Structural changes and out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance in the stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xu; Lin, Boqiang

2018-03-01

This paper aims to examine the effects of structural changes on forecasting the realized range-based variance in the stock market. Considering structural changes in variance in the stock market, we develop the HAR-RRV-SC model on the basis of the HAR-RRV model. Subsequently, the HAR-RRV and HAR-RRV-SC models are used to forecast the realized range-based variance of S&P 500 Index. We find that there are many structural changes in variance in the U.S. stock market, and the period after the financial crisis contains more structural change points than the period before the financial crisis. The out-of-sample results show that the HAR-RRV-SC model significantly outperforms the HAR-BV model when they are employed to forecast the 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month realized range-based variances, which means that structural changes can improve out-of-sample prediction of realized range-based variance. The out-of-sample results remain robust across the alternative rolling fixed-window, the alternative threshold value in ICSS algorithm, and the alternative benchmark models. More importantly, we believe that considering structural changes can help improve the out-of-sample performances of most of other existing HAR-RRV-type models in addition to the models used in this paper.

A simulations approach for meta-analysis of genetic association studies based on additive genetic model.

PubMed

John, Majnu; Lencz, Todd; Malhotra, Anil K; Correll, Christoph U; Zhang, Jian-Ping

2018-06-01

Meta-analysis of genetic association studies is being increasingly used to assess phenotypic differences between genotype groups. When the underlying genetic model is assumed to be dominant or recessive, assessing the phenotype differences based on summary statistics, reported for individual studies in a meta-analysis, is a valid strategy. However, when the genetic model is additive, a similar strategy based on summary statistics will lead to biased results. This fact about the additive model is one of the things that we establish in this paper, using simulations. The main goal of this paper is to present an alternate strategy for the additive model based on simulating data for the individual studies. We show that the alternate strategy is far superior to the strategy based on summary statistics.

AAC Camp as an Alternative School-Based Service Delivery Model: A Retrospective Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dodd, Janet L.; Hagge, Darla K.

2014-01-01

School-based speech-language pathologists are obligated to apply evidence-based practice and document progress of their students' response to intervention in compliance with federal law. The purpose of this preliminary study was to explore the effects of an augmentative and alternative communication (AAC)-based intervention provided in a camp…

What Goes Around Comes Around … Or Does It? Disrupting the Cycle of Traditional, Sport-Based Physical Education

PubMed Central

Ennis, Catherine D.

2015-01-01

As typically taught, sport-based, multiactivity approaches to physical education provide students with few opportunities to increase their skill, fitness, or understanding. Alternative curriculum models, such as Sport Education, Teaching Games for Understanding, and Fitness for Life, represent a second generation of models that build on strong statements of democratic, student-centered practice in physical education. In the What Goes Around section of the paper, I discuss the U.S. perspective on the origins of alternative physical education curriculum models introduced in the early and mid-20th century as a response to sport and exercise programs of the times. Today, with the help of physical educators, scholars are conducting research to test new curricular alternatives or prototypes to provide evidence-based support for these models. Yet, the multiactivity, sport-based curriculum continues to dominate in most U.S. physical education classes. I discuss reasons for this dogged persistence and propose reforms to disrupt this pervasive pattern in the future. PMID:25960937

A decision tool for selecting trench cap designs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paige, G.B.; Stone, J.J.; Lane, L.J.

1995-12-31

A computer based prototype decision support system (PDSS) is being developed to assist the risk manager in selecting an appropriate trench cap design for waste disposal sites. The selection of the {open_quote}best{close_quote} design among feasible alternatives requires consideration of multiple and often conflicting objectives. The methodology used in the selection process consists of: selecting and parameterizing decision variables using data, simulation models, or expert opinion; selecting feasible trench cap design alternatives; ordering the decision variables and ranking the design alternatives. The decision model is based on multi-objective decision theory and uses a unique approach to order the decision variables andmore » rank the design alternatives. Trench cap designs are evaluated based on federal regulations, hydrologic performance, cover stability and cost. Four trench cap designs, which were monitored for a four year period at Hill Air Force Base in Utah, are used to demonstrate the application of the PDSS and evaluate the results of the decision model. The results of the PDSS, using both data and simulations, illustrate the relative advantages of each of the cap designs and which cap is the {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} alternative for a given set of criteria and a particular importance order of those decision criteria.« less

Description of alternating-parity bands within the dinuclear-system model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shneidman, T. M.; Adamian, G. G., E-mail: adamian@theor.jinr.ru; Antonenko, N. V.

2016-11-15

A cluster approach is used to describe ground-state-based alternating-parity bands in even–even nuclei and to study the band-termination mechanism. A method is proposed for testing the cluster nature of alternating-parity bands.

Computer-Based Resource Accounting Model for Generating Aggregate Resource Impacts of Alternative Automobile Technologies : Volume 1. Fleet Attributes Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-01-01

Auto production and operation consume energy, material, capital and labor resources. Numerous substitution possibilities exist within and between resource sectors, corresponding to the broad spectrum of potential design technologies. Alternative auto...

Alternatives for Revitalizing Student Services Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deegan, William L.

1984-01-01

Reviews alternatives for revitalizing the programs and management of community college student services. As program development models, considers Miami-Dade Community College's computer-based instructional management system; entrepreneurial fee-based services; and divestment of situational or special-interest services to student groups. In…

An index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management in a changing climate.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonjoo; Chung, Eun-Sung

2014-03-01

This study developed an index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management dealing with water quantity and quality issues in a changing climate. It consists of two parts of management alternative development and analysis. The first part for alternative development consists of six steps: 1) to understand the watershed components and process using HSPF model, 2) to identify the spatial vulnerability ranking using two indices: potential streamflow depletion (PSD) and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD), 3) to quantify the residents' preferences on water management demands and calculate the watershed evaluation index which is the weighted combinations of PSD and PWQD, 4) to set the quantitative targets for water quantity and quality, 5) to develop a list of feasible alternatives and 6) to eliminate the unacceptable alternatives. The second part for alternative analysis has three steps: 7) to analyze all selected alternatives with a hydrologic simulation model considering various climate change scenarios, 8) to quantify the alternative evaluation index including social and hydrologic criteria with utilizing multi-criteria decision analysis methods and 9) to prioritize all options based on a minimax regret strategy for robust decision. This framework considers the uncertainty inherent in climate models and climate change scenarios with utilizing the minimax regret strategy, a decision making strategy under deep uncertainty and thus this procedure derives the robust prioritization based on the multiple utilities of alternatives from various scenarios. In this study, the proposed procedure was applied to the Korean urban watershed, which has suffered from streamflow depletion and water quality deterioration. Our application shows that the framework provides a useful watershed management tool for incorporating quantitative and qualitative information into the evaluation of various policies with regard to water resource planning and management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The future for follow-up of gynaecological cancer in Europe. Summary of available data and overview of ongoing trials.

PubMed

Leeson, S C; Beaver, K; Ezendam, N P M; Mačuks, R; Martin-Hirsch, P L; Miles, T; Jeppesen, M M; Jensen, P T; Zola, P

2017-03-01

After completing treatment, most patients follow a pre-determined schedule of regular hospital outpatient appointments, which includes clinical examinations, consultations and routine tests. After several years of surveillance, patients are transferred back to primary care. However, there is limited evidence to support the effectiveness and efficiency of this approach. This paper examines the current rationale and evidence base for hospital-based follow-up after treatment for gynaecological cancer. We investigate what alternative models of care have been formally evaluated and what research is currently in progress in Europe, in order to make tentative recommendations for a model of follow-up. The evidence base for traditional hospital based follow-up is limited. Alternative models have been reported for other cancer types but there are few evaluations of alternative approaches for gynaecological cancers. We identified five ongoing European studies; four were focused on endometrial cancer patients and one feasibility study included all gynaecological cancers. Only one study had reached the reporting stage. Alternative models included nurse-led telephone follow-up and comparisons of more intensive versus less intensive regimes. Outcomes included survival, quality of life, psychological morbidity, patient satisfaction and cost effectiveness of service. More work is needed on alternative strategies for all gynaecological cancer types. New models will be likely to include risk stratification with early discharge from secondary care for early stage disease with fast track access to specialist services for suspected cancer recurrence or other problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Provision of hearing aids to children in Bangladesh: costs and cost-effectiveness of a community-based and a centre-based approach.

PubMed

Ekman, Björn; Borg, Johan

2017-08-01

The aim of this study is to provide evidence on the costs and health effects of two alternative hearing aid delivery models, a community-based and a centre-based approach. The study is set in Bangladesh and the study population is children between 12 and 18 years old. Data on resource use by participants and their caregivers were collected by a household survey. Follow-up data were collected after two months. Data on the costs to providers of the two approaches were collected by means of key informant interviews. The total cost per participant in the community-based model was BDT 6,333 (USD 79) compared with BDT 13,718 (USD 172) for the centre-based model. Both delivery models are found to be cost-effective with an estimated cost per DALY averted of BDT 17,611 (USD 220) for the community-based model and BDT 36,775 (USD 460) for the centre-based model. Using a community-based approach to deliver hearing aids to children in a resource constrained environment is a cost-effective alternative to the traditional centre-based approach. Further evidence is needed to draw conclusions for scale-up of approaches; rigorous analysis is possible using well-prepared data collection tools and working closely with sector professionals. Implications for Rehabilitation Delivery models vary by resources needed for their implementation. Community-based deliver models of hearing aids to children in low-income countries are a cost-effective alternative. The assessment of costs and effects of hearing aids delivery models in low-income countries is possible through planned collaboration between researchers and sector professionals.

Alternative Instructional Design Paradigms: What's Worth Discussing and What Isn't.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willis, Jerry

1998-01-01

Examines the paradigm debate over established (behavioral and cognitive) and alternative (constructivist) models of instructional design (ID). Discusses instructional strategies and principles, new terms versus new meaning, "straw man" and personalized arguments, expert-determined goals, research-based versus "brand-X" models,…

A comparative human health risk assessment of p-dichlorobenzene-based toilet rimblock products versus fragrance/surfactant-based alternatives.

PubMed

Aronson, Dallas B; Bosch, Stephen; Gray, D Anthony; Howard, Philip H; Guiney, Patrick D

2007-10-01

A comparison of the human health risk to consumers using one of two types of toilet rimblock products, either a p-dichlorobenzene-based rimblock or two newer fragrance/surfactant-based alternatives, was conducted. Rimblock products are designed for global use by consumers worldwide and function by releasing volatile compounds into indoor air with subsequent exposure presumed to be mainly by inhalation of indoor air. Using the THERdbASE exposure model and experimentally determined emission data, indoor air concentrations and daily intake values were determined for both types of rimblock products. Modeled exposure concentrations from a representative p-dichlorobenzene rimblock product are an order of magnitude higher than those from the alternative rimblock products due to its nearly pure composition and high sublimation rate. Lifetime exposure to p-dichlorobenzene or the subset of fragrance components with available RfD values is not expected to lead to non-cancer-based adverse health effects based on the exposure concentrations estimated using the THERdbASE model. A similar comparison of cancer-based effects was not possible as insufficient data were available for the fragrance components.

Alternative Models of Entrance Exams and Access to Higher Education: The Case of the Czech Republic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Konecny, Tomas; Basl, Josef; Myslivecek, Jan; Simonova, Natalie

2012-01-01

The study compares the potential effects of a university admission exam model based on program-specific knowledge and an alternative model relying on general study aptitude (GSA) in the context of a strongly stratified educational system with considerable excess of demand over supply of university education. Using results of the "Sonda…

Considerations of the Impact of Neoliberalism and Alternative Regimes on Learning and Its Outcomes: An Empirical Example Based on the Level and Distribution of Adult Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Desjardins, Richard

2013-01-01

This study considers the extensive critique of the impact of the "market" or "neoliberal" model on learning and its outcomes in the light of alternative models. The purpose is to consider the potential impacts of the market on learning and its outcomes and to contextualise critique by considering alternative coordination…

Providing Alternatives to Nursing Home Care: An Interorganizational Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, Carol D.

The development of alternatives to institutionally based long-term care requires the creation of greater interdependence among community based agencies and the provision of appropriate interdependence as the foundation for coordinated service delivery. Theoretical models of interorganizational interdependence are examined and assessed for their…

Society of Gynecologic Oncology Future of Physician Payment Reform Task Force report: The Endometrial Cancer Alternative Payment Model (ECAP).

PubMed

Ko, Emily M; Havrilesky, Laura J; Alvarez, Ronald D; Zivanovic, Oliver; Boyd, Leslie R; Jewell, Elizabeth L; Timmins, Patrick F; Gibb, Randall S; Jhingran, Anuja; Cohn, David E; Dowdy, Sean C; Powell, Matthew A; Chalas, Eva; Huang, Yongmei; Rathbun, Jill; Wright, Jason D

2018-05-01

Health care in the United States is in the midst of a significant transformation from a "fee for service" to a "fee for value" based model. The Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015 has only accelerated this transition. Anticipating these reforms, the Society of Gynecologic Oncology developed the Future of Physician Payment Reform Task Force (PPRTF) in 2015 to develop strategies to ensure fair value based reimbursement policies for gynecologic cancer care. The PPRTF elected as a first task to develop an Alternative Payment Model for thesurgical management of low risk endometrial cancer. The history, rationale, and conceptual framework for the development of an Endometrial Cancer Alternative Payment Model are described in this white paper, as well as directions forfuture efforts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Achieving Student Success in a Regional Public Alternative School Setting through a Consequence-Based Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burkholder, Sue M.; Merritt, Marti

2007-01-01

Genesis Alternative School is a regional, public alternative school setting for middle and high school students from four participating school divisions. It serves 1 rural county school division and 3 small city school divisions. Students are placed at Genesis for disciplinary reasons. Genesis is unique among alternative schools in Virginia…

Value-Based Payment Reform and the Medicare Access and Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2015: A Primer for Plastic Surgeons.

PubMed

Squitieri, Lee; Chung, Kevin C

2017-07-01

In 2015, the U.S. Congress passed the Medicare Access and Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act, which effectively repealed the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services sustainable growth rate formula and established the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Quality Payment Program. The Medicare Access and Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act represents an unparalleled acceleration toward value-based payment models and a departure from traditional volume-driven fee-for-service reimbursement. The Quality Payment Program includes two paths for provider participation: the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Advanced Alternative Payment Models. The Merit-Based Incentive Payment System pathway replaces existing quality reporting programs and adds several new measures to create a composite performance score for each provider (or provider group) that will be used to adjust reimbursed payment. The advanced alternative payment model pathway is available to providers who participate in qualifying Advanced Alternative Payment Models and is associated with an initial 5 percent payment incentive. The first performance period for the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System opens January 1, 2017, and closes on December 31, 2017, and is associated with payment adjustments in January of 2019. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimates that the majority of providers will begin participation in 2017 through the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System pathway, but aims to have 50 percent of payments tied to quality or value through Advanced Alternative Payment Models by 2018. In this article, the authors describe key components of the Medicare Access and Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act to providers navigating through the Quality Payment Program and discuss how plastic surgeons may optimize their performance in this new value-based payment program.

Redesigning Supervision: Alternative Models for Student Teaching and Field Experiences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodgers, Adrian; Jenkins, Deborah Bainer

2010-01-01

In "Redesigning Supervision", active professionals in teacher education and professional development share research-based, alternative models for restructuring the way pre-service teachers are supervised. The authors examine the methods currently used and discuss how teacher educators have striven to change or renew these procedures. They then…

Learning to Teach: Pedagogical Content Knowledge in Adventure-Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutherland, Sue; Stuhr, Paul T.; Ayvazo, Shiri

2016-01-01

Background: Many alternative curricular models exist in physical education to better meet the needs of students than the multi-activity team sports curriculum that dominates in the USA. These alternative curricular models typically require different content knowledge (CK) and pedagogical CK (PCK) to implement successfully. One of the complexities…

Spatial perspectives in state-and-transition models: A missing link to land management?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Conceptual models of alternative states and thresholds are based largely on observations of ecosystem processes at a few points in space. Because the distribution of alternative states in spatially-structured ecosystems is the result of variations in pattern-process interactions at different scales,...

A framework for an alternatives assessment dashboard for evaluating chemical alternatives applied to flame retardants for electronic applications.

PubMed

Martin, Todd M

2017-05-01

The goal of alternatives assessment (AA) is to facilitate a comparison of alternatives to a chemical of concern, resulting in the identification of safer alternatives. A two stage methodology for comparing chemical alternatives was developed. In the first stage, alternatives are compared using a variety of human health effects, ecotoxicity, and physicochemical properties. Hazard profiles are completed using a variety of online sources and quantitative structure activity relationship models. In the second stage, alternatives are evaluated utilizing an exposure/risk assessment over the entire life cycle. Exposure values are calculated using screening-level near-field and far-field exposure models. The second stage allows one to more accurately compare potential exposure to each alternative and consider additional factors that may not be obvious from separate binned persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity scores. The methodology was utilized to compare phosphate-based alternatives for decabromodiphenyl ether (decaBDE) in electronics applications.

PACER Model: Skills and Personal Characteristics of Alternative Elementary Free School and Open School Teachers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wardle, Francis

This essay outlines the skills and qualities that an alternative, open, elementary school teacher should possess. These criteria are based on the PACER model of 30 students, age 4 to 12, learning in an ungraded, unstructured environment. (The PACER model adheres to the idea that all experiences and all learning situations are of equal importance.)…

Rank-preserving regression: a more robust rank regression model against outliers.

PubMed

Chen, Tian; Kowalski, Jeanne; Chen, Rui; Wu, Pan; Zhang, Hui; Feng, Changyong; Tu, Xin M

2016-08-30

Mean-based semi-parametric regression models such as the popular generalized estimating equations are widely used to improve robustness of inference over parametric models. Unfortunately, such models are quite sensitive to outlying observations. The Wilcoxon-score-based rank regression (RR) provides more robust estimates over generalized estimating equations against outliers. However, the RR and its extensions do not sufficiently address missing data arising in longitudinal studies. In this paper, we propose a new approach to address outliers under a different framework based on the functional response models. This functional-response-model-based alternative not only addresses limitations of the RR and its extensions for longitudinal data, but, with its rank-preserving property, even provides more robust estimates than these alternatives. The proposed approach is illustrated with both real and simulated data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessment of Alternative Conceptual Models Using Reactive Transport Modeling with Monitoring Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Z.; Price, V.; Heffner, D.; Hodges, R.; Temples, T.; Nicholson, T.

2005-12-01

Monitoring data proved very useful in evaluating alternative conceptual models, simulating contaminant transport behavior, and reducing uncertainty. A graded approach using three alternative conceptual site models was formulated to simulate a field case of tetrachloroethene (PCE) transport and biodegradation. These models ranged from simple to complex in their representation of subsurface heterogeneities. The simplest model was a single-layer homogeneous aquifer that employed an analytical reactive transport code, BIOCHLOR (Aziz et al., 1999). Due to over-simplification of the aquifer structure, this simulation could not reproduce the monitoring data. The second model consisted of a multi-layer conceptual model, in combination with numerical modules, MODFLOW and RT3D within GMS, to simulate flow and reactive transport. Although the simulation results from the second model were comparatively better than those from the simple model, they still did not adequately reproduce the monitoring well concentrations because the geological structures were still inadequately defined. Finally, a more realistic conceptual model was formulated that incorporated heterogeneities and geologic structures identified from well logs and seismic survey data using the Petra and PetraSeis software. This conceptual model included both a major channel and a younger channel that were detected in the PCE source area. In this model, these channels control the local ground-water flow direction and provide a preferential chemical transport pathway. Simulation results using this conceptual site model proved compatible with the monitoring concentration data. This study demonstrates that the bias and uncertainty from inadequate conceptual models are much larger than those introduced from an inadequate choice of model parameter values (Neuman and Wierenga, 2003; Meyer et al., 2004; Ye et al., 2004). This case study integrated conceptual and numerical models, based on interpreted local hydrogeologic and geochemical data, with detailed monitoring plume data. It provided key insights for confirming alternative conceptual site models and assessing the performance of monitoring networks. A monitoring strategy based on this graded approach for assessing alternative conceptual models can provide the technical bases for identifying critical monitoring locations, adequate monitoring frequency, and performance indicator parameters for performance monitoring involving ground-water levels and PCE concentrations.

An ``Alternating-Curvature'' Model for the Nanometer-scale Structure of the Nafion Ionomer, Based on Backbone Properties Detected by NMR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt-Rohr, Klaus; Chen, Q.

2006-03-01

The perfluorinated ionomer, Nafion, which consists of a (-CF2-)n backbone and charged side branches, is useful as a proton exchange membrane in H2/O2 fuel cells. A modified model of the nanometer-scale structure of hydrated Nafion will be presented. It features hydrated ionic clusters familiar from some previous models, but is based most prominently on pronounced backbone rigidity between branch points and limited orientational correlation of local chain axes. These features have been revealed by solid-state NMR measurements, which take advantage of fast rotations of the backbones around their local axes. The resulting alternating curvature of the backbones towards the hydrated clusters also better satisfies the requirement of dense space filling in solids. Simulations based on this ``alternating curvature'' model reproduce orientational correlation data from NMR, as well as scattering features such as the ionomer peak and the I(q) ˜ 1/q power law at small q values, which can be attributed to modulated cylinders resulting from the chain stiffness. The shortcomings of previous models, including Gierke's cluster model and more recent lamellar or bundle models, in matching all requirements imposed by the experimental data will be discussed.

Model-based confirmation of alternative substrates of mitochondrial electron transport chain.

PubMed

Kleessen, Sabrina; Araújo, Wagner L; Fernie, Alisdair R; Nikoloski, Zoran

2012-03-30

Discrimination of metabolic models based on high throughput metabolomics data, reflecting various internal and external perturbations, is essential for identifying the components that contribute to the emerging behavior of metabolic processes. Here, we investigate 12 different models of the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC) in Arabidopsis thaliana during dark-induced senescence in order to elucidate the alternative substrates to this metabolic pathway. Our findings demonstrate that the coupling of the proposed computational approach, based on dynamic flux balance analysis, with time-resolved metabolomics data results in model-based confirmations of the hypotheses that, during dark-induced senescence in Arabidopsis, (i) under conditions where the main substrate for the ETC are not fully available, isovaleryl-CoA dehydrogenase and 2-hydroxyglutarate dehydrogenase are able to donate electrons to the ETC, (ii) phytanoyl-CoA does not act even as an indirect substrate of the electron transfer flavoprotein/electron-transfer flavoprotein:ubiquinone oxidoreductase complex, and (iii) the mitochondrial γ-aminobutyric acid transporter has functional significance in maintaining mitochondrial metabolism. Our study provides a basic framework for future in silico studies of alternative pathways in mitochondrial metabolism under extended darkness whereby the role of its components can be computationally discriminated based on available molecular profile data.

Multilevel Modeling of Social Segregation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leckie, George; Pillinger, Rebecca; Jones, Kelvyn; Goldstein, Harvey

2012-01-01

The traditional approach to measuring segregation is based upon descriptive, non-model-based indices. A recently proposed alternative is multilevel modeling. The authors further develop the argument for a multilevel modeling approach by first describing and expanding upon its notable advantages, which include an ability to model segregation at a…

On the Relation between Phonotactic Learning and Alternation Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chong, Junxiang Adam

2017-01-01

This dissertation examines the question of how phonological alternations are learnt. In constraint-based models of phonological learning, it is hypothesized that prior learning of phonotactics from the lexicon facilitates the learning of alternations. While this is an influential assumption, the empirical evidence for it is equivocal. In this…

77 FR 4638 - Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement; Performance-Based Payments (DFARS Case 2011-D045)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-30

... tool. The PBP analysis tool is a cash-flow model for evaluating alternative financing arrangements, and... PBP analysis tool is a cash-flow model for evaluating alternative financing arrangements, and is... that reflects adequate consideration to the Government for the improved contractor cash flow...

Ignorance- versus evidence-based decision making: a decision time analysis of the recognition heuristic.

PubMed

Hilbig, Benjamin E; Pohl, Rüdiger F

2009-09-01

According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments-and its duration-is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of evidence speaking for each of the objects and that decision times thus depend on the evidential difference between objects, or the degree of conflict between options. This article presents 3 experiments that tested predictions derived from the RH against those from alternative models. All experiments used naturally recognized objects without teaching participants any information and thus provided optimal conditions for application of the RH. However, results supported the alternative, evidence-based models and often conflicted with the RH. Recognition was not the key determinant of decision times, whereas differences between objects with respect to (both positive and negative) evidence predicted effects well. In sum, alternative models that allow for the integration of different pieces of information may well provide a better account of comparative judgments. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

On Nonequivalence of Several Procedures of Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Chan, Wai

2005-01-01

The normal theory based maximum likelihood procedure is widely used in structural equation modeling. Three alternatives are: the normal theory based generalized least squares, the normal theory based iteratively reweighted least squares, and the asymptotically distribution-free procedure. When data are normally distributed and the model structure…

Visual Reconciliation of Alternative Similarity Spaces in Climate Modeling.

PubMed

Poco, Jorge; Dasgupta, Aritra; Wei, Yaxing; Hargrove, William; Schwalm, Christopher R; Huntzinger, Deborah N; Cook, Robert; Bertini, Enrico; Silva, Claudio T

2014-12-01

Visual data analysis often requires grouping of data objects based on their similarity. In many application domains researchers use algorithms and techniques like clustering and multidimensional scaling to extract groupings from data. While extracting these groups using a single similarity criteria is relatively straightforward, comparing alternative criteria poses additional challenges. In this paper we define visual reconciliation as the problem of reconciling multiple alternative similarity spaces through visualization and interaction. We derive this problem from our work on model comparison in climate science where climate modelers are faced with the challenge of making sense of alternative ways to describe their models: one through the output they generate, another through the large set of properties that describe them. Ideally, they want to understand whether groups of models with similar spatio-temporal behaviors share similar sets of criteria or, conversely, whether similar criteria lead to similar behaviors. We propose a visual analytics solution based on linked views, that addresses this problem by allowing the user to dynamically create, modify and observe the interaction among groupings, thereby making the potential explanations apparent. We present case studies that demonstrate the usefulness of our technique in the area of climate science.

Medicare Program; Merit-Based Incentive Payment System (MIPS) and Alternative Payment Model (APM) Incentive Under the Physician Fee Schedule, and Criteria for Physician-Focused Payment Models. Final rule with comment period.

PubMed

2016-11-04

The Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015 (MACRA) repeals the Medicare sustainable growth rate (SGR) methodology for updates to the physician fee schedule (PFS) and replaces it with a new approach to payment called the Quality Payment Program that rewards the delivery of high-quality patient care through two avenues: Advanced Alternative Payment Models (Advanced APMs) and the Merit-based Incentive Payment System (MIPS) for eligible clinicians or groups under the PFS. This final rule with comment period establishes incentives for participation in certain alternative payment models (APMs) and includes the criteria for use by the Physician-Focused Payment Model Technical Advisory Committee (PTAC) in making comments and recommendations on physician-focused payment models (PFPMs). Alternative Payment Models are payment approaches, developed in partnership with the clinician community, that provide added incentives to deliver high-quality and cost-efficient care. APMs can apply to a specific clinical condition, a care episode, or a population. This final rule with comment period also establishes the MIPS, a new program for certain Medicare-enrolled practitioners. MIPS will consolidate components of three existing programs, the Physician Quality Reporting System (PQRS), the Physician Value-based Payment Modifier (VM), and the Medicare Electronic Health Record (EHR) Incentive Program for Eligible Professionals (EPs), and will continue the focus on quality, cost, and use of certified EHR technology (CEHRT) in a cohesive program that avoids redundancies. In this final rule with comment period we have rebranded key terminology based on feedback from stakeholders, with the goal of selecting terms that will be more easily identified and understood by our stakeholders.

Arrest procedures for driving while intoxicated

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-08-01

Model arrest procedures were developed to enhance the enforcement of laws against driving while intoxicated (DWI). Development was based on answers obtained to the following questions: what procedural alternatives are now possible; how do alternative...

Augmentative and Alternative Communication and Language: Evidence-Based Practice and Language Activity Monitoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Katya

2004-01-01

The goal of augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) is the most effective communication possible. Speech-language pathologists are obligated to collect data, measure communication, and apply the principles of evidence-based practice (EBP). This article presents a model for EBP that represents how collecting and evaluating performance data…

Peplau's Theory of Interpersonal Relations: An Alternate Factor Structure for Patient Experience Data?

PubMed

Hagerty, Thomas A; Samuels, William; Norcini-Pala, Andrea; Gigliotti, Eileen

2017-04-01

A confirmatory factor analysis of data from the responses of 12,436 patients to 16 items on the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems-Hospital survey was used to test a latent factor structure based on Peplau's middle-range theory of interpersonal relations. A two-factor model based on Peplau's theory fit these data well, whereas a three-factor model also based on Peplau's theory fit them excellently and provided a suitable alternate factor structure for the data. Though neither the two- nor three-factor model fit as well as the original factor structure, these results support using Peplau's theory to demonstrate nursing's extensive contribution to the experiences of hospitalized patients.

Characterizing Particulate Matter Exfiltration Estimates for Alternative Cookstoves in a Village-Like Household in Rural Nepal.

PubMed

Soneja, Sutyajeet I; Tielsch, James M; Khatry, Subarna K; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Curriero, Frank C; Breysse, Patrick N

2017-11-01

Alternative stoves are an intervention option to reduce household air pollution. The amount of air pollution exiting homes when alternative stoves are utilized is not known. In this paper, particulate matter exfiltration estimates are presented for four types of alternative stoves within a village-like home, which was built to reflect the use of local materials and common size, in rural Nepal. Four alternative stoves with chimneys were examined, which included an alternative mud brick stove, original Envirofit G3355 model, manufacture altered Envirofit G3355, and locally altered Envirofit G3355. Multiple linear regression was utilized to determine estimates of PM2.5 exfiltration. Overall exfiltration fraction average (converted to a percent) for the four stoves were: alternative mud brick stove with chimney 56%, original Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 87%, manufacture altered Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 69%, and locally altered Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 69%. Alternative cookstoves resulted in higher overall average exfiltration due to direct and indirect ventilation relative to traditional, mud-based stoves. This contrast emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the climate and health implications that are believed to come from implementing alternative stoves on a large scale and the resultant shift of exposure burden from indoors to outdoors.

Characterizing Particulate Matter Exfiltration Estimates for Alternative Cookstoves in a Village-Like Household in Rural Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soneja, Sutyajeet I.; Tielsch, James M.; Khatry, Subarna K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Curriero, Frank C.; Breysse, Patrick N.

2017-11-01

Alternative stoves are an intervention option to reduce household air pollution. The amount of air pollution exiting homes when alternative stoves are utilized is not known. In this paper, particulate matter exfiltration estimates are presented for four types of alternative stoves within a village-like home, which was built to reflect the use of local materials and common size, in rural Nepal. Four alternative stoves with chimneys were examined, which included an alternative mud brick stove, original Envirofit G3355 model, manufacture altered Envirofit G3355, and locally altered Envirofit G3355. Multiple linear regression was utilized to determine estimates of PM2.5 exfiltration. Overall exfiltration fraction average (converted to a percent) for the four stoves were: alternative mud brick stove with chimney 56%, original Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 87%, manufacture altered Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 69%, and locally altered Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 69%. Alternative cookstoves resulted in higher overall average exfiltration due to direct and indirect ventilation relative to traditional, mud-based stoves. This contrast emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the climate and health implications that are believed to come from implementing alternative stoves on a large scale and the resultant shift of exposure burden from indoors to outdoors.

Modeling Of In-Vehicle Human Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaozhen; Frey, H. Christopher

2012-01-01

A method for estimating in-vehicle PM2.5 exposure as part of a scenario-based population simulation model is developed and assessed. In existing models, such as the Stochastic Exposure and Dose Simulation model for Particulate Matter (SHEDS-PM), in-vehicle exposure is estimated using linear regression based on area-wide ambient PM2.5 concentration. An alternative modeling approach is explored based on estimation of near-road PM2.5 concentration and an in-vehicle mass balance. Near-road PM2.5 concentration is estimated using a dispersion model and fixed site monitor (FSM) data. In-vehicle concentration is estimated based on air exchange rate and filter efficiency. In-vehicle concentration varies with road type, traffic flow, windspeed, stability class, and ventilation. Average in-vehicle exposure is estimated to contribute 10 to 20 percent of average daily exposure. The contribution of in-vehicle exposure to total daily exposure can be higher for some individuals. Recommendations are made for updating exposure models and implementation of the alternative approach. PMID:23101000

Courses of action for effects based operations using evolutionary algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haider, Sajjad; Levis, Alexander H.

2006-05-01

This paper presents an Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) based approach to identify effective courses of action (COAs) in Effects Based Operations. The approach uses Timed Influence Nets (TINs) as the underlying mathematical model to capture a dynamic uncertain situation. TINs provide a concise graph-theoretic probabilistic approach to specify the cause and effect relationships that exist among the variables of interest (actions, desired effects, and other uncertain events) in a problem domain. The purpose of building these TIN models is to identify and analyze several alternative courses of action. The current practice is to use trial and error based techniques which are not only labor intensive but also produce sub-optimal results and are not capable of modeling constraints among actionable events. The EA based approach presented in this paper is aimed to overcome these limitations. The approach generates multiple COAs that are close enough in terms of achieving the desired effect. The purpose of generating multiple COAs is to give several alternatives to a decision maker. Moreover, the alternate COAs could be generalized based on the relationships that exist among the actions and their execution timings. The approach also allows a system analyst to capture certain types of constraints among actionable events.

Right-Sizing Statistical Models for Longitudinal Data

PubMed Central

Wood, Phillip K.; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M.

2015-01-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to “right-size” the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting overly parsimonious models to more complex better fitting alternatives, and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically under-identified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A three-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation/covariation patterns. The orthogonal, free-curve slope-intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered as a general model which includes, as special cases, many models including the Factor Mean model (FM, McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), Repeated Measures MANOVA, and the Linear Slope Intercept (LinearSI) Growth Model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparison of several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. PMID:26237507

Right-sizing statistical models for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Wood, Phillip K; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M

2015-12-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to "right-size" the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting, overly parsimonious models to more complex, better-fitting alternatives and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically underidentified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A 3-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation-covariation patterns. The orthogonal free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered a general model that includes, as special cases, many models, including the factor mean (FM) model (McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, hierarchical linear models (HLMs), repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), and the linear slope intercept (linearSI) growth model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparing several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Uncertainty and the Conceptual Site Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, V.; Nicholson, T. J.

2007-12-01

Our focus is on uncertainties in the underlying conceptual framework upon which all subsequent steps in numerical and/or analytical modeling efforts depend. Experienced environmental modelers recognize the value of selecting an optimal conceptual model from several competing site models, but usually do not formally explore possible alternative models, in part due to incomplete or missing site data, as well as relevant regional data for establishing boundary conditions. The value in and approach for developing alternative conceptual site models (CSM) is demonstrated by analysis of case histories. These studies are based on reported flow or transport modeling in which alternative site models are formulated using data that were not available to, or not used by, the original modelers. An important concept inherent to model abstraction of these alternative conceptual models is that it is "Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than the exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise." (Tukey, 1962) The case histories discussed here illustrate the value of formulating alternative models and evaluating them using site-specific data: (1) Charleston Naval Site where seismic characterization data allowed significant revision of the CSM and subsequent contaminant transport modeling; (2) Hanford 300-Area where surface- and ground-water interactions affecting the unsaturated zone suggested an alternative component to the site model; (3) Savannah River C-Area where a characterization report for a waste site within the modeled area was not available to the modelers, but provided significant new information requiring changes to the underlying geologic and hydrogeologic CSM's used; (4) Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) where re-interpretation of resistivity sounding data and water-level data suggested an alternative geologic model. Simple 2-D spreadsheet modeling of the ADRS with the revised CSM provided an improved match to vapor-phase tritium migration. Site-specific monitoring coupled to these alternative CSM's greatly assists in conducting uncertainty assessments. (Work supported by USNRC contract NRC-04-03-061.)

Constructing Alternate Assessment Cohorts: An Oregon Perspective. Research Brief 3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saven, Jessica L.; Farley, Dan; Tindal, Gerald

2013-01-01

Longitudinally modeling the growth of students with significant cognitive disabilities (SWSCDs) on alternate assessments based on alternate achievement standards (AA-AAS) presents many challenges for states. The number of students in Grades 3-8 who remain in a cohort group varies over time, depending on the methods used to construct the…

A framework for an alternatives assessment dashboard for evaluating chemical alternatives applied to flame retardants for electronic applications

PubMed Central

Martin, Todd M.

2017-01-01

The goal of alternatives assessment (AA) is to facilitate a comparison of alternatives to a chemical of concern, resulting in the identification of safer alternatives. A two stage methodology for comparing chemical alternatives was developed. In the first stage, alternatives are compared using a variety of human health effects, ecotoxicity, and physicochemical properties. Hazard profiles are completed using a variety of online sources and quantitative structure activity relationship models. In the second stage, alternatives are evaluated utilizing an exposure/risk assessment over the entire life cycle. Exposure values are calculated using screening-level near-field and far-field exposure models. The second stage allows one to more accurately compare potential exposure to each alternative and consider additional factors that may not be obvious from separate binned persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity scores. The methodology was utilized to compare phosphate-based alternatives for decabromodiphenyl ether (decaBDE) in electronics applications. PMID:29333139

Simulation, Model Verification and Controls Development of Brayton Cycle PM Alternator: Testing and Simulation of 2 KW PM Generator with Diode Bridge Output

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stankovic, Ana V.

2003-01-01

Professor Stankovic will be developing and refining Simulink based models of the PM alternator and comparing the simulation results with experimental measurements taken from the unit. Her first task is to validate the models using the experimental data. Her next task is to develop alternative control techniques for the application of the Brayton Cycle PM Alternator in a nuclear electric propulsion vehicle. The control techniques will be first simulated using the validated models then tried experimentally with hardware available at NASA. Testing and simulation of a 2KW PM synchronous generator with diode bridge output is described. The parameters of a synchronous PM generator have been measured and used in simulation. Test procedures have been developed to verify the PM generator model with diode bridge output. Experimental and simulation results are in excellent agreement.

Alternatives to In Vivo Draize Rabbit Eye and Skin Irritation Tests with a Focus on 3D Reconstructed Human Cornea-Like Epithelium and Epidermis Models

PubMed Central

Lee, Miri; Hwang, Jee-Hyun; Lim, Kyung-Min

2017-01-01

Human eyes and skin are frequently exposed to chemicals accidentally or on purpose due to their external location. Therefore, chemicals are required to undergo the evaluation of the ocular and dermal irritancy for their safe handling and use before release into the market. Draize rabbit eye and skin irritation test developed in 1944, has been a gold standard test which was enlisted as OECD TG 404 and OECD TG 405 but it has been criticized with respect to animal welfare due to invasive and cruel procedure. To replace it, diverse alternatives have been developed: (i) For Draize eye irritation test, organotypic assay, in vitro cytotoxicity-based method, in chemico tests, in silico prediction model, and 3D reconstructed human cornea-like epithelium (RhCE); (ii) For Draize skin irritation test, in vitro cytotoxicity-based cell model, and 3D reconstructed human epidermis models (RhE). Of these, RhCE and RhE models are getting spotlight as a promising alternative with a wide applicability domain covering cosmetics and personal care products. In this review, we overviewed the current alternatives to Draize test with a focus on 3D human epithelium models to provide an insight into advancing and widening their utility. PMID:28744350

Material and energy recovery in integrated waste management systems: a life-cycle costing approach.

PubMed

Massarutto, Antonio; de Carli, Alessandro; Graffi, Matteo

2011-01-01

A critical assumption of studies assessing comparatively waste management options concerns the constant average cost for selective collection regardless the source separation level (SSL) reached, and the neglect of the mass constraint. The present study compares alternative waste management scenarios through the development of a desktop model that tries to remove the above assumption. Several alternative scenarios based on different combinations of energy and materials recovery are applied to two imaginary areas modelled in order to represent a typical Northern Italian setting. External costs and benefits implied by scenarios are also considered. Scenarios are compared on the base of the full cost for treating the total waste generated in the area. The model investigates the factors that influence the relative convenience of alternative scenarios. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sustainable Street Vendors Spatial Zoning Models in Surakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahayu, M. J.; Putri, R. A.; Rini, E. F.

2018-02-01

Various strategies that have been carried out by Surakarta’s government to organize street vendors have not achieved the goal of street vendors’ arrangement comprehensively. The street vendors arrangement strategy consists of physical (spatial) and non-physical. One of the physical arrangements is to define the street vendor’s zoning. Based on the street vendors’ characteristics, there are two alternative locations of stabilization (as one kind of street vendors’ arrangement) that can be used. The aim of this study is to examine those alternative locations to set the street vendor’s zoning models. Quatitative method is used to formulate the spatial zoning model. The street vendor’s zoning models are formulated based on two approaches, which are the distance to their residences and previous trading locations. Geographic information system is used to indicate all street vendors’ residences and trading locations based on their type of goods. Through proximity point distance tool on ArcGIS, we find the closeness of residential location and previous trading location with the alternative location of street vendors’ stabilization. The result shows that the location was chosen by the street vendors to sell their goods mainly consider the proximity to their homes. It also shows street vendor’s zoning models which based on the type of street vendor’s goods.

Development and Validation of Linear Alternator Models for the Advanced Stirling Convertor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metscher, Jonathan F.; Lewandowski, Edward

2014-01-01

Two models of the linear alternator of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) have been developed using the Sage 1-D modeling software package. The first model relates the piston motion to electric current by means of a motor constant. The second uses electromagnetic model components to model the magnetic circuit of the alternator. The models are tuned and validated using test data and compared against each other. Results show both models can be tuned to achieve results within 7% of ASC test data under normal operating conditions. Using Sage enables the creation of a complete ASC model to be developed and simulations completed quickly compared to more complex multi-dimensional models. These models allow for better insight into overall Stirling convertor performance, aid with Stirling power system modeling, and in the future support NASA mission planning for Stirling-based power systems.

Development and Validation of Linear Alternator Models for the Advanced Stirling Convertor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metscher, Jonathan F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

2015-01-01

Two models of the linear alternator of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) have been developed using the Sage 1-D modeling software package. The first model relates the piston motion to electric current by means of a motor constant. The second uses electromagnetic model components to model the magnetic circuit of the alternator. The models are tuned and validated using test data and also compared against each other. Results show both models can be tuned to achieve results within 7 of ASC test data under normal operating conditions. Using Sage enables the creation of a complete ASC model to be developed and simulations completed quickly compared to more complex multi-dimensional models. These models allow for better insight into overall Stirling convertor performance, aid with Stirling power system modeling, and in the future support NASA mission planning for Stirling-based power systems.

Model-based Confirmation of Alternative Substrates of Mitochondrial Electron Transport Chain

PubMed Central

Kleessen, Sabrina; Araújo, Wagner L.; Fernie, Alisdair R.; Nikoloski, Zoran

2012-01-01

Discrimination of metabolic models based on high throughput metabolomics data, reflecting various internal and external perturbations, is essential for identifying the components that contribute to the emerging behavior of metabolic processes. Here, we investigate 12 different models of the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC) in Arabidopsis thaliana during dark-induced senescence in order to elucidate the alternative substrates to this metabolic pathway. Our findings demonstrate that the coupling of the proposed computational approach, based on dynamic flux balance analysis, with time-resolved metabolomics data results in model-based confirmations of the hypotheses that, during dark-induced senescence in Arabidopsis, (i) under conditions where the main substrate for the ETC are not fully available, isovaleryl-CoA dehydrogenase and 2-hydroxyglutarate dehydrogenase are able to donate electrons to the ETC, (ii) phytanoyl-CoA does not act even as an indirect substrate of the electron transfer flavoprotein/electron-transfer flavoprotein:ubiquinone oxidoreductase complex, and (iii) the mitochondrial γ-aminobutyric acid transporter has functional significance in maintaining mitochondrial metabolism. Our study provides a basic framework for future in silico studies of alternative pathways in mitochondrial metabolism under extended darkness whereby the role of its components can be computationally discriminated based on available molecular profile data. PMID:22334689

Simulation-based cutaneous surgical-skill training on a chicken-skin bench model in a medical undergraduate program.

PubMed

Denadai, Rafael; Saad-Hossne, Rogério; Martinhão Souto, Luís Ricardo

2013-05-01

Because of ethical and medico-legal aspects involved in the training of cutaneous surgical skills on living patients, human cadavers and living animals, it is necessary the search for alternative and effective forms of training simulation. To propose and describe an alternative methodology for teaching and learning the principles of cutaneous surgery in a medical undergraduate program by using a chicken-skin bench model. One instructor for every four students, teaching materials on cutaneous surgical skills, chicken trunks, wings, or thighs, a rigid platform support, needled threads, needle holders, surgical blades with scalpel handles, rat-tooth tweezers, scissors, and marking pens were necessary for training simulation. A proposal for simulation-based training on incision, suture, biopsy, and on reconstruction techniques using a chicken-skin bench model distributed in several sessions and with increasing levels of difficultywas structured. Both feedback and objective evaluations always directed to individual students were also outlined. The teaching of a methodology for the principles of cutaneous surgery using a chicken-skin bench model versatile, portable, easy to assemble, and inexpensive is an alternative and complementary option to the armamentarium of methods based on other bench models described.

Alternative Fuel News: Official Publication of the Clean Cities Network and the Alternative Fuels Data Center, Vol. 5, No. 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2001-11-01

A quarterly magazine with articles on alternative fuel school buses, the market growth of biodiesel fuel, National AFV Day 2002, model year 2002 alternative fuel passenger cars and light trucks, the Michelin Challenge Bibendum road rally, and advanced technology vehicles at Robins Air Force Base, the Top Ten Clean Cities coalitions for 2000, and AFVs on college campuses.

Understanding the Alternative Conceptions of Pre-Service Secondary Science Teachers about Tidal Phenomena Based on Toulmin's Argumentation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oh, Jun-Young

2014-01-01

Constructing explanations and participating in argumentative discourse are seen as essential practices of scientific inquiry. The objective of this study was to explore the elements and origins of pre-service secondary science teachers' alternative conceptions of tidal phenomena based on the elements used in Toulmin's Argument Model through…

An agent-based computational model of the spread of tuberculosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Espíndola, Aquino L.; Bauch, Chris T.; Troca Cabella, Brenno C.; Souto Martinez, Alexandre

2011-05-01

In this work we propose an alternative model of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of drug resistance due to the treatment with antibiotics. We implement the simulations by an agent-based model computational approach where the spatial structure is taken into account. The spread of tuberculosis occurs according to probabilities defined by the interactions among individuals. The model was validated by reproducing results already known from the literature in which different treatment regimes yield the emergence of drug resistance. The different patterns of TB spread can be visualized at any time of the system evolution. The implementation details as well as some results of this alternative approach are discussed.

Sustainable High-Potential Career Development: A Resource-Based View.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iles, Paul

1997-01-01

In the current economic climate, fast-track career models pose problems for individuals and organizations. An alternative model uses a resource-based view of the company and principles of sustainable development borrowed from environmentalism. (SK)

Specification, testing, and interpretation of gene-by-measured-environment interaction models in the presence of gene-environment correlation

PubMed Central

Rathouz, Paul J.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Lee Rodgers, Joseph; Waldman, Irwin D.; Lahey, Benjamin B.

2009-01-01

Purcell (2002) proposed a bivariate biometric model for testing and quantifying the interaction between latent genetic influences and measured environments in the presence of gene-environment correlation. Purcell’s model extends the Cholesky model to include gene-environment interaction. We examine a number of closely-related alternative models that do not involve gene-environment interaction but which may fit the data as well Purcell’s model. Because failure to consider these alternatives could lead to spurious detection of gene-environment interaction, we propose alternative models for testing gene-environment interaction in the presence of gene-environment correlation, including one based on the correlated factors model. In addition, we note mathematical errors in the calculation of effect size via variance components in Purcell’s model. We propose a statistical method for deriving and interpreting variance decompositions that are true to the fitted model. PMID:18293078

GBFEL-TIE (Ground-Based Free Electron Laser Technology Experiment) sample survey on White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico: The NASA, Stallion, and Orogrande Alternatives. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seaman, T.J.; Doleman, W.H.

