Solute mixing regulates heterogeneity of mineral precipitation in porous media: Effect of Solute Mixing on Precipitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cil, Mehmet B.; Xie, Minwei; Packman, Aaron I.

Synchrotron X-ray microtomography was used to track the spatiotemporal evolution of mineral precipitation and the consequent alteration of the pore structure. Column experiments were conducted by injecting CaCl2 and NaHCO3 solutions into granular porous media either as a premixed supersaturated solution (external mixing) or as separate solutions that mixed within the specimen (internal mixing). The two mixing modes produced distinct mineral growth patterns. While internal mixing promoted transverse heterogeneity with precipitation at the mixing zone, external mixing favored relatively homogeneous precipitation along the flow direction. The impact of precipitation on pore water flow and permeability was assessed via 3-D flowmore » simulations, which indicated anisotropic permeability evolution for both mixing modes. Under both mixing modes, precipitation decreased the median pore size and increased the skewness of the pore size distribution. Such similar pore-scale evolution patterns suggest that the clogging of individual pores depends primarily on local supersaturation state and pore geometry.« less

How does altered precipitation and annual grass invasion affect plant N uptake in a native semi-arid shrub community?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritz, M.; Lipson, D.; Cleland, E. E.

2012-12-01

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns, which will change the timing and amount of plant resources. Precipitation patterns determine water and nitrogen (N) availability, because water stimulates microbial N turnover and N transport. In order for plants to utilize water and N, they must coincide with the phenology and meet physiological requirements of the plant. As resource supply shifts, differences in species' ability to acquire resources will affect plant community composition. Semiarid ecosystems, such as shrublands in Southern California, are particularly sensitive to shifts in precipitation because they are severely water limited. This study takes advantage of the altered phenology and resource demands presented by invasive annual grasses in a native semiarid shrubland. The goal is to understand how altered precipitation patterns affect plant N uptake. Rainfall levels were manipulated to 50% and 150% of ambient levels. It is expected that higher rainfall levels promote annual grass invasion because grasses have higher water and N requirements and begin to grow earlier in the season than shrubs. A 15N tracer was added with the first rain event and plant samples were collected regularly to track the movement of N into the plants. Net soil N accumulation was determined using resin bags. Invasive grasses altered the timing and amount of N uptake but amount of rainfall had less effect on N distribution. 15N was detected sooner and at higher level in grasses than shrubs. 24hours after the first rain event 15N was detectable in grasses, 15N accumulated rapidly and peaked 2 months earlier than shrubs. Shrub 15N levels remained at pre-rain event levels for the first 2 months and began to increase at the beginning of spring, peak mid-spring and decline as the shrubs entered summer dormancy. One year later 15N levels in annual grass litter remained high, while 15N levels in shrubs returned to initial background levels as a result of resorption. 15N concentrations are more variable in grasses which could indicate higher plasticity in grass N uptake compared to shrubs. Resin N supports the 15N patterns. Resin N declined more rapidly under grasses and was lower than under shrubs, presumably due to high grass N uptake. Resin N was particularly high under shrubs in wetter conditions indicating that shrubs could not take advantage of high N supply. Together the 15N and resin N patterns indicate that grasses accumulate more N and begin N uptake earlier in the season than shrubs. Although 15N did not differ in response to rainfall, invasion alters the distribution of N in the system. Rain was only manipulated for one growing season; multiple years of altered precipitation may yield significant differences. Early season N uptake by grasses, the low variability in shrub 15N and low shrub 15N in wetter conditions, despite high resin N, indicates that N competition between invasive grasses and native shrubs is weak. If N supply is sufficient for shrub demands, invasive grasses and shrubs could coexist. This study contributes to a broader understanding of how changes in resource supply, plant phenology and functional type interact and respond to climate change.

Green technologies for reducing slope erosion.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

As climate change alters precipitation patterns, departments of transportation will increasingly face the problem of : slope failures, which already cost California millions of dollars in repair work annually. Caltrans hopes to prevent : these failur...

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

2016-01-01

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

LIFETIME AND TEMPORAL OCCURRENCE OF ECTOMYCORRHIZAE ON PONDEROSA PINE (PINUS PONDEROSA LAWS.) SEEDLINGS GROWN UNDER VARIED ATMOSPHERIC CO-2 AND NITROGEN LEVELS

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change(elevated atmospheric CO-2,and altered air temperatures,precipitation amounts and seasonal patterns)may affect ecosystem processes by altering carbon allocation in plants,and carbon flux from plants to soil.Mycorrhizal fungi,as carbon sinks, are among the first soil...

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knapp, Alan K.; Avolio, Meghan L.; Beier, Claus; Carroll, Charles J.W.; Collins, Scott L.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fraser, Lauchlan H.; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J.; Hoover, David L.; Jentsch, Anke; Loik, Michael E.; Phillips, Richard P.; Post, Alison K.; Sala, Osvaldo E.; Slette, Ingrid J.; Yahdjian, Laura; Smith, Melinda D.

2017-01-01

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years.

PubMed

Knapp, Alan K; Avolio, Meghan L; Beier, Claus; Carroll, Charles J W; Collins, Scott L; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J; Hoover, David L; Jentsch, Anke; Loik, Michael E; Phillips, Richard P; Post, Alison K; Sala, Osvaldo E; Slette, Ingrid J; Yahdjian, Laura; Smith, Melinda D

2017-05-01

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of 'Drought-Net', a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites - a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Altered precipitation patterns with a shift from snow to rain in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavelsky, T. M.; Sobolowski, S.; Kapnick, S. B.; Barnes, J. B.

2011-12-01

Precipitation patterns in mountain environments affect global water resources and major hazards such as floods and landslides. In mid-latitude mountain ranges such as the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, much of the precipitation falls as snow, which accumulates and acts as a natural reservoir. As in many snowfall-dependent regions, California water infrastructure has been designed to capture warm season snowmelt runoff and transport it to otherwise dry areas where it is needed. Recent studies suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to result in a substantial shift from snow to rain in the Sierra Nevada during the 21st century. One mechanism for changing spatial patterns in precipitation that has not received substantial attention arises directly from a phase change associated with winter temperatures rising above freezing with greater frequency. Because the fall speed of rain is greater than snow, it is not advected as far as snow by the prevailing winds. We hypothesize that an extreme change from snow to rain will result in a substantial westward shift in annual precipitation under a warming climate. To test this hypothesis, we conducted two climate simulations over the central Sierra Nevada using the WRF regional climate model version 3.1.1 for the period October 2001 to September 2002. Both simulations used nested domains with grid spacings of 27 km, 9 km, and 3 km. The first simulation is a control run, while the second run is an idealized simulation in which fall speeds for snow and graupel are set to be identical to those of raindrops. Comparison of the two runs suggests that a change from snow to rain would yield substantial changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation. However, these patterns are fully realized only in the 3 km domain. In the 9 km and especially the 27 km domain these patterns are substantially attenuated, likely due to less detailed orographic forcing. In the 3 km domain, precipitation increases substantially on windward slopes west of the principal drainage divide, in some areas by more than 1400 mm (115%). Conversely, the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada becomes substantially drier, with decreases of as much as 886 mm (67%) in some areas. Overall, in a rain-only environment precipitation increases by an average of 135 mm (12%) on the west side of the divide and decreases by 174 mm (45%) on the east side compared to present-day conditions. While these results represent an idealized, extreme case in which all snow falls at the speed of rain from the same hydrometeor formation locations, they suggest that changes in spatial precipitation patterns associated with altered precipitation phase may have substantial effects on water resources, particularly the distribution of total precipitation across water basins, partition of water supply across collocated aqueducts, ecology, natural hazards such as floods and landslides, and other components of natural and human systems in the Sierra Nevada and the state of California more generally.

Applying an orographic precipitation model to improve mass balance modeling of the Juneau Icefield, AK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roth, A. C.; Hock, R.; Schuler, T.; Bieniek, P.; Aschwanden, A.

2017-12-01

Mass loss from glaciers in Southeast Alaska is expected to alter downstream ecological systems as runoff patterns change. To investigate these potential changes under future climate scenarios, distributed glacier mass balance modeling is required. However, the spatial resolution gap between global or regional climate models and the requirements for glacier mass balance modeling studies must be addressed first. We have used a linear theory of orographic precipitation model to downscale precipitation from both the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and ERA-Interim to the Juneau Icefield region over the period 1979-2013. This implementation of the LT model is a unique parameterization that relies on the specification of snow fall speed and rain fall speed as tuning parameters to calculate the cloud time delay, τ. We assessed the LT model results by considering winter precipitation so the effect of melt was minimized. The downscaled precipitation pattern produced by the LT model captures the orographic precipitation pattern absent from the coarse resolution WRF and ERA-Interim precipitation fields. Observational data constraints limited our ability to determine a unique parameter combination and calibrate the LT model to glaciological observations. We established a reference run of parameter values based on literature and performed a sensitivity analysis of the LT model parameters, horizontal resolution, and climate input data on the average winter precipitation. The results of the reference run showed reasonable agreement with the available glaciological measurements. The precipitation pattern produced by the LT model was consistent regardless of parameter combination, horizontal resolution, and climate input data, but the precipitation amount varied strongly with these factors. Due to the consistency of the winter precipitation pattern and the uncertainty in precipitation amount, we suggest a precipitation index map approach to be used in combination with a distributed mass balance model for future mass balance modeling studies of the Juneau Icefield. The LT model has potential to be used in other regions in Alaska and elsewhere with strong orographic effects for improved glacier mass balance modeling and/or hydrological modeling.

Urban Heat Islands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Rickman, Doug L.; Estes, Maury G.

2011-01-01

It is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. This conversion of the natural landscape vegetation into man-made urban structures such as roads and buildings drastically alter the regional surface energy budgets, hydrology, precipitation patterns, and meteorology. Research studies from many cities have documented these effects range from decreases in air quality, increased energy consumption and alteration of regional climate to direct effects on human health.

Global change and biological soil crusts: Effects of ultraviolet augmentation under altered precipitation regimes and nitrogen additions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, J.; Phillips, S.L.; Flint, S.; Money, J.; Caldwell, M.

2008-01-01

Biological soil crusts (BSCs), a consortium of cyanobacteria, lichens, and mosses, are essential in most dryland ecosystems. As these organisms are relatively immobile and occur on the soil surface, they are exposed to high levels of ultraviolet (UV) radiation and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, rising temperatures, and alterations in precipitation patterns. In this study, we applied treatments to three types of BSCs (early, medium, and late successional) over three time periods (spring, summer, and spring-fall). In the first year, we augmented UV and altered precipitation patterns, and in the second year, we augmented UV and N. In the first year, with average air temperatures, we saw little response to our treatments except quantum yield, which was reduced in dark BSCs during one of three sample times and in Collema BSCs two of three sample times. There was more response to UV augmentation the second year when air temperatures were above average. Declines were seen in 21% of the measured variables, including quantum yield, chlorophyll a, UV-protective pigments, nitrogenase activity, and extracellular polysaccharides. N additions had some negative effects on light and dark BSCs, including the reduction of quantum yield, ??-carotene, nitrogenase activity, scytonemin, and xanthophylls. N addition had no effects on the Collema BSCs. When N was added to samples that had received augmented UV, there were only limited effects relative to samples that received UV without N. These results indicate that the negative effect of UV and altered precipitation on BSCs will be heightened as global temperatures increase, and that as their ability to produce UV-protective pigments is compromised, physiological functioning will be impaired. N deposition will only ameliorate UV impacts in a limited number of cases. Overall, increases in UV will likely lead to lowered productivity and increased mortality in BSCs through time, which, in turn, will reduce their ability to contribute to the stability and fertility of soils in dryland regions. ?? 2008 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Increased temperature and altered summer precipitation have differential effects on biological soil crusts in a dryland ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Shannon L.; Kuske, Cheryl R.; Carney, Travis D.; Housman, David C.; Gallegos-Graves, La Verne; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are common and ecologically important members of dryland ecosystems worldwide, where they stabilize soil surfaces and contribute newly fixed C and N to soils. To test the impacts of predicted climate change scenarios on biocrusts in a dryland ecosystem, the effects of a 2–3 °C increase in soil temperature and an increased frequency of smaller summer precipitation events were examined in a large, replicated field study conducted in the cold desert of the Colorado Plateau, USA. Surface soil biomass (DNA concentration), photosynthetically active cyanobacterial biomass (chlorophyll a concentration), cyanobacterial abundance (quantitative PCR assay), and bacterial community composition (16S rRNA gene sequencing) were monitored seasonally over 2 years. Soil microbial biomass and bacterial community composition were highly stratified between the 0–2 cm depth biocrusts and 5–10 cm depth soil beneath the biocrusts. The increase in temperature did not have a detectable effect on any of the measured parameters over 2 years. However, after the second summer of altered summer precipitation pattern, significant declines occurred in the surface soil biomass (avg. DNA concentration declined 38%), photosynthetic cyanobacterial biomass (avg. chlorophyll a concentration declined 78%), cyanobacterial abundance (avg. gene copies g−1 soil declined 95%), and proportion of Cyanobacteria in the biocrust bacterial community (avg. representation in sequence libraries declined 85%). Biocrusts are important contributors to soil stability, soil C and N stores, and plant performance, and the loss or reduction of biocrusts under an altered precipitation pattern associated with climate change could contribute significantly to lower soil fertility and increased erosion and dust production in dryland ecosystems at a regional scale.

Refugia Research Coalition: A regional-scale approach for connecting refugia science to natural and cultural resource management

EPA Science Inventory

Background / question / methods Warmer air and water temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and altered fire regimes associated with climate change threaten many important natural and cultural resources. Climate change refugia are areas relatively buffered from contempora...

Varying Inundation Regimes Differentially Affect Natural and Sand-Amended Marsh Sediments

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change is altering sea-level rise rates and precipitation patterns worldwide. Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to these changes. System responses to stressors are important for resource managers and environmental stewards to understand in order to best manage them. Thin la...

Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

EPA Science Inventory

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

Short-term precipitation exclusion alters microbial responses to soil moisture in a wet tropical forest.

PubMed

Waring, Bonnie G; Hawkes, Christine V

2015-05-01

Many wet tropical forests, which contain a quarter of global terrestrial biomass carbon stocks, will experience changes in precipitation regime over the next century. Soil microbial responses to altered rainfall are likely to be an important feedback on ecosystem carbon cycling, but the ecological mechanisms underpinning these responses are poorly understood. We examined how reduced rainfall affected soil microbial abundance, activity, and community composition using a 6-month precipitation exclusion experiment at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. Thereafter, we addressed the persistent effects of field moisture treatments by exposing soils to a controlled soil moisture gradient in the lab for 4 weeks. In the field, compositional and functional responses to reduced rainfall were dependent on initial conditions, consistent with a large degree of spatial heterogeneity in tropical forests. However, the precipitation manipulation significantly altered microbial functional responses to soil moisture. Communities with prior drought exposure exhibited higher respiration rates per unit microbial biomass under all conditions and respired significantly more CO2 than control soils at low soil moisture. These functional patterns suggest that changes in microbial physiology may drive positive feedbacks to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations if wet tropical forests experience longer or more intense dry seasons in the future.

Hydro-climatic forcing of dissolved organic carbon in two boreal lakes of Canada.

PubMed

Diodato, Nazzareno; Higgins, Scott; Bellocchi, Gianni; Fiorillo, Francesco; Romano, Nunzio; Guadagno, Francesco M

2016-11-15

The boreal forest of the northern hemisphere represents one of the world's largest ecozones and contains nearly one third of the world's intact forests and terrestrially stored carbon. Long-term variations in temperature and precipitation have been implied in altering carbon cycling in forest soils, including increased fluxes to receiving waters. In this study, we use a simple hydrologic model and a 40-year dataset (1971-2010) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from two pristine boreal lakes (ELA, Canada) to examine the interactions between precipitation and landscape-scale controls of DOC production and export from forest catchments to surface waters. Our results indicate that a simplified hydrologically-based conceptual model can enable the long-term temporal patterns of DOC fluxes to be captured within boreal landscapes. Reconstructed DOC exports from forested catchments in the period 1901-2012 follow largely a sinusoidal pattern, with a period of about 37years and are tightly linked to multi-decadal patterns of precipitation. By combining our model with long-term precipitation estimates, we found no evidence of increasing DOC transport or in-lake concentrations through the 20th century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Patterning of alloy precipitation through external pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franklin, Jack A.

Due to the nature of their microstructure, alloyed components have the benefit of meeting specific design goals across a wide range of electrical, thermal, and mechanical properties. In general by selecting the correct alloy system and applying a proper heat treatment it is possible to create a metallic sample whose properties achieve a unique set of design requirements. This dissertation presents an innovative processing technique intended to control both the location of formation and the growth rates of precipitates within metallic alloys in order to create multiple patterned areas of unique microstructure within a single sample. Specific experimental results for the Al-Cu alloy system will be shown. The control over precipitation is achieved by altering the conventional heat treatment process with an external surface load applied to selected locations during the quench and anneal. It is shown that the applied pressures affect both the rate and directionality of the atomic diffusion in regions close to the loaded surfaces. The control over growth rates is achieved by altering the enthalpic energy required for successful diffusion between lattice sites. Changes in the local chemical free energy required to direct the diffusion of atoms are established by introducing a non-uniform elastic strain energy field within the samples created by the patterned surface pressures. Either diffusion rates or atomic mobility can be selected as the dominating control process by varying the quench rate; with slower quenches having greater control over the mobility of the alloying elements. Results have shown control of Al2Cu precipitation over 100 microns on mechanically polished surfaces. Further experimental considerations presented will address consistency across sample ensembles. This includes repeatable pressure loading conditions and the chemical interaction between any furnace environments and both the alloy sample and metallic pressure loading devices.

Experimental reductions in stream flow alter litter processing and consumer subsidies in headwater streams

Treesearch

Robert M. Northington; Jackson R. Webster

2017-01-01

SummaryForested headwater streams are connected to their surrounding catchments by a reliance on terrestrial subsidies. Changes in precipitation patterns and stream flow represent a potential disruption in stream ecosystem function, as the delivery of terrestrial detritus to aquatic consumers and...

Photosynthesis, growth and maize yields in the context of global change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Maize is the third most important grain crop behind wheat and rice. Global mean temperatures are rising primarily due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions into the earth’s atmosphere. Warmer temperatures over major landmasses are predicted to alter precipitation patterns and to increase the f...

Nitrogen retention in salt marsh systems across nutrient-enrichment, elevation, and precipitation regimes: a multiple stressor experiment

EPA Science Inventory

In the Northeastern U.S., multiple anthropogenic stressors, including changing nutrient loads, accelerated sea-level rise, and altered climactic patterns are co-occurring, and are likely to influence salt marsh nitrogen (N) dynamics. We conducted a multiple stressor mesocosm expe...

Chromium and Tantalum Site Substitution Patterns in Ni3Al (L1(sub 2))gamma(prime)- Precipitates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Booth-Morrison, Christopher; Mao, Zugang; Seidman, David N.; Noebe, Ronald D.

2008-01-01

The site substitution behavior of Cr and Ta in the Ni3Al (Ll2)-type gamma'-precipitates of a Ni-Al-Cr-Ta alloy is investigated by atom-probe tomography (APT) and first-principles calculations. Measurements of the gamma'-phase composition by APT suggest that Al, Cr, and Ta share the Al sublattice sites of the gamma'-precipitates. The calculated substitutional energies of the solute atoms at the Ni and Al sublattice sites indicate that Ta has a strong preference for the Al sites, while Cr has a weak Al site preference. Furthermore, Ta is shown to replace Cr at the Al sublattice sites of the gamma'-precipitates, altering the elemental phase partitioning behavior of the Ni-Al-Cr-Ta alloy.

Reduced transpiration response to precipitation pulses precedes mortality in a piñon-juniper woodland subject to prolonged drought.

PubMed

Plaut, Jennifer A; Wadsworth, W Duncan; Pangle, Robert; Yepez, Enrico A; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T

2013-10-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter the intensity and duration of droughts, but the effects of changing precipitation patterns on vegetation mortality are difficult to predict. Our objective was to determine whether prolonged drought or above-average precipitation altered the capacity to respond to the individual precipitation pulses that drive productivity and survival. We analyzed 5 yr of data from a rainfall manipulation experiment in piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) woodland using mixed effects models of transpiration response to event size, antecedent soil moisture, and post-event vapor pressure deficit. Replicated treatments included irrigation, drought, ambient control and infrastructure control. Mortality was highest under drought, and the reduced post-pulse transpiration in the droughted trees that died was attributable to treatment effects beyond drier antecedent conditions and reduced event size. In particular, trees that died were nearly unresponsive to antecedent shallow soil moisture, suggesting reduced shallow absorbing root area. Irrigated trees showed an enhanced response to precipitation pulses. Prolonged drought initiates a downward spiral whereby trees are increasingly unable to utilize pulsed soil moisture. Thus, the additive effects of future, more frequent droughts may increase drought-related mortality. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Using dendrometer and dendroclimatology data to predict the growth response of Douglas-fir to climate change in the Pacific Northwest, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Altered seasonal climate patterns towards hotter, drier summers through the 21st century resulting from global climate change could affect the growth of coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America. The seasonal effects of temperature, precipitation,...

Altered nutrition during hot droughts will impair forest functions in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossiord, C.; Gessler, A.; Reed, S.; Dickman, L. T.; Collins, A.; Schönbeck, L.; Sevanto, S.; Vilagrosa, A.; McDowell, N. G.

2017-12-01

Rising greenhouse gas emissions will increase atmospheric temperature globally and alter hydrological cycles resulting in more extreme and recurrent droughts in the coming century. Nutrition is a key component affecting the vulnerability of forests to extreme climate. Models typically assume that global warming will enhance nitrogen cycling in terrestrial ecosystems and lead to improved plant functions. Drought on the other hand is expected to weaken the same processes, leading to a clear conflict and inability to predict how nutrition and plant functions will be impacted by a simultaneously warming and drying climate. We used a unique setup consisting of long-term manipulation of climate on mature trees to examine how individual vs. combined warming and drought would alter soil N cycling and tree functions. The site consists of the longest record of tree responses to experimental warming and precipitation reduction in natural conditions.Changes in soil nitrogen cycling (e.g. microbial activity, nitrification and ammonification rates, N concentration) occurred in response to the treatments. In addition, temperature rise and precipitation reduction altered the ability of trees to take up nitrogen and modified nitrogen allocation patterns between aboveground and belowground compartments. Although no additive effect of warming and drying were found for the two studied species, contrasting responses to warming and droughts were observed between the two functional types. Overall, our results show that higher temperature and reduced precipitation will alter the nutrition of forest ecosystems in the future with potentially large consequences for forest functions, structure and biodiversity.

Precipitation-driven carbon balance controls survivorship of desert biocrust mosses.

PubMed

Coe, Kirsten K; Belnap, Jayne; Sparks, Jed P

2012-07-01

Precipitation patterns including the magnitude, timing, and seasonality of rainfall are predicted to undergo substantial alterations in arid regions in the future, and desert organisms may be more responsive to such changes than to shifts in only mean annual rainfall. Soil biocrust communities (consisting of cyanobacteria, lichen, and mosses) are ubiquitous to desert ecosystems, play an array of ecological roles, and display a strong sensitivity to environmental changes. Crust mosses are particularly responsive to changes in precipitation and exhibit rapid declines in biomass and mortality following the addition of small rainfall events. Further, loss of the moss component in biocrusts leads to declines in crust structure and function. In this study, we sought to understand the physiological responses of the widespread and often dominant biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to alterations in rainfall. Moss samples were collected during all four seasons and exposed to two rainfall event sizes and three desiccation period (DP) lengths. A carbon balance approach based on single precipitation events was used to define the carbon gain or loss during a particular hydration period. Rainfall event size was the strongest predictor of carbon balance, and the largest carbon gains were associated with the largest precipitation events. In contrast, small precipitation events resulted in carbon deficits for S. caninervis. Increasing the length of the DP prior to an event resulted in reductions in carbon balance, probably because of the increased energetic cost of hydration following more intense bouts of desiccation. The season of collection (i.e., physiological status of the moss) modulated these responses, and the effects of DP and rainfall on carbon balance were different in magnitude (and often in sign) for different seasons. In particular, S. caninervis displayed higher carbon balances in the winter than in the summer, even for events of identical size. Overall, our results suggest that annual carbon balance and survivorship in biocrust mosses are largely driven by precipitation, and because of the role mosses play in biocrusts, changes in intra-annual precipitation patterns can have implications for hydrology, soil stability, and nutrient cycling in dryland systems.

Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California.

PubMed

Swain, Daniel L; Horton, Daniel E; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

2016-04-01

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949-2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949-2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012-2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California's most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years.

Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California

PubMed Central

Swain, Daniel L.; Horton, Daniel E.; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2016-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949–2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949–2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012–2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California’s most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years. PMID:27051876

Shifts in pore connectivity from precipitation versus groundwater rewetting increases soil carbon loss after drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, A. Peyton; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Benscoter, Brian W.

Droughts and other extreme precipitation events are predicted to increase in intensity, duration and extent, with uncertain implications for terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. Soil wetting from above (precipitation) results in a characteristically different pattern of pore-filling than wetting from below (groundwater), with larger, well-connected pores filling before finer pore spaces, unlike groundwater rise in which capillary forces saturate the finest pores first. Here we demonstrate that pore-scale wetting patterns interact with antecedent soil moisture conditions to alter pore-, core- and field-scale C dynamics. Drought legacy and wetting direction are perhaps more important determinants of short-term C mineralization than current soilmore » moisture content in these soils. Our results highlight that microbial access to C is not solely limited by physical protection, but also by drought or wetting-induced shifts in hydrologic connectivity. We argue that models should treat soil moisture within a three-dimensional framework emphasizing hydrologic conduits for C and resource diffusion.« less

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to western mountains and forests

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman

2009-01-01

Observed climate changes in the Western Mountains and Forests bioregion include increased seasonal, annual, minimum, and maximum temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and a shift toward earlier timing of peak runoff. These climatic changes have resulted in widespread mortality in western forests, species range shifts and changes in phenology, productivity, and...

Hydroregime prediction models for ephemeral groundwater-driven sinkhole wetlands: a planning tool for climate change and amphibian conservation

Treesearch

C. H. Greenberg; S. Goodrick; J. D. Austin; B. R. Parresol

2015-01-01

Hydroregimes of ephemeral wetlands affect reproductive success of many amphibian species and are sensitive to altered weather patterns associated with climate change.We used 17 years of weekly temperature, precipitation, and waterdepth measurements for eight small, ephemeral, groundwaterdriven sinkhole wetlands in Florida sandhills to develop a hydroregime predictive...

Tamm Review: Shifting global fire regimes: Lessons from reburns and research needs

Treesearch

Susan J. Prichard; Camille S. Stevens-Rumann; Paul F. Hessburg

2017-01-01

Across the globe, rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns have caused persistent regional droughts, lengthened fire seasons, and increased the number of weather-driven extreme fire events. Because wildfires currently impact an increasing proportion of the total area burned, land managers need to better understand reburns – in which previously burned...

Soil microbial and nutrient responses to 7 years of seasonally altered precipitation in a Chihuahuan Desert grassland.

PubMed

Bell, Colin W; Tissue, David T; Loik, Michael E; Wallenstein, Matthew D; Acosta-Martinez, Veronica; Erickson, Richard A; Zak, John C

2014-05-01

Soil microbial communities in Chihuahuan Desert grasslands generally experience highly variable spatiotemporal rainfall patterns. Changes in precipitation regimes can affect belowground ecosystem processes such as decomposition and nutrient cycling by altering soil microbial community structure and function. The objective of this study was to determine if increased seasonal precipitation frequency and magnitude over a 7-year period would generate a persistent shift in microbial community characteristics and soil nutrient availability. We supplemented natural rainfall with large events (one/winter and three/summer) to simulate increased precipitation based on climate model predictions for this region. We observed a 2-year delay in microbial responses to supplemental precipitation treatments. In years 3-5, higher microbial biomass, arbuscular mycorrhizae abundance, and soil enzyme C and P acquisition activities were observed in the supplemental water plots even during extended drought periods. In years 5-7, available soil P was consistently lower in the watered plots compared to control plots. Shifts in soil P corresponded to higher fungal abundances, microbial C utilization activity, and soil pH. This study demonstrated that 25% shifts in seasonal rainfall can significantly influence soil microbial and nutrient properties, which in turn may have long-term effects on nutrient cycling and plant P uptake in this desert grassland. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Have Large Dams Altered Extreme Precipitation Patterns?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, Faisal; Jeyachandran, Indumathi; Pielke, Roger

2009-12-01

Dams and their impounded waters are among the most common civil infrastructures, with a long heritage of modern design and operations experience. In particular, large dams, defined by the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD) as having a height greater than 15 meters from the foundation and holding a reservoir volume of more than 3 million cubic meters, have the potential to vastly transform local climate, landscapes, regional economics, and urbanization patterns. In the United States alone, about 75,000 dams are capable of storing a volume of water equaling almost 1 year's mean runoff of the nation [Graf, 1999]. The World Commission on Dams (WCD) reports that at least 45,000 large dams have been built worldwide since the 1930s. These sheer numbers raise the question of the extent to which large dams and their impounded waters alter patterns that would have been pervasive had the dams not been built.

Structural and functional responses of plant communities to climate change-mediated alterations in the hydrology of riparian areas in temperate Europe.

PubMed

Baattrup-Pedersen, Annette; Garssen, Annemarie; Göthe, Emma; Hoffmann, Carl Christian; Oddershede, Andrea; Riis, Tenna; van Bodegom, Peter M; Larsen, Søren E; Soons, Merel

2018-04-01

The hydrology of riparian areas changes rapidly these years because of climate change-mediated alterations in precipitation patterns. In this study, we used a large-scale in situ experimental approach to explore effects of drought and flooding on plant taxonomic diversity and functional trait composition in riparian areas in temperate Europe. We found significant effects of flooding and drought in all study areas, the effects being most pronounced under flooded conditions. In near-stream areas, taxonomic diversity initially declined in response to both drought and flooding (although not significantly so in all years) and remained stable under drought conditions, whereas the decline continued under flooded conditions. For most traits, we found clear indications that the functional diversity also declined under flooded conditions, particularly in near-stream areas, indicating that fewer strategies succeeded under flooded conditions. Consistent changes in community mean trait values were also identified, but fewer than expected. This can have several, not mutually exclusive, explanations. First, different adaptive strategies may coexist in a community. Second, intraspecific variability was not considered for any of the traits. For example, many species can elongate shoots and petioles that enable them to survive shallow, prolonged flooding but such abilities will not be captured when applying mean trait values. Third, we only followed the communities for 3 years. Flooding excludes species intolerant of the altered hydrology, whereas the establishment of new species relies on time-dependent processes, for instance the dispersal and establishment of species within the areas. We expect that altered precipitation patterns will have profound consequences for riparian vegetation in temperate Europe. Riparian areas will experience loss of taxonomic and functional diversity and, over time, possibly also alterations in community trait responses that may have cascading effects on ecosystem functioning.

Dissolution-Assisted Pattern Formation During Olivine Carbonation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisabeth, Harrison; Zhu, Wenlu; Xing, Tiange; De Andrade, Vincent

2017-10-01

Olivine and pyroxene-bearing rocks in the oceanic crust react with hydrothermal fluids producing changes in the physical characteristics and behaviors of the altered rocks. Notably, these reactions tend to increase solid volume, reducing pore volume, permeability, and available reactive surface area, yet entirely hydrated and/or carbonated rocks are commonly observed in the field. We investigate the evolution of porosity and permeability of fractured dunites reacted with CO2-rich solutions in laboratory experiments. The alteration of crack surfaces changes the mechanical and transport properties of the bulk samples. Analysis of three-dimensional microstructural data shows that although precipitation of secondary minerals causes the total porosity of the sample to decrease, an interconnected network of porosity is maintained through channelized dissolution and coupled carbonate precipitation. The observed microstructure appears to be the result of chemo-mechanical coupling, which may provide a mechanism of porosity maintenance without the need to invoke reaction-driven cracking.

Dissolution-Assisted Pattern Formation During Olivine Carbonation

DOE PAGES

Lisabeth, Harrison; Zhu, Wenlu; Xing, Tiange; ...

2017-08-31

Olivine and pyroxene bearing rocks in the oceanic crust react with hydrothermal fluids producing changes in the physical characteristics and behaviors of the altered rocks. Notably, these reactions tend to increase solid volume, reducing pore volume, permeability and available reactive surface area; yet, entirely hydrated and/or carbonated rocks are commonly observed in the field. We investigate the evolution of porosity and permeability of fractured dunites reacted with CO 2-rich solutions in laboratory experiments. The alteration of crack surfaces changes the mechanical and transport properties of the bulk samples. Analysis of three-dimensional microstructural data shows that although precipitation of secondary mineralsmore » causes the total porosity of the sample to decrease, an interconnected network of porosity is maintained through channelized dissolution and coupled carbonate precipitation. Lastly, the observed microstructure appears to be the result of chemo-mechanical coupling, which may provide a mechanism of porosity maintenance without the need to invoke reaction-driven cracking.« less

Variation in genetic structure and gene flow across the range of Sequoiadendron giganteum (giant sequoia)

Treesearch

Rainbow DeSilva; Richard S. Dodd

2017-01-01

During this century, climate warming and altered precipitation patterns will lead to habitat changes that may be beneficial to some long-lived tree species and detrimental to others. Paleoendemics, with limited and disjunct distributions will face the greatest challenges, as migration rates will be too slow to keep pace with rapid environmental change and populations...

Large-scale causes of variation in the serpentine vegetation of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grace, J.B.; Safford, H.D.; Harrison, S.

2007-01-01

Serpentine vegetation in California ranges from forest to shrubland and grassland, harbors many rare and endemic species, and is only moderately altered by invasive exotic species at the present time. To better understand the factors regulating the distribution of common/representative species, endemic/rare species, and the threat of exotics in this important flora, we analyzed broad-scale community patterns and environmental conditions in a geographically stratified set of samples from across the state. We considered three major classes of environmental influences: climate (especially precipitation), soils (especially the Mg2+/Ca2+ ratio), and the indirect influences of climate on soils. We used ordination to identify the major axes of variation in common species abundances, structural equation models to analyze the relationship of community axes and endemic and exotic species richness to the environment, and group analysis techniques to identify consistent groupings of species and characterize their properties. We found that community variation could be explained by a two-axis ordination. One axis ranged from conifer forest to grassland and was strongly related to precipitation. The second axis ranged from chaparral to grassland and had little relationship to current environmental conditions, suggesting a possible role for successional history. Precipitation and elevation were respectively the largest influences on endemic and exotic richness, followed by Mg 2+/Ca2+. The results also support the idea that long-term precipitation patterns have altered the Mg2+/Ca2+ ratio via selective leaching, resulting in indirect influences on endemics (positive) and exotics (negative) but not affecting the abundances of common species. We discuss implications of these findings for the conservation of the California serpentine flora. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Combined effects of short-term rainfall patterns and soil texture on nitrogen cycling -- A Modeling Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gu, C.; Riley, W.J.

2009-11-01

Precipitation variability and magnitude are expected to change in many parts of the world over the 21st century. We examined the potential effects of intra-annual rainfall patterns on soil nitrogen (N) transport and transformation in the unsaturated soil zone using a deterministic dynamic modeling approach. The model (TOUGHREACT-N), which has been tested and applied in several experimental and observational systems, mechanistically accounts for microbial activity, soil-moisture dynamics that respond to precipitation variability, and gaseous and aqueous tracer transport in the soil. Here, we further tested and calibrated the model against data from a precipitation variability experiment in a tropical systemmore » in Costa Rica. The model was then used to simulate responses of soil moisture, microbial dynamics, nitrogen (N) aqueous and gaseous species, N leaching, and N trace-gas emissions to changes in rainfall patterns; the effect of soil texture was also examined. The temporal variability of nitrate leaching and NO, N{sub 2}, and N{sub 2}O effluxes were significantly influenced by rainfall dynamics. Soil texture combined with rainfall dynamics altered soil moisture dynamics, and consequently regulated soil N responses to precipitation changes. The clay loam soil more effectively buffered water stress during relatively long intervals between precipitation events, particularly after a large rainfall event. Subsequent soil N aqueous and gaseous losses showed either increases or decreases in response to increasing precipitation variability due to complex soil moisture dynamics. For a high rainfall scenario, high precipitation variability resulted in as high as 2.4-, 2.4-, 1.2-, and 13-fold increases in NH{sub 3}, NO, N{sub 2}O and NO{sub 3}{sup -} fluxes, respectively, in clay loam soil. In sandy loam soil, however, NO and N{sub 2}O fluxes decreased by 15% and 28%, respectively, in response to high precipitation variability. Our results demonstrate that soil N cycling responses to increasing precipitation variability depends on precipitation amount and soil texture, and that accurate prediction of future N cycling and gas effluxes requires models with relatively sophisticated representation of the relevant processes.« less

Tropical circulation and precipitation response to ozone depletion and recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brönnimann, Stefan; Jacques-Coper, Martín; Rozanov, Eugene; Fischer, Andreas M.; Morgenstern, Olaf; Zeng, Guang; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Yamashita, Yousuke

2017-06-01

Among the few well established changes in atmospheric circulation in recent decades are those caused by stratospheric ozone depletion. They include a strengthening and poleward contraction of the westerly atmospheric circulation over the Southern extratropics, i.e. a strengthening Southern Annular Mode (SAM), in austral spring and summer. Associated effects on extratropical temperature and precipitation and more recently subtropical precipitation have been documented and are understood in a zonal mean framework. We present zonally asymmetric effects of ozone depletion that reach into the tropics and affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation, including the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the most important rainband of the Southern Hemisphere. Using observation-based analyses and model simulations we show that over the 1961-1996 period, ozone depletion led to increased precipitation at the northern flank of the SPCZ and to decreased precipitation to the south. The effects originate from a flow pattern over the southwestern Pacific that extends equatorward and alters the propagation of synoptic waves and thus the position of the SPCZ. Model simulations suggest that anticipated stratospheric ozone recovery over the next decades will reverse these effects.

21st Century Changes in Precipitation Extremes Based on Resolved Atmospheric Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; O'Gorman, P. A.; Monier, E.

2014-12-01

Global warming is expected to alter the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Such changes could have substantial ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. However, climate models in general do not correctly reproduce the frequency distribution of precipitation, especially at the regional scale. In this study, a validated analogue method is employed to diagnose the potential future shifts in the probability of extreme precipitation over the United States under global warming. The method is based on the use of the resolved large-scale meteorological conditions (i.e. flow features, moisture supply) to detect the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The CMIP5 multi-model projections have been compiled for two radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). We further analyze the accompanying circulation features and their changes that may be responsible for shifts in extreme precipitation in response to changed climate. The application of such analogue method to detect other types of hazard events, i.e. landslides is also explored. The results from this study may guide hazardous weather watches and help society develop adaptive strategies for preventing catastrophic losses.

Precipitation variability in the Four Corners region USA from 2002 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulley-Cordova, C. L.; Bowen, G. J.; Brady, I.; Bekis, J.

2016-12-01

Due to the arid climate, the Navajo Nation situated in the southwestern United States (US) is sensitive to small changes in precipitation. The Navajo Nation is the largest land based tribe in the US; Navajo residents, wildlife, livestock, and vegetation are highly dependent on water resources including precipitation, surface, ground, and spring waters for vitality. Changes in precipitation directly impacts the Navajo Nation's ecosystem including a variety of interconnected effects such as ground water recharge, frequency of dust migration and strength of winds, flow in ephemeral and perennial streams, plant and animal populations, wildfires, change in vegetative cover and possible alterations in species composition. This study examines hydroclimatic changes during months, seasons, and water years across the Navajo Nation from 2002 to 2015 and how Four Corners USA precipitation variability and trends compares to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Examination of spatial and temporal trends of precipitation variability during this time period can be used to assist an area with limited water management infrastructure with future water planning and help understand a region that has been poorly studied in the past.

Insights into drying of non-circular sessile nanofluid droplet towards multi-scale surface patterning using a wall-less confinement architecture.

PubMed

Kabi, Prasenjit; Chaudhuri, Swetaprovo; Basu, Saptarshi

2016-10-04

Surface patterning with functional colloids is an important research area due to its widespread applicability in domains ranging from nano-electronics, pharmaceutics, semi-conductors, photovoltaics among others. To this endeavour, we propose a low-cost patterning technique that aspires to eliminate the more expensive methodologies presently in practise. Using a simple document stamp on which patterns of any geometry can be embossed, we are able to print two-dimensional mm-scale "wall-less confinement" using ink based hydrophobic fence on any plasma treated superhydrophilic surface. The confinement is subsequently filled with nanocolloidal liquid(s). Using the confinement geometry, we are able to control the 3D shape of the droplet to exhibit multiple interfacial curvatures. The droplet in the "wall-less confinements" evaporates naturally exhibiting unique geometry (curvature) induced flow structures which induce the nanoparticles to self-assemble into functional patterns. We have also shown that by modifying the geometry of the pattern, evaporation, flow and particle deposition dynamics get altered leading to precipitate topologies from macro to microscales. We, present two such geometrical designs which demonstrate the capability of modifying both the macroscopic as well as the microscopic features of the final precipitate. We have also provided a description of the physical mechanisms of the drying process by resolving the unique flow pattern using a combination of imaging and μPIV (micro particle image velocimetry). These provide insights into the coupled dynamics of evaporation and flow responsible for the evolution of particle deposition pattern. Precipitate characterization using SEM and dark-field microscopy highlight the transformation in the deposit morphology.

Atmospheric circulation patterns and spatial climatic variations in Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary J.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Patricia M.

1998-08-01

Analyses of more than 40 years of climatic data reveal intriguing spatial variations in climatic patterns for Beringia (North-eastern Siberia and Alaska), aiding the understanding of the hierarchy of climatic controls that operate at different spatial scales within the Arctic. A synoptic climatology, using a subjective classification methodology on January and July sea level pressure, and July 500 hPa height anomaly patterns, identified 13 major atmospheric circulation patterns (26 pairs consisting of 13 synoptic/temperature and 13 synoptic/precipitation comparisons) that occur over Beringia. Composite anomaly maps of circulation, temperature, and precipitation described the spatial variability of surface climatic responses to circulation. Results indicate that nine synoptic pairs yield homogeneous surface climatic anomaly patterns throughout most of Beringia. However, many of the surface climatic responses illustrate heterogeneous anomaly patterns as a result of variations in circulation controls, such as troughing over East Asia and the Pacific subtropical high superimposed over topography, with small shifts in atmospheric circulation dramatically altering spatial variations of anomaly patterns. Distinctive contrasts in climatic responses, as suggested from ten synoptic pairs, are clearly evident for Western Beringia versus Eastern Beringia. These results offer important implications for scholars interested in assessing late Quaternary climatic change in the region from interannual to millennial timescales.

Microstructure and Thermal History of Metal Particles in CH Chondrites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, J. I.; Jones, R. H.; Kotula, P. G.; Michael, J. R.

2005-01-01

Fe-Ni metal particles with smooth Ni, Co, and Cr zoning patterns, 8-13 wt.% Ni in the center of the particle to 3-5 wt% Ni at the rim, have been identified in several CR-clan (CH, Bencubbinlike, and CR) chondrites. These zoning patterns are broadly consistent with an origin by gas-solid condensation in the solar nebula at temperatures between approximately 1500 to 1300 K and fast cooling rates, 2 to 25 K/day. Apparently, this condensate metal was not melted during chondrule formation or affected significantly in the solid-state by alteration during parent body processing. Consideration of diffusional redistribution of Ni, Co, Cr and siderophile elements have further constrained the calculated condensation temperatures and cooling rates of the zoned condensates. These condensate metals have irregular shapes and vary in size from 50 to 350 m as revealed in some detail by optical and SEM techniques. In addition to zoned condensate particles, other types of metal particles have been observed. These include zoned condensates with exsolution-precipitates, unzoned homogeneous metal with no exsolution precipitates, unzoned metal exhibiting exsolution precipitates and high Ni metal grains.

Investigation of Mineral Alteration in Andesite and Dacite from Three Different Volcano Hydrothermal Systems on Dominica, Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. I. V.; Frey, H. M.; Joseph, E. P.; Manon, M. R. F.

2017-12-01

The thermal discharges of Dominica are classified as steam-heated acidic-sulphate waters, produced by the mixing of shallow ground waters heated by sulphur bearing gases coming from magmatic sources. This study investigates the mineral alteration associated with three hydrothermal areas in Dominica that exhibit different temperature, pH, water composition and surface water abundance. Hydrothermal features (fumaroles, pools, springs) from Sulphur Springs ranged in temperature from 41 - 97 °C and pH from 1-3 in a predominantly gaseous environment, whereas the Valley of Desolation (69-98 °C and pH 1- 4) and the Cold Soufriere (18-32 °C and pH 1-4) have significant inputs of surface water. At each location, the host andesite-dacite rock was enveloped by a thin rind (up 2 cm) of precipitates, but the degree of alteration and rind thickness/composition varied with location. Cobbles from Sulphur Springs (SS) are grayish white in color with a thin outer rind (3-13 mm), and seemingly unaltered cores. Valley of Desolation (VoD) samples have a variety of patterns of alteration, with some clasts a uniform white-orange color, whereas others have variable thicknesses of an altered rind (1-20 mm), with relatively unaltered cores. Multiple hydrothermal minerals precipitated in the outer rinds display distinctive colors, suggestive of sulphides (dark gray), sulphates (orange and yellow), and iron oxides(?) (pink and purple). Cold Soufriere (CS) samples appear to be the most altered, often crumbling at touch. Others had rinds (2-10 mm) and pinkish gray cores that suggest more alteration compared to VoD and SS samples. Preliminary mineral identification of rind compositions was determined by XRD. Scans indicate the presence of silica polymorphs cristobalite and tridymite, as well as pyrite and sulphur. Elemental maps created using a SEM to identify any gradation caused by the elemental leaching and/or precipitation show that the boundaries between the weathering rind and the host rock are distinct. Pyroxenes in the rind are significantly altered and contained gypsum and silica veins, and plagioclase is completely replaced by clay minerals. In the groundmass, there is significant sulphur precipitation, as well as a Ti sulphate/sulfide phase. Additional analysis will allow comparison between the different hydrothermal regions.

Influence of altered precipitation pattern on greenhouse gas emissions and soil enzyme activities in Pannonian soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forstner, Stefan Johannes; Michel, Kerstin; Berthold, Helene; Baumgarten, Andreas; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Kitzler, Barbara

2013-04-01

Precipitation patterns are likely to be altered due to climate change. Recent models predict a reduction of mean precipitation during summer accompanied by a change in short-term precipitation variability for central Europe. Correspondingly, the risk for summer drought is likely to increase. This may especially be valid for regions which already have the potential for rare, but strong precipitation events like eastern Austria. Given that these projections hold true, soils in this area will receive water irregularly in few, heavy rainfall events and be subjected to long-lasting dry periods in between. This pattern of drying/rewetting can alter soil greenhouse gas fluxes, creating a potential feedback mechanism for climate change. Microorganisms are the key players in most soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) transformation processes including greenhouse gas exchange. A conceptual model proposed by Schimel and colleagues (2007) links microbial stress-response physiology to ecosystem-scale biogeochemical processes: In order to cope with decreasing soil water potential, microbes modify resource allocation patterns from growth to survival. However, it remains unclear how microbial resource acquisition via extracellular enzymes and microbial-controlled greenhouse gas fluxes respond to water stress induced by soil drying/rewetting. We designed a laboratory experiment to test for effects of multiple drying/rewetting cycles on soil greenhouse gas fluxes (CO2, CH4, N2O, NO), microbial biomass and extracellular enzyme activity. Three soils representing the main soil types of eastern Austria were collected in June 2012 at the Lysimeter Research Station of the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES) in Vienna. Soils were sieved to 2mm, filled in steel cylinders and equilibrated for one week at 50% water holding capacity (WHC) for each soil. Then soils were separated into two groups: One group received water several times per week (C=control), the other group received water only once in two weeks (D=dry). Both groups received same water totals for each soil. At the end of each two week drying period, greenhouse gas fluxes were measured via an open-chamber-system (CO2, NO) and a closed-chamber-approach (CH4, N2O, CO2). Additional cylinders were harvested destructively to quantify inorganic N forms, microbial biomass C, N and extracellular enzyme activity (Cellulase, Xylanase, Protease, Phenoloxidase, Peroxidase). We hypothesize that after rewetting (1) rates of greenhouse gas fluxes will generally increase, as well as (2) extracellular enzyme activity indicating enhanced microbial activity. However, response may be different for gases and enzymes involved in the C and N cycle, respectively, as drying/rewetting stress may uncouple microbial mediated biogeochemical cycles. Results will be presented at the EGU General Assembly. Reference: Schimel, J., Balser, T.C., and Wallenstein, M. (2007). Microbial stress-response physiology and its implications for ecosystem function. Ecology 88, 1386-1394.

Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L S; Fung, Inez Y; Chiang, John C H

2012-01-17

We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO(2), but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

Clay alteration and gold deposition in the genesis and blue star deposits, Eureka County, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drews-Armitage, S. P.; Romberger, S.B.; Whitney, C.G.

1996-01-01

The Genesis and Blue Star sedimentary rock-hosted gold deposits occur within the 40-mile-long Carlin trend and are located in Eureka County, Nevada. The deposits are hosted within the Devonian calcareous Popovich Formation, the siliciclastic Rodeo Creek unit and the siliciclastic Vinini Formation. The host rocks have undergone contact metamorphism, decalcification, silicification, argillization, and supergene oxidation. Detailed characterization of the alteration patterns, mineralogy, modes of occurrence, and associated geochemistry of clay minerals resulted in the following classifications: least altered rocks, found distal to the orebody, consisting of both metamorphosed and unmetamorphosed host rock that has not been completely decalcified; and altered rocks, found proximal to the orebody that have been decalcified. Altered rocks are classified further into the following groups based on clay mineral content: silicic, 1 to 10 percent clay; silicicargillic, 10 to 35 percent clay; and argillic, 35 to 80 percent clay. Clay species identified are 1M illite, 2M1 illite, kaolinite, halloysite, and dioctahedral smectite. An early hydrothermal event resulted in the precipitation of euhedral kaolinite and at least one generation of silica. This event occurred contemporaneously with decalcification which increased rock permeability and porosity. A second clay alteration event resulted in the precipitation of hydrothermal 1M illite which replaced hydrothermal kaolinite and is associated with gold deposition. Silver and silica deposition is also associated with this phase of hydrothermal alteration. Hydrothermal alteration was followed by supergene alteration which resulted in the formation of supergene kaolinite, halloysite, and smectite as well as the oxidation of iron-bearing minerals. Supergene clays are concentrated along faults, dike margins, and within rocks containing carbonate. Gold mineralization is not associated with supergene clay minerals within the Genesis and Blue Star deposits. Rocks classified as silicic-argillic in the Popovich Formation represent the most significant gold host. Silicicargillic rocks commonly exhibit bedding-parallel alteration zones. This pattern of alteration indicates that stratigraphy as well as northwest-trending structures played a significant role in the migration of gold-bearing fluids. Based on K-Ar age determinations of hydrothermal 1M illite associated with gold, the main event of mineralization in the Genesis and Blue Star deposits occurred between 93 and 100 Ma, during mid-Cretaceous time.

Changing Summer Precipitation Pattern Alters Microbial Community Response to Fall Wet-up in a Mediterranean Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, R. L.; Osborne, C. A.; Firestone, M. K.

2014-12-01

The large soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and a pulse of available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. Here, we investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Changing precipitation pattern alters soil microbial community response to wet-up under a Mediterranean-type climate.

PubMed

Barnard, Romain L; Osborne, Catherine A; Firestone, Mary K

2015-03-17

A large soil CO2 pulse is associated with rewetting soils after the dry summer period under a Mediterranean-type climate, significantly contributing to grasslands' annual carbon budget. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophs and a pulse of available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting changes in carbon cycling. Here, we investigated the effects of extending winter rainfall into the normally dry summer period on soil microbial response to a controlled rewetting event, by following the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores (from a California annual grassland) previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over 4 months (full summer dry season, extended wet season and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria and fungi were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. After having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response. We found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry summer conditions characteristic of the Mediterranean climate is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil microbial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Press-pulse interactions: effects of warming, N deposition, altered winter precipitation, and fire on desert grassland community structure and dynamics.

PubMed

Collins, Scott L; Ladwig, Laura M; Petrie, Matthew D; Jones, Sydney K; Mulhouse, John M; Thibault, James R; Pockman, William T

2017-03-01

Global environmental change is altering temperature, precipitation patterns, resource availability, and disturbance regimes. Theory predicts that ecological presses will interact with pulse events to alter ecosystem structure and function. In 2006, we established a long-term, multifactor global change experiment to determine the interactive effects of nighttime warming, increased atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increased winter precipitation on plant community structure and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in a northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland. In 2009, a lightning-caused wildfire burned through the experiment. Here, we report on the interactive effects of these global change drivers on pre- and postfire grassland community structure and ANPP. Our nighttime warming treatment increased winter nighttime air temperatures by an average of 1.1 °C and summer nighttime air temperature by 1.5 °C. Soil N availability was 2.5 times higher in fertilized compared with control plots. Average soil volumetric water content (VWC) in winter was slightly but significantly higher (13.0% vs. 11.0%) in plots receiving added winter rain relative to controls, and VWC was slightly higher in warmed (14.5%) compared with control (13.5%) plots during the growing season even though surface soil temperatures were significantly higher in warmed plots. Despite these significant treatment effects, ANPP and plant community structure were highly resistant to these global change drivers prior to the fire. Burning reduced the cover of the dominant grasses by more than 75%. Following the fire, forb species richness and biomass increased significantly, particularly in warmed, fertilized plots that received additional winter precipitation. Thus, although unburned grassland showed little initial response to multiple ecological presses, our results demonstrate how a single pulse disturbance can interact with chronic alterations in resource availability to increase ecosystem sensitivity to multiple drivers of global environmental change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Contrasting response of coexisting plant's water-use patterns to experimental precipitation manipulation in an alpine grassland community of Qinghai Lake watershed, China.

PubMed

Wu, Huawu; Li, Jing; Li, Xiao-Yan; He, Bin; Liu, Jinzhao; Jiang, Zhiyun; Zhang, Cicheng

2018-01-01

Understanding species-specific changes in water-use patterns under recent climate scenarios is necessary to predict accurately the responses of seasonally dry ecosystems to future climate. In this study, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment to investigate the changes in water-use patterns of two coexisting species (Achnatherum splendens and Allium tanguticum) to alterations in soil water content (SWC) resulting from increased and decreased rainfall treatments. The results showed that the leaf water potential (Ψ) of A. splendens and A. tanguticum responded to changes in shallow and middle SWC at both the control and treatment plots. However, A. splendens proportionally extracted water from the shallow soil layer (0-10cm) when it was available but shifted to absorbing deep soil water (30-60 cm) during drought. By contrast, the A. tanguticum did not differ significantly in uptake depth between treatment and control plots but entirely depended on water from shallow soil layers. The flexible water-use patterns of A.splendens may be a key factor facilitating its dominance and it better acclimates the recent climate change in the alpine grassland community around Qinghai Lake.

Contrasting response of coexisting plant’s water-use patterns to experimental precipitation manipulation in an alpine grassland community of Qinghai Lake watershed, China

PubMed Central

Li, Xiao-Yan; He, Bin; Liu, Jinzhao; Jiang, Zhiyun; Zhang, Cicheng

2018-01-01

Understanding species-specific changes in water-use patterns under recent climate scenarios is necessary to predict accurately the responses of seasonally dry ecosystems to future climate. In this study, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment to investigate the changes in water-use patterns of two coexisting species (Achnatherum splendens and Allium tanguticum) to alterations in soil water content (SWC) resulting from increased and decreased rainfall treatments. The results showed that the leaf water potential (Ψ) of A. splendens and A. tanguticum responded to changes in shallow and middle SWC at both the control and treatment plots. However, A. splendens proportionally extracted water from the shallow soil layer (0–10cm) when it was available but shifted to absorbing deep soil water (30–60 cm) during drought. By contrast, the A. tanguticum did not differ significantly in uptake depth between treatment and control plots but entirely depended on water from shallow soil layers. The flexible water-use patterns of A.splendens may be a key factor facilitating its dominance and it better acclimates the recent climate change in the alpine grassland community around Qinghai Lake. PMID:29677195

A Century Trend of Precipitation in Forest Watersheds from the Lower Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, G.; Ouyang, Y.; Leininger, T.; Han, Y.

2017-12-01

Estimates of hydrological processes in forest watersheds are essential to water supply planning, water quality protection, water resources management, and ecological restoration; whereas the century precipitation variation due to climate change could exacerbate forest watershed hydrological processes and add uncertainties to the processes. In this study, the multivariate statisitcal analysis technique was employed to identify a century temporal trend of precipitation in forest watersheds from the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB). Seveal surface water monitoring stations in the LMRB, located in forest watersheds with very little land use disturbance and a century record, were selected to obtain precipitation data. Using frequency distribution analysis with HYDSTRA model, we found that the mean annual precipitation in a decadal scale increased as time elapsed over a 100-year period. Our study further revealed that the precipitation intensity for one-hour duration increased sigificantly in every 10 years for a 100-year period. During this period, the annual mean dry day frequency decreased in a decadal scale, whereas the annual mean wet day frequency increased for the same scale. Results indicated the precipitation pattern has been altered in the LMRB and the selected forest watersheds in this basin seems to become wetter during the past 100 years as a result of climate change.

The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Weather Systems to the Warm-Season Precipitation in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritsch, J. M.; Kane, R. J.; Chelius, C. R.

1986-10-01

The contribution of precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season (April-September) rainfall in the United States is evaluated. Both Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC's) and other large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems that do not quite meet Maddox's criteria for being termed an MCC are included in the evaluation. The distribution and geographical limits of the precipitation from the convective weather systems are constructed for the warm seasons of 1982, a `normal' year, and 1983, a drought year. Precipitation characteristics of the systems are compared for the 2 years to determine how large-scale drought patterns affect their precipitation production.The frequency, precipitation characteristics and hydrologic ramifications of multiple occurrences, or series, of convective weather systems are presented and discussed. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the accumulated precipitation from a series of convective complexes is investigated and compared to that of Hurricane Alicia.It is found that mesoscale convective weather systems account for approximately 30% to 70% of the warm-season (April-September) precipitation over much of the region between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River. During the June through August period, their contribution is even larger. Moreover, series of convective weather systems are very likely the most prolific precipitation producer in the United States, rivaling and even exceeding that of hurricanes.Changes in the large-scale circulation patterns affected the seasonal precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems by altering the precipitation characteristics of individual systems. In particular, for the drought period of 1983, the frequency of the convective systems remained nearly the same as in the `normal' year (1982); however, the average precipitation area and the average volumetric production significantly decreased. Nevertheless, the rainfall that was produced by mesoscale convective weather systems in the drought year accounted for most of the precipitation received during the critical crop growth period.It is concluded that mesoscale convective weather systems may be a crucial precipitation-producing deterrent to drought and an important mechanism for enhancing midsummer crop growth throughout the midwestern United States. Furthermore, because mesoscale convective weather systems account for such a large fraction of the warm-season precipitation, significant improvements in prediction of such systems would likely translate into significant improvements in quantitative precipitation forecast skill and corresponding improvements in hydrologic forecasts of runoff.

Effects of altered soil moisture on respiratory quotient in the Edwards Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellers, M. A.; Hawkes, C.; Breecker, D.

2014-12-01

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns around the world. The impacts of altered precipitation on ecosystem function will be partly controlled by soil microbes because of their primary role in soil carbon cycling. However, microbial responses to drought remain poorly understood, particularly local responses that might partly reflect specialization based on historical conditions. Here, we investigated the respiratory response of microbial communities originating from historically wetter and drier sites to both low and high soil moistures. We focused on the respiratory quotient (RQ= moles of CO2 produced per mole of O2 consumed), which varies with the oxidation state of organic carbon being respired and/or the compounds being synthesized by soil microbes. We hypothesized that there would be a shift in RQ across the gradient of soil moisture. Soils were collected from 13 sites across a steep precipitation gradient on the Edwards plateau in central Texas, air-dried, rewet at low or high soil moisture (6% or 24% gravimetric, respectively), and incubated in an atmosphere of 21% O2, 1% Ar, and balance He. After eight weeks, CO2, O2 and Ar in the headspace of incubation vials were measured by gas chromatography after separation of Ar and O2 at subambient temperature. Because of the high calcite content in soils on the Edwards plateau, we corrected the RQ values by assuming pH was buffered at 8 and then adding the calculated amount of CO2 dissolved in water in the incubations vials to the measured CO2 in the headspace. We found that uncorrected RQ values were slightly less than one and increased significantly with increasing mean annual precipitation. In contrast, corrected RQ values were greater than one and decreased with increasing mean annual precipitation. In both cases, we see a shift in RQ across the gradient, suggesting that differences in substrate utilization may vary based on origin across the gradient and with current level of soil moisture. This could provide insight into how microbial communities respond physiologically to shifts in environmental conditions, such as precipitation.

A Multi-Sector Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change at the Energy-Water-Land Nexus in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarland, J.; Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

A Marginal Cost Based "Social Cost of Carbon" Provides Inappropriate Guidance in a World That Needs Rapid and Deep Decarbonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, M. G.; Vaishnav, P.; Azevedo, I. L.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2016-12-01

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

A meta-analysis of responses of soil biota to global change.

PubMed

Blankinship, Joseph C; Niklaus, Pascal A; Hungate, Bruce A

2011-03-01

Global environmental changes are expected to impact the abundance of plants and animals aboveground, but comparably little is known about the responses of belowground organisms. Using meta-analysis, we synthesized results from over 75 manipulative experiments in order to test for patterns in the effects of elevated CO(2), warming, and altered precipitation on the abundance of soil biota related to taxonomy, body size, feeding habits, ecosystem type, local climate, treatment magnitude and duration, and greenhouse CO(2) enrichment. We found that the positive effect size of elevated CO(2) on the abundance of soil biota diminished with time, whereas the negative effect size of warming and positive effect size of precipitation intensified with time. Trophic group, body size, and experimental approaches best explained the responses of soil biota to elevated CO(2), whereas local climate and ecosystem type best explained responses to warming and altered precipitation. The abundance of microflora and microfauna, and particularly detritivores, increased with elevated CO(2), indicative of microbial C limitation under ambient CO(2). However, the effects of CO(2) were smaller in field studies than in greenhouse studies and were not significant for higher trophic levels. Effects of warming did not depend on taxon or body size, but reduced abundances were more likely to occur at the colder and drier sites. Precipitation limited all taxa and trophic groups, particularly in forest ecosystems. Our meta-analysis suggests that the responses of soil biota to global change are predictable and unique for each global change factor.

Growth and physiological plasticity among differentially adapted genotypes of a widespread C4 grass under altered precipitation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods Variation in precipitation expected with climate change may impact plant fitness and alter ecosystem dynamics by modifying species phenology, productivity, and physiology. Species responses to varied precipitation will depend in part on plastic responses of genotypes ad...

The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation

PubMed Central

Thompson, David W. J.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2017-01-01

Abstract We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the relationships between large‐scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and the detailed structure of Antarctic precipitation. We examine linkages between the high spatial resolution precipitation from a regional atmospheric model and four patterns of large‐scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability: the southern baroclinic annular mode, the southern annular mode, and the two Pacific‐South American teleconnection patterns. Variations in all four patterns influence the spatial configuration of precipitation over Antarctica, consistent with their signatures in high‐latitude meridional moisture fluxes. They impact not only the mean but also the incidence of extreme precipitation events. Current coupled‐climate models are able to reproduce all four patterns of atmospheric variability but struggle to correctly replicate their regional impacts on Antarctic climate. Thus, linking these patterns directly to Antarctic precipitation variability may allow a better estimate of future changes in precipitation than using model output alone. PMID:29398735

Remote Sensing the Patterns of Vector-borne Disease in El Nino and non-El Nino Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, B. L.; Chang, J.; Lobitz, B.; Beck, L.; DAntoni, Hector (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino and the patterns of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are long term predictions of changing precipitation and temperature patterns at continental and global scales. At the opposite extreme are the local or site specific ecological changes associated with the long term events. In order to understand and address the human health consequences of El Nino events, especially the patterns of vector-borne diseases, it is necessary to combine both scales of observation. At a local or regional scale the patterns of vector-borne diseases are determined by temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability. These factors, as well as disease incidence can be altered by El Nino events. Remote sensing data such as that acquired by the NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM sensors can be used to characterize and monitor changing ecological conditions and therefore predict vector-borne disease patterns. The authors present the results of preliminary work on the analysis of historical AVHRR and TM data acquired during El Nino and nonfatal Nino years to characterize ecological conditions in Peru on a monthly basis. This information will then be combined with disease data to determine the relationship between changes in ecological conditions and disease incidence. Our goal is to produce a sequence of remotely sensed images which can be used to show the ecological and disease patterns associated with long term El Nino events and predictions.

Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiawei; Xu, Haiming; Deng, Jiechun

2018-04-01

Much research is needed regarding the two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity change and associated precipitation change under both warming targets are explored in this study. The multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5 and 2 °C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR) method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective at tightening the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and Central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, reduced precipitation appears over 30-40° N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low levels and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference between 1.5 and 2 °C, but a pronounced moisture increase during extra 0.5 °C leads to enhanced EASM precipitation over large areas in East Asia at 2 °C warming.

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

Hydrologic Response to Climatic and Vegetation Change in an Extreme Alpine Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livneh, B.; Badger, A.; Molotch, N. P.; Bueno de Mesquita, C.; Suding, K.

2016-12-01

Mountain hydrology and ecology are uniquely sensitive to climate change. This presentation will examine how changes in climate have altered land cover and hydrology in the Green Lakes Valley, an alpine catchment for which approximately 80% of the annual precipitation ( 950 mm/yr) falls as snow. In these environments vegetation has two way interaction with hydrology: its distribution is driven by patterns of snowpack and water availability while it functions to modulate hydrologic responses by alterating land-atmosphere interaction. Long-term climate trends indicate warming, earlier snowmelt, and longer snow-free growing seasons. High-resolution aerial photography from 1972 and 2008 identified vegetation encroachment as shrubs and trees have increased in vigor and density in the tundra, while herbaceous tundra plants have colonized high-elevation bare ground. To understand modulations to physical hydrology from climate and biophysical responses, we apply a 20-m resolution fully-distributed hydrologic model. Through the use of observed meteorology (radiation, humidity, temperature and precipitation) an hourly climatology was created. Realizations from a stochastic ensemble of this climatology together with trends from long-term observations are used to characterize historical hydrologic response and project future changes. Through temperature and precipitation change experiments, alterations to the annual water cycle are presented—indicating the importance of annual snowpack evolution on both the surface and sub-surface hydrology, particularly through seasonal water storage. Probabilistic land cover change scenarios are developed that project how further vegetation encroachment modulates surface water fluxes and sediment yields. Lastly, the context of these results are compared with hydrometeorological research from other differing alpine and ecological regions.

Functional consequences of climate change-induced plant species loss in a tallgrass prairie.

PubMed

Craine, Joseph M; Nippert, Jesse B; Towne, E Gene; Tucker, Sally; Kembel, Steven W; Skibbe, Adam; McLauchlan, Kendra K

2011-04-01

Future climate change is likely to reduce the floristic diversity of grasslands. Yet the potential consequences of climate-induced plant species losses for the functioning of these ecosystems are poorly understood. We investigated how climate change might alter the functional composition of grasslands for Konza Prairie, a diverse tallgrass prairie in central North America. With species-specific climate envelopes, we show that a reduction in mean annual precipitation would preferentially remove species that are more abundant in the more productive lowland positions at Konza. As such, decreases in precipitation could reduce productivity not only by reducing water availability but by also removing species that inhabit the most productive areas and respond the most to climate variability. In support of this prediction, data on species abundance at Konza over 16 years show that species that are more abundant in lowlands than uplands are preferentially reduced in years with low precipitation. Climate change is likely to also preferentially remove species from particular functional groups and clades. For example, warming is forecast to preferentially remove perennials over annuals as well as Cyperaceae species. Despite these predictions, climate change is unlikely to unilaterally alter the functional composition of the tallgrass prairie flora, as many functional traits such as physiological drought tolerance and maximum photosynthetic rates showed little relationship with climate envelope parameters. In all, although climatic drying would indirectly alter grassland productivity through species loss patterns, the insurance afforded by biodiversity to ecosystem function is likely to be sustained in the face of climate change.

Influence of Solar Irradiance on Polar Ionospheric Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrell, A. G.; Yeoman, T. K.; Stephen, M.; Lester, M.

2016-12-01

Plasma convection over the poles shows the result of direct interactions between the terrestrial atmosphere, magnetosphere, and the sun. The paths that the ionospheric plasma takes in the polar cap form a variety of patterns, which have been shown to depend strongly on the direction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) and the reconnection rate. While the IMF and level of geomagnetic activity clearly alter the plasma convection patterns, the influence of changing solar irradiance is also important. The solar irradiance and magnetospheric particle precipitation regulate the rate of plasma production, and thus the ionospheric conductivity. Previous work has demonstrated how season alters the convection patterns observed over the poles, demonstrating the importance that solar photoionisation has on plasma convection. This study investigates the role of solar photoionisation on convection more directly, using measurements of ionospheric convection made by the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) and solar irradiance observations made by the Solar EUV Experiment (SEE) to explore the influence of the solar cycle on ionospheric convection, and the implications this may have on magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling.

The toxicology of climate change: environmental contaminants in a warming world.

PubMed

Noyes, Pamela D; McElwee, Matthew K; Miller, Hilary D; Clark, Bryan W; Van Tiem, Lindsey A; Walcott, Kia C; Erwin, Kyle N; Levin, Edward D

2009-08-01

Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it will be important to predict tipping points that might trigger or accelerate synergistic interactions between climate change and contaminant exposures.

Determining the resilience of carbon dynamics in semi-arid biomes of the Southwestern US to severe drought and altered rainfall patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litvak, M. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Hilton, T. W.; Fox, A. M.; Osuna, J. L.

2011-12-01

Water is critically important for biotic processes in semi-arid ecosystems and 2011 is developing as one of the most severe drought years on record for many parts of the Southwestern US. To quantify the impact of this severe drought on regional carbon and energy balance, we need a more detailed understanding of how water limitation alters ecosystem processes across a range of semi-arid biomes. We quantified the impact of severe drought and changes in both the quantity and distribution of precipitation on ecosystem biotic structure and function across the range of biomes represented in the NM elevation gradient network (desert grassland, creosote shrubland, juniper savanna, piñon-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest and subalpine mixed conifer forest). We compared how daily, seasonal and annual carbon and energy balance and their components in each of these biomes respond to changes in rainfall patterns using continuous measurements of carbon, water and energy exchange and associated measurements in each of these biomes during a 5 year period (2006-2011) that included a severe drought, and large variability in both winter precipitation and the timing and intensity of the monsoon. To understand the underlying mechanisms, we used time series of radiation absorbed by vegetation, surface albedo, soil moisture storage, phenology, gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Re), and WorldView-2 images acquired pre- and post-monsoon in each of these biomes. In all of the biomes except the desert grassland site, the strength and timing of both winter and monsoon precipitation are important controls over carbon and energy dynamics in this region, though we see site-specific sensitivities across the elevation gradient. Over the past 5 years, carbon dynamics in the desert grassland site appears to be decoupled from winter precipitation. In addition, carbon dynamics in disturbed grassland and pinon-juniper ecosystems were more sensitive to severe drought than their undisturbed counterparts. We use the results to extend theory related to the vulnerability of semi-arid ecosystems to climate change and to understand biotic feedbacks within these biomes that may help to maintain resilience against structural and functional change. We also used the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) parameterized for each biome and run in point mode to quantify the implications these changes in rainfall patterns have on ecosystem physiology, and regional carbon balance.

