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Sample records for allocation theory predicts

  1. Sex allocation theory reveals a hidden cost of neonicotinoid exposure in a parasitoid wasp.

    PubMed

    Whitehorn, Penelope R; Cook, Nicola; Blackburn, Charlotte V; Gill, Sophie M; Green, Jade; Shuker, David M

    2015-05-22

    Sex allocation theory has proved to be one the most successful theories in evolutionary ecology. However, its role in more applied aspects of ecology has been limited. Here we show how sex allocation theory helps uncover an otherwise hidden cost of neonicotinoid exposure in the parasitoid wasp Nasonia vitripennis. Female N. vitripennis allocate the sex of their offspring in line with Local Mate Competition (LMC) theory. Neonicotinoids are an economically important class of insecticides, but their deployment remains controversial, with evidence linking them to the decline of beneficial species. We demonstrate for the first time to our knowledge, that neonicotinoids disrupt the crucial reproductive behaviour of facultative sex allocation at sub-lethal, field-relevant doses in N. vitripennis. The quantitative predictions we can make from LMC theory show that females exposed to neonicotinoids are less able to allocate sex optimally and that this failure imposes a significant fitness cost. Our work highlights that understanding the ecological consequences of neonicotinoid deployment requires not just measures of mortality or even fecundity reduction among non-target species, but also measures that capture broader fitness costs, in this case offspring sex allocation. Our work also highlights new avenues for exploring how females obtain information when allocating sex under LMC.

  2. Experimental tests of sex allocation theory with two species of simultaneously hermaphroditic acorn barnacles.

    PubMed

    Hoch, Jeffrey Matthew; Levinton, Jeffrey S

    2012-05-01

    Sex allocation theory for simultaneous hermaphrodites predicts increases in relative allocation to male-specific function as competition for fertilizations increases. Theoretical models developed specifically for competing acorn barnacles predict that the proportional allocation to male function increases toward an asymptote of 50% as the number of competitors for fertilizations increases. Experimental manipulations were used to investigate how mate competition affected both relative and absolute allocation to the sex functions for two species of acorn barnacle: Semibalanus balanoides and Balanus glandula. The ratio of male to female allocation did not increase with the number of competitors for either species. However, both species showed increased allocation to male function (estimated as total mass of sex-specific tissues) with increased crowding. Allocation to female function seemed to be limited by other factors and did not vary with mating group size as predicted. Allocation to male and female function were both positively related to body size, but a trade-off between male and female function, a key assumption of prior models, was not observed.

  3. Dynamic computing resource allocation in online flood monitoring and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, S.; Podhoranyi, M.; Vavrik, R.; Portero, A.

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents tools and methodologies for dynamic allocation of high performance computing resources during operation of the Floreon+ online flood monitoring and prediction system. The resource allocation is done throughout the execution of supported simulations to meet the required service quality levels for system operation. It also ensures flexible reactions to changing weather and flood situations, as it is not economically feasible to operate online flood monitoring systems in the full performance mode during non-flood seasons. Different service quality levels are therefore described for different flooding scenarios, and the runtime manager controls them by allocating only minimal resources currently expected to meet the deadlines. Finally, an experiment covering all presented aspects of computing resource allocation in rainfall-runoff and Monte Carlo uncertainty simulation is performed for the area of the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic.

  4. Predictions from String Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuflik, Eric

    String theory is the leading candidate for an underlying theory of nature, as it provides a framework through which to address critical questions left unanswered by the Standard Model and Supersymmetry. A number of predictions of string constructions can be empirically tested at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and dark matter experiments. In this work I aim to make generic predictions of string theory, while combining bottom-up approaches to fill in the gaps in our understanding of string theory to make predictions for current and upcoming experiments. First I study moduli masses and claim that moduli dominated the energy density of the universe prior to big bang nucleosynthesis. We argue that in any string theory with stabilized moduli there will be at least one modulus field whose mass is of order the gravitino mass. Cosmology then generically requires the gravitino mass to be greater than 30 TeV and the early cosmological history of the Universe be non-thermal. We are then led to believe that the best-motivated channel for early LHC discovery is gluino pair-production events decaying into a high multiplicity of third generation quarks. We analyze signals and background at the LHC for 7 TeV center of mass energy for 1 fb -1 integrated luminosity, suggesting a reach for gluinos for masses about 650 GeV. Second, I seek to construct a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) within different branches of string theory. One promising GUT, developed outside of string theory, is Flipped-SU(5), which I show has serious phenomenological difficulties. I demonstrate both that Flipped-SU(5) requires an R-symmetry to solve the mu-problem, and that no R-symmetries exist in F-theory. Thus Flipped-SU(5) cannot serve as a GUT within F-theory. Similarly, I seek to construct a GUT within M-theory. My study is based upon the discrete symmetry proposed by Witten that forbids the mu-term and solves the doublet-triplet splitting problem, but does not address how the symmetry might be broken. I find

  5. Predictive Game Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolpert, David H.

    2005-01-01

    Probability theory governs the outcome of a game; there is a distribution over mixed strat.'s, not a single "equilibrium". To predict a single mixed strategy must use our loss function (external to the game's players. Provides a quantification of any strategy's rationality. Prove rationality falls as cost of computation rises (for players who have not previously interacted). All extends to games with varying numbers of players.

  6. Plant reproductive allocation predicts herbivore dynamics across spatial and temporal scales.

    PubMed

    Miller, Tom E X; Tyre, Andrew J; Louda, Svata M

    2006-11-01

    Life-history theory suggests that iteroparous plants should be flexible in their allocation of resources toward growth and reproduction. Such plasticity could have consequences for herbivores that prefer or specialize on vegetative versus reproductive structures. To test this prediction, we studied the response of the cactus bug (Narnia pallidicornis) to meristem allocation by tree cholla cactus (Opuntia imbricata). We evaluated the explanatory power of demographic models that incorporated variation in cactus relative reproductive effort (RRE; the proportion of meristems allocated toward reproduction). Field data provided strong support for a single model that defined herbivore fecundity as a time-varying, increasing function of host RRE. High-RRE plants were predicted to support larger insect populations, and this effect was strongest late in the season. Independent field data provided strong support for these qualitative predictions and suggested that plant allocation effects extend across temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, late-season insect abundance was positively associated with interannual changes in cactus RRE over 3 years. Spatial variation in insect abundance was correlated with variation in RRE among five cactus populations across New Mexico. We conclude that plant allocation can be a critical component of resource quality for insect herbivores and, thus, an important mechanism underlying variation in herbivore abundance across time and space.

  7. Carbon allocation in ectomycorrhizal plants at limited optimal N supply: an attempt aat unraveling conflicting theories.

    PubMed

    Corrêa, Ana; Hampp, Rüdiger; Magel, Elisabeth; Martins-Loução, Maria-Amélia

    2011-01-01

    With regard to mycorrhiza, conflicting theories try to explain how the balance between fungal demand for carbohydrates and the plant’s needs for nutrients varies, resulting in conflicting predictions. In order to evaluate current concepts, we investigated some metabolic parameters, which are indicative for plant carbon allocation in response to mycorrhization at limited and optimal N supply. Pinus pinaster seedlings were inoculated with living or dead (control) cultures of Pisolithus tinctorius, supplied with ammonium at 4 (limiting) or 7% d−1 (non-limiting) N relative addition rate (RARN), and followed development for 29 days. Mycorrhizal colonization of roots was quantified by the determination of ergosterol. A series of enzymes (sucrose and trehalose metabolism, anaplerosis) and metabolites (soluble carbohydrate, including trehalose; fructose 2,6 bisphosphate, free amino acids) relevant in the C/N exchange between symbionts, and in the carbon allocation and sink strength within the plant were assayed for 2-day-intervals for up to 14 days, and at 5-day-intervals for the rest of the experiment. The first 10 days reflected the establishment of mycorrhizal interaction, and the carbon allocation to the root was higher in M plants independent of N supply. Following this period, carbon allocation became N-related, higher at low, and lower at high N supply. The belowground C investment of M plants was dependent on N availability, but not on N gain. Finally, increased belowground C allocation was accompanied by a shift from plant to fungal metabolism.

  8. Useful theories make predictions.

    PubMed

    Howes, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Stephen and Van Orden (this issue) propose that there is a complex system approach to cognitive science, and collectively the authors of the papers presented in this issue believe that this approach provides the means to drive a revolution in the science of the mind. Unfortunately, however illuminating, this explanation is absent and hyperbole is all too extensive. In contrast, I argue (1) that dynamic systems theory is not new to cognitive science and does not provide a basis for a revolution, (2) it is not necessary to reject cognitive science in order to explain the constraints imposed by the body and the environment, (3) it is not necessary, as Silberstein and Chemero (this issue) appear to do, to reject cognitive science in order to explain consciousness, and (4) our understanding of pragmatics is not advanced by Gibbs and Van Orden's (this issue) "self-organized criticality".? Any debate about the future of cognitive science could usefully focus on predictive adequacy. Unfortunately, this is not the approach taken by the authors of this issue.

  9. How do people learn to allocate resources? Comparing two learning theories.

    PubMed

    Rieskamp, Jörg; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Laine, Tei

    2003-11-01

    How do people learn to allocate resources? To answer this question, 2 major learning models are compared, each incorporating different learning principles. One is a global search model, which assumes that allocations are made probabilistically on the basis of expectations formed through the entire history of past decisions. The 2nd is a local adaptation model, which assumes that allocations are made by comparing the present decision with the most successful decision up to that point, ignoring all other past decisions. In 2 studies, participants repeatedly allocated a capital resource to 3 financial assets. Substantial learning effects occurred, although the optimal allocation was often not found. From the calibrated models of Study 1, a priori predictions were derived and tested in Study 2. This generalization test shows that the local adaptation model provides a better account of learning in resource allocations than the global search model.

  10. Best linear unbiased prediction and optimum allocation of test resources in maize breeding with doubled haploids.

    PubMed

    Mi, Xuefei; Wegenast, Thilo; Utz, H Friedrich; Dhillon, Baldev S; Melchinger, Albrecht E

    2011-06-01

    With best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP), information from genetically related candidates is combined to obtain more precise estimates of genotypic values of test candidates and thereby increase progress from selection. We developed and applied theory and Monte Carlo simulations implementing BLUP in 2 two-stage maize breeding schemes and various selection strategies. Our objectives were to (1) derive analytical solutions of the mixed model equations under two breeding schemes, (2) determine the optimum allocation of test resources with BLUP under different assumptions regarding the variance component ratios for grain yield in maize, (3) compare the progress from selection using BLUP and conventional phenotypic selection based on mean performance solely of the candidates, and (4) analyze the potential of BLUP for further improving the progress from selection. The breeding schemes involved selection for testcross performance either of DH lines at both stages (DHTC) or of S(1) families at the first stage and DH lines at the second stage (S(1)TC-DHTC). Our analytical solutions allowed much faster calculations of the optimum allocations and superseded matrix inversions to solve the mixed model equations. Compared to conventional phenotypic selection, the progress from selection was slightly higher with BLUP for both optimization criteria, namely the selection gain and the probability to select the best genotypes. The optimum allocation of test resources in S(1)TC-DHTC involved ≥ 10 test locations at both stages, a low number of crosses (≤ 6) each with 100-300 S(1) families at the first stage, and 500-1,000 DH lines at the second stage. In breeding scheme DHTC, the optimum number of test candidates at the first stage was 5-10 times larger, whereas the number of test locations at the first stage and the number of test candidates at the second stage were strongly reduced compared to S(1)TC-DHTC.

  11. Allocation of control rights and cooperation efficiency in public-private partnerships: theory and evidence from the Chinese pharmaceutical industry.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhe; Jia, Ming; Wan, Difang

    2009-06-01

    This article uses incomplete contract theory to study the allocation of control rights in public-private partnerships (PPPs) between pharmaceutical enterprises and nonprofit organizations; it also investigates how this allocation influences cooperation efficiency. We first develop a mathematic model for the allocation of control rights and its influence on cooperation efficiency, and then derive some basic hypotheses from the model. The results of an empirical test show that the allocation of control rights influences how enterprises invest in PPPs. A proper allocation provides incentives for firms to make fewer self-interested and more public-interested investments. Such an allocation also improves the cooperation efficiency of PPPs.

  12. Is quantum theory predictably complete?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kupczynski, M.

    2009-07-01

    Quantum theory (QT) provides statistical predictions for various physical phenomena. To verify these predictions a considerable amount of data has been accumulated in the 'measurements' performed on the ensembles of identically prepared physical systems or in the repeated 'measurements' on some trapped 'individual physical systems'. The outcomes of these measurements are, in general, some numerical time series registered by some macroscopic instruments. The various empirical probability distributions extracted from these time series were shown to be consistent with the probabilistic predictions of QT. More than 70 years ago the claim was made that QT provided the most complete description of 'individual' physical systems and outcomes of the measurements performed on 'individual' physical systems were obtained in an intrinsically random way. Spin polarization correlation experiments (SPCEs), performed to test the validity of Bell inequalities, clearly demonstrated the existence of strong long-range correlations and confirmed that the beams hitting far away detectors somehow preserve the memory of their common source which would be destroyed if the individual counts of far away detectors were purely random. Since the probabilities describe the random experiments and are not the attributes of the 'individual' physical systems, the claim that QT provides a complete description of 'individual' physical systems seems not only unjustified but also misleading and counter productive. In this paper, we point out that we even do not know whether QT is predictably complete because it has not been tested carefully enough. Namely, it was not proven that the time series of existing experimental data did not contain some stochastic fine structures that could have been averaged out by describing them in terms of the empirical probability distributions. In this paper, we advocate various statistical tests that could be used to search for such fine structures in the data and to

  13. A Resource-Allocation Theory of Classroom Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonald, Frederick J.

    A fresh approach to classroom management, which responds both to the present body of knowledge in this area and extends to beginning teachers a practical, flexible, and simple method of maintaining classroom control, is presented. Shortcomings of previous management theories (in particular, the Direct Instruction Model) are discussed, and the need…

  14. Sexual systems and dwarf males in barnacles: integrating life history and sex allocation theories.

    PubMed

    Yamaguchi, Sachi; Yusa, Yoichi; Sawada, Kota; Takahashi, Satoshi

    2013-03-07

    Barnacles, which are sedentary marine crustaceans, have diverse sexual systems that include simultaneous hermaphroditism, androdioecy (coexistence of hermaphrodites and males) and dioecy (females and males). In dioecious and androdioecious species, the males are very small and are thus called dwarf males. These sexual systems are defined by two factors: sex allocation of non-dwarf individuals and the presence or absence of dwarf males. We constructed an ESS model treating sex allocation and life history simultaneously to explain sexual systems in barnacles. We analyzed the evolutionarily stable size-dependent resource allocation strategy to male reproductive function, female reproductive function and growth in non-dwarf barnacles, and the ESS proportion of dwarf males, under conditions of varying mortality and food availability. Sex allocation in non-dwarf individuals (hermaphrodites or females) is affected by mate availability and the proportion of dwarf males. When hermaphrodites appear, all hermaphrodites become protandric simultaneous hermaphrodites. Furthermore, high mortality and poor resource availability favor dwarf males because of their early maturation and weakened sperm competition. In conclusion, we showed that combining sex allocation and life history theories is a useful way to understand various sexual systems in barnacles and perhaps in other organisms as well.

  15. Link prediction in complex networks based on an information allocation index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pei, Panpan; Liu, Bo; Jiao, Licheng

    2017-03-01

    An important issue in link prediction of complex networks is to make full use of different kinds of available information simultaneously. To tackle this issue, recently, an information-theoretic model has been proposed and a novel Neighbor Set Information Index (NSI) has been designed. Motivated by this work, we proposed a more general information-theoretic model by further distinguishing the contributions from different variables of the available features. Then, by introducing the resource allocation process into the model, we designed a new index based on neighbor sets with a virtual information allocation process: Neighbor Set Information Allocation Index(NSIA). Experimental studies on real world networks from disparate fields indicate that NSIA performs well compared with NSI as well as other typical proximity indices.

  16. Differential allocation of constitutive and induced chemical defenses in pine tree juveniles: a test of the optimal defense theory.

    PubMed

    Moreira, Xoaquín; Zas, Rafael; Sampedro, Luis

    2012-01-01

    Optimal defense theory (ODT) predicts that the within-plant quantitative allocation of defenses is not random, but driven by the potential relative contribution of particular plant tissues to overall fitness. These predictions have been poorly tested on long-lived woody plants. We explored the allocation of constitutive and methyl-jasmonate (MJ) inducible chemical defenses in six half-sib families of Pinus radiata juveniles. Specifically, we studied the quantitative allocation of resin and polyphenolics (the two major secondary chemicals in pine trees) to tissues with contrasting fitness value (stem phloem, stem xylem and needles) across three parts of the plants (basal, middle and apical upper part), using nitrogen concentration as a proxy of tissue value. Concentration of nitrogen in the phloem, xylem and needles was found to be greater higher up the plant. As predicted by the ODT, the same pattern was found for the concentration of non-volatile resin in the stem. However, in leaf tissues the concentrations of both resin and total phenolics were greater towards the base of the plant. Two weeks after MJ application, the concentrations of nitrogen in the phloem, resin in the stem and total phenolics in the needles increased by roughly 25% compared with the control plants, inducibility was similar across all plant parts, and families differed in the inducibility of resin compounds in the stem. In contrast, no significant changes were observed either for phenolics in the stems, or for resin in the needles after MJ application. Concentration of resin in the phloem was double that in the xylem and MJ-inducible, with inducibility being greater towards the base of the stem. In contrast, resin in the xylem was not MJ-inducible and increased in concentration higher up the plant. The pattern of inducibility by MJ-signaling in juvenile P. radiata is tissue, chemical-defense and plant-part specific, and is genetically variable.

  17. Differential Allocation of Constitutive and Induced Chemical Defenses in Pine Tree Juveniles: A Test of the Optimal Defense Theory

    PubMed Central

    Zas, Rafael

    2012-01-01

    Optimal defense theory (ODT) predicts that the within-plant quantitative allocation of defenses is not random, but driven by the potential relative contribution of particular plant tissues to overall fitness. These predictions have been poorly tested on long-lived woody plants. We explored the allocation of constitutive and methyl-jasmonate (MJ) inducible chemical defenses in six half-sib families of Pinus radiata juveniles. Specifically, we studied the quantitative allocation of resin and polyphenolics (the two major secondary chemicals in pine trees) to tissues with contrasting fitness value (stem phloem, stem xylem and needles) across three parts of the plants (basal, middle and apical upper part), using nitrogen concentration as a proxy of tissue value. Concentration of nitrogen in the phloem, xylem and needles was found to be greater higher up the plant. As predicted by the ODT, the same pattern was found for the concentration of non-volatile resin in the stem. However, in leaf tissues the concentrations of both resin and total phenolics were greater towards the base of the plant. Two weeks after MJ application, the concentrations of nitrogen in the phloem, resin in the stem and total phenolics in the needles increased by roughly 25% compared with the control plants, inducibility was similar across all plant parts, and families differed in the inducibility of resin compounds in the stem. In contrast, no significant changes were observed either for phenolics in the stems, or for resin in the needles after MJ application. Concentration of resin in the phloem was double that in the xylem and MJ-inducible, with inducibility being greater towards the base of the stem. In contrast, resin in the xylem was not MJ-inducible and increased in concentration higher up the plant. The pattern of inducibility by MJ-signaling in juvenile P. radiata is tissue, chemical-defense and plant-part specific, and is genetically variable. PMID:22470508

  18. Theory of Mind: A Neural Prediction Problem

    PubMed Central

    Koster-Hale, Jorie; Saxe, Rebecca

    2014-01-01

    Predictive coding posits that neural systems make forward-looking predictions about incoming information. Neural signals contain information not about the currently perceived stimulus, but about the difference between the observed and the predicted stimulus. We propose to extend the predictive coding framework from high-level sensory processing to the more abstract domain of theory of mind; that is, to inferences about others’ goals, thoughts, and personalities. We review evidence that, across brain regions, neural responses to depictions of human behavior, from biological motion to trait descriptions, exhibit a key signature of predictive coding: reduced activity to predictable stimuli. We discuss how future experiments could distinguish predictive coding from alternative explanations of this response profile. This framework may provide an important new window on the neural computations underlying theory of mind. PMID:24012000

  19. Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1988-01-01

    The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

  20. Prediction Theory of Periodically Correlated Stochastic Processes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-05-12

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research dealt with the prediction problem for periodically correlated sequences, that is the stochastic sequences...was to develop an alternative technique for analysis such sequences . In the first published paper we 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...Aug-2014 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Final Report: Prediction Theory of Periodically Correlated Stochastic Processes. The

  1. Understanding Hypotheses, Predictions, Laws, and Theories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eastwell, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This paper discusses the relationships between the terms "hypothesis," "prediction," "theory," and "law." In so doing, it addresses some misconceptions found in the literature and suggests that the only interpretation of the term "hypothesis" needed is that of a causal hypothesis. A more valid…

  2. Metabolic theory predicts whole-ecosystem properties.

    PubMed

    Schramski, John R; Dell, Anthony I; Grady, John M; Sibly, Richard M; Brown, James H

    2015-02-24

    Understanding the effects of individual organisms on material cycles and energy fluxes within ecosystems is central to predicting the impacts of human-caused changes on climate, land use, and biodiversity. Here we present a theory that integrates metabolic (organism-based bottom-up) and systems (ecosystem-based top-down) approaches to characterize how the metabolism of individuals affects the flows and stores of materials and energy in ecosystems. The theory predicts how the average residence time of carbon molecules, total system throughflow (TST), and amount of recycling vary with the body size and temperature of the organisms and with trophic organization. We evaluate the theory by comparing theoretical predictions with outputs of numerical models designed to simulate diverse ecosystem types and with empirical data for real ecosystems. Although residence times within different ecosystems vary by orders of magnitude-from weeks in warm pelagic oceans with minute phytoplankton producers to centuries in cold forests with large tree producers-as predicted, all ecosystems fall along a single line: residence time increases linearly with slope = 1.0 with the ratio of whole-ecosystem biomass to primary productivity (B/P). TST was affected predominantly by primary productivity and recycling by the transfer of energy from microbial decomposers to animal consumers. The theory provides a robust basis for estimating the flux and storage of energy, carbon, and other materials in terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems and for quantifying the roles of different kinds of organisms and environments at scales from local ecosystems to the biosphere.

  3. Ko Displacement Theory for Structural Shape Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.

    2010-01-01

    The development of the Ko displacement theory for predictions of structure deformed shapes was motivated in 2003 by the Helios flying wing, which had a 247-ft (75-m) wing span with wingtip deflections reaching 40 ft (12 m). The Helios flying wing failed in midair in June 2003, creating the need to develop new technology to predict in-flight deformed shapes of unmanned aircraft wings for visual display before the ground-based pilots. Any types of strain sensors installed on a structure can only sense the surface strains, but are incapable to sense the overall deformed shapes of structures. After the invention of the Ko displacement theory, predictions of structure deformed shapes could be achieved by feeding the measured surface strains into the Ko displacement transfer functions for the calculations of out-of-plane deflections and cross sectional rotations at multiple locations for mapping out overall deformed shapes of the structures. The new Ko displacement theory combined with a strain-sensing system thus created a revolutionary new structure- shape-sensing technology.

  4. 'A Theory of the Allocation of Time' Turns Fifty: Its Impact on the Field of Health Economics.

    PubMed

    Grossman, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The year 2015 is the 50th anniversary of the publication of 'A Theory of the Allocation of Time,' by Gary S. Becker in the 1965 volume of The Economic Journal. To mark that occasion, this editorial focuses on the importance of that paper in the history and evolution of the field of health economics.

  5. Finite and Gauge-Yukawa unified theories: Theory and predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Kobayashi, T.; Kubo, J.; Mondragon, M.; Zoupanos, G.

    1999-10-25

    All-loop Finite Unified Theories (FUTs) are very interesting N=1 GUTs in which a complete reduction of couplings has been achieved. FUTs realize an old field theoretical dream and have remarkable predictive power. Reduction of dimensionless couplings in N=1 GUTs is achieved by searching for renormalization group invariant (RGI) relations among them holding beyond the unification scale. Finiteness results from the fact that there exists RGI relations among dimensionless couplings that guarantee the vanishing of the {beta}- functions in certain N=1 supersymmetric GUTS even to all orders. Recent developments in the soft supersymmetry breaking (SSB) sector of N=1 GUTs and FUTs lead to exact RGI relations also in this sector of the theories. Of particular interest is a RGI sum rule for the soft scalar masses holding to all orders. The characteristic features of SU(5) models that have been constructed based on the above tools are: a) the old agreement of the top quark prediction with the measured value remains unchanged, b) the lightest Higgs boson is predicted to be around 120 GeV, c) the s-spectrum starts above several hundreds of GeV.

  6. Asymptotic theory of time-varying social networks with heterogeneous activity and tie allocation.

    PubMed

    Ubaldi, Enrico; Perra, Nicola; Karsai, Márton; Vezzani, Alessandro; Burioni, Raffaella; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2016-10-24

    The dynamic of social networks is driven by the interplay between diverse mechanisms that still challenge our theoretical and modelling efforts. Amongst them, two are known to play a central role in shaping the networks evolution, namely the heterogeneous propensity of individuals to i) be socially active and ii) establish a new social relationships with their alters. Here, we empirically characterise these two mechanisms in seven real networks describing temporal human interactions in three different settings: scientific collaborations, Twitter mentions, and mobile phone calls. We find that the individuals' social activity and their strategy in choosing ties where to allocate their social interactions can be quantitatively described and encoded in a simple stochastic network modelling framework. The Master Equation of the model can be solved in the asymptotic limit. The analytical solutions provide an explicit description of both the system dynamic and the dynamical scaling laws characterising crucial aspects about the evolution of the networks. The analytical predictions match with accuracy the empirical observations, thus validating the theoretical approach. Our results provide a rigorous dynamical system framework that can be extended to include other processes shaping social dynamics and to generate data driven predictions for the asymptotic behaviour of social networks.

  7. Asymptotic theory of time-varying social networks with heterogeneous activity and tie allocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ubaldi, Enrico; Perra, Nicola; Karsai, Márton; Vezzani, Alessandro; Burioni, Raffaella; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The dynamic of social networks is driven by the interplay between diverse mechanisms that still challenge our theoretical and modelling efforts. Amongst them, two are known to play a central role in shaping the networks evolution, namely the heterogeneous propensity of individuals to i) be socially active and ii) establish a new social relationships with their alters. Here, we empirically characterise these two mechanisms in seven real networks describing temporal human interactions in three different settings: scientific collaborations, Twitter mentions, and mobile phone calls. We find that the individuals’ social activity and their strategy in choosing ties where to allocate their social interactions can be quantitatively described and encoded in a simple stochastic network modelling framework. The Master Equation of the model can be solved in the asymptotic limit. The analytical solutions provide an explicit description of both the system dynamic and the dynamical scaling laws characterising crucial aspects about the evolution of the networks. The analytical predictions match with accuracy the empirical observations, thus validating the theoretical approach. Our results provide a rigorous dynamical system framework that can be extended to include other processes shaping social dynamics and to generate data driven predictions for the asymptotic behaviour of social networks.

  8. Asymptotic theory of time-varying social networks with heterogeneous activity and tie allocation

    PubMed Central

    Ubaldi, Enrico; Perra, Nicola; Karsai, Márton; Vezzani, Alessandro; Burioni, Raffaella; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    The dynamic of social networks is driven by the interplay between diverse mechanisms that still challenge our theoretical and modelling efforts. Amongst them, two are known to play a central role in shaping the networks evolution, namely the heterogeneous propensity of individuals to i) be socially active and ii) establish a new social relationships with their alters. Here, we empirically characterise these two mechanisms in seven real networks describing temporal human interactions in three different settings: scientific collaborations, Twitter mentions, and mobile phone calls. We find that the individuals’ social activity and their strategy in choosing ties where to allocate their social interactions can be quantitatively described and encoded in a simple stochastic network modelling framework. The Master Equation of the model can be solved in the asymptotic limit. The analytical solutions provide an explicit description of both the system dynamic and the dynamical scaling laws characterising crucial aspects about the evolution of the networks. The analytical predictions match with accuracy the empirical observations, thus validating the theoretical approach. Our results provide a rigorous dynamical system framework that can be extended to include other processes shaping social dynamics and to generate data driven predictions for the asymptotic behaviour of social networks. PMID:27774998

  9. An integrative case study approach between game theory and Pareto frontier concepts for the transboundary water resources allocations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kucukmehmetoglu, Mehmet

    2012-07-01

    SummaryIn the context of transboundary issues, this paper introduces a composite water resources allocation approach that integrates both game theory and Pareto frontier concepts over the case of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. The proposed approach searches for an acceptable and viable solution set over the Pareto Frontier Surface via game theory based rationality constraints. For this purpose, the used base model is the Euphrates and Tigris River Basin Model, which is a linear programming model maximizing net economic benefits while optimally allocating scarce water resources in the basin. Results indicate that game theory based strategies and associated constraints provide a determinative backbone for an efficient and effective use of generated Pareto Frontier Surfaces. Additionally, estimated marginal values imply that the upstream countries have upper hand positions regarding their geographic and climatic contexts. After all the generation schemes, it appears that Turkey is the critical partner for inclusion into any form of coalition in the Euphrates and Tigris River Basin.

  10. Application of portfolio theory to risk-based allocation of surveillance resources in animal populations.

    PubMed

    Prattley, D J; Morris, R S; Stevenson, M A; Thornton, R

    2007-09-14

    Distribution of finite levels of resources between multiple competing tasks can be a challenging problem. Resources need to be distributed across time periods and geographic locations to increase the probability of detection of a disease incursion or significant change in disease pattern. Efforts should focus primarily on areas and populations where risk factors for a given disease reach relatively high levels. In order to target resources into these areas, the overall risk level can be evaluated periodically across locations to create a dynamic national risk landscape. Methods are described to integrate the levels of various risk factors into an overall risk score for each area, to account for the certainty or variability around those measures and then to allocate surveillance resources across this risk landscape. In addition to targeting resources into high risk areas, surveillance continues in lower risk areas where there is a small yet positive chance of disease occurrence. In this paper we describe the application of portfolio theory concepts, routinely used in finance, to design surveillance portfolios for a series of examples. The appropriate level of resource investment is chosen for each disease or geographical area and time period given the degree of disease risk and uncertainty present.

  11. Implicit theories about willpower predict self-regulation and grades in everyday life.

    PubMed

    Job, Veronika; Walton, Gregory M; Bernecker, Katharina; Dweck, Carol S

    2015-04-01

    Laboratory research shows that when people believe that willpower is an abundant (rather than highly limited) resource they exhibit better self-control after demanding tasks. However, some have questioned whether this "nonlimited" theory leads to squandering of resources and worse outcomes in everyday life when demands on self-regulation are high. To examine this, we conducted a longitudinal study, assessing students' theories about willpower and tracking their self-regulation and academic performance. As hypothesized, a nonlimited theory predicted better self-regulation (better time management and less procrastination, unhealthy eating, and impulsive spending) for students who faced high self-regulatory demands. Moreover, among students taking a heavy course load, those with a nonlimited theory earned higher grades, which was mediated by less procrastination. These findings contradict the idea that a limited theory helps people allocate their resources more effectively; instead, it is people with the nonlimited theory who self-regulate well in the face of high demands.

  12. Sex-related differences in growth and carbon allocation to defence in Populus tremula as explained by current plant defence theories.

    PubMed

    Randriamanana, Tendry R; Nybakken, Line; Lavola, Anu; Aphalo, Pedro J; Nissinen, Katri; Julkunen-Tiitto, Riitta

    2014-05-01

    Plant defence theories have recently evolved in such a way that not only the quantity but also the quality of mineral nutrients is expected to influence plant constitutive defence. Recently, an extended prediction derived from the protein competition model (PCM) suggested that nitrogen (N) limitation is more important for the production of phenolic compounds than phosphorus (P). We aimed at studying sexual differences in the patterns of carbon allocation to growth and constitutive defence in relation to N and P availability in Populus tremula L. seedlings. We compared the gender responses in photosynthesis, growth and whole-plant allocation to phenolic compounds at different combination levels of N and P, and studied how they are explained by the main plant defence theories. We found no sexual differences in phenolic concentrations, but interestingly, slow-growing females had higher leaf N concentration than did males, and genders differed in their allocation priority. There was a trade-off between growth and the production of flavonoid-derived phenylpropanoids on one hand, and between the production of salicylates and flavonoid-derived phenylpropanoids on the other. Under limited nutrient conditions, females prioritized mineral nutrient acquisition, flavonoid and condensed tannin (CT) production, while males invested more in above-ground biomass. Salicylate accumulation followed the growth differentiation balance hypothesis as low N mainly decreased the production of leaf and stem salicylate content while the combination of both low N and low P increased the amount of flavonoids and CTs allocated to leaves and to a lesser extent stems, which agrees with the PCM. We suggest that such a discrepancy in the responses of salicylates and flavonoid-derived CTs is linked to their clearly distinct biosynthetic origins and/or their metabolic costs.

  13. From Hydroclimatic Prediction to Negotiated and Risk Managed Water Allocation and Reservoir Operation (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lall, U.

    2013-12-01

    The availability of long lead climate forecasts that can in turn inform streamflow, agricultural, ecological and municipal/industrial and energy demands provides an opportunity for innovations in water resources management that go beyond the current practices and paradigms. In a practical setting, managers seek to meet registered demands as well as they can. Pricing mechanisms to manage demand are rarely invoked. Drought restrictions and operations are implemented as needed, and pressures from special interest groups are sometimes accommodated through a variety of processes. In the academic literature, there is a notion that demand curves for different sectors could be established and used for "optimal management". However, the few attempts to implement such ideas have invariably failed as elicitation of demand elasticity and socio-political factors is imperfect at best. In this talk, I will focus on what is worth predicting and for whom and how operational risks for the water system can be securitized while providing a platform for priced and negotiated allocation of the resources in the presence of imperfect forecasts. The possibility of a national or regional market for water contracts as part of the framework is explored, and its potential benefits and pitfalls identified.

  14. Adaptive sex allocation in birds: the complexities of linking theory and practice.

    PubMed Central

    Komdeur, Jan; Pen, Ido

    2002-01-01

    We review some recent theoretical and empirical developments in the study of sex allocation in birds. The advent of reliable molecular sexing techniques has led to a sharp increase in the number of studies that report biased offspring sex ratios in birds. However, compelling evidence for adaptive sex allocation in birds is still very scant. We argue that there are two reasons for this: (i) standard sex allocation models, very helpful in understanding sex allocation of invertebrates, do not sufficiently take the complexities of bird life histories and physiology into account. Recent theoretical work might bring us a step closer to more realistic models; (ii) experimental field and laboratory studies on sex allocation in birds are scarce. Recent experimental work both in the laboratory and in the field shows that this is a promising approach. PMID:11958705

  15. From Theory to Practice: Implementation of a Resource Allocation Model in Health Departments

    PubMed Central

    Yaylali, Emine; Farnham, Paul G.; Schneider, Karen L.; Landers, Stewart J.; Kouzouian, Oskian; Lasry, Arielle; Purcell, David W.; Green, Timothy A.; Sansom, Stephanie L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To develop a resource allocation model to optimize health departments’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)–funded HIV prevention budgets to prevent the most new cases of HIV infection and to evaluate the model’s implementation in 4 health departments. Design, Settings, and Participants We developed a linear programming model combined with a Bernoulli process model that allocated a fixed budget among HIV prevention interventions and risk subpopulations to maximize the number of new infections prevented. The model, which required epidemiologic, behavioral, budgetary, and programmatic data, was implemented in health departments in Philadelphia, Chicago, Alabama, and Nebraska. Main Outcome Measures The optimal allocation of funds, the site-specific cost per case of HIV infection prevented rankings by intervention, and the expected number of HIV cases prevented. Results The model suggested allocating funds to HIV testing and continuum-of-care interventions in all 4 health departments. The most cost-effective intervention for all sites was HIV testing in nonclinical settings for men who have sex with men, and the least cost-effective interventions were behavioral interventions for HIV-negative persons. The pilot sites required 3 to 4 months of technical assistance to develop data inputs and generate and interpret the results. Although the sites found the model easy to use in providing quantitative evidence for allocating HIV prevention resources, they criticized the exclusion of structural interventions and the use of the model to allocate only CDC funds. Conclusions Resource allocation models have the potential to improve the allocation of limited HIV prevention resources and can be used as a decision-making guide for state and local health departments. Using such models may require substantial staff time and technical assistance. These model results emphasize the allocation of CDC funds toward testing and continuum-of-care interventions and

  16. Critical evidence for the prediction error theory in associative learning.

    PubMed

    Terao, Kanta; Matsumoto, Yukihisa; Mizunami, Makoto

    2015-03-10

    In associative learning in mammals, it is widely accepted that the discrepancy, or error, between actual and predicted reward determines whether learning occurs. Complete evidence for the prediction error theory, however, has not been obtained in any learning systems: Prediction error theory stems from the finding of a blocking phenomenon, but blocking can also be accounted for by other theories, such as the attentional theory. We demonstrated blocking in classical conditioning in crickets and obtained evidence to reject the attentional theory. To obtain further evidence supporting the prediction error theory and rejecting alternative theories, we constructed a neural model to match the prediction error theory, by modifying our previous model of learning in crickets, and we tested a prediction from the model: the model predicts that pharmacological intervention of octopaminergic transmission during appetitive conditioning impairs learning but not formation of reward prediction itself, and it thus predicts no learning in subsequent training. We observed such an "auto-blocking", which could be accounted for by the prediction error theory but not by other competitive theories to account for blocking. This study unambiguously demonstrates validity of the prediction error theory in associative learning.

  17. [A simulation model for predicting the dry matter allocation in cut lily plants under effects of substrate water potential].

    PubMed

    Dong, Yong-Yi; Li, Gang; An, Dong-Sheng; Luo, Wei-Hong

    2012-04-01

    Dry matter allocation and translocation is the base of the formation of appearance quality of ornamental plants, and strongly affected by water supply. Taking cut lily cultivar 'Sorbonne' as test material, a culture experiment of different planting dates and water supply levels was conducted in a multi-span greenhouse in Nanjing from March 2009 to January 2010 to quantitatively analyze the seasonal changes of the dry matter allocation and translocation in 'Sorbonne' plants and the effects of substrate water potential on the dry matter allocation indices for different organs (flower, stem, leaf, bulb, and root), aimed to define the critical substrate water potential for the normal growth of the cultivar, and establish a simulation model for predicting the dry matter allocation in cut lily plants under effects of substrate water potential. The model established in this study gave a good prediction on the dry mass of plant organs, with the coefficient of determination and the relative root mean square error between the simulated and measured values of the cultivar' s flower dry mass, stem dry mass, leaf dry mass, bulb dry mass, and root dry mass being 0.96 and 19.2%, 0.95 and 12.4%, 0.86 and 19.4%, 0.95 and 12.2%, and 0.85 and 31.7%, respectively. The critical water potential for the water management of cut lily could be -15 kPa.

  18. Efficient Nash Equilibrium Resource Allocation Based on Game Theory Mechanism in Cloud Computing by Using Auction.

    PubMed

    Nezarat, Amin; Dastghaibifard, G H

    2015-01-01

    One of the most complex issues in the cloud computing environment is the problem of resource allocation so that, on one hand, the cloud provider expects the most profitability and, on the other hand, users also expect to have the best resources at their disposal considering the budget constraints and time. In most previous work conducted, heuristic and evolutionary approaches have been used to solve this problem. Nevertheless, since the nature of this environment is based on economic methods, using such methods can decrease response time and reducing the complexity of the problem. In this paper, an auction-based method is proposed which determines the auction winner by applying game theory mechanism and holding a repetitive game with incomplete information in a non-cooperative environment. In this method, users calculate suitable price bid with their objective function during several round and repetitions and send it to the auctioneer; and the auctioneer chooses the winning player based the suggested utility function. In the proposed method, the end point of the game is the Nash equilibrium point where players are no longer inclined to alter their bid for that resource and the final bid also satisfies the auctioneer's utility function. To prove the response space convexity, the Lagrange method is used and the proposed model is simulated in the cloudsim and the results are compared with previous work. At the end, it is concluded that this method converges to a response in a shorter time, provides the lowest service level agreement violations and the most utility to the provider.

  19. Role of price and enforcement in water allocation: Insights from Game Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souza Filho, Francisco Assis; Lall, Upmanu; Porto, Rubem La Laina

    2008-12-01

    As many countries are moving toward water sector reforms, practical issues of how water management institutions can better effect allocation, regulation, and enforcement of water rights have emerged. The problem of nonavailability of water to tailenders on an irrigation system in developing countries, due to unlicensed upstream diversions is well documented. The reliability of access or equivalently the uncertainty associated with water availability at their diversion point becomes a parameter that is likely to influence the application by users for water licenses, as well as their willingness to pay for licensed use. The ability of a water agency to reduce this uncertainty through effective water rights enforcement is related to the fiscal ability of the agency to monitor and enforce licensed use. In this paper, this interplay across the users and the agency is explored, considering the hydraulic structure or sequence of water use and parameters that define the users and the agency's economics. The potential for free rider behavior by the users, as well as their proposals for licensed use are derived conditional on this setting. The analyses presented are developed in the framework of the theory of "Law and Economics," with user interactions modeled as a game theoretic enterprise. The state of Ceara, Brazil, is used loosely as an example setting, with parameter values for the experiments indexed to be approximately those relevant for current decisions. The potential for using the ideas in participatory decision making is discussed. This paper is an initial attempt to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing such situations but with a focus on the reservoir-canal system water rights enforcement.

  20. Efficient Nash Equilibrium Resource Allocation Based on Game Theory Mechanism in Cloud Computing by Using Auction

    PubMed Central

    Nezarat, Amin; Dastghaibifard, GH

    2015-01-01

    One of the most complex issues in the cloud computing environment is the problem of resource allocation so that, on one hand, the cloud provider expects the most profitability and, on the other hand, users also expect to have the best resources at their disposal considering the budget constraints and time. In most previous work conducted, heuristic and evolutionary approaches have been used to solve this problem. Nevertheless, since the nature of this environment is based on economic methods, using such methods can decrease response time and reducing the complexity of the problem. In this paper, an auction-based method is proposed which determines the auction winner by applying game theory mechanism and holding a repetitive game with incomplete information in a non-cooperative environment. In this method, users calculate suitable price bid with their objective function during several round and repetitions and send it to the auctioneer; and the auctioneer chooses the winning player based the suggested utility function. In the proposed method, the end point of the game is the Nash equilibrium point where players are no longer inclined to alter their bid for that resource and the final bid also satisfies the auctioneer’s utility function. To prove the response space convexity, the Lagrange method is used and the proposed model is simulated in the cloudsim and the results are compared with previous work. At the end, it is concluded that this method converges to a response in a shorter time, provides the lowest service level agreement violations and the most utility to the provider. PMID:26431035

  1. Toward a predictive theory for environmental enrichment.

    PubMed

    Watters, Jason V

    2009-11-01

    There have been many applications of and successes with environmental enrichment for captive animals. The theoretical spine upon which much enrichment work hangs largely describes why enrichment should work. Yet, there remains no clear understanding of how enrichment should be applied to achieve the most beneficial results. This lack of understanding may stem in part from the assumptions that underlie the application of enrichment by practitioners. These assumptions are derived from an understanding that giving animals choice and control in their environment stimulates their motivation to perform behaviors that may indicate a heightened state of well-being. Learning theory provides a means to question the manner in which these constructs are routinely applied, and converting learning theory's findings to optimality predictions suggests a particularly vexing paradox-that motivation to perform appears to be maintained best when acquiring a payoff for expressing the behavior is uncertain. This effect occurs even when the actual value of the payoff is the same for all schedules of certainty of payoff acquisition. The paradox can be resolved by invoking rewards of an alternative type, such as cognitive rewards, or through an understanding of how the average payoff changes with changes in the probability of reward. This model, with measures of the average change of the payoff, suggests testable scenarios by which practitioners can measure the quality of environmental uncertainty in enrichment programs.

  2. Toward a predictive theory of wetting dynamics.

    PubMed

    Duvivier, Damien; Blake, Terence D; De Coninck, Joël

    2013-08-13

    The molecular kinetic theory (MKT) of dynamic wetting, first proposed nearly 50 years ago, has since been refined to account explicitly for the effects of viscosity and solid-liquid interactions. The MKT asserts that the systematic deviation of the dynamic contact angle from its equilibrium value quantitatively reflects local energy dissipation (friction) at the moving contact line as it traverses sites of solid-liquid interaction. Specifically, it predicts that the coefficient of contact-line friction ζ will be proportional to the viscosity of the liquid ηL and exponentially dependent upon the strength of solid-liquid interactions as measured by the equilibrium work of adhesion Wa(0). Here, we analyze a very large set of dynamic wetting data drawn from more than 20 publications and representative of a very wide range of systems, from molecular-dynamics-simulated Lenard-Jones liquids and substrates, through conventional liquids and solids, to molten glasses and liquid metals on refractory solids. The combined set spans 9 decades of viscosity and 11 decades of contact-line friction. Our analysis confirms the predicted dependence of ζ upon ηL and Wa(0), although the data are scattered. In particular, a plot of ln(ζ/ηL) versus Wa(0)/n (i.e., the work of adhesion per solid-liquid interaction site) is broadly linear, with 85% of the data falling within a triangular envelope defined by Wa(0) and 0.25Wa(0). Various reasons for this divergence are explored, and a semi-empirical approach is proposed to predict ζ. We suggest that the broad agreement between the MKT and such a wide range of data is strong evidence that the local microscopic contact angle is directly dependent upon the velocity of the contact line.

  3. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2013-01-01

    A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg- Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application.

  4. Predicting Preference for Items during Periods of Extended Access Based on Early Response Allocation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rapp, John T.; Rojas, Nairim C.; Colby-Dirksen, Amanda M.; Swanson, Greg J.; Marvin, Kendra L.

    2010-01-01

    Top-ranked items were identified during 30-min free-operant preference assessments for 9 individuals. Data from each session were analyzed to identify the item (a) that was engaged with first in each session and (b) to which the most responding was allocated after 5 min, 10 min, 15 min, 20 min, and 25 min had elapsed in each session. The results…

  5. Updating the Premotor Theory: The Allocation of Attention Is Not Always Accompanied by Saccade Preparation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belopolsky, Artem V.; Theeuwes, Jan

    2012-01-01

    There is an ongoing controversy regarding the relationship between covert attention and saccadic eye movements. While there is quite some evidence that the preparation of a saccade is obligatory preceded by a shift of covert attention, the reverse is not clear: Is allocation of attention always accompanied by saccade preparation? Recently, a…

  6. Ethical models in bioethics: theory and application in organ allocation policies.

    PubMed

    Petrini, C

    2010-12-01

    Policies for allocating organs to people awaiting a transplant constitute a major ethical challenge. First and foremost, they demand balance between the principles of beneficence and justice, but many other ethically relevant principles are also involved: autonomy, responsibility, equity, efficiency, utility, therapeutic outcome, medical urgency, and so forth. Various organ allocation models can be developed based on the hierarchical importance assigned to a given principle over the others, but none of the principles should be completely disregarded. An ethically acceptable organ allocation policy must therefore be in conformity, to a certain extent, with the requirements of all the principles. Many models for organ allocation can be derived. The utilitarian model aims to maximize benefits, which can be of various types on a social or individual level, such as the number of lives saved, prognosis, and so forth. The prioritarian model favours the neediest or those who suffer most. The egalitarian model privileges equity and justice, suggesting that all people should have an equal opportunity (casual allocation) or priority should be given to those who have been waiting longer. The personalist model focuses on each individual patient, attempting to mesh together all the various aspects affecting the person: therapeutic needs (urgency), fairness, clinical outcomes, respect for persons. In the individualistic model the main element is free choice and the system of opting-in is privileged. Contrary to the individualistic model, the communitarian model identities in the community the fundamental elements for the legitimacy of choices: therefore, the system of opting-out is privileged. This article does not aim at suggesting practical solutions. Rather, it furnishes to decision makers an overview on the possible ethical approach to this matter.

  7. Cultural Differences in Equity Theory Predictions of Relational Maintenance Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yum, Young-ok; Canary, Daniel J.

    2009-01-01

    This study examined whether the theoretic role of equity in predicting relational maintenance strategies is modified by participant country and culture. Research on equity theory in relationships has been conducted primarily in the United States and Western Europe. We argue that equity theory predictions regarding relational communication probably…

  8. Predicting inter-season price jumps in the market for temporary water allocations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plummer, Jonathan; Schreider, Sergei

    2015-06-01

    The market for temporary water allocations in the Northern Victoria Regulated river system has matured to the point where new instruments to manage risk can be of benefit to water users. One of these instruments could be a series of option contracts issued by the Water Authority. However a serious impediment to the introduction of options is the variation in prices across seasons. Prices jump between the end of one season and the beginning of the next mean that appropriate option strike prices cannot be determined until a period of trading in the new season allows price discovery to take place. This prevents an options market being available at the beginning of the season when it is most useful to irrigators. In this paper we look at winter rainfall for the town of Jamieson, upstream of Lake Eildon and the volume of water in Lake Eildon as predictors of the price of temporary water allocations at the beginning of the irrigation season. We develop a climate driven regression model which allows us to link the inter-seasonal jumps with the biophysical parameters of the system. By better understanding the factors dictating the size of the price jumps between seasons options can be developed that are not restricted to the current season. We also consider the implications of the infrastructure upgrades currently underway and recent policy changes on the market for temporary water allocations. The carryover policy which allows water to be kept for use in subsequent seasons, and the reserve policy, which is designed to allow the delivery of initial allocations and water carried over at the start of the irrigation season each year, are two recent policy innovations. These policies should smooth prices and reduce the jump in prices that have been seen between irrigation seasons.

  9. The Allocation of Runway Slots by Auction. Volume III. Theory and Technical Issues for Implementation.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-04-15

    air polution , noise, landside traffic c.)ngestion and so on--dictate a different approach at l_ ast for some congested airports (notably Washington...approaches to slot auctions have not allowed for the inter- dependency of slot values to the air carriers--a single slot for a landing of an aircraft is...slot exchange. 17. Key Woeds II. Distrlbution Stmtome Slot, exchange, auction, trading, air Document is available to the public carriers, allocation

  10. General Theory versus ENA Theory: Comparing Their Predictive Accuracy and Scope.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Lee; Hoskin, Anthony; Hartley, Richard; Walsh, Anthony; Widmayer, Alan; Ratnasingam, Malini

    2015-12-01

    General theory attributes criminal behavior primarily to low self-control, whereas evolutionary neuroandrogenic (ENA) theory envisions criminality as being a crude form of status-striving promoted by high brain exposure to androgens. General theory predicts that self-control will be negatively correlated with risk-taking, while ENA theory implies that these two variables should actually be positively correlated. According to ENA theory, traits such as pain tolerance and muscularity will be positively associated with risk-taking and criminality while general theory makes no predictions concerning these relationships. Data from Malaysia and the United States are used to test 10 hypotheses derived from one or both of these theories. As predicted by both theories, risk-taking was positively correlated with criminality in both countries. However, contrary to general theory and consistent with ENA theory, the correlation between self-control and risk-taking was positive in both countries. General theory's prediction of an inverse correlation between low self-control and criminality was largely supported by the U.S. data but only weakly supported by the Malaysian data. ENA theory's predictions of positive correlations between pain tolerance, muscularity, and offending were largely confirmed. For the 10 hypotheses tested, ENA theory surpassed general theory in predictive scope and accuracy.

  11. The Argumentative Theory: Predictions and Empirical Evidence.

    PubMed

    Mercier, Hugo

    2016-09-01

    The argumentative theory of reasoning suggests that the main function of reasoning is to exchange arguments with others. This theory explains key properties of reasoning. When reasoners produce arguments, they are biased and lazy, as can be expected if reasoning is a mechanism that aims at convincing others in interactive contexts. By contrast, reasoners are more objective and demanding when they evaluate arguments provided by others. This fundamental asymmetry between production and evaluation explains the effects of reasoning in different contexts: the more debate and conflict between opinions there is, the more argument evaluation prevails over argument production, resulting in better outcomes. Here I review how the argumentative theory of reasoning helps integrate a wide range of empirical findings in reasoning research.

  12. Optimal control model predictions of system performance and attention allocation and their experimental validation in a display design study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johannsen, G.; Govindaraj, T.

    1980-01-01

    The influence of different types of predictor displays in a longitudinal vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) hover task is analyzed in a theoretical study. Several cases with differing amounts of predictive and rate information are compared. The optimal control model of the human operator is used to estimate human and system performance in terms of root-mean-square (rms) values and to compute optimized attention allocation. The only part of the model which is varied to predict these data is the observation matrix. Typical cases are selected for a subsequent experimental validation. The rms values as well as eye-movement data are recorded. The results agree favorably with those of the theoretical study in terms of relative differences. Better matching is achieved by revised model input data.

  13. Prediction in Sport: Theories and Applications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Disch, James G.; Morrow, James R., Jr.

    The use of various physiological tests and measurements accurately predicts the performance ratings of female athletes. A study involving 180 female intercollegiate volleyball players, 142 female intercollegiate basketball players, and 115 female college-age nonathletes yielded a set of statistical differentials concerning arm length, lean weight…

  14. Predicting Networked Strategic Behavior via Machine Learning and Game Theory

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-13

    Report: Predicting Networked Strategic Behavior via Machine Learning and Game Theory The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report...2211 machine learning, game theory , microeconomics, behavioral data REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 10. SPONSOR...Strategic Behavior via Machine Learning and Game Theory Report Title The funding for this project was used to develop basic models, methodology

  15. Against matching theory: predictions of an evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics.

    PubMed

    McDowell, J J; Calvin, Nicholas T

    2015-05-01

    A selectionist theory of adaptive behavior dynamics instantiates the idea that behavior evolves in response to selection pressure from the environment in the form of resource acquisition or threat escape or avoidance. The theory is implemented by a computer program that creates an artificial organism and animates it with a population of potential behaviors. The population undergoes selection, recombination, and mutation across generations, or ticks of time, which produces a continuous stream of behavior that can be studied as if it were the behavior of a live organism. Novel predictions of the evolutionary theory can be compared to predictions of matching theory in a critical experiment that arranges concurrent schedules with reinforcer magnitudes that vary across conditions in one component of the schedules but not the other. Matching theory and the evolutionary theory make conflicting predictions about the outcome of this critical experiment, such that the results must disconfirm at least one of the theories.

  16. Entity versus incremental theories predict older adults' memory performance.

    PubMed

    Plaks, Jason E; Chasteen, Alison L

    2013-12-01

    The authors examined whether older adults' implicit theories regarding the modifiability of memory in particular (Studies 1 and 3) and abilities in general (Study 2) would predict memory performance. In Study 1, individual differences in older adults' endorsement of the "entity theory" (a belief that one's ability is fixed) or "incremental theory" (a belief that one's ability is malleable) of memory were measured using a version of the Implicit Theories Measure (Dweck, 1999). Memory performance was assessed with a free-recall task. Results indicated that the higher the endorsement of the incremental theory, the better the free recall. In Study 2, older and younger adults' theories were measured using a more general version of the Implicit Theories Measure that focused on the modifiability of abilities in general. Again, for older adults, the higher the incremental endorsement, the better the free recall. Moreover, as predicted, implicit theories did not predict younger adults' memory performance. In Study 3, participants read mock news articles reporting evidence in favor of either the entity or incremental theory. Those in the incremental condition outperformed those in the entity condition on reading span and free-recall tasks. These effects were mediated by pretask worry such that, for those in the entity condition, higher worry was associated with lower performance. Taken together, these studies suggest that variation in entity versus incremental endorsement represents a key predictor of older adults' memory performance.

  17. A Novel Optimal Joint Resource Allocation Method in Cooperative Multicarrier Networks: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Yuan; Zhou, Weigui; Ao, Hong; Chu, Jian; Zhou, Quan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Kang; Li, Yi; Xue, Peng

    2016-01-01

    With the increasing demands for better transmission speed and robust quality of service (QoS), the capacity constrained backhaul gradually becomes a bottleneck in cooperative wireless networks, e.g., in the Internet of Things (IoT) scenario in joint processing mode of LTE-Advanced Pro. This paper focuses on resource allocation within capacity constrained backhaul in uplink cooperative wireless networks, where two base stations (BSs) equipped with single antennae serve multiple single-antennae users via multi-carrier transmission mode. In this work, we propose a novel cooperative transmission scheme based on compress-and-forward with user pairing to solve the joint mixed integer programming problem. To maximize the system capacity under the limited backhaul, we formulate the joint optimization problem of user sorting, subcarrier mapping and backhaul resource sharing among different pairs (subcarriers for users). A novel robust and efficient centralized algorithm based on alternating optimization strategy and perfect mapping is proposed. Simulations show that our novel method can improve the system capacity significantly under the constraint of the backhaul resource compared with the blind alternatives. PMID:27077865

  18. The energy allocation function of sleep: a unifying theory of sleep, torpor, and continuous wakefulness.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Markus H

    2014-11-01

    The energy allocation (EA) model defines behavioral strategies that optimize the temporal utilization of energy to maximize reproductive success. This model proposes that all species of the animal kingdom share a universal sleep function that shunts waking energy utilization toward sleep-dependent biological investment. For endotherms, REM sleep evolved to enhance energy appropriation for somatic and CNS-related processes by eliminating thermoregulatory defenses and skeletal muscle tone. Alternating REM with NREM sleep conserves energy by decreasing the need for core body temperature defense. Three EA phenotypes are proposed: sleep-wake cycling, torpor, and continuous (or predominant) wakefulness. Each phenotype carries inherent costs and benefits. Sleep-wake cycling downregulates specific biological processes in waking and upregulates them in sleep, thereby decreasing energy demands imposed by wakefulness, reducing cellular infrastructure requirements, and resulting in overall energy conservation. Torpor achieves the greatest energy savings, but critical biological operations are compromised. Continuous wakefulness maximizes niche exploitation, but endures the greatest energy demands. The EA model advances a new construct for understanding sleep-wake organization in ontogenetic and phylogenetic domains.

  19. No extension of quantum theory can have improved predictive power.

    PubMed

    Colbeck, Roger; Renner, Renato

    2011-08-02

    According to quantum theory, measurements generate random outcomes, in stark contrast with classical mechanics. This raises the question of whether there could exist an extension of the theory that removes this indeterminism, as suspected by Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen. Although this has been shown to be impossible, existing results do not imply that the current theory is maximally informative. Here we ask the more general question of whether any improved predictions can be achieved by any extension of quantum theory. Under the assumption that measurements can be chosen freely, we answer this question in the negative: no extension of quantum theory can give more information about the outcomes of future measurements than quantum theory itself. Our result has significance for the foundations of quantum mechanics, as well as applications to tasks that exploit the inherent randomness in quantum theory, such as quantum cryptography.

  20. Phenotypic engineering of sperm-production rate confirms evolutionary predictions of sperm competition theory

    PubMed Central

    Sekii, Kiyono; Vizoso, Dita B.; Kuales, Georg; De Mulder, Katrien; Ladurner, Peter; Schärer, Lukas

    2013-01-01

    Sperm production is a key male reproductive trait and an important parameter in sperm competition theory. Under sperm competition, paternity success is predicted to depend strongly on male allocation to sperm production. Furthermore, because sperm production is inherently costly, individuals should economize in sperm expenditure, and conditional adjustment of the copulation frequency according to their sperm availability may be expected. However, experimental studies showing effects of sperm production on mating behaviour and paternity success have so far been scarce, mainly because sperm production is difficult to manipulate directly in animals. Here, we used phenotypic engineering to manipulate sperm-production rate, by employing dose-dependent RNA interference (RNAi) of a spermatogenesis-specific gene, macbol1, in the free-living flatworm Macrostomum lignano. We demonstrate (i) that our novel dose-dependent RNAi approach allows us to induce high variability in sperm-production rate; (ii) that a reduced sperm-production rate is associated with a decreased copulation frequency, suggesting conditional adjustment of mating behaviour; and (iii) that both sperm production and copulation frequency are important determinants of paternity success in a competitive situation, as predicted by sperm competition theory. Our study clearly documents the potential of phenotypic engineering via dose-dependent RNAi to test quantitative predictions of evolutionary theory. PMID:23446521

  1. Prediction and Theory Evaluation: The Case of Light Bending

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brush, Stephen G.

    1989-12-01

    Is a theory that makes successful predictions of new facts better than one that does not? Does a fact provide better evidence for a theory if it was not known before being deduced from the theory? These questions can be answered by analyzing historical cases. Einstein's successful prediction of gravitational light bending from his general theory of relativity has been presented as an important example of how ``real'' science works (in contrast to alleged pseudosciences like psychoanalysis). But, while this success gained favorable publicity for the theory, most scientists did not give it any more weight than the deduction of the advance of Mercury's perihelion (a phenomenon known for several decades). The fact that scientists often use the word ``prediction'' to describe the deduction of such previously known facts suggests that novelty may be of little importance in evaluating theories. It may even detract from the evidential value of a fact, until it is clear that competing theories cannot account for the new fact.

  2. Comparison of three methods for the optimal allocation of hydrological model participation in an Ensemble Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brochero, D.; Anctil, F.; Gagné, C.