1988-09-30

Three locations on White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, are under consideration as alternatives for the proposed Ground-Based Free-Electron Laser Technology Integration Experiment (GBFEL-TIE). The study conducted jointly by Prewitt and Associates, Inc., and the Office of Contract Archeology, was designed to provide input into the GBFEL-TIE Draft Environmental Impact Statement concerning the potential impact of the proposed project on cultural resources in each of the alternatives. The input consists of a series of predictions based on data gathered from two sources: (1) a cultural resource sample survey (15%) of two alternatives conducted as part of this study, and (2)more » from a previous survey of the third alternative. A predictive model was devleoped and applied using these data that estimated the potential impact of the GBFEL-TIE facility on the cultural resources within each alternative. The predictions indicate that the NASA alternatives, by far, the least favorable location for the facility followed by the Orogrande and Stallion Alternatives.« less

Overcoming default categorical bias in spatial memory.

PubMed

Sampaio, Cristina; Wang, Ranxiao Frances

2010-12-01

In the present study, we investigated whether a strong default categorical bias can be overcome in spatial memory by using alternative membership information. In three experiments, we tested location memory in a circular space while providing participants with an alternative categorization. We found that visual presentation of the boundaries of the alternative categories (Experiment 1) did not induce the use of the alternative categories in estimation. In contrast, visual cuing of the alternative category membership of a target (Experiment 2) and unique target feature information associated with each alternative category (Experiment 3) successfully led to the use of the alternative categories in estimation. Taken together, the results indicate that default categorical bias in spatial memory can be overcome when appropriate cues are provided. We discuss how these findings expand the category adjustment model (Huttenlocher, Hedges, & Duncan, 1991) in spatial memory by proposing a retrieval-based category adjustment (RCA) model.

Parameter Estimation of Computationally Expensive Watershed Models Through Efficient Multi-objective Optimization and Interactive Decision Analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, Taimoor; Shoemaker, Christine

2016-04-01

Watershed model calibration is inherently a multi-criteria problem. Conflicting trade-offs exist between different quantifiable calibration criterions indicating the non-existence of a single optimal parameterization. Hence, many experts prefer a manual approach to calibration where the inherent multi-objective nature of the calibration problem is addressed through an interactive, subjective, time-intensive and complex decision making process. Multi-objective optimization can be used to efficiently identify multiple plausible calibration alternatives and assist calibration experts during the parameter estimation process. However, there are key challenges to the use of multi objective optimization in the parameter estimation process which include: 1) multi-objective optimization usually requires many model simulations, which is difficult for complex simulation models that are computationally expensive; and 2) selection of one from numerous calibration alternatives provided by multi-objective optimization is non-trivial. This study proposes a "Hybrid Automatic Manual Strategy" (HAMS) for watershed model calibration to specifically address the above-mentioned challenges. HAMS employs a 3-stage framework for parameter estimation. Stage 1 incorporates the use of an efficient surrogate multi-objective algorithm, GOMORS, for identification of numerous calibration alternatives within a limited simulation evaluation budget. The novelty of HAMS is embedded in Stages 2 and 3 where an interactive visual and metric based analytics framework is available as a decision support tool to choose a single calibration from the numerous alternatives identified in Stage 1. Stage 2 of HAMS provides a goodness-of-fit measure / metric based interactive framework for identification of a small subset (typically less than 10) of meaningful and diverse set of calibration alternatives from the numerous alternatives obtained in Stage 1. Stage 3 incorporates the use of an interactive visual analytics framework for decision support in selection of one parameter combination from the alternatives identified in Stage 2. HAMS is applied for calibration of flow parameters of a SWAT model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) designed to simulate flow in the Cannonsville watershed in upstate New York. Results from the application of HAMS to Cannonsville indicate that efficient multi-objective optimization and interactive visual and metric based analytics can bridge the gap between the effective use of both automatic and manual strategies for parameter estimation of computationally expensive watershed models.

Alternative large-scale conservation visions for northern Maine: interviews with decision leaders in Maine

Treesearch

Elizabeth Dennis Baldwin; Laura S. Kenefic; Will F. LaPage

2007-01-01

Based on confidential interviews with 21 decision leaders in Maine, Elizabeth Baldwin, Laura Kenefic, and Will LaPage examine the complexity of the conflicts over alternate visions for large-scale conservation in Maine. Exploring models that may be useful for policymakers grappling with competing values for Maine's forests, they present four alternatives: national...

Community-Based Rehabilitation (CBR): Problems and Possibilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Toole, Brian

1987-01-01

The institution-based model for providing services to individuals with disabilities has limitations in both developing and developed countries. The community-based rehabilitation model was positively evaluated by the World Health Organization as an alternative approach, but the evaluation is questioned on methodological and philosophical grounds.…

An Integrated MCDM Model for Conveyor Equipment Evaluation and Selection in an FMC Based on a Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy ARAS in the Presence of Vagueness.

PubMed

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Dawal, Siti Zawiah Md; Nukman, Yusoff; Rifai, Achmad P; Aoyama, Hideki

2016-01-01

The conveyor system plays a vital role in improving the performance of flexible manufacturing cells (FMCs). The conveyor selection problem involves the evaluation of a set of potential alternatives based on qualitative and quantitative criteria. This paper presents an integrated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model of a fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and fuzzy ARAS (additive ratio assessment) for conveyor evaluation and selection. In this model, linguistic terms represented as triangular fuzzy numbers are used to quantify experts' uncertain assessments of alternatives with respect to the criteria. The fuzzy set is then integrated into the AHP to determine the weights of the criteria. Finally, a fuzzy ARAS is used to calculate the weights of the alternatives. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a case study is performed of a practical example, and the results obtained demonstrate practical potential for the implementation of FMCs.

An Integrated MCDM Model for Conveyor Equipment Evaluation and Selection in an FMC Based on a Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy ARAS in the Presence of Vagueness

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Md Dawal, Siti Zawiah; Nukman, Yusoff; P. Rifai, Achmad; Aoyama, Hideki

2016-01-01

The conveyor system plays a vital role in improving the performance of flexible manufacturing cells (FMCs). The conveyor selection problem involves the evaluation of a set of potential alternatives based on qualitative and quantitative criteria. This paper presents an integrated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model of a fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and fuzzy ARAS (additive ratio assessment) for conveyor evaluation and selection. In this model, linguistic terms represented as triangular fuzzy numbers are used to quantify experts’ uncertain assessments of alternatives with respect to the criteria. The fuzzy set is then integrated into the AHP to determine the weights of the criteria. Finally, a fuzzy ARAS is used to calculate the weights of the alternatives. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a case study is performed of a practical example, and the results obtained demonstrate practical potential for the implementation of FMCs. PMID:27070543

Alternative model for administration and analysis of research-based assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, Bethany R.; Zwickl, Benjamin M.; Hobbs, Robert D.; Aiken, John M.; Welch, Nathan M.; Lewandowski, H. J.

2016-06-01

Research-based assessments represent a valuable tool for both instructors and researchers interested in improving undergraduate physics education. However, the historical model for disseminating and propagating conceptual and attitudinal assessments developed by the physics education research (PER) community has not resulted in widespread adoption of these assessments within the broader community of physics instructors. Within this historical model, assessment developers create high quality, validated assessments, make them available for a wide range of instructors to use, and provide minimal (if any) support to assist with administration or analysis of the results. Here, we present and discuss an alternative model for assessment dissemination, which is characterized by centralized data collection and analysis. This model provides a greater degree of support for both researchers and instructors in order to more explicitly support adoption of research-based assessments. Specifically, we describe our experiences developing a centralized, automated system for an attitudinal assessment we previously created to examine students' epistemologies and expectations about experimental physics. This system provides a proof of concept that we use to discuss the advantages associated with centralized administration and data collection for research-based assessments in PER. We also discuss the challenges that we encountered while developing, maintaining, and automating this system. Ultimately, we argue that centralized administration and data collection for standardized assessments is a viable and potentially advantageous alternative to the default model characterized by decentralized administration and analysis. Moreover, with the help of online administration and automation, this model can support the long-term sustainability of centralized assessment systems.

The Practice-Based Learning of Educators: A Co-Emergent Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fenwick, Tara J.

2004-01-01

Practice-based or experiential learning has come to be dominated by mentalist models of reflection on experience. The argument here is that these models split mind from body and subject from environment in ways that yield problematic practices. An alternate conception of practice-based learning is offered here, based on the notion of…

The School-Based Activities Model: A Promising Alternative to Professional Development Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lachance, Andrea M.; Benton, Cynthia J.; Klein, Beth Shiner

2007-01-01

Partnerships, especially the Professional Development School (PDS) model, between institutions of higher education (IHE) and public schools (PS), have become, if not commonplace, a successful model for teacher education. PDS teacher education projects in which preservice teachers and higher education faculty participate in school-based instruction…

A Memory-Based Model of Hick's Law

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneider, Darryl W.; Anderson, John R.

2011-01-01

We propose and evaluate a memory-based model of Hick's law, the approximately linear increase in choice reaction time with the logarithm of set size (the number of stimulus-response alternatives). According to the model, Hick's law reflects a combination of associative interference during retrieval from declarative memory and occasional savings…

Revisiting the 'Low BirthWeight paradox' using a model-based definition.

PubMed

Juárez, Sol; Ploubidis, George B; Clarke, Lynda

2014-01-01

Immigrant mothers in Spain have a lower risk of delivering Low BirthWeight (LBW) babies in comparison to Spaniards (LBW paradox). This study aimed at revisiting this finding by applying a model-based threshold as an alternative to the conventional definition of LBW. Vital information data from Madrid was used (2005-2006). LBW was defined in two ways (less than 2500g and Wilcox's proposal). Logistic and linear regression models were run. According to common definition of LBW (less than 2500g) there is evidence to support the LBW paradox in Spain. Nevertheless, when an alternative model-based definition of LBW is used, the paradox is only clearly present in mothers from the rest of Southern America, suggesting a possible methodological bias effect. In the future, any examination of the existence of the LBW paradox should incorporate model-based definitions of LBW in order to avoid methodological bias. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Enhanced LOD Concepts for Virtual 3d City Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benner, J.; Geiger, A.; Gröger, G.; Häfele, K.-H.; Löwner, M.-O.

2013-09-01

Virtual 3D city models contain digital three dimensional representations of city objects like buildings, streets or technical infrastructure. Because size and complexity of these models continuously grow, a Level of Detail (LoD) concept effectively supporting the partitioning of a complete model into alternative models of different complexity and providing metadata, addressing informational content, complexity and quality of each alternative model is indispensable. After a short overview on various LoD concepts, this paper discusses the existing LoD concept of the CityGML standard for 3D city models and identifies a number of deficits. Based on this analysis, an alternative concept is developed and illustrated with several examples. It differentiates between first, a Geometric Level of Detail (GLoD) and a Semantic Level of Detail (SLoD), and second between the interior building and its exterior shell. Finally, a possible implementation of the new concept is demonstrated by means of an UML model.

Analysis of crash proportion by vehicle type at traffic analysis zone level: A mixed fractional split multinomial logit modeling approach with spatial effects.

PubMed

Lee, Jaeyoung; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Cai, Qing

2018-02-01

In traffic safety literature, crash frequency variables are analyzed using univariate count models or multivariate count models. In this study, we propose an alternative approach to modeling multiple crash frequency dependent variables. Instead of modeling the frequency of crashes we propose to analyze the proportion of crashes by vehicle type. A flexible mixed multinomial logit fractional split model is employed for analyzing the proportions of crashes by vehicle type at the macro-level. In this model, the proportion allocated to an alternative is probabilistically determined based on the alternative propensity as well as the propensity of all other alternatives. Thus, exogenous variables directly affect all alternatives. The approach is well suited to accommodate for large number of alternatives without a sizable increase in computational burden. The model was estimated using crash data at Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level from Florida. The modeling results clearly illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework for crash proportion analysis. Further, the Excess Predicted Proportion (EPP)-a screening performance measure analogous to Highway Safety Manual (HSM), Excess Predicted Average Crash Frequency is proposed for hot zone identification. Using EPP, a statewide screening exercise by the various vehicle types considered in our analysis was undertaken. The screening results revealed that the spatial pattern of hot zones is substantially different across the various vehicle types considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remote sensing of rangeland biodiversity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rangelands are managed based on state and transition models for an ecological site. Transitions to alternative ecological states are indicative of degrading rangelands. Three key variables may be remotely sensed to detect transitions between alternative states: amount of bare soil, presence of inva...

Field-Based Internship Models for Alternative Certification of Science and Mathematics Teachers: Views of Interns, Mentors, and University Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arbaugh, Fran; Abell, Sandra; Lannin, John; Volkmann, Mark; Boone, William

2007-01-01

In response to shortages of science and mathematics teachers in the U.S., many states have promoted alternative routes to certification in which individuals with non-education undergraduate degrees can become certificated in shorter timeframes than in traditional programs. One consideration in designing alternative programs is how to arrange…

Implications of alternative field-sampling designs on Landsat-based mapping of stand age and carbon stocks in Oregon forests

Treesearch

Maureen V. Duane; Warren B. Cohen; John L. Campbell; Tara Hudiburg; David P. Turner; Dale Weyermann

2010-01-01

Empirical models relating forest attributes to remotely sensed metrics are widespread in the literature and underpin many of our efforts to map forest structure across complex landscapes. In this study we compared empirical models relating Landsat reflectance to forest age across Oregon using two alternate sets of ground data: one from a large (n ~ 1500) systematic...

Effects of an Intellectually Caring Model on Urban African American Alternative High School Students' Conceptual Change and Achievement in Chemistry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Lynda C.; Ebenezer, Jazlin; Boone, Relena

2013-01-01

The purpose of this article is to study the effects of an intellectually caring model of teaching and learning on alternative African American high school students' conceptual change and achievement in a chemistry unit on acids and bases. A mixed-methods approach using retrospective data was utilized. Data secured from the teacher were the…

Integrating distributional, spatial prioritization, and individual-based models to evaluate potential critical habitat networks: A case study using the Northern Spotted Owl

EPA Science Inventory

As part of the northern spotted owl recovery planning effort, we evaluated a series of alternative critical habitat scenarios using a species-distribution model (MaxEnt), a conservation-planning model (Zonation), and an individual-based population model (HexSim). With this suite ...

Pharmacokinetic modeling in aquatic animals. 1. Models and concepts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barron, M.G.; Stehly, Guy R.; Hayton, W.L.

1990-01-01

While clinical and toxicological applications of pharmacokinetics have continued to evolve both conceptually and experimentally, pharmacokinetics modeling in aquatic animals has not progressed accordingly. In this paper we present methods and concepts of pharmacokinetic modeling in aquatic animals using multicompartmental, clearance-based, non-compartmental and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models. These models should be considered as alternatives to traditional approaches, which assume that the animal acts as a single homogeneous compartment based on apparent monoexponential elimination.

Lower- Versus Higher-Income Populations In The Alternative Quality Contract: Improved Quality And Similar Spending

PubMed Central

Song, Zirui; Rose, Sherri; Chernew, Michael E.; Safran, Dana Gelb

2018-01-01

As population-based payment models become increasingly common, it is crucial to understand how such payment models affect health disparities. We evaluated health care quality and spending among enrollees in areas with lower versus higher socioeconomic status in Massachusetts before and after providers entered into the Alternative Quality Contract, a two-sided population-based payment model with substantial incentives tied to quality. We compared changes in process measures, outcome measures, and spending between enrollees in areas with lower and higher socioeconomic status from 2006 to 2012 (outcome measures were measured after the intervention only). Quality improved for all enrollees in the Alternative Quality Contract after their provider organizations entered the contract. Process measures improved 1.2 percentage points per year more among enrollees in areas with lower socioeconomic status than among those in areas with higher socioeconomic status. Outcome measure improvement was no different between the subgroups; neither were changes in spending. Larger or comparable improvements in quality among enrollees in areas with lower socioeconomic status suggest a potential narrowing of disparities. Strong pay-for-performance incentives within a population-based payment model could encourage providers to focus on improving quality for more disadvantaged populations. PMID:28069849

An approach to solve group-decision-making problems with ordinal interval numbers.

PubMed

Fan, Zhi-Ping; Liu, Yang

2010-10-01

The ordinal interval number is a form of uncertain preference information in group decision making (GDM), while it is seldom discussed in the existing research. This paper investigates how the ranking order of alternatives is determined based on preference information of ordinal interval numbers in GDM problems. When ranking a large quantity of ordinal interval numbers, the efficiency and accuracy of the ranking process are critical. A new approach is proposed to rank alternatives using ordinal interval numbers when every ranking ordinal in an ordinal interval number is thought to be uniformly and independently distributed in its interval. First, we give the definition of possibility degree on comparing two ordinal interval numbers and the related theory analysis. Then, to rank alternatives, by comparing multiple ordinal interval numbers, a collective expectation possibility degree matrix on pairwise comparisons of alternatives is built, and an optimization model based on this matrix is constructed. Furthermore, an algorithm is also presented to rank alternatives by solving the model. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the use of the proposed approach.

Integrated urban systems model with multiple transportation supply agents.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

This project demonstrates the feasibility of developing quantitative models that can forecast future networks under : current and alternative transportation planning processes. The current transportation planning process is modeled : based on empiric...

Alternative models of climatic effects on sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) productivity in Bristol Bay, Alaska, and the Fraser River, British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adkison, M.; Peterman, R.; Lapointe, M.; Gillis, D.; Korman, J.

1996-01-01

We compare alternative models of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) productivity (returns per spawner) using more than 30 years of catch and escapement data for Bristol Bay, Alaska, and the Fraser River, British Columbia. The models examined include several alternative forms of models that incorporate climatic influences as well as models not based on climate. For most stocks, a stationary stock-recruitment relationship explains very little of the interannual variation in productivity. In Bristol Bay, productivity co-varies among stocks and appears to be strongly related to fluctuations in climate. The best model for Bristol Bay sockeye involved a change in the 1970s in the parameters of the Ricker stock-recruitment curve; the stocks generally became more productive. In contrast, none of the models of Fraser River stocks that we examined explained much of the variability in their productivity.

Simulation-Based Cutaneous Surgical-Skill Training on a Chicken-Skin Bench Model in a Medical Undergraduate Program

PubMed Central

Denadai, Rafael; Saad-Hossne, Rogério; Martinhão Souto, Luís Ricardo

2013-01-01

Background: Because of ethical and medico-legal aspects involved in the training of cutaneous surgical skills on living patients, human cadavers and living animals, it is necessary the search for alternative and effective forms of training simulation. Aims: To propose and describe an alternative methodology for teaching and learning the principles of cutaneous surgery in a medical undergraduate program by using a chicken-skin bench model. Materials and Methods: One instructor for every four students, teaching materials on cutaneous surgical skills, chicken trunks, wings, or thighs, a rigid platform support, needled threads, needle holders, surgical blades with scalpel handles, rat-tooth tweezers, scissors, and marking pens were necessary for training simulation. Results: A proposal for simulation-based training on incision, suture, biopsy, and on reconstruction techniques using a chicken-skin bench model distributed in several sessions and with increasing levels of difficultywas structured. Both feedback and objective evaluations always directed to individual students were also outlined. Conclusion: The teaching of a methodology for the principles of cutaneous surgery using a chicken-skin bench model versatile, portable, easy to assemble, and inexpensive is an alternative and complementary option to the armamentarium of methods based on other bench models described. PMID:23723471

Examining the DSM-5 alternative personality disorder model operationalization of antisocial personality disorder and psychopathy in a male correctional sample.

PubMed

Wygant, Dustin B; Sellbom, Martin; Sleep, Chelsea E; Wall, Tina D; Applegate, Kathryn C; Krueger, Robert F; Patrick, Christopher J

2016-07-01

For decades, it has been known that the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) diagnosis of Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD) is a nonadequate operationalization of psychopathy (Crego & Widiger, 2015). The DSM-5 alternative model of personality disorders provides an opportunity to rectify some of these long held concerns. The current study compared the Section III alternative model's trait-based conception of ASPD with the categorical model from the main diagnostic codes section of DSM-5 in terms of associations with differing models of psychopathy. We also evaluated the validity of the trait-based conception more broadly in relation to measures of antisocial tendencies as well as psychopathy. Participants were 200 male inmates who were administered a battery of self-report and interview-based researcher rating measures of relevant constructs. Analyses showed that Section III ASPD outperformed Section II ASPD in predicting scores on Hare's (2003) Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; r = .88 vs. .59). Additionally, aggregate scores for Section III ASPD performed well in capturing variance in differing ASPD and psychopathy measures. Finally, we found that the Section III ASPD impairment criteria added incrementally to the Section III ASPD traits in predicting PCL-R psychopathy and SCID-II ASPD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Optimizing spectral wave estimates with adjoint-based sensitivity maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orzech, Mark; Veeramony, Jay; Flampouris, Stylianos

2014-04-01

A discrete numerical adjoint has recently been developed for the stochastic wave model SWAN. In the present study, this adjoint code is used to construct spectral sensitivity maps for two nearshore domains. The maps display the correlations of spectral energy levels throughout the domain with the observed energy levels at a selected location or region of interest (LOI/ROI), providing a full spectrum of values at all locations in the domain. We investigate the effectiveness of sensitivity maps based on significant wave height ( H s ) in determining alternate offshore instrument deployment sites when a chosen nearshore location or region is inaccessible. Wave and bathymetry datasets are employed from one shallower, small-scale domain (Duck, NC) and one deeper, larger-scale domain (San Diego, CA). The effects of seasonal changes in wave climate, errors in bathymetry, and multiple assimilation points on sensitivity map shapes and model performance are investigated. Model accuracy is evaluated by comparing spectral statistics as well as with an RMS skill score, which estimates a mean model-data error across all spectral bins. Results indicate that data assimilation from identified high-sensitivity alternate locations consistently improves model performance at nearshore LOIs, while assimilation from low-sensitivity locations results in lesser or no improvement. Use of sub-sampled or alongshore-averaged bathymetry has a domain-specific effect on model performance when assimilating from a high-sensitivity alternate location. When multiple alternate assimilation locations are used from areas of lower sensitivity, model performance may be worse than with a single, high-sensitivity assimilation point.

Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning

PubMed Central

Maurer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2017-01-01

We compare the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)–or more precisely, models used in multi-attribute value theory (MAVT)–to integrated assessment (IA) models for supporting long-term water supply planning in a small town case study in Switzerland. They are used to evaluate thirteen system scale water supply alternatives in four future scenarios regarding forty-four objectives, covering technical, social, environmental, and economic aspects. The alternatives encompass both conventional and unconventional solutions and differ regarding technical, spatial and organizational characteristics. This paper focuses on the impact assessment and final evaluation step of the structured MCDA decision support process. We analyze the performance of the alternatives for ten stakeholders. We demonstrate the implications of model assumptions by comparing two IA and three MAVT evaluation model layouts of different complexity. For this comparison, we focus on the validity (ranking stability), desirability (value), and distinguishability (value range) of the alternatives given the five model layouts. These layouts exclude or include stakeholder preferences and uncertainties. Even though all five led us to identify the same best alternatives, they did not produce identical rankings. We found that the MAVT-type models provide higher distinguishability and a more robust basis for discussion than the IA-type models. The needed complexity of the model, however, should be determined based on the intended use of the model within the decision support process. The best-performing alternatives had consistently strong performance for all stakeholders and future scenarios, whereas the current water supply system was outperformed in all evaluation layouts. The best-performing alternatives comprise proactive pipe rehabilitation, adapted firefighting provisions, and decentralized water storage and/or treatment. We present recommendations for possible ways of improving water supply planning in the case study and beyond. PMID:28481881

Physiologically-based kinetic modelling in risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The European Union Reference Laboratory for Alternatives to Animal Testing (EURL ECVAM) hosted a two-day workshop with an aim to discuss the role and application of Physiologically Based Kinetic (PBK) models in regulatory decision making. The EURL ECVAM strategy document on Toxic...

Evaluation of the Sustainability and Clinical Outcome of Alternatives for Families: A Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (AF-CBT) in a Child Protection Center

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolko, David J.; Iselin, Anne-Marie R.; Gully, Kevin J.

2011-01-01

This paper examines the sustainability and outcome of Alternatives for Families: A Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (AF-CBT) as delivered by practitioners in a community-based child protection program who had received training in the model several years earlier. Formerly described as Abuse-Focused CBT, AF-CBT is an evidence-based treatment (EBT) for…

Using Rasch Measurement to Develop a Computer Modeling-Based Instrument to Assess Students' Conceptual Understanding of Matter

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wei, Silin; Liu, Xiufeng; Wang, Zuhao; Wang, Xingqiao

2012-01-01

Research suggests that difficulty in making connections among three levels of chemical representations--macroscopic, submicroscopic, and symbolic--is a primary reason for student alternative conceptions of chemistry concepts, and computer modeling is promising to help students make the connections. However, no computer modeling-based assessment…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wellman, Dawn M.; Freshley, Mark D.; Truex, Michael J.

Current requirements for site remediation and closure are standards-based and are often overly conservative, costly, and in some cases, technically impractical to achieve. Use of risk-informed alternate endpoints provide a means to achieve remediation goals that are permitted by regulations and are protective of human health and the environment. Alternate endpoints enable establishing a path for cleanup that may include intermediate remedial milestones and transition points and/or regulatory alternatives to standards-based remediation. A framework is presented that is centered around developing and refining conceptual models in conjunction with assessing risks and potential endpoints as part of a system-based assessment thatmore » integrates site data with scientific understanding of processes that control the distribution and transport of contaminants in the subsurface and pathways to receptors. This system based assessment and subsequent implementation of the remediation strategy with appropriate monitoring are targeted at providing a holistic approach to addressing risks to human health and the environment. This holistic approach also enables effective predictive analysis of contaminant behavior to provide defensible criteria and data for making long-term decisions. Developing and implementing an alternate endpoint-based approach for remediation and waste site closure presents a number of challenges and opportunities. Categories of these challenges include scientific and technical, regulatory, institutional, and budget and resource allocation issues. Opportunities exist for developing and implementing systems-based approaches with respect to supportive characterization, monitoring, predictive modeling, and remediation approaches.« less

Assessment of Matrix Multiplication Learning with a Rule-Based Analytical Model--"A Bayesian Network Representation"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhidong

2016-01-01

This study explored an alternative assessment procedure to examine learning trajectories of matrix multiplication. It took rule-based analytical and cognitive task analysis methods specifically to break down operation rules for a given matrix multiplication. Based on the analysis results, a hierarchical Bayesian network, an assessment model,…

A Model of Homeschooling Based on Technology in Malaysia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alias, Norlidah; Rahman, Mohd. Nazri Abdul; Siraj, Saedah; Ibrahim, Ruslina

2013-01-01

Homeschooling in Malaysia is a form of alternative education that emphasizes quality education based on moral values and belief in strengthening family ties. The purpose of this study is to produce a model of homeschooling technology-based learning activities in Malaysia as a guideline to improve the quality of education, curriculum and organize…

On the Suitability of MPI as a PGAS Runtime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daily, Jeffrey A.; Vishnu, Abhinav; Palmer, Bruce J.

2014-12-18

Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) models are emerging as a popular alternative to MPI models for designing scalable applications. At the same time, MPI remains a ubiquitous communication subsystem due to its standardization, high performance, and availability on leading platforms. In this paper, we explore the suitability of using MPI as a scalable PGAS communication subsystem. We focus on the Remote Memory Access (RMA) communication in PGAS models which typically includes {\\em get, put,} and {\\em atomic memory operations}. We perform an in-depth exploration of design alternatives based on MPI. These alternatives include using a semantically-matching interface such as MPI-RMA,more » as well as not-so-intuitive interfaces such as MPI two-sided with a combination of multi-threading and dynamic process management. With an in-depth exploration of these alternatives and their shortcomings, we propose a novel design which is facilitated by the data-centric view in PGAS models. This design leverages a combination of highly tuned MPI two-sided semantics and an automatic, user-transparent split of MPI communicators to provide asynchronous progress. We implement the asynchronous progress ranks approach and other approaches within the Communication Runtime for Exascale which is a communication subsystem for Global Arrays. Our performance evaluation spans pure communication benchmarks, graph community detection and sparse matrix-vector multiplication kernels, and a computational chemistry application. The utility of our proposed PR-based approach is demonstrated by a 2.17x speed-up on 1008 processors over the other MPI-based designs.« less

Predictive models for subtypes of autism spectrum disorder based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms and magnetic resonance imaging.

PubMed

Jiao, Y; Chen, R; Ke, X; Cheng, L; Chu, K; Lu, Z; Herskovits, E H

2011-01-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder, of which Asperger syndrome and high-functioning autism are subtypes. Our goal is: 1) to determine whether a diagnostic model based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), brain regional thickness measurements, or brain regional volume measurements can distinguish Asperger syndrome from high-functioning autism; and 2) to compare the SNP, thickness, and volume-based diagnostic models. Our study included 18 children with ASD: 13 subjects with high-functioning autism and 5 subjects with Asperger syndrome. For each child, we obtained 25 SNPs for 8 ASD-related genes; we also computed regional cortical thicknesses and volumes for 66 brain structures, based on structural magnetic resonance (MR) examination. To generate diagnostic models, we employed five machine-learning techniques: decision stump, alternating decision trees, multi-class alternating decision trees, logistic model trees, and support vector machines. For SNP-based classification, three decision-tree-based models performed better than the other two machine-learning models. The performance metrics for three decision-tree-based models were similar: decision stump was modestly better than the other two methods, with accuracy = 90%, sensitivity = 0.95 and specificity = 0.75. All thickness and volume-based diagnostic models performed poorly. The SNP-based diagnostic models were superior to those based on thickness and volume. For SNP-based classification, rs878960 in GABRB3 (gamma-aminobutyric acid A receptor, beta 3) was selected by all tree-based models. Our analysis demonstrated that SNP-based classification was more accurate than morphometry-based classification in ASD subtype classification. Also, we found that one SNP--rs878960 in GABRB3--distinguishes Asperger syndrome from high-functioning autism.

An alternative low-loss stack topology for vanadium redox flow battery: Comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moro, Federico; Trovò, Andrea; Bortolin, Stefano; Del, Davide, , Col; Guarnieri, Massimo

2017-02-01

Two vanadium redox flow battery topologies have been compared. In the conventional series stack, bipolar plates connect cells electrically in series and hydraulically in parallel. The alternative topology consists of cells connected in parallel inside stacks by means of monopolar plates in order to reduce shunt currents along channels and manifolds. Channelled and flat current collectors interposed between cells were considered in both topologies. In order to compute the stack losses, an equivalent circuit model of a VRFB cell was built from a 2D FEM multiphysics numerical model based on Comsol®, accounting for coupled electrical, electrochemical, and charge and mass transport phenomena. Shunt currents were computed inside the cells with 3D FEM models and in the piping and manifolds by means of equivalent circuits solved with Matlab®. Hydraulic losses were computed with analytical models in piping and manifolds and with 3D numerical analyses based on ANSYS Fluent® in the cell porous electrodes. Total losses in the alternative topology resulted one order of magnitude lower than in an equivalent conventional battery. The alternative topology with channelled current collectors exhibits the lowest shunt currents and hydraulic losses, with round-trip efficiency higher by about 10%, as compared to the conventional topology.

Applying inventory methods to estimate aboveground biomass from satellite light detection and ranging (LiDAR) forest height data

Treesearch

Sean P. Healey; Paul L. Patterson; Sassan Saatchi; Michael A. Lefsky; Andrew J. Lister; Elizabeth A. Freeman; Gretchen G. Moisen

2012-01-01

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) returns from the spaceborne Geoscience Laser Altimeter (GLAS) sensor may offer an alternative to solely field-based forest biomass sampling. Such an approach would rely upon model-based inference, which can account for the uncertainty associated with using modeled, instead of field-collected, measurements. Model-based methods have...

Alternative Payment Models in Radiology: The Legislative and Regulatory Roadmap for Reform.

PubMed

Silva, Ezequiel; McGinty, Geraldine B; Hughes, Danny R; Duszak, Richard

2016-10-01

The Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act (MACRA) replaces the sustainable growth rate with a payment system based on the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and incentives for alternative payment model participation. It is important that radiologists understand the statutory requirements of MACRA. This includes the nature of the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System composite performance score and its impact on payments. The timeline for MACRA implementation is fairly aggressive and includes a robust effort to define episode groups, which include radiologic services. A number of organizations, including the ACR, are commenting on the structure of MACRA-directed initiatives. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Automated Assume-Guarantee Reasoning by Abstraction Refinement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pasareanu, Corina S.; Giannakopoulous, Dimitra; Glannakopoulou, Dimitra

2008-01-01

Current automated approaches for compositional model checking in the assume-guarantee style are based on learning of assumptions as deterministic automata. We propose an alternative approach based on abstraction refinement. Our new method computes the assumptions for the assume-guarantee rules as conservative and not necessarily deterministic abstractions of some of the components, and refines those abstractions using counter-examples obtained from model checking them together with the other components. Our approach also exploits the alphabets of the interfaces between components and performs iterative refinement of those alphabets as well as of the abstractions. We show experimentally that our preliminary implementation of the proposed alternative achieves similar or better performance than a previous learning-based implementation.

Contributions of the Model of Modelling Diagram to the Learning of Ionic Bonding: Analysis of a Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mendonca, Paula Cristina Cardoso; Justi, Rosaria

2011-01-01

Current proposals for science education recognise the importance of students' involvement in activities aimed at favouring the understanding of science as a human, dynamic and non-linear construct. Modelling-based teaching is one of the alternatives through which to address such issues. Modelling-based teaching activities for ionic bonding were…

Copula-based nonlinear modeling of the law of one price for lumber products

Treesearch

Barry K. Goodwin; Matthew T. Holt; Gülcan Önel; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2018-01-01

This paper proposes an alternative and potentially novel approach to analyzing the law of one price in a nonlinear fashion. Copula-based models that consider the joint distribution of prices separated by space are developed and applied to weekly...

Observations and Modelling of Alternative Tree Cover States of the Boreal Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abis, B.; Brovkin, V.

2017-12-01

Recently, multimodality of the tree cover distribution of the boreal forests has been detected, revealing the existence of three alternative vegetation modes. Identifying which are the regions with a potential for alternative tree cover states, and assessing which are the main factors underlying their existence, is important to project future change of natural vegetation cover and its effect on climate.Through the use of generalised additive models and phase-space analysis, we study the link between tree cover distribution and eight globally-observed environmental factors, such as rainfall, temperature, and permafrost distribution. Using a classification based on these factors, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative tree cover states under the same environmental conditions in the boreal region. Furthermore, to explain the multimodality found in the data and the asymmetry between North America and Eurasia, we study a conceptual model based on tree species competition, and use it to simulate the sensitivity of tree cover to changes in environmental factors.We find that the link between individual environmental variables and tree cover differs regionally. Nonetheless, environmental conditions uniquely determine the vegetation state among the three dominant modes in ˜95% of the cases. On the other hand, areas with potentially alternative tree cover states encompass ˜1.1 million km2, and correspond to possible transition zones with a reduced resilience to disturbances. Employing our conceptual model, we show that multimodality can be explained through competition between tree species with different adaptations to environmental factors and disturbances. Moreover, the model is able to reproduce the asymmetry in tree species distribution between Eurasia and North America. Finally, we find that changes in permafrost could be associated with bifurcation points of the model, corroborating the importance of permafrost in a changing climate.

Does a peer model's task proficiency influence children's solution choice and innovation?

PubMed

Wood, Lara A; Kendal, Rachel L; Flynn, Emma G

2015-11-01

The current study investigated whether 4- to 6-year-old children's task solution choice was influenced by the past proficiency of familiar peer models and the children's personal prior task experience. Peer past proficiency was established through behavioral assessments of interactions with novel tasks alongside peer and teacher predictions of each child's proficiency. Based on these assessments, one peer model with high past proficiency and one age-, sex-, dominance-, and popularity-matched peer model with lower past proficiency were trained to remove a capsule using alternative solutions from a three-solution artificial fruit task. Video demonstrations of the models were shown to children after they had either a personal successful interaction or no interaction with the task. In general, there was not a strong bias toward the high past-proficiency model, perhaps due to a motivation to acquire multiple methods and the salience of other transmission biases. However, there was some evidence of a model-based past-proficiency bias; when the high past-proficiency peer matched the participants' original solution, there was increased use of that solution, whereas if the high past-proficiency peer demonstrated an alternative solution, there was increased use of the alternative social solution and novel solutions. Thus, model proficiency influenced innovation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experimental analysis of multi-attribute decision-making based on Atanassov intuitionistic fuzzy sets: a discussion of anchor dependency and accuracy functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting-Yu

2012-06-01

This article presents a useful method for relating anchor dependency and accuracy functions to multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) problems in the context of Atanassov intuitionistic fuzzy sets (A-IFSs). Considering anchored judgement with displaced ideals and solution precision with minimal hesitation, several auxiliary optimisation models have proposed to obtain the optimal weights of the attributes and to acquire the corresponding TOPSIS (the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution) index for alternative rankings. Aside from the TOPSIS index, as a decision-maker's personal characteristics and own perception of self may also influence the direction in the axiom of choice, the evaluation of alternatives is conducted based on distances of each alternative from the positive and negative ideal alternatives, respectively. This article originates from Li's [Li, D.-F. (2005), 'Multiattribute Decision Making Models and Methods Using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets', Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 70, 73-85] work, which is a seminal study of intuitionistic fuzzy decision analysis using deduced auxiliary programming models, and deems it a benchmark method for comparative studies on anchor dependency and accuracy functions. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methods are illustrated by a numerical example. Finally, a comparative analysis is illustrated with computational experiments on averaging accuracy functions, TOPSIS indices, separation measures from positive and negative ideal alternatives, consistency rates of ranking orders, contradiction rates of the top alternative and average Spearman correlation coefficients.

Distribution of Base Pair Alternations in a Periodic DNA Chain: Application of Pólya Counting to a Physical System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillebrand, Malcolm; Paterson-Jones, Guy; Kalosakas, George; Skokos, Charalampos

2018-03-01

In modeling DNA chains, the number of alternations between Adenine-Thymine (AT) and Guanine-Cytosine (GC) base pairs can be considered as a measure of the heterogeneity of the chain, which in turn could affect its dynamics. A probability distribution function of the number of these alternations is derived for circular or periodic DNA. Since there are several symmetries to account for in the periodic chain, necklace counting methods are used. In particular, Polya's Enumeration Theorem is extended for the case of a group action that preserves partitioned necklaces. This, along with the treatment of generating functions as formal power series, allows for the direct calculation of the number of possible necklaces with a given number of AT base pairs, GC base pairs and alternations. The theoretically obtained probability distribution functions of the number of alternations are accurately reproduced by Monte Carlo simulations and fitted by Gaussians. The effect of the number of base pairs on the characteristics of these distributions is also discussed, as well as the effect of the ratios of the numbers of AT and GC base pairs.

Model-as-a-service (MaaS) using the cloud service innovation platform (CSIP)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cloud infrastructures for modelling activities such as data processing, performing environmental simulations, or conducting model calibrations/optimizations provide a cost effective alternative to traditional high performance computing approaches. Cloud-based modelling examples emerged into the more...

An Alternative Representation of a Simulated Human Body

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Casualty Assessment ( ORCA )3 uses this model to determine injury from insults to the body from fragments and bullets. An alternative representation was...Based Casualty Assessment: ORCA Analyst’s Manual; U.S. Army Research Laboratory: Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD, August 2005; draft. 4 U.S. Army Natick

Alternant Leadership: Increasing School System Effectiveness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knoop, Robert; Wagner, James

1986-01-01

A model of "alternant leadership"--leading and succeeding one another by turn--is presented that proposes a democratic, collegial, multivoter, team approach to electing educational leaders. The rationale is based on contingency theories of administration and studies on leadership succession. Related articles are EA 519 583 and 584. (MLF)

Deletion Diagnostics for Alternating Logistic Regressions

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; By, Kunthel; Perin, Jamie; Qaqish, Bahjat F.

2013-01-01

Deletion diagnostics are introduced for the regression analysis of clustered binary outcomes estimated with alternating logistic regressions, an implementation of generalized estimating equations (GEE) that estimates regression coefficients in a marginal mean model and in a model for the intracluster association given by the log odds ratio. The diagnostics are developed within an estimating equations framework that recasts the estimating functions for association parameters based upon conditional residuals into equivalent functions based upon marginal residuals. Extensions of earlier work on GEE diagnostics follow directly, including computational formulae for one-step deletion diagnostics that measure the influence of a cluster of observations on the estimated regression parameters and on the overall marginal mean or association model fit. The diagnostic formulae are evaluated with simulations studies and with an application concerning an assessment of factors associated with health maintenance visits in primary care medical practices. The application and the simulations demonstrate that the proposed cluster-deletion diagnostics for alternating logistic regressions are good approximations of their exact fully iterated counterparts. PMID:22777960

Health courts: an alternative to traditional tort law.

PubMed

Miller, Lisa A

2011-01-01

The current adversarial tort-based system of adjudicating malpractice claims is flawed. Alternate methods of compensation for birth injuries related to oxygen deprivation or mechanical injury are being utilized in Virginia and Florida. Although utilization of both of these schemes is limited, and they are not without problems in application, both have been successful in reducing the number of malpractice claims in the tort system and in reducing malpractice premiums. While the Florida and Virginia programs are primarily focused on compensation, other models outside the US focus include compensation as well as enhanced dispute resolution and potential for clinical practice change through peer review. Experts in the fields of law and public policy in the United States have evaluated a variety of approaches and have proposed models for administrative health courts that would provide both compensation and dispute resolution for medical and nursing malpractice claims. These alternative models are based on transparency and disclosure, with just compensation for injuries, and opportunities for improvements in patient safety.

Approximating recreation site choice: the predictive capability of a lexicographic semi-order model

Treesearch

Alan E. Watson; Joseph W. Roggenbuck

1985-01-01

The relevancy of a lexicographic semi-order model, as a basis for development of a microcomputer-based decision aid for backcountry hikers, was investigated. In an interactive microcomputer exercise, it was found that a decision aid based upon this model may assist recreationists in reduction of an alternative set to a cognitively manageable number.

Alternative Model for Administration and Analysis of Research-Based Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Bethany R.; Zwickl, Benjamin M.; Hobbs, Robert D.; Aiken, John M.; Welch, Nathan M.; Lewandowski, H. J.

2016-01-01

Research-based assessments represent a valuable tool for both instructors and researchers interested in improving undergraduate physics education. However, the historical model for disseminating and propagating conceptual and attitudinal assessments developed by the physics education research (PER) community has not resulted in widespread adoption…

An alternate metabolic hypothesis for a binary mixture of trichloroethylene and carbon tetrachloride: application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling in rats.

EPA Science Inventory

Carbon tetrachloride (CC4) and trichloroethylene (TCE) are hepatotoxic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and environmental contaminants. Previous physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models describe the kinetics ofindividual chemical disposition and metabolic clearance fo...

Device and circuit analysis of a sub 20 nm double gate MOSFET with gate stack using a look-up-table-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, S.; Dasgupta, A.; Das, R.; Kar, M.; Kundu, A.; Sarkar, C. K.

2017-12-01

In this paper, we explore the possibility of mapping devices designed in TCAD environment to its modeled version developed in cadence virtuoso environment using a look-up table (LUT) approach. Circuit simulation of newly designed devices in TCAD environment is a very slow and tedious process involving complex scripting. Hence, the LUT based modeling approach has been proposed as a faster and easier alternative in cadence environment. The LUTs are prepared by extracting data from the device characteristics obtained from device simulation in TCAD. A comparative study is shown between the TCAD simulation and the LUT-based alternative to showcase the accuracy of modeled devices. Finally the look-up table approach is used to evaluate the performance of circuits implemented using 14 nm nMOSFET.

Simulation of the ground-water flow system at Naval Submarine Base Bangor and vicinity, Kitsap County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heeswijk, Marijke van; Smith, Daniel T.

2002-01-01

An evaluation of the interaction between ground-water flow on Naval Submarine Base Bangor and the regional-flow system shows that for selected alternatives of future ground-water pumping on and near the base, the risk is low that significant concentrations of on-base ground-water contamination will reach off-base public-supply wells and hypothetical wells southwest of the base. The risk is low even if worst-case conditions are considered ? no containment and remediation of on-base contamination. The evaluation also shows that future saltwater encroachment of aquifers below sea level may be possible, but this determination has considerable uncertainty associated with it. The potential effects on the ground-water flow system resulting from four hypothetical ground-water pumping alternatives were considered, including no change in 1995 pumping rates, doubling the rates, and 2020 rates estimated from population projections with two different pumping distributions. All but a continuation of 1995 pumping rates demonstrate the possibility of future saltwater encroachment in the Sea-level aquifer on Naval Submarine Base Bangor. The amount of time it would take for encroachment to occur is unknown. For all pumping alternatives, future saltwater encroachment in the Sea-level aquifer also may be possible along Puget Sound east and southeast of the base. Future saltwater encroachment in the Deep aquifer also may be possible throughout large parts of the study area. Projections of saltwater encroachment are least certain outside the boundaries of Naval Submarine Base Bangor. The potential effects of the ground-water pumping alternatives were evaluated by simulating the ground-water flow system with a three-dimensional uniform-density ground-water flow model. The model was calibrated by trial-and-error by minimizing differences between simulated and measured or estimated variables. These included water levels from prior to January 17, 1977 (termed 'predevelopment'), water-level drawdowns since predevelopment until April 15, 1995, ground-water discharge to streams in water year 1995, and residence times of ground water in different parts of the flow system that were estimated in a separate but related study. Large amounts of ground water were pumped from 1977 through 1980 from the Sea-level aquifer on Naval Submarine Base Bangor to enable the construction of an off-shore drydock. Records of the flow-system responses to the applied stresses were used to help calibrate the model. Errors in the calibrated model were significant. The poor agreement between simulated and measured values could be improved by making many local changes to hydraulic parameters but these changes were not supported by other data. Model errors may have resulted in errors in the simulated effects of ground-water pumping alternatives.

Alternatives for jet engine control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sain, M. K.

1983-01-01

Tensor model order reduction, recursive tensor model identification, input design for tensor model identification, software development for nonlinear feedback control laws based upon tensors, and development of the CATNAP software package for tensor modeling, identification and simulation were studied. The last of these are discussed.

Effect of Grain Boundaries on the Performance of Thin-Film-Based Polycrystalline Silicon Solar Cells: A Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chhetri, Nikita; Chatterjee, Somenath

2018-01-01

Solar cells/photovoltaic, a renewable energy source, is appraised to be the most effective alternative to the conventional electrical energy generator. A cost-effective alternative of crystalline wafer-based solar cell is thin-film polycrystalline-based solar cell. This paper reports the numerical analysis of dependency of the solar cell parameters (i.e., efficiency, fill factor, open-circuit voltage and short-circuit current density) on grain size for thin-film-based polycrystalline silicon (Si) solar cells. A minority carrier lifetime model is proposed to do a correlation between the grains, grain boundaries and lifetime for thin-film-based polycrystalline Si solar cells in MATLAB environment. As observed, the increment in the grain size diameter results in increase in minority carrier lifetime in polycrystalline Si thin film. A non-equivalent series resistance double-diode model is used to find the dark as well as light (AM1.5) current-voltage (I-V) characteristics for thin-film-based polycrystalline Si solar cells. To optimize the effectiveness of the proposed model, a successive approximation method is used and the corresponding fitting parameters are obtained. The model is validated with the experimentally obtained results reported elsewhere. The experimentally reported solar cell parameters can be found using the proposed model described here.

Contrasting support for alternative models of genomic variation based on microhabitat preference: species-specific effects of climate change in alpine sedges.

PubMed

Massatti, Rob; Knowles, L Lacey

2016-08-01

Deterministic processes may uniquely affect codistributed species' phylogeographic patterns such that discordant genetic variation among taxa is predicted. Yet, explicitly testing expectations of genomic discordance in a statistical framework remains challenging. Here, we construct spatially and temporally dynamic models to investigate the hypothesized effect of microhabitat preferences on the permeability of glaciated regions to gene flow in two closely related montane species. Utilizing environmental niche models from the Last Glacial Maximum and the present to inform demographic models of changes in habitat suitability over time, we evaluate the relative probabilities of two alternative models using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) in which glaciated regions are either (i) permeable or (ii) a barrier to gene flow. Results based on the fit of the empirical data to data sets simulated using a spatially explicit coalescent under alternative models indicate that genomic data are consistent with predictions about the hypothesized role of microhabitat in generating discordant patterns of genetic variation among the taxa. Specifically, a model in which glaciated areas acted as a barrier was much more probable based on patterns of genomic variation in Carex nova, a wet-adapted species. However, in the dry-adapted Carex chalciolepis, the permeable model was more probable, although the difference in the support of the models was small. This work highlights how statistical inferences can be used to distinguish deterministic processes that are expected to result in discordant genomic patterns among species, including species-specific responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An examination of fuel particle heating during fire spread

Treesearch

Jack D. Cohen; Mark A. Finney

2010-01-01

Recent high intensity wildfires and our demonstrated inability to control extreme fire behavior suggest a need for alternative approaches for preventing wildfire disasters. Current fire spread models are not sufficiently based on a basic understanding of fire spread processes to provide more effective management alternatives. An experimental and theoretical approach...