Identification of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation in the US northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Feldstein, Steven B.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-03-01

Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. The tropopause height provides a compact representation of the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity, which is closely related to the overall evolution and intensity of weather systems. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into the overall context of patterns for all days. Six tropopause patterns are identified through KMC for extreme day precipitation: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong moisture transport preceding, and upward motion during, extreme precipitation events.

Connecting differential responses of native and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration.

PubMed

Flanagan, Neal E; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi

2015-04-01

Climate change is predicted to impact river systems in the southeastern United States through alterations of temperature, patterns of precipitation and hydrology. Future climate scenarios for the southeastern United States predict (1) surface water temperatures will warm in concert with air temperature, (2) storm flows will increase and base flows will decrease, and (3) the annual pattern of synchronization between hydroperiod and water temperature will be altered. These alterations are expected to disturb floodplain plant communities, making them more vulnerable to establishment of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate whether native and invasive riparian plant assemblages respond differently to alterations of climate and land use. To study the response of riparian wetlands to watershed and climate alterations, we utilized an existing natural experiment imbedded in gradients of temperature and hydrology-found among dammed and undammed rivers. We evaluated a suite of environmental variables related to water temperature, hydrology, watershed disturbance, and edaphic conditions to identify the strongest predictors of native and invasive species abundances. We found that native species abundance is strongly influenced by climate-driven variables such as temperature and hydrology, while invasive species abundance is more strongly influenced by site-specific factors such as land use and soil nutrient availability. The patterns of synchronization between plant phenology, annual hydrographs, and annual water temperature cycles may be key factors sustaining the viability of native riparian plant communities. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the interactions between climate, land use, and nutrient management in maintaining the species diversity of riparian plant communities. Future climate change is likely to result in diminished competitiveness of native plant species, while the competitiveness of invasive species will increase due to anthropogenic watershed disturbance and accelerated nutrient and sediment export.

Green infrastructure and its catchment-scale effects: an emerging science

PubMed Central

Golden, Heather E.; Hoghooghi, Nahal

2018-01-01

Urbanizing environments alter the hydrological cycle by redirecting stream networks for stormwater and wastewater transmission and increasing impermeable surfaces. These changes thereby accelerate the runoff of water and its constituents following precipitation events, alter evapotranspiration processes, and indirectly modify surface precipitation patterns. Green infrastructure, or low-impact development (LID), can be used as a standalone practice or in concert with gray infrastructure (traditional stormwater management approaches) for cost-efficient, decentralized stormwater management. The growth in LID over the past several decades has resulted in a concomitant increase in research evaluating LID efficiency and effectiveness, but mostly at localized scales. There is a clear research need to quantify how LID practices affect water quantity (i.e., runoff and discharge) and quality at the scale of catchments. In this overview, we present the state of the science of LID research at the local scale, considerations for scaling this research to catchments, recent advances and findings in scaling the effects of LID practices on water quality and quantity at catchment scales, and the use of models as novel tools for these scaling efforts. PMID:29682288

Green infrastructure and its catchment-scale effects: an emerging science.

PubMed

Golden, Heather E; Hoghooghi, Nahal

2018-01-01

Urbanizing environments alter the hydrological cycle by redirecting stream networks for stormwater and wastewater transmission and increasing impermeable surfaces. These changes thereby accelerate the runoff of water and its constituents following precipitation events, alter evapotranspiration processes, and indirectly modify surface precipitation patterns. Green infrastructure, or low-impact development (LID), can be used as a standalone practice or in concert with gray infrastructure (traditional stormwater management approaches) for cost-efficient, decentralized stormwater management. The growth in LID over the past several decades has resulted in a concomitant increase in research evaluating LID efficiency and effectiveness, but mostly at localized scales. There is a clear research need to quantify how LID practices affect water quantity (i.e., runoff and discharge) and quality at the scale of catchments. In this overview, we present the state of the science of LID research at the local scale, considerations for scaling this research to catchments, recent advances and findings in scaling the effects of LID practices on water quality and quantity at catchment scales, and the use of models as novel tools for these scaling efforts.

Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

2017-08-01

Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

Precipitation Indices as a Tool for Climate-Resilient Development in the Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, R. E.; McKinney, D. C.

2016-12-01

The local people living in the mountains of the Ancash Department in Peru have noticed changes in their water supply as climate change has altered precipitation patterns. They are seeking adaptation solutions to help guarantee the reliability of their water supply, but there has been very little analysis of historical data to evaluate and justify these adaptation solutions. In addition, Peru's Ministry of Economy and Finance now requires that climate change be part of the vulnerability assessment for all public investment project proposals, but there are currently no tools or methods of data analysis for including climate change in vulnerability assessments. Compounding the difficulties of considering climate change in the sustainability of development projects is the scarcity of climate data in the region and the difficulty of accessing existing data. To counteract this problem, the Peruvian government recommends using local people's perceptions of change as a proxy for gauged climate data. This work focuses on precipitation data analysis in the mountains of Ancash, Peru. The objectives of this analysis were to determine the accuracy of the local population's perceptions of climate change and to investigate how changes in precipitation patterns might impact public investment projects. The precipitation data analysis was compared to a local study of perceptions of change to determine whether or not these perceptions might be used in lieu of gauged climate data. It appears that people's perceptions of precipitation trends do not accurately reflect the trends observed in the gauged data. The methods of analysis were designed so that the results may be useful for public investment projects with a particular emphasis on agricultural projects. The data were analyzed for trends, seasonal patterns and variability. Dry spells were examined, and the results indicate that droughts during the rainy season have become more frequent and of longer duration. This could have significant impact on agricultural projects. It is likely that the current practice of relying exclusively on wet season rainfall to meet crop water requirements may not be sustainable in the future. Further analysis of climate data is needed to generate a regional climatic characterization that can be used for climate-resilient development projects.

Characterizing the drivers of seedling leaf gas exchange responses to warming and altered precipitation: indirect and direct effects.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas G; Pold, Grace; Goranson, Carol; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic forces are projected to lead to warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns globally. The impact of these climatic changes on the uptake of carbon by the land surface will, in part, determine the rate and magnitude of these changes. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty in how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to climate in the future. Here, we used a fully factorial warming (four levels) by precipitation (three levels) manipulation experiment in an old-field ecosystem in the northeastern USA to examine the impact of climatic changes on leaf carbon exchange in five species of deciduous tree seedlings. We found that photosynthesis generally increased in response to increasing precipitation and decreased in response to warming. Respiration was less sensitive to the treatments. The net result was greater leaf carbon uptake in wetter and cooler conditions across all species. Structural equation modelling revealed the primary pathway through which climate impacted leaf carbon exchange. Net photosynthesis increased with increasing stomatal conductance and photosynthetic enzyme capacity (V cmax ), and decreased with increasing respiration of leaves. Soil moisture and leaf temperature at the time of measurement most heavily influenced these primary drivers of net photosynthesis. Leaf respiration increased with increasing soil moisture, leaf temperature, and photosynthetic supply of substrates. Counter to the soil moisture response, respiration decreased with increasing precipitation amount, indicating that the response to short- (i.e. soil moisture) versus long-term (i.e. precipitation amount) water stress differed, possibly as a result of changes in the relative amounts of growth and maintenance demand for respiration over time. These data (>500 paired measurements of light and dark leaf gas exchange), now publicly available, detail the pathways by which climate can impact leaf gas exchange and could be useful for testing assumptions in land surface models. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Characterizing the drivers of seedling leaf gas exchange responses to warming and altered precipitation: indirect and direct effects

PubMed Central

Smith, Nicholas G.; Pold, Grace; Goranson, Carol; Dukes, Jeffrey S.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic forces are projected to lead to warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns globally. The impact of these climatic changes on the uptake of carbon by the land surface will, in part, determine the rate and magnitude of these changes. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty in how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to climate in the future. Here, we used a fully factorial warming (four levels) by precipitation (three levels) manipulation experiment in an old-field ecosystem in the northeastern USA to examine the impact of climatic changes on leaf carbon exchange in five species of deciduous tree seedlings. We found that photosynthesis generally increased in response to increasing precipitation and decreased in response to warming. Respiration was less sensitive to the treatments. The net result was greater leaf carbon uptake in wetter and cooler conditions across all species. Structural equation modelling revealed the primary pathway through which climate impacted leaf carbon exchange. Net photosynthesis increased with increasing stomatal conductance and photosynthetic enzyme capacity (Vcmax), and decreased with increasing respiration of leaves. Soil moisture and leaf temperature at the time of measurement most heavily influenced these primary drivers of net photosynthesis. Leaf respiration increased with increasing soil moisture, leaf temperature, and photosynthetic supply of substrates. Counter to the soil moisture response, respiration decreased with increasing precipitation amount, indicating that the response to short- (i.e. soil moisture) versus long-term (i.e. precipitation amount) water stress differed, possibly as a result of changes in the relative amounts of growth and maintenance demand for respiration over time. These data (>500 paired measurements of light and dark leaf gas exchange), now publicly available, detail the pathways by which climate can impact leaf gas exchange and could be useful for testing assumptions in land surface models. PMID:27658816

Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation in the US Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, L. A.; Barlow, M. A.

2016-12-01

Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. Tropopause height provides a compact representation of large-scale circulation patterns, as it is linked to mid-level circulation, low-level thermal contrasts and low-level diabatic heating. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into a larger context. Six tropopause patterns are identified on extreme days: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong upward motion during, and moisture transport preceding, extreme precipitation events.

Rocks and Rain: orographic precipitation and the form of mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roe, G. H.; Anders, A. M.; Durran, D. R.; Montgomery, D. R.; Hallet, B.

2005-12-01

In mountainous landscapes patterns of erosion reflect patterns of precipitation that are, in turn, controlled by the orography. Ultimately therefore, the feedbacks between orography and the climate it creates are responsible for the sculpting of mountain ranges. Key questions concerning these interactions are: 1) how robust are patterns of precipitation on geologic time scales? and 2) how do those patterns affect landscape form? Since climate is by definition the statistics of weather, there is tremendous information to be gleaned from how patterns of precipitation vary between different weather events. However up to now sparse measurements and computational limitations have hampered our knowledge of such variations. For the Olympics in Washington State, a characteristic midlatitude mountain range, we report results from a high-resolution, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model and a dense network of precipitation gauges. Down to scales around 10 km, the patterns of precipitation are remarkably robust both storm-by-storm and year-to-year, lending confidence that they are indeed persistent on the relevant time scales. Secondly, the consequences of the coupled interactions are presented using a landscape evolution model coupled with a simple model of orographic precipitation that is able to substantially reproduce the observed precipitation patterns.

In Situ Biomineralization and Particle Deposition Distinctively Mediate Biofilm Susceptibility to Chlorine

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaobao; Chopp, David L.; Russin, William A.; Brannon, Paul T.; Parsek, Matthew R.

2016-01-01

Microbial biofilms and mineral precipitation commonly co-occur in engineered water systems, such as cooling towers and water purification systems, and both decrease process performance. Microbial biofilms are extremely challenging to control and eradicate. We previously showed that in situ biomineralization and the precipitation and deposition of abiotic particles occur simultaneously in biofilms under oversaturated conditions. Both processes could potentially alter the essential properties of biofilms, including susceptibility to biocides. However, the specific interactions between mineral formation and biofilm processes remain poorly understood. Here we show that the susceptibility of biofilms to chlorination depends specifically on internal transport processes mediated by biomineralization and the accumulation of abiotic mineral deposits. Using injections of the fluorescent tracer Cy5, we show that Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilms are more permeable to solutes after in situ calcite biomineralization and are less permeable after the deposition of abiotically precipitated calcite particles. We further show that biofilms are more susceptible to chlorine killing after biomineralization and less susceptible after particle deposition. Based on these observations, we found a strong correlation between enhanced solute transport and chlorine killing in biofilms, indicating that biomineralization and particle deposition regulate biofilm susceptibility by altering biocide penetration into the biofilm. The distinct effects of in situ biomineralization and particle deposition on biocide killing highlight the importance of understanding the mechanisms and patterns of biomineralization and scale formation to achieve successful biofilm control. PMID:26944848

The variability of temperature and precipitation over Korean Peninsula induced by off-equatorial western Pacific precipitation during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Yerim; Ham, Yoo-Geun

2016-04-01

The convection activity and variability are active in Tropic-subtropic area because of equatorial warm pool. The variability's impacts on not only subtropic also mid-latitude. The impact effects on through teleconnection between equatorial and mid-latitude like Pacific-Japan(PJ) pattern. In this paper, two groups are divided based on PJ pattern and JJA Korean precipitation for the analysis that Korean precipitation is affected by PJ pattern. 'PJ+NegKorpr' is indicated when PJ pattern occur that JJA(Jun-July_August) Korean precipitation has negative value. In this case, positive precipitation in subtropic is expanded to central Pacific. And the positive precipitation's pattern is increasing toward north. Because, the subtropical south-eastly wind is forming subtropical precipitation's pattern through cold Kelvin wave is expanding eastward. Cold Kelvin wave is because of Indian negative SST. Also, Korea has negative moisture advection and north-eastly is the role that is moving high-latitude's cold and dry air to Korea. So strong high pressure is formed in Korea. The strong high pressure involves that short wave energy is increasing on surface. As a result, The surface temperature is increased on Korea. But the other case, that 'PJ_Only' case, is indicated when PJ pattern occur and JJA Korean precipitation doesn't have negative value over significant level. The subtropic precipitation's pattern in 'PJ_Only' shows precipitation is confined in western Pacific and expended northward to 25°N near 130°E. And tail of precipitation is toward equatorial(south-eastward). Also, Korean a little positive moisture advection and south-westly is the role that is moving low-latitude's warm and wet air to Korea. So weak high pressure is formed in Korea. The weak high pressure influence amount of short wave energy, so Korean surface temperature is lower. In addition, the case of 'PJ_Only' and Pacific Decal Oscillation(PDO) are occur at the same time has negative impact in Korea temperature through subtropical cyclone and positive PDO. The positive PDO is the role that negative temperature in Korea. So, Korean temperature confined lower by subtropical cyclone and positive PDO. In summary, the relation between PJ pattern and JJA Korean temperature and precipitation depends on subtropical precipitation's pattern. And The subtropical precipitation is effected by Indian SST and PDO's teleconnection.

Biotic Responses of Headwater Streams to Geophysical Alteration and Disturbance Related to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gresswell, R. E.; Sedell, E. R.; Cannon, S.; Hostetler, S. W.; Williams, J. E.; Haak, A. L.; Kershner, J. L.

2009-12-01

Climate change will potentially alter physical habitat availability for trout species (both native and nonnative) in the western USA, and ultimately affect population distribution and abundance in watersheds across the region. To understand the biological consequences of habitat alteration associated with climate change, we have developed models linking contemporary patterns of occurrence and abundance to geomorphic variables (e.g., aspect, elevation, and slope) and stream conditions derived from the habitat (e.g., temperature, discharge, and flood regimes). Because headwater streams may be especially susceptible to catastrophic disturbances in the form of debris flow torrents that have the potential to radically alter the physical structure of channels and sometimes extirpate local fish populations, we are focusing fine-scale spatial analyses in the high elevation systems. Risks of such disturbances increase exponentially in landscapes that have experienced recent wildfires when high-intensity precipitation or runoff events occur. Although predicting the timing, extent, and severity of future wildfires or subsequent precipitation and runoff events is difficult, it is possible to identify channels within stream networks that may be prone to debris flows. These channels can be identified using models based on characteristic storm and burn scenarios and geographic information describing topographic, soil, and vegetation characteristics. At-risk channels are being mapped throughout the stream networks within the study areas in the headwaters of the Colorado River to provide information about the potential for catastrophic population disturbance in response to variety of wildfire and post-wildfire storm scenarios.

Spatial pulses of water inputs in deciduous and hemlock forest stands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guswa, A. J.; Mussehl, M.; Pecht, A.; Spence, C.

2010-12-01

Trees intercept and redistribute precipitation in time and space. While spatial patterns of throughfall are challenging to link to plant and canopy characteristics, many studies have shown that the spatial patterns persist through time. This persistence leads to wet and dry spots under the trees, creating spatial pulses of moisture that can affect infiltration, transpiration, and biogeochemical processes. In the northeast, the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid poses a significant threat to eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), and replacement of hemlock forests by other species, such as birch, maple, and oak, has the potential to alter throughfall patterns and hydrologic processes. During the summers of 2009 and 2010, we measured throughfall in both hemlock and deciduous plots to assess its spatial distribution and temporal persistence. From 3 June to 25 July 2009, we measured throughfall in one hemlock and one deciduous plot over fourteen events with rainfall totaling 311 mm. From 8 June through 28 July 2010, we measured throughfall in the same two plots plus an additional hemlock stand and a young black birch stand, and rainfall totaled 148 mm over eight events. Averaged over space and time, throughfall was 81% of open precipitation in the hemlock stands, 88% in the mixed deciduous stand, and 100% in the young black birch stand. On an event basis, spatial coefficients of variation are similar among the stands and range from 11% to 49% for rain events greater than 5 mm. With the exception of very light events, coefficients of variation are insensitive to precipitation amount. Spatial patterns of throughfall persist through time, and seasonal coefficients of variation range from 13% to 33%. All stands indicate localized concentrations of water inputs, and there were individual collectors in the deciduous stands that regularly received more than twice the stand-average throughfall.

Evaluation of TRMM 3B42V7 product on extreme precipitation measurements over peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paska, Jacquoelyne; Lau, Alvin M. S.; Tan, Mou Leong; Tan, Kok Chooi

2017-10-01

Climate variability has become a matter worth our attention as this issue has unveiled to the extreme water-related disasters such as flood and drought. Increments in heavy precipitation have happened over the past century and future climate scenarios show that it may alter the recurrence, timing, force, and length of these occasions. Satellite precipitation products (SPPs) could be used as representation of precipitation over a large region. This could be useful for the monitoring of the precipitation pattern as well as extreme events. Nevertheless, application of these products in monitoring extreme precipitation is still limited because insufficiency of quality assessment. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42V7 product in capturing the behavior of extreme precipitation events over Peninsular Malaysia from 2000 to 2015. Four extreme precipitation indices, in two general categories of absolute threshold (R10mm, R20mm and R50mm) and maximum (Rx1d) indices that recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were used. General evaluation has shown that the TRMM 3B42V7 product performed good on the measurements of monthly and annual precipitation. In the respect of extreme precipitation measurements, weak to moderate positive correlations were found between the TRMM 3B42 product and rain gauges over Peninsular Malaysia. The TRMM 3B42V7 product overestimated the R10mm and R20mm indices, while an underestimation was found for the R50mm and Rx1d indices.

Long-Term Precipitation Isotope Ratios (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) in the Northeast US Reflect Atlantic Ocean Warming and Shifts in Moisture Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puntsag, T.; Welker, J. M.; Mitchell, M. J.; Klein, E. S.; Campbell, J. L.; Likens, G.

2014-12-01

The global water cycle is exhibiting dramatic changes as global temperatures increase resulting in increases in: drought extremes, flooding, alterations in storm track patterns with protracted winter storms, and greater precipitation variability. The mechanisms driving these changes can be difficult to assess, but the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) provide a means to help understand these water cycle changes. However, extended temporal records of isotope ratios in precipitation are infrequent, especially in the US. In our study we analyzed precipitation isotope ratio data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire that has the longest US precipitation isotope record, to determine: 1) the monthly composited averages and trends from 1967 to 2012 (45 years); ; 2) the relationships between abiotic properties such as local temperatures, precipitation type, storm tracks and isotope ratio changes; and 3) the influence of regional shifts in moisture sources and/or changes in N Atlantic Ocean water conditions on isotope values. The seasonal variability of Hubbard Brook precipitation isotope ratios is consistent with other studies, as average δ18O values are ~ -15‰ in January and ~ -5 ‰ in July. However, over the 45 year record there is a depletion trend in the δ 18O values (becoming isotopically lighter with a greater proportion of 16O), which coupled with less change in δ 2H leads to increases in d-excess values from ~ -10‰ around 1970 to greater than 10‰ in 2009. These changes occurred during a period of warming as opposed to cooling local temperatures indicating other processes besides temperature are controlling long-term water isotope traits in this region. We have evidence that these changes in precipitation isotope traits are controlled in large part by an increases in moisture being sourced from a warming N Atlantic Ocean that is providing evaporated, isotopically-depleted precipitation to the region. Thus, the warming of the N Atlantic Ocean appears to influence the climate and the precipitation isotopes of Northeastern coastal regions and could be a larger water source to watersheds in this North American region.

Transient bedrock channel evolution across a precipitation gradient: A case study from Kohala, Hawaii.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasparini, N. M.; Han, J.; Johnson, J. P.; Menking, J. A.

2011-12-01

This study uses observations from the Kohala Peninsula, on the Big Island of Hawaii, and numerical modeling, to explore how precipitation gradients may affect fluvial bedrock incision and channel morphology. Orographic precipitation patterns result in over 4 m/yr of rainfall on the wet side of the peninsula and less than 0.5 m/yr on the dry side. These precipitation patterns likely strongly contribute to the observed channel morphology. Further, the region is subsiding, leading to prolonged transient channel evolution. We explore changes in a number of channel morphologic parameters with watershed averaged precipitation rate. We use PRISM precipitation data and data from isohyets developed from historic rain gauge data. Not surprisingly, valley depth, measured from a 10 meter DEM, increases with spatially averaged precipitation rate. We also find that channel profile form varies with precipitation rate, with drier channels exhibiting a straight to slightly concave channel form and wetter channels exhibiting a convex to concave channel form. The precipitation value at which this transition in channel profile form occurs depends on the precipitation data-set used, highlighting the need for more accurate measurements of precipitation in settings with extreme precipitation patterns similar to our study area. The downstream pattern in precipitation is likely significant in the development of the convex-concave profile form. Numerical modeling results support that precipitation patterns such as those observed on the wet-side of the Kohala Peninsula may contribute to the convex-concave profile form. However, we emphasize that while precipitation patterns may contribute to the channel form, these channel features are transient and not expected to be sustained in steady-state landscapes. We also emphasize that it is fluvial discharge, as driven by precipitation, rather than precipitation alone, that drives the processes shaping the channel form. Because fluvial discharge is integrative, relatively extreme precipitation gradients are required to produce anomalous channel profile forms.

Applications for predicting precipitation and vegetation patterns at landscape scale using lightning strike data

Treesearch

Deborah Ulinski Potter

1999-01-01

Previous publications discussed the results of my dissertation research on relationships between seasonality in precipitation and vegetation patterns at landscape scale. Summer precipitation at a study site in the Zuni Mountains, NM, was predicted from lightning strike and relative humidity data using multiple regression. Summer precipitation patterns were mapped using...

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Colby, Frank; Binder, Hanin; Catto, Jennifer L.; Hoell, Andrew; Cohen, Judah

2018-05-01

Previous work has identified six large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) of dynamic tropopause height associated with extreme precipitation over the Northeast US, with extreme precipitation defined as the top 1% of daily station precipitation. Here, we examine the three-dimensional structure of the tropopause LSMPs in terms of circulation and factors relevant to precipitation, including moisture, stability, and synoptic mechanisms associated with lifting. Within each pattern, the link between the different factors and extreme precipitation is further investigated by comparing the relative strength of the factors between days with and without the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The six tropopause LSMPs include two ridge patterns, two eastern US troughs, and two troughs centered over the Ohio Valley, with a strong seasonality associated with each pattern. Extreme precipitation in the ridge patterns is associated with both convective mechanisms (instability combined with moisture transport from the Great Lakes and Western Atlantic) and synoptic forcing related to Great Lakes storm tracks and embedded shortwaves. Extreme precipitation associated with eastern US troughs involves intense southerly moisture transport and strong quasi-geostrophic forcing of vertical velocity. Ohio Valley troughs are associated with warm fronts and intense warm conveyor belts that deliver large amounts of moisture ahead of storms, but little direct quasi-geostrophic forcing. Factors that show the largest difference between days with and without extreme precipitation include integrated moisture transport, low-level moisture convergence, warm conveyor belts, and quasi-geostrophic forcing, with the relative importance varying between patterns.

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is hypothesized that: 1) long-term future hydrology and water quality in surface and subsurface drainage areas will be influenced by LULC and climate change, and 2) this approach will be useful to identify specific areas contributing the most pollutants to aquifers due to LULC and climate change.

Surface-Atmosphere Moisture Interactions in the Frozen Ground Regions of Eurasia.

PubMed

Ford, Trent W; Frauenfeld, Oliver W

2016-01-18

Climate models simulate an intensifying Arctic hydrologic cycle in response to climatic warming, however the role of surface-atmosphere interactions from degrading frozen ground is unclear in these projections. Using Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data in high-latitude Eurasia, we examine long-term variability in surface-atmosphere coupling as represented by the statistical relationship between surface evaporative fraction (EF) and afternoon precipitation. Changes in EF, precipitation, and their statistical association are then related to underlying permafrost type and snow cover. Results indicate significant positive trends in July EF in the Central Siberian Plateau, corresponding to significant increases in afternoon precipitation. The positive trends are only significant over continuous permafrost, with non-significant or negative EF and precipitation trends over isolated, sporadic, and discontinuous permafrost areas. Concurrently, increasing EF and subsequent precipitation are found to coincide with significant trends in May and June snowmelt, which potentially provides the moisture source for the observed enhanced latent heating and moisture recycling in the region. As climate change causes continuous permafrost to transition to discontinuous, discontinuous to sporadic, sporadic to isolated, and isolated permafrost disappears, this will also alter patterns of atmospheric convection, moisture recycling, and hence the hydrologic cycle in high-latitude land areas.

Ecohydrological responses of a model semiarid system to precipitation pulses after a global change type dry-down depend on growth-form, event size, and time since establishment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Minor, R. L.; Braun, Z.; Potts, D. L.

2012-12-01

Woody encroachment into grasslands alters ecosystem structure and function both above- and belowground. Aboveground, woody plant canopies increase leaf area index and alter patterns of interception, infiltration and runoff. Belowground, woody plants alter root distribution and increase maximum rooting depth with the effect of accessing deeper pools of soil moisture and shifting the timing and duration of evapotranspiration. In turn, these woody plants mediate hydrological changes that influence patterns of ecosystem CO2 exchange and productivity. Given projections of more variable precipitation and increased temperatures for many semiarid regions, differences in physiological performance are likely to drive changes in ecosystem-scale carbon and water flux depending on the degree of woody cover. Ultimately, as soil moisture declines with decreased precipitation, differential patterns of environmental sensitivity among growth-forms and their dependence on groundwater will only become more important in determining ecosystem resilience to future change. Here, we created a series of 1-meter deep mesocosms that housed either a woody mesquite shrub, a bunchgrass, or was left as bare soil. Five replicates of each were maintained under current ambient air temperatures, and five replicates were maintained under projected (+4oC) air temperatures. Each mesocosm was outfitted with an array of soil moisture, temperature, water potential, and CO2 exchange concentration sensors at the near-surface, 30, 55, and 80cm depths to quantify patterns of soil moisture and respiratory CO2 exchange efflux in response to rainfall events of varying magnitude and intervening dry periods of varying duration. In addition, we used minirhizotrons to quantify the response of roots to episodic rainfall. During the first year, bunchgrasses photosynthetically outperformed mesquite saplings across a wider range of temperatures under dry conditions, regardless of growth temperature (ambient or +4oC). Both growth forms were similarly responsive to episodic rainfall, regardless of event magnitude, though mesquite were able to maintain photosynthetic function for a longer period in response to each rain. However, in the second year of the experiment a new pattern of response to moisture and high temperature stress emerged. Under dry conditions, mesquite sustained high photosynthetic rates across a wider range of atmospheric temperatures and were less responsive to rainfall, regardless of event magnitude. In contrast, the limiting effect of high temperatures on bunchgrass photosynthesis was soil moisture dependent. In this case, the effects of high temperature limitation were exaggerated under dry conditions and relaxed when soil moisture was more abundant. Together, these trends yielded a significantly greater photosynthetic assimilation by deeper-rooted mesquite shrubs than shallow-rooted bunchgrasses under both temperature regimes. Combining these aboveground measurements of carbon uptake with belowground estimates of carbon efflux will allow us to make much more informed projections of net carbon balance within mixed vegetation shrublands across a range of global climate change projections.

Hydrothermal alteration of deep fractured granite: Effects of dissolution and precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimoto, Shoji; Yoshida, Hidekazu

2010-03-01

This paper investigates the mineralogical effects of hydrothermal alteration at depth in fractures in granite. A fracture accompanied by an alteration halo and filled with clay was found at a depth of 200 m in a drill core through Toki granite, Gifu, central Japan. Microscopic observation, XRD, XRF, EPMA and SXAM investigations revealed that the microcrystalline clays consist of illite, quartz and pyrite and that the halo round the fracture can be subdivided into a phyllic zone adjacent to the fracture, surrounded by a propylitic zone in which Fe-phyllosilicates are present, and a distinctive outer alteration front characterized by plagioclase breakdown. The processes that result in these changes took place in three successive stages: 1) partial dissolution of plagioclase with partial chloritization of biotite; 2) biotite dissolution and precipitation of Fe-phyllosilicate in the dissolution pores; 3) dissolution of K-feldspar and Fe-phyllosilicate, and illite precipitation associated with development of microcracks. These hydrothermal alterations of the granite proceed mainly by a dissolution-precipitation process resulting from the infiltration of hydrothermal fluid along microcracks. Such infiltration causes locally high mobility of Al and increases the ratio of fluid to rock in the alteration halo. These results contribute to an understanding of how granitic rock becomes altered in orogenic fields such as the Japanese island arc.

Effects of Short-Term Warming and Altered Precipitation on Soil Microbial Communities in Alpine Grassland of the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kaoping; Shi, Yu; Jing, Xin; He, Jin-Sheng; Sun, Ruibo; Yang, Yunfeng; Shade, Ashley; Chu, Haiyan

2016-01-01

Soil microbial communities are influenced by climate change drivers such as warming and altered precipitation. These changes create abiotic stresses, including desiccation and nutrient limitation, which act on microbes. However, our understanding of the responses of microbial communities to co-occurring climate change drivers is limited. We surveyed soil bacterial and fungal diversity and composition after a 1-year warming and altered precipitation manipulation in the Tibetan plateau alpine grassland. In isolation, warming and decreased precipitation treatments each had no significant effects on soil bacterial community structure; however, in combination of both treatments altered bacterial community structure (p = 0.03). The main effect of altered precipitation specifically impacted the relative abundances of Bacteroidetes and Gammaproteobacteria compared to the control, while the main effect of warming impacted the relative abundance of Betaproteobacteria. In contrast, the fungal community had no significant response to the treatments after 1-year. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we found bacterial community composition was positively related to soil moisture. Our results indicate that short-term climate change could cause changes in soil bacterial community through taxonomic shifts. Our work provides new insights into immediate soil microbial responses to short-term stressors acting on an ecosystem that is particularly sensitive to global climate change. PMID:27446064

Effects of Short-Term Warming and Altered Precipitation on Soil Microbial Communities in Alpine Grassland of the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Zhang, Kaoping; Shi, Yu; Jing, Xin; He, Jin-Sheng; Sun, Ruibo; Yang, Yunfeng; Shade, Ashley; Chu, Haiyan

2016-01-01

Soil microbial communities are influenced by climate change drivers such as warming and altered precipitation. These changes create abiotic stresses, including desiccation and nutrient limitation, which act on microbes. However, our understanding of the responses of microbial communities to co-occurring climate change drivers is limited. We surveyed soil bacterial and fungal diversity and composition after a 1-year warming and altered precipitation manipulation in the Tibetan plateau alpine grassland. In isolation, warming and decreased precipitation treatments each had no significant effects on soil bacterial community structure; however, in combination of both treatments altered bacterial community structure (p = 0.03). The main effect of altered precipitation specifically impacted the relative abundances of Bacteroidetes and Gammaproteobacteria compared to the control, while the main effect of warming impacted the relative abundance of Betaproteobacteria. In contrast, the fungal community had no significant response to the treatments after 1-year. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we found bacterial community composition was positively related to soil moisture. Our results indicate that short-term climate change could cause changes in soil bacterial community through taxonomic shifts. Our work provides new insights into immediate soil microbial responses to short-term stressors acting on an ecosystem that is particularly sensitive to global climate change.

Analytic implementation of the GRAAL model: Application to a R7T7-type glass package in a geological disposal environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minet, Y.; Bonin, B.; Gin, S.; Frugier, P.

2010-09-01

The Glass Reactivity with Allowance for the Alteration Layer Model (GRAAL) was proposed in 2008 to describe borosilicate nuclear glass alteration based on coupling an affinity law with the formation and dissolution of a passivating reactive interface. It is examined here in a simplified form in which only the affinity with respect to silicon is taken into account with a concentration at saturation Csat, and the precipitation of neoformed phases is described by an affine relation for silicon above a precipitation threshold Csat'. This simplified "analytical GRAAL" model is capable of predicting the quantities of altered glass and the silicon and boron concentration variations in analytical or semi-analytical form, and thereby identify the main characteristic quantities of the system. The model was tested against a series of laboratory experiments lasting from a few days to a few years; its sensitivity to the parameter values was examined, and the model was validated with respect to SON68 glass alteration in initially pure water. It was then applied to the alteration of a glass package in a repository over periods of up to a million years, by means of exploratory calculations comprising a sensitivity study of the internal model parameters and extrapolation to the temperatures expected in a geological repository in order to identify the parameters and mechanisms having the greatest impact on the residual alteration rate. Alteration is controlled by the precipitation of neoformed phases in every case. The transient conditions are of very limited duration with respect to either silicon or boron (no more than a 100 years, with less than 0.01% alteration of the package). In the precipitation law used in the model, the residual alteration rate and total package lifetime are determined primarily by two parameters: k' (the precipitation kinetics) and σ' (the precipitate surface area per unit volume in the geological barrier). The package lifetime is about 3 × 10 5 years at 30 °C assuming a reasonable value for σ' (10 6 m -1), and would be increased by a factor 3-6 if precipitation in the barrier were disregarded. This cursory description of precipitation will be validated and refined through specific laboratory tests at 50 °C and lower temperatures, coordinated with the development of the "geochemical GRAAL" model and with integral tests in contact with clay and canister corrosion products.

Bridging the Divide: Linking Genomics to Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Melinda D.

2014-03-15

Over the project period, we have addressed the following objectives: 1) assess the effects of altered precipitation patterns (i.e., increased variability in growing season precipitation) on genetic diversity of the dominant C4 grass species, Andropogon gerardii, and 2) experimentally assess the impacts of extreme climatic events (heat wave, drought) on responses of the dominant C4 grasses, A. gerardii and Sorghastrum nutans, and the consequences of these response for community and ecosystem structure and function. Below is a summary of how we have addressed these objectives. Objective 1 After ten years of altered precipitation, we found the number of genotypes ofmore » A. gerardii was significantly reduced compared to the ambient precipitation treatments (Avolio et al., 2013a). Although genotype number was reduced, the remaining genotypes were less related to one another indicating that the altered precipitation treatment was selecting for increasingly dissimilar genomes (based on mean pairwise Dice distance among individuals). For the four key genotypes that displayed differential abundances depending on the precipitation treatment (G1, G4, and G11 in the altered plots and G2 in the ambient plots), we identified phenotypic differences in the field that could account for ecological sorting (Avolio & Smith, 2013a). The three altered rainfall genotypes also have very different phenotypic traits in the greenhouse in response to different soil moisture availabilities (Avolio and Smith, 2013c). Two of the genotypes that increased in abundance in the altered precipitation plots had greater allocation to root biomass (G4 and G11), while G1 allocated more biomass aboveground. These phenotypic differences among genotypes suggests that changes in genotypic structure between the altered and the ambient treatments has likely occurred via niche differentiation, driven by changes in soil moisture dynamics (reduced mean, increased variability and changes in the depth distribution of soil moisture) under a more variable precipitation regime, rather than reduced population numbers (A. gerardii tiller densities did not differ between altered and ambient treatments; p = 0.505) or a priori differences in genotype richness (Avolio et al.2013a). This ecological sorting of genotypes, which accounts for 40% of all sampled individuals in the altered plots, is an important legacy of the press chronic climate changes in the RaMPs experiment. Objective 2 In May 2010, we established the Climate Extremes Experiment at the Konza Prairie Biological Station. For the experiment, a gradient of temperatures, ranging from ambient to extreme, were imposed in 2010 and 2011 as a mid-season heat wave under well-watered or severe drought conditions. This study allowed us for the first time to examine species-specific thresholds of responses to climate extremes and assess how these phenotypic responses may impact selection of particular genotypes, with the ultimate goal of linking alterations in individual performance and genetic diversity to ecosystem structure and functioning. We found that tallgrass prairie was resistant to heat waves, but it was not resistant to extreme drought, which reduced aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) below the lowest level measured in this grassland in almost thirty years (Hoover et al. in press(a)). This extreme reduction in ecosystem function was a consequence of reduced productivity of both C4 grasses and C3 forbs. This reduction in biomass of the C4 grasses (Andropogon gerardii and Sorghastrum nutans) was, in part, due to significant reductions in photosynthesis, leaf water potential and productivity with drought in the dominant grasses species, with S. nutans was more sensitive than A. gerardii to drought (Hoover et al. in press(b)). However, the dominant forb was negatively impacted by the drought more than the dominant grasses, and this led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Although this change in community composition persisted post-drought, ANPP recovered completely the year after drought due to rapid demographic responses by the dominant grass, compensating for loss of the dominant forb. Overall, our results show that an extreme reduction in ecosystem function attributable to a climate extreme (e.g., low resistance) does not preclude rapid ecosystem recovery. Given that dominance by a few species is characteristic of most ecosystems, knowledge of the traits of these species and their responses to climate extremes will be key for predicting future ecosystem dynamics and function. In addition, our research suggests that water stress will dominate photosynthetic and productivity responses caused by discrete drought and heat wave events, rather than direct or additive effects of heat stress, with differential sensitivity in these grasses altering future ecosystem function.« less

Application of a pore-scale reactive transport model to a natural analog for reaction-induced pore alterations

DOE PAGES

Yoon, Hongkyu; Major, Jonathan; Dewers, Thomas; ...

2017-01-05

Dissolved CO 2 in the subsurface resulting from geological CO 2 storage may react with minerals in fractured rocks, confined aquifers, or faults, resulting in mineral precipitation and dissolution. The overall rate of reaction can be affected by coupled processes including hydrodynamics, transport, and reactions at the (sub) pore-scale. In this work pore-scale modeling of coupled fluid flow, reactive transport, and heterogeneous reactions at the mineral surface is applied to account for permeability alterations caused by precipitation-induced pore-blocking. This paper is motivated by observations of CO 2 seeps from a natural CO 2 sequestration analog, Crystal Geyser, Utah. Observations alongmore » the surface exposure of the Little Grand Wash fault indicate the lateral migration of CO 2 seep sites (i.e., alteration zones) of 10–50 m width with spacing on the order of ~100 m over time. Sandstone permeability in alteration zones is reduced by 3–4 orders of magnitude by carbonate cementation compared to unaltered zones. One granular porous medium and one fracture network systems are used to conceptually represent permeable porous media and locations of conduits controlled by fault-segment intersections and/or topography, respectively. Simulation cases accounted for a range of reaction regimes characterized by the Damköhler (Da) and Peclet (Pe) numbers. Pore-scale simulation results demonstrate that combinations of transport (Pe), geochemical conditions (Da), solution chemistry, and pore and fracture configurations contributed to match key patterns observed in the field of how calcite precipitation alters flow paths by pore plugging. This comparison of simulation results with field observations reveals mechanistic explanations of the lateral migration and enhances our understanding of subsurface processes associated with the CO 2 injection. In addition, permeability and porosity relations are constructed from pore-scale simulations which account for a range of reaction regimes characterized by the Da and Pe numbers. Finally, the functional relationships obtained from pore-scale simulations can be used in a continuum scale model that may account for large-scale phenomena mimicking lateral migration of surface CO 2 seeps.« less

Impact of deforestation on local precipitation patterns over the Da River basin, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Spartà, Daniele; Castelletti, Andrea; Boschetti, Mirco

2014-05-01

Change in land cover, e.g. from forest to bare soil, might severely impact the hydrological cycle at the river basin scale by altering the balance between rainfall and evaporation, ultimately affecting streamflow dynamics. These changes generally occur over decades, but they might be much more rapid in developing countries, where economic growth and growing population may cause abrupt changes in landscape and ecosystem. Detecting, analysing and modelling these changes is an essential step to design mitigation strategies and adaptation plans, balancing economic development and ecosystem protection. In this work we investigate the impact of land cover changes on the water cycle in the Da River basin, Vietnam. More precisely, the objective is to evaluate the interlink between deforestation and precipitation. The case study is particularly interesting because Vietnam is one of the world fastest growing economies and natural resources have been considerably exploited to support after-war development. Vietnam has the second highest rate of deforestation of primary forests in the world, second to only Nigeria (FAO 2005), with associated problems like abrupt change in run-off, erosion, sediment transport and flash floods. We performed land cover evaluation by combining literature information and Remote Sensing techniques, using Landsat images. We then analysed time series of precipitation observed on the period 1960-2011 in several stations located in the catchment area. We used multiple trend detection techniques, both state-of-the-art (e.g., Linear regression and Mann-Kendall) and novel trend detection techniques (Moving Average on Shifting Horizon), to investigate trends in seasonal pattern of precipitation. Results suggest that deforestation may induce a negative trend in the precipitation volume. The effect is mainly recognizable at the beginning and at the end of the monsoon season, when the local mechanisms of precipitation formation prevail over the large scale ones.

On an energy-latitude dispersion pattern of ion precipitation potentially associated with magnetospheric EMIC waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Jun; Donovan, E.; Ni, B.; Yue, C.; Jiang, F.; Angelopoulos, V.

2014-10-01

Ion precipitation mechanisms are usually energy dependent and contingent upon magnetospheric/ionospheric locations. Therefore, the pattern of energy-latitude dependence of ion precipitation boundaries seen by low Earth orbit satellites can be implicative of the mechanism(s) underlying the precipitation. The pitch angle scattering of ions led by the field line curvature, a well-recognized mechanism of ion precipitation in the central plasma sheet (CPS), leads to one common pattern of energy-latitude dispersion, in that the ion precipitation flux diminishes at higher (lower) latitudes for protons with lower (higher) energies. In this study, we introduce one other systematically existing pattern of energy-latitude dispersion of ion precipitation, in that the lower energy ion precipitation extends to lower latitude than the higher-energy ion precipitation. Via investigating such a "reversed" energy-latitude dispersion pattern, we explore possible mechanisms of ion precipitation other than the field line curvature scattering. We demonstrate via theories and simulations that the H-band electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave is capable of preferentially scattering keV protons in the CPS and potentially leads to the reversed energy-latitude dispersion of proton precipitation. We then present detailed event analyses and provide support to a linkage between the EMIC waves in the equatorial CPS and ion precipitation events with reversed energy-latitude dispersion. We also discuss the role of ion acceleration in the topside ionosphere which, together with the CPS ion population, may result in a variety of energy-latitude distributions of the overall ion precipitation.

Application of hierarchical clustering method to classify of space-time rainfall patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chang, Tu-Je

2010-05-01

Understanding the local precipitation patterns is essential to the water resources management and flooding mitigation. The precipitation patterns can vary in space and time depending upon the factors from different spatial scales such as local topological changes and macroscopic atmospheric circulation. The spatiotemporal variation of precipitation in Taiwan is significant due to its complex terrain and its location at west pacific and subtropical area, where is the boundary between the pacific ocean and Asia continent with the complex interactions among the climatic processes. This study characterizes local-scale precipitation patterns by classifying the historical space-time precipitation records. We applied the hierarchical ascending clustering method to analyze the precipitation records from 1960 to 2008 at the six rainfall stations located in Lan-yang catchment at the northeast of the island. Our results identify the four primary space-time precipitation types which may result from distinct driving forces from the changes of atmospheric variables and topology at different space-time scales. This study also presents an important application of the statistical downscaling to combine large-scale upper-air circulation with local space-time precipitation patterns.

Cloud-Aerosol Interaction and Its Impact on the Onset of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K.-M.; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee

2004-01-01

Effect of aerosols from biomass burning on the early development of East Asian monsoon is investigated using various satellites and in situ observations including TOMS Aerosol Index (AI). GPCP precipitation, ISCCP cloud cover, and GISS surface air temperature. Based on TRMM fire produce and mean winds fields at 85Omb. we identified the source and interaction regions of aerosols and investigated aerosol-cloud-precipitation characteristics in those regions. During March-April, northern Thailand, Myanmar. and Laos are major source of smoke from the combustion of agricultural waste. Excessive smoke. represented by high AI, is observed especially during dry and cloud-free year. On the other hand. there is no ground source of smoke in the interaction region. The most of aerosols in this area are believed to be transported from the source region. AI is appeared to be correlated with more clouds and less precipitation in interaction region. It suggests that the aerosol-cloud interaction can alter the distribution of cloud and the characteristics of regional hydrology. Aerosol-induced changes in atmospheric stability and associated circulation turns out to be very important to pre-monsoon rainfall pattern in southern China. Prolonged biomass burning is especially effective in changing rainfall pattern during April and May. Results suggest that excessive aerosol transported from source region may intensify pre-monsoon rain band over central China in May and lead to early monsoon onset.

Geophysical methods for monitoring soil stabilization processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saneiyan, Sina; Ntarlagiannis, Dimitrios; Werkema, D. Dale; Ustra, Andréa

2018-01-01

Soil stabilization involves methods used to turn unconsolidated and unstable soil into a stiffer, consolidated medium that could support engineered structures, alter permeability, change subsurface flow, or immobilize contamination through mineral precipitation. Among the variety of available methods carbonate precipitation is a very promising one, especially when it is being induced through common soil borne microbes (MICP - microbial induced carbonate precipitation). Such microbial mediated precipitation has the added benefit of not harming the environment as other methods can be environmentally detrimental. Carbonate precipitation, typically in the form of calcite, is a naturally occurring process that can be manipulated to deliver the expected soil strengthening results or permeability changes. This study investigates the ability of spectral induced polarization and shear-wave velocity for monitoring calcite driven soil strengthening processes. The results support the use of these geophysical methods as soil strengthening characterization and long term monitoring tools, which is a requirement for viable soil stabilization projects. Both tested methods are sensitive to calcite precipitation, with SIP offering additional information related to long term stability of precipitated carbonate. Carbonate precipitation has been confirmed with direct methods, such as direct sampling and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). This study advances our understanding of soil strengthening processes and permeability alterations, and is a crucial step for the use of geophysical methods as monitoring tools in microbial induced soil alterations through carbonate precipitation.

Characterization of retrieved orthodontic miniscrew implants.

PubMed

Eliades, Theodore; Zinelis, Spiros; Papadopoulos, Moschos A; Eliades, George

2009-01-01

The purposes of this study were to characterize the morphologic, structural, and compositional alterations and to assess any hardness changes in used orthodontic miniscrew implants. Eleven miniscrew implants (Aarhus Anchorage System, Medicon eG, Tuttlingen, Germany) placed in 5 patients were retrieved after successful service of 3.5 to 17.5 months; none showed signs of mobility or failure. These implants, and brand-, type-, and size-matched specimens as controls, were subjected to multi-technique characterization. Optical microscopy indicated loss of gloss with variable discoloration. Scanning electron microscopy and x-ray microanalysis showed morphologic alteration of the miniscrew implant surfaces with integuments formed on the surface. The materials precipitated on the surfaces were sodium, potassium, chlorine, iron, calcium, and phosphorus from the contact of the implant with biologic fluids such as blood and exudates, forming sodium chloride, potassium chloride, and calcium-phosphorus precipitates. The composition of the implant was similar to that of a titanium alloy. X-ray microtomography analysis showed no bulk structure alterations. Vickers microhardness testing showed no increased bulk or surface hardness of the retrieved specimens compared with the controls, excluding the possibility of strain-hardening phenomena as a result of self-tapping and self-drilling placement and related loading conditions. Used titanium-alloy miniscrew implants have morphologic and surface structural alterations including adsorption of an integument that is calcified as a result of contact of the implants with biologic fluids. Randomly organized osseointegration islets on these smooth titanium-alloy miniscrew surfaces might be enhanced by the extended period of retention in alveolar bone in spite of the smooth surface and immediate loading pattern of these implants.

Altered precipitation regime affects the function and composition of soil microbial communities on multiple time scales.

PubMed

Zeglin, L H; Bottomley, P J; Jumpponen, A; Rice, C W; Arango, M; Lindsley, A; McGowan, A; Mfombep, P; Myrold, D D

2013-10-01

Climate change models predict that future precipitation patterns will entail lower-frequency but larger rainfall events, increasing the duration of dry soil conditions. Resulting shifts in microbial C cycling activity could affect soil C storage. Further, microbial response to rainfall events may be constrained by the physiological or nutrient limitation stress of extended drought periods; thus seasonal or multiannual precipitation regimes may influence microbial activity following soil wet-up. We quantified rainfall-driven dynamics of microbial processes that affect soil C loss and retention, and microbial community composition, in soils from a long-term (14-year) field experiment contrasting "Ambient" and "Altered" (extended intervals between rainfalls) precipitation regimes. We collected soil before, the day following, and five days following 2.5-cm rainfall events during both moist and dry periods (June and September 2011; soil water potential = -0.01 and -0.83 MPa, respectively), and measured microbial respiration, microbial biomass, organic matter decomposition potential (extracellular enzyme activities), and microbial community composition (phospholipid fatty acids). The equivalent rainfall events caused equivalent microbial respiration responses in both treatments. In contrast, microbial biomass was higher and increased after rainfall in the Altered treatment soils only, thus microbial C use efficiency (CUE) was higher in Altered than Ambient treatments (0.70 +/- 0.03 > 0.46 +/- 0.10). CUE was also higher in dry (September) soils. C-acquiring enzyme activities (beta-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, and phenol oxidase) increased after rainfall in moist (June), but not dry (September) soils. Both microbial biomass C:N ratios and fungal:bacterial ratios were higher at lower soil water contents, suggesting a functional and/or population-level shift in the microbiota at low soil water contents, and microbial community composition also differed following wet-up and between seasons and treatments. Overall, microbial activity may directly (C respiration) and indirectly (enzyme potential) reduce soil organic matter pools less in drier soils, and soil C sequestration potential (CUE) may be higher in soils with a history of extended dry periods between rainfall events. The implications include that soil C loss may be reduced or compensated for via different mechanisms at varying time scales, and that microbial taxa with better stress tolerance or growth efficiency may be associated with these functional shifts.

Relating isotopic composition of precipitation to atmospheric patterns and local moisture recycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, K. E.; Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2016-12-01

Local land management practices such as irrigation significantly alter surface evapotranspiration (ET), regional boundary layer development, and potentially modify precipitation likelihood and amount. How strong this local forcing is in comparison to synoptic-scale dynamics, and how much ET is recycled locally as precipitation are areas of great uncertainty and are especially important when trying to forecast the impact of local land management strategies on drought mitigation. Stable isotope analysis has long been a useful tool for tracing movement throughout the water cycle. In this study, reanalysis data and stable isotope samples of precipitation events are used to estimate the contribution of local moisture recycling to precipitation at the Konza Prairie LTER - located in the Great Plains, downwind of intensive agricultural areas. From 2001 to 2014 samples of all precipitation events over 5mm were collected and 18O and D isotopes measured. Comparison of observed precipitation totals and MERRA and ERA-interim reanalysis totals is used to diagnose periods of strong local moisture contribution (especially from irrigation) to precipitation. Large discrepancies in precipitation between observation and reanalysis, particularly MERRA, tend to follow dry periods during the growing season, presumably because while ERA-Interim adjusts soil moisture using observed surface temperature and humidity, MERRA includes no such local soil moisture adjustment and therefore lacks potential precipitation feedbacks induced by irrigation. The δ18O and δD signature of local irrigation recycling is evaluated using these incongruous observations. Self-organizing maps (SOM) are then used to identify a comprehensive range of synoptic conditions that result in precipitation at Konza LTER. Comparison of isotopic signature and SOM classification of rainfall events allows for identification of the primary moisture source and estimation of the contribution of locally recycled moisture. The climatology of precipitation source and changes in the influence of local moisture over the course of 14 years of observation are explored.

Impact of Altered Precipitation Patterns on Plant Productivity and Soil Respiration in a Northern Great Plains Grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haase, L.; Flanagan, L. B.

2017-12-01

Precipitation patterns are expected to shift towards larger but fewer rain events, with longer intermittent dry periods, associated with climate change. The larger rain events may compensate for and help to mitigate climate change effects on key ecosystem functions such as plant productivity and soil respiration in semi-arid grasslands. We experimentally manipulated the amount and frequency of simulated precipitation added to trenched, treatment plots that were covered by rain shelters, and measured the response in plant productivity and soil respiration in a native, grassland ecosystem near Lethbridge, Alberta. We compared the observed responses to the predictions of a conceptual ecosystem response model developed by Knapp et al. 2008 (BioScience 58: 811-821). Two experiments were conducted during 14 weeks of the growing season from May-August. The first experiment (normal amount) applied total growing season precipitation of 180 mm (climate normal), and the second experiment (reduced amount) applied total precipitation of 90 mm. In both experiments, precipitation was applied at two frequencies, 1 rain event every week (normal frequency) and 1 rain event every two weeks (reduced frequency). In the normal amount experiment, the average rain event was 12.8 mm for the normal frequency treatment and 25.8 mm for the reduced frequency treatment. In the reduced amount experiment, the average rain event was 6.4 mm for the normal frequency treatment and 12.8 mm for the reduced frequency treatment. We hypothesized that larger but fewer rain events would result in increased plant productivity and soil respiration for both experiments. Plant greenness values calculated from digital photographs were used as a proxy for plant productivity, and showed significantly higher values for the normal vs. reduced amount experiment. Soil respiration rate also showed significantly higher values for the normal vs. reduced amount experiment. No significant treatment effect could be detected between the normal vs. reduced frequency treatments in both experiments for either the plant greenness or soil respiration measurements. The results of this study have implications for understanding the mechanisms underlying ecosystem responses to anticipated precipitation change in the Great Plains.

Silicon isotopes fractionation in meteoric chemical weathering and hydrothermal alteration systems of volcanic rocks (Mayotte)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basile-Doelsch, Isabelle; Puyraveau, Romain-Arnaud; Guihou, Abel; Haurine, Frederic; Deschamps, Pierre; rad, Setareh; Nehlig, Pierre

2017-04-01

Low temperature chemical weathering fractionates silicon (Si) isotopes while forming secondary silicates. The Si fractionation ranges of high temperature secondary phyllosilicates formed in hydrothermal alteration environments have not been investigated to date. Several parameters, including temperature, reaction rates, pH, ionic concentrations in solution, precipitation/dissolution series or kinetic versus equilibrium regime are not the same in hydrothermal alteration and surface weathering systems and may lead to different fractionation factors. In this work, we analyzed Si isotopes in these two types of alteration conditions in two profiles sampled on the volcanic island of Mayotte. In both profiles, Si-bearing secondary mineral was kaolinite. Both profiles showed 30Si depletion as a function of the degree of alteration but each with a distinct pattern. In the meteoric weathering profile, from the bottom to the top, a gradual decrease of the δ30Si from parent rock (-0.29 ± 0.13 ‰) towards the most weathered product (-2.05 ± 0.13 ‰) was observed. In the hydrothermal alteration profile, in which meteoric weathering was also superimposed at the top of the profile, an abrupt transition of the δ30Si was measured at the interface between parent-rock (-0.21 ± 0.11 ‰) and the altered products, with a minimum value of -3.06 ± 0.16 ‰˙ At the scale of Si-bearing secondary minerals, in the chemical weathering system, a Δ30Sikaol-parentrock of -1.9 ‰ was observed, in agreement with results in the literature. A low temperature kinetic fractionation 30ɛ of -2.29 ‰ was calculated using a simple steady state model. However, an unexpected Δ30Sikaol-parentrock of -2.85 ‰ was measured in the hydrothermal alteration site, pointing to possible mechanisms linked to dissolution/precipitation series and/or to ionic composition of the solution as the main controlling factors of fractionation in hydrothermal conditions. At the scale of the profiles, both δ30Si bulk rocks showed linear correlations with the SiO2:Al2O3 ratios, suggesting an alternative alteration index based on Si isotopic composition.

Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals

PubMed Central

Ahlers, Adam A.; Cotner, Lisa A.; Wolff, Patrick J.; Mitchell, Mark A.; Heske, Edward J.; Schooley, Robert L.

2015-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007–2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models. PMID:26284916

Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals.

PubMed

Ahlers, Adam A; Cotner, Lisa A; Wolff, Patrick J; Mitchell, Mark A; Heske, Edward J; Schooley, Robert L

2015-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007-2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models.

Effect of boreal spring precipitation anomaly pattern change in the late 1990s over tropical Pacific on the atmospheric teleconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yuanyuan; Wen, Zhiping; Chen, Ruidan; Li, Xiuzhen; Yang, Xiu-Qun

2018-02-01

Observational evidence showed that the leading mode of precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific during boreal spring experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s, characterized by a precipitation pattern shift from an eastern Pacific (EP) type to a central Pacific (CP) type. The distinct impacts of such a precipitation pattern shift on the extratropical atmospheric teleconnection were examined. An apparent poleward teleconnection extending from the tropics to the North Atlantic region was observed after 1998, while, there was no significant teleconnection before 1998. To understand why only the CP-type precipitation mode is associated with a striking atmospheric teleconnection after 1998, diagnostic analyses with the Eliassen-Palm flux and Rossby wave source (RWS) based on the barotropic vorticity equation were performed. The results show that for the EP-type precipitation mode, no significant RWS anomalies appeared over the subtropical Pacific due to the opposite effect of the vortex stretching and absolute vorticity advection processes. For the CP-type precipitation mode, however, there are both significant vorticity forcing source over the subtropical CP and clear poleward-propagation of Rossby wave. The spatial distribution of the CP-type precipitation pattern tends to excite a conspicuous anomalous southerly and a well-organized negative vorticity center over the subtropical CP where both the mean absolute vorticity gradient and mean divergence flow are large, hence, the interaction between the heating-induced anomalous circulation and the basic state made the generation of Rossby waves conceivable and effective. Such corresponding teleconnection responses to the prescribed heating were also examined by using a Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM). It turned out that significant poleward teleconnection pattern is only caused by the CP-type precipitation mode, rather than by the EP-type precipitation mode. Further sensitive experiments demonstrated that the change in spring basic state before and after 1998 played a relatively minor role in exciting such a teleconnection pattern, when compared with the tropical precipitation anomaly pattern change.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Hydrological differentiation and spatial distribution of high altitude wetlands in a semi-arid Andean region derived from satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, M.; Scherer, D.; Richters, J.

2011-01-01

High Altitude Wetlands of the Andes (HAWA) are unique types of wetlands within the semi-arid high Andean region. Knowledge about HAWA has been derived mainly from studies at single sites within different parts of the Andes at only small time scales. On the one hand HAWA depend on water provided by glacier streams, snow melt or precipitation. On the other hand, they are suspected to influence hydrology through water retention and vegetation growth altering stream flow velocity. We derived HAWA land cover from satellite data at regional scale and analysed changes in connection with precipitation over the last decade. Perennial and temporal HAWA subtypes can be distinguished by seasonal changes of photosynthetically active vegetation (PAV) indicating the perennial or temporal availability of water during the year. HAWA have been delineated within a region of 11 000 km2 situated in the Northwest of Lake Titicaca. The multi temporal classification method used Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Differenced Infrared Index (NDII) data derived from two Landsat ETM+ scenes at the end of austral winter (September 2000) and at the end of austral summer (May 2001). The mapping result indicates an unexpected high abundance of HAWA covering about 800 km2 of the study region (6%). Annual HAWA mapping was computed using NDVI 16-day composites of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Analyses on the reletation between HAWA and precipitation was based on monthly precipitation data of the Tropical Rain Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B43) and MODIS Eight Day Maximum Snow Extent data (MOD10A2) from 2000 to 2010. We found HAWA subtype specific dependencies to precipitation conditions. Strong relation exists between perennial HAWA and snow fall (r2: 0.82) in dry austral winter months (June to August) and between temporal HAWA and precipitation (r2: 0.75) during austral summer (March to May). Annual spatial patterns of perennial HAWA indicated spatial alteration of water supply for PAV up to several hundred metres at a single HAWA site.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on a prairie plant community.

PubMed

Adler, Peter B; Leiker, James; Levine, Jonathan M

2009-09-03

Climate change directly affects species by altering their physical environment and indirectly affects species by altering interspecific interactions such as predation and competition. Recent studies have shown that the indirect effects of climate change may amplify or counteract the direct effects. However, little is known about the the relative strength of direct and indirect effects or their potential to impact population persistence. We studied the effects of altered precipitation and interspecific interactions on the low-density tiller growth rates and biomass production of three perennial grass species in a Kansas, USA mixed prairie. We transplanted plugs of each species into local neighborhoods of heterospecific competitors and then exposed the plugs to a factorial manipulation of growing season precipitation and neighbor removal. Precipitation treatments had significant direct effects on two of the three species. Interspecific competition also had strong effects, reducing low-density tiller growth rates and aboveground biomass production for all three species. In fact, in the presence of competitors, (log) tiller growth rates were close to or below zero for all three species. However, we found no convincing evidence that per capita competitive effects changed with precipitation, as shown by a lack of significant precipitation x competition interactions. We found little evidence that altered precipitation will influence per capita competitive effects. However, based on species' very low growth rates in the presence of competitors in some precipitation treatments, interspecific interactions appear strong enough to affect the balance between population persistence and local extinction. Therefore, ecological forecasting models should include the effect of interspecific interactions on population growth, even if such interaction coefficients are treated as constants.

Net primary productivity and rain-use efficiency as affected by warming, altered precipitation, and clipping in a mixed-grass prairie.

PubMed

Xu, Xia; Sherry, Rebecca A; Niu, Shuli; Li, Dejun; Luo, Yiqi

2013-09-01

Grassland productivity in response to climate change and land use is a global concern. In order to explore the effects of climate change and land use on net primary productivity (NPP), NPP partitioning [fBNPP , defined as the fraction of belowground NPP (BNPP) to NPP], and rain-use efficiency (RUE) of NPP, we conducted a field experiment with warming (+3 °C), altered precipitation (double and half), and annual clipping in a mixed-grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA since July, 2009. Across the years, warming significantly increased BNPP, fBNPP , and RUEBNPP by an average of 11.6%, 2.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. This indicates that BNPP was more sensitive to warming than aboveground NPP (ANPP) since warming did not change ANPP and RUEANPP much. Double precipitation stimulated ANPP, BNPP, and NPP but suppressed RUEANPP , RUEBNPP , and RUENPP while half precipitation decreased ANPP, BNPP, and NPP but increased RUEANPP , RUEBNPP , and RUENPP . Clipping interacted with altered precipitation in impacting RUEANPP , RUEBNPP , and RUENPP , suggesting land use could confound the effects of precipitation changes on ecosystem processes. Soil moisture was found to be a main factor in regulating variation in ANPP, BNPP, and NPP while soil temperature was the dominant factor influencing fBNPP . These findings suggest that BNPP is critical point to future research. Additionally, results from single-factor manipulative experiments should be treated with caution due to the non-additive interactive effects of warming with altered precipitation and land use (clipping). © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of boreal autumn SST anomalies over the South Pacific on boreal winter precipitation over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ao, Juan; Sun, Jianqi

2016-05-01

The possible mechanism behind the variability in the dipole pattern of boreal winter precipitation over East Asia is analyzed in this study. The results show that the SST anomalies (SSTAs) over the South Pacific Ocean (SPO) in boreal autumn are closely related to the variability in the dipole pattern of boreal winter precipitation over East Asia. The physical link between the boreal autumn SPO SSTAs and the boreal winter East Asian precipitation dipole pattern is shown to mainly be the seasonal persistence of the SPO SSTAs themselves. The seasonal persistence of the SPO SSTAs can memorize and transport the signal of the boreal autumn SSTAs to the following winter, and then stimulates a meridional teleconnection pattern from the SH to the NH, resulting in a meridional dipole pattern of atmospheric circulation over East Asia in boreal winter. As a major influencing factor, this dipole pattern of the atmospheric circulation can finally lead to the anomalous precipitation dipole pattern over East Asia in boreal winter. These observed physical processes are further confirmed in this study through numerical simulation. The evidence from this study, showing the impact of the SPO SSTAs in boreal autumn, not only deepens our understanding of the variability in East Asian boreal winter precipitation, but also provides a potentially useful predictor for precipitation in the region.

A new precipitation and meteorological drought climatology based on weather patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, D.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.; Neal, R.

2017-12-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterise the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. An analysis of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a set of objectively defined weather patterns is presented. This classification system, introduced last year, is currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. The classification consists of 30 daily patterns derived from North Atlantic Ocean and European mean sea level pressure data. Clustering these 30 patterns yields another set of eight patterns that are intended for use in longer-range applications. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to the commonly-used Lamb Weather Types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Drought index series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for different drought index thresholds, representing dry, wet and drought conditions. The set of 30 weather patterns is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although the smaller set of clustered patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in the context of precipitation studies. Weather patterns associated with drought over the different UK regions are identified. This has potential forecasting application - if a model (e.g. a global seasonal forecast model) can predict weather pattern occurrences then regional drought outlooks may be derived from the forecasted weather patterns.

Photoreceptor Mediated Plant Growth Responses: Implications for Photoreceptor Engineering toward Improved Performance in Crops

PubMed Central

Mawphlang, Ophilia I. L.; Kharshiing, Eros V.

2017-01-01

Rising temperatures during growing seasons coupled with altered precipitation rates presents a challenging task of improving crop productivity for overcoming such altered weather patterns and cater to a growing population. Light is a critical environmental factor that exerts a powerful influence on plant growth and development ranging from seed germination to flowering and fruiting. Higher plants utilize a suite of complex photoreceptor proteins to perceive surrounding red/far-red (phytochromes), blue/UV-A (cryptochromes, phototropins, ZTL/FKF1/LKP2), and UV-B light (UVR8). While genomic studies have also shown that light induces extensive reprogramming of gene expression patterns in plants, molecular genetic studies have shown that manipulation of one or more photoreceptors can result in modification of agronomically beneficial traits. Such information can assist researchers to engineer photoreceptors via genome editing technologies to alter expression or even sensitivity thresholds of native photoreceptors for targeting aspects of plant growth that can confer superior agronomic value to the engineered crops. Here we summarize the agronomically important plant growth processes influenced by photoreceptors in crop species, alongwith the functional interactions between different photoreceptors and phytohormones in regulating these responses. We also discuss the potential utility of synthetic biology approaches in photobiology for improving agronomically beneficial traits of crop plants by engineering designer photoreceptors. PMID:28744290

Asynchronous vegetation phenology enhances winter body condition of a large mobile herbivore.

PubMed

Searle, Kate R; Rice, Mindy B; Anderson, Charles R; Bishop, Chad; Hobbs, N T

2015-10-01

Understanding how spatial and temporal heterogeneity influence ecological processes forms a central challenge in ecology. Individual responses to heterogeneity shape population dynamics, therefore understanding these responses is central to sustainable population management. Emerging evidence has shown that herbivores track heterogeneity in nutritional quality of vegetation by responding to phenological differences in plants. We quantified the benefits mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) accrue from accessing habitats with asynchronous plant phenology in northwest Colorado over 3 years. Our analysis examined both the direct physiological and indirect environmental effects of weather and vegetation phenology on mule deer winter body condition. We identified several important effects of annual weather patterns and topographical variables on vegetation phenology in the home ranges of mule deer. Crucially, temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were linked with differences in body condition, with deer tending to show poorer body condition in areas with less asynchronous vegetation green-up and later vegetation onset. The direct physiological effect of previous winter precipitation on mule deer body condition was much less important than the indirect effect mediated by vegetation phenology. Additionally, the influence of vegetation phenology on body fat was much stronger than that of overall vegetation productivity. In summary, changing annual weather patterns, particularly in relation to seasonal precipitation, have the potential to alter body condition of this important ungulate species during the critical winter period. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining large contiguous areas of spatially and temporally variable resources to allow animals to compensate behaviourally for changing climate-driven resource patterns.

Analysis of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions based on MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Feng; Zhang, Jiahua; He, Junliang; Zha, Yong; Li, Qiannan; Li, Yunmei

2017-01-01

Aerosols exert an indirect impact on climate change via its impact on clouds by altering its radiative and optical properties which, in turn, changes the process of precipitation. Over recent years how to study the indirect climate effect of aerosols has become an important research topic. In this study we attempted to understand the complex mutual interactions among aerosols, clouds and precipitation through analysis of the spatial correlation between aerosol optical depth (AOD), cloud effective radius (CER) and precipitation during 2000-2012 in central-eastern China that has one of the highest concentrations of aerosols globally. With the assistance of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived aerosol and cloud product data, this analysis focuses on regional differentiation and seasonal variation of the correlation in which in situ observed precipitation was incorporated. On the basis of the achieved results, we proposed four patterns depicting the mutual interactions between aerosols, clouds and precipitation. They characterize the indirect effects of aerosols on the regional scale. These effects can be summarized as complex seasonal variations and north-south regional differentiation over the study area. The relationship between AOD and CER is predominated mostly by the first indirect effect (the negative correlation between AOD and CER) in the north of the study area in the winter and spring seasons, and over the entire study area in the summer season. The relationship between CER and precipitation is dominated chiefly by the second indirect effect (the positive correlation between CER and precipitation) in the northern area in summer and over the entire study area in autumn. It must be noted that aerosols are not the factor affecting clouds and rainfall singularly. It is the joint effect of aerosols with other factors such as atmospheric dynamics that governs the variation in clouds and rainfall.

CALIOP-based Biomass Burning Smoke Plume Injection Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Choi, H. D.; Fairlie, T. D.; Pouliot, G.; Baker, K. R.; Winker, D. M.; Trepte, C. R.; Szykman, J.

2017-12-01

Carbon and aerosols are cycled between terrestrial and atmosphere environments during fire events, and these emissions have strong feedbacks to near-field weather, air quality, and longer-term climate systems. Fire severity and burned area are under the control of weather and climate, and fire emissions have the potential to alter numerous land and atmospheric processes that, in turn, feedback to and interact with climate systems (e.g., changes in patterns of precipitation, black/brown carbon deposition on ice/snow, alteration in landscape and atmospheric/cloud albedo). If plume injection height is incorrectly estimated, then the transport and deposition of those emissions will also be incorrect. The heights to which smoke is injected governs short- or long-range transport, which influences surface pollution, cloud interaction (altered albedo), and modifies patterns of precipitation (cloud condensation nuclei). We are working with the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) science team and other stakeholder agencies, primarily the Environmental Protection Agency and regional partners, to generate a biomass burning (BB) plume injection height database using multiple platforms, sensors and models (CALIOP, MODIS, NOAA HMS, Langley Trajectory Model). These data have the capacity to provide enhanced smoke plume injection height parameterization in regional, national and international scientific and air quality models. Statistics that link fire behavior and weather to plume rise are crucial for verifying and enhancing plume rise parameterization in local-, regional- and global-scale models used for air quality, chemical transport and climate. Specifically, we will present: (1) a methodology that links BB injection height and CALIOP air parcels to specific fires; (2) the daily evolution of smoke plumes for specific fires; (3) plumes transport and deposited on the Greenland Ice Sheet; and (4) compare CALIOP-derived smoke plume injection to CMAQ modeled smoke plume injection. These results have the potential to provide value to national and international modeling communities (scientific and air quality) and to public land, fire, and air quality management and regulations communities.

