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Sample records for allocation theory predicts

  1. Sex allocation theory reveals a hidden cost of neonicotinoid exposure in a parasitoid wasp

    PubMed Central

    Whitehorn, Penelope R.; Cook, Nicola; Blackburn, Charlotte V.; Gill, Sophie M.; Green, Jade; Shuker, David M.

    2015-01-01

    Sex allocation theory has proved to be one the most successful theories in evolutionary ecology. However, its role in more applied aspects of ecology has been limited. Here we show how sex allocation theory helps uncover an otherwise hidden cost of neonicotinoid exposure in the parasitoid wasp Nasonia vitripennis. Female N. vitripennis allocate the sex of their offspring in line with Local Mate Competition (LMC) theory. Neonicotinoids are an economically important class of insecticides, but their deployment remains controversial, with evidence linking them to the decline of beneficial species. We demonstrate for the first time to our knowledge, that neonicotinoids disrupt the crucial reproductive behaviour of facultative sex allocation at sub-lethal, field-relevant doses in N. vitripennis. The quantitative predictions we can make from LMC theory show that females exposed to neonicotinoids are less able to allocate sex optimally and that this failure imposes a significant fitness cost. Our work highlights that understanding the ecological consequences of neonicotinoid deployment requires not just measures of mortality or even fecundity reduction among non-target species, but also measures that capture broader fitness costs, in this case offspring sex allocation. Our work also highlights new avenues for exploring how females obtain information when allocating sex under LMC. PMID:25925105

  2. Experimental tests of sex allocation theory with two species of simultaneously hermaphroditic acorn barnacles.

    PubMed

    Hoch, Jeffrey Matthew; Levinton, Jeffrey S

    2012-05-01

    Sex allocation theory for simultaneous hermaphrodites predicts increases in relative allocation to male-specific function as competition for fertilizations increases. Theoretical models developed specifically for competing acorn barnacles predict that the proportional allocation to male function increases toward an asymptote of 50% as the number of competitors for fertilizations increases. Experimental manipulations were used to investigate how mate competition affected both relative and absolute allocation to the sex functions for two species of acorn barnacle: Semibalanus balanoides and Balanus glandula. The ratio of male to female allocation did not increase with the number of competitors for either species. However, both species showed increased allocation to male function (estimated as total mass of sex-specific tissues) with increased crowding. Allocation to female function seemed to be limited by other factors and did not vary with mating group size as predicted. Allocation to male and female function were both positively related to body size, but a trade-off between male and female function, a key assumption of prior models, was not observed.

  3. Dynamic computing resource allocation in online flood monitoring and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, S.; Podhoranyi, M.; Vavrik, R.; Portero, A.

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents tools and methodologies for dynamic allocation of high performance computing resources during operation of the Floreon+ online flood monitoring and prediction system. The resource allocation is done throughout the execution of supported simulations to meet the required service quality levels for system operation. It also ensures flexible reactions to changing weather and flood situations, as it is not economically feasible to operate online flood monitoring systems in the full performance mode during non-flood seasons. Different service quality levels are therefore described for different flooding scenarios, and the runtime manager controls them by allocating only minimal resources currently expected to meet the deadlines. Finally, an experiment covering all presented aspects of computing resource allocation in rainfall-runoff and Monte Carlo uncertainty simulation is performed for the area of the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic.

  4. Predictive Game Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolpert, David H.

    2005-01-01

    Probability theory governs the outcome of a game; there is a distribution over mixed strat.'s, not a single "equilibrium". To predict a single mixed strategy must use our loss function (external to the game's players. Provides a quantification of any strategy's rationality. Prove rationality falls as cost of computation rises (for players who have not previously interacted). All extends to games with varying numbers of players.

  5. Quantitative prediction of genome-wide resource allocation in bacteria.

    PubMed

    Goelzer, Anne; Muntel, Jan; Chubukov, Victor; Jules, Matthieu; Prestel, Eric; Nölker, Rolf; Mariadassou, Mahendra; Aymerich, Stéphane; Hecker, Michael; Noirot, Philippe; Becher, Dörte; Fromion, Vincent

    2015-11-01

    Predicting resource allocation between cell processes is the primary step towards decoding the evolutionary constraints governing bacterial growth under various conditions. Quantitative prediction at genome-scale remains a computational challenge as current methods are limited by the tractability of the problem or by simplifying hypotheses. Here, we show that the constraint-based modeling method Resource Balance Analysis (RBA), calibrated using genome-wide absolute protein quantification data, accurately predicts resource allocation in the model bacterium Bacillus subtilis for a wide range of growth conditions. The regulation of most cellular processes is consistent with the objective of growth rate maximization except for a few suboptimal processes which likely integrate more complex objectives such as coping with stressful conditions and survival. As a proof of principle by using simulations, we illustrated how calibrated RBA could aid rational design of strains for maximizing protein production, offering new opportunities to investigate design principles in prokaryotes and to exploit them for biotechnological applications.

  6. How to make allocation decisions: a theory and test questions.

    PubMed

    2005-01-01

    Hospital administrators are regularly faced with having to cut patient services. Such decisions are essentially questions of distributive justice, and administrators may welcome some guidance. We begin with a key idea from the most influential theory of justice of our times, that of John Rawls, and generate from it a series of test questions against which the ethical dimensions of allocation decisions can be judged.

  7. Plant reproductive allocation predicts herbivore dynamics across spatial and temporal scales.

    PubMed

    Miller, Tom E X; Tyre, Andrew J; Louda, Svata M

    2006-11-01

    Life-history theory suggests that iteroparous plants should be flexible in their allocation of resources toward growth and reproduction. Such plasticity could have consequences for herbivores that prefer or specialize on vegetative versus reproductive structures. To test this prediction, we studied the response of the cactus bug (Narnia pallidicornis) to meristem allocation by tree cholla cactus (Opuntia imbricata). We evaluated the explanatory power of demographic models that incorporated variation in cactus relative reproductive effort (RRE; the proportion of meristems allocated toward reproduction). Field data provided strong support for a single model that defined herbivore fecundity as a time-varying, increasing function of host RRE. High-RRE plants were predicted to support larger insect populations, and this effect was strongest late in the season. Independent field data provided strong support for these qualitative predictions and suggested that plant allocation effects extend across temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, late-season insect abundance was positively associated with interannual changes in cactus RRE over 3 years. Spatial variation in insect abundance was correlated with variation in RRE among five cactus populations across New Mexico. We conclude that plant allocation can be a critical component of resource quality for insect herbivores and, thus, an important mechanism underlying variation in herbivore abundance across time and space.

  8. An Approach for Transmission Loss and Cost Allocation by Loss Allocation Index and Co-operative Game Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Baseem; Agnihotri, Ganga; Mishra, Anuprita S.

    2016-03-01

    In the present work authors proposed a novel method for transmission loss and cost allocation to users (generators and loads). In the developed methodology transmission losses are allocated to users based on their usage of the transmission line. After usage allocation, particular loss allocation indices (PLAI) are evaluated for loads and generators. Also Cooperative game theory approach is applied for comparison of results. The proposed method is simple and easy to implement on the practical power system. Sample 6 bus and IEEE 14 bus system is used for showing the effectiveness of proposed method.

  9. Strategic allocation of attention reduces temporally predictable stimulus conflict

    PubMed Central

    Appelbaum, L. Gregory; Boehler, Carsten N.; Won, Robert; Davis, Lauren; Woldorff, Marty G.

    2013-01-01

    Humans are able to continuously monitor environmental situations and adjust their behavioral strategies to optimize performance. Here we investigate the behavioral and brain adjustments that occur when conflicting stimulus elements are, or are not, temporally predictable. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were collected while manual-response variants of the Stroop task were performed in which the stimulus onset asynchronies (SOAs) between the relevant-color and irrelevant-word stimulus components were either randomly intermixed, or held constant, within each experimental run. Results indicated that the size of both the neural and behavioral effects of stimulus incongruency varied with the temporal arrangement of the stimulus components, such that the random-SOA arrangements produced the greatest incongruency effects at the earliest irrelevant-first SOA (−200 ms) and the constant-SOA arrangements produced the greatest effects with simultaneous presentation. These differences in conflict processing were accompanied by rapid (~150 ms) modulations of the sensory ERPs to the irrelevant distracter components when they occurred consistently first. These effects suggest that individuals are able to strategically allocate attention in time to mitigate the influence of a temporally predictable distracter. As these adjustments are instantiated by the subjects without instruction, they reveal a form of rapid strategic learning for dealing with temporally predictable stimulus incongruency. PMID:22360623

  10. Allocation of Students in Public Schools: Theory and New Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen-Zada, Danny; Gradstein, Mark; Reuven, Ehud

    2013-01-01

    The allocation of educational resources to students of different socio-economic backgrounds has important policy implications since it affects individual educational outcomes as well as the future distribution of human capital. In this paper, we present a theoretical model showing that local school administrators have an incentive to allocate…

  11. A Resource-Allocation Theory of Classroom Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonald, Frederick J.

    A fresh approach to classroom management, which responds both to the present body of knowledge in this area and extends to beginning teachers a practical, flexible, and simple method of maintaining classroom control, is presented. Shortcomings of previous management theories (in particular, the Direct Instruction Model) are discussed, and the need…

  12. Mental workload prediction based on attentional resource allocation and information processing.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Xu; Wanyan, Xiaoru; Zhuang, Damin

    2015-01-01

    Mental workload is an important component in complex human-machine systems. The limited applicability of empirical workload measures produces the need for workload modeling and prediction methods. In the present study, a mental workload prediction model is built on the basis of attentional resource allocation and information processing to ensure pilots' accuracy and speed in understanding large amounts of flight information on the cockpit display interface. Validation with an empirical study of an abnormal attitude recovery task showed that this model's prediction of mental workload highly correlated with experimental results. This mental workload prediction model provides a new tool for optimizing human factors interface design and reducing human errors. PMID:26406085

  13. Sexual systems and dwarf males in barnacles: integrating life history and sex allocation theories.

    PubMed

    Yamaguchi, Sachi; Yusa, Yoichi; Sawada, Kota; Takahashi, Satoshi

    2013-03-01

    Barnacles, which are sedentary marine crustaceans, have diverse sexual systems that include simultaneous hermaphroditism, androdioecy (coexistence of hermaphrodites and males) and dioecy (females and males). In dioecious and androdioecious species, the males are very small and are thus called dwarf males. These sexual systems are defined by two factors: sex allocation of non-dwarf individuals and the presence or absence of dwarf males. We constructed an ESS model treating sex allocation and life history simultaneously to explain sexual systems in barnacles. We analyzed the evolutionarily stable size-dependent resource allocation strategy to male reproductive function, female reproductive function and growth in non-dwarf barnacles, and the ESS proportion of dwarf males, under conditions of varying mortality and food availability. Sex allocation in non-dwarf individuals (hermaphrodites or females) is affected by mate availability and the proportion of dwarf males. When hermaphrodites appear, all hermaphrodites become protandric simultaneous hermaphrodites. Furthermore, high mortality and poor resource availability favor dwarf males because of their early maturation and weakened sperm competition. In conclusion, we showed that combining sex allocation and life history theories is a useful way to understand various sexual systems in barnacles and perhaps in other organisms as well.

  14. A collateral effect of reward predicted by matching theory.

    PubMed

    Mace, F C; McCurdy, B; Quigley, E A

    1990-01-01

    Matching theory describes a process by which organisms distribute their behavior between two or more concurrent schedules of reinforcement (Herrnstein, 1961). In an attempt to determine the generality of matching theory to applied settings, 2 students receiving special education were provided with academic response alternatives. Using a combined simultaneous treatments design and reversal design, unequal ratio schedules of reinforcement were varied across two academic responses. Findings indicated that both subjects allocated higher rates of responses to the richer schedule of reinforcement, although only one responded exclusively to the richer schedule. The present results lend support to a postulation that positive reinforcement may have undesirable collateral effects that are predicted by matching theory (Balsam & Bondy, 1983).

  15. A collateral effect of reward predicted by matching theory.

    PubMed Central

    Mace, F C; McCurdy, B; Quigley, E A

    1990-01-01

    Matching theory describes a process by which organisms distribute their behavior between two or more concurrent schedules of reinforcement (Herrnstein, 1961). In an attempt to determine the generality of matching theory to applied settings, 2 students receiving special education were provided with academic response alternatives. Using a combined simultaneous treatments design and reversal design, unequal ratio schedules of reinforcement were varied across two academic responses. Findings indicated that both subjects allocated higher rates of responses to the richer schedule of reinforcement, although only one responded exclusively to the richer schedule. The present results lend support to a postulation that positive reinforcement may have undesirable collateral effects that are predicted by matching theory (Balsam & Bondy, 1983). PMID:2373655

  16. Adaptive Scheduling for QoS Virtual Machines under Different Resource Allocation - Performance Effects and Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sodan, Angela C.

    Virtual machines have become an important approach to provide performance isolation and performance guarantees (QoS) on cluster servers and on many-core SMP servers. Many-core CPUs are a current trend in CPU design and require jobs to be parallel for exploitation of the performance potential. Very promising for batch job scheduling with virtual machines on both cluster servers and many-core SMP servers is adaptive scheduling which can adjust sizes of parallel jobs to consider different load situations and different resource availability. Then, the resource allocation and resource partitioning can be determined at virtual-machine level and be propagated down to the job sizes. The paper investigates job re-sizing and virtual-machine resizing, and the effects which the efficiency curve of the jobs has on the resulting performance. Additionally, the paper presents a simple, yet effective queuing-model approach for predicting performance under different resource allocation.

  17. Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1988-01-01

    The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

  18. Expected Utility Theory as a Guide to Contingency (Allowance or Management Reserve) Allocation

    SciTech Connect

    Thibadeau, Barbara M

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, I view a project from the perspective of utility theory. I suggest that, by determining an optimal percent contingency (relative to remaining work) and identifying and enforcing a required change in behavior, from one that is risk-seeking to one that is risk-averse, a project's contingency can be managed more effectively. I argue that early on in a project, risk-seeking behavior dominates. During this period, requests for contingency are less rigorously scrutinized. As the design evolves, more accurate information becomes available. Once the designs have been finalized, the project team must transition from a free-thinking, exploratory mode to an execution mode. If projects do not transition fast enough from a risk-seeking to a risk-averse organization, an inappropriate allocation of project contingency could occur (too much too early in the project). I show that the behavioral patterns used to characterize utility theory are those that exist in the project environment. I define a project's utility and thus, provide project managers with a metric against which all gambles (requests for contingency) can be evaluated. I discuss other research as it relates to utility and project management. From empirical data analysis, I demonstrate that there is a direct correlation between progress on a project's design activities and the rate at which project contingency is allocated and recommend a transition time frame during which the rate of allocation should decrease and the project should transition from risk-seeking to risk-averse. I show that these data are already available from a project's earned value management system and thus, inclusion of this information in the standard monthly reporting suite can enhance a project manager's decision making capability.

  19. Comparing theories' performance in predicting violence.

    PubMed

    Haas, Henriette; Cusson, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    The stakes of choosing the best theory as a basis for violence prevention and offender rehabilitation are high. However, no single theory of violence has ever been universally accepted by a majority of established researchers. Psychiatry, psychology and sociology are each subdivided into different schools relying upon different premises. All theories can produce empirical evidence for their validity, some of them stating the opposite of each other. Calculating different models with multivariate logistic regression on a dataset of N = 21,312 observations and ninety-two influences allowed a direct comparison of the performance of operationalizations of some of the most important schools. The psychopathology model ranked as the best model in terms of predicting violence right after the comprehensive interdisciplinary model. Next came the rational choice and lifestyle model and third the differential association and learning theory model. Other models namely the control theory model, the childhood-trauma model and the social conflict and reaction model turned out to have low sensitivities for predicting violence. Nevertheless, all models produced acceptable results in predictions of a non-violent outcome.

  20. Comparing theories' performance in predicting violence.

    PubMed

    Haas, Henriette; Cusson, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    The stakes of choosing the best theory as a basis for violence prevention and offender rehabilitation are high. However, no single theory of violence has ever been universally accepted by a majority of established researchers. Psychiatry, psychology and sociology are each subdivided into different schools relying upon different premises. All theories can produce empirical evidence for their validity, some of them stating the opposite of each other. Calculating different models with multivariate logistic regression on a dataset of N = 21,312 observations and ninety-two influences allowed a direct comparison of the performance of operationalizations of some of the most important schools. The psychopathology model ranked as the best model in terms of predicting violence right after the comprehensive interdisciplinary model. Next came the rational choice and lifestyle model and third the differential association and learning theory model. Other models namely the control theory model, the childhood-trauma model and the social conflict and reaction model turned out to have low sensitivities for predicting violence. Nevertheless, all models produced acceptable results in predictions of a non-violent outcome. PMID:25637261

  1. Understanding Hypotheses, Predictions, Laws, and Theories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eastwell, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This paper discusses the relationships between the terms "hypothesis," "prediction," "theory," and "law." In so doing, it addresses some misconceptions found in the literature and suggests that the only interpretation of the term "hypothesis" needed is that of a causal hypothesis. A more valid…

  2. Model Predictive Obstacle Avoidance and Wheel Allocation Control of Mobile Robots Using Embedded CPU

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Naoki; Nonaka, Kenichiro

    In this study, we propose a real-time model predictive control method for leg/wheel mobile robots which simultaneously achieves both obstacle avoidance and wheel allocation at a flexible position. The proposed method generates both obstacle avoidance path and dynamical wheel positions, and controls the heading angle depending on the slope of the predicted path so that the robot can keep a good balance between stability and mobility in narrow and complex spaces like indoor environments. Moreover, we reduce the computational effort of the algorithm by deleting usage of mathematical function in the repetitive numerical computation. Thus the proposed real-time optimization method can be applied to low speed on-board CPUs used in commercially-produced vehicles. We conducted experiments to verify efficacy and feasibility of the real-time implementation of the proposed method. We used a leg/wheel mobile robot which is equipped with two laser range finders to detect obstacles and an embedded CPU whose clock speed is only 80MHz. Experiments indicate that the proposed method achieves improved obstacle avoidance comparing with the previous method in the sense that it generates an avoidance path with balanced allocation of right and left side wheels.

  3. Proactive Spatiotemporal Resource Allocation and Predictive Visual Analytics for Community Policing and Law Enforcement.

    PubMed

    Malik, Abish; Maciejewski, Ross; Towers, Sherry; McCullough, Sean; Ebert, David S

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we present a visual analytics approach that provides decision makers with a proactive and predictive environment in order to assist them in making effective resource allocation and deployment decisions. The challenges involved with such predictive analytics processes include end-users' understanding, and the application of the underlying statistical algorithms at the right spatiotemporal granularity levels so that good prediction estimates can be established. In our approach, we provide analysts with a suite of natural scale templates and methods that enable them to focus and drill down to appropriate geospatial and temporal resolution levels. Our forecasting technique is based on the Seasonal Trend decomposition based on Loess (STL) method, which we apply in a spatiotemporal visual analytics context to provide analysts with predicted levels of future activity. We also present a novel kernel density estimation technique we have developed, in which the prediction process is influenced by the spatial correlation of recent incidents at nearby locations. We demonstrate our techniques by applying our methodology to Criminal, Traffic and Civil (CTC) incident datasets.

  4. Proactive Spatiotemporal Resource Allocation and Predictive Visual Analytics for Community Policing and Law Enforcement.

    PubMed

    Malik, Abish; Maciejewski, Ross; Towers, Sherry; McCullough, Sean; Ebert, David S

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we present a visual analytics approach that provides decision makers with a proactive and predictive environment in order to assist them in making effective resource allocation and deployment decisions. The challenges involved with such predictive analytics processes include end-users' understanding, and the application of the underlying statistical algorithms at the right spatiotemporal granularity levels so that good prediction estimates can be established. In our approach, we provide analysts with a suite of natural scale templates and methods that enable them to focus and drill down to appropriate geospatial and temporal resolution levels. Our forecasting technique is based on the Seasonal Trend decomposition based on Loess (STL) method, which we apply in a spatiotemporal visual analytics context to provide analysts with predicted levels of future activity. We also present a novel kernel density estimation technique we have developed, in which the prediction process is influenced by the spatial correlation of recent incidents at nearby locations. We demonstrate our techniques by applying our methodology to Criminal, Traffic and Civil (CTC) incident datasets. PMID:26356900

  5. Women, men and public health-how the choice of normative theory affects resource allocation.

    PubMed

    Månsdotter, Anna; Lindholm, Lars; Ohman, Ann

    2004-09-01

    Women live longer than men in almost all countries, but men are more privileged in terms of power, influence, resources and probably morbidity. This investigation aims at illustrating how the choice of normative framework affects judgements about the fairness in these sex differences, and about desired societal change. The selected theories are welfare economics, health sector extra-welfarism, justice as fairness and feminist justice. By means of five Swedish proposals aiming at improving the population's health or "sex equity", facts and values are applied to resource allocation. Although we do not claim a specific ethical foundation, it seems to us that the feminist criterion has great potential in public health policy. The overall conclusion is that the normative framework must be explicitly discussed and stated in issues of women's and men's health.

  6. Women, men and public health-how the choice of normative theory affects resource allocation.

    PubMed

    Månsdotter, Anna; Lindholm, Lars; Ohman, Ann

    2004-09-01

    Women live longer than men in almost all countries, but men are more privileged in terms of power, influence, resources and probably morbidity. This investigation aims at illustrating how the choice of normative framework affects judgements about the fairness in these sex differences, and about desired societal change. The selected theories are welfare economics, health sector extra-welfarism, justice as fairness and feminist justice. By means of five Swedish proposals aiming at improving the population's health or "sex equity", facts and values are applied to resource allocation. Although we do not claim a specific ethical foundation, it seems to us that the feminist criterion has great potential in public health policy. The overall conclusion is that the normative framework must be explicitly discussed and stated in issues of women's and men's health. PMID:15276314

  7. Metabolic theory predicts whole-ecosystem properties

    PubMed Central

    Schramski, John R.; Dell, Anthony I.; Grady, John M.; Sibly, Richard M.; Brown, James H.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the effects of individual organisms on material cycles and energy fluxes within ecosystems is central to predicting the impacts of human-caused changes on climate, land use, and biodiversity. Here we present a theory that integrates metabolic (organism-based bottom-up) and systems (ecosystem-based top-down) approaches to characterize how the metabolism of individuals affects the flows and stores of materials and energy in ecosystems. The theory predicts how the average residence time of carbon molecules, total system throughflow (TST), and amount of recycling vary with the body size and temperature of the organisms and with trophic organization. We evaluate the theory by comparing theoretical predictions with outputs of numerical models designed to simulate diverse ecosystem types and with empirical data for real ecosystems. Although residence times within different ecosystems vary by orders of magnitude—from weeks in warm pelagic oceans with minute phytoplankton producers to centuries in cold forests with large tree producers—as predicted, all ecosystems fall along a single line: residence time increases linearly with slope = 1.0 with the ratio of whole-ecosystem biomass to primary productivity (B/P). TST was affected predominantly by primary productivity and recycling by the transfer of energy from microbial decomposers to animal consumers. The theory provides a robust basis for estimating the flux and storage of energy, carbon, and other materials in terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems and for quantifying the roles of different kinds of organisms and environments at scales from local ecosystems to the biosphere. PMID:25624499

  8. Ko Displacement Theory for Structural Shape Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.

    2010-01-01

    The development of the Ko displacement theory for predictions of structure deformed shapes was motivated in 2003 by the Helios flying wing, which had a 247-ft (75-m) wing span with wingtip deflections reaching 40 ft (12 m). The Helios flying wing failed in midair in June 2003, creating the need to develop new technology to predict in-flight deformed shapes of unmanned aircraft wings for visual display before the ground-based pilots. Any types of strain sensors installed on a structure can only sense the surface strains, but are incapable to sense the overall deformed shapes of structures. After the invention of the Ko displacement theory, predictions of structure deformed shapes could be achieved by feeding the measured surface strains into the Ko displacement transfer functions for the calculations of out-of-plane deflections and cross sectional rotations at multiple locations for mapping out overall deformed shapes of the structures. The new Ko displacement theory combined with a strain-sensing system thus created a revolutionary new structure- shape-sensing technology.

  9. Streamflow Prediction based on Chaos Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X.; Wang, X.; Babovic, V. M.

    2015-12-01

    Chaos theory is a popular method in hydrologic time series prediction. Local model (LM) based on this theory utilizes time-delay embedding to reconstruct the phase-space diagram. For this method, its efficacy is dependent on the embedding parameters, i.e. embedding dimension, time lag, and nearest neighbor number. The optimal estimation of these parameters is thus critical to the application of Local model. However, these embedding parameters are conventionally estimated using Average Mutual Information (AMI) and False Nearest Neighbors (FNN) separately. This may leads to local optimization and thus has limitation to its prediction accuracy. Considering about these limitation, this paper applies a local model combined with simulated annealing (SA) to find the global optimization of embedding parameters. It is also compared with another global optimization approach of Genetic Algorithm (GA). These proposed hybrid methods are applied in daily and monthly streamflow time series for examination. The results show that global optimization can contribute to the local model to provide more accurate prediction results compared with local optimization. The LM combined with SA shows more advantages in terms of its computational efficiency. The proposed scheme here can also be applied to other fields such as prediction of hydro-climatic time series, error correction, etc.

  10. Finite and Gauge-Yukawa unified theories: Theory and predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Kobayashi, T.; Kubo, J.; Mondragon, M.; Zoupanos, G.

    1999-10-25

    All-loop Finite Unified Theories (FUTs) are very interesting N=1 GUTs in which a complete reduction of couplings has been achieved. FUTs realize an old field theoretical dream and have remarkable predictive power. Reduction of dimensionless couplings in N=1 GUTs is achieved by searching for renormalization group invariant (RGI) relations among them holding beyond the unification scale. Finiteness results from the fact that there exists RGI relations among dimensionless couplings that guarantee the vanishing of the {beta}- functions in certain N=1 supersymmetric GUTS even to all orders. Recent developments in the soft supersymmetry breaking (SSB) sector of N=1 GUTs and FUTs lead to exact RGI relations also in this sector of the theories. Of particular interest is a RGI sum rule for the soft scalar masses holding to all orders. The characteristic features of SU(5) models that have been constructed based on the above tools are: a) the old agreement of the top quark prediction with the measured value remains unchanged, b) the lightest Higgs boson is predicted to be around 120 GeV, c) the s-spectrum starts above several hundreds of GeV.

  11. 'A Theory of the Allocation of Time' Turns Fifty: Its Impact on the Field of Health Economics.

    PubMed

    Grossman, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The year 2015 is the 50th anniversary of the publication of 'A Theory of the Allocation of Time,' by Gary S. Becker in the 1965 volume of The Economic Journal. To mark that occasion, this editorial focuses on the importance of that paper in the history and evolution of the field of health economics. PMID:26767721

  12. 'A Theory of the Allocation of Time' Turns Fifty: Its Impact on the Field of Health Economics.

    PubMed

    Grossman, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The year 2015 is the 50th anniversary of the publication of 'A Theory of the Allocation of Time,' by Gary S. Becker in the 1965 volume of The Economic Journal. To mark that occasion, this editorial focuses on the importance of that paper in the history and evolution of the field of health economics.

  13. Asymptotic theory of time-varying social networks with heterogeneous activity and tie allocation

    PubMed Central

    Ubaldi, Enrico; Perra, Nicola; Karsai, Márton; Vezzani, Alessandro; Burioni, Raffaella; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    The dynamic of social networks is driven by the interplay between diverse mechanisms that still challenge our theoretical and modelling efforts. Amongst them, two are known to play a central role in shaping the networks evolution, namely the heterogeneous propensity of individuals to i) be socially active and ii) establish a new social relationships with their alters. Here, we empirically characterise these two mechanisms in seven real networks describing temporal human interactions in three different settings: scientific collaborations, Twitter mentions, and mobile phone calls. We find that the individuals’ social activity and their strategy in choosing ties where to allocate their social interactions can be quantitatively described and encoded in a simple stochastic network modelling framework. The Master Equation of the model can be solved in the asymptotic limit. The analytical solutions provide an explicit description of both the system dynamic and the dynamical scaling laws characterising crucial aspects about the evolution of the networks. The analytical predictions match with accuracy the empirical observations, thus validating the theoretical approach. Our results provide a rigorous dynamical system framework that can be extended to include other processes shaping social dynamics and to generate data driven predictions for the asymptotic behaviour of social networks. PMID:27774998

  14. Implicit theories about willpower predict self-regulation and grades in everyday life.

    PubMed

    Job, Veronika; Walton, Gregory M; Bernecker, Katharina; Dweck, Carol S

    2015-04-01

    Laboratory research shows that when people believe that willpower is an abundant (rather than highly limited) resource they exhibit better self-control after demanding tasks. However, some have questioned whether this "nonlimited" theory leads to squandering of resources and worse outcomes in everyday life when demands on self-regulation are high. To examine this, we conducted a longitudinal study, assessing students' theories about willpower and tracking their self-regulation and academic performance. As hypothesized, a nonlimited theory predicted better self-regulation (better time management and less procrastination, unhealthy eating, and impulsive spending) for students who faced high self-regulatory demands. Moreover, among students taking a heavy course load, those with a nonlimited theory earned higher grades, which was mediated by less procrastination. These findings contradict the idea that a limited theory helps people allocate their resources more effectively; instead, it is people with the nonlimited theory who self-regulate well in the face of high demands.

  15. Does Biot's theory have predictive power?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beresnev, Igor A.

    2016-08-01

    Biot's theory of elastic waves in fluid-saturated porous solids has two free parameters: the tortuosity α, characterizing the dynamic coupling between the solid and the fluid, and the structural factor δ, representing the geometric properties of the porous space. The meaning and significance of these parameters have not been sufficiently understood. The tortuosity has the physical meaning of the normalized mean square of the velocity of the pore fluid relative to the solid wall; it has a low-frequency but no high-frequency limits. The analytical calculation of the tortuosity for Biot's slit-like pore provides its range of variability from approximately 1-100 in the frequency range of practical interest. The tortuosity has a significant effect on the properties of the Biot waves of the second kind in the high-frequency range. On the other hand, in realistically complex pore geometries, the values of the tortuosity are virtually unpredictable. This limits the usefulness of the Biot theory in predicting the wave propagation at high frequencies. At all frequencies, the effect of the structural factor is insignificant relative to the effect of the tortuosity. The conventional compressional wave (the wave of the first kind) is insensitive to both parameters at all frequencies. The frequencies of interest to seismic exploration are also free of the uncertainty imposed by the lack of constraints on the tortuosity as the only free parameter in Biot's theory.

  16. Does Biot's Theory Have Predictive Power?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beresnev, I. A.

    2013-12-01

    Biot's theory of elastic waves in fluid-saturated porous solids has two free parameters: the tortuosity α, characterizing the dynamic coupling between the solid and the fluid, and the structural factor δ, representing the geometric properties of the porous space. The meaning and significance of these parameters have not been sufficiently understood. Tortuosity has the physical meaning of the normalized mean square of the velocity of the pore fluid relative to the solid wall; it has no low- and high-frequency limits. The analytical calculation of the tortuosity for Biot's slit-like pore provides its range of variability from approximately 1 to 100 in the frequency range of practical interest. The tortuosity has a significant effect on the properties of the Biot waves of the second kind in the high-frequency range. On the other hand, in realistically complex pore geometries, the values of the tortuosity are virtually unpredictable. This limits the usefulness of the Biot theory in predicting the wave propagation at high frequencies. At all frequencies, the effect of the structural factor is insignificant relative to the effect of the tortuosity. The conventional compressional wave (the wave of the first kind) is insensitive to both parameters at all frequencies. The frequencies of interest to seismic exploration are also free of the uncertainty imposed by the lack of constraints on the tortuosity as the only free parameter in Biot's theory.

  17. Prediction in ungauged estuaries: An integrated theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savenije, Hubert H. G.

    2015-04-01

    Many estuaries in the world are ungauged. The International Association of Hydrological Sciences completed its science decade on Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) in 2012 (Hrachowitz et al.). Prediction on the basis of limited data is a challenge in hydrology, but not less so in estuaries, where data on fundamental processes are often lacking. In this paper, relatively simple, but science-based, methods are presented that allow researchers, engineers, and water managers to obtain first-order estimates of essential process parameters in estuaries, such as the estuary depth, the tidal amplitude, the tidal excursion, the phase lag, and the salt water intrusion, on the basis of readily obtainable information, such as topographical maps and tidal tables. These apparently simple relationships are assumed to result from the capacity of freely erodible water bodies to adjust themselves to external drivers and to dissipate the free energy from these drivers as efficiently as possible. Thus, it is assumed that these systems operate close to their thermodynamic limit, resulting in predictable patterns that can be described by relatively simple equations. Although still much has to be done to develop an overall physics-based theory, this does not prevent us from making use of the empirical "laws" that we observe in alluvial estuaries.

  18. Application of portfolio theory to risk-based allocation of surveillance resources in animal populations.

    PubMed

    Prattley, D J; Morris, R S; Stevenson, M A; Thornton, R

    2007-09-14

    Distribution of finite levels of resources between multiple competing tasks can be a challenging problem. Resources need to be distributed across time periods and geographic locations to increase the probability of detection of a disease incursion or significant change in disease pattern. Efforts should focus primarily on areas and populations where risk factors for a given disease reach relatively high levels. In order to target resources into these areas, the overall risk level can be evaluated periodically across locations to create a dynamic national risk landscape. Methods are described to integrate the levels of various risk factors into an overall risk score for each area, to account for the certainty or variability around those measures and then to allocate surveillance resources across this risk landscape. In addition to targeting resources into high risk areas, surveillance continues in lower risk areas where there is a small yet positive chance of disease occurrence. In this paper we describe the application of portfolio theory concepts, routinely used in finance, to design surveillance portfolios for a series of examples. The appropriate level of resource investment is chosen for each disease or geographical area and time period given the degree of disease risk and uncertainty present. PMID:17509705

  19. Application of portfolio theory to risk-based allocation of surveillance resources in animal populations.

    PubMed

    Prattley, D J; Morris, R S; Stevenson, M A; Thornton, R

    2007-09-14

    Distribution of finite levels of resources between multiple competing tasks can be a challenging problem. Resources need to be distributed across time periods and geographic locations to increase the probability of detection of a disease incursion or significant change in disease pattern. Efforts should focus primarily on areas and populations where risk factors for a given disease reach relatively high levels. In order to target resources into these areas, the overall risk level can be evaluated periodically across locations to create a dynamic national risk landscape. Methods are described to integrate the levels of various risk factors into an overall risk score for each area, to account for the certainty or variability around those measures and then to allocate surveillance resources across this risk landscape. In addition to targeting resources into high risk areas, surveillance continues in lower risk areas where there is a small yet positive chance of disease occurrence. In this paper we describe the application of portfolio theory concepts, routinely used in finance, to design surveillance portfolios for a series of examples. The appropriate level of resource investment is chosen for each disease or geographical area and time period given the degree of disease risk and uncertainty present.

  20. From Hydroclimatic Prediction to Negotiated and Risk Managed Water Allocation and Reservoir Operation (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lall, U.

    2013-12-01

    The availability of long lead climate forecasts that can in turn inform streamflow, agricultural, ecological and municipal/industrial and energy demands provides an opportunity for innovations in water resources management that go beyond the current practices and paradigms. In a practical setting, managers seek to meet registered demands as well as they can. Pricing mechanisms to manage demand are rarely invoked. Drought restrictions and operations are implemented as needed, and pressures from special interest groups are sometimes accommodated through a variety of processes. In the academic literature, there is a notion that demand curves for different sectors could be established and used for "optimal management". However, the few attempts to implement such ideas have invariably failed as elicitation of demand elasticity and socio-political factors is imperfect at best. In this talk, I will focus on what is worth predicting and for whom and how operational risks for the water system can be securitized while providing a platform for priced and negotiated allocation of the resources in the presence of imperfect forecasts. The possibility of a national or regional market for water contracts as part of the framework is explored, and its potential benefits and pitfalls identified.

  1. Sex-related differences in growth and carbon allocation to defence in Populus tremula as explained by current plant defence theories.

    PubMed

    Randriamanana, Tendry R; Nybakken, Line; Lavola, Anu; Aphalo, Pedro J; Nissinen, Katri; Julkunen-Tiitto, Riitta

    2014-05-01

    Plant defence theories have recently evolved in such a way that not only the quantity but also the quality of mineral nutrients is expected to influence plant constitutive defence. Recently, an extended prediction derived from the protein competition model (PCM) suggested that nitrogen (N) limitation is more important for the production of phenolic compounds than phosphorus (P). We aimed at studying sexual differences in the patterns of carbon allocation to growth and constitutive defence in relation to N and P availability in Populus tremula L. seedlings. We compared the gender responses in photosynthesis, growth and whole-plant allocation to phenolic compounds at different combination levels of N and P, and studied how they are explained by the main plant defence theories. We found no sexual differences in phenolic concentrations, but interestingly, slow-growing females had higher leaf N concentration than did males, and genders differed in their allocation priority. There was a trade-off between growth and the production of flavonoid-derived phenylpropanoids on one hand, and between the production of salicylates and flavonoid-derived phenylpropanoids on the other. Under limited nutrient conditions, females prioritized mineral nutrient acquisition, flavonoid and condensed tannin (CT) production, while males invested more in above-ground biomass. Salicylate accumulation followed the growth differentiation balance hypothesis as low N mainly decreased the production of leaf and stem salicylate content while the combination of both low N and low P increased the amount of flavonoids and CTs allocated to leaves and to a lesser extent stems, which agrees with the PCM. We suggest that such a discrepancy in the responses of salicylates and flavonoid-derived CTs is linked to their clearly distinct biosynthetic origins and/or their metabolic costs.

  2. Adaptive sex allocation in birds: the complexities of linking theory and practice.

    PubMed Central

    Komdeur, Jan; Pen, Ido

    2002-01-01

    We review some recent theoretical and empirical developments in the study of sex allocation in birds. The advent of reliable molecular sexing techniques has led to a sharp increase in the number of studies that report biased offspring sex ratios in birds. However, compelling evidence for adaptive sex allocation in birds is still very scant. We argue that there are two reasons for this: (i) standard sex allocation models, very helpful in understanding sex allocation of invertebrates, do not sufficiently take the complexities of bird life histories and physiology into account. Recent theoretical work might bring us a step closer to more realistic models; (ii) experimental field and laboratory studies on sex allocation in birds are scarce. Recent experimental work both in the laboratory and in the field shows that this is a promising approach. PMID:11958705

  3. Critical evidence for the prediction error theory in associative learning.

    PubMed

    Terao, Kanta; Matsumoto, Yukihisa; Mizunami, Makoto

    2015-01-01

    In associative learning in mammals, it is widely accepted that the discrepancy, or error, between actual and predicted reward determines whether learning occurs. Complete evidence for the prediction error theory, however, has not been obtained in any learning systems: Prediction error theory stems from the finding of a blocking phenomenon, but blocking can also be accounted for by other theories, such as the attentional theory. We demonstrated blocking in classical conditioning in crickets and obtained evidence to reject the attentional theory. To obtain further evidence supporting the prediction error theory and rejecting alternative theories, we constructed a neural model to match the prediction error theory, by modifying our previous model of learning in crickets, and we tested a prediction from the model: the model predicts that pharmacological intervention of octopaminergic transmission during appetitive conditioning impairs learning but not formation of reward prediction itself, and it thus predicts no learning in subsequent training. We observed such an "auto-blocking", which could be accounted for by the prediction error theory but not by other competitive theories to account for blocking. This study unambiguously demonstrates validity of the prediction error theory in associative learning. PMID:25754125

  4. Critical evidence for the prediction error theory in associative learning

    PubMed Central

    Terao, Kanta; Matsumoto, Yukihisa; Mizunami, Makoto

    2015-01-01

    In associative learning in mammals, it is widely accepted that the discrepancy, or error, between actual and predicted reward determines whether learning occurs. Complete evidence for the prediction error theory, however, has not been obtained in any learning systems: Prediction error theory stems from the finding of a blocking phenomenon, but blocking can also be accounted for by other theories, such as the attentional theory. We demonstrated blocking in classical conditioning in crickets and obtained evidence to reject the attentional theory. To obtain further evidence supporting the prediction error theory and rejecting alternative theories, we constructed a neural model to match the prediction error theory, by modifying our previous model of learning in crickets, and we tested a prediction from the model: the model predicts that pharmacological intervention of octopaminergic transmission during appetitive conditioning impairs learning but not formation of reward prediction itself, and it thus predicts no learning in subsequent training. We observed such an “auto-blocking”, which could be accounted for by the prediction error theory but not by other competitive theories to account for blocking. This study unambiguously demonstrates validity of the prediction error theory in associative learning. PMID:25754125

  5. Critical evidence for the prediction error theory in associative learning.

    PubMed

    Terao, Kanta; Matsumoto, Yukihisa; Mizunami, Makoto

    2015-03-10

    In associative learning in mammals, it is widely accepted that the discrepancy, or error, between actual and predicted reward determines whether learning occurs. Complete evidence for the prediction error theory, however, has not been obtained in any learning systems: Prediction error theory stems from the finding of a blocking phenomenon, but blocking can also be accounted for by other theories, such as the attentional theory. We demonstrated blocking in classical conditioning in crickets and obtained evidence to reject the attentional theory. To obtain further evidence supporting the prediction error theory and rejecting alternative theories, we constructed a neural model to match the prediction error theory, by modifying our previous model of learning in crickets, and we tested a prediction from the model: the model predicts that pharmacological intervention of octopaminergic transmission during appetitive conditioning impairs learning but not formation of reward prediction itself, and it thus predicts no learning in subsequent training. We observed such an "auto-blocking", which could be accounted for by the prediction error theory but not by other competitive theories to account for blocking. This study unambiguously demonstrates validity of the prediction error theory in associative learning.

  6. Toward a predictive theory for environmental enrichment.

    PubMed

    Watters, Jason V

    2009-11-01

    There have been many applications of and successes with environmental enrichment for captive animals. The theoretical spine upon which much enrichment work hangs largely describes why enrichment should work. Yet, there remains no clear understanding of how enrichment should be applied to achieve the most beneficial results. This lack of understanding may stem in part from the assumptions that underlie the application of enrichment by practitioners. These assumptions are derived from an understanding that giving animals choice and control in their environment stimulates their motivation to perform behaviors that may indicate a heightened state of well-being. Learning theory provides a means to question the manner in which these constructs are routinely applied, and converting learning theory's findings to optimality predictions suggests a particularly vexing paradox-that motivation to perform appears to be maintained best when acquiring a payoff for expressing the behavior is uncertain. This effect occurs even when the actual value of the payoff is the same for all schedules of certainty of payoff acquisition. The paradox can be resolved by invoking rewards of an alternative type, such as cognitive rewards, or through an understanding of how the average payoff changes with changes in the probability of reward. This model, with measures of the average change of the payoff, suggests testable scenarios by which practitioners can measure the quality of environmental uncertainty in enrichment programs. PMID:19830747

  7. Toward a predictive theory for environmental enrichment.

    PubMed

    Watters, Jason V

    2009-11-01

    There have been many applications of and successes with environmental enrichment for captive animals. The theoretical spine upon which much enrichment work hangs largely describes why enrichment should work. Yet, there remains no clear understanding of how enrichment should be applied to achieve the most beneficial results. This lack of understanding may stem in part from the assumptions that underlie the application of enrichment by practitioners. These assumptions are derived from an understanding that giving animals choice and control in their environment stimulates their motivation to perform behaviors that may indicate a heightened state of well-being. Learning theory provides a means to question the manner in which these constructs are routinely applied, and converting learning theory's findings to optimality predictions suggests a particularly vexing paradox-that motivation to perform appears to be maintained best when acquiring a payoff for expressing the behavior is uncertain. This effect occurs even when the actual value of the payoff is the same for all schedules of certainty of payoff acquisition. The paradox can be resolved by invoking rewards of an alternative type, such as cognitive rewards, or through an understanding of how the average payoff changes with changes in the probability of reward. This model, with measures of the average change of the payoff, suggests testable scenarios by which practitioners can measure the quality of environmental uncertainty in enrichment programs.

  8. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2013-01-01

    A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg- Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application.

  9. [A simulation model for predicting the dry matter allocation in cut lily plants under effects of substrate water potential].

    PubMed

    Dong, Yong-Yi; Li, Gang; An, Dong-Sheng; Luo, Wei-Hong

    2012-04-01

    Dry matter allocation and translocation is the base of the formation of appearance quality of ornamental plants, and strongly affected by water supply. Taking cut lily cultivar 'Sorbonne' as test material, a culture experiment of different planting dates and water supply levels was conducted in a multi-span greenhouse in Nanjing from March 2009 to January 2010 to quantitatively analyze the seasonal changes of the dry matter allocation and translocation in 'Sorbonne' plants and the effects of substrate water potential on the dry matter allocation indices for different organs (flower, stem, leaf, bulb, and root), aimed to define the critical substrate water potential for the normal growth of the cultivar, and establish a simulation model for predicting the dry matter allocation in cut lily plants under effects of substrate water potential. The model established in this study gave a good prediction on the dry mass of plant organs, with the coefficient of determination and the relative root mean square error between the simulated and measured values of the cultivar' s flower dry mass, stem dry mass, leaf dry mass, bulb dry mass, and root dry mass being 0.96 and 19.2%, 0.95 and 12.4%, 0.86 and 19.4%, 0.95 and 12.2%, and 0.85 and 31.7%, respectively. The critical water potential for the water management of cut lily could be -15 kPa.

  10. From Theory to Practice: Implementation of a Resource Allocation Model in Health Departments

    PubMed Central

    Yaylali, Emine; Farnham, Paul G.; Schneider, Karen L.; Landers, Stewart J.; Kouzouian, Oskian; Lasry, Arielle; Purcell, David W.; Green, Timothy A.; Sansom, Stephanie L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To develop a resource allocation model to optimize health departments’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)–funded HIV prevention budgets to prevent the most new cases of HIV infection and to evaluate the model’s implementation in 4 health departments. Design, Settings, and Participants We developed a linear programming model combined with a Bernoulli process model that allocated a fixed budget among HIV prevention interventions and risk subpopulations to maximize the number of new infections prevented. The model, which required epidemiologic, behavioral, budgetary, and programmatic data, was implemented in health departments in Philadelphia, Chicago, Alabama, and Nebraska. Main Outcome Measures The optimal allocation of funds, the site-specific cost per case of HIV infection prevented rankings by intervention, and the expected number of HIV cases prevented. Results The model suggested allocating funds to HIV testing and continuum-of-care interventions in all 4 health departments. The most cost-effective intervention for all sites was HIV testing in nonclinical settings for men who have sex with men, and the least cost-effective interventions were behavioral interventions for HIV-negative persons. The pilot sites required 3 to 4 months of technical assistance to develop data inputs and generate and interpret the results. Although the sites found the model easy to use in providing quantitative evidence for allocating HIV prevention resources, they criticized the exclusion of structural interventions and the use of the model to allocate only CDC funds. Conclusions Resource allocation models have the potential to improve the allocation of limited HIV prevention resources and can be used as a decision-making guide for state and local health departments. Using such models may require substantial staff time and technical assistance. These model results emphasize the allocation of CDC funds toward testing and continuum-of-care interventions and

  11. Efficient Nash Equilibrium Resource Allocation Based on Game Theory Mechanism in Cloud Computing by Using Auction

    PubMed Central

    Nezarat, Amin; Dastghaibifard, GH

    2015-01-01

    One of the most complex issues in the cloud computing environment is the problem of resource allocation so that, on one hand, the cloud provider expects the most profitability and, on the other hand, users also expect to have the best resources at their disposal considering the budget constraints and time. In most previous work conducted, heuristic and evolutionary approaches have been used to solve this problem. Nevertheless, since the nature of this environment is based on economic methods, using such methods can decrease response time and reducing the complexity of the problem. In this paper, an auction-based method is proposed which determines the auction winner by applying game theory mechanism and holding a repetitive game with incomplete information in a non-cooperative environment. In this method, users calculate suitable price bid with their objective function during several round and repetitions and send it to the auctioneer; and the auctioneer chooses the winning player based the suggested utility function. In the proposed method, the end point of the game is the Nash equilibrium point where players are no longer inclined to alter their bid for that resource and the final bid also satisfies the auctioneer’s utility function. To prove the response space convexity, the Lagrange method is used and the proposed model is simulated in the cloudsim and the results are compared with previous work. At the end, it is concluded that this method converges to a response in a shorter time, provides the lowest service level agreement violations and the most utility to the provider. PMID:26431035

  12. Efficient Nash Equilibrium Resource Allocation Based on Game Theory Mechanism in Cloud Computing by Using Auction.

    PubMed

    Nezarat, Amin; Dastghaibifard, G H

    2015-01-01

    One of the most complex issues in the cloud computing environment is the problem of resource allocation so that, on one hand, the cloud provider expects the most profitability and, on the other hand, users also expect to have the best resources at their disposal considering the budget constraints and time. In most previous work conducted, heuristic and evolutionary approaches have been used to solve this problem. Nevertheless, since the nature of this environment is based on economic methods, using such methods can decrease response time and reducing the complexity of the problem. In this paper, an auction-based method is proposed which determines the auction winner by applying game theory mechanism and holding a repetitive game with incomplete information in a non-cooperative environment. In this method, users calculate suitable price bid with their objective function during several round and repetitions and send it to the auctioneer; and the auctioneer chooses the winning player based the suggested utility function. In the proposed method, the end point of the game is the Nash equilibrium point where players are no longer inclined to alter their bid for that resource and the final bid also satisfies the auctioneer's utility function. To prove the response space convexity, the Lagrange method is used and the proposed model is simulated in the cloudsim and the results are compared with previous work. At the end, it is concluded that this method converges to a response in a shorter time, provides the lowest service level agreement violations and the most utility to the provider.

  13. Role of price and enforcement in water allocation: Insights from Game Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souza Filho, Francisco Assis; Lall, Upmanu; Porto, Rubem La Laina

    2008-12-01

    As many countries are moving toward water sector reforms, practical issues of how water management institutions can better effect allocation, regulation, and enforcement of water rights have emerged. The problem of nonavailability of water to tailenders on an irrigation system in developing countries, due to unlicensed upstream diversions is well documented. The reliability of access or equivalently the uncertainty associated with water availability at their diversion point becomes a parameter that is likely to influence the application by users for water licenses, as well as their willingness to pay for licensed use. The ability of a water agency to reduce this uncertainty through effective water rights enforcement is related to the fiscal ability of the agency to monitor and enforce licensed use. In this paper, this interplay across the users and the agency is explored, considering the hydraulic structure or sequence of water use and parameters that define the users and the agency's economics. The potential for free rider behavior by the users, as well as their proposals for licensed use are derived conditional on this setting. The analyses presented are developed in the framework of the theory of "Law and Economics," with user interactions modeled as a game theoretic enterprise. The state of Ceara, Brazil, is used loosely as an example setting, with parameter values for the experiments indexed to be approximately those relevant for current decisions. The potential for using the ideas in participatory decision making is discussed. This paper is an initial attempt to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing such situations but with a focus on the reservoir-canal system water rights enforcement.

  14. Prediction of Federal Aid Allocations to Local School Districts in Connecticut.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gustafson, Richard A.

    The purpose of the research was to determine which community characteristics, among the 29 studied, were statistically most useful as predictors of per-pupil Federal aid to the 169 school districts of Connecticut. Three regression models were developed using community traits as predictors of Federal aid allocations. Community characteristics…

  15. Updating the Premotor Theory: The Allocation of Attention Is Not Always Accompanied by Saccade Preparation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belopolsky, Artem V.; Theeuwes, Jan

    2012-01-01

    There is an ongoing controversy regarding the relationship between covert attention and saccadic eye movements. While there is quite some evidence that the preparation of a saccade is obligatory preceded by a shift of covert attention, the reverse is not clear: Is allocation of attention always accompanied by saccade preparation? Recently, a…

  16. Ethical models in bioethics: theory and application in organ allocation policies.

    PubMed

    Petrini, C

    2010-12-01

    Policies for allocating organs to people awaiting a transplant constitute a major ethical challenge. First and foremost, they demand balance between the principles of beneficence and justice, but many other ethically relevant principles are also involved: autonomy, responsibility, equity, efficiency, utility, therapeutic outcome, medical urgency, and so forth. Various organ allocation models can be developed based on the hierarchical importance assigned to a given principle over the others, but none of the principles should be completely disregarded. An ethically acceptable organ allocation policy must therefore be in conformity, to a certain extent, with the requirements of all the principles. Many models for organ allocation can be derived. The utilitarian model aims to maximize benefits, which can be of various types on a social or individual level, such as the number of lives saved, prognosis, and so forth. The prioritarian model favours the neediest or those who suffer most. The egalitarian model privileges equity and justice, suggesting that all people should have an equal opportunity (casual allocation) or priority should be given to those who have been waiting longer. The personalist model focuses on each individual patient, attempting to mesh together all the various aspects affecting the person: therapeutic needs (urgency), fairness, clinical outcomes, respect for persons. In the individualistic model the main element is free choice and the system of opting-in is privileged. Contrary to the individualistic model, the communitarian model identities in the community the fundamental elements for the legitimacy of choices: therefore, the system of opting-out is privileged. This article does not aim at suggesting practical solutions. Rather, it furnishes to decision makers an overview on the possible ethical approach to this matter.

  17. Ethical models in bioethics: theory and application in organ allocation policies.

    PubMed

    Petrini, C

    2010-12-01

    Policies for allocating organs to people awaiting a transplant constitute a major ethical challenge. First and foremost, they demand balance between the principles of beneficence and justice, but many other ethically relevant principles are also involved: autonomy, responsibility, equity, efficiency, utility, therapeutic outcome, medical urgency, and so forth. Various organ allocation models can be developed based on the hierarchical importance assigned to a given principle over the others, but none of the principles should be completely disregarded. An ethically acceptable organ allocation policy must therefore be in conformity, to a certain extent, with the requirements of all the principles. Many models for organ allocation can be derived. The utilitarian model aims to maximize benefits, which can be of various types on a social or individual level, such as the number of lives saved, prognosis, and so forth. The prioritarian model favours the neediest or those who suffer most. The egalitarian model privileges equity and justice, suggesting that all people should have an equal opportunity (casual allocation) or priority should be given to those who have been waiting longer. The personalist model focuses on each individual patient, attempting to mesh together all the various aspects affecting the person: therapeutic needs (urgency), fairness, clinical outcomes, respect for persons. In the individualistic model the main element is free choice and the system of opting-in is privileged. Contrary to the individualistic model, the communitarian model identities in the community the fundamental elements for the legitimacy of choices: therefore, the system of opting-out is privileged. This article does not aim at suggesting practical solutions. Rather, it furnishes to decision makers an overview on the possible ethical approach to this matter. PMID:21196904

  18. Cultural Differences in Equity Theory Predictions of Relational Maintenance Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yum, Young-ok; Canary, Daniel J.

    2009-01-01

    This study examined whether the theoretic role of equity in predicting relational maintenance strategies is modified by participant country and culture. Research on equity theory in relationships has been conducted primarily in the United States and Western Europe. We argue that equity theory predictions regarding relational communication probably…

  19. General Theory versus ENA Theory: Comparing Their Predictive Accuracy and Scope.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Lee; Hoskin, Anthony; Hartley, Richard; Walsh, Anthony; Widmayer, Alan; Ratnasingam, Malini

    2015-12-01

    General theory attributes criminal behavior primarily to low self-control, whereas evolutionary neuroandrogenic (ENA) theory envisions criminality as being a crude form of status-striving promoted by high brain exposure to androgens. General theory predicts that self-control will be negatively correlated with risk-taking, while ENA theory implies that these two variables should actually be positively correlated. According to ENA theory, traits such as pain tolerance and muscularity will be positively associated with risk-taking and criminality while general theory makes no predictions concerning these relationships. Data from Malaysia and the United States are used to test 10 hypotheses derived from one or both of these theories. As predicted by both theories, risk-taking was positively correlated with criminality in both countries. However, contrary to general theory and consistent with ENA theory, the correlation between self-control and risk-taking was positive in both countries. General theory's prediction of an inverse correlation between low self-control and criminality was largely supported by the U.S. data but only weakly supported by the Malaysian data. ENA theory's predictions of positive correlations between pain tolerance, muscularity, and offending were largely confirmed. For the 10 hypotheses tested, ENA theory surpassed general theory in predictive scope and accuracy.

  20. Adding prediction risk to the theory of reward learning.

    PubMed

    Preuschoff, Kerstin; Bossaerts, Peter

    2007-05-01

    This article analyzes the simple Rescorla-Wagner learning rule from the vantage point of least squares learning theory. In particular, it suggests how measures of risk, such as prediction risk, can be used to adjust the learning constant in reinforcement learning. It argues that prediction risk is most effectively incorporated by scaling the prediction errors. This way, the learning rate needs adjusting only when the covariance between optimal predictions and past (scaled) prediction errors changes. Evidence is discussed that suggests that the dopaminergic system in the (human and nonhuman) primate brain encodes prediction risk, and that prediction errors are indeed scaled with prediction risk (adaptive encoding).

  1. Predicting inter-season price jumps in the market for temporary water allocations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plummer, Jonathan; Schreider, Sergei

    2015-06-01

    The market for temporary water allocations in the Northern Victoria Regulated river system has matured to the point where new instruments to manage risk can be of benefit to water users. One of these instruments could be a series of option contracts issued by the Water Authority. However a serious impediment to the introduction of options is the variation in prices across seasons. Prices jump between the end of one season and the beginning of the next mean that appropriate option strike prices cannot be determined until a period of trading in the new season allows price discovery to take place. This prevents an options market being available at the beginning of the season when it is most useful to irrigators. In this paper we look at winter rainfall for the town of Jamieson, upstream of Lake Eildon and the volume of water in Lake Eildon as predictors of the price of temporary water allocations at the beginning of the irrigation season. We develop a climate driven regression model which allows us to link the inter-seasonal jumps with the biophysical parameters of the system. By better understanding the factors dictating the size of the price jumps between seasons options can be developed that are not restricted to the current season. We also consider the implications of the infrastructure upgrades currently underway and recent policy changes on the market for temporary water allocations. The carryover policy which allows water to be kept for use in subsequent seasons, and the reserve policy, which is designed to allow the delivery of initial allocations and water carried over at the start of the irrigation season each year, are two recent policy innovations. These policies should smooth prices and reduce the jump in prices that have been seen between irrigation seasons.

  2. Prediction in Sport: Theories and Applications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Disch, James G.; Morrow, James R., Jr.

    The use of various physiological tests and measurements accurately predicts the performance ratings of female athletes. A study involving 180 female intercollegiate volleyball players, 142 female intercollegiate basketball players, and 115 female college-age nonathletes yielded a set of statistical differentials concerning arm length, lean weight…

  3. Optimal control model predictions of system performance and attention allocation and their experimental validation in a display design study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johannsen, G.; Govindaraj, T.

    1980-01-01

    The influence of different types of predictor displays in a longitudinal vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) hover task is analyzed in a theoretical study. Several cases with differing amounts of predictive and rate information are compared. The optimal control model of the human operator is used to estimate human and system performance in terms of root-mean-square (rms) values and to compute optimized attention allocation. The only part of the model which is varied to predict these data is the observation matrix. Typical cases are selected for a subsequent experimental validation. The rms values as well as eye-movement data are recorded. The results agree favorably with those of the theoretical study in terms of relative differences. Better matching is achieved by revised model input data.