    2012-04-01

    Today, the availability of the Meteorological Ensemble Prediction Systems (MEPS) and its subsequent coupling with multiple hydrological models offer the possibility of building Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) consisting of a large number of members. However, this task is complex both in terms of the coupling of information and of the computational time, which may create an operational barrier. The evaluation of the prominence of each hydrological members can be seen as a non-parametric post-processing stage that seeks finding the optimal participation of the hydrological models (in a fashion similar to the Bayesian model averaging technique), maintaining or improving the quality of a probabilistic forecasts based on only x members drawn from a super ensemble of d members, thus allowing the reduction of the task required to issue the probabilistic forecast. The main objective of the current work consists in assessing the degree of simplification (reduction of the number of hydrological members) that can be achieved with a HEPS configured using 16 lumped hydrological models driven by the 50 weather ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), i.e. an 800-member HEPS. In a previous work (Brochero et al., 2011a, b), we demonstrated that the proportion of members allocated to each hydrological model is a sufficient criterion to reduce the number of hydrological members while improving the balance of the scores, taking into account interchangeability of the ECMWF MEPS. Here, we compare the proportion of members allocated to each hydrological model derived from three non-parametric techniques: correlation analysis of hydrological members, Backward Greedy Selection (BGS) and Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA II). The last two techniques allude to techniques developed in machine learning, in a multicriteria framework exploiting the relationship between bias, reliability, and the number of members of the

  3. Interior noise prediction methodology: ATDAC theory and validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathur, Gopal P.; Gardner, Bryce K.

    1992-01-01

    The Acoustical Theory for Design of Aircraft Cabins (ATDAC) is a computer program developed to predict interior noise levels inside aircraft and to evaluate the effects of different aircraft configurations on the aircraft acoustical environment. The primary motivation for development of this program is the special interior noise problems associated with advanced turboprop (ATP) aircraft where there is a tonal, low frequency noise problem. Prediction of interior noise levels requires knowledge of the energy sources, the transmission paths, and the relationship between the energy variable and the sound pressure level. The energy sources include engine noise, both airborne and structure-borne; turbulent boundary layer noise; and interior noise sources such as air conditioner noise and auxiliary power unit noise. Since propeller and engine noise prediction programs are widely available, they are not included in ATDAC. Airborne engine noise from any prediction or measurement may be input to this program. This report describes the theory and equations implemented in the ATDAC program.

  4. Predicting vibration signals of automobile engine using chaos theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Chun; Zhang, Laibin; Wang, Zhaohui

    2004-01-01

    Condition monitoring and life prediction of the vehicle engine is an important and urgent problem during the vehicle development process. The vibration signals that are closely associated with the engine running condition and its development trend are complex and nonlinear. The chaos theory is used to treat the nonlinear dynamical system recently. A novel chaos method in conjunction with SVD (singular value decomposition) denoising skill are used to predict the vibration time series. Two types of time series and their prediction errors are provided to illustrate the practical utility of the method.

  5. Posterior Predictive Assessment of Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinharay, Sandip; Johnson, Matthew S.; Stern, Hal S.

    2006-01-01

    Model checking in item response theory (IRT) is an underdeveloped area. There is no universally accepted tool for checking IRT models. The posterior predictive model-checking method is a popular Bayesian model-checking tool because it has intuitive appeal, is simple to apply, has a strong theoretical basis, and can provide graphical or numerical…

  6. Volunteering for Job Enrichment: A Test of Expectancy Theory Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Giles, William F.

    1977-01-01

    In order to test predictions derived from an expectancy theory model developed by E. E. Lawler, measures of higher-order need satisfaction, locus of control, and intrinsic motivation were obtained from 252 female assembly line workers. Implications of the results for placement of individuals in enriched jobs are discussed. (Editor/RK)

  7. An evaluation of the seismic- window theory for earthquake prediction.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNutt, M.; Heaton, T.H.

    1981-01-01

    Reports studies designed to determine whether earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area respond to a fortnightly fluctuation in tidal amplitude. It does not appear that the tide is capable of triggering earthquakes, and in particular the seismic window theory fails as a relevant method of earthquake prediction. -J.Clayton

  8. Predicting Career Indecision: A Self-Determination Theory Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guay, Frederic; Senecal, Caroline; Gauthier, Lysanne; Fernet, Claude

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to propose and test a model of career indecision based on self-determination theory (E. L. Deci & R. M. Ryan, 1985). This model posits that peer and parental styles predicted career indecision through perceived self-efficacy and autonomy. Participants were 834 college students (236 men, 581 women, 17 without gender…

  9. Posterior Predictive Model Checking for Multidimensionality in Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy; Mislevy, Robert J.; Sinharay, Sandip

    2009-01-01

    If data exhibit multidimensionality, key conditional independence assumptions of unidimensional models do not hold. The current work pursues posterior predictive model checking, a flexible family of model-checking procedures, as a tool for criticizing models due to unaccounted for dimensions in the context of item response theory. Factors…

  10. Attachment theory and theory of planned behavior: an integrative model predicting underage drinking.

    PubMed

    Lac, Andrew; Crano, William D; Berger, Dale E; Alvaro, Eusebio M

    2013-08-01

    Research indicates that peer and maternal bonds play important but sometimes contrasting roles in the outcomes of children. Less is known about attachment bonds to these 2 reference groups in young adults. Using a sample of 351 participants (18 to 20 years of age), the research integrated two theoretical traditions: attachment theory and theory of planned behavior (TPB). The predictive contribution of both theories was examined in the context of underage adult alcohol use. Using full structural equation modeling, results substantiated the hypotheses that secure peer attachment positively predicted norms and behavioral control toward alcohol, but secure maternal attachment inversely predicted attitudes and behavioral control toward alcohol. Alcohol attitudes, norms, and behavioral control each uniquely explained alcohol intentions, which anticipated an increase in alcohol behavior 1 month later. The hypothesized processes were statistically corroborated by tests of indirect and total effects. These findings support recommendations for programs designed to curtail risky levels of underage drinking using the tenets of attachment theory and TPB.

  11. DNA sequencing and predictions of the cosmic theory of life

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    2013-01-01

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  12. DNA Sequencing and Predictions of the Cosmic Theory of Life

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  13. Unifying elemental stoichiometry and metabolic theory in predicting species abundances.

    PubMed

    Ott, David; Digel, Christoph; Rall, Björn C; Maraun, Mark; Scheu, Stefan; Brose, Ulrich

    2014-10-01

    While metabolic theory predicts variance in population density within communities depending on population average body masses, the ecological stoichiometry concept relates density variation across communities to varying resource stoichiometry. Using a data set including biomass densities of 4959 populations of soil invertebrates across 48 forest sites we combined these two frameworks. We analyzed how the scaling of biomass densities with population-averaged body masses systematically interacts with stoichiometric variables. Simplified analyses employing either only body masses or only resource stoichiometry are highly context sensitive and yield variable and often misleading results. Our findings provide strong evidence that analyses of ecological state variables should integrate allometric and stoichiometric variables to explain deviations from predicted allometric scaling and avoid erroneous conclusions. In consequence, our study provides an important step towards unifying two prominent ecological theories, metabolic theory and ecological stoichiometry.

  14. Geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen in geometrid moths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kivelä, Sami M.; Välimäki, Panu; Carrasco, David; Mäenpää, Maarit I.; Mänttäri, Satu

    2012-08-01

    A resource allocation trade-off is expected when resources from a common pool are allocated to two or more traits. In holometabolous insects, resource allocation to different functions during metamorphosis relies completely on larval-derived resources. At adult eclosion, resource allocation to the abdomen at the expense of other body parts can be seen as a rough estimate of resource allocation to reproduction. Theory suggests geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen, but there are currently no empirical data on it. We measured resource allocation to the abdomen at adult eclosion in four geometrid moths along a latitudinal gradient. Resource (total dry material, carbon, nitrogen) allocation to the abdomen showed positive allometry with body size. We found geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen in each species, and this variation was independent of allometry in three species. Geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen was complex. Resource allocation to the abdomen was relatively high in partially bivoltine populations in two species, which fits theoretical predictions, but the overall support for theory is weak. This study indicates that the geographic variation in resource allocation to the abdomen is not an allometric consequence of geographic variation in resource acquisition (i.e., body size). Thus, there is a component of resource allocation that can evolve independently of resource acquisition. Our results also suggest that there may be intraspecific variation in the degree of capital versus income breeding.

  15. Reexamination of fault angles predicted by shear localization theory

    SciTech Connect

    Rudnicki, J.W.; Olsson, W.A.

    1998-02-01

    This paper reexamines orientations of shear bands (fault angles) predicted by a theory of shear localization as a bifurcation from homogeneous deformation. In contrast to the Coulomb prediction, which does not depend on deviatoric stress state, the angle between the band normal and the least (most compressive) principal stress increases as the deviatoric stress state varies from axisymmetric compression to axisymmetric extension. This variation is consistent with the data of Mogi (1967) on Dunham dolomite for axisymmetric compression, extension and biaxial compression, but the predicted angles are generally less than observed. This discrepancy may be due to anisotropy that develops due to crack growth in preferred orientations. Results from specialized constitutive relations for axisymmetric compression and plane strain that include this anisotropy indicate that it tends to increase the predicted angles. Measurements for a weak, porous sandstone (Castlegate) indicate that the band angle decreases with increasing inelastic compaction that accompanies increasing mean stress. This trend is consistent with the predictions of the theory but, for this rock, the observed angles are less than predicted.

  16. Towards a predictive theory for genetic regulatory networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tkacik, Gasper

    When cells respond to changes in the environment by regulating the expression levels of their genes, we often draw parallels between these biological processes and engineered information processing systems. One can go beyond this qualitative analogy, however, by analyzing information transmission in biochemical ``hardware'' using Shannon's information theory. Here, gene regulation is viewed as a transmission channel operating under restrictive constraints set by the resource costs and intracellular noise. We present a series of results demonstrating that a theory of information transmission in genetic regulatory circuits feasibly yields non-trivial, testable predictions. These predictions concern strategies by which individual gene regulatory elements, e.g., promoters or enhancers, read out their signals; as well as strategies by which small networks of genes, independently or in spatially coupled settings, respond to their inputs. These predictions can be quantitatively compared to the known regulatory networks and their function, and can elucidate how reproducible biological processes, such as embryonic development, can be orchestrated by networks built out of noisy components. Preliminary successes in the gap gene network of the fruit fly Drosophila indicate that a full ab initio theoretical prediction of a regulatory network is possible, a feat that has not yet been achieved for any real regulatory network. We end by describing open challenges on the path towards such a prediction.

  17. Predicting childhood obesity prevention behaviors using social cognitive theory.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Manoj; Wagner, Donald I; Wilkerson, Janice

    Four commonly suggested public health strategies to combat childhood obesity are limiting television viewing, encouraging daily physical activity, increasing fruit and vegetable intake, and increasing water consumption. This study examined the extent to which selected social cognitive theory constructs can predict these four behaviors in upper elementary children. A 52-item valid and reliable scale was administered to 159 fifth graders. Minutes of physical activity was predicted by self-efficacy to exercise and number of times taught at school (R2 = 0.072). Hours of TV watching were predicted by number of times taught about healthy eating at school and self-control through goal setting (R2 = 0.055). Glasses of water consumed were predicted by expectations for drinking water (R2 = 0.091). Servings of fruits and vegetables consumed were predicted by self-efficacy of eating fruits and vegetables (R2 = 0.137). Social cognitive theory offers a practically useful framework for designing primary prevention interventions to reduce childhood obesity.

  18. Theory of mind predicts severity level in autism.

    PubMed

    Hoogenhout, Michelle; Malcolm-Smith, Susan

    2017-02-01

    We investigated whether theory of mind skills can indicate autism spectrum disorder severity. In all, 62 children with autism spectrum disorder completed a developmentally sensitive theory of mind battery. We used intelligence quotient, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.) diagnosis and level of support needed as indicators of severity level. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, we found three distinct clusters of theory of mind ability: early-developing theory of mind (Cluster 1), false-belief reasoning (Cluster 2) and sophisticated theory of mind understanding (Cluster 3). The clusters corresponded to severe, moderate and mild autism spectrum disorder. As an indicator of level of support needed, cluster grouping predicted the type of school children attended. All Cluster 1 children attended autism-specific schools; Cluster 2 was divided between autism-specific and special needs schools and nearly all Cluster 3 children attended general special needs and mainstream schools. Assessing theory of mind skills can reliably discriminate severity levels within autism spectrum disorder.

  19. Implicit Theories About Willpower Predict Subjective Well-Being.

    PubMed

    Bernecker, Katharina; Herrmann, Marcel; Brandstätter, Veronika; Job, Veronika

    2017-04-01

    Lay theories about willpower-the belief that willpower is a limited versus nonlimited resource-affect self-control and goal striving in everyday life (Job, Dweck, & Walton, 2010). Three studies examined whether willpower theories also relate to people's subjective well-being by shaping the progress they make toward their personal goals. A cross-sectional (Study 1) and two longitudinal studies (Studies 2 and 3) measured individuals' willpower theories and different indicators of subjective well-being. Additionally, Study 3 measured goal striving and personal goal progress. A limited theory about willpower was associated with lower subjective well-being in a sample of working adults (Study 1, N = 258). Further, a limited theory predicted lower levels of well-being at a time when students faced high self-regulatory demands (Study 2, N = 196). Study 3 (N = 157) replicated the finding that students with a limited theory experienced lower well-being in phases of high self-regulatory demands and found that personal goal progress mediated this relationship. Results suggest that the belief that willpower is based on a limited resource has negative implications not only for self-control but also for personal goal striving and subjective well-being.

  20. Psychodynamic theory and counseling in predictive testing for Huntington's disease.

    PubMed

    Tassicker, Roslyn J

    2005-04-01

    This paper revisits psychodynamic theory, which can be applied in predictive testing counseling for Huntington's Disease (HD). Psychodynamic theory has developed from the work of Freud and places importance on early parent-child experiences. The nature of these relationships, or attachments are reflected in adult expectations and relationships. Two significant concepts, identification and fear of abandonment, have been developed and expounded by the psychodynamic theorist, Melanie Klein. The processes of identification and fear of abandonment can become evident in predictive testing counseling and are colored by the client's experience of growing up with a parent affected by Huntington's Disease. In reflecting on family-of-origin experiences, clients can also express implied expectations of the future, and future relationships. Case examples are given to illustrate the dynamic processes of identification and fear of abandonment which may present in the clinical setting. Counselor recognition of these processes can illuminate and inform counseling practice.

  1. A Predictive Theory for the Atmospheric Circulation of Hot Jupiters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komacek, Thaddeus; Showman, Adam

    2016-10-01

    The atmospheres of extremely close in extrasolar giant planets, or "hot Jupiters," are beginning to be analyzed as a population. Synthesizing observations of many different planets provides insight into the nature of the atmospheric circulation of these objects. Notably, the dayside-to-nightside brightness temperature difference of these tidally locked objects has been found to increase with increasing incident stellar flux in all observed infrared wavelength bands. Additionally, there is an eastward infrared phase shift on these planets, which shows tentative evidence of decreasing longitudinal offset from the substellar point with increasing day-to-night temperature differences and hence increased stellar flux. Motivated by these observations, we developed an analytic theory from first principles that predicts dayside-nightside temperature differences and horizontal and vertical wind speeds as a function of incident stellar flux, rotation rate, atmospheric composition, potential frictional drag strength, and pressure level in the atmosphere. We find that our analytic theory captures well the observed trend of increasing dayside-nightside temperature difference with increasing incident stellar flux. When applied to individual planets, the theory matches well the dayside-nightside temperature difference for planets with large incident stellar flux, but under-predicts the dayside-nightside temperature difference for planets with lower incident stellar flux. We interpret this as due to nightside clouds obscuring the nightside infrared radiation, causing an increase in the day-night temperature contrast. Assuming an eastward equatorial jet speed, we can also use this theory to estimate the infrared phase offset. We find that our theory can match all but one of the observed phase offsets with varying drag strength. Lastly, to understand how atmospheric circulation varies with incident stellar flux and drag strength, we perform three-dimensional numerical simulations

  2. Modified Rate-Theory Predictions in Comparison to Microstructural Data

    SciTech Connect

    Surh, M P; Okita, T; Wolfer, W G

    2003-11-03

    Standard rate theory methods have recently been combined with experimental microstructures to successfully reproduce measured swelling behavior in ternary steels around 400 C. Fit parameters have reasonable values except possibly for the recombination radius, R{sub c}, which can be larger than expected. Numerical simulations of void nucleation and growth reveal the importance additional recombination processes at unstable clusters. Such extra recombination may reduce the range of possible values for R{sub c}. A modified rate theory is presented here that includes the effect of these undetectably small defect clusters. The fit values for R{sub c} are not appreciably altered, as the modification has little effect on the model behavior in the late steady state. It slightly improves the predictions for early transient times, when the sink strength of stable voids and dislocations is relatively small. Standard rate theory successfully explains steady swelling behavior in high purity stainless steel.

  3. Using the theory of reasoned action to predict organizational misbehavior.

    PubMed

    Vardi, Yoav; Weitz, Ely

    2002-12-01

    A review of literature on organizational behavior and management on predicting work behavior indicated that most reported studies emphasize positive work outcomes, e.g., attachment, performance, and satisfaction, while job related misbehaviors have received relatively less systematic research attention. Yet, forms of employee misconduct in organizations are pervasive and quite costly for both individuals and organizations. We selected two conceptual frameworks for the present investigation: Vardi and Wiener's model of organizational misbehavior and Fishbein and Ajzen's Theory of Reasoned Action. The latter views individual behavior as intentional, a function of rationally based attitudes toward the behavior, and internalized normative pressures concerning such behavior. The former model posits that different (normative and instrumental) internal forces lead to the intention to engage in job-related misbehavior. In this paper we report a scenario based quasi-experimental study especially designed to test the utility of the Theory of Reasoned Action in predicting employee intentions to engage in self-benefitting (Type S), organization-benefitting (Type O, or damaging (Type D) organizational misbehavior. Results support the Theory of Reasoned Action in predicting negative workplace behaviors. Both attitude and subjective norm are useful in explaining organizational misbehavior. We discuss some theoretical and methodological implications for the study of misbehavior intentions in organizations.

  4. Reheating predictions in gravity theories with derivative coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalianis, Ioannis; Koutsoumbas, George; Ntrekis, Konstantinos; Papantonopoulos, Eleftherios

    2017-02-01

    We investigate the inflationary predictions of a simple Horndeski theory where the inflaton scalar field has a non-minimal derivative coupling (NMDC) to the Einstein tensor. The NMDC is very motivated for the construction of successful models for inflation, nevertheless its inflationary predictions are not observationally distinct. We show that it is possible to probe the effects of the NMDC on the CMB observables by taking into account both the dynamics of the inflationary slow-roll phase and the subsequent reheating. We perform a comparative study between representative inflationary models with canonical fields minimally coupled to gravity and models with NMDC. We find that the inflation models with dominant NMDC generically predict a higher reheating temperature and a different range for the tilt of the scalar perturbation spectrum ns and scalar-to-tensor ratio r, potentially testable by current and future CMB experiments.

  5. Predicting Protein Hinge Motions and Allostery Using Rigidity Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sljoka, Adnan; Bezginov, Alexandr

    2011-11-01

    Understanding how a 3D structure of a protein functions depends on predicting which regions are rigid, and which are flexible. One recent approach models molecules as a structure of fixed units (atoms with their bond angles as rigid units, bonds as hinges) plus biochemical constraints coming from the local geometry. This generates a `molecular graph' in the theory of combinatorial rigidity. The 6|V|-6 counting condition for 3-dimensional body-hinge structures (modulo molecular theorem), and a fast `pebble game' algorithm which tracks this count in the multigraph, have led to the development of the program FIRST, for rapid predictions of the flexibility of proteins. In this study we develop a novel protein hinge prediction algorithm via our extension of the pebble game algorithm (relevant regions detection algorithm). We have tested our hinge prediction algorithm on several proteins chosen from the dataset of manually annotated hinges available on the MOLMOV server. Many of our predictions are in very good agreement with this data set. Our algorithms can also predict `allosteric' interactions in proteins—where binding on one site of a molecule changes the shape or binding at a distance `active site' of the molecule. We also give some promising results which support the sliding piston-like movement of helices with respect to one another as a plausible mechanism by which GCPR receptors propagate conformational changes across membranes.

  6. Sexual system, sex ratio, and group living in the shrimp Thor amboinensis (De Man): relevance to resource-monopolization and sex-allocation theories.

    PubMed

    Baeza, J A; Piantoni, C

    2010-10-01

    The sexual system of the symbiotic shrimp Thor amboinensis is described, along with observations on sex ratio and host-use pattern of different populations. We used a comprehensive approach to elucidate the previously unknown sexual system of this shrimp. Dissections, scanning electron microscopy, size-frequency distribution analysis, and laboratory observations demonstrated that T. amboinensis is a protandric hermaphrodite: shrimp first mature as males and change into females later in life. Thor amboinensis inhabited the large and structurally heterogeneous sea anemone Stichodactyla helianthus in large groups (up to 11 individuals) more frequently than expected by chance alone. Groups exhibited no particularly complex social structure and showed male-biased sex ratios more frequently than expected by chance alone. The adult sex ratio was male-biased in the four separate populations studied, one of them being thousands of kilometers apart from the others. This study supports predictions central to theories of resource monopolization and sex allocation. Dissections demonstrated that unusually large males were parasitized by an undescribed species of isopod (family Entoniscidae). Infestation rates were similarly low in both sexes (≈11%-12%). The available information suggests that T. amboinensis uses pure search promiscuity as a mating system. This hypothesis needs to be formally tested with mating behavior observations and field measurements on the movement pattern of both sexes of the species. Further detailed studies on the lifestyle and sexual system of all the species within this genus and the development of a molecular phylogeny are necessary to elucidate the evolutionary history of gender expression in the genus Thor.

  7. Fractal Theory for Permeability Prediction, Venezuelan and USA Wells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aldana, Milagrosa; Altamiranda, Dignorah; Cabrera, Ana

    2014-05-01

    Inferring petrophysical parameters such as permeability, porosity, water saturation, capillary pressure, etc, from the analysis of well logs or other available core data has always been of critical importance in the oil industry. Permeability in particular, which is considered to be a complex parameter, has been inferred using both empirical and theoretical techniques. The main goal of this work is to predict permeability values on different wells using Fractal Theory, based on a method proposed by Pape et al. (1999). This approach uses the relationship between permeability and the geometric form of the pore space of the rock. This method is based on the modified equation of Kozeny-Carman and a fractal pattern, which allows determining permeability as a function of the cementation exponent, porosity and the fractal dimension. Data from wells located in Venezuela and the United States of America are analyzed. Employing data of porosity and permeability obtained from core samples, and applying the Fractal Theory method, we calculated the prediction equations for each well. At the beginning, this was achieved by training with 50% of the data available for each well. Afterwards, these equations were tested inferring over 100% of the data to analyze possible trends in their distribution. This procedure gave excellent results in all the wells in spite of their geographic distance, generating permeability models with the potential to accurately predict permeability logs in the remaining parts of the well for which there are no core samples, using even porority logs. Additionally, empirical models were used to determine permeability and the results were compared with those obtained by applying the fractal method. The results indicated that, although there are empirical equations that give a proper adjustment, the prediction results obtained using fractal theory give a better fit to the core reference data.

  8. Age-Related Differences in Goals: Testing Predictions from Selection, Optimization, and Compensation Theory and Socioemotional Selectivity Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penningroth, Suzanna L.; Scott, Walter D.

    2012-01-01

    Two prominent theories of lifespan development, socioemotional selectivity theory and selection, optimization, and compensation theory, make similar predictions for differences in the goal representations of younger and older adults. Our purpose was to test whether the goals of younger and older adults differed in ways predicted by these two…

  9. Pragmatic hydraulic theory predicts stomatal responses to climatic water deficits.

    PubMed

    Sperry, John S; Wang, Yujie; Wolfe, Brett T; Mackay, D Scott; Anderegg, William R L; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T

    2016-11-01

    Ecosystem models have difficulty predicting plant drought responses, partially from uncertainty in the stomatal response to water deficits in soil and atmosphere. We evaluate a 'supply-demand' theory for water-limited stomatal behavior that avoids the typical scaffold of empirical response functions. The premise is that canopy water demand is regulated in proportion to threat to supply posed by xylem cavitation and soil drying. The theory was implemented in a trait-based soil-plant-atmosphere model. The model predicted canopy transpiration (E), canopy diffusive conductance (G), and canopy xylem pressure (Pcanopy ) from soil water potential (Psoil ) and vapor pressure deficit (D). Modeled responses to D and Psoil were consistent with empirical response functions, but controlling parameters were hydraulic traits rather than coefficients. Maximum hydraulic and diffusive conductances and vulnerability to loss in hydraulic conductance dictated stomatal sensitivity and hence the iso- to anisohydric spectrum of regulation. The model matched wide fluctuations in G and Pcanopy across nine data sets from seasonally dry tropical forest and piñon-juniper woodland with < 26% mean error. Promising initial performance suggests the theory could be useful in improving ecosystem models. Better understanding of the variation in hydraulic properties along the root-stem-leaf continuum will simplify parameterization.

  10. Free-floating planets from core accretion theory: microlensing predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Sizheng; Mao, Shude; Ida, Shigeru; Zhu, Wei; Lin, Douglas N. C.

    2016-09-01

    We calculate the microlensing event rate and typical time-scales for the free-floating planet (FFP) population that is predicted by the core accretion theory of planet formation. The event rate is found to be ˜1.8 × 10-3 of that for the stellar population. While the stellar microlensing event time-scale peaks at around 20 d, the median time-scale for FFP events (˜0.1 d) is much shorter. Our values for the event rate and the median time-scale are significantly smaller than those required to explain the Sumi et al. result, by factors of ˜13 and ˜16, respectively. The inclusion of planets at wide separations does not change the results significantly. This discrepancy may be too significant for standard versions of both the core accretion theory and the gravitational instability model to explain satisfactorily. Therefore, either a modification to the planet formation theory is required or other explanations to the excess of short-time-scale microlensing events are needed. Our predictions can be tested by ongoing microlensing experiment such as Korean Microlensing Telescope Network, and by future satellite missions such as WFIRST and Euclid.

  11. Bandwidth-allocated algorithm modeled with matrix theory for traffic-orientated multisubsystem-based virtual passive optical network in metro-access optical network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Weidong; Gan, Chaoqin; Chen, Bingqin; Xie, Weilun; Zhang, YuChao; Gou, Kaiyu

    2016-09-01

    In a metro-access optical network, a bandwidth-allocated algorithm is proposed for traffic-orientated multisubsystem-based virtual passive optical network (MS-VPON) that can implement the syncretism of multiple systems such as time division multiplexing-PON (TDM-PON), wavelength division multiplexing-PON (WDM-PON), and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing-PON (OFDM-PON). VPONs are constructed based on traffic and different VPONs are separated by different types of traffic. The bandwidth-allocated algorithm is modeled with a matrix theory to determine which VPON can be admitted and then a bandwidth is assigned to these VPONs. With the algorithm, the network value can be maximized. Two cases are investigated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in the bandwidth-utilized ratio and VPONs' admission probability.

  12. Prediction of Dislocation Cores in Aluminum from Density Functional Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodward, C.; Trinkle, D. R.; Hector, L. G., Jr.; Olmsted, D. L.

    2008-02-01

    The strain field of isolated screw and edge dislocation cores in aluminum are calculated using density-functional theory and a flexible boundary condition method. Nye tensor density contours and differential displacement fields are used to accurately bound Shockley partial separation distances. Our results of 5 7.5 Å (screw) and 7.0 9.5 Å (edge) eliminate uncertainties resulting from the wide range of previous results based on Peierls-Nabarro and atomistic methods. Favorable agreement of the predicted cores with limited experimental measurements demonstrates the need for quantum mechanical treatment of dislocation cores.

  13. Resource Allocation and Productivity in Education: Theory and Practice. Contributions to the Study of Education, Number 71.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartman, William T., Ed.; Boyd, William Lowe, Ed.

    This book analyzes microlevel resource-allocation practices from a variety of levels within the educational system: the school board, district administration, building level, and classroom. Chapters include: "Productive Schools from a Policy Perspective: Desiderata, Designs, and Dilemmas" (W. L. Boyd); "The Politics of Educational Productivity"…

  14. CCN Predictions: Is Theory Sufficient for Indirect Forcing Calculations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sotiropoulou, R. P.; Medina, J.; Nenes, A.

    2005-12-01

    There are numerous studies that assess the ability to predict ambient cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations from aerosol size and composition measurements. All conclude that predictions often are significantly different from observations (e.g. Martin et al., 1994; Liu et al., 1996; Roberts et al., 2002; VanReken et al., 2003). This discrepancy may arise from many factors, the most common identified is the inability of current theory to fully describe CCN activity. Despite this "CCN closure" problem, predicting cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) from observations of cloud updraft velocity and aerosol size/composition has proven to be remarkably successful, even for cases where CCN predictions are known to be significantly different from measurements (Snider and Brenguier, 2000; Snider et al., 2003; Conant et al., 2004). Since GCM assessments of the aerosol indirect effect require accurate predictions of cloud droplet number, field studies may suggest that a relatively large error in CCN concentration may not necessarily yield large errors in CDNC. This study focuses on quantitatively assessing the sensitivity of cloud droplet number to errors in predicted CCN concentrations. For this we use ground-based CCN and aerosol measurements obtained during the ICARTT campaign (July-August 2004) at the UNH Thompson Farm site to produce "observed" and "calculated" CCN spectra. These spectra are then introduced into a parameterization of cloud droplet formation (Nenes and Seinfeld, 2003), where errors in CCN concentration (i.e., difference between "observed" and "calculated" CCN spectra) can directly be related to resulting cloud droplet number errors. This exercise is repeated for all the CCN spectra in the dataset and for a wide range of cloud updraft velocity; this allows for determining conditions for which large errors in CCN concentration do not yield significant errors in cloud droplet number (and vice versa).

  15. Evaluation of actuator disk theory for predicting indirect combustion noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Ashish; Bodony, Daniel J.

    2013-02-01

    Indirect combustion noise is believed to be a key component of turbofan engine core noise, but existing experimental data have not been able to definitively determine its importance. Instead, actuator disk theory (ADT) as developed by Cumpsty and Marble [The interaction of entropy fluctuations with turbine blade rows; a mechanism of turbojet noise, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A 357 (1977) 323-344] is commonly used to estimate its contribution based on combustor exit conditions and changes in the mean flow across blade rows. The theory, which assumes planar propagation of acoustic, entropic, and vortical waves in the long wavelength limit, is assessed by comparing its predictions to those from two-dimensional compressible Euler calculations of idealized entropy disturbances interacting with a 1980s era NASA turbine stator. Both low-frequency planar waves of constant frequency and higher-frequency, localized entropy disturbances are considered, with the former being within ADT's range of applicability and the latter outside of it. It is found that ADT performs well for the cut-on acoustic modes generated by the entropy-blade interaction but its accuracy suffers for the cut-off acoustic modes, which could impact indirect combustion noise predictions for turbines with closely spaced blade rows.

  16. Testing the predictions of coping styles theory in threespined sticklebacks.

    PubMed

    Bensky, Miles K; Paitz, Ryan; Pereira, Laura; Bell, Alison M

    2017-03-01

    Coping styles theory provides a framework for understanding individual variation in how animals respond to environmental change, and predicts how individual differences in stress responsiveness and behavior might relate to cognitive differences. According to coping styles theory, proactive individuals are bolder, less reactive to stressors, and more routinized than their reactive counterparts. A key tenet of coping styles theory is that variation in coping styles is maintained by tradeoffs with behavioral flexibility: proactive individuals excel in stable environments while more flexible, reactive individuals perform better in variable environments. Here, we assess evidence for coping styles within a natural population of threespined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We developed a criterion-based learning paradigm to evaluate individual variation in initial and reversal learning. We observed strong individual differences in boldness, cortisol production, and learning performance. Consistent with coping styles, fish that released more cortisol were more timid in response to a predator attack and slower to learn a color discrimination task. However, there was no evidence that reactive individuals performed better when the environment changed (when the rewarded color was reversed). The failure to detect trade-offs between behavioral routinization and flexibility prompts other explanations for the maintenance of differing coping styles.

  17. Testing assumptions and predictions of star formation theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Samaniego, Alejandro; Vázquez-Semadeni, Enrique; González, Ricardo F.; Kim, Jongsoo

    2014-05-01

    We present numerical simulations of isothermal, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD), supersonic turbulence, designed to test various hypotheses frequently assumed in star formation (SF) theories. This study complements our previous one in the non-magnetic (HD) case. We consider three simulations, each with different values of its physical size, rms sonic Mach number M_s, and Jeans parameter J, but so that all three have the same value of the virial parameter and conform with Larson's scaling relations. As in the non-magnetic case, we find that (1) no structures that are both subsonic and super-Jeans are produced; (2) that the fraction of small-scale super-Jeans structures increases when self-gravity is turned on, and the production of very dense cores by turbulence alone is very low. This implies that self-gravity is involved not only in the collapse of Jeans-unstable cores, but also in their formation. (3) We also find that denser regions tend to have a stronger velocity convergence, implying a net inwards flow towards the regions' centres. Contrary to the non-magnetic case, we find that the magnetic simulation with lowest values of M_s and J (respectively, 5 and 2) does not produce any collapsing regions for over three simulation free-fall times, in spite of being both Jeans-unstable and magnetically supercritical. We attribute this result to the combined thermal and magnetic support. Next, we compare the results of our HD and MHD simulations with the predictions from the recent SF theories by Krumholz & McKee, Padoan & Nordlund, and Hennebelle & Chabrier, using expressions recently provided by Federrath & Klessen, which extend those theories to the magnetic case. In both the HD and MHD cases, we find that the theoretical predictions tend to be larger than the SFEff measured in the simulations. In the MHD case, none of the theories captures the suppression of collapse at low values of Jeff by the additional support from the magnetic field. We conclude that randomly driven

  18. Cerebral asymmetry in twins: predictions of the right shift theory.

    PubMed

    Annett, Marian

    2003-01-01

    A study of the heritability of lobar brain volumes in twins has introduced a new approach to questions about the genetics of cerebral asymmetry. In addition to the classic comparison between monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins, a contrast was made between pairs of two right-handers (RR pairs) and pairs including one or more non-right-hander (non-RR pairs), in the light of the right shift (RS) theory of handedness. This paper explains the predictions of the RS model for pair concordance for genotype, cerebral asymmetry and handedness in healthy MZ and DZ twins. It shows how predictions for cerebral asymmetry vary between RR and non-RR pairs over a range of incidences of left-handedness. Although MZ twins are always concordant for genotype and DZ twins may be discordant, differences for handedness and cerebral asymmetry are expected to be small, consistent with the scarcity of significant effects in the literature. Marked differences between RR and non-RR pairs are predicted at all levels of incidence, the differences slightly larger in MZ than DZ pairs.

  19. Plant Interactions Alter the Predictions of Metabolic Scaling Theory

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yue; Berger, Uta; Grimm, Volker; Huth, Franka; Weiner, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Metabolic scaling theory (MST) is an attempt to link physiological processes of individual organisms with macroecology. It predicts a power law relationship with an exponent of −4/3 between mean individual biomass and density during density-dependent mortality (self-thinning). Empirical tests have produced variable results, and the validity of MST is intensely debated. MST focuses on organisms’ internal physiological mechanisms but we hypothesize that ecological interactions can be more important in determining plant mass-density relationships induced by density. We employ an individual-based model of plant stand development that includes three elements: a model of individual plant growth based on MST, different modes of local competition (size-symmetric vs. -asymmetric), and different resource levels. Our model is consistent with the observed variation in the slopes of self-thinning trajectories. Slopes were significantly shallower than −4/3 if competition was size-symmetric. We conclude that when the size of survivors is influenced by strong ecological interactions, these can override predictions of MST, whereas when surviving plants are less affected by interactions, individual-level metabolic processes can scale up to the population level. MST, like thermodynamics or biomechanics, sets limits within which organisms can live and function, but there may be stronger limits determined by ecological interactions. In such cases MST will not be predictive. PMID:23460884

  20. Practical theories for service life prediction of critical aerospace structural components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Monaghan, Richard C.; Jackson, Raymond H.

    1992-01-01

    A new second-order theory was developed for predicting the service lives of aerospace structural components. The predictions based on this new theory were compared with those based on the Ko first-order theory and the classical theory of service life predictions. The new theory gives very accurate service life predictions. An equivalent constant-amplitude stress cycle method was proposed for representing the random load spectrum for crack growth calculations. This method predicts the most conservative service life. The proposed use of minimum detectable crack size, instead of proof load established crack size as an initial crack size for crack growth calculations, could give a more realistic service life.

  1. Why Education Predicts Decreased Belief in Conspiracy Theories

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Summary People with high education are less likely than people with low education to believe in conspiracy theories. It is yet unclear why these effects occur, however, as education predicts a range of cognitive, emotional, and social outcomes. The present research sought to identify mediators of the relationship between education and conspiracy beliefs. Results of Study 1 revealed three independent mediators of this relationship, namely, belief in simple solutions for complex problems, feelings of powerlessness, and subjective social class. A nationally representative sample (Study 2) replicated these findings except for subjective social class. Moreover, variations in analytic thinking statistically accounted for the path through belief in simple solutions. I conclude that the relationship between education and conspiracy beliefs cannot be reduced to a single mechanism but is the result of the complex interplay of multiple psychological factors that are associated with education. © 2016 The Authors. Applied Cognitive Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28163371

  2. Transition-state theory predicts clogging at the microscale

    PubMed Central

    Laar, T. van de; Klooster, S. ten; Schroën, K.; Sprakel, J.

    2016-01-01

    Clogging is one of the main failure mechanisms encountered in industrial processes such as membrane filtration. Our understanding of the factors that govern the build-up of fouling layers and the emergence of clogs is largely incomplete, so that prevention of clogging remains an immense and costly challenge. In this paper we use a microfluidic model combined with quantitative real-time imaging to explore the influence of pore geometry and particle interactions on suspension clogging in constrictions, two crucial factors which remain relatively unexplored. We find a distinct dependence of the clogging rate on the entrance angle to a membrane pore which we explain quantitatively by deriving a model, based on transition-state theory, which describes the effect of viscous forces on the rate with which particles accumulate at the channel walls. With the same model we can also predict the effect of the particle interaction potential on the clogging rate. In both cases we find excellent agreement between our experimental data and theory. A better understanding of these clogging mechanisms and the influence of design parameters could form a stepping stone to delay or prevent clogging by rational membrane design. PMID:27328715

  3. Understanding predicted shifts in diazotroph biogeography using resource competition theory

    DOE PAGES

    Dutkiewicz, S.; Ward, B. A.; Scott, J. R.; ...

    2014-05-19

    We examine the sensitivity of the biogeography of nitrogen fixers to a warming climate and increased aeolian iron deposition in the context of a global Earth System Model. We employ concepts from Resource Ratio Theory to provide a simplifying and transparent interpretation of the results. First we demonstrate that a set of clearly defined, easily diagnosed provinces are consistent with the theory. Using the framework we show that the regions most vulnerable to province shifts and changes in diazotroph biogeography are the Equatorial and South Pacific, and central Atlantic. Warmer and dustier climates favor diazotrophs due to an increase inmore » the ratio of supply rate of iron to fixed nitrogen. The analysis suggests that monitoring of real world province boundaries, indicated by transitions in surface nutrient concentrations, would provide a clear and easily interpreted indicator of ongoing global change. We suggest that the emergent provinces could be a standard diagnostic for global change models, allowing for rapid and transparent interpretation and comparison of model predictions and the underlying mechanisms.« less

  4. Understanding predicted shifts in diazotroph biogeography using resource competition theory

    DOE PAGES

    Dutkiewicz, S.; Ward, B. A.; Scott, J. R.; ...

    2014-10-08

    We examine the sensitivity of the biogeography of nitrogen fixers to a warming climate and increased aeolian iron deposition in the context of a global earth system model. We employ concepts from the resource-ratio theory to provide a simplifying and transparent interpretation of the results. First we demonstrate that a set of clearly defined, easily diagnosed provinces are consistent with the theory. Using this framework we show that the regions most vulnerable to province shifts and changes in diazotroph biogeography are the equatorial and South Pacific, and central Atlantic. Warmer and dustier climates favor diazotrophs due to an increase inmore » the ratio of supply rate of iron to fixed nitrogen. We suggest that the emergent provinces could be a standard diagnostic for global change models, allowing for rapid and transparent interpretation and comparison of model predictions and the underlying mechanisms. The analysis suggests that monitoring of real world province boundaries, indicated by transitions in surface nutrient concentrations, would provide a clear and easily interpreted indicator of ongoing global change.« less

  5. Singular perturbation theory for predicting extravasation of Brownian particles

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Preyas; Fitzgibbon, Sean; Narsimhan, Vivek; Shaqfeh, Eric S. G.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by recent studies on tumor treatments using the drug delivery of nanoparticles, we provide a singular perturbation theory and perform Brownian dynamics simulations to quantify the extravasation rate of Brownian particles in a shear flow over a circular pore with a lumped mass transfer resistance. The analytic theory we present is an expansion in the limit of a vanishing Péclet number (P), which is the ratio of convective fluxes to diffusive fluxes on the length scale of the pore. We state the concentration of particles near the pore and the extravasation rate (Sherwood number) to O(P1/2). This model improves upon previous studies because the results are valid for all values of the particle mass transfer coefficient across the pore, as modeled by the Damköhler number (κ), which is the ratio of the reaction rate to the diffusive mass transfer rate at the boundary. Previous studies focused on the adsorption-dominated regime (i.e., κ → ∞). Specifically, our work provides a theoretical basis and an interpolation-based approximate method for calculating the Sherwood number (a measure of the extravasation rate) for the case of finite resistance [κ ~ O(1)] at small Péclet numbers, which are physiologically important in the extravasation of nanoparticles. We compare the predictions of our theory and an approximate method to Brownian dynamics simulations with reflection–reaction boundary conditions as modeled by κ. They are found to agree well at small P and for the κ ≪ 1 and κ ≫ 1 asymptotic limits representing the diffusion-dominated and adsorption-dominated regimes, respectively. Although this model neglects the finite size effects of the particles, it provides an important first step toward understanding the physics of extravasation in the tumor vasculature. PMID:24563548

  6. Fatigue-Life Prediction Methodology Using Small-Crack Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newmann, James C., Jr.; Phillips, Edward P.; Swain, M. H.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews the capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model to predict fatigue lives of metallic materials using 'small-crack theory' for various materials and loading conditions. Crack-tip constraint factors, to account for three-dimensional state-of-stress effects, were selected to correlate large-crack growth rate data as a function of the effective-stress-intensity factor range (delta K(eff)) under constant-amplitude loading. Some modifications to the delta k(eff)-rate relations were needed in the near-threshold regime to fit measured small-crack growth rate behavior and fatigue endurance limits. The model was then used to calculate small- and large-crack growth rates, and to predict total fatigue lives, for notched and un-notched specimens made of two aluminum alloys and a steel under constant-amplitude and spectrum loading. Fatigue lives were calculated using the crack-growth relations and microstructural features like those that initiated cracks for the aluminum alloys and steel for edge-notched specimens. An equivalent-initial-flaw-size concept was used to calculate fatigue lives in other cases. Results from the tests and analyses agreed well.

  7. Predicting Stability Constants for Uranyl Complexes Using Density Functional Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Vukovic, Sinisa; Hay, Benjamin P.; Bryantsev, Vyacheslav S.

    2015-04-02

    The ability to predict the equilibrium constants for the formation of 1:1 uranyl:ligand complexes (log K1 values) provides the essential foundation for the rational design of ligands with enhanced uranyl affinity and selectivity. We also use density functional theory (B3LYP) and the IEFPCM continuum solvation model to compute aqueous stability constants for UO22+ complexes with 18 donor ligands. Theoretical calculations permit reasonably good estimates of relative binding strengths, while the absolute log K1 values are significantly overestimated. Accurate predictions of the absolute log K1 values (root mean square deviation from experiment < 1.0 for log K1 values ranging from 0 to 16.8) can be obtained by fitting the experimental data for two groups of mono and divalent negative oxygen donor ligands. The utility of correlations is demonstrated for amidoxime and imide dioxime ligands, providing a useful means of screening for new ligands with strong chelate capability to uranyl.

  8. Predicting Stability Constants for Uranyl Complexes Using Density Functional Theory

    DOE PAGES

    Vukovic, Sinisa; Hay, Benjamin P.; Bryantsev, Vyacheslav S.

    2015-04-02

    The ability to predict the equilibrium constants for the formation of 1:1 uranyl:ligand complexes (log K1 values) provides the essential foundation for the rational design of ligands with enhanced uranyl affinity and selectivity. We also use density functional theory (B3LYP) and the IEFPCM continuum solvation model to compute aqueous stability constants for UO22+ complexes with 18 donor ligands. Theoretical calculations permit reasonably good estimates of relative binding strengths, while the absolute log K1 values are significantly overestimated. Accurate predictions of the absolute log K1 values (root mean square deviation from experiment < 1.0 for log K1 values ranging from 0more » to 16.8) can be obtained by fitting the experimental data for two groups of mono and divalent negative oxygen donor ligands. The utility of correlations is demonstrated for amidoxime and imide dioxime ligands, providing a useful means of screening for new ligands with strong chelate capability to uranyl.« less

  9. Commodity predictability analysis with a permutation information theory approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zunino, Luciano; Tabak, Benjamin M.; Serinaldi, Francesco; Zanin, Massimiliano; Pérez, Darío G.; Rosso, Osvaldo A.

    2011-03-01

    It is widely known that commodity markets are not totally efficient. Long-range dependence is present, and thus the celebrated Brownian motion of prices can be considered only as a first approximation. In this work we analyzed the predictability in commodity markets by using a novel approach derived from Information Theory. The complexity-entropy causality plane has been recently shown to be a useful statistical tool to distinguish the stage of stock market development because differences between emergent and developed stock markets can be easily discriminated and visualized with this representation space [L. Zunino, M. Zanin, B.M. Tabak, D.G. Pérez, O.A. Rosso, Complexity-entropy causality plane: a useful approach to quantify the stock market inefficiency, Physica A 389 (2010) 1891-1901]. By estimating the permutation entropy and permutation statistical complexity of twenty basic commodity future markets over a period of around 20 years (1991.01.02-2009.09.01), we can define an associated ranking of efficiency. This ranking is quantifying the presence of patterns and hidden structures in these prime markets. Moreover, the temporal evolution of the commodities in the complexity-entropy causality plane allows us to identify periods of time where the underlying dynamics is more or less predictable.

  10. Incorporation of Half-Cycle Theory Into Ko Aging Theory for Aerostructural Flight-Life Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Tran, Van T.; Chen, Tony

    2007-01-01

    The half-cycle crack growth theory was incorporated into the Ko closed-form aging theory to improve accuracy in the predictions of operational flight life of failure-critical aerostructural components. A new crack growth computer program was written for reading the maximum and minimum loads of each half-cycle from the random loading spectra for crack growth calculations and generation of in-flight crack growth curves. The unified theories were then applied to calculate the number of flights (operational life) permitted for B-52B pylon hooks and Pegasus adapter pylon hooks to carry the Hyper-X launching vehicle that air launches the X-43 Hyper-X research vehicle. A crack growth curve for each hook was generated for visual observation of the crack growth behavior during the entire air-launching or captive flight. It was found that taxiing and the takeoff run induced a major portion of the total crack growth per flight. The operational life theory presented can be applied to estimate the service life of any failure-critical structural components.

  11. Partitioning of resources: the evolutionary genetics of sexual conflict over resource acquisition and allocation.

    PubMed

    Zajitschek, F; Connallon, T

    2017-04-01

    Fitness depends on both the resources that individuals acquire and the allocation of those resources to traits that influence survival and reproduction. Optimal resource allocation differs between females and males as a consequence of their fundamentally different reproductive strategies. However, because most traits have a common genetic basis between the sexes, conflicting selection between the sexes over resource allocation can constrain the evolution of optimal allocation within each sex, and generate trade-offs for fitness between them (i.e. 'sexual antagonism' or 'intralocus sexual conflict'). The theory of resource acquisition and allocation provides an influential framework for linking genetic variation in acquisition and allocation to empirical evidence of trade-offs between distinct life-history traits. However, these models have not considered the emergence of trade-offs within the context of sexual dimorphism, where they are expected to be particularly common. Here, we extend acquisition-allocation theory and develop a quantitative genetic framework for predicting genetically based trade-offs between life-history traits within sexes and between female and male fitness. Our models demonstrate that empirically measurable evidence of sexually antagonistic fitness variation should depend upon three interacting factors that may vary between populations: (1) the genetic variances and between-sex covariances for resource acquisition and allocation traits, (2) condition-dependent expression of resource allocation traits and (3) sex differences in selection on the allocation of resource to different fitness components.

  12. High pressure electrides: a predictive chemical and physical theory.

    PubMed

    Miao, Mao-Sheng; Hoffmann, Roald

    2014-04-15

    Electrides, in which electrons occupy interstitial regions in the crystal and behave as anions, appear as new phases for many elements (and compounds) under high pressure. We propose a unified theory of high pressure electrides (HPEs) by treating electrons in the interstitial sites as filling the quantized orbitals of the interstitial space enclosed by the surrounding atom cores, generating what we call an interstitial quasi-atom, ISQ. With increasing pressure, the energies of the valence orbitals of atoms increase more significantly than the ISQ levels, due to repulsion, exclusion by the atom cores, effectively giving the valence electrons less room in which to move. At a high enough pressure, which depends on the element and its orbitals, the frontier atomic electron may become higher in energy than the ISQ, resulting in electron transfer to the interstitial space and the formation of an HPE. By using a He lattice model to compress (with minimal orbital interaction at moderate pressures between the surrounding He and the contained atoms or molecules) atoms and an interstitial space, we are able to semiquantitatively explain and predict the propensity of various elements to form HPEs. The slopes in energy of various orbitals with pressure (s > p > d) are essential for identifying trends across the entire Periodic Table. We predict that the elements forming HPEs under 500 GPa will be Li, Na (both already known to do so), Al, and, near the high end of this pressure range, Mg, Si, Tl, In, and Pb. Ferromagnetic electrides for the heavier alkali metals, suggested by Pickard and Needs, potentially compete with transformation to d-group metals.

  13. Supersymmetric axion grand unified theories and their predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Co, Raymond T.; D'Eramo, Francesco; Hall, Lawrence J.

    2016-10-01

    We introduce a class of unified supersymmetric axion theories with unified and Peccei-Quinn (PQ) symmetries broken by the same set of fields at a scale ˜2 ×1 016 GeV . A typical domain wall number of order 30 leads to an axion decay constant fa of order 1 015 GeV . Inflation generates a large saxion condensate, giving a reheat temperature TR below the QCD scale for supersymmetry breaking of order 1-10 TeV. Axion field oscillations commence in the saxion matter-dominated era near the QCD scale, and recent lattice computations of the temperature dependence of the axion mass in this era allow a controlled calculation of the axion dark matter abundance. The observed abundance can be successfully explained by an initial axion misalignment angle of order unity, θi˜1 . A highly correlated set of predictions is discussed for fa, TR, the supersymmetric Higgs mass parameter μ , the amount of dark radiation Δ Neff, the proton decay rate Γ (p →e+π0), isocurvature density perturbations and the B mode of the cosmic microwave background. The last two are particularly interesting when the energy scale of inflation is also of order 1 016 GeV .

  14. Allocation of computer ports within a terminal switching network: an application of queuing theory to gandalf port contenders

    SciTech Connect

    Vahle, M.O.

    1982-03-01

    Queuing theory is applied to the problem of assigning computer ports within a terminal switching network to maximize the likelihood of instant connect. A brief background of the network is included to focus on the statement of the problem.

  15. Applicability of the theory of thermodynamic similarity to predict the enthalpies of vaporization of aliphatic aldehydes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esina, Z. N.; Korchuganova, M. R.

    2015-06-01

    The theory of thermodynamic similarity is used to predict the enthalpies of vaporization of aliphatic aldehydes. The predicted data allow us to calculate the phase diagrams of liquid-vapor equilibrium in a binary water-aliphatic aldehyde system.

  16. Empirical Predictions from a General Theory of Signs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oller, John W., Jr.; Chen, Liang; Oller, Stephen D.; Pan, Ning

    2005-01-01

    General sign theory (GST) deals with how distinct sign systems are grounded, developed with increasing abstractness over time, and differentiated in efficacies in experience and discourse. GST has 3 components: The theory of true narrative representations (TNR theory) shows that TNRs are unique in being relatively well determined with respect to…

  17. Coupling carbon allocation with leaf and root phenology predicts tree-grass partitioning along a savanna rainfall gradient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Raupach, M.; Briggs, P.; Nieradzik, L.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L.; Trudinger, C. M.; Cleverly, J.

    2015-10-01

    The relative complexity of the mechanisms underlying savanna ecosystem dynamics, in comparison to other biomes such as temperate and tropical forests, challenges the representation of such dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. A realistic representation of processes governing carbon allocation and phenology for the two defining elements of savanna vegetation (namely trees and grasses) may be a key to understanding variations in tree/grass partitioning in time and space across the savanna biome worldwide. Here we present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation, applied to competing tree and grass plant functional types. The approach accounts for a temporal shift between assimilation and growth, mediated by a labile carbohydrate store. This is combined with a method to maximise long-term net primary production (NPP) by optimally partitioning plant growth between fine roots and (leaves + stem). The computational efficiency of the analytic method used here allows it to be uniquely and readily applied at regional scale, as required, for example, within the framework of a global biogeochemical model. We demonstrate the approach by encoding it in a new simple carbon/water cycle model that we call HAVANA (Hydrology and Vegetation-dynamics Algorithm for Northern Australia), coupled to the existing POP (Population Orders Physiology) model for tree demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. HAVANA-POP is calibrated using monthly remotely-sensed fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) and eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon and water fluxes at 5 tower sites along the Northern Australian Tropical Transect (NATT), which is characterized by large gradients in rainfall and wildfire disturbance. The calibrated model replicates observed gradients of fPAR, tree leaf area index, basal area and foliage projective cover along the NATT. The model behaviour emerges from complex feed-backs between the plant

  18. Coupling carbon allocation with leaf and root phenology predicts tree-grass partitioning along a savanna rainfall gradient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Raupach, M.; Briggs, P.; Nieradzik, L.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L.; Trudinger, C. M.; Cleverly, J.

    2016-02-01

    The relative complexity of the mechanisms underlying savanna ecosystem dynamics, in comparison to other biomes such as temperate and tropical forests, challenges the representation of such dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. A realistic representation of processes governing carbon allocation and phenology for the two defining elements of savanna vegetation (namely trees and grasses) may be a key to understanding variations in tree-grass partitioning in time and space across the savanna biome worldwide. Here we present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation, applied to competing tree and grass plant functional types. The approach accounts for a temporal shift between assimilation and growth, mediated by a labile carbohydrate store. This is combined with a method to maximize long-term net primary production (NPP) by optimally partitioning plant growth between fine roots and (leaves + stem). The computational efficiency of the analytic method used here allows it to be uniquely and readily applied at regional scale, as required, for example, within the framework of a global biogeochemical model.We demonstrate the approach by encoding it in a new simple carbon-water cycle model that we call HAVANA (Hydrology and Vegetation-dynamics Algorithm for Northern Australia), coupled to the existing POP (Population Orders Physiology) model for tree demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. HAVANA-POP is calibrated using monthly remotely sensed fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) and eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon and water fluxes at five tower sites along the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT), which is characterized by large gradients in rainfall and wildfire disturbance. The calibrated model replicates observed gradients of fPAR, tree leaf area index, basal area, and foliage projective cover along the NATT. The model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant

  19. But what about the Empress of Racnoss? The allocation of attention to spiders and Doctor Who in a visual search task is predicted by fear and expertise.

    PubMed

    Purkis, Helena M; Lester, Kathryn J; Field, Andy P

    2011-12-01

    If there is a spider in the room, then the spider phobic in your group is most likely to point it out to you. This phenomenon is believed to arise because our attentional systems are hardwired to attend to threat in our environment, and, to a spider phobic, spiders are threatening. However, an alternative explanation is simply that attention is quickly drawn to the stimulus of most personal relevance in the environment. Our research examined whether positive stimuli with no biological or evolutionary relevance could be allocated preferential attention. We compared attention to pictures of spiders with pictures from the TV program Doctor Who, for people who varied in both their love of Doctor Who and their fear of spiders. We found a double dissociation: interference from spider and Doctor-Who-related images in a visual search task was predicted by spider fear and Doctor Who expertise, respectively. As such, allocation of attention reflected the personal relevance of the images rather than their threat content. The attentional system believed to have a causal role in anxiety disorders is therefore likely to be a general system that responds not to threat but to stimulus relevance; hence, nonevolutionary images, such as those from Doctor Who, captured attention as quickly as fear-relevant spider images. Where this leaves the Empress of Racnoss, we are unsure.

  20. Dynamic density functional theory for nucleation: Non-classical predictions of mesoscopic nucleation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duran-Olivencia, Miguel A.; Yatsyshin, Peter; Lutsko, James F.; Kalliadasis, Serafim

    2016-11-01

    Classical density functional theory (DFT) for fluids and its dynamic extension (DDFT) provide an appealing mean-field framework for describing equilibrium and dynamics of complex soft matter systems. For a long time, homogeneous nucleation was considered to be outside the limits of applicability of DDFT. However, our recently developed mesoscopic nucleation theory (MeNT) based on fluctuating hydrodynamics, reconciles the inherent randomness of the nucleation process with the deterministic nature of DDFT. It turns out that in the weak-noise limit, the most likely path (MLP) for nucleation to occur is determined by the DDFT equations. We present computations of MLPs for homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation in colloidal suspensions. For homogeneous nucleation, the MLP obtained is in excellent agreement with the reduced order-parameter description of MeNT, which predicts a multistage nucleation pathway. For heterogeneous nucleation, the presence of impurities in the fluid affects the MLP, but remarkably, the overall qualitative picture of homogeneous nucleation persists. Finally, we highlight the use of DDFT as a simulation tool, which is especially appealing as there are no known applications of MeNT to heterogeneous nucleation. We acknowledge financial support from the European Research Council via Advanced Grant No. 247031 and from EPSRC via Grants No. EP/L020564 and EP/L025159.

  1. SuMoToRI, an Ecophysiological Model to Predict Growth and Sulfur Allocation and Partitioning in Oilseed Rape (Brassica napus L.) Until the Onset of Pod Formation.

    PubMed

    Brunel-Muguet, Sophie; Mollier, Alain; Kauffmann, François; Avice, Jean-Christophe; Goudier, Damien; Sénécal, Emmanuelle; Etienne, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Sulfur (S) nutrition in rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) is a major concern for this high S-demanding crop, especially in the context of soil S oligotrophy. Therefore, predicting plant growth, S plant allocation (between the plant's compartments) and S pool partitioning (repartition of the mobile-S vs. non-mobile-S fractions) until the onset of reproductive phase could help in the diagnosis of S deficiencies during the early stages. For this purpose, a process-based model, SuMoToRI (Sulfur Model Toward Rapeseed Improvement), was developed up to the onset of pod formation. The key features rely on (i) the determination of the S requirements used for growth (structural and metabolic functions) through critical S dilution curves and (ii) the estimation of a mobile pool of S that is regenerated by daily S uptake and remobilization from senescing leaves. This study describes the functioning of the model and presents the model's calibration and evaluation. SuMoToRI was calibrated and evaluated with independent datasets from greenhouse experiments under contrasting S supply conditions. It is run with a small number of parameters with generic values, except in the case of the radiation use efficiency, which was shown to be modulated by S supply. The model gave satisfying predictions of the dynamics of growth, S allocation between compartments and S partitioning, such as the mobile-S fraction in the leaves, which is an indicator of the remobilization potential toward growing sinks. The mechanistic features of SuMoToRI provide a process-based framework that has enabled the description of the S remobilizing process in a species characterized by senescence during the vegetative phase. We believe that this model structure could be useful for modeling S dynamics in other arable crops that have similar senescence-related characteristics.

  2. SuMoToRI, an Ecophysiological Model to Predict Growth and Sulfur Allocation and Partitioning in Oilseed Rape (Brassica napus L.) Until the Onset of Pod Formation

    PubMed Central

    Brunel-Muguet, Sophie; Mollier, Alain; Kauffmann, François; Avice, Jean-Christophe; Goudier, Damien; Sénécal, Emmanuelle; Etienne, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Sulfur (S) nutrition in rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) is a major concern for this high S-demanding crop, especially in the context of soil S oligotrophy. Therefore, predicting plant growth, S plant allocation (between the plant’s compartments) and S pool partitioning (repartition of the mobile-S vs. non-mobile-S fractions) until the onset of reproductive phase could help in the diagnosis of S deficiencies during the early stages. For this purpose, a process-based model, SuMoToRI (Sulfur Model Toward Rapeseed Improvement), was developed up to the onset of pod formation. The key features rely on (i) the determination of the S requirements used for growth (structural and metabolic functions) through critical S dilution curves and (ii) the estimation of a mobile pool of S that is regenerated by daily S uptake and remobilization from senescing leaves. This study describes the functioning of the model and presents the model’s calibration and evaluation. SuMoToRI was calibrated and evaluated with independent datasets from greenhouse experiments under contrasting S supply conditions. It is run with a small number of parameters with generic values, except in the case of the radiation use efficiency, which was shown to be modulated by S supply. The model gave satisfying predictions of the dynamics of growth, S allocation between compartments and S partitioning, such as the mobile-S fraction in the leaves, which is an indicator of the remobilization potential toward growing sinks. The mechanistic features of SuMoToRI provide a process-based framework that has enabled the description of the S remobilizing process in a species characterized by senescence during the vegetative phase. We believe that this model structure could be useful for modeling S dynamics in other arable crops that have similar senescence-related characteristics. PMID:26635825

  3. Eye dominance in families predicted by the right shift theory.

    PubMed

    Annett, M

    1999-04-01

    The proportions of nonright-eyed children in families with 0, 1, or 2 nonright-eyed parents resemble those for nonright-handed children in the families of nonrighthanded parents. Both sets of proportions are consistent with the Annett right shift genetic model of human asymmetry. The suggestion that findings for eyedness in families are incompatible with genetic theories of handedness (Reiss & Reiss, 1997) is correct for the McManus theory but false for the Annett theory.