Visual reconciliation of alternative similarity spaces in climate modeling

Treesearch

J Poco; A Dasgupta; Y Wei; William Hargrove; C.R. Schwalm; D.N. Huntzinger; R Cook; E Bertini; C.T. Silva

2015-01-01

Visual data analysis often requires grouping of data objects based on their similarity. In many application domains researchers use algorithms and techniques like clustering and multidimensional scaling to extract groupings from data. While extracting these groups using a single similarity criteria is relatively straightforward, comparing alternative criteria poses...

Alternative Assessment Methods Based on Categorizations, Supporting Technologies, and a Model for Betterment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ben-Jacob, Marion G.; Ben-Jacob, Tyler E.

2014-01-01

This paper explores alternative assessment methods from the perspective of categorizations. It addresses the technologies that support assessment. It discusses initial, formative, and summative assessment, as well as objective and subjective assessment, and formal and informal assessment. It approaches each category of assessment from the…

Exploring Reading Growth Profiles for Middle School Students with Significant Cognitive Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farley, Daniel Patrick

2017-01-01

Statewide accountability programs are incorporating academic growth estimates for general assessments. This transition focuses attention on modeling growth for students with significant cognitive disabilities (SWSCD) who take alternate assessments based on alternate achievement standards (AA-AAS), as most states attempt to structure their AA-AAS…

An Alternative Proposal for the Graphical Representation of Anticolor Charge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiener, Gergried J.; Schmeling, Sascha M.; Hopf, Martin

2017-01-01

We have developed a learning unit based on the Standard Model of particle physics, featuring novel typographic illustrations of elementary particles and particle systems. Since the unit includes antiparticles and systems of antiparticles, a visualization of anticolor charge was required. We propose an alternative to the commonly used…

Using Alternative Approaches to Prioritize Testing for the Universe of Chemicals with Potential for Human Exposure (WC9)

EPA Science Inventory

One use of alternative methods is to target animal use at only those chemicals and tests that are absolutely necessary. We discuss prioritization of testing based on high-throughput screening assays (HTS), QSAR modeling, high-throughput toxicokinetics (HTTK), and exposure modelin...

Growth Models for Students with Significant Cognitive Disabilities. Research Brief 1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farley, Dan; Saven, Jessica L.; Tindal, Gerald

2013-01-01

Alternate assessments based on alternate achievement standards (AA-AAS) are designed to measure the academic achievement of students with the most significant cognitive disabilities (SWSCDs). AA-AAS present unique measurement challenges because of the inherent need for individualization in item presentation and response, combined with expectations…

A cloud model based multi-attribute decision making approach for selection and evaluation of groundwater management schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Hongwei; Ren, Lixia; Chen, Yizhong; Tian, Peipei; Liu, Jia

2017-12-01

Due to the uncertainty (i.e., fuzziness, stochasticity and imprecision) existed simultaneously during the process for groundwater remediation, the accuracy of ranking results obtained by the traditional methods has been limited. This paper proposes a cloud model based multi-attribute decision making framework (CM-MADM) with Monte Carlo for the contaminated-groundwater remediation strategies selection. The cloud model is used to handle imprecise numerical quantities, which can describe the fuzziness and stochasticity of the information fully and precisely. In the proposed approach, the contaminated concentrations are aggregated via the backward cloud generator and the weights of attributes are calculated by employing the weight cloud module. A case study on the remedial alternative selection for a contaminated site suffering from a 1,1,1-trichloroethylene leakage problem in Shanghai, China is conducted to illustrate the efficiency and applicability of the developed approach. Totally, an attribute system which consists of ten attributes were used for evaluating each alternative through the developed method under uncertainty, including daily total pumping rate, total cost and cloud model based health risk. Results indicated that A14 was evaluated to be the most preferred alternative for the 5-year, A5 for the 10-year, A4 for the 15-year and A6 for the 20-year remediation.

Lower- Versus Higher-Income Populations In The Alternative Quality Contract: Improved Quality And Similar Spending.

PubMed

Song, Zirui; Rose, Sherri; Chernew, Michael E; Safran, Dana Gelb

2017-01-01

As population-based payment models become increasingly common, it is crucial to understand how such payment models affect health disparities. We evaluated health care quality and spending among enrollees in areas with lower versus higher socioeconomic status in Massachusetts before and after providers entered into the Alternative Quality Contract, a two-sided population-based payment model with substantial incentives tied to quality. We compared changes in process measures, outcome measures, and spending between enrollees in areas with lower and higher socioeconomic status from 2006 to 2012 (outcome measures were measured after the intervention only). Quality improved for all enrollees in the Alternative Quality Contract after their provider organizations entered the contract. Process measures improved 1.2 percentage points per year more among enrollees in areas with lower socioeconomic status than among those in areas with higher socioeconomic status. Outcome measure improvement was no different between the subgroups; neither were changes in spending. Larger or comparable improvements in quality among enrollees in areas with lower socioeconomic status suggest a potential narrowing of disparities. Strong pay-for-performance incentives within a population-based payment model could encourage providers to focus on improving quality for more disadvantaged populations. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

A remote-sensing driven tool for estimating crop stress and yields

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biophysical crop simulation models are normally forced with precipitation data recorded with either gages or ground-based radar. However, ground based recording networks are not available at spatial and temporal scales needed to drive the models at many critical places on earth. An alternative would...

Mathematical Modelling in Engineering: An Alternative Way to Teach Linear Algebra

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Domínguez-García, S.; García-Planas, M. I.; Taberna, J.

2016-01-01

Technological advances require that basic science courses for engineering, including Linear Algebra, emphasize the development of mathematical strengths associated with modelling and interpretation of results, which are not limited only to calculus abilities. Based on this consideration, we have proposed a project-based learning, giving a dynamic…

Counter-intuitive quasi-periodic motion in the autonomous vibration of cracked Timoshenko beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandon, J. A.; Abraham, O. N. L.

1995-08-01

The time domain behaviour of a cracked Timoshenko beam is constructed by alternation of two linear models corresponding to the open and closed condition of the crack. It might be expected that a response which is composed of the alternation of two systems with different properties would extinguish the periodicities of the constituent sub-models. The numerical studies presented illustrate the perpetuation of these features without showing any evidence for the creation of periodicities based on a common assumption of the mean period of a bilinear model.

Symposium on Applied Mathematical Programming and Modeling (APMOD93) Held in Budapest, Hungary on January 6-8, 1993. Volume of Extended Abstracts

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-08

rectangular ones. Therefore, symmetrical equivalent solutions go by group of four and will have the same cost. Figuret. Our B&B method will not create, study ...If group members will agree in the ranking of a subset of the alternatives (the top set of one, two, three, four -_.., alternatives), what changes...T., Szillery A. Spreadsheet-Based Model Building and Multiple Criteria Group Decision Support 49 Black, J.A., Seyed-Mosseini, S.M. Traffic Models for

Alternating Direction Implicit (ADI) schemes for a PDE-based image osmosis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calatroni, L.; Estatico, C.; Garibaldi, N.; Parisotto, S.

2017-10-01

We consider Alternating Direction Implicit (ADI) splitting schemes to compute efficiently the numerical solution of the PDE osmosis model considered by Weickert et al. in [10] for several imaging applications. The discretised scheme is shown to preserve analogous properties to the continuous model. The dimensional splitting strategy traduces numerically into the solution of simple tridiagonal systems for which standard matrix factorisation techniques can be used to improve upon the performance of classical implicit methods, even for large time steps. Applications to the shadow removal problem are presented.

The role of alternative Polyadenylation in regulation of rhythmic gene expression.

PubMed

Ptitsyna, Natalia; Boughorbel, Sabri; El Anbari, Mohammed; Ptitsyn, Andrey

2017-08-04

Alternative transcription is common in eukaryotic cells and plays important role in regulation of cellular processes. Alternative polyadenylation results from ambiguous PolyA signals in 3' untranslated region (UTR) of a gene. Such alternative transcripts share the same coding part, but differ by a stretch of UTR that may contain important functional sites. The methodoogy of this study is based on mathematical modeling, analytical solution, and subsequent validation by datamining in multiple independent experimental data from previously published studies. In this study we propose a mathematical model that describes the population dynamics of alternatively polyadenylated transcripts in conjunction with rhythmic expression such as transcription oscillation driven by circadian or metabolic oscillators. Analysis of the model shows that alternative transcripts with different turnover rates acquire a phase shift if the transcript decay rate is different. Difference in decay rate is one of the consequences of alternative polyadenylation. Phase shift can reach values equal to half the period of oscillation, which makes alternative transcripts oscillate in abundance in counter-phase to each other. Since counter-phased transcripts share the coding part, the rate of translation becomes constant. We have analyzed a few data sets collected in circadian timeline for the occurrence of transcript behavior that fits the mathematical model. Alternative transcripts with different turnover rate create the effect of rectifier. This "molecular diode" moderates or completely eliminates oscillation of individual transcripts and stabilizes overall protein production rate. In our observation this phenomenon is very common in different tissues in plants, mice, and humans. The occurrence of counter-phased alternative transcripts is also tissue-specific and affects functions of multiple biological pathways. Accounting for this mechanism is important for understanding the natural and engineering the synthetic cellular circuits.

Comparison of 3D bone models of the knee joint derived from CT and 3T MR imaging.

PubMed

Neubert, Aleš; Wilson, Katharine J; Engstrom, Craig; Surowiec, Rachel K; Paproki, Anthony; Johnson, Nicholas; Crozier, Stuart; Fripp, Jurgen; Ho, Charles P

2017-08-01

To examine whether magnetic resonance (MR) imaging can offer a viable alternative to computed tomography (CT) based 3D bone modeling. CT and MR (SPACE, TrueFISP, VIBE) images were acquired from the left knee joint of a fresh-frozen cadaver. The distal femur, proximal tibia, proximal fibula and patella were manually segmented from the MR and CT examinations. The MR bone models obtained from manual segmentations of all three sequences were compared to CT models using a similarity measure based on absolute mesh differences. The average absolute distance between the CT and the various MR-based bone models were all below 1mm across all bones. The VIBE sequence provided the best agreement with the CT model, followed by the SPACE, then the TrueFISP data. The most notable difference was for the proximal tibia (VIBE 0.45mm, SPACE 0.82mm, TrueFISP 0.83mm). The study indicates that 3D MR bone models may offer a feasible alternative to traditional CT-based modeling. A single radiological examination using the MR imaging would allow simultaneous assessment of both bones and soft-tissues, providing anatomically comprehensive joint models for clinical evaluation, without the ionizing radiation of CT imaging. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resource modeling: A reality for program cost analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fouts, L. D.; Hurst, R. L. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The approach, implementation, operation, and utilization of a model to establish capital investment and operational costs for the Program is presented. These are based on their interrelationships, dependencies, and alternative actions.

Everyday ethical problems in dementia care: a teleological model.

PubMed

Bolmsjö, Ingrid Agren; Edberg, Anna-Karin; Sandman, Lars

2006-07-01

In this article, a teleological model for analysis of everyday ethical situations in dementia care is used to analyse and clarify perennial ethical problems in nursing home care for persons with dementia. This is done with the aim of describing how such a model could be useful in a concrete care context. The model was developed by Sandman and is based on four aspects: the goal; ethical side-constraints to what can be done to realize such a goal; structural constraints; and nurses' ethical competency. The model contains the following main steps: identifying and describing the normative situation; identifying and describing the different possible alternatives; assessing and evaluating the different alternatives; and deciding on, implementing and evaluating the chosen alternative. Three ethically difficult situations from dementia care were used for the application of the model. The model proved useful for the analysis of nurses' everyday ethical dilemmas and will be further explored to evaluate how well it can serve as a tool to identify and handle problems that arise in nursing care.

Pathogen Treatment Guidance and Monitoring Approaches fro ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On-site non-potable water reuse is increasingly used to augment water supplies, but traditional fecal indicator approaches for defining and monitoring exposure risks are limited when applied to these decentralized options. This session emphasizes risk-based modeling to define pathogen log-reduction requirements coupled with alternative targets for monitoring enabled by genomic sequencing (i.e., the microbiome of reuse systems). 1. Discuss risk-based modeling to define pathogen log-reduction requirements 2. Review alternative targets for monitoring 3. Gain an understanding of how new tools can help improve successful development of sustainable on-site non-potable water reuse Presented at the Water Wastewater Equipment Treatment & Transport Show.

A prototype computer-aided modelling tool for life-support system models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Preisig, H. A.; Lee, Tae-Yeong; Little, Frank

1990-01-01

Based on the canonical decomposition of physical-chemical-biological systems, a prototype kernel has been developed to efficiently model alternative life-support systems. It supports (1) the work in an interdisciplinary group through an easy-to-use mostly graphical interface, (2) modularized object-oriented model representation, (3) reuse of models, (4) inheritance of structures from model object to model object, and (5) model data base. The kernel is implemented in Modula-II and presently operates on an IBM PC.

Diagnosis and Treatment of Reading Disabilities Based on the Component Model of Reading: An Alternative to the Discrepancy Model of LD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aaron, P. G.; Joshi, R. Malatesha; Gooden, Regina; Bentum, Kwesi E.

2008-01-01

Currently, learning disabilities (LD) are diagnosed on the basis of the discrepancy between students' IQ and reading achievement scores. Students diagnosed with LD often receive remedial instruction in resource rooms. The available evidence suggests that the educational policy based on this discrepancy model has not yielded satisfactory results.…

Likelihood-based gene annotations for gap filling and quality assessment in genome-scale metabolic models

DOE PAGES

Benedict, Matthew N.; Mundy, Michael B.; Henry, Christopher S.; ...

2014-10-16

Genome-scale metabolic models provide a powerful means to harness information from genomes to deepen biological insights. With exponentially increasing sequencing capacity, there is an enormous need for automated reconstruction techniques that can provide more accurate models in a short time frame. Current methods for automated metabolic network reconstruction rely on gene and reaction annotations to build draft metabolic networks and algorithms to fill gaps in these networks. However, automated reconstruction is hampered by database inconsistencies, incorrect annotations, and gap filling largely without considering genomic information. Here we develop an approach for applying genomic information to predict alternative functions for genesmore » and estimate their likelihoods from sequence homology. We show that computed likelihood values were significantly higher for annotations found in manually curated metabolic networks than those that were not. We then apply these alternative functional predictions to estimate reaction likelihoods, which are used in a new gap filling approach called likelihood-based gap filling to predict more genomically consistent solutions. To validate the likelihood-based gap filling approach, we applied it to models where essential pathways were removed, finding that likelihood-based gap filling identified more biologically relevant solutions than parsimony-based gap filling approaches. We also demonstrate that models gap filled using likelihood-based gap filling provide greater coverage and genomic consistency with metabolic gene functions compared to parsimony-based approaches. Interestingly, despite these findings, we found that likelihoods did not significantly affect consistency of gap filled models with Biolog and knockout lethality data. This indicates that the phenotype data alone cannot necessarily be used to discriminate between alternative solutions for gap filling and therefore, that the use of other information is necessary to obtain a more accurate network. All described workflows are implemented as part of the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) and are publicly available via API or command-line web interface.« less

Likelihood-Based Gene Annotations for Gap Filling and Quality Assessment in Genome-Scale Metabolic Models

PubMed Central

Benedict, Matthew N.; Mundy, Michael B.; Henry, Christopher S.; Chia, Nicholas; Price, Nathan D.

2014-01-01

Genome-scale metabolic models provide a powerful means to harness information from genomes to deepen biological insights. With exponentially increasing sequencing capacity, there is an enormous need for automated reconstruction techniques that can provide more accurate models in a short time frame. Current methods for automated metabolic network reconstruction rely on gene and reaction annotations to build draft metabolic networks and algorithms to fill gaps in these networks. However, automated reconstruction is hampered by database inconsistencies, incorrect annotations, and gap filling largely without considering genomic information. Here we develop an approach for applying genomic information to predict alternative functions for genes and estimate their likelihoods from sequence homology. We show that computed likelihood values were significantly higher for annotations found in manually curated metabolic networks than those that were not. We then apply these alternative functional predictions to estimate reaction likelihoods, which are used in a new gap filling approach called likelihood-based gap filling to predict more genomically consistent solutions. To validate the likelihood-based gap filling approach, we applied it to models where essential pathways were removed, finding that likelihood-based gap filling identified more biologically relevant solutions than parsimony-based gap filling approaches. We also demonstrate that models gap filled using likelihood-based gap filling provide greater coverage and genomic consistency with metabolic gene functions compared to parsimony-based approaches. Interestingly, despite these findings, we found that likelihoods did not significantly affect consistency of gap filled models with Biolog and knockout lethality data. This indicates that the phenotype data alone cannot necessarily be used to discriminate between alternative solutions for gap filling and therefore, that the use of other information is necessary to obtain a more accurate network. All described workflows are implemented as part of the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) and are publicly available via API or command-line web interface. PMID:25329157

Compartmental and Data-Based Modeling of Cerebral Hemodynamics: Linear Analysis.

PubMed

Henley, B C; Shin, D C; Zhang, R; Marmarelis, V Z

Compartmental and data-based modeling of cerebral hemodynamics are alternative approaches that utilize distinct model forms and have been employed in the quantitative study of cerebral hemodynamics. This paper examines the relation between a compartmental equivalent-circuit and a data-based input-output model of dynamic cerebral autoregulation (DCA) and CO2-vasomotor reactivity (DVR). The compartmental model is constructed as an equivalent-circuit utilizing putative first principles and previously proposed hypothesis-based models. The linear input-output dynamics of this compartmental model are compared with data-based estimates of the DCA-DVR process. This comparative study indicates that there are some qualitative similarities between the two-input compartmental model and experimental results.

Behavioral Momentum Theory Fails to Account for the Effects of Reinforcement Rate on Resurgence

PubMed Central

Craig, Andrew R.; Shahan, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

The behavioral-momentum model of resurgence predicts reinforcer rates within a resurgence preparation should have three effects on target behavior. First, higher reinforcer rates in baseline (Phase 1) produce more persistent target behavior during extinction plus alternative reinforcement. Second, higher rate alternative reinforcement during Phase 2 generates greater disruption of target responding during extinction. Finally, higher rates of either reinforcement source should produce greater responding when alternative reinforcement is suspended in Phase 3. Recent empirical reports have produced mixed results in terms of these predictions. Thus, the present experiment further examined reinforcer-rate effects on persistence and resurgence. Rats pressed target levers for high-rate or low-rate variable-interval food during Phase 1. In Phase 2, target-lever pressing was extinguished, an alternative nose-poke became available, and nose-poking produced either high-rate variable-interval, low-rate variable-interval, or no (an extinction control) alternative reinforcement. Alternative reinforcement was suspended in Phase 3. For groups that received no alternative reinforcement, target-lever pressing was less persistent following high-rate than low-rate Phase-1 reinforcement. Target behavior was more persistent with low-rate alternative reinforcement than with high-rate alternative reinforcement or extinction alone. Finally, no differences in Phase-3 responding were observed for groups that received either high-rate or low-rate alternative reinforcement, and resurgence occurred only following high-rate alternative reinforcement. These findings are inconsistent with the momentum-based model of resurgence. We conclude this model mischaracterizes the effects of rein-forcer rates on persistence and resurgence of operant behavior. PMID:27193242

One-to-one encapsulation based on alternating droplet generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirama, Hirotada; Torii, Toru

2015-10-01

This paper reports the preparation of encapsulated particles as models of cells using an alternating droplet generation encapsulation method in which the number of particles in a droplet is controlled by a microchannel to achieve one-to-one encapsulation. Using a microchannel in which wettability is treated locally, the fluorescent particles used as models of cells were successfully encapsulated in uniform water-in-oil-in-water (W/O/W) emulsion droplets. Furthermore, 20% of the particle-containing droplets contained one particle. Additionally, when a surfactant with the appropriate properties was used, the fluorescent particles within each inner aqueous droplet were enclosed in the merged droplet by spontaneous droplet coalescence. This one-to-one encapsulation method based on alternating droplet generation could be used for a variety of applications, such as high-throughput single-cell assays, gene transfection into cells or one-to-one cell fusion.

One-to-one encapsulation based on alternating droplet generation.

PubMed

Hirama, Hirotada; Torii, Toru

2015-10-21

This paper reports the preparation of encapsulated particles as models of cells using an alternating droplet generation encapsulation method in which the number of particles in a droplet is controlled by a microchannel to achieve one-to-one encapsulation. Using a microchannel in which wettability is treated locally, the fluorescent particles used as models of cells were successfully encapsulated in uniform water-in-oil-in-water (W/O/W) emulsion droplets. Furthermore, 20% of the particle-containing droplets contained one particle. Additionally, when a surfactant with the appropriate properties was used, the fluorescent particles within each inner aqueous droplet were enclosed in the merged droplet by spontaneous droplet coalescence. This one-to-one encapsulation method based on alternating droplet generation could be used for a variety of applications, such as high-throughput single-cell assays, gene transfection into cells or one-to-one cell fusion.

Dynamic SPECT reconstruction from few projections: a sparsity enforced matrix factorization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Qiaoqiao; Zan, Yunlong; Huang, Qiu; Zhang, Xiaoqun

2015-02-01

The reconstruction of dynamic images from few projection data is a challenging problem, especially when noise is present and when the dynamic images are vary fast. In this paper, we propose a variational model, sparsity enforced matrix factorization (SEMF), based on low rank matrix factorization of unknown images and enforced sparsity constraints for representing both coefficients and bases. The proposed model is solved via an alternating iterative scheme for which each subproblem is convex and involves the efficient alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). The convergence of the overall alternating scheme for the nonconvex problem relies upon the Kurdyka-Łojasiewicz property, recently studied by Attouch et al (2010 Math. Oper. Res. 35 438) and Attouch et al (2013 Math. Program. 137 91). Finally our proof-of-concept simulation on 2D dynamic images shows the advantage of the proposed method compared to conventional methods.

A Mills Based Model for Preparation of Social Studies Teachers: An Alternative to CBTE Fragmentation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akenson, James E.

This paper suggests a model for the preparation of social studies teachers based on the writings of sociologist C. Wright Mills. In 1961 Mills stated that the purpose of social inquiry should be to help people understand the connection of their personal lives to the social structure, the institutional arrangements of society. Based on this…

Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Lubow, Bruce C.

2016-01-01

Accurately estimating the size of wildlife populations is critical to wildlife management and conservation of species. Raw counts or “minimum counts” are still used as a basis for wildlife management decisions. Uncorrected raw counts are not only negatively biased due to failure to account for undetected animals, but also provide no estimate of precision on which to judge the utility of counts. We applied a hybrid population estimation technique that combined sightability modeling, radio collar-based mark-resight, and simultaneous double count (double-observer) modeling to estimate the population size of elk in a high elevation desert ecosystem. Combining several models maximizes the strengths of each individual model while minimizing their singular weaknesses. We collected data with aerial helicopter surveys of the elk population in the San Luis Valley and adjacent mountains in Colorado State, USA in 2005 and 2007. We present estimates from 7 alternative analyses: 3 based on different methods for obtaining a raw count and 4 based on different statistical models to correct for sighting probability bias. The most reliable of these approaches is a hybrid double-observer sightability model (model MH), which uses detection patterns of 2 independent observers in a helicopter plus telemetry-based detections of radio collared elk groups. Data were fit to customized mark-resight models with individual sighting covariates. Error estimates were obtained by a bootstrapping procedure. The hybrid method was an improvement over commonly used alternatives, with improved precision compared to sightability modeling and reduced bias compared to double-observer modeling. The resulting population estimate corrected for multiple sources of undercount bias that, if left uncorrected, would have underestimated the true population size by as much as 22.9%. Our comparison of these alternative methods demonstrates how various components of our method contribute to improving the final estimate and demonstrates why each is necessary.

Forecasting models for sugi (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) pollen count showing an alternate dispersal rhythm.

PubMed

Ito, Yukiko; Hattori, Reiko; Mase, Hiroki; Watanabe, Masako; Shiotani, Itaru

2008-12-01

Pollen information is indispensable for allergic individuals and clinicians. This study aimed to develop forecasting models for the total annual count of airborne pollen grains based on data monitored over the last 20 years at the Mie Chuo Medical Center, Tsu, Mie, Japan. Airborne pollen grains were collected using a Durham sampler. Total annual pollen count and pollen count from October to December (OD pollen count) of the previous year were transformed to logarithms. Regression analysis of the total pollen count was performed using variables such as the OD pollen count and the maximum temperature for mid-July of the previous year. Time series analysis revealed an alternate rhythm of the series of total pollen count. The alternate rhythm consisted of a cyclic alternation of an "on" year (high pollen count) and an "off" year (low pollen count). This rhythm was used as a dummy variable in regression equations. Of the three models involving the OD pollen count, a multiple regression equation that included the alternate rhythm variable and the interaction of this rhythm with OD pollen count showed a high coefficient of determination (0.844). Of the three models involving the maximum temperature for mid-July, those including the alternate rhythm variable and the interaction of this rhythm with maximum temperature had the highest coefficient of determination (0.925). An alternate pollen dispersal rhythm represented by a dummy variable in the multiple regression analysis plays a key role in improving forecasting models for the total annual sugi pollen count.

Determinants of Graduation Rate of Public Alternative Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Izumi, Masashi; Shen, Jianping; Xia, Jiangang

2015-01-01

In this study we investigated determinants of the graduation rate of public alternative schools by analyzing the most recent, nationally representative data from Schools and Staffing Survey 2007-2008. Based on the literature, we built a series of three regression models via successive block entry, predicting the graduate rate first by (a) student…

Using Combinatorial Approach to Improve Students' Learning of the Distributive Law and Multiplicative Identities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsai, Yu-Ling; Chang, Ching-Kuch

2009-01-01

This article reports an alternative approach, called the combinatorial model, to learning multiplicative identities, and investigates the effects of implementing results for this alternative approach. Based on realistic mathematics education theory, the new instructional materials or modules of the new approach were developed by the authors. From…

Superitem Test: An Alternative Assessment Tool to Assess Students' Algebraic Solving Ability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lian, Lim Hooi; Yew, Wun Thiam; Idris, Noraini

2010-01-01

Superitem test based on the SOLO model (Structure of the Observing Learning Outcome) has become a powerful alternative assessment tool for monitoring the growth of students' cognitive ability in solving mathematics problems. This article focused on developing a superitem test to assess students' algebraic solving ability through interview method.…

The Theory and Practice of Alternative Certification: Implications for the Improvement of Teaching.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawley, Willis D.

1990-01-01

Identifies questions related to the processes and consequences of alternative teacher certification (AC), answers questions with research-based facts, proposes key elements of a model AC program, and draws conclusions about the directions AC may take and its probable effects on educational reform and on the professionalization of teaching. (SM)

Using a food web model to inform the design of river restoration—An example at the Barkley Bear Segment, Methow River, north-central Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benjamin, Joseph R.; Bellmore, J. Ryan; Dombroski, Daniel

2018-01-29

With the decline of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss), habitat restoration actions in freshwater tributaries have been implemented to improve conditions for juveniles. Typically, physical (for example, hydrologic and engineering) based models are used to design restoration alternatives with the assumption that biological responses will be improved with changes to the physical habitat. Biological models rarely are used. Here, we describe simulations of a food web model, the Aquatic Trophic Productivity (ATP) model, to aid in the design of a restoration project in the Methow River, north-central Washington. The ATP model mechanistically links environmental conditions of the stream to the dynamics of river food webs, and can be used to simulate how alternative river restoration designs influence the potential for river reaches to sustain fish production. Four restoration design alternatives were identified that encompassed varying levels of side channel and floodplain reconnection and large wood addition. Our model simulations suggest that design alternatives focused on reconnecting side channels and the adjacent floodplain may provide the greatest increase in fish capacity. These results were robust to a range of discharge and thermal regimes that naturally occur in the Methow River. Our results suggest that biological models, such as the ATP model, can be used during the restoration planning phase to increase the effectiveness of restoration actions. Moreover, the use of multiple modeling efforts, both physical and biological, when evaluating restoration design alternatives provides a better understanding of the potential outcome of restoration actions.

Activity-Based Costing Systems for Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Day, Dennis H.

1993-01-01

Examines traditional costing models utilized in higher education and pinpoints shortcomings related to proper identification of costs. Describes activity-based costing systems as a superior alternative for cost identification, measurement, and allocation. (MLF)

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Reflections on Speech-Language Pathologists' Image as Advocates, Activists, and Aides

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donaldson, Amy L.; Chabon, Shelly; Lee-Wilkerson, Dorian; Kapantzoglou, Maria

2017-01-01

Traditionally speech-language pathology, along with other educational and rehabilitation-based professions, has approached disability from a deficits-based or medical-model perspective with an aim toward normalizing or ameliorating a child's atypical behaviors or performance. However, an alternative perspective rooted in a social model of…

Spatial scaling and multi-model inference in landscape genetics: Martes americana in northern Idaho

Treesearch

Tzeidle N. Wasserman; Samuel A. Cushman; Michael K. Schwartz; David O. Wallin

2010-01-01

Individual-based analyses relating landscape structure to genetic distances across complex landscapes enable rigorous evaluation of multiple alternative hypotheses linking landscape structure to gene flow. We utilize two extensions to increase the rigor of the individual-based causal modeling approach to inferring relationships between landscape patterns and gene flow...

A Test of Two Alternative Cognitive Processing Models: Learning Styles and Dual Coding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cuevas, Joshua; Dawson, Bryan L.

2018-01-01

This study tested two cognitive models, learning styles and dual coding, which make contradictory predictions about how learners process and retain visual and auditory information. Learning styles-based instructional practices are common in educational environments despite a questionable research base, while the use of dual coding is less…

A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR FORECASTING HYDROLOGIC CHANGE

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

An Enhanced Adaptive Management Approach for Remediation of Legacy Mercury in the South River

PubMed Central

Foran, Christy M.; Baker, Kelsie M.; Grosso, Nancy R.; Linkov, Igor

2015-01-01

Uncertainties about future conditions and the effects of chosen actions, as well as increasing resource scarcity, have been driving forces in the utilization of adaptive management strategies. However, many applications of adaptive management have been criticized for a number of shortcomings, including a limited ability to learn from actions and a lack of consideration of stakeholder objectives. To address these criticisms, we supplement existing adaptive management approaches with a decision-analytical approach that first informs the initial selection of management alternatives and then allows for periodic re-evaluation or phased implementation of management alternatives based on monitoring information and incorporation of stakeholder values. We describe the application of this enhanced adaptive management (EAM) framework to compare remedial alternatives for mercury in the South River, based on an understanding of the loading and behavior of mercury in the South River near Waynesboro, VA. The outcomes show that the ranking of remedial alternatives is influenced by uncertainty in the mercury loading model, by the relative importance placed on different criteria, and by cost estimates. The process itself demonstrates that a decision model can link project performance criteria, decision-maker preferences, environmental models, and short- and long-term monitoring information with management choices to help shape a remediation approach that provides useful information for adaptive, incremental implementation. PMID:25665032

Numerical simulation of large-scale bed load particle tracer advection-dispersion in rivers with free bars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iwasaki, Toshiki; Nelson, Jonathan M.; Shimizu, Yasuyuki; Parker, Gary

2017-01-01

Asymptotic characteristics of the transport of bed load tracer particles in rivers have been described by advection-dispersion equations. Here we perform numerical simulations designed to study the role of free bars, and more specifically single-row alternate bars, on streamwise tracer particle dispersion. In treating the conservation of tracer particle mass, we use two alternative formulations for the Exner equation of sediment mass conservation: the flux-based formulation, in which bed elevation varies with the divergence of the bed load transport rate, and the entrainment-based formulation, in which bed elevation changes with the net deposition rate. Under the condition of no net bed aggradation/degradation, a 1-D flux-based deterministic model that does not describe free bars yields no streamwise dispersion. The entrainment-based 1-D formulation, on the other hand, models stochasticity via the probability density function (PDF) of particle step length, and as a result does show tracer dispersion. When the formulation is generalized to 2-D to include free alternate bars, however, both models yield almost identical asymptotic advection-dispersion characteristics, in which streamwise dispersion is dominated by randomness inherent in free bar morphodynamics. This randomness can result in a heavy-tailed PDF of waiting time. In addition, migrating bars may constrain the travel distance through temporary burial, causing a thin-tailed PDF of travel distance. The superdiffusive character of streamwise particle dispersion predicted by the model is attributable to the interaction of these two effects.

Numerical simulation of large-scale bed load particle tracer advection-dispersion in rivers with free bars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwasaki, Toshiki; Nelson, Jonathan; Shimizu, Yasuyuki; Parker, Gary

2017-04-01

Asymptotic characteristics of the transport of bed load tracer particles in rivers have been described by advection-dispersion equations. Here we perform numerical simulations designed to study the role of free bars, and more specifically single-row alternate bars, on streamwise tracer particle dispersion. In treating the conservation of tracer particle mass, we use two alternative formulations for the Exner equation of sediment mass conservation: the flux-based formulation, in which bed elevation varies with the divergence of the bed load transport rate, and the entrainment-based formulation, in which bed elevation changes with the net deposition rate. Under the condition of no net bed aggradation/degradation, a 1-D flux-based deterministic model that does not describe free bars yields no streamwise dispersion. The entrainment-based 1-D formulation, on the other hand, models stochasticity via the probability density function (PDF) of particle step length, and as a result does show tracer dispersion. When the formulation is generalized to 2-D to include free alternate bars, however, both models yield almost identical asymptotic advection-dispersion characteristics, in which streamwise dispersion is dominated by randomness inherent in free bar morphodynamics. This randomness can result in a heavy-tailed PDF of waiting time. In addition, migrating bars may constrain the travel distance through temporary burial, causing a thin-tailed PDF of travel distance. The superdiffusive character of streamwise particle dispersion predicted by the model is attributable to the interaction of these two effects.

Forecasting Pell Program Applications Using Structural Aggregate Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cavin, Edward S.

1995-01-01

Demand for Pell Grant financial aid has become difficult to predict when using the current microsimulation model. This paper proposes an alternative model that uses aggregate data (based on individuals' microlevel decisions and macrodata on family incomes, college costs, and opportunity wages) and avoids some limitations of simple linear models.…

Alternative Multiple Imputation Inference for Mean and Covariance Structure Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Taehun; Cai, Li

2012-01-01

Model-based multiple imputation has become an indispensable method in the educational and behavioral sciences. Mean and covariance structure models are often fitted to multiply imputed data sets. However, the presence of multiple random imputations complicates model fit testing, which is an important aspect of mean and covariance structure…

Choice Inconsistencies among the Elderly: Evidence from Plan Choice in the Medicare Part D Program: Reply

PubMed Central

ABALUCK, JASON

2017-01-01

We explore the in- and out- of sample robustness of tests for choice inconsistencies based on parameter restrictions in parametric models, focusing on tests proposed by Ketcham, Kuminoff and Powers (KKP). We argue that their non-parametric alternatives are inherently conservative with respect to detecting mistakes. We then show that our parametric model is robust to KKP’s suggested specification checks, and that comprehensive goodness of fit measures perform better with our model than the expected utility model. Finally, we explore the robustness of our 2011 results to alternative normative assumptions highlighting the role of brand fixed effects and unobservable characteristics. PMID:29170561

MMA, A Computer Code for Multi-Model Analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poeter, Eileen P.; Hill, Mary C.

2007-01-01

This report documents the Multi-Model Analysis (MMA) computer code. MMA can be used to evaluate results from alternative models of a single system using the same set of observations for all models. As long as the observations, the observation weighting, and system being represented are the same, the models can differ in nearly any way imaginable. For example, they may include different processes, different simulation software, different temporal definitions (for example, steady-state and transient models could be considered), and so on. The multiple models need to be calibrated by nonlinear regression. Calibration of the individual models needs to be completed before application of MMA. MMA can be used to rank models and calculate posterior model probabilities. These can be used to (1) determine the relative importance of the characteristics embodied in the alternative models, (2) calculate model-averaged parameter estimates and predictions, and (3) quantify the uncertainty of parameter estimates and predictions in a way that integrates the variations represented by the alternative models. There is a lack of consensus on what model analysis methods are best, so MMA provides four default methods. Two are based on Kullback-Leibler information, and use the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) or AICc (second-order-bias-corrected AIC) model discrimination criteria. The other two default methods are the BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) and the KIC (Kashyap Information Criterion) model discrimination criteria. Use of the KIC criterion is equivalent to using the maximum-likelihood Bayesian model averaging (MLBMA) method. AIC, AICc, and BIC can be derived from Frequentist or Bayesian arguments. The default methods based on Kullback-Leibler information have a number of theoretical advantages, including that they tend to favor more complicated models as more data become available than do the other methods, which makes sense in many situations. Many applications of MMA will be well served by the default methods provided. To use the default methods, the only required input for MMA is a list of directories where the files for the alternate models are located. Evaluation and development of model-analysis methods are active areas of research. To facilitate exploration and innovation, MMA allows the user broad discretion to define alternatives to the default procedures. For example, MMA allows the user to (a) rank models based on model criteria defined using a wide range of provided and user-defined statistics in addition to the default AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC criteria, (b) create their own criteria using model measures available from the code, and (c) define how each model criterion is used to calculate related posterior model probabilities. The default model criteria rate models are based on model fit to observations, the number of observations and estimated parameters, and, for KIC, the Fisher information matrix. In addition, MMA allows the analysis to include an evaluation of estimated parameter values. This is accomplished by allowing the user to define unreasonable estimated parameter values or relative estimated parameter values. An example of the latter is that it may be expected that one parameter value will be less than another, as might be the case if two parameters represented the hydraulic conductivity of distinct materials such as fine and coarse sand. Models with parameter values that violate the user-defined conditions are excluded from further consideration by MMA. Ground-water models are used as examples in this report, but MMA can be used to evaluate any set of models for which the required files have been produced. MMA needs to read files from a separate directory for each alternative model considered. The needed files are produced when using the Sensitivity-Analysis or Parameter-Estimation mode of UCODE_2005, or, possibly, the equivalent capability of another program. MMA is constructed using

Integrating Intracellular Dynamics Using CompuCell3D and Bionetsolver: Applications to Multiscale Modelling of Cancer Cell Growth and Invasion

PubMed Central

Andasari, Vivi; Roper, Ryan T.; Swat, Maciej H.; Chaplain, Mark A. J.

2012-01-01

In this paper we present a multiscale, individual-based simulation environment that integrates CompuCell3D for lattice-based modelling on the cellular level and Bionetsolver for intracellular modelling. CompuCell3D or CC3D provides an implementation of the lattice-based Cellular Potts Model or CPM (also known as the Glazier-Graner-Hogeweg or GGH model) and a Monte Carlo method based on the metropolis algorithm for system evolution. The integration of CC3D for cellular systems with Bionetsolver for subcellular systems enables us to develop a multiscale mathematical model and to study the evolution of cell behaviour due to the dynamics inside of the cells, capturing aspects of cell behaviour and interaction that is not possible using continuum approaches. We then apply this multiscale modelling technique to a model of cancer growth and invasion, based on a previously published model of Ramis-Conde et al. (2008) where individual cell behaviour is driven by a molecular network describing the dynamics of E-cadherin and -catenin. In this model, which we refer to as the centre-based model, an alternative individual-based modelling technique was used, namely, a lattice-free approach. In many respects, the GGH or CPM methodology and the approach of the centre-based model have the same overall goal, that is to mimic behaviours and interactions of biological cells. Although the mathematical foundations and computational implementations of the two approaches are very different, the results of the presented simulations are compatible with each other, suggesting that by using individual-based approaches we can formulate a natural way of describing complex multi-cell, multiscale models. The ability to easily reproduce results of one modelling approach using an alternative approach is also essential from a model cross-validation standpoint and also helps to identify any modelling artefacts specific to a given computational approach. PMID:22461894

Power conditioning system modelling for nuclear electric propulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalf, Kenneth J.

1993-11-01

NASA LeRC is currently developing a Fortran based model of a complete nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) vehicle that would be used for piloted and cargo missions to the Moon or Mars. The proposed vehicle design will use either a Brayton or K-Rankine power conversion cycle to drive a turbine coupled with a rotary alternator. Two thruster types are also being studied, ion and magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD). In support of this NEP model, Rocketdyne developed a power management and distribution (PMAD) subroutine that provides parametric outputs for selected alternator operating voltages and frequencies, thruster types, system power levels, and electronics coldplate temperatures. The end-to-end PMAD model described is based on the direct use of the alternator voltage and frequency for transmitting power to either ion or MPD thrusters. This low frequency transmission approach was compared with dc and high frequency ac designs, and determined to have the lowest mass, highest efficiency, highest reliability and lowest development costs. While its power quality is not as good as that provided by a high frequency system, it was considered adequate for both ion and MPD engine applications. The low frequency architecture will be used as the reference in future NEP PMAD studies.

Power Conditioning System Modelling for Nuclear Electric Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metcalf, Kenneth J.

1993-01-01

NASA LeRC is currently developing a Fortran based model of a complete nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) vehicle that would be used for piloted and cargo missions to the Moon or Mars. The proposed vehicle design will use either a Brayton or K-Rankine power conversion cycle to drive a turbine coupled with a rotary alternator. Two thruster types are also being studied, ion and magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD). In support of this NEP model, Rocketdyne developed a power management and distribution (PMAD) subroutine that provides parametric outputs for selected alternator operating voltages and frequencies, thruster types, system power levels, and electronics coldplate temperatures. The end-to-end PMAD model described is based on the direct use of the alternator voltage and frequency for transmitting power to either ion or MPD thrusters. This low frequency transmission approach was compared with dc and high frequency ac designs, and determined to have the lowest mass, highest efficiency, highest reliability and lowest development costs. While its power quality is not as good as that provided by a high frequency system, it was considered adequate for both ion and MPD engine applications. The low frequency architecture will be used as the reference in future NEP PMAD studies.

Advanced propulsion for LEO-Moon transport. 3: Transportation model. M.S. Thesis - California Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henley, Mark W.

1992-01-01

A simplified computational model of low Earth orbit-Moon transportation system has been developed to provide insight into the benefits of new transportation technologies. A reference transportation infrastructure, based upon near-term technology developments, is used as a departure point for assessing other, more advanced alternatives. Comparison of the benefits of technology application, measured in terms of a mass payback ratio, suggests that several of the advanced technology alternatives could substantially improve the efficiency of low Earth orbit-Moon transportation.

Conceptualizing race in economic models of medical utilization: a case study of community-based elders and the emergency room.

PubMed Central

White-Means, S I

1995-01-01

There is no consensus on the appropriate conceptualization of race in economic models of health care. This is because race is rarely the primary focus for analysis of the market. This article presents an alternative framework for conceptualizing race in health economic models. A case study is analyzed to illustrate the value of the alternative conceptualization. The case study findings clearly document the importance of model stratification according to race. Moreover, the findings indicate that empirical results are improved when medical utilization models are refined in a way that reflects the unique experiences of the population that is studied. PMID:7721593

Learning to rank using user clicks and visual features for image retrieval.

PubMed

Yu, Jun; Tao, Dacheng; Wang, Meng; Rui, Yong

2015-04-01

The inconsistency between textual features and visual contents can cause poor image search results. To solve this problem, click features, which are more reliable than textual information in justifying the relevance between a query and clicked images, are adopted in image ranking model. However, the existing ranking model cannot integrate visual features, which are efficient in refining the click-based search results. In this paper, we propose a novel ranking model based on the learning to rank framework. Visual features and click features are simultaneously utilized to obtain the ranking model. Specifically, the proposed approach is based on large margin structured output learning and the visual consistency is integrated with the click features through a hypergraph regularizer term. In accordance with the fast alternating linearization method, we design a novel algorithm to optimize the objective function. This algorithm alternately minimizes two different approximations of the original objective function by keeping one function unchanged and linearizing the other. We conduct experiments on a large-scale dataset collected from the Microsoft Bing image search engine, and the results demonstrate that the proposed learning to rank models based on visual features and user clicks outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms.

Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

PubMed

Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

2009-03-01

This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

Development of an integrated economic and ecological framework for ecosystem-based fisheries management in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, D.; Hoagland, P.; Dalton, T. M.; Thunberg, E. M.

2012-09-01

We present an integrated economic-ecological framework designed to help assess the implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) in New England. We develop the framework by linking a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of a coastal economy to an end-to-end (E2E) model of a marine food web for Georges Bank. We focus on the New England region using coastal county economic data for a restricted set of industry sectors and marine ecological data for three top level trophic feeding guilds: planktivores, benthivores, and piscivores. We undertake numerical simulations to model the welfare effects of changes in alternative combinations of yields from feeding guilds and alternative manifestations of biological productivity. We estimate the economic and distributional effects of these alternative simulations across a range of consumer income levels. This framework could be used to extend existing methodologies for assessing the impacts on human communities of groundfish stock rebuilding strategies, such as those expected through the implementation of the sector management program in the US northeast fishery. We discuss other possible applications of and modifications and limitations to the framework.

Comparative Study of the Ride Quality of TRACV Suspension Alternatives

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-06-01

A linearized model of the pitch-heave dynamics of a Tracked Ram Air Cushion Vehicle is presented. This model is based on aerodynamic theory which has been verified by wind tunnel and towed model experiments. The vehicle is assumed to be equipped with...

Modeling and Analysis of Space Based Transceivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reinhart, Richard C.; Liebetreu, John; Moore, Michael S.; Price, Jeremy C.; Abbott, Ben

2005-01-01

This paper presents the tool chain, methodology, and initial results of a study to provide a thorough, objective, and quantitative analysis of the design alternatives for space Software Defined Radio (SDR) transceivers. The approach taken was to develop a set of models and tools for describing communications requirements, the algorithm resource requirements, the available hardware, and the alternative software architectures, and generate analysis data necessary to compare alternative designs. The Space Transceiver Analysis Tool (STAT) was developed to help users identify and select representative designs, calculate the analysis data, and perform a comparative analysis of the representative designs. The tool allows the design space to be searched quickly while permitting incremental refinement in regions of higher payoff.

Modeling and Analysis of Space Based Transceivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Michael S.; Price, Jeremy C.; Abbott, Ben; Liebetreu, John; Reinhart, Richard C.; Kacpura, Thomas J.

2007-01-01

This paper presents the tool chain, methodology, and initial results of a study to provide a thorough, objective, and quantitative analysis of the design alternatives for space Software Defined Radio (SDR) transceivers. The approach taken was to develop a set of models and tools for describing communications requirements, the algorithm resource requirements, the available hardware, and the alternative software architectures, and generate analysis data necessary to compare alternative designs. The Space Transceiver Analysis Tool (STAT) was developed to help users identify and select representative designs, calculate the analysis data, and perform a comparative analysis of the representative designs. The tool allows the design space to be searched quickly while permitting incremental refinement in regions of higher payoff.

Three-D Flow Analysis of the Alternate SSME HPOT TAD

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kubinski, Cheryl A.

1993-01-01

This paper describes the results of numerical flow analyses performed in support of design development of the Space Shuttle Main Engine Alternate High Pressure Oxidizer Turbine Turn-around duct (TAD). The flow domain has been modeled using a 3D, Navier-Stokes, general purpose flow solver. The goal of this effort is to achieve an alternate TAD exit flow distribution which closely matches that of the baseline configuration. 3D Navier Stokes CFD analyses were employed to evaluate numerous candidate geometry modifications to the TAD flowpath in order to achieve this goal. The design iterations are summarized, as well as a description of the computational model, numerical results and the conclusions based on these calculations.

A radiative seesaw model with higher order terms under an alternative U(1)B-L

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomura, Takaaki; Okada, Hiroshi

2018-06-01

We propose a model based on an alternative U(1) B - L gauge symmetry with 5 dimensional operators in the Lagrangian, and we construct the neutrino masses at one-loop level, and discuss lepton flavor violations, dark matter, and the effective number of neutrino species due to two massless particles in our model. Then we search allowed region to satisfy the current experimental data of neutrino oscillation and lepton flavor violations without conflict of several constraints such as stability of dark matter and the effective number of neutrino species, depending on normal hierarchy and inverted one.

