based enrichment search. A tool to search for functionally-related genes based on gene expression across these conditions is also provided. Other features include dynamic visualization of genes on KEGG pathway maps and batch gene identifier conversion.

  14. Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

    PubMed

    Darling, Aaron E; Miklós, István; Ragan, Mark A

    2008-01-01

    characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes. PMID:18650965

  15. Dynamics of Genome Rearrangement in Bacterial Populations

    PubMed Central

    Darling, Aaron E.; Miklós, István; Ragan, Mark A.

    2008-01-01

    first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes. PMID:18650965

  16. Uncovering the Complex Transcriptome Response of Mytilus chilensis against Saxitoxin: Implications of Harmful Algal Blooms on Mussel Populations

    PubMed Central

    Detree, Camille; Núñez-Acuña, Gustavo; Roberts, Steven; Gallardo-Escárate, Cristian

    2016-01-01

    Saxitoxin (STX), a principal phycotoxin contributing to paralytic shellfish poisoning, is largely produced by marine microalgae of the genus Alexandrium. This toxin affects a wide range of species, inducing massive deaths in fish and other marine species. However, marine bivalves can resist and accumulate paralytic shellfish poisons. Despite numerous studies on the impact of STX in marine bivalves, knowledge regarding STX recognition at molecular level by benthic species remains scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify novel genes that interact with STX in the Chilean mussel Mytilus chilensis. For this, RNA-seq and RT-qPCR approaches were used to evaluate the transcriptomic response of M. chilensis to a purified STX as well as in vivo Alexandrium catenella exposure. Approximately 800 million reads were assembled, generating 138,883 contigs that were blasted against the UniProt Mollusca database. Pattern Recognition Receptors (PRRs) involved in mussel immunity, such as Toll-like receptors, tumor necrosis factor receptors, and scavenger-like receptors were found to be strongly upregulated at 8 and 16 h post-STX injection. These results suggest an involvement of PRRs in the response to STX, as well as identifying potential, novel STX-interacting receptors in this Chilean mussel. This study is the first transcriptomic overview of the STX-response in the edible species M. chilensis. However, the most significant contribution of this work is the identification of immune receptors and pathways potentially involved in the recognition and defense against STX’s toxicity and its impact of harmful algae blooms on wild and cultivated mussel populations. PMID:27764234

  17. Ecological risk assessment of herbicides in Japan: Integrating spatiotemporal variation in exposure and effects using a multimedia model and algal density dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, Takehiko I; Imaizumi, Yoshitaka; Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Tatarazako, Norihisa; Suzuki, Noriyuki

    2016-01-01

    Application of herbicides to paddy fields in Japan has strong seasonality, and their environmental concentrations exhibit clear spatiotemporal variation. The authors developed an approach that combines a multimedia environmental exposure model (Grid-Catchment Integrated Modeling System) and density dynamics models for algae. This approach enabled assessment of ecological risk when the exposure concentration shows spatiotemporal variation. First, risk maps of 5 herbicides (pretilachlor, butachlor, simetryn, mefenacet, and esprocarb) were created from the spatial predictions of environmental concentrations and 50% inhibitory concentrations of the herbicides. Simulations of algal density dynamics at high-risk sites were then conducted by incorporating the predicted temporal dynamics of the environmental concentration of each herbicide at the sites. The results suggested that the risk of pretilachlor was clearly the highest of the 5 herbicides, in terms of both the spatial distributions and the temporal durations. The present study highlights the importance of integrating exposure models and effect models to clarify spatial and temporal risk and to develop management plans for chemical exposure that shows high spatiotemporal variation. PMID:26183805

  18. Ecological risk assessment of herbicides in Japan: Integrating spatiotemporal variation in exposure and effects using a multimedia model and algal density dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, Takehiko I; Imaizumi, Yoshitaka; Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Tatarazako, Norihisa; Suzuki, Noriyuki

    2016-01-01

    Application of herbicides to paddy fields in Japan has strong seasonality, and their environmental concentrations exhibit clear spatiotemporal variation. The authors developed an approach that combines a multimedia environmental exposure model (Grid-Catchment Integrated Modeling System) and density dynamics models for algae. This approach enabled assessment of ecological risk when the exposure concentration shows spatiotemporal variation. First, risk maps of 5 herbicides (pretilachlor, butachlor, simetryn, mefenacet, and esprocarb) were created from the spatial predictions of environmental concentrations and 50% inhibitory concentrations of the herbicides. Simulations of algal density dynamics at high-risk sites were then conducted by incorporating the predicted temporal dynamics of the environmental concentration of each herbicide at the sites. The results suggested that the risk of pretilachlor was clearly the highest of the 5 herbicides, in terms of both the spatial distributions and the temporal durations. The present study highlights the importance of integrating exposure models and effect models to clarify spatial and temporal risk and to develop management plans for chemical exposure that shows high spatiotemporal variation.

  19. Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knight, Richard R.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Data on the population of grizzly bears in the environs of Yellowstone National Park suggest that the population has not recovered from the reductions following closure of garbage dumps in 1970 and 1971, and may continue to decline. A computer simulation model indicates that the risk of extirpation over the next 30 yr is small, if the present population parameters continue to prevail. A review and further analysis of the available data brings out the importance of enhancing adult female survival if the population is to recover, and assesses various research needs. In particular, a reliable index of population trend is needed to augment available data on the population.

  20. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline.

  1. Consequences of parental care on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira, S. Moss

    1999-12-01

    We review the results obtained using the Penna model for biological ageing (T.J.P. Penna, J. Stat. Phys. 78 (1995) 1629) when different strategies of parental care are introduced into evolving populations. These results concern to: longevity of semelparous populations; self-organization of female menopause; the spatial distribution of the populations and finally, sexual fidelity.

  2. Experimental evidence of antiphase population dynamics in lasers

    SciTech Connect

    Cabrera, Eduardo; Calderon, Oscar G.; Guerra, J.M.

    2005-10-15

    We report a direct experimental observation of antiphase oscillations in population dynamics in lasers. We show that these population oscillations are intrinsically related to the well-known antiphase polarization dynamics, i.e., the antiphase oscillations of two orthogonal polarization laser field states. We have used a class B Nd:YAG (yttrium aluminum garnet) laser.

  3. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  4. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    PubMed

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems. PMID:26382443

  5. Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Erik A.; Kiesling, Richard L.; Galloway, Joel M.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2014-01-01

    Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the

  6. Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears

    SciTech Connect

    Knight, R.R.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-04-01

    Data on the population of grizzly bears in the environs of Yellowstone National Park suggest that the population has not recovered from the reductions following closure of garbage dumps in 1970 and 1971, and may continue to decline. A computer simulation model indicates that the risk of extirpation over the next 30 yr is small, if the present population parameters continue to prevail. A review an further analysis of the available data brings out the importance of enhancing adult female survival if the population is to recover, and assesses various research needs. In particular, a reliable index of population trend is needed to augment available data on the population. 12 references, 9 figures, 6 tables.

  7. [The effect of the new technological revolution on population dynamics].

    PubMed

    Wu, K

    1985-01-29

    The impact of modernization on population dynamics in China is examined. The author notes that the industrialization process involves the concentration of the population in urban areas and the mechanization of agriculture. The need to redistribute the urban population from major urban areas to smaller towns is noted.

  8. Introducing Dynamic Analysis Using Malthus's Principle of Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pingle, Mark

    2003-01-01

    Declares the use of dynamic models is increasing in macroeconomics. Explains how to introduce dynamic models to students whose technical skills are modest or varied. Chooses Malthus's Principle of Population as a natural context for introducing dynamic analysis because it provides a method for reviewing the mathematical tools and theoretical…

  9. Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ranta, E; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Laakso, J

    2000-09-22

    Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view. We followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag -1) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This finding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated by the external noise.

  10. Local extinction synchronizes population dynamics in spatial networks.

    PubMed

    Matter, Stephen F; Roland, Jens

    2010-03-01

    Spatial population theory predicts that synchrony in the dynamics of local populations should decrease as dispersal among populations decreases. Thus, it would be expected that the extinction of local populations and the attendant loss of immigrants to surrounding populations would reduce synchrony. We tested this hypothesis through a large-scale experiment, simulation of the experimental system and general models. Experimental removal of two adjacent subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus within a network consisting of 15 other local populations resulted in a decrease in immigration to surrounding populations that was proportional to their connectivity to the removal populations. These populations also showed a significant increase in synchrony during population removal. The spatial extent of the synchrony showed good agreement with the predicted loss of immigrants owing to the removals. Simulation of the Parnassius system showed a similar short-term result and also indicated that permanent loss of populations produces structural changes increasing synchrony. General models indicate that an increase in synchrony following extinction occurs when populations undergoing extinction have different carrying capacities than surrounding populations. The result is not owing to biased migration per se, but rather is because of the number of immigrants relative to the carrying capacity. Synchrony following extinction should be most common for patchy populations, but can occur in any situation where carrying capacities differ. Overall, our results indicate that local extinction can create a positive feedback for extinction risk, increasing the probability of extinction for population networks by synchronizing their dynamics.

  11. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  12. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.

    PubMed

    Deville, Pierre; Linard, Catherine; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R; Gaughan, Andrea E; Blondel, Vincent D; Tatem, Andrew J

    2014-11-11

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography.

  13. Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

    2013-03-21

    We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity.

  14. Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1978-01-01

    The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

  15. Simulation model of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics in northern San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cloern, J.E.; Cheng, R.T.

    1981-01-01

    A pseudo-two-dimensional model is developed to simulate population dynamics of one dominant phytoplankton species (Skeletonema costatum) in northern San Francisco Bay. The model is formulated around a conceptualization of this estuary as two distinct but coupled subsystems-a deep (10-20 m) central channel and lateral areas with shallow (<2 m) water and slow circulation. Algal growth rates are governed by solar irradiation, temperature and salinity, while population losses are assumed to result from grazing bycalanoid copepods. Consequences of estuarine gravitational circulation are approximated simply by reducing convective-dispersive transport in that section of the channel (null zone) where residual bottom currents are near zero, and lateral mixing is treated as a bulkexchange process between the channel and the shoals. Model output is consistent with the hypothesis that, because planktonic algae are light-limited, shallow areas are the sites of active population growth. Seasonal variation in the location of the null zone (a response to variable river discharge) is responsible for maintaining the spring bloom of neritic diatoms in the seaward reaches of the estuary (San Pablo Bay) and the summer bloom upstream (Suisun Bay). Model output suggests that these spring and summer blooms result from the same general process-establishment of populations over the shoals, where growth rates are rapid, coupled with reduced particulate transport due to estuarine gravitational circulation. It also suggests, however, that the relative importance of physical and biological processes to phytoplankton dynamics is different in San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Finally, the model has helped us determine those processes having sufficient importance to merit further refinement in the next generation of models, and it has given new direction to field studies. ?? 1981 Academic Press Inc. (London) Ltd.

  16. Dynamics of nitrogen, phosphorus, algal biomass, and suspended solids in an artificial lentic ecosystem and significant implications of regional hydrology on trophic status.

    PubMed

    An, Kwang-Guk; Park, Seok Soon; Ahn, Kyu-Hong; Urchin, Christopher G

    2003-01-01

    Chemical and biological parameters were analyzed to examine how regional hydrological fluctuations influence water quality of a artificial lentic ecosystem over a two-year period The intensity of seasonal monsoon rain accounted for most of annual inflow and discharge and influenced flow pathway (interflow vs. overflow), resulting in a modification of chemical and biological conditions. Sharp contrasting interannual hydrology of intense vs. weak monsoon occurred during the study. The intense monsoon disrupted thermal stratification and resulted in ionic dilution, high TP and high inorganic solids (NVSS) in the headwater reach. The variation of NVSS accounted 75% of TP variation (slope = 4.14, p < 0.01, n = 48). Regression analysis of residual chlorophyll-a (Chl) versus flushing rate indicated that short hydraulic retention time and high mineral turbidity affected algal growth in the headwater reach during summer monsoon. In contrast, severe drought during weak monsoon produced strong thermal stratification, low inorganic solids, high total dissolved solids (TDS), and low TP in the entire system. In addition, Chl concentrations were controlled by phosphorus. Based on the physical, chemical and biological parameters, riverine conditions, dominated during the intense monsoon, but lacustrine conditions were evident during the weak monsoon. The interannual dynamics suggest that monsoon seasonality is considered the main forcing factor regulating overall functions and processes of the waterbody and this characteristic has an important implication to eutrophication of the system.

  17. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

    PubMed Central

    Deville, Pierre; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Blondel, Vincent D.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

  18. PHYTOPLANKTON DYNAMICS IN A GULF OF MEXICO ESTUARY: TIME SERIES OF SIZE STRUCTURE, NUTRIENTS, VARIABLE FLUORESCENCE AND ALGAL PHOSPHATASE ACTIVITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Relationships between phytoplankton dynamics and physiology, and environmental conditions were studied in Santa Rosa Sound, Florida, USA, at near-weekly intervals during 2001. Santa Rosa Sound is a component of the Pensacola Bay estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Parameters ...

  19. A linear model of population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  20. Multistability in simplest models of the population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhdanova, Oksana L.; Frisman, Efim Ya.

    2016-06-01

    The investigation of dynamics behavior of population number and genetic structure has been conducted for a homogeneous limited population influenced by density-dependent selection in single di-allelic genetic locus. The detailed investigation of the mechanisms of the loss of stability in the considered model is carried out. It is shown that coexistence of several different asymptotic dynamic regimes (with own attraction basins) is possible in numerous enough parametric regions which are meaningful biologically.

  1. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-07-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.

  2. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

    PubMed Central

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-01-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  3. The 5:1 Neptune Resonance: Dynamics and Population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pike, Rosemary E.; Kavelaars, J. J.; Gladman, Brett; Petit, Jean-Marc; Alexandersen, Mike

    2014-11-01

    Based on 4 objects detected with semi-major axes near the 5:1 external resonance with Neptune, we estimate a substantial and previously unrecognized population of objects, perhaps more significant than the 3:2 (Plutino) resonance population. These external resonances are largely unexplored in both observations and dynamical simulations. However, understanding the characteristics and trapping history for objects in these populations is critical for constraining the dynamical history of the solar system. The 4 objects detected in the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) were classified using dynamical integrations. Three are resonant, and the last appears to be a resonant drop-off. The 3 objects are taken to be representative of the steady-state population, so by using these detections and the CFEPS characterization (pointings and detection limits) we calculate a population estimate for this resonance at ~3000(+5000 -2000) with Hg<8. This is at least as large as the Plutinos (3:2 resonance) at 90% confidence. The small number of detected objects results in such a large population estimate due to the numerous biases against detecting objects with semimajor axes at 88AU. Based on the dynamical behavior of the known objects, the trapping mechanism for the 5:1 resonance appears to be resonance sticking from the scattering objects. The long resonance lifetimes of some dynamical clones suggests that a steady state population could be maintained through periodic sticking.

  4. Explaining "Noise" as Environmental Variations in Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Ginn, Timothy R.; Loge, Frank J.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2007-03-01

    The impacts of human activities on our own and other populations on the plant are making news at an alarming pace. Global warming, ocean and freshwater contamination and acidification, deforestation, habitat destruction and incursion, and in general a burgeoning human population are associated with a complete spectrum of changes to the dynamics of populations. Effects on songbirds, insects, coral reefs, ocean mammals, anadromous fishes, just to name a few, and humans, have been linked to human industry and population growth. The linkage, however, remains often ghostly and often tenuous at best, because of the difficulty in quantitatively combining ecological processes with environmental fate and transport processes. Establishing quantitative tools, that is, models, for the combined dynamics of populations and environmental chemical/thermal things is needed. This truly interdisciplinary challenge is briefly reviewed, and two approaches to integrating chemical and biological intermingling are addressed in the context of salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest.

  5. [The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

    PubMed

    Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

  6. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  7. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  8. How life history influences population dynamics in fluctuating environments.

    PubMed

    Saether, Bernt-Erik; Coulson, Tim; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar; Altwegg, Res; Armitage, Kenneth B; Barbraud, Christophe; Becker, Peter H; Blumstein, Daniel T; Dobson, F Stephen; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Jenkins, Andrew; Jones, Carl; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Norris, Ken; Oli, Madan K; Ozgul, Arpat; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2013-12-01

    A major question in ecology is how age-specific variation in demographic parameters influences population dynamics. Based on long-term studies of growing populations of birds and mammals, we analyze population dynamics by using fluctuations in the total reproductive value of the population. This enables us to account for random fluctuations in age distribution. The influence of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the population dynamics of a species decreased with generation time. Variation in age-specific contributions to total reproductive value and to stochastic components of population dynamics was correlated with the position of the species along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. Younger age classes relative to the generation time accounted for larger contributions to the total reproductive value and to demographic stochasticity in "slow" than in "fast" species, in which many age classes contributed more equally. In contrast, fluctuations in population growth rate attributable to stochastic environmental variation involved a larger proportion of all age classes independent of life history. Thus, changes in population growth rates can be surprisingly well explained by basic species-specific life-history characteristics.

  9. Multiple Cancer Cell Population Dynamics in a Complex Ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Ke-Chih; Targa, Gonzalo; Pienta, Kenneth; Sturm, James; Austin, Robert

    We have developed a technology for study of complex ecology cancer population dynamics. The technology includes complex drug gradients, full bright field/dark field/fluorescence imaging of areas of several square millimeters and thin gas-permable membranes which allow single cell extraction and analysis. We will present results of studies of prostate cancer cell dynamics.

  10. Cytonuclear dynamics in selfing populations under selection

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Renyi; Asmussen, Marjorie A.

    2007-01-01

    We develop a mathematical model to delimit the role of natural selection in maintaining nuclear and cytoplasmic polymorphisms in selfing populations. We provide explicit time‐dependent solutions for joint cytonuclear frequencies under any combination of constant fertility, viability, and gametic selection and exact analytical conditions for the maintenance of polymorphisms under joint cytonuclear selection. The equilibrium structure is determined by the relative magnitude of echo fitnesses, defined as the rate at which individuals survive and produce offspring with their own genotype. Both nuclear and cytoplasmic polymorphisms can be maintained under biologically meaningful conditions, although the majority of the parameter combinations will lead to fixation. The theoretical framework developed here should be very useful in formally dissecting the form and strength of selection on cytonuclear genotypes in populations with negligible levels of outcrossing. PMID:17467019

  11. Optimal birth control of population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Chan, W L; Guo, B Z

    1989-11-01

    The authors studied optimal birth control policies for an age-structured population of McKendrick type which is a distributed parameter system involving 1st order partial differential equations with nonlocal bilinear boundary control. The functional analytic approach of Dubovitskii and Milyutin is adopted in the investigation. Maximum principles for problems with a free end condition and fixed final horizon are developed, and the time optimal control problems, the problem with target sets, and infinite planning horizon case are investigated.

  12. Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Topics Eighth Annual National Conference on Health Communication, Marketing & Media August 19-21, 2014 Atlanta, GA Harmful Algal Blooms Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On this Page What's the ...

  13. Harmful Algal Blooms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Graham, Jennifer L.

    2007-01-01

    What are Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)? Freshwater and marine harmful algal blooms (HABs) can occur anytime water use is impaired due to excessive accumulations of algae. HAB occurrence is affected by a complex set of physical, chemical, biological, hydrological, and meteorological conditions making it difficult to isolate specific causative environmental factors. Potential impairments include reduction in water quality, accumulation of malodorous scums in beach areas, algal production of toxins potent enough to poison both aquatic and terrestrial organisms, and algal production of taste-and-odor compounds that cause unpalatable drinking water and fish. HABs are a global problem, and toxic freshwater and (or) marine algae have been implicated in human and animal illness and death in over 45 countries worldwide and in at least 27 U.S. States (Yoo and others, 1995; Chorus and Bartram, 1999; Huisman and others, 2005).

  14. A Particle Population Control Method for Dynamic Monte Carlo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweezy, Jeremy; Nolen, Steve; Adams, Terry; Zukaitis, Anthony

    2014-06-01

    A general particle population control method has been derived from splitting and Russian Roulette for dynamic Monte Carlo particle transport. A well-known particle population control method, known as the particle population comb, has been shown to be a special case of this general method. This general method has been incorporated in Los Alamos National Laboratory's Monte Carlo Application Toolkit (MCATK) and examples of it's use are shown for both super-critical and sub-critical systems.

  15. Algal Supply System Design - Harmonized Version

    SciTech Connect

    Abodeely, Jared; Stevens, Daniel; Ray, Allison; Newby, Deborah; Schaller, Kastli

    2013-03-01

    The objective of this design report is to provide an assessment of current technologies used for production, dewatering, and converting microalgae cultivated in open-pond systems to biofuel. The original draft design was created in 2011 and has subsequently been brought into agreement with the DOE harmonized model. The design report extends beyond this harmonized model to discuss some of the challenges with assessing algal production systems, including the ability to (1) quickly assess alternative algal production system designs, (2) assess spatial and temporal variability, and (3) perform large-scale assessments considering multiple scenarios for thousands of potential sites. The Algae Logistics Model (ALM) was developed to address each of these limitations of current modeling efforts to enable assessment of the economic feasibility of algal production systems across the United States. The (ALM) enables (1) dynamic assessments using spatiotemporal conditions, (2) exploration of algal production system design configurations, (3) investigation of algal production system operating assumptions, and (4) trade-off assessments with technology decisions and operating assumptions. The report discusses results from the ALM, which is used to assess the baseline design determined by harmonization efforts between U.S. DOE national laboratories. Productivity and resource assessment data is provided by coupling the ALM with the Biomass Assessment Tool developed at PNNL. This high-fidelity data is dynamically passed to the ALM and used to help better understand the impacts of spatial and temporal constraints on algal production systems by providing a cost for producing extracted algal lipids annually for each potential site.

  16. The effect of correlations on the population dynamics of lymphocytes.

    PubMed

    Wellard, C; Markham, J; Hawkins, E D; Hodgkin, P D

    2010-05-21

    Recent studies of the population dynamics of a system of lymphocytes in an in vitro immune response have reported strong correlations in cell division times, both between parents and their progeny, and between those of sibling cells. The data also show a high level of correlation in the ultimate number of divisions achieved by cells within the same clone. Such correlations are often ignored in mathematical models of cell dynamics as they violate a standard assumption in the theory of branching processes, that of the statistical independence of cells. In this article we present a model in which these correlations can be incorporated, and have used this model to study the effect of these correlations on the population dynamics of a system of cells. We found that correlation in the division times between parents and their progeny can alter the mean population size of clones within the system, while all of the correlations can affect the variance in the sizes of different clones. The model was then applied to experimental data obtained from time-lapse video microscopy of a system of CpG stimulated B lymphocytes and it was found that inclusion of the correct correlation structure is necessary to accurately reproduce the observed population dynamics. We conclude that correlations in the dynamics of cells within an ensemble will affect the population dynamics of the system, and the effects will become more pronounced as the number of divisions increases.

  17. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-08

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations-more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host-pathogen metapopulation.

  18. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations-more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host-pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  19. Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvidio, Sebastiano

    2007-05-01

    Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993 2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.

  20. Transient population dynamics: Relations to life history and initial population state

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, D.N.; Grand, J.B.; Zinner, B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    2005-01-01

    Most environments are variable and disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, fires) can lead to substantial changes in a population's state (i.e., age, stage, or size distribution). In these situations, the long-term (i.e., asymptotic) measure of population growth rate (??1) may inaccurately represent population growth in the short-term. Thus, we calculated the short-term (i.e., transient) population growth rate and its sensitivity to changes in the life-cycle parameters for three bird and three mammal species with widely varying life histories. Further, we performed these calculations for initial population states that spanned the entire range of possibilities. Variation in a population's initial net reproductive value largely explained the variation in transient growth rates and their sensitivities to changes in life-cycle parameters (all AICc ??? 6.67 units better than the null model, all R2 ??? 0.55). Additionally, the transient fertility and adult survival sensitivities tended to increase with the initial net reproductive value of the population, whereas the sub-adult survival sensitivity decreased. Transient population dynamics of long-lived, slow reproducing species were more variable and more different than asymptotic dynamics than they were for short-lived, fast reproducing species. Because ??1 can be a biased estimate of the actual growth rate in the short-term (e.g., 19% difference), conservation and wildlife biologists should consider transient dynamics when developing management plans that could affect a population's state, or whenever population state could be unstable.

  1. Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics.

    PubMed

    Barry, Alyssa E; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-05-01

    Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes.

  2. Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

    PubMed Central

    Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-01-01

    Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

  3. A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  4. A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Myerscough, Mary R.; Barron, Andrew B.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  5. Generational Spreading Speed and the Dynamics of Population Range Expansion.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Andrew W; Neubert, Michael G; Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A

    2015-09-01

    Some of the most fundamental quantities in population ecology describe the growth and spread of populations. Population dynamics are often characterized by the annual rate of increase, λ, or the generational rate of increase, R0. Analyses involving R0 have deepened our understanding of disease dynamics and life-history complexities beyond that afforded by analysis of annual growth alone. While range expansion is quantified by the annual spreading speed, a spatial analog of λ, an R0-like expression for the rate of spread is missing. Using integrodifference models, we derive the appropriate generational spreading speed for populations with complex (stage-structured) life histories. The resulting measure, relevant to locations near the expanding edge of a (re)colonizing population, incorporates both local population growth and explicit spatial dispersal rather than solely growth across a population, as is the case for R0. The calculations for generational spreading speed are often simpler than those for annual spreading speed, and analytic or partial analytic solutions can yield insight into the processes that facilitate or slow a population's spatial spread. We analyze the spatial dynamics of green crabs, sea otters, and teasel as examples to demonstrate the flexibility of our methods and the intuitive insights that they afford. PMID:26655354

  6. Population dynamics and the ecological stability of obligate pollination mutualisms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2001-01-01

    Mutualistic interactions almost always produce both costs and benefits for each of the interacting species. It is the difference between gross benefits and costs that determines the net benefit and the per-capita effect on each of the interacting populations. For example, the net benefit of obligate pollinators, such as yucca and senita moths, to plants is determined by the difference between the number of ovules fertilized from moth pollination and the number of ovules eaten by the pollinator's larvae. It is clear that if pollinator populations are large, then, because many eggs are laid, costs to plants are large, whereas, if pollinator populations are small, gross benefits are low due to lack of pollination. Even though the size and dynamics of the pollinator population are likely to be crucial, their importance has been neglected in the investigation of mechanisms, such as selective fruit abortion, that can limit costs and increase net benefits. Here, we suggest that both the population size and dynamics of pollinators are important in determining the net benefits to plants, and that fruit abortion can significantly affect these. We develop a model of mutualism between populations of plants and their pollinating seed-predators to explore the ecological consequences of fruit abortion on pollinator population dynamics and the net effect on plants. We demonstrate that the benefit to a plant population is unimodal as a function of pollinator abundance, relative to the abundance of flowers. Both selective abortion of fruit with eggs and random abortion of fruit, without reference to whether they have eggs or not, can limit pollinator population size. This can increase the net benefits to the plant population by limiting the number of eggs laid, if the pollination rate remains high. However, fruit abortion can possibly destabilize the pollinator population, with negative consequences for the plant population.

  7. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Leibler, Stanislas

    2015-10-01

    Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES) as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  8. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ronald D.; Lee, Sang-Hyop

    2015-01-01

    Upward intergenerational flows – from the working ages to old age – are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages – the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are

  9. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A; Urban, Marie L; Rose, Amy N; Coleman, Phil R; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  10. Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

    2016-02-01

    The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

  11. Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations.

    PubMed

    Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

    2016-02-01

    The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions. PMID:26986362

  12. Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

    2008-01-01

    Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

  13. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    PubMed

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species.

  14. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    PubMed

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. PMID:27062059

  15. Life history and population dynamics of an estuarine amphipod, Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aravind, Nisha P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K. K. C.; Achuthankutty, C. T.

    2007-08-01

    The life cycle of the gammarid amphipod Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton from the Cochin estuary, south west coast of India, has been studied for the first time under laboratory conditions. Amphipods, especially gammarids, are used as potential live feed in fish culture. Eriopisa chilkensis can withstand wide variations in salinity (5-35) and temperature (27.5-34 °C) of the medium. It was cultured in un-aerated finger bowls using dried algal matter ( Chara sp.) as food. The life span of females was found to be higher (maximum: 220 days) than males (maximum: 175 days). Females were iteroparous and attained sexual maturity within 39.3 ± 6 days (mean ± SD), whereas males matured within 26.5 ± 5.6 days. Number of broods in a life span ranged from 4 to 7. The maximum number of juveniles produced in a single brood was 29 and the maximum number of juveniles produced by a single female over a lifetime was 139. The duration of embryonic development was 12 ± 2.45 days. The population dynamics of E. chilkensis was studied based on monthly sampling, over one year from the mangrove swamps of Puduvypin. It occurred in varying densities in the epifaunal community (21-1583 ind. m -2). Extrapolation of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle.

