The Discourse Function of the Greek Future Tense-Form: A Corpus Linguistic Discourse Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Long, Craig M.

2013-01-01

As the Greek verbal system has become the subject of various dissertations and monographs, the future tense-form has been generally overlooked in the discussion. This dissertation seeks to overcome this lacuna by suggesting that the future tense-form functions as a rhetorical feature that expresses the author's expectation of an alternative state…

Education and Training in New and Renewable Sources of Energy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beresovski, T.; And Others

1981-01-01

Identifies past and present efforts and future directions for UNESCO activities related to energy but focusing on alternative energy sources. Reports results of an international survey and analysis of programs, facilities, and needs in alternative energy education and training. Outlines curricula for policymakers, specialists, and technicians. (DC)

Alternative Practice Dental Hygiene in California: Past, Present, and Future

PubMed Central

MERTZ, ELIZABETH; GLASSMAN, PAUL

2012-01-01

This study examines the development of the registered dental hygienist in alternative practice in California through an analysis of archival documents, stakeholder interviews, and two surveys of the registered dental hygienist in alternative practice. Designing, testing and implementing a new practice model for dental hygienists took 23 years. Today, registered dental hygienists in alternative practice have developed viable alternative methods for delivering preventive oral health care services in a range of settings with patients who often have no other source of access to care. PMID:21337961

Metropolitan Washington Area Water Supply Study. Appendix C. Public Involvement.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

identi- fy and evaluate alternative methods of alleviating future deficits. Initiated in 1976, the study was conducted in two phases over a 7-year...analysis of +he full spectrum of structural and nonstructural water supply alternati’, s. In addition to such traditional water supply alternatives as...Investigation, Occoquan Interconnection Interconnections and Comparison Reregulation Structural Alternatives F-I Digital Simulation of Groundwater Flow in Part of

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Women and Peace [And] Vienna Conference: Women and Disarmament [And] Women, Power and Alternative Futures, Part I: Women and World Order [And] Women, Power and Alternative Futures, Part II: Women and Power. The Whole Earth Papers. Vol. 1, No. 6-8, Spring, 1978.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubin, Josephine; Mische, Patricia

Four papers explore the role of women in promoting a peaceful world order. The volume is intended to increase understanding of the linkages between local and global issues, and to examine them as interrelated issues in an interdependent world. The first paper, "Women and Peace," is a historical analysis of the role of individual women, feminists,…

Recruiting, Retention, and Future Levels of Military Personnel

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-01

analysis. Nabeel Alsalam, David Moore, Matthew Schmit, and Roberton Williams provided comments. Stanley A. Horowitz of the Institute for Defense Analyses...afps04.htm. 8. See Congressional Budget Office, The Army’s Future Combat Sys - tem and Alternatives (August 2006), Table 2-1, p. 18. 9. See the Ronald W

FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

Methodology for the comparative assessment of the Satellite Power System (SPS) and alternative technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolsko, T.; Buehring, W.; Cirillo, R.; Gasper, J.; Habegger, L.; Hub, K.; Newsom, D.; Samsa, M.; Stenehjem, E.; Whitfield, R.

1980-01-01

The energy systems concerned are the satellite power system, several coal technologies, geothermal energy, fission, fusion, terrestrial solar systems, and ocean thermal energy conversion. Guidelines are suggested for the characterization of these systems, side-by-side analysis, alternative futures analysis, and integration and aggregation of data. A description of the methods for assessing the technical, economic, environmental, societal, and institutional issues surrounding the development of the selected energy technologies is presented.

Intergenerational considerations affecting the future of nuclear power: equity as a framework for assessing fuel cycles.

PubMed

Taebi, Behnam; Kadak, Andrew C

2010-09-01

Alternative fuel cycles are being considered in an effort to prolong uranium fuel supplies for thousands of years to come and to manage nuclear waste. These strategies bring with them different benefits and burdens for the present generation and for future generations. In this article, we present a method that provides insight into future fuel cycle alternatives and into the conflicts arising between generations within the framework of intergenerational equity. A set of intersubjective values is drawn from the notion of sustainable development. By operationalizing these values and mapping out their impacts, value criteria are introduced for the assessment of fuel cycles, which are based on the distribution of burdens and benefits between generations. The once-through fuel cycle currently deployed in the United States and three future fuel cycles are subsequently assessed according to these criteria. The four alternatives are then compared in an integrated analysis in which we shed light on the implicit tradeoffs made by decisionmakers when they choose a certain fuel cycle. When choosing a fuel cycle, what are the societal costs and burdens accepted for each generation and how can these factors be justified? This article presents an integrated decision-making method, which considers intergenerational aspects of such decisions; this method could also be applied to other technologies. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Future Integrated Architecture (FIA): A Proposed Space Internetworking Architecture for Future Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

WiMax “as a ‘last mile’ broadband wireless access (BWA) alternative to cable modem service, telephone company Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) or T1/E1...MUOS at 56k , shows results similar to another simulation with different circuit configurations. Analysis presented in this thesis shows adequate

Alternative futures of proactive tools for a citizen's own wellbeing.

PubMed

Meristö, Tarja; Tuohimaa, Hanna; Leppimäki, Sami; Laitinen, Jukka

2009-01-01

The aim of this paper is to create the basis for a vision of an empowered citizen who can control his/her life, especially in relation to health and personal wellbeing with the use of new ICT-tools. The methods used in the study are based on futures studies, especially on scenario methodology. Alternative future paths, i.e. scenarios are constructed using the scenario filter model that we have developed, with market, technology and society perspectives. Scenarios not resulting in the vision are described in what if - analysis as well. The scenarios are combined with Viherä's model on citizen's skills, access and motivation to use new ICT-tools. The concept COPER is targeted to different user groups with an adaptable user interface and its development is user centered. We will consider the effects and the appropriate elements of COPER in every scenario, as well as the possibilities and challenges nursing will confront. As a result we will gain information of the characteristic of COPER that advance the vision. For the future development of COPER the alternative scenarios give the basis for flexibility planning, too.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessore, Nicolas; Metcalf, R. Benton; Winther, Hans A.

A number of alternatives to general relativity exhibit gravitational screening in the non-linear regime of structure formation. We describe a set of algorithms that can produce weak lensing maps of large scale structure in such theories and can be used to generate mock surveys for cosmological analysis. By analysing a few basic statistics we indicate how these alternatives can be distinguished from general relativity with future weak lensing surveys.

The Future of Big-City Schools; Desegregation Policies and Magnet Alternatives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Daniel U., Ed.; Havighurst, Robert J., Ed.

This book provides an in-depth analysis of urban education and related issues. The issues examined are not only fundamentally important for urban education, but in addition, several issues that have recently become prominent in considering the future of big cities are discussed. For instance, the effects of desegregation on middle class enrollment…

Developing Scenarios: Linking Environmental Scanning and Strategic Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whiteley, Meredith A.; And Others

1990-01-01

The multiple scenario analysis technique for organizational planning used by multinational corporations is adaptable for colleges and universities. Arizona State University launched a futures-based planning project using the Delphi technique and cross-impact analysis to produce three alternative scenarios (stable, turbulent, and chaotic) to expand…

Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

2012-12-01

The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other options. The over-arching Study Manager provides a graphical tool to create combinations of future supply scenarios, demand scenarios, infrastructure and operating policy alternatives; each scenario is executed as an ensemble of RiverWare runs, driven by the hydrologic supply. The Study Manager sets up and manages multiple executions on multi-core hardware. The sizeable are typically direct model outputs, or post-processed indicators of performance based on model outputs. Post processing statistical analysis of the outputs are possible using the Graphical Policy Analysis Tool or other statistical packages. Several Basin Studies undertaken have used RiverWare to evaluate future scenarios. The Colorado River Basin Study, the most complex and extensive to date, has taken advantage of these tools and techniques to generate supply scenarios, produce alternative demand scenarios and to set up and execute the many combinations of supplies, demands, policies, and infrastructure alternatives. The tools and techniques will be described with example applications.

Helios Dynamics A Potential Future Power Source for the Greek Islands

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

offer an apparent understanding of the capabilities of the emerging Photovoltaic Power Converter (PVPC) technology used in panels for electricity... powering method that uses fueled generators and the alternative option is photovoltaic panels with the Atira technology embedded. This analysis is... POWER SOURCE FOR THE GREEK ISLANDS ABSTRACT The use of Alternative Renewable Energy Sources is becoming an increasing possibility to

A framework for evaluating forest restoration alternatives and their outcomes, over time, to inform monitoring: Bioregional inventory originated simulation under management

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Fried; Theresa B. Jain; Sara Loreno; Robert F. Keefe; Conor K. Bell

2017-01-01

The BioSum modeling framework summarizes current and prospective future forest conditions under alternative management regimes along with their costs, revenues and product yields. BioSum translates Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for input to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), summarizes FVS outputs for input to the treatment operations cost model (OpCost...

Empirical analysis on future-cash arbitrage risk with portfolio VaR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Rongda; Li, Cong; Wang, Weijin; Wang, Ze

2014-03-01

This paper constructs the positive arbitrage position by alternating the spot index with Chinese Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) portfolio and estimating the arbitrage-free interval of futures with the latest trade data. Then, an improved Delta-normal method was used, which replaces the simple linear correlation coefficient with tail dependence correlation coefficient, to measure VaR (Value-at-risk) of the arbitrage position. Analysis of VaR implies that the risk of future-cash arbitrage is less than that of investing completely in either futures or spot market. Then according to the compositional VaR and the marginal VaR, we should increase the futures position and decrease the spot position appropriately to minimize the VaR, which can minimize risk subject to certain revenues.

The influence of globalization on medical regulation: a descriptive analysis of international medical graduates registered through alternative licensure routes in Ontario.

PubMed

Yen, Wendy; Hodwitz, Kathryn; Thakkar, Niels; Martimianakis, Maria Athina Tina; Faulkner, Dan

2016-12-01

The increasing globalization of the medical profession has influenced health policy, health human resource planning, and medical regulation in Canada. Since the early 2000s, numerous policy initiatives have been created to facilitate the entry of international medical graduates (IMGs) into the Canadian workforce. In Ontario, the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO) developed alternative licensure routes to increase the ability of qualified IMGs to obtain licenses to practice. The current study provides demographic and descriptive information about the IMGs registered through the CPSO's alternative licensure routes between 2000 and 2012. An analysis of the characteristics and career trajectories of all IMGs practicing in the province sheds light on broader globalization trends and raises questions about the future of health human resource planning in Canada. As the medical profession becomes increasingly globalized, health policy and regulation will continue to be influenced by trends in international migration, concerns about global health equity, and the shifting demographics of the Canadian physician workforce. Implications for future policy development in the complex landscape of medical education and practice are discussed.

Hypertriglyceridemic waist might be an alternative to metabolic syndrome for predicting future diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

He, Sen; Zheng, Yi; Shu, Yan; He, Jiyun; Wang, Yong; Chen, Xiaoping

2013-01-01

In some cross-sectional studies, hypertriglyceridemic waist (HTGW) has been recommended as an alternative to metabolic syndrome (MetS) for screening individuals at high risk for diabetes mellitus (DM). However, little information is about the predictive power of HTGW for future DM. The aims of the study were to assess the DM predictive power of HTGW compared with MetS based on the follow-up data over 15 years collected from a general Chinese population. And Findings: The data were collected in 1992 and then again in 2007 from the same group of 687 individuals without DM in 1992. For the whole population (n =687), multivariate analysis showed presence of HTGW was associated with a 4.1-fold (95%CI: 2.4-7.0, p < 0.001) increased risk and presence of MetS was associated with a 3.7-fold (95%CI: 2.2-6.2, p < 0.001) increased risk for future DM. For the population without elevated fasting plasma glucose (n = 650), multivariate analysis showed presence of HTGW was associated with a 3.9-fold (95%CI: 2.2-7.0, p < 0.001) increased risk and presence of MetS was associated with a 3.7-fold (95%CI: 2.1-6.6, p < 0.001) increased risk for future DM. HTGW could predict future DM independently, and the predictive power was similar to MetS. HTGW might be an alternative to MetS for predicting future DM. For simpler and fewer components, HTGW might be more practical than MetS, and it might be recommended in most clinical practices. This finding might be more useful for the individuals who only have elevated WC and TG. Although these individuals are without MetS, they are still at high risk for future DM, similarly to the individuals with MetS.

Determination of Flood Reduction Alternatives for Climate Change Adaptation in Gyeongancheon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, D.; Joo, H. J.; Jung, J.; Kim, H. S.

2017-12-01

Recently, the frequency of extreme rainfall event has increased due to the climate change and the impermeable area in an urban watershed has also increased due to the rapid urbanization. Therefore, the flood risk is increasing and we ought to prepare countermeasures for flood damage reduction. For the determination of appropriate measures or alternatives, firstly, this study estimated the frequency based rainfall considering the climate change according to the each target period(reference : 1971˜2010, Target period Ⅰ : 2011˜2040, Target period Ⅱ : 2041˜2070, Target period Ⅲ : 2071˜2100). Then the future flood discharge was computed by using HEC-HMS model. We set 5 sizes of drainage pumps and detention ponds respectively as the flood reduction alternatives and the flood level in the river was obtained by each alternative through HEC-RAS model. The flood inundation map was constructed using topographical data and flood water level in the river and the economic analysis was conducted for the flood damage reduction studies using Multi Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis (MD-FDA) tool. As a result of the effectiveness analysis of the flood reduction alternatives, the flood level by drainage pump was reduced by 0.06m up to 0.44m while it was reduced by 0.01m up to 1.86m in the case of the detention pond. The flooded area was shrunk by up to 32.64% from 0.3% and inundation depth was also dropped. As a result of a comparison of the Benefit/Cost ratio estimated by the economic analysis, a detention pond E in the target period Ⅰ and the pump D in the periods Ⅱ and Ⅲ were considered as the appropriate alternatives for the flood damage reduction under the climate change. AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning(2017R1A2B3005695)

Analysis of the Death Gratuity Program: History, Current Issues and Future Implications

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

addition to the death gratuity, there are also a number of other benefits available to families and beneficiaries upon the death of a servicemember...An entire chapter is dedicated to covering these other benefits . Finally, this project analyzes an alternative method of funding the death gratuity...program and presents the advantages and drawbacks of such an alternative. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 59 14. SUBJECT TERMS Death gratuity

Executive Summary of Systems Analysis to Develop Future Civil Aircraft Noise Reduction Alternatives.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-05-01

options in the unit cost analysis. These requirements were that the selected land use options should be applicable nationwide, be amenable to public ... adminstration , provide benefits in terms of direct reduction of noise exposure, and result in costs and benefits that could be readily quantifiable for use

Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning

PubMed Central

Maurer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2017-01-01

We compare the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)–or more precisely, models used in multi-attribute value theory (MAVT)–to integrated assessment (IA) models for supporting long-term water supply planning in a small town case study in Switzerland. They are used to evaluate thirteen system scale water supply alternatives in four future scenarios regarding forty-four objectives, covering technical, social, environmental, and economic aspects. The alternatives encompass both conventional and unconventional solutions and differ regarding technical, spatial and organizational characteristics. This paper focuses on the impact assessment and final evaluation step of the structured MCDA decision support process. We analyze the performance of the alternatives for ten stakeholders. We demonstrate the implications of model assumptions by comparing two IA and three MAVT evaluation model layouts of different complexity. For this comparison, we focus on the validity (ranking stability), desirability (value), and distinguishability (value range) of the alternatives given the five model layouts. These layouts exclude or include stakeholder preferences and uncertainties. Even though all five led us to identify the same best alternatives, they did not produce identical rankings. We found that the MAVT-type models provide higher distinguishability and a more robust basis for discussion than the IA-type models. The needed complexity of the model, however, should be determined based on the intended use of the model within the decision support process. The best-performing alternatives had consistently strong performance for all stakeholders and future scenarios, whereas the current water supply system was outperformed in all evaluation layouts. The best-performing alternatives comprise proactive pipe rehabilitation, adapted firefighting provisions, and decentralized water storage and/or treatment. We present recommendations for possible ways of improving water supply planning in the case study and beyond. PMID:28481881

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 7: Study recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Research and analysis tasks to alleviate negative impacts, to augment positive impacts, or to better understand the impacts produced by the potential introduction of the alternate transportation technologies are identified. The project team's recommendations on research and analysis efforts which have resulted from the technology assessment are provided. Many of the recommendations apply to the future supply of intercity passenger transportation services, categorized by mode. Other recommendations pertain to broad issues in intercity transportation--e.g., finance, regulation, traveler values--that will affect all modes.

The operating room of the future: observations and commentary.

PubMed

Satava, Richard M

2003-09-01

The Operating Room of the Future is a construct upon which to develop the next generation of operating environments for the patient, surgeon, and operating team. Analysis of the suite of visions for the Operating Room of the Future reveals a broad set of goals, with a clear overall solution to create a safe environment for high-quality healthcare. The vision, although planned for the future, is based upon iteratively improving and integrating current systems, both technology and process. This must become the Operating Room of Today, which will require the enormous efforts described. An alternative future of the operating room, based upon emergence of disruptive technologies, is also presented.

Technical assistance report : I-73 economic impact analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-01-01

This study assessed the probable economic impact of the future Interstate 73 along each of twelve alternative corridors that were proposed for the new highway. The contents of this report were originally distributed in four parts during February and ...

Variations in the susceptibility to landslides, as a consequence of land cover changes: A look to the past, and another towards the future.

PubMed

Pisano, L; Zumpano, V; Malek, Ž; Rosskopf, C M; Parise, M

2017-12-01

Land cover is one of the most important conditioning factors in landslide susceptibility analysis. Usually it is considered as a static factor, but it has proven to be dynamic, with changes occurring even in few decades. In this work the influence of land cover changes on landslide susceptibility are analyzed for the past and for future scenarios. For the application, an area representative of the hilly-low mountain sectors of the Italian Southern Apennines was chosen (Rivo basin, in Molise Region). With this purpose landslide inventories and land cover maps were produced for the years 1954, 1981 and 2007. Two alternative future scenarios were created for 2050, one which follows the past trend (2050-trend), and another one more extreme, foreseeing a decrease of forested and cultivated areas (2050-alternative). The landslide susceptibility analysis was performed using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation method for different time steps, investigating changes to susceptibility over time. The results show that environmental dynamics, such as land cover change, affect slope stability in time. In fact there is a decrease of susceptibility in the past and in the future 2050-trend scenario. This is due to the increase of forest or cultivated areas, that is probably determined by a better land management, water and soil control respect to other land cover types such as shrubland, pasture or bareland. Conversely the results revealed by the alternative scenario (2050-alternative), show how the decrease in forest and cultivated areas leads to an increase in landslide susceptibility. This can be related to the assumed worst climatic condition leading to a minor agricultural activity and lower extension of forested areas, possibly associated also to the effects of forest fires. The results suggest that conscious landscape management might contribute to determine a significant reduction in landslide susceptibility. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy Logic Approaches to Multi-Objective Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, Terry L.

1994-01-01

Fuzzy logic allows for the quantitative representation of multi-objective decision-making problems which have vague or fuzzy objectives and parameters. As such, fuzzy logic approaches are well-suited to situations where alternatives must be assessed by using criteria that are subjective and of unequal importance. This paper presents an overview of fuzzy logic and provides sample applications from the aerospace industry. Applications include an evaluation of vendor proposals, an analysis of future space vehicle options, and the selection of a future space propulsion system. On the basis of the results provided in this study, fuzzy logic provides a unique perspective on the decision-making process, allowing the evaluator to assess the degree to which each option meets the evaluation criteria. Future decision-making should take full advantage of fuzzy logic methods to complement existing approaches in the selection of alternatives.

Alternatives for NASTRAN maintenance, modification and dissemination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaeffer, H. G.

1977-01-01

Various alternatives to direct NASA support of the program are considered ranging from no support at one end of the spectrum to subsidizing a non profit user's group at the other. Of all the alternatives that are developed, the user group appears to be most viable. NASA's past and future roles in the development of computerized technology are also considered. The need for an institute for computational analysis is identified and NASA's possible involvement is described. The goals of the proposed institute and research funds to support an activity that has the potential of a much larger impact on the technical community are identified.

Satellite Power System (SPS): an Overview of Prospective Organizational Structures in the Solar Satellite Field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edler, H. G.

1978-01-01

A literature survey, interviews with acknowledged experts in the fields of organizational entities, space, solar energy, and the SPS concept, and an analysis of these inputs to identify the organizational alternatives and make judgments as to their feasibility to serve as patterns for a future SPS entity are presented. Selection and evaluation criteria were determined to include timeliness, reliability, and adequacy to contribute meaningfully to the U.S. supply; political feasibility (both national and international) and cost-effectiveness (including environmental and other external costs). Based on these criteria, four organizational alternatives are discussed which offer reasonable promise as potential options for SPS. These included three domestic alternatives and one international alternative.

Future Fuel.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stover, Del

1991-01-01

Tough new environmental laws, coupled with fluctuating oil prices, are likely to prompt hundreds of school systems to examine alternative fuels. Literature reviews and interviews with 45 government, education, and industry officials provided data for a comparative analysis of gasoline, diesel, natural gas, methanol, and propane. (MLF)

The influence of globalization on medical regulation: a descriptive analysis of international medical graduates registered through alternative licensure routes in Ontario

PubMed Central

Yen, Wendy; Hodwitz, Kathryn; Thakkar, Niels; Martimianakis, Maria Athina (Tina); Faulkner, Dan

2016-01-01

The increasing globalization of the medical profession has influenced health policy, health human resource planning, and medical regulation in Canada. Since the early 2000s, numerous policy initiatives have been created to facilitate the entry of international medical graduates (IMGs) into the Canadian workforce. In Ontario, the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO) developed alternative licensure routes to increase the ability of qualified IMGs to obtain licenses to practice. The current study provides demographic and descriptive information about the IMGs registered through the CPSO’s alternative licensure routes between 2000 and 2012. An analysis of the characteristics and career trajectories of all IMGs practicing in the province sheds light on broader globalization trends and raises questions about the future of health human resource planning in Canada. As the medical profession becomes increasingly globalized, health policy and regulation will continue to be influenced by trends in international migration, concerns about global health equity, and the shifting demographics of the Canadian physician workforce. Implications for future policy development in the complex landscape of medical education and practice are discussed. PMID:28344705

Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

2018-04-01

Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

An Analysis of AAFES and Its Relevance to the Future of the Army and Air Force

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-12

benefits of this organization and are there any viable alternatives? Background and Significance AAFES provides retail goods and services to a select...relative to cost, benefit , and alternative options. Assumptions This study is based on the assumptions that AAFES and the MWR programs of the Army...AAFES is a joint Army and Air Force non-appropriated fund instrumentality (NAFI) charged with operating retail and service activities for the benefit

A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR FORECASTING HYDROLOGIC CHANGE

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

A System Analysis for Determining Alternative Technological Issues for the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Magistrale, V. J.; Small, J.

1967-01-01

A systems engineering methodology is provided, by which future technological ventures may be examined utilizing particular national, corporate, or individual value judgments. Three matrix analyses are presented. The first matrix is concerned with the effect of technology on population increase, war, poverty, health, resources, and prejudice. The second matrix explores an analytical technique for determining the relative importance of different areas of technology. The third matrix explores how an individual or corporate entity may determine how its capability may be used for future technological opportunities. No conclusions are presented since primary effort has been placed on the methodology of determining future technological issues.

Value of information analysis optimizing future trial design from a pilot study on catheter securement devices.

PubMed

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Reynolds, Heather; Gordon, Louisa G; Rickard, Claire M; Scuffham, Paul A

2014-12-01

Value of information analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the standard hypothesis testing approach, which is based on type I and type II errors, in determining sample sizes for randomized clinical trials. However, in addition to sample size calculation, value of information analysis can optimize other aspects of research design such as possible comparator arms and alternative follow-up times, by considering trial designs that maximize the expected net benefit of research, which is the difference between the expected cost of the trial and the expected value of additional information. To apply value of information methods to the results of a pilot study on catheter securement devices to determine the optimal design of a future larger clinical trial. An economic evaluation was performed using data from a multi-arm randomized controlled pilot study comparing the efficacy of four types of catheter securement devices: standard polyurethane, tissue adhesive, bordered polyurethane and sutureless securement device. Probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation was used to characterize uncertainty surrounding the study results and to calculate the expected value of additional information. To guide the optimal future trial design, the expected costs and benefits of the alternative trial designs were estimated and compared. Analysis of the value of further information indicated that a randomized controlled trial on catheter securement devices is potentially worthwhile. Among the possible designs for the future trial, a four-arm study with 220 patients/arm would provide the highest expected net benefit corresponding to 130% return-on-investment. The initially considered design of 388 patients/arm, based on hypothesis testing calculations, would provide lower net benefit with return-on-investment of 79%. Cost-effectiveness and value of information analyses were based on the data from a single pilot trial which might affect the accuracy of our uncertainty estimation. Another limitation was that different follow-up durations for the larger trial were not evaluated. The value of information approach allows efficient trial design by maximizing the expected net benefit of additional research. This approach should be considered early in the design of randomized clinical trials. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Comprehensive Study of the Tocks Island Lake Project and Alternatives. Part C. Analysis of Alternatives to Supply Resource Needs

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-06-01

TILP cannot be plugged into a network to meet service area needs irrespective of its location. The recreation issue is further complicated by the...Pennsylvania law, future structures in the floodway induced by this feeling of assurance from Tocks will be forbidden. The potential for devop - ment along the... networks in their presently suburbanized locations. There are, however, broad reaches of open spaces in both locations presently suitable for recreation

Data and Tools | Hydrogen and Fuel Cells | NREL

Science.gov Websites

researchers, developers, investors, and others interested in the viability, analysis, and development of , energy use, and emissions. Alternative Fuels Data Center Tools Collection of tools-calculators -makers reduce petroleum use. FASTSim: Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator Simulation tool that

Art's Pedagogical Paradox

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalin, Nadine M.

2014-01-01

This article contributes to conversations concerning art education futures through engaging alternative relations between art, education, and democracy that mobilize education as art projects associated with the "pedagogical turn" as sites of liminality and paradox. An analysis of the art project, Pedagogical Factory, is used to outline…

Societal cost-benefit analysis for soil remediation in The Netherlands.

PubMed

van Wezel, Annemarie P; Franken, Ron O G; Drissen, Eric; Versluijs, Kees C W; van den Berg, Reinier

2008-01-01

There is a political demand on the efficiency of environmental policy. Cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) can play a role in answering that demand. This societal CBA for nationwide soil remediation operations in The Netherlands distinguishes 4 alternatives for future investments. In the zero alternative government funding will be terminated. Besides this, 3 policy alternatives are distinguished that are government financed. Soil remediation benefits human health, the drinking water supply, housing, perceptions, and the ecosystem. Soil remediation also answers the concerns of the Dutch population. The benefits to health (exposure to cadmium, lead, and carcinogens), drinking water supply, and housing are expressed in monetary terms. The extent that benefits equal the money spent depends partly on the value-loaded choice for the discount rate. Use of the current discount rate of 4% will mean a slightly negative balance whichever policy alternative is chosen. Focusing on nonmoneterized benefits, such as ecology, can cause the scales to tip in another direction. Using a lower discount rate will make future benefits, such as health and drinking water supply, more important. If the discount rate drops to 2% or less, all policy alternatives lead to a positive balance. Predominantly, the health benefits that are veiled in uncertainty can become a reason for applying a surcharge and, in turn, a higher discount rate. In that case, each of the alternatives will result in a net negative balance.

SF6-alternative gases for application in gas-insulated switchgear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xingwen; Zhao, Hu; Murphy, Anthony B.

2018-04-01

The environmental problems caused by greenhouse gases have received unprecedented attention. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), which is the preferred gas for use in gas-insulated switchgear (circuit breakers, disconnect switches, etc. for high-voltage electrical circuits), has a very high global warming potential, and there is a large international effort to find alternative gases. Recently, this effort has made important progress, with promising alternative gases being identified and tested. An overview, in particular the current state of the art, of the study of SF6-alternative gases is presented in the paper. The review focuses on the application of the SF6-alternative gases in gas-insulated switchgear, with detailed analysis of calculations and measurements of their basic physical properties, dielectric strengths, and arc-quenching capabilities. Finally, a discussion of and perspectives on current research and future research directions are presented.

Mystic mountain: an educational alternative futures wildland planning game

Treesearch

Edward C. Thor; James L. Creighton

1978-01-01

Alternative futures planning is a generic name for a number of planning approaches which recognize that the future is uncertain. There is not one future, preordained and universally known, but rather a variety of possible futures, any one of which may occur. Mystic Mountain is an educational game which teaches wildland planners and managers important concepts in...

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1. Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M. M.; Baldwin, S.; DeMeo, E.

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Victoria Katherine

In years past, aircraft conceptual design centered around creating a feasible aircraft that could be built and could fly the required missions. More recently, aircraft viability entered into conceptual design, allowing that the product's potential to be profitable should also be examined early in the design process. While examining an aerospace system's feasibility and viability early in the design process is extremely important, it is also important to examine system risk. In traditional aerospace systems risk analysis, risk is examined from the perspective of performance, schedule, and cost. Recently, safety and reliability analysis have been brought forward in the design process to also be examined during late conceptual and early preliminary design. While these analyses work as designed, existing risk analysis methods and techniques are not designed to examine an aerospace system's external operating environment and the risks present there. A new method has been developed here to examine, during the early part of concept design, the risk associated with not meeting assumptions about the system's external operating environment. The risks are examined in five categories: employment, culture, government and politics, economics, and technology. The risks are examined over a long time-period, up to the system's entire life cycle. The method consists of eight steps over three focus areas. The first focus area is Problem Setup. During problem setup, the problem is defined and understood to the best of the decision maker's ability. There are four steps in this area, in the following order: Establish the Need, Scenario Development, Identify Solution Alternatives, and Uncertainty and Risk Identification. There is significant iteration between steps two through four. Focus area two is Modeling and Simulation. In this area the solution alternatives and risks are modeled, and a numerical value for risk is calculated. A risk mitigation model is also created. The four steps involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

Alternative splicing and trans-splicing events revealed by analysis of the Bombyx mori transcriptome

PubMed Central

Shao, Wei; Zhao, Qiong-Yi; Wang, Xiu-Ye; Xu, Xin-Yan; Tang, Qing; Li, Muwang; Li, Xuan; Xu, Yong-Zhen

2012-01-01

Alternative splicing and trans-splicing events have not been systematically studied in the silkworm Bombyx mori. Here, the silkworm transcriptome was analyzed by RNA-seq. We identified 320 novel genes, modified 1140 gene models, and found thousands of alternative splicing and 58 trans-splicing events. Studies of three SR proteins show that both their alternative splicing patterns and mRNA products are conserved from insect to human, and one isoform of Srsf6 with a retained intron is expressed sex-specifically in silkworm gonads. Trans-splicing of mod(mdg4) in silkworm was experimentally confirmed. We identified integrations from a common 5′-gene with 46 newly identified alternative 3′-exons that are located on both DNA strands over a 500-kb region. Other trans-splicing events in B. mori were predicted by bioinformatic analysis, in which 12 events were confirmed by RT-PCR, six events were further validated by chimeric SNPs, and two events were confirmed by allele-specific RT-PCR in F1 hybrids from distinct silkworm lines of JS and L10, indicating that trans-splicing is more widespread in insects than previously thought. Analysis of the B. mori transcriptome by RNA-seq provides valuable information of regulatory alternative splicing events. The conservation of splicing events across species and newly identified trans-splicing events suggest that B. mori is a good model for future studies. PMID:22627775

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2. Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad; Bain, Richard; Chapman, Jamie

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3. End-Use Electricity Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hostick, Donna; Belzer, David B.; Hadley, Stanton W.

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems. Operations and Transmission Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Ela, Erik; Hein, Jeff

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Multi-criteria analysis for municipal solid waste management in a Brazilian metropolitan area.

PubMed

Santos, Simone Machado; Silva, Maisa Mendonça; Melo, Renata Maciel; Gavazza, Savia; Florencio, Lourdinha; Kato, Mario T

2017-10-15

The decision-making process involved in municipal solid waste management (MSWM) must consider more than just financial aspects, which makes it a difficult task in developing countries. The Recife Metropolitan Region (RMR) in the Northeast of Brazil faces a MSWM problem that has been ongoing since the 1970s, with no common solution. In order to direct short-term solutions, three MSWM alternatives were outlined for the RMR, considering the current and future situations, the time and cost involved and social/environmental criteria. A multi-criteria approach, based on the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), was proposed to rank these alternatives. The alternative that included two private landfill sites and seven transfer, sorting and composting stations was confirmed as the most suitable and stable option for short-term MSWM, considering the two scenarios for the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to support the robustness of the results. The implementation of separate collections would minimize the amount of waste buried, while maximizing the useful life of landfill sites and increasing the timeframe of the alternative. Overall, the multi-criteria analysis was helpful and accurate during the alternative selection process, considering the similarities and restrictions of each option, which can lead to difficulties during the decision-making process.

Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it

2012-01-15

This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of howmore » the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.« less

Effect of climate change on shoreline shifts at a straight and continuous coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajasree, B. R.; Deo, M. C.; Sheela Nair, L.

2016-12-01

The prediction of the rate of shoreline shifts as well as that of erosion and accretion over future at a given location is traditionally done on the basis of analysis of past wave data. However under the changing climate affected by global warming it is better done considering the projected wave conditions over the future. The same is demonstrated in this work with respect to a stretch of coastline at 'Udupi' along the west coast of India. The shoreline changes in the past are first determined with the help of historic satellite images. A numerical shoreline model is later run on the basis of wave simulations of past 35 years as well as future 35 years. The latter wave conditions are obtained from wind projections corresponding to a high resolution regional climate model run for a moderate pathway of global warming. Alternatively prediction of the changes over future 35 years is also made by using the soft computing tool of artificial neural network (ANN) trained with the help of past satellite images. The results indicate that the area under consideration presently undergoes considerable erosion and this process will accelerate in future. The volume of annual sediment transport will also substantially increase over the future. The alternative computations made with the help of an ANN confirmed the future rising trend of erosion, albeit at smaller rate than the numerically predicted one.

The effect of alternative seismotectonic models on PSHA results - a sensitivity study for two sites in Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avital, Matan; Kamai, Ronnie; Davis, Michael; Dor, Ory

2018-02-01

We present a full probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) sensitivity analysis for two sites in southern Israel - one in the near field of a major fault system and one farther away. The PSHA analysis is conducted for alternative source representations, using alternative model parameters for the main seismic sources, such as slip rate and Mmax, among others. The analysis also considers the effect of the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) on the hazard results. In this way, the two types of epistemic uncertainty - modelling uncertainty and parametric uncertainty - are treated and addressed. We quantify the uncertainty propagation by testing its influence on the final calculated hazard, such that the controlling knowledge gaps are identified and can be treated in future studies. We find that current practice in Israel, as represented by the current version of the building code, grossly underestimates the hazard, by approximately 40 % in short return periods (e.g. 10 % in 50 years) and by as much as 150 % in long return periods (e.g. 10E-5). The analysis shows that this underestimation is most probably due to a combination of factors, including source definitions as well as the GMPE used for analysis.

Monte Carlo simulation: Its status and future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murtha, J.A.

1997-04-01

Monte Carlo simulation is a statistics-based analysis tool that yields probability-vs.-value relationships for key parameters, including oil and gas reserves, capital exposure, and various economic yardsticks, such as net present value (NPV) and return on investment (ROI). Monte Carlo simulation is a part of risk analysis and is sometimes performed in conjunction with or as an alternative to decision [tree] analysis. The objectives are (1) to define Monte Carlo simulation in a more general context of risk and decision analysis; (2) to provide some specific applications, which can be interrelated; (3) to respond to some of the criticisms; (4) tomore » offer some cautions about abuses of the method and recommend how to avoid the pitfalls; and (5) to predict what the future has in store.« less

Hazardous fuel treatments, suppression cost impacts, and risk mitigation

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Michael S. Hand; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Nicole M. Vaillant; Darek J. Nalle

2013-01-01

Land management agencies face uncertain tradeoffs regarding investments in preparedness and fuels management versus future suppression costs and impacts to valued resources and assets. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatments allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, and can facilitate tradeoff analysis...

Development of a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tool in R for parametrization of the APEX model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic models are used to simulate the responses of agricultural systems to different inputs and management strategies to identify alternative management practices to cope up with future climate and/or geophysical changes. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) is a model develope...

Economic analysis of tree improvement: A status report

Treesearch

George F. Dutrow

1974-01-01

Review of current literature establishes that most authors believe that tree improvement expands production, although some point out drawbacks and alternatives. Both softwood and hardwood improvement programs have been analyzed. The authors used various models, economic assumptions, and standards of measurement, but available data were limited. Future models shouId...

Fueling the dragon: Alternative Chinese oil futures and their implications for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eberling, George G.

This study examines how Chinese oil energy will likely shape future Sino-American relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency. The study will list and describe three possible Chinese oil energy futures or scenarios (Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus and Cooperative Surplus) using Scenario Analysis to subsequently estimate their associated likelihoods using the PRINCE forecasting system and discuss and evaluate their strategic implications for the United States. Further, this study will determine the most likely oil energy future or scenario. Finally, the study will list and describe the most likely United States political, economic and/or military policy responses for each future or scenario. The study contributes to the literature on Chinese and United States energy security, foreign policy, political economy and political risk analysis by showing how China will most likely address its growing oil energy dependence and by determining what will be the most likely U.S. foreign policy consequences based on the most current literature available on energy security and foreign policy.

Multi-path transportation futures study: Results from Phase 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Phil; Singh, Margaret; Plotkin, Steve

2007-03-09

This PowerPoint briefing provides documentation and details for Phase 1 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study, which compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles to 2050. Phase I, completed in 2006, was a scoping study, aimed at identifying key analytic issues and constructing a study design. The Phase 1 analysis included an evaluation of several pathways and scenarios; however, these analyses were limited in number and scope and were designed to be preliminary.

Preparing for what might happen: An episodic specificity induction impacts the generation of alternative future events.

PubMed

Jing, Helen G; Madore, Kevin P; Schacter, Daniel L

2017-12-01

A critical adaptive feature of future thinking involves the ability to generate alternative versions of possible future events. However, little is known about the nature of the processes that support this ability. Here we examined whether an episodic specificity induction - brief training in recollecting details of a recent experience that selectively impacts tasks that draw on episodic retrieval - (1) boosts alternative event generation and (2) changes one's initial perceptions of negative future events. In Experiment 1, an episodic specificity induction significantly increased the number of alternative positive outcomes that participants generated to a series of standardized negative events, compared with a control induction not focused on episodic specificity. We also observed larger decreases in the perceived plausibility and negativity of the original events in the specificity condition, where participants generated more alternative outcomes, relative to the control condition. In Experiment 2, we replicated and extended these findings using a series of personalized negative events. Our findings support the idea that episodic memory processes are involved in generating alternative outcomes to anticipated future events, and that boosting the number of alternative outcomes is related to subsequent changes in the perceived plausibility and valence of the original events, which may have implications for psychological well-being. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Methane - fuel for the future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McGeer, P.; Durbin, E.

1982-01-01

The 20 invited papers presented at the world conference on alternative fuel entitled 'Methane - fuel for the future' form the basis of this book. Papers discuss: the availability of alternative fuels (natural gas, biomass conversion to methane, methane from coal conversion); technological adaptions for alternative fuels (e.g. natural gas fueled engines, methane and diesel engines); commercial experience with alternative fuel programs. (e.g. retailing of methane); and some national programs for alternative fuels. One paper has been abstracted separately.

Global analysis of exon creation versus loss and the role of alternative splicing in 17 vertebrate genomes

PubMed Central

Alekseyenko, Alexander V.; Kim, Namshin; Lee, Christopher J.

2007-01-01

Association of alternative splicing (AS) with accelerated rates of exon evolution in some organisms has recently aroused widespread interest in its role in evolution of eukaryotic gene structure. Previous studies were limited to analysis of exon creation or lost events in mouse and/or human only. Our multigenome approach provides a way for (1) distinguishing creation and loss events on the large scale; (2) uncovering details of the evolutionary mechanisms involved; (3) estimating the corresponding rates over a wide range of evolutionary times and organisms; and (4) assessing the impact of AS on those evolutionary rates. We use previously unpublished independent analyses of alternative splicing in five species (human, mouse, dog, cow, and zebrafish) from the ASAP database combined with genomewide multiple alignment of 17 genomes to analyze exon creation and loss of both constitutively and alternatively spliced exons in mammals, fish, and birds. Our analysis provides a comprehensive database of exon creation and loss events over 360 million years of vertebrate evolution, including tens of thousands of alternative and constitutive exons. We find that exon inclusion level is inversely related to the rate of exon creation. In addition, we provide a detailed in-depth analysis of mechanisms of exon creation and loss, which suggests that a large fraction of nonrepetitive created exons are results of ab initio creation from purely intronic sequences. Our data indicate an important role for alternative splicing in creation of new exons and provide a useful novel database resource for future genome evolution research. PMID:17369312

Environmental analysis of Lower Pueblo/Lower Los Alamos Canyon, Los Alamos, New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferenbaugh, R.W.; Buhl, T.E.; Stoker, A.K.

1994-12-01

The radiological survey of the former radioactive waste treatment plant site (TA-45), Acid Canyon, Pueblo Canyon, and Los Alamos Canyon found residual contamination at the site itself and in the channel and banks of Acid, Pueblo, and lower Los Alamos Canyons all the way to the Rio Grande. The largest reservoir of residual radioactivity is in lower Pueblo Canyon, which is on DOE property. However, residual radioactivity does not exceed proposed cleanup criteria in either lower Pueblo or lower Los Alamos Canyons. The three alternatives proposed are (1) to take no action, (2) to construct a sediment trap in lowermore » Pueblo Canyon to prevent further transport of residual radioactivity onto San Ildefonso Indian Pueblo land, and (3) to clean the residual radioactivity from the canyon system. Alternative 2, to cleanup the canyon system, is rejected as a viable alternative. Thousands of truckloads of sediment would have to be removed and disposed of, and this effort is unwarranted by the low levels of contamination present. Residual radioactivity levels, under either present conditions or projected future conditions, will not result in significant radiation doses to persons exposed. Modeling efforts show that future transport activity will not result in any residual radioactivity concentrations higher than those already existing. Thus, although construction of a sediment trap in lower Pueblo Canyon is a viable alternative, this effort also is unwarranted, and the no-action alternative is the preferred alternative.« less

7 CFR 1710.206 - Approval requirements for load forecasts prepared pursuant to approved load forecast work plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... effects on electric revenues caused by competition from alternative energy sources or other electric... uncertainty or alternative futures that may determine the borrower's actual loads. Examples of economic... basis. Include alternative futures, as applicable. This summary shall be designed to accommodate the...

7 CFR 1710.206 - Approval requirements for load forecasts prepared pursuant to approved load forecast work plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... effects on electric revenues caused by competition from alternative energy sources or other electric... uncertainty or alternative futures that may determine the borrower's actual loads. Examples of economic... basis. Include alternative futures, as applicable. This summary shall be designed to accommodate the...