Assessing the Health of LiFePO4 Traction Batteries through Monotonic Echo State Networks

PubMed Central

Anseán, David; Otero, José; Couso, Inés

2017-01-01

A soft sensor is presented that approximates certain health parameters of automotive rechargeable batteries from on-vehicle measurements of current and voltage. The sensor is based on a model of the open circuit voltage curve. This last model is implemented through monotonic neural networks and estimate over-potentials arising from the evolution in time of the Lithium concentration in the electrodes of the battery. The proposed soft sensor is able to exploit the information contained in operational records of the vehicle better than the alternatives, this being particularly true when the charge or discharge currents are between moderate and high. The accuracy of the neural model has been compared to different alternatives, including data-driven statistical models, first principle-based models, fuzzy observers and other recurrent neural networks with different topologies. It is concluded that monotonic echo state networks can outperform well established first-principle models. The algorithms have been validated with automotive Li-FePO4 cells. PMID:29267219

Coupled local facilitation and global hydrologic inhibition drive landscape geometry in a patterned peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, S.; Kaplan, D. A.; Casey, S.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

2015-05-01

Self-organized landscape patterning can arise in response to multiple processes. Discriminating among alternative patterning mechanisms, particularly where experimental manipulations are untenable, requires process-based models. Previous modeling studies have attributed patterning in the Everglades (Florida, USA) to sediment redistribution and anisotropic soil hydraulic properties. In this work, we tested an alternate theory, the self-organizing-canal (SOC) hypothesis, by developing a cellular automata model that simulates pattern evolution via local positive feedbacks (i.e., facilitation) coupled with a global negative feedback based on hydrology. The model is forced by global hydroperiod that drives stochastic transitions between two patch types: ridge (higher elevation) and slough (lower elevation). We evaluated model performance using multiple criteria based on six statistical and geostatistical properties observed in reference portions of the Everglades landscape: patch density, patch anisotropy, semivariogram ranges, power-law scaling of ridge areas, perimeter area fractal dimension, and characteristic pattern wavelength. Model results showed strong statistical agreement with reference landscapes, but only when anisotropically acting local facilitation was coupled with hydrologic global feedback, for which several plausible mechanisms exist. Critically, the model correctly generated fractal landscapes that had no characteristic pattern wavelength, supporting the invocation of global rather than scale-specific negative feedbacks.

Coupled local facilitation and global hydrologic inhibition drive landscape geometry in a patterned peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, S.; Kaplan, D. A.; Casey, S.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

2015-01-01

Self-organized landscape patterning can arise in response to multiple processes. Discriminating among alternative patterning mechanisms, particularly where experimental manipulations are untenable, requires process-based models. Previous modeling studies have attributed patterning in the Everglades (Florida, USA) to sediment redistribution and anisotropic soil hydraulic properties. In this work, we tested an alternate theory, the self-organizing canal (SOC) hypothesis, by developing a cellular automata model that simulates pattern evolution via local positive feedbacks (i.e., facilitation) coupled with a global negative feedback based on hydrology. The model is forced by global hydroperiod that drives stochastic transitions between two patch types: ridge (higher elevation) and slough (lower elevation). We evaluated model performance using multiple criteria based on six statistical and geostatistical properties observed in reference portions of the Everglades landscape: patch density, patch anisotropy, semivariogram ranges, power-law scaling of ridge areas, perimeter area fractal dimension, and characteristic pattern wavelength. Model results showed strong statistical agreement with reference landscapes, but only when anisotropically acting local facilitation was coupled with hydrologic global feedback, for which several plausible mechanisms exist. Critically, the model correctly generated fractal landscapes that had no characteristic pattern wavelength, supporting the invocation of global rather than scale-specific negative feedbacks.

Quantitative structure - mesothelioma potency model ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Cancer potencies of mineral and synthetic elongated particle (EP) mixtures, including asbestos fibers, are influenced by changes in fiber dose composition, bioavailability, and biodurability in combination with relevant cytotoxic dose-response relationships. A unique and comprehensive rat intra-pleural (IP) dose characterization data set with a wide variety of EP size, shape, crystallographic, chemical, and bio-durability properties facilitated extensive statistical analyses of 50 rat IP exposure test results for evaluation of alternative dose pleural mesothelioma response models. Utilizing logistic regression, maximum likelihood evaluations of thousands of alternative dose metrics based on hundreds of individual EP dimensional variations within each test sample, four major findings emerged: (1) data for simulations of short-term EP dose changes in vivo (mild acid leaching) provide superior predictions of tumor incidence compared to non-acid leached data; (2) sum of the EP surface areas (ÓSA) from these mildly acid-leached samples provides the optimum holistic dose response model; (3) progressive removal of dose associated with very short and/or thin EPs significantly degrades resultant ÓEP or ÓSA dose-based predictive model fits, as judged by Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC); and (4) alternative, biologically plausible model adjustments provide evidence for reduced potency of EPs with length/width (aspect) ratios 80 µm. Regar

An alternative model to distribute VO software to WLCG sites based on CernVM-FS: a prototype at PIC Tier1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanciotti, E.; Merino, G.; Bria, A.; Blomer, J.

2011-12-01

In a distributed computing model as WLCG the software of experiment specific application software has to be efficiently distributed to any site of the Grid. Application software is currently installed in a shared area of the site visible for all Worker Nodes (WNs) of the site through some protocol (NFS, AFS or other). The software is installed at the site by jobs which run on a privileged node of the computing farm where the shared area is mounted in write mode. This model presents several drawbacks which cause a non-negligible rate of job failure. An alternative model for software distribution based on the CERN Virtual Machine File System (CernVM-FS) has been tried at PIC, the Spanish Tierl site of WLCG. The test bed used and the results are presented in this paper.

Culture, Health, and Science: A Multidisciplinary Liberal Arts Alternative to the Public Health Major.

PubMed

Morgan, Lynn M; Knight, Sabina; Gubrium, Aline C

2016-01-01

Since the 2003 call by the Institute of Medicine to educate undergraduates in public health, various models have emerged for incorporating public health into the liberal arts and sciences. One model is a professionalized public health major that uses core public health competencies to prepare a workforce of health professionals. A second model offers a broad-based public health major rooted in liberal arts principles, resisting the utilitarian trend toward human capital formation. A third model resists even the label of "public health," preferring instead to introduce undergraduates to many ways of analyzing human health and healing. The multidisciplinary Culture, Health, and Science Program, based on six key commitments for preparing liberal arts students to analyze health and respond to global health challenges, is offered as an alternative to the public health major. © The Author(s) 2016.

Robust small area prediction for counts.

PubMed

Tzavidis, Nikos; Ranalli, M Giovanna; Salvati, Nicola; Dreassi, Emanuela; Chambers, Ray

2015-06-01

A new semiparametric approach to model-based small area prediction for counts is proposed and used for estimating the average number of visits to physicians for Health Districts in Central Italy. The proposed small area predictor can be viewed as an outlier robust alternative to the more commonly used empirical plug-in predictor that is based on a Poisson generalized linear mixed model with Gaussian random effects. Results from the real data application and from a simulation experiment confirm that the proposed small area predictor has good robustness properties and in some cases can be more efficient than alternative small area approaches. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Advancing complementary and alternative medicine through social network analysis and agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Frantz, Terrill L

2012-01-01

This paper introduces the contemporary perspectives and techniques of social network analysis (SNA) and agent-based modeling (ABM) and advocates applying them to advance various aspects of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). SNA and ABM are invaluable methods for representing, analyzing and projecting complex, relational, social phenomena; they provide both an insightful vantage point and a set of analytic tools that can be useful in a wide range of contexts. Applying these methods in the CAM context can aid the ongoing advances in the CAM field, in both its scientific aspects and in developing broader acceptance in associated stakeholder communities. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Alternative Fuels Data Center

Science.gov Websites

Alternative Fuel Vehicle (AFV) Tax Exemption New passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty base model price of $42,500 or less. The sales tax exemption applies to up to $32,000 of a vehicle's sold after June 15, 2015, 7,500, has been reached, and the sales tax exemption applies to vehicles

Alternating-Offers Protocol for Multi-issue Bilateral Negotiation in Semantic-Enabled Marketplaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragone, Azzurra; di Noia, Tommaso; di Sciascio, Eugenio; Donini, Francesco M.

We present a semantic-based approach to multi-issue bilateral negotiation for e-commerce. We use Description Logics to model advertisements, and relations among issues as axioms in a TBox. We then introduce a logic-based alternating-offers protocol, able to handle conflicting information, that merges non-standard reasoning services in Description Logics with utility thoery to find the most suitable agreements. We illustrate and motivate the theoretical framework, the logical language, and the negotiation protocol.

Behavioral momentum and resurgence: Effects of time in extinction and repeated resurgence tests

PubMed Central

Shahan, Timothy A.

2014-01-01

Resurgence is an increase in a previously extinguished operant response that occurs if an alternative reinforcement introduced during extinction is removed. Shahan and Sweeney (2011) developed a quantitative model of resurgence based on behavioral momentum theory that captures existing data well and predicts that resurgence should decrease as time in extinction and exposure to the alternative reinforcement increases. Two experiments tested this prediction. The data from Experiment 1 suggested that without a return to baseline, resurgence decreases with increased exposure to alternative reinforcement and to extinction of the target response. Experiment 2 tested the predictions of the model across two conditions, one with constant alternative reinforcement for five sessions, and the other with alternative reinforcement removed three times. In both conditions, the alternative reinforcement was removed for the final test session. Experiment 2 again demonstrated a decrease in relapse across repeated resurgence tests. Furthermore, comparably little resurgence was observed at the same time point in extinction in the final test, despite dissimilar previous exposures to alternative reinforcement removal. The quantitative model provided a good description of the observed data in both experiments. More broadly, these data suggest that increased exposure to extinction may be a successful strategy to reduce resurgence. The relationship between these data and existing tests of the effect of time in extinction on resurgence is discussed. PMID:23982985

Assessing the Reliability of Curriculum-Based Measurement: An Application of Latent Growth Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeo, Seungsoo; Kim, Dong-Il; Branum-Martin, Lee; Wayman, Miya Miura; Espin, Christine A.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the use of Latent Growth Modeling (LGM) as a method for estimating reliability of Curriculum-Based Measurement (CBM) progress-monitoring data. The LGM approach permits the error associated with each measure to differ at each time point, thus providing an alternative method for examining of the…

Copula based prediction models: an application to an aortic regurgitation study

PubMed Central

Kumar, Pranesh; Shoukri, Mohamed M

2007-01-01

Background: An important issue in prediction modeling of multivariate data is the measure of dependence structure. The use of Pearson's correlation as a dependence measure has several pitfalls and hence application of regression prediction models based on this correlation may not be an appropriate methodology. As an alternative, a copula based methodology for prediction modeling and an algorithm to simulate data are proposed. Methods: The method consists of introducing copulas as an alternative to the correlation coefficient commonly used as a measure of dependence. An algorithm based on the marginal distributions of random variables is applied to construct the Archimedean copulas. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to replicate datasets, estimate prediction model parameters and validate them using Lin's concordance measure. Results: We have carried out a correlation-based regression analysis on data from 20 patients aged 17–82 years on pre-operative and post-operative ejection fractions after surgery and estimated the prediction model: Post-operative ejection fraction = - 0.0658 + 0.8403 (Pre-operative ejection fraction); p = 0.0008; 95% confidence interval of the slope coefficient (0.3998, 1.2808). From the exploratory data analysis, it is noted that both the pre-operative and post-operative ejection fractions measurements have slight departures from symmetry and are skewed to the left. It is also noted that the measurements tend to be widely spread and have shorter tails compared to normal distribution. Therefore predictions made from the correlation-based model corresponding to the pre-operative ejection fraction measurements in the lower range may not be accurate. Further it is found that the best approximated marginal distributions of pre-operative and post-operative ejection fractions (using q-q plots) are gamma distributions. The copula based prediction model is estimated as: Post -operative ejection fraction = - 0.0933 + 0.8907 × (Pre-operative ejection fraction); p = 0.00008 ; 95% confidence interval for slope coefficient (0.4810, 1.3003). For both models differences in the predicted post-operative ejection fractions in the lower range of pre-operative ejection measurements are considerably different and prediction errors due to copula model are smaller. To validate the copula methodology we have re-sampled with replacement fifty independent bootstrap samples and have estimated concordance statistics 0.7722 (p = 0.0224) for the copula model and 0.7237 (p = 0.0604) for the correlation model. The predicted and observed measurements are concordant for both models. The estimates of accuracy components are 0.9233 and 0.8654 for copula and correlation models respectively. Conclusion: Copula-based prediction modeling is demonstrated to be an appropriate alternative to the conventional correlation-based prediction modeling since the correlation-based prediction models are not appropriate to model the dependence in populations with asymmetrical tails. Proposed copula-based prediction model has been validated using the independent bootstrap samples. PMID:17573974

Cost-effective management alternatives for Snake River Chinook salmon: a biological-economic synthesis.

PubMed

Halsing, David L; Moore, Michael R

2008-04-01

The mandate to increase endangered salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin of North America has created a complex, controversial resource-management issue. We constructed an integrated assessment model as a tool for analyzing biological-economic trade-offs in recovery of Snake River spring- and summer-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We merged 3 frameworks: a salmon-passage model to predict migration and survival of smolts; an age-structured matrix model to predict long-term population growth rates of salmon stocks; and a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine a set of least-cost management alternatives for achieving particular population growth rates. We assessed 6 individual salmon-management measures and 76 management alternatives composed of one or more measures. To reflect uncertainty, results were derived for different assumptions of effectiveness of smolt transport around dams. Removal of an estuarine predator, the Caspian Tern (Sterna caspia), was cost-effective and generally increased long-term population growth rates regardless of transport effectiveness. Elimination of adult salmon harvest had a similar effect over a range of its cost estimates. The specific management alternatives in the cost-effective set depended on assumptions about transport effectiveness. On the basis of recent estimates of smolt transport effectiveness, alternatives that discontinued transportation or breached dams were prevalent in the cost-effective set, whereas alternatives that maximized transportation dominated if transport effectiveness was relatively high. More generally, the analysis eliminated 80-90% of management alternatives from the cost-effective set. Application of our results to salmon management is limited by data availability and model assumptions, but these limitations can help guide research that addresses critical uncertainties and information. Our results thus demonstrate that linking biology and economics through integrated models can provide valuable tools for science-based policy and management.

Cost-effective management alternatives for Snake river chinook salmon: A biological-economic synthesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsing, D.L.; Moore, M.R.

2008-01-01

The mandate to increase endangered salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin of North America has created a complex, controversial resource-management issue. We constructed an integrated assessment model as a tool for analyzing biological-economic trade-offs in recovery of Snake River spring- and summer-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We merged 3 frameworks: a salmon-passage model to predict migration and survival of smolts; an age-structured matrix model to predict long-term population growth rates of salmon stocks; and a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine a set of least-cost management alternatives for achieving particular population growth rates. We assessed 6 individual salmon-management measures and 76 management alternatives composed of one or more measures. To reflect uncertainty, results were derived for different assumptions of effectiveness of smolt transport around dams. Removal of an estuarine predator, the Caspian Tern (Sterna caspia), was cost-effective and generally increased long-term population growth rates regardless of transport effectiveness. Elimination of adult salmon harvest had a similar effect over a range of its cost estimates. The specific management alternatives in the cost-effective set depended on assumptions about transport effectiveness. On the basis of recent estimates of smolt transport effectiveness, alternatives that discontinued transportation or breached dams were prevalent in the cost-effective set, whereas alternatives that maximized transportation dominated if transport effectiveness was relatively high. More generally, the analysis eliminated 80-90% of management alternatives from the cost-effective set. Application of our results to salmon management is limited by data availability and model assumptions, but these limitations can help guide research that addresses critical uncertainties and information. Our results thus demonstrate that linking biology and economics through integrated models can provide valuable tools for science-based policy and management.

Recommendation for a non-animal alternative to rat caries testing.

PubMed

Featherstone, John D B; Stookey, George K; Kaminski, Michael A; Faller, Robert V

2011-10-01

As a requirement of the Food & Drug Administration's final monograph on "Anticaries drug products for over-the-counter human use", the toothpaste industry has been conducting animal caries tests on every fluoride-containing toothpaste introduced into the U.S. market since 1996. The practice of testing in animals, although required by law, is in stark conflict with the corporate policy of many U.S. and global toothpaste manufacturers, in which, if possible, alternatives to animal testing are utilized. A provision does exist within the regulation which allows the use of an alternative method to demonstrate efficacy. However, to take advantage of this provision, a petition must be submitted to the FDA and in this petition data demonstrating the alternative provides results of "equivalent accuracy" must be included. After many years of research, model development and model comparisons, we have identified one particular laboratory model that demonstrated excellent correlation with the currently accepted animal caries models. This model, known as the Featherstone pH cycling model, is discussed in this paper. The Featherstone pH cycling model has been shown to produce results of equivalent accuracy to the animal caries model by: (1) demonstrating a clinically relevant fluoride dose response similar to that shown in the animal caries model (including 1100 ppm F, 250 ppm F and placebo); (2) demonstrating similar results to the animal caries model for clinically proven dentifrice formulations relative to positive and negative controls; (3) demonstrating discriminating ability in strong agreement with the animal caries model for differentiating between a dentifrice formulation with attenuated fluoride activity and a USP standard; and (4) providing a clinically relevant representation of the caries process, as demonstrated by orthodontic banding studies. In addition, the model sufficiently addresses both salivary and abrasive/anticalculus agent interference concerns. For more than 50 years, fluoride has been the first defense in the fight against dental caries. The clinical effectiveness of fluoride is well accepted and documented extensively in the literature. The mechanism through which fluoride provides its benefit is very straightforward and well understood. The proposed laboratory model effectively simulates the effect of the caries process and has been shown to demonstrate equivalent accuracy to animal caries. This indicates that there are strong scientific grounds for the use of this model as an alternative to the animal caries test. Based on the strength of the data and the correlations noted between the two models, we recommend that the scientific community and the toothpaste industry broadly accept the Featherstone laboratory pH cycling model as an appropriate alternative to animal testing, particularly for ionic fluoride based dentifrices.

Physical-chemical properties and evaluative fate modelling of 'emerging' and 'novel' brominated and organophosphorus flame retardants in the indoor and outdoor environment.

PubMed

Liagkouridis, Ioannis; Cousins, Anna Palm; Cousins, Ian T

2015-08-15

Several groups of flame retardants (FRs) have entered the market in recent years as replacements for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), but little is known about their physical-chemical properties or their environmental transport and fate. Here we make best estimates of the physical-chemical properties and undertake evaluative modelling assessments (indoors and outdoors) for 35 so-called 'novel' and 'emerging' brominated flame retardants (BFRs) and 22 organophosphorus flame retardants (OPFRs). A QSPR (Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship) based technique is used to reduce uncertainty in physical-chemical properties and to aid property selection for modelling, but it is evident that more, high quality property data are required for improving future assessments. Evaluative modelling results show that many of the alternative FRs, mainly alternative BFRs and some of the halogenated OPFRs, behave similarly to the PBDEs both indoors and outdoors. These alternative FRs exhibit high overall persistence (Pov), long-range transport potential (LRTP) and POP-like behaviour and on that basis cannot be regarded as suitable replacements to PBDEs. A group of low molecular weight alternative BFRs and non-halogenated OPFRs show a potentially better environmental performance based on Pov and LRTP metrics. Results must be interpreted with caution though since there are significant uncertainties and limited data to allow for thorough model evaluation. Additional environmental parameters such as toxicity and bioaccumulative potential as well as functionality issues should be considered in an industrial substitution strategy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Model-based approaches to deal with detectability: a comment on Hutto (2016)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marques, Tiago A.; Thomas, Len; Kéry, Marc; Buckland, Steve T.; Borchers, David L.; Rexstad, Eric; Fewster, Rachel M.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Royle, Andy; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Handel, Colleen M.; Pavlacky, David C.; Camp, Richard J.

2017-01-01

In a recent paper, Hutto (2016a) challenges the need to account for detectability when interpreting data from point counts. A number of issues with model-based approaches to deal with detectability are presented, and an alternative suggested: surveying an area around each point over which detectability is assumed certain. The article contains a number of false claims and errors of logic, and we address these here. We provide suggestions about appropriate uses of distance sampling and occupancy modeling, arising from an intersection of design- and model-based inference.

Anticipating surprise: Using agent-based alternative futures simulation modeling to identify and map surprising fires in the Willamette Valley, Oregon USA

Treesearch

David Hulse; Allan Branscomb; Chris Enright; Bart Johnson; Cody Evers; John Bolte; Alan Ager

2016-01-01

This article offers a literature-supported conception and empirically grounded analysis of surprise by exploring the capacity of scenario-driven, agent-based simulation models to better anticipate it. Building on literature-derived definitions and typologies of surprise, and using results from a modeled 81,000 ha study area in a wildland-urban interface of western...

Quaternion-Based Signal Analysis for Motor Imagery Classification from Electroencephalographic Signals.

PubMed

Batres-Mendoza, Patricia; Montoro-Sanjose, Carlos R; Guerra-Hernandez, Erick I; Almanza-Ojeda, Dora L; Rostro-Gonzalez, Horacio; Romero-Troncoso, Rene J; Ibarra-Manzano, Mario A

2016-03-05

Quaternions can be used as an alternative to model the fundamental patterns of electroencephalographic (EEG) signals in the time domain. Thus, this article presents a new quaternion-based technique known as quaternion-based signal analysis (QSA) to represent EEG signals obtained using a brain-computer interface (BCI) device to detect and interpret cognitive activity. This quaternion-based signal analysis technique can extract features to represent brain activity related to motor imagery accurately in various mental states. Experimental tests in which users where shown visual graphical cues related to left and right movements were used to collect BCI-recorded signals. These signals were then classified using decision trees (DT), support vector machine (SVM) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) techniques. The quantitative analysis of the classifiers demonstrates that this technique can be used as an alternative in the EEG-signal modeling phase to identify mental states.

Quaternion-Based Signal Analysis for Motor Imagery Classification from Electroencephalographic Signals

PubMed Central

Batres-Mendoza, Patricia; Montoro-Sanjose, Carlos R.; Guerra-Hernandez, Erick I.; Almanza-Ojeda, Dora L.; Rostro-Gonzalez, Horacio; Romero-Troncoso, Rene J.; Ibarra-Manzano, Mario A.

2016-01-01

Quaternions can be used as an alternative to model the fundamental patterns of electroencephalographic (EEG) signals in the time domain. Thus, this article presents a new quaternion-based technique known as quaternion-based signal analysis (QSA) to represent EEG signals obtained using a brain-computer interface (BCI) device to detect and interpret cognitive activity. This quaternion-based signal analysis technique can extract features to represent brain activity related to motor imagery accurately in various mental states. Experimental tests in which users where shown visual graphical cues related to left and right movements were used to collect BCI-recorded signals. These signals were then classified using decision trees (DT), support vector machine (SVM) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) techniques. The quantitative analysis of the classifiers demonstrates that this technique can be used as an alternative in the EEG-signal modeling phase to identify mental states. PMID:26959029

Significance Testing in Confirmatory Factor Analytic Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khattab, Ali-Maher; Hocevar, Dennis

Traditionally, confirmatory factor analytic models are tested against a null model of total independence. Using randomly generated factors in a matrix of 46 aptitude tests, this approach is shown to be unlikely to reject even random factors. An alternative null model, based on a single general factor, is suggested. In addition, an index of model…

Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

2012-12-01

The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other options. The over-arching Study Manager provides a graphical tool to create combinations of future supply scenarios, demand scenarios, infrastructure and operating policy alternatives; each scenario is executed as an ensemble of RiverWare runs, driven by the hydrologic supply. The Study Manager sets up and manages multiple executions on multi-core hardware. The sizeable are typically direct model outputs, or post-processed indicators of performance based on model outputs. Post processing statistical analysis of the outputs are possible using the Graphical Policy Analysis Tool or other statistical packages. Several Basin Studies undertaken have used RiverWare to evaluate future scenarios. The Colorado River Basin Study, the most complex and extensive to date, has taken advantage of these tools and techniques to generate supply scenarios, produce alternative demand scenarios and to set up and execute the many combinations of supplies, demands, policies, and infrastructure alternatives. The tools and techniques will be described with example applications.

AAC Intervention as an Immersion Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dodd, Janet L.; Gorey, Megan

2014-01-01

Augmentative and alternative communication based interventions support individuals with complex communication needs in becoming effective and efficient communicators. However, there is often a disconnect between language models, communication opportunities, and desired intervention outcomes in the intervention process. This article outlines a…

Longitudinal tests of competing factor structures for the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale: traits, ephemeral artifacts, and stable response styles.

PubMed

Marsh, Herbert W; Scalas, L Francesca; Nagengast, Benjamin

2010-06-01

Self-esteem, typically measured by the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSE), is one of the most widely studied constructs in psychology. Nevertheless, there is broad agreement that a simple unidimensional factor model, consistent with the original design and typical application in applied research, does not provide an adequate explanation of RSE responses. However, there is no clear agreement about what alternative model is most appropriate-or even a clear rationale for how to test competing interpretations. Three alternative interpretations exist: (a) 2 substantively important trait factors (positive and negative self-esteem), (b) 1 trait factor and ephemeral method artifacts associated with positively or negatively worded items, or (c) 1 trait factor and stable response-style method factors associated with item wording. We have posited 8 alternative models and structural equation model tests based on longitudinal data (4 waves of data across 8 years with a large, representative sample of adolescents). Longitudinal models provide no support for the unidimensional model, undermine support for the 2-factor model, and clearly refute claims that wording effects are ephemeral, but they provide good support for models positing 1 substantive (self-esteem) factor and response-style method factors that are stable over time. This longitudinal methodological approach has not only resolved these long-standing issues in self-esteem research but also has broad applicability to most psychological assessments based on self-reports with a mix of positively and negatively worded items.

The Dependent Poisson Race Model and Modeling Dependence in Conjoint Choice Experiments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruan, Shiling; MacEachern, Steven N.; Otter, Thomas; Dean, Angela M.

2008-01-01

Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…

Info-gap robust-satisficing model of foraging behavior: do foragers optimize or satisfice?

PubMed

Carmel, Yohay; Ben-Haim, Yakov

2005-11-01

In this note we compare two mathematical models of foraging that reflect two competing theories of animal behavior: optimizing and robust satisficing. The optimal-foraging model is based on the marginal value theorem (MVT). The robust-satisficing model developed here is an application of info-gap decision theory. The info-gap robust-satisficing model relates to the same circumstances described by the MVT. We show how these two alternatives translate into specific predictions that at some points are quite disparate. We test these alternative predictions against available data collected in numerous field studies with a large number of species from diverse taxonomic groups. We show that a large majority of studies appear to support the robust-satisficing model and reject the optimal-foraging model.

Model-based clustering for RNA-seq data.

PubMed

Si, Yaqing; Liu, Peng; Li, Pinghua; Brutnell, Thomas P

2014-01-15

RNA-seq technology has been widely adopted as an attractive alternative to microarray-based methods to study global gene expression. However, robust statistical tools to analyze these complex datasets are still lacking. By grouping genes with similar expression profiles across treatments, cluster analysis provides insight into gene functions and networks, and hence is an important technique for RNA-seq data analysis. In this manuscript, we derive clustering algorithms based on appropriate probability models for RNA-seq data. An expectation-maximization algorithm and another two stochastic versions of expectation-maximization algorithms are described. In addition, a strategy for initialization based on likelihood is proposed to improve the clustering algorithms. Moreover, we present a model-based hybrid-hierarchical clustering method to generate a tree structure that allows visualization of relationships among clusters as well as flexibility of choosing the number of clusters. Results from both simulation studies and analysis of a maize RNA-seq dataset show that our proposed methods provide better clustering results than alternative methods such as the K-means algorithm and hierarchical clustering methods that are not based on probability models. An R package, MBCluster.Seq, has been developed to implement our proposed algorithms. This R package provides fast computation and is publicly available at http://www.r-project.org

Analysis of students’ creative thinking level in problem solving based on national council of teachers of mathematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobri; Suharto; Rifqi Naja, Ahmad

2018-04-01

This research aims to determine students’ creative thinking level in problem solving based on NCTM in function subject. The research type is descriptive with qualitative approach. Data collection methods which were used are test and interview. Creative thinking level in problem solving based on NCTM indicators consists of (1) Make mathematical model from a contextual problem and solve the problem, (2) Solve problem using various possible alternatives, (3) Find new alternative(s) to solve the problem, (4) Determine the most efficient and effective alternative for that problem, (5) Review and correct mistake(s) on the process of problem solving. Result of the research showed that 10 students categorized in very satisfying level, 23 students categorized in satisfying level and 1 students categorized in less satisfying level. Students in very satisfying level meet all indicators, students in satisfying level meet first, second, fourth, and fifth indicator, while students in less satisfying level only meet first and fifth indicator.

An Automatic Image-Based Modelling Method Applied to Forensic Infography

PubMed Central

Zancajo-Blazquez, Sandra; Gonzalez-Aguilera, Diego; Gonzalez-Jorge, Higinio; Hernandez-Lopez, David

2015-01-01

This paper presents a new method based on 3D reconstruction from images that demonstrates the utility and integration of close-range photogrammetry and computer vision as an efficient alternative to modelling complex objects and scenarios of forensic infography. The results obtained confirm the validity of the method compared to other existing alternatives as it guarantees the following: (i) flexibility, permitting work with any type of camera (calibrated and non-calibrated, smartphone or tablet) and image (visible, infrared, thermal, etc.); (ii) automation, allowing the reconstruction of three-dimensional scenarios in the absence of manual intervention, and (iii) high quality results, sometimes providing higher resolution than modern laser scanning systems. As a result, each ocular inspection of a crime scene with any camera performed by the scientific police can be transformed into a scaled 3d model. PMID:25793628

Time dependent data, time independent models: challenges of updating Australia's National Seismic Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffin, J.; Clark, D.; Allen, T.; Ghasemi, H.; Leonard, M.

2017-12-01

Standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) simulates earthquake occurrence as a time-independent process. However paleoseismic studies in slowly deforming regions such as Australia show compelling evidence that large earthquakes on individual faults cluster within active periods, followed by long periods of quiescence. Therefore the instrumental earthquake catalog, which forms the basis of PSHA earthquake recurrence calculations, may only capture the state of the system over the period of the catalog. Together this means that data informing our PSHA may not be truly time-independent. This poses challenges in developing PSHAs for typical design probabilities (such as 10% in 50 years probability of exceedance): Is the present state observed through the instrumental catalog useful for estimating the next 50 years of earthquake hazard? Can paleo-earthquake data, that shows variations in earthquake frequency over time-scales of 10,000s of years or more, be robustly included in such PSHA models? Can a single PSHA logic tree be useful over a range of different probabilities of exceedance? In developing an updated PSHA for Australia, decadal-scale data based on instrumental earthquake catalogs (i.e. alternative area based source models and smoothed seismicity models) is integrated with paleo-earthquake data through inclusion of a fault source model. Use of time-dependent non-homogeneous Poisson models allows earthquake clustering to be modeled on fault sources with sufficient paleo-earthquake data. This study assesses the performance of alternative models by extracting decade-long segments of the instrumental catalog, developing earthquake probability models based on the remaining catalog, and testing performance against the extracted component of the catalog. Although this provides insights into model performance over the short-term, for longer timescales it is recognised that model choice is subject to considerable epistemic uncertainty. Therefore a formal expert elicitation process has been used to assign weights to alternative models for the 2018 update to Australia's national PSHA.

Retrenchment in Education: Hierarchical Decision Models for Instructional Program Termination, District Consolidations and School Closures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wholeben, Brent Edward

A number of key issues facing elementary, secondary, and postsecondary educational administrators during retrenchment require a hierarchical decision-modeling approach. This paper identifies and discusses the use of a hierarchical multiple-alternatives modeling formulation (computer-based) that compares and evaluates a group of solution…

MOAtox: A comprehensive mode of action and acute aquatic toxicity database for predictive model development (SETAC abstract)

EPA Science Inventory

The mode of toxic action (MOA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity and as an alternative to chemical class-based predictive toxicity modeling. However, the development of quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) and other models has been limit...

MOAtox: A Comprehensive Mode of Action and Acute Aquatic Toxicity Database for Predictive Model Development

EPA Science Inventory

tThe mode of toxic action (MOA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity andas an alternative to chemical class-based predictive toxicity modeling. However, the development ofquantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) and other models has been limite...

Re-Conceptualizing Intimacy and Distance in Instructional Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ketterer, John J.

2006-01-01

The idea that distance education lacks intimacy and is therefore inferior is based on an embedded metaphor that sustains a restricted and limiting mental model of ideal instruction. The authors analyze alternative conceptualizations of intimacy, space, and place as factors in the development of effective instructional models. They predict that the…

Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

2000-01-01

Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

Design Mining Interacting Wind Turbines.

PubMed

Preen, Richard J; Bull, Larry

2016-01-01

An initial study has recently been presented of surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms used to design vertical-axis wind turbines wherein candidate prototypes are evaluated under fan-generated wind conditions after being physically instantiated by a 3D printer. Unlike other approaches, such as computational fluid dynamics simulations, no mathematical formulations were used and no model assumptions were made. This paper extends that work by exploring alternative surrogate modelling and evolutionary techniques. The accuracy of various modelling algorithms used to estimate the fitness of evaluated individuals from the initial experiments is compared. The effect of temporally windowing surrogate model training samples is explored. A surrogate-assisted approach based on an enhanced local search is introduced; and alternative coevolution collaboration schemes are examined.

Modeling and Simulating Passenger Behavior for a Station Closure in a Rail Transit Network

PubMed Central

Yin, Haodong; Han, Baoming; Li, Dewei; Wu, Jianjun; Sun, Huijun

2016-01-01

A station closure is an abnormal operational situation in which the entrances or exits of a rail transit station have to be closed for some time due to an unexpected incident. A novel approach is developed to estimate the impacts of the alternative station closure scenarios on both passenger behavioral choices at the individual level and passenger demand at the disaggregate level in a rail transit network. Therefore, the contributions of this study are two-fold: (1) A basic passenger behavior optimization model is mathematically constructed based on 0–1 integer programming to describe passengers’ responses to alternative origin station closure scenarios and destination station closure scenarios; this model also considers the availability of multi-mode transportation and the uncertain duration of the station closure; (2) An integrated solution algorithm based on the passenger simulation is developed to solve the proposed model and to estimate the effects of a station closure on passenger demand in a rail transit network. Furthermore, 13 groups of numerical experiments based on the Beijing rail transit network are performed as case studies with 2,074,267 records of smart card data. The comparisons of the model outputs and the manual survey show that the accuracy of our proposed behavior optimization model is approximately 80%. The results also show that our model can be used to capture the passenger behavior and to quantitatively estimate the effects of alternative closure scenarios on passenger flow demand for the rail transit network. Moreover, the closure duration and its overestimation greatly influence the individual behavioral choices of the affected passengers and the passenger demand. Furthermore, if the rail transit operator can more accurately estimate the closure duration (namely, as g approaches 1), the impact of the closure can be somewhat mitigated. PMID:27935963

Modeling and Simulating Passenger Behavior for a Station Closure in a Rail Transit Network.

PubMed

Yin, Haodong; Han, Baoming; Li, Dewei; Wu, Jianjun; Sun, Huijun

2016-01-01

A station closure is an abnormal operational situation in which the entrances or exits of a rail transit station have to be closed for some time due to an unexpected incident. A novel approach is developed to estimate the impacts of the alternative station closure scenarios on both passenger behavioral choices at the individual level and passenger demand at the disaggregate level in a rail transit network. Therefore, the contributions of this study are two-fold: (1) A basic passenger behavior optimization model is mathematically constructed based on 0-1 integer programming to describe passengers' responses to alternative origin station closure scenarios and destination station closure scenarios; this model also considers the availability of multi-mode transportation and the uncertain duration of the station closure; (2) An integrated solution algorithm based on the passenger simulation is developed to solve the proposed model and to estimate the effects of a station closure on passenger demand in a rail transit network. Furthermore, 13 groups of numerical experiments based on the Beijing rail transit network are performed as case studies with 2,074,267 records of smart card data. The comparisons of the model outputs and the manual survey show that the accuracy of our proposed behavior optimization model is approximately 80%. The results also show that our model can be used to capture the passenger behavior and to quantitatively estimate the effects of alternative closure scenarios on passenger flow demand for the rail transit network. Moreover, the closure duration and its overestimation greatly influence the individual behavioral choices of the affected passengers and the passenger demand. Furthermore, if the rail transit operator can more accurately estimate the closure duration (namely, as g approaches 1), the impact of the closure can be somewhat mitigated.

A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

2018-01-01

Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior distributions in such approaches.

Inference of alternative splicing from RNA-Seq data with probabilistic splice graphs

PubMed Central

LeGault, Laura H.; Dewey, Colin N.

2013-01-01

Motivation: Alternative splicing and other processes that allow for different transcripts to be derived from the same gene are significant forces in the eukaryotic cell. RNA-Seq is a promising technology for analyzing alternative transcripts, as it does not require prior knowledge of transcript structures or genome sequences. However, analysis of RNA-Seq data in the presence of genes with large numbers of alternative transcripts is currently challenging due to efficiency, identifiability and representation issues. Results: We present RNA-Seq models and associated inference algorithms based on the concept of probabilistic splice graphs, which alleviate these issues. We prove that our models are often identifiable and demonstrate that our inference methods for quantification and differential processing detection are efficient and accurate. Availability: Software implementing our methods is available at http://deweylab.biostat.wisc.edu/psginfer. Contact: cdewey@biostat.wisc.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:23846746

An Alternative Grading Tool for Enhancing Assessment Practice and Quality Assurance in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grainger, Peter; Weir, Katie

2016-01-01

Assessing student learning in university courses is commonly done using a rubric that arranges the assessment criteria and standards descriptors in a matrix style or grid format. This paper introduces an alternative style of grading tool known as the continua model of a guide to making judgements, which arranges assessment criteria based on a…

Preparing Adolescents for Success in School: A School-Based Indicated Prevention Model for Adolescents in the Alternative High School Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Donnie W.; McCuller, William J.; Bisesi, Lorrie; Tanamly, Susie; Sim, Tiffanie; Kavich, Julia-Anna

2004-01-01

Adolescents enrolled in alternative school settings evidence risk behaviors at a higher rate compared to students attending regular high schools. Histories of substance use, juvenile delinquency, high school expulsion, poor school attendance, and HIV-risk behaviors are typical. These youth are particularly vulnerable to HIV-risk behaviors and…

A Comparison of Attitude toward School Subjects and Achievement in an Alternative and Traditional Elementary School.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rasberry, Sandra; Turner, James S.

The purpose of this study was to compare students enrolled in an alternative school with students in a traditional school on the bases of academic achievement and attitudes toward school subjects. The subjects were 33 sixth-grade students who attended an open education school modeled after the British infant school. The control group consisted of…

Power Enhancement in High Dimensional Cross-Sectional Tests

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Yao, Jiawei

2016-01-01

We propose a novel technique to boost the power of testing a high-dimensional vector H : θ = 0 against sparse alternatives where the null hypothesis is violated only by a couple of components. Existing tests based on quadratic forms such as the Wald statistic often suffer from low powers due to the accumulation of errors in estimating high-dimensional parameters. More powerful tests for sparse alternatives such as thresholding and extreme-value tests, on the other hand, require either stringent conditions or bootstrap to derive the null distribution and often suffer from size distortions due to the slow convergence. Based on a screening technique, we introduce a “power enhancement component”, which is zero under the null hypothesis with high probability, but diverges quickly under sparse alternatives. The proposed test statistic combines the power enhancement component with an asymptotically pivotal statistic, and strengthens the power under sparse alternatives. The null distribution does not require stringent regularity conditions, and is completely determined by that of the pivotal statistic. As specific applications, the proposed methods are applied to testing the factor pricing models and validating the cross-sectional independence in panel data models. PMID:26778846

a New Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model Based on the Combination of Non-Additive Fuzzy Ahp, Choquet Integral and Sugeno λ-MEASURE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadi, S.; Samiei, M.; Salari, H. R.; Karami, N.

2017-09-01

This paper proposes a new model for multi-criteria evaluation under uncertain condition. In this model we consider the interaction between criteria as one of the most challenging issues especially in the presence of uncertainty. In this case usual pairwise comparisons and weighted sum cannot be used to calculate the importance of criteria and to aggregate them. Our model is based on the combination of non-additive fuzzy linguistic preference relation AHP (FLPRAHP), Choquet integral and Sugeno λ-measure. The proposed model capture fuzzy preferences of users and fuzzy values of criteria and uses Sugeno λ -measure to determine the importance of criteria and their interaction. Then, integrating Choquet integral and FLPRAHP, all the interaction between criteria are taken in to account with least number of comparison and the final score for each alternative is determined. So we would model a comprehensive set of interactions between criteria that can lead us to more reliable result. An illustrative example presents the effectiveness and capability of the proposed model to evaluate different alternatives in a multi-criteria decision problem.

Alternative Bio-Based Solvents for Extraction of Fat and Oils: Solubility Prediction, Global Yield, Extraction Kinetics, Chemical Composition and Cost of Manufacturing

PubMed Central

Sicaire, Anne-Gaëlle; Vian, Maryline; Fine, Frédéric; Joffre, Florent; Carré, Patrick; Tostain, Sylvain; Chemat, Farid

2015-01-01

The present study was designed to evaluate the performance of alternative bio-based solvents, more especially 2-methyltetrahydrofuran, obtained from crop’s byproducts for the substitution of petroleum solvents such as hexane in the extraction of fat and oils for food (edible oil) and non-food (bio fuel) applications. First a solvent selection as well as an evaluation of the performance was made with Hansen Solubility Parameters and the COnductor-like Screening MOdel for Realistic Solvation (COSMO-RS) simulations. Experiments were performed on rapeseed oil extraction at laboratory and pilot plant scale for the determination of lipid yields, extraction kinetics, diffusion modeling, and complete lipid composition in term of fatty acids and micronutrients (sterols, tocopherols and tocotrienols). Finally, economic and energetic evaluations of the process were conducted to estimate the cost of manufacturing using 2-methyltetrahydrofuran (MeTHF) as alternative solvent compared to hexane as petroleum solvent. PMID:25884332

Mourning dove hunting regulation strategy based on annual harvest statistics and banding data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Otis, D.L.

2006-01-01

Although managers should strive to base game bird harvest management strategies on mechanistic population models, monitoring programs required to build and continuously update these models may not be in place. Alternatively, If estimates of total harvest and harvest rates are available, then population estimates derived from these harvest data can serve as the basis for making hunting regulation decisions based on population growth rates derived from these estimates. I present a statistically rigorous approach for regulation decision-making using a hypothesis-testing framework and an assumed framework of 3 hunting regulation alternatives. I illustrate and evaluate the technique with historical data on the mid-continent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population. I evaluate the statistical properties of the hypothesis-testing framework using the best available data on mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). I use these results to discuss practical implementation of the technique as an interim harvest strategy for mourning doves until reliable mechanistic population models and associated monitoring programs are developed.

An alternative model for a partially coherent elliptical dark hollow beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xu; Wang, Fei; Cai, Yangjian

2011-04-01

An alternative theoretical model named partially coherent hollow elliptical Gaussian beam (HEGB) is proposed to describe a partially coherent beam with an elliptical dark hollow profile. Explicit expression for the propagation factors of a partially coherent HEGB is derived. Based on the generalized Collins formula, analytical formulae for the cross-spectral density and mean-squared beam width of a partially coherent HEGB, propagating through a paraxial ABCD optical system, are derived. Propagation properties of a partially coherent HEGB in free space are studied as a numerical example.

Long-Lived Plasma Formations in the Atmosphere as an Alternative Energy Source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, M. S.; Mekhdieva, G. Sh.; Agamalieva, L. A.

2018-01-01

A model of a stable plasma formation, based on radial quantum oscillations of charged particles, is discussed. The given plasmoid is described with the help of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. A new phenomenon of effective attraction between oscillating charged particles is considered within the framework of the proposed model. The possible existence of a composite plasma structure is also discussed. Hypotheses about using the obtained results to describe natural long-lived plasma formations which can serve as alternative energy sources are advanced.

A Simulation Study of Methods for Selecting Subgroup-Specific Doses in Phase I Trials

PubMed Central

Morita, Satoshi; Thall, Peter F.; Takeda, Kentaro

2016-01-01

Summary Patient heterogeneity may complicate dose-finding in phase I clinical trials if the dose-toxicity curves differ between subgroups. Conducting separate trials within subgroups may lead to infeasibly small sample sizes in subgroups having low prevalence. Alternatively, it is not obvious how to conduct a single trial while accounting for heterogeneity. To address this problem, we consider a generalization of the continual reassessment method (O’Quigley, et al., 1990) based on a hierarchical Bayesian dose-toxicity model that borrows strength between subgroups under the assumption that the subgroups are exchangeable. We evaluate a design using this model that includes subgroup-specific dose selection and safety rules. A simulation study is presented that includes comparison of this method to three alternative approaches, based on non-hierarchical models, that make different types of assumptions about within-subgroup dose-toxicity curves. The simulations show that the hierarchical model-based method is recommended in settings where the dose-toxicity curves are exchangeable between subgroups. We present practical guidelines for application, and provide computer programs for trial simulation and conduct. PMID:28111916

Using Quartile-Quartile Lines as Linear Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gordon, Sheldon P.

2015-01-01

This article introduces the notion of the quartile-quartile line as an alternative to the regression line and the median-median line to produce a linear model based on a set of data. It is based on using the first and third quartiles of a set of (x, y) data. Dynamic spreadsheets are used as exploratory tools to compare the different approaches and…

Lawrence Children's Health Project. A Demonstration of a Collaborative Brokering Model and School-Based EPSDT. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Himes, John H.; And Others

The Lawrence (Massachusetts) Children's Health Project (LCHP) was a demonstration project consisting of an alternative approach to providing health care to children, many of whom were not receiving health services. The project was carried out by the Merrimack Education Center and focused on a school-based model for Early Periodic Screening,…

Genomic selection models double the accuracy of predicted breeding values for bacterial cold water disease resistance compared to a traditional pedigree-based model in rainbow trout aquaculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Previously we have shown that bacterial cold water disease (BCWD) resistance in rainbow trout can be improved using traditional family-based selection, but progress has been limited to exploiting only between-family genetic variation. Genomic selection (GS) is a new alternative enabling exploitation...

Surface metrics: An alternative to patch metrics for the quantification of landscape structure

Treesearch

Kevin McGarigal; Sermin Tagil; Samuel A. Cushman

2009-01-01

Modern landscape ecology is based on the patch mosaic paradigm, in which landscapes are conceptualized and analyzed as mosaics of discrete patches. While this model has been widely successful, there are many situations where it is more meaningful to model landscape structure based on continuous rather than discrete spatial heterogeneity. The growing field of surface...

A Model of Small-Group Problem-Based Learning in Pharmacy Education: Teaching in the Clinical Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khumsikiew, Jeerisuda; Donsamak, Sisira; Saeteaw, Manit

2015-01-01

Problem-based Learning (PBL) is an alternate method of instruction that incorporates basic elements of cognitive learning theory. Colleges of pharmacy use PBL to aid anticipated learning outcomes and practice competencies for pharmacy student. The purpose of this study were to implement and evaluate a model of small group PBL for 5th year pharmacy…

Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states.

PubMed

Staver, A Carla; Archibald, Sally; Levin, Simon

2011-05-01

Savannas are known as ecosystems with tree cover below climate-defined equilibrium values. However, a predictive framework for understanding constraints on tree cover is lacking. We present (a) a spatially extensive analysis of tree cover and fire distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, and (b) a model, based on empirical results, demonstrating that savanna and forest may be alternative stable states in parts of Africa, with implications for understanding savanna distributions. Tree cover does not increase continuously with rainfall, but rather is constrained to low (<50%, "savanna") or high tree cover (>75%, "forest"). Intermediate tree cover rarely occurs. Fire, which prevents trees from establishing, differentiates high and low tree cover, especially in areas with rainfall between 1000 mm and 2000 mm. Fire is less important at low rainfall (<1000 mm), where rainfall limits tree cover, and at high rainfall (>2000 mm), where fire is rare. This pattern suggests that complex interactions between climate and disturbance produce emergent alternative states in tree cover. The relationship between tree cover and fire was incorporated into a dynamic model including grass, savanna tree saplings, and savanna trees. Only recruitment from sapling to adult tree varied depending on the amount of grass in the system. Based on our empirical analysis and previous work, fires spread only at tree cover of 40% or less, producing a sigmoidal fire probability distribution as a function of grass cover and therefore a sigmoidal sapling to tree recruitment function. This model demonstrates that, given relatively conservative and empirically supported assumptions about the establishment of trees in savannas, alternative stable states for the same set of environmental conditions (i.e., model parameters) are possible via a fire feedback mechanism. Integrating alternative stable state dynamics into models of biome distributions could improve our ability to predict changes in biome distributions and in carbon storage under climate and global change scenarios.