  16. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Close, Dan; Sayler, Gary Steven; Xu, Tingting; Ripp, Steven Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  17. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease

    PubMed Central

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F.; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations—more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host–pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  18. Spatially structured population dynamics in feral oilseed rape.

    PubMed Central

    Crawley, Michael J.; Brown, Susan L.

    2004-01-01

    We studied the population dynamics of feral oilseed rape (Brassica napus) for 10 years (1993-2002) in 3658 adjacent permanent 100 m quadrats in the verges of the M25 motorway around London, UK. The aim was to determine the relative importance of different factors affecting the observed temporal patterns of population dynamics and their spatial correlations. A wide range of population dynamics was observed (downward or upward trends, cycles, local extinctions and recolonizations), but overall the populations were not self-replacing (lambda < 1). Many quadrats remained unoccupied throughout the study period, but a few were occupied at high densities for all 10 years. Most quadrats showed transient oilseed rape populations, lasting 1-4 years. There were strong spatial patterns in mean population density, associated with soil conditions and the successional age of the plant community dominating the verge, and these large-scale spatial patterns were highly consistent from year to year. The importance of seed spilled from trucks in transit to the processing plant at Erith in Kent was confirmed: rape populations were significantly higher on the 'to Erith' verge than the 'from Erith' verge (overall mean 2.83-fold greater stem density). Quadrats in which lambda > 1 were much more frequent in the 'to Erith' verge, indicating that seed immigration can give the spurious impression of self-replacing population dynamics in time-series analysis. There was little evidence of a pervasive Moran effect, and climatic forcing did not produce widespread large-scale synchrony in population dynamics for the motorway as a whole; just 23% of quadrats had significant rank correlations with the mean time-series. There was, however, significant local spatial synchrony of population dynamics, apparently associated with soil disturbance and seed input. This study draws attention to the possibility that different processes may impose population synchrony at different scales. We hypothesize that

  19. Dynamics of Sequence -Discrete Bacterial Populations Inferred Using Metagenomes

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, Sarah; Bendall, Matthew; Kang, Dongwan; Froula, Jeff; Egan, Rob; Chan, Leong-Keat; Tringe, Susannah; McMahon, Katherine; Malmstrom, Rex

    2014-03-14

    From a multi-year metagenomic time series of two dissimilar Wisconsin lakes we have assembled dozens of genomes using a novel approach that bins contigs into distinct genome based on sequence composition, e.g. kmer frequencies, and contig coverage patterns at various times points. Next, we investigated how these genomes, which represent sequence-discrete bacterial populations, evolved over time and used the time series to discover the population dynamics. For example, we explored changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies as well as patterns of gene gain and loss in multiple populations. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in some populations during the course of this study, suggesting these populations may have experienced genome-wide selective sweeps. This represents the first direct, time-resolved observations of periodic selection in natural populations, a key process predicted by the ecotype model of bacterial diversification.

  20. Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

    PubMed Central

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

  1. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    PubMed

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  2. An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

  3. Locally dispersing populations in heterogeneous dynamic landscapes with spatiotemporal correlations. II. Habitat driven by voter dynamics.

    PubMed

    Hiebeler, David E; Hill, Jack L

    2016-10-21

    We examine a spatially explicit population model on a dynamic landscape with suitable and unsuitable habitat driven by voter or contagion dynamics. We consider four cases, consisting of all combinations of local and global interactions for both population dispersal and habitat dynamics. For both local and global population dispersal, using local habitat dynamics always increases population density relative to the case with global habitat dynamics, due to the resulting segregation of habitat turnover, decrease in effective habitat turnover rate, and presence of stable habitat corridors. With global habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal exhibits lower density than one with global dispersal due to local crowding as well as frequent disturbance due to habitat transitions. On the other hand, with local habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal can exploit suitable habitat patches and use dynamic corridors to colonize new regions. The latter effect is not seen with static landscapes, where clustered habitat can lead to the isolation of suitable patches due to surrounding unsuitable habitat.

  4. Locally dispersing populations in heterogeneous dynamic landscapes with spatiotemporal correlations. II. Habitat driven by voter dynamics.

    PubMed

    Hiebeler, David E; Hill, Jack L

    2016-10-21

    We examine a spatially explicit population model on a dynamic landscape with suitable and unsuitable habitat driven by voter or contagion dynamics. We consider four cases, consisting of all combinations of local and global interactions for both population dispersal and habitat dynamics. For both local and global population dispersal, using local habitat dynamics always increases population density relative to the case with global habitat dynamics, due to the resulting segregation of habitat turnover, decrease in effective habitat turnover rate, and presence of stable habitat corridors. With global habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal exhibits lower density than one with global dispersal due to local crowding as well as frequent disturbance due to habitat transitions. On the other hand, with local habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal can exploit suitable habitat patches and use dynamic corridors to colonize new regions. The latter effect is not seen with static landscapes, where clustered habitat can lead to the isolation of suitable patches due to surrounding unsuitable habitat. PMID:27457095

  5. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t < t1 = κb) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t_1\\lt t\\lt t_2\\propto \\kappa_a and for which θ0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  6. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

  7. Dynamical quorum sensing and clustering dynamics in a population of spatially distributed active rotators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Maeyama, Satomi

    2013-02-01

    A model of clustering dynamics is proposed for a population of spatially distributed active rotators. A transition from excitable to oscillatory dynamics is induced by the increase of the local density of active rotators. It is interpreted as dynamical quorum sensing. In the oscillation regime, phase waves propagate without decay, which generates an effectively long-range interaction in the clustering dynamics. The clustering process becomes facilitated and only one dominant cluster appears rapidly as a result of the dynamical quorum sensing. An exact localized solution is found to a simplified model equation, and the competitive dynamics between two localized states is studied numerically.

  8. Dynamic noise, chaos and parameter estimation in population biology.

    PubMed

    Stollenwerk, N; Aguiar, M; Ballesteros, S; Boto, J; Kooi, B; Mateus, L

    2012-04-01

    We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models such as multi-strain dynamics to describe the virus-host interaction in dengue fever, even the most recently developed parameter estimation techniques, such as maximum likelihood iterated filtering, reach their computational limits. However, the first results of parameter estimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay between stochasticity and the deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own already displays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multiple attractors.

  9. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    PubMed

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure.

  10. Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

    2012-01-01

    The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (σ = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

  11. Population dynamic theory of size-dependent cannibalism.

    PubMed Central

    Claessen, David; de Roos, André M.; Persson, Lennart

    2004-01-01

    Cannibalism is characterized by four aspects: killing victims, gaining energy from victims, size-dependent interactions and intraspecific competition. In this review of mathematical models of cannibalistic populations, we relate the predicted population dynamic consequences of cannibalism to its four defining aspects. We distinguish five classes of effects of cannibalism: (i) regulation of population size; (ii) destabilization resulting in population cycles or chaos; (iii) stabilization by damping population cycles caused by other interactions; (iv) bistability such that, depending on the initial conditions, the population converges to one of two possible stable states; and (v) modification of the population size structure. The same effects of cannibalism may be caused by different combinations of aspects of cannibalism. By contrast, the same combination of aspects may lead to different effects. For particular cannibalistic species, the consequences of cannibalism will depend on the presence and details of the four defining aspects. Empirical evidence for the emerged theory of cannibalism is discussed briefly. The implications of the described dynamic effects of cannibalism are discussed in the context of community structure, making a comparison with the community effects of intraguild predation. PMID:15101690

  12. Bacterial associations reveal spatial population dynamics in Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes

    PubMed Central

    Buck, Moritz; Nilsson, Louise K. J.; Brunius, Carl; Dabiré, Roch K.; Hopkins, Richard; Terenius, Olle

    2016-01-01

    The intolerable burden of malaria has for too long plagued humanity and the prospect of eradicating malaria is an optimistic, but reachable, target in the 21st century. However, extensive knowledge is needed about the spatial structure of mosquito populations in order to develop effective interventions against malaria transmission. We hypothesized that the microbiota associated with a mosquito reflects acquisition of bacteria in different environments. By analyzing the whole-body bacterial flora of An. gambiae mosquitoes from Burkina Faso by 16 S amplicon sequencing, we found that the different environments gave each mosquito a specific bacterial profile. In addition, the bacterial profiles provided precise and predicting information on the spatial dynamics of the mosquito population as a whole and showed that the mosquitoes formed clear local populations within a meta-population network. We believe that using microbiotas as proxies for population structures will greatly aid improving the performance of vector interventions around the world. PMID:26960555

  13. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.

    2008-06-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, η Car, ζ Pup, γ2 Velorum and WR 140.

  14. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  15. Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

    2002-01-01

    We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

  16. Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review

    PubMed Central

    Perc, Matjaž; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

    2013-01-01

    Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

  17. Algal Biofuels Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    2009-10-27

    This fact sheet provides information on algal biofuels, which are generating considerable interest around the world. They may represent a sustainable pathway for helping to meet the U.S. biofuel production targets set by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

  18. Algal Bloom Detection from HICO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amin, Ruhul; Gould, Richard

    2014-05-01

    Ocean color satellites provide daily, global views of marine bio-optical properties in the upper ocean at various spatial scales. The most productive area of the global ocean is the coastal zone which is heavily impacted by urban and agricultural runoff, transportation, recreation, and oil and gas production. In recent years, harmful algal blooms (HABs) have become one of the serious environmental problems in the coastal areas on a global scale. The global nature of the problem has expanded in its frequency, severity, and extent over the last several decades. Human activities and population increases have contributed to an increase in various toxic and noxious algal species in the coastal regions worldwide. Eutrophication in estuaries and coastal waters is believed to be the major factor causing HABs. In this study, we assess the applicability of the Red Band Difference (RBD) HAB detection algorithm on data from the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO). Our preliminary results show that due to various uncertainties such as atmospheric correction, calibration and possibly also the relatively low signal-to-noise ratio of HICO for fluorescence detection, it is difficult to extract the fluorescence portion of the reflectance spectrum that RBD uses for bloom detection. We propose an improved bloom detection technique for HICO using red and NIR bands. Our results are validated using other space-borne and ground based measurements.

  19. Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

    PubMed

    Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

    2010-06-01

    Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

  20. Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  1. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  2. Metamodels for transdisciplinary analysis of wildlife population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lacy, Robert C; Miller, Philip S; Nyhus, Philip J; Pollak, J P; Raboy, Becky E; Zeigler, Sara L

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological - physical - human systems. We describe a "metamodel" approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples - one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics - to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  3. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ''diversity waves'' triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak--species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies. PMID:26367172

  4. Population dynamics of epiphytic orchids in a metapopulation context

    PubMed Central

    Winkler, Manuela; Hülber, Karl; Hietz, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims Populations of many epiphytes show a patchy distribution where clusters of plants growing on individual trees are spatially separated and may thus function as metapopulations. Seed dispersal is necessary to (re)colonize unoccupied habitats, and to transfer seeds from high- to low-competition patches. Increasing dispersal distances, however, reduces local fecundity and the probability that seeds will find a safe site outside the original patch. Thus, there is a conflict between seed survival and colonization. Methods Populations of three epiphytic orchids were monitored over three years in a Mexican humid montane forest and analysed with spatially averaged and with spatially explicit matrix metapopulation models. In the latter, population dynamics at the scale of the subpopulations (epiphytes on individual host trees) are based on detailed stage-structured observations of transition probabilities and trees are connected by a dispersal function. Key Results Population growth rates differed among trees and years. While ignoring these differences, and averaging the population matrices over trees, yields negative population growth, metapopulation models predict stable or growing populations because the trees that support growing subpopulations determine the growth of the metapopulation. Stochastic models which account for the differences among years differed only marginally from deterministic models. Population growth rates were significantly lower, and extinctions of local patches more frequent in models where higher dispersal results in reduced local fecundity compared with hypothetical models where this is not the case. The difference between the two models increased with increasing mean dispersal distance. Though recolonization events increased with dispersal distance, this could not compensate the losses due to reduced local fecundity. Conclusions For epiphytes, metapopulation models are useful to capture processes beyond the level of the single

  5. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ''diversity waves'' triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak--species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

  6. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

  7. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    DOE PAGES

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

  8. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-01-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies. PMID:26367172

  9. The population dynamics of an endemic collectible cactus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandujano, María C.; Bravo, Yolotzin; Verhulst, Johannes; Carrillo-Angeles, Israel; Golubov, Jordan

    2015-02-01

    Astrophytum is one of most collected genera in the cactus family. Around the world several species are maintained in collections and yearly, several plants are taken from their natural habitats. Populations of Astorphytum capricorne are found in the northern Chihuahuan desert, Mexico, and as many endemic cactus species, it has a highly restricted habitat. We conducted a demographic study from 2008 to 2010 of the northern populations found at Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. We applied matrix population models, included simulations, life table response experiments and descriptions of the population dynamics to evaluate the current status of the species, and detect key life table stages and demographic processes. Population growth rate decreased in both years and only 4% individual mortality can be attributed to looting, and a massive effort is needed to increase seedling recruitment and reduce adult mortality. The fate of individuals differed between years even having the same annual rainfall mainly in accentuated stasis, retrogression and high mortality in all size classes, which coupled with low seed production, no recruitment and collection of plants are the causes contributing to population decline, and hence, increase the risk in which A. capricorne populations are found. Reintroduction of seedlings and lowering adult mortality are urgently needed to revert the alarming demographic condition of A. capricorne populations.

  10. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

    PubMed Central

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

    2014-01-01

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

  11. Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland.

    PubMed

    Tornberg, Risto; Lindén, Andreas; Byholm, Patrik; Ranta, Esa; Valkama, Jari; Helle, Pekka; Lindén, Harto

    2013-04-01

    Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator-prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986-2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983-2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator-prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1-3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk-grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than

  12. The influence of a toxic cyanobacterial bloom and water hydrology on algal populations and macroinvertebrate abundance in the upper littoral zone of Lake Krugersdrift, South Africa.

    PubMed

    Oberholster, Paul J; Botha, Anna-Maria; Ashton, Peter J

    2009-01-01

    The biological interactions and the physical and chemical properties of the littoral zone of Lake Krugersdrift were studied for a 4-month period when a dense, toxic cyanobacterial bloom dominated by Microcystis aeruginosa was present in the main lake basin. The presence of a toxic strain of M. aeruginosa was confirmed through the use of ELISA and molecular markers that detect the presence of the mcyB and mcyD genes of the mcy gene cluster that synthesizes microcystin. An increase in Microcystis toxicity at sites dominated by the cyanobacterial scum was accompanied by an increase in total abundance of the macroinvertebrate families Hirudinae, Chironomidae, and Tubificidae. Sites located away from the cyanobacterial scum had a lower abundance but a higher diversity of macroinvertebrates. The water quality under the Microcystis scum was characterized by low pH values, low concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and lower total alkalinity values. The periphytic alga Ulothrix zonata was absent in areas dominated by the cyanobacterial scum, possibly as a result of overshadowing by the scum or direct toxic allelopathic effects on growth and photosynthesis. The diatom Diatoma vulgare dominated the benthic algal flora beneath the cyanobacterial scum.

  13. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling.

    PubMed

    Karanth, K Ullas; Nichols, James D; Kumar, N Samba; Hines, James E

    2006-11-01

    Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis

  14. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain

  15. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

    2012-11-01

    Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  16. Optimal control methods for controlling bacterial populations with persister dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cogan, N. G.

    2016-06-01

    Bacterial tolerance to antibiotics is a well-known phenomena; however, only recent studies of bacterial biofilms have shown how multifaceted tolerance really is. By joining into a structured community and offering shared protection and gene transfer, bacterial populations can protect themselves genotypically, phenotypically and physically. In this study, we collect a line of research that focuses on phenotypic (or plastic) tolerance. The dynamics of persister formation are becoming better understood, even though there are major questions that remain. The thrust of our results indicate that even without detailed description of the biological mechanisms, theoretical studies can offer strategies that can eradicate bacterial populations with existing drugs.

  17. Long-term dynamics of adaptation in asexual populations.

    PubMed

    Wiser, Michael J; Ribeck, Noah; Lenski, Richard E

    2013-12-13

    Experimental studies of evolution have increased greatly in number in recent years, stimulated by the growing power of genomic tools. However, organismal fitness remains the ultimate metric for interpreting these experiments, and the dynamics of fitness remain poorly understood over long time scales. Here, we examine fitness trajectories for 12 Escherichia coli populations during 50,000 generations. Mean fitness appears to increase without bound, consistent with a power law. We also derive this power-law relation theoretically by incorporating clonal interference and diminishing-returns epistasis into a dynamical model of changes in mean fitness over time.

  18. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  19. How should environmental stress affect the population dynamics of disease?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Holt, Robert D.

    2003-01-01

    We modelled how stress affects the population dynamics of infectious disease. We were specifically concerned with stress that increased susceptibility of uninfected hosts when exposed to infection. If such stresses also reduced resources, fecundity and/or survivorship, there was a reduction in the host carrying capacity. This lowered the contact between infected and uninfected hosts, thereby decreasing transmission. In addition, stress that increased parasite mortality decreased disease. The opposing effects of stress on disease dynamics made it difficult to predict the response of disease to environmental stress. We found analytical solutions with negative, positive, convex and concave associations between disease and stress. Numerical simulations with randomly generated parameter values suggested that the impact of host-specific diseases generally declined with stress while the impact of non-specific (or open) diseases increased with stress. These results help clarify predictions about the interaction between environmental stress and disease in natural populations.

  20. Algebraic moment closure for population dynamics on discrete structures.

    PubMed

    House, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Moment closure on general discrete structures often requires one of the following: (i) an absence of short-closed loops (zero clustering); (ii) existence of a spatial scale; (iii) ad hoc assumptions. Algebraic methods are presented to avoid the use of such assumptions for populations based on clumps and are applied to both SIR and macroparasite disease dynamics. One approach involves a series of approximations that can be derived systematically, and another is exact and based on Lie algebraic methods.

  1. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Three Potato Pests in Washington State.

    PubMed

    D'Auria, Elizabeth M; Wohleb, Carrie H; Waters, Timothy D; Crowder, David W

    2016-08-01

    Pest phenology models allow producers to anticipate pest outbreaks and deploy integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Phenology models are particularly useful for cropping systems with multiple economically damaging pests throughout a season. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops of Washington State, USA, are attacked by many insect pests including the potato tuberworm (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller), the beet leafhopper (Circulifer tenellus Baker), and the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae Sulzer). Each of these pests directly damages potato foliage or tubers; C. tenellus and M. persicae also transmit pathogens that can drastically reduce potato yields. We monitored the seasonal population dynamics of these pests by conducting weekly sampling on a network of commercial farms from 2007 to 2014. Using these data, we developed phenology models to characterize the seasonal population dynamics of each pest based on accumulated degree-days (DD). All three pests exhibited consistent population dynamics across seasons that were mediated by temperature. Of the three pests, C. tenellus was generally the first detected in potato crops, with 90% of adults captured by 936 DD. In contrast, populations of P. operculella and M. persicae built up more slowly over the course of the season, with 90% cumulative catch by 1,590 and 2,634 DD, respectively. Understanding these seasonal patterns could help potato producers plan their IPM strategies while allowing them to move away from calendar-based applications of insecticides. More broadly, our results show how long-term monitoring studies that explore dynamics of multiple pest species can aid in developing IPM strategies in crop systems. PMID:27271946

  2. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Three Potato Pests in Washington State.

    PubMed

    D'Auria, Elizabeth M; Wohleb, Carrie H; Waters, Timothy D; Crowder, David W

    2016-08-01

    Pest phenology models allow producers to anticipate pest outbreaks and deploy integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Phenology models are particularly useful for cropping systems with multiple economically damaging pests throughout a season. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops of Washington State, USA, are attacked by many insect pests including the potato tuberworm (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller), the beet leafhopper (Circulifer tenellus Baker), and the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae Sulzer). Each of these pests directly damages potato foliage or tubers; C. tenellus and M. persicae also transmit pathogens that can drastically reduce potato yields. We monitored the seasonal population dynamics of these pests by conducting weekly sampling on a network of commercial farms from 2007 to 2014. Using these data, we developed phenology models to characterize the seasonal population dynamics of each pest based on accumulated degree-days (DD). All three pests exhibited consistent population dynamics across seasons that were mediated by temperature. Of the three pests, C. tenellus was generally the first detected in potato crops, with 90% of adults captured by 936 DD. In contrast, populations of P. operculella and M. persicae built up more slowly over the course of the season, with 90% cumulative catch by 1,590 and 2,634 DD, respectively. Understanding these seasonal patterns could help potato producers plan their IPM strategies while allowing them to move away from calendar-based applications of insecticides. More broadly, our results show how long-term monitoring studies that explore dynamics of multiple pest species can aid in developing IPM strategies in crop systems.

  3. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  4. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

    PubMed Central

    Sabes, Philip N.

    2015-01-01

    Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

  5. Algal sensory photoreceptors.

    PubMed

    Hegemann, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Only five major types of sensory photoreceptors (BLUF-proteins, cryptochromes, phototropins, phytochromes, and rhodopsins) are used in nature to regulate developmental processes, photosynthesis, photoorientation, and control of the circadian clock. Sensory photoreceptors of algae and protists are exceptionally rich in structure and function; light-gated ion channels and photoactivated adenylate cyclases are unique examples. During the past ten years major progress has been made with respect to understanding the function, photochemistry, and structure of key sensory players of the algal kingdom.

  6. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  7. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Morales, Juan M.; Moorcroft, Paul R.; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Kie, John G.; Powell, Roger A.; Merrill, Evelyn H.; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2010-01-01

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through ‘spatially informed’ movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission–fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction. PMID:20566505

  8. VCGDB: a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The data released by the 1000 Genomes Project contain an increasing number of genome sequences from different nations and populations with a large number of genetic variations. As a result, the focus of human genome studies is changing from single and static to complex and dynamic. The currently available human reference genome (GRCh37) is based on sequencing data from 13 anonymous Caucasian volunteers, which might limit the scope of genomics, transcriptomics, epigenetics, and genome wide association studies. Description We used the massive amount of sequencing data published by the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium to construct the Virtual Chinese Genome Database (VCGDB), a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population based on the whole genome sequencing data of 194 individuals. VCGDB provides dynamic genomic information, which contains 35 million single nucleotide variations (SNVs), 0.5 million insertions/deletions (indels), and 29 million rare variations, together with genomic annotation information. VCGDB also provides a highly interactive user-friendly virtual Chinese genome browser (VCGBrowser) with functions like seamless zooming and real-time searching. In addition, we have established three population-specific consensus Chinese reference genomes that are compatible with mainstream alignment software. Conclusions VCGDB offers a feasible strategy for processing big data to keep pace with the biological data explosion by providing a robust resource for genomics studies; in particular, studies aimed at finding regions of the genome associated with diseases. PMID:24708222

  9. Inferring the Dynamics of Effective Population Size Using Autosomal Genomes

    PubMed Central

    Hou, Zheng; Luo, Yin; Wang, Zhisheng; Zheng, Hong-Xiang; Wang, Yi; Zhou, Hang; Wu, Leqin; Jin, Li

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing technology has provided a great opportunity for inferring human demographic history by investigating changes in the effective population size (Ne). In this report, we introduce a strategy for estimating Ne dynamics, allowing the exploration of large multi-locus SNP datasets. We applied this strategy to the Phase 1 Han Chinese samples from the 1000 Genomes Project. The Han Chinese population has undergone a continuous expansion since 25,000 years ago, at first slowly from about 7,300 to 9,800 (at the end of the last glacial maximum about 15,000 YBP), then more quickly to about 46,000 (at the beginning of the Neolithic about 8,000 YBP), and then even more quickly to reach a population size of about 140,000 (recently). PMID:26832887

  10. Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations

    PubMed Central

    Santos, F. C.; Pacheco, J. M.; Lenaerts, Tom

    2006-01-01

    Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations. PMID:16484371

  11. Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.

    PubMed

    Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom

    2006-02-28

    Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations. PMID:16484371

  12. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  13. Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.; Cosner, Chris; Obaza, Adam; Jopp, Fred

    2010-01-01

    Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the reaction-diffusion mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first--the 'refuge mechanism--hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the 'dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism' is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.

  14. Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

  15. [On the relation between encounter rate and population density: Are classical models of population dynamics justified?].

    PubMed

    Nedorezov, L V

    2015-01-01

    A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals.

  16. Raman spectroscopy for the characterization of algal cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samek, Ota; Jonáš, Alexandr; Pilát, Zdeněk; Zemánek, Pavel; Nedbal, Ladislav; Tříska, Jan; Kotas, Petr; Trtílek, Martin

    2010-12-01

    Raman spectroscopy can elucidate fundamental questions about intercellular variability and what governs it. Moreover, knowing the metabolic response on single cell level this can significantly contribute to the study and use of microalgae in systems biology and biofuel technology. Raman spectroscopy is capable to measure nutrient dynamics and metabolism in vivo, in real-time, label free making it possible to monitor/evaluate population variability. Also, degree of unsaturation of the algae oil (iodine value) can be measured using Raman spectra obtained from single microalgae. The iodine value is the determination of the amount of unsaturation contained in fatty acids (in the form of double bonds). Here we demonstrate the capacity of the spatially resolved Raman microspectroscopy to determine the effective iodine value in lipid storage bodies of individual living algal cells. We employed the characteristic peaks in the Raman scattering spectra at 1,656 cm-1 (cis C=C stretching mode) and 1,445 cm-1 (CH2 scissoring mode) as the markers defining the ratio of unsaturated-to-saturated carbon-carbon bonds of the fatty acids in the algal lipids.

  17. National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrell, John; Sarisky-Reed, Valerie

    2010-05-01

    The framework for National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap was constructed at the Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap Workshop, held December 9-10, 2008, at the University of Maryland-College Park. The Workshop was organized by the Biomass Program to discuss and identify the critical challenges currently hindering the development of a domestic, commercial-scale algal biofuels industry. This Roadmap presents information from a scientific, economic, and policy perspectives that can support and guide RD&D investment in algal biofuels. While addressing the potential economic and environmental benefits of using algal biomass for the production of liquid transportation fuels, the Roadmap describes the current status of algae RD&D. In doing so, it lays the groundwork for identifying challenges that likely need to be overcome for algal biomass to be used in the production of economically viable biofuels.

  18. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

    PubMed Central

    Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

  19. Spatial structure and chaos in insect population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassell, Michael P.; Comins, Hugh N.; Mayt, Robert M.

    1991-09-01

    MOST environments are spatially subdivided, or patchy, and there has been much interest in the relationship between the dynamics of populations at the local and regional (metapopulation) scales1. Here we study mathematical models for host-parasitoid interactions, where in each generation specified fractions (µN and µp, respectively) of the host and parasitoid subpopulations in each patch move to adjacent patches; in most previous work, the movement is not localized but is to any other patch2. These simple and biologically sensible models with limited diffusive dispersal exhibit a remarkable range of dynamic behaviour: the density of the host and parasitoid subpopulations in a two-dimensional array of patches may exhibit complex patterns of spiral waves or spatially chaotic variation, they may show static 'crystal lattice' patterns, or they may become extinct. This range of behaviour is obtained with the local dynamics being deterministically unstable, with a constant host reproductive rate and no density dependence in the movement patterns. The dynamics depend on the host reproductive rate, and on the values of the parameters µN and µp. The results are relatively insensitive to the details of the interactions; we get essentially the same results from the mathematically-explicit Nicholon-Bailey model of host-parasitoid interactions, and from a very general 'cellular automaton' model in which only qualitative rules are specified. We conclude that local movement in a patchy environment can help otherwise unstable host and parasitoid populations to persist together, but that the deterministically generated spatial patterns in population density can be exceedingly complex (and sometimes indistinguishable from random environmental fluctuations).

  20. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradde, Serena; Vucelja, Marija; Tesileanu, Tiberiu; Balasubramanian, Vijay

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations oscillate, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a ``winner-take-all'' scenario, leading to a specialized spacer distribution. Bacteria can interpolate between these limiting behaviors by actively tuning their overall acquisition rate.