  4. The Prediction of Item Parameters Based on Classical Test Theory and Latent Trait Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anil, Duygu

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the prediction power of the item characteristics based on the experts' predictions on conditions try-out practices cannot be applied was examined for item characteristics computed depending on classical test theory and two-parameters logistic model of latent trait theory. The study was carried out on 9914 randomly selected students…

  5. Infant Attention to Intentional Action Predicts Preschool Theory of Mind

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wellman, Henry M.; Lopez-Duran, Sarah; LaBounty, Jennifer; Hamilton, Betsy

    2008-01-01

    This research examines whether there are continuities between infant social attention and later theory of mind. Forty-five children were studied as infants and then again as 4-year-olds. Measures of infant social attention (decrement of attention during habituation to displays of intentional action) significantly predicted later theory of mind…

  6. Against matching theory: predictions of an evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics.

    PubMed

    McDowell, J J; Calvin, Nicholas T

    2015-05-01

    A selectionist theory of adaptive behavior dynamics instantiates the idea that behavior evolves in response to selection pressure from the environment in the form of resource acquisition or threat escape or avoidance. The theory is implemented by a computer program that creates an artificial organism and animates it with a population of potential behaviors. The population undergoes selection, recombination, and mutation across generations, or ticks of time, which produces a continuous stream of behavior that can be studied as if it were the behavior of a live organism. Novel predictions of the evolutionary theory can be compared to predictions of matching theory in a critical experiment that arranges concurrent schedules with reinforcer magnitudes that vary across conditions in one component of the schedules but not the other. Matching theory and the evolutionary theory make conflicting predictions about the outcome of this critical experiment, such that the results must disconfirm at least one of the theories.

  7. Against matching theory: predictions of an evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics.

    PubMed

    McDowell, J J; Calvin, Nicholas T

    2015-05-01

    A selectionist theory of adaptive behavior dynamics instantiates the idea that behavior evolves in response to selection pressure from the environment in the form of resource acquisition or threat escape or avoidance. The theory is implemented by a computer program that creates an artificial organism and animates it with a population of potential behaviors. The population undergoes selection, recombination, and mutation across generations, or ticks of time, which produces a continuous stream of behavior that can be studied as if it were the behavior of a live organism. Novel predictions of the evolutionary theory can be compared to predictions of matching theory in a critical experiment that arranges concurrent schedules with reinforcer magnitudes that vary across conditions in one component of the schedules but not the other. Matching theory and the evolutionary theory make conflicting predictions about the outcome of this critical experiment, such that the results must disconfirm at least one of the theories. PMID:25680328

  8. Entity versus incremental theories predict older adults' memory performance.

    PubMed

    Plaks, Jason E; Chasteen, Alison L

    2013-12-01

    The authors examined whether older adults' implicit theories regarding the modifiability of memory in particular (Studies 1 and 3) and abilities in general (Study 2) would predict memory performance. In Study 1, individual differences in older adults' endorsement of the "entity theory" (a belief that one's ability is fixed) or "incremental theory" (a belief that one's ability is malleable) of memory were measured using a version of the Implicit Theories Measure (Dweck, 1999). Memory performance was assessed with a free-recall task. Results indicated that the higher the endorsement of the incremental theory, the better the free recall. In Study 2, older and younger adults' theories were measured using a more general version of the Implicit Theories Measure that focused on the modifiability of abilities in general. Again, for older adults, the higher the incremental endorsement, the better the free recall. Moreover, as predicted, implicit theories did not predict younger adults' memory performance. In Study 3, participants read mock news articles reporting evidence in favor of either the entity or incremental theory. Those in the incremental condition outperformed those in the entity condition on reading span and free-recall tasks. These effects were mediated by pretask worry such that, for those in the entity condition, higher worry was associated with lower performance. Taken together, these studies suggest that variation in entity versus incremental endorsement represents a key predictor of older adults' memory performance. PMID:24128076

  9. Entity versus incremental theories predict older adults' memory performance.

    PubMed

    Plaks, Jason E; Chasteen, Alison L

    2013-12-01

    The authors examined whether older adults' implicit theories regarding the modifiability of memory in particular (Studies 1 and 3) and abilities in general (Study 2) would predict memory performance. In Study 1, individual differences in older adults' endorsement of the "entity theory" (a belief that one's ability is fixed) or "incremental theory" (a belief that one's ability is malleable) of memory were measured using a version of the Implicit Theories Measure (Dweck, 1999). Memory performance was assessed with a free-recall task. Results indicated that the higher the endorsement of the incremental theory, the better the free recall. In Study 2, older and younger adults' theories were measured using a more general version of the Implicit Theories Measure that focused on the modifiability of abilities in general. Again, for older adults, the higher the incremental endorsement, the better the free recall. Moreover, as predicted, implicit theories did not predict younger adults' memory performance. In Study 3, participants read mock news articles reporting evidence in favor of either the entity or incremental theory. Those in the incremental condition outperformed those in the entity condition on reading span and free-recall tasks. These effects were mediated by pretask worry such that, for those in the entity condition, higher worry was associated with lower performance. Taken together, these studies suggest that variation in entity versus incremental endorsement represents a key predictor of older adults' memory performance.

  10. Goal Setting and Expectancy Theory Predictions of Effort and Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dossett, Dennis L.; Luce, Helen E.

    Neither expectancy (VIE) theory nor goal setting alone are effective determinants of individual effort and task performance. To test the combined ability of VIE and goal setting to predict effort and performance, 44 real estate agents and their managers completed questionnaires. Quarterly income goals predicted managers' ratings of agents' effort,…

  11. Implicit theories about willpower predict self-regulation and grades in everyday life.

    PubMed

    Job, Veronika; Walton, Gregory M; Bernecker, Katharina; Dweck, Carol S

    2015-04-01

    Laboratory research shows that when people believe that willpower is an abundant (rather than highly limited) resource they exhibit better self-control after demanding tasks. However, some have questioned whether this "nonlimited" theory leads to squandering of resources and worse outcomes in everyday life when demands on self-regulation are high. To examine this, we conducted a longitudinal study, assessing students' theories about willpower and tracking their self-regulation and academic performance. As hypothesized, a nonlimited theory predicted better self-regulation (better time management and less procrastination, unhealthy eating, and impulsive spending) for students who faced high self-regulatory demands. Moreover, among students taking a heavy course load, those with a nonlimited theory earned higher grades, which was mediated by less procrastination. These findings contradict the idea that a limited theory helps people allocate their resources more effectively; instead, it is people with the nonlimited theory who self-regulate well in the face of high demands. PMID:25844577

  12. No extension of quantum theory can have improved predictive power.

    PubMed

    Colbeck, Roger; Renner, Renato

    2011-01-01

    According to quantum theory, measurements generate random outcomes, in stark contrast with classical mechanics. This raises the question of whether there could exist an extension of the theory that removes this indeterminism, as suspected by Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen. Although this has been shown to be impossible, existing results do not imply that the current theory is maximally informative. Here we ask the more general question of whether any improved predictions can be achieved by any extension of quantum theory. Under the assumption that measurements can be chosen freely, we answer this question in the negative: no extension of quantum theory can give more information about the outcomes of future measurements than quantum theory itself. Our result has significance for the foundations of quantum mechanics, as well as applications to tasks that exploit the inherent randomness in quantum theory, such as quantum cryptography. PMID:21811240

  13. No extension of quantum theory can have improved predictive power.

    PubMed

    Colbeck, Roger; Renner, Renato

    2011-08-02

    According to quantum theory, measurements generate random outcomes, in stark contrast with classical mechanics. This raises the question of whether there could exist an extension of the theory that removes this indeterminism, as suspected by Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen. Although this has been shown to be impossible, existing results do not imply that the current theory is maximally informative. Here we ask the more general question of whether any improved predictions can be achieved by any extension of quantum theory. Under the assumption that measurements can be chosen freely, we answer this question in the negative: no extension of quantum theory can give more information about the outcomes of future measurements than quantum theory itself. Our result has significance for the foundations of quantum mechanics, as well as applications to tasks that exploit the inherent randomness in quantum theory, such as quantum cryptography.

  14. Protein flexibility predictions using graph theory.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, D J; Rader, A J; Kuhn, L A; Thorpe, M F

    2001-08-01

    Techniques from graph theory are applied to analyze the bond networks in proteins and identify the flexible and rigid regions. The bond network consists of distance constraints defined by the covalent and hydrogen bonds and salt bridges in the protein, identified by geometric and energetic criteria. We use an algorithm that counts the degrees of freedom within this constraint network and that identifies all the rigid and flexible substructures in the protein, including overconstrained regions (with more crosslinking bonds than are needed to rigidify the region) and underconstrained or flexible regions, in which dihedral bond rotations can occur. The number of extra constraints or remaining degrees of bond-rotational freedom within a substructure quantifies its relative rigidity/flexibility and provides a flexibility index for each bond in the structure. This novel computational procedure, first used in the analysis of glassy materials, is approximately a million times faster than molecular dynamics simulations and captures the essential conformational flexibility of the protein main and side-chains from analysis of a single, static three-dimensional structure. This approach is demonstrated by comparison with experimental measures of flexibility for three proteins in which hinge and loop motion are essential for biological function: HIV protease, adenylate kinase, and dihydrofolate reductase.

  15. Observant, nonaggressive temperament predicts theory of mind development.

    PubMed

    Wellman, Henry M; Lane, Jonathan D; LaBounty, Jennifer; Olson, Sheryl L

    2011-03-01

    Temperament dimensions influence children's approach to and participation in social interactive experiences which reflect and impact children's social understandings. Therefore, temperament differences might substantially impact theory of mind development in early childhood. Using longitudinal data, we report that certain early temperament characteristics (at age 3)--lack of aggressiveness, a shy-withdrawn stance to social interaction, and social-perceptual sensitivity--predict children's more advanced theory-of-mind understanding two years later. The findings contribute to our understanding of how theory of mind develops in the formative preschool period; they may also inform debates as to the evolutionary origins of theory of mind.

  16. Effects of reinforcer rate and reinforcer quality on time allocation: Extensions of matching theory to educational settings.

    PubMed

    Neef, N A

    1992-01-01

    We examined how 3 special education students allocated their responding across two concurrently available tasks associated with unequal rates and equal versus unequal qualities of reinforcement. The students completed math problems from two alternative sets on concurrent variable-interval (VI) 30-s VI 120-s schedules of reinforcement. During the equal-quality reinforcer condition, high-quality (nickels) and low-quality items ("program money" in the school's token economy) were alternated across sessions as the reinforcer for both sets of problems. During the unequal-quality reinforcer condition, the low-quality reinforcer was used for the set of problems on the VI 30-s schedule, and the high-quality reinforcer was used for the set of problems on the VI 120-s schedule. Equal- and unequal-quality reinforcer conditions were alternated using a reversal design. Results showed that sensitivity to the features of the VI reinforcement schedules developed only after the reinforcement intervals were signaled through countdown timers. Thereafter, when reinforcer quality was equal, the time allocated to concurrent response alternatives was approximately proportional to obtained reinforcement, as predicted by the matching law. However the matching relation was disrupted when, as occurs in most natural choice situations, the quality of the reinforcers differed across the response options.

  17. Phenotypic engineering of sperm-production rate confirms evolutionary predictions of sperm competition theory

    PubMed Central

    Sekii, Kiyono; Vizoso, Dita B.; Kuales, Georg; De Mulder, Katrien; Ladurner, Peter; Schärer, Lukas

    2013-01-01

    Sperm production is a key male reproductive trait and an important parameter in sperm competition theory. Under sperm competition, paternity success is predicted to depend strongly on male allocation to sperm production. Furthermore, because sperm production is inherently costly, individuals should economize in sperm expenditure, and conditional adjustment of the copulation frequency according to their sperm availability may be expected. However, experimental studies showing effects of sperm production on mating behaviour and paternity success have so far been scarce, mainly because sperm production is difficult to manipulate directly in animals. Here, we used phenotypic engineering to manipulate sperm-production rate, by employing dose-dependent RNA interference (RNAi) of a spermatogenesis-specific gene, macbol1, in the free-living flatworm Macrostomum lignano. We demonstrate (i) that our novel dose-dependent RNAi approach allows us to induce high variability in sperm-production rate; (ii) that a reduced sperm-production rate is associated with a decreased copulation frequency, suggesting conditional adjustment of mating behaviour; and (iii) that both sperm production and copulation frequency are important determinants of paternity success in a competitive situation, as predicted by sperm competition theory. Our study clearly documents the potential of phenotypic engineering via dose-dependent RNAi to test quantitative predictions of evolutionary theory. PMID:23446521

  18. A Novel Optimal Joint Resource Allocation Method in Cooperative Multicarrier Networks: Theory and Practice.

    PubMed

    Gao, Yuan; Zhou, Weigui; Ao, Hong; Chu, Jian; Zhou, Quan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Kang; Li, Yi; Xue, Peng

    2016-04-12

    With the increasing demands for better transmission speed and robust quality of service (QoS), the capacity constrained backhaul gradually becomes a bottleneck in cooperative wireless networks, e.g., in the Internet of Things (IoT) scenario in joint processing mode of LTE-Advanced Pro. This paper focuses on resource allocation within capacity constrained backhaul in uplink cooperative wireless networks, where two base stations (BSs) equipped with single antennae serve multiple single-antennae users via multi-carrier transmission mode. In this work, we propose a novel cooperative transmission scheme based on compress-and-forward with user pairing to solve the joint mixed integer programming problem. To maximize the system capacity under the limited backhaul, we formulate the joint optimization problem of user sorting, subcarrier mapping and backhaul resource sharing among different pairs (subcarriers for users). A novel robust and efficient centralized algorithm based on alternating optimization strategy and perfect mapping is proposed. Simulations show that our novel method can improve the system capacity significantly under the constraint of the backhaul resource compared with the blind alternatives.

  19. A Novel Optimal Joint Resource Allocation Method in Cooperative Multicarrier Networks: Theory and Practice.

    PubMed

    Gao, Yuan; Zhou, Weigui; Ao, Hong; Chu, Jian; Zhou, Quan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Kang; Li, Yi; Xue, Peng

    2016-01-01

    With the increasing demands for better transmission speed and robust quality of service (QoS), the capacity constrained backhaul gradually becomes a bottleneck in cooperative wireless networks, e.g., in the Internet of Things (IoT) scenario in joint processing mode of LTE-Advanced Pro. This paper focuses on resource allocation within capacity constrained backhaul in uplink cooperative wireless networks, where two base stations (BSs) equipped with single antennae serve multiple single-antennae users via multi-carrier transmission mode. In this work, we propose a novel cooperative transmission scheme based on compress-and-forward with user pairing to solve the joint mixed integer programming problem. To maximize the system capacity under the limited backhaul, we formulate the joint optimization problem of user sorting, subcarrier mapping and backhaul resource sharing among different pairs (subcarriers for users). A novel robust and efficient centralized algorithm based on alternating optimization strategy and perfect mapping is proposed. Simulations show that our novel method can improve the system capacity significantly under the constraint of the backhaul resource compared with the blind alternatives. PMID:27077865

  20. A Novel Optimal Joint Resource Allocation Method in Cooperative Multicarrier Networks: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Yuan; Zhou, Weigui; Ao, Hong; Chu, Jian; Zhou, Quan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Kang; Li, Yi; Xue, Peng

    2016-01-01

    With the increasing demands for better transmission speed and robust quality of service (QoS), the capacity constrained backhaul gradually becomes a bottleneck in cooperative wireless networks, e.g., in the Internet of Things (IoT) scenario in joint processing mode of LTE-Advanced Pro. This paper focuses on resource allocation within capacity constrained backhaul in uplink cooperative wireless networks, where two base stations (BSs) equipped with single antennae serve multiple single-antennae users via multi-carrier transmission mode. In this work, we propose a novel cooperative transmission scheme based on compress-and-forward with user pairing to solve the joint mixed integer programming problem. To maximize the system capacity under the limited backhaul, we formulate the joint optimization problem of user sorting, subcarrier mapping and backhaul resource sharing among different pairs (subcarriers for users). A novel robust and efficient centralized algorithm based on alternating optimization strategy and perfect mapping is proposed. Simulations show that our novel method can improve the system capacity significantly under the constraint of the backhaul resource compared with the blind alternatives. PMID:27077865

  1. Prediction and Theory Evaluation: The Case of Light Bending

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brush, Stephen G.

    1989-12-01

    Is a theory that makes successful predictions of new facts better than one that does not? Does a fact provide better evidence for a theory if it was not known before being deduced from the theory? These questions can be answered by analyzing historical cases. Einstein's successful prediction of gravitational light bending from his general theory of relativity has been presented as an important example of how ``real'' science works (in contrast to alleged pseudosciences like psychoanalysis). But, while this success gained favorable publicity for the theory, most scientists did not give it any more weight than the deduction of the advance of Mercury's perihelion (a phenomenon known for several decades). The fact that scientists often use the word ``prediction'' to describe the deduction of such previously known facts suggests that novelty may be of little importance in evaluating theories. It may even detract from the evidential value of a fact, until it is clear that competing theories cannot account for the new fact.

  2. The evolution of genomic imprinting: theories, predictions and empirical tests.

    PubMed

    Patten, M M; Ross, L; Curley, J P; Queller, D C; Bonduriansky, R; Wolf, J B

    2014-08-01

    The epigenetic phenomenon of genomic imprinting has motivated the development of numerous theories for its evolutionary origins and genomic distribution. In this review, we examine the three theories that have best withstood theoretical and empirical scrutiny. These are: Haig and colleagues' kinship theory; Day and Bonduriansky's sexual antagonism theory; and Wolf and Hager's maternal-offspring coadaptation theory. These theories have fundamentally different perspectives on the adaptive significance of imprinting. The kinship theory views imprinting as a mechanism to change gene dosage, with imprinting evolving because of the differential effect that gene dosage has on the fitness of matrilineal and patrilineal relatives. The sexual antagonism and maternal-offspring coadaptation theories view genomic imprinting as a mechanism to modify the resemblance of an individual to its two parents, with imprinting evolving to increase the probability of expressing the fitter of the two alleles at a locus. In an effort to stimulate further empirical work on the topic, we carefully detail the logic and assumptions of all three theories, clarify the specific predictions of each and suggest tests to discriminate between these alternative theories for why particular genes are imprinted. PMID:24755983

  3. The evolution of genomic imprinting: theories, predictions and empirical tests

    PubMed Central

    Patten, M M; Ross, L; Curley, J P; Queller, D C; Bonduriansky, R; Wolf, J B

    2014-01-01

    The epigenetic phenomenon of genomic imprinting has motivated the development of numerous theories for its evolutionary origins and genomic distribution. In this review, we examine the three theories that have best withstood theoretical and empirical scrutiny. These are: Haig and colleagues' kinship theory; Day and Bonduriansky's sexual antagonism theory; and Wolf and Hager's maternal–offspring coadaptation theory. These theories have fundamentally different perspectives on the adaptive significance of imprinting. The kinship theory views imprinting as a mechanism to change gene dosage, with imprinting evolving because of the differential effect that gene dosage has on the fitness of matrilineal and patrilineal relatives. The sexual antagonism and maternal–offspring coadaptation theories view genomic imprinting as a mechanism to modify the resemblance of an individual to its two parents, with imprinting evolving to increase the probability of expressing the fitter of the two alleles at a locus. In an effort to stimulate further empirical work on the topic, we carefully detail the logic and assumptions of all three theories, clarify the specific predictions of each and suggest tests to discriminate between these alternative theories for why particular genes are imprinted. PMID:24755983

  4. The evolution of genomic imprinting: theories, predictions and empirical tests.

    PubMed

    Patten, M M; Ross, L; Curley, J P; Queller, D C; Bonduriansky, R; Wolf, J B

    2014-08-01

    The epigenetic phenomenon of genomic imprinting has motivated the development of numerous theories for its evolutionary origins and genomic distribution. In this review, we examine the three theories that have best withstood theoretical and empirical scrutiny. These are: Haig and colleagues' kinship theory; Day and Bonduriansky's sexual antagonism theory; and Wolf and Hager's maternal-offspring coadaptation theory. These theories have fundamentally different perspectives on the adaptive significance of imprinting. The kinship theory views imprinting as a mechanism to change gene dosage, with imprinting evolving because of the differential effect that gene dosage has on the fitness of matrilineal and patrilineal relatives. The sexual antagonism and maternal-offspring coadaptation theories view genomic imprinting as a mechanism to modify the resemblance of an individual to its two parents, with imprinting evolving to increase the probability of expressing the fitter of the two alleles at a locus. In an effort to stimulate further empirical work on the topic, we carefully detail the logic and assumptions of all three theories, clarify the specific predictions of each and suggest tests to discriminate between these alternative theories for why particular genes are imprinted.

  5. Interior noise prediction methodology: ATDAC theory and validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathur, Gopal P.; Gardner, Bryce K.

    1992-01-01

    The Acoustical Theory for Design of Aircraft Cabins (ATDAC) is a computer program developed to predict interior noise levels inside aircraft and to evaluate the effects of different aircraft configurations on the aircraft acoustical environment. The primary motivation for development of this program is the special interior noise problems associated with advanced turboprop (ATP) aircraft where there is a tonal, low frequency noise problem. Prediction of interior noise levels requires knowledge of the energy sources, the transmission paths, and the relationship between the energy variable and the sound pressure level. The energy sources include engine noise, both airborne and structure-borne; turbulent boundary layer noise; and interior noise sources such as air conditioner noise and auxiliary power unit noise. Since propeller and engine noise prediction programs are widely available, they are not included in ATDAC. Airborne engine noise from any prediction or measurement may be input to this program. This report describes the theory and equations implemented in the ATDAC program.

  6. Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Liver Transplantation in the Era of MELD-Based Liver Allocation: A Multivariate Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Schultze, Daniel; Hillebrand, Norbert; Hinz, Ulf; Büchler, Markus W.; Schemmer, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease. While waiting list mortality can be predicted by the MELD-score, reliable scoring systems for the postoperative period do not exist. This study's objective was to identify risk factors that contribute to postoperative mortality. Methods Between December 2006 and March 2011, 429 patients underwent liver transplantation in our department. Risk factors for postoperative mortality in 266 consecutive liver transplantations were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. Patients who were <18 years, HU-listings, and split-, living related, combined or re-transplantations were excluded from the analysis. The correlation between number of risk factors and mortality was analyzed. Results A labMELD ≥20, female sex, coronary heart disease, donor risk index >1.5 and donor Na+>145 mmol/L were identified to be independent predictive factors for postoperative mortality. With increasing number of these risk-factors, postoperative 90-day and 1-year mortality increased (0–1: 0 and 0%; 2: 2.9 and 17.4%; 3: 5.6 and 16.8%; 4: 22.2 and 33.3%; 5–6: 60.9 and 66.2%). Conclusions In this analysis, a simple score was derived that adequately identified patients at risk after liver transplantation. Opening a discussion on the inclusion of these parameters in the process of organ allocation may be a worthwhile venture. PMID:24905210

  7. An evaluation of the seismic- window theory for earthquake prediction.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNutt, M.; Heaton, T.H.

    1981-01-01

    Reports studies designed to determine whether earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area respond to a fortnightly fluctuation in tidal amplitude. It does not appear that the tide is capable of triggering earthquakes, and in particular the seismic window theory fails as a relevant method of earthquake prediction. -J.Clayton

  8. Volunteering for Job Enrichment: A Test of Expectancy Theory Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Giles, William F.

    1977-01-01

    In order to test predictions derived from an expectancy theory model developed by E. E. Lawler, measures of higher-order need satisfaction, locus of control, and intrinsic motivation were obtained from 252 female assembly line workers. Implications of the results for placement of individuals in enriched jobs are discussed. (Editor/RK)

  9. Unifying elemental stoichiometry and metabolic theory in predicting species abundances.

    PubMed

    Ott, David; Digel, Christoph; Rall, Björn C; Maraun, Mark; Scheu, Stefan; Brose, Ulrich

    2014-10-01

    While metabolic theory predicts variance in population density within communities depending on population average body masses, the ecological stoichiometry concept relates density variation across communities to varying resource stoichiometry. Using a data set including biomass densities of 4959 populations of soil invertebrates across 48 forest sites we combined these two frameworks. We analyzed how the scaling of biomass densities with population-averaged body masses systematically interacts with stoichiometric variables. Simplified analyses employing either only body masses or only resource stoichiometry are highly context sensitive and yield variable and often misleading results. Our findings provide strong evidence that analyses of ecological state variables should integrate allometric and stoichiometric variables to explain deviations from predicted allometric scaling and avoid erroneous conclusions. In consequence, our study provides an important step towards unifying two prominent ecological theories, metabolic theory and ecological stoichiometry.

  10. DNA Sequencing and Predictions of the Cosmic Theory of Life

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  11. DNA sequencing and predictions of the cosmic theory of life

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    2013-01-01

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  12. Experimental bound on the maximum predictive power of physical theories.

    PubMed

    Stuart, Terence E; Slater, Joshua A; Colbeck, Roger; Renner, Renato; Tittel, Wolfgang

    2012-07-13

    The question of whether the probabilistic nature of quantum mechanical predictions can be alleviated by supplementing the wave function with additional information has received a lot of attention during the past century. A few specific models have been suggested and subsequently falsified. Here we give a more general answer to this question: We provide experimental data that, as well as falsifying these models, cannot be explained within any alternative theory that could predict the outcomes of measurements on maximally entangled particles with significantly higher probability than quantum theory. Our conclusion is based on the assumptions that all measurement settings have been chosen freely (within a causal structure compatible with relativity theory), and that the presence of the detection loophole did not affect the measurement outcomes.

  13. Attachment theory and theory of planned behavior: an integrative model predicting underage drinking.

    PubMed

    Lac, Andrew; Crano, William D; Berger, Dale E; Alvaro, Eusebio M

    2013-08-01

    Research indicates that peer and maternal bonds play important but sometimes contrasting roles in the outcomes of children. Less is known about attachment bonds to these 2 reference groups in young adults. Using a sample of 351 participants (18 to 20 years of age), the research integrated two theoretical traditions: attachment theory and theory of planned behavior (TPB). The predictive contribution of both theories was examined in the context of underage adult alcohol use. Using full structural equation modeling, results substantiated the hypotheses that secure peer attachment positively predicted norms and behavioral control toward alcohol, but secure maternal attachment inversely predicted attitudes and behavioral control toward alcohol. Alcohol attitudes, norms, and behavioral control each uniquely explained alcohol intentions, which anticipated an increase in alcohol behavior 1 month later. The hypothesized processes were statistically corroborated by tests of indirect and total effects. These findings support recommendations for programs designed to curtail risky levels of underage drinking using the tenets of attachment theory and TPB.

  14. Towards a predictive theory for genetic regulatory networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tkacik, Gasper

    When cells respond to changes in the environment by regulating the expression levels of their genes, we often draw parallels between these biological processes and engineered information processing systems. One can go beyond this qualitative analogy, however, by analyzing information transmission in biochemical ``hardware'' using Shannon's information theory. Here, gene regulation is viewed as a transmission channel operating under restrictive constraints set by the resource costs and intracellular noise. We present a series of results demonstrating that a theory of information transmission in genetic regulatory circuits feasibly yields non-trivial, testable predictions. These predictions concern strategies by which individual gene regulatory elements, e.g., promoters or enhancers, read out their signals; as well as strategies by which small networks of genes, independently or in spatially coupled settings, respond to their inputs. These predictions can be quantitatively compared to the known regulatory networks and their function, and can elucidate how reproducible biological processes, such as embryonic development, can be orchestrated by networks built out of noisy components. Preliminary successes in the gap gene network of the fruit fly Drosophila indicate that a full ab initio theoretical prediction of a regulatory network is possible, a feat that has not yet been achieved for any real regulatory network. We end by describing open challenges on the path towards such a prediction.

  15. Predicting childhood obesity prevention behaviors using social cognitive theory.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Manoj; Wagner, Donald I; Wilkerson, Janice

    Four commonly suggested public health strategies to combat childhood obesity are limiting television viewing, encouraging daily physical activity, increasing fruit and vegetable intake, and increasing water consumption. This study examined the extent to which selected social cognitive theory constructs can predict these four behaviors in upper elementary children. A 52-item valid and reliable scale was administered to 159 fifth graders. Minutes of physical activity was predicted by self-efficacy to exercise and number of times taught at school (R2 = 0.072). Hours of TV watching were predicted by number of times taught about healthy eating at school and self-control through goal setting (R2 = 0.055). Glasses of water consumed were predicted by expectations for drinking water (R2 = 0.091). Servings of fruits and vegetables consumed were predicted by self-efficacy of eating fruits and vegetables (R2 = 0.137). Social cognitive theory offers a practically useful framework for designing primary prevention interventions to reduce childhood obesity.

  16. Geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen in geometrid moths.

    PubMed

    Kivelä, Sami M; Välimäki, Panu; Carrasco, David; Mäenpää, Maarit I; Mänttäri, Satu

    2012-08-01

    A resource allocation trade-off is expected when resources from a common pool are allocated to two or more traits. In holometabolous insects, resource allocation to different functions during metamorphosis relies completely on larval-derived resources. At adult eclosion, resource allocation to the abdomen at the expense of other body parts can be seen as a rough estimate of resource allocation to reproduction. Theory suggests geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen, but there are currently no empirical data on it. We measured resource allocation to the abdomen at adult eclosion in four geometrid moths along a latitudinal gradient. Resource (total dry material, carbon, nitrogen) allocation to the abdomen showed positive allometry with body size. We found geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen in each species, and this variation was independent of allometry in three species. Geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen was complex. Resource allocation to the abdomen was relatively high in partially bivoltine populations in two species, which fits theoretical predictions, but the overall support for theory is weak. This study indicates that the geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen is not an allometric consequence of geographic variation in resource acquisition (i.e., body size). Thus, there is a component of resource allocation that can evolve independently of resource acquisition. Our results also suggest that there may be intraspecific variation in the degree of capital versus income breeding.

  17. Geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen in geometrid moths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kivelä, Sami M.; Välimäki, Panu; Carrasco, David; Mäenpää, Maarit I.; Mänttäri, Satu

    2012-08-01

    A resource allocation trade-off is expected when resources from a common pool are allocated to two or more traits. In holometabolous insects, resource allocation to different functions during metamorphosis relies completely on larval-derived resources. At adult eclosion, resource allocation to the abdomen at the expense of other body parts can be seen as a rough estimate of resource allocation to reproduction. Theory suggests geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen, but there are currently no empirical data on it. We measured resource allocation to the abdomen at adult eclosion in four geometrid moths along a latitudinal gradient. Resource (total dry material, carbon, nitrogen) allocation to the abdomen showed positive allometry with body size. We found geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen in each species, and this variation was independent of allometry in three species. Geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen was complex. Resource allocation to the abdomen was relatively high in partially bivoltine populations in two species, which fits theoretical predictions, but the overall support for theory is weak. This study indicates that the geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen is not an allometric consequence of geographic variation in resource acquisition (i.e., body size). Thus, there is a component of resource allocation that can evolve independently of resource acquisition. Our results also suggest that there may be intraspecific variation in the degree of capital versus income breeding.

  18. Psychodynamic theory and counseling in predictive testing for Huntington's disease.

    PubMed

    Tassicker, Roslyn J

    2005-04-01

    This paper revisits psychodynamic theory, which can be applied in predictive testing counseling for Huntington's Disease (HD). Psychodynamic theory has developed from the work of Freud and places importance on early parent-child experiences. The nature of these relationships, or attachments are reflected in adult expectations and relationships. Two significant concepts, identification and fear of abandonment, have been developed and expounded by the psychodynamic theorist, Melanie Klein. The processes of identification and fear of abandonment can become evident in predictive testing counseling and are colored by the client's experience of growing up with a parent affected by Huntington's Disease. In reflecting on family-of-origin experiences, clients can also express implied expectations of the future, and future relationships. Case examples are given to illustrate the dynamic processes of identification and fear of abandonment which may present in the clinical setting. Counselor recognition of these processes can illuminate and inform counseling practice.

  19. Psychodynamic theory and counseling in predictive testing for Huntington's disease.

    PubMed

    Tassicker, Roslyn J

    2005-04-01

    This paper revisits psychodynamic theory, which can be applied in predictive testing counseling for Huntington's Disease (HD). Psychodynamic theory has developed from the work of Freud and places importance on early parent-child experiences. The nature of these relationships, or attachments are reflected in adult expectations and relationships. Two significant concepts, identification and fear of abandonment, have been developed and expounded by the psychodynamic theorist, Melanie Klein. The processes of identification and fear of abandonment can become evident in predictive testing counseling and are colored by the client's experience of growing up with a parent affected by Huntington's Disease. In reflecting on family-of-origin experiences, clients can also express implied expectations of the future, and future relationships. Case examples are given to illustrate the dynamic processes of identification and fear of abandonment which may present in the clinical setting. Counselor recognition of these processes can illuminate and inform counseling practice. PMID:15959641

  20. A Predictive Theory for the Atmospheric Circulation of Hot Jupiters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komacek, Thaddeus; Showman, Adam

    2016-10-01

    The atmospheres of extremely close in extrasolar giant planets, or "hot Jupiters," are beginning to be analyzed as a population. Synthesizing observations of many different planets provides insight into the nature of the atmospheric circulation of these objects. Notably, the dayside-to-nightside brightness temperature difference of these tidally locked objects has been found to increase with increasing incident stellar flux in all observed infrared wavelength bands. Additionally, there is an eastward infrared phase shift on these planets, which shows tentative evidence of decreasing longitudinal offset from the substellar point with increasing day-to-night temperature differences and hence increased stellar flux. Motivated by these observations, we developed an analytic theory from first principles that predicts dayside-nightside temperature differences and horizontal and vertical wind speeds as a function of incident stellar flux, rotation rate, atmospheric composition, potential frictional drag strength, and pressure level in the atmosphere. We find that our analytic theory captures well the observed trend of increasing dayside-nightside temperature difference with increasing incident stellar flux. When applied to individual planets, the theory matches well the dayside-nightside temperature difference for planets with large incident stellar flux, but under-predicts the dayside-nightside temperature difference for planets with lower incident stellar flux. We interpret this as due to nightside clouds obscuring the nightside infrared radiation, causing an increase in the day-night temperature contrast. Assuming an eastward equatorial jet speed, we can also use this theory to estimate the infrared phase offset. We find that our theory can match all but one of the observed phase offsets with varying drag strength. Lastly, to understand how atmospheric circulation varies with incident stellar flux and drag strength, we perform three-dimensional numerical simulations

  1. Using the theory of reasoned action to predict organizational misbehavior.

    PubMed

    Vardi, Yoav; Weitz, Ely

    2002-12-01

    A review of literature on organizational behavior and management on predicting work behavior indicated that most reported studies emphasize positive work outcomes, e.g., attachment, performance, and satisfaction, while job related misbehaviors have received relatively less systematic research attention. Yet, forms of employee misconduct in organizations are pervasive and quite costly for both individuals and organizations. We selected two conceptual frameworks for the present investigation: Vardi and Wiener's model of organizational misbehavior and Fishbein and Ajzen's Theory of Reasoned Action. The latter views individual behavior as intentional, a function of rationally based attitudes toward the behavior, and internalized normative pressures concerning such behavior. The former model posits that different (normative and instrumental) internal forces lead to the intention to engage in job-related misbehavior. In this paper we report a scenario based quasi-experimental study especially designed to test the utility of the Theory of Reasoned Action in predicting employee intentions to engage in self-benefitting (Type S), organization-benefitting (Type O, or damaging (Type D) organizational misbehavior. Results support the Theory of Reasoned Action in predicting negative workplace behaviors. Both attitude and subjective norm are useful in explaining organizational misbehavior. We discuss some theoretical and methodological implications for the study of misbehavior intentions in organizations.

  2. Predictability of magnetic hysteresis and thermoremanent magnetization using Preisach theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newell, A. J.; Niemerg, M.; Bates, D.

    2014-12-01

    Preisach theory is a phenomenological model of hysteresis that is the basis for FORC analysis in rock magnetism. In FORC analysis, a system is characterized using first-order reversal curves (FORCs), each of which is a magnetization curve after a reversal in the direction of change of the magnetic field. Preisach theory uses the same curves to predict the magnetic response to changes in the magnetic field. In rock magnetism, the Preisach model has been adapted to predict general properties of thermoremanent magnetization (TRM), and even to inferpaleointensity from room-temperature FORCs. Preisach theory represents hysteresis by a collection of hysteresis units called hysterons; the distribution of hysterons is inferred from FORC measurements. Each hysteron represents a two-state system. This is similar to a single-domain (SD) magnet, but the first-order theory cannot represent the magnetism of a simple system of randomly oriented SD magnets. Such a system can be represented by a second-order Preisach theory, which requires the measurement of magnetization curves after two reversals of the direction of change. One can generalize this process to higher order reversal curves, although each increase in the number of reversals greatly increases the number of measurements that are needed. The magnetic hysteresis of systems of interacting SD magnets is calculated using numerical homotopy, a method that can find all the solutions of the equilibrium equations for such a system. The hysteresis frequently has features that cannot be represented by any order of Preisach theory. Furthermore, there are stable magnetic states that are not reachable during isothermal hysteresis unless thermal fluctuations are large enough. Such states would not be visible at room temperature but would contribute to TRM.

  3. Fractal Theory for Permeability Prediction, Venezuelan and USA Wells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aldana, Milagrosa; Altamiranda, Dignorah; Cabrera, Ana

    2014-05-01

    Inferring petrophysical parameters such as permeability, porosity, water saturation, capillary pressure, etc, from the analysis of well logs or other available core data has always been of critical importance in the oil industry. Permeability in particular, which is considered to be a complex parameter, has been inferred using both empirical and theoretical techniques. The main goal of this work is to predict permeability values on different wells using Fractal Theory, based on a method proposed by Pape et al. (1999). This approach uses the relationship between permeability and the geometric form of the pore space of the rock. This method is based on the modified equation of Kozeny-Carman and a fractal pattern, which allows determining permeability as a function of the cementation exponent, porosity and the fractal dimension. Data from wells located in Venezuela and the United States of America are analyzed. Employing data of porosity and permeability obtained from core samples, and applying the Fractal Theory method, we calculated the prediction equations for each well. At the beginning, this was achieved by training with 50% of the data available for each well. Afterwards, these equations were tested inferring over 100% of the data to analyze possible trends in their distribution. This procedure gave excellent results in all the wells in spite of their geographic distance, generating permeability models with the potential to accurately predict permeability logs in the remaining parts of the well for which there are no core samples, using even porority logs. Additionally, empirical models were used to determine permeability and the results were compared with those obtained by applying the fractal method. The results indicated that, although there are empirical equations that give a proper adjustment, the prediction results obtained using fractal theory give a better fit to the core reference data.

  4. Free-floating planets from core accretion theory: microlensing predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Sizheng; Mao, Shude; Ida, Shigeru; Zhu, Wei; Lin, Douglas N. C.

    2016-09-01

    We calculate the microlensing event rate and typical time-scales for the free-floating planet (FFP) population that is predicted by the core accretion theory of planet formation. The event rate is found to be ˜1.8 × 10-3 of that for the stellar population. While the stellar microlensing event time-scale peaks at around 20 d, the median time-scale for FFP events (˜0.1 d) is much shorter. Our values for the event rate and the median time-scale are significantly smaller than those required to explain the Sumi et al. result, by factors of ˜13 and ˜16, respectively. The inclusion of planets at wide separations does not change the results significantly. This discrepancy may be too significant for standard versions of both the core accretion theory and the gravitational instability model to explain satisfactorily. Therefore, either a modification to the planet formation theory is required or other explanations to the excess of short-time-scale microlensing events are needed. Our predictions can be tested by ongoing microlensing experiment such as Korean Microlensing Telescope Network, and by future satellite missions such as WFIRST and Euclid.

  5. Age-Related Differences in Goals: Testing Predictions from Selection, Optimization, and Compensation Theory and Socioemotional Selectivity Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penningroth, Suzanna L.; Scott, Walter D.

    2012-01-01

    Two prominent theories of lifespan development, socioemotional selectivity theory and selection, optimization, and compensation theory, make similar predictions for differences in the goal representations of younger and older adults. Our purpose was to test whether the goals of younger and older adults differed in ways predicted by these two…

  6. Infant attention to intentional action predicts preschool theory of mind.

    PubMed

    Wellman, Henry M; Lopez-Duran, Sarah; LaBounty, Jennifer; Hamilton, Betsy

    2008-03-01

    This research examines whether there are continuities between infant social attention and later theory of mind. Forty-five children were studied as infants and then again as 4-year-olds. Measures of infant social attention (decrement of attention during habituation to displays of intentional action) significantly predicted later theory of mind (false-belief understanding). Possibly, this longitudinal association could have been explained by more general developments in IQ, verbal competence, or executive function (rather than continuities in the realm of social cognition). However, the association remained significant and undiminished even when IQ, verbal competence, and executive function were controlled. The findings thus provide strong support for an important continuity in social cognition separable from continuities in more general information processing. PMID:18331149

  7. Attachment theory and theory of planned behavior: an integrative model predicting underage drinking.

    PubMed

    Lac, Andrew; Crano, William D; Berger, Dale E; Alvaro, Eusebio M

    2013-08-01

    Research indicates that peer and maternal bonds play important but sometimes contrasting roles in the outcomes of children. Less is known about attachment bonds to these 2 reference groups in young adults. Using a sample of 351 participants (18 to 20 years of age), the research integrated two theoretical traditions: attachment theory and theory of planned behavior (TPB). The predictive contribution of both theories was examined in the context of underage adult alcohol use. Using full structural equation modeling, results substantiated the hypotheses that secure peer attachment positively predicted norms and behavioral control toward alcohol, but secure maternal attachment inversely predicted attitudes and behavioral control toward alcohol. Alcohol attitudes, norms, and behavioral control each uniquely explained alcohol intentions, which anticipated an increase in alcohol behavior 1 month later. The hypothesized processes were statistically corroborated by tests of indirect and total effects. These findings support recommendations for programs designed to curtail risky levels of underage drinking using the tenets of attachment theory and TPB. PMID:23127300

  8. Sonic boom theory - Its status in prediction and minimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Darden, C. M.

    1976-01-01

    This paper gives a brief review of the currently accepted understanding of sonic boom phenomena and describes the manner in which modified linearized theory and geometric acoustics are used to predict the sonic boom caused by a complex aircraft configuration. Minimization methods that have evolved in recent years are discussed with particular attention given to a method developed by Seebass and George for an isothermal atmosphere which was modified for the real atmosphere by Darden. An additional modification which permits the relaxation of the nose bluntness requirement in the defining aircraft is also discussed. Finally, an overview of current areas of sonic boom research is given.

  9. Allocation of authority in European health policy.

    PubMed

    Adolph, Christopher; Greer, Scott L; Massard da Fonseca, Elize

    2012-11-01

    Although many study the effects of different allocations of health policy authority, few ask why countries assign responsibility over different policies as they do. We test two broad theories: fiscal federalism, which predicts rational governments will concentrate information-intensive operations at lower levels, and redistributive and regulatory functions at higher levels; and "politicized federalism", which suggests a combination of systematic and historically idiosyncratic political variables interfere with efficient allocation of authority. Drawing on the WHO Health in Transition country profiles, we present new data on the allocation of responsibility for key health care policy tasks (implementation, provision, finance, regulation, and framework legislation) and policy areas (primary, secondary and tertiary care, public health and pharmaceuticals) in the 27 EU member states and Switzerland. We use a Bayesian multinomial mixed logit model to analyze how different countries arrive at different allocations of authority over each task and area of health policy, and find the allocation of powers broadly follows fiscal federalism. Responsibility for pharmaceuticals, framework legislation, and most finance lodges at the highest levels of government, acute and primary care in the regions, and provision at the local and regional levels. Where allocation does not follow fiscal federalism, it appears to reflect ethnic divisions, the population of states and regions, the presence of mountainous terrain, and the timing of region creation. PMID:22858423

  10. Resource Allocation and Productivity in Education: Theory and Practice. Contributions to the Study of Education, Number 71.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartman, William T., Ed.; Boyd, William Lowe, Ed.

    This book analyzes microlevel resource-allocation practices from a variety of levels within the educational system: the school board, district administration, building level, and classroom. Chapters include: "Productive Schools from a Policy Perspective: Desiderata, Designs, and Dilemmas" (W. L. Boyd); "The Politics of Educational Productivity"…

  11. Plant Interactions Alter the Predictions of Metabolic Scaling Theory

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yue; Berger, Uta; Grimm, Volker; Huth, Franka; Weiner, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Metabolic scaling theory (MST) is an attempt to link physiological processes of individual organisms with macroecology. It predicts a power law relationship with an exponent of −4/3 between mean individual biomass and density during density-dependent mortality (self-thinning). Empirical tests have produced variable results, and the validity of MST is intensely debated. MST focuses on organisms’ internal physiological mechanisms but we hypothesize that ecological interactions can be more important in determining plant mass-density relationships induced by density. We employ an individual-based model of plant stand development that includes three elements: a model of individual plant growth based on MST, different modes of local competition (size-symmetric vs. -asymmetric), and different resource levels. Our model is consistent with the observed variation in the slopes of self-thinning trajectories. Slopes were significantly shallower than −4/3 if competition was size-symmetric. We conclude that when the size of survivors is influenced by strong ecological interactions, these can override predictions of MST, whereas when surviving plants are less affected by interactions, individual-level metabolic processes can scale up to the population level. MST, like thermodynamics or biomechanics, sets limits within which organisms can live and function, but there may be stronger limits determined by ecological interactions. In such cases MST will not be predictive. PMID:23460884

  12. Density functional theory predictions of isotropic hyperfine coupling constants.

    PubMed

    Hermosilla, L; Calle, P; García de la Vega, J M; Sieiro, C

    2005-02-17

    The reliability of density functional theory (DFT) in the determination of the isotropic hyperfine coupling constants (hfccs) of the ground electronic states of organic and inorganic radicals is examined. Predictions using several DFT methods and 6-31G, TZVP, EPR-III and cc-pVQZ basis sets are made and compared to experimental values. The set of 75 radicals here studied was selected using a wide range of criteria. The systems studied are neutral, cationic, anionic; doublet, triplet, quartet; localized, and conjugated radicals, containing 1H, 9Be, 11B, 13C, 14N, 17O, 19F, 23Na, 25Mg, 27Al, 29Si, 31P, 33S, and 35Cl nuclei. The considered radicals provide 241 theoretical hfcc values, which are compared with 174 available experimental ones. The geometries of the studied systems are obtained by theoretical optimization using the same functional and basis set with which the hfccs were calculated. Regression analysis is used as a basic and appropriate methodology for this kind of comparative study. From this analysis, we conclude that DFT predictions of the hfccs are reliable for B3LYP/TZVP and B3LYP/EPR-III combinations. Both functional/basis set scheme are the more useful theoretical tools for predicting hfccs if compared to other much more expensive methods.

  13. Practical theories for service life prediction of critical aerospace structural components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Monaghan, Richard C.; Jackson, Raymond H.

    1992-01-01

    A new second-order theory was developed for predicting the service lives of aerospace structural components. The predictions based on this new theory were compared with those based on the Ko first-order theory and the classical theory of service life predictions. The new theory gives very accurate service life predictions. An equivalent constant-amplitude stress cycle method was proposed for representing the random load spectrum for crack growth calculations. This method predicts the most conservative service life. The proposed use of minimum detectable crack size, instead of proof load established crack size as an initial crack size for crack growth calculations, could give a more realistic service life.

  14. Understanding predicted shifts in diazotroph biogeography using resource competition theory

    DOE PAGES

    Dutkiewicz, S.; Ward, B. A.; Scott, J. R.; Follows, M. J.

    2014-10-08

    We examine the sensitivity of the biogeography of nitrogen fixers to a warming climate and increased aeolian iron deposition in the context of a global earth system model. We employ concepts from the resource-ratio theory to provide a simplifying and transparent interpretation of the results. First we demonstrate that a set of clearly defined, easily diagnosed provinces are consistent with the theory. Using this framework we show that the regions most vulnerable to province shifts and changes in diazotroph biogeography are the equatorial and South Pacific, and central Atlantic. Warmer and dustier climates favor diazotrophs due to an increase inmore » the ratio of supply rate of iron to fixed nitrogen. We suggest that the emergent provinces could be a standard diagnostic for global change models, allowing for rapid and transparent interpretation and comparison of model predictions and the underlying mechanisms. The analysis suggests that monitoring of real world province boundaries, indicated by transitions in surface nutrient concentrations, would provide a clear and easily interpreted indicator of ongoing global change.« less

  15. Understanding predicted shifts in diazotroph biogeography using resource competition theory

    DOE PAGES

    Dutkiewicz, S.; Ward, B. A.; Scott, J. R.; Follows, M. J.

    2014-05-19

    We examine the sensitivity of the biogeography of nitrogen fixers to a warming climate and increased aeolian iron deposition in the context of a global Earth System Model. We employ concepts from Resource Ratio Theory to provide a simplifying and transparent interpretation of the results. First we demonstrate that a set of clearly defined, easily diagnosed provinces are consistent with the theory. Using the framework we show that the regions most vulnerable to province shifts and changes in diazotroph biogeography are the Equatorial and South Pacific, and central Atlantic. Warmer and dustier climates favor diazotrophs due to an increase inmore » the ratio of supply rate of iron to fixed nitrogen. The analysis suggests that monitoring of real world province boundaries, indicated by transitions in surface nutrient concentrations, would provide a clear and easily interpreted indicator of ongoing global change. We suggest that the emergent provinces could be a standard diagnostic for global change models, allowing for rapid and transparent interpretation and comparison of model predictions and the underlying mechanisms.« less

  16. Transition-state theory predicts clogging at the microscale.

    PubMed

    Laar, T van de; Klooster, S Ten; Schroën, K; Sprakel, J

    2016-01-01

    Clogging is one of the main failure mechanisms encountered in industrial processes such as membrane filtration. Our understanding of the factors that govern the build-up of fouling layers and the emergence of clogs is largely incomplete, so that prevention of clogging remains an immense and costly challenge. In this paper we use a microfluidic model combined with quantitative real-time imaging to explore the influence of pore geometry and particle interactions on suspension clogging in constrictions, two crucial factors which remain relatively unexplored. We find a distinct dependence of the clogging rate on the entrance angle to a membrane pore which we explain quantitatively by deriving a model, based on transition-state theory, which describes the effect of viscous forces on the rate with which particles accumulate at the channel walls. With the same model we can also predict the effect of the particle interaction potential on the clogging rate. In both cases we find excellent agreement between our experimental data and theory. A better understanding of these clogging mechanisms and the influence of design parameters could form a stepping stone to delay or prevent clogging by rational membrane design. PMID:27328715

  17. Transition-state theory predicts clogging at the microscale

    PubMed Central

    Laar, T. van de; Klooster, S. ten; Schroën, K.; Sprakel, J.

    2016-01-01

    Clogging is one of the main failure mechanisms encountered in industrial processes such as membrane filtration. Our understanding of the factors that govern the build-up of fouling layers and the emergence of clogs is largely incomplete, so that prevention of clogging remains an immense and costly challenge. In this paper we use a microfluidic model combined with quantitative real-time imaging to explore the influence of pore geometry and particle interactions on suspension clogging in constrictions, two crucial factors which remain relatively unexplored. We find a distinct dependence of the clogging rate on the entrance angle to a membrane pore which we explain quantitatively by deriving a model, based on transition-state theory, which describes the effect of viscous forces on the rate with which particles accumulate at the channel walls. With the same model we can also predict the effect of the particle interaction potential on the clogging rate. In both cases we find excellent agreement between our experimental data and theory. A better understanding of these clogging mechanisms and the influence of design parameters could form a stepping stone to delay or prevent clogging by rational membrane design. PMID:27328715

  18. Transition-state theory predicts clogging at the microscale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laar, T. Van De; Klooster, S. Ten; Schroën, K.; Sprakel, J.

    2016-06-01

    Clogging is one of the main failure mechanisms encountered in industrial processes such as membrane filtration. Our understanding of the factors that govern the build-up of fouling layers and the emergence of clogs is largely incomplete, so that prevention of clogging remains an immense and costly challenge. In this paper we use a microfluidic model combined with quantitative real-time imaging to explore the influence of pore geometry and particle interactions on suspension clogging in constrictions, two crucial factors which remain relatively unexplored. We find a distinct dependence of the clogging rate on the entrance angle to a membrane pore which we explain quantitatively by deriving a model, based on transition-state theory, which describes the effect of viscous forces on the rate with which particles accumulate at the channel walls. With the same model we can also predict the effect of the particle interaction potential on the clogging rate. In both cases we find excellent agreement between our experimental data and theory. A better understanding of these clogging mechanisms and the influence of design parameters could form a stepping stone to delay or prevent clogging by rational membrane design.

  19. Resource Allocation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stennett, R. G.

    A research allocation formula employed in London, Ontario elementary schools, as well as supporting data on the method, are provided in this report. Attempts to improve on the traditional methods of resource allocation in London's schools were based on two principles: (1) that need for a particular service could and should be determined…

  20. Singular perturbation theory for predicting extravasation of Brownian particles

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Preyas; Fitzgibbon, Sean; Narsimhan, Vivek; Shaqfeh, Eric S. G.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by recent studies on tumor treatments using the drug delivery of nanoparticles, we provide a singular perturbation theory and perform Brownian dynamics simulations to quantify the extravasation rate of Brownian particles in a shear flow over a circular pore with a lumped mass transfer resistance. The analytic theory we present is an expansion in the limit of a vanishing Péclet number (P), which is the ratio of convective fluxes to diffusive fluxes on the length scale of the pore. We state the concentration of particles near the pore and the extravasation rate (Sherwood number) to O(P1/2). This model improves upon previous studies because the results are valid for all values of the particle mass transfer coefficient across the pore, as modeled by the Damköhler number (κ), which is the ratio of the reaction rate to the diffusive mass transfer rate at the boundary. Previous studies focused on the adsorption-dominated regime (i.e., κ → ∞). Specifically, our work provides a theoretical basis and an interpolation-based approximate method for calculating the Sherwood number (a measure of the extravasation rate) for the case of finite resistance [κ ~ O(1)] at small Péclet numbers, which are physiologically important in the extravasation of nanoparticles. We compare the predictions of our theory and an approximate method to Brownian dynamics simulations with reflection–reaction boundary conditions as modeled by κ. They are found to agree well at small P and for the κ ≪ 1 and κ ≫ 1 asymptotic limits representing the diffusion-dominated and adsorption-dominated regimes, respectively. Although this model neglects the finite size effects of the particles, it provides an important first step toward understanding the physics of extravasation in the tumor vasculature. PMID:24563548

  1. Predicting Stability Constants for Uranyl Complexes Using Density Functional Theory

    DOE PAGES

    Vukovic, Sinisa; Hay, Benjamin P.; Bryantsev, Vyacheslav S.

    2015-04-02

    The ability to predict the equilibrium constants for the formation of 1:1 uranyl:ligand complexes (log K1 values) provides the essential foundation for the rational design of ligands with enhanced uranyl affinity and selectivity. We also use density functional theory (B3LYP) and the IEFPCM continuum solvation model to compute aqueous stability constants for UO22+ complexes with 18 donor ligands. Theoretical calculations permit reasonably good estimates of relative binding strengths, while the absolute log K1 values are significantly overestimated. Accurate predictions of the absolute log K1 values (root mean square deviation from experiment < 1.0 for log K1 values ranging from 0more » to 16.8) can be obtained by fitting the experimental data for two groups of mono and divalent negative oxygen donor ligands. The utility of correlations is demonstrated for amidoxime and imide dioxime ligands, providing a useful means of screening for new ligands with strong chelate capability to uranyl.« less

  2. Predicting Stability Constants for Uranyl Complexes Using Density Functional Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Vukovic, Sinisa; Hay, Benjamin P.; Bryantsev, Vyacheslav S.

    2015-04-02

    The ability to predict the equilibrium constants for the formation of 1:1 uranyl:ligand complexes (log K1 values) provides the essential foundation for the rational design of ligands with enhanced uranyl affinity and selectivity. We also use density functional theory (B3LYP) and the IEFPCM continuum solvation model to compute aqueous stability constants for UO22+ complexes with 18 donor ligands. Theoretical calculations permit reasonably good estimates of relative binding strengths, while the absolute log K1 values are significantly overestimated. Accurate predictions of the absolute log K1 values (root mean square deviation from experiment < 1.0 for log K1 values ranging from 0 to 16.8) can be obtained by fitting the experimental data for two groups of mono and divalent negative oxygen donor ligands. The utility of correlations is demonstrated for amidoxime and imide dioxime ligands, providing a useful means of screening for new ligands with strong chelate capability to uranyl.

  3. Fatigue-Life Prediction Methodology Using Small-Crack Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newmann, James C., Jr.; Phillips, Edward P.; Swain, M. H.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews the capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model to predict fatigue lives of metallic materials using 'small-crack theory' for various materials and loading conditions. Crack-tip constraint factors, to account for three-dimensional state-of-stress effects, were selected to correlate large-crack growth rate data as a function of the effective-stress-intensity factor range (delta K(eff)) under constant-amplitude loading. Some modifications to the delta k(eff)-rate relations were needed in the near-threshold regime to fit measured small-crack growth rate behavior and fatigue endurance limits. The model was then used to calculate small- and large-crack growth rates, and to predict total fatigue lives, for notched and un-notched specimens made of two aluminum alloys and a steel under constant-amplitude and spectrum loading. Fatigue lives were calculated using the crack-growth relations and microstructural features like those that initiated cracks for the aluminum alloys and steel for edge-notched specimens. An equivalent-initial-flaw-size concept was used to calculate fatigue lives in other cases. Results from the tests and analyses agreed well.

  4. Incorporation of Half-Cycle Theory Into Ko Aging Theory for Aerostructural Flight-Life Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Tran, Van T.; Chen, Tony

    2007-01-01

    The half-cycle crack growth theory was incorporated into the Ko closed-form aging theory to improve accuracy in the predictions of operational flight life of failure-critical aerostructural components. A new crack growth computer program was written for reading the maximum and minimum loads of each half-cycle from the random loading spectra for crack growth calculations and generation of in-flight crack growth curves. The unified theories were then applied to calculate the number of flights (operational life) permitted for B-52B pylon hooks and Pegasus adapter pylon hooks to carry the Hyper-X launching vehicle that air launches the X-43 Hyper-X research vehicle. A crack growth curve for each hook was generated for visual observation of the crack growth behavior during the entire air-launching or captive flight. It was found that taxiing and the takeoff run induced a major portion of the total crack growth per flight. The operational life theory presented can be applied to estimate the service life of any failure-critical structural components.

  5. A Collateral Effect of Reward Predicted by Matching Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mace, F. Charles; And Others

    1990-01-01

    The behavior of special education students (age 12 and 16) was evaluated as they were presented with 2 academic response alternatives on concurrent reinforcement schedules. Both subjects allocated higher rates of responses to the richer schedule of reinforcement, although only 1 responded exclusively to the richer schedule. (Author/JDD)

  6. Observational attachment theory-based parenting measures predict children's attachment narratives independently from social learning theory-based measures.

    PubMed

    Matias, Carla; O'Connor, Thomas G; Futh, Annabel; Scott, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Conceptually and methodologically distinct models exist for assessing quality of parent-child relationships, but few studies contrast competing models or assess their overlap in predicting developmental outcomes. Using observational methodology, the current study examined the distinctiveness of attachment theory-based and social learning theory-based measures of parenting in predicting two key measures of child adjustment: security of attachment narratives and social acceptance in peer nominations. A total of 113 5-6-year-old children from ethnically diverse families participated. Parent-child relationships were rated using standard paradigms. Measures derived from attachment theory included sensitive responding and mutuality; measures derived from social learning theory included positive attending, directives, and criticism. Child outcomes were independently-rated attachment narrative representations and peer nominations. Results indicated that Attachment theory-based and Social Learning theory-based measures were modestly correlated; nonetheless, parent-child mutuality predicted secure child attachment narratives independently of social learning theory-based measures; in contrast, criticism predicted peer-nominated fighting independently of attachment theory-based measures. In young children, there is some evidence that attachment theory-based measures may be particularly predictive of attachment narratives; however, no single model of measuring parent-child relationships is likely to best predict multiple developmental outcomes. Assessment in research and applied settings may benefit from integration of different theoretical and methodological paradigms.