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

PubMed

Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

2018-02-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

Establishing the environmental risk of metal contaminated river bank sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Sarah; Batty, Lesley; Byrne, Patrick

2016-04-01

Climate change predictions indicate an increase in the frequency and duration of flood events along with longer dry antecedent conditions, which could alter patterns of trace metal release from contaminated river bank sediments. This study took a laboratory mesocosm approach. Chemical analysis of water and sediment samples allowed the patterns of Pb and Zn release and key mechanisms controlling Pb and Zn mobility to be determined. Trace metal contaminants Pb and Zn were released throughout flooded periods. The highest concentrations of dissolved Pb were observed at the end of the longest flood period and high concentrations of dissolved Zn were released at the start of a flood. These concentrations were found to exceed environmental quality standards. Key mechanisms controlling mobility were (i) evaporation, precipitation and dissolution of Zn sulphate salts, (ii) anglesite solubility control of dissolved Pb, (iii) oxidation of galena and sphalerite, (iv) reductive dissolution of Mn/Fe hydroxides and co-precipitation/adsorption with Zn. In light of climate change predictions these results indicate future scenarios may include larger or more frequent transient 'pulses' of dissolved Pb and Zn released to river systems. These short lived pollution episodes could act as a significant barrier to achieving the EU Water Framework Directive objectives.

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lei; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yaocun

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation,more » the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.« less

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Assessing vegetation structure and ANPP dynamics in a grassland-shrubland Chihuahuan ecotone using NDVI-rainfall relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno-de las Heras, M.; Diaz-Sierra, R.; Turnbull, L.; Wainwright, J.

2015-01-01

Climate change and the widespread alteration of natural habitats are major drivers of vegetation change in drylands. A classic case of vegetation change is the shrub-encroachment process that has been taking place over the last 150 years in the Chihuahuan Desert, where large areas of grasslands dominated by perennial grass species (black grama, Bouteloua eriopoda, and blue grama, B. gracilis) have transitioned to shrublands dominated by woody species (creosotebush, Larrea tridentata, and mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa), accompanied by accelerated water and wind erosion. Multiple mechanisms drive the shrub-encroachment process, including exogenous triggering factors such as precipitation variations and land-use change, and endogenous amplifying mechanisms brought about by soil erosion-vegetation feedbacks. In this study, simulations of plant biomass dynamics with a simple modelling framework indicate that herbaceous (grasses and forbs) and shrub vegetation in drylands have different responses to antecedent precipitation due to functional differences in plant growth and water-use patterns, and therefore shrub encroachment may be reflected in the analysis of landscape-scale vegetation-rainfall relationships. We analyze the structure and dynamics of vegetation at an 18 km2 grassland-shrubland ecotone in the northern edge of the Chihuahuan Desert (McKenzie Flats, Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, NM, USA) by investigating the relationship between decade-scale (2000-2013) records of medium-resolution remote sensing of vegetation greenness (MODIS NDVI) and precipitation. Spatial evaluation of NDVI-rainfall relationship at the studied ecotone indicates that herbaceous vegetation shows quick growth pulses associated with short-term (previous 2 months) precipitation, while shrubs show a slow response to medium-term (previous 5 months) precipitation. We use these relationships to (a) classify landscape types as a function of the spatial distribution of dominant vegetation, and to (b) decompose the NDVI signal into partial primary production components for herbaceous vegetation and shrubs across the study site. We further apply remote-sensed annual net primary production (ANPP) estimations and landscape type classification to explore the influence of inter-annual variations in seasonal precipitation on the production of herbaceous and shrub vegetation. Our results suggest that changes in the amount and temporal pattern of precipitation comprising reductions in monsoonal summer rainfall and/or increases in winter precipitation may enhance the shrub-encroachment process in desert grasslands of the American Southwest.

Precipitation-generated oscillations in open cellular cloud fields.

PubMed

Feingold, Graham; Koren, Ilan; Wang, Hailong; Xue, Huiwen; Brewer, Wm Alan

2010-08-12

Cloud fields adopt many different patterns that can have a profound effect on the amount of sunlight reflected back to space, with important implications for the Earth's climate. These cloud patterns can be observed in satellite images of the Earth and often exhibit distinct cell-like structures associated with organized convection at scales of tens of kilometres. Recent evidence has shown that atmospheric aerosol particles-through their influence on precipitation formation-help to determine whether cloud fields take on closed (more reflective) or open (less reflective) cellular patterns. The physical mechanisms controlling the formation and evolution of these cells, however, are still poorly understood, limiting our ability to simulate realistically the effects of clouds on global reflectance. Here we use satellite imagery and numerical models to show how precipitating clouds produce an open cellular cloud pattern that oscillates between different, weakly stable states. The oscillations are a result of precipitation causing downward motion and outflow from clouds that were previously positively buoyant. The evaporating precipitation drives air down to the Earth's surface, where it diverges and collides with the outflows of neighbouring precipitating cells. These colliding outflows form surface convergence zones and new cloud formation. In turn, the newly formed clouds produce precipitation and new colliding outflow patterns that are displaced from the previous ones. As successive cycles of this kind unfold, convergence zones alternate with divergence zones and new cloud patterns emerge to replace old ones. The result is an oscillating, self-organized system with a characteristic cell size and precipitation frequency.

The role of precipitation in aerosol-induced changes in northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewinschal, A.; Ekman, A. M. L.; Körnich, H.

2012-04-01

Aerosol particles have a considerable impact on the energy budget of the atmosphere due to their ability to scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. Persistent particle emissions in certain regions of the world have lead to quasi-permanent aerosol forcing patterns. This spatially varying forcing pattern has the potential to modify temperature gradients that in turn alter pressure gradients and the atmospheric circulation. This study focuses on the effect of aerosol direct radiative forcing on northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves. A global general circulation model based on the ECMWF operational forecast model is applied (EC-Earth). Aerosols are prescribed as monthly mean mixing ratios of sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust and sea salt. Only the direct aerosol effect is considered. The climatic change is defined as the difference between model simulations using present-day and pre-industrial concentrations of aerosol particles. Data from 40-year long simulations using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model system are used. In EC-Earth, the high aerosol loading over South Asia leads to a surface cooling, which appears to enhance the South Asian winter monsoon and weaken the Indian Ocean Walker circulation. The anomalous Walker circulation leads to changes in tropical convective precipitation and consequent changes in latent heat release which effectively acts to generate planetary scale waves propagating into the extra-tropics. Using a steady-state linear model we verify that the aerosol-induced anomalous convective precipitation is a crucial link between the wave changes and the direct aerosol radiative forcing.

From vein precipitates to deformation and fluid rock interaction within a SSZ: Insights from the Izu-Bonin-Mariana fore arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micheuz, Peter; Quandt, Dennis; Kurz, Walter

2017-04-01

International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) expeditions 352 and 351 drilled through oceanic crust of the Philippine Sea plate. The two study areas are located near the outer Izu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) fore arc and in the Amami Sankaku Basin. The primary objective was to improve our understanding of supra-subduction zones (SSZ) and the process of subduction initiation. The recovered drill cores during IODP expedition 352 represent approximately 50 Ma old fore arc basalts (FAB) and boninites revealing an entire volcanic sequence of a SSZ. Expedition 351 drilled FAB like oceanic crust similar in age to the FABs of expedition 352. In this study we present data on vein microstructures, geochemical data and isotopic signatures of vein precipitates to give new insights into fluid flow and precipitation processes and deformation within the Izu-Bonin fore arc. Veins formed predominantly as a consequence of hydrofracturing resulting in the occurrence of branched vein systems and brecciated samples. Along these hydrofractures the amount of altered host rock fragments varies and locally alters the host rock completely to zeolites and carbonates. Subordinately extensional veins released after the formation of the host rocks. Cross-cutting relationships of different vein types point to multiple fracturing events subsequently filled with minerals originating from a fluid with isotopic seawater signature. Based on vein precipitates, their morphology and their growth patterns four vein types have been defined. Major vein components are (Mg-) calcite and various zeolites determined by Raman spectra and electron microprobe analyses. Zeolites result from alteration of volcanic glass during interaction with a seawaterlike fluid. Type I veins which are characterized by micritic infill represent neptunian dykes. They predominantly occur in the upper levels of drill cores being the result of an initial volume change subsequently to crystallization of the host rocks. Type II veins are characterized by blocky carbonates and idiomorphic to blocky zeolites. Blocky carbonates locally exhibit zonation patterns. Type III and type IV veins are both assumed to be extensional veins. Type III is characterized by syntaxial growth and elongate blocky carbonate minerals. They predominantly occur as asymmetric syntaxial veins, locally exhibiting more than one crack-seal event. Type IV veins are defined as antitaxial fibrous carbonates. Type II veins commonly show deformation microstructures like twinning (type I/II twins), slightly curved twins, and subgrain boundaries indicative of incipient plastic deformation. Based on these observations differential stresses around 50 MPa were needed to deform vein minerals, presumably related to IBM fore arc extension due to the retreat of the subducted Pacific plate. We acknowledge financial support by the Austrian Research Fund (P27982-N29) to W. Kurz

Arctic Vortex changes alter the sources and isotopic values of precipitation in northeastern US

Treesearch

Tamir Puntsag; Myron J. Mitchell; John L. Campbell; Eric S. Klein; Gene E. Likens; Jeffrey M. Welker

2016-01-01

Altered atmospheric circulation, reductions in Arctic sea ice, ocean warming, and changes in evaporation and transpiration are driving changes in the global hydrologic cycle. Precipitation isotopic (δ18O and δ2H) measurements can help provide a mechanistic understanding of hydrologic change at global and regional scales. To...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Hongkyu; Major, Jonathan; Dewers, Thomas

Dissolved CO 2 in the subsurface resulting from geological CO 2 storage may react with minerals in fractured rocks, confined aquifers, or faults, resulting in mineral precipitation and dissolution. The overall rate of reaction can be affected by coupled processes including hydrodynamics, transport, and reactions at the (sub) pore-scale. In this work pore-scale modeling of coupled fluid flow, reactive transport, and heterogeneous reactions at the mineral surface is applied to account for permeability alterations caused by precipitation-induced pore-blocking. This paper is motivated by observations of CO 2 seeps from a natural CO 2 sequestration analog, Crystal Geyser, Utah. Observations alongmore » the surface exposure of the Little Grand Wash fault indicate the lateral migration of CO 2 seep sites (i.e., alteration zones) of 10–50 m width with spacing on the order of ~100 m over time. Sandstone permeability in alteration zones is reduced by 3–4 orders of magnitude by carbonate cementation compared to unaltered zones. One granular porous medium and one fracture network systems are used to conceptually represent permeable porous media and locations of conduits controlled by fault-segment intersections and/or topography, respectively. Simulation cases accounted for a range of reaction regimes characterized by the Damköhler (Da) and Peclet (Pe) numbers. Pore-scale simulation results demonstrate that combinations of transport (Pe), geochemical conditions (Da), solution chemistry, and pore and fracture configurations contributed to match key patterns observed in the field of how calcite precipitation alters flow paths by pore plugging. This comparison of simulation results with field observations reveals mechanistic explanations of the lateral migration and enhances our understanding of subsurface processes associated with the CO 2 injection. In addition, permeability and porosity relations are constructed from pore-scale simulations which account for a range of reaction regimes characterized by the Da and Pe numbers. Finally, the functional relationships obtained from pore-scale simulations can be used in a continuum scale model that may account for large-scale phenomena mimicking lateral migration of surface CO 2 seeps.« less

An Innovative Metric to Evaluate Satellite Precipitation's Spatial Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Chu, W.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2011-12-01

Thanks to its capability to cover the mountains, where ground measurement instruments cannot reach, satellites provide a good means of estimating precipitation over mountainous regions. In regions with complex terrains, accurate information on high-resolution spatial distribution of precipitation is critical for many important issues, such as flood/landslide warning, reservoir operation, water system planning, etc. Therefore, in order to be useful in many practical applications, satellite precipitation products should possess high quality in characterizing spatial distribution. However, most existing validation metrics, which are based on point/grid comparison using simple statistics, cannot effectively measure satellite's skill of capturing the spatial patterns of precipitation fields. This deficiency results from the fact that point/grid-wised comparison does not take into account of the spatial coherence of precipitation fields. Furth more, another weakness of many metrics is that they can barely provide information on why satellite products perform well or poor. Motivated by our recent findings of the consistent spatial patterns of the precipitation field over the western U.S., we developed a new metric utilizing EOF analysis and Shannon entropy. The metric can be derived through two steps: 1) capture the dominant spatial patterns of precipitation fields from both satellite products and reference data through EOF analysis, and 2) compute the similarities between the corresponding dominant patterns using mutual information measurement defined with Shannon entropy. Instead of individual point/grid, the new metric treat the entire precipitation field simultaneously, naturally taking advantage of spatial dependence. Since the dominant spatial patterns are shaped by physical processes, the new metric can shed light on why satellite product can or cannot capture the spatial patterns. For demonstration, a experiment was carried out to evaluate a satellite precipitation product, CMORPH, against the U.S. daily precipitation analysis of Climate Prediction Center (CPC) at a daily and .25o scale over the Western U.S.

In the hot seat : Insolation and ENSO controls on vegetation productivity in tropical Africa inferred from NDVI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivory, S.; Russell, J. L.; Cohen, A. S.

2010-12-01

Threats to tropical biodiversity with serious and costly implications for both ecosystems and human well-being in Africa have led the IPCC to classify this region as vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change. Yet little is known about how vegetation communities respond to altered patterns of rainfall and evaporation. Paleoclimate records within the tropics can help answer questions about how vegetation response to climate forcing changes over time. However, sparse spatial extent of records and uncertainty surrounding the climate-vegetation relationship complicate these insights. Understanding the climatic mechanisms involved in landscape change at all temporal scales creates the need for quantitative constraints of the modern relationship between climatic controls, hydrology, and vegetation. Though modern observational data can help elucidate this relationship, low resolution and complicated rainfall/vegetation associations make them less than ideal. Satellite data of vegetation productivity (NDVI) with continuous high-resolution spatial coverage provides a robust and elegant tool for identifying the link between global and regional controls and vegetation. We use regression analyses of variables either previously proposed or potentially important in regulating Afro-tropical vegetation (insolation, out-going long-wave radiation, geopotential height, Southern Oscillation Index, Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian Monsoon precipitation, sea-level pressure, surface wind, sea-surface temperature) on continuous, time-varying spatial fields of 8km NDVI for sub-Saharan Africa. These analyses show the importance of global atmospheric controls in producing regional intra-annual and inter-annual vegetation variability. Dipole patterns emerge primarily correlated with both the seasonal and inter-annual extent of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Inter-annual ITCZ variability drives patterns in African vegetation resulting from the effect of insolation anomalies and ENSO events on atmospheric circulation rather than sea surface temperatures or teleconnections to mid/high latitudes. Global controls on tropical atmospheric circulation regulate vegetation throughout sub-Saharan Africa on many time scales through alteration of dry season length and moisture convergence, rather than precipitation amount.

The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Canada and their connections to large-scale climate patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.

2017-12-01

In the past few decades, there have been more extreme climate events around the world, and Canada has also suffered from numerous extreme precipitation events. In this paper, trend analysis, change point analysis, probability distribution function, principal component analysis and wavelet analysis were used to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in Canada. Ten extreme precipitation indices were calculated using long-term daily precipitation data from 164 gauging stations. Several large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific-North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were selected to analyze the relationships between extreme precipitation and climate indices. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), specific humidity, and surface temperature were employed to investigate the potential causes of the trends.The results show statistically significant positive trends for most indices, which indicate increasing extreme precipitation. The majority of indices display more increasing trends along the southern border of Canada while decreasing trends dominate in the central Canadian Prairies (CP). In addition, strong connections are found between the extreme precipitation and climate indices and the effects of climate pattern differ for each region. The seasonal CAPE, specific humidity, and temperature are found to be closely related to Canadian extreme precipitation.

A meta-analysis of soil exoenzyme responses to simulated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebhardt, M.; Espinosa, N. J.; Blankinship, J. C.; Gallery, R. E.

2017-12-01

Microorganisms produce extracellular enzymes to decompose plant matter and drive biogeochemical transformations in soils. Climate change factors, such as warming and altered precipitation patterns, can impact enzyme activity through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Although many individual studies have examined how soil exoenzyme activities respond to climate change manipulations, there is disagreement surrounding the direction of these responses. We performed a synthesis of published studies to examine the influence of warming and altered precipitation on microbial exoenzyme activity. We found that warming increased enzyme activity with a more pronounced effect for oxidative relative to hydrolytic enzymes. Reduced precipitation consistently decreased exoenzyme activity. These responses, however, varied by season, biome, and enzyme type. The majority of studies fitting our criteria (e.g., experiments lasting a minimum of one growing season, paired treatments and controls) were located in North America and Europe. Inferences from this analysis therefore exclude many important ecosystems such as hyper-arid, wetlands, and artic systems. Carbon degrading enzyme activities were less sensitive to climate change manipulations when compared to phosphorus and nitrogen degrading enzyme activities. Linking enzyme activity to biogeochemical processes requires concomitant measurements of organic and inorganic carbon pools, mineralogy, nutrients, microbial biomass and community structure, and heterotrophic respiration within individual studies. Furthermore, linking these parameters to climate and environmental factors will require a comprehensive and consistent inclusion of biotic and abiotic variables among researchers and experiments. Globally, soils contain the largest carbon pools. Understanding the impacts of large-scale perturbations on soil enzyme activity will help to constrain predictions on the fate of biogeochemical transformations and improve model projections.

Ecosystem response to climatic variables - air temperature and precipitation: How can these variables alter plant productions in C4-grass dominant ecosystem?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, C. G.; Jiang, L.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Understanding net primary production (NPP) response to the key climatic variables, temperature and precipitation, is essential since the response could be represented by one of future consequences from ecosystem responses. Under future climatic warming, fluctuating precipitation is expected. In addition, NPP solely could not explain whole ecosystem response; therefore, not only NPP, but also above- and below-ground NPP (ANPP and BNPP, respectively) need to be examined. This examination needs to include how the plant productions response along temperature and precipitation gradients. Several studies have examined the response of NPP against each of single climatic variable, but understanding the response of ANPP and BNPP to the multiple variables is notably poor. In this study, we used the plant productions data (NPP, ANPP, and BNPP) with climatic variables, i.e., air temperature and precipitation, from 1999 to 2015 under warming and clipping treatments (mimicking hay-harvesting) in C4-grass dominant ecosystem located in central Oklahoma, United States. Firstly, we examined the nonlinear relationships with the climatic variables for NPP, ANPP and BNPP; and then predicted possible responses in the temperature - precipitation space by using a linear mixed effect model. Nonlinearities of NPP, ANPP and BNPP to the climatic variables have been found to show unimodal curves, and nonlinear models have better goodness of fit as shown lower Akaike information criterion (AIC) than linear models. Optimum condition for NPP is represented at high temperature and precipitation level whereas BNPP is maximized at moderate precipitation levels while ANPP has same range of NPP's optimum condition. Clipping significantly reduced ANPP while there was no clipping effect on NPP and BNPP. Furthermore, inclining NPP and ANPP have shown in a range from moderate to high precipitation level with increasing temperature while inclining pattern for BNPP was observed in moderate precipitation level. Overall, the C4-grass dominant ecosystem has a potential for considerable increases in NPP in hotter and wetter conditions as shown a range from moderate to high temperature and precipitation levels; ANPP has peaked at the high temperature and precipitation level, but maximum BNPP needs moderate precipitation level and high temperature.

Variations in soil carbon sequestration and their determinants along a precipitation gradient in seasonally dry tropical forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Campo, Julio; Merino, Agustín

2016-05-01

The effect of precipitation regime on the C cycle of tropical forests is poorly understood, despite the existence of models that suggest a drier climate may substantially alter the source-sink function of these ecosystems. Along a precipitation regime gradient containing 12 mature seasonally dry tropical forests growing under otherwise similar conditions (similar annual temperature, rainfall seasonality, and geological substrate), we analyzed the influence of variation in annual precipitation (1240 to 642 mm) and duration of seasonal drought on soil C. We investigated litterfall, decomposition in the forest floor, and C storage in the mineral soil, and analyzed the dependence of these processes and pools on precipitation. Litterfall decreased slightly - about 10% - from stands with 1240 mm yr(-1) to those with 642 mm yr(-1), while the decomposition decreased by 56%. Reduced precipitation strongly affected C storage and basal respiration in the mineral soil. Higher soil C storage at the drier sites was also related to the higher chemical recalcitrance of litter (fine roots and forest floor) and the presence of charcoal across sites, suggesting an important indirect influence of climate on C sequestration. Basal respiration was controlled by the amount of recalcitrant organic matter in the mineral soil. We conclude that in these forest ecosystems, the long-term consequences of decreased precipitation would be an increase in organic layer and mineral soil C storage, mainly due to lower decomposition and higher chemical recalcitrance of organic matter, resulting from changes in litter composition and, likely also, wildfire patterns. This could turn these seasonally dry tropical forests into significant soil C sinks under the predicted longer drought periods if primary productivity is maintained. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Archival processes of the water stable isotope signal in East Antarctic ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, Mathieu; Landais, Amaelle; Picard, Ghislain; Münch, Thomas; Laepple, Thomas; Stenni, Barbara; Dreossi, Giuliano; Ekaykin, Alexey; Arnaud, Laurent; Genthon, Christophe; Touzeau, Alexandra; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Jouzel, Jean

2018-05-01

The oldest ice core records are obtained from the East Antarctic Plateau. Water isotopes are key proxies to reconstructing past climatic conditions over the ice sheet and at the evaporation source. The accuracy of climate reconstructions depends on knowledge of all processes affecting water vapour, precipitation and snow isotopic compositions. Fractionation processes are well understood and can be integrated in trajectory-based Rayleigh distillation and isotope-enabled climate models. However, a quantitative understanding of processes potentially altering snow isotopic composition after deposition is still missing. In low-accumulation sites, such as those found in East Antarctica, these poorly constrained processes are likely to play a significant role and limit the interpretability of an ice core's isotopic composition. By combining observations of isotopic composition in vapour, precipitation, surface snow and buried snow from Dome C, a deep ice core site on the East Antarctic Plateau, we found indications of a seasonal impact of metamorphism on the surface snow isotopic signal when compared to the initial precipitation. Particularly in summer, exchanges of water molecules between vapour and snow are driven by the diurnal sublimation-condensation cycles. Overall, we observe in between precipitation events modification of the surface snow isotopic composition. Using high-resolution water isotopic composition profiles from snow pits at five Antarctic sites with different accumulation rates, we identified common patterns which cannot be attributed to the seasonal variability of precipitation. These differences in the precipitation, surface snow and buried snow isotopic composition provide evidence of post-deposition processes affecting ice core records in low-accumulation areas.

Global Terrestrial Patterns of Precipitation Change under a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, R.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial global warming has occurred over the last century, especially since the 1950s. This study analyzes changes in global terrestrial precipitation patterns in period of 1950-2010 in an attempt to identify the influence of climate change on precipitation. The results indicate that there is no significant change globally or across latitude bands; nevertheless significant regional differences in precipitation changes are identified. The lack of a change in precipitation levels, or precipitation balance, at both the global and latitudinal band scales is a result of offsetting by opposing precipitation changes at the regional scales. Clear opposing precipitation change patterns appeared in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (NHM). Significant increases in precipitation were distributed throughout the western extent of NHM, including the North America, Europe and west of Central Asia, while decreases were observed over the eastern extent, namely, East Asia. A dynamical adjustment methodology was applied to precipitation data, which could identify the roles of atmospheric circulation (dynamic) and the residual (thermodynamic) forcing played in generating the opposing regional precipitation changes in the NHM. Distinct different changes of dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation were found in different regions. Increased precipitation in North America and southern Europe were caused by thermodynamic precipitation, while the dynamic precipitation presented decreased trend due to the positive sea level pressure trend. However, in northern Europe and west of Central Asia, dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation both contributed to the increased precipitation, but thermodynamic precipitation had larger amplitude. In East Asia, the decreased precipitation was a result of simultaneous decrease in dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation.

Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Yann; Joussaume, Sylvie; Bony, Sandrine; Braconnot, Pascale

2016-08-01

Precipitation projections are usually presented as the change in precipitation between a fixed current baseline and a particular time in the future. However, upcoming generations will be affected in a way probably more related to the moving trend in precipitation patterns, i.e. to the rate and the persistence of regional precipitation changes from one generation to the next, than to changes relative to a fixed current baseline. In this perspective, we propose an alternative characterization of the future precipitation changes predicted by general circulation models, focusing on the precipitation difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. We show that in a business-as-usual emission pathway, the moistening and drying rates increase by 30-40 %, both over land and ocean. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more regions exhibit a significant rate of precipitation change, while the patterns become geographically stationary and the trends persistent. The stabilization of the geographical rate patterns that occurs despite the acceleration of global warming can be physically explained: it results from the increasing contribution of thermodynamic processes compared to dynamic processes in the control of precipitation change. We show that such an evolution is already noticeable over the last decades, and that it could be reversed if strong mitigation policies were quickly implemented. The combination of intensification and increasing persistence of precipitation rate patterns may affect the way human societies and natural ecosystems adapt to climate change, especially in the Mediterranean basin, in Central America, in South Asia and in the Arctic.

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, Bjorn H.

2017-04-01

As the global surface temperature changes, so will patterns and rates of precipitation. Theoretically, these changes can be understood in terms of changes to the energy balance of the atmosphere, caused by introducing drivers of climate change such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and altered insolation. Climate models, however, disagree strongly in their prediction of precipitation changes, both for historical and future emission pathways, and per degree of surface warming in idealized experiments. The latter value, often termed the apparent hydrological sensitivity, has also been found to differ substantially between climate drivers. Here, we present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from 10 climate models participating in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3 % per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5 %/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2 %/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. Convective precipitation in the Arctic and large scale precipitation around the Equator are found to be topics where further model investigations and observational constraints may provide rapid improvements to modelling of the precipitation response to future, CO2 dominated climate change.

Assessment of CLIGEN precipitation and storm pattern generation under four precipitation depth categories in China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

CLIGEN (CLImate GENerator) is a widely used stochastic weather generator to simulate continuous daily precipitation and storm pattern information for hydrological and soil erosion models. Although CLIGEN has been tested in several regions in the world, thoroughly assessment before applying it to Chi...

Assessing and quantifying changes in precipitation patterns using event-driven analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Studies have claimed that climate change may adversely affect precipitation patterns by increasing the occurrence of extreme events. The effects of climate change on precipitation is expected to take place over a long period of time and will require long-term data to demonstrate. Frequency analysis ...

Effects of experimental throughfall reduction and soil warming on fine root biomass and its decomposition in a warm temperate oak forest.

PubMed

Liu, Yanchun; Liu, Shirong; Wan, Shiqiang; Wang, Jingxin; Wang, Hui; Liu, Kuan

2017-01-01

Fine root dynamics play a critical role in regulating carbon (C) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Examining responses of fine root biomass and its decomposition to altered precipitation pattern and climate warming is crucial to understand terrestrial C dynamics and its feedback to climate change. Fine root biomass and its decomposition rate were investigated in a warm temperate oak forest through a field manipulation experiment with throughfall reduction and soil warming conducted. Throughfall reduction significantly interacted with soil warming in affecting fine root biomass and its decomposition. Throughfall reduction substantially increased fine root biomass and its decomposition in unheated plots, but negative effects occurred in warmed plots. Soil warming significantly enhanced fine root biomass and its decomposition under ambient precipitation, but the opposite effects exhibited under throughfall reduction. Different responses in fine root biomass among different treatments could be largely attributed to soil total nitrogen (N), while fine root decomposition rate was more depended on microbial biomass C and N. Our observations indicate that decreased precipitation may offset the positive effect of soil warming on fine root biomass and decomposition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Summer precipitation prediction in the source region of the Yellow River using climate indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, F.

2016-12-01

The source region of the Yellow River contributes about 35% of the total water yield in the Yellow River basin playing an important role in meeting downstream water resources requirements. The summer precipitation from June to September in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, and its decrease would cause further water shortage problems. Consequently, the objectives of this study are to improve the understanding of the linkages between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns, and to predict the summer precipitation based on revealed teleconnections. Spatial variability of precipitation was investigated based on three homogeneous sub-regions. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relations between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns using climate indices. A back-propagation neural network was developed to predict the summer precipitation using significantly correlated climate indices. It was found that precipitation in the study area is positively related to North Atlantic Oscillation, West Pacific Pattern and El Nino Southern Oscillation, and inversely related to Polar Eurasian pattern. Summer precipitation was overall well predicted using these significantly correlated climate indices, and the Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and observed summer precipitation was in general larger than 0.6. The results are useful for integrated water resources management in the Yellow River basin.

Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change.

PubMed

Ernakovich, Jessica G; Hopping, Kelly A; Berdanier, Aaron B; Simpson, Rodney T; Kachergis, Emily J; Steltzer, Heidi; Wallenstein, Matthew D

2014-10-01

Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature-limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Guangyao; Zhang, Jianjun; Liu, Yu; Ning, Zheng; Fu, Bojie; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2017-09-01

Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961-2011), showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space-time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i) the effect of precipitation and (ii) the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation-sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events) also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, Charlene N.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Vose, James M.

2016-04-01

Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the impact of the interaction between forest management and precipitation. We use daily long-term data from paired watersheds that have undergone forest harvest or species conversion. We find that interactive effects of climate change, represented by changes in observed precipitation trends, and forest management regime, significantly alter expected streamflow most often during extreme events, ranging from a decrease of 59% to an increase of 40% in streamflow, depending upon management. Our results suggest that vegetation might be managed to compensate for hydrologic responses due to climate change to help mitigate effects of extreme changes in precipitation.

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns

PubMed Central

Fowler, Hayley J.; Kilsby, Christopher G.; Neal, Robert

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Weather‐pattern, or weather‐type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad‐scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather‐pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI‐based drought months. The new weather‐pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation‐based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra‐pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification‐based analyses in the UK. PMID:29456290

Analysis of the interdecadal variability of summer precipitation in central Japan using a reconstructed 106 year long oxygen isotope record from tree ring cellulose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurita, Naoyuki; Nakatsuka, Takeshi; Ohnishi, Keiko; Mitsutani, Takumi; Kumagai, Tomo'omi

2016-10-01

We present a unique proxy for reconstructing the interannual variability of summer precipitation associated with the quasi-stationary front (Baiu front) in central Japan. The rainfall from the Baiu front has a relatively lower oxygen isotopic composition than other types of nonfrontal precipitation. The variability in the oxygen isotopes in summer rainfall is closely related to the Baiu frontal activity. In this study we used a mechanistic tree ring isotope model to reconstruct a 106 year long oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation during the early rainy season (June) based on the oxygen isotopic compositions of the annual rings of Chamaecyparis obtusa Endl trees from central Japan. The year-to-year variations of the isotopes over the most recent 25 years are associated with several teleconnection patterns that often lead to the Baiu precipitation anomalies in central Japan (such as the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern, Silk Road pattern, and wave train pattern along the polar jet). Yet none of these external forcing mechanisms apply further back in time. From the 1950s to 1980s, the interannual isotopic variability is predominantly related to local factors such as anomalous intensification/weakening of the Bonin High. Before the 1950s, the variability of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation is mainly associated with a wave train pattern along the polar jet. The isotopic variability is predominantly linked to the PJ pattern, while the PJ index is correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation. These findings suggest that the teleconnection patterns influencing Baiu precipitation variability vary according to interdecadal time scales during the twentieth century.

Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Ben; Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne

Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is better in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decomposemore » the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO 2 portion and a non-CO 2 portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO 2-/non-CO 2-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.« less

Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models

DOE PAGES

Kravitz, Ben; Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-05-12

Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is better in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decomposemore » the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO 2 portion and a non-CO 2 portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO 2-/non-CO 2-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.« less

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Summer Precipitation in Mexico under the Influence of the MJO, with Emphasis on the Bimodal Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigón, J.; Romero-Centeno, R.; Barrett, B.; Ordoñez-Perez, P.

2017-12-01

In many regions of Mexico, precipitation occurs in a very well defined annual cycle with peaks in May-June and September-October and a relative minimum in the middle of the rainy season known as the midsummer drought (MSD). The MJO is the most important mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, and, although some studies have shown its evident influence on summer precipitation in Mexico, its role in modulating the bimodal pattern of the summer precipitation cycle is still an open question. The spatio-temporal variability of summer precipitation in Mexico is analyzed through composite analysis according to the phases of the MJO, using the very high resolution CHIRPS precipitation data base and gridded data from the CFSR reanalysis to analyzing the MJO influence on the atmospheric circulation over Mexico and its adjacent basins. In general, during MJO phases 8-2 (4-6) rainfall is above-normal (below-normal), although, in some cases, the summer rainfall patterns during the same phase present considerable differences. The atmospheric circulation shows low (high) troposphere southwesterly (northeasterly) wind anomalies in southern Mexico under wetter conditions compared with climatological patterns, while the inverse pattern is observed under drier conditions. Composite anomalies of several variables also agreed well with those rainfall anomalies. Finally, a MJO complete cycle that reinforces (weakens) the bimodal pattern of summer rainfall in Mexico was found.

Exposure and Figure Out of Climate Induced Alterations in the Wetlands of Banglades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddiquee, S. A.; Rahman, M. Z.

2015-12-01

Unique geographic location and geo-morphological conditions of Bangladesh have made the wetlands of this country one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Wetland plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological balance of ecosystems and cultural figures and which occupy around 50% of the area. Drought, excessive temperature, mountain snowfields and glaciers melting, riverbank erosion, salinity intrusion, flashflood, storm surges, higher water temperatures, precipitation anomalies, coastal cyclones, seasonal anomalies and extremes are main threats to the wetland ecosystem. Enhanced UV-B radiation and increased summer precipitation will significantly increase dissolved organic carbon concentrations altering major biogeochemical cycles and also will result into the expansion of range for many invasive aquatic weeds. Generally, rising temperature will lower water quality through a fall in oxygen concentrations, release of phosphorus from sediments, increased thermal stability, and altered mixing patterns. As a result biodiversity is getting degraded, many species of flora and fauna are getting threatened, and wetland-based ecosystem is getting degenerated. At the same time, the living conditions of local people are deteriorating as livelihoods, socioeconomic institutions, and extensive cultural values as well. For conserving and managing wetlands technology, legislation, educational knowledge, action plan strategy and restoration practices are required. In order to address the human needs in the changing climate community-based adaptation approaches and wetland restoration, practices had been taken in almost every type of wetlands in Bangladesh. Therefore, Bangladesh now needs a comprehensive strategy and integrated system combining political, economic, social, technological approaches and institutional supports to address sustainable wetland restoration, conservation and the newly added crisis, climate change.

Climatic Alterations of Wetlands: Conservation and Adaptation Practices in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddiquee, S. A.

2016-02-01

Unique geographic location and geo-morphological conditions of Bangladesh have made the wetlands of this country one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Wetland plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological balance of ecosystems and cultural figures and which occupy around 50% of the area. Drought, excessive temperature, mountain snowfields and glaciers melting, riverbank erosion, salinity intrusion, flashflood, storm surges, higher water temperatures, precipitation anomalies, coastal cyclones, seasonal anomalies and extremes are main threats to the wetland ecosystem. Enhanced UV-B radiation and increased summer precipitation will significantly increase dissolved organic carbon concentrations altering major biogeochemical cycles and also will result into the expansion of range for many invasive aquatic weeds. Generally, rising temperature will lower water quality through a fall in oxygen concentrations, release of phosphorus from sediments, increased thermal stability, and altered mixing patterns. As a result biodiversity is getting degraded, many species of flora and fauna are getting threatened, and wetland-based ecosystem is getting degenerated. At the same time, the living conditions of local people are deteriorating as livelihoods, socioeconomic institutions, and extensive cultural values as well. For conserving and managing wetlands technology, legislation, educational knowledge, action plan strategy and restoration practices are required. In order to address the human needs in the changing climate community-based adaptation approaches and wetland restoration, practices had been taken in almost every type of wetlands in Bangladesh. Therefore, Bangladesh now needs a comprehensive strategy and integrated system combining political, economic, social, technological approaches and institutional supports to address sustainable wetland restoration, conservation and the newly added crisis, climate change.

Are human activities induced runoff change overestimated?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Danwu; Cong, Zhentao

2017-04-01

In the context of climate change, not only does the amount of annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration alter, but also do the seasonal characteristics of climate, such as intra-annual distribution of water and energy. Yet, the runoff change induced by the change in seasonality of climatic forces is seldom evaluated, which is usually thought as the results of human activity, leading to contaminative runoff change attribution results. The past 50-year climatology seasonality was investigated by analyzing the daily meteorological records of 743 national weather stations across the China. Obvious spatial pattern of climatology seasonality emerged in China. The trend analysis indicated that there is decrease in precipitation seasonality, leaving other seasonal characteristics, such as peak time of climate forcing unchanged. With the aid of stochastic soil moisture model, water-energy balance models which take the effects of climate seasonality into consideration are developed. Efforts are made to achieve a better understanding of mean annual runoff change due to the climate change. As a representative of hydrologic responses, the contributions of variations in climate, especially in precipitation seasonality, and land use to runoff change of 282 catchments in China were evaluated. The results showed that the decline of precipitation seasonality has a significant influence on runoff change in the Yellow River, Haihe River and Liaohe River. Meanwhile, it also indicated that the contribution of land use change to runoff change is overestimated by the common runoff change attribution methods.

Modelling the sensitivity of soil mercury storage to climate-induced changes in soil carbon pools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hararuk, O.; Obrist, D.; Luo, Y.

2013-04-01

Substantial amounts of mercury (Hg) in the terrestrial environment reside in soils and are associated with soil organic carbon (C) pools, where they accumulated due to increased atmospheric deposition resulting from anthropogenic activities. The purpose of this study was to examine potential sensitivity of surface soil Hg pools to global change variables, particularly affected by predicted changes in soil C pools, in the contiguous US. To investigate, we included a soil Hg component in the Community Land Model based on empirical statistical relationships between soil Hg / C ratios and precipitation, latitude, and clay; and subsequently explored the sensitivity of soil C and soil Hg densities (i.e., areal-mass) to climate scenarios in which we altered annual precipitation, carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and temperature. Our model simulations showed that current sequestration of Hg in the contiguous US accounted for 15 230 metric tons of Hg in the top 0-40 cm of soils, or for over 300 000 metric tons when extrapolated globally. In the simulations, US soil Hg pools were most sensitive to changes in precipitation because of strong effects on soil C pools, plus a direct effect of precipitation on soil Hg / C ratios. Soil Hg pools were predicted to increase beyond present-day values following an increase in precipitation amounts and decrease following a reduction in precipitation. We found pronounced regional differences in sensitivity of soil Hg to precipitation, which were particularly high along high-precipitation areas along the West and East Coasts. Modelled increases in CO2 concentrations to 700 ppm stimulated soil C and Hg accrual, while increased air temperatures had small negative effects on soil C and Hg densities. The combined effects of increased CO2, increased temperature and increased or decreased precipitation were strongly governed by precipitation and CO2 showing pronounced regional patterns. Based on these results, we conclude that the combination of precipitation and CO2 should be emphasised when assessing how climate-induced changes in soil C may affect sequestration of Hg in soils.

Upstream Freshwater and Terrestrial Sources Are Differentially Reflected in the Bacterial Community Structure along a Small Arctic River and Its Estuary

PubMed Central

Hauptmann, Aviaja L.; Markussen, Thor N.; Stibal, Marek; Olsen, Nikoline S.; Elberling, Bo; Bælum, Jacob; Sicheritz-Pontén, Thomas; Jacobsen, Carsten S.

2016-01-01

Glacier melting and altered precipitation patterns influence Arctic freshwater and coastal ecosystems. Arctic rivers are central to Arctic water ecosystems by linking glacier meltwaters and precipitation with the ocean through transport of particulate matter and microorganisms. However, the impact of different water sources on the microbial communities in Arctic rivers and estuaries remains unknown. In this study we used 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to assess a small river and its estuary on the Disko Island, West Greenland (69°N). Samples were taken in August when there is maximum precipitation and temperatures are high in the Disko Bay area. We describe the bacterial community through a river into the estuary, including communities originating in a glacier and a proglacial lake. Our results show that water from the glacier and lake transports distinct communities into the river in terms of diversity and community composition. Bacteria of terrestrial origin were among the dominating OTUs in the main river, while the glacier and lake supplied the river with water containing fewer terrestrial organisms. Also, more psychrophilic taxa were found in the community supplied by the lake. At the river mouth, the presence of dominant bacterial taxa from the lake and glacier was unnoticeable, but these taxa increased their abundances again further into the estuary. On average 23% of the estuary community consisted of indicator OTUs from different sites along the river. Environmental variables showed only weak correlations with community composition, suggesting that hydrology largely influences the observed patterns. PMID:27708629

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

2015-01-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

2015-01-01

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Pattern transition between periodic Liesegang pattern and crystal growth regime in reaction-diffusion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagzi, István; Ueyama, Daishin

2009-01-01

The pattern transition between periodic precipitation pattern formation (Liesegang phenomenon) and pure crystal growth regimes is investigated in silver nitrate and potassium dichromate system in mixed agarose-gelatin gel. Morphologically different patterns were found depending on the quality of the gel, and transition between these typical patterns can be controlled by the concentration of gelatin in mixed gel. Effect of temperature and hydrodynamic force on precipitation pattern structure was also investigated.

The Relationships between Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST and Northeast Brazil Monthly Precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Repelli, Carlos A.; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Kushnir, Yochanan

1998-04-01

The monthly patterns of northeast Brazil (NEB) precipitation are analyzed in relation to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, using singular value decomposition. It is found that the relationships between precipitation and SST in both basins vary considerably throughout the rainy season (February-May). In January, equatorial Pacific SST is weakly correlated with precipitation in small areas of southern NEB, but Atlantic SST shows no significant correlation with regional precipitation. In February, Pacific SST is not well related to precipitation, but south equatorial Atlantic SST is positively correlated with precipitation over the northern Nordeste, the latter most likely reflecting an anomalously early (or late) southward migration of the ITCZ precipitation zone. During March, equatorial Pacific SST is negatively correlated with Nordeste precipitation, but no consistent relationship between precipitation and Atlantic SST is found. Atlantic SST-precipitation correlations for April and May are the strongest found among all months or either ocean. Precipitation in the Nordeste is positively correlated with SST in the south tropical Atlantic and negatively correlated with SST in the north tropical Atlantic. These relationships are strong enough to determine the structure of the seasonal mean SST-precipitation correlations, even though the corresponding patterns for the earlier months of the season are quite different. Pacific SST-precipitation correlations for April and May are similar to those for March. Extreme wet (dry) years for the Nordeste occur when both Pacific and Atlantic SST patterns for April and May occur simultaneously. A separate analysis reinforces previous findings in showing that SST in the tropical Pacific and the northern tropical Atlantic are positively correlated and that tropical Pacific-south Atlantic correlations are negligible.Time-lagged analyses show the potential for forecasting either seasonal mean or monthly precipitation patterns with some degree of skill. In some instances, individual monthly mean SST versus seasonal mean (February-May) precipitation relationships differ considerably from the corresponding monthly SST versus monthly precipitation relationships. It is argued that the seasonal mean relationships result from the relatively strong monthly relationships toward the end of the season, combined with the considerable persistence of SST in both oceans.

Satellite observations for describing fire patterns and climate-related fire drivers in the Brazilian savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verola Mataveli, Guilherme Augusto; Siqueira Silva, Maria Elisa; Pereira, Gabriel; da Silva Cardozo, Francielle; Shinji Kawakubo, Fernando; Bertani, Gabriel; Cezar Costa, Julio; de Cássia Ramos, Raquel; Valéria da Silva, Viviane

2018-01-01

In the Brazilian savannas (Cerrado biome) fires are natural and a tool for shifting land use; therefore, temporal and spatial patterns result from the interaction of climate, vegetation condition and human activities. Moreover, orbital sensors are the most effective approach to establish patterns in the biome. We aimed to characterize fire, precipitation and vegetation condition regimes and to establish spatial patterns of fire occurrence and their correlation with precipitation and vegetation condition in the Cerrado. The Cerrado was first and second biome for the occurrence of burned areas (BA) and hotspots, respectively. Occurrences are higher during the dry season and in the savanna land use. Hotspots and BA tend to decrease, and concentrate in the north, but more intense hotspots are not necessarily located where concentration is higher. Spatial analysis showed that averaged and summed values can hide patterns, such as for precipitation, which has the lowest average in August, but minimum precipitation in August was found in 7 % of the Cerrado. Usually, there is a 2-3-month lag between minimum precipitation and maximum hotspots and BA, while minimum VCI and maximum hotspots and BA occur in the same month. Hotspots and BA are better correlated with VCI than precipitation, qualifying VCI as an indicator of the susceptibility of vegetation to ignition.

Ranking GCM Estimates of Twentieth Century Precipitation Seasonality in the Western U.S. and its Influence on Floristic Provinces.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Ironside, K.; Cobb, N. S.

2008-12-01

Floristic provinces of the western United States (west of 100W) can be segregated into three regions defined by significant seasonal precipitation during the months of: 1) November-March (Mediterranean); 2) July- September (Monsoonal); or, 3) May-June (Rocky Mountain). This third region is best defined by the absence of the late spring-early summer drought that affects regions 1 and 2. Each of these precipitation regimes is characterized by distinct vegetation types and fire seasonality adapted to that particular cycle of seasonal moisture availability and deficit. Further, areas where these regions blend from one to another can support even more complex seasonal patterns and resulting distinctive vegetation types. As a result, modeling the effects of climates on these ecosystems requires confidence that GCMs can at least approximate these sub- continental seasonal precipitation patterns. We evaluated the late Twentieth Century (1950-1999 AD) estimates of annual precipitation seasonality produced by 22 GCMs contained within the IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4). These modeled estimates were compared to values from the PRISM dataset, extrapolated from station data, over the same historical period for the 3 seasonal periods defined above. The correlations between GCM estimates and PRISM values were ranked using 4 measures: 1) A map pattern relationship based on the correlation coefficient, 2) A map pattern relationship based on the congruence coefficient, 3) The ratio of simulated/observed area averaged precipitation based on the seasonal precipitation amounts, and, 4) The ratio of simulated/observed area averaged precipitation based on the seasonal precipitation percentages of the annual total. For each of the four metrics, the rank order of models was very similar. The ranked order of the performance of the different models quantified aspects of the model performance visible in the mapped results. While some models represented the seasonal patterns very well, others showed little correspondence with the regional patterns, especially for the summer monsoon period. These sub-continental patterns were especially well simulated over this period by the UKMO-HadGEM1, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, and the MRI-CGCM2 model runs.

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Donghai; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Knapp, Alan K.; Wilcox, Kevin; Bahn, Michael; Smith, Melinda D.; Vicca, Sara; Fatichi, Simone; Zscheischler, Jakob; He, Yue; Li, Xiangyi; Ito, Akihiko; Arneth, Almut; Harper, Anna; Ukkola, Anna; Paschalis, Athanasios; Poulter, Benjamin; Peng, Changhui; Ricciuto, Daniel; Reinthaler, David; Chen, Guangsheng; Tian, Hanqin; Genet, Hélène; Mao, Jiafu; Ingrisch, Johannes; Nabel, Julia E. S. M.; Pongratz, Julia; Boysen, Lena R.; Kautz, Markus; Schmitt, Michael; Meir, Patrick; Zhu, Qiuan; Hasibeder, Roland; Sippel, Sebastian; Dangal, Shree R. S.; Sitch, Stephen; Shi, Xiaoying; Wang, Yingping; Luo, Yiqi; Liu, Yongwen; Piao, Shilong

2018-06-01

Field measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest that both positive and negative asymmetric responses to changes in precipitation (P) may occur. Under normal range of precipitation variability, wet years typically result in ANPP gains being larger than ANPP declines in dry years (positive asymmetry), whereas increases in ANPP are lower in magnitude in extreme wet years compared to reductions during extreme drought (negative asymmetry). Whether the current generation of ecosystem models with a coupled carbon-water system in grasslands are capable of simulating these asymmetric ANPP responses is an unresolved question. In this study, we evaluated the simulated responses of temperate grassland primary productivity to scenarios of altered precipitation with 14 ecosystem models at three sites: Shortgrass steppe (SGS), Konza Prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU), spanning a rainfall gradient from dry to moist. We found that (1) the spatial slopes derived from modeled primary productivity and precipitation across sites were steeper than the temporal slopes obtained from inter-annual variations, which was consistent with empirical data; (2) the asymmetry of the responses of modeled primary productivity under normal inter-annual precipitation variability differed among models, and the mean of the model ensemble suggested a negative asymmetry across the three sites, which was contrary to empirical evidence based on filed observations; (3) the mean sensitivity of modeled productivity to rainfall suggested greater negative response with reduced precipitation than positive response to an increased precipitation under extreme conditions at the three sites; and (4) gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) all showed concave-down nonlinear responses to altered precipitation in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. Our results indicated that most models overestimate the negative drought effects and/or underestimate the positive effects of increased precipitation on primary productivity under normal climate conditions, highlighting the need for improving eco-hydrological processes in those models in the future.

Is atmospheric phosphorus pollution altering global alpine Lake stoichiometry?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brahney, Janice; Mahowald, Natalie; Ward, Daniel S.; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Neff, Jason C.

2015-09-01

Anthropogenic activities have significantly altered atmospheric chemistry and changed the global mobility of key macronutrients. Here we show that contemporary global patterns in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) emissions drive large hemispheric variation in precipitation chemistry. These global patterns of nutrient emission and deposition (N:P) are in turn closely reflected in the water chemistry of naturally oligotrophic lakes (r2 = 0.81, p < 0.0001). Observed increases in anthropogenic N deposition play a role in nutrient concentrations (r2 = 0.20, p < 0.05) however, atmospheric deposition of P appears to be major contributor to this pattern (r2 = 0.65, p < 0.0001). Atmospheric simulations indicate a global increase in P deposition by 1.4 times the preindustrial rate largely due to increased dust and biomass burning emissions. Although changes in the mass flux of global P deposition are smaller than for N, the impacts on primary productivity may be greater because, on average, one unit of increased P deposition has 16 times the influence of one unit of N deposition. These stoichiometric considerations, combined with the evidence presented here, suggest that increases in P deposition may be a major driver of alpine Lake trophic status, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. These results underscore the need for the broader scientific community to consider the impact of atmospheric phosphorus deposition on the water quality of naturally oligotrophic lakes.

Historic role of fire in determining annual water yield from Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Ward W. McCaughey; Phillip E. Farnes; Katherine J. Hansen

1997-01-01

Water production from mountain watersheds depends on total precipitation input, the type and distribution of precipitation, the amount intercepted in tree canopies, and losses to evaporation, transpiration and groundwater. A systematic process was developed to estimate historic average annual runoff based on fire patterns, habitat cover types and precipitation patterns...

Primary Productivity and Precipitation-Use Efficiency in Temperate Grassland in the Loess Plateau of China

PubMed Central

Jia, Xiaoxu; Xie, Baoni; Shao, Ming’an; Zhao, Chunlei

2015-01-01

Clarifying spatial variations in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation-use efficiency (PUE) of grasslands is critical for effective prediction of the response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon and water cycle to future climate change. Though the combination use of remote sensing products and in situ ANPP measurements, we quantified the effects of climatic [mean annual precipitation (MAP) and precipitation seasonal distribution (PSD)], biotic [leaf area index (LAI)] and abiotic [slope gradient, aspect, soil water storage (SWS) and other soil physical properties] factors on the spatial variations in ANPP and PUE across different grassland types (i.e., meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe) in the Loess Plateau. Based on the study, ANPP increased exponentially with MAP for the entire temperate grassland; suggesting that PUE increased with increasing MAP. Also PSD had a significant effect on ANPP and PUE; where more even PSD favored higher ANPP and PUE. Then MAP, more than PSD, explained spatial variations in typical steppe and desert steppe. However, PSD was the dominant driving factor of spatial variations in ANPP of meadow steppe. This suggested that in terms of spatial variations in ANPP of meadow steppe, change in PSD due to climate change was more important than that in total annual precipitation. LAI explained 78% of spatial PUE in the entire Loess Plateau temperate grassland. As such, LAI was the primary driving factor of spatial variations in PUE. Although the effect of SWS on ANPP and PUE was significant, it was nonetheless less than that of precipitation and vegetation. We therefore concluded that changes in vegetation structure and consequently in LAI and/or altered pattern of seasonal distribution of rainfall due to global climate change could significantly influence ecosystem carbon and water cycle in temperate grasslands. PMID:26295954

Primary Productivity and Precipitation-Use Efficiency in Temperate Grassland in the Loess Plateau of China.

PubMed

Jia, Xiaoxu; Xie, Baoni; Shao, Ming'an; Zhao, Chunlei

2015-01-01

Clarifying spatial variations in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation-use efficiency (PUE) of grasslands is critical for effective prediction of the response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon and water cycle to future climate change. Though the combination use of remote sensing products and in situ ANPP measurements, we quantified the effects of climatic [mean annual precipitation (MAP) and precipitation seasonal distribution (PSD)], biotic [leaf area index (LAI)] and abiotic [slope gradient, aspect, soil water storage (SWS) and other soil physical properties] factors on the spatial variations in ANPP and PUE across different grassland types (i.e., meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe) in the Loess Plateau. Based on the study, ANPP increased exponentially with MAP for the entire temperate grassland; suggesting that PUE increased with increasing MAP. Also PSD had a significant effect on ANPP and PUE; where more even PSD favored higher ANPP and PUE. Then MAP, more than PSD, explained spatial variations in typical steppe and desert steppe. However, PSD was the dominant driving factor of spatial variations in ANPP of meadow steppe. This suggested that in terms of spatial variations in ANPP of meadow steppe, change in PSD due to climate change was more important than that in total annual precipitation. LAI explained 78% of spatial PUE in the entire Loess Plateau temperate grassland. As such, LAI was the primary driving factor of spatial variations in PUE. Although the effect of SWS on ANPP and PUE was significant, it was nonetheless less than that of precipitation and vegetation. We therefore concluded that changes in vegetation structure and consequently in LAI and/or altered pattern of seasonal distribution of rainfall due to global climate change could significantly influence ecosystem carbon and water cycle in temperate grasslands.

Miscible viscous fingering with chemical reaction involving precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, Si-Kyun; Nagatsu, Yuichiro; Kato, Yoshihito; Tada, Yutaka

2007-11-01

When a reactive and miscible less-viscous liquid displaces a more-viscous liquid in a Hele-Shaw cell, reactive miscible viscous fingering takes place. The present study has experimentally examined how precipitation produced by chemical reaction affects miscible viscous fingering pattern. A 97 wt % glycerin solution containing iron(III) nitrate (yellow) and a solution containing potassium hexacyano ferrate(II) (colorless) were used as the more- and less-viscous liquids, respectively. In this case, the chemical reaction instantaneously takes place and produces the precipitation being dark blue in color. The experiments were done by varying reactant concentrations, the cell's gap width, and the displacement speed. We compared the patterns involving the precipitation reaction with those in the non-reactive cases. We have found fylfot-like pattern is observed, depending on the experimental condition, which has never been formed in the non-reactive experiments. As the reactant concentrations are increased or the displacement speed is decreased, the effects of the precipitation on the patterns are more pronounced.

Successional change in species composition alters climate sensitivity of grassland productivity.

PubMed

Shi, Zheng; Lin, Yang; Wilcox, Kevin R; Souza, Lara; Jiang, Lifen; Jiang, Jiang; Jung, Chang Gyo; Xu, Xia; Yuan, Mengting; Guo, Xue; Wu, Liyou; Zhou, Jizhong; Luo, Yiqi

2018-05-31

Succession theory predicts altered sensitivity of ecosystem functions to disturbance (i.e., climate change) due to the temporal shift in plant community composition. However, empirical evidence in global change experiments is lacking to support this prediction. Here, we present findings from an 8-year long-term global change experiment with warming and altered precipitation manipulation (double and halved amount). First, we observed a temporal shift in species composition over 8 years, resulting in a transition from an annual C 3 -dominant plant community to a perennial C 4 -dominant plant community. This successional transition was independent of any experimental treatments. During the successional transition, the response of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) to precipitation addition magnified from neutral to +45.3%, while the response to halved precipitation attenuated substantially from -17.6% to neutral. However, warming did not affect ANPP in either state. The findings further reveal that the time-dependent climate sensitivity may be regulated by successional change in species composition, highlighting the importance of vegetation dynamics in regulating the response of ecosystem productivity to precipitation change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drought consistently alters the composition of soil fungal and bacterial communities in grasslands from two continents.

PubMed

Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Collins, Scott L; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Hamonts, Kelly; Pockman, William T; Sinsabaugh, Robert L; Smith, Melinda D; Knapp, Alan K; Power, Sally A

2018-03-05

The effects of short-term drought on soil microbial communities remain largely unexplored, particularly at large scales and under field conditions. We used seven experimental sites from two continents (North America and Australia) to evaluate the impacts of imposed extreme drought on the abundance, community composition, richness, and function of soil bacterial and fungal communities. The sites encompassed different grassland ecosystems spanning a wide range of climatic and soil properties. Drought significantly altered the community composition of soil bacteria and, to a lesser extent, fungi in grasslands from two continents. The magnitude of the fungal community change was directly proportional to the precipitation gradient. This greater fungal sensitivity to drought at more mesic sites contrasts with the generally observed pattern of greater drought sensitivity of plant communities in more arid grasslands, suggesting that plant and microbial communities may respond differently along precipitation gradients. Actinobateria, and Chloroflexi, bacterial phyla typically dominant in dry environments, increased their relative abundance in response to drought, whereas Glomeromycetes, a fungal class regarded as widely symbiotic, decreased in relative abundance. The response of Chlamydiae and Tenericutes, two phyla of mostly pathogenic species, decreased and increased along the precipitation gradient, respectively. Soil enzyme activity consistently increased under drought, a response that was attributed to drought-induced changes in microbial community structure rather than to changes in abundance and diversity. Our results provide evidence that drought has a widespread effect on the assembly of microbial communities, one of the major drivers of soil function in terrestrial ecosystems. Such responses may have important implications for the provision of key ecosystem services, including nutrient cycling, and may result in the weakening of plant-microbial interactions and a greater incidence of certain soil-borne diseases. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Environmental parameters altered by climate change affect the activity of soil microorganisms involved in bioremediation.

PubMed

Alkorta, Itziar; Epelde, Lur; Garbisu, Carlos

2017-10-16

Bioremediation, based on the use of microorganisms to break down pollutants, can be very effective at reducing soil pollution. But the climate change we are now experiencing is bound to have an impact on bioremediation performance, since the activity and degrading abilities of soil microorganisms are dependent on a series of environmental parameters that are themselves being altered by climate change, such as soil temperature, moisture, amount of root exudates, etc. Many climate-induced effects on soil microorganisms occur indirectly through changes in plant growth and physiology derived from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures, the alteration of precipitation patterns, etc., with a concomitant effect on rhizoremediation performance (i.e. the plant-assisted microbial degradation of pollutants in the rhizosphere). But these effects are extremely complex and mediated by processes such as acclimation and adaptation. Besides, soil microorganisms form complex networks of interactions with a myriad of organisms from many taxonomic groups that will also be affected by climate change, further complicating data interpretation. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Do biofilms and clays alter the chemistry and fabric of a hyper-alklaine, saline, non-marine carbonate precipitate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogerson, Michael; Saunders, Paul; Mercedes-Martin, Ramon; Brasier, Alex; Pedley, Martyn

2015-04-01

Non-marine carbonates comprise a hugely diverse family of deposits, which reflect a constellation of forcing factors from local hydraulics to regional climatology. However, the two dominant controls on precipitation are solution chemistry and benthic microbial biogeochemistry. Here, we present a unifying concept for understanding how these controls influence deposit characteristics, and re-emphasise the importance of biofilms. It is generally accepted that biofilms play an important part in the precipitation of authigenic minerals in a wide variety of settings. In carbonate settings, biofilms are recognised to increase the amount of calcite precipitation and alter the geometry and coarse scale petrography of the precipitate. They determine at what water marginal water chemistries calcite starts to precipitate and microbialites give way to chemical limestones. Biofilms also interact with ambient water, controlling chemical accumulation transport. New evidence, drawn from unique experimental approaches, is demonstrating that biofilm influence extends to control of calcite trace element composition, and crystal scale fabric. Under tightly controlled temperature and chemical conditions, fully replicated experiments show that Mg incorporation into tufa carbonate defies the expected thermodynamic control. However, there is a pronounced influence on (Mg/Ca)calcite from precipitation rate, so that rapidly forming precipitates develop with very low magnesium content indicating kinetic control on fractionation. Calcite precipitation rate in these experiments is controlled by biofilm growth rate and reflects kinetic fractionation arises from the electrochemical activity of extracellular organic acids. These effects are therefore likely to occur wherever these molecules occur, including stromatolites, soil and lake carbonates and (via colloidal organic acids) speleothems. The presence of Extracellular polymeric substances (EPS), even without the presence of cells, also alters precipitation style. Spherular and shrubby calcite growths are well known from the geological record, but their environmental significance is not clear. Sterile, microcosm experiments have shown that these forms occur in saline, hyperalkaline settings ' but only in the presence of organic acid molecules in solution. The presence of inorganic materials (hydrated magnesium clays) does not impact on precipitate morphology, and reduces the precipitation rate of calcite.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuping; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

2018-04-01

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961-2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures: (1) the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern, (2) the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea (BLOS) pattern, and (3) the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea (ECNOS) pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.

Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Coe, Kirsten K.; Sparks, Jed P.; Housman, David C.; Zelikova, Tamara J.; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2 mm summer rainfall events reduced moss cover from ~25% of total surface cover to <2% after only one growing season, whereas increased temperature had no effect. Laboratory measurements identified a physiological mechanism behind the mortality: small precipitation events caused a negative moss carbon balance, whereas larger events maintained net carbon uptake. Multiple metrics of nitrogen cycling were notably different with moss mortality and had significant implications for soil fertility. Mosses are important members in many dryland ecosystems and the community changes observed here reveal how subtle modifications to climate can affect ecosystem structure and function on unexpectedly short timescales. Moreover, mortality resulted from increased precipitation through smaller, more frequent events, underscoring the importance of precipitation event size and timing, and highlighting our inadequate understanding of relationships between climate and ecosystem function in drylands.

Decadal variability of precipitation over Western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Diaz, Henry F.; Graham, N.E.

1998-01-01

Decadal (>7- yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation 'modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate proceses. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.Decadal (>7-yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation `modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate processes. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.

Psychological stress declines rapidly from age 50 in the United States: Yet another well-being paradox.

PubMed

Stone, Arthur A; Schneider, Stefan; Broderick, Joan E

2017-12-01

Although there is evidence that evaluative subjective well-being (e.g., life satisfaction) shows a U-shaped pattern with highest satisfaction in the youngest and oldest years and lowest in the middle years of adulthood, much less is known about experiential well-being. We explore a negative indicator of experiential well-being (perceived stress), examine its association with age, and explore possible determinants of the age pattern. Using Gallup-Healthways survey data of over 1.5 million U.S. respondents, we analyzed a question asking about stress yesterday and demographic determinants of the pattern. To confirm this pattern, data on stress was analyzed from the American Time Use Survey and data on distress was analyzed from the Health and Retirement Survey. We show that ratings of daily, perceived stressfulness yield a paradox, with high levels from the 20's through about age 50, followed by a precipitous decline through the 70's. Data from the other two surveys confirmed the age pattern for stress. Regressions with the Gallup-Healthways data statistically controlled several third-variables, yet none substantially altered the pattern. We argue that this new experiential well-being pattern informs us about aging in the US and the "paradox" calls out for explanation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Soil Texture Often Exerts a Stronger Influence Than Precipitation on Mesoscale Soil Moisture Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Jingnuo; Ochsner, Tyson E.

2018-03-01

Soil moisture patterns are commonly thought to be dominated by land surface characteristics, such as soil texture, at small scales and by atmospheric processes, such as precipitation, at larger scales. However, a growing body of evidence challenges this conceptual model. We investigated the structural similarity and spatial correlations between mesoscale (˜1-100 km) soil moisture patterns and land surface and atmospheric factors along a 150 km transect using 4 km multisensor precipitation data and a cosmic-ray neutron rover, with a 400 m diameter footprint. The rover was used to measure soil moisture along the transect 18 times over 13 months. Spatial structures of soil moisture, soil texture (sand content), and antecedent precipitation index (API) were characterized using autocorrelation functions and fitted with exponential models. Relative importance of land surface characteristics and atmospheric processes were compared using correlation coefficients (r) between soil moisture and sand content or API. The correlation lengths of soil moisture, sand content, and API ranged from 12-32 km, 13-20 km, and 14-45 km, respectively. Soil moisture was more strongly correlated with sand content (r = -0.536 to -0.704) than with API for all but one date. Thus, land surface characteristics exhibit coherent spatial patterns at scales up to 20 km, and those patterns often exert a stronger influence than do precipitation patterns on mesoscale spatial patterns of soil moisture.

Analysis of Synoptic Weather Types and Its Influence on Precipitation in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltaci, H.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Karaca, M.

2012-04-01

In this study, we investigated the relationship between synoptic weather types and rainfall patterns in the Marmara region, northwestern part of Turkey. For this purpose, the automated Lamb weather type classification method was applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily mean sea level pressure data for the period between 2001 and 2010. Ten synoptic weather types were found that represent the 90% of the synoptic patterns that affect the Marmara region. Based on the annual frequency analysis, mainly six synoptic weather types, 24% (NorthEast), 21% (North), 11% (South), 9% (SouthWest), 7% (Anticyclonic), 5% (Cyclonic), were found dominant in the region. Multiple comparison tests suggest that (i.e., Bonferroni test) northerly patterns (i.e., North and NorthEast) have statistically significantly higher percentages as compared to the southerly (i.e., South and SouthWest) and the rest of the patterns (i.e., Anticylonic and Cylonic). During winter months, N- and NE-patterns observed less frequently than the annual frequencies of them, 18% and 13% of the period, respectively. On the other hand, due to the formation of the low pressure center located over the central Mediterranean Sea, S- and SW-patterns were observed more frequently than their annual mean frequencies, 16% and 17%, respectively. During summer months, N- and NE-patterns become dominant in the region, and they constitute about three quarters of the period, 25% and 44%, respectively. The low pressure center located over central Anatolia and Black Sea brings moist and cool air to the region, preventing excessive heating during the summer season. Cyclonic patterns observed less frequent during the winter and fall months, about 3%. They become more frequent during the summer season, 9% as a result of the shifting of the subtropical jet stream to the south, and the seasonal movement of the Basra low pressure toward the inner and northern parts of the Anatolian peninsula. On the other hand, Anticyclonic patterns are more common in the fall season 11% due to the expansion of spatial extent of the anticyclone center located over the Caspian Sea. Daily precipitation records for the period of between 2001 and 2010 belong to 14 meteorological stations in the region were investigated to understand the influence of synoptic weather types on precipitation. Based on daily precipitation records, about one-third of the NE-patterns result in precipitation which is slightly larger than patterns from other directions. The corresponding values for SW-, N- and S-patterns are 29%, 25% and 25%, respectively. Northerly patterns (N and NE) causes more frequent precipitation on the northern and eastern parts of the region. On the other hand, southerly patterns (S and SW) are more influential and cause more frequent precipitation on the south and northwestern parts of the region. Therefore, frequency of synoptic weather types and daily precipitation records suggest that precipitation regimes are of a different nature in northern and southern parts of the Marmara region. Keywords Synoptic weather types; Marmara Region; Lamb classification; Rainfall patterns

Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; ...

2015-12-18

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change.more » Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. Lastly, by examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.« less

Spatiotemporal Variance of Global Horizontal Moisture Transport and the Influence of Strong ENSO Events Using ERA-Interim Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutta, E. J.; Hubbart, J. A.; Svoma, B. M.; Eichler, T. P.; Lupo, A. R.

2016-12-01

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented as a leading source of seasonal to inter-annual variations in global weather and climate. Strong ENSO events have been shown to alter the location and magnitude of Hadley and Walker circulations that maintain equilibrium at tropical latitudes and regulate moisture transport into mid-latitude storm tracks. Broad impacts associated with ENSO events include anomalous regional precipitation (ARP) and temperature patterns and subsequent impacts to socioeconomic and human health systems. Potential socioeconomic and human health impacts range from regional changes in water resources and agricultural productivity to local storm water management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. Evidence is mounting to suggest that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency of heavy precipitation events, which compounds impacts of ARP patterns associated with strong El Nino events. Therefore, the need exists to identify common regional patterns of spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture flux (HMF) during months (Oct-Feb) associated with the peak intensity (Oceanic Nino Index [ONI]) of the three strongest El Nino (ONI > µ + 2σ) and La Nina (ONI < µ - σ) events occurring between January 1979 and June 2016. ERA-Interim reanalysis output on model levels was used to quantify spatial and temporal covariance of HMF at 6-hourly resolution before taking the density weighted vertical average. Long term means (LTM; 1979-2015) were quantified and the influence of strong ENSO events was assessed by quantifying deviations from the LTM for each respective covariance property during months associated with the selected ENSO events. Results reveal regions of statistically significant (CI = 0.05) differences from the LTM for the vertically integrated HMF and each covariance quantity. Broader implications of this work include potential for improved seasonal precipitation forecasts at regional scales and subsequent improvements to local water resource management. There is potential for future work objectively comparing these results with output from Earth System Models to improve representation of ENSO's influence on spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture transport.

Climate change alters diffusion of forest pest: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Woo Seong; Kim, Hwang-Yong; Kim, Beom Jun

2017-01-01

Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information such as temperature, precipitation, and the density of pine trees. Our simulation leads to a pest spreading pattern comparable to the real data for pine needle gall midge in the past. We also simulate the model in two different climate conditions based on two different representative concentration pathways scenarios for the future. We observe that after an initial stage of a slow spread of pests, a sudden change in the spreading speed occurs, which is soon followed by a large-scale outbreak. We found that a future climate change causes the outbreak point to occur earlier and that the detailed spatio-temporal pattern of the spread depends on the source position from which the initial pest infection starts.

Interdecadal Change in the Tropical Pacific Precipitation Anomaly Pattern around the Late 1990s during Boreal Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Zhiping; Guo, Yuanyuan; Wu, Renguang

2017-04-01

The leading mode of boreal spring precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s. The pattern before 1998 features positive precipitation anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific (EP) with positive principle component years. The counterpart after 1998 exhibits a westward shift of the positive center to the equatorial central Pacific (CP). Observational evidence shows that this interdecadal change in the leading mode of precipitation variability is closely associated with a distinctive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. The westward shift of the anomalous precipitation center after 1998 is in tandem with a similar shift of maximum warming from the EP to CP. Diagnostic analyses based on a linear equation of the mixed layer temperature anomaly exhibit that an interdecadal enhancement of zonal advection (ZA) feedback process plays a vital role in the shift in the leading mode of both the tropical Pacific SST and the precipitation anomaly during spring. Moreover, the variability of the anomalous zonal current at the upper ocean dominates the ZA feedback change, while the mean zonal SST gradient associated with a La Niña-like pattern of the mean state only accounts for a relatively trivial proportion of the ZA feedback change. It was found that both the relatively rapid decaying of the SST anomalies in the EP and the La Niña-like mean state make it conceivable that the shift of the leading mode of the tropical precipitation anomaly only occurs in spring. In addition, the largest variance of the anomalous zonal current in spring might contribute to the unique interdecadal change in the tropical spring precipitation anomaly pattern.