7 CFR 1710.206 - Approval requirements for load forecasts prepared pursuant to approved load forecast work plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... effects on electric revenues caused by competition from alternative energy sources or other electric... uncertainty or alternative futures that may determine the borrower's actual loads. Examples of economic... basis. Include alternative futures, as applicable. This summary shall be designed to accommodate the...

7 CFR 1710.206 - Approval requirements for load forecasts prepared pursuant to approved load forecast work plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... effects on electric revenues caused by competition from alternative energy sources or other electric... uncertainty or alternative futures that may determine the borrower's actual loads. Examples of economic... basis. Include alternative futures, as applicable. This summary shall be designed to accommodate the...

Analysis of market penetration of renewable energy alternatives under uncertain and carbon constrained world

EPA Science Inventory

Future energy prices and supply, availability and costs can have a significant impact on how fast and cost effectively we could abate carbon emissions. Two-staged decision making methods embedded in U.S. EPA's MARKAL modeling system will be utilized to find the most robust mitig...

Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

Treesearch

Evan H Campbell Grant; Erin Muths; Rachel A Katz; Stefano Canessa; Michael J Adams; Jennifer R Ballard; Lee Berger; Cheryl J Briggs; Jeremy TH Coleman; Matthew J Gray; M Camille Harris; Reid N Harris; Blake Hossack; Kathryn P Huyvaert; Jonathan Kolby; Karen R Lips; Robert E Lovich; Hamish I McCallum; Joseph R Mendelson; Priya Nanjappa; Deanna H Olson; Jenny G Powers; Katherine LD Richgels; Robin E Russell; Benedikt R Schmidt; Annemarieke Spitzen-van der Sluijs; Mary Kay Watry; Douglas C Woodhams; C LeAnn White

2017-01-01

Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts...

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cluster analysis of water-quality data for Lake Sakakawea, Audubon Lake, and McClusky Canal, central North Dakota, 1990-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.

2006-01-01

As a result of the Dakota Water Resources Act of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior, identified eight water-supply alternatives (including a no-action alternative) to meet future water needs in portions of the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin. Of those alternatives, four include the interbasin transfer of water from the Missouri River Basin to the Red River Basin. Three of the interbasin transfer alternatives would use the McClusky Canal, located in central North Dakota, to transport the water. Therefore, the water quality of the McClusky Canal and the sources of its water, Lake Sakakawea and Audubon Lake, is of interest to water-quality stakeholders. The Bureau of Reclamation collected water-quality samples at 23 sites on Lake Sakakawea, Audubon Lake, and the McClusky Canal system from 1990 through 2003. Physical properties and water-quality constituents from these samples were summarized and analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey using hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis (HACA). HACA separated the samples into related clusters, or groups. These groups were examined for statistical significance and relation to structure of the McClusky Canal system. Statistically, the sample groupings found using HACA were significantly different from each other and appear to result from spatial and temporal water-quality differences corresponding with different sections of the canal and different operational conditions. Future operational changes of the canal system may justify additional water-quality sampling to characterize possible water-quality changes.

Interim Columbia and Snake rivers flow improvement measures for salmon: Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-03-01

Public comments are sought on this final SEIS, which supplements the 1992 Columbia River Salmon Flow Measures Options Analysis (OA)/Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). The Corps of Engineers, in cooperation with the Bonneville Power Administration and the Bureau of Reclamation proposes five alternatives to improve flows of water in the lower Columbia-Snake rivers in 1993 and future years to assist the migration of juvenile and adult anadromous fish past eight hydropower dams. These are: (1) Without Project (no action) Alternative, (2) the 1992 Operation, (3) the 1992 Operation with Libby/Hungry Horse Sensitivity, (4) a Modified 1992 Operation with Improvements to Salmonmore » Flows from Dworshak, and (5) a Modified 1992 Operation with Upper Snake Sensitivity. Alternative 4, Modified 1992 Operations, has been identified as the preferred alternative.« less

Using scenario analysis to determine managed care strategy.

PubMed

Krentz, S E; Gish, R S

2000-09-01

In today's volatile healthcare environment, traditional planning tools are inadequate to guide financial managers of provider organizations in developing managed care strategies. These tools often disregard the uncertainty surrounding market forces such as employee benefit structure, the future of Medicare managed care, and the impact of consumer behavior. Scenario analysis overcomes this limitation by acknowledging the uncertain healthcare environment and articulating a set of plausible alternative futures, thus supplying financial executives with the perspective to craft strategies that can improve the market position of their organizations. By being alert for trigger points that might signal the rise of a specific scenario, financial managers can increase their preparedness for changes in market forces.

Using expert judgments to explore robust alternatives for forest management under climate change.

PubMed

McDaniels, Timothy; Mills, Tamsin; Gregory, Robin; Ohlson, Dan

2012-12-01

We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely to achieve objectives, over a range of uncertainties. The intent is to develop an approach that is more practical in terms of data and analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature and experience with probability elicitation and judgmental forecasting. The context involves decisions about managing forest lands that have been severely affected by mountain pine beetles in British Columbia, a pest infestation that is climate-exacerbated. A forest management decision was developed as the basis for the context, objectives, and alternatives for land management actions, to frame and condition the judgments. A wide range of climate forecasts, taken to represent the 10-90% levels on cumulative distributions for future climate, were developed to condition judgments. An elicitation instrument was developed, tested, and revised to serve as the basis for eliciting probabilistic three-point distributions regarding the performance of selected alternatives, over a set of relevant objectives, in the short and long term. The elicitations were conducted in a workshop comprising 14 regional forest management specialists. We employed the concept of stochastic dominance to help identify robust alternatives. We used extensive sensitivity analysis to explore the patterns in the judgments, and also considered the preferred alternatives for each individual expert. The results show that two alternatives that are more flexible than the current policies are judged more likely to perform better than the current alternatives on average in terms of stochastic dominance. The results suggest judgmental approaches to robust decision making deserve greater attention and testing. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Corrective Action Decision Document for Corrective Action Unit 204: Storage Bunkers, Nevada Test Site, Nevada: Revision 0, Including Errata Sheet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office

2004-04-01

This Corrective Action Decision Document identifies the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office's corrective action alternative recommendation for each of the corrective action sites (CASs) within Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 204: Storage Bunkers, Nevada Test Site (NTS), Nevada, under the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order. An evaluation of analytical data from the corrective action investigation, review of current and future operations at each CAS, and a detailed comparative analysis of potential corrective action alternatives were used to determine the appropriate corrective action for each CAS. There are six CASs in CAU 204, which aremore » all located between Areas 1, 2, 3, and 5 on the NTS. The No Further Action alternative was recommended for CASs 01-34-01, 02-34-01, 03-34-01, and 05-99-02; and a Closure in Place with Administrative Controls recommendation was the preferred corrective action for CASs 05-18-02 and 05-33-01. These alternatives were judged to meet all requirements for the technical components evaluated as well as applicable state and federal regulations for closure of the sites and will eliminate potential future exposure pathways to the contaminated media at CAU 204.« less

ENGINEERING STUDY FOR THE 200 AREA EFFLUENT TREATMENT FACILITY (ETF) SECONDARY WASTE TREATMENT OF PROJECTED FUTURE WASTE FEEDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LUECK, K.J.

2004-10-18

This report documents an engineering study conducted to evaluate alternatives for treating secondary waste in the secondary treatment train (STT) of the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). The study evaluates ETF STT treatment alternatives and recommends preferred alternatives for meeting the projected future missions of the ETF. The preferred alternative(s) will process projected future ETF influents to produce a solid waste acceptable for final disposal on the Hanford Site. The main text of this report summarizes the ETF past and projected operations, lists the assumptions about projected operations that provide the basis for the engineering evaluation, andmore » summarizes the evaluation process. The evaluation process includes identification of available modifications to the current ETF process, screens those modifications for technical viability, evaluates the technically viable alternatives, and provides conclusions and recommendations based on that evaluation.« less

Information Switching Processor (ISP) contention analysis and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shyy, D.; Inukai, T.

1993-01-01

Future satellite communications, as a viable means of communications and an alternative to terrestrial networks, demand flexibility and low end-user cost. On-board switching/processing satellites potentially provide these features, allowing flexible interconnection among multiple spot beams, direct to the user communications services using very small aperture terminals (VSAT's), independent uplink and downlink access/transmission system designs optimized to user's traffic requirements, efficient TDM downlink transmission, and better link performance. A flexible switching system on the satellite in conjunction with low-cost user terminals will likely benefit future satellite network users.

Parametric Analysis of Surveillance Quality and Level and Quality of Intent Information and Their Impact on Conflict Detection Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Butler, Ricky W.; Hagen, George E.; Maddalon, Jeffrey M.; Lewis, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

A loss-of-separation (LOS) is said to occur when two aircraft are spatially too close to one another. A LOS is the fundamental unsafe event to be avoided in air traffic management and conflict detection (CD) is the function that attempts to predict these LOS events. In general, the effectiveness of conflict detection relates to the overall safety and performance of an air traffic management concept. An abstract, parametric analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of surveillance quality, level of intent information, and quality of intent information on conflict detection performance. The data collected in this analysis can be used to estimate the conflict detection performance under alternative future scenarios or alternative allocations of the conflict detection function, based on the quality of the surveillance and intent information under those conditions.Alternatively, this data could also be used to estimate the surveillance and intent information quality required to achieve some desired CD performance as part of the design of a new separation assurance system.

Analysis of space systems for the space disposal of nuclear waste follow-on study. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The impact on space systems of three alternative waste mixes was evaluated as part of an effort to investigate the disposal of certain high-level nuclear wastes in space as a complement to mined geologic repositories. A brief overview of the study background, objectives, scope, approach and guidelines, and limitations is presented. The effects of variations in waste mixes on space system concepts were studied in order to provide data for determining relative total system risk benefits resulting from space disposal of the alternative waste mixes. Overall objectives of the NASA-DOE sustaining-level study program are to investigate space disposal concepts which can provide information to support future nuclear waste terminal storage programmatic decisions and to maintain a low level of research activity in this area to provide a baseline for future development should a decision be made to increase the emphasis on this option.

Reflective questions in health counseling.

PubMed

Poskiparta, M; Kettunen, T; Liimatainen, L

1998-09-01

This study explores questions that nurses ask patients in order to awaken reflection on their health behavior in health counseling. Thirty-eight counseling situations were videotaped in a hospital. The data were analyzed using conversation analysis which was adapted for the purpose of this study. Nonverbal communication supported speech and was interpreted alongside it. This study found that nurses used only a few reflective questions, most of which were future-oriented or introduced hypotheses. In a nonreflective discussion, nurses used only check-up and alternative questions to get information about patients' illnesses and health care measures. Findings indicated that reflective conversation began with check-up questions about patients' immediate situation, followed by questions about patients' feelings in the past, present, or future. On the third level of questioning, the structure might vary between embedded questions, check-up, alternative, or feeling questions. Nonverbal communication supported the discussion. Reflective questions tended to ensure patient-centered conversation and might improve the effectiveness of health counselling.

Biology School Textbooks and Their Role for Students' Success in Learning Sciences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pop-Pacurar, Irina; Ciascai, Liliana

2010-01-01

What is the quality of the Romanian biology textbooks? The article gives answers to this question by watching the evolution of a textbook and by suggesting an exercise for analyzing and assessing the alternative biology textbooks. The opportunity of this analysis has been offered to students, future teachers of biology, around the time when they…

Securing the Human: The Journey Toward World Law and Justice. The Whole Earth Papers, No. 14.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mische, Patricia; And Others

The document contains a variety of papers that examine the linkages between local concerns and global concerns and explore alternative world futures. An introductory article, "Securing the Human," discusses how the world community needs to develop adequate means to deal with crimes against humans. These means include sound analysis, spiritual…

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs)

Cost-Benefit Analysis for Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Pattie

2007-01-01

NASA and Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) have similar missions and therefore similar facilities and structures in similar environments. The standard practice for protecting metallic substrates in atmospheric environments is the application of an applied coating system. The most common topcoats used in coating systems are polyurethanes that contain isocyanates. Isocyanates are classified as potential human carcinogens and are known to cause cancer in animals. The primary objective of this effort was to demonstrate and validate alternatives to aliphatic isocyanate polyurethanes resulting in one or more isocyanate-free coatings qualified for use at AFSPC and NASA installations participating in this project. This Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) quantifies the estimated capital and process costs of coating alternatives and cost savings relative to the current coatings. The estimates in this CBA are to be used for assessing the relative merits of the selected alternatives. The actual economic effects at any specific facility will depend on the alternative material or technology implemented, the number of actual applications converted, future workloads, and other factors . The participants initially considered eighteen (18) alternative coatings as described in the Potential Alternatives Report entitled Potential Alternatives Report for Validation of Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes, prepared by ITB. Of those, 8 alternatives were selected for testing in accordance with the Joint Test Protocol entitled Joint Test Protocol for Validation of Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes, and the Field Test Plan entitled Field Evaluations Test Plan for Validation of Alternatives 10 Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes, both of which were prepared by ITB. A joint Test Report entitled Joint Test Report for Validation of Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes, prepared by ITB, documents the results of the laboratory and field testing, as well as any test modifications made during the execution of the testing. The coatings selected for evaluation in this CBA are shown in the table below. Only one control coating system is considered in this analysis. These coatings were either downselected for Phase II or performed well enough to be included in the Qualified Products List in the NASA technical standard NASA-STD-5008, Protective Coating of Carbon Steel, Stainless Steel, and Aluminum on Launch Structures, Facilities, and Ground Support Equipment.

World Trends and Alternative Futures. Open Grants Papers No. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McHale, John; Cordell, Magda

We are now at a stage in human global development in which the continuous review and assessment of the long-range future implications of our past and present actions becomes crucially important for the survival of human society. This report includes a synoptic view of world trends and alternative futures. The first and major portion of the…

FutureWorks: An Alternative Avenue to Success. Practitioner Research Briefs, 1999-2000 Report Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cochran, Elizabeth

A teacher who teaches General Educational Development preparation to at-risk teenagers in a nonprofit alternative education program called FutureWorks conducted a study to identify those elements of FutureWorks that keep students coming to the program. The study included the following data collection activities: a consensus-building activity to…

Mapping letters from the future: exploring narrative processes of imagining the future.

PubMed

Sools, Anneke M; Tromp, Thijs; Mooren, Jan H

2015-03-01

This article uses Letters from the Future (a health promotion instrument) to explore the human capacity of imagining the future. From a narrative perspective, letters from the future are considered to be indicative of a variety of forms through which human beings construct and understand their future selves and worlds. This is consistent with an interpretive approach to understanding the human mind, which offers an alternative for the current dominant causal-explanatory approach in psychology. On the basis of qualitative analysis of 480 letters from the future, collected online from a diverse group of Dutch and German persons, we first identified five narrative processes operating in the letters: imagining, evaluating, orienting, expressing emotions and engaging in dialogue. Second, using comparative analysis, we identified six types of how these processes are organized in the letters as a whole. These types differ regarding functionality (which of the five processes was dominant); temporality (prospective, retrospective and present-oriented); the extent to which a path between present and future was described; and the vividness of the imagination. We suggest that these types can be used in narrative health practice as 'pathways' to locate where letter writers are on their path to imagine the future, rather than as a normative taxonomy. Future research should focus on how these pathways can be used to navigate to health and well-being. © The Author(s) 2015.

A practical guide to value of information analysis.

PubMed

Wilson, Edward C F

2015-02-01

Value of information analysis is a quantitative method to estimate the return on investment in proposed research projects. It can be used in a number of ways. Funders of research may find it useful to rank projects in terms of the expected return on investment from a variety of competing projects. Alternatively, trialists can use the principles to identify the efficient sample size of a proposed study as an alternative to traditional power calculations, and finally, a value of information analysis can be conducted alongside an economic evaluation as a quantitative adjunct to the 'future research' or 'next steps' section of a study write up. The purpose of this paper is to present a brief introduction to the methods, a step-by-step guide to calculation and a discussion of issues that arise in their application to healthcare decision making. Worked examples are provided in the accompanying online appendices as Microsoft Excel spreadsheets.

Excreta Sampling as an Alternative to In Vivo Measurements at the Hanford Site.

PubMed

Carbaugh, Eugene H; Antonio, Cheryl L; Lynch, Timothy P

2015-08-01

The capabilities of indirect radiobioassay by urine and fecal sample analysis were compared with the direct radiobioassay methods of whole body counting and lung counting for the most common radionuclides and inhalation exposure scenarios encountered by Hanford workers. Radionuclides addressed by in vivo measurement included 137Cs, 60Co, 154Eu, and 241Am as an indicator for plutonium mixtures. The same radionuclides were addressed using gamma energy analysis of urine samples, augmented by radiochemistry and alpha spectrometry methods for plutonium in urine and fecal samples. It was concluded that in vivo whole body counting and lung counting capability should be maintained at the Hanford Site for the foreseeable future, however, urine and fecal sample analysis could provide adequate, though degraded, monitoring capability for workers as a short-term alternative, should in vivo capability be lost due to planned or unplanned circumstances.

Program Benefits Guidance: Analysis of Benefits Associated with Projects and Technologies Supported by the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Warner, Ethan; Sun, Yongling

The Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technologies Program (ARFVTP) supports a wide range of alternative, low-carbon fuel and vehicle projects in California. This report focuses on two types of ARFVTP benefits. Expected benefits reflect successful deployment of vehicles and fuels supported through program projects. Market transformation benefits represent benefits resulting from project influences on future market conditions to accelerated technology adoption rates. Data collected directly from ARFVTP projects funded from 2009 to first quarter 2014 are used as inputs to the benefits analysis, where possible. Expected benefit estimation methods rely primarily upon project-level data and result in year single-pointmore » estimates within the 2011 to 2025 analysis period. Results suggest that the 178 projects evaluated for expected benefits, representing an investment of $351.3 million in ARFVTP funds, could result in a reduction in petroleum fuel use by 236 million gallons per year and greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 1.7 million metric tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) per year by 2025. Market transformation benefits are described as accruing in addition to expected benefits. They are inherently more uncertain and theoretical than expected benefits, and are therefore reported as high and low ranges, with results suggesting reductions of 1.1 MMTCO2e to 2.5 MMTCO2e per year in GHG reductions and 102 million to 330 million gallons per year in petroleum fuel reductions by 2025. Taking both benefit types into account, results suggest that ARFVTP projects have the potential to make substantial progress toward meeting California's long-term GHG and petroleum fuel use reduction goals. As additional project data become available and market success with alternative and renewable fuels and vehicles grows, the analytic framework relied upon to develop these estimates will become more rigorous and will have a greater capacity to inform future ARFVTP activities.« less

Comparative genomic analysis of novel bacteriophages infecting Vibrio parahaemolyticus isolated from western and southern coastal areas of Korea.

PubMed

Yu, Junhyeok; Lim, Jeong-A; Kwak, Su-Jin; Park, Jong-Hyun; Chang, Hyun-Joo

2018-05-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus, a foodborne pathogen, has become resistant to antibiotics. Therefore, alternative bio-control agents such bacteriophage are urgently needed for its control. Six novel bacteriophages specific to V. parahaemolyticus (vB_VpaP_KF1~2, vB_VpaS_KF3~6) were characterized at the molecular level in this study. Genomic similarity analysis revealed that these six bacteriophages could be divided into two groups with different genomic features, phylogenetic grouping, and morphologies. Two groups of bacteriophages had their own genes with different mechanisms for infection, assembly, and metabolism. Our results could be used as a future reference to study phage genomics or apply phages in future bio-control studies.

Net energy analysis: Powerful tool for selecting electric power options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baron, S.

A number of net energy analysis studies have been conducted in recent years for electric power production from coal, oil and uranium fuels; synthetic fuels from coal and oil shale; and heat and electric power from solar energy. This technique is an excellent indicator of investment costs, environmental impact and potential economic competitiveness of alternative electric power systems for energy planners from the Eastern European countries considering future options. Energy conservation is also important to energy planners and the net energy analysis technique is an excellent accounting system on the extent of energy resource conservation. The author proposes to discuss the technique and to present the results of his studies and others in the field. The information supplied to the attendees will serve as a powerful tool to the energy planners considering their electric power options in the future.

The promise of a better group future: Cognitive alternatives increase students' self-efficacy and academic performance.

PubMed

Iyer, Aarti; Zhang, Airong; Jetten, Jolanda; Hao, Zhen; Cui, Lijuan

2017-12-01

Drawing on classic social identity theorizing (Tajfel, Differentiation between social groups: Studies in the social psychology of intergroup relations, London, UK, Academic Press, 1978), we propose that low-status minority group members' self-efficacy and performance on intellectual tasks can be enhanced by prompting them to believe in a better future for their group (i.e., increasing awareness of cognitive alternatives to the existing low-status position). Study 1 manipulated cognitive alternatives among 157 migrant workers' children in China, showing that self-efficacy was enhanced in the high compared to the low cognitive alternative condition. Study 2 extended this experimental finding among 114 migrant workers' children: Participants in the high cognitive alternative condition performed better on mathematics and attention tasks than did participants in the low cognitive alternative condition. Results highlight the power of believing in a better future for the collective as a means of enhancing self-efficacy and educational outcomes among members of disadvantaged groups. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Hydrogen production from solar energy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eisenstadt, M. M.; Cox, K. E.

1975-01-01

Three alternatives for hydrogen production from solar energy have been analyzed on both efficiency and economic grounds. The analysis shows that the alternative using solar energy followed by thermochemical decomposition of water to produce hydrogen is the optimum one. The other schemes considered were the direct conversion of solar energy to electricity by silicon cells and water electrolysis, and the use of solar energy to power a vapor cycle followed by electrical generation and electrolysis. The capital cost of hydrogen via the thermochemical alternative was estimated at $575/kW of hydrogen output or $3.15/million Btu. Although this cost appears high when compared with hydrogen from other primary energy sources or from fossil fuel, environmental and social costs which favor solar energy may prove this scheme feasible in the future.

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Assessment of the potential future market in Sweden for hydrogen as an energy carrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carleson, G.

Future hydrogen markets for the period 1980-2025 are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs for various manufacturing methods is estimated, and expected market shares in competition with alternative energy carriers are evaluated. A general scenario for economic and industrial development in Sweden for the given period was evaluated, showing the average increase in gross national product to become 1.6% per year. Three different energy scenarios were then developed: alternatives were based on nuclear energy, renewable indigenous energy sources, and the present energy situation with free access to imported natural or synthetic fuels. An analysis was made within each scenario of the competitiveness of hydrogen on both the demand and the supply of the following sectors: chemical industry, steel industry, peak power production, residential and commercial heating, and transportation. Costs were calculated for the production, storage and transmission of hydrogen according to technically feasible methods and were compared to those of alternative energy carriers. Health, environmental and societal implications were also considered. The market penetration of hydrogen in each sector was estimated, and the required investment capital was shown to be less than 4% of the national gross investment sum.

Energy storage and alternatives to improve train voltage on a mass transit system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, S. P.; Rorke, W. S.

1995-04-01

The wide separation of substations in the Bay Area Rapid Transit system's transbay tunnel contributes to voltage sag when power demand is high. In the future, expansions to the system will exacerbate this problem by increasing traffic density. Typically, this situation is remedied through the installation of additional substations to increase the system's power capacity. We have evaluated the efficacy of several alternatives to this approach - specifically, installation of an 8 megajoule energy storage system, modification of the existing substations, or reduction of the resistance of the running rails or the third rail. To support this analysis, we have developed a simple model of the traction power system in the tunnel. We have concluded that the storage system does not have sufficient capacity to deal with the expected voltage sags; in this application, the alternatives present more effective solutions. We have also investigated the potential impact of these system upgrades on expected future capital outlays by BART for traction power infrastructure additions. We have found that rail or substation upgrades may reduce the need for additional substations. These upgrades may also be effective on other parts of the BART system and on other traction power systems.

Theory and Techniques for Assessing the Demand and Supply of Outdoor Recreation in the United States

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell; John C. Bergstrom

1989-01-01

As the central analysis for the 1989 Renewable Resources planning Act Assessment, a household market model covering 37 recreational activities was computed for the United States. Equilibrium consumption and costs were estimated, as were likely future changes in consumption and costs in response to expected demand growth and alternative development and access policies...

Flexible engineering designs for urban water management in Lusaka, Zambia.

PubMed

Tembo, Lucy; Pathirana, Assela; van der Steen, Peter; Zevenbergen, Chris

2015-01-01

Urban water systems are often designed using deterministic single values as design parameters. Subsequently the different design alternatives are compared using a discounted cash flow analysis that assumes that all parameters remain as-predicted for the entire project period. In reality the future is unknown and at best a possible range of values for design parameters can be estimated. A Monte Carlo simulation could then be used to calculate the expected Net Present Value of project alternatives, as well as so-called target curves (cumulative frequency distribution of possible Net Present Values). The same analysis could be done after flexibilities were incorporated in the design, either by using decision rules to decide about the moment of capacity increase, or by buying Real Options (in this case land) to cater for potential capacity increases in the future. This procedure was applied to a sanitation and wastewater treatment case in Lusaka, Zambia. It included various combinations of on-site anaerobic baffled reactors and off-site waste stabilisation ponds. For the case study, it was found that the expected net value of wastewater treatment systems can be increased by 35-60% by designing a small flexible system with Real Options, rather than a large inflexible system.

Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions to Episodic Future Thinking: Scene Construction or Future Projection?

PubMed

Palombo, D J; Hayes, S M; Peterson, K M; Keane, M M; Verfaellie, M

2018-02-01

Previous research has shown that the medial temporal lobes (MTL) are more strongly engaged when individuals think about the future than about the present, leading to the suggestion that future projection drives MTL engagement. However, future thinking tasks often involve scene processing, leaving open the alternative possibility that scene-construction demands, rather than future projection, are responsible for the MTL differences observed in prior work. This study explores this alternative account. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we directly contrasted MTL activity in 1) high scene-construction and low scene-construction imagination conditions matched in future thinking demands and 2) future-oriented and present-oriented imagination conditions matched in scene-construction demands. Consistent with the alternative account, the MTL was more active for the high versus low scene-construction condition. By contrast, MTL differences were not observed when comparing the future versus present conditions. Moreover, the magnitude of MTL activation was associated with the extent to which participants imagined a scene but was not associated with the extent to which participants thought about the future. These findings help disambiguate which component processes of imagination specifically involve the MTL. Published by Oxford University Press 2016.

The relationship between an advanced avionic system architecture and the elimination of the need for an Avionics Intermediate Shop (AIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abraham, S. J.

While Avionics Intermediate Shops (AISs) have in the past been required for military aircraft, the emerging VLSI/VHSIC technology has given rise to the possibility of novel, well partitioned avionics system architectures that obviate the high spare parts costs that formerly prompted and justified the existence of an AIS. Future avionics may therefore be adequately and economically supported by a two-level maintenance system. Algebraic generalizations are presented for the analysis of the spares costs implications of alternative design partitioning schemes for future avionics.

Exploration decisions and firms in the mineral industries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.

1981-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how physical characteristics of deposits and results of past exploration enter future exploration decisions. A proposed decision model is presented that is consistent with a set of primitive probabilistic assumptions associated with deposit size distributions and discoverability. Analysis of optimal field exploration strategy showed the likely firm responses to alternative exploration taxes and effects on the distribution of future discoveries. Examination of the probabilistic elements of the decision model indicates that changes in firm expectations associated with the distribution of deposits cannot be totally offset by changes in economic variables. ?? 1981.

Alternate Methods in Refining the SLS Nozzle Plug Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burbank, Scott; Allen, Andrew

2013-01-01

Numerical analysis has shown that the SLS nozzle environmental barrier (nozzle plug) design is inadequate for the prelaunch condition, which consists of two dominant loads: 1) the main engines startup pressure and 2) an environmentally induced pressure. Efforts to reduce load conservatisms included a dynamic analysis which showed a 31% higher safety factor compared to the standard static analysis. The environmental load is typically approached with a deterministic method using the worst possible combinations of pressures and temperatures. An alternate probabilistic approach, utilizing the distributions of pressures and temperatures, resulted in a 54% reduction in the environmental pressure load. A Monte Carlo simulation of environmental load that used five years of historical pressure and temperature data supported the results of the probabilistic analysis, indicating the probabilistic load is reflective of a 3-sigma condition (1 in 370 probability). Utilizing the probabilistic load analysis eliminated excessive conservatisms and will prevent a future overdesign of the nozzle plug. Employing a similar probabilistic approach to other design and analysis activities can result in realistic yet adequately conservative solutions.

The Future Curriculum for School Science: What Can Be Learnt from the Past?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fensham, Peter J.

2016-01-01

In the 1960s, major reforms of the curriculum for school science education occurred that set a future for school science education that has been astonishingly robust at seeing off alternatives. This is not to say that there are not a number of good reasons for such alternative futures. The sciences, their relation to the socio-scientific context,…

Task 1 Report - Assessment of Data Availability to Inform Energy Planning Analyses: Energy Alternatives Study for the Lao People's Democratic Republic: Smart Infrastructure for the Mekong Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Nathan; Lopez, Anthony J.; Katz, Jessica R.

In an effort to address concerns such as energy security, reliability, affordability, and other objectives, the Government of the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is seeking to advance its expertise and experience in energy system analysis and planning to explore energy alternatives. Assessing the potential and alternatives for deploying energy technology options is often an early step - and, in most cases, an ongoing process - in planning for the development of the energy sector as a whole. Reliable and robust data are crucial to conducting these types of planning-related analyses in a transparent manner that builds confidence amongmore » power sector stakeholders and encourages investment in future energy project development and infrastructure opportunities. This report represents the first output of the Energy Alternatives Study for the Lao PDR (Energy Alternatives Study), a collaboration between Ministry of Energy and Mines and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the auspices of the Smart Infrastructure for the Mekong (SIM) program. The Energy Alternatives Study includes five tasks that build upon each other to meet the goal of the project. The report summarizes the availability, quality, and accessibility of data that serve as key inputs to energy planning activities for the power sector. The purpose of this data assessment is two-fold: 1. To facilitate the informed use of existing data by highlighting applications for these data as they relate to priority energy planning analyses; and 2. To inform future investments in energy data collection and management by identifying significant data gaps and providing guidance on how to fill these gaps.« less

Transactive System: Part II: Analysis of Two Pilot Transactive Systems using Foundational Theory and Metrics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lian, Jianming; Sun, Y.; Kalsi, Karanjit

This document is the second of a two-part report. Part 1 reviewed several demonstrations of transactive control and compared them in terms of their payoff functions, control decisions, information privacy, and mathematical solution concepts. It was suggested in Part 1 that these four listed components should be adopted for meaningful comparison and design of future transactive systems. Part 2 proposes qualitative and quantitative metrics that will be needed to compare alternative transactive systems. It then uses the analysis and design principles from Part 1 while conducting more in-depth analysis of two transactive demonstrations: the American Electric Power (AEP) gridSMART Demonstration,more » which used a double –auction market mechanism, and a consensus method like that used in the Pacific Northwest Smart Grid Demonstration. Ultimately, metrics must be devised and used to meaningfully compare alternative transactive systems. One significant contribution of this report is an observation that the decision function used for thermostat control in the AEP gridSMART Demonstration has superior performance if its decision function is recast to more accurately reflect the power that will be used under for thermostatic control under alternative market outcomes.« less

Sustainability - What are the Odds? Guessing the Future of our Environment, Economy, and Society

EPA Science Inventory

This article examines the concept of sustainability from a global perspective, describing how alternative futures might develop in the environmental, economic, and social dimensions. The alternatives to sustainability appear to be (a) a catastrophic failure of life support, econo...

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.; Wiser, R.; Sandor, D.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

[Logistic and production process in a regional blood center: modeling and analysis].

PubMed

Baesler, Felipe; Martínez, Cristina; Yaksic, Eduardo; Herrera, Claudia

2011-09-01

The blood supply chain is a complex system that considers different interconnected elements that have to be synchronized correctly to satisfy in quality and quantity the final patient requirements. To determine the blood center maximum production capacity, as well as the determination of the necessary changes for a future production capacity expansion. This work was developed in the Blood Center of Concepción, Chile, operations management tools were applied to model it and to propose improvement alternatives for the production process. The use of simulation is highlighted, which permitted the replication of the center behavior and the evaluation of expansion alternatives. It is possible to absorb a 100% increment in blood demand, without making major changes or investments in the production process. Also it was possible to determine the subsequent steps in terms of investments in equipment and human resources for a future expansion of the center coverage. The techniques used to model the production process of the blood center of Concepción, Chile, allowed us to analyze how it operates, to detect "bottle necks", and to support the decision making process for a future expansion of its capacity.

Human error mitigation initiative (HEMI) : summary report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevens, Susan M.; Ramos, M. Victoria; Wenner, Caren A.

2004-11-01

Despite continuing efforts to apply existing hazard analysis methods and comply with requirements, human errors persist across the nuclear weapons complex. Due to a number of factors, current retroactive and proactive methods to understand and minimize human error are highly subjective, inconsistent in numerous dimensions, and are cumbersome to characterize as thorough. An alternative and proposed method begins with leveraging historical data to understand what the systemic issues are and where resources need to be brought to bear proactively to minimize the risk of future occurrences. An illustrative analysis was performed using existing incident databases specific to Pantex weapons operationsmore » indicating systemic issues associated with operating procedures that undergo notably less development rigor relative to other task elements such as tooling and process flow. Future recommended steps to improve the objectivity, consistency, and thoroughness of hazard analysis and mitigation were delineated.« less

A proposed streamflow-data program for North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crosby, O.A.

1970-01-01

An evaluation of the streamflow data available in North Dakota was made to provide guidelines for planning future programs. The basic steps in the evaluation procedure were (1) definition of the long-term goals of the streamflow data program in quantitative form, (2) examination and analysis of all available data to determine which goals have already been met, and (3) consideration of alternate programs and techniques to meet the remaining objectives. None of the goals could be met by generalization of the data for gaged basins by regression analysis. This fact indicates that significant changes should be made in the present data program to obtain better areal coverage to achieve the goals set. A streamflow data program based on the guidelines developed in this study is proposed for the future.

Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

2016-02-01

Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

Fuel Cycle Analysis Framework Base Cases for the IAEA/INPRO GAINS Collaborative Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brent Dixon

Thirteen countries participated in the Collaborative Project GAINS “Global Architecture of Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems Based on Thermal and Fast Reactors Including a Closed Fuel Cycle”, which was the primary activity within the IAEA/INPRO Program Area B: “Global Vision on Sustainable Nuclear Energy” for the last three years. The overall objective of GAINS was to develop a standard framework for assessing future nuclear energy systems taking into account sustainable development, and to validate results through sample analyses. This paper details the eight scenarios that constitute the GAINS framework base cases for analysis of the transition to future innovative nuclear energymore » systems. The framework base cases provide a reference for users of the framework to start from in developing and assessing their own alternate systems. Each base case is described along with performance results against the GAINS sustainability evaluation metrics. The eight cases include four using a moderate growth projection and four using a high growth projection for global nuclear electricity generation through 2100. The cases are divided into two sets, addressing homogeneous and heterogeneous scenarios developed by GAINS to model global fuel cycle strategies. The heterogeneous world scenario considers three separate nuclear groups based on their fuel cycle strategies, with non-synergistic and synergistic cases. The framework base case analyses results show the impact of these different fuel cycle strategies while providing references for future users of the GAINS framework. A large number of scenario alterations are possible and can be used to assess different strategies, different technologies, and different assumptions about possible futures of nuclear power. Results can be compared to the framework base cases to assess where these alternate cases perform differently versus the sustainability indicators.« less

Management Development.

DTIC Science & Technology

1972-12-01

and inte- grating increasing numbers of specialists. For example, Information technology Is a relatively new development which has led to the creation...changes occurring in technology that require new information to be disseminated to all the managers whose jobs will be affected by the new technology . It is...requires an analysis of current and future needs of the manager and his organization. Information about alternatives or their discovery requires that

Regional economic impacts of current and proposed management alternatives for Don Edwards National Wildlife Refuge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, Leslie; Huber, Chris; Koontz, Lynne

2012-01-01

The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must describe the desired future conditions of a Refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. The Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, located at the south end of California's San Francisco Bay and one of seven refuges in the San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge Complex, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed Refuge management strategies. For Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan planning, a regional economic analysis provides a means of estimating how current management (No Action Alternative) and proposed management activities (alternatives) affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of information: (1) it illustrates the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge's contribution to the local community, and (2) it can help in determining whether economic effects are or are not a real concern in choosing among management alternatives. This report first presents a description of the local community and economy near the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge. Next, the methods used to conduct a regional economic impact analysis are described. An analysis of the final Comprehensive Conservation Plan management strategies that could affect stakeholders, residents, and the local economy is then presented. The management activities of economic concern in this analysis are: * Spending in the local community by Refuge visitors; * Refuge personnel salary spending; and * Refuge purchases of goods and services within the local community.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Hein, J.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hostick, D.; Belzer, D.B.; Hadley, S.W.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2: Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, C.; Bain, R.; Chapman, J.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Cost Minimization Analysis of Two Treatment Regimens for Low-Risk Rhabdomyosarcoma in Children: A Report From the Children’s Oncology Group

PubMed Central

Russell, Heidi; Swint, J. Michael; Lal, Lincy; Meza, Jane; Walterhouse, David; Hawkins, Douglas S.; Okcu, M. Fatih

2015-01-01

Background Recent Children’s Oncology Group trials for low-risk rhabdomyosarcoma attempted to reduce therapy while maintaining excellent outcomes. D9602 delivered 45 weeks of outpatient vincristine and dactinomycin (VA) for patients in Subgroup A. ARST0331 reduced the duration of therapy to 22 weeks but added four doses of cyclophosphamide to VA for patients in Subset 1. Failure-free survival was similar. We undertook a cost minimization comparison to help guide future decision-making. Procedure Addressing the costs of treatment from the healthcare perspective we modeled a simple decision-analytic model from aggregate clinical trial data. Medical care inputs and probabilities were estimated from trial reports and focused chart review. Costs of radiation, surgery and off-therapy surveillance were excluded. Unit costs were obtained from literature and national reimbursement and inpatient utilization databases and converted to 2012 US dollars. Model uncertainty was assessed with first-order sensitivity analysis. Results Direct medical costs were $46,393 for D9602 and $43,261 for ARST0331 respectively, making ARST0331 the less costly strategy. Dactinomycin contributed the most to D9602 total costs but varied with age (42–69%). Chemotherapy administration costs accounted for the largest proportion of ARST0331 total costs (39–57%). ARST0331 incurred fewer costs than D9602 under most alternative distributive models and alternative clinical practice assumptions. Conclusions Cost analysis suggests that ARST0331 may incur fewer costs than D9602 from the healthcare system’s perspective. Attention to the services driving the costs provides directions for future efficiency improvements. Future studies should prospectively consider the patient and family’s perspective. PMID:24453105

Cost minimization analysis of two treatment regimens for low-risk rhabdomyosarcoma in children: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PubMed

Russell, Heidi; Swint, J Michael; Lal, Lincy; Meza, Jane; Walterhouse, David; Hawkins, Douglas S; Okcu, M Fatih

2014-06-01

Recent Children's Oncology Group trials for low-risk rhabdomyosarcoma attempted to reduce therapy while maintaining excellent outcomes. D9602 delivered 45 weeks of outpatient vincristine and dactinomycin (VA) for patients in Subgroup A. ARST0331 reduced the duration of therapy to 22 weeks but added four doses of cyclophosphamide to VA for patients in Subset 1. Failure-free survival was similar. We undertook a cost minimization comparison to help guide future decision-making. Addressing the costs of treatment from the healthcare perspective we modeled a simple decision-analytic model from aggregate clinical trial data. Medical care inputs and probabilities were estimated from trial reports and focused chart review. Costs of radiation, surgery and off-therapy surveillance were excluded. Unit costs were obtained from literature and national reimbursement and inpatient utilization databases and converted to 2012 US dollars. Model uncertainty was assessed with first-order sensitivity analysis. Direct medical costs were $46,393 for D9602 and $43,261 for ARST0331 respectively, making ARST0331 the less costly strategy. Dactinomycin contributed the most to D9602 total costs but varied with age (42-69%). Chemotherapy administration costs accounted for the largest proportion of ARST0331 total costs (39-57%). ARST0331 incurred fewer costs than D9602 under most alternative distributive models and alternative clinical practice assumptions. Cost analysis suggests that ARST0331 may incur fewer costs than D9602 from the healthcare system's perspective. Attention to the services driving the costs provides directions for future efficiency improvements. Future studies should prospectively consider the patient and family's perspective. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Familiarizing with toy food: preliminary research and future directions.

PubMed

Lynch, Meghan

2012-01-01

A qualitative content analysis of children and parents interacting with toy food in their homes in view of recommendations for developing healthful food preferences. YouTube videos (n = 101) of children and parents interacting in toy kitchen settings were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Toy food was categorized under 5 food groups, and interactions were compared to literature on developing healthful food preferences in children in real life. The most popular food group represented by the toys was Extras, followed by Fruits/Vegetables, Meats/Alternatives, Grains, and Milk/Dairy. Many parents were also found to encourage behaviors not conducive to healthful food preference development in children. Future research needs to determine whether familiarization with toy food influences children's real-life food preferences. Nutrition education programs for young children and parents could greatly benefit from future research on this approach. Exploring novel ways of developing children's food preferences is well warranted. Copyright © 2012 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unlocking data: federated identity with LSDMA and dCache

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, AP; Behrmann, G.; Bernardt, C.; Fuhrmann, P.; Hardt, M.; Hayrapetyan, A.; Litvintsev, D.; Mkrtchyan, T.; Rossi, A.; Schwank, K.

2015-12-01

X.509, the dominant identity system from grid computing, has proved unpopular for many user communities. More popular alternatives generally assume the user is interacting via their web-browser. Such alternatives allow a user to authenticate with many services with the same credentials (user-name and password). They also allow users from different organisations form collaborations quickly and simply. Scientists generally require that their custom analysis software has direct access to the data. Such direct access is not currently supported by alternatives to X.509, as they require the use of a web-browser. Various approaches to solve this issue are being investigated as part of the Large Scale Data Management and Analysis (LSDMA) project, a German funded national R&D project. These involve dynamic credential translation (creating an X.509 credential) to allow backwards compatibility in addition to direct SAML- and OpenID Connect-based authentication. We present a summary of the current state of art and the current status of the federated identity work funded by the LSDMA project along with the future road map.

Alternative Futures for the Education of Students with Severe Disabilities. Proceedings of the Conference on Severe and Multiple Handicaps: Alternative Futures (Edmonton, Canada, May 6-8, 1987).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baine, David, Ed.; And Others

This book contains 23 papers given at a 1987 Edmonton (Canada) conference. Papers have the following titles and authors: "Current Trends and Future Challenges in the Education of Students with Severe Handicaps" (Dick Sobsey); "How Often Do You Need to Collect Student Performance Data? A Study of the Effects of Frequency of Probe Data Collection…

The relationship between future orientation and street substance use among Texas alternative school students.