  7. Implicit Theories Relate to Youth Psychopathology, But How? A Longitudinal Test of Two Predictive Models.

    PubMed

    Schleider, Jessica L; Weisz, John R

    2016-08-01

    Research shows relations between entity theories-i.e., beliefs that traits and abilities are unchangeable-and youth psychopathology. A common interpretation has been that entity theories lead to psychopathology, but another possibility is that psychopathology predicts entity theories. The two models carry different implications for developmental psychopathology and intervention design. We tested each model's plausibility, examining longitudinal associations between entity theories of thoughts, feelings, and behavior and psychopathology in early adolescents across one school year (N = 59, 52 % female, ages 11-14, 0 % attrition). Baseline entity theories did not predict increases in psychopathology; instead, baseline psychopathology predicted increased entity theories over time. When symptom clusters were assessed individually, greater youth internalizing (but not externalizing) problems predicted subsequent increases in entity theories. Findings suggest that the commonly proposed predictive model may not be the only one warranting attention. They suggest that youth psychopathology may contribute to the development of certain kinds of entity theories.

  8. High pressure electrides: a predictive chemical and physical theory.

    PubMed

    Miao, Mao-Sheng; Hoffmann, Roald

    2014-04-15

    Electrides, in which electrons occupy interstitial regions in the crystal and behave as anions, appear as new phases for many elements (and compounds) under high pressure. We propose a unified theory of high pressure electrides (HPEs) by treating electrons in the interstitial sites as filling the quantized orbitals of the interstitial space enclosed by the surrounding atom cores, generating what we call an interstitial quasi-atom, ISQ. With increasing pressure, the energies of the valence orbitals of atoms increase more significantly than the ISQ levels, due to repulsion, exclusion by the atom cores, effectively giving the valence electrons less room in which to move. At a high enough pressure, which depends on the element and its orbitals, the frontier atomic electron may become higher in energy than the ISQ, resulting in electron transfer to the interstitial space and the formation of an HPE. By using a He lattice model to compress (with minimal orbital interaction at moderate pressures between the surrounding He and the contained atoms or molecules) atoms and an interstitial space, we are able to semiquantitatively explain and predict the propensity of various elements to form HPEs. The slopes in energy of various orbitals with pressure (s > p > d) are essential for identifying trends across the entire Periodic Table. We predict that the elements forming HPEs under 500 GPa will be Li, Na (both already known to do so), Al, and, near the high end of this pressure range, Mg, Si, Tl, In, and Pb. Ferromagnetic electrides for the heavier alkali metals, suggested by Pickard and Needs, potentially compete with transformation to d-group metals. PMID:24702165

  9. Supersymmetric axion grand unified theories and their predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Co, Raymond T.; D'Eramo, Francesco; Hall, Lawrence J.

    2016-10-01

    We introduce a class of unified supersymmetric axion theories with unified and Peccei-Quinn (PQ) symmetries broken by the same set of fields at a scale ˜2 ×1 016 GeV . A typical domain wall number of order 30 leads to an axion decay constant fa of order 1 015 GeV . Inflation generates a large saxion condensate, giving a reheat temperature TR below the QCD scale for supersymmetry breaking of order 1-10 TeV. Axion field oscillations commence in the saxion matter-dominated era near the QCD scale, and recent lattice computations of the temperature dependence of the axion mass in this era allow a controlled calculation of the axion dark matter abundance. The observed abundance can be successfully explained by an initial axion misalignment angle of order unity, θi˜1 . A highly correlated set of predictions is discussed for fa, TR, the supersymmetric Higgs mass parameter μ , the amount of dark radiation Δ Neff, the proton decay rate Γ (p →e+π0), isocurvature density perturbations and the B mode of the cosmic microwave background. The last two are particularly interesting when the energy scale of inflation is also of order 1 016 GeV .

  10. Empirical Predictions from a General Theory of Signs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oller, John W., Jr.; Chen, Liang; Oller, Stephen D.; Pan, Ning

    2005-01-01

    General sign theory (GST) deals with how distinct sign systems are grounded, developed with increasing abstractness over time, and differentiated in efficacies in experience and discourse. GST has 3 components: The theory of true narrative representations (TNR theory) shows that TNRs are unique in being relatively well determined with respect to…

  11. Genetic association between male attractiveness and female differential allocation

    PubMed Central

    Head, Megan L; Hunt, John; Brooks, Robert

    2006-01-01

    Differential allocation of reproductive effort towards offspring of attractive mates is a form of post-copulatory mate choice. Although differential allocation has been demonstrated in many taxa, its evolutionary implications have received little attention. Theory predicts that mate choice will lead to a positive genetic correlation between female preference and male attractiveness. This prediction has been upheld for pre-copulatory mate choice, but whether such a relationship between male attractiveness and female differential allocation exists has never been tested. Here, we show that both female pre-copulatory mate choice and post-copulatory differential allocation are genetically associated with male attractiveness in house crickets, Acheta domesticus. Daughters of attractive males mated sooner and laid more eggs when paired with larger males. These forms of mate choice are strongest in large females, suggesting that costs decrease with increasing female size. The genetic association between attractiveness and differential allocation suggests potential for differential allocation to become exaggerated by coevolutionary runaway processes in an analogous manner to pre-copulatory choice. Sexual selection is thus likely to be stronger than predicted by pre-copulatory choice alone. PMID:17148398

  12. Applicability of the theory of thermodynamic similarity to predict the enthalpies of vaporization of aliphatic aldehydes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esina, Z. N.; Korchuganova, M. R.

    2015-06-01

    The theory of thermodynamic similarity is used to predict the enthalpies of vaporization of aliphatic aldehydes. The predicted data allow us to calculate the phase diagrams of liquid-vapor equilibrium in a binary water-aliphatic aldehyde system.

  13. Optimizing reproductive phenology in a two-resource world: a dynamic allocation model of plant growth predicts later reproduction in phosphorus-limited plants

    PubMed Central

    Nord, Eric A.; Shea, Katriona; Lynch, Jonathan P.

    2011-01-01

    Background and Aims Timing of reproduction is a key life-history trait that is regulated by resource availability. Delayed reproduction in soils with low phosphorus availability is common among annuals, in contrast to the accelerated reproduction typical of other low-nutrient environments. It is hypothesized that this anomalous response arises from the high marginal value of additional allocation to root growth caused by the low mobility of phosphorus in soils. Methods To better understand the benefits and costs of such delayed reproduction, a two-resource dynamic allocation model of plant growth and reproduction is presented. The model incorporates growth, respiration, and carbon and phosphorus acquisition of both root and shoot tissue, and considers the reallocation of resources from senescent leaves. The model is parameterized with data from Arabidopsis and the optimal reproductive phenology is explored in a range of environments. Key Results The model predicts delayed reproduction in low-phosphorus environments. Reproductive timing in low-phosphorus environments is quite sensitive to phosphorus mobility, but is less sensitive to the temporal distribution of mortality risks. In low-phosphorus environments, the relative metabolic cost of roots was greater, and reproductive allocation reduced, compared with high-phosphorus conditions. The model suggests that delayed reproduction in response to low phosphorus availability may be reduced in plants adapted to environments where phosphorus mobility is greater. Conclusions Delayed reproduction in low-phosphorus soils can be a beneficial response allowing for increased acquisition and utilization of phosphorus. This finding has implications both for efforts to breed crops for low-phosphorus soils, and for efforts to understand how climate change may impact plant growth and productivity in low-phosphorus environments. PMID:21712299

  14. Coupling carbon allocation with leaf and root phenology predicts tree-grass partitioning along a savanna rainfall gradient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Raupach, M.; Briggs, P.; Nieradzik, L.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L.; Trudinger, C. M.; Cleverly, J.

    2015-10-01

    The relative complexity of the mechanisms underlying savanna ecosystem dynamics, in comparison to other biomes such as temperate and tropical forests, challenges the representation of such dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. A realistic representation of processes governing carbon allocation and phenology for the two defining elements of savanna vegetation (namely trees and grasses) may be a key to understanding variations in tree/grass partitioning in time and space across the savanna biome worldwide. Here we present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation, applied to competing tree and grass plant functional types. The approach accounts for a temporal shift between assimilation and growth, mediated by a labile carbohydrate store. This is combined with a method to maximise long-term net primary production (NPP) by optimally partitioning plant growth between fine roots and (leaves + stem). The computational efficiency of the analytic method used here allows it to be uniquely and readily applied at regional scale, as required, for example, within the framework of a global biogeochemical model. We demonstrate the approach by encoding it in a new simple carbon/water cycle model that we call HAVANA (Hydrology and Vegetation-dynamics Algorithm for Northern Australia), coupled to the existing POP (Population Orders Physiology) model for tree demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. HAVANA-POP is calibrated using monthly remotely-sensed fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) and eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon and water fluxes at 5 tower sites along the Northern Australian Tropical Transect (NATT), which is characterized by large gradients in rainfall and wildfire disturbance. The calibrated model replicates observed gradients of fPAR, tree leaf area index, basal area and foliage projective cover along the NATT. The model behaviour emerges from complex feed-backs between the plant

  15. Coupling carbon allocation with leaf and root phenology predicts tree-grass partitioning along a savanna rainfall gradient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Raupach, M.; Briggs, P.; Nieradzik, L.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L.; Trudinger, C. M.; Cleverly, J.

    2016-02-01

    The relative complexity of the mechanisms underlying savanna ecosystem dynamics, in comparison to other biomes such as temperate and tropical forests, challenges the representation of such dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. A realistic representation of processes governing carbon allocation and phenology for the two defining elements of savanna vegetation (namely trees and grasses) may be a key to understanding variations in tree-grass partitioning in time and space across the savanna biome worldwide. Here we present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation, applied to competing tree and grass plant functional types. The approach accounts for a temporal shift between assimilation and growth, mediated by a labile carbohydrate store. This is combined with a method to maximize long-term net primary production (NPP) by optimally partitioning plant growth between fine roots and (leaves + stem). The computational efficiency of the analytic method used here allows it to be uniquely and readily applied at regional scale, as required, for example, within the framework of a global biogeochemical model.We demonstrate the approach by encoding it in a new simple carbon-water cycle model that we call HAVANA (Hydrology and Vegetation-dynamics Algorithm for Northern Australia), coupled to the existing POP (Population Orders Physiology) model for tree demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. HAVANA-POP is calibrated using monthly remotely sensed fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) and eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon and water fluxes at five tower sites along the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT), which is characterized by large gradients in rainfall and wildfire disturbance. The calibrated model replicates observed gradients of fPAR, tree leaf area index, basal area, and foliage projective cover along the NATT. The model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant

  16. Predicting Proenvironmental Behavior Cross-Nationally: Values, the Theory of Planned Behavior, and Value-Belief-Norm Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oreg, Shaul; Katz-Gerro, Tally

    2006-01-01

    This article builds on Ajzen's theory of planned behavior and on Stern et al.'s value-belief-norm theory to propose and test a model that predicts proenvironmental behavior. In addition to relationships between beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors, we incorporate Inglehart's postmaterialist and Schwartz's harmony value dimensions as contextual…

  17. Resource Allocation in Public Research Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Santos, Jose L.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to conduct an econometric analysis of internal resource allocation. Two theories are used for this study of resource allocation in public research universities, and these are: (1) Theory of the Firm; and (2) Resource Dependence Theory. This study used the American Association of Universities Data Exchange (AAUDE)…

  18. The Utility of Situational Theory of Publics for Assessing Public Response to a Disaster Prediction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Major, Anne Marie

    1998-01-01

    Examines the utility of public-relations theory, specifically situational theory of publics, for assessing response to the New Madrid earthquake prediction. Finds that high personalized risk was associated with high constraint recognition regardless of belief in the prediction. Suggests development of more effective messages for communicating with…

  19. Comparison of the Modified Biot-Gassmann Theory and the Kuster-Toksoz Theory in Predicting Elastic Velocities of Sediments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, Myung W.

    2008-01-01

    Elastic velocities of water-saturated sandstones depend primarily on porosity, effective pressure, and the degree of consolidation. If the dry-frame moduli are known, from either measurements or theoretical calculations, the effect of pore water on velocities can be modeled using the Gassmann theory. Kuster and Toksoz developed a theory based on wave-scattering theory for a variety of inclusion shapes, which provides a means for calculating dry- or wet-frame moduli. In the Kuster-Toksoz theory, elastic wave velocities through different sediments can be predicted by using different aspect ratios of the sediment's pore space. Elastic velocities increase as the pore aspect ratio increases (larger pore aspect ratio describes a more spherical pore). On the basis of the velocity ratio, which is assumed to be a function of (1-0)n, and the Biot-Gassmann theory, Lee developed a semi-empirical equation for predicting elastic velocities, which is referred to as the modified Biot-Gassmann theory of Lee. In this formulation, the exponent n, which depends on the effective pressure and the degree of consolidation, controls elastic velocities; as n increases, elastic velocities decrease. Computationally, the role of exponent n in the modified Biot-Gassmann theory by Lee is similar to the role of pore aspect ratios in the Kuster-Toksoz theory. For consolidated sediments, either theory predicts accurate velocities. However, for unconsolidated sediments, the modified Biot-Gassmann theory by Lee performs better than the Kuster-Toksoz theory, particularly in predicting S-wave velocities.

  20. An Integrated Theory for Predicting the Hydrothermomechanical Response of Advanced Composite Structural Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.; Lark, R. F.; Sinclair, J. H.

    1977-01-01

    An integrated theory is developed for predicting the hydrothermomechanical (HDTM) response of fiber composite components. The integrated theory is based on a combined theoretical and experimental investigation. In addition to predicting the HDTM response of components, the theory is structured to assess the combined hydrothermal effects on the mechanical properties of unidirectional composites loaded along the material axis and off-axis, and those of angleplied laminates. The theory developed predicts values which are in good agreement with measured data at the micromechanics, macromechanics, laminate analysis and structural analysis levels.

  1. Predicting parental anticonvulsant medication compliance using the theory of reasoned action.

    PubMed

    Austin, J K

    1989-04-01

    One approach to better understanding compliance behavior is the use of the theory of reasoned action. In this article, the theory of reasoned action is used to predict the compliance behavior of 29 parents of children with epilespy. In support of the theory, behavioral intention was found to significantly predict (p less than 0.01) parental medicine-giving behavior. Contrary to the results predicted by the theory, parents' attitudes toward giving the medication correlated with a significant amount of variance in medicine-giving behavior beyond that accounted for by behavioral intention.

  2. SuMoToRI, an Ecophysiological Model to Predict Growth and Sulfur Allocation and Partitioning in Oilseed Rape (Brassica napus L.) Until the Onset of Pod Formation.

    PubMed

    Brunel-Muguet, Sophie; Mollier, Alain; Kauffmann, François; Avice, Jean-Christophe; Goudier, Damien; Sénécal, Emmanuelle; Etienne, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Sulfur (S) nutrition in rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) is a major concern for this high S-demanding crop, especially in the context of soil S oligotrophy. Therefore, predicting plant growth, S plant allocation (between the plant's compartments) and S pool partitioning (repartition of the mobile-S vs. non-mobile-S fractions) until the onset of reproductive phase could help in the diagnosis of S deficiencies during the early stages. For this purpose, a process-based model, SuMoToRI (Sulfur Model Toward Rapeseed Improvement), was developed up to the onset of pod formation. The key features rely on (i) the determination of the S requirements used for growth (structural and metabolic functions) through critical S dilution curves and (ii) the estimation of a mobile pool of S that is regenerated by daily S uptake and remobilization from senescing leaves. This study describes the functioning of the model and presents the model's calibration and evaluation. SuMoToRI was calibrated and evaluated with independent datasets from greenhouse experiments under contrasting S supply conditions. It is run with a small number of parameters with generic values, except in the case of the radiation use efficiency, which was shown to be modulated by S supply. The model gave satisfying predictions of the dynamics of growth, S allocation between compartments and S partitioning, such as the mobile-S fraction in the leaves, which is an indicator of the remobilization potential toward growing sinks. The mechanistic features of SuMoToRI provide a process-based framework that has enabled the description of the S remobilizing process in a species characterized by senescence during the vegetative phase. We believe that this model structure could be useful for modeling S dynamics in other arable crops that have similar senescence-related characteristics. PMID:26635825

  3. SuMoToRI, an Ecophysiological Model to Predict Growth and Sulfur Allocation and Partitioning in Oilseed Rape (Brassica napus L.) Until the Onset of Pod Formation

    PubMed Central

    Brunel-Muguet, Sophie; Mollier, Alain; Kauffmann, François; Avice, Jean-Christophe; Goudier, Damien; Sénécal, Emmanuelle; Etienne, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Sulfur (S) nutrition in rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) is a major concern for this high S-demanding crop, especially in the context of soil S oligotrophy. Therefore, predicting plant growth, S plant allocation (between the plant’s compartments) and S pool partitioning (repartition of the mobile-S vs. non-mobile-S fractions) until the onset of reproductive phase could help in the diagnosis of S deficiencies during the early stages. For this purpose, a process-based model, SuMoToRI (Sulfur Model Toward Rapeseed Improvement), was developed up to the onset of pod formation. The key features rely on (i) the determination of the S requirements used for growth (structural and metabolic functions) through critical S dilution curves and (ii) the estimation of a mobile pool of S that is regenerated by daily S uptake and remobilization from senescing leaves. This study describes the functioning of the model and presents the model’s calibration and evaluation. SuMoToRI was calibrated and evaluated with independent datasets from greenhouse experiments under contrasting S supply conditions. It is run with a small number of parameters with generic values, except in the case of the radiation use efficiency, which was shown to be modulated by S supply. The model gave satisfying predictions of the dynamics of growth, S allocation between compartments and S partitioning, such as the mobile-S fraction in the leaves, which is an indicator of the remobilization potential toward growing sinks. The mechanistic features of SuMoToRI provide a process-based framework that has enabled the description of the S remobilizing process in a species characterized by senescence during the vegetative phase. We believe that this model structure could be useful for modeling S dynamics in other arable crops that have similar senescence-related characteristics. PMID:26635825

  4. Experimental evaluation of a flat wake theory for predicting rotor inflow-wake velocities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, John C.

    1992-01-01

    The theory for predicting helicopter inflow-wake velocities called flat wake theory was correlated with several sets of experimental data. The theory was developed by V. E. Baskin of the USSR, and a computer code known as DOWN was developed at Princeton University to implement the theory. The theory treats the wake geometry as rigid without interaction between induced velocities and wake structure. The wake structure is assumed to be a flat sheet of vorticity composed of trailing elements whose strength depends on the azimuthal and radial distributions of circulation on a rotor blade. The code predicts the three orthogonal components of flow velocity in the field surrounding the rotor. The predictions can be utilized in rotor performance and helicopter real-time flight-path simulation. The predictive capability of the coded version of flat wake theory provides vertical inflow patterns similar to experimental patterns.

  5. How do birds' tails work? Delta-wing theory fails to predict tail shape during flight.

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Matthew R; Rosén, Mikael; Park, Kirsty J; Hedenström, Anders

    2002-01-01

    Birds appear to use their tails during flight, but until recently the aerodynamic role that tails fulfil was largely unknown. In recent years delta-wing theory, devised to predict the aerodynamics of high-performance aircraft, has been applied to the tails of birds and has been successful in providing a model for the aerodynamics of a bird's tail. This theory now provides the conventional explanation for how birds' tails work. A delta-wing theory (slender-wing theory) has been used, as part of a variable-geometry model to predict how tail and wing shape should vary during flight at different airspeeds. We tested these predictions using barn swallows flying in a wind tunnel. We show that the predictions are not quantitatively well supported. This suggests that a new theory or a modified version of delta-wing theory is needed to adequately explain the way in which morphology varies during flight. PMID:12028763

  6. Heterogenous allocation of chips promotes fairness in the Ultimatum Game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Wei; Wu, Te; Li, Zhiwu; Wu, Naiqi; Wang, Long

    2015-03-01

    In an economic Ultimatum Game, two players interact to decide how to split a certain amount of money. The proposer formulates an allocation scheme to divide the sum, and the responder's decision is, either adoption, in which case both players are rewarded in accordance with the scheme, or rejection, in which case neither player is benefited. The economic theory and game theory predict that a rational proposer will offer his opponent a minimal but nonzero share and the responder will admit this scheme. However, this prediction is impractical in real situations and abundant experiments and theories are presented to resolve the discrepancy. Here, we concentrate on investigating the impact of heterogenous allocation of the chips on the evolution of fairness in the framework of the evolutionary game theory. The proposer has the privilege to offer the amount of the chips and make the allocation resolution to the responder. Interestingly, it is found that fairness prevails when the proposer is courageous enough to offer more chips to unsuccessful opponents. Moreover, we find that an amplifying group interaction enlarges the effects of heterogenous allocation of the chips on the evolution of fairness.

  7. Implicit theories about willpower predict the activation of a rest goal following self-control exertion.

    PubMed

    Job, Veronika; Bernecker, Katharina; Miketta, Stefanie; Friese, Malte

    2015-10-01

    Past research indicates that peoples' implicit theories about the nature of willpower moderate the ego-depletion effect. Only people who believe or were led to believe that willpower is a limited resource (limited-resource theory) showed lower self-control performance after an initial demanding task. As of yet, the underlying processes explaining this moderating effect by theories about willpower remain unknown. Here, we propose that the exertion of self-control activates the goal to preserve and replenish mental resources (rest goal) in people with a limited-resource theory. Five studies tested this hypothesis. In Study 1, individual differences in implicit theories about willpower predicted increased accessibility of a rest goal after self-control exertion. Furthermore, measured (Study 2) and manipulated (Study 3) willpower theories predicted an increased preference for rest-conducive objects. Finally, Studies 4 and 5 provide evidence that theories about willpower predict actual resting behavior: In Study 4, participants who held a limited-resource theory took a longer break following self-control exertion than participants with a nonlimited-resource theory. Longer resting time predicted decreased rest goal accessibility afterward. In Study 5, participants with an induced limited-resource theory sat longer on chairs in an ostensible product-testing task when they had engaged in a task requiring self-control beforehand. This research provides consistent support for a motivational shift toward rest after self-control exertion in people holding a limited-resource theory about willpower. PMID:26075793

  8. Implicit theories about willpower predict the activation of a rest goal following self-control exertion.

    PubMed

    Job, Veronika; Bernecker, Katharina; Miketta, Stefanie; Friese, Malte

    2015-10-01

    Past research indicates that peoples' implicit theories about the nature of willpower moderate the ego-depletion effect. Only people who believe or were led to believe that willpower is a limited resource (limited-resource theory) showed lower self-control performance after an initial demanding task. As of yet, the underlying processes explaining this moderating effect by theories about willpower remain unknown. Here, we propose that the exertion of self-control activates the goal to preserve and replenish mental resources (rest goal) in people with a limited-resource theory. Five studies tested this hypothesis. In Study 1, individual differences in implicit theories about willpower predicted increased accessibility of a rest goal after self-control exertion. Furthermore, measured (Study 2) and manipulated (Study 3) willpower theories predicted an increased preference for rest-conducive objects. Finally, Studies 4 and 5 provide evidence that theories about willpower predict actual resting behavior: In Study 4, participants who held a limited-resource theory took a longer break following self-control exertion than participants with a nonlimited-resource theory. Longer resting time predicted decreased rest goal accessibility afterward. In Study 5, participants with an induced limited-resource theory sat longer on chairs in an ostensible product-testing task when they had engaged in a task requiring self-control beforehand. This research provides consistent support for a motivational shift toward rest after self-control exertion in people holding a limited-resource theory about willpower.

  9. Extended Aging Theories for Predictions of Safe Operational Life of Critical Airborne Structural Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Chen, Tony

    2006-01-01

    The previously developed Ko closed-form aging theory has been reformulated into a more compact mathematical form for easier application. A new equivalent loading theory and empirical loading theories have also been developed and incorporated into the revised Ko aging theory for the prediction of a safe operational life of airborne failure-critical structural components. The new set of aging and loading theories were applied to predict the safe number of flights for the B-52B aircraft to carry a launch vehicle, the structural life of critical components consumed by load excursion to proof load value, and the ground-sitting life of B-52B pylon failure-critical structural components. A special life prediction method was developed for the preflight predictions of operational life of failure-critical structural components of the B-52H pylon system, for which no flight data are available.

  10. Testing Theories That Predict Time Variation of Fundamental Constants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landau, Susana J.; Vucetich, Hector

    2002-05-01

    We consider astronomical and local bounds on the time variation of fundamental constants to test some generic Kaluza-Klein-like models and some particular cases of Beckenstein theory. Bounds on the free parameters of the different theories are obtained. Furthermore, we find that none of the proposed models is able to explain recent results (as from Webb and coworkers in 1999 and 2001) claiming an observed variation of the fine-structure constant from quasar absorption systems at redshifts 0.5

  11. Comparing three attitude-behavior theories for predicting science teachers' intentions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zint, Michaela

    2002-11-01

    Social psychologists' attitude-behavior theories can contribute to understanding science teachers' behaviors. Such understanding can, in turn, be used to improve professional development. This article describes leading attitude-behavior theories and summarizes results from past tests of these theories. A study predicting science teachers' intention to incorporate environmental risk education based on these theories is also reported. Data for that study were collected through a mail questionnaire (n = 1336, radjusted = 80%) and analyzed using confirmatory factor and multiple regression analysis. All determinants of intention to act in the Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior and some determinants in the Theory of Trying predicted science teachers' environmental risk education intentions. Given the consistency of results across studies, the Theory of Planned Behavior augmented with past behavior is concluded to provide the best attitude-behavior model for predicting science teachers' intention to act. Thus, science teachers' attitude toward the behavior, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norm need to be enhanced to modify their behavior. Based on the Theory of Trying, improving their attitude toward the process and toward success, and expectations of success may also result in changes. Future research should focus on identifying determinants that can further enhance the ability of these theories to predict and explain science teachers' behaviors.

  12. Observant, Nonaggressive Temperament Predicts Theory-of-Mind Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wellman, Henry M.; Lane, Jonathan D.; LaBounty, Jennifer; Olson, Sheryl L.

    2011-01-01

    Temperament dimensions influence children's approach to and participation in social interactive experiences which reflect and impact children's social understandings. Therefore, temperament differences might substantially impact theory-of-mind development in early childhood. Using longitudinal data, we report that certain early temperament…

  13. Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents.

    PubMed

    Altgassen, Mareike; Vetter, Nora C; Phillips, Louise H; Akgün, Canan; Kliegel, Matthias

    2014-11-01

    Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether theory of mind and executive control processes (specifically updating, switching, and inhibition) predict prospective memory development across adolescence. In total, 42 adolescents and 41 young adults participated in this study. Young adults outperformed adolescents on tasks of prospective memory, theory of mind, and executive functions. Switching and theory of mind predicted prospective memory performance in adolescents.

  14. Dynamically Allocated Hub in Task-Evoked Network Predicts the Vulnerable Prefrontal Locus for Contextual Memory Retrieval in Macaques.

    PubMed

    Osada, Takahiro; Adachi, Yusuke; Miyamoto, Kentaro; Jimura, Koji; Setsuie, Rieko; Miyashita, Yasushi

    2015-06-01

    Neuroimaging and neurophysiology have revealed that multiple areas in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) are activated in a specific memory task, but severity of impairment after PFC lesions is largely different depending on which activated area is damaged. The critical relationship between lesion sites and impairments has not yet been given a clear mechanistic explanation. Although recent works proposed that a whole-brain network contains hubs that play integrative roles in cortical information processing, this framework relying on an anatomy-based structural network cannot account for the vulnerable locus for a specific task, lesioning of which would bring impairment. Here, we hypothesized that (i) activated PFC areas dynamically form an ordered network centered at a task-specific "functional hub" and (ii) the lesion-effective site corresponds to the "functional hub," but not to a task-invariant "structural hub." To test these hypotheses, we conducted functional magnetic resonance imaging experiments in macaques performing a temporal contextual memory task. We found that the activated areas formed a hierarchical hub-centric network based on task-evoked directed connectivity, differently from the anatomical network reflecting axonal projection patterns. Using a novel simulated-lesion method based on support vector machine, we estimated severity of impairment after lesioning of each area, which accorded well with a known dissociation in contextual memory impairment in macaques (impairment after lesioning in area 9/46d, but not in area 8Ad). The predicted severity of impairment was proportional to the network "hubness" of the virtually lesioned area in the task-evoked directed connectivity network, rather than in the anatomical network known from tracer studies. Our results suggest that PFC areas dynamically and cooperatively shape a functional hub-centric network to reallocate the lesion-effective site depending on the cognitive processes, apart from static anatomical

  15. Female sperm use and storage between fertilization events drive sperm competition and male ejaculate allocation.

    PubMed

    Requena, Gustavo S; Alonzo, Suzanne H

    2014-12-01

    Sperm competition theory has traditionally focused on how male allocation responds to female promiscuity, when males compete to fertilize a single clutch of eggs. Here, we develop a model to ask how female sperm use and storage across consecutive reproductive events affect male ejaculate allocation and patterns of mating and paternity. In our model, sperm use (a single parameter under female control) is the main determinant of sperm competition, which alters the effect of female promiscuity on male success and, ultimately, male reproductive allocation. Our theory reproduces the general pattern predicted by existing theory that increased sperm competition favors increased allocation to ejaculates. However, our model predicts a negative correlation between male ejaculate allocation and female promiscuity, challenging the generality of a prevailing expectation of sperm competition theory. Early models assumed that the energetic costs of precopulatory competition and the level of sperm competition are both determined by female promiscuity, which leads to an assumed covariation between these two processes. By modeling precopulatory costs and sperm competition independently, our theoretical framework allows us to examine how male allocation should respond independently to variation in sperm competition and energetic trade-offs in mating systems that have been overlooked in the past.

  16. Evaluation of the seismic-window theory for earthquake prediction

    SciTech Connect

    McNutt, M.; Heaton, T.H.

    1981-01-01

    The intent of this study was to determine whether earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area respond to a fortnightly fluctuation in tidal amplitude. A correlation between seismic events and any tidal period would contribute to the understanding of the earthquake process and the stress regime within which faulting occurs. Correlations between the longer tidal periods and seismicity might provide a useful tool for earthquake prediction. The US Geological Survey (USGS) performed a computer evaluation of this prediction method. This article reports the results of the USGS study.

  17. Dynamically Allocated Hub in Task-Evoked Network Predicts the Vulnerable Prefrontal Locus for Contextual Memory Retrieval in Macaques

    PubMed Central

    Osada, Takahiro; Jimura, Koji; Setsuie, Rieko; Miyashita, Yasushi

    2015-01-01

    Neuroimaging and neurophysiology have revealed that multiple areas in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) are activated in a specific memory task, but severity of impairment after PFC lesions is largely different depending on which activated area is damaged. The critical relationship between lesion sites and impairments has not yet been given a clear mechanistic explanation. Although recent works proposed that a whole-brain network contains hubs that play integrative roles in cortical information processing, this framework relying on an anatomy-based structural network cannot account for the vulnerable locus for a specific task, lesioning of which would bring impairment. Here, we hypothesized that (i) activated PFC areas dynamically form an ordered network centered at a task-specific “functional hub” and (ii) the lesion-effective site corresponds to the “functional hub,” but not to a task-invariant “structural hub.” To test these hypotheses, we conducted functional magnetic resonance imaging experiments in macaques performing a temporal contextual memory task. We found that the activated areas formed a hierarchical hub-centric network based on task-evoked directed connectivity, differently from the anatomical network reflecting axonal projection patterns. Using a novel simulated-lesion method based on support vector machine, we estimated severity of impairment after lesioning of each area, which accorded well with a known dissociation in contextual memory impairment in macaques (impairment after lesioning in area 9/46d, but not in area 8Ad). The predicted severity of impairment was proportional to the network “hubness” of the virtually lesioned area in the task-evoked directed connectivity network, rather than in the anatomical network known from tracer studies. Our results suggest that PFC areas dynamically and cooperatively shape a functional hub-centric network to reallocate the lesion-effective site depending on the cognitive processes, apart from

  18. Predictions of nucleation theory applied to Ehrenfest thermodynamic transitions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barker, R. E., Jr.; Campbell, K. W.

    1984-01-01

    A modified nucleation theory is used to determine a critical nucleus size and a critical activation-energy barrier for second-order Ehrenfest thermodynamic transitions as functions of the degree of undercooling, the interfacial energy, the heat-capacity difference, the specific volume of the transformed phase, and the equilibrium transition temperature. The customary approximations of nucleation theory are avoided by expanding the Gibbs free energy in a Maclaurin series and applying analytical thermodynamic expressions to evaluate the expansion coefficients. Nonlinear correction terms for first-order-transition calculations are derived, and numerical results are presented graphically for water and polystyrene as examples of first-order and quasi-second-order transitions, respectively.

  19. The Acoustic Analogy and Alternative Theories for Jet Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Philip J.; Farassat, F.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes several methods for the prediction of jet noise. All but one of the noise prediction schemes are based on Lighthill's or Lilley's acoustic analogy while the other is the jet noise generation model recently proposed by Tam and Auriault. In all the approaches some assumptions must be made concerning the statistical properties of the turbulent sources. In each case the characteristic scales of the turbulence are obtained from a solution of the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes equation using a k - epsilon turbulence model. It is shown that, for the same level of empiricism, Tam and Auriault's model yields better agreement with experimental noise measurements than the acoustic analogy. It is then shown that this result is not because of some fundamental flaw in the acoustic analogy approach: but, is associated with the assumptions made in the approximation of the turbulent source statistics. If consistent assumptions are made, both the acoustic analogy and Tam and Auriault's model yield identical noise predictions. The paper concludes with a proposal for an acoustic analogy that provides a clearer identification of the equivalent source mechanisms and a discussion of noise prediction issues that remain to be resolved.

  20. The Acoustic Analogy and Alternative Theories for Jet Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Philip J.; Farassat, F.; Morris, Philip J.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes several methods for the prediction of jet noise. All but one of the noise prediction schemes are based on Lighthill's or Lilley's acoustic analogy while the other is the jet noise generation model recently proposed by Tam and Auriault. In all the approaches some assumptions must be made concerning the statistical properties of the turbulent sources. In each case the characteristic scales of the turbulence are obtained from a solution of the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes equation using a k-epsilon turbulence model. It is shown that, for the same level of empiricism, Tam and Auriault's model yields better agreement with experimental noise measurements than the acoustic analogy. It is then shown that this result is not because of some fundamental flaw in the acoustic analogy approach: but, is associated with the assumptions made in the approximation of the turbulent source statistics. If consistent assumptions are made, both the acoustic analogy and Tam and Auriault's model yield identical noise predictions. The paper concludes with a proposal for an acoustic analogy that provides a clearer identification of the equivalent source mechanisms and a discussion of noise prediction issues that remain to be resolved.

  1. Acoustic Analogy and Alternative Theories for Jet Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Philip J.; Farassat, F.

    2002-01-01

    Several methods for the prediction of jet noise are described. All but one of the noise prediction schemes are based on Lighthill's or Lilley's acoustic analogy, whereas the other is the jet noise generation model recently proposed by Tam and Auriault. In all of the approaches, some assumptions must be made concerning the statistical properties of the turbulent sources. In each case the characteristic scales of the turbulence are obtained from a solution of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equation using a kappa-sigma turbulence model. It is shown that, for the same level of empiricism, Tam and Auriault's model yields better agreement with experimental noise measurements than the acoustic analogy. It is then shown that this result is not because of some fundamental flaw in the acoustic analogy approach, but instead is associated with the assumptions made in the approximation of the turbulent source statistics. If consistent assumptions are made, both the acoustic analogy and Tam and Auriault's model yield identical noise predictions. In conclusion, a proposal is presented for an acoustic analogy that provides a clearer identification of the equivalent source mechanisms, as is a discussion of noise prediction issues that remain to be resolved.

  2. Executive functioning predicts reading, mathematics, and theory of mind during the elementary years.

    PubMed

    Cantin, Rachelle H; Gnaedinger, Emily K; Gallaway, Kristin C; Hesson-McInnis, Matthew S; Hund, Alycia M

    2016-06-01

    The goal of this study was to specify how executive functioning components predict reading, mathematics, and theory of mind performance during the elementary years. A sample of 93 7- to 10-year-old children completed measures of working memory, inhibition, flexibility, reading, mathematics, and theory of mind. Path analysis revealed that all three executive functioning components (working memory, inhibition, and flexibility) mediated age differences in reading comprehension, whereas age predicted mathematics and theory of mind directly. In addition, reading mediated the influence of executive functioning components on mathematics and theory of mind, except that flexibility also predicted mathematics directly. These findings provide important details about the development of executive functioning, reading, mathematics, and theory of mind during the elementary years.

  3. Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewel theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

    1989-01-01

    A method to estimate the frequency of transmission overhauls is presented. This method is based on the two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life. A second method is presented to estimate the number of replacement components needed to support the transmission overhaul pattern. The second method is based on renewal theory. Confidence statistics are applied with both methods to improve the statistical estimate of sample behavior. A transmission example is also presented to illustrate the use of the methods. Transmission overhaul frequency and component replacement calculations are included in the example.

  4. Uncertainty in oil production predicted by percolation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, P. R.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Dokholyan, N. V.; Havlin, S.; Lopez, E.; Paul, G.; Stanley, H. E.

    2002-04-01

    In this paper, we apply scaling laws from percolation theory to the problem of estimating the time for a fluid injected into an oilfield to breakthrough into a production well. The main contribution is to show that when these previously published results are used on realistic data they are in good agreement with results calculated in a more conventional way, but they can be obtained significantly and more quickly. As a result, they may be used in practical engineering circumstances and aid decision-making for real field problems.

  5. Using percolation theory to predict oil field performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, P. R.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Dokholyan, N. V.; Havlin, S.; Lopez, E.; Paul, G.; Stanley, H. E.

    2002-11-01

    In this paper, we apply scaling laws from percolation theory to the problem of estimating the time for a fluid injected into an oilfield to breakthrough into a production well. The main contribution is to show that when these previously published results are used on realistic data they are in good agreement with results calculated in a more conventional way but they can be obtained significantly more quickly. As a result they may be used in practical engineering circumstances and aid decision making for real field problems.

  6. Field theory and diffusion creep predictions in polycrystalline aggregates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villani, A.; Busso, E. P.; Forest, S.

    2015-07-01

    In polycrystals, stress-driven vacancy diffusion at high homologous temperatures leads to inelastic deformation. In this work, a novel continuum mechanics framework is proposed to describe the strain fields resulting from such a diffusion-driven process in a polycrystalline aggregate where grains and grain boundaries are explicitly considered. The choice of an anisotropic eigenstrain in the grain boundary region provides the driving force for the diffusive creep processes. The corresponding inelastic strain rate is shown to be related to the gradient of the vacancy flux. Dislocation driven deformation is then introduced as an additional mechanism, through standard crystal plasticity constitutive equations. The fully coupled diffusion-mechanical model is implemented into the finite element method and then used to describe the biaxial creep behaviour of FCC polycrystalline aggregates. The corresponding results revealed for the first time that such a coupled diffusion-stress approach, involving the gradient of the vacancy flux, can accurately predict the well-known macroscopic strain rate dependency on stress and grain size in the diffusion creep regime. They also predict strongly heterogeneous viscoplastic strain fields, especially close to grain boundaries triple junctions. Finally, a smooth transition from Herring and Coble to dislocation creep behaviour is predicted and compared to experimental results for copper.

  7. Introducing New Priority Setting and Resource Allocation Processes in a Canadian Healthcare Organization: A Case Study Analysis Informed by Multiple Streams Theory

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Neale; Mitton, Craig; Dowling, Laura; Hiltz, Mary-Ann; Campbell, Matthew; Gujar, Shashi Ashok

    2016-01-01

    Background: In this article, we analyze one case instance of how proposals for change to the priority setting and resource allocation (PSRA) processes at a Canadian healthcare institution reached the decision agenda of the organization’s senior leadership. We adopt key concepts from an established policy studies framework – Kingdon’s multiple streams theory – to inform our analysis. Methods: Twenty-six individual interviews were conducted at the IWK Health Centre in Halifax, NS, Canada. Participants were asked to reflect upon the reasons leading up to the implementation of a formal priority setting process – Program Budgeting and Marginal Analysis (PBMA) – in the 2012/2013 fiscal year. Responses were analyzed qualitatively using Kingdon’s model as a template. Results: The introduction of PBMA can be understood as the opening of a policy window. A problem stream – defined as lack of broad engagement and information sharing across service lines in past practice – converged with a known policy solution, PBMA, which addressed the identified problems and was perceived as easy to use and with an evidence-base from past applications across Canada and elsewhere. Conditions in the political realm allowed for this intervention to proceed, but also constrained its potential outcomes. Conclusion: Understanding in a theoretically-informed way how change occurs in healthcare management practices can provide useful lessons to researchers and decision-makers whose aim is to help health systems achieve the most effective use of available financial resources PMID:26673646

  8. Attachment Theory and Theory of Planned Behavior: An Integrative Model Predicting Underage Drinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lac, Andrew; Crano, William D.; Berger, Dale E.; Alvaro, Eusebio M.

    2013-01-01

    Research indicates that peer and maternal bonds play important but sometimes contrasting roles in the outcomes of children. Less is known about attachment bonds to these 2 reference groups in young adults. Using a sample of 351 participants (18 to 20 years of age), the research integrated two theoretical traditions: attachment theory and theory of…

  9. Phonology and Handedness in Primary School: Predictions of the Right Shift Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smythe, Pamela; Annett, Marian

    2006-01-01

    Background: The right shift (RS) theory of handedness suggests that poor phonology may occur in the general population as a risk associated with absence of an agent of left cerebral speech, the hypothesised RS + gene. The theory predicts that poor phonology is associated with reduced bias to right-handedness. Methods: A representative cohort of…

  10. Shear Strength Prediction By Modified Plasticity Theory For SFRC Beams

    SciTech Connect

    Colajanni, Piero; Recupero, Antonino; Spinella, Nino

    2008-07-08

    the plastic Crack Sliding Model (CSM) is extended for derivation of a physical model for the prediction of ultimate shear strength of SFRC beams, by assuming that the critical cracks is modeled by a yield lines. To this aim, the CSM is improved in order to take into account the strength increases due to the arch effect for deep beam. Then, the effectiveness factors for the concrete under biaxial stress are calibrated for fibrous concrete. The proposed model, able to provide the shear strength and the position of the critical cracks, is validate by a large set of test results collected in literature.

  11. Infant shy temperament predicts preschoolers Theory of Mind.

    PubMed

    Mink, Daniela; Henning, Anne; Aschersleben, Gisa

    2014-02-01

    The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the relation between infant temperament at 18 months and early Theory of Mind (ToM) abilities at 3 years of age. Temperament was assessed with the Early Childhood Behavior Questionnaire (ECBQ) and ToM by assessing children's understanding of divergent desires and beliefs, and of knowledge access. Our results are in line with a social-emotional reactivity perspective postulating more sophisticated ToM abilities for children with less reactive more observant temperament. Children with shy temperament at 18 months and at 3 years were better in reasoning about others' mental states at age 3. Language, siblings and parental education had no effect on ToM. Findings indicate that temperament is related to ToM earlier in development than previously found, and that this relation is thus not unique to false-belief understanding.

  12. The predictive power of optimality theory for phonological treatment*

    PubMed Central

    Dinnsen, Daniel A.; Gierut, Judith A.

    2009-01-01

    The phonology and clinically induced learning patterns of a female child with a phonological delay (age 4;11) were examined from the analytical perspective of Optimality Theory. The analysis revealed that a Consonant Harmony error pattern affected alveolar stops from two different sources—from underlying lexical representations and from representations derived by an interacting error pattern of Deaffrication. The implications of that analysis for the selection of treatment targets were explored in a treatment study. It was found that treatment aimed at the derived source of Consonant Harmony resulted in the suppression of both Consonant Harmony and Deaffrication. The explanation for these results was attributed to a fixed ranking among certain constraints. PMID:20098628

  13. Infant shy temperament predicts preschoolers Theory of Mind.

    PubMed

    Mink, Daniela; Henning, Anne; Aschersleben, Gisa

    2014-02-01

    The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the relation between infant temperament at 18 months and early Theory of Mind (ToM) abilities at 3 years of age. Temperament was assessed with the Early Childhood Behavior Questionnaire (ECBQ) and ToM by assessing children's understanding of divergent desires and beliefs, and of knowledge access. Our results are in line with a social-emotional reactivity perspective postulating more sophisticated ToM abilities for children with less reactive more observant temperament. Children with shy temperament at 18 months and at 3 years were better in reasoning about others' mental states at age 3. Language, siblings and parental education had no effect on ToM. Findings indicate that temperament is related to ToM earlier in development than previously found, and that this relation is thus not unique to false-belief understanding. PMID:24463039

  14. Routes to Reading and Spelling: Testing the Predictions of Dual-Route Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sheriston, Lee; Critten, Sarah; Jones, Emily

    2016-01-01

    Dual-route theory, which emphasizes the importance of lexical and nonlexical routes, makes specific predictions about the kinds of strategies that young students might adopt when attempting to correctly read and spell regular and irregular words. The current study tests these predictions by assessing strategy choice on regular, irregular, and…

  15. Using Social Cognitive Theory to Predict Physical Activity and Fitness in Underserved Middle School Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; McCaughtry, Nate; Flory, Sara; Murphy, Anne; Wisdom, Kimberlydawn

    2011-01-01

    Few researchers have used social cognitive theory and environment-based constructs to predict physical activity (PA) and fitness in underserved middle-school children. Hence, we evaluated social cognitive variables and perceptions of the school environment to predict PA and fitness in middle school children (N = 506, ages 10-14 years). Using…

  16. Predicting moral behavior in physical education classes: an application of the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Tsorbatzoudis, Haralambos; Emmanouilidou, Maria

    2005-06-01

    This study aimed to examine the potential of the Theory of Planned Behavior to predict moral behavior in primary school physical education classes. Primary school children (N=611) completed a questionnaire including the Theory of Planned Behavior variables. Also, 21 teachers filled in an adapted version of Horrocks' Prosocial Play Behavior Inventory which assesses five moral behavior facets. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that attitudes toward moral behavior and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of intention towards moral behavior (54%). Intention and perceived behavioral control predicted teacher-reported moral behavior (41%). The present results indicated that the theory provides a valuable framework for study of primary school children's moral behavior. PMID:16158692

  17. String-theory-based predictions for nonhydrodynamic collective modes in strongly interacting Fermi gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bantilan, H.; Brewer, J. T.; Ishii, T.; Lewis, W. E.; Romatschke, P.

    2016-09-01

    Very different strongly interacting quantum systems such as Fermi gases, quark-gluon plasmas formed in high-energy ion collisions, and black holes studied theoretically in string theory are known to exhibit quantitatively similar damping of hydrodynamic modes. It is not known if such similarities extend beyond the hydrodynamic limit. Do nonhydrodynamic collective modes in Fermi gases with strong interactions also match those from string theory calculations? In order to answer this question, we use calculations based on string theory to make predictions for modes outside the hydrodynamic regime in trapped Fermi gases. These predictions are amenable to direct testing with current state-of-the-art cold atom experiments.

  18. Nuclear Mass Predictions within the Skyrme HFB Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Samyn, M.; Goriely, S.; Pearson, J.M.

    2005-05-24

    To increase the reliability of predictions of highly neutron-rich nuclear masses we systematically analyze the sensitivity of Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) mass formulae to various physical inputs, such as a density dependence of the pairing interaction, a low effective mass, the particle-number projection, the symmetry energy, ... We typically use a 10-parameter Skyrme force and a 4-parameter {delta}-function pairing force. The 14 degrees of freedom are adjusted to the masses of all measured nuclei with N,Z {>=} 8 given in the 2001 and 2003 Audi et al. compilations. The masses of light and proton-rich nuclei are corrected by a 4-parameter phenomenological Wigner term. With more than ten such parameter sets complete mass tables are constructed, going from one drip line to the other, up to Z = 120.

  19. Nuclear Mass Predictions within the Skyrme HFB Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samyn, M.; Goriely, S.; Pearson, J. M.

    2005-05-01

    To increase the reliability of predictions of highly neutron-rich nuclear masses we systematically analyze the sensitivity of Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) mass formulae to various physical inputs, such as a density dependence of the pairing interaction, a low effective mass, the particle-number projection, the symmetry energy, … We typically use a 10-parameter Skyrme force and a 4-parameter δ-function pairing force. The 14 degrees of freedom are adjusted to the masses of all measured nuclei with N,Z ⩾ 8 given in the 2001 and 2003 Audi et al. compilations. The masses of light and proton-rich nuclei are corrected by a 4-parameter phenomenological Wigner term. With more than ten such parameter sets complete mass tables are constructed, going from one drip line to the other, up to Z = 120.

  20. Predicting Infrared Spectra of Nerve Agents Using Density Functional Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.-P.; Wang, H.-T.; Zheng, W.-P.; Sun, C.; Bai, Y.; Guo, X.-D.; Sun, H.

    2016-09-01

    Vibration frequencies of four nerve agents and two simulators are calculated using B3LYP coupled with ten basis sets. To evaluate the accuracy of calculated spectra, root mean square error (RMSE) and weighted cross-correlation average (WCCA) are considered. The evaluation shows that B3LYP/6-311+g(d,p) performs best in predicting infrared spectra, and polarization functions are found to be more important than diffusion functions in spectra simulation. Moreover, B3LYP calculation underestimates frequencies related to the P atom. The WCCA metric derives 1.008 as a unique scaling factor for calculated frequencies. The results indicate that the WCCA metric can identify six agents based on calculated spectra.

  1. Volcanic processes and landforms on Venus - Theory, predictions, and observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Head, James W., III; Wilson, Lionel

    1986-01-01

    The ascent and eruption of magma on Venus in the current Venusian environment is modeled, taking into account the influence of extreme surface temperatures and pressures. Comparison of present predictions with observations obtained from Pioneer Venus, Arecibo, and Venera data support a picture of regional pyroclastic deposits being very rare, magma contents not usually exceeding about 4 wt pct, and the atmospheric pressure having been about the same as the present value over a time period equivalent to the average age of the northern areas of the northern hemisphere. Data suggest that numerous eruptions had effusion rates exceeding common terrestrial rates, and that shield volcanoes are often wide, but are low relative to those on Mars and earth. Implications of the proposed Venusian reduction of the driving density contrast include dike intrusion being very common, and large minimum magma volumes being required to ensure surface eruptions.

  2. Chimpanzee choice rates in competitive games match equilibrium game theory predictions.

    PubMed

    Martin, Christopher Flynn; Bhui, Rahul; Bossaerts, Peter; Matsuzawa, Tetsuro; Camerer, Colin

    2014-06-05

    The capacity for strategic thinking about the payoff-relevant actions of conspecifics is not well understood across species. We use game theory to make predictions about choices and temporal dynamics in three abstract competitive situations with chimpanzee participants. Frequencies of chimpanzee choices are extremely close to equilibrium (accurate-guessing) predictions, and shift as payoffs change, just as equilibrium theory predicts. The chimpanzee choices are also closer to the equilibrium prediction, and more responsive to past history and payoff changes, than two samples of human choices from experiments in which humans were also initially uninformed about opponent payoffs and could not communicate verbally. The results are consistent with a tentative interpretation of game theory as explaining evolved behavior, with the additional hypothesis that chimpanzees may retain or practice a specialized capacity to adjust strategy choice during competition to perform at least as well as, or better than, humans have.

  3. The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

    PubMed

    Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

    2009-12-01

    Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health. PMID:19833400

  4. The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

    PubMed

    Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

    2009-12-01

    Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

  5. Sub-Optimal Allocation of Time in Sequential Movements

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Shih-Wei; Dal Martello, Maria F.; Maloney, Laurence T.

    2009-01-01

    The allocation of limited resources such as time or energy is a core problem that organisms face when planning complex actions. Most previous research concerning planning of movement has focused on the planning of single, isolated movements. Here we investigated the allocation of time in a pointing task where human subjects attempted to touch two targets in a specified order to earn monetary rewards. Subjects were required to complete both movements within a limited time but could freely allocate the available time between the movements. The time constraint presents an allocation problem to the subjects: the more time spent on one movement, the less time is available for the other. In different conditions we assigned different rewards to the two tokens. How the subject allocated time between movements affected their expected gain on each trial. We also varied the angle between the first and second movements and the length of the second movement. Based on our results, we developed and tested a model of speed-accuracy tradeoff for sequential movements. Using this model we could predict the time allocation that would maximize the expected gain of each subject in each experimental condition. We compared human performance with predicted optimal performance. We found that all subjects allocated time sub-optimally, spending more time than they should on the first movement even when the reward of the second target was five times larger than the first. We conclude that the movement planning system fails to maximize expected reward in planning sequences of as few as two movements and discuss possible interpretations drawn from economic theory. PMID:20011047

  6. Saturation Dependence of Transport in Porous Media Predicted by Percolation and Effective Medium Theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghanbarian, Behzad; Hunt, Allen G.; Skinner, Thomas E.; Ewing, Robert P.

    2015-02-01

    Accurate prediction of the saturation dependence of different modes of transport in porous media, such as those due to conductivity, air permeability, and diffusion, is of broad interest in engineering and natural resources management. Most current predictions use a "bundle of capillary tubes" concept, which, despite its widespread use, is a severely distorted idealization of natural porous media. In contrast, percolation theory provides a reliable and powerful means to model interconnectivity of disordered networks and porous materials. In this study, we invoke scaling concepts from percolation theory and effective medium theory to predict the saturation dependence of modes of transport — hydraulic and electrical conductivity, air permeability, and gas diffusion — in two disturbed soils. Universal scaling from percolation theory predicts the saturation dependence of air permeability and gas diffusion accurately, even when the percolation threshold for airflow is estimated from the porosity. We also find that the non-universal scaling obtained from the critical path analysis (CPA) of percolation theory can make excellent predictions of hydraulic and electrical conductivity under partially saturated conditions.

  7. [Organ allocation. Ethical issues].

    PubMed

    Cattorini, P

    2010-01-01

    The criteria for allocating organs are one of the most debated ethical issue in the transplantation programs. The article examines some rules and principles followed by "Nord Italia Transplant program", summarized in its Principles' Charter and explained in a recent interdisciplinary book. General theories of justice and their application to individual clinical cases are commented and evaluated, in order to foster a public, democratic, transparent debate among professionals and citizens, scientific associations and customers' organizations. Some specific moral dilemmas are focused regarding the concepts of proportionate treatment, unselfish donation by living persons, promotion of local institutions efficiency. PMID:20677677

  8. Use of the theory of reasoned action to predict drug and alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Laflin, M T; Moore-Hirschl, S; Weis, D L; Hayes, B E

    1994-05-01

    The present study examines the role of self-esteem (SE) in the prediction of drug and alcohol use. Consistent with research on the theory of reasoned action, we suggest that alcohol and drug attitudes and subjective norms are more useful in the prediction of self-reported drug and alcohol consumption than SE. In the present study, measures of SE, drug attitudes, subjective norms, and drug use behaviors were collected from 2,074 high school and college students. Results indicate that drug attitudes and subjective norms do predict drug and alcohol use, but that SE does not add significantly to the prediction of the drug and alcohol behaviors.

  9. Predicting Facebook users' online privacy protection: risk, trust, norm focus theory, and the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Saeri, Alexander K; Ogilvie, Claudette; La Macchia, Stephen T; Smith, Joanne R; Louis, Winnifred R

    2014-01-01

    The present research adopts an extended theory of the planned behavior model that included descriptive norms, risk, and trust to investigate online privacy protection in Facebook users. Facebook users (N = 119) completed a questionnaire assessing their attitude, subjective injunctive norm, subjective descriptive norm, perceived behavioral control, implicit perceived risk, trust of other Facebook users, and intentions toward protecting their privacy online. Behavior was measured indirectly 2 weeks after the study. The data show partial support for the theory of planned behavior and strong support for the independence of subjective injunctive and descriptive norms. Risk also uniquely predicted intentions over and above the theory of planned behavior, but there were no unique effects of trust on intentions, nor of risk or trust on behavior. Implications are discussed.

  10. Predicting Facebook users' online privacy protection: risk, trust, norm focus theory, and the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Saeri, Alexander K; Ogilvie, Claudette; La Macchia, Stephen T; Smith, Joanne R; Louis, Winnifred R

    2014-01-01

    The present research adopts an extended theory of the planned behavior model that included descriptive norms, risk, and trust to investigate online privacy protection in Facebook users. Facebook users (N = 119) completed a questionnaire assessing their attitude, subjective injunctive norm, subjective descriptive norm, perceived behavioral control, implicit perceived risk, trust of other Facebook users, and intentions toward protecting their privacy online. Behavior was measured indirectly 2 weeks after the study. The data show partial support for the theory of planned behavior and strong support for the independence of subjective injunctive and descriptive norms. Risk also uniquely predicted intentions over and above the theory of planned behavior, but there were no unique effects of trust on intentions, nor of risk or trust on behavior. Implications are discussed. PMID:25154118

  11. Sperm allocation strategies and female resistance: a unifying perspective.

    PubMed

    Fromhage, Lutz; McNamara, John M; Houston, Alasdair I

    2008-07-01

    The classical viewpoint in sperm competition theory, which holds that males evolve sperm allocation strategies in response to a given degree of sperm competition, has recently been challenged by an alternative viewpoint, which holds that the degree of sperm competition is itself a consequence of these same strategies. Here, we present a game theory model that unites these alternative views as the endpoints of a continuum. Based on the recognition that female control over mating may limit the extent to which male strategies affect the degree of sperm competition, we investigate sperm allocation strategies in a setting where females can resist excessive matings more or less successfully. We discuss how conflicting predictions made by previous theory relate to implicit assumptions about female resistance behavior. Moreover, we show that female resistance, while being highly relevant to the predicted relationship between ejaculate size and the degree of sperm competition, has little effect on the predicted positive correlation between relative testis size and the degree of sperm competition. This result strengthens one of the central predictions of sperm competition theory and is in accordance with empirical findings from a wide range of taxa.

  12. Implicit theories of intelligence predict achievement across an adolescent transition: a longitudinal study and an intervention.

    PubMed

    Blackwell, Lisa S; Trzesniewski, Kali H; Dweck, Carol Sorich

    2007-01-01

    Two studies explored the role of implicit theories of intelligence in adolescents' mathematics achievement. In Study 1 with 373 7th graders, the belief that intelligence is malleable (incremental theory) predicted an upward trajectory in grades over the two years of junior high school, while a belief that intelligence is fixed (entity theory) predicted a flat trajectory. A mediational model including learning goals, positive beliefs about effort, and causal attributions and strategies was tested. In Study 2, an intervention teaching an incremental theory to 7th graders (N=48) promoted positive change in classroom motivation, compared with a control group (N=43). Simultaneously, students in the control group displayed a continuing downward trajectory in grades, while this decline was reversed for students in the experimental group. PMID:17328703

  13. Optimal digestion theory does not predict the effect of pathogens on intestinal plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Venesky, Matthew D.; Hanlon, Shane M.; Lynch, Kyle; Parris, Matthew J.; Rohr, Jason R.