Comparative analysis of near-present and future synoptic conditions and their contribution to precipitation in central Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karacostas, Theodore S.; Bampzelis, Dimitrios; Karipidou, Symela; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Kartsios, Stergios; Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Pakalidou, Nikoletta

2015-04-01

The objective on this study is to identify and categorize the daily synoptic circulation patterns encountered between the two periods, in near-present (2001-2010) and future (2041-2050), over the greater area of central and northern Greece, under the "DAPHNE" project (www.daphne-meteo.gr). The followed up statistical analyses and comparisons are focus on the demonstration of the differences in the frequency of occurrences of the synoptic situations between the two time periods, aiming at mitigating drought in central Greece by means of Weather Modification. Actually, within the context of the project, the daily synoptic circulation patterns encountered during the near-present ten-year period are identified and classified according to Karacostas et al. (1992) synoptic classification, into ten distinct synoptic conditions, based on the isobaric level of 500hPa. A similar procedure is adopted for the future period 2041-2050, by developing the mid-tropospheric synoptic circulation patterns through the RegCM3 regional climate model, under the IPCC scenario A1B. Results indicate that certain differences exist between near-present and future frequency distribution of occurrences of the synoptic situations over the study area. The northwest (NW) and southwest (SW) synoptic circulation patterns remain the most frequent synoptic conditions observed for both examined periods. The low pressure system activity over the area exhibit significant decrease during the future period, as it is depicted from the inter-comparison of the frequencies of the closed low (L-2) and cut-off low (L-3) systems. On the other hand, the unorganized synoptic conditions, which are mostly identified as high-low patterns (H-L), appear to increase considerably. The frequencies of zonal flow (ZON) and those of synoptic conditions associated with the presence of high-pressure system over the area, that is (H-1) and (H-2), remain almost unchanged between the two periods. The impact of the aforementioned differences in the frequencies of the synoptic conditions during the future period is examined on a yearly and seasonal basis. The contribution of each synoptic condition on the annual precipitation amounts are estimated for the near-present period, which coupled with the altered frequencies of the synoptic conditions for the future period, result to the future projected annual precipitation amounts. Possible decrease in precipitation amounts is indicated during the future period, as a result of the reduction in the frequencies of certain synoptic conditions associated with high amount of precipitation during the near-present conditions. Acknowledgments: This research work is part of DAPHNE project (11SYN_8_1088_TPE) which is co-funded by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek National Funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Enterpreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013).

Atmospheric turbulence triggers pronounced diel pattern in karst carbonate geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, M.; Serrano-Ortiz, P.; Kowalski, A. S.; Goddéris, Y.; Sánchez-Cañete, E. P.; Ciais, P.; Domingo, F.; Cuezva, S.; Sanchez-Moral, S.; Longdoz, B.; Yakir, D.; Van Grieken, R.; Schott, J.; Cardell, C.; Janssens, I. A.

2013-07-01

CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is key to understanding the feedbacks between climate change and the land surface. In regions with carbonaceous parent material, CO2 exchange patterns occur that cannot be explained by biological processes, such as disproportionate outgassing during the daytime or nighttime CO2 uptake during periods when all vegetation is senescent. Neither of these phenomena can be attributed to carbonate weathering reactions, since their CO2 exchange rates are too small. Soil ventilation induced by high atmospheric turbulence is found to explain atypical CO2 exchange between carbonaceous systems and the atmosphere. However, by strongly altering subsurface CO2 concentrations, ventilation can be expected to influence carbonate weathering rates. By imposing ventilation-driven CO2 outgassing in a carbonate weathering model, we show here that carbonate geochemistry is accelerated and does play a surprisingly large role in the observed CO2 exchange pattern of a semi-arid ecosystem. We found that by rapidly depleting soil CO2 during the daytime, ventilation disturbs soil carbonate equilibria and therefore strongly magnifies daytime carbonate precipitation and associated CO2 production. At night, ventilation ceases and the depleted CO2 concentrations increase steadily. Dissolution of carbonate is now enhanced, which consumes CO2 and largely compensates for the enhanced daytime carbonate precipitation. This is why only a relatively small effect on global carbonate weathering rates is to be expected. On the short term, however, ventilation has a drastic effect on synoptic carbonate weathering rates, resulting in a pronounced diel pattern that exacerbates the non-biological behavior of soil-atmosphere CO2 exchanges in dry regions with carbonate soils.

Synoptic moisture pathways associated with mean and extreme precipitation over Canada for winter and spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y. Y.; Chen, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Dominant synoptic moisture pathway patterns of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) in winter and spring over Canada West and East were identified using the self-organizing map method. Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) were related to the variability in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Changes in both occurrences of LSMPs and seasonal precipitation occurred under those LSMPs were evaluated to attribute observed changes in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Effects of large-scale climate anomalies on occurrences of LSMPs were also examined. Results show that synoptic moisture pathways and LSMPs exhibit the propagation of jet streams as the location and direction of ridges and troughs, and the strength and center of pressure lows and highs varied considerably between LSMPs. Significant decreases in occurrences of synoptic moisture pathway patterns that are favorable with positive precipitation anomalies and more precipitation extremes in winter over Canada West resulted in decreases in seasonal precipitation and occurrences of precipitation extremes. LSMPs resulting in a hot and dry climate and less (more) frequent precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies in winter and northwestern Canada in spring are more likely to occur in years with a negative phase of PNA. Occurrences of LSMPs for a wet climate and frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Canada are associated with a positive phase of NAO. In El Niño years or negative PDO years, LSMPs associated with a dry climate and less frequent precipitation extremes over western Canada tend to occur.

Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation inferred from streamflow observations across the Sierra Nevada mountain range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Newman, Andrew J.; Hughes, Mimi; McGurk, Bruce; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2018-01-01

Given uncertainty in precipitation gauge-based gridded datasets over complex terrain, we use multiple streamflow observations as an additional source of information about precipitation, in order to identify spatial and temporal differences between a gridded precipitation dataset and precipitation inferred from streamflow. We test whether gridded datasets capture across-crest and regional spatial patterns of variability, as well as year-to-year variability and trends in precipitation, in comparison to precipitation inferred from streamflow. We use a Bayesian model calibration routine with multiple lumped hydrologic model structures to infer the most likely basin-mean, water-year total precipitation for 56 basins with long-term (>30 year) streamflow records in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. We compare basin-mean precipitation derived from this approach with basin-mean precipitation from a precipitation gauge-based, 1/16° gridded dataset that has been used to simulate and evaluate trends in Western United States streamflow and snowpack over the 20th century. We find that the long-term average spatial patterns differ: in particular, there is less precipitation in the gridded dataset in higher-elevation basins whose aspect faces prevailing cool-season winds, as compared to precipitation inferred from streamflow. In a few years and basins, there is less gridded precipitation than there is observed streamflow. Lower-elevation, southern, and east-of-crest basins show better agreement between gridded and inferred precipitation. Implied actual evapotranspiration (calculated as precipitation minus streamflow) then also varies between the streamflow-based estimates and the gridded dataset. Absolute uncertainty in precipitation inferred from streamflow is substantial, but the signal of basin-to-basin and year-to-year differences are likely more robust. The findings suggest that considering streamflow when spatially distributing precipitation in complex terrain may improve its representation, particularly for basins whose orientations (e.g., windward-facing) are favored for orographic precipitation enhancement.

Contemporary Model Fidelity over the Maritime Continent: Examination of the Diurnal Cycle, Synoptic, Intraseasonal and Seasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranowski, D.; Waliser, D. E.; Jiang, X.

2016-12-01

One of the key challenges in subseasonal weather forecasting is the fidelity in representing the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC). In reality both propagating and non-propagating MJO events are observed, but in numerical forecast the latter group largely dominates. For this study, comprehensive model performances are evaluated using metrics that utilize the mean precipitation pattern and the amplitude and phase of the diurnal cycle, with a particular focus on the linkage between a model's local MC variability and its fidelity in representing propagation of the MJO and equatorial Kelvin waves across the MC. Subseasonal to seasonal variability of mean precipitation and its diurnal cycle in 20 year long climate simulations from over 20 general circulation models (GCMs) is examined to benchmark model performance. Our results show that many models struggle to represent the precipitation pattern over complex Maritime Continent terrain. Many models show negative biases of mean precipitation and amplitude of its diurnal cycle; these biases are often larger over land than over ocean. Furthermore, only a handful of models realistically represent the spatial variability of the phase of the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Models tend to correctly simulate the timing of the diurnal maximum of precipitation over ocean during local solar time morning, but fail to acknowledge influence of the land, with the timing of the maximum of precipitation there occurring, unrealistically, at the same time as over ocean. The day-to-day and seasonal variability of the mean precipitation follows observed patterns, but is often unrealistic for the diurnal cycle amplitude. The intraseasonal variability of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation is mainly driven by model's ability (or lack of) to produce eastward propagating MJO-like signal. Our results show that many models tend to decrease apparent air-sea contrast in the mean precipitation and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns over the Maritime Continent. As a result, the complexity of those patterns is heavily smoothed, to such an extent in some models that the Maritime Continent features and imprint is almost unrecognizable relative to the eastern Indian Ocean or Western Pacific.

The Evolution of Tropical Precipitation Patterns During ENSO Events Using 21+ Years of GPCP Merged Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert

2000-01-01

The ENSO phenomenon is characterized by fluctuations in the climate system of the tropical Pacific. Quantifying changes in the precipitation component of this system is important in understanding the distribution of heating in the atmosphere which drives the large-scale circulation and affects the weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Monitoring precipitation anomalies in the Pacific is also an important component for tracking the evolution of ENSO. The most timely and complete observations of the earth come from satellite instruments. In this study, the state of the art satellite-gauge merged monthly precipitation data set from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to depict tropical rainfall patterns during ENSO events over the past two decades and quantify these patterns using indices. This analysis will be complemented by daily precipitation data which can resolve the Madden-Julian Oscillation and westerly wind burst events. The 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina were the best observed ENSO cycle in the historic record. Prior to the El Nino (in terms of anomalous warming of the east Pacific) dry anomalies over the Maritime Continent were observed in February 1997 as a westerly wind burst advected convection to the east. The largest SST anomalies occurred around November-December 1997, which were followed by the largest precipitation anomalies in the beginning of 1998. The largest precipitation departures from normal were not colocated with the SST anomalies, but were further west, In the spring of 1998 negative precipitation anomalies to the north of the equator intensified, signaling the mature phase of the El Nino. A rapid increase in the precipitation-based La Nina index from December-January 1998 to March-April 1998 signaled the coming La Nina. The 1982-1983 El Nino was comparable in strength (according to several indices) and the precipitation patterns evolved in a similar fashion. For the 1998-2000 La Nina, the coldest anomalies, were confined to the central equatorial Pacific, while the driest anomalies were found in the west Pacific,

Deep Soil Recharge in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: New Evidences in MU-US Sandy Land of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Yang, W.; Zhan, H.

2017-12-01

Precipitation induced recharge is an important source of groundwater budget but it is very difficult to quantify in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, a newly invented lysimeter was used to monitor deep soil recharge (DSR) under 200 cm depth in MU-US sandy land in western China under three kinds of landforms (mobile dune, semi-fixed dune, and fixed dune). We found that the annual DSRs in such three different kinds of landforms varied significantly. Specifically, the annual DSRs were 224.1 mm (50.5% of the annual precipitation), 71.1 mm (50.5% of the annual precipitation), and 1.3 mm (0.3% of the annual precipitation) in mobile dune, semi-fixed dune, and fixed dune, respectively. We also found that vegetation coverage and precipitation pattern significantly affected DSR. A 24-hr precipitation event with the precipitation amount greater than 8 mm was able to infiltrate soil deeper than 200 cm and contributed to ground water recharge directly. Vegetation was a dominant factor influencing infiltration in the fixed sand dune. Our research revealed that precipitation induced DSR in arid and semi-arid regions was a complex process that required long-term monitoring and innovative system analysis of interrelated factors such as precipitation strength and pattern, meteorological parameters, and dynamic soil moisture. Key words: Precipitation pattern, sand dune groundwater, deep soil recharge, infiltration.

Development of observed precipitation and meteorological database to understand the wet deposition and dispersion processes in March 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yatagai, Akiyo; Watanabe, Akira; Ishihara, Masahito; Ishihara, Hirohiko; Takara, Kaoru

2014-05-01

The transport and diffusion of the radioactive pollutants from the Fukushima-Daiichi NPP inthe atmosphere caused a disaster for residents in and around Fukushima. Studies have sought to understand the transport, diffusion, and deposition process, and to understand the movement of radioactive pollutants through the soil, vegetation, rivers, and groundwater. However, a detailed simulation and understanding of the distribution of radioactive compounds depend on a simulation of precipitation and on the information on the timing of the emission of these radioactive pollutants from the NPP. Further, precipitation type and its amount affect the various transport process of the radioactive nuclides. Hence, this study first examine the qualitative precipitation pattern and timing in March 2011 using X-band radar data from Fukushima University and three dimensional C-band radar data network of Japan Meteorological Agency. Second, by collecting rain-gauge network and other surface meteorological data, we estimate quantitative precipitation and its type (rain/snow) according to the same method used to create APHRODITE daily grid precipitation (Yatagai et al., 2012) and judge of rain/snow (Yasutomi et al., 2011). For example, the data clarified that snowfall was observed on the night of Mar 15 into the morning of Mar 16 throughout Fukushima prefecture. This had an important effect on the radioactive contamination pattern in Fukushima prefecture. The precipitation pattern itself does not show one-on-one correspondence with the contamination pattern. While the pollutants transported northeast of the NPP and through north Kanto (about 200 km southwest of Fukushima and, 100 km north of Tokyo) went to the northeast, the timing of the precipitation causing the fallout, i.e., wet-deposition, is important. Although the hourly Radar-AMeDAS 1-km-mesh precipitation data of JMA are available publically, it does not represent the precipitation pattern in Nakadori, in central Fukushima prefecture. Hence, we used 10-minute interval X-band radar, located in north Nakadori to determine the start and detailed horizontal pattern (120-m mesh) of the precipitation. The developed precipitation and other meteorological dataset will be released to the project Fukushima-IRIS site (http://firis.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp, or linked from http://center.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp/member/akiyoyatagai/). The project aims to make a database to understand the initial meteorological condition. Various useful sites with meteorological data and other physical information on March 2011 have already linked at the site. This project is being supported by the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University.

Oxygen isotope constraints on the alteration temperatures of CM chondrites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdier-Paoletti, Maximilien J.; Marrocchi, Yves; Avice, Guillaume; Roskosz, Mathieu; Gurenko, Andrey; Gounelle, Matthieu

2017-01-01

We report a systematic oxygen isotopic survey of Ca-carbonates in nine different CM chondrites characterized by different degrees of alteration, from the least altered known to date (Paris, 2.7-2.8) to the most altered (ALH 88045, CM1). Our data define a continuous trend that crosses the Terrestrial Fractionation Line (TFL), with a general relationship that is indistinguishable within errors from the trend defined by both matrix phyllosilicates and bulk O-isotopic compositions of CM chondrites. This bulk-matrix-carbonate (BMC) trend does not correspond to a mass-dependent fractionation (i.e., slope 0.52) as it would be expected during fluid circulation along a temperature gradient. It is instead a direct proxy of the degree of O-isotopic equilibration between 17,18O-rich fluids and 16O-rich anhydrous minerals. Our O-isotopic survey revealed that, for a given CM, no carbonate is in O-isotopic equilibrium with its respective surrounding matrix. This precludes direct calculation of the temperature of carbonate precipitation. However, the O-isotopic compositions of alteration water in different CMs (inferred from isotopic mass-balance calculation and direct measurements) define another trend (CMW for CM Water), parallel to BMC but with a different intercept. The distance between the BMC and CMW trends is directly related to the temperature of CM alteration and corresponds to average carbonates and serpentine formation temperatures of 110 °C and 75 °C, respectively. However, carbonate O-isotopic variations around the BMC trend indicate that they formed at various temperatures ranging between 50 and 300 °C, with 50% of the carbonates studied here showing precipitation temperature higher than 100 °C. The average Δ17O and the average carbonate precipitation temperature per chondrite are correlated, revealing that all CMs underwent similar maximum temperature peaks, but that altered CMs experienced protracted carbonate precipitation event(s) at lower temperatures than the least altered CMs. Our data suggest that the Δ17O value of Ca-carbonates could be a reliable proxy of the degree of alteration experienced by CM chondrites.

Impacts of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration patterns on downscaling soil moisture in regions with large topographic relief

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowley, Garret S.; Niemann, Jeffrey D.; Green, Timothy R.; Seyfried, Mark S.; Jones, Andrew S.; Grazaitis, Peter J.

2017-02-01

Soil moisture can be estimated at coarse resolutions (>1 km) using satellite remote sensing, but that resolution is poorly suited for many applications. The Equilibrium Moisture from Topography, Vegetation, and Soil (EMT+VS) model downscales coarse-resolution soil moisture using fine-resolution topographic, vegetation, and soil data to produce fine-resolution (10-30 m) estimates of soil moisture. The EMT+VS model performs well at catchments with low topographic relief (≤124 m), but it has not been applied to regions with larger ranges of elevation. Large relief can produce substantial variations in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), which might affect the fine-resolution patterns of soil moisture. In this research, simple methods to downscale temporal average precipitation and PET are developed and included in the EMT+VS model, and the effects of spatial variations in these variables on the surface soil moisture estimates are investigated. The methods are tested against ground truth data at the 239 km2 Reynolds Creek watershed in southern Idaho, which has 1145 m of relief. The precipitation and PET downscaling methods are able to capture the main features in the spatial patterns of both variables. The space-time Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of efficiency of the fine-resolution soil moisture estimates improve from 0.33 to 0.36 and 0.41 when the precipitation and PET downscaling methods are included, respectively. PET downscaling provides a larger improvement in the soil moisture estimates than precipitation downscaling likely because the PET pattern is more persistent through time, and thus more predictable, than the precipitation pattern.

A new pattern of the moisture transport for precipitation related to the drastic decline in Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimeno-Sotelo, Luis; Nieto, Raquel; Vázquez, Marta; Gimeno, Luis

2018-05-01

In this study we use the term moisture transport for precipitation for a target region as the moisture coming to this region from its major moisture sources resulting in precipitation over the target region (MTP). We have identified changes in the pattern of moisture transport for precipitation over the Arctic region, the Arctic Ocean, and its 13 main subdomains concurrent with the major sea ice decline that occurred in 2003. The pattern consists of a general decrease in moisture transport in summer and enhanced moisture transport in autumn and early winter, with different contributions depending on the moisture source and ocean subregion. The pattern is statistically significant and consistent with changes in the vertically integrated moisture fluxes and frequency of circulation types. The results of this paper also reveal that the assumed and partially documented enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes as a consequence of increased moisture from climate change seems to be less simple and constant than typically recognised in relation to enhanced Arctic precipitation throughout the year in the present climate.

Alteration and formation of rims on the CM parent body

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Browning, Lauren B.; Mcsween, Harry Y., Jr.; Zolensky, Michael

1994-01-01

All types of coarse-grained components in CM chondrites are surrounded by fine-grained dust coatings, but the origin of these rims is not yet clear. Although a strictly nebular origin seems likely for rims in the relatively unaltered type 3 chondrites, the rims in CM chondrites are dominated by secondary alteration phases. It has been argued that either the coarse-grained cores accreted altered rim materials while still in the nebula or that alteration of primary rim phases occurred on the CM parent body. To constrain the origin of alteration phases in rim material, we have analyzed the textures and mineral associations from 10 CM chondritic falls by optical and scanning electron microscopy. Our results indicate that the secondary phases in CM chondritic rims were produced by parent body fluid-rock interactions which redefined some primary rim textures and may have produced, in some cases, both coarse-grained components and the rims that surround them. Textural features demonstrate the interactive exchange of alteration fluids between rims, matrix, and chondrules on the CM parent body. For example, most matrix-rim contacts are gradational, suggesting the synchronous alteration of both components. Several observations suggest the possibility of in situ rim production. For example, tochilinite and phyllosilicates commonly form rims around matrix carbonates, which are generally believed to have precipitated from alteration fluids on the CM parent body. This suggests that the rims surrounding matrix carbonates may also have been produced by alteration processes. Partially replaced chondrule olivines bear a striking resemblance to many rimmed olivines in the matrix which suggests, by analogy, that site-specific precipitation of S-bearing phases may also be responsible for the occurrence of many tochilinite-rich rims around isolated matrix olivines. Non-silicate rims precipitate around olivines of any composition, but the process is most effective for fayalitic olivines. Most of the remaining olivines in CM chondrites are relatively Mg-rich, which suggests that the precipitation of S-bearing rims on olivines may not have been an important process in the aqueous alteration of CM chondrites. We conclude that: (1) precursor rim materials in CM chondrites were subjected to pervasive aqueous alteration on the CM parent body; and (2) textures and mineral associations observed in CM chondrites also suggest the possibility of in situ rim production.

C₃ and C₄ plant responses to increased temperatures and altered monsoonal precipitation in a cool desert on the Colorado Plateau, USA.

PubMed

Wertin, Timothy M; Reed, Sasha C; Belnap, Jayne

2015-04-01

Dryland ecosystems represent >40% of the terrestrial landscape and support over two billion people; consequently, it is vital to understand how drylands will respond to climatic change. However, while arid and semiarid ecosystems commonly experience extremely hot and dry conditions, our understanding of how further temperature increases or altered precipitation will affect dryland plant communities remains poor. To address this question, we assessed plant physiology and growth at a long-term (7-year) climate experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA, where the community is a mix of shallow-rooted C3 and C4 grasses and deep-rooted C4 shrubs. The experiment maintained elevated-temperature treatments (+2 or +4 °C) in combination with altered summer monsoonal precipitation (+small frequent precipitation events or +large infrequent events). Increased temperature negatively affected photosynthesis and growth of the C3 and C4 grasses, but effects varied in their timing: +4 °C treatments negatively affected the C3 grass early in the growing season of both years, while the negative effects of temperature on the C4 grass were seen in the +2 and +4 °C treatments, but only during the late growing season of the drier year. Increased summer precipitation did not affect photosynthesis or biomass for any species, either in the year the precipitation was applied or the following year. Although previous research suggests dryland plants, and C4 grasses in particular, may respond positively to elevated temperature, our findings from a cool desert show marked declines in C3 and C4 photosynthesis and growth, with temperature effects dependent on the degree of warming and growing-season precipitation.

C3 and C4 plant responses to increased temperatures and altered monsoonal precipitation in a cool desert on the Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wertin, Timothy M.; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

Dryland ecosystems represent >40 % of the terrestrial landscape and support over two billion people; consequently, it is vital to understand how drylands will respond to climatic change. However, while arid and semiarid ecosystems commonly experience extremely hot and dry conditions, our understanding of how further temperature increases or altered precipitation will affect dryland plant communities remains poor. To address this question, we assessed plant physiology and growth at a long-term (7-year) climate experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA, where the community is a mix of shallow-rooted C3 and C4 grasses and deep-rooted C4 shrubs. The experiment maintained elevated-temperature treatments (+2 or +4 °C) in combination with altered summer monsoonal precipitation (+small frequent precipitation events or +large infrequent events). Increased temperature negatively affected photosynthesis and growth of the C3 and C4 grasses, but effects varied in their timing: +4 °C treatments negatively affected the C3 grass early in the growing season of both years, while the negative effects of temperature on the C4 grass were seen in the +2 and +4 °C treatments, but only during the late growing season of the drier year. Increased summer precipitation did not affect photosynthesis or biomass for any species, either in the year the precipitation was applied or the following year. Although previous research suggests dryland plants, and C4 grasses in particular, may respond positively to elevated temperature, our findings from a cool desert show marked declines in C3 and C4 photosynthesis and growth, with temperature effects dependent on the degree of warming and growing-season precipitation.

Evidence of Mineral Dust Altering Cloud Microphysics and Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Min, Qilong; Li, Rui; Lin, Bing; Joseph, Everette; Wang, Shuyu; Hu, Yongxiang; Morris, Vernon; Chang, F.

2008-01-01

Multi-platform and multi-sensor observations are employed to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective systems. It is clearly evident that for a given convection strength,small hydrometeors were more prevalent in the stratiform rain regions with dust than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust sector, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation process of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the precipitation size spectrum from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately suppressing precipitation.

Precipitation alters plastic film mulching impacts on soil respiration in an arid area of northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ming, Guanghui; Hu, Hongchang; Tian, Fuqiang; Peng, Zhenyang; Yang, Pengju; Luo, Yiqi

2018-05-01

Plastic film mulching (PFM) has widely been used around the world to save water and improve crop yield. However, the effect of PFM on soil respiration (Rs) remains unclear and could be further confounded by irrigation and precipitation. To address these topics, controlled experiments were conducted in mulched and non-mulched fields under drip irrigation from 2014 to 2016 in an arid area of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, northwest China. The spatio-temporal pattern of soil surface CO2 flux as an index of soil respiration under drip irrigation with PFM was investigated, and the confounded effects of PFM and irrigation/precipitation on soil respiration were explored. The main findings were as follows. (1) Furrows, planting holes, and plastic mulch are three important pathways of soil CO2 emissions in mulched fields, of which the planting hole efflux outweighs that from the furrow, with the largest values of 8.0 and 6.6 µmol m-2 s-1, respectively, and the plastic mulch itself can emit up to 3.6 µmol m-2 s-1 of CO2. (2) The frequent application of water (i.e. through irrigation and precipitation) elevates soil moisture and soil respiration and enhances their variation. The resultant higher variation of soil moisture further alleviates the sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, leading to a weak correlation and lower Q10 values. (3) Soil CO2 effluxes from furrows and ridges in mulched fields outweigh the corresponding values in non-mulched fields in arid areas. However, this outweighing relation attenuates with increasing precipitation. Furthermore, by combining our results with those from the literature, we show that the difference in soil CO2 effluxes between non-mulched and mulched fields presents a linear relation with the amount of precipitation, which results in negative values in arid areas and positive values in humid areas. Therefore, whether PFM increases soil respiration or not depends on the amount of precipitation during the crop-growing season.

Plant Functional Group Composition Modifies the Effects of Precipitation Change on Grassland Ecosystem Function

PubMed Central

Fry, Ellen L.; Manning, Pete; Allen, David G. P.; Hurst, Alex; Everwand, Georg; Rimmler, Martin; Power, Sally A.

2013-01-01

Temperate grassland ecosystems face a future of precipitation change, which can alter community composition and ecosystem functions through reduced soil moisture and waterlogging. There is evidence that functionally diverse plant communities contain a wider range of water use and resource capture strategies, resulting in greater resistance of ecosystem function to precipitation change. To investigate this interaction between composition and precipitation change we performed a field experiment for three years in successional grassland in southern England. This consisted of two treatments. The first, precipitation change, simulated end of century predictions, and consisted of a summer drought phase alongside winter rainfall addition. The second, functional group identity, divided the plant community into three groups based on their functional traits- broadly described as perennials, caespitose grasses and annuals- and removed these groups in a factorial design. Ecosystem functions related to C, N and water cycling were measured regularly. Effects of functional groupidentity were apparent, with the dominant trend being that process rates were higher under control conditions where a range of perennial species were present. E.g. litter decomposition rates were significantly higher in plots containing several perennial species, the group with the highest average leaf N content. Process rates were also very strongly affected by the precipitation change treatmentwhen perennial plant species were dominant, but not where the community contained a high abundance of annual species and caespitose grasses. This contrasting response could be attributable to differing rooting patterns (shallower structures under annual plants, and deeper roots under perennials) and faster nutrient uptake in annuals compared to perennials. Our results indicate that precipitation change will have a smaller effect on key process rates in grasslandscontaining a range of perennial and annual species, and that maintaining the presence of key functional groups should be a crucial consideration in future grassland management. PMID:23437300

Effects of soil dry-wet cycles and nitrogen fertilization on soil nitrous oxide emission: Simulation using the DNDC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, D.; Chen, H.; Deng, Q.; Wang, G.; Schadt, C. W.

2017-12-01

The major source of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) is from croplands. A rapid pulse response of soil N2O emission to precipitation (PPT) is often reported, especially after a drought period. However, how precipitation pattern (i.e. frequency) and intensity, and nitrogen (N) fertilization would interactively influence soil N2O emission has not been well investigated. In this modeling study, we took advantage of a validated biogeochemical model (DNDC) in a cornfield and simulated soil N2O emission under manipulated precipitation treatments and three levels (Low, medium and high) of N application rate. The PPT treatments included precipitation pattern (from very frequent, to medium, and rare dry-wet cycles without changes in total annual precipitation) and intensity (from ambient, to -50%, +50%, and +100% ambient precipitation without changes in precipitation pattern). Results showed that both precipitation pattern and intensity, as well as nitrogen application rate had significant influences on the pulse responses and annual soil N2O emission. Very frequent dry-wet cycles tended to increase soil N2O emission while long drought-wet cycles had lower soil N2O emission, but the timing of N fertilization and precipitation also played an important role in the magnitude of pulse response and annual budget of N2O emission. As expected, soil N2O emission was higher under the high N application and lower under the low N application rate. Double precipitation (+100%) had the highest soil N2O emission, but showed no significant differences with +50% and ambient precipitation. The drought (-50%) treatment significantly reduced soil N2O emission. Annual soil N2O emission could be described as N2O=-6.7436+0.1098N+0.0049PPT, R2=0.86. Our results demonstrate that not only the intensity and pattern of precipitation greatly influence soil N2O emission, but also the timing of rainfall and N fertilization may play an important role in soil N2O pulse responses and annual N2O emission in cornfields. These modeling approaches inform our future work to deploy automated gas flux systems to validate and monitor these rapid N2O responses in the field.

Hydrothermal alteration in oceanic ridge volcanics: A detailed study at the Galapagos Fossil Hydrothermal Field

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ridley, W.I.; Perfit, M.R.; Josnasson, I.R.; Smith, M.F.

1994-01-01

The Galapagos Fossil Hydrothermal Field is composed of altered oceanic crust and extinct hydrothermal vents within the eastern Galapagos Rift between 85??49???W and 85??55???W. The discharge zone of the hydrothermal system is revealed along scarps, thus providing an opportunity to examine the uppermost mineralized, and highly altered interior parts of the crust. Altered rocks collected in situ by the submersible ALVIN show complex concentric alteration zones. Microsamples of individual zones have been analysed for major/minor, trace elements, and strontium isotopes in order to describe the complex compositional details of the hydrothermal alteration. Interlayered chlorite-smectite and chlorite with disequilibrium compositions dominate the secondary mineralogy as replacement phases of primary glass and acicular pyroxene. Phenocrysts and matrix grains of plagioclase are unaffected during alteration. Using a modification of the Gresens' equation we demonstrate that the trivalent rare earth elements (REEs) are relatively immobile, and calculate degrees of enrichment and depletion in other elements. Strontium isotopic ratios increase as Sr concentrations decrease from least-altered cores to most-altered rims and cross-cutting veins in individual samples, and can be modeled by open system behaviour under low fluid-rock ratio (< 10) conditions following a period of lower-temperature weathering of volcanics within the rift zone. The complex patterns of element enrichment and depletion and strontium isotope variations indicate mixing between pristine seawater and ascending hot fluids to produce a compositional spectrum of fluids. The precipitation of base-metal sulfides beneath the seafloor is probably a result of fluid mixing and cooling. If, as suggested here, the discharge zone alteration occurred under relatively low fluid-rock ratios, then this shallow region must play an important role in determining the exit composition of vent fluids in marine hydrothermal systems. ?? 1994.

Influence of Precipitation Regime on Microbial Decomposition Patterns in Semi-Arid Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feris, K. P.; Jilek, C.; Huber, D. P.; Reinhardt, K.; deGraaff, M.; Lohse, K.; Germino, M.

2011-12-01

In water-limited semi-arid sagebrush steppe ecosystems predicted changes in climate may manifest as a shift from historically winter/snow-dominated precipitation regimes to one dominated by spring rains. In these ecosystems soil microorganisms play a vital role in linking the effects of water availability and plant productivity to biogeochemical cycling. Patterns of soil microbial catalyzed organic matter decomposition patters (i.e. patterns of extracellular enzyme activity (EEA)) are thought to depend upon the quantity and quality of soil organic matter (SOM), pH, and mean annual precipitation (Sinsabaugh, 2008), and less on the timing and magnitude of precipitation. However, sagebrush-steppe plant communities respond strongly to changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation, and preliminary findings by our group suggest that corresponding changes in SOM quantity, quality, N-cycle dynamics, and soil structure are occurring. Therefore, we hypothesized: 1) Shifts in the timing and magnitude of precipitation would indirectly affect soil microbial decomposition patterns via responses in the plant community structure; and 2) Changes in precipitation patterns can directly affect soil microbial community structure and function, in effect uncoupling the interaction between plant community structure and soil community structure. We tested our hypotheses by determining the influence of experimentally manipulated timing and magnitude of precipitation on soil microbial EEA using standard flourometric assays in soils sampled under plant canopies and plant interspaces. We assessed this response in a mature (18 + years) ecohydrologic field experiment in eastern Idaho that annually imitates three possible post climatic-shift precipitation regimes (Ambient (AMB): no additional precipitation, ~200mm annually; Summer (SUMM): 200mm provisioned at 50mm bi-weekly starting in June; and Fall/Spring (F/S): 200mm provisioned over 1-2 weeks in October or April) (n=3). Within plant interspaces Beta glucosaminide activity increased by 18% in treatments receiving additional F/S precipitation, whereas alpha glucopyranoside activity was lower in the F/S and SUMM plots. Conversely, underplant canopies alpha glucopyranoside activity increased by 15% in the SUMM and F/S precipitation treatments. Across treatments and sampling types (i.e. plant canopy vs. interspace), cellobioside activity levels are consistently elevated in response to additional precipitation compared to those of the control plots. When coupled with recent preliminary findings by our group regarding changes in plant and microbial community structure and SOM, C-storage, and soil structural responses, these preliminary findings suggest that 1) microbial community structure and function respond both directly and indirectly to changes in climate, and 2) thus provide a mechanism for changes in plant community structure to feed-forward to affect soil carbon decomposition patterns and ultimately soil carbon storage potential.

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

2010-01-01

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

Kinetic Fractionation of Stable Isotopes in Carbonates on Mars: Terrestrial Analogs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Socki, Richard A.; Gibson, Everett K., Jr.; Golden, D. C.; Ming, Douglas W.; McKay, Gordon A.

2003-01-01

An ancient Martian hydrosphere consisting of an alkali-rich ocean would likely produce solid carbonate minerals through the processes of evaporation and/or freezing. We postulate that both (or either) of these kinetically-driven processes would produce carbonate minerals whose stable isotopic compositions are highly fractionated (enriched) with respect to the source carbon. Various scenarios have been proposed for carbonate formation on Mars, including high temperature formation, hydrothermal alteration, precipitation from evaporating brines, and cryogenic formation. 13C and 18O -fractionated carbonates have previously been shown to form kinetically under some of these conditions, ie.: 1) alteration by hydrothermal processes, 2) low temperature precipitation (sedimentary) from evaporating bicarbonate (brine) solutions, and 3) precipitation during the process of cryogenic freezing of bicarbonate-rich fluids. Here we examine several terrestrial field settings within the context of kinetically controlled carbonate precipitation where stable isotope enrichments have been observed.

Links between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and recent trends in European winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Joyce, Terrence

2015-04-01

European precipitation has sustained robust trends during wintertime (January - March) over recent decades. Central, western, and northern Europe have become wetter by an average 0.1-0.3% per annum for the period 1901-2010, while southern Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, much of Italy and the Balkan States, has sustained drying of -0.2% per annum or more over the same period. The overall pattern is consistent across different observational precipitation products, while the magnitude of the precipitation trends varies amongst data sets. Using cluster analysis, which identifies recurrent states (or regimes) of European winter precipitation by grouping them according to an objective similarity criterion, changes in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns over the past century are evaluated. Considerable multi-decadal variability exists in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns: more recent decades are characterised by significantly fewer winters with anomalous wet conditions over southern, western, and central Europe. In contrast, winters with dry conditions in western and southern Europe, but above-average rainfall in western Scandinavia and the northern British Isles, have been more common recently. We evaluate the associated multi-decadal large-scale circulation changes across the broader extratropical North Atlantic region, which accompany the observed wintertime precipitation variability using the 20th Century reanalysis product. Some influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is apparent in modulating the frequency of dominant precipitation patterns. However, recent trends in the characteristics of atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic sector indicate a change in the dominant blocking centres (near Greenland, the British Isles, and west of the Iberian Peninsula). Associated changes in sea level pressure, storm track position and strength, and oceanic heat fluxes across the North Atlantic region are also addressed.

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric

1999-01-01

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krummel, J.R.; Markin, J.B.; O'Neill, R.V.

Regional analyses of the interaction between human populations and natural resources must integrate landscape scale environmental problems. An approach that considers human culture, environmental processes, and resource needs offers an appropriate methodology. With this methodology, we analyze problems of food availability in African cattle-keeping societies. The analysis interrelates cattle biomass, forage availability, milk and blood production, crop yields, gathering, food subsidies, population, and variable precipitation. While an excess of cattle leads to overgrazing, cattle also serve as valuable food storage mechanisms during low rainfall periods. Food subsidies support higher population levels but do not alter drought-induced population fluctuations. Variable precipitationmore » patterns require solutions that stabilize year-to-year food production and also address problems of overpopulation.« less

Areal and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation Patterns In Slovakia Using Spectral Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pishvaei, M. R.

Harmonic analysis as an objective method of precipitation seasonality studying is ap- plied to the 1901-2000 monthly precipitation averages at five stations in the low-land part of Slovakia with elevation less than 800 m a.s.l. The significant harmonics of long-term precipitation series have been separately computed for eight 30-year peri- ods, which cover the 20th century and some properties and the variations are com- pared to 100-year monthly precipitation averages. The selected results show that the first and the second harmonics pre-dominantly influence on the annual distribution and climatic seasonal regimes of pre-cipitation that contribute to the precipitation am- plitude/pattern with about 20% and 10%, respectively. These indicate annual and half year variations. The rest harmon-ics often have each less than 5% contribution on the Fourier interpolation course. Maximum in yearly precipitation course, which oc- curs approximately at the begin-ning of July, because of phase changing shifts then to the middle of June. Some probable reasons regarding to Fourier components are discussed. In addition, a tem-poral analysis over precipitation time series belonging to the Hurbanovo Observa-tory as the longest observational series on the territory of Slovakia (with 130-year precipitation records) has been individually performed and possible meteorological factors responsible for the observed patterns are suggested. A comparison of annual precipitation course obtained from daily precipitation totals analysis and polynomial trends with Fourier interpolation has been done too. Daily precipitation data in the latest period are compared for some stations in Slovakia as well. Only selected results are pre-sented in the poster.

Using Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Detect and Attribute Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.; Mankin, J. S.

2015-12-01

Because of the high cost of extreme events and the growing evidence that global warming is likely to alter the statistical distribution of climate variables, detection and attribution of changes in the probability of extreme climate events has become a pressing topic for the scientific community, elected officials, and the public. While most of the emphasis has thus far focused on analyzing the climate variable of interest (most often temperature or precipitation, but also flooding and drought), there is an emerging emphasis on applying detection and attribution analysis techniques to the underlying physical causes of individual extreme events. This approach is promising in part because the underlying physical causes (such as atmospheric circulation patterns) can in some cases be more accurately represented in climate models than the more proximal climate variable (such as precipitation). In addition, and more scientifically critical, is the fact that the most extreme events result from a rare combination of interacting causes, often referred to as "ingredients". Rare events will therefore always have a strong influence of "natural" variability. Analyzing the underlying physical mechanisms can therefore help to test whether there have been changes in the probability of the constituent conditions of an individual event, or whether the co-occurrence of causal conditions cannot be distinguished from random chance. This presentation will review approaches to applying detection/attribution analysis to the underlying physical causes of extreme events (including both "thermodynamic" and "dynamic" causes), and provide a number of case studies, including the role of frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the probability of hot, cold, wet and dry events.

Unchanged carbon balance driven by equivalent responses of production and respiration to climate change in a mixed-grass prairie.

PubMed

Xu, Xia; Shi, Zheng; Chen, Xuecheng; Lin, Yang; Niu, Shuli; Jiang, Lifen; Luo, Ruiseng; Luo, Yiqi

2016-05-01

Responses of grassland carbon (C) cycling to climate change and land use remain a major uncertainty in model prediction of future climate. To explore the impacts of global change on ecosystem C fluxes and the consequent changes in C storage, we have conducted a field experiment with warming (+3 °C), altered precipitation (doubled and halved), and annual clipping at the end of growing seasons in a mixed-grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA, from 2009 to 2013. Results showed that although ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary production (GPP) negatively responded to warming, net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) did not significantly change under warming. Doubled precipitation stimulated and halved precipitation suppressed ER and GPP equivalently, with the net outcome being unchanged in NEE. These results indicate that warming and altered precipitation do not necessarily have profound impacts on ecosystem C storage. In addition, we found that clipping enhanced NEE due to a stronger positive response of GPP compared to ER, indicating that clipping could potentially be an effective land practice that could increase C storage. No significant interactions between warming, altered precipitation, and clipping were observed. Meanwhile, we found that belowground net primary production (BNPP) in general was sensitive to climate change and land use though no significant changes were found in NPP across treatments. Moreover, negative correlations of the ER/GPP ratio with soil temperature and moisture did not differ across treatments, highlighting the roles of abiotic factors in mediating ecosystem C fluxes in this grassland. Importantly, our results suggest that belowground C cycling (e.g., BNPP) could respond to climate change with no alterations in ecosystem C storage in the same period. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Precipitation thresholds and drought-induced tree die-off: insights from patterns of Pinus edulis mortality along an environmental stress gradient.

PubMed

Clifford, Michael J; Royer, Patrick D; Cobb, Neil S; Breshears, David D; Ford, Paulette L

2013-10-01

Recent regional tree die-off events appear to have been triggered by a combination of drought and heat - referred to as 'global-change-type drought'. To complement experiments focused on resolving mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality, an evaluation of how patterns of tree die-off relate to highly spatially variable precipitation is needed. Here, we explore precipitation relationships with a die-off event of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis Engelm.) in southwestern North America during the 2002-2003 global-change-type drought. Pinyon die-off and its relationship with precipitation was quantified spatially along a precipitation gradient in north-central New Mexico with standard field plot measurements of die-off combined with canopy cover derived from normalized burn ratio (NBR) from Landsat imagery. Pinyon die-off patterns revealed threshold responses to precipitation (cumulative 2002-2003) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), with little to no mortality (< 10%) above 600 mm and below warm season VPD of c. 1.7 kPa. [Correction added after online publication 17 June 2013; in the preceding sentence, the word 'below' has been inserted.] Our results refine how precipitation patterns within a region influence pinyon die-off, revealing a precipitation and VPD threshold for tree mortality and its uncertainty band where other factors probably come into play - a response type that influences stand demography and landscape heterogeneity and is of general interest, yet has not been documented. © 2013 No claim to US Government works. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Functional Connectivity of Precipitation Networks in the Brazilian Rainforest-Savanna Transition Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

2016-12-01

In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, vegetation change has the potential to significantly affect precipitation patterns. Deforestation, in particular, can affect precipitation patterns by increasing land surface albedo, increasing aerosol loading to the atmosphere, changing land surface roughness, and reducing transpiration. Understanding land surface-precipitation couplings in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching and agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between precipitation and land cover. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect precipitation patterns. We take an empirical approach to ask: (1) what are the dominant spatial and temporal length scales of precipitation coupling in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? (2) How do these length scales change over time? (3) How does the connectivity of precipitation change over time? The answers to these questions will help address fundamental questions about the impacts of deforestation on precipitation. We use rain gauge data from 1100 rain gauges intermittently covering the period 1980 - 2013, a period of intensive land cover change in the region. The dominant spatial and temporal length scales of precipitation coupling are resolved using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory. Connectivity of the emergent network of couplings is quantified using network statistics. Analyses using transfer entropy and network statistics reveal the spatial and temporal interdependencies of rainfall events occurring in different parts of the study domain.

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.

1998-01-01

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation variations in the southern parts of western North America and are closely related to the first EOF. Central latitude of precipitation moves south (north) with tropical warming (cooling) in association with midlatitude western Pacific SLP variations, on both interannual and decadal timescales. Regional patterns and zonal averages of precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series are used to corroborate these patterns and to extend them into the past and appear to share much long- and short-term information with the instrumentally based zonal precipitation EOFs and moments.The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25?? to 55 ??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both tim

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

How consistent are precipitation patterns predicted by GCMs in the absence of cloud radiative effects?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popke, Dagmar; Bony, Sandrine; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-04-01

Model simulations with state-of-the-art general circulation models reveal a strong disagreement concerning the simulated regional precipitation patterns and their changes with warming. The deviating precipitation response even persists when reducing the model experiment complexity to aquaplanet simulation with forced sea surface temperatures (Stevens and Bony, 2013). To assess feedbacks between clouds and radiation on precipitation responses we analyze data from 5 models performing the aquaplanet simulations of the Clouds On Off Klima Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE), where the interaction of clouds and radiation is inhibited. Although cloud radiative effects are then disabled, the precipitation patterns among models are as diverse as with cloud radiative effects switched on. Disentangling differing model responses in such simplified experiments thus appears to be key to better understanding the simulated regional precipitation in more standard configurations. By analyzing the local moisture and moist static energy budgets in the COOKIE experiments we investigate likely causes for the disagreement among models. References Stevens, B. & S. Bony: What Are Climate Models Missing?, Science, 2013, 340, 1053-1054

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE PAGES

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

2017-11-15

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

Historical and Future Projected Hydrologic Extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing body of evidence from observed data that climate variability combined with regional climate change has had a significant impact on hydrologic cycles, including both seasonal patterns of runoff and altered hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods and extreme stormwater events). To better understand changing patterns of extreme high flows in Midwest and Great Lakes region, we analyzed long-term historical observations of peak streamflow at different gaging stations. We also conducted hydrologic model experiments using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) at 1/16 degree resolution in order to explore sensitivity of annual peak streamflow, both historically and under temperature and precipitation changes for several future periods. For future projections, the Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling approach applied to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison, Phase5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios was used to produce driving data for the VIC hydrologic model. Preliminary results for several test basins in the Midwest support the hypothesis that there are consistent and statistically significant changes in the mean annual flood starting before and after about 1975. Future projections using hydrologic model simulations support the hypothesis of higher peak flows due to warming and increasing precipitation projected for the 21st century. We will extend this preliminary analysis using observed data and simulations from 40 river basins in the Midwest to further test these hypotheses.

Allergenic pollen season variations in the past two decades under changing climate in the United States

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Mi, Zhongyuan; Cai, Ting; Robock, Alan; Georgopoulos, Panos

2014-01-01

Many diseases are linked with climate trends and variations. In particular, climate change is expected to alter the spatiotemporal dynamics of allergenic airborne pollen and potentially increase occurrence of allergic airway disease. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in pollen season timing and levels is thus important in assessing climate impacts on aerobiology and allergy caused by allergenic airborne pollen. Here we describe the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in the seasonal timing and levels of allergenic airborne pollen for multiple taxa in different climate regions at a continental scale. The allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass during the past decade (2001–2010) across the contiguous United States have been observed to start 3.0 (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.1–4.9) days earlier on average than in the 1990s (1994–2000). The average peak value and annual total of daily counted airborne pollen have increased by 42.4% (95% CI, 21.9%–62.9%) and 46.0% (95% CI, 21.5%–70.5%), respectively. Changes of pollen season timing and airborne levels depend on latitude, and are associated with changes of growing degree days, frost free days, and precipitation. These changes are likely due to recent climate change and particularly the enhanced warming and precipitation at higher latitudes in the contiguous United States. PMID:25266307

Impact of the hydrological cycle on past climate changes: three illustrations at different time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramstein, Gilles; Khodri, Myriam; Donnadieu, Yannick; Fluteau, Frédéric; Goddéris, Yves

2005-02-01

We investigate in the paper the impact of the hydrologic cycle on climate at different periods. The aim is to illustrate how the changes in moisture transport, precipitation pattern, and weathering may alter, at regional or global scales, the CO 2 and climate equilibriums. We choose three climate periods to pinpoint intricate relationships between water cycle and climate. The illustrations are the following. ( i) The onset of ice-sheet build-up, 115 kyr BP. We show that the increased thermal meridian gradient of SST allows large moisture advection over the North American continent and provides appropriate conditions for perennial snow on the Canadian Archipelago. ( ii) The onset of Indian Monsoon at the end of the Tertiary. We demonstrate that superimposed to the Tibetan Plateau, the shrinkage of the Tethys, since Oligocene, plays a major role to explain changes in the geographical pattern of the southeastern Asian Monsoon. ( iii) The onset of Global Glaciation (750 Ma). We show that the break-up of Rodinia occurring at low latitudes is an important feature to explain how the important precipitation increase leads to weathering and carbon burial, which contribute to decrease atmospheric CO 2 enough to produce a snows ball Earth. All these periods have been simulated with a hierarchy of models appropriate to quantify the water cycle impact on climate. To cite this article: G. Ramstein et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).

The Transformation of a Semiarid Ecosystem Due to Severe Drought and How It Has Influenced the Hydrologic Cycle Across Varying Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, A. B.; Springer, E. P.; Vivoni, E. R.

2008-12-01

An extended, severe drought in the southwestern U.S. from 2000 to 2003 was accompanied by increased temperatures and bark beetle infestations, inducing the large-scale mortality of woody overstory (Pinus edulis). The consequential redistribution of water, radiation, and nutrient availability modified the ecosystem phenology, species composition, and forced the ecosystem to transition into a new state. We hypothesize that the hydrological processes in the ecosystem were also altered due to the mortality. Thus, our objective is to investigate changes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum across the plot, watershed, and ecoregion scales. The plot site is located near Los Alamos in Northern New Mexico (1.5 hectare), the watershed is the Rio Ojo Caliente Basin (1,050 km2), a subbasin of the Upper Rio Grande, and the ecoregion consists of Pinus edulis, or piñon, across the Four Corners Region of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah (245,000 km2). These sites are chosen because a significant portion of the woodland ecosystem (piñon-juniper) was affected during the mortality event. Examining a remotely-sensed vegetation index (1-km AVHRR NDVI from 1989 to 2007), there is an increasing trend in the NDVI from 1989 to 1998 (pre-drought period), a decreasing trend from 1999 to 2003 (drought period), and a dramatic increasing trend from 2004 to 2007 (post-drought period) in which the NDVI rebounds to nearly pre-drought magnitudes. This pattern exists across the three spatial scales and signifies a profound alteration in the ecosystem, for while the vegetation composition was altered to a great degree, the system rapidly recovered photosynthetically during the post-drought period. This may be attributable to the decrease in the less- responsive overstory (pinñon mortality) and increase in the more-responsive understory (grasses and shrubs exploiting newly available resources). In order to examine hydrological changes, temporal patterns in gauge-based precipitation (frozen and unfrozen) and air temperature, and spatial-temporal patterns in PRISM precipitation, air temperature, and a soil moisture index are compared to the NDVI. The aim of this research is to explore the consequences of a severe drought married with elevated temperatures on vegetation and water resources. As the intensity and frequency of droughts are expected to increase in the southwestern U.S. with rising temperatures (IPCC 2007), this research contributes to our knowledge of ecosystem and hydrologic response to the changing climate.

Precipitation measurements on wind-swept slopes

Treesearch

Austin E. Helmers

1954-01-01

Precipitation catch for three calendar years is compared for four types of gage installation on a wind-swept south-facing slope with a 22° gradient at elevation 5500 ft. The 1950 precipitation catch by (1) weighing-recording gage with the orifice and an Alter type wind shield sloped parallel to the ground surface, (2) unshielded nonrecording gage with orifice sloped...

Modeling winter precipitation over the Juneau Icefield, Alaska, using a linear model of orographic precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roth, Aurora; Hock, Regine; Schuler, Thomas V.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Pelto, Mauri; Aschwanden, Andy

2018-03-01

Assessing and modeling precipitation in mountainous areas remains a major challenge in glacier mass balance modeling. Observations are typically scarce and reanalysis data and similar climate products are too coarse to accurately capture orographic effects. Here we use the linear theory of orographic precipitation model (LT model) to downscale winter precipitation from a regional climate model over the Juneau Icefield, one of the largest ice masses in North America (>4000 km2), for the period 1979-2013. The LT model is physically-based yet computationally efficient, combining airflow dynamics and simple cloud microphysics. The resulting 1 km resolution precipitation fields show substantially reduced precipitation on the northeastern portion of the icefield compared to the southwestern side, a pattern that is not well captured in the coarse resolution (20 km) WRF data. Net snow accumulation derived from the LT model precipitation agrees well with point observations across the icefield. To investigate the robustness of the LT model results, we perform a series of sensitivity experiments varying hydrometeor fall speeds, the horizontal resolution of the underlying grid, and the source of the meteorological forcing data. The resulting normalized spatial precipitation pattern is similar for all sensitivity experiments, but local precipitation amounts vary strongly, with greatest sensitivity to variations in snow fall speed. Results indicate that the LT model has great potential to provide improved spatial patterns of winter precipitation for glacier mass balance modeling purposes in complex terrain, but ground observations are necessary to constrain model parameters to match total amounts.

Effects of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns on flow and VOC transport to groundwater along a watershed flow path

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Richard L.; Thoms, R.B.; Zogorski, J.S.

2003-01-01

MTBE and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are widely observed in shallow groundwater in the United States, especially in urban areas. Previous studies suggest that the atmosphere and/or nonpoint surficial sources could be responsible for some of those VOCs, especially in areas where there is net recharge to groundwater. However, in semi-arid locations where annual potential evapotranspiration can exceed annual precipitation, VOC detections in groundwater can be frequent. VOC transport to groundwater under net discharge conditions has not previously been examined. A numerical model is used here to demonstrate that daily precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) patterns can have a significant effect on recharge to groundwater, water table elevations, and VOC transport. Ten-year precipitation/ET scenarios from six sites in the United States are examined using both actual daily observed values and “average” pulsed precipitation. MTBE and tetrachloroethylene transport, including gas-phase diffusion, are considered. The effects of the precipitation/ET scenarios on net recharge and groundwater flow are significant and complicated, especially under low-precipitation conditions when pulsed precipitation can significantly underestimate transport to groundwater. In addition to precipitation and evapotranspiration effects, location of VOC entry into the subsurface within the watershed is important for transport in groundwater. This is caused by groundwater hydraulics at the watershed scale as well as variations in ET within the watershed. The model results indicate that it is important to consider both daily precipitation/ET patterns and location within the watershed in order to interpret VOC occurrence in groundwater, especially in low-precipitation settings.

Improved CO sub 2 enhanced oil recovery -- Mobility control by in-situ chemical precipitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ameri, S.; Aminian, K.; Wasson, J.A.

1991-06-01

The overall objective of this study has been to evaluate the feasibility of chemical precipitation to improve CO{sub 2} sweep efficiency and mobility control. The laboratory experiments have indicated that carbonate precipitation can alter the permeability of the core samples under reservoir conditions. Furthermore, the relative permeability measurements have revealed that precipitation reduces the gas permeability in favor of liquid permeability. This indicates that precipitation is occurring preferentially in the larger pores. Additional experimental work with a series of connected cores have indicated that the permeability profile can be successfully modified. However, Ph control plays a critical role in propagationmore » of the chemical precipitation reaction. A numerical reservoir model has been utilized to evaluate the effects of permeability heterogeneity and permeability modification on the CO{sub 2} sweep efficiency. The computer simulation results indicate that the permeability profile modification can significantly enhance CO{sub 2} vertical and horizontal sweep efficiencies. The scoping studies with the model have further revealed that only a fraction of high permeability zones need to be altered to achieve sweep efficiency enhancement. 64 refs., 30 figs., 16 tabs.« less

Changing patterns of daily precipitation totals at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, USA

Treesearch

T. P. Burt; C. Ford Miniat; S. H. Laseter; W. T. Swank

2017-01-01

A pattern of increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall over land has been documented for several temperate regions and is associated with climate change. This study examines the changing patterns of daily precipitation at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, USA, since 1937 for four rain gauges across a range of elevations. We analyse...

Warming and increased precipitation frequency on the Colorado Plateau: Implications for biological soil crusts and soil processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zelikova, Tamara J.; Housman, David C.; Grote, Ed E.; Neher, Deborah A.; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Taken together, our results highlight the limited effects of warming alone on biological soil crust communities and soil chemistry, but demonstrate the substantially larger effects of altered summertime precipitation.

Climate Change Increases Drought Stress of Juniper Trees in the Mountains of Central Asia

PubMed Central

Seim, Andrea; Omurova, Gulzar; Azisov, Erlan; Musuraliev, Kanaat; Aliev, Kumar; Tulyaganov, Timur; Nikolyai, Lyutsian; Botman, Evgeniy; Helle, Gerd; Dorado Liñan, Isabel; Jivcov, Sandra; Linderholm, Hans W.

2016-01-01

Assessments of climate change impacts on forests and their vitality are essential for semi-arid environments such as Central Asia, where the mountain regions belong to the globally important biodiversity hotspots. Alterations in species distribution or drought-induced tree mortality might not only result in a loss of biodiversity but also in a loss of other ecosystem services. Here, we evaluate spatial trends and patterns of the growth-climate relationship in a tree-ring network comprising 33 juniper sites from the northern Pamir-Alay and Tien Shan mountain ranges in eastern Uzbekistan and across Kyrgyzstan for the common period 1935–2011. Junipers growing at lower elevations are sensitive to summer drought, which has increased in intensity during the studied period. At higher elevations, juniper growth, previously favored by warm summer temperatures, has in the recent few decades become negatively affected by increasing summer aridity. Moreover, response shifts are observed during all seasons. Rising temperatures and alterations in precipitation patterns during the past eight decades can account for the observed increase in drought stress of junipers at all altitudes. The implications of our findings are vital for the application of adequate long-term measures of ecosystem conservation, but also for paleo-climatic approaches and coupled climate-vegetation model simulations for Central Asia. PMID:27100092

Integrated Remote Sensing and Wavelet Analyses for Screening Short-term Teleconnection Patterns in Northeast America

EPA Science Inventory

Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have a demonstrable effect on vegetation dynamics and precipitation patterns throughout the continental U.S. SST variations have been correlated with greenness (vegetation densities) and precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactio...

Extreme precipitation patterns reduced terrestrial ecosystem production across biomass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more intense rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated ...

Determine precipitation rates from visible and infrared satellite images of clouds by pattern recognition technique. Progress Report, 1 Jul. 1985 - 31 Mar. 1987 Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinman, James A.; Garan, Louis

1987-01-01

A more advanced cloud pattern analysis algorithm was subsequently developed to take the shape and brightness of the various clouds into account in a manner that is more consistent with the human analyst's perception of GOES cloud imagery. The results of that classification scheme were compared with precipitation probabilities observed from ships of opportunity off the U.S. east coast to derive empirical regressions between cloud types and precipitation probability. The cloud morphology was then quantitatively and objectively used to map precipitation probabilities during two winter months during which severe cold air outbreaks were observed over the northwest Atlantic. Precipitation probabilities associated with various cloud types are summarized. Maps of precipitation probability derived from the cloud morphology analysis program for two months and the precipitation probability derived from thirty years of ship observation were observed.

Geographic variation in body size and its relationship with environmental gradients in the Oriental Garden Lizard, Calotes versicolor.

PubMed

Wei, Xiaomei; Yan, Linmiao; Zhao, Chengjian; Zhang, Yueyun; Xu, Yongli; Cai, Bo; Jiang, Ni; Huang, Yong

2018-05-01

Patterns of geographic variation in body size are predicted to evolve as adaptations to local environmental gradients. However, many of these clinal patterns in body size, such as Bergmann's rule, are controversial and require further investigation into ectotherms such as reptiles on a regional scale. To examine the environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, topography and primary productivity) that shaped patterns of geographic variation in body size in the reptile Calotes versicolor , we sampled 180 adult specimens (91 males and 89 females) at 40 locations across the species range in China. The MANOVA results suggest significant sexual size dimorphism in C. versicolor ( F 23,124  = 11.32, p  < .001). Our results showed that C. versicolor failed to fit the Bergmann's rule. We found that the most important predictors of variation in body size of C. versicolor differed for males and females, but mechanisms related to heat balance and water availability hypotheses were involved in both sexes. Temperature seasonality, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of the driest quarter were the most important predictors of variation in body size in males, whereas mean precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of the wettest month were most important for body size variation in females. The discrepancy between patterns of association between the sexes suggested that different selection pressures may be acting in males and females.

Patterns of orographic uplift in the Sierra Nevada and their relationship to upper-level atmospheric circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aguado, Edward; Cayan, Daniel R.; Reece, Brian D.; Riddle, Larry

1993-01-01

We examine monthly and seasonal patterns of precipitation across various elevations of the eastern Central Valley of California and the Sierra Nevada. A measure of the strength of the orographic effect called the “precipitation ratio” is calculated, and we separate months into four groups based on being wet or dry and having low or high precipitation ratios. Using monthly maps of mean 700-mb height anomalies, we describe the northern hemisphere mid-tropospheric circulation patterns associated with each of the four groups. Wet months are associated with negative height anomalies over the eastern Pacific, as expected. However, the orientation of the trough is different for years with high and low precipitation ratios. Wet months with high ratios typically have circulation patterns factoring a west-southwest to east-northeast storm track from around the Hawaiian Islands to the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Wet months with low precipitation ratios are associated with a trough centered near the Aleutians and a northwest to southeast storm track. Dry months are marked by anticyclones in the Pacific, but this feature is more localized to the eastern Pacific for months with low precipitation ratios than for those with high ratios. Using precipitation gauge and snow course data from the American River and Truckee-Tahoe basins, we determined that the strength of the orographic effect on a seasonal basis is spatially coherent at low and high elevations and on opposite sides of the Sierra Nevada crestline.

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Weaver, Scott; Gutzler, David; Dai, Aiguo; Delworth, Tom; Deser, Clara; Findell, Kristen; Fu, Rong;

Climate change, vector-borne diseases and working population.

PubMed

Vonesch, Nicoletta; D'Ovidio, Maria Concetta; Melis, Paola; Remoli, Maria Elena; Ciufolini, Maria Grazia; Tomao, Paola

2016-01-01

Risks associated with climate change are increasing worldwide and the global effects include altered weather and precipitation patterns, rising temperatures and others; human health can be affected directly and indirectly. This paper is an overview of literature regarding climate changes, their interaction with vector-borne diseases and impact on working population. Articles regarding climate changes as drivers of vector-borne diseases and evidences of occupational cases have been picked up by public databank. Technical documents were also included in the study. Evidences regarding the impact of climate changes on vector-borne diseases in Europe, provided by the analysis of the literature, are presented. Climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases are likely to be emerging due to climate modifications, with impacts on public and occupational health. However, other environmental and anthropogenic drivers such as increasing travelling and trade, deforestation and reforestation, altered land use and urbanization can influence their spread. Further studies are necessary to better understand the phenomenon and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect human health should be accelerated and strengthened.

Conditional Stochastic Models in Reduced Space: Towards Efficient Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodov, B.

2017-12-01

Stochastic simulation of realistic and statistically robust patterns of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced precipitation is a challenging task. It is even more challenging in a catastrophe modeling context, where tens of thousands of typhoon seasons need to be simulated in order to provide a complete view of flood risk. Ultimately, one could run a coupled global climate model and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, but this approach is not feasible in the catastrophe modeling context and, most importantly, may not provide TC track patterns consistent with observations. Rather, we propose to leverage NWP output for the observed TC precipitation patterns (in terms of downscaled reanalysis 1979-2015) collected on a Lagrangian frame along the historical TC tracks and reduced to the leading spatial principal components of the data. The reduced data from all TCs is then grouped according to timing, storm evolution stage (developing, mature, dissipating, ETC transitioning) and central pressure and used to build a dictionary of stationary (within a group) and non-stationary (for transitions between groups) covariance models. Provided that the stochastic storm tracks with all the parameters describing the TC evolution are already simulated, a sequence of conditional samples from the covariance models chosen according to the TC characteristics at a given moment in time are concatenated, producing a continuous non-stationary precipitation pattern in a Lagrangian framework. The simulated precipitation for each event is finally distributed along the stochastic TC track and blended with a non-TC background precipitation using a data assimilation technique. The proposed framework provides means of efficient simulation (10000 seasons simulated in a couple of days) and robust typhoon precipitation patterns consistent with observed regional climate and visually undistinguishable from high resolution NWP output. The framework is used to simulate a catalog of 10000 typhoon seasons implemented in a flood risk model for Japan.

Precipitation Extremes in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiferaw, A. S.; Tadesse, T.; Oglesby, R. J.; Rowe, C. M.

2017-12-01

The precipitation extremes were generated over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) using the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). To assess how well the RCM simulations are capturing the historical observed precipitation extremes, they were compared with the precipitation extremes derived from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS v2). The result shows that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of the precipitation extremes (i.e., the pattern correlation is greater than 0.5). However, significant overestimations or underestimations were observed over some localized areas in the region. The study then assessed the projected changes in these precipitation extremes during 2069-2098 and compared to the 1976-2005 period that were both derived from the RCM simulations. Projected changes in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), annual number of heavy (>10mm) and very heavy (>20mm) precipitation days by 2069-2098 show a general north-south pattern with a decrease over southern-half and increase over the northern-half of GHA. These changes are often greatest over parts of Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopian highlands and southern Tanzania. Maximum 1 and 5-day total precipitation in a year and "Simple Daily Precipitation Intensity Index" (ratio of PRCPTOT to rainy days) are projected to increase over majority of GHA, including areas where PRCPTOT is projected to decrease, suggesting fewer but heavier rainy days in the future. Changes in annual sum of daily precipitation above 95th and 99th percentile are not statistically significant except Eritrea and northwestern Sudan/Somalia. Projected changes in consecutive dry days (CDD) suggest longer periods of dryness over majority of GHA. Among these areas, a substantial increases in CDD are located over southern Tanzania and Ethiopian highlands.

Patterns of Precipitation and Streamflow Responses to Moisture Fluxes during Atmospheric Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henn, B. M.; Wilson, A. M.; Asgari Lamjiri, M.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Precipitation from landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been shown to dominate the hydroclimate of many parts of the world. ARs are associated with saturated, neutrally-stable profiles in the lower atmosphere, in which forced ascent by topography induces precipitation. Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over complex terrain during AR-driven precipitation is critical for accurate forcing of distributed hydrologic models and streamflow forecasts. Past studies using radar wind profilers and radiosondes have demonstrated predictability of precipitation rates based on upslope water vapor flux over coastal terrain, with certain levels of moisture flux exhibiting the greatest influence on precipitation. Additionally, these relationships have been extended to show that streamflow in turn responds predictably to upslope vapor flux. However, past studies have focused on individual pairs of profilers and precipitation gauges; the question of how orographic precipitation in ARs is distributed spatially over complex terrain, at different topographic scales, is less well known. Here, we examine profiles of atmospheric moisture transport from radiosondes and wind profilers, against a relatively dense network of precipitation gauges, as well as stream gauges, to assess relationships between upslope moisture flux and the spatial response of precipitation and streamflow. We focus on California's Russian River watershed in the 2016-2017 cool season, when regular radiosonde launches were made at two locations during an active sequence of landfalling ARs. We examine how atmospheric water vapor flux results in precipitation patterns across gauges with different topographic relationships to the prevailing moisture-bearing winds, and conduct a similar comparison of runoff volume response from several unimpaired watersheds in the upper Russian watershed, taking into account antecedent soil moisture conditions that influence runoff generation. Finally, we compare observed spatial patterns of precipitation accumulations to those in a topographically-aided gridded precipitation dataset to understand how atmospheric moisture transport may inform methods to downscale precipitation to high resolution for use in hydrologic modeling.

Effects of turbulence-induced collision enhancement on heavy precipitation: The 21 September 2010 case over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyunho; Baik, Jong-Jin

2016-10-01

The effects of turbulence-induced collision enhancement (TICE) on a heavy precipitation event that occurred on 21 September 2010 over the middle Korean Peninsula are examined. For this purpose, an updated bin microphysics scheme incorporating TICE for drop-drop and drop-graupel collisions is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The numerical simulation shows some differences in the strong precipitation system compared to the observations but generally captures well the important features of observed synoptic conditions, surface precipitation, and radar reflectivity. While the change in domain-averaged surface precipitation amount due to TICE is small and similar to that due to small initial perturbations, the spatial distribution of surface precipitation amount is somewhat altered due to TICE. The surface precipitation amount is increased due to TICE in the area where the largest surface precipitation occurred, but the effects of different flow realizations also contribute to the changes. TICE accelerates the coalescence between small cloud droplets, which induces a decrease in condensation and an increase in excess water vapor transported upward. This causes an increase in relative humidity with respect to ice at high altitudes, hence increasing the depositional growth of ice particles. Therefore, the ice mass increases due to TICE, and this increase induces the increases in riming and melting of ice particles. A series of these microphysical changes due to TICE are regarded as partially contributing to the increase in surface precipitation amount in some areas, hence inducing alterations in the spatial distribution of surface precipitation amount.

A Data Centred Method to Estimate and Map Changes in the Full Distribution of Daily Precipitation and Its Exceedances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2014-12-01

Estimates of how our climate is changing are needed locally in order to inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles or thresholds in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. We develop a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes, to specifically address the challenges presented by 'heavy tailed' distributed variables such as daily precipitation. We extract from the data quantities that characterize the changes in time of the likelihood of daily precipitation above a threshold and of the relative amount of precipitation in those extreme precipitation days. Our method is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of precipitation distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily precipitation from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. We treat geographical location and precipitation as independent variables and thus obtain as outputs the pattern of change at a given threshold of precipitation and with geographical location. This is model- independent, thus providing data of direct value in model calibration and assessment. Our results identify regionally consistent patterns which, dependent on location, show systematic increase in precipitation on the wettest days, shifts in precipitation patterns to less moderate days and more heavy days, and drying across all days which is of potential value in adaptation planning. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287; D. A. Stainforth, S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [2] Haylock et al. 2008 J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present in damage reporting errors, claims from private insurers and adaptation effects after damaging events. As for the latter, preliminary results indicate that investments regularly occur after big events, which may skew subsequent damage claims. Their effectiveness, though, needs to be analyzed in future research.

Modeling Thermal Pressurization Around Shallow Dikes Using Temperature-Dependent Hydraulic Properties: Implications for Deformation Around Intrusions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townsend, Meredith R.

2018-01-01

Pressurization and flow of groundwater around igneous intrusions depend in part on the hydraulic diffusivity of the host rocks and processes that enhance diffusivity, such as fracturing, or decrease diffusivity, such as mineral precipitation during chemical alteration. Characterizing and quantifying the coupled effects of alteration, pore pressurization, and deformation have significant implications for deformation around intrusions, geothermal energy, contact metamorphism, and heat transfer at mid-ocean ridges. Fractures around dikes at Ship Rock, New Mexico, indicate that pore pressures in the host rocks exceeded hydrostatic conditions by at least 15 MPa following dike emplacement. Hydraulic measurements and petrographic analysis indicate that mineral precipitation clogged the pores of the host rock, reducing porosity from 0.25 to <0.10 and reducing permeability by 5 orders of magnitude. Field data from Ship Rock are used to motivate and constrain numerical models for thermal pore fluid pressurization adjacent to a meter-scale dike, using temperature-dependent hydraulic properties in the host rock as a proxy for porosity loss by mineral precipitation during chemical alteration. Reduction in permeability by chemical alteration has a negligible effect on pressurization. However, reduction in porosity by mineral precipitation increases fluid pressure by constricting pore volume and is identified as a potentially significant source of pressure. A scaling relationship is derived to determine when porosity loss becomes important; if permeability is low enough, pressurization by porosity loss outweighs pressurization by thermal expansion of fluids.

Dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation in basalts due to reactions with carbonic acid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanakiya, Shreya; Adam, Ludmila; Esteban, Lionel; Rowe, Michael C.; Shane, Phil

2017-06-01

One of the leading hydrothermal alteration processes in volcanic environments is when rock-forming minerals with high concentrations of iron, magnesium, and calcium react with CO2 and water to form carbonate minerals. This is used to the advantage of geologic sequestration of anthropogenic CO2. Here we experimentally investigate how mineral carbonation processes alter the rock microstructure due to CO2-water-rock interactions. In order to characterize these changes, CO2-water-rock alteration in Auckland Volcanic Field young basalts (less than 0.3 Ma) is studied before and after a 140 day reaction period. We investigate how whole core basalts with similar geochemistry but different porosity, permeability, pore geometry, and volcanic glass content alter due to CO2-water-rock reactions. Ankerite and aluminosilicate minerals precipitate as secondary phases in the pore space. However, rock dissolution mechanisms are found to dominate this secondary mineral precipitation resulting in an increase in porosity and decrease in rigidity of all samples. The basalt with the highest initial porosity and volcanic glass volume shows the most secondary mineral precipitation. At the same time, this sample exhibits the greatest increase in porosity and permeability, and a decrease in rock rigidity post reaction. For the measured samples, we observe a correlation between volcanic glass volume and rock porosity increase due to rock-fluid reactions. We believe this study can help understand the dynamic rock-fluid interactions when monitoring field scale CO2 sequestration projects in basalts.

Rainfall pattern variability as climate change impact in The Wallacea Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pujiastuti, I.; Nurjani, E.

2018-04-01

The objective of the study is to observe the characteristic variability of rainfall pattern in the city located in every rainfall type, local (Kendari), monsoon (Manado), and equatorial (Palu). The result will be compared to determine which has the most significantly precipitation changing due to climate change impact. Rainfall variability in Indonesia illustrates precipitation variation thus the important variability is the variability of monthly rainfall. Monthly precipitation data for the period of 1961-2010 are collected from Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency. This data is calculated with the normal test statistical method to analyze rainfall variability. The result showed the pattern of trend and variability of rainfall in every city with the own characteristic which determines the rainfall type. Moreover, there is comparison of rainfall pattern changing between every rainfall type. This information is useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies especially in water resource management form precipitation as well as the occurrence of meteorological disasters.

Impact of anthropogenic heat release on regional climate in three vast urban agglomerations in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Jinming; Wang, Jun; Yan, Zhongwei

2014-03-01

We simulated the impact of anthropogenic heat release (AHR) on the regional climate in three vast city agglomerations in China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested high-resolution modeling. Based on energy consumption and high-quality land use data, we designed two scenarios to represent no-AHR and current-AHR conditions. By comparing the results of the two numerical experiments, changes of surface air temperature and precipitation due to AHR were quantified and analyzed. We concluded that AHR increases the temperature in these urbanized areas by about 0.5°C—1°C, and this increase is more pronounced in winter than in other seasons. The inclusion of AHR enhances the convergence of water vapor over urbanized areas. Together with the warming of the lower troposphere and the enhancement of ascending motions caused by AHR, the average convective available potential energy in urbanized areas is increased. Rainfall amounts in summer over urbanized areas are likely to increase and regional precipitation patterns to be altered to some extent.

An approach for assessing the sensitivity of floods to regional climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, James P.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Wood, Eric F.

1992-06-01

A high visibility afforded climate change issues is recent years has led to conflicts between and among decision makers and scientists. Decision makers inevitably feel pressure to assess the effect of climate change on the public welfare, while most climate modelers are, to a greater or lesser degree, concerned about the extent to which known inaccuracies in their models limit or preclude the use of modeling results for policy making. The water resources sector affords a good example of the limitations of the use of alternative climate scenarios derived from GCMs for decision making. GCM simulations of precipitation agree poorly between GCMs, and GCM predictions of runoff and evapotranspiration are even more uncertain. Further, water resources managers must be concerned about hydrologic extremes (floods and droughts) which are much more difficult to predict than ``average'' conditions. Most studies of the sensitivity of water resource systems and operating policies to climate change to data have been based on simple perturbations of historic hydroclimatological time series to reflect the difference between large area GCM simulations for an altered climate (e.g., CO2 doubling) and a GCM simulation of present climate. Such approaches are especially limited for assessment of the sensitivity of water resources systems under extreme conditions, conditions, since the distribution of storm inter-arrival times, for instance, is kept identical to that observed in the historic past. Further, such approaches have generally been based on the difference between the GCM altered and present climates for a single grid cell, primarily because the GCM spatial scale is often much larger than the scale at which climate interpretations are desired. The use of single grid cell GCM results is considered inadvisable by many GCM modelers, who feel the spatial scale for which interpretation of GCM results is most reasonable is on the order of several grid cells. In this paper, we demonstrate an alternative approach to assessing the implications of altered climates as predicted by GCMs for extreme (flooding) conditions. The approach is based on the characterization of regional atmospheric circulation patterns through a weather typing procedure, from which a stochastic model of the weather class occurrences is formulated. Weather types are identified through a CART (Classification and Regression Tree) approach. Precipitation occurence/non-occurence at multiple precipitation station is then predicted through a second stage stochastic model. Precipitation amounts are predicted conditional on the weather class identified from the large area circulation information.

Relationship between Precipitation Components and Teleconnection Patterns in the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

María Ruiz, Ana; Maqueda, Gregorio

2016-04-01

The study of precipitation components is of increasing interest due to the differences that involve each of the correspondent consequences. On one hand, the stratiform component, weak and light, causes regular and long-lasting precipitation. On the other hand, the convective one, stronger and intense, is associated with more local precipitation, produced in short periods of time. In this work, the separated components of precipitation, obtained through the distribution of cumulated rain as its intensity has been analyzed for five sectors with different climate characteristic in Spain. The sectors may initially be of Atlantic or Mediterranean influence, besides having others geographical and orographic dependence. The aim of this study is to determine the influence of different teleconnection patterns over the stratiform and convective precipitation for each sector. The dataset have been a 17 years time series (1998-2014) of hourly rain data from the AEMET network (Spanish Meteorological Agency) consistent of 63 rain gauge stations that cover all the study area. Results show, in autumn-winter season, a clear influence of NAO in the stratiform precipitation for every sector except the closest to the Mediterranean sea. High correlation between EA, SCAND and EA/WR patterns with the stratiform component also it is observed. In the case of convective precipitation only the WeMO index keeps some influence in the near Mediterranean sector.

Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship.

PubMed

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Peñuelas, Josep; Bahn, Michael; Beier, Claus; Emmett, Bridget A; Fay, Philip A; Hanson, Paul J; Hasibeder, Roland; Kigel, Jaime; Kröel-Dulay, Gyorgy; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Lellei-Kovács, Eszter; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Reinsch, Sabine; Sala, Osvaldo E; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Sternberg, Marcelo; Tielbörger, Katja; Tietema, Albert; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-07-01

Well-defined productivity-precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity-precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation-reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effects of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation-manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity-precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. The majority of experiments (72%) showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation-reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Lei; Shin, Sang-Ik; Liu, Zhengyu; Liu, Qinyu

2016-10-01

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies was estimated from ensemble simulations of two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) with an array of idealized SST anomaly patch prescriptions. Consistent sensitivity patterns were obtained in both models. Sensitivity of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation to cooling in the East Pacific was much weaker than to that of the same magnitude in the local Indian-western Pacific, over which a meridional pattern of warm north and cold south was most instrumental in increasing ISM precipitation. This indicates that the strength of the ENSO-ISM relationship is due to the large-amplitude East Pacific SST anomaly rather than its sensitivity value. Sensitivity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), represented by the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV, also known as the meiyu-baiu front) precipitation, is non-uniform across the Indian Ocean basin. YHRV precipitation was most sensitive to warm SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, whereas the southern Indian Ocean had the opposite effect. This implies that the strengthened EASM in the post-Niño year is attributable mainly to warming of the northern Indian Ocean. The corresponding physical links between these SST anomaly patterns and ASM precipitation were also discussed. The relevance of sensitivity maps was justified by the high correlation between sensitivity-map-based reconstructed time series using observed SST anomaly patterns and actual precipitation series derived from ensemble-mean atmospheric GCM runs with time-varying global SST prescriptions during the same period. The correlation results indicated that sensitivity maps derived from patch experiments were far superior to those based on regression methods.

Moisture sources and pathways associated with the spatial variability of seasonal extreme precipitation over Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Chen, Yongqin David

2018-01-01

Nine regions with spatially coherent seasonal 3-day total precipitation extremes across Canada were identified using a clustering method that is compliant to the extreme value theory. Using storm back-trajectory analyses, we then identified possible moisture sources and pathways that are conducive to occurrences of seasonal extreme precipitation events in four seasons for the nine regions identified. Moisture pathways for all extreme precipitation events were clustered to nine dominant moisture pathway patterns using the self-organizing map method. Results show that horizontal moisture pathway patterns and their occurrences were not evidently different between seasons. However, warm (summer and fall) and cold (winter and spring) seasons show considerable differences in the spreading of moisture sources in all nine regions, even though many sources do not frequently contribute to extreme precipitation events. In all four seasons, terrestrial evapotranspiration had provided major moisture sources to many extreme precipitation events occurred in inland regions. Central Canada had received more widespread moisture sources over surrounding oceans of North America than western and eastern Canada, because of more diverse moisture pathway patterns for central Canada that transport moisture from all surrounding oceans to central Canada. Extreme precipitation in southwestern Canada mainly resulted from atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific Ocean. For northwestern Canada, moisture pathway patterns were from the northern Pacific, Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans, even though more than 78% of trajectories for northwestern Canada were from the North Pacific. Westerlies from the North Pacific Ocean and northern polar jet streams controlled dominant pathways to central and eastern Canada. More extreme precipitation events over Canada were fed by the Arctic Ocean in warm than in cold seasons.

Moisture sources and pathways associated with the spatial variability of seasonal extreme precipitation over Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, T. Y. Y.; Tan, X.; Chen, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Nine regions with spatially coherent seasonal 3-day total precipitation extremes across Canada were identified using a clustering method that is compliant to the extreme value theory. Using storm back-trajectory analyses, we then identified possible moisture sources and pathways that are conducive to occurrences of seasonal extreme precipitation events in four seasons for the nine regions identified.Moisture pathways for all extreme precipitation events were clustered to nine dominant moisture pathway patterns using the self-organizing map method. Results show that horizontal moisture pathway patterns and their occurrences were not evidently different between seasons. However, warm (summer and fall) and cold (winter and spring) seasons show considerable differences in the spreading ofmoisture sources in all nine regions, even though many sources do not frequently contribute to extreme precipitation events. In all four seasons, terrestrial evapotranspiration had provided major moisture sources to many extreme precipitation events occurred in inland regions. Central Canada had received more widespread moisture sources over surrounding oceans of North America than western and eastern Canada, because of more diverse moisture pathway patterns for central Canada that transport moisture from all surrounding oceans to central Canada. Extreme precipitation in southwestern Canada mainly resulted from atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific Ocean. For northwestern Canada, moisture pathway patterns were from the northern Pacific, Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans, even though more than 78% of trajectories for northwestern Canada were from the North Pacific. Westerlies from the North Pacific Ocean and northern polar jet streams controlled dominant pathways to central and eastern Canada. More extreme precipitation events over Canada were fed by the Arctic Ocean in warm than in cold seasons.

Levels, trends and health concerns of atmospheric PAHs in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrido, Adrián; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro; Ratola, Nuno

2014-12-01

Changes in climate can affect the concentration patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by altering the dispersion (wind speed, mixing layer height, convective fronts), deposition by precipitation, dry deposition, photochemistry, natural emissions and background concentrations. This means the evolution trends of these pollutants have to be studied under a multi-scale perspective, allowing the establishment of transport patterns and distribution of PAHs. In this sense, this work tries to unveil the atmospheric behaviour of these pollutants using temporal data series collected in different stations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) air sampling network. These sites are thought to avoid the direct influence of emitting areas (background stations), allowing the study of long-range transport effects, intra- and trans-annual variability, relationships between concentrations patterns and meteorological variables and latitudinal gradients of PAH levels in Europe. Overall, a typical high concentration pattern was found for the colder months (and an opposite behaviour is found for summertime). Negative trends were detected over high latitudes, for instance, in Svalbard (Norway), whereas for the United Kingdom the pattern is the inverse. Also, negative latitudinal gradients were observed in 4 of the 15 PAHs studied. Finally, air quality parameters revealed concern over human health issues, given the recent increase of BaP levels in Europe.

Potential impacts of the Arctic on interannual and interdecadal summer precipitation over China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2013-02-01

After the end of the 1970s, there has been a tendency for enhanced summer precipitation over South China and the Yangtze River valley and drought over North China and Northeastern China. Coincidentally, Arctic ice concentration has decreased since the late 1970s, with larger reduction in summer than spring. However, the Arctic warming is more significant in spring than summer, suggesting that spring Arctic conditions could be more important in their remote impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of the Arctic on summer precipitation in China. The leading spatial patterns and time coefficients of the unfiltered, interannual, and interdecadal precipitationmore » (1960-2008) modes were analyzed and compared using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which shows that the first three EOFs can capture the principal precipitation patterns (northern, central and southern patterns) over eastern China. Regression of the Arctic spring and summer temperature onto the time coefficients of the leading interannual and interdecadal precipitation modes shows that interdecadal summer precipitation in China is related to the Arctic spring warming, but the relationship with Arctic summer temperature is weak. Moreover, no notable relationships were found between the first three modes of interannual precipitation and Arctic spring or summer temperatures. Finally, correlations between summer precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index from January to August were investigated, which indicate that summer precipitation in China correlates with AO only to some extent. Overall, this study suggests important relationships between the Arctic spring temperature and summer precipitation over China at the interdecadal time scale.« less

Variations in extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau using a high-resolution dataset and their linkages with atmospheric circulation indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guangju; Zhai, Jianqing; Tian, Peng; Zhang, Limei; Mu, Xingmin; An, Zhengfeng; Han, Mengwei

2017-08-01

Assessing regional patterns and trends in extreme precipitation is crucial for facilitating flood control and drought adaptation because extreme climate events have more damaging impacts on society and ecosystems than simple shifts in the mean values. In this study, we employed daily precipitation data from 231 climate stations spanning 1961 to 2014 to explore the changes in precipitation extremes on the Loess Plateau, China. Nine of the 12 extreme precipitation indices suggested decreasing trends, and only the annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and R10 declined significantly: - 0.69 mm/a and - 0.023 days/a at the 95% confidence level. The spatial patterns in all of the extreme precipitation indices indicated mixed trends on the Loess Plateau, with decreasing trends in the precipitation extremes at the majority of the stations examined in the Fen-Wei River valley and high-plain plateau. Most of extreme precipitation indices suggested apparent regional differences, whereas R25 and R20 had spatially similar patterns on the Loess Plateau, with many stations revealing no trends. In addition, we found a potential decreasing trend in rainfall amounts and rainy days and increasing trends in rainfall intensities and storm frequencies in some regions due to increasing precipitation events in recent years. The relationships between extreme rainfall events and atmospheric circulation indices suggest that the weakening trend in the East Asia summer monsoon has limited the northward extension of the rainfall belt to northern China, thereby leading to a decrease in rainfall on the Loess Plateau.

Aerosol loading impact on Asian monsoon precipitation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, Riccardo; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Costabile, Francesca; Cairo, Francesco

2017-04-01

Solar light absorption by aerosols such as black carbon and dust assume a key role in driving the precipitation patterns in the Indian subcontinent. The aerosols stack up against the foothills of the Himalayas in the pre-monsoon season and several studies have already demonstrated that this can cause precipitation anomalies during summer. Despite its great significance in climate change studies, the link between absorbing aerosols loading and precipitation patterns remains highly uncertain. The main challenge for this kind of studies is to find consistent and reliable datasets. Several aerosol time series are available from satellite and ground based instruments and some precipitation datasets from satellite sensors, but they all have different time/spatial resolution and they use different assumptions for estimating the parameter of interest. We have used the aerosol estimations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and validated them against the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the Indian area. The precipitation has been analyzed by using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimations and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2). From our results it is evident the discrepancy between the aerosol loading on the area of interest from the OMI, AATSR, and MODIS, but even between 3 different algorithms applied to the MODIS data. This uncertainty does not allow to clearly distinguishing high aerosol loading years from low aerosol loading years except in a couple of cases where all the estimations agree. Similar issues are also present in the precipitation estimations from TRMM and MERRA-2. However, all the aerosol datasets agree in defining couples of consecutive years with a large gradient of aerosol loading. Based on this assumption we have compared the precipitation anomalies and found typical patterns characterizing different Indian regions in late summer. Analyzing the AERONET data we have also separated the black carbon and dust contribution to the total aerosol loading based on aerosol spectral optical properties for investigating the link between different aerosol types and precipitation patterns.

An Evaluation of Teleconnections Over the United States in an Ensemble of AMIP Simulations with the MERRA-2 Configuration of the GEOS Atmospheric Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Mahanama, Sarith P.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2017-01-01

The atmospheric general circulation model that is used in NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) is evaluated with respect to the relationship between large-scale teleconnection patterns and daily temperature and precipitation over the United States (US) using a ten-member ensemble of simulations, referred to as M2AMIP. A focus is placed on four teleconnection patterns that are known to influence weather and climate in the US: El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American Pattern. The monthly and seasonal indices associated with the patterns are correlated with daily temperature and precipitation statistics including: (i) monthly mean 2 m temperature and precipitation, (ii) the frequency of extreme temperature events at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and (iii) the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events classified at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles.Correlations obtained with M2AMIP data and thus the strength of teleconnections in the free-running model are evaluated through comparison against corresponding correlations computed from observations and from MERRA-2. Overall, the strongest teleconnections in all datasets occur during the winter and coincide with the largest agreement between the observations, MERRA-2, and M2AMIP. When M2AMIP does capture the correlation seen in observations, there is a tendency for the spatial extent to be exaggerated. The weakest agreement between the data sources, for all teleconnection patterns, is in the correlation with extreme precipitation; however there are discrepancies between the datasets in the number of days with at least 1 mm of precipitation: M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the Northwest and the Northern Great Plains and too many days in the Northeast. In JJA, M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the western two-thirds of the country and too many days with precipitation along the east coast.

Younger Dryas equilibrium line altitudes and precipitation patterns in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerschner, Hanns; Moran, Andrew; Ivy-Ochs, Susan

2016-04-01

Moraine systems of the "Egesen Stadial" are widespread and easily identifiable features in the Alps. Absolute dating with terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclides shows that the maximum extent was reached during the early Younger Dryas (YD), probably as a reaction to the intense climatic downturn subsequent to Lateglacial Interstadial. In recent years, several new studies and the availability of high-quality laser-scan hillshades and orthophotos allowed a significant extension of the database of YD glaciers as "palaeoprecipitation gauges" to large hitherto unmapped regions in the Austrian and Swiss Alps. The equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the glaciers and its lowering relative to the Little Ice Age ELA (dELA) shows a distinct and systematic spatial pattern. Along the northern slope of the Alps, dELAs are usually large (around 400 m and perhaps even more), while dELAs range around 200 m in the well sheltered areas of the central Alps, e.g. in the Engadine and in western Tyrol. Both stochastic glacier-climate models (e.g. Ohmura et al. 1992) and the heat- and mass balance equation (Kuhn 1981) allow the reconstruction of precipitation change under the assumption of a spatially constant summer temperature depression, which in turn can be estimated from biological proxies. This allows to draw the spatial pattern of precipitation change with considerable detail. Precipitation change is clearly controlled by the local relief like high mountain chains, deeply incised and long valleys and mountain passes. Generally the contrast between the northern fringe of the Alps and the interior was more pronounced than today. Climate in the Northern and and Northwestern Alps was rather wet with precipitation totals eventually exceeding modern annual sums. The central Alps received 20 - 30% less precipitation than today, mainly due to reduced winter precipitation. In the southern Alps, still scarce spatial information points to precipitation sums which were approximately similar to modern values. As winter precipitation was probably much smaller than today, seasonal contrasts were more pronounced. In total, the pattern of YD precipitation change is remarkably similar to precipitation patterns caused by westerly and northwesterly cyclonic airflow during the present-day hydrologic winter (October - March). Kerschner, H., G. Kaser, R. Sailer (2000): Alpine Younger Dryas glaciers as paleo-precipitation gauges. Annals of Glaciology 31, 80-84. Kerschner, H. and S. Ivy-Ochs (2007): Palaeoclimate from glaciers: Examples from the Eastern Alps during the Alpine Lateglacial and early Holocene. Global and Planetary Change 60, 58-71.

On the teleconnection patterns to precipitation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yu; Wang, Binbin; Zou, Chris B.; Hu, Bill X.; Liu, Youcun; Hao, Yonghong

2017-11-01

The Tianshan Mountains are known as the "water tower" in the arid region of Central Asia. Change in precipitation amount and pattern can have a profound impact on regional civilization and life supporting ecosystems. For this study, a systematic analysis of long-term precipitation data for the eastern Tianshan Mountains was conducted to investigate the influence of climate teleconnections on annual and intra-annual precipitation using data collected between 1951 and 2014 from 39 meteorological stations. Annual precipitation has increased during the past six decades at an average rate of 6.7 mm/10 years largely due to the increase in precipitation during the intra-annual wet period (May-October). The annual precipitation and its rate of increase were higher in the northwestern region. Annual precipitation was found to be most strongly correlated with index of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), and partially correlated with indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA), Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ISM was positively correlated with the precipitation in almost the entire region during the intra-annual wet period, while it showed positive correlations in the northern slope and the alpine region, and negative correlations in the southern slope during the intra-annual dry period (November to April). PDO had much weaker influence both in spatial scale and strength and primarily affected low elevations on the southern slopes of the middle and western regions. The impacts of PNA and AO on precipitation were weak and localized. ENSO and NAO indices were almost not correlated with annual precipitation observation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains.

Nonlinear response in runoff magnitude to fluctuating rain patterns.

PubMed

Curtu, R; Fonley, M

2015-03-01

The runoff coefficient of a hillslope is a reliable measure for changes in the streamflow response at the river link outlet. A high runoff coefficient is a good indicator of the possibility of flash floods. Although the relationship between runoff coefficient and streamflow has been the subject of much study, the physical mechanisms affecting runoff coefficient including the dependence on precipitation pattern remain open topics for investigation. In this paper, we analyze a rainfall-runoff model at the hillslope scale as that hillslope is forced with different rain patterns: constant rain and fluctuating rain with different frequencies and amplitudes. When an oscillatory precipitation pattern is applied, although the same amount of water may enter the system, its response (measured by the runoff coefficient) will be maximum for a certain frequency of precipitation. The significant increase in runoff coefficient after a certain pattern of rainfall can be a potential explanation for the conditions preceding flash-floods.

Applying complex networks to evaluate precipitation patterns over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciemer, Catrin; Boers, Niklas; Barbosa, Henrique; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja

2016-04-01

The climate of South America exhibits pronounced differences between the wet- and the dry-season, which are accompanied by specific synoptic events like changes in the location of the South American Low Level Jet (SALLJ) and the establishment of the South American Convergence Zone (SACZ). The onset of these events can be related to the presence of typical large-scale precipitation patterns over South America, as previous studies have shown[1,2]. The application of complex network methods to precipitation data recently received increased scientific attention for the special case of extreme events, as it is possible with such methods to analyze the spatiotemporal correlation structure as well as possible teleconnections of these events[3,4]. In these approaches the correlation between precipitation datasets is calculated by means of Event Synchronization which restricts their applicability to extreme precipitation events. In this work, we propose a method which is able to consider not only extreme precipitation but complete time series. A direct application of standard similarity measures in order to correlate precipitation time series is impossible due to their intricate statistical properties as the large amount of zeros. Therefore, we introduced and evaluated a suitable modification of Pearson's correlation coefficient to construct spatial correlation networks of precipitation. By analyzing the characteristics of spatial correlation networks constructed on the basis of this new measure, we are able to determine coherent areas of similar precipitation patterns, spot teleconnections of correlated areas, and detect central regions for precipitation correlation. By analyzing the change of the network over the year[5], we are also able to determine local and global changes in precipitation correlation patterns. Additionally, global network characteristics as the network connectivity yield indications for beginning and end of wet- and dry season. In order to identify large-scale synoptic events like the SACZ and SALLJ onset, detecting the changes of correlation over time between certain regions is of significant relevance. [1] Nieto-Ferreira et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2011) [2] Vera et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2006) [3] Quiroga et al. Physical review E (2002) [4] Boers et al. nature communications (2014) [5] Radebach et al. Physical review E (2013)

Morphological recognition of Globigerinoides ruber morphotypes and their susceptibility to diagenetic alteration in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kontakiotis, G.; Antonarakou, A.; Mortyn, P. G.; Drinia, H.; Anastasakis, G.; Zarkogiannis, S.; Möbius, J.

2017-10-01

Planktonic foraminiferal geochemistry presents a valuable archive for paleoceanographic reconstructions. However in high salinity and carbonate super-saturated settings, precipitation of inorganic calcite onto foraminiferal tests can potentially alter the primary geochemical signal, biasing Mg/Ca ratios and ensuing paleoceanographic reconstructions. Here we utilize test biometrics (specifically related to the compression and elongation of the last chambers) to identify four distinct morphotypes (labelled A-D) of the paleoceanographically important planktonic foraminifer species Globigerinoides ruber, and further evaluate their susceptibility to diagenetic alteration from a suite of surface sediments in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The three distinguished morphotypes (A-C) correspond to previously recognized morphotypes ("Normal", "Platys", "Elongate" respectively) in the Mediterranean Sea, while the remaining (D or "Twin") was designated for the first time. We also compare Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) observations performed on four distinguished morphotypes, indicative of potential diagenetic alteration influence. We identified 3 different overgrowth stages (OGA1-OGA3), as a function of geography in the study area. The early diagenesis degrees (involving all the morphotypes) are only geographically distinct along the eastern Mediterranean (increasing to the south), since the morphology does not play a role in the likelihood of diagenetic alteration. Particularly, in the north Aegean Sea, SEM analyses reveal the absence or limited presence of an overgrowth imprint in all recognized morphotypes, while in the central-south Aegean and Levantine Seas they show higher amplitudes of diagenetic overprint supporting the general trend to advanced diagenetic alteration. The semi-enclosed oligotrophic nature and high salinity of this setting, in combination with the different degree of carbonate precipitation and calcite super-saturation between the sub-basins, could be the most plausible explanation for the observed diagenetic stages. The ecological divergence between the morphotypes, determined by different controlling factors (depth habitats, growth optimum/stressed conditions, productivity, stratification, near-/offshore-conditions), in combination with their different test morphologies (related to shell porosity), control directly their distribution pattern. Regardless of the exact mechanism of early diagenetic processes, our results remove one potential source of uncertainty in Mg/Ca-T reconstructions in such highly evaporitive basins of the (sub)tropics, and potentially open the door to the calculation of a multivariate calibration with greater accuracy. However, further investigations should extend this approach to test the robustness of our findings in a number of similar oceanic settings.

Liesegang banding and multiple precipitate formation in cobalt phosphate systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karam, Tony; El-Rassy, Houssam; Zaknoun, Farah; Moussa, Zeinab; Sultan, Rabih

2012-02-01

We study a cobalt phosphate Liesegang pattern from cobalt(II) and phosphate ions in a 1D tube. The system yields a complex, multi-component pattern. Characterization of the different precipitates by FTIR, SEM and XRD reveals that they are cobalt phosphate polymorphs with different degrees of hydration.

Responses of ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change treatments along an elevation gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Zhuoting; Koch, George W.; Dijkstra, Paul; Bowker, Matthew A.; Hungate, Bruce A.

2011-01-01

Global temperature increases and precipitation changes are both expected to alter ecosystem carbon (C) cycling. We tested responses of ecosystem C cycling to simulated climate change using field manipulations of temperature and precipitation across a range of grass-dominated ecosystems along an elevation gradient in northern Arizona. In 2002, we transplanted intact plant–soil mesocosms to simulate warming and used passive interceptors and collectors to manipulate precipitation. We measured daytime ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem C exchange throughout the growing season in 2008 and 2009. Warming generally stimulated ER and photosynthesis, but had variable effects on daytime net C exchange. Increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C cycling only in the driest ecosystem at the lowest elevation, whereas decreased precipitation showed no effects on ecosystem C cycling across all ecosystems. No significant interaction between temperature and precipitation treatments was observed. Structural equation modeling revealed that in the wetter-than-average year of 2008, changes in ecosystem C cycling were more strongly affected by warming-induced reduction in soil moisture than by altered precipitation. In contrast, during the drier year of 2009, warming induced increase in soil temperature rather than changes in soil moisture determined ecosystem C cycling. Our findings suggest that warming exerted the strongest influence on ecosystem C cycling in both years, by modulating soil moisture in the wet year and soil temperature in the dry year.

Organic influences on inorganic patterns of diffusion-controlled precipitation in gels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barge, Laura M.; Nealson, Kenneth H.; Petruska, John

2010-06-01

The well-known AgNO 3/K 2CrO 4 reaction-diffusion system produces periodic bands of silver chromate precipitate in gelatin, but only randomly oriented crystals in agarose gel. We show that comparable bands can be produced in agarose gel by adding small amounts of simple organic acids (e.g., acetic acid, N-acetyl glycine, and N-acetyl alanine) that suppress crystal growth and promote formation of rounded particles of precipitate. These results indicate that α-carboxyl groups of amino acids or short peptides in gelatin under mildly acidic conditions can induce periodic band patterns in diffusion-controlled silver chromate precipitates.

Simulated drought regimes reveal community resilience and hydrological thresholds for altered decomposition.

PubMed

Rodríguez Pérez, Héctor; Borrel, Guillaume; Leroy, Céline; Carrias, Jean-François; Corbara, Bruno; Srivastava, Diane S; Céréghino, Régis

2018-05-01

Future climate scenarios forecast a 10-50% decline in rainfall in Eastern Amazonia. Altered precipitation patterns may change important ecosystem functions like decomposition through either changes in physical and chemical processes or shifts in the activity and/or composition of species. We experimentally manipulated hydroperiods (length of wet:dry cycles) in a tank bromeliad ecosystem to examine impacts on leaf litter decomposition. Gross loss of litter mass over 112 days was greatest in continuously submersed litter, lowest in continuously dry litter, and intermediate over a range of hydroperiods ranging from eight cycles of 7 wet:7 dry days to one cycle of 56 wet:56 dry days. The resilience of litter mass loss to hydroperiod length is due to a shift from biologically assisted decomposition (mostly microbial) at short wet:dry hydroperiods to physicochemical release of dissolved organic matter at longer wet:dry hydroperiods. Biologically assisted decomposition was maximized at wet:dry hydroperiods falling within the range of ambient conditions (12-22 consecutive dry days) but then declined under prolonged wet:dry hydroperiods (28 and 56 dry days. Fungal:bacterial ratios showed a similar pattern as biologically assisted decomposition to hydroperiod length. Our results suggest that microbial communities confer functional resilience to altered hydroperiod in tank bromeliad ecosystems. We predict a substantial decrease in biological activity relevant to decomposition under climate scenarios that increase consecutive dry days by 1.6- to 3.2-fold in our study area, whereas decreased frequency of dry periods will tend to increase the physicochemical component of decomposition.

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-05-01

Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ˜ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

Long– and short-term precipitation effects on soil CO2 efflux and total belowground carbon allocation

Treesearch

Chelcy R. Ford; Jason McGee; Francesca Scandellari; Erik A. Hobbie; Robert J. Mitchell

2012-01-01

Soil CO2 efflux (Esoil), the main pathway of C movement from the biosphere to the atmosphere, is critical to the terrestrial C cycle but how precipitation and soil moisture influence Esoil remains poorly understood. Here, we irrigated a longleaf pine wiregrass savanna for six years; this increased soil moisture by 41.2%. We tested how an altered precipitation regime...

Precipitation overrides warming in mediating soil nitrogen pools in an alpine grassland ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Lin, Li; Zhu, Biao; Chen, Chengrong; Zhang, Zhenhua; Wang, Qi-Bing; He, Jin-Sheng

2016-08-16

Soils in the alpine grassland store a large amount of nitrogen (N) due to slow decomposition. However, the decomposition could be affected by climate change, which has profound impacts on soil N cycling. We investigated the changes of soil total N and five labile N stocks in the topsoil, the subsoil and the entire soil profile in response to three years of experimental warming and altered precipitation in a Tibetan alpine grassland. We found that warming significantly increased soil nitrate N stock and decreased microbial biomass N (MBN) stock. Increased precipitation reduced nitrate N, dissolved organic N and amino acid N stocks, but increased MBN stock in the topsoil. No change in soil total N was detected under warming and altered precipitation regimes. Redundancy analysis further revealed that soil moisture (26.3%) overrode soil temperature (10.4%) in explaining the variations of soil N stocks across the treatments. Our results suggest that precipitation exerted stronger influence than warming on soil N pools in this mesic and high-elevation grassland ecosystem. This indicates that the projected rise in future precipitation may lead to a significant loss of dissolved soil N pools by stimulating the biogeochemical processes in this alpine grassland.

Precipitation overrides warming in mediating soil nitrogen pools in an alpine grassland ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Lin, Li; Zhu, Biao; Chen, Chengrong; Zhang, Zhenhua; Wang, Qi-Bing; He, Jin-Sheng

2016-01-01

Soils in the alpine grassland store a large amount of nitrogen (N) due to slow decomposition. However, the decomposition could be affected by climate change, which has profound impacts on soil N cycling. We investigated the changes of soil total N and five labile N stocks in the topsoil, the subsoil and the entire soil profile in response to three years of experimental warming and altered precipitation in a Tibetan alpine grassland. We found that warming significantly increased soil nitrate N stock and decreased microbial biomass N (MBN) stock. Increased precipitation reduced nitrate N, dissolved organic N and amino acid N stocks, but increased MBN stock in the topsoil. No change in soil total N was detected under warming and altered precipitation regimes. Redundancy analysis further revealed that soil moisture (26.3%) overrode soil temperature (10.4%) in explaining the variations of soil N stocks across the treatments. Our results suggest that precipitation exerted stronger influence than warming on soil N pools in this mesic and high-elevation grassland ecosystem. This indicates that the projected rise in future precipitation may lead to a significant loss of dissolved soil N pools by stimulating the biogeochemical processes in this alpine grassland. PMID:27527683

New X-Ray Technique to Characterize Nanoscale Precipitates in Aged Aluminum Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitdikov, V. D.; Murashkin, M. Yu.; Valiev, R. Z.

2017-10-01

This paper puts forward a new technique for measurement of x-ray patterns, which enables to solve the problem of identification and determination of precipitates (nanoscale phases) in metallic alloys of the matrix type. The minimum detection limit of precipitates in the matrix of the base material provided by this technique constitutes as little as 1%. The identification of precipitates in x-ray patterns and their analysis are implemented through a transmission mode with a larger radiation area, longer holding time and higher diffractometer resolution as compared to the conventional reflection mode. The presented technique has been successfully employed to identify and quantitatively describe precipitates formed in the Al alloy of the Al-Mg-Si system as a result of artificial aging. For the first time, the x-ray phase analysis has been used to identify and measure precipitates formed during the alloy artificial aging.

Hydrodynamic Fingering Instability Induced by a Precipitation Reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagatsu, Y.; Ishii, Y.; Tada, Y.; De Wit, A.

2014-07-01

We experimentally demonstrate that a precipitation reaction at the miscible interface between two reactive solutions can trigger a hydrodynamic instability due to the buildup of a locally adverse mobility gradient related to a decrease in permeability. The precipitate results from an A +B→C type of reaction when a solution containing one of the reactants is injected into a solution of the other reactant in a porous medium or a Hele-Shaw cell. Fingerlike precipitation patterns are observed upon displacement, the properties of which depend on whether A displaces B or vice versa. A mathematical modeling of the underlying mobility profile confirms that the instability originates from a local decrease in mobility driven by the localized precipitation. Nonlinear simulations of the related reaction-diffusion-convection model reproduce the properties of the instability observed experimentally. In particular, the simulations suggest that differences in diffusivity between A and B may contribute to the asymmetric characteristics of the fingering precipitation patterns.

The Impacts of Altered Precipitation Frequency and Amount on Carbon, Nitrogen, and Hydrological Processes in Subalpine Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, R. A.; Campbell, C. S.; McQueen, S.; Isupov, T.; Walker, B. J.

2011-12-01

Forecasts predict that precipitation regimes in the western US will become more variable, with dry periods becoming more frequent and with individual rainfall events becoming more extreme. In water-limited ecosystems, increased event size may reduce soil moisture stress and increase net primary production (NPP), N mineralization (Nmin), and soil water content (Θ) and potential (Ψ). In more mesic systems, the increased time between rain events may increase soil moisture stress and reduce NPP, Nmin, Θ, and Ψ. To test this hypothesis, we experimentally altered the timing and size of rainfall events and reduced ambient rainfall during the growing season for xeric, low-elevation sites and mesic high-elevation sites. Research was conducted at the Great Basin Experimental Range in Ephraim Canyon, UT, USA. The experimental treatments were (1) ambient rain, (2) 30% reduction in ambient rain, (3) 70% reduction in ambient rain, (4) reapplication of ambient rain weekly, and (5) reapplication of ambient rain every 3 weeks. During this 3-year experiment (2009-2011), we monitored soil temperature and Θ, leaf area index and NDVI, N-mineralization, soil respiration, and aboveground NPP. We calculated Ψ using soil moisture release curves. To increase the temporal scope of our results we used the DAY-CENT ecosystem model to simulate century-long impacts of precipitation changes. We found production increased with larger, less-frequent precipitation events for both our xeric and mesic sites. Large rainfall events increased the duration of production where Ψ is more negative than critical water thresholds. There were no significant changes in N-availability with altered precipitation, but the modeling results suggest that drought is a much stronger control over N-availability than precipitation timing. Our results demonstrate that both xeric and mesic systems are highly sensitive to the timing and amount of precipitation.

Green infrastructure and its catchment-scale effects: an emerging science

EPA Science Inventory

Urbanizing environments alter the hydrological cycle by redirecting stream networks for stormwater and wastewater transmission and increasing impermeable surfaces. These changes thereby accelerate the runoff of water and its constituents following precipitation events, alter evap...

[Responses of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to precipitation changes on the grassland of Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2015.

PubMed

Wang, Zhi Peng; Zhang, Xian Zhou; He, Yong Tao; Li, Meng; Shi, Pei Li; Zu, Jia Xing; Niu, Ben

2018-01-01

Precipitation change is an important factor in the inter-annual variation of grassland growth on the Tibetan Plateau. The total amount, distribution pattern and concentration time are three basic characteristics of precipitation change. The temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation change were analyzed based on climate data of 145 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau and nearby areas from 2000 to 2015. The total precipitation amount was characterized by annual precipitation, distribution pattern of precipitation during the year was characterized by improved precipitation concentration index (PCI), and precipitation centroid (PC) was defined to indicate the change in precipitation concentrated time. To better illustrate the response of grassland to precipitation change, vegetation growth status was characterized by the maximum value of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI max ). Results indicated that the annual precipitation and PCI had an apparent gradient across the whole plateau and the latest PC occurred in the southern plateau. NDVI max of alpine shrub grassland was significantly correlated with the change of PCI,increased with even distribution of precipitation during growth period, and limited by the total annual precipitation. Alpine meadow did not show significantly correlations with these three indices. The inter-annual variability of NDVI max of steppe was controlled by both PCI and PC. NDVI max of alpine desert grassland was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. In addition to annual total amount of precipitation, the distribution characteristics of precipitation should be further considered when the influence of precipitation change on different types of vegetation on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau was studied.

Low-frequency oscillations of the East Asia-Pacific teleconnection pattern and their impacts on persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lei; Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang; Ni, Yunqi

2016-06-01

Based on the daily reanalysis data from NCEP-NCAR and daily precipitation data from the China National Meteorological Information Center, an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is employed to extract the predominant oscillation modes of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern. The influences of these low-frequency modes on persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River (YHR) valley are investigated. The results indicate that the EAP pattern and rainfall in YHR valley both exhibit remarkable 10-30- and 30-60-day oscillations. The impacts of the EAP pattern on the YHR persistent heavy precipitation can be found on both the 10-30- and 30-60-day timescales—the 10-30-day scale for most cases. Composite analysis indicates that, on the 10-30-day timescale, formation of the EAP pattern in the lower and middle troposphere is determined by convective systems near the tropical western Pacific; whereas in the middle troposphere, the phase transition is jointly contributed by both the dispersion of zonal wave energies at higher latitudes and convective systems over the South China Sea. In the context of the 10-30-day EAP pattern, the anomalously abundant moisture is transported by an anomalous subtropical anticyclone system, and strong moisture convergence results from that anomalous anticyclone system and a cyclonic system in the midlatitude East Asia. Such a combination of systems persists for at least three days, contributing to the formation of persistent heavy precipitation in the YHR valley.

Spectrally monitoring the response of the biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to altered precipitation regimes

DOE PAGES

Young, Kristina E.; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-02-06

Climate change is expected to impact drylands worldwide by increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. These effects have known feedbacks to the functional roles of dryland biological soil crust communities (biocrusts), which are expected to undergo significant climate-induced changes in community structure and function. Nevertheless, our ability to monitor the status and physiology of biocrusts with remote sensing is limited due to the heterogeneous nature of dryland landscapes and the desiccation tolerance of biocrusts, which leaves them frequently photosynthetically inactive and difficult to assess. To address this critical limitation, we subjected a dominant biocrust species Syntrichia caninervis to climate-induced stressmore » in the form of small, frequent watering events, and spectrally monitored the dry mosses’ progression towards mortality. We found points of spectral sensitivity responding to experimentally-induced stress in desiccated mosses, indicating that spectral imaging is an effective tool to monitor photosynthetically inactive biocrusts. Comparing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Simple Ratio (SR), and the Normalized Pigment Chlorophyll Index (NPCI), we found NDVI minimally effective at capturing stress in precipitation-stressed dry mosses, while the SR and NPCI were highly effective. Lastly, our results suggest the strong potential for utilizing spectroscopy and chlorophyll-derived indices to monitor biocrust ecophysiological status, even when biocrusts are dry, with important implications for improving our understanding of dryland functioning.« less

Spectrally monitoring the response of the biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to altered precipitation regimes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Young, Kristina E.; Reed, Sasha C.

Climate change is expected to impact drylands worldwide by increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. These effects have known feedbacks to the functional roles of dryland biological soil crust communities (biocrusts), which are expected to undergo significant climate-induced changes in community structure and function. Nevertheless, our ability to monitor the status and physiology of biocrusts with remote sensing is limited due to the heterogeneous nature of dryland landscapes and the desiccation tolerance of biocrusts, which leaves them frequently photosynthetically inactive and difficult to assess. To address this critical limitation, we subjected a dominant biocrust species Syntrichia caninervis to climate-induced stressmore » in the form of small, frequent watering events, and spectrally monitored the dry mosses’ progression towards mortality. We found points of spectral sensitivity responding to experimentally-induced stress in desiccated mosses, indicating that spectral imaging is an effective tool to monitor photosynthetically inactive biocrusts. Comparing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Simple Ratio (SR), and the Normalized Pigment Chlorophyll Index (NPCI), we found NDVI minimally effective at capturing stress in precipitation-stressed dry mosses, while the SR and NPCI were highly effective. Lastly, our results suggest the strong potential for utilizing spectroscopy and chlorophyll-derived indices to monitor biocrust ecophysiological status, even when biocrusts are dry, with important implications for improving our understanding of dryland functioning.« less

Effects of Climate Change on Range Forage Production in the San Francisco Bay Area

PubMed Central

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; George, Melvin R.

2013-01-01

The San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA is a highly heterogeneous region in climate, topography, and habitats, as well as in its political and economic interests. Successful conservation strategies must consider various current and future competing demands for the land, and should pay special attention to livestock grazing, the dominant non-urban land-use. The main objective of this study was to predict changes in rangeland forage production in response to changes in temperature and precipitation projected by downscaled output from global climate models. Daily temperature and precipitation data generated by four climate models were used as input variables for an existing rangeland forage production model (linear regression) for California’s annual rangelands and projected on 244 12 km x 12 km grid cells for eight Bay Area counties. Climate model projections suggest that forage production in Bay Area rangelands may be enhanced by future conditions in most years, at least in terms of peak standing crop. However, the timing of production is as important as its peak, and altered precipitation patterns could mean delayed germination, resulting in shorter growing seasons and longer periods of inadequate forage quality. An increase in the frequency of extremely dry years also increases the uncertainty of forage availability. These shifts in forage production will affect the economic viability and conservation strategies for rangelands in the San Francisco Bay Area. PMID:23472102

Spectrally monitoring the response of the biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to altered precipitation regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Kristina E.; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact drylands worldwide by increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. These effects have known feedbacks to the functional roles of dryland biological soil crust communities (biocrusts), which are expected to undergo significant climate-induced changes in community structure and function. Nevertheless, our ability to monitor the status and physiology of biocrusts with remote sensing is limited due to the heterogeneous nature of dryland landscapes and the desiccation tolerance of biocrusts, which leaves them frequently photosynthetically inactive and difficult to assess. To address this critical limitation, we subjected a dominant biocrust species Syntrichia caninervis to climate-induced stress in the form of small, frequent watering events, and spectrally monitored the dry mosses’ progression towards mortality. We found points of spectral sensitivity responding to experimentally-induced stress in desiccated mosses, indicating that spectral imaging is an effective tool to monitor photosynthetically inactive biocrusts. Comparing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Simple Ratio (SR), and the Normalized Pigment Chlorophyll Index (NPCI), we found NDVI minimally effective at capturing stress in precipitation-stressed dry mosses, while the SR and NPCI were highly effective. Our results suggest the strong potential for utilizing spectroscopy and chlorophyll-derived indices to monitor biocrust ecophysiological status, even when biocrusts are dry, with important implications for improving our understanding of dryland functioning.

Steady states and linear stability analysis of precipitation pattern formation at geothermal hot springs.

PubMed

Chan, Pak Yuen; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2007-10-01

A dynamical theory of geophysical precipitation pattern formation is presented and applied to irreversible calcium carbonate (travertine) deposition. Specific systems studied here are the terraces and domes observed at geothermal hot springs, such as those at Yellowstone National Park, and speleothems, particularly stalactites and stalagmites. The theory couples the precipitation front dynamics with shallow water flow, including corrections for turbulent drag and curvature effects. In the absence of capillarity and with a laminar flow profile, the theory predicts a one-parameter family of steady state solutions to the moving boundary problem describing the precipitation front. These shapes match the measured shapes near the vent at the top of observed travertine domes well. Closer to the base of the dome, the solutions deviate from observations and circular symmetry is broken by a fluting pattern, which we show is associated with capillary forces causing thin film break-up. We relate our model to that recently proposed for stalactite growth, and calculate the linear stability spectrum of both travertine domes and stalactites. Lastly, we apply the theory to the problem of precipitation pattern formation arising from turbulent flow down an inclined plane and identify a linear instability that underlies scale-invariant travertine terrace formation at geothermal hot springs.

Steady states and linear stability analysis of precipitation pattern formation at geothermal hot springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Pak Yuen; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2007-10-01

A dynamical theory of geophysical precipitation pattern formation is presented and applied to irreversible calcium carbonate (travertine) deposition. Specific systems studied here are the terraces and domes observed at geothermal hot springs, such as those at Yellowstone National Park, and speleothems, particularly stalactites and stalagmites. The theory couples the precipitation front dynamics with shallow water flow, including corrections for turbulent drag and curvature effects. In the absence of capillarity and with a laminar flow profile, the theory predicts a one-parameter family of steady state solutions to the moving boundary problem describing the precipitation front. These shapes match the measured shapes near the vent at the top of observed travertine domes well. Closer to the base of the dome, the solutions deviate from observations and circular symmetry is broken by a fluting pattern, which we show is associated with capillary forces causing thin film break-up. We relate our model to that recently proposed for stalactite growth, and calculate the linear stability spectrum of both travertine domes and stalactites. Lastly, we apply the theory to the problem of precipitation pattern formation arising from turbulent flow down an inclined plane and identify a linear instability that underlies scale-invariant travertine terrace formation at geothermal hot springs.

Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in Iran's Lake Urmia basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi; Madani, Kaveh; Kløve, Bjørn

2018-04-01

Lake Urmia in northwest Iran, once one of the largest hypersaline lakes in the world, has shrunk by almost 90% in area and 80% in volume during the last four decades. To improve the understanding of regional differences in water availability throughout the region and to refine the existing information on precipitation variability, this study investigated the spatial pattern of precipitation for the Lake Urmia basin. Daily rainfall time series from 122 precipitation stations with different record lengths were used to extract 15 statistical descriptors comprising 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal total precipitation. Principal component analysis in association with cluster analysis identified three main homogeneous precipitation groups in the lake basin. The first sub-region (group 1) includes stations located in the center and southeast; the second sub-region (group 2) covers mostly northern and northeastern part of the basin, and the third sub-region (group 3) covers the western and southern edges of the basin. Results of principal component (PC) and clustering analyses showed that seasonal precipitation variation is the most important feature controlling the spatial pattern of precipitation in the lake basin. The 25th and 75th percentiles of winter and autumn are the most important variables controlling the spatial pattern of the first rotated principal component explaining about 32% of the total variance. Summer and spring precipitation variations are the most important variables in the second and third rotated principal components, respectively. Seasonal variation in precipitation amount and seasonality are explained by topography and influenced by the lake and westerly winds that are related to the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Despite using incomplete time series with different lengths, the identified sub-regions are physically meaningful.

Iron isotope fractionation during hydrothermal ore deposition and alteration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markl, Gregor; von Blanckenburg, Friedhelm; Wagner, Thomas

2006-06-01

Iron isotopes fractionate during hydrothermal processes. Therefore, the Fe isotope composition of ore-forming minerals characterizes either iron sources or fluid histories. The former potentially serves to distinguish between sedimentary, magmatic or metamorphic iron sources, and the latter allows the reconstruction of precipitation and redox processes. These processes take place during ore formation or alteration. The aim of this contribution is to investigate the suitability of this new isotope method as a probe of ore-related processes. For this purpose 51 samples of iron ores and iron mineral separates from the Schwarzwald region, southwest Germany, were analyzed for their iron isotope composition using multicollector ICP-MS. Further, the ore-forming and ore-altering processes were quantitatively modeled using reaction path calculations. The Schwarzwald mining district hosts mineralizations that formed discontinuously over almost 300 Ma of hydrothermal activity. Primary hematite, siderite and sulfides formed from mixing of meteoric fluids with deeper crustal brines. Later, these minerals were partly dissolved and oxidized, and secondary hematite, goethite and iron arsenates were precipitated. Two types of alteration products formed: (1) primary and high-temperature secondary Fe minerals formed between 120 and 300 °C, and (2) low-temperature secondary Fe minerals formed under supergene conditions (<100 °C). Measured iron isotope compositions are variable and cover a range in δ56Fe between -2.3‰ and +1.3‰. Primary hematite ( δ56Fe: -0.5‰ to +0.5‰) precipitated by mixing oxidizing surface waters with a hydrothermal fluid that contained moderately light Fe ( δ56Fe: -0.5‰) leached from the crystalline basement. Occasional input of CO 2-rich waters resulted in precipitation of isotopically light siderite ( δ56Fe: -1.4 to -0.7‰). The difference between hematite and siderite is compatible with published Fe isotope fractionation factors. The observed range in isotopic compositions can be accounted for by variable fractions of Fe precipitating from the fluid. Therefore, both fluid processes and mass balance can be inferred from Fe isotopes. Supergene weathering of siderite by oxidizing surface waters led to replacement of isotopically light primary siderite by similarly light secondary hematite and goethite, respectively. Because this replacement entails quantitative transfer of iron from precursor mineral to product, no significant isotope fractionation is produced. Hence, Fe isotopes potentially serve to identify precursors in ore alteration products. Goethites from oolitic sedimentary iron ores were also analyzed. Their compositional range appears to indicate oxidative precipitation from relatively uniform Fe dissolved in coastal water. This comprehensive iron isotope study illustrates the potential of the new technique in deciphering ore formation and alteration processes. Isotope ratios are strongly dependent on and highly characteristic of fluid and precipitation histories. Therefore, they are less suitable to provide information on Fe sources. However, it will be possible to unravel the physico-chemical processes leading to the formation, dissolution and redeposition of ores in great detail.

Trajectories of grassland ecosystem change in response to experimental manipulations of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Alan; Smith, Melinda; Collins, Scott; Blair, John; Briggs, John

2010-05-01

Understanding and predicting the dynamics of ecological systems has always been central to Ecology. Today, ecologists recognize that in addition to natural and human-caused disturbances, a fundamentally different type of ecosystem change is being driven by the combined and cumulative effects of anthropogenic activities affecting earth's climate and biogeochemical cycles. This type of change is historically unprecedented in magnitude, and as a consequence, such alterations are leading to trajectories of change in ecological responses that differ radically from those observed in the past. Through both short- and long-term experiments, we have been trying to better understand the mechanisms and consequences of ecological change in grassland ecosystems likely to result from changes in precipitation regimes. We have manipulated a key resource for most grasslands (water) and modulators of water availability (temperature) in field experiments that vary from 1-17 years in duration, and used even longer-term monitoring data from the Konza Prairie LTER program to assess how grassland communities and ecosystems will respond to changes in water availability. Trajectories of change in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in sites subjected to 17 years of soil water augmentation were strongly non-linear with a marked increase in the stimulation of ANPP after year 8 (from 25% to 65%). Lags in alterations in grassland community composition are posited to be responsible for the form of this trajectory of change. In contrast, responses in ANPP to chronic increases in soil moisture variability appear to have decreased over a 10-yr period of manipulation, although the net effects of more variable precipitation inputs were to reduce ANPP, alter the genetic structure of the dominant grass species, increase soil nitrogen availability and reduce soil respiration. The loss of sensitivity to increased resource variability was not reflected in adjacent plots where precipitation was manipulated for only a single year. And when similar short-term experimental manipulations of precipitation variability were conducted in more arid grasslands, responses in ANPP were opposite those in mesic grassland. This suggests that grassland responses to alterations in precipitation inputs may vary dramatically depending on the long-term hydrologic regime.

Warming and drought reduce temperature sensitivity of nitrogen transformations.

PubMed

Novem Auyeung, Dolaporn S; Suseela, Vidya; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2013-02-01

Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important negative feedback to climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Precipitation frequency alters peatland ecosystem structure and CO2 exchange: Contrasting effects on moss, sedge, and shrub communities.

PubMed

Radu, Danielle D; Duval, Tim P

2018-05-01

Climate projections forecast a redistribution of seasonal precipitation for much of the globe into fewer, larger events spaced between longer dry periods, with negligible changes in seasonal rainfall totals. This intensification of the rainfall regime is expected to alter near-surface water availability, which will affect plant performance and carbon uptake. This could be especially important in peatland systems, where large stores of carbon are tightly coupled to water surpluses limiting decomposition. Here, we examined the role of precipitation frequency on vegetation growth and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) balances for communities dominated by a Sphagnum moss, a sedge, and an ericaceous shrub in a cool temperate poor fen. Field plots and laboratory monoliths received one of three rainfall frequency treatments, ranging from one event every three days to one event every 14 days, while total rain delivered in a two-week cycle and the entire season to each treatment remained the same. Separating incident rain into fewer but larger events increased vascular cover in all peatland communities: vascular plant cover increased 6× in the moss-dominated plots, nearly doubled in the sedge plots, and tripled in the shrub plots in Low-Frequency relative to High-Frequency treatments. Gross ecosystem productivity was lowest in moss communities receiving low-frequency rain, but higher in sedge and shrub communities under the same conditions. Net ecosystem exchange followed this pattern: fewer events with longer dry periods increased CO 2 flux to the atmosphere from the moss while vascular plant-dominated communities became more of a sink for CO 2 . Results of this study suggest that changes to rainfall frequency already occurring and predicted to continue will lead to increased vascular plant cover in peatlands and will impact their carbon-sink function. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Large scale meteorological patterns and moisture sources during precipitation extremes over South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehmood, S.; Ashfaq, M.; Evans, K. J.; Black, R. X.; Hsu, H. H.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation during summer season has shown an increasing trend across South Asia in recent decades, causing an exponential increase in weather related losses. Here we combine a cluster analyses technique (Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering) with a Lagrangian based moisture analyses technique to investigate potential commonalities in the characteristics of the large scale meteorological patterns (LSMP) and moisture anomalies associated with the observed extreme precipitation events, and their representation in the Department of Energy model ACME. Using precipitation observations from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE), and atmospheric variables from Era-Interim Reanalysis, we first identify LSMP both in upper and lower troposphere that are responsible for wide spread precipitation extreme events during 1980-2015 period. For each of the selected extreme event, we perform moisture source analyses to identify major evaporative sources that sustain anomalous moisture supply during the course of the event, with a particular focus on local terrestrial moisture recycling. Further, we perform similar analyses on two sets of five-member ensemble of ACME model (1-degree and ¼ degree) to investigate the ability of ACME model in simulating precipitation extremes associated with each of the LSMP patterns and associated anomalous moisture sourcing from each of the terrestrial and oceanic evaporative region. Comparison of low and high-resolution model configurations provides insight about the influence of horizontal grid spacing in the simulation of extreme precipitation and the governing mechanisms.

The phenology pattern of rubber trees in plantation and its impacts on rubber tree structure, water and carbon cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Mudd, R. G.

2012-12-01

Commercial rubber (Hevea Brasiliensis) is originally native to the Amazon rainforest and it has become one of the important commercial crops in Mainland Southeast Asia. Similarly to some trees species in Amazon but quite distinctly from other native forests in Southeast Asia, rubber tree sheds its leaves in the middle of dry season and flushes new leaves before the onset of the wet season. Moreover, the mountane mainland Southeast Asia is heavily influenced by the monsoon climate which has most the precipitation in the wet season while almost no rainfall in the dry season. It is believed that the phenology pattern of rubber interacted with local climate would not only regulate the seasonal rubber plantation structures but also further alter the local energy and water budget. However, it is still lack of solid understandings of how the phenology patterns in terms of the leaf area index (LAI) changes of the rubber tree response to environmental drivers. The study tries to shed lights on the issue from analyses of a various types of in-situ field data combined with 3 years' tower flux measurements collected within the rubber plantations. It concludes that: 1) Both the monthly tree height increment and the monthly biomass accumulation are highly correlated with the LAI changes, which have the low rate of changes in the dry season versus the relative high rate of changes in the wet season; 2) the daily evapotranspiration (ET) of the rubber tree is very sensitive to the daily LAI changes in the dry season (R2 > 0.9); 3) the LAI changes, especially the leaf drops, are majorly determined by the accumulated precipitation in the past three months.

Development of Representative Rainfall Periods for Green Infrastructure Design: Connecting the Dots Between Climate, Urban Hydrology and Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albright, C. M.; Traver, R.; Wadzuk, B.

2017-12-01

Analysis of local-to-regional climate data is critical in understanding how changing patterns in rainfall and other atmospheric conditions can affect urban hydrology. Urbanization has caused hydrologic and ecologic modifications to our land surfaces, and altered the dynamics of urban water cycle in complex ways. Green infrastructure (GI) systems, in their simplest form, reduce runoff and flooding, prevent combined sewer overflows and improve quality of receiving waters. However, when viewed through a more holistic lens, GI systems sit at the nexus of hydrology, climate and energy, yet are rarely designed to account for the impacts of these intersections. We must assess urban hydrologic systems beyond their response to a single event or design storm, incorporating multiple temporal scales and all hydrologic processes. This is of utmost importance to design and characterization of urban GI systems because the resilience of these systems will be dictated by their ability to adapt to future behavior of extreme weather patterns and climate. In this study, we characterize long-term hydrologic conditions in Philadelphia to identify periods of record that are most representative of regional climate characteristics, including a representative rainfall year and longer representative periods. Utility of these datasets will be demonstrated by showing that GI systems are able to sustain effective performance for most expected annual precipitation events. Connections between atmospheric (precipitation and temperature) patterns, GI systems and potential removal mechanisms in the urban hydrologic cycle will be presented for Philadelphia and cities with similar climate characteristics. Establishing such connections is critically needed to not only validate what is already known about urban GI, but more importantly, to advance theory and practice by linking the hydrologic benefits of urban GI to broader concepts such as risk, mitigation of extreme events and sustainable communities.

A data centred method to estimate and map how the local distribution of daily precipitation is changing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nick

2014-05-01

Estimates of how our climate is changing are needed locally in order to inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on a method to transform daily observations of precipitation into patterns of local climate change. We develop a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes, to specifically address the challenges presented by daily precipitation data. We extract from the data quantities that characterize the changes in time of the likelihood of daily precipitation above a threshold and of the relative amount of precipitation in those days. Our method is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of precipitation distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily precipitation from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. We treat geographical location and precipitation as independent variables and thus obtain as outputs the pattern of change at a given threshold of precipitation and with geographical location. This is model- independent, thus providing data of direct value in model calibration and assessment. Our results show regionally consistent patterns of systematic increase in precipitation on the wettest days, and of drying across all days which is of potential value in adaptation planning. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287; D. A. Stainforth, 2013, S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

Leaf endophytic fungus interacts with precipitation to alter belowground microbial communities in primary successional dunes

PubMed Central

Bell-Dereske, Lukas; Takacs-Vesbach, Cristina; Kivlin, Stephanie N.; Emery, Sarah M.; Rudgers, Jennifer A.

2017-01-01

Abstract Understanding interactions between above- and belowground components of ecosystems is an important next step in community ecology. These interactions may be fundamental to predicting ecological responses to global change because indirect effects occurring through altered species interactions can outweigh or interact with the direct effects of environmental drivers. In a multiyear field experiment (2010–2015), we tested how experimental addition of a mutualistic leaf endophyte (Epichloë amarillans) associated with American beachgrass (Ammophila breviligulata) interacted with an altered precipitation regime (±30%) to affect the belowground microbial community. Epichloë addition increased host root biomass at the plot scale, but reduced the length of extraradical arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungal hyphae in the soil. Under ambient precipitation alone, the addition of Epichloë increased root biomass per aboveground tiller and reduced the diversity of AM fungi in A. breviligulata roots. Furthermore, with Epichloë added, the diversity of root-associated bacteria declined with higher soil moisture, whereas in its absence, bacterial diversity increased with higher soil moisture. Thus, the aboveground fungal mutualist not only altered the abundance and composition of belowground microbial communities but also affected how belowground communities responded to climate, suggesting that aboveground microbes have potential for cascading influences on community dynamics and ecosystem processes that occur belowground. PMID:28334408

The exceptionally wet year of 2014 over Greece: a statistical and synoptical-atmospheric analysis over the region of Thessaloniki

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolika, Konstantia; Maheras, Panagiotis; Anagnostopoulou, Christina

2018-05-01

The highest rainfall totals (912.2 mm) and the largest number of raindays (133 days), since 1958, were recorded in Thessaloniki during the year of 2014. Extreme precipitation heights were also observed on a seasonal, monthly and daily basis. The examined year presented the highest daily rainfall intensity, the maximum daily precipitation and the largest number of heavy precipitation days (greater than 10 mm), and it also exceeded the previous amounts of precipitation of very wet (95th percentile) and extremely wet (99th percentile) days. According to the automatic circulation type classification scheme that was used, it was found that during this exceptionally wet year, the frequency of occurrence of cyclonic types at the near surface geopotential level increases, while the same types decreased at a higher atmospheric level (500 hPa). The prevailing type was type C which is located at the centre of the study area (Greece), but several other cyclonic types changed during this year not only their frequency but also their percentage of rainfall as well as their daily precipitation intensity. It should be highlighted that these findings differentiated on the seasonal-scale analysis. Moreover, out of the three teleconnection patterns that were examined (Scandinavian Pattern, Eastern Mediterranean Teleconnection Pattern and North Sea-Caspian Pattern), the Scandinavian one (SCAND) was detected during the most of the months of 2014 meaning that it was highly associated with intense precipitation over Greece.

Reorganization of river networks under changing spatiotemporal precipitation patterns: An optimal channel network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abed-Elmdoust, Armaghan; Miri, Mohammad-Ali; Singh, Arvind

2016-11-01

We investigate the impact of changing nonuniform spatial and temporal precipitation patterns on the evolution of river networks. To achieve this, we develop a two-dimensional optimal channel network (OCN) model with a controllable rainfall distribution to simulate the evolution of river networks, governed by the principle of minimum energy expenditure, inside a prescribed boundary. We show that under nonuniform precipitation conditions, river networks reorganize significantly toward new patterns with different geomorphic and hydrologic signatures. This reorganization is mainly observed in the form of migration of channels of different orders, widening or elongation of basins as well as formation and extinction of channels and basins. In particular, when the precipitation gradient is locally increased, the higher-order channels, including the mainstream river, migrate toward regions with higher precipitation intensity. Through pertinent examples, the reorganization of the drainage network is quantified via stream parameters such as Horton-Strahler and Tokunaga measures, order-based channel total length and river long profiles obtained via simulation of three-dimensional basin topography, while the hydrologic response of the evolved network is investigated using metrics such as hydrograph and power spectral density of simulated streamflows at the outlet of the network. In addition, using OCNs, we investigate the effect of orographic precipitation patterns on multicatchment landscapes composed of several interacting basins. Our results show that network-inspired methods can be utilized as insightful and versatile models for directly exploring the effects of climate change on the evolution of river drainage systems.

A Study of Heavy Precipitation Events in Taiwan During 10-13 August, 1994. Part 2; Mesoscale Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei Kuo; Chen, C.-S.; Jia, Y.; Baker, D.; Lang, S.; Wetzel, P.; Lau, W. K.-M.

2001-01-01

Several heavy precipitation episodes occurred over Taiwan from August 10 to 13, 1994. Precipitation patterns and characteristics are quite different between the precipitation events that occurred from August 10 and I I and from August 12 and 13. In Part I (Chen et al. 2001), the environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using the EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. In this study (Part II), the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the precipitation characteristics of these heavy precipitation events. Various physical processes (schemes) developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (i.e., cloud microphysics scheme, radiative transfer model, and land-soil-vegetation surface model) have recently implemented into the MM5. These physical packages are described in the paper, Two way interactive nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 45, 15 and 5 km. The model results indicated that Cloud physics, land surface and radiation processes generally do not change the location (horizontal distribution) of heavy precipitation. The Goddard 3-class ice scheme produced more rainfall than the 2-class scheme. The Goddard multi-broad-band radiative transfer model reduced precipitation compared to a one-broad band (emissivity) radiation model. The Goddard land-soil-vegetation surface model also reduce the rainfall compared to a simple surface model in which the surface temperature is computed from a Surface energy budget following the "force-re store" method. However, model runs including all Goddard physical processes enhanced precipitation significantly for both cases. The results from these runs are in better agreement with observations. Despite improved simulations using different physical schemes, there are still some deficiencies in the model simulations. Some potential problems are discussed. Sensitivity tests (removing either terrain or radiative processes) are performed to identify the physical processes that determine the precipitation patterns and characteristics for heavy rainfall events. These sensitivity tests indicated that terrain can play a major role in determining the exact location for both precipitation events. The terrain can also play a major role in determining the intensity of precipitation for both events. However, it has a large impact on one event but a smaller one on the other. The radiative processes are also important for determining, the precipitation patterns for one case but. not the other. The radiative processes can also effect the total rainfall for both cases to different extents.

Extreme precipitation patterns and reductions of terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes

Treesearch

Yongguang Zhang; M. Susan Moran; Mark A. Nearing; Guillermo E. Ponce Campos; Alfredo R. Huete; Anthony R. Buda; David D. Bosch; Stacey A. Gunter; Stanley G. Kitchen; W. Henry McNab; Jack A. Morgan; Mitchel P. McClaran; Diane S. Montoya; Debra P.C. Peters; Patrick J. Starks

2013-01-01

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more heavy rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated the effects of these climatic conditions on aboveground net primary...

Scaling Linguistic Characterization of Precipitation Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Primo, C.; Gutierrez, J. M.

2003-04-01

Rainfall variability is influenced by changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall. This problem is of great importance for hydrological, agricultural and ecological applications. Rainfall averages, or accumulations, are widely used as standard climatic parameters. However different aggregation schemes may lead to the same average or accumulated values. In this paper we present a fractal method to characterize different aggregation schemes. The method provides scaling exponents characterizing weekly or monthly rainfall patterns for a given station. To this aim, we establish an analogy with linguistic analysis, considering precipitation as a discrete variable (e.g., rain, no rain). Each weekly, or monthly, symbolic precipitation sequence of observed precipitation is then considered as a "word" (in this case, a binary word) which defines a specific weekly rainfall pattern. Thus, each site defines a "language" characterized by the words observed in that site during a period representative of the climatology. Then, the more variable the observed weekly precipitation sequences, the more complex the obtained language. To characterize these languages, we first applied the Zipf's method obtaining scaling histograms of rank ordered frequencies. However, to obtain significant exponents, the scaling must be maintained some orders of magnitude, requiring long sequences of daily precipitation which are not available at particular stations. Thus this analysis is not suitable for applications involving particular stations (such as regionalization). Then, we introduce an alternative fractal method applicable to data from local stations. The so-called Chaos-Game method uses Iterated Function Systems (IFS) for graphically representing rainfall languages, in a way that complex languages define complex graphical patterns. The box-counting dimension and the entropy of the resulting patterns are used as linguistic parameters to quantitatively characterize the complexity of the patterns. We illustrate the high climatological discrimination power of the linguistic parameters in the Iberian peninsula, when compared with other standard techniques (such as seasonal mean accumulated precipitation). As an example, standard and linguistic parameters are used as inputs for a clustering regionalization method, comparing the resulting clusters.

Modeling Patterns of Precipitation Phase in the Central Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strikas, O.; Pavelsky, T.

2013-12-01

Snowpack provides 75% of summer hydrologic flow in the western United States. This summer flow is vitally important in California, the country's leading producer of agriculture, with $43.5 billion dollars in cash receipts in 2011. Snowpack in the California Sierra Nevada has declined by approximately half from 1900 to 1990. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model at a 3km resolution to understand the critical temperature window at which both snow and rain fall for the Central Sierra Nevada during the 2002 water year. Results suggest that temperature and snow fraction [snowfall / (snowfall + rainfall)] share a logistic relationship with the snow fraction being 1 until approximately 272 K, then the snow fraction decreases by approximately 22%/K leveling at 0 snow fraction at 276.5 K. We further examine the spatial patterns of temperatures, precipitation amounts, and precipitation types in the Sierra Nevada to determine the areas of greatest potential snow to rain transition under a future warmer climate. Preliminary results suggest that the high risk areas are at the low to mid elevations. This research provides evidence that even a minor increase in temperature (+0.5 K) will yield changes in spring and summer hydrographs for the region. The spatial variability of IPCC temperature regime change for 2050 and 2100 will be downscaled for a higher resolution prediction of precipitation. It is currently under investigation how the proposed IPCC (A1 and B2) predictions of climate change for the region by 2050 (+2.7 K; +1.6 K ) and 2100 (+4.4 K; +2.7 K) will alter the corresponding annual river hydrographs. Given the complex topography of the Sierra Nevada, several spatial interpolations using GIS and statistical algorithms will be executed to render this high resolution (3km) output. Other future work with collaborators intends to model the agricultural risk associated with our predicted changes. This plot demonstrates the relation between temperature and snow fraction. The red line represents 273 K. The Loess regression (and its standard error) is shown in black (gray). It indicates a snow fraction decrease that begins 272.5 K and finishes with 100% rain at 277.5 K.

Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

2011-12-01

Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region receives. Our results indicate that the causes of hydrologic fluctuations are spatially diverse and that future projections will need to consider more than just thermodynamic changes for accurate regional predictions.

Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Fangxing; Dong, Buwen; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

2018-02-01

Since the mid-1990s precipitation trends over eastern China display a dipole pattern, characterized by positive anomalies in the south and negative anomalies in the north, named as the Southern-Flood-Northern-Drought (SFND) pattern. This work investigates the drivers of decadal changes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the dynamical mechanisms involved, by using a coupled climate model (specifically an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model) forced by changes in (1) anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), (2) anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and (3) the combined effects of both GHG and AA (All Forcing) between two periods across the mid-1990s. The model experiment forced by changes in All Forcing shows a dipole pattern of response in precipitation over China that is similar to the observed SFND pattern across the mid-1990s, which suggests that anthropogenic forcing changes played an important role in the observed decadal changes. Furthermore, the experiments with separate forcings indicate that GHG and AA forcing dominate different parts of the SFND pattern. In particular, changes in GHG increase precipitation over southern China, whilst changes in AA dominate in the drought conditions over northern China. Increases in GHG cause increased moisture transport convergence over eastern China, which leads to increased precipitation. The AA forcing changes weaken the EASM, which lead to divergent wind anomalies over northern China and reduced precipitation.

Hyperspectral mapping of alteration assemblages within a hydrothermal vug at the Haughton impact structure, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenberger, Rebecca N.; Mustard, John F.; Osinski, Gordon R.; Tornabene, Livio L.; Pontefract, Alexandra J.; Marion, Cassandra L.; Flemming, Roberta L.; Wilson, Janette H.; Cloutis, Edward A.

2016-12-01

Meteorite impacts on Earth and Mars can generate hydrothermal systems that alter the primary mineralogies of rocks and provide suitable environments for microbial colonization. We investigate a calcite-marcasite-bearing vug at the 23 km diameter Haughton impact structure, Devon Island, Nunavut, Canada, using imaging spectroscopy of the outcrop in the field (0.65-1.1 μm) and samples in the laboratory (0.4-2.5 μm), point spectroscopy (0.35-2.5 μm), major element chemistry, and X-ray diffraction analyses. The mineral assemblages mapped at the outcrop include marcasite; marcasite with minor gypsum and jarosite; fibroferrite and copiapite with minor gypsum and melanterite; gypsum, Fe3+ oxides, and jarosite; and calcite, gypsum, clay, microcline, and quartz. Hyperspectral mapping of alteration phases shows spatial patterns that illuminate changes in alteration conditions and formation of specific mineral phases. Marcasite formed from the postimpact hydrothermal system under reducing conditions, while subsequent weathering oxidized the marcasite at low temperatures and water/rock ratios. The acidic fluids resulting from the oxidation collected on flat-lying portions of the outcrop, precipitating fibroferrite + copiapite. That assemblage then likely dissolved, and the changing chemistry and pH resulting from interaction with the calcite-rich host rock formed gypsum-bearing red coatings. These results have implications for understanding water-rock interactions and habitabilities at this site and on Mars.

Relations between productivity, climate, and normalized difference vegetation index in the central Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jue

Understanding the influences of climate on productivity remains a major challenge in landscape ecology. Satellite remote sensing of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) provides a useful tool to study landscape patterns, based on generalization of local measurements, and to examine relations between climate and variation in productivity. This dissertation examines temporal and spatial relations between NDVI, productivity, and climatic factors over the course of nine years in the central Great Plains. Two general findings emerge: (1) integrated NDVI is a reliable measure of production, as validated with ground-based productivity measurements; and (2) precipitation is the primary factor that determines spatial and temporal patterns of NDVI. NDVI, integrated over appropriate time intervals, is strongly correlated with ground productivity measurements in forests, grasslands, and croplands. Most tree productivity measurements (tree ring size, tree diameter growth, and seed production) are strongly correlated with NDVI integrated for a period during the early growing season; foliage production is most strongly correlated with NDVI integrated over the entire growing season; and tree height growth corresponds with NDVI integrate during the previous growing season. Similarly, productivity measurements for herbaceous plants (grassland biomass and crop yield) are strongly correlated with NDVI. Within the growing season, the temporal pattern of grassland biomass production covaries with NDVI, with a four-week lag time. Across years, grassland biomass production covaries with NDVI integrated from part to all of the current growing season. Corn and wheat yield are most strongly related to NDVI integrated from late June to early August and from late April to mid-May, respectively. Precipitation strongly influences both temporal and spatial patterns of NDVI, while temperature influences NDVI only during the early and late growing season. In terms of temporal patterns, NDVI integrated over the growing season is strongly correlated with precipitation received during the current growing season plus the seven preceding months (fifteen month period); NDVI within the growing season responds to changes in precipitation with a four to eight week lag time; and major precipitation events lead to changes in NDVI with a two to four week lag time. Temperature has a positive correlation with NDVI during the early and late growing season, and a weak negative correlation during the middle of the growing season. In terms of spatial patterns, average precipitation is a strong predictor of the major east-west gradient of NDVI. Deviation from average precipitation explains most of the year-to-year variation in spatial patterns. NDVI and precipitation deviations from average covary (both positive or both negative) for 60--95% of the total land area in Kansas. Minimum and average temperatures are positively correlated with NDVI, but temperature deviation from average is generally not correlated with NDVI deviation from average. The strong relationships between NDVI and productivity, and between precipitation and NDVI, along with detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns for our study region, provides the basis for prediction of productivity at landscape scales under different climate regimes.

Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

2017-12-01

Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

2018-05-01

This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

Interactions between aerosol absorption, thermodynamics, dynamics, and microphysics and their impacts on a multiple-cloud system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seoung Soo; Li, Zhanqing; Mok, Jungbin; Ahn, Myoung-Hwan; Kim, Byung-Gon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Jung, Chang-Hoon; Yoo, Hye Lim

2017-12-01

This study investigates how the increasing concentration of black carbon aerosols, which act as radiation absorbers as well as agents for the cloud-particle nucleation, affects stability, dynamics and microphysics in a multiple-cloud system using simulations. Simulations show that despite increases in stability due to increasing concentrations of black carbon aerosols, there are increases in the averaged updraft mass fluxes (over the whole simulation domain and period). This is because aerosol-enhanced evaporative cooling intensifies convergence near the surface. This increase in the intensity of convergence induces an increase in the frequency of updrafts with the low range of speeds, leading to the increase in the averaged updraft mass fluxes. The increase in the frequency of updrafts induces that in the number of condensation entities and this leads to more condensation and cloud liquid that acts to be a source of the accretion of cloud liquid by precipitation. Hence, eventually, there is more accretion that offsets suppressed autoconversion, which results in negligible changes in cumulative precipitation as aerosol concentrations increase. The increase in the frequency of updrafts with the low range of speeds alters the cloud-system organization (represented by cloud-depth spatiotemporal distributions and cloud-cell population) by supporting more low-depth clouds. The altered organization in turn alters precipitation spatiotemporal distributions by generating more weak precipitation events. Aerosol-induced reduction in solar radiation that reaches the surface induces more occurrences of small-value surface heat fluxes, which in turn supports the more low-depth clouds and weak precipitation together with the greater occurrence of low-speed updrafts.

The possible physical mechanism for the EAP-SR co-action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhiqiang; Feng, Guolin; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Huang, Gang

2017-11-01

The anomalous characteristics of summer precipitation and atmospheric circulation in the East Asia-West Pacific Region (EA-WP) associated with the co-action of East Asia/Pacific teleconnection-Silk Road teleconnection (EAP-SR) are investigated in this study. The compositions of EAP-SR phase anomalies can be expressed as pattern I (+ +), pattern II (+ -), pattern III (- -), and pattern IV (- +) using EAP and SR indices. It is found that the spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies in EA-WP corresponding to pattern I (III) shows a tripole structure in the meridional direction and a zonal dipole structure in the subtropical region, while pattern II (IV) presents a tripole pattern in meridional direction with compressed and continuous anomalies in the zonal direction over the subtropical region. The similar meridional and zonal structures are also found in the geopotential height anomalies at 500-hPa, as well as wind anomalies and moisture convergence at 850-hPa. Finally, a schematic mechanism for the EAP-SR co-action upon the summer precipitation in EA-WP is built: (1) Pattern I (III) exhibits that the negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over tropical East Pacific may cause the enhanced (weakened) convective activity dominating the West Pacific, trigger the positive (negative) EAP teleconnection and produce more (less) precipitation. Besides, the negative (positive) SST anomalies over the Indonesia Maritime Continent (IMC) may further weaken (strengthen) anomalous downward (upward) motion over the South China Sea (SCS), cause negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies at the middle troposphere and surrounding regions through the function of the tropical Hadley circulation. Then the negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies could motivate the positive (negative) EAP teleconnection through the northward propagation of wave-activity perturbation. Meanwhile, a positive (negative) geopotential height anomalous pattern over Eastern Europe motivates a Rossby wave train propagation from Western Europe to west-central Asia. This circumstance can cause suppressed (enhanced) convection and less (more) precipitation over northwestern India and Pakistan, which could strengthen the negative (positive) geopotential height and positive (negative) vorticity anomalies over central East Asia, resulting in a negative (positive) SR teleconnection along the Asian jet stream. A positive (negative) lobe over the Korean Peninsula and Japan corresponding to SR overlaps with a positive (negative) lobe of EAP, which strengthens the anomalous phase contrast on both sides of 120°E. Accordingly, summer precipitation anomalies in EA-WP exhibit the meridional tripole pattern and the zonal dipole pattern. (2) Pattern II (IV) indicates that the normal SST anomalies over the tropical East Pacific cause the weak tele-impact on the tropical West Pacific, while the positive (negative) SST anomalies over the IMC will lead to a negative (positive) lobe of EAP over the subtropical region. This circumstance can weaken the positive (negative) lobe of SR over subtropical region, causing compressed and continuous negative (positive) anomalies of 500-hPa geopotential height and positive (negative) surface precipitation anomalies from central East China to Japan.

Analysis of watershed topography effects on summer precipitation variability in the southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohoulande Djebou, Dagbegnon C.; Singh, Vijay P.; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.

2014-04-01

With climate change, precipitation variability is projected to increase. The present study investigates the potential interactions between watershed characteristics and precipitation variability. The watershed is considered as a functional unit that may impact seasonal precipitation. The study uses historical precipitation data from 370 meteorological stations over the last five decades, and digital elevation data from regional watersheds in the southwestern United States. This domain is part of the North American Monsoon region, and the summer period (June-July-August, JJA) was considered. Based on an initial analysis for 1895-2011, the JJA precipitation accounts, on average, for 22-43% of the total annual precipitation, with higher percentages in the arid part of the region. The unique contribution of this research is that entropy theory is used to address precipitation variability in time and space. An entropy-based disorder index was computed for each station's precipitation record. The JJA total precipitation and number of precipitation events were considered in the analysis. The precipitation variability potentially induced by watershed topography was investigated using spatial regionalization combining principal component and cluster analysis. It was found that the disorder in precipitation total and number of events tended to be higher in arid regions. The spatial pattern showed that the entropy-based variability in precipitation amount and number of events gradually increased from east to west in the southwestern United States. Regarding the watershed topography influence on summer precipitation patterns, hilly relief has a stabilizing effect on seasonal precipitation variability in time and space. The results show the necessity to include watershed topography in global and regional climate model parameterizations.

From the clouds to the ground - snow precipitation patterns vs. snow accumulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerber, Franziska; Besic, Nikola; Mott, Rebecca; Gabella, Marco; Germann, Urs; Bühler, Yves; Marty, Mauro; Berne, Alexis; Lehning, Michael

2017-04-01

Knowledge about snow distribution and snow accumulation patterns is important and valuable for different applications such as the prediction of seasonal water resources or avalanche forecasting. Furthermore, accumulated snow on the ground is an important ground truth for validating meteorological and climatological model predictions of precipitation in high mountains and polar regions. Snow accumulation patterns are determined by many different processes from ice crystal nucleation in clouds to snow redistribution by wind and avalanches. In between, snow precipitation undergoes different dynamical and microphysical processes, such as ice crystal growth, aggregation and riming, which determine the growth of individual particles and thereby influence the intensity and structure of the snowfall event. In alpine terrain the interaction of different processes and the topography (e.g. lifting condensation and low level cloud formation, which may result in a seeder-feeder effect) may lead to orographic enhancement of precipitation. Furthermore, the redistribution of snow particles in the air by wind results in preferential deposition of precipitation. Even though orographic enhancement is addressed in numerous studies, the relative importance of micro-physical and dynamically induced mechanisms on local snowfall amounts and especially snow accumulation patterns is hardly known. To better understand the relative importance of different processes on snow precipitation and accumulation we analyze snowfall and snow accumulation between January and March 2016 in Davos (Switzerland). We compare MeteoSwiss operational weather radar measurements on Weissfluhgipfel to a spatially continuous snow accumulation map derived from airborne digital sensing (ADS) snow height for the area of Dischma valley in the vicinity of the weather radar. Additionally, we include snow height measurements from automatic snow stations close to the weather radar. Large-scale radar snow accumulation patterns show a snowfall gradient consistent with the prevailing wind direction. Deriving snow accumulation based on radar data is challenging as the close-ground precipitation patters cannot be resolved by the radar due to shielding and ground clutter in highly complex terrain. Nonetheless, radar measurements show distinct patterns of snowfall and accumulation, which may be the result of orographic enhancement. Station-based snow accumulation measurements are in reasonable agreement with the estimated large-scale radar snow accumulation. The ADS-based snow accumulation maps feature much smaller scale snow accumulation patterns likely due to close-ground wind effects and snow redistribution on top of an altitudinal gradient. To evaluate microphysical processes and patterns influenced by the topography we run a hydrometeor classification on the radar data. The relative importance of topographically induced effects on snow accumulation patterns is investigated based on vertical cross sections of hydrometeor data and corresponding snow accumulation.

Quantitative analysis of precipitation over Fukushima to understand the wet deposition process in March 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yatagai, A.; Onda, Y.; Watanabe, A.

2012-04-01

The Great East Japan Earthquake caused a severe accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP), leading to the emission of large amounts of radioactive pollutants into the environment. The transport and diffusion of these radioactive pollutants in the atmosphere caused a disaster for residents in and around Fukushima. Studies have sought to understand the transport, diffusion, and deposition process, and to understand the movement of radioactive pollutants through the soil, vegetation, rivers, and groundwater. However, a detailed simulation and understanding of the distribution of radioactive compounds depend on a simulation of precipitation and on the information on the timing of the emission of these radioactive pollutants from the NPP. Past nuclear expansion studies have demonstrated the importance of wet deposition in distributing pollutants. Hence, this study examined the quantitative precipitation pattern in March 2011 using rain-gauge observations and X-band radar data from Fukushima University. We used the AMeDAS rain-gauge network data of 1) the Japan Meteorological Agency (1273 stations in Japan) and 2) the Water Information System (47 stations in Fukushima prefecture) and 3) the rain-gauge data of the Environmental Information Network of NTT Docomo (30 stations in Fukushima) to construct 0.05-degree mesh data using the same method used to create the APHRODITE daily grid precipitation data (Yatagai et al., 2009). Since some AMeDAS data for the coastal region were lost due to the earthquake, the complementary network of 2) and 3) yielded better precipitation estimates. The data clarified that snowfall was observed on the night of Mar 15 into the morning of Mar 16 throughout Fukushima prefecture. This had an important effect on the radioactive contamination pattern in Fukushima prefecture. The precipitation pattern itself does not show one-on-one correspondence with the contamination pattern. While the pollutants transported northeast of the NPP and through north Kanto (about 200 km southwest of Fukushima and, 100 km north of Tokyo) went to the northwest, the timing of the precipitation causing the fallout, i.e., wet-deposition, is important. Although the hourly Radar-AMeDAS 1-km-mesh precipitation data of JMA are available publically, it does not represent the precipitation pattern in Nakadori, in central Fukushima prefecture. Hence, we used 10-minute interval X-band radar, located in north Nakadori to determine the start and detailed horizontal pattern (120-m mesh) of the precipitation. Since 1) and 3) are 10-minute intervals and 2) is hourly data, we are developing hourly gridded data and using 1-3) to verify and quantify the rain rate observed by the Fukushima University X-band data.

Driver detection of water availability changes in a large Alpine river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallucci, Stefano; Majone, Bruno; Bellin, Alberto

2017-04-01

The Alpine region is widely recognised as an area with a particularly sensitive environment, where climate change is expected to modify the river flow regime, which effects on freshwater ecosystems and water resources have not been explored at depth. In the middle of the last century the Alpine region has been characterised by an intensive exploitation of water resources for hydropower production and irrigated agriculture that, in combination with climate change, induced significant and spatially uneven alterations in the flow regime. Disentangling the effects of human activities from climate change is a difficult task, which only recently attracted the interest of scientists and stakeholders. In this study historical time series of hydro-climatic data (i.e. streamflow, precipitation and temperature) recorded since 1920 in the Adige river basin, located in the southeastern part of the Alps, were analysed in order to quantify alterations of the main hydrological fluxes due to climate change and water uses and separate their reciprocal contribution. Spatial and temporal patterns of change are identified by comparing the water budget performed in 4 representative sub-basins of the Adige river basin: Adige at Trento (9852 km2) and Bronzolo (6891 km2), Gadera at Mantana (394 km2) and Avisio at Soraga (207 km2). These sub-catchments are characterised by different climatic and water uses conditions. Disentangling the effects of water uses from climate change is difficult because none are known through measurements, such that the water balance equation contains two unknowns. We overcome this difficulty by calibrating a real evapotranspiration model in the period 1920-1950, when the effects of both climate change and water uses are deemed small to negligible. This model is then included into the water balance equation, to obtain water uses in the following period, under the usual hypothesis of no significant interannual accumulation. The effect of climate change is therefore included in the external drivers (precipitation and temperature) and manifests itself through changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, besides possible changes in runoff due to seasonal shifts in the precipitation. The northern part of the catchment (Adige at Bronzolo) does not show significant alterations of the hydrological balance, due to water uses, whereas a significant reducing trend of streamflow volumes is found in the middle course of the Adige (at Trento) since the '70s, which can be attributed to the intense development of irrigation agriculture in the drainage area of the Noce river, one of the main tributaries of the middle course of the Adige river. Conversely, Gadera at Mantana shows a significant positive trend in streamflow as a result of the complex interplay between shifts in the seasonal distribution of precipitation and rise of the temperature. This study shows that climate change is the main driver only in headwater basins, while water uses overcome its effect in the lower part of the catchment.

Impacts of an integrated crop-livestock system on soil properties to enhance precipitation capture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cropping/Livestock systems alter soil properties that are important in enhancing capture of precipitation by developing and maintaining water infiltration and storage. In this paper we will relate soil hydraulic conductivity and other physical properties on managed Old World Bluestem grassland, whea...

A USCLVAR Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies and Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks on Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2009-01-01

The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include, What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models. It is hoped that these early results will serve to stimulate further analysis of these simulations, as well as suggest new research on the physical mechanisms contributing to hydroclimatic variability and change throughout the world.

Energy-latitude dispersion patterns near the isotropy boundaries of energetic protons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergeev, V. A.; Chernyaeva, S. A.; Apatenkov, S. V.; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Dubyagin, S. V.

2015-08-01

Non-adiabatic motion of plasma sheet protons causes pitch-angle scattering and isotropic precipitation to the ionosphere, which forms the proton auroral oval. This mechanism related to current sheet scattering (CSS) provides a specific energy-latitude dispersion pattern near the equatorward boundary of proton isotropic precipitation (isotropy boundary, IB), with precipitation sharply decreasing at higher (lower) latitude for protons with lower (higher) energy. However, this boundary maps to the inner magnetosphere, where wave-induced scattering may provide different dispersion patterns as recently demonstrated by Liang et al. (2014). Motivated by the potential usage of the IBs for the magnetotail monitoring as well as by the need to better understand the mechanisms forming the proton IB, we investigate statistically the details of particle flux patterns near the proton IB using NOAA-POES polar spacecraft observations made during September 2009. By comparing precipitated-to-trapped flux ratio (J0/J90) at >30 and >80 keV proton energies, we found a relatively small number of simple CSS-type dispersion events (only 31 %). The clear reversed (wave-induced) dispersion patterns were very rare (5 %). The most frequent pattern had nearly coinciding IBs at two energies (63 %). The structured precipitation with multiple IBs was very frequent (60 %), that is, with two or more significant J0/J90 dropouts. The average latitudinal width of multiple IB structures was about 1°. Investigation of dozens of paired auroral zone crossings of POES satellites showed that the IB pattern is stable on a timescale of less than 2 min (a few proton bounce periods) but can evolve on a longer (several minutes) scale, suggesting temporal changes in some mesoscale structures in the equatorial magnetosphere. We discuss the possible role of CSS-related and wave-induced mechanisms and their possible coupling to interpret the emerging complicated patterns of proton isotropy boundaries.

Warming and elevated CO2 interact to alter seasonality and reduce variability of soil water in a semiarid grassland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global changes that alter the amount and timing of plant-available water may have profound effects on arid and semi-arid ecosystems. In addition to predicted changes in precipitation, both elevated CO2 and warming can alter water availability, often in opposite ways. Few studies, however, have measu...

Rooting depth varies differentially in trees and grasses as a function of mean annual rainfall in an African savanna.

PubMed

Holdo, Ricardo M; Nippert, Jesse B; Mack, Michelle C

2018-01-01

A significant fraction of the terrestrial biosphere comprises biomes containing tree-grass mixtures. Forecasting vegetation dynamics in these environments requires a thorough understanding of how trees and grasses use and compete for key belowground resources. There is disagreement about the extent to which tree-grass vertical root separation occurs in these ecosystems, how this overlap varies across large-scale environmental gradients, and what these rooting differences imply for water resource availability and tree-grass competition and coexistence. To assess the extent of tree-grass rooting overlap and how tree and grass rooting patterns vary across resource gradients, we examined landscape-level patterns of tree and grass functional rooting depth along a mean annual precipitation (MAP) gradient extending from ~ 450 to ~ 750 mm year -1 in Kruger National Park, South Africa. We used stable isotopes from soil and stem water to make inferences about relative differences in rooting depth between these two functional groups. We found clear differences in rooting depth between grasses and trees across the MAP gradient, with grasses generally exhibiting shallower rooting profiles than trees. We also found that trees tended to become more shallow-rooted as a function of MAP, to the point that trees and grasses largely overlapped in terms of rooting depth at the wettest sites. Our results reconcile previously conflicting evidence for rooting overlap in this system, and have important implications for understanding tree-grass dynamics under altered precipitation scenarios.

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Horton, Daniel E

2018-05-26

Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact-relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude-, frequency-, and severity-based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single-model multirealization ensembles. Under a high-emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency- and severity-based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude-based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity-based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude- and frequency-based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact-relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well-before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme-metric and domain-type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty-first century radiative forcing. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of monthly-seasonal precipitation using coupled SVD patterns between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2003-01-01

It was suggested in a recent statistical correlation analysis that predictability of monthly-seasonal precipitation could be improved by using coupled singular value decomposition (SVD) pattems between soil moisture and precipitation instead of their values at individual locations. This study provides predictive evidence for this suggestion by comparing skills of two...

Mapping ENSO: Precipitation for the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, E.; Price, J.; Kruk, M. C.; Luchetti, N.; Marra, J. J.

2015-12-01

The United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) are highly susceptible to extreme precipitation events such as drought and flooding, which directly affect their freshwater availability. Precipitation distribution differs by sub-region, and is predominantly influenced by phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Forecasters currently rely on ENSO climatologies from sparse in situ station data to inform their precipitation outlooks. This project provided an updated ENSO-based climatology of long-term precipitation patterns for each USAPI Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) using the NOAA PERSIANN Climate Data Record (CDR). This data provided a 30-year record (1984-2015) of daily precipitation at 0.25° resolution, which was used to calculate monthly, seasonal, and yearly precipitation. Results indicated that while the PERSIANN precipitation accurately described the monthly, seasonal, and annual trends, it under-predicted the precipitation on the islands. Additionally, maps showing percent departure from normal (30 year average) were made for each three month season based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for five ENSO phases (moderate-strong El Niño and La Niña, weak El Niño and La Niña, and neutral). Local weather service offices plan on using these results and maps to better understand how the different ENSO phases influence precipitation patterns.

Throughfall-mediated alterations to soil microbial community structure in a forest plot of homogenous soil texture, litter, and plant species composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Stan, John; Rosier, Carl; Moore, Leslie; Gay, Trent; Reichard, James; Wu, Tiehang; Kan, Jinjun

2015-04-01

Identifying spatiotemporal influences on soil microbial community (SMC) structure is critical to our understanding of patterns in biogeochemical cycling and related ecological services (e.g., plant community structure, water quality, response to environmental change). Since forest canopy structure alters the spatiotemporal patterning of precipitation water and solute supplies to soils (via "throughfall"), is it possible that changes in SMC structure could arise from modifications in canopy elements? Our study investigates this question by monitoring throughfall water and dissolved ion supply to soils beneath a continuum of canopy structure: from large gaps (0% cover), to bare Quercus virginiana Mill. (southern live oak) canopy (~50-70%), to heavy Tillandsia usneoides L. (Spanish moss) canopy (>90% cover). Throughfall water supply diminished with increasing canopy cover, yet increased washoff/leaching of Na+, Cl-, PO43-, and SO42- from the canopy to the soils. Presence of T. usneoides diminished throughfall NO3-, but enhanced NH4+, concentrations supplied to subcanopy soils. The mineral soil horizon (0-10 cm) sampled in triplicate from locations receiving throughfall water and solutes from canopy gaps, bare canopy, and T. usneoides-laden canopy significantly differed in soil chemistry parameters (pH, Ca2+, Mg2+, CEC). Polymerase Chain Reaction-Denaturant Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) banding patterns beneath similar canopy covers (experiencing similar throughfall dynamics) also produced high similarities per ANalyses Of SIMilarity (ANO-SIM), and clustered together when analyzed by Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS). These results suggest that modifications of forest canopy structures are capable of affecting mineral-soil horizon SMC structure via throughfall when canopies' biomass distribution is highly heterogeneous. As SMC structure, in many instances, relates to functional diversity, we suggest that future research seek to identify functional diversity shifts (e.g., nitrogen transformation) in response to canopy structural alterations of throughfall water/solute concentration

Quantifying Fast and Slow Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Exchange across a Water Availability Gradient in North American Flux Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Goulden, M.

2014-12-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and severity of water limitation, altering terrestrial ecosystems and their carbon exchange with the atmosphere. Here we compare site-level temporal sensitivity of annual carbon fluxes to interannual variations in water availability against cross-site spatial patterns over a network of 19 eddy covariance flux sites. This network represents one order of magnitude in mean annual productivity and includes western North American desert shrublands and grasslands, savannahs, woodlands, and forests with continuous records of 4 to 12 years. Our analysis reveals site-specific patterns not identifiable in prior syntheses that pooled sites. We interpret temporal variability as an indicator of ecosystem response to annual water availability due to fast-changing factors such as leaf stomatal response and microbial activity, while cross-site spatial patterns are used to infer ecosystem adjustment to climatic water availability through slow-changing factors such as plant community and organic carbon pools. Using variance decomposition, we directly quantify how terrestrial carbon balance depends on slow- and fast-changing components of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and total ecosystem respiration (TER). Slow factors explain the majority of variance in annual net ecosystem production (NEP) across the dataset, and their relative importance is greater at wetter, forest sites than desert ecosystems. Site-specific offsets from spatial patterns of GEP and TER explain one third of NEP variance, likely due to slow-changing factors not directly linked to water, such as disturbance. TER and GEP are correlated across sites as previously shown, but our site-level analysis reveals surprisingly consistent linear relationships between these fluxes in deserts and savannahs, indicating fast coupling of TER and GEP in more arid ecosystems. Based on the uncertainty associated with slow and fast factors, we suggest a framework for improved prediction of terrestrial carbon balance. We will also present results of ongoing work to quantify fast and slow contributions to the relationship between evapotranspiration and precipitation across a precipitation gradient.

Rain use efficiency across a precipitation gradient on the Tibetan Plateau

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rain use efficiency (RUE), commonly described as the ratio of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) to mean annual precipitation (MAP), is a critical indicator for predicting potential responses of grassland ecosystems to changing precipitation regimes. However, current understanding on patterns...

Spatial patterns of soil moisture connected to monthly-seasonal precipitation variability in a monsoon region

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2003-01-01

The relations between monthly-seasonal soil moisture and precipitation variability are investigated by identifying the coupled patterns of the two hydrological fields using singular value decomposition (SVD). SVD is a technique of principal component analysis similar to empirical orthogonal knctions (EOF). However, it is applied to two variables simultaneously and is...

Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming on drought in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2012-12-01

Droughts are among the most expensive weather related disasters in the US. In the semi-arid regions of the US Southwest, where average annual rainfall is already very low, multiyear droughts can have large economic, societal and ecological impacts. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which undergo considerable interannual variability associated with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. These impacts have not been combined and compared with projections of long-term variations due to natural climate patterns. This study addresses this need by deriving future projections of rainfall departures for Arizona and New Mexico with the PDO and AMO and combining these with projected global warming impacts. Depending on the precipitation dataset used, the impacts for the ongoing negative PDO phase are projected to be between 1-1.6 times as large as the multi-model means projection of precipitation minus evaporation during 2020-2040 in the IPCC A1B Scenario. The projected precipitation impacts of a combined negative PDO and positive AMO phase are between 1-2 times as large as the A1B Scenario projection. The study also advances earlier work by addressing problems in detecting the effect of the PDO on precipitation. Given the different mechanisms with which the PDO affects precipitation during winter and the NAM season, precipitation impacts are here investigated on a monthly scale. The impacts of the PDO also vary with other climate patterns. This can be partly addressed by investigating precipitation departures in dependence on other patterns. It is further found that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures.

Few multi-year precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship

DOE PAGES

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Penuelas, Josep; ...

2016-04-06

Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effectsmore » of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. Seventy two percent of expiriments showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid.« less

Few multi-year precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Penuelas, Josep

Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effectsmore » of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. Seventy two percent of expiriments showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid.« less

Holocene Evolution of Precipitation Patterns in the Southwestern US, Mexico, Central America, and Caribbean: Comparison with Tropical SST Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, J. A.; Metcalfe, S. E.; Davies, S. J.

2014-12-01

We evaluate proxy reconstructions of Holocene records precipitation in the North American Monsoon region (SW US and northern Mexico) and regions to the south (southern Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Seventy-seven precipitation records are tabulated at 2-3 kyr increments for the past 12 kyr, with results displayed mainly on maps. Sites currently dominated by summer precipitation, coupled with proxy records that distinguish summer vs. winter vegetation are used to estimate summer precipitation. Resulting patterns of precipitation variability are evaluated against SST reconstructions from surrounding tropical seas -eastern tropical Pacific, Gulf of California (GoC), Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico (GoM), which are source areas for summer precipitation. During the Younger Dryas, ca. 12 ka, widespread drying in southern regions contrasted with evidence for wetter conditions in multiple records from the SW US. By 9 ka wetter conditions had spread to the southern regions, likely reflecting an increased Caribbean low-level jet associated with an enhanced Bermuda High. Pacific westerlies contributed significant winter precipitation to the southwestern US and northernmost Mexico at 9 ka. The modern geographical pattern of summer precipitation was established by 6 ka, as the Bermuda High moved northward following the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. SSTs in the GoC and GoM increased, and the NAM strengthened. Increased regional precipitation differences are apparent by 4 ka, likely reflecting enhanced ENSO variability. Most of the southern region experienced increased precipitation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), whereas winter drought dominated in the north. In contrast, much of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was characterized by generally drier conditions in Central America and Mexico, with wetter conditions in the SW US. Results are broadly supportive of enhanced La Niña-like conditions during the MCA vs. increased ENSO variability during the LIA.

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

From the stand-scale to the landscape-scale: predicting the spatial patterns of forest regeneration after disturbance.

PubMed

Shive, Kristen L; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Welch, Kevin R; Safford, Hugh D; Butz, Ramona J; O'Hara, Kevin L; Stephens, Scott L

2018-05-29

Shifting disturbance regimes can have cascading effects on many ecosystems processes. This is particularly true when the scale of the disturbance no longer matches the regeneration strategy of the dominant vegetation. In the yellow pine and mixed conifer forests of California, over a century of fire exclusion and the warming climate are increasing the incidence and extent of stand-replacing wildfire; such changes in severity patterns are altering regeneration dynamics by dramatically increasing the distance from live tree seed sources. This has raised concerns about limitations to natural reforestation and the potential for conversion to non-forested vegetation types, which in turn has implications for shifts in many ecological processes and ecosystem services. We used a California region-wide dataset with 1,848 plots across 24 wildfires in yellow pine and mixed conifer forests to build a spatially-explicit habitat suitability model for forecasting postfire forest regeneration. To model the effect of seed availability, the critical initial biological filter for regeneration, we used a novel approach to predicting spatial patterns of seed availability by estimating annual seed production from existing basal area and burn severity maps. The probability of observing any conifer seedling in a 60m 2 area (the field plot scale) was highly dependent on 30-year average annual precipitation, burn severity and seed availability. We then used this model to predict regeneration probabilities across the entire extent of a "new' fire (the 2014 King Fire), which highlights the spatial variability inherent in postfire regeneration patterns. Such accurate forecasts of postfire regeneration patterns are of importance to land managers and conservationists interested in maintaining forest cover on the landscape. Our tool can also help anticipate shifts in ecosystem properties, supporting researchers interested in investigating questions surrounding alternative stable states, and the interaction of altered disturbance regimes and the changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Predicting effects of climate change on the composition and function of soil microbial communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubinsky, E.; Brodie, E.; Myint, C.; Ackerly, D.; van Nostrand, J.; Bird, J.; Zhou, J.; Andersen, G.; Firestone, M.

2008-12-01

Complex soil microbial communities regulate critical ecosystem processes that will be altered by climate change. A critical step towards predicting the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems is to determine the primary controllers of soil microbial community composition and function, and subsequently evaluate climate change scenarios that alter these controllers. We surveyed complex soil bacterial and archaeal communities across a range of climatic and edaphic conditions to identify critical controllers of soil microbial community composition in the field and then tested the resulting predictions using a 2-year manipulation of precipitation and temperature using mesocosms of California annual grasslands. Community DNA extracted from field soils sampled from six different ecosystems was assayed for bacterial and archaeal communities using high-density phylogenetic microarrays as well as functional gene arrays. Correlations among the relative abundances of thousands of microbial taxa and edaphic factors such as soil moisture and nutrient content provided a basis for predicting community responses to changing soil conditions. Communities of soil bacteria and archaea were strongly structured by single environmental predictors, particularly variables related to soil water. Bacteria in the Actinomycetales and Bacilli consistently demonstrated a strong negative response to increasing soil moisture, while taxa in a greater variety of lineages responded positively to increasing soil moisture. In the climate change experiment, overall bacterial community structure was impacted significantly by total precipitation but not by plant species. Changes in soil moisture due to decreased rainfall resulted in significant and predictable alterations in community structure. Over 70% of the bacterial taxa in common with the cross-ecosystem study responded as predicted to altered precipitation, with the most conserved response from Actinobacteria. The functional consequences of these predictable changes in community composition were measured with functional arrays that detect genes involved in the metabolism of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. The response of soil microbial communities to altered precipitation can be predicted from the distribution of microbial taxa across moisture gradients.

The fate of silicon during glass corrosion under alkaline conditions: A mechanistic and kinetic study with the International Simple Glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gin, Stéphane; Jollivet, Patrick; Fournier, Maxime; Berthon, Claude; Wang, Zhaoying; Mitroshkov, Alexandre; Zhu, Zihua; Ryan, Joseph V.

2015-02-01

International Simple Glass - a six oxide borosilicate glass selected by the international nuclear glass community to improve the understanding of glass corrosion mechanisms and kinetics - was altered at 90 °C in a solution initially saturated with respect to amorphous 29SiO2. The pH90°C, was fixed at 9 at the start of the experiment and raised to 11.5 after 209 d by the addition of KOH. Isotope sensitive analytical techniques were used to analyze the solution and altered glass samples, helping to understand the driving forces and rate limiting processes controlling long-term glass alteration. At pH 9, the corrosion rate continuously drops and the glass slowly transforms into a uniform, homogeneous amorphous alteration layer. The mechanisms responsible for this transformation are water penetration through the growing alteration layer and ion exchange. We demonstrate that this amorphous alteration layer is not a precipitate resulting from the hydrolysis of the silicate network; it is mostly inherited from the glass structure from which the most weakly bonded cations (Na, Ca and B) have been released. At pH 11.5, the alteration process is very different: the high solubility of glass network formers (Si, Al, Zr) triggers the rapid and complete dissolution of the glass (dissolution becomes congruent) and precipitation of amorphous and crystalline phases. Unlike at pH 9 where glass corrosion rate decreased by 3 orders of magnitude likely due to the retroaction of the alteration layer on water dynamics/reactivity at the reaction front, the rate at pH 11.5 is maintained at a value close to the forward rate due to both the hydrolysis of the silicate network promoted by OH- and the precipitation of CSH and zeolites. This study provides key information for a unified model for glass dissolution.

Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda

2018-05-01

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C.

Long Term Ground Based Precipitation Data Analysis in California's 7 Climate Divisions: Spatial and Temporal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, L.; El-Askary, H. M.; Rakovski, C.; Allai, M.

2015-12-01

California is an area of diverse topography and has what many scientists call a Mediterranean climate. Various precipitation patterns exist due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which can cause abnormal precipitation or droughts. As temperature increases mainly due to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, it is rapidly changing the climate of not only California but the world. An increase in temperature is leading to droughts in certain areas as other areas are experiencing heavy rainfall/flooding. Droughts in return are providing a foundation for fires harming the ecosystem and nearby population. Various natural hazards can be induced due to the coupling effects from inconsistent precipitation patterns and vice versa. Using wavelets and ARIMA modeling, we were able to identify anomalies of high precipitation and droughts within California's 7 climate divisions using NOAA's hourly precipitation data from rain gauges and compared the results with modeled data, SOI, PDO, and AMO. The identification of anomalies can be used to compare and correct remote sensing measurements of precipitation and droughts.

A HIERARCHIAL STOCHASTIC MODEL OF LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND MULTIPLE STATION DAILY PRECIPITATION

EPA Science Inventory

A stochastic model of weather states and concurrent daily precipitation at multiple precipitation stations is described. our algorithms are invested for classification of daily weather states; k means, fuzzy clustering, principal components, and principal components coupled with ...

Spatiotemporal variability of summer precipitation in southeastern Arizona

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in Southeastern Arizona covers ~150 km2 and receives the majority of its annual precipitation from highly variable and intermittent summer storms during the North American Monsoon. In this study the patterns of precipitation in the United States Departm...

The response of the East Asia summer precipitation to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Fangxing; Dong, Buwen; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

2017-04-01

The changes of precipitation over China since the mid-20th century display a dipole trend pattern over eastern China, which is known as Southern-Flood-Northern-Drought (SFND) pattern. The trends have been attributed to different factors, such as the changes of aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions. However much less is known about the different effects of these factors on generating the SFND pattern. This work investigated the drivers and dynamical mechanisms by using a atmosphere-ocean-mixed-layer model forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gase (GHG), anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and the combined effects. The model experiments with different forcings indicates that the GHG forcing dominates the precipitation increase, which is stronger over south China than over north China. On the other hand, the drought over north China is dominated by the AA forcing. Analysis of physical processes indicates that the GHG forcing increases the moisture and leads to strong convergence over east China, and then more precipitation. The AA forcing leads to north wind anomalies and generates divergent anomalies over north China, which reduces the precipitation. Further analysis indicates that the changes of the circulation which related to the SFND pattern are forced by the enhancement of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH). Both GHG and AA forcing can enhance the WNPSH by changing the local Hadley cell.

Hydrodynamic fingering instability induced by a precipitation reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Wit, Anne; Nagatsu, Yuichiro

2014-05-01

We experimentally demonstrate that a precipitation reaction at the miscible interface between two reactive solutions can trigger a hydrodynamic instability due to the build-up of a locally adverse mobility gradient related to a decrease in permeability. The precipitate results from an A+B → C type of reaction when a solution containing one of the reactant is injected into a solution of the other reactant in a porous medium or a Hele-Shaw cell. Finger-like precipitation patterns are observed upon displacement, the properties of which depend on whether A displaces B or vice-versa. A mathematical modeling of the underlying mobility profile in the cell reconstructed on the basis of one-dimensional reaction-diffusion concentration profiles confirms that the instability originates from a local decrease in mobility driven by the precipitation. Nonlinear simulations of the related reaction-diffusion-convection model reproduce the properties of the instability observed experimentally. In particular, the simulations suggest that differences in diffusivity between A and B may contribute to the asymmetric characteristics of the fingering precipitation patterns.

Resumption of nuclear glass alteration: State of the art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fournier, Maxime; Gin, Stéphane; Frugier, Pierre

2014-05-01

Studies of nuclear glass alteration kinetics have shown that after the beginning of a rate drop due to the approach of silica saturation of the solution and the formation of a passivating layer, a resumption of alteration is possible. This phenomenon corresponding to an acceleration of the glass dissolution rate is systematically associated with the precipitation of zeolites and, to a lesser extent, calcium silicate hydrates. Secondary phases which precipitate from the major glass network-forming elements (Si, Al) strongly impact the dissolution kinetics. The literature data are generally consistent and the results are reproducible, showing that the resumption of alteration is observed at high pH, temperature, and S/V ratio during laboratory experiments. The studies also show that the resumption of alteration is strongly dependent on the composition of the glass and the leaching solutions. The wide range of glass compositions studied (about 60 glasses in the articles reviewed) and the variable test conditions (temperature, pH, and solution composition) make it extremely difficult to compare and compile the data, or to decorrelate the effects of the composition on the time before the resumption of alteration and on its magnitude. The observations to date have led to a proposed macroscopic mechanism based on the loss of the passivating properties of the alteration layer after consumption of a fraction of the network-forming elements by precipitation of zeolites. No multiscale mechanistic approach exists, however, to account for the nucleation and growth of zeolites at the expense of the glass. For example, the effect of aluminum in the gel or in solution on the glass alteration kinetics is not sufficiently understood today. Although thermodynamic models have been proposed to delimit the ranges of glass compositions subject to a resumption of alteration, their development is hampered by inadequate knowledge of the newly formed phases and their nucleation-growth mechanism, and by gaps in the thermodynamic databases. Their development is also constrained by the capability of the models to take Si-Al-Ca interactions into account in the alteration gels.

Assessment of WRF Simulated Precipitation by Meteorological Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagenhoff, Brooke Anne

This study evaluated warm-season precipitation events in a multi-year (2007-2014) database of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over the Northern Plains and Southern Great Plains. These WRF simulations were run daily in support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) for operational forecasts. Evaluating model skill by synoptic pattern allows for an understanding of how model performance varies with particular atmospheric states and will aid forecasters with pattern recognition. To conduct this analysis, a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) was used. SOMs allow the user to represent atmospheric patterns in an array of nodes that represent a continuum of synoptic categorizations. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data during the warm season (April-September) was used to perform the synoptic typing over the study domains. Simulated precipitation was evaluated against observations provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analysis.

Exploring the effects of climatic variables on monthly precipitation variation using a continuous wavelet-based multiscale entropy approach.

PubMed

Roushangar, Kiyoumars; Alizadeh, Farhad; Adamowski, Jan

2018-08-01

Understanding precipitation on a regional basis is an important component of water resources planning and management. The present study outlines a methodology based on continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and multiscale entropy (CWME), combined with self-organizing map (SOM) and k-means clustering techniques, to measure and analyze the complexity of precipitation. Historical monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 at 31 rain gauges across Iran were preprocessed by CWT. The multi-resolution CWT approach segregated the major features of the original precipitation series by unfolding the structure of the time series which was often ambiguous. The entropy concept was then applied to components obtained from CWT to measure dispersion, uncertainty, disorder, and diversification of subcomponents. Based on different validity indices, k-means clustering captured homogenous areas more accurately, and additional analysis was performed based on the outcome of this approach. The 31 rain gauges in this study were clustered into 6 groups, each one having a unique CWME pattern across different time scales. The results of clustering showed that hydrologic similarity (multiscale variation of precipitation) was not based on geographic contiguity. According to the pattern of entropy across the scales, each cluster was assigned an entropy signature that provided an estimation of the entropy pattern of precipitation data in each cluster. Based on the pattern of mean CWME for each cluster, a characteristic signature was assigned, which provided an estimation of the CWME of a cluster across scales of 1-2, 3-8, and 9-13 months relative to other stations. The validity of the homogeneous clusters demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed approach to regionalize precipitation. Further analysis based on wavelet coherence (WTC) was performed by selecting central rain gauges in each cluster and analyzing against temperature, wind, Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), and East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indeces. The results revealed that all climatic features except NAO influenced precipitation in Iran during the 1960-2010 period. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

Treesearch

Charlene N. Kelly; Kevin J. McGuire; Chelcy Ford Miniat; James M. Vose

2016-01-01

Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the...

Geochemical and lithological factors in acid precipitation

Treesearch

James R. Kramer

1976-01-01

Acid precipitation is altered by interaction with rocks, sediment and soil. A calcareous region buffers even the most intense loading at pH ~8; an alumino silicate region with unconsolidated sediment buffers acid loadings at pH ~6.5; alumino silicate outcrops are generally acidified. Either FeOOH or alumino silicates are probable H+...

Relationships between precipitation and floods in the fluvial basins of Central Spain based on documentary sources from the end of the 16th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullón, T.

2011-08-01

This study presents the results of a historic reconstruction based upon documentary sources of precipitation and floods during the last fifty years of the 16th century in Central Spain. We used data from primary sources contemporary to the events rather than compilations or secondary references. These documents belong to the institutions that administered the study area during the time period of interest and consist of municipal or monastic minute books and administrative texts from properties belonging to the nobility and royal family. Direct data that explicitly describe meteorological or flood-related events are haphazardly distributed throughout personal correspondence and various reports, and the sizes of floods or precipitation events can also be deduced from indirect data. We analysed the qualitative data by transforming them into numerical indices of intensity/duration for precipitation and intensity/area for floods. We differentiated three sets of years that presented different hydrological patterns. The first period, from 1554 to 1575, exhibited regular precipitation patterns associated with low-intensity floods. The second, from 1576 to 1584, was characterised by low precipitation levels and few floods. The third, from 1585 to 1599, showed intense precipitation with large floods interspersed with long-lasting droughts. We interpret these results in the context of the environmental and land-use patterns of the time period studied, which coincided with a period of low temperatures.

Modeling distributional changes in winter precipitation of Canada using Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression subjected to different teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Chen, Shu; Liu, Bingjun

2018-05-01

Climate change and large-scale climate patterns may result in changes in probability distributions of climate variables that are associated with changes in the mean and variability, and severity of extreme climate events. In this paper, we applied a flexible framework based on the Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile (BSTQR) model to identify climate changes at different quantile levels and their teleconnections to large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA). Using the BSTQR model with time (year) as a covariate, we estimated changes in Canadian winter precipitation and their uncertainties at different quantile levels. There were some stations in eastern Canada showing distributional changes in winter precipitation such as an increase in low quantiles but a decrease in high quantiles. Because quantile functions in the BSTQR model vary with space and time and assimilate spatiotemporal precipitation data, the BSTQR model produced much spatially smoother and less uncertain quantile changes than the classic regression without considering spatiotemporal correlations. Using the BSTQR model with five teleconnection indices (i.e., SOI, PDO, PNA, NP and NAO) as covariates, we investigated effects of large-scale climate patterns on Canadian winter precipitation at different quantile levels. Winter precipitation responses to these five teleconnections were found to occur differently at different quantile levels. Effects of five teleconnections on Canadian winter precipitation were stronger at low and high than at medium quantile levels.

Influence of SST from Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric circulation in the precipitation regime of basin from Brazilian SIN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Custodio, M. D.; Ramos, C. G.; Madeira, P.; de Macedo, A. L.

2013-12-01

The South American climate presents tropical, subtropical and extratropical features because of its territorial extension, being influenced by a variety of dynamical systems with different spatial and temporal scales which result in different climatic regimes in their subregions. Furthermore, the precipitation regime in South America is influenced by low-frequency phenomena as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic dipole and the Madden Julian Oscilation (MJO), in other words, is directly influenced by variations of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Due to the importance of the precipitation for many sectors including the planning of productive activities, such as agriculture, livestock and hydropower energy, many studies about climate variations in Brazil have tried to determine and explain the mechanisms that affect the precipitation regime. However, because of complexity of the climate system, and consequently of their impacts on the global precipitation regime, its interactions are not totally understood and therefore misrepresented in numerical models used to forecast climate. The precipitation pattern over hydrographic basin which form the Brasilian National Interconnected System (Sistema Interligado Nacional-SIN) are not yet known and therefore the climate forecast of these regions still presents considerable failure that need to be corrected due to its economic importance. In this context, the purpose here is to determine the precipitation patterns on the Brazilian SIN, based on SST and circulation observed data. In a second phase a forecast climate model for these regions will be produced. In this first moment 30 years (1983 to 2012) of SST over Pacific and Atlantic Ocean were analyzed, along with wind in 850 and 200 hPa and precipitation observed data. The precipitation patterns were analyzed through statistical analyses for interannual (ENSO) and intraseasonal (MJO) anomalies for these variables over the SIN basin. Subsequently, these precipitation patterns will be used for the development of a statistical model for climate prediction for each of these regions, with which it is expected an improvement of up to 20% of climate prediction in these basins. In this first stage was evident a high correlation between precipitation in the basins of SIN and SST Pacific anomalies over the region of Niños, as well as on the coast of Chile and Peru. The effect of SST anomalies in the Niños region on precipitation in the South America is already known, however its quantification was not yet well understood. The coast of Chile determines the positioning and movement of cold fronts directly affecting rainfall in southern and southeastern of Brazil, then the correlation and rain pattern indicate the parameters for the climate prediction model. The anomalies over the Atlantic ocean present high correlation with the precipitation in North and Northeast of Brazil, as well as its connection with the Pacific anomalies. This quantification generated climatic parameters for predictions for these regions. The relationship between the canonical ENSO events and precipitation regime on the basins were also quantified which represents a high degree of assertiveness in predicting climate of these regions.

Analysis of diurnal and seasonal climate patterns in the Rwenzori Mountains, East Africa, using satellite data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavagnaro, D. B.; Doughty, A. M.; Hatchett, B.

2016-12-01

The Rwenzori Mountains of Uganda and Democratic Republic of the Congo are one of only three remaining glaciated sites in Africa. Because of their remoteness and sparsity of meteorological data, the climate patterns are not well-known or well understood, which may lead to high uncertainty in glacier mass-balance estimates and paleoclimate reconstructions. This project uses remotely-sensed precipitation data, automatic weather station data, and back-trajectory modeling of air parcels to characterize the diurnal and seasonal climate patterns at the Rwenzori. Of the two wet seasons, we estimate that the short-rains (SON) provide up to 500% more snow accumulation. Precipitation is highly diurnal and driven by convection to the east of the Rwenzori as well as local up-valley convection (Mölg et al., 2003). Back-trajectory modeling shows that precipitation tends to occur at the Rwenzori when airstreams are able to pick up moisture during peak daytime convection on the East African Plateau the day before arriving at the Rwenzori. This relationship is supported by the fact that precipitation rates at the western end of the plateau follow a stronger diurnal cycle than precipitation rates at the eastern end, at Mount Kenya.

Migration history of air-breathing fishes reveals Neogene atmospheric circulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böhme, M.

2004-05-01

The migration history of an air-breathing fish group (Channidae; snakehead fishes) is used for reconstructing Neogene Eurasian precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns. The study shows that snakeheads are sensitive indicators of summer precipitation maxima in subtropical and temperate regions, and are present regularly if the wettest month exceeds 150 mm precipitation and 20 °C mean temperature. The analysis of 515 fossil freshwater fish deposits of the past 50 m.y. from Africa and Eurasia shows two continental-scale migration events from the snakeheads' center of origin in the south Himalayan region, events that can be related to changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation pattern. The first migration, ca. 17.5 Ma, into western and central Eurasia may have been caused by a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone that brought western Eurasia under the influence of trade winds that produced a zonal and meridional precipitation gradient in Europe. During the second migration, between 8 and 4 Ma, into Africa and East Asia, snakeheads reached their present-day distribution. This migration could have been related to the intensification of the Asian monsoon that brought summer precipitation to their migratory pathways in East Africa Arabia and East Asia.

Effect of precipitation pattern on leaching of preservative from treated wood and implications for accelerated testing

Treesearch

Stan Lebow

2014-01-01

There is a need to develop improved accelerated test methods for evaluating the leaching of wood preservatives from treated wood exposed to precipitation. In this study the effects of rate of rainfall and length of intervals between rainfall events on leaching was evaluated by exposing specimens to varying patterns of simulated rainfall under controlled laboratory...

Response of Spartina Alterniflora to Sea Level Rise, Changing Precipitation Patterns, and Eutrophication

EPA Science Inventory

Sea level rise, precipitation, and eutrophication (3 X 3 X 2 factorial design) were simulated in tidal mesocosms in the US EPA Narragansett greenhouse. Each precipitation treatment (storm, drought, ambient rain) was represented in one of two tanks (control, fertilized). The contr...

Atacamite and paratacamite from the ultramafic-hosted Logatchev seafloor vent field (14°45′N, Mid-Atlantic Ridge)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dekov, Vesselin; Boycheva, Tanya; Halenius, Ulf; Petersen, Sven; Billstrom, Kjell; Stummeyer, Jens; Kamenov, G.; Shanks, W.

2011-01-01

Atacamite and paratacamite are ubiquitous minerals associated with Cu-rich massive sulfides at the Logatchev hydrothermal field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge). In this work we provide new details on the mineralogy and geochemistry of these basic cupric chlorides. Our data support the notion that atacamite and paratacamite formation at submarine vent fields is an alteration process of hydrothermal Cu-sulfides. Secondary Cu-sulfides (bornite, covellite) are unstable at ambient seawater conditions and will dissolve. Dissolution is focused at the sulfide–seawater contact, leading to release of Fe2+ and Cu+ and formation of residual chalcocite through an intermediate Cu5S4 phase. Most of the released Fe2+ oxidizes immediately and precipitates as FeOOH directly on the chalcocite rims whereas Cu as chloride complexes (CuCl2−, CuCl32-) remains in solution at the same Eh. Cuprous–chloride complexes migrate from the reaction zone and upon increasing Eh precipitate as Cu2Cl(OH)3. As a consequence of this, the sulfide–seawater reaction interface is clearly marked by thin chalcocite–FeOOH bands and the entire assemblage is mantled by atacamite (or paratacamite). Our mineralogical, petrographic, geochemical and isotopic studies suggest that there are two types of atacamite (and/or paratacamite) depending on their mode of precipitation. Type 1 atacamite precipitated directly on the parent sulfides as evidenced by mantling of the sulfides, absence of detrital mineral grains, a preserved conspicuous positive Eu anomaly and a negligible negative Ce anomaly similar to those of the parent sulfide. In addition, Au concentrations are slightly lower than those of the parent sulfides, which suggest minimal transport of Au-ions after their release from the sulfides. Furthermore, the low content of the rare earth elements implies short contact time with the ambient seawater. The Sr–Nd–Pb-isotopic signatures of type 1 atacamite confirm the genetic association with the parent sulfides and indicate formation spatially very close to the latter. Type 2 atacamite precipitated at some distance from the parent sulfides, which means that the cuprous–chloride complexes have moved away from the sulfide alteration zone before precipitation. The evidence for this is absence of direct association of atacamite with sulfides. In addition, this atacamite contains a substantial proportion of detrital minerals, which implies precipitation in the sediments, distal to the parent sulfides. As a consequence of the detrital impurities the contents of elements like Cr, Cs, Hf, Nb, Rb, Th and Zr are higher than in type 1 atacamite (and/or paratacamite). Au contents are lower than those of type 1 atacamite (and/or paratacamite) which implies prolonged Au transport in solution before precipitation. Furthermore, the rare earth element distribution patterns have no positive Eu anomaly suggesting that the positive Eu anomaly of the parent sulfide has been erased after dissolution and prolonged contact of the fluid with ambient seawater (with negative Eu anomaly). Finally, the Sr–Nd-isotope signature differs from that of the parent sulfide and indicates a considerable terrigenous input.

Changes in southern Piedmont grassland community structure and nutritive quality with future climate scenarios of elevated tropospheric ozone and altered rainfall patterns.

PubMed

Gilliland, N J; Chappelka, A H; Muntifering, R B; Ditchkoff, S S

2016-01-01

Forage species common to the southern USA Piedmont region, Lolium arundinacea, Paspalum dilatatum, Cynodon dactylon and Trifolium repens, were established in a model pasture system to test the future climate change scenario of increasing ozone exposure in combination with varying rainfall amounts on community structure and nutritive quality. Forages were exposed to two levels of ozone [ambient (non-filtered; NF) and twice ambient (2×) concentrations] with three levels of precipitation (average or ±20% of average) in modified open-top chambers (OTCs) from June to September 2009. Dry matter (DM) yield did not differ over the growing season between forage types, except in primary growth grasses where DM yield was higher in 2× than NF treatment. Primary growth clover decreased in nutritive quality in 2× ozone because of increased concentrations of neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF) and acid detergent lignin (ADL). Re-growth clover exhibited the largest decrease in nutritive quality, whereas grasses were not adversely affected in 2× ozone. Re-growth grasses responded positively to 2× ozone exposure, as indicated in increased relative food value (RFV) and percentage crude protein (CP) than NF-exposed re-growth grasses. Effects of precipitation were not significant over the growing season for primary or re-growth forage, except in primary growth grasses where DM yield was higher in chambers with above average (+20%) precipitation. Total canopy cover was significantly higher over the growing season in chambers receiving above average precipitation, but no significant effects were observed with ozone. Results indicate shifts in plant community structure and functioning related to mammalian herbivore herbivory in future climate change scenarios. © 2015 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

From facilitation to competition: temperature-driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands.

PubMed

Olsen, Siri L; Töpper, Joachim P; Skarpaas, Olav; Vandvik, Vigdis; Klanderud, Kari

2016-05-01

Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate-related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co-occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population-level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drought and cooler temperatures are associated with higher nest survival in Mountain Plovers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreitz, V.J.; Conrey, R.Y.; Skagen, S.K.

2012-01-01

Native grasslands have been altered to a greater extent than any other biome in North America. The habitats and resources needed to support breeding performance of grassland birds endemic to prairie ecosystems are currently threatened by land management practices and impending climate change. Climate models for the Great Plains prairie region predict a future of hotter and drier summers with strong multiyear droughts and more frequent and severe precipitation events. We examined how fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado influenced nest survival of an avian species that has experienced recent population declines, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus). Nest survival averaged 27.2% over a 7-yr period (n = 936 nests) and declined as the breeding season progressed. Nest survival was favored by dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Projected changes in regional precipitation patterns will likely influence nest survival, with positive influences of predicted declines in summer rainfall yet negative effects of more intense rain events. The interplay of climate change and land use practices within prairie ecosystems may result in Mountain Plovers shifting their distribution, changing local abundance, and adjusting fecundity to adapt to their changing environment.

Controls on ground-water chemistry in the Horse Heaven Hills, south-central Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steinkampf, W.C.; Bortleson, Gilbert C.; Packard, F.A.

1985-01-01

Miocene basaltic aquifers are the source of domestic and municipal water, and about 20,000 acre-feet of irrigation water annually, in the Horse Heaven Hills in south-central Washington State. Groundwater chemical variations derive from the hydraulic characteristics is of the geohydrologic system, from groundwater basalt reactions, and from irrigation. Some dissolved species concentrations increase with residence time; others decrease. Recharge area groundwaters are calcium magnesium sodium bicarbonate waters with sodium-adsorption ratios (SAR's) less than 1.0. They evolve to sodium potassium bicarbonate waters with SAR 's as high as 17. Glassy and cryptocrystalline phases of the basalt are the main sources of dissolved sodium. They dissolve by silicate hydrolysis in carbon dioxide charged waters that recharge the aquifer system. Dissolved silicon, iron, and aluminum concentrations are controlled by the solubilities of amorphous secondary alteration products, which order to silica phases, oxyhydroxides, and smectite. Carbonate mineral precipitation is induced by increasing pH from the hydrolysis reaction. Sodium and potassium concentrations increase until clinoptilolite saturation is reached and precipitation begins. Deviations from the general variation patterns are due to localized geologic structures which distort the groundwater flow system, and to the irrigation use of Columbia River water. (USGS)

Climate Degradation and Extreme Icing Events Constrain Life in Cold-Adapted Mammals.

PubMed

Berger, J; Hartway, C; Gruzdev, A; Johnson, M

2018-01-18

Despite the growth in knowledge about the effects of a warming Arctic on its cold-adapted species, the mechanisms by which these changes affect animal populations remain poorly understood. Increasing temperatures, declining sea ice and altered wind and precipitation patterns all may affect the fitness and abundance of species through multiple direct and indirect pathways. Here we demonstrate previously unknown effects of rain-on-snow (ROS) events, winter precipitation, and ice tidal surges on the Arctic's largest land mammal. Using novel field data across seven years and three Alaskan and Russian sites, we show arrested skeletal growth in juvenile muskoxen resulting from unusually dry winter conditions and gestational ROS events, with the inhibitory effects on growth from ROS events lasting up to three years post-partum. Further, we describe the simultaneous entombment of 52 muskoxen in ice during a Chukchi Sea winter tsunami (ivuniq in Iñupiat), and link rapid freezing to entrapment of Arctic whales and otters. Our results illustrate how once unusual, but increasingly frequent Arctic weather events affect some cold-adapted mammals, and suggest that an understanding of species responses to a changing Arctic can be enhanced by coalescing groundwork, rare events, and insights from local people.

Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scavia, Donald; Field, John C.; Boesch, Donald F.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Burkett, Virginia; Cayan, Daniel R.; Fogarty, Michael; Harwell, Mark A.; Howarth, Robert W.; Mason, Curt; Reed, Denise J.; Royer, Thomas C.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Titus, James G.

2002-01-01

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.

Do competitors modulate rare plant response to precipitation change?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levine, J.M.; Kathryn, Mceachern A.; Cowan, C.

2010-01-01

Ecologists increasingly suspect that climate change will directly impact species physiology, demography, and phenology, but also indirectly affect these measures via changes to the surrounding community. Unfortunately, few studies examine both the direct and indirect pathways of impact. Doing so is important because altered competitive pressures can reduce or magnify the direct responses of a focal species to climate change. Here, we examine the effects of changing rainfall on three rare annual plant species in the presence and absence of competition on the California Channel Islands. We used rain-out shelters and hand watering to exclude and augment early, late, and season-long rainfall, spanning the wide range of precipitation change forecast for the region. In the absence of competition, droughts reduced the population growth rates of two of three focal annuals, while increased rainfall was only sometimes beneficial, As compared to the focal species, the dominant competitors were more sensitive to the precipitation treatments, benefiting from increased season-long precipitation and harmed by droughts. Importantly, the response of two of three competitors to the precipitation treatments tended to be positively correlated with those of the focal annuals. Although this leads to the expectation that increased competition will counter the direct benefits of favorable conditions, such indirect effects of precipitation change proved weak to nonexistent in our experiment. Competitors had little influence on the precipitation response of two focal species, due to their low sensitivity to competition and highly variable precipitation responses. Competition did affect how our third focal species responded to precipitation change, but this effect only approached significance, and whether it truly resulted from competitor response to precipitation change was unclear. Our work suggests that even when competitors respond to climate change, these responses may have little effect on the focal species. Ultimately, the strength of the indirect effect depends on how strongly climate change alters competition, and how sensitive focal species are to changes in competition. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Investigating the potential impacts of local climate change on the meltwater supply of a small snow-fed mountain river system: A case study of the Animas River, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, C. A.

2010-12-01

The western US receives up to 80% of its annual streamflow from snowmelt fed river systems during the mid-to-late spring season. Changes in winter and spring air temperature and precipitation patterns have, however, begun to alter this sensitive hydroclimatological process, both in terms of the timing and magnitude of snowmelt events and the responding streamflow. Monitoring and planning for these changes in the future may well prove crucial for local water resource planners who traditionally rely on historical trends or means for water resource planning. Local-level water resource planners also often do not have the data or tools at the right resolution available to them for the same planning purposes. This goal of this research was to identify how changes in the local winter-spring climate may alter the hydrological response of a typical small mountain snowmelt fed river system, the Animas River in SW Colorado. To achieve this, a statistical downscaling technique was applied to increase the resolution of, and build a linear relationship between, historical upper atmospheric reanalysis data to surface level mean air temperature and precipitation for several climate stations located across the basin for 1950-2007. The same technique was then used to increase the resolution of two GCM scenarios from the NCAR CCSM3 model SRES-AR4 data runs (a 'business as usual’ or A1B scenario, and an increase in global greenhouse gas emissions or A2 scenario) using the same relationships between the historical upper atmospheric reanalysis data and the surface station climate data. Snowmelt streamflow magnitude and timing were then projected to 2099 based on their historical relationship to mean monthly winter and spring air temperature and precipitation before being compared to the historical averages. Results indicated a shift in the timing of the snowmelt streamflow to earlier in the spring, and a reduction in the magnitude of peak spring streamflow following increasing spring temperatures and decreasing winter precipitation across the basin. These techniques and methods may provide a starting framework for local-level water resource planners to monitor and prepare for any future changes to basinwide hydroclimatology.

Are weather models better than gridded observations for precipitation in the mountains? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutmann, E. D.; Rasmussen, R.; Liu, C.; Ikeda, K.; Clark, M. P.; Brekke, L. D.; Arnold, J.; Raff, D. A.

2013-12-01

Mountain snowpack is a critical storage component in the water cycle, and it provides drinking water for tens of millions of people in the Western US alone. This water store is susceptible to climate change both because warming temperatures are likely to lead to earlier melt and a temporal shift of the hydrograph, and because changing atmospheric conditions are likely to change the precipitation patterns that produce the snowpack. Current measurements of snowfall in complex terrain are limited in number due in part to the logistics of installing equipment in complex terrain. We show that this limitation leads to statistical artifacts in gridded observations of current climate including errors in precipitation season totals of a factor of two or more, increases in wet day fraction, and decreases in storm intensity. In contrast, a high-resolution numerical weather model (WRF) is able to reproduce observed precipitation patterns, leading to confidence in its predictions for areas without measurements and new observations support this. Running WRF for a future climate scenario shows substantial changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation in the mountains related to the physics of hydrometeor production and detrainment that are not captured by statistical downscaling products. The stationarity in statistical downscaling products is likely to lead to important errors in our estimation of future precipitation in complex terrain.

Climate relationships to fecal bacterial densities in Maryland shellfish harvest waters.

PubMed

Leight, A K; Hood, R; Wood, R; Brohawn, K

2016-02-01

Coastal states of the United States (US) routinely monitor shellfish harvest waters for types of bacteria that indicate the potential presence of fecal pollution. The densities of these indicator bacteria in natural waters may be related to climate in several ways, including through runoff from precipitation and survival related to water temperatures. The relationship between interannual precipitation and air temperature patterns and the densities of fecal indicator bacteria in shellfish harvest waters in Maryland's portion of the Chesapeake Bay was quantified using 34 years of data (1979-2013). Annual and seasonal precipitation totals had a strong positive relationship with average fecal coliform levels (R(2) = 0.69) and the proportion of samples with bacterial densities above the FDA regulatory criteria (R(2) = 0.77). Fecal coliform levels were also significantly and negatively related to average annual air temperature (R(2) = -0.43) and the average air temperature of the warmest month (R(2) = -0.57), while average seasonal air temperature was only significantly related to fecal coliform levels in the summer. River and regional fecal coliform levels displayed a wide range of relationships with precipitation and air temperature patterns, with stronger relationships in rural areas and mainstem Bay stations. Fecal coliform levels tended to be higher in years when the bulk of precipitation occurred throughout the summer and/or fall (August to September). Fecal coliform levels often peaked in late fall and winter, with precipitation peaking in summer and early fall. Continental-scale sea level pressure (SLP) analysis revealed an association between atmospheric patterns that influence both extratropical and tropical storm tracks and very high fecal coliform years, while regional precipitation was found to be significantly correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific North American Pattern. These findings indicate that management of shellfish harvest waters should account for changes in climate conditions and that SLP patterns may be particularly important for predicting years with extremely high levels of fecal coliforms. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Understanding Copper Isotope Behavior in the High Temperature Magmatic-Hydrothermal Porphyry Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregory, Melissa J.; Mathur, Ryan

2017-11-01

Copper stable isotope geochemistry has the potential to constrain aspects of ore deposit formation once variations in the isotopic data can be related to the physiochemical conditions during metal deposition. This study presents Cu isotope ratios for samples from the Pebble porphyry Cu-Au-Mo deposit in Alaska. The δ65Cu values for hypogene copper sulfides range from -2.09‰ to 1.11‰ and show linear correlations with the δ18O isotope ratios calculated for the fluid in equilibrium with the hydrothermal alteration minerals in each sample. Samples with sodic-potassic, potassic, and illite alteration display a negative linear correlation between the Cu and O isotope results. This suggests that fractionation of Cu isotopes between the fluid and precipitating chalcopyrite is positive as the hydrothermal fluid is evolving from magmatic to mixed magmatic-meteoric compositions. Samples with advanced argillic alteration display a weak positive linear correlation between Cu and O isotope results consistent with small negative fluid-chalcopyrite Cu isotope fractionation during fluid evolution. The hydrothermal fluids that formed sodic-potassic, potassic, and illite alteration likely transported Cu as CuHS0. Hydrothermal fluids that resulted in advanced argillic alteration likely transport Cu as CuCl2-. The pH conditions also control Cu isotope fractionation, consistent with previous experimental work. Larger fractionation factors were found between fluids and chalcopyrite precipitating under neutral conditions contrasting with small fractionation factors calculated between fluids and chalcopyrite precipitating under acidic conditions. Therefore, this study proposes that hydrothermal fluid compositions and pH conditions are related to Cu isotope variations in high temperature magmatic-hydrothermal deposits.

Tree Ring Analyses Unlock a Century of Hydroclimatic Variability Across the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunello, C. F.; Andermann, C.; Helle, G.; Comiti, F.; Tonon, G.; Hovius, N.