  1. Dynamic distributions and population declines of Golden-winged Warblers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberg, Kenneth V.; Will, Tom; Buehler, David A.; Barker Swarthout, Sara; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Chandler, Richard

    2016-01-01

    With an estimated breeding population in 2010 of 383,000 pairs, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) is among the most vulnerable and steeply declining of North American passerines. This species also has exhibited among the most dynamic breeding distributions, with populations expanding and then contracting over the past 150 years in response to regional habitat changes, interactions with closely related Blue-winged Warblers (V. cyanoptera), and possibly climate change. Since 1966, the rangewide population has declined by >70% (-2.3% per year; latest North American Breeding Bird Survey data), with much steeper declines in the Appalachian Mountains bird conservation region (-8.3% per year, 98% overall decline). Despite apparently stable or increasing populations in the northwestern part of the range (Minnesota, Manitoba), population estimates for Golden-winged Warbler have continued to decline by 18% from the decade of the 1990s to the 2000s. Population modeling predicts a further decline to roughly 37,000 individuals by 2100, with the species likely to persist only in Manitoba, Minnesota, and possibly Ontario. To delineate the present-day distribution and to identify population concentrations that could serve as conservation focus areas, we compiled rangewide survey data collected in 2000-2006 in 21 states and 3 Canadian provinces, as part of the Golden-winged Warbler Atlas Project (GOWAP), supplemented by state and provincial Breeding Bird Atlas data and more recent observations in eBird. Based on >8,000 GOWAP surveys for Golden-winged and Blue-winged warblers and their hybrids, we mapped occurrence of phenotypically pure and mixed populations in a roughly 0.5-degree grid across the species’ ranges. Hybrids and mixed Golden-winged-Blue-winged populations occurred in a relatively narrow zone across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, southern Ontario, and northern New York. Phenotypically pure Golden-winged Warbler populations occurred north of this

  2. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  3. Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, A R E

    2003-01-01

    The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

  4. Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

    PubMed Central

    Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

  5. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-06-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

  6. Aphid Species and Population Dynamics Associated with Strawberry.

    PubMed

    Bernardi, D; Araujo, E S; Zawadneak, M A C; Botton, M; Mogor, A F; Garcia, M S

    2013-12-01

    Aphids are among the major pests associated with strawberries in Southern Brasil. In this study, we identified the main species that occur in strawberry fields in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. We also compared the effectiveness of different sampling methods and studied the population dynamics of aphid species during two strawberry crop cycles in the municipality of Pinhais, state of Paraná, Brasil. Chaetosiphon fragaefolii (Cockerell) and Aphis forbesi Weed were the main species associated with strawberry. The method of hit plant and the Möericke trap showed equal effectiveness to capture wingless and winged insects. The peak population of aphids in the state of Paraná occurred from September to November. This information can help producers to implement strategies to monitor and control the major aphid species that occur in strawberry culture. PMID:27193281

  7. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment.

    PubMed

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  8. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    PubMed Central

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings. PMID:26904150

  9. Population-dynamics method with a multicanonical feedback control.

    PubMed

    Nemoto, Takahiro; Bouchet, Freddy; Jack, Robert L; Lecomte, Vivien

    2016-06-01

    We discuss the Giardinà-Kurchan-Peliti population dynamics method for evaluating large deviations of time-averaged quantities in Markov processes [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 120603 (2006)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.96.120603]. This method exhibits systematic errors which can be large in some circumstances, particularly for systems with weak noise, with many degrees of freedom, or close to dynamical phase transitions. We show how these errors can be mitigated by introducing control forces within the algorithm. These forces are determined by an iteration-and-feedback scheme, inspired by multicanonical methods in equilibrium sampling. We demonstrate substantially improved results in a simple model, and we discuss potential applications to more complex systems. PMID:27415224

  10. Mosquito population dynamics from cellular automata-based simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syafarina, Inna; Sadikin, Rifki; Nuraini, Nuning

    2016-02-01

    In this paper we present an innovative model for simulating mosquito-vector population dynamics. The simulation consist of two stages: demography and dispersal dynamics. For demography simulation, we follow the existing model for modeling a mosquito life cycles. Moreover, we use cellular automata-based model for simulating dispersal of the vector. In simulation, each individual vector is able to move to other grid based on a random walk. Our model is also capable to represent immunity factor for each grid. We simulate the model to evaluate its correctness. Based on the simulations, we can conclude that our model is correct. However, our model need to be improved to find a realistic parameters to match real data.

  11. Auctions with Dynamic Populations: Efficiency and Revenue Maximization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Said, Maher

    We study a stochastic sequential allocation problem with a dynamic population of privately-informed buyers. We characterize the set of efficient allocation rules and show that a dynamic VCG mechanism is both efficient and periodic ex post incentive compatible; we also show that the revenue-maximizing direct mechanism is a pivot mechanism with a reserve price. We then consider sequential ascending auctions in this setting, both with and without a reserve price. We construct equilibrium bidding strategies in this indirect mechanism where bidders reveal their private information in every period, yielding the same outcomes as the direct mechanisms. Thus, the sequential ascending auction is a natural institution for achieving either efficient or optimal outcomes.

  12. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment.

    PubMed

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings. PMID:26904150

  13. The island syndrome and population dynamics of introduced rats.

    PubMed

    Russell, James C; Ringler, David; Trombini, Aurélien; Le Corre, Matthieu

    2011-11-01

    The island syndrome predicts directional changes in the morphology and demography of insular vertebrates, due to changes in trophic complexity and migration rates caused by island size and isolation. However, the high rate of human-mediated species introductions to some islands also increases trophic complexity, and this will reduce the perceived insularity on any such island. We test four hypotheses on the role of increased trophic complexity on the island syndrome, using introduced black rats (Rattus rattus) on two isolated coral atolls in the Mozambique Channel. Europa Island has remained relatively pristine and insular, with few species introductions, whereas Juan de Nova Island has had many species introductions, including predators and competitors of rats, anthropogenically increasing its trophic complexity. In the most insular environments, the island syndrome is expected to generate increases in body size and densities of rodents but decreases in the rates of reproduction and population cycling. Morphology and reproduction were compared using linear regression and canonical discriminant analysis, while density and population cycling were compared using spatially explicit capture-recapture analysis. Results were compared to other insular black rat populations in the Mozambique Channel and were consistent with predictions from the island syndrome. The manifestation of an island syndrome in rodents depends upon the trophic composition of a community, and may not relate to island size alone when many species additions, such as invasions, have occurred. The differing patterns of rodent population dynamics on each island provide information for future rodent eradication operations. PMID:21643994

  14. Global climate drives southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Leaper, Russell; Cooke, Justin; Trathan, Phil; Reid, Keith; Rowntree, Victoria; Payne, Roger

    2006-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series from the southwest Atlantic and the El Niño 4 region in the western Pacific were compared to an index of annual calving success of the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) breeding in Argentina. There was a strong relationship between right whale calving output and SST anomalies at South Georgia in the autumn of the previous year and also with mean El Niño 4 SST anomalies delayed by 6 years. These results extend similar observations from other krill predators and show clear linkages between global climate signals and the biological processes affecting whale population dynamics. PMID:17148385

  15. A Stochastic Super-Exponential Growth Model for Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avila, P.; Rekker, A.

    2010-11-01

    A super-exponential growth model with environmental noise has been studied analytically. Super-exponential growth rate is a property of dynamical systems exhibiting endogenous nonlinear positive feedback, i.e., of self-reinforcing systems. Environmental noise acts on the growth rate multiplicatively and is assumed to be Gaussian white noise in the Stratonovich interpretation. An analysis of the stochastic super-exponential growth model with derivations of exact analytical formulae for the conditional probability density and the mean value of the population abundance are presented. Interpretations and various applications of the results are discussed.

  16. Front acceleration by dynamic selection in Fisher population waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bénichou, O.; Calvez, V.; Meunier, N.; Voituriez, R.

    2012-10-01

    We introduce a minimal model of population range expansion in which the phenotypes of individuals present no selective advantage and differ only in their diffusion rate. We show that such neutral phenotypic variability (i.e., that does not modify the growth rate) alone can yield phenotype segregation at the front edge, even in absence of genetic noise, and significantly impact the dynamical properties of the expansion wave. We present an exact asymptotic traveling wave solution and show analytically that phenotype segregation accelerates the front propagation. The results are compatible with field observations such as invasions of cane toads in Australia or bush crickets in Britain.

  17. Periodically varying externally imposed environmental effects on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, M.; Kenkre, V. M.; Kuperman, M. N.

    2004-09-01

    Effects of externally imposed periodic changes in the environment on population dynamics are studied with the help of a simple model. The environmental changes are represented by the temporal and spatial dependence of the competition terms in a standard equation of evolution. Possible applications of the analysis are on the one hand to bacteria in Petri dishes and on the other to rodents in the context of the spread of the Hantavirus epidemic. The analysis shows that spatiotemporal structures emerge, with interesting features which depend on the interplay of separately controllable aspects of the externally imposed environmental changes.

  18. Evolution of the Known Centaurs Population - Dynamical and Thermal Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarid, Gal

    2010-10-01

    The structural and thermal evolution of small Solar system bodies may be strongly dependent on their dynamical history and environment. Objects on planet-crossing orbits are prone to gravitational perturbations that de-stabilize their orbits. Such are the Centaurs, which are the transient population, between the relatively stable trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and the short-lived Jupiter family Comets (JFCs). This may indicate that these objects experience intermediate levels of internal processing, at different periods of their lives. Examining the evolution of several these Centaur objects, both in orbital and physical parameters, can help categorize the different states and origin and evolution scenarios in the outer Solar system. Determining the dynamical evolution of each object is achieved through statistical analysis of the results of multiple N-body integrations. This is achieved by using many clones of specific objects, with known orbital elements. Statistics of large clone samples of specific objects yield valuable information about their current states and future fates. Specifically, and with greater importance to thermal evolution, we focus on the dynamical lifetimes, survivability and mean orbital elements. The latter are considered during the relatively stable and non-diffusive phase of orbital evolution. Profiles of temperature, structure and composition are calculated utilizing our robust thermal evolution code several specific objects, which represent slightly varying dynamical groups, and for different orbits of the same object, which represent specific orbital evolution pathways. This has an influence on the internal stratified structure, through an adapting thermal response of the nucleus.

  19. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    PubMed

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations. PMID:19100585

  20. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    PubMed

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations.

  1. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  2. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  3. Allele dynamics plots for the study of evolutionary dynamics in viral populations

    PubMed Central

    Steinbrück, Lars; McHardy, Alice Carolyn

    2011-01-01

    Phylodynamic techniques combine epidemiological and genetic information to analyze the evolutionary and spatiotemporal dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens, such as influenza A or human immunodeficiency viruses. We introduce ‘allele dynamics plots’ (AD plots) as a method for visualizing the evolutionary dynamics of a gene in a population. Using AD plots, we propose how to identify the alleles that are likely to be subject to directional selection. We analyze the method’s merits with a detailed study of the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza A viruses. AD plots for the major surface protein of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) and the 2009 swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) viruses show the succession of substitutions that became fixed in the evolution of the two viral populations. They also allow the early identification of those viral strains that later rise to predominance, which is important for the problem of vaccine strain selection. In summary, we describe a technique that reveals the evolutionary dynamics of a rapidly evolving population and allows us to identify alleles and associated genetic changes that might be under directional selection. The method can be applied for the study of influenza A viruses and other rapidly evolving species or viruses. PMID:20959296

  4. Long-term effective population size dynamics of an intensively monitored vertebrate population.

    PubMed

    Mueller, A-K; Chakarov, N; Krüger, O; Hoffman, J I

    2016-10-01

    Long-term genetic data from intensively monitored natural populations are important for understanding how effective population sizes (Ne) can vary over time. We therefore genotyped 1622 common buzzard (Buteo buteo) chicks sampled over 12 consecutive years (2002-2013 inclusive) at 15 microsatellite loci. This data set allowed us to both compare single-sample with temporal approaches and explore temporal patterns in the effective number of parents that produced each cohort in relation to the observed population dynamics. We found reasonable consistency between linkage disequilibrium-based single-sample and temporal estimators, particularly during the latter half of the study, but no clear relationship between annual Ne estimates () and census sizes. We also documented a 14-fold increase in between 2008 and 2011, a period during which the census size doubled, probably reflecting a combination of higher adult survival and immigration from further afield. Our study thus reveals appreciable temporal heterogeneity in the effective population size of a natural vertebrate population, confirms the need for long-term studies and cautions against drawing conclusions from a single sample. PMID:27553455

  5. [Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

    PubMed

    Burskiĭ, O V; Demidova, E Iu; Morkovin, A A

    2014-01-01

    We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices.

  6. [Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

    PubMed

    Burskiĭ, O V; Demidova, E Iu; Morkovin, A A

    2014-01-01

    We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices. PMID:25786310

  7. Inferring network dynamics and neuron properties from population recordings.

    PubMed

    Linaro, Daniele; Storace, Marco; Mattia, Maurizio

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the computational capabilities of the nervous system means to "identify" its emergent multiscale dynamics. For this purpose, we propose a novel model-driven identification procedure and apply it to sparsely connected populations of excitatory integrate-and-fire neurons with spike frequency adaptation (SFA). Our method does not characterize the system from its microscopic elements in a bottom-up fashion, and does not resort to any linearization. We investigate networks as a whole, inferring their properties from the response dynamics of the instantaneous discharge rate to brief and aspecific supra-threshold stimulations. While several available methods assume generic expressions for the system as a black box, we adopt a mean-field theory for the evolution of the network transparently parameterized by identified elements (such as dynamic timescales), which are in turn non-trivially related to single-neuron properties. In particular, from the elicited transient responses, the input-output gain function of the neurons in the network is extracted and direct links to the microscopic level are made available: indeed, we show how to extract the decay time constant of the SFA, the absolute refractory period and the average synaptic efficacy. In addition and contrary to previous attempts, our method captures the system dynamics across bifurcations separating qualitatively different dynamical regimes. The robustness and the generality of the methodology is tested on controlled simulations, reporting a good agreement between theoretically expected and identified values. The assumptions behind the underlying theoretical framework make the method readily applicable to biological preparations like cultured neuron networks and in vitro brain slices. PMID:22016731

  8. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  9. Artificial nighttime light changes aphid-parasitoid population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Sanders, Dirk; Kehoe, Rachel; Tiley, Katie; Bennie, Jonathan; Cruse, Dave; Davies, Thomas W.; Frank van Veen, F. J.; Gaston, Kevin J.

    2015-01-01

    Artificial light at night (ALAN) is recognized as a widespread and increasingly important anthropogenic environmental pressure on wild species and their interactions. Understanding of how these impacts translate into changes in population dynamics of communities with multiple trophic levels is, however, severely lacking. In an outdoor mesocosm experiment we tested the effect of ALAN on the population dynamics of a plant-aphid-parasitoid community with one plant species, three aphid species and their specialist parasitoids. The light treatment reduced the abundance of two aphid species by 20% over five generations, most likely as a consequence of bottom-up effects, with reductions in bean plant biomass being observed. For the aphid Megoura viciae this effect was reversed under autumn conditions with the light treatment promoting continuous reproduction through asexuals. All three parasitoid species were negatively affected by the light treatment, through reduced host numbers and we discuss induced possible behavioural changes. These results suggest that, in addition to direct impacts on species behaviour, the impacts of ALAN can cascade through food webs with potentially far reaching effects on the wider ecosystem. PMID:26472251

  10. Artificial nighttime light changes aphid-parasitoid population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Dirk; Kehoe, Rachel; Tiley, Katie; Bennie, Jonathan; Cruse, Dave; Davies, Thomas W; Frank van Veen, F J; Gaston, Kevin J

    2015-10-16

    Artificial light at night (ALAN) is recognized as a widespread and increasingly important anthropogenic environmental pressure on wild species and their interactions. Understanding of how these impacts translate into changes in population dynamics of communities with multiple trophic levels is, however, severely lacking. In an outdoor mesocosm experiment we tested the effect of ALAN on the population dynamics of a plant-aphid-parasitoid community with one plant species, three aphid species and their specialist parasitoids. The light treatment reduced the abundance of two aphid species by 20% over five generations, most likely as a consequence of bottom-up effects, with reductions in bean plant biomass being observed. For the aphid Megoura viciae this effect was reversed under autumn conditions with the light treatment promoting continuous reproduction through asexuals. All three parasitoid species were negatively affected by the light treatment, through reduced host numbers and we discuss induced possible behavioural changes. These results suggest that, in addition to direct impacts on species behaviour, the impacts of ALAN can cascade through food webs with potentially far reaching effects on the wider ecosystem.

  11. Population dynamics of microbial communities in the zebrafish gut

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jemielita, Matthew; Taormina, Michael; Burns, Adam; Hampton, Jennifer; Rolig, Annah; Wiles, Travis; Guillemin, Karen; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer

    2015-03-01

    The vertebrate intestine is home to a diverse microbial community, which plays a crucial role in the development and health of its host. Little is known about the population dynamics and spatial structure of this ecosystem, including mechanisms of growth and interactions between species. We have constructed an experimental model system with which to explore these issues, using initially germ-free larval zebrafish inoculated with defined communities of fluorescently tagged bacteria. Using light sheet fluorescence microscopy combined with computational image analysis we observe and quantify the entire bacterial community of the intestine during the first 24 hours of colonization, during which time the bacterial population grows from tens to tens of thousands of bacteria. We identify both individual bacteria and clusters of bacteria, and quantify the growth rate and spatial distribution of these distinct subpopulations. We find that clusters of bacteria grow considerably faster than individuals and are located in specific regions of the intestine. Imaging colonization by two species reveals spatial segregation and competition. These data and their analysis highlight the importance of spatial organization in the establishment of gut microbial communities, and can provide inputs to physical models of real-world ecological dynamics.

  12. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-11-01

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

  13. Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

    PubMed

    Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

    2015-11-01

    Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be

  14. [Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

    PubMed

    Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

    2015-01-01

    The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics. PMID:26201216

  15. [Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

    PubMed

    Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

    2015-01-01

    The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

  16. Parsimonious snow model explains reindeer population dynamics and ranging behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, J.; Aanes, R.; Hansen, B. B.; Loe, L.; Severinsen, T.; Stien, A.

    2008-12-01

    Winter snow is a key factor affecting polar ecosystems. One example is the strong negative correlation of winter precipitation with fluctuations in population in some high-arctic animal populations. Ice layers within and at the base of the snowpack have particularly deleterious effects on such populations. Svalbard reindeer have small home ranges and are vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are locked, reindeer are faced with the decision of staying, living off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice. Both strategies may inhibit reproduction and increase mortality, leading to population declines. Here we assess the impact of winter snow and ice on the population dynamics of an isolated herd of Svalbard reindeer near Ny-Ålesund, monitored annually since 1978, with a retrospective analysis of the winter snowpack. Because there are no long-term observational records of snow or snow properties, such as ice layers, we must recourse to snowpack modeling. A parsimonious model of snow and ground-ice thickness is driven with daily temperature and precipitation data collected at a nearby weather station. The model uses the degree-day concept and has three adjustable parameters which are tuned to correlate model snow and ground-ice thicknesses to the limited observations available: April snow accumulation measurements on two local glaciers, and a limited number of ground-ice observations made in recent years. Parameter values used are comparable to those reported elsewhere. We find that modeled mean winter ground-ice thickness explains a significant percentage of the observed variance in reindeer population growth rate. Adding other explanatory parameters, such as modeled mean winter snowpack thickness or previous years' population size does not significanly improve the relation. Furthermore, positioning data from a small subset of reindeer show that model icing events are

  17. Population dynamics determine genetic adaptation to temperature in Daphnia.

    PubMed

    Van Doorslaer, Wendy; Stoks, Robby; Duvivier, Cathy; Bednarska, Anna; De Meester, Luc

    2009-07-01

    Rising temperatures associated with global warming present a challenge to the fate of many aquatic organisms. Although rapid evolutionary response to temperature-mediated selection may allow local persistence of populations under global warming, and therefore is a key aspect of evolutionary biology, solid proof of its occurrence is rare. In this study, we tested for genetic adaptation to an increase in temperature in the water flea Daphnia magna, a keystone species in freshwater systems, by performing a thermal selection experiment under laboratory conditions followed by the quantification of microevolutionary responses to temperature for both life-history traits as well as for intraspecific competitive strength. After three months of selection, we found a microevolutionary response to temperature in performance, but only in one of two culling regimes, highlighting the importance of population dynamics in driving microevolutionary change within populations. Furthermore, there was an evolutionary increase in thermal plasticity in performance. The results of the competition experiment were in agreement with predictions based on performance as quantified in the life table experiment and illustrate that microevolution within a short time frame has the ability to influence the outcome of intraspecific competition.

  18. Population Dynamics of Excited Atoms in Dissipative Cavities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Hong-Mei; Liu, Yu; Fang, Mao-Fa

    2016-10-01

    Population dynamics of excited atoms in dissipative cavities is investigated in this work. We present a method of controlling populations of excited atoms in dissipative cavities. For the initial state | e e> A B |00> a b , the repopulation of excited atoms can be obtained by using atom-cavity couplings and non-Markovian effects after the atomic excited energy decays to zero. For the initial state | g g> A B |11> a b , the two atoms can also be populated to the excited states from the initial ground states by using atom-cavity couplings and non-Markovian effects. And the stronger the atom-cavity coupling or the non-Markovian effect is, the larger the number of repopulation of excited atoms is. Particularly, when the atom-cavity coupling or the non-Markovian effect is very strong, the number of repopulation of excited atoms can be close to one in a short time and will tend to a steady value in a long time.

  19. Population dynamics of islet-infiltrating cells in autoimmune diabetes.

    PubMed

    Magnuson, Angela M; Thurber, Greg M; Kohler, Rainer H; Weissleder, Ralph; Mathis, Diane; Benoist, Christophe

    2015-02-01

    Type-1 diabetes in the nonobese diabetic (NOD) mouse starts with an insulitis stage, wherein a mixed population of leukocytes invades the pancreas, followed by overt diabetes once enough insulin-producing β-cells are destroyed by invading immunocytes. Little is known of the dynamics of lymphocyte movement into the pancreas during disease progression. We used the Kaede transgenic mouse, whose photoconvertible fluorescent reporter permits noninvasive labeling and subsequent tracking of immunocytes, to investigate pancreatic infiltrate dynamics and the requirement for antigen specificity during progression of autoimmune diabetes in the unmanipulated NOD mouse. Our results indicate that the insulitic lesion is very open with constant cell influx and active turnover, predominantly of B and T lymphocytes, but also CD11b(+)c(+) myeloid cells. Both naïve- and memory-phenotype lymphocytes trafficked to the insulitis, but Foxp3(+) regulatory T cells circulated less than their conventional CD4(+) counterparts. Receptor specificity for pancreatic antigens seemed irrelevant for this homing, because similar kinetics were observed in polyclonal and antigen-specific transgenic contexts. This "open" configuration was also observed after reversal of overt diabetes by anti-CD3 treatment. These results portray insulitis as a dynamic lesion at all stages of disease, continuously fed by a mixed influx of immunocytes, and thus susceptible to evolve over time in response to immunologic or environmental influences. PMID:25605891

  20. Population dynamics of islet-infiltrating cells in autoimmune diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Magnuson, Angela M.; Thurber, Greg M.; Kohler, Rainer H.; Weissleder, Ralph; Mathis, Diane; Benoist, Christophe

    2015-01-01

    Type-1 diabetes in the nonobese diabetic (NOD) mouse starts with an insulitis stage, wherein a mixed population of leukocytes invades the pancreas, followed by overt diabetes once enough insulin-producing β-cells are destroyed by invading immunocytes. Little is known of the dynamics of lymphocyte movement into the pancreas during disease progression. We used the Kaede transgenic mouse, whose photoconvertible fluorescent reporter permits noninvasive labeling and subsequent tracking of immunocytes, to investigate pancreatic infiltrate dynamics and the requirement for antigen specificity during progression of autoimmune diabetes in the unmanipulated NOD mouse. Our results indicate that the insulitic lesion is very open with constant cell influx and active turnover, predominantly of B and T lymphocytes, but also CD11b+c+ myeloid cells. Both naïve- and memory-phenotype lymphocytes trafficked to the insulitis, but Foxp3+ regulatory T cells circulated less than their conventional CD4+ counterparts. Receptor specificity for pancreatic antigens seemed irrelevant for this homing, because similar kinetics were observed in polyclonal and antigen-specific transgenic contexts. This “open” configuration was also observed after reversal of overt diabetes by anti-CD3 treatment. These results portray insulitis as a dynamic lesion at all stages of disease, continuously fed by a mixed influx of immunocytes, and thus susceptible to evolve over time in response to immunologic or environmental influences. PMID:25605891

  1. Modelling food and population dynamics in honey bee colonies.

    PubMed

    Khoury, David S; Barron, Andrew B; Myerscough, Mary R

    2013-01-01

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are increasingly in demand as pollinators for various key agricultural food crops, but globally honey bee populations are in decline, and honey bee colony failure rates have increased. This scenario highlights a need to understand the conditions in which colonies flourish and in which colonies fail. To aid this investigation we present a compartment model of bee population dynamics to explore how food availability and bee death rates interact to determine colony growth and development. Our model uses simple differential equations to represent the transitions of eggs laid by the queen to brood, then hive bees and finally forager bees, and the process of social inhibition that regulates the rate at which hive bees begin to forage. We assume that food availability can influence both the number of brood successfully reared to adulthood and the rate at which bees transition from hive duties to foraging. The model predicts complex interactions between food availability and forager death rates in shaping colony fate. Low death rates and high food availability results in stable bee populations at equilibrium (with population size strongly determined by forager death rate) but consistently increasing food reserves. At higher death rates food stores in a colony settle at a finite equilibrium reflecting the balance of food collection and food use. When forager death rates exceed a critical threshold the colony fails but residual food remains. Our model presents a simple mathematical framework for exploring the interactions of food and forager mortality on colony fate, and provides the mathematical basis for more involved simulation models of hive performance. PMID:23667418

  2. Modelling Food and Population Dynamics in Honey Bee Colonies

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Barron, Andrew B.; Myerscough, Mary R.

    2013-01-01

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are increasingly in demand as pollinators for various key agricultural food crops, but globally honey bee populations are in decline, and honey bee colony failure rates have increased. This scenario highlights a need to understand the conditions in which colonies flourish and in which colonies fail. To aid this investigation we present a compartment model of bee population dynamics to explore how food availability and bee death rates interact to determine colony growth and development. Our model uses simple differential equations to represent the transitions of eggs laid by the queen to brood, then hive bees and finally forager bees, and the process of social inhibition that regulates the rate at which hive bees begin to forage. We assume that food availability can influence both the number of brood successfully reared to adulthood and the rate at which bees transition from hive duties to foraging. The model predicts complex interactions between food availability and forager death rates in shaping colony fate. Low death rates and high food availability results in stable bee populations at equilibrium (with population size strongly determined by forager death rate) but consistently increasing food reserves. At higher death rates food stores in a colony settle at a finite equilibrium reflecting the balance of food collection and food use. When forager death rates exceed a critical threshold the colony fails but residual food remains. Our model presents a simple mathematical framework for exploring the interactions of food and forager mortality on colony fate, and provides the mathematical basis for more involved simulation models of hive performance. PMID:23667418

  3. Plasmodium vivax population structure and transmission dynamics in Sabah Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A (S) >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A (S)  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A (S) = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for

  4. Zooplankton interactions with toxic phytoplankton: Some implications for food web studies and algal defence strategies of feeding selectivity behaviour, toxin dilution and phytoplankton population diversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barreiro, A.; Guisande, C.; Maneiro, I.; Vergara, A. R.; Riveiro, I.; Iglesias, P.

    2007-11-01

    This study focuses on the interactions between toxic phytoplankton and zooplankton grazers. The experimental conditions used are an attempt to simulate situations that have, so far, received little attention. We presume the phytoplankton community to be a set of species where a population of a toxic species is intrinsically diverse by the presence of coexisting strains with different toxic properties. The other species in the community may not always be high-quality food for herbivorous zooplankton. Zooplankton populations may have developed adaptive responses to sympatric toxic phytoplankton species. Zooplankton grazers may perform a specific feeding behaviour and its consequences on fitness will depend on the species ingested, the effect of toxins, and the presence of mechanisms of toxin dilution and compensatory feeding. Our target species are a strain of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum and a sympatric population of the copepod Acartia clausi. Mixed diets were used with two kinds of A. minutum cells: non-toxic and toxic. The flagellate Rhodomonas baltica and the non-toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamarense were added as accompanying species. The effect of each alga was studied in separate diets. The toxic A. minutum cells were shown to have negative effects on egg production, hatching success and total reproductive output, while, in terms of its effect on fitness, the non-toxic A. minutum was the best quality food offered. R. baltica and A. tamarense were in intermediate positions. In the mixed diets, copepods showed a strong preference for toxic A. minutum cells and a weaker one for A. tamarense cells, while non-toxic A. minutum was slightly negatively selected and R. baltica strongly negatively selected. Although the level of toxins accumulated by copepods was very similar, in both the diet with only toxic A. minutum cells and in the mixed diet, the negative effects on fitness in the mixed diet could be offset by toxin dilution mechanisms. The

  5. Study of a mixed dispersal population dynamics model

    SciTech Connect

    Chugunova, Marina; Jadamba, Baasansuren; Kao, Chiu -Yen; Klymko, Christine F.; Thomas, Evelyn; Zhao, Bingyu

    2015-07-10

    In this study, we consider a mixed dispersal model with periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions and its corresponding linear eigenvalue problem. This model describes the time evolution of a population which disperses both locally and non-locally. We investigate how long time dynamics depend on the parameter values. Furthermore, we study the minimization of the principal eigenvalue under the constraints that the resource function is bounded from above and below, and with a fixed total integral. Biologically, this minimization problem is motivated by the question of determining the optimal spatial arrangement of favorable and unfavorable regions for the species to die out more slowly or survive more easily. Our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal favorable region tends to be a simply-connected domain. Numerous results are shown to demonstrate various scenarios of optimal favorable regions for periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions.