    2013-01-01

    One prediction of optimal digestion theory is that organisms will increase the relative length of their digestive tracts when food resources become limited. We used theory of optimal digestion to test whether tadpoles can adjust the relative length of their intestines when challenged with the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). The degree of tadpole mouthpart damage, a symptom of Bd infections that reduces food consumption, was associated positively with the length of tadpole intestines relative to their body size, consistent with optimal digestion theory. After controlling for mouthpart damage, tadpoles exposed to Bd had shorter intestines relative to their body size, opposite to the predictions of optimal digestion theory. One explanation of why tadpoles with higher Bd loads have shorter relative intestinal lengths is that they divert energy from maintaining intestinal and overall growth towards anti-parasite defences. PMID:23445950

  14. Negative correlation between male allocation and rate of self-fertilization in a hermaphroditic animal

    PubMed Central

    Johnston, Mark O.; Das, Bijon; Hoeh, Walter R.

    1998-01-01

    Sex-allocation theory predicts that the evolution of increased rates of self-fertilization should be accompanied by decreased allocation to male reproduction (sperm production and broadcast). This prediction has found support in plants but has not previously been tested in animals, which, in contrast to biotically pollinated plants, are free of complications associated with incorporating the costs of attractive structures such as petals. Here we report rates of self-fertilization as well as proportional allocation to male reproductive tissues within populations of the simultaneous hermaphrodite Utterbackia imbecillis, a freshwater mussel. Individuals from populations with higher selfing rates devoted a lower proportion of reproductive tissue to sperm production (correlation = −0.99), in support of theory. PMID:9435241

  15. Utility of the theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behavior for predicting Chinese adolescent smoking.

    PubMed

    Guo, Qian; Johnson, C Anderson; Unger, Jennifer B; Lee, Liming; Xie, Bin; Chou, Chih-Ping; Palmer, Paula H; Sun, Ping; Gallaher, Peggy; Pentz, MaryAnn

    2007-05-01

    One third of smokers worldwide live in China. Identifying predictors of smoking is important for prevention program development. This study explored whether the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) predict adolescent smoking in China. Data were obtained from 14,434 middle and high school students (48.6% boys, 51.4% girls) in seven geographically varied cities in China. TRA and TPB were tested by multilevel mediation modeling, and compared by multilevel analyses and likelihood ratio tests. Perceived behavioral control was tested as a main effect in TPB and a moderation effect in TRA. The mediation effects of smoking intention were supported in both models (p<0.001). TPB accounted for significantly more variance than TRA (p<0.001). Perceived behavioral control significantly interacted with attitudes and social norms in TRA (p<0.001). Therefore, TRA and TPB are applicable to China to predict adolescent smoking. TPB is superior to TRA for the prediction and TRA can better predict smoking among students with lower than higher perceived behavioral control.

  16. Playing off the curve - testing quantitative predictions of skill acquisition theories in development of chess performance

    PubMed Central

    Gaschler, Robert; Progscha, Johanna; Smallbone, Kieran; Ram, Nilam; Bilalić, Merim

    2014-01-01

    Learning curves have been proposed as an adequate description of learning processes, no matter whether the processes manifest within minutes or across years. Different mechanisms underlying skill acquisition can lead to differences in the shape of learning curves. In the current study, we analyze the tournament performance data of 1383 chess players who begin competing at young age and play tournaments for at least 10 years. We analyze the performance development with the goal to test the adequacy of learning curves, and the skill acquisition theories they are based on, for describing and predicting expertise acquisition. On the one hand, we show that the skill acquisition theories implying a negative exponential learning curve do a better job in both describing early performance gains and predicting later trajectories of chess performance than those theories implying a power function learning curve. On the other hand, the learning curves of a large proportion of players show systematic qualitative deviations from the predictions of either type of skill acquisition theory. While skill acquisition theories predict larger performance gains in early years and smaller gains in later years, a substantial number of players begin to show substantial improvements with a delay of several years (and no improvement in the first years), deviations not fully accounted for by quantity of practice. The current work adds to the debate on how learning processes on a small time scale combine to large-scale changes. PMID:25202292

  17. Playing off the curve - testing quantitative predictions of skill acquisition theories in development of chess performance.

    PubMed

    Gaschler, Robert; Progscha, Johanna; Smallbone, Kieran; Ram, Nilam; Bilalić, Merim

    2014-01-01

    Learning curves have been proposed as an adequate description of learning processes, no matter whether the processes manifest within minutes or across years. Different mechanisms underlying skill acquisition can lead to differences in the shape of learning curves. In the current study, we analyze the tournament performance data of 1383 chess players who begin competing at young age and play tournaments for at least 10 years. We analyze the performance development with the goal to test the adequacy of learning curves, and the skill acquisition theories they are based on, for describing and predicting expertise acquisition. On the one hand, we show that the skill acquisition theories implying a negative exponential learning curve do a better job in both describing early performance gains and predicting later trajectories of chess performance than those theories implying a power function learning curve. On the other hand, the learning curves of a large proportion of players show systematic qualitative deviations from the predictions of either type of skill acquisition theory. While skill acquisition theories predict larger performance gains in early years and smaller gains in later years, a substantial number of players begin to show substantial improvements with a delay of several years (and no improvement in the first years), deviations not fully accounted for by quantity of practice. The current work adds to the debate on how learning processes on a small time scale combine to large-scale changes.

  18. Accuracy of critical-temperature sensitivity coefficients predicted by multilayered composite plate theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K.; Burton, Scott

    1992-01-01

    An assessment is made of the accuracy of the critical-temperature sensitivity coefficients of multilayered plates predicted by different modeling approaches, based on two-dimensional shear-deformation theories. The sensitivity coefficients considered measure the sensitivity of the critical temperatures to variations in different lamination and material parameters of the plate. The standard of comparison is taken to be the sensitivity coefficients obtained by the three-dimensional theory of thermoelasticity. Numerical studies are presented showing the effects of variation in the geometric and lamination parameters of the plate on the accuracy of both the sensitivity coefficients and the critical temperatures predicted by the different modeling approaches.

  19. Use of fracture mechanics theory in lifetime predictions for alumina and bioglass-coated alumina.

    PubMed

    Ritter, J E; Greenspan, D C; Palmer, R A; Hench, L L

    1979-03-01

    The fatigue behavior of alumina and bioglass-coated alumina was determined in air and biological test environments by the dynamic fatigue test technique in which strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The good correlation found between the test data and fracture mechanics theory indicates that fatigue failure is controlled by the slow crack growth of preexisting flaws and that fracture mechanics theory can be used in making failure predictions for alumina and bioglass-coated alumina in biological environments. Thus, it is believed that lifetime predictions can be made for ceramic implants on the basis of short-term test data utilizing fracture mechanics principles.

  20. A predictive theory of intentions to exit street-level prostitution.

    PubMed

    Cimino, Andrea N

    2012-10-01

    Street-level prostitution is notoriously difficult to escape and rarely do women exit prostitution on their first attempt or without experiencing serious negative consequences to their physical or mental health. Unfortunately, few theories exist that explain the exiting process and those that do exist are difficult to test quantitatively. This article applies the integrative model of behavioral prediction to examine intentions to exit prostitution through attitudes, norms, and self-efficacy beliefs that underlie a woman's intention to exit prostitution. Constructs unique prostitution--agency and societal context--enhance the model. This theory may explain and predict an exit from street-level prostitution.

  1. Autonomy and control: augmenting the validity of the theory of planned behaviour in predicting exercise.

    PubMed

    Brickell, Tracey A; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L D; Pretty, Grace M

    2006-01-01

    This study examined the utility of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) along with additional constructs in predicting exercise, and explored the motivational antecedents of exercise intentions. Participants included 162 Canadian University College students (61% females). Measures of TPB, autonomous and controlling intention, perceived autonomy support and core autonomous intention were completed during phase 1 of data collection. Two and three weeks later behaviour was assessed. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that: (a) attitude and perceived behavioural control significantly predicted TPB intention and core autonomous intention; (b) subjective norm predicted controlling intention; and (c) perceived autonomy support predicted autonomous and core autonomous intention. TPB intention significantly predicted behaviour. TPB is a fairly useful model for predicting behaviour and important information can be gained when other measures of intention are explored.

  2. Prediction of attendance at fitness center: a comparison between the theory of planned behavior, the social cognitive theory, and the physical activity maintenance theory.

    PubMed

    Jekauc, Darko; Völkle, Manuel; Wagner, Matthias O; Mess, Filip; Reiner, Miriam; Renner, Britta

    2015-01-01

    In the processes of physical activity (PA) maintenance specific predictors are effective, which differ from other stages of PA development. Recently, Physical Activity Maintenance Theory (PAMT) was specifically developed for prediction of PA maintenance. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictability of the future behavior by the PAMT and compare it with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Social Cognitive Theory (SCT). Participation rate in a fitness center was observed for 101 college students (53 female) aged between 19 and 32 years (M = 23.6; SD = 2.9) over 20 weeks using a magnetic card. In order to predict the pattern of participation TPB, SCT and PAMT were used. A latent class zero-inflated Poisson growth curve analysis identified two participation patterns: regular attenders and intermittent exercisers. SCT showed the highest predictive power followed by PAMT and TPB. Impeding aspects as life stress and barriers were the strongest predictors suggesting that overcoming barriers might be an important aspect for working out on a regular basis. Self-efficacy, perceived behavioral control, and social support could also significantly differentiate between the participation patterns.

  3. Prediction of attendance at fitness center: a comparison between the theory of planned behavior, the social cognitive theory, and the physical activity maintenance theory

    PubMed Central

    Jekauc, Darko; Völkle, Manuel; Wagner, Matthias O.; Mess, Filip; Reiner, Miriam; Renner, Britta

    2015-01-01

    In the processes of physical activity (PA) maintenance specific predictors are effective, which differ from other stages of PA development. Recently, Physical Activity Maintenance Theory (PAMT) was specifically developed for prediction of PA maintenance. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictability of the future behavior by the PAMT and compare it with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Social Cognitive Theory (SCT). Participation rate in a fitness center was observed for 101 college students (53 female) aged between 19 and 32 years (M = 23.6; SD = 2.9) over 20 weeks using a magnetic card. In order to predict the pattern of participation TPB, SCT and PAMT were used. A latent class zero-inflated Poisson growth curve analysis identified two participation patterns: regular attenders and intermittent exercisers. SCT showed the highest predictive power followed by PAMT and TPB. Impeding aspects as life stress and barriers were the strongest predictors suggesting that overcoming barriers might be an important aspect for working out on a regular basis. Self-efficacy, perceived behavioral control, and social support could also significantly differentiate between the participation patterns. PMID:25717313

  4. Divergence in plant and microbial allocation strategies explains continental patterns in microbial allocation and biogeochemical fluxes.

    PubMed

    Averill, Colin

    2014-10-01

    Allocation trade-offs shape ecological and biogeochemical phenomena at local to global scale. Plant allocation strategies drive major changes in ecosystem carbon cycling. Microbial allocation to enzymes that decompose carbon vs. organic nutrients may similarly affect ecosystem carbon cycling. Current solutions to this allocation problem prioritise stoichiometric tradeoffs implemented in plant ecology. These solutions may not maximise microbial growth and fitness under all conditions, because organic nutrients are also a significant carbon resource for microbes. I created multiple allocation frameworks and simulated microbial growth using a microbial explicit biogeochemical model. I demonstrate that prioritising stoichiometric trade-offs does not optimise microbial allocation, while exploiting organic nutrients as carbon resources does. Analysis of continental-scale enzyme data supports the allocation patterns predicted by this framework, and modelling suggests large deviations in soil C loss based on which strategy is implemented. Therefore, understanding microbial allocation strategies will likely improve our understanding of carbon cycling and climate.

  5. Predicting intentions versus predicting behaviors: domestic violence prevention from a theory of reasoned action perspective.

    PubMed

    Nabi, Robin L; Southwell, Brian; Hornik, Robert

    2002-01-01

    A central assumption of many models of human behavior is that intention to perform a behavior is highly predictive of actual behavior. This article presents evidence that belies this notion. Based on a survey of 1,250 Philadelphia adults, a clear and consistent pattern emerged suggesting that beliefs related to domestic violence correlate with intentions to act with respect to domestic violence but rarely correlate with reported actions (e.g., talking to the abused woman). Numerous methodological and substantive explanations for this finding are offered with emphasis placed on the complexity of the context in which an action to prevent a domestic violence incident occurs. We conclude by arguing that despite the small, insignificant relationships between beliefs and behaviors found, worthwhile aggregate effects on behavior might still exist, thus reaffirming the role of communication campaign efforts.

  6. Exploring the Combination of Dempster-Shafer Theory and Neural Network for Predicting Trust and Distrust

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xin; Wang, Ying; Sun, Hongbin

    2016-01-01

    In social media, trust and distrust among users are important factors in helping users make decisions, dissect information, and receive recommendations. However, the sparsity and imbalance of social relations bring great difficulties and challenges in predicting trust and distrust. Meanwhile, there are numerous inducing factors to determine trust and distrust relations. The relationship among inducing factors may be dependency, independence, and conflicting. Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network are effective and efficient strategies to deal with these difficulties and challenges. In this paper, we study trust and distrust prediction based on the combination of Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network. We firstly analyze the inducing factors about trust and distrust, namely, homophily, status theory, and emotion tendency. Then, we quantify inducing factors of trust and distrust, take these features as evidences, and construct evidence prototype as input nodes of multilayer neural network. Finally, we propose a framework of predicting trust and distrust which uses multilayer neural network to model the implementing process of Dempster-Shafer theory in different hidden layers, aiming to overcome the disadvantage of Dempster-Shafer theory without optimization method. Experimental results on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. PMID:27034651

  7. Exploring the Combination of Dempster-Shafer Theory and Neural Network for Predicting Trust and Distrust.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xin; Wang, Ying; Sun, Hongbin

    2016-01-01

    In social media, trust and distrust among users are important factors in helping users make decisions, dissect information, and receive recommendations. However, the sparsity and imbalance of social relations bring great difficulties and challenges in predicting trust and distrust. Meanwhile, there are numerous inducing factors to determine trust and distrust relations. The relationship among inducing factors may be dependency, independence, and conflicting. Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network are effective and efficient strategies to deal with these difficulties and challenges. In this paper, we study trust and distrust prediction based on the combination of Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network. We firstly analyze the inducing factors about trust and distrust, namely, homophily, status theory, and emotion tendency. Then, we quantify inducing factors of trust and distrust, take these features as evidences, and construct evidence prototype as input nodes of multilayer neural network. Finally, we propose a framework of predicting trust and distrust which uses multilayer neural network to model the implementing process of Dempster-Shafer theory in different hidden layers, aiming to overcome the disadvantage of Dempster-Shafer theory without optimization method. Experimental results on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

  8. The Prediction of College Student Academic Performance and Retention: Application of Expectancy and Goal Setting Theories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Friedman, Barry A.; Mandel, Rhonda G.

    2010-01-01

    Student retention and performance in higher education are important issues for educators, students, and the nation facing critical professional labor shortages. Expectancy and goal setting theories were used to predict academic performance and college student retention. Students' academic expectancy motivation at the start of the college…

  9. Understanding the Communicative Implications of Initial Impressions: A Longitudinal Test of Predicted Outcome Value Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Horan, Sean M.; Houser, Marian L.

    2012-01-01

    The goal of the present study was to test predicted outcome value theory (POV) in the classroom in order to discover the implications of students' POV judgments. Specifically, we explored the relationships among students' initial POV judgments and students' communication. To that end, we conducted a two-phase study in which students completed…

  10. Predicting Social Support for Grieving Persons: A Theory of Planned Behavior Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bath, Debra M.

    2009-01-01

    Research has consistently reported that social support from family, friends, and colleagues is an important factor in the bereaved person's ability to cope after the loss of a loved one. This study used a Theory of Planned Behavior framework to identify those factors that predict a person's intention to interact with, and support, a grieving…

  11. Using Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict Healthy Eating among Danish Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gronhoj, Alice; Bech-Larsen, Tino; Chan, Kara; Tsang, Lennon

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of the study was to apply the theory of planned behavior to predict Danish adolescents' behavioral intention for healthy eating. Design/methodology/approach: A cluster sample survey of 410 students aged 11 to 16 years studying in Grade 6 to Grade 10 was conducted in Denmark. Findings: Perceived behavioral control followed by…

  12. Predicting Study Abroad Intentions Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schnusenberg, Oliver; de Jong, Pieter; Goel, Lakshmi

    2012-01-01

    The emphasis on study abroad programs is growing in the academic context as U.S. based universities seek to incorporate a global perspective in education. Using a model that has underpinnings in the theory of planned behavior (TPB), we predict students' intention to participate in short-term study abroad program. We use TPB to identify behavioral,…

  13. The Theory of Planned Behavior: Predicting Teachers' Intentions and Behavior during Fitness Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanec, Amanda D. Stewart

    2009-01-01

    The twofold purpose of this study was to develop and validate an instrument that assessed teachers' intentions, attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavior control to administer fitness tests effectively, and to determine how well the instrument could predict teachers' intentions and actual behavior based on Ajzen's (1985, 1991) theory of…

  14. Expectancy Theory Prediction of the Preference to Remain Employed or to Retire

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eran, Mordechai; Jacobson, Dan

    1976-01-01

    Vroom's expectancy theory model to predict older worker's choices between employment or retirement hypothesized that a person's preference would be a function of differences between instrumentality of employment and retirement for attainment of outcomes, multiplied by the valence of each outcome, summed over outcomes. Results supported the…

  15. A Test and Extension of Objectification Theory as It Predicts Disordered Eating: Does Women's Age Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Augustus-Horvath, Casey L.; Tylka, Tracy L.

    2009-01-01

    When predicting disordered eating, models incorporating several of objectification theory's (B. L. Fredrickson & T. A. Roberts, 1997) core constructs (i.e., sexual objectification, self-objectification, body shame, poor interoceptive awareness) have been empirically supported with women of traditional undergraduate age who are consistent in age…

  16. Adolescents' Implicit Theories Predict Desire for Vengeance after Peer Conflicts: Correlational and Experimental Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeager, David S.; Trzesniewski, Kali H.; Tirri, Kirsi; Nokelainen, Petri; Dweck, Carol S.

    2011-01-01

    Why do some adolescents respond to interpersonal conflicts vengefully, whereas others seek more positive solutions? Three studies investigated the role of implicit theories of personality in predicting violent or vengeful responses to peer conflicts among adolescents in Grades 9 and 10. They showed that a greater belief that traits are fixed (an…

  17. A Finite Element Theory for Predicting the Attenuation of Extended-Reacting Liners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, W. R.; Jones, M. G.

    2009-01-01

    A non-modal finite element theory for predicting the attenuation of an extended-reacting liner containing a porous facesheet and located in a no-flow duct is presented. The mathematical approach is to solve separate wave equations in the liner and duct airway and to couple these two solutions by invoking kinematic constraints at the facesheet that are consistent with a continuum theory of fluid motion. Given the liner intrinsic properties, a weak Galerkin finite element formulation with cubic polynomial basis functions is used as the basis for generating a discrete system of acoustic equations that are solved to obtain the coupled acoustic field. A state-of-the-art, asymmetric, parallel, sparse equation solver is implemented that allows tens of thousands of grid points to be analyzed. A grid refinement study is presented to show that the predicted attenuation converges. Excellent comparison of the numerically predicted attenuation to that of a mode theory (using a Haynes 25 metal foam liner) is used to validate the computational approach. Simulations are also presented for fifteen porous plate, extended-reacting liners. The construction of some of the porous plate liners suggest that they should behave as resonant liners while the construction of others suggest that they should behave as broadband attenuators. In each case the finite element theory is observed to predict the proper attenuation trend.

  18. Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chao, Yu-Long

    2012-01-01

    Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

  19. Adolescents' implicit theories predict desire for vengeance after peer conflicts: correlational and experimental evidence.

    PubMed

    Yeager, David S; Trzesniewski, Kali H; Tirri, Kirsi; Nokelainen, Petri; Dweck, Carol S

    2011-07-01

    Why do some adolescents respond to interpersonal conflicts vengefully, whereas others seek more positive solutions? Three studies investigated the role of implicit theories of personality in predicting violent or vengeful responses to peer conflicts among adolescents in Grades 9 and 10. They showed that a greater belief that traits are fixed (an entity theory) predicted a stronger desire for revenge after a variety of recalled peer conflicts (Study 1) and after a hypothetical conflict that specifically involved bullying (Study 2). Study 3 experimentally induced a belief in the potential for change (an incremental theory), which resulted in a reduced desire to seek revenge. This effect was mediated by changes in bad-person attributions about the perpetrators, feelings of shame and hatred, and the belief that vengeful ideation is an effective emotion-regulation strategy. Together, the findings illuminate the social-cognitive processes underlying reactions to conflict and suggest potential avenues for reducing violent retaliation in adolescents. PMID:21604865

  20. Adolescents' implicit theories predict desire for vengeance after peer conflicts: correlational and experimental evidence.

    PubMed

    Yeager, David S; Trzesniewski, Kali H; Tirri, Kirsi; Nokelainen, Petri; Dweck, Carol S

    2011-07-01

    Why do some adolescents respond to interpersonal conflicts vengefully, whereas others seek more positive solutions? Three studies investigated the role of implicit theories of personality in predicting violent or vengeful responses to peer conflicts among adolescents in Grades 9 and 10. They showed that a greater belief that traits are fixed (an entity theory) predicted a stronger desire for revenge after a variety of recalled peer conflicts (Study 1) and after a hypothetical conflict that specifically involved bullying (Study 2). Study 3 experimentally induced a belief in the potential for change (an incremental theory), which resulted in a reduced desire to seek revenge. This effect was mediated by changes in bad-person attributions about the perpetrators, feelings of shame and hatred, and the belief that vengeful ideation is an effective emotion-regulation strategy. Together, the findings illuminate the social-cognitive processes underlying reactions to conflict and suggest potential avenues for reducing violent retaliation in adolescents.

  1. Predicting Intended Condom Use among Tanzanian Students using the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

    PubMed

    Lugoe, W; Rise, J

    1999-07-01

    This study examined whether perceived behavioural control predicted the intention to use condoms at next sexual intercourse above the components of the theory of reasoned action, as well as the sufficiency of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) as a theory of intention among Tanzanian adolescents. Five hundred and twenty-eight students who were sexually active, from seven secondary schools in Arusha, Northern Tanzania, completed a questionnaire designed to measure the components of the TPB. Behavioural intentions were significantly predictable from attitudes (.11), subjective norms (.22) and perceived behavioural control (.48). The inclusion of past behaviour into the regression equation increased R(2) only marginally (2 percent) but significantly, suggesting that the TPB provides a fairly accurate explanation of intention to use condoms among Tanzanian adolescents. The implications of this finding in relation to theoretical and practical issues are discussed.

  2. Cognitive models of risky choice: parameter stability and predictive accuracy of prospect theory.

    PubMed

    Glöckner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-04-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are individual differences as measured by model parameters stable enough to improve the ability to predict behavior as compared to modeling without adjustable parameters? We examined this issue in cumulative prospect theory (CPT), arguably the most widely used framework to model decisions under risk. Specifically, we examined (a) the temporal stability of CPT's parameters; and (b) how well different implementations of CPT, varying in the number of adjustable parameters, predict individual choice relative to models with no adjustable parameters (such as CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and various heuristics). We presented participants with risky choice problems and fitted CPT to each individual's choices in two separate sessions (which were 1 week apart). All parameters were correlated across time, in particular when using a simple implementation of CPT. CPT allowing for individual variability in parameter values predicted individual choice better than CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and the heuristics. CPT's parameters thus seem to pick up stable individual differences that need to be considered when predicting risky choice.

  3. Predicting childhood obesity prevention behaviors using social cognitive theory among upper elementary African-American children.

    PubMed

    Elmore, Shakeyrah; Sharma, Manoj

    Childhood obesity is a major public health problem in the African-American community. Commonly suggested public health strategies to reduce childhood obesity are limiting television viewing, encouraging daily moderately intense physical activity of at least 60 minutes per day, increasing fruit and vegetable intake to five or more cups per day, and increasing water consumption. This study examined the extent to which selected social cognitive theory constructs can predict these four behaviors in African-American upper elementary children. A 56-item valid and reliable scale was administered to 222 students. Glasses of water consumed were predicted by self-control for drinking water and self-efficacy for drinking water (R2 = 0.123). Fruits and vegetables consumed were predicted by self-efficacy for eating fruits and vegetables (R2 = 0.083). For designing primary prevention interventions to reduce childhood obesity in the African-American community, social cognitive theory provides a useful framework.

  4. Optimal Resource Allocation in Library Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rouse, William B.

    1975-01-01

    Queueing theory is used to model processes as either waiting or balking processes. The optimal allocation of resources to these processes is defined as that which maximizes the expected value of the decision-maker's utility function. (Author)

  5. DNA Methylation and Sex Allocation in the Parasitoid Wasp Nasonia vitripennis.

    PubMed

    Cook, Nicola; Pannebakker, Bart A; Tauber, Eran; Shuker, David M

    2015-10-01

    The role of epigenetics in the control and evolution of behavior is being increasingly recognized. Here we test whether DNA methylation influences patterns of adaptive sex allocation in the parasitoid wasp Nasonia vitripennis. Female N. vitripennis allocate offspring sex broadly in line with local mate competition (LMC) theory. However, recent theory has highlighted how genomic conflict may influence sex allocation under LMC, conflict that requires parent-of-origin information to be retained by alleles through some form of epigenetic signal. We manipulated whole-genome DNA methylation in N. vitripennis females using the hypomethylating agent 5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine. Across two replicated experiments, we show that disruption of DNA methylation does not ablate the facultative sex allocation response of females, as sex ratios still vary with cofoundress number as in the classical theory. However, sex ratios are generally shifted upward when DNA methylation is disrupted. Our data are consistent with predictions from genomic conflict over sex allocation theory and suggest that sex ratios may be closer to the optimum for maternally inherited alleles. PMID:26655574

  6. Predicting community structure in snakes on Eastern Nearctic islands using ecological neutral theory and phylogenetic methods.

    PubMed

    Burbrink, Frank T; McKelvy, Alexander D; Pyron, R Alexander; Myers, Edward A

    2015-11-22

    Predicting species presence and richness on islands is important for understanding the origins of communities and how likely it is that species will disperse and resist extinction. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography (ETIB) and, as a simple model of sampling abundances, the unified neutral theory of biodiversity (UNTB), predict that in situations where mainland to island migration is high, species-abundance relationships explain the presence of taxa on islands. Thus, more abundant mainland species should have a higher probability of occurring on adjacent islands. In contrast to UNTB, if certain groups have traits that permit them to disperse to islands better than other taxa, then phylogeny may be more predictive of which taxa will occur on islands. Taking surveys of 54 island snake communities in the Eastern Nearctic along with mainland communities that have abundance data for each species, we use phylogenetic assembly methods and UNTB estimates to predict island communities. Species richness is predicted by island area, whereas turnover from the mainland to island communities is random with respect to phylogeny. Community structure appears to be ecologically neutral and abundance on the mainland is the best predictor of presence on islands. With regard to young and proximate islands, where allopatric or cladogenetic speciation is not a factor, we find that simple neutral models following UNTB and ETIB predict the structure of island communities. PMID:26609083

  7. Can the theory of planned behaviour predict the physical activity behaviour of individuals?

    PubMed

    Hobbs, Nicola; Dixon, Diane; Johnston, Marie; Howie, Kate

    2013-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) can identify cognitions that predict differences in behaviour between individuals. However, it is not clear whether the TPB can predict the behaviour of an individual person. This study employs a series of n-of-1 studies and time series analyses to examine the ability of the TPB to predict physical activity (PA) behaviours of six individuals. Six n-of-1 studies were conducted, in which TPB cognitions and up to three PA behaviours (walking, gym workout and a personally defined PA) were measured twice daily for six weeks. Walking was measured by pedometer step count, gym attendance by self-report with objective validation of gym entry and the personally defined PA behaviour by self-report. Intra-individual variability in TPB cognitions and PA behaviour was observed in all participants. The TPB showed variable predictive utility within individuals and across behaviours. The TPB predicted at least one PA behaviour for five participants but had no predictive utility for one participant. Thus, n-of-1 designs and time series analyses can be used to test theory in an individual.

  8. Predicting community structure in snakes on Eastern Nearctic islands using ecological neutral theory and phylogenetic methods.

    PubMed

    Burbrink, Frank T; McKelvy, Alexander D; Pyron, R Alexander; Myers, Edward A

    2015-11-22

    Predicting species presence and richness on islands is important for understanding the origins of communities and how likely it is that species will disperse and resist extinction. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography (ETIB) and, as a simple model of sampling abundances, the unified neutral theory of biodiversity (UNTB), predict that in situations where mainland to island migration is high, species-abundance relationships explain the presence of taxa on islands. Thus, more abundant mainland species should have a higher probability of occurring on adjacent islands. In contrast to UNTB, if certain groups have traits that permit them to disperse to islands better than other taxa, then phylogeny may be more predictive of which taxa will occur on islands. Taking surveys of 54 island snake communities in the Eastern Nearctic along with mainland communities that have abundance data for each species, we use phylogenetic assembly methods and UNTB estimates to predict island communities. Species richness is predicted by island area, whereas turnover from the mainland to island communities is random with respect to phylogeny. Community structure appears to be ecologically neutral and abundance on the mainland is the best predictor of presence on islands. With regard to young and proximate islands, where allopatric or cladogenetic speciation is not a factor, we find that simple neutral models following UNTB and ETIB predict the structure of island communities.

  9. Can the theory of planned behaviour predict the physical activity behaviour of individuals?

    PubMed

    Hobbs, Nicola; Dixon, Diane; Johnston, Marie; Howie, Kate

    2013-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) can identify cognitions that predict differences in behaviour between individuals. However, it is not clear whether the TPB can predict the behaviour of an individual person. This study employs a series of n-of-1 studies and time series analyses to examine the ability of the TPB to predict physical activity (PA) behaviours of six individuals. Six n-of-1 studies were conducted, in which TPB cognitions and up to three PA behaviours (walking, gym workout and a personally defined PA) were measured twice daily for six weeks. Walking was measured by pedometer step count, gym attendance by self-report with objective validation of gym entry and the personally defined PA behaviour by self-report. Intra-individual variability in TPB cognitions and PA behaviour was observed in all participants. The TPB showed variable predictive utility within individuals and across behaviours. The TPB predicted at least one PA behaviour for five participants but had no predictive utility for one participant. Thus, n-of-1 designs and time series analyses can be used to test theory in an individual. PMID:22943555

  10. Towards a general theory of neural computation based on prediction by single neurons.

    PubMed

    Fiorillo, Christopher D

    2008-01-01

    Although there has been tremendous progress in understanding the mechanics of the nervous system, there has not been a general theory of its computational function. Here I present a theory that relates the established biophysical properties of single generic neurons to principles of Bayesian probability theory, reinforcement learning and efficient coding. I suggest that this theory addresses the general computational problem facing the nervous system. Each neuron is proposed to mirror the function of the whole system in learning to predict aspects of the world related to future reward. According to the model, a typical neuron receives current information about the state of the world from a subset of its excitatory synaptic inputs, and prior information from its other inputs. Prior information would be contributed by synaptic inputs representing distinct regions of space, and by different types of non-synaptic, voltage-regulated channels representing distinct periods of the past. The neuron's membrane voltage is proposed to signal the difference between current and prior information ("prediction error" or "surprise"). A neuron would apply a Hebbian plasticity rule to select those excitatory inputs that are the most closely correlated with reward but are the least predictable, since unpredictable inputs provide the neuron with the most "new" information about future reward. To minimize the error in its predictions and to respond only when excitation is "new and surprising," the neuron selects amongst its prior information sources through an anti-Hebbian rule. The unique inputs of a mature neuron would therefore result from learning about spatial and temporal patterns in its local environment, and by extension, the external world. Thus the theory describes how the structure of the mature nervous system could reflect the structure of the external world, and how the complexity and intelligence of the system might develop from a population of undifferentiated neurons

  11. Population-based visual acuity in the presence of defocus well predicted by classical theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weeber, Henk A.; Featherstone, Kristen A.; Piers, Patricia A.

    2010-07-01

    According to classical theory, visual acuity (VA) can be modeled using the intersection of the eye's modulation transfer function with a retinal threshold function. To date, there have been limited attempts to validate this methodology by comparing theory with actual measured data. We use the methodology to predict the visual acuity in the presence of defocus of a population of cataract patients implanted with diffractive multifocal intraocular lenses. For the prediction, we used a set of physiological eye models that include chromatic and higher order aberrations. We found that the simulations correlated strongly to the clinical outcomes (R2=0.93). While the simulated VA of the eye models was systematically 0.05 logMAR units lower (better acuity) than the clinical results, this difference was independent of defocus (p=0.98). These results show that when the simple and straightforward classical theory is applied using physiological eye models, accurate predictions of the VA, and through-focus VA of a population can be made. This method may be suited for predicting visual performance of new cataract and refractive treatments.

  12. Theory of mind selectively predicts preschoolers' knowledge-based selective word learning.

    PubMed

    Brosseau-Liard, Patricia; Penney, Danielle; Poulin-Dubois, Diane

    2015-11-01

    Children can selectively attend to various attributes of a model, such as past accuracy or physical strength, to guide their social learning. There is a debate regarding whether a relation exists between theory-of-mind skills and selective learning. We hypothesized that high performance on theory-of-mind tasks would predict preference for learning new words from accurate informants (an epistemic attribute), but not from physically strong informants (a non-epistemic attribute). Three- and 4-year-olds (N = 65) completed two selective learning tasks, and their theory-of-mind abilities were assessed. As expected, performance on a theory-of-mind battery predicted children's preference to learn from more accurate informants but not from physically stronger informants. Results thus suggest that preschoolers with more advanced theory of mind have a better understanding of knowledge and apply that understanding to guide their selection of informants. This work has important implications for research on children's developing social cognition and early learning. PMID:26211504

  13. Theory of mind selectively predicts preschoolers' knowledge-based selective word learning.

    PubMed

    Brosseau-Liard, Patricia; Penney, Danielle; Poulin-Dubois, Diane

    2015-11-01

    Children can selectively attend to various attributes of a model, such as past accuracy or physical strength, to guide their social learning. There is a debate regarding whether a relation exists between theory-of-mind skills and selective learning. We hypothesized that high performance on theory-of-mind tasks would predict preference for learning new words from accurate informants (an epistemic attribute), but not from physically strong informants (a non-epistemic attribute). Three- and 4-year-olds (N = 65) completed two selective learning tasks, and their theory-of-mind abilities were assessed. As expected, performance on a theory-of-mind battery predicted children's preference to learn from more accurate informants but not from physically stronger informants. Results thus suggest that preschoolers with more advanced theory of mind have a better understanding of knowledge and apply that understanding to guide their selection of informants. This work has important implications for research on children's developing social cognition and early learning.

  14. Displacement Theories for In-Flight Deformed Shape Predictions of Aerospace Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Richards, W. L.; Tran, Van t.

    2007-01-01

    Displacement theories are developed for a variety of structures with the goal of providing real-time shape predictions for aerospace vehicles during flight. These theories are initially developed for a cantilever beam to predict the deformed shapes of the Helios flying wing. The main structural configuration of the Helios wing is a cantilever wing tubular spar subjected to bending, torsion, and combined bending and torsion loading. The displacement equations that are formulated are expressed in terms of strains measured at multiple sensing stations equally spaced on the surface of the wing spar. Displacement theories for other structures, such as tapered cantilever beams, two-point supported beams, wing boxes, and plates also are developed. The accuracy of the displacement theories is successfully validated by finite-element analysis and classical beam theory using input-strains generated by finite-element analysis. The displacement equations and associated strain-sensing system (such as fiber optic sensors) create a powerful means for in-flight deformation monitoring of aerospace structures. This method serves multiple purposes for structural shape sensing, loads monitoring, and structural health monitoring. Ultimately, the calculated displacement data can be visually displayed to the ground-based pilot or used as input to the control system to actively control the shape of structures during flight.

  15. Extension of Ko Straight-Beam Displacement Theory to Deformed Shape Predictions of Slender Curved Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Fleischer, Van Tran

    2011-01-01

    The Ko displacement theory originally developed for shape predictions of straight beams is extended to shape predictions of curved beams. The surface strains needed for shape predictions were analytically generated from finite-element nodal stress outputs. With the aid of finite-element displacement outputs, mathematical functional forms for curvature-effect correction terms are established and incorporated into straight-beam deflection equations for shape predictions of both cantilever and two-point supported curved beams. The newly established deflection equations for cantilever curved beams could provide quite accurate shape predictions for different cantilever curved beams, including the quarter-circle cantilever beam. Furthermore, the newly formulated deflection equations for two-point supported curved beams could provide accurate shape predictions for a range of two-point supported curved beams, including the full-circular ring. Accuracy of the newly developed curved-beam deflection equations is validated through shape prediction analysis of curved beams embedded in the windward shallow spherical shell of a generic crew exploration vehicle. A single-point collocation method for optimization of shape predictions is discussed in detail

  16. Dividing the waters: An empirical analysis of interstate compact allocation of transboundary rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katz, David L.; Moore, Michael R.

    2011-06-01

    Legal scholars and jurists have identified several criteria (e.g., hydrology, climate, population, and historical water use) to guide equitable allocation of transboundary rivers among riparian claimants. Are these criteria used in practice, such that a quantitative pattern emerges from actual water-sharing agreements regarding factors affecting allocations? To address this, we study interstate compacts, the principal mechanism for allocating the waters of transboundary rivers within the United States. We develop a georeferenced data set and construct variables representing conditions in state-based watersheds of 14 rivers at the times of compact ratification. A state's water allocation share of a compact serves as the dependent variable, and a set of explanatory variables is derived from legal and political theories. We estimate allocation shares using both ordinary least squares (OLS) and bootstrap regressions, and we apply two alternative specifications of the factors affecting compact allocations, one with and one without political variables. Estimated coefficients on variables for land area, population, prior water use, riparian position, and Congressional committee chair are statistically significant in the OLS regressions. The preferred OLS specification, which includes political variables, provides a good fit (R2 = 0.84). We also find that OLS and bootstrap regressions have a similar ability to predict state allocation shares. We discuss how the results could be used as a reference point in negotiations over new compacts or international river treaties and as a basis to identify existing compacts with statistical outliers.

  17. An equivalent potential vorticity theory applied to the analysis and prediction of severe storm dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paine, D. A.; Kaplan, M. L.

    1976-01-01

    Potential vorticity theory is developed in a description of an equivalent potential temperature topography, and a new theory suited to the description of scale interaction is elaborated. Macroscale triggering of ageostrophic flow fields at the mesoscale, in turn leading to release of convective instability along narrow zones at the microscale, is examined. Correlation of appreciable decrease in potential vorticity with such phenomena as cumulonimbi, tornados, and duststorms is examined. The relevance of a multiscale energy-momentum cascade in numerical prediction of severe mesoscale and microscale phenomena from radiosonde data is reviewed. Hypotheses for mesoscale dynamics are constructed.

  18. Predicting childhood obesity prevention behaviors using social cognitive theory: children in China.

    PubMed

    Murnan, Judy; Sharma, Manoj; Lin, Danhua

    Four commonly suggested public health strategies to combat childhood obesity are limiting television viewing, encouraging daily physical activity, increasing fruit and vegetable intake, and increasing water consumption. This study examined the extent to which selected social cognitive theory constructs can predict these four behaviors in upper elementary Chinese children. A 55-item valid and reliable scale was administered to 282 fifth-graders. Minutes of physical activity was predicted by self-efficacy to exercise and number of times taught at school (R2 = 0.198). Hours of TV watching was predicted by self-efficacy of watching less than two hours of TV (R2 = 0.155). Glasses of water consumed was predicted by self-efficacy for drinking water, gender, and number of times taught about physical activity at school (R2 = 0.100). Servings of fruits and vegetables consumed was predicted by self-efficacy of eating fruits and vegetables (R2 = 0.197). Social cognitive theory offers a useful framework for designing primary prevention interventions to reduce childhood obesity.

  19. When do normative beliefs about aggression predict aggressive behavior? An application of I3 theory.

    PubMed

    Li, Jian-Bin; Nie, Yan-Gang; Boardley, Ian D; Dou, Kai; Situ, Qiao-Min

    2015-01-01

    I(3) theory assumes that aggressive behavior is dependent on three orthogonal processes (i.e., Instigator, Impellance, and Inhibition). Previous studies showed that Impellance (trait aggressiveness, retaliation tendencies) better predicted aggression when Instigator was strong and Inhibition was weak. In the current study, we predicted that another Impellance (i.e., normative beliefs about aggression) might predict aggression when Instigator was absent and Inhibition was high (i.e., the perfect calm proposition). In two experiments, participants first completed the normative beliefs about aggression questionnaire. Two weeks later, participants' self-control resources were manipulated either using the Stroop task (study 1, N = 148) or through an "e-crossing" task (study 2, N = 180). Afterwards, with or without being provoked, participants played a game with an ostensible partner where they had a chance to aggress against them. Study 1 found that normative beliefs about aggression negatively and significantly predicted aggressive behavior only when provocation was absent and self-control resources were not depleted. In Study 2, normative beliefs about aggression negatively predicted aggressive behavior at marginal significance level only in the "no-provocation and no-depletion" condition. In conclusion, the current study provides partial support for the perfect calm proposition and I(3) theory.

  20. Pollution control costs of a transboundary river basin: Empirical tests of the fairness and stability of cost allocation mechanisms using game theory.

    PubMed

    Shi, Guang-Ming; Wang, Jin-Nan; Zhang, Bing; Zhang, Zhe; Zhang, Yong-Liang

    2016-07-15

    With rapid economic growth, transboundary river basin pollution in China has become a very serious problem. Based on practical experience in other countries, cooperation among regions is an economic way to control the emission of pollutants. This study develops a game theoretic simulation model to analyze the cost effectiveness of reducing water pollutant emissions in four regions of the Jialu River basin while considering the stability and fairness of four cost allocation schemes. Different schemes (the nucleolus, the weak nucleolus, the Shapley value and the Separable Cost Remaining Benefit (SCRB) principle) are used to allocate regionally agreed-upon water pollutant abatement costs. The main results show that the fully cooperative coalition yielded the highest incremental gain for regions willing to cooperate if each region agreed to negotiate by transferring part of the incremental gain obtained from the cooperation to cover the losses of other regions. In addition, these allocation schemes produce different outcomes in terms of their fairness to the players and in terms of their derived stability, as measured by the Shapley-Shubik Power Index and the Propensity to Disrupt. Although the Shapley value and the SCRB principle exhibit superior fairness and stabilization to the other methods, only the SCRB principle may maintains full cooperation among regions over the long term. The results provide clear empirical evidence that regional gain allocation may affect the sustainability of cooperation. Therefore, it is implied that not only the cost-effectiveness but also the long-term sustainability should be considered while formulating and implementing environmental policies. PMID:27088211

  1. Pollution control costs of a transboundary river basin: Empirical tests of the fairness and stability of cost allocation mechanisms using game theory.

    PubMed

    Shi, Guang-Ming; Wang, Jin-Nan; Zhang, Bing; Zhang, Zhe; Zhang, Yong-Liang

    2016-07-15

    With rapid economic growth, transboundary river basin pollution in China has become a very serious problem. Based on practical experience in other countries, cooperation among regions is an economic way to control the emission of pollutants. This study develops a game theoretic simulation model to analyze the cost effectiveness of reducing water pollutant emissions in four regions of the Jialu River basin while considering the stability and fairness of four cost allocation schemes. Different schemes (the nucleolus, the weak nucleolus, the Shapley value and the Separable Cost Remaining Benefit (SCRB) principle) are used to allocate regionally agreed-upon water pollutant abatement costs. The main results show that the fully cooperative coalition yielded the highest incremental gain for regions willing to cooperate if each region agreed to negotiate by transferring part of the incremental gain obtained from the cooperation to cover the losses of other regions. In addition, these allocation schemes produce different outcomes in terms of their fairness to the players and in terms of their derived stability, as measured by the Shapley-Shubik Power Index and the Propensity to Disrupt. Although the Shapley value and the SCRB principle exhibit superior fairness and stabilization to the other methods, only the SCRB principle may maintains full cooperation among regions over the long term. The results provide clear empirical evidence that regional gain allocation may affect the sustainability of cooperation. Therefore, it is implied that not only the cost-effectiveness but also the long-term sustainability should be considered while formulating and implementing environmental policies.

  2. New predictions for generalized spin polarizabilities from heavy baryon chiral perturbation theory

    SciTech Connect

    Chung-Wen Kao; Barbara Pasquini; Marc Vanderhaeghen

    2004-08-01

    We extract the next-to-next-to-leading order results for spin-flip generalized polarizabilities (GPs) of the nucleon from the spin-dependent amplitudes for virtual Compton scattering (VCS) at {Omicron}(p{sup 4}) in heavy baryon chiral perturbation theory. At this order, no unknown low energy constants enter the theory, allowing us to make absolute predictions for all spin-flip GPs. Furthermore, by using constraint equations between the GPs due to nucleon crossing combined with charge conjugation symmetry of the VCS amplitudes, we get a next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order prediction for one of the GPs. We provide estimates for forthcoming double polarization experiments which allow to access these spin-flip GPs of the nucleon.

  3. New predictions for generalized spin polarizabilities from heavy baryon chiral perturbation theory

    SciTech Connect

    Kao, C.-W.; Pasquini, Barbara; Vanderhaeghen, Marc

    2004-12-01

    We extract the next-to-next-to-leading order results for spin-flip generalized polarizabilities (GPs) of the nucleon from the spin-dependent amplitudes for virtual Compton scattering at O(p{sup 4}) in heavy baryon chiral perturbation theory. At this order, no unknown low-energy constants enter the theory, allowing us to make absolute predictions for all spin-flip GPs. Furthermore, by using constraint equations between the GPs due to nucleon crossing combined with charge conjugation symmetry of the virtual Compton scattering amplitudes, we get a next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order prediction for one of the GPs. We provide estimates for forthcoming double-polarization experiments which allow one to access these spin-flip GPs of the nucleon.

  4. Predicting (17)O NMR chemical shifts of polyoxometalates using density functional theory.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Rupali; Zhang, Jie; Ohlin, C André

    2016-03-21

    We have investigated the computation of (17)O NMR chemical shifts of a wide range of polyoxometalates using density functional theory. The effects of basis sets and exchange-correlation functionals are explored, and whereas pure DFT functionals generally predict the chemical shifts of terminal oxygen sites quite well, hybrid functionals are required for the prediction of accurate chemical shifts in conjunction with linear regression. By using PBE0/def2-tzvp//PBE0/cc-pvtz(H-Ar), lanl2dz(K-) we have computed the chemical shifts of 37 polyoxometalates, corresponding to 209 (17)O NMR signals. We also show that at this level of theory the protonation-induced pH dependence of the chemical shift of the triprotic hexaniobate Lindqvist anion, [HxNb6O19]((8-x)), can be reproduced, which suggests that hypotheses regarding loci of protonation can be confidently tested. PMID:26925832

  5. Chiral effective field theory predictions for muon capture on deuteron and {3}He.

    PubMed

    Marcucci, L E; Kievsky, A; Rosati, S; Schiavilla, R; Viviani, M

    2012-02-01

    The muon-capture reactions {2}H(μ{-},ν{μ})nn and {3}He(μ{-},ν{μ}){3}H are studied with nuclear potentials and charge-changing weak currents, derived in chiral effective field theory. The low-energy constants (LECs) c{D} and c{E}, present in the three-nucleon potential and (c{D}) axial-vector current, are constrained to reproduce the A=3 binding energies and the triton Gamow-Teller matrix element. The muon-capture rates on deuteron and {3}He are predicted to be 399±3  sec{-1} and 1494±21  sec{-1}, respectively. The spread accounts for the cutoff sensitivity, as well as uncertainties in the LECs and electroweak radiative corrections. By comparing the calculated and precisely measured rates on {3}He, a value for the induced pseudoscalar form factor is obtained in good agreement with the chiral perturbation theory prediction.

  6. Predicting adolescent breakfast consumption in the UK and Australia using an extended theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Mullan, Barbara; Wong, Cara; Kothe, Emily

    2013-03-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) with the addition of risk awareness could predict breakfast consumption in a sample of adolescents from the UK and Australia. It was hypothesised that the TPB variables of attitudes, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control (PBC) would significantly predict intentions, and that inclusion of risk perception would increase the proportion of variance explained. Secondly it was hypothesised that intention and PBC would predict behaviour. Participants were recruited from secondary schools in Australia and the UK. A total of 613 participants completed the study (448 females, 165 males; mean=14years ±1.1). The TPB predicted 42.2% of the variance in intentions to eat breakfast. All variables significantly predicted intention with PBC as the strongest component. The addition of risk made a small but significant contribution to the prediction of intention. Together intention and PBC predicted 57.8% of the variance in breakfast consumption. PMID:23219456

  7. Theory of Mind and Emotion Understanding Predict Moral Development in Early Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lane, Jonathan D.; Wellman, Henry M.; Olson, Sheryl L.; LaBounty, Jennifer; Kerr, David C. R.

    2010-01-01

    The current study utilized longitudinal data to investigate how theory of mind (ToM) and emotion understanding (EU) concurrently and prospectively predicted young children's moral reasoning and decision making. One hundred twenty-eight children were assessed on measures of ToM and EU at 3.5 and 5.5 years of age. At 5.5 years, children were also…

  8. Prevalence and prediction of positive discrepancy creation: examining a discrepancy between two self-regulation theories.

    PubMed

    Phillips, J M; Hollenbeck, J R; Ilgen, D R

    1996-10-01

    The conflicting perspectives of control theory (CT) and self-efficacy theory (SET) concerning positive discrepancy creation (PDC) were tested and are discussed. According to CT, discrepancies between past performance and future goals are continually reduced. This is contrary to SET's focus on setting future goals higher than past performance levels. Participants performed several trials in a multitask environment, during which they did as many or as few problems as they chose on each of 4 intellectual tasks. Results suggest that PDC is not uncommon in a multitask environment, even after extensive task experience. Regression decomposition techniques identified 2 types of PDC: goal driven and performance driven. Need for achievement, instrumentality, and expectancy predicted the 2 types of PDC with varying success across the 4 tasks. The 2 types of PDC reflect the different theoretical approaches and these 2 self-regulation theories.

  9. The arcing rate for a High Voltage Solar Array - Theory, experiment and predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hastings, Daniel E.; Cho, Mengu; Kuninaka, Hitoshi

    1992-01-01

    All solar arrays have biased surfaces which can be exposed to the space environment. It has been observed that when the array bias is less than a few hundred volts negative then the exposed conductive surfaces may undergo arcing in the space plasma. A theory for arcing is developed on these high voltage solar arrays which ascribes the arcing to electric field runaway at the interface of the plasma, conductor and solar cell dielectric. Experiments were conducted in the laboratory for the High Voltage Solar Array (HVSA) experiment which will fly on the Japanese Space Flyer Unit (SFU) in 1994. The theory was compared in detail to the experiment and shown to give a reasonable explanation for the data. The combined theory and ground experiments were then used to develop predictions for the SFU flight.

  10. Arcing rates for High Voltage Solar Arrays - Theory, experiment, and predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hastings, Daniel E.; Cho, Mengu; Kuninaka, Hitoshi

    1992-01-01

    All solar arrays have biased surfaces that can be exposed to the space environment. It has been observed that when the array bias is less than a few hundred volts negative, then the exposed conductive surfaces may undergo arcing in the space plasma. A theory for arcing is developed on these high voltage solar arrays that ascribes the arcing to electric field runaway at the interface of the plasma, conductor, and solar cell dielectric. Experiments were conducted in the laboratory for the High Voltage Solar Array experiment that will fly on the Japanese Space Flyer Unit (SFU) in 1994. The theory was compared in detail with the experiment and shown to give a reasonable explanation for the data. The combined theory and ground experiments were then used to develop predictions for the SFU flight.

  11. How well does Preisach Theory predict Pseudo-Single-Domain Behavior?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muxworthy, A. R.

    2015-12-01

    Single-domain Preisach theory has been used to quantify the behaviour of natural systems, for example, it has been used to determine paleointensity estimates from first-order-reversal-curve (FORC) measurements on natural samples, but how well does Presiach theory explain the behavior of the particles dominant in many natural systems: pseudo-single-domain (PSD) grains? Using experimental data collected from synthetic samples I investigate this. The samples were generated by electron beam lithography, and consist of two-dimensional arrays of near-identical particles in the PSD grain size range. To generate a Preisach distribution, I measure a FORC diagram and then compare measured responses, e.g., alternating-field demagnetisation, with those predicted by a single-domain Preisach theory.

  12. Further Development of Ko Displacement Theory for Deformed Shape Predictions of Nonuniform Aerospace Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Fleischer, Van Tran

    2009-01-01

    The Ko displacement theory previously formulated for deformed shape predictions of nonuniform beam structures is further developed mathematically. The further-developed displacement equations are expressed explicitly in terms of geometrical parameters of the beam and bending strains at equally spaced strain-sensing stations along the multiplexed fiber-optic sensor line installed on the bottom surface of the beam. The bending strain data can then be input into the displacement equations for calculations of local slopes, deflections, and cross-sectional twist angles for generating the overall deformed shapes of the nonuniform beam. The further-developed displacement theory can also be applied to the deformed shape predictions of nonuniform two-point supported beams, nonuniform panels, nonuniform aircraft wings and fuselages, and so forth. The high degree of accuracy of the further-developed displacement theory for nonuniform beams is validated by finite-element analysis of various nonuniform beam structures. Such structures include tapered tubular beams, depth-tapered unswept and swept wing boxes, width-tapered wing boxes, and double-tapered wing boxes, all under combined bending and torsional loads. The Ko displacement theory, combined with the fiber-optic strain-sensing system, provide a powerful tool for in-flight deformed shape monitoring of unmanned aerospace vehicles by ground-based pilots to maintain safe flights.

  13. On the Applicability of DLVO Theory to the Prediction of Clay Colloids Stability.

    PubMed

    Missana; Adell

    2000-10-01

    The stability behavior of Na-montmorillonite colloids has been studied by combining the analysis of their surface charge properties and time-resolved dynamic light scattering experiments. The chemical surface model for several types of clays, including montmorillonite, has to take into account the double surface charge contribution due to their permanent structural charge and to their pH-dependent charge, which is developed at the edge sites, therefore, these stability studies were carried out as a function of both ionic strength and pH. DLVO theory is largely applied for the prediction of the stability of many colloidal systems, including the natural ones. This work shows that the stability behavior of Na-montmorillonite colloids cannot be satisfactorily reproduced by DLVO theory, using the surface parameters experimentally obtained. Particularly, this theory is unable to explain their pH-dependent stability behavior caused by the small charge at the edge sites. Based on these results, a literature review of DLVO stability prediction of clay colloids was performed. It confirmed that this theory is not capable of taking into account the double contribution to the total surface charge and, at the same time, pointed out the main uncertainties related to the appropriate use of the input parameters for the calculation as, for example, the Hamaker constant or the surface potential. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

  14. Using predator-prey theory to predict outcomes of broadscale experiments to reduce apparent competition.

    PubMed

    Serrouya, Robert; Wittmann, Meike J; McLellan, Bruce N; Wittmer, Heiko U; Boutin, Stan

    2015-05-01

    Apparent competition is an important process influencing many ecological communities. We used predator-prey theory to predict outcomes of ecosystem experiments aimed at mitigating apparent competition by reducing primary prey. Simulations predicted declines in secondary prey following reductions in primary prey because predators consumed more secondary prey until predator numbers responded to reduced prey densities. Losses were exacerbated by a higher carrying capacity of primary prey and a longer lag time of the predator's numerical response, but a gradual reduction in primary prey was less detrimental to the secondary prey. We compared predictions against two field experiments where endangered woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) were victims of apparent competition. First, when deer (Odocoileus sp.) declined suddenly following a severe winter, cougar (Puma concolor) declined with a 1-2-year lag, yet in the interim more caribou were killed by cougars, and caribou populations declined by 40%. Second, when moose (Alces alces) were gradually reduced using a management experiment, wolf (Canis lupus) populations declined but did not shift consumption to caribou, and the largest caribou subpopulation stabilized. The observed contrasting outcomes of sudden versus gradual declines in primary prey supported theoretical predictions. Combining theory with field studies clarified how to manage communities to mitigate endangerment caused by apparent competition that affects many taxa. PMID:25905509

  15. A logical learning theory explanation of why personality scales predict behavior.

    PubMed

    Gruba-McCallister, F P; Rychlak, J F

    1981-10-01

    An explanation of why personality scales predict is drawn from the tenets of logical learning theory (Rychlak, 1977). This theory holds that behavior is not only responsive in nature, but also telosponsive, i.e., enacted intentionally for the sake of premises. Personality scales tap the subject's premises concerning some aspect of behavior, the meanings of which are then extended in behavior telosponsively so that a prediction to some criterion performance becomes possible. The subject in effect creates the behavior based on his or her premises. An important telosponse inhuman learning is that of affective assessment, which is operationalized as reinforcement value (like-dislike). Two experiments establish the role of reinforcement value in scale measurement and prediction. The first demonstrates that subjects score higher on personality dimensions which they like very much than on dimensions which they greatly dislike. The second experiment then establishes that a personality dimension which a subject both likes and scores highly on is more predictive to an independently assessed manifestation of this personality characteristic than is a comparable dimension which is disliked.

  16. Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank; Ragone, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source climate model featuring O(105) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Using the theoretical framework of the pullback attractor and the tools of response theory we propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting - at any lead time and in an ensemble sense - the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as their spatial patterns. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  17. Using predator-prey theory to predict outcomes of broadscale experiments to reduce apparent competition.

    PubMed

    Serrouya, Robert; Wittmann, Meike J; McLellan, Bruce N; Wittmer, Heiko U; Boutin, Stan

    2015-05-01

    Apparent competition is an important process influencing many ecological communities. We used predator-prey theory to predict outcomes of ecosystem experiments aimed at mitigating apparent competition by reducing primary prey. Simulations predicted declines in secondary prey following reductions in primary prey because predators consumed more secondary prey until predator numbers responded to reduced prey densities. Losses were exacerbated by a higher carrying capacity of primary prey and a longer lag time of the predator's numerical response, but a gradual reduction in primary prey was less detrimental to the secondary prey. We compared predictions against two field experiments where endangered woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) were victims of apparent competition. First, when deer (Odocoileus sp.) declined suddenly following a severe winter, cougar (Puma concolor) declined with a 1-2-year lag, yet in the interim more caribou were killed by cougars, and caribou populations declined by 40%. Second, when moose (Alces alces) were gradually reduced using a management experiment, wolf (Canis lupus) populations declined but did not shift consumption to caribou, and the largest caribou subpopulation stabilized. The observed contrasting outcomes of sudden versus gradual declines in primary prey supported theoretical predictions. Combining theory with field studies clarified how to manage communities to mitigate endangerment caused by apparent competition that affects many taxa.

  18. Computer Processor Allocator

    2004-03-01

    The Compute Processor Allocator (CPA) provides an efficient and reliable mechanism for managing and allotting processors in a massively parallel (MP) computer. It maintains information in a database on the health. configuration and allocation of each processor. This persistent information is factored in to each allocation decision. The CPA runs in a distributed fashion to avoid a single point of failure.

