Assessing Anger Expression: Construct Validity of Three Emotion Expression-Related Measures

PubMed Central

Jasinski, Matthew J.; Lumley, Mark A.; Latsch, Deborah V.; Schuster, Erik; Kinner, Ellen; Burns, John W.

2016-01-01

Self-report measures of emotional expression are common, but their validity to predict objective emotional expression, particularly of anger, is unclear. We tested the validity of the Anger Expression Inventory (AEI; Spielberger et al., 1985)), Emotional Approach Coping Scale (EAC; Stanton, Kirk, Cameron & Danoff-Burg, 2000), and Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20 (TAS-20; Bagby, Taylor, & Parker, 1994) to predict objective anger expression in 95 adults with chronic back pain. Participants attempted to solve a difficult computer maze by following the directions of a confederate who treated them rudely and unjustly. Participants then expressed their feelings for 4 minutes. Blinded raters coded the videos for anger expression, and a software program analyzed expression transcripts for anger-related words. Analyses related each questionnaire to anger expression. The AEI anger-out scale predicted greater anger expression, as expected, but AEI anger-in did not. The EAC emotional processing scale predicted less anger expression, but the EAC emotional expression scale was unrelated to anger expression. Finally, the TAS-20 predicted greater anger expression. Findings support the validity of the AEI anger-out scale but raise questions about the other measures. The assessment of emotional expression by self-report is complex and perhaps confounded by general emotional experience, the specificity or generality of the emotion(s) assessed, and self-awareness limitations. Performance-based or clinician-rated measures of emotion expression are needed. PMID:27248355

Amino acid pair- and triplet-wise groupings in the interior of α-helical segments in proteins.

PubMed

de Sousa, Miguel M; Munteanu, Cristian R; Pazos, Alejandro; Fonseca, Nuno A; Camacho, Rui; Magalhães, A L

2011-02-21

A statistical approach has been applied to analyse primary structure patterns at inner positions of α-helices in proteins. A systematic survey was carried out in a recent sample of non-redundant proteins selected from the Protein Data Bank, which were used to analyse α-helix structures for amino acid pairing patterns. Only residues more than three positions apart from both termini of the α-helix were considered as inner. Amino acid pairings i, i+k (k=1, 2, 3, 4, 5), were analysed and the corresponding 20×20 matrices of relative global propensities were constructed. An analysis of (i, i+4, i+8) and (i, i+3, i+4) triplet patterns was also performed. These analysis yielded information on a series of amino acid patterns (pairings and triplets) showing either high or low preference for α-helical motifs and suggested a novel approach to protein alphabet reduction. In addition, it has been shown that the individual amino acid propensities are not enough to define the statistical distribution of these patterns. Global pair propensities also depend on the type of pattern, its composition and orientation in the protein sequence. The data presented should prove useful to obtain and refine useful predictive rules which can further the development and fine-tuning of protein structure prediction algorithms and tools. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aircraft drag prediction and reduction. Addendum 1: Computational drag analyses and minimization; mission impossible?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slooff, J. W.

1986-01-01

The Special Course on Aircraft Drag Prediction was sponsored by the AGARD Fluid Dynamics Panel and the von Karman Institute and presented at the von Karman Institute, Rhode-Saint-Genese, Belgium, on 20 to 23 May 1985 and at the NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, USA, 5 to 6 August 1985. The course began with a general review of drag reduction technology. Then the possibility of reduction of skin friction through control of laminar flow and through modification of the structure of the turbulence in the boundary layer were discussed. Methods for predicting and reducing the drag of external stores, of nacelles, of fuselage protuberances, and of fuselage afterbodies were then presented followed by discussion of transonic drag rise. The prediction of viscous and wave drag by a method matching inviscid flow calculations and boundary layer integral calculations, and the reduction of transonic drag through boundary layer control are also discussed. This volume comprises Paper No. 9 Computational Drag Analyses and Minimization: Mission Impossible, which was not included in AGARD Report 723 (main volume).

Changes in Soil Carbon Storage After Cultivation

DOE Data Explorer

Mann, L. K. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2004-01-01

Previously published data from 625 paired soil samples were used to predict carbon in cultivated soil as a function of initial carbon content. A 30-cm sampling depth provided a less variable estimate (r² = 0.9) of changes in carbon than a 15-cm sampling depth (r² = 0.6). Regression analyses of changes in carbon storage in relation to years of cultivation confirmed that the greatest rates of change occurred in the first 20 y. An initial carbon effect was present in all analyses: soils very low in carbon tended to gain slight amounts of carbon after cultivation, but soils high in carbon lost at least 20% during cultivation. Carbon losses from most agricultural soils are estimated to average less than 20% of initial values or less than 1.5 kg/m² within the top 30 cm. These estimates should not be applied to depths greater than 30 cm and would be improved with more bulk density information and equivalent sample volumes.

Structural Analysis and Test Comparison of a 20-Meter Inflation-Deployed Solar Sail

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleight, David W.; Mann, Troy; Lichodziejewski, David; Derbes, Billy

2006-01-01

Under the direction of the NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Office, the team of L Garde, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Ball Aerospace, and NASA Langley Research Center has been developing a scalable solar sail configuration to address NASA s future space propulsion needs. Prior to a flight experiment of a full-scale solar sail, a comprehensive test program was implemented to advance the technology readiness level of the solar sail design. These tests consisted of solar sail component, subsystem, and sub-scale system ground tests that simulated the aspects of the space environment such as vacuum and thermal conditions. In July 2005, a 20-m four-quadrant solar sail system test article was tested in the NASA Glenn Research Center s Space Power Facility to measure its static and dynamic structural responses. Key to the maturation of solar sail technology is the development of validated finite element analysis (FEA) models that can be used for design and analysis of solar sails. A major objective of the program was to utilize the test data to validate the FEA models simulating the solar sail ground tests. The FEA software, ABAQUS, was used to perform the structural analyses to simulate the ground tests performed on the 20-m solar sail test article. This paper presents the details of the FEA modeling, the structural analyses simulating the ground tests, and a comparison of the pretest and post-test analysis predictions with the ground test results for the 20-m solar sail system test article. The structural responses that are compared in the paper include load-deflection curves and natural frequencies for the beam structural assembly and static shape, natural frequencies, and mode shapes for the solar sail membrane. The analysis predictions were in reasonable agreement with the test data. Factors that precluded better correlation of the analyses and the tests were unmeasured initial conditions in the test set-up.

Weight-based stigmatization, psychological distress, & binge eating behavior among obese treatment-seeking adults.

PubMed

Ashmore, Jamile A; Friedman, Kelli E; Reichmann, Simona K; Musante, Gerard J

2008-04-01

To evaluate the associations between weight-based stigmatization, psychological distress, and binge eating behavior in a treatment-seeking obese sample. Ninety-three obese adults completed three questionnaires: 1) Stigmatizing Situations Inventory, 2) Brief Symptoms Inventory, and 3) Binge Eating Questionnaire. Correlational analyses were used to evaluate the association between stigmatizing experiences, psychological distress and binge eating behavior. Stigmatizing experiences predicted both binge eating behavior (R(2)=.20, p<.001) and overall psychological distress (R(2)=.18, p<.001). A substantial amount of the variance in binge eating predicted by weight-based stigmatization was due to the effect of psychological distress. Specifically, of the 20% of the variance in binge eating accounted for by stigmatizing experiences, between 7% and 34% (p<.01) was due to the effects of various indicators of psychological distress. These data suggest that weight-based stigmatization predicts binge eating behavior and that psychological distress associated with stigmatizing experiences may be an important mediating factor.

Raising the Legal Age of Tobacco Sales: Policy Support and Trust in Government, 2014-2015, U.S.

PubMed

Lee, Joseph G L; Boynton, Marcella H; Richardson, Amanda; Jarman, Kristen; Ranney, Leah M; Goldstein, Adam O

2016-12-01

The National Academy of Medicine has called for an increase in the minimum age of tobacco product sales. It is not clear what age increase would garner the greatest public support, or whether trust in the U.S. government predicts policy support. The data for these analyses are from a nationally representative telephone sample of U.S. adults (N=4,880) conducted from September 2014 to May 2015. The authors assessed whether support varied by the proposed minimum age of tobacco sales using a survey experiment (i.e., random assignment to the 19-, 20-, or 21-year age minimum condition) and, in cross-sectional analyses, whether smoking status, individual demographics, state-level politics, and general trust in the government predicted policy support. Analyses were conducted from May to December 2015. Odds of support for raising the minimum sales age to 21 years trended higher than support for raising to age 20 or 19 years (AOR=1.22, 95% CI=0.97, 1.53, p=0.09). There was majority support for raising the age of sales for cigarettes in all regions of the U.S. (66.3%, 95% CI=64.0, 68.6). Race, age, and trust in government were significant predictors of support. Raising the age of tobacco sales is broadly supported by the public. An age 21 years tobacco sales policy trends toward garnering more support than a policy at age 19 or 20 years. Trust in government may be an important consideration in understanding policy support beyond demographics. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ventral Striatum Functional Connectivity as a Predictor of Adolescent Depressive Disorder in a Longitudinal Community-Based Sample.

PubMed

Pan, Pedro Mario; Sato, João R; Salum, Giovanni A; Rohde, Luis A; Gadelha, Ary; Zugman, Andre; Mari, Jair; Jackowski, Andrea; Picon, Felipe; Miguel, Eurípedes C; Pine, Daniel S; Leibenluft, Ellen; Bressan, Rodrigo A; Stringaris, Argyris

2017-11-01

Previous studies have implicated aberrant reward processing in the pathogenesis of adolescent depression. However, no study has used functional connectivity within a distributed reward network, assessed using resting-state functional MRI (fMRI), to predict the onset of depression in adolescents. This study used reward network-based functional connectivity at baseline to predict depressive disorder at follow-up in a community sample of adolescents. A total of 637 children 6-12 years old underwent resting-state fMRI. Discovery and replication analyses tested intrinsic functional connectivity (iFC) among nodes of a putative reward network. Logistic regression tested whether striatal node strength, a measure of reward-related iFC, predicted onset of a depressive disorder at 3-year follow-up. Further analyses investigated the specificity of this prediction. Increased left ventral striatum node strength predicted increased risk for future depressive disorder (odds ratio=1.54, 95% CI=1.09-2.18), even after excluding participants who had depressive disorders at baseline (odds ratio=1.52, 95% CI=1.05-2.20). Among 11 reward-network nodes, only the left ventral striatum significantly predicted depression. Striatal node strength did not predict other common adolescent psychopathology, such as anxiety, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and substance use. Aberrant ventral striatum functional connectivity specifically predicts future risk for depressive disorder. This finding further emphasizes the need to understand how brain reward networks contribute to youth depression.

Predictive value of early changes in triglycerides and weight for longer-term changes in metabolic measures during olanzapine, ziprasidone or aripiprazole treatment for schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder post hoc analyses of 3 randomized, controlled clinical trials.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Vicki P; Case, Michael; Stauffer, Virginia L; Jacobson, Jennie G; Conley, Robert R

2010-12-01

The objective of this study was to determine if early changes in triglycerides and weight may be useful in predicting longer-term changes in weight and other metabolic parameters. Data were from three 24- to 28-week randomized, controlled studies comparing olanzapine to ziprasidone or aripiprazole for treatment of schizophrenia. Analyses were restricted to completers with fasting laboratory data at all protocol specified time points. Analyses were primarily descriptive and included mean changes and categorical outcomes. In all treatment groups, participants who did not experience a 20 mg/dL or greater increase in triglycerides at early time points were unlikely to experience a change of 50 mg/dL or more in triglycerides after 6 months. Negative predictive values were 83% to 95%. However, early change in triglycerides was not useful for predicting later change in glucose, cholesterol, or weight. Similarly, early weight change gave robust negative predictive values for longer-term weight change (≥10 kg), but not for change in glucose or cholesterol. Lack of early elevation in triglyceride concentrations was predictive of later lack of substantial increase in triglycerides in olanzapine-, ziprasidone-, and aripiprazole-treated participants. Lack of early elevation in weight was predictive of later lack of substantial increase in weight in all 3 treatment groups. Early monitoring of triglyceride concentrations and weight may help clinicians assess risk that individuals will experience significant increase in triglycerides or weight gain, allowing assessments of potential risks and benefits earlier in treatment. Clinical monitoring is advised throughout treatment for all patients.

Controlling for Frailty in Pharmacoepidemiologic Studies of Older Adults: Validation of an Existing Medicare Claims-based Algorithm.

PubMed

Cuthbertson, Carmen C; Kucharska-Newton, Anna; Faurot, Keturah R; Stürmer, Til; Jonsson Funk, Michele; Palta, Priya; Windham, B Gwen; Thai, Sydney; Lund, Jennifer L

2018-07-01

Frailty is a geriatric syndrome characterized by weakness and weight loss and is associated with adverse health outcomes. It is often an unmeasured confounder in pharmacoepidemiologic and comparative effectiveness studies using administrative claims data. Among the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study Visit 5 participants (2011-2013; n = 3,146), we conducted a validation study to compare a Medicare claims-based algorithm of dependency in activities of daily living (or dependency) developed as a proxy for frailty with a reference standard measure of phenotypic frailty. We applied the algorithm to the ARIC participants' claims data to generate a predicted probability of dependency. Using the claims-based algorithm, we estimated the C-statistic for predicting phenotypic frailty. We further categorized participants by their predicted probability of dependency (<5%, 5% to <20%, and ≥20%) and estimated associations with difficulties in physical abilities, falls, and mortality. The claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty (C-statistic = 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67, 0.74). Participants classified with a high predicted probability of dependency (≥20%) had higher prevalence of falls and difficulty in physical ability, and a greater risk of 1-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 5.7 [95% CI = 2.5, 13]) than participants classified with a low predicted probability (<5%). Sensitivity and specificity varied across predicted probability of dependency thresholds. The Medicare claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty and high predictive ability with adverse health outcomes. This algorithm can be used in future Medicare claims analyses to reduce confounding by frailty and improve study validity.

Transmembrane helix prediction: a comparative evaluation and analysis.

PubMed

Cuthbertson, Jonathan M; Doyle, Declan A; Sansom, Mark S P

2005-06-01

The prediction of transmembrane (TM) helices plays an important role in the study of membrane proteins, given the relatively small number (approximately 0.5% of the PDB) of high-resolution structures for such proteins. We used two datasets (one redundant and one non-redundant) of high-resolution structures of membrane proteins to evaluate and analyse TM helix prediction. The redundant (non-redundant) dataset contains structure of 434 (268) TM helices, from 112 (73) polypeptide chains. Of the 434 helices in the dataset, 20 may be classified as 'half-TM' as they are too short to span a lipid bilayer. We compared 13 TM helix prediction methods, evaluating each method using per segment, per residue and termini scores. Four methods consistently performed well: SPLIT4, TMHMM2, HMMTOP2 and TMAP. However, even the best methods were in error by, on average, about two turns of helix at the TM helix termini. The best and worst case predictions for individual proteins were analysed. In particular, the performance of the various methods and of a consensus prediction method, were compared for a number of proteins (e.g. SecY, ClC, KvAP) containing half-TM helices. The difficulties of predicting half-TM helices suggests that current prediction methods successfully embody the two-state model of membrane protein folding, but do not accommodate a third stage in which, e.g., short helices and re-entrant loops fold within a bundle of stable TM helices.

Predicting Well-being Longitudinally for Mothers Rearing Offspring with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

PubMed Central

Grein, Katherine A.; Glidden, Laraine Masters

2014-01-01

Background Well-being outcomes for parents of children with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) may vary from positive to negative at different times and for different measures of well-being. Predicting and explaining this variability has been a major focus of family research for reasons that have both theoretical and applied implications. Methods The current study used data from a 23-year longitudinal investigation of adoptive and birth parents of children with IDD to determine which early child, mother, and family characteristics would predict the variance in maternal outcomes 20 years after their original measurement. Using hierarchical regression analyses, we tested the predictive power of variables measured when children were 7 years old on outcomes of maternal well-being when children were 26 years old. Outcome variables included maternal self-report measures of depression and well–being. Results Final models of well-being accounted for 20% to 34% of variance. For most outcomes, Family Accord and/or the personality variable of Neuroticism (emotional stability/instability) were significant predictors, but some variables demonstrated a different pattern. Conclusions These findings confirm that 1) Characteristics of the child, mother, and family during childhood can predict outcomes of maternal well-being 20 years later; and 2) Different predictor-outcome relationships can vary substantially, highlighting the importance of using multiple measures to gain a more comprehensive understanding of maternal well-being. These results have implications for refining prognoses for parents and for tailoring service delivery to individual child, parent, and family characteristics. PMID:25185956

Analysis of functional redundancies within the Arabidopsis TCP transcription factor family.

PubMed

Danisman, Selahattin; van Dijk, Aalt D J; Bimbo, Andrea; van der Wal, Froukje; Hennig, Lars; de Folter, Stefan; Angenent, Gerco C; Immink, Richard G H

2013-12-01

Analyses of the functions of TEOSINTE-LIKE1, CYCLOIDEA, and PROLIFERATING CELL FACTOR1 (TCP) transcription factors have been hampered by functional redundancy between its individual members. In general, putative functionally redundant genes are predicted based on sequence similarity and confirmed by genetic analysis. In the TCP family, however, identification is impeded by relatively low overall sequence similarity. In a search for functionally redundant TCP pairs that control Arabidopsis leaf development, this work performed an integrative bioinformatics analysis, combining protein sequence similarities, gene expression data, and results of pair-wise protein-protein interaction studies for the 24 members of the Arabidopsis TCP transcription factor family. For this, the work completed any lacking gene expression and protein-protein interaction data experimentally and then performed a comprehensive prediction of potential functional redundant TCP pairs. Subsequently, redundant functions could be confirmed for selected predicted TCP pairs by genetic and molecular analyses. It is demonstrated that the previously uncharacterized class I TCP19 gene plays a role in the control of leaf senescence in a redundant fashion with TCP20. Altogether, this work shows the power of combining classical genetic and molecular approaches with bioinformatics predictions to unravel functional redundancies in the TCP transcription factor family.

Analysis of functional redundancies within the Arabidopsis TCP transcription factor family

PubMed Central

Danisman, Selahattin; de Folter, Stefan; Immink, Richard G. H.

2013-01-01

Analyses of the functions of TEOSINTE-LIKE1, CYCLOIDEA, and PROLIFERATING CELL FACTOR1 (TCP) transcription factors have been hampered by functional redundancy between its individual members. In general, putative functionally redundant genes are predicted based on sequence similarity and confirmed by genetic analysis. In the TCP family, however, identification is impeded by relatively low overall sequence similarity. In a search for functionally redundant TCP pairs that control Arabidopsis leaf development, this work performed an integrative bioinformatics analysis, combining protein sequence similarities, gene expression data, and results of pair-wise protein–protein interaction studies for the 24 members of the Arabidopsis TCP transcription factor family. For this, the work completed any lacking gene expression and protein–protein interaction data experimentally and then performed a comprehensive prediction of potential functional redundant TCP pairs. Subsequently, redundant functions could be confirmed for selected predicted TCP pairs by genetic and molecular analyses. It is demonstrated that the previously uncharacterized class I TCP19 gene plays a role in the control of leaf senescence in a redundant fashion with TCP20. Altogether, this work shows the power of combining classical genetic and molecular approaches with bioinformatics predictions to unravel functional redundancies in the TCP transcription factor family. PMID:24129704

The Montreal Cognitive Assessment and the mini-mental state examination as screening instruments for cognitive impairment: item analyses and threshold scores.

PubMed

Damian, Anne M; Jacobson, Sandra A; Hentz, Joseph G; Belden, Christine M; Shill, Holly A; Sabbagh, Marwan N; Caviness, John N; Adler, Charles H

2011-01-01

To perform an item analysis of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) versus the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in the prediction of cognitive impairment, and to examine the characteristics of different MoCA threshold scores. 135 subjects enrolled in a longitudinal clinicopathologic study were administered the MoCA by a single physician and the MMSE by a trained research assistant. Subjects were classified as cognitively impaired or cognitively normal based on independent neuropsychological testing. 89 subjects were found to be cognitively normal, and 46 cognitively impaired (20 with dementia, 26 with mild cognitive impairment). The MoCA was superior in both sensitivity and specificity to the MMSE, although not all MoCA tasks were of equal predictive value. A MoCA threshold score of 26 had a sensitivity of 98% and a specificity of 52% in this population. In a population with a 20% prevalence of cognitive impairment, a threshold of 24 was optimal (negative predictive value 96%, positive predictive value 47%). This analysis suggests the potential for creating an abbreviated MoCA. For screening in primary care, the MoCA threshold of 26 appears optimal. For testing in a memory disorders clinic, a lower threshold has better predictive value. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Maladaptive social information processing in childhood predicts young men’s atypical amygdala reactivity to threat

PubMed Central

Choe, Daniel Ewon; Shaw, Daniel S.; Forbes, Erika E.

2014-01-01

Background Maladaptive social information processing, such as hostile attributional bias and aggressive response generation, is associated with childhood maladjustment. Although social information processing problems are correlated with heightened physiological responses to social threat, few studies have examined their associations with neural threat circuitry, specifically amygdala activation to social threat. Methods A cohort of 310 boys participated in an ongoing longitudinal study and completed questionnaires and laboratory tasks assessing their social and cognitive characteristics between 10- and 12-years-old. At age 20, 178 of these young men underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging and a social threat task. At age 22, adult criminal arrest records and self-reports of impulsiveness were obtained. Results Path models indicated that maladaptive social information processing at ages 10 and 11 predicted increased left amygdala reactivity to fear faces, an ambiguous threat, at age 20 while accounting for childhood antisocial behavior, empathy, IQ, and socioeconomic status. Exploratory analyses indicated that aggressive response generation—the tendency to respond to threat with reactive aggression—predicted left amygdala reactivity to fear faces and was concurrently associated with empathy, antisocial behavior, and hostile attributional bias, whereas hostile attributional bias correlated with IQ. Although unrelated to social information processing problems, bilateral amygdala reactivity to anger faces at age 20 was unexpectedly predicted by low IQ at age 11. Amygdala activation did not mediate associations between social information processing and number of criminal arrests, but both impulsiveness at age 22 and arrests were correlated with right amygdala reactivity to anger facial expressions at age 20. Conclusions Childhood social information processing and IQ predicted young men’s amygdala response to threat a decade later, which suggests that childhood social-cognitive characteristics are associated with the development of neural threat processing and adult adjustment. PMID:25142952

Comparison of the Prognostic and Predictive Utilities of the 21-Gene Recurrence Score Assay and Adjuvant! for Women with Node-Negative, ER-Positive Breast Cancer: Results from NSABP B-14 and NSABP B-20

PubMed Central

Tang, Gong; Shak, Steven; Paik, Soonmyung; Anderson, Stewart J.; Costantino, Joseph P.; Geyer, Charles E.; Mamounas, Eleftherios P.; Wickerham, D. Lawrence; Wolmark, Norman

2012-01-01

The Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score® (RS) is a validated genomic predictor of outcome and response to adjuvant chemotherapy in ER-positive breast cancer. Adjuvant! was developed using SEER registry data and results from the Early Breast Cancer Clinical Trialists’ overview analyses to estimate outcome and benefit from adjuvant hormonal therapy and chemotherapy. In this report we compare the prognostic and predictive utility of these two tools in node-negative, ER-positive breast cancer. RS and Adjuvant! results were available from 668 tamoxifen-treated NSABP B-14 patients: 227 tamoxifen-treated NSABP B-20 patients, and 424 chemotherapy-plus-tamoxifen-treated B-20 patients. Adjuvant! results were also available from 1952 B-20 patients. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI). Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the prognostic and predictive utility of RS and Adjuvant!. Both RS (p<0.001) and Adjuvant! (p=0.002) provided strong independent prognostic information in tamoxifen-treated patients. Combining RS and individual clinicopathologic characteristics provided greater prognostic discrimination than combining RS and the composite Adjuvant!. In the B-20 cohort with RS results (n=651), RS was significantly predictive of chemotherapy benefit (interaction p=0.031 for DRFI, p=0.011 for overall survival [OS], p=0.082 for disease-free survival [DFS]), but Adjuvant! was not (interaction p=0.99, p=0.311 and p=0.357, respectively). However, in the larger B-20 sub-cohort (n=1952), Adjuvant! was significantly predictive of chemotherapy benefit for OS (interaction p=0.009) but not for DRFI (p=0.219) or DFS (p=0.099). Prognostic estimates can be optimized by combining RS and clinicopathologic information instead of simply combining RS and Adjuvant!. RS should be used for estimating relative chemotherapy benefit. PMID:21221771

Comparison of the prognostic and predictive utilities of the 21-gene Recurrence Score assay and Adjuvant! for women with node-negative, ER-positive breast cancer: results from NSABP B-14 and NSABP B-20.

PubMed

Tang, Gong; Shak, Steven; Paik, Soonmyung; Anderson, Stewart J; Costantino, Joseph P; Geyer, Charles E; Mamounas, Eleftherios P; Wickerham, D Lawrence; Wolmark, Norman

2011-05-01

The Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS) is a validated genomic predictor of outcome and response to adjuvant chemotherapy in ER-positive breast cancer. Adjuvant! was developed using SEER registry data and results from the Early Breast Cancer Clinical Trialists' overview analyses to estimate outcome and benefit from adjuvant hormonal therapy and chemotherapy. In this report we compare the prognostic and predictive utility of these two tools in node-negative, ER-positive breast cancer. RS and Adjuvant! results were available from 668 tamoxifen-treated NSABP B-14 patients, 227 tamoxifen-treated NSABP B-20 patients, and 424 chemotherapy plus tamoxifen-treated B-20 patients. Adjuvant! results were also available from 1952 B-20 patients. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI). Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the prognostic and predictive utility of RS and Adjuvant!. Both RS (P < 0.001) and Adjuvant! (P = 0.002) provided strong independent prognostic information in tamoxifen-treated patients. Combining RS and individual clinicopathologic characteristics provided greater prognostic discrimination than combining RS and the composite Adjuvant!. In the B-20 cohort with RS results (n = 651), RS was significantly predictive of chemotherapy benefit (interaction P = 0.031 for DRFI, P = 0.011 for overall survival [OS], P = 0.082 for disease-free survival [DFS]), but Adjuvant! was not (interaction P = 0.99, P = 0.311, and P = 0.357, respectively). However, in the larger B-20 sub-cohort (n = 1952), Adjuvant! was significantly predictive of chemotherapy benefit for OS (interaction P = 0.009) but not for DRFI (P = 0.219) or DFS (P = 0.099). Prognostic estimates can be optimized by combining RS and clinicopathologic information instead of simply combining RS and Adjuvant!. RS should be used for estimating relative chemotherapy benefit.

MicroRNA-20a-5p promotes colorectal cancer invasion and metastasis by downregulating Smad4.

PubMed

Cheng, Dantong; Zhao, Senlin; Tang, Huamei; Zhang, Dongyuan; Sun, Hongcheng; Yu, Fudong; Jiang, Weiliang; Yue, Ben; Wang, Jingtao; Zhang, Meng; Yu, Yang; Liu, Xisheng; Sun, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Zongguang; Qin, Xuebin; Zhang, Xin; Yan, Dongwang; Wen, Yugang; Peng, Zhihai

2016-07-19

Tumor metastasis is one of the leading causes of poor prognosis for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Loss of Smad4 contributes to aggression process in many human cancers. However, the underlying precise mechanism of aberrant Smad4 expression in CRC development is still little known. miR-20a-5p negatively regulated Smad4 by directly targeting its 3'UTR in human colorectal cancer cells. miR-20a-5p not only promoted CRC cells aggression capacity in vitro and liver metastasis in vivo, but also promoted the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition process by downregulating Smad4 expression. In addition, tissue microarray analysis obtained from 544 CRC patients' clinical characters showed that miR-20a-5p was upregulated in human CRC tissues, especially in the tissues with metastasis. High level of miR-20a-5p predicted poor prognosis in CRC patients. Five miRNA target prediction programs were applied to identify potential miRNA(s) that target(s) Smad4 in CRC. Luciferase reporter assay and transfection technique were used to validate the correlation between miR-20a-5p and Smad4 in CRC. Wound healing, transwell and tumorigenesis assays were used to explore the function of miR-20a-5p and Smad4 in CRC progression in vitro and in vivo. The association between miR-20a-5p expression and the prognosis of CRC patients was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariate cox proportional hazard analyses based on tissue microarray data. miR-20a-5p, as an onco-miRNA, promoted the invasion and metastasis ability by suppressing Smad4 expression in CRC cells, and high miR-20a-5p predicted poor prognosis for CRC patients, providing a novel and promising therapeutic target in human colorectal cancer.

MicroRNA-20a-5p promotes colorectal cancer invasion and metastasis by downregulating Smad4

PubMed Central

Zhang, Dongyuan; Sun, Hongcheng; Yu, Fudong; Yue, Ben; Wang, Jingtao; Zhang, Meng; Yu, Yang; Liu, Xisheng; Sun, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Zongguang; Qin, Xuebin; Zhang, Xin; Yan, Dongwang; Wen, Yugang; Peng, Zhihai

2016-01-01

Background Tumor metastasis is one of the leading causes of poor prognosis for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Loss of Smad4 contributes to aggression process in many human cancers. However, the underlying precise mechanism of aberrant Smad4 expression in CRC development is still little known. Results miR-20a-5p negatively regulated Smad4 by directly targeting its 3′UTR in human colorectal cancer cells. miR-20a-5p not only promoted CRC cells aggression capacity in vitro and liver metastasis in vivo, but also promoted the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition process by downregulating Smad4 expression. In addition, tissue microarray analysis obtained from 544 CRC patients’ clinical characters showed that miR-20a-5p was upregulated in human CRC tissues, especially in the tissues with metastasis. High level of miR-20a-5p predicted poor prognosis in CRC patients. Methods Five miRNA target prediction programs were applied to identify potential miRNA(s) that target(s) Smad4 in CRC. Luciferase reporter assay and transfection technique were used to validate the correlation between miR-20a-5p and Smad4 in CRC. Wound healing, transwell and tumorigenesis assays were used to explore the function of miR-20a-5p and Smad4 in CRC progression in vitro and in vivo. The association between miR-20a-5p expression and the prognosis of CRC patients was evaluated by Kaplan–Meier analysis and multivariate cox proportional hazard analyses based on tissue microarray data. Conclusions miR-20a-5p, as an onco-miRNA, promoted the invasion and metastasis ability by suppressing Smad4 expression in CRC cells, and high miR-20a-5p predicted poor prognosis for CRC patients, providing a novel and promising therapeutic target in human colorectal cancer. PMID:27286257

Utility of brief questionnaires of health-related quality of life (Airways Questionnaire 20 and Clinical COPD Questionnaire) to predict exacerbations in patients with asthma and COPD

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There is some evidence that quality of life measured by long disease-specific questionnaires may predict exacerbations in asthma and COPD, however brief quality of life tools, such as the Airways Questionnaire 20 (AQ20) or the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ), have not yet been evaluated as predictors of hospital exacerbations. Objectives To determine the ability of brief specific health-related quality of life (HRQoL) questionnaires (AQ20 and CCQ) to predict emergency department visits (ED) and hospitalizations in patients with asthma and COPD, and to compare them to longer disease-specific questionnaires, such as the St George´s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), the Chronic Respiratory Disease Questionnaire (CRQ) and the Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ). Methods We conducted a two-year prospective cohort study of 208 adult patients (108 asthma, 100 COPD). Baseline sociodemographic, clinical, functional and psychological variables were assessed. All patients completed the AQ20 and the SGRQ. COPD patients also completed the CCQ and the CRQ, while asthmatic patients completed the AQLQ. We registered all exacerbations that required ED or hospitalizations in the follow-up period. Differences between groups (zero ED visits or hospitalizations versus ≥ 1 ED visits or hospitalizations) were tested with Pearson´s X2 or Fisher´s exact test for categorical variables, ANOVA for normally distributed continuous variables, and Mann–Whitney U test for non-normally distributed variables. Logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the predictive ability of each HRQoL questionnaire. Results In the first year of follow-up, the AQ20 scores predicted both ED visits (OR: 1.19; p = .004; AUC 0.723) and hospitalizations (OR: 1.21; p = .04; AUC 0.759) for asthma patients, and the CCQ emerged as independent predictor of ED visits in COPD patients (OR: 1.06; p = .036; AUC 0.651), after adjusting for sociodemographic, clinical, and psychological variables. Among the longer disease-specific questionnaires, only the AQLQ emerged as predictor of ED visits in asthma patients (OR: 0.9; p = .002; AUC 0.727). In the second year of follow-up, none of HRQoL questionnaires predicted exacerbations. Conclusions AQ20 predicts exacerbations in asthma and CCQ predicts ED visits in COPD in the first year of follow-up. Their predictive ability is similar to or even higher than that of longer disease-specific questionnaires. PMID:23706146

Long-term fertilization alters chemically-separated soil organic carbon pools: Based on stable C isotope analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dou, Xiaolin; He, Ping; Cheng, Xiaoli; Zhou, Wei

2016-01-01

Quantification of dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools under the influence of long-term fertilization is essential for predicting carbon (C) sequestration. We combined soil chemical fractionation with stable C isotope analyses to investigate the C dynamics of the various SOC pools after 25 years of fertilization. Five types of soil samples (0-20, 20-40 cm) including the initial level (CK) and four fertilization treatments (inorganic nitrogen fertilizer, IN; balanced inorganic fertilizer, NPK; inorganic fertilizer plus farmyard manure, MNPK; inorganic fertilizer plus corn straw residue, SNPK) were separated into recalcitrant and labile fractions, and the fractions were analysed for C content, C:N ratios, δ13C values, soil C and N recalcitrance indexes (RIC and RIN). Chemical fractionation showed long-term MNPK fertilization strongly increased the SOC storage in both soil layers (0-20 cm = 1492.4 gC m2 and 20-40 cm = 1770.6 gC m2) because of enhanced recalcitrant C (RC) and labile C (LC). The 25 years of inorganic fertilizer treatment did not increase the SOC storage mainly because of the offsetting effects of enhanced RC and decreased LC, whereas no clear SOC increases under the SNPK fertilization resulted from the fast decay rates of soil C.

Long-term fertilization alters chemically-separated soil organic carbon pools: Based on stable C isotope analyses.

PubMed

Dou, Xiaolin; He, Ping; Cheng, Xiaoli; Zhou, Wei

2016-01-11

Quantification of dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools under the influence of long-term fertilization is essential for predicting carbon (C) sequestration. We combined soil chemical fractionation with stable C isotope analyses to investigate the C dynamics of the various SOC pools after 25 years of fertilization. Five types of soil samples (0-20, 20-40 cm) including the initial level (CK) and four fertilization treatments (inorganic nitrogen fertilizer, IN; balanced inorganic fertilizer, NPK; inorganic fertilizer plus farmyard manure, MNPK; inorganic fertilizer plus corn straw residue, SNPK) were separated into recalcitrant and labile fractions, and the fractions were analysed for C content, C:N ratios, δ(13)C values, soil C and N recalcitrance indexes (RIC and RIN). Chemical fractionation showed long-term MNPK fertilization strongly increased the SOC storage in both soil layers (0-20 cm = 1492.4 gC m(2) and 20-40 cm = 1770.6 gC m(2)) because of enhanced recalcitrant C (RC) and labile C (LC). The 25 years of inorganic fertilizer treatment did not increase the SOC storage mainly because of the offsetting effects of enhanced RC and decreased LC, whereas no clear SOC increases under the SNPK fertilization resulted from the fast decay rates of soil C.

Childhood social withdrawal, interpersonal impairment, and young adult depression: a mediational model.

PubMed

Katz, Shaina J; Conway, Christopher C; Hammen, Constance L; Brennan, Patricia A; Najman, Jake M

2011-11-01

Building on interpersonal theories of depression, the current study sought to explore whether early childhood social withdrawal serves as a risk factor for depressive symptoms and diagnoses in young adulthood. The researchers hypothesized that social impairment at age 15 would mediate the association between social withdrawal at age 5 and depression by age 20. This mediational model was tested in a community sample of 702 Australian youth followed from mother's pregnancy to youth age 20. Structural equation modeling analyses found support for a model in which childhood social withdrawal predicted adolescent social impairment, which, in turn, predicted depression in young adulthood. Additionally, gender was found to moderate the relationship between adolescent social impairment and depression in early adulthood, with females exhibiting a stronger association between social functioning and depression at the symptom and diagnostic level. This study illuminates one potential pathway from early developing social difficulties to later depressive symptoms and disorders.

Childhood Social Withdrawal, Interpersonal Impairment, and Young Adult Depression: A Mediational Model

PubMed Central

Katz, Shaina J.; Conway, Christopher C.; Hammen, Constance L.; Brennan, Patricia A.; Najman, Jake M.

2012-01-01

Building on interpersonal theories of depression, the current study sought to explore whether early childhood social withdrawal serves as a risk factor for depressive symptoms and diagnoses in young adulthood. The researchers hypothesized that social impairment at age 15 would mediate the association between social withdrawal at age 5 and depression by age 20. This mediational model was tested in a community sample of 702 Australian youth followed from mother’s pregnancy to youth age 20. Structural equation modeling analyses found support for a model in which childhood social withdrawal predicted adolescent social impairment, which, in turn, predicted depression in young adulthood. Additionally, gender was found to moderate the relationship between adolescent social impairment and depression in early adulthood, with females exhibiting a stronger association between social functioning and depression at the symptom and diagnostic level. This study illuminates one potential pathway from early developing social difficulties to later depressive symptoms and disorders. PMID:21744059

Couples at Risk Following the Death of Their Child: Predictors of Grief versus Depression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wijngaards-de Meij, Leoniek; Stroebe, Margaret; Schut, Henk; Stroebe, Wolfgang; van den Bout, Jan; van der Heijden, Peter; Dijkstra, Iris

2005-01-01

This longitudinal study examined the relative impact of major variables for predicting adjustment (in terms of both grief and depression) among bereaved parents following the death of their child. Couples (N = 219) participated 6, 13, and 20 months postloss. Use of multilevel regression analyses enabled assessment of the impact of several…

Childhood Internalizing and Externalizing Problems Predict the Onset of Clinical Panic Attacks over Adolescence: The TRAILS Study

PubMed Central

Mathyssek, Christina M.; Olino, Thomas M.; Verhulst, Frank C.; van Oort, Floor V. A.

2012-01-01

Background Panic attacks are a source of individual suffering and are an independent risk factor for later psychopathology. However, much less is known about risk factors for the development of panic attacks, particularly during adolescence when the incidence of panic attacks increases dramatically. We examined whether internalizing and externalizing problems in childhood predict the onset of panic attacks in adolescence. Method This study is part of the TRacking Adolescents’ Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS), a Dutch longitudinal population cohort study (N = 1,584). Internalizing and Externalizing Problems were collected using the Youth Self-Report (YSR) and the parent-report Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) at baseline (age 10–12). At age 18–20, DSM-IV defined panic attacks since baseline were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). We investigated whether early adolescent Internalizing and Externalizing Problems predicted panic attacks between ages 10–20 years, using survival analysis in univariate and multivariate models. Results There were N = 314 (19.8%) cases who experienced at least one DSM-IV defined panic attack during adolescence and N = 18 (1.2%) who developed panic disorder during adolescence. In univariate analyses, CBCL Total Problems, Internalizing Problems and three of the eight syndrome scales predicted panic attack onset, while on the YSR all broad-band problem scales and each narrow-band syndrome scale predicted panic attack onset. In multivariate analyses, CBCL Social Problems (HR 1.19, p<.05), and YSR Thought Problems (HR 1.15, p<.05) and Social Problems (HR 1.26, p<.01) predicted panic attack onset. Conclusion Risk indicators of panic attack include the wide range of internalizing and externalizing problems. Yet, when adjusted for co-occurring problem behaviors, Social Problems were the most consistent risk factor for panic attack onsets in adolescence. PMID:23251576

Paternity testing that involves a DNA mixture.

PubMed

Mortera, Julia; Vecchiotti, Carla; Zoppis, Silvia; Merigioli, Sara

2016-07-01

Here we analyse a complex disputed paternity case, where the DNA of the putative father was extracted from his corpse that had been inhumed for over 20 years. This DNA was contaminated and appears to be a mixture of at least two individuals. Furthermore, the mother's DNA was not available. The DNA mixture was analysed so as to predict the most probable genotypes of each contributor. The major contributor's profile was then used to compute the likelihood ratio for paternity. We also show how to take into account a dropout allele and the possibility of mutation in paternity testing. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intraspecific scaling of arterial blood pressure in the Burmese python.

PubMed

Enok, Sanne; Slay, Christopher; Abe, Augusto S; Hicks, James W; Wang, Tobias

2014-07-01

Interspecific allometric analyses indicate that mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) increases with body mass of snakes and mammals. In snakes, MAP increases in proportion to the increased distance between the heart and the head, when the heart-head vertical distance is expressed as ρgh (where ρ is the density of blood, G: is acceleration due to gravity and h is the vertical distance above the heart), and the rise in MAP is associated with a larger heart to normalize wall stress in the ventricular wall. Based on measurements of MAP in Burmese pythons ranging from 0.9 to 3.7 m in length (0.20-27 kg), we demonstrate that although MAP increases with body mass, the rise in MAP is merely half of that predicted by heart-head distance. Scaling relationships within individual species, therefore, may not be accurately predicted by existing interspecific analyses. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Aggression and risk of future violence in forensic psychiatric patients with and without dyslexia.

PubMed

Selenius, Heidi; Hellström, Ake; Belfrage, Henrik

2011-05-01

Dyslexia does not cause criminal behaviour, but it may worsen aggressive behaviour tendencies. In this study, aggressive behaviour and risk of future violence were compared between forensic psychiatric patients with and without dyslexia. Dyslexia was assessed using the Swedish phonological processing battery 'The Pigeon'. The patients filled in the Aggression Questionnaire, and trained assessors performed the risk assessments using HCR-20 version 2. Patients with dyslexia self-reported more aggressive behaviour compared with those without dyslexia. There was only a nearly significant tendency (p = 0.06) for the patients with dyslexia to receive higher scores in the HCR-20 compared with the patients without dyslexia, and phonological processing skills did not significantly predict aggression or risk of future violence. However, regression analyses demonstrated that poor phonological processing skills are a significant predictor of anger, which in turn significantly predicts risk of future violence. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting well-being longitudinally for mothers rearing offspring with intellectual and developmental disabilities.

PubMed

Grein, K A; Glidden, L M

2015-07-01

Well-being outcomes for parents of children with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) may vary from positive to negative at different times and for different measures of well-being. Predicting and explaining this variability has been a major focus of family research for reasons that have both theoretical and applied implications. The current study used data from a 23-year longitudinal investigation of adoptive and birth parents of children with IDD to determine which early child, mother and family characteristics would predict the variance in maternal outcomes 20 years after their original measurement. Using hierarchical regression analyses, we tested the predictive power of variables measured when children were 7 years old on outcomes of maternal well-being when children were 26 years old. Outcome variables included maternal self-report measures of depression and well-being. Final models of well-being accounted for 20% to 34% of variance. For most outcomes, Family Accord and/or the personality variable of Neuroticism (emotional stability/instability) were significant predictors, but some variables demonstrated a different pattern. These findings confirm that (1) characteristics of the child, mother and family during childhood can predict outcomes of maternal well-being 20 years later; and (2) different predictor-outcome relationships can vary substantially, highlighting the importance of using multiple measures to gain a more comprehensive understanding of maternal well-being. These results have implications for refining prognoses for parents and for tailoring service delivery to individual child, parent and family characteristics. © 2014 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of a developmental hierarchy for breast cancer cells to assess risk-based patient selection for targeted treatment.

PubMed

Bliss, Sarah A; Paul, Sunirmal; Pobiarzyn, Piotr W; Ayer, Seda; Sinha, Garima; Pant, Saumya; Hilton, Holly; Sharma, Neha; Cunha, Maria F; Engelberth, Daniel J; Greco, Steven J; Bryan, Margarette; Kucia, Magdalena J; Kakar, Sham S; Ratajczak, Mariusz Z; Rameshwar, Pranela

2018-01-10

This study proposes that a novel developmental hierarchy of breast cancer (BC) cells (BCCs) could predict treatment response and outcome. The continued challenge to treat BC requires stratification of BCCs into distinct subsets. This would provide insights on how BCCs evade treatment and adapt dormancy for decades. We selected three subsets, based on the relative expression of octamer-binding transcription factor 4 A (Oct4A) and then analysed each with Affymetrix gene chip. Oct4A is a stem cell gene and would separate subsets based on maturation. Data analyses and gene validation identified three membrane proteins, TMEM98, GPR64 and FAT4. BCCs from cell lines and blood from BC patients were analysed for these three membrane proteins by flow cytometry, along with known markers of cancer stem cells (CSCs), CD44, CD24 and Oct4, aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) activity and telomere length. A novel working hierarchy of BCCs was established with the most immature subset as CSCs. This group was further subdivided into long- and short-term CSCs. Analyses of 20 post-treatment blood indicated that circulating CSCs and early BC progenitors may be associated with recurrence or early death. These results suggest that the novel hierarchy may predict treatment response and prognosis.

True grit and genetics: predicting academic achievement from personality

PubMed Central

Rimfeld, Kaili; Kovas, Yulia; Dale, Philip S.; Plomin, Robert

2015-01-01

Grit -- perseverance and passion for long-term goals -- has been shown to be a significant predictor of academic success, even after controlling for other personality factors. Here, for the first time, we use a UK-representative sample and a genetically sensitive design to unpack the etiology of grit and its prediction of academic achievement in comparison to well-established personality traits. For 4,642 16-year-olds (2,321 twin pairs), we used the Grit-S scale (Perseverance of Effort and Consistency of Interest), along with the Big-5 personality traits, to predict scores on the General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) exams, which are administered UK-wide at the end of compulsory education. Twin analyses of Grit Perseverance yielded a heritability estimate of 37% (20% for Consistency of Interest) and no evidence for shared environmental influence. Personality, primarily Conscientiousness, predicts about 6% of the variance in GCSE scores, but Grit adds little to this prediction. Moreover, multivariate twin analyses showed that roughly two-thirds of the GCSE prediction is mediated genetically. Grit Perseverance of Effort and Big-5 Conscientiousness are to a large extent the same trait both phenotypically (r=0.53) and genetically (genetic correlation = 0. 86). We conclude that the etiology of Grit is highly similar to other personality traits, not only in showing substantial genetic influence but also in showing no influence of shared environmental factors. Personality significantly predicts academic achievement, but Grit adds little phenotypically or genetically to the prediction of academic achievement beyond traditional personality factors, especially Conscientiousness. PMID:26867111

Modelling soil erosion in rainfed vineyards of northeast of Spain under climate change: effects of increasing rainfall intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Concepción Ramos, Maria

2017-04-01

This aim of the research was to analyse the effect of rainfall distribution and intensity on soil erosion in vines cultivated in the Mediterranean under the projected climate change scenario. The simulations were done at plot scale using the WEPP model. Climatic data for the period 1996-2014 were obtained from a meteorological station located 6km far from the plot. Soil characteristics such as texture, organic matter content, water retention capacity and infiltration were analysed. Runoff and soil losses were measured at four locations within the plot during 4 years and used to calibrate and validate the model. According to evidences recorded in the area, changes of rainfall intensities of 10 and 20% were considered for different rainfall distributions. The simulations were extended to the predicted changes for 2030, 2050 and 2070 based on the HadGEM2-CC under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 scenario. WEPP model provided a suitable prediction of the seasonal runoff and erosion as simulated relatively well the runoff and erosion of the most important events although some deficiencies were found for those events that produced low runoff. The simulation confirmed the contribution of the extreme events to annual erosion rates in 70%, on average. The model responded to changes in precipitation predicted under a climate change scenario with a decrease of runoff and erosion, and with higher erosion rates for an increase in rainfall intensity. A 10% increase may imply erosion rates up to 22% greater for the scenario 2030, and despite the predicted decrease in precipitation for the scenario 2050, soil losses may be up to 40% greater than at present for some rainfall distributions and intensity rainfall increases of 20%. These findings show the need of considering rainfall intensity as one of the main driven factors when soil erosion rates under climate change are predicted. Keywords: extreme events, rainfall distribution, runoff, soil losses, wines, WEPP.

Health status and mobility limitations are associated with residential and employment status in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Strassnig, M; Cornacchio, D; Harvey, P D; Kotov, R; Fochtmann, L; Bromet, E J

2017-11-01

Schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorder (BP) are linked to multiple impairments in everyday functioning which share cognitive and symptom risk factors. Other risk factors for critical aspects of every day functioning (e.g., gainful employment; residential independence) such as physical health have not been evaluated, despite poor health in SCZ and BP. We analyzed 20-year follow-up data from the Suffolk County Mental Health Project cohort of consecutive first admissions with a psychotic disorder to 12 psychiatric facilities in Suffolk County, NY, between September 1989 and December 1995. Both 20-year symptom, health, and cognition data, and the 20-year course of weight gain were included as predictors of employment and residence status. The analysis sample consisted of 122 participants with SCZ ad BP, with SCZ participants less likely to work or live independently. Correlational analyses showed symptoms and cognition predicted vocational outcomes in both samples. The effect of diagnosis was significant for both gainful employment and independence in residence. After consideration of diagnosis, mobility and negative symptoms predicted gainful employment in both samples, but there were no additional predictors of residential independence. Prospective analysis of BMI found that baseline BMI, but not changes during the 20-year follow up, predicted labor force participation. Health status limitations were associated with residential and, particularly, employment status independent from other, previously established predictors of everyday outcomes, including cognition and symptoms. The importance of health status limitations for predicting outcome was confirmed in both SCZ and BP, with schizophrenia representing the more impaired group. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationships between Academic Stress, Social Support, Optimism-Pessimism and Self-Esteem in College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fernández-González, L.; González-Hernández, A.; Trianes-Torres, M. V.

2015-01-01

Introduction: This research aims to analyse how optimism, self-esteem and social support help to predict academic stress. Method: The sample consisted of 123 students aged 20 to 31 years old, from the 3rd Year in the Psychology Degree. Students completed the Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale, the Life Orientation Optimism Questionnaire (LOT-R), the…

Development of prediction equations for estimating appendicular skeletal muscle mass in Japanese men and women.

PubMed

Furushima, Taishi; Miyachi, Motohiko; Iemitsu, Motoyuki; Murakami, Haruka; Kawano, Hiroshi; Gando, Yuko; Kawakami, Ryoko; Sanada, Kiyoshi

2017-08-29

This study aimed to develop and cross-validate prediction equations for estimating appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASM) and to examine the relationship between sarcopenia defined by the prediction equations and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) or osteoporosis in Japanese men and women. Subjects were healthy men and women aged 20-90 years, who were randomly allocated to the following two groups: the development group (D group; 257 men, 913 women) and the cross-validation group (V group; 119 men, 112 women). To develop prediction equations, stepwise multiple regression analyses were performed on data obtained from the D group, using ASM measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a dependent variable and five easily obtainable measures (age, height, weight, waist circumference, and handgrip strength) as independent variables. When the prediction equations for ASM estimation were applied to the V group, a significant correlation was found between DXA-measured ASM and predicted ASM in both men and women (R 2  = 0.81 and R 2  = 0.72). Our prediction equations had higher R 2 values compared to previously developed equations (R 2  = 0.75-0.59 and R 2  = 0.69-0.40) in both men and women. Moreover, sarcopenia defined by predicted ASM was related to risk factors for osteoporosis and CVD, as well as sarcopenia defined by DXA-measured ASM. In this study, novel prediction equations were developed and cross-validated in Japanese men and women. Our analyses validated the clinical significance of these prediction equations and showed that previously reported equations were not applicable in a Japanese population.

The Physician-Patient Working Alliance in Hemodialysis Treatment.

PubMed

Fuertes, Jairo N; Rubinstein, Sofia; Reyes, Mariela; Iampornpipopchai, Pichet; Mujeeb, Shanza; Smith, Carroll R; Toporovsky, Arielle

2017-01-01

Over the past 20 years, the role of psychological and social factors, including the physician-patient working alliance, have emerged as integral components of medical care for patients with a myriad of health conditions. The current study examines a model comprised of psychological-interpersonal factors and the extent to which it explains patient satisfaction with and adherence to hemodialysis treatment. One hundred and seven adults with end-stage renal disease who were receiving regular outpatient hemodialysis participated in the study. Path analyses show that the physician-patient working alliance indirectly predicts patient adherence through patient satisfaction and patients' outcome expectations. The working alliance directly predicts patients' quality of life. It is concluded that consistent with previous research, the physician-patient working alliance is a significant factor in predicting key patient behaviors in medical care.

CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis for the rapid detection of errors in clinical laboratory test results.

PubMed

Sampson, Maureen L; Gounden, Verena; van Deventer, Hendrik E; Remaley, Alan T

2016-02-01

The main drawback of the periodic analysis of quality control (QC) material is that test performance is not monitored in time periods between QC analyses, potentially leading to the reporting of faulty test results. The objective of this study was to develop a patient based QC procedure for the more timely detection of test errors. Results from a Chem-14 panel measured on the Beckman LX20 analyzer were used to develop the model. Each test result was predicted from the other 13 members of the panel by multiple regression, which resulted in correlation coefficients between the predicted and measured result of >0.7 for 8 of the 14 tests. A logistic regression model, which utilized the measured test result, the predicted test result, the day of the week and time of day, was then developed for predicting test errors. The output of the logistic regression was tallied by a daily CUSUM approach and used to predict test errors, with a fixed specificity of 90%. The mean average run length (ARL) before error detection by CUSUM-Logistic Regression (CSLR) was 20 with a mean sensitivity of 97%, which was considerably shorter than the mean ARL of 53 (sensitivity 87.5%) for a simple prediction model that only used the measured result for error detection. A CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis of patient laboratory data can be an effective approach for the rapid and sensitive detection of clinical laboratory errors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Long-term fertilization alters chemically-separated soil organic carbon pools: Based on stable C isotope analyses

PubMed Central

Dou, Xiaolin; He, Ping; Cheng, Xiaoli; Zhou, Wei

2016-01-01

Quantification of dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools under the influence of long-term fertilization is essential for predicting carbon (C) sequestration. We combined soil chemical fractionation with stable C isotope analyses to investigate the C dynamics of the various SOC pools after 25 years of fertilization. Five types of soil samples (0–20, 20–40 cm) including the initial level (CK) and four fertilization treatments (inorganic nitrogen fertilizer, IN; balanced inorganic fertilizer, NPK; inorganic fertilizer plus farmyard manure, MNPK; inorganic fertilizer plus corn straw residue, SNPK) were separated into recalcitrant and labile fractions, and the fractions were analysed for C content, C:N ratios, δ13C values, soil C and N recalcitrance indexes (RIC and RIN). Chemical fractionation showed long-term MNPK fertilization strongly increased the SOC storage in both soil layers (0–20 cm = 1492.4 gC m2 and 20–40 cm = 1770.6 gC m2) because of enhanced recalcitrant C (RC) and labile C (LC). The 25 years of inorganic fertilizer treatment did not increase the SOC storage mainly because of the offsetting effects of enhanced RC and decreased LC, whereas no clear SOC increases under the SNPK fertilization resulted from the fast decay rates of soil C. PMID:26750143

Annotated Draft Genome Assemblies for the Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and the Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata) Reveal Disparate Estimates of Modern Genome Diversity and Historic Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Oldeschulte, David L; Halley, Yvette A; Wilson, Miranda L; Bhattarai, Eric K; Brashear, Wesley; Hill, Joshua; Metz, Richard P; Johnson, Charles D; Rollins, Dale; Peterson, Markus J; Bickhart, Derek M; Decker, Jared E; Sewell, John F; Seabury, Christopher M

2017-09-07

Northern bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ; hereafter bobwhite) and scaled quail ( Callipepla squamata ) populations have suffered precipitous declines across most of their US ranges. Illumina-based first- (v1.0) and second- (v2.0) generation draft genome assemblies for the scaled quail and the bobwhite produced N50 scaffold sizes of 1.035 and 2.042 Mb, thereby producing a 45-fold improvement in contiguity over the existing bobwhite assembly, and ≥90% of the assembled genomes were captured within 1313 and 8990 scaffolds, respectively. The scaled quail assembly (v1.0 = 1.045 Gb) was ∼20% smaller than the bobwhite (v2.0 = 1.254 Gb), which was supported by kmer-based estimates of genome size. Nevertheless, estimates of GC content (41.72%; 42.66%), genome-wide repetitive content (10.40%; 10.43%), and MAKER-predicted protein coding genes (17,131; 17,165) were similar for the scaled quail (v1.0) and bobwhite (v2.0) assemblies, respectively. BUSCO analyses utilizing 3023 single-copy orthologs revealed a high level of assembly completeness for the scaled quail (v1.0; 84.8%) and the bobwhite (v2.0; 82.5%), as verified by comparison with well-established avian genomes. We also detected 273 putative segmental duplications in the scaled quail genome (v1.0), and 711 in the bobwhite genome (v2.0), including some that were shared among both species. Autosomal variant prediction revealed ∼2.48 and 4.17 heterozygous variants per kilobase within the scaled quail (v1.0) and bobwhite (v2.0) genomes, respectively, and estimates of historic effective population size were uniformly higher for the bobwhite across all time points in a coalescent model. However, large-scale declines were predicted for both species beginning ∼15-20 KYA. Copyright © 2017 Oldeschulte et al.

Renal Atrophy Secondary to Chemoradiotherapy of Abdominal Malignancies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Gary Y., E-mail: Gary.Yang@RoswellPark.or; May, Kilian Salerno; Iyer, Renuka V.

2010-10-01

Purpose: To identify factors predictive of renal atrophy after chemoradiotherapy of gastrointestinal malignancies. Methods and Materials: Patients who received chemotherapy and abdominal radiotherapy (RT) between 2002 and 2008 were identified for this study evaluating change in kidney size and function after RT. Imaging and biochemical data were obtained before and after RT in 6-month intervals. Kidney size was defined by craniocaudal measurement on CT images. The primarily irradiated kidney (PK) was defined as the kidney that received the greater mean kidney dose. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to predict risk for renal atrophy. Results: Of 130 patients, medianmore » age was 64 years, and 51.5% were male. Most primary disease sites were pancreas and periampullary tumors (77.7%). Median follow-up was 9.4 months. Creatinine clearance declined 20.89%, and size of the PK decreased 4.67% 1 year after completion of chemoradiation. Compensatory hypertrophy of the non-PK was not seen. Percentage volumes of the PK receiving {>=}10 Gy (V{sub 10}), 15 Gy (V{sub 15}), and 20 Gy (V{sub 20}) were significantly associated with renal atrophy 1 year after RT (p = 0.0030, 0.0029, and 0.0028, respectively). Areas under the ROC curves for V{sub 10}, V{sub 15}, and V{sub 20} to predict >5% decrease in PK size were 0.760, 0.760, and 0.762, respectively. Conclusions: Significant detriments in PK size and renal function were seen after abdominal RT. The V{sub 10}, V{sub 15}, and V{sub 20} were predictive of risk for PK atrophy 1 year after RT. Analyses suggest the association of lower-dose renal irradiation with subsequent development of renal atrophy.« less

The Bacillus subtilis Conjugative Plasmid pLS20 Encodes Two Ribbon-Helix-Helix Type Auxiliary Relaxosome Proteins That Are Essential for Conjugation.

PubMed

Miguel-Arribas, Andrés; Hao, Jian-An; Luque-Ortega, Juan R; Ramachandran, Gayetri; Val-Calvo, Jorge; Gago-Córdoba, César; González-Álvarez, Daniel; Abia, David; Alfonso, Carlos; Wu, Ling J; Meijer, Wilfried J J

2017-01-01

Bacterial conjugation is the process by which a conjugative element (CE) is transferred horizontally from a donor to a recipient cell via a connecting pore. One of the first steps in the conjugation process is the formation of a nucleoprotein complex at the origin of transfer ( oriT ), where one of the components of the nucleoprotein complex, the relaxase, introduces a site- and strand specific nick to initiate the transfer of a single DNA strand into the recipient cell. In most cases, the nucleoprotein complex involves, besides the relaxase, one or more additional proteins, named auxiliary proteins, which are encoded by the CE and/or the host. The conjugative plasmid pLS20 replicates in the Gram-positive Firmicute bacterium Bacillus subtilis . We have recently identified the relaxase gene and the oriT of pLS20, which are separated by a region of almost 1 kb. Here we show that this region contains two auxiliary genes that we name aux1 LS20 and aux2 LS20 , and which we show are essential for conjugation. Both Aux1 LS20 and Aux2 LS20 are predicted to contain a Ribbon-Helix-Helix DNA binding motif near their N-terminus. Analyses of the purified proteins show that Aux1 LS20 and Aux2 LS20 form tetramers and hexamers in solution, respectively, and that they both bind preferentially to oriT LS20 , although with different characteristics and specificities. In silico analyses revealed that genes encoding homologs of Aux1 LS20 and/or Aux2 LS20 are located upstream of almost 400 relaxase genes of the Rel LS20 family (MOB L ) of relaxases. Thus, Aux1 LS20 and Aux2 LS20 of pLS20 constitute the founding member of the first two families of auxiliary proteins described for CEs of Gram-positive origin.

20 Meter Solar Sail Analysis and Correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taleghani, B. K.; Lively, P. S.; Banik, J.; Murphy, D. M.; Trautt, T. A.

2005-01-01

This paper describes finite element analyses and correlation studies to predict deformations and vibration modes/frequencies of a 20-meter solar sail system developed by ATK Space Systems. Under the programmatic leadership of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's In-Space Propulsion activity, the 20-meter solar sail program objectives were to verify the design, to assess structural responses of the sail system, to implement lessons learned from a previous 10-meter quadrant system analysis and test program, and to mature solar sail technology to a technology readiness level (TRL) of 5. For this 20 meter sail system, static and ground vibration tests were conducted in NASA Glenn Research Center's 100 meter diameter vacuum chamber at Plum Brook station. Prior to testing, a preliminary analysis was performed to evaluate test conditions and to determine sensor and actuator locations. After testing was completed, an analysis of each test configuration was performed. Post-test model refinements included updated properties to account for the mass of sensors, wiring, and other components used for testing. This paper describes the development of finite element models (FEM) for sail membranes and masts in each of four quadrants at both the component and system levels, as well as an optimization procedure for the static test/analyses correlation.

The effects of marine sand and gravel extraction on the sediment composition and macrofaunal community of a commercial dredging site (15 years post-dredging).

PubMed

Waye-Barker, Georgia A; McIlwaine, Paul; Lozach, Sophie; Cooper, Keith M

2015-10-15

A prediction that faunal recovery of a marine aggregate extraction site subjected to high dredging intensity was likely to take 15-20 years was investigated. Samples were collected at the high dredging intensity site and two reference sites in 2011 (15 years post-dredging). Results indicated that the high site had similar sediment characteristics to the reference sites by 2011. Macrofaunal data analyses showed no difference between the values of all calculated univariate measures (abundance, number of taxa, biomass and evenness) between the high and reference sites. Multivariate analyses found that the macrofaunal community at the high site was comparable to those of the reference sites by 2011. Overall, the results supported the predicted recovery time. The findings of the study suggest that persistent physical impacts prolonged the biological recovery of the high site. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experiments and Analyses of Distributed Exhaust Nozzles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinzie, Kevin W.; Schein, David B.; Solomon, W. David, Jr.

2002-01-01

Experimental and analytical aeroacoustic properties of several distributed exhaust nozzle (DEN) designs are presented. Significant differences between the designs are observed and correlated back to Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flowfield predictions. Up to 20 dB of noise reduction on a spectral basis and 10 dB on an overall sound pressure level basis are demonstrated from the DEN designs compared to a round reference nozzle. The most successful DEN designs acoustically show a predicted thrust loss of approximately 10% compared to the reference nozzle. Characteristics of the individual mini-jet nozzles that comprise the DEN such as jet-jet shielding and coalescence are shown to play a major role in the noise signature.

Estimating dead-space fraction for secondary analyses of ARDS clinical trials

PubMed Central

Beitler, Jeremy R.; Thompson, B. Taylor; Matthay, Michael A.; Talmor, Daniel; Liu, Kathleen D.; Zhuo, Hanjing; Hayden, Douglas; Spragg, Roger G.; Malhotra, Atul

2015-01-01

Objective Pulmonary dead-space fraction is one of few lung-specific independent predictors of mortality from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, it is not measured routinely in clinical trials and thus altogether ignored in secondary analyses that shape future research directions and clinical practice. This study sought to validate an estimate of dead-space fraction for use in secondary analyses of clinical trials. Design Analysis of patient-level data pooled from ARDS clinical trials. Four approaches to estimate dead-space fraction were evaluated: three required estimating metabolic rate; one estimated dead-space fraction directly. Setting U.S. academic teaching hospitals. Patients Data from 210 patients across three clinical trials were used to compare performance of estimating equations with measured dead-space fraction. A second cohort of 3,135 patients from six clinical trials without measured dead-space fraction was used to confirm whether estimates independently predicted mortality. Interventions None. Measurements and Main Results Dead-space fraction estimated using the unadjusted Harris-Benedict equation for energy expenditure was unbiased (mean ± SD Harris-Benedict 0.59 ± 0.13; measured 0.60 ± 0.12). This estimate predicted measured dead-space fraction to within ± 0.10 in 70% of patients and ± 0.20 in 95% of patients. Measured dead-space fraction independently predicted mortality (OR 1.36 per 0.05 increase in dead-space fraction, 95% CI 1.10–1.68; p < .01). The Harris-Benedict estimate closely approximated this association with mortality in the same cohort (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.21–1.98; p < .01) and remained independently predictive of death in the larger ARDSNet cohort. Other estimates predicted measured dead-space fraction or its association with mortality less well. Conclusions Dead-space fraction should be measured in future ARDS clinical trials to facilitate incorporation into secondary analyses. For analyses where dead-space fraction was not measured, the Harris-Benedict estimate can be used to estimate dead-space fraction and adjust for its association with mortality. PMID:25738857

Maladaptive social information processing in childhood predicts young men's atypical amygdala reactivity to threat.

PubMed

Choe, Daniel Ewon; Shaw, Daniel S; Forbes, Erika E

2015-05-01

Maladaptive social information processing, such as hostile attributional bias and aggressive response generation, is associated with childhood maladjustment. Although social information processing problems are correlated with heightened physiological responses to social threat, few studies have examined their associations with neural threat circuitry, specifically amygdala activation to social threat. A cohort of 310 boys participated in an ongoing longitudinal study and completed questionnaires and laboratory tasks assessing their social and cognitive characteristics the boys were between 10 and 12 years of age. At age 20, 178 of these young men underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging and a social threat task. At age 22, adult criminal arrest records and self-reports of impulsiveness were obtained. Path models indicated that maladaptive social information-processing at ages 10 and 11 predicted increased left amygdala reactivity to fear faces, an ambiguous threat, at age 20 while accounting for childhood antisocial behavior, empathy, IQ, and socioeconomic status. Exploratory analyses indicated that aggressive response generation - the tendency to respond to threat with reactive aggression - predicted left amygdala reactivity to fear faces and was concurrently associated with empathy, antisocial behavior, and hostile attributional bias, whereas hostile attributional bias correlated with IQ. Although unrelated to social information-processing problems, bilateral amygdala reactivity to anger faces at age 20 was unexpectedly predicted by low IQ at age 11. Amygdala activation did not mediate associations between social information processing and number of criminal arrests, but both impulsiveness at age 22 and arrests were correlated with right amygdala reactivity to anger facial expressions at age 20. Childhood social information processing and IQ predicted young men's amygdala response to threat a decade later, which suggests that childhood social-cognitive characteristics are associated with the development of neural threat processing and adult adjustment. © 2014 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

BALDEY: A database of auditory lexical decisions.