A comparison of portfolio selection models via application on ISE 100 index data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altun, Emrah; Tatlidil, Hüseyin

2013-10-01

Markowitz Model, a classical approach to portfolio optimization problem, relies on two important assumptions: the expected return is multivariate normally distributed and the investor is risk averter. But this model has not been extensively used in finance. Empirical results show that it is very hard to solve large scale portfolio optimization problems with Mean-Variance (M-V)model. Alternative model, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) model which is proposed by Konno and Yamazaki [7] has been used to remove most of difficulties of Markowitz Mean-Variance model. MAD model don't need to assume that the probability of the rates of return is normally distributed and based on Linear Programming. Another alternative portfolio model is Mean-Lower Semi Absolute Deviation (M-LSAD), which is proposed by Speranza [3]. We will compare these models to determine which model gives more appropriate solution to investors.

[The teaching and application of alternative medicine in medical education programs].

PubMed

Chiang, Han-Sun

2014-12-01

The history of alternative medicine is perhaps as long as the history of human medicine. The development of evidence-based medicine has not annihilated alternative medicine. On the contrary, more people turn to alternative medicine because this approach to treatment serves as an effective remedial or supportive treatment when used in conjunction with evidence-based medicine. In contemporary healthcare, alternative medicine is now an essential part of integrated medicine. In Taiwan, most professional medical practitioners have not received proper education about alternative medicine and therefore generally lack comprehensive knowledge on this subject. While alternative medicine may be effective when used with some patients, it may also impart a placebo effect, which helps restore the body and soul of the patients. Medical staff with advanced knowledge of alternative medicine may not only help patients but also improve the doctor-patient relationship. There is great diversity in alternative medicine, with some alternative therapies supported by evidence and covered by insurance. However, there also remain fraudulent medical practices that may be harmful to health. Medical staff must be properly educated so that they can provide patients and their family a proper understanding and attitude toward alternative medicine. Therefore, alternative medicine should be included in the standard medical education curriculum. Offering classes on alternative medicine in university for more than 10 years, the author shares his experiences regarding potential content, lecture subjects, group experience exercises, and in-class activities. This article is intended to provide a reference to professors in university medical education and offer a possible model for alternative medicine education in Taiwan.

Impact of Uncertainties in Meteorological Forcing Data and Land Surface Parameters on Global Estimates of Terrestrial Water Balance Components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasonova, O. N.; Gusev, Ye. M.; Kovalev, Ye. E.

2009-04-01

Global estimates of the components of terrestrial water balance depend on a technique of estimation and on the global observational data sets used for this purpose. Land surface modelling is an up-to-date and powerful tool for such estimates. However, the results of modelling are affected by the quality of both a model and input information (including meteorological forcing data and model parameters). The latter is based on available global data sets containing meteorological data, land-use information, and soil and vegetation characteristics. Now there are a lot of global data sets, which differ in spatial and temporal resolution, as well as in accuracy and reliability. Evidently, uncertainties in global data sets will influence the results of model simulations, but to which extent? The present work is an attempt to investigate this issue. The work is based on the land surface model SWAP (Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants) and global 1-degree data sets on meteorological forcing data and the land surface parameters, provided within the framework of the Second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP-2). The 3-hourly near-surface meteorological data (for the period from 1 July 1982 to 31 December 1995) are based on reanalyses and gridded observational data used in the International Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Initiative II. Following the GSWP-2 strategy, we used a number of alternative global forcing data sets to perform different sensitivity experiments (with six alternative versions of precipitation, four versions of radiation, two pure reanalysis products and two fully hybridized products of meteorological data). To reveal the influence of model parameters on simulations, in addition to GSWP-2 parameter data sets, we produced two alternative global data sets with soil parameters on the basis of their relationships with the content of clay and sand in a soil. After this the sensitivity experiments with three different sets of parameters were performed. As a result, 16 variants of global annual estimates of water balance components were obtained. Application of alternative data sets on radiation, precipitation, and soil parameters allowed us to reveal the influence of uncertainties in input data on global estimates of water balance components.

Developing a Hierarchical Decision Model to Evaluate Nuclear Power Plant Alternative Siting Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lingga, Marwan Mossa

A strong trend of returning to nuclear power is evident in different places in the world. Forty-five countries are planning to add nuclear power to their grids and more than 66 nuclear power plants are under construction. Nuclear power plants that generate electricity and steam need to improve safety to become more acceptable to governments and the public. One novel practical solution to increase nuclear power plants' safety factor is to build them away from urban areas, such as offshore or underground. To date, Land-Based siting is the dominant option for siting all commercial operational nuclear power plants. However, the literature reveals several options for building nuclear power plants in safer sitings than Land-Based sitings. The alternatives are several and each has advantages and disadvantages, and it is difficult to distinguish among them and choose the best for a specific project. In this research, we recall the old idea of using the alternatives of offshore and underground sitings for new nuclear power plants and propose a tool to help in choosing the best siting technology. This research involved the development of a decision model for evaluating several potential nuclear power plant siting technologies, both those that are currently available and future ones. The decision model was developed based on the Hierarchical Decision Modeling (HDM) methodology. The model considers five major dimensions, social, technical, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP), and their related criteria and sub-criteria. The model was designed and developed by the author, and its elements' validation and evaluation were done by a large number of experts in the field of nuclear energy. The decision model was applied in evaluating five potential siting technologies and ranked the Natural Island as the best in comparison to Land-Based, Floating Plant, Artificial Island, and Semi-Embedded plant.

Modified Likelihood-Based Item Fit Statistics for the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, James S.

2008-01-01

Orlando and Thissen (2000) developed an item fit statistic for binary item response theory (IRT) models known as S-X[superscript 2]. This article generalizes their statistic to polytomous unfolding models. Four alternative formulations of S-X[superscript 2] are developed for the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM). The GGUM is a…

Using a GIS model to assess terrestrial salamander response to alternative forest management plans

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Nathan L. Murphy; Thomas R. Crow

2001-01-01

A GIS model predicting the spatial distribution of terrestrial salamander abundance based on topography and forest age was developed using parameters derived from the literature. The model was tested by sampling salamander abundance across the full range of site conditions used in the model. A regression of the predictions of our GIS model against these sample data...

Long-Term Evaluation of Ocean Tidal Variation Models of Polar Motion and UT1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karbon, Maria; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Belda, Santiago; Nilsson, Tobias; Hagedoorn, Jan; Schuh, Harald

2018-04-01

Recent improvements in the development of VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) and other space geodetic techniques such as the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) require very precise a-priori information of short-period (daily and sub-daily) Earth rotation variations. One significant contribution to Earth rotation is caused by the diurnal and semi-diurnal ocean tides. Within this work, we developed a new model for the short-period ocean tidal variations in Earth rotation, where the ocean tidal angular momentum model and the Earth rotation variation have been setup jointly. Besides the model of the short-period variation of the Earth's rotation parameters (ERP), based on the empirical ocean tide model EOT11a, we developed also ERP models, that are based on the hydrodynamic ocean tide models FES2012 and HAMTIDE. Furthermore, we have assessed the effect of uncertainties in the elastic Earth model on the resulting ERP models. Our proposed alternative ERP model to the IERS 2010 conventional model considers the elastic model PREM and 260 partial tides. The choice of the ocean tide model and the determination of the tidal velocities have been identified as the main uncertainties. However, in the VLBI analysis all models perform on the same level of accuracy. From these findings, we conclude that the models presented here, which are based on a re-examined theoretical description and long-term satellite altimetry observation only, are an alternative for the IERS conventional model but do not improve the geodetic results.

Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joyner, Claude R.; Lauriem, Jonathan R.; Levack, Daniel H.; Zapata, Edgar

2011-01-01

Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the impct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

Augmentative Communication Services in the Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blackstone, Sarah W.

1989-01-01

The article considers current issues concerning service delivery systems and practices concerning augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) services in U.S. schools. Concerns in AAC program development are noted and service delivery models (center-based, community-based, or collaborative) are compared. (DB)

Model-based machine learning.

PubMed

Bishop, Christopher M

2013-02-13

Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications.

Model-based machine learning

PubMed Central

Bishop, Christopher M.

2013-01-01

Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications. PMID:23277612

Planning for Capital Reinvestment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biedenweg, Frederick; Weisburg-Swanson, Lynda; Gardner, Catherine

1998-01-01

Describes and evaluates four alternatives for planning and budgeting for capital reinvestment for college and university facilities: physical plant auditing; a depreciation-based approach; percentage of current replacement value; and facility subsystem modeling, or life-cycle modeling. Each has advantages and limitations in budgeting for and…

Alternative Zoning Scenarios for Regional Sustainable Land Use Controls in China: A Knowledge-Based Multiobjective Optimisation Model

PubMed Central

Xia, Yin; Liu, Dianfeng; Liu, Yaolin; He, Jianhua; Hong, Xiaofeng

2014-01-01

Alternative land use zoning scenarios provide guidance for sustainable land use controls. This study focused on an ecologically vulnerable catchment on the Loess Plateau in China, proposed a novel land use zoning model, and generated alternative zoning solutions to satisfy the various requirements of land use stakeholders and managers. This model combined multiple zoning objectives, i.e., maximum zoning suitability, maximum planning compatibility and maximum spatial compactness, with land use constraints by using goal programming technique, and employed a modified simulated annealing algorithm to search for the optimal zoning solutions. The land use zoning knowledge was incorporated into the initialisation operator and neighbourhood selection strategy of the simulated annealing algorithm to improve its efficiency. The case study indicates that the model is both effective and robust. Five optimal zoning scenarios of the study area were helpful for satisfying the requirements of land use controls in loess hilly regions, e.g., land use intensification, agricultural protection and environmental conservation. PMID:25170679

Comparing models for growth and management of forest tracts

Treesearch

J.J. Colbert; Michael Schuckers; Desta Fekedulegn

2003-01-01

The Stand Damage Model (SDM) is a PC-based model that is easily installed, calibrated and initialized for use in exploring the future growth and management of forest stands or small wood lots. We compare the basic individual tree growth model incorporated in this model with alternative models that predict the basal area growth of trees. The SDM is a gap-type simulator...

Development Of Educational Programs In Renewable And Alternative Energy Processing: The Case Of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svirina, Anna; Shindor, Olga; Tatmyshevsky, Konstantin

2014-12-01

The paper deals with the main problems of Russian energy system development that proves necessary to provide educational programs in the field of renewable and alternative energy. In the paper the process of curricula development and defining teaching techniques on the basis of expert opinion evaluation is defined, and the competence model for renewable and alternative energy processing master students is suggested. On the basis of a distributed questionnaire and in-depth interviews, the data for statistical analysis was obtained. On the basis of this data, an optimization of curricula structure was performed, and three models of a structure for optimizing teaching techniques were developed. The suggested educational program structure which was adopted by employers is presented in the paper. The findings include quantitatively estimated importance of systemic thinking and professional skills and knowledge as basic competences of a masters' program graduate; statistically estimated necessity of practice-based learning approach; and optimization models for structuring curricula in renewable and alternative energy processing. These findings allow the establishment of a platform for the development of educational programs.

Experimental evidence and modelling of drought induced alternative stable soil moisture states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, David; Jones, Scott; Lebron, Inma; Reinsch, Sabine; Dominguez, Maria; Smith, Andrew; Marshal, Miles; Emmett, Bridget

2017-04-01

The theory of alternative stable states in ecosystems is well established in ecology; however, evidence from manipulation experiments supporting the theory is limited. Developing the evidence base is important because it has profound implications for ecosystem management. Here we show evidence of the existence of alternative stable soil moisture states induced by drought in an upland wet heath. We used a long-term (15 yrs) climate change manipulation experiment with moderate sustained drought, which reduced the ability of the soil to retain soil moisture by degrading the soil structure, reducing moisture retention. Moreover, natural intense droughts superimposed themselves on the experiment, causing an unexpected additional alternative soil moisture state to develop, both for the drought manipulation and control plots; this impaired the soil from rewetting in winter. Our results show the coexistence of three stable states. Using modelling with the Hydrus 1D software package we are able to show the circumstances under which shifts in soil moisture states are likely to occur. Given the new understanding it presents a challenge of how to incorporate feedbacks, particularly related to soil structure, into soil flow and transport models?

Risk Based Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.; Hartman, R. K.

2017-12-01

Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) is a risk based approach of reservoir flood operations that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, each member of an ESP is individually modeled to forecast system conditions and calculate risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. Reservoir release decisions are computed which seek to manage forecasted risk to established risk tolerance levels. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC, which approximates flow forecasts for 61 ensemble members for a 15-day horizon. Model simulation results of the EFO alternative demonstrate a 36% increase in median end of water year (September 30) storage levels over existing operations. Additionally, model results show no increase in occurrence of flows above flood stage for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that the EFO alternative may be a viable approach for managing Lake Mendocino for multiple purposes (water supply, flood mitigation, ecosystems) and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

PubMed

Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

2018-04-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local settings of drinking water systems. The model provides a clear and holistic structure for decisions related to microbial risk mitigation. To improve the decision model, we suggest to further develop the valuation and monetisation of health effects and to refine the propagation of uncertainties and variabilities between the included methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing Mapped Plot Estimators

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen

2006-01-01

Two alternative derivations of estimators for mean and variance from mapped plots are compared by considering the models that support the estimators and by simulation. It turns out that both models lead to the same estimator for the mean but lead to very different variance estimators. The variance estimators based on the least valid model assumptions are shown to...

Evaluation of 2D shallow-water model for spillway flow with a complex geometry

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although the two-dimensional (2D) shallow water model is formulated based on several assumptions such as hydrostatic pressure distribution and vertical velocity is negligible, as a simple alternative to the complex 3D model, it has been used to compute water flows in which these assumptions may be ...

Social Relations in Childhood and Adolescence: The Convoy Model Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levitt, Mary J.

2005-01-01

Research on the development of social relations has been largely fragmented along role-specific lines and dominated conceptually by attachment theory. The Convoy Model is presented as an alternative to traditional approaches that fail to capture the complexity of social relationships across time and context. Research based on the model converges…

Integrating species distributional, conservation planning, and individual based population models: A case study in critical habitat evaluation for the Northern Spotted Owl

EPA Science Inventory

Background / Question / Methods As part of the ongoing northern spotted owl recovery planning effort, we evaluated a series of alternative potential critical habitat scenarios using a species-distribution model (MaxEnt), a conservation-planning model (Zonation), and an individua...

42 CFR § 414.1420 - Other payer advanced APMs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1420 Other payer... payment by the APM Entity to the payer. (2) Medicaid Medical Home Model financial risk standard. For an... APM benchmark, except for episode payment models, for which it is defined as the episode target price...

Optimization-Based Model Fitting for Latent Class and Latent Profile Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Guan-Hua; Wang, Su-Mei; Hsu, Chung-Chu

2011-01-01

Statisticians typically estimate the parameters of latent class and latent profile models using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. This paper proposes an alternative two-stage approach to model fitting. The first stage uses the modified k-means and hierarchical clustering algorithms to identify the latent classes that best satisfy the…

75 FR 53371 - Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities: Obtaining Approval of Alternative Vapor-Gas Dispersion Models

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-31

... factors as the approved models, are validated by experimental test data, and receive the Administrator's... stage of the MEP involves applying the model against a database of experimental test cases including..., particularly the requirement for validation by experimental test data. That guidance is based on the MEP's...

Efficient Posterior Probability Mapping Using Savage-Dickey Ratios

PubMed Central

Penny, William D.; Ridgway, Gerard R.

2013-01-01

Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) is the dominant paradigm for mass-univariate analysis of neuroimaging data. More recently, a Bayesian approach termed Posterior Probability Mapping (PPM) has been proposed as an alternative. PPM offers two advantages: (i) inferences can be made about effect size thus lending a precise physiological meaning to activated regions, (ii) regions can be declared inactive. This latter facility is most parsimoniously provided by PPMs based on Bayesian model comparisons. To date these comparisons have been implemented by an Independent Model Optimization (IMO) procedure which separately fits null and alternative models. This paper proposes a more computationally efficient procedure based on Savage-Dickey approximations to the Bayes factor, and Taylor-series approximations to the voxel-wise posterior covariance matrices. Simulations show the accuracy of this Savage-Dickey-Taylor (SDT) method to be comparable to that of IMO. Results on fMRI data show excellent agreement between SDT and IMO for second-level models, and reasonable agreement for first-level models. This Savage-Dickey test is a Bayesian analogue of the classical SPM-F and allows users to implement model comparison in a truly interactive manner. PMID:23533640

Model-based RSA of a femoral hip stem using surface and geometrical shape models.

PubMed

Kaptein, Bart L; Valstar, Edward R; Spoor, Cees W; Stoel, Berend C; Rozing, Piet M

2006-07-01

Roentgen stereophotogrammetry (RSA) is a highly accurate three-dimensional measuring technique for assessing micromotion of orthopaedic implants. A drawback is that markers have to be attached to the implant. Model-based techniques have been developed to prevent using special marked implants. We compared two model-based RSA methods with standard marker-based RSA techniques. The first model-based RSA method used surface models, and the second method used elementary geometrical shape (EGS) models. We used a commercially available stem to perform experiments with a phantom as well as reanalysis of patient RSA radiographs. The data from the phantom experiment indicated the accuracy and precision of the elementary geometrical shape model-based RSA method is equal to marker-based RSA. For model-based RSA using surface models, the accuracy is equal to the accuracy of marker-based RSA, but its precision is worse. We found no difference in accuracy and precision between the two model-based RSA techniques in clinical data. For this particular hip stem, EGS model-based RSA is a good alternative for marker-based RSA.

Predicting Energy Performance of a Net-Zero Energy Building: A Statistical Approach

PubMed Central

Kneifel, Joshua; Webb, David

2016-01-01

Performance-based building requirements have become more prevalent because it gives freedom in building design while still maintaining or exceeding the energy performance required by prescriptive-based requirements. In order to determine if building designs reach target energy efficiency improvements, it is necessary to estimate the energy performance of a building using predictive models and different weather conditions. Physics-based whole building energy simulation modeling is the most common approach. However, these physics-based models include underlying assumptions and require significant amounts of information in order to specify the input parameter values. An alternative approach to test the performance of a building is to develop a statistically derived predictive regression model using post-occupancy data that can accurately predict energy consumption and production based on a few common weather-based factors, thus requiring less information than simulation models. A regression model based on measured data should be able to predict energy performance of a building for a given day as long as the weather conditions are similar to those during the data collection time frame. This article uses data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Net-Zero Energy Residential Test Facility (NZERTF) to develop and validate a regression model to predict the energy performance of the NZERTF using two weather variables aggregated to the daily level, applies the model to estimate the energy performance of hypothetical NZERTFs located in different cities in the Mixed-Humid climate zone, and compares these estimates to the results from already existing EnergyPlus whole building energy simulations. This regression model exhibits agreement with EnergyPlus predictive trends in energy production and net consumption, but differs greatly in energy consumption. The model can be used as a framework for alternative and more complex models based on the experimental data collected from the NZERTF. PMID:27956756

Predicting Energy Performance of a Net-Zero Energy Building: A Statistical Approach.

PubMed

Kneifel, Joshua; Webb, David

2016-09-01

Performance-based building requirements have become more prevalent because it gives freedom in building design while still maintaining or exceeding the energy performance required by prescriptive-based requirements. In order to determine if building designs reach target energy efficiency improvements, it is necessary to estimate the energy performance of a building using predictive models and different weather conditions. Physics-based whole building energy simulation modeling is the most common approach. However, these physics-based models include underlying assumptions and require significant amounts of information in order to specify the input parameter values. An alternative approach to test the performance of a building is to develop a statistically derived predictive regression model using post-occupancy data that can accurately predict energy consumption and production based on a few common weather-based factors, thus requiring less information than simulation models. A regression model based on measured data should be able to predict energy performance of a building for a given day as long as the weather conditions are similar to those during the data collection time frame. This article uses data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Net-Zero Energy Residential Test Facility (NZERTF) to develop and validate a regression model to predict the energy performance of the NZERTF using two weather variables aggregated to the daily level, applies the model to estimate the energy performance of hypothetical NZERTFs located in different cities in the Mixed-Humid climate zone, and compares these estimates to the results from already existing EnergyPlus whole building energy simulations. This regression model exhibits agreement with EnergyPlus predictive trends in energy production and net consumption, but differs greatly in energy consumption. The model can be used as a framework for alternative and more complex models based on the experimental data collected from the NZERTF.

Temperature based daily incoming solar radiation modeling based on gene expression programming, neuro-fuzzy and neural network computing techniques.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landeras, G.; López, J. J.; Kisi, O.; Shiri, J.

2012-04-01

The correct observation/estimation of surface incoming solar radiation (RS) is very important for many agricultural, meteorological and hydrological related applications. While most weather stations are provided with sensors for air temperature detection, the presence of sensors necessary for the detection of solar radiation is not so habitual and the data quality provided by them is sometimes poor. In these cases it is necessary to estimate this variable. Temperature based modeling procedures are reported in this study for estimating daily incoming solar radiation by using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the first time, and other artificial intelligence models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Traditional temperature based solar radiation equations were also included in this study and compared with artificial intelligence based approaches. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) RMSE-based skill score (SSRMSE), MAE-based skill score (SSMAE) and r2 criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe criteria were used to assess the models' performances. An ANN (a four-input multilayer perceptron with ten neurons in the hidden layer) presented the best performance among the studied models (2.93 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). A four-input ANFIS model revealed as an interesting alternative to ANNs (3.14 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). Very limited number of studies has been done on estimation of solar radiation based on ANFIS, and the present one demonstrated the ability of ANFIS to model solar radiation based on temperatures and extraterrestrial radiation. By the way this study demonstrated, for the first time, the ability of GEP models to model solar radiation based on daily atmospheric variables. Despite the accuracy of GEP models was slightly lower than the ANFIS and ANN models the genetic programming models (i.e., GEP) are superior to other artificial intelligence models in giving a simple explicit equation for the phenomenon which shows the relationship between the input and output parameters. This study provided new alternatives for solar radiation estimation based on temperatures.

Construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models using knowledge-based techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, M. Douglas; Shiva, Sajjan G.

1990-01-01

Over the past three decades, computer-based simulation models have proven themselves to be cost-effective alternatives to the more structured deterministic methods of systems analysis. During this time, many techniques, tools and languages for constructing computer-based simulation models have been developed. More recently, advances in knowledge-based system technology have led many researchers to note the similarities between knowledge-based programming and simulation technologies and to investigate the potential application of knowledge-based programming techniques to simulation modeling. The integration of conventional simulation techniques with knowledge-based programming techniques is discussed to provide a development environment for constructing knowledge-based simulation models. A comparison of the techniques used in the construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models and those used in the construction of knowledge-based systems provides the requirements for the environment. This leads to the design and implementation of a knowledge-based simulation development environment. These techniques were used in the construction of several knowledge-based simulation models including the Advanced Launch System Model (ALSYM).

Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

2007-12-01

The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is in the process of assessing and developing regulatory decision options based on modeling predictions of contaminant transport from underground testing of nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The UGTA Project is attempting to develop an effective modeling strategy that addresses and quantifies multiple components of uncertainty including natural variability, parameter uncertainty, conceptual/model uncertainty, and decision uncertainty in translating model results into regulatory requirements. The modeling task presents multiple unique challenges to the hydrological sciences as a result ofmore » the complex fractured and faulted hydrostratigraphy, the distributed locations of sources, the suite of reactive and non-reactive radionuclides, and uncertainty in conceptual models. Characterization of the hydrogeologic system is difficult and expensive because of deep groundwater in the arid desert setting and the large spatial setting of the NTS. Therefore, conceptual model uncertainty is partially addressed through the development of multiple alternative conceptual models of the hydrostratigraphic framework and multiple alternative models of recharge and discharge. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is assessed through development of alternative groundwater fluxes through multiple simulations using the regional groundwater flow model. Calibration of alternative models to heads and measured or inferred fluxes has not proven to provide clear measures of model quality. Therefore, model screening by comparison to independently-derived natural geochemical mixing targets through cluster analysis has also been invoked to evaluate differences between alternative conceptual models. Advancing multiple alternative flow models, sensitivity of transport predictions to parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations are challenged by the distributed sources in each of the Corrective Action Units, by complex mass transfer processes, and by the size and complexity of the field-scale flow models. An efficient methodology utilizing particle tracking results and convolution integrals provides in situ concentrations appropriate for Monte Carlo analysis. Uncertainty in source releases and transport parameters including effective porosity, fracture apertures and spacing, matrix diffusion coefficients, sorption coefficients, and colloid load and mobility are considered. With the distributions of input uncertainties and output plume volumes, global analysis methods including stepwise regression, contingency table analysis, and classification tree analysis are used to develop sensitivity rankings of parameter uncertainties for each model considered, thus assisting a variety of decisions.« less

An Alternate Definition of the ETS Delta Scale of Item Difficulty. Program Statistics Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holland, Paul W.; Thayer, Dorothy T.

An alternative definition has been developed of the delta scale of item difficulty used at Educational Testing Service. The traditional delta scale uses an inverse normal transformation based on normal ogive models developed years ago. However, no use is made of this fact in typical uses of item deltas. It is simply one way to make the probability…

Multi-Cone Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sparks, Lawrence; Komjathy, Attila; Mannucci, Anthony

2009-01-01

The multi-cone model is a computational model for estimating ionospheric delays of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. It is a direct descendant of the conical-domain model. A primary motivation for the development of this model is the need to find alternatives for modeling slant delays at low latitudes, where ionospheric behavior poses an acute challenge for GPS signal-delay estimates based upon the thin-shell model of the ionosphere.

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Treesearch

Thomas A. Spies; Eric White; Alan Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; John P. Bolte; Emily K. Platt; Keith A. Olsen; Robert J. Pabst; Ana M. G. Barros; John D. Bailey; Susan Charnley; Anita T. Morzillo; Jennifer Koch; Michelle M. Steen-Adams; Peter H. Singleton; James Sulzman; Cynthia Schwartz; Blair Csuti

2017-01-01

Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern...

ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY VERIFICATION: JOINT (NSDF-EPA) VERIFICATION STATEMENT AND REPORT FOR THE REDUCTION OF NITROGEN IN DOMESTIC WASTEWATER FROM INDIVIDUAL HOMES, SEPTITECH, INC. MODEL 400 SYSTEM - 02/04/WQPC-SWP

EPA Science Inventory

Verification testing of the SeptiTech Model 400 System was conducted over a twelve month period at the Massachusetts Alternative Septic System Test Center (MASSTC) located at the Otis Air National Guard Base in Borne, MA. Sanitary Sewerage from the base residential housing was u...

Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gati, Itamar

1986-01-01

Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

Pricing Models and Payment Schemes for Library Collections.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stern, David

2002-01-01

Discusses new pricing and payment options for libraries in light of online products. Topics include alternative cost models rather than traditional subscriptions; use-based pricing; changes in scholarly communication due to information technology; methods to determine appropriate charges for different organizations; consortial plans; funding; and…

Quantitative Method for Analyzing the Allocation of Risks in Transportation Construction

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-04-01

The report presents a conceptual model of risk that was developed to analyze the impact on owner's cost of alternate allocations of risk among owner and contractor in mass transit construction. A model and analysis procedure are developed, based on d...

The Source of the Symbolic Numerical Distance and Size Effects

PubMed Central

Krajcsi, Attila; Lengyel, Gábor; Kojouharova, Petia

2016-01-01

Human number understanding is thought to rely on the analog number system (ANS), working according to Weber’s law. We propose an alternative account, suggesting that symbolic mathematical knowledge is based on a discrete semantic system (DSS), a representation that stores values in a semantic network, similar to the mental lexicon or to a conceptual network. Here, focusing on the phenomena of numerical distance and size effects in comparison tasks, first we discuss how a DSS model could explain these numerical effects. Second, we demonstrate that the DSS model can give quantitatively as appropriate a description of the effects as the ANS model. Finally, we show that symbolic numerical size effect is mainly influenced by the frequency of the symbols, and not by the ratios of their values. This last result suggests that numerical distance and size effects cannot be caused by the ANS, while the DSS model might be the alternative approach that can explain the frequency-based size effect. PMID:27917139

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

PubMed

Fuller, Michael M; Gross, Louis J; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M; Palmer, Mark

2008-04-01

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions.

Limits of Risk Predictability in a Cascading Alternating Renewal Process Model.

PubMed

Lin, Xin; Moussawi, Alaa; Korniss, Gyorgy; Bakdash, Jonathan Z; Szymanski, Boleslaw K

2017-07-27

Most risk analysis models systematically underestimate the probability and impact of catastrophic events (e.g., economic crises, natural disasters, and terrorism) by not taking into account interconnectivity and interdependence of risks. To address this weakness, we propose the Cascading Alternating Renewal Process (CARP) to forecast interconnected global risks. However, assessments of the model's prediction precision are limited by lack of sufficient ground truth data. Here, we establish prediction precision as a function of input data size by using alternative long ground truth data generated by simulations of the CARP model with known parameters. We illustrate the approach on a model of fires in artificial cities assembled from basic city blocks with diverse housing. The results confirm that parameter recovery variance exhibits power law decay as a function of the length of available ground truth data. Using CARP, we also demonstrate estimation using a disparate dataset that also has dependencies: real-world prediction precision for the global risk model based on the World Economic Forum Global Risk Report. We conclude that the CARP model is an efficient method for predicting catastrophic cascading events with potential applications to emerging local and global interconnected risks.

Hebbian learning in a model with dynamic rate-coded neurons: an alternative to the generative model approach for learning receptive fields from natural scenes.

PubMed

Hamker, Fred H; Wiltschut, Jan

2007-09-01

Most computational models of coding are based on a generative model according to which the feedback signal aims to reconstruct the visual scene as close as possible. We here explore an alternative model of feedback. It is derived from studies of attention and thus, probably more flexible with respect to attentive processing in higher brain areas. According to this model, feedback implements a gain increase of the feedforward signal. We use a dynamic model with presynaptic inhibition and Hebbian learning to simultaneously learn feedforward and feedback weights. The weights converge to localized, oriented, and bandpass filters similar as the ones found in V1. Due to presynaptic inhibition the model predicts the organization of receptive fields within the feedforward pathway, whereas feedback primarily serves to tune early visual processing according to the needs of the task.

Optimal region of latching activity in an adaptive Potts model for networks of neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdollah-nia, Mohammad-Farshad; Saeedghalati, Mohammadkarim; Abbassian, Abdolhossein

2012-02-01

In statistical mechanics, the Potts model is a model for interacting spins with more than two discrete states. Neural networks which exhibit features of learning and associative memory can also be modeled by a system of Potts spins. A spontaneous behavior of hopping from one discrete attractor state to another (referred to as latching) has been proposed to be associated with higher cognitive functions. Here we propose a model in which both the stochastic dynamics of Potts models and an adaptive potential function are present. A latching dynamics is observed in a limited region of the noise(temperature)-adaptation parameter space. We hence suggest noise as a fundamental factor in such alternations alongside adaptation. From a dynamical systems point of view, the noise-adaptation alternations may be the underlying mechanism for multi-stability in attractor-based models. An optimality criterion for realistic models is finally inferred.

Estimating economic thresholds for pest control: an alternative procedure.

PubMed

Ramirez, O A; Saunders, J L

1999-04-01

An alternative methodology to determine profit maximizing economic thresholds is developed and illustrated. An optimization problem based on the main biological and economic relations involved in determining a profit maximizing economic threshold is first advanced. From it, a more manageable model of 2 nonsimultaneous reduced-from equations is derived, which represents a simpler but conceptually and statistically sound alternative. The model recognizes that yields and pest control costs are a function of the economic threshold used. Higher (less strict) economic thresholds can result in lower yields and, therefore, a lower gross income from the sale of the product, but could also be less costly to maintain. The highest possible profits will be obtained by using the economic threshold that results in a maximum difference between gross income and pest control cost functions.

Will the "Fixes" Fall Flat? Prospects for Quality Measures and Payment Incentives to Control Healthcare Spending.

PubMed

Hauswald, Erik; Sklar, David

2017-04-01

Payment systems in the US healthcare system have rewarded physicians for services and attempted to control healthcare spending, with rewards and penalties based upon projected goals for future spending. The incorporation of quality goals and alternatives to fee-for-service was introduced to replace the previous system of rewards and penalties. We describe the history of the US healthcare payment system, focusing on Medicare and the efforts to control spending through the Sustainable Growth Rate. We describe the latest evolution of the payment system, which emphasizes quality measurement and alternative payment models. We conclude with suggestions for how to influence physician behavior through education and payment reform so that their behavior aligns with alternative care models to control spending in the future.

Functionalizing graphene by embedded boron clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quandt, Alexander; Kunstmann, Jens; Ozdogan, Cem; Fehske, Holger

2010-03-01

We present results from an ab initio study of B7 clusters implanted into graphene [1,2]. Our model system consists of an alternating chain of quasiplanar B7 clusters. We show that graphene easily accepts these alternating B7-C6 chains and that the implanted boron components may dramatically modify the electronic properties. This suggests that our model system might serve as a blueprint for the controlled layout of graphene based nanodevices, where the semiconducting properties are supplemented by parts of the graphene matrix itself, and the basic metallic wiring is provided by alternating chains of implanted boron clusters. [1] A. Quandt, C. "Ozdogan, J. Kunstmann, and H. Fehske, Nanotechnology 19, 335707 (2008). [2] A. Quandt, C. "Ozdogan, J. Kunstmann, and H. Fehske, phys. stat. solidi (b) 245, 2077 (2008).

DSM-5 alternative personality disorder model traits as maladaptive extreme variants of the five-factor model: An item-response theory analysis.

PubMed

Suzuki, Takakuni; Samuel, Douglas B; Pahlen, Shandell; Krueger, Robert F

2015-05-01

Over the past two decades, evidence has suggested that personality disorders (PDs) can be conceptualized as extreme, maladaptive variants of general personality dimensions, rather than discrete categorical entities. Recognizing this literature, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) alternative PD model in Section III defines PDs partially through 25 maladaptive traits that fall within 5 domains. Empirical evidence based on the self-report measure of these traits, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5), suggests that these five higher-order domains share a structure and correlate in meaningful ways with the five-factor model (FFM) of general personality. In the current study, item response theory was used to compare the DSM-5 alternative PD model traits to those from a normative FFM inventory (the International Personality Item Pool-NEO [IPIP-NEO]) in terms of their measurement precision along the latent dimensions. Within a combined sample of 3,517 participants, results strongly supported the conclusion that the DSM-5 alternative PD model traits and IPIP-NEO traits are complimentary measures of 4 of the 5 FFM domains (with perhaps the exception of openness to experience vs. psychoticism). Importantly, the two measures yield largely overlapping information curves on these four domains. Differences that did emerge suggested that the PID-5 scales generally have higher thresholds and provide more information at the upper levels, whereas the IPIP-NEO generally had an advantage at the lower levels. These results support the general conceptualization that 4 domains of the DSM-5 alternative PD model traits are maladaptive, extreme versions of the FFM. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rakovec, O.; Hill, Mary C.; Clark, M.P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based “local” methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative “bucket-style” hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

Neural and hybrid modeling: an alternative route to efficiently predict the behavior of biotechnological processes aimed at biofuels obtainment.

PubMed

Curcio, Stefano; Saraceno, Alessandra; Calabrò, Vincenza; Iorio, Gabriele

2014-01-01

The present paper was aimed at showing that advanced modeling techniques, based either on artificial neural networks or on hybrid systems, might efficiently predict the behavior of two biotechnological processes designed for the obtainment of second-generation biofuels from waste biomasses. In particular, the enzymatic transesterification of waste-oil glycerides, the key step for the obtainment of biodiesel, and the anaerobic digestion of agroindustry wastes to produce biogas were modeled. It was proved that the proposed modeling approaches provided very accurate predictions of systems behavior. Both neural network and hybrid modeling definitely represented a valid alternative to traditional theoretical models, especially when comprehensive knowledge of the metabolic pathways, of the true kinetic mechanisms, and of the transport phenomena involved in biotechnological processes was difficult to be achieved.

Neural and Hybrid Modeling: An Alternative Route to Efficiently Predict the Behavior of Biotechnological Processes Aimed at Biofuels Obtainment

PubMed Central

Saraceno, Alessandra; Calabrò, Vincenza; Iorio, Gabriele

2014-01-01

The present paper was aimed at showing that advanced modeling techniques, based either on artificial neural networks or on hybrid systems, might efficiently predict the behavior of two biotechnological processes designed for the obtainment of second-generation biofuels from waste biomasses. In particular, the enzymatic transesterification of waste-oil glycerides, the key step for the obtainment of biodiesel, and the anaerobic digestion of agroindustry wastes to produce biogas were modeled. It was proved that the proposed modeling approaches provided very accurate predictions of systems behavior. Both neural network and hybrid modeling definitely represented a valid alternative to traditional theoretical models, especially when comprehensive knowledge of the metabolic pathways, of the true kinetic mechanisms, and of the transport phenomena involved in biotechnological processes was difficult to be achieved. PMID:24516363

ALTERNATIVES TO HELIUM-3 FOR NEUTRON MULTIPLICITY DETECTORS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ely, James H.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Swinhoe, Martyn T.

Collaboration between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is underway to evaluate neutron detection technologies that might replace the high-pressure helium (3He) tubes currently used in neutron multiplicity counter for safeguards applications. The current stockpile of 3He is diminishing and alternatives are needed for a variety of neutron detection applications including multiplicity counters. The first phase of this investigation uses a series of Monte Carlo calculations to simulate the performance of an existing neutron multiplicity counter configuration by replacing the 3He tubes in a model for that counter with candidate alternative technologies. Thesemore » alternative technologies are initially placed in approximately the same configuration as the 3He tubes to establish a reference level of performance against the 3He-based system. After these reference-level results are established, the configurations of the alternative models will be further modified for performance optimization. The 3He model for these simulations is the one used by LANL to develop and benchmark the Epithermal Neutron Multiplicity Counter (ENMC) detector, as documented by H.O. Menlove, et al. in the 2004 LANL report LA-14088. The alternative technologies being evaluated are the boron-tri-fluoride-filled proportional tubes, boron-lined tubes, and lithium coated materials previously tested as possible replacements in portal monitor screening applications, as documented by R.T. Kouzes, et al. in the 2010 PNNL report PNNL-72544 and NIM A 623 (2010) 1035–1045. The models and methods used for these comparative calculations will be described and preliminary results shown« less

Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, Maysa Joppert

The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input assumptions and key assumptions of modeling framework, and are used as the basis for recommendations regarding energy development priorities for Brazil.

Unintended Consequences in Cancer Care Delivery Created by the Medicare Part B Proposal: Is the Clinical Rationale for the Experiment Flawed?

PubMed

Gordan, Lucio; Grogg, Amy; Blazer, Marlo; Fortner, Barry

2017-02-01

Medicare currently enrolls ≥ 45 million adults, and by 2030 this is projected to increase to ≥ 80 million beneficiaries. With this growth, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a proposal, the Medicare Part B Drug Payment Model, to shrink drug expenditures, a major contributor to overall health care costs. For this to not adversely affect patient outcomes, lower-cost alternative medications with equivalent efficacy and no increased toxicity must be available. This is often not true in the treatment of cancer. Herein, we examine the flaws in the rationale of the CMS and the potential unintended consequences of this experiment. We identified the top three oncology expenditures (rituximab, bevacizumab, and trastuzumab) and their vetted alternatives (per the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines) to ascertain whether lower-cost equivalent alternatives are available. Drug cost was based on April 2016 average sale price. We explored both efficacy of the agents and, when applicable, toxicity to compare alternatives to these high-dollar medications. For the largest Medicare oncology drug expenditures, there is not a lower-cost option with equal efficacy for their primary indications. Without lower-cost alternatives, the unintended consequence of this CMS experiment may include curtailing access to care or an increase in patient/program costs. The CMS proposal, by simply lowering reimbursement for drugs, does not acknowledge the value of these agents and could unintentionally reduce quality of care. Alternative approaches to value-based care, such as the Oncology Care Model and similar frameworks, should be explored.

On approaches to analyze the sensitivity of simulated hydrologic fluxes to model parameters in the community land model

DOE PAGES

Bao, Jie; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; ...

2015-12-04

Here, effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalizedmore » linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.« less

Alternative Strategies in Assessing Special Education Needs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dykeman, Bruce F.

2006-01-01

The conventional use of standardized testing within a discrepancy analysis model is reviewed. The Response-to-Intervention (RTI) process is explained, along with descriptions of assessment procedures within RTI: functional assessment, authentic assessment, curriculum-based measurement, and play-based assessment. Psychometric issues relevant to RTI…

ESTABLISHING VERBAL REPERTOIRES IN CHILDREN WITH AUTISM USING FUNCTION-BASED VIDEO MODELING

PubMed Central

Plavnick, Joshua B; Ferreri, Summer J

2011-01-01

Previous research suggests that language-training procedures for children with autism might be enhanced following an assessment of conditions that evoke emerging verbal behavior. The present investigation examined a methodology to teach recognizable mands based on environmental variables known to evoke participants' idiosyncratic communicative responses in the natural environment. An alternating treatments design was used during Experiment 1 to identify the variables that were functionally related to gestures emitted by 4 children with autism. Results showed that gestures functioned as requests for attention for 1 participant and as requests for assistance to obtain a preferred item or event for 3 participants. Video modeling was used during Experiment 2 to compare mand acquisition when video sequences were either related or unrelated to the results of the functional analysis. An alternating treatments within multiple probe design showed that participants repeatedly acquired mands during the function-based condition but not during the nonfunction-based condition. In addition, generalization of the response was observed during the former but not the latter condition. PMID:22219527

Establishing verbal repertoires in children with autism using function-based video modeling.

PubMed

Plavnick, Joshua B; Ferreri, Summer J

2011-01-01

Previous research suggests that language-training procedures for children with autism might be enhanced following an assessment of conditions that evoke emerging verbal behavior. The present investigation examined a methodology to teach recognizable mands based on environmental variables known to evoke participants' idiosyncratic communicative responses in the natural environment. An alternating treatments design was used during Experiment 1 to identify the variables that were functionally related to gestures emitted by 4 children with autism. Results showed that gestures functioned as requests for attention for 1 participant and as requests for assistance to obtain a preferred item or event for 3 participants. Video modeling was used during Experiment 2 to compare mand acquisition when video sequences were either related or unrelated to the results of the functional analysis. An alternating treatments within multiple probe design showed that participants repeatedly acquired mands during the function-based condition but not during the nonfunction-based condition. In addition, generalization of the response was observed during the former but not the latter condition.

Blind compressed sensing image reconstruction based on alternating direction method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qinan; Guo, Shuxu

2018-04-01

In order to solve the problem of how to reconstruct the original image under the condition of unknown sparse basis, this paper proposes an image reconstruction method based on blind compressed sensing model. In this model, the image signal is regarded as the product of a sparse coefficient matrix and a dictionary matrix. Based on the existing blind compressed sensing theory, the optimal solution is solved by the alternative minimization method. The proposed method solves the problem that the sparse basis in compressed sensing is difficult to represent, which restrains the noise and improves the quality of reconstructed image. This method ensures that the blind compressed sensing theory has a unique solution and can recover the reconstructed original image signal from a complex environment with a stronger self-adaptability. The experimental results show that the image reconstruction algorithm based on blind compressed sensing proposed in this paper can recover high quality image signals under the condition of under-sampling.

Preparation of Term Papers Based upon a Research-Process Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feldmann, Rodney Mansfield; Schloman, Barbara Frick

1990-01-01

Described is an alternative method of term paper preparation which provides a step-by-step sequence of assignments and provides feedback to the students at all stages in the preparation of the report. An example of this model is provided including 13 sequential assignments. (CW)

Aviation system modeling study and alternatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The Aviation System Modeling Study was directed toward two primary goals: an improved understanding of the U.S. aviation system, and technology. There are three major categories into which the individual study efforts may be subdivided. These three categories are: special issue studies, task studies, and data base development.

A process-based model for cattle manure compost windrows: Model description

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Composting is an alternative management practice for handling and storing manure in intensive cattle production systems. With composting, cattle manure is converted into a soil amendment with improved nutrient and physical properties and is easier to handle. Despite its benefits, composting can prod...

42 CFR § 414.1415 - Advanced APM criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1415 Advanced APM criteria. (a) Use... is responsible under an APM. For episode payment models, expected expenditures mean the episode...

Modeled Estimates of Soil and Dust Ingestion Rates for Children

EPA Science Inventory

Daily soil/dust ingestion rates typically used in exposure and risk assessments are based on tracer element studies, which have a number of limitations and do not separate contributions from soil and dust. This article presents an alternate approach of modeling soil and dust inge...

Alternative Methods for Handling Attrition

PubMed Central

Foster, E. Michael; Fang, Grace Y.

2009-01-01

Using data from the evaluation of the Fast Track intervention, this article illustrates three methods for handling attrition. Multiple imputation and ignorable maximum likelihood estimation produce estimates that are similar to those based on listwise-deleted data. A panel selection model that allows for selective dropout reveals that highly aggressive boys accumulate in the treatment group over time and produces a larger estimate of treatment effect. In contrast, this model produces a smaller treatment effect for girls. The article's conclusion discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the alternative approaches and outlines ways in which researchers might improve their handling of attrition. PMID:15358906

Histopathological Analogies in Chronic Pulmonary Lesions between Cattle and Humans: Basis for an Alternative Animal Model

PubMed Central

Ramírez-Romero, Rafael; Nevárez-Garza, Alicia M.; Rodríguez-Tovar, Luis E.; Wong-González, Alfredo; Ledezma-Torres, Rogelio A.; Hernández-Vidal, Gustavo

2012-01-01

Most of the natural cases of pneumonia in feedlot cattle are characterized by a longer clinical course due to chronic lung lesions. Microscopically, these lesions include interstitial fibroplasia, bronchitis, bronchiectasis, bronchiolitis obliterans, and epithelial metaplasia of the airways. Herein, the aim was to review, under a medical perspective, the pathologic mechanisms operating in these chronic pneumonic lesions in calves. Based on the similarities of these changes to those reported in bronchiolitis obliterans/organising pneumonia (BO/OP) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in human beings, calves are proposed as an alternative animal model. PMID:22629176

Reliability of Summed Item Scores Using Structural Equation Modeling: An Alternative to Coefficient Alpha

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Samuel B.; Yang, Yanyun

2009-01-01

A method is presented for estimating reliability using structural equation modeling (SEM) that allows for nonlinearity between factors and item scores. Assuming the focus is on consistency of summed item scores, this method for estimating reliability is preferred to those based on linear SEM models and to the most commonly reported estimate of…

Predicting Commitment in Adult and Traditional-Age Students: Applying Rusbult's Investment Model to the Study of Retention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cini, Marie A.; Fritz, Janie M. Harden

Rusbult's Investment Model, a theoretical model of commitment based on notions of social exchange and interdependence theory, was used to predict college commitment in traditional-age and adult college students. A questionnaire assessing rewards, costs, investments, alternatives, and commitment to college was administered to 216 traditional-age…

Approaches to incorporating climate change effects in state and transition simulation models of vegetation

Treesearch

Becky K. Kerns; Miles A. Hemstrom; David Conklin; Gabriel I. Yospin; Bart Johnson; Dominique Bachelet; Scott Bridgham

2012-01-01

Understanding landscape vegetation dynamics often involves the use of scientifically-based modeling tools that are capable of testing alternative management scenarios given complex ecological, management, and social conditions. State-and-transition simulation model (STSM) frameworks and software such as PATH and VDDT are commonly used tools that simulate how landscapes...

An Extension of RSS-based Model Comparison Tests for Weighted Least Squares

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-22

use the model comparison test statistic to analyze the null hypothesis. Under the null hypothesis, the weighted least squares cost functional is JWLS ...q̂WLSH ) = 10.3040×106. Under the alternative hypothesis, the weighted least squares cost functional is JWLS (q̂WLS) = 8.8394 × 106. Thus the model

Model-Based Analysis for Qualitative Data: An Application in Drosophila Germline Stem Cell Regulation

PubMed Central

Pargett, Michael; Rundell, Ann E.; Buzzard, Gregery T.; Umulis, David M.