  19. Field theory for biogeography: a spatially explicit model for predicting patterns of biodiversity.

    PubMed

    O'Dwyer, James P; Green, Jessica L

    2010-01-01

    Predicting the variation of biodiversity across the surface of the Earth is a fundamental issue in ecology, and in this article we focus on one of the most widely studied spatial biodiversity patterns: the species-area relationship (SAR). The SAR is a central tool in conservation, being used to predict species loss following global climate change, and is striking in its universality throughout different geographical regions and across the tree of life. In this article we draw upon the methods of quantum field theory and the foundation of neutral community ecology to derive the first spatially explicit neutral prediction for the SAR. We find that the SAR has three phases, with a power law increase at intermediate scales, consistent with decades of documented empirical patterns. Our model also provides a building block for incorporating non-neutral biological variation, with the potential to bridge the gap between neutral and niche-based approaches to community assembly. PMID:19909313

  20. Using social cognitive theory to predict physical activity and fitness in underserved middle school children.

    PubMed

    Martin, Jeffrey J; McCaughtry, Nate; Flory, Sara; Murphy, Anne; Wisdom, Kimberlydawn

    2011-06-01

    Few researchers have used social cognitive theory and environment-based constructs to predict physical activity (PA) and fitness in underserved middle-school children. Hence, we evaluated social cognitive variables and perceptions of the school environment to predict PA and fitness in middle school children (N = 506, ages 10-14 years). Using multiple regression analyses we accounted for 12% of the variance in PA and 13-21% of the variance in fitness. The best predictors of PA were barrier self-efficacy, classmate social support, and gender; whereas, only gender predicted fitness. The results affirmed the importance of barrier self-efficacy and gender differences. Our findings regarding classmate social support are some of the first to illuminate the importance of school-specific peers in promoting PA.

  1. Predicting Substance Abuse Treatment Completion using a New Scale Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Zemore, Sarah E.; Ajzen, Icek

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether a 9-item scale based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) predicted substance abuse treatment completion. Data were collected at a public, outpatient program among clients initiating treatment (N=200). Baseline surveys included measures of treatment-related attitudes, norms, perceived control, and intention; discharge status was collected from program records. As expected, TPB attitude and control components independently predicted intention (model R-squared=.56), and intention was positively associated with treatment completion even including clinical and demographic covariates (model R-squared=.24). TPB components were generally associated with the alternative readiness scales as expected, and the TPB remained predictive at higher levels of coercion. Meanwhile, none of the standard measures of readiness (e.g., the URICA and TREAT) or treatment coercion were positively associated with treatment participation. Results suggest promise for application of the TPB to treatment completion and support use of the intention component as a screener, though some refinements are suggested. PMID:23953167

  2. AAA gunnermodel based on observer theory. [predicting a gunner's tracking response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kou, R. S.; Glass, B. C.; Day, C. N.; Vikmanis, M. M.

    1978-01-01

    The Luenberger observer theory is used to develop a predictive model of a gunner's tracking response in antiaircraft artillery systems. This model is composed of an observer, a feedback controller and a remnant element. An important feature of the model is that the structure is simple, hence a computer simulation requires only a short execution time. A parameter identification program based on the least squares curve fitting method and the Gauss Newton gradient algorithm is developed to determine the parameter values of the gunner model. Thus, a systematic procedure exists for identifying model parameters for a given antiaircraft tracking task. Model predictions of tracking errors are compared with human tracking data obtained from manned simulation experiments. Model predictions are in excellent agreement with the empirical data for several flyby and maneuvering target trajectories.

  3. Predicting substance abuse treatment completion using a new scale based on the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Zemore, Sarah E; Ajzen, Icek

    2014-02-01

    We examined whether a 9-item scale based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) predicted substance abuse treatment completion. Data were collected at a public, outpatient program among clients initiating treatment (N=200). Baseline surveys included measures of treatment-related attitudes, norms, perceived control, and intention; discharge status was collected from program records. As expected, TPB attitude and control components independently predicted intention (model R-squared=.56), and intention was positively associated with treatment completion even including clinical and demographic covariates (model R-squared=.24). TPB components were generally associated with the alternative readiness scales as expected, and the TPB remained predictive at higher levels of coercion. Meanwhile, none of the standard measures of readiness (e.g., the URICA and TREAT) or treatment coercion were positively associated with treatment participation. Results suggest promise for application of the TPB to treatment completion and support use of the intention component as a screener, though some refinements are suggested. PMID:23953167

  4. Community ecology theory predicts the effects of agrochemical mixtures on aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem properties.

    PubMed

    Halstead, Neal T; McMahon, Taegan A; Johnson, Steve A; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; Crumrine, Patrick W; Rohr, Jason R

    2014-08-01

    Ecosystems are often exposed to mixtures of chemical contaminants, but the scientific community lacks a theoretical framework to predict the effects of mixtures on biodiversity and ecosystem properties. We conducted a freshwater mesocosm experiment to examine the effects of pairwise agrochemical mixtures [fertiliser, herbicide (atrazine), insecticide (malathion) and fungicide (chlorothalonil)] on 24 species- and seven ecosystem-level responses. As postulated, the responses of biodiversity and ecosystem properties to agrochemicals alone and in mixtures was predictable by integrating information on each functional group's (1) sensitivity to the chemicals (direct effects), (2) reproductive rates (recovery rates), (3) interaction strength with other functional groups (indirect effects) and (4) links to ecosystem properties. These results show that community ecology theory holds promise for predicting the effects of contaminant mixtures on biodiversity and ecosystem services and yields recommendations on which types of agrochemicals to apply together and separately to reduce their impacts on aquatic ecosystems.

  5. In Your Eyes: Does Theory of Mind Predict Impaired Life Functioning in Bipolar Disorder?

    PubMed Central

    Purcell, Amanda L.; Phillips, Mary; Gruber, June

    2013-01-01

    Background Deficits in emotion perception and social functioning are strongly implicated in bipolar disorder (BD). Examining theory of mind (ToM) may provide one potential mechanism to explain observed socio-emotional impairments in this disorder. The present study prospectively investigated the relationship between theory of mind performance and life functioning in individuals diagnosed with BD compared to unipolar depression and healthy control groups. Methods Theory of mind (ToM) performance was examined in 26 individuals with remitted bipolar I disorder (BD), 29 individuals with remitted unipolar depression (UD), and 28 healthy controls (CTL) using a well-validated advanced theory of mind task. Accuracy and response latency scores were calculated from the task. Life functioning was measured during a 12 month follow-up session. Results No group differences for ToM accuracy emerged. However, the BD group exhibited significantly shorter response times than the UD and CTL groups. Importantly, quicker response times in the BD group predicted greater life functioning impairment at a 12-month follow-up, even after controlling for baseline symptoms. Limitations The stimuli were static representations of emotional states and do not allow for evaluating the appropriateness of context during emotional communication; due to sample size, neither specific comorbidities nor medication effects were analyzed for the BD and UD groups; preliminary status of theory of mind as a construct. Conclusions Results suggest that quickened socio-emotional decision making may represent a risk factor for future functional impairment in BD. PMID:23896318

  6. Extended Network Generalized Entanglement Theory: therapeutic mechanisms, empirical predictions, and investigations.

    PubMed

    Hyland, Michael E

    2003-12-01

    Extended Network Generalized Entanglement Theory (Entanglement Theory for short) combines two earlier theories based on complexity theory and quantum mechanics. The theory's assumptions are: the body is a complex, self-organizing system (the extended network) that self-organizes so as to achieve genetically defined patterns (where patterns include morphologic as well as lifestyle patterns). These pattern-specifying genes require feedback that is provided by generalized quantum entanglement. Additionally, generalized entanglement has evolved as a form of communication between people (and animals) and can be used in healing. Entanglement Theory suggests that several processes are involved in complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). Direct subtle therapy creates network change either through lifestyle management, some manual therapies, and psychologically mediated effects of therapy. Indirect subtle therapy is a process of entanglement with other people or physical entities (e.g., remedies, healing sites). Both types of subtle therapy create two kinds of information within the network--either that the network is more disregulated than it is and the network then compensates for this error, or as a guide for network change leading to healing. Most CAM therapies involve a combination of indirect and direct therapies, making empirical evaluation complex. Empirical predictions from this theory are contrasted with those from two other possible mechanisms of healing: (1) psychologic processes and (2) mechanisms involving electromagnetic influence between people (biofield/energy medicine). Topics for empirical study include a hyperfast communication system, the phenomenology of entanglement, predictors of outcome in naturally occurring clinical settings, and the importance of therapist and patient characteristics to outcome.

  7. Towards a Predictive Theory of Malaria: Connections to Spatio-temporal Variability of Climate and Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endo, N.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria transmission is closely linked to climatology, hydrology, environment, and the biology of local vectors. These factors interact with each other and non-linearly influence malaria transmission dynamics, making prediction and prevention challenging. Our work attempts to find a universality in the multi-dimensional system of malaria transmission and to develop a theory to predict emergence of malaria given a limited set of environmental and biological inputs.A credible malaria transmission dynamics model, HYDREMATS (Bomblies et al., 2008), was used under hypothetical settings to investigate the role of spatial and temporal distribution of vector breeding pools. HYDREMATS is a mechanistic model and capable of simulating the basic reproduction rate (Ro) without bold assumptions even under dynamic conditions. The spatial distribution of pools is mainly governed by hydrological factors; the impact of pool persistence and rainy season length on malaria transmission were investigated. Also analyzed was the impact of the temporal distribution of pools relative to human houses. We developed non-dimensional variables combining the hydrological and biological parameters. Simulated values of Ro from HYDREMATS are presented in a newly-introduced non-dimensional plane, which leads to a some-what universal theory describing the condition for sustainable malaria transmission. The findings were tested against observations both from the West Africa and the Ethiopian Highland, representing diverse hydroclimatological conditions. Predicated Ro values from the theory over the two regions are in good agreement with the observed malaria transmission data.

  8. Predicting and understanding mothers' infant-feeding intentions and behavior: testing the theory of reasoned action.

    PubMed

    Manstead, A S; Proffitt, C; Smart, J L

    1983-04-01

    The present study examines the applicability of Fishbein and Ajzen's theory of reasoned action to the prediction and understanding of how primiparous and multiparous mothers intended to feed their infants and how they actually fed these infants during the 6 weeks following delivery. Measures of attitudes to behavior, subjective norms, and behavioral intentions were taken during the last trimester of pregnancy. Behavior was assessed by self-report 6 weeks postpartum. In most respects the findings supported the theory of reasoned action. However, attitudes to behavior were found to make an independent and significant contribution to the prediction of infant-feeding behavior, and the previous behavior of multiparous mothers explained an independent and significant proportion of variation in their behavioral intentions. The relative importance of the attitudinal and normative components of the theoretical model tended to vary according to whether the mothers had direct experience of the criterion behavior. Further analysis revealed that mothers who breast-fed during the 6-week postpartum period differed from those who bottle-fed exclusively during this period on a number of behavioral beliefs, outcome evaluations, and normative beliefs, and on one measure of motivation to comply. The implications of these findings for the theory of reasoned action are discussed.

  9. Testing predictions from the male control theory of men's partner violence.

    PubMed

    Bates, Elizabeth A; Graham-Kevan, Nicola; Archer, John

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to test predictions from the male control theory of intimate partner violence (IPV) and Johnson's [Johnson, M. P. (1995). Journal of Marriage and the Family, 57, 282-294] typology. A student sample (N = 1,104) reported on their use of physical aggression and controlling behavior, to partners and to same-sex non-intimates. Contrary to the male control theory, women were found to be more physically aggressive to their partners than men were, and the reverse pattern was found for aggression to same-sex non-intimates. Furthermore, there were no substantial sex differences in controlling behavior, which significantly predicted physical aggression in both sexes. IPV was found to be associated with physical aggression to same-sex non-intimates, thereby demonstrating a link with aggression outside the family. Using Johnson's typology, women were more likely than men to be classed as "intimate terrorists," which was counter to earlier findings. Overall, these results do not support the male control theory of IPV. Instead, they fit the view that IPV does not have a special etiology, and is better studied within the context of other forms of aggression.

  10. Predictions about bisymmetry and cross-modal matches from global theories of subjective intensities.

    PubMed

    Luce, R Duncan

    2012-04-01

    The article first summarizes the assumptions of Luce (2004, 2008) for inherently binary (2-D) stimuli (e.g., the ears and eyes) that lead to a "p-additive," order-preserving psychophysical representation. Next, a somewhat parallel theory for unary (1-D) signals is developed for intensity attributes such as linear extent, vibration to finger, and money. The 3rd section studies the property of bisymmetry in these 2 cases. For the 2-D case and the nontrivial p-additive forms, Proposition 3 shows that bisymmetry implies commutativity of the presentations. Bisymmetry has been empirically well sustained, whereas commutativity has been rejected for loudness, brightness, and perceived contrast, thus implying that pure additivity must obtain in the 2-D context. By contrast, bisymmetry and commutativity are automatically satisfied by the p-additive 1-D theory. The 4th section explores the resulting complex of cross-modal predictions. For the additive 1-D case and the 2-D case, the predictions are power functions. For the nonadditive 1-D cases, other relations are predicted (see Table 2). Some parameter estimation issues are taken up in Appendices B and C.

  11. Large-Scale Transportation Network Congestion Evolution Prediction Using Deep Learning Theory

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Xiaolei; Yu, Haiyang; Wang, Yunpeng; Wang, Yinhai

    2015-01-01

    Understanding how congestion at one location can cause ripples throughout large-scale transportation network is vital for transportation researchers and practitioners to pinpoint traffic bottlenecks for congestion mitigation. Traditional studies rely on either mathematical equations or simulation techniques to model traffic congestion dynamics. However, most of the approaches have limitations, largely due to unrealistic assumptions and cumbersome parameter calibration process. With the development of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and Internet of Things (IoT), transportation data become more and more ubiquitous. This triggers a series of data-driven research to investigate transportation phenomena. Among them, deep learning theory is considered one of the most promising techniques to tackle tremendous high-dimensional data. This study attempts to extend deep learning theory into large-scale transportation network analysis. A deep Restricted Boltzmann Machine and Recurrent Neural Network architecture is utilized to model and predict traffic congestion evolution based on Global Positioning System (GPS) data from taxi. A numerical study in Ningbo, China is conducted to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. Results show that the prediction accuracy can achieve as high as 88% within less than 6 minutes when the model is implemented in a Graphic Processing Unit (GPU)-based parallel computing environment. The predicted congestion evolution patterns can be visualized temporally and spatially through a map-based platform to identify the vulnerable links for proactive congestion mitigation. PMID:25780910

  12. Large-scale transportation network congestion evolution prediction using deep learning theory.

    PubMed

    Ma, Xiaolei; Yu, Haiyang; Wang, Yunpeng; Wang, Yinhai

    2015-01-01

    Understanding how congestion at one location can cause ripples throughout large-scale transportation network is vital for transportation researchers and practitioners to pinpoint traffic bottlenecks for congestion mitigation. Traditional studies rely on either mathematical equations or simulation techniques to model traffic congestion dynamics. However, most of the approaches have limitations, largely due to unrealistic assumptions and cumbersome parameter calibration process. With the development of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and Internet of Things (IoT), transportation data become more and more ubiquitous. This triggers a series of data-driven research to investigate transportation phenomena. Among them, deep learning theory is considered one of the most promising techniques to tackle tremendous high-dimensional data. This study attempts to extend deep learning theory into large-scale transportation network analysis. A deep Restricted Boltzmann Machine and Recurrent Neural Network architecture is utilized to model and predict traffic congestion evolution based on Global Positioning System (GPS) data from taxi. A numerical study in Ningbo, China is conducted to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. Results show that the prediction accuracy can achieve as high as 88% within less than 6 minutes when the model is implemented in a Graphic Processing Unit (GPU)-based parallel computing environment. The predicted congestion evolution patterns can be visualized temporally and spatially through a map-based platform to identify the vulnerable links for proactive congestion mitigation. PMID:25780910

  13. Large-scale transportation network congestion evolution prediction using deep learning theory.

    PubMed

    Ma, Xiaolei; Yu, Haiyang; Wang, Yunpeng; Wang, Yinhai

    2015-01-01

    Understanding how congestion at one location can cause ripples throughout large-scale transportation network is vital for transportation researchers and practitioners to pinpoint traffic bottlenecks for congestion mitigation. Traditional studies rely on either mathematical equations or simulation techniques to model traffic congestion dynamics. However, most of the approaches have limitations, largely due to unrealistic assumptions and cumbersome parameter calibration process. With the development of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and Internet of Things (IoT), transportation data become more and more ubiquitous. This triggers a series of data-driven research to investigate transportation phenomena. Among them, deep learning theory is considered one of the most promising techniques to tackle tremendous high-dimensional data. This study attempts to extend deep learning theory into large-scale transportation network analysis. A deep Restricted Boltzmann Machine and Recurrent Neural Network architecture is utilized to model and predict traffic congestion evolution based on Global Positioning System (GPS) data from taxi. A numerical study in Ningbo, China is conducted to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. Results show that the prediction accuracy can achieve as high as 88% within less than 6 minutes when the model is implemented in a Graphic Processing Unit (GPU)-based parallel computing environment. The predicted congestion evolution patterns can be visualized temporally and spatially through a map-based platform to identify the vulnerable links for proactive congestion mitigation.

  14. Reduction in Prosodic Prominence Predicts Speakers’ Recall: Implications for Theories of Prosody

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Duane G.; Benjamin, Aaron S.

    2014-01-01

    Repeated words are often reduced in prosodic prominence, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. The present study contrasted two theories: does prosodic reduction reflect the choice of a particular linguistic form, or does ease of retrieval within the language production system lead to facilitated, less prominent productions? One test of facilitation-based theories is suggested by findings on human memory: Whether a second presentation of an item benefits later memory is predicted by the item’s availability at the time of the second presentation. If prosodic reduction partially reflects facilitated retrieval, it should predict later memory. One naïve participant described to another participant routes on a map. Critical items were mentioned twice. Following the map task, the speaker attempted written recall of the mentioned items. As expected, acoustic intensity of the second mentions predicted later recall in the same way that difficulty of retrieval has in other tasks. This pattern suggests that one source of prosodic reduction is facilitation within the language production system. PMID:26594647

  15. a Classical Isodual Theory of Antimatter and its Prediction of Antigravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santilli, Ruggero Maria

    An inspection of the contemporary physics literature reveals that, while matter is treated at all levels of study, from Newtonian mechanics to quantum field theory, antimatter is solely treated at the level of second quantization. For the purpose of initiating the restoration of full equivalence in the treatment of matter and antimatter in due time, and as the classical foundations of an axiomatically consistent inclusion of gravitation in unified gauge theories recently appeared elsewhere, in this paper we present a classical representation of antimatter which begins at the primitive Newtonian level with corresponding formulations at all subsequent levels. By recalling that charge conjugation of particles into antiparticles is antiautomorphic, the proposed theory of antimatter is based on a new map, called isoduality, which is also antiautomorphic (and more generally, antiisomorphic), yet it is applicable beginning at the classical level and then persists at the quantum level where it becomes equivalent to charge conjugation. We therefore present, apparently for the first time, the classical isodual theory of antimatter, we identify the physical foundations of the theory as being the novel isodual Galilean, special and general relativities, and we show the compatibility of the theory with all available classical experimental data on antimatter. We identify the classical foundations of the prediction of antigravity for antimatter in the field of matter (or vice-versa) without any claim on its validity, and defer its resolution to specifically identified experiments. We identify the novel, classical, isodual electromagnetic waves which are predicted to be emitted by antimatter, the so-called space-time machine based on a novel non-Newtonian geometric propulsion, and other implications of the theory. We also introduce, apparently for the first time, the isodual space and time inversions and show that they are nontrivially different than the conventional ones, thus

  16. Predicting photoemission intensities and angular distributions with real-time density-functional theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dauth, M.; Kümmel, S.

    2016-02-01

    Photoemission spectroscopy is one of the most frequently used tools for characterizing the electronic structure of condensed matter systems. We discuss a scheme for simulating photoemission from finite systems based on time-dependent density-functional theory. It allows for the first-principles calculation of relative electron binding energies, ionization cross sections, and anisotropy parameters. We extract these photoemission spectroscopy observables from Kohn-Sham orbitals propagated in real time. We demonstrate that the approach is capable of estimating photoemission intensities, i.e., peak heights. It can also reliably predict the angular distribution of photoelectrons. For the example of benzene we contrast calculated angular distribution anisotropy parameters to experimental reference data. Self-interaction free Kohn-Sham theory yields meaningful outer valence single-particle states in the right energetic order. We discuss how to properly choose the complex absorbing potential that is used in the simulations.

  17. Minority Transportation Expenditure Allocation Model

    SciTech Connect

    Vyas, Anant D.; Santini, Danilo J.; Marik, Sheri K.

    1993-04-12

    MITRAM (Minority TRansportation expenditure Allocation Model) can project various transportation related attributes of minority (Black and Hispanic) and majority (white) populations. The model projects vehicle ownership, vehicle miles of travel, workers, new car and on-road fleet fuel economy, amount and share of household income spent on gasoline, and household expenditures on public transportation and taxis. MITRAM predicts reactions to sustained fuel price changes for up to 10 years after the change.

  18. A Rapid Distortion Theory modified turbulence spectra for semi-analytical airfoil noise prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santana, Leandro D.; Christophe, Julien; Schram, Christophe; Desmet, Wim

    2016-11-01

    This paper proposes an implementation of the Rapid Distortion Theory, for the prediction of the noise resulting from the interaction of an airfoil with incoming turbulence. In the framework of the semi-analytical modeling strategy known as Amiet's theory, this interaction mechanism is treated in a linearized form where the airfoil thickness, camber and angle of attack are assumed negligible, leading to a frozen turbulence description of the incident gust. Important semi-analytical developments have been proposed in the literature to improve the modeling of the gust-airfoil interaction accounting for parallel and skewed gusts, non-rectangular linearized airfoil shapes or blade tip effects. This work is rather focused on the investigation of the distortion of turbulence that occurs in the vicinity of the airfoil leading edge, compared with Rapid Distortion Theory, where main results are briefly reminded in this paper. The main contribution of this work is a detailed experimental investigation of the evolution of turbulent quantities relevant to noise production, performed in the close vicinity of the airfoil leading edge subjected to grid turbulence, by means of stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry measurements. The results indicate that the distortion effects are concentrated in a narrow region close to the stagnation point of the leading edge, with dimension of the order of its radius of curvature. Additionally, it is shown that the turbulence intensity grows significantly as the flow approaches the airfoil leading-edge. Based on those results, a modified turbulence spectrum is proposed to describe the incoming turbulence in Amiet's theory. The sound predictions show a significantly better match with acoustic measurements than using the original turbulence model.

  19. Identity and the theory of planned behavior: predicting maintenance of volunteering after three years.

    PubMed

    Marta, Elena; Manzi, Claudia; Pozzi, Maura; Vignoles, Vivian Laurance

    2014-01-01

    Is identity an important predictor of social behavior? The present longitudinal study is focused on identity in order to understand why people continue to volunteer over an extended period of time. The theory of planned behavior and the role identity model of volunteering are used as theoretical framework. Two hundred thirty Italian volunteers were sampled and followed for 3 years. We analyzed functions of role identity as a volunteer. Results showed a significant impact of role identity in predicting volunteer performance after 3 years, mediated through behavioral intentions. Role identity fully mediated the relationships between behavioral intention and attitude, social norms, past behavior and parental modelling.

  20. Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

    1978-01-01

    On physical grounds it is suggested that the polar field strength of the sun near a solar minimum is closely related to the solar activity of the following cycle. Four methods of estimating the polar magnetic field strength of the sun near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of the yearly mean sunspot number of cycle 21 at solar maximum of 140 + or - 20. This estimate may be considered a first-order attempt to predict the cycle activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.

  1. BIS, BAS, and response conflict: Testing predictions of the revised reinforcement sensitivity theory.

    PubMed

    Berkman, Elliot T; Lieberman, Matthew D; Gable, Shelly L

    2009-01-01

    Gray's (1970) reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST) was recently updated (Gray & McNaughton, 2000), but the changes have not received extensive empirical validation. The study tests three novel predictions of the revised RST. First, the behavioral activation system (BAS) is expected to be sensitive to both conditioned and unconditioned incentives. Second, the behavioral inhibition system (BIS) is expected to be sensitive to conflicting incentives such as between unconditioned and conditioned stimuli, and not to avoidance responses or aversive stimuli alone. Third, during approach-avoidance conflicts only, BAS is expected to moderate BIS responses to conflict such that individuals with high BAS show the strongest effect of BIS. In order to test these hypotheses, we developed a novel incentive task that crosses approach/avoidance conditioned responses to appetitive/aversive unconditioned stimuli. Conflict between unconditioned and conditioned stimuli occurred on the approach-aversive and avoid-appetitive trials. Results confirm the predictions and provide support for the revised RST.

  2. Comparison of kinetic theory predictions with experimental results for a vibrated three-dimensional granular bed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viswanathan, H.; Wildman, R. D.; Huntley, J. M.; Martin, T. W.

    2006-11-01

    The three-dimensional conservation equations relating energy and momentum transfer in a vibrated three-dimensional granular bed have been solved numerically by the finite element method. Two closures based on granular kinetic theory were used: one, the standard Fourier law relating heat flux to temperature gradient and the other, including an additional concentration gradient term. Each prediction of the two-dimensional axisymmetric granular temperature and packing fraction fields was compared against a one-dimensional model and three-dimensional experimental results, acquired using the technique of positron emission particle tracking. Both closures resulted in solutions that were in reasonable agreement with the experimental results, but it was found that differences between the predictions of each of the closures were relatively small in comparison to the anisotropy of the experimentally determined temperature distribution.

  3. Dissolved oxygen prediction using a possibility theory based fuzzy neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Usman T.; Valeo, Caterina

    2016-06-01

    A new fuzzy neural network method to predict minimum dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in a highly urbanised riverine environment (in Calgary, Canada) is proposed. The method uses abiotic factors (non-living, physical and chemical attributes) as inputs to the model, since the physical mechanisms governing DO in the river are largely unknown. A new two-step method to construct fuzzy numbers using observations is proposed. Then an existing fuzzy neural network is modified to account for fuzzy number inputs and also uses possibility theory based intervals to train the network. Results demonstrate that the method is particularly well suited to predicting low DO events in the Bow River. Model performance is compared with a fuzzy neural network with crisp inputs, as well as with a traditional neural network. Model output and a defuzzification technique are used to estimate the risk of low DO so that water resource managers can implement strategies to prevent the occurrence of low DO.

  4. Dissolved oxygen prediction using a possibility-theory based fuzzy neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, U. T.; Valeo, C.

    2015-11-01

    A new fuzzy neural network method to predict minimum dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in a highly urbanised riverine environment (in Calgary, Canada) is proposed. The method uses abiotic (non-living, physical and chemical attributes) as inputs to the model, since the physical mechanisms governing DO in the river are largely unknown. A new two-step method to construct fuzzy numbers using observations is proposed. Then an existing fuzzy neural network is modified to account for fuzzy number inputs and also uses possibility-theory based intervals to train the network. Results demonstrate that the method is particularly well suited to predict low DO events in the Bow River. Model output and a defuzzification technique is used to estimate the risk of low DO so that water resource managers can implement strategies to prevent the occurrence of low DO.

  5. Using the theory of planned behaviour to predict observed driving behaviour.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Mark A; Armitage, Christopher J; Baughan, Christopher J

    2007-03-01

    The ability of psychosocial variables to predict driver behaviour was tested using the theory of planned behaviour (TPB; I. Ajzen, 1985) as a theoretical framework. At Time 1, participants (N=150) completed questionnaire measures of TPB variables. 1 week later, participants' behaviour was assessed using both self-reports and observations of driving speed derived from a high-fidelity driving simulator. Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that: (a) the TPB was a strong predictor of drivers' intentions and self-reported speeding behaviour, and (b) intention was the sole predictor of observed speeding behaviour. Standard and repeated events survival analyses showed that intention also predicted the maintenance of drivers' compliance with speed limits. The discussion focuses on the TPB's relationships with observed and self-reported behaviour, and the implications for designing interventions. PMID:17355719

  6. Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco; Lunkeit, Frank

    2016-04-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(10^5 ) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO_2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  7. Predicting Mexican youths' intention to engage in risky behaviors: applying moral norms to the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Leon, Nellie; Modeste, Naomi; Lee, Jerry

    This study explored if moral norms as applied to the theory of planned behavior (TPB) account for additional variance in predicting intention to consume alcohol, smoke cigarettes, and engage in sexual activity among youth at a high school in Mexico. Additionally, it investigated if moral norms provide a moderating influence on the constructs of the theory: attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control for prediction of risky behavior intention. Multiple regression analyses identified predictive power of constructs; interactions of moral norms with the theory constructs were studied. Moral norms only significantly predicted sexual activity. Significant interactions were found between moral norms and the theory constructs for the three behaviors. Interventions aimed at preventing risky conduct among youth would benefit from strategies targeting beliefs in the moral order, especially because of its interaction with the other theoretical mechanisms.

  8. Investigation of the Jet Noise Prediction Theory and Application Utilizing the PAO Formulation. [mathematical model for calculating noise radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1973-01-01

    Application of the Phillips theory to engineering calculations of rocket and high speed jet noise radiation is reported. Presented are a detailed derivation of the theory, the composition of the numerical scheme, and discussions of the practical problems arising in the application of the present noise prediction method. The present method still contains some empirical elements, yet it provides a unified approach in the prediction of sound power, spectrum, and directivity.

  9. Chiral effective field theory predictions for muon capture on deuteron and $^3$He

    SciTech Connect

    Laura E. Marcucci, A. Kievsky, S. Rosati, R. Schiavilla, M. Viviani

    2012-01-01

    The muon-capture reactions {sup 2}H({mu}{sup -}, {nu}{sub {mu}})nn and {sup 3}He({mu}{sup -},{nu}{sub {mu}}){sup 3}H are studied with nuclear strong-interaction potentials and charge-changing weak currents, derived in chiral effective field theory. The low-energy constants (LEC's) c{sub D} and c{sub E}, present in the three-nucleon potential and (c{sub D}) axial-vector current, are constrained to reproduce the A=3 binding energies and the triton Gamow-Teller matrix element. The vector weak current is related to the isovector component of the electromagnetic current via the conserved-vector-current constraint, and the two LEC's entering the contact terms in the latter are constrained to reproduce the A=3 magnetic moments. The muon capture rates on deuteron and {sup 3}He are predicted to be 399 {+-} 3 sec{sup -1} and 1494 {+-} 21 sec{sup -1}, respectively, where the spread accounts for the cutoff sensitivity as well as uncertainties in the LEC's and electroweak radiative corrections. By comparing the calculated and precisely measured rates on {sup 3}He, a value for the induced pseudoscalar form factor is obtained in good agreement with the chiral perturbation theory prediction.

  10. Predicting Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Spanish Youth with the Theory of Reasoned Action.

    PubMed

    Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia

    2015-06-19

    Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p < .01). The study confirms that alcohol use and driving under the influence of alcohol are highly prevalent in Spanish young people, and some gender differences exist in these behaviors (p < .01). Furthermore, the study confirms the validity of theory of reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs.

  11. Toward a predictive theory of risk effects: hypotheses for prey attributes and compensatory mortality.

    PubMed

    Creel, Scott

    2011-12-01

    Risk effects, or the costs of antipredator behavior, can comprise a large proportion of the total effect of predators on their prey. While empirical studies are accumulating to demonstrate the importance of risk effects, there is no general theory that predicts the relative importance of risk effects and direct predation. Working toward this general theory, it has been shown that functional traits of predators (e.g., hunting modes) help to predict the importance of risk effects for ecosystem function. Here, I note that attributes of the predator, the prey, and the environment are all important in determining the strength of antipredator responses, and I develop hypotheses for the ways that prey functional traits might influence the magnitude of risk effects. In particular, I consider the following attributes of prey: group size and dilution of direct predation risk, the degree of foraging specialization, body mass, and the degree to which direct predation is additive vs. compensatory. Strong tests of these hypotheses will require continued development of methods to identify and quantify the fitness costs of antipredator responses in wild populations.

  12. Predicting Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Spanish Youth with the Theory of Reasoned Action.

    PubMed

    Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia

    2015-01-01

    Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p < .01). The study confirms that alcohol use and driving under the influence of alcohol are highly prevalent in Spanish young people, and some gender differences exist in these behaviors (p < .01). Furthermore, the study confirms the validity of theory of reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs. PMID:26087814

  13. Chiral effective field theory predictions for muon capture on deuteron and {3}He.

    PubMed

    Marcucci, L E; Kievsky, A; Rosati, S; Schiavilla, R; Viviani, M

    2012-02-01

    The muon-capture reactions {2}H(μ{-},ν{μ})nn and {3}He(μ{-},ν{μ}){3}H are studied with nuclear potentials and charge-changing weak currents, derived in chiral effective field theory. The low-energy constants (LECs) c{D} and c{E}, present in the three-nucleon potential and (c{D}) axial-vector current, are constrained to reproduce the A=3 binding energies and the triton Gamow-Teller matrix element. The muon-capture rates on deuteron and {3}He are predicted to be 399±3  sec{-1} and 1494±21  sec{-1}, respectively. The spread accounts for the cutoff sensitivity, as well as uncertainties in the LECs and electroweak radiative corrections. By comparing the calculated and precisely measured rates on {3}He, a value for the induced pseudoscalar form factor is obtained in good agreement with the chiral perturbation theory prediction. PMID:22400928

  14. Efficient Coding Theory Predicts a Tilt Aftereffect from Viewing Untilted Patterns.

    PubMed

    May, Keith A; Zhaoping, Li

    2016-06-20

    The brain is bombarded with a continuous stream of sensory information, but biological limitations on the data-transmission rate require this information to be encoded very efficiently [1]. Li and Atick [2] proposed that the two eyes' signals are coded efficiently in the brain using mutually decorrelated binocular summation and differencing channels; when a channel is strongly stimulated by the visual input, such that sensory noise is negligible, the channel should undergo temporary desensitization (known as adaptation). To date, the evidence for this theory has been limited [3, 4], and the binocular differencing channel is missing from many models of binocular integration [5-10]. Li and Atick's theory makes the remarkable prediction that perceived direction of tilt (clockwise or counterclockwise) of a test pattern can be controlled by pre-exposing observers to visual adaptation patterns that are untilted or even have no orientation signal. Here, we confirm this prediction. Each test pattern consisted of different images presented to the two eyes such that the binocular summation and difference signals were tilted in opposite directions, to give ambiguous information about tilt; by selectively desensitizing one or other of the binocular channels using untilted or non-oriented binocular adaptation patterns, we controlled the perceived tilt of the test pattern. Our results provide compelling evidence that the brain contains binocular summation and differencing channels that adapt to the prevailing binocular statistics.

  15. Performance Feedback Processing Is Positively Biased As Predicted by Attribution Theory.

    PubMed

    Korn, Christoph W; Rosenblau, Gabriela; Rodriguez Buritica, Julia M; Heekeren, Hauke R

    2016-01-01

    A considerable literature on attribution theory has shown that healthy individuals exhibit a positivity bias when inferring the causes of evaluative feedback on their performance. They tend to attribute positive feedback internally (e.g., to their own abilities) but negative feedback externally (e.g., to environmental factors). However, all empirical demonstrations of this bias suffer from at least one of the three following drawbacks: First, participants directly judge explicit causes for their performance. Second, participants have to imagine events instead of experiencing them. Third, participants assess their performance only after receiving feedback and thus differences in baseline assessments cannot be excluded. It is therefore unclear whether the classically reported positivity bias generalizes to setups without these drawbacks. Here, we aimed at establishing the relevance of attributions for decision-making by showing an attribution-related positivity bias in a decision-making task. We developed a novel task, which allowed us to test how participants changed their evaluations in response to positive and negative feedback about performance. Specifically, we used videos of actors expressing different facial emotional expressions. Participants were first asked to evaluate the actors' credibility in expressing a particular emotion. After this initial rating, participants performed an emotion recognition task and did--or did not--receive feedback on their veridical performance. Finally, participants re-rated the actors' credibility, which provided a measure of how they changed their evaluations after feedback. Attribution theory predicts that participants change their evaluations of the actors' credibility toward the positive after receiving positive performance feedback and toward the negative after negative performance feedback. Our results were in line with this prediction. A control condition without feedback showed that correct or incorrect performance

  16. Performance Feedback Processing Is Positively Biased As Predicted by Attribution Theory

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez Buritica, Julia M.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2016-01-01

    A considerable literature on attribution theory has shown that healthy individuals exhibit a positivity bias when inferring the causes of evaluative feedback on their performance. They tend to attribute positive feedback internally (e.g., to their own abilities) but negative feedback externally (e.g., to environmental factors). However, all empirical demonstrations of this bias suffer from at least one of the three following drawbacks: First, participants directly judge explicit causes for their performance. Second, participants have to imagine events instead of experiencing them. Third, participants assess their performance only after receiving feedback and thus differences in baseline assessments cannot be excluded. It is therefore unclear whether the classically reported positivity bias generalizes to setups without these drawbacks. Here, we aimed at establishing the relevance of attributions for decision-making by showing an attribution-related positivity bias in a decision-making task. We developed a novel task, which allowed us to test how participants changed their evaluations in response to positive and negative feedback about performance. Specifically, we used videos of actors expressing different facial emotional expressions. Participants were first asked to evaluate the actors’ credibility in expressing a particular emotion. After this initial rating, participants performed an emotion recognition task and did—or did not—receive feedback on their veridical performance. Finally, participants re-rated the actors’ credibility, which provided a measure of how they changed their evaluations after feedback. Attribution theory predicts that participants change their evaluations of the actors’ credibility toward the positive after receiving positive performance feedback and toward the negative after negative performance feedback. Our results were in line with this prediction. A control condition without feedback showed that correct or incorrect

  17. Cloud Condensation Nuclei Prediction Error from Application of Kohler Theory: Importance for the Aerosol Indirect Effect

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni P.; Nenes, Athanasios; Adams, Peter J.; Seinfeld, John H.

    2007-01-01

    In situ observations of aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the GISS GCM Model II' with an online aerosol simulation and explicit aerosol-cloud interactions are used to quantify the uncertainty in radiative forcing and autoconversion rate from application of Kohler theory. Simulations suggest that application of Koehler theory introduces a 10-20% uncertainty in global average indirect forcing and 2-11% uncertainty in autoconversion. Regionally, the uncertainty in indirect forcing ranges between 10-20%, and 5-50% for autoconversion. These results are insensitive to the range of updraft velocity and water vapor uptake coefficient considered. This study suggests that Koehler theory (as implemented in climate models) is not a significant source of uncertainty for aerosol indirect forcing but can be substantial for assessments of aerosol effects on the hydrological cycle in climatically sensitive regions of the globe. This implies that improvements in the representation of GCM subgrid processes and aerosol size distribution will mostly benefit indirect forcing assessments. Predictions of autoconversion, by nature, will be subject to considerable uncertainty; its reduction may require explicit representation of size-resolved aerosol composition and mixing state.

  18. Internally directed cognition and mindfulness: an integrative perspective derived from predictive and reactive control systems theory

    PubMed Central

    Tops, Mattie; Boksem, Maarten A. S.; Quirin, Markus; IJzerman, Hans; Koole, Sander L.

    2013-01-01

    In the present paper, we will apply the predictive and reactive control systems (PARCS) theory as a framework that integrates competing theories of neural substrates of awareness by describing the “default mode network” (DMN) and anterior insula (AI) as parts of two different behavioral and homeostatic control systems. The DMN, a network that becomes active at rest when there is no external stimulation or task to perform, has been implicated in self-reflective awareness and prospection. By contrast, the AI is associated with awareness and task-related attention. This has led to competing theories stressing the role of the DMN in self-awareness vs. the role of interoceptive and emotional information integration in the AI in awareness of the emotional moment. In PARCS, the respective functions of the DMN and AI in a specific control system explains their association with different qualities of awareness, and how mental states can shift from one state (e.g., prospective self-reflection) to the other (e.g., awareness of the emotional moment) depending on the relative dominance of control systems. These shifts between reactive and predictive control are part of processes that enable the intake of novel information, integration of this novel information within existing knowledge structures, and the creation of a continuous personal context in which novel information can be integrated and understood. As such, PARCS can explain key characteristics of mental states, such as their temporal and spatial focus (e.g., a focus on the here and now vs. the future; a first person vs. a third person perspective). PARCS further relates mental states to brain states and functions, such as activation of the DMN or hemispheric asymmetry in frontal cortical functions. Together, PARCS deepens the understanding of a broad range of mental states, including mindfulness, mind wandering, rumination, autobiographical memory, imagery, and the experience of self. PMID:24904455

  19. Clinical application of fluctuation dissipation theory - Prediction of heart rate response to spontaneous breathing trial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niestemski, Liang R.; Chen, Man; Prevost, Robert; McRae, Michael; Cholleti, Sharath; Najarro, Gabriel; Buchman, Timothy G.; Deem, Michael W.

    2013-03-01

    Contrary to the traditional view of the healthy physiological state as being a single static state, variation in physiologic variables has more recently been suggested to be a key component of the healthy state. Indeed, aging and disease are characterized by a loss of such variability. We apply the conceptual framework of fluctuation-dissipation theory (FDT) to predict the response to a common clinical intervention from historical fluctuations in physiologic time series data. The non-equilibrium FDT relates the response of a system to a perturbation to natural fluctuations in the stationary state of the system. We seek to understand with the FDT a common clinical perturbation, the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT), in which mechanical ventilation is briefly suspended while the patient breathes freely for a period of time. As a stress upon the heart of the patient, the SBT can be characterized as a perturbation of heart rate dynamics. A non-equilibrium, but steady-state FDT allows us to predict the heart rate recovery after the SBT stress. We show that the responses of groups of similar patients to the spontaneous breathing trial can be predicted by this approach. This mathematical framework may serve as part of the basis for personalized critical care.

  20. Incorporating Communication into the Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict Condom Use Among African American Women.

    PubMed

    Guan, Mengfei; Coles, Valerie B; Samp, Jennifer A; Sales, Jessica McDermott; DiClemente, Ralph J; Monahan, Jennifer L

    2016-09-01

    The present research extends the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to investigate how communication-related variables influence condom use intention and behavior among African American women. According to the TPB, attitudes, subjective norms, and self-efficacy are associated with behavioral intent, which predicts behavior. For women, it was argued that condom negotiation self-efficacy was more important than condom use self-efficacy in predicting consistent condom use. Moreover, an important environmental factor that affects condom use for African American women is fear or worry when negotiating condom use because the sex partners might leave, threaten, or abuse them. Fears associated with negotiating condom use were predicted to be negatively associated with attitudes, subjective norms, and self-efficacy. African American women (N = 560; M age = 20.58) completed assessments of TPB variables at baseline and condom use 3 months later. Condom negotiation self-efficacy was a significant indicator of behavioral intent, while condom use self-efficacy was not. Fear of condom negotiation was negatively associated with all TPB components, which was in turn significantly associated with behavioral intent and condom use. Implications for the TPB, safer sex literature, and sexually transmitted infection prevention intervention design are discussed.

  1. Executive function and theory of mind: Predictive relations from ages 2 to 4.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Claire; Ensor, Rosie

    2007-11-01

    Despite robust associations between children's theory of mind (ToM) and executive function (EF) skills, longitudinal studies examining this association remain scarce. In a socially diverse sample of 122 children (seen at ages 2, 3, and 4), this study examined (a) developmental stability of associations between ToM, EF, verbal ability, and social disadvantage; (b) continuity and change in ToM and EF; and (c) predictive relations between ToM and EF. Verbal ability and social disadvantage independently predicted changes in EF (but not ToM). Task scores improved with age and showed stable individual differences. The authors examined predictive relations between ToM and EF using partial correlations (controlling for age and verbal ability) and hierarchical regressions (that also controlled for social disadvantage and initial ToM and EF). The findings provide only partial support for the view that ToM is a prerequisite for EF but stronger support for the proposal that EF facilitates children's performance on ToM tasks.

  2. Entanglement model of homeopathy as an example of generalized entanglement predicted by weak quantum theory.

    PubMed

    Walach, H

    2003-08-01

    Homeopathy is scientifically banned, both for lack of consistent empirical findings, but more so for lack of a sound theoretical model to explain its purported effects. This paper makes an attempt to introduce an explanatory idea based on a generalized version of quantum mechanics (QM), the weak quantum theory (WQT). WQT uses the algebraic formalism of QM proper, but drops some restrictions and definitions typical for QM. This results in a general axiomatic framework similar to QM, but more generalized and applicable to all possible systems. Most notably, WQT predicts entanglement, which in QM is known as Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) correlatedness within quantum systems. According to WQT, this entanglement is not only tied to quantum systems, but is to be expected whenever a global and a local variable describing a system are complementary. This idea is used here to reconstruct homeopathy as an exemplification of generalized entanglement as predicted by WQT. It transpires that homeopathy uses two instances of generalized entanglement: one between the remedy and the original substance (potentiation principle) and one between the individual symptoms of a patient and the general symptoms of a remedy picture (similarity principle). By bringing these two elements together, double entanglement ensues, which is reminiscent of cryptographic and teleportation applications of entanglement in QM proper. Homeopathy could be a macroscopic analogue to quantum teleportation. This model is exemplified and some predictions are derived, which make it possible to test the model. PMID:12972724

  3. Incorporating Communication into the Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict Condom Use Among African American Women.

    PubMed

    Guan, Mengfei; Coles, Valerie B; Samp, Jennifer A; Sales, Jessica McDermott; DiClemente, Ralph J; Monahan, Jennifer L

    2016-09-01

    The present research extends the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to investigate how communication-related variables influence condom use intention and behavior among African American women. According to the TPB, attitudes, subjective norms, and self-efficacy are associated with behavioral intent, which predicts behavior. For women, it was argued that condom negotiation self-efficacy was more important than condom use self-efficacy in predicting consistent condom use. Moreover, an important environmental factor that affects condom use for African American women is fear or worry when negotiating condom use because the sex partners might leave, threaten, or abuse them. Fears associated with negotiating condom use were predicted to be negatively associated with attitudes, subjective norms, and self-efficacy. African American women (N = 560; M age = 20.58) completed assessments of TPB variables at baseline and condom use 3 months later. Condom negotiation self-efficacy was a significant indicator of behavioral intent, while condom use self-efficacy was not. Fear of condom negotiation was negatively associated with all TPB components, which was in turn significantly associated with behavioral intent and condom use. Implications for the TPB, safer sex literature, and sexually transmitted infection prevention intervention design are discussed. PMID:27565192

  4. Undergraduates' intentions to take a second language proficiency test: a comparison of predictions from the theory of planned behavior and social cognitive theory.

    PubMed

    Lin, Bih-Jiau; Chiou, Wen-Bin

    2010-06-01

    English competency has become essential for obtaining a better job or succeeding in higher education in Taiwan. Thus, passing the General English Proficiency Test is important for college students in Taiwan. The current study applied Ajzen's theory of planned behavior and the notions of outcome expectancy and self-efficacy from Bandura's social cognitive theory to investigate college students' intentions to take the General English Proficiency Test. The formal sample consisted of 425 undergraduates (217 women, 208 men; M age = 19.5 yr., SD = 1.3). The theory of planned behavior showed greater predictive ability (R2 = 33%) of intention than the social cognitive theory (R2 = 7%) in regression analysis and made a unique contribution to prediction of actual test-taking behavior one year later in logistic regression. Within-model analyses indicated that subjective norm in theory of planned behavior and outcome expectancy in social cognitive theory are crucial factors in predicting intention. Implications for enhancing undergraduates' intentions to take the English proficiency test are discussed.

  5. Prediction of global vapor-liquid equilibria for mixtures containing polar and associating components with improved renormalization group theory.

    PubMed

    Mi, Jianguo; Tang, Yiping; Zhong, Chongli; Li, Yi-Gui

    2005-11-01

    Our recently improved renormalization group (RG) theory is further reformulated within the context of density functional theory. To improve the theory for polar and associating fluids, an explicit and complete expression of the theory is derived in which the density fluctuation is expanded up to the third-order term instead of the original second-order term. A new predictive equation of state based on the first-order mean spherical approximation statistical associating fluid theory (FMSA-SAFT) and the newly improved RG theory is proposed for systems containing polar and associating fluids. The calculated results for both pure fluids and mixtures are in good agreement with experimental data both inside and outside the critical region. This work demonstrates that the RG theory incorporated with the solution of FMSA is a promising route for accurately describing the global phase behavior of complex fluids and mixtures.

  6. Significance of vapor phase chemical reactions on CVD rates predicted by chemically frozen and local thermochemical equilibrium boundary layer theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gokoglu, Suleyman A.

    1988-01-01

    This paper investigates the role played by vapor-phase chemical reactions on CVD rates by comparing the results of two extreme theories developed to predict CVD mass transport rates in the absence of interfacial kinetic barrier: one based on chemically frozen boundary layer and the other based on local thermochemical equilibrium. Both theories consider laminar convective-diffusion boundary layers at high Reynolds numbers and include thermal (Soret) diffusion and variable property effects. As an example, Na2SO4 deposition was studied. It was found that gas phase reactions have no important role on Na2SO4 deposition rates and on the predictions of the theories. The implications of the predictions of the two theories to other CVD systems are discussed.

  7. The role of descriptive norm within the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean Americans' exercise behavior.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hyo

    2011-08-01

    There are few studies investigating psychosocial mechanisms in Korean Americans' exercise behavior. The present study tested the usefulness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean American's exercise behavior and whether the descriptive norm (i.e., perceptions of what others do) improved the predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior. Using a retrospective design and self-report measures, web-survey responses from 198 Korean-American adults were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses. The theory of planned behavior constructs accounted for 31% of exercise behavior and 43% of exercise intention. Intention and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of exercise behavior. Although the descriptive norm did not augment the theory of planned behavior, all original constructs--attitude, injunctive norm (a narrow definition of subjective norm), and perceived behavioral control--statistically significantly predicted leisure-time physical activity intention. Future studies should consider random sampling, prospective design, and objective measures of physical activity.

  8. The predictive capacity of the theory of reasoned action and the theory of planned behavior in exercise research: an integrated literature review.

    PubMed

    Blue, C L

    1995-04-01

    Although the association between habitual exercise and health benefits has been well documented, physical activity levels in the United States are lower than is necessary to reach the nation's health potential. Beliefs that people hold can be a motivating factor in engaging in exercise. A critical review of the literature was conducted to assess the efficacy of using the Theory of Reasoned Action and the Theory of Planned Behavior with respect to exercise. Evidence for the predictive utility of the theories was found. The Theory of Planned Behavior is a more promising framework for the study of exercise because it includes beliefs about control of factors that would facilitate or inhibit carrying out exercise. Strategies for use of the theories in planning exercise programs are provided and suggestions for future research discussed.

  9. A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory.

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, J. D.; Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Storlie, Curtis B. (North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC)

    2006-10-01

    Evidence theory provides an alternative to probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions that derives from epistemic uncertainty in model inputs, where the descriptor epistemic is used to indicate uncertainty that derives from a lack of knowledge with respect to the appropriate values to use for various inputs to the model. The potential benefit, and hence appeal, of evidence theory is that it allows a less restrictive specification of uncertainty than is possible within the axiomatic structure on which probability theory is based. Unfortunately, the propagation of an evidence theory representation for uncertainty through a model is more computationally demanding than the propagation of a probabilistic representation for uncertainty, with this difficulty constituting a serious obstacle to the use of evidence theory in the representation of uncertainty in predictions obtained from computationally intensive models. This presentation describes and illustrates a sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory. Preliminary trials indicate that the presented strategy can be used to propagate uncertainty representations based on evidence theory in analysis situations where naive sampling-based (i.e., unsophisticated Monte Carlo) procedures are impracticable due to computational cost.

  10. Long-term prediction test procedure for most ICs, based on linear response theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litovchenko, V.; Ivakhnenko, I.

    1991-01-01

    Experimentally, thermal annealing is known to be a factor which enables a number of different integrated circuits (IC's) to recover their operating characteristics after suffering radiation damage in the space radiation environment; thus, decreasing and limiting long term cumulative total-dose effects. This annealing is also known to be accelerated at elevated temperatures both during and after irradiation. Linear response theory (LRT) was applied, and a linear response function (LRF) to predict the radiation/annealing response of sensitive parameters of IC's for long term (several months or years) exposure to the space radiation environment were constructed. Compressing the annealing process from several years in orbit to just a few hours or days in the laboratory is achieved by subjecting the IC to elevated temperatures or by increasing the typical spaceflight dose rate by several orders of magnitude for simultaneous radiation/annealing only. The accomplishments are as follows: (1) the test procedure to make predictions of the radiation response was developed; (2) the calculation of the shift in the threshold potential due to the charge distribution in the oxide was written; (3) electron tunneling processes from the bulk Si to the oxide region in an MOS IC were estimated; (4) in order to connect the experimental annealing data to the theoretical model, constants of the model of the basic annealing process were established; (5) experimental data obtained at elevated temperatures were analyzed; (6) time compression and reliability of predictions for the long term region were shown; (7) a method to compress test time and to make predictions of response for the nonlinear region was proposed; and (8) nonlinearity of the LRF with respect to log(t) was calculated theoretically from a model.

  11. Superpartners at LHC and future colliders: predictions from constrained compactified M-theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, Sebastian A. R.; Kane, Gordon L.; Zheng, Bob

    2015-07-01

    We study a realistic top-down M-theory compactification with low-scale effective Supersymmetry, consistent with phenomenological constraints. A combination of top-down and generic phenomenological constraints fix the spectrum. Three and only three superpartner channels, , χ {2/0} χ {1/±} and χ {1/+} χ {1/-} (where χ {2/0} , χ {1/±} are Wino-like), are expected to be observable at LHC-14. We also investigate the prospects of finding heavy squarks and Higgsinos at future colliders. Gluino-stop-top, gluino-sbottom-bottom associated production and first generation squark associated production should be observable at a 100 TeV collider, along with direct production of heavy Higgsinos. Within this framework the discovery of a single sparticle is sufficient to determine uniquely the SUSY spectrum, yielding a number of concrete testable predictions for LHC-14 and future colliders, and determination of M 3/2 and thereby other fundamental quantities.

  12. Geometric theory predicts bifurcations in minimal wiring cost trees in biology are flat.

    PubMed

    Kim, Yihwa; Sinclair, Robert; Chindapol, Nol; Kaandorp, Jaap A; De Schutter, Erik

    2012-01-01

    The complex three-dimensional shapes of tree-like structures in biology are constrained by optimization principles, but the actual costs being minimized can be difficult to discern. We show that despite quite variable morphologies and functions, bifurcations in the scleractinian coral Madracis and in many different mammalian neuron types tend to be planar. We prove that in fact bifurcations embedded in a spatial tree that minimizes wiring cost should lie on planes. This biologically motivated generalization of the classical mathematical theory of Euclidean Steiner trees is compatible with many different assumptions about the type of cost function. Since the geometric proof does not require any correlation between consecutive planes, we predict that, in an environment without directional biases, consecutive planes would be oriented independently of each other. We confirm this is true for many branching corals and neuron types. We conclude that planar bifurcations are characteristic of wiring cost optimization in any type of biological spatial tree structure.

  13. A predictive theory for elastic scattering and recoil of protons from 4He

    SciTech Connect

    Hupin, Guillaume; Quaglioni, Sofia; Navratil, Petr

    2014-12-08

    Low-energy cross sections for elastic scattering and recoil of protons from 4He nuclei (also known as α particles) are calculated directly by solving the Schrodinger equation for five nucleons interacting through accurate two- and three-nucleon forces derived within the framework of chiral effective field theory. Precise knowledge of these processes at various proton backscattering/recoil angles and energies is needed for the ion-beam analysis of numerous materials, from the surface layers of solids, to thin films, to fusion-reactor materials. Indeed, the same elastic scattering process, in two different kinematic configurations, can be used to probe the concentrations and depth profiles of either hydrogen or helium. Furthermore, we compare our results to available experimental data and show that direct calculations with modern nuclear potentials can help to resolve remaining inconsistencies among data sets and can be used to predict these cross sections when measurements are not available.

  14. Predictive models based on sensitivity theory and their application to practical shielding problems

    SciTech Connect

    Bhuiyan, S.I.; Roussin, R.W.; Lucius, J.L.; Bartine, D.E.

    1983-01-01

    Two new calculational models based on the use of cross-section sensitivity coefficients have been devised for calculating radiation transport in relatively simple shields. The two models, one an exponential model and the other a power model, have been applied, together with the traditional linear model, to 1- and 2-m-thick concrete-slab problems in which the water content, reinforcing-steel content, or composition of the concrete was varied. Comparing the results obtained with the three models with those obtained from exact one-dimensional discrete-ordinates transport calculations indicates that the exponential model, named the BEST model (for basic exponential shielding trend), is a particularly promising predictive tool for shielding problems dominated by exponential attenuation. When applied to a deep-penetration sodium problem, the BEST model also yields better results than do calculations based on second-order sensitivity theory.

  15. A predictive theory for elastic scattering and recoil of protons from 4He

    DOE PAGES

    Hupin, Guillaume; Quaglioni, Sofia; Navratil, Petr

    2014-12-08

    Low-energy cross sections for elastic scattering and recoil of protons from 4He nuclei (also known as α particles) are calculated directly by solving the Schrodinger equation for five nucleons interacting through accurate two- and three-nucleon forces derived within the framework of chiral effective field theory. Precise knowledge of these processes at various proton backscattering/recoil angles and energies is needed for the ion-beam analysis of numerous materials, from the surface layers of solids, to thin films, to fusion-reactor materials. Indeed, the same elastic scattering process, in two different kinematic configurations, can be used to probe the concentrations and depth profiles ofmore » either hydrogen or helium. Furthermore, we compare our results to available experimental data and show that direct calculations with modern nuclear potentials can help to resolve remaining inconsistencies among data sets and can be used to predict these cross sections when measurements are not available.« less

  16. Expectancy theory prediction of the preference to remain employed or to retire.

    PubMed

    Eran, M; Jacobson, D

    1976-09-01

    Vroom's (1964) expectancy theory model was used to predict older workers' choices between continued employment or immediate retirement. It was hypothesized that a person's preference for one of the two alternatives would be a function of the differences between the instrumentality of employment and the instrumentality of retirement for the attainment of outcomes, multiplied by the valence of each outcome, summed over outcomes. To test this, 290 Israeli male workers, aged 57 to 64, were interviewed. Measures included: preference for employment or retirement; valences of 35 outcomes; perceived instrumentalities of employment and retirement. The results supported the hypothesis (R = .40; p less than .01). It is suggested that further research along these lines could equip organizations with a tool for assisting older employees in the transition to retirement or for encouraging those who are still capable of making a significant contribution to remain employed. PMID:950456

  17. Point-to-point connectivity prediction in porous media using percolation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavagh-Mohammadi, Behnam; Masihi, Mohsen; Ganjeh-Ghazvini, Mostafa

    2016-10-01

    The connectivity between two points in porous media is important for evaluating hydrocarbon recovery in underground reservoirs or toxic migration in waste disposal. For example, the connectivity between a producer and an injector in a hydrocarbon reservoir impact the fluid dispersion throughout the system. The conventional approach, flow simulation, is computationally very expensive and time consuming. Alternative method employs percolation theory. Classical percolation approach investigates the connectivity between two lines (representing the wells) in 2D cross sectional models whereas we look for the connectivity between two points (representing the wells) in 2D aerial models. In this study, site percolation is used to determine the fraction of permeable regions connected between two cells at various occupancy probabilities and system sizes. The master curves of mean connectivity and its uncertainty are then generated by finite size scaling. The results help to predict well-to-well connectivity without need to any further simulation.

  18. Expectancy theory prediction of the preference to remain employed or to retire.

    PubMed

    Eran, M; Jacobson, D

    1976-09-01

    Vroom's (1964) expectancy theory model was used to predict older workers' choices between continued employment or immediate retirement. It was hypothesized that a person's preference for one of the two alternatives would be a function of the differences between the instrumentality of employment and the instrumentality of retirement for the attainment of outcomes, multiplied by the valence of each outcome, summed over outcomes. To test this, 290 Israeli male workers, aged 57 to 64, were interviewed. Measures included: preference for employment or retirement; valences of 35 outcomes; perceived instrumentalities of employment and retirement. The results supported the hypothesis (R = .40; p less than .01). It is suggested that further research along these lines could equip organizations with a tool for assisting older employees in the transition to retirement or for encouraging those who are still capable of making a significant contribution to remain employed.