PubMed

Ernestus, Mirjam; Cutler, Anne

2015-01-01

In an auditory lexical decision experiment, 5541 spoken content words and pseudowords were presented to 20 native speakers of Dutch. The words vary in phonological make-up and in number of syllables and stress pattern, and are further representative of the native Dutch vocabulary in that most are morphologically complex, comprising two stems or one stem plus derivational and inflectional suffixes, with inflections representing both regular and irregular paradigms; the pseudowords were matched in these respects to the real words. The BALDEY ("biggest auditory lexical decision experiment yet") data file includes response times and accuracy rates, with for each item morphological information plus phonological and acoustic information derived from automatic phonemic segmentation of the stimuli. Two initial analyses illustrate how this data set can be used. First, we discuss several measures of the point at which a word has no further neighbours and compare the degree to which each measure predicts our lexical decision response outcomes. Second, we investigate how well four different measures of frequency of occurrence (from written corpora, spoken corpora, subtitles, and frequency ratings by 75 participants) predict the same outcomes. These analyses motivate general conclusions about the auditory lexical decision task. The (publicly available) BALDEY database lends itself to many further analyses.

Should regional ventilation function be considered during radiation treatment planning to prevent radiation-induced complications?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lan, Fujun; Jeudy, Jean; D’Souza, Warren

Purpose: To investigate the incorporation of pretherapy regional ventilation function in predicting radiation fibrosis (RF) in stage III nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with concurrent thoracic chemoradiotherapy. Methods: Thirty-seven patients with stage III NSCLC were retrospectively studied. Patients received one cycle of cisplatin–gemcitabine, followed by two to three cycles of cisplatin–etoposide concurrently with involved-field thoracic radiotherapy (46–66 Gy; 2 Gy/fraction). Pretherapy regional ventilation images of the lung were derived from 4D computed tomography via a density change–based algorithm with mass correction. In addition to the conventional dose–volume metrics (V{sub 20}, V{sub 30}, V{sub 40}, and mean lung dose),more » dose–function metrics (fV{sub 20}, fV{sub 30}, fV{sub 40}, and functional mean lung dose) were generated by combining regional ventilation and radiation dose. A new class of metrics was derived and referred to as dose–subvolume metrics (sV{sub 20}, sV{sub 30}, sV{sub 40}, and subvolume mean lung dose); these were defined as the conventional dose–volume metrics computed on the functional lung. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values and logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate these metrics in predicting hallmark characteristics of RF (lung consolidation, volume loss, and airway dilation). Results: AUC values for the dose–volume metrics in predicting lung consolidation, volume loss, and airway dilation were 0.65–0.69, 0.57–0.70, and 0.69–0.76, respectively. The respective ranges for dose–function metrics were 0.63–0.66, 0.61–0.71, and 0.72–0.80 and for dose–subvolume metrics were 0.50–0.65, 0.65–0.75, and 0.73–0.85. Using an AUC value = 0.70 as cutoff value suggested that at least one of each type of metrics (dose–volume, dose–function, dose–subvolume) was predictive for volume loss and airway dilation, whereas lung consolidation cannot be accurately predicted by any of the metrics. Logistic regression analyses showed that dose–function and dose–subvolume metrics were significant (P values ≤ 0.02) in predicting volume airway dilation. Likelihood ratio test showed that when combining dose–function and/or dose–subvolume metrics with dose–volume metrics, the achieved improvements of prediction accuracy on volume loss and airway dilation were significant (P values ≤ 0.04). Conclusions: The authors’ results demonstrated that the inclusion of regional ventilation function improved accuracy in predicting RF. In particular, dose–subvolume metrics provided a promising method for preventing radiation-induced pulmonary complications.« less

Spatial Models for Prediction and Early Warning of Aedes aegypti Proliferation from Data on Climate Change and Variability in Cuba.

PubMed

Ortiz, Paulo L; Rivero, Alina; Linares, Yzenia; Pérez, Alina; Vázquez, Juan R

2015-04-01

Climate variability, the primary expression of climate change, is one of the most important environmental problems affecting human health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite research efforts worldwide, there are few studies addressing the use of information on climate variability for prevention and early warning of vector-borne infectious diseases. Show the utility of climate information for vector surveillance by developing spatial models using an entomological indicator and information on predicted climate variability in Cuba to provide early warning of danger of increased risk of dengue transmission. An ecological study was carried out using retrospective and prospective analyses of time series combined with spatial statistics. Several entomological and climatic indicators were considered using complex Bultó indices -1 and -2. Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient specified for a matrix of neighbors with a radius of 20 km, was used to identify the spatial structure. Spatial structure simulation was based on simultaneous autoregressive and conditional autoregressive models; agreement between predicted and observed values for number of Aedes aegypti foci was determined by the concordance index Di and skill factor Bi. Spatial and temporal distributions of populations of Aedes aegypti were obtained. Models for describing, simulating and predicting spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti populations associated with climate variability patterns were put forward. The ranges of climate variability affecting Aedes aegypti populations were identified. Forecast maps were generated for the municipal level. Using the Bultó indices of climate variability, it is possible to construct spatial models for predicting increased Aedes aegypti populations in Cuba. At 20 x 20 km resolution, the models are able to provide warning of potential changes in vector populations in rainy and dry seasons and by month, thus demonstrating the usefulness of climate information for epidemiological surveillance.

Use of protection motivation theory, affect, and barriers to understand and predict adherence to outpatient rehabilitation.

PubMed

Grindley, Emma J; Zizzi, Samuel J; Nasypany, Alan M

2008-12-01

Protection motivation theory (PMT) has been used in more than 20 different health-related fields to study intentions and behavior, albeit primarily outside the area of injury rehabilitation. In order to examine and predict patient adherence behavior, this study was carried out to explore the use of PMT as a screening tool in a general sample of people with orthopedic conditions. New patients who were more than 18 years old and who were prescribed 4 to 8 weeks of physical therapy treatment (n=229) were administered a screening tool (Sports Injury Rehabilitation Beliefs Scale, Positive and Negative Affect Schedule, and a barriers checklist) prior to treatment. Participants' adherence was assessed with several attendance measures and an in-clinic assessment of behavior. Statistical analyses included correlation, chi-square, multiple regression, and discriminant function analyses. A variety of relationships among affect, barriers, and PMT components were evident. In-clinic behavior and attendance were influenced by affect, whereas dropout status was predicted by affect, severity, self-efficacy, and age. The screening tool used in this study may assist in identifying patients who are at risk for poor adherence and provide valuable information to enhance provider-patient relationships and foster patient adherence. However, it is recommended that more research be conducted to further understand the impact of variables on patient adherence and that the screening tool be enhanced to increase its predictive ability.

Mediators of the relation between war experiences and suicidal ideation among former child soldiers in Northern Uganda: the WAYS study.

PubMed

Amone-P'Olak, Kennedy; Lekhutlile, Tlholego Molemane; Meiser-Stedman, Richard; Ovuga, Emilio

2014-09-24

Globally, suicide is a public health burden especially in the aftermath of war. Understanding the processes that define the path from previous war experiences (WE) to current suicidal ideation (SI) is crucial for defining opportunities for interventions. We assessed the extent to which different types of previous WE predict current SI and whether post-war hardships and depression mediate the relations between WE and SI among former child soldiers (FCS) in Northern Uganda. We performed cross-sectional analyses with a sample of 539 FCS (61% male) participating in an on-going longitudinal study. The influence of various types of previous WE on current SI and mediation by post-war hardships and depression were assessed by regression analyses. The following types of war experiences: "witnessing violence", "direct personal harm", "deaths", "Involvement in hostilities", "sexual abuse" and "general war experiences" significantly predicted current SI in a univariable analyses whereas "direct personal harm", "involvement in hostilities", and "sexual abuse" independently predicted current SI in a multivariable analyses. General WE were linked to SI (β = 0.18 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.25)) through post-war hardships (accounting for 69% of the variance in their relationship) and through depression/anxiety (β = 0.17 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.22)) accounting for 65% of the variance in their relationship. The direct relationship between previous WE and current SI reduced but remained marginally significant (β = .08, CI: (.01, .17) for depression/anxiety but not for post-war hardships (β = .09, CI: (-.03, .20). Types of WE should be examined when assessing risks for SI. Interventions to reduce SI should aim to alleviate post-war hardships and treat depression/anxiety.

Deploying dengue-suppressing Wolbachia : Robust models predict slow but effective spatial spread in Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Turelli, Michael; Barton, Nicholas H

2017-06-01

A novel strategy for controlling the spread of arboviral diseases such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya is to transform mosquito populations with virus-suppressing Wolbachia. In general, Wolbachia transinfected into mosquitoes induce fitness costs through lower viability or fecundity. These maternally inherited bacteria also produce a frequency-dependent advantage for infected females by inducing cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI), which kills the embryos produced by uninfected females mated to infected males. These competing effects, a frequency-dependent advantage and frequency-independent costs, produce bistable Wolbachia frequency dynamics. Above a threshold frequency, denoted pˆ, CI drives fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections through local populations; but below pˆ, infection frequencies tend to decline to zero. If pˆ is not too high, CI also drives spatial spread once infections become established over sufficiently large areas. We illustrate how simple models provide testable predictions concerning the spatial and temporal dynamics of Wolbachia introductions, focusing on rate of spatial spread, the shape of spreading waves, and the conditions for initiating spread from local introductions. First, we consider the robustness of diffusion-based predictions to incorporating two important features of wMel-Aedes aegypti biology that may be inconsistent with the diffusion approximations, namely fast local dynamics induced by complete CI (i.e., all embryos produced from incompatible crosses die) and long-tailed, non-Gaussian dispersal. With complete CI, our numerical analyses show that long-tailed dispersal changes wave-width predictions only slightly; but it can significantly reduce wave speed relative to the diffusion prediction; it also allows smaller local introductions to initiate spatial spread. Second, we use approximations for pˆ and dispersal distances to predict the outcome of 2013 releases of wMel-infected Aedes aegypti in Cairns, Australia, Third, we describe new data from Ae. aegypti populations near Cairns, Australia that demonstrate long-distance dispersal and provide an approximate lower bound on pˆ for wMel in northeastern Australia. Finally, we apply our analyses to produce operational guidelines for efficient transformation of vector populations over large areas. We demonstrate that even very slow spatial spread, on the order of 10-20 m/month (as predicted), can produce area-wide population transformation within a few years following initial releases covering about 20-30% of the target area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lana, X.; Martínez, M. D.; Serra, C.; Burgueño, A.

2010-09-01

The complex spatial and temporal characteristics of European dry spell lengths, DSL, (sequences of consecutive days with rainfall amount below a certain threshold) and their randomness and predictive instability are analysed from daily pluviometric series recorded at 267 rain gauges along the second half of the 20th century. DSL are obtained by considering four thresholds, R0, of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. A proper quantification of the complexity, randomness and predictive instability of the different DSL regimes in Europe is achieved on the basis of fractal analyses and dynamic system theory, including the reconstruction theorem. First, the concept of lacunarity is applied to the series of daily rainfall, and the lacunarity curves are well fitted to Cantor and random Cantor sets. Second, the rescaled analysis reveals that randomness, persistence and anti-persistence are present on the European DSL series. Third, the complexity of the physical process governing the DSL series is quantified by the minimum number of nonlinear equations determined by the correlation dimension. And fourth, the loss of memory of the physical process, which is one of the reasons for the complex predictability, is characterized by the values of the Kolmogorov entropy, and the predictive instability is directly associated with positive Lyapunov exponents. In this way, new bases for a better prediction of DSLs in Europe, sometimes leading to drought episodes, are established. Concretely, three predictive strategies are proposed in Sect. 5. It is worth mentioning that the spatial distribution of all fractal parameters does not solely depend on latitude and longitude but also reflects the effects of orography, continental climate or vicinity to the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and Mediterranean Sea.

Selected Streamflow Statistics and Regression Equations for Predicting Statistics at Stream Locations in Monroe County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Ronald E.; Hoffman, Scott A.

2006-01-01

A suite of 28 streamflow statistics, ranging from extreme low to high flows, was computed for 17 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and predicted for 20 partial-record stations in Monroe County and contiguous counties in north-eastern Pennsylvania. The predicted statistics for the partial-record stations were based on regression analyses relating inter-mittent flow measurements made at the partial-record stations indexed to concurrent daily mean flows at continuous-record stations during base-flow conditions. The same statistics also were predicted for 134 ungaged stream locations in Monroe County on the basis of regression analyses relating the statistics to GIS-determined basin characteristics for the continuous-record station drainage areas. The prediction methodology for developing the regression equations used to estimate statistics was developed for estimating low-flow frequencies. This study and a companion study found that the methodology also has application potential for predicting intermediate- and high-flow statistics. The statistics included mean monthly flows, mean annual flow, 7-day low flows for three recurrence intervals, nine flow durations, mean annual base flow, and annual mean base flows for two recurrence intervals. Low standard errors of prediction and high coefficients of determination (R2) indicated good results in using the regression equations to predict the statistics. Regression equations for the larger flow statistics tended to have lower standard errors of prediction and higher coefficients of determination (R2) than equations for the smaller flow statistics. The report discusses the methodologies used in determining the statistics and the limitations of the statistics and the equations used to predict the statistics. Caution is indicated in using the predicted statistics for small drainage area situations. Study results constitute input needed by water-resource managers in Monroe County for planning purposes and evaluation of water-resources availability.

Which domains of childhood physical activity predict physical activity in adulthood? A 20-year prospective tracking study.

PubMed

Cleland, Verity; Dwyer, Terence; Venn, Alison

2012-06-01

It is important to examine how childhood physical activity is related to adult physical activity in order to best tailor physical activity-promotion strategies. The time- and resource-intensive nature of studies spanning childhood into adulthood means the understanding of physical activity trajectories over this time span is limited. This study aimed to determine whether childhood domain-specific physical activities predict domain-specific physical activity 20 years later in adulthood, and whether age and sex play a role in these trajectories. In 1985, 6412 children of age 9-15 years self-reported frequency and duration of discretionary sport and exercise (leisure activity), transport activity, school sport and physical education (PE) in the past week and number of sports played in the past year. In 2004-2006, 2201 of these participants (aged 26-36 years) completed the long International Physical Activity Questionnaire and/or wore a Yamax pedometer. Analyses included partial correlation coefficients and log-binomial regression. Childhood and adult activity were weakly correlated (r=-0.08-0.14). Total weekly physical activity in childhood did not predict adult activity. School PE predicted adult total weekly physical activity and daily steps (older females), while school sport demonstrated inconsistent associations. Leisure and transport activity in childhood predicted adult leisure activity among younger males and older females, respectively. Childhood past year sport participation positively predicted adult physical activity (younger males and older females). Despite modest associations between childhood and adult physical activity that varied by domain, age and sex, promoting a range of physical activities to children of all ages is warranted.

Can body mass index predict percent body fat and changes in percent body fat with weight loss in bariatric surgery patients?

PubMed

Carey, Daniel G; Raymond, Robert L

2008-07-01

The primary objective of this study was to assess the validity of body mass index (BMI) in predicting percent body fat and changes in percent body fat with weight loss in bariatric surgery patients. Twenty-two bariatric patients (17 female, five male) began the study designed to include 12 months of testing, including data collection within 1 week presurgery and 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year postsurgery. Five female subjects were lost to the study between 6 months and 12 months postsurgery, resulting in 17 subjects (12 female, five male) completing the 12 months of testing. Variables measured in the study included height, weight, percent fat (% fat) by hydrostatic weighing, lean mass, fat mass, and basal metabolic rate. Regression analyses predicting % fat from BMI yielded the following results: presurgery r = 0.173, p = 0.479, standard error of estimate (SEE) = 3.86; 1 month r = 0.468, p = 0.043, SEE = 4.70; 3 months r = 0.553, p = 0.014, SEE = 6.2; 6 months r = 0.611, p = 0.005, SEE = 5.88; 12 months r = 0.596, p = 0.007, SEE = 7.13. Regression analyses predicting change in % fat from change in BMI produced the following results: presurgery to 1 month r = -0.134, p = 0.583, SEE = 2.44%; 1-3 months r = 0.265, p = 0.272, SEE = 2.36%; 3-6 months r = 0.206, p = 0.398, SEE = 3.75%; 6-12 months r = 0.784, p = 0.000, SEE = 3.20. Although some analyses resulted in significant correlation coefficients (p < 0.05), the relatively large SEE values would preclude the use of BMI in predicting % fat or change in % fat with weight loss in bariatric surgery patients.

Quality of courses evaluated by 'predictions' rather than opinions: Fewer respondents needed for similar results.

PubMed

Cohen-Schotanus, Janke; Schönrock-Adema, Johanna; Schmidt, Henk G

2010-01-01

A well-known problem with student surveys is a too low response rate. Experiences with predicting electoral outcomes, which required much smaller sample sizes, inspired us to adopt a similar approach to course evaluation. We expected that having respondents estimate the average opinions of their peers required fewer respondents for comparable outcomes than giving own opinions. Two course evaluation studies were performed among successive first-year medical students (N = 380 and 450, respectively). Study 1: Half the cohort gave opinions on nine questions, while the other half predicted the average outcomes. A prize was offered for the three best predictions (motivational remedy). Study 2: Half the cohort gave opinions, a quarter made predictions without a prize and a quarter made predictions with previous year's results as prior knowledge (cognitive remedy). The numbers of respondents required for stable outcomes were determined following an iterative process. Differences between numbers of respondents required and between average scores were analysed with ANOVA. In both studies, the prediction conditions required significantly fewer respondents (p < 0.001) for comparable outcomes. The informed prediction condition required the fewest respondents (N < 20). Problems with response rates can be reduced by asking respondents to predict evaluation outcomes rather than giving opinions.

Ambient air pollution, lung function, and airway responsiveness in asthmatic children.

PubMed

Ierodiakonou, Despo; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent A; Melly, Steve; Postma, Dirkje S; Boezen, H Marike; Vonk, Judith M; Williams, Paul V; Shapiro, Gail G; McKone, Edward F; Hallstrand, Teal S; Koenig, Jane Q; Schildcrout, Jonathan S; Lumley, Thomas; Fuhlbrigge, Anne N; Koutrakis, Petros; Schwartz, Joel; Weiss, Scott T; Gold, Diane R

2016-02-01

Although ambient air pollution has been linked to reduced lung function in healthy children, longitudinal analyses of pollution effects in asthmatic patients are lacking. We sought to investigate pollution effects in a longitudinal asthma study and effect modification by controller medications. We examined associations of lung function and methacholine responsiveness (PC20) with ozone, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide concentrations in 1003 asthmatic children participating in a 4-year clinical trial. We further investigated whether budesonide and nedocromil modified pollution effects. Daily pollutant concentrations were linked to ZIP/postal code of residence. Linear mixed models tested associations of within-subject pollutant concentrations with FEV1 and forced vital capacity (FVC) percent predicted, FEV1/FVC ratio, and PC20, adjusting for seasonality and confounders. Same-day and 1-week average CO concentrations were negatively associated with postbronchodilator percent predicted FEV1 (change per interquartile range, -0.33 [95% CI, -0.49 to -0.16] and -0.41 [95% CI, -0.62 to -0.21], respectively) and FVC (-0.19 [95% CI, -0.25 to -0.07] and -0.25 [95% CI, -0.43 to -0.07], respectively). Longer-term 4-month CO averages were negatively associated with prebronchodilator percent predicted FEV1 and FVC (-0.36 [95% CI, -0.62 to -0.10] and -0.21 [95% CI, -0.42 to -0.01], respectively). Four-month averaged CO and ozone concentrations were negatively associated with FEV1/FVC ratio (P < .05). Increased 4-month average nitrogen dioxide concentrations were associated with reduced postbronchodilator FEV1 and FVC percent predicted. Long-term exposures to sulfur dioxide were associated with reduced PC20 (percent change per interquartile range, -6% [95% CI, -11% to -1.5%]). Treatment augmented the negative short-term CO effect on PC20. Air pollution adversely influences lung function and PC20 in asthmatic children. Treatment with controller medications might not protect but rather worsens the effects of CO on PC20. This clinical trial design evaluates modification of pollution effects by treatment without confounding by indication. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ambient air pollution, lung function and airway responsiveness in children with asthma

PubMed Central

Ierodiakonou, Despo; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent A.; Melly, Steve; Postma, Dirkje S.; Boezen, H. Marike; Vonk, Judith M.; Williams, Paul V.; Shapiro, Gail G.; McKone, Edward F.; Hallstrand, Teal S.; Koenig, Jane Q.; Schildcrout, Jonathan S.; Lumley, Thomas; Fuhlbrigge, Anne N.; Koutrakis, Petros; Schwartz, Joel; Weiss, Scott T.; Gold, Diane R

2016-01-01

Background Although ambient air pollution has been linked to reduced lung function in healthy children, longitudinal analyses of pollution effects in asthma are lacking. Objective To investigate pollution effects in a longitudinal asthma study and effect modification by controller medications. Methods We examined associations of lung function and methacholine responsiveness (PC20) with ozone, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) levels in 1,003 asthmatic children participating in a 4-year clinical trial. We further investigated whether budesonide and nedocromil modified pollution effects. Daily pollutant concentrations were linked to zip/postal code of residence. Linear mixed models tested associations of within-subject pollutant concentrations with FEV1 and FVC %predicted, FEV1/FVC and PC20, adjusting for seasonality and confounders. Results Same-day and 1-week average CO levels were negatively associated with post-bronchodilator %predicted FEV1 (change(95%CI) per IQR: −0.33(−0.49, −0.16), −0.41(−0.62, −0.21), respectively) and FVC (−0.19(−0.25, −0.07), −0.25(−0.43, −0.07)). Longer-term four-month averages of CO were negatively associated with prebronchodilator %predicted FEV1 and FVC (−0.36(−0.62, −0.10), −0.21(−0.42, −0.01)). Four-month averaged CO and ozone levels were negatively associated with FEV1/FVC (p<0.05). Increased four-month average NO2 levels were associated with reduced post-bronchodilator FEV1 and FVC %predicted. Long-term exposures to SO2 were associated with reduced PC20 (%change(95%CI) per IQR:-6(-11,-1.5)). Treatment augmented the negative short-term CO effect on PC20. Conclusions Air pollution adversely influences lung function and PC20 in asthmatic children. Treatment with controller medications may not protect but worsens the CO effects on PC20. This clinical trial design evaluates modification of pollution effects by treatment without confounding by indication. PMID:26187234

HIV-1 DNA predicts disease progression and post-treatment virological control

PubMed Central

Williams, James P; Hurst, Jacob; Stöhr, Wolfgang; Robinson, Nicola; Brown, Helen; Fisher, Martin; Kinloch, Sabine; Cooper, David; Schechter, Mauro; Tambussi, Giuseppe; Fidler, Sarah; Carrington, Mary; Babiker, Abdel; Weber, Jonathan

2014-01-01

In HIV-1 infection, a population of latently infected cells facilitates viral persistence despite antiretroviral therapy (ART). With the aim of identifying individuals in whom ART might induce a period of viraemic control on stopping therapy, we hypothesised that quantification of the pool of latently infected cells in primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) would predict clinical progression and viral replication following ART. We measured HIV-1 DNA in a highly characterised randomised population of individuals with PHI. We explored associations between HIV-1 DNA and immunological and virological markers of clinical progression, including viral rebound in those interrupting therapy. In multivariable analyses, HIV-1 DNA was more predictive of disease progression than plasma viral load and, at treatment interruption, predicted time to plasma virus rebound. HIV-1 DNA may help identify individuals who could safely interrupt ART in future HIV-1 eradication trials. Clinical trial registration: ISRCTN76742797 and EudraCT2004-000446-20 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03821.001 PMID:25217531

External validation of a nomogram for prediction of side-specific extracapsular extension at robotic radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Zorn, Kevin C; Gallina, Andrea; Hutterer, Georg C; Walz, Jochen; Shalhav, Arieh L; Zagaja, Gregory P; Valiquette, Luc; Gofrit, Ofer N; Orvieto, Marcelo A; Taxy, Jerome B; Karakiewicz, Pierre I

2007-11-01

Several staging tools have been developed for open radical prostatectomy (ORP) patients. However, the validity of these tools has never been formally tested in patients treated with robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (RALP). We tested the accuracy of an ORP-derived nomogram in predicting the rate of extracapsular extension (ECE) in a large RALP cohort. Serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) and side-specific clinical stage and biopsy Gleason sum information were used in a previously validated nomogram predicting side-specific ECE. The nomogram-derived predictions were compared with the observed rate of ECE, and the accuracy of the predictions was quantified. Each prostate lobe was analyzed independently. As complete data were available for 576 patients, the analyses targeted 1152 prostate lobes. Median age and serum PSA concentration at radical prostatectomy were 60 years and 5.4 ng/mL, respectively. The majority of side-specific clinical stages were T(1c) (993; 86.2%). Most side-specific biopsy Gleason sums were 6 (572; 49.7%). The median side-specific percentages of positive cores and of cancer were, respectively, 20.0% and 5.0%. At final pathologic review, 107 patients (18.6%) had ECE, and side-specific ECE was present in 117 patients (20.3%). The nomogram was 89% accurate in the RALP cohort v 84% in the previously reported ORP validation. The ORP side-specific ECE nomogram is highly accurate in the RALP population, suggesting that predictive and possibly prognostic tools developed in ORP patients may be equally accurate in their RALP counterparts.

Prediction of infarction development after endovascular stroke therapy with dual-energy computed tomography.

PubMed

Djurdjevic, Tanja; Rehwald, Rafael; Knoflach, Michael; Matosevic, Benjamin; Kiechl, Stefan; Gizewski, Elke Ruth; Glodny, Bernhard; Grams, Astrid Ellen

2017-03-01

After intraarterial recanalisation (IAR), the haemorrhage and the blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption can be distinguished using dual-energy computed tomography (DECT). The aim of the present study was to investigate whether future infarction development can be predicted from DECT. DECT scans of 20 patients showing 45 BBB disrupted areas after IAR were assessed and compared with follow-up examinations. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses using densities from the iodine map (IM) and virtual non-contrast (VNC) were performed. Future infarction areas are denser than future non-infarction areas on IM series (23.44 ± 24.86 vs. 5.77 ± 2.77; p < 0.0001) and more hypodense on VNC series (29.71 ± 3.33 vs. 35.33 ± 3.50; p < 0.0001). ROC analyses for the IM series showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.99 (cut-off: <9.97 HU; p < 0.05; sensitivity 91.18 %; specificity 100.00 %; accuracy 0.93) for the prediction of future infarctions. The AUC for the prediction of haemorrhagic infarctions was 0.78 (cut-off >17.13 HU; p < 0.05; sensitivity 90.00 %; specificity 62.86 %; accuracy 0.69). The VNC series allowed prediction of infarction volume. Future infarction development after IAR can be reliably predicted with the IM series. The prediction of haemorrhages and of infarction size is less reliable. • The IM series (DECT) can predict future infarction development after IAR. • Later haemorrhages can be predicted using the IM and the BW series. • The volume of definable hypodense areas in VNC correlates with infarction volume.

A Quantitative Analysis of Latino Acculturation and Alcohol Use: Myth Versus Reality.

PubMed

Alvarez, Miriam J; Frietze, Gabriel; Ramos, Corin; Field, Craig; Zárate, Michael A

2017-07-01

Research on health among Latinos often focuses on acculturation processes and the associated stressors that influence drinking behavior. Given the common use of acculturation measures and the state of the knowledge on alcohol-related health among Latino populations, the current analyses tested the efficacy of acculturation measures to predict various indicators of alcohol consumption. Specifically, this quantitative review assessed the predictive utility of acculturation on alcohol consumption behaviors (frequency, volume, and quantity). Two main analyses were conducted-a p-curve analysis and a meta-analysis of the observed associations between acculturation and drinking behavior. Results demonstrated that current measures of acculturation are a statistically significant predictor of alcohol use (Z = -20.75, p < 0.0001). The meta-analysis included a cumulative sample size of 29,589 Latino participants across 31 studies. A random-effects model yielded a weighted average correlation of 0.16 (95% confidence interval = 0.12, 0.19). Additional subgroup analyses examined the effects of gender and using different scales to measure acculturation. Altogether, results demonstrated that acculturation is a useful predictor of alcohol use. In addition, the meta-analysis revealed that a small positive correlation exists between acculturation and alcohol use in Latinos with a between-study variance of only 1.5% (τ 2  = 0.015). Our analyses reveal that the association between current measures of acculturation and alcohol use is relatively small. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Analysis of Percent On-Cell Reformation of Methane in SOFC Stacks and the Effects on Thermal, Electrical, and Mechanical Performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Recknagle, Kurtis P.; Koeppel, Brian J.; Sun, Xin

2007-04-30

Numerical simulations were performed to determine the effect that varying the percent on-cell steam-methane reformation would have on the thermal, electrical, and mechanical performance of generic, planar solid oxide fuel cell stacks. The study was performed using three-dimensional model geometries for cross-, co-, and counter-flow configuration stacks of 10x10- and 20x20-cm cell sizes. The analysis predicted the stress and temperature difference would be minimized for the 10x10-cm counter- and cross-flow stacks when 40 to 50% of the reformation reaction occurred on the anode. Gross electrical power density was virtually unaffected by the reforming. The co-flow stack benefited most from themore » on-cell reforming and had the lowest anode stresses of the 20x20-cm stacks. The analyses also suggest that airflows associated with 15% air utilization may be required for cooling the larger (20x20-cm) stacks.« less

Prediction of lung density changes after radiotherapy by cone beam computed tomography response markers and pre-treatment factors for non-small cell lung cancer patients.

PubMed

Bernchou, Uffe; Hansen, Olfred; Schytte, Tine; Bertelsen, Anders; Hope, Andrew; Moseley, Douglas; Brink, Carsten

2015-10-01

This study investigates the ability of pre-treatment factors and response markers extracted from standard cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images to predict the lung density changes induced by radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Density changes in follow-up computed tomography scans were evaluated for 135 NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. Early response markers were obtained by analysing changes in lung density in CBCT images acquired during the treatment course. The ability of pre-treatment factors and CBCT markers to predict lung density changes induced by radiotherapy was investigated. Age and CBCT markers extracted at 10th, 20th, and 30th treatment fraction significantly predicted lung density changes in a multivariable analysis, and a set of response models based on these parameters were established. The correlation coefficient for the models was 0.35, 0.35, and 0.39, when based on the markers obtained at the 10th, 20th, and 30th fraction, respectively. The study indicates that younger patients without lung tissue reactions early into their treatment course may have minimal radiation induced lung density increase at follow-up. Further investigations are needed to examine the ability of the models to identify patients with low risk of symptomatic toxicity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

MRI textures as outcome predictor for Gamma Knife radiosurgery on vestibular schwannoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langenhuizen, P. P. J. H.; Legters, M. J. W.; Zinger, S.; Verheul, H. B.; Leenstra, S.; de With, P. H. N.

2018-02-01

Vestibular schwannomas (VS) are benign brain tumors that can be treated with high-precision focused radiation with the Gamma Knife in order to stop tumor growth. Outcome prediction of Gamma Knife radiosurgery (GKRS) treatment can help in determining whether GKRS will be effective on an individual patient basis. However, at present, prognostic factors of tumor control after GKRS for VS are largely unknown, and only clinical factors, such as size of the tumor at treatment and pre-treatment growth rate of the tumor, have been considered thus far. This research aims at outcome prediction of GKRS by means of quantitative texture feature analysis on conventional MRI scans. We compute first-order statistics and features based on gray-level co- occurrence (GLCM) and run-length matrices (RLM), and employ support vector machines and decision trees for classification. In a clinical dataset, consisting of 20 tumors showing treatment failure and 20 tumors exhibiting treatment success, we have discovered that the second-order statistical metrics distilled from GLCM and RLM are suitable for describing texture, but are slightly outperformed by simple first-order statistics, like mean, standard deviation and median. The obtained prediction accuracy is about 85%, but a final choice of the best feature can only be made after performing more extensive analyses on larger datasets. In any case, this work provides suitable texture measures for successful prediction of GKRS treatment outcome for VS.

Airway symptoms and lung function in the local population after the oil tank explosion in Gulen, Norway.

PubMed

Granslo, Jens-Tore; Bråtveit, Magne; Hollund, Bjørg Eli; Irgens, Ågot; Svanes, Cecilie; Magerøy, Nils; Moen, Bente Elisabeth

2012-12-12

Oil tanks containing a mixture of hydrocarbons, including sulphuric compounds, exploded and caught fire in an industrial harbour. This study assesses airway symptoms and lung function in the nearby population 1½ years after the explosion. A cross-sectional study included individuals ≥18 years old. Individuals living <6 km (sub-groups <3km and 3-6 km) from the accident site formed the exposed group, individuals living >20 km away formed a control group. A questionnaire and spirometry tests were completed by 223 exposed individuals (response rate men 70%, women 75%) and 179 control individuals (response rate men 51%, women 65%). Regression analyses included adjustment for smoking, occupational exposure, atopy, infection in the preceding month and age. Analyses of symptoms were also adjusted for stress reactions related to the accident. Exposed individuals experienced significantly more blocked nose (odds ratio 1.7 [95% confidence interval 1.0, 2.8]), rhinorrhoea (1.6 [1.1, 3.3]), nose irritation (3.4 [2.0, 5.9]), sore throat (3.1 [1.8, 5.5]), morning cough (3.5 [2.0, 5.5]), daily cough (2.2 [1.4, 3.7]), cough >3 months a year (2.9 [1.5, 5.3]) and cough with phlegm (1.9 [1.2, 3.1]) than control individuals. A significantly increasing trend was found for nose symptoms and cough, depending on the proximity of home address to explosion site (daily cough, 3-6km 1.8 [1.0, 3.1], <3km 3.0 [1.7, 6.4]). Lung function measurements were significantly lower in the exposed group than in the control group, FEV1 adjusted mean difference -123 mL [95% confidence interval -232, -14]), FEV1% predicted -2.5 [-5.5, 0.5], FVC -173 mL [- 297, -50], FVC% predicted -3.1 [- 5.9, -0.4], and airway obstruction (GOLD II/III). Based on cross sectional analyses, individuals living in an area with air pollution from an oil tank explosion had more airway symptoms and lower lung function than a control group 1½ years after the incident.

The Model Human Processor and the Older Adult: Parameter Estimation and Validation Within a Mobile Phone Task

PubMed Central

Jastrzembski, Tiffany S.; Charness, Neil

2009-01-01

The authors estimate weighted mean values for nine information processing parameters for older adults using the Card, Moran, and Newell (1983) Model Human Processor model. The authors validate a subset of these parameters by modeling two mobile phone tasks using two different phones and comparing model predictions to a sample of younger (N = 20; Mage = 20) and older (N = 20; Mage = 69) adults. Older adult models fit keystroke-level performance at the aggregate grain of analysis extremely well (R = 0.99) and produced equivalent fits to previously validated younger adult models. Critical path analyses highlighted points of poor design as a function of cognitive workload, hardware/software design, and user characteristics. The findings demonstrate that estimated older adult information processing parameters are valid for modeling purposes, can help designers understand age-related performance using existing interfaces, and may support the development of age-sensitive technologies. PMID:18194048

The Model Human Processor and the older adult: parameter estimation and validation within a mobile phone task.

PubMed

Jastrzembski, Tiffany S; Charness, Neil

2007-12-01

The authors estimate weighted mean values for nine information processing parameters for older adults using the Card, Moran, and Newell (1983) Model Human Processor model. The authors validate a subset of these parameters by modeling two mobile phone tasks using two different phones and comparing model predictions to a sample of younger (N = 20; M-sub(age) = 20) and older (N = 20; M-sub(age) = 69) adults. Older adult models fit keystroke-level performance at the aggregate grain of analysis extremely well (R = 0.99) and produced equivalent fits to previously validated younger adult models. Critical path analyses highlighted points of poor design as a function of cognitive workload, hardware/software design, and user characteristics. The findings demonstrate that estimated older adult information processing parameters are valid for modeling purposes, can help designers understand age-related performance using existing interfaces, and may support the development of age-sensitive technologies.

Multivariate analysis of volatile compounds detected by headspace solid-phase microextraction/gas chromatography: A tool for sensory classification of cork stoppers.

PubMed

Prat, Chantal; Besalú, Emili; Bañeras, Lluís; Anticó, Enriqueta

2011-06-15

The volatile fraction of aqueous cork macerates of tainted and non-tainted agglomerate cork stoppers was analysed by headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME)/gas chromatography. Twenty compounds containing terpenoids, aliphatic alcohols, lignin-related compounds and others were selected and analysed in individual corks. Cork stoppers were previously classified in six different classes according to sensory descriptions including, 2,4,6-trichloroanisole taint and other frequent, non-characteristic odours found in cork. A multivariate analysis of the chromatographic data of 20 selected chemical compounds using linear discriminant analysis models helped in the differentiation of the a priori made groups. The discriminant model selected five compounds as the best combination. Selected compounds appear in the model in the following order; 2,4,6 TCA, fenchyl alcohol, 1-octen-3-ol, benzyl alcohol and benzothiazole. Unfortunately, not all six a priori differentiated sensory classes were clearly discriminated in the model, probably indicating that no measurable differences exist in the chromatographic data for some categories. The predictive analyses of a refined model in which two sensory classes were fused together resulted in a good classification. Prediction rates of control (non-tainted), TCA, musty-earthy-vegetative, vegetative and chemical descriptions were 100%, 100%, 85%, 67.3% and 100%, respectively, when the modified model was used. The multivariate analysis of chromatographic data will help in the classification of stoppers and provide a perfect complement to sensory analyses. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors for seizure outcome in patients with MRI-negative temporal lobe epilepsy: A meta-analysis and systematic review.

PubMed

Wang, Xiu; Zhang, Chao; Wang, Yao; Hu, Wenhan; Shao, Xiaoqiu; Zhang, Jian-Guo; Zhang, Kai

2016-05-01

To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify predictors of postoperative seizure freedom in patients with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-negative temporal lobe epilepsy. Publications were screened from electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE), epilepsy archives, and bibliographies of relevant articles that were written in English. We recorded all possible risk factors that might predict seizure outcome after surgery. We calculated odds ratio (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of predictors for postoperative seizure freedom. Heterogeneity was assessed with I(2). All meta-analyses were performed using Review Manager. Epilepsy duration (OR=2.57, 95% CI=1.21-5.47, p<0.05, I(2)=1%) and ictal or interictal electroencephalographic anomalies precisely localized in the ipsilateral temporal lobe (OR=3.89, 95% CI=1.66-9.08, p<0.01, I(2)=0 and OR=3.38, 95% CI=1.57-7.25, p<0.05, I(2)=0, respectively) were significantly associated with a higher rate of seizure freedom after surgery. However, the positron emission tomography (PET) results were not predictive of postoperative seizure freedom (OR=2.11, 95% CI=0.95-4.65, p=0.06, I(2)=0). No significant difference in seizure freedom was observed between the positive and negative pathology groups (OR=1.36, 95% CI=0.70-2.63, p=0.36, I(2)=0). A shorter epilepsy duration and scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) signals localized precisely in the temporal lobe predicted a better seizure outcome in patients with MRI-negative temporal lobe epilepsy. Copyright © 2016 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Which factors predict the time spent answering queries to a drug information centre?

PubMed Central

Reppe, Linda A.; Spigset, Olav

2010-01-01

Objective To develop a model based upon factors able to predict the time spent answering drug-related queries to Norwegian drug information centres (DICs). Setting and method Drug-related queries received at 5 DICs in Norway from March to May 2007 were randomly assigned to 20 employees until each of them had answered a minimum of five queries. The employees reported the number of drugs involved, the type of literature search performed, and whether the queries were considered judgmental or not, using a specifically developed scoring system. Main outcome measures The scores of these three factors were added together to define a workload score for each query. Workload and its individual factors were subsequently related to the measured time spent answering the queries by simple or multiple linear regression analyses. Results Ninety-six query/answer pairs were analyzed. Workload significantly predicted the time spent answering the queries (adjusted R2 = 0.22, P < 0.001). Literature search was the individual factor best predicting the time spent answering the queries (adjusted R2 = 0.17, P < 0.001), and this variable also contributed the most in the multiple regression analyses. Conclusion The most important workload factor predicting the time spent handling the queries in this study was the type of literature search that had to be performed. The categorisation of queries as judgmental or not, also affected the time spent answering the queries. The number of drugs involved did not significantly influence the time spent answering drug information queries. PMID:20922480

A case study of GWE satellite data impact on GLA assimilation analyses of two ocean cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallimore, R. G.; Johnson, D. R.

1986-01-01

The effects of the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) data obtained on January 18-20, 1979 on Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres assimilation analyses of simultaneous cyclones in the western Pacific and Atlantic oceans are examined. The ability of satellite data within assimilation models to determine the baroclinic structures of developing extratropical cyclones is evaluated. The impact of the satellite data on the amplitude and phase of the temperature structure within the storm domain, potential energy, and baroclinic growth rate is studied. The GWE data are compared with Data Systems Test results. It is noted that it is necessary to characterize satellite effects on the baroclinic structure of cyclone waves which degrade numerical weather predictions of cyclogenesis.

Prediction and repeatability of milk coagulation properties and curd-firming modeling parameters of ovine milk using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and Bayesian models.

PubMed

Ferragina, A; Cipolat-Gotet, C; Cecchinato, A; Pazzola, M; Dettori, M L; Vacca, G M; Bittante, G

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to apply Bayesian models to the Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy spectra of individual sheep milk samples to derive calibration equations to predict traditional and modeled milk coagulation properties (MCP), and to assess the repeatability of MCP measures and their predictions. Data consisted of 1,002 individual milk samples collected from Sarda ewes reared in 22 farms in the region of Sardinia (Italy) for which MCP and modeled curd-firming parameters were available. Two milk samples were taken from 87 ewes and analyzed with the aim of estimating repeatability, whereas a single sample was taken from the other 915 ewes. Therefore, a total of 1,089 analyses were performed. For each sample, 2 spectra in the infrared region 5,011 to 925 cm -1 were available and averaged before data analysis. BayesB models were used to calibrate equations for each of the traits. Prediction accuracy was estimated for each trait and model using 20 replicates of a training-testing validation procedure. The repeatability of MCP measures and their predictions were also compared. The correlations between measured and predicted traits, in the external validation, were always higher than 0.5 (0.88 for rennet coagulation time). We confirmed that the most important element for finding the prediction accuracy is the repeatability of the gold standard analyses used for building calibration equations. Repeatability measures of the predicted traits were generally high (≥95%), even for those traits with moderate analytical repeatability. Our results show that Bayesian models applied to Fourier-transform infrared spectra are powerful tools for cheap and rapid prediction of important traits in ovine milk and, compared with other methods, could help in the interpretation of results. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Drinking Status Between Ages 50 and 55 for Men From the San Diego Prospective Study Who Developed DSM-IV Alcohol Abuse or Dependence in Prior Follow-Ups.

PubMed

Gonçalves, Priscila Dib; Schuckit, Marc A; Smith, Tom L

2017-07-01

Although alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are prevalent among older individuals, few studies have examined the course and predictors of AUDs from their onset into the person's 50s. This study describes the AUD course from ages 50 to 55 in participants who developed AUDs according to criteria from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV), during the San Diego Prospective Study (SDPS). Among the 397 university students in the SDPS who were followed about every 5 years from age 20 (before AUD onset), 165 developed AUDs, 156 of whom were interviewed at age 55. Age 50-55 outcomes were compared regarding age 20-50 characteristics. Variables that differed significantly across outcome groups were evaluated using binary logistic regression analyses predicting each outcome type. Between ages 50 and 55, 16% had low-risk drinking, 36% had high-risk drinking, 38% met DSM-5 AUD criteria, and 10% were abstinent. Baseline predictors of outcome at ages 50-55 included earlier low levels of response to alcohol predicting DSM-5 AUDs and abstinence, higher drinking frequency predicting DSM-5 diagnoses and lower predicting low-risk drinking, higher participation in treatment and/or self-help groups predicting abstinence and lower predicting DSM-5 AUDs, later ages of AUD onset predicting high-risk drinking, and cannabis use disorders predicting abstinent outcomes. Despite the high functioning of these men, few were abstinent or maintained low-risk drinking during the recent 5 years, and 38% met DSM-5 AUD criteria. The data may be helpful to both clinicians and researchers predicting the future course of AUDs in their older patients and research participants.

Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients

PubMed Central

Coid, Jeremy W.; Kallis, Constantinos; Doyle, Mike; Shaw, Jenny; Ullrich, Simone

2015-01-01

Background Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments. Methods We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Historical, Clinical and Risk-20 items version 3 (HCR-20v3) and Structural Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF). Information on violence was obtained via the McArthur community violence instrument and the Police National Computer. Results In a lagged model, HCR-20v3 and SAPROF items were poor predictors of violence. Eight items of the HCR-20v3 and 4 SAPROF items did not predict violent behaviour better than chance. In re-analyses considering temporal proximity of risk/ protective factors (exposure) on violence (outcome), risk was elevated due to violent ideation (OR 6.98, 95% CI 13.85–12.65, P<0.001), instability (OR 5.41, 95% CI 3.44–8.50, P<0.001), and poor coping/ stress (OR 8.35, 95% CI 4.21–16.57, P<0.001). All 3 risk factors were explanatory variables which drove the association with violent outcome. Self-control (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08–0.24, P<0.001) conveyed protective effects and explained the association of other protective factors with violence. Conclusions Using two standardised SPJ instruments, predictive (lagged) methods could not identify risk and protective factors which must be targeted in interventions for discharged patients with severe mental illness. Predictive methods should be abandoned if the aim is to progress from risk assessment to effective risk management and replaced by methods which identify factors causally associated with violence. PMID:26554711

Optimal BMI Cut-off Points for Prediction of Incident Diabetes in Chinese population.

PubMed

Ma, Hao; Wu, Xiaoyan; Guo, Xiaoyu; Yang, Jianjun; Ma, Xiaohui; Lv, Mengfan; Li, Ying

2018-05-26

The current BMI classifications have been established based on risk of obesity-related conditions, but not specifically on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to identify the optimal BMI cutoffs for assessing incident T2DM risk in Chinese population. The longitudinal study cohort consisted of 8,735 non-diabetic participants aged 20-74 years at baseline, with a mean follow-up period of 6.0 years. Body mass index (BMI), 2-h glucose of 75-g oral glucose tolerance test, and glycosylated hemoglobin were measured at baseline and follow-up survey. During the follow-up period, 825 participants were diagnosed with T2DM. In multivariable Cox regression analyses, adjusting for covariates, a strong positive association between BMI and incident T2DM was found among whole population, when stratified by age groups (20-39 years, 40-59 years, 60-74 years), the risk associations between BMI and incident T2DM decreased with increasing age-specific groups, and extinguished in the 60-74 age group (P-value of interaction<0.001). The optimal BMI cut-offs (kg/m 2 ) for predicting T2DM risk for men and women were 25.5 and 24.4 in the 20-39 age group, and 23.5 and 23.0 in the 40-59 age group, respectively. But no predictive performance was observed in the 60-74 age group in both sexes. Our results suggested that the performance of BMI in predicting T2DM risk was the best in younger age and decreased with age. Age- and sex-specific BMI cut-offs should be considered for T2DM risk stratification in Chinese population. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Eveningness among late adolescent males predicts neural reactivity to reward and alcohol dependence two years later

PubMed Central

Hasler, Brant P.; Casement, Melynda D.; Sitnick, Stephanie L.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Forbes, Erika E.

2017-01-01

Eveningness, a preference for later sleep-wake timing, is linked to altered reward function, which may explain a consistent association with substance abuse. Notably, the extant literature rests largely on cross-sectional data, yet both eveningness and reward function show developmental changes. We examined whether circadian preference during late adolescence predicted the neural response to reward two years later. A sample of 93 males reported circadian preference and completed a monetary reward fMRI paradigm at ages 20 and 22. Primary analyses examined longitudinal paths from circadian preference to medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and ventral striatal (VS) reward responses. We also explored whether reward responses mediated longitudinal associations between circadian preference and alcohol dependence, frequency of alcohol use, and/or frequency of cannabis use. Age 20 eveningness was positively associated with age 22 mPFC and VS responses to win, but not associated with age 22 reactivity to reward anticipation. Age 20 eveningness was indirectly related to age 22 alcohol dependence via age 22 mPFC response to win. Our findings provide novel evidence that altered reward-related brain function could underlie associations between eveningness and alcohol use problems. Eveningness may be an under-recognized but modifiable risk factor for reward-related problems such as mood and substance use disorders. PMID:28254633

Factors predicting labor induction success: a critical analysis.

PubMed

Crane, Joan M G

2006-09-01

Because of the risk of failed induction of labor, a variety of maternal and fetal factors as well as screening tests have been suggested to predict labor induction success. Certain characteristics of the woman (including parity, age, weight, height and body mass index), and of the fetus (including birth weight and gestational age) are associated with the success of labor induction; with parous, young women who are taller and lower weight having a higher rate of induction success. Fetuses with a lower birth weight or increased gestational age are also associated with increased induction success. The condition of the cervix at the start of induction is an important predictor, with the modified Bishop score being a widely used scoring system. The most important element of the Bishop score is dilatation. Other predictors, including transvaginal ultrasound (TVUS) and biochemical markers [including fetal fibronectin (fFN)] have been suggested. Meta-analyses of studies identified from MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE and published from 1990 to October 2005 were performed evaluating the use of TVUS and fFN in predicting labor induction success in women at term with singleton gestations. Both TVUS and Bishop score predicted successful induction [likelihood ratio (LR)=1.82, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.51-2.20 and LR=2.10, 95%CI=1.67-2.64, respectively]. As well, fFN and Bishop score predicted successful induction (LR=1.49, 95%CI=1.20-1.85, and LR=2.62, 95%CI=1.88-3.64, respectively). Although TVUS and fFN predicted successful labor induction, neither has been shown to be superior to Bishop score. Further research is needed to evaluate these potential predictors and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), another potential biochemical marker.

Comparative dynamics of avian communities across edges and interiors of North American ecoregions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Hines, J.E.

2006-01-01

Aim Based on a priori hypotheses, we developed predictions about how avian communities might differ at the edges vs. interiors of ecoregions. Specifically, we predicted lower species richness and greater local turnover and extinction probabilities for regional edges. We tested these predictions using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data across nine ecoregions over a 20-year time period. Location Data from 2238 BBS routes within nine ecoregions of the United States were used. Methods The estimation methods used accounted for species detection probabilities < 1. Parameter estimates for species richness, local turnover and extinction probabilities were obtained using the program COMDYN. We examined the difference in community-level parameters estimated from within exterior edges (the habitat interface between ecoregions), interior edges (the habitat interface between two bird conservation regions within the same ecoregion) and interior (habitat excluding interfaces). General linear models were constructed to examine sources of variation in community parameters for five ecoregions (containing all three habitat types) and all nine ecoregions (containing two habitat types). Results Analyses provided evidence that interior habitats and interior edges had on average higher bird species richness than exterior edges, providing some evidence of reduced species richness near habitat edges. Lower average extinction probabilities and turnover rates in interior habitats (five-region analysis) provided some support for our predictions about these quantities. However, analyses directed at all three response variables, i.e. species richness, local turnover, and local extinction probability, provided evidence of an interaction between habitat and region, indicating that the relationships did not hold in all regions. Main conclusions The overall predictions of lower species richness, higher local turnover and extinction probabilities in regional edge habitats, as opposed to interior habitats, were generally supported. However, these predicted tendencies did not hold in all regions.

@TOME-2: a new pipeline for comparative modeling of protein-ligand complexes.

PubMed

Pons, Jean-Luc; Labesse, Gilles

2009-07-01

@TOME 2.0 is new web pipeline dedicated to protein structure modeling and small ligand docking based on comparative analyses. @TOME 2.0 allows fold recognition, template selection, structural alignment editing, structure comparisons, 3D-model building and evaluation. These tasks are routinely used in sequence analyses for structure prediction. In our pipeline the necessary software is efficiently interconnected in an original manner to accelerate all the processes. Furthermore, we have also connected comparative docking of small ligands that is performed using protein-protein superposition. The input is a simple protein sequence in one-letter code with no comment. The resulting 3D model, protein-ligand complexes and structural alignments can be visualized through dedicated Web interfaces or can be downloaded for further studies. These original features will aid in the functional annotation of proteins and the selection of templates for molecular modeling and virtual screening. Several examples are described to highlight some of the new functionalities provided by this pipeline. The server and its documentation are freely available at http://abcis.cbs.cnrs.fr/AT2/

@TOME-2: a new pipeline for comparative modeling of protein–ligand complexes

PubMed Central

Pons, Jean-Luc; Labesse, Gilles

2009-01-01

@TOME 2.0 is new web pipeline dedicated to protein structure modeling and small ligand docking based on comparative analyses. @TOME 2.0 allows fold recognition, template selection, structural alignment editing, structure comparisons, 3D-model building and evaluation. These tasks are routinely used in sequence analyses for structure prediction. In our pipeline the necessary software is efficiently interconnected in an original manner to accelerate all the processes. Furthermore, we have also connected comparative docking of small ligands that is performed using protein–protein superposition. The input is a simple protein sequence in one-letter code with no comment. The resulting 3D model, protein–ligand complexes and structural alignments can be visualized through dedicated Web interfaces or can be downloaded for further studies. These original features will aid in the functional annotation of proteins and the selection of templates for molecular modeling and virtual screening. Several examples are described to highlight some of the new functionalities provided by this pipeline. The server and its documentation are freely available at http://abcis.cbs.cnrs.fr/AT2/ PMID:19443448

A Survival Analysis of Adolescent Friendships: The Downside of Dissimilarity

PubMed Central

Hartl, Amy C.; Laursen, Brett; Cillessen, Antonius H. N.

2015-01-01

The present study examined whether adolescent friendships dissolve because of characteristics of friends, differences between friends, or both. Participants included 410 adolescents (201 boys, 209 girls) who reported a total of 573 reciprocated friendships that originated in the 7th grade (M age = 13.20 years). Discrete-time survival analyses were conducted in which peer nominations and teacher ratings collected in Grade 7 predicted the occurrence and timing of friendship dissolution across grades 8 to 12. Grade 7 individual characteristics were unrelated to friendship stability, but Grade 7 differences in sex, peer acceptance, physical aggression, and school competence predicted subsequent friendship dissolution. The findings suggest that compatibility is a function of similarity between friends rather than the presence or absence of a particular trait. PMID:26187246

Work–Family Conflict, Task Interruptions, and Influence at Work Predict Musculoskeletal Pain in Operating Room Nurses

PubMed Central

Nützi, Marina; Koch, Patricia; Baur, Heiner; Elfering, Achim

2015-01-01

Background The aim of this study is to examine the prevalence of musculoskeletal complaints in Swiss operating room (OR) nurses, and to investigate how work–family conflict, work interruptions, and influence at work are related to lumbar and cervical back pain. Methods Participants in this correlational questionnaire study included 116 OR nurses from eight different hospitals in Switzerland. Results We found that 66% of the OR staff suffered from musculoskeletal problems. The most prevalent musculoskeletal complaints were lumbar (52.7%) and cervical pain (38.4%). Furthermore, 20.5% reported pain in the mid spine region, 20.5% in the knees and legs, and 9.8% in the hands and feet. Multiple linear regression analyses showed that work–family conflict (p < 0.05) and interruptions (p < 0.05) significantly predicted lumbar and cervical pain in OR nurses, while influence at work (p < 0.05) only predicted lumbar pain. Conclusion These results suggest that reducing the work–family conflict and interruptions at work, as well as offering opportunities to influence one's workplace, help to promote OR nurses' health. PMID:26929846

Circulating asymmetric dimethylarginine and the risk of preeclampsia: a meta-analysis based on 1338 participants.

PubMed

Yuan, Jing; Wang, Xinguo; Xie, Yudou; Wang, Yuzhi; Dong, Lei; Li, Hong; Zhu, Tongyu

2017-07-04

Patients with preeclampsia have higher circulating asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA). However, whether circulating ADMA is elevated before the diagnosis of preeclampsia has not been determined. A meta-analysis of observational studies that reported circulating ADMA level before the onset of preeclampsia was performed. Pubmed and Embase were searched. Standardized mean differences (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to estimate the differences in circulating ADMA. A random effect model or a fixed effect model was applied depending on the heterogeneity. The predictive efficacy of circulating ADMA for the incidence of preeclampsia was also explored. Eleven comparisons with 1338 pregnant women were included. The pooled results showed that the circulating ADMA was significantly higher in women who subsequently developed preeclampsia as compared with those did not (SMD: 0.71, p < 0.001) with a moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 43%). Stratified analyses suggested elevation of circulating ADMA is more remarkable in studies with GA of ADMA sampling ≥ 20 weeks (SMD: 0.89, p < 0.01) as compared those with GA of ADMA sampling < 20 weeks (SMD: 0.56, p < 0.01; p for subgroup interaction = 0.03). Differences of maternal age, study design, and ADMA measurement methods did not significantly affect the results. Only two studies evaluated the potential predicting ability of circulating ADMA for subsequent preeclampsia, and retrieved moderate predictive efficacy. Circulating ADMA is elevated before the development of preeclampsia. Studies are needed to evaluate the predictive efficacy of ADMA for the incidence of preeclampsia.

Safety, efficacy, predictability and stability of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) with a 1000-Hz scanning spot excimer laser.

PubMed

Khoramnia, Ramin; Salgado, Josefina P; Wuellner, Christian; Donitzky, Christof; Lohmann, Chris P; Winkler von Mohrenfels, Christoph

2012-09-01

To evaluate the safety, efficacy, predictability and stability of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) with a 1000-Hz scanning spot excimer laser (Concept System 1000; WaveLight GmbH, Erlangen, Germany). LASIK was performed on twenty eyes with myopia or myopic astigmatism (mean spherical equivalent refraction: -3.97±1.72 dioptres (D); mean cylinder: -0.84±0.77 D) using a microkeratome for flap creation and the Concept System 1000 for photoablation. Patients were examined preoperatively as well as 1, 3 and 6 months after the treatment. Manifest sphere and cylinder, uncorrected (UCDVA) and best corrected (BCDVA) distance visual acuity, corneal topography and pachymetry were analysed. We observed no adverse events that might have been associated with the use of a repetition rate of 1000 Hz. All eyes maintained or had improved BCDVA at 6 months after treatment when compared to preoperative values. Six months after LASIK, UCDVA was 20/20 or better in 85% and 20/25 or better in 100% of the eyes. The spherical equivalent refraction was within ±0.50 D in 95% of the eyes at 6 months after surgery. The refraction stayed stable over time; 95% of the eyes changed<0.5 D postoperatively. LASIK with the prototype 1000-Hz excimer laser was safe, efficient and predictable. The postoperative refraction was stable over time. There were no specific clinical side-effects that might be associated with the use of such a high repetition rate. © 2011 The Authors. Acta Ophthalmologica © 2011 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation.

Comparison of Puff Volume With Cigarettes per Day in Predicting Nicotine Uptake Among Daily Smokers.

PubMed

Krebs, Nicolle M; Chen, Allshine; Zhu, Junjia; Sun, Dongxiao; Liao, Jason; Stennett, Andrea L; Muscat, Joshua E

2016-07-01

The role of inhalation behaviors as predictors of nicotine uptake was examined in the Pennsylvania Adult Smoking Study (2012-2014), a study of 332 adults whose cigarette smoking was measured in a naturalistic environment (e.g., at home) with portable handheld topography devices. Piecewise regression analyses showed that levels of salivary cotinine, trans-3'-hydroxycotinine, and total salivary nicotine metabolites (cotinine + trans-3'-hydroxycotinine) increased linearly up to a level of about 1 pack per day (20 cigarettes per day (CPD)) (P < 0.01). Total daily puff volume (TDPV; in mL) (P < 0.05) and total daily number of puffs (P < 0.05), but not other topographical measures, increased linearly with CPD up to a level of about 1 pack per day. The mean level of cotinine per cigarette did not change above 20 CPD and was 36% lower in heavy smokers (≥20 CPD) than in lighter smokers (<20 CPD) (15.6 ng/mL vs. 24.5 ng/mL, respectively; P < 0.01). Mediation models showed that TDPV accounted for 43%-63% of the association between CPD and nicotine metabolites for smokers of <20 CPD. TDPV was the best predictor of nicotine metabolite levels in light-to-moderate smokers (1-19 CPD). In contrast, neither CPD, total daily number of puffs, nor TDPV predicted nicotine metabolite levels above 20 CPD (up to 40 CPD). Finally, although light smokers are traditionally considered less dependent on nicotine, these findings suggest that they are exposed to more nicotine per cigarette than are heavy smokers due to more frequent, intensive puffing. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of Puff Volume With Cigarettes per Day in Predicting Nicotine Uptake Among Daily Smokers

PubMed Central

Krebs, Nicolle M.; Chen, Allshine; Zhu, Junjia; Sun, Dongxiao; Liao, Jason; Stennett, Andrea L.; Muscat, Joshua E.

2016-01-01

Abstract The role of inhalation behaviors as predictors of nicotine uptake was examined in the Pennsylvania Adult Smoking Study (2012–2014), a study of 332 adults whose cigarette smoking was measured in a naturalistic environment (e.g., at home) with portable handheld topography devices. Piecewise regression analyses showed that levels of salivary cotinine, trans-3′-hydroxycotinine, and total salivary nicotine metabolites (cotinine + trans-3′-hydroxycotinine) increased linearly up to a level of about 1 pack per day (20 cigarettes per day (CPD)) (P < 0.01). Total daily puff volume (TDPV; in mL) (P < 0.05) and total daily number of puffs (P < 0.05), but not other topographical measures, increased linearly with CPD up to a level of about 1 pack per day. The mean level of cotinine per cigarette did not change above 20 CPD and was 36% lower in heavy smokers (≥20 CPD) than in lighter smokers (<20 CPD) (15.6 ng/mL vs. 24.5 ng/mL, respectively; P < 0.01). Mediation models showed that TDPV accounted for 43%–63% of the association between CPD and nicotine metabolites for smokers of <20 CPD. TDPV was the best predictor of nicotine metabolite levels in light-to-moderate smokers (1–19 CPD). In contrast, neither CPD, total daily number of puffs, nor TDPV predicted nicotine metabolite levels above 20 CPD (up to 40 CPD). Finally, although light smokers are traditionally considered less dependent on nicotine, these findings suggest that they are exposed to more nicotine per cigarette than are heavy smokers due to more frequent, intensive puffing. PMID:27313218

Body-density measurement in children: the BOD POD versus Hydrodensitometry.

PubMed

Holmes, Jason C; Gibson, Ann L; Cremades, J Gualberto; Mier, Constance M

2011-06-01

To compare estimates of body density (Db) from air-displacement plethysmography (ADP) with measured and predicted thoracic-gas-volume (TGV) measurements and those from hydrodensitometry (HD) in children. Seventeen participants (13 male and 4 female; 10.1 ± 2.20 yr, 42.0 ± 15.03 kg, 145.6 ± 17.41 cm, 30.0 ± 8.66 kg/m²) were tested using ADP and HD, with ADP always preceding HD. Db estimates were compared between ADP with measured TGV, ADP with predicted TGV, and the reference measure, HD. Regression analyses were used to assess the accuracy of the ADP methods, and potential bias between the ADP procedures and HD were evaluated using Bland-Altman analyses. The cross-validation criteria described by Lohman for estimating Db relative to HD were used to interpret the results of the study. A significant difference was found between Db estimates from ADP with measured TGV (1.0453 ± 0.01934 g/cm³) and ADP with predicted TGV (1.0415 ± 0.01858 g/cm³); however, neither was significantly different from Db obtained by the reference HD procedure (1.0417 ± 0.02391 g/cm³). For both ADP procedures, regression analyses produced an r = .737-.738, r² = .543-.544, and SEE = 0.02 g/cm³, and the regression lines deviated significantly from the line of identity; however, no significant biases were indicated. Despite no significant mean differences between Db estimates from the ADP procedures and HD, more cross-validation research is needed before recommending the BOD POD for routine use with children in clinical and research settings.

Comparative analysis of the 1-mile run test evaluation formulae: assessment of aerobic capacity in male law enforcement officers aged 20-23 years.

PubMed

Kayihan, Gürhan; Özkan, Ali; Köklü, Yusuf; Eyuboğlu, Ender; Akça, Firat; Koz, Mitat; Ersöz, Gülfem

2014-04-01

The purpose of this study was to compare values of aerobic performance in the 1-mile run test (1-MRT) using different formulae. Aerobic capacities of 351 male volunteers working for the Turkish National Police within the age range of 20-23 years were evaluated by the 1-MRT and the 20-metre shuttle run (20-MST). VO2max values were estimated by the prediction equations developed by George et al. (1993), Cureton et al. (1995) and Kline et al. (1987) for the 1-MRT and by Leger and Lambert (1982) for the 20-MST. The difference between the results of the different formulae was significant (p = 0.000). The correlation coefficient between the estimated VO2max using Cureton's equation, George's equation, Kline's equation and the 20-MST were 0.691 (p < 0.001), 0.486 (p < 0.001) and 0.608 (p < 0.001), respectively. The highest correlation coefficient was between the VO2max estimated by the 20-MST and Cureton's equation. Similarly, the highest correlation coefficient (r = -0.779) was between the 1-mile run time and the VO2max estimated by Cureton's equation. When analysing more vigorous exercise than sub-maximal exercise, we suggest that Cureton's equation be used to predict the VO2max from 1-mile run/walk performance in large numbers of healthy individuals with high VO2max. This research compares the use of 3 different formulae to estimate VO2max from 1-mile run/walk performance in male law enforcement officers aged 20-23 years for the first time and reports the most accurate formula to use when evaluating aerobic capacities of large numbers of healthy individuals.

Dancing with the Muses: dissociation and flow.

PubMed

Thomson, Paula; Jaque, S Victoria

2012-01-01

This study investigated dissociative psychological processes and flow (dispositional and state) in a group of professional and pre-professional dancers (n=74). In this study, high scores for global (Mdn=4.14) and autotelic (Mdn=4.50) flow suggest that dancing was inherently integrating and rewarding, although 17.6% of the dancers were identified as possibly having clinical levels of dissociation (Dissociative Experiences Scale-Taxon cutoff score≥20). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance indicated that subjects with high levels of dissociation had significantly lower levels of global flow (p<.05). Stepwise linear regression analyses demonstrated that dispositional flow negatively predicted the dissociative constructs of depersonalization and taxon (p<.05) but did not significantly predict the variance in absorption/imagination (p>.05). As hypothesized, dissociation and flow seem to operate as different mental processes.

Validity of Treadmill-Derived Critical Speed on Predicting 5000-Meter Track-Running Performance.

PubMed

Nimmerichter, Alfred; Novak, Nina; Triska, Christoph; Prinz, Bernhard; Breese, Brynmor C

2017-03-01

Nimmerichter, A, Novak, N, Triska, C, Prinz, B, and Breese, BC. Validity of treadmill-derived critical speed on predicting 5,000-meter track-running performance. J Strength Cond Res 31(3): 706-714, 2017-To evaluate 3 models of critical speed (CS) for the prediction of 5,000-m running performance, 16 trained athletes completed an incremental test on a treadmill to determine maximal aerobic speed (MAS) and 3 randomly ordered runs to exhaustion at the [INCREMENT]70% intensity, at 110% and 98% of MAS. Critical speed and the distance covered above CS (D') were calculated using the hyperbolic speed-time (HYP), the linear distance-time (LIN), and the linear speed inverse-time model (INV). Five thousand meter performance was determined on a 400-m running track. Individual predictions of 5,000-m running time (t = [5,000-D']/CS) and speed (s = D'/t + CS) were calculated across the 3 models in addition to multiple regression analyses. Prediction accuracy was assessed with the standard error of estimate (SEE) from linear regression analysis and the mean difference expressed in units of measurement and coefficient of variation (%). Five thousand meter running performance (speed: 4.29 ± 0.39 m·s; time: 1,176 ± 117 seconds) was significantly better than the predictions from all 3 models (p < 0.0001). The mean difference was 65-105 seconds (5.7-9.4%) for time and -0.22 to -0.34 m·s (-5.0 to -7.5%) for speed. Predictions from multiple regression analyses with CS and D' as predictor variables were not significantly different from actual running performance (-1.0 to 1.1%). The SEE across all models and predictions was approximately 65 seconds or 0.20 m·s and is therefore considered as moderate. The results of this study have shown the importance of aerobic and anaerobic energy system contribution to predict 5,000-m running performance. Using estimates of CS and D' is valuable for predicting performance over race distances of 5,000 m.

Sputnik: a database platform for comparative plant genomics.