  4. The Utility of Situational Theory of Publics for Assessing Public Response to a Disaster Prediction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Major, Anne Marie

    1998-01-01

    Examines the utility of public-relations theory, specifically situational theory of publics, for assessing response to the New Madrid earthquake prediction. Finds that high personalized risk was associated with high constraint recognition regardless of belief in the prediction. Suggests development of more effective messages for communicating with…

  5. Comparison of the Modified Biot-Gassmann Theory and the Kuster-Toksoz Theory in Predicting Elastic Velocities of Sediments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, Myung W.

    2008-01-01

    Elastic velocities of water-saturated sandstones depend primarily on porosity, effective pressure, and the degree of consolidation. If the dry-frame moduli are known, from either measurements or theoretical calculations, the effect of pore water on velocities can be modeled using the Gassmann theory. Kuster and Toksoz developed a theory based on wave-scattering theory for a variety of inclusion shapes, which provides a means for calculating dry- or wet-frame moduli. In the Kuster-Toksoz theory, elastic wave velocities through different sediments can be predicted by using different aspect ratios of the sediment's pore space. Elastic velocities increase as the pore aspect ratio increases (larger pore aspect ratio describes a more spherical pore). On the basis of the velocity ratio, which is assumed to be a function of (1-0)n, and the Biot-Gassmann theory, Lee developed a semi-empirical equation for predicting elastic velocities, which is referred to as the modified Biot-Gassmann theory of Lee. In this formulation, the exponent n, which depends on the effective pressure and the degree of consolidation, controls elastic velocities; as n increases, elastic velocities decrease. Computationally, the role of exponent n in the modified Biot-Gassmann theory by Lee is similar to the role of pore aspect ratios in the Kuster-Toksoz theory. For consolidated sediments, either theory predicts accurate velocities. However, for unconsolidated sediments, the modified Biot-Gassmann theory by Lee performs better than the Kuster-Toksoz theory, particularly in predicting S-wave velocities.

  6. Experimental evaluation of a flat wake theory for predicting rotor inflow-wake velocities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, John C.

    1992-01-01

    The theory for predicting helicopter inflow-wake velocities called flat wake theory was correlated with several sets of experimental data. The theory was developed by V. E. Baskin of the USSR, and a computer code known as DOWN was developed at Princeton University to implement the theory. The theory treats the wake geometry as rigid without interaction between induced velocities and wake structure. The wake structure is assumed to be a flat sheet of vorticity composed of trailing elements whose strength depends on the azimuthal and radial distributions of circulation on a rotor blade. The code predicts the three orthogonal components of flow velocity in the field surrounding the rotor. The predictions can be utilized in rotor performance and helicopter real-time flight-path simulation. The predictive capability of the coded version of flat wake theory provides vertical inflow patterns similar to experimental patterns.

  7. Implicit Theories of Intelligence Predict Achievement across an Adolescent Transition: A Longitudinal Study and an Intervention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackwell, Lisa S.; Trzesniewski, Kali H.; Dweck, Carol Sorich

    2007-01-01

    Two studies explored the role of implicit theories of intelligence in adolescents' mathematics achievement. In Study 1 with 373 7th graders, the belief that intelligence is malleable (incremental theory) predicted an upward trajectory in grades over the two years of junior high school, while a belief that intelligence is fixed (entity theory)…

  8. Theory of Mind Predicts Severity Level in Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoogenhout, Michelle; Malcolm-Smith, Susan

    2017-01-01

    We investigated whether theory of mind skills can indicate autism spectrum disorder severity. In all, 62 children with autism spectrum disorder completed a developmentally sensitive theory of mind battery. We used intelligence quotient, "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed.) diagnosis and level of support…

  9. Testing Theories of Recognition Memory by Predicting Performance Across Paradigms

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, David G.; Duncan, Matthew J. J.

    2004-01-01

    Signal-detection theory (SDT) accounts of recognition judgments depend on the assumption that recognition decisions result from a single familiarity-based process. However, fits of a hybrid SDT model, called dual-process theory (DPT), have provided evidence for the existence of a second, recollection-based process. In 2 experiments, the authors…

  10. Atypical cerebral dominance: predictions and tests of the right shift theory.

    PubMed

    Annett, M; Alexander, M P

    1996-12-01

    Alexander and Annett (Brain and Language, in press) described new cases of atypical cerebral specialization, and suggested that these observations and others in the literature could be explained by the right shift (RS) theory. The theory generates specific predictions as to the prevalence of different patterns of cerebral dominance and their distribution among right-handers and left-handers. Predictions differ between strict and generous criteria of sinistrality, as between left writers and non-right-handers. Tests of the predictions against reports in the literature reveal good fits for most data. New studies will test the RS theory if their design permits examination of the present predictions.

  11. Short-term prediction of wind power using EMD and chaotic theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Xueli; Jiang, Dongxiang; Zhao, Minghao; Liu, Chao

    2012-02-01

    Due to the strong non-linear, complexity and non-stationary characteristics of wind farm power, a hybrid prediction model with empirical mode decomposition (EMD), chaotic theory, and grey theory is constructed. The EMD is used to decompose the wind farm power into several intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. The grey forecasting model is used to predict the residual component. For the IMF components, identify their characteristics, if it is chaotic time series use largest Lyapunov exponent prediction method to predict. If not, use grey forecasting model to predict. Prediction results of residual component and all IMF components are aggregated to produce the ultimate predicted result for wind farm power. The ultimate predicted result shows that the proposed method has good prediction accuracy, can be used for short-term prediction of wind farm power.

  12. Group-regularized individual prediction: theory and application to pain.

    PubMed

    Lindquist, Martin A; Krishnan, Anjali; López-Solà, Marina; Jepma, Marieke; Woo, Choong-Wan; Koban, Leonie; Roy, Mathieu; Atlas, Lauren Y; Schmidt, Liane; Chang, Luke J; Reynolds Losin, Elizabeth A; Eisenbarth, Hedwig; Ashar, Yoni K; Delk, Elizabeth; Wager, Tor D

    2017-01-15

    Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) has become an important tool for identifying brain representations of psychological processes and clinical outcomes using fMRI and related methods. Such methods can be used to predict or 'decode' psychological states in individual subjects. Single-subject MVPA approaches, however, are limited by the amount and quality of individual-subject data. In spite of higher spatial resolution, predictive accuracy from single-subject data often does not exceed what can be accomplished using coarser, group-level maps, because single-subject patterns are trained on limited amounts of often-noisy data. Here, we present a method that combines population-level priors, in the form of biomarker patterns developed on prior samples, with single-subject MVPA maps to improve single-subject prediction. Theoretical results and simulations motivate a weighting based on the relative variances of biomarker-based prediction-based on population-level predictive maps from prior groups-and individual-subject, cross-validated prediction. Empirical results predicting pain using brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis (single-trial prediction) across 6 studies (N=180 participants) confirm the theoretical predictions. Regularization based on a population-level biomarker-in this case, the Neurologic Pain Signature (NPS)-improved single-subject prediction accuracy compared with idiographic maps based on the individuals' data alone. The regularization scheme that we propose, which we term group-regularized individual prediction (GRIP), can be applied broadly to within-person MVPA-based prediction. We also show how GRIP can be used to evaluate data quality and provide benchmarks for the appropriateness of population-level maps like the NPS for a given individual or study.

  13. Implicit theories about willpower predict the activation of a rest goal following self-control exertion.

    PubMed

    Job, Veronika; Bernecker, Katharina; Miketta, Stefanie; Friese, Malte

    2015-10-01

    Past research indicates that peoples' implicit theories about the nature of willpower moderate the ego-depletion effect. Only people who believe or were led to believe that willpower is a limited resource (limited-resource theory) showed lower self-control performance after an initial demanding task. As of yet, the underlying processes explaining this moderating effect by theories about willpower remain unknown. Here, we propose that the exertion of self-control activates the goal to preserve and replenish mental resources (rest goal) in people with a limited-resource theory. Five studies tested this hypothesis. In Study 1, individual differences in implicit theories about willpower predicted increased accessibility of a rest goal after self-control exertion. Furthermore, measured (Study 2) and manipulated (Study 3) willpower theories predicted an increased preference for rest-conducive objects. Finally, Studies 4 and 5 provide evidence that theories about willpower predict actual resting behavior: In Study 4, participants who held a limited-resource theory took a longer break following self-control exertion than participants with a nonlimited-resource theory. Longer resting time predicted decreased rest goal accessibility afterward. In Study 5, participants with an induced limited-resource theory sat longer on chairs in an ostensible product-testing task when they had engaged in a task requiring self-control beforehand. This research provides consistent support for a motivational shift toward rest after self-control exertion in people holding a limited-resource theory about willpower.

  14. Female sperm use and storage between fertilization events drive sperm competition and male ejaculate allocation.

    PubMed

    Requena, Gustavo S; Alonzo, Suzanne H

    2014-12-01

    Sperm competition theory has traditionally focused on how male allocation responds to female promiscuity, when males compete to fertilize a single clutch of eggs. Here, we develop a model to ask how female sperm use and storage across consecutive reproductive events affect male ejaculate allocation and patterns of mating and paternity. In our model, sperm use (a single parameter under female control) is the main determinant of sperm competition, which alters the effect of female promiscuity on male success and, ultimately, male reproductive allocation. Our theory reproduces the general pattern predicted by existing theory that increased sperm competition favors increased allocation to ejaculates. However, our model predicts a negative correlation between male ejaculate allocation and female promiscuity, challenging the generality of a prevailing expectation of sperm competition theory. Early models assumed that the energetic costs of precopulatory competition and the level of sperm competition are both determined by female promiscuity, which leads to an assumed covariation between these two processes. By modeling precopulatory costs and sperm competition independently, our theoretical framework allows us to examine how male allocation should respond independently to variation in sperm competition and energetic trade-offs in mating systems that have been overlooked in the past.

  15. Experimental Study on Elliott Wave Theory for Handoff Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vishvaksenan, K. S.; Mithra, K.; Kalidoss, R.; Karthipan, R.

    2016-07-01

    The main objective for the next generation wireless network is the offer of a high data rate when the user is on the move. The key element that offers continuous connectivity is the handoff. In this paper, we propose a handoff prediction model, which can predict handoff behavior of the user well in advance and reduce the latency in the handoff operation. The prediction model is validated with real life scenario both for the pedestrian user and the vehicle user, traveling at a speed of 80km/h. The experimental result verifies the capability of the proposed algorithm to predict the future sample with accuracy and minimum latency. Simulation results demonstrate the proposed system outperforming the existing system compared to the probability of the handoff detection and minimizing the false alarm probability. There is also the fact of the proposed algorithm not requiring any additional hardware for predicting the mobility of the user.

  16. Extended Aging Theories for Predictions of Safe Operational Life of Critical Airborne Structural Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Chen, Tony

    2006-01-01

    The previously developed Ko closed-form aging theory has been reformulated into a more compact mathematical form for easier application. A new equivalent loading theory and empirical loading theories have also been developed and incorporated into the revised Ko aging theory for the prediction of a safe operational life of airborne failure-critical structural components. The new set of aging and loading theories were applied to predict the safe number of flights for the B-52B aircraft to carry a launch vehicle, the structural life of critical components consumed by load excursion to proof load value, and the ground-sitting life of B-52B pylon failure-critical structural components. A special life prediction method was developed for the preflight predictions of operational life of failure-critical structural components of the B-52H pylon system, for which no flight data are available.

  17. Dynamically Allocated Hub in Task-Evoked Network Predicts the Vulnerable Prefrontal Locus for Contextual Memory Retrieval in Macaques.

    PubMed

    Osada, Takahiro; Adachi, Yusuke; Miyamoto, Kentaro; Jimura, Koji; Setsuie, Rieko; Miyashita, Yasushi

    2015-06-01

    Neuroimaging and neurophysiology have revealed that multiple areas in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) are activated in a specific memory task, but severity of impairment after PFC lesions is largely different depending on which activated area is damaged. The critical relationship between lesion sites and impairments has not yet been given a clear mechanistic explanation. Although recent works proposed that a whole-brain network contains hubs that play integrative roles in cortical information processing, this framework relying on an anatomy-based structural network cannot account for the vulnerable locus for a specific task, lesioning of which would bring impairment. Here, we hypothesized that (i) activated PFC areas dynamically form an ordered network centered at a task-specific "functional hub" and (ii) the lesion-effective site corresponds to the "functional hub," but not to a task-invariant "structural hub." To test these hypotheses, we conducted functional magnetic resonance imaging experiments in macaques performing a temporal contextual memory task. We found that the activated areas formed a hierarchical hub-centric network based on task-evoked directed connectivity, differently from the anatomical network reflecting axonal projection patterns. Using a novel simulated-lesion method based on support vector machine, we estimated severity of impairment after lesioning of each area, which accorded well with a known dissociation in contextual memory impairment in macaques (impairment after lesioning in area 9/46d, but not in area 8Ad). The predicted severity of impairment was proportional to the network "hubness" of the virtually lesioned area in the task-evoked directed connectivity network, rather than in the anatomical network known from tracer studies. Our results suggest that PFC areas dynamically and cooperatively shape a functional hub-centric network to reallocate the lesion-effective site depending on the cognitive processes, apart from static anatomical

  18. Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents.

    PubMed

    Altgassen, Mareike; Vetter, Nora C; Phillips, Louise H; Akgün, Canan; Kliegel, Matthias

    2014-11-01

    Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether theory of mind and executive control processes (specifically updating, switching, and inhibition) predict prospective memory development across adolescence. In total, 42 adolescents and 41 young adults participated in this study. Young adults outperformed adolescents on tasks of prospective memory, theory of mind, and executive functions. Switching and theory of mind predicted prospective memory performance in adolescents.

  19. Dynamically Allocated Hub in Task-Evoked Network Predicts the Vulnerable Prefrontal Locus for Contextual Memory Retrieval in Macaques

    PubMed Central

    Osada, Takahiro; Jimura, Koji; Setsuie, Rieko; Miyashita, Yasushi

    2015-01-01

    Neuroimaging and neurophysiology have revealed that multiple areas in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) are activated in a specific memory task, but severity of impairment after PFC lesions is largely different depending on which activated area is damaged. The critical relationship between lesion sites and impairments has not yet been given a clear mechanistic explanation. Although recent works proposed that a whole-brain network contains hubs that play integrative roles in cortical information processing, this framework relying on an anatomy-based structural network cannot account for the vulnerable locus for a specific task, lesioning of which would bring impairment. Here, we hypothesized that (i) activated PFC areas dynamically form an ordered network centered at a task-specific “functional hub” and (ii) the lesion-effective site corresponds to the “functional hub,” but not to a task-invariant “structural hub.” To test these hypotheses, we conducted functional magnetic resonance imaging experiments in macaques performing a temporal contextual memory task. We found that the activated areas formed a hierarchical hub-centric network based on task-evoked directed connectivity, differently from the anatomical network reflecting axonal projection patterns. Using a novel simulated-lesion method based on support vector machine, we estimated severity of impairment after lesioning of each area, which accorded well with a known dissociation in contextual memory impairment in macaques (impairment after lesioning in area 9/46d, but not in area 8Ad). The predicted severity of impairment was proportional to the network “hubness” of the virtually lesioned area in the task-evoked directed connectivity network, rather than in the anatomical network known from tracer studies. Our results suggest that PFC areas dynamically and cooperatively shape a functional hub-centric network to reallocate the lesion-effective site depending on the cognitive processes, apart from

  20. Sex differences in cognitive ageing: testing predictions derived from life-history theory in a dioecious nematode.

    PubMed

    Zwoinska, Martyna K; Kolm, Niclas; Maklakov, Alexei A

    2013-12-01

    Life-history theory maintains that organisms allocate limited resources to different traits to maximize fitness. Learning ability and memory are costly and known to trade-off with longevity in invertebrates. However, since the relationship between longevity and fitness often differs between the sexes, it is likely that sexes will differentially resolve the trade-off between learning and longevity. We used an established associative learning paradigm in the dioecious nematode Caenorhabditis remanei, which is sexually dimorphic for lifespan, to study age-related learning ability in males and females. In particular, we tested the hypothesis that females (the shorter-lived sex) show higher learning ability than males early in life but senesce faster. Indeed, young females outperformed young males in learning a novel association between an odour (butanone) and food (bacteria). However, while learning ability and offspring production declined rapidly with age in females, males maintained high levels of these traits until mid-age. These results not only demonstrate sexual dimorphism in age-related learning ability but also suggest that it conforms to predictions derived from the life-history theory.

  1. Observant, Nonaggressive Temperament Predicts Theory-of-Mind Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wellman, Henry M.; Lane, Jonathan D.; LaBounty, Jennifer; Olson, Sheryl L.

    2011-01-01

    Temperament dimensions influence children's approach to and participation in social interactive experiences which reflect and impact children's social understandings. Therefore, temperament differences might substantially impact theory-of-mind development in early childhood. Using longitudinal data, we report that certain early temperament…

  2. Introducing New Priority Setting and Resource Allocation Processes in a Canadian Healthcare Organization: A Case Study Analysis Informed by Multiple Streams Theory

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Neale; Mitton, Craig; Dowling, Laura; Hiltz, Mary-Ann; Campbell, Matthew; Gujar, Shashi Ashok

    2016-01-01

    Background: In this article, we analyze one case instance of how proposals for change to the priority setting and resource allocation (PSRA) processes at a Canadian healthcare institution reached the decision agenda of the organization’s senior leadership. We adopt key concepts from an established policy studies framework – Kingdon’s multiple streams theory – to inform our analysis. Methods: Twenty-six individual interviews were conducted at the IWK Health Centre in Halifax, NS, Canada. Participants were asked to reflect upon the reasons leading up to the implementation of a formal priority setting process – Program Budgeting and Marginal Analysis (PBMA) – in the 2012/2013 fiscal year. Responses were analyzed qualitatively using Kingdon’s model as a template. Results: The introduction of PBMA can be understood as the opening of a policy window. A problem stream – defined as lack of broad engagement and information sharing across service lines in past practice – converged with a known policy solution, PBMA, which addressed the identified problems and was perceived as easy to use and with an evidence-base from past applications across Canada and elsewhere. Conditions in the political realm allowed for this intervention to proceed, but also constrained its potential outcomes. Conclusion: Understanding in a theoretically-informed way how change occurs in healthcare management practices can provide useful lessons to researchers and decision-makers whose aim is to help health systems achieve the most effective use of available financial resources PMID:26673646

  3. Executive functioning predicts reading, mathematics, and theory of mind during the elementary years.

    PubMed

    Cantin, Rachelle H; Gnaedinger, Emily K; Gallaway, Kristin C; Hesson-McInnis, Matthew S; Hund, Alycia M

    2016-06-01

    The goal of this study was to specify how executive functioning components predict reading, mathematics, and theory of mind performance during the elementary years. A sample of 93 7- to 10-year-old children completed measures of working memory, inhibition, flexibility, reading, mathematics, and theory of mind. Path analysis revealed that all three executive functioning components (working memory, inhibition, and flexibility) mediated age differences in reading comprehension, whereas age predicted mathematics and theory of mind directly. In addition, reading mediated the influence of executive functioning components on mathematics and theory of mind, except that flexibility also predicted mathematics directly. These findings provide important details about the development of executive functioning, reading, mathematics, and theory of mind during the elementary years.

  4. Predicting performance expectations from affective impressions: linking affect control theory and status characteristics theory.

    PubMed

    Dippong, Joseph; Kalkhoff, Will

    2015-03-01

    Affect control theory (ACT) and status characteristics theory (SCT) offer separate and distinct explanations for how individuals interpret and process status- and power-relevant information about interaction partners. Existing research within affect control theory offers evidence that status and power are related to the affective impressions that individuals form of others along the dimensions of evaluation and potency, respectively. Alternately, status characteristics theory suggests that status and power influence interaction through the mediating cognitive construct of performance expectations. Although both theories have amassed an impressive amount of empirical support, research has yet to articulate theoretical and empirical connections between affective impressions and performance expectations. The purpose of our study is to address this gap. Elaborating a link between ACT and SCT in terms of their central concepts can serve as a stepping stone to improving the explanatory capacity of both theories, while providing a potential bridge by which they can be employed jointly.

  5. The Acoustic Analogy and Alternative Theories for Jet Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Philip J.; Farassat, F.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes several methods for the prediction of jet noise. All but one of the noise prediction schemes are based on Lighthill's or Lilley's acoustic analogy while the other is the jet noise generation model recently proposed by Tam and Auriault. In all the approaches some assumptions must be made concerning the statistical properties of the turbulent sources. In each case the characteristic scales of the turbulence are obtained from a solution of the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes equation using a k - epsilon turbulence model. It is shown that, for the same level of empiricism, Tam and Auriault's model yields better agreement with experimental noise measurements than the acoustic analogy. It is then shown that this result is not because of some fundamental flaw in the acoustic analogy approach: but, is associated with the assumptions made in the approximation of the turbulent source statistics. If consistent assumptions are made, both the acoustic analogy and Tam and Auriault's model yield identical noise predictions. The paper concludes with a proposal for an acoustic analogy that provides a clearer identification of the equivalent source mechanisms and a discussion of noise prediction issues that remain to be resolved.

  6. Acoustic Analogy and Alternative Theories for Jet Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Philip J.; Farassat, F.

    2002-01-01

    Several methods for the prediction of jet noise are described. All but one of the noise prediction schemes are based on Lighthill's or Lilley's acoustic analogy, whereas the other is the jet noise generation model recently proposed by Tam and Auriault. In all of the approaches, some assumptions must be made concerning the statistical properties of the turbulent sources. In each case the characteristic scales of the turbulence are obtained from a solution of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equation using a kappa-sigma turbulence model. It is shown that, for the same level of empiricism, Tam and Auriault's model yields better agreement with experimental noise measurements than the acoustic analogy. It is then shown that this result is not because of some fundamental flaw in the acoustic analogy approach, but instead is associated with the assumptions made in the approximation of the turbulent source statistics. If consistent assumptions are made, both the acoustic analogy and Tam and Auriault's model yield identical noise predictions. In conclusion, a proposal is presented for an acoustic analogy that provides a clearer identification of the equivalent source mechanisms, as is a discussion of noise prediction issues that remain to be resolved.

  7. The Acoustic Analogy and Alternative Theories for Jet Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Philip J.; Farassat, F.; Morris, Philip J.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes several methods for the prediction of jet noise. All but one of the noise prediction schemes are based on Lighthill's or Lilley's acoustic analogy while the other is the jet noise generation model recently proposed by Tam and Auriault. In all the approaches some assumptions must be made concerning the statistical properties of the turbulent sources. In each case the characteristic scales of the turbulence are obtained from a solution of the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes equation using a k-epsilon turbulence model. It is shown that, for the same level of empiricism, Tam and Auriault's model yields better agreement with experimental noise measurements than the acoustic analogy. It is then shown that this result is not because of some fundamental flaw in the acoustic analogy approach: but, is associated with the assumptions made in the approximation of the turbulent source statistics. If consistent assumptions are made, both the acoustic analogy and Tam and Auriault's model yield identical noise predictions. The paper concludes with a proposal for an acoustic analogy that provides a clearer identification of the equivalent source mechanisms and a discussion of noise prediction issues that remain to be resolved.

  8. Phonology and Handedness in Primary School: Predictions of the Right Shift Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smythe, Pamela; Annett, Marian

    2006-01-01

    Background: The right shift (RS) theory of handedness suggests that poor phonology may occur in the general population as a risk associated with absence of an agent of left cerebral speech, the hypothesised RS + gene. The theory predicts that poor phonology is associated with reduced bias to right-handedness. Methods: A representative cohort of…

  9. Attachment Theory and Theory of Planned Behavior: An Integrative Model Predicting Underage Drinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lac, Andrew; Crano, William D.; Berger, Dale E.; Alvaro, Eusebio M.

    2013-01-01

    Research indicates that peer and maternal bonds play important but sometimes contrasting roles in the outcomes of children. Less is known about attachment bonds to these 2 reference groups in young adults. Using a sample of 351 participants (18 to 20 years of age), the research integrated two theoretical traditions: attachment theory and theory of…

  10. Evaluation of muscle force predictions using optimization theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziya Arslan, Yunus; Kaya, Motoshi; Herzog, Walter

    2013-02-01

    Prediction of muscle forces using optimization based models of muscle coordination is an active research area in biomechanics. Theoretical calculation of individual muscle forces depends on solving the redundancy problem. In a musculoskeletal model, redundancy arises since the number of muscles in the model exceeds the number of degrees-of-freedom present. One of the widely used methods to solve this problem is to formulate a physiologically sound cost function and optimize this function subject to mechanical equality and inequality constraint equations. In this study, force predictions obtained from different optimization-based models were compared with those obtained from experimentally measured individual muscle forces recorded during a variety of movement conditions. Advantages and limitations of the tested models were discussed.

  11. Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewal theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

    1989-01-01

    A method to estimate the frequency of transmission overhauls is presented. This method is based on the two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life. A second method is presented to estimate the number of replacement components needed to support the transmission overhaul pattern. The second method is based on renewal theory. Confidence statistics are applied with both methods to improve the statistical estimate of sample behavior. A transmission example is also presented to illustrate the use of the methods. Transmission overhaul frequency and component replacement calculations are included in the example.

  12. Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewel theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

    1989-01-01

    A method to estimate the frequency of transmission overhauls is presented. This method is based on the two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life. A second method is presented to estimate the number of replacement components needed to support the transmission overhaul pattern. The second method is based on renewal theory. Confidence statistics are applied with both methods to improve the statistical estimate of sample behavior. A transmission example is also presented to illustrate the use of the methods. Transmission overhaul frequency and component replacement calculations are included in the example.

  13. Routes to Reading and Spelling: Testing the Predictions of Dual-Route Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sheriston, Lee; Critten, Sarah; Jones, Emily

    2016-01-01

    Dual-route theory, which emphasizes the importance of lexical and nonlexical routes, makes specific predictions about the kinds of strategies that young students might adopt when attempting to correctly read and spell regular and irregular words. The current study tests these predictions by assessing strategy choice on regular, irregular, and…

  14. Predicting moral behavior in physical education classes: an application of the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Tsorbatzoudis, Haralambos; Emmanouilidou, Maria

    2005-06-01

    This study aimed to examine the potential of the Theory of Planned Behavior to predict moral behavior in primary school physical education classes. Primary school children (N=611) completed a questionnaire including the Theory of Planned Behavior variables. Also, 21 teachers filled in an adapted version of Horrocks' Prosocial Play Behavior Inventory which assesses five moral behavior facets. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that attitudes toward moral behavior and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of intention towards moral behavior (54%). Intention and perceived behavioral control predicted teacher-reported moral behavior (41%). The present results indicated that the theory provides a valuable framework for study of primary school children's moral behavior.

  15. Shear Strength Prediction By Modified Plasticity Theory For SFRC Beams

    SciTech Connect

    Colajanni, Piero; Recupero, Antonino; Spinella, Nino

    2008-07-08

    the plastic Crack Sliding Model (CSM) is extended for derivation of a physical model for the prediction of ultimate shear strength of SFRC beams, by assuming that the critical cracks is modeled by a yield lines. To this aim, the CSM is improved in order to take into account the strength increases due to the arch effect for deep beam. Then, the effectiveness factors for the concrete under biaxial stress are calibrated for fibrous concrete. The proposed model, able to provide the shear strength and the position of the critical cracks, is validate by a large set of test results collected in literature.

  16. Infant shy temperament predicts preschoolers Theory of Mind.

    PubMed

    Mink, Daniela; Henning, Anne; Aschersleben, Gisa

    2014-02-01

    The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the relation between infant temperament at 18 months and early Theory of Mind (ToM) abilities at 3 years of age. Temperament was assessed with the Early Childhood Behavior Questionnaire (ECBQ) and ToM by assessing children's understanding of divergent desires and beliefs, and of knowledge access. Our results are in line with a social-emotional reactivity perspective postulating more sophisticated ToM abilities for children with less reactive more observant temperament. Children with shy temperament at 18 months and at 3 years were better in reasoning about others' mental states at age 3. Language, siblings and parental education had no effect on ToM. Findings indicate that temperament is related to ToM earlier in development than previously found, and that this relation is thus not unique to false-belief understanding.

  17. Predicting neutron star properties based on chiral effective field theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laduke, Alison; Sammarruca, Francesca

    2016-09-01

    The energy per nucleon as a function of density, known as the nuclear equation of state, is the crucial input in the structure equations of neutron stars and thus establishes the connection between nuclear physics and compact astrophysical objects. More precisely, the pressure which supports the star against gravitational collapse is mostly determined by the nature of the equation of state of highly neutron-rich matter. In this contribution, we will report on our work in progress to calculate neutron star masses and radii. The equation of state is obtained microscopically from Brueckner-Hartree-Fock calculations based on state-of-the-art nuclear forces which have been developed within the framework of chiral effective field theory. The latter has become popular in recent years as a fundamental and systematic approach firmly connected to low-energy quantum chromodynamics. Supported by the Hill Undergraduate Fellowship and the U.S. Department of Energy.

  18. Glass transition in fullerenes: mode-coupling theory predictions.

    PubMed

    Greenall, M J; Voigtmann, Th

    2006-11-21

    We report idealized mode-coupling theory results for the glass transition of ensembles of model fullerenes interacting via phenomenological two-body potentials. Transition lines are found for C60, C70, and C96 in the temperature-density plane. We argue that the observed glass transition behavior is indicative of kinetic arrest that is strongly driven by the interparticle attraction in addition to excluded-volume repulsion. In this respect, these systems differ from most standard glass-forming liquids. They feature arrest that occurs at lower densities and that is stronger than would be expected for repulsion-dominated hard-sphere-like or Lennard-Jones-type systems. The influence of attraction increases with increasing the number of carbon atoms per molecule. However, unrealistically large fullerenes would be needed to yield behavior reminiscent of recently investigated model colloids with strong short-ranged attraction (glass-glass transitions and logarithmic decay of time-correlation functions).

  19. Glass transition in fullerenes: Mode-coupling theory predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenall, M. J.; Voigtmann, Th.

    2006-11-01

    We report idealized mode-coupling theory results for the glass transition of ensembles of model fullerenes interacting via phenomenological two-body potentials. Transition lines are found for C60, C70, and C96 in the temperature-density plane. We argue that the observed glass transition behavior is indicative of kinetic arrest that is strongly driven by the interparticle attraction in addition to excluded-volume repulsion. In this respect, these systems differ from most standard glass-forming liquids. They feature arrest that occurs at lower densities and that is stronger than would be expected for repulsion-dominated hard-sphere-like or Lennard-Jones-type systems. The influence of attraction increases with increasing the number of carbon atoms per molecule. However, unrealistically large fullerenes would be needed to yield behavior reminiscent of recently investigated model colloids with strong short-ranged attraction (glass-glass transitions and logarithmic decay of time-correlation functions).

  20. Chimpanzee choice rates in competitive games match equilibrium game theory predictions.

    PubMed

    Martin, Christopher Flynn; Bhui, Rahul; Bossaerts, Peter; Matsuzawa, Tetsuro; Camerer, Colin

    2014-06-05

    The capacity for strategic thinking about the payoff-relevant actions of conspecifics is not well understood across species. We use game theory to make predictions about choices and temporal dynamics in three abstract competitive situations with chimpanzee participants. Frequencies of chimpanzee choices are extremely close to equilibrium (accurate-guessing) predictions, and shift as payoffs change, just as equilibrium theory predicts. The chimpanzee choices are also closer to the equilibrium prediction, and more responsive to past history and payoff changes, than two samples of human choices from experiments in which humans were also initially uninformed about opponent payoffs and could not communicate verbally. The results are consistent with a tentative interpretation of game theory as explaining evolved behavior, with the additional hypothesis that chimpanzees may retain or practice a specialized capacity to adjust strategy choice during competition to perform at least as well as, or better than, humans have.

  1. Predicting Infrared Spectra of Nerve Agents Using Density Functional Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.-P.; Wang, H.-T.; Zheng, W.-P.; Sun, C.; Bai, Y.; Guo, X.-D.; Sun, H.

    2016-09-01

    Vibration frequencies of four nerve agents and two simulators are calculated using B3LYP coupled with ten basis sets. To evaluate the accuracy of calculated spectra, root mean square error (RMSE) and weighted cross-correlation average (WCCA) are considered. The evaluation shows that B3LYP/6-311+g(d,p) performs best in predicting infrared spectra, and polarization functions are found to be more important than diffusion functions in spectra simulation. Moreover, B3LYP calculation underestimates frequencies related to the P atom. The WCCA metric derives 1.008 as a unique scaling factor for calculated frequencies. The results indicate that the WCCA metric can identify six agents based on calculated spectra.

  2. Grid cells and theta as oscillatory interference: theory and predictions.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Neil

    2008-01-01

    The oscillatory interference model [Burgess et al. (2007) Hippocampus 17:801-802] of grid cell firing is reviewed as an algorithmic level description of path integration and as an implementation level description of grid cells and their inputs. New analyses concern the relationships between the variables in the model and the theta rhythm, running speed, and the intrinsic firing frequencies of grid cells. New simulations concern the implementation of velocity-controlled oscillators (VCOs) with different preferred directions in different neurons. To summarize the model, the distance traveled along a specific direction is encoded by the phase of a VCO relative to a baseline frequency. Each VCO is an intrinsic membrane potential oscillation whose frequency increases from baseline as a result of depolarization by synaptic input from speed modulated head-direction cells. Grid cell firing is driven by the VCOs whose preferred directions match the current direction of motion. VCOs are phase-reset by location-specific input from place cells to prevent accumulation of error. The baseline frequency is identified with the local average of VCO frequencies, while EEG theta frequency is identified with the global average VCO frequency and comprises two components: the frequency at zero speed and a linear response to running speed. Quantitative predictions are given for the inter-relationships between a grid cell's intrinsic firing frequency and grid scale, the two components of theta frequency, and the running speed of the animal. Qualitative predictions are given for the properties of the VCOs, and the relationship between environmental novelty, the two components of theta, grid scale and place cell remapping.

  3. Dynamic Channel Allocation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-09-01

    7 1 . Fixed Channel Allocation (FCA) ........................................................7 2. Dynamic Channel ...19 7. CSMA/CD-Based Multiple Network Lines .....................................20 8. Hybrid Channel Allocation in Wireless Networks...28 1 . Channel Allocation

  4. Predicting interactions from mechanistic information: Can omic data validate theories?

    SciTech Connect

    Borgert, Christopher J.

    2007-09-01

    To address the most pressing and relevant issues for improving mixture risk assessment, researchers must first recognize that risk assessment is driven by both regulatory requirements and scientific research, and that regulatory concerns may expand beyond the purely scientific interests of researchers. Concepts of 'mode of action' and 'mechanism of action' are used in particular ways within the regulatory arena, depending on the specific assessment goals. The data requirements for delineating a mode of action and predicting interactive toxicity in mixtures are not well defined from a scientific standpoint due largely to inherent difficulties in testing certain underlying assumptions. Understanding the regulatory perspective on mechanistic concepts will be important for designing experiments that can be interpreted clearly and applied in risk assessments without undue reliance on extrapolation and assumption. In like fashion, regulators and risk assessors can be better equipped to apply mechanistic data if the concepts underlying mechanistic research and the limitations that must be placed on interpretation of mechanistic data are understood. This will be critically important for applying new technologies to risk assessment, such as functional genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics. It will be essential not only for risk assessors to become conversant with the language and concepts of mechanistic research, including new omic technologies, but also, for researchers to become more intimately familiar with the challenges and needs of risk assessment.

  5. Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

    PubMed

    Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

    2016-09-28

    Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

  6. Sex allocation promotes the stable co-occurrence of competitive species

    PubMed Central

    Kobayashi, Kazuya

    2017-01-01

    Biodiversity has long been a source of wonder and scientific curiosity. Theoretically, the co-occurrence of competitive species requires niche differentiation, and such differences are well known; however, the neutral theory, which assumes the equivalence of all individuals regardless of the species in a biological community, has successfully recreated observed patterns of biodiversity. In this research, the evolution of sex allocation is demonstrated to be the key to resolving why the neutral theory works well, despite the observed species differences. The sex allocation theory predicts that female-biased allocation evolves in species in declining density and that this allocation improves population growth, which should lead to an increase in density. In contrast, when the density increases, a less biased allocation evolves, which reduces the population growth rate and leads to decreased density. Thus, sex allocation provides a buffer against species differences in population growth. A model incorporating this mechanism demonstrates that hundreds of species can co-occur over 10,000 generations, even in homogeneous environments, and reproduces the observed patterns of biodiversity. This study reveals the importance of evolutionary processes within species for the sustainability of biodiversity. Integrating the entire biological process, from genes to community, will open a new era of ecology. PMID:28262844

  7. Sex allocation promotes the stable co-occurrence of competitive species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, Kazuya

    2017-03-01

    Biodiversity has long been a source of wonder and scientific curiosity. Theoretically, the co-occurrence of competitive species requires niche differentiation, and such differences are well known; however, the neutral theory, which assumes the equivalence of all individuals regardless of the species in a biological community, has successfully recreated observed patterns of biodiversity. In this research, the evolution of sex allocation is demonstrated to be the key to resolving why the neutral theory works well, despite the observed species differences. The sex allocation theory predicts that female-biased allocation evolves in species in declining density and that this allocation improves population growth, which should lead to an increase in density. In contrast, when the density increases, a less biased allocation evolves, which reduces the population growth rate and leads to decreased density. Thus, sex allocation provides a buffer against species differences in population growth. A model incorporating this mechanism demonstrates that hundreds of species can co-occur over 10,000 generations, even in homogeneous environments, and reproduces the observed patterns of biodiversity. This study reveals the importance of evolutionary processes within species for the sustainability of biodiversity. Integrating the entire biological process, from genes to community, will open a new era of ecology.

  8. Predicting Facebook users' online privacy protection: risk, trust, norm focus theory, and the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Saeri, Alexander K; Ogilvie, Claudette; La Macchia, Stephen T; Smith, Joanne R; Louis, Winnifred R

    2014-01-01

    The present research adopts an extended theory of the planned behavior model that included descriptive norms, risk, and trust to investigate online privacy protection in Facebook users. Facebook users (N = 119) completed a questionnaire assessing their attitude, subjective injunctive norm, subjective descriptive norm, perceived behavioral control, implicit perceived risk, trust of other Facebook users, and intentions toward protecting their privacy online. Behavior was measured indirectly 2 weeks after the study. The data show partial support for the theory of planned behavior and strong support for the independence of subjective injunctive and descriptive norms. Risk also uniquely predicted intentions over and above the theory of planned behavior, but there were no unique effects of trust on intentions, nor of risk or trust on behavior. Implications are discussed.

  9. Compositional changes upon compression of sodium azide predicted using density functional theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steele, Brad; Landerville, Aaron; Oleynik, Ivan

    2014-03-01

    The pressure induced phase transitions in sodium azide, which include a potential polymeric nitrogen phase transition, are investigated using evolutionary crystal structure prediction methods coupled with density functional theory calculations. Two new phases are predicted to be stable above 53 GPa that have an inequivalent ratio of sodium to nitrogen atoms as compared to sodium azide. The Raman spectrum is calculated from 0-100 GPa using these newly predicted structures, as well as the newly discovered I4/mcm phase of sodium azide. The predicted Raman spectrum is shown to give good agreement to experimental data above 30 GPa and below 15 GPa.

  10. Implicit theories of intelligence predict achievement across an adolescent transition: a longitudinal study and an intervention.

    PubMed

    Blackwell, Lisa S; Trzesniewski, Kali H; Dweck, Carol Sorich

    2007-01-01

    Two studies explored the role of implicit theories of intelligence in adolescents' mathematics achievement. In Study 1 with 373 7th graders, the belief that intelligence is malleable (incremental theory) predicted an upward trajectory in grades over the two years of junior high school, while a belief that intelligence is fixed (entity theory) predicted a flat trajectory. A mediational model including learning goals, positive beliefs about effort, and causal attributions and strategies was tested. In Study 2, an intervention teaching an incremental theory to 7th graders (N=48) promoted positive change in classroom motivation, compared with a control group (N=43). Simultaneously, students in the control group displayed a continuing downward trajectory in grades, while this decline was reversed for students in the experimental group.

  11. Predicting the singlet vector channel in a partially broken gauge-Higgs theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maas, A.; Törek, P.

    2017-01-01

    We study a toy version of a grand-unified theory on the lattice: An S U (3 ) gauge theory, which experiences a Brout-Englert-Higgs effect due to a single Higgs field in the fundamental representation. This yields a perturbative breaking pattern S U (3 )→S U (2 ). We investigate the singlet vector channel, finding a nondegenerate and massive ground state. This is in contradistinction to the perturbative prediction of three massless and five massive vector states, even though the correlation functions of the gauge bosons exhibit a weak-coupling behavior, being almost tree-level-like. However, a combination of perturbation theory with the Fröhlich-Morchio-Strocchi mechanism, and thus passing to gauge-invariant perturbation theory, allows one to predict the physical spectrum in this channel.

  12. Utility of the theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behavior for predicting Chinese adolescent smoking.

    PubMed

    Guo, Qian; Johnson, C Anderson; Unger, Jennifer B; Lee, Liming; Xie, Bin; Chou, Chih-Ping; Palmer, Paula H; Sun, Ping; Gallaher, Peggy; Pentz, MaryAnn

    2007-05-01

    One third of smokers worldwide live in China. Identifying predictors of smoking is important for prevention program development. This study explored whether the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) predict adolescent smoking in China. Data were obtained from 14,434 middle and high school students (48.6% boys, 51.4% girls) in seven geographically varied cities in China. TRA and TPB were tested by multilevel mediation modeling, and compared by multilevel analyses and likelihood ratio tests. Perceived behavioral control was tested as a main effect in TPB and a moderation effect in TRA. The mediation effects of smoking intention were supported in both models (p<0.001). TPB accounted for significantly more variance than TRA (p<0.001). Perceived behavioral control significantly interacted with attitudes and social norms in TRA (p<0.001). Therefore, TRA and TPB are applicable to China to predict adolescent smoking. TPB is superior to TRA for the prediction and TRA can better predict smoking among students with lower than higher perceived behavioral control.

  13. Predicting epistasis: an experimental test of metabolic control theory with bacterial transcription and translation.

    PubMed

    MacLean, R C

    2010-03-01

    Epistatic interactions between mutations are thought to play a crucial role in a number of evolutionary processes, including adaptation and sex. Evidence for epistasis is abundant, but tests of general theoretical models that can predict epistasis are lacking. In this study, I test the ability of metabolic control theory to predict epistasis using a novel experimental approach that combines phenotypic and genetic perturbations of enzymes involved in gene expression and protein synthesis in the bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa. These experiments provide experimental support for two key predictions of metabolic control theory: (i) epistasis between genes involved in the same pathway is antagonistic; (ii) epistasis becomes increasingly antagonistic as mutational severity increases. Metabolic control theory is a general theory that applies to any set of genes that are involved in the same linear processing chain, not just metabolic pathways, and I argue that this theory is likely to have important implications for predicting epistasis between functionally coupled genes, such as those involved in antibiotic resistance. Finally, this study highlights the fact that phenotypic manipulations of gene activity provide a powerful method for studying epistasis that complements existing genetic methods.

  14. Playing off the curve - testing quantitative predictions of skill acquisition theories in development of chess performance

    PubMed Central

    Gaschler, Robert; Progscha, Johanna; Smallbone, Kieran; Ram, Nilam; Bilalić, Merim

    2014-01-01

    Learning curves have been proposed as an adequate description of learning processes, no matter whether the processes manifest within minutes or across years. Different mechanisms underlying skill acquisition can lead to differences in the shape of learning curves. In the current study, we analyze the tournament performance data of 1383 chess players who begin competing at young age and play tournaments for at least 10 years. We analyze the performance development with the goal to test the adequacy of learning curves, and the skill acquisition theories they are based on, for describing and predicting expertise acquisition. On the one hand, we show that the skill acquisition theories implying a negative exponential learning curve do a better job in both describing early performance gains and predicting later trajectories of chess performance than those theories implying a power function learning curve. On the other hand, the learning curves of a large proportion of players show systematic qualitative deviations from the predictions of either type of skill acquisition theory. While skill acquisition theories predict larger performance gains in early years and smaller gains in later years, a substantial number of players begin to show substantial improvements with a delay of several years (and no improvement in the first years), deviations not fully accounted for by quantity of practice. The current work adds to the debate on how learning processes on a small time scale combine to large-scale changes. PMID:25202292

  15. Accuracy of critical-temperature sensitivity coefficients predicted by multilayered composite plate theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K.; Burton, Scott

    1992-01-01

    An assessment is made of the accuracy of the critical-temperature sensitivity coefficients of multilayered plates predicted by different modeling approaches, based on two-dimensional shear-deformation theories. The sensitivity coefficients considered measure the sensitivity of the critical temperatures to variations in different lamination and material parameters of the plate. The standard of comparison is taken to be the sensitivity coefficients obtained by the three-dimensional theory of thermoelasticity. Numerical studies are presented showing the effects of variation in the geometric and lamination parameters of the plate on the accuracy of both the sensitivity coefficients and the critical temperatures predicted by the different modeling approaches.

  16. Predicting adsorption isotherms using a two-dimensional statistical associating fluid theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Alejandro; Castro, Martin; McCabe, Clare; Gil-Villegas, Alejandro

    2007-02-01

    A molecular thermodynamics approach is developed in order to describe the adsorption of fluids on solid surfaces. The new theory is based on the statistical associating fluid theory for potentials of variable range [A. Gil-Villegas et al., J. Chem. Phys. 106, 4168 (1997)] and uses a quasi-two-dimensional approximation to describe the properties of adsorbed fluids. The theory is tested against Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations and excellent agreement with the theoretical predictions is achieved. Additionally the authors use the new approach to describe the adsorption isotherms for nitrogen and methane on dry activated carbon.

  17. Predicting adsorption isotherms using a two-dimensional statistical associating fluid theory.

    PubMed

    Martinez, Alejandro; Castro, Martin; McCabe, Clare; Gil-Villegas, Alejandro

    2007-02-21

    A molecular thermodynamics approach is developed in order to describe the adsorption of fluids on solid surfaces. The new theory is based on the statistical associating fluid theory for potentials of variable range [A. Gil-Villegas et al., J. Chem. Phys. 106, 4168 (1997)] and uses a quasi-two-dimensional approximation to describe the properties of adsorbed fluids. The theory is tested against Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations and excellent agreement with the theoretical predictions is achieved. Additionally the authors use the new approach to describe the adsorption isotherms for nitrogen and methane on dry activated carbon.

  18. Prediction of attendance at fitness center: a comparison between the theory of planned behavior, the social cognitive theory, and the physical activity maintenance theory.

    PubMed

    Jekauc, Darko; Völkle, Manuel; Wagner, Matthias O; Mess, Filip; Reiner, Miriam; Renner, Britta

    2015-01-01

    In the processes of physical activity (PA) maintenance specific predictors are effective, which differ from other stages of PA development. Recently, Physical Activity Maintenance Theory (PAMT) was specifically developed for prediction of PA maintenance. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictability of the future behavior by the PAMT and compare it with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Social Cognitive Theory (SCT). Participation rate in a fitness center was observed for 101 college students (53 female) aged between 19 and 32 years (M = 23.6; SD = 2.9) over 20 weeks using a magnetic card. In order to predict the pattern of participation TPB, SCT and PAMT were used. A latent class zero-inflated Poisson growth curve analysis identified two participation patterns: regular attenders and intermittent exercisers. SCT showed the highest predictive power followed by PAMT and TPB. Impeding aspects as life stress and barriers were the strongest predictors suggesting that overcoming barriers might be an important aspect for working out on a regular basis. Self-efficacy, perceived behavioral control, and social support could also significantly differentiate between the participation patterns.

  19. Response facilitation: implications for perceptual theory, psychotherapy, neurophysiology, and earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Medici, R G; Frey, A H; Frey, D

    1985-04-01

    There have been numerous naturalistic observations and anecdotal reports of abnormal animal behavior prior to earthquakes. Basic physiological and behavioral data have been brought together with geophysical data to develop a specific explanation to account for how animals could perceive and respond to precursors of impending earthquakes. The behavior predicted provides a reasonable approximation to the reported abnormal behaviors; that is, the behavior appears to be partly reflexive and partly operant. It can best be described as agitated stereotypic behavior. The explanation formulated has substantial implications for perceptual theory, psychotherapy, and neurophysiology, as well as for earthquake prediction. Testable predictions for biology, psychology, and geophysics can be derived from the explanation.

  20. Exploring the Combination of Dempster-Shafer Theory and Neural Network for Predicting Trust and Distrust.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xin; Wang, Ying; Sun, Hongbin

    2016-01-01

    In social media, trust and distrust among users are important factors in helping users make decisions, dissect information, and receive recommendations. However, the sparsity and imbalance of social relations bring great difficulties and challenges in predicting trust and distrust. Meanwhile, there are numerous inducing factors to determine trust and distrust relations. The relationship among inducing factors may be dependency, independence, and conflicting. Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network are effective and efficient strategies to deal with these difficulties and challenges. In this paper, we study trust and distrust prediction based on the combination of Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network. We firstly analyze the inducing factors about trust and distrust, namely, homophily, status theory, and emotion tendency. Then, we quantify inducing factors of trust and distrust, take these features as evidences, and construct evidence prototype as input nodes of multilayer neural network. Finally, we propose a framework of predicting trust and distrust which uses multilayer neural network to model the implementing process of Dempster-Shafer theory in different hidden layers, aiming to overcome the disadvantage of Dempster-Shafer theory without optimization method. Experimental results on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

  1. Using Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict Healthy Eating among Danish Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gronhoj, Alice; Bech-Larsen, Tino; Chan, Kara; Tsang, Lennon

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of the study was to apply the theory of planned behavior to predict Danish adolescents' behavioral intention for healthy eating. Design/methodology/approach: A cluster sample survey of 410 students aged 11 to 16 years studying in Grade 6 to Grade 10 was conducted in Denmark. Findings: Perceived behavioral control followed by…

  2. The Theory of Planned Behavior: Predicting Teachers' Intentions and Behavior during Fitness Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanec, Amanda D. Stewart

    2009-01-01

    The twofold purpose of this study was to develop and validate an instrument that assessed teachers' intentions, attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavior control to administer fitness tests effectively, and to determine how well the instrument could predict teachers' intentions and actual behavior based on Ajzen's (1985, 1991) theory of…

  3. Predicting Study Abroad Intentions Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schnusenberg, Oliver; de Jong, Pieter; Goel, Lakshmi

    2012-01-01

    The emphasis on study abroad programs is growing in the academic context as U.S. based universities seek to incorporate a global perspective in education. Using a model that has underpinnings in the theory of planned behavior (TPB), we predict students' intention to participate in short-term study abroad program. We use TPB to identify behavioral,…

  4. Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chao, Yu-Long

    2012-01-01

    Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

  5. Predicting College Students' Intention to Graduate: A Test of the Theory of Planned Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sutter, Nate; Paulson, Sharon

    2016-01-01

    The current study examined whether it is possible to increase college students' intention to earn a four-year degree with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Three research questions were examined: (1) Can the TPB predict traditional undergraduates' graduation intention? (2) Does graduation intention differ by traditional students' year of…

  6. Predicting Social Support for Grieving Persons: A Theory of Planned Behavior Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bath, Debra M.

    2009-01-01

    Research has consistently reported that social support from family, friends, and colleagues is an important factor in the bereaved person's ability to cope after the loss of a loved one. This study used a Theory of Planned Behavior framework to identify those factors that predict a person's intention to interact with, and support, a grieving…

  7. A Finite Element Theory for Predicting the Attenuation of Extended-Reacting Liners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, W. R.; Jones, M. G.

    2009-01-01

    A non-modal finite element theory for predicting the attenuation of an extended-reacting liner containing a porous facesheet and located in a no-flow duct is presented. The mathematical approach is to solve separate wave equations in the liner and duct airway and to couple these two solutions by invoking kinematic constraints at the facesheet that are consistent with a continuum theory of fluid motion. Given the liner intrinsic properties, a weak Galerkin finite element formulation with cubic polynomial basis functions is used as the basis for generating a discrete system of acoustic equations that are solved to obtain the coupled acoustic field. A state-of-the-art, asymmetric, parallel, sparse equation solver is implemented that allows tens of thousands of grid points to be analyzed. A grid refinement study is presented to show that the predicted attenuation converges. Excellent comparison of the numerically predicted attenuation to that of a mode theory (using a Haynes 25 metal foam liner) is used to validate the computational approach. Simulations are also presented for fifteen porous plate, extended-reacting liners. The construction of some of the porous plate liners suggest that they should behave as resonant liners while the construction of others suggest that they should behave as broadband attenuators. In each case the finite element theory is observed to predict the proper attenuation trend.

  8. Adolescents' Implicit Theories Predict Desire for Vengeance after Peer Conflicts: Correlational and Experimental Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeager, David S.; Trzesniewski, Kali H.; Tirri, Kirsi; Nokelainen, Petri; Dweck, Carol S.

    2011-01-01

    Why do some adolescents respond to interpersonal conflicts vengefully, whereas others seek more positive solutions? Three studies investigated the role of implicit theories of personality in predicting violent or vengeful responses to peer conflicts among adolescents in Grades 9 and 10. They showed that a greater belief that traits are fixed (an…

  9. Factors Complicating Expectancy Theory Predictions of Work Motivation and Job Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopelman, Richard E.

    The conventional paradigm for testing expectancy theory predictions of work behavior has been to correlate expectancy-value reports with concurrent measures of motivation and performance. Although this static, two-variable approach has typically yielded statistically significant results, correlations have not been sizable. This study, using a…

  10. Understanding the Communicative Implications of Initial Impressions: A Longitudinal Test of Predicted Outcome Value Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Horan, Sean M.; Houser, Marian L.

    2012-01-01

    The goal of the present study was to test predicted outcome value theory (POV) in the classroom in order to discover the implications of students' POV judgments. Specifically, we explored the relationships among students' initial POV judgments and students' communication. To that end, we conducted a two-phase study in which students completed…

  11. A Test and Extension of Objectification Theory as It Predicts Disordered Eating: Does Women's Age Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Augustus-Horvath, Casey L.; Tylka, Tracy L.

    2009-01-01

    When predicting disordered eating, models incorporating several of objectification theory's (B. L. Fredrickson & T. A. Roberts, 1997) core constructs (i.e., sexual objectification, self-objectification, body shame, poor interoceptive awareness) have been empirically supported with women of traditional undergraduate age who are consistent in…

  12. The Prediction of College Student Academic Performance and Retention: Application of Expectancy and Goal Setting Theories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Friedman, Barry A.; Mandel, Rhonda G.

    2010-01-01

    Student retention and performance in higher education are important issues for educators, students, and the nation facing critical professional labor shortages. Expectancy and goal setting theories were used to predict academic performance and college student retention. Students' academic expectancy motivation at the start of the college…

  13. Adolescents' implicit theories predict desire for vengeance after peer conflicts: correlational and experimental evidence.

    PubMed

    Yeager, David S; Trzesniewski, Kali H; Tirri, Kirsi; Nokelainen, Petri; Dweck, Carol S

    2011-07-01

    Why do some adolescents respond to interpersonal conflicts vengefully, whereas others seek more positive solutions? Three studies investigated the role of implicit theories of personality in predicting violent or vengeful responses to peer conflicts among adolescents in Grades 9 and 10. They showed that a greater belief that traits are fixed (an entity theory) predicted a stronger desire for revenge after a variety of recalled peer conflicts (Study 1) and after a hypothetical conflict that specifically involved bullying (Study 2). Study 3 experimentally induced a belief in the potential for change (an incremental theory), which resulted in a reduced desire to seek revenge. This effect was mediated by changes in bad-person attributions about the perpetrators, feelings of shame and hatred, and the belief that vengeful ideation is an effective emotion-regulation strategy. Together, the findings illuminate the social-cognitive processes underlying reactions to conflict and suggest potential avenues for reducing violent retaliation in adolescents.

  14. Predicting intentions versus predicting behaviors: domestic violence prevention from a theory of reasoned action perspective.

    PubMed

    Nabi, Robin L; Southwell, Brian; Hornik, Robert

    2002-01-01

    A central assumption of many models of human behavior is that intention to perform a behavior is highly predictive of actual behavior. This article presents evidence that belies this notion. Based on a survey of 1,250 Philadelphia adults, a clear and consistent pattern emerged suggesting that beliefs related to domestic violence correlate with intentions to act with respect to domestic violence but rarely correlate with reported actions (e.g., talking to the abused woman). Numerous methodological and substantive explanations for this finding are offered with emphasis placed on the complexity of the context in which an action to prevent a domestic violence incident occurs. We conclude by arguing that despite the small, insignificant relationships between beliefs and behaviors found, worthwhile aggregate effects on behavior might still exist, thus reaffirming the role of communication campaign efforts.

  15. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior to predict intention to comply with a food recall message.

    PubMed

    Freberg, Karen

    2013-01-01

    The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) has provided considerable insight into the public's intention to comply with many different health-related messages, but has not been applied previously to intention to comply with food safety recommendations and recalls ( Hallman & Cuite, 2010 ). Because food recalls can differ from other health messages in their urgency, timing, and cessation, the applicability of the TPB in this domain is unknown. The research reported here attempted to address this gap using a nationally representative consumer panel. Results showed that, consistent with the theory's predictions, attitudes and subjective norms were predictive of the intention to comply with a food recall message, with attitudes having a much greater impact on intent to comply than subjective norms. Perceived behavioral control failed to predict intention to comply. Implications of these results for health public relations and crisis communications and recommendations for future research were discussed.

  16. Can the theory of planned behaviour predict the physical activity behaviour of individuals?

    PubMed

    Hobbs, Nicola; Dixon, Diane; Johnston, Marie; Howie, Kate

    2013-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) can identify cognitions that predict differences in behaviour between individuals. However, it is not clear whether the TPB can predict the behaviour of an individual person. This study employs a series of n-of-1 studies and time series analyses to examine the ability of the TPB to predict physical activity (PA) behaviours of six individuals. Six n-of-1 studies were conducted, in which TPB cognitions and up to three PA behaviours (walking, gym workout and a personally defined PA) were measured twice daily for six weeks. Walking was measured by pedometer step count, gym attendance by self-report with objective validation of gym entry and the personally defined PA behaviour by self-report. Intra-individual variability in TPB cognitions and PA behaviour was observed in all participants. The TPB showed variable predictive utility within individuals and across behaviours. The TPB predicted at least one PA behaviour for five participants but had no predictive utility for one participant. Thus, n-of-1 designs and time series analyses can be used to test theory in an individual.

  17. Predicting community structure in snakes on Eastern Nearctic islands using ecological neutral theory and phylogenetic methods.

    PubMed

    Burbrink, Frank T; McKelvy, Alexander D; Pyron, R Alexander; Myers, Edward A

    2015-11-22

    Predicting species presence and richness on islands is important for understanding the origins of communities and how likely it is that species will disperse and resist extinction. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography (ETIB) and, as a simple model of sampling abundances, the unified neutral theory of biodiversity (UNTB), predict that in situations where mainland to island migration is high, species-abundance relationships explain the presence of taxa on islands. Thus, more abundant mainland species should have a higher probability of occurring on adjacent islands. In contrast to UNTB, if certain groups have traits that permit them to disperse to islands better than other taxa, then phylogeny may be more predictive of which taxa will occur on islands. Taking surveys of 54 island snake communities in the Eastern Nearctic along with mainland communities that have abundance data for each species, we use phylogenetic assembly methods and UNTB estimates to predict island communities. Species richness is predicted by island area, whereas turnover from the mainland to island communities is random with respect to phylogeny. Community structure appears to be ecologically neutral and abundance on the mainland is the best predictor of presence on islands. With regard to young and proximate islands, where allopatric or cladogenetic speciation is not a factor, we find that simple neutral models following UNTB and ETIB predict the structure of island communities.