2014-01-01

Discovery in developmental biology is often driven by intuition that relies on the integration of multiple types of data such as fluorescent images, phenotypes, and the outcomes of biochemical assays. Mathematical modeling helps elucidate the biological mechanisms at play as the networks become increasingly large and complex. However, the available data is frequently under-utilized due to incompatibility with quantitative model tuning techniques. This is the case for stem cell regulation mechanisms explored in the Drosophila germarium through fluorescent immunohistochemistry. To enable better integration of biological data with modeling in this and similar situations, we have developed a general parameter estimation process to quantitatively optimize models with qualitative data. The process employs a modified version of the Optimal Scaling method from social and behavioral sciences, and multi-objective optimization to evaluate the trade-off between fitting different datasets (e.g. wild type vs. mutant). Using only published imaging data in the germarium, we first evaluated support for a published intracellular regulatory network by considering alternative connections of the same regulatory players. Simply screening networks against wild type data identified hundreds of feasible alternatives. Of these, five parsimonious variants were found and compared by multi-objective analysis including mutant data and dynamic constraints. With these data, the current model is supported over the alternatives, but support for a biochemically observed feedback element is weak (i.e. these data do not measure the feedback effect well). When also comparing new hypothetical models, the available data do not discriminate. To begin addressing the limitations in data, we performed a model-based experiment design and provide recommendations for experiments to refine model parameters and discriminate increasingly complex hypotheses. PMID:24626201

Evaluation of Alternative Conceptual Models Using Interdisciplinary Information: An Application in Shallow Groundwater Recharge and Discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; Bajcsy, P.; Valocchi, A. J.; Kim, C.; Wang, J.

2007-12-01

Natural systems are complex, thus extensive data are needed for their characterization. However, data acquisition is expensive; consequently we develop models using sparse, uncertain information. When all uncertainties in the system are considered, the number of alternative conceptual models is large. Traditionally, the development of a conceptual model has relied on subjective professional judgment. Good judgment is based on experience in coordinating and understanding auxiliary information which is correlated to the model but difficult to be quantified into the mathematical model. For example, groundwater recharge and discharge (R&D) processes are known to relate to multiple information sources such as soil type, river and lake location, irrigation patterns and land use. Although hydrologists have been trying to understand and model the interaction between each of these information sources and R&D processes, it is extremely difficult to quantify their correlations using a universal approach due to the complexity of the processes, the spatiotemporal distribution and uncertainty. There is currently no single method capable of estimating R&D rates and patterns for all practical applications. Chamberlin (1890) recommended use of "multiple working hypotheses" (alternative conceptual models) for rapid advancement in understanding of applied and theoretical problems. Therefore, cross analyzing R&D rates and patterns from various estimation methods and related field information will likely be superior to using only a single estimation method. We have developed the Pattern Recognition Utility (PRU), to help GIS users recognize spatial patterns from noisy 2D image. This GIS plug-in utility has been applied to help hydrogeologists establish alternative R&D conceptual models in a more efficient way than conventional methods. The PRU uses numerical methods and image processing algorithms to estimate and visualize shallow R&D patterns and rates. It can provide a fast initial estimate prior to planning labor intensive and time consuming field R&D measurements. Furthermore, the Spatial Pattern 2 Learn (SP2L) was developed to cross analyze results from the PRU with ancillary field information, such as land coverage, soil type, topographic maps and previous estimates. The learning process of SP2L cross examines each initially recognized R&D pattern with the ancillary spatial dataset, and then calculates a quantifiable reliability index for each R&D map using a supervised machine learning technique called decision tree. This JAVA based software package is capable of generating alternative R&D maps if the user decides to apply certain conditions recognized by the learning process. The reliability indices from SP2L will improve the traditionally subjective approach to initiating conceptual models by providing objectively quantifiable conceptual bases for further probabilistic and uncertainty analyses. Both the PRU and SP2L have been designed to be user-friendly and universal utilities for pattern recognition and learning to improve model predictions from sparse measurements by computer-assisted integration of spatially dense geospatial image data and machine learning of model dependencies.

Conformational analysis of a covalently cross-linked Watson-Crick base pair model.

PubMed

Jensen, Erik A; Allen, Benjamin D; Kishi, Yoshito; O'Leary, Daniel J

2008-11-15

Low-temperature NMR experiments and molecular modeling have been used to characterize the conformational behavior of a covalently cross-linked DNA base pair model. The data suggest that Watson-Crick or reverse Watson-Crick hydrogen bonding geometries have similar energies and can interconvert at low temperatures. This low-temperature process involves rotation about the crosslink CH(2)C(5') (psi) carbon-carbon bond, which is energetically preferred over the alternate CH(2)N(3) (phi) carbon-nitrogen bond rotation.

Robust model predictive control for satellite formation keeping with eccentricity/inclination vector separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yeerang; Jung, Youeyun; Bang, Hyochoong

2018-05-01

This study presents model predictive formation control based on an eccentricity/inclination vector separation strategy. Alternative collision avoidance can be accomplished by using eccentricity/inclination vectors and adding a simple goal function term for optimization process. Real-time control is also achievable with model predictive controller based on convex formulation. Constraint-tightening approach is address as well improve robustness of the controller, and simulation results are presented to verify performance enhancement for the proposed approach.

Geothermal studies at Kirtland Air Force Base, Albuquerque, New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riddle, L.; Grant, B.

Due to an effort by government installations to discontinue use of natural gas, alternative energy sources are being investigated at Kirtland Air Force Base, Albuquerque, New Mexico. New Mexico has geologic characteristics favorable for geothermal energy utilization. Local heat flow and geochemical studies indicate a normal subsurface temperature regime. The alluvial deposits, however, extend to great depths where hot fluids, heated by the normal geothermal gradient, could be encountered. Two potential models for tapping geothermal energy are presented: the basin model and the fault model.

Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.

2004-03-01

The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates basedmore » on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four projections, and associated kriging variances, were averaged using the posterior model probabilities as weights. Finally, cross-validation was conducted by eliminating from consideration all data from one borehole at a time, repeating the above process, and comparing the predictive capability of the model-averaged result with that of each individual model. Using two quantitative measures of comparison, the model-averaged result was superior to any individual geostatistical model of log permeability considered.« less

Scripting MODFLOW model development using Python and FloPy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakker, Mark; Post, Vincent E. A.; Langevin, Christian D.; Hughes, Joseph D.; White, Jeremy; Starn, Jeffrey; Fienen, Michael N.

2016-01-01

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are commonly used to construct and postprocess numerical groundwater flow and transport models. Scripting model development with the programming language Python is presented here as an alternative approach. One advantage of Python is that there are many packages available to facilitate the model development process, including packages for plotting, array manipulation, optimization, and data analysis. For MODFLOW-based models, the FloPy package was developed by the authors to construct model input files, run the model, and read and plot simulation results. Use of Python with the available scientific packages and FloPy facilitates data exploration, alternative model evaluations, and model analyses that can be difficult to perform with GUIs. Furthermore, Python scripts are a complete, transparent, and repeatable record of the modeling process. The approach is introduced with a simple FloPy example to create and postprocess a MODFLOW model. A more complicated capture-fraction analysis with a real-world model is presented to demonstrate the types of analyses that can be performed using Python and FloPy.

[The estimation method of compounds opiate activity based on universal three-dimensional model of the nonselective opiate pharmacophore].

PubMed

Kuz'mina, N E; Iashkir, V A; Merkulov, V A; Osipova, E S

2012-01-01

Created by means alternative strategy of structural similarity search universal three-dimensional model of the nonselective opiate pharmacophore and the estimation method of agonistic and antagonistic properties of opiate receptors ligands based on its were described. The examples of the present method use are given for opiate activity estimation of compounds essentially distinguished on the structure from opiates and traditional opioids.

A modeling assessment of the physicochemical properties and environmental fate of emerging and novel per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances.

PubMed

Gomis, Melissa Ines; Wang, Zhanyun; Scheringer, Martin; Cousins, Ian T

2015-02-01

Long-chain perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) and perfluoroalkane sulfonic acids (PFSAs) are persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic contaminants that are globally present in the environment, wildlife and humans. Phase-out actions and use restrictions to reduce the environmental release of long-chain PFCAs, PFSAs and their precursors have been taken since 2000. In particular, long-chain poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are being replaced with shorter-chain homologues or other fluorinated or non-fluorinated alternatives. A key question is: are these alternatives, particularly the structurally similar fluorinated alternatives, less hazardous to humans and the environment than the substances they replace? Several fluorinated alternatives including perfluoroether carboxylic acids (PFECAs) and perfluoroether sulfonic acids (PFESAs) have been recently identified. However, the scarcity of experimental data prevents hazard and risk assessments for these substances. In this study, we use state-of-the-art in silico tools to estimate key properties of these newly identified fluorinated alternatives. [i] COSMOtherm and SPARC are used to estimate physicochemical properties. The US EPA EPISuite software package is used to predict degradation half-lives in air, water and soil. [ii] In combination with estimated chemical properties, a fugacity-based multimedia mass-balance unit-world model - the OECD Overall Persistence (POV) and Long-Range Transport Potential (LRTP) Screening Tool - is used to assess the likely environmental fate of these alternatives. Even though the fluorinated alternatives contain some structural differences, their physicochemical properties are not significantly different from those of their predecessors. Furthermore, most of the alternatives are estimated to be similarly persistent and mobile in the environment as the long-chain PFASs. The models therefore predict that the fluorinated alternatives will become globally distributed in the environment similar to their predecessors. Although such in silico methods are coupled with uncertainties, this preliminary assessment provides enough cause for concern to warrant experimental work to better determine the properties of these fluorinated alternatives. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy sets, rough sets, and modeling evidence: Theory and Application. A Dempster-Shafer based approach to compromise decision making with multiattributes applied to product selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dekorvin, Andre

1992-01-01

The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is applied to a multiattribute decision making problem whereby the decision maker (DM) must compromise with available alternatives, none of which exactly satisfies his ideal. The decision mechanism is constrained by the uncertainty inherent in the determination of the relative importance of each attribute element and the classification of existing alternatives. The classification of alternatives is addressed through expert evaluation of the degree to which each element is contained in each available alternative. The relative importance of each attribute element is determined through pairwise comparisons of the elements by the decision maker and implementation of a ratio scale quantification method. Then the 'belief' and 'plausibility' that an alternative will satisfy the decision maker's ideal are calculated and combined to rank order the available alternatives. Application to the problem of selecting computer software is given.

Route Prediction on Tracking Data to Location-Based Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petróczi, Attila István; Gáspár-Papanek, Csaba

Wireless networks have become so widespread, it is beneficial to determine the ability of cellular networks for localization. This property enables the development of location-based services, providing useful information. These services can be improved by route prediction under the condition of using simple algorithms, because of the limited capabilities of mobile stations. This study gives alternative solutions for this problem of route prediction based on a specific graph model. Our models provide the opportunity to reach our destinations with less effort.

Activity-Based Intervention Practices in Special Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ozen, Arzu; Ergenekon, Yasemin

2011-01-01

Teaching practices in natural settings such as activity-based intervention (ABI) are suggested as alternatives to be used in effective early childhood education. As a multidisciplinary model, ABI consists of four components, which are choosing activities according to the child's interests; teaching generalizable goals embedded in routines and…

42 CFR § 414.1445 - Identification of other payer advanced APMs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1445... determination prior to the QP Performance Period to identify Medicaid Medical Home Models and Medicaid APMs. (b...

The Irrational Science of Educational Reform.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gordon, Rick

This paper discusses the problems encountered in applying rational and participatory models to school reform and presents an alternative model based on action research. The group processes of a school-improvement team (SIT) at a high school are examined. Data were collected through participant observation, interviews with three faculty members,…

Modelling public support for wildland fire policy

Treesearch

J.D. Absher; J.J. Vaske

2007-01-01

Theoretically grounded explanations of wildland fire policy can be improved by empirically documenting the causal influences of support for (or opposition to) management alternatives. This chapter proposes a model based on the specificity principle (i.e. correspondence between measured variables to empirically examine four common wildland fire policies in relation to...

42 CFR § 414.1325 - Data submission requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1325 Data submission...

42 CFR § 414.1395 - Public reporting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1395 Public reporting. (a) Public...

Reentrant topological phase transition in a bridging model between Kitaev and Haldane chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, Takanori; Ohtsu, Mitsuyoshi; Tohyama, Takami

2017-12-01

We present a reentrant phase transition in a bridging model between two different topological models: Kitaev and Haldane chains. This model is activated by introducing a bond alternation into the Kitaev chain [A. Y. Kitaev, Phys. Usp. 44, 131 (2001), 10.1070/1063-7869/44/10S/S29]. Without the bond alternation, the finite pairing potential induces a topological state defined by the zero-energy Majorana edge mode, while finite bond alternation without the pairing potential makes a different topological state similar to the Haldane state, which is defined by the local Berry phase in the bulk. The topologically ordered state corresponds to the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger state, which is classified as the same symmetry class. We thus find a phase transition between the two topological phases with a reentrant phenomenon, and extend the phase diagram in the plane of the pairing potential and the bond alternation by using three techniques: recursive equation, fidelity, and Pfaffian. In addition, we find that the phase transition is characterized by both the change of the position of Majorana zero-energy modes from one edge to the other edge and the emergence of a string order in the bulk, and that the reentrance is based on a sublattice U(1) rotation. Consequently, our paper and model not only open a direct way to discuss the bulk and edge topologies but demonstrate an example of the reentrant topologies.

A new harvest operation cost model to evaluate forest harvest layout alternatives

Treesearch

Mark M. Clark; Russell D. Meller; Timothy P. McDonald; Chao Chi Ting

1997-01-01

The authors develop a new model for harvest operation costs that can be used to evaluate stands for potential harvest. The model is based on felling, extraction, and access costs, and is unique in its consideration of the interaction between harvest area shapes and access roads. The scientists illustrate the model and evaluate the impact of stand size, volume, and road...

Superinfection between Influenza and RSV Alternating Patterns in San Luis Potosí State, México

PubMed Central

Velasco-Hernández, Jorge Xicoténcatl; Núñez-López, Mayra; Comas-García, Andreu; Cherpitel, Daniel Ernesto Noyola; Ocampo, Marcos Capistrán

2015-01-01

The objective of this paper is to explain through the ecological hypothesis superinfection and competitive interaction between two viral populations and niche (host) availability, the alternating patterns of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and influenza observed in a regional hospital in San Luis Potosí State, México using a mathematical model as a methodological tool. The data analyzed consists of community-based and hospital-based Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) consultations provided by health-care institutions reported to the State Health Service Epidemiology Department from 2003 through 2009. PMID:25803450

Quantifying the transport impacts of domestic waste collection strategies.

PubMed

McLeod, Fraser; Cherrett, Tom

2008-11-01

This paper models the effects of three different options for domestic waste collection using data from three Hampshire authorities: (i) joint working between neighbouring waste collection authorities; (ii) basing vehicles at waste disposal sites; and (iii) alternate weekly collection of residual waste and dry recyclables. A vehicle mileage savings of 3% was modelled for joint working, where existing vehicle allocations to depots were maintained, which increased to 5.9% when vehicles were re-allocated to depots optimally. Vehicle mileage was reduced by 13.5% when the collection rounds were based out of the two waste disposal sites rather than out of the existing depots, suggesting that the former could be the most effective place to keep vehicles providing that travel arrangements for the crews could be made. Alternate weekly collection was modelled to reduce vehicle mileage by around 8% and time taken by 14%, when compared with a typical scenario of weekly collection of residual and fortnightly collection of recyclable waste. These results were based on an assumption that 20% of the residual waste would be directly diverted into the dry recyclables waste stream.

Gene-expression programming for flip-bucket spillway scour.

PubMed

Guven, Aytac; Azamathulla, H Md

2012-01-01

During the last two decades, researchers have noticed that the use of soft computing techniques as an alternative to conventional statistical methods based on controlled laboratory or field data, gave significantly better results. Gene-expression programming (GEP), which is an extension to genetic programming (GP), has nowadays attracted the attention of researchers in prediction of hydraulic data. This study presents GEP as an alternative tool in the prediction of scour downstream of a flip-bucket spillway. Actual field measurements were used to develop GEP models. The proposed GEP models are compared with the earlier conventional GP results of others (Azamathulla et al. 2008b; RMSE = 2.347, δ = 0.377, R = 0.842) and those of commonly used regression-based formulae. The predictions of GEP models were observed to be in strictly good agreement with measured ones, and quite a bit better than conventional GP and the regression-based formulae. The results are tabulated in terms of statistical error measures (GEP1; RMSE = 1.596, δ = 0.109, R = 0.917) and illustrated via scatter plots.

Soil mechanics: breaking ground.

PubMed

Einav, Itai

2007-12-15

In soil mechanics, student's models are classified as simple models that teach us unexplained elements of behaviour; an example is the Cam clay constitutive models of critical state soil mechanics (CSSM). 'Engineer's models' are models that elaborate the theory to fit more behavioural trends; this is usually done by adding fitting parameters to the student's models. Can currently unexplained behavioural trends of soil be explained without adding fitting parameters to CSSM models, by developing alternative student's models based on modern theories?Here I apply an alternative theory to CSSM, called 'breakage mechanics', and develop a simple student's model for sand. Its unique and distinctive feature is the use of an energy balance equation that connects grain size reduction to consumption of energy, which enables us to predict how grain size distribution (gsd) evolves-an unprecedented capability in constitutive modelling. With only four parameters, the model is physically clarifying what CSSM cannot for sand: the dependency of yielding and critical state on the initial gsd and void ratio.

Multi objective decision making in hybrid energy system design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merino, Gabriel Guillermo

The design of grid-connected photovoltaic wind generator system supplying a farmstead in Nebraska has been undertaken in this dissertation. The design process took into account competing criteria that motivate the use of different sources of energy for electric generation. The criteria considered were 'Financial', 'Environmental', and 'User/System compatibility'. A distance based multi-objective decision making methodology was developed to rank design alternatives. The method is based upon a precedence order imposed upon the design objectives and a distance metric describing the performance of each alternative. This methodology advances previous work by combining ambiguous information about the alternatives with a decision-maker imposed precedence order in the objectives. Design alternatives, defined by the photovoltaic array and wind generator installed capacities, were analyzed using the multi-objective decision making approach. The performance of the design alternatives was determined by simulating the system using hourly data for an electric load for a farmstead and hourly averages of solar irradiation, temperature and wind speed from eight wind-solar energy monitoring sites in Nebraska. The spatial variability of the solar energy resource within the region was assessed by determining semivariogram models to krige hourly and daily solar radiation data. No significant difference was found in the predicted performance of the system when using kriged solar radiation data, with the models generated vs. using actual data. The spatial variability of the combined wind and solar energy resources was included in the design analysis by using fuzzy numbers and arithmetic. The best alternative was dependent upon the precedence order assumed for the main criteria. Alternatives with no PV array or wind generator dominated when the 'Financial' criteria preceded the others. In contrast, alternatives with a nil component of PV array but a high wind generator component, dominated when the 'Environment' objective or the 'User/System compatibility' objectives were more important than the 'Financial' objectives and they also dominated when the three criteria were considered equally important.

Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coulibaly, Lassina; Jakus, Paul M.; Keith, John E.

2014-07-01

A significant portion of the world's population lives in areas where public water delivery systems are unreliable and/or deliver poor quality water. In response, people have developed important alternatives to publicly supplied water. To date, most water demand research has been based on single-equation models for a single source of water, with very few studies that have examined water demand from two sources of water (where all nonpublic system water sources have been aggregated into a single demand). This modeling approach leads to two outcomes. First, the demand models do not capture the full range of alternatives, so the true economic relationship among the alternatives is obscured. Second, and more seriously, economic theory predicts that demand for a good becomes more price-elastic as the number of close substitutes increases. If researchers artificially limit the number of alternatives studied to something less than the true number, the price elasticity estimate may be biased downward. This paper examines water demand in a region with near universal access to piped water, but where system reliability and quality is such that many alternative sources of water exist. In extending the demand analysis to four sources of water, we are able to (i) demonstrate why households choose the water sources they do, (ii) provide a richer description of the demand relationships among sources, and (iii) calculate own-price elasticity estimates that are more elastic than those generally found in the literature.

Physically based estimation of soil water retention from textural data: General framework, new models, and streamlined existing models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nimmo, J.R.; Herkelrath, W.N.; Laguna, Luna A.M.

2007-01-01

Numerous models are in widespread use for the estimation of soil water retention from more easily measured textural data. Improved models are needed for better prediction and wider applicability. We developed a basic framework from which new and existing models can be derived to facilitate improvements. Starting from the assumption that every particle has a characteristic dimension R associated uniquely with a matric pressure ?? and that the form of the ??-R relation is the defining characteristic of each model, this framework leads to particular models by specification of geometric relationships between pores and particles. Typical assumptions are that particles are spheres, pores are cylinders with volume equal to the associated particle volume times the void ratio, and that the capillary inverse proportionality between radius and matric pressure is valid. Examples include fixed-pore-shape and fixed-pore-length models. We also developed alternative versions of the model of Arya and Paris that eliminate its interval-size dependence and other problems. The alternative models are calculable by direct application of algebraic formulas rather than manipulation of data tables and intermediate results, and they easily combine with other models (e.g., incorporating structural effects) that are formulated on a continuous basis. Additionally, we developed a family of models based on the same pore geometry as the widely used unsaturated hydraulic conductivity model of Mualem. Predictions of measurements for different suitable media show that some of the models provide consistently good results and can be chosen based on ease of calculations and other factors. ?? Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

42 CFR § 414.1390 - Data validation and auditing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1390 Data validation...

Linear models: permutation methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Everitt, B.S.; Howell, D.C.

2005-01-01

Permutation tests (see Permutation Based Inference) for the linear model have applications in behavioral studies when traditional parametric assumptions about the error term in a linear model are not tenable. Improved validity of Type I error rates can be achieved with properly constructed permutation tests. Perhaps more importantly, increased statistical power, improved robustness to effects of outliers, and detection of alternative distributional differences can be achieved by coupling permutation inference with alternative linear model estimators. For example, it is well-known that estimates of the mean in linear model are extremely sensitive to even a single outlying value of the dependent variable compared to estimates of the median [7, 19]. Traditionally, linear modeling focused on estimating changes in the center of distributions (means or medians). However, quantile regression allows distributional changes to be estimated in all or any selected part of a distribution or responses, providing a more complete statistical picture that has relevance to many biological questions [6]...

Model-Based Development of Automotive Electronic Climate Control Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakade, Rupesh; Murugesan, Mohan; Perugu, Bhupal; Nair, Mohanan

With increasing complexity of software in today's products, writing and maintaining thousands of lines of code is a tedious task. Instead, an alternative methodology must be employed. Model-based development is one candidate that offers several benefits and allows engineers to focus on the domain of their expertise than writing huge codes. In this paper, we discuss the application of model-based development to the electronic climate control software of vehicles. The back-to-back testing approach is presented that ensures flawless and smooth transition from legacy designs to the model-based development. Simulink report generator to create design documents from the models is presented along with its usage to run the simulation model and capture the results into the test report. Test automation using model-based development tool that support the use of unique set of test cases for several testing levels and the test procedure that is independent of software and hardware platform is also presented.

Modeling Mode Choice Behavior Incorporating Household and Individual Sociodemographics and Travel Attributes Based on Rough Sets Theory

PubMed Central

Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

2014-01-01

Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling. PMID:25431585

Numerical modelling to assess maintenance strategy management options for a small tidal inlet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaeri, Saeed; Tomlinson, Rodger; Etemad-Shahidi, Amir; Strauss, Darrell

2017-03-01

Small tidal inlets are found to be more sensitive to anthropogenic alteration than their larger counterparts. Such alterations, although typically supported by technical design reports, sometimes require amendments or modification. One of the most suitable tools to conduct the necessary studies in this regard is numerical modelling, since the behaviour of the inlet system in response to proposed remedial actions, can easily be identified. In this paper, various alternative proposals are investigated to determine the most practical and viable option to mitigate the need for ongoing maintenance at a typical small, jettied tidal inlet. The main tool to investigate the alternatives is the hydro-sedimentological modelling of the inlet system, which was performed using the Delft3D software package. The proposed alternative entrance modifications were based upon structural alterations of the inlet system (such as a jetty extension or submerged weir) and non-structural scenarios (such as a change of the time of the dredging campaign or the deposition location of the dredged material). It was concluded that whilst a detailed study is inevitable in order to achieve a comprehensive design plan, based upon the results of this study the construction of a submerged weir at the entrance channel can satisfy the needs of most of the stakeholders, with justifiable costs over a longer period.

Life-cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management alternatives with consideration of uncertainty: SIWMS development and application.

PubMed

Hanandeh, Ali El; El-Zein, Abbas

2010-05-01

This paper describes the development and application of the Stochastic Integrated Waste Management Simulator (SIWMS) model. SIWMS provides a detailed view of the environmental impacts and associated costs of municipal solid waste (MSW) management alternatives under conditions of uncertainty. The model follows a life-cycle inventory approach extended with compensatory systems to provide more equitable bases for comparing different alternatives. Economic performance is measured by the net present value. The model is verified against four publicly available models under deterministic conditions and then used to study the impact of uncertainty on Sydney's MSW management 'best practices'. Uncertainty has a significant effect on all impact categories. The greatest effect is observed in the global warming category where a reversal of impact direction is predicted. The reliability of the system is most sensitive to uncertainties in the waste processing and disposal. The results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty at all stages to better understand the behaviour of the MSW system. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of a hybrid medication distribution system to simulated decentralized distribution models.

PubMed

Gray, John P; Ludwig, Brad; Temple, Jack; Melby, Michael; Rough, Steve

2013-08-01

The results of a study to estimate the human resource and cost implications of changing the medication distribution model at a large medical center are presented. A two-part study was conducted to evaluate alternatives to the hospital's existing hybrid distribution model (64% of doses dispensed via cart fill and 36% via automated dispensing cabinets [ADCs]). An assessment of nurse, pharmacist, and pharmacy technician workloads within the hybrid system was performed through direct observation, with time standards calculated for each dispensing task; similar time studies were conducted at a comparator hospital with a decentralized medication distribution system involving greater use of ADCs. The time study data were then used in simulation modeling of alternative distribution scenarios: one involving no use of cart fill, one involving no use of ADCs, and one heavily dependent on ADC dispensing (89% via ADC and 11% via cart fill). Simulation of the base-case and alternative scenarios indicated that as the modeled percentage of doses dispensed from ADCs rose, the calculated pharmacy technician labor requirements decreased, with a proportionately greater increase in the nursing staff workload. Given that nurses are a higher-cost resource than pharmacy technicians, the projected human resource opportunity cost of transitioning from the hybrid system to a decentralized system similar to the comparator facility's was estimated at $229,691 per annum. Based on the simulation results, it was decided that a transition from the existing hybrid medication distribution system to a more ADC-dependent model would result in an unfavorable shift in staff skill mix and corresponding human resource costs at the medical center.

Internet Banking Adoption: Case of Lithuania and Latvia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaile-Sarkane, Elina; Jureviciene, Diva; Skvarciany, Viktorija; Iljins, Juris

2017-01-01

The banking sector has developed and extended usage of different services at a distance using the internet in the last decade. Internet-based banking services dominate over other historically provided alternatives. This paper explores the adoption of internet banking in Lithuania and Latvia. Internet banking success model was developed based on…

Impacting Home Health Care Services--A Community-Based Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Hans A.; And Others

1978-01-01

Describes a community-based alternative to institutionalization of the elderly. Calhoun County, Michigan's home health care services depend on community college resources and a growing model program training health care aides in a 150-clock-hour certificate program. Trained aides are readily absorbed into the community employment market. (TR)

42 CFR § 414.1370 - APM scoring standard under MIPS.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1370 APM scoring... Participation List; (3) The APM bases payment on cost/utilization and quality measures; and (4) The APM is not...

Heterogeneity to Homogeneity: Synthesis, Base Pairing, and Ligation Studies of 4',3'-XyluloNA/RNA and TNA/RNA Chimeric Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhowmik, S.; Stoop, M.; Krishnamurthy, R.

2017-07-01

Based on the reality of "prebiotic clutter," we herein present an alternate model for pre-RNA to RNA transition, which starts, not with homogeneous-backbone system, but rather with mixtures of heterogeneous-backbone of chimeric "pre-RNA/RNA."

CABS-fold: Server for the de novo and consensus-based prediction of protein structure.

PubMed

Blaszczyk, Maciej; Jamroz, Michal; Kmiecik, Sebastian; Kolinski, Andrzej

2013-07-01

The CABS-fold web server provides tools for protein structure prediction from sequence only (de novo modeling) and also using alternative templates (consensus modeling). The web server is based on the CABS modeling procedures ranked in previous Critical Assessment of techniques for protein Structure Prediction competitions as one of the leading approaches for de novo and template-based modeling. Except for template data, fragmentary distance restraints can also be incorporated into the modeling process. The web server output is a coarse-grained trajectory of generated conformations, its Jmol representation and predicted models in all-atom resolution (together with accompanying analysis). CABS-fold can be freely accessed at http://biocomp.chem.uw.edu.pl/CABSfold.

CABS-fold: server for the de novo and consensus-based prediction of protein structure

PubMed Central

Blaszczyk, Maciej; Jamroz, Michal; Kmiecik, Sebastian; Kolinski, Andrzej

2013-01-01

The CABS-fold web server provides tools for protein structure prediction from sequence only (de novo modeling) and also using alternative templates (consensus modeling). The web server is based on the CABS modeling procedures ranked in previous Critical Assessment of techniques for protein Structure Prediction competitions as one of the leading approaches for de novo and template-based modeling. Except for template data, fragmentary distance restraints can also be incorporated into the modeling process. The web server output is a coarse-grained trajectory of generated conformations, its Jmol representation and predicted models in all-atom resolution (together with accompanying analysis). CABS-fold can be freely accessed at http://biocomp.chem.uw.edu.pl/CABSfold. PMID:23748950

A Lakatosian Conceptual Change Teaching Strategy Based on Student Ability to Build Models with Varying Degrees of Conceptual Understanding of Chemical Equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niaz, M.

The main objective of this study is to construct a Lakatosian teaching strategy that can facilitate conceptual change in students'' understanding of chemical equilibrium. The strategy is based on the premise that cognitive conflicts must have been engendered by the students themselves in trying to cope with different problem solving strategies. Results obtained (based on Venezuelan freshman students) show that the performance of the experimental group of students was generally better (especially on the immediate post tests) than that of the control group. It is concluded that a conceptual change teaching strategy must take into consideration the following aspects: a) core beliefs of the students in the topic (cf. ''hard core'', Lakatos 1970); b) exploration of the relationship between core beliefs and student alternative conceptions (misconceptions); c) cognitive complexity of the core belief can be broken down into a series of related and probing questions; d) students resist changes in their core beliefs by postulating ''auxiliary hypotheses'' in order to resolve their contradictions; e) students'' responses based on their alternative conceptions must be considered not as wrong, but rather as models, perhaps in the same sense as used by scientists to break the complexity of a problem; and f) students'' misconceptions be considered as alternative conceptions (theories) that compete with the present scientific theories and at times recapitulate theories scientists held in the past.

Methylene blue binding to DNA with alternating AT base sequence: minor groove binding is favored over intercalation.

PubMed

Rohs, Remo; Sklenar, Heinz

2004-04-01

The results presented in this paper on methylene blue (MB) binding to DNA with AT alternating base sequence complement the data obtained in two former modeling studies of MB binding to GC alternating DNA. In the light of the large amount of experimental data for both systems, this theoretical study is focused on a detailed energetic analysis and comparison in order to understand their different behavior. Since experimental high-resolution structures of the complexes are not available, the analysis is based on energy minimized structural models of the complexes in different binding modes. For both sequences, four different intercalation structures and two models for MB binding in the minor and major groove have been proposed. Solvent electrostatic effects were included in the energetic analysis by using electrostatic continuum theory, and the dependence of MB binding on salt concentration was investigated by solving the non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann equation. We find that the relative stability of the different complexes is similar for the two sequences, in agreement with the interpretation of spectroscopic data. Subtle differences, however, are seen in energy decompositions and can be attributed to the change from symmetric 5'-YpR-3' intercalation to minor groove binding with increasing salt concentration, which is experimentally observed for the AT sequence at lower salt concentration than for the GC sequence. According to our results, this difference is due to the significantly lower non-electrostatic energy for the minor groove complex with AT alternating DNA, whereas the slightly lower binding energy to this sequence is caused by a higher deformation energy of DNA. The energetic data are in agreement with the conclusions derived from different spectroscopic studies and can also be structurally interpreted on the basis of the modeled complexes. The simple static modeling technique and the neglect of entropy terms and of non-electrostatic solute-solvent interactions, which are assumed to be nearly constant for the compared complexes of MB with DNA, seem to be justified by the results.

Theoretical Models of Comprehension Skills Tested through a Comprehension Assessment Battery for Primary School Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tobia, Valentina; Ciancaleoni, Matteo; Bonifacci, Paola

2017-01-01

In this study, two alternative theoretical models were compared, in order to analyze which of them best explains primary school children's text comprehension skills. The first one was based on the distinction between two types of answers requested by the comprehension test: local or global. The second model involved texts' input modality: written…

Hypothesis testing of a change point during cognitive decline among Alzheimer's disease patients.

PubMed

Ji, Ming; Xiong, Chengjie; Grundman, Michael

2003-10-01

In this paper, we present a statistical hypothesis test for detecting a change point over the course of cognitive decline among Alzheimer's disease patients. The model under the null hypothesis assumes a constant rate of cognitive decline over time and the model under the alternative hypothesis is a general bilinear model with an unknown change point. When the change point is unknown, however, the null distribution of the test statistics is not analytically tractable and has to be simulated by parametric bootstrap. When the alternative hypothesis that a change point exists is accepted, we propose an estimate of its location based on the Akaike's Information Criterion. We applied our method to a data set from the Neuropsychological Database Initiative by implementing our hypothesis testing method to analyze Mini Mental Status Exam scores based on a random-slope and random-intercept model with a bilinear fixed effect. Our result shows that despite large amount of missing data, accelerated decline did occur for MMSE among AD patients. Our finding supports the clinical belief of the existence of a change point during cognitive decline among AD patients and suggests the use of change point models for the longitudinal modeling of cognitive decline in AD research.

Subtle alternating electrocardiographic morphology as an indicator of decreased cardiac electrical stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. M.; Blue, B.; Clancy, E.; Valeri, C. R.; Cohen, R. J.

1985-01-01

Observations from finite-element computer models, together with analytic developments based on percolation theory have suggested that subtle fluctuations of ECG morphology might serve as an indicator diminished cardiac electrical stability. With fixed-rate atrial pacing in canines, we have previously observed a pattern of alternation in T wave energy which correlated with cardiac electrical stability. We report here on a series of 20 canine experiments in which cardiac electrical stability (measured via Ventricular Fibrillation Threshold determination) was compared to a non-degenerate, multidimensional measurement of the degree of alternating activity present in the ECG complex morphology. The decrease in cardiac electrical stability brought on by both coronary artery occlusion and systemic hypothermia was consistently accompanied by subtle alternation in ECG morphology, with the absolute degree of alternating activity being significantly (negatively) correlated with cardiac electrical stability.

Transportation Planning for Your Community

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

The Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS) is a computer model designed to simulate improvement selection decisions based on the relative benefit-cost merits of alternative improvement options. HERS is intended to estimate national level investm...

42 CFR § 414.1400 - Third party data submission.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

... SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive § 414.1400 Third party data...

42 CFR § 414.1365 - Subcategories for the improvement activities performance category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive...

Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

2003-01-01

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Investigation of molten pool oscillation during GMAW-P process based on a 3D model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L. L.; Lu, F. G.; Cui, H. C.; Tang, X. H.

2014-11-01

In order to better reveal the oscillation mechanism of the pulsed gas metal arc welding (GMAW-P) process due to an alternately varied welding current, arc plasma and molten pool oscillation were simulated through a self-consistent three-dimensional model. Based on an experimental analysis of the dynamic variation of the arc plasma and molten pool captured by a high-speed camera, the model was validated by comparison of the measured and predicted results. The calculated results showed that arc pressure was the key factor causing the molten pool to oscillate. The variation in arc size and temperature from peak time to base time resulted in a great difference in the heat input and arc pressure acting on the molten pool. The surface deformation of the molten pool due to the varying degrees of arc pressure induced alternate displacement and backflow in the molten metal. The periodic iteration of deeper and shallower surface deformation, drain and backflow of molten metal caused the molten pool to oscillate at a certain frequency. In this condition, the arc pressure at the peak time is more than six times higher than that at the base time, and the maximum surface depression is 1.4 mm and 0.6 mm, respectively, for peak time and base time.

A simple next-best alternative to seasonal predictions in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buontempo, Carlo; De Felice, Matteo

2016-04-01

In order to build a climate proof society, we need to learn how to best use the climate information we have. Having spent time and resources in developing complex numerical models has often blinded us on the value some of this information really has in the eyes of a decision maker. An effective way to assess this is to check the quality of the forecast (and its cost) to the quality of the forecast from a prediction system based on simpler assumption (and thus cheaper to run). Such a practice is common in marketing analysis where it is often referred to as the next-best alternative. As a way to facilitate such an analysis, climate service providers should always provide alongside the predictions a set of skill scores. These are usually based on climatological means, anomaly persistence or more recently multiple linear regressions. We here present an equally simple benchmark based on a Markov chain process locally trained at a monthly or seasonal time-scale. We demonstrate that in spite of its simplicity the model easily outperforms not only the standard benchmark but also most of the seasonal predictions system at least in EUROPE. We suggest that a benchmark of this kind could represent a useful next-best alternative for a number of users.

Use of complementary and alternative medicine and breast cancer survival in the Health, Eating, Activity, and Lifestyle Study.

PubMed

Neuhouser, Marian L; Smith, Ashley Wilder; George, Stephanie M; Gibson, James T; Baumgartner, Kathy B; Baumgartner, Richard; Duggan, Catherine; Bernstein, Leslie; McTiernan, Anne; Ballard, Rachel

2016-12-01

Use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is common among breast cancer patients, but less is known about whether CAM influences breast cancer survival. Health Eating, Activity, and Lifestyle (HEAL) Study participants (n = 707) were diagnosed with stage I-IIIA breast cancer. Participants completed a 30-month post-diagnosis interview including questions on CAM use (natural products such as dietary and botanical supplements, alternative health practices, and alternative medical systems), weight, physical activity, and comorbidities. Outcomes were breast cancer-specific and total mortality, which were ascertained from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registries in Western Washington, Los Angeles County, and New Mexico. Cox proportional hazards regression models were fit to data to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for mortality. Models were adjusted for potential confounding by sociodemographic, health, and cancer-related factors. Among 707 participants, 70 breast cancer-specific deaths and 149 total deaths were reported. 60.2 % of participants reported CAM use post-diagnosis. The most common CAM were natural products (51 %) including plant-based estrogenic supplements (42 %). Manipulative and body-based practices and alternative medical systems were used by 27 and 13 % of participants, respectively. No associations were observed between CAM use and breast cancer-specific (HR 1.04, 95 % CI 0.61-1.76) or total mortality (HR 0.91, 95 % CI 0.63-1.29). Complementary and alternative medicine use was not associated with breast cancer-specific mortality or total mortality. Randomized controlled trials may be needed to definitively test whether there is harm or benefit from the types of CAM assessed in HEAL in relation to mortality outcomes in breast cancer survivors.

Alternative methods to evaluate trial level surrogacy.

PubMed

Abrahantes, Josè Cortiñas; Shkedy, Ziv; Molenberghs, Geert

2008-01-01

The evaluation and validation of surrogate endpoints have been extensively studied in the last decade. Prentice [1] and Freedman, Graubard and Schatzkin [2] laid the foundations for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in randomized clinical trials. Later, Buyse et al. [5] proposed a meta-analytic methodology, producing different methods for different settings, which was further studied by Alonso and Molenberghs [9], in their unifying approach based on information theory. In this article, we focus our attention on the trial-level surrogacy and propose alternative procedures to evaluate such surrogacy measure, which do not pre-specify the type of association. A promising correction based on cross-validation is investigated. As well as the construction of confidence intervals for this measure. In order to avoid making assumption about the type of relationship between the treatment effects and its distribution, a collection of alternative methods, based on regression trees, bagging, random forests, and support vector machines, combined with bootstrap-based confidence interval and, should one wish, in conjunction with a cross-validation based correction, will be proposed and applied. We apply the various strategies to data from three clinical studies: in opthalmology, in advanced colorectal cancer, and in schizophrenia. The results obtained for the three case studies are compared; they indicate that using random forest or bagging models produces larger estimated values for the surrogacy measure, which are in general stabler and the confidence interval narrower than linear regression and support vector regression. For the advanced colorectal cancer studies, we even found the trial-level surrogacy is considerably different from what has been reported. In general the alternative methods are more computationally demanding, and specially the calculation of the confidence intervals, require more computational time that the delta-method counterpart. First, more flexible modeling techniques can be used, allowing for other type of association. Second, when no cross-validation-based correction is applied, overly optimistic trial-level surrogacy estimates will be found, thus cross-validation is highly recommendable. Third, the use of the delta method to calculate confidence intervals is not recommendable since it makes assumptions valid only in very large samples. It may also produce range-violating limits. We therefore recommend alternatives: bootstrap methods in general. Also, the information-theoretic approach produces comparable results with the bagging and random forest approaches, when cross-validation correction is applied. It is also important to observe that, even for the case in which the linear model might be a good option too, bagging methods perform well too, and their confidence intervals were more narrow.

Architectural Modelling of Alternatives for Verification of New Interventions on the Example of the Romanesque Palace at Spiš Castle in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregorová, Jana; Kalesný, František; Polomová, Beata; Vojteková, Eva

2017-10-01

The article presents the results of the first phase of the research project SK-VEGA 1/0951/16 on using transparent and translucent structures in historical buildings. The team of researchers from the Faculty of Architecture SUT Bratislava introduces possibilities of using lightweight roofs on the model example of a dominant medieval ruin (Romanesque Palace, Spiš Castle, UNESCO site). Architectural 3D-modelling of alternatives gains new methodical importance in conditions, when in real practice only safeguarding conservation approaches are preferred. Research based on design serves as a tool for decision-making on further restoration approaches to a specific cultural heritage object. The selected Romanesque Palace of the Spiš Castle has passed through many structural periods. The interior doesn’t exist and the perimeter walls create a raised landscape landmark. Romanesque, gothic and renaissance periods were identifiable. It would be possible to reconstruct these periods partially hypothetically on the basis of saved archive materials. Inner structures and the roofing of the palace were in individual historical periods changed. Exact frame models of a new roofing were created on the principle of hypothetical reconstruction: from the indication of the medieval form, renaissance form until contemporary new forms respecting the present day horizontal palace’s topping. The aim of the first stage of the research was to present a few architectural alternatives of the roof structure refilling according to the given cultural heritage determinants and structural possibilities. We introduce 12 solutions in graphic and text, which present architectural models of a new roofing, covering the interior by transparent structure based on glass panels and translucent structures based on a textile membrane. We achieve a new space for new functional use of the palace by means of various ways of physical enclosing. On the other side, we work with alternatives of the perimeter wall perforation according to the historical periods. New inserted structures are designed in contemporary technologies and materials. An analysis of particular architectural proposals is the result. The shape, material selection (steel, timber), roof support structure selection and choice of transparent or translucent covering are subordinated to the architectural concept of the historical period’s presentation including contemporaneousness. The solved problem was, how new interventions are able to visually coexist with historical original without diminishing its authenticity. Glazed and membrane structures used for covering authentic ruins request professional architectural modelling of alternatives based on exact historical facts. The decision making process is made easier by visualizations. Structural shapes issued from original tectonic rules (standard, order) appear from the point of visual and also monument restoration criteria more favourable than structural shapes, which were not inspired by these rules. Plane shaped glazed roof shapes from this point of view seem to be more intrinsic than rounded. On the other side, alternatives with use of textile membranes have soft shape morphology, which is beneficial for new and also historic shapes of roofing in this researched example.

Methods in Enzymology: “Flexible backbone sampling methods to model and design protein alternative conformations”

PubMed Central

Ollikainen, Noah; Smith, Colin A.; Fraser, James S.; Kortemme, Tanja

2013-01-01

Sampling alternative conformations is key to understanding how proteins work and engineering them for new functions. However, accurately characterizing and modeling protein conformational ensembles remains experimentally and computationally challenging. These challenges must be met before protein conformational heterogeneity can be exploited in protein engineering and design. Here, as a stepping stone, we describe methods to detect alternative conformations in proteins and strategies to model these near-native conformational changes based on backrub-type Monte Carlo moves in Rosetta. We illustrate how Rosetta simulations that apply backrub moves improve modeling of point mutant side chain conformations, native side chain conformational heterogeneity, functional conformational changes, tolerated sequence space, protein interaction specificity, and amino acid co-variation across protein-protein interfaces. We include relevant Rosetta command lines and RosettaScripts to encourage the application of these types of simulations to other systems. Our work highlights that critical scoring and sampling improvements will be necessary to approximate conformational landscapes. Challenges for the future development of these methods include modeling conformational changes that propagate away from designed mutation sites and modulating backbone flexibility to predictively design functionally important conformational heterogeneity. PMID:23422426

Analysis of the aging/stability process of organic solar cells based on PTB7:[70]PCBM and an alternative free-vacuum deposited cathode: the effect of active layer scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barreiro-Argüelles, Denisse; Ramos-Ortiz, Gabriel; Maldonado, José-Luis L.; Romero-Borja, Daniel; Meneses-Nava, Marco-Antonio; Pérez-Gutiérrez, Enrique

2017-08-01

The PV performance and aging/stability of organic photovoltaic (OPV) devices based on the well-known system PTB7:[70]PCBM and an alternative air-stable electrode deposited at room conditions are fully studied when the active area is scaled by a factor of 25. On the other hand, the aging/stability processes were also studied through single diode model, impedance spectroscopy and light-beam induced current (LBIC) measurements in accordance with the established ISOS-D1 (dark storage) and ISOS-L1 (illumination conditions) protocols. Results are a good indication that the alternative cathode Field's metal (FM) cathode works as an encapsulating material and provides excellent PV performance comparable with the common and costly high-vacuum evaporated Al cathode.

Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies

Treesearch

Y. He; Q. Zhuang; A.D. McGuire; Y. Liu; M. Chen

2013-01-01

Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations inmodeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the...

Video feedforward for rapid learning of a picture-based communication system.

PubMed

Smith, Jemma; Hand, Linda; Dowrick, Peter W

2014-04-01

This study examined the efficacy of video self modeling (VSM) using feedforward, to teach various goals of a picture exchange communication system (PECS). The participants were two boys with autism and one man with Down syndrome. All three participants were non-verbal with no current functional system of communication; the two children had long histories of PECS failure. A series of replications, with different length baselines, was used to examine whether video self modeling could replace the PECS method of teaching to achieve the same goals. All three participants showed rapid learning of their target behavior when introduced to their self modeling videos, and effects generalized without the need for further intervention. We conclude that VSM, using feedforward, can provide a fast, simple way of teaching the use of a picture-based communication system without the need for prompts or intensive operant conditioning. VSM may provide an accessible, easy-to-use alternative to common methods of teaching augmentative and alternative communication systems.

Parameter estimation methods for gene circuit modeling from time-series mRNA data: a comparative study.

PubMed

Fan, Ming; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Wang, Xiaolei; Wang, Suojin; Gao, Xin

2015-11-01

Parameter estimation is a challenging computational problem in the reverse engineering of biological systems. Because advances in biotechnology have facilitated wide availability of time-series gene expression data, systematic parameter estimation of gene circuit models from such time-series mRNA data has become an important method for quantitatively dissecting the regulation of gene expression. By focusing on the modeling of gene circuits, we examine here the performance of three types of state-of-the-art parameter estimation methods: population-based methods, online methods and model-decomposition-based methods. Our results show that certain population-based methods are able to generate high-quality parameter solutions. The performance of these methods, however, is heavily dependent on the size of the parameter search space, and their computational requirements substantially increase as the size of the search space increases. In comparison, online methods and model decomposition-based methods are computationally faster alternatives and are less dependent on the size of the search space. Among other things, our results show that a hybrid approach that augments computationally fast methods with local search as a subsequent refinement procedure can substantially increase the quality of their parameter estimates to the level on par with the best solution obtained from the population-based methods while maintaining high computational speed. These suggest that such hybrid methods can be a promising alternative to the more commonly used population-based methods for parameter estimation of gene circuit models when limited prior knowledge about the underlying regulatory mechanisms makes the size of the parameter search space vastly large. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The models for financial crisis detection in Indonesia based on import, export, and foreign exchange reserves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyanto; Wibowo, Supriyadi; Rizky Aristina Suwardi, Vivi

2017-12-01

The severity of the financial crisis that occurred in Indonesia required an early warning system of financial crisis. The financial crisis in Indonesia can be detected based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves. The purpose of the research is to determine an appropriate model to detect the financial crisis in Indonesia based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves. Markov switching is an alternative framework for the approach often used in financial crisis detection. Combined volatility and Markov switching model with three states assumptions can be established if an AR and volatility models have been obtained. Imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves data from January 1990 to December 2016 have the heteroscedasticity effect so that an ARCH model is used as a volatility model. Research shows that SWARCH(3.1) model is an appropriate model for detecting financial crisis in Indonesia based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves.