PubMed

Peters, R J; Tortolero, Susan R; Johnson, Regina Jones; Addy, Robert C; Markham, Christine M; Escobar-Chaves, S Liliana; Lewis, Holly; Yacoubian, George S

2005-01-01

Self-reported substance use data were collected from 963 alternative school students in grades 7-12 who were surveyed through the Safer Choices 2 study in Houston, Texas. Data were collected between October 2000 and March 2001. Logistic regression analyses indicated that lower levels of future orientation was significantly associated (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.81-0.97) with thirty-day substance use after controlling for age and gender. In addition, lower levels of future orientation was found to have a significant association with students' lifetime substance use (OR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.87-.99) after controlling for age, race, and gender. While the relationships tested in this study are exploratory, they provide evidence for an important connection between future orientation and substance use among adolescents attending alternative schools.

Medicare privatization and the erosion of retirement security.

PubMed

Polivka, Larry; Kwak, Jung

2008-01-01

This paper describes initiatives to privatize the Medicare program over the last 10 years and the implications of these initiatives for the future of retirement security. Our analysis focuses on the privatization provisions of the Medicare Modernization Act, which is largely designed to benefit the corporate health care sector without containing costs or significantly reducing the threat of rising health care costs to the economic security of current and future retirees. In fact, as designed, the Medicare Modernization Act is likely to increase the threat to retirement security in the years ahead. We conclude with a series of policy alternatives to the neoliberal agenda for the privatization of Medicare.

The Case for Deep Space Telecommunications Relay Stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, Charles W.; Miranda, Felix A. (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

Each future mission to Jupiter and beyond must carry the traditional suite of telecommunications systems for command and control and for mission data transmission to earth. The telecommunications hardware includes the large antenna and the high-power transmitters that enable the communications link. Yet future spacecraft will be scaled down from the hallmark missions of Galileo and Cassini to Jupiter and Saturn, respectively. This implies that a higher percentage of the spacecraft weight and power must be dedicated to telecommunications system. The following analysis quantifies this impact to future missions and then explores the merits of an alternative approach using deep space relay stations for the link back to earth. It will be demonstrated that a telecommunications relay satellite would reduce S/C telecommunications weight and power sufficiently to add one to two more instruments.

Steering a new course

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gordon, D.

1991-01-01

This book offers for the first time a comprehensive survey and analysis of America's transportation system - how it contributes to our environmental problems, and how we could make it safer, more efficient, and less costly. The book includes a history of modern American transportation, an overview of the U.S. transportation sector, and an in-depth discussion of the strategies that hold the most promise for the future. The book provides a wealth of information about innovative transportation options such as: alternative fuels, advances in mass transit, ultra- fuel-efficient vehicles, high-occupancy vehicle facilities, and telecommuting and alternative work schedules. Deborah Gordonmore » is a transportation and energy analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists.« less

An evaluation of negative-emission transportation-energy systems for the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, E. D.; Meerman, J. C.

2017-12-01

We present technical, economic, and carbon footprint evaluations of alternative technological pathways for negative emissions transportation energy from sustainably-sourced lignocellulosic biomass in the U.S. We combine the understanding of alternative technological pathways with spatially-resolved projections of the sustainable supply of lignocellulosic biomass and with future demands for transportation services to provide insights on the extent to which biomass-based energy might be able to help meet mid-century U.S. transportation energy needs and carbon mitigation targets. Biomass conversion routes included in our evaluations are biochemical, biocatalytic, thermocatalytic hydropyrolysis, and thermochemical gasification/synthesis to produce liquid fuels fungible with petroleum-derived fuels, and thermochemical conversion to hydrogen (for fuel cell vehicles) or electricity (for battery electric vehicles). Lifecycle net negative emissions are achieved for each system via soil carbon buildup during biomass production and/or capture of CO2 at the conversion facility and underground storage. Co-processing of some fossil fuel is considered in some cases to improve economics. For self-consistency in the analysis across systems, a common set of technical, economic and carbon footprint input parameters are adopted. Capital cost estimates are harmonized by taking into account scale of facilities, level of engineering details available in generating a cost estimate, and the technology readiness level (TRL) of components and the process as a whole. Implications for economics of future commercial plants are investigated, considering alternative prospective reductions in capital and operating costs (via "learning by doing") and alternative carbon mitigation policies.

In search of robust flood risk management alternatives for the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klijn, F.; Knoop, J. M.; Ligtvoet, W.; Mens, M. J. P.

2012-05-01

The Netherlands' policy for flood risk management is being revised in view of a sustainable development against a background of climate change, sea level rise and increasing socio-economic vulnerability to floods. This calls for a thorough policy analysis, which can only be adequate when there is agreement about the "framing" of the problem and about the strategic alternatives that should be taken into account. In support of this framing, we performed an exploratory policy analysis, applying future climate and socio-economic scenarios to account for the autonomous development of flood risks, and defined a number of different strategic alternatives for flood risk management at the national level. These alternatives, ranging from flood protection by brute force to reduction of the vulnerability by spatial planning only, were compared with continuation of the current policy on a number of criteria, comprising costs, the reduction of fatality risk and economic risk, and their robustness in relation to uncertainties. We found that a change of policy away from conventional embankments towards gaining control over the flooding process by making the embankments unbreachable is attractive. By thus influencing exposure to flooding, the fatality risk can be effectively reduced at even lower net societal costs than by continuation of the present policy or by raising the protection standards where cost-effective.

A 3-D Magnetic Analysis of a Stirling Convertor Linear Alternator Under Load

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geng, Steven M.; Schwarze, Gene E.; Niedra, Janis M.; Regan, Timothy F.

2001-01-01

The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), the Department of Energy (DOE), and the Stirling Technology Company (STC) are developing Stirling convertors for Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems (SRPS) to provide electrical power for future NASA deep space missions. STC is developing the 55-We Technology Demonstration Convertor (TDC) under contract to DOE. Of critical importance to the successful development of the Stirling convertor for space power applications is the development of a lightweight and highly efficient linear alternator. This paper presents a 3-dimensional finite element method (FEM) approach for evaluating Stirling convertor linear alternators. The model extends a magnetostatic analysis previously reported at the 35th Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference (IECEC) to include the effects of the load current. STC's 55-We linear alternator design was selected to validate the model. Spatial plots of magnetic field strength (H) are presented in the region of the exciting permanent magnets. The margin for permanent magnet demagnetization is calculated at the expected magnet operating temperature for the near earth environment and for various average magnet temperatures. These thermal conditions were selected to represent a worst-case condition for the planned deep space missions. This paper presents plots that identify regions of high H where the potential to alter the magnetic moment of the magnets exists.

10 CFR 503.24 - Future use of synthetic fuels.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... use of a synthetic fuel derived from coal or another alternate fuel as a primary energy source in the... 10 Energy 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Future use of synthetic fuels. 503.24 Section 503.24 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS NEW FACILITIES Temporary Exemptions for New...

10 CFR 503.24 - Future use of synthetic fuels.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... use of a synthetic fuel derived from coal or another alternate fuel as a primary energy source in the... 10 Energy 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Future use of synthetic fuels. 503.24 Section 503.24 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS NEW FACILITIES Temporary Exemptions for New...

10 CFR 503.24 - Future use of synthetic fuels.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... use of a synthetic fuel derived from coal or another alternate fuel as a primary energy source in the... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Future use of synthetic fuels. 503.24 Section 503.24 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS NEW FACILITIES Temporary Exemptions for New...

10 CFR 503.24 - Future use of synthetic fuels.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... use of a synthetic fuel derived from coal or another alternate fuel as a primary energy source in the... 10 Energy 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Future use of synthetic fuels. 503.24 Section 503.24 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS NEW FACILITIES Temporary Exemptions for New...

10 CFR 503.24 - Future use of synthetic fuels.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Future use of synthetic fuels. 503.24 Section 503.24 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS NEW FACILITIES Temporary Exemptions for New... use of a synthetic fuel derived from coal or another alternate fuel as a primary energy source in the...

Categorization of alternative astronomical and scientifical conceptions of the teachers from the north coast of São Paulo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzaga, E. P.

2016-05-01

This work deals with the analysis of scientific and alternative astronomical concepts found in the responses of teachers who teach classes Science, Geography and Physic in Basic Education (BE) of the state of the North Coast of São Paulo and how to address the alternative astronomical concepts with students from students Fundamental Education (FE) and Medium Education (ME). Bringing the legal documents regarding the Astronomy in BE, within the national and the São Paulo regions curriculum level, also with rationed researches to the teacher's formation, conceptual errors in books, knowledge non-formal spaces, alternative concepts, Astronomical studies and content analysis for fundamental theoretical. The task executed with the teachers was done via Technical Orientations (TO), promoted by the Director of Education (DE) from Caraguatatuba and region, with the premise to threat the continuous formation giving moments of discussion, practical activities and using the Digital Mobile Planetarium (DMP) with non-formal spaces of knowledge to the Astronomical studies gathering data via questions. Within the analysis of the answers analysis by the teachers, tables were created with the categories that highlight actual situations on the astronomical studies in the North Coast of São Paulo, and demarked the possible paths where the continuous formation will be followed in the future. Aspects checked in the survey were highlighted; such as teachers understand that they need continuing education; teachers have scientific astronomical views on various aspects know to teach concepts of Astronomy at BE; TO is a viable option as continued training and the use of DMP as no formal teaching and learning.

Anticipating surprise: Using agent-based alternative futures simulation modeling to identify and map surprising fires in the Willamette Valley, Oregon USA

Treesearch

David Hulse; Allan Branscomb; Chris Enright; Bart Johnson; Cody Evers; John Bolte; Alan Ager

2016-01-01

This article offers a literature-supported conception and empirically grounded analysis of surprise by exploring the capacity of scenario-driven, agent-based simulation models to better anticipate it. Building on literature-derived definitions and typologies of surprise, and using results from a modeled 81,000 ha study area in a wildland-urban interface of western...

Operations analysis (study 2.6). Volume 4: Computer specification; logistics of orbiting vehicle servicing (LOVES)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

The logistics of orbital vehicle servicing computer specifications was developed and a number of alternatives to improve utilization of the space shuttle and the tug were investigated. Preliminary results indicate that space servicing offers a potential for reducing future operational and program costs over ground refurbishment of satellites. A computer code which could be developed to simulate space servicing is presented.

Development of Nested Socioeconomic Storylines for Climate Change IAV Applications (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preston, B. L.; Absar, M.

2013-12-01

Socioeconomic scenarios are important for understanding future societal consequences of climate and weather. The global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) represent a new opportunity for coordinated development and application of such scenarios to improve the representation of alternative societal development pathways within climate change consequence analysis. However, capitalizing on this opportunity necessitates bridging the scale disparity between the global SSPs and the regional/local context for which many impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) studies are conducted. To this end, we adopted the Factor, Actor, and Sector methodology to develop a set of qualitative national and sub-national socioeconomic storylines for the United States and U.S. Southeast using the global SSPs as boundary conditions. In particular, our study sought to develop storylines to explore alternative socioeconomic futures for the U.S. Southeast and their implications for adaptive capacity of the region's energy, water, and agricultural sectors. These storylines subsequently serve as the foundation for a range of downstream IAV applications. These include qualitative vulnerability analysis to explore interactions between energy, water, and agriculture in a changing climate; as well as quantitative impact assessment where regional storylines are used to establish modeling parameters within a biophysical crop model. Such methods and applications illustrate potentially useful opportunities for routinizing the use of SSP-based storylines in IAV studies.

Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2018-01-01

The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

Prayer and health: review, meta-analysis, and research agenda.

PubMed

Masters, Kevin S; Spielmans, Glen I

2007-08-01

This article reviews the empirical research on prayer and health and offers a research agenda to guide future studies. Though many people practice prayer and believe it affects their health, scientific evidence is limited. In keeping with a general increase in interest in spirituality and complementary and alternative treatments, prayer has garnered attention among a growing number of behavioral scientists. The effects of distant intercessory prayer are examined by meta-analysis and it is concluded that no discernable effects can be found. The literature regarding frequency of prayer, content of prayer, and prayer as a coping strategy is subsequently reviewed. Suggestions for future research include the conduct of experimental studies based on conceptual models that include precise operationally defined constructs, longitudinal investigations with proper measure of control variables, and increased use of ecological momentary assessment techniques.

Implicit and explicit attitudes towards conventional and complementary and alternative medicine treatments: Introduction of an Implicit Association Test.

PubMed

Green, James A; Hohmann, Cynthia; Lister, Kelsi; Albertyn, Riani; Bradshaw, Renee; Johnson, Christine

2016-06-01

This study examined associations between anticipated future health behaviour and participants' attitudes. Three Implicit Association Tests were developed to assess safety, efficacy and overall attitude. They were used to examine preference associations between conventional versus complementary and alternative medicine among 186 participants. A structural equation model suggested only a single implicit association, rather than three separate domains. However, this single implicit association predicted additional variance in anticipated future use of complementary and alternative medicine beyond explicit. Implicit measures should give further insight into motivation for complementary and alternative medicine use. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations.

PubMed

Gregory, Robin; Keeney, Ralph L

2017-03-01

This article addresses the difficulties of incorporating uncertainty about consequence estimates as part of stakeholder deliberations involving multiple alternatives. Although every prediction of future consequences necessarily involves uncertainty, a large gap exists between common practices for addressing uncertainty in stakeholder deliberations and the procedures of prescriptive decision-aiding models advanced by risk and decision analysts. We review the treatment of uncertainty at four main phases of the deliberative process: with experts asked to describe possible consequences of competing alternatives, with stakeholders who function both as individuals and as members of coalitions, with the stakeholder committee composed of all stakeholders, and with decisionmakers. We develop and recommend a model that uses certainty equivalents as a theoretically robust and practical approach for helping diverse stakeholders to incorporate uncertainties when evaluating multiple-objective alternatives as part of public policy decisions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Llopis-Albert, Carlos; Morell, Ignacio; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Senent-Aparicio, Javier; Baena-Ruiz, Leticia

2018-05-01

Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater-salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and land cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it), and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity.

United States transportation fuel economics (1975 - 1995)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, A. D., III

1975-01-01

The United States transportation fuel economics in terms of fuel resources options, processing alternatives, and attendant economics for the period 1975 to 1995 are evaluated. The U.S. energy resource base is reviewed, portable fuel-processing alternatives are assessed, and selected future aircraft fuel options - JP fuel, liquid methane, and liquid hydrogen - are evaluated economically. Primary emphasis is placed on evaluating future aircraft fuel options and economics to provide guidance for future strategy of NASA in the development of aviation and air transportation research and technology.

Tools and techniques for developing policies for complex and uncertain systems.

PubMed

Bankes, Steven C

2002-05-14

Agent-based models (ABM) are examples of complex adaptive systems, which can be characterized as those systems for which no model less complex than the system itself can accurately predict in detail how the system will behave at future times. Consequently, the standard tools of policy analysis, based as they are on devising policies that perform well on some best estimate model of the system, cannot be reliably used for ABM. This paper argues that policy analysis by using ABM requires an alternative approach to decision theory. The general characteristics of such an approach are described, and examples are provided of its application to policy analysis.

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analysing spatial data at a municipal scale.

Rural Schools, Rural Communities: An Alternative View of the Future. Keynote Address.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nachtigal, Paul M.

The urbanization and industrialization of a society based on commercial competitiveness has resulted in the marginalization of rural communities and the disempowerment of rural people. An alternative view of the future is needed, and rural schools have a part to play in creating it. Four sets of forces are driving society toward a different…

Use of complementary and alternative medicine by pediatric patients with functional and organic gastrointestinal diseases: results from a multicenter survey.

PubMed

Vlieger, Arine M; Blink, Marjolein; Tromp, Ellen; Benninga, Marc A

2008-08-01

Many pediatric patients use complementary and alternative medicine, especially when facing a chronic illness for which treatment options are limited. So far, research on the use of complementary and alternative medicine in patients with functional gastrointestinal disease has been scarce. This study was designed to assess complementary and alternative medicine use in children with different gastrointestinal diseases, including functional disorders, to determine which factors predicted complementary and alternative medicine use and to assess the willingness of parents to participate in future studies on complementary and alternative medicine efficacy and safety. The prevalence of complementary and alternative medicine use was assessed by using a questionnaire for 749 children visiting pediatric gastroenterology clinics of 9 hospitals in the Netherlands. The questionnaire consisted of 35 questions on the child's gastrointestinal disease, medication use, health status, past and future complementary and alternative medicine use, reasons for its use, and the necessity of complementary and alternative medicine research. In this study population, the frequency of complementary and alternative medicine use was 37.6%. A total of 60.3% of this group had used complementary and alternative medicine specifically for their gastrointestinal disease. This specific complementary and alternative medicine use was higher in patients with functional disorders than organic disorders (25.3% vs 17.2%). Adverse effects of allopathic medication, school absenteeism, age

Flood return level analysis of Peaks over Threshold series under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Xiong, L.; Hu, T.; Xu, C. Y.; Guo, S.

2016-12-01

Obtaining insights into future flood estimation is of great significance for water planning and management. Traditional flood return level analysis with the stationarity assumption has been challenged by changing environments. A method that takes into consideration the nonstationarity context has been extended to derive flood return levels for Peaks over Threshold (POT) series. With application to POT series, a Poisson distribution is normally assumed to describe the arrival rate of exceedance events, but this distribution assumption has at times been reported as invalid. The Negative Binomial (NB) distribution is therefore proposed as an alternative to the Poisson distribution assumption. Flood return levels were extrapolated in nonstationarity context for the POT series of the Weihe basin, China under future climate scenarios. The results show that the flood return levels estimated under nonstationarity can be different with an assumption of Poisson and NB distribution, respectively. The difference is found to be related to the threshold value of POT series. The study indicates the importance of distribution selection in flood return level analysis under nonstationarity and provides a reference on the impact of climate change on flood estimation in the Weihe basin for the future.

17 CFR 242.302 - Recordkeeping requirements for alternative trading systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... alternative trading systems. 242.302 Section 242.302 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND... SECURITY FUTURES Regulation Ats-Alternative Trading Systems § 242.302 Recordkeeping requirements for alternative trading systems. To comply with the condition set forth in paragraph (b)(8) of § 242.301, an...

17 CFR 242.303 - Record preservation requirements for alternative trading systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... requirements for alternative trading systems. 242.303 Section 242.303 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Regulation Ats-Alternative Trading Systems § 242.303 Record preservation requirements for alternative trading systems. (a) To comply with the condition set forth in paragraph (b)(9) of...

17 CFR 242.303 - Record preservation requirements for alternative trading systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... requirements for alternative trading systems. 242.303 Section 242.303 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Regulation Ats-Alternative Trading Systems § 242.303 Record preservation requirements for alternative trading systems. (a) To comply with the condition set forth in paragraph (b)(9) of...

17 CFR 242.303 - Record preservation requirements for alternative trading systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... requirements for alternative trading systems. 242.303 Section 242.303 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Regulation Ats-Alternative Trading Systems § 242.303 Record preservation requirements for alternative trading systems. (a) To comply with the condition set forth in paragraph (b)(9) of...

17 CFR 242.302 - Recordkeeping requirements for alternative trading systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... alternative trading systems. 242.302 Section 242.302 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND... SECURITY FUTURES Regulation Ats-Alternative Trading Systems § 242.302 Recordkeeping requirements for alternative trading systems. To comply with the condition set forth in paragraph (b)(8) of § 242.301, an...

17 CFR 242.302 - Recordkeeping requirements for alternative trading systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... alternative trading systems. 242.302 Section 242.302 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND... SECURITY FUTURES Regulation Ats-Alternative Trading Systems § 242.302 Recordkeeping requirements for alternative trading systems. To comply with the condition set forth in paragraph (b)(8) of § 242.301, an...

17 CFR 242.302 - Recordkeeping requirements for alternative trading systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... alternative trading systems. 242.302 Section 242.302 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND... SECURITY FUTURES Regulation Ats-Alternative Trading Systems § 242.302 Recordkeeping requirements for alternative trading systems. To comply with the condition set forth in paragraph (b)(8) of § 242.301, an...

17 CFR 242.302 - Recordkeeping requirements for alternative trading systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... alternative trading systems. 242.302 Section 242.302 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND... SECURITY FUTURES Regulation Ats-Alternative Trading Systems § 242.302 Recordkeeping requirements for alternative trading systems. To comply with the condition set forth in paragraph (b)(8) of § 242.301, an...

17 CFR 242.303 - Record preservation requirements for alternative trading systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... requirements for alternative trading systems. 242.303 Section 242.303 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Regulation Ats-Alternative Trading Systems § 242.303 Record preservation requirements for alternative trading systems. (a) To comply with the condition set forth in paragraph (b)(9) of...

Observation impact studies with the Mercator Ocean analysis and forecasting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remy, E. D.; Le Traon, P. Y.; Lellouche, J. M.; Drevillon, M.; Turpin, V.; Benkiran, M.

2016-02-01

Mercator Ocean produces and delivers in real-time ocean analysis and forecasts on a daily basis. The quality of the analysis highly relies on the availability and quality of the assimilated observations.Tools are developed to estimate the impact of the present network and to help designing the future evolutions of the observing systems in the context of near real time production of ocean analysis and forecasts. OSE and OSSE are the main approaches used in this context. They allow the assessment of the efficiency of a given data set to constrain the ocean model circulation through the data assimilation process. Illustrations will mainly focus on the present and future evolution of the Argo observation network and altimetry constellation, including the potential impact of future SWOT data. Our systems show clear sensitivities to observation array changes, mainly depending on the specified observation error and regional dynamic. Impact on non observed variables can be important and are important to evaluate. Dedicated diagnostics has to be define to measure the improvements bring by each data set. Alternative approaches to OSE and OSSE are also explored: approximate computation of DFS will be presented and discussed. Limitations of each approach will be discussed in the context of real time operation.

Analysis and Assessment of Impacts on Biodiversity: Investigating Alternative Futures for the California Mojave Desert

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-07-01

in conservation evaluation. Biological Conservation 50:1-11. Maizel, M., R. D. White, S. Gage, L . Osbome, R. Root, S. Stitt and G. Muehlbach. 2000...Bedward, M., R. L . Pressey and D. A. Keith. 1992. A new approach for selecting fully representative reserve networks: Addressing efficiency, reserve...chuckwalla, Sauromalus obesus. University of California Publications in Zoology 101:1-60. Best, T. L . 1995. Spermophilus mohavensis. Mammalian Species

Alternative Futures for Forest-Based Nanomaterials: An Application of the Manoa Schools Alternative Futures Method

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; J. Dator; Mike Dockry; A. Yee

2016-01-01

Forestry and forest products research has entered into a robust research agenda focused on creating nano-sized particles and nanoproducts from wood. As wood-based materials can be sustainably produced, the potential of these renewable products could be limitless and include high-end compostable electronics, paint-on solar panels, and lightweight materials for airplanes...

Report to the Congress on alternative methods for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1990-02-01

The purpose of this study is to fulfill the requirements of Public Law No. 101-46, approved June 30, 1989. The study describes and evaluates alternative methods for financing the future expansion of the Strategic petroleum Reserve (SPR), both to the current target level of 750 million barrels and to potential future levels of up to one billion barrels.

The Idea of a World University: Can Foucauldian Research Offer a Vision of Educational Futures?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Ansgar

2011-01-01

Foucauldian research, as it is currently practised, is generally unwilling to offer a vision of alternative futures. This article examines the recent work (2007 and 2009) of Jan Masschelein and Maarten Simons which appears to be an exception. They offer a critique of contemporary trends in higher education and propose an alternative model: the…

A tradeoff study of determine the optimum approach to a wash/rinse capability to support future space flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, D. A.

1976-01-01

Specific requirements for a wash/rinse capability to support Spacelab biological experimentation and to identify various concepts for achieving this capability were determined. This included the examination of current state-of-the-art and emerging technology designs that would meet the wash/rinse requirements. Once several concepts were identified, including the disposable utensils, tools and gloves or other possible alternatives, a tradeoff analysis involving system cost, weight, volume utilization, functional performance, maintainability, reliability, power utilization, safety, complexity, etc., was performed so as to determine an optimum approach for achieving a wash/rinse capability to support future space flights. Missions of varying crew size and durations were considered.

Finding the UV-Visible Path Forward: Proceedings of the Community Workshop to Plan the Future of UV/Visible Space Astrophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scowen, Paul A.; Tripp, Todd; Beasley, Matt; Ardila, David; Andersson, B.-G.; Maíz Apellániz, Jesús; Barstow, Martin; Bianchi, Luciana; Calzetti, Daniela; Clampin, Mark; Evans, Christopher J.; France, Kevin; García García, Miriam; Gomez de Castro, Ana; Harris, Walt; Hartigan, Patrick; Howk, J. Christopher; Hutchings, John; Larruquert, Juan; Lillie, Charles F.; Matthews, Gary; McCandliss, Stephan; Polidan, Ron; Perez, Mario R.; Rafelski, Marc; Roederer, Ian U.; Sana, Hugues; Sanders, Wilton T.; Schiminovich, David; Thronson, Harley; Tumlinson, Jason; Vallerga, John; Wofford, Aida

2017-07-01

We present the science cases and technological discussions that came from the workshop titled “Finding the ultraviolet (UV)-Visible Path Forward” held at NASA GSFC 2015 June 25-26. The material presented outlines the compelling science that can be enabled by a next generation space-based observatory dedicated for UV-visible science, the technologies that are available to include in that observatory design, and the range of possible alternative launch approaches that could also enable some of the science. The recommendations to the Cosmic Origins Program Analysis Group from the workshop attendees on possible future development directions are outlined.

A systematic review of Functional Communication Training (FCT) interventions involving augmentative and alternative communication in school settings.

PubMed

Walker, Virginia L; Lyon, Kristin J; Loman, Sheldon L; Sennott, Samuel

2018-06-01

The purpose of this meta-analysis was to summarize single-case intervention studies in which Functional Communication Training (FCT) involving augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) was implemented in school settings. Overall, the findings suggest that FCT involving AAC was effective in reducing challenging behaviour and promoting aided or unaided AAC use among participants with disability. FCT was more effective for the participants who engaged in less severe forms of challenging behaviour prior to intervention. Additionally, FCT was more effective when informed by a descriptive functional behaviour assessment and delivered within inclusive school settings. Implications for practice and directions for future research related to FCT for students who use AAC are addressed.

[Blood sampling using "dried blood spot": a clinical biology revolution underway?].

PubMed

Hirtz, Christophe; Lehmann, Sylvain

2015-01-01

Blood testing using the dried blood spot (DBS) is used since the 1960s in clinical analysis, mainly within the framework of the neonatal screening (Guthrie test). Since then numerous analytes such as nucleic acids, small molecules or lipids, were successfully measured on the DBS. While this pre-analytical method represents an interesting alternative to classic blood sampling, its use in routine is still limited. We review here the different clinical applications of the blood sampling on DBS and estimate its future place, supported by the new methods of analysis as the LC-MS mass spectrometry.

Visual Environments for CFD Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Val; George, Michael W. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of the visual environments for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) research. It includes details on critical needs from the future computer environment, features needed to attain this environment, prospects for changes in and the impact of the visualization revolution on the human-computer interface, human processing capabilities, limits of personal environment and the extension of that environment with computers. Information is given on the need for more 'visual' thinking (including instances of visual thinking), an evaluation of the alternate approaches for and levels of interactive computer graphics, a visual analysis of computational fluid dynamics, and an analysis of visualization software.

Contribution to solving the energy crisis - Simulating the prospects for low cost energy through silicon solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kran, A.

1978-01-01

PECAN (Photovoltaic Energy Conversion Analysis) is a highly interactive decision analysis and support system. It simulates the prospects for widespread use of solar cells for the generation of electrical power. PECAN consists of a set of integrated APL functions for evaluating the potential of terrestrial photovoltaics. Specifically, the system is a deterministic simulator, which translates present and future manufacturing technology into economic and financial terms, using the production unit concept. It guides solar cell development in three areas: tactical decision making, strategic planning, and the formulation of alternative options.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Warner, Ethan; Sun, Yongling

The Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technologies Program (ARFVTP) supports a wide range of alternative, low-carbon fuel and vehicle projects in California. This report focuses on two types of ARFVTP benefits. Expected benefits reflect successful deployment of vehicles and fuels supported through program projects. Market transformation benefits represent benefits resulting from project influences on future market conditions to accelerated technology adoption rates. Data collected directly from ARFVTP projects funded from 2009 to first quarter 2014 are used as inputs to the benefits analysis, where possible. Expected benefit estimation methods rely primarily upon project-level data and result in year single-pointmore » estimates within the 2011 to 2025 analysis period. Results suggest that the 178 projects evaluated for expected benefits, representing an investment of $351.3 million in ARFVTP funds, could result in a reduction in petroleum fuel use by 236 million gallons per year and greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 1.7 million metric tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) per year by 2025. Market transformation benefits are described as accruing in addition to expected benefits. They are inherently more uncertain and theoretical than expected benefits, and are therefore reported as high and low ranges, with results suggesting reductions of 1.1 MMTCO2e to 2.5 MMTCO2e per year in GHG reductions and 102 million to 330 million gallons per year in petroleum fuel reductions by 2025. Taking both benefit types into account, results suggest that ARFVTP projects have the potential to make substantial progress toward meeting California's long-term GHG and petroleum fuel use reduction goals. As additional project data become available and market success with alternative and renewable fuels and vehicles grows, the analytic framework relied upon to develop these estimates will become more rigorous and will have a greater capacity to inform future ARFVTP activities.« less

Developments in U.S. Alternative Fuel Markets

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The alternative fueled vehicle (AFV)/alternative fuels industry experienced a number of market-related changes in the second half of the 1990s. This article describes each of the alternative transportation fuels and the AFVs in detail. It provides information on the development to date and looks at trends likely to occur in the future.

An Alternative Futures Analysis of Ecosystem Service Trade-offs in Agricultural Production, Water Quality and Water Yield from the Soyang Lake Watershed in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tenhunen, J. D.; Kang, S.; Huwe, B.; Kim, B.; Koellner, T.; Ok, Y.; Nguyen, T.

2009-12-01

The international consortium project TERRECO (Complex Terrain and Ecological Heterogeneity) applies a transdisciplinary modelling approach to examine current and potential future natural resource use within the largest reservoir system of South Korea, Soyang Lake Watershed. Due to intensive fertilization, small catchments within the watershed export some of the world’s highest levels for N and P, while steep terrain and monsoon rains result in extremely high material transport. To consider alternative future management, integrated modelling approaches are required for land surface processes and production, for hydrological phenomena and transport, for economic evaluation of ecosystem services, and for management and decision-making. These in turn are supported by ground-based studies of ecosystem physiology and agricultural yield, of soil properties and erosion, of runoff and stream transport and flows, of groundwater exchange, of farm economic balances, of county and provincial statistical data bases, and of individual preferences in decision-making within a particular regulatory and economic framework. Experimental design and intial results from these project components are reported. A required partnership with agencies that currently have the mission to carry out land use planning and to advise in policy making is described. A common interest among project participants and agency planners exists, since scenarios should quantify the effects of land use decisions that are in tune with stakeholder demands. Additional evaluations go beyond stakeholder desires to consider land use contributing to sustainable ecosystem services. Progress is reported in addressing the scaling issues critical to transdisciplinary integration, which over the long-term will allow assessments of alternative futures in resource use and in ecosystem services. Information flows and bridging undertaken and planned within the TERRECO project which examines trade-offs in agricultural production versus water quality and water yield in the Soyang Lake watershed of South Korea.

Gravel resources, urbanization, and future land use, Front Range Urban Corridor, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soule, James M.; Fitch, Harold R.

1974-01-01

An assessment of gravel needs in Front Range Urban Corridor markets to 2000 A.D., based on forecast population increases and urbanization, indicates that adequate resources to meet anticipated needs are potentially available, if future land use does not preclude their extraction. Because of urban encroachment onto gravel-bearing lands, this basic construction material is in short supply nationally and in the Front Range Urban Corridor. Longer hauls, increased prices, and use of alternatives, especially crushed rock aggregate, have resulted. An analysis of possible sequential land uses following gravel mining indicates that a desirable use is for 'real estate' ponds and small lakes. A method for computing gravel reserves, based on planimeter measurement of area of resource-bearing lands and statistical analysis of reliability of thickness and size distribution data, was developed to compute reserves in individual markets. A discussion of the qualitative 'usability' of these reserves is then made for the individual markets.

Heading in the right direction: thermodynamics-based network analysis and pathway engineering.

PubMed

Ataman, Meric; Hatzimanikatis, Vassily

2015-12-01

Thermodynamics-based network analysis through the introduction of thermodynamic constraints in metabolic models allows a deeper analysis of metabolism and guides pathway engineering. The number and the areas of applications of thermodynamics-based network analysis methods have been increasing in the last ten years. We review recent applications of these methods and we identify the areas that such analysis can contribute significantly, and the needs for future developments. We find that organisms with multiple compartments and extremophiles present challenges for modeling and thermodynamics-based flux analysis. The evolution of current and new methods must also address the issues of the multiple alternatives in flux directionalities and the uncertainties and partial information from analytical methods. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Constructing the effect of alternative intervention strategies on historic epidemics.

PubMed

Cook, A R; Gibson, G J; Gottwald, T R; Gilligan, C A

2008-10-06

Data from historical epidemics provide a vital and sometimes under-used resource from which to devise strategies for future control of disease. Previous methods for retrospective analysis of epidemics, in which alternative interventions are compared, do not make full use of the information; by using only partial information on the historical trajectory, augmentation of control may lead to predictions of a paradoxical increase in disease. Here we introduce a novel statistical approach that takes full account of the available information in constructing the effect of alternative intervention strategies in historic epidemics. The key to the method lies in identifying a suitable mapping between the historic and notional outbreaks, under alternative control strategies. We do this by using the Sellke construction as a latent process linking epidemics. We illustrate the application of the method with two examples. First, using temporal data for the common human cold, we show the improvement under the new method in the precision of predictions for different control strategies. Second, we show the generality of the method for retrospective analysis of epidemics by applying it to a spatially extended arboreal epidemic in which we demonstrate the relative effectiveness of host culling strategies that differ in frequency and spatial extent. Some of the inferential and philosophical issues that arise are discussed along with the scope of potential application of the new method.

Health need and the use of alternative medicine among adults who do not use conventional medicine

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background We hypothesize that a substantial portion of individuals who forgo conventional care in a given year turn to some form of alternative medicine. This study also examines whether individuals who use only alternative medicine will differ substantially in health and sociodemographic status from individuals using neither alternative medicine nor conventional care in a given year. To identify those factors that predict alternative medicine use in those not using conventional care, we employed the socio-behavioral model of healthcare utilization. Methods The current study is a cross-sectional regression analysis using data from the 2002 National Health Interview Survey. Data were collected in-person from 31,044 adults throughout the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Results 19.3% of adults (38.3 million) did not use conventional care in a 12 month period, although 39.5% of these individuals (14.7 million) reported having one or more problems with their health. Of those not using conventional care, 24.8% (9.5 million) used alternative medicine. Users of alternative medicine had more health needs and were more likely to delay conventional care because of both cost and non-cost factors compared to those not using alternative medicine. While individual predisposing factors (gender, education) were positively associated with alternative medicine use, enabling factors (poverty status, insurance coverage) were not. Conclusions We found that a quarter of individuals who forgo conventional care in a given year turn towards alternative medicine. Our study suggests that the potential determinants of using only alternative medicine are multifactorial. Future research is needed to examine the decision process behind an individual's choice to use alternative medicine but not conventional medicine and the clinical outcomes of this choice. PMID:20670418

Technology Investment Agendas to Expand Human Space Futures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sherwood, Brent

2012-01-01

The paper develops four alternative core-technology advancement specifications, one for each of the four strategic goal options for government investment in human space flight. Already discussed in the literature, these are: Explore Mars; Settle the Moon; accelerate commercial development of Space Passenger Travel; and enable industrial scale-up of Space Solar Power for Earth. In the case of the Explore Mars goal, the paper starts with the contemporary NASA accounting of ?55 Mars-enabling technologies. The analysis decomposes that technology agenda into technologies applicable only to the Explore Mars goal, versus those applicable more broadly to the other three options. Salient technology needs of all four options are then elaborated to a comparable level of detail. The comparison differentiates how technologies or major developments that may seem the same at the level of budget lines or headlines (e.g., heavy-lift Earth launch) would in fact diverge widely if developed in the service of one or another of the HSF goals. The paper concludes that the explicit choice of human space flight goal matters greatly; an expensive portfolio of challenging technologies would not only enable a particular option, it would foreclose the others. Technologies essential to enable human exploration of Mars cannot prepare interchangeably for alternative futures; they would not allow us to choose later to Settle the Moon, unleash robust growth of Space Passenger Travel industries, or help the transition to a post-petroleum future with Space Solar Power for Earth. The paper concludes that a decades-long decision in the U.S.--whether made consciously or by default--to focus technology investment toward achieving human exploration of Mars someday would effectively preclude the alternative goals in our lifetime.

Alternative Futures for Rural Special Education. Proceedings of the Annual ACRES National Rural Special Education Conference (8th, Monterey, California, February 24-27, 1988).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monterey County Office of Education, Salinas, CA.

The document contains the proceedings of a February 1988, conference on alternative futures for rural special education. After a keynote address titled "Rural Is Where the Heart Is" by Phyllis Kaplan, the approximately 100 presentations focused on such topics as the following: work experience service delivery; needs based approach for…

Real Option in Capital Budgeting for SMEs: Insight from Steel Company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muharam, F. M.; Tarrazon, M. A.

2017-06-01

Complex components of investment projects can only be analysed accurately if flexibility and comprehensive consideration of uncertainty are incorporated into valuation. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis has failed to cope with strategic future alternatives that affect the right value of investment projects. Real option valuation (ROV) proves to be the right tool for this purpose since it enables to calculate the enlarged or strategic Net Present Value (ENPV). This study attempts to provide an insight of the usage of ROV in capital budgeting and investment decision-making processes of SMEs. Exploring into the first stage processing of steel industry, analysis of alternatives to cancel, to expand, to defer or to abandon is performed. Completed with multiple options interaction and a sensitivity analysis, our findings prove that the application of ROV is beneficial for complex investment projects independently from the size of the company and particularly suitable in scenarios with scarce resources. The application of Real Option Valuation (ROV) is plausible and beneficial for SMEs to be incorporated in the strategic decision making process.

Final Environmental Assessment for the Grace Hopper Bridge Embankment Repairs at Joint Base Charleston Weapons Station, South Carolina

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-06

geotechnical reconunendations to aid in design of a retaining wall structure in case this alternative is considered in the future. Based on a telephone...potentially involve significant impacts on the environment must be reviewed in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and all other...Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 989, Environmental Impact Analysis Process (EIAP). The analyses focus on the following environmental resources: noise

An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Turnover of United States Air Force Pilots in the Six to Eleven Year Group

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-06-01

1979. 16. Donnelly, James H., Jr., James L. Gibson, and JohnM. Ivancevich . Organizations--Structure, Processes, Behavior. Dallas TX: Business...Publications, Inc., 1973. 17. Ivancevich , John M., Andrew D. Szilagyi, Jr., and Marc J. Wallace, Jr. Organizational Behavior and Performance. Santa Monica CA...215. 102 Lyons , Colonel Billy S., USAF, and Colonel KZjnald L. Marks, USAF. "An Alternate Pilot Management Pro- gram for Future Strategic Weapon

A proposed streamflow-data program for Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitaker, G.L.

1970-01-01

An evaluation of the streamflow data available in Utah was made to provide guidelines for planning future programs. The basic steps in the evaluation procedure were (1) definition of the long- term goals of the streamflow-data program in quantitative form, (2) examination and analysis of all available data to determine which goals have already been met, and (3) consideration of alternate programs and techniques to meet the remaining objectives. The principal goals are (1) to provide current streamflow data where needed for water management and (2) to define streamflow characteristics at any point on any stream within a specified accuracy. It was found that the first goal generally is being satisfied but that flow characteristics at ungaged sites cannot be estimated within the specified accuracy by regression analysis with the existing data and model now available. This latter finding indicates the need for some changes in the present data program so that the accuracy goals can be approached by alternate methods. The regression method may be more successful at a future time if a more suitable model can be developed, and if an adequate sample of streamflow records can be obtained in all areas. In the meantime, methods of transferring flow characteristics which require some information at the ungaged site may be used. A modified streamflow-data program based on this study is proposed.

Alternative Fleet Architecture Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-08-01

Alternative Fleet Architecture Design Stuart E. Johnson and Arthur K. Cebrowski Center...2005 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Alternative Fleet Architecture Design 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d...these principles in mind. An alternative fleet architecture design and three examples of future fleet platform architectures are presented in this

Waste management facility accident analysis (WASTE ACC) system: software for analysis of waste management alternatives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kohout, E.F.; Folga, S.; Mueller, C.

1996-03-01

This paper describes the Waste Management Facility Accident Analysis (WASTE{underscore}ACC) software, which was developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to support the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Waste Management (WM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). WASTE{underscore}ACC is a decision support and database system that is compatible with Microsoft{reg_sign} Windows{trademark}. It assesses potential atmospheric releases from accidents at waste management facilities. The software provides the user with an easy-to-use tool to determine the risk-dominant accident sequences for the many possible combinations of process technologies, waste and facility types, and alternative cases described in the WM PEIS. In addition, its structure willmore » allow additional alternative cases and assumptions to be tested as part of the future DOE programmatic decision-making process. The WASTE{underscore}ACC system demonstrates one approach to performing a generic, systemwide evaluation of accident risks at waste management facilities. The advantages of WASTE{underscore}ACC are threefold. First, the software gets waste volume and radiological profile data that were used to perform other WM PEIS-related analyses directly from the WASTE{underscore}MGMT system. Second, the system allows for a consistent analysis across all sites and waste streams, which enables decision makers to understand more fully the trade-offs among various policy options and scenarios. Third, the system is easy to operate; even complex scenario runs are completed within minutes.« less

Developing Intuition: The Key to Creative Futures Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Southern, Stephen; Domzalski, Suzanne

Futures research involves speculation about alternative developments based upon existing data and potential choices. Effective futures research requires creativity in scientific practice rather than an overemphasis on reason. In discussing the important role of intuition in futures research, characteristics of creative scientists are reviewed and…

Impact of post-colposcopy management on women's long-term worries: results from the UK population-based TOMBOLA trial.