PubMed

Rudd, Stephen; Mewes, Hans-Werner; Mayer, Klaus F X

2003-01-01

Two million plant ESTs, from 20 different plant species, and totalling more than one 1000 Mbp of DNA sequence, represents a formidable transcriptomic resource. Sputnik uses the potential of this sequence resource to fill some of the information gap in the un-sequenced plant genomes and to serve as the foundation for in silicio comparative plant genomics. The complexity of the individual EST collections has been reduced using optimised EST clustering techniques. Annotation of cluster sequences is performed by exploiting and transferring information from the comprehensive knowledgebase already produced for the completed model plant genome (Arabidopsis thaliana) and by performing additional state of-the-art sequence analyses relevant to today's plant biologist. Functional predictions, comparative analyses and associative annotations for 500 000 plant EST derived peptides make Sputnik (http://mips.gsf.de/proj/sputnik/) a valid platform for contemporary plant genomics.

Sputnik: a database platform for comparative plant genomics

PubMed Central

Rudd, Stephen; Mewes, Hans-Werner; Mayer, Klaus F.X.

2003-01-01

Two million plant ESTs, from 20 different plant species, and totalling more than one 1000 Mbp of DNA sequence, represents a formidable transcriptomic resource. Sputnik uses the potential of this sequence resource to fill some of the information gap in the un-sequenced plant genomes and to serve as the foundation for in silicio comparative plant genomics. The complexity of the individual EST collections has been reduced using optimised EST clustering techniques. Annotation of cluster sequences is performed by exploiting and transferring information from the comprehensive knowledgebase already produced for the completed model plant genome (Arabidopsis thaliana) and by performing additional state of-the-art sequence analyses relevant to today's plant biologist. Functional predictions, comparative analyses and associative annotations for 500 000 plant EST derived peptides make Sputnik (http://mips.gsf.de/proj/sputnik/) a valid platform for contemporary plant genomics. PMID:12519965

Home Environmental and Behavioral Risk Indices for Reading Achievement.

PubMed

Taylor, Jeanette; Ennis, Chelsea R; Hart, Sara A; Mikolajewski, Amy J; Schatschneider, Christopher

2017-07-01

The goal of this study was to identify home environmental and temperament/behavior variables that best predict standardized reading comprehension scores among school-aged children. Data from 269 children aged 9-16 ( M = 12.08; SD = 1.62) were used in discriminant function analyses to create the Home and Behavior indices. Family income was controlled in each index. The final Home and Behavior models each classified around 75% of cases correctly (reading comprehension at grade level vs. not). Each index was then used to predict other outcomes related to reading. Results showed that Home and/or Behavior accounted for 4-7% of the variance in reading fluency and spelling and 20-35% of the variance in parent-rated problems in math, social anxiety, and other dimensions. These metrics show promise as environmental and temperament/behavior risk scores that could be used to predict and potentially screen for further assessment of reading related problems.

Vision Loss Following Episcleral Brachytherapy for Uveal Melanoma: Development of a Vision Prognostication Tool.

PubMed

Aziz, Hassan A; Singh, Nakul; Bena, James; Wilkinson, Allan; Singh, Arun D

2016-06-01

Vision loss following episcleral brachytherapy for uveal melanoma is difficult to predict for individual patients. To generate a risk calculator for vision loss following episcleral brachytherapy for uveal melanoma. A retrospective review of data was conducted at a multispecialty tertiary care center in Cleveland, Ohio. All patients with primary ciliary body or choroidal melanoma treated with iodine 125 or ruthenium 106 episcleral brachytherapy between January 1, 2004, and December 30, 2013, were included. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards were used to determine the influence of baseline patient factors on vision loss. Kaplan-Meier curves (log-rank analyses) were used to estimate freedom from vision loss. Bootstrap resampling was performed to bias correct this estimate. Vision loss (to visual acuity [VA] worse than 20/50 and worse than 20/200). A total of 311 patients were included in the study, with a mean (SD) age of 62 (14.7) years at start of treatment and a median follow-up of 36 months (interquartile range, 18-60 months). At presentation, VA was better than or equal to 20/50 in 199 patients (64%) and better than or equal to 20/200 in 289 patients (93%). By Kaplan-Meier analysis, VA less than 20/200 at 3 years was not associated with sex, diabetes, systemic hypertension, or hypercholesterolemia but was associated with history of ocular comorbidities, type of isotope (ruthenium 106 or iodine 125), and initial VA ( >20/50 or <20/50). By multivariable analysis, age (hazard ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.94-1.00; P = .06), largest basal diameter (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.16-1.34; P = <.001), total radiation dose to the fovea (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04; P = .001) and optic disc (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.01; P = .005), and initial VA worse than 20/50 (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.20-2.85; P = .005) were predictive of vision loss to a VA of less than 20/200. The concordance index for the full data set was 0.77. Using these data, an online risk calculator was developed to predict vision loss following episcleral brachytherapy. The vision prognostication tool presented herein needs to be validated by independent data sets. This tool may improve counseling for patients being evaluated for episcleral brachytherapy. At-risk individuals identified by this tool could be considered for inclusion into trials exploring prevention or treatment of radiation retinopathy and alternative therapies of uveal melanoma.

Biomarker-based risk prediction in the community.

PubMed

AbouEzzeddine, Omar F; McKie, Paul M; Scott, Christopher G; Rodeheffer, Richard J; Chen, Horng H; Michael Felker, G; Jaffe, Allan S; Burnett, John C; Redfield, Margaret M

2016-11-01

Guided by predictive characteristics of cardiovascular biomarkers, we explored the clinical implications of a simulated biomarker-guided heart failure (HF) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) prevention strategy in the community. In a community cohort (n = 1824), the predictive characteristics for HF and MACE of galectin-3 (Gal-3), ST2, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hscTnI), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) were established. We performed number needed to screen (NNS) and treat (NNT) with the intervention analyses according to biomarker screening strategy and intervention efficacy in persons with at least one cardiovascular risk factor. In the entire cohort, for both HF and MACE, the predictive characteristics of NT-proBNP and hscTnI were superior to other biomarkers; alone, in a multimarker model, and adjusting for clinical risk factors. An NT-proBNP-guided preventative intervention with an intervention effect size (4-year hazard ratio for intervention in biomarker positive cohort) of ≤0.7 would reduce the global burden of HF by ≥20% and MACE by ≥15%. From this simulation, the NNS to prevent one HF event or MACE in 4 years would be ≤100 with a NNT to prevent one HF event of ≤20 and one MACE of ≤10. The predictive characteristics of NT-proBNP and hscTnI for HF or MACE in the community are superior to other biomarkers. Biomarker-guided preventative interventions with reasonable efficacy would compare favourably to established preventative interventions. This data provides a framework for biomarker selection which may inform design of biomarker-guided preventative intervention trials. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2016 European Society of Cardiology.

Liver elastography malignancy prediction score for noninvasive characterization of focal liver lesions.

PubMed

Grgurevic, Ivica; Bokun, Tomislav; Salkic, Nermin N; Brkljacic, Boris; Vukelić-Markovic, Mirjana; Stoos-Veic, Tajana; Aralica, Gorana; Rakic, Mislav; Filipec-Kanizaj, Tajana; Berzigotti, Annalisa

2018-06-01

To analyse elastographic characteristics of focal liver lesions (FLL)s and diagnostic performance of real-time two-dimensional shear-wave elastography (RT-2D-SWE) in order to differentiate benign and malignant FLLs. Consecutive patients diagnosed with FLL by abdominal ultrasound (US) underwent RT-2D-SWE of FLL and non-infiltrated liver by intercostal approach over the right liver lobe. The nature of FLL was determined by diagnostic work-up, including at least one contrast-enhanced imaging modality (MDCT/MRI), check-up of target organs when metastatic disease was suspected and FLL biopsy in inconclusive cases. We analysed 196 patients (median age 60 [range 50-68], 50.5% males) with 259 FLLs (57 hepatocellular carcinomas, 17 cholangiocarcinomas, 94 metastases, 71 haemangiomas, 20 focal nodular hyperplasia) of which 70 (27%) were in cirrhotic liver. Malignant lesions were stiffer (P < .001) with higher variability in intralesional stiffness (P = .001). The best performing cut-off of lesion stiffness was 22.3 kPa (sensitivity 83%; specificity 86%; positive predictive value [PPV] 91.5%; negative predictive value [NPV] 73%) for malignancy. Lesion stiffness <14 kPa had NPV of 96%, while values >32.5 kPa had PPV of 96% for malignancy. Lesion stiffness, lesion/liver stiffness ratio and lesion stiffness variability significantly predicted malignancy in stepwise logistic regression (P < .05), and were used to construct a new Liver Elastography Malignancy Prediction (LEMP) score with accuracy of 96.1% in validation cohort (online calculator available at http://bit.do/lemps). The comprehensive approach demonstrated in this study enables correct differentiation of benign and malignant FLL in 96% of patients by using RT-2D-SWE. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Anorexia nervosa, depression and suicidal thoughts among Chinese adolescents: a national school-based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Lian, Qiguo; Zuo, Xiayun; Mao, Yanyan; Luo, Shan; Zhang, Shucheng; Tu, Xiaowen; Lou, Chaohua; Zhou, Weijin

2017-04-04

Although there is much literature on adolescent suicide, combined effects of depression and anorexia nervosa on suicide were rarely investigated. The aims of this study are to examine the association between anorexia nervosa and suicidal thoughts and explore the interaction between anorexia nervosa and depression. This is a cross-sectional study, in the study, a sample of 8,746 Chinese adolescents was selected by multistage stratified method in 2012/2013 from 20 middle schools in 7 provinces across China Mainland. Multilevel logistic model was introduced to explore association between anorexia nervosa and suicidal thoughts. And subgroup analyses were conducted on participants with or without depression. Multilevel logistic model revealed that demographic variables, including academic achievement, were not the predictive risk factors of suicidal thoughts. Those who suffered from worse severity of perceived anorexia nervosa were at increased risk of thinking about suicide. The interaction between depression and anorexia nervosa was significant, however, subgroup analyses showed that the associations were significant only among the adolescents without depression. Our results indicate that all levels of anorexia nervosa serve as predictable indicators of suicidal thoughts in Chinese adolescents, and the effects of anorexia nervosa are modified by depression status.

Parental practices and willingness to ask for children's help later in life.

PubMed

Schooler, Carmi; Revell, Andrew J; Caplan, Leslie J

2007-05-01

We examine how parents' relationships with their 13- to 25-year-old offspring affect the parents' willingness to ask them for help with financial and personal problems 20 years later. Husbands and wives were interviewed in 1974 and 1994; a child was interviewed in 1974. We used two aspects of parental style, responsiveness and restrictive dominance, to predict parents' willingness to request help from a child 20 years later. Structural equation modeling analyses revealed the following: (a) mothers' willingness to ask an adult child for help with a personal problem was increased by higher levels of responsiveness; (b) mothers' willingness to ask for financial help was increased by responsive and decreased by restrictive-dominant maternal behavior; and (c) neither responsive nor restrictive-dominant paternal behavior affected fathers' later willingness to ask an adult child for help of either kind.

Prediction of CP and starch concentrations in ruminal in situ studies and ruminal degradation of cereal grains using NIRS.

PubMed

Krieg, J; Koenzen, E; Seifried, N; Steingass, H; Schenkel, H; Rodehutscord, M

2018-03-01

Ruminal in situ incubations are widely used to assess the nutritional value of feedstuffs for ruminants. In in situ methods, feed samples are ruminally incubated in indigestible bags over a predefined timespan and the disappearance of nutrients from the bags is recorded. To describe the degradation of specific nutrients, information on the concentration of feed samples and undegraded feed after in situ incubation ('bag residues') is needed. For cereal and pea grains, CP and starch (ST) analyses are of interest. The numerous analyses of residues following ruminal incubation contribute greatly to the substantial investments in labour and money, and faster methods would be beneficial. Therefore, calibrations were developed to estimate CP and ST concentrations in grains and bag residues following in situ incubations by using their near-infrared spectra recorded from 680 to 2500 nm. The samples comprised rye, triticale, barley, wheat, and maize grains (20 genotypes each), and 15 durum wheat and 13 pea grains. In addition, residues after ruminal incubation were included (at least from four samples per species for various incubation times). To establish CP and ST calibrations, 620 and 610 samples (grains and bag residues after incubation, respectively) were chemically analysed for their CP and ST concentration. Calibrations using wavelengths from 1250 to 2450 nm and the first derivative of the spectra produced the best results (R 2 Validation=0.99 for CP and ST; standard error of prediction=0.47 and 2.10% DM for CP and ST, respectively). Hence, CP and ST concentration in cereal grains and peas and their bag residues could be predicted with high precision by NIRS for use in in situ studies. No differences were found between the effective ruminal degradation calculated from NIRS estimations and those calculated from chemical analyses (P>0.70). Calibrations were also calculated to predict ruminal degradation kinetics of cereal grains from the spectra of ground grains. Estimation of the effective ruminal degradation of CP and ST from the near-infrared spectra of cereal grains showed promising results (R 2>0.90), but the database needs to be extended to obtain more stable calibrations for routine use.

Mechanical characterization and structural analysis of recycled fiber-reinforced-polymer resin-transfer-molded beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Eugene Wie Loon

1999-09-01

The present investigation was focussed on the mechanical characterization and structural analysis of resin-transfer-molded beams containing recycled fiber-reinforced polymers. The beams were structurally reinforced with continuous unidirectional glass fibers. The reinforcing filler materials consisted entirely of recycled fiber-reinforced polymer wastes (trim and overspray). The principal resin was a 100-percent dicyclo-pentadiene unsaturated polyester specially formulated with very low viscosity for resin transfer molding. Variations of the resin transfer molding technique were employed to produce specimens for material characterization. The basic materials that constituted the structural beams, continuous-glass-fiber-reinforced, recycled-trim-filled and recycled-overspray-filled unsaturated polyesters, were fully characterized in axial and transverse compression and tension, and inplane and interlaminar shear, to ascertain their strengths, ultimate strains, elastic moduli and Poisson's ratios. Experimentally determined mechanical properties of the recycled-trim-filled and recycled-overspray-filled materials from the present investigation were superior to those of unsaturated polyester polymer concretes and Portland cement concretes. Mechanical testing and finite element analyses of flexure (1 x 1 x 20 in) and beam (2 x 4 x 40 in) specimens were conducted. These structurally-reinforced specimens were tested and analyzed in four-point, third-point flexure to determine their ultimate loads, maximum fiber stresses and mid-span deflections. The experimentally determined load capacities of these specimens were compared to those of equivalent steel-reinforced Portland cement concrete beams computed using reinforced concrete theory. Mechanics of materials beam theory was utilized to predict the ultimate loads and mid-span deflections of the flexure and beam specimens. However, these predictions proved to be severely inadequate. Finite element (fracture propagation) analyses of the flexure and beam specimens were also performed. These progressive failure analyses more closely approximated flexural behavior under actual testing conditions by reducing the elastic moduli of elements that were considered to have partially or totally failed. Individual element failures were predicted using the maximum stress, Tsai-Hill and Tsai-Wu failure criteria. Excellent predictions of flexural behavior were attributed to the progressive failure analyses combined with an appropriate failure criterion, and the reliable input material properties that were generated.

Prediction of coefficients of thermal expansion for unidirectional composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowles, David E.; Tompkins, Stephen S.

1989-01-01

Several analyses for predicting the longitudinal, alpha(1), and transverse, alpha(2), coefficients of thermal expansion of unidirectional composites were compared with each other, and with experimental data on different graphite fiber reinforced resin, metal, and ceramic matrix composites. Analytical and numerical analyses that accurately accounted for Poisson restraining effects in the transverse direction were in consistently better agreement with experimental data for alpha(2), than the less rigorous analyses. All of the analyses predicted similar values of alpha(1), and were in good agreement with the experimental data. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the relative influence of constituent properties on the predicted values of alpha(1), and alpha(2). As would be expected, the prediction of alpha(1) was most sensitive to longitudinal fiber properties and the prediction of alpha(2) was most sensitive to matrix properties.

Physical fitness and injury reporting among active duty and National Guard/Reserve women: associations with risk and lifestyle factors.

PubMed

Kazman, Josh B; de la Motte, Sarah; Bramhall, Elizabeth M S; Purvis, Dianna L; Deuster, Patricia A

2015-01-01

As more women enter the military, it is important to understand how different risks and lifestyle factors influence physical fitness and injury among women in both active duty (AD) and National Guard/Reserve (NG/R). Women in military service are less fit and more likely to suffer musculoskeletal injuries during physical training than men. They also use more medical care during deployment than men. Using data from the Comprehensive Soldier and Family Fitness Global Assessment Tool 2.0 (GAT 2.0), self-reported health and lifestyle and behavioral risk factors were analyzed in nondeployed Army personnel, with the goals of examining (1) service-component differences across traditional risk and lifestyle factors, and (2) correlates of physical performance and physical activity-related injury. Self-report GAT 2.0 data included health risk factors (overall perceived health, sleep, diet, tobacco and alcohol use), self-reported health metrics (height, weight, Army Physical Fitness Test (APFT) scores), and history of physical activity-related injury. The GAT 2.0 was completed by 1,322 AD and 1,033 NG/R women, and APFT data were available for a subsample of 605 AD and 582 NG/R women. Initial analyses of GAT 2.0 data indicated that AD had higher rates of fair/poor perceived health, poor sleep, and unhealthy diet compared to NG/R women. However, AD women had a lower APFT fail rate (8%) than NG (27%) and R (28%). Active duty women were more likely to experience a physical injury in the past 6 months (38%) than NG (19%) and R (22%) women, and more likely to seek medical care than NG/R women. Across all service components, predictive factors for APFT failure included high body mass index (BMI), fair/poor health, and unhealthy diet. Predictive factors for physical injury included high BMI, fair/poor health, and binge drinking. Our analyses suggest that AD women Soldiers are more physically fit than NG/R women Soldiers, which is accompanied by a greater prevalence of physical activity-related injuries. As women's roles expand into combat military occupation specialties, a thorough understanding of service component differences will be critical to inform training programs, mitigate physical injury, and enhance force health protection and readiness.

Predictive factors of bacterial meningitis in the patients seen in emergency departments.

PubMed

Morales-Casado, María Isabel; Julián-Jiménez, Agustín; Lobato-Casado, Paula; Cámara-Marín, Belén; Pérez-Matos, Julio Alberto; Martínez-Maroto, Tamara

2017-04-01

To analyse and compare predictive factors of bacterial meningitis in the patients seen in the Emergency Departments (ED) due to an episode of acute meningitis (AM). A prospective, observational study was carried out in patients aged 15 years and older seen in ED due to AM between August 2009 and November 2015. Thirty-two variables for predicting bacterial meningitis were assessed. They covered epidemiological, comorbidity, clinical and analytical factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. The study included 154 patients. The diagnosis was bacterial meningitis in 53 (34.4%) patients. Four variables were significantly associated with bacterial aetiology: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lactate concentration ≥33mg/dl (odds ratio [OR] 50.84; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.63-119.47, P<.001), serum procalcitonin (PCT) ≥0.8ng/ml (OR 46.34; 95%CI: 19.71-108.89; P<.001), CSF glucose <60% of blood value (OR 20.82; 95%CI: 8.86-48.96; P=.001), CSF polymorphonuclears greater than 50% (OR 20.19; 95%CI: 8.31-49.09; P=.002]. The area under the curve for the model serum PCT≥0.8ng/ml plus CSF lactate ≥33mg/dl was 0.992 (95%CI: 0.979-1; P<.001), and achieved 99% sensitivity and 98% specificity for predicting bacterial meningitis. Serum PCT with CSF lactate, CSF glucose and CSF polymorphonuclears evaluated in an initial assessment in the ED for patients with AM, achieved an excellent diagnostic usefulness for predicting bacterial meningitis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

CSmetaPred: a consensus method for prediction of catalytic residues.

PubMed

Choudhary, Preeti; Kumar, Shailesh; Bachhawat, Anand Kumar; Pandit, Shashi Bhushan

2017-12-22

Knowledge of catalytic residues can play an essential role in elucidating mechanistic details of an enzyme. However, experimental identification of catalytic residues is a tedious and time-consuming task, which can be expedited by computational predictions. Despite significant development in active-site prediction methods, one of the remaining issues is ranked positions of putative catalytic residues among all ranked residues. In order to improve ranking of catalytic residues and their prediction accuracy, we have developed a meta-approach based method CSmetaPred. In this approach, residues are ranked based on the mean of normalized residue scores derived from four well-known catalytic residue predictors. The mean residue score of CSmetaPred is combined with predicted pocket information to improve prediction performance in meta-predictor, CSmetaPred_poc. Both meta-predictors are evaluated on two comprehensive benchmark datasets and three legacy datasets using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Precision Recall (PR) curves. The visual and quantitative analysis of ROC and PR curves shows that meta-predictors outperform their constituent methods and CSmetaPred_poc is the best of evaluated methods. For instance, on CSAMAC dataset CSmetaPred_poc (CSmetaPred) achieves highest Mean Average Specificity (MAS), a scalar measure for ROC curve, of 0.97 (0.96). Importantly, median predicted rank of catalytic residues is the lowest (best) for CSmetaPred_poc. Considering residues ranked ≤20 classified as true positive in binary classification, CSmetaPred_poc achieves prediction accuracy of 0.94 on CSAMAC dataset. Moreover, on the same dataset CSmetaPred_poc predicts all catalytic residues within top 20 ranks for ~73% of enzymes. Furthermore, benchmarking of prediction on comparative modelled structures showed that models result in better prediction than only sequence based predictions. These analyses suggest that CSmetaPred_poc is able to rank putative catalytic residues at lower (better) ranked positions, which can facilitate and expedite their experimental characterization. The benchmarking studies showed that employing meta-approach in combining residue-level scores derived from well-known catalytic residue predictors can improve prediction accuracy as well as provide improved ranked positions of known catalytic residues. Hence, such predictions can assist experimentalist to prioritize residues for mutational studies in their efforts to characterize catalytic residues. Both meta-predictors are available as webserver at: http://14.139.227.206/csmetapred/ .

Feasibility and accuracy of computational robot-assisted partial nephrectomy planning by virtual partial nephrectomy analysis.

PubMed

Isotani, Shuji; Shimoyama, Hirofumi; Yokota, Isao; China, Toshiyuki; Hisasue, Shin-ichi; Ide, Hisamitsu; Muto, Satoru; Yamaguchi, Raizo; Ukimura, Osamu; Horie, Shigeo

2015-05-01

To evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of virtual partial nephrectomy analysis, including a color-coded three-dimensional virtual surgical planning and a quantitative functional analysis, in predicting the surgical outcomes of robot-assisted partial nephrectomy. Between 2012 and 2014, 20 patients underwent virtual partial nephrectomy analysis before undergoing robot-assisted partial nephrectomy. Virtual partial nephrectomy analysis was carried out with the following steps: (i) evaluation of the arterial branch for selective clamping by showing the vascular-supplied area; (ii) simulation of the optimal surgical margin in precise segmented three-dimensional model for prediction of collecting system opening; and (iii) detailed volumetric analyses and estimates of postoperative renal function based on volumetric change. At operation, the surgeon identified the targeted artery and determined the surgical margin according to the virtual partial nephrectomy analysis. The surgical outcomes between the virtual partial nephrectomy analysis and the actual robot-assisted partial nephrectomy were compared. All 20 patients had negative cancer surgical margins and no urological complications. The tumor-specific renal arterial supply areas were shown in color-coded three-dimensional model visualization in all cases. The prediction value of collecting system opening was 85.7% for sensitivity and 100% for specificity. The predicted renal resection volume was significantly correlated with actual resected specimen volume (r(2) = 0.745, P < 0.001). The predicted estimated glomerular filtration rate was significantly correlated with actual postoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (r(2) = 0.736, P < 0.001). Virtual partial nephrectomy analysis is able to provide the identification of tumor-specific renal arterial supply, prediction of collecting system opening and prediction of postoperative renal function. This technique might allow urologists to compare various arterial clamping methods and resection margins with surgical outcomes in a non-invasive manner. © 2015 The Japanese Urological Association.

Combining micro-RNA and protein sequencing to detect robust biomarkers for Graves' disease and orbitopathy.

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Masetti, Giulia; Colucci, Giuseppe; Salvi, Mario; Covelli, Danila; Eckstein, Anja; Kaiser, Ulrike; Draman, Mohd Shazli; Muller, Ilaria; Ludgate, Marian; Lucini, Luigi; Biscarini, Filippo

2018-05-30

Graves' Disease (GD) is an autoimmune condition in which thyroid-stimulating antibodies (TRAB) mimic thyroid-stimulating hormone function causing hyperthyroidism. 5% of GD patients develop inflammatory Graves' orbitopathy (GO) characterized by proptosis and attendant sight problems. A major challenge is to identify which GD patients are most likely to develop GO and has relied on TRAB measurement. We screened sera/plasma from 14 GD, 19 GO and 13 healthy controls using high-throughput proteomics and miRNA sequencing (Illumina's HiSeq2000 and Agilent-6550 Funnel quadrupole-time-of-flight mass spectrometry) to identify potential biomarkers for diagnosis or prognosis evaluation. Euclidean distances and differential expression (DE) based on miRNA and protein quantification were analysed by multidimensional scaling (MDS) and multinomial regression respectively. We detected 3025 miRNAs and 1886 proteins and MDS revealed good separation of the 3 groups. Biomarkers were identified by combined DE and Lasso-penalized predictive models; accuracy of predictions was 0.86 (±0:18), and 5 miRNA and 20 proteins were found including Zonulin, Alpha-2 macroglobulin, Beta-2 glycoprotein 1 and Fibronectin. Functional analysis identified relevant metabolic pathways, including hippo signaling, bacterial invasion of epithelial cells and mRNA surveillance. Proteomic and miRNA analyses, combined with robust bioinformatics, identified circulating biomarkers applicable to diagnose GD, predict GO disease status and optimize patient management.

Does age modify the association between psychosocial factors at work and deterioration of self-rated health?

PubMed

Burr, Hermann; Hasselhorn, Hans Martin; Kersten, Norbert; Pohrt, Anne; Rugulies, Reiner

2017-09-01

Objectives Few epidemiological studies have examined whether associations of psychosocial working conditions with risk of poor health differ by age. Based on results from mostly cross-sectional studies, we test whether (i) psychosocial relational factors (social support) are more strongly associated with declining health of older than younger employees and (ii) psychosocial job factors (workpace, influence, possibilities for development) are more strongly associated with declining health of younger than older employees. Methods We extracted two cohorts from the Danish Work Environment Cohort Study (DWECS): the 2000-2005 and 2005-2010 cohorts. The participating 5281 employees with good self-rated health (SRH) at baseline were observed in 6585 5-year time windows. Using log-binomial regression analyses, we analysed whether psychosocial factors at work predicted 5-year deterioration of SRH. Effect modification by age was estimated by calculating relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). Results High workpace among men, low influence at work as well as low social support from colleagues among women, and low possibilities for development and low social support from supervisors among both genders predicted 5-year decline in SRH. Of the 20 interaction analyses, only 1 was statistically significant and in the opposite direction of what was hypothesized (higher risk for declining SRH among middle-aged men with low possibilities for development compared to the young men with high possibilities for development). Conclusions Psychosocial working conditions predicted decline in SRH in this 5-year follow-up study. The model did not support our hypotheses about modifying effects by age.

36 CFR 219.9 - Revision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) Develop the information and complete the analyses described in § 219.20(a) and § 219.21(a); (4) Evaluate... the information, analyses, and requirements described in § 219.20(a) and (b) and § 219.21(a) and (b... areas and unroaded areas based on the information, analyses, and requirements in § 219.20(a) and § 219...

36 CFR 219.9 - Revision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...) Develop the information and complete the analyses described in § 219.20(a) and § 219.21(a); (4) Evaluate... the information, analyses, and requirements described in § 219.20(a) and (b) and § 219.21(a) and (b... areas and unroaded areas based on the information, analyses, and requirements in § 219.20(a) and § 219...

A seasonal forecast scheme for the Inner Mongolia spring drought part-II: a logical reasoning evidence-based method for spring predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Wulan, Wulan; Yu, Xiao; Yang, Zelong; Gao, Jing; Hua, Weiqi; Yang, Peng; Si, Yaobing

2018-05-01

Spring precipitation is the predominant factor that controls meteorological drought in Inner Mongolia (IM), China. This study used the anomaly percentage of spring precipitation (PAP) as a drought index to measure spring drought. A scheme for forecasting seasonal drought was designed based on evidence of spring drought occurrence and speculative reasoning methods introduced in computer artificial intelligence theory. Forecast signals with sufficient lead-time for predictions of spring drought were extracted from eight crucial areas of oceans and 500-hPa geopotential height. Using standardized values, these signals were synthesized into three examples of spring drought evidence (SDE) depending on their primary effects on three major atmospheric circulation components of spring precipitation in IM: the western Pacific subtropical high, North Polar vortex, and East Asian trough. Thresholds for the SDE were determined following numerical analyses of the influential factors. Furthermore, five logical reasoning rules for distinguishing the occurrence of SDE were designed after examining all possible combined cases. The degree of confidence in the rules was determined based on estimations of their prior probabilities. Then, an optimized logical reasoning scheme was identified for judging the possibility of spring drought. The scheme was successful in hindcast predictions of 11 of the 16 (accuracy: 68.8%) spring droughts that have occurred during 1960-2009. Moreover, the accuracy ratio for the same period was 82.0% for drought (PAP ≤ -20%) or not (PAP > -20%). Predictions for the recent 6-year period (2010-2015) demonstrated successful outcomes.

Metrics to quantify the importance of mixing state for CCN activity

DOE PAGES

Ching, Joseph; Fast, Jerome; West, Matthew; ...

2017-06-21

It is commonly assumed that models are more prone to errors in predicted cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations when the aerosol populations are externally mixed. In this work we investigate this assumption by using the mixing state index ( χ) proposed by Riemer and West (2013) to quantify the degree of external and internal mixing of aerosol populations. We combine this metric with particle-resolved model simulations to quantify error in CCN predictions when mixing state information is neglected, exploring a range of scenarios that cover different conditions of aerosol aging. We show that mixing state information does indeed become unimportantmore » for more internally mixed populations, more precisely for populations with χ larger than 75 %. For more externally mixed populations ( χ below 20 %) the relationship of χ and the error in CCN predictions is not unique and ranges from lower than -40 % to about 150 %, depending on the underlying aerosol population and the environmental supersaturation. We explain the reasons for this behavior with detailed process analyses.« less

Metrics to quantify the importance of mixing state for CCN activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ching, Joseph; Fast, Jerome; West, Matthew

It is commonly assumed that models are more prone to errors in predicted cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations when the aerosol populations are externally mixed. In this work we investigate this assumption by using the mixing state index ( χ) proposed by Riemer and West (2013) to quantify the degree of external and internal mixing of aerosol populations. We combine this metric with particle-resolved model simulations to quantify error in CCN predictions when mixing state information is neglected, exploring a range of scenarios that cover different conditions of aerosol aging. We show that mixing state information does indeed become unimportantmore » for more internally mixed populations, more precisely for populations with χ larger than 75 %. For more externally mixed populations ( χ below 20 %) the relationship of χ and the error in CCN predictions is not unique and ranges from lower than -40 % to about 150 %, depending on the underlying aerosol population and the environmental supersaturation. We explain the reasons for this behavior with detailed process analyses.« less

Non-invasive measurement of tibialis anterior muscle temperature during rest, cycling exercise and post-exercise recovery.

PubMed

Flouris, Andreas D; Dinas, Petros C; Tsitoglou, Kiriakos; Patramani, Ioanna; Koutedakis, Yiannis; Kenny, Glen P

2015-07-01

We introduce a non-invasive and accurate method to assess tibialis anterior muscle temperature (Tm) during rest, cycling exercise, and post-exercise recovery using the insulation disk (INDISK) technique. Twenty-six healthy males (23.6  ±  6.2 years; 24.1  ±  3.1 body mass index) were randomly allocated into the 'model' (n = 16) and the 'validation' (n = 10) groups. Participants underwent 20 min supine rest, 20 min cycling exercise at 60% of age-predicted maximum heart rate, and 20 min supine post-exercise recovery. In the model group, Tm (34.55  ±  1.02 °C) was greater than INDISK temperature (Tid; 32.44  ±  1.23 °C; p < 0.001) and skin surface temperature (Tsk; 29.84  ±  1.47 °C; p < 0.001) throughout the experimental protocol. The strongest prediction model (R(2) = 0.646) incorporated Tid and the difference between the current Tid temperature and that recorded four minutes before. No mean difference (p > 0.05) and a strong correlation (r = 0.804; p < 0.001) were observed between Tm and predicted Tm (predTm) in the model group. Cross-validation analyses in the validation group demonstrated no mean difference (p > 0.05), a strong correlation (r = 0.644; p < 0.001), narrow 95% limits of agreement (-0.06  ±  1.51), and low percent coefficient of variation (2.24%) between Tm (34.39  ±  1.00 °C) and predTm (34.45  ±  0.73 °C). We conclude that the novel technique accurately predicts Tm during rest, cycling exercise, and post-exercise recovery, providing a valid and cost-efficient alternative when direct Tm measurement is not feasible.

Accuracy of algorithms to predict accessory pathway location in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

PubMed

Wren, Christopher; Vogel, Melanie; Lord, Stephen; Abrams, Dominic; Bourke, John; Rees, Philip; Rosenthal, Eric

2012-02-01

The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy in predicting pathway location in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome for each of seven published algorithms. ECGs from 100 consecutive children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome undergoing electrophysiological study were analysed by six investigators using seven published algorithms, six of which had been developed in adult patients. Accuracy and concordance of predictions were adjusted for the number of pathway locations. Accessory pathways were left-sided in 49, septal in 20 and right-sided in 31 children. Overall accuracy of prediction was 30-49% for the exact location and 61-68% including adjacent locations. Concordance between investigators varied between 41% and 86%. No algorithm was better at predicting septal pathways (accuracy 5-35%, improving to 40-78% including adjacent locations), but one was significantly worse. Predictive accuracy was 24-53% for the exact location of right-sided pathways (50-71% including adjacent locations) and 32-55% for the exact location of left-sided pathways (58-73% including adjacent locations). All algorithms were less accurate in our hands than in other authors' own assessment. None performed well in identifying midseptal or right anteroseptal accessory pathway locations.

Association of serum anti-rotavirus immunoglobulin A antibody seropositivity and protection against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis: analysis of clinical trials of human rotavirus vaccine.

PubMed

Cheuvart, Brigitte; Neuzil, Kathleen M; Steele, A Duncan; Cunliffe, Nigel; Madhi, Shabir A; Karkada, Naveen; Han, Htay Htay; Vinals, Carla

2014-01-01

Clinical trials of the human rotavirus vaccine Rotarix™ (RV1) have demonstrated significant reductions in severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in children worldwide. However, no correlate of vaccine efficacy (VE) has yet been established. This paper presents 2 analyses which aimed to investigate whether serum anti-RV IgA measured by ELISA 1 or 2 mo post-vaccination can serve as a correlate of efficacy against RVGE: (1) In a large Phase III efficacy trial (Rota-037), the Prentice criteria for surrogate endpoints was applied to anti-RV IgA seropositivity 1 mo post-vaccination. These criteria determine whether a significant vaccine group effect can be predicted from the surrogate, namely seropositivity (anti-RV IgA concentration>20 U/mL); (2) Among other GSK-sponsored RV1 VE studies, 8 studies which assessed immunogenicity at 1 or 2 mo post-vaccination in all or a sub-cohort of enrolled subjects and had at least 10 RVGE episodes were included in a meta-analysis to measure the regression between clinical VE and VE predicted from immunogenicity (VE1). In Rota-037, anti-RV IgA seropositivity post-vaccination was associated with a lower incidence of any or severe RVGE, however, the proportion of vaccine group effect explained by seropositivity was only 43.6% and 32.7% respectively. This low proportion was due to the vaccine group effect observed in seronegative subjects. In the meta-analysis, the slope of the regression between clinical VE and VE1 was statistically significant. These two independent analyses support the hypothesis that post-vaccination anti-RV IgA seropositivity (antibody concentration ≥20 U/mL) may serve as a useful correlate of efficacy in clinical trials of RV1 vaccines.

Perceived competence and enjoyment in predicting students' physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness.

PubMed

Gao, Zan

2008-10-01

This study investigated the predictive strength of perceived competence and enjoyment on students' physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness in physical education classes. Participants (N = 307; 101 in Grade 6, 96 in Grade 7, 110 in Grade 8; 149 boys, 158 girls) responded to questionnaires assessing perceived competence and enjoyment of physical education, then their cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed on the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) test. Physical activity in one class was estimated via pedometers. Regression analyses showed enjoyment (R2 = 16.5) and perceived competence (R2 = 4.2) accounted for significant variance of only 20.7% of physical activity and, perceived competence was the only significant contributor to cardiorespiratory fitness performance (R2 = 19.3%). Only a small amount of variance here leaves 80% unaccounted for. Some educational implications and areas for research are mentioned.

Which Food Security Determinants Predict Adequate Vegetable Consumption among Rural Western Australian Children?

PubMed Central

Godrich, Stephanie L.; Lo, Johnny; Davies, Christina R.; Darby, Jill; Devine, Amanda

2017-01-01

Improving the suboptimal vegetable consumption among the majority of Australian children is imperative in reducing chronic disease risk. The objective of this research was to determine whether there was a relationship between food security determinants (FSD) (i.e., food availability, access, and utilisation dimensions) and adequate vegetable consumption among children living in regional and remote Western Australia (WA). Caregiver-child dyads (n = 256) living in non-metropolitan/rural WA completed cross-sectional surveys that included questions on FSD, demographics and usual vegetable intake. A total of 187 dyads were included in analyses, which included descriptive and logistic regression analyses via IBM SPSS (version 23). A total of 13.4% of children in this sample had adequate vegetable intake. FSD that met inclusion criteria (p ≤ 0.20) for multivariable regression analyses included price; promotion; quality; location of food outlets; variety of vegetable types; financial resources; and transport to outlets. After adjustment for potential demographic confounders, the FSD that predicted adequate vegetable consumption were, variety of vegetable types consumed (p = 0.007), promotion (p = 0.017), location of food outlets (p = 0.027), and price (p = 0.043). Food retail outlets should ensure that adequate varieties of vegetable types (i.e., fresh, frozen, tinned) are available, vegetable messages should be promoted through food retail outlets and in community settings, towns should include a range of vegetable purchasing options, increase their reliance on a local food supply and increase transport options to enable affordable vegetable purchasing. PMID:28054955

Which Food Security Determinants Predict Adequate Vegetable Consumption among Rural Western Australian Children?

PubMed

Godrich, Stephanie L; Lo, Johnny; Davies, Christina R; Darby, Jill; Devine, Amanda

2017-01-03

Improving the suboptimal vegetable consumption among the majority of Australian children is imperative in reducing chronic disease risk. The objective of this research was to determine whether there was a relationship between food security determinants (FSD) (i.e., food availability, access, and utilisation dimensions) and adequate vegetable consumption among children living in regional and remote Western Australia (WA). Caregiver-child dyads ( n = 256) living in non-metropolitan/rural WA completed cross-sectional surveys that included questions on FSD, demographics and usual vegetable intake. A total of 187 dyads were included in analyses, which included descriptive and logistic regression analyses via IBM SPSS (version 23). A total of 13.4% of children in this sample had adequate vegetable intake. FSD that met inclusion criteria ( p ≤ 0.20) for multivariable regression analyses included price; promotion; quality; location of food outlets; variety of vegetable types; financial resources; and transport to outlets. After adjustment for potential demographic confounders, the FSD that predicted adequate vegetable consumption were, variety of vegetable types consumed ( p = 0.007), promotion ( p = 0.017), location of food outlets ( p = 0.027), and price ( p = 0.043). Food retail outlets should ensure that adequate varieties of vegetable types (i.e., fresh, frozen, tinned) are available, vegetable messages should be promoted through food retail outlets and in community settings, towns should include a range of vegetable purchasing options, increase their reliance on a local food supply and increase transport options to enable affordable vegetable purchasing.

On-treatment changes of liver stiffness at week 26 could predict 2-year clinical outcomes in HBV-related compensated cirrhosis.

PubMed

Wu, Shanshan; Kong, Yuanyuan; Piao, Hongxin; Jiang, Wei; Xie, Wen; Chen, Yongpeng; Lu, Lungen; Ma, Anlin; Xie, Shibin; Ding, Huiguo; Shang, Jia; Zhang, Xuqing; Feng, Bo; Han, Tao; Xu, Xiaoyuan; Huo, Lijuan; Cheng, Jilin; Li, Hai; Wu, Xiaoning; Zhou, Jialing; Sun, Yameng; Ou, Xiaojuan; Zhang, Hui; You, Hong; Jia, Jidong

2018-06-01

It is unclear whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) dynamic changes after anti-HBV treatment could predict the risk of liver-related events (LREs), particularly in patients with HBV-related compensated cirrhosis. Treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related compensated cirrhosis were enrolled. All patients were under entecavir-based antiviral therapy, and followed up every 26 weeks for 2 years. The association between LSM and LREs was analysed by Cox proportional hazard model and Harrell C-index analysis. A total of 438 patients were included in the study. At the follow-up of 104 weeks, LREs developed in 33/438 (7.8%) patients, including 16 episodes of decompensation, 18 HCC and 3 deaths. The median LSM remained high from 20.9, 18.6, 20.4 to 20.3 Kpa at week 0, 26, 52 and 78 among patients with LREs, whereas the LSM decreased from 17.8, 12.3, 10.6 to 10.2 Kpa in patients without LREs respectively. Percentage changes of LSM at 26 weeks from baseline were significantly associated with LREs (excluding 11 cases occurred within the first 26 weeks), with a crude hazard ratio of 2.94 (95% CI: 1.73-5.00) and an albumin-adjusted hazard ratio of 2.47 (95% CI: 1.49-4.11). The Harrell C-index of these 2 models for predicting 2-year LREs were 0.68 (95% CI: 0.56-0.80) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.65-0.85) respectively. Nomograms were developed to identify individuals at high risk for point-of-care application. Dynamic changes of LSM alone, or combined with baseline albumin, could predict LREs in patients with HBV-related compensated cirrhosis during antiviral therapy. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A comparison between broiler chicken carcasses with and without visible faecal contamination during the slaughtering process on hazard identification of Salmonella spp.

PubMed

Jiménez, S M; Salsi, M S; Tiburzi, M C; Pirovani, M E

2002-01-01

A comparison of the prevalence of Salmonella in chicken carcasses with and without visible faecal contamination during commercial slaughter practice was made. The relationship between Enterobacteriaceae, coliform and Escherichia coli counts and Salmonella status was also evaluated to establish the likelihood of using these groups as 'index' organisms to predict the presence of pathogen. Samples were removed immediately after evisceration, after the inside-outside shower and after chilling from the processing line for microbiological analysis. Of the carcasses visibly uncontaminated with faeces after the evisceration step 20% harboured salmonellas and 20.8% of the visibly contaminated carcasses were positive for the pathogen. When E. coli, coliforms and Enterobacteriaceae were used as predictor variables the error rates ranged from 33.3 to 60% for both sample types. There was no indication that any of the groups of organisms analysed could predict the incidence of salmonellas on the samples studied. Positive results for the pathogen were obtained at every tested step of the slaughtering process regardless of whether or not faecal contamination was present. The present study demonstrated that carcasses not visibly contaminated with faeces carried Salmonella as well as the visibly contaminated carcasses.

Underestimation of Variance of Predicted Health Utilities Derived from Multiattribute Utility Instruments.

PubMed

Chan, Kelvin K W; Xie, Feng; Willan, Andrew R; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M

2017-04-01

Parameter uncertainty in value sets of multiattribute utility-based instruments (MAUIs) has received little attention previously. This false precision leads to underestimation of the uncertainty of the results of cost-effectiveness analyses. The aim of this study is to examine the use of multiple imputation as a method to account for this uncertainty of MAUI scoring algorithms. We fitted a Bayesian model with random effects for respondents and health states to the data from the original US EQ-5D-3L valuation study, thereby estimating the uncertainty in the EQ-5D-3L scoring algorithm. We applied these results to EQ-5D-3L data from the Commonwealth Fund (CWF) Survey for Sick Adults ( n = 3958), comparing the standard error of the estimated mean utility in the CWF population using the predictive distribution from the Bayesian mixed-effect model (i.e., incorporating parameter uncertainty in the value set) with the standard error of the estimated mean utilities based on multiple imputation and the standard error using the conventional approach of using MAUI (i.e., ignoring uncertainty in the value set). The mean utility in the CWF population based on the predictive distribution of the Bayesian model was 0.827 with a standard error (SE) of 0.011. When utilities were derived using the conventional approach, the estimated mean utility was 0.827 with an SE of 0.003, which is only 25% of the SE based on the full predictive distribution of the mixed-effect model. Using multiple imputation with 20 imputed sets, the mean utility was 0.828 with an SE of 0.011, which is similar to the SE based on the full predictive distribution. Ignoring uncertainty of the predicted health utilities derived from MAUIs could lead to substantial underestimation of the variance of mean utilities. Multiple imputation corrects for this underestimation so that the results of cost-effectiveness analyses using MAUIs can report the correct degree of uncertainty.

"She Finally Smiles … for Real": Reducing Depressive Symptoms and Bolstering Resilience Through a Camp Intervention for LGBTQ Youth.

PubMed

Gillig, Traci K; Miller, Lynn C; Cox, Courtney M

2017-11-29

While summer camps are a recognized evidence-based strategy for building social and emotional skills among youth (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2009), no known studies have evaluated the effects of camp programming for LGBTQ youth in the United States. This pilot study evaluates a novel program (Brave Trails) for LGBTQ youth ages 12 to 20, using a pre-post camper survey (N = 56) and a post-camp parent survey (N = 54). Results show campers experienced increases in identity affirmation and hope and a reduction in depressive symptoms. Regression analyses found changes in identity affirmation predicted reductions in depressive symptoms and increases in resilience. Additionally, campers' experience of key camp programming features predicted changes in depressive symptoms. Findings from the parent survey were consistent with camper survey results. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Do the early development of gestures and receptive and expressive language predict language skills at 5;0 in prematurely born very-low-birth-weight children?

PubMed

Stolt, S; Lind, A; Matomäki, J; Haataja, L; Lapinleimu, H; Lehtonen, L

2016-01-01

It is unclear what the predictive value of very early development of gestures and language is on later language ability in prematurely born very-low-birth-weight (VLBW; birth weight ≤1500g) children. The aim of the present study was to analyse the predictive value of early gestures and a receptive lexicon measured between the ages of 0;9 and 1;3, as well as the predictive value of receptive and expressive language ability at 2;0 for language skills at 5;0 in VLBW children. The subjects were 29 VLBW children and 28 full-term children whose language development has been followed intensively between the ages of 0;9 and 2;0 using the Finnish version of the MacArthur Developmental Inventory and the Reynell Developmental Language Scales (RDLS III). At 5;0, five selected verbal subtests of the Nepsy II test and the Boston Naming Test (BNT) were used to assess children's language skills. For the first time in VLBW children, the development of gestures measured between the ages of 0;9 and 1;3 was shown to correlate significantly and positively with language skills at 5;0. In addition, both receptive and expressive language ability measured at 2;0 correlated significantly and positively with later language skills in both groups. Moreover, according to the hierarchical regression analysis, the receptive language score of the RDLS III at 2;0 was a clear and significant predictor for language skills at 5;0 in both groups. The findings particularly underline the role of early receptive language as a significant predictor for later language ability in VLBW children. The results provide evidence for a continuity between early language development and later language skills. After reading this article, readers will understand the associations between the very early (≤2 years of age) development of gestures and language (i.e. early receptive lexicon, expressive lexicon at 2;0, receptive and expressive language ability at 2;0) and the language skills at 5;0 in prematurely born very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) children. In addition, readers will understand the heterogeneity of the group of VLBW children. The information presented in this article is informative for those who work in a clinical context and who want to be able to identify those VLBW children who need support for their language development at an early age. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Predictors of men's sexual response to erotic film stimuli: the role of affect and self-reported thoughts.

PubMed

Oliveira, Cátia; Laja, Pedro; Carvalho, Joana; Quinta Gomes, Ana; Vilarinho, Sandra; Janssen, Erick; Nobre, Pedro J

2014-11-01

Both emotions and cognitions seem to play a role in determining sexual arousal. However, no studies to date have tested the effects of self-reported thoughts on subjective sexual arousal and genital response using psychophysiological methods. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the role of self-reported thoughts and affect during exposure to erotic material in predicting subjective and genital responses in sexually healthy men. Twenty-seven men were presented with two explicit films, and genital responses, subjective sexual arousal, self-reported thoughts, and positive and negative affect were assessed. Men's genital responses, subjective sexual arousal, affective responses, and self-reported thoughts during exposure to sexual stimulus were measured. Regression analyses revealed that genital responses were predicted by self-reported thoughts (explaining 20% of the variance) but not by affect during exposure to erotic films. On the other hand, subjective sexual arousal was significantly predicted by both positive and negative affect (explaining 18% of the variance) and self-reported thoughts (explaining 37% of the variance). Follow-up analyses using the single predictors showed that "sexual arousal thoughts" were the only significant predictor of subjective response (β = 0.64; P < 0.01) and that "distracting/disengaging thoughts" were the best predictor of genital response (β = -0.51; P < 0.05). The findings of this study suggest that both affect and sexual arousal thoughts play an important role in men's subjective sexual response, whereas genital response seems to be better predicted by distracting thoughts. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

[Prognostic estimation in critical patients. Validation of a new and very simple system of prognostic estimation of survival in an intensive care unit].

PubMed

Abizanda, R; Padron, A; Vidal, B; Mas, S; Belenguer, A; Madero, J; Heras, A

2006-04-01

To make the validation of a new system of prognostic estimation of survival in critical patients (EPEC) seen in a multidisciplinar Intensive care unit (ICU). Prospective analysis of a patient cohort seen in the ICU of a multidisciplinar Intensive Medicine Service of a reference teaching hospital with 19 beds. Four hundred eighty four patients admitted consecutively over 6 months in 2003. Data collection of a basic minimum data set that includes patient identification data (gender, age), reason for admission and their origin, prognostic estimation of survival by EPEC, MPM II 0 and SAPS II (the latter two considered as gold standard). Mortality was evaluated on hospital discharge. EPEC validation was done with analysis of its discriminating capacity (ROC curve), calibration of its prognostic capacity (Hosmer Lemeshow C test), resolution of the 2 x 2 Contingency tables around different probability values (20, 50, 70 and mean value of prognostic estimation). The standardized mortality rate (SMR) for each one of the methods was calculated. Linear regression of the EPEC regarding the MPM II 0 and SAPS II was established and concordance analyses were done (Bland-Altman test) of the prediction of mortality by the three systems. In spite of an apparently good linear correlation, similar accuracy of prediction and discrimination capacity, EPEC is not well-calibrated (no likelihood of death greater than 50%) and the concordance analyses show that more than 10% of the pairs were outside the 95% confidence interval. In spite of its ease of application and calculation and of incorporating delay of admission in ICU as a variable, EPEC does not offer any predictive advantage on MPM II 0 or SAPS II, and its predictions adapt to reality worse.

Estimates of potential childhood lead exposure from contaminated soil using the US EPA IEUBK Model in Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Laidlaw, Mark A S; Mohmmad, Shaike M; Gulson, Brian L; Taylor, Mark P; Kristensen, Louise J; Birch, Gavin

2017-07-01

Surface soils in portions of the Sydney (New South Wales, Australia) urban area are contaminated with lead (Pb) primarily from past use of Pb in gasoline, the deterioration of exterior lead-based paints, and industrial activities. Surface soil samples (n=341) were collected from a depth of 0-2.5cm at a density of approximately one sample per square kilometre within the Sydney estuary catchment and analysed for lead. The bioaccessibility of soil Pb was analysed in 18 samples. The blood lead level (BLL) of a hypothetical 24 month old child was predicted at soil sampling sites in residential and open land use using the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Integrated Exposure Uptake and Biokinetic (IEUBK) model. Other environmental exposures used the Australian National Environmental Protection Measure (NEPM) default values. The IEUBK model predicted a geometric mean BLL of 2.0±2.1µg/dL using measured soil lead bioavailability measurements (bioavailability =34%) and 2.4±2.8µg/dL using the Australian NEPM default assumption (bioavailability =50%). Assuming children were present and residing at the sampling locations, the IEUBK model incorporating soil Pb bioavailability predicted that 5.6% of the children at the sampling locations could potentially have BLLs exceeding 5µg/dL and 2.1% potentially could have BLLs exceeding 10µg/dL. These estimations are consistent with BLLs previously measured in children in Sydney. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Fan Design that Meets the NASA Aeronautics Noise Goals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dittmar, James; Tweedt, Daniel; Jeracki, Robert; Envia, Edmaine; Bartos, Karen; Slater, John

2003-01-01

A fan concept was previously identified that would meet the NASA aeronautics goal of a 20 EPNdB reduction in aircraft noise. This was a 2-stage fan with a pressure ratio of 1.15 and a 460 ft/sec tip speed. The 2 stages were identical so that, with the proper synchrophasing, noise from one stage could be used to cancel noise from the other stage. This paper documents the aerodynamic design of the 2-stage fan concept in a 22-in. diameter size for testing in the NASA Glenn 9- by 15-ft wind tunnel. A set of rotor and stator coordinates are listed in the report. Stress and flutter analyses were done on these blades and showed that the design was structurally viable. A noise prediction code, using the blade coordinates and fan flows, indicated that the 2-stage fan would meet the goal of a 20 dB reduction in fan noise.

Classifying Membrane Proteins in the Proteome by Using Artificial Neural Networks Based on the Preferential Parameters of Amino Acids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, Subrata K.; Browne, Antony; Kazemian, Hassan; White, Kenneth

Membrane proteins (MPs) are large set of biological macromolecules that play a fundamental role in physiology and pathophysiology for survival. From a pharma-economical perspective, though it is the fact that MPs constitute ˜75% of possible targets for novel drugs but MPs are one of the most understudied groups of proteins in biochemical research. This is mainly because of the technical difficulties of obtaining structural information about trans-membrane regions (these are small sequences that crossways the bilayer lipid membrane). It is quite useful to predict the location of transmembrane segments down the sequence, since these are the elementary structural building blocks defining their topology. There have been several attempts over the last 20 years to develop tools for predicting membrane-spanning regions but current tools are far away from achieving a considerable reliability in prediction. This study aims to exploit the knowledge and current understanding in the field of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in particular data representation through the development of a system to identify and predict membrane-spanning regions by analysing primary amino acids sequence. In this paper we present a novel neural network (NNs) architecture and algorithms for predicting membrane spanning regions from primary amino acids sequences by using their preference parameters.

Joint modelling of serological and hospitalization data reveals that high levels of pre-existing immunity and school holidays shaped the influenza A pandemic of 2009 in The Netherlands

PubMed Central

te Beest, Dennis E.; Birrell, Paul J; Wallinga, Jacco; De Angelis, Daniela; van Boven, Michiel

2015-01-01

Obtaining a quantitative understanding of the transmission dynamics of influenza A is important for predicting healthcare demand and assessing the likely impact of intervention measures. The pandemic of 2009 provides an ideal platform for developing integrative analyses as it has been studied intensively, and a wealth of data sources is available. Here, we analyse two complementary datasets in a disease transmission framework: cross-sectional serological surveys providing data on infection attack rates, and hospitalization data that convey information on the timing and duration of the pandemic. We estimate key epidemic determinants such as infection and hospitalization rates, and the impact of a school holiday. In contrast to previous approaches, our novel modelling of serological data with mixture distributions provides a probabilistic classification of individual samples (susceptible, immune and infected), propagating classification uncertainties to the transmission model and enabling serological classifications to be informed by hospitalization data. The analyses show that high levels of immunity among persons 20 years and older provide a consistent explanation of the skewed attack rates observed during the pandemic and yield precise estimates of the probability of hospitalization per infection (1–4 years: 0.00096 (95%CrI: 0.00078–0.0012); 5–19 years: 0.00036 (0.00031–0.0044); 20–64 years: 0.0015 (0.00091–0.0020); 65+ years: 0.0084 (0.0028–0.016)). The analyses suggest that in The Netherlands, the school holiday period reduced the number of infectious contacts between 5- and 9-year-old children substantially (estimated reduction: 54%; 95%CrI: 29–82%), thereby delaying the unfolding of the pandemic in The Netherlands by approximately a week. PMID:25540241

[The mediating role of the interpersonal schemas between parenting styles and psychological symptoms: a schema focused view].

PubMed

Soygüt, Gonca; Cakir, Zehra

2009-01-01

The first aim of this study was to examine the relationships between perceived parenting styles and interpersonal schemas. The second purpose was to investigate the mediator role of interpersonal schemas between perceived parenting styles and psychological symptoms. University students (N=94), ages ranging between 17-26, attending to different faculty and classes, have completed Interpersonal Schema Questionnaire, Young Parenting Inventory and Symptom Check List-90. A series of regression analyses revealed that perceived parenting styles have predictive power on a number of interpersonal schemas. Further analyses pointed out that the mediator role of Hostility situation of interpersonal schemas between psychological symptoms and normative, belittling/criticizing, pessimistic/worried parenting styles on the mother forms (Sobel z= 1.94-2.08, p < .01); and normative, belittling/criticizing, emotionally depriving, pessimistic/worried, punitive, and restricted/emotionally inhibited parenting styles (Sobel z= 2.20-2.86, p < .05-.01) on the father forms of the scales. Regression analyses pointed out the predictive power of perceived parenting styles on interpersonal schemas. Moreover, the mediator role of interpersonal schemas between perceived parenting styles and psychological symptoms was also observed. Excluding pessimistic/anxious parenting styles, perceived parenting styles of mothers and fathers differed in their relation to psychological symptoms. In overall evaluation, we believe that, although schemas and parental styles have some universalities in relation to their impacts on psychological health, further research is necessary to address their implications and possible paternal differences in our collectivistic cultural context.

Use of the 4D-Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) for space shuttle descent design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarty, S. M.

1987-01-01

The method of using the Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) mean and dispersed atmospheres to study skipout/overshoot requirements, to characterize mean and worst case vehicle temperatures, study control requirements, and verify design was discussed. Landing sites in these analyses range from 65 N to 30 S, while orbit inclinations vary from 20 deg to 98 deg. The primary concern was that they cannot use as small vertical steps in the reentry calculation as desired because the model predicts anomalously large density shear rates for very small vertical step sizes. The winds predicted by the model are not satisfactory. This is probably because they are geostrophic winds and because the model has an error in the computation of winds in the equatorial regions.

Comparison of the Reynell Developmental Language Scale II and the Galker test of word-recognition-in-noise in Danish day-care children.

PubMed

Lous, Jørgen; Glenn Lauritsen, Maj-Britt

2018-06-01

To search for predictive factors for language development measured by two receptive language tests for children, the Galker test (a word-recognition-in-noise test) testing hearing and vocabulary, and the Danish version of Reynell Developmental Language Scale (2nd revision, RDLS II) test, a language comprehension test. The study analysed if information about background variables and parents and pre-school teachers was predictive for test scores; if earlier middle ear disease, actual hearing loss and tympanometry was important for language development; and if the two receptive tests differed in terms of the degree to which variables were able to predict test scores at the age of three to five years. All children aged three and five years attending 20 day-care centres for children without cognitive development issues from the Municipality of Hillerød, Denmark, were invited to participate. We used questionnaires to the parents and day-care teachers and examined the children using tympanometry, hearing test and the two receptive language tests. We performed unadjusted and adjusted analyses of raw and grouped scores and background variables, as well as stepwise regression analysis with group scores as outcome. The results of the two tests were surprisingly similar in relation to background variables. The same variables were predictive for scores in the two receptive language tests. The predictive variables were: age group (22-31%), having no sibling (2-3%), being a boy (1%), information from the parents about the child's vocabulary (3%), phonology (0-2%). information from the pre-school teachers on the child's vocabulary (4-6%), and hearing beyond 25 dB in best ear (mean of four frequencies) (1%). We found that nearly the same variables were predictive for the test score and the grouped score in pre-school children in the RDLS II and the Galker test. Information from the pre-school teachers was more predictive of the test score than information from the parents. In the adjusted analysis, beside age group, information about the child's vocabulary was the most predictive information explaining 4-6% of the variation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unemployment in Iraqi Refugees: The Interaction of Pre and Post-Displacement Trauma

PubMed Central

Wright, A. Michelle; Dhalimi, Abir; Lumley, Mark A.; Jamil, Hikmet; Pole, Nnamdi; Arnetz, Judith E.; Arnetz, Bengt B.

2016-01-01

Previous refugee research has been unable to link pre-displacement trauma with unemployment in the host country. The current study assessed the role of pre-displacement trauma, post-displacement trauma, and the interaction of both trauma types to prospectively examine unemployment in a random sample of newly-arrived Iraqi refugees. Participants (N=286) were interviewed three times over the first two years post-arrival. Refugees were assessed for pre-displacement trauma exposure, post-displacement trauma exposure, a history of unemployment in the country of origin and host country, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Analyses found that neither pre-displacement nor post-displacement trauma independently predicted unemployment 2 years post-arrival; however, the interaction of pre and post-displacement trauma predicted 2-year unemployment. Refugees with high levels of both pre and post-displacement trauma had a 91% predicted probability of unemployment, whereas those with low levels of both traumas had a 20% predicted probability. This interaction remained significant after controlling for sociodemographic variables and mental health upon arrival to the U.S. Resettlement agencies and community organizations should consider the interactive effect of encountering additional trauma after escaping the hardships of the refugee's country of origin. PMID:27535348

Respiratory impedance is correlated with airway narrowing in asthma using three-dimensional computed tomography.

PubMed

Karayama, M; Inui, N; Mori, K; Kono, M; Hozumi, H; Suzuki, Y; Furuhashi, K; Hashimoto, D; Enomoto, N; Fujisawa, T; Nakamura, Y; Watanabe, H; Suda, T

2018-03-01

Respiratory impedance comprises the resistance and reactance of the respiratory system and can provide detailed information on respiratory function. However, details of the relationship between impedance and morphological airway changes in asthma are unknown. We aimed to evaluate the correlation between imaging-based airway changes and respiratory impedance in patients with asthma. Respiratory impedance and spirometric data were evaluated in 72 patients with asthma and 29 reference subjects. We measured the intraluminal area (Ai) and wall thickness (WT) of third- to sixth-generation bronchi using three-dimensional computed tomographic analyses, and values were adjusted by body surface area (BSA, Ai/BSA, and WT/the square root (√) of BSA). Asthma patients had significantly increased respiratory impedance, decreased Ai/BSA, and increased WT/√BSA, as was the case in those without airflow limitation as assessed by spirometry. Ai/BSA was inversely correlated with respiratory resistance at 5 Hz (R5) and 20 Hz (R20). R20 had a stronger correlation with Ai/BSA than did R5. Ai/BSA was positively correlated with forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity ratio, percentage predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and percentage predicted mid-expiratory flow. WT/√BSA had no significant correlation with spirometry or respiratory impedance. Respiratory resistance is associated with airway narrowing. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of reported consumption of selected fat-containing foods.

PubMed

Tuorila, H; Pangborn, R M

1988-10-01

A total of 100 American females (mean age = 20.8 years) completed a questionnaire, in which their beliefs, evaluations, liking and consumption (frequency, consumption compared to others, intention to consume) of milk, cheese, ice cream, chocolate and "high-fat foods" were measured. For the design and analysis, the basic frame of reference was the Fishbein-Ajzen model of reasoned action, but the final analyses were carried out with stepwise multiple regression analysis. In addition to the components of the Fishbein-Ajzen model, beliefs and evaluations were used as independent variables. On the average, subjects reported liking all the products but not "high-fat foods", and thought that milk and cheese were "good for you" whereas the remaining items were "bad for you". Principal component analysis for beliefs revealed factors related to pleasantness/benefit aspects, to health and weight concern and to the "functionality" of the foods. In stepwise multiple regression analyses, liking was the predominant predictor of reported consumption for all the foods, but various belief factors, particularly those related to concern with weight, also significantly predicted consumption. Social factors played only a minor role. The multiple R's of the predictive functions varied from 0.49 to 0.74. The fact that all four foods studied elicited individual sets of beliefs and belief structures, and that none of them was rated similar to the generic "high-fat foods", emphasizes that consumers attach meaning to integrated food entities rather than to ingredients.

NADiA ProsVue prostate-specific antigen slope is an independent prognostic marker for identifying men at reduced risk of clinical recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Moul, Judd W; Lilja, Hans; Semmes, O John; Lance, Raymond S; Vessella, Robert L; Fleisher, Martin; Mazzola, Clarisse; Sarno, Mark J; Stevens, Barbara; Klem, Robert E; McDermed, Jonathan E; Triebell, Melissa T; Adams, Thomas H

2012-12-01

To validate the hypothesis that men displaying serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) slopes ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo after prostatectomy, measured using a new immuno-polymerase chain reaction diagnostic test (NADiA ProsVue), have a reduced risk of clinical recurrence as determined by positive biopsy, imaging findings, or death from prostate cancer. From 4 clinical sites, we selected a cohort of 304 men who had been followed up for 17.6 years after prostatectomy for clinical recurrence. We assessed the prognostic value of a PSA slope cutpoint of 2.0 pg/mL/mo against established risk factors to identify men at low risk of clinical recurrence using uni- and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The univariate hazard ratio of a PSA slope >2.0 pg/mL/mo was 18.3 (95% confidence interval 10.6-31.8) compared with a slope ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo (P <.0001). The median disease-free survival interval was 4.8 years vs >10 years in the 2 groups (P <.0001). The multivariate hazard ratio for PSA slope with the covariates of preprostatectomy PSA, pathologic stage, and Gleason score was 9.8 (95% confidence interval 5.4-17.8), an 89.8% risk reduction for men with PSA slopes ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo (P <.0001). The Gleason score (<7 vs ≥ 7) was the only other significant predictor (hazard ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 2.1-13.8, P = .0004). Clinical recurrence after radical prostatectomy is difficult to predict using established risk factors. We have demonstrated that a NADiA ProsVue PSA slope of ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo after prostatectomy is prognostic for a reduced risk of prostate cancer recurrence and adds predictive power to the established risk factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Proteogenomic characterization of human colon and rectal cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Bing; Wang, Jing; Wang, Xiaojing

2014-09-18

We analyzed proteomes of colon and rectal tumors previously characterized by the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and performed integrated proteogenomic analyses. Protein sequence variants encoded by somatic genomic variations displayed reduced expression compared to protein variants encoded by germline variations. mRNA transcript abundance did not reliably predict protein expression differences between tumors. Proteomics identified five protein expression subtypes, two of which were associated with the TCGA "MSI/CIMP" transcriptional subtype, but had distinct mutation and methylation patterns and associated with different clinical outcomes. Although CNAs showed strong cis- and trans-effects on mRNA expression, relatively few of these extend to the proteinmore » level. Thus, proteomics data enabled prioritization of candidate driver genes. Our analyses identified HNF4A, a novel candidate driver gene in tumors with chromosome 20q amplifications. Integrated proteogenomic analysis provides functional context to interpret genomic abnormalities and affords novel insights into cancer biology.« less

Exploring the Link between Serum Phosphate Levels and Low Muscle Strength, Dynapenia, and Sarcopenia.

PubMed

Chen, Yuan-Yuei; Kao, Tung-Wei; Chou, Cheng-Wai; Wu, Chen-Jung; Yang, Hui-Fang; Lai, Ching-Huang; Wu, Li-Wei; Chen, Wei-Liang

2018-02-23

Emerging evidences addressed an association between phosphate and muscle function. Because little attention was focused on this issue, the objective of our study was to explore the relationship of phosphate with muscle strength, dynapenia, and sarcopenia. From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a total of 7421 participants aged 20 years or older were included in our study with comprehensive examinations included anthropometric parameters, strength of the quadriceps muscle, and appendicular lean masses. Within the normal range of serum phosphate, we used quartile-based analyses to determine the potential relationships of serum phosphate with dynapenia, and sarcopenia through multivariate regression models. After adjusting for the pertinent variables, an inverse association between the serum phosphate quartiles and muscle strength was observed and the linear association was stronger than other anthropometric parameters. Notably, the significant association between phosphate and muscle strength was existed in >65 years old age group, not in 20-65 years old. The higher quartiles of phosphate had higher likelihood for predicting the presence of dynapenia rather than sarcopenia in entire population. Our study highlighted that higher quartiles of phosphate had significant association with lower muscle strength and higher risks for predicting the presence of dynapenia.