  18. Predicting community structure in snakes on Eastern Nearctic islands using ecological neutral theory and phylogenetic methods

    PubMed Central

    Burbrink, Frank T.; McKelvy, Alexander D.; Pyron, R. Alexander; Myers, Edward A.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting species presence and richness on islands is important for understanding the origins of communities and how likely it is that species will disperse and resist extinction. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography (ETIB) and, as a simple model of sampling abundances, the unified neutral theory of biodiversity (UNTB), predict that in situations where mainland to island migration is high, species-abundance relationships explain the presence of taxa on islands. Thus, more abundant mainland species should have a higher probability of occurring on adjacent islands. In contrast to UNTB, if certain groups have traits that permit them to disperse to islands better than other taxa, then phylogeny may be more predictive of which taxa will occur on islands. Taking surveys of 54 island snake communities in the Eastern Nearctic along with mainland communities that have abundance data for each species, we use phylogenetic assembly methods and UNTB estimates to predict island communities. Species richness is predicted by island area, whereas turnover from the mainland to island communities is random with respect to phylogeny. Community structure appears to be ecologically neutral and abundance on the mainland is the best predictor of presence on islands. With regard to young and proximate islands, where allopatric or cladogenetic speciation is not a factor, we find that simple neutral models following UNTB and ETIB predict the structure of island communities. PMID:26609083

  19. Homogenization Theory for the Prediction of Obstructed Solute Diffusivity in Macromolecular Solutions

    PubMed Central

    Donovan, Preston; Chehreghanianzabi, Yasaman; Rathinam, Muruhan; Zustiak, Silviya Petrova

    2016-01-01

    The study of diffusion in macromolecular solutions is important in many biomedical applications such as separations, drug delivery, and cell encapsulation, and key for many biological processes such as protein assembly and interstitial transport. Not surprisingly, multiple models for the a-priori prediction of diffusion in macromolecular environments have been proposed. However, most models include parameters that are not readily measurable, are specific to the polymer-solute-solvent system, or are fitted and do not have a physical meaning. Here, for the first time, we develop a homogenization theory framework for the prediction of effective solute diffusivity in macromolecular environments based on physical parameters that are easily measurable and not specific to the macromolecule-solute-solvent system. Homogenization theory is useful for situations where knowledge of fine-scale parameters is used to predict bulk system behavior. As a first approximation, we focus on a model where the solute is subjected to obstructed diffusion via stationary spherical obstacles. We find that the homogenization theory results agree well with computationally more expensive Monte Carlo simulations. Moreover, the homogenization theory agrees with effective diffusivities of a solute in dilute and semi-dilute polymer solutions measured using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy. Lastly, we provide a mathematical formula for the effective diffusivity in terms of a non-dimensional and easily measurable geometric system parameter. PMID:26731550

  20. Homogenization Theory for the Prediction of Obstructed Solute Diffusivity in Macromolecular Solutions.

    PubMed

    Donovan, Preston; Chehreghanianzabi, Yasaman; Rathinam, Muruhan; Zustiak, Silviya Petrova

    2016-01-01

    The study of diffusion in macromolecular solutions is important in many biomedical applications such as separations, drug delivery, and cell encapsulation, and key for many biological processes such as protein assembly and interstitial transport. Not surprisingly, multiple models for the a-priori prediction of diffusion in macromolecular environments have been proposed. However, most models include parameters that are not readily measurable, are specific to the polymer-solute-solvent system, or are fitted and do not have a physical meaning. Here, for the first time, we develop a homogenization theory framework for the prediction of effective solute diffusivity in macromolecular environments based on physical parameters that are easily measurable and not specific to the macromolecule-solute-solvent system. Homogenization theory is useful for situations where knowledge of fine-scale parameters is used to predict bulk system behavior. As a first approximation, we focus on a model where the solute is subjected to obstructed diffusion via stationary spherical obstacles. We find that the homogenization theory results agree well with computationally more expensive Monte Carlo simulations. Moreover, the homogenization theory agrees with effective diffusivities of a solute in dilute and semi-dilute polymer solutions measured using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy. Lastly, we provide a mathematical formula for the effective diffusivity in terms of a non-dimensional and easily measurable geometric system parameter.

  1. Theory of mind selectively predicts preschoolers' knowledge-based selective word learning.

    PubMed

    Brosseau-Liard, Patricia; Penney, Danielle; Poulin-Dubois, Diane

    2015-11-01

    Children can selectively attend to various attributes of a model, such as past accuracy or physical strength, to guide their social learning. There is a debate regarding whether a relation exists between theory-of-mind skills and selective learning. We hypothesized that high performance on theory-of-mind tasks would predict preference for learning new words from accurate informants (an epistemic attribute), but not from physically strong informants (a non-epistemic attribute). Three- and 4-year-olds (N = 65) completed two selective learning tasks, and their theory-of-mind abilities were assessed. As expected, performance on a theory-of-mind battery predicted children's preference to learn from more accurate informants but not from physically stronger informants. Results thus suggest that preschoolers with more advanced theory of mind have a better understanding of knowledge and apply that understanding to guide their selection of informants. This work has important implications for research on children's developing social cognition and early learning.

  2. Displacement Theories for In-Flight Deformed Shape Predictions of Aerospace Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Richards, W. L.; Tran, Van t.

    2007-01-01

    Displacement theories are developed for a variety of structures with the goal of providing real-time shape predictions for aerospace vehicles during flight. These theories are initially developed for a cantilever beam to predict the deformed shapes of the Helios flying wing. The main structural configuration of the Helios wing is a cantilever wing tubular spar subjected to bending, torsion, and combined bending and torsion loading. The displacement equations that are formulated are expressed in terms of strains measured at multiple sensing stations equally spaced on the surface of the wing spar. Displacement theories for other structures, such as tapered cantilever beams, two-point supported beams, wing boxes, and plates also are developed. The accuracy of the displacement theories is successfully validated by finite-element analysis and classical beam theory using input-strains generated by finite-element analysis. The displacement equations and associated strain-sensing system (such as fiber optic sensors) create a powerful means for in-flight deformation monitoring of aerospace structures. This method serves multiple purposes for structural shape sensing, loads monitoring, and structural health monitoring. Ultimately, the calculated displacement data can be visually displayed to the ground-based pilot or used as input to the control system to actively control the shape of structures during flight.

  3. Theory of mind selectively predicts preschoolers’ knowledge-based selective word learning

    PubMed Central

    Brosseau-Liard, Patricia; Penney, Danielle; Poulin-Dubois, Diane

    2015-01-01

    Children can selectively attend to various attributes of a model, such as past accuracy or physical strength, to guide their social learning. There is a debate regarding whether a relation exists between theory-of-mind skills and selective learning. We hypothesized that high performance on theory-of-mind tasks would predict preference for learning new words from accurate informants (an epistemic attribute), but not from physically strong informants (a non-epistemic attribute). Three- and 4-year-olds (N = 65) completed two selective learning tasks, and their theory of mind abilities were assessed. As expected, performance on a theory-of-mind battery predicted children’s preference to learn from more accurate informants but not from physically stronger informants. Results thus suggest that preschoolers with more advanced theory of mind have a better understanding of knowledge and apply that understanding to guide their selection of informants. This work has important implications for research on children’s developing social cognition and early learning. PMID:26211504

  4. Pollution control costs of a transboundary river basin: Empirical tests of the fairness and stability of cost allocation mechanisms using game theory.

    PubMed

    Shi, Guang-Ming; Wang, Jin-Nan; Zhang, Bing; Zhang, Zhe; Zhang, Yong-Liang

    2016-07-15

    With rapid economic growth, transboundary river basin pollution in China has become a very serious problem. Based on practical experience in other countries, cooperation among regions is an economic way to control the emission of pollutants. This study develops a game theoretic simulation model to analyze the cost effectiveness of reducing water pollutant emissions in four regions of the Jialu River basin while considering the stability and fairness of four cost allocation schemes. Different schemes (the nucleolus, the weak nucleolus, the Shapley value and the Separable Cost Remaining Benefit (SCRB) principle) are used to allocate regionally agreed-upon water pollutant abatement costs. The main results show that the fully cooperative coalition yielded the highest incremental gain for regions willing to cooperate if each region agreed to negotiate by transferring part of the incremental gain obtained from the cooperation to cover the losses of other regions. In addition, these allocation schemes produce different outcomes in terms of their fairness to the players and in terms of their derived stability, as measured by the Shapley-Shubik Power Index and the Propensity to Disrupt. Although the Shapley value and the SCRB principle exhibit superior fairness and stabilization to the other methods, only the SCRB principle may maintains full cooperation among regions over the long term. The results provide clear empirical evidence that regional gain allocation may affect the sustainability of cooperation. Therefore, it is implied that not only the cost-effectiveness but also the long-term sustainability should be considered while formulating and implementing environmental policies.

  5. Extension of Ko Straight-Beam Displacement Theory to Deformed Shape Predictions of Slender Curved Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Fleischer, Van Tran

    2011-01-01

    The Ko displacement theory originally developed for shape predictions of straight beams is extended to shape predictions of curved beams. The surface strains needed for shape predictions were analytically generated from finite-element nodal stress outputs. With the aid of finite-element displacement outputs, mathematical functional forms for curvature-effect correction terms are established and incorporated into straight-beam deflection equations for shape predictions of both cantilever and two-point supported curved beams. The newly established deflection equations for cantilever curved beams could provide quite accurate shape predictions for different cantilever curved beams, including the quarter-circle cantilever beam. Furthermore, the newly formulated deflection equations for two-point supported curved beams could provide accurate shape predictions for a range of two-point supported curved beams, including the full-circular ring. Accuracy of the newly developed curved-beam deflection equations is validated through shape prediction analysis of curved beams embedded in the windward shallow spherical shell of a generic crew exploration vehicle. A single-point collocation method for optimization of shape predictions is discussed in detail

  6. An equivalent potential vorticity theory applied to the analysis and prediction of severe storm dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paine, D. A.; Kaplan, M. L.

    1976-01-01

    Potential vorticity theory is developed in a description of an equivalent potential temperature topography, and a new theory suited to the description of scale interaction is elaborated. Macroscale triggering of ageostrophic flow fields at the mesoscale, in turn leading to release of convective instability along narrow zones at the microscale, is examined. Correlation of appreciable decrease in potential vorticity with such phenomena as cumulonimbi, tornados, and duststorms is examined. The relevance of a multiscale energy-momentum cascade in numerical prediction of severe mesoscale and microscale phenomena from radiosonde data is reviewed. Hypotheses for mesoscale dynamics are constructed.

  7. When do normative beliefs about aggression predict aggressive behavior? An application of I3 theory.

    PubMed

    Li, Jian-Bin; Nie, Yan-Gang; Boardley, Ian D; Dou, Kai; Situ, Qiao-Min

    2015-01-01

    I(3) theory assumes that aggressive behavior is dependent on three orthogonal processes (i.e., Instigator, Impellance, and Inhibition). Previous studies showed that Impellance (trait aggressiveness, retaliation tendencies) better predicted aggression when Instigator was strong and Inhibition was weak. In the current study, we predicted that another Impellance (i.e., normative beliefs about aggression) might predict aggression when Instigator was absent and Inhibition was high (i.e., the perfect calm proposition). In two experiments, participants first completed the normative beliefs about aggression questionnaire. Two weeks later, participants' self-control resources were manipulated either using the Stroop task (study 1, N = 148) or through an "e-crossing" task (study 2, N = 180). Afterwards, with or without being provoked, participants played a game with an ostensible partner where they had a chance to aggress against them. Study 1 found that normative beliefs about aggression negatively and significantly predicted aggressive behavior only when provocation was absent and self-control resources were not depleted. In Study 2, normative beliefs about aggression negatively predicted aggressive behavior at marginal significance level only in the "no-provocation and no-depletion" condition. In conclusion, the current study provides partial support for the perfect calm proposition and I(3) theory.

  8. Predicting childhood obesity prevention behaviors using social cognitive theory: children in China.

    PubMed

    Murnan, Judy; Sharma, Manoj; Lin, Danhua

    Four commonly suggested public health strategies to combat childhood obesity are limiting television viewing, encouraging daily physical activity, increasing fruit and vegetable intake, and increasing water consumption. This study examined the extent to which selected social cognitive theory constructs can predict these four behaviors in upper elementary Chinese children. A 55-item valid and reliable scale was administered to 282 fifth-graders. Minutes of physical activity was predicted by self-efficacy to exercise and number of times taught at school (R2 = 0.198). Hours of TV watching was predicted by self-efficacy of watching less than two hours of TV (R2 = 0.155). Glasses of water consumed was predicted by self-efficacy for drinking water, gender, and number of times taught about physical activity at school (R2 = 0.100). Servings of fruits and vegetables consumed was predicted by self-efficacy of eating fruits and vegetables (R2 = 0.197). Social cognitive theory offers a useful framework for designing primary prevention interventions to reduce childhood obesity.

  9. Theory and predictions for finite-amplitude waves in two-dimensional plane Poiseuille flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barkley, Dwight

    1990-06-01

    A continuous range of intermediate boundary conditions is defined and studied using bifurcation theory. Based only on previous numerical solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations at constant mean flux and constant mean pressure gradient, it is shown that the finite-amplitude steady waves must have a double-zero eigenvalue at some intermediate boundary condition. From this a unifying picture emerges for the dynamics near the limit point in Reynolds number, and specific predictions are made for finite-amplitude solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations. These predictions include the existence of a homicide orbit and a degenerate Hopf bifurcation.

  10. Modifying gradient theory to predict the surface properties of halogenated hydrocarbons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shestova, T. D.; Lozovsky, T. L.; Zhelezny, V. P.

    2014-05-01

    A new method is proposed for predicting the surface tension, density profile, and thickness of the surface layer of a liquid near an interface using gradient theory. The objects of study are halogenated hydrocarbons. The algorithm for calculating surface properties includes a new modification of the Peng-Robinson cubic equation of state (EoS) that does not require information on the critical parameters, and a new procedure for calculating the influence parameter. Validation of the procedure for predicting the surface properties of liquids shows that the agreement between the calculated surface tension of halogenated hydrocarbons and the existing literature data is sufficient for practical use.

  11. Integrating Self-Determination and Job Demands-Resources Theory in Predicting Mental Health Provider Burnout.

    PubMed

    Dreison, Kimberly C; White, Dominique A; Bauer, Sarah M; Salyers, Michelle P; McGuire, Alan B

    2016-10-25

    Limited progress has been made in reducing burnout in mental health professionals. Accordingly, we identified factors that might protect against burnout and could be productive focal areas for future interventions. Guided by self-determination theory, we examined whether supervisor autonomy support, self-efficacy, and staff cohesion predict provider burnout. 358 staff from 13 agencies completed surveys. Higher levels of supervisor autonomy support, self-efficacy, and staff cohesion were predictive of lower burnout, even after accounting for job demands. Although administrators may be limited in their ability to reduce job demands, our findings suggest that increasing core job resources may be a viable alternative.

  12. The speed of sound through trabecular bone predicted by Biot theory.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Young June; Chung, Jae-Pil; Bae, Chul-Soo; Han, Seog-Young

    2012-02-23

    Cancellous bone is a highly porous material filled with fluid. The mechanical properties of cancellous bone determine whether the bone is normal or osteoporotic. Wave propagation can be used to measure the elastic constants of cancellous bone. Recently, poroelasticity theory has been used to predict the elastic constants of cancellous bone from the wave velocities. In this study, it is shown that the fast wave, predicted by the Biot theory, corresponds to the wave penetrating the trabeculae, while the slow wave is determined by the interaction between the trabeculae and the fluid. The trabecular shape does not affect the wave velocity significantly when using the variable, which is determined by the microstructure, and the slow wave velocity decreases after the porosity reaches 80%.

  13. Chiral effective field theory predictions for muon capture on deuteron and {3}He.

    PubMed

    Marcucci, L E; Kievsky, A; Rosati, S; Schiavilla, R; Viviani, M

    2012-02-03

    The muon-capture reactions {2}H(μ{-},ν{μ})nn and {3}He(μ{-},ν{μ}){3}H are studied with nuclear potentials and charge-changing weak currents, derived in chiral effective field theory. The low-energy constants (LECs) c{D} and c{E}, present in the three-nucleon potential and (c{D}) axial-vector current, are constrained to reproduce the A=3 binding energies and the triton Gamow-Teller matrix element. The muon-capture rates on deuteron and {3}He are predicted to be 399±3  sec{-1} and 1494±21  sec{-1}, respectively. The spread accounts for the cutoff sensitivity, as well as uncertainties in the LECs and electroweak radiative corrections. By comparing the calculated and precisely measured rates on {3}He, a value for the induced pseudoscalar form factor is obtained in good agreement with the chiral perturbation theory prediction.

  14. New predictions for generalized spin polarizabilities from heavy baryon chiral perturbation theory

    SciTech Connect

    Chung-Wen Kao; Barbara Pasquini; Marc Vanderhaeghen

    2004-08-01

    We extract the next-to-next-to-leading order results for spin-flip generalized polarizabilities (GPs) of the nucleon from the spin-dependent amplitudes for virtual Compton scattering (VCS) at {Omicron}(p{sup 4}) in heavy baryon chiral perturbation theory. At this order, no unknown low energy constants enter the theory, allowing us to make absolute predictions for all spin-flip GPs. Furthermore, by using constraint equations between the GPs due to nucleon crossing combined with charge conjugation symmetry of the VCS amplitudes, we get a next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order prediction for one of the GPs. We provide estimates for forthcoming double polarization experiments which allow to access these spin-flip GPs of the nucleon.

  15. New predictions for generalized spin polarizabilities from heavy baryon chiral perturbation theory

    SciTech Connect

    Kao, C.-W.; Pasquini, Barbara; Vanderhaeghen, Marc

    2004-12-01

    We extract the next-to-next-to-leading order results for spin-flip generalized polarizabilities (GPs) of the nucleon from the spin-dependent amplitudes for virtual Compton scattering at O(p{sup 4}) in heavy baryon chiral perturbation theory. At this order, no unknown low-energy constants enter the theory, allowing us to make absolute predictions for all spin-flip GPs. Furthermore, by using constraint equations between the GPs due to nucleon crossing combined with charge conjugation symmetry of the virtual Compton scattering amplitudes, we get a next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order prediction for one of the GPs. We provide estimates for forthcoming double-polarization experiments which allow one to access these spin-flip GPs of the nucleon.

  16. The arcing rate for a High Voltage Solar Array - Theory, experiment and predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hastings, Daniel E.; Cho, Mengu; Kuninaka, Hitoshi

    1992-01-01

    All solar arrays have biased surfaces which can be exposed to the space environment. It has been observed that when the array bias is less than a few hundred volts negative then the exposed conductive surfaces may undergo arcing in the space plasma. A theory for arcing is developed on these high voltage solar arrays which ascribes the arcing to electric field runaway at the interface of the plasma, conductor and solar cell dielectric. Experiments were conducted in the laboratory for the High Voltage Solar Array (HVSA) experiment which will fly on the Japanese Space Flyer Unit (SFU) in 1994. The theory was compared in detail to the experiment and shown to give a reasonable explanation for the data. The combined theory and ground experiments were then used to develop predictions for the SFU flight.

  17. Arcing rates for High Voltage Solar Arrays - Theory, experiment, and predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hastings, Daniel E.; Cho, Mengu; Kuninaka, Hitoshi

    1992-01-01

    All solar arrays have biased surfaces that can be exposed to the space environment. It has been observed that when the array bias is less than a few hundred volts negative, then the exposed conductive surfaces may undergo arcing in the space plasma. A theory for arcing is developed on these high voltage solar arrays that ascribes the arcing to electric field runaway at the interface of the plasma, conductor, and solar cell dielectric. Experiments were conducted in the laboratory for the High Voltage Solar Array experiment that will fly on the Japanese Space Flyer Unit (SFU) in 1994. The theory was compared in detail with the experiment and shown to give a reasonable explanation for the data. The combined theory and ground experiments were then used to develop predictions for the SFU flight.

  18. Statistical Learning Theory for High Dimensional Prediction: Application to Criterion-Keyed Scale Development

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Benjamin P.; Weiss, Alexander; Duberstein, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Statistical learning theory (SLT) is the statistical formulation of machine learning theory, a body of analytic methods common in “big data” problems. Regression-based SLT algorithms seek to maximize predictive accuracy for some outcome, given a large pool of potential predictors, without overfitting the sample. Research goals in psychology may sometimes call for high dimensional regression. One example is criterion-keyed scale construction, where a scale with maximal predictive validity must be built from a large item pool. Using this as a working example, we first introduce a core principle of SLT methods: minimization of expected prediction error (EPE). Minimizing EPE is fundamentally different than maximizing the within-sample likelihood, and hinges on building a predictive model of sufficient complexity to predict the outcome well, without undue complexity leading to overfitting. We describe how such models are built and refined via cross-validation. We then illustrate how three common SLT algorithms–Supervised Principal Components, Regularization, and Boosting—can be used to construct a criterion-keyed scale predicting all-cause mortality, using a large personality item pool within a population cohort. Each algorithm illustrates a different approach to minimizing EPE. Finally, we consider broader applications of SLT predictive algorithms, both as supportive analytic tools for conventional methods, and as primary analytic tools in discovery phase research. We conclude that despite their differences from the classic null-hypothesis testing approach—or perhaps because of them–SLT methods may hold value as a statistically rigorous approach to exploratory regression. PMID:27454257

  19. Statistical learning theory for high dimensional prediction: Application to criterion-keyed scale development.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Benjamin P; Weiss, Alexander; Duberstein, Paul R

    2016-12-01

    Statistical learning theory (SLT) is the statistical formulation of machine learning theory, a body of analytic methods common in "big data" problems. Regression-based SLT algorithms seek to maximize predictive accuracy for some outcome, given a large pool of potential predictors, without overfitting the sample. Research goals in psychology may sometimes call for high dimensional regression. One example is criterion-keyed scale construction, where a scale with maximal predictive validity must be built from a large item pool. Using this as a working example, we first introduce a core principle of SLT methods: minimization of expected prediction error (EPE). Minimizing EPE is fundamentally different than maximizing the within-sample likelihood, and hinges on building a predictive model of sufficient complexity to predict the outcome well, without undue complexity leading to overfitting. We describe how such models are built and refined via cross-validation. We then illustrate how 3 common SLT algorithms-supervised principal components, regularization, and boosting-can be used to construct a criterion-keyed scale predicting all-cause mortality, using a large personality item pool within a population cohort. Each algorithm illustrates a different approach to minimizing EPE. Finally, we consider broader applications of SLT predictive algorithms, both as supportive analytic tools for conventional methods, and as primary analytic tools in discovery phase research. We conclude that despite their differences from the classic null-hypothesis testing approach-or perhaps because of them-SLT methods may hold value as a statistically rigorous approach to exploratory regression. (PsycINFO Database Record

  20. A new theory of plant-microbe nutrient competition resolves inconsistencies between observations and model predictions.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Qing; Riley, William J; Tang, Jinyun

    2017-04-01

    Terrestrial plants assimilate anthropogenic CO2 through photosynthesis and synthesizing new tissues. However, sustaining these processes requires plants to compete with microbes for soil nutrients, which therefore calls for an appropriate understanding and modeling of nutrient competition mechanisms in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we survey existing plant-microbe competition theories and their implementations in ESMs. We found no consensus regarding the representation of nutrient competition and that observational and theoretical support for current implementations are weak. To reconcile this situation, we applied the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation (ECA) theory to plant-microbe nitrogen competition in a detailed grassland (15) N tracer study and found that competition theories in current ESMs fail to capture observed patterns and the ECA prediction simplifies the complex nature of nutrient competition and quantitatively matches the (15) N observations. Since plant carbon dynamics are strongly modulated by soil nutrient acquisition, we conclude that (1) predicted nutrient limitation effects on terrestrial carbon accumulation by existing ESMs may be biased and (2) our ECA-based approach may improve predictions by mechanistically representing plant-microbe nutrient competition.

  1. Further Development of Ko Displacement Theory for Deformed Shape Predictions of Nonuniform Aerospace Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Fleischer, Van Tran

    2009-01-01

    The Ko displacement theory previously formulated for deformed shape predictions of nonuniform beam structures is further developed mathematically. The further-developed displacement equations are expressed explicitly in terms of geometrical parameters of the beam and bending strains at equally spaced strain-sensing stations along the multiplexed fiber-optic sensor line installed on the bottom surface of the beam. The bending strain data can then be input into the displacement equations for calculations of local slopes, deflections, and cross-sectional twist angles for generating the overall deformed shapes of the nonuniform beam. The further-developed displacement theory can also be applied to the deformed shape predictions of nonuniform two-point supported beams, nonuniform panels, nonuniform aircraft wings and fuselages, and so forth. The high degree of accuracy of the further-developed displacement theory for nonuniform beams is validated by finite-element analysis of various nonuniform beam structures. Such structures include tapered tubular beams, depth-tapered unswept and swept wing boxes, width-tapered wing boxes, and double-tapered wing boxes, all under combined bending and torsional loads. The Ko displacement theory, combined with the fiber-optic strain-sensing system, provide a powerful tool for in-flight deformed shape monitoring of unmanned aerospace vehicles by ground-based pilots to maintain safe flights.

  2. On the Applicability of DLVO Theory to the Prediction of Clay Colloids Stability.

    PubMed

    Missana; Adell

    2000-10-01

    The stability behavior of Na-montmorillonite colloids has been studied by combining the analysis of their surface charge properties and time-resolved dynamic light scattering experiments. The chemical surface model for several types of clays, including montmorillonite, has to take into account the double surface charge contribution due to their permanent structural charge and to their pH-dependent charge, which is developed at the edge sites, therefore, these stability studies were carried out as a function of both ionic strength and pH. DLVO theory is largely applied for the prediction of the stability of many colloidal systems, including the natural ones. This work shows that the stability behavior of Na-montmorillonite colloids cannot be satisfactorily reproduced by DLVO theory, using the surface parameters experimentally obtained. Particularly, this theory is unable to explain their pH-dependent stability behavior caused by the small charge at the edge sites. Based on these results, a literature review of DLVO stability prediction of clay colloids was performed. It confirmed that this theory is not capable of taking into account the double contribution to the total surface charge and, at the same time, pointed out the main uncertainties related to the appropriate use of the input parameters for the calculation as, for example, the Hamaker constant or the surface potential. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

  3. Theory of optimal balance predicts and explains the amplitude and decay time of synaptic inhibition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jaekyung K.; Fiorillo, Christopher D.

    2017-03-01

    Synaptic inhibition counterbalances excitation, but it is not known what constitutes optimal inhibition. We previously proposed that perfect balance is achieved when the peak of an excitatory postsynaptic potential (EPSP) is exactly at spike threshold, so that the slightest variation in excitation determines whether a spike is generated. Using simulations, we show that the optimal inhibitory postsynaptic conductance (IPSG) increases in amplitude and decay rate as synaptic excitation increases from 1 to 800 Hz. As further proposed by theory, we show that optimal IPSG parameters can be learned through anti-Hebbian rules. Finally, we compare our theoretical optima to published experimental data from 21 types of neurons, in which rates of synaptic excitation and IPSG decay times vary by factors of about 100 (5-600 Hz) and 50 (1-50 ms), respectively. From an infinite range of possible decay times, theory predicted experimental decay times within less than a factor of 2. Across a distinct set of 15 types of neuron recorded in vivo, theory predicted the amplitude of synaptic inhibition within a factor of 1.7. Thus, the theory can explain biophysical quantities from first principles.

  4. Theory of optimal balance predicts and explains the amplitude and decay time of synaptic inhibition

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jaekyung K.; Fiorillo, Christopher D.

    2017-01-01

    Synaptic inhibition counterbalances excitation, but it is not known what constitutes optimal inhibition. We previously proposed that perfect balance is achieved when the peak of an excitatory postsynaptic potential (EPSP) is exactly at spike threshold, so that the slightest variation in excitation determines whether a spike is generated. Using simulations, we show that the optimal inhibitory postsynaptic conductance (IPSG) increases in amplitude and decay rate as synaptic excitation increases from 1 to 800 Hz. As further proposed by theory, we show that optimal IPSG parameters can be learned through anti-Hebbian rules. Finally, we compare our theoretical optima to published experimental data from 21 types of neurons, in which rates of synaptic excitation and IPSG decay times vary by factors of about 100 (5–600 Hz) and 50 (1–50 ms), respectively. From an infinite range of possible decay times, theory predicted experimental decay times within less than a factor of 2. Across a distinct set of 15 types of neuron recorded in vivo, theory predicted the amplitude of synaptic inhibition within a factor of 1.7. Thus, the theory can explain biophysical quantities from first principles. PMID:28281523

  5. Using predator-prey theory to predict outcomes of broadscale experiments to reduce apparent competition.

    PubMed

    Serrouya, Robert; Wittmann, Meike J; McLellan, Bruce N; Wittmer, Heiko U; Boutin, Stan

    2015-05-01

    Apparent competition is an important process influencing many ecological communities. We used predator-prey theory to predict outcomes of ecosystem experiments aimed at mitigating apparent competition by reducing primary prey. Simulations predicted declines in secondary prey following reductions in primary prey because predators consumed more secondary prey until predator numbers responded to reduced prey densities. Losses were exacerbated by a higher carrying capacity of primary prey and a longer lag time of the predator's numerical response, but a gradual reduction in primary prey was less detrimental to the secondary prey. We compared predictions against two field experiments where endangered woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) were victims of apparent competition. First, when deer (Odocoileus sp.) declined suddenly following a severe winter, cougar (Puma concolor) declined with a 1-2-year lag, yet in the interim more caribou were killed by cougars, and caribou populations declined by 40%. Second, when moose (Alces alces) were gradually reduced using a management experiment, wolf (Canis lupus) populations declined but did not shift consumption to caribou, and the largest caribou subpopulation stabilized. The observed contrasting outcomes of sudden versus gradual declines in primary prey supported theoretical predictions. Combining theory with field studies clarified how to manage communities to mitigate endangerment caused by apparent competition that affects many taxa.

  6. [Prediction of regional soil quality based on mutual information theory integrated with decision tree algorithm].

    PubMed

    Lin, Fen-Fang; Wang, Ke; Yang, Ning; Yan, Shi-Guang; Zheng, Xin-Yu

    2012-02-01

    In this paper, some main factors such as soil type, land use pattern, lithology type, topography, road, and industry type that affect soil quality were used to precisely obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of regional soil quality, mutual information theory was adopted to select the main environmental factors, and decision tree algorithm See 5.0 was applied to predict the grade of regional soil quality. The main factors affecting regional soil quality were soil type, land use, lithology type, distance to town, distance to water area, altitude, distance to road, and distance to industrial land. The prediction accuracy of the decision tree model with the variables selected by mutual information was obviously higher than that of the model with all variables, and, for the former model, whether of decision tree or of decision rule, its prediction accuracy was all higher than 80%. Based on the continuous and categorical data, the method of mutual information theory integrated with decision tree could not only reduce the number of input parameters for decision tree algorithm, but also predict and assess regional soil quality effectively.

  7. Control theory prediction of resolved Cheyne-Stokes respiration in heart failure.

    PubMed

    Sands, Scott A; Edwards, Bradley A; Kee, Kirk; Stuart-Andrews, Christopher; Skuza, Elizabeth M; Roebuck, Teanau; Turton, Anthony; Hamilton, Garun S; Naughton, Matthew T; Berger, Philip J

    2016-11-01

    Cheyne-Stokes respiration (CSR) foretells deleterious outcomes in patients with heart failure. Currently, the size of therapeutic intervention is not guided by the patient's underlying pathophysiology. In theory, the intervention needed to resolve CSR, as a control system instability (loop gain >1), can be predicted knowing the baseline loop gain and how much it falls with therapy.In 12 patients with heart failure, we administered an inspiratory carbon dioxide fraction of 1-3% during CSR (n=95 interventions) as a means to reduce loop gain. We estimated the loop gain on therapy (LGtherapy), using the baseline loop gain (using hyperpnoea length/cycle length) and its expected reduction (18% per 1% inspired carbon dioxide), and tested the specific hypothesis that LGtherapy predicts CSR persistence (LGtherapy >1) versus resolution (LGtherapy <1).As predicted, when LGtherapy >1.0, CSR continued during therapy in 23 out of 25 (92%) trials. A borderline loop gain zone (0.8theory provides predictive insight into CSR resolution in heart failure. Thus, we now have a means to calculate the size of interventions needed to ameliorate CSR on a patient-by-patient basis.

  8. Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank; Ragone, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source climate model featuring O(105) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Using the theoretical framework of the pullback attractor and the tools of response theory we propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting - at any lead time and in an ensemble sense - the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as their spatial patterns. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  9. Observations and theory of Mg II lines in early type stars. II - Theory and predicted profiles. III - The observations and a comparison with the predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Snijders, M. A. J.; Lamers, H. J. G. L. M.

    1975-01-01

    Profiles of the UV Mg II lines in the spectra of early type stars are computed in a grid of model atmospheres with effective temperatures between 8000 and 35,000 K and log g values of 2.5 to 4.0 using the LTE and non-LTE theories of line formation. The theoretical results indicate that the line cores are strengthened by non-LTE effects over the entire temperature range, resonance-line wings are weaker in the cooler models than in the LTE case, and very large deviations from LTE occur in the hot low-gravity models. These predictions are compared with the equivalent widths of the UV Mg II lines in 106 stars and of the visual lines in 48 stars (spectral types O4 to A3). The observed equivalent widths of normal stars in luminosity classes II through V are found to agree with the predictions over the entire range from O8 to A2 if a certain Mg/H abundance is adopted. The line intensities observed in supergiants, Be, Bp, and Ap stars are discussed.

  10. Information theory applied to the sparse gene ontology annotation network to predict novel gene function

    PubMed Central

    Tao, Ying; Li, Jianrong

    2010-01-01

    Motivation Despite advances in the gene annotation process, the functions of a large portion of the gene products remain insufficiently characterized. In addition, the “in silico” prediction of novel Gene Ontology (GO) annotations for partially characterized gene functions or processes is highly dependent on reverse genetic or function genomics approaches. Results We propose a novel approach, Information Theory-based Semantic Similarity (ITSS), to automatically predict molecular functions of genes based on Gene Ontology annotations. We have demonstrated using a 10-fold cross-validation that the ITSS algorithm obtains prediction accuracies (Precision 97%, Recall 77%) comparable to other machine learning algorithms when applied to similarly dense annotated portions of the GO datasets. In addition, such method can generate highly accurate predictions in sparsely annotated portions of GO, in which previous algorithm failed to do so. As a result, our technique generates an order of magnitude more gene function predictions than previous methods. Further, this paper presents the first historical rollback validation for the predicted GO annotations, which may represent more realistic conditions for an evaluation than generally used cross-validations type of evaluations. By manually assessing a random sample of 100 predictions conducted in a historical roll-back evaluation, we estimate that a minimum precision of 51% (95% confidence interval: 43%–58%) can be achieved for the human GO Annotation file dated 2003. Availability The program is available on request. The 97,732 positive predictions of novel gene annotations from the 2005 GO Annotation dataset are available at http://phenos.bsd.uchicago.edu/mphenogo/prediction_result_2005.txt. PMID:17646340

  11. AAA gunnermodel based on observer theory. [predicting a gunner's tracking response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kou, R. S.; Glass, B. C.; Day, C. N.; Vikmanis, M. M.

    1978-01-01

    The Luenberger observer theory is used to develop a predictive model of a gunner's tracking response in antiaircraft artillery systems. This model is composed of an observer, a feedback controller and a remnant element. An important feature of the model is that the structure is simple, hence a computer simulation requires only a short execution time. A parameter identification program based on the least squares curve fitting method and the Gauss Newton gradient algorithm is developed to determine the parameter values of the gunner model. Thus, a systematic procedure exists for identifying model parameters for a given antiaircraft tracking task. Model predictions of tracking errors are compared with human tracking data obtained from manned simulation experiments. Model predictions are in excellent agreement with the empirical data for several flyby and maneuvering target trajectories.

  12. Community ecology theory predicts the effects of agrochemical mixtures on aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem properties.

    PubMed

    Halstead, Neal T; McMahon, Taegan A; Johnson, Steve A; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; Crumrine, Patrick W; Rohr, Jason R

    2014-08-01

    Ecosystems are often exposed to mixtures of chemical contaminants, but the scientific community lacks a theoretical framework to predict the effects of mixtures on biodiversity and ecosystem properties. We conducted a freshwater mesocosm experiment to examine the effects of pairwise agrochemical mixtures [fertiliser, herbicide (atrazine), insecticide (malathion) and fungicide (chlorothalonil)] on 24 species- and seven ecosystem-level responses. As postulated, the responses of biodiversity and ecosystem properties to agrochemicals alone and in mixtures was predictable by integrating information on each functional group's (1) sensitivity to the chemicals (direct effects), (2) reproductive rates (recovery rates), (3) interaction strength with other functional groups (indirect effects) and (4) links to ecosystem properties. These results show that community ecology theory holds promise for predicting the effects of contaminant mixtures on biodiversity and ecosystem services and yields recommendations on which types of agrochemicals to apply together and separately to reduce their impacts on aquatic ecosystems.

  13. Nonideal statistical rate theory formulation to predict evaporation rates from equations of state.

    PubMed

    Kapoor, Atam; Elliott, Janet A W

    2008-11-27

    A method of including nonideal effects in the statistical rate theory (SRT) formulation is presented and a generic equation-of-state based SRT model was developed for predicting evaporation rates. Further, taking the Peng-Robinson equation of state as an example, vapor phase pressures at which particular evaporation rates are expected were calculated, and the predictions were found to be in excellent agreement with the experimental observations for water and octane. A high temperature range (near the critical region) where the previously existing ideal SRT model is expected to yield inaccurate results was identified and predictions (for ethane and butane) were instead made with the Peng-Robinson based SRT model to correct for fluid nonidealities at high temperatures and pressures.

  14. Predicting Substance Abuse Treatment Completion using a New Scale Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Zemore, Sarah E.; Ajzen, Icek

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether a 9-item scale based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) predicted substance abuse treatment completion. Data were collected at a public, outpatient program among clients initiating treatment (N=200). Baseline surveys included measures of treatment-related attitudes, norms, perceived control, and intention; discharge status was collected from program records. As expected, TPB attitude and control components independently predicted intention (model R-squared=.56), and intention was positively associated with treatment completion even including clinical and demographic covariates (model R-squared=.24). TPB components were generally associated with the alternative readiness scales as expected, and the TPB remained predictive at higher levels of coercion. Meanwhile, none of the standard measures of readiness (e.g., the URICA and TREAT) or treatment coercion were positively associated with treatment participation. Results suggest promise for application of the TPB to treatment completion and support use of the intention component as a screener, though some refinements are suggested. PMID:23953167

  15. Sensor data fusion for accurate cloud presence prediction using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory.

    PubMed

    Li, Jiaming; Luo, Suhuai; Jin, Jesse S

    2010-01-01

    Sensor data fusion technology can be used to best extract useful information from multiple sensor observations. It has been widely applied in various applications such as target tracking, surveillance, robot navigation, signal and image processing. This paper introduces a novel data fusion approach in a multiple radiation sensor environment using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The methodology is used to predict cloud presence based on the inputs of radiation sensors. Different radiation data have been used for the cloud prediction. The potential application areas of the algorithm include renewable power for virtual power station where the prediction of cloud presence is the most challenging issue for its photovoltaic output. The algorithm is validated by comparing the predicted cloud presence with the corresponding sunshine occurrence data that were recorded as the benchmark. Our experiments have indicated that comparing to the approaches using individual sensors, the proposed data fusion approach can increase correct rate of cloud prediction by ten percent, and decrease unknown rate of cloud prediction by twenty three percent.

  16. Testing the Predictions of Random Matrix Theory in Low Loss Wave Chaotic Scattering Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, Jen-Hao; Antonsen, Thomas; Ott, Edward; Anlage, Steven

    2013-03-01

    Wave chaos is a field where researchers apply random matrix theory (RMT) to predict the statistics of wave properties in complicated wave scattering systems. The RMT predictions have successfully demonstrated universality of the distributions of these wave properties, which only depend on the loss parameter of the system and the physical symmetry. Examination of these predictions in very low loss systems is interesting because extreme limits for the distribution functions and other predictions are encountered. Therefore, we use a wave-chaotic superconducting cavity to establish a low loss environment and test RMT predictions, including the statistics of the scattering (S) matrix and the impedance (Z) matrix, the universality (or lack thereof) of the Z- and S-variance ratios, and the statistics of the proper delay times of the Wigner-Smith time-delay matrix. We have applied an in-situ microwave calibration method (Thru-Reflection-Line method) to calibrate the cryostat system, and we also applied the random coupling model to remove the system-specific features. Our experimental results of different properties agree with the RMT predictions. This work is funded by the ONR/Maryland AppEl Center Task A2 (contract No. N000140911190), the AFOSR under grant FA95500710049, and Center for Nanophysics and Advanced Materials.

  17. Minority Transportation Expenditure Allocation Model

    SciTech Connect

    Vyas, Anant D.; Santini, Danilo J.; Marik, Sheri K.

    1993-04-12

    MITRAM (Minority TRansportation expenditure Allocation Model) can project various transportation related attributes of minority (Black and Hispanic) and majority (white) populations. The model projects vehicle ownership, vehicle miles of travel, workers, new car and on-road fleet fuel economy, amount and share of household income spent on gasoline, and household expenditures on public transportation and taxis. MITRAM predicts reactions to sustained fuel price changes for up to 10 years after the change.

  18. Global-scale predictions of community and ecosystem properties from simple ecological theory.

    PubMed

    Jennings, Simon; Mélin, Frédéric; Blanchard, Julia L; Forster, Rodney M; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Wilson, Rod W

    2008-06-22

    We show how theoretical developments in macroecology, life-history theory and food-web ecology can be combined to formulate a simple model for predicting the potential biomass, production, size and trophic structure of consumer communities. The strength of our approach is that it uses remote sensing data to predict properties of consumer communities in environments that are challenging and expensive to sample directly. An application of the model to the marine environment on a global scale, using primary production and temperature estimates from satellite remote sensing as inputs, suggests that the global biomass of marine animals more than 10(-5) g wet weight is 2.62 x 10(9)t (=8.16 gm(-2) ocean) and production is 1.00 x 10(10) tyr-1 (31.15 gm(-2)yr(-1)). Based on the life-history theory, we propose and apply an approximation for distinguishing the relative contributions of different animal groups. Fish biomass and production, for example, are estimated as 8.99 x 10(8)t (2.80 gm(-2)) and 7.91 x 108 t yr(-1) (2.46 gm(2)yr(-1)respectively, and 50% of fish biomass is shown to occur in 17% of the total ocean area (8.22 gm(-2)). The analyses show that emerging ecological theory can be synthesized to set baselines for assessing human and climate impacts on global scales.

  19. Towards a Predictive Theory of Malaria: Connections to Spatio-temporal Variability of Climate and Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endo, N.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria transmission is closely linked to climatology, hydrology, environment, and the biology of local vectors. These factors interact with each other and non-linearly influence malaria transmission dynamics, making prediction and prevention challenging. Our work attempts to find a universality in the multi-dimensional system of malaria transmission and to develop a theory to predict emergence of malaria given a limited set of environmental and biological inputs.A credible malaria transmission dynamics model, HYDREMATS (Bomblies et al., 2008), was used under hypothetical settings to investigate the role of spatial and temporal distribution of vector breeding pools. HYDREMATS is a mechanistic model and capable of simulating the basic reproduction rate (Ro) without bold assumptions even under dynamic conditions. The spatial distribution of pools is mainly governed by hydrological factors; the impact of pool persistence and rainy season length on malaria transmission were investigated. Also analyzed was the impact of the temporal distribution of pools relative to human houses. We developed non-dimensional variables combining the hydrological and biological parameters. Simulated values of Ro from HYDREMATS are presented in a newly-introduced non-dimensional plane, which leads to a some-what universal theory describing the condition for sustainable malaria transmission. The findings were tested against observations both from the West Africa and the Ethiopian Highland, representing diverse hydroclimatological conditions. Predicated Ro values from the theory over the two regions are in good agreement with the observed malaria transmission data.

  20. Testing predictions from the male control theory of men's partner violence.

    PubMed

    Bates, Elizabeth A; Graham-Kevan, Nicola; Archer, John

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to test predictions from the male control theory of intimate partner violence (IPV) and Johnson's [Johnson, M. P. (1995). Journal of Marriage and the Family, 57, 282-294] typology. A student sample (N = 1,104) reported on their use of physical aggression and controlling behavior, to partners and to same-sex non-intimates. Contrary to the male control theory, women were found to be more physically aggressive to their partners than men were, and the reverse pattern was found for aggression to same-sex non-intimates. Furthermore, there were no substantial sex differences in controlling behavior, which significantly predicted physical aggression in both sexes. IPV was found to be associated with physical aggression to same-sex non-intimates, thereby demonstrating a link with aggression outside the family. Using Johnson's typology, women were more likely than men to be classed as "intimate terrorists," which was counter to earlier findings. Overall, these results do not support the male control theory of IPV. Instead, they fit the view that IPV does not have a special etiology, and is better studied within the context of other forms of aggression.

  1. Large-Scale Transportation Network Congestion Evolution Prediction Using Deep Learning Theory

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Xiaolei; Yu, Haiyang; Wang, Yunpeng; Wang, Yinhai

    2015-01-01

    Understanding how congestion at one location can cause ripples throughout large-scale transportation network is vital for transportation researchers and practitioners to pinpoint traffic bottlenecks for congestion mitigation. Traditional studies rely on either mathematical equations or simulation techniques to model traffic congestion dynamics. However, most of the approaches have limitations, largely due to unrealistic assumptions and cumbersome parameter calibration process. With the development of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and Internet of Things (IoT), transportation data become more and more ubiquitous. This triggers a series of data-driven research to investigate transportation phenomena. Among them, deep learning theory is considered one of the most promising techniques to tackle tremendous high-dimensional data. This study attempts to extend deep learning theory into large-scale transportation network analysis. A deep Restricted Boltzmann Machine and Recurrent Neural Network architecture is utilized to model and predict traffic congestion evolution based on Global Positioning System (GPS) data from taxi. A numerical study in Ningbo, China is conducted to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. Results show that the prediction accuracy can achieve as high as 88% within less than 6 minutes when the model is implemented in a Graphic Processing Unit (GPU)-based parallel computing environment. The predicted congestion evolution patterns can be visualized temporally and spatially through a map-based platform to identify the vulnerable links for proactive congestion mitigation. PMID:25780910

  2. Reduction in Prosodic Prominence Predicts Speakers’ Recall: Implications for Theories of Prosody

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Duane G.; Benjamin, Aaron S.

    2014-01-01

    Repeated words are often reduced in prosodic prominence, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. The present study contrasted two theories: does prosodic reduction reflect the choice of a particular linguistic form, or does ease of retrieval within the language production system lead to facilitated, less prominent productions? One test of facilitation-based theories is suggested by findings on human memory: Whether a second presentation of an item benefits later memory is predicted by the item’s availability at the time of the second presentation. If prosodic reduction partially reflects facilitated retrieval, it should predict later memory. One naïve participant described to another participant routes on a map. Critical items were mentioned twice. Following the map task, the speaker attempted written recall of the mentioned items. As expected, acoustic intensity of the second mentions predicted later recall in the same way that difficulty of retrieval has in other tasks. This pattern suggests that one source of prosodic reduction is facilitation within the language production system. PMID:26594647

  3. Large-scale transportation network congestion evolution prediction using deep learning theory.

    PubMed

    Ma, Xiaolei; Yu, Haiyang; Wang, Yunpeng; Wang, Yinhai

    2015-01-01

    Understanding how congestion at one location can cause ripples throughout large-scale transportation network is vital for transportation researchers and practitioners to pinpoint traffic bottlenecks for congestion mitigation. Traditional studies rely on either mathematical equations or simulation techniques to model traffic congestion dynamics. However, most of the approaches have limitations, largely due to unrealistic assumptions and cumbersome parameter calibration process. With the development of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and Internet of Things (IoT), transportation data become more and more ubiquitous. This triggers a series of data-driven research to investigate transportation phenomena. Among them, deep learning theory is considered one of the most promising techniques to tackle tremendous high-dimensional data. This study attempts to extend deep learning theory into large-scale transportation network analysis. A deep Restricted Boltzmann Machine and Recurrent Neural Network architecture is utilized to model and predict traffic congestion evolution based on Global Positioning System (GPS) data from taxi. A numerical study in Ningbo, China is conducted to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. Results show that the prediction accuracy can achieve as high as 88% within less than 6 minutes when the model is implemented in a Graphic Processing Unit (GPU)-based parallel computing environment. The predicted congestion evolution patterns can be visualized temporally and spatially through a map-based platform to identify the vulnerable links for proactive congestion mitigation.

  4. a Classical Isodual Theory of Antimatter and its Prediction of Antigravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santilli, Ruggero Maria

    An inspection of the contemporary physics literature reveals that, while matter is treated at all levels of study, from Newtonian mechanics to quantum field theory, antimatter is solely treated at the level of second quantization. For the purpose of initiating the restoration of full equivalence in the treatment of matter and antimatter in due time, and as the classical foundations of an axiomatically consistent inclusion of gravitation in unified gauge theories recently appeared elsewhere, in this paper we present a classical representation of antimatter which begins at the primitive Newtonian level with corresponding formulations at all subsequent levels. By recalling that charge conjugation of particles into antiparticles is antiautomorphic, the proposed theory of antimatter is based on a new map, called isoduality, which is also antiautomorphic (and more generally, antiisomorphic), yet it is applicable beginning at the classical level and then persists at the quantum level where it becomes equivalent to charge conjugation. We therefore present, apparently for the first time, the classical isodual theory of antimatter, we identify the physical foundations of the theory as being the novel isodual Galilean, special and general relativities, and we show the compatibility of the theory with all available classical experimental data on antimatter. We identify the classical foundations of the prediction of antigravity for antimatter in the field of matter (or vice-versa) without any claim on its validity, and defer its resolution to specifically identified experiments. We identify the novel, classical, isodual electromagnetic waves which are predicted to be emitted by antimatter, the so-called space-time machine based on a novel non-Newtonian geometric propulsion, and other implications of the theory. We also introduce, apparently for the first time, the isodual space and time inversions and show that they are nontrivially different than the conventional ones, thus

  5. Health Belief Model and Reasoned Action Theory in Predicting Water Saving Behaviors in Yazd, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Morowatisharifabad, Mohammad Ali; Momayyezi, Mahdieh; Ghaneian, Mohammad Taghi

    2012-01-01

    Background: People's behaviors and intentions about healthy behaviors depend on their beliefs, values, and knowledge about the issue. Various models of health education are used in deter¬mining predictors of different healthy behaviors but their efficacy in cultural behaviors, such as water saving behaviors, are not studied. The study was conducted to explain water saving beha¬viors in Yazd, Iran on the basis of Health Belief Model and Reasoned Action Theory. Methods: The cross-sectional study used random cluster sampling to recruit 200 heads of households to collect the data. The survey questionnaire was tested for its content validity and reliability. Analysis of data included descriptive statistics, simple correlation, hierarchical multiple regression. Results: Simple correlations between water saving behaviors and Reasoned Action Theory and Health Belief Model constructs were statistically significant. Health Belief Model and Reasoned Action Theory constructs explained 20.80% and 8.40% of the variances in water saving beha-viors, respectively. Perceived barriers were the strongest Predictor. Additionally, there was a sta¬tistically positive correlation between water saving behaviors and intention. Conclusion: In designing interventions aimed at water waste prevention, barriers of water saving behaviors should be addressed first, followed by people's attitude towards water saving. Health Belief Model constructs, with the exception of perceived severity and benefits, is more powerful than is Reasoned Action Theory in predicting water saving behavior and may be used as a framework for educational interventions aimed at improving water saving behaviors. PMID:24688927

  6. Integrating random matrix theory predictions with short-time dynamical effects in chaotic systems.

    PubMed

    Smith, A Matthew; Kaplan, Lev

    2010-07-01

    We discuss a modification to random matrix theory eigenstate statistics that systematically takes into account the nonuniversal short-time behavior of chaotic systems. The method avoids diagonalization of the Hamiltonian; instead it requires only knowledge of short-time dynamics for a chaotic system or ensemble of similar systems. Standard random matrix theory and semiclassical predictions are recovered in the limits of zero Ehrenfest time and infinite Heisenberg time, respectively. As examples, we discuss wave-function autocorrelations and cross correlations, and show that significant improvement in accuracy is obtained for simple chaotic systems where comparison can be made with brute-force diagonalization. The accuracy of the method persists even when the short-time dynamics of the system or ensemble is known only in a classical approximation. Further improvement in the rate of convergence is obtained when the method is combined with the correlation function bootstrapping approach introduced previously.

  7. Predicting path from undulations for C. elegans using linear and nonlinear resistive force theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keaveny, Eric E.; Brown, André E. X.

    2017-04-01

    A basic issue in the physics of behaviour is the mechanical relationship between an animal and its surroundings. The model nematode C. elegans provides an excellent platform to explore this relationship due to its anatomical simplicity. Nonetheless, the physics of nematode crawling, in which the worm undulates its body to move on a wet surface, is not completely understood and the mathematical models often used to describe this phenomenon are empirical. We confirm that linear resistive force theory, one such empirical model, is effective at predicting a worm’s path from its sequence of body postures for forward crawling, reversing, and turning and for a broad range of different behavioural phenotypes observed in mutant worms. Worms recently isolated from the wild have a higher effective drag anisotropy than the laboratory-adapted strain N2 and most mutant strains. This means the wild isolates crawl with less surface slip, perhaps reflecting more efficient gaits. The drag anisotropies required to fit the observed locomotion data (70  ±  28 for the wild isolates) are significantly larger than the values measured by directly dragging worms along agar surfaces (3–10 in Rabets et al (2014 Biophys. J. 107 1980–7)). A proposed nonlinear extension of the resistive force theory model also provides accurate predictions, but does not resolve the discrepancy between the parameters required to achieve good path prediction and the experimentally measured parameters. We confirm that linear resistive force theory provides a good effective model of worm crawling that can be used in applications such as whole-animal simulations and advanced tracking algorithms, but that the nature of the physical interaction between worms and their most commonly studied laboratory substrate remains unresolved.

  8. A Rapid Distortion Theory modified turbulence spectra for semi-analytical airfoil noise prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santana, Leandro D.; Christophe, Julien; Schram, Christophe; Desmet, Wim

    2016-11-01

    This paper proposes an implementation of the Rapid Distortion Theory, for the prediction of the noise resulting from the interaction of an airfoil with incoming turbulence. In the framework of the semi-analytical modeling strategy known as Amiet's theory, this interaction mechanism is treated in a linearized form where the airfoil thickness, camber and angle of attack are assumed negligible, leading to a frozen turbulence description of the incident gust. Important semi-analytical developments have been proposed in the literature to improve the modeling of the gust-airfoil interaction accounting for parallel and skewed gusts, non-rectangular linearized airfoil shapes or blade tip effects. This work is rather focused on the investigation of the distortion of turbulence that occurs in the vicinity of the airfoil leading edge, compared with Rapid Distortion Theory, where main results are briefly reminded in this paper. The main contribution of this work is a detailed experimental investigation of the evolution of turbulent quantities relevant to noise production, performed in the close vicinity of the airfoil leading edge subjected to grid turbulence, by means of stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry measurements. The results indicate that the distortion effects are concentrated in a narrow region close to the stagnation point of the leading edge, with dimension of the order of its radius of curvature. Additionally, it is shown that the turbulence intensity grows significantly as the flow approaches the airfoil leading-edge. Based on those results, a modified turbulence spectrum is proposed to describe the incoming turbulence in Amiet's theory. The sound predictions show a significantly better match with acoustic measurements than using the original turbulence model.

  9. A compact theory of magnetic nerve stimulation: predicting how to aim

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background A compact theory that predicts quantitatively when and where magnetic neurostimulation will occur is needed as a guide to therapy, ideally providing a single equation that defines the target volume of tissue excited by single or dual coils. Methods A first-principles analysis of magnetic stimulation incorporating a simplified description of electromagnetic fields and a simplified cable theory of the axon yields a mathematical synthesis predicting how to aim. Results Nerve stimulation produced by a single circular coil having one or more closely packed turns occurs in donut shaped volume of tissue beneath the coil. Axons spanning several millimeters are the sites of magnetic stimulation. The sites of maximal transmembrane depolarization in nerve fibers correspond to points where the axons enter or exit this volume of magnetically induced voltage and current. The axonal membrane at one end is depolarized locally during the rising phase of current in the coil. The axonal membrane at the opposite end is depolarized locally during the falling phase of current in the coil. Penetration depths of several centimeters from the skin surface or approximately one to two coil radii are practical. With two coils placed in a figure-of-eight configuration the separate clockwise and counterclockwise currents generate magnetic fields that add, producing maximal stimulation of a spindle shaped volume, centered at a depth of one-third to one-half coil radius from the body surface. Conclusions This condensed synthesis of electromagnetic theory and cable theories of axon physiology provides a partial solution to the targeting problem in peripheral and in transcranial magnetic stimulation. PMID:24885299

  10. Identity and the theory of planned behavior: predicting maintenance of volunteering after three years.

    PubMed

    Marta, Elena; Manzi, Claudia; Pozzi, Maura; Vignoles, Vivian Laurance

    2014-01-01

    Is identity an important predictor of social behavior? The present longitudinal study is focused on identity in order to understand why people continue to volunteer over an extended period of time. The theory of planned behavior and the role identity model of volunteering are used as theoretical framework. Two hundred thirty Italian volunteers were sampled and followed for 3 years. We analyzed functions of role identity as a volunteer. Results showed a significant impact of role identity in predicting volunteer performance after 3 years, mediated through behavioral intentions. Role identity fully mediated the relationships between behavioral intention and attitude, social norms, past behavior and parental modelling.

  11. Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

    1978-01-01

    On physical grounds it is suggested that the polar field strength of the sun near a solar minimum is closely related to the solar activity of the following cycle. Four methods of estimating the polar magnetic field strength of the sun near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of the yearly mean sunspot number of cycle 21 at solar maximum of 140 + or - 20. This estimate may be considered a first-order attempt to predict the cycle activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.

  12. Dissolved oxygen prediction using a possibility theory based fuzzy neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Usman T.; Valeo, Caterina

    2016-06-01

    A new fuzzy neural network method to predict minimum dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in a highly urbanised riverine environment (in Calgary, Canada) is proposed. The method uses abiotic factors (non-living, physical and chemical attributes) as inputs to the model, since the physical mechanisms governing DO in the river are largely unknown. A new two-step method to construct fuzzy numbers using observations is proposed. Then an existing fuzzy neural network is modified to account for fuzzy number inputs and also uses possibility theory based intervals to train the network. Results demonstrate that the method is particularly well suited to predicting low DO events in the Bow River. Model performance is compared with a fuzzy neural network with crisp inputs, as well as with a traditional neural network. Model output and a defuzzification technique are used to estimate the risk of low DO so that water resource managers can implement strategies to prevent the occurrence of low DO.

  13. Resource allocation for efficient environmental management.

    PubMed

    McCarthy, Michael A; Thompson, Colin J; Hauser, Cindy; Burgman, Mark A; Possingham, Hugh P; Moir, Melinda L; Tiensin, Thanawat; Gilbert, Marius

    2010-10-01

    Environmental managers must decide how to invest available resources. Researchers have previously determined how to allocate conservation resources among regions, design nature reserves, allocate funding to species conservation programs, design biodiversity surveys and monitoring programs, manage species and invest in greenhouse gas mitigation schemes. However, these issues have not been addressed with a unified theory. Furthermore, uncertainty is prevalent in environmental management, and needs to be considered to manage risks. We present a theory for optimal environmental management, synthesizing previous approaches to the topic and incorporating uncertainty. We show that the theory solves a diverse range of important problems of resource allocation, including distributing conservation resources among the world's biodiversity hotspots; surveillance to detect the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus in Thailand; and choosing survey methods for the insect order Hemiptera. Environmental management decisions are similar to decisions about financial investments, with trade-offs between risk and reward.

  14. Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco; Lunkeit, Frank

    2016-04-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(10^5 ) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO_2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  15. Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco; Lunkeit, Frank

    2017-02-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(10^5) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO_2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  16. Investigation of the Jet Noise Prediction Theory and Application Utilizing the PAO Formulation. [mathematical model for calculating noise radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1973-01-01

    Application of the Phillips theory to engineering calculations of rocket and high speed jet noise radiation is reported. Presented are a detailed derivation of the theory, the composition of the numerical scheme, and discussions of the practical problems arising in the application of the present noise prediction method. The present method still contains some empirical elements, yet it provides a unified approach in the prediction of sound power, spectrum, and directivity.

  17. Prediction of the homogeneous droplet nucleation by the density gradient theory and PC-SAFT equation of state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Planková, Barbora; Hrubý, Jan; Vinš, Václav

    2013-05-01

    We combined the density gradient theory (DGT) with the PC-SAFT and Peng-Robinson equations of state to model the homogeneous droplet nucleation and compared it to the classical nucleation theory (CNT) and experimental data. We also consider the effect of capillary waves on the surface tension. DGT predicts nucleation rates smaller than the CNT and slightly improves the temperature-dependent deviation of the predicted and experimental nucleation rates.

  18. Applying psychological theory to evidence-based clinical practice: identifying factors predictive of taking intra-oral radiographs.