  19. Bifurcation of resistive wall mode dynamics predicted by magnetohydrodynamic-kinetic hybrid theory

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, S. X.; Wang, Z. X.; Wang, S.; Hao, G. Z. Song, X. M.; Wang, A. K.; Liu, Y. Q.

    2015-09-15

    The magnetohydrodynamic-kinetic hybrid theory has been extensively and successfully applied for interpreting experimental observations of macroscopic, low frequency instabilities, such as the resistive wall mode, in fusion plasmas. In this work, it is discovered that an analytic version of the hybrid formulation predicts a bifurcation of the mode dynamics while varying certain physical parameters of the plasma, such as the thermal particle collisionality or the ratio of the thermal ion to electron temperatures. This bifurcation can robustly occur under reasonably large parameter spaces as well as with different assumptions, for instance, on the particle collision model. Qualitatively similar bifurcation features are also observed in full toroidal computations presented in this work, based on a non-perturbative hybrid formulation.

  20. Rotational isomeric state theory applied to the stiffness prediction of an anion polymer electrolyte membrane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Fei; Weiland, Lisa Mauck; Kitchin, John

    2008-03-01

    While the acidic polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) Nafion has garnered considerable attention, the active response of basic PEMs offers another realm of potential applications. For instance, the basic PEM Selemion is currently being considered in the development of a CO II separation prototype device to be employed in coal power plant flue gas. The mechanical integrity of this material and subsequent effects in active response in this harsh environment will become important in prototype development. A multiscale modeling approach based on rotational isomeric state theory in combination with a Monte Carlo methodology may be employed to study mechanical integrity. The approach has the potential to be adapted to address property change of any PEM in the presence of foreign species (reinforcing or poisoning), as well as temperature and hydration variations. The conformational characteristics of the Selemion polymer chain and the cluster morphology in the polymer matrix are considered in the prediction of the stiffness of Selemion in specific states.

  1. A comparison of airborne wake vortex detection measurements with values predicted from potential theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, Eric C.

    1991-01-01

    An analysis of flight measurements made near a wake vortex was conducted to explore the feasibility of providing a pilot with useful wake avoidance information. The measurements were made with relatively low cost flow and motion sensors on a light airplane flying near the wake vortex of a turboprop airplane weighing approximately 90000 lbs. Algorithms were developed which removed the response of the airplane to control inputs from the total airplane response and produced parameters which were due solely to the flow field of the vortex. These parameters were compared with values predicted by potential theory. The results indicated that the presence of the vortex could be detected by a combination of parameters derived from the simple sensors. However, the location and strength of the vortex cannot be determined without additional and more accurate sensors.

  2. Metabolic theory and taxonomic identity predict nutrient recycling in a diverse food web.

    PubMed

    Allgeier, Jacob Edward; Wenger, Seth J; Rosemond, Amy D; Schindler, Daniel E; Layman, Craig A

    2015-05-19

    Reconciling the degree to which ecological processes are generalizable among taxa and ecosystems, or contingent on the identity of interacting species, remains a critical challenge in ecology. Ecological stoichiometry (EST) and metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) are theoretical approaches used to evaluate how consumers mediate nutrient dynamics and energy flow through ecosystems. Recent theoretical work has explored the utility of these theories, but empirical tests in species-rich ecological communities remain scarce. Here we use an unprecedented dataset collected from fishes and dominant invertebrates (n = 900) in a diverse subtropical coastal marine community (50 families, 72 genera, 102 species; body mass range: 0.04-2,597 g) to test the utility of EST and MTE in predicting excretion rates of nitrogen (E(N)), phosphorus (E(P)), and their ratio (E(NP)). Body mass explained a large amount of the variation in EN and EP but not E(NP). Strong evidence in support of the MTE 3/4 allometric scaling coefficient was found for E(P), and for E(N) only after accounting for variation in excretion rates among taxa. In all cases, including taxonomy in models substantially improved model performance, highlighting the importance of species identity for this ecosystem function. Body nutrient content and trophic position explained little of the variation in E(N), E(P), or E(NP), indicating limited applicability of basic predictors of EST. These results highlight the overriding importance of MTE for predicting nutrient flow through organisms, but emphasize that these relationships still fall short of explaining the unique effects certain species can have on ecological processes. PMID:25877152

  3. Metabolic theory and taxonomic identity predict nutrient recycling in a diverse food web.

    PubMed

    Allgeier, Jacob Edward; Wenger, Seth J; Rosemond, Amy D; Schindler, Daniel E; Layman, Craig A

    2015-05-19

    Reconciling the degree to which ecological processes are generalizable among taxa and ecosystems, or contingent on the identity of interacting species, remains a critical challenge in ecology. Ecological stoichiometry (EST) and metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) are theoretical approaches used to evaluate how consumers mediate nutrient dynamics and energy flow through ecosystems. Recent theoretical work has explored the utility of these theories, but empirical tests in species-rich ecological communities remain scarce. Here we use an unprecedented dataset collected from fishes and dominant invertebrates (n = 900) in a diverse subtropical coastal marine community (50 families, 72 genera, 102 species; body mass range: 0.04-2,597 g) to test the utility of EST and MTE in predicting excretion rates of nitrogen (E(N)), phosphorus (E(P)), and their ratio (E(NP)). Body mass explained a large amount of the variation in EN and EP but not E(NP). Strong evidence in support of the MTE 3/4 allometric scaling coefficient was found for E(P), and for E(N) only after accounting for variation in excretion rates among taxa. In all cases, including taxonomy in models substantially improved model performance, highlighting the importance of species identity for this ecosystem function. Body nutrient content and trophic position explained little of the variation in E(N), E(P), or E(NP), indicating limited applicability of basic predictors of EST. These results highlight the overriding importance of MTE for predicting nutrient flow through organisms, but emphasize that these relationships still fall short of explaining the unique effects certain species can have on ecological processes.

  4. Metabolic theory and taxonomic identity predict nutrient recycling in a diverse food web

    PubMed Central

    Allgeier, Jacob Edward; Wenger, Seth J.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Layman, Craig A.

    2015-01-01

    Reconciling the degree to which ecological processes are generalizable among taxa and ecosystems, or contingent on the identity of interacting species, remains a critical challenge in ecology. Ecological stoichiometry (EST) and metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) are theoretical approaches used to evaluate how consumers mediate nutrient dynamics and energy flow through ecosystems. Recent theoretical work has explored the utility of these theories, but empirical tests in species-rich ecological communities remain scarce. Here we use an unprecedented dataset collected from fishes and dominant invertebrates (n = 900) in a diverse subtropical coastal marine community (50 families, 72 genera, 102 species; body mass range: 0.04–2,597 g) to test the utility of EST and MTE in predicting excretion rates of nitrogen (EN), phosphorus (EP), and their ratio (ENP). Body mass explained a large amount of the variation in EN and EP but not ENP. Strong evidence in support of the MTE 3/4 allometric scaling coefficient was found for EP, and for EN only after accounting for variation in excretion rates among taxa. In all cases, including taxonomy in models substantially improved model performance, highlighting the importance of species identity for this ecosystem function. Body nutrient content and trophic position explained little of the variation in EN, EP, or ENP, indicating limited applicability of basic predictors of EST. These results highlight the overriding importance of MTE for predicting nutrient flow through organisms, but emphasize that these relationships still fall short of explaining the unique effects certain species can have on ecological processes. PMID:25877152

  5. Application of the protection motivation theory in predicting cigarette smoking among adolescents in China.

    PubMed

    Yan, Yaqiong; Jacques-Tiura, Angela J; Chen, Xinguang; Xie, Nianhua; Chen, Jing; Yang, Niannian; Gong, Jie; Macdonell, Karen Kolmodin

    2014-01-01

    Reducing tobacco use among adolescents in China represents a significant challenge for global tobacco control. Existing behavioral theories developed in the West - such as the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) - may be useful tools to help tackle this challenge. We examined the relationships between PMT factors and self-reported cigarette smoking behavior and intention among a random sample of vocational high school students (N=553) in Wuhan, China. Tobacco-related perceptions were assessed using the PMT Scale for Adolescent Smoking. Among the total sample, 45% had initiated cigarette smoking, and 25% smoked in the past month. Among those who never smoked, 15% indicated being likely or very likely to smoke in a year. Multiple regression modeling analysis indicated the significance of the seven PMT constructs, the four PMT perceptions and the two PMT pathways in predicting intention to smoke and actual smoking behavior. Overall, perceived rewards of smoking, especially intrinsic rewards, were consistently positively related to smoking intentions and behavior, and self-efficacy to avoid smoking was negatively related to smoking. The current study suggests the utility of PMT for further research examining adolescent smoking. PMT-based smoking prevention and clinical smoking cessation intervention programs should focus more on adolescents' perceived rewards from smoking and perceived efficacy of not smoking to reduce their intention to and actual use of tobacco. PMID:24157424

  6. Application of the protection motivation theory in predicting cigarette smoking among adolescents in China.

    PubMed

    Yan, Yaqiong; Jacques-Tiura, Angela J; Chen, Xinguang; Xie, Nianhua; Chen, Jing; Yang, Niannian; Gong, Jie; Macdonell, Karen Kolmodin

    2014-01-01

    Reducing tobacco use among adolescents in China represents a significant challenge for global tobacco control. Existing behavioral theories developed in the West - such as the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) - may be useful tools to help tackle this challenge. We examined the relationships between PMT factors and self-reported cigarette smoking behavior and intention among a random sample of vocational high school students (N=553) in Wuhan, China. Tobacco-related perceptions were assessed using the PMT Scale for Adolescent Smoking. Among the total sample, 45% had initiated cigarette smoking, and 25% smoked in the past month. Among those who never smoked, 15% indicated being likely or very likely to smoke in a year. Multiple regression modeling analysis indicated the significance of the seven PMT constructs, the four PMT perceptions and the two PMT pathways in predicting intention to smoke and actual smoking behavior. Overall, perceived rewards of smoking, especially intrinsic rewards, were consistently positively related to smoking intentions and behavior, and self-efficacy to avoid smoking was negatively related to smoking. The current study suggests the utility of PMT for further research examining adolescent smoking. PMT-based smoking prevention and clinical smoking cessation intervention programs should focus more on adolescents' perceived rewards from smoking and perceived efficacy of not smoking to reduce their intention to and actual use of tobacco.

  7. Cognitive trait anxiety, situational stress, and mental effort predict shifting efficiency: Implications for attentional control theory.

    PubMed

    Edwards, Elizabeth J; Edwards, Mark S; Lyvers, Michael

    2015-06-01

    Attentional control theory (ACT) predicts that trait anxiety and situational stress interact to impair performance on tasks that involve attentional shifting. The theory suggests that anxious individuals recruit additional effort to prevent shortfalls in performance effectiveness (accuracy), with deficits becoming evident in processing efficiency (the relationship between accuracy and time taken to perform the task). These assumptions, however, have not been systematically tested. The relationship between cognitive trait anxiety, situational stress, and mental effort in a shifting task (Wisconsin Card Sorting Task) was investigated in 90 participants. Cognitive trait anxiety was operationalized using questionnaire scores, situational stress was manipulated through ego threat instructions, and mental effort was measured using a visual analogue scale. Dependent variables were performance effectiveness (an inverse proportion of perseverative errors) and processing efficiency (an inverse proportion of perseverative errors divided by response time on perseverative error trials). The predictors were not associated with performance effectiveness; however, we observed a significant 3-way interaction on processing efficiency. At higher mental effort (+1 SD), higher cognitive trait anxiety was associated with poorer efficiency independently of situational stress, whereas at lower effort (-1 SD), this relationship was highly significant and most pronounced for those in the high-stress condition. These results are important because they provide the first systematic test of the relationship between trait anxiety, situational stress, and mental effort on shifting performance. The data are also consistent with the notion that effort moderates the relationship between anxiety and shifting efficiency, but not effectiveness.

  8. Surface effect on resonant properties of nanowires predicted by an elastic theory for nanomaterials

    SciTech Connect

    Yao, Yin; Chen, Shaohua E-mail: shchen@LNM.imech.ac.cn

    2015-07-28

    A recently developed continuum theory considering surface effect in nanomaterials is adopted to investigate the resonant properties of nanowires with different boundary conditions in the present paper. The main feature of the adopted theory is that the surface effect in nanomaterials is characterized by the surface energy density of the corresponding bulk materials and the surface relaxation parameter in nanoscale. Based on a fixed-fixed beam model and a cantilever one, the governing equation of resonant frequency for corresponding nanowires is obtained. Numerical calculation of the fundamental resonant frequency is carried out, the result of which is well consistent with the existing numerical ones. Comparing to the result predicted by the conventionally structural dynamics, the resonant frequency of a fixed-fixed nanowire is improved, while that of a cantilever nanowire is weakened due to the surface effect. Both a decreasing characteristic size (height or diameter) and an increasing aspect ratio could further enhance the varying trend of resonant properties for both kinds of nanowires. The present result should be helpful for the design of nano-devices and nanostructures related to nanowires.

  9. Predicting Quitting-Related Intentions and Smoking Behavior Using Extended Version of the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Problem Behavior Theory among Various Population Subgroups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Chung Gun

    2014-01-01

    This study consists of three sub-studies. Sub-study 1 and 2 attempted to incorporate environmental variables as precursor background variables of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to predict quitting-related intentions among Texas adult smokers and university student smokers, respectively. Sub-study 1 and 2 analyzed different data sets and were…

  10. The attention-weighted sample-size model of visual short-term memory: Attention capture predicts resource allocation and memory load.

    PubMed

    Smith, Philip L; Lilburn, Simon D; Corbett, Elaine A; Sewell, David K; Kyllingsbæk, Søren

    2016-09-01

    We investigated the capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) in a phase discrimination task that required judgments about the configural relations between pairs of black and white features. Sewell et al. (2014) previously showed that VSTM capacity in an orientation discrimination task was well described by a sample-size model, which views VSTM as a resource comprised of a finite number of noisy stimulus samples. The model predicts the invariance of [Formula: see text] , the sum of squared sensitivities across items, for displays of different sizes. For phase discrimination, the set-size effect significantly exceeded that predicted by the sample-size model for both simultaneously and sequentially presented stimuli. Instead, the set-size effect and the serial position curves with sequential presentation were predicted by an attention-weighted version of the sample-size model, which assumes that one of the items in the display captures attention and receives a disproportionate share of resources. The choice probabilities and response time distributions from the task were well described by a diffusion decision model in which the drift rates embodied the assumptions of the attention-weighted sample-size model.

  11. The attention-weighted sample-size model of visual short-term memory: Attention capture predicts resource allocation and memory load.

    PubMed

    Smith, Philip L; Lilburn, Simon D; Corbett, Elaine A; Sewell, David K; Kyllingsbæk, Søren

    2016-09-01

    We investigated the capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) in a phase discrimination task that required judgments about the configural relations between pairs of black and white features. Sewell et al. (2014) previously showed that VSTM capacity in an orientation discrimination task was well described by a sample-size model, which views VSTM as a resource comprised of a finite number of noisy stimulus samples. The model predicts the invariance of [Formula: see text] , the sum of squared sensitivities across items, for displays of different sizes. For phase discrimination, the set-size effect significantly exceeded that predicted by the sample-size model for both simultaneously and sequentially presented stimuli. Instead, the set-size effect and the serial position curves with sequential presentation were predicted by an attention-weighted version of the sample-size model, which assumes that one of the items in the display captures attention and receives a disproportionate share of resources. The choice probabilities and response time distributions from the task were well described by a diffusion decision model in which the drift rates embodied the assumptions of the attention-weighted sample-size model. PMID:27494766

  12. Predicting adolescent perpetration in cyberbullying: an application of the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Heirman, Wannes; Walrave, Michel

    2012-11-01

    This study aims to contribute to the research field on cyberbullying by offering a comprehensive theoretical framework that helps to predict adolescents' perpetration of cyberbullying. One thousand forty-two pupils from 12 to 18 years old in 30 different Belgian secondary schools participated in two surveys within a three-month interval. Structural equation modeling was used to test whether the overall model of theory of planned behavior (TPB) helps to predict adolescents' self-reported perpetration in cyberbullying. Overall, the present study provides strong support for the theoretical utility of the TPB in cyberbullying research. The model accounted for 44.8% of the variance in adolescents' behavioral intention to cyberbully and 33.2% of the variance in self-reported cyberbullying perpetration. We found a strong positive relationship between adolescents' attitude towards cyberbullying and their behavioral intention to perpetrate it. Perceived behavioral control and subjective norm, the other two TPB-constructs, were also significant albeit relatively less important predictors of adolescents' intention to cyberbully. The finding that adolescents' attitude is the most important predictor of perpetration, entails that prevention and intervention strategies should aim at reducing the perceived acceptability of cyberbullying among adolescents by converting neutral or positive attitudes towards this anti-social behavior into negative evaluations.

  13. Predicting the phonon spectra of coupled nonlinear chains using effective phonon theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Ruixia; Yuan, Zongqiang; Wang, Jun; Zheng, Zhigang

    2016-06-01

    In general one-dimensional nonlinear lattices, extensive studies have discovered the existence of renormalized phonons due to nonlinear interactions and found these renormalized phonons, as the energy carriers, are responsible for heat transport. Within the framework of renormalized phonons, a generic form of renormalized phonon spectrum has been derived and effective phonon theory (EPT) has been developed to explain the heat transport in general 1D nonlinear lattices. Our attention is dedicated to generalizing the EPT for two-layer nonlinear lattices and deriving the analytic expression of phonon spectra. By calculating the phonon spectra of different coupled models with EPT, it is found that the phonon dispersion relation is in good agreement with the result obtained from the spectral energy density method. It is demonstrated that the EPT of a coupled system can predict the phonon spectra of two-layer nonlinear lattices well. Thus, this finding may shed light on the prediction of heat conduction behavior in a coupled system, qualitatively, and provide a useful guide for designing thermal devices.

  14. Primacy Effects in Justice Judgments: Testing Predictions from Fairness Heuristic Theory.

    PubMed

    Lind, E. Allan; Kray, Laura; Thompson, Leigh

    2001-07-01

    We tested predictions from fairness heuristic theory that justice judgments are more sensitive to early fairness-relevant information than to later fairness-relevant information and that this primacy effect is more evident when group identification is higher. Participants working on a series of three tasks experienced resource failures that interfered with their productivity and always had the possibility of explaining problems to a supervisor. In a manipulation of the timing of fairness-relevant experiences, the supervisor refused to consider explanations on the first, second, or third of three work trials (but did consider explanations on the other two trials) or the supervisor never refused to hear the explanations. Prior to the work periods, the participants either had or had not undergone a manipulation designed to induce greater identification with the work group. As predicted, the timing of fairness-relevant experiences showed a primacy effect on fairness judgments and acceptance of authority in the high identification conditions and no evidence of such an effect in the low identification conditions. The implications of the findings for understanding the psychology of justice and for real-world justice phenomena are discussed. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

  15. A diffusivity model for predicting VOC diffusion in porous building materials based on fractal theory.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yanfeng; Zhou, Xiaojun; Wang, Dengjia; Song, Cong; Liu, Jiaping

    2015-12-15

    Most building materials are porous media, and the internal diffusion coefficients of such materials have an important influences on the emission characteristics of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The pore structure of porous building materials has a significant impact on the diffusion coefficient. However, the complex structural characteristics bring great difficulties to the model development. The existing prediction models of the diffusion coefficient are flawed and need to be improved. Using scanning electron microscope (SEM) observations and mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) tests of typical porous building materials, this study developed a new diffusivity model: the multistage series-connection fractal capillary-bundle (MSFC) model. The model considers the variable-diameter capillaries formed by macropores connected in series as the main mass transfer paths, and the diameter distribution of the capillary bundles obeys a fractal power law in the cross section. In addition, the tortuosity of the macrocapillary segments with different diameters is obtained by the fractal theory. Mesopores serve as the connections between the macrocapillary segments rather than as the main mass transfer paths. The theoretical results obtained using the MSFC model yielded a highly accurate prediction of the diffusion coefficients and were in a good agreement with the VOC concentration measurements in the environmental test chamber. PMID:26291782

  16. Predicting physical activity and outcome expectations in cancer survivors: an application of Self-Determination Theory.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Philip M; Blanchard, Chris M; Nehl, Eric; Baker, Frank

    2006-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contributions of autonomous and controlled motives drawn from Self-Determination Theory (SDT; Intrinsic Motivation and Self-determination in Human Behavior. Plenum Press: New York, 1985; Handbook of Self-determination Research. University of Rochester Press: New York, 2002) towards predicting physical activity behaviours and outcome expectations in adult cancer survivors. Participants were cancer-survivors (N=220) and a non-cancer comparison cohort (N=220) who completed an adapted version of the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire modified for physical activity behaviour (TSRQ-PA), an assessment of the number of minutes engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) weekly, and the anticipated outcomes expected from regular physical activity (OE). Simultaneous multiple regression analyses indicated that autonomous motives was the dominant predictor of OEs across both cancer and non-cancer cohorts (R(2adj)=0.29-0.43), while MVPA was predicted by autonomous (beta's ranged from 0.21 to 0.34) and controlled (beta's ranged from -0.04 to -0.23) motives after controlling for demographic considerations. Cancer status (cancer versus no cancer) did not moderate the motivation-physical activity relationship. Collectively, these findings suggest that the distinction between autonomous and controlled motives is useful and compliments a growing body of evidence supporting SDT as a framework for understanding motivational processes in physical activity contexts with cancer survivors. PMID:16304621

  17. Predicting physical activity and outcome expectations in cancer survivors: an application of Self-Determination Theory.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Philip M; Blanchard, Chris M; Nehl, Eric; Baker, Frank

    2006-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contributions of autonomous and controlled motives drawn from Self-Determination Theory (SDT; Intrinsic Motivation and Self-determination in Human Behavior. Plenum Press: New York, 1985; Handbook of Self-determination Research. University of Rochester Press: New York, 2002) towards predicting physical activity behaviours and outcome expectations in adult cancer survivors. Participants were cancer-survivors (N=220) and a non-cancer comparison cohort (N=220) who completed an adapted version of the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire modified for physical activity behaviour (TSRQ-PA), an assessment of the number of minutes engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) weekly, and the anticipated outcomes expected from regular physical activity (OE). Simultaneous multiple regression analyses indicated that autonomous motives was the dominant predictor of OEs across both cancer and non-cancer cohorts (R(2adj)=0.29-0.43), while MVPA was predicted by autonomous (beta's ranged from 0.21 to 0.34) and controlled (beta's ranged from -0.04 to -0.23) motives after controlling for demographic considerations. Cancer status (cancer versus no cancer) did not moderate the motivation-physical activity relationship. Collectively, these findings suggest that the distinction between autonomous and controlled motives is useful and compliments a growing body of evidence supporting SDT as a framework for understanding motivational processes in physical activity contexts with cancer survivors.

  18. Mechanical properties of zirconium alloys and zirconium hydrides predicted from density functional perturbation theory

    DOE PAGES

    Weck, Philippe F.; Kim, Eunja; Tikare, Veena; Mitchell, John A.

    2015-10-13

    Here, the elastic properties and mechanical stability of zirconium alloys and zirconium hydrides have been investigated within the framework of density functional perturbation theory. Results show that the lowest-energy cubic Pn-3m with combining macron]m polymorph of δ-ZrH1.5 does not satisfy all the Born requirements for mechanical stability, unlike its nearly degenerate tetragonal P42/mcm polymorph. Elastic moduli predicted with the Voigt–Reuss–Hill approximations suggest that mechanical stability of α-Zr, Zr-alloy and Zr-hydride polycrystalline aggregates is limited by the shear modulus. According to both Pugh's and Poisson's ratios, α-Zr, Zr-alloy and Zr-hydride polycrystalline aggregates can be considered ductile. The Debye temperatures predicted formore » γ-ZrH, δ-ZrH1.5 and ε-ZrH2 are θD = 299.7, 415.6 and 356.9 K, respectively, while θD = 273.6, 284.2, 264.1 and 257.1 K for the α-Zr, Zry-4, ZIRLO and M5 matrices, i.e. suggesting that Zry-4 possesses the highest micro-hardness among Zr matrices.« less

  19. A disaggregation theory for predicting concentration gradient distributions in heterogeneous flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Borgne, Tanguy; Huck, Peter; Dentz, Marco; Villermaux, Emmanuel

    2016-04-01

    Many transport processes occurring in fluid flows depend on concentration gradients, including a wide range of chemical reactions, such as mixing-driven precipitation, and biological processes, such as chemotaxis. A general framework for predicting the distribution of concentration gradients in heterogeneous flow fields is proposed based on a disaggregation theory. The evolution of concentration fields under the combined action of heterogeneous advection and diffusion is quantified from the analysis of the development and aggregation of elementary lamellar structures, which naturally form under the stretching action of flow fields. Therefore spatial correlations in concentrations can be estimated based on the understanding of the lamellae aggregation process that determine the concentration levels at neighboring spatial locations. Using this principle we quantify the temporal evolution of the concentration gradient Probability Density Functions in heterogeneous Darcy fields for arbitrary Peclet numbers. This approach is shown to provide accurate predictions of concentration gradient distributions for a range of flow systems, including turbulent flows and low Reynolds number porous media flows, for confined and dispersing mixtures.

  20. Predicting adolescent perpetration in cyberbullying: an application of the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Heirman, Wannes; Walrave, Michel

    2012-11-01

    This study aims to contribute to the research field on cyberbullying by offering a comprehensive theoretical framework that helps to predict adolescents' perpetration of cyberbullying. One thousand forty-two pupils from 12 to 18 years old in 30 different Belgian secondary schools participated in two surveys within a three-month interval. Structural equation modeling was used to test whether the overall model of theory of planned behavior (TPB) helps to predict adolescents' self-reported perpetration in cyberbullying. Overall, the present study provides strong support for the theoretical utility of the TPB in cyberbullying research. The model accounted for 44.8% of the variance in adolescents' behavioral intention to cyberbully and 33.2% of the variance in self-reported cyberbullying perpetration. We found a strong positive relationship between adolescents' attitude towards cyberbullying and their behavioral intention to perpetrate it. Perceived behavioral control and subjective norm, the other two TPB-constructs, were also significant albeit relatively less important predictors of adolescents' intention to cyberbully. The finding that adolescents' attitude is the most important predictor of perpetration, entails that prevention and intervention strategies should aim at reducing the perceived acceptability of cyberbullying among adolescents by converting neutral or positive attitudes towards this anti-social behavior into negative evaluations. PMID:23079360

  1. Mechanical properties of zirconium alloys and zirconium hydrides predicted from density functional perturbation theory

    SciTech Connect

    Weck, Philippe F.; Kim, Eunja; Tikare, Veena; Mitchell, John A.

    2015-10-13

    Here, the elastic properties and mechanical stability of zirconium alloys and zirconium hydrides have been investigated within the framework of density functional perturbation theory. Results show that the lowest-energy cubic Pn-3m with combining macron]m polymorph of δ-ZrH1.5 does not satisfy all the Born requirements for mechanical stability, unlike its nearly degenerate tetragonal P42/mcm polymorph. Elastic moduli predicted with the Voigt–Reuss–Hill approximations suggest that mechanical stability of α-Zr, Zr-alloy and Zr-hydride polycrystalline aggregates is limited by the shear modulus. According to both Pugh's and Poisson's ratios, α-Zr, Zr-alloy and Zr-hydride polycrystalline aggregates can be considered ductile. The Debye temperatures predicted for γ-ZrH, δ-ZrH1.5 and ε-ZrH2 are θD = 299.7, 415.6 and 356.9 K, respectively, while θD = 273.6, 284.2, 264.1 and 257.1 K for the α-Zr, Zry-4, ZIRLO and M5 matrices, i.e. suggesting that Zry-4 possesses the highest micro-hardness among Zr matrices.

  2. Aqueous acidities of primary benzenesulfonamides: Quantum chemical predictions based on density functional theory and SMD.

    PubMed

    Aidas, Kęstutis; Lanevskij, Kiril; Kubilius, Rytis; Juška, Liutauras; Petkevičius, Daumantas; Japertas, Pranas

    2015-11-01

    Aqueous pK(a) of selected primary benzenesulfonamides are predicted in a systematic manner using density functional theory methods and the SMD solvent model together with direct and proton exchange thermodynamic cycles. Some test calculations were also performed using high-level composite CBS-QB3 approach. The direct scheme generally does not yield a satisfactory agreement between calculated and measured acidities due to a severe overestimation of the Gibbs free energy changes of the gas-phase deprotonation reaction by the used exchange-correlation functionals. The relative pK(a) values calculated using proton exchange method compare to experimental data very well in both qualitative and quantitative terms, with a mean absolute error of about 0.4 pK(a) units. To achieve this accuracy, we find it mandatory to perform geometry optimization of the neutral and anionic species in the gas and solution phases separately, because different conformations are stabilized in these two cases. We have attempted to evaluate the effect of the conformer-averaged free energies in the pK(a) predictions, and the general conclusion is that this procedure is highly too costly as compared with the very small improvement we have gained.

  3. Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly

    PubMed Central

    Ahmad, Mohamad Hasnan; Shahar, Suzana; Teng, Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi; Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Sakian, Noor Ibrahim Mohd; Omar, Baharudin

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men) and 66.1±5.1 (women) years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1) exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women); and 2) the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women). Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB’s model, attitude (β=0.60) and perceived behavioral control (β=0.24) were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (β=0.82) was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men’s, β=0.68; women’s, β=0.24) and subjective norm (men’s, β=0.12; women’s, β=0.87) were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. “Feels healthier with exercise” was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (β=0.36) and women (β=0.49). “Not motivated to perform exercise” was the main barrier among men’s intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and to predict maintenance of exercise in the sarcopenic elderly. PMID:25258524

  4. Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly.

    PubMed

    Ahmad, Mohamad Hasnan; Shahar, Suzana; Teng, Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi; Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Sakian, Noor Ibrahim Mohd; Omar, Baharudin

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men) and 66.1±5.1 (women) years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1) exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women); and 2) the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women). Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB's model, attitude (β=0.60) and perceived behavioral control (β=0.24) were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (β=0.82) was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men's, β=0.68; women's, β=0.24) and subjective norm (men's, β=0.12; women's, β=0.87) were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. "Feels healthier with exercise" was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (β=0.36) and women (β=0.49). "Not motivated to perform exercise" was the main barrier among men's intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and to predict maintenance of exercise in the sarcopenic elderly.

  5. Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly.

    PubMed

    Ahmad, Mohamad Hasnan; Shahar, Suzana; Teng, Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi; Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Sakian, Noor Ibrahim Mohd; Omar, Baharudin

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men) and 66.1±5.1 (women) years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1) exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women); and 2) the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women). Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB's model, attitude (β=0.60) and perceived behavioral control (β=0.24) were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (β=0.82) was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men's, β=0.68; women's, β=0.24) and subjective norm (men's, β=0.12; women's, β=0.87) were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. "Feels healthier with exercise" was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (β=0.36) and women (β=0.49). "Not motivated to perform exercise" was the main barrier among men's intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and to predict maintenance of exercise in the sarcopenic elderly. PMID:25258524

  6. Improving Prediction Skill of Imperfect Turbulent Models Through Statistical Response and Information Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majda, Andrew J.; Qi, Di

    2016-02-01

    Turbulent dynamical systems with a large phase space and a high degree of instabilities are ubiquitous in climate science and engineering applications. Statistical uncertainty quantification (UQ) to the response to the change in forcing or uncertain initial data in such complex turbulent systems requires the use of imperfect models due to the lack of both physical understanding and the overwhelming computational demands of Monte Carlo simulation with a large-dimensional phase space. Thus, the systematic development of reduced low-order imperfect statistical models for UQ in turbulent dynamical systems is a grand challenge. This paper applies a recent mathematical strategy for calibrating imperfect models in a training phase and accurately predicting the response by combining information theory and linear statistical response theory in a systematic fashion. A systematic hierarchy of simple statistical imperfect closure schemes for UQ for these problems is designed and tested which are built through new local and global statistical energy conservation principles combined with statistical equilibrium fidelity. The forty mode Lorenz 96 (L-96) model which mimics forced baroclinic turbulence is utilized as a test bed for the calibration and predicting phases for the hierarchy of computationally cheap imperfect closure models both in the full phase space and in a reduced three-dimensional subspace containing the most energetic modes. In all of phase spaces, the nonlinear response of the true model is captured accurately for the mean and variance by the systematic closure model, while alternative methods based on the fluctuation-dissipation theorem alone are much less accurate. For reduced-order model for UQ in the three-dimensional subspace for L-96, the systematic low-order imperfect closure models coupled with the training strategy provide the highest predictive skill over other existing methods for general forced response yet have simple design principles based on a

  7. The strength of rubble-pile bodies: Theory, observations, and predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheeres, D.; Sanchez, P.

    2014-07-01

    The strength and morphology of a rubble-pile body will control how fast it can rotate before shedding mass or deforming, influence the process by which multi-component asteroid systems are created, and could have significance for the mitigation of hazardous near-Earth asteroids (NEA) should this be necessary in the future [1,2,3]. The morphology of these bodies, including the size distribution of boulders and grains internal to the system, the macro-porosity of these bodies, and the shapes and spin states of these bodies, are important for understanding and interpreting spacecraft imaging of asteroids, for predicting the end-state evolution of these bodies, and for gaining insight into their formation circumstances. Despite these compelling issues and questions, real insight on the strength of rubble-pile bodies and their morphology remains elusive. We explore a theory recently developed by us [3] for the morphology and strength of a rubble-pile body based on the properties of cohesive powders and show that several observations of small asteroid properties are consistent with the predictions of this model. That small asteroids can be rubble-pile bodies is clear based on several lines of evidence, including spacecraft imaging and sample analysis of Itokawa [4,5], the existence of the rotation spin rate barrier for bodies larger than a few hundred meters [6], and the recent observations of disrupting asteroids in the main belt [7,8]. A simple extrapolation from these observations are that bodies of at least a few hundred meters and larger are composed of a size distribution of components that range from decameter-sized boulders down to micron-sized grains. The relevant questions then become what the characteristics of these size distributions are and what physical implications for the strength of these bodies arise from this morphology. Based on the theory of cohesive granular mechanics [9] combined with a thorough review of results from the Hayabusa mission [4

  8. Thermodynamic scaling of dynamics in polymer melts: predictions from the generalized entropy theory.

    PubMed

    Xu, Wen-Sheng; Freed, Karl F

    2013-06-21

    Many glass-forming fluids exhibit a remarkable thermodynamic scaling in which dynamic properties, such as the viscosity, the relaxation time, and the diffusion constant, can be described under different thermodynamic conditions in terms of a unique scaling function of the ratio ρ(γ)∕T, where ρ is the density, T is the temperature, and γ is a material dependent constant. Interest in the scaling is also heightened because the exponent γ enters prominently into considerations of the relative contributions to the dynamics from pressure effects (e.g., activation barriers) vs. volume effects (e.g., free volume). Although this scaling is clearly of great practical use, a molecular understanding of the scaling remains elusive. Providing this molecular understanding would greatly enhance the utility of the empirically observed scaling in assisting the rational design of materials by describing how controllable molecular factors, such as monomer structures, interactions, flexibility, etc., influence the scaling exponent γ and, hence, the dynamics. Given the successes of the generalized entropy theory in elucidating the influence of molecular details on the universal properties of glass-forming polymers, this theory is extended here to investigate the thermodynamic scaling in polymer melts. The predictions of theory are in accord with the appearance of thermodynamic scaling for pressures not in excess of ~50 MPa. (The failure at higher pressures arises due to inherent limitations of a lattice model.) In line with arguments relating the magnitude of γ to the steepness of the repulsive part of the intermolecular potential, the abrupt, square-well nature of the lattice model interactions lead, as expected, to much larger values of the scaling exponent. Nevertheless, the theory is employed to study how individual molecular parameters affect the scaling exponent in order to extract a molecular understanding of the information content contained in the exponent. The chain

  9. Life history trade-offs and evidence for hierarchical resource allocation in two monocarpic perennials.

    PubMed

    Cao, G-X; Worley, A C

    2013-01-01

    The evolution of floral display is thought to be constrained by trade-offs between the size and number of flowers; however, empirical evidence for the trade-off is inconsistent. We examined evidence for trade-offs and hierarchical allocation of resources within and between two populations each of the monocarpic perennials, Cardiocrinum cordatum and C. giganteum. Within all populations, flower size-number trade-offs were evident after accounting for variation in plant size. In addition, variation in flower size explained much variation in flower-level allocation to attraction, and female and male function, a pattern consistent with hierarchical allocation. However, between population differences in flower size (C. cordatum) and number (C. giganteum) were not consistent with size-number trade-offs or hierarchical allocation. The population-level difference in C. cordatum likely reflects the combined influence of a time lag between initiation and maturation of flowers, and higher light levels in one population. Thus, our study highlights one mechanism that may account for the apparent independence of flower size and number in many studies. A prediction of sex allocation theory was also supported. In C. giganteum: plants from one population invested more mass in pistils and less in stamens than did plants from the other population. Detection of floral trade-offs in Cardiocrinum may be facilitated by monocarpic reproduction, production of a single inflorescence and ease of measuring plant size.

  10. Use of Plant Hydraulic Theory to Predict Ecosystem Fluxes Across Mountainous Gradients in Environmental Controls and Insect Disturbances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.; Reed, D. E.; Barnard, H. R.; Whitehouse, F.; Frank, J. M.; Massman, W. J.; Brooks, P. D.; Biederman, J. A.; Harpold, A. A.; Naithani, K. J.; Mitra, B.; Mackay, D. S.; Norton, U.; Borkhuu, B.

    2011-12-01

    While mountainous areas are critical for providing numerous ecosystem benefits at the regional scale, the strong gradients in environmental controls make predictions difficult. A key part of the problem is quantifying and predicting the feedback between mountain gradients and plant function which then controls ecosystem cycling. The emerging theory of plant hydraulics provides a rigorous yet simple platform from which to generate testable hypotheses and predictions of ecosystem pools and fluxes. Plant hydraulic theory predicts that plant controls over carbon, water, energy and nutrient fluxes can be derived from the limitation of plant water transport from the soil through xylem and out of stomata. In addition, the limit to plant water transport can be predicted by combining plant structure (e.g. xylem diameters or root-to-shoot ratios) and plant function (response of stomatal conductance to vapor pressure deficit or root vulnerability to cavitation). We evaluate the predictions of the plant hydraulic theory by testing it against data from a mountain gradient encompassing sagebrush steppe through subalpine forests (2700 to 3400 m). We further test the theory by predicting the carbon, water and nutrient exchanges from several coniferous trees in the same gradient that are dying from xylem dysfunction caused by blue-stain fungi carried by bark beetles. The common theme of both of these data sets is a change in water limitation caused by either changing precipitation along the mountainous gradient or lack of access to soil water from xylem-occluding fungi. Across all of the data sets which range in scale from individual plants to hillslopes, the data fit the predictions of plant hydraulic theory. Namely, there was a proportional tradeoff between the reference canopy stomatal conductance to water vapor and the sensitivity of that conductance to vapor pressure deficit that quantitatively fits the predictions of plant hydraulic theory. Incorporating this result into

  11. Birds' tails do act like delta wings but delta-wing theory does not always predict the forces they generate.

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Matthew R

    2003-01-01

    Delta-wing theory, which predicts the aerodynamics of aircraft like the Concorde, is the conventional explanation for the way in which a bird's tail operates in flight. Recently, doubt has been cast on the validity of applying a theory devised for supersonic aircraft to the small tails of slow-flying birds. By testing delta-wing models and birds' tails behind bodies with wings, I empirically show that the tails of birds produce lift in a very similar way to conventional delta-wing models. Both Perspex and birds' tail models produce lift similar to that predicted by delta-wing theory when narrowly spread and at low angles of attack. However, when widely spread and at high angles of attack, both tails and Perspex models produce much less lift than predicted, owing to vortex breakdown after which the assumptions of delta-wing theory are violated. These results indicate that birds' tails can be regarded as delta wings but that the theory predicting the forces produced by delta wings can only be applied within acceptable limits (i.e. tails spread less than 60 degrees and at angles of attack of less than 20 degrees). PMID:12965029

  12. A theory for predicting boundary impedance and resonance frequencies of slotted-wall wind tunnels, including plenum effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barger, R. L.

    1981-01-01

    Wave-induced resonance associated with the geometry of wind-tunnel test sections can occur. A theory that uses acoustic impedance concepts to predict resonance modes in a two dimensional, slotted wall wind tunnel with a plenum chamber is described. The equation derived is consistent with known results for limiting conditions. The computed resonance modes compare well with appropriate experimental data. When the theory is applied to perforated wall test sections, it predicts the experimentally observed closely spaced modes that occur when the wavelength is not long compared with he plenum depth.

  13. The Unobtrusive Memory Allocator

    2003-03-31

    This library implements a memory allocator/manager which ask its host program or library for memory refions to manage rather than requesting them from the operating system. This allocator supports multiple distinct heaps within a single executable, each of which may grow either upward or downward in memory. The GNU mmalloc library has been modified in such a way that its allocation algorithms have been preserved, but the manner in which it obtains regions to managemore » has been changed to request memory from the host program or library. Additional modifications allow the allocator to manage each heap as either upward or downward-growing. By allowing the hosting program or library to determine what memory is managed, this package allows a greater degree of control than other memory allocation/management libraries. Additional distinguishing features include the ability to manage multiple distinct heaps with in a single executable, each of which may grow either upward or downward in memory. The most common use of this library is in conjunction with the Berkeley Unified Parallel C (UPC) Runtime Library. This package is a modified version of the LGPL-licensed "mmalloc" allocator from release 5.2 of the "gdb" debugger's source code.« less

  14. On Predicting Mössbauer Parameters of Iron-Containing Molecules with Density-Functional Theory

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The performance of six frequently used density functional theory (DFT) methods (RPBE, OLYP, TPSS, B3LYP, B3LYP*, and TPSSh) in the prediction of Mössbauer isomer shifts(δ) and quadrupole splittings (ΔEQ) is studied for an extended and diverse set of Fe complexes. In addition to the influence of the applied density functional and the type of the basis set, the effect of the environment of the molecule, approximated with the conducting-like screening solvation model (COSMO) on the computed Mössbauer parameters, is also investigated. For the isomer shifts the COSMO-B3LYP method is found to provide accurate δ values for all 66 investigated complexes, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.05 mm s–1 and a maximum deviation of 0.12 mm s–1. Obtaining accurate ΔEQ values presents a bigger challenge; however, with the selection of an appropriate DFT method, a reasonable agreement can be achieved between experiment and theory. Identifying the various chemical classes of compounds that need different treatment allowed us to construct a recipe for ΔEQ calculations; the application of this approach yields a MAE of 0.12 mm s–1 (7% error) and a maximum deviation of 0.55 mm s–1 (17% error). This accuracy should be sufficient for most chemical problems that concern Fe complexes. Furthermore, the reliability of the DFT approach is verified by extending the investigation to chemically relevant case studies which include geometric isomerism, phase transitions induced by variations of the electronic structure (e.g., spin crossover and inversion of the orbital ground state), and the description of electronically degenerate triplet and quintet states. Finally, the immense and often unexploited potential of utilizing the sign of the ΔEQ in characterizing distortions or in identifying the appropriate electronic state at the assignment of the spectral lines is also shown. PMID:25821417

  15. Prediction of exercise in patients across various stages of bariatric surgery: a comparison of the merits of the theory of reasoned action versus the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Hunt, Hillary R; Gross, Alan M

    2009-11-01

    Obesity is a world-wide health concern approaching epidemic proportions. Successful long-term treatment involves a combination of bariatric surgery, diet, and exercise. Social cognitive models, such as the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), are among the most commonly tested theories utilized in the prediction of exercise. As exercise is not a completely volitional behavior, it is hypothesized that the TPB is a superior theoretical model for the prediction of exercise intentions and behavior. This study tested validity of the TPB in a sample of bariatric patients and further validated its improvement over the TRA in predicting exercise adherence at different operative stages. Results generally confirmed research hypotheses. Superiority of the TPB model was validated in this sample of bariatric patients, and Perceived Behavioral Control emerged as the single-best predictor of both exercise intentions and self-reported behavior. Finally, results suggested that both subjective norms and attitudes toward exercise played a larger role in the prediction of intention and behavior than previously reported.

  16. Propeller thrust analysis using Prandtl's lifting line theory, a comparison between the experimental thrust and the thrust predicted by Prandtl's lifting line theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kesler, Steven R.

    The lifting line theory was first developed by Prandtl and was used primarily on analysis of airplane wings. Though the theory is about one hundred years old, it is still used in the initial calculations to find the lift of a wing. The question that guided this thesis was, "How close does Prandtl's lifting line theory predict the thrust of a propeller?" In order to answer this question, an experiment was designed that measured the thrust of a propeller for different speeds. The measured thrust was compared to what the theory predicted. In order to do this experiment and analysis, a propeller needed to be used. A walnut wood ultralight propeller was chosen that had a 1.30 meter (51 inches) length from tip to tip. In this thesis, Prandtl's lifting line theory was modified to account for the different incoming velocity depending on the radial position of the airfoil. A modified equation was used to reflect these differences. A working code was developed based on this modified equation. A testing rig was built that allowed the propeller to be rotated at high speeds while measuring the thrust. During testing, the rotational speed of the propeller ranged from 13-43 rotations per second. The thrust from the propeller was measured at different speeds and ranged from 16-33 Newton's. The test data were then compared to the theoretical results obtained from the lifting line code. A plot in Chapter 5 (the results section) shows the theoretical vs. actual thrust for different rotational speeds. The theory over predicted the actual thrust of the propeller. Depending on the rotational speed, the error was: at low speeds 36%, at low to moderate speeds 84%, and at high speeds the error increased to 195%. Different reasons for these errors are discussed.

  17. Prediction of the Localized Necking under Non-Proportional Strain Paths by M-K Theory and FE Analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, Deok Chan; Chung, Yang Jin; Won, Seong Yeon; Kim, Kwang Yuk

    2010-06-01

    The localized necking under non-proportional strain paths was investigated using M-K theory and finite element analyses. The strain paths were calculated from finite element simulations and used for input data in the prediction of necking with M-K model and Yld2000-2d yield function. For the verification, square cup drawing tests with a ferritic stainless steel sheet were carried out numerically and experimentally. The predicted results showed good agreement with experiments.

  18. A technique for predicting mode I energy release rates using a first-order shear deformable plate theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davidson, B. D.; Schapery, R. A.

    1990-01-01

    Utilizing a first order shear deformable plate theory, a technique is described for predicting the distribution of the energy release rate along a curved or straight mode I planar crack in the plane of a plate (such as a delamination crack). Accuracy of the technique is assessed by comparing the distributions of energy release rate with those predicted by two- and three-dimensional finite element analyses of double cantilever beam specimens with straight crack fronts.

  19. The symbiotic lifestyle and its evolutionary consequences: social monogamy and sex allocation in the hermaphroditic shrimp Lysmata pederseni

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baeza, J. Antonio

    2010-08-01

    Sex allocation theory predicts female-biased sex allocation for simultaneous hermaphrodites with a monogamous mating system. Mating systems theory predicts that monogamy is advantageous in environments where refuges are discrete, scarce, relatively small, and when predation risk is high outside of these refuges. These predictions were tested with the Caribbean shrimp Lysmata pederseni, a simultaneous hermaphrodite which has an early male phase and lives inside tubes of the sponge Callyspongia vaginalis. This host sponge is a scarce resource that, together with the high predation risk typical of tropical environments, should favor monogamy in the shrimp. Field observations demonstrated that shrimps were frequently encountered as pairs within these tube sponges. Pairs were equally likely to comprise two hermaphrodites or one hermaphrodite and one male. Several of these pairs were observed for long periods of time in the field. Experiments demonstrated that hermaphrodites tolerated other hermaphrodites but not males in their host sponge. These results suggest that pairs of hermaphroditic L. pederseni are socially monogamous; they share the same host individual and might reproduce exclusively with their host partners for long periods of time. Nevertheless, males appeared less likely to establish long-term associations with hermaphrodites as indicated by the rate of their disappearance from their hosts (greater than that of hermaphrodites). Sex allocation was female biased in monogamous hermaphrodites. On average, hermaphrodites invested 34 times more to female than to male reproductive structures. Monogamy and female-biased sex allocation seem to be evolutionary consequences of adopting a symbiotic lifestyle in simultaneous hermaphrodites.

  20. Predicting accurate fluorescent spectra for high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons using density functional theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, Jacob; Heider, Emily C.; Campiglia, Andres; Harper, James K.

    2016-10-01

    The ability of density functional theory (DFT) methods to predict accurate fluorescence spectra for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is explored. Two methods, PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP, are evaluated both in the gas phase and in solution. Spectra for several of the most toxic PAHs are predicted and compared to experiment, including three isomers of C24H14 and a PAH containing heteroatoms. Unusually high-resolution experimental spectra are obtained for comparison by analyzing each PAH at 4.2 K in an n-alkane matrix. All theoretical spectra visually conform to the profiles of the experimental data but are systematically offset by a small amount. Specifically, when solvent is included the PBE0 functional overestimates peaks by 16.1 ± 6.6 nm while CAM-B3LYP underestimates the same transitions by 14.5 ± 7.6 nm. These calculated spectra can be empirically corrected to decrease the uncertainties to 6.5 ± 5.1 and 5.7 ± 5.1 nm for the PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP methods, respectively. A comparison of computed spectra in the gas phase indicates that the inclusion of n-octane shifts peaks by +11 nm on average and this change is roughly equivalent for PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP. An automated approach for comparing spectra is also described that minimizes residuals between a given theoretical spectrum and all available experimental spectra. This approach identifies the correct spectrum in all cases and excludes approximately 80% of the incorrect spectra, demonstrating that an automated search of theoretical libraries of spectra may eventually become feasible.

  1. The prediction of Fe Mössbauer parameters by the density functional theory: a benchmark study.

    PubMed

    Bochevarov, Arteum D; Friesner, Richard A; Lippard, Stephen J

    2010-11-01

    We report the performance of eight density functionals (B3LYP, BPW91, OLYP, O3LYP, M06, M06-2X, PBE, and SVWN5) in two Gaussian basis sets (Wachters and Partridge-1 on iron atoms; cc-pVDZ on the rest of atoms) for the prediction of the isomer shift (IS) and the quadrupole splitting (QS) parameters of Mössbauer spectroscopy. Two sources of geometry (density functional theory-optimized and X-ray) are used. Our data set consists of 31 iron-containing compounds (35 signals), the Mössbauer spectra of which were determined at liquid helium temperature and where the X-ray geometries are known. Our results indicate that the larger and uncontracted Partridge-1 basis set produces slightly more accurate linear correlations of electronic density used for the prediction of IS and noticeably more accurate results for the QS parameter. We confirm and discuss the earlier observation of Noodleman and co-workers that different oxidation states of iron produce different IS calibration lines. The B3LYP and O3LYP functionals have the lowest errors for either IS or QS. BPW91, OLYP, PBE, and M06 have a mixed success whereas SVWN5 and M06-2X demonstrate the worst performance. Finally, our calibrations and conclusions regarding the best functional to compute the Mössbauer characteristics are applied to candidate structures for the peroxo and Q intermediates of the enzyme methane monooxygenase hydroxylase (MMOH), and compared to experimental data in the literature. PMID:21258606

  2. Scaling up from traits to communities to ecosystems across broad climate gradients: Testing Metabolic Scaling Theories predictions for forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enquist, B. J.; Michaletz, S. T.; Buzzard, V.

    2015-12-01

    Key insights in global ecology will come from mechanistically linking pattern and process across scales. Macrosystems ecology specifically attempts to link ecological processes across spatiotemporal scales. The goal s to link the processing of energy and nutrients from cells all the way ecosystems and to understand how shifting climate influences ecosystem processes. Using new data collected from NSF funded Macrosystems project we report on new findings from forests sites across a broad temperature gradient. Our study sites span tropical, temperate, and high elevation forests we assess several key predictions and assumptions of Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) as well as several other competing hypotheses for the role of climate, light, and plant traits on influencing forest demography and forest ecosystems. Specifically, we assess the importance of plant size, light limitation, size structure, and various climatic factors on forest growth, demography, and ecosystem functioning. We provide some of the first systematic tests of several key predictions from MST. We show that MST predictions are largely upheld and that new insights from assessing theories predictions yields new observations and findings that help modify and extend MST's predictions and applicability. We discuss how theory is critically needed to further our understanding of how to scale pattern and process in ecology - from traits to ecosystems - in order to develop a more predictive global change biology.

  3. Selection for increased allocation to offspring number under environmental unpredictability.

    PubMed

    Simons, A M

    2007-03-01

    According to life-history theory, the evolution of offspring size is constrained by the trade-off between allocation of resources to individual offspring and the number of offspring produced. Existing models explore the ecological consequences of offspring size, whereas number is invariably treated simply as an outcome of the trade-off with size. Here I ask whether there is a direct evolutionary advantage of increased allocation to offspring number under environmental unpredictability. Variable environments are expected to select for diversification in the timing of egg hatch and seed germination, yet the dependence of the expression of diversification strategies, and thus parental fitness, on offspring number has not previously been recognized. I begin by showing that well-established sampling theory predicts that a target bethedging diversification strategy is more reliably achieved as offspring number increases. I then use a simulation model to demonstrate that higher offspring number leads to greater geometric mean fitness under environmental uncertainty. Natural selection is thus expected to act directly to increase offspring number under assumptions of environmental unpredictability in season quality.

  4. Predicting a quaternary tungsten oxide for sustainable photovoltaic application by density functional theory

    SciTech Connect

    Sarker, Pranab; Huda, Muhammad N.; Al-Jassim, Mowafak M.

    2015-12-07

    A quaternary oxide, CuSnW{sub 2}O{sub 8} (CTTO), has been predicted by density functional theory (DFT) to be a suitable material for sustainable photovoltaic applications. CTTO possesses band gaps of 1.25 eV (indirect) and 1.37 eV (direct), which were evaluated using the hybrid functional (HSE06) as a post-DFT method. The hole mobility of CTTO was higher than that of silicon. Further, optical absorption calculations demonstrate that CTTO is a better absorber of sunlight than Cu{sub 2}ZnSnS{sub 4} and CuIn{sub x}Ga{sub 1−x}Se{sub 2} (x = 0.5). In addition, CTTO exhibits rigorous thermodynamic stability comparable to WO{sub 3}, as investigated by different thermodynamic approaches such as bonding cohesion, fragmentation tendency, and chemical potential analysis. Chemical potential analysis further revealed that CTTO can be synthesized at flexible experimental growth conditions, although the co-existence of at least one secondary phase is likely. Finally, like other Cu-based compounds, the formation of Cu vacancies is highly probable, even at Cu-rich growth condition, which could introduce p-type activity in CTTO.

  5. Theory of Mind Predicts Emotion Knowledge Development in Head Start Children

    PubMed Central

    Seidenfeld, Adina M.; Johnson, Stacy R.; Cavadel, Elizabeth Woodburn; Izard, Carroll E.

    2014-01-01

    Research Findings Emotion knowledge (EK) enables children to identify emotions in themselves and others and its development facilitates emotion recognition in complex social situations. Social-cognitive processes, such as theory of mind (ToM), may contribute to developing EK by helping children realize the inherent variability associated with emotion expression across individuals and situations. The present study explored how ToM, particularly false belief understanding, in preschool predicts children’s developing EK in kindergarten. Participants were 60 3- to 5-year-old Head Start children. ToM and EK measures were obtained from standardized child tasks. ToM scores were positively related to performance on an EK task in kindergarten after controlling for preschool levels of EK and verbal ability. Exploratory analyses provided preliminary evidence that ToM serves as an indirect effect between verbal ability and EK. Practice or Policy Early intervention programs may benefit from including lessons on ToM to help promote socio-emotional learning, specifically EK. This consideration may be the most fruitful when the targeted population is at-risk. PMID:25364212

  6. Accurate predictions of C-SO2R bond dissociation enthalpies using density functional theory methods.

    PubMed

    Yu, Hai-Zhu; Fu, Fang; Zhang, Liang; Fu, Yao; Dang, Zhi-Min; Shi, Jing

    2014-10-14

    The dissociation of the C-SO2R bond is frequently involved in organic and bio-organic reactions, and the C-SO2R bond dissociation enthalpies (BDEs) are potentially important for understanding the related mechanisms. The primary goal of the present study is to provide a reliable calculation method to predict the different C-SO2R bond dissociation enthalpies (BDEs). Comparing the accuracies of 13 different density functional theory (DFT) methods (such as B3LYP, TPSS, and M05 etc.), and different basis sets (such as 6-31G(d) and 6-311++G(2df,2p)), we found that M06-2X/6-31G(d) gives the best performance in reproducing the various C-S BDEs (and especially the C-SO2R BDEs). As an example for understanding the mechanisms with the aid of C-SO2R BDEs, some primary mechanistic studies were carried out on the chemoselective coupling (in the presence of a Cu-catalyst) or desulfinative coupling reactions (in the presence of a Pd-catalyst) between sulfinic acid salts and boryl/sulfinic acid salts.

  7. Theory of mind ability predicts prognosis of outpatients with major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Yamada, Kazuo; Inoue, Yumiko; Kanba, Shigenobu

    2015-12-15

    A theory of mind (ToM) deficit in patients with major depressive episodes is associated with difficulty in social adjustment, and thus may indicate a poorer prognosis. We investigated the association between ToM deficits and the outcome in patients who had recovered from major depressive episodes. We evaluated ToM abilities of 100 patients with major depressive disorder during a period of remission. The patients were followed up for one year and their outcomes observed. After one year, patients who had a ToM deficit according to a second-order false belief question relapsed significantly more frequently than did patients who did not have a deficit (Fisher's exact test P<0.0001; relative risk (RR)=8.286; CI 2.608, 26.324). Significant differences between these two groups were shown in scores of the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale (P<0.0001). Our results suggest that a ToM deficit after symptom remission in patients with major depressive disorder predicts a higher relapse rate and lower social function one year after recovering from a major depressive episode.

  8. The prediction of stellar effective temperatures from the mixing-length theory of convection

    SciTech Connect

    Pedersen, B.B.; Vandenberg, D.A.; Irwin, A.W. )

    1990-03-01

    A generalized version of the mixing-length theory (MLT) of convection, along with simplifications in the limits of high and low convective efficiency, is described. This forms the basis for a study of the effects of proposed modifications to the original (Boehm-Vitense, 1958) form of the MLT on the predicted effective temperatures of cool stars. These modifications include the parameters y and m. It is found that none of the suggested refinements to the MLT affect the location and shape of an evolutionary track on the H-R diagram in ways that cannot be mimicked to high accuracy by a suitable choice of mixing length parameters alone. Thus, if mixing length parameters is calibrated by comparing stellar models with observed main-sequence stars with well-determined properties, then the subsequent evolutionary tracks and isochrones are uniquely defined, regardless of what version of the MLT is used in the calculations. A careful examination of the Revised Yale Isochrones suggests that the Teff scale of these isochrones is inconsistent with the assumed MLT, thereby resolving much of the known discrepancies between these calculations and those of VandenBerg and Bell (1958). 44 refs.

  9. Kohn-Sham density functional theory prediction of fracture in silicon carbide under mixed mode loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leung, K. W. K.; Pan, Z. L.; Warner, D. H.

    2016-03-01

    The utility of silicon carbide (SiC) for high temperature structural application has been limited by its brittleness. To improve its ductility, it is paramount to develop a sound understanding of the mechanisms controlling crack propagation. In this manuscript, we present direct ab initio predictions of fracture in SiC under pure mode I and mixed mode loading, utilizing a Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory (KSDFT) framework. Our results show that in both loading cases, cleavage occurs at a stress intensity factor (SIF) only slightly higher than the Griffith toughness, focusing on a (1 1 1) [1 \\bar{1} 0] crack in the 3C-SiC crystal structure. This lattice trapping effect is shown to decrease with mode mixity, due to the formation of a temporary surface bond that forms during decohesion under shear. Comparing the critical mode I SIF to the value obtained in experiments suggests that some plasticity may occur near a crack tip in SiC even at low temperatures. Ultimately, these findings provide a solid foundation upon which to study the influence of impurities on brittleness, and upon which to develop empirical potentials capable of realistically simulating fracture in SiC.