  6. Study of a mixed dispersal population dynamics model

    DOE PAGES

    Chugunova, Marina; Jadamba, Baasansuren; Kao, Chiu -Yen; Klymko, Christine F.; Thomas, Evelyn; Zhao, Bingyu

    2016-08-27

    In this study, we consider a mixed dispersal model with periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions and its corresponding linear eigenvalue problem. This model describes the time evolution of a population which disperses both locally and non-locally. We investigate how long time dynamics depend on the parameter values. Furthermore, we study the minimization of the principal eigenvalue under the constraints that the resource function is bounded from above and below, and with a fixed total integral. Biologically, this minimization problem is motivated by the question of determining the optimal spatial arrangement of favorable and unfavorable regions for the species to diemore » out more slowly or survive more easily. Our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal favorable region tends to be a simply-connected domain. Numerous results are shown to demonstrate various scenarios of optimal favorable regions for periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions.« less

  7. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M

    2014-06-01

    Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

  8. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished.

  9. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished. PMID:25112794

  10. Wave trains in a model of gypsy moth population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilder, J. W.; Vasquez, D. A.; Christie, I.; Colbert, J. J.

    1995-12-01

    A recent model of gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)] populations led to the observation of traveling waves in a one-dimensional spatial model. In this work, these waves are studied in more detail and their nature investigated. It was observed that when there are no spatial effects the model behaves chaotically under certain conditions. Under the same conditions, when diffusion is allowed, traveling waves develop. The biomass densities involved in the model, when examined at one point in the spatial domain, are found to correspond to a limit cycle lying on the surface of the chaotic attractor of the spatially homogeneous model. Also observed are wave trains that have modulating maxima, and which when examined at one point in the spatial domain show a quasiperiodic temporal behavior. This complex behavior is determined to be due to the interaction of the traveling wave and the chaotic background dynamics.

  11. Building dynamic population graph for accurate correspondence detection.

    PubMed

    Du, Shaoyi; Guo, Yanrong; Sanroma, Gerard; Ni, Dong; Wu, Guorong; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-12-01

    In medical imaging studies, there is an increasing trend for discovering the intrinsic anatomical difference across individual subjects in a dataset, such as hand images for skeletal bone age estimation. Pair-wise matching is often used to detect correspondences between each individual subject and a pre-selected model image with manually-placed landmarks. However, the large anatomical variability across individual subjects can easily compromise such pair-wise matching step. In this paper, we present a new framework to simultaneously detect correspondences among a population of individual subjects, by propagating all manually-placed landmarks from a small set of model images through a dynamically constructed image graph. Specifically, we first establish graph links between models and individual subjects according to pair-wise shape similarity (called as forward step). Next, we detect correspondences for the individual subjects with direct links to any of model images, which is achieved by a new multi-model correspondence detection approach based on our recently-published sparse point matching method. To correct those inaccurate correspondences, we further apply an error detection mechanism to automatically detect wrong correspondences and then update the image graph accordingly (called as backward step). After that, all subject images with detected correspondences are included into the set of model images, and the above two steps of graph expansion and error correction are repeated until accurate correspondences for all subject images are established. Evaluations on real hand X-ray images demonstrate that our proposed method using a dynamic graph construction approach can achieve much higher accuracy and robustness, when compared with the state-of-the-art pair-wise correspondence detection methods as well as a similar method but using static population graph.

  12. Algal Biofuels; Algal Biofuels R&D at NREL (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2010-09-01

    An overview of NREL's algal biofuels projects, including U.S. Department of Energy-funded work, projects with U.S. and international partners, and Laboratory Directed Research and Development projects.

  13. Sensory dynamics of visual hallucinations in the normal population

    PubMed Central

    Pearson, Joel; Chiou, Rocco; Rogers, Sebastian; Wicken, Marcus; Heitmann, Stewart; Ermentrout, Bard

    2016-01-01

    Hallucinations occur in both normal and clinical populations. Due to their unpredictability and complexity, the mechanisms underlying hallucinations remain largely untested. Here we show that visual hallucinations can be induced in the normal population by visual flicker, limited to an annulus that constricts content complexity to simple moving grey blobs, allowing objective mechanistic investigation. Hallucination strength peaked at ~11 Hz flicker and was dependent on cortical processing. Hallucinated motion speed increased with flicker rate, when mapped onto visual cortex it was independent of eccentricity, underwent local sensory adaptation and showed the same bistable and mnemonic dynamics as sensory perception. A neural field model with motion selectivity provides a mechanism for both hallucinations and perception. Our results demonstrate that hallucinations can be studied objectively, and they share multiple mechanisms with sensory perception. We anticipate that this assay will be critical to test theories of human consciousness and clinical models of hallucination. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.17072.001 PMID:27726845

  14. Far from random: dynamical groupings among the NEO population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de la Fuente Marcos, C.; de la Fuente Marcos, R.

    2016-03-01

    Among the near-Earth object (NEO) population, there are comets and active asteroids which are sources of fragments that initially move together; in addition, some NEOs follow orbits temporarily trapped in a web of secular resonances. These facts contribute to increasing the risk of meteoroid strikes on Earth, making its proper quantification difficult. The identification and subsequent study of groups of small NEOs that appear to move in similar trajectories are necessary steps in improving our understanding of the impact risk associated with meteoroids. Here, we present results of a search for statistically significant dynamical groupings among the NEO population. Our Monte Carlo-based methodology recovers well-documented groupings like the Taurid Complex or the one resulting from the split comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, and new ones that may have been the source of past impacts. Among the most conspicuous are the Mjolnir and Ptah groups, perhaps the source of recent impact events like Almahata Sitta and Chelyabinsk, respectively. Meteoroid 2014 AA, that hit the Earth on 2014 January 2, could have its origin in a marginally significant grouping associated with Bennu. We find that most of the substructure present within the orbital domain of the NEOs is of resonant nature, probably induced by secular resonances and the Kozai mechanism that confine these objects into specific paths with well-defined perihelia.

  15. Pathogen population dynamics in agricultural landscapes: the Ddal modelling framework.

    PubMed

    Papaïx, Julien; Adamczyk-Chauvat, Katarzyna; Bouvier, Annie; Kiêu, Kiên; Touzeau, Suzanne; Lannou, Christian; Monod, Hervé

    2014-10-01

    Modelling processes that occur at the landscape scale is gaining more and more attention from theoretical ecologists to agricultural managers. Most of the approaches found in the literature lack applicability for managers or, on the opposite, lack a sound theoretical basis. Based on the metapopulation concept, we propose here a modelling approach for landscape epidemiology that takes advantage of theoretical results developed in the metapopulation context while considering realistic landscapes structures. A landscape simulator makes it possible to represent both the field pattern and the spatial distribution of crops. The pathogen population dynamics are then described through a matrix population model both stage- and space-structured. In addition to a classical invasion analysis we present a stochastic simulation experiment and provide a complete framework for performing a sensitivity analysis integrating the landscape as an input factor. We illustrate our approach using an example to evaluate whether the agricultural landscape composition and structure may prevent and mitigate the development of an epidemic. Although designed for a fungal foliar disease, our modelling approach is easily adaptable to other organisms.

  16. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery

    PubMed Central

    McElreath, Richard; Smaldino, Paul E.

    2015-01-01

    Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts—suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics. PMID:26308448

  17. Seasonal and annual dynamics of harmful algae and algal toxins revealed through weekly monitoring at two coastal ocean sites off southern California, USA.

    PubMed

    Seubert, Erica L; Gellene, Alyssa G; Howard, Meredith D A; Connell, Paige; Ragan, Matthew; Jones, Burton H; Runyan, Jennifer; Caron, David A

    2013-10-01

    Reports of toxic harmful algal blooms (HABs) attributed to the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia spp. have been increasing in California during the last several decades. Whether this increase can be attributed to enhanced awareness and monitoring or to a dramatic upswing in the development of HAB events remains unresolved. Given these uncertainties, the ability to accurately and rapidly identify an emerging HAB event is of high importance. Monitoring of HAB species and other pertinent chemical/physical parameters at two piers in southern California, Newport and Redondo Beach, was used to investigate the development of a site-specific bloom definition for identifying emerging domoic acid (DA) events. Emphasis was given to abundances of the Pseudo-nitzschia seriata size category of Pseudo-nitzschia due to the prevalence of this size class in the region. P. seriata bloom thresholds were established for each location based on deviations from their respective long-term mean abundances, allowing the identification of major and minor blooms. Sixty-five percent of blooms identified at Newport Beach coincided with measurable DA concentrations, while 36 % of blooms at Redondo Beach coincided with measurable DA. Bloom definitions allowed for increased specificity in multiple regression analysis of environmental forcing factors significant to the presence of DA and P. seriata. The strongest relationship identified was between P. seriata abundances 2 weeks following upwelling events at Newport Beach.

  18. Seasonal and annual dynamics of harmful algae and algal toxins revealed through weekly monitoring at two coastal ocean sites off southern California, USA.

    PubMed

    Seubert, Erica L; Gellene, Alyssa G; Howard, Meredith D A; Connell, Paige; Ragan, Matthew; Jones, Burton H; Runyan, Jennifer; Caron, David A

    2013-10-01

    Reports of toxic harmful algal blooms (HABs) attributed to the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia spp. have been increasing in California during the last several decades. Whether this increase can be attributed to enhanced awareness and monitoring or to a dramatic upswing in the development of HAB events remains unresolved. Given these uncertainties, the ability to accurately and rapidly identify an emerging HAB event is of high importance. Monitoring of HAB species and other pertinent chemical/physical parameters at two piers in southern California, Newport and Redondo Beach, was used to investigate the development of a site-specific bloom definition for identifying emerging domoic acid (DA) events. Emphasis was given to abundances of the Pseudo-nitzschia seriata size category of Pseudo-nitzschia due to the prevalence of this size class in the region. P. seriata bloom thresholds were established for each location based on deviations from their respective long-term mean abundances, allowing the identification of major and minor blooms. Sixty-five percent of blooms identified at Newport Beach coincided with measurable DA concentrations, while 36 % of blooms at Redondo Beach coincided with measurable DA. Bloom definitions allowed for increased specificity in multiple regression analysis of environmental forcing factors significant to the presence of DA and P. seriata. The strongest relationship identified was between P. seriata abundances 2 weeks following upwelling events at Newport Beach. PMID:23288675

  19. Modelling Multi-Pulse Population Dynamics from Ultrafast Spectroscopy

    PubMed Central

    van Wilderen, Luuk J. G. W.; Lincoln, Craig N.; van Thor, Jasper J.

    2011-01-01

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  20. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the Baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation.

    PubMed

    Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Eero, Margit; Blenckner, Thorsten; Tomczak, Maciej T; Niiranen, Susa

    2012-09-01

    Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.

  1. Dynamical evolution and spatial mixing of multiple population globular clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesperini, Enrico; McMillan, Stephen L. W.; D'Antona, Francesca; D'Ercole, Annibale

    2013-03-01

    Numerous spectroscopic and photometric observational studies have provided strong evidence for the widespread presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. In this paper, we study the long-term dynamical evolution of multiple population clusters, focusing on the evolution of the spatial distributions of the first- (FG) and second-generation (SG) stars. In previous studies, we have suggested that SG stars formed from the ejecta of FG AGB stars are expected initially to be concentrated in the cluster inner regions. Here, by means of N-body simulations, we explore the time-scales and the dynamics of the spatial mixing of the FG and the SG populations and their dependence on the SG initial concentration. Our simulations show that, as the evolution proceeds, the radial profile of the SG/FG number ratio, NSG/NFG, is characterized by three regions: (1) a flat inner part; (2) a declining part in which FG stars are increasingly dominant and (3) an outer region where the NSG/NFG profile flattens again (the NSG/NFG profile may rise slightly again in the outermost cluster regions). Until mixing is complete and the NSG/NFG profile is flat over the entire cluster, the radial variation of NSG/NFG implies that the fraction of SG stars determined by observations covering a limited range of radial distances is not, in general, equal to the SG global fraction, (NSG/NFG)glob. The distance at which NSG/NFG equals (NSG/NFG)glob is approximately between 1 and 2 cluster half-mass radii. The time-scale for complete mixing depends on the SG initial concentration, but in all cases complete mixing is expected only for clusters in advanced evolutionary phases, having lost at least 60-70 per cent of their mass due to two-body relaxation (in addition to the early FG loss due to the cluster expansion triggered by SNII ejecta and gas expulsion).The results of our simulations suggest that in many Galactic globular clusters the SG should still be more spatially concentrated than the

  2. Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

    PubMed

    Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

    2015-11-01

    Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be

  3. Dynamics of Populations of Planetary Systems (IAU C197)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knezevic, Zoran; Milani, Andrea

    2005-05-01

    population of asteroids in the 2:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter revised Miroslav Broz, D. Vokrouhlicky, F. Roig, D. Nesvorny, W. F. Bottke and A. Morbidelli; 22. On the reliability of computation of maximum Lyapunov Characteristic Exponents for asteroids Zoran Knezevic and Slobodan Ninkovic; 23. Nekhoroshev stability estimates for different models of the Trojan asteroids Christos Efthymiopoulos; 24. The role of the resonant 'stickiness' in the dynamical evolution of Jupiter family comets A. Alvarez-Canda and F. Roig; 25. Regimes of stability and scaling relations for the removal time in the asteroid belt: a simple kinetic model and numerical tests Mihailo Cubrovic; 26. Virtual asteroids and virtual impactors Andrea Milani; 27. Asteroid population models Alessandro Morbidelli; 28. Linking Very Large Telescope asteroid observations M. Granvik, K. Muinonen, J. Virtanen, M. Delbó, L. Saba, G. De Sanctis, R. Morbidelli, A. Cellino and E. Tedesco; 29. Collision orbits and phase transition for 2004 AS1 at discovery Jenni Virtanen, K. Muinonen, M. Granvik and T. Laakso; 30. The size of collision solutions in orbital elements space G. B. Valsecchi, A. Rossi, A. Milani and S. R. Chesley; 31. Very short arc orbit determination: the case of asteroid 2004 FU162 Steven R. Chesley; 32. Nonlinear impact monitoring: 2-dimensional sampling Giacomo Tommei; 33. Searching for gravity assisted trajectories to accessible near-Earth asteroids Stefan Berinde; 34. KLENOT - Near Earth and other unusual objects observations Michal Kocer, Jana Tichá and M. Tichy; 35. Transport of comets to the Inner Solar System Hans Rickman; 36. Nongravitational Accelerations on Comets Steven R. Chesley and Donald K. Yeomans; 37. Interaction of planetesimals with the giant planets and the shaping of the trans-Neptunian belt Harold F. Levison and Alessandro Morbidelli; 38. Transport of comets to the outer p

  4. Fueling Future with Algal Genomics

    SciTech Connect

    Grigoriev, Igor

    2012-07-05

    Algae constitute a major component of fundamental eukaryotic diversity, play profound roles in the carbon cycle, and are prominent candidates for biofuel production. The US Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute (JGI) is leading the world in algal genome sequencing (http://jgi.doe.gov/Algae) and contributes of the algal genome projects worldwide (GOLD database, 2012). The sequenced algal genomes offer catalogs of genes, networks, and pathways. The sequenced first of its kind genomes of a haptophyte E.huxleyii, chlorarachniophyte B.natans, and cryptophyte G.theta fill the gaps in the eukaryotic tree of life and carry unique genes and pathways as well as molecular fossils of secondary endosymbiosis. Natural adaptation to conditions critical for industrial production is encoded in algal genomes, for example, growth of A.anophagefferens at very high cell densities during the harmful algae blooms or a global distribution across diverse environments of E.huxleyii, able to live on sparse nutrients due to its expanded pan-genome. Communications and signaling pathways can be derived from simple symbiotic systems like lichens or complex marine algae metagenomes. Collectively these datasets derived from algal genomics contribute to building a comprehensive parts list essential for algal biofuel development.

  5. Environmental feedbacks and engineered nanoparticles: mitigation of silver nanoparticle toxicity to Chlamydomonas reinhardtii by algal-produced organic compounds.

    PubMed

    Stevenson, Louise M; Dickson, Helen; Klanjscek, Tin; Keller, Arturo A; McCauley, Edward; Nisbet, Roger M

    2013-01-01

    The vast majority of nanotoxicity studies measures the effect of exposure to a toxicant on an organism and ignores the potentially important effects of the organism on the toxicant. We investigated the effect of citrate-coated silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) on populations of the freshwater alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii at different phases of batch culture growth and show that the AgNPs are most toxic to cultures in the early phases of growth. We offer strong evidence that reduced toxicity occurs because extracellular dissolved organic carbon (DOC) compounds produced by the algal cells themselves mitigate the toxicity of AgNPs. We analyzed this feedback with a dynamic model incorporating algal growth, nanoparticle dissolution, bioaccumulation of silver, DOC production and DOC-mediated inactivation of nanoparticles and ionic silver. Our findings demonstrate how the feedback between aquatic organisms and their environment may impact the toxicity and ecological effects of engineered nanoparticles.

  6. Environmental Feedbacks and Engineered Nanoparticles: Mitigation of Silver Nanoparticle Toxicity to Chlamydomonas reinhardtii by Algal-Produced Organic Compounds

    PubMed Central

    Stevenson, Louise M.; Dickson, Helen; Klanjscek, Tin; Keller, Arturo A.; McCauley, Edward; Nisbet, Roger M.

    2013-01-01

    The vast majority of nanotoxicity studies measures the effect of exposure to a toxicant on an organism and ignores the potentially important effects of the organism on the toxicant. We investigated the effect of citrate-coated silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) on populations of the freshwater alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii at different phases of batch culture growth and show that the AgNPs are most toxic to cultures in the early phases of growth. We offer strong evidence that reduced toxicity occurs because extracellular dissolved organic carbon (DOC) compounds produced by the algal cells themselves mitigate the toxicity of AgNPs. We analyzed this feedback with a dynamic model incorporating algal growth, nanoparticle dissolution, bioaccumulation of silver, DOC production and DOC-mediated inactivation of nanoparticles and ionic silver. Our findings demonstrate how the feedback between aquatic organisms and their environment may impact the toxicity and ecological effects of engineered nanoparticles. PMID:24086348

  7. Cryptic Population Dynamics: Rapid Evolution Masks Trophic Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Yoshida, Takehito; Ellner, Stephen P; Jones, Laura E; Bohannan, Brendan J. M; Lenski, Richard E; Hairston, Nelson G

    2007-01-01

    Trophic relationships, such as those between predator and prey or between pathogen and host, are key interactions linking species in ecological food webs. The structure of these links and their strengths have major consequences for the dynamics and stability of food webs. The existence and strength of particular trophic links has often been assessed using observational data on changes in species abundance through time. Here we show that very strong links can be completely missed by these kinds of analyses when changes in population abundance are accompanied by contemporaneous rapid evolution in the prey or host species. Experimental observations, in rotifer-alga and phage-bacteria chemostats, show that the predator or pathogen can exhibit large-amplitude cycles while the abundance of the prey or host remains essentially constant. We know that the species are tightly linked in these experimental microcosms, but without this knowledge, we would infer from observed patterns in abundance that the species are weakly or not at all linked. Mathematical modeling shows that this kind of cryptic dynamics occurs when there is rapid prey or host evolution for traits conferring defense against attack, and the cost of defense (in terms of tradeoffs with other fitness components) is low. Several predictions of the theory that we developed to explain the rotifer-alga experiments are confirmed in the phage-bacteria experiments, where bacterial evolution could be tracked. Modeling suggests that rapid evolution may also confound experimental approaches to measuring interaction strength, but it identifies certain experimental designs as being more robust against potential confounding by rapid evolution. PMID:17803356

  8. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF AMBIENT AND ALTERED EARTHWORM COMMUNITIES IN ROW-CROP AGROECOSYSTEMS IN OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although earthworms are known to influence agroecosystem processes, there are relatively few long-term studies addressing population dynamics under cropping systems in which earthworm populations were intentionally altered. We assessed earthworm communities from fall 1994 to spr...

  9. Comparative Population Dynamics of Two Closely Related Species Differing in Ploidy Level

    PubMed Central

    Černá, Lucie; Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2013-01-01

    Background Many studies compare the population dynamics of single species within multiple habitat types, while much less is known about the differences in population dynamics in closely related species in the same habitat. Additionally, comparisons of the effect of habitat types and species are largely missing. Methodology and Principal Findings We estimated the importance of the habitat type and species for population dynamics of plants. Specifically, we compared the dynamics of two closely related species, the allotetraploid species Anthericum liliago and the diploid species Anthericum ramosum, occurring in the same habitat type. We also compared the dynamics of A. ramosum in two contrasting habitats. We examined three populations per species and habitat type. The results showed that single life history traits as well as the mean population dynamics of A. liliago and A. ramosum from the same habitat type were more similar than the population dynamics of A. ramosum from the two contrasting habitats. Conclusions Our findings suggest that when transferring knowledge regarding population dynamics between populations, we need to take habitat conditions into account, as these conditions appear to be more important than the species involved (ploidy level). However, the two species differ significantly in their overall population growth rates, indicating that the ploidy level has an effect on species performance. In contrast to what has been suggested by previous studies, we observed a higher population growth rate in the diploid species. This is in agreement with the wider range of habitats occupied by the diploid species. PMID:24116057

  10. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  11. The effect of light direction and suspended cell concentrations on algal biofilm growth rates.

    PubMed

    Schnurr, Peter J; Espie, George S; Allen, D Grant

    2014-10-01

    Algae biofilms were grown in a semicontinuous flat plate biofilm photobioreactor to study the effects of light direction and suspended algal cell populations on algal biofilm growth. It was determined that, under the growth conditions and biofilm thicknesses studied, light direction had no effect on long-term algal biofilm growth (26 days); however, light direction did affect the concentration of suspended algal cells by influencing the photon flux density in the growth medium in the photobioreactors. This suspended algal cell population affected short-term (7 days) algae cell recruitment and algal biofilm growth, but additional studies showed that enhanced suspended algal cell populations did not affect biofilm growth rates over the long term (26 days). Studying profiles of light transmittance through biofilms as they grew showed that most of the light became attenuated by the biomass after just a few days of growth (88 % after 3 days). The estimated biofilm thicknesses after these few days of growth were approximately 150 μm. The light attenuation data suggests that, although the biofilms grew to 700-900 μm, under these light intensities, only the first few hundred micrometers of the biofilm is receiving enough light to be photosynthetically active. We postulate that this photosynthetically active layer of the biofilm grows adjacent to the light source, while the rest of the biofilm is in a stationary growth phase. The results of this study have implications for algal biofilm photobioreactor design and operation.

  12. The effect of light direction and suspended cell concentrations on algal biofilm growth rates.

    PubMed

    Schnurr, Peter J; Espie, George S; Allen, D Grant

    2014-10-01

    Algae biofilms were grown in a semicontinuous flat plate biofilm photobioreactor to study the effects of light direction and suspended algal cell populations on algal biofilm growth. It was determined that, under the growth conditions and biofilm thicknesses studied, light direction had no effect on long-term algal biofilm growth (26 days); however, light direction did affect the concentration of suspended algal cells by influencing the photon flux density in the growth medium in the photobioreactors. This suspended algal cell population affected short-term (7 days) algae cell recruitment and algal biofilm growth, but additional studies showed that enhanced suspended algal cell populations did not affect biofilm growth rates over the long term (26 days). Studying profiles of light transmittance through biofilms as they grew showed that most of the light became attenuated by the biomass after just a few days of growth (88 % after 3 days). The estimated biofilm thicknesses after these few days of growth were approximately 150 μm. The light attenuation data suggests that, although the biofilms grew to 700-900 μm, under these light intensities, only the first few hundred micrometers of the biofilm is receiving enough light to be photosynthetically active. We postulate that this photosynthetically active layer of the biofilm grows adjacent to the light source, while the rest of the biofilm is in a stationary growth phase. The results of this study have implications for algal biofilm photobioreactor design and operation. PMID:25149444

  13. Substrate-controlled succession of marine bacterioplankton populations induced by a phytoplankton bloom.

    PubMed

    Teeling, Hanno; Fuchs, Bernhard M; Becher, Dörte; Klockow, Christine; Gardebrecht, Antje; Bennke, Christin M; Kassabgy, Mariette; Huang, Sixing; Mann, Alexander J; Waldmann, Jost; Weber, Marc; Klindworth, Anna; Otto, Andreas; Lange, Jana; Bernhardt, Jörg; Reinsch, Christine; Hecker, Michael; Peplies, Jörg; Bockelmann, Frank D; Callies, Ulrich; Gerdts, Gunnar; Wichels, Antje; Wiltshire, Karen H; Glöckner, Frank Oliver; Schweder, Thomas; Amann, Rudolf

    2012-05-01

    Phytoplankton blooms characterize temperate ocean margin zones in spring. We investigated the bacterioplankton response to a diatom bloom in the North Sea and observed a dynamic succession of populations at genus-level resolution. Taxonomically distinct expressions of carbohydrate-active enzymes (transporters; in particular, TonB-dependent transporters) and phosphate acquisition strategies were found, indicating that distinct populations of Bacteroidetes, Gammaproteobacteria, and Alphaproteobacteria are specialized for successive decomposition of algal-derived organic matter. Our results suggest that algal substrate availability provided a series of ecological niches in which specialized populations could bloom. This reveals how planktonic species, despite their seemingly homogeneous habitat, can evade extinction by direct competition. PMID:22556258

  14. Fluctuation Relations of Fitness and Information in Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, Tetsuya J.; Sughiyama, Yuki

    2015-12-01

    Phenotype switching with and without sensing environment is a common strategy of organisms to survive in a fluctuating environment. Understanding the evolutionary advantages of switching and sensing requires a quantitative evaluation of their fitness gain and its fluctuation together with the conditions for the switching and sensing strategies being adapted to a given environment. In this work, by using a pathwise formulation of the population dynamics, we show that the optimal switching strategy is characterized by a consistency condition for time-forward and backward path probabilities. The formulation also clarifies the underlying information-theoretic aspect of selection as a passive information compression. The loss of fitness by a suboptimal strategy is also shown to satisfy a fluctuation relation, which provides us with the information on how environmental fluctuation impacts the advantages of the optimal strategy. These results are naturally extended to the situation that organisms can use an environmental signal by actively sensing the environment. The fluctuation relations of the fitness gain by sensing are derived in which the multivariate mutual information among the phenotype, the environment, and the signal plays the role to quantify the relevant information in the signal for the fitness gain.

  15. Population dynamics of a pathogen: the conundrum of vivax malaria

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Building a mathematical model of population dynamics of pathogens within their host involves considerations of factors similar to those in ecology, as pathogens can prey on cells in the host. But within the multicellular host, attacked cell types are integrated with other cellular systems, which in turn intervene in the infection. For example, immune responses attempt to sense and then eliminate or contain pathogens, and homeostatic mechanisms try to compensate for cell loss. This review focuses on modeling applied to malarias, diseases caused by single-cell eukaryote parasites that infect red blood cells, with special concern given to vivax malaria, a disease often thought to be benign (if sometimes incapacitating) because the parasite only attacks a small proportion of red blood cells, the very youngest ones. However, I will use mathematical modeling to argue that depletion of this pool of red blood cells can be disastrous to the host if growth of the parasite is not vigorously check by host immune responses. Also, modeling can elucidate aspects of new field observations that indicate that vivax malaria is more dangerous than previously thought. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12551-010-0034-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:20730124

  16. Population dynamics of Cyathura carinata (Isopoda) in a eutrophic temperate estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, S. M.; Pardal, M. A.; Lillebø, A. I.; Cardoso, P. G.; Marques, J. C.

    2004-12-01

    From January 1993 to September 1995, Cyathura carinata was a target species of a monitoring programme carried in the Mondego Estuary (Portugal). Being one of the key species of the intertidal mud flats, this isopod was found to be most abundant in a eutrophic area, where seasonal macroalgal blooms usually occur. Its density decreased towards downstream areas, where some Zostera noltii beds exist. At the Mondego Estuary, the present work stated that C. carinata: (a) had a 2-year life span, even though, 80-90% of the individuals died when 1 year old, revealing a strong post-reproduction mortality; (b) produced a single cohort per year; (c) showed continuous growth (with lower rates during winter); (d) evidenced protogynous hermaphroditism and (e) presented a high growth production and a low turnover ratio. A latitudinal gradient reflected in the life features of C. carinata was described. Except for the life span and the frequency of reproduction, which are generally valid for all populations, C. carinata from the Mondego Estuary fitted the characteristics of other populations from the south of Europe. The effects of macroalgal blooms were assessed. Cyathura carinata seemed to temporarily benefit from the presence of macroalgae, due to higher energy resources and more efficient protection against predators. In a long term, algal blooms had negative consequences. It was particularly evident on the recruitment success, which had repercussions in population abundance, and on the secondary production. Therefore, repeated events of algal blooms embracing the distribution areas of C. carinata represent a threat to this species in eutrophic estuaries.