Source tracing of thunderstorm generated inertia-gravity waves observed during the RADAGAST campaign in Niamey, Niger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naren Athreyas, Kashyapa; Gunawan, Erry; Tay, Bee Kiat

2018-07-01

In recent years, the climate changes and weather have become a major concern which affects the daily life of a human being. Modelling and prediction of the complex atmospheric processes needs extensive theoretical studies and observational analyses to improve the accuracy of the prediction. The RADAGAST campaign was conducted by ARM climate research stationed at Niamey, Niger from January 2006 to January 2007, which was aimed to improve the west African climate studies have provided valuable data for research. In this paper, the characteristics and sources of inertia-gravity waves observed over Niamey during the campaign are investigated. The investigation focuses on highlighting the waves which are generated by thunderstorms which dominate the tropical region. The stratospheric energy densities spectrum is analysed for deriving the wave properties. The waves with Eulerian period from 20 to 50 h occupied most of the spectral power. It was found that the waves observed over Niamey had a dominant eastward propagation with horizontal wavelengths ranging from 350 to 1 400 km, and vertical wavelengths ranging from 0.9 to 3.6 km. GROGRAT model with ERA-Interim model data was used for establishing the background atmosphere to identify the source location of the waves. The waves generated by thunderstorms had propagation distances varying from 200 to 5 000 km and propagation duration from 2 to 4 days. The horizontal phase speeds varied from 2 to 20 m/s with wavelengths varying from 100 to 1 100 km, vertical phase speeds from 0.02 to 0.2 m/s and wavelengths from 2 to 15 km at the source point. The majority of sources were located in South Atlantic ocean and waves propagating towards northeast direction. This study demonstrated the complex large scale coupling in the atmosphere.

Validation of the sperm class analyser CASA system for sperm counting in a busy diagnostic semen analysis laboratory.

PubMed

Dearing, Chey G; Kilburn, Sally; Lindsay, Kevin S

2014-03-01

Sperm counts have been linked to several fertility outcomes making them an essential parameter of semen analysis. It has become increasingly recognised that Computer-Assisted Semen Analysis (CASA) provides improved precision over manual methods but that systems are seldom validated robustly for use. The objective of this study was to gather the evidence to validate or reject the Sperm Class Analyser (SCA) as a tool for routine sperm counting in a busy laboratory setting. The criteria examined were comparison with the Improved Neubauer and Leja 20-μm chambers, within and between field precision, sperm concentration linearity from a stock diluted in semen and media, accuracy against internal and external quality material, assessment of uneven flow effects and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to predict fertility in comparison with the Neubauer method. This work demonstrates that SCA CASA technology is not a standalone 'black box', but rather a tool for well-trained staff that allows rapid, high-number sperm counting providing errors are identified and corrected. The system will produce accurate, linear, precise results, with less analytical variance than manual methods that correlate well against the Improved Neubauer chamber. The system provides superior predictive potential for diagnosing fertility problems.

A gender-balanced approach to the study of peer victimization and aggression subtypes in early childhood.

PubMed

Ostrov, Jamie M; Kamper, Kimberly E; Hart, Emily J; Godleski, Stephanie A; Blakely-McClure, Sarah J

2014-08-01

A short-term longitudinal study during early childhood (N = 301; 155 girls; M = 44.76 months old, SD = 8.20) investigated the prospective associations between peer victimization and aggression subtypes. Specifically, observations of relational and physical victimization as well as teacher reports of the forms (i.e., relational and physical) and functions (i.e., proactive and reactive) of aggression were collected at two time points during an academic year. Within- and between-group gender differences were examined as part of the preliminary analyses. In order to address key study questions, both directions of effect between peer victimization and aggression subtypes were examined. We found that teacher-reported proactive relational aggression predicted decreases in observed relational victimization over time, whereas reactive relational aggression predicted increases in observed relational victimization over time. Ways in which these and other findings extend the literature are discussed.

Predictive validity of the HCR-20 for violent and non-violent sexual behaviour in a secure mental health service.

PubMed

O'Shea, Laura E; Thaker, Dev-Kishan; Picchioni, Marco M; Mason, Fiona L; Knight, Caroline; Dickens, Geoffrey L

2016-12-01

Violent and non-violent sexual behaviour is a fairly common problem among secure mental health service patients, but specialist sexual violence risk assessment is time-consuming and so performed infrequently. We aimed to establish whether a commonly used violence risk assessment tool, the Health Clinical Risk management 20(HCR-20), has predictive validity specifically for inappropriate sexual behaviour. A pseudo-prospective cohort design was used for a study in the adult wards of a large provider of specialist secure mental health services. Routine clinical team HCR-20 assessments were extracted from records, and incidents involving inappropriate sexual behaviour were recorded for the 3 months following assessment. Of 613 patients, 104 (17%) had engaged in at least one inappropriate sexual behaviour; in 65 (10.6%), the sexual act was violent. HCR-20 total score, clinical and risk management subscales, predicted violent and non-violent sexual behaviour. The negative predictive value of the HCR-20 for inappropriate sexual behaviour was over 90%. Prediction of violent sexual behaviour may be regarded as well within the scope of the HCR-20 as a structured professional judgement tool to aid violence risk prediction, but we found that it also predicts behaviours that may be of concern but fall below the violence threshold. High negative predictive values suggest that HCR-20 scores may have some utility for screening out patients who do not require more specialist assessment for inappropriate sexual behaviour. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development of a Two-Dimensional Model for Predicting Transdermal Permeation with the Follicular Pathway: Demonstration with a Caffeine Study.

PubMed

Kattou, Panayiotis; Lian, Guoping; Glavin, Stephen; Sorrell, Ian; Chen, Tao

2017-10-01

The development of a new two-dimensional (2D) model to predict follicular permeation, with integration into a recently reported multi-scale model of transdermal permeation is presented. The follicular pathway is modelled by diffusion in sebum. The mass transfer and partition properties of solutes in lipid, corneocytes, viable dermis, dermis and systemic circulation are calculated as reported previously [Pharm Res 33 (2016) 1602]. The mass transfer and partition properties in sebum are collected from existing literature. None of the model input parameters was fit to the clinical data with which the model prediction is compared. The integrated model has been applied to predict the published clinical data of transdermal permeation of caffeine. The relative importance of the follicular pathway is analysed. Good agreement of the model prediction with the clinical data has been obtained. The simulation confirms that for caffeine the follicular route is important; the maximum bioavailable concentration of caffeine in systemic circulation with open hair follicles is predicted to be 20% higher than that when hair follicles are blocked. The follicular pathway contributes to not only short time fast penetration, but also the overall systemic bioavailability. With such in silico model, useful information can be obtained for caffeine disposition and localised delivery in lipid, corneocytes, viable dermis, dermis and the hair follicle. Such detailed information is difficult to obtain experimentally.

Numerical Analysis of Film Cooling at High Blowing Ratio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

El-Gabry, Lamyaa; Heidmann, James; Ameri, Ali

2009-01-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics is used in the analysis of a film cooling jet in crossflow. Predictions of film effectiveness are compared with experimental results for a circular jet at blowing ratios ranging from 0.5 to 2.0. Film effectiveness is a surface quantity which alone is insufficient in understanding the source and finding a remedy for shortcomings of the numerical model. Therefore, in addition, comparisons are made to flow field measurements of temperature along the jet centerline. These comparisons show that the CFD model is accurately predicting the extent and trajectory of the film cooling jet; however, there is a lack of agreement in the near-wall region downstream of the film hole. The effects of main stream turbulence conditions, boundary layer thickness, turbulence modeling, and numerical artificial dissipation are evaluated and found to have an insufficient impact in the wake region of separated films (i.e. cannot account for the discrepancy between measured and predicted centerline fluid temperatures). Analyses of low and moderate blowing ratio cases are carried out and results are in good agreement with data.

JET2 Viewer: a database of predicted multiple, possibly overlapping, protein-protein interaction sites for PDB structures.

PubMed

Ripoche, Hugues; Laine, Elodie; Ceres, Nicoletta; Carbone, Alessandra

2017-01-04

The database JET2 Viewer, openly accessible at http://www.jet2viewer.upmc.fr/, reports putative protein binding sites for all three-dimensional (3D) structures available in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). This knowledge base was generated by applying the computational method JET 2 at large-scale on more than 20 000 chains. JET 2 strategy yields very precise predictions of interacting surfaces and unravels their evolutionary process and complexity. JET2 Viewer provides an online intelligent display, including interactive 3D visualization of the binding sites mapped onto PDB structures and suitable files recording JET 2 analyses. Predictions were evaluated on more than 15 000 experimentally characterized protein interfaces. This is, to our knowledge, the largest evaluation of a protein binding site prediction method. The overall performance of JET 2 on all interfaces are: Sen = 52.52, PPV = 51.24, Spe = 80.05, Acc = 75.89. The data can be used to foster new strategies for protein-protein interactions modulation and interaction surface redesign. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Resting State Functional Connectivity within the Cingulate Cortex Jointly Predicts Agreeableness and Stressor-Evoked Cardiovascular Reactivity

PubMed Central

Ryan, John P.; Sheu, Lei K.; Gianaros, Peter J.

2010-01-01

Exaggerated cardiovascular reactivity to stress confers risk for cardiovascular disease. Further, individual differences in stressor-evoked cardiovascular reactivity covary with the functionality of cortical and limbic brain areas, particularly within the cingulate cortex. What remains unclear, however, is how individual differences in personality traits interact with cingulate functionality in the prediction of stressor-evoked cardiovascular reactivity. Accordingly, we tested the associations between (i) a particular personality trait, Agreeableness, which is associated with emotional reactions to conflict, (ii) resting state functional connectivity within the cingulate cortex, and (iii) stressor-evoked blood pressure (BP) reactivity. Participants (N=39, 19 men, aged 20–37 yrs) completed a resting functional connectivity MRI protocol, followed by two standardized stressor tasks that engaged conflict processing and evoked BP reactivity. Agreeableness covaried positively with BP reactivity across individuals. Moreover, connectivity analyses demonstrated that a more positive functional connectivity between the posterior cingulate (BA31) and the perigenual anterior cingulate (BA32) covaried positively with Agreeableness and with BP reactivity. Finally, statistical mediation analyses demonstrated that BA31–BA32 connectivity mediated the covariation between Agreeableness and BP reactivity. Functional connectivity within the cingulate appears to link Agreeableness and a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, stressor-evoked BP reactivity. PMID:21130172

Measurement of the inclusive jet cross-sections in proton-proton collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}=8$$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE PAGES

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; ...

2017-09-05

Inclusive jet production cross-sections are measured in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of √s=8 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. The total integrated luminosity of the analysed data set amounts to 20.2 fb -1. Double-differential cross-sections are measured for jets defined by the anti-k t jet clustering algorithm with radius parameters of R = 0.4 and R = 0.6 and are presented as a function of the jet transverse momentum, in the range between 70 GeV and 2.5 TeV and in six bins of the absolute jet rapidity, between 0 and 3.0.more » The measured cross-sections are compared to predictions of quantum chromodynamics, calculated at next-to-leading order in perturbation theory, and corrected for non-perturbative and electroweak effects. The level of agreement with predictions, using a selection of different parton distribution functions for the proton, is quantified. Tensions between the data and the theory predictions are observed.« less

Multicontextual Correlates of Adolescent Leisure-Time Physical Activity

PubMed Central

Graham, Dan J.; Wall, Melanie M.; Larson, Nicole; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2014-01-01

Background Adolescent moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is influenced by many factors. MVPA-promotion interventions would fare better if these multiple determinants were better understood. Purpose To simultaneously assess overall and relative contributions of factors from personal, family, friend, school, and neighborhood contexts to adolescent MVPA. It was hypothesized that: (1) key correlates would emerge in each context; (2) factors from more- versus less-proximal contexts would relate more strongly to MVPA. Methods Students in grades 6–12 (n=2793; mean age=14.4 [SD=2.0] years; 53% girls) were recruited from 20 Minnesota public schools in 2009–2010 to participate in the Eating and Activity in Teens 2010 study. Regression analyses conducted in 2013 examined factors related to weekly MVPA. Data were collected from adolescent participants, their parents and friends, school teachers and administrators, and GIS sources. Results Fifty multicontextual factors explained 25% of MVPA variance for boys and 27% for girls. Personal factors (e.g., self-efficacy) were most predictive of MVPA, followed by social factors (e.g., support for PA); environmental factors (e.g., access to PA resources) were least predictive of adolescent PA. Gender differences emerged for several predictors (e.g., in mutually adjusted analyses, MVPA among girls, but not boys, related positively to distance to trails and MVPA among female friends and fathers, and related negatively to perceived barriers). Conclusions Stronger linkages exist between adolescent MVPA and more-proximal (personal, family, and friend) factors compared to more-distal (school and neighborhood) factors, suggesting the importance of working with adolescents, their families, and friends to promote PA. PMID:24842737

Accuracy of the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Equation in a Large Contemporary, Multiethnic Real-World Population

PubMed Central

Rana, Jamal S.; Tabada, Grace H.; Solomon, Matthew D.; Lo, Joan C.; Jaffe, Marc G.; Sung, Sue Hee; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Go, Alan S.

2016-01-01

Background The accuracy of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) risk equation for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in contemporary and ethnically diverse populations is not well understood. Objectives We sought to evaluate the accuracy of the 2013 ACC/AHA risk equation within a large, multiethnic population in clinical care. Methods The target population for consideration of cholesterol-lowering therapy in a large, integrated health care delivery system population was identified in 2008 and followed through 2013. The main analyses excluded those with known ASCVD, diabetes mellitus, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels <70 or ≥190 mg/dl, prior statin use, or incomplete 5-year follow-up. Patient characteristics were obtained from electronic medical records and ASCVD events were ascertained using validated algorithms for hospitalization databases and death certificates. We compared predicted versus observed 5-year ASCVD risk, overall and by sex and race/ethnicity. We additionally examined predicted versus observed risk in patients with diabetes mellitus. Results Among 307,591 eligible adults without diabetes between 40 and 75 years of age, 22,283 were black, 52,917 Asian/Pacific Islander, and 18,745 Hispanic. We observed 2,061 ASCVD events during 1,515,142 person-years. In each 5-year predicted ASCVD risk category, observed 5-year ASCVD risk was substantially lower: 0.20% for predicted risk <2.50%; 0.65% for predicted risk 2.50 to 3.74%; 0.90% for predicted risk 3.75 to 4.99%; and 1.85% for predicted risk ≥5.00%, with C: 0.74. Similar ASCVD risk overestimation and poor calibration with moderate discrimination (C: 0.68 to 0.74) was observed in sex, racial/ethnic, and socioeconomic status subgroups, and in sensitivity analyses among patients receiving statins for primary prevention. Calibration among 4,242 eligible adults with diabetes was improved, but discrimination was worse (C: 0.64). Conclusions In a large, contemporary “real-world” population, the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort risk equation substantially overestimated actual 5-year risk in adults without diabetes, overall and across sociodemographic subgroups. PMID:27151343

Cardiovascular reactivity to video game predicts subsequent blood pressure increases in young men: The CARDIA study.

PubMed

Markovitz, J H; Raczynski, J M; Wallace, D; Chettur, V; Chesney, M A

1998-01-01

This study was undertaken to determine the relationship between heightened reactivity of blood pressure (BP) during stress and 5-year changes in blood pressure and hypertensive status, using the CARDIA study. A total of 3364 participants (910 white men, 909 white women, 678 black men, and 867 black women), initially 20 to 32 years old and normotensive, were included. Cardiovascular reactivity to psychological stressors (video game and star-tracing tasks for 3 minutes, cold pressor test for 1 minute) was measured in 1987-1988. We then examined reactivity as a predictor of significant BP change (> or = 8 mm Hg, thought to represent a clinically significant increase) over the next 5 years. Logistic regression models were used to control for potential covariates. Significant BP change and the development of hypertension (BP greater than 140/90 or taking medication for hypertension) over the 5-year follow-up were examined in separate analyses. Increased systolic blood pressure (SBP) reactivity to the video game was associated with a significant 5-year SBP increase among the entire cohort, independent of resting SBP (p < .0001). Subsequent analyses showed that this relationship held for men but not for women. Reactivity to the star-tracing task or the cold pressor test did not predict significant BP change. Among black men only, new hypertensives (N = 36) had greater diastolic blood pressure (DBP) reactivity to the video game (p = .01). Although BP reactivity to all physical and mental stressors used in this study did not consistently predict 5-year change in BP in this young cohort, the results indicate that reactivity to a video game stressor predicts 5-year change in BP and early hypertension among young adult men. These findings are consistent with other studies showing the usefulness of stressors producing a primarily beta-adrenergic response in predicting BP change and hypertension. The results may be limited by the shortened initial rest and recovery periods used in the CARDIA protocol.

Evaluation of a model of violence risk assessment among forensic psychiatric patients.

PubMed

Douglas, Kevin S; Ogloff, James R P; Hart, Stephen D

2003-10-01

This study tested the interrater reliability and criterion-related validity of structured violence risk judgments made by using one application of the structured professional judgment model of violence risk assessment, the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme, which assesses 20 key risk factors in three domains: historical, clinical, and risk management. The HCR-20 was completed for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients who had been found not guilty by reason of a mental disorder and were subsequently released to the community. Violence in the community was determined from multiple file-based sources. Interrater reliability of structured final risk judgments of low, moderate, or high violence risk made on the basis of the structured professional judgment model was acceptable (weighted kappa=.61). Structured final risk judgments were significantly predictive of postrelease community violence, yielding moderate to large effect sizes. Event history analyses showed that final risk judgments made with the structured professional judgment model added incremental validity to the HCR-20 used in an actuarial (numerical) sense. The findings support the structured professional judgment model of risk assessment as well as the HCR-20 specifically and suggest that clinical judgment, if made within a structured context, can contribute in meaningful ways to the assessment of violence risk.

A positive relationship between spring temperature and productivity in 20 songbird species in the boreal zone.

PubMed

Meller, Kalle; Piha, Markus; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic climate warming has already affected the population dynamics of numerous species and is predicted to do so also in the future. To predict the effects of climate change, it is important to know whether productivity is linked to temperature, and whether species' traits affect responses to climate change. To address these objectives, we analysed monitoring data from the Finnish constant effort site ringing scheme collected in 1987-2013 for 20 common songbird species together with climatic data. Warm spring temperature had a positive linear relationship with productivity across the community of 20 species independent of species' traits (realized thermal niche or migration behaviour), suggesting that even the warmest spring temperatures remained below the thermal optimum for reproduction, possibly due to our boreal study area being closer to the cold edge of all study species' distributions. The result also suggests a lack of mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak availability of invertebrate food of the study species. Productivity was positively related to annual growth rates in long-distance migrants, but not in short-distance migrants. Across the 27-year study period, temporal trends in productivity were mostly absent. The population sizes of species with colder thermal niches had decreasing trends, which were not related to temperature responses or temporal trends in productivity. The positive connection between spring temperature and productivity suggests that climate warming has potential to increase the productivity in bird species in the boreal zone, at least in the short term.

Risky Sexual Behavior, Bleeding Caused by Intimate Partner Violence, and Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Patients of a Sexually Transmitted Disease Clinic

PubMed Central

Chen, Meng-Jinn; Nochajski, Thomas H.; Testa, Maria; Zimmerman, Scott J.; Hughes, Patricia S.

2009-01-01

Objectives. We sought to investigate independent contributions of risky sexual behaviors and bleeding caused by intimate partner violence to prediction of HCV infection. Methods. We conducted a case–control study of risk factors among patients of a sexually transmitted disease clinic with and without HCV antibodies, group-matched by age. Results. Multivariate analyses indicated that Black race (odds ratio [OR] = 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3, 4.4), injection drug use (OR = 20.3; 95% CI = 10.8, 37.8), sharing straws to snort drugs (OR = 1.8; 95% CI = 1.01, 3.0), sharing razors (OR = 7.8; 95% CI = 2.0, 31.0), and exposure to bleeding caused by intimate partner violence (OR = 5.5; 95% CI = 1.4, 22.8) contributed significantly to the prediction of HCV infection; risky sexual behavior and exposure to blood or sores during sexual intercourse did not. Conclusions. HCV risk among patients of a sexually transmitted disease clinic can be explained by direct blood exposure, primarily through injection drug use. Exposure to bleeding caused by intimate partner violence may be a previously unrecognized mechanism for HCV transmission associated with risky sexual behavior. PMID:19218181

Does hypervascularity of liver metastases as detected on MRI predict disease progression in breast cancer patients?

PubMed

Braga, Larissa; Semelka, Richard C; Pietrobon, Ricardo; Martin, Diego; de Barros, Nestor; Guller, Ulrich

2004-05-01

The aim of our study was to evaluate the association of the vascularity of liver metastases, as characterized by MRI, and disease progression in breast cancer patients. Sixteen breast cancer patients with liver metastases who underwent MRI before and after systemic therapy were retrospectively identified. On the basis of comparison of each MRI examination with the previous examination, disease status of the patients was classified as complete response, partial response, stable disease, or progressive disease. Liver metastases were characterized as hyper- or hypovascular on the basis of the degree of enhancement in the arterial, portal, and interstitial phases of imaging after administration of a contrast agent. Fisher's exact test and ordinal logistic regression models, including the type of systemic therapy, presence of multiple metastases, and hormone receptor status, were used to estimate the unadjusted and risk-adjusted association between the presence of hypervascular liver metastases and disease progression. All patients in our sample (n = 16) were women and most (12/16, 75%) were white. Their median age was 51.5 years. In unadjusted analyses, the association between the presence of hypervascular liver metastases and disease progression was statistically significant (p < 0.0001). In multiple logistic regression analyses, hypervascular liver metastases were found to be an independent predictor of disease progression. Patients with hypervascular liver lesions were 20.5 times more likely to experience disease progression than patients without hypervascular metastases (odds ratio, 20.5; 95% confidence interval, 5.1-83.5; p < 0.0001). Our analysis provides suggestive evidence that disease progression can be predicted through MRI assessment of the vascularity of liver metastases in patients with breast cancer.

Evaluating the intra- and interobserver reliability of three-dimensional ultrasound and power Doppler angiography (3D-PDA) for assessment of placental volume and vascularity in the second trimester of pregnancy.

PubMed

Jones, Nia W; Raine-Fenning, Nick J; Mousa, Hatem A; Bradley, Eileen; Bugg, George J

2011-03-01

Three-dimensional (3-D) power Doppler angiography (3-D-PDA) allows visualisation of Doppler signals within the placenta and their quantification is possible by the generation of vascular indices by the 4-D View software programme. This study aimed to investigate intra- and interobserver reproducibility of 3-D-PDA analysis of stored datasets at varying gestations with the ultimate goal being to develop a tool for predicting placental dysfunction. Women with an uncomplicated, viable singleton pregnancy were scanned at 12, 16 or 20 weeks gestational age groups. 3-D-PDA datasets acquired of the whole placenta were analysed using the VOCAL software processing tool. Each volume was analysed by three observers twice in the A plane. Intra- and interobserver reliability was assessed by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and Bland Altman plots. At each gestational age group, 20 low risk women were scanned resulting in 60 datasets in total. The ICC demonstrated a high level of measurement reliability at each gestation with intraobserver values >0.90 and interobserver values of >0.6 for the vascular indices. Bland Altman plots also showed high levels of agreement. Systematic bias was seen at 20 weeks in the vascular indices obtained by different observers. This study demonstrates that 3-D-PDA data can be measured reliably by different observers from stored datasets up to 18 weeks gestation. Measurements become less reliable as gestation advances with bias between observers evident at 20 weeks. Copyright © 2011 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Considerations when loading spinal finite element models with predicted muscle forces from inverse static analyses.

PubMed

Zhu, Rui; Zander, Thomas; Dreischarf, Marcel; Duda, Georg N; Rohlmann, Antonius; Schmidt, Hendrik

2013-04-26

Mostly simplified loads were used in biomechanical finite element (FE) studies of the spine because of a lack of data on muscular physiological loading. Inverse static (IS) models allow the prediction of muscle forces for predefined postures. A combination of both mechanical approaches - FE and IS - appears to allow a more realistic modeling. However, it is unknown what deviations are to be expected when muscle forces calculated for models with rigid vertebrae and fixed centers of rotation, as generally found in IS models, are applied to a FE model with elastic vertebrae and discs. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of these disagreements. Muscle forces were estimated for 20° flexion and 10° extension in an IS model and transferred to a FE model. The effects of the elasticity of bony structures (rigid vs. elastic) and the definition of the center of rotation (fixed vs. non-fixed) were quantified using the deviation of actual intervertebral rotation (IVR) of the FE model and the targeted IVR from the IS model. For extension, the elasticity of the vertebrae had only a minor effect on IVRs, whereas a non-fixed center of rotation increased the IVR deviation on average by 0.5° per segment. For flexion, a combination of the two parameters increased IVR deviation on average by 1° per segment. When loading FE models with predicted muscle forces from IS analyses, the main limitations in the IS model - rigidity of the segments and the fixed centers of rotation - must be considered. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of SA 349/2 GV blade loads in high speed flight using several rotor analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaubert, Michel; Yamauchi, Gloria K.

1987-01-01

The influence of blade dynamics, dynamic stall, and transonic aerodynamics on the predictions of rotor loads in high-speed flight are presented. Data were obtained from an Aerospatiale Gazelle SA 349/2 helicopter with three Grande Vitesse blades. Several analyses are used for this investigation. First, blade dynamics effects on the correlation are studied using three rotor analyses which differ mainly in the method of calculating the blade elastic response. Next, an ONERA dynamic stall model is used to predict retreating blade stall. Finally, advancing blade aerodynamic loads are calculated using a NASA-developed rotorcraft analysis coupled with two transonic finite-difference analyses.

Clinical trial: factors associated with freedom from relapse of heartburn in patients with healed reflux oesophagitis--results from the maintenance phase of the EXPO study.

PubMed

Labenz, J; Armstrong, D; Zetterstrand, S; Eklund, S; Leodolter, A

2009-06-01

Ability to predict freedom from heartburn relapse during maintenance therapy for healed reflux oesophagitis may facilitate optimal treatment choices for individual patients. To determine factors predicting freedom from heartburn relapse during maintenance proton pump inhibitor therapy in patients with healed reflux oesophagitis. This post-hoc analysis used data from the maintenance phase of the EXPO study (AstraZeneca study code: SH-NEG-0008); 2766 patients with healed reflux oesophagitis and resolved heartburn received once-daily esomeprazole 20 mg or pantoprazole 20 mg for 6 months. Multiple logistic regression analysis determined factors associated with freedom from heartburn relapse. Heartburn relapse rates were lower with esomeprazole than pantoprazole in all subgroups analysed. Esomeprazole treatment was the factor most strongly associated with freedom from heartburn relapse (odds ratio 2.08; P < 0.0001). Other factors significantly associated with freedom from heartburn relapse were Helicobacter pylori infection, greater age, non-obesity, absence of epigastric pain at baseline, pre-treatment nonsevere heartburn and GERD symptom duration < or =5 years. Several factors predict freedom from heartburn relapse during maintenance proton pump inhibitor therapy for healed reflux oesophagitis, the strongest being choice of proton pump inhibitor. These findings outline the importance of optimizing acid control and identifying predictors of relapse for effective long-term symptom management in reflux oesophagitis patients.

Benchmarking hydrological model predictive capability for UK River flows and flood peaks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, Rosanna; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Data and hydrological models are now available for national hydrological analyses. However, hydrological model performance varies between catchments, and lumped, conceptual models are not able to produce adequate simulations everywhere. This study aims to benchmark hydrological model performance for catchments across the United Kingdom within an uncertainty analysis framework. We have applied four hydrological models from the FUSE framework to 1128 catchments across the UK. These models are all lumped models and run at a daily timestep, but differ in the model structural architecture and process parameterisations, therefore producing different but equally plausible simulations. We apply FUSE over a 20 year period from 1988-2008, within a GLUE Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses framework. Model performance was evaluated for each catchment, model structure and parameter set using standard performance metrics. These were calculated both for the whole time series and to assess seasonal differences in model performance. The GLUE uncertainty analysis framework was then applied to produce simulated 5th and 95th percentile uncertainty bounds for the daily flow time-series and additionally the annual maximum prediction bounds for each catchment. The results show that the model performance varies significantly in space and time depending on catchment characteristics including climate, geology and human impact. We identify regions where models are systematically failing to produce good results, and present reasons why this could be the case. We also identify regions or catchment characteristics where one model performs better than others, and have explored what structural component or parameterisation enables certain models to produce better simulations in these catchments. Model predictive capability was assessed for each catchment, through looking at the ability of the models to produce discharge prediction bounds which successfully bound the observed discharge. These results improve our understanding of the predictive capability of simple conceptual hydrological models across the UK and help us to identify where further effort is needed to develop modelling approaches to better represent different catchment and climate typologies.

Childhood adversity, early-onset depressive/anxiety disorders, and adult-onset asthma.

PubMed

Scott, Kate M; Von Korff, Michael; Alonso, Jordi; Angermeyer, Matthias C; Benjet, Corina; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Haro, Josep Maria; Kessler, Ronald C; Kovess, Viviane; Ono, Yutaka; Ormel, Johan; Posada-Villa, José

2008-11-01

To investigate a) whether childhood adversity predicts adult-onset asthma; b) whether early-onset depressive/anxiety disorders predict adult-onset asthma; and c) whether childhood adversity and early-onset depressive/anxiety disorders predict adult-onset asthma independently of each other. Previous research has suggested, but not established, that childhood adversity may predict adult-onset asthma and, moreover, that the association between mental disorders and asthma may be a function of shared risk factors, such as childhood adversity. Ten cross-sectional population surveys of household-residing adults (>18 years, n = 18,303) assessed mental disorders with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0) as part of the World Mental Health surveys. Assessment of a range of childhood family adversities was included. Asthma was ascertained by self-report of lifetime diagnosis and age of diagnosis. Survival analyses calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for risk of adult-onset (>age 20 years) asthma as a function of number and type of childhood adversities and early-onset (

Sexual satisfaction, sexual compatibility, and relationship adjustment in couples: the role of sexual behaviors, orgasm, and men's discernment of women's intercourse orgasm.

PubMed

Klapilová, Kateřina; Brody, Stuart; Krejčová, Lucie; Husárová, Barbara; Binter, Jakub

2015-03-01

Research indicated that (i) vaginal orgasm consistency is associated with indices of psychological, intimate relationship, and physiological functioning, and (ii) masturbation is adversely associated with some such measures. The aim of this study was to examine the association of various dyadic and masturbation behavior frequencies and percentage of female orgasms during these activities with: (i) measures of dyadic adjustment; (ii) sexual satisfaction; and (iii) compatibility perceived by both partners. In a sample of 85 Czech long-term couples (aged 20-40; mean relationship length 5.4 years), both partners provided details of recent sexual behaviors and completed sexual satisfaction, Spanier dyadic adjustment, and Hurlbert sexual compatibility measures. Multiple regression analyses were used. The association of sexual behaviors with dyadic adjustment, sexual compatibility, and satisfaction was analyzed. In multivariate analyses, women's dyadic adjustment is independently predicted by greater vaginal orgasm consistency and lower frequency of women's masturbation. For both sexes, sexual compatibility was independently predicted by higher frequency of penile-vaginal intercourse and greater vaginal orgasm consistency. Women's sexual satisfaction score was significantly predicted by greater vaginal orgasm consistency, frequency of partner genital stimulation, and negatively with masturbation. Men's sexual satisfaction score was significantly predicted by greater intercourse frequency and any vaginal orgasm of their female partners. Concordance of partner vaginal orgasm consistency estimates was associated with greater dyadic adjustment. The findings suggest that specifically penile-vaginal intercourse frequency and vaginal orgasm consistency are associated with indices of greater intimate relationship adjustment, satisfaction, and compatibility of both partners, and that women's masturbation is independently inversely associated with measures of dyadic and personal function. Results are discussed in light of previous research and an evolutionary theory of vaginal orgasm. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Dysfunctional attitudes and poor problem solving skills predict hopelessness in major depression.

PubMed

Cannon, B; Mulroy, R; Otto, M W; Rosenbaum, J F; Fava, M; Nierenberg, A A

1999-09-01

Hopelessness is a significant predictor of suicidality, but not all depressed patients feel hopeless. If clinicians can predict hopelessness, they may be able to identify those patients at risk of suicide and focus interventions on factors associated with hopelessness. In this study, we examined potential predictors of hopelessness in a sample of depressed outpatients. In this study, we examined potential demographic, diagnostic, and symptom predictors of hopelessness in a sample of 138 medication-free outpatients (73 women and 65 men) with a primary diagnosis of major depression. The significance of predictors was evaluated in both simple and multiple regression analyses. Consistent with previous studies, we found no significant associations between demographic and diagnostic variables and greater hopelessness. Hopelessness was significantly associated with greater depression severity, poor problem solving abilities as assessed by the Problem Solving Inventory, and each of two measures of dysfunctional cognitions (the Dysfunctional Attitudes Scale and the Cognitions Questionnaire). In a stepwise multiple regression equation, however, only dysfunctional cognitions and poor problem solving offered non-redundant prediction of hopelessness scores, and accounted for 20% of the variance in these scores. This study is based on depressed patients entering into an outpatient treatment protocol. All analyses were correlational in nature, and no causal links can be concluded. Our findings, identifying clinical correlates of hopelessness, provide clinicians with potential additional targets for assessment and treatment of suicidal risk. In particular, clinical attention to dysfunctional attitudes and problem solving skills may be important for further reduction of hopelessness and perhaps suicidal risk.

[Metacarpophalangeal and carpal numeric indices to calculate bone age and predict adult size].

PubMed

Ebrí Torné, B; Ebrí Verde, I

2012-04-01

This work presents new numerical methods from the meta-carpal-phalangeal and carpal indexes, for calculating bone age. In addition, these new methods enable the adult height to be predicted using multiple regression equations. The longitudinal case series studied included 160 healthy children from Zaragoza, of both genders, aged between 6 months and 20 years, and studied annually, including the radiological study. For the statistical analysis the statistical package "Statistix", as well as the Excel program, was used. The new indexes are closely co-related to the chronological age, thus leading to predictive equations for the calculation of the bone age of children up to 20 years of age. In addition, it presents particular equations for up to 4 years of age, in order to optimise the diagnosis at these early ages. The resulting bones ages can be applied to numerical standard deviation tables, as well as to an equivalences chart, which directly gives us the ossification diagnosis. The predictive equations of adult height allow a reliable forecast of the future height of the studied child. These forecasts, analysed by the Student test did not show significant differences as regards the adult height that children of the case series finally achieved. The results can be obtained with a pocket calculator or through free software available for the reader. For the first time, and using a centre-developed and non-foreign methods, bones age standards and adult height predictive equations for the study of children, are presented. We invite the practitioner to use these meta-carpal-phalangeal and carpal methods in order to achieve the necessary experience to apply it to a healthy population and those with different disorders. Copyright © 2011 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

S. Bays; W. Skerjanc; M. Pope

A comparative analysis and comparison of results obtained between 2-D lattice calculations and 3-D full core nodal calculations, in the frame of MOX fuel design, was conducted. This study revealed a set of advantages and disadvantages, with respect to each method, which can be used to guide the level of accuracy desired for future fuel and fuel cycle calculations. For the purpose of isotopic generation for fuel cycle analyses, the approach of using a 2-D lattice code (i.e., fuel assembly in infinite lattice) gave reasonable predictions of uranium and plutonium isotope concentrations at the predicted 3-D core simulation batch averagemore » discharge burnup. However, it was found that the 2-D lattice calculation can under-predict the power of pins located along a shared edge between MOX and UO2 by as much as 20%. In this analysis, this error did not occur in the peak pin. However, this was a coincidence and does not rule out the possibility that the peak pin could occur in a lattice position with high calculation uncertainty in future un-optimized studies. Another important consideration in realistic fuel design is the prediction of the peak axial burnup and neutron fluence. The use of 3-D core simulation gave peak burnup conditions, at the pellet level, to be approximately 1.4 times greater than what can be predicted using back-of-the-envelope assumptions of average specific power and irradiation time.« less

Numerical simulation of multicellular natural convection in air-filled vertical cavities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunaeva, A. I.; Ivanov, N. G.

2017-11-01

The paper deals with 2D laminar natural convection in vertical air-filled cavities of aspect ratio 20, 30 and 40 with differentially heated sidewalls. The airflow and heat transfer were simulated numerically with an in-house Navier-Stokes code SINF. The focus is on the appearance of stationary vortex structures, “cat’s eyes”, and their transition to unsteady regime in the Rayleigh number range from 4.8×103 to 1.3×104. The dependence of the predicted flow features and the local and integral heat transfer on the aspect ratio value is analysed.

Identification of subgroups by risk of graft failure after paediatric renal transplantation: application of survival tree models on the ESPN/ERA-EDTA Registry.

PubMed

Lofaro, Danilo; Jager, Kitty J; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Groothoff, Jaap W; Arikoski, Pekka; Hoecker, Britta; Roussey-Kesler, Gwenaelle; Spasojević, Brankica; Verrina, Enrico; Schaefer, Franz; van Stralen, Karlijn J

2016-02-01

Identification of patient groups by risk of renal graft loss might be helpful for accurate patient counselling and clinical decision-making. Survival tree models are an alternative statistical approach to identify subgroups, offering cut-off points for covariates and an easy-to-interpret representation. Within the European Society of Pediatric Nephrology/European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ESPN/ERA-EDTA) Registry data we identified paediatric patient groups with specific profiles for 5-year renal graft survival. Two analyses were performed, including (i) parameters known at time of transplantation and (ii) additional clinical measurements obtained early after transplantation. The identified subgroups were added as covariates in two survival models. The prognostic performance of the models was tested and compared with conventional Cox regression analyses. The first analysis included 5275 paediatric renal transplants. The best 5-year graft survival (90.4%) was found among patients who received a renal graft as a pre-emptive transplantation or after short-term dialysis (<45 days), whereas graft survival was poorest (51.7%) in adolescents transplanted after long-term dialysis (>2.2 years). The Cox model including both pre-transplant factors and tree subgroups had a significantly better predictive performance than conventional Cox regression (P < 0.001). In the analysis including clinical factors, graft survival ranged from 97.3% [younger patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and dialysis <20 months] to 34.7% (adolescents with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and dialysis >20 months). Also in this case combining tree findings and clinical factors improved the predictive performance as compared with conventional Cox model models (P < 0.0001). In conclusion, we demonstrated the tree model to be an accurate and attractive tool to predict graft failure for patients with specific characteristics. This may aid the evaluation of individual graft prognosis and thereby the design of measures to improve graft survival in the poor prognosis groups. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

The threshold of hypothyroidism after radiation therapy for head and neck cancer: a retrospective analysis of 116 cases

PubMed Central

Fujiwara, Masayuki; Kamikonya, Norihiko; Odawara, Soichi; Suzuki, Hitomi; Niwa, Yasue; Takada, Yasuhiro; Doi, Hiroshi; Terada, Tomonori; Uwa, Nobuhiro; Sagawa, Kosuke; Hirota, Shozo

2015-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to determine the risk factors for developing thyroid disorders based on a dose–volume histograms (DVHs) analysis. Data from a total of 116 consecutive patients undergoing 3D conformal radiation therapy for head and neck cancers was retrospectively evaluated. Radiation therapy was performed between April 2007 and December 2010. There were 108 males and 8 females included in the study. The median follow-up term was 24 months (range, 1–62 months). The thyroid function was evaluated by measuring thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) levels. The mean thyroid dose, and the volume of thyroid gland spared from doses ≥10, 20, 30 and 40 Gy (VS10, VS20, VS30 and VS40) were calculated for all patients. The thyroid dose and volume were calculated by the radiotherapy planning system (RTPS). The cumulative incidences of hypothyroidism were 21.1% and 36.4% at one year and two years, respectively, after the end of radiation therapy. In the DVH analyses, the patients who received a mean thyroid dose <30 Gy had a significantly lower incidence of hypothyroidism. The univariate analyses showed that the VS10, VS20, VS30 and VS40 were associated with the risk of hypothyroidism. Hypothyroidism was a relatively common type of late radiation-induced toxicity. A mean thyroid dose of 30 Gy may be a useful threshold for predicting the development of hypothyroidism after radiation therapy for head and neck cancers. PMID:25818629

Radiographic absence of the posterior communicating arteries and the prediction of cognitive dysfunction after carotid endarterectomy.

PubMed

Sussman, Eric S; Kellner, Christopher P; Mergeche, Joanna L; Bruce, Samuel S; McDowell, Michael M; Heyer, Eric J; Connolly, E Sander

2014-09-01

Approximately 25% of patients exhibit cognitive dysfunction 24 hours after carotid endarterectomy (CEA). One of the purported mechanisms of early cognitive dysfunction (eCD) is hypoperfusion due to inadequate collateral circulation during cross-clamping of the carotid artery. The authors assessed whether poor collateral circulation within the circle of Willis, as determined by preoperative CT angiography (CTA) or MR angiography (MRA), could predict eCD. Patients who underwent CEA after preoperative MRA or CTA imaging and full neuropsychometric evaluation were included in this study (n = 42); 4 patients were excluded due to intraoperative electroencephalographic changes and subsequent shunt placement. Thirty-eight patients were included in the statistical analyses. Patients were stratified according to posterior communicating artery (PCoA) status (radiographic visualization of at least 1 PCoA vs of no PCoAs). Variables with p < 0.20 in univariate analyses were included in a stepwise multivariate logistic regression model to identify predictors of eCD after CEA. Overall, 23.7% of patients exhibited eCD. In the final multivariate logistic regression model, radiographic absence of both PCoAs was the only independent predictor of eCD (OR 9.64, 95% CI 1.43-64.92, p = 0.02). The absence of both PCoAs on preoperative radiographic imaging is predictive of eCD after CEA. This finding supports the evidence for an underlying ischemic etiology of eCD. Larger studies are justified to verify the findings of this study. Clinical trial registration no.: NCT00597883 ( http://www.clinicaltrials.gov ).

Theory and Design Tools For Studies of Reactions to Abrupt Changes in Noise Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fields, James M.; Ehrlich, Gary E.; Zador, Paul; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Study plans, a pre-tested questionnaire, a sample design evaluation tool, a community publicity monitoring plan, and a theoretical framework have been developed to support combined social/acoustical surveys of residents' reactions to an abrupt change in environmental noise, Secondary analyses of more than 20 previous surveys provide estimates of three parameters of a study simulation model; within individual variability, between study wave variability, and between neighborhood variability in response to community noise. The simulation model predicts the precision of the results from social surveys of reactions to noise, including changes in noise. When the study simulation model analyzed the population distribution, noise exposure environments and feasible noise measurement program at a proposed noise change survey site, it was concluded that the site could not yield sufficient precise estimates of human reaction model to justify conducting a survey. Additional secondary analyses determined that noise reactions are affected by the season of the social survey.

bpRNA: large-scale automated annotation and analysis of RNA secondary structure.

PubMed

Danaee, Padideh; Rouches, Mason; Wiley, Michelle; Deng, Dezhong; Huang, Liang; Hendrix, David

2018-05-09

While RNA secondary structure prediction from sequence data has made remarkable progress, there is a need for improved strategies for annotating the features of RNA secondary structures. Here, we present bpRNA, a novel annotation tool capable of parsing RNA structures, including complex pseudoknot-containing RNAs, to yield an objective, precise, compact, unambiguous, easily-interpretable description of all loops, stems, and pseudoknots, along with the positions, sequence, and flanking base pairs of each such structural feature. We also introduce several new informative representations of RNA structure types to improve structure visualization and interpretation. We have further used bpRNA to generate a web-accessible meta-database, 'bpRNA-1m', of over 100 000 single-molecule, known secondary structures; this is both more fully and accurately annotated and over 20-times larger than existing databases. We use a subset of the database with highly similar (≥90% identical) sequences filtered out to report on statistical trends in sequence, flanking base pairs, and length. Both the bpRNA method and the bpRNA-1m database will be valuable resources both for specific analysis of individual RNA molecules and large-scale analyses such as are useful for updating RNA energy parameters for computational thermodynamic predictions, improving machine learning models for structure prediction, and for benchmarking structure-prediction algorithms.

Unemployment in Iraqi refugees: The interaction of pre and post-displacement trauma.

PubMed

Wright, A Michelle; Dhalimi, Abir; Lumley, Mark A; Jamil, Hikmet; Pole, Nnamdi; Arnetz, Judith E; Arnetz, Bengt B

2016-12-01

Previous refugee research has been unable to link pre-displacement trauma with unemployment in the host country. The current study assessed the role of pre-displacement trauma, post-displacement trauma, and the interaction of both trauma types to prospectively examine unemployment in a random sample of newly-arrived Iraqi refugees. Participants (N = 286) were interviewed three times over the first two years post-arrival. Refugees were assessed for pre-displacement trauma exposure, post-displacement trauma exposure, a history of unemployment in the country of origin and host country, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Analyses found that neither pre-displacement nor post-displacement trauma independently predicted unemployment 2 years post-arrival; however, the interaction of pre and post-displacement trauma predicted 2-year unemployment. Refugees with high levels of both pre and post-displacement trauma had a 91% predicted probability of unemployment, whereas those with low levels of both traumas had a 20% predicted probability. This interaction remained significant after controlling for sociodemographic variables and mental health upon arrival to the US. Resettlement agencies and community organizations should consider the interactive effect of encountering additional trauma after escaping the hardships of the refugee's country of origin. © 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Microbial genomic island discovery, visualization and analysis.

PubMed

Bertelli, Claire; Tilley, Keith E; Brinkman, Fiona S L

2018-06-03

Horizontal gene transfer (also called lateral gene transfer) is a major mechanism for microbial genome evolution, enabling rapid adaptation and survival in specific niches. Genomic islands (GIs), commonly defined as clusters of bacterial or archaeal genes of probable horizontal origin, are of particular medical, environmental and/or industrial interest, as they disproportionately encode virulence factors and some antimicrobial resistance genes and may harbor entire metabolic pathways that confer a specific adaptation (solvent resistance, symbiosis properties, etc). As large-scale analyses of microbial genomes increases, such as for genomic epidemiology investigations of infectious disease outbreaks in public health, there is increased appreciation of the need to accurately predict and track GIs. Over the past decade, numerous computational tools have been developed to tackle the challenges inherent in accurate GI prediction. We review here the main types of GI prediction methods and discuss their advantages and limitations for a routine analysis of microbial genomes in this era of rapid whole-genome sequencing. An assessment is provided of 20 GI prediction software methods that use sequence-composition bias to identify the GIs, using a reference GI data set from 104 genomes obtained using an independent comparative genomics approach. Finally, we present guidelines to assist researchers in effectively identifying these key genomic regions.

The interaction between impaired acute insulin response and insulin resistance predict type 2 diabetes and impairment of fasting glucose.

PubMed

Zethelius, Björn; Berglund, Lars; Hänni, Arvo; Berne, Christian

2008-01-01

Impaired acute insulin response (AIR) and insulin resistance (IR) are characteristics of Type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The aim was to develop risk models for T2DM and impaired fasting glucose (IFG), reflecting estimates both of AIR and IR, and of their interaction, as predictors over 20 years of follow-up. We developed predictive models using hierarchic multiple regression analyses in a population-based cohort of 1227 men with normal fasting blood glucose at baseline (1970-73) and were reinvestigated after 10 and after 20 years. Using IVGTT-variables correlated either to AIR or to IR, separate models were developed. Combined models were also estimated from which prediction scores, representing individual risk, were calculated. In combined models, interaction between prediction scores reflecting AIR and IR predicted T2DM and IFG. Lowest tertile of AIR and the highest tertile of IR showed a relative risk (RR) of 15.3 (95%-CI=5.58-41.84) for T2DM compared to the contrast group (high AIR and low IR). Corresponding RR for IFG was 13.23 (95%-CI=6.53-26.78). C-statistic increased from 0.76 to 0.79 (p=0.018) for T2DM and from 0.77 to 0.80 for IFG (p=0.062) taking interaction into account. Main effects of lowest tertile of AIR and highest tertile of IR versus best were: RR for T2DM, 8.80 (95%-CI=4.25-18.21) and 6.31 (95%-CI=3.26-12.21); for IFG, 9.07, (95%-CI=5.38-15.29) and 4.49 (95%-CI=2.98-6-76). The interaction between low AIR and high IR revealed a high relative risk for T2DM or IFG reflecting the interplay between these factors over long time on worsening glucose tolerance and development of manifest disease.

Fine mapping and identification of candidate genes for the sy-2 locus in a temperature-sensitive chili pepper (Capsicum chinense).

PubMed

Liu, Li; Venkatesh, Jelli; Jo, Yeong Deuk; Koeda, Sota; Hosokawa, Munetaka; Kang, Jin-Ho; Goritschnig, Sandra; Kang, Byoung-Cheorl

2016-08-01

The sy - 2 temperature-sensitive gene from Capsicum chinense was fine mapped to a 138.8-kb region at the distal portion of pepper chromosome 1. Based on expression analyses, two putative F-box genes were identified as sy - 2 candidate genes. Seychelles-2 ('sy-2') is a temperature-sensitive natural mutant of Capsicum chinense, which exhibits an abnormal leaf phenotype when grown at temperatures below 24 °C. We previously showed that the sy-2 phenotype is controlled by a single recessive gene, sy-2, located on pepper chromosome 1. In this study, a high-resolution genetic and physical map for the sy-2 locus was constructed using two individual F2 mapping populations derived from a cross between C. chinense mutant 'sy-2' and wild-type 'No. 3341'. The sy-2 gene was fine mapped to a 138.8-kb region between markers SNP 5-5 and SNP 3-8 at the distal portion of chromosome 1, based on comparative genomic analysis and genomic information from pepper. The sy-2 target region was predicted to contain 27 genes. Expression analysis of these predicted genes showed a differential expression pattern for ORF10 and ORF20 between mutant and wild-type plants; with both having significantly lower expression in 'sy-2' than in wild-type plants. In addition, the coding sequences of both ORF10 and ORF20 contained single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) causing amino acid changes, which may have important functional consequences. ORF10 and ORF20 are predicted to encode F-box proteins, which are components of the SCF complex. Based on the differential expression pattern and the presence of nonsynonymous SNPs, we suggest that these two putative F-box genes are most likely responsible for the temperature-sensitive phenotypes in pepper. Further investigation of these genes may enable a better understanding of the molecular mechanisms of low temperature sensitivity in plants.

Connecting clinical and actuarial prediction with rule-based methods.

PubMed

Fokkema, Marjolein; Smits, Niels; Kelderman, Henk; Penninx, Brenda W J H

2015-06-01

Meta-analyses comparing the accuracy of clinical versus actuarial prediction have shown actuarial methods to outperform clinical methods, on average. However, actuarial methods are still not widely used in clinical practice, and there has been a call for the development of actuarial prediction methods for clinical practice. We argue that rule-based methods may be more useful than the linear main effect models usually employed in prediction studies, from a data and decision analytic as well as a practical perspective. In addition, decision rules derived with rule-based methods can be represented as fast and frugal trees, which, unlike main effects models, can be used in a sequential fashion, reducing the number of cues that have to be evaluated before making a prediction. We illustrate the usability of rule-based methods by applying RuleFit, an algorithm for deriving decision rules for classification and regression problems, to a dataset on prediction of the course of depressive and anxiety disorders from Penninx et al. (2011). The RuleFit algorithm provided a model consisting of 2 simple decision rules, requiring evaluation of only 2 to 4 cues. Predictive accuracy of the 2-rule model was very similar to that of a logistic regression model incorporating 20 predictor variables, originally applied to the dataset. In addition, the 2-rule model required, on average, evaluation of only 3 cues. Therefore, the RuleFit algorithm appears to be a promising method for creating decision tools that are less time consuming and easier to apply in psychological practice, and with accuracy comparable to traditional actuarial methods. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

The Work-Family Conflict Scale (WAFCS): development and initial validation of a self-report measure of work-family conflict for use with parents.

PubMed

Haslam, Divna; Filus, Ania; Morawska, Alina; Sanders, Matthew R; Fletcher, Renee

2015-06-01

This paper outlines the development and validation of the Work-Family Conflict Scale (WAFCS) designed to measure work-to-family conflict (WFC) and family-to-work conflict (FWC) for use with parents of young children. An expert informant and consumer feedback approach was utilised to develop and refine 20 items, which were subjected to a rigorous validation process using two separate samples of parents of 2-12 year old children (n = 305 and n = 264). As a result of statistical analyses several items were dropped resulting in a brief 10-item scale comprising two subscales assessing theoretically distinct but related constructs: FWC (five items) and WFC (five items). Analyses revealed both subscales have good internal consistency, construct validity as well as concurrent and predictive validity. The results indicate the WAFCS is a promising brief measure for the assessment of work-family conflict in parents. Benefits of the measure as well as potential uses are discussed.

Meta-dimensional data integration identifies critical pathways for susceptibility, tumorigenesis and progression of endometrial cancer.

PubMed

Wei, Runmin; De Vivo, Immaculata; Huang, Sijia; Zhu, Xun; Risch, Harvey; Moore, Jason H; Yu, Herbert; Garmire, Lana X

2016-08-23

Endometrial Cancer (EC) is one of the most common female cancers. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been investigated to identify genetic polymorphisms that are predictive of EC risks. Here we utilized a meta-dimensional integrative approach to seek genetically susceptible pathways that may be associated with tumorigenesis and progression of EC. We analyzed GWAS data obtained from Connecticut Endometrial Cancer Study (CECS) and identified the top 20 EC susceptible pathways. To further verify the significance of top 20 EC susceptible pathways, we conducted pathway-level multi-omics analyses using EC exome-Seq, RNA-Seq and survival data, all based on The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) samples. We measured the overall consistent rankings of these pathways in all four data types. Some well-studied pathways, such as p53 signaling and cell cycle pathways, show consistently high rankings across different analyses. Additionally, other cell signaling pathways (e.g. IGF-1/mTOR, rac-1 and IL-5 pathway), genetic information processing pathway (e.g. homologous recombination) and metabolism pathway (e.g. sphingolipid metabolism) are also highly associated with EC risks, diagnosis and prognosis. In conclusion, the meta-dimensional integration of EC cohorts has suggested some common pathways that may be associated from predisposition, tumorigenesis to progression.

100 years of mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Australia: the role of tobacco consumption.

PubMed

Adair, T; Hoy, D; Dettrick, Z; Lopez, A D

2012-12-01

Global studies of the long-term association between tobacco consumption and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have relied upon descriptions of trends. To statistically analyse the relationship of tobacco consumption with data on mortality due to COPD over the past 100 years in Australia. Tobacco consumption was reconstructed back to 1887. Log-linear Poisson regression models were used to analyse cumulative cohort and lagged time-specific smoking data and its relationship with COPD mortality. Age-standardised COPD mortality, although likely misclassified with other diseases, decreased for males and females from 1907 until the start of the Second World War in contrast to steadily rising tobacco consumption. Thereafter, COPD mortality rose sharply in line with trends in smoking, peaking in the early 1970s for males and over 20 years later for females, before falling again. Regression models revealed both cumulative and time-specific tobacco consumption to be strongly predictive of COPD mortality, with a time lag of 15 years for males and 20 years for females. Sharp falls in COPD mortality before the Second World War were unrelated to tobacco consumption. Smoking was the primary driver of post-War trends, and the success of anti-smoking campaigns has sharply reduced COPD mortality levels.

Response to a combination of oxygen and a hypnotic as treatment for obstructive sleep apnoea is predicted by a patient's therapeutic CPAP requirement.

PubMed

Landry, Shane A; Joosten, Simon A; Sands, Scott A; White, David P; Malhotra, Atul; Wellman, Andrew; Hamilton, Garun S; Edwards, Bradley A

2017-08-01

Upper airway collapsibility predicts the response to several non-continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) interventions for obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA). Measures of upper airway collapsibility cannot be easily performed in a clinical context; however, a patient's therapeutic CPAP requirement may serve as a surrogate measure of collapsibility. The present work aimed to compare the predictive use of CPAP level with detailed physiological measures of collapsibility. Therapeutic CPAP levels and gold-standard pharyngeal collapsibility measures (passive pharyngeal critical closing pressure (P crit ) and ventilation at CPAP level of 0 cmH 2 O (V passive )) were retrospectively analysed from a randomized controlled trial (n = 20) comparing the combination of oxygen and eszopiclone (treatment) versus placebo/air control. Responders (9/20) to treatment were defined as those who exhibited a 50% reduction in apnoea/hypopnoea index (AHI) plus an AHI<15 events/h on-therapy. Responders to treatment had a lower therapeutic CPAP requirement compared with non-responders (6.6 (5.4-8.1)  cmH 2 O vs 8.9 (8.4-10.4) cmH 2 O, P = 0.007), consistent with their reduced collapsibility (lower P crit , P = 0.017, higher V passive P = 0.025). Therapeutic CPAP level provided the highest predictive accuracy for differentiating responders from non-responders (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.86 ± 0.9, 95% CI: 0.68-1.00, P = 0.007). However, both P crit (AUC = 0.83 ± 0.11, 95% CI: 0.62-1.00, P = 0.017) and V passive (AUC = 0.77 ± 0.12, 95% CI: 0.53-1.00, P = 0.44) performed well, and the difference in AUC for these three metrics was not statistically different. A therapeutic CPAP level ≤8 cmH 2 O provided 78% sensitivity and 82% specificity (positive predictive value = 78%, negative predictive value = 82%) for predicting a response to these therapies. Therapeutic CPAP requirement, as a surrogate measure of pharyngeal collapsibility, predicts the response to non-anatomical therapy (oxygen and eszopiclone) for OSA. © 2017 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Reliability, Factor Structure, and Associations With Measures of Problem Relationship and Behavior of the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 in a Sample of Italian Community-Dwelling Adolescents.

PubMed

Somma, Antonella; Borroni, Serena; Maffei, Cesare; Giarolli, Laura E; Markon, Kristian E; Krueger, Robert F; Fossati, Andrea

2017-10-01

In order to assess the reliability, factorial validity, and criterion validity of the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5) among adolescents, 1,264 Italian high school students were administered the PID-5. Participants were also administered the Questionnaire on Relationships and Substance Use as a criterion measure. In the full sample, McDonald's ω values were adequate for the PID-5 scales (median ω = .85, SD = .06), except for Suspiciousness. However, all PID-5 scales showed average inter-item correlation values in the .20-.55 range. Exploratory structural equation modeling analyses provided moderate support for the a priori model of PID-5 trait scales. Ordinal logistic regression analyses showed that selected PID-5 trait scales predicted a significant, albeit moderate (Cox & Snell R 2 values ranged from .08 to .15, all ps < .001) amount of variance in Questionnaire on Relationships and Substance Use variables.

Deep learning predictions of survival based on MRI in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

van der Burgh, Hannelore K; Schmidt, Ruben; Westeneng, Henk-Jan; de Reus, Marcel A; van den Berg, Leonard H; van den Heuvel, Martijn P

2017-01-01

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neuromuscular disease, with large variation in survival between patients. Currently, it remains rather difficult to predict survival based on clinical parameters alone. Here, we set out to use clinical characteristics in combination with MRI data to predict survival of ALS patients using deep learning, a machine learning technique highly effective in a broad range of big-data analyses. A group of 135 ALS patients was included from whom high-resolution diffusion-weighted and T1-weighted images were acquired at the first visit to the outpatient clinic. Next, each of the patients was monitored carefully and survival time to death was recorded. Patients were labeled as short, medium or long survivors, based on their recorded time to death as measured from the time of disease onset. In the deep learning procedure, the total group of 135 patients was split into a training set for deep learning (n = 83 patients), a validation set (n = 20) and an independent evaluation set (n = 32) to evaluate the performance of the obtained deep learning networks. Deep learning based on clinical characteristics predicted survival category correctly in 68.8% of the cases. Deep learning based on MRI predicted 62.5% correctly using structural connectivity and 62.5% using brain morphology data. Notably, when we combined the three sources of information, deep learning prediction accuracy increased to 84.4%. Taken together, our findings show the added value of MRI with respect to predicting survival in ALS, demonstrating the advantage of deep learning in disease prognostication.

Characterizing Tumor Heterogeneity With Functional Imaging and Quantifying High-Risk Tumor Volume for Early Prediction of Treatment Outcome: Cervical Cancer as a Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayr, Nina A., E-mail: Nina.Mayr@osumc.edu; Huang Zhibin; Wang, Jian Z.

2012-07-01

Purpose: Treatment response in cancer has been monitored by measuring anatomic tumor volume (ATV) at various times without considering the inherent functional tumor heterogeneity known to critically influence ultimate treatment outcome: primary tumor control and survival. This study applied dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) functional MRI to characterize tumors' heterogeneous subregions with low DCE values, at risk for treatment failure, and to quantify the functional risk volume (FRV) for personalized early prediction of treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: DCE-MRI was performed in 102 stage IB{sub 2}-IVA cervical cancer patients to assess tumor perfusion heterogeneity before and during radiation/chemotherapy. FRV represents the totalmore » volume of tumor voxels with critically low DCE signal intensity (<2.1 compared with precontrast image, determined by previous receiver operator characteristic analysis). FRVs were correlated with treatment outcome (follow-up: 0.2-9.4, mean 6.8 years) and compared with ATVs (Mann-Whitney, Kaplan-Meier, and multivariate analyses). Results: Before and during therapy at 2-2.5 and 4-5 weeks of RT, FRVs >20, >13, and >5 cm{sup 3}, respectively, significantly predicted unfavorable 6-year primary tumor control (p = 0.003, 7.3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -8}, 2.0 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -8}) and disease-specific survival (p = 1.9 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -4}, 2.1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -6}, 2.5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7}, respectively). The FRVs were superior to the ATVs as early predictors of outcome, and the differentiating power of FRVs increased during treatment. Discussion: Our preliminary results suggest that functional tumor heterogeneity can be characterized by DCE-MRI to quantify FRV for predicting ultimate long-term treatment outcome. FRV is a novel functional imaging heterogeneity parameter, superior to ATV, and can be clinically translated for personalized early outcome prediction before or as early as 2-5 weeks into treatment.« less

Mechanism of Action for Obtaining Job Offers With Virtual Reality Job Interview Training.

PubMed

Smith, Matthew J; Smith, Justin D; Fleming, Michael F; Jordan, Neil; Brown, C Hendricks; Humm, Laura; Olsen, Dale; Bell, Morris D

2017-07-01

Four randomized controlled trials revealed that virtual-reality job interview training (VR-JIT) improved interviewing skills and the odds of obtaining a job offer among trainees with severe mental illness or autism spectrum disorder. This study assessed whether postintervention interviewing skills mediated the relationship between completion of virtual interviews and receiving job offers by six-month follow-up. VR-JIT trainees (N=79) completed pre- and posttest mock interviews and a brief survey approximately six months later to assess whether they received a job offer. As hypothesized, analyses indicated that the number of completed virtual interviews predicted greater posttest interviewing skills (β=.20, 95% posterior credible interval [PCI]=.08-.33), which in turn predicted trainees' obtaining a job offer (β=.28, 95% PCI=.01-.53). VR-JIT may provide a mechanism of action that helps trainees with various psychiatric diagnoses obtain job offers in the community. Future research can evaluate the community-based effectiveness of this novel intervention.

Neuropsychological tests for predicting cognitive decline in older adults

PubMed Central

Baerresen, Kimberly M; Miller, Karen J; Hanson, Eric R; Miller, Justin S; Dye, Richelin V; Hartman, Richard E; Vermeersch, David; Small, Gary W

2015-01-01

Summary Aim To determine neuropsychological tests likely to predict cognitive decline. Methods A sample of nonconverters (n = 106) was compared with those who declined in cognitive status (n = 24). Significant univariate logistic regression prediction models were used to create multivariate logistic regression models to predict decline based on initial neuropsychological testing. Results Rey–Osterrieth Complex Figure Test (RCFT) Retention predicted conversion to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) while baseline Buschke Delay predicted conversion to Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Due to group sample size differences, additional analyses were conducted using a subsample of demographically matched nonconverters. Analyses indicated RCFT Retention predicted conversion to MCI and AD, and Buschke Delay predicted conversion to AD. Conclusion Results suggest RCFT Retention and Buschke Delay may be useful in predicting cognitive decline. PMID:26107318

Examining the stress-burnout relationship: the mediating role of negative thoughts

PubMed Central

Chyi, Theresa; Hsu, Ya-Wen; Chan, Shi-Wei; Wang, Erica T.W.

2017-01-01

Background Using Smith’s (1986) cognitive-affective model of athletic burnout as a guiding framework, the purpose of this study was to examine the relationships among athletes’ stress in life, negative thoughts, and the mediating role of negative thoughts on the stress-burnout relationship. Methods A total of 300 college student-athletes (males = 174; females = 126, Mage = 20.43 y, SD = 1.68) completed the College Student Athlete’s Life Stress Scale (CSALSS; Lu et al., 2012), the Automatic Thoughts Questionnaire (ATQ; Hollon & Kendall, 1980), and the Athlete Burnout Questionnaire (ABQ; Raedeke & Smith, 2001). Results Correlational analyses found that two types of life stress and four types of negative thoughts correlated with burnout. Additionally, hierarchical regression analyses found that four types of negative thoughts partially mediated the stress-burnout relationship. Discussion We concluded that an athlete’s negative thoughts play a pivotal role in predicting athletes’ stress-burnout relationship. Future study may examine how irrational cognition influences athletes’ motivation and psychological well-being. PMID:29302397

Examining the stress-burnout relationship: the mediating role of negative thoughts.

PubMed

Chang, Ko-Hsin; Lu, Frank J H; Chyi, Theresa; Hsu, Ya-Wen; Chan, Shi-Wei; Wang, Erica T W

2017-01-01

Using Smith's (1986) cognitive-affective model of athletic burnout as a guiding framework, the purpose of this study was to examine the relationships among athletes' stress in life, negative thoughts, and the mediating role of negative thoughts on the stress-burnout relationship. A total of 300 college student-athletes (males = 174; females = 126, M age  = 20.43 y, SD = 1.68) completed the College Student Athlete's Life Stress Scale (CSALSS; Lu et al., 2012), the Automatic Thoughts Questionnaire (ATQ; Hollon & Kendall, 1980), and the Athlete Burnout Questionnaire (ABQ; Raedeke & Smith, 2001). Correlational analyses found that two types of life stress and four types of negative thoughts correlated with burnout. Additionally, hierarchical regression analyses found that four types of negative thoughts partially mediated the stress-burnout relationship. We concluded that an athlete's negative thoughts play a pivotal role in predicting athletes' stress-burnout relationship. Future study may examine how irrational cognition influences athletes' motivation and psychological well-being.

Comparing auditory filter bandwidths, spectral ripple modulation detection, spectral ripple discrimination, and speech recognition: Normal and impaired hearinga)

PubMed Central

Davies-Venn, Evelyn; Nelson, Peggy; Souza, Pamela

2015-01-01

Some listeners with hearing loss show poor speech recognition scores in spite of using amplification that optimizes audibility. Beyond audibility, studies have suggested that suprathreshold abilities such as spectral and temporal processing may explain differences in amplified speech recognition scores. A variety of different methods has been used to measure spectral processing. However, the relationship between spectral processing and speech recognition is still inconclusive. This study evaluated the relationship between spectral processing and speech recognition in listeners with normal hearing and with hearing loss. Narrowband spectral resolution was assessed using auditory filter bandwidths estimated from simultaneous notched-noise masking. Broadband spectral processing was measured using the spectral ripple discrimination (SRD) task and the spectral ripple depth detection (SMD) task. Three different measures were used to assess unamplified and amplified speech recognition in quiet and noise. Stepwise multiple linear regression revealed that SMD at 2.0 cycles per octave (cpo) significantly predicted speech scores for amplified and unamplified speech in quiet and noise. Commonality analyses revealed that SMD at 2.0 cpo combined with SRD and equivalent rectangular bandwidth measures to explain most of the variance captured by the regression model. Results suggest that SMD and SRD may be promising clinical tools for diagnostic evaluation and predicting amplification outcomes. PMID:26233047

Comparing auditory filter bandwidths, spectral ripple modulation detection, spectral ripple discrimination, and speech recognition: Normal and impaired hearing.