2017-12-01

Climate change has altered precipitation patterns and impacted the spatio-temporal distribution and availability of water in high mountain environments. For example, intensification of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) increases the potential for moisture laden air to breach the Himalayan orographic barrier and penetrate into the arid, elevated southern Tibetan Plateau, with geomorphological and hydrological consequences. Such trends should be considered against a solid background, but a consistent record of centennial monsoon dynamics in the trans-Himalayan region has never been developed. Instrumental data are sparse and only cover a limited time period as well as remotely sensed information. Meanwhile, models have major systematic bias and substantial uncertainty in reproducing ISM interannual variability. In this context, hydro-climatic proxies, such as oxygen stable isotope ratios in cellulose of tree rings, are a valuable source of data, especially because isotope mass spectroscopy can unlock yearly resolved information by tracing the isotopic signature (18O) stored within each growth ring. Here we present three centennial records of monsoon dynamics, along a latitudinal transect, spanning a pronounced precipitation gradient across the Himalayan orogen. Three sites were selected along the Kali Gandaki valley in the central Himalayas (Nepal), this valley connects the wet, monsoon dominated Gangetic plain with the arid Tibetan Plateau. Our transect covers the sensitive northern end of the precipitation gradient, located in the upper part of the catchment. Our results show that inter-annual variation of monsoon strength can be reconstructed by tree ring δ18O. The inferred monsoon dynamics are compared against independent constraints on precipitation, snow cover and river discharge. Different water sources contribute disproportionally at the three sites, reflecting spatial and temporal shifts of the westerlies and the Indian summer monsoon. These two dominant sources of humidity are complemented by recycled continental circulation characterizing pre-monsoon rainfall. Our yearly resolved records of monsoon strength provide insights into anomalous hydro-climatic years and highlight the importance of precipitation variability for the hydrological processes in high mountain regions.

Characterizing hydroclimatic variability in tributaries of the Upper Colorado River Basin—WY1911-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matter, Margaret A.; Garcia, Luis A.; Fontane, Darrell G.; Bledsoe, Brian

2010-01-01

SummaryMountain snowpack is the main source of water in the semi-arid Colorado River Basin (CRB), and while the demands for water are increasing, competing and often conflicting, the supply is limited and has become increasingly variable over the 20th Century. Greater variability is believed to contribute to lower accuracy in water supply forecasts, plus greater variability violates the assumption of stationarity, a fundamental assumption of many methods used in water resources engineering planning, design and management. Thus, it is essential to understand the underpinnings of hydroclimatic variability in order to accurately predict effects of climate changes and effectively meet future water supply challenges. A new methodology was applied to characterized time series of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow (i.e., historic and reconstructed undepleted flows) according to the three climate regimes that occurred in CRB during the 20th Century. Results for two tributaries in the Upper CRB show that hydroclimatic variability is more deterministic than previously thought because it entails complementary temperature and precipitation patterns associated with wetter or drier conditions on climate regime and annual scales. Complementary temperature and precipitation patterns characterize climate regime type (e.g., cool/wet and warm/dry), and the patterns entail increasing or decreasing temperatures and changes in magnitude and timing of precipitation according to the climate regime type. Accompanying each climate regime on annual scales are complementary temperature ( T) and precipitation ( P) patterns that are associated with upcoming precipitation and annual basin yield (i.e., total annual flow volume at a streamflow gauge). Annual complementary T and P patterns establish by fall, are detectable as early as September, persist to early spring, are related to the relative magnitude of upcoming precipitation and annual basin yield, are unique to climate regime type, and are specific to each river basin. Thus, while most of the water supply in the Upper CRB originates from winter snowpack, statistically significant indictors of relative magnitude of upcoming precipitation and runoff are evident in the fall, well before appreciable snow accumulation. Results of this study suggest strategies that may integrated into existing forecast methods to potentially improve forecast accuracy and advance lead time by as much as six months (i.e., from April 1 to October 1 of the previous year). These techniques also have applications in downscaling climate models and in river restoration and management.

Spatial downscaling algorithm of TRMM precipitation based on multiple high-resolution satellite data for Inner Mongolia, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Limin; Fan, Keke; Li, Wei; Liu, Tingxi

2017-12-01

Daily precipitation data from 42 stations in Inner Mongolia, China for the 10 years period from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2010 was utilized along with downscaled data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° for the same period based on the statistical relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), meteorological variables, and digital elevation models (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_elevation_model) (DEM) using the leave-one-out (LOO) cross validation method and multivariate step regression. The results indicate that (1) TRMM data can indeed be used to estimate annual precipitation in Inner Mongolia and there is a linear relationship between annual TRMM and observed precipitation; (2) there is a significant relationship between TRMM-based precipitation and predicted precipitation, with a spatial resolution of 0.50° × 0.50°; (3) NDVI and temperature are important factors influencing the downscaling of TRMM precipitation data for DEM and the slope is not the most significant factor affecting the downscaled TRMM data; and (4) the downscaled TRMM data reflects spatial patterns in annual precipitation reasonably well, showing less precipitation falling in west Inner Mongolia and more in the south and southeast. The new approach proposed here provides a useful alternative for evaluating spatial patterns in precipitation and can thus be applied to generate a more accurate precipitation dataset to support both irrigation management and the conservation of this fragile grassland ecosystem.

investigating the use of geophysical techniques to detect hydrocarbon seeps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somwe, Vincent Tambwe

In the Cement oil field, seeps occur in the Hydrocarbon Induced Diagenetic Aureole (HIDA).This 14 square km diagenetic alteration region is mainly characterized by the: (1) secondary carbonate minerals deposition that tends to form ridges throughout the oil field; (2) disseminated pyrite in the vicinity of the fault zones; (3) uranium occurrence and the change in color pattern from red to bleached red sandstone. Generally the HIDA of the Cement oil field is subdivided into four zones: (1) carbonate cemented sandstone zone (zone 1), (2) altered sandstone zone (zone 2), (3) sulfide zone (zone 3) and (4) unaltered sandstone zone (zone 4). This study investigated the use of geophysical techniques to detect alteration zones over the Cement oil field. Magnetic and electromagnetic data were acquired at 5 m interval using the geometric G858 magnetometer and the Geonics EM-31 respectively. Both total magnetic intensity and bulk conductivity were found to decrease across boundaries between unaltered and altered sandstones. Boundaries between sulfide and carbonate zones, which in most cases were located in fault zones, were found to be characterized by higher magnetic and bulk conductivity readings. The contrast between the background and the highest positive peak was found to be in the range of 0.5-10% for total magnetic intensity and 258-450% for bulk conductivity respectively; suggesting that the detection of hydrocarbon seeps would be more effective with EM techniques. The study suggests that geophysical techniques can be used to delineate contact between the different alteration zones especially where metallic minerals such as pyrite are precipitated. The occurrence of carbonate cemented sandstone in the Cement oil field can be used as a pathfinder for hydrocarbon reservoir. The change in color in the altered sandstone zone can still be useful in the hydrocarbon exploration.

Florida Agriculture - Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects Upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake; Cooley, Zachary Clayton; Mitchell, Brandie

2010-01-01

This project utilizes Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Landsat satellite data to assess the impact of sea breeze precipitation upon areas of agricultural land use in southern Florida. Water is a critical resource to agriculture, and the availability of water for agricultural use in Florida continues to remain a key issue. Recent projections of statewide water use by 2020 estimate that 9.3 billion gallons of water per day will be demanded, and agriculture represents 47% of this demand (Bronson 2003). Farmers have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. Sea breeze thunderstorms are responsible for much of the rainfall delivered to Florida during the wet season (May-October) and have been recognized as an important overall contributor of rainfall in southern Florida (Almeida 2003). TRMM satellite data was used to analyze how sea breeze-induced thunderstorms during El Nino and La Nina affected interannual patterns of precipitation in southern Florida from 1998-2009. TRMM's Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager provide data to quantify water vapor in the atmosphere, precipitation rates and intensity, and the distribution of precipitation. Rainfall accumulation data derived from TRMM and other microwave sensors were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of rainfall during each phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through the use of TRMM and Landsat, slight variations were observed, but it was determined that neither sea breeze nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida were strongly affected by ENSO during the study period. However, more research is needed to characterize the influence of ENSO on summer weather patterns in South Florida. This research will provide the basis for continued observations and study with the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.

Fracture sealing caused by mineral precipitation: The role of aperture and mineral heterogeneity on precipitation-induced permeability loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, T.; Detwiler, R. L.

2017-12-01

Fractures act as dominant pathways for fluid flow in low-permeability rocks. However, in many subsurface environments, fluid rock reactions can lead to mineral precipitation, which alters fracture surface geometry and reduces fracture permeability. In natural fractures, surface mineralogy and roughness are often heterogeneous, leading to variations in both velocity and reactive surface area. The combined effects of surface roughness and mineral heterogeneity can lead to large disparities in local precipitation rates that are difficult to predict due to the strong coupling between dissolved mineral transport and reactions at the fracture surface. Recent experimental observations suggest that mineral precipitation in a heterogeneous fracture may promote preferential flow and focus large dissolved ion concentrations into regions with limited reactive surface area. Here, we build on these observations using reactive transport simulations. Reactive transport is simulated with a quasi-steady-state 2D model that uses a depth-averaged mass-transfer relationship to describe dissolved mineral transport across the fracture aperture and local precipitation reactions. Mineral precipitation-induced changes to fracture surface geometry are accounted for using two different approaches: (1) by only allowing reactive minerals to grow vertically, and (2) by allowing three-dimensional mineral growth at reaction sites. Preliminary results from simulations using (1) suggest that precipitation-induced aperture reduction focuses flow into thin flow paths. This flow focusing causes a reduction in the fracture-scale precipitation rate, and precipitation ceases when the reaction zone extends the entire length of the fracture. This approach reproduces experimental observations at early time reasonably well, but as precipitation proceeds, reaction sites can grow laterally along the fracture surfaces, which is not predicted by (1). To account for three-dimensional mineral growth (2), we have incorporated a level-set-method based approach for tracking the mineral interfaces in three dimensions. This provides a mechanistic approach for simulating the dynamics of the formation, and eventual closing, of preferential flow paths by precipitation-induced aperture alteration, that do not occur using (1).

Zonal wind indices to reconstruct United States winter precipitation during El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnham, D. J.; Steinschneider, S.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The highly discussed 2015/16 El Niño event, which many likened to the similarly strong 1997/98 El Niño event, led to precipitation impacts over the continental United States (CONUS) inconsistent with general expectations given past events and model-based forecasts. This presents a challenge for regional water managers and others who use seasonal precipitation forecasts who previously viewed El Niño events as times of enhanced confidence in seasonal water availability and flood risk forecasts. It is therefore useful to understand the extent to which wintertime CONUS precipitation during El Niño events can be explained by seasonal sea surface temperature heating patterns and the extent to which the precipitation is a product of natural variability. In this work, we define two seasonal indices based on the zonal wind field spanning from the eastern Pacific to the western Atlantic over CONUS that can explain El Niño precipitation variation spatially throughout CONUS over 11 historic El Niño events from 1950 to 2016. The indices reconstruct El Niño event wintertime (Jan-Mar) gridded precipitation over CONUS through cross-validated regression much better than the traditional ENSO sea surface temperature indices or other known modes of variability. Lastly, we show strong relationships between sea surface temperature patterns and the phases of the zonal wind indices, which in turn suggests that some of the disparate CONUS precipitation during El Niño events can be explained by different heating patterns. The primary contribution of this work is the identification of intermediate variables (in the form of zonal wind indices) that can facilitate further studies into the distinct hydroclimatic response to specific El Niño events.

Insight into Flufenamic Acid Cocrystal Dissolution in the Presence of a Polymer in Solution: from Single Crystal to Powder Dissolution.

PubMed

Guo, Minshan; Wang, Ke; Qiao, Ning; Fábián, László; Sadiq, Ghazala; Li, Mingzhong

2017-12-04

Effects of three polymers, polyethylene glycol (PEG), polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP), and copolymer of vinylpyrrolidone/vinyl acetate (PVP-VA), on the dissolution behavior of the cocrystals of flufenamic acid with theophylline (FFA-TP CO) and nicotinamide (FFA-NIC CO) were investigated at multiple length scales. At the molecular level, the interactions of crystal surfaces with a polymer were analyzed by observing etching pattern changes using atomic force microscopy. At the macroscopic scale, dissolution rates of particular faces of a single crystal were determined by measurement of the physical retreat velocities of the faces using optical light microscopy. In the bulk experiments, the FFA concentration in a dissolution medium in the absence or presence of a polymer was measured under both sink and nonsink conditions. It has been found that the dissolution mechanisms of FFA-TP CO are controlled by the defect sites of the crystal surface and by precipitation of the parent drug FFA as individual crystals in the bulk fluid. In contrast, the dissolution mechanisms of FFA-NIC CO are controlled by surface layer removal and by a surface precipitation mechanism, where the parent drug FFA precipitates directly onto the surface of the dissolving cocrystals. Through controlling the dissolution environment by predissolving a polymer, PVP or PVP-VA, which can interact with the crystal surface to alter its dissolution properties, improved solubility, and dissolution rates of FFA-TP CO and FFA-NIC CO have been demonstrated.

Trace gas and vegetation feedback responses of Alaskan tussock tundra to long-term snow depth manipulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebbs, L. M.; Taneva, L.; Sullivan, P.; Welker, J. M.

2009-12-01

Changes in the precipitation and temperature regimes in Northern Alaska are manifesting themselves through shifts in sea ice, vegetation traits, animal migration timing and hydrologic dynamics. Changes in precipitation and soil temperature result in changes in plant mineral nutrition, soil nutrient availability, trace gas exchanges and differential nutrient acquisition strategies by arctic plants. In this study, we report on the extent to which long-term increases in snow depth, along with reductions in snow depth alter the magnitudes and pattern of CO2 exchange, soil properties and vegetation traits. A doubling of snow depth (from ~0.5 to ~1.0m) results in a delay of the growing season by ~ 2 weeks, however, by peak season, the rates of CO2 exchange are 50% higher in areas which had experienced deeper snow depth levels. To the contrary, long-term reductions in snow depth results in accelerated rates of plant phenology, however CO2 exchange rates at peak season are 30% less than those areas under ambient snow cover in the preceding winter. Reduced snow depth areas had the coldest winter soil temperatures while the deeper areas had the warmest winter soil temperatures, which may partially explain the summer CO2 fluxes indirectly via different rates of winter N mineralization and differences in leaf N properties. Our results indicate that shifting fall, winter and spring when snow is the primary form of precipitation, may have profound effects on tussock tundra systems.

Recent variations in seasonality of temperature and precipitation in Canada, 1976-95

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitfield, Paul H.; Bodtker, Karin; Cannon, Alex J.

2002-11-01

A previously reported analysis of rehabilitated monthly temperature and precipitation time series for several hundred stations across Canada showed generally spatially coherent patterns of variation between two decades (1976-85 and 1986-95). The present work expands that analysis to finer time scales and a greater number of stations. We demonstrate how the finer temporal resolution, at 5 day or 11 day intervals, increases the separation between clusters of recent variations in seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation. We also expand the analysis by increasing the number of stations from only rehabilitated monthly data sets to rehabilitated daily sets, then to approximately 1500 daily observation stations. This increases the spatial density of data and allows a finer spatial resolution of patterns between the two decades. We also examine the success of clustering partial records, i.e. sites where the data record is incomplete. The intent of this study was to be consistent with previous work and explore how greater temporal and spatial detail in the climate data affects the resolution of patterns of recent climate variations. The variations we report for temperature and precipitation are taking place at different temporal and spatial scales. Further, the spatial patterns are much broader than local climate regions and ecozones, indicating that the differences observed may be the result of variations in atmospheric circulation.

Resilience vs. decline: Precipitation and atmospheric change drive contrasting responses in invertebrate communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Facey, Sarah L.

Invertebrates form the foundation of terrestrial ecosystems, far outnumbering their vertebrate counterparts in terms of abundance, biomass and diversity. As such, arthropod communities play vitally important roles in ecosystem processes ranging from pollination to soil fertility. Given the importance of invertebrates in ecosystems, predicting their responses - and those of the communities they form - to global change is one of the great challenges facing contemporary ecology. Our climate is changing as a result of the anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), produced from burning fossil fuels and land use change. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere now exceeds the range the Earth has seen in the last 800,000 years. Through the effect of such gases on radiative forcing, sustained greenhouse gas emissions will continue to drive increases in global average temperatures. Additionally, precipitation patterns are likely to change across the world, with increases in the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as droughts, as well as alterations in the magnitude and frequency of rainfall events. Climate change is already causing measurable changes in the Earth's biotic environment. Past work has been heavily focused on the responses of plants to various climate change parameters, with most studies including invertebrates limited to highly controlled studies of pair-wise interactions between one arthropod species and its host plant. Relatively little work to date, however, has looked at the potential impacts of climatic and atmospheric change for invertebrate communities as a whole. The overarching goal of this project was to help remedy this research gap, specifically by investigating the effects of precipitation and atmospheric change on invertebrate communities in grassland and woodland habitat, respectively. Chapters 2 and 4 synthesised recent work on climate change-driven alterations in precipitation and atmospheric change impacts on invertebrates in grassland and woodland systems, respectively. These chapters both highlighted the need for more community-level studies looking at the effects of global change on invertebrates, coupled with greater geographical representation across ecosystems. Particularly for atmospheric change studies, there has been a strong bias toward Northern Hemisphere plantation systems in previous work. Empirical research chapters 3, 5 and 6 used two state-of-the-art field-scale experimental platforms to address the question of how climatic and atmospheric changes will impact invertebrate communities in two Southern Hemisphere systems. Specifically, chapter 3 investigated how a subtropical grassland invertebrate community will respond to five climate change precipitation scenarios, including alterations in the seasonality, frequency and magnitude of rainfall events. Chapters 5 and 6 determined the effects of elevated concentrations of CO2 gas on the overall invertebrate (chapter 5) and ant community (chapter 6) of a critically endangered Eucalyptus woodland. Taken together, these results present contrasting evidence for invertebrate community-level responses to climatic and atmospheric change. On the one hand, communities may be able to cope with future increases in precipitation variability, suggesting that the ecosystem processes underpinned by invertebrates may remain stable in this system. On the other hand, exposure to levels of CO2 not recently experienced within evolutionary timescales, could result in declines in the abundance of organisms that could play important roles in ecological processes. Avenues for future research are discussed, as well as the limitations and challenges inherent in field-scale, community-level climate change research. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Study of different atmospheric environments associated to storms development in the Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couto, Flavio Tiago do

The study aims to improve the understanding about different atmospheric environments leading to the development of storms associated with heavy precipitation in Madeira Island. For this purpose, four main goals have been considered: 1) To document the synoptic and mesoscale environments associated with heavy precipitation. 2) To characterize surface precipitation patterns that affected the island during some periods of significant accumulated precipitation using numerical modelling. 3) To study the relationship between surface precipitation patterns and mesoscale environments. 4) To highlight how the PhD findings obtained in the first three goals can be translated into an operational forecast context. Concerning the large scale environment, precipitation over the island was favoured by weather systems (e.g, mesoscale convective systems and low pressure systems), as well as by the meridional transport of high amount of moisture from a structure denominated as “Atmospheric River”. The tropical origin of this moisture is underscored, however, their impact on the precipitation in Madeira was not so high during the 10 winter seasons [2002 - 2012] studied. The main factor triggering heavy precipitation events over the island is related to the local orography. The steep terrain favours orographically-induced stationary precipitation over the highlands, although maximum of precipitation at coastal region may be produced by localized blocking effect. These orographic precipitating systems presented different structures, associated with shallow and deep convection. Essentially, the study shows that the combination of airflow dynamics, moist content, and orography is the major mechanism that produces precipitation over the island. These factors together with the event duration act to define the regions of excessive precipitation. Finally, the study highlights two useful points for the operational sector, regarding the meridional water vapour transport and local effects causing significant precipitation over the Island.

Precipitation control over inorganic nitrogen import-export budgets across watersheds: a synthesis of long-term ecological research

Treesearch

E.S. Kane; E.F. Betts; A.J. Burgin; H.M. Cliverd; C.L. Crenshaw; J.B. Fellman; I.H. Myers-Smith; J.A. O' Donnell; D.J. Sobota; W.J. Van Verseveld; J.B. Jones

2008-01-01

We investigated long-term and seasonal patterns of N imports and exports, as well as patterns following climate perturbations, across biomes using data from 15 watersheds from nine Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites in North America. Mean dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) import-export budgets (N import via precipitation-N export via stream flow) for common...

Precipitation thresholds and drought-induced tree die-off: Insights from patterns of Pinus edulis mortality along an environmental stress gradient

Treesearch

Michael J. Clifford; Patrick D. Royer; Neil S. Cobb; David D. Breshears; Paulette L. Ford

2013-01-01

Recent regional tree die-off events appear to have been triggered by a combination of drought and heat - referred to as 'global-change-type drought'. To complement experiments focused on resolving mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality, an evaluation of how patterns of tree die-off relate to highly spatially variable precipitation is needed....

Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary Jeffrey

This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several mountainous areas as suggested by paleoclimatic evidence. Modern analogues of past climates supplement modeling approaches by providing information below the resolution of model simulations. Analogues can be used to examine the controls of spatial paleoclimatic variation if sufficient instrumental data and paleoclimatic evidence are available, and if one carefully exercises uniformitarianism when extrapolating modern relationships to the past.

Acid precipitation and its influence upon aquatic ecosystems--an overview

Treesearch

Eville Gorham

1976-01-01

The impact of acid precipitation reflects a usually deleterious balance between good and bad effects which may lead to serious and sometimes extreme degradation of aquatic as well as terrestrial ecosystems, particularly around metal smelters. Addition of hydrogen ions as sulfuric, nitric, and hydrochloric acid can alter and impoverish the species composition of biotic...

Modelled effects of precipitation on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones

Treesearch

Dieter Gerten; Yiqi Luo; Guerric Le Maire; William J. Parton; Cindy Keough; Ensheng Weng; Claus Beier; Philippe Ciais; Wolfgang Cramer; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Paul J. Hanson; Alan A. K. Knapp; Sune Linder; Dan Nepstad; Lindsey Rustad; Alwyn. Sowerby

2008-01-01

The ongoing changes in the global climate expose the world’s ecosystems not only to increasing CO2 concentrations and temperatures but also to altered precipitation (P) regimes. Using four well-established process-based ecosystem models (LPJ, DayCent, ORCHIDEE, TECO), we explored effects of potential P...

Facilitation drives 65 years of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, Bradley J.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Turner, Raymond M.; Briggs, John M.

2010-01-01

Ecological processes of low-productivity ecosystems have long been considered to be driven by abiotic controls with biotic interactions playing an insignificant role. However, existing studies present conflicting evidence concerning the roles of these factors, in part due to the short temporal extent of most data sets and inability to test indirect effects of environmental variables modulated by biotic interactions. Using structural equation modeling to analyze 65 years of perennial vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert, we found that precipitation had a stronger positive effect on recruitment beneath existing canopies than in open microsites due to reduced evaporation rates. Variation in perennial canopy cover had additional facilitative effects on juvenile recruitment, which was indirectly driven by effects of density and precipitation on cover. Mortality was strongly influenced by competition as indicated by negative density-dependence, whereas precipitation had no effect. The combined direct, indirect, and interactive facilitative effects of precipitation and cover on recruitment were substantial, as was the effect of competition on mortality, providing strong evidence for dual control of community dynamics by climate and biotic interactions. Through an empirically derived simulation model, we also found that the positive feedback of density on cover produces unique temporal abundance patterns, buffering changes in abundance from high frequency variation in precipitation, amplifying effects of low frequency variation, and decoupling community abundance from precipitation patterns at high abundance. Such dynamics should be generally applicable to low-productivity systems in which facilitation is important and can only be understood within the context of long-term variation in climatic patterns. This predictive model can be applied to better manage low-productivity ecosystems, in which variation in biogeochemical processes and trophic dynamics may be driven by positive density-dependent feedbacks that influence temporal abundance and productivity patterns.

Precipitation variation over eastern China and arid central Asia during the past millennium and its possible mechanism: Perspectives from PMIP3 experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jian; Yan, Qing; Jiang, Dabang; Min, Jinzhong; Jiang, Ying

2016-10-01

Multiproxies suggest a tripole humidity pattern in Asia in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 950-1250 A.D.) and Little Ice Age (LIA, 1500-1800 A.D.), with drier (wetter) conditions in arid central Asia (ACA), wetter (drier) conditions in North China, and drier (wetter) conditions in South China. However, the mechanisms behind this reconstructed humidity variation remain unclear. In this study, we investigate Asian humidity changes by using the last millennium simulations of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3). The results indicate that only one out of nine PMIP3 models (Meteorological Research Institute Coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Model version 3) can well reproduce the reconstructed humidity pattern. This model indicates that the tripole humidity pattern is mainly caused by precipitation changes in spring and summer and is prominent in the past millennium on a multidecadal time scale. In spring, the reduction (increase) of precipitation in ACA and South China is attributed to the northward (southward) shift of the westerlies and a weakened (strengthened) western Pacific subtropical high in the MCA (LIA). In summer, precipitation over ACA decreases (increases) due to a local descending (ascending) motion, while abundant (deficient) precipitation over eastern China results from the enhanced (depressed) summer monsoon. Moreover, we suggest that a La Niña (El Niño)-like condition may be the primary reason the tripole precipitation pattern was maintained in the MCA (LIA), although a warmer (colder) North Pacific and North Atlantic also play a role. The mechanisms must be further validated since most simulations fail to reproduce the reconstructed humidity condition in the MCA/LIA, making model-model comparisons difficult.

An Investigation of Topography Modulated Low Level Moisture Convergence Patterns in the Southern Appalachians Using WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, A. M.; Duan, Y.; Barros, A.

2015-12-01

The Southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM) region is a biodiversity hot-spot that is vulnerable to land use/land cover changes due to its proximity to the rapidly growing population in the Southeast U.S. Persistent near surface moisture and associated microclimates observed in this region have been documented since the colonization of the area. The landform in this area, in particular in the inner mountain region, is highly complex with nested valleys and ridges. The geometry of the terrain causes distinct diurnal and seasonal local flow patterns that result in highly complex interactions of this low level moisture with meso- and synoptic-scale cyclones passing through the region. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used to conduct high resolution simulations of several case studies of warm season precipitation in the SAM with different synoptic-scale conditions to investigate this interaction between local and larger-scale flow patterns. The aim is to elucidate the microphysical interactions among these shallow orographic clouds and preexisting precipitating cloud systems and identify uncertainties in the model microphysics using in situ measurements. Findings show that ridge-valley precipitation gradients, in particular the "reverse" to the classical orographic effect observed in inner mountain valleys, is linked to horizontal heterogeneity in the vertical structure of low level cloud and precipitation promoted through landform controls on local flow. Moisture convergence patterns follow the peaks and valleys as represented by WRF terrain, and the topography effectively controls their timing and spatial structure. The simulations support the hypothesis that ridge-valley precipitation gradients, and in particular the reverse orographic enhancement effect in inner mountain valleys, is linked to horizontal heterogeneity in the vertical structure of low level clouds and precipitation promoted through landform controls on moisture convergence.

Environmental effects on the shape variation of male ultraviolet patterns in the Brimstone butterfly ( Gonepteryx rhamni, Pieridae, Lepidoptera)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecháček, Pavel; Stella, David; Keil, Petr; Kleisner, Karel

2014-12-01

The males of the Brimstone butterfly ( Gonepteryx rhamni) have ultraviolet pattern on the dorsal surfaces of their wings. Using geometric morphometrics, we have analysed correlations between environmental variables (climate, productivity) and shape variability of the ultraviolet pattern and the forewing in 110 male specimens of G. rhamni collected in the Palaearctic zone. To start with, we subjected the environmental variables to principal component analysis (PCA). The first PCA axis (precipitation, temperature, latitude) significantly correlated with shape variation of the ultraviolet patterns across the Palaearctic. Additionally, we have performed two-block partial least squares (PLS) analysis to assess co-variation between intraspecific shape variation and the variation of 11 environmental variables. The first PLS axis explained 93 % of variability and represented the effect of precipitation, temperature and latitude. Along this axis, we observed a systematic increase in the relative area of ultraviolet colouration with increasing temperature and precipitation and decreasing latitude. We conclude that the shape variation of ultraviolet patterns on the forewings of male Brimstones is correlated with large-scale environmental factors.

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

Relationships between interdecadal variability and extreme precipitation events in South America during the monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Alice; Laureanti, Nicole; Rodakoviski, Rodrigo

2016-04-01

This study aims to clarify the impact of interdecadal climate oscillations (periods of 8 years and longer) on the frequency of extreme precipitation events over South America in the monsoon season (austral spring and summer), and determine the influence of these oscillations on the daily precipitation frequency distribution. Interdecadal variability modes of precipitation during the monsoon season are provided by a continental-scale rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis for the 60 years period 1950-2009. The main disclosed modes are robust, since they are reproduced for different periods. They can produce differences around 50% in monthly precipitation between opposite phases. Oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields associated with these modes indicate that they have physical basis. The first modes in spring and summer display highest correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) SST mode, while the second modes have strongest correlation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) SST mode. However, there are also other influences on these modes. As the most dramatic consequences of climate variability stem from its influence on the frequency of extreme precipitation events, it is important to also assess this influence, since variations in monthly or seasonal precipitation do not necessarily imply significant alterations in their extreme events. This study seeks to answer the questions: i) Do opposite phases of the main interdecadal modes of seasonal precipitation produce significant anomalies in the frequency of extreme events? ii) Does the interdecadal variability of the frequency of extreme events show similar spatial and temporal structure as the interdecadal variability of the seasonal precipitation? iii) Does the interdecadal variability change the daily precipitation probability distribution between opposite phases? iv) In this case, which ranges of daily precipitation are most affected? The significant anomalies of the extreme events frequency in opposite phases of the interdecadal oscillations display spatial patterns very similar to those of the corresponding modes. In addition, the modes of extreme events frequency bear similarity to the modes of seasonal precipitation, although a complete assessment of this similarity is not possible with the daily data available. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied to the daily precipitation series for positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes, in regions with high factor loadings. It shows, with significance level better than 0.01, that daily precipitation from opposite phases pertains to different frequency distributions. Further analyses disclose clearly that there is much greater relative impact of the interdecadal oscillations on the extreme ranges of daily rainfall than in the ranges of moderate and light rainfall. This impact is more linear is spring than in summer. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by: Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) CRN3035 which is supported by the US National Science Foundation (Grant GEO-1128040), European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement n° 212492 (CLARIS LPB), and CNPq-Brazil (National Council for Scientific and Technologic Development).

Refining the cheatgrass-fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends.

PubMed

Pilliod, David S; Welty, Justin L; Arkle, Robert S

2017-10-01

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years' growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1-3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

Ecohydrology of dry regions: storage versus pulse soil water dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lauenroth, William K.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Although arid and semiarid regions are defined by low precipitation, the seasonal timing of temperature and precipitation can influence net primary production and plant functional type composition. The importance of precipitation seasonality is evident in semiarid areas of the western U.S., which comprise the Intermountain (IM) zone, a region that receives important winter precipitation and is dominated by woody plants and the Great Plains (GP), a region that receives primarily summer precipitation and is dominated by perennial grasses. Although these general relationships are well recognized, specific differences in water cycling between these regions have not been well characterized. We used a daily time step soil water simulation model and twenty sites from each region to analyze differences in soil water dynamics and ecosystem water balance. IM soil water patterns are characterized by storage of water during fall, winter, and spring resulting in relatively reliable available water during spring and early summer, particularly in deep soil layers. By contrast, GP soil water patterns are driven by pulse precipitation events during the warm season, resulting in fluctuating water availability in all soil layers. These contrasting patterns of soil water—storage versus pulse dynamics—explain important differences between the two regions. Notably, the storage dynamics of the IN sites increases water availability in deep soil layers, favoring the deeper rooted woody plants in that region, whereas the pulse dynamics of the Great Plains sites provide water primarily in surface layers, favoring the shallow-rooted grasses in that region. In addition, because water received when plants are either not active or only partially so is more vulnerable to evaporation and sublimation than water delivered during the growing season, IM ecosystems use a smaller fraction of precipitation for transpiration (47%) than GP ecosystems (49%). Recognizing the pulse-storage dichotomy in soil water regimes between the IM and GP regions may be useful for understanding the potential influence of climate changes on soil water patterns and resulting dominant plant functional groups in both regions.

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin; Arkle, Robert

2017-01-01

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

Future changes of interannual variation of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation using the CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamizawa, Nozomi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.

2015-04-01

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region is one of the most populated areas in the world. Since the life of people who live in the region and the industry are strongly dependent on the ASM precipitation, it is interested that how it would change under the circumstance of global warming. Many studies have reported that the mean ASM precipitation would increase by comparing the CMIP models' climatology. Although the changes in mean climate are important, the long-term changes of interannual variability in precipitation are also significant. This study investigated the long-term trend of interannual precipitation variation over the ASM region by using 22 CMIP5 models. The RCP4.5 scenario was used. To investigate the long-term trend of the interannual variation of the ASM precipitation, each model data was recreated to 2.5 degree resolution and a running standard deviation for 21 years of June-July-August (JJA) precipitation were calculated. Next, we created the coefficient variation (CV) by dividing the running standard deviation by the mean JJA precipitation. Then we run a Mann-Kendall test for the CV at each grid. There were more areas which were indicated a statistically significant increasing trend than a decreasing trend in the ASM region. 40.6% of the region indicated an increasing trend in the future. On the other hand, 16.8% of the area was indicated to have a decreasing trend. It was also common in the global scale that the there were more areas that indicated an increasing trend than a decreasing trend. We also divided the area into three groups: land, shore and open ocean. In the ASM region, the shore areas particularly had an increasing CV trend. To investigate the long-term changes of the interannual variability of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation over the ASM region, we conducted a composite analysis for the five wettest and driest years for two periods: the early 21st century (2007-2031) and the late 21st century (2076-2100). The special patterns of the interannual variation of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation between the two periods had differed only slightly. A positive deviation precipitation band with a cyclonic circulation was recognized from across the Bay of Bengal to the equatorial Northwest Pacific. The none-big-difference of the patterns may suggest that interannual variation in the ASM region would increase not because the pattern changes, but because the pattern's strength gets stronger or its frequency gets higher.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

2017-07-01

Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

Fungal symbiosis and precipitation alter traits and dune building by the ecosystem engineer, Ammophila breviligulata.

PubMed

Emery, Sarah M; Bell-Dereske, Lukas; Rudgers, Jennifer A

2015-04-01

Ecosystem engineer species influence their community and ecosystem by creating or altering the physical structure of habitats. The function of ecosystem engineers is variable and can depend on both abiotic and biotic factors. Here we make use of a primary successional system to evaluate the direct and interactive effects of climate change (precipitation) and fungal endophyte symbiosis on population traits and ecosystem function of the ecosystem engineering grass species, Ammophila breviligulata. We manipulated endophyte presence in A. breviligulata in combination with rain-out shelters and rainfall additions in a factorial field experiment established in 2010 on Lake Michigan sand dunes. We monitored plant traits, survival, growth, and sexual reproduction of A. breviligulata from 2010-2013, and quantified ecosystem engineering as the sand accumulation rate. Presence of the endophyte in A. breviligulata increased vegetative growth by up to 19%, and reduced sexual reproduction by up to 46% across all precipitation treatments. Precipitation was a less significant factor than endophyte colonization for A. breviligulata growth. Reduced precipitation increased average leaf number per tiller but had no other effects on plant traits. Changes in A. breviligulata traits corresponded to increases in sand accumulation in plots with the endophyte as well as in plots with reduced precipitation. Sand accumulation is a key ecosystem function in these primary successional habitats, and so microbial symbiosis in this ecosystem engineer could lead to direct effects on the value of these dune habitats for humans.

Contribution of large-scale midlatitude disturbances to hourly precipitation extremes in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbero, Renaud; Abatzoglou, John T.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2018-02-01

Midlatitude synoptic weather regimes account for a substantial portion of annual precipitation accumulation as well as multi-day precipitation extremes across parts of the United States (US). However, little attention has been devoted to understanding how synoptic-scale patterns contribute to hourly precipitation extremes. A majority of 1-h annual maximum precipitation (AMP) across the western US were found to be linked to two coherent midlatitude synoptic patterns: disturbances propagating along the jet stream, and cutoff upper-level lows. The influence of these two patterns on 1-h AMP varies geographically. Over 95% of 1-h AMP along the western coastal US were coincident with progressive midlatitude waves embedded within the jet stream, while over 30% of 1-h AMP across the interior western US were coincident with cutoff lows. Between 30-60% of 1-h AMP were coincident with the jet stream across the Ohio River Valley and southeastern US, whereas a a majority of 1-h AMP over the rest of central and eastern US were not found to be associated with either midlatitude synoptic features. Composite analyses for 1-h AMP days coincident to cutoff lows and jet stream show that an anomalous moisture flux and upper-level dynamics are responsible for initiating instability and setting up an environment conducive to 1-h AMP events. While hourly precipitation extremes are generally thought to be purely convective in nature, this study shows that large-scale dynamics and baroclinic disturbances may also contribute to precipitation extremes on sub-daily timescales.

Climate along the crest of the US Rocky Mountains during the last glaciation: preliminary insights from numerical modeling of paleoglaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J.; Plummer, M. A.; Huss, E.; Spiess, V. M.; Mackall, B. T.; Jacobsen, R. E.; Quirk, B.

2012-12-01

Climate conditions at the time of the local Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the US Rocky Mountains were assessed using a 2-d coupled glacier energy/mass-balance and ice-flow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003). The model was employed to understand the conditions that would be necessary to sustain valley glaciers and small mountain icecaps at their maximum extents in eight areas distributed along the crest of the range from northern New Mexico (35.8oN) to northern Montana (48.6oN). For each setting, model experiments yield a set of temperature and precipitation combinations that may have accompanied the local LGM. If the results of global and regional climate models are used to constrain temperature depression estimates from our model experiments, the following precipitation pattern emerges for the local LGM. In the northern Rocky Mountains in Montana and northern Wyoming, model results suggest a strong reduction in precipitation of 50% or more. In the central Rocky Mountains of southern Wyoming and Colorado, precipitation appears to have been 50-90% of modern. By contrast, precipitation appears to have been strongly enhanced in the southern Rocky Mountains of New Mexico. These results are broadly consistent with a pattern of precipitation observed in global and regional climate simulations of the LGM in the western U.S., in which precipitation was reduced in the northern Rocky Mountains but increased in the southern Rocky Mountains. This pattern may reflect a southward displacement of mean position the Pacific Jet Stream in western North America during and possibly following the LGM.

Connection between ENSO and Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Oxygen Isotope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Z.; Tian, L.

2016-12-01

In an effort to understand the connection between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) precipitation oxygen isotope, this study investigates the spatial and interannual patterns in summer (JJAS) monsoon precipitation δ18O and satellite water vapor isotope retrievals, especially those patterns associated with convection and vapor transport. Both precipitation and vapor isotope values exhibit a "V" shaped longitudinal pattern in their spatial variations, reflecting the gradual rainout and increase in convective intensity along vapor transport routes. In order to understand interannual variations, an ASM precipitation δ18O index (ASMOI) is introduced to measure the temporal variations in regional precipitation δ18O; and these variations are consistent with central Indo-Pacific convection and cloud-top height. The counter variations in the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years confirm the existence of a positive isotope- ENSO response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases) over the eastern Indian Ocean and southeastern Asia (80°E-120°E/10°S-30°N) as a response to changes in convection. However, JJAS vapor δD over the western Pacific (roughly east of 120oE) varies in opposition, due to the influence of water vapor transport. This opposite variation does not support the interpretation of precipitation isotope-ENSO relationship as changing proportion of vapor transported from different regions, but rather condensation processes associated with convection. These findings are important for studying past ASM and ENSO activity from various isotopic archives and have implications for the study of the atmospheric water cycle.

Coherence among climate signals, precipitation, and groundwater.

PubMed

Ghanbari, Reza Namdar; Bravo, Hector R

2011-01-01

Climate signals may affect groundwater level at different time scales in different geographical regions, and those patterns or time scales can be estimated using coherence analysis. This study shows that the synthesis effort required to search for patterns at the physical geography scale is possible, and this approach should be applicable in other regions of the world. The relations between climate signals, Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Pattern (SOI, PDO, NAO, and NP), precipitation, and groundwater level in three geographical areas of Wisconsin are examined using a three-tiered coherence analysis. In the high frequency band (<4(-1) cycles/year), there is a significant coherence between four climate signals and groundwater level in all three areas. In the low frequency band (>8(-1) to ≤23(-1) cycles/year), we found significant coherence between the SOI and NP signals and groundwater level in the forested area, characterized by shallow wells constructed in sand and gravel aquifers. In the high frequency band, there is significant coherence between the four climate signals and precipitation in all three areas. In the low frequency band, the four climate signals have effect on precipitation in the agricultural area, and SOI and NP have effect on precipitation in the forested and driftless areas. Precipitation affects groundwater level in all three areas, and in high, low and intermediate frequency bands. In the agricultural area, deeper aquifers and a more complex hydrostratigraphy and land use dilute the effect of precipitation on groundwater level for interdecadal frequencies. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of the diurnal precipitation cycle over Sweden and the linkage to large-scale circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walther, A.; Jeong, J.-H.; Chen, D.

2009-04-01

Rainfall events exhibit diurnal cycle in both frequency and amount, of which phase and amplitude show substantial geographic and seasonal variation. Although the diurnal cycle of precipitation is one of the fundamental characteristics to determine local weather and climate, most of sophisticated climate models still have great deficiencies in reproducing it. Thus more exact understanding of the diurnal precipitation cycle and its mechanisms is thought to be very important to improve climate models and their prediction results. In this work we investigate the diurnal cycle of precipitation in Sweden using ground based hourly observations for 1996-2008. For the precipitation amount and frequency, mean diurnal cycles are computed, and the peak timing and amplitude of the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation are estimated by the harmonic analysis method. Clear mean diurnal precipitation cycles as well as distinct spatial patterns for all seasons are derived. In summer, showing the most distinct pattern, the majority of the stations show a clear rainfall maximum in the afternoon (12-18 LST) except for the coastal part of Central Sweden where we see an early-morning peak (00-06 LST) and the east coast of southern Sweden where we find a morning peak (06-12 LST). The clear afternoon peak may be due to high insolation accumulated during the day time in summer leading to a local convection activity later on that day. These coastal bands mostly consist of the stations closest to the Baltic Sea. Meso-scale convection connected to temperature differences between sea and land combined with a favorable wind pattern seems to play a role here. In the transition seasons, spring and autumn, the amplitude is weaker and the spatial pattern of peak timing is less distinct than in summer. In spring the westcoast stations have a morning peak and stations in southeastern Sweden show an afternoon peak. In autumn we see a zonal division with a clear afternoon peak in southern Sweden. This might be due to a steeply decreasing energy input from the solar insolation in the northern parts causing less convection activity but still enough insolation to cause an afternoon peak in southern Sweden. In both seasons, spring and autumn, north of 60 degrees the pattern is mixed showing early-morning, morning and afternoon peaks. The winter pattern is characterized by afternoon peaks along the eastcoast and central South Sweden and morning peaks over the most of the other parts of the country. However, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much weaker compared to that in summer or autumn. In order to examine the large scale circulation which might modulate the diurnal cycle, the Lamb weather types are computed based on sea level pressure fields from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 2 dataset with daily and 6-hourly resolution, respectively. The Lamb types based on 6-hourly SLP underline the high temporal variability of atmospheric conditions over the research area. Throughout all seasons, on about 45% of the days two or more circulation classes are different. In 6.3% (JJA) to 8.4% (DJF) of the days can observe 4 different Lamb classes. Using Lamb types with 6-hourly resolution leads to a somewhat finer classification. On average, for about one third of the days with precipitation the daily Lamb type and the appropriate 6-hourly one are different. The most frequent large-scale circulation classes coupled to precipitation events are of cyclonic or directional type. The atmospheric circulation patterns do not follow a diurnal cycle, whereas the local observed precipitation does. Knowledge about the timing of the rainfall is important in order to assign the right underlying circulation patterns to precipitation events.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Enhances CO2 Exchange Rates in Freshwater Marsh Ecosystems in the Florida Everglades

PubMed Central

Malone, Sparkle L.; Staudhammer, Christina L.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Olivas, Paulo; Ryan, Michael G.; Schedlbauer, Jessica L.; Loescher, Henry W.; Starr, Gregory

2014-01-01

This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009–2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the short-hydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS) and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS) fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO2 on an annual basis (−11 to −110 g CO2 m−2 yr−1) compared to El Niño and neutral years (−5 to −43.5 g CO2 m−2 yr−1). SRS was a small source for CO2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO2 m−2 yr−1) except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (−16 g CO2 m−2 yr−1). Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Niño and La Niña phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades. PMID:25521299

Reference intervals and physiologic alterations in hematologic and biochemical values of free-ranging desert tortoises in the Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christopher, Mary M.; Berry, Kristin H.; Wallis, I.R.; Nagy, K.A.; Henen, B.T.; Peterson, C.C.

1999-01-01

Desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) populations have experienced precipitous declines resulting from the cumulative impact of habitat loss, and human and disease-related mortality. Evaluation of hematologic and biochemical responses of desert tortoises to physiologic and environmental factors can facilitate the assessment of stress and disease in tortoises and contribute to management decisions and population recovery. The goal of this study was to obtain and analyze clinical laboratory data from free-ranging desert tortoises at three sites in the Mojave Desert (California, USA) between October 1990 and October 1995, to establish reference intervals, and to develop guidelines for the interpretation of laboratory data under a variety of environmental and physiologic conditions. Body weight, carapace length, and venous blood samples for a complete blood count and clinical chemistry profile were obtained from 98 clinically healthy adult desert tortoises of both sexes at the Desert Tortoise Research Natural area (western Mojave), Goffs (eastern Mojave) and Ivanpah Valley (northeastern Mojave). Samples were obtained four times per year, in winter (February/March), spring (May/June), summer (July/August), and fall (October). Years of near-, above- and below-average rainfall were represented in the 5 yr period. Minimum, maximum and median values, and central 95 percentiles were used as reference intervals and measures of central tendency for tortoises at each site and/or season. Data were analyzed using repeated measures analysis of variance for significant (P < 0.01) variation on the basis of sex, site, season, and interactions between these variables. Significant sex differences were observed for packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, aspartate transaminase activity, and cholesterol, triglyceride, calcium, and phosphorus concentrations. Marked seasonal variation was observed in most parameters in conjunction with reproductive cycle, hibernation, or seasonal rainfall. Year-to-year differences and long-term alterations primarily reflected winter rainfall amounts. Site differences were minimal, and largely reflected geographic differences in precipitation patterns, such that results from these studies can be applied to other tortoise populations in environments with known rainfall and forage availability patterns.

Genotype and plant trait effects on soil CO2 efflux responses to altered precipitation in switchgrass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods Global climate change models predict increasing drought during the growing season, which will alter many ecosystem processes including soil CO2 efflux (JCO2), with potential consequences for carbon retention in soils. Soil moisture, soil temperature and plant traits such...

Dryland ecosystem responses to precipitation extremes and wildfire at a long-term rainfall manipulation experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, R. F.; Collins, S. L.

2017-12-01

Climate is becoming increasingly more variable due to global environmental change, which is evidenced by fewer, but more extreme precipitation events, changes in precipitation seasonality, and longer, higher severity droughts. These changes, combined with a rising incidence of wildfire, have the potential to strongly impact net primary production (NPP) and key biogeochemical cycles, particularly in dryland ecosystems where NPP is sequentially limited by water and nutrient availability. Here we utilize a ten-year dataset from an ongoing long-term field experiment established in 2007 in which we experimentally altered monsoon rainfall variability to examine how our manipulations, along with naturally occurring events, affect NPP and associated biogeochemical cycles in a semi-arid grassland in central New Mexico, USA. Using long-term regional averages, we identified extremely wet monsoon years (242.8 mm, 2013), and extremely dry monsoon years (86.0 mm, 2011; 80.0 mm, 2015) and water years (117.0 mm, 2011). We examined how changes in precipitation variability and extreme events affected ecosystem processes and function particularly in the context of ecosystem recovery following a 2009 wildfire. Response variables included above- and below-ground plant biomass (ANPP & BNPP) and abundance, soil nitrogen availability, and soil CO2 efflux. Mean ANPP ranged from 3.6 g m-2 in 2011 to 254.5 g m-2 in 2013, while BNPP ranged from 23.5 g m-2 in 2015 to 194.2 g m-2 in 2013, demonstrating NPP in our semi-arid grassland is directly linked to extremes in both seasonal and annual precipitation. We also show increased nitrogen deposition positively affects NPP in unburned grassland, but has no significant impact on NPP post-fire except during extremely wet monsoon years. While soil respiration rates reflect lower ANPP post-fire, patterns in CO2 efflux have not been shown to change significantly in that efflux is greatest following large precipitation events preceded by longer drying periods. Current land surface models poorly represent dryland ecosystems, which frequently undergo extreme weather events. Our long-term experiment provides key insights into ecosystem processes and function, thereby providing capacity for model improvement particularly in the context of future environmental change.

Investigating the Relationship between Ocean Surface Currents and Seasonal Precipitation in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

While many studies have explored the predictive capabilities of teleconnections associated with North American climate, currently established teleconnections offer limited predictability for rainfall in the Western United States. A recent example was the 2015-16 California drought in which a strong ENSO signal did not lead to above average precipitation as was expected. From an exploration of climate and ocean variables available from satellite data, we hypothesize that ocean currents can provide additional information to explain precipitation variability and improve seasonal predictability on the West Coast. Since ocean currents are influenced by surface wind and temperatures, characterizing connections between currents and precipitation patterns has the potential to further our understanding of coastal weather patterns. For the study, we generated gridded point correlation maps to identify ocean areas with high correlation to precipitation time series corresponding to climate regions in the West Coast region. We also used other statistical measures to evaluate ocean `hot spot' regions with significant correlation to West Coast precipitation. Preliminary results show that strong correlations can be found in the tropical regions of the globe.

Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation Intensities Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Disturbances in Indo-China Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revel, M.; Utsumi, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Summer Monsoon precipitation provide support for the livelihood of the people of Southeast Asia where the population density is very high. Monsoon precipitation shows high variation in seasonal and yearly time scales affecting daily life of the people in the regions such Indo-China peninsula where most of the countries depend on agricultural economy. Predictability of seasonal extreme events such as flooding and droughts by different climatic conditions will enhance the ability to mitigate the risk of natural disasters in Indo-China peninsula. In addition lower tropospheric (850hPa) wind flow pattern is very useful in understanding the seasonal variability of Southeastern Asian Summer Monsoon. Furthermore summer monsoon in the Indo-China peninsula is strongly influenced by the local wind-terrain-precipitation interaction. Recently a set of Monsoon Indices has been developed by several researches, Indo China Monsoon Indices (ICMIs) as a representation of lower tropospheric wind flow patterns around Southeast Asian. On the other hand different precipitation providing weather systems vary according to the global position and local weather system. Responses of ICMIs to different precipitation providing weather systems may vary in temporal and spatial scales. Hence the seasonal responses of differentiated precipitation with ICMIs in Indo-China peninsula are being investigated. Objective detection methods are been adopted in order to identify the locations of tropical cyclones (TCs), and westward propagating disturbances (WDs) using a Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis data and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily data is differentiated into TCs, and WDs related precipitation. TCs contribute highly over the east coast of Indo China peninsula where WDs contributed all over land area of Indo-China peninsula but more towards Bay of Bengal. Correlations and regressions suggest that the indices which is calculated using the wind patterns, situated west of Indo-China peninsula tend to increase the moisture production to precipitation which is produced by seasonal winds and local convections. The increment of indices in the east of the peninsula tends withdraw the moisture of TCs and WDs related precipitation in Indo-China peninsula, as those originate from east of the peninsula.

A Dynamic Optimization Technique for Siting the NASA-Clark Atlanta Urban Rain Gauge Network (NCURN)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Taylor, Layi

2003-01-01

NASA satellites and ground instruments have indicated that cities like Atlanta, Georgia may create or alter rainfall. Scientists speculate that the urban heat island caused by man-made surfaces in cities impact the heat and wind patterns that form clouds and rainfall. However, more conclusive evidence is required to substantiate findings from satellites. NASA, along with scientists at Clark Atlanta University, are implementing a dense, urban rain gauge network in the metropolitan Atlanta area to support a satellite validation program called Studies of PRecipitation Anomalies from Widespread Urban Landuse (SPRAWL). SPRAWL will be conducted during the summer of 2003 to further identify and understand the impact of urban Atlanta on precipitation variability. The paper provides an. overview of SPRAWL, which represents one of the more comprehensive efforts in recent years to focus exclusively on urban-impacted rainfall. The paper also introduces a novel technique for deploying rain gauges for SPRAWL. The deployment of the dense Atlanta network is unique because it utilizes Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Decision Support Systems (DSS) to optimize deployment of the rain gauges. These computer aided systems consider access to roads, drainage systems, tree cover, and other factors in guiding the deployment of the gauge network. GIS and DSS also provide decision-makers with additional resources and flexibility to make informed decisions while considering numerous factors. Also, the new Atlanta network and SPRAWL provide a unique opportunity to merge the high-resolution, urban rain gauge network with satellite-derived rainfall products to understand how cities are changing rainfall patterns, and possibly climate.

Asymmetric Responses of Primary Productivity to Altered Precipitation Simulated by Land Surface Models across Three Long-term Grassland Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.; Knapp, A.; Wilcox, K.; Bahn, M.; Smith, M. D.; Ito, A.; Arneth, A.; Harper, A. B.; Ukkola, A.; Paschalis, A.; Poulter, B.; Peng, C.; Reick, C. H.; Hayes, D. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Reinthaler, D.; Chen, G.; Tian, H.; Helene, G.; Zscheischler, J.; Mao, J.; Ingrisch, J.; Nabel, J.; Pongratz, J.; Boysen, L.; Kautz, M.; Schmitt, M.; Krohn, M.; Zeng, N.; Meir, P.; Zhang, Q.; Zhu, Q.; Hasibeder, R.; Vicca, S.; Sippel, S.; Dangal, S. R. S.; Fatichi, S.; Sitch, S.; Shi, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.; Liu, Y.; Piao, S.

2017-12-01

Changes in precipitation variability including the occurrence of extreme events strongly influence plant growth in grasslands. Field measurements of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest a positive asymmetric response with wet years resulting in ANPP gains larger than ANPP declines in dry years. Whether land surface models used for historical simulations and future projections of the coupled carbon-water system in grasslands are capable to simulate such non-symmetrical ANPP responses remains an important open research question. In this study, we evaluate the simulated responses of grassland primary productivity to altered precipitation with fourteen land surface models at the three sites of Colorado Shortgrass Steppe (SGS), Konza prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU) along a rainfall gradient from dry to wet. Our results suggest that: (i) Gross primary production (GPP), NPP, ANPP and belowground NPP (BNPP) show nonlinear response curves (concave-down) in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. In contrast across the sites, primary production increases and then saturates along increasing precipitation with a flattening at the wetter site. (ii) Slopes of spatial relationships between modeled primary production and precipitation are steeper than the temporal slopes (obtained from inter-annual variations). (iii) Asymmetric responses under nominal precipitation range with modeled inter-annual primary production show large uncertainties, and model-ensemble median generally suggests negative asymmetry (greater declines in dry years than increases in wet years) across the three sites. (iv) Primary production at the drier site is predicted to more sensitive to precipitation compared to wetter site, and median sensitivity consistently indicates greater negative impacts of reduced precipitation than positive effects of increased precipitation under extreme conditions. This study implies that most models overemphasize the drought effects or underestimate the watering impacts on primary production in the normal-state, with the direct consequence that carbon-water interactions need to be improved in future model generations with improved mechanistic representations.

Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin

2017-09-01

This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

Inferring Spatio-temporal Variations in the Risk of Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States from Tree-ring Chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Ho, M.; Cook, E. R.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

This work explores how extreme cold-season precipitation dynamics along the west coast of the United States have varied in the past under natural climate variability through an analysis of the moisture anomalies recorded by tree-ring chronologies across the coast and interior of the western U.S. Winters with high total precipitation amounts in the coastal regions are marked by a small number of extreme storms that exhibit distinct spatial patterns of precipitation across the coast and further inland. Building from this observation, this work develops a novel application of dendroclimatic evidence to explore the following questions: a) how is extreme precipitation variability expressed in a network of tree-ring chronologies; b) can this information provide insight on the space-time variability of storm tracks that cause these extreme events; and c) how can the joint variability of extreme precipitation and storm tracks be modeled to develop consistent, multi-centennial reconstructions of both? We use gridded, tree-ring based reconstructions of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extending back 500 years within the western U.S. to build and test a novel statistical framework for reconstructing the space-time variability of coastal extreme precipitation and the associated wintertime storm tracks. Within this framework, we (1) identify joint modes of variability of extreme precipitation fields and tree-ring based PDSI reconstructions; (2) relate these modes to previously identified, unique storm track patterns associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are the dominant type of storm that is responsible for extreme precipitation in the region; and (3) determine latitudinal variations of landfalling ARs across the west coast and their relationship to the these joint modes. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to leverage information on storm track patterns stored in a network of paleoclimate proxies to improve reconstruction fidelity.

Precipitation variability of the Grand Canyon region, 1893 through 2009, and its implications for studying effects of gullying of Holocene terraces and associated archeological sites in Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hereford, Richard; Bennett, Glenn E.; Fairley, Helen C.

2014-01-01

A daily precipitation dataset covering a large part of the American Southwest was compiled for online electronic distribution (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1006/). The dataset contains 10.8 million observations spanning January 1893 through January 2009 from 846 weather stations in six states and 13 climate divisions. In addition to processing the data for distribution, water-year totals and other statistical parameters were calculated for each station with more than 2 years of observations. Division-wide total precipitation, expressed as the average deviation from the individual station means of a climate division, shows that the region—including the Grand Canyon, Arizona, area—has been affected by alternating multidecadal episodes of drought and wet conditions. In addition to compiling and analyzing the long-term regional precipitation data, a second dataset consisting of high-temporal-resolution precipitation measurements collected between November 2003 and January 2009 from 10 localities along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon was compiled. An exploratory study of these high-temporal-resolution precipitation measurements suggests that on a daily basis precipitation patterns are generally similar to those at a long-term weather station in the canyon, which in turn resembles the patterns at other long-term stations on the canyon rims; however, precipitation amounts recorded by the individual inner canyon weather stations can vary substantially from station to station. Daily and seasonal rainfall patterns apparent in these data are not random. For example, the inner canyon record, although short and fragmented, reveals three episodes of widespread, heavy precipitation in late summer 2004, early winter 2005, and summer 2007. The 2004 event and several others had sufficient rainfall to initiate potentially pervasive erosion of the late Holocene terraces and related archeological features located along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon.

Inferring Spatio-temporal Variations in the Risk of Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States from Tree-ring Chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Ho, M.; Cook, E. R.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

This work explores how extreme cold-season precipitation dynamics along the west coast of the United States have varied in the past under natural climate variability through an analysis of the moisture anomalies recorded by tree-ring chronologies across the coast and interior of the western U.S. Winters with high total precipitation amounts in the coastal regions are marked by a small number of extreme storms that exhibit distinct spatial patterns of precipitation across the coast and further inland. Building from this observation, this work develops a novel application of dendroclimatic evidence to explore the following questions: a) how is extreme precipitation variability expressed in a network of tree-ring chronologies; b) can this information provide insight on the space-time variability of storm tracks that cause these extreme events; and c) how can the joint variability of extreme precipitation and storm tracks be modeled to develop consistent, multi-centennial reconstructions of both? We use gridded, tree-ring based reconstructions of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extending back 500 years within the western U.S. to build and test a novel statistical framework for reconstructing the space-time variability of coastal extreme precipitation and the associated wintertime storm tracks. Within this framework, we (1) identify joint modes of variability of extreme precipitation fields and tree-ring based PDSI reconstructions; (2) relate these modes to previously identified, unique storm track patterns associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are the dominant type of storm that is responsible for extreme precipitation in the region; and (3) determine latitudinal variations of landfalling ARs across the west coast and their relationship to the these joint modes. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to leverage information on storm track patterns stored in a network of paleoclimate proxies to improve reconstruction fidelity.

Global Precipitation Analyses (3-Hourly to Monthly) Using TRMM, SSM/I and other Satellite Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the 20-year data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 20 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENS0 variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 deg. latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is discussed. Finally, a TRMM-based 3-hr analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3-hr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 deg. latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 5O deg. N-50 deg. S. Examples are shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Physical mechanisms of the summer precipitation variations in the Taklimakan and Gobi Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, W.; Feng, S.; Chen, J.; Chen, F.

2013-12-01

The Taklimakan and the adjacent Gobi Desert (TD in short) in northwestern China is one of the most arid regions in the middle latitudes, where water is scarce year round. Using observational precipitation and the reanalysis data, this study investigated the variations of summer precipitation in TD and their association with water vapor flux and atmospheric circulation. Though the long-term mean water vapor is mostly comes from the west, the variations of summer precipitation in TD is dominated by the water vapor flux from the south, originated from the Arabian Sea. The anomalous water vapor flux is closely associated with the meridional teleconnection pattern around 50-80°E and the zonal teleconection pattern along the Asian westerly jet in summer. The meridional teleconnection connecting the Central Asia and the tropical Indian Ocean, and the zonal pattern resembles the ';Silk Road pattern'. The two wave trains connected in Central Asia. The anomalous pressure gradient force between negative height anomalies in Central Asia and the positive height anomalies in Arabian Sea/India and North Central China lead to anomalous ascending motion in TD and bring more water vapor from the Arabian Sea to pass over the Tibetan Plateau to fuel the precipitation development in the study region. These mechanisms lead to out-of-phase relationship between TD precipitation and Indian summer monsoon in the instrumental period and the past 2000 years. The vertically integrated summer water vapor flux (arrows) and 300hPa geopotential height (contour) regressed against the summer precipitation in TD during 1960-2010. Shadings (blue arrows) indicate the correlations between the geopotential height (water vapor flux) and the TD precipitation are significant at the 95% confidence level. The Guliya ice core is marked as star and the proxy monsoon records in Arabian Sea (box cores 723A and RC2730) are marked as triangles. Summer climatological water vapor budget and the correaltion between the water vapor budget and TD precipitaiton during 1960-2010. For climatological water vapor budget, the results shown are the total water vapor across the boundaries. Positive (negative) numbers indicate northward/eastward (southward/westward) water vapor flows. '*' and '**' indicate the correaltions between TD precipitation and water budget are significant at 95% and 99% confidence levels, respectively.

Mapping the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of N and O Isotopes in Precipitation Nitrate Across the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, E. M.; Kendall, C.; Harlin, K.; Butler, T.; Carlton, R.; Wankel, S.

2004-12-01

Atmospheric deposition of N is a universally important pathway by which ecosystems receive fixed, bioavailable N. Since the 1880s, atmospheric deposition of N has become increasingly important, as NOx emissions from fossil fuel combustion have steadily increased. In particular, the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic U.S. receive some of the highest rates of nitrate wet deposition in the country, causing a cascade of detrimental effects. In order to effectively mediate the impacts of nitrate deposition, it is critical to understand the dynamics among NOx sources, atmospheric chemical transformations and transport, and the characteristics of the nitrate that is ultimately deposited. To address this need, this research takes advantage of recent methodological improvements, coupled with national networks (NADP, AIRMoN) of archived precipitation, to characterize N and O isotopic composition of nitrate in precipitation across the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic U.S. We investigate the critical question of whether variations in \\delta15N and \\delta18O of nitrate wet deposition are mainly a function of atmospheric processes (e.g., seasonal variations in reaction pathways) or variable NOx source contributions (e.g., power plant emissions, vehicle exhaust). Spatial and seasonal variability of \\delta15N and \\delta18O is investigated using bimonthly archived samples from 2000. Furthermore, a high resolution record of daily precipitation from a single site is used to highlight within-season isotopic variability. Potential correlations between isotopic values and major NOx sources are explored using EPA datasets for monthly county-level emissions from two major NOx sources, electric generating units and on-road vehicles. Analysis of samples for \\Delta17O is in progress. A key concern regarding analysis of archived samples is nitrate preservation. We tested the stability of nitrate concentrations, and hence potential isotopic fractionations, by reanalyzing filtered, refrigerated, archived NADP samples with a range of nitrate and ammonium concentrations. We found highly significant correlations (R2=0.9995, p<0.001, n=28) between nitrate concentrations measured in 2000 and 2003, indicating that no major alterations had occurred. With regard to spatial patterns, preliminary isotopic analyses indicate that \\delta15N of precipitation nitrate varies considerably among states. Moreover, initial data corroborate previously reported seasonal trends in both \\delta15N and \\delta18O, with higher values in the colder months. Seasonal trends in \\delta15N are remarkably consistent, with up to an 8 \\permil difference between winter and summer months. \\delta18O values of nitrate are generally higher and have a smaller range than previously reported for precipitation, with values ranging from +60 to +90 \\permil. In addition, archived daily precipitation collected during 2000 from a single AIRMoN site give insight into the seasonal and within-season variability of \\delta15N and \\delta18O of precipitation nitrate. Back-trajectory analyses are used to examine the geographic source of air masses for individual events, and seasonal frontal patterns are discussed.

Increases in tropical rainfall driven by changes in frequency of organized deep convection.

PubMed

Tan, Jackson; Jakob, Christian; Rossow, William B; Tselioudis, George

2015-03-26

Increasing global precipitation has been associated with a warming climate resulting from a strengthening of the hydrological cycle. This increase, however, is not spatially uniform. Observations and models have found that changes in rainfall show patterns characterized as 'wet-gets-wetter' and 'warmer-gets-wetter'. These changes in precipitation are largely located in the tropics and hence are probably associated with convection. However, the underlying physical processes for the observed changes are not entirely clear. Here we show from observations that most of the regional increase in tropical precipitation is associated with changes in the frequency of organized deep convection. By assessing the contributions of various convective regimes to precipitation, we find that the spatial patterns of change in the frequency of organized deep convection are strongly correlated with observed change in rainfall, both positive and negative (correlation of 0.69), and can explain most of the patterns of increase in rainfall. In contrast, changes in less organized forms of deep convection or changes in precipitation within organized deep convection contribute less to changes in precipitation. Our results identify organized deep convection as the link between changes in rainfall and in the dynamics of the tropical atmosphere, thus providing a framework for obtaining a better understanding of changes in rainfall. Given the lack of a distinction between the different degrees of organization of convection in climate models, our results highlight an area of priority for future climate model development in order to achieve accurate rainfall projections in a warming climate.

The Relative Importance of Convective and Trade-wind Orographic Precipitation to Streamflow in the Luquillo Mountains, Eastern Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholl, M. A.; Shanley, J. B.; Occhi, M.; Scatena, F. N.

2012-12-01

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico (18.3° N) have abundant rainfall and stream discharge, but relatively little storage capacity. Therefore, the water supply is vulnerable to drought and water availability may be affected by projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics due to global warming. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, precipitation patterns were analyzed, and stable-isotope signatures of precipitation from different seasonal weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Stable isotope data include cloud water, rainfall, throughfall, streamflow, and groundwater from the Rio Mameyes and Rio Icacos/ Rio Blanco watersheds. Precipitation inputs have a wide range of stable isotope values, from fog/cloud water with δ2H and δ18O averaging +3.2‰, -1.74‰ respectively, to tropical storm rain with values as low as -154‰, -20.4‰. Spatial and temporal patterns of water isotopic values on this Caribbean island are different than higher latitude, continental watersheds. The data exhibit a 'reverse seasonality', with higher isotopic values in winter and lower values in summer; and stable isotope values of stream water do not decrease as expected with increasing altitude, because of cloud water input. Rain isotopic values vary predictably with local and mesoscale weather patterns and correlate strongly with cloud altitude. This correlation allows us to assign isotopic signatures to different sources of precipitation, and to investigate which climate patterns contribute to streamflow and groundwater recharge. At a measurement site at 615 m in the Luquillo Mountains, the average length of time between rain events was 15 h, and 45% of the rain events were <2 mm, reflecting the frequent small rain events of the trade-wind orographic rainfall weather pattern. Long-term average streamflow isotopic composition indicates a disproportionately large contribution of this trade-wind precipitation to streamflow, highlighting the importance of this climate pattern to the hydrology of the watersheds. Isotopic composition of groundwater suggests a slightly higher proportion of convective precipitation, but still smaller than in total rainfall. Hydrograph separation experiments yielded information on stormflow characteristics, with quantification of contributing sources determined from water isotopes and solute chemistry. The evidence that intense convective rain events run off and light trade-wind showers appear to contribute much of the baseflow indicates that the area may undergo a change in water supply if the trade-wind orographic precipitation dynamics in the Caribbean are affected by future climate change.

Modeled Carbon Cycle Responses to Altered Precipitation Amount and Interannual Variation in Desert Grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, G.; Wilcox, K.; Rudgers, J.; Litvak, M. E.; Newsome, S. D.; Collins, S. L.; Pockman, W.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Altered amounts and increased interannual variation of precipitation are likely to occur on a regional to global scale in the late 21st Century, yet understanding the interactive effects of these changes on ecosystem processes is limited. Here, we modeled the responses of the carbon cycle in a desert grassland at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (SEV) to changes in precipitation amount and interannual variation using the Terrestrial Ecosystem model. After model calibration, we generated 100-year hourly weather data by randomly repeated sampling of observed hourly weather data at SEV from 2000 to 2012. We then modified this 100-year time series to create six climate scenarios: (1) ambient (AMB); (2) increased air temperature by 4.3 °C in summer and 3.3 °C in other seasons for each year (IT); (3) 20% decreased precipitation amount for every event (DP); (4) combined IT and DP (DPT); (5) 100% increased precipitation interannual variance without changing the mean (IV); (6) combined IT and IV (IVT). Our results showed IV significantly increased the sensitivity of NPP to continuous extreme drought. In addition, the increased number of extreme drought years caused by IV exacerbated the negative influence of individual extreme drought events on soil organic carbon (SOC). The IV climate scenario showed the highest interannual variance of carbon fluxes and SOC, but increased temperature reduced this variance. DP and IV decreased NPP by 10.7% and 18.3% compared with AMB, respectively, and the negative impact of IV on NPP was more severe than that of DP. Our results indicate that the increased interannual variation in precipitation could have more severe impacts on terrestrial ecosystems that exceed the decrease in predicted average annual precipitation.

Simulations show decreasing carbon stocks and potential for carbon emissions in Rocky Mountain forests over the next century.

PubMed

Boisvenue, Céline; Running, Steven W

2010-07-01

Climate change has altered the environment in which forests grow, and climate change models predict more severe alterations to come. Forests have already responded to these changes, and the future temperature and precipitation scenarios are of foremost concern, especially in the mountainous western United States, where forests occur in the dry environments that interface with grasslands. The objective of this study was to understand the trade-offs between temperature and water controls on these forested sites in the context of available climate projections. Three temperature and precipitation scenarios from IPCC AR4 AOGCMs ranging in precipitation levels were input to the process model Biome-BGC for key forested sites in the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains. Despite the omission of natural and human-caused disturbances in our simulations, our results show consequential effects from these conservative future temperature and precipitation scenarios. According to these projections, if future precipitation and temperatures are similar to or drier than the dry scenario depicted here, high-elevation forests on both the drier and wetter sites, which have in the absence of disturbance accumulated carbon, will reduce their carbon accumulation. Under the marginally drier climate projections, most forests became carbon sources by the end of the simulation horizon (2089). Under all three scenarios, growing season lengthened, the number of days with snow on the ground decreased, peak snow occurred earlier, and water stress increased through the projection horizon (1950-2089) for all sites, which represent the temperature and precipitation spectrum of forests in this region. The quantity, form, and timing of precipitation ultimately drive the carbon accumulation trajectory of forests in this region.