  17. Theoretical lessons for increasing algal biofuel: Evolution of oil accumulation to avert carbon starvation in microalgae.

    PubMed

    Akita, Tetsuya; Kamo, Masashi

    2015-09-01

    Microalgae-derived oil is considered as a feasible alternative to fossil-derived oil. To produce more algal biomass, both algal population size and oil accumulation in algae must be maximized. Most of the previous studies have concentrated on only one of these issues, and relatively little attention has been devoted to considering the tradeoff between them. In this paper, we first theoretically investigated evolutionary reasons for oil accumulation and then by coupling population and evolutionary dynamics, we searched for conditions that may provide better yields. Using our model, we assume that algae allocate assimilated carbon to growth, maintenance, and carbon accumulation as biofuel and that the amount of essential materials (carbon and nitrate) are strongly linked in fixed proportions. Such stoichiometrically explicit models showed that (i) algae with more oil show slower population growth; therefore, the use of such algae results in lower total yields of biofuel and (ii) oil accumulation in algae is caused by carbon and not nitrate starvation. The latter can be interpreted as a strategy for avoiding the risk of increased death rate by carbon starvation. Our model also showed that both strong carbon starvation and moderately limited nitrate will promote total biofuel production. Our results highlight considering the life-history traits for a higher total yields of biofuel, which leads to insight into both establishing a prolonged culture and collection of desired strains from a natural environment.

  18. From home range dynamics to population cycles: validation and realism of a common vole population model for pesticide risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wang, Magnus

    2013-04-01

    Despite various attempts to establish population models as standard tools in pesticide risk assessment, population models still receive limited acceptance by risk assessors and authorities in Europe. A main criticism of risk assessors is that population models are often not, or not sufficiently, validated. Hence the realism of population-level risk assessments conducted with such models remains uncertain. We therefore developed an individual-based population model for the common vole, Microtus arvalis, and demonstrate how population models can be validated in great detail based on published data. The model is developed for application in pesticide risk assessment, therefore, the validation covers all areas of the biology of the common vole that are relevant for the analysis of potential effects and recovery after application of pesticides. Our results indicate that reproduction, survival, age structure, spatial behavior, and population dynamics reproduced from the model are comparable to field observations. Also interannual population cycles, which are frequently observed in field studies of small mammals, emerge from the population model. These cycles were shown to be caused by the home range behavior and dispersal. As observed previously in the field, population cycles in the model were also stronger for longer breeding season length. Our results show how validation can help to evaluate the realism of population models, and we discuss the importance of taking field methodology and resulting bias into account. Our results also demonstrate how population models can help to test or understand biological mechanisms in population ecology.

  19. Algal culture studies for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Radmer, R.; Behrens, P.; Arnett, K.; Gladue, R.; Cox, J.; Lieberman, D.

    1987-01-01

    Microalgae are well-suited as a component of a Closed Environmental Life Support System (CELSS), since they can couple the closely related functions of food production and atmospheric regeneration. The objective was to provide a basis for predicting the response of CELSS algal cultures, and thus the food supply and air regeneration system, to changes in the culture parameters. Scenedesmus growth was measured as a function of light intensity, and the spectral dependence of light absorption by the algae as well as algal respiration in the light were determined as a function of cell concentration. These results were used to test and confirm a mathematical model that describes the productivity of an algal culture in terms of the competing processes of photosynthesis and respiration. The relationship of algal productivity to cell concentration was determined at different carbon dioxide concentrations, temperatures, and light intensities. The maximum productivity achieved by an air-grown culture was found to be within 10% of the computed maximum productivity, indicating that CO2 was very efficiently removed from the gas stream by the algal culture. Measurements of biomass productivity as a function of cell concentration at different light intensities indicated that both the productivity and efficiency of light utilization were greater at higher light intensities.

  20. [Population dynamics and control techniques of aphids on honeysuckle].

    PubMed

    Sun, Ying; Xue, Ming; Zhang, Xiao; Zhao, Hai-Peng; Li, Zhao-Xia

    2013-11-01

    The objective of this study is to define the population dynamics of Semiaphis heraclei in the main-producing district of Lonicera japonica in Shandong, and screen for highly efficient, safety control technique. Through fixed field investigation, we tested the toxicity of eight kinds of insecticides by using dipping methods, and carried out the field experiment. The results showed that the aphids' emergence peak appeared in May. The aphids on the Sijihua variety of L. japonica was more susceptible and the peak was also seven days earlier than Damao variety of L. japonica. The aphid populations on Sijihua were 1 fold than those on the Daomao in happened peak. Comparing the eight kinds of insecticides, the LC50 of lambda-cyhaothrin, abamectin, imidacloprid and pyrethrin to wingless aphids were 1.494, 1.690, 2.840, 2.861 mg x L(-1), respectively, whose toxicity were higher, the toxicity of matrine, pymetrozine and azadirachtin were also high. The field efficacy trials indicated that during the period of aphids occurred, 25% imidacloprid wettable powder, 1.8% abamectin missible oil, 2.5% lambda-cyhaothrin missible oil, 25% pymetrozine wettable powder, 5% pyrethrin missible oil, 1% matrine water aqua were sprayed at concentrations of 20,000, 2,000, 2,500, 5,000, 500 and 50 times, respectively,the control effect achieved 91.69%, 98.90%, 96.18%, 95.06%, 99.24%, 90.10%, respectively, after 5 days. During the growing period of L. japonica in spring, application of thiamethoxam, thiacloprid, pymetrozine and imidacloprid, all of the control effect against aphids achieved above 98.88% after 50 days. The result indicated that May was the S. heraclei Takahashi's emergence peak in Pingyi, Shandong. The efficient safety and environmentally friendly insecticides by spraying and systemic insecticide of pymetrozine and imidacloprid by root application were all efficient controlled aphids. These insecticides were long for controlling S. heraclei Takahashi and worthy of being widely

  1. [Population dynamics and control techniques of aphids on honeysuckle].

    PubMed

    Sun, Ying; Xue, Ming; Zhang, Xiao; Zhao, Hai-Peng; Li, Zhao-Xia

    2013-11-01

    The objective of this study is to define the population dynamics of Semiaphis heraclei in the main-producing district of Lonicera japonica in Shandong, and screen for highly efficient, safety control technique. Through fixed field investigation, we tested the toxicity of eight kinds of insecticides by using dipping methods, and carried out the field experiment. The results showed that the aphids' emergence peak appeared in May. The aphids on the Sijihua variety of L. japonica was more susceptible and the peak was also seven days earlier than Damao variety of L. japonica. The aphid populations on Sijihua were 1 fold than those on the Daomao in happened peak. Comparing the eight kinds of insecticides, the LC50 of lambda-cyhaothrin, abamectin, imidacloprid and pyrethrin to wingless aphids were 1.494, 1.690, 2.840, 2.861 mg x L(-1), respectively, whose toxicity were higher, the toxicity of matrine, pymetrozine and azadirachtin were also high. The field efficacy trials indicated that during the period of aphids occurred, 25% imidacloprid wettable powder, 1.8% abamectin missible oil, 2.5% lambda-cyhaothrin missible oil, 25% pymetrozine wettable powder, 5% pyrethrin missible oil, 1% matrine water aqua were sprayed at concentrations of 20,000, 2,000, 2,500, 5,000, 500 and 50 times, respectively,the control effect achieved 91.69%, 98.90%, 96.18%, 95.06%, 99.24%, 90.10%, respectively, after 5 days. During the growing period of L. japonica in spring, application of thiamethoxam, thiacloprid, pymetrozine and imidacloprid, all of the control effect against aphids achieved above 98.88% after 50 days. The result indicated that May was the S. heraclei Takahashi's emergence peak in Pingyi, Shandong. The efficient safety and environmentally friendly insecticides by spraying and systemic insecticide of pymetrozine and imidacloprid by root application were all efficient controlled aphids. These insecticides were long for controlling S. heraclei Takahashi and worthy of being widely

  2. Mosquito population dynamic (Diptera: Culicidae) in a eutrophised dam.

    PubMed

    Wermelinger, E D; Benigno, C V; Machado, R N M; Cabello, P H; Meira, A M; Ferreira, A P; Zanuncio, J C

    2012-11-01

    This study observed the mosquito population in a rural eutrophised dam. Larvae of L3 and L4 stages and pupae were dipped out during twelve month collections and the reared to the adult stage for identification. The collections were done along nine metres from the edge of the dam divided in three parts (P1, P2 and P3), each part being 3 m long. P1 did not have vegetation (grass) along its edge,which would reach or sink into the water to promote some shade on the marginal water. A total of 217 adults of four species was identified with the following constancies and frequencies: Culex quinquefasciatus (Say, 1823) (83% and 40.6%), Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) evansae (Brèthes, 1926) (92% and 26.7%), Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) rangeli (Gabaldon, Cova Garcia and Lopez, 1940) (83% and 14.3%) and Culex nigripalpus (Theobald, 1901) (33% and 18.4%). C. quinquefasciatus, A. evansae, A. rangeli and C. nigripalpus were more frequent in the quarters Nov./Dec./Jan. (85.7%), May/June/July (75%), Aug./Sept./Oct. (29.4%) and Aug./Sept./Oct. (23.5%) particularly in the months of December (88.4%) Sept.tember (48.94), (38.3) and August (47.62) respectively. The presence of C. quinquefasciatus and the high incidence of Daphinia sp. and also the levels of Organic Nitrogen (0.28 mg/L) and of total Phosphorus (0.02 mg/L) are indications of the eutrophication of the dam. There was a difference regarding the total of Anopheles (A. avansae + A. rangeli) and Culex species (C. quinquefasciatus + C. nigripalpis) between P1 and P2 (χ(2) = 0.0097), P1 and P3 (χ(2) = 0.0005), but not between P2 and P3 (χ(2) = 0.2045).The high C. quinquefasciatus constancy and frequency were confirmed to be a good biological indicator for a eutrophised environment and A. evansae showed a good potential for this environment. Vegetation can be an important factor for anopheline population dynamic also in eutrophic breeding sites.

  3. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  4. Effects of acidification on algal assemblages in temporary ponds

    SciTech Connect

    Glackin, M.E.; Pratt, J.R.

    1994-12-31

    Atmospheric deposition monitoring in Pennsylvania has characterized a steep gradient of acidic ion depositions across the north-central portion of the state. This study evaluated acidification effects on the composition of algal assemblages in temporary ponds in two forested areas exposed to atmospheric deposition that varied in degree of acidity. Artificial substrates were used to sample and compare the algal assemblages in the two areas. Colonized communities were also transplanted to lower pH ponds to observe changes in species composition. A laboratory microcosm experiment manipulating pH was conducted to reduce the variables that differed between the two areas. Fewer algal taxa were present in lower pH ponds, on colonized substrates after transplant to lower pH ponds, and in lower pH laboratory treatments. Species composition was altered in the lower pH conditions. Most taxa that were excluded from the lower pH ponds naturally also did not survive when experimentally introduced to those conditions. These results suggest that acidification of temporary ponds can alter the structure of algal communities. There is interest in a possible link between acid deposition and reports of worldwide declines in amphibian populations. Algae are an important food source for larval amphibians, such as the wood frog, which require temporary ponds to breed. Changes in algal species composition could potentially impact the temporary pond and forest ecosystem.

  5. DYNAMICS OF NEMATODE POPULATIONS IN CACAO GROWN UNDER TRADIONALLY SYSTEM OF MANAGEMENT IN PERUVIAN AMAZON

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Nature of crops and management systems greatly influences population dynamics of parasitic and nonparasitic nematodes in soil. An experiment was undertaken at Tropical Crop Research institute (ICT), Tarapoto, Peru to assess the population dynamics of nematodes in a Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.)-Banana ...

  6. Predicting shifts in dynamics of cannibalistic field populations using individual-based models.

    PubMed

    Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M; Bertolo, Andrea

    2004-12-01

    The occurrence of qualitative shifts in population dynamical regimes has long been the focus of population biologists. Nonlinear ecological models predict that these shifts in dynamical regimes may occur as a result of parameter shifts, but unambiguous empirical evidence is largely restricted to laboratory populations. We used an individual-based modelling approach to predict dynamical shifts in field fish populations where the capacity to cannibalize differed between species. Model-generated individual growth trajectories that reflect different population dynamics were confronted with empirically observed growth trajectories, showing that our ordering and quantitative estimates of the different cannibalistic species in terms of life-history characteristics led to correct qualitative predictions of their dynamics. PMID:15590600

  7. Algal taxonomy forum: Algal Taxonomist, Let Serendipity Reign!

    PubMed

    Druehl, Louis

    2013-04-01

    The publication of a mini-review by Olivier De Clerck et al. in this issue of the Journal of Phycology presented an opportunity to open a dialogue on challenges faced by contemporary algal taxonomists. The Editorial Office solicited the following two additional contributions in response to De Clerck et al.'s paper; the responses were edited solely for clarity, space and format.

  8. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  9. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Rose, Amy N; Liu, Cheng; Urban, Marie L; Stewart, Robert N

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  10. Eco-evolutionary dynamics: disentangling phenotypic, environmental and population fluctuations.

    PubMed

    Ezard, Thomas H G; Côté, Steeve D; Pelletier, Fanie

    2009-06-12

    Decomposing variation in population growth into contributions from both ecological and evolutionary processes is of fundamental concern, particularly in a world characterized by rapid responses to anthropogenic threats. Although the impact of ecological change on evolutionary response has long been acknowledged, the converse has predominantly been neglected, especially empirically. By applying a recently published conceptual framework, we assess and contrast the relative importance of phenotypic and environmental variability on annual population growth in five ungulate populations. In four of the five populations, the contribution of phenotypic variability was greater than the contribution of environmental variability, although not significantly so. The similarity in the contributions of environment and phenotype suggests that neither is worthy of neglect. Population growth is a consequence of multiple processes, which strengthens arguments advocating integrated approaches to assess how populations respond to their environments.

  11. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

    PubMed

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

  12. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.

    2012-04-01

    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  13. Dynamics of single-species population growth: stability or chaos

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-01-01

    We have examined stability at the carrying capacity for 25 genetically different populations of Drosophila melanogaster. In spite of their genetic heterogeneity, 20 of the populations yield stable equilibria and none have eigenvalues significantly greater than one. Computer simulations demonstrate how selection at the individual level may account for population stability (and, hence, that group selection is not necessary for the evolution of stability). Recent theoretical studies on density-dependent selection in random environments provide predictions consistent with our empirical findings.

  14. q-deformations and the dynamics of the larch bud-moth population cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyengar, Sudharsana V.; Balakrishnan, J.

    2014-07-01

    The concept of q-deformation of numbers is applied here to improve and modify a tritrophic population dynamics model to understand defoliation of the coniferous larch trees due to outbreaks of the larch bud-moth insect population. The results are in qualitative agreement with observed behavior, with the larch needle lengths, bud-moth population and parasitoid populations all showing 9-period cycles which are mutually synchronized.

  15. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    PubMed

    Araújo, Rita M; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

    2014-01-01

    Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and

  16. Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Fucoid Populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): A Comparison between Central and Range Edge Populations

    PubMed Central

    Araújo, Rita M.; Serrão, Ester A.; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

    2014-01-01

    Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species’ distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λs) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λs much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λs that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals’ life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and shows

  17. The effects of water flow and sedimentation on interactions between massive Porites and algal turf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gowan, Jennifer C.; Tootell, Jesse S.; Carpenter, Robert C.

    2014-09-01

    Interactions between scleractinian corals and benthic algae can be an important process structuring reef communities, yet interaction dynamics are not fixed and may be influenced by abiotic factors such as sedimentation, a process often underlying reef degradation. However, rates of sedimentation and the effects of trapped sediments may be influenced by water flow. The first goal of this study was to quantify gradients in sedimentation and flow along fringing and back reefs of the north shore of Moorea, French Polynesia, and determine whether such gradients correlate with changes in the frequency and outcomes of massive Porites-algal turf interactions. On the back reef, the frequency of Porites-algal turf interactions and the competitive success of algal turfs increased significantly with decreasing flow. Sedimentation, however, was not a significant driver of the observed patterns. Along fringing reefs, in the absence of a flow gradient, it was the gradient in sedimentation that best explained spatial variation in Porites-algal turf interaction frequencies and the competitive success of algal turfs. The second goal was to quantify the separate and combined effects of flow and sedimentation on Porites-algal turf interactions in a laboratory setting. The combined effects of low flow and sedimentation significantly increased the area of Porites tissue damaged when in contact with algal turf, while high flow attenuated the negative effects of sedimentation. Together, these results implicate flow and sedimentation as important drivers of biological interactions between massive Porites and algal turf.

  18. Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

    2007-01-01

    A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  19. Population dynamics of a natural red deer population over 200 years detected via substantial changes of genetic variation.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Gunther Sebastian; Johannesen, Jes; Griebeler, Eva Maria

    2016-05-01

    Most large mammals have constantly been exposed to anthropogenic influence over decades or even centuries. Because of their long generation times and lack of sampling material, inferences of past population genetic dynamics, including anthropogenic impacts, have only relied on the analysis of the structure of extant populations. Here, we investigate for the first time the change in the genetic constitution of a natural red deer population over two centuries, using up to 200-year-old antlers (30 generations) stored in trophy collections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the oldest DNA source ever used for microsatellite population genetic analyses. We demonstrate that government policy and hunting laws may have strong impacts on populations that can lead to unexpectedly rapid changes in the genetic constitution of a large mammal population. A high ancestral individual polymorphism seen in an outbreeding population (1813-1861) was strongly reduced in descendants (1923-1940) during the mid-19th and early 20th century by genetic bottlenecks. Today (2011), individual polymorphism and variance among individuals is increasing in a constant-sized (managed) population. Differentiation was high among periods (F ST > ***); consequently, assignment tests assigned individuals to their own period with >85% probability. In contrast to the high variance observed at nuclear microsatellite loci, mtDNA (D-loop) was monomorphic through time, suggesting that male immigration dominates the genetic evolution in this population. PMID:27096075

  20. Population dynamics of aquatic snails in Pampulha reservoir.

    PubMed

    Freitas, J R; Bedê, L C; De Marco Júnior, P; Rocha, L A; Santos, M B

    1987-01-01

    An attempt was made to determine more accurately the density of molluskan populations in the Pampulha reservoir, using the quadrate method, intending to detect the fluctuation of the populations density, the habitat conditions and the possible competitive interactions among Biomphalaria tenagophila, Melanoides tuberculata, Pomacea haustrum and Biomphalaria glabrata, through the analysis of populational parameters. Among the most significative facts observed in the reservoir it has to be mentioned: the almost disappearance of B. glabrata; the invasion, colonization, fixation and fast growing of M. tuberculata population until reaching about 11,000 individuals/m2; the density fluctuations of B. tenagophila, P. haustrum and M. tuberculata alives and deads; differences on the habitat preference of these three molluskan species at the edge (at the limit earth-water, at 0.70m and 1.40m from the shore line); monthly mortality rates and reproduction seasons of the species. PMID:3509186

  1. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SMALL MAMMALS ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  2. Population dynamics of aquatic snails in Pampulha reservoir.

    PubMed

    Freitas, J R; Bedê, L C; De Marco Júnior, P; Rocha, L A; Santos, M B

    1987-01-01

    An attempt was made to determine more accurately the density of molluskan populations in the Pampulha reservoir, using the quadrate method, intending to detect the fluctuation of the populations density, the habitat conditions and the possible competitive interactions among Biomphalaria tenagophila, Melanoides tuberculata, Pomacea haustrum and Biomphalaria glabrata, through the analysis of populational parameters. Among the most significative facts observed in the reservoir it has to be mentioned: the almost disappearance of B. glabrata; the invasion, colonization, fixation and fast growing of M. tuberculata population until reaching about 11,000 individuals/m2; the density fluctuations of B. tenagophila, P. haustrum and M. tuberculata alives and deads; differences on the habitat preference of these three molluskan species at the edge (at the limit earth-water, at 0.70m and 1.40m from the shore line); monthly mortality rates and reproduction seasons of the species.

  3. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COMPARISON OF ALGAL BIODIVERSITY AND BENTHIC COVER AT GARDNER PINNACLES, NORTHWESTERN HAWAI`IAN ISLANDS(1).

    PubMed

    Vroom, Peter S; Timmers, Molly A V

    2009-04-01

    Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument in the Northwestern Hawai`ian Islands is the second largest marine protected area in the world, providing an opportunity for scientists to understand natural ecosystem fluctuations in subtropical marine communities with little anthropogenic impact. Gardner Pinnacles is composed of two emergent basaltic rocks and has the smallest land area of any island in the Northwestern Hawai`ian Island chain but has among the largest submerged reef area. Gardner Pinnacles is also among the least anthropogenically impacted island in the Hawai`ian Archipelago, although a thriving lobster and bottomfish industry existed in the area for many years. This study assesses nearshore algal biodiversity and percent cover at Gardner Pinnacles to examine interannual differences in community dynamics and places them in an ecosystem context by also examining associated invertebrate and fish communities. Biodiversity surveys increased the number of known eukaryotic algal species occurring in marine environments immediately adjacent to the emergent portion of Gardner Pinnacles from 31 to 77. Algal percent cover, specifically populations of the green alga Microdictyon setchellianum M. Howe, varied dramatically between sampling years, possibly in response to seasonal differences. Towed-diver surveys revealed that macroalgae covered >90% of the substrate during the 2003 sampling period but returned to 2000 levels (1%-35% cover) by 2004 without any detectable damage to other reef organisms. Fish communities remained statistically similar between sampling years, and percent cover of live coral around the island did not exceed 7%.

  4. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    SciTech Connect

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  5. Population dynamics of the endangered Cape Sable seaside-sparrow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Curnutt, J.L.; Mayer, A.L.; Brooks, T.M.; Manne, L.; Bass, O.L.; Fleming, D.M.; Philip, Nott M.; Pimm, S.L.

    1998-01-01

    The Cape Sable seaside-sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis) has disappeared from its only known breeding areas episodically since its discovery early this century. Systematic surveys across its range in the southern Everglades find the sparrow's range to be fragmented into six subpopulations. The sparrow population decreased by 58% between 1992 and 1995, with the near extinction of the western half of the population and the temporary local extinction of some eastern populations. Other similar grassland sparrows have populations that vary considerably from year to year. Yet the decline in the western subpopulation and the local extinction of some of the peripheral populations cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Hurricane Andrew passed over several subpopulations prior to the particularly poor year of 1993. However, the geographical and temporal patterns of subpopulation decline are not consistent with what would be expected following a hurricane. Frequent fires prevent successful breeding as does flooding during the breeding season. Better management can prevent frequent fires and episodic flooding. However, the long-term survival of the sparrow depends on managing the unanticipated risks that attend its small, fragmented population.

  6. An Application of Lagrangian Coherent Structures to Harmful Algal Blooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olascoaga, M. J.; Beron-Vera, F. J.; Brand, L. E.; Kocak, H.

    2009-04-01

    Karenia brevis is present in low concentrations in vast areas of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). This toxic dinoflagellate sporadically develops blooms anywhere in the GoM, except in the southern portion of West Florida Shelf (WFS). There, these harmful algal blooms (HABs) are recurrent events whose frequency and intensity are increasing. HABs on the WFS are usually only evident once they have achieved high concentrations that can be detected by observation of discolored water, which may be apparent in satellite imagery; by ecological problems such as fish kills; or human health problems. Because the early development stages of HABs are usually not detected, there is limited understanding of the environmental conditions that lead to their development. Analysis of simulated surface ocean currents reveals the presence of a persistent large-scale Lagrangian coherent structure (LCS) on the southern portion of the WFS. A LCS can be regarded as a distinguished material line which divides immiscible fluid regions with distinct advection properties. Consistent with satellite-tracked drifter trajectories, this LCS on the WFS constitutes a cross-shelf barrier for the lateral transport of passive tracers. We hypothesize that such a LCS provides favorable conditions for the development of HABs. LCSs are also employed to trace the early location of an observed HAB on the WFS. Using a simplified population dynamics model we infer the factors that could possibly lead to the development of this HAB. The population dynamics model determines nitrogen in two components, nutrients and phytoplankton, which are assumed to be passively advected by simulated surface ocean currents. Two nutrient sources are inferred for the HAB whose evolution is found to be strongly tied to the simulated LCSs. These nutrient sources are found to be located near shore and likely due to land runoff.

  7. Algal taxonomy forum: Algal Taxonomist, Let Serendipity Reign!

    PubMed

    Druehl, Louis

    2013-04-01

    The publication of a mini-review by Olivier De Clerck et al. in this issue of the Journal of Phycology presented an opportunity to open a dialogue on challenges faced by contemporary algal taxonomists. The Editorial Office solicited the following two additional contributions in response to De Clerck et al.'s paper; the responses were edited solely for clarity, space and format. PMID:27008510

  8. Universality in exact quantum state population dynamics and control

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, Lian-Ao; Segal, Dvira; Brumer, Paul; Egusquiza, Inigo L.

    2010-09-15

    We consider an exact population transition, defined as the probability of finding a state at a final time that is exactly equal to the probability of another state at the initial time. We prove that, given a Hamiltonian, there always exists a complete set of orthogonal states that can be employed as time-zero states for which this exact population transition occurs. The result is general: It holds for arbitrary systems, arbitrary pairs of initial and final states, and for any time interval. The proposition is illustrated with several analytic models. In particular, we demonstrate that in some cases, by tuning the control parameters, a complete transition might occur, where a target state, vacant at t=0, is fully populated at time {tau}.

  9. Ecological change, group territoriality, and population dynamics in Serengeti lions.

    PubMed

    Packer, Craig; Hilborn, Ray; Mosser, Anna; Kissui, Bernard; Borner, Markus; Hopcraft, Grant; Wilmshurst, John; Mduma, Simon; Sinclair, Anthony R E

    2005-01-21

    Territorial behavior is expected to buffer populations against short-term environmental perturbations, but we have found that group living in African lions causes a complex response to long-term ecological change. Despite numerous gradual changes in prey availability and vegetative cover, regional populations of Serengeti lions remained stable for 10- to 20-year periods and only shifted to new equilibria in sudden leaps. Although gradually improving environmental conditions provided sufficient resources to permit the subdivision of preexisting territories, regional lion populations did not expand until short-term conditions supplied enough prey to generate large cohorts of surviving young. The results of a simulation model show that the observed pattern of "saltatory equilibria" results from the lions' grouping behavior.

  10. Fragmentation and groundwater supply as major drivers of algal and plant diversity and relative cover dynamics along a highly modified lowland river.

    PubMed

    Bolpagni, Rossano; Racchetti, Erica; Laini, Alex

    2016-10-15

    Algae and aquatic vascular plants were investigated along a highly modified medium-sized lowland river (Oglio River, northern Italy). We focused on the role of fragmentation and groundwater supply in driving macrophyte assemblages, paying particular attention to soft-bodied benthic algae. Four different a priori stretch types (dammed, groundwater-dependent, potamal and rhithral) were identified along the river longitudinal gradient as proxies of river hydrology and relative human-induced flow alterations. Over three years (2009-2011), taxa diversity, cover data, spatial and temporal dynamics and indicator and detector species were compared with physical, chemical and hydrological variables at 30 different river sites. Data was explored by indicator species analysis, nonmetric multidimensional scaling, and PROTEST. A total of 88 taxa, of which 36 were algae (equal to 40.9% of the total diversity), 3 bryophytes (3.4%) and 49 vascular plants (55.7%), were recorded. Taxa diversity peaked at the groundwater-dependent sites for both algae and vascular plants (with a mean of 12.8±2.7 and 12.7±4.8 taxa per site, respectively). Algae cover values were one order of magnitude higher than those of vascular plants (with an overall mean of 37.0±24.2% per site). The vascular plants counterbalanced the algae coverage values exclusively at the dammed sites (27.6±23.2% vs 28.2±13.9%, respectively). A clear zonation of communities emerged from the multivariate analysis, which revealed taxa rearrangements that largely overlapped the river stretch types. Inter-annual comparisons confirmed the strong stability of the primary producer communities in the short term (three years). Our work substantiates the pivotal role played by fragmentation and hydrology, in addition to groundwater, in structuring riverine macrophyte communities. Further investigations are needed to resolve the uncertainty surrounding the non-linear responses of macrophytes to the physical and chemical conditions

  11. Population dynamics and range expansion in nine-banded armadillos.

    PubMed

    Loughry, William J; Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; McDonough, Colleen M; Oli, Madan K

    2013-01-01

    Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992-2006) of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for γ, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for γ = 0.1, to 1.03 for γ = 1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when γ ≥ 0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with γ, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years) was independent of γ. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current, reproduction

  12. A Quantative Adverse Outcome Pathway Linking Aromatase Inhibition in Fathead Minnows with Population Dynamics

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathway Linking Aromatase Inhibition in Fathead Minnows with Population DynamicsAn adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a qualitative description linking a molecular initiating event (MIE) with measureable key events leading to an adverse outcome (AO). ...