PubMed

Sharp, Linda; Cotton, Seonaidh; Cruickshank, Margaret; Gray, Nicola; Smart, Louise; Whynes, David; Little, Julian

2016-01-01

Effective cervical screening reduces cancer incidence and mortality. However, these benefits may be accompanied by some harms, potentially including, adverse psychological impacts. Studies suggest women may have concerns about various specific issues, such as cervical cancer. To compare worries about cervical cancer, future fertility, having sex, and general health between women managed by alternative policies at colposcopy. Multicentre individually-randomised controlled trial, nested within the National Health Service Cervical Screening Programmes. UK. 1515 women, aged 20-59 years, with low-grade cytology who attended colposcopy during February 2001-October 2002, were randomised to immediate loop excision or punch biopsies with recall for treatment if cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)2/3 was confirmed. Women completed questionnaires at recruitment and after 12, 18, 24 and 30 months. Outcomes were prevalence of worries at each time-point (point prevalence) and at any time-point during follow-up (12-30 months; cumulative prevalence). Primary analysis was by intention-to-treat (ITT); secondary per-protocol analysis compared groups according to management received among women with an abnormal transformation zone. Cumulative prevalence of worries was: cervical cancer 40%; having sex 26%, future fertility 24%, and general health 60%. In ITT analyses, there were no statistically significant differences between management arms in cumulative or point prevalence of any of the worries. In per-protocol analyses, between-group differences were significant only for future fertility; cumulative prevalence was highest in women who underwent punch biopsies and treatment. There is no difference in the prevalence of specific worries in women randomised to alternative post-colposcopy management policies. 34841617. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Performance Testing of a High Temperature Linear Alternator for Stirling Convertors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metscher, Jonathan; Geng, Steven

2016-01-01

The NASA Glenn Research Center has conducted performance testing of a high temperature linear alternator (HTLA) in support of Stirling power convertor development for potential future Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS). The high temperature linear alternator is a modified version of that used in Sunpowers Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), and is capable of operation at temperatures up to 200 C. Increasing the temperature capability of the linear alternator could expand the mission space of future Stirling RPS designs. High temperature Neodymium-Iron-Boron (Nd-Fe-B) magnets were selected for the HTLA application, and were fully characterized and tested prior to uses. Higher temperature epoxy for alternator assembly was also selected and tested for thermal stability and strength. A characterization test was performed on the HTLA to measure its performance at various amplitudes, loads, and temperatures. HTLA endurance testing at 200 C is currently underway.

Performance Testing of a High Temperature Linear Alternator for Stirling Convertors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metscher, Jonathan F.; Geng, Steven M.

2016-01-01

The NASA Glenn Research Center has conducted performance testing of a high temperature linear alternator (HTLA) in support of Stirling power convertor development for potential future Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS). The high temperature linear alternator is a modified version of that used in Sunpower's Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), and is capable of operation at temperatures up to 200 deg. Increasing the temperature capability of the linear alternator could expand the mission set of future Stirling RPS designs. High temperature Neodymium-Iron-Boron (Nd-Fe-B) magnets were selected for the HTLA application, and were fully characterized and tested prior to use. Higher temperature epoxy for alternator assembly was also selected and tested for thermal stability and strength. A characterization test was performed on the HTLA to measure its performance at various amplitudes, loads, and temperatures. HTLA endurance testing at 200 deg is currently underway.

Need for Systematic Retrofit Analysis in Multifamily Buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malhotra, Mini; Im, Piljae

2014-01-01

Multifamily housing offers high potential for energy savings through retrofits. A comprehensive energy audit with systematic evaluation of alternative energy measures is one of the key steps to realizing the full energy savings potential. However, this potential often remains unrealized when the selection of measures is (1) based on a one-size-fits-all approach originating from accustomed practices, (2) intended merely to meet code-compliance requirements, and/or (3) influenced by owner renter split incentive. In such cases, the benefits of comprehensive energy auditing are disregarded in view of the apparent difficulty in diagnosing multifamily buildings, evaluating alternative measures, and installing customized sets ofmore » measures. This paper highlights some of the barriers encountered in a multifamily housing retrofit project in Georgia and demonstrates the merits of systematic retrofit analysis by identifying opportunities for higher energy savings and improved comfort and indoor air quality that were missed in this project. The study uses a whole-building energy analysis conducted for a 10-unit, low-rise, multifamily building of a 110-unit apartment complex. The analysis projected a 24% energy savings from the measures installed in the building with a payback period of 10 years. Further analysis with a systematic evaluation of alternative measures showed that without compromising on the objectives of durability, livability, and appearance of the building, energy savings of up to 34% were achievable with a payback period of 7 years. The paper concludes by outlining recommendations that may benefit future retrofit projects by improving the audit process, streamlining tasks, and achieving higher energy savings.« less

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

2017-05-23

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

Survival of the hospital emergency department: strategic alternatives for the future.

PubMed

Widra, L S; Fottler, M D

1988-01-01

Diverse and pervasive environmental forces are reshaping hospital emergency services as hospitals strive to respond to consumer preferences related to cost and convenience. Complacency can no longer serve as a standard operating procedure for hospital emergency departments competing against lower-priced, consumer-oriented, free-standing facilities. Strategic alternatives, a five-step strategy for survival and growth, and a projection of future models of hospital emergency services are examined.

Possible Alternatives to the Supermassive Black Hole at the Galactic Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharov, A. F.

2015-12-01

Now there are two basic observational techniques to investigate a gravitational potential at the Galactic Center, namely, (a) monitoring the orbits of bright stars near the Galactic Center to reconstruct a gravitational potential; (b) measuring the size and shape of shadows around black hole giving an alternative possibility to evaluate black hole parameters in mm-band with VLBI-technique. At the moment, one can use a small relativistic correction approach for stellar orbit analysis (however, in the future the approximation will not be precise enough due to enormous progress of observational facilities) while for smallest structure analysis in VLBI observations one really needs a strong gravitational field approximation. We discuss results of observations, their conventional interpretations, tensions between observations and models and possible hints for a new physics from the observational data and tensions between observations and interpretations. We discuss an opportunity to use a Schwarzschild metric for data interpretation or we have to use more exotic models such as Reissner-Nordstrom or Schwarzschild-de-Sitter metrics for better fits.

Landscape establishment of woody ornamentals grown in alternative wood-based container substrates

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Due to concerns over future pine bark (PB) availability for container plant production, recent research has focused on evaluating suitable alternatives. For alternatives to be considered suitable substrate replacements, they must not only have desirable characteristics as a container substrate (e.g....

Utilization of waste cooking oil as an alternative fuel for Turkey.

PubMed

Arslan, Ridvan; Ulusoy, Yahya

2017-04-03

This study is based on three essential considerations concerning biodiesel obtained from waste cooking oil: diesel engine emissions of biodiesel produced from waste cooking oil, its potential in Turkey, and policies of the Turkish government about environmentally friendly alternative fuels. Emission tests have been realized with 35.8 kW, four-cylinder, four-stroke, direct injection diesel tractor engine. Test results are compared with Euro non-road emission standards for diesel fuel and five different blends of biodiesel production from waste cooking oil. The results of the experimental study show that the best blends are B10 and B20 as they show the lowest emission level. The other dimensions of the study include potential analysis of waste cooking oil as diesel fuels, referring to fuel price policies applied in the past, and proposed future policies about the same issues. It was also outlined some conclusions and recommendations in connection with recycling of waste oils as alternative fuels.

An approach for the anticipatory and participatory management of current and future flood risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luther, J.

2012-04-01

Despite the fact that many measures to attenuate flood hazards and reduce vulnerabilities are being implemented, adverse effects of floods are ever-increasing in most parts of the world. On the one hand this holds true for economically and/or demographically growing regions. On the other hand this applies also to areas that face population shrinkage and economic problems. Such flood risks occur in human-environment systems and are subject to dynamics caused by a number of drivers such as climate change, land-use changes, and others. Many drivers evolve slowly over time or show time-lag effects and long return periods. Moreover, certain decisions may determine the control actions of the following decades. At present, current flood risks are mostly determined based on historic developments and the ex post analysis of flood events. Approaches that look at the future dynamics of both hazards and vulnerable elements ex ante in an integrated manner are rare. Instead, future hazard scenarios are often just overlaid with current socio-economic data, which poses a strong inconsistency. Usually the focus lies on rather short-term, specific or local problems. But many developments and measures show their effects only after long time periods and when considering the whole catchment area. This calls for a holistic and long-term view into the future and implies the challenge of dealing with many uncertainties due to the system's complexity. In order to anticipate and react to these developments, this contribution suggests developing a flexible, yet holistic approach to design, analyse and evaluate alternative futures of such human-environment systems. These futures follow a scenario understanding that considers both specific (current) factor constellations as well as consistent assumptions on autonomous developments (so-called development frameworks) and potentials for control (strategic alternatives) of the interacting entities that influence flood risk. Different scenario concepts and the application of respective techniques are thus reviewed and incorporated with regard to their suitability for an integrated management of current and future flood risks. In particular, "hybrid scenarios" with qualitative and quantitative components represented by nested models as well as assumptions across different spatiotemporal scales, respectively, are suggested for dealing with the uncertainties when assessing flood risks throughout a system's possible evolution. The (initially top-down developed) approach and its components will be briefly presented. These "scenario products" could later serve as a stimulus for discussions that bring together different actors and enhance - and eventually legitimise - the scenarios further in a "scenario process": (1) A first step is the conceptualisation of a flood risk system following the SPRC-model. Its physical geographical and anthropogenic factors may either be subject to autonomous trends, target-oriented control, or facultative system behaviour (e.g. dike breaches). With this concept, the integration of different processes and scales is aspired. (2) Secondly, it is conceptually shown how the risk cascade for present and future states of the flood risk system can be calculated based on coupled models ranging from climate change projections to a damage simulation models. (3) Thirdly, ways to develop socioeconomic storylines for the development frameworks and guiding principles for the strategic alternatives are presented and the futures are combined. This involves making plausible and consistent assumptions for many system factors and their drivers and finding ways to harmonise existing data for the same areas and time steps. (4) Fourthly, selected futures can be analysed and evaluated ex ante applying the coupled models of the second step to derive the emerging flood risks. The evaluation addresses, amongst other aspects, the identification of (i) the sensitivity of all scenarios against the current strategic alternative; (ii) the resulting risks when applying different strategic alternatives against one selected scenario; (iii) the efficiency (as cost-effectiveness) and robustness of one selected strategic alternative against the different scenarios; and (iv) the model uncertainty, for example caused by different climate downscaling methods. It is of growing importance to place any scenario/simulation results in a societal or even individual context and confront them with the perspectives of the people potentially affected. Only this yields a holistic picture and may lead to sustainable, comprehensible decisions. The approach is partly exemplified with research conducted in Saxony (Germany) and the Elbe River catchment in Central Europe and concentrates on river or plain floods, neglecting water quality issues.

An fMRI investigation of the relationship between future imagination and cognitive flexibility

PubMed Central

Roberts, R.P.; Wiebels, K.; Sumner, R.L.; van Mulukom, V.; Grady, C.L.; Schacter, D.L.; Addis, D.R.

2016-01-01

While future imagination is largely considered to be a cognitive process grounded in default mode network activity, studies have shown that future imagination recruits regions in both default mode and frontoparietal control networks. In addition, it has recently been shown that the ability to imagine the future is associated with cognitive flexibility, and that tasks requiring cognitive flexibility result in increased coupling of the default mode network with frontoparietal control and salience networks. In the current study, we investigated the neural correlates underlying the association between cognitive flexibility and future imagination in two ways. First, we experimentally varied the degree of cognitive flexibility required during future imagination by manipulating the disparateness of episodic details contributing to imagined events. To this end, participants generated episodic details (persons, locations, objects) within three social spheres; during fMRI scanning they were presented with sets of three episodic details all taken from the same social sphere (Congruent condition) or different social spheres (Incongruent condition) and required to imagine a future event involving the three details. We predicted that, relative to the Congruent condition, future simulation in the Incongruent condition would be associated with increased activity in regions of the default mode, frontoparietal and salience networks. Second, we hypothesized that individual differences in cognitive flexibility, as measured by performance on the Alternate Uses Task, would correspond to individual differences in the brain regions recruited during future imagination. A task partial least squares (PLS) analysis showed that the Incongruent condition resulted in an increase in activity in regions in salience networks (e.g. the insula) but, contrary to our prediction, reduced activity in many regions of the default mode network (including the hippocampus). A subsequent functional connectivity (within-subject seed PLS) analysis showed that the insula exhibited increased coupling with default mode regions during the Incongruent condition. Finally, a behavioral PLS analysis showed that individual differences in cognitive flexibility were associated with differences in activity in a number of regions from frontoparietal, salience and default-mode networks during both future imagination conditions, further highlighting that the cognitive flexibility underlying future imagination is grounded in the complex interaction of regions in these networks. PMID:27908591

The Stability and Validity of Automated Vocal Analysis in Preverbal Preschoolers With Autism Spectrum Disorder

PubMed Central

Woynaroski, Tiffany; Oller, D. Kimbrough; Keceli-Kaysili, Bahar; Xu, Dongxin; Richards, Jeffrey A.; Gilkerson, Jill; Gray, Sharmistha; Yoder, Paul

2017-01-01

Theory and research suggest that vocal development predicts “useful speech” in preschoolers with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but conventional methods for measurement of vocal development are costly and time consuming. This longitudinal correlational study examines the reliability and validity of several automated indices of vocalization development relative to an index derived from human coded, conventional communication samples in a sample of preverbal preschoolers with ASD. Automated indices of vocal development were derived using software that is presently “in development” and/or only available for research purposes and using commercially available Language ENvironment Analysis (LENA) software. Indices of vocal development that could be derived using the software available for research purposes: (a) were highly stable with a single day-long audio recording, (b) predicted future spoken vocabulary to a degree that was nonsignificantly different from the index derived from conventional communication samples, and (c) continued to predict future spoken vocabulary even after controlling for concurrent vocabulary in our sample. The score derived from standard LENA software was similarly stable, but was not significantly correlated with future spoken vocabulary. Findings suggest that automated vocal analysis is a valid and reliable alternative to time intensive and expensive conventional communication samples for measurement of vocal development of preverbal preschoolers with ASD in research and clinical practice. PMID:27459107

Error models for official mortality forecasts.

PubMed

Alho, J M; Spencer, B D

1990-09-01

"The Office of the Actuary, U.S. Social Security Administration, produces alternative forecasts of mortality to reflect uncertainty about the future.... In this article we identify the components and assumptions of the official forecasts and approximate them by stochastic parametric models. We estimate parameters of the models from past data, derive statistical intervals for the forecasts, and compare them with the official high-low intervals. We use the models to evaluate the forecasts rather than to develop different predictions of the future. Analysis of data from 1972 to 1985 shows that the official intervals for mortality forecasts for males or females aged 45-70 have approximately a 95% chance of including the true mortality rate in any year. For other ages the chances are much less than 95%." excerpt

Innovating Training through Immersive Environments: Generation Y, Exploratory Learning, and Serious Games

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gendron, Gerald

2012-01-01

Over the next decade, those entering Service and Joint Staff positions within the military will come from a different generation than the current leadership. They will come from Generation Y and have differing preferences for learning. Immersive learning environments like serious games and virtual world initiatives can complement traditional training methods to provide a better overall training program for staffs. Generation Y members desire learning methods which are relevant and interactive, regardless of whether they are delivered over the internet or in person. This paper focuses on a project undertaken to assess alternative training methods to teach special operations staffs. It provides a summary of the needs analysis used to consider alternatives and to better posture the Department of Defense for future training development.

International data collection and analysis. Task 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1979-04-01

Commercial nuclear power has grown to the point where 13 nations now operate commercial nuclear power plants. Another four countries should join this list before the end of 1980. In the Nonproliferation Alternative Systems Assessment Program (NASAP), the US DOE is evaluating a series of alternate possible power systems. The objective is to determine practical nuclear systems which could reduce proliferation risk while still maintaining the benefits of nuclear power. Part of that effort is the development of a data base denoting the energy needs, resources, technical capabilities, commitment to nuclear power, and projected future trends for various non-US countries.more » The data are presented by country for each of 28 non-US countries. This volume contains compiled data on Mexico, Netherlands, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, and Spain.« less

How robust is a robust policy? A comparative analysis of alternative robustness metrics for supporting robust decision analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2015-04-01

In response to climate and socio-economic change, in various policy domains there is increasingly a call for robust plans or policies. That is, plans or policies that performs well in a very large range of plausible futures. In the literature, a wide range of alternative robustness metrics can be found. The relative merit of these alternative conceptualizations of robustness has, however, received less attention. Evidently, different robustness metrics can result in different plans or policies being adopted. This paper investigates the consequences of several robustness metrics on decision making, illustrated here by the design of a flood risk management plan. A fictitious case, inspired by a river reach in the Netherlands is used. The performance of this system in terms of casualties, damages, and costs for flood and damage mitigation actions is explored using a time horizon of 100 years, and accounting for uncertainties pertaining to climate change and land use change. A set of candidate policy options is specified up front. This set of options includes dike raising, dike strengthening, creating more space for the river, and flood proof building and evacuation options. The overarching aim is to design an effective flood risk mitigation strategy that is designed from the outset to be adapted over time in response to how the future actually unfolds. To this end, the plan will be based on the dynamic adaptive policy pathway approach (Haasnoot, Kwakkel et al. 2013) being used in the Dutch Delta Program. The policy problem is formulated as a multi-objective robust optimization problem (Kwakkel, Haasnoot et al. 2014). We solve the multi-objective robust optimization problem using several alternative robustness metrics, including both satisficing robustness metrics and regret based robustness metrics. Satisficing robustness metrics focus on the performance of candidate plans across a large ensemble of plausible futures. Regret based robustness metrics compare the performance of a candidate plan with the performance of other candidate plans across a large ensemble of plausible futures. Initial results suggest that the simplest satisficing metric, inspired by the signal to noise ratio, results in very risk averse solutions. Other satisficing metrics, which handle the average performance and the dispersion around the average separately, provide substantial additional insights into the trade off between the average performance, and the dispersion around this average. In contrast, the regret-based metrics enhance insight into the relative merits of candidate plans, while being less clear on the average performance or the dispersion around this performance. These results suggest that it is beneficial to use multiple robustness metrics when doing a robust decision analysis study. Haasnoot, M., J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker and J. Ter Maat (2013). "Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A New Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a Deeply Uncertain World." Global Environmental Change 23(2): 485-498. Kwakkel, J. H., M. Haasnoot and W. E. Walker (2014). "Developing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world." Climatic Change.

Regional economic analysis of current and proposed management alternatives for Rappahannock River Valley National Wildlife Refuge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koontz, Lynne; Sexton, Natalie; Donovan, Ryan

2009-01-01

The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan must describe the desired future conditions of a refuge and provide long-range guidance and management direction to achieve refuge purposes. The Rappahannock River Valley National Wildlife Refuge (refuge) is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the Comprehensive Conservation Plan. The Comprehensive Conservation Plan for the refuge must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed refuge management strategies. The purpose of this study was to assess the regional economic implications associated with draft Comprehensive Conservation Plan management strategies. Special interest groups and local residents often criticize a change in refuge management, especially if there is a perceived negative impact to the local economy. Having objective data on economic impacts may show that these fears are overstated. Quite often, the extent of economic benefits a refuge provides to a local community is not fully recognized, yet at the same time the effects of negative changes is overstated. Spending associated with refuge recreational activities, such as wildlife viewing and hunting, can generate considerable tourist activity for surrounding communities. Additionally, refuge personnel typically spend considerable amounts of money purchasing supplies in local stores, repairing equipment and purchasing fuel at the local service stations, and reside and spend their salaries in the local community. For refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan planning, a regional economic assessment provides a means of estimating how current management (no action alternative) and proposed management activities (alternatives) could affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of information: (1) it illustrates a refuge's contribution to the local community; and (2) it can help in determining whether local economic effects are or are not a real concern in choosing among management alternatives. It is important to note that the economic value of a refuge encompasses more than just the impacts of the regional economy. Refuges also provide substantial nonmarket values (values for items not exchanged in established markets), such as maintaining endangered species, preserving wetlands, educating future generations, and adding stability to the ecosystem. However, quantifying these types of nonmarket values was beyond the scope of this study because of time and budget constraints.

Handbook for Conducting Future Studies in Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phi Delta Kappa, Bloomington, IN.

This handbook is designed to aid school administrators, policy-makers, and teachers in bringing a "futures orientation" to their schools. The first part of the book describes a "futuring process" developed as a tool for examining alternative future probabilities. It consists of a series of diverging and converging techniques that alternately…

Supporting research and technology for automotive Stirling engine development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tomazic, W. A.

1980-01-01

The technology advancement topics described are a part of the supporting research and technology (SRT) program conducted to support the major Stirling engine development program. This support focuses on developing alternatives or backups to the engine development in critical areas. These areas are materials, seals control, combustors and system analysis. Specific objectives and planned milestone schedules for future activities as now envisioned are described. These planned SRT activities are related to the timeline of the engine development program that they must support.

Future Directions and Challenges in Shell Stability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arbocz, Johann

1998-01-01

An answer is sought to the question of today, in 1997, after so many years of concentrated research effort in designing buckling critical thin walled shells, why one cannot do any better than using the rather conservative Lower Bound Design Philosophy of the sixties. It will be shown that with the establishment of Initial Imperfection Data Banks and the introduction of Probabilistic Design Procedures one has a viable alternative, that when used judiciously, may lead to improved shell design recommendations.

Nation-Building Modeling and Resource Allocation Via Dynamic Programming

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

Figure 2. RAND Study Models[59:98,115] (WMA) and used both the k-Nearest Neighbor ( KNN ) and Nearest Centroid (NC) algorithms to classify future features...The study found that KNN performed bet- ter than NC with 85% or greater accuracy in all test cases. The methodology was adopted for use under the...analysis feature of the model. 3.7.1 The No Surge Alternative. On the 10th of January 2007, President George W. Bush delivered a speech to the American

Long-Term Management Strategy for Dredged Material Disposal for Naval Facilities at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii Phase III - Analysis of Alternatives and Development of an LTMS

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-03-01

are needed to restrict contaminants losses via the leachate and volatilization pathways. Plant uptake testing indicated a potential need to restrict...or control future use of the site, to amend the material with soil additives, to phytoremediate , or to provide a final surface cover of clean...initial release including toxicity and bioaccumulation, effluent, runoff, leachate , plant uptake, upland and aquatic animal uptake, and

The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

2016-04-01

This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In this context it is not surprising that the increased hydrologic variability and uncertainty produced by many climate risk analyses bedevil water resource decision making. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) approach builds on work found in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework" which provide guidance of vulnerability assessments. It guides practitioners through a "Level of Concern" analysis where climate vulnerabilities are analyzed to produce actionable alternatives and decisions.

Impact of Future Cable Television Technology. Final Summary Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY. Telecommunications Research Center.

Technological alternatives in the evolution of present cable television systems into broadband communication networks (BCN) were assessed. Cost estimates were made for alternatives, and the impact of alternatives on BCN development was investigated. An historical study of cable television technology was made which related it to other…

Educational Telecommunications Alternatives for Alaska. Product 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilke, Jennifer L.; And Others

This study explores a wide variety of technical alternatives, from equipment needs and on-the-ground system design, to equipment operation and suggested applications for department activities, both now and in the future. Some suggested alternatives include (1) communication satellites, (2) one way audio transmission, (3) one and two way hard copy…

Proceedings of the conference on alternative energy sources for Texas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rothman, I.N.

1981-01-01

Four primary areas of study for alternative energy sources for Texas are considered. These are: energy demand supply and economics; prospects for energy resources (oil, lignite, coal, nuclear, goethermal and solar) and conservation; financial and technical constraints; and future planning. The following papers are presented: US energy outlook to 1990; energy supply and demand projections; comparative economics of solar energy in the generation of big power; gas present and future prospects; prospects for enhanced recovery of oil in Texas; the outlook for coal in USA; implementation of nuclear power in Texas; future outlook - geopressured-geothermal energy for Texas; future prospectsmore » for conservation and solar energy; financing and money supply constraints; technical constraints to energy supply increase; planning for the future - the crisis that drones on. Two papers have been abstracted separately.« less

Beyond Bounded Solutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Enzer, Selwyn

1977-01-01

Futures research offers new tools for forecasting and for designing alternative intervention strategies. Interactive cross-impact modeling is presented as a useful method for identifying future events. (Author/MV)

[Scenario analysis--a method for long-term planning].

PubMed

Stavem, K

2000-01-10

Scenarios are known from the film industry, as detailed descriptions of films. This has given name to scenario analysis, a method for long term planning using descriptions of composite future pictures. This article is an introduction to the scenario method. Scenarios describe plausible, not necessarily probable, developments. They focus on problems and questions that decision makers must be aware of and prepare to deal with, and the consequences of alternative decisions. Scenarios are used in corporate and governmental planning, and they can be useful and complementary to traditional planning and extrapolation of past experience. The method is particularly useful in a rapidly changing world with shifting external conditions.

Analysis of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards for Light Trucks and Increased Alternative Fuel Use

EIA Publications

2002-01-01

Sen. Frank Murkowski, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested an analysis of selected portions of Senate Bill 1766 (S. 1766, the Energy Policy Act of 2002), House Resolution 4 (the Securing America's Future Energy Act of 2001) and Senate Bill 517 (S. 517, the Energy Policy Act of 2002). In response, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has prepared a series of analyses showing the impacts of each of the selected provisions of the bills on energy supply, demand, and prices, macroeconomic variables where feasible, import dependence, and emissions.

Integrating ecosystem services analysis into scenario planning practice: accounting for street tree benefits with i-Tree valuation in Central Texas.

PubMed

Hilde, Thomas; Paterson, Robert

2014-12-15

Scenario planning continues to gain momentum in the United States as an effective process for building consensus on long-range community plans and creating regional visions for the future. However, efforts to integrate more sophisticated information into the analytical framework to help identify important ecosystem services have lagged in practice. This is problematic because understanding the tradeoffs of land consumption patterns on ecological integrity is central to mitigating the environmental degradation caused by land use change and new development. In this paper we describe how an ecosystem services valuation model, i-Tree, was integrated into a mainstream scenario planning software tool, Envision Tomorrow, to assess the benefits of public street trees for alternative future development scenarios. The tool is then applied to development scenarios from the City of Hutto, TX, a Central Texas Sustainable Places Project demonstration community. The integrated tool represents a methodological improvement for scenario planning practice, offers a way to incorporate ecosystem services analysis into mainstream planning processes, and serves as an example of how open source software tools can expand the range of issues available for community and regional planning consideration, even in cases where community resources are limited. The tool also offers room for future improvements; feasible options include canopy analysis of various future land use typologies, as well as a generalized street tree model for broader U.S. application. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Education for an Interdependent Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brodbelt, Samuel

1979-01-01

Calls for social studies teachers to emphasize future studies and the implications of growing global interdependence. Students should learn about alternative futures, the possible decline of nationalism, overpopulation and food resources, the ecological system and natural resources, and ways of achieving interdependence. (AV)

Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.

This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to includemore » alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.« less

Drug induced liver injury with analysis of alternative causes as confounding variables.

PubMed

Teschke, Rolf; Danan, Gaby

2018-04-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is rare compared to the worldwide frequent acute or chronic liver diseases. Therefore, patients included in series of suspected DILI are at high risk of not having DILI, whereby alternative causes may confound the DILI diagnosis. The aim of this review is to evaluate published case series of DILI for alternative causes. Relevant studies were identified using a computerized search of the Medline database for publications from 1993 through 30 October 2017. We used the following terms: drug hepatotoxicity, drug induced liver injury, hepatotoxic drugs combined with diagnosis, causality assessment and alternative causes. Alternative causes as variables confounding the DILI diagnosis emerged in 22 published DILI case series, ranging from 4 to 47%. Among 13 335 cases of suspected DILI, alternative causes were found to be more likely in 4555 patients (34.2%), suggesting that the suspected DILI was probably not DILI. Biliary diseases such as biliary obstruction, cholangitis, choledocholithiasis, primary biliary cholangitis and primary sclerosing cholangitis were among the most missed diagnoses. Alternative causes included hepatitis B, C and E, cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus, ischemic hepatitis, cardiac hepatopathy, autoimmune hepatitis, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and alcoholic liver disease. In more than one-third of published global DILI case series, alternative causes as published in these reports confounded the DILI diagnosis. In the future, published DILI case series should include only patients with secured DILI diagnosis, preferentially established by prospective use of scored items provided by robust diagnostic algorithms such as the updated Roussel Uclaf causality assessment method. © 2018 The British Pharmacological Society.

Health economic evaluation: important principles and methodology.

PubMed

Rudmik, Luke; Drummond, Michael

2013-06-01

To discuss health economic evaluation and improve the understanding of common methodology. This article discusses the methodology for the following types of economic evaluations: cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, cost-benefit, and economic modeling. Topics include health-state utility measures, the quality-adjusted life year (QALY), uncertainty analysis, discounting, decision tree analysis, and Markov modeling. Economic evaluation is the comparative analysis of alternative courses of action in terms of both their costs and consequences. With increasing health care expenditure and limited resources, it is important for physicians to consider the economic impact of their interventions. Understanding common methodology involved in health economic evaluation will improve critical appraisal of the literature and optimize future economic evaluations. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Knowledge and acceptability of alternative HIV prevention bio-medical products among MSM who bareback.

PubMed

Nodin, N; Carballo-Diéguez, A; Ventuneac, A M; Balan, I C; Remien, R

2008-01-01

Condom use is the best available strategy to prevent HIV infection during sexual intercourse. However, since many people choose not to use condoms in circumstances in which HIV risk exists, alternatives to condom use for HIV prevention are needed. Currently there are several alternative bio-medical HIV-prevention products in different stages of development: microbicides, vaccines, post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Seventy-two men who have sex with men (MSM) who took part in a study on Internet use and intentional condomless anal intercourse were asked about these four products during a semi-structured interview. The questions explored knowledge and acceptability of all the products and willingness to participate in microbicide and vaccine trials. Qualitative analysis of the data suggests that these men had virtually no knowledge of PrEP, very limited knowledge of microbicides, some information about PEP and considerably more knowledge about vaccines. Reactions towards the products were generally positive except for PrEP, for which reactions were polarized as either enthusiastic or negative. With the exception of PrEP, many men expressed willingness to use the products in the future. Most men would be willing to participate in trials for microbicides and vaccines if given basic reassurances. Concerns over negative side effects and preoccupation with possible infection were some of the motives given for non-willingness to participate in a vaccine trial. These results should inform the development of future trials of biomedical prevention products.

Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

PubMed

Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Apprenticeship, Alternance, Dual System: Dead Ends or Highways to the Future?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertrand, Olivier; And Others

1994-01-01

In the face of chronic youth unemployment, decision makers in many countries are questioning the role and effectiveness of alternance between school-based vocational training and in-company work experience. This notion applies to three very different realities: training courses offered as an alternative to traditional school-based training for…

Current Faculty Development Practices for Alternative Delivery Systems in Christian Higher Education Institutions: A Qualitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yates, Steven Lowell

2009-01-01

This research study was an investigation of current faculty development practices for alternative delivery systems. Attention was given to faculty development in general as well as specific facets of faculty development for alternative delivery systems. Future or intended faculty development practices were pursued, along with factors that…

Alternate Futures for 2025. Security Planning to Avoid Surprise.

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-09-01

our thanks go to the 2025 study chairman, Lt Gen Jay W. Kelley, who provided great leadership and many helpful comments throughout the Alternate...Futures development. Also providing great leadership and countless hours of work to improve our product was the study director, Col Richard Szafranski. Dr...affairs. A Global worldview implies the US will seek a world leadership role. A TeK TeK was defined as the ability to employ technology. A TeK

Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

PubMed

Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae C; Perry, Allison L

2013-01-01

Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.

Management of Abnormal Uterine Bleeding with Emphasis on Alternatives to Hysterectomy.

PubMed

Billow, Megan R; El-Nashar, Sherif A

2016-09-01

Abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB) is a common problem that negatively impacts a woman's health-related quality of life and activity. Initial medical treatment includes hormonal and nonhormonal medications. If bleeding persists and no structural abnormalities are present, a repeat trial of medical therapy, a levonorgestrel intrauterine system, or an endometrial ablation can be used dependent on future fertility wishes. The levonorgestrel intrauterine system and endometrial ablation are effective, less invasive, and safe alternatives to a hysterectomy in women with AUB. A hysterectomy is the definitive treatment of AUB irrespective of the suspected cause when alternative treatments fail. Future studies should focus on detection of predictors for treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incorporating future change into current conservation planning: Evaluating tidal saline wetland migration along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

2015-11-02

In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, quantified the potential for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. Our analyses focused exclusively on tidal saline wetlands (that is, mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats), and we combined these diverse tidal saline wetland ecosystems into a single grouping, “tidal saline wetland.” Collectively, our approach and findings can provide useful information for scientists and environmental planners working to develop future-focused adaptation strategies for conserving coastal landscapes and the ecosystem goods and services provided by tidal saline wetlands. The primary product of this work is a public dataset that identifies locations where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is expected to occur under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. In addition to identifying areas where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is possible because of the absence of barriers, these data also identify locations where landward migration of these wetlands could be prevented by barriers associated with current urbanization, future urbanization, and levees.

The Future Impact of Wind on BPA Power System Ancillary Services

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; McManus, Bart

Wind power is growing in a very fast pace as an alternative generating resource. As the ratio of wind power over total system capacity increases, the impact of wind on various system aspects becomes significant. This paper presents a methodology to study the future impact of wind on BPA power system ancillary services including load following and regulation. Existing approaches for similar analysis include dispatch model simulation and standard deviation evaluation. The methodology proposed in this paper uses historical data and stochastic processes to simulate the load balancing processes in BPA power system. Then capacity, ramp rate and ramp durationmore » characteristics are extracted from the simulation results, and load following and regulation requirements are calculated accordingly. It mimics the actual power system operations therefore the results can be more realistic yet the approach is convenient to perform. Further, the ramp rate and ramp duration data obtained from the analysis can be used to evaluate generator response or maneuverability and energy requirement, respectively, additional to the capacity requirement.« less

Fuel cells for automotive powertrains-A techno-economic assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Peter; Schmid, Stephan A.

With the objective of identifying the hurdles currently preventing a widespread application of fuel cell technology in passenger cars an assessment of technical and economic parameters is carried out. Patent and publication analysis is used to assess current status of fuel cell technology regarding its position on technology life cycle. S-curve methodology leads to the conclusion that further scientific activity is to be expected but for today's low-temperature PEM fuel cell technology might level by 2015. Technical analysis identifies power density and platinum loading as parameters for which further improvements are necessary in order to satisfy future customer needs. A detailed cost evaluation suggests that in future for high production volumes (approx. 1 million vehicles cumulative) significantly lower costs for fuel cell stacks (12-40 kW -1) and systems (35-83 kW -1) will be viable. Reducing costs to such a level will have to be the main focus for upcoming research activities in order to make fuel cell driven road vehicles a competitive alternative.

Alternative approaches to the taxation of heavy vehicles

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

This report contains recommendations that are applicable to federal and state governments for evaluating alternatives to the taxation of heavy vehicles. An evaluation procedure and general assessments and recommendations on future activities are pres...

Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2014-02-01

To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Clinical reasoning in nursing, concept analysis].

PubMed

Côté, Sarah; St-Cyr Tribble, Denise

2012-12-01

Nurses work in situations of complex care requiring great clinical reasoning abilities. In literature, clinical reasoning is often confused with other concepts and it has no consensual definition. To conduct a concept analysis of a nurse's clinical reasoning in order to clarify, define and distinguish it from the other concepts as well as to better understand clinical reasoning. Rodgers's method of concept analysis was used, after literature was retrieved with the use of clinical reasoning, concept analysis, nurse, intensive care and decision making as key-words. The use of cognition, cognitive strategies, a systematic approach of analysis and data interpretation, generating hypothesis and alternatives are attributes of clinical reasoning. The antecedents are experience, knowledge, memory, cues, intuition and data collection. The consequences are decision making, action, clues and problem resolution. This concept analysis helped to define clinical reasoning, to distinguish it from other concepts used synonymously and to guide future research.

32 CFR 989.8 - Analysis of alternatives.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Analysis of alternatives. 989.8 Section 989.8... ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS PROCESS (EIAP) § 989.8 Analysis of alternatives. (a) The Air Force must analyze... of reasonable alternatives, it may limit alternatives selected for detailed environmental analysis to...

48 CFR 1552.209-74 - Limitation of future contracting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Limitation of future contracting. 1552.209-74 Section 1552.209-74 Federal Acquisition Regulations System ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... Future Contracting, Alternate IV (TES) (APR 2004) (a) The parties to this contract agree that the...

48 CFR 1552.209-74 - Limitation of future contracting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Limitation of future contracting. 1552.209-74 Section 1552.209-74 Federal Acquisition Regulations System ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... Future Contracting, Alternate IV (TES) (APR 2004) (a) The parties to this contract agree that the...

Power from Ocean Waves.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newman, J. N.

1979-01-01

Discussed is the utilization of surface ocean waves as a potential source of power. Simple and large-scale wave power devices and conversion systems are described. Alternative utilizations, environmental impacts, and future prospects of this alternative energy source are detailed. (BT)

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

DOE PAGES

Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

2015-05-25

The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However,more » the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.« less

Analysis of alternative modifications for reducing backwater at the Interstate Highway 10 crossing of the Pearl River near Slidell, Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiche, Gregg J.; Gilbert, J.J.; Froehlich, David C.; Lee, Jonathan K.

1988-01-01

In April 1979 and April 1980, major flooding along the lower Pearl River caused extensive damage to homes located on the flood plain in the Slidell, Louisiana, area. In response to questions about causes of these floods and means of mitigating future floods, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, Office of Highways, and the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, used a two-dimensional finite-element surface-water flow-modeling system to study the effect of four alternative modifications for improving the hydraulic characteristics of the Interstate Highway 10 crossing of the flood plain near Slidell. The analysis used the model's capability to simulate changes in flood-plain topography, flood-plain vegetative cover, and highway-embankment geometry. Compared with the existing highway crossing, the four alternative modifications reduce backwater and average velocities through bridge openings for a flood of the magnitude of the 1980 flood. The four alternatives also eliminate roadway overtopping during such a flood. For the four modifications, maximum backwater on the west side of the flood plain ranges from 0.3 to 1.1 feet and on the east side from 0.3 to 0.7 foot. Results of the alternative-model simulations show that backwater is greater on the west side of the flood plain than on the east side, but upstream from Interstate Highway 10 backwater decreases more rapidly in the upstream direction on the west side of the flood plain than on the east side. Downstream from Interstate Highway 10, modeling of the four alternatives indicates that backwater and drawdown still occur on the east and west sides of the flood plain, respectively, but are less than the values computed for the April 1980 flood with Interstate Highway 10 in place. In addition to other highway-crossing modifications, alternatives 2 and 3 include simulation of a new 2,000-foot bridge opening, and ,alternative 4 includes simulation of a 1,000-foot bridge opening. The new bridge conveys 25, 23, and 21 percent of the total computed discharge in alternatives 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The average velocity through the new bridge is 2.0, 1.9, and 3.4 feet per second for alternatives 2, 3, and 4, respectively.

KSC-2009-4332

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-07-30

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Phil McAlister, special assistant for Program Analysis in NASA's Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation, introduces the Augustine Commission, meeting in Cocoa Beach, Fla. At the request of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, NASA established the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee, known as the Augustine Commission. Chaired by Norman R. Augustine, retired chairman and CEO of Lockheed Martin Corp., the committee is conducting an independent review of ongoing U.S. human spaceflight plans and programs, as well as alternatives, to ensure the nation is pursuing the best trajectory for the future of human space flight - one that is safe, innovative, affordable, and sustainable. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

Alternative futures for Borneo show the value of integrating economic and conservation targets across borders

PubMed Central

Runting, Rebecca K.; Meijaard, Erik; Abram, Nicola K.; Wells, Jessie A.; Gaveau, David L.A.; Ancrenaz, Marc; Posssingham, Hugh P.; Wich, Serge A.; Ardiansyah, Fitrian; Gumal, Melvin T.; Ambu, Laurentius N.; Wilson, Kerrie A.

2015-01-01

Balancing economic development with international commitments to protect biodiversity is a global challenge. Achieving this balance requires an understanding of the possible consequences of alternative future scenarios for a range of stakeholders. We employ an integrated economic and environmental planning approach to evaluate four alternative futures for the mega-diverse island of Borneo. We show what could be achieved if the three national jurisdictions of Borneo coordinate efforts to achieve their public policy targets and allow a partial reallocation of planned land uses. We reveal the potential for Borneo to simultaneously retain ∼50% of its land as forests, protect adequate habitat for the Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) and Bornean elephant (Elephas maximus borneensis), and achieve an opportunity cost saving of over US$43 billion. Such coordination would depend on enhanced information sharing and reforms to land-use planning, which could be supported by the increasingly international nature of economies and conservation efforts. PMID:25871635

New Futures School: An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaston, Caroline

New Futures School (NFS), located in Albuquerque, New Mexico, is a comprehensive program for adolescent parents. NFS is an alternative school of the Albuquerque Public Schools and is supported by a non-profit, community-based organization, New Futures, Inc. There are two departments of the NFS in-school program: the Perinatal Program, serving the…

Assessment of Subsurface Drainage Management Practices to Reduce Nitrogen Loadings Using AnnAGNPS

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of the Future Midwest Landscape project is to quantify current and future landscape services across the region and examine changes expected to occur as a result of two alternative drivers of future change: the growing demand for biofuels; and hypothetical increases in in...

Future Focusing: An Alternative to Long-Range Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peck, Robert D.

Characteristics of small college administration as it applies to the future are described. Consideration is given to the process for anticipating change in the circumstances surrounding colleges, identifying opportunities, and planning to take advantage of positive changes in the environment (i.e., future focused planning). The use of the Planning…

Management of Forested Landscapes: Simulations of three alternatives

Treesearch

Stephen G. Boyce; W. Henry McNab

1994-01-01

Forested landscapes can be managed to support variouscombinations of timber, biological diversity,esthetic values, and habitats. However, all such management decisions arechoices basedon opinions about future events. Opinions underlie managementdecisionsbecause thereis no way to jump into the future, verify a future event, jump back to the present, and make a...

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 5: Workshop proceedings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Proceedings of a workshop conducted to identify and debate issues and impacts related to future transporation alternatives are presented. Results of the technology assessment of intercity transportation are reviewed.

Future Directions and Challenges in Shell Stability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arbocz, Johann

1997-01-01

An answer is sought to the question how comes that today, in 1997, after so many years of concentrated research effort, when it comes to designing buckling critical thin walled shells, one cannot do any better than using the rather conservative Lower Bound Design Philosophy of the sixties. It will be shown that with the establishment of Initial Imperfection Data Banks and the introduction of Probabilistic Design Procedures one has, what appears to be, a viable alternative that when used judiciously may lead step by step to improved shell design recommendations.

Organizational strategies for protection against back contamination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahoney, T. A.

1976-01-01

The organizational issues pertaining to the prevention of inbound contamination associated with possible Viking missions to Mars are considered. The completed Apollo missions, which returned samples from the moon, provide a convenient base for analysis of inbound contamination issues. Despite concern over the threat of inbound contamination from the moon and efforts to prevent back contamination, the back contamination efforts in the Apollo missions were considered ineffective had these missions encountered living organisms. Several alternatives for consideration in the design of future programs dealing with back contamination are examined and proposed for special consideration.

Constructing alternative futures

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Robert Huggett; John G. Greis

2013-01-01

The desired product of the Southern Forest Futures Project is a mechanism that will help southerners think about and prepare for future changes in their forests and the benefits they provide. Because any single projection of the world’s (or a region’s) biological, physical, and social systems has a high probability of being incorrect, the Futures Project instead...