PubMed

Davies-Venn, Evelyn; Nelson, Peggy; Souza, Pamela

2015-07-01

Some listeners with hearing loss show poor speech recognition scores in spite of using amplification that optimizes audibility. Beyond audibility, studies have suggested that suprathreshold abilities such as spectral and temporal processing may explain differences in amplified speech recognition scores. A variety of different methods has been used to measure spectral processing. However, the relationship between spectral processing and speech recognition is still inconclusive. This study evaluated the relationship between spectral processing and speech recognition in listeners with normal hearing and with hearing loss. Narrowband spectral resolution was assessed using auditory filter bandwidths estimated from simultaneous notched-noise masking. Broadband spectral processing was measured using the spectral ripple discrimination (SRD) task and the spectral ripple depth detection (SMD) task. Three different measures were used to assess unamplified and amplified speech recognition in quiet and noise. Stepwise multiple linear regression revealed that SMD at 2.0 cycles per octave (cpo) significantly predicted speech scores for amplified and unamplified speech in quiet and noise. Commonality analyses revealed that SMD at 2.0 cpo combined with SRD and equivalent rectangular bandwidth measures to explain most of the variance captured by the regression model. Results suggest that SMD and SRD may be promising clinical tools for diagnostic evaluation and predicting amplification outcomes.

Cultural bases for self-evaluation: seeing oneself positively in different cultural contexts.

PubMed

Becker, Maja; Vignoles, Vivian L; Owe, Ellinor; Easterbrook, Matthew J; Brown, Rupert; Smith, Peter B; Bond, Michael Harris; Regalia, Camillo; Manzi, Claudia; Brambilla, Maria; Aldhafri, Said; González, Roberto; Carrasco, Diego; Paz Cadena, Maria; Lay, Siugmin; Schweiger Gallo, Inge; Torres, Ana; Camino, Leoncio; Özgen, Emre; Güner, Ülkü E; Yamakoğlu, Nil; Silveira Lemos, Flávia Cristina; Trujillo, Elvia Vargas; Balanta, Paola; Macapagal, Ma Elizabeth J; Cristina Ferreira, M; Herman, Ginette; de Sauvage, Isabelle; Bourguignon, David; Wang, Qian; Fülöp, Márta; Harb, Charles; Chybicka, Aneta; Mekonnen, Kassahun Habtamu; Martin, Mariana; Nizharadze, George; Gavreliuc, Alin; Buitendach, Johanna; Valk, Aune; Koller, Silvia H

2014-05-01

Several theories propose that self-esteem, or positive self-regard, results from fulfilling the value priorities of one's surrounding culture. Yet, surprisingly little evidence exists for this assertion, and theories differ about whether individuals must personally endorse the value priorities involved. We compared the influence of four bases for self-evaluation (controlling one's life, doing one's duty, benefitting others, achieving social status) among 4,852 adolescents across 20 cultural samples, using an implicit, within-person measurement technique to avoid cultural response biases. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses showed that participants generally derived feelings of self-esteem from all four bases, but especially from those that were most consistent with the value priorities of others in their cultural context. Multilevel analyses confirmed that the bases of positive self-regard are sustained collectively: They are predictably moderated by culturally normative values but show little systematic variation with personally endorsed values.

Prediction Models for Assessing Lycopene in Open-Field Cultivated Tomatoes by Means of a Portable Reflectance Sensor: Cultivar and Growing-Season Effects.

PubMed

Ciaccheri, Leonardo; Tuccio, Lorenza; Mencaglia, Andrea A; Sikorska-Zimny, Kalina; Hallmann, Ewelina; Kowalski, Artur; G Mignani, Anna; Kaniszewski, Stanislaw; Agati, Giovanni

2018-05-09

Reflectance spectroscopy represents a useful tool for the nondestructive assessment of tomato lycopene, even in the field. For this reason, a compact, low-cost, light emitting diode-based sensor has been developed to measure reflectance in the 400-750 nm spectral range. It was calibrated against wet chemistry and evaluated by partial least squares (PLS) regression analyses. The lycopene prediction models were defined for two open-field cultivated red-tomato varieties: the processing oblong tomatoes of the cv. Calista (average weight: 76 g) and the fresh-consumption round tomatoes of the cv. Volna (average weight: 130 g), over a period of two consecutive years. The lycopene prediction models were dependent on both cultivar and season. The lycopene root mean square error of prediction produced by the 2014 single-cultivar calibrations validated on the 2015 samples was large (33 mg kg -1 ) in the Calista tomatoes and acceptable (9.5 mg kg -1 ) in the Volna tomatoes. A more general bicultivar and biyear model could still explain almost 80% of the predicted lycopene variance, with a relative error in red tomatoes of less than 20%. In 2016, the in-field applications of the multiseasonal prediction models, built with the 2014 and 2015 data, showed significant ( P < 0.001) differences in the average lycopene estimated in the crop on two sampling dates that were 20 days apart: on August 19 and September 7, 2016, the lycopene was 98.9 ± 9.3 and 92.2 ± 10.8 mg kg -1 FW for cv. Calista and 54.6 ± 13.2 and 60.8 ± 6.8 mg kg -1 FW for cv. Volna. The sensor was also able to monitor the temporal evolution of lycopene accumulation on the very same fruits attached to the plants. These results indicated that a simple, compact reflectance device and PLS analysis could provide adequately precise and robust (through-seasons) models for the nondestructive assessment of lycopene in whole tomatoes. This technique could guarantee tomatoes with the highest nutraceutical value from the production, during storage and distribution, and finally to consumers.

Predicting Women’s Utilization of Primary Care Mental Health Services in Mexico City

PubMed Central

Mendoza, Karla; Ulloa, Arianna; Saavedra, Nayelhi; Galván, Jorge; Berenzon, Shoshana

2016-01-01

Objective: To analyze factors associated with and predicting Mexican women seeking primary care mental health services (PCMHS) and provide suggestions to increase PCMHS utilization. Method: We administered a questionnaire to (N = 456) female patients in Mexico City primary care clinics. We conducted chi-square analyses of seeking PCMHS and sociodemographic variables, perceptions of and experiences with PCMHS. Our results and literature review guided our logistic regression model. Results: Women referred to a mental health provider (MHP; odds ratio [OR] = 10.81, 95% CI = 3.59-32.51), whose coping mechanisms included talking to a MHP (OR = 5.53, 95% CI = 2.10-14.53), whose primary worry is loneliness (OR = 8.15, 95% CI = 1.20-55.10), and those who follow doctor’s orders; were more likely to seek PCMHS (OR = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.09-0.92). Conclusions: Primary care providers play a fundamental role in women’s decisions to seek PCMHS. Proper referrals to PCMHS should be encouraged. PMID:27856559

Multicontextual correlates of adolescent leisure-time physical activity.

PubMed

Graham, Dan J; Wall, Melanie M; Larson, Nicole; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2014-06-01

Adolescent moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is influenced by many factors. MVPA-promotion interventions would fare better if these multiple determinants were better understood. To simultaneously assess overall and relative contributions of factors from personal, family, friend, school, and neighborhood contexts to adolescent MVPA. It was hypothesized that (1) key correlates would emerge in each context and (2) factors from more- versus less-proximal contexts would relate more strongly to MVPA. Students in grades 6-12 (n=2,793; mean age=14.4 [SD=2.0] years; 53% girls) were recruited from 20 Minnesota public schools in 2009-2010 to participate in the Eating and Activity in Teens 2010 study. Regression analyses conducted in 2013 examined factors related to weekly MVPA. Data were collected from adolescent participants, their parents and friends, school teachers and administrators, and GIS sources. Fifty multicontextual factors explained 25% of MVPA variance for boys and 27% for girls. Personal factors (e.g., self-efficacy) were most predictive of MVPA, followed by social factors (e.g., support for PA); environmental factors (e.g., access to PA resources) were least predictive of adolescent PA. Gender differences emerged for several predictors (e.g., in mutually adjusted analyses, MVPA among girls, but not boys, related positively to distance to trails and MVPA among female friends and fathers, and related negatively to perceived barriers). Stronger linkages exist between adolescent MVPA and more-proximal (personal, family, and friend) factors compared to more-distal (school and neighborhood) factors, suggesting the importance of working with adolescents, their families, and friends to promote PA. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Infrequent condom use with casual partners among New Zealand gay and bisexual men.

PubMed

Saxton, Peter J; Dickson, Nigel P; Hughes, Anthony J; Ludlam, Adrian H

2015-12-04

To identify predictors of non-condom use among gay and bisexual men (GBM) in New Zealand with casual male partners. We analysed anonymous self-completed data from GBM who participated in the communitybased Gay Auckland Periodic Sex Survey (GAPSS) and Internet-based Gay Online Sex Survey (GOSS), undertaken in 2014. Infrequent condom use was defined as not using condoms "always" or "almost always" during anal intercourse in the prior six months. Of the 1,912 GBM reporting anal intercourse with a casual partner, 27.2% reported infrequent condom use. Being recruited from Internet dating sites, Pacific ethnicity, having over 20 recent male partners, infrequent condom use with a current regular partner, or being HIV-positive were independently predictive of infrequent condom use. Conversely, being older, having a tertiary degree, using a condom at first anal intercourse, being exclusively receptive with a casual partner/s, and seeing condoms promoted through multiple channels predicted frequent condom use. Attitudes to condoms and safe sex were strongly predictive of actual condom use. Social marketing should target the modifiable predictors of condom use, such as attitudes to safe sex. Interventions also need to engage successfully with GBM reporting non-modifiable traits such as HIV-positive GBM.

Personal and lifestyle characteristics predictive of the consumption of fast foods in Australia.

PubMed

Mohr, Philip; Wilson, Carlene; Dunn, Kirsten; Brindal, Emily; Wittert, Gary

2007-12-01

To identify key predictors of fast-food consumption from a range of demographic, attitudinal, personality and lifestyle variables. We analysed data from a nationwide survey (n = 20 527) conducted in Australia by Nielsen Media Research. Items assessing frequency of fast-food consumption at (1) eat in and (2) take away were regressed onto 12 demographic, seven media consumption, and 23 psychological and lifestyle variables, the latter derived from factor analysis of responses to 107 attitudinal and behavioural items. Stepwise multiple regression analyses explained 29.6% of the variance for frequency of take-away and 9.6% of the variance for frequency of eat-in consumption of fast foods. Predictors of more frequent consumption of fast food at take away (and, to a lesser extent, eat in) included lower age - especially under 45 years, relative indifference to health consequences of behaviour, greater household income, more exposure to advertising, greater receptiveness to advertising, lesser allocation of time for eating, and greater allocation of time to home entertainment. There were no effects for occupational status or education level. The effects for age suggest that fast-food take-away consumption is associated with a general cultural shift in eating practices; individual differences in attitudinal and lifestyle characteristics constitute additional, cumulative, predictive factors. The role of advertising and the reasons for the lesser explanatory value of the eat-in models are important targets for further research.

Managerial Quality and Risk of Depressive Disorders Among Danish Eldercare Workers

PubMed Central

Rugulies, Reiner; Jakobsen, Louise M.; Madsen, Ida E.H.; Borg, Vilhelm; Carneiro, Isabella G.; Aust, Birgit

2018-01-01

Objective: To examine whether low managerial quality predicts risk of depressive disorders. Methods: Using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analyses we examined the prospective association of individual-level and workplace-mean managerial quality with onset of depressive disorders among 5244 eldercare workers from 274 workplaces during 20 months follow-up. Results: Low managerial quality predicted onset of depressive disorders in both the individual-level (odds ratio [OR] = 1.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.25 to 2.76) and the workplace-mean analysis (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.06 to 2.07). Low individual-level managerial quality predicted onset of depressive disorders when workplace-mean managerial quality was high (OR = 3.10, 95% CI = 1.71 to 5.62) but not when it was low (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.61 to 1.87). This interaction was statistically significant (P = 0.03). Conclusions: Both low individual-level and low workplace-mean managerial quality predicted risk of depressive disorders. The association was strongest among individuals reporting low managerial quality at workplaces with high workplace-mean managerial quality. PMID:29023339

[Application of Competing Risks Model in Predicting Smoking Relapse Following Ischemic Stroke].

PubMed

Hou, Li-Sha; Li, Ji-Jie; Du, Xu-Dong; Yan, Pei-Jing; Zhu, Cai-Rong

2017-07-01

To determine factors associated with smoking relapse in men who survived from their first stroke. Data were collected through face to face interviews with stroke patients in the hospital, and then repeated every three months via telephone over the period from 2010 to 2014. Kaplan-Meier method and competing risk model were adopted to estimate and predict smoking relapse rates. The Kaplan-Meier method estimated a higher relapse rate than the competing risk model. The four-year relapse rate was 43.1% after adjustment of competing risk. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoking outside of home and workplace (such as bars and restaurants) ( P =0.01), single ( P <0.01), and prior history of smoking at least 20 cigarettes per day ( P =0.02) were significant predictors of smoking relapse. When competing risks exist, competing risks model should be used in data analyses. Smoking interventions should give priorities to those without a spouse and those with a heavy smoking history. Smoking ban in public settings can reduce smoking relapse in stroke patients.

Influence of Goal Contents on Exercise Addiction: Analysing the Mediating Effect of Passion for Exercise

PubMed Central

Sicilia, Álvaro; Alcaraz-Ibáñez, Manuel; Lirola, María-Jesús; Burgueño, Rafael

2017-01-01

Abstract Based on the self-determination theory (Deci and Ryan, 1985, 2000), the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of exercise goal contents on exercise addiction, taking into account the mediating effects of passion for exercise. A total of 384 university students (284 men and 100 women; Mage = 20.31, SD = 3.10) completed a questionnaire that measured exercise frequency and intensity, exercise goal contents (e.g. intrinsic: social affiliation, health management, skill development; extrinsic: image and social recognition), passion for exercise (e.g. harmonious and obsessive), and exercise addiction. After controlling the exercise frequency and intensity effects, results showed that goal contents did not directly predict exercise addiction. However, mediation analysis showed that goal contents predicted addiction through passion for exercise. These results support a motivational sequence in which extrinsic versus intrinsic goals influence exercise addiction because such goals are positively associated with obsessive passion for exercise and negatively associated with harmonious passion. PMID:29134055

Influence of Goal Contents on Exercise Addiction: Analysing the Mediating Effect of Passion for Exercise.

PubMed

Sicilia, Álvaro; Alcaraz-Ibáñez, Manuel; Lirola, María-Jesús; Burgueño, Rafael

2017-10-01

Based on the self-determination theory (Deci and Ryan, 1985, 2000), the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of exercise goal contents on exercise addiction, taking into account the mediating effects of passion for exercise. A total of 384 university students (284 men and 100 women; M age = 20.31, SD = 3.10) completed a questionnaire that measured exercise frequency and intensity, exercise goal contents (e.g. intrinsic: social affiliation, health management, skill development; extrinsic: image and social recognition), passion for exercise (e.g. harmonious and obsessive), and exercise addiction. After controlling the exercise frequency and intensity effects, results showed that goal contents did not directly predict exercise addiction. However, mediation analysis showed that goal contents predicted addiction through passion for exercise. These results support a motivational sequence in which extrinsic versus intrinsic goals influence exercise addiction because such goals are positively associated with obsessive passion for exercise and negatively associated with harmonious passion.

Detonation Performance Analyses for Recent Energetic Molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stiel, Leonard; Samuels, Philip; Spangler, Kimberly; Iwaniuk, Daniel; Cornell, Rodger; Baker, Ernest

2017-06-01

Detonation performance analyses were conducted for a number of evolving and potential high explosive materials. The calculations were completed for theoretical maximum densities of the explosives using the Jaguar thermo-chemical equation of state computer programs for performance evaluations and JWL/JWLB equations of state parameterizations. A number of recently synthesized materials were investigated for performance characterizations and comparisons to existing explosives, including TNT, RDX, HMX, and Cl-20. The analytic cylinder model was utilized to establish cylinder and Gurney velocities as functions of the radial expansions of the cylinder for each explosive. The densities and heats of formulation utilized in the calculations are primarily experimental values from Picatinny Arsenal and other sources. Several of the new materials considered were predicted to have enhanced detonation characteristics compared to conventional explosives. In order to confirm the accuracy of the Jaguar and analytic cylinder model results, available experimental detonation and Gurney velocities for representative energetic molecules and their formulations were compared with the corresponding calculated values. Close agreement was obtained with most of the data. Presently at NATO.

Use of Multiple Metabolic and Genetic Markers to Improve the Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes: the EPIC-Potsdam Study

PubMed Central

Schulze, Matthias B.; Weikert, Cornelia; Pischon, Tobias; Bergmann, Manuela M.; Al-Hasani, Hadi; Schleicher, Erwin; Fritsche, Andreas; Häring, Hans-Ulrich; Boeing, Heiner; Joost, Hans-Georg

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE We investigated whether metabolic biomarkers and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) improve diabetes prediction beyond age, anthropometry, and lifestyle risk factors. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A case-cohort study within a prospective study was designed. We randomly selected a subcohort (n = 2,500) from 26,444 participants, of whom 1,962 were diabetes free at baseline. Of the 801 incident type 2 diabetes cases identified in the cohort during 7 years of follow-up, 579 remained for analyses after exclusions. Prediction models were compared by receiver operatoring characteristic (ROC) curve and integrated discrimination improvement. RESULTS Case-control discrimination by the lifestyle characteristics (ROC-AUC: 0.8465) improved with plasma glucose (ROC-AUC: 0.8672, P < 0.001) and A1C (ROC-AUC: 0.8859, P < 0.001). ROC-AUC further improved with HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, γ-glutamyltransferase, and alanine aminotransferase (0.9000, P = 0.002). Twenty SNPs did not improve discrimination beyond these characteristics (P = 0.69). CONCLUSIONS Metabolic markers, but not genotyping for 20 diabetogenic SNPs, improve discrimination of incident type 2 diabetes beyond lifestyle risk factors. PMID:19720844

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A.; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R. D.; de Boer, Willem F.; Stillman, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick’s swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments. PMID:26862895

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R D; de Boer, Willem F; Stillman, Richard A

2016-01-01

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments.

Late-Life Drinking Problems: The Predictive Roles of Drinking Level vs. Drinking Pattern.

PubMed

Holahan, Charles J; Brennan, Penny L; Schutte, Kathleen K; Holahan, Carole K; Hixon, J Gregory; Moos, Rudolf H

2017-05-01

Research on late-middle-aged and older adults has focused primarily on average level of alcohol consumption, overlooking variability in underlying drinking patterns. The purpose of the present study was to examine the independent contributions of an episodic heavy pattern of drinking versus a high average level of drinking as prospective predictors of drinking problems. The sample comprised 1,107 adults ages 55-65 years at baseline. Alcohol consumption was assessed at baseline, and drinking problems were indexed across 20 years. We used prospective negative binomial regression analyses controlling for baseline drinking problems, as well as for demographic and health factors, to predict the number of drinking problems at each of four follow-up waves (1, 4, 10, and 20 years). Across waves where the effects were significant, a high average level of drinking (coefficients of 1.56, 95% CI [1.24, 1.95]; 1.48, 95% CI [1.11, 1.98]; and 1.85, 95% CI [1.23, 2.79] at 1, 10, and 20 years) and an episodic heavy pattern of drinking (coefficients of 1.61, 95% CI [1.30, 1.99]; 1.61, 95% CI [1.28, 2.03]; and 1.43, 95% CI [1.08, 1.90] at 1, 4, and 10 years) each independently increased the number of drinking problems by more than 50%. Information based only on average consumption underestimates the risk of drinking problems among older adults. Both a high average level of drinking and an episodic heavy pattern of drinking pose prospective risks of later drinking problems among older adults.

Calponin-Like Chd64 Is Partly Disordered

PubMed Central

Jakób, Michał; Szpotkowski, Kamil; Wojtas, Magdalena; Rymarczyk, Grzegorz; Ożyhar, Andrzej

2014-01-01

20-hydroxyecdysone (20E) and juvenile hormone (JH) signaling pathways interact to regulate insect development. Recently, two proteins, a calponin-like Chd64 and immunophilin FKBP39 have been found to play a pivotal role in the cross-talk between 20E and JH, although the molecular basis of interaction remains unknown. The aim of this work was to identify the structural features that would provide understanding of the role of Chd64 in multiple and dynamic complex that cross-links the signaling pathways. Here, we demonstrate the results of in silico and in vitro analyses of the structural organization of Chd64 from Drosophila melanogaster and its homologue from Tribolium castaneum. Computational analysis predicted the existence of disordered regions on the termini of both proteins, while the central region appeared to be globular, probably corresponding to the calponin homology (CH) domain. In vitro analyses of the hydrodynamic properties of the proteins from analytical size-exclusion chromatography and analytical ultracentrifugation revealed that DmChd64 and TcChd64 had an asymmetrical, elongated shape, which was further confirmed by small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). The Kratky plot indicated disorderness in both Chd64 proteins, which could possibly be on the protein termini and which would give rise to specific hydrodynamic properties. Disordered tails are often involved in diverse interactions. Therefore, it is highly possible that there are intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) on both termini of the Chd64 proteins that serve as platforms for multiple interaction with various partners and constitute the foundation for their regulatory function. PMID:24805353

Estimation of fat-free mass in Asian neonates using bioelectrical impedance analysis

PubMed Central

Tint, Mya-Thway; Ward, Leigh C; Soh, Shu E; Aris, Izzuddin M; Chinnadurai, Amutha; Saw, Seang Mei; Gluckman, Peter D; Godfrey, Keith M; Chong, Yap-Seng; Kramer, Michael S; Yap, Fabian; Lingwood, Barbara; Lee, Yung Seng

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were to develop and validate a prediction equation of fat-free mass (FFM) based on bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and anthropometry using air displacement plethysmography (ADP) as a reference in Asian neonates and to test the applicability of the prediction equations in independent Western cohort. A total of 173 neonates at birth and 140 at week-2 of age were included. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to develop the prediction equations in a two-third randomly selected subset and validated on the remaining one-third subset at each time point and in an independent Queensland cohort. FFM measured by ADP was the dependent variable and anthropometric measures, sex and impedance quotient (L2/R50) were independent variables in the model. Accuracy of prediction equations were assessed using intra-class correlation and Bland-Altman analyses. L2/R50 was the significant predictor of FFM at week-2 but not at birth. Compared to the model using weight, sex and length, including L2/R50 slightly improved the prediction with a bias of 0.01kg with 2SD limits of agreement (LOA) (0.18, −0.20). Prediction explained 88.9% of variation but not beyond that of anthropometry. Applying these equations to Queensland cohort provided similar performance at the appropriate age. However, when the Queensland equations were applied to our cohort, the bias increased slightly but with similar LOA. BIA appears to have limited use in predicting FFM in the first few weeks of life compared to simple anthropometry in Asian populations. There is a need for population and age appropriate FFM prediction equations. PMID:26856420

Estimation of fat-free mass in Asian neonates using bioelectrical impedance analysis.

PubMed

Tint, Mya-Thway; Ward, Leigh C; Soh, Shu E; Aris, Izzuddin M; Chinnadurai, Amutha; Saw, Seang Mei; Gluckman, Peter D; Godfrey, Keith M; Chong, Yap-Seng; Kramer, Michael S; Yap, Fabian; Lingwood, Barbara; Lee, Yung Seng

2016-03-28

The aims of this study were to develop and validate a prediction equation of fat-free mass (FFM) based on bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and anthropometry using air-displacement plethysmography (ADP) as a reference in Asian neonates and to test the applicability of the prediction equations in an independent Western cohort. A total of 173 neonates at birth and 140 at two weeks of age were included. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to develop the prediction equations in a two-third randomly selected subset and validated on the remaining one-third subset at each time point and in an independent Queensland cohort. FFM measured by ADP was the dependent variable, and anthropometric measures, sex and impedance quotient (L2/R50) were independent variables in the model. Accuracy of prediction equations was assessed using intra-class correlation and Bland-Altman analyses. L2/R50 was the significant predictor of FFM at week two but not at birth. Compared with the model using weight, sex and length, including L2/R50 slightly improved the prediction with a bias of 0·01 kg with 2 sd limits of agreement (LOA) (0·18, -0·20). Prediction explained 88·9 % of variation but not beyond that of anthropometry. Applying these equations to the Queensland cohort provided similar performance at the appropriate age. However, when the Queensland equations were applied to our cohort, the bias increased slightly but with similar LOA. BIA appears to have limited use in predicting FFM in the first few weeks of life compared with simple anthropometry in Asian populations. There is a need for population- and age-appropriate FFM prediction equations.

Progressive taxation, income inequality, and happiness.

PubMed

Oishi, Shigehiro; Kushlev, Kostadin; Schimmack, Ulrich

2018-01-01

Income inequality has become one of the more widely debated social issues today. The current article explores the role of progressive taxation in income inequality and happiness. Using historical data in the United States from 1962 to 2014, we found that income inequality was substantially smaller in years when the income tax was more progressive (i.e., a higher tax rate for higher income brackets), even when controlling for variables like stock market performance and unemployment rate. Time lag analyses further showed that higher progressive taxation predicted increasingly lower income inequality up to 5 years later. Data from the General Social Survey (1972-2014; N = 59,599) with U.S. residents (hereafter referred to as "Americans") showed that during years with higher progressive taxation rates, less wealthy Americans-those in the lowest 40% of the income distribution-tended to be happier, whereas the richest 20% were not significantly less happy. Mediational analyses confirmed that the association of progressive taxation with the happiness of less wealthy Americans can be explained by lower income inequality in years with higher progressive taxation. A separate sample of Americans polled online (N = 373) correctly predicted the positive association between progressive taxation and the happiness of poorer Americans but incorrectly expected a strong negative association between progressive taxation and the happiness of richer Americans. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Seasonality and Trend Forecasting of Tuberculosis Prevalence Data in Eastern Cape, South Africa, Using a Hybrid Model.

PubMed

Azeez, Adeboye; Obaromi, Davies; Odeyemi, Akinwumi; Ndege, James; Muntabayi, Ruffin

2016-07-26

Tuberculosis (TB) is a deadly infectious disease caused by Mycobacteria tuberculosis. Tuberculosis as a chronic and highly infectious disease is prevalent in almost every part of the globe. More than 95% of TB mortality occurs in low/middle income countries. In 2014, approximately 10 million people were diagnosed with active TB and two million died from the disease. In this study, our aim is to compare the predictive powers of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and neural network auto-regression (SARIMA-NNAR) models of TB incidence and analyse its seasonality in South Africa. TB incidence cases data from January 2010 to December 2015 were extracted from the Eastern Cape Health facility report of the electronic Tuberculosis Register (ERT.Net). A SARIMA model and a combined model of SARIMA model and a neural network auto-regression (SARIMA-NNAR) model were used in analysing and predicting the TB data from 2010 to 2015. Simulation performance parameters of mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean percent error (MPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were applied to assess the better performance of prediction between the models. Though practically, both models could predict TB incidence, the combined model displayed better performance. For the combined model, the Akaike information criterion (AIC), second-order AIC (AICc) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) are 288.56, 308.31 and 299.09 respectively, which were lower than the SARIMA model with corresponding values of 329.02, 327.20 and 341.99, respectively. The seasonality trend of TB incidence was forecast to have a slightly increased seasonal TB incidence trend from the SARIMA-NNAR model compared to the single model. The combined model indicated a better TB incidence forecasting with a lower AICc. The model also indicates the need for resolute intervention to reduce infectious disease transmission with co-infection with HIV and other concomitant diseases, and also at festival peak periods.

Serum Levels of M2BPGi as Short-Term Predictors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Patients.

PubMed

Liu, Jessica; Hu, Hui-Han; Lee, Mei-Hsuan; Korenaga, Masaaki; Jen, Chin-Lan; Batrla-Utermann, Richard; Lu, Sheng-Nan; Wang, Li-Yu; Mizokami, Masashi; Chen, Chien-Jen; Yang, Hwai-I

2017-10-30

This study examines the role of M2BPGi, a novel seromarker for chronic hepatitis, in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among untreated chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. In this nested case-control study, 1070 samples were assayed for M2BPGi, including 357 samples from HCC cases, and 713 samples from non-HCC controls, collected at various times throughout follow-up. HCC case samples were stratified according to years prior to diagnosis. Associations between M2BPGi and HCC were examined with multivariate logistic regression. M2BPGi, α-fetoprotein (AFP), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels were significant independent short-term predictors of HCC, while M2BPGi was insignificant in long-term analyses. Compared to M2BPGi levels <1.0 cut-off index (COI), those with levels ≥2.0 COI had multivariate odds ratios (95% CI) for HCC of 7.40 (2.40-22.78), 6.46 (2.58-16.18), and 2.24 (0.97-5.15), respectively, for prediction of HCC within 1-2, 2-5, and ≥5 years. Higher proportions of individuals had M2BPGi levels ≥2.0 COI in samples closer to HCC diagnosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for models with M2BPGi, AFP, and HBsAg levels predicting HCC within 1-2, 2-5, and >5 years were 0.84, 0.81, and 0.75. M2BPGi is a strong and independent short-term predictor of HCC in CHB patients.

Expensive Egos: Narcissistic Males Have Higher Cortisol

PubMed Central

Reinhard, David A.; Konrath, Sara H.; Lopez, William D.; Cameron, Heather G.

2012-01-01

Background Narcissism is characterized by grandiosity, low empathy, and entitlement. There has been limited research regarding the hormonal correlates of narcissism, despite the potential health implications. This study examined the role of participant narcissism and sex on basal cortisol concentrations in an undergraduate population. Methods and Findings Participants were 106 undergraduate students (79 females, 27 males, mean age 20.1 years) from one Midwestern and one Southwestern American university. Narcissism was assessed using the Narcissistic Personality Inventory, and basal cortisol concentrations were collected from saliva samples in a laboratory setting. Regression analyses examined the effect of narcissism and sex on cortisol (log). There were no sex differences in basal cortisol, F(1,97) = .20, p = .65, and narcissism scores, F(1,97) = .00, p = .99. Stepwise linear regression models of sex and narcissism and their interaction predicting cortisol concentrations showed no main effects when including covariates, but a significant interaction, β = .27, p = .04. Narcissism was not related to cortisol in females, but significantly predicted cortisol in males. Examining the effect of unhealthy versus healthy narcissism on cortisol found that unhealthy narcissism was marginally related to cortisol in females, β = .27, p = .06, but significantly predicted higher basal cortisol in males, β = .72, p = .01, even when controlling for potential confounds. No relationship was found between sex, narcissism, or their interaction on self-reported stress. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the HPA axis is chronically activated in males with unhealthy narcissism. This constant activation of the HPA axis may have important health implications. PMID:22292062

Is Baseline Cardiac Autonomic Modulation Related to Performance and Physiological Responses Following a Supramaximal Judo Test?

PubMed Central

Blasco-Lafarga, Cristina; Martínez-Navarro, Ignacio; Mateo-March, Manuel

2013-01-01

Little research exists concerning Heart Rate (HR) Variability (HRV) following supramaximal efforts focused on upper-body explosive strength-endurance. Since they may be very demanding, it seems of interest to analyse the relationship among performance, lactate and HR dynamics (i.e. HR, HRV and complexity) following them; as well as to know how baseline cardiac autonomic modulation mediates these relationships. The present study aimed to analyse associations between baseline and post-exercise HR dynamics following a supramaximal Judo test, and their relationship with lactate, in a sample of 22 highly-trained male judoists (20.70±4.56 years). A large association between the increase in HR from resting to exercise condition and performance suggests that individuals exerted a greater sympathetic response to achieve a better performance (Rating of Perceived Exertion: 20; post-exercise peak lactate: 11.57±2.24 mmol/L; 95.76±4.13 % of age-predicted HRmax). Athletes with higher vagal modulation and lower sympathetic modulation at rest achieved both a significant larger ∆HR and a faster post-exercise lactate removal. A enhanced resting parasympathetic modulation might be therefore related to a further usage of autonomic resources and a better immediate metabolic recovery during supramaximal exertions. Furthermore, analyses of variance displayed a persistent increase in α1 and a decrease in lnRMSSD along the 15 min of recovery, which are indicative of a diminished vagal modulation together with a sympathovagal balance leaning to sympathetic domination. Eventually, time-domain indices (lnRMSSD) showed no lactate correlations, while nonlinear indices (α1 and lnSaEn) appeared to be moderate to strongly correlated with it, thus pointing to shared mechanisms between neuroautonomic and metabolic regulation. PMID:24205273

A Prospective Cohort Study of Absconsion Incidents in Forensic Psychiatric Settings: Can We Identify Those at High-Risk?

PubMed Central

Cullen, Alexis E.; Jewell, Amelia; Tully, John; Coghlan, Suzanne; Dean, Kimberlie; Fahy, Tom

2015-01-01

Background Incidents of absconsion in forensic psychiatric units can have potentially serious consequences, yet surprisingly little is known about the characteristics of patients who abscond from these settings. The few previous studies conducted to date have employed retrospective designs, and no attempt has been made to develop an empirically-derived risk assessment scale. In this prospective study, we aimed to identify predictors of absconsion over a two-year period and investigate the feasibility of developing a brief risk assessment scale. Methods The study examined a representative sample of 135 patients treated in forensic medium- and low-secure wards. At baseline, demographic, clinical, treatment-related, and offending/behavioural factors were ascertained from electronic medical records and the treating teams. Incidents of absconsion (i.e., failure to return from leave, incidents of escape, and absconding whilst on escorted leave) were assessed at a two-year follow-up. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the strongest predictors of absconsion which were then weighted according to their ability to discriminate absconders and non-absconders. The predictive utility of a brief risk assessment scale based on these weighted items was evaluated using receiver operator characteristics (ROC). Results During the two-year follow-up period, 27 patients (20%) absconded, accounting for 56 separate incidents. In multivariate analyses, four factors relating to offending and behaviour emerged as the strongest predictors of absconsion: history of sexual offending, previous absconsion, recent inpatient verbal aggression, and recent inpatient substance use. The weighted risk scale derived from these factors had moderate-to-good predictive accuracy (ROC area under the curve: 0.80; sensitivity: 067; specificity: 0.71), a high negative predictive value (0.91), but a low positive predictive value (0.34). Conclusion Potentially-targetable recent behaviours, such as inpatient verbal aggression and substance use, are strong predictors of absconsion in forensic settings; the absence of these factors may enable clinical teams to identify unnecessarily restricted low-risk individuals. PMID:26401653

Implications of improved Higgs mass calculations for supersymmetric models.

PubMed

Buchmueller, O; Dolan, M J; Ellis, J; Hahn, T; Heinemeyer, S; Hollik, W; Marrouche, J; Olive, K A; Rzehak, H; de Vries, K J; Weiglein, G

We discuss the allowed parameter spaces of supersymmetric scenarios in light of improved Higgs mass predictions provided by FeynHiggs 2.10.0. The Higgs mass predictions combine Feynman-diagrammatic results with a resummation of leading and subleading logarithmic corrections from the stop/top sector, which yield a significant improvement in the region of large stop masses. Scans in the pMSSM parameter space show that, for given values of the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters, the new logarithmic contributions beyond the two-loop order implemented in FeynHiggs tend to give larger values of the light CP-even Higgs mass, [Formula: see text], in the region of large stop masses than previous predictions that were based on a fixed-order Feynman-diagrammatic result, though the differences are generally consistent with the previous estimates of theoretical uncertainties. We re-analyse the parameter spaces of the CMSSM, NUHM1 and NUHM2, taking into account also the constraints from CMS and LHCb measurements of [Formula: see text]and ATLAS searches for [Formula: see text] events using 20/fb of LHC data at 8 TeV. Within the CMSSM, the Higgs mass constraint disfavours [Formula: see text], though not in the NUHM1 or NUHM2.

Education, Genetic Ancestry, and Blood Pressure in African Americans and Whites

PubMed Central

Gravlee, Clarence C.; Mulligan, Connie J.

2012-01-01

Objectives. We assessed the relative roles of education and genetic ancestry in predicting blood pressure (BP) within African Americans and explored the association between education and BP across racial groups. Methods. We used t tests and linear regressions to examine the associations of genetic ancestry, estimated from a genomewide set of autosomal markers, and education with BP variation among African Americans in the Family Blood Pressure Program. We also performed linear regressions in self-identified African Americans and Whites to explore the association of education with BP across racial groups. Results. Education, but not genetic ancestry, significantly predicted BP variation in the African American subsample (b = −0.51 mm Hg per year additional education; P = .001). Although education was inversely associated with BP in the total population, within-group analyses showed that education remained a significant predictor of BP only among the African Americans. We found a significant interaction (b = 3.20; P = .006) between education and self-identified race in predicting BP. Conclusions. Racial disparities in BP may be better explained by differences in education than by genetic ancestry. Future studies of ancestry and disease should include measures of the social environment. PMID:22698014

Education, genetic ancestry, and blood pressure in African Americans and Whites.

PubMed

Non, Amy L; Gravlee, Clarence C; Mulligan, Connie J

2012-08-01

We assessed the relative roles of education and genetic ancestry in predicting blood pressure (BP) within African Americans and explored the association between education and BP across racial groups. We used t tests and linear regressions to examine the associations of genetic ancestry, estimated from a genomewide set of autosomal markers, and education with BP variation among African Americans in the Family Blood Pressure Program. We also performed linear regressions in self-identified African Americans and Whites to explore the association of education with BP across racial groups. Education, but not genetic ancestry, significantly predicted BP variation in the African American subsample (b=-0.51 mm Hg per year additional education; P=.001). Although education was inversely associated with BP in the total population, within-group analyses showed that education remained a significant predictor of BP only among the African Americans. We found a significant interaction (b=3.20; P=.006) between education and self-identified race in predicting BP. Racial disparities in BP may be better explained by differences in education than by genetic ancestry. Future studies of ancestry and disease should include measures of the social environment.

Cognitive Impairment Precedes and Predicts Functional Impairment in Mild Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Liu-Seifert, Hong; Siemers, Eric; Price, Karen; Han, Baoguang; Selzler, Katherine J; Henley, David; Sundell, Karen; Aisen, Paul; Cummings, Jeffrey; Raskin, Joel; Mohs, Richard

2015-01-01

The temporal relationship of cognitive deficit and functional impairment in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is not well characterized. Recent analyses suggest cognitive decline predicts subsequent functional decline throughout AD progression. To better understand the relationship between cognitive and functional decline in mild AD using autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) panel analyses in several clinical trials. Data included placebo patients with mild AD pooled from two multicenter, double-blind, Phase 3 solanezumab (EXPEDITION/2) or semagacestat (IDENTITY/2) studies, and from AD patients participating in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Cognitive and functional outcomes were assessed using AD Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog), AD Cooperative Study-Activities of Daily Living instrumental subscale (ADCS-iADL), or Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ), respectively. ARCL panel analyses evaluated relationships between cognitive and functional impairment over time. In EXPEDITION, ARCL panel analyses demonstrated cognitive scores significantly predicted future functional impairment at 5 of 6 time points, while functional scores predicted subsequent cognitive scores in only 1 of 6 time points. Data from IDENTITY and ADNI programs yielded consistent results whereby cognition predicted subsequent function, but not vice-versa. Analyses from three databases indicated cognitive decline precedes and predicts subsequent functional decline in mild AD dementia, consistent with previously proposed hypotheses, and corroborate recent publications using similar methodologies. Cognitive impairment may be used as a predictor of future functional impairment in mild AD dementia and can be considered a critical target for prevention strategies to limit future functional decline in the dementia process.

Thermal Analysis of the Advanced Technology Large Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) 8 Meter Primary Mirror

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hornsby, Linda; Stahl, H. Philip; Hopkins, Randall C.

2010-01-01

The Advanced Technology Large Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) preliminary design concept consists of an 8 meter diameter monolithic primary mirror enclosed in an insulated, optical tube with stray light baffles and a sunshade. ATLAST will be placed in orbit about the Sun-Earth L2 and will experience constant exposure to the sun. The insulation on the optical tube and sunshade serve to cold bias the telescope which helps to minimize thermal gradients. The primary mirror will be maintained at 280K with an active thermal control system. The geometric model of the primary mirror, optical tube, sun baffles, and sunshade was developed using Thermal Desktop(R) SINDA/FLUINT(R) was used for the thermal analysis and the radiation environment was analyzed using RADCAD(R). A XX node model was executed in order to characterize the static performance and thermal stability of the mirror during maneuvers. This is important because long exposure observations, such as extra-solar terrestrial planet finding and characterization, require a very stable observatory wave front. Steady state thermal analyses served to predict mirror temperatures for several different sun angles. Transient analyses were performed in order to predict thermal time constant of the primary mirror for a 20 degree slew or 30 degree roll maneuver. This paper describes the thermal model and provides details of the geometry, thermo-optical properties, and the environment which influences the thermal performance. All assumptions that were used in the analysis are also documented. Parametric analyses are summarized for design parameters including primary mirror coatings and sunshade configuration. Estimates of mirror heater power requirements are reported. The thermal model demonstrates results for the primary mirror heated from the back side and edges using a heater system with multiple independently controlled zones.

Beliefs about the effects of social sharing of emotion in alexithymia.

PubMed

Martínez Sánchez, Francisco; Blanco Larrieux, María Luisa; Páez Rovira, Darío; Costa Ball, Daniel

2013-01-01

Emotional events are followed by recurrent talking about the event (Social Sharing of Emotion, SSE). Several factors that can account for variations in beliefs about SSE were examined: alexithymia, age and sex among two sample groups, Spanish (n = 388) and Uruguayan (n = 537). Both samples completed the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20) and the Beliefs about Social Sharing of Emotion Questionnaire (BSEQ). Results indicated that alexithymia was negatively related to beliefs about SSE. Low alexithymia was associated with higher agreement with positive intrapersonal effects of SSE and disagreement with benefits of non-expression or inhibition, and beliefs in positive interpersonal effect of social sharing were unrelated to alexithymia. Cultural and gender differences were found regarding beliefs about SSE. Regression analyses suggest that alexithymia significantly predicted beliefs about SSE. The pattern of results suggests that more collectivist and traditional cultures, such as the Uruguayan, attach less value to SSE. Results and implications are discussed.

Immunohistochemical expression profiles of mucin antigens in salivary gland mucoepidermoid carcinoma: MUC4- and MUC6-negative expression predicts a shortened survival in the early postoperative phase.

PubMed

Honjo, Kie; Hiraki, Tsubasa; Higashi, Michiyo; Noguchi, Hirotsugu; Nomoto, Mitsuharu; Yoshimura, Takuya; Batra, Surinder K; Yonezawa, Suguru; Semba, Ichiro; Nakamura, Norifumi; Tanimoto, Akihide; Yamada, Sohsuke

2018-02-01

In mucoepidermoid carcinoma (MEC), the most common salivary gland carcinoma, there is a lack of novel prognostic markers, but post-operative early recurrence strongly affects the clinical course and a poor outcome. It is critical to predict which MEC patients are prone to develop recurrence/metastases. Mucins play pivotal roles in influencing cancer biology, thus affecting cell differentiation, adhesion, carcinoma invasion, aggressiveness and/or metastatic potential. Our aim is to elucidate the significance of expression profiles for mucins, particularly MUC4 and MUC6, and their correlations with various clinicopathological features and recurrence in salivary gland MECs. We performed immunohistochemical analyses on patients with surgically resected primary MEC using antibodies against mucin core proteins MUC4/8G7 and MUC6/CLH5 in 73 paraffin-embedded samples. Recurrence was noted in 15 of 73 (20.5%) patients. MUC4 or MUC6 expression was considered to be negative when <30% or 0% of the MEC cells showed positive staining, respectively. MUC4- and/or MUC6-negative expression respectively and variably showed a significant relationship to pathological tumor high-grade, the presence of lymphovascular invasion, lymph node metastasis and/or tumor-related death. In addition, MUC4 showed significantly negative co-expression with MUC6. Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed that not only single MUC4/6-negative expression but also the combination of both predicted significantly shorter disease-free and disease-specific survivals in MECs, especially within the first two years postoperatively. Therefore, each mucin plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of MEC progression. The detection of MUC4 and/or MUC6 might be a powerful parameter in the clinical management of MECs in the early postsurgical phase.

Utilization of waste heat in trucks for increased fuel economy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leising, C. J.; Purohit, G. P.; Degrey, S. P.; Finegold, J. G.

1978-01-01

Improvements in fuel economy for a broad spectrum of truck engines and waste heat utilization concepts are evaluated and compared. The engines considered are the diesel, spark ignition, gas turbine, and Stirling. The waste heat utilization concepts include preheating, regeneration, turbocharging, turbocompounding, and Rankine engine compounding. Predictions were based on fuel-air cycle analyses, computer simulation, and engine test data. The results reveal that diesel driving cycle performance can be increased by 20% through increased turbocharging, turbocompounding, and Rankine engine compounding. The Rankine engine compounding provides about three times as much improvement as turbocompounding but also costs about three times as much. Performance for either is approximately doubled if applied to an adiabatic diesel.

Assessing the reliability, predictive and construct validity of historical, clinical and risk management-20 (HCR-20) in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

PubMed

Sada, Andrea; Robles-García, Rebeca; Martínez-López, Nicolás; Hernández-Ramírez, Rafael; Tovilla-Zarate, Carlos-Alfonso; López-Munguía, Fernando; Suárez-Alvarez, Enrique; Ayala, Xochitl; Fresán, Ana

2016-08-01

Assessing dangerousness to gauge the likelihood of future violent behaviour has become an integral part of clinical mental health practice in forensic and non-forensic psychiatric settings, one of the most effective instruments for this being the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management-20 (HCR-20). To examine the HCR-20 factor structure in Mexican psychiatric inpatients and to obtain its predictive validity and reliability for use in this population. In total, 225 patients diagnosed with psychotic, affective or personality disorders were included. The HCR-20 was applied at hospital admission and violent behaviours were assessed during psychiatric hospitalization using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). Construct validity, predictive validity and internal consistency were determined. Violent behaviour remains more severe in patients classified in the high-risk group during hospitalization. Fifteen items displayed adequate communalities in the original designated domains of the HCR-20 and internal consistency of the instruments was high. The HCR-20 is a suitable instrument for predicting violence risk in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

Pathological response of locally advanced rectal cancer to preoperative chemotherapy without pelvic irradiation.

PubMed

Bensignor, T; Brouquet, A; Dariane, C; Thirot-Bidault, A; Lazure, T; Julié, C; Nordlinger, B; Penna, C; Benoist, S

2015-06-01

Pathological response to chemotherapy without pelvic irradiation is not well defined in rectal cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the objective pathological response to preoperative chemotherapy without pelvic irradiation in middle or low locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Between 2008 and 2013, 22 patients with middle or low LARC (T3/4 and/or N+ and circumferential resection margin < 2 mm) and synchronous metastatic disease or a contraindication to pelvic irradiation underwent rectal resection after preoperative chemotherapy. The pathological response of rectal tumour was analysed according to the Rödel tumour regression grading (TRG) system. Predictive factors of objective pathological response (TRG 2-4) were analysed. All patients underwent rectal surgery after a median of six cycles of preoperative chemotherapy. Of these, 20 (91%) had sphincter saving surgery and an R0 resection. Twelve (55%) patients had an objective pathological response (TRG 2-4), including one complete response. Poor response (TRG 0-1) to chemotherapy was noted in 10 (45%) patients. In univariate analyses, none of the factors examined was found to be predictive of an objective pathological response to chemotherapy. At a median follow-up of 37.2 months, none of the 22 patients experienced local recurrence. Of the 19 patients with Stage IV rectal cancer, 15 (79%) had liver surgery with curative intent. Preoperative chemotherapy without pelvic irradiation is associated with objective pathological response and adequate local control in selected patients with LARC. Further prospective controlled studies will address the question of whether it can be used as a valuable alternative to radiochemotherapy in LARC. Colorectal Disease © 2014 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

The development of a model to predict the effects of worker and task factors on foot placements in manual material handling tasks.

PubMed

Wagner, David W; Reed, Matthew P; Chaffin, Don B

2010-11-01

Accurate prediction of foot placements in relation to hand locations during manual materials handling tasks is critical for prospective biomechanical analysis. To address this need, the effects of lifting task conditions and anthropometric variables on foot placements were studied in a laboratory experiment. In total, 20 men and women performed two-handed object transfers that required them to walk to a shelf, lift an object from the shelf at waist height and carry the object to a variety of locations. Five different changes in the direction of progression following the object pickup were used, ranging from 45° to 180° relative to the approach direction. Object weights of 1.0 kg, 4.5 kg, 13.6 kg were used. Whole-body motions were recorded using a 3-D optical retro-reflective marker-based camera system. A new parametric system for describing foot placements, the Quantitative Transition Classification System, was developed to facilitate the parameterisation of foot placement data. Foot placements chosen by the subjects during the transfer tasks appeared to facilitate a change in the whole-body direction of progression, in addition to aiding in performing the lift. Further analysis revealed that five different stepping behaviours accounted for 71% of the stepping patterns observed. More specifically, the most frequently observed behaviour revealed that the orientation of the lead foot during the actual lifting task was primarily affected by the amount of turn angle required after the lift (R(2) = 0.53). One surprising result was that the object mass (scaled by participant body mass) was not found to significantly affect any of the individual step placement parameters. Regression models were developed to predict the most prevalent step placements and are included in this paper to facilitate more accurate human motion simulations and ergonomics analyses of manual material lifting tasks. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: This study proposes a method for parameterising the steps (foot placements) associated with manual material handling tasks. The influence of task conditions and subject anthropometry on the foot placements of the most frequently observed stepping pattern during a laboratory study is discussed. For prospective postural analyses conducted using digital human models, accurate prediction of the foot placements is critical to realistic postural analyses and improved biomechanical job evaluations.

Human Factors Risk Analyses of a Doffing Protocol for Ebola-Level Personal Protective Equipment: Mapping Errors to Contamination.

PubMed

Mumma, Joel M; Durso, Francis T; Ferguson, Ashley N; Gipson, Christina L; Casanova, Lisa; Erukunuakpor, Kimberly; Kraft, Colleen S; Walsh, Victoria L; Zimring, Craig; DuBose, Jennifer; Jacob, Jesse T

2018-03-05

Doffing protocols for personal protective equipment (PPE) are critical for keeping healthcare workers (HCWs) safe during care of patients with Ebola virus disease. We assessed the relationship between errors and self-contamination during doffing. Eleven HCWs experienced with doffing Ebola-level PPE participated in simulations in which HCWs donned PPE marked with surrogate viruses (ɸ6 and MS2), completed a clinical task, and were assessed for contamination after doffing. Simulations were video recorded, and a failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analyses were performed to identify errors during doffing, quantify their risk (risk index), and predict contamination data. Fifty-one types of errors were identified, many having the potential to spread contamination. Hand hygiene and removing the powered air purifying respirator (PAPR) hood had the highest total risk indexes (111 and 70, respectively) and number of types of errors (9 and 13, respectively). ɸ6 was detected on 10% of scrubs and the fault tree predicted a 10.4% contamination rate, likely occurring when the PAPR hood inadvertently contacted scrubs during removal. MS2 was detected on 10% of hands, 20% of scrubs, and 70% of inner gloves and the predicted rates were 7.3%, 19.4%, 73.4%, respectively. Fault trees for MS2 and ɸ6 contamination suggested similar pathways. Ebola-level PPE can both protect and put HCWs at risk for self-contamination throughout the doffing process, even among experienced HCWs doffing with a trained observer. Human factors methodologies can identify error-prone steps, delineate the relationship between errors and self-contamination, and suggest remediation strategies.

Groundwater Variability in a Sandstone Catchment and Linkages with Large-scale Climatic Circulatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, D. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Bradley, C.

2015-12-01

Groundwater is a crucial water resource that sustains river ecosystems and provides public water supply. Furthermore, during periods of prolonged high rainfall, groundwater-dominated catchments can be subject to protracted flooding. Climate change and associated projected increases in the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes have implications for groundwater levels. This study builds on previous research undertaken on a Chalk catchment by investigating groundwater variability in a UK sandstone catchment: the Tern in Shropshire. In contrast to the Chalk, sandstone is characterised by a more lagged response to precipitation inputs; and, as such, it is important to determine the groundwater behaviour and its links with the large-scale climatic circulation to improve process understanding of recharge, groundwater level and river flow responses to hydroclimatological drivers. Precipitation, river discharge and groundwater levels for borehole sites in the Tern basin over 1974-2010 are analysed as the target variables; and we use monthly gridded reanalysis data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR). First, groundwater variability is evaluated and associations with precipitation / discharge are explored using monthly concurrent and lagged correlation analyses. Second, gridded 20CR reanalysis data are used in composite and correlation analyses to identify the regions of strongest climate-groundwater association. Results show that reasonably strong climate-groundwater connections exist in the Tern basin, with a several months lag. These lags are associated primarily with the time taken for recharge waters to percolate through to the groundwater table. The uncovered patterns improve knowledge of large-scale climate forcing of groundwater variability and may provide a basis to inform seasonal prediction of groundwater levels, which would be useful for strategic water resource planning.

Cascading effects of predator activity on tick-borne disease risk.

PubMed

Hofmeester, Tim R; Jansen, Patrick A; Wijnen, Hendrikus J; Coipan, Elena C; Fonville, Manoj; Prins, Herbert H T; Sprong, Hein; van Wieren, Sipke E

2017-07-26

Predators and competitors of vertebrates can in theory reduce the density of infected nymphs (DIN)-an often-used measure of tick-borne disease risk-by lowering the density of reservoir-competent hosts and/or the tick burden on reservoir-competent hosts. We investigated this possible indirect effect of predators by comparing data from 20 forest plots across the Netherlands that varied in predator abundance. In each plot, we measured the density of questing Ixodes ricinus nymphs (DON), DIN for three pathogens, rodent density, the tick burden on rodents and the activity of mammalian predators. We analysed whether rodent density and tick burden on rodents were correlated with predator activity, and how rodent density and tick burden predicted DON and DIN for the three pathogens. We found that larval burden on two rodent species decreased with activity of two predator species, while DON and DIN for all three pathogens increased with larval burden on rodents, as predicted. Path analyses supported an indirect negative correlation of activity of both predator species with DON and DIN. Our results suggest that predators can indeed lower the number of ticks feeding on reservoir-competent hosts, which implies that changes in predator abundance may have cascading effects on tick-borne disease risk. © 2017 The Authors.

Predictive distributions were developed for the extent of heterogeneity in meta-analyses of continuous outcome data.

PubMed

Rhodes, Kirsty M; Turner, Rebecca M; Higgins, Julian P T

2015-01-01

Estimation of between-study heterogeneity is problematic in small meta-analyses. Bayesian meta-analysis is beneficial because it allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity. To facilitate this, we provide empirical evidence on the likely heterogeneity between studies in meta-analyses relating to specific research settings. Our analyses included 6,492 continuous-outcome meta-analyses within the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. We investigated the influence of meta-analysis settings on heterogeneity by modeling study data from all meta-analyses on the standardized mean difference scale. Meta-analysis setting was described according to outcome type, intervention comparison type, and medical area. Predictive distributions for between-study variance expected in future meta-analyses were obtained, which can be used directly as informative priors. Among outcome types, heterogeneity was found to be lowest in meta-analyses of obstetric outcomes. Among intervention comparison types, heterogeneity was lowest in meta-analyses comparing two pharmacologic interventions. Predictive distributions are reported for different settings. In two example meta-analyses, incorporating external evidence led to a more precise heterogeneity estimate. Heterogeneity was influenced by meta-analysis characteristics. Informative priors for between-study variance were derived for each specific setting. Our analyses thus assist the incorporation of realistic prior information into meta-analyses including few studies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ambient temperature and FIT performance in the Emilia-Romagna colorectal cancer screening programme.

PubMed

De Girolamo, Gianfranco; Goldoni, Carlo A; Corradini, Rossella; Giuliani, Orietta; Falcini, Fabio; Sassoli De'Bianchi, Priscilla; Naldoni, Carlo; Zauli Sajani, Stefano

2016-12-01

To assess the impact of ambient temperature on faecal immunochemical test (FIT) performance in the colorectal cancer screening programme of Emilia-Romagna (Italy). A population-based retrospective cohort study on data from 2005 to 2011. Positive rate, detection rate, and positive predictive value rate for cancers and adenomas, and incidence rate of interval cancers after negative tests were analysed using Poisson regression models. In addition to ambient temperature, gender, age, screening history, and Local Health Unit were also considered. In 1,521,819 tests analysed, the probability of a positive result decreased linearly with increasing temperature. Point estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals were estimated for six temperature classes (<5, 5 |-10, 10 |-15, 15 |-20, 20|-25 and ≥25℃), and referred to the 5|-10℃ class. The positive rate ratio was significantly related to temperature increase: 0.99 (0.97-1.02), 1, 0.98 (0.96-1.00), 0.96 (0.94-0.99), 0.93 (0.91-0.96), 0.92 (0.89-0.95). A linear trend was also evident for advanced adenoma detection rate ratio: 1.00 (0.96-1.04), 1, 0.98 (0.93-1.02), 0.96 (0.92-1.00), 0.92 (0.88-0.96), 0.94 (0.88-1.01). The effect was less linear, but still important, for cancer detection rates: 0.95 (0.85-1.06), 1, 1.00 (0.90-1.10), 0.94 (0.85-1.05), 0.81 (0.72-0.92), 0.93 (0.80-1.09). No association or linear trend was found for positive predictive values or risk of interval cancer, despite an excess of +16% in the highest temperature class for interval cancer. Ambient temperatures can affect screening performance. Continued monitoring is needed to verify the effect of introducing FIT tubes with a new buffer, which should guarantee a higher stability of haemoglobin. © The Author(s) 2016.

Age and Improved Attention Predict Work Attainment in Combined Compensatory Cognitive Training and Supported Employment for People With Severe Mental Illness.

PubMed

Puig, Olga; Thomas, Kelsey R; Twamley, Elizabeth W

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine whether cognitive change and age predicted work outcome in the context of supported employment (SE) and compensatory cognitive training (CCT) in severe mental illness. Forty unemployed outpatients receiving SE (7 young [20-35 years], 15 middle-aged [36-50 years], and 18 older [51-66 years] patients) completed cognitive assessments at baseline and after 12 weeks of CCT. Logistic regression analyses showed that improvement in attention/vigilance significantly predicted work attainment (B = 2.35, SE = 1.16, p = 0.043). Young and older participants were more likely to obtain work than middle-aged participants (B = 4.03, SE = 1.43, p = 0.005; B = 2.16, SE = 0.93, p = 0.021, respectively). Improved attention and age group (young and old) were associated with better work outcomes after SE + CCT. Improving attention may be an important target for improving work outcome in severe mental illness. Middle-aged individuals may need additional support to return to work.

GIANT 2.0: genome-scale integrated analysis of gene networks in tissues.

PubMed

Wong, Aaron K; Krishnan, Arjun; Troyanskaya, Olga G

2018-05-25

GIANT2 (Genome-wide Integrated Analysis of gene Networks in Tissues) is an interactive web server that enables biomedical researchers to analyze their proteins and pathways of interest and generate hypotheses in the context of genome-scale functional maps of human tissues. The precise actions of genes are frequently dependent on their tissue context, yet direct assay of tissue-specific protein function and interactions remains infeasible in many normal human tissues and cell-types. With GIANT2, researchers can explore predicted tissue-specific functional roles of genes and reveal changes in those roles across tissues, all through interactive multi-network visualizations and analyses. Additionally, the NetWAS approach available through the server uses tissue-specific/cell-type networks predicted by GIANT2 to re-prioritize statistical associations from GWAS studies and identify disease-associated genes. GIANT2 predicts tissue-specific interactions by integrating diverse functional genomics data from now over 61 400 experiments for 283 diverse tissues and cell-types. GIANT2 does not require any registration or installation and is freely available for use at http://giant-v2.princeton.edu.

39 CFR 3050.20 - Compliance and other analyses in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... PERSONNEL PERIODIC REPORTING § 3050.20 Compliance and other analyses in the Postal Service's section 3652 report. (a) The Postal Service's section 3652 report shall include an analysis of the information that it... 39 Postal Service 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Compliance and other analyses in the Postal...

39 CFR 3050.20 - Compliance and other analyses in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... PERSONNEL PERIODIC REPORTING § 3050.20 Compliance and other analyses in the Postal Service's section 3652 report. (a) The Postal Service's section 3652 report shall include an analysis of the information that it... 39 Postal Service 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Compliance and other analyses in the Postal...

Parents' Readiness to Change Affects BMI Reduction Outcomes in Adolescents with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

PubMed Central

Jakubowski, Karen P.; Black, Jessica J.; El Nokali, Nermeen E.; Belendiuk, Katherine A.; Hannon, Tamara S.; Arslanian, Silva A.; Rofey, Dana L.

2012-01-01

Evidence supports the importance of parental involvement for youth's ability to manage weight. This study utilized the stages of change (SOC) model to assess readiness to change weight control behaviors as well as the predictive value of SOC in determining BMI outcomes in forty adolescent-parent dyads (mean adolescent age = 15 ± 1.84 (13–20), BMI = 37 ± 8.60; 70% white) participating in a weight management intervention for adolescent females with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Adolescents and parents completed a questionnaire assessing their SOC for the following four weight control domains: increasing dietary portion control, increasing fruit and vegetable consumption, decreasing dietary fat, and increasing usual physical activity. Linear regression analyses indicated that adolescent change in total SOC from baseline to treatment completion was not predictive of adolescent change in BMI from baseline to treatment completion. However, parent change in total SOC from baseline to treatment completion was predictive of adolescent change in BMI, (t(24) = 2.15, p = 0.043). Findings support future research which carefully assesses adolescent and parent SOC and potentially develops interventions targeting adolescent and parental readiness to adopt healthy lifestyle goals. PMID:22970350

Prediction of enzyme activity with neural network models based on electronic and geometrical features of substrates.

PubMed

Szaleniec, Maciej

2012-01-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are introduced as robust and versatile tools in quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling. Their application to the modeling of enzyme reactivity is discussed, along with methodological issues. Methods of input variable selection, optimization of network internal structure, data set division and model validation are discussed. The application of ANNs in the modeling of enzyme activity over the last 20 years is briefly recounted. The discussed methodology is exemplified by the case of ethylbenzene dehydrogenase (EBDH). Intelligent Problem Solver and genetic algorithms are applied for input vector selection, whereas k-means clustering is used to partition the data into training and test cases. The obtained models exhibit high correlation between the predicted and experimental values (R(2) > 0.9). Sensitivity analyses and study of the response curves are used as tools for the physicochemical interpretation of the models in terms of the EBDH reaction mechanism. Neural networks are shown to be a versatile tool for the construction of robust QSAR models that can be applied to a range of aspects important in drug design and the prediction of biological activity.

Hydrostatic Stress Effect On the Yield Behavior of Inconel 100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, Phillip A.; Wilson, Christopher D.

2002-01-01

Classical metal plasticity theory assumes that hydrostatic stress has no effect on the yield and postyield behavior of metals. Recent reexaminations of classical theory have revealed a significant effect of hydrostatic stress on the yield behavior of notched geometries. New experiments and nonlinear finite element analyses (FEA) of Inconel 100 (IN 100) equal-arm bend and double-edge notch tension (DENT) test specimens have revealed the effect of internal hydrostatic tensile stresses on yielding. Nonlinear FEA using the von Mises (yielding is independent of hydrostatic stress) and the Drucker-Prager (yielding is linearly dependent on hydrostatic stress) yield functions was performed. In all test cases, the von Mises constitutive model, which is independent of hydrostatic pressure, overestimated the load for a given displacement or strain. Considering the failure displacements or strains, the Drucker-Prager FEMs predicted loads that were 3% to 5% lower than the von Mises values. For the failure loads, the Drucker Prager FEMs predicted strains that were 20% to 35% greater than the von Mises values. The Drucker-Prager yield function seems to more accurately predict the overall specimen response of geometries with significant internal hydrostatic stress influence.

Accuracy of the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Equation in a Large Contemporary, Multiethnic Population.

PubMed

Rana, Jamal S; Tabada, Grace H; Solomon, Matthew D; Lo, Joan C; Jaffe, Marc G; Sung, Sue Hee; Ballantyne, Christie M; Go, Alan S

2016-05-10

The accuracy of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort Risk Equation for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in contemporary and ethnically diverse populations is not well understood. The goal of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the 2013 ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Risk Equation within a large, multiethnic population in clinical care. The target population for consideration of cholesterol-lowering therapy in a large, integrated health care delivery system population was identified in 2008 and followed up through 2013. The main analyses excluded those with known ASCVD, diabetes mellitus, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels <70 or ≥190 mg/dl, prior lipid-lowering therapy use, or incomplete 5-year follow-up. Patient characteristics were obtained from electronic medical records, and ASCVD events were ascertained by using validated algorithms for hospitalization databases and death certificates. We compared predicted versus observed 5-year ASCVD risk, overall and according to sex and race/ethnicity. We additionally examined predicted versus observed risk in patients with diabetes mellitus. Among 307,591 eligible adults without diabetes between 40 and 75 years of age, 22,283 were black, 52,917 were Asian/Pacific Islander, and 18,745 were Hispanic. We observed 2,061 ASCVD events during 1,515,142 person-years. In each 5-year predicted ASCVD risk category, observed 5-year ASCVD risk was substantially lower: 0.20% for predicted risk <2.50%; 0.65% for predicted risk 2.50% to <3.75%; 0.90% for predicted risk 3.75% to <5.00%; and 1.85% for predicted risk ≥5.00% (C statistic: 0.74). Similar ASCVD risk overestimation and poor calibration with moderate discrimination (C statistic: 0.68 to 0.74) were observed in sex, racial/ethnic, and socioeconomic status subgroups, and in sensitivity analyses among patients receiving statins for primary prevention. Calibration among 4,242 eligible adults with diabetes was improved, but discrimination was worse (C statistic: 0.64). In a large, contemporary "real-world" population, the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Risk Equation substantially overestimated actual 5-year risk in adults without diabetes, overall and across sociodemographic subgroups. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hybrid deployable support truss designs for LDR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hedgepeth, J.

1988-01-01

Concepts for a 20-meter diameter Large Deployable Reflector (LDR) deployable truss backup structure, and analytical predictions of its structural characteristics are discussed. The concept shown is referred to as the SIXPAC; It is a combination of the PACTRUSS concept and a single-fold beam, which would make up the desired backup structure. One advantage of retaining the PACTRUSS concept is its packaging density and its capability for synchronous deployment. Various 2-meter hexagonal panel arrangements are possible for this Hybrid PACTRUSS structure depending on the panel-to-structure attachment strategies used. Static analyses of the SIXPAC using various assumptions for truss designs and panel masses of 10 kg sq meters were performed to predict the tip displacement of the structure when supported at the center. The tip displacement ranged from 0.20 to 0.44 mm without the panel mass, and from 0.9 to 3.9 mm with the panel mass (in a 1-g field). The data indicate that the structure can be adequately ground tested to validate its required performance in space, assuming the required performance in space is approximately 100 microns. The static displacement at the tip of the structure when subjected to an angular acceleration of 0.001 rad/sec squared were estimated to range from 0.8 to 7.5 microns, depending on the type of truss elements.

The role of liquid-based cytology and ancillary techniques in pleural and pericardic effusions: an institutional experience.