  13. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  14. Algal biofuels: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Leite, Gustavo B; Abdelaziz, Ahmed E M; Hallenbeck, Patrick C

    2013-10-01

    Biodiesel production using microalgae is attractive in a number of respects. Here a number of pros and cons to using microalgae for biofuels production are reviewed. Algal cultivation can be carried out using non-arable land and non-potable water with simple nutrient supply. In addition, algal biomass productivities are much higher than those of vascular plants and the extractable content of lipids that can be usefully converted to biodiesel, triacylglycerols (TAGs) can be much higher than that of the oil seeds now used for first generation biodiesel. On the other hand, practical, cost-effective production of biofuels from microalgae requires that a number of obstacles be overcome. These include the development of low-cost, effective growth systems, efficient and energy saving harvesting techniques, and methods for oil extraction and conversion that are environmentally benign and cost-effective. Promising recent advances in these areas are highlighted.

  15. Algal blooms and public health

    SciTech Connect

    Epstein, P.R. . Harvard Medical School)

    1993-06-01

    Alterations in coastal ecology are expanding the geographic extent, frequency, magnitude, and species complexity'' of algal blooms throughout the world, increasing the threat of fish and shellfish poisonings, anoxia in marine nurseries, and of cholera. The World Health Organization and members of the medical profession have described the potential health effects of global climate change. They warn of the consequences of increased ultraviolet-B (UV-B) rays and of warming: the possible damage to agriculture and nutrition, and the impact on habitats which may alter the distribution of vector-borne and water-based infectious diseases. Algal growth due to increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) and warming are already affecting marine microflora and aquatic plants; and there is now clear evidence that marine organisms are a reservoir for enteric pathogens. The pattern of cholera in the Western Hemisphere suggests that environmental changes have already begun to influence the epidemiology of this infectious disease. 106 refs.

  16. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  17. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE CACTUS MOTH, CACTOBLASTIS CACTORUM IN FLORIDA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Field populations of the cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum were surveyed weekly beginning in July 2006. We sampled the native cactus, Opuntia stricta visually to determine the densities and development of immature stages. Adult males were collected using a synthetic pheromone and a sticky wing trap...

  18. Dynamics of Possible Late Heavy Bombardment Impactor Populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dones, Luke

    2002-01-01

    The existence of the later lunar basins implies the existence of a massive dynamical reservoir that can store small bodies for some 6000 Myr after the Moon formed. We will discuss four recent models for such reservoirs. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  19. Stochastic population dynamics in astrochemistry and aerosol science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Losert-Valiente Kroon, C. M.

    Classical, non-equilibrium systems of diffusing species or entities undergoing depletion, evaporation and reaction processes are at the heart of many problems in Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Financial Mathematics. It is well known that fluctuations and correlations in statistical systems can have a profound influence on the macroscopic properties of the system. However, the traditional rate equations that describe the evolution of mean populations in time and space do not incorporate statistical fluctuations. This becomes an issue of great importance when population densities are low. In order to develop a stochastic description of birth-and-death processes beyond the mean field approximation I employ techniques in classical many-body Physics in a manner analogous to the treatment of quantum systems. I obtain promising results to understand and quantify the exact circumstances of the failure of the mean-field approximation in specific problems in Astrophysics, namely heterogeneous chemical reactions in interstellar clouds, and in Aerosol Science, namely heterogeneous nucleation processes, and deliver the means to manipulate the alternative stochastic framework according to the Doi-Peliti formalism. In this framework the mean population of a species is given by the average of a solution to a set of constraint equations over all realisations of the stochastic noise. The constraint equations are inhomogeneous stochastic partial differential equations with multiplicative real or complex Gaussian noise. In general, these equations cannot be solved analytically. Therefore I resort to the numerical implementation of the Doi-Peliti formalism. The main code is written in the GNU C language, some algebraic calculations are performed by means of the MapleV package. In the case of large population densities the stochastic framework renders the same results as the mean field approximation whereas for low population densities its predictions differ substantially from the

  20. Reconstructing local population dynamics in noisy metapopulations--the role of random catastrophes and Allee effects.

    PubMed

    Hart, Edmund M; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are

  1. Reconstructing Local Population Dynamics in Noisy Metapopulations—The Role of Random Catastrophes and Allee Effects

    PubMed Central

    Hart, Edmund M.; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity—demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes— affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity—positive and negative environmental fluctuations—caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are

  2. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  3. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  4. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  5. A new method for identifying rapid decline dynamics in wild vertebrate populations.

    PubMed

    Fonzo, Martina Di; Collen, Ben; Mace, Georgina M

    2013-07-01

    Tracking trends in the abundance of wildlife populations is a sensitive method for assessing biodiversity change due to the short time-lag between human pressures and corresponding shifts in population trends. This study tests for proposed associations between different types of human pressures and wildlife population abundance decline-curves and introduces a method to distinguish decline trajectories from natural fluctuations in population time-series. First, we simulated typical mammalian population time-series under different human pressure types and intensities and identified significant distinctions in population dynamics. Based on the concavity of the smoothed population trend and the algebraic function which was the closest fit to the data, we determined those differences in decline dynamics that were consistently attributable to each pressure type. We examined the robustness of the attribution of pressure type to population decline dynamics under more realistic conditions by simulating populations under different levels of environmental stochasticity and time-series data quality. Finally, we applied our newly developed method to 124 wildlife population time-series and investigated how those threat types diagnosed by our method compare to the specific threatening processes reported for those populations. We show how wildlife population decline curves can be used to discern between broad categories of pressure or threat types, but do not work for detailed threat attributions. More usefully, we find that differences in population decline curves can reliably identify populations where pressure is increasing over time, even when data quality is poor, and propose this method as a cost-effective technique for prioritizing conservation actions between populations.

  6. Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

  7. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  8. When stable-stage equilibrium is unlikely: integrating transient population dynamics improves asymptotic methods

    PubMed Central

    Tremblay, Raymond L.; Raventos, Josep; Ackerman, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Evaluation of population projection matrices (PPMs) that are focused on asymptotically based properties of populations is a commonly used approach to evaluate projected dynamics of managed populations. Recently, a set of tools for evaluating the properties of transient dynamics has been expanded to evaluate PPMs and to consider the dynamics of populations prior to attaining the stable-stage distribution, a state that may never be achieved in disturbed or otherwise ephemeral habitats or persistently small populations. This study re-evaluates data for a tropical orchid and examines the value of including such analyses in an integrative approach. Methods Six small populations of Lepanthes rubripetala were used as a model system and the R software package popdemo was used to produce estimates of the indices for the asymptotic growth rate (lambda), sensitivities, reactivity, first-time step attenuation, maximum amplification, maximum attenuation, maximal inertia and maximal attenuation. The response in lambda to perturbations of demographic parameters using transfer functions and multiple perturbations on growth, stasis and fecundity were also determined. The results were compared with previously published asymptotic indices. Key Results It was found that combining asymptotic and transient dynamics expands the understanding of possible population changes. Comparison of the predicted density from reactivity and first-time step attenuation with the observed change in population size in two orchid populations showed that the observed density was within the predicted range. However, transfer function analysis suggests that the traditional approach of measuring perturbation of growth rates and persistence (inertia) may be misleading and is likely to result in erroneous management decisions. Conclusions Based on the results, an integrative approach is recommended using traditional PPMs (asymptotic processes) with an evaluation of the diversity of dynamics

  9. Mechanical algal disruption for efficient biodiesel extraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krehbiel, Joel David

    Biodiesel from algae provides several benefits over current biodiesel feedstocks, but the energy requirements of processing algae into a useable fuel are currently so high as to be prohibitive. One route to improving this is via disruption of the cells prior to lipid extraction, which can significantly increase energy recovery. Unfortunately, several obvious disruption techniques require more energy than can be gained. This dissertation examines the use of microbubbles to improve mechanical disruption of algal cells using experimental, theoretical, and computational methods. New laboratory experiments show that effective ultrasonic disruption of algae is achieved by adding microbubbles to an algal solution. The configuration studied flows the solution through a tube and insonifies a small section with a high-pressure ultrasound wave. Previous biomedical research has shown effective cell membrane damage on animal cells with similar methods, but the present research is the first to extend such study to algal cells. Results indicate that disruption increases with peak negative pressure between 1.90 and 3.07 MPa and with microbubble concentration up to 12.5 x 107 bubbles/ml. Energy estimates of this process suggest that it requires only one-fourth the currently most-efficient laboratory-scale disruption process. Estimates of the radius near each bubble that causes disruption (i.e. the disruption radius) suggest that it increases with peak negative pressure and is near 9--20 microm for all cases tested. It is anticipated that these procedures can be designed for better efficiency and efficacy, which will be facilitated by identifying the root mechanisms of the bubble-induced disruption. We therefore examine whether bubble expansion alone creates sufficient cell deformation for cell rupture. The spherically-symmetric Marmottant model for bubble dynamics allows estimation of the flow regime under experimental conditions. Bubble expansion is modeled as a point source of

  10. Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC). These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis. PMID:27508413

  11. Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

    PubMed

    Porčić, Marko; Blagojević, Tamara; Stefanović, Sofija

    2016-01-01

    The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC). These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis. PMID:27508413

  12. A life-history perspective on the demographic drivers of structured population dynamics in changing environments.

    PubMed

    Koons, David N; Iles, David T; Schaub, Michael; Caswell, Hal

    2016-09-01

    Current understanding of life-history evolution and how demographic parameters contribute to population dynamics across species is largely based on assumptions of either constant environments or stationary environmental variation. Meanwhile, species are faced with non-stationary environmental conditions (changing mean, variance, or both) created by climate and landscape change. To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, we develop a set of transient life table response experiments (LTREs) for decomposing realised population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure. Using transient LTREs in a theoretical framework, we reveal that established concepts in population biology will require revision because of reliance on approaches that do not address the influence of unstable population structure on population growth and mean fitness. Going forward, transient LTREs will enhance understanding of demography and improve the explanatory power of models used to understand ecological and evolutionary dynamics. PMID:27401966

  13. Effects of temporal variation in temperature and density dependence on insect population dynamics

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Understanding effects of environmental variation on insect populations is important in light of predictions about increasing future climatic variability. In order to understand the effects of changing environmental variation on population dynamics and life history evolution in insects one would need...

  14. Quantitative high-throughput population dynamics in continuous-culture by automated microscopy.

    PubMed

    Merritt, Jason; Kuehn, Seppe

    2016-01-01

    We present a high-throughput method to measure abundance dynamics in microbial communities sustained in continuous-culture. Our method uses custom epi-fluorescence microscopes to automatically image single cells drawn from a continuously-cultured population while precisely controlling culture conditions. For clonal populations of Escherichia coli our instrument reveals history-dependent resilience and growth rate dependent aggregation. PMID:27616752

  15. Quantitative high-throughput population dynamics in continuous-culture by automated microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Merritt, Jason; Kuehn, Seppe

    2016-01-01

    We present a high-throughput method to measure abundance dynamics in microbial communities sustained in continuous-culture. Our method uses custom epi-fluorescence microscopes to automatically image single cells drawn from a continuously-cultured population while precisely controlling culture conditions. For clonal populations of Escherichia coli our instrument reveals history-dependent resilience and growth rate dependent aggregation. PMID:27616752

  16. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF HISPID COTTON RATS (SIGMODON HISPIDUS) ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population dynamics of some small-mammal species appear to be regulated by plant-community structure, vegetative cover, plant diversity, and food quality. Thus, plant community changes associated with nitrogen additions would likely impact dynamics and structure of small-mammal ...

  17. A DYNAMICAL SIGNATURE OF MULTIPLE STELLAR POPULATIONS IN 47 TUCANAE

    SciTech Connect

    Richer, Harvey B.; Heyl, Jeremy; Anderson, Jay; Kalirai, Jason S.; Shara, Michael M.; Dotter, Aaron; Fahlman, Gregory G.; Rich, R. Michael E-mail: heyl@phas.ubc.ca E-mail: jkalarai@stsci.edu E-mail: aaron.dotter@gmail.com E-mail: rmr@astro.ucla.edu

    2013-07-01

    Based on the width of its main sequence, and an actual observed split when viewed through particular filters, it is widely accepted that 47 Tucanae contains multiple stellar populations. In this contribution, we divide the main sequence of 47 Tuc into four color groups, which presumably represent stars of various chemical compositions. The kinematic properties of each of these groups are explored via proper motions, and a strong signal emerges of differing proper-motion anisotropies with differing main-sequence color; the bluest main-sequence stars exhibit the largest proper-motion anisotropy which becomes undetectable for the reddest stars. In addition, the bluest stars are also the most centrally concentrated. A similar analysis for Small Magellanic Cloud stars, which are located in the background of 47 Tuc on our frames, yields none of the anisotropy exhibited by the 47 Tuc stars. We discuss implications of these results for possible formation scenarios of the various populations.

  18. Self-organized populations interacting under pursuit-evasion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goudon, Thierry; Nkonga, Boniface; Rascle, Michel; Ribot, Magali

    2015-06-01

    We discuss the modeling of interacting populations through pursuit-evasion-or attraction-repulsion-principles : preys try to escape chasers, chasers are attracted by the presence of preys. We construct a hierarchy of models, ranging from ODEs systems with finite numbers of individuals of each population, to hydrodynamic systems. First-order macroscopic models look like generalized "two-species Keller-Segel equations". But, due to cross-interactions, we can show that the system does not exhibit any blow up phenomena in finite time. We also obtain second-order models, that have the form of systems of balance laws, derived from kinetic models. We bring out a few remarkable features of the models based either on mathematical analysis or numerical simulations.

  19. Two-population dynamics in a growing network model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanova, Kristinka; Iordanov, Ivan

    2012-02-01

    We introduce a growing network evolution model with nodal attributes. The model describes the interactions between potentially violent V and non-violent N agents who have different affinities in establishing connections within their own population versus between the populations. The model is able to generate all stable triads observed in real social systems. In the framework of rate equations theory, we employ the mean-field approximation to derive analytical expressions of the degree distribution and the local clustering coefficient for each type of nodes. Analytical derivations agree well with numerical simulation results. The assortativity of the potentially violent network qualitatively resembles the connectivity pattern in terrorist networks that was recently reported. The assortativity of the network driven by aggression shows clearly different behavior than the assortativity of the networks with connections of non-aggressive nature in agreement with recent empirical results of an online social system.

  20. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    PubMed Central

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

    2014-01-01

    Hutchinson defined species’ realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species’ niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K) and population density (N) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species’ competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability

  1. Evolutionary dynamics of rhizopine within spatially structured rhizobium populations

    PubMed Central

    Simms, E. L.; Bever, J. D.

    1998-01-01

    Symbiosis between legumes and nitrogen-fixing bacteria is thought to bring mutual benefit to each participant. However, it is not known how rhizobia benefit from nodulating legume hosts because they fix nitrogen only after becoming bacteroids, which are terminally differentiated cells that cannot reproduce. Because undifferentiated rhizobia in and around the nodule can reproduce, evolution of symbiotic nitrogen fixation may depend upon kin selection. In some hosts, these kin may persist in the nodule as viable, undifferentiated bacteria. In other hosts, no viable rhizobia survive to reproduce after nodule senescence. Bacteroids in these hosts may benefit their free-living kin by enhancing production of plant root exudates. However, unrelated non-mutualists may also benefit from increased plant exudates. Rhizopines, compounds produced by bacteroids in nodules and catabolized only by related free-living rhizobia, may provide a mechanism by which bacteroids can preferentially benefit kin. Despite this apparent advantage, rhizopine genotypes are relatively rare. We constructed a mathematical model to examine how mixing within rhizobium populations influences the evolution of rhizopine genotypes. Our model predicts that the success of rhizopine genotypes is strongly dependent upon the spatial genetic structure of the bacterial population; rhizopine is more likely to dominate well-mixed populations. Further, for a given level of mixing, we find that rhizopine evolves under a positive frequency-dependent process in which stochastic accumulation of rhizopine alleles is necessary for rhizopine establishment. This process leads to increased spatial structure in rhizobium populations, and suggests that rhizopine may expand the conditions under which nitrogen fixation can evolve via kin selection.

  2. Worldwide Phylogenetic Distributions and Population Dynamics of the Genus Histoplasma

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Maria L.; Gómez, Beatriz L.; Theodoro, Raquel C.; de Hoog, Sybren; Engelthaler, David M.; Zancopé-Oliveira, Rosely M.; Felipe, Maria S. S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Histoplasma capsulatum comprises a worldwide complex of saprobiotic fungi mainly found in nitrogen/phosphate (often bird guano) enriched soils. The microconidia of Histoplasma species may be inhaled by mammalian hosts, and is followed by a rapid conversion to yeast that can persist in host tissues causing histoplasmosis, a deep pulmonary/systemic mycosis. Histoplasma capsulatum sensu lato is a complex of at least eight clades geographically distributed as follows: Australia, Netherlands, Eurasia, North American classes 1 and 2 (NAm 1 and NAm 2), Latin American groups A and B (LAm A and LAm B) and Africa. With the exception of the Eurasian cluster, those clades are considered phylogenetic species. Methodology/Principal Findings Increased Histoplasma sampling (n = 234) resulted in the revision of the phylogenetic distribution and population structure using 1,563 aligned nucleotides from four protein-coding regions. The LAm B clade appears to be divided into at least two highly supported clades, which are geographically restricted to either Colombia/Argentina or Brazil respectively. Moreover, a complex population genetic structure was identified within LAm A clade supporting multiple monophylogenetic species, which could be driven by rapid host or environmental adaptation (~0.5 MYA). We found two divergent clades, which include Latin American isolates (newly named as LAm A1 and LAm A2), harboring a cryptic cluster in association with bats. Conclusions/Significance At least six new phylogenetic species are proposed in the Histoplasma species complex supported by different phylogenetic and population genetics methods, comprising LAm A1, LAm A2, LAm B1, LAm B2, RJ and BAC-1 phylogenetic species. The genetic isolation of Histoplasma could be a result of differential dispersion potential of naturally infected bats and other mammals. In addition, the present study guides isolate selection for future population genomics and genome wide association studies in this

  3. Evolutionary dynamics of fluctuating populations with strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David

    2013-03-01

    Evolutionary game theory with finite interacting populations is receiving increased attention, including subtle phenomena associated with number fluctuations, i.e., ``genetic drift.'' Models of cooperation and competition often utilize a simplified Moran model, with a strictly fixed total population size. We explore a more general evolutionary model with independent fluctuations in the numbers of two distinct species, in a regime characterized by ``strong mutualism.'' The model has two absorbing states, each corresponding to fixation of one of the two species, and allows exploration of the interplay between growth, competition, and mutualism. When mutualism is favored, number fluctuations eventually drive the system away from a stable fixed point, characterized by cooperation, to one of the absorbing states. Well-mixed populations will thus be taken over by a single species in a finite time, despite the bias towards cooperation. We calculate both the fixation probability and the mean fixation time as a function of the initial conditions and carrying capacities in the strong mutualism regime, using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. Our results are compared to computer simulations.

  4. The Epidemiologic Transition: Changing Patterns of Mortality and Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    McKeown, Robert E.

    2009-01-01

    The epidemiologic transition describes changing patterns of population age distributions, mortality, fertility, life expectancy, and causes of death. A number of critiques of the theory have revealed limitations, including an insufficient account of the role of poverty in determining disease risk and mortality, a failure to distinguish adequately the risk of dying from a given cause or set of causes from the relative contributions of various causes of death to overall mortality, and oversimplification of the transition patterns, which do not fit neatly into either historical periods or geographic locations. Recent developments in epidemiologic methods reveal other limitations. A life course perspective prompts examination of changes in causal pathways across the life span when considering shifts in the age distribution of a population as described by the epidemiologic transition theory. The ecological model assumes multiple levels of determinants acting in complex and interrelated ways, with higher level determinants exhibiting emergent properties. Development, testing, and implementation of innovative approaches to reduce the risks associated with the sedentary lifestyle and hyper nutrition in developed countries should not overshadow the continuing threat from infectious diseases, especially resistant strains or newly encountered agents. Interventions must fit populations and the threats to health they experience, while anticipating changes that will emerge with success in some areas. This will require new ways of thinking that go beyond the epidemiologic transition theory. PMID:20161566

  5. Mechanical algal disruption for efficient biodiesel extraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krehbiel, Joel David

    Biodiesel from algae provides several benefits over current biodiesel feedstocks, but the energy requirements of processing algae into a useable fuel are currently so high as to be prohibitive. One route to improving this is via disruption of the cells prior to lipid extraction, which can significantly increase energy recovery. Unfortunately, several obvious disruption techniques require more energy than can be gained. This dissertation examines the use of microbubbles to improve mechanical disruption of algal cells using experimental, theoretical, and computational methods. New laboratory experiments show that effective ultrasonic disruption of algae is achieved by adding microbubbles to an algal solution. The configuration studied flows the solution through a tube and insonifies a small section with a high-pressure ultrasound wave. Previous biomedical research has shown effective cell membrane damage on animal cells with similar methods, but the present research is the first to extend such study to algal cells. Results indicate that disruption increases with peak negative pressure between 1.90 and 3.07 MPa and with microbubble concentration up to 12.5 x 107 bubbles/ml. Energy estimates of this process suggest that it requires only one-fourth the currently most-efficient laboratory-scale disruption process. Estimates of the radius near each bubble that causes disruption (i.e. the disruption radius) suggest that it increases with peak negative pressure and is near 9--20 microm for all cases tested. It is anticipated that these procedures can be designed for better efficiency and efficacy, which will be facilitated by identifying the root mechanisms of the bubble-induced disruption. We therefore examine whether bubble expansion alone creates sufficient cell deformation for cell rupture. The spherically-symmetric Marmottant model for bubble dynamics allows estimation of the flow regime under experimental conditions. Bubble expansion is modeled as a point source of

  6. Population dynamics and habitat sharing of natural populations of Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a major model organism in laboratory biology. Very little is known, however, about its ecology, including where it proliferates. In the past, C. elegans was mainly isolated from human-made compost heaps, where it was overwhelmingly found in the non-feeding dauer diapause stage. Results C. elegans and C. briggsae were found in large, proliferating populations in rotting plant material (fruits and stems) in several locations in mainland France. Both species were found to co-occur in samples isolated from a given plant species. Population counts spanned a range from one to more than 10,000 Caenorhabditis individuals on a single fruit or stem. Some populations with an intermediate census size (10 to 1,000) contained no dauer larvae at all, whereas larger populations always included some larvae in the pre-dauer or dauer stages. We report on associated micro-organisms, including pathogens. We systematically sampled a spatio-temporally structured set of rotting apples in an apple orchard in Orsay over four years. C. elegans and C. briggsae were abundantly found every year, but their temporal distributions did not coincide. C. briggsae was found alone in summer, whereas both species co-occurred in early fall and C. elegans was found alone in late fall. Competition experiments in the laboratory at different temperatures show that C. briggsae out-competes C. elegans at high temperatures, whereas C. elegans out-competes C. briggsae at lower temperatures. Conclusions C. elegans and C. briggsae proliferate in the same rotting vegetal substrates. In contrast to previous surveys of populations in compost heaps, we found fully proliferating populations with no dauer larvae. The temporal sharing of the habitat by the two species coincides with their temperature preference in the laboratory, with C. briggsae populations growing faster than C. elegans at higher temperatures, and vice at lower temperatures. PMID:22731941

  7. Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dugger, Bruce D.; Coluccy, John M.; Dugger, Katie M.; Fox, Trevor T.; Kraege, Donald K.; Petrie, Mark J.

    2016-01-01

    Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of

  8. Dynamics of chemically stressed populations: the deduction of population consequences from effects on individuals

    SciTech Connect

    Kooijman, S.A.; Metz, J.A.

    1984-06-01

    A general, simple, and explicit model for the age-dependent growth and reproduction of individuals as a function of food supply is presented. The model assumes a Holling-type functional response coupled with a von Bertalanffy body growth law, a fixed ratio between the energy utilized for reproduction and respiration, and a juvenile stage that ends as soon as the animal attains a sufficient weight. This model is shown to fit the available data on the development of Daphnia magna quite well. The model is used as a basis for studying the effects of chemicals on population growth rate, given the effects on individuals. Effects on individual growth and reproduction are reflected in a concentration-dependent relative reduction of the population growth rate. Effects on feeding rate, digestion, basal metabolism, and survival work out much more dramatically at low natural population growth rates. This already follows from a much simpler model that assumes age-independent reproduction, as exemplified to a good approximation by the rotifer Brachionus rubens. The theoretical results are supplemented with experimental evidence, implying that the stress on a population at a certain concentration of a chemical may indeed be strongly dependent on the feeding state of that population.

  9. Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

    2014-08-01

    Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

  10. Experimental Investigation on the Validity of Population Dynamics Approach to Bacterial Colony Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wakita, Jun-ichi; Komatsu, Kenji; Nakahara, Akio; Matsuyama, Tohey; Matsushita, Mitsugu

    1994-03-01

    We have investigated the dynamics of a two-dimensional spreading of a bacterial population in a surface environment. After point inoculation of flagellated bacteria ( Bacillus subtilis) on nutrient-rich semi-solid medium, the bacterial population grew up by multiplication and translocation of cells, and developed a homogeneous round colony. By comparing experimental results with those of numerical simulations of the model equation, we found that this homogeneous population growth of bacteria is an actual manifestation of growth dynamics described by the Fisher's equation.

  11. Influence of adaptation on the nonlinear dynamics of a system of competing populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dimitrova, Zlatinka I.; Vitanov, Nikolay K.

    2000-08-01

    We investigate the nonlinear dynamics of a system of populations competing for the same limited resource assuming that they can adapt their growth rates and competition coefficients with respect to the number of individuals of each population. The adaptation leads to an enrichment of the nonlinear dynamics of the system which is demonstrated by a discussion of new orbits in the phase space of the system, completely dependent on the adaptation parameters, as well as by an investigation of the influence of the adaptation parameters on the dynamics of a strange attractor of the model system of ODEs.

  12. DNA Analysis of Algal Endosymbionts of Ciliates Reveals the State of Algal Integration and the Surprising Specificity of the Symbiosis.

    PubMed

    Hoshina, Ryo; Kusuoka, Yasushi

    2016-04-01

    Many freshwater protists harbor unicellular green algae within their cells, but little is known of their degree of integration and specificity. Using algae-targeted PCR of whole ciliate cells collected at irregular intervals over 15 months from Lake Biwa, Japan, we explored the SSU-ITS rDNA of the endosymbiotic algae and its changes over time, obtaining sequences of algal rDNA fragments from four ciliate species. A high proportion of clonal algae was evident within the ciliate cells. The differences observed in those sequences from the SSU through to the ITS region were less than 1%. The name 'Chlorb' is proposed for these algae, with the implication that they represent a single 'species.' The sequences of the algal DNA fragments were identical for any given host species throughout the collection period, thus we conclude that these four ciliates stably retain their algae over long term. In contrast, algal DNA fragments obtained from Didinium sp. were variable within each sample, which indicates that this ciliate only temporarily holds its algal cells. The ITS1 sequences of Chlorb populations are close (at intraspecific level) to those of algae isolated from ciliates in Austria, which raises the possibility that Chlorb algae are universally shared as symbionts among various ciliates.

  13. Species with more volatile population dynamics are differentially impacted by weather.

    PubMed

    Harrison, Joshua G; Shapiro, Arthur M; Espeset, Anne E; Nice, Christopher C; Jahner, Joshua P; Forister, Matthew L

    2015-02-01

    Climatic variation has been invoked as an explanation of population dynamics for a variety of taxa. Much work investigating the link between climatic forcings and population fluctuation uses single-taxon case studies. Here, we conduct comparative analyses of a multi-decadal dataset describing population dynamics of 50 co-occurring butterfly species at 10 sites in Northern California. Specifically, we explore the potential commonality of response to weather among species that encompass a gradient of population dynamics via a hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework. Results of this analysis demonstrate that certain weather conditions impact volatile, or irruptive, species differently as compared with relatively stable species. Notably, precipitation-related variables, including indices of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, have a more pronounced impact on the most volatile species. We hypothesize that these variables influence vegetation resource availability, and thus indirectly influence population dynamics of volatile taxa. As one of the first studies to show a common influence of weather among taxa with similar population dynamics, the results presented here suggest new lines of research in the field of biotic-abiotic interactions.