Replacing Gasoline : Alternative Fuels for Light-Duty Vehicles

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1990-09-01

Among the several major issues that Congress addressed in the process of reauthorizing the Clean Air Act was the future role of alternative highway transportation fuels in reducing urban smog. As vehicular emissions control efficiencies rose past 90 ...

Fuel-conservative engine technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugan, J. F., Jr.; Mcaulay, J. E.; Reynolds, T. W.; Strack, W. C.

1975-01-01

Aircraft fuel consumption is discussed in terms of its efficient use, and the conversion of energy from sources other than petroleum. Topics discussed include: fuel from coal and oil shale, hydrogen deficiency of alternate sources, alternate fuels evaluation program, and future engines.

ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR AGRICULTURE IN IOWA, U.S.A.

EPA Science Inventory

The contributions of current industrial agricultural practices to environmental degradation and the social problems facing agricultural regions are well known. However, landscape-scale alternatives to current conditions have not been fully explored nor their potential impacts qua...

The outcomes of complementary and alternative medicine use among pregnant and birthing women: current trends and future directions.

PubMed

Steel, Amie; Adams, Jon; Sibbritt, David; Broom, Alex

2015-06-01

Complementary and alternative medicine is used by a substantial number of pregnant women and maternity care providers are often faced with the task of ensuring women are using safe and effective treatments while respecting a woman's right to autonomous decision-making. In the era of evidence-based medicine maternity health professionals are expected to draw upon the best available evidence when making clinical decisions and providing health advice. This review will outline the current trends in research evidence associated with the outcomes of complementary and alternative medicine use amongst pregnant and birthing women as well as highlight some potential directions for future development in this important yet largely unknown topic in contemporary maternity care.

Simulation of a proposed emergency outlet from Devils Lake, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2002-01-01

From 1993 to 2001, Devils Lake rose more than 25 feet, flooding farmland, roads, and structures around the lake and causing more than $400 million in damages in the Devils Lake Basin. In July 2001, the level of Devils Lake was at 1,448.0 feet above sea level1, which was the highest lake level in more than 160 years. The lake could continue to rise to several feet above its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet above sea level) in future years, causing extensive additional flooding in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin as well. The outlet simulation model described in this report was developed to determine the potential effects of various outlet alternatives on the future lake levels and water quality of Devils Lake.Lake levels of Devils Lake are controlled largely by precipitation on the lake surface, evaporation from the lake surface, and surface inflow. For this study, a monthly water-balance model was developed to compute the change in total volume of Devils Lake, and a regression model was used to estimate monthly water-balance data on the basis of limited recorded data. Estimated coefficients for the regression model indicated fitted precipitation on the lake surface was greater than measured precipitation in most months, fitted evaporation from the lake surface was less than estimated evaporation in most months, and ungaged inflow was about 2 percent of gaged inflow in most months. Dissolved sulfate was considered to be the key water-quality constituent for evaluating the effects of a proposed outlet on downstream water quality. Because large differences in sulfate concentrations existed among the various bays of Devils Lake, monthly water-balance data were used to develop detailed water and sulfate mass-balance models to compute changes in sulfate load for each of six major storage compartments in response to precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and outflow from each compartment. The storage compartments--five for Devils Lake and one for Stump Lake--were connected by bridge openings, culverts, or natural channels that restricted mixing between compartments. A numerical algorithm was developed to calculate inflow and outflow from each compartment. Sulfate loads for the storage compartments first were calculated using the assumptions that no interaction occurred between the bottom sediments and the water column and no wind- or buoyancy-induced mixing occurred between compartments. However, because the fitted sulfate loads did not agree with the estimated sulfate loads, which were obtained from recorded sulfate concentrations, components were added to the sulfate mass-balance model to account for the flux of sulfate between bottom sediments and the lake and for mixing between storage compartments. Mixing between compartments can occur during periods of open water because of wind and during periods of ice cover because of water-density differences between compartments. Sulfate loads calculated using the sulfate mass-balance model with sediment interaction and mixing between compartments closely matched sulfate loads computed from historical concentrations. The water and sulfate mass-balance models were used to calculate potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake and Stump Lake given potential future values of monthly precipitation, evaporation, and inflow. Potential future inputs were generated using a scenario approach and a stochastic approach. In the scenario approach, historical values of precipitation, evaporation, and inflow were repeated in the future for a particular sequence of historical years. In the stochastic approach, a statistical time-series model was developed to randomly generate potential future inputs. The scenario approach was used to evaluate the effectiveness of various outlet alternatives, and the stochastic approach was used to evaluate the hydrologic and water-quality effects of the potential outlet alternatives that were selected on the basis of the scenario analysis. Given potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations generated using either the scenario or stochastic approach and potential future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River receiving waters, daily outlet discharges could be calculated for virtually any outlet alternative. For the scenario approach, future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River were generated using the same sequence of years used for generating water-balance data for Devils Lake. For the stochastic approach, a procedure was developed for generating daily Sheyenne River flows and sulfate concentrations that were "in-phase" with the generated water-balance data for Devils Lake. Simulation results for the scenario approach indicated that neither of the West Bay outlet alternatives provided effective flood-damage reduction without exceeding downstream water-quality constraints. However, both Pelican Lake outlet alternatives provided significant flood-damage reduction with only minor downstream water-quality changes. The most effective alternative for controlling rising lake levels was a Pelican Lake outlet with a 480-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. However, this plan is costly because of the high pump capacity and the requirement of a control structure on Highway 19 to control the level of Pelican Lake. A less costly, though less effective for flood-damage reduction, plan is a Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The plan is less costly because the pump capacity is smaller and because the control structure on Highway 19 is not required. The less costly Pelican Lake alternative with a 450-milligramper- liter downstream sulfate constraint rather than a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint was identified by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as the preferred alternative for detailed design and engineering analysis. Simulation results for the stochastic approach indicated that the geologic history of lake-level fluctuations of Devils Lake for the past 2,500 years was consistent with a climatic history that consisted of two climate states--a wet state, similar to conditions during 1980-99, and a normal state, similar to conditions during 1950-78. The transition times between the wet and normal climatic periods occurred randomly. The average duration of the wet climatic periods was 20 years, and the average duration of the normal climatic periods was 120 years. The stochastic approach was used to generate 10,000 independent sequences of lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake for water years 2001-50. Each trace began with the same starting conditions, and the duration of the current wet cycle was generated randomly for each trace. Each trace was generated for the baseline (natural) condition and for the Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 450-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The outlet significantly lowered the probabilities of future lake-level increases within the next 50 years and did not substantially increase the probabilities of reaching low lake levels or poor water-quality conditions during the same period.

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Fuel Economy Improvement by Utilizing Thermoelectric Generator in Heavy-Duty Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Y. D.; Hu, T.; Su, C. Q.; Yuan, X. H.

2017-05-01

Recent advances in thermoelectric technology have made exhaust-based thermoelectric generators (TEGs) promising for recovery of waste heat. Utilization of exhaust-based TEGs in heavy-duty vehicles was studied in this work. Given that the generated power is limited, the alternator is still indispensable. To improve the fuel economy, the generated electricity must be integrated into the automotive electrical system and consumed by electrical loads. Therefore, two feasible ways of integrating the generated electricity into the automotive electrical system are discussed: one in which the original alternator works only under certain conditions, i.e., the "thermostat" strategy, and another in which a smaller alternator is adopted and works together with the TEG, i.e., the "cooperative work" strategy. The overall performance and efficiency are obtained through simulation analysis. The simulation results show that both methods can improve the fuel economy, but the former provides better results. Moreover, if the electrical loads can be properly modified, the fuel economy is further improved. These simulation results lay a solid foundation for application of TEGs in vehicles in the future.

Socio-economic analysis: a tool for assessing the potential of nanotechnologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brignon, Jean-Marc

2011-07-01

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has a long history, especially in the USA, of being used for the assessment of new regulation, new infrastructure and more recently for new technologies. Under the denomination of Socio-Economic Analysis (SEA), this concept is used in EU safety and environmental regulation, especially for the placing of chemicals on the market (REACh regulation) and the operation of industrial installations (Industrial Emissions Directive). As far as REACh and other EU legislation apply specifically to nanomaterials in the future, SEA might become an important assessment tool for nanotechnologies. The most important asset of SEA regarding nanomaterials, is the comparison with alternatives in socio-economic scenarios, which is key for the understanding of how a nanomaterial "socially" performs in comparison with its alternatives. "Industrial economics" methods should be introduced in SEAs to make industry and the regulator share common concepts and visions about economic competitiveness implications of regulating nanotechnologies, SEA and Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) can complement each other : Socio-Economic LCA are increasingly seen as a complete assessment tool for nanotechnologies, but the perspective between Social LCA and SEA are different and the respective merits and limitations of both approaches should be kept in mind. SEA is a "pragmatic regulatory impact analysis", that uses a cost/benefit framework analysis but remains open to other disciplines than economy, and open to the participation of stakeholders for the construction of scenarios of the deployment of technologies and the identification of alternatives. SEA is "pragmatic" in the sense that it is driven by the purpose to assess "what happens" with the introduction of nanotechnology, and uses methodologies such as Life Cycle Analysis only as far as they really contribute to that goal. We think that, being pragmatic, SEA is also adaptative, which is a key quality to handle the novelty of economic and social effects expected from nanotechnology.

Alternatives Analysis for the Resumption of Transient Testing Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee Nelson

2013-11-01

An alternatives analysis was performed for resumption of transient testing. The analysis considered eleven alternatives – including both US international facilities. A screening process was used to identify two viable alternatives from the original eleven. In addition, the alternatives analysis includes a no action alternative as required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The alternatives considered in this analysis included: 1. Restart the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) 2. Modify the Annular Core Research Reactor (ACRR) which includes construction of a new hot cell and installation of a new hodoscope. 3. No Action

The Development of an Open-Ended Drawing Tool: An Alternative Diagnostic Tool for Assessing Students' Understanding of the Particulate Nature of Matter

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nyachwaya, James M.; Mohamed, Abdi-Rizak; Roehrig, Gillian H.; Wood, Nathan B.; Kern, Anne L.; Schneider, Jamie L.

2011-01-01

Many studies in the chemical education literature report students' alternative conceptions in chemistry and the difficulty they present for future learning. In this paper, we review existing diagnostic tools used to uncover students' alternative conceptions in chemistry and suggest that there are two fundamental issues with such instruments,…

A Statistical Review of Alternative Zinc and Copper Extraction from Mineral Fertilizers and Industrial By-Products.

PubMed

Cenciani de Souza, Camila Prado; Aparecida de Abreu, Cleide; Coscione, Aline Renée; Alberto de Andrade, Cristiano; Teixeira, Luiz Antonio Junqueira; Consolini, Flavia

2018-01-01

Rapid, accurate, and low-cost alternative analytical methods for micronutrient quantification in fertilizers are fundamental in QC. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu) content in mineral fertilizers and industrial by-products determined by the alternative methods USEPA 3051a, 10% HCl, and 10% H2SO4 are statistically equivalent to the standard method, consisting of hot-plate digestion using concentrated HCl. The commercially marketed Zn and Cu sources in Brazil consisted of oxides, carbonate, and sulfate fertilizers and by-products consisting of galvanizing ash, galvanizing sludge, brass ash, and brass or scrap slag. The contents of sources ranged from 15 to 82% and 10 to 45%, respectively, for Zn and Cu. The Zn and Cu contents refer to the variation of the elements found in the different sources evaluated with the concentrated HCl method as shown in Table 1. A protocol based on the following criteria was used for the statistical analysis assessment of the methods: F-test modified by Graybill, t-test for the mean error, and linear correlation coefficient analysis. In terms of equivalents, 10% HCl extraction was equivalent to the standard method for Zn, and the results of the USEPA 3051a and 10% HCl methods indicated that these methods were equivalents for Cu. Therefore, these methods can be considered viable alternatives to the standard method of determination for Cu and Zn in mineral fertilizers and industrial by-products in future research for their complete validation.

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Efficient Driving Behaviors to Conserve Fuel

Science.gov Websites

Energy Futures Series: Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of the Built Environment on

32 CFR 989.8 - Analysis of alternatives.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Analysis of alternatives. 989.8 Section 989.8... ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS PROCESS (EIAP) § 989.8 Analysis of alternatives. (a) The Air Force must analyze reasonable alternatives to the proposed action and the “no action” alternative in all EAs and EISs, as fully...

Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2014-05-01

The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

The Future of Classification in Wheelchair Sports; Can Data Science and Technological Advancement Offer an Alternative Point of View?

PubMed

van der Slikke, Rienk M A; Bregman, Daan J J; Berger, Monique A M; de Witte, Annemarie M H; Veeger, Dirk-Jan H E J

2017-11-01

Classification is a defining factor for competition in wheelchair sports, but it is a delicate and time-consuming process with often questionable validity. 1 New inertial sensor based measurement methods applied in match play and field tests, allow for more precise and objective estimates of the impairment effect on wheelchair mobility performance. It was evaluated if these measures could offer an alternative point of view for classification. Six standard wheelchair mobility performance outcomes of different classification groups were measured in match play (n=29), as well as best possible performance in a field test (n=47). In match-results a clear relationship between classification and performance level is shown, with increased performance outcomes in each adjacent higher classification group. Three outcomes differed significantly between the low and mid-class groups, and one between the mid and high-class groups. In best performance (field test), a split between the low and mid-class groups shows (5 out of 6 outcomes differed significantly) but hardly any difference between the mid and high-class groups. This observed split was confirmed by cluster analysis, revealing the existence of only two performance based clusters. The use of inertial sensor technology to get objective measures of wheelchair mobility performance, combined with a standardized field-test, brought alternative views for evidence based classification. The results of this approach provided arguments for a reduced number of classes in wheelchair basketball. Future use of inertial sensors in match play and in field testing could enhance evaluation of classification guidelines as well as individual athlete performance.

The enduring effects of psychodynamic treatments vis-a-vis alternative treatments: A multilevel longitudinal meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivlighan, D. Martin, III

Although evidence suggests that the benefits of psychodynamic treatments are sustained over time, presently it is unclear whether these sustained benefits are superior to non-psychodynamic treatments. Additionally, the extant literature comparing the sustained benefits of psychodynamic treatments compared to alternative treatments is limited with methodological shortcomings. The purpose of the current study was to conduct a rigorous test of the growth of the benefits of psychodynamic treatments relative to alternative treatments across distinct domains of change (i.e., all outcome measures, targeted outcome measures, non-targeted outcome measures, and personality outcome measures). To do so, the study employed strict inclusion criteria to identify randomized clinical trials that directly compared at least one bona fide psychodynamic treatment and one bona fide non-psychodynamic treatment. Hierarchical linear modeling (Raudenbush, Bryk, Cheong & Congdon, du Toit, 2011) was used to longitudinally model the impact of psychodynamic treatments compared to non-psychodynamic treatments at post-treatment and to compare the growth (i.e., slope) of effects beyond treatment completion. Findings from the present meta-analysis indicated that psychodynamic treatments and non-psychodynamic treatments were equally efficacious at post-treatment and at follow-up for combined outcomes ( k = 20), targeted outcomes (k =19), non-targeted outcomes (k =17), and personality outcomes (k =6). Clinical implications, directions for future research, and limitations are discussed.

Cost-utility analysis comparing radioactive iodine, anti-thyroid drugs and total thyroidectomy for primary treatment of Graves' disease.

PubMed

Donovan, Peter J; McLeod, Donald S A; Little, Richard; Gordon, Louisa

2016-12-01

Little data is in existence about the most cost-effective primary treatment for Graves' disease. We performed a cost-utility analysis comparing radioactive iodine (RAI), anti-thyroid drugs (ATD) and total thyroidectomy (TT) as first-line therapy for Graves' disease in England and Australia. We used a Markov model to compare lifetime costs and benefits (quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)). The model included efficacy, rates of relapse and major complications associated with each treatment, and alternative second-line therapies. Model parameters were obtained from published literature. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted. Costs were presented in 2015£ or Australian Dollars (AUD). RAI was the least expensive therapy in both England (£5425; QALYs 34.73) and Australia (AUD5601; 30.97 QALYs). In base case results, in both countries, ATD was a cost-effective alternative to RAI (£16 866; 35.17 QALYs; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) £26 279 per QALY gained England; AUD8924; 31.37 QALYs; ICER AUD9687 per QALY gained Australia), while RAI dominated TT (£7115; QALYs 33.93 England; AUD15 668; 30.25 QALYs Australia). In sensitivity analysis, base case results were stable to changes in most cost, transition probabilities and health-relative quality-of-life (HRQoL) weights; however, in England, the results were sensitive to changes in the HRQoL weights of hypothyroidism and euthyroidism on ATD. In this analysis, RAI is the least expensive choice for first-line treatment strategy for Graves' disease. In England and Australia, ATD is likely to be a cost-effective alternative, while TT is unlikely to be cost-effective. Further research into HRQoL in Graves' disease could improve the quality of future studies. © 2016 European Society of Endocrinology.

Training Programs of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, 1971-1980.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Inst. of General Medical Sciences (NIH), Bethesda, MD.

The study predicts future requirements for biological scientists by specialty area, future supply within area, and the effects of National Institutes of Health program alternatives on requirements and supply measures. At present and for the forseeable future, approved training grants for critical shortage areas are funded as rapidly as centers of…

Learning Futures: Education, Technology and Social Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Facer, Keri

2011-01-01

In the twenty-first century educators around the world are being told that they need to transform education systems to adapt young people for the challenges of a global digital knowledge economy. Too rarely, however, do we ask whether this future vision is robust, achievable or even desirable, whether alternative futures might be in development,…

Alternative Scenarios of the American Future: 1980-2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glover, Robert

This report is a summary of the findings of the societal trends survey completed at the National Forum on Learning and The American Future, which focused on factors influencing the future of adult learning. The survey questionnaire and results consist of 120 societal trend statements organized into sixteen different content areas: demography;…

A Contingency in the Rosetta Reaction Control System: Alternative Cruise Trajectory Strategies to Cope with Degraded Delta-V Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauske, Rainer; Companys, Vincente

2007-01-01

Since August 2006 a pressure transducer of the Rosetta Reaction Control System (RCS) shows anomalous telemetries indicating a possible leak in a pressurant line. The future operation mode of the RCS may be affected by this problem, resulting in performance degradation. The current propellant budget and its future evolution are evaluated to show the possible states w.r.t. the required mission delta-V. Alternative cruise trajectory strategies are analyzed, providing delta-V savings, to compensate for the expected performance loss of the RCS.

Aptamer-Based Analysis: A Promising Alternative for Food Safety Control

PubMed Central

Amaya-González, Sonia; de-los-Santos-Álvarez, Noemí; Miranda-Ordieres, Arturo J.; Lobo-Castañón, Maria Jesús

2013-01-01

Ensuring food safety is nowadays a top priority of authorities and professional players in the food supply chain. One of the key challenges to determine the safety of food and guarantee a high level of consumer protection is the availability of fast, sensitive and reliable analytical methods to identify specific hazards associated to food before they become a health problem. The limitations of existing methods have encouraged the development of new technologies, among them biosensors. Success in biosensor design depends largely on the development of novel receptors with enhanced affinity to the target, while being stable and economical. Aptamers fulfill these characteristics, and thus have surfaced as promising alternatives to natural receptors. This Review describes analytical strategies developed so far using aptamers for the control of pathogens, allergens, adulterants, toxins and other forbidden contaminants to ensure food safety. The main progresses to date are presented, highlighting potential prospects for the future. PMID:24287543

Comparación de las predicciones de cosmologías alternativas al modelo estándar con datos del fondo cósmico de radiación

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccirilli, M. P.; Landau, S. J.; León, G.

2016-08-01

The cosmic microwave background radiation is one of the most powerful tools to study the early Universe and its evolution, providing also a method to test different cosmological scenarios. We consider alternative inflationary models where the emergence of the seeds of cosmic structure from a perfect isotropic and homogeneous universe can be explained by the self-induced collapse of the inflaton wave function. Some of these alternative models may result indistinguishable from the standard model, while others require to be compared with observational data through statistical analysis. In this article we show results concerning the first Planck release, the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, the South Pole Telescope, the WMAP and Sloan Digital Sky Survey datasets, reaching good agreement between data and theoretical predictions. For future works, we aim to achieve better limits in the cosmological parameters using the last Planck release.

Alternating Magnetic Field Forces for Satellite Formation Flying

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Youngquist, Robert C.; Nurge, Mark A.; Starr, Stnaley O.

2012-01-01

Selected future space missions, such as large aperture telescopes and multi-component interferometers, will require the precise positioning of a number of isolated satellites, yet many of the suggested approaches for providing satellites positioning forces have serious limitations. In this paper we propose a new approach, capable of providing both position and orientation forces, that resolves or alleviates many of these problems. We show that by using alternating fields and currents that finely-controlled forces can be induced on the satellites, which can be individually selected through frequency allocation. We also show, through analysis and experiment, that near field operation is feasible and can provide sufficient force and the necessary degrees of freedom to accurately position and orient small satellites relative to one another. In particular, the case of a telescope with a large number of free mirrors is developed to provide an example of the concept. We. also discuss the far field extension of this concept.

Translating Vision into Design: A Method for Conceptual Design Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, Joyce E.

2003-01-01

One of the most challenging tasks for engineers is the definition of design solutions that will satisfy high-level strategic visions and objectives. Even more challenging is the need to demonstrate how a particular design solution supports the high-level vision. This paper describes a process and set of system engineering tools that have been used at the Johnson Space Center to analyze and decompose high-level objectives for future human missions into design requirements that can be used to develop alternative concepts for vehicles, habitats, and other systems. Analysis and design studies of alternative concepts and approaches are used to develop recommendations for strategic investments in research and technology that support the NASA Integrated Space Plan. In addition to a description of system engineering tools, this paper includes a discussion of collaborative design practices for human exploration mission architecture studies used at the Johnson Space Center.

Overview of waste heat utilization systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, M. M.

1984-01-01

The heavy truck diesel engine rejects a significant fraction of its fuel energy in the form of waste heat. Historically, the Department of Energy has supported technology efforts for utilization of the diesel exhaust heat. Specifically, the Turbocompound and the Organic Rankine Cycle System (ORCS) have demonstrated that meaningful improvements in highway fuel economy can be realized through waste heat utilization. For heat recovery from the high temperature exhaust of future adiabatic diesel engines, the DOE/NASA are investigating a variety of alternatives based on the Rankine, Brayton, and Stirling power cycles. Initial screening results indicate that systems of this type offer a fuel savings advantage over the turbocompound system. Capital and maintenance cost projections, however, indicate that the alternative power cycles are not competitive on an economic payback basis. Plans call for continued analysis in an attempt to identify a cost effective configuration with adequate fuel savings potential.

Clinical practice guidelines in complementary and alternative medicine. An analysis of opportunities and obstacles. Practice and Policy Guidelines Panel, National Institutes of Health Office of Alternative Medicine.

PubMed

1997-01-01

An estimated 1 of 3 Americans uses some form of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM), such as acupuncture, homeopathy, or herbal medicine. In 1995, the National Institutes of Health Office of Alternative Medicine convened an expert panel to examine the role of clinical practice guidelines in CAM. The panel concluded that CAM practices currently are unsuitable for the development of evidence-based practice guidelines, in part because of the lack of relevant outcomes data from well-designed clinical trials. Moreover, the notions of standardization and appropriateness, inherent in guideline development, face challenging methodologic problems when applied to CAM, which considers many different treatment practices appropriate and encourages highly individualized care. Due to different belief systems and divergent theories about the nature of health and illness, CAM disciplines have fundamental differences in how they define target conditions, causes of disease, interventions, and outcome measures of effectiveness. These differences are even more striking when compared with those used by Western medicine. The panel made a series of recommendations on strategies to strengthen the evidence base for future guideline development in CAM and to meet better the current information needs of clinicians, patients, and guideline developers who seek information about CAM treatments.

Pricing the Future in the Seventeenth Century: Calculating Technologies in Competition.

PubMed

Deringer, William

Time is money. But how much? What is money in the future worth to you today? This question of "present value" arises in myriad economic activities, from valuing financial securities to real estate transactions to governmental cost-benefit analysis-even the economics of climate change. In modern capitalist practice, one calculation offers the only "rational" way to answer: compound-interest discounting. In the early modern period, though, economic actors used at least two alternative calculating technologies for thinking about present value, including a vernacular technique called years purchase and discounting by simple interest. All of these calculations had different strengths and affordances, and none was unquestionably better or more "rational" than the others at the time. The history of technology offers distinct resources for understanding such technological competitions, and thus for understanding the emergence of modern economic temporality.

Community-based assessment and planning of energy futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnes, S. A.

1981-04-01

The decentralized solar energy technology assessment program is discussed. Four communities were involved in an assessment of the compatibility of diverse conservation and renewable energy supply technologies and community values and goals and in community planning for the implementation of compatible energy demand and supply alternatives. The community approach has several basic components: (1) recruiting and organizing for the assessment planning process; (2) collection and analysis of data related to community energy use and indigenous renewable energy resources; (3) creation and maintenance of a community education and information program; (4) development of policies favorable to the development of preferred community futures; and (5) development of implementation or action strategies. The role of public participation, group decision making techniques, the role of technical information in citizen and group decision making, and linkage between assessment planning and the relevant policy process are emphasized.

PLANT DIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat change statistics and species-area curves were used to estimate the effects of alternative future scenarios for agriculture on plant diversity in Iowa farmlands. Study areas were two watersheds in central Iowa of about 50 and 90 square kilometers, respectively. Future s...

WILDLIFE HABITAT

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat change statistics were used to estimate the effects of alternative future scenarios for agriculture on non-fish vertebrate diversity in Iowa farmlands. Study areas were two watersheds in central Iowa of about 50 and 90 square kilometers, respectively. Future scenarios w...

Vortex Analysis of Intra-Aneurismal Flow in Cerebral Aneurysms

PubMed Central

Sunderland, Kevin; Haferman, Christopher; Chintalapani, Gouthami

2016-01-01

This study aims to develop an alternative vortex analysis method by measuring structure ofIntracranial aneurysm (IA) flow vortexes across the cardiac cycle, to quantify temporal stability of aneurismal flow. Hemodynamics were modeled in “patient-specific” geometries, using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Modified versions of known λ 2 and Q-criterion methods identified vortex regions; then regions were segmented out using the classical marching cube algorithm. Temporal stability was measured by the degree of vortex overlap (DVO) at each step of a cardiac cycle against a cycle-averaged vortex and by the change in number of cores over the cycle. No statistical differences exist in DVO or number of vortex cores between 5 terminal IAs and 5 sidewall IAs. No strong correlation exists between vortex core characteristics and geometric or hemodynamic characteristics of IAs. Statistical independence suggests this proposed method may provide novel IA information. However, threshold values used to determine the vortex core regions and resolution of velocity data influenced analysis outcomes and have to be addressed in future studies. In conclusions, preliminary results show that the proposed methodology may help give novel insight toward aneurismal flow characteristic and help in future risk assessment given more developments. PMID:27891172

Vortex Analysis of Intra-Aneurismal Flow in Cerebral Aneurysms.

PubMed

Sunderland, Kevin; Haferman, Christopher; Chintalapani, Gouthami; Jiang, Jingfeng

2016-01-01

This study aims to develop an alternative vortex analysis method by measuring structure ofIntracranial aneurysm (IA) flow vortexes across the cardiac cycle, to quantify temporal stability of aneurismal flow. Hemodynamics were modeled in "patient-specific" geometries, using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Modified versions of known λ 2 and Q -criterion methods identified vortex regions; then regions were segmented out using the classical marching cube algorithm. Temporal stability was measured by the degree of vortex overlap (DVO) at each step of a cardiac cycle against a cycle-averaged vortex and by the change in number of cores over the cycle. No statistical differences exist in DVO or number of vortex cores between 5 terminal IAs and 5 sidewall IAs. No strong correlation exists between vortex core characteristics and geometric or hemodynamic characteristics of IAs. Statistical independence suggests this proposed method may provide novel IA information. However, threshold values used to determine the vortex core regions and resolution of velocity data influenced analysis outcomes and have to be addressed in future studies. In conclusions, preliminary results show that the proposed methodology may help give novel insight toward aneurismal flow characteristic and help in future risk assessment given more developments.

Contribution of the Multi-attribute Value Theory to conflict resolution in groundwater management. Application to the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apperl, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Andreu, J.; Llopis-Albert, C.

2012-04-01

The implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive, with consideration of environmental, economic and social objectives, claims for participatory water resource management methods. To deal with different conflicting objectives it is necessary to apply a method for clarifying stakeholders' positions (identifying values and opinions of stakeholders, and quantifying their valuations), improving transparency with respect to outcomes of alternatives, and moving the discussion from alternatives towards fundamental objectives (value-thinking approach) and valuing trade-offs, facilitating negotiation. The method allows the incorporation of stakeholders in the planning process, which should guarantee a higher acceptance of the policies to be implemented. This research has been conducted in the Mancha Oriental groundwater system Spain, subject to an intensive use of groundwater for irrigation. The main goals according to the WFD are: a good qualitative and quantitative status of the aquifer and a good quantitative and ecological status of related surface water resources (mainly the Jucar river and dependent ecosystems). The aim is to analyze the contribution of the MAVT for conflict resolution and a sustainable groundwater management, involving the stakeholders in the valuation process. A complex set of objectives and attributes has been defined. The alternatives have been evaluated according to the compliance of ecological, economic and social interests. Results show that the acceptation of alternatives depends strongly on the combination of measures and the implementation status. A high conflict potential is expected from alternatives consisting of one unique measure. Uncertainties of the results are notable, but do not influence heavily on the alternative ranking. Different future scenarios also influence on the preference of alternatives. For instance, an expected reduction of future groundwater resources by climate change increases the conflict potential, with two observed reactions: acceptance of more rigorous measures, on one hand, and a tendency to soft measures with the same cost, as a reaction to the decreased effectiveness of the alternatives. The implementation of the method to a very complex case study, with many conflicting objectives and alternatives and uncertain outcomes, including future scenarios (climate change) illustrate the potential of the method for supporting management decisions.

National Park Service's Alternative Transportation Program : Pilot Data Collection Summary and Future Recommendations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-03-31

In the summer of 2002 an interagency, multi-disciplinary team was formed to develop a plan for defining and collecting performance data needed for better managing the National Park Services (NPS) Alternative Transportation Program (ATP). Members o...

18 CFR 806.23 - Standards for water withdrawals.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... of groundwater or stream flow levels; rendering competing supplies unreliable; affecting other water..., at its own expense, an alternate water supply or other mitigating measures. (iii) Require the project... deficiencies, identify alternative water supply options, and support existing and proposed future withdrawals. ...

Will the "Fixes" Fall Flat? Prospects for Quality Measures and Payment Incentives to Control Healthcare Spending.

PubMed

Hauswald, Erik; Sklar, David

2017-04-01

Payment systems in the US healthcare system have rewarded physicians for services and attempted to control healthcare spending, with rewards and penalties based upon projected goals for future spending. The incorporation of quality goals and alternatives to fee-for-service was introduced to replace the previous system of rewards and penalties. We describe the history of the US healthcare payment system, focusing on Medicare and the efforts to control spending through the Sustainable Growth Rate. We describe the latest evolution of the payment system, which emphasizes quality measurement and alternative payment models. We conclude with suggestions for how to influence physician behavior through education and payment reform so that their behavior aligns with alternative care models to control spending in the future.

How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spackova, Olga; Dittes, Beatrice; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

The effect of extreme events such as floods on the infrastructure and built environment is associated with significant uncertainties: These include the uncertain effect of climate change, uncertainty on extreme event frequency estimation due to limited historic data and imperfect models, and, not least, uncertainty on future socio-economic developments, which determine the damage potential. One option for dealing with these uncertainties is the use of adaptable (flexible) infrastructure that can easily be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The challenge is in quantifying the value of adaptability and in finding the optimal sequence of decision. Is it worth to build a (potentially more expensive) adaptable system that can be adjusted in the future depending on the future conditions? Or is it more cost-effective to make a conservative design without counting with the possible future changes to the system? What is the optimal timing of the decision to build/adjust the system? We develop a quantitative decision-support framework for evaluation of alternative infrastructure designs under uncertainties, which: • probabilistically models the uncertain future (trough a Bayesian approach) • includes the adaptability of the systems (the costs of future changes) • takes into account the fact that future decisions will be made under uncertainty as well (using pre-posterior decision analysis) • allows to identify the optimal capacity and optimal timing to build/adjust the infrastructure. Application of the decision framework will be demonstrated on an example of flood mitigation planning in Bavaria.

Defining alternative rules in water and sanitation.

PubMed

Robert, J

1995-11-01

While the conventional water and sanitation package remains most prominent, alternatives exist to conventional waterworks and sanitation practices. Some alternate courses of action are considered. Promising an unprecedented availability of piped water, water development projects foster a pump-and-dump mentality even before they are completed. Often simply announcing the impending implementation of such projects encourages the intention among future beneficiaries to waste water resources. Alternatives to the domestic waste of water must be sought and implemented. Disestablishing water development, styles of alternative water technologies, decision-making and decision-makers, water policy scale, regenerating community access to sources, and water pricing are discussed.

Injection Locking Techniques for Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gathma, Timothy D.; Buckwalter, James F.

2011-04-01

Wideband spectrum analysis supports future communication systems that reconfigure and adapt to the capacity of the spectral environment. While test equipment manufacturers offer wideband spectrum analyzers with excellent sensitivity and resolution, these spectrum analyzers typically cannot offer acceptable size, weight, and power (SWAP). CMOS integrated circuits offer the potential to fully integrate spectrum analysis capability with analog front-end circuitry and digital signal processing on a single chip. Unfortunately, CMOS lacks high-Q passives and wideband resonator tunability that is necessary for heterodyne implementations of spectrum analyzers. As an alternative to the heterodyne receiver architectures, two nonlinear methods for performing wideband, low-power spectrum analysis are presented. The first method involves injecting the spectrum of interest into an array of injection-locked oscillators. The second method employs the closed loop dynamics of both injection locking and phase locking to independently estimate the injected frequency and power.

Sustainability and Alternative Futures

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 is “. . .to create and maintain conditions, under which humans and nature can exist in productive harmony, that permit fulfilling the social, economic, and other requirements of present and future generations.”...

Is case-based learning an effective teaching strategy to challenge students' alternative conceptions regarding chemical kinetics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalçınkaya, Eylem; Taştan-Kırık, Özgecan; Boz, Yezdan; Yıldıran, Demet

2012-07-01

Background: Case-based learning (CBL) is simply teaching the concept to the students based on the cases. CBL involves a case, which is a scenario based on daily life, and study questions related to the case, which allows students to discuss their ideas. Chemical kinetics is one of the most difficult concepts for students in chemistry. Students have generally low levels of conceptual understanding and many alternative conceptions regarding it. Purpose: This study aimed to explore the effect of CBL on dealing with students' alternative conceptions about chemical kinetics. Sample: The sample consists of 53 high school students from one public high school in Turkey. Design and methods : Nonequivalent pre-test and post-test control group design was used. Reaction Rate Concept Test and semi-structured interviews were used for data collection. Convenience sampling technique was followed. For data analysis, the independent samples t-test and ANOVA was performed. Results : Both concept test and interview results showed that students instructed with cases had better understanding of core concepts of chemical kinetics and had less alternative conceptions related to the subject matter compared to the control group students, despite the fact that it was impossible to challenge all the alternative conceptions in the experimental group. Conclusions: CBL is an effective teaching method for challenging students' alternative conceptions in the context of chemical kinetics. Since using cases in small groups and whole class discussions has been found to be an effective way to cope with the alternative conceptions, it can be applied to other subjects and grade levels in high schools with a higher sample size. Furthermore, the effect of this method on academic achievement, motivation and critical thinking skills are other variables that can be investigated for future studies in the subject area of chemistry.

76 FR 60587 - Environmental Impact Statement; North Corridor Transit Project, Seattle (WA) Metropolitan Area...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-29

... alternatives identified through an Alternatives Analysis study completed by the project. Early scoping for the alternatives analysis phase was previously announced in the Federal Register on September 27, 2010. Results of the alternatives analysis are described below. DATES: Written comments on the scope of alternatives...

Emerging trends in alternative aviation fuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, Cody

The days of petroleum-based aviation fuels are numbered. New regulations to be set in place in the coming years will force current fuels to be phased out in favor of cleaner fuels with less toxic emissions. The alternative fuel industry has already taken its foothold in other modes of transportation, and aviation will soon follow suit. Many companies have cropped up over the last decade, and a few have been around longer, that work hard to develop the alternative aviation fuels of the future. It is important, however, for the aviation community to know what to expect and when to expect it concerning alternative fuels. This study investigates where various companies in the alternative aviation fuel industry currently stand in their development and production processes, and how their products will affect aircraft owners and operators. By interviewing representatives from these companies and analyzing their responses to identify trends, an educated prediction can be made about where the industry is headed and when the aviation community can expect these fuel to be available. The findings of this study indicate that many companies are still in their developmental stages, with a few notable outliers, and that most of these companies expect to see production of their product by 2017. Also, the fuel manufacturers are dealing with all the legal hurdles regarding alternative fuels, so little to no effort will be required on the part of the consumer. These findings, along with their analysis, will enable the aviation community to make educated decisions concerning fuel and their aircraft, as well and do their part to help these beneficial fuels get to market.

Proceedings of a Conference--"The Future of Grammar in American Schools" (Winchester, VA, August 10-11, 1990).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Council of Teachers of English, Urbana, IL. Assembly for the Teaching of English Grammar.

Providing alternatives to the way grammar is taught, this proceedings includes every paper (or summary) except one delivered at a conference on the future of grammar in American schools. Papers in the proceedings are: "Keynote: The Future of Grammar in American Schools" (Martha Kolln); "Approaches to Grammar: Teaching &…

Future trends in society and technology: implications for wilderness research and management

Treesearch

George H. Stankey

2000-01-01

Judging the impact of social and technological trends on the future of wilderness is complex. Declining public trust, growing demands for scrutiny, a need to recognize the link between biophysical and socioeconomic systems, and the need for criteria to select among alternative futures challenge us. A burgeoning global population will increase resource impacts, but more...

SOFRA and RPA: two views of the future of southern timber supply.

Treesearch

Darius Adams; John Mills; Ralph Alig; Richard Haynes

2005-01-01

Two recent studies provide alternative views of the current state and future prospects of southern forests and timber supply: the Southern Forest Resource Assessment (SOFRA) and the Fifth Resources Planning Act Timber Assessment (RPA). Using apparently comparable data but different models and methods, the studies portray futures that in some aspects are quite similar...

PERTS: A Prototyping Environment for Real-Time Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Jane W. S.; Lin, Kwei-Jay; Liu, C. L.

1991-01-01

We discuss an ongoing project to build a Prototyping Environment for Real-Time Systems, called PERTS. PERTS is a unique prototyping environment in that it has (1) tools and performance models for the analysis and evaluation of real-time prototype systems, (2) building blocks for flexible real-time programs and the support system software, (3) basic building blocks of distributed and intelligent real time applications, and (4) an execution environment. PERTS will make the recent and future theoretical advances in real-time system design and engineering readily usable to practitioners. In particular, it will provide an environment for the use and evaluation of new design approaches, for experimentation with alternative system building blocks and for the analysis and performance profiling of prototype real-time systems.

Autonomous stress imaging cores: from concept to reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velden, Stephen; Rajic, Nik; Brooks, Chris; Galea, Steve

2016-04-01

The historical reliance of thermoelastic stress analysis on cooled infrared detection has created significant cost and practical impediments to the widespread use of this powerful full-field stress measurement technique. The emergence of low-cost microbolometers as a practical alternative has allowed for an expansion of the traditional role of thermoelastic stress analysis, and raises the possibility that it may in future become a viable structural health monitoring modality. Experimental results are shown to confirm that high resolution stress imagery can be obtained from an uncooled thermal camera core significantly smaller than any infrared imaging device previously applied to TSA. The paper provides a summary of progress toward the development of an autonomous stress-imaging capability based on this core.

KSC-2009-4330

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-07-30

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Members of the Augustine Commission are meeting in Cocoa Beach, Fla. At left is Chairman Norman R. Augustine, retired chairman and CEO of Lockheed Martin Corp., and, at right, is Phil McAlister, special assistant for Program Analysis in NASA's Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation. At the request of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, NASA established the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee, known as the Augustine Commission. The committee is conducting an independent review of ongoing U.S. human spaceflight plans and programs, as well as alternatives, to ensure the nation is pursuing the best trajectory for the future of human space flight - one that is safe, innovative, affordable, and sustainable. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Shortage of cardiothoracic surgeons is likely by 2020.

PubMed

Grover, Atul; Gorman, Karyn; Dall, Timothy M; Jonas, Richard; Lytle, Bruce; Shemin, Richard; Wood, Douglas; Kron, Irving

2009-08-11

Even as the burden of cardiovascular disease in the United States is increasing as the population grows and ages, the number of active cardiothoracic surgeons has fallen for the first time in 20 years. Meanwhile, the treatment of patients with coronary artery disease continues to evolve amid uncertain changes in technology. This study evaluates current and future requirements for cardiothoracic surgeons in light of decreasing rates of coronary artery bypass grafting procedures. Projections of supply and demand for cardiothoracic surgeons are based on analysis of population, physician office, hospital, and physician data sets to estimate current patterns of healthcare use and delivery. Using a simulation model, we project the future supply of cardiothoracic surgeons under alternative assumptions about the number of new fellows trained each year. Future demand is modeled, taking into account patient demographics, under current and alternative use rates that include the elimination of open revascularization. By 2025, the demand for cardiothoracic surgeons could increase by 46% on the basis of population growth and aging if current healthcare use and service delivery patterns continue. Even with complete elimination of coronary artery bypass grafting, there is a projected shortfall of cardiothoracic surgeons because the active supply is projected to decrease 21% over the same time period as a result of retirement and declining entrants. The United States is facing a shortage of cardiothoracic surgeons within the next 10 years, which could diminish quality of care if non-board-certified physicians expand their role in cardiothoracic surgery or if patients must delay appropriate care because of a shortage of well-trained surgeons.

Contribution of the Multi Attribute Value Theory to conflict resolution in groundwater management. Application to the Mancha Oriental groundwater system, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apperl, B.; Andreu, J.; Karjalainen, T. P.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.