PubMed

Rossi, Esther Diana; Bizzarro, Tommaso; Schmitt, Fernando; Longatto-Filho, Adhemar

2015-04-01

Fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) of serous membrane effusions may fulfil a challenging role in the diagnostic analysis of both primary and metastatic disease. From this perspective, liquid-based cytology (LBC) represents a feasible and reliable method for empowering the performance of ancillary techniques (ie, immunocytochemistry and molecular testing) with high diagnostic accuracy. In total, 3171 LBC pleural and pericardic effusions were appraised between January 2000 and December 2013. They were classified as negative for malignancy (NM), suspicious for malignancy (SM), or positive for malignancy (PM). The cytologic diagnoses included 2721 NM effusions (2505 pleural and 216 pericardic), 104 SM effusions (93 pleural and 11 pericardic), and 346 PM effusions (321 pleural and 25 pericardic). The malignant pleural series included 76 unknown malignancies (36 SM and 40 PM effusions), 174 metastatic lesions (85 SM and 89 PM effusions), 14 lymphomas (3 SM and 11 PM effusions), 16 mesotheliomas (5 SM and 11 SM effusions), and 3 myelomas (all SM effusions). The malignant pericardic category included 20 unknown malignancies (5 SM and 15 PM effusions), 15 metastatic lesions (1 SM and 14 PM effusions), and 1 lymphoma (1 PM effusion). There were 411 conclusive immunocytochemical analyses and 47 molecular analyses, and the authors documented 88% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 98% diagnostic accuracy, 98% negative predictive value, and 100% positive predictive value for FNAC. FNAC represents a primary diagnostic tool for effusions and a reliable approach with which to determine the correct follow-up. Furthermore, LBC is useful for ancillary techniques, such as immunocytochemistry and molecular analysis, with feasible diagnostic and predictive utility. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Risk Factors for Incident Peripheral Arterial Disease in Type 2 Diabetes: Results From the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in Type 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) Trial

PubMed Central

Althouse, Andrew D.; Abbott, J. Dawn; Forker, Alan D.; Bertolet, Marnie; Barinas-Mitchell, Emma; Thurston, Rebecca C.; Mulukutla, Suresh; Aboyans, Victor; Brooks, Maria Mori

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE The aim of this article was to define risk factors for incidence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in a large cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), overall and within the context of differing glycemic control strategies. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in Type 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) randomized controlled trial assigned participants to insulin-sensitizing (IS) therapy versus insulin-providing (IP) therapy. A total of 1,479 participants with normal ankle-brachial index (ABI) at study entry were eligible for analysis. PAD outcomes included new ABI ≤0.9 with decrease at least 0.1 from baseline, lower extremity revascularization, or lower extremity amputation. Baseline risk factors within the overall cohort and time-varying risk factors within each assigned glycemic control arm were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS During an average 4.6 years of follow-up, 303 participants (20.5%) experienced an incident case of PAD. Age, sex, race, and baseline smoking status were all significantly associated with incident PAD in the BARI 2D cohort. Additional baseline risk factors included pulse pressure, HbA1c, and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (P < 0.05 for each). In stratified analyses of time-varying covariates, changes in BMI, LDL, HDL, systolic blood pressure, and pulse pressure were most predictive among IS patients, while change in HbA1c was most predictive among IP patients. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with T2DM, traditional cardiovascular risk factors were the main predictors of incident PAD cases. Stratified analyses showed different risk factors were predictive for patients treated with IS medications versus those treated with IP medications. PMID:24595631

Risk factors for incident peripheral arterial disease in type 2 diabetes: results from the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in type 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) Trial.

PubMed

Althouse, Andrew D; Abbott, J Dawn; Forker, Alan D; Bertolet, Marnie; Barinas-Mitchell, Emma; Thurston, Rebecca C; Mulukutla, Suresh; Aboyans, Victor; Brooks, Maria Mori

2014-01-01

The aim of this article was to define risk factors for incidence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in a large cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), overall and within the context of differing glycemic control strategies. The Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in Type 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) randomized controlled trial assigned participants to insulin-sensitizing (IS) therapy versus insulin-providing (IP) therapy. A total of 1,479 participants with normal ankle-brachial index (ABI) at study entry were eligible for analysis. PAD outcomes included new ABI ≤0.9 with decrease at least 0.1 from baseline, lower extremity revascularization, or lower extremity amputation. Baseline risk factors within the overall cohort and time-varying risk factors within each assigned glycemic control arm were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. During an average 4.6 years of follow-up, 303 participants (20.5%) experienced an incident case of PAD. Age, sex, race, and baseline smoking status were all significantly associated with incident PAD in the BARI 2D cohort. Additional baseline risk factors included pulse pressure, HbA1c, and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (P < 0.05 for each). In stratified analyses of time-varying covariates, changes in BMI, LDL, HDL, systolic blood pressure, and pulse pressure were most predictive among IS patients, while change in HbA1c was most predictive among IP patients. Among patients with T2DM, traditional cardiovascular risk factors were the main predictors of incident PAD cases. Stratified analyses showed different risk factors were predictive for patients treated with IS medications versus those treated with IP medications.

Advanced interatrial block predicts new-onset atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke in patients with heart failure: The "Bayes' Syndrome-HF" study.

PubMed

Escobar-Robledo, Luis Alberto; Bayés-de-Luna, Antoni; Lupón, Josep; Baranchuk, Adrian; Moliner, Pedro; Martínez-Sellés, Manuel; Zamora, Elisabet; de Antonio, Marta; Domingo, Mar; Cediel, Germán; Núñez, Julio; Santiago-Vacas, Evelyn; Bayés-Genís, Antoni

2018-05-18

Advanced interatrial block (IAB) is characterized by a prolonged (≥120 ms) and bimodal P wave in the inferior leads. The association between advanced IAB and atrial fibrillation (AF) is known as "Bayes' Syndrome", and there is scarce information about it in heart failure (HF). We examined the prevalence of IAB and whether advanced IAB could predict new-onset AF and/or stroke in HF patients. The prospective observational "Bayes' Syndrome-HF" study included consecutive outpatients with chronic HF. The primary endpoints were new-onset AF, ischemic stroke, and the composite of both. A secondary endpoint included all-cause death alone or in combination with the primary endpoint. Comprehensive multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed. Among 1050 consecutive patients, 536 (51.0%) were in sinus rhythm, 464 with a measurable P wave are the focus of this study. Two-hundred and sixty patients (56.0%) had normal atrial conduction, 95 (20.5%) partial IAB, and 109 (23.5%) advanced IAB. During a mean follow-up of 4.5 ± 2.1 years, 235 patients experienced all-cause death, new-onset AF, or stroke. In multivariable comprehensive Cox regression analyses, advanced IAB was associated with new-onset AF (HR 2.71 [1.61-4.56], P < 0.001), ischemic stroke (HR 3.02 [1.07-8.53], P = 0.04), and the composite of both (HR 2.42 [1.41-4.15], P < 0.001). In patients with HF advanced IAB predicts new-onset AF and ischemic stroke. Future studies must assess whether anticoagulant treatment in Bayes' Syndrome leads to better outcomes in HF. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapid Drinking is Associated with Increases in Driving-Related Risk-Taking

PubMed Central

Bernosky-Smith, Kimberly A.; Aston, Elizabeth R.; Liguori, Anthony

2014-01-01

Objective The rate of alcohol drinking has been shown to predict impairment on cognitive and behavioral tasks. The current study assessed the influence of speed of alcohol consumption within a laboratory-administered binge on self-reported attitudes toward driving and simulated driving ability. Method Forty moderate drinkers (20 female, 20 male) were recruited from the local community via advertisements for individuals who drank alcohol at least once per month. The equivalent of four standard alcohol drinks was consumed at the participant’s desired pace within a two-hour session. Results Correlation analyses revealed that, after alcohol drinking, mean simulated driving speed, time in excess of speed limit, collisions, and reported confidence in driving were all associated with rapid alcohol drinking. Conclusion Fast drinking may coincide with increased driving confidence due to the extended latency between the conclusion of drinking and the commencement of driving. However, this latency did not reduce alcohol-related driving impairment, as fast drinking was also associated with risky driving. PMID:23027650

Proteogenomic characterization of human colon and rectal cancer

PubMed Central

Zhang, Bing; Wang, Jing; Wang, Xiaojing; Zhu, Jing; Liu, Qi; Shi, Zhiao; Chambers, Matthew C.; Zimmerman, Lisa J.; Shaddox, Kent F.; Kim, Sangtae; Davies, Sherri R.; Wang, Sean; Wang, Pei; Kinsinger, Christopher R.; Rivers, Robert C.; Rodriguez, Henry; Townsend, R. Reid; Ellis, Matthew J.C.; Carr, Steven A.; Tabb, David L.; Coffey, Robert J.; Slebos, Robbert J.C.; Liebler, Daniel C.

2014-01-01

Summary We analyzed proteomes of colon and rectal tumors previously characterized by the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and performed integrated proteogenomic analyses. Somatic variants displayed reduced protein abundance compared to germline variants. mRNA transcript abundance did not reliably predict protein abundance differences between tumors. Proteomics identified five proteomic subtypes in the TCGA cohort, two of which overlapped with the TCGA “MSI/CIMP” transcriptomic subtype, but had distinct mutation, methylation, and protein expression patterns associated with different clinical outcomes. Although copy number alterations showed strong cis- and trans-effects on mRNA abundance, relatively few of these extend to the protein level. Thus, proteomics data enabled prioritization of candidate driver genes. The chromosome 20q amplicon was associated with the largest global changes at both mRNA and protein levels; proteomics data highlighted potential 20q candidates including HNF4A, TOMM34 and SRC. Integrated proteogenomic analysis provides functional context to interpret genomic abnormalities and affords a new paradigm for understanding cancer biology. PMID:25043054

Anatomical and/or pathological predictors for the “incorrect” classification of red dot markers on wrist radiographs taken following trauma

PubMed Central

Kranz, R

2015-01-01

Objective: To establish the prevalence of red dot markers in a sample of wrist radiographs and to identify any anatomical and/or pathological characteristics that predict “incorrect” red dot classification. Methods: Accident and emergency (A&E) wrist cases from a digital imaging and communications in medicine/digital teaching library were examined for red dot prevalence and for the presence of several anatomical and pathological features. Binary logistic regression analyses were run to establish if any of these features were predictors of incorrect red dot classification. Results: 398 cases were analysed. Red dot was “incorrectly” classified in 8.5% of cases; 6.3% were “false negatives” (“FNs”)and 2.3% false positives (FPs) (one decimal place). Old fractures [odds ratio (OR), 5.070 (1.256–20.471)] and reported degenerative change [OR, 9.870 (2.300–42.359)] were found to predict FPs. Frykman V [OR, 9.500 (1.954–46.179)], Frykman VI [OR, 6.333 (1.205–33.283)] and non-Frykman positive abnormalities [OR, 4.597 (1.264–16.711)] predict “FNs”. Old fractures and Frykman VI were predictive of error at 90% confidence interval (CI); the rest at 95% CI. Conclusion: The five predictors of incorrect red dot classification may inform the image interpretation training of radiographers and other professionals to reduce diagnostic error. Verification with larger samples would reinforce these findings. Advances in knowledge: All healthcare providers strive to eradicate diagnostic error. By examining specific anatomical and pathological predictors on radiographs for such error, as well as extrinsic factors that may affect reporting accuracy, image interpretation training can focus on these “problem” areas and influence which radiographic abnormality detection schemes are appropriate to implement in A&E departments. PMID:25496373

RF-Phos: A Novel General Phosphorylation Site Prediction Tool Based on Random Forest.

PubMed

Ismail, Hamid D; Jones, Ahoi; Kim, Jung H; Newman, Robert H; Kc, Dukka B

2016-01-01

Protein phosphorylation is one of the most widespread regulatory mechanisms in eukaryotes. Over the past decade, phosphorylation site prediction has emerged as an important problem in the field of bioinformatics. Here, we report a new method, termed Random Forest-based Phosphosite predictor 2.0 (RF-Phos 2.0), to predict phosphorylation sites given only the primary amino acid sequence of a protein as input. RF-Phos 2.0, which uses random forest with sequence and structural features, is able to identify putative sites of phosphorylation across many protein families. In side-by-side comparisons based on 10-fold cross validation and an independent dataset, RF-Phos 2.0 compares favorably to other popular mammalian phosphosite prediction methods, such as PhosphoSVM, GPS2.1, and Musite.

Stomatin-like protein 2 is overexpressed in epithelial ovarian cancer and predicts poor patient survival.

PubMed

Sun, Fei; Ding, Wen; He, Jie-Hua; Wang, Xiao-Jing; Ma, Ze-Biao; Li, Yan-Fang

2015-10-20

Stomatin-like protein 2 (SLP-2, also known as STOML2) is a stomatin homologue of uncertain function. SLP-2 overexpression has been suggested to be associated with cancer progression, resulting in adverse clinical outcomes in patients. Our study aim to investigate SLP-2 expression in epithelial ovarian cancer cells and its correlation with patient survival. SLP-2 mRNA and protein expression levels were analysed in five epithelial ovarian cancer cell lines and normal ovarian epithelial cells using real-time PCR and western blotting analysis. SLP-2 expression was investigated in eight matched-pair samples of epithelial ovarian cancer and adjacent noncancerous tissues from the same patients. Using immunohistochemistry, we examined the protein expression of paraffin-embedded specimens from 140 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer, 20 cases with borderline ovarian tumours, 20 cases with benign ovarian tumours, and 20 cases with normal ovarian tissues. Statistical analyses were applied to evaluate the clinicopathological significance of SLP-2 expression. SLP-2 mRNA and protein expression levels were significantly up-regulated in epithelial ovarian cancer cell lines and cancer tissues compared with normal ovarian epithelial cells and adjacent noncancerous ovarian tissues. Immunohistochemistry analysis revealed that the relative overexpression of SLP-2 was detected in 73.6 % (103/140) of the epithelial ovarian cancer specimens, 45.0 % (9/20) of the borderline ovarian specimens, 30.0 % (6/20) of the benign ovarian specimens and none of the normal ovarian specimens. SLP-2 protein expression in epithelial ovarian cancer was significantly correlated with the tumour stage (P < 0.001). Epithelial ovarian cancer patients with higher SLP-2 protein expression levels had shorter progress free survival and overall survival times compared to patients with lower SLP-2 protein expression levels. Multivariate analyses showed that SLP-2 expression levels were an independent prognostic factor for survival in epithelial ovarian cancer patients. SLP-2 mRNA and proteins were overexpressed in epithelial ovarian cancer tissues. SLP-2 protein overexpression was associated with advanced stage disease. Patients with higher SLP-2 protein expression had shorter progress free survival and poor overall survival times. Thus, SLP-2 protein expression was an independent prognostic factor for patients with epithelial ovarian cancer.

Growth morphology of CL-20/HMX cocrystal explosive: insights from solvent behavior under different temperatures.

PubMed

Han, Gang; Li, Qi-Fa; Gou, Rui-Jun; Zhang, Shu-Hai; Ren, Fu-de; Wang, Li; Guan, Rong

2017-11-28

A 2,4,6,8,10,12-hexanitro-2,4,6,8,10,12-hexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20) /1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazacyclooctane (HMX)-isopropanol (IPA) interfacial model was constructed to investigate the effect of temperature on cocrystal morphology. A constant volume and temperature molecular dynamics (NVT-MD) simulation was performed on the interfacial model at various temperatures (295-355 K, 20 K intervals). The surface electrostatic potential (ESP) of the CL-20/HMX cocrystal structure and IPA molecule were studied by the B3LYP method at 6-311++G (d, p) level. The surface energies, polarities, adsorption energy, mass density distribution, radial distribution function (RDF), mean square displacement (MSD) and relative changes of attachment energy were analyzed. The results show that polarities of (1 0 0) and (0 1 1) cocrystal surfaces may be more negative and affected by IPA solvent. The adsorption energy per area indicates that growth of the (1 0-2) face in IPA conditions may be more limited, while the (1 0 0) face tends to grow more freely. MSD and diffusion coefficient (D) analyses demonstrated that IPA molecules gather more easily on the cocrystal surface at lower temperatures, and hence have a larger effect on the growth of cocrystal faces. RDF analysis shows that, with the increasing of temperature, the strength of hydrogen bond interactions between cocrystal and solvent becomes stronger, being highest at 335 K for the (1 0 0) and (0 1 1) interfacial models. Results of relative changes of modified attachment energy show that (1 0 0) and (0 1 1) faces tends to be larger than other faces. Moreover, the predicted morphologies at 295 and 355 K are consistent with experimental values, proving that the CL-20/HMX-IPA interfacial model is a reasonable one for this study. Graphical Abstract Construction of 2,4,6,8,10,12-hexanitro-2,4,6,8,10,12-hexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20) /1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazacyclooctane (HMX)-isopropanol (IPA) interfacial model, analysis, and morphology prediction of cocrystal.

Mortality sensitivity in life-stage simulation analysis: A case study of southern sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.; Jessup, David A.

2004-01-01

Currently, there are no generally recognized approaches for linking detailed mortality and pathology data to population-level analyses of extinction risk. We used a combination of analytical and simulation-based analyses to examine 20 years of age- and sex-specific mortality data for southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris), and we applied results to project the efficacy of alternative conservation strategies. Population recovery of the southern sea otter has been slow (rate of population increase ?? = 1.05) compared to other recovering populations (?? = 1.17-1.20), and the population declined (?? = 0.975) between 1995 and 1999. Age-based Leslie matrices were developed to explore explanations for the slow recovery and recent decline in the southern sea other population. An elasticity analysis was performed to predict effects of proportional changes in stage-specific reproductive or survival rates on the rate of population increase. A life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) was developed to evaluate the impact of changing age- and cause-specific mortality rates on ??. The information used to develop these models was derived from death assemblage, pathology, and live population census data to examine the sensitivity of sea otter population growth to different sources of mortality (e.g., disease and starvation, direct human take [fisheries, gun shot, boat strike, oil pollution], mating trauma and intraspecific aggression, shark bites, and unknown). We used resampling simulations to generate random combinations of vital rates for a large number of matrix replicates and drew on these to estimate potential effects of mortality sources on population growth (??). Our analyses suggest management actions that are likely and unlikely to promote recovery of the southern sea otter and more broadly indicate a methodology to better utilize cause-of-death data in conservation decision-making.

The Impact of Magnetic Resonance Imaging on Prediction of Extraprostatic Extension and Prostatectomy Outcome in Patients with Low-, Intermediate- and High-Risk Prostate Cancer: Try to Find a Standard.

PubMed

Radtke, Jan Philipp; Hadaschik, Boris A; Wolf, Maya B; Freitag, Martin T; Schwab, Constantin; Alt, Celine; Roth, Wilfried; Duensing, Stefan; Pahernik, Sascha A; Roethke, Matthias C; Schlemmer, Heinz-Peter; Hohenfellner, Markus; Teber, Dogu

2015-12-01

To investigate the value of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and to predict extracapsular extension (ECE), seminal vesicle (SV) infiltration, and a negative surgical margin (SM) status at radical prostatectomy (RP) for different prostate cancer (PC) risk groups. In the study, 805 men underwent 3 tesla mpMRI without endorectal coil before MRI/transrectal ultrasonography-fusion guided prostate biopsy. MRIs were analyzed using the prostate imaging reporting and data system. The cohort was classified into risk groups according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) criteria. Of 132 men who subsequently underwent RP, pathologic stage and SM status at RP were used as reference. Retrospectively, we investigated a European Society of Urogenital Radiology (ESUR) score for ECE and SV-infiltration. Statistical analyses included regression analyses, receiver operating characteristics (ROC), and Youden Index to assess an ESUR-score cutoff. Area under the curve in ROC curve analyses was 0.82 for ESUR-ECE score to detect pT(3a)-disease and 0.77 for ESUR-SV score for pT(3b). Using a cutoff of 4 for ECE and of 2 for SV, the positive predictive value of the ECE-score for harboring pT(3) was 50.0%, 90.0%, and 88.8% for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk cohort. Retrospectively, the use of the ESUR-ECE score preoperatively would have changed the initial surgical plan, according to NCCN criteria, in 31.1% of patients. In the high-risk subgroup, 9/35 (25.7%) patients were correctly assessed as not harboring pT(3) by imaging (ECE score <4), and would have allowed secure robot-assisted radical prostatectomy and nerve-sparing surgery (NSS). When T3 suspicion on preoperative MRI would be taken into account, intraoperative frozen-sections (IFS) might avoid positive SM in 12/18 high-risk patients and an oncologic secure NSS in 8/20 intermediate-risk patients. Prediction of pT(3) disease is crucial to plan NSS and to achieve negative SM in RP. Standardized ECE scoring on mpMRI is an independent predictor of pT(3) and may help to plan RP with oncologic security, even in high-risk patients. In addition, it allows more accurate selection of a subgroup of patients for systematic and MRI-guided IFS.

DTI measures identify mild and moderate TBI cases among patients with complex health problems: A receiver operating characteristic analysis of U.S. veterans.

PubMed

Main, Keith L; Soman, Salil; Pestilli, Franco; Furst, Ansgar; Noda, Art; Hernandez, Beatriz; Kong, Jennifer; Cheng, Jauhtai; Fairchild, Jennifer K; Taylor, Joy; Yesavage, Jerome; Wesson Ashford, J; Kraemer, Helena; Adamson, Maheen M

2017-01-01

Standard MRI methods are often inadequate for identifying mild traumatic brain injury (TBI). Advances in diffusion tensor imaging now provide potential biomarkers of TBI among white matter fascicles (tracts). However, it is still unclear which tracts are most pertinent to TBI diagnosis. This study ranked fiber tracts on their ability to discriminate patients with and without TBI. We acquired diffusion tensor imaging data from military veterans admitted to a polytrauma clinic (Overall n  = 109; Age: M  = 47.2, SD  = 11.3; Male: 88%; TBI: 67%). TBI diagnosis was based on self-report and neurological examination. Fiber tractography analysis produced 20 fiber tracts per patient. Each tract yielded four clinically relevant measures (fractional anisotropy, mean diffusivity, radial diffusivity, and axial diffusivity). We applied receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses to identify the most diagnostic tract for each measure. The analyses produced an optimal cutpoint for each tract. We then used kappa coefficients to rate the agreement of each cutpoint with the neurologist's diagnosis. The tract with the highest kappa was most diagnostic. As a check on the ROC results, we performed a stepwise logistic regression on each measure using all 20 tracts as predictors. We also bootstrapped the ROC analyses to compute the 95% confidence intervals for sensitivity, specificity, and the highest kappa coefficients. The ROC analyses identified two fiber tracts as most diagnostic of TBI: the left cingulum (LCG) and the left inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (LIF). Like ROC, logistic regression identified LCG as most predictive for the FA measure but identified the right anterior thalamic tract (RAT) for the MD, RD, and AD measures. These findings are potentially relevant to the development of TBI biomarkers. Our methods also demonstrate how ROC analysis may be used to identify clinically relevant variables in the TBI population.

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics for unregulated streams in Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Arihood, Leslie D.

2010-01-01

This report provides estimates of, and presents methods for estimating, selected low-flow frequency statistics for unregulated streams in Kentucky including the 30-day mean low flows for recurrence intervals of 2 and 5 years (30Q2 and 30Q5) and the 7-day mean low flows for recurrence intervals of 5, 10, and 20 years (7Q2, 7Q10, and 7Q20). Estimates of these statistics are provided for 121 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations with data through the 2006 climate year, which is the 12-month period ending March 31 of each year. Data were screened to identify the periods of homogeneous, unregulated flows for use in the analyses. Logistic-regression equations are presented for estimating the annual probability of the selected low-flow frequency statistics being equal to zero. Weighted-least-squares regression equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of the nonzero 30Q2, 30Q5, 7Q2, 7Q10, and 7Q20 low flows. Three low-flow regions were defined for estimating the 7-day low-flow frequency statistics. The explicit explanatory variables in the regression equations include total drainage area and the mapped streamflow-variability index measured from a revised statewide coverage of this characteristic. The percentage of the station low-flow statistics correctly classified as zero or nonzero by use of the logistic-regression equations ranged from 87.5 to 93.8 percent. The average standard errors of prediction of the weighted-least-squares regression equations ranged from 108 to 226 percent. The 30Q2 regression equations have the smallest standard errors of prediction, and the 7Q20 regression equations have the largest standard errors of prediction. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites with low flows unaffected by regulation from reservoirs and local diversions of flow and to drainage basins in specified ranges of basin characteristics. Caution is advised when applying the equations for basins with characteristics near the applicable limits and for basins with karst drainage features.

VOC composition of current motor vehicle fuels and vapors, and collinearity analyses for receptor modeling.

PubMed

Chin, Jo-Yu; Batterman, Stuart A

2012-03-01

The formulation of motor vehicle fuels can alter the magnitude and composition of evaporative and exhaust emissions occurring throughout the fuel cycle. Information regarding the volatile organic compound (VOC) composition of motor fuels other than gasoline is scarce, especially for bioethanol and biodiesel blends. This study examines the liquid and vapor (headspace) composition of four contemporary and commercially available fuels: gasoline (<10% ethanol), E85 (85% ethanol and 15% gasoline), ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD), and B20 (20% soy-biodiesel and 80% ULSD). The composition of gasoline and E85 in both neat fuel and headspace vapor was dominated by aromatics and n-heptane. Despite its low gasoline content, E85 vapor contained higher concentrations of several VOCs than those in gasoline vapor, likely due to adjustments in its formulation. Temperature changes produced greater changes in the partial pressures of 17 VOCs in E85 than in gasoline, and large shifts in the VOC composition. B20 and ULSD were dominated by C(9) to C(16)n-alkanes and low levels of the aromatics, and the two fuels had similar headspace vapor composition and concentrations. While the headspace composition predicted using vapor-liquid equilibrium theory was closely correlated to measurements, E85 vapor concentrations were underpredicted. Based on variance decomposition analyses, gasoline and diesel fuels and their vapors VOC were distinct, but B20 and ULSD fuels and vapors were highly collinear. These results can be used to estimate fuel related emissions and exposures, particularly in receptor models that apportion emission sources, and the collinearity analysis suggests that gasoline- and diesel-related emissions can be distinguished. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

VOC composition of current motor vehicle fuels and vapors, and collinearity analyses for receptor modeling

PubMed Central

Chin, Jo-Yu; Batterman, Stuart A.

2015-01-01

The formulation of motor vehicle fuels can alter the magnitude and composition of evaporative and exhaust emissions occurring throughout the fuel cycle. Information regarding the volatile organic compound (VOC) composition of motor fuels other than gasoline is scarce, especially for bioethanol and bio-diesel blends. This study examines the liquid and vapor (headspace) composition of four contemporary and commercially available fuels: gasoline (<10% ethanol), E85 (85% ethanol and 15% gasoline), ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD), and B20 (20% soy-biodiesel and 80% ULSD). The composition of gasoline and E85 in both neat fuel and headspace vapor was dominated by aromatics and n-heptane. Despite its low gasoline content, E85 vapor contained higher concentrations of several VOCs than those in gasoline vapor, likely due to adjustments in its formulation. Temperature changes produced greater changes in the partial pressures of 17 VOCs in E85 than in gasoline, and large shifts in the VOC composition. B20 and ULSD were dominated by C9 to C16 n-alkanes and low levels of the aromatics, and the two fuels had similar headspace vapor composition and concentrations. While the headspace composition predicted using vapor–liquid equilibrium theory was closely correlated to measurements, E85 vapor concentrations were underpredicted. Based on variance decomposition analyses, gasoline and diesel fuels and their vapors VOC were distinct, but B20 and ULSD fuels and vapors were highly collinear. These results can be used to estimate fuel related emissions and exposures, particularly in receptor models that apportion emission sources, and the collinearity analysis suggests that gasoline- and diesel-related emissions can be distinguished. PMID:22154341

Becker muscular dystrophy with widespread muscle hypertrophy and a non-sense mutation of exon 2.

PubMed

Witting, N; Duno, M; Vissing, J

2013-01-01

Becker muscular dystrophy features progressive proximal weakness, wasting and often focal hypertrophy. We present a patient with pain and cramps from adolescence. Widespread muscle hypertrophy, preserved muscle strength and a 10-20-fold raised CPK were noted. Muscle biopsy was dystrophic, and Western blot showed a 95% reduction of dystrophin levels. Genetic analyses revealed a non-sense mutation in exon 2 of the dystrophin gene. This mutation is predicted to result in a Duchenne phenotype, but resulted in a mild Becker muscular dystrophy with widespread muscle hypertrophy. We suggest that this unusual phenotype is caused by translation re-initiation downstream from the mutation site. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The threshold of hypothyroidism after radiation therapy for head and neck cancer: a retrospective analysis of 116 cases.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masayuki; Kamikonya, Norihiko; Odawara, Soichi; Suzuki, Hitomi; Niwa, Yasue; Takada, Yasuhiro; Doi, Hiroshi; Terada, Tomonori; Uwa, Nobuhiro; Sagawa, Kosuke; Hirota, Shozo

2015-05-01

The purpose of the present study was to determine the risk factors for developing thyroid disorders based on a dose-volume histograms (DVHs) analysis. Data from a total of 116 consecutive patients undergoing 3D conformal radiation therapy for head and neck cancers was retrospectively evaluated. Radiation therapy was performed between April 2007 and December 2010. There were 108 males and 8 females included in the study. The median follow-up term was 24 months (range, 1-62 months). The thyroid function was evaluated by measuring thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) levels. The mean thyroid dose, and the volume of thyroid gland spared from doses ≥10, 20, 30 and 40 Gy (VS10, VS20, VS30 and VS40) were calculated for all patients. The thyroid dose and volume were calculated by the radiotherapy planning system (RTPS). The cumulative incidences of hypothyroidism were 21.1% and 36.4% at one year and two years, respectively, after the end of radiation therapy. In the DVH analyses, the patients who received a mean thyroid dose <30 Gy had a significantly lower incidence of hypothyroidism. The univariate analyses showed that the VS10, VS20, VS30 and VS40 were associated with the risk of hypothyroidism. Hypothyroidism was a relatively common type of late radiation-induced toxicity. A mean thyroid dose of 30 Gy may be a useful threshold for predicting the development of hypothyroidism after radiation therapy for head and neck cancers. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

NASA/FAA general aviation crash dynamics program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomson, R. G.; Hayduk, R. J.; Carden, H. D.

1981-01-01

The program involves controlled full scale crash testing, nonlinear structural analyses to predict large deflection elastoplastic response, and load attenuating concepts for use in improved seat and subfloor structure. Both analytical and experimental methods are used to develop expertise in these areas. Analyses include simplified procedures for estimating energy dissipating capabilities and comprehensive computerized procedures for predicting airframe response. These analyses are developed to provide designers with methods for predicting accelerations, loads, and displacements on collapsing structure. Tests on typical full scale aircraft and on full and subscale structural components are performed to verify the analyses and to demonstrate load attenuating concepts. A special apparatus was built to test emergency locator transmitters when attached to representative aircraft structure. The apparatus is shown to provide a good simulation of the longitudinal crash pulse observed in full scale aircraft crash tests.

Design of a transportable high efficiency fast neutron spectrometer

DOE PAGES

Roecker, C.; Bernstein, A.; Bowden, N. S.; ...

2016-04-12

A transportable fast neutron detection system has been designed and constructed for measuring neutron energy spectra and flux ranging from tens to hundreds of MeV. The transportability of the spectrometer reduces the detector-related systematic bias between different neutron spectra and flux measurements, which allows for the comparison of measurements above or below ground. The spectrometer will measure neutron fluxes that are of prohibitively low intensity compared to the site-specific background rates targeted by other transportable fast neutron detection systems. To measure low intensity high-energy neutron fluxes, a conventional capture-gating technique is used for measuring neutron energies above 20 MeV andmore » a novel multiplicity technique is used for measuring neutron energies above 100 MeV. The spectrometer is composed of two Gd containing plastic scintillator detectors arranged around a lead spallation target. To calibrate and characterize the position dependent response of the spectrometer, a Monte Carlo model was developed and used in conjunction with experimental data from gamma ray sources. Multiplicity event identification algorithms were developed and used with a Cf-252 neutron multiplicity source to validate the Monte Carlo model Gd concentration and secondary neutron capture efficiency. The validated Monte Carlo model was used to predict an effective area for the multiplicity and capture gating analyses. For incident neutron energies between 100 MeV and 1000 MeV with an isotropic angular distribution, the multiplicity analysis predicted an effective area of 500 cm 2 rising to 5000 cm 2. For neutron energies above 20 MeV, the capture-gating analysis predicted an effective area between 1800 cm 2 and 2500 cm 2. As a result, the multiplicity mode was found to be sensitive to the incident neutron angular distribution.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roecker, C.; Bernstein, A.; Bowden, N. S.

A transportable fast neutron detection system has been designed and constructed for measuring neutron energy spectra and flux ranging from tens to hundreds of MeV. The transportability of the spectrometer reduces the detector-related systematic bias between different neutron spectra and flux measurements, which allows for the comparison of measurements above or below ground. The spectrometer will measure neutron fluxes that are of prohibitively low intensity compared to the site-specific background rates targeted by other transportable fast neutron detection systems. To measure low intensity high-energy neutron fluxes, a conventional capture-gating technique is used for measuring neutron energies above 20 MeV andmore » a novel multiplicity technique is used for measuring neutron energies above 100 MeV. The spectrometer is composed of two Gd containing plastic scintillator detectors arranged around a lead spallation target. To calibrate and characterize the position dependent response of the spectrometer, a Monte Carlo model was developed and used in conjunction with experimental data from gamma ray sources. Multiplicity event identification algorithms were developed and used with a Cf-252 neutron multiplicity source to validate the Monte Carlo model Gd concentration and secondary neutron capture efficiency. The validated Monte Carlo model was used to predict an effective area for the multiplicity and capture gating analyses. For incident neutron energies between 100 MeV and 1000 MeV with an isotropic angular distribution, the multiplicity analysis predicted an effective area of 500 cm 2 rising to 5000 cm 2. For neutron energies above 20 MeV, the capture-gating analysis predicted an effective area between 1800 cm 2 and 2500 cm 2. As a result, the multiplicity mode was found to be sensitive to the incident neutron angular distribution.« less

Prediction of anaerobic power values from an abbreviated WAnT protocol.

PubMed

Stickley, Christopher D; Hetzler, Ronald K; Kimura, Iris F

2008-05-01

The traditional 30-second Wingate anaerobic test (WAnT) is a widely used anaerobic power assessment protocol. An abbreviated protocol has been shown to decrease the mild to severe physical discomfort often associated with the WAnT. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether a 20-second WAnT protocol could be used to accurately predict power values of a standard 30-second WAnT. In 96 college females, anaerobic power variables were assessed using a standard 30-second WAnT protocol. Maximum power values as well as instantaneous power at 10, 15, and 20 seconds were recorded. Based on these results, stepwise regression analysis was performed to determine the accuracy with which mean power, minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue for a standard 30-second WAnT could be predicted from values obtained during the first 20 seconds of testing. Mean power values showed the highest level of predictability (R2 = 0.99) from the 20-second values. Minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue also showed high levels of predictability (R2 = 0.91, 0.84, and 0.84, respectively) using only values obtained during the first 20 seconds of the protocol. An abbreviated (20-second) WAnT protocol appears to effectively predict results of a standard 30-second WAnT in college-age females, allowing for comparison of data to published norms. A shortened test may allow for a decrease in unwanted side effects associated with the traditional WAnT protocol.

Finite element elastic-plastic-creep and cyclic life analysis of a cowl lip

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arya, Vinod K.; Melis, Matthew E.; Halford, Gary R.

1990-01-01

Results are presented of elastic, elastic-plastic, and elastic-plastic-creep analyses of a test-rig component of an actively cooled cowl lip. A cowl lip is part of the leading edge of an engine inlet of proposed hypersonic aircraft and is subject to severe thermal loadings and gradients during flight. Values of stresses calculated by elastic analysis are well above the yield strength of the cowl lip material. Such values are highly unrealistic, and thus elastic stress analyses are inappropriate. The inelastic (elastic-plastic and elastic-plastic-creep) analyses produce more reasonable and acceptable stress and strain distributions in the component. Finally, using the results from these analyses, predictions are made for the cyclic crack initiation life of a cowl lip. A comparison of predicted cyclic lives shows the cyclic life prediction from the elastic-plastic-creep analysis to be the lowest and, hence, most realistic.

A 20-year review of pectus surgery: an analysis of factors predictive of recurrence and outcomes.

PubMed

Tikka, Theofano; Kalkat, Maninder S; Bishay, Ehab; Steyn, Richard S; Rajesh, Pala B; Naidu, Babu

2016-12-01

Only a few studies report the long-term outcomes following repair of pectus excavatum (PE) and pectus carinatum (PC). Predictors of recurrence after surgery are important in this group of young patients. The purpose of this study was to assess the short- and long-term outcomes of both PE and PC and identify factors associated with postoperative complications and pectus recurrence. This was a retrospective observational study that included all patients who underwent primary or recurrent repair of PC and PE in a regional thoracic centre over 20 years. Patients' demographics, type of surgery, complications and recurrence were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors predictive of pectus recurrence. A total of 297 patients were included (262 men and 35 women). The mean age was 19.8 years (95% CI 19.3-20.5). A total of 169 patients had surgery for PE and 127 for PC. A total of 243 patients had a modified Ravitch procedure (166 without a bar) and 53 patients underwent the Nuss repair. The main postoperative complications were wound infection and bleeding or haematoma. The recurrence rate over the mean follow-up period of 8.6 years was 10%. In PE, patients treated with the Ravitch procedure with the bar experienced more complications. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that PE patients who developed a complication had a significantly increased chance of recurrence. No risk factors were linked with recurrence of PC. Life-transforming pectus surgery can be performed with low morbidity and good long-term outcomes. Recurrence of PE deformity is associated with the development of postoperative complications. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Determining degree of roasting in cocoa beans by artificial neural network (ANN)-based electronic nose system and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS).

PubMed

Tan, Juzhong; Kerr, William L

2018-08-01

Roasting is a critical step in chocolate processing, where moisture content is decreased and unique flavors and texture are developed. The determination of the degree of roasting in cocoa beans is important to ensure the quality of chocolate. Determining the degree of roasting relies on human specialists or sophisticated chemical analyses that are inaccessible to small manufacturers and farmers. In this study, an electronic nose system was constructed consisting of an array of gas sensors and used to detect volatiles emanating from cocoa beans roasted for 0, 20, 30 and 40 min. The several signals were used to train a three-layer artificial neural network (ANN). Headspace samples were also analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS), with 23 select volatiles used to train a separate ANN. Both ANNs were used to predict the degree of roasting of cocoa beans. The electronic nose had a prediction accuracy of 94.4% using signals from sensors TGS 813, 826, 822, 830, 830, 2620, 2602 and 2610. In comparison, the GC/MS predicted the degree of roasting with an accuracy of 95.8%. The electronic nose system is able to predict the extent of roasting, as well as a more sophisticated approach using GC/MS. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Testing the relativistic precession model using low-frequency and kHz quasi-periodic oscillations in neutron star low-mass X-ray binaries with known spin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Doesburgh, Marieke; van der Klis, Michiel

2017-03-01

We analyse all available RXTE data on a sample of 13 low-mass X-ray binaries with known neutron star spin that are not persistent pulsars. We carefully measure the correlations between the centroid frequencies of the quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). We compare these correlations to the prediction of the relativistic precession model that, due to frame dragging, a QPO will occur at the Lense-Thirring precession frequency νLT of a test-particle orbit whose orbital frequency is the upper kHz QPO frequency νu. Contrary to the most prominent previous studies, we find two different oscillations in the range predicted for νLT that are simultaneously present over a wide range of νu. Additionally, one of the low-frequency noise components evolves into a (third) QPO in the νLT range when νu exceeds 600 Hz. The frequencies of these QPOs all correlate to νu following power laws with indices between 0.4 and 3.3, significantly exceeding the predicted value of 2.0 in 80 per cent of the cases (at 3 to >20σ). Also, there is no evidence that the neutron star spin frequency affects any of these three QPO frequencies, as would be expected for frame dragging. Finally, the observed QPO frequencies tend to be higher than the νLT predicted for reasonable neutron star specific moment of inertia. In the light of recent successes of precession models in black holes, we briefly discuss ways in which such precession can occur in neutron stars at frequencies different from test-particle values and consistent with those observed. A precessing torus geometry and other torques than frame dragging may allow precession to produce the observed frequency correlations, but can only explain one of the three QPOs in the νLT range.

Orthostatic Changes in Blood Pressure and Cognitive Status in the Elderly: The Progetto Veneto Anziani Study.

PubMed

Curreri, Chiara; Giantin, Valter; Veronese, Nicola; Trevisan, Caterina; Sartori, Leonardo; Musacchio, Estella; Zambon, Sabina; Maggi, Stefania; Perissinotto, Egle; Corti, Maria Chiara; Crepaldi, Gaetano; Manzato, Enzo; Sergi, Giuseppe

2016-08-01

We studied a cohort of 1408 older subjects to explore whether postural changes in blood pressure (BP; defined as orthostatic hypo- or hypertension) can predict the onset of cognitive deterioration. Orthostatic hypotension was defined as a drop of 20 mm Hg in systolic or 10 mm Hg in diastolic BP and orthostatic hypertension as a rise of 20 mm Hg in systolic BP. Orthostatic BP values were grouped into quintiles for secondary analyses. Two cognitive assessments were considered: (1) cognitive impairment, that is, Mini-Mental State Examination scores ≤24/30, and (2) cognitive decline (CD), that is, a 3-point decrease in Mini-Mental State Examination score from the baseline to the follow-up. At the baseline, the prevalence of orthostatic hypotension and hypertension was 18.3% and 10.9%, respectively. At the follow-up (4.4±1.2 years), 286 participants were found cognitively impaired and 138 had a CD. Using logistic regression analysis adjusted for potential baseline confounders, participants with orthostatic hypertension were at significantly higher risk of CD (odds ratio =1.50; 95% confidence intervals =1.26-1.78). Neither orthostatic hypotension nor orthostatic hypertension raised the risk of developing a cognitive impairment. Using quintiles of orthostatic BP values, we found that both decreases and increases in systolic and diastolic BP raised the risk of CD, but not of cognitive impairment. In conclusion, we found that orthostatic hypertension predicts the onset of CD, but not of cognitive impairment in the elderly, whereas orthostatic hypotension predicts neither of these conditions. Further studies are needed to confirm our findings. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Patterns of Weight Change in Black Americans: Pooled Analysis from Three Behavioral Weight Loss Trials

PubMed Central

Morales, Knashawn H.; Kumanyika, Shiriki K.; Fassbender, Jennifer E.; Good, Jerene; Localio, A. Russell; Wadden, Thomas A.

2014-01-01

Objective Differentiating trajectories of weight change and identifying associated baseline predictors can provide insights for improving behavioral obesity treatment outcomes. Design and Methods Secondary, observational analyses using growth mixture models were conducted in pooled data for 604 black American, primarily female adults in three completed clinical trials. Covariates of identified patterns were evaluated. Results The best fitting model identified three patterns over 2 years: 1) mean weight loss of approximately 2 kg (n=519); 2) mean weight loss of approximately 3 kg at 1 year, followed by ~ 4 kg regain (n=61); and 3) mean weight loss of approximately 20 kg at 1 year followed by ~ 4 kg regain (n=24, with 23 from one study). In final multivariate analyses, higher BMI predicted having pattern 2 (OR[95% CI]) 1.10[1.03, 1.17]) or 3 (OR[95% CI] 1.42[1.25, 1.63]), and higher dietary fat score was predictive of a lower odds of having patterns 2 (OR[95% CI] 0.37[0.15, 0.94]) or 3 (OR[95% CI] 0.23[0.07, 0.79]). Conclusions Findings were consistent with moderate, clinically non-significant weight loss as the predominant pattern across all studies. Results underscore the need to develop novel and more carefully targeted and tailored approaches to facilitating weight loss in black American adults. PMID:25251464

Potential impact on cardiovascular public health of over-the-counter statin availability.

PubMed

Brass, Eric P; Allen, Shannon E; Melin, Jeffrey M

2006-03-15

Over-the-counter (OTC) statin availability has been hypothesized to represent a strategy for treating consumers at moderate risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) who are currently not receiving drug therapy. The viability of this strategy has been questioned, particularly with respect to the public health benefit that can be obtained in an unsupervised treatment environment. The previously reported Consumer Use Study of Over-the-Counter Lovastatin (CUSTOM) examined consumer behavior in a simulated OTC setting in which 20 mg lovastatin could be purchased. Framingham CHD risk scores were calculated for 981 self-selected consumers who used OTC lovastatin in CUSTOM. Overall, this group had a median 10-year CHD risk of 10%, but with significant numbers of consumers with estimated risks of <5% and >20%. According to the risk profile of CUSTOM consumers, the use of 20 mg lovastatin for 10 years would be expected to prevent approximately 33,100 CHD events per 1 million users. This represents a 10-year number needed to treat of 30 consumers. This optimal benefit may be reduced because some higher risk consumers in CUSTOM used lovastatin rather than appropriate, more aggressive supervised care. On the basis of the frequencies of diversion from optimal care observed in CUSTOM, the number of events prevented might be reduced to 23,000 (number needed to treat 43 consumers). Sensitivity analyses have demonstrated that these estimates are robust and that the predicted public health benefit likely falls in the range of 23,000 to 33,000 CHD events prevented per 1 million treated for 10 years. In conclusion, on a population basis, OTC statin availability is likely to result in clinically meaningful reductions in CHD morbidity and mortality. The analyses also identified opportunities for optimizing the use of OTC statins in the marketplace.

Comprehensive splicing functional analysis of DNA variants of the BRCA2 gene by hybrid minigenes

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction The underlying pathogenic mechanism of a large fraction of DNA variants of disease-causing genes is the disruption of the splicing process. We aimed to investigate the effect on splicing of the BRCA2 variants c.8488-1G > A (exon 20) and c.9026_9030del (exon 23), as well as 41 BRCA2 variants reported in the Breast Cancer Information Core (BIC) mutation database. Methods DNA variants were analyzed with the splicing prediction programs NNSPLICE and Human Splicing Finder. Functional analyses of candidate variants were performed by lymphocyte RT-PCR and/or hybrid minigene assays. Forty-one BIC variants of exons 19, 20, 23 and 24 were bioinformatically selected and generated by PCR-mutagenesis of the wild type minigenes. Results Lymphocyte RT-PCR of c.8488-1G > A showed intron 19 retention and a 12-nucleotide deletion in exon 20, whereas c.9026_9030del did not show any splicing anomaly. Minigene analysis of c.8488-1G > A displayed the aforementioned aberrant isoforms but also exon 20 skipping. We further evaluated the splicing outcomes of 41 variants of four BRCA2 exons by minigene analysis. Eighteen variants presented splicing aberrations. Most variants (78.9%) disrupted the natural splice sites, whereas four altered putative enhancers/silencers and had a weak effect. Fluorescent RT-PCR of minigenes accurately detected 14 RNA isoforms generated by cryptic site usage, exon skipping and intron retention events. Fourteen variants showed total splicing disruptions and were predicted to truncate or eliminate essential domains of BRCA2. Conclusions A relevant proportion of BRCA2 variants are correlated with splicing disruptions, indicating that RNA analysis is a valuable tool to assess the pathogenicity of a particular DNA change. The minigene system is a straightforward and robust approach to detect variants with an impact on splicing and contributes to a better knowledge of this gene expression step. PMID:22632462

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model.

PubMed

Fernandes, Jose A; Cheung, William W L; Jennings, Simon; Butenschön, Momme; de Mora, Lee; Frölicher, Thomas L; Barange, Manuel; Grant, Alastair

2013-08-01

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mayo Registry for Telemetry Efficacy in Arrest Study: An Assessment of the Utility of Telemetry in Predicting Clinical Decompensation.

PubMed

Snipelisky, David; Ray, Jordan; Matcha, Gautam; Roy, Archana; Harris, Dana; Bosworth, Veronica; Dumitrascu, Adrian; Clark, Brooke; Vadeboncoeur, Tyler; Kusumoto, Fred; Bowman, Cammi; Burton, M Caroline

2018-03-01

Our study assesses the utility of telemetry in identifying decompensation in patients with documented cardiopulmonary arrest. A retrospective review of inpatients who experienced a cardiopulmonary arrest from May 1, 2008, until June 30, 2014, was performed. Telemetry records 24 hours prior to and immediately preceding cardiopulmonary arrest were reviewed. Patient subanalyses based on clinical demographics were made as well as analyses of survival comparing patients with identifiable rhythm changes in telemetry to those without. Of 242 patients included in the study, 75 (31.0%) and 110 (45.5%) experienced telemetry changes at the 24-hour and immediately preceding time periods, respectively. Of the telemetry changes, the majority were classified as nonmalignant (n = 50, 66.7% and n = 66, 55.5% at 24 hours prior and immediately preceding, respectively). There was no difference in telemetry changes between intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU patients and among patients stratified according to the American Heart Association telemetry indications. There was no difference in survival when comparing patients with telemetry changes immediately preceding and at 24 hours prior to an event (n = 30, 27.3% and n = 15, 20.0%) to those without telemetry changes during the same periods (n = 27, 20.5% and n = 42, 25.2%; P = .22 and .39). Telemetry has limited utility in predicting clinical decompensation in the inpatient setting.

Prediction of Therapeutic Effect of Chemotherapy for NSCLC Using Dual-Input Perfusion CT Analysis: Comparison among Bevacizumab Treatment, Two-Agent Platinum-based Therapy without Bevacizumab, and Other Non-Bevacizumab Treatment Groups.

PubMed

Yabuuchi, Hidetake; Kawanami, Satoshi; Iwama, Eiji; Okamoto, Isamu; Kamitani, Takeshi; Sagiyama, Koji; Yamasaki, Yuzo; Honda, Hiroshi

2018-02-01

Purpose To determine whether dual-input perfusion computed tomography (CT) can predict therapeutic response and prognosis in patients who underwent chemotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Materials and Methods The institutional review board approved this study and informed consent was obtained. Sixty-six patients with stage III or IV NSCLC (42 men, 24 women; mean age, 63.4 years) who underwent chemotherapy were enrolled. Patients were separated into three groups: those who received chemotherapy with bevacizumab (BV) (n = 20), those who received two-agent platinum-based therapy without BV (n = 25), and those who received other non-BV treatment (n = 21). Before treatment, pulmonary artery perfusion (PAP) and bronchial artery perfusion (BAP) of the tumors were calculated. Predictors of tumor reduction after two courses of chemotherapy and prognosis were identified by using univariate and multivariate analyses. Covariates included were age, sex, patient's performance status, baseline maximum diameter of the tumor, clinical stage, pretreatment PAP, and pretreatment BAP. For multivariate analyses, multiple linear regression analysis for tumor reduction rate and Cox proportional hazards model for prognosis were performed, respectively. Results Pretreatment BAP was independently correlated with tumor reduction rate after two courses of chemotherapy in the BV treatment group (P = .006). Pretreatment BAP was significantly associated with a highly cumulative risk of death (P = .006) and disease progression after chemotherapy (P = .015) in the BV treatment group. Pretreatment PAP and clinical parameters were not significant predictors of therapeutic effect or prognosis in three treatment groups. Conclusion Pretreatment BAP derived from dual-input perfusion CT seems to be a promising tool to help predict responses to chemotherapy with BV in patients with NSCLC. © RSNA, 2017.

The predictive value of noninvasive serum markers of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

PubMed

Gökcan, Hale; Kuzu, Ufuk Barış; Öztaş, Erkin; Saygılı, Fatih; Öztuna, Derya; Suna, Nuretdin; Tenlik, İlyas; Akdoğan, Meral; Kaçar, Sabite; Kılıç, Zeki Mesut Yalın; Kayaçetin, Ertuğrul

2016-03-01

This study aims to show the predictive value of noninvasive serum markers on the hepatic fibrosis level. This cross sectional study involves 120 patients with chronic hepatitis C. The noninvasive markers used were as follows: age-platelet index (AP index), cirrhosis discriminant score (CDS), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AAR), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, AST-platelet ratio index (APRI), Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI), FibroQ, King's score, platelet count. Concurrent liver biopsies were evaluated using the modified Ishak and Knodell scoring systems. In accordance with the Knodell scores, F3-F4 scores were defined as "severe fibrosis," and the modified Ishak scores stage of ≥3 (F3-F6) were defined as "clinically significant fibrosis." Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were carried out to compare the noninvasive markers with hepatic fibrosis level. Mean age of the patients was 51.7±11.6. A total of 10 patients (8.3%) with Knodell scores and 24 patients (20%) with modified Ishak scores were evaluated to have ≥F3 hepatic fibrosis. ROC analyses with the Knodell and modified Ishak scores were as follows: AP index=0.61-0.57, CDS=0.66-0.55, AAR=0.60-0.49, FIB-4=0.70-0.68, APRI=0.67-0.72, GUCI=0.66-0.72, FibroQ=0.64-0.54, King's score=0.68-0.54, platelet count=0.61-0.55. We found that APRI, FIB-4, King's score, and GUCI can be used to determination patients with mild fibrosis with a high negative predictive value and in the differentiation of severe/significant fibrosis from mild to moderate fibrosis.

Identifying Clinical Factors Which Predict for Early Failure Patterns Following Resection for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma in Patients Who Received Adjuvant Chemotherapy Without Chemoradiation.

PubMed

Walston, Steve; Salloum, Joseph; Grieco, Carmine; Wuthrick, Evan; Diaz, Dayssy A; Barney, Christian; Manilchuk, Andrei; Schmidt, Carl; Dillhoff, Mary; Pawlik, Timothy M; Williams, Terence M

2018-05-04

The role of radiation therapy (RT) in resected pancreatic cancer (PC) remains incompletely defined. We sought to determine clinical variables which predict for local-regional recurrence (LRR) to help select patients for adjuvant RT. We identified 73 patients with PC who underwent resection and adjuvant gemcitabine-based chemotherapy alone. We performed detailed radiologic analysis of first patterns of failure. LRR was defined as recurrence of PC within standard postoperative radiation volumes. Univariate analyses (UVA) were conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analyses (MVA) utilized the Cox proportional hazard ratio model. Factors significant on UVA were used for MVA. At median follow-up of 20 months, rates of local-regional recurrence only (LRRO) were 24.7%, LRR as a component of any failure 68.5%, metastatic recurrence (MR) as a component of any failure 65.8%, and overall disease recurrence (OR) 90.5%. On UVA, elevated postoperative CA 19-9 (>90 U/mL), pathologic lymph node positive (pLN+) disease, and higher tumor grade were associated with increased LRR, MR, and OR. On MVA, elevated postoperative CA 19-9 and pLN+ were associated with increased MR and OR. In addition, positive resection margin was associated with increased LRRO on both UVA and MVA. About 25% of patients with PC treated without adjuvant RT develop LRRO as initial failure. The only independent predictor of LRRO was positive margin, while elevated postoperative CA 19-9 and pLN+ were associated with predicting MR and overall survival. These data may help determine which patients benefit from intensification of local therapy with radiation.

Group differences in anterior hippocampal volume and in the retrieval of spatial and temporal context memory in healthy young versus older adults.

PubMed

Rajah, M Natasha; Kromas, Michelle; Han, Jung Eun; Pruessner, Jens C

2010-12-01

The ability to retrieve temporal and spatial context information from memory declines with healthy aging. The hippocampus (HC) has been shown to be associated with successful encoding and retrieval of spatio-temporal context, versus item recognition information (Davachi, Mitchell, & Wagner, 2003; Nadel, Samsonovich, Ryan, & Moscovitch, 2000; Ross & Slotnick, 2008). Aging has been linked to volume reduction in the HC (Bouchard, Malykhin, Martin, Hanstock, Emery, Fisher, & Camicioli, 2008; Malykhin, Bouchard, Camicioli, & Coupland, 2008; Raz et al., 2005). As such, age-associated reductions in anterior HC volume may contribute to the context memory deficits observed in older adults. In the current MRI study we investigated whether item recognition, spatial context and temporal context memory performance would be predicted by regional volumes in HC head (HH), body (HB) and tail (HT) volumes, using within group multiple regression analyses in a sample of 19 healthy young (mean age 24.3) and 20 older adults (mean age 67.7). We further examined between age-group differences in the volumes of the same HC sub-regions. Multiple regression analyses revealed that in younger adults both spatial and temporal context retrieval performance was predicted by anterior HC volume. Older age was associated with significant volume reductions in HH and HB, but not HT; and with reduced ability to retrieve spatial and temporal contextual details from episodic memory. However, HC volumes did not predict context retrieval performance in older adults. We conclude that individual differences in anterior, not posterior, HC volumes predict context memory performance in young adults. With age there may be a posterior-to-anterior shift from using HC-related processes, due to HC volume loss, to employing the prefrontal cortex to aid in the performance of cognitively demanding context memory tasks. However, due to concomitant changes in the prefrontal system with age, there are limits to compensation in the aging brain. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Summer Extreme Precipitation over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Ning, L.; Liu, J.; Yan, M.; Sun, W.

2017-12-01

Abstract: Summer extreme precipitation (SEP) often causes severe landslide, debris flow and floods over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MLYRB), so skillful prediction of the SEP is critical to the future climate adaptions and mitigations. In this work, the characteristic region over the MLYRB (27°N-32°N,108°1-118°E) is defined by the spatial mode of the rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) of SEP over the China from 1961 to 2014. A physics-based empirical model (PEM) of SEP predictions is built with two preceding predictors with significant physical influences on the SEP over the MLYRB. The first predictor is the spring sea surface temperature (SST) over the Northern Indian Ocean (20°S-20°N,50°E-95°E), and the second predictor is the spring sea surface pressure (SLP) over the Aleutian Island (50°N-70°N,160°E-160°W). Analyses of physical mechanism show that when the spring SST over the Northern Indian Ocean is higher, the South Asian High (SAH) extends to the east and the western Pacific sub-tropical high (WPSH) extends to the west, therefore, the generated secondary circulation induces anomalous upward motions and more water vapor transportation to the MLYRB, resulting more SEP. Meanwhile, when the spring SLP over the Aleutian Island is lower, the also WPSH extends to the west, which leads to a negative omega anomaly centered the MLYRB and more water vapor transportation to the MLYRB, resulting in more SEP. The regression model is built using the data from a training period from 1961 to 1999 with correlation coefficient skill of 0.57 (p<0.01) for prediction of SEP in 1961-1999. The independent forecast of the PEM shows that it is skillful in SEP prediction with the correlation coefficient between observed SEP and model-simulated SEP over the validation period 2000-2014 is 0.51 (p<0.05). This finding shows that the preceding spring SST and SLP can provide useful information for prediction of SEP, and the methodology proposed here can be applied to a wide range of climate prediction studies. The future improvements are also discussed.

Rapid drinking is associated with increases in driving-related risk-taking.

PubMed

Bernosky-Smith, Kimberly A; Aston, Elizabeth R; Liguori, Anthony

2012-11-01

The rate of alcohol drinking has been shown to predict impairment on cognitive and behavioral tasks. The current study assessed the influence of speed of alcohol consumption within a laboratory-administered binge on self-reported attitudes toward driving and simulated driving ability. Forty moderate drinkers (20 female, 20 male) were recruited from the local community via advertisements for individuals who drank alcohol at least once per month. The equivalent of four standard alcohol drinks was consumed at the participant's desired pace within 2-h session. Correlation analyses revealed that, after alcohol drinking, mean simulated driving speed, time in excess of speed limit, collisions, and reported confidence in driving were all associated with rapid alcohol drinking. Fast drinking may coincide with increased driving confidence because of the extended latency between the conclusion of drinking and the commencement of driving. However, this latency did not reduce alcohol-related driving impairment, as fast drinking was also associated with risky driving. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of factors predicting speed of hematologic recovery after transplantation with 4-hydroperoxycyclophosphamide-purged autologous bone marrow grafts.

PubMed

Rowley, S D; Piantadosi, S; Marcellus, D C; Jones, R J; Davidson, N E; Davis, J M; Kennedy, J; Wiley, J M; Wingard, J R; Yeager, A M

1991-03-01

We previously described the predictive value of graft colony-forming units granulocyte macrophage (CFU-GM) content after 4-hydroperoxycyclophosphamide (4-HC) purging for the duration of aplasia after autologous bone marrow transplantation. Despite the uniform 4-HC concentration, we observed heterogeneity in CFU-GM survival and the kinetics of engraftment. We have now analysed patient and graft characteristics for 154 patients undergoing autologous transplantation with 4-HC purged grafts to further define this heterogeneity. Patients transplanted for the treatment of malignant lymphoma reached a peripheral blood granulocyte count of greater than 0.5 x 10(9)/l (median, 20 versus 40 days; p less than 0.001) and platelet transfusion independence (median, 30 versus 70 days; p less than 0.001) significantly faster than patients transplanted for acute non-lymphoblastic leukemia. Other diagnostic groups were intermediate. These differences were independent of graft CFU-GM content. Multiple other patient and graft factors including patient age, peripheral blood counts on day of harvest, and amounts of other hematopoietic progenitors also predicted the kinetics of engraftment in univariate and multivariate analysis. Cytomegalovirus infection during the aplastic period predicted a delay in granulocyte (p = 0.024) but not platelet recovery (p = 0.174). This analysis demonstrates that multiple patient, graft, and post-transplant factors predict the engraftment capacity of autografts, and the kinetics of engraftment with 4-HC purged grafts. The multiple predictive factors explain a significant portion of the variability in engraftment kinetics observed after transplantation with 4-HC purged autografts.

Can multi-subpopulation reference sets improve the genomic predictive ability for pigs?

PubMed

Fangmann, A; Bergfelder-Drüing, S; Tholen, E; Simianer, H; Erbe, M

2015-12-01

In most countries and for most livestock species, genomic evaluations are obtained from within-breed analyses. To achieve reliable breeding values, however, a sufficient reference sample size is essential. To increase this size, the use of multibreed reference populations for small populations is considered a suitable option in other species. Over decades, the separate breeding work of different pig breeding organizations in Germany has led to stratified subpopulations in the breed German Large White. Due to this fact and the limited number of Large White animals available in each organization, there was a pressing need for ascertaining if multi-subpopulation genomic prediction is superior compared with within-subpopulation prediction in pigs. Direct genomic breeding values were estimated with genomic BLUP for the trait "number of piglets born alive" using genotype data (Illumina Porcine 60K SNP BeadChip) from 2,053 German Large White animals from five different commercial pig breeding companies. To assess the prediction accuracy of within- and multi-subpopulation reference sets, a random 5-fold cross-validation with 20 replications was performed. The five subpopulations considered were only slightly differentiated from each other. However, the prediction accuracy of the multi-subpopulations approach was not better than that of the within-subpopulation evaluation, for which the predictive ability was already high. Reference sets composed of closely related multi-subpopulation sets performed better than sets of distantly related subpopulations but not better than the within-subpopulation approach. Despite the low differentiation of the five subpopulations, the genetic connectedness between these different subpopulations seems to be too small to improve the prediction accuracy by applying multi-subpopulation reference sets. Consequently, resources should be used for enlarging the reference population within subpopulation, for example, by adding genotyped females.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shirazi, M.A.; Davis, L.R.

To obtain improved prediction of heated plume characteristics from a surface jet, an integral analysis computer model was modified and a comprehensive set of field and laboratory data available from the literature was gathered, analyzed, and correlated for estimating the magnitude of certain coefficients that are normally introduced in these analyses to achieve closure. The parameters so estimated include the coefficients for entrainment, turbulent exchange, drag, and shear. Since there appeared considerable scatter in the data, even after appropriate subgrouping to narrow the influence of various flow conditions on the data, only statistical procedures could be applied to find themore » best fit. This and other analyses of its type have been widely used in industry and government for the prediction of thermal plumes from steam power plants. Although the present model has many shortcomings, a recent independent and exhaustive assessment of such predictions revealed that in comparison with other analyses of its type the present analysis predicts the field situations more successfully.« less

The importance of waist circumference in the definition of metabolic syndrome: prospective analyses of mortality in men.

PubMed

Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Janssen, Ian; Ross, Robert; Church, Timothy S; Blair, Steven N

2006-02-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive ability of the National Cholesterol Education Panel (NCEP), revised NCEP (NCEP-R), and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) metabolic syndrome criteria for mortality risk, and to examine the effects of waist circumference on mortality within the context of these criteria. The sample included 20,789 white, non-Hispanic men 20-83 years of age from the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. The main outcome measures were all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality over 11.4 years of follow-up. The proportions of men with the metabolic syndrome were 19.7, 27, and 30% at baseline, respectively, according to NCEP, NCEP-R, and IDF criteria. A total of 632 deaths (213 CVD) occurred. The relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs of all-cause mortality were 1.36 (1.14-1.62), 1.31 (1.11-1.54), and 1.26 (1.07-1.49) for the NCEP, NCEP-R, and IDF definitions, respectively. The corresponding RRs for CVD mortality were 1.79 (1.35-2.37), 1.67 (1.27-2.19), and 1.67 (1.27-2.20). Additionally, there was a significant trend for a higher risk of CVD mortality across waist circumference categories (<94, 94-102, and >102 cm) among men with at least two additional metabolic syndrome risk factors (P = 0.01). The prediction of mortality with IDF and NCEP metabolic syndrome criteria was comparable in men. Waist circumference is a valuable component of metabolic syndrome; however, the IDF requirement of an elevated waist circumference warrants caution given that a large proportion of men with normal waist circumference have multiple risk factors and an increased risk of mortality.

A mixed-method research to investigate the adoption of mobile devices and Web2.0 technologies among medical students and educators.

PubMed

Fan, Si; Radford, Jan; Fabian, Debbie

2016-04-19

The past decade has witnessed the increasing adoption of Web 2.0 technologies in medical education. Recently, the notion of digital habitats, Web 2.0 supported learning environments, has also come onto the scene. While there has been initial research on the use of digital habitats for educational purposes, very limited research has examined the adoption of digital habitats by medical students and educators on mobile devices. This paper reports the Stage 1 findings of a two-staged study. The whole study aimed to develop and implement a personal digital habitat, namely digiMe, for medical students and educators at an Australian university. The first stage, however, examined the types of Web 2.0 tools and mobile devices that are being used by potential digiMe users, and reasons for their adoption. In this first stage of research, data were collected through a questionnaire and semi-structured interviews. Questionnaire data collected from 104 participants were analysed using the Predictive Analytics SoftWare (PASW). Frequencies, median and mean values were pursued. Kruskal Wallis tests were then performed to examine variations between views of different participant groups. Notes from the 6 interviews, together with responses to the open-ended section of the questionnaire, were analysed using the constructivist grounded theory approach, to generate key themes relevant to the adoption of Web 2.0 tools and mobile devices. The findings reflected the wide use of mobile devices, including both smart phones and computing tablets, by medical students and educators for learning, teaching and professional development purposes. Among the 22 types of Web 2.0 tools investigated, less than half of these tools were frequently used by the participants, this reflects the mismatch between users' desires and their actual practice. Age and occupation appeared to be the influential factors for their adoption. Easy access to information and improved communication are main purposes. This paper highlights the desire of medical students and educators for a more effective use of Web 2.0 technologies and mobile devices, and the observed mismatch between the desire and their actual practice. It also recognises the critical role of medical education institutions in facilitating this practice to respond to the mismatch.

Inflammatory Biomarkers Predict Heart Failure Severity and Prognosis in Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: A Holistic Proteomic Approach.