  14. Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blakesley, J.A.; Seamans, M.E.; Conner, M.M.; Franklin, A.B.; White, Gary C.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Munton, T.E.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; Steger, G.N.; McDonald, T.L.

    2010-01-01

    The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data

  15. Reinforcement learning in complementarity game and population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Jost, Jürgen; Li, Wei

    2014-02-01

    We systematically test and compare different reinforcement learning schemes in a complementarity game [J. Jost and W. Li, Physica A 345, 245 (2005)] played between members of two populations. More precisely, we study the Roth-Erev, Bush-Mosteller, and SoftMax reinforcement learning schemes. A modified version of Roth-Erev with a power exponent of 1.5, as opposed to 1 in the standard version, performs best. We also compare these reinforcement learning strategies with evolutionary schemes. This gives insight into aspects like the issue of quick adaptation as opposed to systematic exploration or the role of learning rates.

  16. An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

    2014-03-01

    A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

  17. Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Christopher N; Brook, Barry W

    2011-12-22

    Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene.

  18. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    PubMed

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  19. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  20. Air pollutant production by algal cell cultures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fong, F.; Funkhouser, E. A.

    1982-01-01

    The production of phytotoxic air pollutants by cultures of Chlorella vulgaris and Euglena gracilis is considered. Algal and plant culture systems, a fumigation system, and ethylene, ethane, cyanide, and nitrogen oxides assays are discussed. Bean, tobacco, mustard green, cantaloupe and wheat plants all showed injury when fumigated with algal gases for 4 hours. Only coleus plants showed any resistance to the gases. It is found that a closed or recycled air effluent system does not produce plant injury from algal air pollutants.

  1. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. PMID:26747638

  2. Dynamics and drivers of hantavirus prevalence in rodent populations.

    PubMed

    Khalil, Hussein; Hörnfeldt, Birger; Evander, Magnus; Magnusson, Magnus; Olsson, Gert; Ecke, Frauke

    2014-08-01

    Human encroachment on wildlife habitats has contributed to the emergence of several zoonoses. Pathogenic hantaviruses are hosted by rodents and cause severe diseases in the Americas and Eurasia. We reviewed several factors that potentially drive prevalence (the proportion of infected rodents) in host populations. These include demography, behavior, host density, small mammal diversity, predation, and habitat and landscape characteristics. This review is the first to include a quantitative summary of the literature investigating hantavirus prevalence in rodents. Demographic structure and density were investigated the most and predation the least. Reported effects of demographic structure and small mammal diversity were consistent, whereby reproductive males were most likely to be infected and prevalence decreased with small mammal diversity. The influences of habitat and landscape properties are often complex and indirect. The relationship between density and prevalence merits more investigation. Most hantavirus hosts are habitat generalists and their control is challenging. Incorporating all potential factors and their interactions is essential to understanding and controlling infection in host populations.

  3. Evolutionary dynamics of collective action in spatially structured populations.

    PubMed

    Peña, Jorge; Nöldeke, Georg; Lehmann, Laurent

    2015-10-01

    Many models proposed to study the evolution of collective action rely on a formalism that represents social interactions as n-player games between individuals adopting discrete actions such as cooperate and defect. Despite the importance of spatial structure in biological collective action, the analysis of n-player games games in spatially structured populations has so far proved elusive. We address this problem by considering mixed strategies and by integrating discrete-action n-player games into the direct fitness approach of social evolution theory. This allows to conveniently identify convergence stable strategies and to capture the effect of population structure by a single structure coefficient, namely, the pairwise (scaled) relatedness among interacting individuals. As an application, we use our mathematical framework to investigate collective action problems associated with the provision of three different kinds of collective goods, paradigmatic of a vast array of helping traits in nature: "public goods" (both providers and shirkers can use the good, e.g., alarm calls), "club goods" (only providers can use the good, e.g., participation in collective hunting), and "charity goods" (only shirkers can use the good, e.g., altruistic sacrifice). We show that relatedness promotes the evolution of collective action in different ways depending on the kind of collective good and its economies of scale. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for relatedness, the kind of collective good, and the economies of scale in theoretical and empirical studies of the evolution of collective action. PMID:26151588

  4. Evolutionary dynamics of collective action in spatially structured populations.

    PubMed

    Peña, Jorge; Nöldeke, Georg; Lehmann, Laurent

    2015-10-01

    Many models proposed to study the evolution of collective action rely on a formalism that represents social interactions as n-player games between individuals adopting discrete actions such as cooperate and defect. Despite the importance of spatial structure in biological collective action, the analysis of n-player games games in spatially structured populations has so far proved elusive. We address this problem by considering mixed strategies and by integrating discrete-action n-player games into the direct fitness approach of social evolution theory. This allows to conveniently identify convergence stable strategies and to capture the effect of population structure by a single structure coefficient, namely, the pairwise (scaled) relatedness among interacting individuals. As an application, we use our mathematical framework to investigate collective action problems associated with the provision of three different kinds of collective goods, paradigmatic of a vast array of helping traits in nature: "public goods" (both providers and shirkers can use the good, e.g., alarm calls), "club goods" (only providers can use the good, e.g., participation in collective hunting), and "charity goods" (only shirkers can use the good, e.g., altruistic sacrifice). We show that relatedness promotes the evolution of collective action in different ways depending on the kind of collective good and its economies of scale. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for relatedness, the kind of collective good, and the economies of scale in theoretical and empirical studies of the evolution of collective action.

  5. Role of seasonality on predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Levy, Dorian; Harrington, Heather A; Van Gorder, Robert A

    2016-05-01

    The role of seasonality on predator-prey interactions in the presence of a resource subsidy is examined using a system of non-autonomous ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The problem is motivated by the Arctic, inhabited by the ecological system of arctic foxes (predator), lemmings (prey), and seal carrion (subsidy). We construct two nonlinear, nonautonomous systems of ODEs named the Primary Model, and the n-Patch Model. The Primary Model considers spatial factors implicitly, and the n-Patch Model considers space explicitly as a "Stepping Stone" system. We establish the boundedness of the dynamics, as well as the necessity of sufficiently nutritional food for the survival of the predator. We investigate the importance of including the resource subsidy explicitly in the model, and the importance of accounting for predator mortality during migration. We find a variety of non-equilibrium dynamics for both systems, obtaining both limit cycles and chaotic oscillations. We were then able to discuss relevant implications for biologically interesting predator-prey systems including subsidy under seasonal effects. Notably, we can observe the extinction or persistence of a species when the corresponding autonomous system might predict the opposite.

  6. Role of seasonality on predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Levy, Dorian; Harrington, Heather A; Van Gorder, Robert A

    2016-05-01

    The role of seasonality on predator-prey interactions in the presence of a resource subsidy is examined using a system of non-autonomous ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The problem is motivated by the Arctic, inhabited by the ecological system of arctic foxes (predator), lemmings (prey), and seal carrion (subsidy). We construct two nonlinear, nonautonomous systems of ODEs named the Primary Model, and the n-Patch Model. The Primary Model considers spatial factors implicitly, and the n-Patch Model considers space explicitly as a "Stepping Stone" system. We establish the boundedness of the dynamics, as well as the necessity of sufficiently nutritional food for the survival of the predator. We investigate the importance of including the resource subsidy explicitly in the model, and the importance of accounting for predator mortality during migration. We find a variety of non-equilibrium dynamics for both systems, obtaining both limit cycles and chaotic oscillations. We were then able to discuss relevant implications for biologically interesting predator-prey systems including subsidy under seasonal effects. Notably, we can observe the extinction or persistence of a species when the corresponding autonomous system might predict the opposite. PMID:26916622

  7. Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

  8. Changing Populations Through Immigration, Episode VII. Resource Material Development: Population Dynamics in Eighth Grade American History.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massialas, Byron G.; And Others

    This is the seventh unit in a series that introduces population concepts into the eighth grade American history curriculum. (See SO 013 782 for an overview of the guide.) In Episode VII, the history topic is America becomes a world power. Objectives are to help the student to (1) emphasize the forming of a conceptual understanding of the terms…

  9. Methods for removing contaminants from algal oil

    DOEpatents

    Lupton, Francis Stephen

    2016-09-27

    Methods for removing contaminants from algal oil are provided. In an embodiment, a method comprises the steps of combining a sulfuric acid-aqueous solution that has a pH of about 1 or less with a contaminant-containing algal oil at treatment conditions effective to form an effluent. The effluent comprises a treated algal oil phase and contaminants in an acidic aqueous phase. The contaminants comprise metals, phosphorus, or combinations thereof. The acidic aqueous phase is removed from the effluent to form a contaminant-depleted algal oil.

  10. Spatial variation in the effects of grazing on epilithic algal turfs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaldo, R. M.; Bellwood, D. R.

    2011-06-01

    Of all benthic components on tropical reefs, algal turfs are the most widespread and the main source of primary productivity. We compared the importance of grazing by herbivores on algal turfs on two zones with marked differences in terms of benthic composition, herbivore biomass and grazing pressure, the inner flat and crest, of an inshore reef on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. A combination of herbivore exclusion cages and transplants of coral rubble covered by algal turfs between reef zones was used to examine changes in algal turfs over a 4-day experimental period. In situ crest turfs had lower algal height, sediment loads and particulate content than reef flat turfs. Caged samples on the crest exhibited an increase in all three variables. In contrast, in situ and caged treatments on the flat presented algal turfs with similar values for the three analysed variables, with high algal height and heavy particulate and sediment loads. In the absence of cages, reef flat turfs transplanted to the crest had decreased algal height, total particulate material and particulate inorganic content, while the opposite was found in crest turf samples transplanted to the flat. Our results highlight the dynamic nature of algal turfs and the clear differences in the relative importance of herbivory in shaping turf length and sediment load between the reef crest and inner flat.

  11. Harvest timing and its population dynamic consequences in a discrete single-species model.

    PubMed

    Cid, Begoña; Hilker, Frank M; Liz, Eduardo

    2014-02-01

    The timing of harvesting is a key instrument in managing and exploiting biological populations and renewable resources. Yet, there is little theory on harvest timing, and even less is known about the impact of different harvest times on the stability of population dynamics, even though this may drive population variability and risk of extinction. Here, we employ the framework proposed by Seno to study how harvesting at specific moments in the reproductive season affects not only population size but also stability. For populations with overcompensation, intermediate harvest times tend to be stabilizing (by simplifying dynamics in the case of unimodal maps and by preventing bubbling in the case of bimodal maps). For populations with a strong Allee effect, however, intermediate harvest times can have a twofold effect. On the one hand, they facilitate population persistence (if harvesting effort is low). On the other hand, they provoke population extinction (if harvesting effort is high). Early harvesting, currently considered common sense to take advantage of compensatory effects, may cut into the breeding stock when the population has not yet surpassed the critical Allee threshold. The results in this paper highlight, for the first time, the crucial interplay between harvest timing and Allee effects. Moreover, they demonstrate that harvesting with the same effort but at different moments in time can dramatically alter the impact on the population.

  12. Exploitation of chemical signaling by parasitoids: impact on host population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lof, Marjolein E; De Gee, Maarten; Dicke, Marcel; Gort, Gerrit; Hemerik, Lia

    2013-06-01

    Chemical information mediates species interactions in a wide range of organisms. Yet, the effect of chemical information on population dynamics is rarely addressed. We designed a spatio-temporal parasitoid--host model to investigate the population dynamics when both the insect host and the parasitic wasp that attacks it can respond to chemical information. The host species, Drosophila melanogaster, uses food odors and aggregation pheromone to find a suitable resource for reproduction. The larval parasitoid, Leptopilina heterotoma, uses these same odors to find its hosts. We show that when parasitoids can respond to food odors, this negatively affects fruit fly population growth. However, extra parasitoid responsiveness to aggregation pheromone does not affect fruit fly population growth. Our results indicate that the use of the aggregation pheromone by D. melanogaster does not lead to an increased risk of parasitism. Moreover, the use of aggregation pheromone by the host enhances its population growth and enables it to persist at higher parasitoid densities. PMID:23689875

  13. Reinforcement learning in complementarity game and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jost, Jürgen; Li, Wei

    2014-02-01

    We systematically test and compare different reinforcement learning schemes in a complementarity game [J. Jost and W. Li, Physica A 345, 245 (2005), 10.1016/j.physa.2004.07.005] played between members of two populations. More precisely, we study the Roth-Erev, Bush-Mosteller, and SoftMax reinforcement learning schemes. A modified version of Roth-Erev with a power exponent of 1.5, as opposed to 1 in the standard version, performs best. We also compare these reinforcement learning strategies with evolutionary schemes. This gives insight into aspects like the issue of quick adaptation as opposed to systematic exploration or the role of learning rates.

  14. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    PubMed Central

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to ‘steal’ lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  15. Opinion Dynamics in Populations with Implicit Community Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Si, Xiameng; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Zhenjiang

    Web encounter facilitate contacts between people from different communities outside space and time. Implicit Community Structure is exhibited because of highly connected links within community and sparse encounters between communities. Considering the imperceptible influence of encounter on opinions, Sznajd updating rules are used to mimic people's behaviors after encountering a stranger in another community. We introduce a model for opinion evolution, in which the interconnectivity between different communities is represented as encounter frequency, and leadership is introduced to control the strength of community's opinion guide. In this scenario, the effects of Implicit Community Structure of contact network on opinion evolution, for asymmetric and random initial distribution but with heterogeneous opinion guide, are investigated respectively. It is shown that large encounter frequency favors consensus of the whole populations and successful opinion spreading, which is qualitatively agree with the results observed in Majority model defined on substrates with predefined community structure.

  16. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-07-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to `steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population.

  17. Modelling lipid competition dynamics in heterogeneous protocell populations.

    PubMed

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to 'steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  18. Optimum survival strategies against zombie infestations - a population dynamics approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mota, Bruno

    2014-03-01

    We model a zombie infestation by three coupled ODEs that jointly describe the time evolution of three populations: regular humans, zombies, and survivors (humans that have survived at least one zombie encounter). This can be generalized to take into account more levels of expertise and/or skill degradation. We compute the fixed points, and stability thereof, that correspond to one of three possible outcomes: human extinction, zombie extermination or, if one allows for a human non-zero birth-rate, co-habitation. We obtain analytically the optimum strategy for humans in terms of the model's parameters (essentially, whether to flee and hide, or fight). Zombies notwithstanding, this can also be seen as a toy model for infections of immune system cells, such as CD4+ T cells in AIDS, and macrophages in tuberculosis, whereby cells are both the target of infection, and mediate the acquired immunity response against the same infection. I thank FAPERJ for financial support.

  19. Effects of egg oiling on larid productivity and population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lewis, S.J.; Malecki, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    In this study, oil was applied to naturally incubated great black-backed gull (Larus marinus) and herring gull (L. argentatus) eggs, and its effects on reproductive success were assessed. Embryo survival was inversely proportional to the quantity of petroleum applied to eggshell surfaces. Dose responses, however, were dependent on embryonic age at the time of treatment. Eggs of either species, treated with 10-20 mu l of No. 2 fuel oil 4-8 days after laying, experienced significant reductions in hatching success. Embryos oiled past the midpoint of the 28-day incubation period were insensitive to as much as 100 mu l of petroleum. Fuel oil weathered outdoors for several weeks was as toxic as fresh oil to larid embryos. Only under severe conditions (e.g., large doses of petroleum contaminating young embryos) could egg oiling have a significant impact upon populations of the herring gull and species with similar life-history characteristics.

  20. Eukaryotic transcriptional dynamics: from single molecules to cell populations

    PubMed Central

    Coulon, Antoine; Chow, Carson C.; Singer, Robert H.; Larson, Daniel R.

    2013-01-01

    Transcriptional regulation is achieved through combinatorial interactions between regulatory elements in the human genome and a vast range of factors that modulate the recruitment and activity of RNA polymerase. Experimental approaches for studying transcription in vivo now extend from single-molecule techniques to genome-wide measurements. Parallel to these developments is the need for testable quantitative and predictive models for understanding gene regulation. These conceptual models must also provide insight into the dynamics of transcription and the variability that is observed at the single-cell level. In this Review, we discuss recent results on transcriptional regulation and also the models those results engender. We show how a non-equilibrium description informs our view of transcription by explicitly considering time-and energy-dependence at the molecular level. PMID:23835438

  1. Population dynamics and ecology of Arcobacter in sewage

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, Jenny C.; Levican, Arturo; Figueras, María J.; McLellan, Sandra L.

    2014-01-01

    Arcobacter species are highly abundant in sewage where they often comprise approximately 5–11% of the bacterial community. Oligotyping of sequences amplified from the V4V5 region of the 16S rRNA gene revealed Arcobacter populations from different cities were similar and dominated by 1–3 members, with extremely high microdiversity in the minor members. Overall, nine subgroups within the Arcobacter genus accounted for >80% of the total Arcobacter sequences in all samples analyzed. The distribution of oligotypes varied by both sample site and temperature, with samples from the same site generally being more similar to each other than other sites. Seven oligotypes matched with 100% identity to characterized Arcobacter species, but the remaining 19 abundant oligotypes appear to be unknown species. Sequences representing the two most abundant oligotypes matched exactly to the reference strains for A. cryaerophilus group 1B (CCUG 17802) and group 1A (CCUG 17801T), respectively. Oligotype 1 showed generally lower relative abundance in colder samples and higher relative abundance in warmer samples; the converse was true for Oligotype 2. Ten other oligotypes had significant positive or negative correlations between temperature and proportion in samples as well. The oligotype that corresponded to A. butzleri, the Arcobacter species most commonly isolated by culturing in sewage studies, was only the eleventh most abundant oligotype. This work suggests that Arcobacter populations within sewer infrastructure are modulated by temperature. Furthermore, current culturing methods used for identification of Arcobacter fail to identify some abundant members of the community and may underestimate the presence of species with affinities for growth at lower temperatures. Understanding the ecological factors that affect the survival and growth of Arcobacter spp. in sewer infrastructure may better inform the risks associated with these emerging pathogens. PMID:25426103

  2. Effects of Infection on Honey Bee Population Dynamics: A Model

    PubMed Central

    Betti, Matt I.; Wahl, Lindi M.; Zamir, Mair

    2014-01-01

    We propose a model that combines the dynamics of the spread of disease within a bee colony with the underlying demographic dynamics of the colony to determine the ultimate fate of the colony under different scenarios. The model suggests that key factors in the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of an infection are the rate of transmission of the infection and the disease-induced death rate. An increase in the disease-induced death rate, which can be thought of as an increase in the severity of the disease, may actually help the colony overcome the disease and survive through winter. By contrast, an increase in the transmission rate, which means that bees are being infected at an earlier age, has a drastic deleterious effect. Another important finding relates to the timing of infection in relation to the onset of winter, indicating that in a time interval of approximately 20 days before the onset of winter the colony is most affected by the onset of infection. The results suggest further that the age of recruitment of hive bees to foraging duties is a good early marker for the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of infection, which is consistent with experimental evidence but the model provides insight into the underlying mechanisms. The most important result of the study is a clear distinction between an exposure of the honey bee colony to an environmental hazard such as pesticides or insecticides, or an exposure to an infectious disease. The results indicate unequivocally that in the scenarios that we have examined, and perhaps more generally, an infectious disease is far more hazardous to the survival of a bee colony than an environmental hazard that causes an equal death rate in foraging bees. PMID:25329468

  3. Effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.

    PubMed

    Betti, Matt I; Wahl, Lindi M; Zamir, Mair

    2014-01-01

    We propose a model that combines the dynamics of the spread of disease within a bee colony with the underlying demographic dynamics of the colony to determine the ultimate fate of the colony under different scenarios. The model suggests that key factors in the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of an infection are the rate of transmission of the infection and the disease-induced death rate. An increase in the disease-induced death rate, which can be thought of as an increase in the severity of the disease, may actually help the colony overcome the disease and survive through winter. By contrast, an increase in the transmission rate, which means that bees are being infected at an earlier age, has a drastic deleterious effect. Another important finding relates to the timing of infection in relation to the onset of winter, indicating that in a time interval of approximately 20 days before the onset of winter the colony is most affected by the onset of infection. The results suggest further that the age of recruitment of hive bees to foraging duties is a good early marker for the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of infection, which is consistent with experimental evidence but the model provides insight into the underlying mechanisms. The most important result of the study is a clear distinction between an exposure of the honey bee colony to an environmental hazard such as pesticides or insecticides, or an exposure to an infectious disease. The results indicate unequivocally that in the scenarios that we have examined, and perhaps more generally, an infectious disease is far more hazardous to the survival of a bee colony than an environmental hazard that causes an equal death rate in foraging bees.

  4. Plankton communities and summertime declines in algal abundance associated with low dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carpenter, Kurt D.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2013-01-01

    Phytoplankton populations in the Tualatin River in northwestern Oregon are an important component of the dissolved oxygen (DO) budget of the river and are critical for maintaining DO levels in summer. During the low-flow summer period, sufficient nutrients and a long residence time typically combine with ample sunshine and warm water to fuel blooms of cryptophyte algae, diatoms, green and blue-green algae in the low-gradient, slow-moving reservoir reach of the lower river. Algae in the Tualatin River generally drift with the water rather than attach to the river bottom as a result of moderate water depths, slightly elevated turbidity caused by suspended colloidal material, and dominance of silty substrates. Growth of algae occurs as if on a “conveyor belt” of streamflow, a dynamic system that is continually refreshed with inflowing water. Transit through the system can take as long as 2 weeks during the summer low-flow period. Photosynthetic production of DO during algal blooms is important in offsetting oxygen consumption at the sediment-water interface caused by the decomposition of organic matter from primarily terrestrial sources, and the absence of photosynthesis can lead to low DO concentrations that can harm aquatic life. The periods with the lowest DO concentrations in recent years (since 2003) typically occur in August following a decline in algal abundance and activity, when DO concentrations often decrease to less than State standards for extended periods (nearly 80 days). Since 2003, algal populations have tended to be smaller and algal blooms have terminated earlier compared to conditions in the 1990s, leading to more frequent declines in DO to levels that do not meet State standards. This study was developed to document the current abundance and species composition of phytoplankton in the Tualatin River, identify the possible causes of the general decline in algae, and evaluate hypotheses to explain why algal blooms diminish in midsummer. Plankton

  5. The role of harvesting in age-structured populations: disentangling dynamic and age truncation effects.

    PubMed

    Wikström, Anders; Ripa, Jörgen; Jonzén, Niclas

    2012-12-01

    Understanding the processes generating fluctuations of natural populations lies at the very heart of academic ecology. It is also very important for applications such as fisheries management and pest control. We are interested in the effect of harvesting on population fluctuations and for that purpose we develop and analyze an age-structured model where recruitment is a stochastic process and the adult segment of the population is harvested. When a constant annual harvest is taken the coefficient of variation of the adult population increases for most parameter values due to the age truncation effect, i.e. an increased variability in a juvenescent population due to the removal of older individuals. However, if a constant proportion of the adults is harvested the age truncation effect is sometimes counteracted by a stabilizing dynamic effect of harvesting. Depending on parameter values mirroring different life histories, proportional harvest can either increase or decrease the relative fluctuations of an exploited population. When there is a demographic Allee effect the ratio of juveniles to adults may actually decrease with harvesting. We conclude that, depending on life history and harvest strategy, harvesting can either reinforce or dampen population fluctuations due to the relative importance of stabilizing dynamic effects and the age truncation effect. The strength of the latter is highly dependent on the fished population's endogenous, age-structured dynamics. More specifically, we predict that populations with strong and positively autocorrelated dynamics will show stronger age truncation effect, a testable prediction that offers a simple rule-of-thumb assessment of a population's vulnerability to exploitation.

  6. Exploring Population Admixture Dynamics via Empirical and Simulated Genome-wide Distribution of Ancestral Chromosomal Segments

    PubMed Central

    Jin, Wenfei; Wang, Sijia; Wang, Haifeng; Jin, Li; Xu, Shuhua

    2012-01-01

    The processes of genetic admixture determine the haplotype structure and linkage disequilibrium patterns of the admixed population, which is important for medical and evolutionary studies. However, most previous studies do not consider the inherent complexity of admixture processes. Here we proposed two approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, and we demonstrated, by analyzing genome-wide empirical and simulated data, that the approach based on the distribution of chromosomal segments of distinct ancestry (CSDAs) was more powerful than that based on the distribution of individual ancestry proportions. Analysis of 1,890 African Americans showed that a continuous gene flow model, in which the African American population continuously received gene flow from European populations over about 14 generations, best explained the admixture dynamics of African Americans among several putative models. Interestingly, we observed that some African Americans had much more European ancestry than the simulated samples, indicating substructures of local ancestries in African Americans that could have been caused by individuals from some particular lineages having repeatedly admixed with people of European ancestry. In contrast, the admixture dynamics of Mexicans could be explained by a gradual admixture model in which the Mexican population continuously received gene flow from both European and Amerindian populations over about 24 generations. Our results also indicated that recent gene flows from Sub-Saharan Africans have contributed to the gene pool of Middle Eastern populations such as Mozabite, Bedouin, and Palestinian. In summary, this study not only provides approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, but also advances our understanding on population history of African Americans, Mexicans, and Middle Eastern populations. PMID:23103229

  7. Repeatable Population Dynamics among Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Lineages Evolved under High Co-infection

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Elizabeth S. C. P.; Morales, Nadya M.; Wasik, Brian R.; Brusic, Vesna; Whelan, Sean P. J.; Turner, Paul E.

    2016-01-01

    Parasites and hosts can experience oscillatory cycles, where the densities of these interacting species dynamically fluctuate through time. Viruses with different replication strategies can also interact to produce cyclical dynamics. Frequent cellular co-infection can select for defective-interfering particles (DIPs): “cheater” viruses with shortened genomes that interfere with intracellular replication of full-length (ordinary) viruses. DIPs are positively selected when rare because they out-replicate ordinary viruses during co-infection, but DIPs are negatively selected when common because ordinary viruses become unavailable for intracellular exploitation via cheating. Here, we tested whether oscillatory dynamics of ordinary viruses were similar across independently evolved populations of vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV). Results showed identical cyclical dynamics across populations in the first 10 experimental passages, which transitioned to repeatable dampened oscillations by passage 20. Genomic analyses revealed parallel molecular substitutions across populations, particularly novel mutations that became dominant by passage 10. Our study showed that oscillatory dynamics and molecular evolution of interacting viruses were highly repeatable in VSV populations passaged under frequent co-infection. Furthermore, our data suggested that frequent co-infection with DIPs caused lowered performance of full-length viruses, by reducing their population densities by orders of magnitude compared to reproduction of ordinary viruses during strictly clonal infections. PMID:27065953

  8. Repeatable Population Dynamics among Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Lineages Evolved under High Co-infection.

    PubMed

    Williams, Elizabeth S C P; Morales, Nadya M; Wasik, Brian R; Brusic, Vesna; Whelan, Sean P J; Turner, Paul E

    2016-01-01

    Parasites and hosts can experience oscillatory cycles, where the densities of these interacting species dynamically fluctuate through time. Viruses with different replication strategies can also interact to produce cyclical dynamics. Frequent cellular co-infection can select for defective-interfering particles (DIPs): "cheater" viruses with shortened genomes that interfere with intracellular replication of full-length (ordinary) viruses. DIPs are positively selected when rare because they out-replicate ordinary viruses during co-infection, but DIPs are negatively selected when common because ordinary viruses become unavailable for intracellular exploitation via cheating. Here, we tested whether oscillatory dynamics of ordinary viruses were similar across independently evolved populations of vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV). Results showed identical cyclical dynamics across populations in the first 10 experimental passages, which transitioned to repeatable dampened oscillations by passage 20. Genomic analyses revealed parallel molecular substitutions across populations, particularly novel mutations that became dominant by passage 10. Our study showed that oscillatory dynamics and molecular evolution of interacting viruses were highly repeatable in VSV populations passaged under frequent co-infection. Furthermore, our data suggested that frequent co-infection with DIPs caused lowered performance of full-length viruses, by reducing their population densities by orders of magnitude compared to reproduction of ordinary viruses during strictly clonal infections. PMID:27065953

  9. Population and Evolutionary Dynamics based on Predator-Prey Relationships in a 3D Physical Simulation.

    PubMed

    Ito, Takashi; Pilat, Marcin L; Suzuki, Reiji; Arita, Takaya

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have reported that population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics, occurring at different time scales, can be affected by each other. Our purpose is to explore the interaction between population and evolutionary dynamics using an artificial life approach based on a 3D physically simulated environment in the context of predator-prey and morphology-behavior coevolution. The morphologies and behaviors of virtual prey creatures are evolved using a genetic algorithm based on the predation interactions between predators and prey. Both population sizes are also changed, depending on the fitness. We observe two types of cyclic behaviors, corresponding to short-term and long-term dynamics. The former can be interpreted as a simple population dynamics of Lotka-Volterra type. It is shown that the latter cycle is based on the interaction between the changes in the prey strategy against predators and the long-term change in both population sizes, resulting partly from a tradeoff between their defensive success and the cost of defense.