2014-09-01

The implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive demands participatory water resource management approaches. Decision making in groundwater quantity and quality management is complex because of the existence of many independent actors, heterogeneous stakeholder interests, multiple objectives, different potential policies, and uncertain outcomes. Conflicting stakeholder interests have been often identified as an impediment to the realization and success of water regulations and policies. The management of complex groundwater systems requires clarifying stakeholders' positions (identifying stakeholders preferences and values), improving transparency with respect to outcomes of alternatives, and moving the discussion from the selection of alternatives towards definition of fundamental objectives (value-thinking approach), what facilitates negotiation. The aims of the study are to analyse the potential of the multi attribute value theory for conflict resolution in groundwater management and to evaluate the benefit of stakeholder incorporation in the different stages of the planning process to find an overall satisfying solution for groundwater management. The research was conducted in the Mancha Oriental groundwater system (Spain), subject to an intensive use of groundwater for irrigation. A complex set of objectives and attributes were defined, and the management alternatives were created by a combination of different fundamental actions, considering different implementation stages and future changes in water resources availability. Interviews were conducted with representative stakeholder groups using an interactive platform, showing simultaneously the consequences of changes of preferences to the alternative ranking. Results show that the acceptation of alternatives depends strongly on the combination of measures and the implementation stages. Uncertainties of the results were notable but did not influence heavily on the alternative ranking. The expected reduction of future groundwater resources by climate change increases the conflict potential. The implementation of the method to a very complex case study, with many conflicting objectives and alternatives and uncertain outcomes, including future scenarios under water limiting conditions, illustrate the potential of the method for supporting management decisions.

Contribution of the multi-attribute value theory to conflict resolution in groundwater management - application to the Mancha Oriental groundwater system, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apperl, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Andreu, J.; Karjalainen, T. P.

2015-03-01

The implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive demands participatory water resource management approaches. Decision making in groundwater quantity and quality management is complex because of the existence of many independent actors, heterogeneous stakeholder interests, multiple objectives, different potential policies, and uncertain outcomes. Conflicting stakeholder interests have often been identified as an impediment to the realisation and success of water regulations and policies. The management of complex groundwater systems requires the clarification of stakeholders' positions (identifying stakeholder preferences and values), improving transparency with respect to outcomes of alternatives, and moving the discussion from the selection of alternatives towards the definition of fundamental objectives (value-thinking approach), which facilitates negotiation. The aims of the study are to analyse the potential of the multi-attribute value theory for conflict resolution in groundwater management and to evaluate the benefit of stakeholder incorporation into the different stages of the planning process, to find an overall satisfying solution for groundwater management. The research was conducted in the Mancha Oriental groundwater system (Spain), subject to intensive use of groundwater for irrigation. A complex set of objectives and attributes was defined, and the management alternatives were created by a combination of different fundamental actions, considering different implementation stages and future changes in water resource availability. Interviews were conducted with representative stakeholder groups using an interactive platform, showing simultaneously the consequences of changes in preferences to the alternative ranking. Results show that the approval of alternatives depends strongly on the combination of measures and the implementation stages. Uncertainties in the results were notable, but did not influence the alternative ranking heavily. The expected reduction in future groundwater resources by climate change increases the conflict potential. The implementation of the method in a very complex case study, with many conflicting objectives and alternatives and uncertain outcomes, including future scenarios under water limiting conditions, illustrates the potential of the method for supporting management decisions.

Restoration of contaminated ecosystems: adaptive management in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farag, Aida; Larson, Diane L.; Stauber, Jenny; Stahl, Ralph; Isanhart, John; McAbee, Kevin T.; Walsh, Christopher J.

2017-01-01

Three case studies illustrate how adaptive management (AM) has been used in ecological restorations that involve contaminants. Contaminants addressed include mercury, selenium, and contaminants and physical disturbances delivered to streams by urban stormwater runoff. All three cases emphasize the importance of broad stakeholder input early and consistently throughout decision analysis for AM. Risk of contaminant exposure provided input to the decision analyses (e.g. selenium exposure to endangered razorback suckers, Stewart Lake; multiple contaminants in urban stormwater runoff, Melbourne) and was balanced with the protection of resources critical for a desired future state (e.g. preservation old growth trees, South River). Monitoring also played a critical role in the ability to conduct the decision analyses necessary for AM plans. For example, newer technologies in the Melbourne case provided a testable situation where contaminant concentrations and flow disturbance were reduced to support a return to good ecological condition. In at least one case (Stewart Lake), long-term monitoring data are being used to document the potential effects of climate change on a restoration trajectory. Decision analysis formalized the process by which stakeholders arrived at the priorities for the sites, which together constituted the desired future condition towards which each restoration is aimed. Alternative models were developed that described in mechanistic terms how restoration can influence the system towards the desired future condition. Including known and anticipated effects of future climate scenarios in these models will make them robust to the long-term exposure and effects of contaminants in restored ecosystems.

The Future Impact of Wind on BPA Power System Load Following and Regulation Requirements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; McManus, Bart

Wind power is growing in a very fast pace as an alternative generating resource. As the ratio of wind power over total system capacity increases, the impact of wind on various system aspects becomes significant. This paper presents a methodology to study the future impact of wind on BPA power system load following and regulation requirements. Existing methodologies for similar analysis include dispatch model simulation and standard deviation evaluation on load and wind data. The methodology proposed in this paper uses historical data and stochastic processes to simulate the load balancing processes in the BPA power system. It mimics themore » actual power system operations therefore the results are close to reality yet the study based on this methodology is convenient to perform. The capacity, ramp rate and ramp duration characteristics are extracted from the simulation results. System load following and regulation capacity requirements are calculated accordingly. The ramp rate and ramp duration data obtained from the analysis can be used to evaluate generator response or maneuverability requirement and regulating units’ energy requirement, respectively.« less

Additional EIPC Study Analysis: Interim Report on Medium Priority Topics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadley, Stanton W.; Gotham, Douglas J.

Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a stakeholder steering committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States’ Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. The first was a 2015–2040 analysis that looked at a broad array of possible future scenarios, while the second focused on a more detailed examination of the grid in 2030. The studies provided a wealth of information on possible future generation, demand, and transmission alternatives. However, at the conclusionmore » there were still unresolved questions and issues. The US Department of Energy, which had sponsored the study, asked Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers and others who worked on the project to conduct an additional study of the data to provide further insights for stakeholders and the industry. This report documents the second part of that follow-on study [an earlier report (Hadley 2013) covered the first part, and a subsequent report will address the last part].« less

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-02-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; Bosetti, V.; Borgonovo, E.; Capros, P.; Fricko, O.; Gernaat, D. E. H. J.; Guivarch, C.; Havlik, P.; Huppmann, D.; Johnson, N.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Keppo, I.; Krey, V.; Ó Broin, E.; Price, J.; van Vuuren, D. P.

2017-01-01

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.

Translational bioinformatics in the cloud: an affordable alternative

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

With the continued exponential expansion of publicly available genomic data and access to low-cost, high-throughput molecular technologies for profiling patient populations, computational technologies and informatics are becoming vital considerations in genomic medicine. Although cloud computing technology is being heralded as a key enabling technology for the future of genomic research, available case studies are limited to applications in the domain of high-throughput sequence data analysis. The goal of this study was to evaluate the computational and economic characteristics of cloud computing in performing a large-scale data integration and analysis representative of research problems in genomic medicine. We find that the cloud-based analysis compares favorably in both performance and cost in comparison to a local computational cluster, suggesting that cloud computing technologies might be a viable resource for facilitating large-scale translational research in genomic medicine. PMID:20691073

SWOT analysis of the renewable energy sources in Romania - case study: solar energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupu, A. G.; Dumencu, A.; Atanasiu, M. V.; Panaite, C. E.; Dumitrașcu, Gh; Popescu, A.

2016-08-01

The evolution of energy sector worldwide triggered intense preoccupation on both finding alternative renewable energy sources and environmental issues. Romania is considered to have technological potential and geographical location suitable to renewable energy usage for electricity generation. But this high potential is not fully exploited in the context of policies and regulations adopted globally, and more specific, European Union (EU) environmental and energy strategies and legislation related to renewable energy sources. This SWOT analysis of solar energy source presents the state of the art, potential and future prospects for development of renewable energy in Romania. The analysis concluded that the development of solar energy sector in Romania depends largely on: viability of legislative framework on renewable energy sources, increased subsidies for solar R&D, simplified methodology of green certificates, and educating the public, investors, developers and decision-makers.

The stability and validity of automated vocal analysis in preverbal preschoolers with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Woynaroski, Tiffany; Oller, D Kimbrough; Keceli-Kaysili, Bahar; Xu, Dongxin; Richards, Jeffrey A; Gilkerson, Jill; Gray, Sharmistha; Yoder, Paul

2017-03-01

Theory and research suggest that vocal development predicts "useful speech" in preschoolers with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but conventional methods for measurement of vocal development are costly and time consuming. This longitudinal correlational study examines the reliability and validity of several automated indices of vocalization development relative to an index derived from human coded, conventional communication samples in a sample of preverbal preschoolers with ASD. Automated indices of vocal development were derived using software that is presently "in development" and/or only available for research purposes and using commercially available Language ENvironment Analysis (LENA) software. Indices of vocal development that could be derived using the software available for research purposes: (a) were highly stable with a single day-long audio recording, (b) predicted future spoken vocabulary to a degree that was nonsignificantly different from the index derived from conventional communication samples, and (c) continued to predict future spoken vocabulary even after controlling for concurrent vocabulary in our sample. The score derived from standard LENA software was similarly stable, but was not significantly correlated with future spoken vocabulary. Findings suggest that automated vocal analysis is a valid and reliable alternative to time intensive and expensive conventional communication samples for measurement of vocal development of preverbal preschoolers with ASD in research and clinical practice. Autism Res 2017, 10: 508-519. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Driver Gaze Behavior Is Different in Normal Curve Driving and when Looking at the Tangent Point

PubMed Central

Itkonen, Teemu; Pekkanen, Jami; Lappi, Otto

2015-01-01

Several steering models in the visual science literature attempt to capture the visual strategies in curve driving. Some of them are based on steering points on the future path (FP), others on tangent points (TP). It is, however, challenging to differentiate between the models’ predictions in real–world contexts. Analysis of optokinetic nystagmus (OKN) parameters is one useful measure, as the different strategies predict measurably different OKN patterns. Here, we directly test this prediction by asking drivers to either a) “drive as they normally would” or b) to “look at the TP”. The design of the experiment is similar to a previous study by Kandil et al., but uses more sophisticated methods of eye–movement analysis. We find that the eye-movement patterns in the “normal” condition are indeed markedly different from the “tp” condition, and consistent with drivers looking at waypoints on the future path. This is the case for both overall fixation distribution, as well as the more informative fixation–by–fixation analysis of OKN. We find that the horizontal gaze speed during OKN corresponds well to the quantitative prediction of the future path models. The results also definitively rule out the alternative explanation that the OKN is produced by an involuntary reflex even while the driver is “trying” to look at the TP. The results are discussed in terms of the sequential organization of curve driving. PMID:26287914

Urban airshed modeling of air quality impacts of alternative transportation fuel use in Los Angeles and Atlanta

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

This report documents a photochemical modeling study of the potential impacts on air quality of future emissions from alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). The main objective of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in supporting this study is ...

Ballistic missile defense technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1985-09-01

A report on Ballistic Missile Technologies includes the following: Executive summary; Introduction; Ballistic missiles then and now; Deterrence, U.S. nuclear strategy, and BMD; BMD capabilities and the strategic balance; Crisis stability, arms race stability, and arms control issues; Ballistic missile defense technologies; Feasibility; Alternative future scenarios; Alternative R&D programs.

ASSESSING EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES ON WILDLIFE HABITAT IN IOWA, USA

EPA Science Inventory

A habitat-change model was used to compare past, present, and future land cover and management practices to assess potential impacts of alternative agricultural practices on wildlife in two agricultural watersheds, Walnut Creek and Buck Creek, in central Iowa, USA. This approach ...

Rocket Scientist for a Day: Investigating Alternatives for Chemical Propulsion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Angelin, Marcus; Rahm, Martin; Gabrielsson, Erik; Gumaelius, Lena

2012-01-01

This laboratory experiment introduces rocket science from a chemistry perspective. The focus is set on chemical propulsion, including its environmental impact and future development. By combining lecture-based teaching with practical, theoretical, and computational exercises, the students get to evaluate different propellant alternatives. To…

Present and Probable CATV/Broadband-Communication Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ward, John E.

The study reports on technical and cost factors affecting future growth of Cable TV (CATV) systems and the development of the "wired nation." Comparisons are made between alternatives for distributing CATV signals and alternative prototypes for subscriber home terminals. Multi-cable, augmented-channel (with converter), and switched CATV…

Indentation-Induced Shear Band Formation in Thin-Film Multilayers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigelow, Shannon; Shen, Yu-Lin

2017-08-01

We report an exploratory investigation into the cause of shear band formation in multilayer thin-films subject to nanoindentation. The material system considered here is composed of alternating aluminum (Al) and silicon carbide (SiC) nanolayers, atop a silicon (Si) substrate. Finite element models are developed in an attempt to reproduce the shear banding phenomenon observed experimentally. By introducing strain softening into the material model for the hard SiC layers, shear bands can be seen to emerge from the indentation site in the finite element analysis. Broad implications, along with possible directions for future work, are discussed.

An emerging action science of social settings.

PubMed

Seidman, Edward

2012-09-01

Seymour B. Sarason's innovative ideas have influenced much of my work. These same ideas-in particular, his concepts of social settings, behavioral and programmatic regularities, and the universe of alternatives-also serve as the foundation for an action science of social settings. Questions regarding theory, measurement, intervention, and research design and data analysis are central to the development of this action science, and there have been recent innovations in each of these areas. However, future challenges remain for the field. We must continue to move forward to advance an action science of social settings and make a real difference in people's lives.

VCSEL-based fiber optic link for avionics: implementation and performance analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jieqin; Zhang, Chunxi; Duan, Jingyuan; Wen, Huaitao

2006-11-01

A Gb/s fiber optic link with built-in test capability (BIT) basing on vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) sources for military avionics bus for next generation has been presented in this paper. To accurately predict link performance, statistical methods and Bit Error Rate (BER) measurements have been examined. The results show that the 1Gb/s fiber optic link meets the BER requirement and values for link margin can reach up to 13dB. Analysis shows that the suggested photonic network may provide high performance and low cost interconnections alternative for future military avionics.

Analysis of fuel system technology for broad property fuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffinberry, G. A.

1984-01-01

An analytical study was performed in order to assess relative performance and economic factors involved with alternative advanced fuel systems for future commercial aircraft operating with broad property fuels. Significant results, with emphasis on design practicality from the engine manufacturer' standpoint, are highlighted. Several advanced fuel systems were modeled to determine as accurately as possible the relative merits of each system from the standpoint of compatibility with broad property fuel. Freezing point, thermal stability, and lubricity were key property issues. A computer model was formulated to determine the investment incentive for each system. Results are given.

Measuring reactive oxygen and nitrogen species with fluorescent probes: challenges and limitations

PubMed Central

Kalyanaraman, Balaraman; Darley-Usmar, Victor; Davies, Kelvin J.A.; Dennery, Phyllis A.; Forman, Henry Jay; Grisham, Matthew B.; Mann, Giovanni E.; Moore, Kevin; Roberts, L. Jackson; Ischiropoulos, Harry

2013-01-01

The purpose of this position paper is to present a critical analysis of the challenges and limitations of the most widely used fluorescent probes for detecting and measuring reactive oxygen and nitrogen species. Where feasible, we have made recommendations for the use of alternate probes and appropriate analytical techniques that measure the specific products formed from the reactions between fluorescent probes and reactive oxygen and nitrogen species. We have proposed guidelines that will help present and future researchers with regard to the optimal use of selected fluorescent probes and interpretation of results. PMID:22027063

Energy self-sufficiency in Northampton, Massachusetts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The study is not an engineering analysis but begins the process of exploring the potential for conservation and local renewable-resource development in a specific community, Northampton, Massachusetts, with the social, institutional, and environmental factors in that community taken into account. Section I is an extensive executive summary of the full study, and Section II is a detailed examination of the potential for increased local energy self-sufficiency in Northampton, including current and future demand estimates, the possible role of conservation and renewable resources, and a discussion of the economic and social implications of alternative energy systems. (MOW)

The role and effect of complementary and alternative medicine in systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Haija, Anan J; Schulz, Steffan W

2011-02-01

The use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is common among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), especially those with active disease who often have poorer quality of life and significant unmet needs. It is important for the rheumatologist to be aware of these therapies and to ask the patient with SLE about their active use or future interest in CAM. Future studies on the effectiveness of the aforementioned therapies will be crucial to find better ways for the rheumatologist to integrate their use into the care of the patient with SLE. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Environmental and economic comparisons of the satellite power system and six alternative energy technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitfield, R. G.; Habegger, L. J.; Levine, E. P.; Tanzman, E.

1981-04-01

The satellite power system (SPS) was compared with alternative systems on life cycle cost and environmental impacts. Environmental and economic effects are evaluated and subdivided into the following issue areas: human health and safety, environmental welfare, resources (land, materials, energy, water, labor), macroeconomics, socioeconomics, and institutional. These evaluations are based on technology characterization data and alternative futures scenarios, developed as part of CDEP. The technologies and the scenarios are described. The cost and performance of the SPS and the alternative technologies provide the basis of the macroeconomic analyses.

Society of Gynecologic Oncology Future of Physician Payment Reform Task Force report: The Endometrial Cancer Alternative Payment Model (ECAP).

PubMed

Ko, Emily M; Havrilesky, Laura J; Alvarez, Ronald D; Zivanovic, Oliver; Boyd, Leslie R; Jewell, Elizabeth L; Timmins, Patrick F; Gibb, Randall S; Jhingran, Anuja; Cohn, David E; Dowdy, Sean C; Powell, Matthew A; Chalas, Eva; Huang, Yongmei; Rathbun, Jill; Wright, Jason D

2018-05-01

Health care in the United States is in the midst of a significant transformation from a "fee for service" to a "fee for value" based model. The Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015 has only accelerated this transition. Anticipating these reforms, the Society of Gynecologic Oncology developed the Future of Physician Payment Reform Task Force (PPRTF) in 2015 to develop strategies to ensure fair value based reimbursement policies for gynecologic cancer care. The PPRTF elected as a first task to develop an Alternative Payment Model for thesurgical management of low risk endometrial cancer. The history, rationale, and conceptual framework for the development of an Endometrial Cancer Alternative Payment Model are described in this white paper, as well as directions forfuture efforts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Three-Dimensional Magnetic Analysis Technique Developed for Evaluating Stirling Convertor Linear Alternators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geng, Steven M.

2003-01-01

The Department of Energy, the Stirling Technology Company (STC), and the NASA Glenn Research Center are developing Stirling convertors for Stirling radioisotope generators to provide electrical power for future NASA deep space missions. STC is developing the 55-We technology demonstration convertor (TDC) under contract to the Department of Energy. The Department of Energy recently named Lockheed Martin as the system integration contractor for the Stirling radioisotope generator development project. Lockheed Martin will develop the Stirling radioisotope generator engineering unit and has contract options to develop the qualification unit and the first flight unit. Glenn s role includes an in-house project to provide convertor, component, and materials testing and evaluation in support of the overall power system development. As a part of this work, Glenn has established an in-house Stirling research laboratory for testing, analyzing, and evaluating Stirling machines. STC has built four 55-We convertors for NASA, and these are being tested at Glenn. A cross-sectional view of the 55-We TDC is shown in the figure. Of critical importance to the successful development of the Stirling convertor for space power applications is the development of a lightweight and highly efficient linear alternator. In support, Glenn has been developing finite element analysis and finite element method tools for performing various linear alternator thermal and electromagnetic analyses and evaluating design configurations. A three-dimensional magnetostatic finite element model of STC's 55-We TDC linear alternator was developed to evaluate the demagnetization fields affecting the alternator magnets. Since the actual linear alternator hardware is symmetric to the quarter section about the axis of motion, only a quarter section of the alternator was modeled. The components modeled included the mover laminations, the neodymium-iron-boron magnets, the stator laminations, and the copper coils. The three-dimensional magnetostatic model was then coupled with a circuit simulator model of the alternator load and convertor controller. The coupled model was then used to generate alternator terminal voltage and current predictions. The predicted voltage and current waveforms agreed well with the experimental data, which tended to validate the accuracy of the coupled model. The model was then used to generate predictions of the demagnetization fields acting on the alternator magnets for the alternator under load. The preliminary model predictions indicate that the highest potential for demagnetization is along the inside surface of the uncovered magnets. The demagnetization field for the uncovered magnets when the mover is positioned at the end of a stroke is higher than it is when the mover is at the position of maximum induced voltage or maximum alternator current. Assuming normal load conditions, the model predicted that the onset of demagnetization is most likely to occur for magnet temperatures above 101 C.

Looking for alternative energy sources.

PubMed

Gross, Michael

2012-02-21

With unrest in oil-exporting countries, backlashes against biofuels and photovoltaics, and a nuclear incident in Japan, the year 2011 rattled confidence in future energy supplies. The search for alternatives is all the more urgent, but some of the solutions investigated hark back to fossil fuels that we can't afford to burn.

Alternative Fuels Data Center

Science.gov Websites

Alternative Fueling Infrastructure Tax Credit An income tax credit is available for 50% of the cost hydrogen. Unused credits may be carried over into future tax years. The credit expires December 31, 2022 State Department of Taxation and Finance page. (Reference New York Tax Law 187-b

The Carbon Impacts of Wood Products

Treesearch

Richard Bergman; Maureen Puettmann; Adam Taylor; Kenneth E. Skog

2014-01-01

Wood products have many environmental advantages over nonwood alternatives. Documenting and publicizing these merits helps the future competitiveness of wood when climate change impacts are being considered. The manufacture of wood products requires less fossil fuel than nonwood alternative building materials such as concrete, metals, or plastics. By nature, wood is...

Insure Thyself: A Look at Alternatives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weeks, Richard

2011-01-01

Annual double-digit increases in health insurance premiums may be the reality for school districts and private-sector employers for the foreseeable future. The author presents several factors that account for this unwelcome possibility. One cost-saving alternative for districts is to self-insure employees and assume the risks. Districts are…

STC synthesis of transportation funding sources and alternatives in the southeastern states now and in the future : research project capsule.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-02-01

The purpose of this synthesis is to examine a wide variety of alternative funding mechanisms currently employed : by individual states and to comprehensively assess policy and fi nance proposals with respect to their suffi ciency, : pragmatism, and p...

Apprenticeship: Which Way Forward?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur les Qualifications, Marseilles (France).

This volume presents the results of a seminar on apprenticeship in Europe entitled "Apprenticeship, Alternance and Dual Systems: Dead-Ends or Highways to the Future" (Marseilles, France, April 1994). It deals with ways in which alternating learning at school and work can provide young people with relevant work skills and facilitate their…

75 FR 52733 - Record of Decision (ROD) for Fort Bliss Army Growth and Force Structure Realignment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-27

... alternative consists of actions in three different categories (stationing/training, land use changes, and... (Stationing Action Alternative 4); land use changes that allow fixed site bivouac areas, mission support... supports Army expansion, future stationing actions, and land use changes and training infrastructure...

75 FR 61536 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; National Securities Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-05

... pools, managed futures, and real estate investment trusts.\\4\\ The AIP Service provides for settlement of... Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change To clarify Its Rules & Procedures Regarding Its Alternative Investment... NSCC's rules to clarify that an Alternative Investment Product (``AIP'') Service prospective member is...

Exercising the Ecological Imagination: Representing the Future of Place

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertling, Joy

2013-01-01

The ecological realities of many communities are desperate but not determined. As teachers inevitably encounter these realities in their communities, they can respond by activating students' imaginations to conceive of better alternatives. Greene (1995) outlined how the imagination has the power to envision alternative realities and better…

Alternatives Reality: What to Expect from Future Allocations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sedlacek, Verne O.

2014-01-01

For well more than a decade, the "endowment model" of investing has been synonymous with increasing allocations to alternative investment strategies, defined largely as hedge funds, private real estate, private equity and venture capital and other, generally less liquid or illiquid strategies compared to public markets. This trend…

Future Watch: Our Schools in the 21st Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery, Judith K.; Herer, Gilbert R.

1994-01-01

This article reviews major social, technological, economic, and political trends in the United States and relates this larger perspective to the practices of speech language pathologists and audiologists in the schools. Implications of these trends for alternative futures are drawn. (Author/DB)

Estimating ecosystem service changes as a precursor to modeling

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Future Midwestern Landscapes Study will project changes in ecosystem services (ES) for alternative future policy scenarios in the Midwestern U.S. Doing so for detailed landscapes over large spatial scales will require serial application of economic and ecological models. W...

Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

2016-01-01

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes, and risk tolerance.

Alternative fuelds in urban fleets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lindsay, T.

1994-12-31

In this presentation the author addresses four main objectives. They are to: discuss programs that are driving the introduction of alternative fuels into fleet operations in urban areas around the country; define alternative fuels; quantify the present use and future projections on alternative fuel vehicles (AVFs) in the Chicago metropolitan statistical area; and discuss benefits of increased use of alternative fuels in urban areas. Factors which touch on these points include: present domestic dependence on petroleum for autos, with usage exceeding production; the large populations in urban areas which do not meet Clean Air Standards; recent legislative initiatives which givemore » guidance and aid in the adoption of such strategies.« less

Alternative medicine in the workplace.

PubMed

Lippin, R A

1996-01-01

Workplace settings are ripe for the application of alternative medical interventions for a variety of reasons. Included among them are a shared interest in prevention by both the occupational and alternative medicine communities, economic incentives by corporations as major purchasers of healthcare to reduce healthcare costs and improve employee productivity, and the willingness of corporations to be differentially creative in their approach to delivering and purchasing healthcare. This paper describes the US workforce in transition, provides an overview of occupational medicine including current programs and emerging issues, describes the current applications of alternative medicine interventions in the workplace, and argues for future expanded application of alternative medicine in workplace settings.

Flexibility in flood management design: proactive planning under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2016-12-01

This paper presents a value-enhancing approach for proactive planning and design of long-lived flood management infrastructure given uncertain future flooding threats. Designing infrastructure that can be adapted over time is a method to safeguard the efficacy of current design decisions given future uncertainties. We explore the value of embedding "options" in a physical structure, where an option is the right but not the obligation to do something at a later date (e.g. over-dimensioning a floodwall foundation now facilitates a future height addition in response to observed increases in sea level; building extra pump bays in a drainage pumping station enables the easy addition of pumping capacity whenever increased precipitation warrants an expansion.) The proposed approach couples a simulation model that captures future climate induced changes to the hydrologic operating environment of a structure, with an economic model that estimates the lifetime economic performance of alternative investment strategies. The economic model uses Real "In" Options analysis, a type of cash flow analysis that quantifies the implicit value of options and the flexibility they provide. We demonstrate the approach using replacement planning for the multi-functional pumping station IJmuiden on the North Sea Canal in the Netherlands. The analysis models flexibility in design decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the new structure. Results indicate that the incorporation of options within the structural design has the potential to improve its economic performance, as compared to more traditional, "build it once and build it big" designs where flexibility is not an explicit design criterion. The added value resulting from the incorporation of flexibility varies with the range of future conditions considered, and the specific options examined. This approach could be applied to explore investment strategies for the design of other flood management structures, as well as be expanded to look more at flexibility within an infrastructure network rather than a single structure. Flexibility in flood management design:proactive planning under uncertainty

Data Farming and the Exploration of Inter-Agency, Inter-Disciplinary, and International "What If?" Questions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Steve; Horne, Gary; Meyer, Ted; Triola, Larry

2012-01-01

Data farming uses simulation modeling, high performance computing, and analysis to examine questions of interest with large possibility spaces.This methodology allows for the examination of whole landscapes of potential outcomes and provides the capability of executing enough experiments so that outlets might be captured and examined for insights. This capability may be quite informative when used to examine the plethora of "What if?" questions that result when examining potential scenarios that our forces may face in the uncertain world of the future. Many of theses scenarios most certainly will be challenging and solutions may depend on interagency and international collaboration as well as the need for inter-disciplinary scientific inquiry preceding these events. In this paper, we describe data farming and illustrate it in the context of application to questions inherent to military decision-making as we consider alternate future scenarios.

[Simulation in surgical training].

PubMed

Nabavi, A; Schipper, J

2017-01-01

Patient safety during operations hinges on the surgeon's skills and abilities. However, surgical training has come under a variety of restrictions. To acquire dexterity with decreasingly "simple" cases, within the legislative time constraints and increasing expectations for surgical results is the future challenge. Are there alternatives to traditional master-apprentice learning? A literature review and analysis of the development, implementation, and evaluation of surgical simulation are presented. Simulation, using a variety of methods, most important physical and virtual (computer-generated) models, provides a safe environment to practice basic and advanced skills without endangering patients. These environments have specific strengths and weaknesses. Simulations can only serve to decrease the slope of learning curves, but cannot be a substitute for the real situation. Thus, they have to be an integral part of a comprehensive training curriculum. Our surgical societies have to take up that challenge to ensure the training of future generations.

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

2014-12-01

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

Prediction of optimal safe ground water yield and land subsidence in the Los Banos-Kettleman City area, California, using a calibrated numerical simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, K. J.; Başaǧaoǧlu, H.; Mariño, M. A.

2001-02-01

Land subsidence caused by the excessive use of ground water resources has traditionally caused serious and costly damage to the Los Banos-Kettleman City area of California's San Joaquin Valley. Although the arrival of surface water from the Central Valley Project has reduced subsidence in recent decades, the growing instability of surface water supplies has refocused attention on the future of land subsidence in the region. This paper uses integrated numerical ground water and land subsidence models to simulate land subsidence caused by ground water overdraft. The simulation model is calibrated using observed data from 1972 to 1998, and the responsiveness of the model to variations in subsidence parameters are analyzed through a sensitivity analysis. A probable future drought scenario is used to evaluate the effect on land subsidence of three management alternatives over the next thirty years. The model reveals that maintaining present practices virtually eliminates unrecoverable land subsidence, but may not be a sustainable alternative because of a growing urban population to the south and concern over the ecological implications of water exportation from the north. The two other proposed management alternatives reduce the dependency on surface water by increasing ground water withdrawal. Land subsidence is confined to tolerable levels in the more moderate of these proposals, while the more aggressive produces significant long-term subsidence. Finally, an optimization model is formulated to determine maximum ground water withdrawal from nine pumping sub-basins without causing irrecoverable subsidence during the forecast period. The optimization model reveals that withdrawal can be increased in certain areas on the eastern side of the study area without causing significant inelastic subsidence.

The future (r)evolution of preimplantation genetic diagnosis/human leukocyte antigen testing: ethical reflections.

PubMed

de Wert, Guido; Liebaers, Inge; Van de Velde, Hilde

2007-09-01

There has been increasing support for combining preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) for specific diseases with a test for human leukocyte antigens (HLA) because the generation of HLA-matched umbilical cord blood cells may save the life of a diseased sibling. To date, this procedure has taken place in the context of conceiving another child--PGD/HLA testing type 1. However, it may well become possible to perform PGD/HLA testing outside this context, that is, to select matched embryos from which embryonic stem cells could be derived and used in cell therapy--PGD/HLA testing type 2. A proactive ethical analysis is needed and is presented in this article. Although PGD/HLA testing type 1 can be morally justified, the risks, pitfalls, and practical limitations of this procedure make it necessary to develop alternative strategies. PGD/HLA testing type 2 may provide an alternative strategy. From an ethical point of view, the controversial issue is that this procedure creates embryos purely for instrumental use. However, given the dominant view that the preimplantation embryo has only limited moral value, this alternative may be as morally justified as PGD/HLA testing type 1.

Use of Alternative and Complementary Medicine in Patients with Malignant Diseases in High-Volume Cancer Center and Future Aspects

PubMed

Kust, Davor; Šamija, Ivan; Marić-Brozić, Jasmina; Svetec, Branka; Miletić, Marija; Mamić, Gordana; Bolanča, Ante; Kusić, Zvonko; Fröbe, Ana

2016-12-01

Usage of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is steadily increasing over the last decades, gaining medical, economic and sociological importance. The aim of the present study was to assess the use of complementary and alternative therapies in cancer patients. A cross-sectional, descriptive survey design was used to collect data through an anonymous questionnaire. A total of 267 patients were included in the study. The prevalence of CAM use among cancer patients in this study was 60.3%. It was found that 61 heterogeneous CAM therapies were used, the most popular among patients being naturopathy/folk medicine. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, independent predictors of CAM use were high income, divorced status, female sex and younger age. In conclusion, considering the fact that a large proportion of patients used at least one CAM approach, we need to continue our efforts to improve the patient-oncologist communication in order to deliver most reliable information to patients and to better understand the possible standard medicine-CAM interactions. According to results of the latest studies, CAM therapies that help manage pain, nausea, fatigue, anxiety, and other symptoms should be integrated into the patient overall care.

Model-based confirmation of alternative substrates of mitochondrial electron transport chain.

PubMed

Kleessen, Sabrina; Araújo, Wagner L; Fernie, Alisdair R; Nikoloski, Zoran

2012-03-30

Discrimination of metabolic models based on high throughput metabolomics data, reflecting various internal and external perturbations, is essential for identifying the components that contribute to the emerging behavior of metabolic processes. Here, we investigate 12 different models of the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC) in Arabidopsis thaliana during dark-induced senescence in order to elucidate the alternative substrates to this metabolic pathway. Our findings demonstrate that the coupling of the proposed computational approach, based on dynamic flux balance analysis, with time-resolved metabolomics data results in model-based confirmations of the hypotheses that, during dark-induced senescence in Arabidopsis, (i) under conditions where the main substrate for the ETC are not fully available, isovaleryl-CoA dehydrogenase and 2-hydroxyglutarate dehydrogenase are able to donate electrons to the ETC, (ii) phytanoyl-CoA does not act even as an indirect substrate of the electron transfer flavoprotein/electron-transfer flavoprotein:ubiquinone oxidoreductase complex, and (iii) the mitochondrial γ-aminobutyric acid transporter has functional significance in maintaining mitochondrial metabolism. Our study provides a basic framework for future in silico studies of alternative pathways in mitochondrial metabolism under extended darkness whereby the role of its components can be computationally discriminated based on available molecular profile data.

Priority setting for orphan drugs: an international comparison.

PubMed

Rosenberg-Yunger, Zahava R S; Daar, Abdallah S; Thorsteinsdóttir, Halla; Martin, Douglas K

2011-04-01

To describe the process of priority setting for two orphan drugs - Cerezyme and Fabrazyme - in Canada, Australia and Israel, in order to understand and improve the process based on stakeholder perspectives. We conducted qualitative case studies of how three independent drug advisory committees made decisions relating to the funding of Cerezyme and Fabrazyme. Interviews were conducted with 22 informants, including committee members, patient groups and industry representatives. (1) DESCRIPTION: Orphan drugs reimbursement recommendations by expert panels were based on clinical evidence, cost and cost-effectiveness analysis. (2) EVALUATION: Committee members expressed an overall preference for the current drug review process used by their own committee, but were concerned with the fairness of the process particularly for orphan drugs. Other informants suggested the inclusion of other relevant values (e.g. lack of alternative treatments) in order to improve the priority setting process. Some patient groups suggested the use of an alternative funding mechanism for orphan drugs. Priority setting for drugs is not solely a technical process (involving cost-effective analysis, evidence-based medicine, etc.). Understanding the process by which reimbursement decisions are made for orphan drugs may help improve the system for future orphan drugs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An alternative strategy to teach biomechanics: The long jump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Vega, G. J.; Aguilera, J. A.; Puzzella, A. E.; Mallamaci, C. C.

2007-11-01

The work develops an alternative methodology to teach the Physics principles of Parabolic Cannon Shot in the career of Bioengineering using instead the physic-biological relationship of the long jump performed in Athletics. This is a closer-to-reality example for this discipline, and it is a field- and computer laboratory-reproducible practice that is simple to do by using affordable technology, because the practice can be filmed by the students in a real setting for future analysis off classroom hours. The data extracted from the film can be analysed and used to learn the physics of motion of the participating athletes, and to draw conclusions from their hands-on experience. As a main factor of the proposal, this latter characteristic aims at motivating the students to work and participate within a collaborative framework, so as to motivate them to reason and respond the questionnaire issues that stems from a real experience. A significant improvement of knowledge transference is thus attained by promoting teaching (and self-teaching) through reality-based perception, analysis and learning). This work is undergoing its first stage, and its conclusions arise from the observations on team-work dynamics. Quantitative results are expected for the following stages which are under way of execution.

Technology assessment of solar-energy systems. Part 1: An analysis of life-cycle costs of solar facilities. Part 2: Minerals critical to the development of future energy technologies in high and low solar scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathaye, J.; Ruderman, H.

1981-09-01

Solar and renewable technologies account for most of the increase in material requirements for energy technologies. The analysis identified 20 minerals where domestic reserves are inadequate to meet the demand. Domestic mine capacity is inadequate for 23 minerals. However, the world wide mine production capacity is adequate to meet the US demand for all the minerals. Energy related demand can therefore provide a potential market for some of these 23 minerals provided the US has deposits that can be exploited at worldwide competitive prices. For some critical and strategic minerals such as chromium the US demand peaks during a time period different than the period during which world demand peaks. The time period differences will help smooth market fluctuations and reduce the US vulnerability. Alternative technology designs can help mitigate diverse supply disruptions or sharp price increases. Alternatives may not always be available for a specific strategic and critical mineral. Each mineral may have to be analyzed and evaluated on its own merits before comparative options can be completely analyzed.

Alternative Polyadenylation in Glioblastoma Multiforme and Changes in Predicted RNA Binding Protein Profiles

PubMed Central

Shao, Jiaofang; Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Zengming; Jiang, Huawei; Lou, Xiaoyan; Foltz, Gregory; Lan, Qing; Huang, Qiang

2013-01-01

Abstract Alternative polyadenylation (APA) is widely present in the human genome and plays a key role in carcinogenesis. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the APA products in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM, one of the most lethal brain tumors) and normal brain tissues and further developed a computational pipeline, RNAelements (http://sysbio.zju.edu.cn/RNAelements/), using covariance model from known RNA binding protein (RBP) targets acquired by RNA Immunoprecipitation (RIP) analysis. We identified 4530 APA isoforms for 2733 genes in GBM, and found that 182 APA isoforms from 148 genes showed significant differential expression between normal and GBM brain tissues. We then focused on three genes with long and short APA isoforms that show inconsistent expression changes between normal and GBM brain tissues. These were myocyte enhancer factor 2D, heat shock factor binding protein 1, and polyhomeotic homolog 1 (Drosophila). Using the RNAelements program, we found that RBP binding sites were enriched in the alternative regions between the first and the last polyadenylation sites, which would result in the short APA forms escaping regulation from those RNA binding proteins. To the best of our knowledge, this report is the first comprehensive APA isoform dataset for GBM and normal brain tissues. Additionally, we demonstrated a putative novel APA-mediated mechanism for controlling RNA stability and translation for APA isoforms. These observations collectively lay a foundation for novel diagnostics and molecular mechanisms that can inform future therapeutic interventions for GBM. PMID:23421905

Ecology: Accumulating Threats to Life.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Russell W.

1980-01-01

This article identifies the cumulative effects of some environmental problems facing mankind and presents possible alternative futures. The author discusses the pervasive infiltration and detrimental effects in the biosphere of polychlorinated biphenyls, the recent increase in acid rain, the loss of tropical rain forest lands, and future energy…

Computer Simulation in Tomorrow's Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, David

1984-01-01

Suggests use of simulation as an educational strategy has promise for the school of the future; discusses specific advantages of simulations over alternative educational methods, role of microcomputers in educational simulation, and past obstacles and future promise of microcomputer simulations; and presents a literature review on effectiveness of…

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis,more » and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.« less

Towards photometry pipeline of the Indonesian space surveillance system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priyatikanto, Rhorom; Religia, Bahar; Rachman, Abdul; Dani, Tiar

2015-09-01

Optical observation through sub-meter telescope equipped with CCD camera becomes alternative method for increasing orbital debris detection and surveillance. This observational mode is expected to eye medium-sized objects in higher orbits (e.g. MEO, GTO, GSO & GEO), beyond the reach of usual radar system. However, such observation of fast moving objects demands special treatment and analysis technique. In this study, we performed photometric analysis of the satellite track images photographed using rehabilitated Schmidt Bima Sakti telescope in Bosscha Observatory. The Hough transformation was implemented to automatically detect linear streak from the images. From this analysis and comparison to USSPACECOM catalog, two satellites were identified and associated with inactive Thuraya-3 satellite and Satcom-3 debris which are located at geostationary orbit. Further aperture photometry analysis revealed the periodicity of tumbling Satcom-3 debris. In the near future, it is not impossible to apply similar scheme to establish an analysis pipeline for optical space surveillance system hosted in Indonesia.

Evaluation of Intraosseous Fluid as an Alternative Biological Specimen in Postmortem Toxicology.

PubMed

Rodda, Luke N; Volk, Justin A; Moffat, Ellen; Williams, Chinyere M; Lynch, Kara L; Wu, Alan H B

2018-04-01

The postmortem redistribution phenomenon is an important factor in the interpretation of blood drug concentrations as a cause or factor in death. Intraosseous fluid (IOF) may serve as an alternative matrix for drug testing. Intraosseous fluid was collected from the left and right tibias and humerus of 29 decedents using the Arrow EZ-IO Intraosseous Vascular Access System. Standard autopsy specimens including blood were also collected at the same time during autopsy. Blood and IOF specimens were screened by immunoassay for opioids, fentanyl analogs, oxycodone, methadone, cocaine, methamphetamine, amphetamines, phencyclidine, tricyclic antidepressants, benzodiazepines and cannabinoids, using commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits. Correlation between cardiac/central blood ELISA and IOF ELISA results was mostly 100% for drug targets. Further blood confirmation analysis was performed by gas chromatography mass spectrometry also showed comparable correlation to IOF screen results. There was no significant difference between the IOF sites or sides of the body. This novel study supports the use of IOF as an alternative postmortem specimen for toxicological investigations as a potentially less-compromised tissue in decomposed or traumatized bodies. Preliminary data is provided for the screening of common drugs of abuse in IOF that may show to be subject to alternative rates of postmortem redistribution than to that of other biological specimens in future studies that quantitate IOF drug concentrations.

Overview of NASA Magnet and Linear Alternator Research Efforts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geng, Steven M.; Schwarze, Gene E.; Nieda, Janis M.

2005-01-01

The Department of Energy, Lockheed Martin, Stirling Technology Company, and NASA Glenn Research Center are developing a high-efficiency, 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) for NASA Space Science missions. NASA Glenn is conducting in-house research on rare earth permanent magnets and on linear alternators to assist in developing a free-piston Stirling convertor for the SRG110 and for developing advanced technology. The permanent magnet research efforts include magnet characterization, short-term magnet aging tests, and long-term magnet aging tests. Linear alternator research efforts have begun just recently at GRC with the characterization of a moving iron type linear alternator using GRC's alternator test rig. This paper reports on the progress and future plans of GRC's magnet and linear alternator research efforts.

Overview of NASA Magnet and Linear Alternator Research Efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Steven M.; Niedra, Janis M.; Schwarze, Gene E.

2005-02-01

The Department of Energy, Lockheed Martin, Stirling Technology Company, and NASA Glenn Research Center are developing a high-efficiency, 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) for NASA Space Science missions. NASA Glenn is conducting in-house research on rare earth permanent magnets and on linear alternators to assist in developing a free-piston Stirling convertor for the SRG110 and for developing advanced technology. The permanent magnet research efforts include magnet characterization, short-term magnet aging tests, and long-term magnet aging tests. Linear alternator research efforts have begun just recently at GRC with the characterization of a moving iron type linear alternator using GRC's alternator test rig. This paper reports on the progress and future plans of GRC's magnet and linear alternator research efforts.