Accounting for costs, QALYs, and capacity constraints: using discrete-event simulation to evaluate alternative service delivery and organizational scenarios for hospital-based glaucoma services.

PubMed

Crane, Glenis J; Kymes, Steven M; Hiller, Janet E; Casson, Robert; Martin, Adam; Karnon, Jonathan D

2013-11-01

Decision-analytic models are routinely used as a framework for cost-effectiveness analyses of health care services and technologies; however, these models mostly ignore resource constraints. In this study, we use a discrete-event simulation model to inform a cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative options for the organization and delivery of clinical services in the ophthalmology department of a public hospital. The model is novel, given that it represents both disease outcomes and resource constraints in a routine clinical setting. A 5-year discrete-event simulation model representing glaucoma patient services at the Royal Adelaide Hospital (RAH) was implemented and calibrated to patient-level data. The data were sourced from routinely collected waiting and appointment lists, patient record data, and the published literature. Patient-level costs and quality-adjusted life years were estimated for a range of alternative scenarios, including combinations of alternate follow-up times, booking cycles, and treatment pathways. The model shows that a) extending booking cycle length from 4 to 6 months, b) extending follow-up visit times by 2 to 3 months, and c) using laser in preference to medication are more cost-effective than current practice at the RAH eye clinic. The current simulation model provides a useful tool for informing improvements in the organization and delivery of glaucoma services at a local level (e.g., within a hospital), on the basis of expected effects on costs and health outcomes while accounting for current capacity constraints. Our model may be adapted to represent glaucoma services at other hospitals, whereas the general modeling approach could be applied to many other clinical service areas.

Study protocol for a comparative effectiveness trial of two models of perinatal integrated psychosocial assessment: the PIPA project.

PubMed

Reilly, Nicole; Black, Emma; Chambers, Georgina M; Schmied, Virginia; Matthey, Stephen; Farrell, Josephine; Kingston, Dawn; Bisits, Andrew; Austin, Marie-Paule

2017-07-20

Studies examining psychosocial and depression assessment programs in maternity settings have not adequately considered the context in which psychosocial assessment occurs or how broader components of integrated care, including clinician decision-making aids, may optimise program delivery and its cost-effectiveness. There is also limited evidence relating to the diagnostic accuracy of symptom-based screening measures used in this context. The Perinatal Integrated Psychosocial Assessment (PIPA) Project was developed to address these knowledge gaps. The primary aims of the PIPA Project are to examine the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of two alternative models of integrated psychosocial care during pregnancy: 'care as usual' (the SAFE START model) and an alternative model (the PIPA model). The acceptability and perceived benefit of each model of care from the perspective of both pregnant women and their healthcare providers will also be assessed. Our secondary aim is to examine the psychometric properties of a number of symptom-based screening tools for depression and anxiety when used in pregnancy. This is a comparative-effectiveness study comparing 'care as usual' to an alternative model sequentially over two 12-month periods. Data will be collected from women at Time 1 (initial antenatal psychosocial assessment), Time 2 (2-weeks after Time 1) and from clinicians at Time 3 for each condition. Primary aims will be evaluated using a between-groups design, and the secondary aim using a within group design. The PIPA Project will provide evidence relating to the clinical- and cost- effectiveness of psychosocial assessment integrated with electronic clinician decision making prompts, and referral options that are tailored to the woman's psychosocial risk, in the maternity care setting. It will also address research recommendations from the Australian (2011) and NICE (2015) Clinical Practice Guidelines. ACTRN12617000932369.

Modeling and optimization of lipid accumulation by Yarrowia lipolytica from glucose under nitrogen depletion conditions.

PubMed

Robles-Rodríguez, Carlos E; Muñoz-Tamayo, Rafael; Bideaux, Carine; Gorret, Nathalie; Guillouet, Stéphane E; Molina-Jouve, Carole; Roux, Gilles; Aceves-Lara, César A

2018-05-01

Oleaginous yeasts have been seen as a feasible alternative to produce the precursors of biodiesel due to their capacity to accumulate lipids as triacylglycerol having profiles with high content of unsaturated fatty acids. The yeast Yarrowia lipolytica is a promising microorganism that can produce lipids under nitrogen depletion conditions and excess of the carbon source. However, under these conditions, this yeast also produces citric acid (overflow metabolism) decreasing lipid productivity. This work presents two mathematical models for lipid production by Y. lipolytica from glucose. The first model is based on Monod and inhibition kinetics, and the second one is based on the Droop quota model approach, which is extended to yeast. The two models showed good agreements with the experimental data used for calibration and validation. The quota based model presented a better description of the dynamics of nitrogen and glucose dynamics leading to a good management of N/C ratio which makes this model interesting for control purposes. Then, quota model was used to evaluate, by means of simulation, a scenario for optimizing lipid productivity and lipid content. For that, a control strategy was designed by approximating the flow rates of glucose and nitrogen with piecewise linear functions. Simulation results achieved productivity of 0.95 g L -1  hr -1 and lipid content fraction of 0.23 g g -1 , which indicates that this strategy is a promising alternative for the optimization of lipid production. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The role of propriospinal neuronal network in transmitting the alternating muscular activities of flexor and extensor in parkinsonian tremor.

PubMed

Hao, M; He, X; Lan, N

2012-01-01

It has been shown that normal cyclic movement of human arm and resting limb tremor in Parkinson's disease (PD) are associated with the oscillatory neuronal activities in different cerebral networks, which are transmitted to the antagonistic muscles via the same spinal pathway. There are mono-synaptic and multi-synaptic corticospinal pathways for conveying motor commands. This study investigates the plausible role of propriospinal neuronal (PN) network in the C3-C4 levels in multi-synaptic transmission of cortical commands for oscillatory movements. A PN network model is constructed based on known neurophysiological connections, and is hypothesized to achieve the conversion of cortical oscillations into alternating antagonistic muscle bursts. Simulations performed with a virtual arm (VA) model indicate that without the PN network, the alternating bursts of antagonistic muscle EMG could not be reliably generated, whereas with the PN network, the alternating pattern of bursts were naturally displayed in the three pairs of antagonist muscles. Thus, it is suggested that oscillations in the primary motor cortex (M1) of single and double tremor frequencies are processed at the PN network to compute the alternating burst pattern in the flexor and extensor muscles.

Wellness: An Alternative Paradigm for Violence Prevention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Makinson, Linda S.; Myers, Jane E.

2003-01-01

The authors address adolescent violence by promoting holistic health before symptoms occur and by using strength-based interventions to combat problems that already exist. A wellness model is presented, as is a discussion of research on the components of the model that are related to violence and violence prevention with adolescents. (Contains 49…

The Evocative Influence of Child Academic and Social-Emotional Adjustment on Parent Involvement in Inner-City Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoglund, Wendy L. G.; Jones, Stephanie M.; Brown, Joshua L.; Aber, J. Lawrence

2015-01-01

The current study examines 3 alternative conceptual models of the directional associations between parent involvement in schooling (homework assistance, home-school conferencing, school-based support) and child adjustment (academic and social competence, aggressive behaviors). The parent socialization model tests the hypothesis that parent…

Comparing Traditional versus Alternative Sequencing of Instruction When Using Simulation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowen, Bradley; DeLuca, William

2015-01-01

Many engineering and technology education classrooms incorporate simulation modeling as part of curricula to teach engineering and STEM-based concepts. The traditional method of the learning process has students first learn the content from the classroom teacher and then may have the opportunity to apply the learned content through simulation…

Exemplar-Based Clustering via Simulated Annealing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brusco, Michael J.; Kohn, Hans-Friedrich

2009-01-01

Several authors have touted the p-median model as a plausible alternative to within-cluster sums of squares (i.e., K-means) partitioning. Purported advantages of the p-median model include the provision of "exemplars" as cluster centers, robustness with respect to outliers, and the accommodation of a diverse range of similarity data. We developed…

A comparative study between nonlinear regression and artificial neural network approaches for modelling wild oat (Avena fatua) field emergence

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Non-linear regression techniques are used widely to fit weed field emergence patterns to soil microclimatic indices using S-type functions. Artificial neural networks present interesting and alternative features for such modeling purposes. In this work, a univariate hydrothermal-time based Weibull m...

Modeling Temporal and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services in Chittenden County, VT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, B. G.; Bagstad, K.; Johnson, G.; Villa, F.

2010-12-01

This paper documents the integration of ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) with the land use change model UrbanSim to explore the impacts of current and future land use patterns on flood protection and water provision services in Chittenden County, VT. ARIES, an open source modeling platform, is particularly well-suited for measuring, mapping, and modeling the temporal and spatial flows of ecosystem services across the landscape, linking the areas of provision (sources) with human beneficiaries (users) through a spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach. UrbanSim is an open source agent-based land use model designed to facilitate a wide-range of scenarios based on user-specified behavioral assumptions, zoning regulations, and demographic, economic, and infrastructure (e.g. transportation, water, sewer, etc.) parameters. Ecosystem services travel through time and space and are susceptible to disruption and destruction from both natural and anthropogenic perturbations. The conversion of forested or agricultural land to urbanizing uses is replete with a long history of hydrologic impairment, habitat fragmentation, and the degradation of sensitive landscapes. Development decisions are predicated on the presence of landscape characteristics that meet the needs of developers and satisfy the desires of consumers, with minimal consideration of access to or effect on the provision of ecosystem services. The County houses nearly 25% of the state’s population and several employment centers that draw labor from throughout the region. Additionally, the County is expected to maintain modest residential and employment growth over the next 30 years, and will continue to serve as the state’s population and employment center. Expected future growth is likely to adversely affect the remaining farm and forest land in the County in the absence of policies to support sustainable development. We demonstrate how ARIES can be used to quantify changes in ecosystem service provision based on the outcomes of alternative land use change model scenarios. Stakeholder workshops were hosted to develop scenarios relevant to planning for future growth in the County, including alternative zoning regulations, road network improvements, and a range of future population projections. The results of the land use change simulations were passed to ARIES to model flood protection and water provision services for each of the alternative scenarios. We present Bayesian models of the ecosystem services as individual source, sink, and use components coupled with models of temporal and spatial flows of services across the landscape. Specific beneficiaries include homeowners, farmers, and other business property owners. The location choice decisions of residential and non-residential agents under the alternative scenarios resulted in varying access to ecosystem services depending on development density, habitat fragmentation, and the degree of hydrological impairment, among other factors. Modeled outputs include maps depicting flow paths (linking sources to beneficiaries), changes in land use, hotspot locations that are critical to sustain the flow of services across the landscape, and the demand for and supply of the modeled services.

Economic models for prevention: making a system work for patients

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe alternative means of providing patient centered, preventive based, services using an alternative non-profit, economic model. Hard to reach, vulnerable groups, including children, adults and elders, often have difficulties accessing traditional dental services for a number of reasons, including economic barriers. By partnering with community organizations that serve these groups, collaborative services and new opportunities for access are provided. The concept of a dental home is well accepted as a means of providing care, and, for these groups, provision of such services within community settings provides a sustainable means of delivery. Dental homes provided through community partnerships can deliver evidence based dental care, focused on a preventive model to achieve and maintain oral health. By using a non-profit model, the entire dental team is provided with incentives to deliver measurable quality improvements in care, rather than a more traditional focus on volume of activity alone. Examples are provided that demonstrate how integrated oral health services can deliver improved health outcomes with the potential to reduce total costs while improving quality. PMID:26391814

Model-Based Clustering of Regression Time Series Data via APECM -- An AECM Algorithm Sung to an Even Faster Beat

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Wei-Chen; Maitra, Ranjan

2011-01-01

We propose a model-based approach for clustering time series regression data in an unsupervised machine learning framework to identify groups under the assumption that each mixture component follows a Gaussian autoregressive regression model of order p. Given the number of groups, the traditional maximum likelihood approach of estimating the parameters using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm can be employed, although it is computationally demanding. The somewhat fast tune to the EM folk song provided by the Alternating Expectation Conditional Maximization (AECM) algorithm can alleviate the problem to some extent. In this article, we develop an alternative partial expectation conditional maximization algorithmmore » (APECM) that uses an additional data augmentation storage step to efficiently implement AECM for finite mixture models. Results on our simulation experiments show improved performance in both fewer numbers of iterations and computation time. The methodology is applied to the problem of clustering mutual funds data on the basis of their average annual per cent returns and in the presence of economic indicators.« less

Healing the victim, the young offender, and the community via restorative justice: an international perspective.

PubMed

Goren, S

2001-03-01

The 1990s saw the enactment of much "get tough with young offenders" legislation in the United States. At the same, problems with our present punishment and treatment model, in which many youngsters cycle repeatedly through the justice and mental health systems, raised interest in restorative justice, a community-based alternative model emphasizing a balanced, negotiated approach to the needs of victims, offenders, and the community. After summarizing the philosophical bases underlying both models, this article describes the practice of restorative justice in New Zealand, where it was pioneered. Restorative justice has special relevance for Maori community in New Zealand and minority communities in the United States, where youth are consistently overrepresented in the courts, detention centers, and jails, and in which the juvenile justice system is seen as hostile and biased. Outcome data from New Zealand and early outcome research from the United States suggest that the restorative model, in which offenses are understood as a breakdown in social bonds, offers a hopeful alternative for offending youngsters, their families, and their communities.

Comparing statistical and machine learning classifiers: alternatives for predictive modeling in human factors research.

PubMed

Carnahan, Brian; Meyer, Gérard; Kuntz, Lois-Ann

2003-01-01

Multivariate classification models play an increasingly important role in human factors research. In the past, these models have been based primarily on discriminant analysis and logistic regression. Models developed from machine learning research offer the human factors professional a viable alternative to these traditional statistical classification methods. To illustrate this point, two machine learning approaches--genetic programming and decision tree induction--were used to construct classification models designed to predict whether or not a student truck driver would pass his or her commercial driver license (CDL) examination. The models were developed and validated using the curriculum scores and CDL exam performances of 37 student truck drivers who had completed a 320-hr driver training course. Results indicated that the machine learning classification models were superior to discriminant analysis and logistic regression in terms of predictive accuracy. Actual or potential applications of this research include the creation of models that more accurately predict human performance outcomes.

Generalization of the disruptive effects of alternative stimuli when combined with target stimuli in extinction.

PubMed

Podlesnik, Christopher A; Miranda-Dukoski, Ludmila; Jonas Chan, C K; Bland, Vikki J; Bai, John Y H

2017-09-01

Differential-reinforcement treatments reduce target problem behavior in the short term but at the expense of making it more persistent long term. Basic and translational research based on behavioral momentum theory suggests that combining features of stimuli governing an alternative response with the stimuli governing target responding could make target responding less persistent. However, changes to the alternative stimulus context when combining alternative and target stimuli could diminish the effectiveness of the alternative stimulus in reducing target responding. In an animal model with pigeons, the present study reinforced responding in the presence of target and alternative stimuli. When combining the alternative and target stimuli during extinction, we altered the alternative stimulus through changes in line orientation. We found that (1) combining alternative and target stimuli in extinction more effectively decreased target responding than presenting the target stimulus on its own; (2) combining these stimuli was more effective in decreasing target responding trained with lower reinforcement rates; and (3) changing the alternative stimulus reduced its effectiveness when it was combined with the target stimulus. Therefore, changing alternative stimuli (e.g., therapist, clinical setting) during behavioral treatments that combine alternative and target stimuli could reduce the effectiveness of those treatments in disrupting problem behavior. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

42 CFR § 414.1335 - Data submission criteria for the quality performance category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM (CONTINUED) PAYMENT FOR PART B MEDICAL AND OTHER HEALTH SERVICES Merit-Based Incentive Payment System and Alternative Payment Model Incentive...

Perceived game realism: a test of three alternative models.

PubMed

Ribbens, Wannes

2013-01-01

Perceived realism is considered a key concept in explaining the mental processing of media messages and the societal impact of media. Despite its importance, little is known about its conceptualization and dimensional structure, especially with regard to digital games. The aim of this study was to test a six-factor model of perceived game realism comprised of simulational realism, freedom of choice, perceptual pervasiveness, social realism, authenticity, and character involvement and to assess it against an alternative single- and five-factor model. Data were collected from 380 male digital game users who judged the realism of the first-person shooter Half-Life 2 based upon their previous experience with the game. Confirmatory factor analysis was applied to investigate which model fits the data best. The results support the six-factor model over the single- and five-factor solutions. The study contributes to our knowledge of perceived game realism by further developing its conceptualization and measurement.

From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models

PubMed Central

Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Robinson, D. T.; Murray-Rust, D.

2012-01-01

The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept. PMID:22144388

From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models.

PubMed

Rounsevell, M D A; Robinson, D T; Murray-Rust, D

2012-01-19

The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.

What if ? On alternative conceptual models and the problem of their implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuberg, Jurgen

2015-04-01

Seismic and other monitoring techniques rely on a set of conceptual models on the base of which data sets can be interpreted. In order to do this on an operational level in volcano observatories these models need to be tested and ready for an interpretation in a timely manner. Once established, scientists in charge advising stakeholders and decision makers often stick firmly to these models to avoid confusion by giving alternative versions of interpretations to non-experts. This talk gives an overview of widely accepted conceptual models to interpret seismic and deformation data, and highlights in a few case studies some of the arising problems. Aspects covered include knowledge transfer between research institutions and observatories, data sharing, the problem of up-taking advice, and some hidden problems which turn out to be much more critical in assessing volcanic hazard than the actual data interpretation.

A GIS-based approach for the screening assessment of noise and vibration impacts from transit projects.

PubMed

Hamed, Maged; Effat, Waleed

2007-08-01

Urban transportation projects are essential in increasing the efficiency of moving people and goods within a city, and between cities. Environmental impacts from such projects must be evaluated and mitigated, as applicable. Spatial modeling is a valuable tool for quantifying the potential level of environmental consequences within the context of an environmental impact assessment (EIA) study. This paper presents a GIS-based tool for the assessment of airborne-noise and ground-borne vibration from public transit systems, and its application to an actual project. The tool is based on the US Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) approach, and incorporates spatial information, satellite imaging, geostatistical modeling, and software programming. The tool is applied on a case study of initial environmental evaluation of a light rail transit project in an urban city in the Middle East, to evaluate alternative layouts. The tool readily allowed the alternative evaluation and the results were used as input to a multi-criteria analytic framework.

Water-Based Pressure-Sensitive Paints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, Jeffrey D.; Watkins, A. Neal; Oglesby, Donald M.; Ingram, JoAnne L.

2006-01-01

Water-based pressure-sensitive paints (PSPs) have been invented as alternatives to conventional organic-solvent-based pressure-sensitive paints, which are used primarily for indicating distributions of air pressure on wind-tunnel models. Typically, PSPs are sprayed onto aerodynamic models after they have been mounted in wind tunnels. When conventional organic-solvent-based PSPs are used, this practice creates a problem of removing toxic fumes from inside the wind tunnels. The use of water-based PSPs eliminates this problem. The waterbased PSPs offer high performance as pressure indicators, plus all the advantages of common water-based paints (low toxicity, low concentrations of volatile organic compounds, and easy cleanup by use of water).

The development of learning media of acid-base indicator from extract of natural colorant as an alternative media in learning chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhadi, Mukhamad; Wirhanuddin, Erwin, Muflihah, Erika, Farah; Widiyowati, Iis Intan

2017-03-01

The development of learning media of acid base indicator from extract of natural colorants as an alternative media in chemistry learning; acid-base solution by using creative problem solving model at SMA N 10 Samarinda has been done. This research aimed to create and develop the learning media from extract of natural colorants, measure its quality and effectiveness, and measure the quality of student learning outcome in acid-base solution topic by using that media. The development process used Analysis, Design, Development, Implementation, and Evaluation (ADDIE) method. The learning media of acid-base indicator was created in the form of box experiment. Its quality was in the range of very good and it was effectively applied in the learning and gave positive impact on the achievement of learning goals.

Modeling and managing risk early in software development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briand, Lionel C.; Thomas, William M.; Hetmanski, Christopher J.

1993-01-01

In order to improve the quality of the software development process, we need to be able to build empirical multivariate models based on data collectable early in the software process. These models need to be both useful for prediction and easy to interpret, so that remedial actions may be taken in order to control and optimize the development process. We present an automated modeling technique which can be used as an alternative to regression techniques. We show how it can be used to facilitate the identification and aid the interpretation of the significant trends which characterize 'high risk' components in several Ada systems. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of our technique based on a comparison with logistic regression based models.

Towards a Pragmatic Model for Group-Based, Technology-Mediated, Project-Oriented Learning - An Overview of the B2C Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawlor, John; Conneely, Claire; Tangney, Brendan

The poor assimilation of ICT in formal education is firmly rooted in models of learning prevalent in the classroom which are largely teacher-led, individualistic and reproductive, with little connection between theory and practice and poor linkages across the curriculum. A new model of classroom practice is required to allow for creativity, peer-learning, thematic learning, collaboration and problem solving, i.e. the skills commonly deemed necessary for the knowledge-based society of the 21st century. This paper describes the B2C model for group-based, technology-mediated, project-oriented learning which, while being developed as part of an out of school programme, offers a pragmatic alternative to traditional classroom pedagogy.

Design and Simulation Plant Layout Using Systematic Layout Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhardini, D.; Septiani, W.; Fauziah, S.

2017-12-01

This research aims to design the factory layout of PT. Gunaprima Budiwijaya in order to increase production capacity. The problem faced by this company is inappropriate layout causes cross traffic on the production floor. The re-layout procedure consist of these three steps: analysing the existing layout, designing plant layout based on SLP and evaluation and selection of alternative layout using Simulation Pro model version 6. Systematic layout planning is used to re-layout not based on the initial layout. This SLP produces four layout alternatives, and each alternative will be evaluated based on two criteria, namely cost of material handling using Material Handling Evaluation Sheet (MHES) and processing time by simulation. The results showed that production capacity is increasing as much as 37.5% with the addition of the machine and the operator, while material handling cost was reduced by improvement of the layout. The use of systematic layout planning method reduces material handling cost of 10,98% from initial layout or amounting to Rp1.229.813,34.

TAPAS: tools to assist the targeted protein quantification of human alternative splice variants.

PubMed

Yang, Jae-Seong; Sabidó, Eduard; Serrano, Luis; Kiel, Christina

2014-10-15

In proteomes of higher eukaryotes, many alternative splice variants can only be detected by their shared peptides. This makes it highly challenging to use peptide-centric mass spectrometry to distinguish and to quantify protein isoforms resulting from alternative splicing events. We have developed two complementary algorithms based on linear mathematical models to efficiently compute a minimal set of shared and unique peptides needed to quantify a set of isoforms and splice variants. Further, we developed a statistical method to estimate the splice variant abundances based on stable isotope labeled peptide quantities. The algorithms and databases are integrated in a web-based tool, and we have experimentally tested the limits of our quantification method using spiked proteins and cell extracts. The TAPAS server is available at URL http://davinci.crg.es/tapas/. luis.serrano@crg.eu or christina.kiel@crg.eu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

39 Questionable Assumptions in Modern Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volk, Greg

2009-03-01

The growing body of anomalies in new energy, low energy nuclear reactions, astrophysics, atomic physics, and entanglement, combined with the failure of the Standard Model and string theory to predict many of the most basic fundamental phenomena, all point to a need for major new paradigms. Not Band-Aids, but revolutionary new ways of conceptualizing physics, in the spirit of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. This paper identifies a number of long-held, but unproven assumptions currently being challenged by an increasing number of alternative scientists. Two common themes, both with venerable histories, keep recurring in the many alternative theories being proposed: (1) Mach's Principle, and (2) toroidal, vortex particles. Matter-based Mach's Principle differs from both space-based universal frames and observer-based Einsteinian relativity. Toroidal particles, in addition to explaining electron spin and the fundamental constants, satisfy the basic requirement of Gauss's misunderstood B Law, that motion itself circulates. Though a comprehensive theory is beyond the scope of this paper, it will suggest alternatives to the long list of assumptions in context.

Risk-adjusted capitation funding models for chronic disease in Australia: alternatives to casemix funding.

PubMed

Antioch, K M; Walsh, M K

2002-01-01

Under Australian casemix funding arrangements that use Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) the average price is policy based, not benchmarked. Cost weights are too low for State-wide chronic disease services. Risk-adjusted Capitation Funding Models (RACFM) are feasible alternatives. A RACFM was developed for public patients with cystic fibrosis treated by an Australian Health Maintenance Organization (AHMO). Adverse selection is of limited concern since patients pay solidarity contributions via Medicare levy with no premium contributions to the AHMO. Sponsors paying premium subsidies are the State of Victoria and the Federal Government. Cost per patient is the dependent variable in the multiple regression. Data on DRG 173 (cystic fibrosis) patients were assessed for heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, structural stability and functional form. Stepwise linear regression excluded non-significant variables. Significant variables were 'emergency' (1276.9), 'outlier' (6377.1), 'complexity' (3043.5), 'procedures' (317.4) and the constant (4492.7) (R(2)=0.21, SE=3598.3, F=14.39, Prob<0.0001. Regression coefficients represent the additional per patient costs summed to the base payment (constant). The model explained 21% of the variance in cost per patient. The payment rate is adjusted by a best practice annual admission rate per patient. The model is a blended RACFM for in-patient, out-patient, Hospital In The Home, Fee-For-Service Federal payments for drugs and medical services; lump sum lung transplant payments and risk sharing through cost (loss) outlier payments. State and Federally funded home and palliative services are 'carved out'. The model, which has national application via Coordinated Care Trials and by Australian States for RACFMs may be instructive for Germany, which plans to use Australian DRGs for casemix funding. The capitation alternative for chronic disease can improve equity, allocative efficiency and distributional justice. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs) is a promising alternative classification system for capitation arrangements.

The Alternative Peer Group: A Developmentally Appropriate Recovery Support Model for Adolescents.

PubMed

Nash, Angela; Collier, Crystal

2016-01-01

Recovery as the goal for substance use disorder treatment has been a key component of the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration's mission for the past decade. Consistent with their mission, there is a call for research and development of recovery-oriented systems of care to support affected individuals through all stages of the recovery process. Evidence is emerging to support recovery practice and research for adults, but recovery-oriented models for adolescents are scant. The Alternative Peer Group (APG) is a comprehensive adolescent recovery support model that integrates recovering peers and prosocial activities into evidence-based clinical practice. Employing APG participants' own words, this article will describe the essential elements and three theoretical frameworks underlying the APG model to illustrate how the APG serves as a developmentally appropriate recovery support service for adolescents with substance use disorder.

Methodological issues underlying multiple decrement life table analysis.

PubMed

Mode, C J; Avery, R C; Littman, G S; Potter, R G

1977-02-01

In this paper, the actuarial method of multiple decrement life table analysis of censored, longitudinal data is examined. The discussion is organized in terms of the first segment of usage of an intrauterine device. Weaknesses of the actuarial approach are pointed out, and an alternative approach, based on the classical model of competing risks, is proposed. Finally, the actuarial and the alternative method of analyzing censored data are compared, using data from the Taichung Medical Study on Intrauterine Devices.

Description and modelling of the solar-hydrogen-biogas-fuel cell system in GlashusEtt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedström, L.; Wallmark, C.; Alvfors, P.; Rissanen, M.; Stridh, B.; Ekman, J.

The need to reduce pollutant emissions and utilise the world's available energy resources more efficiently has led to increased attention towards e.g. fuel cells, but also to other alternative energy solutions. In order to further understand and evaluate the prerequisites for sustainable and energy-saving systems, ABB and Fortum have equipped an environmental information centre, located in Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm, Sweden, with an alternative energy system. The system is being used to demonstrate and evaluate how a system based on fuel cells and solar cells can function as a complement to existing electricity and heat production. The stationary energy system is situated on the top level of a three-floor glass building and is open to the public. The alternative energy system consists of a fuel cell system, a photovoltaic (PV) cell array, an electrolyser, hydrogen storage tanks, a biogas burner, dc/ac inverters, heat exchangers and an accumulator tank. The fuel cell system includes a reformer and a polymer electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC) with a maximum rated electrical output of 4 kW el and a maximum thermal output of 6.5 kW th. The fuel cell stack can be operated with reformed biogas, or directly using hydrogen produced by the electrolyser. The cell stack in the electrolyser consists of proton exchange membrane (PEM) cells. To evaluate different automatic control strategies for the system, a simplified dynamic model has been developed in MATLAB Simulink. The model based on measurement data taken from the actual system. The evaluation is based on demand curves, investment costs, electricity prices and irradiation. Evaluation criteria included in the model are electrical and total efficiencies as well as economic parameters.

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

PubMed Central

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

2013-01-01

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

Model systems for life processes on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitz, M. A.

1974-01-01

In the evolution of life forms nonphotosynthetic mechanisms are developed. The question remains whether a total life system could evolve which is not dependent upon photosynthesis. In trying to visualize life on other planets, the photosynthetic process has problems. On Mars, the high intensity of light at the surface is a concern and alternative mechanisms need to be defined and analyzed. In the UV search for alternate mechanisms, several different areas may be identified. These involve activated inorganic compounds in the atmosphere, such as the products of photodissociation of carbon dioxide and the organic material which may be created by natural phenomena. In addition, a life system based on the pressure of the atmospheric constituents, such as carbon dioxide, is a possibility. These considerations may be important for the understanding of evolutionary processes of life on another planet. Model systems which depend on these alternative mechanisms are defined and related to presently planned and future planetary missions.

ParaChoice Model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heimer, Brandon Walter; Levinson, Rebecca Sobel; West, Todd H.

Analysis with the ParaChoice model addresses three barriers from the VTO Multi-Year Program Plan: availability of alternative fuels and electric charging station infrastructure, availability of AFVs and electric drive vehicles, and consumer reluctance to purchase new technologies. In this fiscal year, we first examined the relationship between the availability of alternative fuels and station infrastructure. Specifically, we studied how electric vehicle charging infrastructure affects the ability of EVs to compete with vehicles that rely on mature, conventional petroleum-based fuels. Second, we studied how the availability of less costly AFVs promotes their representation in the LDV fleet. Third, we used ParaChoicemore » trade space analyses to help inform which consumers are reluctant to purchase new technologies. Last, we began analysis of impacts of alternative energy technologies on Class 8 trucks to isolate those that may most efficaciously advance HDV efficiency and petroleum use reduction goals.« less

Evolutionary transitions towards eusociality in snapping shrimps.

PubMed

Chak, Solomon Tin Chi; Duffy, J Emmett; Hultgren, Kristin M; Rubenstein, Dustin R

2017-03-20

Animal social organization varies from complex societies where reproduction is dominated by a single individual (eusociality) to those where reproduction is more evenly distributed among group members (communal breeding). Yet, how simple groups transition evolutionarily to more complex societies remains unclear. Competing hypotheses suggest that eusociality and communal breeding are alternative evolutionary endpoints, or that communal breeding is an intermediate stage in the transition towards eusociality. We tested these alternative hypotheses in sponge-dwelling shrimps, Synalpheus spp. Although species varied continuously in reproductive skew, they clustered into pair-forming, communal and eusocial categories based on several demographic traits. Evolutionary transition models suggested that eusocial and communal species are discrete evolutionary endpoints that evolved independently from pair-forming ancestors along alternative paths. This 'family-centred' origin of eusociality parallels observations in insects and vertebrates, reinforcing the role of kin selection in the evolution of eusociality and suggesting a general model of animal social evolution.

Functionalizing graphene by embedded boron clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quandt, Alexander; Özdoğan, Cem; Kunstmann, Jens; Fehske, Holger

2008-08-01

We present a model system that might serve as a blueprint for the controlled layout of graphene based nanodevices. The systems consists of chains of B7 clusters implanted in a graphene matrix, where the boron clusters are not directly connected. We show that the graphene matrix easily accepts these alternating B7-C6 chains and that the implanted boron components may dramatically modify the electronic properties of graphene based nanomaterials. This suggests a functionalization of graphene nanomaterials, where the semiconducting properties might be supplemented by parts of the graphene matrix itself, but the basic wiring will be provided by alternating chains of implanted boron clusters that connect these areas.

A Review of Models for Computer-Based Testing. Research Report 2011-12

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luecht, Richard M.; Sireci, Stephen G.

2011-01-01

Over the past four decades, there has been incremental growth in computer-based testing (CBT) as a viable alternative to paper-and-pencil testing. However, the transition to CBT is neither easy nor inexpensive. As Drasgow, Luecht, and Bennett (2006) noted, many design engineering, test development, operations/logistics, and psychometric changes…

Operant self-administration of alcohol and nicotine in a preclinical model of co-abuse

PubMed Central

Lê, A.D.; Funk, Douglas; Lo, Steven; Coen, Kathleen

2017-01-01

Rationale and objectives Alcohol and nicotine are often taken together. In humans, intake of nicotine, via smoked tobacco, increases alcohol drinking, and alcohol increases smoking. Chronic nicotine treatment increases alcohol self-administration (SA) in laboratory animals; the reverse relationship is less clear. Most animal work modeling this has used passive administration, which lacks relevance to human co-abuse. Here, we describe a model based on sequential operant SA of alcohol and nicotine. Methods Animals are first trained on alcohol SA (0.19 ml of 12% w/v/delivery) and then receive separate alcohol (8% w/v) and nicotine (15 μg/kg/infusion) SA sessions on the same day (“daily dual access”). Animals then receive access to alcohol and then to nicotine (or in the reverse order) in alternating 5 min periods in 2h sessions (“alternating access”). We then determine if alternating access modifies the effects of naltrexone on responding for alcohol and nicotine. Results We found that with daily dual access, nicotine significantly increased alcohol SA when alcohol access occurred prior to nicotine access, and that nicotine SA significantly decreased when the alcohol SA session preceded it. During alternating access, nicotine also significantly increased alcohol intake. Naltrexone (0.3 or 1 mg/kg) significantly reduced alcohol SA during these alternating access sessions in animals that also received nicotine SA, but had minimal effects on animals receiving alcohol SA alone. Naltrexone did not affect nicotine SA under any condition. Conclusions This sequential access procedure effectively models the effects of nicotine on alcohol intake noted in humans. PMID:24696081

Testing Multi-Alternative Decision Models with Non-Stationary Evidence

PubMed Central

Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Usher, Marius; McClelland, James L.

2011-01-01

Recent research has investigated the process of integrating perceptual evidence toward a decision, converging on a number of sequential sampling choice models, such as variants of race and diffusion models and the non-linear leaky competing accumulator (LCA) model. Here we study extensions of these models to multi-alternative choice, considering how well they can account for data from a psychophysical experiment in which the evidence supporting each of the alternatives changes dynamically during the trial, in a way that creates temporal correlations. We find that participants exhibit a tendency to choose an alternative whose evidence profile is temporally anti-correlated with (or dissimilar from) that of other alternatives. This advantage of the anti-correlated alternative is well accounted for in the LCA, and provides constraints that challenge several other models of multi-alternative choice. PMID:21603227

Testing multi-alternative decision models with non-stationary evidence.

PubMed

Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Usher, Marius; McClelland, James L

2011-01-01

Recent research has investigated the process of integrating perceptual evidence toward a decision, converging on a number of sequential sampling choice models, such as variants of race and diffusion models and the non-linear leaky competing accumulator (LCA) model. Here we study extensions of these models to multi-alternative choice, considering how well they can account for data from a psychophysical experiment in which the evidence supporting each of the alternatives changes dynamically during the trial, in a way that creates temporal correlations. We find that participants exhibit a tendency to choose an alternative whose evidence profile is temporally anti-correlated with (or dissimilar from) that of other alternatives. This advantage of the anti-correlated alternative is well accounted for in the LCA, and provides constraints that challenge several other models of multi-alternative choice.

A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

2017-01-01

Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

Multi-scale individual-based model of microbial and bioconversion dynamics in aerobic granular sludge.

PubMed

Xavier, Joao B; De Kreuk, Merle K; Picioreanu, Cristian; Van Loosdrecht, Mark C M

2007-09-15

Aerobic granular sludge is a novel compact biological wastewater treatment technology for integrated removal of COD (chemical oxygen demand), nitrogen, and phosphate charges. We present here a multiscale model of aerobic granular sludge sequencing batch reactors (GSBR) describing the complex dynamics of populations and nutrient removal. The macro scale describes bulk concentrations and effluent composition in six solutes (oxygen, acetate, ammonium, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphate). A finer scale, the scale of one granule (1.1 mm of diameter), describes the two-dimensional spatial arrangement of four bacterial groups--heterotrophs, ammonium oxidizers, nitrite oxidizers, and phosphate accumulating organisms (PAO)--using individual based modeling (IbM) with species-specific kinetic models. The model for PAO includes three internal storage compounds: polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), poly phosphate, and glycogen. Simulations of long-term reactor operation show how the microbial population and activity depends on the operating conditions. Short-term dynamics of solute bulk concentrations are also generated with results comparable to experimental data from lab scale reactors. Our results suggest that N-removal in GSBR occurs mostly via alternating nitrification/denitrification rather than simultaneous nitrification/denitrification, supporting an alternative strategy to improve N-removal in this promising wastewater treatment process.

Using structure to explore the sequence alignment space of remote homologs.

PubMed

Kuziemko, Andrew; Honig, Barry; Petrey, Donald

2011-10-01

Protein structure modeling by homology requires an accurate sequence alignment between the query protein and its structural template. However, sequence alignment methods based on dynamic programming (DP) are typically unable to generate accurate alignments for remote sequence homologs, thus limiting the applicability of modeling methods. A central problem is that the alignment that is "optimal" in terms of the DP score does not necessarily correspond to the alignment that produces the most accurate structural model. That is, the correct alignment based on structural superposition will generally have a lower score than the optimal alignment obtained from sequence. Variations of the DP algorithm have been developed that generate alternative alignments that are "suboptimal" in terms of the DP score, but these still encounter difficulties in detecting the correct structural alignment. We present here a new alternative sequence alignment method that relies heavily on the structure of the template. By initially aligning the query sequence to individual fragments in secondary structure elements and combining high-scoring fragments that pass basic tests for "modelability", we can generate accurate alignments within a small ensemble. Our results suggest that the set of sequences that can currently be modeled by homology can be greatly extended.

Comparison of LIDAR system performance for alternative single-mode receiver architectures: modeling and experimental validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toliver, Paul; Ozdur, Ibrahim; Agarwal, Anjali; Woodward, T. K.

2013-05-01

In this paper, we describe a detailed performance comparison of alternative single-pixel, single-mode LIDAR architectures including (i) linear-mode APD-based direct-detection, (ii) optically-preamplified PIN receiver, (iii) PINbased coherent-detection, and (iv) Geiger-mode single-photon-APD counting. Such a comparison is useful when considering next-generation LIDAR on a chip, which would allow one to leverage extensive waveguide-based structures and processing elements developed for telecom and apply them to small form-factor sensing applications. Models of four LIDAR transmit and receive systems are described in detail, which include not only the dominant sources of receiver noise commonly assumed in each of the four detection limits, but also additional noise terms present in realistic implementations. These receiver models are validated through the analysis of detection statistics collected from an experimental LIDAR testbed. The receiver is reconfigurable into four modes of operation, while transmit waveforms and channel characteristics are held constant. The use of a diffuse hard target highlights the importance of including speckle noise terms in the overall system analysis. All measurements are done at 1550 nm, which offers multiple system advantages including less stringent eye safety requirements and compatibility with available telecom components, optical amplification, and photonic integration. Ultimately, the experimentally-validated detection statistics can be used as part of an end-to-end system model for projecting rate, range, and resolution performance limits and tradeoffs of alternative integrated LIDAR architectures.

Comparing in Cylinder Pressure Modelling of a DI Diesel Engine Fuelled on Alternative Fuel Using Two Tabulated Chemistry Approaches.

PubMed

Ngayihi Abbe, Claude Valery; Nzengwa, Robert; Danwe, Raidandi

2014-01-01

The present work presents the comparative simulation of a diesel engine fuelled on diesel fuel and biodiesel fuel. Two models, based on tabulated chemistry, were implemented for the simulation purpose and results were compared with experimental data obtained from a single cylinder diesel engine. The first model is a single zone model based on the Krieger and Bormann combustion model while the second model is a two-zone model based on Olikara and Bormann combustion model. It was shown that both models can predict well the engine's in-cylinder pressure as well as its overall performances. The second model showed a better accuracy than the first, while the first model was easier to implement and faster to compute. It was found that the first method was better suited for real time engine control and monitoring while the second one was better suited for engine design and emission prediction.

Analysis of Pulsed Flow Modification Alternatives, Lower Missouri River, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.

2008-01-01

The graphical, tabular, and statistical data presented in this report resulted from analysis of alternative flow regime designs considered by a group of Missouri River managers, stakeholders, and scientists during the summer of 2005. This plenary group was charged with designing a flow regime with increased spring flow pulses to support reproduction and survival of the endangered pallid sturgeon. Environmental flow components extracted from the reference natural flow regime were used to design and assess performance of alternative flow regimes. The analysis is based on modeled flow releases from Gavins Point Dam (near Yankton, South Dakota) for nine design alternatives and two reference scenarios; the reference scenarios are the run-of-the-river and the water-control plan implemented in 2004. The alternative designs were developed by the plenary group with the goal of providing pulsed spring flows, while retaining traditional social and economic uses of the river.

Evaluation of conventional and alternative monitoring methods for a recreational marine beach with nonpoint source of fecal contamination.

PubMed

Shibata, Tomoyuki; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Sinigalliano, Christopher D; Gidley, Maribeth L; Plano, Lisa R W; Fleisher, Jay M; Wang, John D; Elmir, Samir M; He, Guoqing; Wright, Mary E; Abdelzaher, Amir M; Ortega, Cristina; Wanless, David; Garza, Anna C; Kish, Jonathan; Scott, Troy; Hollenbeck, Julie; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2010-11-01

The objectives of this work were to compare enterococci (ENT) measurements based on the membrane filter, ENT(MF) with alternatives that can provide faster results including alternative enterococci methods (e.g., chromogenic substrate (CS), and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)), and results from regression models based upon environmental parameters that can be measured in real-time. ENT(MF) were also compared to source tracking markers (Staphylococcus aureus, Bacteroidales human and dog markers, and Catellicoccus gull marker) in an effort to interpret the variability of the signal. Results showed that concentrations of enterococci based upon MF (<2 to 3320 CFU/100 mL) were significantly different from the CS and qPCR methods (p < 0.01). The correlations between MF and CS (r = 0.58, p < 0.01) were stronger than between MF and qPCR (r ≤ 0.36, p < 0.01). Enterococci levels by MF, CS, and qPCR methods were positively correlated with turbidity and tidal height. Enterococci by MF and CS were also inversely correlated with solar radiation but enterococci by qPCR was not. The regression model based on environmental variables provided fair qualitative predictions of enterococci by MF in real-time, for daily geometric mean levels, but not for individual samples. Overall, ENT(MF) was not significantly correlated with source tracking markers with the exception of samples collected during one storm event. The inability of the regression model to predict ENT(MF) levels for individual samples is likely due to the different sources of ENT impacting the beach at any given time, making it particularly difficult to to predict short-term variability of ENT(MF) for environmental parameters.

Scripting MODFLOW Model Development Using Python and FloPy.

PubMed

Bakker, M; Post, V; Langevin, C D; Hughes, J D; White, J T; Starn, J J; Fienen, M N

2016-09-01

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are commonly used to construct and postprocess numerical groundwater flow and transport models. Scripting model development with the programming language Python is presented here as an alternative approach. One advantage of Python is that there are many packages available to facilitate the model development process, including packages for plotting, array manipulation, optimization, and data analysis. For MODFLOW-based models, the FloPy package was developed by the authors to construct model input files, run the model, and read and plot simulation results. Use of Python with the available scientific packages and FloPy facilitates data exploration, alternative model evaluations, and model analyses that can be difficult to perform with GUIs. Furthermore, Python scripts are a complete, transparent, and repeatable record of the modeling process. The approach is introduced with a simple FloPy example to create and postprocess a MODFLOW model. A more complicated capture-fraction analysis with a real-world model is presented to demonstrate the types of analyses that can be performed using Python and FloPy. © 2016, National Ground Water Association.

Integrating modeling, monitoring, and management to reduce critical uncertainties in water resource decision making.

PubMed

Peterson, James T; Freeman, Mary C

2016-12-01

Stream ecosystems provide multiple, valued services to society, including water supply, waste assimilation, recreation, and habitat for diverse and productive biological communities. Managers striving to sustain these services in the face of changing climate, land uses, and water demands need tools to assess the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions, and often, the resulting tradeoffs between competing objectives. Integrating predictive modeling with monitoring data in an adaptive management framework provides a process by which managers can reduce model uncertainties and thus improve the scientific bases for subsequent decisions. We demonstrate an integration of monitoring data with a dynamic, metapopulation model developed to assess effects of streamflow alteration on fish occupancy in a southeastern US stream system. Although not extensive (collected over three years at nine sites), the monitoring data allowed us to assess and update support for alternative population dynamic models using model probabilities and Bayes rule. We then use the updated model weights to estimate the effects of water withdrawal on stream fish communities and demonstrate how feedback in the form of monitoring data can be used to improve water resource decision making. We conclude that investment in more strategic monitoring, guided by a priori model predictions under alternative hypotheses and an adaptive sampling design, could substantially improve the information available to guide decision-making and management for ecosystem services from lotic systems. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Ellsworth, William L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Holland, Austin A.; Anderson, John G.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of exceedance for earthquake ground shaking (ground motion). For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model assessment, the seismic hazard from potentially induced earthquakes was intentionally not considered because we had not determined how to properly treat these earthquakes for the seismic hazard analysis. The phrases “potentially induced” and “induced” are used interchangeably in this report, however it is acknowledged that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model update, the potentially induced earthquakes were removed from the NSHM’s earthquake catalog, and the documentation states that we would consider alternative models for including induced seismicity in a future version of the National Seismic Hazard Model. As part of the process of incorporating induced seismicity into the seismic hazard model, we evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard from induced seismicity to five parts of the hazard model: (1) the earthquake catalog, (2) earthquake rates, (3) earthquake locations, (4) earthquake Mmax (maximum magnitude), and (5) earthquake ground motions. We describe alternative input models for each of the five parts that represent differences in scientific opinions on induced seismicity characteristics. In this report, however, we do not weight these input models to come up with a preferred final model. Instead, we present a sensitivity study showing uniform seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the alternative input models for induced seismicity. The final model will be released after further consideration of the reliability and scientific acceptability of each alternative input model. Forecasting the seismic hazard from induced earthquakes is fundamentally different from forecasting the seismic hazard for natural, tectonic earthquakes. This is because the spatio-temporal patterns of induced earthquakes are reliant on economic forces and public policy decisions regarding extraction and injection of fluids. As such, the rates of induced earthquakes are inherently variable and nonstationary. Therefore, we only make maps based on an annual rate of exceedance rather than the 50-year rates calculated for previous U.S. Geological Survey hazard maps.

Double-stranded DNA organization in bacteriophage heads: an alternative toroid-based model.

PubMed Central

Hud, N V

1995-01-01

Studies of the organization of double-stranded DNA within bacteriophage heads during the past four decades have produced a wealth of data. However, despite the presentation of numerous models, the true organization of DNA within phage heads remains unresolved. The observations of toroidal DNA structures in electron micrographs of phage lysates have long been cited as support for the organization of DNA in a spool-like fashion. This particular model, like all other models, has not been found to be consistent will all available data. Recently we proposed that DNA within toroidal condensates produced in vitro is organized in a manner significantly different from that suggested by the spool model. This new toroid model has allowed the development of an alternative model for DNA organization within bacteriophage heads that is consistent with a wide range of biophysical data. Here we propose that bacteriophage DNA is packaged in a toroid that is folded into a highly compact structure. Images FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2 FIGURE 3 FIGURE 4 PMID:8534805

The role of peripheral endemism in species diversification: evidence from the coral reef fish genus Anampses (Family: Labridae).