    PubMed

    Bonetti, Debbie; Pitts, Nigel B; Eccles, Martin; Grimshaw, Jeremy; Johnston, Marie; Steen, Nick; Glidewell, Liz; Thomas, Ruth; Maclennan, Graeme; Clarkson, Jan E; Walker, Anne

    2006-10-01

    This study applies psychological theory to the implementation of evidence-based clinical practice. The first objective was to see if variables from psychological frameworks (developed to understand, predict and influence behaviour) could predict an evidence-based clinical behaviour. The second objective was to develop a scientific rationale to design or choose an implementation intervention. Variables from the Theory of Planned Behaviour, Social Cognitive Theory, Self-Regulation Model, Operant Conditioning, Implementation Intentions and the Precaution Adoption Process were measured, with data collection by postal survey. The primary outcome was the number of intra-oral radiographs taken per course of treatment collected from a central fee claims database. Participants were 214 Scottish General Dental Practitioners. At the theory level, the Theory of Planned Behaviour explained 13% variance in the number of radiographs taken, Social Cognitive Theory explained 7%, Operant Conditioning explained 8%, Implementation Intentions explained 11%. Self-Regulation and Stage Theory did not predict significant variance in radiographs taken. Perceived behavioural control, action planning and risk perception explained 16% of the variance in number of radiographs taken. Knowledge did not predict the number of radiographs taken. The results suggest an intervention targeting predictive psychological variables could increase the implementation of this evidence-based practice, while influencing knowledge is unlikely to do so. Measures which predicted number of radiographs taken also predicted intention to take radiographs, and intention accounted for significant variance in behaviour (adjusted R(2)=5%: F(1,166)=10.28, p<.01), suggesting intention may be a possible proxy for behavioural data when testing an intervention prior to a service-level trial. Since psychological frameworks incorporate methodologies to measure and change component variables, taking a theory-based approach

  19. Information theory, model error, and predictive skill of stochastic models for complex nonlinear systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakis, Dimitrios; Majda, Andrew J.; Horenko, Illia

    2012-10-01

    Many problems in complex dynamical systems involve metastable regimes despite nearly Gaussian statistics with underlying dynamics that is very different from the more familiar flows of molecular dynamics. There is significant theoretical and applied interest in developing systematic coarse-grained descriptions of the dynamics, as well as assessing their skill for both short- and long-range prediction. Clustering algorithms, combined with finite-state processes for the regime transitions, are a natural way to build such models objectively from data generated by either the true model or an imperfect model. The main theme of this paper is the development of new practical criteria to assess the predictability of regimes and the predictive skill of such coarse-grained approximations through empirical information theory in stationary and periodically-forced environments. These criteria are tested on instructive idealized stochastic models utilizing K-means clustering in conjunction with running-average smoothing of the training and initial data for forecasts. A perspective on these clustering algorithms is explored here with independent interest, where improvement in the information content of finite-state partitions of phase space is a natural outcome of low-pass filtering through running averages. In applications with time-periodic equilibrium statistics, recently developed finite-element, bounded-variation algorithms for nonstationary autoregressive models are shown to substantially improve predictive skill beyond standard autoregressive models.

  20. Theory of mind and emotion understanding predict moral development in early childhood.

    PubMed

    Lane, Jonathan D; Wellman, Henry M; Olson, Sheryl L; LaBounty, Jennifer; Kerr, David C R

    2010-11-01

    The current study utilized longitudinal data to investigate how theory of mind (ToM) and emotion understanding (EU) concurrently and prospectively predicted young children's moral reasoning and decision making. One hundred twenty-eight children were assessed on measures of ToM and EU at 3.5 and 5.5 years of age. At 5.5 years, children were also assessed on the quality of moral reasoning and decision making they used to negotiate prosocial moral dilemmas, in which the needs of a story protagonist conflict with the needs of another story character. More sophisticated EU predicted greater use of physical- and material-needs reasoning, and a more advanced ToM predicted greater use of psychological-needs reasoning. Most intriguing, ToM and EU jointly predicted greater use of higher-level acceptance-authority reasoning, which is likely a product of children's increasing appreciation for the knowledge held by trusted adults and children's desire to behave in accordance with social expectations.

  1. Channel Allocation Options.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powers, Robert S.

    The Frequency Allocation Subcommittee of the Coordinating Committee for Cable Communication Systems, Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, was formed to produce a background report on the general problems of frequency allocation and assignments in cable television. The present paper, based on the subcommittee's interim report,…

  2. Predicting Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Spanish Youth with the Theory of Reasoned Action.

    PubMed

    Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia

    2015-06-19

    Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p < .01). The study confirms that alcohol use and driving under the influence of alcohol are highly prevalent in Spanish young people, and some gender differences exist in these behaviors (p < .01). Furthermore, the study confirms the validity of theory of reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs.

  3. Chiral effective field theory predictions for muon capture on deuteron and $^3$He

    SciTech Connect

    Laura E. Marcucci, A. Kievsky, S. Rosati, R. Schiavilla, M. Viviani

    2012-01-01

    The muon-capture reactions {sup 2}H({mu}{sup -}, {nu}{sub {mu}})nn and {sup 3}He({mu}{sup -},{nu}{sub {mu}}){sup 3}H are studied with nuclear strong-interaction potentials and charge-changing weak currents, derived in chiral effective field theory. The low-energy constants (LEC's) c{sub D} and c{sub E}, present in the three-nucleon potential and (c{sub D}) axial-vector current, are constrained to reproduce the A=3 binding energies and the triton Gamow-Teller matrix element. The vector weak current is related to the isovector component of the electromagnetic current via the conserved-vector-current constraint, and the two LEC's entering the contact terms in the latter are constrained to reproduce the A=3 magnetic moments. The muon capture rates on deuteron and {sup 3}He are predicted to be 399 {+-} 3 sec{sup -1} and 1494 {+-} 21 sec{sup -1}, respectively, where the spread accounts for the cutoff sensitivity as well as uncertainties in the LEC's and electroweak radiative corrections. By comparing the calculated and precisely measured rates on {sup 3}He, a value for the induced pseudoscalar form factor is obtained in good agreement with the chiral perturbation theory prediction.

  4. Predicting behavioural responses to novel organisms: state-dependent detection theory.

    PubMed

    Trimmer, Pete C; Ehlman, Sean M; Sih, Andrew

    2017-01-25

    Human activity alters natural habitats for many species. Understanding variation in animals' behavioural responses to these changing environments is critical. We show how signal detection theory can be used within a wider framework of state-dependent modelling to predict behavioural responses to a major environmental change: novel, exotic species. We allow thresholds for action to be a function of reserves, and demonstrate how optimal thresholds can be calculated. We term this framework 'state-dependent detection theory' (SDDT). We focus on behavioural and fitness outcomes when animals continue to use formerly adaptive thresholds following environmental change. In a simple example, we show that exposure to novel animals which appear dangerous-but are actually safe-(e.g. ecotourists) can have catastrophic consequences for 'prey' (organisms that respond as if the new organisms are predators), significantly increasing mortality even when the novel species is not predatory. SDDT also reveals that the effect on reproduction can be greater than the effect on lifespan. We investigate factors that influence the effect of novel organisms, and address the potential for behavioural adjustments (via evolution or learning) to recover otherwise reduced fitness. Although effects of environmental change are often difficult to predict, we suggest that SDDT provides a useful route ahead.

  5. Performance Feedback Processing Is Positively Biased As Predicted by Attribution Theory

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez Buritica, Julia M.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2016-01-01

    A considerable literature on attribution theory has shown that healthy individuals exhibit a positivity bias when inferring the causes of evaluative feedback on their performance. They tend to attribute positive feedback internally (e.g., to their own abilities) but negative feedback externally (e.g., to environmental factors). However, all empirical demonstrations of this bias suffer from at least one of the three following drawbacks: First, participants directly judge explicit causes for their performance. Second, participants have to imagine events instead of experiencing them. Third, participants assess their performance only after receiving feedback and thus differences in baseline assessments cannot be excluded. It is therefore unclear whether the classically reported positivity bias generalizes to setups without these drawbacks. Here, we aimed at establishing the relevance of attributions for decision-making by showing an attribution-related positivity bias in a decision-making task. We developed a novel task, which allowed us to test how participants changed their evaluations in response to positive and negative feedback about performance. Specifically, we used videos of actors expressing different facial emotional expressions. Participants were first asked to evaluate the actors’ credibility in expressing a particular emotion. After this initial rating, participants performed an emotion recognition task and did—or did not—receive feedback on their veridical performance. Finally, participants re-rated the actors’ credibility, which provided a measure of how they changed their evaluations after feedback. Attribution theory predicts that participants change their evaluations of the actors’ credibility toward the positive after receiving positive performance feedback and toward the negative after negative performance feedback. Our results were in line with this prediction. A control condition without feedback showed that correct or incorrect

  6. Cloud Condensation Nuclei Prediction Error from Application of Kohler Theory: Importance for the Aerosol Indirect Effect

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni P.; Nenes, Athanasios; Adams, Peter J.; Seinfeld, John H.

    2007-01-01

    In situ observations of aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the GISS GCM Model II' with an online aerosol simulation and explicit aerosol-cloud interactions are used to quantify the uncertainty in radiative forcing and autoconversion rate from application of Kohler theory. Simulations suggest that application of Koehler theory introduces a 10-20% uncertainty in global average indirect forcing and 2-11% uncertainty in autoconversion. Regionally, the uncertainty in indirect forcing ranges between 10-20%, and 5-50% for autoconversion. These results are insensitive to the range of updraft velocity and water vapor uptake coefficient considered. This study suggests that Koehler theory (as implemented in climate models) is not a significant source of uncertainty for aerosol indirect forcing but can be substantial for assessments of aerosol effects on the hydrological cycle in climatically sensitive regions of the globe. This implies that improvements in the representation of GCM subgrid processes and aerosol size distribution will mostly benefit indirect forcing assessments. Predictions of autoconversion, by nature, will be subject to considerable uncertainty; its reduction may require explicit representation of size-resolved aerosol composition and mixing state.

  7. Internally directed cognition and mindfulness: an integrative perspective derived from predictive and reactive control systems theory

    PubMed Central

    Tops, Mattie; Boksem, Maarten A. S.; Quirin, Markus; IJzerman, Hans; Koole, Sander L.

    2013-01-01

    In the present paper, we will apply the predictive and reactive control systems (PARCS) theory as a framework that integrates competing theories of neural substrates of awareness by describing the “default mode network” (DMN) and anterior insula (AI) as parts of two different behavioral and homeostatic control systems. The DMN, a network that becomes active at rest when there is no external stimulation or task to perform, has been implicated in self-reflective awareness and prospection. By contrast, the AI is associated with awareness and task-related attention. This has led to competing theories stressing the role of the DMN in self-awareness vs. the role of interoceptive and emotional information integration in the AI in awareness of the emotional moment. In PARCS, the respective functions of the DMN and AI in a specific control system explains their association with different qualities of awareness, and how mental states can shift from one state (e.g., prospective self-reflection) to the other (e.g., awareness of the emotional moment) depending on the relative dominance of control systems. These shifts between reactive and predictive control are part of processes that enable the intake of novel information, integration of this novel information within existing knowledge structures, and the creation of a continuous personal context in which novel information can be integrated and understood. As such, PARCS can explain key characteristics of mental states, such as their temporal and spatial focus (e.g., a focus on the here and now vs. the future; a first person vs. a third person perspective). PARCS further relates mental states to brain states and functions, such as activation of the DMN or hemispheric asymmetry in frontal cortical functions. Together, PARCS deepens the understanding of a broad range of mental states, including mindfulness, mind wandering, rumination, autobiographical memory, imagery, and the experience of self. PMID:24904455

  8. Correlated evolution between male ejaculate allocation and female remating behaviour in seed beetles (Bruchidae).

    PubMed

    Katvala, M; Rönn, J L; Arnqvist, G

    2008-03-01

    Sperm competition theory suggests that female remating rate determines the selective regime that dictates the evolution of male ejaculate allocation. To test for correlated evolution between female remating behaviour and male ejaculate traits, we subjected detailed experimental data on female and male reproductive traits in seven-seed beetle species to phylogenetic comparative analyses. The evolution of a larger first ejaculate was positively correlated with the evolution of a more rapid decline in ejaculate size over successive matings. Further, as predicted by theory, an increase in female remating rate correlated with the evolution of larger male testes but smaller ejaculates. However, an increase in female remating was associated with the evolution of a less even allocation of ejaculate resources over successive matings, contrary to classic sperm competition theory. We failed to find any evidence for coevolution between the pattern of male ejaculate allocation and variation in female quality and we conclude that some patterns of correlated evolution are congruent with current theory, whereas some are not. We suggest that this may reflect the fact that much sperm competition theory does not fully incorporate other factors that may affect the evolution of male and female traits, such as trade-offs between ejaculate expenditure and other competing demands and the evolution of resource acquisition.

  9. Undergraduates' intentions to take a second language proficiency test: a comparison of predictions from the theory of planned behavior and social cognitive theory.

    PubMed

    Lin, Bih-Jiau; Chiou, Wen-Bin

    2010-06-01

    English competency has become essential for obtaining a better job or succeeding in higher education in Taiwan. Thus, passing the General English Proficiency Test is important for college students in Taiwan. The current study applied Ajzen's theory of planned behavior and the notions of outcome expectancy and self-efficacy from Bandura's social cognitive theory to investigate college students' intentions to take the General English Proficiency Test. The formal sample consisted of 425 undergraduates (217 women, 208 men; M age = 19.5 yr., SD = 1.3). The theory of planned behavior showed greater predictive ability (R2 = 33%) of intention than the social cognitive theory (R2 = 7%) in regression analysis and made a unique contribution to prediction of actual test-taking behavior one year later in logistic regression. Within-model analyses indicated that subjective norm in theory of planned behavior and outcome expectancy in social cognitive theory are crucial factors in predicting intention. Implications for enhancing undergraduates' intentions to take the English proficiency test are discussed.

  10. Maternal-fetal resource allocation: co-operation and conflict.

    PubMed

    Fowden, A L; Moore, T

    2012-11-01

    Pregnancy is generally a co-operative interaction between mother and fetus in which the evolutionary genetic interests of both benefit from production of healthy offspring. While this view is largely supported by empirical data, Kinship Theory predicts that mother and fetus will disagree over the optimum level of maternal investment that maximises their respective fitnesses. This conflict will be more evident with polyandrous than monogamous mating systems, when resources are scarce and in late gestation when the fetus is growing maximally, particularly if conceptus mass is large relative to maternal mass. As the site of nutrient transfer, the placenta is pivotal in the tug-of-war between mother and fetus over resource allocation. It responds to both fetal signals of nutrient demand and maternal signals of nutrient availability and, by adapting its phenotype, regulates the distribution of available resources. These adaptations involve changes in placental size, morphology, transport characteristics, metabolism and hormone bioavailability. They are mediated by key growth regulatory, endocrine and nutrient supply genes responsive to mismatches between nutrient availability and the fetal genetic drive for growth. Indeed, evolution of genomic imprinting and placental secretion of hormones are believed to have been driven by maternal-fetal conflict over resource allocation. Although many of the specific mechanisms involved still have to be identified, the placenta confers optimal fitness on the offspring for its developmental environment by balancing conflict and cooperation in the allocation of resources through generation of nutrient transport phenotypes specific to the prevailing nutritional conditions and/or fetal genotype.

  11. Deviations from predictions of the metabolic theory of ecology can be explained by violations of assumptions.

    PubMed

    Cassemiro, Fernanda A S; Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre Felizola

    2010-12-01

    The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) is based on models derived from the first principles of thermodynamics and biochemical kinetics. The MTE predicts that the relationship between temperature and species richness of ectotherms should show a specific slope. Testing the validity of this model, however, depends on whether empirical data do not violate assumptions and are obtained within contour conditions. When dealing with richness gradients, the MTE must be empirically tested only for ectothermic organisms at high organization levels and when their body size as well as abundance does not vary with temperature gradients. Here we evaluate whether the magnitude of the deviations in slope expected from the MTE to empirical data for New World amphibians is due to the violations of model assumptions and to lack of generality due to restricting contour conditions. We found that the MTE correctly predicted biodiversity patterns only at higher levels of organization and when assumptions of the basic model were not violated. Approximately 60% of the deviations from the MTE-predicted slope across amphibian families were due to violations of the model assumptions. The hypothesis that richness patterns are a function of environmental temperature is too restrictive and does not take complex environmental and ecological processes into account. However, our results suggest that it may be possible to obtain multiple derivations of the MTE equation if idiosyncrasies in spatial and biological/ecological issues that are essential to understanding biodiversity patterns are considered.

  12. PPSP: prediction of PK-specific phosphorylation site with Bayesian decision theory

    PubMed Central

    Xue, Yu; Li, Ao; Wang, Lirong; Feng, Huanqing; Yao, Xuebiao

    2006-01-01

    Background As a reversible and dynamic post-translational modification (PTM) of proteins, phosphorylation plays essential regulatory roles in a broad spectrum of the biological processes. Although many studies have been contributed on the molecular mechanism of phosphorylation dynamics, the intrinsic feature of substrates specificity is still elusive and remains to be delineated. Results In this work, we present a novel, versatile and comprehensive program, PPSP (Prediction of PK-specific Phosphorylation site), deployed with approach of Bayesian decision theory (BDT). PPSP could predict the potential phosphorylation sites accurately for ~70 PK (Protein Kinase) groups. Compared with four existing tools Scansite, NetPhosK, KinasePhos and GPS, PPSP is more accurate and powerful than these tools. Moreover, PPSP also provides the prediction for many novel PKs, say, TRK, mTOR, SyK and MET/RON, etc. The accuracy of these novel PKs are also satisfying. Conclusion Taken together, we propose that PPSP could be a potentially powerful tool for the experimentalists who are focusing on phosphorylation substrates with their PK-specific sites identification. Moreover, the BDT strategy could also be a ubiquitous approach for PTMs, such as sumoylation and ubiquitination, etc. PMID:16549034

  13. Clinical application of fluctuation dissipation theory - Prediction of heart rate response to spontaneous breathing trial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niestemski, Liang R.; Chen, Man; Prevost, Robert; McRae, Michael; Cholleti, Sharath; Najarro, Gabriel; Buchman, Timothy G.; Deem, Michael W.

    2013-03-01

    Contrary to the traditional view of the healthy physiological state as being a single static state, variation in physiologic variables has more recently been suggested to be a key component of the healthy state. Indeed, aging and disease are characterized by a loss of such variability. We apply the conceptual framework of fluctuation-dissipation theory (FDT) to predict the response to a common clinical intervention from historical fluctuations in physiologic time series data. The non-equilibrium FDT relates the response of a system to a perturbation to natural fluctuations in the stationary state of the system. We seek to understand with the FDT a common clinical perturbation, the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT), in which mechanical ventilation is briefly suspended while the patient breathes freely for a period of time. As a stress upon the heart of the patient, the SBT can be characterized as a perturbation of heart rate dynamics. A non-equilibrium, but steady-state FDT allows us to predict the heart rate recovery after the SBT stress. We show that the responses of groups of similar patients to the spontaneous breathing trial can be predicted by this approach. This mathematical framework may serve as part of the basis for personalized critical care.

  14. The use of the theory of planned behavior to predict engagement in functional behaviors in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Mausbach, Brent T; Moore, Raeanne C; Davine, Taylor; Cardenas, Veronica; Bowie, Christopher R; Ho, Jennifer; Jeste, Dilip V; Patterson, Thomas L

    2013-01-30

    In schizophrenia, low motivation may play a role in the initiation and frequency of functional behaviors. Several reviews support the efficacy of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to predict engagement in various behaviors, but little research has utilized the TPB to explain functional behavior in schizophrenia. This study tested the TPB for predicting prospective engagement in functional behaviors in a sample of 64 individuals with schizophrenia. Participants completed questionnaires assessing their attitudes toward, social norms regarding, perceived behavioral control over, and intention to engage in various functional behaviors during the upcoming week. Follow-up questionnaires assessed engagement in functional behaviors. Zero-order correlations indicated that positive attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioral control were positively correlated with intentions to engage in functional behaviors. In turn, intentions were positively correlated with engagement in functional behaviors. Using path analysis, social norms and control were significantly related to intentions, which in turn predicted greater engagement in functional behaviors. Results suggest that patients with schizophrenia make reasoned decisions for or against engaging in functional behaviors. Skills training interventions that also target components of the TPB may be effective for increasing motivation to engage in learned behaviors.

  15. Statistical estimation of statistical mechanical models: helix-coil theory and peptide helicity prediction.

    PubMed

    Schmidler, Scott C; Lucas, Joseph E; Oas, Terrence G

    2007-12-01

    Analysis of biopolymer sequences and structures generally adopts one of two approaches: use of detailed biophysical theoretical models of the system with experimentally-determined parameters, or largely empirical statistical models obtained by extracting parameters from large datasets. In this work, we demonstrate a merger of these two approaches using Bayesian statistics. We adopt a common biophysical model for local protein folding and peptide configuration, the helix-coil model. The parameters of this model are estimated by statistical fitting to a large dataset, using prior distributions based on experimental data. L(1)-norm shrinkage priors are applied to induce sparsity among the estimated parameters, resulting in a significantly simplified model. Formal statistical procedures for evaluating support in the data for previously proposed model extensions are presented. We demonstrate the advantages of this approach including improved prediction accuracy and quantification of prediction uncertainty, and discuss opportunities for statistical design of experiments. Our approach yields a 39% improvement in mean-squared predictive error over the current best algorithm for this problem. In the process we also provide an efficient recursive algorithm for exact calculation of ensemble helicity including sidechain interactions, and derive an explicit relation between homo- and heteropolymer helix-coil theories and Markov chains and (non-standard) hidden Markov models respectively, which has not appeared in the literature previously.

  16. Multiparametric MRI Characterization and Prediction in Autism Spectrum Disorder Using Graph Theory and Machine Learning

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Yongxia; Yu, Fang; Duong, Timothy

    2014-01-01

    This study employed graph theory and machine learning analysis of multiparametric MRI data to improve characterization and prediction in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Data from 127 children with ASD (13.5±6.0 years) and 153 age- and gender-matched typically developing children (14.5±5.7 years) were selected from the multi-center Functional Connectome Project. Regional gray matter volume and cortical thickness increased, whereas white matter volume decreased in ASD compared to controls. Small-world network analysis of quantitative MRI data demonstrated decreased global efficiency based on gray matter cortical thickness but not with functional connectivity MRI (fcMRI) or volumetry. An integrative model of 22 quantitative imaging features was used for classification and prediction of phenotypic features that included the autism diagnostic observation schedule, the revised autism diagnostic interview, and intelligence quotient scores. Among the 22 imaging features, four (caudate volume, caudate-cortical functional connectivity and inferior frontal gyrus functional connectivity) were found to be highly informative, markedly improving classification and prediction accuracy when compared with the single imaging features. This approach could potentially serve as a biomarker in prognosis, diagnosis, and monitoring disease progression. PMID:24922325

  17. The role of descriptive norm within the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean Americans' exercise behavior.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hyo

    2011-08-01

    There are few studies investigating psychosocial mechanisms in Korean Americans' exercise behavior. The present study tested the usefulness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean American's exercise behavior and whether the descriptive norm (i.e., perceptions of what others do) improved the predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior. Using a retrospective design and self-report measures, web-survey responses from 198 Korean-American adults were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses. The theory of planned behavior constructs accounted for 31% of exercise behavior and 43% of exercise intention. Intention and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of exercise behavior. Although the descriptive norm did not augment the theory of planned behavior, all original constructs--attitude, injunctive norm (a narrow definition of subjective norm), and perceived behavioral control--statistically significantly predicted leisure-time physical activity intention. Future studies should consider random sampling, prospective design, and objective measures of physical activity.

  18. Significance of vapor phase chemical reactions on CVD rates predicted by chemically frozen and local thermochemical equilibrium boundary layer theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gokoglu, Suleyman A.

    1988-01-01

    This paper investigates the role played by vapor-phase chemical reactions on CVD rates by comparing the results of two extreme theories developed to predict CVD mass transport rates in the absence of interfacial kinetic barrier: one based on chemically frozen boundary layer and the other based on local thermochemical equilibrium. Both theories consider laminar convective-diffusion boundary layers at high Reynolds numbers and include thermal (Soret) diffusion and variable property effects. As an example, Na2SO4 deposition was studied. It was found that gas phase reactions have no important role on Na2SO4 deposition rates and on the predictions of the theories. The implications of the predictions of the two theories to other CVD systems are discussed.

  19. A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory.

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, J. D.; Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Storlie, Curtis B. (North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC)

    2006-10-01

    Evidence theory provides an alternative to probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions that derives from epistemic uncertainty in model inputs, where the descriptor epistemic is used to indicate uncertainty that derives from a lack of knowledge with respect to the appropriate values to use for various inputs to the model. The potential benefit, and hence appeal, of evidence theory is that it allows a less restrictive specification of uncertainty than is possible within the axiomatic structure on which probability theory is based. Unfortunately, the propagation of an evidence theory representation for uncertainty through a model is more computationally demanding than the propagation of a probabilistic representation for uncertainty, with this difficulty constituting a serious obstacle to the use of evidence theory in the representation of uncertainty in predictions obtained from computationally intensive models. This presentation describes and illustrates a sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory. Preliminary trials indicate that the presented strategy can be used to propagate uncertainty representations based on evidence theory in analysis situations where naive sampling-based (i.e., unsophisticated Monte Carlo) procedures are impracticable due to computational cost.

  20. Modelling ADHD: A review of ADHD theories through their predictions for computational models of decision-making and reinforcement learning.

    PubMed

    Ziegler, Sigurd; Pedersen, Mads L; Mowinckel, Athanasia M; Biele, Guido

    2016-12-01

    Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is characterized by altered decision-making (DM) and reinforcement learning (RL), for which competing theories propose alternative explanations. Computational modelling contributes to understanding DM and RL by integrating behavioural and neurobiological findings, and could elucidate pathogenic mechanisms behind ADHD. This review of neurobiological theories of ADHD describes predictions for the effect of ADHD on DM and RL as described by the drift-diffusion model of DM (DDM) and a basic RL model. Empirical studies employing these models are also reviewed. While theories often agree on how ADHD should be reflected in model parameters, each theory implies a unique combination of predictions. Empirical studies agree with the theories' assumptions of a lowered DDM drift rate in ADHD, while findings are less conclusive for boundary separation. The few studies employing RL models support a lower choice sensitivity in ADHD, but not an altered learning rate. The discussion outlines research areas for further theoretical refinement in the ADHD field.

  1. Constructing gene co-expression networks and predicting functions of unknown genes by random matrix theory

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Feng; Yang, Yunfeng; Zhong, Jianxin; Gao, Haichun; Khan, Latifur; Thompson, Dorothea K; Zhou, Jizhong

    2007-01-01

    Background Large-scale sequencing of entire genomes has ushered in a new age in biology. One of the next grand challenges is to dissect the cellular networks consisting of many individual functional modules. Defining co-expression networks without ambiguity based on genome-wide microarray data is difficult and current methods are not robust and consistent with different data sets. This is particularly problematic for little understood organisms since not much existing biological knowledge can be exploited for determining the threshold to differentiate true correlation from random noise. Random matrix theory (RMT), which has been widely and successfully used in physics, is a powerful approach to distinguish system-specific, non-random properties embedded in complex systems from random noise. Here, we have hypothesized that the universal predictions of RMT are also applicable to biological systems and the correlation threshold can be determined by characterizing the correlation matrix of microarray profiles using random matrix theory. Results Application of random matrix theory to microarray data of S. oneidensis, E. coli, yeast, A. thaliana, Drosophila, mouse and human indicates that there is a sharp transition of nearest neighbour spacing distribution (NNSD) of correlation matrix after gradually removing certain elements insider the matrix. Testing on an in silico modular model has demonstrated that this transition can be used to determine the correlation threshold for revealing modular co-expression networks. The co-expression network derived from yeast cell cycling microarray data is supported by gene annotation. The topological properties of the resulting co-expression network agree well with the general properties of biological networks. Computational evaluations have showed that RMT approach is sensitive and robust. Furthermore, evaluation on sampled expression data of an in silico modular gene system has showed that under-sampled expressions do not affect the

  2. Long-term prediction test procedure for most ICs, based on linear response theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litovchenko, V.; Ivakhnenko, I.

    1991-01-01

    Experimentally, thermal annealing is known to be a factor which enables a number of different integrated circuits (IC's) to recover their operating characteristics after suffering radiation damage in the space radiation environment; thus, decreasing and limiting long term cumulative total-dose effects. This annealing is also known to be accelerated at elevated temperatures both during and after irradiation. Linear response theory (LRT) was applied, and a linear response function (LRF) to predict the radiation/annealing response of sensitive parameters of IC's for long term (several months or years) exposure to the space radiation environment were constructed. Compressing the annealing process from several years in orbit to just a few hours or days in the laboratory is achieved by subjecting the IC to elevated temperatures or by increasing the typical spaceflight dose rate by several orders of magnitude for simultaneous radiation/annealing only. The accomplishments are as follows: (1) the test procedure to make predictions of the radiation response was developed; (2) the calculation of the shift in the threshold potential due to the charge distribution in the oxide was written; (3) electron tunneling processes from the bulk Si to the oxide region in an MOS IC were estimated; (4) in order to connect the experimental annealing data to the theoretical model, constants of the model of the basic annealing process were established; (5) experimental data obtained at elevated temperatures were analyzed; (6) time compression and reliability of predictions for the long term region were shown; (7) a method to compress test time and to make predictions of response for the nonlinear region was proposed; and (8) nonlinearity of the LRF with respect to log(t) was calculated theoretically from a model.

  3. Can the theory of critical distances predict the failure of shape memory alloys?

    PubMed

    Kasiri, Saeid; Kelly, Daniel J; Taylor, David

    2011-06-01

    Components made from shape memory alloys (SMAs) such as nitinol often fail from stress concentrations and defects such as notches and cracks. It is shown here for the first time that these failures can be predicted using the theory of critical distances (TCDs), a method which has previously been used to study fracture and fatigue in other materials. The TCD uses the stress at a certain distance ahead of the notch to predict the failure of the material due to the stress concentration. The critical distance is believed to be a material property which is related to the microstructure of the material. The TCD is simply applied to a linear model of the material without the need to model the complication of its non-linear behaviour. The non-linear behaviour of the material at fracture is represented in the critical stress. The effect of notches and short cracks on the fracture of SMA NiTi was studied by analysing experimental data from the literature. Using a finite element model with elastic material behaviour, it is shown that the TCD can predict the effect of crack length and notch geometry on the critical stress and stress intensity for fracture, with prediction errors of less than 5%. The value of the critical distance obtained for this material was L = 90 μm; this may be related to its grain size. The effects of short cracks on stress intensity were studied. It was shown that the same value of the critical distance (L = 90 μm) could estimate the experimental data for both notches and short cracks.

  4. A predictive theory for elastic scattering and recoil of protons from 4He

    DOE PAGES

    Hupin, Guillaume; Quaglioni, Sofia; Navratil, Petr

    2014-12-08

    Low-energy cross sections for elastic scattering and recoil of protons from 4He nuclei (also known as α particles) are calculated directly by solving the Schrodinger equation for five nucleons interacting through accurate two- and three-nucleon forces derived within the framework of chiral effective field theory. Precise knowledge of these processes at various proton backscattering/recoil angles and energies is needed for the ion-beam analysis of numerous materials, from the surface layers of solids, to thin films, to fusion-reactor materials. Indeed, the same elastic scattering process, in two different kinematic configurations, can be used to probe the concentrations and depth profiles ofmore » either hydrogen or helium. Furthermore, we compare our results to available experimental data and show that direct calculations with modern nuclear potentials can help to resolve remaining inconsistencies among data sets and can be used to predict these cross sections when measurements are not available.« less

  5. A predictive theory for elastic scattering and recoil of protons from 4He

    SciTech Connect

    Hupin, Guillaume; Quaglioni, Sofia; Navratil, Petr

    2014-12-08

    Low-energy cross sections for elastic scattering and recoil of protons from 4He nuclei (also known as α particles) are calculated directly by solving the Schrodinger equation for five nucleons interacting through accurate two- and three-nucleon forces derived within the framework of chiral effective field theory. Precise knowledge of these processes at various proton backscattering/recoil angles and energies is needed for the ion-beam analysis of numerous materials, from the surface layers of solids, to thin films, to fusion-reactor materials. Indeed, the same elastic scattering process, in two different kinematic configurations, can be used to probe the concentrations and depth profiles of either hydrogen or helium. Furthermore, we compare our results to available experimental data and show that direct calculations with modern nuclear potentials can help to resolve remaining inconsistencies among data sets and can be used to predict these cross sections when measurements are not available.

  6. Unsaturated consolidation theory for the prediction of long-term municipal solid waste landfill settlement.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chia-Nan; Chen, Rong-Her; Chen, Kuo-Sheng

    2006-02-01

    The understanding of long-term landfill settlement is important for landfill design and rehabilitation. However, suitable models that can consider both the mechanical and biodecomposition mechanisms in predicting the long-term landfill settlement are generally not available. In this paper, a model based on unsaturated consolidation theory and considering the biodegradation process is introduced to simulate the landfill settlement behaviour. The details of problem formulations and the derivation of the solution for the formulated differential equation of gas pressure are presented. A step-by-step analytical procedure employing this approach for estimating settlement is proposed. The proposed model can generally model the typical features of short-term and long-term behaviour. The proposed model also yields results that are comparable with the field measurements.

  7. Predictive models based on sensitivity theory and their application to practical shielding problems

    SciTech Connect

    Bhuiyan, S.I.; Roussin, R.W.; Lucius, J.L.; Bartine, D.E.

    1983-01-01

    Two new calculational models based on the use of cross-section sensitivity coefficients have been devised for calculating radiation transport in relatively simple shields. The two models, one an exponential model and the other a power model, have been applied, together with the traditional linear model, to 1- and 2-m-thick concrete-slab problems in which the water content, reinforcing-steel content, or composition of the concrete was varied. Comparing the results obtained with the three models with those obtained from exact one-dimensional discrete-ordinates transport calculations indicates that the exponential model, named the BEST model (for basic exponential shielding trend), is a particularly promising predictive tool for shielding problems dominated by exponential attenuation. When applied to a deep-penetration sodium problem, the BEST model also yields better results than do calculations based on second-order sensitivity theory.

  8. Point-to-point connectivity prediction in porous media using percolation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavagh-Mohammadi, Behnam; Masihi, Mohsen; Ganjeh-Ghazvini, Mostafa

    2016-10-01

    The connectivity between two points in porous media is important for evaluating hydrocarbon recovery in underground reservoirs or toxic migration in waste disposal. For example, the connectivity between a producer and an injector in a hydrocarbon reservoir impact the fluid dispersion throughout the system. The conventional approach, flow simulation, is computationally very expensive and time consuming. Alternative method employs percolation theory. Classical percolation approach investigates the connectivity between two lines (representing the wells) in 2D cross sectional models whereas we look for the connectivity between two points (representing the wells) in 2D aerial models. In this study, site percolation is used to determine the fraction of permeable regions connected between two cells at various occupancy probabilities and system sizes. The master curves of mean connectivity and its uncertainty are then generated by finite size scaling. The results help to predict well-to-well connectivity without need to any further simulation.

  9. Bifurcation of resistive wall mode dynamics predicted by magnetohydrodynamic-kinetic hybrid theory

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, S. X.; Wang, Z. X.; Wang, S.; Hao, G. Z. Song, X. M.; Wang, A. K.; Liu, Y. Q.

    2015-09-15

    The magnetohydrodynamic-kinetic hybrid theory has been extensively and successfully applied for interpreting experimental observations of macroscopic, low frequency instabilities, such as the resistive wall mode, in fusion plasmas. In this work, it is discovered that an analytic version of the hybrid formulation predicts a bifurcation of the mode dynamics while varying certain physical parameters of the plasma, such as the thermal particle collisionality or the ratio of the thermal ion to electron temperatures. This bifurcation can robustly occur under reasonably large parameter spaces as well as with different assumptions, for instance, on the particle collision model. Qualitatively similar bifurcation features are also observed in full toroidal computations presented in this work, based on a non-perturbative hybrid formulation.

  10. A comparison of airborne wake vortex detection measurements with values predicted from potential theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, Eric C.

    1991-01-01

    An analysis of flight measurements made near a wake vortex was conducted to explore the feasibility of providing a pilot with useful wake avoidance information. The measurements were made with relatively low cost flow and motion sensors on a light airplane flying near the wake vortex of a turboprop airplane weighing approximately 90000 lbs. Algorithms were developed which removed the response of the airplane to control inputs from the total airplane response and produced parameters which were due solely to the flow field of the vortex. These parameters were compared with values predicted by potential theory. The results indicated that the presence of the vortex could be detected by a combination of parameters derived from the simple sensors. However, the location and strength of the vortex cannot be determined without additional and more accurate sensors.

  11. Miedema Calculator: A thermodynamic platform for predicting formation enthalpies of alloys within framework of Miedema's Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, R. F.; Zhang, S. H.; He, Z. J.; Jing, J.; Sheng, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    The theoretical background and implementation of "Miedema Calculator", a thermodynamic platform for predicting formation enthalpies of various alloys within framework of Miedema's theory, is summarized and presented. Several user-friendly interfaces are designed for the following major functional modules, i.e. the formation enthalpies of binary intermetallic compounds based on the original Miedema's model and two more improved ones, the chemical, elastic and structural enthalpies of solid solutions, the formation enthalpies of amorphous alloys, the volume corrections upon alloying, and the formation enthalpies of ternary alloys based on various geometrical models. Various models and methods have been justified and implemented into the platform together with the unified model parameters and properties for each element as a basic database. A set of critical tests and evaluations have been performed on each module, providing its efficiency and validation for a fast screening of thermodynamic properties of various alloys.

  12. Tyre rolling kinematics and prediction of tyre forces and moments: part I - theory and method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oertel, Christian; Wei, Yintao

    2012-11-01

    A new method to describe tyre rolling kinematics and how to calculate tyre forces and moments is presented. The Lagrange-Euler method is used to calculate the velocity and contact deformation of a tyre structure under large deformation. The calculation of structure deformation is based on the Lagrange method, while the Euler method is used to analyse the deformation and forces in the contact area. The method to predict tyre forces and moments is built using kinematic theory and nonlinear finite element analysis. A detailed analysis of the tyre tangential contact velocity and the relationships between contact forces, contact areas, lateral forces, and yaw and camber angles has been performed for specific tyres. Research on the parametric sensitivity of tyre lateral forces and self-aligning torque on tread stiffness and friction coefficients is carried out in the second part of this paper.

  13. Metabolic theory and taxonomic identity predict nutrient recycling in a diverse food web

    PubMed Central

    Allgeier, Jacob Edward; Wenger, Seth J.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Layman, Craig A.

    2015-01-01

    Reconciling the degree to which ecological processes are generalizable among taxa and ecosystems, or contingent on the identity of interacting species, remains a critical challenge in ecology. Ecological stoichiometry (EST) and metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) are theoretical approaches used to evaluate how consumers mediate nutrient dynamics and energy flow through ecosystems. Recent theoretical work has explored the utility of these theories, but empirical tests in species-rich ecological communities remain scarce. Here we use an unprecedented dataset collected from fishes and dominant invertebrates (n = 900) in a diverse subtropical coastal marine community (50 families, 72 genera, 102 species; body mass range: 0.04–2,597 g) to test the utility of EST and MTE in predicting excretion rates of nitrogen (EN), phosphorus (EP), and their ratio (ENP). Body mass explained a large amount of the variation in EN and EP but not ENP. Strong evidence in support of the MTE 3/4 allometric scaling coefficient was found for EP, and for EN only after accounting for variation in excretion rates among taxa. In all cases, including taxonomy in models substantially improved model performance, highlighting the importance of species identity for this ecosystem function. Body nutrient content and trophic position explained little of the variation in EN, EP, or ENP, indicating limited applicability of basic predictors of EST. These results highlight the overriding importance of MTE for predicting nutrient flow through organisms, but emphasize that these relationships still fall short of explaining the unique effects certain species can have on ecological processes. PMID:25877152

  14. Life history trade-offs and evidence for hierarchical resource allocation in two monocarpic perennials.

    PubMed

    Cao, G-X; Worley, A C

    2013-01-01

    The evolution of floral display is thought to be constrained by trade-offs between the size and number of flowers; however, empirical evidence for the trade-off is inconsistent. We examined evidence for trade-offs and hierarchical allocation of resources within and between two populations each of the monocarpic perennials, Cardiocrinum cordatum and C. giganteum. Within all populations, flower size-number trade-offs were evident after accounting for variation in plant size. In addition, variation in flower size explained much variation in flower-level allocation to attraction, and female and male function, a pattern consistent with hierarchical allocation. However, between population differences in flower size (C. cordatum) and number (C. giganteum) were not consistent with size-number trade-offs or hierarchical allocation. The population-level difference in C. cordatum likely reflects the combined influence of a time lag between initiation and maturation of flowers, and higher light levels in one population. Thus, our study highlights one mechanism that may account for the apparent independence of flower size and number in many studies. A prediction of sex allocation theory was also supported. In C. giganteum: plants from one population invested more mass in pistils and less in stamens than did plants from the other population. Detection of floral trade-offs in Cardiocrinum may be facilitated by monocarpic reproduction, production of a single inflorescence and ease of measuring plant size.

  15. Predicting Quitting-Related Intentions and Smoking Behavior Using Extended Version of the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Problem Behavior Theory among Various Population Subgroups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Chung Gun

    2014-01-01

    This study consists of three sub-studies. Sub-study 1 and 2 attempted to incorporate environmental variables as precursor background variables of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to predict quitting-related intentions among Texas adult smokers and university student smokers, respectively. Sub-study 1 and 2 analyzed different data sets and were…

  16. Surface effect on resonant properties of nanowires predicted by an elastic theory for nanomaterials

    SciTech Connect

    Yao, Yin; Chen, Shaohua E-mail: shchen@LNM.imech.ac.cn

    2015-07-28

    A recently developed continuum theory considering surface effect in nanomaterials is adopted to investigate the resonant properties of nanowires with different boundary conditions in the present paper. The main feature of the adopted theory is that the surface effect in nanomaterials is characterized by the surface energy density of the corresponding bulk materials and the surface relaxation parameter in nanoscale. Based on a fixed-fixed beam model and a cantilever one, the governing equation of resonant frequency for corresponding nanowires is obtained. Numerical calculation of the fundamental resonant frequency is carried out, the result of which is well consistent with the existing numerical ones. Comparing to the result predicted by the conventionally structural dynamics, the resonant frequency of a fixed-fixed nanowire is improved, while that of a cantilever nanowire is weakened due to the surface effect. Both a decreasing characteristic size (height or diameter) and an increasing aspect ratio could further enhance the varying trend of resonant properties for both kinds of nanowires. The present result should be helpful for the design of nano-devices and nanostructures related to nanowires.

  17. Cognitive trait anxiety, situational stress, and mental effort predict shifting efficiency: Implications for attentional control theory.

    PubMed

    Edwards, Elizabeth J; Edwards, Mark S; Lyvers, Michael

    2015-06-01

    Attentional control theory (ACT) predicts that trait anxiety and situational stress interact to impair performance on tasks that involve attentional shifting. The theory suggests that anxious individuals recruit additional effort to prevent shortfalls in performance effectiveness (accuracy), with deficits becoming evident in processing efficiency (the relationship between accuracy and time taken to perform the task). These assumptions, however, have not been systematically tested. The relationship between cognitive trait anxiety, situational stress, and mental effort in a shifting task (Wisconsin Card Sorting Task) was investigated in 90 participants. Cognitive trait anxiety was operationalized using questionnaire scores, situational stress was manipulated through ego threat instructions, and mental effort was measured using a visual analogue scale. Dependent variables were performance effectiveness (an inverse proportion of perseverative errors) and processing efficiency (an inverse proportion of perseverative errors divided by response time on perseverative error trials). The predictors were not associated with performance effectiveness; however, we observed a significant 3-way interaction on processing efficiency. At higher mental effort (+1 SD), higher cognitive trait anxiety was associated with poorer efficiency independently of situational stress, whereas at lower effort (-1 SD), this relationship was highly significant and most pronounced for those in the high-stress condition. These results are important because they provide the first systematic test of the relationship between trait anxiety, situational stress, and mental effort on shifting performance. The data are also consistent with the notion that effort moderates the relationship between anxiety and shifting efficiency, but not effectiveness.

  18. Prediction of intention to continue sport in athlete students: A self-determination theory approach

    PubMed Central

    Keshtidar, Mohammad; Behzadnia, Behzad

    2017-01-01

    Grounded on the self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000) and achievement goals theory (Ames, 1992; Nicholls, 1989), this study via structural equation modelling, predicted intention to continue in sport from goal orientations and motivations among athlete students. 268 athlete students (Mage = 21.9), in Iranian universities completed a multi-section questionnaire tapping the targeted variables. Structural equation modelling (SEM) offered an overall support for the proposed model. The results showed that there are positive relationships between intention to continue in sport and both orientations as well as both motivations. A task-involving orientation emerged as a positive predictor of the autonomous motivation, while an ego-involving orientation was a positive predictor controlled motivation as well as autonomous motivation. The results also support positive paths between autonomous motivation and future intention to participate in sport. Autonomous motivation also was a positive mediator in relationship between task orientation and the intentions. As a conclusion, the implications of the task-involving orientation are discussabled in the light of its importance for the quality and potential maintenance of sport involvement among athlete students. PMID:28178308

  19. Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction: Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, X. C.; Wang, Y. C.; Peng, K. Y.; Bai, Y. L.; Wang, H. T.; Yin, X. F.

    The seismogenic process is nonlinear and irreversible so that the response to loading is different from unloading. This difference reflects the damage of a loaded material. Based on this insight, a new parameter-load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure quantitatively the proximity to rock failure and earthquake more than ten years ago. In the present paper, we review the fundamental concept of LURR, the validation of LURR with experimental and numerical simulation, the retrospective examination of LURR with new cases in different tectonic settings (California, USA, and Kanto region, Japan), the statistics of earthquake prediction in terms of LURR theory and the random distribution of LURR under Poisson's model. Finally we discuss LURR as a parameter to judge the closeness degree to SOC state of the system and the measurement of tidal triggering earthquake.The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) theory was first proposed in 1984 (Yin, 1987). Subsequently, a series of advances were made (Yin and dYin, 1991; Yin, 1993; Yin et al. 1994a, b, 1995; Maruyama, 1995). In this paper, the new results after 1995 are summarized (Yin et al., 1996; Wang et al., 1998a; Zhuang and Yin, 1999).

  20. Application of the protection motivation theory in predicting cigarette smoking among adolescents in China.

    PubMed

    Yan, Yaqiong; Jacques-Tiura, Angela J; Chen, Xinguang; Xie, Nianhua; Chen, Jing; Yang, Niannian; Gong, Jie; Macdonell, Karen Kolmodin

    2014-01-01

    Reducing tobacco use among adolescents in China represents a significant challenge for global tobacco control. Existing behavioral theories developed in the West - such as the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) - may be useful tools to help tackle this challenge. We examined the relationships between PMT factors and self-reported cigarette smoking behavior and intention among a random sample of vocational high school students (N=553) in Wuhan, China. Tobacco-related perceptions were assessed using the PMT Scale for Adolescent Smoking. Among the total sample, 45% had initiated cigarette smoking, and 25% smoked in the past month. Among those who never smoked, 15% indicated being likely or very likely to smoke in a year. Multiple regression modeling analysis indicated the significance of the seven PMT constructs, the four PMT perceptions and the two PMT pathways in predicting intention to smoke and actual smoking behavior. Overall, perceived rewards of smoking, especially intrinsic rewards, were consistently positively related to smoking intentions and behavior, and self-efficacy to avoid smoking was negatively related to smoking. The current study suggests the utility of PMT for further research examining adolescent smoking. PMT-based smoking prevention and clinical smoking cessation intervention programs should focus more on adolescents' perceived rewards from smoking and perceived efficacy of not smoking to reduce their intention to and actual use of tobacco.

  1. Prediction of Charge Mobility in Amorphous Organic Materials through the Application of Hopping Theory.

    PubMed

    Lee, Choongkeun; Waterland, Robert; Sohlberg, Karl

    2011-08-09

    The application of hopping theory to predict charge (hole) mobility in amorphous organic molecular materials is studied in detail. Application is made to amorphous cells of N,N'-diphenyl-N,N'-bis-(3-methylphenylene)-1,1'-diphenyl-4,4'-diamine (TPD), 1,1-bis-(4,4'-diethylaminophenyl)-4,4-diphenyl-1,3,butadinene (DEPB), N4,N4'-di(biphenyl-3-yl)-N4,N4'-diphenylbiphenyl-4,4'-diamine (mBPD), N1,N4-di(naphthalen-1-yl)-N1,N4-diphenylbenzene-1,4-diamine (NNP), and N,N'-bis[9,9-dimethyl-2-fluorenyl]-N,N'-diphenyl-9,9-dimethylfluorene-2,7-diamine (pFFA). Detailed analysis of the computation of each of the parameters in the equations for hopping rate is presented, including studies of their convergence with respect to various numerical approximations. Based on these convergence studies, the most robust methodology is then applied to investigate the dependence of mobility on such parameters as the monomer reorganization energy, the monomer-monomer coupling, and the material density. The results give insight into what will be required to improve the accuracy of predictions of mobility in amorphous organic materials, and what factors should be controlled to develop materials with higher (or lower) charge (hole) mobility.

  2. Error estimates for density-functional theory predictions of surface energy and work function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Waele, Sam; Lejaeghere, Kurt; Sluydts, Michael; Cottenier, Stefaan

    2016-12-01

    Density-functional theory (DFT) predictions of materials properties are becoming ever more widespread. With increased use comes the demand for estimates of the accuracy of DFT results. In view of the importance of reliable surface properties, this work calculates surface energies and work functions for a large and diverse test set of crystalline solids. They are compared to experimental values by performing a linear regression, which results in a measure of the predictable and material-specific error of the theoretical result. Two of the most prevalent functionals, the local density approximation (LDA) and the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof parametrization of the generalized gradient approximation (PBE-GGA), are evaluated and compared. Both LDA and GGA-PBE are found to yield accurate work functions with error bars below 0.3 eV, rivaling the experimental precision. LDA also provides satisfactory estimates for the surface energy with error bars smaller than 10%, but GGA-PBE significantly underestimates the surface energy for materials with a large correlation energy.

  3. A review of predictive nonlinear theories for multiscale modeling of heterogeneous materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matouš, Karel; Geers, Marc G. D.; Kouznetsova, Varvara G.; Gillman, Andrew

    2017-02-01

    Since the beginning of the industrial age, material performance and design have been in the midst of innovation of many disruptive technologies. Today's electronics, space, medical, transportation, and other industries are enriched by development, design and deployment of composite, heterogeneous and multifunctional materials. As a result, materials innovation is now considerably outpaced by other aspects from component design to product cycle. In this article, we review predictive nonlinear theories for multiscale modeling of heterogeneous materials. Deeper attention is given to multiscale modeling in space and to computational homogenization in addressing challenging materials science questions. Moreover, we discuss a state-of-the-art platform in predictive image-based, multiscale modeling with co-designed simulations and experiments that executes on the world's largest supercomputers. Such a modeling framework consists of experimental tools, computational methods, and digital data strategies. Once fully completed, this collaborative and interdisciplinary framework can be the basis of Virtual Materials Testing standards and aids in the development of new material formulations. Moreover, it will decrease the time to market of innovative products.

  4. Applying an extended theory of planned behavior to predicting violations at automated railroad crossings.

    PubMed

    Palat, Blazej; Paran, Françoise; Delhomme, Patricia

    2017-01-01

    Based on an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, Ajzen, 1985, 1991), we conducted surveys in order to explain and predict violations at a railroad crossing, among pedestrians (n=153) and car drivers (n=151). Measures were made with respect to three chronologically related railroad crossing situations that varied in risk level. The situations were described in scenarios and depicted on photographs. The participants were recruited in the suburbs of Paris, at two automated railroad crossings with four half-barriers. We found that the pedestrians had stronger crossing intentions than did car drivers, especially at the more congested crossing of the two under study. For both categories of road users, intentions and the amount of intention variance explained by the extended TPB factors decreased significantly with risk level. In the most dangerous situations, risk-taking was the most unlikely and the least predictable Self-reported past frequency of crossing against safety warning devices was the main predictor of the intention to commit this violation again, especially among males, followed by the attitude and the injunctive norm in favor the violation. Moreover, car drivers were influenced in their crossing intentions by the descriptive norm. The presence of another vehicle on the tracks when the safety warning devices were activated was perceived not as facilitating, but as an additional risk factor. The discussion addresses the importance of taking into account these determinants of violations in conceiving countermeasures. Our findings could be especially useful for conceiving risk-communication campaigns.

  5. Mechanical properties of zirconium alloys and zirconium hydrides predicted from density functional perturbation theory

    DOE PAGES

    Weck, Philippe F.; Kim, Eunja; Tikare, Veena; ...

    2015-10-13

    Here, the elastic properties and mechanical stability of zirconium alloys and zirconium hydrides have been investigated within the framework of density functional perturbation theory. Results show that the lowest-energy cubic Pn-3m with combining macron]m polymorph of δ-ZrH1.5 does not satisfy all the Born requirements for mechanical stability, unlike its nearly degenerate tetragonal P42/mcm polymorph. Elastic moduli predicted with the Voigt–Reuss–Hill approximations suggest that mechanical stability of α-Zr, Zr-alloy and Zr-hydride polycrystalline aggregates is limited by the shear modulus. According to both Pugh's and Poisson's ratios, α-Zr, Zr-alloy and Zr-hydride polycrystalline aggregates can be considered ductile. The Debye temperatures predicted formore » γ-ZrH, δ-ZrH1.5 and ε-ZrH2 are θD = 299.7, 415.6 and 356.9 K, respectively, while θD = 273.6, 284.2, 264.1 and 257.1 K for the α-Zr, Zry-4, ZIRLO and M5 matrices, i.e. suggesting that Zry-4 possesses the highest micro-hardness among Zr matrices.« less

  6. Aqueous acidities of primary benzenesulfonamides: Quantum chemical predictions based on density functional theory and SMD.

    PubMed

    Aidas, Kęstutis; Lanevskij, Kiril; Kubilius, Rytis; Juška, Liutauras; Petkevičius, Daumantas; Japertas, Pranas

    2015-11-05

    Aqueous pK(a) of selected primary benzenesulfonamides are predicted in a systematic manner using density functional theory methods and the SMD solvent model together with direct and proton exchange thermodynamic cycles. Some test calculations were also performed using high-level composite CBS-QB3 approach. The direct scheme generally does not yield a satisfactory agreement between calculated and measured acidities due to a severe overestimation of the Gibbs free energy changes of the gas-phase deprotonation reaction by the used exchange-correlation functionals. The relative pK(a) values calculated using proton exchange method compare to experimental data very well in both qualitative and quantitative terms, with a mean absolute error of about 0.4 pK(a) units. To achieve this accuracy, we find it mandatory to perform geometry optimization of the neutral and anionic species in the gas and solution phases separately, because different conformations are stabilized in these two cases. We have attempted to evaluate the effect of the conformer-averaged free energies in the pK(a) predictions, and the general conclusion is that this procedure is highly too costly as compared with the very small improvement we have gained.

  7. Mechanical properties of zirconium alloys and zirconium hydrides predicted from density functional perturbation theory

    SciTech Connect

    Weck, Philippe F.; Kim, Eunja; Tikare, Veena; Mitchell, John A.

    2015-10-13

    Here, the elastic properties and mechanical stability of zirconium alloys and zirconium hydrides have been investigated within the framework of density functional perturbation theory. Results show that the lowest-energy cubic Pn-3m with combining macron]m polymorph of δ-ZrH1.5 does not satisfy all the Born requirements for mechanical stability, unlike its nearly degenerate tetragonal P42/mcm polymorph. Elastic moduli predicted with the Voigt–Reuss–Hill approximations suggest that mechanical stability of α-Zr, Zr-alloy and Zr-hydride polycrystalline aggregates is limited by the shear modulus. According to both Pugh's and Poisson's ratios, α-Zr, Zr-alloy and Zr-hydride polycrystalline aggregates can be considered ductile. The Debye temperatures predicted for γ-ZrH, δ-ZrH1.5 and ε-ZrH2 are θD = 299.7, 415.6 and 356.9 K, respectively, while θD = 273.6, 284.2, 264.1 and 257.1 K for the α-Zr, Zry-4, ZIRLO and M5 matrices, i.e. suggesting that Zry-4 possesses the highest micro-hardness among Zr matrices.

  8. Predicting adolescent perpetration in cyberbullying: an application of the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Heirman, Wannes; Walrave, Michel

    2012-11-01

    This study aims to contribute to the research field on cyberbullying by offering a comprehensive theoretical framework that helps to predict adolescents' perpetration of cyberbullying. One thousand forty-two pupils from 12 to 18 years old in 30 different Belgian secondary schools participated in two surveys within a three-month interval. Structural equation modeling was used to test whether the overall model of theory of planned behavior (TPB) helps to predict adolescents' self-reported perpetration in cyberbullying. Overall, the present study provides strong support for the theoretical utility of the TPB in cyberbullying research. The model accounted for 44.8% of the variance in adolescents' behavioral intention to cyberbully and 33.2% of the variance in self-reported cyberbullying perpetration. We found a strong positive relationship between adolescents' attitude towards cyberbullying and their behavioral intention to perpetrate it. Perceived behavioral control and subjective norm, the other two TPB-constructs, were also significant albeit relatively less important predictors of adolescents' intention to cyberbully. The finding that adolescents' attitude is the most important predictor of perpetration, entails that prevention and intervention strategies should aim at reducing the perceived acceptability of cyberbullying among adolescents by converting neutral or positive attitudes towards this anti-social behavior into negative evaluations.

  9. Family handedness in three generations predicted by the right shift theory.

    PubMed

    Annett, M

    1979-05-01

    The hand preferences of Open University (OU) students and their relatives, including children, are described. As in earlier series, estimates of heritability are higher for mothers than fathers. There is no evidence of smaller heritability for paternal than maternal grandparents. The distribution of left-handedness in families is examined in the light of predictions of the right shift theory and on the assumption that the shift depends on a single gene. Good agreement is found between the observed and expected numbers of R x R, L x R and L x L families. Predictions are successful for both strict and generous criteria of sinistrality. Generation differences are found between OU students and their parents and between the students and their children. These are discussed from the viewpoint of a possible heterozygote advantage in intelligence. The higher proportion of sinistral children born to sinistral mothers than fathers can be partly accounted for by supposing that the right shift is more effective in females than males.

  10. A disaggregation theory for predicting concentration gradient distributions in heterogeneous flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Borgne, Tanguy; Huck, Peter; Dentz, Marco; Villermaux, Emmanuel

    2016-04-01

    Many transport processes occurring in fluid flows depend on concentration gradients, including a wide range of chemical reactions, such as mixing-driven precipitation, and biological processes, such as chemotaxis. A general framework for predicting the distribution of concentration gradients in heterogeneous flow fields is proposed based on a disaggregation theory. The evolution of concentration fields under the combined action of heterogeneous advection and diffusion is quantified from the analysis of the development and aggregation of elementary lamellar structures, which naturally form under the stretching action of flow fields. Therefore spatial correlations in concentrations can be estimated based on the understanding of the lamellae aggregation process that determine the concentration levels at neighboring spatial locations. Using this principle we quantify the temporal evolution of the concentration gradient Probability Density Functions in heterogeneous Darcy fields for arbitrary Peclet numbers. This approach is shown to provide accurate predictions of concentration gradient distributions for a range of flow systems, including turbulent flows and low Reynolds number porous media flows, for confined and dispersing mixtures.

  11. Temporal epilepsy seizures monitoring and prediction using cross-correlation and chaos theory.

    PubMed

    Haddad, Tahar; Ben-Hamida, Naim; Talbi, Larbi; Lakhssassi, Ahmed; Aouini, Sadok

    2014-01-01

    Temporal seizures due to hippocampal origins are very common among epileptic patients. Presented is a novel seizure prediction approach employing correlation and chaos theories. The early identification of seizure signature allows for various preventive measures to be undertaken. Electro-encephalography signals are spectrally broken down into the following sub-bands: delta; theta; alpha; beta; and gamma. The proposed approach consists of observing a high correlation level between any pair of electrodes for the lower frequencies and a decrease in the Lyapunov index (chaos or entropy) for the higher frequencies. Power spectral density and statistical analysis tools were used to determine threshold levels for the lower frequencies. After studying all five sub-bands, the analysis has revealed that the seizure signature can be extracted from the delta band and the high frequencies. High frequencies are defined as both the gamma band and the ripples occurring within the 60-120 Hz sub-band. To validate the proposed approach, six patients from both sexes and various age groups with temporal epilepsies originating from the hippocampal area were studied using the Freiburg database. An average seizure prediction of 30 min, an anticipation accuracy of 72%, and a false-positive rate of 0% were accomplished throughout 200 h of recording time.

  12. A diffusivity model for predicting VOC diffusion in porous building materials based on fractal theory.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yanfeng; Zhou, Xiaojun; Wang, Dengjia; Song, Cong; Liu, Jiaping

    2015-12-15

    Most building materials are porous media, and the internal diffusion coefficients of such materials have an important influences on the emission characteristics of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The pore structure of porous building materials has a significant impact on the diffusion coefficient. However, the complex structural characteristics bring great difficulties to the model development. The existing prediction models of the diffusion coefficient are flawed and need to be improved. Using scanning electron microscope (SEM) observations and mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) tests of typical porous building materials, this study developed a new diffusivity model: the multistage series-connection fractal capillary-bundle (MSFC) model. The model considers the variable-diameter capillaries formed by macropores connected in series as the main mass transfer paths, and the diameter distribution of the capillary bundles obeys a fractal power law in the cross section. In addition, the tortuosity of the macrocapillary segments with different diameters is obtained by the fractal theory. Mesopores serve as the connections between the macrocapillary segments rather than as the main mass transfer paths. The theoretical results obtained using the MSFC model yielded a highly accurate prediction of the diffusion coefficients and were in a good agreement with the VOC concentration measurements in the environmental test chamber.