Potential uncertainty reduction in model-averaged benchmark dose estimates informed by an additional dose study.

PubMed

Shao, Kan; Small, Mitchell J

2011-10-01

A methodology is presented for assessing the information value of an additional dosage experiment in existing bioassay studies. The analysis demonstrates the potential reduction in the uncertainty of toxicity metrics derived from expanded studies, providing insights for future studies. Bayesian methods are used to fit alternative dose-response models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for parameter estimation and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to compare and combine the alternative models. BMA predictions for benchmark dose (BMD) are developed, with uncertainty in these predictions used to derive the lower bound BMDL. The MCMC and BMA results provide a basis for a subsequent Monte Carlo analysis that backcasts the dosage where an additional test group would have been most beneficial in reducing the uncertainty in the BMD prediction, along with the magnitude of the expected uncertainty reduction. Uncertainty reductions are measured in terms of reduced interval widths of predicted BMD values and increases in BMDL values that occur as a result of this reduced uncertainty. The methodology is illustrated using two existing data sets for TCDD carcinogenicity, fitted with two alternative dose-response models (logistic and quantal-linear). The example shows that an additional dose at a relatively high value would have been most effective for reducing the uncertainty in BMA BMD estimates, with predicted reductions in the widths of uncertainty intervals of approximately 30%, and expected increases in BMDL values of 5-10%. The results demonstrate that dose selection for studies that subsequently inform dose-response models can benefit from consideration of how these models will be fit, combined, and interpreted. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

2017-12-01

Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost-benefit analysis produce many scenarios where nuclear energy is economically unattractive.

Genome-Wide Transcriptome Analysis Reveals Extensive Alternative Splicing Events in the Protoscoleces of Echinococcus granulosus and Echinococcus multilocularis

PubMed Central

Liu, Shuai; Zhou, Xiaosu; Hao, Lili; Piao, Xianyu; Hou, Nan; Chen, Qijun

2017-01-01

Alternative splicing (AS), as one of the most important topics in the post-genomic era, has been extensively studied in numerous organisms. However, little is known about the prevalence and characteristics of AS in Echinococcus species, which can cause significant health problems to humans and domestic animals. Based on high-throughput RNA-sequencing data, we performed a genome-wide survey of AS in two major pathogens of echinococcosis-Echinococcus granulosus and Echinococcus multilocularis. Our study revealed that the prevalence and characteristics of AS in protoscoleces of the two parasites were generally consistent with each other. A total of 6,826 AS events from 3,774 E. granulosus genes and 6,644 AS events from 3,611 E. multilocularis genes were identified in protoscolex transcriptomes, indicating that 33–36% of genes were subject to AS in the two parasites. Strikingly, intron retention instead of exon skipping was the predominant type of AS in Echinococcus species. Moreover, analysis of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway indicated that genes that underwent AS events were significantly enriched in multiple pathways mainly related to metabolism (e.g., purine, fatty acid, galactose, and glycerolipid metabolism), signal transduction (e.g., Jak-STAT, VEGF, Notch, and GnRH signaling pathways), and genetic information processing (e.g., RNA transport and mRNA surveillance pathways). The landscape of AS obtained in this study will not only facilitate future investigations on transcriptome complexity and AS regulation during the life cycle of Echinococcus species, but also provide an invaluable resource for future functional and evolutionary studies of AS in platyhelminth parasites. PMID:28588571

Conceptual design of a fleet of autonomous regolith throwing devices for radiation shielding of lunar habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armstrong, Karem; Mcadams, Daniel A.; Norrell, Jeffery L.

1992-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in conjunction with Universities Space Research Association (USRA) has requested that the feasibility of a fleet of regolith tossing devices designed to cover a lunar habitat for radiation protection be demonstrated. The regolith, or lunar soil, protects the lunar habitat and its inhabitants from radiation. Ideally, the device will operate autonomously in the lunar environment. To prove the feasibility of throwing regolith on the Moon, throwing solutions were compared to traditional, Earth-based methods for moving soil. Various throwing configurations were investigated. A linear throwing motion combined with a spring and motor energizing system proved a superior solution. Three different overall configurations for the lunar device are presented. A single configuration is chosen and critical parameters such as operating procedure, system volume, mass, and power are developed. The report is divided into seven main sections. First, the Introduction section gives background information, defines the project requirements and the design criteria, and presents the methodology used for the completion of this design. Next, the Preliminary Analysis section presents background information on characteristics of lunar habitats and the lunar environment. Then, the Alternate Designs section presents alternate solutions to each of the critical functions of the device. Fourth, a detailed analysis of throwing the regolith is done to demonstrate its feasibility. Then, the three overall design configurations are presented. Next, a configuration is selected and the conceptual design is expanded to include system performance characteristics, size, and mass. Finally, the Conclusions and Recommendations for Future Work section evaluates the design, outlines the next step to be taken in the design process, and suggests possible goals for future design work.

Techniques for water demand analysis and forecasting: Puerto Rico, a case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Close, E.R.; Lopez, M.A.

1975-01-01

The rapid economic growth of the Commonwealth-of Puerto Rico since 1947 has brought public pressure on Government agencies for rapid development of public water supply and waste treatment facilities. Since 1945 the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority has had the responsibility for planning, developing and operating water supply and waste treatment facilities on a municipal basis. The purpose of this study was to develop operational techniques whereby a planning agency, such as the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority, could project the temporal and spatial distribution of .future water demands. This report is part of a 2-year cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Quality Board of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, for the development of systems analysis techniques for use in water resources planning. While the Commonwealth was assisted in the development of techniques to facilitate ongoing planning, the U.S. Geological Survey attempted to gain insights in order to better interface its data collection efforts with the planning process. The report reviews the institutional structure associated with water resources planning for the Commonwealth. A brief description of alternative water demand forecasting procedures is presented and specific techniques and analyses of Puerto Rico demand data are discussed. Water demand models for a specific area of Puerto Rico are then developed. These models provide a framework for making several sets of water demand forecasts based on alternative economic and demographic assumptions. In the second part of this report, the historical impact of water resources investment on regional economic development is analyzed and related to water demand .forecasting. Conclusions and future data needs are in the last section.

Are We There Yet? Alternative Fuels for School Buses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lea, Dennis; Carter, Deborah

2009-01-01

America's annual oil consumption continues to increase and is projected to continue the upward spiral into the foreseeable future. Alternative-fuel options are available that are not only cheaper in some cases on an energy-equivalent basis but are also more environmentally friendly. Education leaders need to be concerned with both these facts.…

Businesses Partner with Schools, Community to Create Alternative Career Pathways

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Overman, Stephenie

2012-01-01

Business, education and community leaders are working together to create alternative career pathways for young people who are not profiting from the four-year college track. The new Pathways to Prosperity Network brings together the Pathways to Prosperity Project at Harvard Graduate School of Education (HGSE), Jobs for the Future (JFF) and six…

Local alternative energy futures: developing economies/building communities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Totten, M.; Glass, B.; Freedberg, M.

A separate abstract was prepared for each of the three parts of the conference. A sufficient range of information is presented to enable interested parties to explore the viable alternatives for community self-sufficiency. The parts are entitled: Financial Incentives and Funding Sources; Standards, Regulations, Mandates, Ordinances, Covenants; and Community/Economic Development. (MCW)

The impact of u.s. Energy policy on international health: alternate paths into the future.

PubMed

Ratcliffe, J W; Merrill, J C

1982-01-01

Historical, sociological, and epidemiological research shows that international health and mortality levels are determined primarily not by health sector policies but, instead, by national and international policies that shape the broader sociopolitical and economic systems within which health sectors are embedded. Such policies have traditionally been considered to lie outside the domain of the health sector and, therefore, not of concern to health educators. One such national policy with the potential to powerfully influence international health and mortality levels is the looming choice between alternate American energy paths: the capital-intensive, large-scale, and centralized "hard" path of non-renewable energy resources; and the labor-intensive, small-scale, and decentralized "soft" path of renewable energy sources. Substantial effort has been directed to projecting the physical environmental impacts in the United States for both paths. But the social environmental impacts of each path and their implications for international health have been ignored. This article reviews links between alternate U.S. energy paths and alternate international health futures, and their implications for health educators around the world.

Use of Cymbopogon citratus essential oil in food preservation: Recent advances and future perspectives.

PubMed

Ekpenyong, Christopher E; Akpan, Ernest E

2017-08-13

The economic burdens and health implications of food spoilage are increasing. Contamination of food sources by fungi, bacteria, yeast, nematodes, insects, and rodents remains a major public health concern. Research has focused on developing safer natural products and innovations to meet consumers' acceptance as alternatives to synthetic food preservatives. Many recent novel preservative techniques and applications of both natural and synthetic origin continue to proliferate in food and chemical industries. In particular, some essential oils of plant origin are potent food preservatives and are thus attractive alternatives to synthetic preservatives. This paper provides an overview of recent advances and future prospects in assessing the efficacy of the use of Cymbopogon citratus (lemongrass) essential oil in food preservation. The possible mechanisms of action and toxicological profile as well as evidence for or against the use of this essential oil as an alternative to synthetic food preservatives in domestic and industrial applications are discussed.

Positioning Food Cultures: ‘Alternative’ Food as Distinctive Consumer Practice

PubMed Central

Paddock, Jessica

2015-01-01

Many sociological studies to date have explored the role of food in marking distinctions between groups. Less well understood is how ‘alternative’ means of food consumption become figured in such relations. Drawing on accounts of food practice derived from 20 in-depth interviews and a two-year period of participant observation, this article considers the role of class culture in the practice of alternative food consumption. As participants speak their position, expressions of class arise through discussions of food practice. Having explored how food plays a part in marking boundaries of distinction between foods ‘for us’ and ‘for them’, we are reminded that in reproducing certain ideas about proper eating, we confine our imagining of alternative food futures to a limited politics of the possible. The article highlights implications for future development of equitable alternatives to conventional foodways. PMID:28018005

Consider the DME alternative for diesel engines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fleisch, T.H.; Meurer, P.C.

1996-07-01

Engine tests demonstrate that dimethyl ether (DME, CH{sub 3}OCH{sub 3}) can provide an alternative approach toward efficient, ultra-clean and quiet compression ignition (CI) engines. From a combustion point of view, DME is an attractive alternative fuel for CI engines, primarily for commercial applications in urban areas, where ultra-low emissions will be required in the future. DME can resolve the classical diesel emission problem of smoke emissions, which are completely eliminated. With a properly developed DME injection and combustion system, NO{sub x} emissions can be reduced to 40% of Euro II or U.S. 1998 limits, and can meet the future ULEVmore » standards of California. Simultaneously, the combustion noise is reduced by as much as 15 dB(A) below diesel levels. In addition, the classical diesel advantages such as high thermal efficiency, compression ignition, engine robustness, etc., are retained.« less

A situational analysis of current antimicrobial governance, regulation, and utilization in South Africa.

PubMed

Schellack, Natalie; Benjamin, Deon; Brink, Adrian; Duse, Adriano; Faure, Kim; Goff, Debra; Mendelson, Marc; Meyer, Johanna; Miot, Jacqui; Perovic, Olga; Pople, Troy; Suleman, Fatima; van Vuuren, Moritz; Essack, Sabiha

2017-11-01

The Global Action Plan on antimicrobial resistance calls for the use of antimicrobial medicines in human and animal health to be optimized, in tandem with a strengthening of the knowledge and evidence base through surveillance and research. However, there is a paucity of consumption data for African countries such as South Africa. Determining antimicrobial consumption data in low-resource settings remains a challenge. This article describes alternative mechanisms of assessing antimicrobial consumption data, such as the use of Intercontinental Marketing Services (IMS) data and contract data arising from tenders (an open Request for Proposal, RFP), as opposed to the international norms of daily defined doses per 100 patient-days or per 1000 population. Despite their limitations, these serve as indicators of antimicrobial exposure at the population level and represent an alternative method for ascertaining antimicrobial consumption in human health. Furthermore, South Africa has the largest antiretroviral treatment programme globally and carries a high burden of tuberculosis. This prompted the inclusion of antiretroviral and anti-tuberculosis antibiotic consumption data. Knowledge of antimicrobial utilization is imperative for meaningful future interventions. Baseline antimicrobial utilization data could guide future research initiatives that could provide a better understanding of the different measures of antibiotic use and the level of antibiotic resistance. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Space optics; Proceedings of the Seminar, Huntsville, Ala., May 22-24, 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wyman, C. L.

1979-01-01

The seminar focused on infrared systems, the space telescope, new design for space astronomy, future earth resources systems, and planetary systems. Papers were presented on infrared astronomy satellite, infrared telescope on Spacelab 2, design alternatives for the Shuttle Infrared Telescope Facility, Spacelab 2 infrared telescope cryogenic system, geometrical theory of diffraction and telescope stray-light analysis, Space Telescope scientific instruments, faint-object spectrograph for the Space Telescope, light scattering from multilayer optics, bidirectional reflectance distribution function measurements of stray light suppression coatings for the Space Telescope, optical fabrication of a 60-in. mirror, interferogram analysis for space optics, nuclear-pumped lasers for space application, geophysical fluid flow experiment, coherent rays for optical astronomy in space, optical system with fiber-optical elements, and Pioneer-Venus solar flux radiometer.

Direct coal liquefaction baseline design and system analysis. Quarterly report, January--March 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-04-01

The primary objective of the study is to develop a computer model for a base line direct coal liquefaction design based on two stage direct coupled catalytic reactors. This primary objective is to be accomplished by completing the following: a base line design based on previous DOE/PETC results from Wilsonville pilot plant and other engineering evaluations; a cost estimate and economic analysis; a computer model incorporating the above two steps over a wide range of capacities and selected process alternatives; a comprehensive training program for DOE/PETC Staff to understand and use the computer model; a thorough documentation of all underlyingmore » assumptions for baseline economics; and a user manual and training material which will facilitate updating of the model in the future.« less

Direct coal liquefaction baseline design and system analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-04-01

The primary objective of the study is to develop a computer model for a base line direct coal liquefaction design based on two stage direct coupled catalytic reactors. This primary objective is to be accomplished by completing the following: a base line design based on previous DOE/PETC results from Wilsonville pilot plant and other engineering evaluations; a cost estimate and economic analysis; a computer model incorporating the above two steps over a wide range of capacities and selected process alternatives; a comprehensive training program for DOE/PETC Staff to understand and use the computer model; a thorough documentation of all underlyingmore » assumptions for baseline economics; and a user manual and training material which will facilitate updating of the model in the future.« less

The emerging process of Top Down mass spectrometry for protein analysis: biomarkers, protein-therapeutics, and achieving high throughput†

PubMed Central

Kellie, John F.; Tran, John C.; Lee, Ji Eun; Ahlf, Dorothy R.; Thomas, Haylee M.; Ntai, Ioanna; Catherman, Adam D.; Durbin, Kenneth R.; Zamdborg, Leonid; Vellaichamy, Adaikkalam; Thomas, Paul M.

2011-01-01

Top Down mass spectrometry (MS) has emerged as an alternative to common Bottom Up strategies for protein analysis. In the Top Down approach, intact proteins are fragmented directly in the mass spectrometer to achieve both protein identification and characterization, even capturing information on combinatorial post-translational modifications. Just in the past two years, Top Down MS has seen incremental advances in instrumentation and dedicated software, and has also experienced a major boost from refined separations of whole proteins in complex mixtures that have both high recovery and reproducibility. Combined with steadily advancing commercial MS instrumentation and data processing, a high-throughput workflow covering intact proteins and polypeptides up to 70 kDa is directly visible in the near future. PMID:20711533

Strategic Planning as a Basis for Restructuring Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Charles F.; Mecca, Thomas V.

An educational planning model and instructional approach to prepare school administrators for the role of strategic planners are described. The model, ED QUEST, integrates future research techniques and divergent thinking modes into a participatory group process that provides visions of alternative futures. Primary activities in the process…

The TEF modeling and analysis approach to advance thermionic space power technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Albert C.

1997-01-01

Thermionics space power systems have been proposed as advanced power sources for future space missions that require electrical power levels significantly above the capabilities of current space power systems. The Defense Special Weapons Agency's (DSWA) Thermionic Evaluation Facility (TEF) is carrying out both experimental and analytical research to advance thermionic space power technology to meet this expected need. A Modeling and Analysis (M&A) project has been created at the TEF to develop analysis tools, evaluate concepts, and guide research. M&A activities are closely linked to the TEF experimental program, providing experiment support and using experimental data to validate models. A planning exercise has been completed for the M&A project, and a strategy for implementation was developed. All M&A activities will build on a framework provided by a system performance model for a baseline Thermionic Fuel Element (TFE) concept. The system model is composed of sub-models for each of the system components and sub-systems. Additional thermionic component options and model improvements will continue to be incorporated in the basic system model during the course of the program. All tasks are organized into four focus areas: 1) system models, 2) thermionic research, 3) alternative concepts, and 4) documentation and integration. The M&A project will provide a solid framework for future thermionic system development.

Promoting Metacognition in Introductory Calculus-based Physics Labs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grennell, Drew; Boudreaux, Andrew

2010-10-01

In the Western Washington University physics department, a project is underway to develop research-based laboratory curriculum for the introductory calculus-based course. Instructional goals not only include supporting students' conceptual understanding and reasoning ability, but also providing students with opportunities to engage in metacognition. For the latter, our approach has been to scaffold reflective thinking with guided questions. Specific instructional strategies include analysis of alternate reasoning presented in fictitious dialogues and comparison of students' initial ideas with their lab group's final, consensus understanding. Assessment of student metacognition includes pre- and post- course data from selected questions on the CLASS survey, analysis of written lab worksheets, and student opinion surveys. CLASS results are similar to a traditional physics course and analysis of lab sheets show that students struggle to engage in a metacognitive process. Future directions include video studies, as well as use of additional written assessments adapted from educational psychology.

Reflections on the Journal of Applied Psychology for 2003 to 2008.

PubMed

Zedeck, Sheldon

2017-03-01

The topic and theme content of the articles published during my term as editor of the Journal of Applied Psychology (2003-2008) are presented and discussed. The analysis of the content and trends is discussed in the context of attempts by my editorial team to influence what content was to be considered for publication as well as to engage in special efforts to generate more "theory" as well as alternative methodological approaches (e.g., qualitative data, content analysis, and the like) into the journal. The bigger issue for the perspective is whether the editorial team can influence what is published (yes) as opposed to what is researched (unlikely). The bottom line of the analysis is a call for future research that takes an interdisciplinary or multidisciplinary approach to the study of applied problems in a work setting. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Development of welded metal bellows having minimum effective diameter change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henschel, J. K.; Stevens, J. B.; Harvey, A. C.; Howland, J. S.; Rhee, S. S.

1972-01-01

A program of analysis, design, and fabrication was conducted to develop welded metal bellows having a minimum change in effective diameter for cryogenic turbomachinery face seal applications. Linear analysis of the principle types of bellows provided identification of concepts capable of meeting basic operation requirements. For the 6-inch (.152 m) mean diameter, 1.5-inch free length bellows studied, nonlinear analysis showed that opposed and nested toroidal bellows plates stiffened by means of alternating stiffener rings were capable of maintaining constant effective diameter within 0.3% and 0.1% respectively under the operating conditions of interest. Changes in effective diameter were due principally to bellows axial deflection with pressure differential having a lesser influence. Fabrication problems associated with joining the thin bellows plates to the relatively heavy stiffener rings were encountered and precluded assembly and testing of a bellows core. Fabrication problems are summarized and recommended fabrication methods for future effort are presented.

The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

PubMed Central

Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

1993-01-01

Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

2017-01-01

Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

A rare sugar xylitol. Part II: biotechnological production and future applications of xylitol.

PubMed

Granström, Tom Birger; Izumori, Ken; Leisola, Matti

2007-02-01

Xylitol is the first rare sugar that has global markets. It has beneficial health properties and represents an alternative to current conventional sweeteners. Industrially, xylitol is produced by chemical hydrogenation of D-xylose into xylitol. The biotechnological method of producing xylitol by metabolically engineered yeasts, Saccharomyces cerevisiae or Candida, has been studied as an alternative to the chemical method. Due to the industrial scale of production, xylitol serves as an inexpensive starting material for the production of other rare sugars. The second part of this mini-review on xylitol will look more closely at the biotechnological production and future applications of the rare sugar, xylitol.

Influence of MgO on Performance and Emissions of DI Engine using blends of Castor oil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganesan, S.; Padmanabhan, s.; Senthil kumar, J.; Polina, Navakanth; Krishna kumar, Sanivada

2017-05-01

With the technological development, the research over alternate fuels is increasing day by day in order to help the upcoming generation with a bright and greener future. In order to preserve the existing petroleum resources for future generation, it is necessary to soon switch to any alternate source which is easily available, renewable as well as environment friendly. In this paper I would like to highlight upon the usage of Diesel, Castor Oil and Nano Particles for a compression ignition engine and study the emission characteristics of this fuel at different mixing ratios and analyze the different levels of residue particles.

Preparing future fisheries professionals to make good decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colvin, Michael E.; Peterson, James T.

2017-01-01

Future fisheries professionals will face decision-making challenges in an increasingly complex field of fisheries management. Though fisheries students are well trained in the use of the scientific method to understand the natural world, they are rarely exposed to structured decision making (SDM) as part of an undergraduate or graduate education. Specifically, SDM encourages users (e.g., students, managers) to think critically and communicate the problem and then identify specific, measurable objectives as they relate to the problem. Next, users must think critically and creatively about management alternatives that can be used to meet the objectives—there must be more than one alternative or there is no decision to be made. Lastly, the management alternatives are evaluated with regard to how likely they are to succeed in terms of multiple, possibly completing, objectives, such as how stakeholder groups value outcomes of management actions versus monetary cost. We believe that exposure to SDM and its elements is an important part of preparing future fisheries professional to meet the challenges they may face. These challenges include reduced budgets, the growth of potentially competing natural resource interest groups, and stakeholder desire to be involved in management decisions affecting public trust resources, just to name a few.

Estimating Biofuel Feedstock Water Footprints Using System Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Inman, Daniel; Warner, Ethan; Stright, Dana

Increased biofuel production has prompted concerns about the environmental tradeoffs of biofuels compared to petroleum-based fuels. Biofuel production in general, and feedstock production in particular, is under increased scrutiny. Water footprinting (measuring direct and indirect water use) has been proposed as one measure to evaluate water use in the context of concerns about depleting rural water supplies through activities such as irrigation for large-scale agriculture. Water footprinting literature has often been limited in one or more key aspects: complete assessment across multiple water stocks (e.g., vadose zone, surface, and ground water stocks), geographical resolution of data, consistent representation of manymore » feedstocks, and flexibility to perform scenario analysis. We developed a model called BioSpatial H2O using a system dynamics modeling and database framework. BioSpatial H2O could be used to consistently evaluate the complete water footprints of multiple biomass feedstocks at high geospatial resolutions. BioSpatial H2O has the flexibility to perform simultaneous scenario analysis of current and potential future crops under alternative yield and climate conditions. In this proof-of-concept paper, we modeled corn grain (Zea mays L.) and soybeans (Glycine max) under current conditions as illustrative results. BioSpatial H2O links to a unique database that houses annual spatially explicit climate, soil, and plant physiological data. Parameters from the database are used as inputs to our system dynamics model for estimating annual crop water requirements using daily time steps. Based on our review of the literature, estimated green water footprints are comparable to other modeled results, suggesting that BioSpatial H2O is computationally sound for future scenario analysis. Our modeling framework builds on previous water use analyses to provide a platform for scenario-based assessment. BioSpatial H2O's system dynamics is a flexible and user-friendly interface for on-demand, spatially explicit, water use scenario analysis for many US agricultural crops. Built-in controls permit users to quickly make modifications to the model assumptions, such as those affecting yield, and to see the implications of those results in real time. BioSpatial H2O's dynamic capabilities and adjustable climate data allow for analyses of water use and management scenarios to inform current and potential future bioenergy policies. The model could also be adapted for scenario analysis of alternative climatic conditions and comparison of multiple crops. The results of such an analysis would help identify risks associated with water use competition among feedstocks in certain regions. Results could also inform research and development efforts that seek to reduce water-related risks of biofuel pathways.« less

Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in RCP-like scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vliet, Jasper

2013-04-01

Estimation of future emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols from human activities is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), however, all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented in the coming decades. In this study, we therefore explore the consequences of four alternative emission scenarios generated using the IMAGE integrated assessment model following the methods used to generate the RCPs. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W/m2 and 6.0 W/m2 (the high air pollution variants assume no improvement in emission factors, representing a hypothetical upper end of emission levels). Analysis using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 shows that climate mitigation and air pollution control policy variants studied here have similar large-scale effects on the concentrations of ozone and black carbon; the impact of climate policy, however, has a stronger impact on sulphate concentrations. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate already in 2020, and on the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other at the global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W/m2 in the 6.0 W/m2 scenario and -0.16 W/m2 in the 2.6 W/m2 scenario.

The challenges of studying visual expertise in medical image diagnosis.

PubMed

Gegenfurtner, Andreas; Kok, Ellen; van Geel, Koos; de Bruin, Anique; Jarodzka, Halszka; Szulewski, Adam; van Merriënboer, Jeroen Jg

2017-01-01

Visual expertise is the superior visual skill shown when executing domain-specific visual tasks. Understanding visual expertise is important in order to understand how the interpretation of medical images may be best learned and taught. In the context of this article, we focus on the visual skill of medical image diagnosis and, more specifically, on the methodological set-ups routinely used in visual expertise research. We offer a critique of commonly used methods and propose three challenges for future research to open up new avenues for studying characteristics of visual expertise in medical image diagnosis. The first challenge addresses theory development. Novel prospects in modelling visual expertise can emerge when we reflect on cognitive and socio-cultural epistemologies in visual expertise research, when we engage in statistical validations of existing theoretical assumptions and when we include social and socio-cultural processes in expertise development. The second challenge addresses the recording and analysis of longitudinal data. If we assume that the development of expertise is a long-term phenomenon, then it follows that future research can engage in advanced statistical modelling of longitudinal expertise data that extends the routine use of cross-sectional material through, for example, animations and dynamic visualisations of developmental data. The third challenge addresses the combination of methods. Alternatives to current practices can integrate qualitative and quantitative approaches in mixed-method designs, embrace relevant yet underused data sources and understand the need for multidisciplinary research teams. Embracing alternative epistemological and methodological approaches for studying visual expertise can lead to a more balanced and robust future for understanding superior visual skills in medical image diagnosis as well as other medical fields. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

On discounting of health gains from human papillomavirus vaccination: effects of different approaches.

PubMed

Westra, Tjalke A; Parouty, Mehraj; Brouwer, Werner B; Beutels, Philippe H; Rogoza, Raina M; Rozenbaum, Mark H; Daemen, Toos; Wilschut, Jan C; Boersma, Cornelis; Postma, Maarten J

2012-05-01

Discounting has long been a matter of controversy in the field of health economic evaluations. How to weigh future health effects has resulted in ongoing discussions. These discussions are imminently relevant for health care interventions with current costs but future benefits. Different approaches to discount health effects have been proposed. In this study, we estimated the impact of different approaches for discounting health benefits of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. An HPV model was used to estimate the impact of different discounting approaches on the present value of health effects. For the constant discount approaches, we varied the discount rate for health effects ranging from 0% to 4%. Next, the impact of relevant alternative discounting approaches was estimated, including hyperbolic, proportional, stepwise, and time-shifted discounting. The present value of health effects gained through HPV vaccination varied strongly when varying discount rates and approaches. The application of the current Dutch guidelines resulted in a present value of health effects that was eight or two times higher than that produced when using the proportional discounting approach or when using the internationally more common 4% discount rate for health effects, respectively. Obviously, such differences translate into large variations in corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The exact discount rate and approach chosen in an economic evaluation importantly impact the projected value of health benefits of HPV vaccination. Investigating alternative discounting approaches in health-economic analysis is important, especially for vaccination programs yielding health effects far into the future. Our study underlines the relevance of ongoing discussions on how and at what rates to discount. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The value of innovation under value-based pricing.

PubMed

Moreno, Santiago G; Ray, Joshua A

2016-01-01

The role of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in incentivizing innovation is controversial. Critics of CEA argue that its use for pricing purposes disregards the 'value of innovation' reflected in new drug development, whereas supporters of CEA highlight that the value of innovation is already accounted for. Our objective in this article is to outline the limitations of the conventional CEA approach, while proposing an alternative method of evaluation that captures the value of innovation more accurately. The adoption of a new drug benefits present and future patients (with cost implications) for as long as the drug is part of clinical practice. Incidence patients and off-patent prices are identified as two key missing features preventing the conventional CEA approach from capturing 1) benefit to future patients and 2) future savings from off-patent prices. The proposed CEA approach incorporates these two features to derive the total lifetime value of an innovative drug (i.e., the value of innovation). The conventional CEA approach tends to underestimate the value of innovative drugs by disregarding the benefit to future patients and savings from off-patent prices. As a result, innovative drugs are underpriced, only allowing manufacturers to capture approximately 15% of the total value of innovation during the patent protection period. In addition to including the incidence population and off-patent price, the alternative approach proposes pricing new drugs by first negotiating the share of value of innovation to be appropriated by the manufacturer (>15%?) and payer (<85%?), in order to then identify the drug price that satisfies this condition. We argue for a modification to the conventional CEA approach that integrates the total lifetime value of innovative drugs into CEA, by taking into account off-patent pricing and future patients. The proposed approach derives a price that allows manufacturers to capture an agreed share of this value, thereby incentivizing innovation, while supporting health-care systems to pursue dynamic allocative efficiency. However, the long-term sustainability of health-care systems must be assessed before this proposal is adopted by policy makers.

The value of innovation under value-based pricing

PubMed Central

Moreno, Santiago G.; Ray, Joshua A.

2016-01-01

Objective The role of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in incentivizing innovation is controversial. Critics of CEA argue that its use for pricing purposes disregards the ‘value of innovation’ reflected in new drug development, whereas supporters of CEA highlight that the value of innovation is already accounted for. Our objective in this article is to outline the limitations of the conventional CEA approach, while proposing an alternative method of evaluation that captures the value of innovation more accurately. Method The adoption of a new drug benefits present and future patients (with cost implications) for as long as the drug is part of clinical practice. Incidence patients and off-patent prices are identified as two key missing features preventing the conventional CEA approach from capturing 1) benefit to future patients and 2) future savings from off-patent prices. The proposed CEA approach incorporates these two features to derive the total lifetime value of an innovative drug (i.e., the value of innovation). Results The conventional CEA approach tends to underestimate the value of innovative drugs by disregarding the benefit to future patients and savings from off-patent prices. As a result, innovative drugs are underpriced, only allowing manufacturers to capture approximately 15% of the total value of innovation during the patent protection period. In addition to including the incidence population and off-patent price, the alternative approach proposes pricing new drugs by first negotiating the share of value of innovation to be appropriated by the manufacturer (>15%?) and payer (<85%?), in order to then identify the drug price that satisfies this condition. Conclusion We argue for a modification to the conventional CEA approach that integrates the total lifetime value of innovative drugs into CEA, by taking into account off-patent pricing and future patients. The proposed approach derives a price that allows manufacturers to capture an agreed share of this value, thereby incentivizing innovation, while supporting health-care systems to pursue dynamic allocative efficiency. However, the long-term sustainability of health-care systems must be assessed before this proposal is adopted by policy makers. PMID:27123192

Gas Foil Bearings for Space Propulsion Nuclear Electric Power Generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howard, Samuel A.; DellaCorte, Christopher

2006-01-01

The choice of power conversion technology is critical in directing the design of a space vehicle for the future NASA mission to Mars. One candidate design consists of a foil bearing supported turbo alternator driven by a helium-xenon gas mixture heated by a nuclear reactor. The system is a closed-loop, meaning there is a constant volume of process fluid that is sealed from the environment. Therefore, foil bearings are proposed due to their ability to use the process gas as a lubricant. As such, the rotor dynamics of a foil bearing supported rotor is an important factor in the eventual design. The current work describes a rotor dynamic analysis to assess the viability of such a system. A brief technology background, assumptions, analyses, and conclusions are discussed in this report. The results indicate that a foil bearing supported turbo alternator is possible, although more work will be needed to gain knowledge about foil bearing behavior in helium-xenon gas.

Use and interest in complementary and alternative medicine among college students seeking healthcare at a university campus student health center.

PubMed

Nguyen, Jannett; Liu, Michael A; Patel, Rohini J; Tahara, Keli; Nguyen, Annie L

2016-08-01

There is growing data on complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) preferences among college students. While several studies have focused on undergraduate students, there is limited data on graduate students. Cross sectional analysis of undergraduate and graduate students seeking medical care at the University of California Irvine's Student Health Center (SHC). The survey assessed previous CAM use and preferences for future CAM use and education. The majority (67.0%) had used CAM within the last year, 27.0% would use CAM for their current health condition, and 51.9% would consider CAM for their current health condition if they were more knowledgeable. Most respondents desired more CAM education and indicated that they would try CAM modalities if covered under insurance. Most college students requested more knowledge to assist in their decisions to use CAM. These findings provide insight for health centers on the preferences of college student patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Software used with the flux mapper at the solar parabolic dish test site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miyazono, C.

1984-01-01

Software for data archiving and data display was developed for use on a Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) PDP-11/34A minicomputer for use with the JPL-designed flux mapper. The flux mapper is a two-dimensional, high radiant energy scanning device designed to measure radiant flux energies expected at the focal point of solar parabolic dish concentrators. Interfacing to the DEC equipment was accomplished by standard RS-232C serial lines. The design of the software was dicated by design constraints of the flux-mapper controller. Early attemps at data acquisition from the flux-mapper controller were not without difficulty. Time and personnel limitations result in an alternative method of data recording at the test site with subsequent analysis accomplished at a data evaluation location at some later time. Software for plotting was also written to better visualize the flux patterns. Recommendations for future alternative development are discussed. A listing of the programs used in the anaysis is included in an appendix.

Mapreduce is Good Enough? If All You Have is a Hammer, Throw Away Everything That's Not a Nail!

PubMed

Lin, Jimmy

2013-03-01

Hadoop is currently the large-scale data analysis "hammer" of choice, but there exist classes of algorithms that aren't "nails" in the sense that they are not particularly amenable to the MapReduce programming model. To address this, researchers have proposed MapReduce extensions or alternative programming models in which these algorithms can be elegantly expressed. This article espouses a very different position: that MapReduce is "good enough," and that instead of trying to invent screwdrivers, we should simply get rid of everything that's not a nail. To be more specific, much discussion in the literature surrounds the fact that iterative algorithms are a poor fit for MapReduce. The simple solution is to find alternative, noniterative algorithms that solve the same problem. This article captures my personal experiences as an academic researcher as well as a software engineer in a "real-world" production analytics environment. From this combined perspective, I reflect on the current state and future of "big data" research.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST SALMON: THE MOST LIKELY FUTURE AND SOME ALTERNATIVES

EPA Science Inventory

Throughout the Pacific Northwest, all wild salmon runs have declined since 1850 and some have disappeared. A sustainable future for wild salmon remains elusive. Billions of dollars have been spent in a so-far failed attempt to reverse the long-term decline. Each year, hundreds of...

75 FR 75847 - 40th Anniversary of the Environmental Protection Agency

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-07

...-energy alternatives to fossil fuels. The advances we make today will build a sustainable future for our... effect on our public health, the well-being of future generations, and the vitality of our economy. Just... for environmental justice in overburdened communities, and confronting global climate change. The work...

The role of multi-feedstocks for cellulosic biofuel production and their potential in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global transportation demands have led to concerns about the sustainability, costs, and environmental consequences of relying on petroleum to meet future energy needs. Future low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS) are being implemented worldwide to evaluate alternative fuel potential in reducing greenho...

Community College Roles in Teacher Education: Current Approaches and Future Possibilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Townsend, Barbara K.; Ignash, Jan M, ED.

2003-01-01

Examines the current role of community colleges in pre-service and in-service teacher education, including the development of the associate of arts degree in teacher education, the community college baccalaureate in teacher education, and alternative certification programs. Discusses factors influencing future trends and predictions about the…

The Future of Women's Athletics: Entertainment or Education?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Roberta J.

A well-rounded program of extramural opportunities for females which provides experience between the intramural model and the existing male intercollegiate models is presently nonexistent. Five possible alternatives to guide the future of athletics are suggested: (a) women could demand access to the existing model of male athletics; (b) women…

State of the art on alternative methods to animal testing from an industrial point of view: ready for regulation?

PubMed

Ashton, Rachel; De Wever, Bart; Fuchs, Horst W; Gaca, Marianna; Hill, Erin; Krul, Cyrille; Poth, Albrecht; Roggen, Erwin L

2014-01-01

Despite changing attitudes towards animal testing and current legislation to protect experimental animals, the rate of animal experiments seems to have changed little in recent years. On May 15-16, 2013, the In Vitro Testing Industrial Platform (IVTIP) held an open meeting to discuss the state of the art in alternative methods, how companies have, can, and will need to adapt and what drives and hinders regulatory acceptance and use. Several key messages arose from the meeting. First, industry and regulatory bodies should not wait for complete suites of alternative tests to become available, but should begin working with methods available right now (e.g., mining of existing animal data to direct future studies, implementation of alternative tests wherever scientifically valid rather than continuing to rely on animal tests) in non-animal and animal integrated strategies to reduce the numbers of animals tested. Sharing of information (communication), harmonization and standardization (coordination), commitment and collaboration are all required to improve the quality and speed of validation, acceptance, and implementation of tests. Finally, we consider how alternative methods can be used in research and development before formal implementation in regulations. Here we present the conclusions on what can be done already and suggest some solutions and strategies for the future.

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

PubMed

Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A

2017-06-13

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of mammography and clinical breast examination strategies

PubMed Central

Ahern, Charlotte Hsieh; Shen, Yu

2009-01-01

Purpose Breast cancer screening by mammography and clinical breast exam are commonly used for early tumor detection. Previous cost-effectiveness studies considered mammography alone or did not account for all relevant costs. In this study, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of screening schedules recommended by three major cancer organizations and compared them with alternative strategies. We considered costs of screening examinations, subsequent work-up, biopsy, and treatment interventions after diagnosis. Methods We used a microsimulation model to generate women’s life histories, and assessed screening and treatment impacts on survival. Using statistical models, we accounted for age-specific incidence, preclinical disease duration, and age-specific sensitivity and specificity for each screening modality. The outcomes of interest were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved and total costs with a 3% annual discount rate. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were used to compare strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying some of the assumptions. Results Compared to guidelines from the National Cancer Institute and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, alternative strategies were more efficient. Mammography and clinical breast exam in alternating years from ages 40 to 79 was a cost-effective alternative compared to the guidelines, costing $35,500 per QALY saved compared with no screening. The American Cancer Society guideline was the most effective and the most expensive, costing over $680,000 for an added QALY compared to the above alternative. Conclusion Screening strategies with lower costs and benefits comparable to those currently recommended should be considered for implementation in practice and for future guidelines. PMID:19258473

Alternative general-aircraft engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tomazic, W. A.

1976-01-01

The most promising alternative engine (or engines) for application to general aircraft in the post-1985 time period was defined, and the level of technology was cited to the point where confident development of a new engine can begin early in the 1980's. Low emissions, multifuel capability, and fuel economy were emphasized. Six alternative propulsion concepts were considered to be viable candidates for future general-aircraft application: the advanced spark-ignition piston, rotary combustion, two- and four-stroke diesel, Stirling, and gas turbine engines.

Environmental Assessment: Proposed Consolidated Warehouse, Hill Air Force Base, Utah

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-01

can be evaluated. It...420 916 180 243 50 3 37 206 50 7 G 43 91 5 508 57 0 47 0 847 896 341 50 5 5 39 50 9 24 0 58 1 5 16 42 849 13 77 883 C 295 840 430 125 U -01-HL- 0164m U ...91-WC-687m U -95-WC-28OP U -02-HL-0008m Proposed Action (Alternative A) Future Training Complex Alternate Location (Alternative D) Fu tu re Au to m

Lifecycle Industry GreenHouse gas, Technology and Energy through the Use Phase (LIGHTEnUP) – Analysis Tool User’s Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrow, William R.; Shehabi, Arman; Smith, Sarah

The LIGHTEnUP Analysis Tool (Lifecycle Industry GreenHouse gas, Technology and Energy through the Use Phase) has been developed for The United States Department of Energy’s (U.S. DOE) Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) to forecast both the manufacturing sector and product life-cycle energy consumption implications of manufactured products across the U.S. economy. The tool architecture incorporates publicly available historic and projection datasets of U.S. economy-wide energy use including manufacturing, buildings operations, electricity generation and transportation. The tool requires minimal inputs to define alternate scenarios to business-as-usual projection data. The tool is not an optimization or equilibrium model and therefore does not selectmore » technologies or deployment scenarios endogenously. Instead, inputs are developed exogenous to the tool by the user to reflect detailed engineering calculations, future targets and goals, or creative insights. The tool projects the scenario’s energy, CO 2 emissions, and energy expenditure (i.e., economic spending to purchase energy) implications and provides documentation to communicate results. The tool provides a transparent and uniform system of comparing manufacturing and use-phase impacts of technologies. The tool allows the user to create multiple scenarios that can reflect a range of possible future outcomes. However, reasonable scenarios require careful attention to assumptions and details about the future. This tool is part of an emerging set of AMO’s life cycle analysis (LCA) tool such as the Material Flows the Industry (MFI) tool, and the Additive Manufacturing LCA tool.« less

The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs

DOE PAGES

Askin, Amanda Christine; Barter, Garrett; West, Todd H.; ...

2015-02-14

Here, we present a parametric analysis of factors that can influence advanced fuel and technology deployments in U.S. Class 7–8 trucks through 2050. The analysis focuses on the competition between traditional diesel trucks, natural gas vehicles (NGVs), and ultra-efficient powertrains. Underlying the study is a vehicle choice and stock model of the U.S. heavy-duty vehicle market. Moreover, the model is segmented by vehicle class, body type, powertrain, fleet size, and operational type. We find that conventional diesel trucks will dominate the market through 2050, but NGVs could have significant market penetration depending on key technological and economic uncertainties. Compressed naturalmore » gas trucks conducting urban trips in fleets that can support private infrastructure are economically viable now and will continue to gain market share. Ultra-efficient diesel trucks, exemplified by the U.S. Department of Energy's SuperTruck program, are the preferred alternative in the long haul segment, but could compete with liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks if the fuel price differential between LNG and diesel increases. However, the greatest impact in reducing petroleum consumption and pollutant emissions is had by investing in efficiency technologies that benefit all powertrains, especially the conventional diesels that comprise the majority of the stock, instead of incentivizing specific alternatives.« less

Summary of ADTT Website Functionality and Features

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hawke, Veronica; Duong, Trang; Liang, Lawrence; Gage, Peter; Lawrence, Scott (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This report summarizes development of the ADTT web-based design environment by the ELORET team in 2000. The Advanced Design Technology Testbed had been in development for several years, with demonstration applications restricted to aerodynamic analyses of subsonic aircraft. The key changes achieved this year were improvements in Web-based accessibility, evaluation of collaborative visualization, remote invocation of geometry updates and performance analysis, and application to aerospace system analysis. Significant effort was also devoted to post-processing of data, chiefly through comparison of similar data for alternative vehicle concepts. Such comparison is an essential requirement for designers to make informed choices between alternatives. The next section of this report provides more discussion of the goals for ADTT development. Section 3 provides screen shots from a sample session in the ADTT environment, including Login and navigation to the project of interest, data inspection, analysis execution and output evaluation. The following section provides discussion of implementation details and recommendations for future development of the software and information technologies that provide the key functionality of the ADTT system. Section 5 discusses the integration architecture for the system, which links machines running different operating systems and provides unified access to data stored in distributed locations. Security is a significant issue for this system, especially for remote access to NAS machines, so Section 6 discusses several architectural considerations with respect to security. Additional details of some aspects of ADTT development are included in Appendices.