PubMed

Hodge, Jennifer R; Read, Charmaine I; van Herwerden, Lynne; Bellwood, David R

2012-02-01

We examined how peripherally isolated endemic species may have contributed to the biodiversity of the Indo-Australian Archipelago biodiversity hotspot by reconstructing the evolutionary history of the wrasse genus Anampses. We identified three alternate models of diversification: the vicariance-based 'successive division' model, and the dispersal-based 'successive colonisation' and 'peripheral budding' models. The genus was well suited for this study given its relatively high proportion (42%) of endemic species, its reasonably low diversity (12 species), which permitted complete taxon sampling, and its widespread tropical Indo-Pacific distribution. Monophyly of the genus was strongly supported by three phylogenetic analyses: maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference based on mitochondrial CO1 and 12S rRNA and nuclear S7 sequences. Estimates of species divergence times from fossil-calibrated Bayesian inference suggest that Anampses arose in the mid-Eocene and subsequently diversified throughout the Miocene. Evolutionary relationships within the genus, combined with limited spatial and temporal concordance among endemics, offer support for all three alternate models of diversification. Our findings emphasise the importance of peripherally isolated locations in creating and maintaining endemic species and their contribution to the biodiversity of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cache-Oblivious parallel SIMD Viterbi decoding for sequence search in HMMER.

PubMed

Ferreira, Miguel; Roma, Nuno; Russo, Luis M S

2014-05-30

HMMER is a commonly used bioinformatics tool based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to analyze and process biological sequences. One of its main homology engines is based on the Viterbi decoding algorithm, which was already highly parallelized and optimized using Farrar's striped processing pattern with Intel SSE2 instruction set extension. A new SIMD vectorization of the Viterbi decoding algorithm is proposed, based on an SSE2 inter-task parallelization approach similar to the DNA alignment algorithm proposed by Rognes. Besides this alternative vectorization scheme, the proposed implementation also introduces a new partitioning of the Markov model that allows a significantly more efficient exploitation of the cache locality. Such optimization, together with an improved loading of the emission scores, allows the achievement of a constant processing throughput, regardless of the innermost-cache size and of the dimension of the considered model. The proposed optimized vectorization of the Viterbi decoding algorithm was extensively evaluated and compared with the HMMER3 decoder to process DNA and protein datasets, proving to be a rather competitive alternative implementation. Being always faster than the already highly optimized ViterbiFilter implementation of HMMER3, the proposed Cache-Oblivious Parallel SIMD Viterbi (COPS) implementation provides a constant throughput and offers a processing speedup as high as two times faster, depending on the model's size.

Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach for conceptual hydrological modeling: 1. Motivation and theoretical development, Water Resources Research, 47(11).

Configuration complexity assessment of convergent supply chain systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modrak, Vladimir; Marton, David

2014-07-01

System designers usually generate alternative configurations of supply chains (SCs) by varying especially fixed assets to satisfy a desired production scope and rate. Such alternatives often vary in associated costs and other facets including degrees of complexity. Hence, a measure of configuration complexity can be a tool for comparison and decision-making. This paper presents three approaches to assessment of configuration complexity and their applications to designing convergent SC systems. Presented approaches are conceptually distinct ways of measuring structural complexity parameters based on different preconditions and circumstances of assembly systems which are typical representatives of convergent SCs. There are applied two similar approaches based on different preconditions that are related to demand shares. Third approach does not consider any special condition relating to character of final product demand. Subsequently, we propose a framework for modeling of assembly SC models, which are dividing to classes.

Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

2007-01-01

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

Classification image analysis: estimation and statistical inference for two-alternative forced-choice experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbey, Craig K.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

2002-01-01

We consider estimation and statistical hypothesis testing on classification images obtained from the two-alternative forced-choice experimental paradigm. We begin with a probabilistic model of task performance for simple forced-choice detection and discrimination tasks. Particular attention is paid to general linear filter models because these models lead to a direct interpretation of the classification image as an estimate of the filter weights. We then describe an estimation procedure for obtaining classification images from observer data. A number of statistical tests are presented for testing various hypotheses from classification images based on some more compact set of features derived from them. As an example of how the methods we describe can be used, we present a case study investigating detection of a Gaussian bump profile.

Faculty Flow in a Medical School: A Policy Simulator. AIR Forum 1979 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kutina, Kenneth L.; Bruss, Edward A.

A computer-based simulation model is described that can be used in an interactive mode to analyze the effects of alternative hiring, promotion, tenure granting, retirement, and salary policies on faculty size, distribution, and aggregate salary expense. The model was designed to be adequately flexible and comprehensive to incorporate the array of…

Emergent Frameworks of Research Teaching and Learning in a Cohort-Based Doctoral Programme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samuel, Michael; Vithal, Renuka

2011-01-01

This article argues that alternate models of doctoral research teaching and learning pedagogy could address the challenge of under-productivity of doctoral graduands in the South African higher education system. Present literature tends not to focus on the models of research teaching and learning as a form of pedagogy. The article presents a case…

"DSM IV," "DSM-5," and the Five-Factor Model: the Diagnosis of Personality Disorder with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindsay, William R.; Steptoe, Lesley; McVicker, Ronnie; Haut, Fabian; Robertson, Colette

2018-01-01

In "DSM-5" there has been a move to dimensional personality disorder (PD) diagnosis, incorporating personality theory in the form of the five-factor model (FFM). It proposes an alternative assessment system based on diagnostic indicators and the FFM, while retaining "DSM-IV" categorical criteria. Four individuals with…

An Alternative Three-Level Model for Estimating SEIs and Their Stability.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mandeville, Garrett K.

After a brief review of recent research concerning school effectiveness, this paper proposes an approach to operationalizing school effectiveness that is based on the achievement of students in a school over a period of time. This three-level model does not follow a single cohort of students as they progress through school. Rather, it uses the…

Alternative Measurement Paradigms for Measuring Executive Functions: SEM (Formative and Reflective Models) and IRT (Rasch Models)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engelhard, George, Jr.; Wang, Jue

2014-01-01

The authors of the Focus article pose important questions regarding whether or not performance-based tasks related to executive functioning are best viewed as reflective or formative indicators. Miyake and Friedman (2012) define executive functioning (EF) as "a set of general-purpose control mechanisms, often linked to the prefrontal cortex…

Validation of an internal hardwood log defect prediction model

Treesearch

R. Edward Thomas

2011-01-01

The type, size, and location of internal defects dictate the grade and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. However, acquiring internal defect knowledge with x-ray/computed-tomography or magnetic-resonance imaging technology can be expensive both in time and cost. An alternative approach uses prediction models based on correlations among external defect indicators...

Contingency Management and Deliberative Decision-Making Processes.

PubMed

Regier, Paul S; Redish, A David

2015-01-01

Contingency management is an effective treatment for drug addiction. The current explanation for its success is rooted in alternative reinforcement theory. We suggest that alternative reinforcement theory is inadequate to explain the success of contingency management and produce a model based on demand curves that show how little the monetary rewards offered in this treatment would affect drug use. Instead, we offer an explanation of its success based on the concept that it accesses deliberative decision-making processes. We suggest that contingency management is effective because it offers a concrete and immediate alternative to using drugs, which engages deliberative processes, improves the ability of those deliberative processes to attend to non-drug options, and offsets more automatic action-selection systems. This theory makes explicit predictions that can be tested, suggests which users will be most helped by contingency management, and suggests improvements in its implementation.

Contingency Management and Deliberative Decision-Making Processes

PubMed Central

Regier, Paul S.; Redish, A. David

2015-01-01

Contingency management is an effective treatment for drug addiction. The current explanation for its success is rooted in alternative reinforcement theory. We suggest that alternative reinforcement theory is inadequate to explain the success of contingency management and produce a model based on demand curves that show how little the monetary rewards offered in this treatment would affect drug use. Instead, we offer an explanation of its success based on the concept that it accesses deliberative decision-making processes. We suggest that contingency management is effective because it offers a concrete and immediate alternative to using drugs, which engages deliberative processes, improves the ability of those deliberative processes to attend to non-drug options, and offsets more automatic action-selection systems. This theory makes explicit predictions that can be tested, suggests which users will be most helped by contingency management, and suggests improvements in its implementation. PMID:26082725

Direct coal liquefaction baseline design and system analysis. Quarterly report, January--March 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-04-01

The primary objective of the study is to develop a computer model for a base line direct coal liquefaction design based on two stage direct coupled catalytic reactors. This primary objective is to be accomplished by completing the following: a base line design based on previous DOE/PETC results from Wilsonville pilot plant and other engineering evaluations; a cost estimate and economic analysis; a computer model incorporating the above two steps over a wide range of capacities and selected process alternatives; a comprehensive training program for DOE/PETC Staff to understand and use the computer model; a thorough documentation of all underlyingmore » assumptions for baseline economics; and a user manual and training material which will facilitate updating of the model in the future.« less

Direct coal liquefaction baseline design and system analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-04-01

The primary objective of the study is to develop a computer model for a base line direct coal liquefaction design based on two stage direct coupled catalytic reactors. This primary objective is to be accomplished by completing the following: a base line design based on previous DOE/PETC results from Wilsonville pilot plant and other engineering evaluations; a cost estimate and economic analysis; a computer model incorporating the above two steps over a wide range of capacities and selected process alternatives; a comprehensive training program for DOE/PETC Staff to understand and use the computer model; a thorough documentation of all underlyingmore » assumptions for baseline economics; and a user manual and training material which will facilitate updating of the model in the future.« less

Alternative fuels and vehicles choice model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-10-01

This report describes the theory and implementation of a model of alternative fuel and vehicle choice (AFVC), designed for use with the United States Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). The AFTM is a static equilibrium model ...

Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

2017-12-01

Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean- pbf optimization. The effectiveness of using buffered failure probability compared to the failure probability is tested by comparing the solutions obtained by using mean-pbf and mean-pf optimizations.

How the dual process model of human cognition can inform efforts to de‐implement ineffective and harmful clinical practices: A preliminary model of unlearning and substitution

PubMed Central

Rose, Adam J.; Hartmann, Christine W.; van Bodegom‐Vos, Leti; Graham, Ian D.; Wood, Suzanne J.; Majerczyk, Barbara R.; Good, Chester B.; Pogach, Leonard M.; Ball, Sherry L.; Au, David H.; Aron, David C.

2018-01-01

Abstract Rationale and objectives One way to understand medical overuse at the clinician level is in terms of clinical decision‐making processes that are normally adaptive but become maladaptive. In psychology, dual process models of cognition propose 2 decision‐making processes. Reflective cognition is a conscious process of evaluating options based on some combination of utility, risk, capabilities, and/or social influences. Automatic cognition is a largely unconscious process occurring in response to environmental or emotive cues based on previously learned, ingrained heuristics. De‐implementation strategies directed at clinicians may be conceptualized as corresponding to cognition: (1) a process of unlearning based on reflective cognition and (2) a process of substitution based on automatic cognition. Results We define unlearning as a process in which clinicians consciously change their knowledge, beliefs, and intentions about an ineffective practice and alter their behaviour accordingly. Unlearning has been described as “the questioning of established knowledge, habits, beliefs and assumptions as a prerequisite to identifying inappropriate or obsolete knowledge underpinning and/or embedded in existing practices and routines.” We hypothesize that as an unintended consequence of unlearning strategies clinicians may experience “reactance,” ie, feel their professional prerogative is being violated and, consequently, increase their commitment to the ineffective practice. We define substitution as replacing the ineffective practice with one or more alternatives. A substitute is a specific alternative action or decision that either precludes the ineffective practice or makes it less likely to occur. Both approaches may work independently, eg, a substitute could displace an ineffective practice without changing clinicians' knowledge, and unlearning could occur even if no alternative exists. For some clinical practice, unlearning and substitution strategies may be most effectively used together. Conclusions By taking into account the dual process model of cognition, we may be able to design de‐implementation strategies matched to clinicians' decision‐making processes and avoid unintended consequence. PMID:29314508

From community preferences to design: Investigation of human-centered optimization algorithms in web-based, democratic planning of watershed restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babbar-Sebens, M.; Mukhopadhyay, S.

2014-12-01

Web 2.0 technologies are useful resources for reaching out to larger stakeholder communities and involve them in policy making and planning efforts. While these technologies have been used in the past to support education and communication endeavors, we have developed a novel, web-based, interactive planning tool that involves the community in using science-based methods for the design of potential runoff management strategies on their landscape. The tool, Watershed REstoration using Spatio-Temporal Optimization of Resources (WRESTORE), uses a democratic voting process coupled with visualization interfaces, computational simulation and optimization models, and user modeling techniques to support a human-centered design approach. The tool can be used to engage diverse watershed stakeholders and landowners via the internet, thereby improving opportunities for outreach and collaborations. Users are able to (a) design multiple types of conservation practices at their field-scale catchment and at the entire watershed scale, (b) examine impacts and limitations of their decisions on their neighboring catchments and on the entire watershed, (c) compare alternatives via a cost-benefit analysis, (d) vote on their "favorite" designs based on their preferences and constraints, and (e) propose their "favorite" alternatives to policy makers and other stakeholders. In this presentation, we will demonstrate the effectiveness of WRESTORE for designing alternatives of conservation practices to reduce peak flows in a Midwestern watershed, present results on multiple approaches for engaging with larger communities, and discuss potential for future developments.

Derivation of a Multiparameter Gamma Model for Analyzing the Residence-Time Distribution Function for Nonideal Flow Systems as an Alternative to the Advection-Dispersion Equation

DOE PAGES

Embry, Irucka; Roland, Victor; Agbaje, Oluropo; ...

2013-01-01

A new residence-time distribution (RTD) function has been developed and applied to quantitative dye studies as an alternative to the traditional advection-dispersion equation (AdDE). The new method is based on a jointly combined four-parameter gamma probability density function (PDF). The gamma residence-time distribution (RTD) function and its first and second moments are derived from the individual two-parameter gamma distributions of randomly distributed variables, tracer travel distance, and linear velocity, which are based on their relationship with time. The gamma RTD function was used on a steady-state, nonideal system modeled as a plug-flow reactor (PFR) in the laboratory to validate themore » effectiveness of the model. The normalized forms of the gamma RTD and the advection-dispersion equation RTD were compared with the normalized tracer RTD. The normalized gamma RTD had a lower mean-absolute deviation (MAD) (0.16) than the normalized form of the advection-dispersion equation (0.26) when compared to the normalized tracer RTD. The gamma RTD function is tied back to the actual physical site due to its randomly distributed variables. The results validate using the gamma RTD as a suitable alternative to the advection-dispersion equation for quantitative tracer studies of non-ideal flow systems.« less

Bridging the Field Trip Gap: Integrating Web-Based Video as a Teaching and Learning Partner in Interior Design Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roehl, Amy

2013-01-01

This study utilizes web-based video as a strategy to transfer knowledge about the interior design industry in a format that interests the current generation of students. The model of instruction developed is based upon online video as an engaging, economical, and time-saving alternative to a field trip, guest speaker, or video teleconference.…

Fluorescence Reporter-Based Genome-Wide RNA Interference Screening to Identify Alternative Splicing Regulators.

PubMed

Misra, Ashish; Green, Michael R

2017-01-01

Alternative splicing is a regulated process that leads to inclusion or exclusion of particular exons in a pre-mRNA transcript, resulting in multiple protein isoforms being encoded by a single gene. With more than 90 % of human genes known to undergo alternative splicing, it represents a major source for biological diversity inside cells. Although in vitro splicing assays have revealed insights into the mechanisms regulating individual alternative splicing events, our global understanding of alternative splicing regulation is still evolving. In recent years, genome-wide RNA interference (RNAi) screening has transformed biological research by enabling genome-scale loss-of-function screens in cultured cells and model organisms. In addition to resulting in the identification of new cellular pathways and potential drug targets, these screens have also uncovered many previously unknown mechanisms regulating alternative splicing. Here, we describe a method for the identification of alternative splicing regulators using genome-wide RNAi screening, as well as assays for further validation of the identified candidates. With modifications, this method can also be adapted to study the splicing regulation of pre-mRNAs that contain two or more splice isoforms.

High-precision method of binocular camera calibration with a distortion model.

PubMed

Li, Weimin; Shan, Siyu; Liu, Hui

2017-03-10

A high-precision camera calibration method for binocular stereo vision system based on a multi-view template and alternative bundle adjustment is presented in this paper. The proposed method could be achieved by taking several photos on a specially designed calibration template that has diverse encoded points in different orientations. In this paper, the method utilized the existing algorithm used for monocular camera calibration to obtain the initialization, which involves a camera model, including radial lens distortion and tangential distortion. We created a reference coordinate system based on the left camera coordinate to optimize the intrinsic parameters of left camera through alternative bundle adjustment to obtain optimal values. Then, optimal intrinsic parameters of the right camera can be obtained through alternative bundle adjustment when we create a reference coordinate system based on the right camera coordinate. We also used all intrinsic parameters that were acquired to optimize extrinsic parameters. Thus, the optimal lens distortion parameters and intrinsic and extrinsic parameters were obtained. Synthetic and real data were used to test the method. The simulation results demonstrate that the maximum mean absolute relative calibration errors are about 3.5e-6 and 1.2e-6 for the focal length and the principal point, respectively, under zero-mean Gaussian noise with 0.05 pixels standard deviation. The real result shows that the reprojection error of our model is about 0.045 pixels with the relative standard deviation of 1.0e-6 over the intrinsic parameters. The proposed method is convenient, cost-efficient, highly precise, and simple to carry out.

Evaluating and Optimizing Online Advertising: Forget the Click, but There Are Good Proxies.

PubMed

Dalessandro, Brian; Hook, Rod; Perlich, Claudia; Provost, Foster

2015-06-01

Online systems promise to improve advertisement targeting via the massive and detailed data available. However, there often is too few data on exactly the outcome of interest, such as purchases, for accurate campaign evaluation and optimization (due to low conversion rates, cold start periods, lack of instrumentation of offline purchases, and long purchase cycles). This paper presents a detailed treatment of proxy modeling, which is based on the identification of a suitable alternative (proxy) target variable when data on the true objective is in short supply (or even completely nonexistent). The paper has a two-fold contribution. First, the potential of proxy modeling is demonstrated clearly, based on a massive-scale experiment across 58 real online advertising campaigns. Second, we assess the value of different specific proxies for evaluating and optimizing online display advertising, showing striking results. The results include bad news and good news. The most commonly cited and used proxy is a click on an ad. The bad news is that across a large number of campaigns, clicks are not good proxies for evaluation or for optimization: clickers do not resemble buyers. The good news is that an alternative sort of proxy performs remarkably well: observed visits to the brand's website. Specifically, predictive models built based on brand site visits-which are much more common than purchases-do a remarkably good job of predicting which browsers will make a purchase. The practical bottom line: evaluating and optimizing campaigns using clicks seems wrongheaded; however, there is an easy and attractive alternative-use a well-chosen site-visit proxy instead.

Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

2017-01-01

Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist for many plant species. Modelers should exploit these data to predict the impacts of environmental change.

Development of Electronic Load Controllers for Free-Piston Stirling Convertors Aided by Stirling Simulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regan, Timothy F.

2004-01-01

The free-piston Stirling convertor end-to-end modeling effort at the NASA Glenn Research Center has produced a software-based test bed in which free-piston Stirling convertors can be simulated and evaluated. The simulation model includes all the components of the convertor: the Stirling cycle engine, heat source, linear alternator, controller, and load. So far, it has been used in evaluating the performance of electronic controller designs. Three different controller design concepts were simulated using the model: 1) Controllers with parasitic direct current loading. 2) Controllers with parasitic alternating current loading. 3) Controllers that maintain a reference current. The free-piston Stirling convertor is an electromechanical device that operates at resonance. It is the function of the electronic load controller to ensure that the electrical load seen by the machine is always great enough to keep the amplitude of the piston and alternator oscillation at the rated value. This is done by regulating the load on the output bus. The controller monitors the instantaneous voltage, regulating it by switching loads called parasitic loads onto the bus whenever the bus voltage is too high and removing them whenever the voltage is too low. In the first type of controller, the monitor-ing and switching are done on the direct-current (dc) bus. In the second type, the alternating current bus is used. The model allows designers to test a controller concept before investing time in hardware. The simulation code used to develop the model also offers detailed models of digital and analog electronic components so that the resulting designs are realistic enough to translate directly into hardware circuits.

Using micro-simulation to investigate the safety impacts of transit design alternatives at signalized intersections.

PubMed

Li, Lu; Persaud, Bhagwant; Shalaby, Amer

2017-03-01

This study investigates the use of crash prediction models and micro-simulation to develop an effective surrogate safety assessment measure at the intersection level. With the use of these tools, hypothetical scenarios can be developed and explored to evaluate the safety impacts of design alternatives in a controlled environment, in which factors not directly associated with the design alternatives can be fixed. Micro-simulation models are developed, calibrated, and validated. Traffic conflicts in the micro-simulation models are estimated and linked with observed crash frequency, which greatly alleviates the lengthy time needed to collect sufficient crash data for evaluating alternatives, due to the rare and infrequent nature of crash events. A set of generalized linear models with negative binomial error structure is developed to correlate the simulated conflicts with the observed crash frequency in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Crash prediction models are also developed for crashes of different impact types and for transit-involved crashes. The resulting statistical significance and the goodness-of-fit of the models suggest adequate predictive ability. Based on the established correlation between simulated conflicts and observed crashes, scenarios are developed in the micro-simulation models to investigate the safety effects of individual transit line elements by making hypothetical modifications to such elements and estimating changes in crash frequency from the resulting changes in conflicts. The findings imply that the existing transit signal priority schemes can have a negative effect on safety performance, and that the existing near-side stop positioning and streetcar transit type can be safer at their current state than if they were to be replaced by their respective counterparts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Photovoltaic venture analysis. Final report. Volume I. Executive summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costello, D.; Posner, D.; Schiffel, D.

1978-07-01

The objective of the study, government programs under investigation, and a brief review of the approach are presented. Potential markets for photovoltaic systems relevant to the study are described. The response of the photovoltaic supply industry is then considered. A model which integrates the supply and demand characteristics of photovoltaics over time was developed. This model also calculates the economic benefits associated with various government subsidy programs. Results are derived under alternative possible supply, demand, and macroeconomic conditions. A probabilistic analysis of the costs and benefits of a $380 million federal photovoltaic procurement initiative, as well as certain alternative strategies,more » is summarized. Conclusions and recommendations based on the analysis are presented.« less

Critiques of the seismic hypothesis and the vegetation stabilization hypothesis for the formation of Mima mounds along the western coast of the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabet, Emmanuel J.; Burnham, Jennifer L. Horwath; Perron, J. Taylor

2016-09-01

A recent paper published in Geomorphology by Gabet et al. (2014) presents the results of a numerical model supporting the hypothesis that burrowing mammals build Mima mounds - small, densely packed hillocks found primarily in the western United States. The model is based on field observations and produces realistic-looking mounds with spatial distributions similar to real moundfields. Alternative explanations have been proposed for these Mima mounds, including formation by seismic shaking and vegetation-controlled erosion and deposition. In this short communication, we present observations from moundfields in the coastal states of the western U.S. that are incompatible with these alternative theories.

A Rule-Based Policy-Level Model of Nonsuperpower Behavior in Strategic Conflicts.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

a mechanism. The human mind tends to work linearly and to focus implicitly on a few variables. Experience results in subconscious models with far...which is slower. Alternatives to the current ROSIE implementation include reprogramming Scenario Agent in the C language (the language used for the Red...perception, opportunity perception, opportunity response, and assertiveness. As rules are refined, maintenance and reprogramming of the model will be required

Hydrography synthesis using LANDSAT remote sensing and the SCS models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ragan, R. M.; Jackson, T. J.

1976-01-01

The land cover requirements of the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Model used for hydrograph synthesis in urban areas were modified to be LANDSAT compatible. The Curve Numbers obtained with these alternate land cover categories compare well with those obtained in published example problems using the conventional categories. Emergency spillway hydrographs and synthetic flood frequency flows computed for a 21.1 sq. mi. test area showed excellent agreement between the conventional aerial photo-based and the Landsat-based SCS approaches.

Examination of some parameters of the kinematic model of SS433 based on an alternative theory of special relativity theory.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larionov, M. G.

On the basis of a new examination of the Michelson-Morley experiment, a theory is suggested, based on two principles and not on Lorentz transformations. The physical vacuum conception was revisited. Under these assumptions some parameters of the kinematic model of SS433 were reconsidered. A coincidence of some data of the theory with the special relativity conclusions for SS433 was noted in a plan of further investigations.

OPTIMIZING BMP PLACEMENT AT WATERSHED-SCALE USING SUSTAIN

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed and stormwater managers need modeling tools to evaluate alternative plans for environmental quality restoration and protection needs in urban and developing areas. A watershed-scale decision-support system, based on cost optimization, provides an essential tool to suppo...

U.S. EPA's Watershed Management Research Activities

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed and stormwater managers need modeling tools to evaluate alternative plans for environmental quality restoration and protection needs in urban and developing areas. A watershed-scale decision-support system, based on cost optimization, provides an essential tool to suppo...

Crippling Our Children with Discipline.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gordon, Thomas

1981-01-01

Holds that the practice of disciplining children is damaging to their physical, emotional, and social well-being. Describes the democratic and egalitarian parenting model put forth in "Effectiveness Training" as an alternative to adult power based control of children. (Author/GC)

Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

PubMed

Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

2010-12-01

Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

A comparison between conventional and LANDSAT based hydrologic modeling: The Four Mile Run case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ragan, R. M.; Jackson, T. J.; Fitch, W. N.; Shubinski, R. P.

1976-01-01

Models designed to support the hydrologic studies associated with urban water resources planning require input parameters that are defined in terms of land cover. Estimating the land cover is a difficult and expensive task when drainage areas larger than a few sq. km are involved. Conventional and LANDSAT based methods for estimating the land cover based input parameters required by hydrologic planning models were compared in a case study of the 50.5 sq. km (19.5 sq. mi) Four Mile Run Watershed in Virginia. Results of the study indicate that the LANDSAT based approach is highly cost effective for planning model studies. The conventional approach to define inputs was based on 1:3600 aerial photos, required 110 man-days and a total cost of $14,000. The LANDSAT based approach required 6.9 man-days and cost $2,350. The conventional and LANDSAT based models gave similar results relative to discharges and estimated annual damages expected from no flood control, channelization, and detention storage alternatives.

An alternative agriculture system is defined by a distinct expression profile of select gene transcripts and proteins

PubMed Central

Kumar, Vinod; Mills, Douglas J.; Anderson, James D.; Mattoo, Autar K.

2004-01-01

Conventional agriculture has relied heavily on chemical inputs that have negatively impacted the environment and increased production costs. Transition to agricultural sustainability is a major challenge and requires that alternative agricultural practices are scientifically analyzed to provide a sufficiently informative knowledge base in favor of alternative farming practices. We show a molecular basis for delayed leaf senescence and tolerance to diseases in tomato plants cultivated in a legume (hairy vetch) mulch-based alternative agricultural system. In the hairy vetch-cultivated plants, expression of specific and select classes of genes is up-regulated compared to those grown on black polyethylene mulch. These include N-responsive genes such as NiR, GS1, rbcL, rbcS, and G6PD; chaperone genes such as hsp70 and BiP; defense genes such as chitinase and osmotin; a cytokinin-responsive gene CKR; and gibberellic acid 20 oxidase. We present a model of how their protein products likely complement one another in a field scenario to effect efficient utilization and mobilization of C and N, promote defense against disease, and enhance longevity. PMID:15249656

The effects of context on multidimensional spatial cognitive models. Ph.D. Thesis - Arizona Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dupnick, E. G.

1979-01-01

Spatial cognitive models obtained by multidimensional scaling represent cognitive structure by defining alternatives as points in a coordinate space based on relevant dimensions such that interstimulus dissimilarities perceived by the individual correspond to distances between the respective alternatives. The dependence of spatial models on the context of the judgments required of the individual was investigated. Context, which is defined as a perceptual interpretation and cognitive understanding of a judgment situation, was analyzed and classified with respect to five characteristics: physical environment, social environment, task definition, individual perspective, and temporal setting. Four experiments designed to produce changes in the characteristics of context and to test the effects of these changes upon individual cognitive spaces are described with focus on experiment design, objectives, statistical analysis, results, and conclusions. The hypothesis is advanced that an individual can be characterized as having a master cognitive space for a set of alternatives. When the context changes, the individual appears to change the dimension weights to give a new spatial configuration. Factor analysis was used in the interpretation and labeling of cognitive space dimensions.

Portfolios: An Alternative Method of Student and Program Assessment

PubMed Central

Hannam, Susan E.

1995-01-01

The use of performance-based evaluation and alternative assessment techniques has become essential for curriculum programs seeking Commission of Accreditation of Allied Health Education Programs (CAAHEP) accreditation. In athletic training education, few assessment models exist to assess student performance over the entire course of their educational program. This article describes a model of assessment-a student athletic training portfolio of “best works.” The portfolio can serve as a method to assess student development and to assess program effectiveness. The goals of the program include purposes specific to the five NATA performance domains. In addition, four types of portfolio evidence are described: artifacts, attestations, productions, and reproductions. Quality assignments and projects completed by students as they progress through a six-semester program are identified relative to the type of evidence and the domain(s) they represent. The portfolio assists with student development, provides feedback for curriculum planning, allows for student/faculty collaboration and “coaching” of the student, and assists with job searching. This information will serve as a useful model for those athletic training programs looking for an alternative method of assessing student and program outcomes. PMID:16558359

Structure induction in diagnostic causal reasoning.

PubMed

Meder, Björn; Mayrhofer, Ralf; Waldmann, Michael R

2014-07-01

Our research examines the normative and descriptive adequacy of alternative computational models of diagnostic reasoning from single effects to single causes. Many theories of diagnostic reasoning are based on the normative assumption that inferences from an effect to its cause should reflect solely the empirically observed conditional probability of cause given effect. We argue against this assumption, as it neglects alternative causal structures that may have generated the sample data. Our structure induction model of diagnostic reasoning takes into account the uncertainty regarding the underlying causal structure. A key prediction of the model is that diagnostic judgments should not only reflect the empirical probability of cause given effect but should also depend on the reasoner's beliefs about the existence and strength of the link between cause and effect. We confirmed this prediction in 2 studies and showed that our theory better accounts for human judgments than alternative theories of diagnostic reasoning. Overall, our findings support the view that in diagnostic reasoning people go "beyond the information given" and use the available data to make inferences on the (unobserved) causal rather than on the (observed) data level. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Benchmark dose analysis via nonparametric regression modeling

PubMed Central

Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

2013-01-01

Estimation of benchmark doses (BMDs) in quantitative risk assessment traditionally is based upon parametric dose-response modeling. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric model is uncertain and/or misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We describe a nonparametric approach for estimating BMDs with quantal-response data based on an isotonic regression method, and also study use of corresponding, nonparametric, bootstrap-based confidence limits for the BMD. We explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a simulation study, and illustrate the calculations with an example from cancer risk assessment. It is seen that this nonparametric approach can provide a useful alternative for BMD estimation when faced with the problem of parametric model uncertainty. PMID:23683057

Counseling Model Application: A Student Career Development Guidance for Decision Maker and Consultation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irwan; Gustientiedina; Sunarti; Desnelita, Yenny

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to design a counseling model application for a decision-maker and consultation system. This application as an alternative guidance and individual career development for students, that include career knowledge, planning and alternative options from an expert tool based on knowledge and rule to provide the solutions on student’s career decisions. This research produces a counseling model application to obtain the important information about student career development and facilitating individual student’s development through the service form, to connect their plan with their career according to their talent, interest, ability, knowledge, personality and other supporting factors. This application model can be used as tool to get information faster and flexible for the student’s guidance and counseling. So, it can help students in doing selection and making decision that appropriate with their choice of works.

Just allocation and team loyalty: a new virtue ethic for emergency medicine

PubMed Central

Girod, J; Beckman, A

2005-01-01

When traditional virtue ethics is applied to clinical medicine, it often claims as its goal the good of the individual patient, and focuses on the dyadic relationship between one physician and one patient. An alternative model of virtue ethics, more appropriate to the practice of emergency medicine, will be outlined by this paper. This alternative model is based on the assumption that the appropriate goal of the practice of emergency medicine is a team approach to the medical wellbeing of individual patients, constrained by the wellbeing of the patient population served by a particular emergency department. By defining boundaries and using the key virtues of justice and team loyalty, this model fits emergency practice well and gives care givers the conceptual clarity to apply this model to various conflicts both within the department and with those outside the department. PMID:16199595

Embarked electrical network robust control based on singular perturbation model.

PubMed

Abdeljalil Belhaj, Lamya; Ait-Ahmed, Mourad; Benkhoris, Mohamed Fouad

2014-07-01

This paper deals with an approach of modelling in view of control for embarked networks which can be described as strongly coupled multi-sources, multi-loads systems with nonlinear and badly known characteristics. This model has to be representative of the system behaviour and easy to handle for easy regulators synthesis. As a first step, each alternator is modelled and linearized around an operating point and then it is subdivided into two lower order systems according to the singular perturbation theory. RST regulators are designed for each subsystem and tested by means of a software test-bench which allows predicting network behaviour in both steady and transient states. Finally, the designed controllers are implanted on an experimental benchmark constituted by two alternators supplying loads in order to test the dynamic performances in realistic conditions. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parametric regression model for survival data: Weibull regression model as an example

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Weibull regression model is one of the most popular forms of parametric regression model that it provides estimate of baseline hazard function, as well as coefficients for covariates. Because of technical difficulties, Weibull regression model is seldom used in medical literature as compared to the semi-parametric proportional hazard model. To make clinical investigators familiar with Weibull regression model, this article introduces some basic knowledge on Weibull regression model and then illustrates how to fit the model with R software. The SurvRegCensCov package is useful in converting estimated coefficients to clinical relevant statistics such as hazard ratio (HR) and event time ratio (ETR). Model adequacy can be assessed by inspecting Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by categorical variable. The eha package provides an alternative method to model Weibull regression model. The check.dist() function helps to assess goodness-of-fit of the model. Variable selection is based on the importance of a covariate, which can be tested using anova() function. Alternatively, backward elimination starting from a full model is an efficient way for model development. Visualization of Weibull regression model after model development is interesting that it provides another way to report your findings. PMID:28149846

Definition and sensitivity of the conceptual MORDOR rainfall-runoff model parameters using different multi-criteria calibration strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garavaglia, F.; Seyve, E.; Gottardi, F.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.

2014-12-01

MORDOR is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) operational applications: (i) hydrological forecasting, (ii) flood risk assessment, (iii) water balance and (iv) climate change studies. MORDOR is a lumped, reservoir, elevation based model with hourly or daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 20 years, in particular for modeling French mountainous watersheds. In the matter of parameters calibration we propose and test alternative multi-criteria techniques based on two specific approaches: automatic calibration using single-objective functions and a priori parameter calibration founded on hydrological watershed features. The automatic calibration approach uses single-objective functions, based on Kling-Gupta efficiency, to quantify the good agreement between the simulated and observed runoff focusing on four different runoff samples: (i) time-series sample, (I) annual hydrological regime, (iii) monthly cumulative distribution functions and (iv) recession sequences.The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the definition and sensitivity of MORDOR parameters testing different calibration techniques in order to: (i) simplify the model structure, (ii) increase the calibration-validation performance of the model and (iii) reduce the equifinality problem of calibration process. We propose an alternative calibration strategy that reaches these goals. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating MORDOR model to daily data for 50 watersheds located in French mountainous regions.

Research on potential user identification model for electric energy substitution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Huaijian; Chen, Meiling; Lin, Haiying; Yang, Shuo; Miao, Bo; Zhu, Xinzhi

2018-01-01

The implementation of energy substitution plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in china. Energy service management platform of alternative energy users based on the data in the enterprise production value, product output, coal and other energy consumption as a potential evaluation index, using principal component analysis model to simplify the formation of characteristic index, comprehensive index contains the original variables, and using fuzzy clustering model for the same industry user’s flexible classification. The comprehensive index number and user clustering classification based on constructed particle optimization neural network classification model based on the user, user can replace electric potential prediction. The results of an example show that the model can effectively predict the potential of users’ energy potential.

Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Population Distribution Using Spline-Based Densities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Carol M.; Thissen, David

2006-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method for fitting item response theory models with the latent population distribution estimated from the data using splines. A spline-based density estimation system provides a flexible alternative to existing procedures that use a normal distribution, or a different functional form, for the…

Program Evaluation of a Competency-Based Online Model in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiGiacomo, Karen

2017-01-01

In order to serve its nontraditional students, a university piloted a competency-based program as alternative method for its students to earn college credit. The purpose of this mixed-methods study was to conduct a summative program evaluation to determine if the program was successful in order to make decisions about program revision and…

The Blackfeet Indian culture camp: Auditioning an alternative indigenous treatment for substance use disorders.

PubMed

Gone, Joseph P; Calf Looking, Patrick E

2015-05-01

American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) communities experience alarming health disparities, including high rates of substance use disorders (SUDs). Psychological services for AIANs, including SUDs treatment, are primarily funded by the federal Indian Health Service and typically administered by tribal governments. Tribal administration of SUDs treatment programs has routinely involved either inclusion of traditional cultural practices into program activities or adaptation of conventional treatment approaches to distinctive community sensibilities. In this article, we investigate a third possibility: the collaborative, community-based development of an alternative indigenous intervention that was implemented as a form of SUDs treatment in its own right and on its own terms. Specifically, in July of 2012, we undertook a trial implementation of a seasonal cultural immersion camp based on traditional Pikuni Blackfeet Indian cultural practices for 4 male clients from the reservation's federally funded SUDs treatment program. Given a variety of logistical and methodological constraints, the pilot offering of the culture camp primarily served as a demonstration of "proof of concept" for this alternative indigenous intervention. In presenting and reflecting on this effort, we consider many challenges associated with alternative indigenous treatment models, especially those associated with formal outcome evaluation. Indeed, we suggest that the motivation for developing local indigenous alternatives for AIAN SUDs treatment may work at cross-purposes to the rigorous assessment of therapeutic efficacy for such interventions. Nevertheless, we conclude that these efforts afford ample opportunities for expanding the existing knowledge base concerning the delivery of community-based psychological services for AIANs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Argumentation in Science Education: A Model-based Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böttcher, Florian; Meisert, Anke

2011-02-01

The goal of this article is threefold: First, the theoretical background for a model-based framework of argumentation to describe and evaluate argumentative processes in science education is presented. Based on the general model-based perspective in cognitive science and the philosophy of science, it is proposed to understand arguments as reasons for the appropriateness of a theoretical model which explains a certain phenomenon. Argumentation is considered to be the process of the critical evaluation of such a model if necessary in relation to alternative models. Secondly, some methodological details are exemplified for the use of a model-based analysis in the concrete classroom context. Third, the application of the approach in comparison with other analytical models will be presented to demonstrate the explicatory power and depth of the model-based perspective. Primarily, the framework of Toulmin to structurally analyse arguments is contrasted with the approach presented here. It will be demonstrated how common methodological and theoretical problems in the context of Toulmin's framework can be overcome through a model-based perspective. Additionally, a second more complex argumentative sequence will also be analysed according to the invented analytical scheme to give a broader impression of its potential in practical use.

Application of artificial neural networks in nonlinear analysis of trusses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alam, J.; Berke, L.

1991-01-01

A method is developed to incorporate neural network model based upon the Backpropagation algorithm for material response into nonlinear elastic truss analysis using the initial stiffness method. Different network configurations are developed to assess the accuracy of neural network modeling of nonlinear material response. In addition to this, a scheme based upon linear interpolation for material data, is also implemented for comparison purposes. It is found that neural network approach can yield very accurate results if used with care. For the type of problems under consideration, it offers a viable alternative to other material modeling methods.

On the convergence of nonconvex minimization methods for image recovery.

PubMed

Xiao, Jin; Ng, Michael Kwok-Po; Yang, Yu-Fei

2015-05-01

Nonconvex nonsmooth regularization method has been shown to be effective for restoring images with neat edges. Fast alternating minimization schemes have also been proposed and developed to solve the nonconvex nonsmooth minimization problem. The main contribution of this paper is to show the convergence of these alternating minimization schemes, based on the Kurdyka-Łojasiewicz property. In particular, we show that the iterates generated by the alternating minimization scheme, converges to a critical point of this nonconvex nonsmooth objective function. We also extend the analysis to nonconvex nonsmooth regularization model with box constraints, and obtain similar convergence results of the related minimization algorithm. Numerical examples are given to illustrate our convergence analysis.

Bioethics and deliberative democracy: five warnings from Hobbes.

PubMed

Trotter, Griffin

2006-06-01

Thomas Hobbes is one of the most ardent and thoroughgoing opponents of participatory democracy among Western political philosophers. Though Hobbes's alternative to participatory democracy-assent by subjects to rule by an absolute sovereign-no longer constitutes a viable political alternative for Westerners, his critique of participatory democracy is a potentially valuable source of insight about its liabilities. This essay elaborates five theses from Hobbes that stand as cogent warnings to those who embrace participatory democracy, especially those (such as most bioethicists) advocating for deliberative democracy based on a rational consensus model. In light of these warnings, the author suggests an alternative, modus vivendi approach to deliberative democracy that would radically alter the current practice of bioethics.

Individual-based modelling and control of bovine brucellosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nepomuceno, Erivelton G.; Barbosa, Alípio M.; Silva, Marcos X.; Perc, Matjaž

2018-05-01

We present a theoretical approach to control bovine brucellosis. We have used individual-based modelling, which is a network-type alternative to compartmental models. Our model thus considers heterogeneous populations, and spatial aspects such as migration among herds and control actions described as pulse interventions are also easily implemented. We show that individual-based modelling reproduces the mean field behaviour of an equivalent compartmental model. Details of this process, as well as flowcharts, are provided to facilitate the reproduction of the presented results. We further investigate three numerical examples using real parameters of herds in the São Paulo state of Brazil, in scenarios which explore eradication, continuous and pulsed vaccination and meta-population effects. The obtained results are in good agreement with the expected behaviour of this disease, which ultimately showcases the effectiveness of our theory.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Process Identification under Model Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Dai, H.; Walker, A. P.; Shi, L.; Yang, J.

2015-12-01

The environmental system consists of various physical, chemical, and biological processes, and environmental models are always built to simulate these processes and their interactions. For model building, improvement, and validation, it is necessary to identify important processes so that limited resources can be used to better characterize the processes. While global sensitivity analysis has been widely used to identify important processes, the process identification is always based on deterministic process conceptualization that uses a single model for representing a process. However, environmental systems are complex, and it happens often that a single process may be simulated by multiple alternative models. Ignoring the model uncertainty in process identification may lead to biased identification in that identified important processes may not be so in the real world. This study addresses this problem by developing a new method of global sensitivity analysis for process identification. The new method is based on the concept of Sobol sensitivity analysis and model averaging. Similar to the Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters, our new method evaluates variance change when a process is fixed at its different conceptualizations. The variance considers both parametric and model uncertainty using the method of model averaging. The method is demonstrated using a synthetic study of groundwater modeling that considers recharge process and parameterization process. Each process has two alternative models. Important processes of groundwater flow and transport are evaluated using our new method. The method is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of environmental problems.

Serum albumin 'camouflage' of plant virus based nanoparticles prevents their antibody recognition and enhances pharmacokinetics.

PubMed

Pitek, Andrzej S; Jameson, Slater A; Veliz, Frank A; Shukla, Sourabh; Steinmetz, Nicole F

2016-05-01

Plant virus-based nanoparticles (VNPs) are a novel class of nanocarriers with unique potential for biomedical applications. VNPs have many advantageous properties such as ease of manufacture and high degree of quality control. Their biocompatibility and biodegradability make them an attractive alternative to synthetic nanoparticles (NPs). Nevertheless, as with synthetic NPs, to be successful in drug delivery or imaging, the carriers need to overcome several biological barriers including innate immune recognition. Plasma opsonization can tag (V)NPs for clearance by the mononuclear phagocyte system (MPS), resulting in shortened circulation half lives and non-specific sequestration in non-targeted organs. PEG coatings have been traditionally used to 'shield' nanocarriers from immune surveillance. However, due to broad use of PEG in cosmetics and other industries, the prevalence of anti-PEG antibodies has been reported, which may limit the utility of PEGylation in nanomedicine. Alternative strategies are needed to tailor the in vivo properties of (plant virus-based) nanocarriers. We demonstrate the use of serum albumin (SA) as a viable alternative. SA conjugation to tobacco mosaic virus (TMV)-based nanocarriers results in a 'camouflage' effect more effective than PEG coatings. SA-'camouflaged' TMV particles exhibit decreased antibody recognition, as well as enhanced pharmacokinetics in a Balb/C mouse model. Therefore, SA-coatings may provide an alternative and improved coating technique to yield (plant virus-based) NPs with improved in vivo properties enhancing drug delivery and molecular imaging. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relation between social information processing and intimate partner violence in dating couples.

PubMed

Setchell, Sarah; Fritz, Patti Timmons; Glasgow, Jillian

2017-07-01

We used couple-level data to predict physical acts of intimate partner violence (IPV) from self-reported negative emotions and social information-processing (SIP) abilities among 100 dating couples (n = 200; mean age = 21.45 years). Participants read a series of hypothetical conflict situation vignettes and responded to questionnaires to assess negative emotions and various facets of SIP including attributions for partner behavior, generation of response alternatives, and response selection. We conducted a series of negative binomial mixed-model regressions based on the actor-partner interdependence model (APIM; Kenny, Kashy, & Cook, 2006, Dyadic data analysis. New York, NY: Guilford Press). There were significant results for the response generation and negative emotion models. Participants who generated fewer coping response alternatives were at greater risk of victimization (actor effect). Women were at greater risk of victimization if they had partners who generated fewer coping response alternatives (sex by partner interaction effect). Generation of less competent coping response alternatives predicted greater risk of perpetration among men, whereas generation of more competent coping response alternatives predicted greater risk of victimization among women (sex by actor interaction effects). Two significant actor by partner interaction effects were found for the negative emotion models. Participants who reported discrepant levels of negative emotions from their partners were at greatest risk of perpetration. Participants who reported high levels of negative emotions were at greatest risk of victimization if they had partners who reported low levels of negative emotions. This research has implications for researchers and clinicians interested in addressing the problem of IPV. Aggr. Behav. 43:329-341, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Hydrostratigraphic Model and Alternatives for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Unit 97: Yucca Flat-Climax Mine, Lincoln and Nye Counties, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geotechnical Sciences Group Bechtel Nevada

2006-01-01

A new three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic framework model for the Yucca Flat-Climax Mine Corrective Action Unit was completed in 2005. The model area includes Yucca Flat and Climax Mine, former nuclear testing areas at the Nevada Test Site, and proximal areas. The model area is approximately 1,250 square kilometers in size and is geologically complex. Yucca Flat is a topographically closed basin typical of many valleys in the Basin and Range province. Faulted and tilted blocks of Tertiary-age volcanic rocks and underlying Proterozoic and Paleozoic sedimentary rocks form low ranges around the structural basin. During the Cretaceous Period a granitic intrusive wasmore » emplaced at the north end of Yucca Flat. A diverse set of geological and geophysical data collected over the past 50 years was used to develop a structural model and hydrostratigraphic system for the basin. These were integrated using EarthVision? software to develop the 3-dimensional hydrostratigraphic framework model. Fifty-six stratigraphic units in the model area were grouped into 25 hydrostratigraphic units based on each unit's propensity toward aquifer or aquitard characteristics. The authors organized the alluvial section into 3 hydrostratigraphic units including 2 aquifers and 1 confining unit. The volcanic units in the model area are organized into 13 hydrostratigraphic units that include 8 aquifers and 5 confining units. The underlying pre-Tertiary rocks are divided into 7 hydrostratigraphic units, including 3 aquifers and 4 confining units. Other units include 1 Tertiary-age sedimentary confining unit and 1 Mesozoic-age granitic confining unit. The model depicts the thickness, extent, and geometric relationships of these hydrostratigraphic units (''layers'' in the model) along with the major structural features (i.e., faults). The model incorporates 178 high-angle normal faults of Tertiary age and 2 low-angle thrust faults of Mesozoic age. The complexity of the model area and the non-uniqueness of some of the interpretations incorporated into the base model made it necessary to formulate alternative interpretations for some of the major features in the model. Five of these alternatives were developed so they could be modeled in the same fashion as the base model. This work was done for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office in support of the Underground Test Area subproject of the Environmental Restoration Project.« less