  10. Neural network approach to quantum-chemistry data: Accurate prediction of density functional theory energies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balabin, Roman M.; Lomakina, Ekaterina I.

    2009-08-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) approach has been applied to estimate the density functional theory (DFT) energy with large basis set using lower-level energy values and molecular descriptors. A total of 208 different molecules were used for the ANN training, cross validation, and testing by applying BLYP, B3LYP, and BMK density functionals. Hartree-Fock results were reported for comparison. Furthermore, constitutional molecular descriptor (CD) and quantum-chemical molecular descriptor (QD) were used for building the calibration model. The neural network structure optimization, leading to four to five hidden neurons, was also carried out. The usage of several low-level energy values was found to greatly reduce the prediction error. An expected error, mean absolute deviation, for ANN approximation to DFT energies was 0.6±0.2 kcal mol-1. In addition, the comparison of the different density functionals with the basis sets and the comparison of multiple linear regression results were also provided. The CDs were found to overcome limitation of the QD. Furthermore, the effective ANN model for DFT/6-311G(3df,3pd) and DFT/6-311G(2df,2pd) energy estimation was developed, and the benchmark results were provided.

  11. Surface mine planning and design implications and theory of a visual environmental quality predictive model

    SciTech Connect

    Burley, J.B.

    1999-07-01

    Surface mine planners and designers are searching for scientifically based tools to assist in the pre-mine planning and post-mine development or surface mine sites. In this study, the author presents a science based visual and environmental quality predictive model useful in preparing and assessing landscape treatments for surface mine sites. The equation explains 67 percent of respondent preference, with an overall p-value for the equation >0.0001 and a p-value >0.05 for each regressor. Regressors employed in the equation include an environmental quality index, foreground vegetation, distant nonvegetation, people, vehicles, utilities, foreground flowers, foreground erosion, wildlife, landscape openness, landscape mystery, and noosphericness (a measure of human disturbance). The equation can be explained with an Intrusion/Neutral Modifier/Temporal Enhancement Theory which suggests that human intrusions upon other humans results in landscape of low preference and which also suggests that landscape containing natural and special temporal features such as wildlife and flowers can enhance the value of a landscape scene. This research supports the importance of visual barriers such as berms and vegetation screens during mining operations and supports public perceptions concerning many types of industrial activities. In addition, the equation can be applied to study post-mining landscape development plans to maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of landscape treatments.

  12. Island biogeographical theory: Can it be used to predict lotic recovery rates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gore, James A.; Milner, Alexander M.

    1990-09-01

    Classic island biogeographic theory predicts that equilibrium will be reached when immigration and extinction rates are equal. These rates are modified by number of species in source area, number of intermediate islands, distance to recipient island, and size of intermediate islands. This general model has been variously modified and proposed to be a stochastic process with minimal competitive interaction or heavily deterministic. Predictive models of recovery (regardless of the end point chosen) have been based on the appropriateness of the MacArthur-Wilson models. Because disturbance frequency, severity, and intensity vary in their effect on community dynamics, we propose that disturbance levels should first be defined before evaluating the applicability of island biogeographical theory. Thus, we suggest a classification system of four disturbance levels based on recovery patterns by primary and secondary succession and faunal organization by primary (invasion of vacant areas) and secondary (remnant of previous community remains) processes. Level 1A disturbances completely destroy communities with no upstream or downstream sources of colonizers, while some component of near surface interstitial or hyporheic flora and fauna survive level 1B disturbances. Recovery has been reported to take from five years to longer than 25 years, when most invading colonists do not have an aerial form. Level 2 disturbances destroy the communities but leave upstream and downstream colonization sources (level 2A) and, sometimes, a hyporheic pool of colonizers (level 2B). Recovery studies have indicated primary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2A) with recovery times of 90-400 days or secondary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2B) with recovery times of 40-250 days. Level 3 disturbances result in reduction in species abundance and diversity along a stream reach; level 4 disturbances result in reduction of abundance and diversity in discrete patches. Both

  13. Predicting Occupational Interests and Choice Aspirations in Portuguese High School Students: A Test of Social Cognitive Career Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lent, Robert W.; Paixao, Maria Paula; da Silva, Jose Tomas; Leitao, Ligia Mexia

    2010-01-01

    The predictive utility of social cognitive career theory's (SCCT) interest and choice models was examined in a sample of 600 Portuguese high school students. Participants completed measures of occupational self-efficacy, outcome expectations, interests, social supports and barriers, and choice consideration across the six Holland (1997) RIASEC…

  14. Applying Social Cognitive Career Theory to Predict Interests and Choice Goals in Statistics among Spanish Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blanco, Angeles

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the usefulness of social cognitive career theory--SCCT (Lent, Brown, and Hackett, 1994) in predicting interests and goals relating to statistics among psychology students. The participants were 1036 Spanish students who completed measurements of statistics-related mastery experiences, self-efficacy, outcome expectations,…

  15. A Theory of Planned Behavior Research Model for Predicting the Sleep Intentions and Behaviors of Undergraduate College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knowlden, Adam P.; Sharma, Manoj; Bernard, Amy L.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to operationalize the constructs of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to predict the sleep intentions and behaviors of undergraduate college students attending a Midwestern University. Data collection spanned three phases. The first phase included a semi-structured qualitative interview (n = 11), readability by…

  16. Predicting Physical Activity of First-Year University Students: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kwan, Matthew Yiu Wing; Bray, Steven Russell; Ginis, Kathleen Anne Martin

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The purpose of this study was to apply Ajzen's theory of planned behavior (TPB) and a measure of past physical activity behavior to predict first-year students' physical activity intentions and behavior. Participants and Methods: First-year university students (N = 212) completed measures of TPB variables and past physical activity at…

  17. Theory of Planned Behavior: Sensitivity and Specificity in Predicting Graduation and Drop-Out among College and University Students?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fichten, Catherine S.; Amsel, Rhonda; Jorgensen, Mary; Nguyen, Mai Nhu; Budd, Jillian; King, Laura; Jorgensen, Shirley; Asuncion, Jennison

    2016-01-01

    We examined sensitivity and specificity when using the three theory of planned behavior (TPB) scales (Perceived Behavioral Control, Subjective Norms, Attitude) to predict graduation and drop-out in a longitudinal study of 252 college and university students with disabilities and in a separate cross-sectional study of a random sample of 1380…

  18. Predicting Oral Health-Related Behaviour in the Parents of Preschool Children: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van den Branden, Sigrid; Van den Broucke, Stephan; Leroy, Roos; Declerck, Dominique; Hoppenbrouwers, Karel

    2015-01-01

    Objective: This study aimed to test the predictive validity of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) when applied to the oral health-related behaviours of parents towards their preschool children in a cross-sectional and prospective design over a 5-year interval. Methods: Data for this study were obtained from parents of 1,057 children born…

  19. Examining and Predicting College Students' Reading Intentions and Behaviors: An Application of the Theory of Reasoned Action

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burak, Lydia

    2004-01-01

    This study examined the recreational reading attitudes, intentions, and behaviors of college students. The theory of reasoned action provided the framework for the investigation and prediction of the students' intentions and behaviors. Two hundred and one students completed questionnaires developed according to the guidelines for the construction…

  20. Using Structural Equation Modeling to Validate the Theory of Planned Behavior as a Model for Predicting Student Cheating

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mayhew, Matthew J.; Hubbard, Steven M.; Finelli, Cynthia J.; Harding, Trevor S.; Carpenter, Donald D.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to validate the use of a modified Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) for predicting undergraduate student cheating. Specifically, we administered a survey assessing how the TPB relates to cheating along with a measure of moral reasoning (DIT- 2) to 527 undergraduate students across three institutions; and analyzed the…

  1. Predicting Elementary School Teachers' Intentions To Teach Health Education: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burak, Lydia J.

    2002-01-01

    Tested the applicability of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) in predicting elementary teachers' intentions to teach health education, describing teachers' attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors regarding the teaching of health to students. Teacher surveys indicated that variables of the TPB explained 52.3 percent of the variance in teachers'…

  2. Fitting a Mixture Item Response Theory Model to Personality Questionnaire Data: Characterizing Latent Classes and Investigating Possibilities for Improving Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maij-de Meij, Annette M.; Kelderman, Henk; van der Flier, Henk

    2008-01-01

    Mixture item response theory (IRT) models aid the interpretation of response behavior on personality tests and may provide possibilities for improving prediction. Heterogeneity in the population is modeled by identifying homogeneous subgroups that conform to different measurement models. In this study, mixture IRT models were applied to the…

  3. Behavioral Change Theories Can Inform the Prediction of Young Adults' Adoption of a Plant-Based Diet

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyker, Brett A.; Davison, Kirsten K.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Drawing on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Transtheoretical Model (TTM), this study (1) examines links between stages of change for following a plant-based diet (PBD) and consuming more fruits and vegetables (FV); (2) tests an integrated theoretical model predicting intention to follow a PBD; and (3) identifies associated…

  4. Which Is Better at Predicting Quantum-Tunneling Rates: Quantum Transition-State Theory or Free-Energy Instanton Theory?

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yanchuan; Stecher, Thomas; Cvitaš, Marko T; Althorpe, Stuart C

    2014-11-20

    Quantum transition-state theory (QTST) and free-energy instanton theory (FEIT) are two closely related methods for estimating the quantum rate coefficient from the free-energy at the reaction barrier. In calculations on one-dimensional models, FEIT typically gives closer agreement than QTST with the exact quantum results at all temperatures below the crossover to deep tunneling, suggesting that FEIT is a better approximation than QTST in this regime. Here we show that this simple trend does not hold for systems of greater dimensionality. We report tests on several collinear and three-dimensional reactions, in which QTST outperforms FEIT over a range of temperatures below crossover, which can extend down to half the crossover temperature (below which FEIT outperforms QTST). This suggests that QTST-based methods such as ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD) may often give closer agreement with the exact quantum results than FEIT.

  5. Predicting critical temperatures of iron(II) spin crossover materials: density functional theory plus U approach.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yachao

    2014-12-01

    A first-principles study of critical temperatures (T(c)) of spin crossover (SCO) materials requires accurate description of the strongly correlated 3d electrons as well as much computational effort. This task is still a challenge for the widely used local density or generalized gradient approximations (LDA/GGA) and hybrid functionals. One remedy, termed density functional theory plus U (DFT+U) approach, introduces a Hubbard U term to deal with the localized electrons at marginal computational cost, while treats the delocalized electrons with LDA/GGA. Here, we employ the DFT+U approach to investigate the T(c) of a pair of iron(II) SCO molecular crystals (α and β phase), where identical constituent molecules are packed in different ways. We first calculate the adiabatic high spin-low spin energy splitting ΔE(HL) and molecular vibrational frequencies in both spin states, then obtain the temperature dependent enthalpy and entropy changes (ΔH and ΔS), and finally extract T(c) by exploiting the ΔH/T - T and ΔS - T relationships. The results are in agreement with experiment. Analysis of geometries and electronic structures shows that the local ligand field in the α phase is slightly weakened by the H-bondings involving the ligand atoms and the specific crystal packing style. We find that this effect is largely responsible for the difference in T(c) of the two phases. This study shows the applicability of the DFT+U approach for predicting T(c) of SCO materials, and provides a clear insight into the subtle influence of the crystal packing effects on SCO behavior.

  6. Predicting critical temperatures of iron(II) spin crossover materials: Density functional theory plus U approach

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yachao

    2014-12-07

    A first-principles study of critical temperatures (T{sub c}) of spin crossover (SCO) materials requires accurate description of the strongly correlated 3d electrons as well as much computational effort. This task is still a challenge for the widely used local density or generalized gradient approximations (LDA/GGA) and hybrid functionals. One remedy, termed density functional theory plus U (DFT+U) approach, introduces a Hubbard U term to deal with the localized electrons at marginal computational cost, while treats the delocalized electrons with LDA/GGA. Here, we employ the DFT+U approach to investigate the T{sub c} of a pair of iron(II) SCO molecular crystals (α and β phase), where identical constituent molecules are packed in different ways. We first calculate the adiabatic high spin-low spin energy splitting ΔE{sub HL} and molecular vibrational frequencies in both spin states, then obtain the temperature dependent enthalpy and entropy changes (ΔH and ΔS), and finally extract T{sub c} by exploiting the ΔH/T − T and ΔS − T relationships. The results are in agreement with experiment. Analysis of geometries and electronic structures shows that the local ligand field in the α phase is slightly weakened by the H-bondings involving the ligand atoms and the specific crystal packing style. We find that this effect is largely responsible for the difference in T{sub c} of the two phases. This study shows the applicability of the DFT+U approach for predicting T{sub c} of SCO materials, and provides a clear insight into the subtle influence of the crystal packing effects on SCO behavior.

  7. Nonlocal continuum electrostatic theory predicts surprisingly small energetic penalties for charge burial in proteins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardhan, Jaydeep P.

    2011-09-01

    We study the energetics of burying charges, ion pairs, and ionizable groups in a simple protein model using nonlocal continuum electrostatics. Our primary finding is that the nonlocal response leads to markedly reduced solvent screening, comparable to the use of application-specific protein dielectric constants. Employing the same parameters as used in other nonlocal studies, we find that for a sphere of radius 13.4 Å containing a single +1e charge, the nonlocal solvation free energy varies less than 18 kcal/mol as the charge moves from the surface to the center, whereas the difference in the local Poisson model is ˜35 kcal/mol. Because an ion pair (salt bridge) generates a comparatively more rapidly varying Coulomb potential, energetics for salt bridges are even more significantly reduced in the nonlocal model. By varying the central parameter in nonlocal theory, which is an effective length scale associated with correlations between solvent molecules, nonlocal-model energetics can be varied from the standard local results to essentially zero; however, the existence of the reduction in charge-burial penalties is quite robust to variations in the protein dielectric constant and the correlation length. Finally, as a simple exploratory test of the implications of nonlocal response, we calculate glutamate pKa shifts and find that using standard protein parameters (ɛprotein = 2-4), nonlocal results match local-model predictions with much higher dielectric constants. Nonlocality may, therefore, be one factor in resolving discrepancies between measured protein dielectric constants and the model parameters often used to match titration experiments. Nonlocal models may hold significant promise to deepen our understanding of macromolecular electrostatics without substantially increasing computational complexity.

  8. Influence of plant size on female-biased sex allocation in a single-flowered, nectarless herb

    PubMed Central

    Xiong, Ying-Ze; Xie, Meng; Huang, Shuang-Quan

    2016-01-01

    Relative allocation to female and male function in hermaphroditic species often departs from strict equisexuality. Increased femaleness with plant size in animal-pollinated species has been proposed in theory and demonstrated in empirical studies. However, such size-dependent sex allocation (SDS) has not been observed in some insect-pollinated species, throwing doubt on the generalization of SDS, that large plants have decelerated male function investment. Himalayan mayapple Podophyllum hexandrum (Berberidaceae) produces a single terminal flower and no nectar, providing a simple system for studying SDS without the confounding effects of flower number and nectar production. To investigate the SDS in P. hexandrum, plant size, biomass of floral organs (stamens, pistils and petals) and gamete production (pollen and ovule number) were measured in four populations in Yunnan Province, northwest China. Isometric allocation to female and male function with plant size was found in two populations, but the prediction of SDS was supported in the other two populations. Using pollen and ovule production as the allocation currency, allocation to female and male function was isometric in all studied populations. Resources allocated to attractive (petals) and sexual (pistils and stamens) structures did not show a significantly disproportionate increase with plant size in three of the four studied populations. The general pattern of isometric allocation to female and male function and to attractive and sexual structures could be attributed to the species being capable of automatic self-pollination, related to low pollen loss, minor deleterious effect of selfing and low importance of attractive structures. However, in further studies, careful consideration should be given to the different currencies used to estimate sex allocation. PMID:26602988

  9. Prediction of d^0 magnetism in self-interaction corrected density functional theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das Pemmaraju, Chaitanya

    2010-03-01

    Over the past couple of years, the phenomenon of ``d^0 magnetism'' has greatly intrigued the magnetism community [1]. Unlike conventional magnetic materials, ``d^0 magnets'' lack any magnetic ions with open d or f shells but surprisingly, exhibit signatures of ferromagnetism often with a Curie temperature exceeding 300 K. Current research in the field is geared towards trying to understand the mechanism underlying this observed ferromagnetism which is difficult to explain within the conventional m-J paradigm [1]. The most widely studied class of d^0 materials are un-doped and light element doped wide gap Oxides such as HfO2, MgO, ZnO, TiO2 all of which have been put forward as possible d0 ferromagnets. General experimental trends suggest that the magnetism is a feature of highly defective samples leading to the expectation that the phenomenon must be defect related. In particular, based on density functional theory (DFT) calculations acceptor defects formed from the O-2p states in these Oxides have been proposed as being responsible for the ferromagnetism [2,3]. However. predicting magnetism originating from 2p orbitals is a delicate problem, which depends on the subtle interplay between covalency and Hund's coupling. DFT calculations based on semi-local functionals such as the local spin-density approximation (LSDA) can lead to qualitative failures on several fronts. On one hand the excessive delocalization of spin-polarized holes leads to half-metallic ground states and the expectation of room-temperature ferromagnetism. On the other hand, in some cases a magnetic ground state may not be predicted at all as the Hund's coupling might be under estimated. Furthermore, polaronic distortions which are often a feature of acceptor defects in Oxides are not predicted [4,5]. In this presentation, we argue that the self interaction error (SIE) inherent to semi-local functionals is responsible for the failures of LSDA and demonstrate through various examples that beyond

  10. Approaches to Resource Allocation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dressel, Paul; Simon, Lou Anna Kimsey

    1976-01-01

    Various budgeting patterns and strategies are currently in use, each with its own particular strengths and weaknesses. Neither cost-benefit analysis nor cost-effectiveness analysis offers any better solution to the allocation problem than do the unsupported contentions of departments or the historical unit costs. An operable model that performs…

  11. Prediction of RNA secondary structures: from theory to models and real molecules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuster, Peter

    2006-05-01

    RNA secondary structures are derived from RNA sequences, which are strings built form the natural four letter nucleotide alphabet, {AUGC}. These coarse-grained structures, in turn, are tantamount to constrained strings over a three letter alphabet. Hence, the secondary structures are discrete objects and the number of sequences always exceeds the number of structures. The sequences built from two letter alphabets form perfect structures when the nucleotides can form a base pair, as is the case with {GC} or {AU}, but the relation between the sequences and structures differs strongly from the four letter alphabet. A comprehensive theory of RNA structure is presented, which is based on the concepts of sequence space and shape space, being a space of structures. It sets the stage for modelling processes in ensembles of RNA molecules like evolutionary optimization or kinetic folding as dynamical phenomena guided by mappings between the two spaces. The number of minimum free energy (mfe) structures is always smaller than the number of sequences, even for two letter alphabets. Folding of RNA molecules into mfe energy structures constitutes a non-invertible mapping from sequence space onto shape space. The preimage of a structure in sequence space is defined as its neutral network. Similarly the set of suboptimal structures is the preimage of a sequence in shape space. This set represents the conformation space of a given sequence. The evolutionary optimization of structures in populations is a process taking place in sequence space, whereas kinetic folding occurs in molecular ensembles that optimize free energy in conformation space. Efficient folding algorithms based on dynamic programming are available for the prediction of secondary structures for given sequences. The inverse problem, the computation of sequences for predefined structures, is an important tool for the design of RNA molecules with tailored properties. Simultaneous folding or cofolding of two or more RNA

  12. Constrained Allocation Flux Balance Analysis.

    PubMed

    Mori, Matteo; Hwa, Terence; Martin, Olivier C; De Martino, Andrea; Marinari, Enzo

    2016-06-01

    New experimental results on bacterial growth inspire a novel top-down approach to study cell metabolism, combining mass balance and proteomic constraints to extend and complement Flux Balance Analysis. We introduce here Constrained Allocation Flux Balance Analysis, CAFBA, in which the biosynthetic costs associated to growth are accounted for in an effective way through a single additional genome-wide constraint. Its roots lie in the experimentally observed pattern of proteome allocation for metabolic functions, allowing to bridge regulation and metabolism in a transparent way under the principle of growth-rate maximization. We provide a simple method to solve CAFBA efficiently and propose an "ensemble averaging" procedure to account for unknown protein costs. Applying this approach to modeling E. coli metabolism, we find that, as the growth rate increases, CAFBA solutions cross over from respiratory, growth-yield maximizing states (preferred at slow growth) to fermentative states with carbon overflow (preferred at fast growth). In addition, CAFBA allows for quantitatively accurate predictions on the rate of acetate excretion and growth yield based on only 3 parameters determined by empirical growth laws.

  13. Constrained Allocation Flux Balance Analysis.

    PubMed

    Mori, Matteo; Hwa, Terence; Martin, Olivier C; De Martino, Andrea; Marinari, Enzo

    2016-06-01

    New experimental results on bacterial growth inspire a novel top-down approach to study cell metabolism, combining mass balance and proteomic constraints to extend and complement Flux Balance Analysis. We introduce here Constrained Allocation Flux Balance Analysis, CAFBA, in which the biosynthetic costs associated to growth are accounted for in an effective way through a single additional genome-wide constraint. Its roots lie in the experimentally observed pattern of proteome allocation for metabolic functions, allowing to bridge regulation and metabolism in a transparent way under the principle of growth-rate maximization. We provide a simple method to solve CAFBA efficiently and propose an "ensemble averaging" procedure to account for unknown protein costs. Applying this approach to modeling E. coli metabolism, we find that, as the growth rate increases, CAFBA solutions cross over from respiratory, growth-yield maximizing states (preferred at slow growth) to fermentative states with carbon overflow (preferred at fast growth). In addition, CAFBA allows for quantitatively accurate predictions on the rate of acetate excretion and growth yield based on only 3 parameters determined by empirical growth laws. PMID:27355325

  14. Constrained Allocation Flux Balance Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Mori, Matteo; Hwa, Terence; Martin, Olivier C.

    2016-01-01

    New experimental results on bacterial growth inspire a novel top-down approach to study cell metabolism, combining mass balance and proteomic constraints to extend and complement Flux Balance Analysis. We introduce here Constrained Allocation Flux Balance Analysis, CAFBA, in which the biosynthetic costs associated to growth are accounted for in an effective way through a single additional genome-wide constraint. Its roots lie in the experimentally observed pattern of proteome allocation for metabolic functions, allowing to bridge regulation and metabolism in a transparent way under the principle of growth-rate maximization. We provide a simple method to solve CAFBA efficiently and propose an “ensemble averaging” procedure to account for unknown protein costs. Applying this approach to modeling E. coli metabolism, we find that, as the growth rate increases, CAFBA solutions cross over from respiratory, growth-yield maximizing states (preferred at slow growth) to fermentative states with carbon overflow (preferred at fast growth). In addition, CAFBA allows for quantitatively accurate predictions on the rate of acetate excretion and growth yield based on only 3 parameters determined by empirical growth laws. PMID:27355325

  15. Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction. Part 1; Comparison of Bearing Life Theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poplawski, Joseph V.; Peters, Steven M.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2001-01-01

    Four rolling-element bearing life theories were chosen for analysis and compared for a simple roller-race geometry model. The life theories were those of Weibull; Lundberg and Palmgren; Ioannides and Harris; and Zaretsky. The analysis without a fatigue limit of Ioannides and Harris is identical to the Lundberg and Palmgren analysis, and the Weibull analysis is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. The resultant predicted life a each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. The least variation in predicted life with Weibull slope comes with the Zaretsky equation. Except for a Weibull slope of 1.11, at which the Weibull equation predicts the highest lives, the highest lives are predicted for the Zaretsky equation. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both the Lundherg-Palmgren and Ioannides-Harris (where tau(sub u) = 0) equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMA/ISO standard. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field. The assumption of as shear stress fatigue limit tau(sub u) results in Hertz stress-life exponents greater than are experimentally verifiable.

  16. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1986-01-01

    Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  17. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1984-01-01

    Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  18. An Empirical Test of Ecodevelopmental Theory in Predicting HIV Risk Behaviors among Hispanic Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prado, Guillermo; Huang, Shi; Maldonado-Molina, Mildred; Bandiera, Frank; Schwartz, Seth J.; de la Vega, Pura; Brown, C. Hendricks; Pantin, Hilda

    2010-01-01

    Ecodevelopmental theory is a theoretical framework used to explain the interplay among risk and protective processes associated with HIV risk behaviors among adolescents. Although ecodevelopmentally based interventions have been found to be efficacious in preventing HIV risk behaviors among Hispanic youth, this theory has not yet been directly…

  19. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior and Cheating Justifications to Predict Academic Misconduct

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stone, Thomas H.; Jawahar, I. M.; Kisamore, Jennifer L.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show that academic misconduct appears to be on the rise; some research has linked academic misconduct to unethical workplace behaviors. Unlike previous empirically-driven research, this theory-based study seeks to examine the usefulness of a modification of Ajzen's theory of planned behavior to predict…

  20. Auction-based bandwidth allocation in the Internet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Jiaolong; Zhang, Chi

    2002-07-01

    It has been widely accepted that auctioning which is the pricing approach with minimal information requirement is a proper tool to manage scare network resources. Previous works focus on Vickrey auction which is incentive compatible in classic auction theory. In the beginning of this paper, the faults of the most representative auction-based mechanisms are discussed. And then a new method called uniform-price auction (UPA), which has the simplest auction rule is proposed and it's incentive compatibility in the network environment is also proved. Finally, the basic mode is extended to support applications which require minimum bandwidth guarantees for a given time period by introducing derivative market, and a market mechanism for network resource allocation which is predictable, riskless, and simple for end-users is completed.

  1. How well do the theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behaviour predict intentions and attendance at screening programmes? A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Cooke, Richard; French, David P

    2008-01-01

    Meta-analysis was used to quantify how well the Theories of Reasoned Action and Planned Behaviour have predicted intentions to attend screening programmes and actual attendance behaviour. Systematic literature searches identified 33 studies that were included in the review. Across the studies as a whole, attitudes had a large-sized relationship with intention, while subjective norms and perceived behavioural control (PBC) possessed medium-sized relationships with intention. Intention had a medium-sized relationship with attendance, whereas the PBC-attendance relationship was small sized. Due to heterogeneity in results between studies, moderator analyses were conducted. The moderator variables were (a) type of screening test, (b) location of recruitment, (c) screening cost and (d) invitation to screen. All moderators affected theory of planned behaviour relationships. Suggestions for future research emerging from these results include targeting attitudes to promote intention to screen, a greater use of implementation intentions in screening information and examining the credibility of different screening providers.

  2. Utility of the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior for predicting physician behavior: a prospective analysis.

    PubMed

    Millstein, S G

    1996-09-01

    The utility of the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB) for prospectively predicting physicians' delivery of preventive services was compared. Primary care physicians (N = 765) completed 2 mail surveys at periods 6 months apart. The addition of perceived behavioral control to the TRA model significantly increased the variance accounted for in behavioral intention and subsequent behavior (p < .001). TPB constructs were related to physicians' intentions to educate adolescents about sexually transmitted disease transmission (R = .52, p < .001) and to their subsequent delivery of this service (R = .63, p < .001). Perceived behavioral control had direct effects on behavior and interacted with social norms and behavioral intentions. Applications of models such as the TRA or TPB have focused primarily on predicting the behavioral intentions and behaviors of patients. Results suggest that these models have relevance for studying the behavior of health care providers as well.

  3. Prediction of satellite motions in the earth's gravitational field with axial symmetry by the KS regularized theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharaf, Mohamed Adel; Awad, Mervat El-Sayed; Banaja, Mona A.

    1987-05-01

    In this paper, economical and stable recurrence formulas for the earth's zonal potential and its gradient for the KS regularized theory will be established for any number N of the zonal harmonic coefficient. A general recursive computational algorithm based on these formulas is also established for the initial value problem of the KS theory for the prediction of artificial satellites in the earth's gravitational field with axial symmetry. Applications of the algorithm for the problem of the final state prediction are illustrated by numerical examples of three test orbits each for two geopotential models corresponding to N = 2 and N = 36. A final state of any desired accuracy is obtained for each case study, a result which shows the flexibility of the algorithm.

  4. To Set Up a Logistic Regression Prediction Model for Hepatotoxicity of Chinese Herbal Medicines Based on Traditional Chinese Medicine Theory

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Hongjie; Li, Tianhao; Zhan, Sha; Pan, Meilan; Ma, Zhiguo; Li, Chenghua

    2016-01-01

    Aims. To establish a logistic regression (LR) prediction model for hepatotoxicity of Chinese herbal medicines (HMs) based on traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) theory and to provide a statistical basis for predicting hepatotoxicity of HMs. Methods. The correlations of hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic Chinese HMs with four properties, five flavors, and channel tropism were analyzed with chi-square test for two-way unordered categorical data. LR prediction model was established and the accuracy of the prediction by this model was evaluated. Results. The hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic Chinese HMs were related with four properties (p < 0.05), and the coefficient was 0.178 (p < 0.05); also they were related with five flavors (p < 0.05), and the coefficient was 0.145 (p < 0.05); they were not related with channel tropism (p > 0.05). There were totally 12 variables from four properties and five flavors for the LR. Four variables, warm and neutral of the four properties and pungent and salty of five flavors, were selected to establish the LR prediction model, with the cutoff value being 0.204. Conclusions. Warm and neutral of the four properties and pungent and salty of five flavors were the variables to affect the hepatotoxicity. Based on such results, the established LR prediction model had some predictive power for hepatotoxicity of Chinese HMs.

  5. To Set Up a Logistic Regression Prediction Model for Hepatotoxicity of Chinese Herbal Medicines Based on Traditional Chinese Medicine Theory

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Hongjie; Li, Tianhao; Zhan, Sha; Pan, Meilan; Ma, Zhiguo; Li, Chenghua

    2016-01-01

    Aims. To establish a logistic regression (LR) prediction model for hepatotoxicity of Chinese herbal medicines (HMs) based on traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) theory and to provide a statistical basis for predicting hepatotoxicity of HMs. Methods. The correlations of hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic Chinese HMs with four properties, five flavors, and channel tropism were analyzed with chi-square test for two-way unordered categorical data. LR prediction model was established and the accuracy of the prediction by this model was evaluated. Results. The hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic Chinese HMs were related with four properties (p < 0.05), and the coefficient was 0.178 (p < 0.05); also they were related with five flavors (p < 0.05), and the coefficient was 0.145 (p < 0.05); they were not related with channel tropism (p > 0.05). There were totally 12 variables from four properties and five flavors for the LR. Four variables, warm and neutral of the four properties and pungent and salty of five flavors, were selected to establish the LR prediction model, with the cutoff value being 0.204. Conclusions. Warm and neutral of the four properties and pungent and salty of five flavors were the variables to affect the hepatotoxicity. Based on such results, the established LR prediction model had some predictive power for hepatotoxicity of Chinese HMs. PMID:27656240

  6. To Set Up a Logistic Regression Prediction Model for Hepatotoxicity of Chinese Herbal Medicines Based on Traditional Chinese Medicine Theory.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hongjie; Li, Tianhao; Chen, Lingxiu; Zhan, Sha; Pan, Meilan; Ma, Zhiguo; Li, Chenghua; Zhang, Zhe

    2016-01-01

    Aims. To establish a logistic regression (LR) prediction model for hepatotoxicity of Chinese herbal medicines (HMs) based on traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) theory and to provide a statistical basis for predicting hepatotoxicity of HMs. Methods. The correlations of hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic Chinese HMs with four properties, five flavors, and channel tropism were analyzed with chi-square test for two-way unordered categorical data. LR prediction model was established and the accuracy of the prediction by this model was evaluated. Results. The hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic Chinese HMs were related with four properties (p < 0.05), and the coefficient was 0.178 (p < 0.05); also they were related with five flavors (p < 0.05), and the coefficient was 0.145 (p < 0.05); they were not related with channel tropism (p > 0.05). There were totally 12 variables from four properties and five flavors for the LR. Four variables, warm and neutral of the four properties and pungent and salty of five flavors, were selected to establish the LR prediction model, with the cutoff value being 0.204. Conclusions. Warm and neutral of the four properties and pungent and salty of five flavors were the variables to affect the hepatotoxicity. Based on such results, the established LR prediction model had some predictive power for hepatotoxicity of Chinese HMs.

  7. To Set Up a Logistic Regression Prediction Model for Hepatotoxicity of Chinese Herbal Medicines Based on Traditional Chinese Medicine Theory.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hongjie; Li, Tianhao; Chen, Lingxiu; Zhan, Sha; Pan, Meilan; Ma, Zhiguo; Li, Chenghua; Zhang, Zhe

    2016-01-01

    Aims. To establish a logistic regression (LR) prediction model for hepatotoxicity of Chinese herbal medicines (HMs) based on traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) theory and to provide a statistical basis for predicting hepatotoxicity of HMs. Methods. The correlations of hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic Chinese HMs with four properties, five flavors, and channel tropism were analyzed with chi-square test for two-way unordered categorical data. LR prediction model was established and the accuracy of the prediction by this model was evaluated. Results. The hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic Chinese HMs were related with four properties (p < 0.05), and the coefficient was 0.178 (p < 0.05); also they were related with five flavors (p < 0.05), and the coefficient was 0.145 (p < 0.05); they were not related with channel tropism (p > 0.05). There were totally 12 variables from four properties and five flavors for the LR. Four variables, warm and neutral of the four properties and pungent and salty of five flavors, were selected to establish the LR prediction model, with the cutoff value being 0.204. Conclusions. Warm and neutral of the four properties and pungent and salty of five flavors were the variables to affect the hepatotoxicity. Based on such results, the established LR prediction model had some predictive power for hepatotoxicity of Chinese HMs. PMID:27656240

  8. Game Theoretic Modeling of Water Resources Allocation Under Hydro-Climatic Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Siegfried, T.

    2005-12-01

    Typical hydrologic and economic modeling approaches rely on assumptions of climate stationarity and economic conditions of ideal markets and rational decision-makers. In this study, we incorporate hydroclimatic variability with a game theoretic approach to simulate and evaluate common water allocation paradigms. Game Theory may be particularly appropriate for modeling water allocation decisions. First, a game theoretic approach allows economic analysis in situations where price theory doesn't apply, which is typically the case in water resources where markets are thin, players are few, and rules of exchange are highly constrained by legal or cultural traditions. Previous studies confirm that game theory is applicable to water resources decision problems, yet applications and modeling based on these principles is only rarely observed in the literature. Second, there are numerous existing theoretical and empirical studies of specific games and human behavior that may be applied in the development of predictive water allocation models. With this framework, one can evaluate alternative orderings and rules regarding the fraction of available water that one is allowed to appropriate. Specific attributes of the players involved in water resources management complicate the determination of solutions to game theory models. While an analytical approach will be useful for providing general insights, the variety of preference structures of individual players in a realistic water scenario will likely require a simulation approach. We propose a simulation approach incorporating the rationality, self-interest and equilibrium concepts of game theory with an agent-based modeling framework that allows the distinct properties of each player to be expressed and allows the performance of the system to manifest the integrative effect of these factors. Underlying this framework, we apply a realistic representation of spatio-temporal hydrologic variability and incorporate the impact of

  9. A Critique of the Capacity of Strauss Grounded Theory for Prediction, Change, and Control in Organisational Strategy via a Grounded Theorisation of Leisure and Cultural Strategy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bakir, Ali; Bakir, Vian

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we critique grounded theory's ability to fulfil its aim of offering a practical vehicle for prediction, change, and control as stipulated in grounded theory's original formulation by Glaser and Strauss, and later developed by Strauss. We do this through a case study approach, whereby we develop a grounded theory of leisure and…

  10. Can we Predict Quantum Yields Using Excited State Density Functional Theory for New Families of Fluorescent Dyes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohn, Alexander W.; Lin, Zhou; Shepherd, James J.; Van Voorhis, Troy

    2016-06-01

    For a fluorescent dye, the quantum yield characterizes the efficiency of energy transfer from the absorbed light to the emitted fluorescence. In the screening among potential families of dyes, those with higher quantum yields are expected to have more advantages. From the perspective of theoreticians, an efficient prediction of the quantum yield using a universal excited state electronic structure theory is in demand but still challenging. The most representative examples for such excited state theory include time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) and restricted open-shell Kohn-Sham (ROKS). In the present study, we explore the possibility of predicting the quantum yields for conventional and new families of organic dyes using a combination of TDDFT and ROKS. We focus on radiative (kr) and nonradiative (knr) rates for the decay of the first singlet excited state (S_1) into the ground state (S_0) in accordance with Kasha's rule. M. Kasha, Discuss. Faraday Soc., 9, 14 (1950). For each dye compound, kr is calculated with the S_1-S_0 energy gap and transition dipole moment obtained using ROKS and TDDFT respectively at the relaxed S_1 geometry. Our predicted kr agrees well with the experimental value, so long as the order of energy levels is correctly predicted. Evaluation of knr is less straightforward as multiple processes are involved. Our study focuses on the S_1-T_1 intersystem crossing (ISC) and the S_1-S_0 internal conversion (IC): we investigate the properties that allow us to model the knr value using a Marcus-like expression, such as the Stokes shift, the reorganization energy, and the S_1-T_1 and S_1-S_0 energy gaps. Taking these factors into consideration, we compare our results with those obtained using the actual Marcus theory and provide explanation for discrepancy. T. Kowalczyk, T. Tsuchimochi, L. Top, P.-T. Chen, and T. Van Voorhis, J. Chem. Phys., 138, 164101 (2013). M. Kasha, Discuss. Faraday Soc., 9, 14 (1950).

  11. Sex allocation pattern of the diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana.

    PubMed

    Shirokawa, Y; Shimada, M

    2013-06-22

    Sex allocation is one of the most successful applications of evolutionary game theory. This theory has usually been applied to multicellular organisms; however, conditional sex allocation in unicellular organisms remains an unexplored field of research. Observations at the cellular level are indispensable for an understanding of the phenotypic sex allocation strategy among individuals within clonal unicellular organisms. The diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana, in which the sexes are generated from vegetative cells, is suitable for investigating effects of phenotypic plasticity factors on sex allocation while excluding genetic differences. We designed a microfluidic system that allowed us to trace the fate of individual cells. Sex allocation by individual mother cells was affected by cell lineage, cell size and cell density. Sibling cell pairs tended to differentiate into the same fates (split sex ratio). We found a significant negative correlation between the cell area of the mother cell and sex ratio of the two sibling cells. The male-biased sex ratio declined with higher local cell population density, supporting the fertility insurance hypothesis. Our results characterize multiple non-genetic factors that affect the phenotypic single cell-level sex allocation. Sex allocation in diatoms may provide a model system for testing evolutionary game theory in unicellular organisms. PMID:23760641

  12. Sex allocation pattern of the diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana

    PubMed Central

    Shirokawa, Y.; Shimada, M.

    2013-01-01

    Sex allocation is one of the most successful applications of evolutionary game theory. This theory has usually been applied to multicellular organisms; however, conditional sex allocation in unicellular organisms remains an unexplored field of research. Observations at the cellular level are indispensable for an understanding of the phenotypic sex allocation strategy among individuals within clonal unicellular organisms. The diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana, in which the sexes are generated from vegetative cells, is suitable for investigating effects of phenotypic plasticity factors on sex allocation while excluding genetic differences. We designed a microfluidic system that allowed us to trace the fate of individual cells. Sex allocation by individual mother cells was affected by cell lineage, cell size and cell density. Sibling cell pairs tended to differentiate into the same fates (split sex ratio). We found a significant negative correlation between the cell area of the mother cell and sex ratio of the two sibling cells. The male-biased sex ratio declined with higher local cell population density, supporting the fertility insurance hypothesis. Our results characterize multiple non-genetic factors that affect the phenotypic single cell-level sex allocation. Sex allocation in diatoms may provide a model system for testing evolutionary game theory in unicellular organisms. PMID:23760641

  13. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups—what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    PubMed Central

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analyzed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given. PMID:25505432

  14. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups-what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    PubMed

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analyzed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given.

  15. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups-what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    PubMed

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analyzed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given. PMID:25505432

  16. Predicting and understanding undergraduate students' intentions to gamble in a casino using an extended model of the theory of reasoned action and the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hyung-Seok

    2013-06-01

    Given that current television programming contains numerous gambling portrayals, it is imperative to understand whether and to what extent these gambling behaviors in media influence individuals' beliefs, attitudes, and intentions. This study explores an extended model of the theory of reasoned action (TRA) by including gambling media exposure as a distal, mediating and mediated factor in predicting undergraduate students' intentions to gamble in a casino. Findings show that the extended model of TRA clearly indicates that the constructs of gambling media exposure, prior gambling experience, and level of gambling addiction contribute to the prediction of undergraduate students' casino gambling intentions. Theoretical implications of gambling media effects and practical implications for public policy are discussed, and future research directions are outlined.

  17. Dynamics of change in the practice of female genital cutting in Senegambia: Testing predictions of social convention theory

    PubMed Central

    Shell-Duncan, Bettina; Wander, Katherine; Hernlund, Ylva; Moreau, Amadou

    2014-01-01

    Recent reviews of intervention efforts aimed at ending female genital cutting (FGC) have concluded that progress to date has been slow, and call for more efficient programs informed by theories on behavior change. Social convention theory, first proposed by Mackie (1996), posits that in the context of extreme resource inequality, FGC emerged as a means of securing a better marriage by signaling fidelity, and subsequently spread to become a prerequisite for marriage for all women. Change is predicted to result from coordinated abandonment in intermarrying groups so as to preserve a marriage market for uncircumcised girls. While this theory fits well with many general observations of FGC, there have been few attempts to systematically test the theory. We use data from a three year mixed-method study of behavior change that began in 2004 in Senegal and The Gambia to explicitly test predictions generated by social convention theory. Analyses of 300 in-depth interviews, 28 focus group discussions, and survey data from 1220 women show that FGC is most often only indirectly related to marriageability via concerns over preserving virginity. Instead we find strong evidence for an alternative convention, namely a peer convention. We propose that being circumcised serves as a signal to other circumcised women that a girl or woman has been trained to respect the authority of her circumcised elders and is worthy of inclusion in their social network. In this manner, FGC facilitates the accumulation of social capital by younger women and of power and prestige by elder women. Based on this new evidence and reinterpretation of social convention theory, we suggest that interventions aimed at eliminating FGC should target women’s social networks, which are intergenerational, and include both men and women. Our findings support Mackie’s assertion that expectations regarding FGC are interdependent; change must therefore be coordinated among interconnected members of social networks

  18. Modeling evapotranspiration based on plant hydraulic theory can predict spatial variability across an elevation gradient and link to biogeochemical fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackay, D. S.; Frank, J.; Reed, D.; Whitehouse, F.; Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.; Massman, W. J.; Sperry, J. S.

    2012-04-01

    In woody plant systems transpiration is often the dominant component of total evapotranspiration, and so it is key to understanding water and energy cycles. Moreover, transpiration is tightly coupled to carbon and nutrient fluxes, and so it is also vital to understanding spatial variability of biogeochemical fluxes. However, the spatial variability of transpiration and its links to biogeochemical fluxes, within- and among-ecosystems, has been a challenge to constrain because of complex feedbacks between physical and biological controls. Plant hydraulics provides an emerging theory with the rigor needed to develop testable hypotheses and build useful models for scaling these coupled fluxes from individual plants to regional scales. This theory predicts that vegetative controls over water, energy, carbon, and nutrient fluxes can be determined from the limitation of plant water transport through the soil-xylem-stomata pathway. Limits to plant water transport can be predicted from measurable plant structure and function (e.g., vulnerability to cavitation). We present a next-generation coupled transpiration-biogeochemistry model based on this emerging theory. The model, TREEScav, is capable of predicting transpiration, along with carbon and nutrient flows, constrained by plant structure and function. The model incorporates tightly coupled mechanisms of the demand and supply of water through the soil-xylem-stomata system, with the feedbacks to photosynthesis and utilizable carbohydrates. The model is evaluated by testing it against transpiration and carbon flux data along an elevation gradient of woody plants comprising sagebrush steppe, mid-elevation lodgepole pine forests, and subalpine spruce/fir forests in the Rocky Mountains. The model accurately predicts transpiration and carbon fluxes as measured from gas exchange, sap flux, and eddy covariance towers. The results of this work demonstrate that credible spatial predictions of transpiration and related

  19. Myrmics Memory Allocator

    SciTech Connect

    Lymperis, S.

    2011-09-23

    MMA is a stand-alone memory management system for MPI clusters. It implements a shared Partitioned Global Address Space, where multiple MPI processes request objects from the allocator and the latter provides them with system-wide unique memory addresses for each object. It provides applications with an intuitive way of managing the memory system in a unified way, thus enabling easier writing of irregular application code.

  20. Musical Meter Modulates the Allocation of Attention across Time.

    PubMed

    Fitzroy, Ahren B; Sanders, Lisa D

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic attending theory predicts that attention is allocated hierarchically across time during processing of hierarchical rhythmic structures such as musical meter. ERP research demonstrates that attention to a moment in time modulates early auditory processing as evidenced by the amplitude of the first negative peak (N1) approximately 100 msec after sound onset. ERPs elicited by tones presented at times of high and low metric strength in short melodies were compared to test the hypothesis that hierarchically structured rhythms direct attention in a manner that modulates early perceptual processing. A more negative N1 was observed for metrically strong beats compared with metrically weak beats; this result provides electrophysiological evidence that hierarchical rhythms direct attention to metrically strong times during engaged listening. The N1 effect was observed only on fast tempo trials, suggesting that listeners more consistently invoke selective processing based on hierarchical rhythms when sounds are presented rapidly. The N1 effect was not modulated by musical expertise, indicating that the allocation of attention to metrically strong times is not dependent on extensive training. Additionally, changes in P2 amplitude and a late negativity were associated with metric strength under some conditions, indicating that multiple cognitive processes are associated with metric perception. PMID:26284995

  1. Cognitive-Aware Modality Allocation in Intelligent Multimodal Information Presentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Yujia; Theune, Mariët; Nijholt, Anton

    Intelligent multimodal presentation (IMMP) systems are able to generate multimodal presentations adaptively, based on the run-time requirements of user-computer interaction. Modality allocation in IMMP system needs to adapt the modality choice to changes in various relevant factors, such as the type of information to be conveyed, the presentation goal, the characteristics of the available modalities, the user profile, the condition of the environment, and the type of user task. In this study, we emphasize that modality allocation in IMMP systems should also take into account the cognitive impacts of modality on human information processing. We first describe several modality-related cognitive and neuropsychological findings. Then a user study is presented to demonstrate the effects of modality on performance, cognitive load and stress, using a high-load and time-critical user task. Finally, we show a possible way to integrate relevant cognitive theories into a computational model that can systematically predict the suitability of a modality choice for a given presentation task.

  2. Main Predictions of the Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicidal Behavior: Empirical Tests in Two Samples of Young Adults

    PubMed Central

    Joiner, Thomas E.; Van Orden, Kimberly A.; Witte, Tracy K.; Selby, Edward A.; Ribeiro, Jessica D.; Lewis, Robyn; Rudd, M. David

    2010-01-01

    The interpersonal-psychological theory of suicidal behavior (Joiner, 2005) makes two overarching predictions: 1) that perceptions of burdening others and of social alienation combine to instill the desire for death; and 2) that individuals will not act on the desire for death unless they have developed the capability to do so – a capability that develops through exposure and thus habituation to painful and/or fearsome experiences, and which is posited by the theory to be necessary to overcome powerful self-preservation pressures. Two studies test these predictions. In Study 1, the interaction of (low) family social support (cf. social alienation or low belonging) and feeling like one does not matter (cf. perceived burdensomeness) predicted current suicidal ideation, beyond depression indices. In Study 2, the three-way interaction between a measure of low belonging, a measure of perceived burdensomeness, and lifetime number of suicide attempts (viewed as a strong predictor of the level of acquired capability for suicide) predicted current suicide attempt (vs. ideation) among a clinical sample of suicidal young adults, again beyond depression indices and other key covariates. Implications for the understanding, treatment, and prevention of suicidal behavior are discussed. PMID:19685959

  3. The choice between allocation principles: amplifying when equality dominates.

    PubMed

    Eek, Daniel; Selart, Marcus

    2009-04-01

    One hundred and ninety participants (95 undergraduates and 95 employees) responded to a factorial survey in which a number of case-based organizational allocation tasks were described. Participants were asked to imagine themselves as employees in fictitious organizations and chose among three allocations of employee-development schemes invested by the manager in different work groups. The allocations regarded how such investments should be allocated between two parties. Participants chose twice, once picking the fairest and once the best allocation. One between-subjects factor varied whether the parties represented social (i.e., choosing among allocations between two different work groups) or temporal comparisons (i.e., choosing among allocations between the present and the following year). Another between-subjects factor varied whether participants' in-group was represented by the parties or not. One allocation maximized the outcome to one party, another maximized the joint outcome received by both parties, and a third provided both parties with equal but lower outcomes. It was predicted that equality, although always deficient to both parties, would be the preferred allocation when parties represented social comparisons and when choices were based on fairness. When parties represented temporal comparisons, and when choices were based on preference, maximizing the joint outcome was hypothesized to be the preferred allocation. Results supported these hypotheses. Against what was predicted, whether the in-group was represented by the parties or not did not moderate the results, indicating that participants' allocation preferences were not affected by self-interest. The main message is that people make sensible distinctions between what they prefer and what they regard as fair. The results were the same for participating students who imagined themselves as being employees and participants who were true employees, suggesting that no serious threats to external

  4. The choice between allocation principles: amplifying when equality dominates.

    PubMed

    Eek, Daniel; Selart, Marcus

    2009-04-01

    One hundred and ninety participants (95 undergraduates and 95 employees) responded to a factorial survey in which a number of case-based organizational allocation tasks were described. Participants were asked to imagine themselves as employees in fictitious organizations and chose among three allocations of employee-development schemes invested by the manager in different work groups. The allocations regarded how such investments should be allocated between two parties. Participants chose twice, once picking the fairest and once the best allocation. One between-subjects factor varied whether the parties represented social (i.e., choosing among allocations between two different work groups) or temporal comparisons (i.e., choosing among allocations between the present and the following year). Another between-subjects factor varied whether participants' in-group was represented by the parties or not. One allocation maximized the outcome to one party, another maximized the joint outcome received by both parties, and a third provided both parties with equal but lower outcomes. It was predicted that equality, although always deficient to both parties, would be the preferred allocation when parties represented social comparisons and when choices were based on fairness. When parties represented temporal comparisons, and when choices were based on preference, maximizing the joint outcome was hypothesized to be the preferred allocation. Results supported these hypotheses. Against what was predicted, whether the in-group was represented by the parties or not did not moderate the results, indicating that participants' allocation preferences were not affected by self-interest. The main message is that people make sensible distinctions between what they prefer and what they regard as fair. The results were the same for participating students who imagined themselves as being employees and participants who were true employees, suggesting that no serious threats to external

  5. A longitudinal test of the theory of planned behavior predicting smoking onset among asthmatic and non-asthmatic adolescents.

    PubMed

    Van De Ven, Monique O M; Engels, Rutger C M E; Otten, Roy; Van Den Eijnden, Regina J J M

    2007-10-01

    Despite the particularly detrimental health risks of smoking for adolescent with asthma, several studies demonstrated higher smoking rates among asthmatic adolescents than among healthy adolescents. To gain insight into underlying mechanisms, longitudinal studies on differences in smoking predictors between asthmatic and non-asthmatic adolescents are essential. This longitudinal study with two waves with an 18 months interval tests the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) among 346 asthmatic adolescents and 3,733 non-asthmatic adolescents aged 12-16 years. Structural equation models were used to test the predictive value of the TPB in these two groups. The results show, consistent with the TPB, that smoking-related cognitions (attitude, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norm) predict smoking onset via intention among both asthmatic and non-asthmatic adolescents. The TPB predicted smoking onset even stronger among adolescents with asthma. These findings may contribute to the development of tailored interventions for the prevention of smoking among asthmatic adolescents.

  6. Synaptic Tagging During Memory Allocation

    PubMed Central

    Rogerson, Thomas; Cai, Denise; Frank, Adam; Sano, Yoshitake; Shobe, Justin; Aranda, Manuel L.; Silva, Alcino J.

    2014-01-01

    There is now compelling evidence that the allocation of memory to specific neurons (neuronal allocation) and synapses (synaptic allocation) in a neurocircuit is not random and that instead specific mechanisms, such as increases in neuronal excitability and synaptic tagging and capture, determine the exact sites where memories are stored. We propose an integrated view of these processes, such that neuronal allocation, synaptic tagging and capture, spine clustering and metaplasticity reflect related aspects of memory allocation mechanisms. Importantly, the properties of these mechanisms suggest a set of rules that profoundly affect how memories are stored and recalled. PMID:24496410

  7. 50 CFR 660.323 - Pacific whiting allocations, allocation attainment, and inseason allocation reapportionment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Pacific whiting allocations, allocation attainment, and inseason allocation reapportionment. 660.323 Section 660.323 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY...) FISHERIES OFF WEST COAST STATES West Coast Groundfish Fisheries § 660.323 Pacific whiting...

  8. A predictive processing theory of sensorimotor contingencies: Explaining the puzzle of perceptual presence and its absence in synesthesia.

    PubMed

    Seth, Anil K

    2014-01-01

    Normal perception involves experiencing objects within perceptual scenes as real, as existing in the world. This property of "perceptual presence" has motivated "sensorimotor theories" which understand perception to involve the mastery of sensorimotor contingencies. However, the mechanistic basis of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery has remained unclear. Sensorimotor theory also struggles to explain instances of perception, such as synesthesia, that appear to lack perceptual presence and for which relevant sensorimotor contingencies are difficult to identify. On alternative "predictive processing" theories, perceptual content emerges from probabilistic inference on the external causes of sensory signals, however, this view has addressed neither the problem of perceptual presence nor synesthesia. Here, I describe a theory of predictive perception of sensorimotor contingencies which (1) accounts for perceptual presence in normal perception, as well as its absence in synesthesia, and (2) operationalizes the notion of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery. The core idea is that generative models underlying perception incorporate explicitly counterfactual elements related to how sensory inputs would change on the basis of a broad repertoire of possible actions, even if those actions are not performed. These "counterfactually-rich" generative models encode sensorimotor contingencies related to repertoires of sensorimotor dependencies, with counterfactual richness determining the degree of perceptual presence associated with a stimulus. While the generative models underlying normal perception are typically counterfactually rich (reflecting a large repertoire of possible sensorimotor dependencies), those underlying synesthetic concurrents are hypothesized to be counterfactually poor. In addition to accounting for the phenomenology of synesthesia, the theory naturally accommodates phenomenological differences between a range of experiential states

  9. A predictive processing theory of sensorimotor contingencies: Explaining the puzzle of perceptual presence and its absence in synesthesia.

    PubMed

    Seth, Anil K

    2014-01-01

    Normal perception involves experiencing objects within perceptual scenes as real, as existing in the world. This property of "perceptual presence" has motivated "sensorimotor theories" which understand perception to involve the mastery of sensorimotor contingencies. However, the mechanistic basis of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery has remained unclear. Sensorimotor theory also struggles to explain instances of perception, such as synesthesia, that appear to lack perceptual presence and for which relevant sensorimotor contingencies are difficult to identify. On alternative "predictive processing" theories, perceptual content emerges from probabilistic inference on the external causes of sensory signals, however, this view has addressed neither the problem of perceptual presence nor synesthesia. Here, I describe a theory of predictive perception of sensorimotor contingencies which (1) accounts for perceptual presence in normal perception, as well as its absence in synesthesia, and (2) operationalizes the notion of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery. The core idea is that generative models underlying perception incorporate explicitly counterfactual elements related to how sensory inputs would change on the basis of a broad repertoire of possible actions, even if those actions are not performed. These "counterfactually-rich" generative models encode sensorimotor contingencies related to repertoires of sensorimotor dependencies, with counterfactual richness determining the degree of perceptual presence associated with a stimulus. While the generative models underlying normal perception are typically counterfactually rich (reflecting a large repertoire of possible sensorimotor dependencies), those underlying synesthetic concurrents are hypothesized to be counterfactually poor. In addition to accounting for the phenomenology of synesthesia, the theory naturally accommodates phenomenological differences between a range of experiential states

  10. Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

    PubMed

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

  11. Fear of death in older adults: predictions from terror management theory.

    PubMed

    Cicirelli, Victor G

    2002-07-01

    Terror management theory asserts that death fear (fear of annihilation) is buffered by self-esteem and beliefs in literal and symbolic immortality achieved through participation in the cultural system. The aims of this study were to determine how variables suggested by the theory were related to fear of death measures. Participants were 123 Black and 265 White elders aged 60 to 100 years; they were assessed on the Multidimensional Fear of Death Scale (MFODS), self-esteem, religiosity, locus of control, socioeconomic status, social support, and health. Regression analysis findings ( p <.05) offered partial support to the theory, with greater Fear of the Unknown (fear of annihilation) related to weaker religiosity, less social support, and greater externality; the effect of self-esteem was mediated by externality. Other predictors were related to an overall fear score based on the remaining 7 MFODS subscales. Findings are interpreted in terms of changing sources of self-esteem in old age.

  12. Development of an aerodyanmic theory capable of predicting surface loads on slender wings with vortex flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gloss, B. B.; Johnson, F. T.

    1976-01-01

    The Boeing Commercial Airplane Company developed an inviscid three-dimensional lifting surface method that shows promise in being able to accurately predict loads, subsonic and supersonic, on wings with leading-edge separation and reattachment.

  13. An online study combining the constructs from the theory of planned behaviour and protection motivation theory in predicting intention to test for chlamydia in two testing contexts.

    PubMed

    Powell, Rachael; Pattison, Helen M; Francis, Jill J

    2016-01-01

    Chlamydia is a common sexually transmitted infection that has potentially serious consequences unless detected and treated early. The health service in the UK offers clinic-based testing for chlamydia but uptake is low. Identifying the predictors of testing behaviours may inform interventions to increase uptake. Self-tests for chlamydia may facilitate testing and treatment in people who avoid clinic-based testing. Self-testing and being tested by a health care professional (HCP) involve two contrasting contexts that may influence testing behaviour. However, little is known about how predictors of behaviour differ as a function of context. In this study, theoretical models of behaviour were used to assess factors that may predict intention to test in two different contexts: self-testing and being tested by a HCP. Individuals searching for or reading about chlamydia testing online were recruited using Google Adwords. Participants completed an online questionnaire that addressed previous testing behaviour and measured constructs of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Protection Motivation Theory, which propose a total of eight possible predictors of intention. The questionnaire was completed by 310 participants. Sufficient data for multiple regression were provided by 102 and 118 respondents for self-testing and testing by a HCP respectively. Intention to self-test was predicted by vulnerability and self-efficacy, with a trend-level effect for response efficacy. Intention to be tested by a HCP was predicted by vulnerability, attitude and subjective norm. Thus, intentions to carry out two testing behaviours with very similar goals can have different predictors depending on test context. We conclude that interventions to increase self-testing should be based on evidence specifically related to test context.

  14. An online study combining the constructs from the theory of planned behaviour and protection motivation theory in predicting intention to test for chlamydia in two testing contexts.