  13. Nutrient mediation of behavioral plasticity and resource allocation in a xylem-feeding leafhopper.

    PubMed

    Brodbeck, Brent V; Andersen, Peter C; Mizell, Russell F

    2011-01-01

    Phenotypic plasticity may be critical for nutrient-limited organisms that allocate ingested nutrients to the competing demands of reproduction and survivorship. Leafhoppers that feed on xylem fluid allow assessment of plasticity in response to the constant selective pressure of nutritional inadequacy. We examined feeding behavior (host selection and consumption rates) and nutrient allocation (fecundity, change in body mass and composition) of the xylem fluid-feeding leafhopper Homalodisca vitripennis (Hemiptera:Cicadellidae) on ten genotypes of related Prunus germplasm when adults first seasonally appear, and later during population peaks, to examine the effects of genotypes and season on plasticity of life history and behavioral traits. Behavior and resource allocation to life history traits were both mediated by xylem nutrients, although nutrients impacting behavior differed from those mediating life history. Host selection and consumption varied with genotype between June and July, yet behavior consistently reflected concentrations of dietary glutamine. Resource allocations also increased linearly with nutrient concentrations, but were best correlated to ingested essential amino acids rather than glutamine. Body mass and composition were highly correlated to dietary essential amino acids in June; 6 weeks later, fecundity was instead proportional to essential amino acids. The discrepancy in nutrients which impact behavior versus those mediating life history may explain the weak preference-performance linkage documented for many insects. The demarcation in allocating resources to biomass in June to fecundity in July suggests increased allocation to reproduction during periods of nutrient stress as predicted by the theory of optimal resource allocation; other contributing biotic and abiotic factors are also discussed.

  14. The symbiotic lifestyle and its evolutionary consequences: social monogamy and sex allocation in the hermaphroditic shrimp Lysmata pederseni.

    PubMed

    Baeza, J Antonio

    2010-08-01

    Sex allocation theory predicts female-biased sex allocation for simultaneous hermaphrodites with a monogamous mating system. Mating systems theory predicts that monogamy is advantageous in environments where refuges are discrete, scarce, relatively small, and when predation risk is high outside of these refuges. These predictions were tested with the Caribbean shrimp Lysmata pederseni, a simultaneous hermaphrodite which has an early male phase and lives inside tubes of the sponge Callyspongia vaginalis. This host sponge is a scarce resource that, together with the high predation risk typical of tropical environments, should favor monogamy in the shrimp. Field observations demonstrated that shrimps were frequently encountered as pairs within these tube sponges. Pairs were equally likely to comprise two hermaphrodites or one hermaphrodite and one male. Several of these pairs were observed for long periods of time in the field. Experiments demonstrated that hermaphrodites tolerated other hermaphrodites but not males in their host sponge. These results suggest that pairs of hermaphroditic L. pederseni are socially monogamous; they share the same host individual and might reproduce exclusively with their host partners for long periods of time. Nevertheless, males appeared less likely to establish long-term associations with hermaphrodites as indicated by the rate of their disappearance from their hosts (greater than that of hermaphrodites). Sex allocation was female biased in monogamous hermaphrodites. On average, hermaphrodites invested 34 times more to female than to male reproductive structures. Monogamy and female-biased sex allocation seem to be evolutionary consequences of adopting a symbiotic lifestyle in simultaneous hermaphrodites.

  15. The symbiotic lifestyle and its evolutionary consequences: social monogamy and sex allocation in the hermaphroditic shrimp Lysmata pederseni

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baeza, J. Antonio

    2010-08-01

    Sex allocation theory predicts female-biased sex allocation for simultaneous hermaphrodites with a monogamous mating system. Mating systems theory predicts that monogamy is advantageous in environments where refuges are discrete, scarce, relatively small, and when predation risk is high outside of these refuges. These predictions were tested with the Caribbean shrimp Lysmata pederseni, a simultaneous hermaphrodite which has an early male phase and lives inside tubes of the sponge Callyspongia vaginalis. This host sponge is a scarce resource that, together with the high predation risk typical of tropical environments, should favor monogamy in the shrimp. Field observations demonstrated that shrimps were frequently encountered as pairs within these tube sponges. Pairs were equally likely to comprise two hermaphrodites or one hermaphrodite and one male. Several of these pairs were observed for long periods of time in the field. Experiments demonstrated that hermaphrodites tolerated other hermaphrodites but not males in their host sponge. These results suggest that pairs of hermaphroditic L. pederseni are socially monogamous; they share the same host individual and might reproduce exclusively with their host partners for long periods of time. Nevertheless, males appeared less likely to establish long-term associations with hermaphrodites as indicated by the rate of their disappearance from their hosts (greater than that of hermaphrodites). Sex allocation was female biased in monogamous hermaphrodites. On average, hermaphrodites invested 34 times more to female than to male reproductive structures. Monogamy and female-biased sex allocation seem to be evolutionary consequences of adopting a symbiotic lifestyle in simultaneous hermaphrodites.

  16. Improving Prediction Skill of Imperfect Turbulent Models Through Statistical Response and Information Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majda, Andrew J.; Qi, Di

    2016-02-01

    Turbulent dynamical systems with a large phase space and a high degree of instabilities are ubiquitous in climate science and engineering applications. Statistical uncertainty quantification (UQ) to the response to the change in forcing or uncertain initial data in such complex turbulent systems requires the use of imperfect models due to the lack of both physical understanding and the overwhelming computational demands of Monte Carlo simulation with a large-dimensional phase space. Thus, the systematic development of reduced low-order imperfect statistical models for UQ in turbulent dynamical systems is a grand challenge. This paper applies a recent mathematical strategy for calibrating imperfect models in a training phase and accurately predicting the response by combining information theory and linear statistical response theory in a systematic fashion. A systematic hierarchy of simple statistical imperfect closure schemes for UQ for these problems is designed and tested which are built through new local and global statistical energy conservation principles combined with statistical equilibrium fidelity. The forty mode Lorenz 96 (L-96) model which mimics forced baroclinic turbulence is utilized as a test bed for the calibration and predicting phases for the hierarchy of computationally cheap imperfect closure models both in the full phase space and in a reduced three-dimensional subspace containing the most energetic modes. In all of phase spaces, the nonlinear response of the true model is captured accurately for the mean and variance by the systematic closure model, while alternative methods based on the fluctuation-dissipation theorem alone are much less accurate. For reduced-order model for UQ in the three-dimensional subspace for L-96, the systematic low-order imperfect closure models coupled with the training strategy provide the highest predictive skill over other existing methods for general forced response yet have simple design principles based on a

  17. A density functional theory based approach for predicting melting points of ionic liquids.

    PubMed

    Chen, Lihua; Bryantsev, Vyacheslav S

    2017-02-01

    Accurate prediction of melting points of ILs is important both from the fundamental point of view and from the practical perspective for screening ILs with low melting points and broadening their utilization in a wider temperature range. In this work, we present an ab initio approach to calculate melting points of ILs with known crystal structures and illustrate its application for a series of 11 ILs containing imidazolium/pyrrolidinium cations and halide/polyatomic fluoro-containing anions. The melting point is determined as a temperature at which the Gibbs free energy of fusion is zero. The Gibbs free energy of fusion can be expressed through the use of the Born-Fajans-Haber cycle via the lattice free energy of forming a solid IL from gaseous phase ions and the sum of the solvation free energies of ions comprising IL. Dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT) involving (semi)local (PBE-D3) and hybrid exchange-correlation (HSE06-D3) functionals is applied to estimate the lattice enthalpy, entropy, and free energy. The ions solvation free energies are calculated with the SMD-generic-IL solvation model at the M06-2X/6-31+G(d) level of theory under standard conditions. The melting points of ILs computed with the HSE06-D3 functional are in good agreement with the experimental data, with a mean absolute error of 30.5 K and a mean relative error of 8.5%. The model is capable of accurately reproducing the trends in melting points upon variation of alkyl substituents in organic cations and replacement one anion by another. The results verify that the lattice energies of ILs containing polyatomic fluoro-containing anions can be approximated reasonably well using the volume-based thermodynamic approach. However, there is no correlation of the computed lattice energies with molecular volume for ILs containing halide anions. Moreover, entropies of solid ILs follow two different linear relationships with molecular volume for halides and polyatomic fluoro

  18. Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly

    PubMed Central

    Ahmad, Mohamad Hasnan; Shahar, Suzana; Teng, Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi; Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Sakian, Noor Ibrahim Mohd; Omar, Baharudin

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men) and 66.1±5.1 (women) years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1) exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women); and 2) the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women). Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB’s model, attitude (β=0.60) and perceived behavioral control (β=0.24) were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (β=0.82) was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men’s, β=0.68; women’s, β=0.24) and subjective norm (men’s, β=0.12; women’s, β=0.87) were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. “Feels healthier with exercise” was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (β=0.36) and women (β=0.49). “Not motivated to perform exercise” was the main barrier among men’s intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and to predict maintenance of exercise in the sarcopenic elderly. PMID:25258524

  19. The strength of rubble-pile bodies: Theory, observations, and predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheeres, D.; Sanchez, P.

    2014-07-01

    The strength and morphology of a rubble-pile body will control how fast it can rotate before shedding mass or deforming, influence the process by which multi-component asteroid systems are created, and could have significance for the mitigation of hazardous near-Earth asteroids (NEA) should this be necessary in the future [1,2,3]. The morphology of these bodies, including the size distribution of boulders and grains internal to the system, the macro-porosity of these bodies, and the shapes and spin states of these bodies, are important for understanding and interpreting spacecraft imaging of asteroids, for predicting the end-state evolution of these bodies, and for gaining insight into their formation circumstances. Despite these compelling issues and questions, real insight on the strength of rubble-pile bodies and their morphology remains elusive. We explore a theory recently developed by us [3] for the morphology and strength of a rubble-pile body based on the properties of cohesive powders and show that several observations of small asteroid properties are consistent with the predictions of this model. That small asteroids can be rubble-pile bodies is clear based on several lines of evidence, including spacecraft imaging and sample analysis of Itokawa [4,5], the existence of the rotation spin rate barrier for bodies larger than a few hundred meters [6], and the recent observations of disrupting asteroids in the main belt [7,8]. A simple extrapolation from these observations are that bodies of at least a few hundred meters and larger are composed of a size distribution of components that range from decameter-sized boulders down to micron-sized grains. The relevant questions then become what the characteristics of these size distributions are and what physical implications for the strength of these bodies arise from this morphology. Based on the theory of cohesive granular mechanics [9] combined with a thorough review of results from the Hayabusa mission [4

  20. Multiple sources and multiple measures based traffic flow prediction using the chaos theory and support vector regression method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Anyu; Jiang, Xiao; Li, Yongfu; Zhang, Chao; Zhu, Hao

    2017-01-01

    This study proposes a multiple sources and multiple measures based traffic flow prediction algorithm using the chaos theory and support vector regression method. In particular, first, the chaotic characteristics of traffic flow associated with the speed, occupancy, and flow are identified using the maximum Lyapunov exponent. Then, the phase space of multiple measures chaotic time series are reconstructed based on the phase space reconstruction theory and fused into a same multi-dimensional phase space using the Bayesian estimation theory. In addition, the support vector regression (SVR) model is designed to predict the traffic flow. Numerical experiments are performed using the data from multiple sources. The results show that, compared with the single measure, the proposed method has better performance for the short-term traffic flow prediction in terms of the accuracy and timeliness.

  1. Sperm allocation in relation to female size in a semelparous salmonid

    PubMed Central

    Ichimura, Masaki; Kitayama, Takenori; Kawabata, Yuuki; Kitagawa, Takashi; Kojima, Takahito; Pitcher, Trevor E.

    2016-01-01

    To maximize reproductive success, males have to adaptively tailor their sperm expenditure in relation to the quality of potential mates because they require time to replenish their sperm supply for subsequent mating opportunities. Therefore, in mating contexts where males must choose among females in a short period of time, as is the case with semelparous species (which die after one intensely competitive short duration breeding season), selection on sperm allocation can be expected to be a powerful selective agent that shapes the male reproductive success. We quantitatively investigated sperm allocation patterns in chum salmon in relation to perceived female quality by developing a novel method for determining the amount of sperm allocated per ejaculate during spawning bouts. We examined the relationship between sperm expenditure and the body size of paired females (a proxy of egg number and egg quality) in the absence of male–male competition in an experimental channel. The estimated amount of sperm released per spawning event was positively correlated with the size of paired females. However, the number of spawning events a female participated in, which reduces the number of eggs she spawns in each subsequent bout, did not affect this relationship. These results provide support for predictions arising from the sperm allocation hypothesis, male salmon do economize their sperm expenditure in accordance with paired female body size as predicted for their first spawning event, but males overestimate or are unable to assess the quality of females beyond size and provide more sperm than they should in theory when paired with a female that spawned previously. Overall, the observed sperm allocation pattern in chum salmon appears to be adapted to maximize reproductive success assuming female size is an honest indicator of quality, although temporal changes in a female's quality during a reproductive season should be considered when examining sperm allocation strategies

  2. Use of Plant Hydraulic Theory to Predict Ecosystem Fluxes Across Mountainous Gradients in Environmental Controls and Insect Disturbances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.; Reed, D. E.; Barnard, H. R.; Whitehouse, F.; Frank, J. M.; Massman, W. J.; Brooks, P. D.; Biederman, J. A.; Harpold, A. A.; Naithani, K. J.; Mitra, B.; Mackay, D. S.; Norton, U.; Borkhuu, B.

    2011-12-01

    While mountainous areas are critical for providing numerous ecosystem benefits at the regional scale, the strong gradients in environmental controls make predictions difficult. A key part of the problem is quantifying and predicting the feedback between mountain gradients and plant function which then controls ecosystem cycling. The emerging theory of plant hydraulics provides a rigorous yet simple platform from which to generate testable hypotheses and predictions of ecosystem pools and fluxes. Plant hydraulic theory predicts that plant controls over carbon, water, energy and nutrient fluxes can be derived from the limitation of plant water transport from the soil through xylem and out of stomata. In addition, the limit to plant water transport can be predicted by combining plant structure (e.g. xylem diameters or root-to-shoot ratios) and plant function (response of stomatal conductance to vapor pressure deficit or root vulnerability to cavitation). We evaluate the predictions of the plant hydraulic theory by testing it against data from a mountain gradient encompassing sagebrush steppe through subalpine forests (2700 to 3400 m). We further test the theory by predicting the carbon, water and nutrient exchanges from several coniferous trees in the same gradient that are dying from xylem dysfunction caused by blue-stain fungi carried by bark beetles. The common theme of both of these data sets is a change in water limitation caused by either changing precipitation along the mountainous gradient or lack of access to soil water from xylem-occluding fungi. Across all of the data sets which range in scale from individual plants to hillslopes, the data fit the predictions of plant hydraulic theory. Namely, there was a proportional tradeoff between the reference canopy stomatal conductance to water vapor and the sensitivity of that conductance to vapor pressure deficit that quantitatively fits the predictions of plant hydraulic theory. Incorporating this result into

  3. Birds' tails do act like delta wings but delta-wing theory does not always predict the forces they generate.

    PubMed

    Evans, Matthew R

    2003-07-07

    Delta-wing theory, which predicts the aerodynamics of aircraft like the Concorde, is the conventional explanation for the way in which a bird's tail operates in flight. Recently, doubt has been cast on the validity of applying a theory devised for supersonic aircraft to the small tails of slow-flying birds. By testing delta-wing models and birds' tails behind bodies with wings, I empirically show that the tails of birds produce lift in a very similar way to conventional delta-wing models. Both Perspex and birds' tail models produce lift similar to that predicted by delta-wing theory when narrowly spread and at low angles of attack. However, when widely spread and at high angles of attack, both tails and Perspex models produce much less lift than predicted, owing to vortex breakdown after which the assumptions of delta-wing theory are violated. These results indicate that birds' tails can be regarded as delta wings but that the theory predicting the forces produced by delta wings can only be applied within acceptable limits (i.e. tails spread less than 60 degrees and at angles of attack of less than 20 degrees).

  4. Advances in liver transplantation allocation systems.

    PubMed

    Schilsky, Michael L; Moini, Maryam

    2016-03-14

    With the growing number of patients in need of liver transplantation, there is a need for adopting new and modifying existing allocation policies that prioritize patients for liver transplantation. Policy should ensure fair allocation that is reproducible and strongly predictive of best pre and post transplant outcomes while taking into account the natural history of the potential recipients liver disease and its complications. There is wide acceptance for allocation policies based on urgency in which the sickest patients on the waiting list with the highest risk of mortality receive priority. Model for end-stage liver disease and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system, the two most universally applicable systems are used in urgency-based prioritization. However, other factors must be considered to achieve optimal allocation. Factors affecting pre-transplant patient survival and the quality of the donor organ also affect outcome. The optimal system should have allocation prioritization that accounts for both urgency and transplant outcome. We reviewed past and current liver allocation systems with the aim of generating further discussion about improvement of current policies.

  5. Advances in liver transplantation allocation systems

    PubMed Central

    Schilsky, Michael L; Moini, Maryam

    2016-01-01

    With the growing number of patients in need of liver transplantation, there is a need for adopting new and modifying existing allocation policies that prioritize patients for liver transplantation. Policy should ensure fair allocation that is reproducible and strongly predictive of best pre and post transplant outcomes while taking into account the natural history of the potential recipients liver disease and its complications. There is wide acceptance for allocation policies based on urgency in which the sickest patients on the waiting list with the highest risk of mortality receive priority. Model for end-stage liver disease and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system, the two most universally applicable systems are used in urgency-based prioritization. However, other factors must be considered to achieve optimal allocation. Factors affecting pre-transplant patient survival and the quality of the donor organ also affect outcome. The optimal system should have allocation prioritization that accounts for both urgency and transplant outcome. We reviewed past and current liver allocation systems with the aim of generating further discussion about improvement of current policies. PMID:26973389

  6. Prediction of exercise in patients across various stages of bariatric surgery: a comparison of the merits of the theory of reasoned action versus the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Hunt, Hillary R; Gross, Alan M

    2009-11-01

    Obesity is a world-wide health concern approaching epidemic proportions. Successful long-term treatment involves a combination of bariatric surgery, diet, and exercise. Social cognitive models, such as the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), are among the most commonly tested theories utilized in the prediction of exercise. As exercise is not a completely volitional behavior, it is hypothesized that the TPB is a superior theoretical model for the prediction of exercise intentions and behavior. This study tested validity of the TPB in a sample of bariatric patients and further validated its improvement over the TRA in predicting exercise adherence at different operative stages. Results generally confirmed research hypotheses. Superiority of the TPB model was validated in this sample of bariatric patients, and Perceived Behavioral Control emerged as the single-best predictor of both exercise intentions and self-reported behavior. Finally, results suggested that both subjective norms and attitudes toward exercise played a larger role in the prediction of intention and behavior than previously reported.

  7. Propeller thrust analysis using Prandtl's lifting line theory, a comparison between the experimental thrust and the thrust predicted by Prandtl's lifting line theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kesler, Steven R.

    The lifting line theory was first developed by Prandtl and was used primarily on analysis of airplane wings. Though the theory is about one hundred years old, it is still used in the initial calculations to find the lift of a wing. The question that guided this thesis was, "How close does Prandtl's lifting line theory predict the thrust of a propeller?" In order to answer this question, an experiment was designed that measured the thrust of a propeller for different speeds. The measured thrust was compared to what the theory predicted. In order to do this experiment and analysis, a propeller needed to be used. A walnut wood ultralight propeller was chosen that had a 1.30 meter (51 inches) length from tip to tip. In this thesis, Prandtl's lifting line theory was modified to account for the different incoming velocity depending on the radial position of the airfoil. A modified equation was used to reflect these differences. A working code was developed based on this modified equation. A testing rig was built that allowed the propeller to be rotated at high speeds while measuring the thrust. During testing, the rotational speed of the propeller ranged from 13-43 rotations per second. The thrust from the propeller was measured at different speeds and ranged from 16-33 Newton's. The test data were then compared to the theoretical results obtained from the lifting line code. A plot in Chapter 5 (the results section) shows the theoretical vs. actual thrust for different rotational speeds. The theory over predicted the actual thrust of the propeller. Depending on the rotational speed, the error was: at low speeds 36%, at low to moderate speeds 84%, and at high speeds the error increased to 195%. Different reasons for these errors are discussed.

  8. On Predicting Mössbauer Parameters of Iron-Containing Molecules with Density-Functional Theory

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The performance of six frequently used density functional theory (DFT) methods (RPBE, OLYP, TPSS, B3LYP, B3LYP*, and TPSSh) in the prediction of Mössbauer isomer shifts(δ) and quadrupole splittings (ΔEQ) is studied for an extended and diverse set of Fe complexes. In addition to the influence of the applied density functional and the type of the basis set, the effect of the environment of the molecule, approximated with the conducting-like screening solvation model (COSMO) on the computed Mössbauer parameters, is also investigated. For the isomer shifts the COSMO-B3LYP method is found to provide accurate δ values for all 66 investigated complexes, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.05 mm s–1 and a maximum deviation of 0.12 mm s–1. Obtaining accurate ΔEQ values presents a bigger challenge; however, with the selection of an appropriate DFT method, a reasonable agreement can be achieved between experiment and theory. Identifying the various chemical classes of compounds that need different treatment allowed us to construct a recipe for ΔEQ calculations; the application of this approach yields a MAE of 0.12 mm s–1 (7% error) and a maximum deviation of 0.55 mm s–1 (17% error). This accuracy should be sufficient for most chemical problems that concern Fe complexes. Furthermore, the reliability of the DFT approach is verified by extending the investigation to chemically relevant case studies which include geometric isomerism, phase transitions induced by variations of the electronic structure (e.g., spin crossover and inversion of the orbital ground state), and the description of electronically degenerate triplet and quintet states. Finally, the immense and often unexploited potential of utilizing the sign of the ΔEQ in characterizing distortions or in identifying the appropriate electronic state at the assignment of the spectral lines is also shown. PMID:25821417

  9. Metacognitive and control strategies in study-time allocation.

    PubMed

    Son, L K; Metcalfe, J

    2000-01-01

    This article investigates how people's metacognitive judgments influence subsequent study-time-allocation strategies. The authors present a comprehensive literature review indicating that people allocate more study time to judged-difficult than to judged-easy items--consistent with extant models of study-time allocation. However, typically, the materials were short, and participants had ample time for study. In contrast, in Experiment 1, when participants had insufficient time to study, they allocated more time to the judged-easy items than to the judged-difficult items, especially when expecting a test. In Experiment 2, when the materials were shorter, people allocated more study time to the judged-difficult materials. In Experiment 3, under high time pressure, people preferred studying judged-easy sonnets; under moderate time pressure, they showed no preference. These results provide new evidence against extant theories of study-time allocation.

  10. Scaling up from traits to communities to ecosystems across broad climate gradients: Testing Metabolic Scaling Theories predictions for forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enquist, B. J.; Michaletz, S. T.; Buzzard, V.

    2015-12-01

    Key insights in global ecology will come from mechanistically linking pattern and process across scales. Macrosystems ecology specifically attempts to link ecological processes across spatiotemporal scales. The goal s to link the processing of energy and nutrients from cells all the way ecosystems and to understand how shifting climate influences ecosystem processes. Using new data collected from NSF funded Macrosystems project we report on new findings from forests sites across a broad temperature gradient. Our study sites span tropical, temperate, and high elevation forests we assess several key predictions and assumptions of Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) as well as several other competing hypotheses for the role of climate, light, and plant traits on influencing forest demography and forest ecosystems. Specifically, we assess the importance of plant size, light limitation, size structure, and various climatic factors on forest growth, demography, and ecosystem functioning. We provide some of the first systematic tests of several key predictions from MST. We show that MST predictions are largely upheld and that new insights from assessing theories predictions yields new observations and findings that help modify and extend MST's predictions and applicability. We discuss how theory is critically needed to further our understanding of how to scale pattern and process in ecology - from traits to ecosystems - in order to develop a more predictive global change biology.

  11. Context-dependent sex allocation: constraints on the expression and evolution of maternal effects.

    PubMed

    Pryke, Sarah R; Rollins, Lee A; Griffith, Simon C

    2011-10-01

    Despite decades of research, whether vertebrates can and do adaptively adjust the sex ratio of their offspring is still highly debated. However, this may have resulted from the failure of empirical tests to identify large and predictable fitness returns to females from strategic adjustment. Here, we test the effect of diet quality and maternal condition on facultative sex ratio adjustment in the color polymorphic Gouldian finch (Erythrura gouldiae), a species that exhibits extreme maternal allocation in response to severe and predictable (genetically-determined) fitness costs. On high-quality diets, females produced a relatively equal sex ratio, but over-produced sons in poor dietary conditions. Despite the lack of sexual size dimorphism, nutritionally stressed foster sons were healthier, grew faster, and were more likely to survive than daughters. Although these findings are in line with predictions from sex allocation theory, the extent of adjustment is considerably lower than previously reported for this species. Females therefore have strong facultative control over sex allocation, but the extent of adjustment is likely determined by the relative magnitude of fitness gains and the ability to reliably predict sex-specific benefits from environmental (vs. genetic) variables. These findings may help explain the often inconsistent, weak, or inconclusive empirical evidence for adaptive sex ratio adjustment in vertebrates.

  12. Dispersion corrected hartree-fock and density functional theory for organic crystal structure prediction.

    PubMed

    Brandenburg, Jan Gerit; Grimme, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    We present and evaluate dispersion corrected Hartree-Fock (HF) and Density Functional Theory (DFT) based quantum chemical methods for organic crystal structure prediction. The necessity of correcting for missing long-range electron correlation, also known as van der Waals (vdW) interaction, is pointed out and some methodological issues such as inclusion of three-body dispersion terms are discussed. One of the most efficient and widely used methods is the semi-classical dispersion correction D3. Its applicability for the calculation of sublimation energies is investigated for the benchmark set X23 consisting of 23 small organic crystals. For PBE-D3 the mean absolute deviation (MAD) is below the estimated experimental uncertainty of 1.3 kcal/mol. For two larger π-systems, the equilibrium crystal geometry is investigated and very good agreement with experimental data is found. Since these calculations are carried out with huge plane-wave basis sets they are rather time consuming and routinely applicable only to systems with less than about 200 atoms in the unit cell. Aiming at crystal structure prediction, which involves screening of many structures, a pre-sorting with faster methods is mandatory. Small, atom-centered basis sets can speed up the computation significantly but they suffer greatly from basis set errors. We present the recently developed geometrical counterpoise correction gCP. It is a fast semi-empirical method which corrects for most of the inter- and intramolecular basis set superposition error. For HF calculations with nearly minimal basis sets, we additionally correct for short-range basis incompleteness. We combine all three terms in the HF-3c denoted scheme which performs very well for the X23 sublimation energies with an MAD of only 1.5 kcal/mol, which is close to the huge basis set DFT-D3 result.

  13. Predicting accurate fluorescent spectra for high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons using density functional theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, Jacob; Heider, Emily C.; Campiglia, Andres; Harper, James K.

    2016-10-01

    The ability of density functional theory (DFT) methods to predict accurate fluorescence spectra for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is explored. Two methods, PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP, are evaluated both in the gas phase and in solution. Spectra for several of the most toxic PAHs are predicted and compared to experiment, including three isomers of C24H14 and a PAH containing heteroatoms. Unusually high-resolution experimental spectra are obtained for comparison by analyzing each PAH at 4.2 K in an n-alkane matrix. All theoretical spectra visually conform to the profiles of the experimental data but are systematically offset by a small amount. Specifically, when solvent is included the PBE0 functional overestimates peaks by 16.1 ± 6.6 nm while CAM-B3LYP underestimates the same transitions by 14.5 ± 7.6 nm. These calculated spectra can be empirically corrected to decrease the uncertainties to 6.5 ± 5.1 and 5.7 ± 5.1 nm for the PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP methods, respectively. A comparison of computed spectra in the gas phase indicates that the inclusion of n-octane shifts peaks by +11 nm on average and this change is roughly equivalent for PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP. An automated approach for comparing spectra is also described that minimizes residuals between a given theoretical spectrum and all available experimental spectra. This approach identifies the correct spectrum in all cases and excludes approximately 80% of the incorrect spectra, demonstrating that an automated search of theoretical libraries of spectra may eventually become feasible.

  14. Predicting a quaternary tungsten oxide for sustainable photovoltaic application by density functional theory

    SciTech Connect

    Sarker, Pranab; Huda, Muhammad N.; Al-Jassim, Mowafak M.

    2015-12-07

    A quaternary oxide, CuSnW{sub 2}O{sub 8} (CTTO), has been predicted by density functional theory (DFT) to be a suitable material for sustainable photovoltaic applications. CTTO possesses band gaps of 1.25 eV (indirect) and 1.37 eV (direct), which were evaluated using the hybrid functional (HSE06) as a post-DFT method. The hole mobility of CTTO was higher than that of silicon. Further, optical absorption calculations demonstrate that CTTO is a better absorber of sunlight than Cu{sub 2}ZnSnS{sub 4} and CuIn{sub x}Ga{sub 1−x}Se{sub 2} (x = 0.5). In addition, CTTO exhibits rigorous thermodynamic stability comparable to WO{sub 3}, as investigated by different thermodynamic approaches such as bonding cohesion, fragmentation tendency, and chemical potential analysis. Chemical potential analysis further revealed that CTTO can be synthesized at flexible experimental growth conditions, although the co-existence of at least one secondary phase is likely. Finally, like other Cu-based compounds, the formation of Cu vacancies is highly probable, even at Cu-rich growth condition, which could introduce p-type activity in CTTO.

  15. Kohn-Sham density functional theory prediction of fracture in silicon carbide under mixed mode loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leung, K. W. K.; Pan, Z. L.; Warner, D. H.

    2016-03-01

    The utility of silicon carbide (SiC) for high temperature structural application has been limited by its brittleness. To improve its ductility, it is paramount to develop a sound understanding of the mechanisms controlling crack propagation. In this manuscript, we present direct ab initio predictions of fracture in SiC under pure mode I and mixed mode loading, utilizing a Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory (KSDFT) framework. Our results show that in both loading cases, cleavage occurs at a stress intensity factor (SIF) only slightly higher than the Griffith toughness, focusing on a (1 1 1) [1 \\bar{1} 0] crack in the 3C-SiC crystal structure. This lattice trapping effect is shown to decrease with mode mixity, due to the formation of a temporary surface bond that forms during decohesion under shear. Comparing the critical mode I SIF to the value obtained in experiments suggests that some plasticity may occur near a crack tip in SiC even at low temperatures. Ultimately, these findings provide a solid foundation upon which to study the influence of impurities on brittleness, and upon which to develop empirical potentials capable of realistically simulating fracture in SiC.

  16. Theory of Mind Predicts Emotion Knowledge Development in Head Start Children

    PubMed Central

    Seidenfeld, Adina M.; Johnson, Stacy R.; Cavadel, Elizabeth Woodburn; Izard, Carroll E.

    2014-01-01

    Research Findings Emotion knowledge (EK) enables children to identify emotions in themselves and others and its development facilitates emotion recognition in complex social situations. Social-cognitive processes, such as theory of mind (ToM), may contribute to developing EK by helping children realize the inherent variability associated with emotion expression across individuals and situations. The present study explored how ToM, particularly false belief understanding, in preschool predicts children’s developing EK in kindergarten. Participants were 60 3- to 5-year-old Head Start children. ToM and EK measures were obtained from standardized child tasks. ToM scores were positively related to performance on an EK task in kindergarten after controlling for preschool levels of EK and verbal ability. Exploratory analyses provided preliminary evidence that ToM serves as an indirect effect between verbal ability and EK. Practice or Policy Early intervention programs may benefit from including lessons on ToM to help promote socio-emotional learning, specifically EK. This consideration may be the most fruitful when the targeted population is at-risk. PMID:25364212

  17. Theory of mind ability predicts prognosis of outpatients with major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Yamada, Kazuo; Inoue, Yumiko; Kanba, Shigenobu

    2015-12-15

    A theory of mind (ToM) deficit in patients with major depressive episodes is associated with difficulty in social adjustment, and thus may indicate a poorer prognosis. We investigated the association between ToM deficits and the outcome in patients who had recovered from major depressive episodes. We evaluated ToM abilities of 100 patients with major depressive disorder during a period of remission. The patients were followed up for one year and their outcomes observed. After one year, patients who had a ToM deficit according to a second-order false belief question relapsed significantly more frequently than did patients who did not have a deficit (Fisher's exact test P<0.0001; relative risk (RR)=8.286; CI 2.608, 26.324). Significant differences between these two groups were shown in scores of the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale (P<0.0001). Our results suggest that a ToM deficit after symptom remission in patients with major depressive disorder predicts a higher relapse rate and lower social function one year after recovering from a major depressive episode.

  18. The prediction of stellar effective temperatures from the mixing-length theory of convection

    SciTech Connect

    Pedersen, B.B.; Vandenberg, D.A.; Irwin, A.W. )

    1990-03-01

    A generalized version of the mixing-length theory (MLT) of convection, along with simplifications in the limits of high and low convective efficiency, is described. This forms the basis for a study of the effects of proposed modifications to the original (Boehm-Vitense, 1958) form of the MLT on the predicted effective temperatures of cool stars. These modifications include the parameters y and m. It is found that none of the suggested refinements to the MLT affect the location and shape of an evolutionary track on the H-R diagram in ways that cannot be mimicked to high accuracy by a suitable choice of mixing length parameters alone. Thus, if mixing length parameters is calibrated by comparing stellar models with observed main-sequence stars with well-determined properties, then the subsequent evolutionary tracks and isochrones are uniquely defined, regardless of what version of the MLT is used in the calculations. A careful examination of the Revised Yale Isochrones suggests that the Teff scale of these isochrones is inconsistent with the assumed MLT, thereby resolving much of the known discrepancies between these calculations and those of VandenBerg and Bell (1958). 44 refs.

  19. Examining and Predicting College Students' Reading Intentions and Behaviors: An Application of the Theory of Reasoned Action

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burak, Lydia

    2004-01-01

    This study examined the recreational reading attitudes, intentions, and behaviors of college students. The theory of reasoned action provided the framework for the investigation and prediction of the students' intentions and behaviors. Two hundred and one students completed questionnaires developed according to the guidelines for the construction…

  20. A Theory of Planned Behavior Research Model for Predicting the Sleep Intentions and Behaviors of Undergraduate College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knowlden, Adam P.; Sharma, Manoj; Bernard, Amy L.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to operationalize the constructs of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to predict the sleep intentions and behaviors of undergraduate college students attending a Midwestern University. Data collection spanned three phases. The first phase included a semi-structured qualitative interview (n = 11), readability by…

  1. Using Structural Equation Modeling to Validate the Theory of Planned Behavior as a Model for Predicting Student Cheating

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mayhew, Matthew J.; Hubbard, Steven M.; Finelli, Cynthia J.; Harding, Trevor S.; Carpenter, Donald D.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to validate the use of a modified Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) for predicting undergraduate student cheating. Specifically, we administered a survey assessing how the TPB relates to cheating along with a measure of moral reasoning (DIT- 2) to 527 undergraduate students across three institutions; and analyzed the…

  2. Predicting Occupational Interests and Choice Aspirations in Portuguese High School Students: A Test of Social Cognitive Career Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lent, Robert W.; Paixao, Maria Paula; da Silva, Jose Tomas; Leitao, Ligia Mexia

    2010-01-01

    The predictive utility of social cognitive career theory's (SCCT) interest and choice models was examined in a sample of 600 Portuguese high school students. Participants completed measures of occupational self-efficacy, outcome expectations, interests, social supports and barriers, and choice consideration across the six Holland (1997) RIASEC…

  3. Predicting Physical Activity of First-Year University Students: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kwan, Matthew Yiu Wing; Bray, Steven Russell; Ginis, Kathleen Anne Martin

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The purpose of this study was to apply Ajzen's theory of planned behavior (TPB) and a measure of past physical activity behavior to predict first-year students' physical activity intentions and behavior. Participants and Methods: First-year university students (N = 212) completed measures of TPB variables and past physical activity at…

  4. Fitting a Mixture Item Response Theory Model to Personality Questionnaire Data: Characterizing Latent Classes and Investigating Possibilities for Improving Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maij-de Meij, Annette M.; Kelderman, Henk; van der Flier, Henk

    2008-01-01

    Mixture item response theory (IRT) models aid the interpretation of response behavior on personality tests and may provide possibilities for improving prediction. Heterogeneity in the population is modeled by identifying homogeneous subgroups that conform to different measurement models. In this study, mixture IRT models were applied to the…

  5. Predicting Oral Health-Related Behaviour in the Parents of Preschool Children: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van den Branden, Sigrid; Van den Broucke, Stephan; Leroy, Roos; Declerck, Dominique; Hoppenbrouwers, Karel

    2015-01-01

    Objective: This study aimed to test the predictive validity of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) when applied to the oral health-related behaviours of parents towards their preschool children in a cross-sectional and prospective design over a 5-year interval. Methods: Data for this study were obtained from parents of 1,057 children born…

  6. Applying Social Cognitive Career Theory to Predict Interests and Choice Goals in Statistics among Spanish Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blanco, Angeles

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the usefulness of social cognitive career theory--SCCT (Lent, Brown, and Hackett, 1994) in predicting interests and goals relating to statistics among psychology students. The participants were 1036 Spanish students who completed measurements of statistics-related mastery experiences, self-efficacy, outcome expectations,…

  7. Behavioral Change Theories Can Inform the Prediction of Young Adults' Adoption of a Plant-Based Diet

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyker, Brett A.; Davison, Kirsten K.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Drawing on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Transtheoretical Model (TTM), this study (1) examines links between stages of change for following a plant-based diet (PBD) and consuming more fruits and vegetables (FV); (2) tests an integrated theoretical model predicting intention to follow a PBD; and (3) identifies associated…

  8. Theory of Planned Behavior: Sensitivity and Specificity in Predicting Graduation and Drop-Out among College and University Students?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fichten, Catherine S.; Amsel, Rhonda; Jorgensen, Mary; Nguyen, Mai Nhu; Budd, Jillian; King, Laura; Jorgensen, Shirley; Asuncion, Jennison

    2016-01-01

    We examined sensitivity and specificity when using the three theory of planned behavior (TPB) scales (Perceived Behavioral Control, Subjective Norms, Attitude) to predict graduation and drop-out in a longitudinal study of 252 college and university students with disabilities and in a separate cross-sectional study of a random sample of 1380…

  9. Island biogeographical theory: Can it be used to predict lotic recovery rates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gore, James A.; Milner, Alexander M.

    1990-09-01

    Classic island biogeographic theory predicts that equilibrium will be reached when immigration and extinction rates are equal. These rates are modified by number of species in source area, number of intermediate islands, distance to recipient island, and size of intermediate islands. This general model has been variously modified and proposed to be a stochastic process with minimal competitive interaction or heavily deterministic. Predictive models of recovery (regardless of the end point chosen) have been based on the appropriateness of the MacArthur-Wilson models. Because disturbance frequency, severity, and intensity vary in their effect on community dynamics, we propose that disturbance levels should first be defined before evaluating the applicability of island biogeographical theory. Thus, we suggest a classification system of four disturbance levels based on recovery patterns by primary and secondary succession and faunal organization by primary (invasion of vacant areas) and secondary (remnant of previous community remains) processes. Level 1A disturbances completely destroy communities with no upstream or downstream sources of colonizers, while some component of near surface interstitial or hyporheic flora and fauna survive level 1B disturbances. Recovery has been reported to take from five years to longer than 25 years, when most invading colonists do not have an aerial form. Level 2 disturbances destroy the communities but leave upstream and downstream colonization sources (level 2A) and, sometimes, a hyporheic pool of colonizers (level 2B). Recovery studies have indicated primary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2A) with recovery times of 90-400 days or secondary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2B) with recovery times of 40-250 days. Level 3 disturbances result in reduction in species abundance and diversity along a stream reach; level 4 disturbances result in reduction of abundance and diversity in discrete patches. Both

  10. Uncorrelated-factors approximation and a comparison of theories for predicting thermal properties: A Lennard-Jones solid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardy, Robert J.; Day, Michael A.; Shukla, Ramesh C.; Cowley, E. Roger

    1994-04-01

    The equations for determining the free energy of a solid with two-body interactions in the uncorrelated-factors approximation (UFA) are derived from the correlated-factors theorem. A self-consistent choice of the parameters in the harmonic Hamiltonian causes the approximation to be accurate through second order. The specific heat, thermal expansion, and bulk modulus of an fcc Lennard-Jones solid with nearest-neighbor interactions only are calculated in the UFA and the results are compared with the predictions of lowest-order and improved self-consistent phonon theory (SC1 and ISC), perturbation theory through fourth order, and other approximations. The predictions of the UFA are in very good agreement with new classical Monte Carlo estimates and with recent effective potential Monte Carlo results. The calculational effort required in the UFA is similar to that in SC1, while the accuracy of the predictions is similar to that of ISC.

  11. Approaches to Resource Allocation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dressel, Paul; Simon, Lou Anna Kimsey

    1976-01-01

    Various budgeting patterns and strategies are currently in use, each with its own particular strengths and weaknesses. Neither cost-benefit analysis nor cost-effectiveness analysis offers any better solution to the allocation problem than do the unsupported contentions of departments or the historical unit costs. An operable model that performs…

  12. Which Is Better at Predicting Quantum-Tunneling Rates: Quantum Transition-State Theory or Free-Energy Instanton Theory?

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yanchuan; Stecher, Thomas; Cvitaš, Marko T; Althorpe, Stuart C

    2014-11-20

    Quantum transition-state theory (QTST) and free-energy instanton theory (FEIT) are two closely related methods for estimating the quantum rate coefficient from the free-energy at the reaction barrier. In calculations on one-dimensional models, FEIT typically gives closer agreement than QTST with the exact quantum results at all temperatures below the crossover to deep tunneling, suggesting that FEIT is a better approximation than QTST in this regime. Here we show that this simple trend does not hold for systems of greater dimensionality. We report tests on several collinear and three-dimensional reactions, in which QTST outperforms FEIT over a range of temperatures below crossover, which can extend down to half the crossover temperature (below which FEIT outperforms QTST). This suggests that QTST-based methods such as ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD) may often give closer agreement with the exact quantum results than FEIT.

  13. Constrained Allocation Flux Balance Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Mori, Matteo; Hwa, Terence; Martin, Olivier C.

    2016-01-01

    New experimental results on bacterial growth inspire a novel top-down approach to study cell metabolism, combining mass balance and proteomic constraints to extend and complement Flux Balance Analysis. We introduce here Constrained Allocation Flux Balance Analysis, CAFBA, in which the biosynthetic costs associated to growth are accounted for in an effective way through a single additional genome-wide constraint. Its roots lie in the experimentally observed pattern of proteome allocation for metabolic functions, allowing to bridge regulation and metabolism in a transparent way under the principle of growth-rate maximization. We provide a simple method to solve CAFBA efficiently and propose an “ensemble averaging” procedure to account for unknown protein costs. Applying this approach to modeling E. coli metabolism, we find that, as the growth rate increases, CAFBA solutions cross over from respiratory, growth-yield maximizing states (preferred at slow growth) to fermentative states with carbon overflow (preferred at fast growth). In addition, CAFBA allows for quantitatively accurate predictions on the rate of acetate excretion and growth yield based on only 3 parameters determined by empirical growth laws. PMID:27355325

  14. Gender perspective on the factors predicting recycling behavior: Implications from the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Oztekin, Ceren; Teksöz, Gaye; Pamuk, Savas; Sahin, Elvan; Kilic, Dilek Sultan

    2017-02-17

    This study aimed to assess the role of some socio-psychological attributes in explaining recycling behavior of Turkish university community from a gender perspective within the context of the theory of planned behavior with an additional variable (past experience). The recycling behavior of whole sample, females and males, has been examined in 3 sessions -depending on the arguments that explain gendered pattern of private and public environmental behavior and sticking to the fact why females' stronger environmental values, beliefs, and attitudes do not translate consistently into greater engagement in public behavior. As a result of model runs, different variables shaping intention for behavior have been found, namely perceived behavior control for females and past behavior for males. Due to the low percent of the variance in explaining recycling behavior of females, they have been identified as the ones who do not carry out intentions (non-recyclers). Since intentions alone are capable of identifying recyclers accurately but not non-recyclers, there may be other factors to be considered to understand the reason for females not carrying out the intentions. The results of descriptive statistics supported the identification by attitudes toward recycling. Female attitudes were innate (recycling is good, necessary, useful and sensitive), whereas those of males were learnt (recycling is healthy, valuable and correct). Thus, it has been concluded that males' intention for recycling is shaped by their past behavior and the conclusion is supported by males having learnt attitude toward recycling whereas females' lack of intention for recycling is shaped by their perceived behavior control and is supported by their innate attitude for recycling. All in all, the results of the present study provide further support for the utility of the TPB as a model of behavioral prediction and concur with other studies examining the utility of the TPB in the context of recycling.

  15. Predicting critical temperatures of iron(II) spin crossover materials: Density functional theory plus U approach

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yachao

    2014-12-07

    A first-principles study of critical temperatures (T{sub c}) of spin crossover (SCO) materials requires accurate description of the strongly correlated 3d electrons as well as much computational effort. This task is still a challenge for the widely used local density or generalized gradient approximations (LDA/GGA) and hybrid functionals. One remedy, termed density functional theory plus U (DFT+U) approach, introduces a Hubbard U term to deal with the localized electrons at marginal computational cost, while treats the delocalized electrons with LDA/GGA. Here, we employ the DFT+U approach to investigate the T{sub c} of a pair of iron(II) SCO molecular crystals (α and β phase), where identical constituent molecules are packed in different ways. We first calculate the adiabatic high spin-low spin energy splitting ΔE{sub HL} and molecular vibrational frequencies in both spin states, then obtain the temperature dependent enthalpy and entropy changes (ΔH and ΔS), and finally extract T{sub c} by exploiting the ΔH/T − T and ΔS − T relationships. The results are in agreement with experiment. Analysis of geometries and electronic structures shows that the local ligand field in the α phase is slightly weakened by the H-bondings involving the ligand atoms and the specific crystal packing style. We find that this effect is largely responsible for the difference in T{sub c} of the two phases. This study shows the applicability of the DFT+U approach for predicting T{sub c} of SCO materials, and provides a clear insight into the subtle influence of the crystal packing effects on SCO behavior.

  16. Nonlocal continuum electrostatic theory predicts surprisingly small energetic penalties for charge burial in proteins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardhan, Jaydeep P.

    2011-09-01

    We study the energetics of burying charges, ion pairs, and ionizable groups in a simple protein model using nonlocal continuum electrostatics. Our primary finding is that the nonlocal response leads to markedly reduced solvent screening, comparable to the use of application-specific protein dielectric constants. Employing the same parameters as used in other nonlocal studies, we find that for a sphere of radius 13.4 Å containing a single +1e charge, the nonlocal solvation free energy varies less than 18 kcal/mol as the charge moves from the surface to the center, whereas the difference in the local Poisson model is ˜35 kcal/mol. Because an ion pair (salt bridge) generates a comparatively more rapidly varying Coulomb potential, energetics for salt bridges are even more significantly reduced in the nonlocal model. By varying the central parameter in nonlocal theory, which is an effective length scale associated with correlations between solvent molecules, nonlocal-model energetics can be varied from the standard local results to essentially zero; however, the existence of the reduction in charge-burial penalties is quite robust to variations in the protein dielectric constant and the correlation length. Finally, as a simple exploratory test of the implications of nonlocal response, we calculate glutamate pKa shifts and find that using standard protein parameters (ɛprotein = 2-4), nonlocal results match local-model predictions with much higher dielectric constants. Nonlocality may, therefore, be one factor in resolving discrepancies between measured protein dielectric constants and the model parameters often used to match titration experiments. Nonlocal models may hold significant promise to deepen our understanding of macromolecular electrostatics without substantially increasing computational complexity.

  17. Nonlocal continuum electrostatic theory predicts surprisingly small energetic penalties for charge burial in proteins.

    PubMed

    Bardhan, Jaydeep P

    2011-09-14

    We study the energetics of burying charges, ion pairs, and ionizable groups in a simple protein model using nonlocal continuum electrostatics. Our primary finding is that the nonlocal response leads to markedly reduced solvent screening, comparable to the use of application-specific protein dielectric constants. Employing the same parameters as used in other nonlocal studies, we find that for a sphere of radius 13.4 Å containing a single +1e charge, the nonlocal solvation free energy varies less than 18 kcal/mol as the charge moves from the surface to the center, whereas the difference in the local Poisson model is ∼35 kcal/mol. Because an ion pair (salt bridge) generates a comparatively more rapidly varying Coulomb potential, energetics for salt bridges are even more significantly reduced in the nonlocal model. By varying the central parameter in nonlocal theory, which is an effective length scale associated with correlations between solvent molecules, nonlocal-model energetics can be varied from the standard local results to essentially zero; however, the existence of the reduction in charge-burial penalties is quite robust to variations in the protein dielectric constant and the correlation length. Finally, as a simple exploratory test of the implications of nonlocal response, we calculate glutamate pK(a) shifts and find that using standard protein parameters (ε(protein) = 2-4), nonlocal results match local-model predictions with much higher dielectric constants. Nonlocality may, therefore, be one factor in resolving discrepancies between measured protein dielectric constants and the model parameters often used to match titration experiments. Nonlocal models may hold significant promise to deepen our understanding of macromolecular electrostatics without substantially increasing computational complexity.

  18. Predicting critical temperatures of iron(II) spin crossover materials: Density functional theory plus U approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yachao

    2014-12-01

    A first-principles study of critical temperatures (Tc) of spin crossover (SCO) materials requires accurate description of the strongly correlated 3d electrons as well as much computational effort. This task is still a challenge for the widely used local density or generalized gradient approximations (LDA/GGA) and hybrid functionals. One remedy, termed density functional theory plus U (DFT+U) approach, introduces a Hubbard U term to deal with the localized electrons at marginal computational cost, while treats the delocalized electrons with LDA/GGA. Here, we employ the DFT+U approach to investigate the Tc of a pair of iron(II) SCO molecular crystals (α and β phase), where identical constituent molecules are packed in different ways. We first calculate the adiabatic high spin-low spin energy splitting ΔEHL and molecular vibrational frequencies in both spin states, then obtain the temperature dependent enthalpy and entropy changes (ΔH and ΔS), and finally extract Tc by exploiting the ΔH/T - T and ΔS - T relationships. The results are in agreement with experiment. Analysis of geometries and electronic structures shows that the local ligand field in the α phase is slightly weakened by the H-bondings involving the ligand atoms and the specific crystal packing style. We find that this effect is largely responsible for the difference in Tc of the two phases. This study shows the applicability of the DFT+U approach for predicting Tc of SCO materials, and provides a clear insight into the subtle influence of the crystal packing effects on SCO behavior.

  19. Predicting critical temperatures of iron(II) spin crossover materials: density functional theory plus U approach.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yachao

    2014-12-07

    A first-principles study of critical temperatures (T(c)) of spin crossover (SCO) materials requires accurate description of the strongly correlated 3d electrons as well as much computational effort. This task is still a challenge for the widely used local density or generalized gradient approximations (LDA/GGA) and hybrid functionals. One remedy, termed density functional theory plus U (DFT+U) approach, introduces a Hubbard U term to deal with the localized electrons at marginal computational cost, while treats the delocalized electrons with LDA/GGA. Here, we employ the DFT+U approach to investigate the T(c) of a pair of iron(II) SCO molecular crystals (α and β phase), where identical constituent molecules are packed in different ways. We first calculate the adiabatic high spin-low spin energy splitting ΔE(HL) and molecular vibrational frequencies in both spin states, then obtain the temperature dependent enthalpy and entropy changes (ΔH and ΔS), and finally extract T(c) by exploiting the ΔH/T - T and ΔS - T relationships. The results are in agreement with experiment. Analysis of geometries and electronic structures shows that the local ligand field in the α phase is slightly weakened by the H-bondings involving the ligand atoms and the specific crystal packing style. We find that this effect is largely responsible for the difference in T(c) of the two phases. This study shows the applicability of the DFT+U approach for predicting T(c) of SCO materials, and provides a clear insight into the subtle influence of the crystal packing effects on SCO behavior.

  20. Game Theoretic Modeling of Water Resources Allocation Under Hydro-Climatic Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Siegfried, T.

    2005-12-01

    Typical hydrologic and economic modeling approaches rely on assumptions of climate stationarity and economic conditions of ideal markets and rational decision-makers. In this study, we incorporate hydroclimatic variability with a game theoretic approach to simulate and evaluate common water allocation paradigms. Game Theory may be particularly appropriate for modeling water allocation decisions. First, a game theoretic approach allows economic analysis in situations where price theory doesn't apply, which is typically the case in water resources where markets are thin, players are few, and rules of exchange are highly constrained by legal or cultural traditions. Previous studies confirm that game theory is applicable to water resources decision problems, yet applications and modeling based on these principles is only rarely observed in the literature. Second, there are numerous existing theoretical and empirical studies of specific games and human behavior that may be applied in the development of predictive water allocation models. With this framework, one can evaluate alternative orderings and rules regarding the fraction of available water that one is allowed to appropriate. Specific attributes of the players involved in water resources management complicate the determination of solutions to game theory models. While an analytical approach will be useful for providing general insights, the variety of preference structures of individual players in a realistic water scenario will likely require a simulation approach. We propose a simulation approach incorporating the rationality, self-interest and equilibrium concepts of game theory with an agent-based modeling framework that allows the distinct properties of each player to be expressed and allows the performance of the system to manifest the integrative effect of these factors. Underlying this framework, we apply a realistic representation of spatio-temporal hydrologic variability and incorporate the impact of

  1. Do Deterrence and Social-Control Theories Predict Driving after Drinking 15 years after a DWI Conviction?

    PubMed Central

    Lapham, Sandra C.; Todd, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Objective This study investigates the utility of deterrence and social-control theories for prospective prediction of driving-while-impaired (DWI) outcomes of first-time DWI offenders. Method The sample consisted of a subset of 544 convicted first-time DWI offenders (n = 337 females) who were interviewed 5 and 15 years after referral to a screening program in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. Variables collected at the 5-year (initial) interview were used in structural equation models to predict past 3-months, self-reported DWI at the 15-year follow-up (follow-up) interview. These variables represented domains defined by deterrence and social-control theories of DWI behavior, with one model corresponding to deterrence theory and one to social-control theory. Results Both models fit the data. DWI jail time was positively related to perceived enforcement, which was negatively but not significantly related to self-reported DWI. Neither jail time for DWI nor perceived likelihood of arrest was linearly related to self-reported DWI at follow-up. Interactions between jail time and prior DWI behavior indicated relatively weaker associations between initial and 15-year DWI for those reporting more jail time. Conclusion Our prospective study demonstrated that for this convicted DWI offender cohort, classic formulations of deterrence and social-control theories did not account for DWI. However, results suggest that punishment may decrease the likelihood of DWI recidivism. PMID:22269495

  2. Ankudinov Ship Squat Predictions - Part 1: Theory, Parameters, and FORTRAN Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-08-01

    speed version. Results. Figure 4 is a plot of the Ankudinov bow Sb (SbA) and stern Ss (SsA) squat predictions for the modified Bunga Saga Emphat... speeds AnkudMOut.out. ERDC/CHL CHETN-IX-19 August 2009 10 Figure 4. Ankudinov bow and stern squat predictions for modified Bunga Saga Emphat Panamax... speed increased, but not as much as the bow predictions . Bow predic- tions are generally better (closer to PIANC predictions ) than the stern

  3. Constrained control allocation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durham, Wayne C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of the allocation of several flight controls to the generation of specified body-axis moments. The number of controls is greater than the number of moments being controlled, and the ranges of the controls are constrained to certain limits. The controls are assumed to be individually linear in their effect throughout their ranges of motion, and independent of one another in their effects. The geometries of the subset of the constrained controls and of its image in moment space are examined. A direct method of allocating these several controls is presented, that guarantees the maximum possible moment is generated within the constraints of the controls. The results are illustrated by an example problem involving three controls and two moments.

  4. Myrmics Memory Allocator

    SciTech Connect

    Lymperis, S.

    2011-09-23

    MMA is a stand-alone memory management system for MPI clusters. It implements a shared Partitioned Global Address Space, where multiple MPI processes request objects from the allocator and the latter provides them with system-wide unique memory addresses for each object. It provides applications with an intuitive way of managing the memory system in a unified way, thus enabling easier writing of irregular application code.

  5. Prediction of RNA secondary structures: from theory to models and real molecules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuster, Peter

    2006-05-01

    RNA secondary structures are derived from RNA sequences, which are strings built form the natural four letter nucleotide alphabet, {AUGC}. These coarse-grained structures, in turn, are tantamount to constrained strings over a three letter alphabet. Hence, the secondary structures are discrete objects and the number of sequences always exceeds the number of structures. The sequences built from two letter alphabets form perfect structures when the nucleotides can form a base pair, as is the case with {GC} or {AU}, but the relation between the sequences and structures differs strongly from the four letter alphabet. A comprehensive theory of RNA structure is presented, which is based on the concepts of sequence space and shape space, being a space of structures. It sets the stage for modelling processes in ensembles of RNA molecules like evolutionary optimization or kinetic folding as dynamical phenomena guided by mappings between the two spaces. The number of minimum free energy (mfe) structures is always smaller than the number of sequences, even for two letter alphabets. Folding of RNA molecules into mfe energy structures constitutes a non-invertible mapping from sequence space onto shape space. The preimage of a structure in sequence space is defined as its neutral network. Similarly the set of suboptimal structures is the preimage of a sequence in shape space. This set represents the conformation space of a given sequence. The evolutionary optimization of structures in populations is a process taking place in sequence space, whereas kinetic folding occurs in molecular ensembles that optimize free energy in conformation space. Efficient folding algorithms based on dynamic programming are available for the prediction of secondary structures for given sequences. The inverse problem, the computation of sequences for predefined structures, is an important tool for the design of RNA molecules with tailored properties. Simultaneous folding or cofolding of two or more RNA

  6. Cognitive-Aware Modality Allocation in Intelligent Multimodal Information Presentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Yujia; Theune, Mariët; Nijholt, Anton

    Intelligent multimodal presentation (IMMP) systems are able to generate multimodal presentations adaptively, based on the run-time requirements of user-computer interaction. Modality allocation in IMMP system needs to adapt the modality choice to changes in various relevant factors, such as the type of information to be conveyed, the presentation goal, the characteristics of the available modalities, the user profile, the condition of the environment, and the type of user task. In this study, we emphasize that modality allocation in IMMP systems should also take into account the cognitive impacts of modality on human information processing. We first describe several modality-related cognitive and neuropsychological findings. Then a user study is presented to demonstrate the effects of modality on performance, cognitive load and stress, using a high-load and time-critical user task. Finally, we show a possible way to integrate relevant cognitive theories into a computational model that can systematically predict the suitability of a modality choice for a given presentation task.

  7. Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction. Part 1; Comparison of Bearing Life Theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poplawski, Joseph V.; Peters, Steven M.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2001-01-01

    Four rolling-element bearing life theories were chosen for analysis and compared for a simple roller-race geometry model. The life theories were those of Weibull; Lundberg and Palmgren; Ioannides and Harris; and Zaretsky. The analysis without a fatigue limit of Ioannides and Harris is identical to the Lundberg and Palmgren analysis, and the Weibull analysis is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. The resultant predicted life a each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. The least variation in predicted life with Weibull slope comes with the Zaretsky equation. Except for a Weibull slope of 1.11, at which the Weibull equation predicts the highest lives, the highest lives are predicted for the Zaretsky equation. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both the Lundherg-Palmgren and Ioannides-Harris (where tau(sub u) = 0) equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMA/ISO standard. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field. The assumption of as shear stress fatigue limit tau(sub u) results in Hertz stress-life exponents greater than are experimentally verifiable.

  8. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1984-01-01

    Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  9. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1986-01-01

    Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  10. The choice between allocation principles: amplifying when equality dominates.

    PubMed

    Eek, Daniel; Selart, Marcus

    2009-04-01

    One hundred and ninety participants (95 undergraduates and 95 employees) responded to a factorial survey in which a number of case-based organizational allocation tasks were described. Participants were asked to imagine themselves as employees in fictitious organizations and chose among three allocations of employee-development schemes invested by the manager in different work groups. The allocations regarded how such investments should be allocated between two parties. Participants chose twice, once picking the fairest and once the best allocation. One between-subjects factor varied whether the parties represented social (i.e., choosing among allocations between two different work groups) or temporal comparisons (i.e., choosing among allocations between the present and the following year). Another between-subjects factor varied whether participants' in-group was represented by the parties or not. One allocation maximized the outcome to one party, another maximized the joint outcome received by both parties, and a third provided both parties with equal but lower outcomes. It was predicted that equality, although always deficient to both parties, would be the preferred allocation when parties represented social comparisons and when choices were based on fairness. When parties represented temporal comparisons, and when choices were based on preference, maximizing the joint outcome was hypothesized to be the preferred allocation. Results supported these hypotheses. Against what was predicted, whether the in-group was represented by the parties or not did not moderate the results, indicating that participants' allocation preferences were not affected by self-interest. The main message is that people make sensible distinctions between what they prefer and what they regard as fair. The results were the same for participating students who imagined themselves as being employees and participants who were true employees, suggesting that no serious threats to external

  11. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior and Cheating Justifications to Predict Academic Misconduct

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stone, Thomas H.; Jawahar, I. M.; Kisamore, Jennifer L.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show that academic misconduct appears to be on the rise; some research has linked academic misconduct to unethical workplace behaviors. Unlike previous empirically-driven research, this theory-based study seeks to examine the usefulness of a modification of Ajzen's theory of planned behavior to predict…

  12. An Empirical Test of Ecodevelopmental Theory in Predicting HIV Risk Behaviors among Hispanic Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prado, Guillermo; Huang, Shi; Maldonado-Molina, Mildred; Bandiera, Frank; Schwartz, Seth J.; de la Vega, Pura; Brown, C. Hendricks; Pantin, Hilda

    2010-01-01

    Ecodevelopmental theory is a theoretical framework used to explain the interplay among risk and protective processes associated with HIV risk behaviors among adolescents. Although ecodevelopmentally based interventions have been found to be efficacious in preventing HIV risk behaviors among Hispanic youth, this theory has not yet been directly…

  13. How well do the theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behaviour predict intentions and attendance at screening programmes? A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Cooke, Richard; French, David P

    2008-01-01

    Meta-analysis was used to quantify how well the Theories of Reasoned Action and Planned Behaviour have predicted intentions to attend screening programmes and actual attendance behaviour. Systematic literature searches identified 33 studies that were included in the review. Across the studies as a whole, attitudes had a large-sized relationship with intention, while subjective norms and perceived behavioural control (PBC) possessed medium-sized relationships with intention. Intention had a medium-sized relationship with attendance, whereas the PBC-attendance relationship was small sized. Due to heterogeneity in results between studies, moderator analyses were conducted. The moderator variables were (a) type of screening test, (b) location of recruitment, (c) screening cost and (d) invitation to screen. All moderators affected theory of planned behaviour relationships. Suggestions for future research emerging from these results include targeting attitudes to promote intention to screen, a greater use of implementation intentions in screening information and examining the credibility of different screening providers.