The Controversial Role of Inter-diffusion in Glass Alteration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gin, Stephane; Neill, Lindsay; Fournier, M.

2016-11-15

Current kinetic models for nuclear waste glasses (e.g. GM2001, GRAAL) are based on a set of mechanisms that have been generally agreed upon within the international waste glass community. These mechanisms are: hydration of the glass, ion exchange reactions (the two processes are referred as inter-diffusion), hydrolysis of the silicate network, and condensation/precipitation of partly or completely hydrolyzed species that produces a porous and amorphous layer and crystalline phases on surface of the altered glass. Recently, a new idea with origins in the mineral dissolution community has been proposed that excludes inter-diffusion process as a potential rate-limiting mechanism. To understandmore » how the so-called interfacial dissolution/precipitation model can change the current understanding of glass behavior, a key experiment used to account for this model was replicated to further revisit the interpretation. This experiment was performed at 50°C, with SON68 glass, in static mode, deionized water and S/V ratio of 10 m-1 for 6 months. It turn out that glass alters in an intermediate kinetic regime between the forward and the residual rate. According to previous and new solid characterizations, it is concluded that neither a simple inter-diffusion model nor the interfacial dissolution precipitation model can account for the observed elemental profiles within the alteration layer. More generally, far and close-to-saturation conditions must be distinguished and literature provides evidences that inter-diffusion takes place in slightly acidic conditions and far from saturation. However, closer to saturation, when a sufficiently dense layer is formed, a new approach is proposed requiring a full description of chemical reactions taking place within the alteration layer and involving water molecules as it is thought that water accessibility to the pristine glass is the rate-limiting process.« less

Verifying Diurnal Variations of Global Precipitation in Three New Global Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.; Xie, P.; Sun, F.; Joyce, R.

2013-12-01

Diurnal variations of global precipitation and their representation in three sets of new generation global reanalyses are examined using the reprocessed and bias corrected CMORPH satellite precipitation estimates. The CMORPH satellite precipitation estimates are produced on an 8km by 8km grid over the globe (60oS-60oN) and in a 30-min interval covering a 15-year period from 1998 to the present through combining information from IR and PMW observations from all available satellites. Bias correction is performed for the raw CMORPH precipitation estimates through calibration against an gauge-based analysis over land and against the pentad GPCP analysis over ocean. The reanalyses examined here include the NCEP CFS reanalysis (CFSR), NASA/GSFC MERRA, and ECMWF Interim. The bias-corrected CMORPH is integrated from its original resolution to the reanalyses grid systems to facilitate the verification. First, quantitative agreements between the reanalysis precipitation fields and the CMORPH satellite observation are examined over the global domain. Precipitation structures associated with the large-scale topography are well reproduced when compared against the observation. Evolution of precipitation patterns with the development of transient weather systems are captured by the CFSR and two other reanalyses. The reanalyses tend to generate precipitation fields with wider raining areas and reduced intensity for heavy rainfall cases compared the observations over both land and ocean. Seasonal migration of global precipitation depicted in the 15-year CMORPH satellite observations is very well captured by the three sets of new reanalyses, although magnitude of precipitation is larger, especially in the CFSR, compared to that in the observations. In general, the three sets of new reanalyses exhibit substantial improvements in their performance to represent global precipitation distributions and variations. In particular, the new reanalyses produced precipitation variations of fine time/space scales collated in the observations. The diurnal cycle of the precipitation is reasonably well reproduced by the reanalyses over many global oceanic and land areas. Diurnal amplitude of the reanalyses precipitation, defined as the standard deviation of the 24 hourly mean values, is smaller than that in the observations over most of the oceanic regions, attributable largely to the continuous weak precipitation throughout the diurnal cycle in all of the three reanalyses. Over ocean, the pattern of diurnal variations of precipitation in the reanalyses is quite similar to that in the observations, with the timing of maximum precipitation shifted by1-3 hours. Over land especially over Africa, the reanalyses tend to produce maximum precipitation around noon, much earlier than that in the observations. Particularly noticeable is the diurnal cycle of warm season precipitation over CONUS in association with the eastward propagation of meso-scale systems distinct in the observations. None of the three new reanalyses are capable of detecting this pattern of diurnal variations. A comprehensive description and diagnostic discussions will be given at the AGU meeting.

Alterations of thorium oxalate morphology by changing elementary precipitation conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrpekl, V.; Beliš, M.; Wangle, T.; Vleugels, J.; Verwerft, M.

2017-09-01

Oxalates of actinide elements are widely used in research and industry mainly due to their low solubility in aqueous solution and easy conversion to oxide. Although thorium oxide is worldwide mostly produced by the oxalate precipitation and conversion route, the powder morphology obtained through this process is known to inhibit the packing and sintering step of the pellet production. The presented work investigates the effects of oxalate precipitation conditions on the final powder morphology. Among the precipitation conditions considered are: pH of the thorium feed solution, concentration, temperature and the order of addition (thorium solution in oxalic acid solution and vice versa) known as reverse/direct strike. Herein, we show that the morphology of the final oxalate depends significantly on the above mentioned precipitation parameters.

Large‐scale heavy precipitation over central Europe and the role of atmospheric cyclone track types

PubMed Central

Lexer, Annemarie; Homann, Markus; Blöschl, Günter

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Precipitation patterns over Europe are largely controlled by atmospheric cyclones embedded in the general circulation of the mid‐latitudes. This study evaluates the climatologic features of precipitation for selected regions in central Europe with respect to cyclone track types for 1959–2015, focusing on large‐scale heavy precipitation. The analysis suggests that each of the cyclone track types is connected to a specific pattern of the upper level atmospheric flow, usually characterized by a major trough located over Europe. A dominant upper level cut‐off low (COL) is found over Europe for strong continental (CON) and van Bebber's type (Vb) cyclones which move from the east and southeast into central Europe. Strong Vb cyclones revealed the longest residence times, mainly due to circular propagation paths. The central European cyclone precipitation climate can largely be explained by seasonal track‐type frequency and cyclone intensity; however, additional factors are needed to explain a secondary precipitation maximum in early autumn. The occurrence of large precipitation totals for track events is strongly related to the track type and the region, with the highest value of 45% of all Vb cyclones connected to heavy precipitation in summer over the Czech Republic and eastern Austria. In western Germany, Atlantic winter cyclones are most relevant for heavy precipitation. The analysis of the top 50 precipitation events revealed an outstanding heavy precipitation period from 2006 to 2011 in the Czech Republic, but no gradual long‐term change. The findings help better understand spatio‐temporal variability of heavy precipitation in the context of floods and may be used for evaluating climate models.

Processes and mechanisms of persistent extreme precipitation events in East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang

2014-11-01

This study mainly presents recent progresses on persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) in East China. A definition focusing both persistence and extremity of daily precipitation is firstly proposed. An identification method for quasi-stationary regional PEPEs is then designed. By utilizing the identified PEPEs in East China, typical circulation configurations from the lower to the upper troposphere are confirmed, followed by investigations of synoptic precursors for key components with lead time of 1-2 weeks. Two characteristic circulation patterns responsible for PEPEs in East China are identified: a double blocking high type and a single blocking high type. They may account for occurrence of nearly 80% PEPEs during last 60 years. For double blocking high type, about two weeks prior to PEPEs, two blockings developed and progressed towards the Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk, respectively. A northwestward progressive anomalous anticyclone conveying abundant moisture and eastward-extended South Asia High favoring divergence can be detected about one week in advance. A dominant summertime teleconnection over East Asia, East Asia/ Pacific (EAP) pattern, is deemed as another typical regime inducing PEPEs in the East China. Key elements of the EAP pattern initiated westward movement since one week prior to PEPEs. Eastward energy dispersion and poleward energy dispersion contributed to early development and subsequent maintenance of this teleconnection pattern, respectively. These typical circulation patterns and significant precursors may offer local forecasters some useful clues in identifying and predicting such high-impact precipitation events about 1-2 weeks in advance.

Comprehensive evaluation of multisatellite precipitation estimates over India using gridded rainfall data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunilkumar, K.; Narayana Rao, T.; Saikranthi, K.; Purnachandra Rao, M.

2015-09-01

This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of five widely used multisatellite precipitation estimates (MPEs) against 1° × 1° gridded rain gauge data set as ground truth over India. One decade observations are used to assess the performance of various MPEs (Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-South Asia data set, CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project). All MPEs have high detection skills of rain with larger probability of detection (POD) and smaller "missing" values. However, the detection sensitivity differs from one product (and also one region) to the other. While the CMORPH has the lowest sensitivity of detecting rain, CPC shows highest sensitivity and often overdetects rain, as evidenced by large POD and false alarm ratio and small missing values. All MPEs show higher rain sensitivity over eastern India than western India. These differential sensitivities are found to alter the biases in rain amount differently. All MPEs show similar spatial patterns of seasonal rain bias and root-mean-square error, but their spatial variability across India is complex and pronounced. The MPEs overestimate the rainfall over the dry regions (northwest and southeast India) and severely underestimate over mountainous regions (west coast and northeast India), whereas the bias is relatively small over the core monsoon zone. Higher occurrence of virga rain due to subcloud evaporation and possible missing of small-scale convective events by gauges over the dry regions are the main reasons for the observed overestimation of rain by MPEs. The decomposed components of total bias show that the major part of overestimation is due to false precipitation. The severe underestimation of rain along the west coast is attributed to the predominant occurrence of shallow rain and underestimation of moderate to heavy rain by MPEs. The decomposed components suggest that the missed precipitation and hit bias are the leading error sources for the total bias along the west coast. All evaluation metrics are found to be nearly equal in two contrasting monsoon seasons (southwest and northeast), indicating that the performance of MPEs does not change with the season, at least over southeast India. Among various MPEs, the performance of TMPA is found to be better than others, as it reproduced most of the spatial variability exhibited by the reference.

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress-Insights from a System Dynamics-Individual-Based Hybrid Model.

PubMed

Vincenot, Christian E; Carteni, Fabrizio; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Rietkerk, Max; Giannino, Francesco

2016-01-01

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)-Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed.

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress—Insights from a System Dynamics—Individual-Based Hybrid Model

PubMed Central

Vincenot, Christian E.; Carteni, Fabrizio; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Rietkerk, Max; Giannino, Francesco

2016-01-01

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)—Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed. PMID:27252707

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

Effects of anaerobiosis on in vivo protein synthesis in the roots of a marine angiosperm zostera marina

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, R.D.; Alberte, R.S.

1989-04-01

The roots of the temperate seagrass Zostera marina undergo daily periods of anaerobiosis at night. These diurnal periods of anoxia alter many metabolic processes in the roots including carbon and nitrogen metabolism, amino acid synthesis, and synthesis and levels of ATP, ADP and AMP. To further characterize the effects of anaerobiosis, we determined in vivo rates of protein synthesis by measuring the relative incorporation of {sup 35}S-MET in TCA precipitated protein samples. Results from these studies show that in vivo protein synthesis decreases continuously during 12 h of anaerobiosis and correlates with changes in ATP levels under similar conditions. Furthermore,more » polypeptide patterns obtained by SDS-PAGE and 2D-SDSPAGE indicate that anaerobiosis leads to differential protein synthesis in the roots.« less

Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnone, E.; Pumo, D.; Viola, F.; Noto, L. V.; La Loggia, G.

2013-07-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall duration. Conversely, precipitation events of long durations have exhibited a decreased trend. Increase in short-duration precipitation has been observed especially in stations located along the coastline; however, no clear and well-defined spatial pattern has been outlined by the results. Outcomes of analysis for daily rainfall properties have showed that heavy-torrential precipitation events tend to be more frequent at regional scale, while light rainfall events exhibited a negative trend at some sites. Values of total annual precipitation events confirmed a significant negative trend, mainly due to the reduction during the winter season.

MJO influence on ENSO effects in precipitation and temperature over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, M. H.; Bombardi, R. J.; Ambrizzi, T.

2013-12-01

Researches on the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over precipitation and temperature, such as drought, flood, and anomalous high or cold temperatures, have great importance because of the impact of ENSO on the environment, society, and economy. Several studies have reported the influences of ENSO over South American precipitation and temperature climatological patterns, such as drier than normal conditions over northeast Brazil during the warm phase (El Niño) and wetter than normal conditions over northeast Brazil in the cold phase (La Niña). However, some recent studies focusing on the Northern Hemisphere have indicated that the basic response of ENSO is dependent on the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is characterized by the eastward propagation of the convection from Indian to Central Pacific Ocean and is related to variations in the position and intensity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The present work investigates the combined response of the phases of these two distinct phenomena, ENSO and MJO, over South America. Our goal is to explore the relative importance of the MJO to precipitation and temperature anomalies during ENSO events. MJO events were defined using the MJO index created by Jones and Carvalho (2012) based on empirical orthogonal functions analysis. ENSO phases were defined according to the Oceanic Niño Index provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A composite analysis with each combination of the phases of ENSO and MJO was performed to obtain the mean patterns of temperature and precipitation over South America for the months of November to March (austral summer). The results showed that the precipitation and temperature anomalies patterns observed during ENSO events, without the concurrent occurrence of the MJO, can be strengthened or weakened during events where ENSO and MJO occur simultaneously. Moreover, the effect on the anomalies patterns in these events depends on the MJO phase. During El Niño events, MJO phases 1 and 5 seem to intensify the anomaly patterns over northwest and northeast of South America, respectively. In addition, during the MJO phase 3, these patterns are weaker over northern and stronger over southern South America. During Niña events, MJO phases 3 and 5 presented more precipitation in the region of the SACZ. These results suggest that the influence of ENSO over South America depends on the MJO phase and on the position of convection over the Tropical Indian/Pacific Oceans associated with this phase, which triggers eastward propagating wave trains.

Influence of zeolite precipitation on borosilicate glass alteration under hyperalkaline conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercado-Depierre, S.; Fournier, M.; Gin, S.; Angeli, F.

2017-08-01

This study enables a better understanding of how nucleation-growth of zeolites affects glass dissolution kinetics in hyperalkaline solutions characteristic of cement waters. A 20-oxide borosilicate glass, an inactive surrogate of a typical intermediate level waste glass, was altered in static mode at 50 °C in a hyperalkaline solution rich in Na+, K+ and Ca2+ and at an initial pH50°C of 12.6. Experiments were performed at four glass-surface-area-to-solution-volume (S/V) ratios to investigate various reaction progresses. Two types of glass alteration kinetics were obtained: (i) at low S/V, a sharp alteration resumption occurred after a rate drop regime, (ii) at high S/V, a high dissolution rate was maintained throughout the test duration with a slight progressive slow-down. In all the experiments, zeolites precipitated but the time taken to form stable zeolite nuclei varied dramatically depending on the S/V. Resulting changes in pH affected zeolite composition, morphology, solubility and growth rate. A change in a critical parameter such as S/V affected all the processes controlling glass dissolution.

Chemistry and Mineralogy of Antarctica Dry Valley Soils: Implications for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quinn, J. E.; Golden, D. C.; Graff, T. G.; Ming, D. W.; Morris, R. V.; Douglas, S.; Kounaves, S. P.; McKay, C. P.; Tamppari, L, K.; Smith, P. H.;

Interannual variability of the frontal activity in the Southern Hemisphere: relationship with atmospheric circulation and precipitation over southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blázquez, Josefina; Solman, Silvina A.

2017-04-01

The interannual variability of the frontal activity over the western Southern Hemisphere and its linkage with the variability of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over southern South America is studied. The analysis is focused on the austral winter and spring seasons. The frontal activity is represented by an index defined as the product between the horizontal gradient of temperature and the relative vorticity at 850 hPa (FI) and is computed from the ERA Interim and NCEP2 reanalysis. For the two seasons the main mode of variability of FI, as depicted by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function, presents centres of action located in the southern part of the western Southern Hemisphere. This pattern is present in the two reanalysis datasets. The correlation coefficients between the principal component of the leading mode of FI and the two main modes of the 500 hPa geopotential height indicate that both the ENSO-mode and the SAM modulate the leading pattern of FI in winter while during the spring season the ENSO-mode controls the FI variability. The variability of the FI has a robust influence on the interannual variability of precipitation over southern South America and adjacent oceans. Over the continent, it was found that the pattern of precipitation anomalies associated with the variability of the FI depicts significant signals over southeastern South America (SESA), centre and south of Chile for winter and over SESA and southeastern Brazil for spring and agrees with the pattern of the leading mode of precipitation variability over southern South America.

Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

2017-04-01

Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of an integrated climate adaptation strategy.

Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline

2017-12-01

This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

Seawater Mg/Ca controls polymorph mineralogy of microbial CaCO3: a potential proxy for calcite-aragonite seas in Precambrian time.

PubMed

Ries, J B; Anderson, M A; Hill, R T

2008-03-01

A previously published hydrothermal brine-river water mixing model driven by ocean crust production suggests that the molar Mg/Ca ratio of seawater (mMg/Ca(sw)) has varied significantly (approximately 1.0-5.2) over Precambrian time, resulting in six intervals of aragonite-favouring seas (mMg/Ca(sw) > 2) and five intervals of calcite-favouring seas (mMg/Ca(sw) < 2) since the Late Archaean. To evaluate the viability of microbial carbonates as mineralogical proxy for Precambrian calcite-aragonite seas, calcifying microbial marine biofilms were cultured in experimental seawaters formulated over the range of Mg/Ca ratios believed to have characterized Precambrian seawater. Biofilms cultured in experimental aragonite seawater (mMg/Ca(sw) = 5.2) precipitated primarily aragonite with lesser amounts of high-Mg calcite (mMg/Ca(calcite) = 0.16), while biofilms cultured in experimental calcite seawater (mMg/Ca(sw) = 1.5) precipitated exclusively lower magnesian calcite (mMg/Ca(calcite) = 0.06). Furthermore, Mg/Ca(calcite )varied proportionally with Mg/Ca(sw). This nearly abiotic mineralogical response of the biofilm CaCO3 to altered Mg/Ca(sw) is consistent with the assertion that biofilm calcification proceeds more through the elevation of , via metabolic removal of CO2 and/or H+, than through the elevation of Ca2+, which would alter the Mg/Ca ratio of the biofilm's calcifying fluid causing its pattern of CaCO3 polymorph precipitation (aragonite vs. calcite; Mg-incorporation in calcite) to deviate from that of abiotic calcification. If previous assertions are correct that the physicochemical properties of Precambrian seawater were such that Mg/Ca(sw) was the primary variable influencing CaCO3 polymorph mineralogy, then the observed response of the biofilms' CaCO3 polymorph mineralogy to variations in Mg/Ca(sw), combined with the ubiquity of such microbial carbonates in Precambrian strata, suggests that the original polymorph mineralogy and Mg/Ca(calcite )of well-preserved microbial carbonates may be an archive of calcite-aragonite seas throughout Precambrian time. These results invite a systematic evaluation of microbial carbonate primary mineralogy to empirically constrain Precambrian seawater Mg/Ca.

Present-day constraint for tropical Pacific precipitation changes due to global warming in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong

2016-11-01

The sensitivity of the precipitation responses to greenhouse warming can depend on the present-day climate. In this study, a robust linkage between the present-day precipitation climatology and precipitation change owing to global warming is examined in inter-model space. A model with drier climatology in the present-day simulation tends to simulate an increase in climatological precipitation owing to global warming. Moreover, the horizontal gradient of the present-day precipitation climatology plays an important role in determining the precipitation changes. On the basis of these robust relationships, future precipitation changes are calibrated by removing the impact of the present-day precipitation bias in the climate models. To validate this result, the perfect model approach is adapted, which treats a particular model's precipitation change as an observed change. The results suggest that the precipitation change pattern can be generally improved by applying the present statistical approach.

Precipitation of calcium, magnesium, strontium and barium in tissues of four Acacia species (Leguminosae: Mimosoideae).

PubMed

He, Honghua; Bleby, Timothy M; Veneklaas, Erik J; Lambers, Hans; Kuo, John

2012-01-01

Precipitation of calcium in plants is common. There are abundant studies on the uptake and content of magnesium, strontium and barium, which have similar chemical properties to calcium, in comparison with those of calcium in plants, but studies on co-precipitation of these elements with calcium in plants are rare. In this study, we compared morphologies, distributional patterns, and elemental compositions of crystals in tissues of four Acacia species grown in the field as well as in the glasshouse. A comparison was also made of field-grown plants and glasshouse-grown plants, and of phyllodes of different ages for each species. Crystals of various morphologies and distributional patterns were observed in the four Acacia species studied. Magnesium, strontium and barium were precipitated together with calcium, mainly in phyllodes of the four Acacia species, and sometimes in branchlets and primary roots. These elements were most likely precipitated in forms of oxalate and sulfate in various tissues, including epidermis, mesophyll, parenchyma, sclerenchyma (fibre cells), pith, pith ray and cortex. In most cases, precipitation of calcium, magnesium, strontium and barium was biologically induced, and elements precipitated differed between soil types, plant species, and tissues within an individual plant; the precipitation was also related to tissue age. Formation of crystals containing these elements might play a role in regulating and detoxifying these elements in plants, and protecting the plants against herbivory.

Precipitation of Calcium, Magnesium, Strontium and Barium in Tissues of Four Acacia Species (Leguminosae: Mimosoideae)

PubMed Central

He, Honghua; Bleby, Timothy M.; Veneklaas, Erik J.; Lambers, Hans; Kuo, John

2012-01-01

Precipitation of calcium in plants is common. There are abundant studies on the uptake and content of magnesium, strontium and barium, which have similar chemical properties to calcium, in comparison with those of calcium in plants, but studies on co-precipitation of these elements with calcium in plants are rare. In this study, we compared morphologies, distributional patterns, and elemental compositions of crystals in tissues of four Acacia species grown in the field as well as in the glasshouse. A comparison was also made of field-grown plants and glasshouse-grown plants, and of phyllodes of different ages for each species. Crystals of various morphologies and distributional patterns were observed in the four Acacia species studied. Magnesium, strontium and barium were precipitated together with calcium, mainly in phyllodes of the four Acacia species, and sometimes in branchlets and primary roots. These elements were most likely precipitated in forms of oxalate and sulfate in various tissues, including epidermis, mesophyll, parenchyma, sclerenchyma (fibre cells), pith, pith ray and cortex. In most cases, precipitation of calcium, magnesium, strontium and barium was biologically induced, and elements precipitated differed between soil types, plant species, and tissues within an individual plant; the precipitation was also related to tissue age. Formation of crystals containing these elements might play a role in regulating and detoxifying these elements in plants, and protecting the plants against herbivory. PMID:22848528

Intraseasonal variability in subtropical South America as depicted by precipitation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, P. L. M.; Vera, C. S.; Liebmann, B.; Kiladis, G.

2008-06-01

Daily precipitation data from three stations in subtropical Argentina are used to describe intraseasonal variability (20 90 days) during the austral summer. This variability is compared locally and regionally with that present in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, in order to evaluate the performance of this variable as a proxy for convection in the region. The influence of the intraseasonal activity of the South American Seesaw (SASS) leading convection pattern on precipitation is also explored. Results show that intraseasonal variability explains a significant portion of summer precipitation variance, with a clear maximum in the vicinity of the SASS subtropical center. Correlation analysis reveals that OLR can explain only a small portion of daily precipitation variability, implying that it does not constitute a proper proxy for precipitation on daily timescales. On intraseasonal timescales, though, OLR is able to reproduce the main features of precipitation variability. The dynamical conditions that promote the development of intraseasonal variability in the region are further analyzed for selected summers. Seasons associated with a strong intraseasonal signal in precipitation variability show distinctive wet/dry intraseasonal periods in daily raw data, and are associated with a well defined SASS-like spatial pattern of convection. During these summers, strong large-scale forcing (such as warm El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and/or tropical intraseasonal convective activity), and Rossby-wave-like circulation anomalies extending across the Pacific Ocean, are also observed.

Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the 20th century NAO-winter precipitation relationship in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comas-Bru, Laia; McDermott, Frank

2013-04-01

Much of the 20th century multi-decadal variability in the NAO-winter precipitation relationship over the N. Atlantic / European sector can be ascribed to the combined effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and either the East Atlantic pattern (EA) or the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). The NAO, EA and SCA indices employed here are defined as the three leading vectors of the cross-correlation matrix calculated from monthly sea-level pressure anomalies for 138 complete winters from the 20CRv2 dataset (Compo et al., 2011). Winter precipitation data over Europe for the entire 20th century is derived from the high resolution CRU-TS3.1 climate dataset (Mitchell and Jones, 2005). Here we document for the first time, that different NAO/EA and NAO/SCA combinations systematically influence winter precipitation conditions in Europe as a consequence of NAO dipole migrations. We find that the zero-correlated line of the NAO-winter precipitation relationship migrates southwards when the EA is in the opposite phase to the NAO. This can be related to a south-westwards migration of the NAO dipole under these conditions, as shown by teleconnectivity maps. Similarly, a clockwise movement of the NAO-winter climate correlated areas occurs when the phase of the SCA is opposite to that of the NAO, reflecting a clockwise movement of the NAO dipole under these conditions. An important implication of these migrations is that they influence the spatial and temporal stationarity of climate-NAO relationships. As a result, the link between winter precipitation patterns and the NAO is not straightforward in some regions such as the southern UK, Ireland and France. For instance, much of the inter-annual variability in the N-S winter precipitation gradient in the UK, originally attributed to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of the NAO, reflects the migration of the NAO dipole, linked to linear combinations of the NAO and the EA. Our results indicate that when the N-S winter precipitation gradient is accentuated by the occurrence of a positive EA during positive NAO winters, drier conditions than normal are found in the southern UK. This is consistent, for example, with the severe winter drought of 1976, when computed NAO and EA indices were both positive (0.97 and 1.87, respectively), illustrating the modulating effect of NAO/EA combinations on winter precipitation patterns in the southern UK. References: Compo GP et al. 2011. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (654), 1-28. Mitchell TD, Jones PD. 2005. An improved method for constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 693-712.

The Effect of Spatial Aggregation on the Skill of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xiaofeng; Barnston, Anthony G.; Ward, M. Neil

2003-09-01

Skillful forecasts of 3-month total precipitation would be useful for decision making in hydrology, agriculture, public health, and other sectors of society. However, with some exceptions, the skill of seasonal precipitation outlooks is modest, leaving uncertainty in how to best make use of them. Seasonal precipitation forecast skill is generally lower than the skill of forecasts for temperature or atmospheric circulation patterns for the same location and time. This is attributable to the smaller-scale, more complex physics of precipitation, resulting in its `noisier' and hence less predictable character. By contrast, associated temperature and circulation patterns are larger scale, in keeping with the anomalous boundary conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature) that often give rise to them.Using two atmospheric general circulation models forced by observed sea surface temperature anomalies, the skill of simulations of total seasonal precipitation is examined as a function of the size of the spatial domain over which the precipitation total is averaged. Results show that spatial aggregation increases skill and, by the skill measures used here, does so to a greater extent for precipitation than for temperature. Corroborative results are presented in an observational framework at smaller spatial scales for gauge rainfalls in northeast Brazil.The findings imply that when seasonal forecasts for precipitation are issued, the accompanying guidance on their expected skills should explicitly specify to which spatial aggregation level the skills apply. Information about skills expected at other levels of aggregation should be supplied for users who may work at such levels.

Assessing hydrological changes in a regulated river system over the last 90 years in Rimac Basin (Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vega-Jácome, Fiorella; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo Sven; Felipe-Obando, Oscar Gustavo

2018-04-01

Hydrological changes were assessed considering possible changes in precipitation and regulation or hydraulic diversion projects developed in the basin since 1960s in terms of improving water supply of the Rimac River, which is the main source of fresh water of Peru's capital. To achieve this objective, a trend analysis of precipitation and flow series was assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. Subsequently, the Eco-flow and Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methods were applied for the characterization and quantification of the hydrological change in the basin, considering for the analysis, a natural period (1920-1960) and an altered period (1961-2012). Under this focus, daily hydrologic information of the "Chosica R-2" station (from 1920 to 2013) and monthly rainfall information related to 14 stations (from 1964 to 2013) were collected. The results show variations in the flow seasonality of the altered period in relation to the natural period and a significant trend to increase (decrease) minimum flows (maximum flows) during the analyzed period. The Eco-flow assessment shows a predominance of Eco-deficit from December to May (rainy season), strongly related to negative anomalies of precipitation. In addition, a predominance of Eco-surplus was found from June to November (dry season) with a behavior opposite to precipitation, attributed to the regulations and diversion in the basin during that period. In terms of magnitude, the IHA assessment identified an increase of 51% in the average flows during the dry season and a reduction of 10% in the average flows during the rainy season (except December and May). Furthermore, the minimum flows increased by 35% with shorter duration and frequency, and maximum flows decreased by 29% with more frequency but less duration. Although there are benefits of regulation and diversion for developing anthropic activities, the fact that hydrologic alterations may result in significant modifications in the Rimac River ecosystem must be taken into account.

The roles of organic matter in the formation of uranium deposits in sedimentary rocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spirakis, C.S.

1996-01-01

Because reduced uranium species have a much smaller solubility than oxidized uranium species and because of the strong association of organic matter (a powerful reductant) with many uranium ores, reduction has long been considered to be the precipitation mechanism for many types of uranium deposits. Organic matter may also be involved in the alterations in and around tabular uranium deposits, including dolomite precipitation, formation of silicified layers, iron-titanium oxide destruction, dissolution of quartz grains, and precipitation of clay minerals. The diagenetic processes that produced these alterations also consumed organic matter. Consequently, those tabular deposits that underwent the more advanced stages of diagenesis, including methanogenesis and organic acid generation, display the greatest range of alterations and contain the smallest amount of organic matter. Because of certain similarities between tabular uranium deposits and Precambrian unconformity-related deposits, some of the same processes might have been involved in the genesis of Precambrian unconformity-related deposits. Hydrologic studies place important constraints on genetic models of various types of uranium deposits. In roll-front deposits, oxidized waters carried uranium to reductants (organic matter and pyrite derived from sulfate reduction by organic matter). After these reductants were oxidized at any point in the host sandstone, uranium minerals were reoxidized and transported further down the flow path to react with additional reductants. In this manner, the uranium ore migrated through the sandstone at a rate slower than the mineralizing ground water. In the case of tabular uranium deposits, the recharge of surface water into the ground water during flooding of lakes carried soluble humic material to the water table or to an interface where humate precipitated in tabular layers. These humate layers then established the chemical conditions for mineralization and related alterations. In the case of Precambrian unconformity-related deposits, free thermal convection in the thick sandstones overlying the basement rocks carried uranium to concentrations of organic matter in the basement rocks.

Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.

2007-10-01

Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.

Relationship between Trends in Land Precipitation and Tropical SST Gradient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Chul Eddy; Ramanathan, V.

2007-01-01

In this study, we examined global zonal/annual mean precipitation trends. Land precipitation trend from 1951 to 2002 shows widespread drying between 10 S to 20 N but the trend from 1977 to 2002 shows partial recovery. Based on general circulation model sensitivity studies, we suggested that these features are driven largely by the meridional SST gradient trend in the tropics. Our idealized CCM3 experiments substantiated that land precipitation is more sensitive to meridional SST gradient than to an overall tropical warming. Various simulations produced for the IPCC 4th assessment report demonstrate that increasing CO2 increases SST in the entire tropics non-uniformly and increases land precipitation only in certain latitude belts, again pointing to the importance of SST gradient change. Temporally varying aerosols in the IPCC simulations alter meridional SST gradient and land precipitation substantially. Anthropogenic aerosol direct solar forcing without its effects on SST is shown by the CCM3 to have weak but non-negligible influence on land precipitation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew; Cullinan, Valerie

Mojave Desert ecosystem processes are dependent upon the amount and seasonality of precipitation. Multi-decadal periods of drought or above-average rainfall affect landscape vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. The seasonality of precipitation events can also affect the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. To develop an understanding of precipitation regimes and fire patterns we used monthly average precipitation data and GIS data representing burned areas from 1971-2010. We applied a K-means cluster analysis to the monthly precipitation data identifying three distinct precipitation seasons; winter (October – March), spring (April-June) and summer (July-September) and four discrete precipitationmore » regimes within the Mojave ecoregion.« less

FORAST Database: Forest Responses to Anthropogenic Stress (FORAST)

DOE Data Explorer

McLaughlin, S. B. [ESD, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Downing, D. J. [ESD, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Blasing, T. J. [ESD, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Jackson, B. L. [ESD, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Pack, D. J. [ESD, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Duvick, D. N. [ESD, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Mann, L. K. [ESD, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Doyle, T. W. [ESD, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

1995-01-01

The Forest Responses to Anthropogenic Stress (FORAST) project was designed to determine whether evidence of alterations of long-term growth patterns of several species of eastern forest trees was apparent in tree-ring chronologies from within the region and to identify environmental variables that were temporally or spatially correlated with any observed changes. The project was supported principally by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with additional support from the National Park Service. The FORAST project was initiated in 1982 as exploratory research to document patterns of radial growth of forest trees during the previous 50 or more years within 15 states in the northeastern United States. Radial growth measurements from more than 7,000 trees are provided along with data on a variety of measured and calculated indices of stand characteristics (basal area, density, and competitive indices); climate (temperature, precipitation, and drought); and anthropogenic pollutants (state and regional emissions of SO2 and NOX, ozone monitoring data, and frequency of atmospheric-stagnation episodes and atmospheric haze). These data were compiled into a single database to facilitate exploratory analysis of tree growth patterns and responses to local and regional environmental conditions. The project objectives, experimental design, and documentation of procedures for assessing data collected in the 3-year research project are reported in McLaughlin et al. (1986).

Deposition of talc - kerolite-smectite - smectite at seafloor hydrothermal vent fields: Evidence from mineralogical, geochemical and oxygen isotope studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dekov, V.M.; Cuadros, J.; Shanks, Wayne C.; Koski, R.A.

2008-01-01

Talc, kerolite-smectite, smectite, chlorite-smectite and chlorite samples from sediments, chimneys and massive sulfides from six seafloor hydrothermal areas have been analyzed for mineralogy, chemistry and oxygen isotopes. Samples are from both peridotite- and basalt-hosted hydrothermal systems, and basaltic systems include sediment-free and sediment-covered sites. Mg-phyllosilicates at seafloor hydrothermal sites have previously been described as talc, stevensite or saponite. In contrast, new data show tri-octahedral Mg-phyllosilicates ranging from pure talc and Fe-rich talc, through kerolite-rich kerolite-smectite to smectite-rich kerolite-smectite and tri-octahedral smectite. The most common occurrence is mixed-layer kerolite-smectite, which shows an almost complete interstratification series with 5 to 85% smectitic layers. The smectite interstratified with kerolite is mostly tri-octahedral. The degree of crystal perfection of the clay sequence decreases generally from talc to kerolite-smectite with lower crystalline perfection as the proportion of smectite layers in kerolite-smectite increases. Our studies do not support any dependence of the precipitated minerals on the type/subtype of hydrothermal system. Oxygen isotope geothermometry demonstrates that talc and kerolite-smectite precipitated in chimneys, massive sulfide mounds, at the sediment surface and in open cracks in the sediment near seafloor are high-temperature (> 250????C) phases that are most probably the result of focused fluid discharge. The other end-member of this tri-octahedral Mg-phyllosilicate sequence, smectite, is a moderate-temperature (200-250????C) phase forming deep within the sediment (??? 0.8??m). Chlorite and chlorite-smectite, which constitute the alteration sediment matrix around the hydrothermal mounds, are lower-temperature (150-200????C) phases produced by diffuse fluid discharge through the sediment around the hydrothermal conduits. In addition to temperature, other two controls on the precipitation of this sequence are the silica activity and Mg/Al ratio (i.e. the degree of mixing of seawater with hydrothermal fluid). Higher silica activity favors the formation of talc relative to tri-octahedral smectite. Vent structures and sedimentary cover preclude complete mixing of hydrothermal fluid and ambient seawater, resulting in lower Mg/Al ratios in the interior parts of the chimneys and deeper in the sediment which leads to the precipitation of phyllosilicates with lower Mg contents. Talc and kerolite-smectite have very low trace- and rare earth element contents. Some exhibit a negative or flat Eu anomaly, which suggests Eu depletion in the original hydrothermal fluid. Such Eu depletion could be caused by precipitation of anhydrite or barite (sinks for Eu2+) deeper in the system. REE abundances and distribution patterns indicate that chlorite and chlorite-smectite are hydrothermal alteration products of the background turbiditic sediment. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Changes in the Lorenz Energy Budget of the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, T. D.

2009-12-01

Several recent papers have addressed the topic of changes in global precipitation rates related to changes in Earth's global energy balance. Less studied are the processes that may be governing the large-scale regional distribution of precipitation around the globe. This study uses the energy budget partition paradigm first put forth by Lorenz (1955) and follows the methodology of Arpé et al. (1986) and Oriol (1982) to identify latitude bands where the partition of energy amongst zonal and eddy kinetic and potential energy bins may account for the spatial patterns of precipitation change predicted by many IPCC AR4 models. In doing so, this study may help to identify whether or not the climate change predicted by these models is indeed creating enhanced baroclinic storms in the mid-latitudes or if there are other mechanisms at work producing the patterns of precipitation change.

Impact of Plant Functional Types on Coherence Between Precipitation and Soil Moisture: A Wavelet Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qi; Hao, Yonghong; Stebler, Elaine; Tanaka, Nobuaki; Zou, Chris B.

2017-12-01

Mapping the spatiotemporal patterns of soil moisture within heterogeneous landscapes is important for resource management and for the understanding of hydrological processes. A critical challenge in this mapping is comparing remotely sensed or in situ observations from areas with different vegetation cover but subject to the same precipitation regime. We address this challenge by wavelet analysis of multiyear observations of soil moisture profiles from adjacent areas with contrasting plant functional types (grassland, woodland, and encroached) and precipitation. The analysis reveals the differing soil moisture patterns and dynamics between plant functional types. The coherence at high-frequency periodicities between precipitation and soil moisture generally decreases with depth but this is much more pronounced under woodland compared to grassland. Wavelet analysis provides new insights on soil moisture dynamics across plant functional types and is useful for assessing differences and similarities in landscapes with heterogeneous vegetation cover.

The effect of acid precipitation on tree growth in eastern North America

Treesearch

Charles V. Cogbill

1976-01-01

Detailed study of the history of forest tree growth by tree-ring analysis is used to assess the effect of acid precipitation. The pattern and historical trends of acid precipitation deposition are compared with growth trends from mature forest stands in New Hampshire and Tennessee. No clear indication of a regional, synchronized decrease in tree growth was found. The...

Rain Reevaporation, Boundary Layer Convection Interactions, and Pacific Rainfall Patterns in an AGCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bacmeister, Julio T.; Suarez, Max J.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2004-01-01

Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) show that parameterized rain re-evaporation has a large impact on simulated precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific, especially on the configuration of the model s intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Weak re-evaporation leads t o the formation of a "double ITCZ" during the northern warm season. The double ITCZ is accompanied by strong coupling between precipitation and high-frequency vertical motion in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Strong reevaporation leads to a better overall agreement of simulated precipitation with observations. The model s double ITCZ bias is reduced. At the same time, correlation between high-frequency vertical motion in the PBL and precipitation is reduced. Experiments with modified physics suggest that evaporative cooling by rain near the PBL top weakens the coupling between precipitation and vertical motion. This may reduce the model s tendency to form double ITCZs. The strength of high-frequency vertical motions in the PBL was also reduced directly through the introduction of a diffusive cumulus momentum transport (DCMT) parameterization. The DCMT had a visible impact on simulated precipitation in the tropics, but did not reduce the model s double bias in all cases.

Controls of precipitation δ18O on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau: A case study at Ngari station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xiaoyu; Tian, Lide; Wen, Rong; Yu, Wusheng; Qu, Dongmei

2017-06-01

The shifting atmospheric circulation between the Indian monsoon and the westerlies on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau (TP) influences precipitation as well as precipitation isotopes. Isotopic records will therefore show historical fluctuations. To understand better the factors controlling present day precipitation δ18O values on the northwestern TP, we made continuous observations of precipitation isotopes at Ngari station from 2010 to 2013. The drivers of precipitation δ18O were investigated using analyses of their statistical relations with temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, and convective activities based on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from NOAA satellites, and downward shortwave radiation (DSR) data collected at the Ngari automatic weather station. Atmospheric circulation patterns from NCAR reanalysis, and moisture transport paths of individual events derived from the HYSPLIT model using NCEP data, were also used to trace moisture sources. The results of our study include: (1) The slope and intercept of the Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL) at Ngari (δD = 8.51 δ18O + 11.57 (R2 = 0.97, p < 0.01)) were higher than for the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL), indicating drier local climatic conditions; (2) Precipitation δ18O values showed a weak ;temperature effect; and a weak ;precipitation amount effect; at Ngari; and (3) Convection (or temperature patterns) integrated over several days (0-20) preceding each event were determined to be the main driver of precipitation isotopic values in monsoon (or non-monsoon) season. The longer (shorter) periods of τm days when correlation coefficients between precipitation δ18O and OLR were at their maxima (minima) indicate deep convective activities (shorter moisture transportation pathways) in August (June, July, and September).

Reconstructing Hydrologic Variability in Southwestern North America Using Speleothem Proxies and Precipitation Isotopes from California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe-Glynn, Staryl

Precipitation in southwestern North America has exhibited significant natural variability over the past few thousand years. This variability has been attributed to sea surface temperature regimes in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and to the attendant shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. In particular, decadal variability in the North Pacific has influenced precipitation in this region during the twentieth century, but links to earlier droughts and pluvials are unclear. Here I assess these links using delta18 O measurements from a speleothem from southern California that spans AD 854-- 2007. I show that variations in the oxygen isotopes of the speleothem correlate to sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension region of the North Pacific, which affect the atmospheric trajectory and isotopic composition of moisture reaching the study site. Interpreting our speleothem data as a record of sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension, I find a strong 22-year periodicity, suggesting a persistent solar influence on North Pacific decadal variability. A comparison with tree-ring records of precipitation during the past millennium shows that some droughts occurred during periods of warmth in the Kuroshio Extension, similar to the instrumental record. However, other droughts did not and instead were likely influenced by other factors. The carbon isotope record indicates drier conditions are associated with higher delta13C values and may be a suitable proxy for reconstructing past drought variability. More research is needed to determine the controls on trace element concentrations. Finally, I find a significant increase in sea surface temperature variability over the past 150 years, which may reflect an influence of greenhouse gas concentrations on variability in the North Pacific. While drought is a common feature of climate in this region, most climate models also project extreme precipitation events to increase in frequency and severity because the climate changes largely due to increased water vapor content in a warmer atmosphere. I also utilize precipitation data and isotopic analysis from precipitation samples collected weekly from near the cave site at Giant Forest, Sequoia National Park, California, from 2001 to 2011, to analyze climate mode patterns during extreme precipitation events and to construct an isotopic data base of precipitation samples. Composite maps indicate extreme precipitation weeks consist of a weaker Aleutian Low, coupled with a deep low pressure cell located northwest of California and enhanced subtropical moisture. I find extreme precipitation weeks occur more often during the La Nina phase and less during the positive Eastern Pacific (EP) phase or during the Central Pacific (CP) neutral phase at our site. Analyses of climate mode patterns and precipitation amounts indicate that when the negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), negative and neutral Pacific North American pattern (PNA), and positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (La Nina) are in sync, the maximum amount of precipitation anomalies are distributed along the Western US. Additionally, the central or eastern Pacific location of El Nino Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature anomalies can further enhance predictive capabilities of the landfall location of extreme precipitation.

Role of moisture transport for Central American precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

María Durán-Quesada, Ana; Gimeno, Luis; Amador, Jorge

2017-02-01

A climatology of moisture sources linked with Central American precipitation was computed based upon Lagrangian trajectories for the analysis period 1980-2013. The response of the annual cycle of precipitation in terms of moisture supply from the sources was analysed. Regional precipitation patterns are mostly driven by moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea (CS). Moisture supply from the eastern tropical Pacific (ETPac) and northern South America (NSA) exhibits a strong seasonal pattern but weaker compared to CS. The regional distribution of rainfall is largely influenced by a local signal associated with surface fluxes during the first part of the rainy season, whereas large-scale dynamics forces rainfall during the second part of the rainy season. The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) and the Chocó Jet (CJ) are the main conveyors of regional moisture, being key to define the seasonality of large-scale forced rainfall. Therefore, interannual variability of rainfall is highly dependent of the regional LLJs to the atmospheric variability modes. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to be the dominant mode affecting moisture supply for Central American precipitation via the modulation of regional phenomena. Evaporative sources show opposite anomaly patterns during warm and cold ENSO phases, as a result of the strengthening and weakening, respectively, of the CLLJ during the summer months. Trends in both moisture supply and precipitation over the last three decades were computed, results suggest that precipitation trends are not homogeneous for Central America. Trends in moisture supply from the sources identified show a marked north-south seesaw, with an increasing supply from the CS Sea to northern Central America. Long-term trends in moisture supply are larger for the transition months (March and October). This might have important implications given that any changes in the conditions seen during the transition to the rainy season may induce stronger precipitation trends.

Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with observations are significant. These results indicate that CWRF can greatly improve mesoscale regional climate structures but it cannot change interannual variations of the large-scale patterns, which are determined by the driving lateral boundary conditions.

Simulating Future Changes in Spatio-temporal Precipitation by Identifying and Characterizing Individual Rainstorm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, W.; Stein, M.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Moyer, E. J.

2015-12-01

A growing body of literature suggests that human-induced climate change may cause significant changes in precipitation patterns, which could in turn influence future flood levels and frequencies and water supply and management practices. Although climate models produce full three-dimensional simulations of precipitation, analyses of model precipitation have focused either on time-averaged distributions or on individual timeseries with no spatial information. We describe here a new approach based on identifying and characterizing individual rainstorms in either data or model output. Our approach enables us to readily characterize important spatio-temporal aspects of rainstorms including initiation location, intensity (mean and patterns), spatial extent, duration, and trajectory. We apply this technique to high-resolution precipitation over the continental U.S. both from radar-based observations (NCEP Stage IV QPE product, 1-hourly, 4 km spatial resolution) and from model runs with dynamical downscaling (WRF regional climate model, 3-hourly, 12 km spatial resolution). In the model studies we investigate the changes in storm characteristics under a business-as-usual warming scenario to 2100 (RCP 8.5). We find that in these model runs, rainstorm intensity increases as expected with rising temperatures (approximately 7%/K, following increased atmospheric moisture content), while total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (3%/K), consistent with other studies. We identify for the first time the necessary compensating mechanism: in these model runs, individual precipitation events become smaller. Other aspects are approximately unchanged in the warmer climate. Because these spatio-temporal changes in rainfall patterns would impact regional hydrology, it is important that they be accurately incorporated into any impacts assessment. For this purpose we have developed a methodology for producing scenarios of future precipitation that combine observational data and model-projected changes. We statistically describe the future changes in rainstorm characteristics suggested by the WRF model and apply those changes to observational data. The resulting high spatial and temporal resolution scenarios have immediate applications for impacts assessment and adaptation studies.

Can small island mountains provide relief from the Subtropical Precipitation Decline? Simulating future precipitation regimes for small island nations using high resolution Regional Climate Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, J.; Terando, A. J.; Misra, V.; Wootten, A.

2017-12-01

Small island nations are vulnerable to changes in the hydrologic cycle because of their limited water resources. This risk to water security is likely even higher in sub-tropical regions where anthropogenic forcing of the climate system is expected to lead to a drier future (the so-called `dry-get-drier' pattern). However, high-resolution numerical modeling experiments have also shown an enhancement of existing orographically-influenced precipitation patterns on islands with steep topography, potentially mitigating subtropical drying on windward mountain sides. Here we explore the robustness of the near-term (25-45 years) subtropical precipitation decline (SPD) across two island groupings in the Caribbean, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These islands, forming the boundary between the Greater and Lesser Antilles, significantly differ in size, topographic relief, and orientation to prevailing winds. Two 2-km horizontal resolution regional climate model simulations are used to downscale a total of three different GCMs under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. Results indicate some possibility for modest increases in precipitation at the leading edge of the Luquillo Mountains in Puerto Rico, but consistent declines elsewhere. We conclude with a discussion of potential explanations for these patterns and the attendant risks to water security that subtropical small island nations could face as the climate warms.

Northern hemisphere jet stream positions indices as diagnostic tools for climate and ecosystem dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belmecheri, Soumaya; Babst, Flurin; Hudson, Amy R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Trouet, Valerie

2017-01-01

The latitudinal position of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream (NHJ) modulates the occurrence and frequency of extreme weather events. Precipitation anomalies in particular are associated with NHJ variability; the resulting floods and droughts can have considerable societal and economic impacts. This study develops a new climatology of the 300-hPa NHJ using a bottom-up approach based on seasonally explicit latitudinal NHJ positions. Four seasons with coherent NHJ patterns were identified (January–February, April–May, July–August, and October–November), along with 32 longitudinal sectors where the seasonal NHJ shows strong spatial coherence. These 32 longitudinal sectors were then used as NHJ position indices to examine the influence of seasonal NHJ position on the geographical distribution of NH precipitation and temperature variability and their link to atmospheric circulation pattern. The analyses show that the NHJ indices are related to broad-scale patterns in temperature and precipitation variability, in terrestrial vegetation productivity and spring phenology, and can be used as diagnostic/prognostic tools to link ecosystem and socioeconomic dynamics to upper-level atmospheric patterns.

Interactions Between Hydroclimate and Soil Properties Control the Risk For Altered Hydrologic Partitioning From Changing Snowmelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harpold, A. A.; Longley, P.; Weiss, S. G.; Kampf, S. K.; Flint, A. L.

2016-12-01

Mountain snowmelt is a critical water source for downstream human populations and local ecosystem health. Here we explore the relatively unknown hydrologic consequences of two observed trends in Western U.S. snowpack dynamics: 1) shifts from snow to rain and 2) earlier and slower snowmelt. We apply two modeling approaches to tease apart the hydrologic effects of altered winter water inputs: 1) highly resolved one-dimensional HYDRUS modeling based on the Richard's equation at intensively measured sites and 2) the distributed Basin Characterization Model (BCM) over the Southwestern U.S. with relatively simple subsurface processes. The HYDRUS model was trained using observations from ten Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites to investigate drainage below the root zone under scenarios of rain only and slower snowmelt. We found that shifts to rain-only regimes and earlier snowmelt both resulted in greater fluxes below the root zone using the measured soil depths. However, drainage fluxes and differences among scenarios diminished precipitously when rooting depths were increased to account for uncertainty. Next using the BCM, we compared water partitioning during historical runs from 1940-2014 to a scenario with all precipitation as rain but identical climate. We found that ET generally increased from eliminating snowpack sublimation. Recharge and runoff exhibited diverging responses to shifting precipitation regimes; runoff typically decreased and recharge increased, with the exception of areas in western and southern California and central Arizona. The observed changes in annual runoff and recharge were primarily caused by changes in input intensity and not changes in input timing. Runoff was most sensitive in areas with wet winters and low soil water storage. Both modeling approaches corroborated the potential for diverging changes in mountain water budgets from altered winter water inputs that will be mediated precipitation regime (i.e. precipitation intensity and timing) and soil water storage. Efforts to link these results to water resources will be discussed.

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo

1997-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.

Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guilbert, Justin; Betts, Alan K.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Beckage, Brian; Bomblies, Arne

2015-03-01

We present evidence of increasing persistence in daily precipitation in the northeastern United States that suggests that global circulation changes are affecting regional precipitation patterns. Meteorological data from 222 stations in 10 northeastern states are analyzed using Markov chain parameter estimates to demonstrate that a significant mode of precipitation variability is the persistence of precipitation events. We find that the largest region-wide trend in wet persistence (i.e., the probability of precipitation in 1 day and given precipitation in the preceding day) occurs in June (+0.9% probability per decade over all stations). We also find that the study region is experiencing an increase in the magnitude of high-intensity precipitation events. The largest increases in the 95th percentile of daily precipitation occurred in April with a trend of +0.7 mm/d/decade. We discuss the implications of the observed precipitation signals for watershed hydrology and flood risk.

Pulse frequency and soil-litter mixing alter the control of cumulative precipitation over litter decomposition.

PubMed

Joly, François-Xavier; Kurupas, Kelsey L; Throop, Heather L

2017-09-01

Macroclimate has traditionally been considered the predominant driver of litter decomposition. However, in drylands, cumulative monthly or annual precipitation typically fails to predict decomposition. In these systems, the windows of opportunity for decomposer activity may rather depend on the precipitation frequency and local factors affecting litter desiccation, such as soil-litter mixing. We used a full-factorial microcosm experiment to disentangle the relative importance of cumulative precipitation, pulse frequency, and soil-litter mixing on litter decomposition. Decomposition, measured as litter carbon loss, saturated with increasing cumulative precipitation when pulses were large and infrequent, suggesting that litter moisture no longer increased and/or microbial activity was no longer limited by water availability above a certain pulse size. More frequent precipitation pulses led to increased decomposition at high levels of cumulative precipitation. Soil-litter mixing consistently increased decomposition, with greatest relative increase (+194%) under the driest conditions. Collectively, our results highlight the need to consider precipitation at finer temporal scale and incorporate soil-litter mixing as key driver of decomposition in drylands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate change, estuaries and anadromous fish habitat in the northeastern United States: models, downscaling and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhling, B.; Gaitan, C. F.; Tommasi, D.; Saba, V. S.; Stock, C. A.; Dixon, K. W.

2016-02-01

Estuaries of the northeastern United States provide essential habitat for many anadromous fishes, across a range of life stages. Climate change is likely to impact estuarine environments and habitats through multiple pathways. Increasing air temperatures will result in a warming water column, and potentially increased stratification. In addition, changes to precipitation patterns may alter freshwater inflow dynamics, leading to altered seasonal salinity regimes. However, the spatial resolution of global climate models is generally insufficient to resolve these processes at the scale of individual estuaries. Global models can be downscaled to a regional resolution using a variety of dynamical and statistical methods. In this study, we examined projections of estuarine conditions, and future habitat extent, for several anadromous fishes in the Chesapeake Bay using different statistical downscaling methods. Sources of error from physical and biological models were quantified, and key areas of uncertainty were highlighted. Results suggested that future projections of the distribution and recruitment of species most strongly linked to freshwater flow dynamics had the highest levels of uncertainty. The sensitivity of different life stages to environmental conditions, and the population-level responses of anadromous species to climate change, were identified as important areas for further research.

Using repeat electrical resistivity surveys to assess heterogeneity in soil moisture dynamics under contrasting vegetation types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dick, Jonathan; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Bradford, John; Soulsby, Chris

2018-04-01

As the relationship between vegetation and soil moisture is complex and reciprocal, there is a need to understand how spatial patterns in soil moisture influence the distribution of vegetation, and how the structure of vegetation canopies and root networks regulates the partitioning of precipitation. Spatial patterns of soil moisture are often difficult to visualise as usually, soil moisture is measured at point scales, and often difficult to extrapolate. Here, we address the difficulties in collecting large amounts of spatial soil moisture data through a study combining plot- and transect-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys to estimate soil moisture in a 3.2 km2 upland catchment in the Scottish Highlands. The aim was to assess the spatio-temporal variability in soil moisture under Scots pine forest (Pinus sylvestris) and heather moorland shrubs (Calluna vulgaris); the two dominant vegetation types in the Scottish Highlands. The study focussed on one year of fortnightly ERT surveys. The surveyed resistivity data was inverted and Archie's law was used to calculate volumetric soil moisture by estimating parameters and comparing against field measured data. Results showed that spatial soil moisture patterns were more heterogeneous in the forest site, as were patterns of wetting and drying, which can be linked to vegetation distribution and canopy structure. The heather site showed a less heterogeneous response to wetting and drying, reflecting the more uniform vegetation cover of the shrubs. Comparing soil moisture temporal variability during growing and non-growing seasons revealed further contrasts: under the heather there was little change in soil moisture during the growing season. Greatest changes in the forest were in areas where the trees were concentrated reflecting water uptake and canopy partitioning. Such differences have implications for climate and land use changes; increased forest cover can lead to greater spatial variability, greater growing season temporal variability, and reduced levels of soil moisture, whilst projected decreasing summer precipitation may alter the feedbacks between soil moisture and vegetation water use and increase growing season soil moisture deficits.

Microbial community dynamics induced by rewetting dry soil: summer precipitation matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, Romain; Osborne, Catherine; Firestone, Mary

2015-04-01

The massive soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. We investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response, reflecting contrasting life-strategies for different groups. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Cloud water in windward and leeward mountain forests: The stable isotope signature of orographic cloud water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholl, M.A.; Giambelluca, T.W.; Gingerich, S.B.; Nullet, M.A.; Loope, L.L.

2007-01-01

Cloud water can be a significant hydrologic input to mountain forests. Because it is a precipitation source that is vulnerable to climate change, it is important to quantify amounts of cloud water input at watershed and regional scales. During this study, cloud water and rain samples were collected monthly for 2 years at sites on windward and leeward East Maui. The difference in isotopic composition between volume‐weighted average cloud water and rain samples was 1.4‰ δ18O and 12‰ δ2H for the windward site and 2.8‰ δ18O and 25‰ δ2H for the leeward site, with the cloud water samples enriched in 18O and 2H relative to the rain samples. A summary of previous literature shows that fog and/or cloud water is enriched in 18O and 2H compared to rain at many locations around the world; this study documents cloud water and rain isotopic composition resulting from weather patterns common to montane environments in the trade wind latitudes. An end‐member isotopic composition for cloud water was identified for each site and was used in an isotopic mixing model to estimate the proportion of precipitation input from orographic clouds. Orographic cloud water input was 37% of the total precipitation at the windward site and 46% at the leeward site. This represents an estimate of water input to the forest that could be altered by changes in cloud base altitude resulting from global climate change or deforestation.

The impact of 21st Century sea ice decline on the hydrological budget of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.; Kohler, J.

2009-12-01

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. GCMs suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by about 1.5 due, largely, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the ensemble GCM predictions and has lead to the suggestion that the Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer as soon as ~2014. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the water below during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. For example, changes in sea ice cover are thought to have caused changes in the mass balance of Europe’s largest ice cap, Austfona, Svalbard, by increasing accumulation. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmosphere only general circulation model HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice obtained by extrapolating recent changes into the future using bootstrapping based on the HadISST climatology. Here we use an RCM at 25km resolution over the Arctic which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation.

A Northern Hemisphere perspective on Holocene hydroclimate trends in the tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, D. J.; Polissar, P. J.; Abbott, M. B.

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of tropical precipitation are important for determining the sensitivity of rainfall patterns in the tropics to climate variability and improving the accuracy of projected hydrologic changes in a warming world. In tropical South America, precipitation is dominantly controlled by the South American Monsoon system (SAM), which operates in conjunction with the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to deliver water resources to hundreds of millions of people. The classic model of South American hydroclimate evolution during the Holocene (past 11 ka) invokes an anti-phased pattern of precipitation between hemispheres, whereby orbital forcing drove a gradual displacement of the ITCZ, causing a southerly shift in seasonal convection and precipitation, and strengthening the SAM as Southern Hemisphere summer insolation increased. Indeed, paleoclimate records derived from multiple geologic archives support this pattern. However, the vast majority of existing records come from the southern tropics and emerging terrestrial datasets from the northern tropics appear contrary to the paradigm. Here, we present lake sediment evidence for coupled hydroclimate and environmental changes from the Venezuelan Andes, a key region for investigating interhemispheric linkages and drivers of tropical hydroclimate variability. Compound specific hydrogen isotope ratios from terrestrial plant waxes and algal lipids, together with supporting sedimentary indicators of runoff and aridity, provide a comprehensive reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere tropical precipitation at local and regional scales. Our results are consistent in sign and magnitude to precipitation reconstructions from both hemispheres, indicating interhemispheric similarities in tropical hydroclimate variability and calling into question the synchronicity and phasing of hydroclimate trends in South America.

Out of the tropics: the Pacific, Great Basin lakes, and late Pleistocene water cycle in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyle, Mitchell; Heusser, Linda; Ravelo, Christina; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Barron, John; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Herbert, Timothy; Andreasen, Dyke

2012-01-01

The water cycle in the western U.S. changed dramatically over glacial cycles. In the last 20,000 years, higher precipitation caused desert lakes to form which have since dried out. Higher glacial precipitation is hypothesized to result from a southward shift of Pacific winter storm tracks. We compared Pacific Ocean data to lake levels from the interior west and found that Great Basin lake high stands are older than coastal wet periods at the same latitude. Westerly storms were not the source of high precipitation. Instead, air masses from the tropical Pacific were transported northward, bringing more precipitation into the Great Basin when coastal California was still dry. The changing climate during the deglaciation altered precipitation source regions and strongly affected the regional water cycle.

Out of the tropics: the Pacific, Great Basin lakes, and late Pleistocene water cycle in the western United States.

PubMed

Lyle, Mitchell; Heusser, Linda; Ravelo, Christina; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Barron, John; Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Herbert, Timothy; Andreasen, Dyke

2012-09-28

The water cycle in the western United States changed dramatically over glacial cycles. In the past 20,000 years, higher precipitation caused desert lakes to form which have since dried out. Higher glacial precipitation has been hypothesized to result from a southward shift of Pacific winter storm tracks. We compared Pacific Ocean data to lake levels from the interior west and found that Great Basin lake high stands are older than coastal wet periods at the same latitude. Westerly storms were not the source of high precipitation. Instead, air masses from the tropical Pacific were transported northward, bringing more precipitation into the Great Basin when coastal California was still dry. The changing climate during the deglaciation altered precipitation source regions and strongly affected the regional water cycle.

Instability of an infiltration-driven dissolution-precipitation front with a nonmonotonic porosity profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondratiuk, Paweł; Dutka, Filip; Szymczak, Piotr

2016-04-01

Infiltration of a rock by an external fluid very often drives it out of chemical equilibrium. As a result, alteration of the rock mineral composition occurs. It does not however proceed uniformly in the entire rock volume. Instead, one or more reaction fronts are formed, which are zones of increased chemical activity, separating the altered (product) rock from the yet unaltered (primary) one. The reaction fronts propagate with velocities which are usually much smaller than those of the infiltrating fluid. One of the simplest examples of such alteration is the dissolution of some of the minerals building the primary rock. For instance, calcium carbonate minerals in the rock matrix can be dissolved by infiltrating acidic fluids. In such a case the product rock has higher porosity and permeability than the primary one. Due to positive feedbacks between the reactant transport, fluid flow, and porosity generation, the reaction fronts in porosity-generating replacement systems are inherently unstable. An arbitrarily small protrusion of the front gets magnified and develops into a highly porous finger-like or funnel-like structure. This feature of dissolution fronts, dubbed the "reactive-infiltration instability" [1], is responsible for the formation of a number of geological patterns, such as solution pipes or various karst forms. It is also of practical importance, since spontaneous front breakup and development of localized highly porous flow paths (a.k.a. "wormholes") is favourable by petroleum engineers, who apply acidization to oil-bearing reservoirs in order to increase their permeability. However, more complex chemical reactions might occur during infiltration of a rock by a fluid. In principle, the products of dissolution might react with other species present either in the fluid or in the rock and reprecipitate [2]. The dissolution and precipitation fronts develop and and begin to propagate with equal velocities, forming a single dissolution-precipitation front. The porosity profile is not monotonic as in the case of pure dissolution, but it typically has a minimum in the vicinity of the front. Additionally, the porosity difference between the initial rock far-downstream and the well-developed secondary rock far-upstream can be either negative or positive, which either destabilizes of stabilized the front. We propose a theoretical model of a simple infiltration-driven dissolution-precipitation system and find the morphology of the resulting planar reaction front. By performing linear stability analysis of the stationary planar solutions we show that the front can be unstable for a wide range of control parameters, even if the porosity of the secondary rock is lower than the porosity of the primary rock. Next, by numerical simulations of the full nonlinear model we present the long-term evolution of the system. [1] D. Chadam et al., IMA J. Appl. Math. 36, 207-221, 1986. [2] A. Putnis, Rev. Mineral. Geochemistry, 70(1), 87-124, 2009.

Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küttel, Marcel; Luterbacher, Jürg; Wanner, Heinz

2011-03-01

Using pressure fields classified by the SANDRA algorithm, this study investigates the changes in the relationship between North Atlantic/European sea level pressure (SLP) and gridded European winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation back to 1750. Important changes in the frequency of the SLP clusters are found, though none of them indicating significant long-term trends. However, for the majority of the SLP clusters a tendency toward overall warmer and partly wetter winter conditions is found, most pronounced over the last decades. This suggests important within-type variations, i.e. the temperature and precipitation fields related to a particular SLP pattern change their characteristics over time. Using a decomposition scheme we find for temperature and precipitation that within-type-related variations dominate over those due to changed frequencies of the SLP clusters: Approximately 70% (60%) of European winter temperature (precipitation) variations can be explained by within-type changes, most strongly expressed over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. This indicates that the current European winter warming cannot be explained by changed frequencies of the SLP patterns alone, but to a larger degree by changed characteristics of the patterns themselves. Potential sources of within-type variations are discussed.

Impact of high-latitude energy input on the mid- and low-latitude ionosphere and thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, G.; Sheng, C.

2017-12-01

High-latitude energy input has a profound impact on the ionosphere and thermosphere especially during geomagnetic storms. Intense auroral particle precipitation ionizes neutral gases and modifies ionospheric conductivity; collisions between neutrals and fast-moving ions accelerate the neutral winds and produce Joule frictional heating; and the excess Joule and particle heating causes atmospheric upwelling and changes neutral composition due to the rising of the heavier, molecular-rich air. In addition, impulsive Joule heating launches large-scale gravity waves that propagate equatorward toward middle and low latitudes and even into the opposite hemisphere, altering the mean global circulation of the thermosphere. Furthermore, high-latitude electric field can also directly penetrate to lower latitudes under rapidly changing external conditions, causing prompt ionospheric variations in the mid- and low-latitude regions. To study the effects of high-latitude energy input, we apply the different convection and auroral precipitation patterns based on both empirical models and the AMIE outputs. We investigate how the mid- and low-latitude regions respond to the different specifications of high-latitude energy input. The main purpose of the study is to delineate the various dynamical, electrodynamical, and chemical processes and to determine their relative importance in the resulting ionospheric and thermospheric properties at mid and low latitudes.

Gene expression patterns of two dominant tallgrass prairie species differ in response to warming and altered precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Melinda D.; Hoffman, Ava M.; Avolio, Meghan L.

2016-05-01

To better understand the mechanisms underlying plant species responses to climate change, we compared transcriptional profiles of the co-dominant C4 grasses, Andropogon gerardii Vitman and Sorghastrum nutans (L.) Nash, in response to increased temperatures and more variable precipitation regimes in a long-term field experiment in native tallgrass prairie. We used microarray probing of a closely related model species (Zea mays) to assess correlations in leaf temperature (Tleaf) and leaf water potential (LWP) and abundance changes of ~10,000 transcripts in leaf tissue collected from individuals of both species. A greater number of transcripts were found to significantly change in abundance levels with Tleaf and LWP in S. nutans than in A. gerardii. S. nutans also was more responsive to short-term drought recovery than A. gerardii. Water flow regulating transcripts associated with stress avoidance (e.g., aquaporins), as well as those involved in the prevention and repair of damage (e.g., antioxidant enzymes, HSPs), were uniquely more abundant in response to increasing Tleaf in S. nutans. The differential transcriptomic responses of the co-dominant C4 grasses suggest that these species may cope with and respond to temperature and water stress at the molecular level in distinct ways, with implications for tallgrass prairie ecosystem function.

An analysis of the daily precipitation variability in the Himalayan orogen using a statistical parameterisation and its potential in driving landscape evolution models with stochastic climatic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deal, Eric; Braun, Jean

2015-04-01

A current challenge in landscape evolution modelling is to integrate realistic precipitation patterns and behaviour into longterm fluvial erosion models. The effect of precipitation on fluvial erosion can be subtle as well as nonlinear, implying that changes in climate (e.g. precipitation magnitude or storminess) may have unexpected outcomes in terms of erosion rates. For example Tucker and Bras (2000) show theoretically that changes in the variability of precipitation (storminess) alone can influence erosion rate across a landscape. To complicate the situation further, topography, ultimately driven by tectonic uplift but shaped by erosion, has a major influence on the distribution and style of precipitation. Therefore, in order to untangle the coupling between climate, erosion and tectonics in an actively uplifting orogen where fluvial erosion is dominant it is important to understand how the 'rain dial' used in a landscape evolution model (LEM) corresponds to real precipitation patterns. One issue with the parameterisation of rainfall for use in an LEM is the difference between the timescales for precipitation (≤ 1 year) and landscape evolution (> 103 years). As a result, precipitation patterns must be upscaled before being integrated into a model. The relevant question then becomes: What is the most appropriate measure of precipitation on a millennial timescale? Previous work (Tucker and Bras, 2000; Lague, 2005) has shown that precipitation can be properly upscaled by taking into account its variable nature, along with its average magnitude. This captures the relative size and frequency of extreme events, ensuring a more accurate characterisation of the integrated effects of precipitation on erosion over long periods of time. In light of this work, we present a statistical parameterisation that accurately models the mean and daily variability of ground based (APHRODITE) and remotely sensed (TRMM) precipitation data in the Himalayan orogen with only a few parameters. We also demonstrate over what spatial and temporal scales this parameterisation applies and is stable. Applying the parameterisation over the Himalayan orogen reveals large-scale strike-perpendicular gradients in precipitation variability in addition to the long observed strike-perpendicular gradient in precipitation magnitude. This observation, combined with the theoretical work mentioned above, suggests that variability is an integral part of the interaction between climate and erosion. References Bras, R. L., & Tucker, G. E. (2000). A stochastic approach to modeling the role of rainfall variability in drainage basin evolution. Water Resources Research, 36(7), 1953-1964. doi:10.1029/2000WR900065 Lague, D. (2005). Discharge, discharge variability, and the bedrock channel profile. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(F4), F04006. doi:10.1029/2004JF000259

The ENSO Effect on the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Global Lightning Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis G.; Goodman, Steven J.; Cecil, Dan; Buechler, Dennis; Pittman, Jasna; Robertson, Franklin R.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2007-01-01

The recently reprocessed (1997-2006) OTD/LIS database is used to investigate the global lightning climatology in response to the ENSO cycle. A linear correlation map between lightning anomalies and ENSO (NINO3.4) identifies areas that generally follow patterns similar to precipitation anomalies. We also observed areas where significant lightning/ENSO correlations are found and are not accompanied of significant precipitation/ENSO correlations. An extreme case of the strong decoupling between lightning and precipitation is observed over the Indonesian peninsula (Sumatra) where positive lightning/NINO3.4 correlations are collocated with negative precipitation/NINO3.4 correlations. Evidence of linear relationships between the spatial extent of thunderstorm distribution and the respective NINO3.4 magnitude are presented for different regions on the Earth. Strong coupling is found over areas remote to the main ENSO axis of influence and both during warm and cold ENSO phases. Most of the resulted relationships agree with the tendencies of precipitation related to ENSO empirical maps or documented teleconnection patterns. Over the Australian continent, opposite behavior in terms of thunderstorm activity is noted for warm ENSO phases with NINO3.4 magnitudes with NINO3.4>+l.08 and 0

Spatial and topgraphic trends in forest expansion and biomass change, from regional to local scales

Treesearch

Brian Buma; Tara M. Barrett

2015-01-01

Natural forest growth and expansion are important carbon sequestration processes globally. Climate change is likely to increase forest growth in some regions via CO2 fertilization, increased temperatures, and altered precipitation; however, altered disturbance regimes and climate stress (e.g. drought) will act to reduce carbon stocks in forests...

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts.

PubMed

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C; Belnap, Jayne

2015-09-29

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. Although there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.