  10. Single-cell variation leads to population invariance in NF-κB signaling dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Hughey, Jacob J.; Gutschow, Miriam V.; Bajar, Bryce T.; Covert, Markus W.

    2015-01-01

    The activation dynamics of nuclear factor (NF)-κB have been shown to affect downstream gene expression. On activation, NF-κB shuttles back and forth across the nuclear envelope. Many dynamic features of this shuttling have been characterized, and most features vary significantly with respect to ligand type and concentration. Here, we report an invariant feature with regard to NF-κB dynamics in cellular populations: the distribution—the average, as well as the variance—of the time between two nuclear entries (the period). We find that this period is conserved, regardless of concentration and across several different ligands. Intriguingly, the distributions observed at the population level are not observed in individual cells over 20-h time courses. Instead, the average period of NF-κB nuclear translocation varies considerably among single cells, and the variance is much smaller within a cell than that of the population. Finally, analysis of daughter-cell pairs and isogenic populations indicates that the dynamics of the NF-κB response is heritable but diverges over multiple divisions, on the time scale of weeks to months. These observations are contrary to the existing theory of NF-κB dynamics and suggest an additional level of control that regulates the overall distribution of translocation timing at the population level. PMID:25473117

  11. Population and Evolutionary Dynamics based on Predator-Prey Relationships in a 3D Physical Simulation.

    PubMed

    Ito, Takashi; Pilat, Marcin L; Suzuki, Reiji; Arita, Takaya

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have reported that population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics, occurring at different time scales, can be affected by each other. Our purpose is to explore the interaction between population and evolutionary dynamics using an artificial life approach based on a 3D physically simulated environment in the context of predator-prey and morphology-behavior coevolution. The morphologies and behaviors of virtual prey creatures are evolved using a genetic algorithm based on the predation interactions between predators and prey. Both population sizes are also changed, depending on the fitness. We observe two types of cyclic behaviors, corresponding to short-term and long-term dynamics. The former can be interpreted as a simple population dynamics of Lotka-Volterra type. It is shown that the latter cycle is based on the interaction between the changes in the prey strategy against predators and the long-term change in both population sizes, resulting partly from a tradeoff between their defensive success and the cost of defense. PMID:26934093

  12. Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years.

    PubMed

    Horreo, Jose Luis; Jiménez-Valverde, Alberto; Fitze, Patrick S

    2016-05-01

    While ecological effects on short-term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life-history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long-term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation.

  13. Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years.

    PubMed

    Horreo, Jose Luis; Jiménez-Valverde, Alberto; Fitze, Patrick S

    2016-05-01

    While ecological effects on short-term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life-history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long-term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation. PMID:26666533

  14. Population-Dynamic Modeling of Bacterial Horizontal Gene Transfer by Natural Transformation.

    PubMed

    Mao, Junwen; Lu, Ting

    2016-01-01

    Natural transformation is a major mechanism of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and plays an essential role in bacterial adaptation, evolution, and speciation. Although its molecular underpinnings have been increasingly revealed, natural transformation is not well characterized in terms of its quantitative ecological roles. Here, by using Neisseria gonorrhoeae as an example, we developed a population-dynamic model for natural transformation and analyzed its dynamic characteristics with nonlinear tools and simulations. Our study showed that bacteria capable of natural transformation can display distinct population behaviors ranging from extinction to coexistence and to bistability, depending on their HGT rate and selection coefficient. With the model, we also illustrated the roles of environmental DNA sources-active secretion and passive release-in impacting population dynamics. Additionally, by constructing and utilizing a stochastic version of the model, we examined how noise shapes the steady and dynamic behaviors of the system. Notably, we found that distinct waiting time statistics for HGT events, namely a power-law distribution, an exponential distribution, and a mix of the both, are associated with the dynamics in the regimes of extinction, coexistence, and bistability accordingly. This work offers a quantitative illustration of natural transformation by revealing its complex population dynamics and associated characteristics, therefore advancing our ecological understanding of natural transformation as well as HGT in general.

  15. Population-Dynamic Modeling of Bacterial Horizontal Gene Transfer by Natural Transformation.

    PubMed

    Mao, Junwen; Lu, Ting

    2016-01-01

    Natural transformation is a major mechanism of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and plays an essential role in bacterial adaptation, evolution, and speciation. Although its molecular underpinnings have been increasingly revealed, natural transformation is not well characterized in terms of its quantitative ecological roles. Here, by using Neisseria gonorrhoeae as an example, we developed a population-dynamic model for natural transformation and analyzed its dynamic characteristics with nonlinear tools and simulations. Our study showed that bacteria capable of natural transformation can display distinct population behaviors ranging from extinction to coexistence and to bistability, depending on their HGT rate and selection coefficient. With the model, we also illustrated the roles of environmental DNA sources-active secretion and passive release-in impacting population dynamics. Additionally, by constructing and utilizing a stochastic version of the model, we examined how noise shapes the steady and dynamic behaviors of the system. Notably, we found that distinct waiting time statistics for HGT events, namely a power-law distribution, an exponential distribution, and a mix of the both, are associated with the dynamics in the regimes of extinction, coexistence, and bistability accordingly. This work offers a quantitative illustration of natural transformation by revealing its complex population dynamics and associated characteristics, therefore advancing our ecological understanding of natural transformation as well as HGT in general. PMID:26745428

  16. Gaining insight in the interaction of zinc and population density with a combined dynamic energy budget and population model.

    PubMed

    Klok, Chris

    2008-12-01

    Laboratory tests are typically conducted under optimal conditions testing the single effect of a toxicant In the field, due to suboptimal conditions, density dependence can both diminish and enhance effects of toxicants on populations. A review of the literature indicated that general insight on interaction of density and toxicants is lacking, and therefore no predictions on their combined action can be made. In this paper the influence of zinc was tested at different population densities on the demographic rates: growth, reproduction, and survival in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Changes in these rates were extrapolated with a combined Dynamic energy budget (DEB) and a population model to assess consequences at the population level. Inference from the DEB model indicated that density decreased the assimilation of food whereas zinc increased the maintenance costs. The combined effects of density and zinc resulted in a decrease in the intrinsic rate of population increase which suddenly dropped to zero at combinations of zinc and density where development is so strongly retarded that individuals do not mature. This already happened at zinc levels where zinc induced mortality is low and therefore density enhances zinc effects and density dependent compensation is not expected. PMID:19192801

  17. The Influence of Synaptic Weight Distribution on Neuronal Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Buice, Michael; Koch, Christof; Mihalas, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    The manner in which different distributions of synaptic weights onto cortical neurons shape their spiking activity remains open. To characterize a homogeneous neuronal population, we use the master equation for generalized leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with shot-noise synapses. We develop fast semi-analytic numerical methods to solve this equation for either current or conductance synapses, with and without synaptic depression. We show that its solutions match simulations of equivalent neuronal networks better than those of the Fokker-Planck equation and we compute bounds on the network response to non-instantaneous synapses. We apply these methods to study different synaptic weight distributions in feed-forward networks. We characterize the synaptic amplitude distributions using a set of measures, called tail weight numbers, designed to quantify the preponderance of very strong synapses. Even if synaptic amplitude distributions are equated for both the total current and average synaptic weight, distributions with sparse but strong synapses produce higher responses for small inputs, leading to a larger operating range. Furthermore, despite their small number, such synapses enable the network to respond faster and with more stability in the face of external fluctuations. PMID:24204219

  18. Dynamics of a yellow perch population in western Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bronte, Charles R.; Selgeby, James H.; Swedberg, Donald V.

    1993-01-01

    Yellow perch Perca flavescens were sampled annually in 1973–1988 with bottom trawls in Chequamegon Bay, Lake Superior. Biomass averaged l.6 kg/hectare. Fish l–3 years old made up 64% of the biomass, whereas fish of harvestable size (≥4 years old) made up only 31% of the biomass. Year-class strength was variable among years, but a Ricker recruitment function described the relation between year-class strength and parental stock size, Age-specific mortality increased substantially as fish became sexually mature at age 4, perhaps as a result of energy depletion associated with high reproductive and maintenance costs in a suboptimal thermal environment. Yield-per-recruit analysis indicated that most of the age-specific annual mortality was due to natural causes. Natural mortality, rather than limited recruitment or fishing mortality, was the major factor controlling harvestable stock size, Regardless of the size of a year-class produced, natural mortality greatly reduced its abundance prior to maturity and recruitment to the fishable stock. This high mortality, combined with very slow growth, limits the biomass potential of the harvestable stock, and sustainable yields from this population are therefore low.

  19. Dynamics of Pleistocene population extinctions in Beringian brown bears.

    PubMed

    Barnes, I; Matheus, P; Shapiro, B; Jensen, D; Cooper, A

    2002-03-22

    The climatic and environmental changes associated with the last glaciation (90,000 to 10,000 years before the present; 90 to 10 ka B.P.) are an important example of the effects of global climate change on biological diversity. These effects were particularly marked in Beringia (northeastern Siberia, northwestern North America, and the exposed Bering Strait) during the late Pleistocene. To investigate the evolutionary impact of these events, we studied genetic change in the brown bear, Ursus arctos, in eastern Beringia over the past 60,000 years using DNA preserved in permafrost remains. A marked degree of genetic structure is observed in populations throughout this period despite local extinctions, reinvasions, and potential interspecies competition with the short-faced bear, Arctodus simus. The major phylogeographic changes occurred 35 to 21 ka B.P., before the glacial maximum, and little change is observed after this time. Late Pleistocene histories of mammalian taxa may be more complex than those that might be inferred from the fossil record or contemporary DNA sequences alone. PMID:11910112

  20. Population dynamics of intraguild predation in a lattice gas system.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuanshi; Wu, Hong

    2015-01-01

    In the system of intraguild predation (IGP) we are concerned with, species that are in a predator-prey relationship, also compete for shared resources (space or food). While several models have been established to characterize IGP, mechanisms by which IG prey and IG predator can coexist in IGP systems with spatial competition, have not been shown. This paper considers an IGP model, which is derived from reactions on lattice and has a form similar to that of Lotka-Volterra equations. Dynamics of the model demonstrate properties of IGP and mechanisms by which the IGP leads to coexistence of species and occurrence of alternative states. Intermediate predation is shown to lead to persistence of the predator, while extremely big predation can lead to extinction of one/both species and extremely small predation can lead to extinction of the predator. Numerical computations confirm and extend our results. While empirical observations typically exhibit coexistence of IG predator and IG prey, theoretical analysis in this work demonstrates exact conditions under which this coexistence can occur.

  1. Population dynamics of intraguild predation in a lattice gas system.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuanshi; Wu, Hong

    2015-01-01

    In the system of intraguild predation (IGP) we are concerned with, species that are in a predator-prey relationship, also compete for shared resources (space or food). While several models have been established to characterize IGP, mechanisms by which IG prey and IG predator can coexist in IGP systems with spatial competition, have not been shown. This paper considers an IGP model, which is derived from reactions on lattice and has a form similar to that of Lotka-Volterra equations. Dynamics of the model demonstrate properties of IGP and mechanisms by which the IGP leads to coexistence of species and occurrence of alternative states. Intermediate predation is shown to lead to persistence of the predator, while extremely big predation can lead to extinction of one/both species and extremely small predation can lead to extinction of the predator. Numerical computations confirm and extend our results. While empirical observations typically exhibit coexistence of IG predator and IG prey, theoretical analysis in this work demonstrates exact conditions under which this coexistence can occur. PMID:25447811

  2. Relative importance of natural disturbances and habitat degradation on snail kite population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Oli, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Natural disturbances and habitat degradation are major factors influencing the dynamics and persistence of many wildlife populations, yet few large-scale studies have explored the relative influence of these factors on the dynamics and persistence of animal populations. We used longterm demographic data and matrix population models to examine the potential effects of habitat degradation and natural disturbances on the dynamics of the endangered snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis in Florida, USA. We found that estimates of stochastic population growth rate were low (0.90). Population growth rate (??) during the first half or our study period (1992 to 1998) was substantially greater than during the second half (1999 to 2005). These 2 periods were characterized by contrasting hydrological conditions. Although ?? was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, the analysis of life table response experiments revealed that a reduction in fertility of kites accounted for >80% of the observed decline in population growth rate. We examined the possibility that the reduction in ?? was caused by (1) habitat degradation due to management, (2) an increase in frequency of moderate drying events in recent years, and (3) both habitat degradation and an increase in frequency of moderate drying events. Our results suggest that both factors could potentially contribute to a large decrease in population growth rate. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering short- and long-term effects of disturbances when modeling population dynamics. Indeed, focusing exclusively on one type of effect may be misleading to both our understanding of the ecological dynamics of the system and to management. The relevance of our results to management is heightened because the snail kite has been selected as a key performance measure of one of the most ambitious ecosystem restoration projects ever undertaken. ?? Inter-Research 2008.

  3. Contrasting dynamics of a mutator allele in asexual populations of differing size.

    PubMed

    Raynes, Yevgeniy; Gazzara, Matthew R; Sniegowski, Paul D

    2012-07-01

    Mutators have been shown to hitchhike in asexual populations when the anticipated beneficial mutation supply rate of the mutator subpopulation, NU(b) (for subpopulation of size N and beneficial mutation rate U(b)) exceeds that of the wild-type subpopulation. Here, we examine the effect of total population size on mutator dynamics in asexual experimental populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Although mutators quickly hitchhike to fixation in smaller populations, mutator fixation requires more and more time as population size increases; this observed delay in mutator hitchhiking is consistent with the expected effect of clonal interference. Interestingly, despite their higher beneficial mutation supply rate, mutators are supplanted by the wild type in very large populations. We postulate that this striking reversal in mutator dynamics is caused by an interaction between clonal interference, the fitness cost of the mutator allele, and infrequent large-effect beneficial mutations in our experimental populations. Our work thus identifies a potential set of circumstances under which mutator hitchhiking can be inhibited in natural asexual populations, despite recent theoretical predictions that such populations should have a net tendency to evolve ever-higher genomic mutation rates.

  4. Modelling the Dynamics of Feral Alfalfa Populations and Its Management Implications

    PubMed Central

    Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V.; Begg, Graham S.; Gulden, Robert H.; Van Acker, Rene C.

    2012-01-01

    Background Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. Conclusions/Significance Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific

  5. FITPOP, a heuristic simulation model of population dynamics and genetics with special reference to fisheries

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKenna, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Although, perceiving genetic differences and their effects on fish population dynamics is difficult, simulation models offer a means to explore and illustrate these effects. I partitioned the intrinsic rate of increase parameter of a simple logistic-competition model into three components, allowing specification of effects of relative differences in fitness and mortality, as well as finite rate of increase. This model was placed into an interactive, stochastic environment to allow easy manipulation of model parameters (FITPOP). Simulation results illustrated the effects of subtle differences in genetic and population parameters on total population size, overall fitness, and sensitivity of the system to variability. Several consequences of mixing genetically distinct populations were illustrated. For example, behaviors such as depression of population size after initial introgression and extirpation of native stocks due to continuous stocking of genetically inferior fish were reproduced. It also was shown that carrying capacity relative to the amount of stocking had an important influence on population dynamics. Uncertainty associated with parameter estimates reduced confidence in model projections. The FITPOP model provided a simple tool to explore population dynamics, which may assist in formulating management strategies and identifying research needs.

  6. Langevin Formalism as the Basis for the Unification of Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vladar, Harold P.

    2005-03-01

    We are presenting a simple reformulation to population dynamics that generalizes many growth functions. The reformulation consists of two equations, one for population size, and one for the growth rate. The model shows that even when a population is density-dependent the dynamics of its growth rate does not depend explicitly neither on population size nor on the carrying capacity. Actually, the growth rate is uncoupled from the population size equation. The model has only two parameters: a Malthusian parameter ρ and an interaction coefficient θ. Distinct values of these parameters reproduce the family of θ-logistics, the van Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Potential Growth equations, among other possibilities. Stochastic perturbations to the Malthusian parameter leads to a Langevin form of stochastic differential equation consisting of a family of cubic potentials perturbed with multiplicative noise. Using these equtions, we derive the stationary Fokker Plank distribution which which shows that in the stationary dynamics, density dependent populations fluctuate around a mean size that is shifted from the carrying capacity proportionally to the noise intensity. We also study which kinds of populations are susceptible to noise induced transitions.

  7. Dynamic aspects of prescription drug use in an elderly population.

    PubMed Central

    Stuart, B; Coulson, N E

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVE. This study explores longitudinal patterns in outpatient prescription drug use in an elderly population. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING. Enrollment records and prescription drug claims were obtained for a sample of elderly Pennsylvanians (N = 27,301) who had enrolled in the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly (PACE) program at any time between July 1984 and June 1987. Study Design. The study tracks monthly prescription fill rates for sampled PACE beneficiaries from their initial enrollment month through disenrollment, death, or the end of the study (whichever occurred first). We specify two-part multivariate models to assess the effect of calendar time, length of time in the PACE program, and progression to disenrollment or death both on the probability of any prescription use and on the level of use among those who filled at least one prescription claim per month. Control variables include age, gender, race, income, residence, and marital status. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS. Data were extracted from administrative files maintained by the PACE program, checked for errors, and then formatted as person-month records. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS/CONCLUSIONS. We find a strong positive relationship between drug use and the length of time persons are PACE-enrolled. Persons whose death occurs within a year have much higher prescription utilization rates than do persons whose death is at least a year away, and the differential increases as death nears. Persons who fail to renew PACE coverage use significantly fewer prescription drugs in the year prior to disenrollment. Holding age and other factors constant, we find that average levels of prescription use actually declined over the study period. PMID:8514502

  8. Remotely Sensing Larval Population Dynamics of Rice Field Anophelines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beck, Louisa R.; Dister, Sheri W.; Wood, Byron L.; Washino, Robert K.

    1997-01-01

    The primary objective of both studies was to determine if RS and GIS techniques could be used to distinguish between high and low larval-producing rice fields in California. Results of the first study suggested that early-season green-up and proximity to livestock pastures were positively correlated with high larval abundance. Based on the early-season spectral differences between high and low larval-producing fields, it appeared that canopy development and tillering influenced mosquito habitat quality. At that time, rice fields consisted of a mixture of plants and water, a combination that allowed An. freeborni females to lay eggs in partial sunlight, protected from both predators and wind. This established a population earlier in the season than in other, 'less-green' fields where tillering and plant emergence was too minimal for ovipositioning. The study also indicated the importance of the distance that a mosquito would have to fly in order to take a bloodmeal prior to ovipositing. These associations were fully explored in an expanded study two years later. The second study confirmed the positive relationship between early season canopy development and larval abundance, and also demonstrated the relationship between abundance and distance-to-pasture. The association between greenness (as measured using NDVI), distance-to-pasture, and abundance is illustrated. The second study also indicated the siginificance of the landscape context of rice fields for larval production. Fields that included opportunities for feeding and resting within the flight range of the mosquito had higher abundances than did fields that were in a homogeneous rice area.

  9. Eco-evolutionary dynamics: fluctuations in population growth rate reduce effective population size in chinook salmon.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Jensen, David W; McClure, Michelle

    2010-03-01

    We empirically assess the relationship between population growth rate (lambda, a parameter central to ecology) and effective population size (N(e), a key parameter in evolutionary biology). Recent theoretical and numerical studies indicate that in semelparous species with variable age at maturity (such as Pacific salmon, many monocarpic plants, and various other species), differences in mean reproductive success among individuals reproducing in different years leads to variation in lambda, and this in turn can reduce N(e). However, this phenomenon has received little empirical evaluation. We examined time series of abundance data for 56 populations of chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha) from the northwestern United States and compared N(e) (calculated from demographic data) with the total number of spawners each generation (NT). Important results include: (1) The mean multigenerational ratio N(e)/N(T) was 0.64 (median = 0.67), indicating that annual variation in lambda reduces effective population size in chinook salmon by an average of approximately 35%. These reductions are independent of, and in addition to, factors that reduce N(e) within individual cohorts (uneven sex ratio and greater-than-random variance in reproductive success). (2) The coefficient of variation of lambda was the most important factor associated with reductions in N(e), explaining up to two-thirds of the variance in N(e)/N(T). (3) Within individual generations, N(e) was lower when there was a negative correlation between annual N(i) and lambda, i.e., when relatively few breeders produced relatively high numbers of offspring. Our results thus highlight an important and little-studied eco-evolutionary trade-off: density-dependent compensation has generally favorable ecological consequences (promoting stability and long-term viability) but incurs an evolutionary cost (reducing N(e) because a few individuals make a disproportionate genetic contribution). (4) For chinook salmon, N(eH) (an

  10. Simulation of mosquitoes population dynamic based on rainfall and average daily temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widayani, H.; Seprianus, Nuraini, N.; Arum, J.

    2014-02-01

    This paper proposed rainfall and average daily temperature approximation functions using least square method with trigonometry polynomial. Error value from this method is better than Fast Fourier Transform method. This approximation is used to accommodate climatic factors into deterministic model of mosquitoes population by constructing a carrying capacity function which contains rainfall and average daily temperature functions. We develop a mathematical model for mosquitoes population dynamic which formulated by Yang et al (2010) with dynamic parameter of a daily rainfall as well as temperature on that model. Two fixed points, trivial and non-trivial, are obtained when constant entomological parameters assumed. Basic offspring number, Q0 as mosquitoes reproduction parameter is constructed. Non-trivial fixed point is stable if and only if Q0 > 1. Numerical simulation shown the dynamics of mosquitoes population significantly affected by rainfall and average daily temperature function.

  11. Enhancement of Chlorophyll Concentration and Growing Harmful Algal Bloom Along the California Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aceves, Joselyn; Singh, Ramesh

    2016-07-01

    We have carried out detailed analysis of satellite and ground data at different locations, Cal Poly, Goleta, Newport, Santa Monica, and Scripps piers and Monterey, Stearns and Santa Cruz wharfs along the California coast for the period 2008-2015. The sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentrations derived from satellite data are analyzed together with ground observations of nitrogen, phosphorus, domoic acids and harmful algal blooms. The frequency of harmful algal blooms are found to increase in recent years depending upon the enhancement of chlorophyll concentrations and the discharges along the coast and dynamics of the sea surface temperature. The frequency of harmful algal blooms is higher in the northern California compared to southern California. The anthropogenic activities along the coast have increased which are associated with the forest fires and long range transport of dusts from Asia. The aerosol optical depth derived from satellite data during summer months seems to play an important role in the frequency of harmful algal blooms.

  12. Dynamics and recovery of a sediment-exposed Chironomus riparius population: A modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Diepens, Noël J; Beltman, Wim H J; Koelmans, Albert A; Van den Brink, Paul J; Baveco, Johannes M

    2016-06-01

    Models can be used to assess long-term risks of sediment-bound contaminants at the population level. However, these models usually lack the coupling between chemical fate in the sediment, toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic processes in individuals and propagation of individual-level effects to the population. We developed a population model that includes all these processes, and used it to assess the importance of chemical uptake routes on a Chironomus riparius population after pulsed exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos. We show that particle ingestion is an important additional exposure pathway affecting C. riparius population dynamics and recovery. Models ignoring particle ingestion underestimate the impact and the required recovery times, which implies that they underestimate risks of sediment-bound chemicals. Additional scenario studies showed the importance of selecting the biologically relevant sediment layer and showed population effects in the long term. PMID:27031571

  13. Complex Population Dynamics in Mussels Arising from Density-Linked Stochasticity

    PubMed Central

    Wootton, J. Timothy; Forester, James D.

    2013-01-01

    Population fluctuations are generally attributed to the deterministic consequences of strong non-linear interactions among organisms, or the effects of random stochastic environmental variation superimposed upon the deterministic skeleton describing population change. Analysis of the population dynamics of the mussel Mytilus californianus taken in 16 plots over 18-years found no evidence that these processes explained observed strong fluctuations. Instead, population fluctuations arose because environmental stochasticity varied with abundance, which we term density-linked stochasticity. This phenomenon arises from biologically relevant mechanisms: recruitment variation and transmission of disturbance among neighboring individuals. Density-linked stochasticity is probably present frequently in populations, as it arises naturally from several general ecological processes, including stage structure variation with density, ontogenetic niche shifts, and local transmission of stochastic perturbations. More thoroughly characterizing and interpreting deviations from the mean behavior of a system will lead to better ecological prediction and improved insight into the important processes affecting populations and ecosystems. PMID:24086617

  14. Predation, Competition, and Abiotic Disturbance: Population Dynamics of Small Mammals

    SciTech Connect

    Yunger, John A.; /Northern Illinois U. /Northern Illinois U.

    1996-01-01

    Predation and food availability have been implicated in annual non-cyclic fluctuations of vertebrate prey at mid-latitudes. The timing and magnitude of these factors are unclear due to a lack of large-scale field experiments, little attention to interactions, and a failure to closely link vertebrate predators with their prey. From October 1992 to January 1996, small mammal populations were censused on eight 0.6 ha plots at monthly intervals in a 32-ha prairie restoration at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Illinois. Terrestrial vertebrate predators were excluded after July 1993 from four of the eight plots and canid diets monitored. Both terrestrial and avian vertebrate predators were excluded in March 1994. During 1993 small mammal densities (i.e., Microtus Pennsylvanicus, Peromyscus leucopus, and P. maniculatus) were relatively high. Following peak densities in late summer, Microtus numbers wer 2-3x greater on exclusion plots relative to controls due to preferential selection of Microtus by canids, as reflected in dits. Following an ice-storm and crash in small mammal numbers (particularly Microtus), vertebrate predator exclusion had no detectable effect on P. leucopus numbers, probably due to an abundance of alternative prey (i.e., Sylvilagus floridanus). Meadow vole numbers began to increase in Fall 1995, and a numerical effect of predator exclusion, similar to that in 1993, was observed. Predator exclusion had no detectable effect on the movements and spatial patterns of Microtus during 1993. There was a significant decrease in home range and a significant increase in home range overlap for P. leucopus on the predator exclusion plots. The change in spatial behavior may be due to interspecific competition with Microtus resulting from increased densities on exclusion plots. Thus, predators had an indirect effect on P. leucopus spatial patterns mediated through M. Pennsylvanicus. The role of food limitation was studied using natural and manipulative

  15. Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

  16. Algal communities attached to free-drifting, Antarctic icebergs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robison, Bruce H.; Vernet, Maria; Smith, Kenneth L., Jr.

    2011-06-01

    Disintegration of the Antarctic Peninsula's eastern ice shelves has increased the population of icebergs traversing the Weddell Sea, but until recently little was known about their ecological impact on the pelagic environment. Here we describe a class of algal communities that occur on the submerged flanks of large, free-drifting, glacially-derived tabular icebergs. We used remotely operated vehicles to examine these icebergs directly for the first time, to survey the algal communities and collect material for shipboard laboratory studies. The communities, principally diatoms, were associated with a characteristic cupped configuration of the ice surface, and they served as feeding sites for aggregations of Antarctic krill. Production rate measurements indicate that these communities are providing a substantial contribution to regional primary production in summer. As the number of icebergs grows, the number of algae communities may also be increasing, along with their cumulative contribution to organic carbon flux.

  17. Demographic variability and density-dependent dynamics of a free-ranging rhesus macaque population

    PubMed Central

    Hernández-Pacheco, Raisa; Rawlins, Richard G.; Kessler, Matthew J.; Williams, Lawrence E.; Ruiz-Maldonado, Tagrid M.; González-Martínez, Janis; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V.; Sabat, Alberto M.

    2014-01-01

    Density-dependence is hypothesized as the major mechanism of population regulation. However, the lack of long-term demographic data has hampered the use of density-dependent models in nonhuman primates. In this study, we make use of the long-term demographic data from Cayo Santiago’s rhesus macaques to parameterize and analyze both a density-independent and a density-dependent population matrix model, and compare their projections with the observed population changes. We also employ a retrospective analysis to determine how variance in vital rates, and covariance among them, contributed to the observed variation in long-term fitness across different levels of population density. The population exhibited negative density-dependence in fertility and the model incorporating this relationship accounted for 98% of the observed population dynamics. Variation in survival and fertility of sexually active individuals contributed the most to the variation in long-term fitness, while vital rates displaying high temporal variability exhibited lower sensitivities. Our findings are novel in describing density-dependent dynamics in a provisioned primate population, and in suggesting that selection is acting to lower the variance in the population growth rate by minimizing the variation in adult survival at high density. Because density-dependent mechanisms may become stronger in wild primate populations due to increasing habitat loss and food scarcity, our study demonstrates it is important to incorporate variation in population size, as well as demographic variability into population viability analyses for a better understanding of the mechanisms regulating the growth of primate populations. PMID:23847126

  18. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

    PubMed

    Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

    2008-10-23

    Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.