  14. Environmental control of carbon allocation matters for modelling forest growth.

    PubMed

    Guillemot, Joannès; Francois, Christophe; Hmimina, Gabriel; Dufrêne, Eric; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K; Soudani, Kamel; Marie, Guillaume; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Delpierre, Nicolas

    2017-04-01

    We aimed to evaluate the importance of modulations of within-tree carbon (C) allocation by water and low-temperature stress for the prediction of annual forest growth with a process-based model. A new C allocation scheme was implemented in the CASTANEA model that accounts for lagged and direct environmental controls of C allocation. Different approaches (static vs dynamic) to modelling C allocation were then compared in a model-data fusion procedure, using satellite-derived leaf production estimates and biometric measurements at c. 10(4) sites. The modelling of the environmental control of C allocation significantly improved the ability of CASTANEA to predict the spatial and year-to-year variability of aboveground forest growth along regional gradients. A significant effect of the previous year's water stress on the C allocation to leaves and wood was reported. Our results also are consistent with a prominent role of the environmental modulation of sink demand in the wood growth of the studied species. Data available at large scales can inform forest models about the processes driving annual and seasonal C allocation. Our results call for a greater consideration of C allocation drivers, especially sink-demand fluctuations, for the simulations of current and future forest productivity with process-based models.

  15. To Set Up a Logistic Regression Prediction Model for Hepatotoxicity of Chinese Herbal Medicines Based on Traditional Chinese Medicine Theory

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Hongjie; Li, Tianhao; Zhan, Sha; Pan, Meilan; Ma, Zhiguo; Li, Chenghua

    2016-01-01

    Aims. To establish a logistic regression (LR) prediction model for hepatotoxicity of Chinese herbal medicines (HMs) based on traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) theory and to provide a statistical basis for predicting hepatotoxicity of HMs. Methods. The correlations of hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic Chinese HMs with four properties, five flavors, and channel tropism were analyzed with chi-square test for two-way unordered categorical data. LR prediction model was established and the accuracy of the prediction by this model was evaluated. Results. The hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic Chinese HMs were related with four properties (p < 0.05), and the coefficient was 0.178 (p < 0.05); also they were related with five flavors (p < 0.05), and the coefficient was 0.145 (p < 0.05); they were not related with channel tropism (p > 0.05). There were totally 12 variables from four properties and five flavors for the LR. Four variables, warm and neutral of the four properties and pungent and salty of five flavors, were selected to establish the LR prediction model, with the cutoff value being 0.204. Conclusions. Warm and neutral of the four properties and pungent and salty of five flavors were the variables to affect the hepatotoxicity. Based on such results, the established LR prediction model had some predictive power for hepatotoxicity of Chinese HMs. PMID:27656240

  16. Two-phase damage theory and crustal rock failure: the theoretical `void' limit, and the prediction of experimental data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricard, Yanick; Bercovici, David

    2003-12-01

    Using a classical averaging approach, we derive a two-phase theory to describe the deformation of a porous material made of a matrix containing voids. The presence and evolution of surface energy at the interface between the solid matrix and voids is taken into account with non-equilibrium thermodynamic considerations that allow storage of deformational work as surface energy on growing or newly created voids. This treatment leads to a simple description of isotropic damage that can be applied to low-cohesion media such as sandstone. In particular, the theory yields two possible solutions wherein samples can either `break' by shear localization with dilation (i.e. void creation), or undergo shear-enhanced compaction (void collapse facilitated by deviatoric stress). For a given deviatoric stress and confining pressure, the dominant solution is that with the largest absolute value of the dilation rate, |Γ|, which thus predicts that shear-localization and dilation occur at low effective pressures, while shear-enhanced compaction occurs at larger effective pressure. Stress trajectories of constant |Γ| represent potential failure envelopes that are ogive- (Gothic-arch-) shaped curves, wherein the ascending branch represents failure by dilation and shear-localization, and the descending branch denotes shear-enhanced compactive failure. The theory further predicts that the onset of dilation preceding shear-localization and failure necessarily occurs at the transition from compactive to dilational states and thus along a line connecting the peaks of constant-|Γ| ogives. Finally, the theory implies that while shear-enhanced compaction first occurs with increasing deviatoric stress (at large effective pressure), dilation will occur at higher deviatoric stresses. All of these predictions in fact compare very successfully with various experimental data. Indeed, the theory leads to a normalization where all the data of failure envelopes and dilation thresholds collapse to a

  17. Predicting and understanding undergraduate students' intentions to gamble in a casino using an extended model of the theory of reasoned action and the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hyung-Seok

    2013-06-01

    Given that current television programming contains numerous gambling portrayals, it is imperative to understand whether and to what extent these gambling behaviors in media influence individuals' beliefs, attitudes, and intentions. This study explores an extended model of the theory of reasoned action (TRA) by including gambling media exposure as a distal, mediating and mediated factor in predicting undergraduate students' intentions to gamble in a casino. Findings show that the extended model of TRA clearly indicates that the constructs of gambling media exposure, prior gambling experience, and level of gambling addiction contribute to the prediction of undergraduate students' casino gambling intentions. Theoretical implications of gambling media effects and practical implications for public policy are discussed, and future research directions are outlined.

  18. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups—what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    PubMed Central

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analyzed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given. PMID:25505432

  19. Modeling evapotranspiration based on plant hydraulic theory can predict spatial variability across an elevation gradient and link to biogeochemical fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackay, D. S.; Frank, J.; Reed, D.; Whitehouse, F.; Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.; Massman, W. J.; Sperry, J. S.

    2012-04-01

    In woody plant systems transpiration is often the dominant component of total evapotranspiration, and so it is key to understanding water and energy cycles. Moreover, transpiration is tightly coupled to carbon and nutrient fluxes, and so it is also vital to understanding spatial variability of biogeochemical fluxes. However, the spatial variability of transpiration and its links to biogeochemical fluxes, within- and among-ecosystems, has been a challenge to constrain because of complex feedbacks between physical and biological controls. Plant hydraulics provides an emerging theory with the rigor needed to develop testable hypotheses and build useful models for scaling these coupled fluxes from individual plants to regional scales. This theory predicts that vegetative controls over water, energy, carbon, and nutrient fluxes can be determined from the limitation of plant water transport through the soil-xylem-stomata pathway. Limits to plant water transport can be predicted from measurable plant structure and function (e.g., vulnerability to cavitation). We present a next-generation coupled transpiration-biogeochemistry model based on this emerging theory. The model, TREEScav, is capable of predicting transpiration, along with carbon and nutrient flows, constrained by plant structure and function. The model incorporates tightly coupled mechanisms of the demand and supply of water through the soil-xylem-stomata system, with the feedbacks to photosynthesis and utilizable carbohydrates. The model is evaluated by testing it against transpiration and carbon flux data along an elevation gradient of woody plants comprising sagebrush steppe, mid-elevation lodgepole pine forests, and subalpine spruce/fir forests in the Rocky Mountains. The model accurately predicts transpiration and carbon fluxes as measured from gas exchange, sap flux, and eddy covariance towers. The results of this work demonstrate that credible spatial predictions of transpiration and related

  20. Research on Prediction Model of Time Series Based on Fuzzy Theory and Genetic Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao-qin, Wu

    Fuzzy theory is one of the newly adduced self-adaptive strategies,which is applied to dynamically adjust the parameters o genetic algorithms for the purpose of enhancing the performance.In this paper, the financial time series analysis and forecasting as the main case study to the theory of soft computing technology framework that focuses on the fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms(FGA) as a method of integration. the financial time series forecasting model based on fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms was built. the ShangZheng index cards as an example. The experimental results show that FGA perform s much better than BP neural network, not only in the precision, but also in the searching speed.The hybrid algorithm has a strong feasibility and superiority.

  1. Extensions of Island Biogeography Theory predict the scaling of functional trait composition with habitat area and isolation.

    PubMed

    Jacquet, Claire; Mouillot, David; Kulbicki, Michel; Gravel, Dominique

    2017-02-01

    The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts how area and isolation influence species richness equilibrium on insular habitats. However, the TIB remains silent about functional trait composition and provides no information on the scaling of functional diversity with area, an observation that is now documented in many systems. To fill this gap, we develop a probabilistic approach to predict the distribution of a trait as a function of habitat area and isolation, extending the TIB beyond the traditional species-area relationship. We compare model predictions to the body-size distribution of piscivorous and herbivorous fishes found on tropical reefs worldwide. We find that small and isolated reefs have a higher proportion of large-sized species than large and connected reefs. We also find that knowledge of species body-size and trophic position improves the predictions of fish occupancy on tropical reefs, supporting both the allometric and trophic theory of island biogeography. The integration of functional ecology to island biogeography is broadly applicable to any functional traits and provides a general probabilistic approach to study the scaling of trait distribution with habitat area and isolation.

  2. Predicting intended use of voluntary HIV counselling and testing services among Tanzanian teachers using the theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Kakoko, Deodatus Conatus; Astrøm, A N; Lugoe, Wycliffe L; Lie, Gro T

    2006-08-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) provides a conceptual model for understanding individual cognitions that influence behavioural intentions and enactment of the actual behaviours. This study examined the applicability of the TPB and the additional predictive role of perceived risk in predicting intended use of voluntary HIV counselling and testing (VCT) services. We conducted a cross-sectional questionnaire survey among 918 primary school teachers in the Mwanza region, Tanzania between September 2003 and November 2003. Analysis was based on 737 teachers (mean age 38.9) who had never tested for HIV. Results of the hierarchical regression analysis indicate that perceived behavioural control and attitude toward using VCT services were significant predictors of intention to use VCT services in the TPB model. Perceived behavioural control added 12% of variance to intention over and above attitudes and subjective norms, while perceived risk added 3% of variance. Socio-economic status did not moderate the predictive value of the TPB components. The present study demonstrates that the TPB is a useful conceptual framework for predicting intended use of HIV counselling and testing services among Tanzanian teachers. A theory-based VCT intervention programme among Tanzanian teachers should mainly focus on reducing social and psychological barriers related to the use of VCT services.

  3. Main Predictions of the Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicidal Behavior: Empirical Tests in Two Samples of Young Adults

    PubMed Central

    Joiner, Thomas E.; Van Orden, Kimberly A.; Witte, Tracy K.; Selby, Edward A.; Ribeiro, Jessica D.; Lewis, Robyn; Rudd, M. David

    2010-01-01

    The interpersonal-psychological theory of suicidal behavior (Joiner, 2005) makes two overarching predictions: 1) that perceptions of burdening others and of social alienation combine to instill the desire for death; and 2) that individuals will not act on the desire for death unless they have developed the capability to do so – a capability that develops through exposure and thus habituation to painful and/or fearsome experiences, and which is posited by the theory to be necessary to overcome powerful self-preservation pressures. Two studies test these predictions. In Study 1, the interaction of (low) family social support (cf. social alienation or low belonging) and feeling like one does not matter (cf. perceived burdensomeness) predicted current suicidal ideation, beyond depression indices. In Study 2, the three-way interaction between a measure of low belonging, a measure of perceived burdensomeness, and lifetime number of suicide attempts (viewed as a strong predictor of the level of acquired capability for suicide) predicted current suicide attempt (vs. ideation) among a clinical sample of suicidal young adults, again beyond depression indices and other key covariates. Implications for the understanding, treatment, and prevention of suicidal behavior are discussed. PMID:19685959

  4. NIKOLAI NIKOLAEVICH LUZIN: Luzin's contribution to the descriptive theory of sets and functions: concepts, problems, predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uspenskii, V. A.

    1985-06-01

    This paper is based on the author's lecture "N.N. Luzin and the descriptive theory of sets" delivered on 13 December 1983 at the meeting of the Moscow Mathematical Society dedicated to the centenary of Luzin's birth. The paper is aimed at a wide readership and is regarded by the author as one of the means of introducing a reader to the sphere of ideas of the descriptive theory.

  5. Resource Allocation Within Universities. Occasional Paper 3. SDU Staff Development in Universities Programme.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orton, F. J.

    Resource allocation in universities is analyzed based on economic theory and a theory of organizational behavior in universities. Basic methods of reaching decisions regarding allocation are intuition and numbers and combinations of the two. The intuitive method assumes a university committee can judge its needs. The numerical method employs a…

  6. Social-cognitive theories for predicting physical activity behaviours of employed women with and without young children.

    PubMed

    Tavares, Leonor S; Plotnikoff, Ronald C; Loucaides, Constantinos

    2009-03-01

    Chronic disease interventions for women have been understudied in the workplace domain. Understanding the role of cognitions in individual behaviour can help motivate change and suggest directions for achieving improvements in health. The purpose of this study was to identify psychosocial constructs and social-cognitive theories [e.g. Transtheoretical model (TTM), Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and Social Cognitive Theory (SCT)] that are most salient for explaining physical activity behaviour among employed women (n = 1183). Demographic information, and social-cognitive measures related to physical activity, intention and behaviours (e.g. stage of change, energy expenditure) were assessed. A series of multiple regression analyses predicting intention, energy expenditure and stage of change were conducted separately for: (1) women with young children (n = 302), and (2) women without young children (n = 881) for each of the respective social-cognitive theories. Although taken as a whole the results were relatively similar between the two sub-groups of women for each of the socio-cognitive theories examined in this study, differences were observed in the relative contributions of the theoretical constructs between the two sub-groups. Results also indicate that self-efficacy and intention were the strongest predictors of behaviour among both women with and without young children. The explained variances (R(2)) for the theories examined in this study for different sub-groups ranged from 16 to 60%, generally reflecting what has been reported in other studies within the physical activity domain. The results of this study could be useful in guiding future research and in designing physical activity intervention programs for these specific population groups. Integrating approaches of individual lifestyle change while addressing issues related to creating supportive environments for women in various life stages is a suggested strategy

  7. A predictive processing theory of sensorimotor contingencies: Explaining the puzzle of perceptual presence and its absence in synesthesia.

    PubMed

    Seth, Anil K

    2014-01-01

    Normal perception involves experiencing objects within perceptual scenes as real, as existing in the world. This property of "perceptual presence" has motivated "sensorimotor theories" which understand perception to involve the mastery of sensorimotor contingencies. However, the mechanistic basis of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery has remained unclear. Sensorimotor theory also struggles to explain instances of perception, such as synesthesia, that appear to lack perceptual presence and for which relevant sensorimotor contingencies are difficult to identify. On alternative "predictive processing" theories, perceptual content emerges from probabilistic inference on the external causes of sensory signals, however, this view has addressed neither the problem of perceptual presence nor synesthesia. Here, I describe a theory of predictive perception of sensorimotor contingencies which (1) accounts for perceptual presence in normal perception, as well as its absence in synesthesia, and (2) operationalizes the notion of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery. The core idea is that generative models underlying perception incorporate explicitly counterfactual elements related to how sensory inputs would change on the basis of a broad repertoire of possible actions, even if those actions are not performed. These "counterfactually-rich" generative models encode sensorimotor contingencies related to repertoires of sensorimotor dependencies, with counterfactual richness determining the degree of perceptual presence associated with a stimulus. While the generative models underlying normal perception are typically counterfactually rich (reflecting a large repertoire of possible sensorimotor dependencies), those underlying synesthetic concurrents are hypothesized to be counterfactually poor. In addition to accounting for the phenomenology of synesthesia, the theory naturally accommodates phenomenological differences between a range of experiential states

  8. Information theory provides a comprehensive framework for the evaluation of protein structure predictions

    PubMed Central

    Swanson, Rosemarie; Vannucci, Marina; Tsai, Jerry W.

    2008-01-01

    Protein structure prediction has a number of important ad hoc similarity measures for evaluating predictions, but would benefit from a measure that is able to provide a common framework for a broad range of comparisons. Here we show that a mutual information-like measure can provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating protein structure prediction of all types. We discuss the concept of information, its application to secondary structure, and the obstacle to applying it to 3D structure. Based on insights from the secondary structure case, we present an approach to work around the 3D difficulties, and develop a method to measure the mutual information provided by a 3D structure prediction. We integrate the evaluation of all types of protein structure prediction into a single frame work, and compare the amount of information provided by various prediction methods, including secondary structure prediction. Within this broadened framework, the idea that structure is better preserved than sequence during evolution is evaluated quantitatively for the globin family. A nearly perfect sequence match in the globin family corresponds to about 300 bits of information, whereas a nearly perfect structural match for the same two proteins corresponds to about 2500 bits of information, where bits of information describes the probability of obtaining a match of similar closeness by chance. Mutual information provides both a theoretical basis for evaluating structure similarity and an explanatory surround for existing similarity measures. PMID:18704942

  9. A critical evaluation of theories for predicting microcracking in composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nairn, John A.; Hu, Shoufeng; Bark, Jong S.

    1993-01-01

    We present experimental results on 21 different layups of Hercules AS4 carbon fiber/3501-6 epoxy laminates. All laminates had 90 deg plies; some had them in the middle, while some had them on a free surface. During tensile loading, the first form of damage in all laminates was microcracking of the 90 deg plies. For each laminate, we recorded both the crack density and the complete distribution of crack spacings as a function of the applied load. By rearranging various microcracking theories, we developed a master-curve approach that permitted plotting the results from all laminates on a single plot. By comparing master-curve plots for different theories, it was possible to critically evaluate the quality of those theories. We found that a critical-energy-release-rate criterion calculated using a 2D variational stress analysis gave the best results. All microcracking theories based on a strength-failure criteria gave poor results. All microcracking theories using 1D stress analyses, regardless of the failure criterion, also gave poor results.

  10. An online study combining the constructs from the theory of planned behaviour and protection motivation theory in predicting intention to test for chlamydia in two testing contexts.

    PubMed

    Powell, Rachael; Pattison, Helen M; Francis, Jill J

    2016-01-01

    Chlamydia is a common sexually transmitted infection that has potentially serious consequences unless detected and treated early. The health service in the UK offers clinic-based testing for chlamydia but uptake is low. Identifying the predictors of testing behaviours may inform interventions to increase uptake. Self-tests for chlamydia may facilitate testing and treatment in people who avoid clinic-based testing. Self-testing and being tested by a health care professional (HCP) involve two contrasting contexts that may influence testing behaviour. However, little is known about how predictors of behaviour differ as a function of context. In this study, theoretical models of behaviour were used to assess factors that may predict intention to test in two different contexts: self-testing and being tested by a HCP. Individuals searching for or reading about chlamydia testing online were recruited using Google Adwords. Participants completed an online questionnaire that addressed previous testing behaviour and measured constructs of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Protection Motivation Theory, which propose a total of eight possible predictors of intention. The questionnaire was completed by 310 participants. Sufficient data for multiple regression were provided by 102 and 118 respondents for self-testing and testing by a HCP respectively. Intention to self-test was predicted by vulnerability and self-efficacy, with a trend-level effect for response efficacy. Intention to be tested by a HCP was predicted by vulnerability, attitude and subjective norm. Thus, intentions to carry out two testing behaviours with very similar goals can have different predictors depending on test context. We conclude that interventions to increase self-testing should be based on evidence specifically related to test context.

  11. Computationally efficient control allocation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durham, Wayne (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A computationally efficient method for calculating near-optimal solutions to the three-objective, linear control allocation problem is disclosed. The control allocation problem is that of distributing the effort of redundant control effectors to achieve some desired set of objectives. The problem is deemed linear if control effectiveness is affine with respect to the individual control effectors. The optimal solution is that which exploits the collective maximum capability of the effectors within their individual physical limits. Computational efficiency is measured by the number of floating-point operations required for solution. The method presented returned optimal solutions in more than 90% of the cases examined; non-optimal solutions returned by the method were typically much less than 1% different from optimal and the errors tended to become smaller than 0.01% as the number of controls was increased. The magnitude of the errors returned by the present method was much smaller than those that resulted from either pseudo inverse or cascaded generalized inverse solutions. The computational complexity of the method presented varied linearly with increasing numbers of controls; the number of required floating point operations increased from 5.5 i, to seven times faster than did the minimum-norm solution (the pseudoinverse), and at about the same rate as did the cascaded generalized inverse solution. The computational requirements of the method presented were much better than that of previously described facet-searching methods which increase in proportion to the square of the number of controls.

  12. Blade life span, structural investment, and nutrient allocation in giant kelp.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Gabriel E; Reed, Daniel C; Holbrook, Sally J

    2016-10-01

    The turnover of plant biomass largely determines the amount of energy flowing through an ecosystem and understanding the processes that regulate turnover has been of interest to ecologists for decades. Leaf life span theory has proven useful in explaining patterns of leaf turnover in relation to resource availability, but the predictions of this theory have not been tested for macroalgae. We measured blade life span, size, thickness, nitrogen content, pigment content, and maximum photosynthetic rate (P max) in the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) along a strong resource (light) gradient to test whether the predictions of leaf life span theory applied to this alga. We found that shorter blade life spans and larger blade areas were associated with increased light availability. In addition, nitrogen and P max decreased with blade age, and their decrease was greater in shorter lived blades. These observations are generally consistent with patterns observed for higher plants and the prevailing theory of leaf life span. By contrast, variation observed in pigments of giant kelp was inconsistent with that predicted by leaf life span theory, as blades growing in the most heavily shaded portion of the forest had the lowest chlorophyll content. This result may reflect the dual role of macroalgal blades in carbon fixation and nutrient absorption and the ability of giant kelp to modify blade physiology to optimize the acquisition of light and nutrients. Thus, the marine environment may place demands on resource acquisition and allocation that have not been previously considered with respect to leaf life span optimization.

  13. Predicting actual weight loss: A review of the determinants according to the theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Chung, Louisa Ming Yan; Fong, Shirley Siu Ming

    2015-01-01

    Weight reduction that corresponds with lifestyle modification is difficult to foster. The theory of planned behaviour has been actively cited in explaining health-related behaviour. This review evaluated the application of the theory of planned behaviour to weight-loss behaviour. Among the three reviewed papers, cross-sectional survey designs and subjective outcome measurements were commonly applied. All of the studies recruited obese female adults as participants, limiting the generalisability of the studies' findings. The theory of planned behaviour can be effectively applied in weight-reduction programmes targeting female obese patients. This review confirmed critiques citing the limitations of experimental studies, the subjective measurement of behaviour and short follow-up periods.

  14. How Fuzzy-Trace Theory Predicts True and False Memories for Words, Sentences, and Narratives.

    PubMed

    Reyna, Valerie F; Corbin, Jonathan C; Weldon, Rebecca B; Brainerd, Charles J

    2016-03-01

    Fuzzy-trace theory posits independent verbatim and gist memory processes, a distinction that has implications for such applied topics as eyewitness testimony. This distinction between precise, literal verbatim memory and meaning-based, intuitive gist accounts for memory paradoxes including dissociations between true and false memory, false memories outlasting true memories, and developmental increases in false memory. We provide an overview of fuzzy-trace theory, and, using mathematical modeling, also present results demonstrating verbatim and gist memory in true and false recognition of narrative sentences and inferences. Results supported fuzzy-trace theory's dual-process view of memory: verbatim memory was relied on to reject meaning-consistent, but unpresented, sentences (via recollection rejection). However, verbatim memory was often not retrieved, and gist memory supported acceptance of these sentences (via similarity judgment and phantom recollection). Thus, mathematical models of words can be extended to explain memory for complex stimuli, such as narratives, the kind of memory interrogated in law.

  15. Layered synthetic microstructures as Bragg diffractors for X rays and extreme ultraviolet - Theory and predicted performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Underwood, J. H.; Barbee, T. W., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    The theory of X-ray diffraction by periodic structures is applied to the layered synthetic microstructures (LSMs) made possible by recent developments in thin film technology, and approximate formulas for estimating their performance are presented. A more complete computation scheme based on optical multilayer theory is also described, and it is shown that the diffracting properties may be tailored to specific applications by adjusting the refractive indices and thicknesses of the component layers. The theory may be modified to take account of imperfections in the LMS structure, and the properties of nonperiodic structures thereby computed. Structures with high integrated reflectivity constructed according to the methods defined have potential application in many areas of X-ray or EUV research and instrumentation.

  16. Development of an aerodyanmic theory capable of predicting surface loads on slender wings with vortex flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gloss, B. B.; Johnson, F. T.

    1976-01-01

    The Boeing Commercial Airplane Company developed an inviscid three-dimensional lifting surface method that shows promise in being able to accurately predict loads, subsonic and supersonic, on wings with leading-edge separation and reattachment.

  17. Application of social cognitive theory in predicting childhood obesity prevention behaviors in overweight and obese Iranian adolescents.

    PubMed

    Bagherniya, Mohammad; Sharma, Manoj; Mostafavi, Firoozeh; Keshavarz, Seyed Ali

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this cross-sectional study was to use social cognitive theory to predict overweight and obesity behaviors in adolescent girls in Iran. Valid and reliable questionnaires about nutritional and physical activity regarding social cognitive theory constructs (self-efficacy, social support, outcome expectations, and outcome expectancies), dietary habits, and physical activity were filled by 172 overweight and obese girl adolescents. The mean age and body mass index were 13.4 ± 0.6 years and 28.2 ± 3.6 kg/m(2), respectively. Body mass index was significantly related to hours of television viewing (p = .003) and grams of junk food (p = .001). None of the social cognitive theory constructs were found to be significant predictors for servings of fruits and vegetables, grams of junk foods, minutes of physical activity, and hours of sedentary behaviors. In future, more culturally appropriate models need to be developed in Iran that can explain and predict prevention behaviors of obesity in Iranian adolescents.

  18. Predicting mothers' decisions to introduce complementary feeding at 6 months. An investigation using an extended theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Kyra; Daniels, Lynne; White, Katherine M; Murray, Nicole; Walsh, Anne

    2011-06-01

    In Australia and other developed countries there is poor adherence to guidelines recommending the introduction of complementary feeding to infants at 6 months of age. We aimed to investigate, via adopting a theory of planned behaviour framework and incorporating additional normative and demographic influences, mothers' complementary feeding intentions and behaviour. Participants were 375 primiparas who completed an initial questionnaire (infant age 13±3 weeks) that assessed the theory of planned behaviour constructs of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control, as well as group norm and additional maternal and infant variables of mothers' age, education level, weight status perception, current maternal feeding practices, and infant birth weight. Approximately, 3 months after completion of the main questionnaire, mothers completed a follow-up questionnaire that assessed the age in months at which the infant was first introduced to solids. The theory of planned behaviour variables of attitude and subjective norm, along with group norm, predicted intentions, with intention, mothers' age (older more likely), and weight status perception (overweight less likely) predicting behaviour. Overall, the results highlight the importance of attitudes, normative influences, and individual characteristics in complementary feeding decision-making which should be considered when designing interventions aimed at improving adherence to current maternal feeding guidelines.

  19. Interpersonal-Psychological Theory, Alexithymia, and Personality Predict Suicide Ideation among Maladjusted Soldiers in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Huang, Kai-Cheng; Tzeng, Dong-Sheng; Lin, Chi-Hung; Chung, Wei-Ching

    2016-11-24

    This case-control study enrolled 226 maladjusted soldiers and 229 controls to investigate the impact of the interpersonal-psychological theory of suicide, alexithymia, personality, and childhood trauma on suicide risk among Taiwanese soldiers. Assessments included the Toronto Alexithymia Scale, Eysenck Personality Inventory, Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview, and Brief Symptom Rating Scale. In addition to thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness, other risks included less extraversion with higher neuroticism, higher alexithymia, poor academic performance, domestic violence, and life-threatening events. Our study demonstrates the interaction of the interpersonal-psychological theory and other suicide risk factors in Taiwanese soldiers.

  20. Exploration of pathological prediction of chronic kidney diseases by a novel theory of bi-directional probability.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yuan; Luo, Min; Xiao, Li; Zhu, Xue-Jing; Wang, Chang; Fu, Xiao; Yuan, Shu-Guang; Xiao, Fang; Liu, Hong; Dong, Zheng; Liu, Fu-You; Sun, Lin

    2016-08-25

    In the clinic, the pathological types of chronic kidney diseases (CKD) are considered references for choosing treatment protocols. From a statistical viewpoint, a non-invasive method to predict pathological types of CKD is a focus of our work. In the current study, following a frequency analysis of the clinical indices of 588 CKD patients in the department of nephrology, a third-grade class-A hospital, a novel theory is proposed: "bi-directional cumulative probability dichotomy". Further, two models for the prediction and differential diagnosis of CKD pathological type are established. The former indicates an occurrence probability of the pathological types, and the latter indicates an occurrence of CKD pathological type according to logistic binary regression. To verify the models, data were collected from 135 patients, and the results showed that the highest accuracy rate on membranous nephropathy (MN-100%), followed by IgA nephropathy (IgAN-83.33%) and mild lesion type (MLN-73.53%), whereas lower prediction accuracy was observed for mesangial proliferative glomerulonephritis (0%) and focal segmental sclerosis type (21.74%). The models of bi-directional probability prediction and differential diagnosis indicate a good prediction value in MN, IgAN and MLN and may be considered alternative methods for the pathological discrimination of CKD patients who are unable to undergo renal biopsy.

  1. Social Cognitive Career Theory and the Prediction of Interests and Choice Goals in the Computing Disciplines

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lent, Robert W.; Lopez, Antonio M., Jr.; Lopez, Frederick G.; Sheu, Hung-Bin

    2008-01-01

    We tested the fit of the social cognitive choice model [Lent, R.W., Brown, S.D., & Hackett, G. (1994). "Toward a unifying social cognitive theory of career and academic interest, choice, and performance [Monograph]." "Journal of Vocational Behavior," 45, 79-122] to the data across gender, educational level, and type of university among students in…

  2. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict Mothers' Intentions to Vaccinate Their Daughters against HPV

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Askelson, Natoshia M.; Campo, Shelly; Lowe, John B.; Smith, Sandi; Dennis, Leslie K.; Andsager, Julie

    2010-01-01

    This study assessed mothers' intentions to vaccinate their daughters against human papillomavirus (HPV) using the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Experience with sexually transmitted infections (STIs), beliefs about the vaccine encouraging sexual activity, and perception of daughters' risk for HPV were also examined for a relationship with…

  3. A Pilot Study Applying Social Cognitive Theory to Predict HPV Vaccination Intentions of Unvaccinated College Women

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Catalano, Hannah Priest; Knowlden, Adam P.; Sharma, Manoj; Franzidis, Alexia

    2016-01-01

    Although college-aged women are at high risk for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, many college women remain unvaccinated against HPV. Testing health behavior theory can assist sexuality educators in identifying behavioral antecedents to promote behavior change within an intervention. The purpose of this pilot study was to utilize social…

  4. Predictions about Bisymmetry and Cross-Modal Matches from Global Theories of Subjective Intensities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luce, R. Duncan

    2012-01-01

    The article first summarizes the assumptions of Luce (2004, 2008) for inherently binary (2-D) stimuli (e.g., the ears and eyes) that lead to a "p-additive," order-preserving psychophysical representation. Next, a somewhat parallel theory for unary (1-D) signals is developed for intensity attributes such as linear extent, vibration to finger, and…

  5. Predicting Aerobic versus Resistance Exercise Using the Theory of Planned Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bryan, Angela D.; Rocheleau, Courtney A.

    2002-01-01

    Tested the theory of planned behavior (TPB) in aerobic versus resistance training, investigating relationships between TPB variables, extroversion, and perceived health among college students who completed initial and follow-up measurements and provided reasons for exercise. TPB variables, extroversion, and perceived health collectively accounted…

  6. Dopamine Receptor D4 Gene Variation Predicts Preschoolers' Developing Theory of Mind

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lackner, Christine; Sabbagh, Mark A.; Hallinan, Elizabeth; Liu, Xudong; Holden, Jeanette J. A.

    2012-01-01

    Individual differences in preschoolers' understanding that human action is caused by internal mental states, or representational theory of mind (RTM), are heritable, as are developmental disorders such as autism in which RTM is particularly impaired. We investigated whether polymorphisms of genes affecting dopamine (DA) utilization and metabolism…

  7. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior to Explain and Predict Behavior Intentions in Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Cheng-Lung

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to use the theory of planned behavior to verify undergraduates' behavioral intentions regarding their participation in aquatic sports. Undergraduates in Taiwan serve as the research subjects and a survey method employs questionnaires. A total of 200 valid questionnaires were received out of 230, thus giving a valid response rate of…

  8. Application of Investment Theory to Predicting Maintenance of the Intent to Stay among Freshmen

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barry, Chloe Y. H.; Okun, Morris A.

    2012-01-01

    Recently, it has been suggested that constructs from different disciplines should be incorporated into Tinto's (1993) sociological model of the determinants of departure from college (Ackerman & Schibrowsky, 2007). We tested the hypothesis that variables derived from Rusbult's (1983) social-psychological investment theory contribute, above and…

  9. Predicting Teachers' Intentions to Implement School-Based Assessment Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yan, Zi

    2014-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to explore the Hong Kong teachers' intentions to implement school-based assessment (SBA) and the predictors of those intentions. A total of 280 teachers from Hong Kong secondary schools who had been involved in SBA were surveyed. Rasch-calibrated teacher measures were calculated for each of the 6…

  10. Predicting Intentions to Use Condoms Using Gender, Sexual Experience, and the Theory of Planned Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wise, Daniel; Goggin, Kathy; Gerkovich, Mary; Metcalf, Kimberly; Kennedy, Sarah

    2006-01-01

    This study examined condom use intentions among a large diverse group of African American adolescents and provides useful information to assist in the development of effective HIV prevention interventions. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), we explored which constructs are important in shaping intentions to use condoms for younger versus…

  11. Applications of kinetic theory. Predictive models of circulating fluidized bed combustors: Tenth technical progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Gidaspow, D.

    1992-01-01

    The overall objective of this investigation is to develop experimentally verified models for circulating fluidized bed (CFB) combustors. This report presents the author`s derivation of analytical solutions useful in understanding the operation of a CFB. The report is in a form of a chapter that reviews the kinetic theory applications.

  12. Predicting Online Learning Success: Applying the Situational Theory of Publics to the Virtual Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kruger-Ross, Matthew J.; Waters, Richard D.

    2013-01-01

    Following the trend of increased interest by students to take online courses and by institutions to offer them, scholars have taken many different approaches to understand what makes one student successful in online learning while another may fail. This study proposes that using the situational theory of publics will provide a better understanding…

  13. The Theory of Planned Behaviour: Predicting Pre-Service Teachers' Teaching Behaviour towards a Constructivist Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Carrie Lijuan; Ha, Amy S.

    2013-01-01

    The two-pronged purpose of this study is to examine factors determining the teaching behaviour of pre-service physical education (PE) teachers towards a constructivist approach, likewise referred to as teaching games for understanding (TGfU). Theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was applied to guide the formulation of research purpose and design. Six…

  14. Self-Identity as a Component of the Theory of Planned Behaviour in Predicting Physical Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ries, Francis; Hein, Vello; Pihu, Maret; Armenta, Jose Manuel Sevillano

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the role of self-identity, defined as salient and enduring aspects of one's self-perception (Sparks, 2000), in relation to adolescent physical activity (PA) intentions within the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). School students aged 12 to 18 from two cultural groups (Estonia and Spain) completed measures of…

  15. How Well Does the S-Web Theory Predict In-Situ Observations of the Slow Solar Wind?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, A. K.; Antiochos, S. K.; Linker, J.; Zurbuchen, T.

    2014-12-01

    The S-Web theory provides a physical explanation for the origin and properties of the slow solar wind, particularly its composition. The theory proposes that magnetic reconnection along topologically complex boundaries between open and closed magnetic fields on the sun releases plasma from closed magnetic field regions into the solar wind at latitudes away from the heliospheric current sheet. Such a wind would have elevated charge states compared to the fast wind and an elemental composition resembling the closed-field corona. This theory is currently being tested using time-dependent, high-resolution, MHD simulations, however comparisons to in-situ observations play an essential role in testing and understanding slow-wind release mechanisms. In order to determine the relationship between S-Web signatures and the observed, slow solar wind, we compare plasma data from the ACE and Ulysses spacecraft to solutions from the steady-state models created at Predictive Science, Inc., which use observed magnetic field distributions on the sun as a lower boundary condition. We discuss the S-Web theory in light of our results and the significance of the S-Web for interpreting current and future solar wind observations. This work was supported, in part, by the NASA TR&T and SR&T programs.

  16. Predicting safe sex: Assessment of autoregressive and cross-lagged effects within the Theory of Planned Behavior.

    PubMed

    Eggers, Sander M; Taylor, Myra; Sathiparsad, Reshma; Bos, Arjan Er; de Vries, Hein

    2015-11-01

    Despite its popularity, few studies have assessed the temporal stability and cross-lagged effects of the Theory of Planned Behavior factors: Attitude, subjective norms and self-efficacy. For this study, 298 adolescent learners from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, filled out a Theory of Planned Behavior questionnaire on teenage pregnancy at baseline and after 6 months. Structural equation modeling showed that there were considerable cross-lagged effects between attitude and subjective norms. Temporal stability was moderate with test-retest correlations ranging from 0.37 to 0.51 and the model was able to predict intentions to have safe sex (R2 = 0.69) Implications for practice and future research are discussed.

  17. Predicting differences in the perceived relevance of crime's costs and benefits in a test of rational choice theory.

    PubMed

    Bouffard, Jeffrey A

    2007-08-01

    Previous hypothetical scenario tests of rational choice theory have presented all participants with the same set of consequences, implicitly assuming that these consequences would be relevant for each individual. Recent research demonstrates that those researcher-presented consequences do not accurately reflect those considered by study participants and that there is individual variation in the relevance of various consequences. Despite this and some theoretical propositions that such differences should exist, little empirical research has explored the possibility of predicting such variation. This study allows participants to develop their own set of relevant consequences for three hypothetical offenses and examines how several demographic and theoretical variables impact those consequences' relevance. Exploratory results suggest individual factors impact the perceived relevance of several cost and benefit types, even among a relatively homogenous sample of college students. Implications for future tests of rational choice theory, as well as policy implications are discussed.

  18. Research on allocation efficiency of the daisy chain allocation algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Jingping; Zhang, Weiguo

    2013-03-01

    With the improvement of the aircraft performance in reliability, maneuverability and survivability, the number of the control effectors increases a lot. How to distribute the three-axis moments into the control surfaces reasonably becomes an important problem. Daisy chain method is simple and easy to be carried out in the design of the allocation system. But it can not solve the allocation problem for entire attainable moment subset. For the lateral-directional allocation problem, the allocation efficiency of the daisy chain can be directly measured by the area of its subset of attainable moments. Because of the non-linear allocation characteristic, the subset of attainable moments of daisy-chain method is a complex non-convex polygon, and it is difficult to solve directly. By analyzing the two-dimensional allocation problems with a "micro-element" idea, a numerical calculation algorithm is proposed to compute the area of the non-convex polygon. In order to improve the allocation efficiency of the algorithm, a genetic algorithm with the allocation efficiency chosen as the fitness function is proposed to find the best pseudo-inverse matrix.

  19. [Prevention of HIV transmission: application of the theory of reasoned action to the prediction of condom use].

    PubMed

    Diaz-loving, R; Rivera Aragon, S

    1995-01-01

    1203 sexually active workers in six government agencies in Mexico City participated in a study of the applicability of the theory of reasoned action to prediction of condom use for AIDS prevention. The theory of reasoned action is one of a series of models of attitudes that have had consistent success in predicting various types of intentions and behaviors, especially in the area of sexual and contraceptive behavior. The theory specifies that the intention of executing a particular behavior is determined as the function of attitude toward the behavior and a social factor termed "subjective norm", referring to the perception of social pressure supporting or opposing a particular behavior. The 1203 subjects, who ranged from low to high educational and socioeconomic status, completed self-administered questionnaires concerning their beliefs, attitudes, and intentions regarding condom use, motivation to comply with the subjective norm, and actual condom use. Various scales were constructed to measure the different components of the theory. Hierarchical regression analysis was carried out separately for men and women and for condom use with regular or occasional partners. The model explained over 20% of condom use behavior. The total explained variance was similar in all groups, but the components of the model determining the variance were different. Personal beliefs and attitudes were more important in reference to occasional sexual partners, but the subjective norm and motivation to comply with the reference group were more important with regular sexual partners. The results demonstrate the need for interventions to be adapted to gender groups and in reference to regular or occasional partners.

  20. A predictive processing theory of sensorimotor contingencies: Explaining the puzzle of perceptual presence and its absence in synesthesia

    PubMed Central

    Seth, Anil K.

    2014-01-01

    Normal perception involves experiencing objects within perceptual scenes as real, as existing in the world. This property of “perceptual presence” has motivated “sensorimotor theories” which understand perception to involve the mastery of sensorimotor contingencies. However, the mechanistic basis of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery has remained unclear. Sensorimotor theory also struggles to explain instances of perception, such as synesthesia, that appear to lack perceptual presence and for which relevant sensorimotor contingencies are difficult to identify. On alternative “predictive processing” theories, perceptual content emerges from probabilistic inference on the external causes of sensory signals, however, this view has addressed neither the problem of perceptual presence nor synesthesia. Here, I describe a theory of predictive perception of sensorimotor contingencies which (1) accounts for perceptual presence in normal perception, as well as its absence in synesthesia, and (2) operationalizes the notion of sensorimotor contingencies and their mastery. The core idea is that generative models underlying perception incorporate explicitly counterfactual elements related to how sensory inputs would change on the basis of a broad repertoire of possible actions, even if those actions are not performed. These “counterfactually-rich” generative models encode sensorimotor contingencies related to repertoires of sensorimotor dependencies, with counterfactual richness determining the degree of perceptual presence associated with a stimulus. While the generative models underlying normal perception are typically counterfactually rich (reflecting a large repertoire of possible sensorimotor dependencies), those underlying synesthetic concurrents are hypothesized to be counterfactually poor. In addition to accounting for the phenomenology of synesthesia, the theory naturally accommodates phenomenological differences between a range of experiential

  1. Predicting C-H/pi interactions with nonlocal density functional theory.

    PubMed

    Hooper, Joe; Cooper, Valentino R; Thonhauser, Timo; Romero, Nichols A; Zerilli, Frank; Langreth, David C

    2008-04-21

    We examine the performance of a recently developed nonlocal density functional in predicting a model noncovalent interaction, namely the weak bond between an aromatic pi system and an aliphatic C--H group. The new functional is a significant improvement over traditional density functionals, providing results which compare favorably to high-level quantum-chemistry techniques, but at considerably lower computational cost. Interaction energies in several model C--H/pi systems are in good general agreement with coupled-cluster calculations, though equilibrium distances are consistently overpredicted when using the revPBE functional for exchange. The new functional predicts changes in energy upon addition of halogen substituents correctly.

  2. Prediction of heart rate response to conclusion of the spontaneous breathing trial by fluctuation dissipation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Man; Niestemski, Liang Ren; Prevost, Robert; McRae, Michael; Cholleti, Sharath; Najarro, Gabriel; Buchman, Timothy G.; Deem, Michael W.

    2013-02-01

    The non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem is applied to predict how critically ill patients respond to treatment, based upon data currently collected by standard hospital monitoring devices. This framework is demonstrated on a common procedure in critical care: the spontaneous breathing trial. It is shown that the responses of groups of similar patients to the spontaneous breathing trial can be predicted by the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation approach. This mathematical framework, when fully formed and applied to other clinical interventions, may serve as part of the basis for personalized critical care.

  3. Electron-Ion Dynamics with Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory: Towards Predictive Solar Cell Modeling: Final Technical Report

    SciTech Connect

    Maitra, Neepa

    2016-07-14

    This project investigates the accuracy of currently-used functionals in time-dependent density functional theory, which is today routinely used to predict and design materials and computationally model processes in solar energy conversion. The rigorously-based electron-ion dynamics method developed here sheds light on traditional methods and overcomes challenges those methods have. The fundamental research undertaken here is important for building reliable and practical methods for materials discovery. The ultimate goal is to use these tools for the computational design of new materials for solar cell devices of high efficiency.

  4. Departure of some parameter-dependent spectral statistics of irregular quantum graphs from random matrix theory predictions.

    PubMed

    Hul, Oleh; Seba, Petr; Sirko, Leszek

    2009-06-01

    Parameter-dependent statistical properties of spectra of totally connected irregular quantum graphs with Neumann boundary conditions are studied. The autocorrelation functions of level velocities c(x) and c[over ](omega,x) as well as the distributions of level curvatures and avoided crossing gaps are calculated. The numerical results are compared with the predictions of random matrix theory for Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) and for coupled GOE matrices. The application of coupled GOE matrices was justified by studying localization phenomena in graphs' wave functions Psi(x) using the inverse participation ratio and the amplitude distribution P(Psi(x)) .

  5. Existence of a natural instability not predicted by theory and connected to a wall deformation in a laminar boundary layer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gougat, P.; Martin, F.

    1981-01-01

    Natural instability related to negative wall deformation was studied. It was shown that natural instabilities which propagate in a laminar boundary layer of a flat plate are in agreement with stability theory. It is found that if a wall has a deformation, a second frequency does exist, which is not predicted and is twice the first frequency. This second instable frequency only appears if there is a negative velocity gradient. The phenomenon is located very closely to the wall and drops off rapidly when moved away from it.

  6. Lattice instability and martensitic transformation in LaAg predicted from first-principles theory.

    PubMed

    Vaitheeswaran, G; Kanchana, V; Zhang, Xinxin; Ma, Yanming; Svane, A; Kaul, S N

    2012-02-22

    The electronic structure, elastic constants and lattice dynamics of the B(2) type intermetallic compound LaAg are studied by means of density functional theory calculations with the generalized gradient approximation for exchange and correlation. The calculated equilibrium properties and elastic constants agree well with available experimental data. From the ratio between the bulk and shear moduli, LaAg is found to be ductile, which is unusual for B(2) type intermetallics. The computed band structure shows a dominant contribution from La 5d states near the Fermi level. The phonon dispersion relations, calculated using density functional perturbation theory, are in good agreement with available inelastic neutron scattering data. Under pressure, the phonon dispersions develop imaginary frequencies, starting at around 2.3 GPa, in good accordance with the martensitic instability observed above 3.4 GPa. By structural optimization the high pressure phase is identified as orthorhombic B(19).

  7. Application of seismic multi-attribute fusion method based on D-S evidence theory in prediction of CBM-enriched area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Xue-Mei; Zhang, Shao-Cong

    2012-03-01

    D-S evidence theory provides a good approach to fuse uncertain information. In this article, we introduce seismic multi-attribute fusion based on D-S evidence theory to predict the coalbed methane (CBM) concentrated areas. First, we choose seismic attributes that are most sensitive to CBM content changes with the guidance of CBM content measured at well sites. Then the selected seismic attributes are fused using D-S evidence theory and the fusion results are used to predict CBM-enriched area. The application shows that the predicted CBM content and the measured values are basically consistent. The results indicate that using D-S evidence theory in seismic multi-attribute fusion to predict CBM-enriched areas is feasible.

  8. Irving Langmuir Prize Lecture - A predictive theory of transition metal surface catalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norskov, Jens

    2015-03-01

    The lecture will outline a theory of heterogeneous catalysis that allows a detailed understanding of elementary chemical processes at transition metal surfaces and singles out the most important parameters determining catalytic activity and selectivity. It will be shown how scaling relations allow the identification of descriptors of catalytic activity and how they can be used to construct activity and selectivity maps. The maps can be used to define catalyst design rules and examples of their use will be given.

  9. GEMS (Gravity Electro-Magnetism Strong) SU(5) Theory and The Prediction of Exchange Boson Masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandenburg, John

    2012-10-01

    The GEMS SU(5) [1] theory includes short range Nuclear Forces in the GEM unification theory [2], where the importance of the square root of the proton-electron mass ratio: σ = 42.8503 was found. The creation of mass by a Higgs field coupling must, by the Equivalence Principle, be viewed in the context of General Relativity. This is done here using Kaluza-Klein theory in a Feynman-Hawkings path integral formalism. GEM theory, quantum concepts of virtual particles, and ZPF (Zero Point Fluctuation) allow understanding of the Strong Force and Weak forces as the extension of electrodynamics in the quantum limit. The Strong and Weak forces are found to be associated with EM models of the electron and proton as finite sized structures respectively. Higher order Mie resonances off the EM ``mass at a distance'' structures associated with the electron, proton and fifth dimension generate the quanta with masses of the pion mπ = 2 me /α 140.0 MeV and Z boson: mZ = 2σ mp = 80.4 GeV. The ηc meson mη = 2980 GeV is identified with the 5^th dimension compactification force mediated by the Radion field. Another particle associated with this mass inducing field is the ``Radion'' or Higgs scattering quanta off the fifth dimension with a mass σmη 128.6 GeV which is the Higgs Boson. A GEMS SU(5) Georgi-Glashow model, is proposed, where the unification energy is now the Planck energy.[0pt] [1] Brandenburg, J.E. (2012)., STAIF II Conference Albuquerque NM[0pt] [2] Brandenburg, J.E. (2007). IEEE Transactions On Plasma Science, Vol. 35, No. 4., p845.

  10. Further studies using matched filter theory and stochastic simulation for gust loads prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scott, Robert C.; Pototzky, Anthony S.; Perry, Boyd Iii

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes two analysis methods -- one deterministic, the other stochastic -- for computing maximized and time-correlated gust loads for aircraft with nonlinear control systems. The first method is based on matched filter theory; the second is based on stochastic simulation. The paper summarizes the methods, discusses the selection of gust intensity for each method and presents numerical results. A strong similarity between the results from the two methods is seen to exist for both linear and nonlinear configurations.

  11. Prediction of the Impact Sensitivity of Energetic Molecules Using Symmetry Adapted Perturbation Theory

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-05-01

    Bukowski , R.; Szalewicz, K. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2006, 2, 400. 20. Bukowski , R.; Cencek, W.; Jankowski, P.; Jeziorski, B.; Jeziorska, M.; Kucharski, S...udel.edu/~szalewic/SAPT/license.html (accessed 10 January 2009). 21. Podeszwa, R.; Bukowski , R.; Rice, B. M.; Szalewicz, K. Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys...106B GOLDEN CO 80401 7 DIRECTOR US ARMY ARDEC AMSRD AAR AEE W W DAVIS L COSTAS A DAWSON W BUKOWSKI R SURAPANENI R

  12. Brittle Fracture Theory Predicts the Equation of Motion of Frictional Rupture Fronts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svetlizky, Ilya; Kammer, David S.; Bayart, Elsa; Cohen, Gil; Fineberg, Jay

    2017-03-01

    We study rupture fronts propagating along the interface separating two bodies at the onset of frictional motion via high-temporal-resolution measurements of the real contact area and strain fields. The strain measurements provide the energy flux and dissipation at the rupture tips. We show that the classical equation of motion for brittle shear cracks, derived by balancing these quantities, well describes the velocity evolution of frictional ruptures. Our results demonstrate the extensive applicability of the dynamic brittle fracture theory to friction.

  13. How Fuzzy-Trace Theory Predicts True and False Memories for Words, Sentences, and Narratives

    PubMed Central

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Corbin, Jonathan C.; Weldon, Rebecca B.; Brainerd, Charles J.

    2016-01-01

    Fuzzy-trace theory posits independent verbatim and gist memory processes, a distinction that has implications for such applied topics as eyewitness testimony. This distinction between precise, literal verbatim memory and meaning-based, intuitive gist accounts for memory paradoxes including dissociations between true and false memory, false memories outlasting true memories, and developmental increases in false memory. We provide an overview of fuzzy-trace theory, and, using mathematical modeling, also present results demonstrating verbatim and gist memory in true and false recognition of narrative sentences and inferences. Results supported fuzzy-trace theory's dual-process view of memory: verbatim memory was relied on to reject meaning-consistent, but unpresented, sentences (via recollection rejection). However, verbatim memory was often not retrieved, and gist memory supported acceptance of these sentences (via similarity judgment and phantom recollection). Thus, mathematical models of words can be extended to explain memory for complex stimuli, such as narratives, the kind of memory interrogated in law. PMID:27042402

  14. Ligand field density functional theory for the prediction of future domestic lighting.

    PubMed

    Ramanantoanina, Harry; Urland, Werner; García-Fuente, Amador; Cimpoesu, Fanica; Daul, Claude

    2014-07-28

    We deal with the computational determination of the electronic structure and properties of lanthanide ions in complexes and extended structures having open-shell f and d configurations. Particularly, we present conceptual and methodological issues based on Density Functional Theory (DFT) enabling the reliable calculation and description of the f → d transitions in lanthanide doped phosphors. We consider here the optical properties of the Pr(3+) ion embedded into various solid state fluoride host lattices, for the prospection and understanding of the so-called quantum cutting process, being important in the further quest of warm-white light source in light emitting diodes (LED). We use the conceptual formulation of the revisited ligand field (LF) theory, fully compatibilized with the quantum chemistry tools: LFDFT. We present methodological advances for the calculations of the Slater-Condon parameters, the ligand field interaction and the spin-orbit coupling constants, important in the non-empirical parameterization of the effective Hamiltonian adjusted from the ligand field theory. The model shows simple procedure using less sophisticated computational tools, which is intended to contribute to the design of modern phosphors and to help to complement the understanding of the 4f(n) → 4f(n-1)5d(1) transitions in any lanthanide system.

  15. Development of advanced stability theory suction prediction techniques for laminar flow control. [on swept wings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Srokowski, A. J.

    1978-01-01

    The problem of obtaining accurate estimates of suction requirements on swept laminar flow control wings was discussed. A fast accurate computer code developed to predict suction requirements by integrating disturbance amplification rates was described. Assumptions and approximations used in the present computer code are examined in light of flow conditions on the swept wing which may limit their validity.

  16. The Design and Analysis of an Expectancy Theory Model for Predicting Early Retirement.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    and early retirement , and to determine, based upon self-report measures whether objectively identifiable differences exist between subjects who have...modified as suggested by this research holds promise for practical applications involving the prediction of early retirement and other forms of turnover. (Author)

  17. Certainty, Determinism, and Predictability in Theories of Instructional Design: Lessons from Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.; And Others

    1997-01-01

    The strongly positivist beliefs on which traditional conceptions of instructional design (ID) are based derive from Aristotelian logic and oversimplify the world, reducing human learning and performance to a repertoire of manipulable behaviors. Reviews the cases against deterministic predictability and discusses hermeneutic, fuzzy logic, and chaos…

  18. Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Liping; Wang, Li; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian

    2017-01-01

    Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)4 model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends. PMID:28273856

  19. Posterior Predictive Model Checking for Conjunctive Multidimensionality in Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy

    2011-01-01

    If data exhibit multidimensionality, key conditional independence assumptions of unidimensional models do not hold. The current work pursues posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) as a tool for criticizing models due to unaccounted for dimensions in data structures that follow conjunctive multidimensional models. These pursuits are couched in…

  20. Investigating Postgraduate College Admission Interviews: Generalizability Theory Reliability and Incremental Predictive Validity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Castillo, Irene Borges

    2007-01-01

    The use of face-to-face interviews is controversial for college admissions decisions in light of the lack of availability of validity and reliability evidence for most college admission processes. This study investigated reliability and incremental predictive validity of a face-to-face postgraduate college admission interview with a sample of…

  1. Prediction of HR/BP response to the spontaneous breathing trial by fluctuation dissipation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Man

    2014-03-01

    We applied the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem to predict how critically-ill patients respond to treatment, based on both heart rate data and blood pressure data collected by standard hospital monitoring devices. The non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem relates the response of a system to a perturbation to the fluctuations in the stationary state of the system. It is shown that the response of patients to a standard procedure performed on patients, the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT), can be predicted by the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation approach. We classify patients into different groups according to the patients' characteristics. For each patient group, we extend the fluctuation dissipation theorem to predict interactions between blood pressure and beat-to-beat dynamics of heart rate in response to a perturbation (SBT), We also extract the form of the perturbation function directly from the physiological data, which may help to reduce the prediction error. We note this method is not limited to the analysis of the heart rate dynamics, but also can be applied to analyze the response of other physiological signals to other clinical interventions.

  2. Extension of a Theory of Predictive Behavior to Immediate Recall by Preschool Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bogartz, Richard S.

    This paper is concerned with memory functions in sequentially structured behavior. Twenty-five 4- and 5-year-old preschool children participated in a prediction experiment in which a stack of cards (each card alternately having a patch of red or green tape on it) was displayed to the child. The child was presented with a card and asked to predict…

  3. Are the Performance Based Logistics Prophets Using Science or Alchemy to Create Life-Cycle Affordability? Using Theory to Predict the Efficacy of Performance Based Logistics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-10-01

    Based Logistics Prophets Using Science or Alchemy to Create Life-Cycle Affordability? Using Theory to Predict the Efficacy of Performance Based...Using Science or Alchemy to Create Life-Cycle Affordability? Using Theory to Predict the Efficacy of Performance Based Logistics 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b...Are the PBL Prophets Using Science or Alchemy to Create Life Cycle Affordability? 328Defense ARJ, October 2013, Vol. 20 No. 3 : 325–348 Defense

  4. Electronic structure Fermi liquid theory of high Tc superconductors: Comparison of predictions with experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Jaejun; Freeman, A. J.

    1991-01-01

    Predictions of local density functional (LDF) calculations of the electronic structure and transport properties of high T(sub c) superconductors are presented. As evidenced by the excellent agreement with both photoemission and positron annihilation experiments, a Fermi liquid nature of the 'normal' state of the high T(sub c) superconductors become clear for the metallic phase of these oxides. In addition, LDF predictions on the normal state transport properties are qualitatively in agreement with experiments on single crystals. It is emphasized that the signs of the Hall coefficients for the high T(sub c) superconductors are not consistent with the types of dopants (e.g., electron-doped or hole-doped) but are determined by the topology of the Fermi surfaces obtained from the LDF calculations.

  5. Noise and randomlike behavior in perceptrons: theory and application to protein structure prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Compiani, Mario; Fariselli, Piero; Casadio, Rita

    1996-03-01

    In this paper we study the effective behavior of a single-layer perceptron that is forced to learn a noisy mapping (e.g. associations of patterns with classes). The effect of different kinds of noise on the output of the network is discussed as a function of the noise intensity. It is argued that noise induces a random-like component in the overall behavior of the perceptron which we describe in terms of independent biased random flights in the space of the weights. These random processes (one for each class) are ruled by probability distributions specified by the weights themselves. Our model is applied to the real world application of the prediction of protein secondary structures. Several observations made in this task domain are rationalized in terms of the present model that, among others, provides a link between the seeming existence of an upper bound for the prediction efficiency and the amount of noise in the mapping.

  6. A novel prediction method for back pressure based on fuzzy inference theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Guanghua; Zhang, Kunting; Qi, Hongyuan; Nan, Bingshen

    2017-01-01

    In order to solve the problem of back pressure set unreasonable in direct air-cooling unit, a back-pressure-fuzzy-inference machine is established in this paper, of which the environmental temperature and wind speed are the inputs, and the optimal back pressure is the output. The feasibility of the novel method is verified by simulation and experimental results, and the accuracy of back pressure fuzzy prediction can satisfy the operating requirements.

  7. Portfolio theory of optimal isometric force production: Variability predictions and nonequilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frank, T. D.; Patanarapeelert, K.; Beek, P. J.

    2008-05-01

    We derive a fundamental relationship between the mean and the variability of isometric force. The relationship arises from an optimal collection of active motor units such that the force variability assumes a minimum (optimal isometric force). The relationship is shown to be independent of the explicit motor unit properties and of the dynamical features of isometric force production. A constant coefficient of variation in the asymptotic regime and a nonequilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem for optimal isometric force are predicted.

  8. Predicting pediatricians' communication with parents about the human papillomavirus (hpv) vaccine: an application of the theory of reasoned action.

    PubMed

    Roberto, Anthony J; Krieger, Janice L; Katz, Mira L; Goei, Ryan; Jain, Parul

    2011-06-01

    This study examines the ability of the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to predict whether or not pediatricians encourage parents to get their adolescent daughters vaccinated against the human papillomavirus (HPV). Four-hundred and six pediatricians completed a mail survey measuring attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, intentions, and behavior. Results indicate that pediatricians have positive attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control toward encouraging parents to get their daughters vaccinated, that they intend to regularly encourage parents to get their daughters vaccinated against HPV in the next 30 days, and that they had regularly encouraged parents to get their daughters vaccinated against HPV in the past 30 days (behavior). Though the data were consistent with both the TRA and TPB models, results indicate that perceived behavioral control adds only slightly to the overall predictive power of the TRA, suggesting that attitudes and norms may be more important targets for interventions dealing with this topic and audience. No gender differences were observed for any of the individual variables or the overall fit of either model. These findings have important theoretical and practical implications for the development of health communication messages targeting health care providers in general, and for those designed to influence pediatricians' communication with parents regarding the HPV vaccine in particular.