    PubMed

    Powell, Rachael; Pattison, Helen M; Francis, Jill J

    2016-01-01

    Chlamydia is a common sexually transmitted infection that has potentially serious consequences unless detected and treated early. The health service in the UK offers clinic-based testing for chlamydia but uptake is low. Identifying the predictors of testing behaviours may inform interventions to increase uptake. Self-tests for chlamydia may facilitate testing and treatment in people who avoid clinic-based testing. Self-testing and being tested by a health care professional (HCP) involve two contrasting contexts that may influence testing behaviour. However, little is known about how predictors of behaviour differ as a function of context. In this study, theoretical models of behaviour were used to assess factors that may predict intention to test in two different contexts: self-testing and being tested by a HCP. Individuals searching for or reading about chlamydia testing online were recruited using Google Adwords. Participants completed an online questionnaire that addressed previous testing behaviour and measured constructs of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Protection Motivation Theory, which propose a total of eight possible predictors of intention. The questionnaire was completed by 310 participants. Sufficient data for multiple regression were provided by 102 and 118 respondents for self-testing and testing by a HCP respectively. Intention to self-test was predicted by vulnerability and self-efficacy, with a trend-level effect for response efficacy. Intention to be tested by a HCP was predicted by vulnerability, attitude and subjective norm. Thus, intentions to carry out two testing behaviours with very similar goals can have different predictors depending on test context. We conclude that interventions to increase self-testing should be based on evidence specifically related to test context. PMID:25929700

  15. Relationships between tree size, crown shape, gender segregation and sex allocation in Pinus halepensis, a Mediterranean pine tree

    PubMed Central

    Ne'eman, Gidi; Goubitz, Shirrinka; Werger, Marinus J. A.; Shmida, Avi

    2011-01-01

    Background and Aims Sex allocation has been studied mainly in small herbaceous plants but much less in monoecious wind-pollinated trees. The aim of this study was to explore changes in gender segregation and sex allocation by Pinus halepensis, a Mediterranean lowland pine tree, within tree crowns and between trees differing in their size or crown shape. Methods The production of new male and female cones and sex allocation of biomass, nitrogen and phosphorus were studied. The relationship between branch location, its reproductive status and proxies of branch vigour was also studied. Key Results Small trees produced only female cones, but, as trees grew, they produced both male and female cones. Female cones were produced mainly in the upper part of the crown, and male cones in its middle and lower parts. Lateral branch density was correlated with the number of male but not female cones; lateral branches were more dense in large than in small trees and even denser in hemispherical trees. Apical branches grew faster, were thicker and their phosphorus concentration was higher than in lateral shoots. Nitrogen concentration was higher in cone-bearing apical branches than in apical vegetative branches and in lateral branches with or without cones. Allocation to male relative to female function increased with tree size as predicted by sex allocation theory. Conclusions The adaptive values of sex allocation and gender segregation patterns in P. halepensis, in relation to its unique life history, are demonstrated and discussed. Small trees produce only female cones that have a higher probability of being pollinated than the probability of male cones pollinating; the female-first strategy enhances population spread. Hemispherical old trees are loaded with serotinous cones that supply enough seeds for post-fire germination; thus, allocation to males is more beneficial than to females. PMID:21586528

  16. Assessment of factors that predict physical activity among Oklahoma clergy: a theory of planned behavior approach.

    PubMed

    Gwin, Shannon; Taylor, E Laurette; Branscum, Paul; Hofford, Craig

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine predictors of physical activity among clergy members in Oklahoma, using the theory of planned behavior. A 51-item valid and reliable instrument, measuring theory of planned behavior constructs and physical activity, was developed and administered to 141 clergy members. Results indicated that the majority of those surveyed were white (93%), college educated (97%), and overweight or obese (84%). Stepwise multiple regression analysis found that intentions accounted for 13.8% of the variance of physical activity whereas attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control accounted for 54.8% of the variance of intention. Implications for intervention development are discussed.

  17. Wide brick tunnel randomization - an unequal allocation procedure that limits the imbalance in treatment totals.

    PubMed

    Kuznetsova, Olga M; Tymofyeyev, Yevgen

    2014-04-30

    In open-label studies, partial predictability of permuted block randomization provides potential for selection bias. To lessen the selection bias in two-arm studies with equal allocation, a number of allocation procedures that limit the imbalance in treatment totals at a pre-specified level but do not require the exact balance at the ends of the blocks were developed. In studies with unequal allocation, however, the task of designing a randomization procedure that sets a pre-specified limit on imbalance in group totals is not resolved. Existing allocation procedures either do not preserve the allocation ratio at every allocation or do not include all allocation sequences that comply with the pre-specified imbalance threshold. Kuznetsova and Tymofyeyev described the brick tunnel randomization for studies with unequal allocation that preserves the allocation ratio at every step and, in the two-arm case, includes all sequences that satisfy the smallest possible imbalance threshold. This article introduces wide brick tunnel randomization for studies with unequal allocation that allows all allocation sequences with imbalance not exceeding any pre-specified threshold while preserving the allocation ratio at every step. In open-label studies, allowing a larger imbalance in treatment totals lowers selection bias because of the predictability of treatment assignments. The applications of the technique in two-arm and multi-arm open-label studies with unequal allocation are described.

  18. Predicting mothers' decisions to introduce complementary feeding at 6 months. An investigation using an extended theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Kyra; Daniels, Lynne; White, Katherine M; Murray, Nicole; Walsh, Anne

    2011-06-01

    In Australia and other developed countries there is poor adherence to guidelines recommending the introduction of complementary feeding to infants at 6 months of age. We aimed to investigate, via adopting a theory of planned behaviour framework and incorporating additional normative and demographic influences, mothers' complementary feeding intentions and behaviour. Participants were 375 primiparas who completed an initial questionnaire (infant age 13±3 weeks) that assessed the theory of planned behaviour constructs of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control, as well as group norm and additional maternal and infant variables of mothers' age, education level, weight status perception, current maternal feeding practices, and infant birth weight. Approximately, 3 months after completion of the main questionnaire, mothers completed a follow-up questionnaire that assessed the age in months at which the infant was first introduced to solids. The theory of planned behaviour variables of attitude and subjective norm, along with group norm, predicted intentions, with intention, mothers' age (older more likely), and weight status perception (overweight less likely) predicting behaviour. Overall, the results highlight the importance of attitudes, normative influences, and individual characteristics in complementary feeding decision-making which should be considered when designing interventions aimed at improving adherence to current maternal feeding guidelines.

  19. Confirmation of linear system theory prediction: Rate of change of Herrnstein's kappa as a function of response-force requirement.

    PubMed

    McDowell, J J; Wood, H M

    1985-01-01

    Four human subjects worked on all combinations of five variable-interval schedules and five reinforcer magnitudes ( cent/reinforcer) in each of two phases of the experiment. In one phase the force requirement on the operandum was low (1 or 11 N) and in the other it was high (25 or 146 N). Estimates of Herrnstein's kappa were obtained at each reinforcer magnitude. The results were: (1) response rate was more sensitive to changes in reinforcement rate at the high than at the low force requirement, (2) kappa increased from the beginning to the end of the magnitude range for all subjects at both force requirements, (3) the reciprocal of kappa was a linear function of the reciprocal of reinforcer magnitude for seven of the eight data sets, and (4) the rate of change of kappa was greater at the high than at the low force requirement by an order of magnitude or more. The second and third findings confirm predictions made by linear system theory, and replicate the results of an earlier experiment (McDowell & Wood, 1984). The fourth finding confirms a further prediction of the theory and supports the theory's interpretation of conflicting data on the constancy of Herrnstein's kappa.

  20. Confirmation of linear system theory prediction: Rate of change of Herrnstein's κ as a function of response-force requirement

    PubMed Central

    McDowell, J. J; Wood, Helena M.

    1985-01-01

    Four human subjects worked on all combinations of five variable-interval schedules and five reinforcer magnitudes (¢/reinforcer) in each of two phases of the experiment. In one phase the force requirement on the operandum was low (1 or 11 N) and in the other it was high (25 or 146 N). Estimates of Herrnstein's κ were obtained at each reinforcer magnitude. The results were: (1) response rate was more sensitive to changes in reinforcement rate at the high than at the low force requirement, (2) κ increased from the beginning to the end of the magnitude range for all subjects at both force requirements, (3) the reciprocal of κ was a linear function of the reciprocal of reinforcer magnitude for seven of the eight data sets, and (4) the rate of change of κ was greater at the high than at the low force requirement by an order of magnitude or more. The second and third findings confirm predictions made by linear system theory, and replicate the results of an earlier experiment (McDowell & Wood, 1984). The fourth finding confirms a further prediction of the theory and supports the theory's interpretation of conflicting data on the constancy of Herrnstein's κ. PMID:16812408

  1. Application of social cognitive theory in predicting childhood obesity prevention behaviors in overweight and obese Iranian adolescents.

    PubMed

    Bagherniya, Mohammad; Sharma, Manoj; Mostafavi, Firoozeh; Keshavarz, Seyed Ali

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this cross-sectional study was to use social cognitive theory to predict overweight and obesity behaviors in adolescent girls in Iran. Valid and reliable questionnaires about nutritional and physical activity regarding social cognitive theory constructs (self-efficacy, social support, outcome expectations, and outcome expectancies), dietary habits, and physical activity were filled by 172 overweight and obese girl adolescents. The mean age and body mass index were 13.4 ± 0.6 years and 28.2 ± 3.6 kg/m(2), respectively. Body mass index was significantly related to hours of television viewing (p = .003) and grams of junk food (p = .001). None of the social cognitive theory constructs were found to be significant predictors for servings of fruits and vegetables, grams of junk foods, minutes of physical activity, and hours of sedentary behaviors. In future, more culturally appropriate models need to be developed in Iran that can explain and predict prevention behaviors of obesity in Iranian adolescents.

  2. Ethics and resource allocation: an economist's view.

    PubMed

    McGuire, A

    1986-01-01

    This paper debates some of the issues involved in attempting to apply economic analysis to the health care sector when medical ethics plays such an important part in determining the allocation of resources in that sector. Two distinct ethical positions are highlighted as being fundamental to the understanding of resource allocation in this sector -- deontological and utilitarian theories of ethics. It is argued that medical ethics are often narrowly conceived in that there is a tendency for the individual, rather than society at large, to form the focal point of the production of the service "health care'. Thus medical ethics have been dominated by individualistic ethical coded which do not fully consider questions relating to resource allocation at a social level. It is further argued that the structure of the health care sector augments these "individualistic' ethics. It is also suggested that different actors in the health care sector address questions of resource allocation with respect to different time periods, and that this serves to further enhance the influence of "individualistic' ethical codes in this sector.

  3. Exploration of pathological prediction of chronic kidney diseases by a novel theory of bi-directional probability

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yuan; Luo, Min; Xiao, Li; Zhu, Xue-jing; Wang, Chang; Fu, Xiao; Yuan, Shu-guang; Xiao, Fang; Liu, Hong; Dong, Zheng; Liu, Fu-you; Sun, Lin

    2016-01-01

    In the clinic, the pathological types of chronic kidney diseases (CKD) are considered references for choosing treatment protocols. From a statistical viewpoint, a non-invasive method to predict pathological types of CKD is a focus of our work. In the current study, following a frequency analysis of the clinical indices of 588 CKD patients in the department of nephrology, a third-grade class-A hospital, a novel theory is proposed: “bi-directional cumulative probability dichotomy”. Further, two models for the prediction and differential diagnosis of CKD pathological type are established. The former indicates an occurrence probability of the pathological types, and the latter indicates an occurrence of CKD pathological type according to logistic binary regression. To verify the models, data were collected from 135 patients, and the results showed that the highest accuracy rate on membranous nephropathy (MN-100%), followed by IgA nephropathy (IgAN-83.33%) and mild lesion type (MLN-73.53%), whereas lower prediction accuracy was observed for mesangial proliferative glomerulonephritis (0%) and focal segmental sclerosis type (21.74%). The models of bi-directional probability prediction and differential diagnosis indicate a good prediction value in MN, IgAN and MLN and may be considered alternative methods for the pathological discrimination of CKD patients who are unable to undergo renal biopsy. PMID:27557856

  4. Exploration of pathological prediction of chronic kidney diseases by a novel theory of bi-directional probability.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yuan; Luo, Min; Xiao, Li; Zhu, Xue-Jing; Wang, Chang; Fu, Xiao; Yuan, Shu-Guang; Xiao, Fang; Liu, Hong; Dong, Zheng; Liu, Fu-You; Sun, Lin

    2016-01-01

    In the clinic, the pathological types of chronic kidney diseases (CKD) are considered references for choosing treatment protocols. From a statistical viewpoint, a non-invasive method to predict pathological types of CKD is a focus of our work. In the current study, following a frequency analysis of the clinical indices of 588 CKD patients in the department of nephrology, a third-grade class-A hospital, a novel theory is proposed: "bi-directional cumulative probability dichotomy". Further, two models for the prediction and differential diagnosis of CKD pathological type are established. The former indicates an occurrence probability of the pathological types, and the latter indicates an occurrence of CKD pathological type according to logistic binary regression. To verify the models, data were collected from 135 patients, and the results showed that the highest accuracy rate on membranous nephropathy (MN-100%), followed by IgA nephropathy (IgAN-83.33%) and mild lesion type (MLN-73.53%), whereas lower prediction accuracy was observed for mesangial proliferative glomerulonephritis (0%) and focal segmental sclerosis type (21.74%). The models of bi-directional probability prediction and differential diagnosis indicate a good prediction value in MN, IgAN and MLN and may be considered alternative methods for the pathological discrimination of CKD patients who are unable to undergo renal biopsy. PMID:27557856

  5. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior to Explain and Predict Behavior Intentions in Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Cheng-Lung

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to use the theory of planned behavior to verify undergraduates' behavioral intentions regarding their participation in aquatic sports. Undergraduates in Taiwan serve as the research subjects and a survey method employs questionnaires. A total of 200 valid questionnaires were received out of 230, thus giving a valid response rate of…

  6. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict Mothers' Intentions to Vaccinate Their Daughters against HPV

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Askelson, Natoshia M.; Campo, Shelly; Lowe, John B.; Smith, Sandi; Dennis, Leslie K.; Andsager, Julie

    2010-01-01

    This study assessed mothers' intentions to vaccinate their daughters against human papillomavirus (HPV) using the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Experience with sexually transmitted infections (STIs), beliefs about the vaccine encouraging sexual activity, and perception of daughters' risk for HPV were also examined for a relationship with…

  7. Geometrical symmetries in atomic nuclei: From theory predictions to experimental verifications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dudek, J.; Góźdź, A.; Molique, H.; Curien, D.

    2013-02-01

    In the lectures delivered at the 2012 Predeal School an overview has been presented of the contemporary theory of the nuclear geometrical (shape) symmetries. The formalism combines two most powerful theory tools applicable in the context: The group- and group-representation theory together with the modern realistic mean-field theory. We suggest that all point-groups of symmetry of the mean-field Hamiltonian, sufficiently rich in symmetry elements (as discussed in the text) may lead to the magic numbers that characterise such a group in analogy with the spherical magic gaps characterising nuclear sphericity. We discuss in simple terms the mathematical and physical arguments for the presence of such symmetries in nuclei. In our opinion: It is not so much the question of Whether? - but rather: Where in the Nuclear Chart several of the point group-symmetries will be seen? We focus our presentation on the tetrahedral symmetry with the magic numbers calculated to be 32, 40, 56, 64, 70, 90 and 136, and discuss qualitatively the problem of the formulation of the experimental criteria which would allow for the final discovery of the tetrahedral symmetry in subatomic physics.

  8. Optimization theory fails to predict performance of pigeons in a two-response situation.

    PubMed

    Mazur, J E

    1981-11-13

    Optimization theory states that organisms behave in a way that maximizes reinforcement or "value." In a two-response situation, pigeons' response proportions approximately equaled reinforcement proportions, even when this behavior pattern substantially decreased the rate of reinforcement. Optimization or reinforcement maximization was not supported as the basic mechanism underlying choice behavior.

  9. Self-Identity as a Component of the Theory of Planned Behaviour in Predicting Physical Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ries, Francis; Hein, Vello; Pihu, Maret; Armenta, Jose Manuel Sevillano

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the role of self-identity, defined as salient and enduring aspects of one's self-perception (Sparks, 2000), in relation to adolescent physical activity (PA) intentions within the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). School students aged 12 to 18 from two cultural groups (Estonia and Spain) completed measures of…

  10. Dopamine Receptor D4 Gene Variation Predicts Preschoolers' Developing Theory of Mind

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lackner, Christine; Sabbagh, Mark A.; Hallinan, Elizabeth; Liu, Xudong; Holden, Jeanette J. A.

    2012-01-01

    Individual differences in preschoolers' understanding that human action is caused by internal mental states, or representational theory of mind (RTM), are heritable, as are developmental disorders such as autism in which RTM is particularly impaired. We investigated whether polymorphisms of genes affecting dopamine (DA) utilization and metabolism…

  11. Predicting Aerobic versus Resistance Exercise Using the Theory of Planned Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bryan, Angela D.; Rocheleau, Courtney A.

    2002-01-01

    Tested the theory of planned behavior (TPB) in aerobic versus resistance training, investigating relationships between TPB variables, extroversion, and perceived health among college students who completed initial and follow-up measurements and provided reasons for exercise. TPB variables, extroversion, and perceived health collectively accounted…

  12. Executive Function and Theory of Mind: Stability and Prediction From Ages 2 to 3

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlson, Stephanie M.; Mandell, Dorothy J.; Williams, Luke

    2004-01-01

    Several studies have demonstrated a relation between executive functioning (EF) and theory of mind (ToM) in preschoolers, yet the developmental course of this relation remains unknown. Longitudinal stability and EF-ToM relations were examined in 81 children at 24 and 39 months. At Time 1, EF was unrelated to behavioral measures of ToM but was…

  13. Testing Processability Theory in L2 Spanish: Can Readiness or Markedness Predict Development?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonilla, Carrie L.

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this dissertation is to test the five stages of Processability Theory (PT) for second language (L2) learners of Spanish and investigate how instruction can facilitate the development through the stages. PT details five fixed stages in the acquisition of L2 morphosyntax based on principles of speech processing (Levelt, 1989) and modeled…

  14. Predictions about Bisymmetry and Cross-Modal Matches from Global Theories of Subjective Intensities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luce, R. Duncan

    2012-01-01

    The article first summarizes the assumptions of Luce (2004, 2008) for inherently binary (2-D) stimuli (e.g., the ears and eyes) that lead to a "p-additive," order-preserving psychophysical representation. Next, a somewhat parallel theory for unary (1-D) signals is developed for intensity attributes such as linear extent, vibration to finger, and…

  15. Application of Investment Theory to Predicting Maintenance of the Intent to Stay among Freshmen

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barry, Chloe Y. H.; Okun, Morris A.

    2012-01-01

    Recently, it has been suggested that constructs from different disciplines should be incorporated into Tinto's (1993) sociological model of the determinants of departure from college (Ackerman & Schibrowsky, 2007). We tested the hypothesis that variables derived from Rusbult's (1983) social-psychological investment theory contribute, above and…

  16. Social Cognitive Career Theory and the Prediction of Interests and Choice Goals in the Computing Disciplines

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lent, Robert W.; Lopez, Antonio M., Jr.; Lopez, Frederick G.; Sheu, Hung-Bin

    2008-01-01

    We tested the fit of the social cognitive choice model [Lent, R.W., Brown, S.D., & Hackett, G. (1994). "Toward a unifying social cognitive theory of career and academic interest, choice, and performance [Monograph]." "Journal of Vocational Behavior," 45, 79-122] to the data across gender, educational level, and type of university among students in…

  17. Predicting Online Learning Success: Applying the Situational Theory of Publics to the Virtual Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kruger-Ross, Matthew J.; Waters, Richard D.

    2013-01-01

    Following the trend of increased interest by students to take online courses and by institutions to offer them, scholars have taken many different approaches to understand what makes one student successful in online learning while another may fail. This study proposes that using the situational theory of publics will provide a better understanding…

  18. Theory of Mind Predicts Emotion Knowledge Development in Head Start Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seidenfeld, Adina M.; Johnson, Stacy R.; Cavadel, Elizabeth Woodburn; Izard, Carroll E.

    2014-01-01

    Research Findings: Emotion knowledge (EK) enables children to identify emotions in themselves and others, and its development facilitates emotion recognition in complex social situations. Sociocognitive processes, such as theory of mind (ToM), may contribute to developing EK by helping children realize the inherent variability associated with…

  19. Minority Threat, Crime Control, and Police Resource Allocation in the Southwestern United States

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holmes, Malcolm D.; Smith, Brad W.; Freng, Adrienne B.; Munoz, Ed A.

    2008-01-01

    Numerous studies have examined political influences on communities' allocations of fiscal and personnel resources to policing. Rational choice theory maintains that these resources are distributed in accordance with the need for crime control, whereas conflict theory argues that they are allocated with the aim of controlling racial and ethnic…

  20. Quantum theory of interfacial tension quantitatively predicts spontaneous charging of nonpolar aqueous interfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernández, Ariel

    2015-10-01

    The spontaneous negative charging of aqueous nonpolar interfaces has eluded quantitative first-principle prediction, possibly because it steadfastly challenges the classical Debye dielectric picture. In this work we show that quantitative prediction requires a substantive revision of Debye's linear dielectric ansatz to incorporate an anomalous polarization component yielding electrostatic energy stored as interfacial tension and detailed enough to account for the differences in electronic structure between water and its ionized states. The minimization of this interfacial tension is due to a quantum effect resulting in the reduction in hydrogen-bond frustration that takes place upon hydroxide ion adsorption. The quantitative predictions are validated vis-à-vis measurements of the free energy change associated with hydroxide adsorption obtained using sum-frequency vibrational spectroscopy.

  1. Predicting safe sex: Assessment of autoregressive and cross-lagged effects within the Theory of Planned Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Eggers, Sander M; Taylor, Myra; Sathiparsad, Reshma; Bos, Arjan ER; de Vries, Hein

    2015-01-01

    Despite its popularity, few studies have assessed the temporal stability and cross-lagged effects of the Theory of Planned Behavior factors: Attitude, subjective norms and self-efficacy. For this study, 298 adolescent learners from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, filled out a Theory of Planned Behavior questionnaire on teenage pregnancy at baseline and after 6 months. Structural equation modeling showed that there were considerable cross-lagged effects between attitude and subjective norms. Temporal stability was moderate with test–retest correlations ranging from 0.37 to 0.51 and the model was able to predict intentions to have safe sex (R2 = 0.69) Implications for practice and future research are discussed. PMID:24296737

  2. Comparison between the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory: predicting incontinence prevention behaviour in post-partum women.

    PubMed

    Dolman, M; Chase, J

    1996-08-01

    A small-scale study was undertaken to test the relative predictive power of the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory for the uptake of a behaviour (pelvic floor exercises) to reduce post-partum urinary incontinence in primigravida females. A structured questionnaire was used to gather data relevant to both models from a sample antenatal and postnatal primigravida women. Questions examined the perceived probability of becoming incontinent, the perceived (dis)utility of incontinence, the perceived probability of pelvic floor exercises preventing future urinary incontinence, the costs and benefits of performing pelvic floor exercises and sources of information and knowledge about incontinence. Multiple regression analysis focused on whether or not respondents intended to perform pelvic floor exercises and the factors influencing their decisions. Aggregated data were analysed to compare the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory directly. PMID:9238593

  3. Predicting safe sex: Assessment of autoregressive and cross-lagged effects within the Theory of Planned Behavior.

    PubMed

    Eggers, Sander M; Taylor, Myra; Sathiparsad, Reshma; Bos, Arjan Er; de Vries, Hein

    2015-11-01

    Despite its popularity, few studies have assessed the temporal stability and cross-lagged effects of the Theory of Planned Behavior factors: Attitude, subjective norms and self-efficacy. For this study, 298 adolescent learners from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, filled out a Theory of Planned Behavior questionnaire on teenage pregnancy at baseline and after 6 months. Structural equation modeling showed that there were considerable cross-lagged effects between attitude and subjective norms. Temporal stability was moderate with test-retest correlations ranging from 0.37 to 0.51 and the model was able to predict intentions to have safe sex (R2 = 0.69) Implications for practice and future research are discussed.

  4. [Prevention of HIV transmission: application of the theory of reasoned action to the prediction of condom use].

    PubMed

    Diaz-loving, R; Rivera Aragon, S

    1995-01-01

    1203 sexually active workers in six government agencies in Mexico City participated in a study of the applicability of the theory of reasoned action to prediction of condom use for AIDS prevention. The theory of reasoned action is one of a series of models of attitudes that have had consistent success in predicting various types of intentions and behaviors, especially in the area of sexual and contraceptive behavior. The theory specifies that the intention of executing a particular behavior is determined as the function of attitude toward the behavior and a social factor termed "subjective norm", referring to the perception of social pressure supporting or opposing a particular behavior. The 1203 subjects, who ranged from low to high educational and socioeconomic status, completed self-administered questionnaires concerning their beliefs, attitudes, and intentions regarding condom use, motivation to comply with the subjective norm, and actual condom use. Various scales were constructed to measure the different components of the theory. Hierarchical regression analysis was carried out separately for men and women and for condom use with regular or occasional partners. The model explained over 20% of condom use behavior. The total explained variance was similar in all groups, but the components of the model determining the variance were different. Personal beliefs and attitudes were more important in reference to occasional sexual partners, but the subjective norm and motivation to comply with the reference group were more important with regular sexual partners. The results demonstrate the need for interventions to be adapted to gender groups and in reference to regular or occasional partners.

  5. A predictive processing theory of sensorimotor contingencies: Explaining the puzzle of perceptual presence and its absence in synesthesia

    PubMed Central

    Seth, Anil K.

    2014-01-01

    Normal perception involves experiencing objects within perceptual scenes as real, as existing in the world. This property of “perceptual presence” has motivated “sensorimotor theories” which understand perception to involve the mastery of sensorimotor contingencies. However, the mechanistic basis of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery has remained unclear. Sensorimotor theory also struggles to explain instances of perception, such as synesthesia, that appear to lack perceptual presence and for which relevant sensorimotor contingencies are difficult to identify. On alternative “predictive processing” theories, perceptual content emerges from probabilistic inference on the external causes of sensory signals, however, this view has addressed neither the problem of perceptual presence nor synesthesia. Here, I describe a theory of predictive perception of sensorimotor contingencies which (1) accounts for perceptual presence in normal perception, as well as its absence in synesthesia, and (2) operationalizes the notion of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery. The core idea is that generative models underlying perception incorporate explicitly counterfactual elements related to how sensory inputs would change on the basis of a broad repertoire of possible actions, even if those actions are not performed. These “counterfactually-rich” generative models encode sensorimotor contingencies related to repertoires of sensorimotor dependencies, with counterfactual richness determining the degree of perceptual presence associated with a stimulus. While the generative models underlying normal perception are typically counterfactually rich (reflecting a large repertoire of possible sensorimotor dependencies), those underlying synesthetic concurrents are hypothesized to be counterfactually poor. In addition to accounting for the phenomenology of synesthesia, the theory naturally accommodates phenomenological differences between a range of experiential

  6. Computationally efficient control allocation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durham, Wayne (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A computationally efficient method for calculating near-optimal solutions to the three-objective, linear control allocation problem is disclosed. The control allocation problem is that of distributing the effort of redundant control effectors to achieve some desired set of objectives. The problem is deemed linear if control effectiveness is affine with respect to the individual control effectors. The optimal solution is that which exploits the collective maximum capability of the effectors within their individual physical limits. Computational efficiency is measured by the number of floating-point operations required for solution. The method presented returned optimal solutions in more than 90% of the cases examined; non-optimal solutions returned by the method were typically much less than 1% different from optimal and the errors tended to become smaller than 0.01% as the number of controls was increased. The magnitude of the errors returned by the present method was much smaller than those that resulted from either pseudo inverse or cascaded generalized inverse solutions. The computational complexity of the method presented varied linearly with increasing numbers of controls; the number of required floating point operations increased from 5.5 i, to seven times faster than did the minimum-norm solution (the pseudoinverse), and at about the same rate as did the cascaded generalized inverse solution. The computational requirements of the method presented were much better than that of previously described facet-searching methods which increase in proportion to the square of the number of controls.

  7. Confirmation of linear system theory prediction: Changes in Herrnstein's k as a function of changes in reinforcer magnitude.

    PubMed

    McDowell, J J; Wood, H M

    1984-03-01

    Eight human subjects pressed a lever on a range of variable-interval schedules for 0.25 cent to 35.0 cent per reinforcement. Herrnstein's hyperbola described seven of the eight subjects' response-rate data well. For all subjects, the y-asymptote of the hyperbola increased with increasing reinforcer magnitude and its reciprocal was a linear function of the reciprocal of reinforcer magnitude. These results confirm predictions made by linear system theory; they contradict formal properties of Herrnstein's account and of six other mathematical accounts of single-alternative responding.

  8. Confirmation of linear system theory prediction: Changes in Herrnstein's k as a function of changes in reinforcer magnitude

    PubMed Central

    McDowell, J. J; Wood, Helena M.

    1984-01-01

    Eight human subjects pressed a lever on a range of variable-interval schedules for 0.25¢ to 35.0¢ per reinforcement. Herrnstein's hyperbola described seven of the eight subjects' response-rate data well. For all subjects, the y-asymptote of the hyperbola increased with increasing reinforcer magnitude and its reciprocal was a linear function of the reciprocal of reinforcer magnitude. These results confirm predictions made by linear system theory; they contradict formal properties of Herrnstein's account and of six other mathematical accounts of single-alternative responding. PMID:16812366

  9. Using the theory of planned behavior to predict self-medication with over-the-counter analgesics.

    PubMed

    Pineles, Lisa L; Parente, Rick

    2013-12-01

    Millions of people worldwide use over-the-counter analgesics on a regular basis; yet little is known about how decisions to self-medicate are made. This study used the theory of planned behavior to explore the influence of beliefs about medicines (Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire) and individual pain experience as predictors of intent to self-medicate. Both emerged as significant predictors of intent to self-medicate. Furthermore, intent to self-medicate significantly predicted reported use of analgesics. These findings indicate that use of over-the-counter pain medication is more likely when the value of the pain relief is greater than concerns about harm.

  10. Further studies using matched filter theory and stochastic simulation for gust loads prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scott, Robert C.; Pototzky, Anthony S.; Perry, Boyd Iii

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes two analysis methods -- one deterministic, the other stochastic -- for computing maximized and time-correlated gust loads for aircraft with nonlinear control systems. The first method is based on matched filter theory; the second is based on stochastic simulation. The paper summarizes the methods, discusses the selection of gust intensity for each method and presents numerical results. A strong similarity between the results from the two methods is seen to exist for both linear and nonlinear configurations.

  11. Irving Langmuir Prize Lecture - A predictive theory of transition metal surface catalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norskov, Jens

    2015-03-01

    The lecture will outline a theory of heterogeneous catalysis that allows a detailed understanding of elementary chemical processes at transition metal surfaces and singles out the most important parameters determining catalytic activity and selectivity. It will be shown how scaling relations allow the identification of descriptors of catalytic activity and how they can be used to construct activity and selectivity maps. The maps can be used to define catalyst design rules and examples of their use will be given.

  12. Further studies using matched filter theory and stochastic simulation for gust loads prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scott, Robert C.; Pototzky, Anthony S.; Perry, Boyd, III

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes two analysis methods - one deterministic, the other stochastic - for computing maximized and time-correlated gust loads for aircraft with nonlinear control systems. The first method is based on matched filter theory; the second is based on stochastic simulation. The paper summarizes the methods, discusses the selection of gust intensity for each method and presents numerical results. A strong similarity between the results from the two methods is seen to exist for both linear and nonlinear configurations.

  13. GEMS (Gravity Electro-Magnetism Strong) SU(5) Theory and The Prediction of Exchange Boson Masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandenburg, John

    2012-10-01

    The GEMS SU(5) [1] theory includes short range Nuclear Forces in the GEM unification theory [2], where the importance of the square root of the proton-electron mass ratio: σ = 42.8503 was found. The creation of mass by a Higgs field coupling must, by the Equivalence Principle, be viewed in the context of General Relativity. This is done here using Kaluza-Klein theory in a Feynman-Hawkings path integral formalism. GEM theory, quantum concepts of virtual particles, and ZPF (Zero Point Fluctuation) allow understanding of the Strong Force and Weak forces as the extension of electrodynamics in the quantum limit. The Strong and Weak forces are found to be associated with EM models of the electron and proton as finite sized structures respectively. Higher order Mie resonances off the EM ``mass at a distance'' structures associated with the electron, proton and fifth dimension generate the quanta with masses of the pion mπ = 2 me /α 140.0 MeV and Z boson: mZ = 2σ mp = 80.4 GeV. The ηc meson mη = 2980 GeV is identified with the 5^th dimension compactification force mediated by the Radion field. Another particle associated with this mass inducing field is the ``Radion'' or Higgs scattering quanta off the fifth dimension with a mass σmη 128.6 GeV which is the Higgs Boson. A GEMS SU(5) Georgi-Glashow model, is proposed, where the unification energy is now the Planck energy.[0pt] [1] Brandenburg, J.E. (2012)., STAIF II Conference Albuquerque NM[0pt] [2] Brandenburg, J.E. (2007). IEEE Transactions On Plasma Science, Vol. 35, No. 4., p845.

  14. Ligand field density functional theory for the prediction of future domestic lighting.

    PubMed

    Ramanantoanina, Harry; Urland, Werner; García-Fuente, Amador; Cimpoesu, Fanica; Daul, Claude

    2014-07-28

    We deal with the computational determination of the electronic structure and properties of lanthanide ions in complexes and extended structures having open-shell f and d configurations. Particularly, we present conceptual and methodological issues based on Density Functional Theory (DFT) enabling the reliable calculation and description of the f → d transitions in lanthanide doped phosphors. We consider here the optical properties of the Pr(3+) ion embedded into various solid state fluoride host lattices, for the prospection and understanding of the so-called quantum cutting process, being important in the further quest of warm-white light source in light emitting diodes (LED). We use the conceptual formulation of the revisited ligand field (LF) theory, fully compatibilized with the quantum chemistry tools: LFDFT. We present methodological advances for the calculations of the Slater-Condon parameters, the ligand field interaction and the spin-orbit coupling constants, important in the non-empirical parameterization of the effective Hamiltonian adjusted from the ligand field theory. The model shows simple procedure using less sophisticated computational tools, which is intended to contribute to the design of modern phosphors and to help to complement the understanding of the 4f(n) → 4f(n-1)5d(1) transitions in any lanthanide system.

  15. Individual Differences in Executive Functioning Predict Preschoolers' Improvement from Theory-of-Mind Training

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benson, Jeannette E.; Sabbagh, Mark A.; Carlson, Stephanie M.; Zelazo, Philip David

    2013-01-01

    Twenty-four 3.5-year-old children who initially showed poor performance on false-belief tasks participated in a training protocol designed to promote performance on these tasks. Our aim was to determine whether the extent to which children benefited from training was predicted by their performance on a battery of executive functioning tasks.…

  16. Posterior Predictive Model Checking for Conjunctive Multidimensionality in Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy

    2011-01-01

    If data exhibit multidimensionality, key conditional independence assumptions of unidimensional models do not hold. The current work pursues posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) as a tool for criticizing models due to unaccounted for dimensions in data structures that follow conjunctive multidimensional models. These pursuits are couched in…

  17. Investigating Postgraduate College Admission Interviews: Generalizability Theory Reliability and Incremental Predictive Validity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Castillo, Irene Borges

    2007-01-01

    The use of face-to-face interviews is controversial for college admissions decisions in light of the lack of availability of validity and reliability evidence for most college admission processes. This study investigated reliability and incremental predictive validity of a face-to-face postgraduate college admission interview with a sample of…

  18. Prediction of HR/BP response to the spontaneous breathing trial by fluctuation dissipation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Man

    2014-03-01

    We applied the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem to predict how critically-ill patients respond to treatment, based on both heart rate data and blood pressure data collected by standard hospital monitoring devices. The non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem relates the response of a system to a perturbation to the fluctuations in the stationary state of the system. It is shown that the response of patients to a standard procedure performed on patients, the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT), can be predicted by the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation approach. We classify patients into different groups according to the patients' characteristics. For each patient group, we extend the fluctuation dissipation theorem to predict interactions between blood pressure and beat-to-beat dynamics of heart rate in response to a perturbation (SBT), We also extract the form of the perturbation function directly from the physiological data, which may help to reduce the prediction error. We note this method is not limited to the analysis of the heart rate dynamics, but also can be applied to analyze the response of other physiological signals to other clinical interventions.

  19. Analysis and prediction of particulate composite mechanical behavior using a nonlinear micromechanical theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Franklin C.

    1997-12-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a micromechanical model that would account for material nonlinearity due to matrix nonlinear behavior and inclusion debonding in polymeric particulate composites. An existing model was improved by using a new modulus prediction routine based on the work of Mori-Tanaka and Ju-Chen. This routine accounted for particle interaction and described more accurately the effects of a debonded inclusion on overall mechanical properties. Predictions for glass bead/high density polyethylene (HDPE) and glass bead/polyurethane (PU) composite behavior showed that debonded particles modeled as vacuoles gave better results than those modeled as voids. This model could predict mechanical behavior of highly loaded composites if a representative value for adhesion energy was available. The final micromechanical model improved the previous model by characterizing the matrix as a nonlinear elastic material. A critical analysis using data from glass bead/hydroxl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB) composites showed that debonding of largest to smallest particles throughout the monotonic strain history was a reasonable assumption. As well, particle interaction could be influenced by particle size and surface treatment. There were indications that particles did not fully debond. A sensitivity analyses revealed that overall behavior was controlled by particle-matrix adhesive characteristics. For glass bead/HTPB, glass bead/PU and glass bead/HDPE composites, the model was capable of predicting mechanical behavior as long as suitable adhesive characteristic values were available.

  20. Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glockner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-01-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are…

  1. Certainty, Determinism, and Predictability in Theories of Instructional Design: Lessons from Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.; And Others

    1997-01-01

    The strongly positivist beliefs on which traditional conceptions of instructional design (ID) are based derive from Aristotelian logic and oversimplify the world, reducing human learning and performance to a repertoire of manipulable behaviors. Reviews the cases against deterministic predictability and discusses hermeneutic, fuzzy logic, and chaos…

  2. Does exercise motivation predict engagement in objectively assessed bouts of moderate-intensity exercise? A self-determination theory perspective.

    PubMed

    Standage, Martyn; Sebire, Simon J; Loney, Tom

    2008-08-01

    This study examined the utility of motivation as advanced by self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) in predicting objectively assessed bouts of moderate intensity exercise behavior. Participants provided data pertaining to their exercise motivation. One week later, participants wore a combined accelerometer and heart rate monitor (Actiheart; Cambridge Neurotechnology Ltd) and 24-hr energy expenditure was estimated for 7 days. After controlling for gender and a combined marker of BMI and waist circumference, results showed autonomous motivation to positively predict moderate-intensity exercise bouts of >or=10 min, or=20 min, and an accumulation needed to meet public health recommendations for moderate intensity activity (i.e., ACSM/AHA guidelines). The present findings add bouts of objectively assessed exercise behavior to the growing body of literature that documents the adaptive consequences of engaging in exercise for autonomous reasons. Implications for practice and future work are discussed.

  3. Generalized multidimensional dynamic allocation method.

    PubMed

    Lebowitsch, Jonathan; Ge, Yan; Young, Benjamin; Hu, Feifang

    2012-12-10

    Dynamic allocation has received considerable attention since it was first proposed in the 1970s as an alternative means of allocating treatments in clinical trials which helps to secure the balance of prognostic factors across treatment groups. The purpose of this paper is to present a generalized multidimensional dynamic allocation method that simultaneously balances treatment assignments at three key levels: within the overall study, within each level of each prognostic factor, and within each stratum, that is, combination of levels of different factors Further it offers capabilities for unbalanced and adaptive designs for trials. The treatment balancing performance of the proposed method is investigated through simulations which compare multidimensional dynamic allocation with traditional stratified block randomization and the Pocock-Simon method. On the basis of these results, we conclude that this generalized multidimensional dynamic allocation method is an improvement over conventional dynamic allocation methods and is flexible enough to be applied for most trial settings including Phases I, II and III trials.

  4. Evaluating a theory of stress and adjustment when predicting long-term psychosocial outcome after brain injury.

    PubMed

    Rutterford, Neil A; Wood, Rodger L

    2006-05-01

    Kendall and Terry (1996) include many psychosocial predictors in their theoretical model that explains individual differences in psychosocial adjustment (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). The model depicts appraisal and coping variables as mediating relationships between situation factors, environmental and personal resources, and multidimensional outcome. The aim of this study was to explore these theoretical relationships at very late stages of recovery from traumatic brain injury. A total of 131 participants who were more than 10 years post-injury (mean = 15.31 years) completed several psychosocial measures relating to outcome dimensions comprising employment, community integration, life satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and emotion. There was no evidence that appraisal and coping variables mediated relationships between psychosocial and any of the outcome variables. However, when appraisal and coping variables were combined with psychosocial variables as direct predictors of outcome, every outcome except employment status was reliably predicted, accounting for between 31 and 46% of the variance. Personality significantly influenced all predicted outcomes. Self-efficacy contributed to the prediction of all outcomes except QoL. Data did not support for the theory of stress and adjustment as a framework for explaining the nature of predictive relationships between psychosocial variables and very long-term, multidimensional outcome after brain injury.

  5. Influence factors and prediction of stormwater runoff of urban green space in Tianjin, China: laboratory experiment and quantitative theory model.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xu; You, Xue-Yi; Ji, Min; Nima, Ciren

    2013-01-01

    The effects of limiting factors such as rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, grass type and vegetation coverage on the stormwater runoff of urban green space was investigated in Tianjin. The prediction equation of stormwater runoff was established by the quantitative theory with the lab experimental data of soil columns. It was validated by three field experiments and the relative errors between predicted and measured stormwater runoff are 1.41, 1.52 and 7.35%, respectively. The results implied that the prediction equation could be used to forecast the stormwater runoff of urban green space. The results of range and variance analysis indicated the sequence order of limiting factors is rainfall intensity > grass type > rainfall duration > vegetation coverage. The least runoff of green land in the present study is the combination of rainfall intensity 60.0 mm/h, duration 60.0 min, grass Festuca arundinacea and vegetation coverage 90.0%. When the intensity and duration of rainfall are 60.0 mm/h and 90.0 min, the predicted volumetric runoff coefficient is 0.23 with Festuca arundinacea of 90.0% vegetation coverage. The present approach indicated that green space is an effective method to reduce stormwater runoff and the conclusions are mainly applicable to Tianjin and the semi-arid areas with main summer precipitation and long-time interval rainfalls.

  6. Can Multiconfigurational Self-Consistent Field Theory and Density Functional Theory Correctly Predict the Ground State of Metal-Metal-Bonded Complexes?

    PubMed

    Carlson, Rebecca K; Odoh, Samuel O; Tereniak, Stephen J; Lu, Connie C; Gagliardi, Laura

    2015-09-01

    The electronic structure of a diiron (FeFe) complex with strong metal-metal interaction and those of analogous complexes (CoCo, CoMn, CoFe, and FeMn) with much weaker metal-metal bonding are investigated with wave function-based methods and density functional theory. The delocalization and bonding between the metal centers in the diiron complex is only fully captured after inclusion of the complete set of 3d and 4d orbitals in the active space, a situation best suited for restricted active space (RAS) approaches. Truncation of the included set of 4d orbitals results in inappropriate localization of some 3d orbitals, incorrect description of the ground spin state as well as wrong spin state energetics, as compared to experiment. Using density functional theory, some local functionals are able to predict the correct ground spin states, and describe the chemical bonding and structural properties of all the metal-metal complexes considered in this work. In contrast, the introduction of some exact exchange results in increased localization of 3d orbitals and wrong spin state energetics, a situation that is particularly troublesome for the diiron complex.

  7. Development of experiment and theory to detect and predict ligand phase separation on silver nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Farrell, Zachary; Merz, Steve; Seager, Jon; Dunn, Caroline; Egorov, Sergei; Green, David L

    2015-05-26

    MALDI mass-spectrometry measurements are combined with self-consistent mean-field (SCF) calculations to detect and predict ligand phase separation on Ag nanoparticles. The experimental and theoretical techniques complement each other by enabling quantification of the nearest-neighbor distribution of a ligand mixture in a monolayer shell. By tracking a characteristic metallic fragment family, analysis of a MALDI spectrum produces a frequency distribution corresponding to specific ligand patterning. Inherent to the SCF calculation is the enumeration of local interactions that dictate ligand assembly. Interweaving MALDI and SCF facilitates a comparison between the experimentally and theoretically derived frequency distributions as well as their deviation from a well-mixed state. Thus, we combine these techniques to detect and predict phase separation in monolayers that mix uniformly or experience varying degrees of de-mixing, including microphase separation and stripe formation. Definition of MALDI removed as this is a commonly recognized technique. PMID:25882701

  8. Geometrical theory to predict eccentric photorefraction intensity profiles in the human eye

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roorda, Austin; Campbell, Melanie C. W.; Bobier, W. R.

    1995-08-01

    In eccentric photorefraction, light returning from the retina of the eye is photographed by a camera focused on the eye's pupil. We use a geometrical model of eccentric photorefraction to generate intensity profiles across the pupil image. The intensity profiles for three different monochromatic aberration functions induced in a single eye are predicted and show good agreement with the measured eccentric photorefraction intensity profiles. A directional reflection from the retina is incorporated into the calculation. Intensity profiles for symmetric and asymmetric aberrations are generated and measured. The latter profile shows a dependency on the source position and the meridian. The magnitude of the effect of thresholding on measured pattern extents is predicted. Monochromatic aberrations in human eyes will cause deviations in the eccentric photorefraction measurements from traditional crescents caused by defocus and may cause misdiagnoses of ametropia or anisometropia. Our results suggest that measuring refraction along the vertical meridian is preferred for screening studies with the eccentric photorefractor.

  9. Parameter estimation and prediction for groundwater contamination based on measure theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mattis, S. A.; Butler, T. D.; Dawson, C. N.; Estep, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

    2015-09-01

    The problem of groundwater contamination in an aquifer is one with many uncertainties. Properly quantifying these uncertainties is essential in order to make reliable probabilistic-based predictions and decisions regarding remediation strategies. In this work, a measure-theoretic framework is employed to quantify uncertainties in a simplified groundwater contamination transport model. Given uncertain data from observation wells, the stochastic inverse problem is solved numerically to obtain a probability measure on the space of unknown model parameters characterizing groundwater flow and contaminant transport in an aquifer, as well as unknown model boundary or source terms such as the contaminant source release into the environment. This probability measure is used to make predictions of future contaminant concentrations and to analyze possible remediation techniques. The ability to identify regions of small but nonzero probability using this method is illustrated.

  10. Mechanical disassembly of single virus particles reveals kinetic intermediates predicted by theory.

    PubMed

    Castellanos, Milagros; Pérez, Rebeca; Carrillo, Pablo J P; de Pablo, Pedro J; Mateu, Mauricio G

    2012-06-01

    New experimental approaches are required to detect the elusive transient intermediates predicted by simulations of virus assembly or disassembly. Here, an atomic force microscope (AFM) was used to mechanically induce partial disassembly of single icosahedral T=1 capsids and virions of the minute virus of mice. The kinetic intermediates formed were imaged by AFM. The results revealed that induced disassembly of single minute-virus-of-mice particles is frequently initiated by loss of one of the 20 equivalent capsomers (trimers of capsid protein subunits) leading to a stable, nearly complete particle that does not readily lose further capsomers. With lower frequency, a fairly stable, three-fourths-complete capsid lacking one pentamer of capsomers and a free, stable pentamer were obtained. The intermediates most frequently identified (capsids missing one capsomer, capsids missing one pentamer of capsomers, and free pentamers of capsomers) had been predicted in theoretical studies of reversible capsid assembly based on thermodynamic-kinetic models, molecular dynamics, or oligomerization energies. We conclude that mechanical manipulation and imaging of simple virus particles by AFM can be used to experimentally identify kinetic intermediates predicted by simulations of assembly or disassembly.

  11. Research on allocation efficiency of the daisy chain allocation algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Jingping; Zhang, Weiguo

    2013-03-01

    With the improvement of the aircraft performance in reliability, maneuverability and survivability, the number of the control effectors increases a lot. How to distribute the three-axis moments into the control surfaces reasonably becomes an important problem. Daisy chain method is simple and easy to be carried out in the design of the allocation system. But it can not solve the allocation problem for entire attainable moment subset. For the lateral-directional allocation problem, the allocation efficiency of the daisy chain can be directly measured by the area of its subset of attainable moments. Because of the non-linear allocation characteristic, the subset of attainable moments of daisy-chain method is a complex non-convex polygon, and it is difficult to solve directly. By analyzing the two-dimensional allocation problems with a "micro-element" idea, a numerical calculation algorithm is proposed to compute the area of the non-convex polygon. In order to improve the allocation efficiency of the algorithm, a genetic algorithm with the allocation efficiency chosen as the fitness function is proposed to find the best pseudo-inverse matrix.

  12. Doping, adsorption, and polarity of atomic-layer materials: A predictive theory from systematic first-principles study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, Susumu; Fujimoto, Yoshitaka; Koretsune, Takashi

    2015-03-01

    Based on the extensive first-principles electronic-structure study of various doped hexagonal boron-nitride (h-BN) atomic layers as well as that of various doped graphene and carbon nanotubes, we propose a simple but predictive theory of polarity in doped atomic-layer materials. We first report the electronic structure of the pristine h-BN, h-BN layers with B and B3N vacancies which have been experimentally produced and observed frequently, and doped h-BN layers, and show that both p-type and n-type h-BN layers can be produced in a variety of ways. We next review the electronic structure of doped graphene and carbon nanotubes and the effect of the H adsorption which can even change the polarity of the system. Finally we propose a simple but predictive theory which is based on the number of valence electrons of each system, and can explain the polarities of all the h-BN, graphene, and nanotube-based systems studied so far. Supported by MEXT 25107005 and 25104711, JSPS 22740252 and 26390062, and MEST TIES project.

  13. A Comparison of Arrhenius and Macromolecular Rate Theory for Predicting Temperature Responses of Soil CO2 Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alster, C. J.; Koyama, A.; Johnson, N. G.; von Fischer, J.

    2015-12-01

    Soil microbes catalyze many key ecosystem functions, including soil respiration, and are thus important for understanding global carbon cycles and other biogeochemical cycles. One important component in predicting rates of respiration is determining how microbial communities respond to temperature. A range of models have been developed for determining temperature sensitivity of soil biological activities, most of which are based on the Arrhenius equation. This equation predicts an exponential increase in rate with temperature, despite field and laboratory results suggesting a temperature optimum below the denaturation point. Recently, Schipper et al. (2014) developed a novel theory, Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT), which explains this trend due to heat capacity (CP) changes associated with enzymes. We applied MMRT to respiration data collected using a reciprocal transplant design with soils from three different sites across the U.S. Great Plains to isolate the effects of microbial community type from edaphic factors. We found that MMRT provided a better fit to the data than Arrhenius in 8 out of the 9 soil x inocula combinations. Our analysis revealed that the microbial communities have distinct CP values largely independent of soil type. These results have significant implications for fundamental understanding of microbial enzyme dynamics in soils as well as for ecosystem and global carbon modeling.

  14. Predicting pediatricians' communication with parents about the human papillomavirus (hpv) vaccine: an application of the theory of reasoned action.

    PubMed

    Roberto, Anthony J; Krieger, Janice L; Katz, Mira L; Goei, Ryan; Jain, Parul

    2011-06-01

    This study examines the ability of the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to predict whether or not pediatricians encourage parents to get their adolescent daughters vaccinated against the human papillomavirus (HPV). Four-hundred and six pediatricians completed a mail survey measuring attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, intentions, and behavior. Results indicate that pediatricians have positive attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control toward encouraging parents to get their daughters vaccinated, that they intend to regularly encourage parents to get their daughters vaccinated against HPV in the next 30 days, and that they had regularly encouraged parents to get their daughters vaccinated against HPV in the past 30 days (behavior). Though the data were consistent with both the TRA and TPB models, results indicate that perceived behavioral control adds only slightly to the overall predictive power of the TRA, suggesting that attitudes and norms may be more important targets for interventions dealing with this topic and audience. No gender differences were observed for any of the individual variables or the overall fit of either model. These findings have important theoretical and practical implications for the development of health communication messages targeting health care providers in general, and for those designed to influence pediatricians' communication with parents regarding the HPV vaccine in particular.

  15. Arabidopsis CPR5 is a senescence-regulatory gene with pleiotropic functions as predicted by the evolutionary theory of senescence.

    PubMed

    Jing, Hai-Chun; Anderson, Lisa; Sturre, Marcel J G; Hille, Jacques; Dijkwel, Paul P

    2007-01-01

    Evolutionary theories of senescence predict that genes with pleiotropic functions are important for senescence regulation. In plants there is no direct molecular genetic test for the existence of such senescence-regulatory genes. Arabidopsis cpr5 mutants exhibit multiple phenotypes including hypersensitivity to various signalling molecules, constitutive expression of pathogen-related genes, abnormal trichome development, spontaneous lesion formation, and accelerated leaf senescence. These indicate that CPR5 is a beneficial gene which controls multiple facets of the Arabidopsis life cycle. Ectopic expression of CPR5 restored all the mutant phenotypes. However, in transgenic plants with increased CPR5 transcripts, accelerated leaf senescence was observed in detached leaves and at late development around 50 d after germination, as illustrated by the earlier onset of senescence-associated physiological and molecular markers. Thus, CPR5 has early-life beneficial effects by repressing cell death and insuring normal plant development, but late-life deleterious effects by promoting developmental senescence. As such, CPR5 appears to function as a typical senescence-regulatory gene as predicted by the evolutionary theories of senescence.

  16. An extension of the Theory of Planned Behavior to predict willingness to pay for the conservation of an urban park.

    PubMed

    López-Mosquera, Natalia; García, Teresa; Barrena, Ramo

    2014-03-15

    This paper relates the concept of moral obligation and the components of the Theory of Planned Behavior to determine their influence on the willingness to pay of visitors for park conservation. The sample consists of 190 visitors to an urban Spanish park. The mean willingness to pay estimated was 12.67€ per year. The results also indicated that moral norm was the major factor in predicting behavioral intention, followed by attitudes. The new relations established between the components of the Theory of Planned Behavior show that social norms significantly determine the attitudes, moral norms and perceived behavioral control of individuals. The proportion of explained variance shows that the inclusion of moral norms improves the explanatory power of the original model of the Theory of Planned Behavior (32-40%). Community-based social marketing and local campaigns are the main strategies that should be followed by land managers with the objective of promoting responsible, pro-environmental attitudes as well as a greater willingness to pay for this type of goods.

  17. Kinetic-theory predictions of clustering instabilities in granular flows: beyond the small-Knudsen-number regime

    SciTech Connect

    Mitrano, Peter P.; Zenk, John R.; Benyahia, Sofiane; Galvin, Janine E.; Dahl, Steven R.; Hrenya, Christine M.

    2013-12-04

    In this work we quantitatively assess, via instabilities, a Navier–Stokes-order (small- Knudsen-number) continuum model based on the kinetic theory analogy and applied to inelastic spheres in a homogeneous cooling system. Dissipative collisions are known to give rise to instabilities, namely velocity vortices and particle clusters, for sufficiently large domains. We compare predictions for the critical length scales required for particle clustering obtained from transient simulations using the continuum model with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The agreement between continuum simulations and MD simulations is excellent, particularly given the presence of well-developed velocity vortices at the onset of clustering. More specifically, spatial mapping of the local velocity-field Knudsen numbers (Knu) at the time of cluster detection reveals Knu » 1 due to the presence of large velocity gradients associated with vortices. Although kinetic-theory-based continuum models are based on a small- Kn (i.e. small-gradient) assumption, our findings suggest that, similar to molecular gases, Navier–Stokes-order (small-Kn) theories are surprisingly accurate outside their expected range of validity.

  18. Computational prediction of molecular hydration entropy with hybrid scaled particle theory and free-energy perturbation method.

    PubMed

    Choi, Hwanho; Kang, Hongsuk; Park, Hwangseo

    2015-10-13

    Despite the importance of the knowledge of molecular hydration entropy (ΔShyd) in chemical and biological processes, the exact calculation of ΔShyd is very difficult, because of the complexity in solute-water interactions. Although free-energy perturbation (FEP) methods have been employed quite widely in the literature, the poor convergent behavior of the van der Waals interaction term in the potential function limited the accuracy and robustness. In this study, we propose a new method for estimating ΔShyd by means of combining the FEP approach and the scaled particle theory (or information theory) to separately calculate the electrostatic solute-water interaction term (ΔSelec) and the hydrophobic contribution approximated by the cavity formation entropy (ΔScav), respectively. Decomposition of ΔShyd into ΔScav and ΔSelec terms is found to be very effective with a substantial accuracy enhancement in ΔShyd estimation, when compared to the conventional full FEP calculations. ΔScav appears to dominate over ΔSelec in magnitude, even in the case of polar solutes, implying that the major contribution to the entropic cost for hydration comes from the formation of a solvent-excluded volume. Our hybrid scaled particle theory and FEP method is thus found to enhance the accuracy of ΔShyd prediction by effectively complementing the conventional full FEP method.

  19. An extension of the Theory of Planned Behavior to predict willingness to pay for the conservation of an urban park.

    PubMed

    López-Mosquera, Natalia; García, Teresa; Barrena, Ramo

    2014-03-15

    This paper relates the concept of moral obligation and the components of the Theory of Planned Behavior to determine their influence on the willingness to pay of visitors for park conservation. The sample consists of 190 visitors to an urban Spanish park. The mean willingness to pay estimated was 12.67€ per year. The results also indicated that moral norm was the major factor in predicting behavioral intention, followed by attitudes. The new relations established between the components of the Theory of Planned Behavior show that social norms significantly determine the attitudes, moral norms and perceived behavioral control of individuals. The proportion of explained variance shows that the inclusion of moral norms improves the explanatory power of the original model of the Theory of Planned Behavior (32-40%). Community-based social marketing and local campaigns are the main strategies that should be followed by land managers with the objective of promoting responsible, pro-environmental attitudes as well as a greater willingness to pay for this type of goods. PMID:24525079

  20. Can policy analysis theories predict and inform policy change? Reflections on the battle for legal abortion in Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Surjadjaja, Claudia; Mayhew, Susannah H

    2011-09-01

    The relevance and importance of research for understanding policy processes and influencing policies has been much debated, but studies on the effectiveness of policy theories for predicting and informing opportunities for policy change (i.e. prospective policy analysis) are rare. The case study presented in this paper is drawn from a policy analysis of a contemporary process of policy debate on legalization of abortion in Indonesia, which was in flux at the time of the research and provided a unique opportunity for prospective analysis. Applying a combination of policy analysis theories, this case study provides an analysis of processes, power and relationships between actors involved in the amendment of the Health Law in Indonesia. It uses a series of practical stakeholder mapping tools to identify power relations between key actors and what strategic approaches should be employed to manage these to enhance the possibility of policy change. The findings show how the moves to legalize abortion have been supported or constrained according to the balance of political and religious powers operating in a macro-political context defined increasingly by a polarized Islamic-authoritarian-Western-liberal agenda. The issue of reproductive health constituted a battlefield where these two ideologies met and the debate on the current health law amendment became a contest, which still continues, for the larger future of Indonesia. The findings confirm the utility of policy analysis theories and stakeholder mapping tools for predicting the likelihood of policy change and informing the strategic approaches for achieving such change. They also highlight opportunities and dilemmas in prospective policy analysis and raise questions about whether research on policy processes and actors can or should be used to inform, or even influence, policies in 'real-time'. PMID:21183461