Beyond quantification: in situ analysis of transcriptome and pre-mRNA alternative splicing at the nanoscale.

PubMed

Cui, Yi; Liu, Jing; Irudayaraj, Joseph

2017-07-01

In situ analysis offers a venue for dissecting the complex transcriptome in its natural context to tap into cellular processes that could explain the phenotypic physiology and pathology yet to be understood. Over the past decades, enormous progress has been made to improve the resolution, sensitivity, and specificity of single-cell technologies. The continued efforts in RNA research not only facilitates mechanistic studies of molecular biology but also provides state-of-the-art strategies for diagnostic purposes. The implementation of novel bio-imaging platforms has yielded valuable information for inspecting gene expression, mapping regulatory networks, and classifying cell types. In this article, we discuss the merits and technical challenges in single-molecule in situ RNA profiling. Advanced in situ hybridization methodologies developed for a variety of detection modalities are reviewed. Considering the fact that in mammalian cells the number of protein products immensely exceeds that of the actual coding genes due to pre-mRNA alternative splicing, tools capable of elucidating this process in intact cells are highlighted. To conclude, we point out future directions for in situ transcriptome analysis and expect a plethora of opportunities and discoveries in this field. WIREs Nanomed Nanobiotechnol 2017, 9:e1443. doi: 10.1002/wnan.1443 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-term care financing: options for the future.

PubMed

Mulvey, Janemarie; Li, Annelise

2002-01-01

The aging of the baby boomers will have an enormous impact on the future of long-term care costs. This article projects the magnitude of that impact, discusses sources of financing, and considers the cost and feasibility of three options for financing future long-term care services. The authors investigate the alternatives of increasing personal savings, raising payroll taxes and expanding employer-sponsored private long-term care insurance coverage, respectively.

Assessment of potential future hydrogen markets in the U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kashani, A. K.

1980-01-01

Potential future hydrogen markets in the United States are assessed. Future hydrogen markets for various use sectors are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs from various alternatives is estimated, stimuli and barriers to the development of hydrogen markets are discussed, an overview of the status of technologies for the production and utilization of hydrogen is presented, and, finally, societal aspects of hydrogen production and utilization are discussed.

A Scenario Based Assessment of Future Groundwater Resources in the Phoenix Active Management Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, V. M.; Lant, T. W.

2007-12-01

The availability of future water supplies in central Arizona depends on the interaction of multiple physical and human systems: climate, hydrology, water and land-use policy, urbanization, and regulation. The problem in assessing future water supplies requires untangling these drivers and recasting the issue in a way that acknowledges the inherent uncertainties in climate and population growth predictions while offering meaningful metrics for outcomes under alternative scenarios. Further, the drivers, policy options, and outcomes are spatially heterogeneous - surface water supplies, new urban developments and changes in land-use will not be shared uniformly across the region. Consequently, different geographic regions of the Phoenix metropolitan area will be more vulnerable to shortages in water availability, and these potential vulnerabilities will be more or less severe depending on which factors cause the shortage. The results of this research will make several contributions to existing literature and research products for groundwater conservation and future urban planning. It will provide location specific metrics of water vulnerability and offer a novel approach to groundwater analysis; it will demonstrate the XLRM framework with an application to central Arizona Water resources. Lastly, it will add to the WaterSim climate model by spatializing the groundwater component for the Phoenix Active Management Area.

Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): II. Uncertainty analyses of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Fang; Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.; Streets, David G.

2014-04-01

Estimates of future emissions are necessary for understanding the future health of the atmosphere, designing national and international strategies for air quality control, and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so, thus it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. This paper is the second in a series that seeks to establish a more mechanistic understanding of future air pollutant emissions based on changes in technology. The first paper in this series (Yan et al., 2011) described a model that projects emissions based on dynamic changes of vehicle fleet, Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard-Trend, or SPEW-Trend. In this paper, we explore the underlying uncertainties of global and regional exhaust PM emission projections from on-road vehicles in the coming decades using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. This work examines the emission sensitivities due to uncertainties in retirement rate, timing of emission standards, transition rate of high-emitting vehicles called “superemitters”, and emission factor degradation rate. It is concluded that global emissions are most sensitive to parameters in the retirement rate function. Monte Carlo simulations show that emission uncertainty caused by lack of knowledge about technology composition is comparable to the uncertainty demonstrated by alternative economic scenarios, especially during the period 2010-2030.

The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serrenho, André Cabrera; Norman, Jonathan B.; Allwood, Julian M.

2017-05-01

Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heft, R. C.

1980-11-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heft, R. C.

1980-01-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

IMT-2000 Satellite Standards with Applications to Mobile Air Traffic Communications Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shamma, Mohammed A.

2004-01-01

The International Mobile Telecommunications - 2000 (IMT-2000) standard and more specifically the Satellite component of it, is investigated as a potential alternative for communications to aircraft mobile users en-route and in terminal area. Its application to Air Traffic Management (ATM) communication needs is considered. A summary of the specifications of IMT-2000 satellite standards are outlined. It is shown via a system research analysis that it is possible to support most air traffic communication needs via an IMT-2000 infrastructure. This technology can compliment existing, or future digital aeronautical communications technologies such as VDL2, VDL3, Mode S, and UAT.

Synthetic Genome Recoding: New genetic codes for new features

PubMed Central

Kuo, James; Stirling, Finn; Lau, Yu Heng; Shulgina, Yekaterina; Way, Jeffrey C.; Silver, Pamela A.

2018-01-01

Full genome recoding, or rewriting codon meaning, through chemical synthesis of entire bacterial chromosomes has become feasible in the past several years. Recoding an organism can impart new properties including non-natural amino acid incorporation, virus resistance, and biocontainment. The estimated cost of construction that includes DNA synthesis, assembly by recombination, and troubleshooting, is now comparable to costs of early stage development of drugs or other high-tech products. Here we discuss several recently published assembly methods and provide some thoughts on the future, including how synthetic efforts might benefit from analysis of natural recoding processes and organisms that use alternative genetic codes. PMID:28983660

STAR*D: helping to close the gap between science and practice.

PubMed

Shern, David L; Moran, Hazel

2009-11-01

Practical clinical trials, such as STAR*D (Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression), extend the traditional randomized controlled trial to real-world settings. Consumers and clinicians should be encouraged by STAR*D's 70% remission rate and should realize that for many participants remission required medication switching and augmentation. Policy makers should recognize the importance of easy access to a full range of treatments. Researchers should be sobered by the high attrition rate and the 30% of participants who did not achieve remission. Although more such practical trials are needed, future work must more meaningfully involve consumers in design, analysis, and interpretation.

From politics to policy: a new payment approach in Medicare Advantage.

PubMed

Berenson, Robert A

2008-01-01

While the Medicare Advantage program's future remains contentious politically, the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission's (MedPAC's) recommended policy of financial neutrality at the local level between private plans and traditional Medicare ignores local market dynamics in important ways. An analysis correlating plan bids against traditional Medicare's local spending levels likely would provide an alternative method of setting benchmarks, by producing a blend of local and national rates. A result would be that the rural and lower-cost urban "floor counties" would have benchmarks below currently inflated levels but above what financial neutrality at the local level--MedPAC's approach--would produce.

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

Treesearch

Alicia Azpeleta Tarancon; Peter Z. Fule; Kristen L. Shive; Carolyn H. Sieg; Andrew Sanchez Meador; Barbara Strom

2014-01-01

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned...

10 CFR Appendix II to Part 504 - Fuel Price Computation

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fuel Price Computation II Appendix II to Part 504 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS EXISTING POWERPLANTS Pt. 504, App. II Appendix II to Part... effects of future real price increases for each fuel. The delivered price of an alternate fuel used to...

10 CFR Appendix II to Part 504 - Fuel Price Computation

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Fuel Price Computation II Appendix II to Part 504 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS EXISTING POWERPLANTS Pt. 504, App. II Appendix II to Part... effects of future real price increases for each fuel. The delivered price of an alternate fuel used to...

Community Energy: A Social Architecture for an Alternative Energy Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoffman, Steven M.; High-Pippert, Angela

2005-01-01

Community energy based on a mix of distributed technologies offers a serious alternative to the current energy system. The nature of community energy and the role that such initiatives might play in the general fabric of civic life is not, however, well understood. Community energy initiatives might involve only those citizens who prefer to be…

Cost Containment: An Economist's View

PubMed Central

Neuhauser, Duncan

1980-01-01

Rising medical care costs are not the problem they seem to be, in part because quality of care is not considered. The problem may be more the absence of choice of alternative health benefit packages with price differences. The future of health services in the United States will have more competing alternatives requiring physicians to be more cost conscious. PMID:6992461

The Application of Natural Language Processing to Augmentative and Alternative Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Higginbotham, D. Jeffery; Lesher, Gregory W.; Moulton, Bryan J.; Roark, Brian

2012-01-01

Significant progress has been made in the application of natural language processing (NLP) to augmentative and alternative communication (AAC), particularly in the areas of interface design and word prediction. This article will survey the current state-of-the-science of NLP in AAC and discuss its future applications for the development of next…

75 FR 13600 - Nine Mile Point Nuclear Station, LLC, Nine Mile Point Nuclear Station, Unit No. 2; Draft...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-22

... shielding design and the ALARA program would continue in its current form. Offsite Doses at EPU Conditions..., such as fossil fuel or alternative fuel power generation, to provide electric generation capacity to offset future demand. Construction and operation of such a fossil-fueled or alternative-fueled plant may...

75 FR 8047 - Notice of Intent To Prepare a Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Duke Energy...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-23

... Energy Carolinas, LLC, to construct up to three (3) power generating wind turbines within the Pamlico... turbines in NC's coastal waters, entitled Coastal Wind, Energy for North Carolina's Future, dated June 2009... reasonable number of alternatives, including the no action alternative and constructing the wind turbines and...

Computational Science as Part of Technology Education: An Interview with Aaron Clark

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Technology Teacher, 2008

2008-01-01

As teachers search for the most appropriate form of TIDE education for the future, they must consider as many alternatives as possible. One such alternative is computational science, which is described in detail in this interview with Dr. Aaron Clark of North Carolina State University. Dr. Clark recently agreed to this interview, with the primary…

Complementary and Alternative Medicine in Rural Communities: Current Research and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wardle, Jon; Lui, Chi-Wai; Adams, Jon

2012-01-01

Contexts: The consumption of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) in rural areas is a significant contemporary health care issue. An understanding of CAM use in rural health can provide a new perspective on health beliefs and practice as well as on some of the core service delivery issues facing rural health care generally. Purpose: This…

Assessment of Current and Future Air Pollutant Emission Reduction Technologies for Marine Diesel Engines

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-01

33 6.3.1 Biodiesel ...6.3 Alternative Fuels There is some consideration of alternatives to liquid fossil oil fuels for the marine industry. Three of these are biodiesel ...Liquefied Natural Gas and Methanol – Dimethyl Ether. 6.3.1 Biodiesel An extensive review across many transportation sectors of the emissions of

Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara Sue; Sleeter, Benjamin Michael; Davis, Adam Wilkinson

2015-01-01

Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

Final Environmental Assessment for Shared Use Paths (SUP), Eglin Air Force Base, Florida

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

NEPA; 40 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] 1500-1508); the USAF environmental impact analysis process as effectuated by 32 CFR Part 989; and DoD...alternatives were considered, but not carried forward for analysis . Alternative B This alternative would consist of constructing a 10’ wide SUP...EA Section 2.3.1, page 12) No-Action Alternative This alternative also was carried forward for analysis . (EA Section 2.4.1, page 16) ENVIRONMENTAL

Economic analysis of U.S. ethanol expansion issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhuri, Malika

The dependency of the U.S. economy on crude oil imported from politically unstable countries, escalating energy demand world wide, growing nationwide environmental consciousness, and the Renewable Fuels Standards (RFS) government mandates are some of the primary factors that have provided a favorable environment for the growth and development of the U.S. ethanol industry. The first essay derives decision rules for a discrete-time dynamic hedging model in a multiple commodity framework under expected utility maximization and basis risk. It compares hedging performance of three types of hedging models, namely constant hedging, time-varying static hedging model and the new dynamic hedging rule derived in this study. Findings show that natural gas futures contracts were effective instruments for hedging ethanol spot price risk before March, 2005, when ethanol futures trading was initiated on the CBOT. However, post-March, 2005, corn and ethanol futures contracts proved to be efficient hedging instruments. Results also indicate that ethanol producers may effectively decrease variance of cumulative cash flows by hedging using ethanol, natural gas and corn futures prices using the traditional techniques. The study concludes that using the new dynamic hedge model in a three period and two commodity set up, producers can effectively reduce variance of cumulative cash flow by 13.2% as compared to the 'no hedge' scenario. In my second essay, I use choice based, conjoint analysis methods to estimate consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for alternative transportation fuels in the U.S. In this study, I consider unleaded gasoline and ethanol, which may be derived from corn or three different sources of cellulosic biomass as alternative transportation fuels. Results suggest that age and household income are some of the socioeconomic variables that significantly influence consumer's choice behavior. Results indicate considerable consumer preference heterogeneity. Welfare effects are analyzed when consumers are faced with restricted choice sets. Results suggest that possible government mandates on the consumption of E-10 and E-85 diminish welfare of individuals belonging to the segment 'Conventional Gasoline Acceptor'. Similarly, individuals belonging to 'Ethanol Acceptor' segment experience welfare losses if corn grain ethanol is not available as an alternative transportation fuel. Ethanol is increasingly being used as a gasoline oxygenate and a volume extender in the refinery and blender industry in the U.S. This paper estimates refinery and blender factor demand and evaluates price responsiveness of inputs. The study also develops and tests hypotheses regarding existence of structural change in the industry's demand for inputs. It determines whether there is a common shift point and adjustment rate for structural change in all the refinery and blender inputs by using gradual switching multivariate regression techniques and maximum likelihood methods. Results suggest a structural change in factor demand for inputs in the industry that occurs at different points and rates. Results also suggest that the demand for inputs, except for capital and unfinished oil, has become more inelastic over time.

Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musulin, Mike, II

The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes how synfuels and other conventional energy sources are rejected in favor of conservation, use of nuclear facilities, and use of alternative fuels.

Two-step complete polarization logic Bell-state analysis.

PubMed

Sheng, Yu-Bo; Zhou, Lan

2015-08-26

The Bell state plays a significant role in the fundamental tests of quantum mechanics, such as the nonlocality of the quantum world. The Bell-state analysis is of vice importance in quantum communication. Existing Bell-state analysis protocols usually focus on the Bell-state encoding in the physical qubit directly. In this paper, we will describe an alternative approach to realize the near complete logic Bell-state analysis for the polarized concatenated Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (C-GHZ) state with two logic qubits. We show that the logic Bell-state can be distinguished in two steps with the help of the parity-check measurement (PCM) constructed by the cross-Kerr nonlinearity. This approach can be also used to distinguish arbitrary C-GHZ state with N logic qubits. As both the recent theoretical and experiment work showed that the C-GHZ state has its robust feature in practical noisy environment, this protocol may be useful in future long-distance quantum communication based on the logic-qubit entanglement.

IMPROVING ALTERNATIVES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT. (R825758)

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental impact assessment (EIA), in the US, requires an objective and rigorous analysis of alternatives. Yet the choice of alternatives for that analysis can be subjective and arbitrary. Alternatives often reflect narrow project objectives, agency agendas, and predilecti...

System-Level Logistics for Dual Purpose Canister Disposal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalinina, Elena A.

2014-06-03

The analysis presented in this report investigated how the direct disposal of dual purpose canisters (DPCs) may be affected by the use of standard transportation aging and disposal canisters (STADs), early or late start of the repository, and the repository emplacement thermal power limits. The impacts were evaluated with regard to the availability of the DPCs for emplacement, achievable repository acceptance rates, additional storage required at an interim storage facility (ISF) and additional emplacement time compared to the corresponding repackaging scenarios, and fuel age at emplacement. The result of this analysis demonstrated that the biggest difference in the availability ofmore » UNF for emplacement between the DPC-only loading scenario and the DPCs and STADs loading scenario is for a repository start date of 2036 with a 6 kW thermal power limit. The differences are also seen in the availability of UNF for emplacement between the DPC-only loading scenario and the DPCs and STADs loading scenario for the alternative with a 6 kW thermal limit and a 2048 start date, and for the alternatives with a 10 kW thermal limit and 2036 and 2048 start dates. The alternatives with disposal of UNF in both DPCs and STADs did not require additional storage, regardless of the repository acceptance rate, as compared to the reference repackaging case. In comparison to the reference repackaging case, alternatives with the 18 kW emplacement thermal limit required little to no additional emplacement time, regardless of the repository start time, the fuel loading scenario, or the repository acceptance rate. Alternatives with the 10 kW emplacement thermal limit and the DPCs and STADs fuel loading scenario required some additional emplacement time. The most significant decrease in additional emplacement time occurred in the alternative with the 6 kW thermal limit and the 2036 repository starting date. The average fuel age at emplacement ranges from 46 to 88 years. The maximum fuel age at emplacement ranges from 81 to 146 years. The difference in the average and maximum age of fuel at emplacement between the DPC-only and the DPCs and STADs fuel loading scenarios becomes less significant as the repository thermal limit increases and as the repository start date increases. In general, the role of STADs is to store young (30 year or younger) high burnup (45 GWD/MTU or higher) fuel. Recommendations for future study include detailed evaluation of the feasible alternatives with regard to the costs and factors not considered in this analysis, such as worker dose, dose to members of the public, and economic benefits to host entities. It is also recommended to conduct an additional analysis to evaluate the assumption regarding the transportability and disposability of DPCs for the next iteration of the direct disposal of DPCs study.« less

The promise of complementarity: Using the methods of foresight for health workforce planning.

PubMed

Rees, Gareth H; Crampton, Peter; Gauld, Robin; MacDonell, Stephen

2018-05-01

Health workforce planning aims to meet a health system's needs with a sustainable and fit-for-purpose workforce, although its efficacy is reduced in conditions of uncertainty. This PhD breakthrough article offers foresight as a means of addressing this uncertainty and models its complementarity in the context of the health workforce planning problem. The article summarises the findings of a two-case multi-phase mixed method study that incorporates actor analysis, scenario development and policy Delphi. This reveals a few dominant actors of considerable influence who are in conflict over a few critical workforce issues. Using these to augment normative scenarios, developed from existing clinically developed model of care visions, a number of exploratory alternative descriptions of future workforce situations are produced for each case. Their analysis reveals that these scenarios are a reasonable facsimile of plausible futures, though some are favoured over others. Policy directions to support these favoured aspects can also be identified. This novel approach offers workforce planners and policy makers some guidance on the use of complimentary data, methods to overcome the limitations of conventional workforce forecasting and a framework for exploring the complexities and ambiguities of a health workforce's evolution.

Multi-carrier modulation analysis and WCP-COQAM proposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Hao; Siohan, Pierre

2014-12-01

In the vision towards future radio systems, where access to information and sharing of data is to be available anywhere and anytime to anyone for anything, a wide variety of applications and services are therefore envisioned. This naturally calls for a more flexible system to support. Moreover, the demand for drastically increased data traffic, as well as the fact of spectrum scarcity, would eventually force future spectrum access to a more dynamic fashion. For addressing the challenges, a powerful and flexible physical layer technology must be prepared, which naturally brings us to the question whether the legacy of the OFDM system can still fit in this context. In fact, during the past years, extensive research effort has been made in this area and several enhanced alternatives have been reported in the literature. Nevertheless, up to date, all of the proposed schemes have advantages and disadvantages. In this paper, we give a detailed analysis on these well-known schemes from different aspects and point out their open issues. Then, we propose a new scheme that aims to maximally overcome the identified drawbacks of its predecessors while still trying to keep their advantages. Simulation results illustrate the improvement achieved by our proposal.

Predictive models of safety based on audit findings: Part 2: Measurement of model validity.

PubMed

Hsiao, Yu-Lin; Drury, Colin; Wu, Changxu; Paquet, Victor

2013-07-01

Part 1 of this study sequence developed a human factors/ergonomics (HF/E) based classification system (termed HFACS-MA) for safety audit findings and proved its measurement reliability. In Part 2, we used the human error categories of HFACS-MA as predictors of future safety performance. Audit records and monthly safety incident reports from two airlines submitted to their regulatory authority were available for analysis, covering over 6.5 years. Two participants derived consensus results of HF/E errors from the audit reports using HFACS-MA. We adopted Neural Network and Poisson regression methods to establish nonlinear and linear prediction models respectively. These models were tested for the validity of prediction of the safety data, and only Neural Network method resulted in substantially significant predictive ability for each airline. Alternative predictions from counting of audit findings and from time sequence of safety data produced some significant results, but of much smaller magnitude than HFACS-MA. The use of HF/E analysis of audit findings provided proactive predictors of future safety performance in the aviation maintenance field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Shear-wave splitting and moonquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimech, J. L.; Weber, R. C.; Savage, M. K.

2017-12-01

Shear-wave splitting is a powerful tool for measuring anisotropy in the Earth's crust and mantle, and is sensitive to geological features such as fluid filled cracks, thin alternating layers of rock with different elastic properties, and preferred mineral orientations caused by strain. Since a shear wave splitting measurement requires only a single 3-component seismic station, it has potential applications for future single-station planetary seismic missions, such as the InSight geophysical mission to Mars, as well as possible future missions to Europa and the Moon. Here we present a preliminary shear-wave splitting analysis of moonquakes detected by the Apollo Passive Seismic Experiment. Lunar seismic data suffers from several drawbacks compared to modern terrestrial data, including severe seismic scattering, low intrinsic attenuation, 10-bit data resolution, thermal spikes, and timing errors. Despite these drawbacks, we show that it is in principle possible to make a shear wave splitting measurement using the S-phase arrival of a relatively high-quality moonquake, as determined by several agreeing measurement criteria. Encouraged by this finding, we further extend our analysis to clusters of "deep moonquake" events by stacking multiple events from the same cluster together to further enhance the quality of the S-phase arrivals that the measurement is based on.

Sensitivity Analysis of Multicriteria Choice to Changes in Intervals of Value Tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podinovski, V. V.

2018-03-01

An approach to sensitivity (stability) analysis of nondominated alternatives to changes in the bounds of intervals of value tradeoffs, where the alternatives are selected based on interval data of criteria tradeoffs is proposed. Methods of computations for the analysis of sensitivity of individual nondominated alternatives and the set of such alternatives as a whole are developed.

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

PubMed Central

Zaunbrecher, Virginia M.; Batteate, Christina M.; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F.; Corbett, Charles J.; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J.; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D.; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K.; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M.; Seager, Thomas P.; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A.

2017-01-01

Background: Decision analysis—a systematic approach to solving complex problems—offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. Objectives: We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. Methods: A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups’ findings. Results: We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. Conclusions: We advance four recommendations: a) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483 PMID:28669940

Noncontingent reinforcement, alternative reinforcement, and the matching law: a laboratory demonstration.

PubMed Central

Ecott, Cheryl L; Critchfield, Thomas S

2004-01-01

Basic researchers, but not most applied researchers, have assumed that the behavior-decelerating effects of noncontingent reinforcement result at least partly from adventitious reinforcement of competing behaviors. The literature contains only sketchy evidence of these effects because few noncontingent reinforcement studies measure alternative behaviors. A laboratory model is presented in which concurrent schedules of contingent reinforcement were used to establish a "target" and an "alternative" behavior. Imposing noncontingent reinforcement decreased target behavior rates and increased alternative behavior rates, outcomes that were well described by the standard quantitative account of alternative reinforcement, the generalized matching law. These results suggest that adventitious reinforcement of alternative behaviors can occur during noncontingent reinforcement interventions, although the range of conditions under which this occurs remains to be determined in future studies. As an adjunct to applied studies, laboratory models permit easy measurement of alternative behaviors and parametric manipulations needed to answer many research questions. PMID:15529885

Testing an alternate informed consent process.

PubMed

Yates, Bernice C; Dodendorf, Diane; Lane, Judy; LaFramboise, Louise; Pozehl, Bunny; Duncan, Kathleen; Knodel, Kendra

2009-01-01

One of the main problems in conducting clinical trials is low participation rate due to potential participants' misunderstanding of the rationale for the clinical trial or perceptions of loss of control over treatment decisions. The objective of this study was to test an alternate informed consent process in cardiac rehabilitation participants that involved the use of a multimedia flip chart to describe a future randomized clinical trial and then asked, hypothetically, if they would participate in the future trial. An attractive and inviting visual presentation of the study was created in the form of a 23-page flip chart that included 24 color photographs displaying information about the purpose of the study, similarities and differences between the two treatment groups, and the data collection process. We tested the flip chart in 35 cardiac rehabilitation participants. Participants were asked if they would participate in this future study on two occasions: immediately after the description of the flip chart and 24 hours later, after reading through the informed consent document. Participants were also asked their perceptions of the flip chart and consent process. Of the 35 participants surveyed, 19 (54%) indicated that they would participate in the future study. No participant changed his or her decision 24 hours later after reading the full consent form. The participation rate improved 145% over that of an earlier feasibility study where the recruitment rate was 22%. Most participants stated that the flip chart was helpful and informative and that the photographs were effective in communicating the purpose of the study. Participation rates could be enhanced in future clinical trials by using a visual presentation to explain and describe the study as part of the informed consent process. More research is needed to test alternate methods of obtaining informed consent.

Corneal Tissue Engineering: Recent Advances and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

Ghezzi, Chiara E.; Rnjak-Kovacina, Jelena

2015-01-01

To address the growing need for corneal transplants two main approaches are being pursued: allogenic and synthetic materials. Allogenic tissue from human donors is currently the preferred choice; however, there is a worldwide shortage in donated corneal tissue. In addition, tissue rejection often limits the long-term success of this approach. Alternatively, synthetic homologs to donor corneal grafts are primarily considered temporary replacements until suitable donor tissue becomes available, as they result in a high incidence of graft failure. Tissue engineered cornea analogs would provide effective cornea tissue substitutes and alternatives to address the need to reduce animal testing of commercial products. Recent progress toward these needs is reviewed here, along with future perspectives. PMID:25434371

The Need for Future Alternatives: An Investigation of the Experiences and Future of Older Parents Caring for Offspring with Learning Disabilities over a Prolonged Period of Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cairns, Deborah; Tolson, Debbie; Brown, Jayne; Darbyshire, Chris

2013-01-01

This article reports on the results of a qualitative study (in-depth interviews) carried out in the United Kingdom as part of a larger (two-phased) study investigating the experiences, health and future perspectives of older parent carers (six mothers and two fathers) of offspring with learning disabilities over a prolonged period of time. The…

Future Battles and the Development of Military Concepts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-22

Land Battle concept dating from the Cold War era. The author maintains tliat such an approach is tied to old ways of thinking; the world has changed...the current world economic and social state, along with anticipated future flash points around the globe; a new military operational concept titled...project power, let alone rival U.S. dominance on the high seas. An alternate and more plausible future is a world that will require frequent

Exploration of Potential Future Fleet Architectures

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-07-01

alternative architectures are those espoused by the OFT sponsoring office: flexibility, adaptability, agility, speed, and information dominance through...including naval forces, which we used. The OFT advocates flexibility, adaptability, agility, speed, and information dominance through networking...challenges and transnational threats. In future conflicts, the Navy has plans to expand strike power, realize information dominance , and transform methods

Fuels research: Fuel thermal stability overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, S. M.

1980-01-01

Alternative fuels or crude supplies are examined with respect to satisfying aviation fuel needs for the next 50 years. The thermal stability of potential future fuels is discussed and the effects of these characteristics on aircraft fuel systems are examined. Advanced fuel system technology and design guidelines for future fuels with lower thermal stability are reported.

The United States Air Force Reserve Officer Training Corps: Looking to the Future

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-04

Brigadier General Robin G. Tornow Commandant, Air Force ROTC (Note 25) Over the years, Air Force ROTC has developed many strong points. Paramount among...maintaining a leaner and more capable force for the future. Brigadier General Robin G. Tornow Commandant, Air Force ROTC (Note 35) This alternative

Executive Summary: Forests of the Northern United States

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Francisco X. Aguilar; Nianfu Song; Susan I. Stewart; David J. Nowak; Dale D. Gormanson; W. Keith Moser; Sherri Wormstead; Eric J. Greenfield

2012-01-01

This executive summary provides an overview of the 200-page report, Forests of the Northern United States, which covers in detail current forest conditions, recent trends, issues, threats and opportunities in the forests in the 20 Northern States. It provides a context for subsequent Northern Forest Futures Project analyses that will forecast alternative future...

Future Trends in Education Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newitt, Jane, Ed.

These essays deal explicitly with the future of the public schools and implicitly with the problem of making responsible predictions. Following an introduction by Herman Kahn, the first two essays deal with the social and social policy context of the schools. B. Bruce-Briggs contrasts alternative long-term and current cultural trends. Jane Newitt,…

Conceptual Paradigms and Empirical Investigations for Evaluating INTELSAT's Past Performance and Future Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snow, Marcellus S.

This paper summarizes the results of a recent study of the past performance and future prospects of the International Telecommunications Satellite (INTELSAT) Organization. First, an overview of INTELSAT's history is provided and major policy issues are detailed. Five alternative paradigms are then presented through which to evaluate INTELSAT's…

Sustainable Mobility, Future Fuels, and the Periodic Table

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wallington, Timothy J.; Anderson, James E.; Siegel, Donald J.; Tamor, Michael A.; Mueller, Sherry A.; Winkler, Sandra L.; Nielsen, Ole J.

2013-01-01

Providing sustainable mobility is a major challenge that will require new vehicle and fuel technologies. Alternative and future fuels are the subject of considerable research and public interest. A simple approach is presented that can be used in science education lectures at the high school or undergraduate level to provide students with an…

Exploring Future Energy Choices with Young People

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacGarry, Ann

2014-01-01

The article outlines a couple of the most recent resources developed by the Centre for Alternative Technology for teaching about energy. The key elements are providing sound information on all the significant sources and inspiring pupils to make their own decisions about energy futures based on evidence. Our experience is that engaging pupils in…

10 CFR 905.15 - What are the requirements for the small customer plan alternative?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... all reasonable opportunities to meet future energy service requirements using demand-side management... applicable, and contact person; (ii) Type of customer; (iii) Current energy and demand profiles and data on... and demand use for end-use customers; (iv) Future energy services projections; (v) How items in...

In Silico Analysis of the Regulation of the Photosynthetic Electron Transport Chain in C3 Plants1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Kramer, David M.

2018-01-01

We present a new simulation model of the reactions in the photosynthetic electron transport chain of C3 species. We show that including recent insights about the regulation of the thylakoid proton motive force, ATP/NADPH balancing mechanisms (cyclic and noncyclic alternative electron transport), and regulation of Rubisco activity leads to emergent behaviors that may affect the operation and regulation of photosynthesis under different dynamic environmental conditions. The model was parameterized with experimental results in the literature, with a focus on Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). A dataset was constructed from multiple sources, including measurements of steady-state and dynamic gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence, and absorbance spectroscopy under different light intensities and CO2, to test predictions of the model under different experimental conditions. Simulations suggested that there are strong interactions between cyclic and noncyclic alternative electron transport and that an excess capacity for alternative electron transport is required to ensure adequate redox state and lumen pH. Furthermore, the model predicted that, under specific conditions, reduction of ferredoxin by plastoquinol is possible after a rapid increase in light intensity. Further analysis also revealed that the relationship between ATP synthesis and proton motive force was highly regulated by the concentrations of ATP, ADP, and inorganic phosphate, and this facilitated an increase in nonphotochemical quenching and proton motive force under conditions where metabolism was limiting, such as low CO2, high light intensity, or combined high CO2 and high light intensity. The model may be used as an in silico platform for future research on the regulation of photosynthetic electron transport. PMID:28924017

78 FR 36298 - Notice of Intent to Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for the Federal Way Transit...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

..., and an alternatives analysis study. Early scoping notification for the alternatives analysis phase was... alternatives analysis findings, and other background technical reports are available on the project Web site... about the proposed [[Page 36299

Integration of Planetary Protection Activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Race, Margaret S.

2000-01-01

Research and activities under this grant have focused on a systematic examination and analysis of critical questions likely to impact planetary protection (PP) controls and implementation for Mars sample return missions (MSR). Four areas in the non-scientific and social realms were selected for special attention because of their importance to future mission planning and concern about critical timing or possible economic impacts on MSR mission implementation. These include: (1) questions of legal uncertainty and the decision making process, (2) public perception of risks associated with sample return, (3) risk communication and Education/Public Outreach , and (4) planetary protection implications of alternative mission architectures, for both robotic and human sample return missions. In its entirety, NAG 2-986 has encompassed three categories of activity: (1) research and analysis (Race), (2) subcontracted research (MacGregor/Decision Research), and (3) consulting services.

Transfers to the old, government debt and demographic change.

PubMed

Verbon, H A

1990-01-01

"In this paper we take the view that policy makers...take the relationship between (explicit) intergenerational transfer systems (including public pension schemes) and government deficits into account. It is assumed that policy makers are behaving altruistically towards past and future generations. Given the behavioral model, an analysis is made of the effects of demographic changes (such as the 'baby-boom' of the 1940s and 1950s and the decline of birth rates in the 1970s) on the decisions to be taken with respect to the tax rate of the public pension system and the size of government debt. From the analysis it appears that, with the assumption of altruistic decision-makers, periods of increasing or decreasing debt can occur alternately in periods of demographic change." The geographical focus is on developed countries. excerpt

Integrated systems analysis of persistent polar pollutants in the water cycle.

PubMed

van der Voet, E; Nikolic, I; Huppes, G; Kleijn, R

2004-01-01

Persistent polar pollutants (P3) are difficult to degrade in standard waste water treatment plants. As a result, they end up in the effluent and are emitted to the surface water. In some areas, this problem is aggravated through "closed loop recycling", causing concentrations of P3 in surface water to build up over time. This could cause violation of (future) EU regulations. In the P-THREE project, various alternative waste water treatment techniques are investigated regarding their effectiveness in eliminating these substances, especially membrane bioreactor treatment and advanced oxidation processes, MBR and AOP. The integrated systems analysis which is the subject of this paper assesses these techniques in a broader systems context: (1) the life-cycle of the P3, (2) the life cycle of the WWTPs, and (3) the WWTP life cycle costs.

The application of natural language processing to augmentative and alternative communication.

PubMed

Higginbotham, D Jeffery; Lesher, Gregory W; Moulton, Bryan J; Roark, Brian

2011-01-01

Significant progress has been made in the application of natural language processing (NLP) to augmentative and alternative communication (AAC), particularly in the areas of interface design and word prediction. This article will survey the current state-of-the-science of NLP in AAC and discuss its future applications for the development of next generation of AAC technology.

The End of Testing and Future Possibilities: An Examination of the Demise of SATs in England and Possible Alternative Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marshall, Bethan

2008-01-01

This article looks at the controversial starting of testing, its boycott, the subsequent years of protest and, in October 2008, the apparent end of key stage examining in England. It considers a possible alternative to the tests based on a project carried out at King's College London based on portfolio assessment.

Impact of Alternative Timber Management Policies on Availability of Forest Land in the Northeast

Treesearch

Owen W. Herrick

1977-01-01

Gaging the ability of the forest resource to satisfy future timber requirements is central to solving many problems arising from competition for use of forest land. In this study, production potentials of forest acreage in the Northeastern United States under management alternatives that range from extensive to intensive are weighed against several estimates of timber...

The history and future of methyl bromide alternatives in the southern United States

Treesearch

Tom E. Starkey

2012-01-01

This article gives a brief history of the efforts of the Southern Forest Nursery Management Cooperative (SFNMC) in testing methyl bromide (MBr) alternatives for soil fumigation. In the southeastern United States, fumigation with MBr has been the most commonly used method for producing high quality, pest-free forest seedlings in an environment that is conducive for soil...

Behavioral Outcomes of an Alternative Program for Junior High School Students at Risk of Dropping Out.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffin, Edward; And Others

The study examines the relationship between success upon leaving an alternative school program and immediate measures of program effect. The strength of the relationship was used to determine the degree to which the program effected its long term goals of preparing students for future academic or vocational success. Student success was defined as…

Prevalence of Complementary and Alternative Medicine Use among U.S. College Students: A Systematic Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nowak, Amy L. Versnik; Hale, Heidi M.

2012-01-01

Research shows that Americans are using increasing amounts of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) and that education is a significant predictor of CAM use. The purpose of this systematic review is to summarize key research findings on CAM use rates among U.S. college students and recommend future actions for researchers and health…

Automotive technology status and projections. Volume 2: Assessment report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dowdy, M.; Burke, A.; Schneider, H.; Edmiston, W.; Klose, G. J.; Heft, R.

1978-01-01

Current and advanced conventional engines, advanced alternative engines, advanced power train components, and other energy conserving automobile modifications which could be implemented by the end of this century are examined. Topics covered include gas turbine engines, Stirling engines, advanced automatic transmissions, alternative fuels, and metal and ceramic technology. Critical problems are examined and areas for future research are indicated.

Cost, energy, global warming, eutrophication and local human health impacts of community water and sanitation service options.

PubMed

Schoen, Mary E; Xue, Xiaobo; Wood, Alison; Hawkins, Troy R; Garland, Jay; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

2017-02-01

We compared water and sanitation system options for a coastal community across selected sustainability metrics, including environmental impact (i.e., life cycle eutrophication potential, energy consumption, and global warming potential), equivalent annual cost, and local human health impact. We computed normalized metric scores, which we used to discuss the options' strengths and weaknesses, and conducted sensitivity analysis of the scores to changes in variable and uncertain input parameters. The alternative systems, which combined centralized drinking water with sanitation services based on the concepts of energy and nutrient recovery as well as on-site water reuse, had reduced environmental and local human health impacts and costs than the conventional, centralized option. Of the selected sustainability metrics, the greatest advantages of the alternative community water systems (compared to the conventional system) were in terms of local human health impact and eutrophication potential, despite large, outstanding uncertainties. Of the alternative options, the systems with on-site water reuse and energy recovery technologies had the least local human health impact; however, the cost of these options was highly variable and the energy consumption was comparable to on-site alternatives without water reuse or energy recovery, due to on-site reuse treatment. Future work should aim to reduce the uncertainty in the energy recovery process and explore the health risks associated with less costly, on-site water treatment options. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of a Halbach magnetic array for long-range cell and particle separations in biological samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Joo H.; Driscoll, Harry; Super, Michael; Ingber, Donald E.

2016-05-01

Here, we describe a versatile application of a planar Halbach permanent magnet array for an efficient long-range magnetic separation of living cells and microparticles over distances up to 30 mm. A Halbach array was constructed from rectangular bar magnets using 3D-printed holders and compared to a conventional alternating array of identical magnets. We theoretically predicted the superiority of the Halbach array for a long-range magnetic separation and then experimentally validated that the Halbach configuration outperforms the alternating array for isolating magnetic microparticles or microparticle-bound bacterial cells at longer distances. Magnetophoretic velocities (ymag) of magnetic particles (7.9 μm diameter) induced by the Halbach array in a microfluidic device were significantly higher and extended over a larger area than those induced by the alternating magnet array (ymag = 178 versus 0 μm/s at 10 mm, respectively). When applied to 50 ml tubes (˜30 mm diameter), the Halbach array removed >95% of Staphylococcus aureus bacterial cells bound with 1 μm magnetic particles compared to ˜70% removed using the alternating array. In addition, the Halbach array enabled manipulation of 1 μm magnetic beads in a deep 96-well plate for ELISA applications, which was not possible with the conventional magnet arrays. Our analysis demonstrates the utility of the Halbach array for the future design of devices for high-throughput magnetic separations of cells, molecules, and toxins.

Airborne or Fomite Transmission for Norovirus? A Case Study Revisited.

PubMed

Xiao, Shenglan; Tang, Julian W; Li, Yuguo

2017-12-14

Norovirus infection, a highly prevalent condition associated with a high rate of morbidity, comprises a significant health issue. Although norovirus transmission mainly occurs via the fecal-oral and vomit-oral routes, airborne transmission has been proposed in recent decades. This paper re-examines a previously described norovirus outbreak in a hotel restaurant wherein airborne transmission was originally inferred. Specifically, the original evidence that suggested airborne transmission was re-analyzed by exploring an alternative hypothesis: could this outbreak instead have occurred via fomite transmission? This re-analysis was based on whether fomite transmission could have yielded similar attack rate distribution patterns. Seven representative serving pathways used by waiters were considered, and the infection risk distributions of the alternative fomite transmission routes were predicted using a multi-agent model. These distributions were compared to the reported attack rate distribution in the original study using a least square methods approach. The results show that with some reasonable assumptions of human behavior patterns and parameter values, the attack rate distribution corresponded well with that of the infection risk via the fomite route. This finding offers an alternative interpretation of the transmission routes that underlay this particular norovirus outbreak and an important consideration in the development of infection control guidelines and the investigation of similar norovirus outbreaks in future.

A Resource for Eliciting Student Alternative Conceptions: Examining the Adaptability of a Concept Inventory for Natural Selection at the Secondary School Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucero, Margaret M.; Petrosino, Anthony J.

2017-08-01

The Conceptual Inventory of Natural Selection (CINS) is an example of a research-based instrument that assesses conceptual understanding in an area that contains well-documented alternative conceptions. Much of the CINS's use and original validation has been relegated to undergraduate settings, but the information learned from student responses on the CINS can also potentially be a useful resource for teachers at the secondary level. Because of its structure, the CINS can have a role in eliciting alternative conceptions and induce deeper conceptual understanding by having student ideas leveraged during instruction. In a first step toward this goal, the present study further investigated the CINS's internal properties by having it administered to a group ( n = 339) of students among four different biology teachers at a predominantly Latino, economically disadvantaged high school. In addition, incidences of the concept inventory's use among the teachers' practices were collected for support of its adaptability at the secondary level. Despite the teachers' initial enthusiasm for the CINS's use as an assessment tool in the present study, results from a principal components analysis demonstrate inconsistencies between the original and present validations. Results also reveal how the teachers think CINS items may be revised for future use among secondary student populations.