  9. Mechanical disassembly of single virus particles reveals kinetic intermediates predicted by theory.

    PubMed

    Castellanos, Milagros; Pérez, Rebeca; Carrillo, Pablo J P; de Pablo, Pedro J; Mateu, Mauricio G

    2012-06-06

    New experimental approaches are required to detect the elusive transient intermediates predicted by simulations of virus assembly or disassembly. Here, an atomic force microscope (AFM) was used to mechanically induce partial disassembly of single icosahedral T=1 capsids and virions of the minute virus of mice. The kinetic intermediates formed were imaged by AFM. The results revealed that induced disassembly of single minute-virus-of-mice particles is frequently initiated by loss of one of the 20 equivalent capsomers (trimers of capsid protein subunits) leading to a stable, nearly complete particle that does not readily lose further capsomers. With lower frequency, a fairly stable, three-fourths-complete capsid lacking one pentamer of capsomers and a free, stable pentamer were obtained. The intermediates most frequently identified (capsids missing one capsomer, capsids missing one pentamer of capsomers, and free pentamers of capsomers) had been predicted in theoretical studies of reversible capsid assembly based on thermodynamic-kinetic models, molecular dynamics, or oligomerization energies. We conclude that mechanical manipulation and imaging of simple virus particles by AFM can be used to experimentally identify kinetic intermediates predicted by simulations of assembly or disassembly.

  10. Cell Orientation by a Microgrooved Substrate Can Be Predicted by Automatic Control Theory

    PubMed Central

    Kemkemer, Ralf; Jungbauer, Simon; Kaufmann, Dieter; Gruler, Hans

    2006-01-01

    Cells have the ability to measure and respond to extracellular signals like chemical molecules and topographical surface features by changing their orientation. Here, we examined the orientation of cultured human melanocytes exposed to grooved topographies. To predict the cells' orientation response, we describe the cell behavior with an automatic controller model. The predicted dependence of the cell response to height and spatial frequency of the grooves is obtained by considering the symmetry of the system (cell + substrate). One basic result is that the automatic controller responds to the square of the product of groove height and spatial frequency or to the aspect ratio for symmetric grooves. This theoretical prediction was verified by the experiments, in which melanocytes were exposed to microfabricated poly(dimethylsiloxane) substrates having parallel rectangular grooves of heights (h) between 25 and 200 nm and spatial frequencies (L) between 100 and 500 mm−1. In addition, the model of the cellular automatic controller is extended to include the case of different guiding signals acting simultaneously. PMID:16581835

  11. Mechanical Disassembly of Single Virus Particles Reveals Kinetic Intermediates Predicted by Theory

    PubMed Central

    Castellanos, Milagros; Pérez, Rebeca; Carrillo, Pablo J.P.; de Pablo, Pedro J.; Mateu, Mauricio G.

    2012-01-01

    New experimental approaches are required to detect the elusive transient intermediates predicted by simulations of virus assembly or disassembly. Here, an atomic force microscope (AFM) was used to mechanically induce partial disassembly of single icosahedral T = 1 capsids and virions of the minute virus of mice. The kinetic intermediates formed were imaged by AFM. The results revealed that induced disassembly of single minute-virus-of-mice particles is frequently initiated by loss of one of the 20 equivalent capsomers (trimers of capsid protein subunits) leading to a stable, nearly complete particle that does not readily lose further capsomers. With lower frequency, a fairly stable, three-fourths-complete capsid lacking one pentamer of capsomers and a free, stable pentamer were obtained. The intermediates most frequently identified (capsids missing one capsomer, capsids missing one pentamer of capsomers, and free pentamers of capsomers) had been predicted in theoretical studies of reversible capsid assembly based on thermodynamic-kinetic models, molecular dynamics, or oligomerization energies. We conclude that mechanical manipulation and imaging of simple virus particles by AFM can be used to experimentally identify kinetic intermediates predicted by simulations of assembly or disassembly. PMID:22713577

  12. Computational prediction of molecular hydration entropy with hybrid scaled particle theory and free-energy perturbation method.

    PubMed

    Choi, Hwanho; Kang, Hongsuk; Park, Hwangseo

    2015-10-13

    Despite the importance of the knowledge of molecular hydration entropy (ΔShyd) in chemical and biological processes, the exact calculation of ΔShyd is very difficult, because of the complexity in solute-water interactions. Although free-energy perturbation (FEP) methods have been employed quite widely in the literature, the poor convergent behavior of the van der Waals interaction term in the potential function limited the accuracy and robustness. In this study, we propose a new method for estimating ΔShyd by means of combining the FEP approach and the scaled particle theory (or information theory) to separately calculate the electrostatic solute-water interaction term (ΔSelec) and the hydrophobic contribution approximated by the cavity formation entropy (ΔScav), respectively. Decomposition of ΔShyd into ΔScav and ΔSelec terms is found to be very effective with a substantial accuracy enhancement in ΔShyd estimation, when compared to the conventional full FEP calculations. ΔScav appears to dominate over ΔSelec in magnitude, even in the case of polar solutes, implying that the major contribution to the entropic cost for hydration comes from the formation of a solvent-excluded volume. Our hybrid scaled particle theory and FEP method is thus found to enhance the accuracy of ΔShyd prediction by effectively complementing the conventional full FEP method.

  13. An extension of the Theory of Planned Behavior to predict willingness to pay for the conservation of an urban park.

    PubMed

    López-Mosquera, Natalia; García, Teresa; Barrena, Ramo

    2014-03-15

    This paper relates the concept of moral obligation and the components of the Theory of Planned Behavior to determine their influence on the willingness to pay of visitors for park conservation. The sample consists of 190 visitors to an urban Spanish park. The mean willingness to pay estimated was 12.67€ per year. The results also indicated that moral norm was the major factor in predicting behavioral intention, followed by attitudes. The new relations established between the components of the Theory of Planned Behavior show that social norms significantly determine the attitudes, moral norms and perceived behavioral control of individuals. The proportion of explained variance shows that the inclusion of moral norms improves the explanatory power of the original model of the Theory of Planned Behavior (32-40%). Community-based social marketing and local campaigns are the main strategies that should be followed by land managers with the objective of promoting responsible, pro-environmental attitudes as well as a greater willingness to pay for this type of goods.

  14. Coarse-grained theory to predict red blood cell migration in pressure-driven flow at zero Reynolds number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Qin M.; Narsimhan, Vivek; Shaqfeh, Eric S. G.

    2015-11-01

    The pressure-driven flow of blood in a rectangular channel is studied via the development of a modified Boltzmann collision theory. It is well known that the deformability of red blood cells(RBC) creates a hydrodynamic lift away from the channel walls and most importantly, forms a cell-free or `Fahraeus-Lindqvist'' layer at the wall. A theory is presented to predict the uneven concentration distribution of RBCs in the cross-stream direction. We demonstrate that cell migration is mainly due to the balance between the hydrodynamic lift from the wall and cell-cell binary collisions. Each of these components is determined independently via boundary element simulations. The lift velocity shows a scaling with wall displacement law similar to that from previous vesicle experiments. The collisional displacements vary nonlinearly with cross-stream positions -a key input to the theory. Unlike the case of simple shear flow, a nonlocal shear rate correction is necessary to overcome the problem of zero lift and collision at the centerline. Finally a diffusional term is added to account for higher order collisions. The results indicate a decrease in cell-free layer thickness with increasing RBC volume fraction that is in good agreement with simulation of blood in 10-20% range of hematocrit.

  15. Kinetic-theory predictions of clustering instabilities in granular flows: beyond the small-Knudsen-number regime

    SciTech Connect

    Mitrano, Peter P.; Zenk, John R.; Benyahia, Sofiane; Galvin, Janine E.; Dahl, Steven R.; Hrenya, Christine M.

    2013-12-04

    In this work we quantitatively assess, via instabilities, a Navier–Stokes-order (small- Knudsen-number) continuum model based on the kinetic theory analogy and applied to inelastic spheres in a homogeneous cooling system. Dissipative collisions are known to give rise to instabilities, namely velocity vortices and particle clusters, for sufficiently large domains. We compare predictions for the critical length scales required for particle clustering obtained from transient simulations using the continuum model with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The agreement between continuum simulations and MD simulations is excellent, particularly given the presence of well-developed velocity vortices at the onset of clustering. More specifically, spatial mapping of the local velocity-field Knudsen numbers (Knu) at the time of cluster detection reveals Knu » 1 due to the presence of large velocity gradients associated with vortices. Although kinetic-theory-based continuum models are based on a small- Kn (i.e. small-gradient) assumption, our findings suggest that, similar to molecular gases, Navier–Stokes-order (small-Kn) theories are surprisingly accurate outside their expected range of validity.

  16. An Empirical Test of Ecodevelopmental Theory in Predicting HIV Risk Behaviors Among Hispanic Youth

    PubMed Central

    Prado, Guillermo; Huang, Shi; Maldonado-Molina, Mildred; Bandiera, Frank; Schwartz, Seth J.; de la Vega, Pura; Brown, C. Hendricks; Pantin, Hilda

    2013-01-01

    Ecodevelopmental theory is a theoretical framework used to explain the interplay among risk and protective processes associated with HIV risk behaviors among adolescents. Although ecodevelopmentally based interventions have been found to be efficacious in preventing HIV risk behaviors among Hispanic youth, this theory has not yet been directly empirically tested through a basic research study in this population. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to empirically evaluate an ecodevelopmentally based model using structural equation modeling, with substance use and early sex initiation as the two outcomes of the ecodevelopmental chain of relationships. The sample consisted of 586 Hispanic youth (M age = 13.6; SD = 0.75) and their primary caregivers living in Miami, Florida. Adolescent, parent, and teacher reports were used. The results provided strong support for the theoretical model. More specifically, the parent–adolescent acculturation gap is indirectly related both to early sex initiation and to adolescent substance use through family functioning, academic functioning, perceived peer sexual behavior, and perceived peer substance use. Additionally, parent’s U.S. orientation is associated with adolescent substance use and adolescent sex initiation through social support for parents, parental stressors, family functioning, academic functioning, and perceived peer sexual behavior and substance use. These findings suggest that HIV risk behaviors may best be understood as associated with multiple and interrelated ecological determinants. PMID:20130302

  17. Accuracy of density functional theory in the prediction of carbon dioxide adsorbent materials.

    PubMed

    Cazorla, Claudio; Shevlin, Stephen A

    2013-04-07

    Density functional theory (DFT) has become the computational method of choice for modeling and characterization of carbon dioxide adsorbents, a broad family of materials which at present are urgently sought after for environmental applications. The description of polar carbon dioxide (CO(2)) molecules in low-coordinated environments like surfaces and porous materials, however, may be challenging for local and semi-local DFT approximations. Here, we present a thorough computational study in which the accuracy of DFT methods in describing the interactions of CO(2) with model alkali-earth-metal (AEM, Ca and Li) decorated carbon structures, namely anthracene (C(14)H(10)) molecules, is assessed. We find that gas-adsorption energies and equilibrium structures obtained with standard (i.e. LDA and GGA), hybrid (i.e. PBE0 and B3LYP) and van der Waals exchange-correlation functionals of DFT dramatically differ from the results obtained with second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2), an accurate computational quantum chemistry method. The major disagreements found can be mostly rationalized in terms of electron correlation errors that lead to wrong charge-transfer and electrostatic Coulomb interactions between CO(2) and AEM-decorated anthracene molecules. Nevertheless, we show that when the concentration of AEM atoms in anthracene is tuned to resemble as closely as possible the electronic structure of AEM-decorated graphene (i.e. an extended two-dimensional material), hybrid exchange-correlation DFT and MP2 methods quantitatively provide similar results.

  18. Does message framing predict willingness to participate in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial: an application of Prospect Theory.

    PubMed

    Evangeli, Michael; Kafaar, Zuhayr; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie; Bullemor-Day, Philippa

    2013-01-01

    It is vital that enough participants are willing to participate in clinical trials to test HIV vaccines adequately. It is, therefore, necessary to explore what affects peoples' willingness to participate (WTP) in such trials. Studies have only examined individual factors associated with WTP and not the effect of messages about trial participation on potential participants (e.g., whether losses or gains are emphasized, or whether the outcome is certain or uncertain). This study explores whether the effects of message framing on WTP in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial are consistent with Prospect Theory. This theory suggests that people are fundamentally risk averse and that (1) under conditions of low risk and high certainty, gain-framed messages will be influential (2) under conditions of high risk and low certainty, loss-framed messages will be influential. This cross-sectional study recruited 283 HIV-negative students from a South African university who were given a questionnaire that contained matched certain gain-framed, certain loss-framed, uncertain gain-framed, and uncertain loss-framed statements based on common barriers and facilitators of WTP. Participants were asked to rate how likely each statement was to result in their participation in a hypothetical preventative HIV vaccine trial. Consistent with Prospect Theory predictions, for certain outcomes, gain-framed messages were more likely to result in WTP than loss-framed messages. Inconsistent with predictions, loss-framed message were not more likely to be related to WTP for uncertain outcomes than gain-framed messages. Older students were less likely to express their WTP across the different message frames. Recruitment for HIV vaccine trials should pay attention to how messages about the trial are presented to potential participants.

  19. Can policy analysis theories predict and inform policy change? Reflections on the battle for legal abortion in Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Surjadjaja, Claudia; Mayhew, Susannah H

    2011-01-01

    The relevance and importance of research for understanding policy processes and influencing policies has been much debated, but studies on the effectiveness of policy theories for predicting and informing opportunities for policy change (i.e. prospective policy analysis) are rare. The case study presented in this paper is drawn from a policy analysis of a contemporary process of policy debate on legalization of abortion in Indonesia, which was in flux at the time of the research and provided a unique opportunity for prospective analysis. Applying a combination of policy analysis theories, this case study provides an analysis of processes, power and relationships between actors involved in the amendment of the Health Law in Indonesia. It uses a series of practical stakeholder mapping tools to identify power relations between key actors and what strategic approaches should be employed to manage these to enhance the possibility of policy change. The findings show how the moves to legalize abortion have been supported or constrained according to the balance of political and religious powers operating in a macro-political context defined increasingly by a polarized Islamic-authoritarian—Western-liberal agenda. The issue of reproductive health constituted a battlefield where these two ideologies met and the debate on the current health law amendment became a contest, which still continues, for the larger future of Indonesia. The findings confirm the utility of policy analysis theories and stakeholder mapping tools for predicting the likelihood of policy change and informing the strategic approaches for achieving such change. They also highlight opportunities and dilemmas in prospective policy analysis and raise questions about whether research on policy processes and actors can or should be used to inform, or even influence, policies in ‘real-time’. PMID:21183461

  20. Prey risk allocation in a grazing ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Gude, Justin A; Garrott, Robert A; Borkowski, John J; King, Fred

    2006-02-01

    Understanding the behaviorally mediated indirect effects of predators in ecosystems requires knowledge of predator-prey behavioral interactions. In predator-ungulate-plant systems, empirical research quantifying how predators affect ungulate group sizes and distribution, in the context of other influential variables, is particularly needed. The risk allocation hypothesis proposes that prey behavioral responses to predation risk depend on background frequencies of exposure to risk, and it can be used to make predictions about predator-ungulate-plant interactions. We determined non-predation variables that affect elk (Cervus elaphus) group sizes and distribution on a winter range in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) using logistic and log-linear regression on surveys of 513 1-km2 areas conducted over two years. Employing model selection techniques, we evaluated risk allocation and other a priori hypotheses of elk group size and distributional responses to wolf (Canis lupus) predation risk while accounting for influential non-wolf-predation variables. We found little evidence that wolves affect elk group sizes, which were strongly influenced by habitat type and hunting by humans. Following predictions from the risk allocation hypothesis, wolves likely created a more dynamic elk distribution in areas that they frequently hunted, as elk tended to move following wolf encounters in those areas. This response should dilute elk foraging pressure on plant communities in areas where they are frequently hunted by wolves. We predict that this should decrease the spatial heterogeneity of elk impacts on grasslands in areas that wolves frequently hunt. We also predict that this should decrease browsing pressure on heavily browsed woody plant stands in certain areas, which is supported by recent research in the GYE.

  1. Fracture prediction using modified mohr coulomb theory for non-linear strain paths using AA3104-H19

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dick, Robert; Yoon, Jeong Whan

    2016-08-01

    Experiment results from uniaxial tensile tests, bi-axial bulge tests, and disk compression tests for a beverage can AA3104-H19 material are presented. The results from the experimental tests are used to determine material coefficients for both Yld2000 and Yld2004 models. Finite element simulations are developed to study the influence of materials model on the predicted earing profile. It is shown that only the YLD2004 model is capable of accurately predicting the earing profile as the YLD2000 model only predicts 4 ears. Excellent agreement with the experimental data for earing is achieved using the AA3104-H19 material data and the Yld2004 constitutive model. Mechanical tests are also conducted on the AA3104-H19 to generate fracture data under different stress triaxiality conditions. Tensile tests are performed on specimens with a central hole and notched specimens. Torsion of a double bridge specimen is conducted to generate points near pure shear conditions. The Nakajima test is utilized to produce points in bi-axial tension. The data from the experiments is used to develop the fracture locus in the principal strain space. Mapping from principal strain space to stress triaxiality space, principal stress space, and polar effective plastic strain space is accomplished using a generalized mapping technique. Finite element modeling is used to validate the Modified Mohr-Coulomb (MMC) fracture model in the polar space. Models of a hole expansion during cup drawing and a cup draw/reverse redraw/expand forming sequence demonstrate the robustness of the modified PEPS fracture theory for the condition with nonlinear forming paths and accurately predicts the onset of failure. The proposed methods can be widely used for predicting failure for the examples which undergo nonlinear strain path including rigid-packaging and automotive forming.

  2. Resource Balancing Control Allocation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frost, Susan A.; Bodson, Marc

    2010-01-01

    Next generation aircraft with a large number of actuators will require advanced control allocation methods to compute the actuator commands needed to follow desired trajectories while respecting system constraints. Previously, algorithms were proposed to minimize the l1 or l2 norms of the tracking error and of the control effort. The paper discusses the alternative choice of using the l1 norm for minimization of the tracking error and a normalized l(infinity) norm, or sup norm, for minimization of the control effort. The algorithm computes the norm of the actuator deflections scaled by the actuator limits. Minimization of the control effort then translates into the minimization of the maximum actuator deflection as a percentage of its range of motion. The paper shows how the problem can be solved effectively by converting it into a linear program and solving it using a simplex algorithm. Properties of the algorithm are investigated through examples. In particular, the min-max criterion results in a type of resource balancing, where the resources are the control surfaces and the algorithm balances these resources to achieve the desired command. A study of the sensitivity of the algorithms to the data is presented, which shows that the normalized l(infinity) algorithm has the lowest sensitivity, although high sensitivities are observed whenever the limits of performance are reached.

  3. "Non-equilibrium" block copolymer micelles with glassy cores: a predictive approach based on theory of equilibrium micelles.

    PubMed

    Nagarajan, Ramanathan

    2015-07-01

    Micelles generated in water from most amphiphilic block copolymers are widely recognized to be non-equilibrium structures. Typically, the micelles are prepared by a kinetic process, first allowing molecular scale dissolution of the block copolymer in a common solvent that likes both the blocks and then gradually replacing the common solvent by water to promote the hydrophobic blocks to aggregate and create the micelles. The non-equilibrium nature of the micelle originates from the fact that dynamic exchange between the block copolymer molecules in the micelle and the singly dispersed block copolymer molecules in water is suppressed, because of the glassy nature of the core forming polymer block and/or its very large hydrophobicity. Although most amphiphilic block copolymers generate such non-equilibrium micelles, no theoretical approach to a priori predict the micelle characteristics currently exists. In this work, we propose a predictive approach for non-equilibrium micelles with glassy cores by applying the equilibrium theory of micelles in two steps. In the first, we calculate the properties of micelles formed in the mixed solvent while true equilibrium prevails, until the micelle core becomes glassy. In the second step, we freeze the micelle aggregation number at this glassy state and calculate the corona dimension from the equilibrium theory of micelles. The condition when the micelle core becomes glassy is independently determined from a statistical thermodynamic treatment of diluent effect on polymer glass transition temperature. The predictions based on this "non-equilibrium" model compare reasonably well with experimental data for polystyrene-polyethylene oxide diblock copolymer, which is the most extensively studied system in the literature. In contrast, the application of the equilibrium model to describe such a system significantly overpredicts the micelle core and corona dimensions and the aggregation number. The non-equilibrium model suggests ways to

  4. Beyond the effective mass approximation: A predictive theory of the nonlinear optical response of conduction electrons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Shukai; Heffernan, Kate H.; Talbayev, Diyar

    2017-03-01

    We present an experimental and computational study of the nonlinear optical response of conduction electrons to intense terahertz (THz) electric field. Our observations (saturable absorption and an amplitude-dependent group refractive index) can be understood on the qualitative level as the breakdown of the effective mass approximation. However, a predictive theoretical description of the nonlinear THz propagation has been missing. We propose a model based on the semiclassical electron dynamics, a realistic band structure, and the free electron Drude parameters to accurately calculate the experimental observables in InSb. Our results open a path to modeling of the conduction-electron optical nonlinearity that governs the THz propagation in semiconductors.

  5. Predicting intentions to adopt safe home food handling practices. Applying the theory of planned behavior.

    PubMed

    Shapiro, Michael A; Porticella, Norman; Jiang, L Crystal; Gravani, Robert B

    2011-02-01

    While most home cooks know about safe home food handling procedures, compliance is generally low and has not been much improved by campaigns. Foodborne disease is a common cause of illness, hospitalization and even death, and many of these illnesses are caused by unsafe home food practices. Using the theory of planned behavior as a model, survey data were analyzed. Perceived behavioral control was the strongest predictor of behavioral intentions for both hand washing and food thermometer use. Subjective norm was the next strongest predictor for thermometer use, while attitude towards the behavior was the next strongest predictor for hand washing. This is consistent with earlier focus group results for thermometer use and suggests some possible strategies for designing future home food safety messages.

  6. Does the Theory of Planned Behavior Predict Dietary Sodium Intake in Patients With Heart Failure?

    PubMed

    Wu, Jia-Rong; Lennie, Terry A; Dunbar, Sandra B; Pressler, Susan J; Moser, Debra K

    2016-10-18

    Sodium intake in heart failure (HF) is a crucial but poorly understood phenomenon. Theoretical models promote understanding and provide a context for rational appraisal of complex situations. The purpose of this study was to determine which factors were associated with sodium intake in HF patients using theory of planned behavior (TPB). In this study, patients' (N = 244) attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control (tenets of the TPB) were assessed using the Dietary Sodium Restriction Questionnaire. Sodium intake was estimated objectively by 24-hr urinary sodium excretion (UNa). The average UNa was 3,811 mg. Subjective norms, gender, and New York Heart Association functional class were associated with sodium intake (p < .001). Thus, it is important for health care providers to clearly express their approval of following low-sodium diet to their HF patients, and include significant others in interventions to help patients develop/maintain a positive subjective norm to decrease sodium intake and reduce HF exacerbations.

  7. An analysis for high speed propeller-nacelle aerodynamic performance prediction. Volume 1: Theory and application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Egolf, T. Alan; Anderson, Olof L.; Edwards, David E.; Landgrebe, Anton J.

    1988-01-01

    A computer program, the Propeller Nacelle Aerodynamic Performance Prediction Analysis (PANPER), was developed for the prediction and analysis of the performance and airflow of propeller-nacelle configurations operating over a forward speed range inclusive of high speed flight typical of recent propfan designs. A propeller lifting line, wake program was combined with a compressible, viscous center body interaction program, originally developed for diffusers, to compute the propeller-nacelle flow field, blade loading distribution, propeller performance, and the nacelle forebody pressure and viscous drag distributions. The computer analysis is applicable to single and coaxial counterrotating propellers. The blade geometries can include spanwise variations in sweep, droop, taper, thickness, and airfoil section type. In the coaxial mode of operation the analysis can treat both equal and unequal blade number and rotational speeds on the propeller disks. The nacelle portion of the analysis can treat both free air and tunnel wall configurations including wall bleed. The analysis was applied to many different sets of flight conditions using selected aerodynamic modeling options. The influence of different propeller nacelle-tunnel wall configurations was studied. Comparisons with available test data for both single and coaxial propeller configurations are presented along with a discussion of the results.

  8. Two-Phase Thermal Transport in Microgap Channels—Theory, Experimental Results, and Predictive Relations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bar-Cohen, Avram; Sheehan, Jessica R.; Rahim, Emil

    2012-01-01

    A comprehensive literature review and analysis of recent microchannel/microgap heat transfer data for two-phase flow of refrigerants and dielectric liquids is presented. The flow regime progression in such a microgap channel is shown to be predicted by the traditional flow regime maps. Moreover, Annular flow is shown to be the dominant regime for this thermal transport configuration and to grow in importance as the channel diameter decreases. The results of heat transfer studies of single miniature channels, as well as the analysis and inverse calculation of IR images of a heated microgap channel wall, are used to identify the existence of a characteristic M-shaped heat transfer coefficient variation with quality (or superficial velocity), with inflection points corresponding to transitions in the two-phase cooling modalities. For the high-quality, Annular flow conditions, the venerable Chen correlation is shown to yield predictive agreement for microgap channels that is comparable to that attained for macrochannels and to provide a mechanistic context for the thermal transport rates attained in microgap channels. Results obtained from infrared imaging, revealing previously undetected, large surface temperature variations in Annular flow, are also reviewed and related to the termination of the favorable thin-film evaporation mode in such channels.

  9. Position-specific prediction of methylation sites from sequence conservation based on information theory.

    PubMed

    Shi, Yinan; Guo, Yanzhi; Hu, Yayun; Li, Menglong

    2015-07-23

    Protein methylation plays vital roles in many biological processes and has been implicated in various human diseases. To fully understand the mechanisms underlying methylation for use in drug design and work in methylation-related diseases, an initial but crucial step is to identify methylation sites. The use of high-throughput bioinformatics methods has become imperative to predict methylation sites. In this study, we developed a novel method that is based only on sequence conservation to predict protein methylation sites. Conservation difference profiles between methylated and non-methylated peptides were constructed by the information entropy (IE) in a wider neighbor interval around the methylation sites that fully incorporated all of the environmental information. Then, the distinctive neighbor residues were identified by the importance scores of information gain (IG). The most representative model was constructed by support vector machine (SVM) for Arginine and Lysine methylation, respectively. This model yielded a promising result on both the benchmark dataset and independent test set. The model was used to screen the entire human proteome, and many unknown substrates were identified. These results indicate that our method can serve as a useful supplement to elucidate the mechanism of protein methylation and facilitate hypothesis-driven experimental design and validation.

  10. Applying probability theory for the quality assessment of a wildfire spread prediction framework based on genetic algorithms.

    PubMed

    Cencerrado, Andrés; Cortés, Ana; Margalef, Tomàs

    2013-01-01

    This work presents a framework for assessing how the existing constraints at the time of attending an ongoing forest fire affect simulation results, both in terms of quality (accuracy) obtained and the time needed to make a decision. In the wildfire spread simulation and prediction area, it is essential to properly exploit the computational power offered by new computing advances. For this purpose, we rely on a two-stage prediction process to enhance the quality of traditional predictions, taking advantage of parallel computing. This strategy is based on an adjustment stage which is carried out by a well-known evolutionary technique: Genetic Algorithms. The core of this framework is evaluated according to the probability theory principles. Thus, a strong statistical study is presented and oriented towards the characterization of such an adjustment technique in order to help the operation managers deal with the two aspects previously mentioned: time and quality. The experimental work in this paper is based on a region in Spain which is one of the most prone to forest fires: El Cap de Creus.

  11. Assessment of Density Functional Theory in Predicting Structures and Free Energies of Reaction of Atmospheric Prenucleation Clusters.

    PubMed

    Elm, Jonas; Bilde, Merete; Mikkelsen, Kurt V

    2012-06-12

    This work assesses different computational strategies for predicting structures and Gibb's free energies of reaction of atmospheric prenucleation clusters. The performance of 22 Density Functional Theory functionals in predicting equilibrium structures of molecules and water prenucleation clusters of atmospheric relevance is evaluated against experimental data using a test set of eight molecules and prenucleation clusters: SO2, H2SO4, CO2·H2O, CS2·H2O, OCS·H2O, SO2·H2O, SO3·H2O, and H2SO4·H2O. Furthermore, the functionals are tested and compared for their ability to predict the free energy of reaction for the formation of five benchmark atmospheric prenucleation clusters: H2SO4·H2O, H2SO4·(H2O)2, H2SO4·NH3, HSO4(-)·H2O, and HSO4(-)·(H2O)2. The performance is evaluated against experimental data, coupled cluster, and complete basis set extrapolation procedure methods. Our investigation shows that the utilization of the M06-2X functional with the 6-311++G(3df,3pd) basis set represents an improved approach compared to the conventionally used PW91 functional, yielding mean absolute errors of 0.48 kcal/mol and maximum errors of 0.67 kcal/mol compared to experimental results.

  12. A Theory of Planned Behavior research model for predicting the sleep intentions and behaviors of undergraduate college students.

    PubMed

    Knowlden, Adam P; Sharma, Manoj; Bernard, Amy L

    2012-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to operationalize the constructs of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to predict the sleep intentions and behaviors of undergraduate college students attending a Midwestern University. Data collection spanned three phases. The first phase included a semi-structured qualitative interview (n = 11), readability by Flesch-Kincaid, face and content validity by a panel of six experts. The second phase included stability reliability by test–retest (n = 37). The final phase included construct validation applying confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency by Cronbach’s alpha, and predictive validity (n = 197) employing multiple regression analysis. The majority of the participants reported receiving insufficient sleep (M = 407.3 min, SD = 100.75). Multiple regression modeled perceived behavioral control, subjective norm, and attitude toward adequate sleep behavior on behavioral intention. Collectively, the significant predictors produced an R(2)(adjusted) value of .362. Further specification of the model identified behavioral intention as a significant predictor of sleep behavior (R(2)(adjusted) = .185). As a population, undergraduate college students are not achieving adequate sleep. The TPB was found to be a useful framework for predicting the sleep intentions and behaviors of undergraduate students. Practical implications and recommendations for future research are discussed.

  13. Applying Probability Theory for the Quality Assessment of a Wildfire Spread Prediction Framework Based on Genetic Algorithms

    PubMed Central

    Cencerrado, Andrés; Cortés, Ana; Margalef, Tomàs

    2013-01-01

    This work presents a framework for assessing how the existing constraints at the time of attending an ongoing forest fire affect simulation results, both in terms of quality (accuracy) obtained and the time needed to make a decision. In the wildfire spread simulation and prediction area, it is essential to properly exploit the computational power offered by new computing advances. For this purpose, we rely on a two-stage prediction process to enhance the quality of traditional predictions, taking advantage of parallel computing. This strategy is based on an adjustment stage which is carried out by a well-known evolutionary technique: Genetic Algorithms. The core of this framework is evaluated according to the probability theory principles. Thus, a strong statistical study is presented and oriented towards the characterization of such an adjustment technique in order to help the operation managers deal with the two aspects previously mentioned: time and quality. The experimental work in this paper is based on a region in Spain which is one of the most prone to forest fires: El Cap de Creus. PMID:24453898

  14. Fast and General Method To Predict the Physicochemical Properties of Druglike Molecules Using the Integral Equation Theory of Molecular Liquids.

    PubMed

    Palmer, David S; Mišin, Maksim; Fedorov, Maxim V; Llinas, Antonio

    2015-09-08

    We report a method to predict physicochemical properties of druglike molecules using a classical statistical mechanics based solvent model combined with machine learning. The RISM-MOL-INF method introduced here provides an accurate technique to characterize solvation and desolvation processes based on solute-solvent correlation functions computed by the 1D reference interaction site model of the integral equation theory of molecular liquids. These functions can be obtained in a matter of minutes for most small organic and druglike molecules using existing software (RISM-MOL) (Sergiievskyi, V. P.; Hackbusch, W.; Fedorov, M. V. J. Comput. Chem. 2011, 32, 1982-1992). Predictions of caco-2 cell permeability and hydration free energy obtained using the RISM-MOL-INF method are shown to be more accurate than the state-of-the-art tools for benchmark data sets. Due to the importance of solvation and desolvation effects in biological systems, it is anticipated that the RISM-MOL-INF approach will find many applications in biophysical and biomedical property prediction.

  15. Unifying ecological stoichiometry and metabolic theory to predict production and trophic transfer in a marine planktonic food web.

    PubMed

    Moorthi, Stefanie D; Schmitt, Jennifer A; Ryabov, Alexey; Tsakalakis, Ioannis; Blasius, Bernd; Prelle, Lara; Tiedemann, Marc; Hodapp, Dorothee

    2016-05-19

    Two ecological frameworks have been used to explain multitrophic interactions, but rarely in combination: (i) ecological stoichiometry (ES), explaining consumption rates in response to consumers' demand and prey's nutrient content; and (ii) metabolic theory of ecology (MTE), proposing that temperature and body mass affect metabolic rates, growth and consumption rates. Here we combined both, ES and MTE to investigate interactive effects of phytoplankton prey stoichiometry, temperature and zooplankton consumer body mass on consumer grazing rates and production in a microcosm experiment. A simple model integrating parameters from both frameworks was used to predict interactive effects of temperature and nutrient conditions on consumer performance. Overall, model predictions reflected experimental patterns well: consumer grazing rates and production increased with temperature, as could be expected based on MTE. With decreasing algal food quality, grazing rates increased due to compensatory feeding, while consumer growth rates and final biovolume decreased. Nutrient effects on consumer biovolume increased with increasing temperature, while nutrient effects on grazing rates decreased. Highly interactive effects of temperature and nutrient supply indicate that combining the frameworks of ES and MTE is highly important to enhance our ability to predict ecosystem functioning in the context of global change.

  16. Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A; Xu, Jing

    2015-01-01

    National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

  17. Random allocation of pies promotes the evolution of fairness in the Ultimatum Game

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiaofeng; Chen, Xiaojie; Wang, Long

    2014-01-01

    In the Ultimatum Game, two players are offered a chance to win a pie. The proposer suggests how to split the pie. The responder can either accept or reject the deal. If an agreement is not reached, neither player gets anything. Both game theory and evolutionary game theory predict the rational solution that the proposer offers the smallest possible share and the responder accepts it. Fairness thus requires additional mechanisms for natural selection to favor it. Studies to date assumed that individuals have competed for the fixed size of pies, in sharp contrast with real situations, where randomness is ubiquitous. Here we study the impact of random allocation of pies on the evolution of fairness in the Ultimatum Game. Interestingly, we find that the evolution of fairness can be promoted by the randomness associated with the size of pies, without the support of any additional evolutionary mechanisms. PMID:24686840

  18. A Distributed Cooperative Power Allocation Method for Campus Buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Hao, He; Sun, Yannan; Carroll, Thomas E.; Somani, Abhishek

    2015-09-01

    We propose a coordination algorithm for cooperative power allocation among a collection of commercial buildings within a campus. We introduced thermal and power models of a typical commercial building Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, and utilize model predictive control to characterize their power flexibility. The power allocation problem is formulated as a cooperative game using the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) concept, in which buildings collectively maximize the product of their utilities subject to their local flexibility constraints and a total power limit set by the campus coordinator. To solve the optimal allocation problem, a distributed protocol is designed using dual decomposition of the Nash bargaining problem. Numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed allocation method

  19. Resource allocation using risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T. F.; Eisenhawer, S. W.

    2003-01-01

    Allocating limited resources among competing priorities is an important problem in management. In this paper we describe an approach to resource allocation using risk as a metric. We call this approach the Logic-Evolved Decision (LED) approach because we use logic-models to generate an exhaustive set of competing options and to describe the often highly complex model used for evaluating the risk reduction achieved by different resource allocations among these options. The risk evaluation then proceeds using probabilistic or linguistic input data.

  20. Zinc allocation and re-allocation in rice

    PubMed Central

    Stomph, Tjeerd Jan; Jiang, Wen; Van Der Putten, Peter E. L.; Struik, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    Aims: Agronomy and breeding actively search for options to enhance cereal grain Zn density. Quantifying internal (re-)allocation of Zn as affected by soil and crop management or genotype is crucial. We present experiments supporting the development of a conceptual model of whole plant Zn allocation and re-allocation in rice. Methods: Two solution culture experiments using 70Zn applications at different times during crop development and an experiment on within-grain distribution of Zn are reported. In addition, results from two earlier published experiments are re-analyzed and re-interpreted. Results: A budget analysis showed that plant zinc accumulation during grain filling was larger than zinc allocation to the grains. Isotope data showed that zinc taken up during grain filling was only partly transported directly to the grains and partly allocated to the leaves. Zinc taken up during grain filling and allocated to the leaves replaced zinc re-allocated from leaves to grains. Within the grains, no major transport barrier was observed between vascular tissue and endosperm. At low tissue Zn concentrations, rice plants maintained concentrations of about 20 mg Zn kg−1 dry matter in leaf blades and reproductive tissues, but let Zn concentrations in stems, sheath, and roots drop below this level. When plant zinc concentrations increased, Zn levels in leaf blades and reproductive tissues only showed a moderate increase while Zn levels in stems, roots, and sheaths increased much more and in that order. Conclusions: In rice, the major barrier to enhanced zinc allocation towards grains is between stem and reproductive tissues. Enhancing root to shoot transfer will not contribute proportionally to grain zinc enhancement. PMID:24478788

  1. W4 theory for computational thermochemistry : in pursuit of confident sub-kJ/mol predictions.

    SciTech Connect

    Karton, A.; Rabinovich, E.; Martin, J. M. L.; Ruscic, B.; Chemistry; Weizmann Institute of Science

    2006-01-01

    In an attempt to improve on our earlier W3 theory [A. D. Boese et al., J. Chem. Phys. 120, 4129 (2004)] we consider such refinements as more accurate estimates for the contribution of connected quadruple excitations ({cflx T}{sub 4}), inclusion of connected quintuple excitations ({cflx T}{sub 5}), diagonal Born-Oppenheimer corrections (DBOC), and improved basis set extrapolation procedures. Revised experimental data for validation purposes were obtained from the latest version of the Active Thermochemical Tables thermochemical network. The recent CCSDT(Q) method offers a cost-effective way of estimating {cflx T}{sub 4} but is insufficient by itself if the molecule exhibits some nondynamical correlation. The latter considerably slows down basis set convergence for {cflx T}{sub 4}, and anomalous basis set convergence in highly polar systems makes two-point extrapolation procedures unusable. However, we found that the CCSDTQ-CCSDT(Q) difference converges quite rapidly with the basis set, and that the formula 1.10[CCSDT(Q)/cc-pVTZ+CCSDTQ/cc-pVDZ-CCSDT(Q)/cc-pVDZ] offers a very reliable as well as fairly cost-effective estimate of the basis set limit {cflx T}{sub 4} contribution. The {cflx T}{sub 5} contribution converges very rapidly with the basis set, and even a simple double-zeta basis set appears to be adequate. The largest {cflx T}{sub 5} contribution found in the present work is on the order of 0.5 kcal/mol (for ozone). DBOCs are significant at the 0.1 kcal/mol level in hydride systems. Post-CCSD(T) contributions to the core-valence correlation energy are only significant at that level in systems with severe nondynamical correlation effects. Based on the accumulated experience, a new computational thermochemistry protocol for first- and second-row main-group systems, to be known as W4 theory, is proposed. Its computational cost is not insurmountably higher than that of the earlier W3 theory, while performance is markedly superior. Our W4 atomization energies for

  2. Predicting the aeroelastic behavior of a wind-tunnel model using transonic small disturbance theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Silva, Walter A.; Bennett, Robert M.

    1990-01-01

    The CAP-TSD (Computational Aeroelasticity Program - Transonic Small Disturbance) code, developed at the NASA-Langley Research Center, is applied to the Active Flexible Wing (AFW) wind-tunnel model for prediction of the model's transonic aeroelastic behavior. Static aeroelastic solutions using CAP-TSD are computed. Dynamic (flutter) analyses are then performed as perturbations about the static aeroelastic deformations of the AFW. The accuracy of the static aeroelastic procedure is investigated by comparing analytical results to those from AFW wind-tunnel experiments. Dynamic results are presented in the form of root loci at different Mach numbers for a heavy gas and for air test mediums. The resultant flutter boundaries for both gases, and the effects of viscous damping and angle of attack on the flutter boundary in air, are also presented.

  3. Predictive Poincaré control: A control theory for chaotic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schweizer, Jörg; Kennedy, Michael Peter

    1995-11-01

    One of the most interesting features of chaotic systems is the large number of unstable orbits embedded in a chaotic attractor. In this work, we propose a global chaos-control technique called predictive Poincaré control (PPC) that permits stabilization of a predefined solution, using only small control pulses. We prove this result for a large class of n-dimensional chaotic systems. The predefined solution can be a periodic or nonperiodic oscillation, expressed by a periodic or nonperiodic symbolic sequence [S. Hayes, C. Grebogi, and E. Ott, Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 3031 (1993)]. We apply the general PPC scheme to the well known Lorenz model and study its robustness with respect to parasitic effects.

  4. Dopamine prediction errors in reward learning and addiction: from theory to neural circuitry

    PubMed Central

    Keiflin, Ronald; Janak, Patricia H.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Midbrain dopamine (DA) neurons are proposed to signal reward prediction error (RPE), a fundamental parameter in associative learning models. This RPE hypothesis provides a compelling theoretical framework for understanding DA function in reward learning and addiction. New studies support a causal role for DA-mediated RPE activity in promoting learning about natural reward; however, this question has not been explicitly tested in the context of drug addiction. In this review, we integrate theoretical models with experimental findings on the activity of DA systems, and on the causal role of specific neuronal projections and cell types, to provide a circuit-based framework for probing DA-RPE function in addiction. By examining error-encoding DA neurons in the neural network in which they are embedded, hypotheses regarding circuit-level adaptations that possibly contribute to pathological error-signaling and addiction can be formulated and tested. PMID:26494275

  5. Noise and randomlike behavior of perceptrons: Theory and applicationto protein structure prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Compiani, M.; Fariselli, P.; Casadio, R.

    1997-06-01

    In the first part of this paper we study the performance of a single-layer perceptron that is expected to classify patterns into classes in the case where the mapping to be learned is corrupted by noise. Extending previous results concerning the statistical behavior of perceptrons, we distinguish two mutually exclusive kinds of noise (I noise and R noise) and study their effect on the statistical information that can be drawn from the output. In the presence of I noise, the learning stage results in the convergence of the output to the probabilities that the input occurs in each class. R noise, on the contrary, perturbs the learning of probabilities to the extent that the performance of the perceptron deteriorates and the network becomes equivalent to a random predictor. We derive an analytical expression for the efficiency of classification of inputs affected by strong R noise. We argue that, from the standpoint of the efficiency score, the network is equivalent to a device performing biased random flights in the space of the weights, which are ruled by the statistical information stored by the network during the learning stage. The second part of the paper is devoted to the application of our model to the prediction of protein secondary structures where one has to deal with the effects of R noise. Our results are shown to be consistent with data drawn from experiments and simulations of the folding process. In particular, the existence of coding and noncoding traits of the protein is properly rationalized in terms of R-noise intensity. In addition, our model provides a justification of the seeming existence of a relationship between the prediction efficiency and the amount of R noise in the sequence-to-structure mapping. Finally, we define an entropylike parameter that is useful as a measure of R noise.

  6. Predicting Pilot Behavior in Medium Scale Scenarios Using Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yildiz, Yildiray; Agogino, Adrian; Brat, Guillaume

    2013-01-01

    Effective automation is critical in achieving the capacity and safety goals of the Next Generation Air Traffic System. Unfortunately creating integration and validation tools for such automation is difficult as the interactions between automation and their human counterparts is complex and unpredictable. This validation becomes even more difficult as we integrate wide-reaching technologies that affect the behavior of different decision makers in the system such as pilots, controllers and airlines. While overt short-term behavior changes can be explicitly modeled with traditional agent modeling systems, subtle behavior changes caused by the integration of new technologies may snowball into larger problems and be very hard to detect. To overcome these obstacles, we show how integration of new technologies can be validated by learning behavior models based on goals. In this framework, human participants are not modeled explicitly. Instead, their goals are modeled and through reinforcement learning their actions are predicted. The main advantage to this approach is that modeling is done within the context of the entire system allowing for accurate modeling of all participants as they interact as a whole. In addition such an approach allows for efficient trade studies and feasibility testing on a wide range of automation scenarios. The goal of this paper is to test that such an approach is feasible. To do this we implement this approach using a simple discrete-state learning system on a scenario where 50 aircraft need to self-navigate using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information. In this scenario, we show how the approach can be used to predict the ability of pilots to adequately balance aircraft separation and fly efficient paths. We present results with several levels of complexity and airspace congestion.

  7. Collaborative Resource Allocation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Yeou-Fang; Wax, Allan; Lam, Raymond; Baldwin, John; Borden, Chester

    2007-01-01

    Collaborative Resource Allocation Networking Environment (CRANE) Version 0.5 is a prototype created to prove the newest concept of using a distributed environment to schedule Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna times in a collaborative fashion. This program is for all space-flight and terrestrial science project users and DSN schedulers to perform scheduling activities and conflict resolution, both synchronously and asynchronously. Project schedulers can, for the first time, participate directly in scheduling their tracking times into the official DSN schedule, and negotiate directly with other projects in an integrated scheduling system. A master schedule covers long-range, mid-range, near-real-time, and real-time scheduling time frames all in one, rather than the current method of separate functions that are supported by different processes and tools. CRANE also provides private workspaces (both dynamic and static), data sharing, scenario management, user control, rapid messaging (based on Java Message Service), data/time synchronization, workflow management, notification (including emails), conflict checking, and a linkage to a schedule generation engine. The data structure with corresponding database design combines object trees with multiple associated mortal instances and relational database to provide unprecedented traceability and simplify the existing DSN XML schedule representation. These technologies are used to provide traceability, schedule negotiation, conflict resolution, and load forecasting from real-time operations to long-range loading analysis up to 20 years in the future. CRANE includes a database, a stored procedure layer, an agent-based middle tier, a Web service wrapper, a Windows Integrated Analysis Environment (IAE), a Java application, and a Web page interface.

  8. Using Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict the Physical Activity of Children: Probing Gender Differences

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Lijuan; Wang, Lin

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. The primary objective of this study was to use the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to examine the association between TPB variables and the moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) of children in Shanghai, China. Gender differences were also explored. Methods. The participants were 353 children (180 boys and 173 girls) aged 9 to 13 years from three primary schools in Shanghai. Accelerometers were used to measure the MVPA duration of the children. Questionnaires that focused on attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control (PBC) related to MVPA engagement were completed by the participants. Results. Regression analyses revealed that intention, and not PBC, accounted for 9% of the variance in MVPA. Meanwhile, attitude and PBC explained 33% of the variance in intentions to engage in MVPA. In terms of gender differences, TPB performed better in the physical activity (PA) domain for boys than for girls. Furthermore, attitude and PBC were significantly associated with intention among boys, whereas only PBC was significantly related to intention among girls. Conclusion. Practitioners should consider tailoring intervention to address gender differences to increase leisure-time PA participation of children. PMID:26649307

  9. Prediction of physical properties of XO (X = Am, Cd, Mg, Zr) compounds using density functional theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masoud Mirhosseini, Mohammad; Khordad, Reza

    2016-07-01

    The electronic, mechanical and thermodynamic properties of XO ( X= Am , Cd, Mg, and Zr) compounds are studied by performing density functional theory (DFT) calculations. We have calculated the elastic constant, various moduli, phonon dispersion relation, and density of phonon state, heat capacity, density of state, electronic band structure, Debye temperature, free energy and enthalpy of the compounds. For this goal, we have performed our calculations within local density approximation (LDA) functional with ultra-soft pseudopotentials (USP) and generalized gradient approximation (GGA). According to the obtained results, it is found that i) CdO and ZrO compounds are ductile and MgO is a brittle material; ii) ZrO is less stable against shear forces than MgO and CdO; iii) at high temperatures, the heat capacity and Debye temperature approach a constant value for all compounds; iv) at temperatures higher than 60K, the averaged sound velocity in CdO is higher than MgO and ZrO; v) the ZrO and CdO are treated properly using GGA.

  10. Interlayer vacancy defects in AA-stacked bilayer graphene: Density functional theory predictions.

    PubMed

    Vuong, Amanda; Trevethan, Tom; Latham, Christopher; Ewels, Chris; Erbahar, Doğan; Briddon, Patrick; Rayson, Mark; Heggie, Malcolm

    2017-02-09

    AA-stacked graphite and closely related structures, where carbon atoms are located in registry in adjacent graphene layers, are a feature of graphitic systems including twisted and folded bilayer graphene, and turbostratic graphite. We present the results of ab initio density functional theory calculations performed to investigate the complexes that are formed from the binding of vacancy defects across neighbouring layers in AA-stacked bilayers. As with AB stacking, the carbon atoms surrounding lattice vacancies can form interlayer structures with sp2 bonding that are lower in energy than in-plane reconstructions. The sp2 interlayer bonding of adjacent multivacancy defects in registry creates a type of stable sp2 bonded 'wormhole' or tunnel defect between the layers. We also identify a new class of 'mezzanine' structure characterised by sp3 interlayer bonding, resembling a prismatic vacancy loop. The V6 hexavacancy variant, where six sp3 carbon atoms sit midway between two carbon layers and bond to both, is substantially more stable than any other vacancy aggregate in AA-stacked layers. Our focus is on vacancy generation and aggregation in the absence of extreme temperatures or intense beams.

  11. Air speeds of migrating birds observed by ornithodolite and compared with predictions from flight theory

    PubMed Central

    Pennycuick, C. J.; Åkesson, Susanne; Hedenström, Anders

    2013-01-01

    We measured the air speeds of 31 bird species, for which we had body mass and wing measurements, migrating along the east coast of Sweden in autumn, using a Vectronix Vector 21 ornithodolite and a Gill WindSonic anemometer. We expected each species’ average air speed to exceed its calculated minimum-power speed (Vmp), and to fall below its maximum-range speed (Vmr), but found some exceptions to both limits. To resolve these discrepancies, we first reduced the assumed induced power factor for all species from 1.2 to 0.9, attributing this to splayed and up-turned primary feathers, and then assigned body drag coefficients for different species down to 0.060 for small waders, and up to 0.12 for the mute swan, in the Reynolds number range 25 000–250 000. These results will be used to amend the default values in existing software that estimates fuel consumption in migration, energy heights on arrival and other aspects of flight performance, using classical aeronautical theory. The body drag coefficients are central to range calculations. Although they cannot be measured on dead bird bodies, they could be checked against wind tunnel measurements on living birds, using existing methods. PMID:23804440

  12. Air speeds of migrating birds observed by ornithodolite and compared with predictions from flight theory.

    PubMed

    Pennycuick, C J; Åkesson, Susanne; Hedenström, Anders

    2013-09-06

    We measured the air speeds of 31 bird species, for which we had body mass and wing measurements, migrating along the east coast of Sweden in autumn, using a Vectronix Vector 21 ornithodolite and a Gill WindSonic anemometer. We expected each species' average air speed to exceed its calculated minimum-power speed (Vmp), and to fall below its maximum-range speed (Vmr), but found some exceptions to both limits. To resolve these discrepancies, we first reduced the assumed induced power factor for all species from 1.2 to 0.9, attributing this to splayed and up-turned primary feathers, and then assigned body drag coefficients for different species down to 0.060 for small waders, and up to 0.12 for the mute swan, in the Reynolds number range 25 000-250 000. These results will be used to amend the default values in existing software that estimates fuel consumption in migration, energy heights on arrival and other aspects of flight performance, using classical aeronautical theory. The body drag coefficients are central to range calculations. Although they cannot be measured on dead bird bodies, they could be checked against wind tunnel measurements on living birds, using existing methods.

  13. Interlayer vacancy defects in AA-stacked bilayer graphene: density functional theory predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuong, A.; Trevethan, T.; Latham, C. D.; Ewels, C. P.; Erbahar, D.; Briddon, P. R.; Rayson, M. J.; Heggie, M. I.

    2017-04-01

    AA-stacked graphite and closely related structures, where carbon atoms are located in registry in adjacent graphene layers, are a feature of graphitic systems including twisted and folded bilayer graphene, and turbostratic graphite. We present the results of ab initio density functional theory calculations performed to investigate the complexes that are formed from the binding of vacancy defects across neighbouring layers in AA-stacked bilayers. As with AB stacking, the carbon atoms surrounding lattice vacancies can form interlayer structures with sp 2 bonding that are lower in energy than in-plane reconstructions. The sp 2 interlayer bonding of adjacent multivacancy defects in registry creates a type of stable sp 2 bonded ‘wormhole’ or tunnel defect between the layers. We also identify a new class of ‘mezzanine’ structure characterised by sp 3 interlayer bonding, resembling a prismatic vacancy loop. The V 6 hexavacancy variant, where six sp 3 carbon atoms sit midway between two carbon layers and bond to both, is substantially more stable than any other vacancy aggregate in AA-stacked layers. Our focus is on vacancy generation and aggregation in the absence of extreme temperatures or intense beams.

  14. Syntactic Recursion Facilitates and Working Memory Predicts Recursive Theory of Mind

    PubMed Central

    Arslan, Burcu; Hohenberger, Annette; Verbrugge, Rineke

    2017-01-01

    In this study, we focus on the possible roles of second-order syntactic recursion and working memory in terms of simple and complex span tasks in the development of second-order false belief reasoning. We tested 89 Turkish children in two age groups, one younger (4;6–6;5 years) and one older (6;7–8;10 years). Although second-order syntactic recursion is significantly correlated with the second-order false belief task, results of ordinal logistic regressions revealed that the main predictor of second-order false belief reasoning is complex working memory span. Unlike simple working memory and second-order syntactic recursion tasks, the complex working memory task required processing information serially with additional reasoning demands that require complex working memory strategies. Based on our results, we propose that children’s second-order theory of mind develops when they have efficient reasoning rules to process embedded beliefs serially, thus overcoming a possible serial processing bottleneck. PMID:28072823

  15. Consumer-resource theory predicts dynamic transitions between outcomes of interspecific interactions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2009-01-01

    Interactions between two populations are often defined by their interaction outcomes; that is, the positive, neutral, or negative effects of species on one another. Yet, signs of outcomes are not absolute, but vary with the biotic and abiotic contexts of interactions. Here, we develop a general theory for transitions between outcomes based on consumer-resource (C-R) interactions in which one or both species exploit the other as a resource. Simple models of C-R interactions revealed multiple equilibria, including one for species coexistence and others for extinction of one or both species, indicating that species densities alone could determine the fate of interactions. All possible outcomes (+ +), (+ -), (- -), (+ 0), (- 0), (0 0) of species coexistence emerged merely through changes in parameter values of C-R interactions, indicating that variation in C-R interactions resulting from biotic and abiotic conditions could determine shifts in outcomes. These results suggest that C-R interactions can provide a broad mechanism for understanding context- and density-dependent transitions between interaction outcomes.

  16. Density functional theory predictions of the composition of atomic layer deposition-grown ternary oxides.

    PubMed

    Murray, Ciaran; Elliott, Simon D

    2013-05-01

    The surface reactivity of various metal precursors with different alkoxide, amide, and alkyl ligands during the atomic layer deposition (ALD) of ternary oxides was determined using simplified theoretical models. Quantum chemical estimations of the Brønsted reactivity of a metal complex precursor at a hydroxylated surface are made using a gas-phase hydrolysis model. The geometry optimized structures and energies for a large suite of 17 metal precursors (including cations of Mg, Ca, Sr, Sc, Y, La, Ti, Zr, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Al, and Ga) with five different anionic ligands (conjugate bases of tert-butanol, tetramethyl heptanedione, dimethyl amine, isopropyl amidine, and methane) and the corresponding hydrolyzed complexes are calculated using density functional theory (DFT) methods. The theoretically computed energies are used to determine the energetics of the model reactions. These DFT models of hydrolysis are used to successfully explain the reactivity and resulting stoichiometry in terms of metal cation ratios seen experimentally for a variety of ALD-grown ternary oxide systems.

  17. Covariant Spectator Theory of heavy-light and heavy mesons and the predictive power of covariant interaction kernels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leitão, Sofia; Stadler, Alfred; Peña, M. T.; Biernat, Elmar P.

    2017-01-01

    The Covariant Spectator Theory (CST) is used to calculate the mass spectrum and vertex functions of heavy-light and heavy mesons in Minkowski space. The covariant kernel contains Lorentz scalar, pseudoscalar, and vector contributions. The numerical calculations are performed in momentum space, where special care is taken to treat the strong singularities present in the confining kernel. The observed meson spectrum is very well reproduced after fitting a small number of model parameters. Remarkably, a fit to a few pseudoscalar meson states only, which are insensitive to spin-orbit and tensor forces and do not allow to separate the spin-spin from the central interaction, leads to essentially the same model parameters as a more general fit. This demonstrates that the covariance of the chosen interaction kernel is responsible for the very accurate prediction of the spin-dependent quark-antiquark interactions.

  18. The wet solidus of silica: Predictions from the scaled particle theory and polarized continuum model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ottonello, G.; Richet, P.; Vetuschi Zuccolini, M.

    2015-02-01

    We present an application of the Scaling Particle Theory (SPT) coupled with an ab initio assessment of the electronic, dispersive, and repulsive energy terms based on the Polarized Continuum Model (PCM) aimed at reproducing the observed solubility behavior of OH2 over the entire compositional range from pure molten silica to pure water and wide pressure and temperature regimes. It is shown that the solution energy is dominated by cavitation terms, mainly entropic in nature, which cause a large negative solution entropy and a consequent marked increase of gas phase fugacity with increasing temperatures. Besides, the solution enthalpy is negative and dominated by electrostatic terms which depict a pseudopotential well whose minimum occurs at a low water fraction (XH2O) of about 6 mol. %. The fine tuning of the solute-solvent interaction is achieved through very limited adjustments of the electrostatic scaling factor γel which, in pure water, is slightly higher than the nominal value (i.e., γel = 1.224 against 1.2), it attains its minimum at low H2O content (γel = 0.9958) and then rises again at infinite dilution (γel = 1.0945). The complex solution behavior is interpreted as due to the formation of energetically efficient hydrogen bonding when OH functionals are in appropriate amount and relative positioning with respect to the discrete OH2 molecules, reinforcing in this way the nominal solute-solvent inductive interaction. The interaction energy derived from the SPT-PCM calculations is then recast in terms of a sub-regular Redlich-Kister expansion of appropriate order whereas the thermodynamic properties of the H2O component at its standard state (1-molal solution referred to infinite dilution) are calculated from partial differentiation of the solution energy over the intensive variables.

  19. Predicting the STEM outcomes of academically qualified women: A longitudinal examination of social cognitive career theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wasson, Jillian Woodford

    There is a well-documented gender disparity in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields, which has been the focus of research for several decades (i.e., Betz & Hackett, 1981; Ceci & Williams, 2009, 2010; Wang, Eccles, & Kenny, 2013). Questions as to why this is the case are not new; however, with the growing body of research, there seem to be more questions than answers. This study drew primarily from the vocational psychology literature, particularly Social Cognitive Career Theory, building on previous literature in this area by examining differences in career choices made over time by qualified women across different stages in the education-to-career pathway. The results of the present study indicate that among qualified women many of the SCCT personal and contextual variables are relevant to STEM career development. Moreover, findings from the present study support the hypothesis (Lent et al., 1994) that personal, environmental, and behavioral variables affect one another. An important aspect of the SCCT model is the acknowledgment that at any given point in time, certain variables will carry different weight (Lent et al., 1994). The current study provides further support for this and underscores the necessity of understanding and framing career development as a process, unfolding across several developmental stages. These findings, their generalizability, and implications for practice should be carefully considered in the context of several limitations that this sample was influenced by: limitations in reliability and selection of variables, lack of diversity within the sample, as well as the extraneous variables related to overall economic and political backdrop.

  20. The wet solidus of silica: Predictions from the scaled particle theory and polarized continuum model

    SciTech Connect

    Ottonello, G. Vetuschi Zuccolini, M.; Richet, P.

    2015-02-07

    We present an application of the Scaling Particle Theory (SPT) coupled with an ab initio assessment of the electronic, dispersive, and repulsive energy terms based on the Polarized Continuum Model (PCM) aimed at reproducing the observed solubility behavior of OH{sub 2} over the entire compositional range from pure molten silica to pure water and wide pressure and temperature regimes. It is shown that the solution energy is dominated by cavitation terms, mainly entropic in nature, which cause a large negative solution entropy and a consequent marked increase of gas phase fugacity with increasing temperatures. Besides, the solution enthalpy is negative and dominated by electrostatic terms which depict a pseudopotential well whose minimum occurs at a low water fraction (X{sub H{sub 2O}}) of about 6 mol. %. The fine tuning of the solute-solvent interaction is achieved through very limited adjustments of the electrostatic scaling factor γ{sub el} which, in pure water, is slightly higher than the nominal value (i.e., γ{sub el}  =  1.224 against 1.2), it attains its minimum at low H{sub 2}O content (γ{sub el} = 0.9958) and then rises again at infinite dilution (γ{sub el}   =  1.0945). The complex solution behavior is interpreted as due to the formation of energetically efficient hydrogen bonding when OH functionals are in appropriate amount and relative positioning with respect to the discrete OH{sub 2} molecules, reinforcing in this way the nominal solute-solvent inductive interaction. The interaction energy derived from the SPT-PCM calculations is then recast in terms of a sub-regular Redlich-Kister expansion of appropriate order whereas the thermodynamic properties of the H{sub 2}O component at its standard state (1-molal solution referred to infinite dilution) are calculated from partial differentiation of the solution energy over the intensive variables.