PubMed

Hage, Camilla; Michaëlsson, Erik; Linde, Cecilia; Donal, Erwan; Daubert, Jean-Claude; Gan, Li-Ming; Lund, Lars H

2017-02-01

Underlying mechanisms in heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction remain unknown. We investigated cardiovascular plasma biomarkers in HF with preserved ejection fraction and their correlation to diastolic dysfunction, functional class, pathophysiological processes, and prognosis. In 86 stable patients with HF and EF ≥45% in the Karolinska Rennes (KaRen) biomarker substudy, biomarkers were quantified by a multiplex immunoassay. Orthogonal projection to latent structures by partial least square analysis was performed on 87 biomarkers and 240 clinical variables, ranking biomarkers associated with New York Heart Association (NYHA) Functional class and the composite outcome (all-cause mortality and HF hospitalization). Biomarkers significantly correlated with outcome were analyzed by multivariable Cox regression and correlations with echocardiographic measurements performed. The orthogonal partial least square outcome-predicting biomarker pattern was run against the Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) database, containing annotated data from the public domain. The orthogonal partial least square analyses identified 32 biomarkers correlated with NYHA class and 28 predicting outcomes. Among outcome-predicting biomarkers, growth/differentiation factor-15 was the strongest and an additional 7 were also significant in Cox regression analyses when adjusted for age, sex, and N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide: adrenomedullin (hazard ratio per log increase 2.53), agouti-related protein; (1.48), chitinase-3-like protein 1 (1.35), C-C motif chemokine 20 (1.35), fatty acid-binding protein (1.33), tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (2.29), and TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (0.34). Twenty-three of them correlated with diastolic dysfunction (E/e') and 5 with left atrial volume index. The IPA suggested that increased inflammation, immune activation with decreased necrosis and apoptosis preceded poor outcome. In HF with preserved ejection fraction, novel biomarkers of inflammation predict HF severity and prognosis that may complement or even outperform traditional markers, such as N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide. These findings lend support to a hypothesis implicating global systemic inflammation in HF with preserved ejection fraction. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00774709. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Do commonly used frailty models predict mortality, loss of autonomy and mental decline in older adults in northwestern Russia? A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Korystina, Elena; Zelenukha, Dmitry; Tadjibaev, Pulodjon; Gurina, Natalia; Turkeshi, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2016-05-09

Frailty prevalence differs across countries depending on the models used to assess it that are based on various conceptual and operational definitions. This study aims to assess the clinical validity of three frailty models among community-dwelling older adults in north-western Russia where there is a higher incidence of cardiovascular disease and lower life expectancy than in European countries. The Crystal study is a population-based prospective cohort study in Kolpino, St. Petersburg, Russia. A random sample of the population living in the district was stratified into two age groups: 65-75 (n = 305) and 75+ (n = 306) and had a baseline comprehensive health assessment followed by a second one after 33.4 +/-3 months. The total observation time was 47 +/-14.6 months. Frailty was assessed according to the models of Fried, Puts and Steverink-Slaets. Its association with mortality at 5 years follow-up as well as dependency, mental and physical decline at around 2.5 years follow up was explored by multivariable and time-to-event analyses. Mortality was predicted independently from age, sex and comorbidities only by the frail status of the Fried model in those over 75 years old [HR (95 % CI) = 2.50 (1.20-5.20)]. Mental decline was independently predicted only by pre-frail [OR (95 % CI) = 0.24 (0.10-0.55)] and frail [OR (95 % CI) = 0.196 (0.06-0.67)] status of Fried model in those 65-75 years old. The prediction of dependency and physical decline by pre-frail and frail status of any the three frailty models was not statistically significant in this cohort of older adults. None of the three frailty models was valid at predicting 5 years mortality and disability, mental and physical decline at 2.5 years in a cohort of older adults in north-west Russia. Frailty by the Fried model had only limited value for mortality in those 75 years old and mental decline in those 65-75 years old. Further research is needed to identify valid frailty markers for older adults in this population.

The Compassion Fatigue Scale: Its Use With Social Workers Following Urban Disaster

PubMed Central

Adams, Richard E.; Figley, Charles R.; Boscarino, Joseph A.

2008-01-01

Objective The present study has two goals: to assess the difference between secondary trauma and job burnout and to examine the utility of secondary trauma in predicting psychological distress. Method The data come from a survey of social workers (N = 236) living in New York City 20 months following the September 11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center (WTC). Results Social workers’ involvement in WTC recovery efforts is related to secondary trauma but not burnout. Analyses also reveal that both secondary trauma and burnout are related to psychological distress after controlling for other risk factors. Conclusion This study supports the importance of compassion fatigue as a risk factor for social workers counseling traumatized clients and its association with psychological problems. PMID:18458750

Dimensional scaling for impact cratering and perforation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watts, Alan J.; Atkinson, Dale

1995-01-01

POD Associates have revisited the issue of generic scaling laws able to adequately predict (within better than 20 percent) cratering in semi-infinite targets and perforations through finite thickness targets. The approach used was to apply physical logic for hydrodynamics in a consistent manner able to account for chunky-body impacts such that the only variables needed are those directly related to known material properties for both the impactor and target. The analyses were compared and verified versus CTH hydrodynamic code calculations and existing data. Comparisons with previous scaling laws were also performed to identify which (if any) were good for generic purposes. This paper is a short synopsis of the full report available through the NASA Langley Research Center, LDEF Science Office.

Social Anxiety Predicts Aggression in Children with ASD: Clinical Comparisons with Socially Anxious and Oppositional Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pugliese, Cara E.; White, Bradley A.; White, Susan W.; Ollendick, Thomas H.

2013-01-01

The present study examined the degree to which social anxiety predicts aggression in children with high functioning autism spectrum disorders (HFASD, n = 20) compared to children with Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD, n = 20) or with Oppositional Defiant Disorder or Conduct Disorder (ODD/CD, n = 20). As predicted, children with HFASD reported levels…

Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Zhu, Jieshun; Li, Zhongxian; Chen, Haishan; Zeng, Gang

2017-08-01

This study examined the global sea surface temperature (SST) predictions by a so-called multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization method which was applied in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). Different from most operational climate prediction practices which are initialized by a specific ocean analysis system, the MAE method is based on multiple ocean analyses. In the paper, the MAE method was first justified by analyzing the ocean temperature variability in four ocean analyses which all are/were applied for operational climate predictions either at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts or at NCEP. It was found that these systems exhibit substantial uncertainties in estimating the ocean states, especially at the deep layers. Further, a set of MAE hindcasts was conducted based on the four ocean analyses with CFSv2, starting from each April during 1982-2007. The MAE hindcasts were verified against a subset of hindcasts from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project. Comparisons suggested that MAE shows better SST predictions than CFSRR over most regions where ocean dynamics plays a vital role in SST evolutions, such as the El Niño and Atlantic Niño regions. Furthermore, significant improvements were also found in summer precipitation predictions over the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, for which the local SST prediction improvements should be responsible. The prediction improvements by MAE imply a problem for most current climate predictions which are based on a specific ocean analysis system. That is, their predictions would drift towards states biased by errors inherent in their ocean initialization system, and thus have large prediction errors. In contrast, MAE arguably has an advantage by sampling such structural uncertainties, and could efficiently cancel these errors out in their predictions.

Predicting Trans-epithelial Phototherapeutic Keratectomy Outcomes Using Fourier-Domain Optical Coherence Tomography

PubMed Central

Cleary, Catherine; Li, Yan; Tang, Maolong; Gendy, Nehal Samy El; Huang, David

2014-01-01

Purpose To use Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography (FD-OCT) to predict trans-epithelial phototherapeutic keratectomy (TE-PTK) outcomes. Methods Prospective case series. Subjects with anterior stromal corneal opacities underwent excimer laser PTK combined with PRK using the VISX S4 excimer laser (AMO, Inc., Santa Ana, CA). Pre- and postoperative FD-OCT images were used to develop a simulation algorithm to predict treatment outcomes. Main Outcome Measures Pre- and postoperative uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA) and corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA). Postoperative corneal thickness and manifest refraction spherical equivalent (MRSE) were analyzed using multivariate linear regression. Results Nine eyes of 8 patients were treated. Nominal ablation depth was 75 – 177 μm centrally and 62 –185 μm peripherally. Measured PTK ablation depths were 20% higher centrally and 26% higher peripherally, compared to laser settings. Postoperatively, mean UDVA was 20/41 (range 20/25 – 20/80) compared to 20/103 (range 20/60 – 20/400) preoperatively. Mean CDVA was 20/29 (range 20/15 – 20/60) compared to 20/45 (range 20/30 – 20/80) preoperatively. MRSE was +1.38±2.37 D compared to −2.59±2.83D (mean±SD). Mean astigmatism magnitude was 1.14±0.83D compared to 1.40±1.18D preoperatively. Postoperative MRSE correlated strongly with ablation settings, central and peripheral epithelial thickness (r=0.99, p<0.00001 ). Central island remained difficult to predict and limited visual outcomes in some cases. Conclusion OCT measurements of opacity depth and 3D ablation simulation provide valuable guidance PTK planning. Post-PTK refraction may be predicted with a regression formula which uses OCT epithelial thickness measurements. Laser ablation rates described in this study only apply to the VisX laser. PMID:24452208

Placental growth factor (alone or in combination with soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1) as an aid to the assessment of women with suspected pre-eclampsia: systematic review and economic analysis.

PubMed

Frampton, Geoff K; Jones, Jeremy; Rose, Micah; Payne, Liz

2016-11-01

Pre-eclampsia (PE) prediction based on blood pressure, presence of protein in the urine, symptoms and laboratory test abnormalities can result in false-positive diagnoses. This may lead to unnecessary antenatal admissions and preterm delivery. Blood tests that measure placental growth factor (PlGF) or the ratio of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) to PlGF could aid prediction of PE if either were added to routine clinical assessment or used as a replacement for proteinuria testing. To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of PlGF-based tests for patients referred to secondary care with suspected PE in weeks 20-37 of pregnancy. Systematic reviews and an economic analysis. Bibliographic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and The Cochrane Library and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects were searched up to July 2015 for English-language references. Conferences, websites, systematic reviews and confidential company submissions were also accessed. Systematic reviews of test accuracy and economic studies were conducted to inform an economic analysis. Test accuracy studies were required to include women with suspected PE and report quantitatively the accuracy of PlGF-based tests; their risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) criteria. The economic studies review had broad eligibility criteria to capture any types of economic analysis; critical appraisal employed standard checklists consistent with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence criteria. Study selection, critical appraisal and data extraction in both reviews were performed by two reviewers. An independent economic analysis was conducted based on a decision tree model, using the best evidence available. The model evaluates costs (2014, GBP) from a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. Given the short analysis time horizon, no discounting was undertaken. Four studies were included in the systematic review of test accuracy: two on Alere's Triage ® PlGF test (Alere, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA) for predicting PE requiring delivery within a specified time and two on Roche Diagnostics' Elecsys ® sFlt-1 to PlGF ratio test (Roche Diagnostics GmbH, Mannheim, Germany) for predicting PE within a specified time. Three studies were included in the systematic review of economic studies, and two confidential company economic analyses were assessed separately. Study heterogeneity precluded meta-analyses of test accuracy or cost-analysis outcomes, so narrative syntheses were conducted to inform the independent economic model. The model predicts that, when supplementing routine clinical assessment for rule-out and rule-in of PE, the two tests would be cost-saving in weeks 20-35 of gestation, and marginally cost-saving in weeks 35-37, but with minuscule impact on quality of life. Length of neonatal intensive care unit stay was the most influential parameter in sensitivity analyses. All other sensitivity analyses had negligible effects on results. No head-to-head comparisons of the tests were identified. No studies investigated accuracy of PlGF-based tests when used as a replacement for proteinuria testing. Test accuracy studies were found to be at high risk of clinical review bias. The Triage and Elecsys tests would save money if added to routine clinical assessment for PE. The magnitude of savings is uncertain, but the tests remain cost-saving under worst-case assumptions. Further research is required to clarify how the test results would be interpreted and applied in clinical practice. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015017670. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Visual Versus Fully Automated Analyses of 18F-FDG and Amyloid PET for Prediction of Dementia Due to Alzheimer Disease in Mild Cognitive Impairment.

PubMed

Grimmer, Timo; Wutz, Carolin; Alexopoulos, Panagiotis; Drzezga, Alexander; Förster, Stefan; Förstl, Hans; Goldhardt, Oliver; Ortner, Marion; Sorg, Christian; Kurz, Alexander

2016-02-01

Biomarkers of Alzheimer disease (AD) can be imaged in vivo and can be used for diagnostic and prognostic purposes in people with cognitive decline and dementia. Indicators of amyloid deposition such as (11)C-Pittsburgh compound B ((11)C-PiB) PET are primarily used to identify or rule out brain diseases that are associated with amyloid pathology but have also been deployed to forecast the clinical course. Indicators of neuronal metabolism including (18)F-FDG PET demonstrate the localization and severity of neuronal dysfunction and are valuable for differential diagnosis and for predicting the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia. It is a matter of debate whether to analyze these images visually or using automated techniques. Therefore, we compared the usefulness of both imaging methods and both analyzing strategies to predict dementia due to AD. In MCI participants, a baseline examination, including clinical and imaging assessments, and a clinical follow-up examination after a planned interval of 24 mo were performed. Of 28 MCI patients, 9 developed dementia due to AD, 2 developed frontotemporal dementia, and 1 developed moderate dementia of unknown etiology. The positive and negative predictive values and the accuracy of visual and fully automated analyses of (11)C-PiB for the prediction of progression to dementia due to AD were 0.50, 1.00, and 0.68, respectively, for the visual and 0.53, 1.00, and 0.71, respectively, for the automated analyses. Positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of fully automated analyses of (18)F-FDG PET were 0.37, 0.78, and 0.50, respectively. Results of visual analyses were highly variable between raters but were superior to automated analyses. Both (18)F-FDG and (11)C-PiB imaging appear to be of limited use for predicting the progression from MCI to dementia due to AD in short-term follow-up, irrespective of the strategy of analysis. On the other hand, amyloid PET is extremely useful to rule out underlying AD. The findings of the present study favor a fully automated method of analysis for (11)C-PiB assessments and a visual analysis by experts for (18)F-FDG assessments. © 2016 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Application of the Rosner-Wei Risk-Prediction Model to Estimate Sexual Orientation Patterns in Colon Cancer Risk in a Prospective Cohort of U.S. Women

PubMed Central

Austin, S. Bryn; Pazaris, Mathew J.; Wei, Esther K.; Rosner, Bernard; Kennedy, Grace A.; Bowen, Deborah; Spiegelman, Donna

2014-01-01

Purpose We examined whether lesbian and bisexual women may be at greater risk of colon cancer (CC) than heterosexual women. Methods Working with a large cohort of U.S. women ages 25-64 years, we analyzed 20 years of prospective data to estimate CC incidence, based on known risk factors by applying the Rosner-Wei CC risk-prediction model. Comparing to heterosexual women, we calculated for lesbian and bisexual women the predicted one-year incidence rate (IR) per 100,000 person-years and estimated incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), based on each woman’s comprehensive risk factor profile. Results Analyses included 1,373,817 person-years of data from 66,257 women. For each sexual orientation group, mean predicted one-year CC IR per 100,000 person-years was slightly over 12 cases for each of the sexual orientation groups. After controlling for confounders in fully adjusted models and compared to heterosexuals, no significant differences in IRR were observed for lesbians (IRR 1.01; 95% CI 0.99, 1.04) or bisexuals (IRR 1.01; 95% CI 0.98, 1.04). Conclusions CC risk is similar across all sexual orientation subgroups, with all groups comparably affected. Health professionals must ensure that prevention, screening, and treatment programs are adequately reaching each of these communities. PMID:24852207

Predicting the extent of heterogeneity in meta-analysis, using empirical data from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews

PubMed Central

Turner, Rebecca M; Davey, Jonathan; Clarke, Mike J; Thompson, Simon G; Higgins, Julian PT

2012-01-01

Background Many meta-analyses contain only a small number of studies, which makes it difficult to estimate the extent of between-study heterogeneity. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, and offers advantages over conventional random-effects meta-analysis. To assist in this, we provide empirical evidence on the likely extent of heterogeneity in particular areas of health care. Methods Our analyses included 14 886 meta-analyses from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. We classified each meta-analysis according to the type of outcome, type of intervention comparison and medical specialty. By modelling the study data from all meta-analyses simultaneously, using the log odds ratio scale, we investigated the impact of meta-analysis characteristics on the underlying between-study heterogeneity variance. Predictive distributions were obtained for the heterogeneity expected in future meta-analyses. Results Between-study heterogeneity variances for meta-analyses in which the outcome was all-cause mortality were found to be on average 17% (95% CI 10–26) of variances for other outcomes. In meta-analyses comparing two active pharmacological interventions, heterogeneity was on average 75% (95% CI 58–95) of variances for non-pharmacological interventions. Meta-analysis size was found to have only a small effect on heterogeneity. Predictive distributions are presented for nine different settings, defined by type of outcome and type of intervention comparison. For example, for a planned meta-analysis comparing a pharmacological intervention against placebo or control with a subjectively measured outcome, the predictive distribution for heterogeneity is a log-normal (−2.13, 1.582) distribution, which has a median value of 0.12. In an example of meta-analysis of six studies, incorporating external evidence led to a smaller heterogeneity estimate and a narrower confidence interval for the combined intervention effect. Conclusions Meta-analysis characteristics were strongly associated with the degree of between-study heterogeneity, and predictive distributions for heterogeneity differed substantially across settings. The informative priors provided will be very beneficial in future meta-analyses including few studies. PMID:22461129

Twenty-Four-Hour Blood Pressure Monitoring to Predict and Assess Impact of Renal Denervation: The DENERHTN Study (Renal Denervation for Hypertension).

PubMed

Gosse, Philippe; Cremer, Antoine; Pereira, Helena; Bobrie, Guillaume; Chatellier, Gilles; Chamontin, Bernard; Courand, Pierre-Yves; Delsart, Pascal; Denolle, Thierry; Dourmap, Caroline; Ferrari, Emile; Girerd, Xavier; Michel Halimi, Jean; Herpin, Daniel; Lantelme, Pierre; Monge, Matthieu; Mounier-Vehier, Claire; Mourad, Jean-Jacques; Ormezzano, Olivier; Ribstein, Jean; Rossignol, Patrick; Sapoval, Marc; Vaïsse, Bernard; Zannad, Faiez; Azizi, Michel

2017-03-01

The DENERHTN trial (Renal Denervation for Hypertension) confirmed the blood pressure (BP) lowering efficacy of renal denervation added to a standardized stepped-care antihypertensive treatment for resistant hypertension at 6 months. We report here the effect of denervation on 24-hour BP and its variability and look for parameters that predicted the BP response. Patients with resistant hypertension were randomly assigned to denervation plus stepped-care treatment or treatment alone (control). Average and standard deviation of 24-hour, daytime, and nighttime BP and the smoothness index were calculated on recordings performed at randomization and 6 months. Responders were defined as a 6-month 24-hour systolic BP reduction ≥20 mm Hg. Analyses were performed on the per-protocol population. The significantly greater BP reduction in the denervation group was associated with a higher smoothness index ( P =0.02). Variability of 24-hour, daytime, and nighttime BP did not change significantly from baseline to 6 months in both groups. The number of responders was greater in the denervation (20/44, 44.5%) than in the control group (11/53, 20.8%; P =0.01). In the discriminant analysis, baseline average nighttime systolic BP and standard deviation were significant predictors of the systolic BP response in the denervation group only, allowing adequate responder classification of 70% of the patients. Our results show that denervation lowers ambulatory BP homogeneously over 24 hours in patients with resistant hypertension and suggest that nighttime systolic BP and variability are predictors of the BP response to denervation. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01570777. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Predictive validity of the HCR-20 for inpatient aggression: the effect of intellectual disability on accuracy.

PubMed

O'Shea, L E; Picchioni, M M; McCarthy, J; Mason, F L; Dickens, G L

2015-11-01

People with intellectual disability (ID) account for a large proportion of aggressive incidents in secure and forensic psychiatric services. Although the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management 20 (HCR-20) has good predictive validity in inpatient settings, it does not perform equally in all groups and there is little evidence for its efficacy in those with ID. A pseudo-prospective cohort study of the predictive efficacy of the HCR-20 for those with ID (n = 109) was conducted in a UK secure mental health setting using routinely collected risk data. Performance of the HCR-20 in the ID group was compared with a comparison group of adult inpatients without an ID (n = 504). Analysis controlled for potential covariates including security level, length of stay, gender and diagnosis. The HCR-20 total score was a significant predictor of any aggression and of physical aggression for both groups, although the area under the curve values did not reach the threshold for a large effect size. The clinical subscale performed significantly better in those without an ID compared with those with. The ID group had a greater number of relevant historical and risk management items. The clinicians' summary judgment significantly predicted both types of aggressive outcomes in the ID group, but did not predict either in those without an ID. This study demonstrates that, after controlling for a range of potential covariates, the HCR-20 is a significant predictor of inpatient aggression in people with an ID and performs as well as for a comparison group of mentally disordered individuals without ID. The potency of HCR-20 subscales and items varied between the ID and comparison groups suggesting important target areas for improved prediction and risk management interventions in those with ID. © 2015 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Use of Web 2.0 Tools by Students in Learning and Leisure Contexts: A Study in a Portuguese Institution of Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costa, Carolina; Alvelos, Helena; Teixeira, Leonor

2016-01-01

This study analyses and compares the use of Web 2.0 tools by students in both learning and leisure contexts. Data were collected based on a questionnaire applied to 234 students from the University of Aveiro (Portugal) and the results were analysed by using descriptive analysis, paired samples t-tests, cluster analyses and Kruskal-Wallis tests.…

Identification of a Novel Deletion in AVP-NPII Gene in a Patient with Central Diabetes Insipidus.

PubMed

Deniz, Ferhat; Acar, Ceren; Saglar, Emel; Erdem, Beril; Karaduman, Tugce; Yonem, Arif; Cagiltay, Eylem; Ay, Seyit Ahmet; Mergen, Hatice

2015-01-01

Central Diabetes Insipidus (CDI) is caused by a deficiency of antidiuretic hormone and characterized by polyuria, polydipsia and inability to concentrate urine. Our objective was to present the results of the molecular analyses of AVP-neurophysin II (AVP-NPII) gene in a large familial neurohypophyseal (central) DI pedigree. A male patient and his family members were analyzed and the prospective clinical data were collected. The proband applied to hospital for eligibility to be a recruit in Armed Forces. The patient had severe polyuria (20 L/day), polydipsia (20.5 L/day), fatique, and deep thirstiness. CDI was confirmed with the water deprivation-desmopressin test according to an increase in urine osmolality from 162 mOsm/kg to 432 mOsm/kg after desmopressin acetate injection. To evaluate the coding regions of AVP-NPII gene, polymerase chain reactions were performed and amplified regions were submitted to direct sequence analysis. We detected a heterozygous three base pair deletion at codon 69-70 (207_209delGGC) in exon 2, which lead to a deletion of the amino acid alanine. A three-dimensional protein structure prediction was shown for the deleted AVP-NPII and compared with the wild type. The three base pair deletion may yield an abnormal AVP precursor in neurophysin moiety, but further functional analyses are needed to understand the function of the deleted protein. © 2015 by the Association of Clinical Scientists, Inc.

[Non-small cell lung cancer. Subtyping and predictive molecular marker investigations in cytology].

PubMed

Savic, S; Bihl, M P; Bubendorf, L

2012-07-01

The diagnosis and treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) have been revolutionized over the last few years. Requirements for cytopathologists in lung cancer diagnosis have therefore changed. The general diagnostic category of NSLC is no longer sufficient. In addition cytological specimens need to be evaluated for adequacy regarding predictive marker analyses. Accurate NSCLC subtyping with a distinction of adenocarcinoma from squamous cell carcinoma is crucial for treatment decisions as the subtype will decide on the chemotherapy regimen and the choice of predictive marker analyses for targeted treatment. In the majority of cases, the subtype can be diagnosed by morphology alone. Cytology is equally well suited as biopsy specimens for the assessment of molecular predictive markers. The best results are achieved when both cytology and biopsy specimens are compared to choose the most appropriate specimen for morphological subtyping and molecular testing. In this paper, we discuss special issues of NSCLC subtyping and currently recommended predictive molecular marker analyses.

Entrance and exit region friction factor models for annular seal analysis. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elrod, David Alan

1988-01-01

The Mach number definition and boundary conditions in Nelson's nominally-centered, annular gas seal analysis are revised. A method is described for determining the wall shear stress characteristics of an annular gas seal experimentally. Two friction factor models are developed for annular seal analysis; one model is based on flat-plate flow theory; the other uses empirical entrance and exit region friction factors. The friction factor predictions of the models are compared to experimental results. Each friction model is used in an annular gas seal analysis. The seal characteristics predicted by the two seal analyses are compared to experimental results and to the predictions of Nelson's analysis. The comparisons are for smooth-rotor seals with smooth and honeycomb stators. The comparisons show that the analysis which uses empirical entrance and exit region shear stress models predicts the static and stability characteristics of annular gas seals better than the other analyses. The analyses predict direct stiffness poorly.

Maternal sensitivity, infant limbic structure volume and functional connectivity: a preliminary study

PubMed Central

Rifkin-Graboi, A; Kong, L; Sim, L W; Sanmugam, S; Broekman, B F P; Chen, H; Wong, E; Kwek, K; Saw, S-M; Chong, Y-S; Gluckman, P D; Fortier, M V; Pederson, D; Meaney, M J; Qiu, A

2015-01-01

Mechanisms underlying the profound parental effects on cognitive, emotional and social development in humans remain poorly understood. Studies with nonhuman models suggest variations in parental care affect the limbic system, influential to learning, autobiography and emotional regulation. In some research, nonoptimal care relates to decreases in neurogenesis, although other work suggests early-postnatal social adversity accelerates the maturation of limbic structures associated with emotional learning. We explored whether maternal sensitivity predicts human limbic system development and functional connectivity patterns in a small sample of human infants. When infants were 6 months of age, 20 mother–infant dyads attended a laboratory-based observational session and the infants underwent neuroimaging at the same age. After considering age at imaging, household income and postnatal maternal anxiety, regression analyses demonstrated significant indirect associations between maternal sensitivity and bilateral hippocampal volume at six months, with the majority of associations between sensitivity and the amygdala demonstrating similar indirect, but not significant results. Moreover, functional analyses revealed direct associations between maternal sensitivity and connectivity between the hippocampus and areas important for emotional regulation and socio-emotional functioning. Sensitivity additionally predicted indirect associations between limbic structures and regions related to autobiographical memory. Our volumetric results are consistent with research indicating accelerated limbic development in response to early social adversity, and in combination with our functional results, if replicated in a larger sample, may suggest that subtle, but important, variations in maternal care influence neuroanatomical trajectories important to future cognitive and emotional functioning. PMID:26506054

Risk of type 1 diabetes progression in islet autoantibody-positive children can be further stratified using expression patterns of multiple genes implicated in peripheral blood lymphocyte activation and function.

PubMed

Jin, Yulan; Sharma, Ashok; Bai, Shan; Davis, Colleen; Liu, Haitao; Hopkins, Diane; Barriga, Kathy; Rewers, Marian; She, Jin-Xiong

2014-07-01

There is tremendous scientific and clinical value to further improving the predictive power of autoantibodies because autoantibody-positive (AbP) children have heterogeneous rates of progression to clinical diabetes. This study explored the potential of gene expression profiles as biomarkers for risk stratification among 104 AbP subjects from the Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young (DAISY) using a discovery data set based on microarray and a validation data set based on real-time RT-PCR. The microarray data identified 454 candidate genes with expression levels associated with various type 1 diabetes (T1D) progression rates. RT-PCR analyses of the top-27 candidate genes confirmed 5 genes (BACH2, IGLL3, EIF3A, CDC20, and TXNDC5) associated with differential progression and implicated in lymphocyte activation and function. Multivariate analyses of these five genes in the discovery and validation data sets identified and confirmed four multigene models (BI, ICE, BICE, and BITE, with each letter representing a gene) that consistently stratify high- and low-risk subsets of AbP subjects with hazard ratios >6 (P < 0.01). The results suggest that these genes may be involved in T1D pathogenesis and potentially serve as excellent gene expression biomarkers to predict the risk of progression to clinical diabetes for AbP subjects. © 2014 by the American Diabetes Association.

A review on data and predictions of water dielectric spectra for calculations of van der Waals surface forces.

PubMed

Wang, Jianlong; Nguyen, Anh V

2017-12-01

Van der Waals forces are one of the important components of intermolecular, colloidal and surface forces governing many phenomena and processes. The latest examples include the colloidal interactions between hydrophobic colloids and interfaces in ambient (non-degassed) water in which dissolved gases and nanobubbles are shown to affect the van der Waals attractions significantly. The advanced computation of van der Waals forces in aqueous systems by the Lifshitz theory requires reliable data for water dielectric spectra. In this paper we review the available predictions of water dielectric spectra for calculating colloidal and surface van der Waals forces. Specifically, the available experimental data for the real and imaginary parts of the complex dielectric function of liquid water in the microwave, IR and UV regions and various corresponding predictions of the water spectra are critically reviewed. The data in the UV region are critical, but the available predictions are still based on the outdated data obtained in 1974 (for frequency only up to 25.5eV). We also reviewed and analysed the experimental data obtained for the UV region in 2000 (for frequency up to 50eV) and 2015 (for frequency up to 100eV). The 1974 and 2000 data require extrapolations to higher frequencies needed for calculating the van der Waals forces but remain inaccurate. Our analysis shows that the latest data of 2015 do not require the extrapolation and can be used to reliably calculate van der Waals forces. The most recent water dielectric spectra gives the (non-retarded) Hamaker constant, A=5.20×10 -20 J, for foam films of liquid water. This review provides the most updated and reliable water dielectric spectra to compute van der Waals forces in aqueous systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What shapes 7-year-olds' subjective well-being? Prospective analysis of early childhood and parenting using the Growing Up in Scotland study.

PubMed

Parkes, Alison; Sweeting, Helen; Wight, Daniel

2016-10-01

Research on predictors of young children's psychosocial well-being currently relies on adult-reported outcomes. This study investigated whether early family circumstances and parenting predict 7-year-olds' subjective well-being. Information on supportive friendships, liking school and life satisfaction was obtained from 7-year-olds in one Growing Up in Scotland birth cohort in 2012-2013 (N = 2869). Mothers provided information on early childhood factors from 10 to 34 months, parenting (dysfunctional parenting, home learning and protectiveness) from 46 to 70 months, and 7-year-olds' adjustment. Multivariable path models explored associations between early childhood factors, parenting and 7-year-olds' subjective well-being. Supplementary analyses compared findings with those for mother-reported adjustment. In a model of early childhood factors, maternal distress predicted less supportive friendships and lower life satisfaction (coefficients -0.12), poverty predicted less supportive friendships (-0.09) and remote location predicted all outcomes (-0.20 to -0.27). In a model with parenting added, dysfunctional parenting predicted all outcomes (-10 to -0.16), home learning predicted liking school (0.11) and life satisfaction (0.08), and protectiveness predicted life satisfaction (0.08). Effects of maternal distress were fully mediated, largely via dysfunctional parenting, while home learning mediated negative effects of low maternal education. Direct effects of poverty and remote location remained. Findings for mother-reported child adjustment were broadly similar. Unique prospective data show parenting and early childhood impact 7-year-olds' subjective well-being. They underline the benefits for children of targeting parental mental health and dysfunctional parenting, and helping parents develop skills to support children at home and school.

Measurement of the angular coefficients in Z-boson events using electron and muon pairs from data taken at √{s}=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; Abdinov, O.; Abeloos, B.; Aben, R.; AbouZeid, O. S.; Abraham, N. L.; Abramowicz, H.; Abreu, H.; Abreu, R.; Abulaiti, Y.; Acharya, B. S.; Adamczyk, L.; Adams, D. L.; Adelman, J.; Adomeit, S.; Adye, T.; Affolder, A. A.; Agatonovic-Jovin, T.; Agricola, J.; Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.; Ahlen, S. P.; Ahmadov, F.; Aielli, G.; Akerstedt, H.; Åkesson, T. P. A.; Akimov, A. V.; Alberghi, G. L.; Albert, J.; Albrand, S.; Alconada Verzini, M. J.; Aleksa, M.; Aleksandrov, I. N.; Alexa, C.; Alexander, G.; Alexopoulos, T.; Alhroob, M.; Aliev, M.; Alimonti, G.; Alison, J.; Alkire, S. P.; Allbrooke, B. M. M.; Allen, B. W.; Allport, P. P.; Aloisio, A.; Alonso, A.; Alonso, F.; Alpigiani, C.; Alstaty, M.; Alvarez Gonzalez, B.; Álvarez Piqueras, D.; Alviggi, M. G.; Amadio, B. T.; Amako, K.; Amaral Coutinho, Y.; Amelung, C.; Amidei, D.; Amor Dos Santos, S. P.; Amorim, A.; Amoroso, S.; Amundsen, G.; Anastopoulos, C.; Ancu, L. S.; Andari, N.; Andeen, T.; Anders, C. F.; Anders, G.; Anders, J. K.; Anderson, K. J.; Andreazza, A.; Andrei, V.; Angelidakis, S.; Angelozzi, I.; Anger, P.; Angerami, A.; Anghinolfi, F.; Anisenkov, A. V.; Anjos, N.; Annovi, A.; Antonelli, M.; Antonov, A.; Antos, J.; Anulli, F.; Aoki, M.; Aperio Bella, L.; Arabidze, G.; Arai, Y.; Araque, J. P.; Arce, A. T. H.; Arduh, F. A.; Arguin, J.-F.; Argyropoulos, S.; Arik, M.; Armbruster, A. J.; Armitage, L. J.; Arnaez, O.; Arnold, H.; Arratia, M.; Arslan, O.; Artamonov, A.; Artoni, G.; Artz, S.; Asai, S.; Asbah, N.; Ashkenazi, A.; Åsman, B.; Asquith, L.; Assamagan, K.; Astalos, R.; Atkinson, M.; Atlay, N. B.; Augsten, K.; Avolio, G.; Axen, B.; Ayoub, M. K.; Azuelos, G.; Baak, M. A.; Baas, A. E.; Baca, M. J.; Bachacou, H.; Bachas, K.; Backes, M.; Backhaus, M.; Bagiacchi, P.; Bagnaia, P.; Bai, Y.; Baines, J. T.; Baker, O. K.; Baldin, E. M.; Balek, P.; Balestri, T.; Balli, F.; Balunas, W. K.; Banas, E.; Banerjee, Sw.; Bannoura, A. A. E.; Barak, L.; Barberio, E. 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T.; Shapiro, M.; Shatalov, P. B.; Shaw, K.; Shaw, S. M.; Shcherbakova, A.; Shehu, C. Y.; Sherwood, P.; Shi, L.; Shimizu, S.; Shimmin, C. O.; Shimojima, M.; Shiyakova, M.; Shmeleva, A.; Shoaleh Saadi, D.; Shochet, M. J.; Shojaii, S.; Shrestha, S.; Shulga, E.; Shupe, M. A.; Sicho, P.; Sidebo, P. E.; Sidiropoulou, O.; Sidorov, D.; Sidoti, A.; Siegert, F.; Sijacki, Dj.; Silva, J.; Silverstein, S. B.; Simak, V.; Simard, O.; Simic, Lj.; Simion, S.; Simioni, E.; Simmons, B.; Simon, D.; Simon, M.; Sinervo, P.; Sinev, N. B.; Sioli, M.; Siragusa, G.; Sivoklokov, S. Yu.; Sjölin, J.; Sjursen, T. B.; Skinner, M. B.; Skottowe, H. P.; Skubic, P.; Slater, M.; Slavicek, T.; Slawinska, M.; Sliwa, K.; Slovak, R.; Smakhtin, V.; Smart, B. H.; Smestad, L.; Smiesko, J.; Smirnov, S. Yu.; Smirnov, Y.; Smirnova, L. N.; Smirnova, O.; Smith, M. N. K.; Smith, R. W.; Smizanska, M.; Smolek, K.; Snesarev, A. A.; Snyder, S.; Sobie, R.; Socher, F.; Soffer, A.; Soh, D. A.; Sokhrannyi, G.; Solans Sanchez, C. A.; Solar, M.; Soldatov, E. Yu.; Soldevila, U.; Solodkov, A. A.; Soloshenko, A.; Solovyanov, O. V.; Solovyev, V.; Sommer, P.; Son, H.; Song, H. Y.; Sood, A.; Sopczak, A.; Sopko, V.; Sorin, V.; Sosa, D.; Sotiropoulou, C. L.; Soualah, R.; Soukharev, A. M.; South, D.; Sowden, B. C.; Spagnolo, S.; Spalla, M.; Spangenberg, M.; Spanò, F.; Sperlich, D.; Spettel, F.; Spighi, R.; Spigo, G.; Spiller, L. A.; Spousta, M.; Denis, R. D. St.; Stabile, A.; Stamen, R.; Stamm, S.; Stanecka, E.; Stanek, R. W.; Stanescu, C.; Stanescu-Bellu, M.; Stanitzki, M. M.; Stapnes, S.; Starchenko, E. A.; Stark, G. H.; Stark, J.; Staroba, P.; Starovoitov, P.; Stärz, S.; Staszewski, R.; Steinberg, P.; Stelzer, B.; Stelzer, H. J.; Stelzer-Chilton, O.; Stenzel, H.; Stewart, G. A.; Stillings, J. A.; Stockton, M. C.; Stoebe, M.; Stoicea, G.; Stolte, P.; Stonjek, S.; Stradling, A. R.; Straessner, A.; Stramaglia, M. E.; Strandberg, J.; Strandberg, S.; Strandlie, A.; Strauss, M.; Strizenec, P.; Ströhmer, R.; Strom, D. M.; Stroynowski, R.; Strubig, A.; Stucci, S. A.; Stugu, B.; Styles, N. A.; Su, D.; Su, J.; Subramaniam, R.; Suchek, S.; Sugaya, Y.; Suk, M.; Sulin, V. V.; Sultansoy, S.; Sumida, T.; Sun, S.; Sun, X.; Sundermann, J. E.; Suruliz, K.; Susinno, G.; Sutton, M. R.; Suzuki, S.; Svatos, M.; Swiatlowski, M.; Sykora, I.; Sykora, T.; Ta, D.; Taccini, C.; Tackmann, K.; Taenzer, J.; Taffard, A.; Tafirout, R.; Taiblum, N.; Takai, H.; Takashima, R.; Takeshita, T.; Takubo, Y.; Talby, M.; Talyshev, A. A.; Tan, K. G.; Tanaka, J.; Tanaka, R.; Tanaka, S.; Tannenwald, B. B.; Tapia Araya, S.; Tapprogge, S.; Tarem, S.; Tartarelli, G. F.; Tas, P.; Tasevsky, M.; Tashiro, T.; Tassi, E.; Tavares Delgado, A.; Tayalati, Y.; Taylor, A. C.; Taylor, G. N.; Taylor, P. T. E.; Taylor, W.; Teischinger, F. A.; Teixeira-Dias, P.; Temming, K. K.; Temple, D.; Ten Kate, H.; Teng, P. K.; Teoh, J. J.; Tepel, F.; Terada, S.; Terashi, K.; Terron, J.; Terzo, S.; Testa, M.; Teuscher, R. J.; Theveneaux-Pelzer, T.; Thomas, J. P.; Thomas-Wilsker, J.; Thompson, E. N.; Thompson, P. D.; Thompson, A. S.; Thomsen, L. A.; Thomson, E.; Thomson, M.; Tibbetts, M. J.; Ticse Torres, R. E.; Tikhomirov, V. O.; Tikhonov, Yu. A.; Timoshenko, S.; Tipton, P.; Tisserant, S.; Todome, K.; Todorov, T.; Todorova-Nova, S.; Tojo, J.; Tokár, S.; Tokushuku, K.; Tolley, E.; Tomlinson, L.; Tomoto, M.; Tompkins, L.; Toms, K.; Tong, B.; Torrence, E.; Torres, H.; Torró Pastor, E.; Toth, J.; Touchard, F.; Tovey, D. R.; Trefzger, T.; Tricoli, A.; Trigger, I. M.; Trincaz-Duvoid, S.; Tripiana, M. F.; Trischuk, W.; Trocmé, B.; Trofymov, A.; Troncon, C.; Trottier-McDonald, M.; Trovatelli, M.; Truong, L.; Trzebinski, M.; Trzupek, A.; Tseng, J. C.-L.; Tsiareshka, P. V.; Tsipolitis, G.; Tsirintanis, N.; Tsiskaridze, S.; Tsiskaridze, V.; Tskhadadze, E. G.; Tsui, K. M.; Tsukerman, I. I.; Tsulaia, V.; Tsuno, S.; Tsybychev, D.; Tudorache, A.; Tudorache, V.; Tuna, A. N.; Tupputi, S. A.; Turchikhin, S.; Turecek, D.; Turgeman, D.; Turra, R.; Turvey, A. J.; Tuts, P. M.; Tyndel, M.; Ucchielli, G.; Ueda, I.; Ueno, R.; Ughetto, M.; Ukegawa, F.; Unal, G.; Undrus, A.; Unel, G.; Ungaro, F. C.; Unno, Y.; Unverdorben, C.; Urban, J.; Urquijo, P.; Urrejola, P.; Usai, G.; Usanova, A.; Vacavant, L.; Vacek, V.; Vachon, B.; Valderanis, C.; Valdes Santurio, E.; Valencic, N.; Valentinetti, S.; Valero, A.; Valery, L.; Valkar, S.; Vallecorsa, S.; Valls Ferrer, J. A.; Van Den Wollenberg, W.; Van Der Deijl, P. C.; van der Geer, R.; van der Graaf, H.; van Eldik, N.; van Gemmeren, P.; Van Nieuwkoop, J.; van Vulpen, I.; van Woerden, M. C.; Vanadia, M.; Vandelli, W.; Vanguri, R.; Vaniachine, A.; Vankov, P.; Vardanyan, G.; Vari, R.; Varnes, E. W.; Varol, T.; Varouchas, D.; Vartapetian, A.; Varvell, K. E.; Vasquez, J. G.; Vazeille, F.; Vazquez Schroeder, T.; Veatch, J.; Veloce, L. M.; Veloso, F.; Veneziano, S.; Ventura, A.; Venturi, M.; Venturi, N.; Venturini, A.; Vercesi, V.; Verducci, M.; Verkerke, W.; Vermeulen, J. C.; Vest, A.; Vetterli, M. C.; Viazlo, O.; Vichou, I.; Vickey, T.; Vickey Boeriu, O. E.; Viehhauser, G. H. A.; Viel, S.; Vigani, L.; Vigne, R.; Villa, M.; Villaplana Perez, M.; Vilucchi, E.; Vincter, M. G.; Vinogradov, V. B.; Vittori, C.; Vivarelli, I.; Vlachos, S.; Vlasak, M.; Vogel, M.; Vokac, P.; Volpi, G.; Volpi, M.; von der Schmitt, H.; von Toerne, E.; Vorobel, V.; Vorobev, K.; Vos, M.; Voss, R.; Vossebeld, J. H.; Vranjes, N.; Vranjes Milosavljevic, M.; Vrba, V.; Vreeswijk, M.; Vuillermet, R.; Vukotic, I.; Vykydal, Z.; Wagner, P.; Wagner, W.; Wahlberg, H.; Wahrmund, S.; Wakabayashi, J.; Walder, J.; Walker, R.; Walkowiak, W.; Wallangen, V.; Wang, C.; Wang, C.; Wang, F.; Wang, H.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.; Wang, J.; Wang, K.; Wang, R.; Wang, S. M.; Wang, T.; Wang, T.; Wang, X.; Wanotayaroj, C.; Warburton, A.; Ward, C. P.; Wardrope, D. R.; Washbrook, A.; Watkins, P. M.; Watson, A. T.; Watson, M. F.; Watts, G.; Watts, S.; Waugh, B. M.; Webb, S.; Weber, M. S.; Weber, S. W.; Webster, J. S.; Weidberg, A. R.; Weinert, B.; Weingarten, J.; Weiser, C.; Weits, H.; Wells, P. S.; Wenaus, T.; Wengler, T.; Wenig, S.; Wermes, N.; Werner, M.; Werner, P.; Wessels, M.; Wetter, J.; Whalen, K.; Whallon, N. L.; Wharton, A. M.; White, A.; White, M. J.; White, R.; Whiteson, D.; Wickens, F. J.; Wiedenmann, W.; Wielers, M.; Wienemann, P.; Wiglesworth, C.; Wiik-Fuchs, L. A. M.; Wildauer, A.; Wilk, F.; Wilkens, H. G.; Williams, H. H.; Williams, S.; Willis, C.; Willocq, S.; Wilson, J. A.; Wingerter-Seez, I.; Winklmeier, F.; Winston, O. J.; Winter, B. T.; Wittgen, M.; Wittkowski, J.; Wollstadt, S. J.; Wolter, M. W.; Wolters, H.; Wosiek, B. K.; Wotschack, J.; Woudstra, M. J.; Wozniak, K. W.; Wu, M.; Wu, M.; Wu, S. L.; Wu, X.; Wu, Y.; Wyatt, T. R.; Wynne, B. M.; Xella, S.; Xu, D.; Xu, L.; Yabsley, B.; Yacoob, S.; Yakabe, R.; Yamaguchi, D.; Yamaguchi, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Yamamoto, S.; Yamanaka, T.; Yamauchi, K.; Yamazaki, Y.; Yan, Z.; Yang, H.; Yang, H.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Z.; Yao, W.-M.; Yap, Y. C.; Yasu, Y.; Yatsenko, E.; Yau Wong, K. H.; Ye, J.; Ye, S.; Yeletskikh, I.; Yen, A. L.; Yildirim, E.; Yorita, K.; Yoshida, R.; Yoshihara, K.; Young, C.; Young, C. J. S.; Youssef, S.; Yu, D. R.; Yu, J.; Yu, J. M.; Yu, J.; Yuan, L.; Yuen, S. P. Y.; Yusuff, I.; Zabinski, B.; Zaidan, R.; Zaitsev, A. M.; Zakharchuk, N.; Zalieckas, J.; Zaman, A.; Zambito, S.; Zanello, L.; Zanzi, D.; Zeitnitz, C.; Zeman, M.; Zemla, A.; Zeng, J. C.; Zeng, Q.; Zengel, K.; Zenin, O.; Ženiš, T.; Zerwas, D.; Zhang, D.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, G.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, X.; Zhao, Y.; Zhao, Z.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zhong, J.; Zhou, B.; Zhou, C.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, N.; Zhu, C. G.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zhuang, X.; Zhukov, K.; Zibell, A.; Zieminska, D.; Zimine, N. I.; Zimmermann, C.; Zimmermann, S.; Zinonos, Z.; Zinser, M.; Ziolkowski, M.; Živković, L.; Zobernig, G.; Zoccoli, A.; zur Nedden, M.; Zurzolo, G.; Zwalinski, L.

2016-08-01

The angular distributions of Drell-Yan charged lepton pairs in the vicinity of the Z-boson mass peak probe the underlying QCD dynamics of Z-boson production. This paper presents a measurement of the complete set of angular coefficients A 0-7 describing these distributions in the Z-boson Collins-Soper frame. The data analysed correspond to 20.3 fb-1 of pp collisions at √{s}=8 TeV, collected by the ATLAS detector at the CERN LHC. The measurements are compared to the most precise fixed-order calculations currently available ({O}({α}s^2)) and with theoretical predictions embedded in Monte Carlo generators. The measurements are precise enough to probe QCD corrections beyond the formal accuracy of these calculations and to provide discrimination between different parton-shower models. A significant deviation from the ({O}({α}s^2)) predictions is observed for A 0 - A 2. Evidence is found for non-zero A 5,6,7, consistent with expectations. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Measurement of the angular coefficients in Z-boson events using electron and muon pairs from data taken at $$ \\sqrt{s}=8 $$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2016-08-29

The angular distributions of Drell-Yan charged lepton pairs in the vicinity of the Z-boson mass peak probe the underlying QCD dynamics of Z-boson production. This paper presents a measurement of the complete set of angular coefficients A 0–7 describing these distributions in the Z-boson Collins-Soper frame. The data analysed correspond to 20.3 fb –1 of pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV, collected by the ATLAS detector at the CERN LHC. The measurements are compared to the most precise fixed-order calculations currently available (O(α2s)) and with theoretical predictions embedded in Monte Carlo generators. The measurements are precise enough to probemore » QCD corrections beyond the formal accuracy of these calculations and to provide discrimination between different parton-shower models. A significant deviation from the (O(α 2 s)) predictions is observed for A 0 – A 2. In conclusion, evidence is found for non-zero A 5,6,7, consistent with expectations.« less

Measurement of the angular coefficients in Z-boson events using electron and muon pairs from data taken at $$ \\sqrt{s}=8 $$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.

The angular distributions of Drell-Yan charged lepton pairs in the vicinity of the Z-boson mass peak probe the underlying QCD dynamics of Z-boson production. This paper presents a measurement of the complete set of angular coefficients A 0–7 describing these distributions in the Z-boson Collins-Soper frame. The data analysed correspond to 20.3 fb –1 of pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV, collected by the ATLAS detector at the CERN LHC. The measurements are compared to the most precise fixed-order calculations currently available (O(α2s)) and with theoretical predictions embedded in Monte Carlo generators. The measurements are precise enough to probemore » QCD corrections beyond the formal accuracy of these calculations and to provide discrimination between different parton-shower models. A significant deviation from the (O(α 2 s)) predictions is observed for A 0 – A 2. In conclusion, evidence is found for non-zero A 5,6,7, consistent with expectations.« less

Estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss among rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing tofacitinib treatment: post hoc analyses of two randomized clinical trials

PubMed Central

Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A.; Wilkinson, Bethany E.; Wallenstein, Gene V.

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives. RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Methods. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. Results. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P < 0.001); >20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). MME reduction by month 3 was $70 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P < 0.001); ⩾23 and 13% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). Conclusion. Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. PMID:28460083

SPECabq v. 2.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chambers, Robert S.; Neidigk, Matthew A.

Sandia SPECabq is FORTRAN code that defines the user supplied subroutines needed to perform nonlinear viscoelastic analyses in the ABAQUS commercial finite element code based on the Simplified Potential Energy Clock (SPEC) Model. The SPEC model was published in the open literature in 2009. It must be compiled and linked with the ABAQUS libraries under the user supplied subroutine option of the ABAQUS executable script. The subroutine is used to analyze the thermomechanical behavior of isotropic polymers predicting things like how a polymer may undergo stress or volume relaxation under different temperature and loading environments. This subroutine enables the ABAQUSmore » finite element code to be used for analyzing the thermo-mechanical behavior of samples and parts that are made from glassy polymers.« less

Surgical Outcomes of Cavernous Sinus Syndrome in Pituitary Adenomas.

PubMed

Fu, Weilun; Duan, Lian; Geng, Sumin

2017-11-01

The type of pituitary adenoma with a manifestation that includes cavernous sinus syndrome is rare. Based on the clinical data of 70 patients, this study investigated the pathogenesis, imaging characteristics, and prognostic factors of pituitary adenoma with cavernous sinus syndrome. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the characteristics of patients with pituitary adenoma with cavernous sinus syndrome who received surgical treatment. The patients were classified into different prognosis groups according to the time required for them to recover from the cavernous sinus syndrome. Univariate analyses were conducted for the correlations between the prognosis and factors. Of the 3598 cases of pituitary adenomas, 70 (1.95%) presented cavernous sinus syndrome. Of the patients, 55.7% recovered within 2 weeks of surgery, 24.3% recovered from 2 weeks to 1 year after surgery, and 20% had not returned to normal after more than 1 year after surgery. Univariate analyses showed that shorter disease duration (P < 0.001), lower Knosp grade (P = 0.045), a transsphenoidal approach (P < 0.001), and associated pituitary apoplexy (P = 0.012) were predictive factors of early postoperative recovery. The prognosis of cavernous sinus syndrome differs depending on the mechanism of the syndrome. There was no significant difference in the prognosis between patients with total pituitary adenoma resection and subtotal resection. Timely surgery within 100 days of symptom occurrence, Knosp grade 0-2, and associated pituitary apoplexy are predictive factors of good prognosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive Techniques for Spacecraft Cabin Air Quality Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, J. L.; Cromes, Scott D. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

As assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) proceeds, predictive techniques are used to determine the best approach for handling a variety of cabin air quality challenges. These techniques use equipment offgassing data collected from each ISS module before flight to characterize the trace chemical contaminant load. Combined with crew metabolic loads, these data serve as input to a predictive model for assessing the capability of the onboard atmosphere revitalization systems to handle the overall trace contaminant load as station assembly progresses. The techniques for predicting in-flight air quality are summarized along with results from early ISS mission analyses. Results from groundbased analyses of in-flight air quality samples are compared to the predictions to demonstrate the technique's relative conservatism.

Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of Chromosomal Abnormalities in Azoospermic Males.

PubMed

Akinsal, Emre Can; Haznedar, Bulent; Baydilli, Numan; Kalinli, Adem; Ozturk, Ahmet; Ekmekçioğlu, Oğuz

2018-02-04

To evaluate whether an artifical neural network helps to diagnose any chromosomal abnormalities in azoospermic males. The data of azoospermic males attending to a tertiary academic referral center were evaluated retrospectively. Height, total testicular volume, follicle stimulating hormone, luteinising hormone, total testosterone and ejaculate volume of the patients were used for the analyses. In artificial neural network, the data of 310 azoospermics were used as the education and 115 as the test set. Logistic regression analyses and discriminant analyses were performed for statistical analyses. The tests were re-analysed with a neural network. Both logistic regression analyses and artificial neural network predicted the presence or absence of chromosomal abnormalities with more than 95% accuracy. The use of artificial neural network model has yielded satisfactory results in terms of distinguishing patients whether they have any chromosomal abnormality or not.

Personal predictors of educational attainment after compulsory school: influence of measures of vulnerability, health, and school performance.

PubMed

Winding, Trine N; Nohr, Ellen A; Labriola, Merete; Biering, Karin; Andersen, Johan H

2013-02-01

Getting a secondary education is essential in preventing future inequalities in health and socioeconomic status. We investigated to what degree personal predictors like low school performance, high vulnerability, and poor health status are associated with not completing a secondary education in a Danish youth cohort. This prospective study used data from a questionnaire in 2004 and register data in 2010. The study population consisted of 3053 adolescents born in 1989. Information on educational attainment from Statistics Denmark was divided into four categories: completed, still studying, dropped out, or never attained a secondary education. Data was analysed using multinomial logistic regression. Low grades when completing compulsory school predicted not having completed a secondary education by age 20/21 (odds ratios (OR) between 1.7 and 2.5). Low sense of coherence in childhood was associated with dropping out from a vocational education (OR 2.0). Low general health status was associated with dropping out (OR 2.2) or never attaining a secondary education (OR 2.7) and overweight was associated with never attaining a secondary education (OR 3.5). The study confirms the social gradient in educational attainment. Furthermore, the results indicate that factors related to the individual in terms of low school performance, low health status, and high vulnerability predict future success in the educational system. It is recommended that these high-risk groups are recognised and targeted when designing guidance and supervision programmes for youth at secondary education.

The Prediction of Disruptive Behaviour Disorders in an Urban Community Sample: The Contribution of Person-Centred Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burt, Keith B.; Hay, Dale F.; Pawlby, Susan; Harold, Gordon; Sharp, Deborah

2004-01-01

Background: Variable- and person-centred analyses were used to examine prediction of middle childhood behaviour problems from earlier child and family measures. Method: A community sample of 164 families, initially recruited at antenatal clinics at two South London practices, was assessed for children's behaviour problems and cognitive ability,…

The predictive value of markers of fibrinolysis and endothelial dysfunction in the post thrombotic syndrome. A systematic review.

PubMed

Rabinovich, Anat; Cohen, Jacqueline M; Kahn, Susan R

2014-06-01

The post thrombotic syndrome (PTS) develops in 20-40% of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) patients. Risk factors for PTS have not been well elucidated. Identification of risk factors would facilitate individualised risk assessment for PTS. We conducted a systematic review to determine whether biomarkers of fibrinolysis or endothelial dysfunction can predict the risk for PTS among DVT patients. Studies were identified by searching the electronic databases PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus and Web of science. We included studies published between 1990 and 2013, measured biomarker levels in adult DVT patients, and reported rates of PTS development. Fourteen studies were included: 11 investigated the association between D-dimer and PTS; three examined fibrinogen; two measured von Willebrand factor; one measured plasminogen activator inhibitor-1; one assessed ADAMTS-13 (A Disintegrin and Metalloprotease with Thrombospondin type 1 repeats) and one measured factor XIII activity. Studies varied with regards to inclusion criteria, definition of PTS, time point and method of biomarker measurement. We were unable to meta-analyse results due to marked clinical heterogeneity. Descriptively, a significant association with PTS was found for D-dimer in four studies and factor XIII in one study. Further prospective research is needed to elucidate whether these markers might be useful to predict PTS development.

The STD/MHD codes - Comparison of analyses with experiments at AEDC/HPDE, Reynolds Metal Co., and Hercules, Inc. [for MHD generator flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vetter, A. A.; Maxwell, C. D.; Swean, T. F., Jr.; Demetriades, S. T.; Oliver, D. A.; Bangerter, C. D.

1981-01-01

Data from sufficiently well-instrumented, short-duration experiments at AEDC/HPDE, Reynolds Metal Co., and Hercules, Inc., are compared to analyses with multidimensional and time-dependent simulations with the STD/MHD computer codes. These analyses reveal detailed features of major transient events, severe loss mechanisms, and anomalous MHD behavior. In particular, these analyses predicted higher-than-design voltage drops, Hall voltage overshoots, and asymmetric voltage drops before the experimental data were available. The predictions obtained with these analyses are in excellent agreement with the experimental data and the failure predictions are consistent with the experiments. The design of large, high-interaction or advanced MHD experiments will require application of sophisticated, detailed and comprehensive computational procedures in order to account for the critical mechanisms which led to the observed behavior in these experiments.

The structure of late-life depressive symptoms across a 20-year span: a taxometric investigation.

PubMed

Holland, Jason M; Schutte, Kathleen K; Brennan, Penny L; Moos, Rudolf H

2010-03-01

Past studies of the underlying structure of depressive symptoms have yielded mixed results, with some studies supporting a continuous conceptualization and others supporting a categorical one. However, no study has examined this research question with an exclusively older adult sample, despite the potential uniqueness of late-life depressive symptoms. In the present study, the underlying structure of late-life depressive symptoms was examined among a sample of 1,289 individuals across 3 waves of data collection spanning 20 years. The authors employed a taxometric methodology using indicators of depression derived from the Research Diagnostic Criteria (R. L. Spitzer, J. Endicott, & E. Robins, 1978). Maximum eigenvalue analyses and inchworm consistency tests generally supported a categorical conceptualization and identified a group that was primarily characterized by thoughts about death and suicide. However, compared to a categorical depression variable, depressive symptoms treated continuously were generally better predictors of relevant criterion variables. These findings suggest that thoughts of death and suicide may characterize a specific type of late-life depression, yet a continuous conceptualization still typically maximizes the predictive utility of late-life depressive symptoms.

Predicting the multi-domain progression of Parkinson's disease: a Bayesian multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect model.

PubMed

Wang, Ming; Li, Zheng; Lee, Eun Young; Lewis, Mechelle M; Zhang, Lijun; Sterling, Nicholas W; Wagner, Daymond; Eslinger, Paul; Du, Guangwei; Huang, Xuemei

2017-09-25

It is challenging for current statistical models to predict clinical progression of Parkinson's disease (PD) because of the involvement of multi-domains and longitudinal data. Past univariate longitudinal or multivariate analyses from cross-sectional trials have limited power to predict individual outcomes or a single moment. The multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect model (GLMM) under the Bayesian framework was proposed to study multi-domain longitudinal outcomes obtained at baseline, 18-, and 36-month. The outcomes included motor, non-motor, and postural instability scores from the MDS-UPDRS, and demographic and standardized clinical data were utilized as covariates. The dynamic prediction was performed for both internal and external subjects using the samples from the posterior distributions of the parameter estimates and random effects, and also the predictive accuracy was evaluated based on the root of mean square error (RMSE), absolute bias (AB) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. First, our prediction model identified clinical data that were differentially associated with motor, non-motor, and postural stability scores. Second, the predictive accuracy of our model for the training data was assessed, and improved prediction was gained in particularly for non-motor (RMSE and AB: 2.89 and 2.20) compared to univariate analysis (RMSE and AB: 3.04 and 2.35). Third, the individual-level predictions of longitudinal trajectories for the testing data were performed, with ~80% observed values falling within the 95% credible intervals. Multivariate general mixed models hold promise to predict clinical progression of individual outcomes in PD. The data was obtained from Dr. Xuemei Huang's NIH grant R01 NS060722 , part of NINDS PD Biomarker Program (PDBP). All data was entered within 24 h of collection to the Data Management Repository (DMR), which is publically available ( https://pdbp.ninds.nih.gov/data-management ).

Lack of Spartin Protein in Troyer Syndrome

PubMed Central

Bakowska, Joanna C.; Wang, Heng; Xin, Baozhong; Sumner, Charlotte J.; Blackstone, Craig

2017-01-01

Background Hereditary spastic paraplegias (SPG1-SPG33) are characterized by progressive spastic weakness of the lower limbs. A nucleotide deletion (1110delA) in the (SPG20; OMIM 275900) spartin gene is the origin of autosomal recessive Troyer syndrome. This mutation is predicted to cause premature termination of the spartin protein. However, it remains unknown whether this truncated spartin protein is absent or is present and partially functional in patients. Objective To determine whether the truncated spartin protein is present or absent in cells derived from patients with Troyer syndrome. Design Case report. Setting Academic research. Patients We describe a new family with Troyer syndrome due to the 1110delA mutation. Main Outcome Measures We cultured primary fibroblasts and generated lymphoblasts from affected individuals, carriers, and control subjects and subjected these cells to immunoblot analyses. Results Spartin protein is undetectable in several cell lines derived from patients with Troyer syndrome. Conclusions Our data suggest that Troyer syndrome results from complete loss of spartin protein rather than from the predicted partly functional fragment. This may reflect increased protein degradation or impaired translation. PMID:18413476

Pathway-based approaches for assessment of real-time exposure to an estrogenic wastewater treatment plant effluent on fathead minnow reproduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cavallin, Jenna E.; Jensen, Kathleen M.; Kahl, Michael D.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Lee, Kathy E.; Schroeder, Anthony L.; Mayasich, Joe; Eid, Evan P.; Nelson, Krysta R.; Milsk, Rebecca Y.; Blackwell, Brett R.; Berninger, Jason P.; LaLone, Carlie A.; Blanskma, Chad; Jicha, Terri M.; Elonen, Colleen M.; Johnson, Rodney C.; Ankley, Gerald T.

2016-01-01

Wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents are known contributors of chemical mixtures into the environment. Of particular concern are endocrine-disrupting compounds, such as estrogens, which can affect the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis function in exposed organisms. The present study examined reproductive effects in fathead minnows exposed for 21 d to a historically estrogenic WWTP effluent. Fathead minnow breeding pairs were held in control water or 1 of 3 effluent concentrations (5%, 20%, and 100%) in a novel onsite, flow-through system providing real-time exposure. The authors examined molecular and biochemical endpoints representing key events along adverse outcome pathways linking estrogen receptor activation and other molecular initiating events to reproductive impairment. In addition, the authors used chemical analysis of the effluent to construct a chemical-gene interaction network to aid in targeted gene expression analyses and identifying potentially impacted biological pathways. Cumulative fecundity was significantly reduced in fish exposed to 100% effluent but increased in those exposed to 20% effluent, the approximate dilution factor in the receiving waters. Plasma vitellogenin concentrations in males increased in a dose-dependent manner with effluent concentration; however, male fertility was not impacted. Although in vitro analyses, analytical chemistry, and biomarker responses confirmed the effluent was estrogenic, estrogen receptor agonists were unlikely the primary driver of impaired reproduction. The results provide insights into the significance of pathway-based effects with regard to predicting adverse reproductive outcomes.

A Preliminary Evaluation of the Ability of Keratotic Tissue to Act as a Prognostic Indicator of Hip Fracture Risk

PubMed Central

Beattie, J Renwick; Feskanich, Diane; Caraher, M Clare; Towler, Mark R

2018-01-01

Studies have shown that Raman spectroscopic analysis of fingernail clippings can help differentiate between post-menopausal women who have and who have not suffered a fracture. However, all studies to date have been retrospective in nature, comparing the proteins in nails sourced from women, post-fracture. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential of a prospective test for hip fracture based on spectroscopic analysis of nail tissue. Archived toenail samples from post-menopausal women aged 50 to 63 years in the Nurses’ Health Study were obtained and analysed by Raman spectroscopy. Nails were matched case-controls sourced from 161 women; 82 who underwent a hip fracture up to 20 years after nail collection and 81 age-matched controls. A number of clinical risk factors (CRFs) from the Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX) tool had been assessed at toenail collection. Using 80% of the spectra, models were developed for increasing time periods between nail collection and fracture. Scores were calculated from these models for the other 20% of the sample and the ability of the score to predict hip fracture was tested in model with and without the CRFs by comparing the odds ratios (ORs) per 1 SD increase in standardised predictive values. The Raman score successfully distinguished between hip fracture cases and controls. With only the score as a predictor, a statistically significant OR of 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5-3.1) was found for hip fracture for up to 20 years after collection. The OR increased to 3.8 (2.6-5.4) when the CRFs were added to the model. For fractures limited to 13 years after collection, the OR was 6.3 (3.0-13.1) for the score alone. The test based on Raman spectroscopy has potential for identifying individuals who may suffer hip fractures several years in advance. Higher powered studies are required to evaluate the predictive capability of this test. PMID:29371785

Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension.

PubMed

Nieuwland, Mante S; Politzer-Ahles, Stephen; Heyselaar, Evelien; Segaert, Katrien; Darley, Emily; Kazanina, Nina; Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, Sarah; Bartolozzi, Federica; Kogan, Vita; Ito, Aine; Mézière, Diane; Barr, Dale J; Rousselet, Guillaume A; Ferguson, Heather J; Busch-Moreno, Simon; Fu, Xiao; Tuomainen, Jyrki; Kulakova, Eugenia; Husband, E Matthew; Donaldson, David I; Kohút, Zdenko; Rueschemeyer, Shirley-Ann; Huettig, Falk

2018-04-03

Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment ('cloze'). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories ( N =334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words. © 2018, Nieuwland et al.

Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

PubMed Central

Politzer-Ahles, Stephen; Heyselaar, Evelien; Segaert, Katrien; Darley, Emily; Kazanina, Nina; Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, Sarah; Bartolozzi, Federica; Kogan, Vita; Ito, Aine; Mézière, Diane; Barr, Dale J; Rousselet, Guillaume A; Ferguson, Heather J; Busch-Moreno, Simon; Fu, Xiao; Tuomainen, Jyrki; Kulakova, Eugenia; Husband, E Matthew; Donaldson, David I; Kohút, Zdenko; Rueschemeyer, Shirley-Ann; Huettig, Falk

2018-01-01

Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment (‘cloze’). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words. PMID:29631695

“I Will Take a Shot for Every ‘Like’ I Get on This Status”: Posting Alcohol-Related Facebook Content Is Linked to Drinking Outcomes

PubMed Central

Westgate, Erin C; Neighbors, Clayton; Heppner, Hannes; Jahn, Susanna; Lindgren, Kristen P

2014-01-01

Objective: This study investigated whether self-reports of alcohol-related postings on Facebook by oneself or one’s Facebook friends were related to common motives for drinking and were uniquely predictive of self-reported alcohol outcomes (alcohol consumption, problems, and cravings). Method: Pacific Northwest undergraduates completed a survey of alcohol outcomes, drinking motives, and alcoholrelated Facebook postings. Participants completed the survey online as part of a larger study on alcohol use and cognitive associations. Participants were randomly selected through the university registrar’s office and consisted of 1,106 undergraduates (449 men, 654 women, 2 transgender, 1 declined to answer) between the ages of 18 and 25 years (M = 20.40, SD = 1.60) at a large university in the Pacific Northwest. Seven participants were excluded from analyses because of missing or suspect data. Results: Alcohol-related postings on Facebook were significantly correlated with social, enhancement, conformity, and coping motives for drinking (all ps < .001). After drinking motives were controlled for, self–alcohol-related postings independently and positively predicted the number of drinks per week, alcohol-related problems, risk of alcohol use disorders, and alcohol cravings (all ps < .001). In contrast, friends’ alcohol-related postings only predicted the risk of alcohol use disorders (p < .05) and marginally predicted alcohol-related problems (p = .07). Conclusions: Posting alcohol-related content on social media platforms such as Facebook is associated with common motivations for drinking and is, in itself, a strong predictive indicator of drinking outcomes independent of drinking motives. Moreover, self-related posting activity appears to be more predictive than Facebook friends’ activity. These findings suggest that social media platforms may be a useful target for future preventative and intervention efforts. PMID:24766750

Stress reactivity predicts symptom improvement in children with anxiety disorders.

PubMed

Dieleman, Gwendolyn C; Huizink, Anja C; Tulen, Joke H M; Utens, Elisabeth M W J; Tiemeier, Henning

2016-05-15

We examined the longitudinal associations of autonomic nervous system (ANS) and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis rest and reactivity measures with anxiety and depressive symptoms at one-year follow-up in children with anxiety disorders. In a clinical sample of 152 children with a primary DSM-IV anxiety disorder, aged 8 to 12 years, anxiety and depressive symptoms were assessed with the Multidimensional Anxiety Scale for Children and the Children's Depression Inventory at pre-treatment baseline and one year later, after treatment with cognitive behavioral therapy. At baseline, children participated in a 70min stress task. Salivary cortisol was measured directly prior to and 20min post stress task. Skin conductance level (SCL), heart rate and high frequency heart rate variability (HRV) were continuously measured during rest and the stress task. To investigate if rest or reactivity measures predicted anxiety and depressive symptoms at one year follow-up, linear regression analyses were conducted for rest and reactivity measures of SCL, heart rate, HRV and cortisol separately. Higher SCL reactivity predicted less decrease of anxiety symptoms at one-year follow-up. Cortisol reactivity showed a weak association with depressive symptoms at one-year follow-up: lower cortisol reactivity predicted less decrease in depressive symptoms. Only self-reported anxiety and depressive symptoms were used. However, all predictors were objective biological measures, hence there is no risk of shared method variance bias. These findings suggest that pre-treatment HPA and ANS responsiveness to stress are predictive biomarkers for a lack of symptom improvement in children with a clinical anxiety disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change.

PubMed

Anderson, Jill T; Inouye, David W; McKinney, Amy M; Colautti, Robert I; Mitchell-Olds, Tom

2012-09-22

Anthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life-history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change, but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38 year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the US Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973 to 2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favoured earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010-2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20 per cent of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change.

An accurate method for measuring triploidy of larval fish spawns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Jill A.; Draugelis-Dale, Rassa O.; Glennon, Robert; Kelly, Anita; Brown, Bonnie L.; Morrison, John

2017-01-01

A standard flow cytometric protocol was developed for estimating triploid induction in batches of larval fish. Polyploid induction treatments are not guaranteed to be 100% efficient, thus the ability to quantify the proportion of triploid larvae generated by a particular treatment helps managers to stock high-percentage spawns and researchers to select treatments for efficient triploid induction. At 3 d posthatch, individual Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella were mechanically dissociated into single-cell suspensions; nuclear DNA was stained with propidium iodide then analyzed by flow cytometry. Following ploidy identification of individuals, aliquots of diploid and triploid cell suspensions were mixed to generate 15 levels (0–100%) of known triploidy (n = 10). Using either 20 or 50 larvae per level, the observed triploid percentages were lower than the known, actual values. Using nonlinear regression analyses, quadratic equations solved for triploid proportions in mixed samples and corresponding estimation reference plots allowed for predicting triploidy. Thus, an accurate prediction of the proportion of triploids in a spawn can be made by following a standard larval processing and analysis protocol with either 20 or 50 larvae from a single spawn, coupled with applying the quadratic equations or reference plots to observed flow cytometry results. Due to the universality of triploid DNA content being 1.5 times the diploid level and because triploid fish consist of fewer cells than diploids, this method should be applicable to other produced triploid fish species, and it may be adapted for use with bivalves or other species where batch analysis is appropriate.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Somatosensory Evoked Potential Monitoring in Evaluating Neurological Complications During Endovascular Aneurysm Treatment.

PubMed

Ares, William J; Grandhi, Ramesh M; Panczykowski, David M; Weiner, Gregory M; Thirumala, Parthasarathy; Habeych, Miguel E; Crammond, Donald J; Horowitz, Michael B; Jankowitz, Brian T; Jadhav, Ashutosh; Jovin, Tudor G; Ducruet, Andrew F; Balzer, Jeffrey

2018-02-01

Somatosensory evoked potential (SSEP) monitoring is used extensively for early detection and prevention of neurological complications in patients undergoing many different neurosurgical procedures. However, the predictive ability of SSEP monitoring during endovascular treatment of cerebral aneurysms is not well detailed. To evaluate the performance of intraoperative SSEP in the prediction postprocedural neurological deficits (PPNDs) after coil embolization of intracranial aneurysms. This population-based cohort study included patients ≥18 years of age undergoing intracranial aneurysm embolization with concurrent SSEP monitoring between January 2006 and August 2012. The ability of SSEP to predict PPNDs was analyzed by multiple regression analyses and assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In a population of 888 patients, SSEP changes occurred in 8.6% (n = 77). Twenty-eight patients (3.1%) suffered PPNDs. A 50% to 99% loss in SSEP waveform was associated with a 20-fold increase in risk of PPND; a total loss of SSEP waveform, regardless of permanence, was associated with a greater than 200-fold risk of PPND. SSEPs displayed very good predictive ability for PPND, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.76-0.92). This study supports the predictive ability of SSEPs for the detection of PPNDs. The magnitude and persistence of SSEP changes is clearly associated with the development of PPNDs. The utility of SSEP monitoring in detecting ischemia may provide an opportunity for neurointerventionalists to respond to changes intraoperatively to mitigate the potential for PPNDs. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

Percentage of Memory B Lymphocytes and Regulatory T Lymphocytes in Peripheral Blood are Low but Not Predictive of Therapy outcomes in Newly Diagnosed Adult Patients with Primary Immune Thrombocytopenia.

PubMed

Yilmaz, Mustafa; Ayhan, Semiha

2017-12-01

Although changes in the number and function of regulatory T lymphocytes have been reported in primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), no study has investigated whether quantification of these cell types in peripheral blood could be used as early predictive marker of treatment outcome. And, it is not clear whether any change occurs in peripheral blood memory B lymphocyte levels in ITP. Hence, the aim of this study was to investigate the percentage of regulatory T lymphocytes and memory B lymphocytes in peripheral blood of ITP patients compared to controls, and also examine whether these levels have any significant predictive value for therapy outcome. A total of 20 newly diagnosed, untreated patients with ITP and 20 healthy controls were included. Flow cytometric analyses of lymphocyte subtypes in the peripheral blood were performed in specimens obtained from patients at the time of diagnosis and one month after the therapy initiation. First line corticosteroid (1 mg/kg/day methylprednisolone) therapy or splenectomy as second line treatment was performed, and patients were followed up for 3 years. Percentage of regulatory T lymphocytes (0.25 ± 0.17% vs. 1.14 ± 0.77%, P  < 0.0001, n = 20) and percentage of memory B lymphocytes (1.57 ± 1.24% vs. 4.38 ± 2.41%, P  < 0.001, n = 20) was significantly lower in ITP patients than healthy controls, at baseline. After one month therapy, the percentage of memory B lymphocytes of ITP patients significantly increased (from 1.66 ± 1.31% to 3.0 ± 1.7%, P  < 0.009, n = 17). The initial value of regulatory T (0.33 ± 0.30%, n = 10 vs. 0.16 ± 0.05%, n = 7, P  > 0.05) and memory B lymphocytes percentages (2.1 ± 1.8%, n = 10 vs. 1.1 ± 0.75%, n = 7, P  > 0.05) were not significantly different for those who had complete response to first line therapy than those required splenectomy. These results indicate that regulatory T lymphocytes and memory B lymphocytes percentages are not useful for predicting treatment outcome in patients with newly diagnosed adult patients with ITP.

Maternal Education Level Predicts Cognitive, Language, and Motor Outcome in Preterm Infants in the Second Year of Life.

PubMed

Patra, Kousiki; Greene, Michelle M; Patel, Aloka L; Meier, Paula

2016-07-01

Objective To evaluate the relative impact of maternal education level (MEL) on cognitive, language, and motor outcomes at 20 months' corrected age (CA) in preterm infants. Study Design A total of 177 preterm infants born between 2008 and 2010 were tested at 20 months' CA using the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III. Multiple regression analyses were done to determine the relative impact of MEL on cognitive, language, and motor scores. Results Infants born to mothers with high school MEL were 3.74 times more likely to have a subnormal motor index, while those born to mothers with some college and graduate school MEL had reduced odds (0.36 and 0.12, respectively) of having subnormal language index at 20 months. In linear regression, MEL was the strongest predictor of cognitive, language, and motor scores, and graduate school MEL was associated with increases in cognitive, motor, and language scores of 8.49, 8.23, and 15.74 points, respectively. Conclusions MEL is the most significant predictor of cognitive, language, and motor outcome at 20 months' CA in preterm infants. Further research is needed to evaluate if targeted interventions that focus on early childhood learning and parenting practices can ameliorate the impact of low MEL. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Munroa argentina, a Grass of the South American Transition Zone, Survived the Andean Uplift, Aridification and Glaciations of the Quaternary.

PubMed

Amarilla, Leonardo D; Anton, Ana M; Chiapella, Jorge O; Manifesto, María M; Angulo, Diego F; Sosa, Victoria

2015-01-01

The South American Transition Zone (SATZ) is a biogeographic area in which not only orogeny (Andes uplift) and climate events (aridification) since the mid-Miocene, but also Quaternary glaciation cycles had an important impact on the evolutionary history of the local flora. To study this effect, we selected Munroa argentina, an annual grass distributed in the biogeographic provinces of Puna, Prepuna and Monte. We collected 152 individuals from 20 localities throughout the species' range, ran genetic and demographic analyses, and applied ecological niche modeling. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses based on cpDNA and AFLP data identified three phylogroups that correspond to the previously identified subregions within the SATZ. Molecular dating suggests that M. argentina has inhabited the SATZ since approximately 3.4 (4.2-1.2) Ma and paleomodels predict suitable climate in these areas during the Interglacial period and the Last Glacial Maximum. We conclude that the current distribution of M. argentina resulted from the fragmentation of its once continuous range and that climate oscillations promoted ecological differences that favored isolation by creating habitat discontinuity.

Assessment of visual disability using visual evoked potentials.

PubMed

Jeon, Jihoon; Oh, Seiyul; Kyung, Sungeun

2012-08-06

The purpose of this study is to validate the use of visual evoked potential (VEP) to objectively quantify visual acuity in normal and amblyopic patients, and determine if it is possible to predict visual acuity in disability assessment to register visual pathway lesions. A retrospective chart review was conducted of patients diagnosed with normal vision, unilateral amblyopia, optic neuritis, and visual disability who visited the university medical center for registration from March 2007 to October 2009. The study included 20 normal subjects (20 right eyes: 10 females, 10 males, ages 9-42 years), 18 unilateral amblyopic patients (18 amblyopic eyes, ages 19-36 years), 19 optic neuritis patients (19 eyes: ages 9-71 years), and 10 patients with visual disability having visual pathway lesions. Amplitude and latencies were analyzed and correlations with visual acuity (logMAR) were derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic subjects. Correlation of VEP amplitude and visual acuity (logMAR) of 19 optic neuritis patients confirmed relationships between visual acuity and amplitude. We calculated the objective visual acuity (logMAR) of 16 eyes from 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic eyes. Linear regression analyses between amplitude of pattern visual evoked potentials and visual acuity (logMAR) of 38 eyes from normal (right eyes) and amblyopic (amblyopic eyes) subjects were significant [y = -0.072x + 1.22, x: VEP amplitude, y: visual acuity (logMAR)]. There were no significant differences between visual acuity prediction values, which substituted amplitude values of 19 eyes with optic neuritis into function. We calculated the objective visual acuity of 16 eyes of 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations of y = -0.072x + 1.22 (-0.072). This resulted in a prediction reference of visual acuity associated with malingering vs. real disability in a range >5.77 μV. The results could be useful, especially in cases of no obvious pale disc with trauma. Visual acuity quantification using absolute value of amplitude in pattern visual evoked potentials was useful in confirming subjective visual acuity for cutoff values >5.77 μV in disability evaluation to discriminate the malingering from real disability.

Assessment of visual disability using visual evoked potentials

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The purpose of this study is to validate the use of visual evoked potential (VEP) to objectively quantify visual acuity in normal and amblyopic patients, and determine if it is possible to predict visual acuity in disability assessment to register visual pathway lesions. Methods A retrospective chart review was conducted of patients diagnosed with normal vision, unilateral amblyopia, optic neuritis, and visual disability who visited the university medical center for registration from March 2007 to October 2009. The study included 20 normal subjects (20 right eyes: 10 females, 10 males, ages 9–42 years), 18 unilateral amblyopic patients (18 amblyopic eyes, ages 19–36 years), 19 optic neuritis patients (19 eyes: ages 9–71 years), and 10 patients with visual disability having visual pathway lesions. Amplitude and latencies were analyzed and correlations with visual acuity (logMAR) were derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic subjects. Correlation of VEP amplitude and visual acuity (logMAR) of 19 optic neuritis patients confirmed relationships between visual acuity and amplitude. We calculated the objective visual acuity (logMAR) of 16 eyes from 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations derived from 20 normal and 18 amblyopic eyes. Results Linear regression analyses between amplitude of pattern visual evoked potentials and visual acuity (logMAR) of 38 eyes from normal (right eyes) and amblyopic (amblyopic eyes) subjects were significant [y = −0.072x + 1.22, x: VEP amplitude, y: visual acuity (logMAR)]. There were no significant differences between visual acuity prediction values, which substituted amplitude values of 19 eyes with optic neuritis into function. We calculated the objective visual acuity of 16 eyes of 10 patients to diagnose the presence or absence of visual disability using relations of y = −0.072x + 1.22 (−0.072). This resulted in a prediction reference of visual acuity associated with malingering vs. real disability in a range >5.77 μV. The results could be useful, especially in cases of no obvious pale disc with trauma. Conclusions Visual acuity quantification using absolute value of amplitude in pattern visual evoked potentials was useful in confirming subjective visual acuity for cutoff values >5.77 μV in disability evaluation to discriminate the malingering from real disability. PMID:22866948

Association of genetic risk scores with body mass index in Swiss psychiatric cohorts.

PubMed

Saigi-Morgui, Núria; Vandenberghe, Frederik; Delacrétaz, Aurélie; Quteineh, Lina; Gholamrezaee, Mehdi; Aubry, Jean-Michel; von Gunten, Armin; Kutalik, Zoltán; Conus, Philippe; Eap, Chin B

2016-05-01

Weight gain is associated with psychiatric disorders and/or with psychotropic drug treatments. We analyzed in three psychiatric cohorts under psychotropic treatment the association of weighted genetic risk scores (w-GRSs) with BMI by integrating BMI-related polymorphisms from the candidate-gene approach and Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). w-GRS of 32 polymorphisms associated previously with BMI in general population GWAS and 20 polymorphisms associated with antipsychotics-induced weight gain were investigated in three independent psychiatric samples. w-GRS of 32 polymorphisms were significantly associated with BMI in the psychiatric sample 1 (n=425) and were replicated in another sample (n=177). Those at the percentile 95 (p95) of the score had 2.26 and 2.99 kg/m(2) higher predicted BMI compared with individuals at the percentile 5 (p5) in sample 1 and in sample 3 (P=0.009 and 0.04, respectively). When combining all samples together (n=750), a significant difference of 1.89 kg/m(2) predicted BMI was found between p95 and p5 individuals at 12 months of treatment. Stronger associations were found among men (difference: 2.91 kg/m(2) of predicted BMI between p95 and p5, P=0.0002), whereas no association was found among women. w-GRS of 20 polymorphisms was not associated with BMI. The w-GRS of 52 polymorphisms and the clinical variables (age, sex, treatment) explained 1.99 and 3.15%, respectively, of BMI variability. The present study replicated in psychiatric cohorts previously identified BMI risk variants obtained in GWAS analyses from population-based samples. Sex-specific analysis should be considered in further analysis.

Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhijun; Qin, Wenchao; Shi, Bin; Gao, Jingxin; Zhang, Shiwei

2017-06-01

The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

New theory for crack-tip twinning in fcc metals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andric, Predrag; Curtin, W. A.

2018-04-01

Dislocation emission from a crack tip is a necessary mechanism for crack tip blunting and toughening. In fcc metals under Mode I loading, a first partial dislocation is emitted, followed either by a trailing partial dislocation ("ductile" behaviour) or a twinning partial dislocation ("quasi-brittle"). The twinning tendency is usually estimated using the Tadmor and Hai extension of the Rice theory. Extensive molecular statics simulations reveal that the predictions of the critical stress intensity factor for crack tip twinning are always systematically lower (20-35%) than observed. Analyses of the energy change during nucleation reveal that twin partial emission is not accompanied by creation of a surface step while emission of the trailing partial creates a step. The absence of the step during twinning motivates a modified model for twinning nucleation that accounts for the fact that nucleation does not occur directly at the crack tip. Predictions of the modified theory are in excellent agreement with all simulations that show twinning. Emission of the trailing partial dislocation, including the step creation, is predicted using a model recently introduced to accurately predict the first partial emission and shows why twinning is preferred. A second mode of twinning is found wherein the crack first advances by cleavage and then emits the twinning partial at the new crack tip; this mode dominates for emission beyond the first twinning partial. These new theories resolve all the discrepancies between the Tadmor twinning analysis and simulations, and have various implications for fracture behaviour and transitions.

Bronchoscopic Lung Volume Reduction with Endobronchial Valves in Low-FEV1 Patients.

PubMed

Darwiche, Kaid; Karpf-Wissel, Rüdiger; Eisenmann, Stephan; Aigner, Clemens; Welter, Stefan; Zarogoulidis, Paul; Hohenforst-Schmidt, Wolfgang; Freitag, Lutz; Oezkan, Filiz

2016-01-01

Bronchoscopic lung volume reduction (BLVR) with valves has been shown to improve lung function, exercise capacity, and quality of life in patients with emphysema, but only few patients with forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) ≤20% predicted have been included in former studies. Although the procedure can be performed safely, pneumothorax is a frequent complication, which can be critical for these very severely diseased patients. The aim of the study was to assess the safety of BLVR in patients with a very advanced stage of emphysema, as indicated by FEV1 ≤20% predicted. Patients in whom BLVR was performed between January 2013 and August 2015 were included in this analysis if their baseline predicted FEV1 was ≤20%. BLVR, performed only if collateral ventilation was absent, achieved complete occlusion of the target lobe. All patients were closely monitored and were not discharged before the fourth day after BLVR. Twenty patients with FEV1 ≤20% predicted were included in the analysis. Lung volume reduction was achieved in 65% of the cases. Pneumothorax occurred in 4 cases (20%). No patient died. Lung function and exercise tolerance improved after 1 and 3 months, respectively. BLVR with valves can be safely performed in patients with FEV1 ≤20% predicted when close postprocedural monitoring is provided. Improvement in lung function and exercise capacity can be achieved. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Characterizing scale- and location-dependent correlation of water retention parameters with soil physical properties using wavelet techniques.

PubMed

Shu, Qiaosheng; Liu, Zuoxin; Si, Bingcheng

2008-01-01

Understanding the correlation between soil hydraulic parameters and soil physical properties is a prerequisite for the prediction of soil hydraulic properties from soil physical properties. The objective of this study was to examine the scale- and location-dependent correlation between two water retention parameters (alpha and n) in the van Genuchten (1980) function and soil physical properties (sand content, bulk density [Bd], and organic carbon content) using wavelet techniques. Soil samples were collected from a transect from Fuxin, China. Soil water retention curves were measured, and the van Genuchten parameters were obtained through curve fitting. Wavelet coherency analysis was used to elucidate the location- and scale-dependent relationships between these parameters and soil physical properties. Results showed that the wavelet coherence between alpha and sand content was significantly different from red noise at small scales (8-20 m) and from a distance of 30 to 470 m. Their wavelet phase spectrum was predominantly out of phase, indicating negative correlation between these two variables. The strong negative correlation between alpha and Bd existed mainly at medium scales (30-80 m). However, parameter n had a strong positive correlation only with Bd at scales between 20 and 80 m. Neither of the two retention parameters had significant wavelet coherency with organic carbon content. These results suggested that location-dependent scale analyses are necessary to improve the performance for soil water retention characteristic predictions.

Comparison of Instantaneous Frequency Scaling from Rain Attenuation and Optical Disdrometer Measurements at K/Q bands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nessel, James; Zemba, Michael; Luini, Lorenzo; Riva, Carlo

2015-01-01

Rain attenuation is strongly dependent on the rain rate, but also on the rain drop size distribution (DSD). Typically, models utilize an average drop size distribution, such as those developed by Laws and Parsons, or Marshall and Palmer. However, individual rain events may possess drop size distributions which could be significantly different from the average and will impact, for example, fade mitigation techniques which utilize channel performance estimates from a signal at a different frequency. Therefore, a good understanding of the characteristics and variability of the raindrop size distribution is extremely important in predicting rain attenuation and instantaneous frequency scaling parameters on an event-toevent basis. Since June 2014, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) have measured the attenuation due to rain in Milan, Italy, on the 20/40 GHz beacon signal broadcast from the Alphasat TDP#5 Aldo Paraboni Q/V-band Payload. Concomitant with these measurements are the measurements of drop size distribution and rain rate utilizing a Thies Clima laser precipitation monitor (disdrometer). In this paper, we discuss the comparison of the predicted rain attenuation at 20 and 40 GHz derived from the drop size distribution data with the measured rain attenuation. The results are compared on statistical and real-time bases. We will investigate the performance of the rain attenuation model, instantaneous frequency scaling, and the distribution of the scaling factor. Further, seasonal rain characteristics will be analysed.

Advances in Fatigue and Fracture Mechanics Analyses for Aircraft Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, J. C., Jr.

1999-01-01

This paper reviews some of the advances that have been made in stress analyses of cracked aircraft components, in the understanding of the fatigue and fatigue-crack growth process, and in the prediction of residual strength of complex aircraft structures with widespread fatigue damage. Finite-element analyses of cracked structures are now used to determine accurate stress-intensity factors for cracks at structural details. Observations of small-crack behavior at open and rivet-loaded holes and the development of small-crack theory has lead to the prediction of stress-life behavior for components with stress concentrations under aircraft spectrum loading. Fatigue-crack growth under simulated aircraft spectra can now be predicted with the crack-closure concept. Residual strength of cracked panels with severe out-of-plane deformations (buckling) in the presence of stiffeners and multiple-site damage can be predicted with advanced elastic-plastic finite-element analyses and the critical crack-tip-opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion. These advances are helping to assure continued safety of aircraft structures.

Advances in Fatigue and Fracture Mechanics Analyses for Metallic Aircraft Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, J. C., Jr.

2000-01-01

This paper reviews some of the advances that have been made in stress analyses of cracked aircraft components, in the understanding of the fatigue and fatigue-crack growth process, and in the prediction of residual strength of complex aircraft structures with widespread fatigue damage. Finite-element analyses of cracked metallic structures are now used to determine accurate stress-intensity factors for cracks at structural details. Observations of small-crack behavior at open and rivet-loaded holes and the development of small-crack theory has lead to the prediction of stress-life behavior for components with stress concentrations under aircraft spectrum loading. Fatigue-crack growth under simulated aircraft spectra can now be predicted with the crack-closure concept. Residual strength of cracked panels with severe out-of-plane deformations (buckling) in the presence of stiffeners and multiple-site damage can be predicted with advanced elastic-plastic finite-element analyses and the critical crack-tip-opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion. These advances are helping to assure continued safety of aircraft structures.

GIMDA: Graphlet interaction-based MiRNA-disease association prediction.

PubMed

Chen, Xing; Guan, Na-Na; Li, Jian-Qiang; Yan, Gui-Ying

2018-03-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have been confirmed to be closely related to various human complex diseases by many experimental studies. It is necessary and valuable to develop powerful and effective computational models to predict potential associations between miRNAs and diseases. In this work, we presented a prediction model of Graphlet Interaction for MiRNA-Disease Association prediction (GIMDA) by integrating the disease semantic similarity, miRNA functional similarity, Gaussian interaction profile kernel similarity and the experimentally confirmed miRNA-disease associations. The related score of a miRNA to a disease was calculated by measuring the graphlet interactions between two miRNAs or two diseases. The novelty of GIMDA lies in that we used graphlet interaction to analyse the complex relationships between two nodes in a graph. The AUCs of GIMDA in global and local leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) turned out to be 0.9006 and 0.8455, respectively. The average result of five-fold cross-validation reached to 0.8927 ± 0.0012. In case study for colon neoplasms, kidney neoplasms and prostate neoplasms based on the database of HMDD V2.0, 45, 45, 41 of the top 50 potential miRNAs predicted by GIMDA were validated by dbDEMC and miR2Disease. Additionally, in the case study of new diseases without any known associated miRNAs and the case study of predicting potential miRNA-disease associations using HMDD V1.0, there were also high percentages of top 50 miRNAs verified by the experimental literatures. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Cellular and Molecular Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Foundation for Cellular and Molecular Medicine.

External validation and clinical utility of a prediction model for 6-month mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis for end-stage kidney disease.

PubMed

Forzley, Brian; Er, Lee; Chiu, Helen Hl; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Martinusen, Dan; Carson, Rachel C; Hargrove, Gaylene; Levin, Adeera; Karim, Mohamud

2018-02-01

End-stage kidney disease is associated with poor prognosis. Health care professionals must be prepared to address end-of-life issues and identify those at high risk for dying. A 6-month mortality prediction model for patients on dialysis derived in the United States is used but has not been externally validated. We aimed to assess the external validity and clinical utility in an independent cohort in Canada. We examined the performance of the published 6-month mortality prediction model, using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analyses. Data were derived from a cohort of 374 prevalent dialysis patients in two regions of British Columbia, Canada, which included serum albumin, age, peripheral vascular disease, dementia, and answers to the "the surprise question" ("Would I be surprised if this patient died within the next year?"). The observed mortality in the validation cohort was 11.5% at 6 months. The prediction model had reasonable discrimination (c-stat = 0.70) but poor calibration (calibration-in-the-large = -0.53 (95% confidence interval: -0.88, -0.18); calibration slope = 0.57 (95% confidence interval: 0.31, 0.83)) in our data. Decision curve analysis showed the model only has added value in guiding clinical decision in a small range of threshold probabilities: 8%-20%. Despite reasonable discrimination, the prediction model has poor calibration in this external study cohort; thus, it may have limited clinical utility in settings outside of where it was derived. Decision curve analysis clarifies limitations in clinical utility not apparent by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. This study highlights the importance of external validation of prediction models prior to routine use in clinical practice.

Preschool Personality Antecedents of Narcissism in Adolescence and Emergent Adulthood: A 20-Year Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Carlson, Kevin S.; Gjerde, Per F.

2009-01-01

This prospective study examined relations between preschool personality attributes and narcissism during adolescence and emerging adulthood. We created five a priori preschool scales anticipated to foretell future narcissism. Independent assessors evaluated the participants' personality at ages 14, 18, and 23. Based upon these evaluations, we generated observer-based narcissism scales for each of these three ages. All preschool scales predicted subsequent narcissism, except Interpersonal Antagonism at age 23. According to mean scale and item scores analyses, narcissism increased significantly from age 14 to 18, followed by a slight but non-significant decline from age 18 to 23. The discussion focused on a developmental view of narcissism, the need for research on automatic processing and psychological defenses, and links between narcissism and attachment. PMID:20161614

Predicting Radiotherapy Necessity in Tongue Cancer Using Lymph Node Yield.

PubMed

Feng, Zhien; Xu, Qiao Shi; Qin, Li Zheng; Li, Hua; Han, Zhengxue

2017-05-01

In patients with head and neck cancer and a single metastatic lymph node (pN1), the value of lymph node yield (LNY) remains controversial in determining the prognosis and identifying patients who require radiotherapy. This study evaluated the role of LNY in predicting the adequacy of neck dissection, need for adjuvant radiotherapy, and survival in patients with pN1 oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma. The authors implemented a retrospective cohort study. The predictor variable was LNY. The outcome variables were 5-year disease-specific survival and the need for adjuvant radiotherapy. Other study variables were age, gender, tumor stage, pathologic grade, growth pattern, tobacco and alcohol habits, and time frame. Descriptive and bivariate statistics were computed, and a P value less than .05 was considered statistically significant. The sample was chosen from among 2,792 patients who were histopathologically diagnosed as having oral squamous cell carcinoma and underwent surgical treatment from June 1996 through December 2012. One hundred forty-one patients treated at the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial-Head and Neck Oncology of the Beijing Stomatological Hospital (Beijing, China) were screened for the study. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis identified that a cutoff (LNY, 20; area under the curve, 0.708; 95% confidence interval, 0.625-0.781; sensitivity and specificity, 64.94 and 70.31%, respectively; P = .0001) could best discriminate patients into 2 groups according to need for adjuvant radiotherapy. Interestingly, subgroup analyses showed that patients who underwent adjuvant radiotherapy had notably better 5-year disease-specific survival than those who did not undergo radiotherapy if the LNY was smaller than 20 (58.0 vs 21.0%; P = .021). However, there was no significant association for 5-year disease-specific survival between the low and high LNY groups (49.2 vs 58.7%; P = .363). An LNY smaller than 20 at levels I to III predicted a benefit from adjuvant radiotherapy in patients with tongue cancer who had pN1 neck status without other adverse histopathologic features. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Model to Predict the Risk of Keratinocyte Carcinomas.

PubMed

Whiteman, David C; Thompson, Bridie S; Thrift, Aaron P; Hughes, Maria-Celia; Muranushi, Chiho; Neale, Rachel E; Green, Adele C; Olsen, Catherine M

2016-06-01

Basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin are the commonest cancers in humans, yet no validated tools exist to estimate future risks of developing keratinocyte carcinomas. To develop a prediction tool, we used baseline data from a prospective cohort study (n = 38,726) in Queensland, Australia, and used data linkage to capture all surgically excised keratinocyte carcinomas arising within the cohort. Predictive factors were identified through stepwise logistic regression models. In secondary analyses, we derived separate models within strata of prior skin cancer history, age, and sex. The primary model included terms for 10 items. Factors with the strongest effects were >20 prior skin cancers excised (odds ratio 8.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 6.73-10.91), >50 skin lesions destroyed (odds ratio 3.37, 95% CI 2.85-3.99), age ≥ 70 years (odds ratio 3.47, 95% CI 2.53-4.77), and fair skin color (odds ratio 1.75, 95% CI 1.42-2.15). Discrimination in the validation dataset was high (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.80, 95% CI 0.79-0.81) and the model appeared well calibrated. Among those reporting no prior history of skin cancer, a similar model with 10 factors predicted keratinocyte carcinoma events with reasonable discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.72, 95% CI 0.70-0.75). Algorithms using self-reported patient data have high accuracy for predicting risks of keratinocyte carcinomas. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) for Predicting Institutionalization of Patients With Dementia in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Huang, Shih-Wei; Chang, Kwang-Hwa; Escorpizo, Reuben; Hu, Chaur-Jong; Chi, Wen-Chou; Yen, Chia-Feng; Liao, Hua-Fang; Chiu, Wen-Ta; Liou, Tsan-Hon

2015-01-01

Abstract World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) is an assessment tool and it has been applied for disability status assessment of Taiwanese dementia patients since July 2012. The aim of this study was to investigate the predicting accuracy of WHODAS 2.0 for institutionalization of dementia patients. Of these patients, 13,774 resided in a community and 4406 in a long-term care facility. Demographic data and WHODAS 2.0 standardized scores were analyzed using the Chi-square test and independent t test to compare patients with dementia in an institution with those in a community. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to investigate accuracy in predicting institutionalization, and the optimal cutoff point was determined using the Youden index. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze variables to determine risk factors for the institutionalization of patients with dementia. WHODAS 2.0 scores in all domains were higher in patients with dementia in a long-term care facility than in those in a community (P < 0.01). The ROC curve showed moderate accuracy for all domains of WHODAS 2.0 (area under curve 0.6∼0.8). Binary logistic regression revealed that the male gender, severity of disease, and standardized WHODAS 2.0 scores surpassing the cutoff values were risk factors for the institutionalization of patients with dementia. Although the accuracy of WHODAS 2.0 in predicting institutionalization is not considerably high for patients with dementia, our study found that the WHODAS 2.0 scores, the male gender, education status, urbanization level, and severity of disease were risk factors for institutionalization in long-term care facilities. PMID:26632747

Talent Identification in Sport: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Johnston, Kathryn; Wattie, Nick; Schorer, Jörg; Baker, Joseph

2018-01-01

Talent identification (TID) programs are an integral part of the selection process for elite-level athletes. While many sport organizations utilize TID programs, there does not seem to be a clear set of variables that consistently predict future success. This review aims to synthesize longitudinal and retrospective studies examining differences between performance variables in highly skilled and less-skilled athletes in elite-level sport. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were used to identify relevant studies (N = 20). There was a clear overrepresentation of studies that (1) examined physical profiles of athletes (60%); (2) focused on male samples (65%); (3) examined athletes between the ages of 10 and 20 years (60%); and (4) were published between the years 2010 and 2015 (65%). On closer examination, there was a high degree of variability in the factors that were found to discriminate between skilled and less-skilled individuals. Findings from this review highlight how little is known about TID in elite sport and emphasize the need for greater diversity in TID research.

GABI-Kat SimpleSearch: new features of the Arabidopsis thaliana T-DNA mutant database.

PubMed

Kleinboelting, Nils; Huep, Gunnar; Kloetgen, Andreas; Viehoever, Prisca; Weisshaar, Bernd

2012-01-01

T-DNA insertion mutants are very valuable for reverse genetics in Arabidopsis thaliana. Several projects have generated large sequence-indexed collections of T-DNA insertion lines, of which GABI-Kat is the second largest resource worldwide. User access to the collection and its Flanking Sequence Tags (FSTs) is provided by the front end SimpleSearch (http://www.GABI-Kat.de). Several significant improvements have been implemented recently. The database now relies on the TAIRv10 genome sequence and annotation dataset. All FSTs have been newly mapped using an optimized procedure that leads to improved accuracy of insertion site predictions. A fraction of the collection with weak FST yield was re-analysed by generating new FSTs. Along with newly found predictions for older sequences about 20,000 new FSTs were included in the database. Information about groups of FSTs pointing to the same insertion site that is found in several lines but is real only in a single line are included, and many problematic FST-to-line links have been corrected using new wet-lab data. SimpleSearch currently contains data from ~71,000 lines with predicted insertions covering 62.5% of the 27,206 nuclear protein coding genes, and offers insertion allele-specific data from 9545 confirmed lines that are available from the Nottingham Arabidopsis Stock Centre.

Analysis of Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) modeling approach for predicting distributions of fleas implicated as vectors of plague, Yersinia pestis, in California.

PubMed

Adjemian, Jennifer C Z; Girvetz, Evan H; Beckett, Laurel; Foley, Janet E

2006-01-01

More than 20 species of fleas in California are implicated as potential vectors of Yersinia pestis. Extremely limited spatial data exist for plague vectors-a key component to understanding where the greatest risks for human, domestic animal, and wildlife health exist. This study increases the spatial data available for 13 potential plague vectors by using the ecological niche modeling system Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) to predict their respective distributions. Because the available sample sizes in our data set varied greatly from one species to another, we also performed an analysis of the robustness of GARP by using the data available for flea Oropsylla montana (Baker) to quantify the effects that sample size and the chosen explanatory variables have on the final species distribution map. GARP effectively modeled the distributions of 13 vector species. Furthermore, our analyses show that all of these modeled ranges are robust, with a sample size of six fleas or greater not significantly impacting the percentage of the in-state area where the flea was predicted to be found, or the testing accuracy of the model. The results of this study will help guide the sampling efforts of future studies focusing on plague vectors.

TRAJECTORY AND CORRELATES OF GROWTH OF EXTREMELY LOW BIRTH WEIGHT ADOLESCENTS

PubMed Central

Hack, Maureen; Schluchter, Mark; Margevicius, Seunghee; Andreias, Laura; Taylor, Gerry; Cuttler, Leona

2014-01-01

Background Catch-up growth may predispose to obesity and metabolic sequelae. We sought to examine the trajectory and correlates of growth and catch-up among extremely low birth weight (ELBW, <1 kg) adolescents. Methods Cohort study of 148 neurologically normal ELBW children and 115 normal birth weight (NBW) controls born 1992 through 1995. Longitudinal measures of gender-specific growth of ELBW children from birth, and growth and measures of obesity of ELBW and NBW children at 14 years. Results Following neonatal growth failure, ELBW children had accelerated growth, but at 8 years they still had lower weight and height z scores than NBW children. By 14 years ELBW boys had caught up in growth to their NBW controls but ELBW girls remained significantly smaller. ELBW children however did not differ from their controls in measures of obesity. In hierarchical multiple regression analyses only maternal BMI and weight gain during infancy and childhood predicted the ELBW children’s 14-year weight z scores, BMI z scores and abdominal circumference. Perinatal risk factors including intrauterine growth only predicted growth up to 20 months. Conclusion Maternal BMI and rate of growth, rather than perinatal factors, predict 14-year obesity among neurologically normal ELBW adolescents. PMID:24216539

Theoretical investigation of the effects of the molar ratio and solvent on the formation of the pyrazole-nitroamine cocrystal explosive 3,4-dinitropyrazole (DNP)/2,4,6,8,10,12-hexanitrohexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20).

PubMed

Zhu, Shuang-Fei; Zhang, Shu-Hai; Gou, Rui-Jun; Han, Gang; Wu, Chun-Lei; Ren, Fu-de

2017-11-24

The effects of the molar ratio, temperature, and solvent on the formation of the cocrystal explosive DNP/CL-20 were investigated using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. The cocrystal structure was predicted through Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and using first-principles methods. The results showed that the DNP/CL-20 cocrystal might be more stable in the molar ratio 1:1 near to 318 K, and the most probable cocrystal crystallizes in the triclinic crystal system with the space group P[Formula: see text]. Cocrystallization was more likely to occur in methanol and ethanol at 308 K as a result of solvent effects. The optimized structure and the reduced density gradient (RDG) of the DNP/CL-20 complex confirmed that the main driving forces for cocrystallization were a series of hydrogen bonds and van der Waals forces. Analyses of the trigger bonds, the charges on the nitro groups, the electrostatic surface potential (ESP), and the free space per molecule in the cocrystal lattice were carried out to further explore their influences on the sensitivity of CL-20. The results indicated that the DNP/CL-20 complex tended to be more stable and insensitive than pure CL-20. Moreover, an investigation of the detonation performance of the DNP/CL-20 cocrystal indicated that it possesses high power. Graphical abstract DNP/CL-20 cocrystal models with different molar ratios were investigated at different temperatures using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation methods. Binding energies and mechanical properties were probed to determine the stability and performance of each cocrystal model. Solvated DNP/CL-20 models were established by adding solvent molecules to the cocrystal surface. The binding energies of the models in various solvents were calculated in order to identify the most suitable solvent and temperature for preparing the cocrystal explosive DNP/CL-20.

The role of affect and cognition in health decision making.

PubMed

Keer, Mario; van den Putte, Bas; Neijens, Peter

2010-03-01

Both affective and cognitive evaluations of behaviours have been allocated various positions in theoretical models of decision making. Most often, they have been studied as direct determinants of either intention or overall evaluation, but these two possible positions have never been compared. The aim of this study was to determine whether affective and cognitive evaluations influence intention directly, or whether their influence is mediated by overall evaluation. A sample of 300 university students filled in questionnaires on their affective, cognitive, and overall evaluations in respect of 20 health behaviours. The data were interpreted using mediation analyses with the application of path modelling. Both affective and cognitive evaluations were found to have significantly predicted intention. The influence of affective evaluation was largely direct for each of the behaviours studied, whereas that of cognitive evaluation was partially direct and partially mediated by overall evaluation. These results indicate that decisions regarding the content of persuasive communication (affective vs. cognitive) are highly dependent on the theoretical model chosen. It is suggested that affective evaluation should be included as a direct determinant of intention in theories of decision making when predicting health behaviours.

Intravaginal metronidazole gel versus metronidazole plus nystatin ovules for bacterial vaginosis: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Sanchez, Sixto; Garcia, Patricia J; Thomas, Katherine K; Catlin, Mary; Holmes, King K

2004-12-01

We compared metronidazole 0.75% gel (containing 37.5 mg metronidazole per dose) with ovules containing metronidazole 500 mg and nystatin 100,000 U, for intravaginal treatment of bacterial vaginosis (BV). In a single-blinded trial, symptomatic women with BV by both Amsel and Nugent criteria were randomly assigned to gel or ovules, once nightly for 5 nights, and asked to return 3 times after treatment. Analyses were intent-to-treat. Of 151 women with BV by both criteria at enrollment, 138 (91%) returned at least once. Product limit estimates for persistence or recurrence of BV at 14, 42, and 104 days were 20% (95% CI 10%-29%), 38% (95% CI 25%-48%), and 52% (95% CI 37%-63%) after gel treatment, and 4% (95% CI 0%-9%), 17% (95% CI 7%-26%), and 33% (95% CI 21%-46%) after ovule treatment ( P = .01). Among women without BV at first follow-up, subsequent intercourse without condoms independently predicted subsequent recurrence ( P

Predictive use of routine 24-hour electrocardiography in suspected Adams-Stokes syndrome. Comparison with cardiac rhythm during symptoms.

PubMed Central

Abdon, N J; Johansson, B W; Lessem, J

1982-01-01

Using strictly defined criteria of significant arrhythmias, long term electrocardiographic recording has been evaluated for confirmation of arrhythmias as the cause of cerebral symptoms in 81 patients with suspected Adams-Stokes syndrome. Extension of long term electrocardiographic recording for more than 24 hours gives marginal additional information at a high cost. Among 43 patients monitored until symptoms appeared, non cardiogenic causes were confirmed in 20 of 22 patients because the recording showed normal rhythm during symptoms. Fifteen of 21 patients with a significant arrhythmia during an asymptomatic 24 hour recording later had the same arrhythmia during symptoms. Of 38 patients who failed to develop symptoms, 21 had a significant arrhythmia detectable within 24 hours and 23 when 48 hours of recording were analysed. PMID:7082502

Development and internal validation of a side-specific, multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging-based nomogram for the prediction of extracapsular extension of prostate cancer.

PubMed

Martini, Alberto; Gupta, Akriti; Lewis, Sara C; Cumarasamy, Shivaram; Haines, Kenneth G; Briganti, Alberto; Montorsi, Francesco; Tewari, Ashutosh K

2018-04-19

To develop a nomogram for predicting side-specific extracapsular extension (ECE) for planning nerve-sparing radical prostatectomy. We retrospectively analysed data from 561 patients who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy between February 2014 and October 2015. To develop a side-specific predictive model, we considered the prostatic lobes separately. Four variables were included: prostate-specific antigen; highest ipsilateral biopsy Gleason grade; highest ipsilateral percentage core involvement; and ECE on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI). A multivariable logistic regression analysis was fitted to predict side-specific ECE. A nomogram was built based on the coefficients of the logit function. Internal validation was performed using 'leave-one-out' cross-validation. Calibration was graphically investigated. The decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the net clinical benefit. The study population consisted of 829 side-specific cases, after excluding negative biopsy observations (n = 293). ECE was reported on mpMRI and final pathology in 115 (14%) and 142 (17.1%) cases, respectively. Among these, mpMRI was able to predict ECE correctly in 57 (40.1%) cases. All variables in the model except highest percentage core involvement were predictors of ECE (all P ≤ 0.006). All variables were considered for inclusion in the nomogram. After internal validation, the area under the curve was 82.11%. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and improved clinical risk prediction, especially when compared with relying on mpMRI prediction of ECE alone. When retrospectively applying the nomogram-derived probability, using a 20% threshold for performing nerve-sparing, nine out of 14 positive surgical margins (PSMs) at the site of ECE resulted above the threshold. We developed an easy-to-use model for the prediction of side-specific ECE, and hope it serves as a tool for planning nerve-sparing radical prostatectomy and in the reduction of PSM in future series. © 2018 The Authors BJU International © 2018 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cow-specific diet digestibility predictions based on near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy scans of faecal samples.

PubMed

Mehtiö, T; Rinne, M; Nyholm, L; Mäntysaari, P; Sairanen, A; Mäntysaari, E A; Pitkänen, T; Lidauer, M H

2016-04-01

This study was designed to obtain information on prediction of diet digestibility from near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) scans of faecal spot samples from dairy cows at different stages of lactation and to develop a faecal sampling protocol. NIRS was used to predict diet organic matter digestibility (OMD) and indigestible neutral detergent fibre content (iNDF) from faecal samples, and dry matter digestibility (DMD) using iNDF in feed and faecal samples as an internal marker. Acid-insoluble ash (AIA) as an internal digestibility marker was used as a reference method to evaluate the reliability of NIRS predictions. Feed and composite faecal samples were collected from 44 cows at approximately 50, 150 and 250 days in milk (DIM). The estimated standard deviation for cow-specific organic matter digestibility analysed by AIA was 12.3 g/kg, which is small considering that the average was 724 g/kg. The phenotypic correlation between direct faecal OMD prediction by NIRS and OMD by AIA over the lactation was 0.51. The low repeatability and small variability estimates for direct OMD predictions by NIRS were not accurate enough to quantify small differences in OMD between cows. In contrast to OMD, the repeatability estimates for DMD by iNDF and especially for direct faecal iNDF predictions were 0.32 and 0.46, respectively, indicating that developing of NIRS predictions for cow-specific digestibility is possible. A data subset of 20 cows with daily individual faecal samples was used to develop an on-farm sampling protocol. Based on the assessment of correlations between individual sample combinations and composite samples as well as repeatability estimates for individual sample combinations, we found that collecting up to three individual samples yields a representative composite sample. Collection of samples from all the cows of a herd every third month might be a good choice, because it would yield a better accuracy. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The relative importance of two different mathematical abilities to mathematical achievement.

PubMed

Nunes, Terezinha; Bryant, Peter; Barros, Rossana; Sylva, Kathy

2012-03-01

Two distinct abilities, mathematical reasoning and arithmetic skill, might make separate and specific contributions to mathematical achievement. However, there is little evidence to inform theory and educational practice on this matter. The aims of this study were (1) to assess whether mathematical reasoning and arithmetic make independent contributions to the longitudinal prediction of mathematical achievement over 5 years and (2) to test the specificity of this prediction. Data from Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were available on 2,579 participants for analyses of KS2 achievement and on 1,680 for the analyses of KS3 achievement. Hierarchical regression analyses were used to assess the independence and specificity of the contribution of mathematical reasoning and arithmetic skill to the prediction of achievement in KS2 and KS3 mathematics, science, and English. Age, intelligence, and working memory (WM) were controls in these analyses. Mathematical reasoning and arithmetic did make independent contributions to the prediction of mathematical achievement; mathematical reasoning was by far the stronger predictor of the two. These predictions were specific in so far as these measures were more strongly related to mathematics than to science or English. Intelligence and WM were non-specific predictors; intelligence contributed more to the prediction of science than of maths, and WM predicted maths and English equally well. There is clear justification for making a distinction between mathematical reasoning and arithmetic skills. The implication is that schools must plan explicitly to improve mathematical reasoning as well as arithmetic skills. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

The VSGB 2.0 Model: A Next Generation Energy Model for High Resolution Protein Structure Modeling

PubMed Central

Li, Jianing; Abel, Robert; Zhu, Kai; Cao, Yixiang; Zhao, Suwen; Friesner, Richard A.

2011-01-01

A novel energy model (VSGB 2.0) for high resolution protein structure modeling is described, which features an optimized implicit solvent model as well as physics-based corrections for hydrogen bonding, π-π interactions, self-contact interactions and hydrophobic interactions. Parameters of the VSGB 2.0 model were fit to a crystallographic database of 2239 single side chain and 100 11–13 residue loop predictions. Combined with an advanced method of sampling and a robust algorithm for protonation state assignment, the VSGB 2.0 model was validated by predicting 115 super long loops up to 20 residues. Despite the dramatically increasing difficulty in reconstructing longer loops, a high accuracy was achieved: all of the lowest energy conformations have global backbone RMSDs better than 2.0 Å from the native conformations. Average global backbone RMSDs of the predictions are 0.51, 0.63, 0.70, 0.62, 0.80, 1.41, and 1.59 Å for 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 residue loop predictions, respectively. When these results are corrected for possible statistical bias as explained in the text, the average global backbone RMSDs are 0.61, 0.71, 0.86, 0.62, 1.06, 1.67, and 1.59 Å. Given the precision and robustness of the calculations, we believe that the VSGB 2.0 model is suitable to tackle “real” problems, such as biological function modeling and structure-based drug discovery. PMID:21905107

Do Work Characteristics Predict Health Deterioration Among Employees with Chronic Diseases?

PubMed

de Wind, Astrid; Boot, Cécile R L; Sewdas, Ranu; Scharn, Micky; van den Heuvel, Swenne G; van der Beek, Allard J

2018-06-01

Purpose In our ageing workforce, the increasing numbers of employees with chronic diseases are encouraged to prolong their working lives. It is important to prevent health deterioration in this vulnerable group. This study aims to investigate whether work characteristics predict health deterioration over a 3-year period among employees with (1) chronic diseases, and, more specifically, (2) musculoskeletal and psychological disorders. Methods The study population consisted of 5600 employees aged 45-64 years with a chronic disease, who participated in the Dutch Study on Transitions in Employment, Ability and Motivation (STREAM). Information on work characteristics was derived from the baseline questionnaire. Health deterioration was defined as a decrease in general health (SF-12) between baseline and follow-up (1-3 years). Crude and adjusted logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate prediction of health deterioration by work characteristics. Subgroup analyses were performed for employees with musculoskeletal and psychological disorders. Results At follow-up, 19.2% of the employees reported health deterioration (N = 1075). Higher social support of colleagues or supervisor predicted health deterioration in the crude analyses in the total group, and the groups with either musculoskeletal or psychological disorders (ORs 1.11-1.42). This effect was not found anymore in the adjusted analyses. The other work characteristics did not predict health deterioration in any group. Conclusions This study did not support our hypothesis that work characteristics predict health deterioration among employees with chronic diseases. As our study population succeeded continuing employment to 45 years and beyond, it was probably a relatively healthy selection of employees.

A combined computational-experimental analyses of selected metabolic enzymes in Pseudomonas species.

PubMed

Perumal, Deepak; Lim, Chu Sing; Chow, Vincent T K; Sakharkar, Kishore R; Sakharkar, Meena K

2008-09-10

Comparative genomic analysis has revolutionized our ability to predict the metabolic subsystems that occur in newly sequenced genomes, and to explore the functional roles of the set of genes within each subsystem. These computational predictions can considerably reduce the volume of experimental studies required to assess basic metabolic properties of multiple bacterial species. However, experimental validations are still required to resolve the apparent inconsistencies in the predictions by multiple resources. Here, we present combined computational-experimental analyses on eight completely sequenced Pseudomonas species. Comparative pathway analyses reveal that several pathways within the Pseudomonas species show high plasticity and versatility. Potential bypasses in 11 metabolic pathways were identified. We further confirmed the presence of the enzyme O-acetyl homoserine (thiol) lyase (EC: 2.5.1.49) in P. syringae pv. tomato that revealed inconsistent annotations in KEGG and in the recently published SYSTOMONAS database. These analyses connect and integrate systematic data generation, computational data interpretation, and experimental validation and represent a synergistic and powerful means for conducting biological research.

Joint trajectories of cigarette smoking and depressive symptoms from the mid-20s to the mid-30s predicting generalized anxiety disorder.

PubMed

Lee, Jung Yeon; Brook, Judith S; Finch, Stephen J; De La Rosa, Mario; Brook, David W

2017-01-01

The current study examines longitudinal patterns of cigarette smoking and depressive symptoms as predictors of generalized anxiety disorder using data from the Harlem Longitudinal Development Study. There were 674 African American (53%) and Puerto Rican (47%) participants. Among the 674 participants, 60% were females. In the logistic regression analyses, the indicators of membership in each of the joint trajectories of cigarette smoking and depressive symptoms from the mid-20s to the mid-30s were used as the independent variables, and the diagnosis of generalized anxiety disorder in the mid-30s was used as the dependent variable. The high cigarette smoking with high depressive symptoms group and the low cigarette smoking with high depressive symptoms group were associated with an increased likelihood of having generalized anxiety disorder as compared to the no cigarette smoking with low depressive symptoms group. The findings shed light on the prevention and treatment of generalized anxiety disorder.

BepiPred-2.0: improving sequence-based B-cell epitope prediction using conformational epitopes

PubMed Central

Jespersen, Martin Closter; Peters, Bjoern

2017-01-01

Abstract Antibodies have become an indispensable tool for many biotechnological and clinical applications. They bind their molecular target (antigen) by recognizing a portion of its structure (epitope) in a highly specific manner. The ability to predict epitopes from antigen sequences alone is a complex task. Despite substantial effort, limited advancement has been achieved over the last decade in the accuracy of epitope prediction methods, especially for those that rely on the sequence of the antigen only. Here, we present BepiPred-2.0 (http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/BepiPred/), a web server for predicting B-cell epitopes from antigen sequences. BepiPred-2.0 is based on a random forest algorithm trained on epitopes annotated from antibody-antigen protein structures. This new method was found to outperform other available tools for sequence-based epitope prediction both on epitope data derived from solved 3D structures, and on a large collection of linear epitopes downloaded from the IEDB database. The method displays results in a user-friendly and informative way, both for computer-savvy and non-expert users. We believe that BepiPred-2.0 will be a valuable tool for the bioinformatics and immunology community. PMID:28472356

Do drug treatment variables predict cognitive performance in multidrug-treated opioid-dependent patients? A regression analysis study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Cognitive deficits and multiple psychoactive drug regimens are both common in patients treated for opioid-dependence. Therefore, we examined whether the cognitive performance of patients in opioid-substitution treatment (OST) is associated with their drug treatment variables. Methods Opioid-dependent patients (N = 104) who were treated either with buprenorphine or methadone (n = 52 in both groups) were given attention, working memory, verbal, and visual memory tests after they had been a minimum of six months in treatment. Group-wise results were analysed by analysis of variance. Predictors of cognitive performance were examined by hierarchical regression analysis. Results Buprenorphine-treated patients performed statistically significantly better in a simple reaction time test than methadone-treated ones. No other significant differences between groups in cognitive performance were found. In each OST drug group, approximately 10% of the attention performance could be predicted by drug treatment variables. Use of benzodiazepine medication predicted about 10% of performance variance in working memory. Treatment with more than one other psychoactive drug (than opioid or BZD) and frequent substance abuse during the past month predicted about 20% of verbal memory performance. Conclusions Although this study does not prove a causal relationship between multiple prescription drug use and poor cognitive functioning, the results are relevant for psychosocial recovery, vocational rehabilitation, and psychological treatment of OST patients. Especially for patients with BZD treatment, other treatment options should be actively sought. PMID:23121989

SeedVicious: Analysis of microRNA target and near-target sites.

PubMed

Marco, Antonio

2018-01-01

Here I describe seedVicious, a versatile microRNA target site prediction software that can be easily fitted into annotation pipelines and run over custom datasets. SeedVicious finds microRNA canonical sites plus other, less efficient, target sites. Among other novel features, seedVicious can compute evolutionary gains/losses of target sites using maximum parsimony, and also detect near-target sites, which have one nucleotide different from a canonical site. Near-target sites are important to study population variation in microRNA regulation. Some analyses suggest that near-target sites may also be functional sites, although there is no conclusive evidence for that, and they may actually be target alleles segregating in a population. SeedVicious does not aim to outperform but to complement existing microRNA prediction tools. For instance, the precision of TargetScan is almost doubled (from 11% to ~20%) when we filter predictions by the distance between target sites using this program. Interestingly, two adjacent canonical target sites are more likely to be present in bona fide target transcripts than pairs of target sites at slightly longer distances. The software is written in Perl and runs on 64-bit Unix computers (Linux and MacOS X). Users with no computing experience can also run the program in a dedicated web-server by uploading custom data, or browse pre-computed predictions. SeedVicious and its associated web-server and database (SeedBank) are distributed under the GPL/GNU license.

Alexithymia predicts arousal-based processing deficits and discordance between emotion response systems during emotional imagery.

PubMed

Peasley-Miklus, Catherine E; Panayiotou, Georgia; Vrana, Scott R

2016-03-01

Alexithymia is believed to involve deficits in emotion processing and imagery ability. Previous findings suggest that it is especially related to deficits in processing the arousal dimension of emotion, and that discordance may exist between self-report and physiological responses to emotional stimuli in alexithymia. The current study used a well-established emotional imagery paradigm to examine emotion processing deficits and discordance in participants (N = 86) selected based on their extreme scores on the Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20. Physiological (skin conductance, heart rate, and corrugator and zygomaticus electromyographic responses) and self-report (valence, arousal ratings) responses were monitored during imagery of anger, fear, joy, and neutral scenes and emotionally neutral high arousal (action) scenes. Results from regression analyses indicated that alexithymia was largely unrelated to responses on valence-based measures (facial electromyography, valence ratings), but that it was related to arousal-based measures. Specifically, alexithymia was related to higher heart rate during neutral and lower heart rate during fear imagery. Alexithymia did not predict differential responses to action versus neutral imagery, suggesting specificity of deficits to emotional contexts. Evidence for discordance between physiological responses and self-report in alexithymia was obtained from within-person analyses using multilevel modeling. Results are consistent with the idea that alexithymic deficits are specific to processing emotional arousal, and suggest difficulties with parasympathetic control and emotion regulation. Alexithymia is also associated with discordance between self-reported emotional experience and physiological response to emotion, consistent with prior evidence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Ability of procalcitonin to predict bacterial meningitis in the emergency department.

PubMed

Morales Casado, M I; Moreno Alonso, F; Juárez Belaunde, A L; Heredero Gálvez, E; Talavera Encinas, O; Julián-Jiménez, A

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyse and compare procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) as tools for detecting bacterial meningitis and predicting bacteraemia. Prospective, observational, and descriptive analytical study of 98 consecutive patients aged ≥15 years and diagnosed with acute meningitis in an emergency department between August 2009 and July 2013. We analysed 98 patients with AM (66 males [67%]); mean age was 44±21 years. The diagnosis was bacterial meningitis in 38 patients (20 with bacteraemia); viral meningitis in 33; probable viral meningitis in 15; and presumptively diagnosed partially treated acute meningitis in 12. PCT had the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.996; 95% CI, 0.987-1; p<0.001). With a cutoff of ≥ 0.74 ng/ml, PCT achieved 94.7% sensitivity, 100% specificity, negative predictive value (NPV) of 93.9%, and positive predictive value (PPV) of 100%. The mean levels for PCT were11.47±7.76 ng/ml in bacterial meningitis vs. 0.10±0.15 ng/ml in viral meningitis (p <0.001). The AUC for CRP was 0.916 and a cutoff of ≥ 90 mg/L achieved 67.5% sensitivity, 86.3% specificity, PPV of 89.2%, and NPV of 90.4%. As a predictor of bacteraemia in bacterial meningitis, only PCT delivered a significant difference (14.7±7.1 ng/mL vs. 4.68±3.54 ng/mL, p<0.001). A cutoff of ≥ 1.1 ng/mL achieved 94.6% sensitivity, 72.4% specificity, NPV of 95.4%, and PPV of 69.2%; the AUC was 0.965 (95% CI, 0.921-1; p<0.001). PCT has a high diagnostic power for acute meningitis in emergency department patients. PCT outperforms CRP in the detection of bacterial aetiology and is a good predictor of bacteraemia in bacterial meningitis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Potential of a newly developed high-speed near-infrared (NIR) camera (Compovision) in polymer industrial analyses: monitoring crystallinity and crystal evolution of polylactic acid (PLA) and concentration of PLA in PLA/Poly-(R)-3-hydroxybutyrate (PHB) blends.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Daitaro; Nishii, Takashi; Mizuno, Fumiaki; Sato, Harumi; Kazarian, Sergei G; Ozaki, Yukihiro

2013-12-01

This study was carried out to evaluate a new high-speed hyperspectral near-infrared (NIR) camera named Compovision. Quantitative analyses of the crystallinity and crystal evolution of biodegradable polymer, polylactic acid (PLA), and its concentration in PLA/poly-(R)-3-hydroxybutyrate (PHB) blends were investigated using near-infrared (NIR) imaging. This NIR camera can measure two-dimensional NIR spectral data in the 1000-2350 nm region obtaining images with wide field of view of 150 × 250 mm(2) (approximately 100  000 pixels) at high speeds (in less than 5 s). PLA with differing crystallinities between 0 and 50% blended samples with PHB in ratios of 80/20, 60/40, 40/60, 20/80, and pure films of 100% PLA and PHB were prepared. Compovision was used to collect respective NIR spectra in the 1000-2350 nm region and investigate the crystallinity of PLA and its concentration in the blends. The partial least squares (PLS) regression models for the crystallinity of PLA were developed using absorbance, second derivative, and standard normal variate (SNV) spectra from the most informative region of the spectra, between 1600 and 2000 nm. The predicted results of PLS models achieved using the absorbance and second derivative spectra were fairly good with a root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 6.1% and a determination of coefficient (R(2)) of more than 0.88 for PLS factor 1. The results obtained using the SNV spectra yielded the best prediction with the smallest RMSE of 2.93% and the highest R(2) of 0.976. Moreover, PLS models developed for estimating the concentration of PLA in the blend polymers using SNV spectra gave good predicted results where the RMSE was 4.94% and R(2) was 0.98. The SNV-based models provided the best-predicted results, since it can reduce the effects of the spectral changes induced by the inhomogeneity and the thickness of the samples. Wide area crystal evolution of PLA on a plate where a temperature slope of 70-105 °C had occurred was also monitored using NIR imaging. An SNV-based image gave an obvious contrast of the crystallinity around the crystal growth area according to slight temperature change. Moreover, it clarified the inhomogeneity of crystal evolution over the significant wide area. These results have proved that the newly developed hyperspectral NIR camera, Compovision, can be successfully used to study polymers for industrial processes, such as monitoring the crystallinity of PLA and the different composition of PLA/PHB blends.

Modeling and Analysis of Structural Dynamics for a One-Tenth Scale Model NGST Sunshield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, John; Lienard, Sebastien; Brodeur, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

New modeling and analysis techniques have been developed for predicting the dynamic behavior of the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) sunshield. The sunshield consists of multiple layers of pretensioned, thin-film membranes supported by deployable booms. Modeling the structural dynamic behavior of the sunshield is a challenging aspect of the problem due to the effects of membrane wrinkling. A finite element model of the sunshield was developed using an approximate engineering approach, the cable network method, to account for membrane wrinkling effects. Ground testing of a one-tenth scale model of the NGST sunshield were carried out to provide data for validating the analytical model. A series of analyses were performed to predict the behavior of the sunshield under the ground test conditions. Modal analyses were performed to predict the frequencies and mode shapes of the test article and transient response analyses were completed to simulate impulse excitation tests. Comparison was made between analytical predictions and test measurements for the dynamic behavior of the sunshield. In general, the results show good agreement with the analytical model correctly predicting the approximate frequency and mode shapes for the significant structural modes.

Development of steady-state model for MSPT and detailed analyses of receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuasa, Minoru; Sonoda, Masanori; Hino, Koichi

2016-05-01

Molten salt parabolic trough system (MSPT) uses molten salt as heat transfer fluid (HTF) instead of synthetic oil. The demonstration plant of MSPT was constructed by Chiyoda Corporation and Archimede Solar Energy in Italy in 2013. Chiyoda Corporation developed a steady-state model for predicting the theoretical behavior of the demonstration plant. The model was designed to calculate the concentrated solar power and heat loss using ray tracing of incident solar light and finite element modeling of thermal energy transferred into the medium. This report describes the verification of the model using test data on the demonstration plant, detailed analyses on the relation between flow rate and temperature difference on the metal tube of receiver and the effect of defocus angle on concentrated power rate, for solar collector assembly (SCA) development. The model is accurate to an extent of 2.0% as systematic error and 4.2% as random error. The relationships between flow rate and temperature difference on metal tube and the effect of defocus angle on concentrated power rate are shown.

System-Wide Adaptations of Desulfovibrio alaskensis G20 to Phosphate-Limited Conditions

DOE PAGES

Bosak, Tanja; Schubotz, Florence; de Santiago-Torio, Ana; ...

2016-12-28

The prevalence of lipids devoid of phosphorus suggests that the availability of phosphorus limits microbial growth and activity in many anoxic, stratified environments. To better understand the response of anaerobic bacteria to phosphate limitation and starvation, this study combines microscopic and lipid analyses with the measurements of fitness of pooled barcoded transposon mutants of the model sulfate reducing bacterium Desulfovibrio alaskensis G20. Phosphate-limited G20 has lower growth rates and replaces more than 90% of its membrane phospholipids by a mixture of monoglycosyl diacylglycerol (MGDG), glycuronic acid diacylglycerol (GADG) and ornithine lipids, lacks polyphosphate granules, and synthesizes other cellular inclusions. Analysesmore » of pooled and individual mutants reveal the importance of the high-affinity phosphate transport system (the Pst system), PhoR, and glycolipid and ornithine lipid synthases during phosphate limitation. The phosphate-dependent synthesis of MGDG in G20 and the widespread occurrence of the MGDG/GADG synthase among sulfate reducing @-Proteobacteria implicate these microbes in the production of abundant MGDG in anaerobic environments where the concentrations of phosphate are lower than 10 μM. Numerous predicted changes in the composition of the cell envelope and systems involved in transport, maintenance of cytoplasmic redox potential, central metabolism and regulatory pathways also suggest an impact of phosphate limitation on the susceptibility of sulfate reducing bacteria to other anthropogenic or environmental stresses.« less

System-Wide Adaptations of Desulfovibrio alaskensis G20 to Phosphate-Limited Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bosak, Tanja; Schubotz, Florence; de Santiago-Torio, Ana

The prevalence of lipids devoid of phosphorus suggests that the availability of phosphorus limits microbial growth and activity in many anoxic, stratified environments. To better understand the response of anaerobic bacteria to phosphate limitation and starvation, this study combines microscopic and lipid analyses with the measurements of fitness of pooled barcoded transposon mutants of the model sulfate reducing bacterium Desulfovibrio alaskensis G20. Phosphate-limited G20 has lower growth rates and replaces more than 90% of its membrane phospholipids by a mixture of monoglycosyl diacylglycerol (MGDG), glycuronic acid diacylglycerol (GADG) and ornithine lipids, lacks polyphosphate granules, and synthesizes other cellular inclusions. Analysesmore » of pooled and individual mutants reveal the importance of the high-affinity phosphate transport system (the Pst system), PhoR, and glycolipid and ornithine lipid synthases during phosphate limitation. The phosphate-dependent synthesis of MGDG in G20 and the widespread occurrence of the MGDG/GADG synthase among sulfate reducing @-Proteobacteria implicate these microbes in the production of abundant MGDG in anaerobic environments where the concentrations of phosphate are lower than 10 μM. Numerous predicted changes in the composition of the cell envelope and systems involved in transport, maintenance of cytoplasmic redox potential, central metabolism and regulatory pathways also suggest an impact of phosphate limitation on the susceptibility of sulfate reducing bacteria to other anthropogenic or environmental stresses.« less

Large-scale binding ligand prediction by improved patch-based method Patch-Surfer2.0

PubMed Central

Zhu, Xiaolei; Xiong, Yi; Kihara, Daisuke

2015-01-01

Motivation: Ligand binding is a key aspect of the function of many proteins. Thus, binding ligand prediction provides important insight in understanding the biological function of proteins. Binding ligand prediction is also useful for drug design and examining potential drug side effects. Results: We present a computational method named Patch-Surfer2.0, which predicts binding ligands for a protein pocket. By representing and comparing pockets at the level of small local surface patches that characterize physicochemical properties of the local regions, the method can identify binding pockets of the same ligand even if they do not share globally similar shapes. Properties of local patches are represented by an efficient mathematical representation, 3D Zernike Descriptor. Patch-Surfer2.0 has significant technical improvements over our previous prototype, which includes a new feature that captures approximate patch position with a geodesic distance histogram. Moreover, we constructed a large comprehensive database of ligand binding pockets that will be searched against by a query. The benchmark shows better performance of Patch-Surfer2.0 over existing methods. Availability and implementation: http://kiharalab.org/patchsurfer2.0/ Contact: dkihara@purdue.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:25359888

Smoking and Illicit Drug Use Associations With Early Versus Delayed Reproduction: Findings in a Young Adult Cohort of Australian Twins*

PubMed Central

Waldron, Mary; Heath, Andrew C.; Lynskey, Michael T.; Nelson, Elliot C.; Bucholz, Kathleen K.; Madden, Pamela A.F.; Martin, Nicholas G.

2009-01-01

Objective: This article examines relationships between reproductive onset and lifetime history of smoking, regular smoking, and nicotine dependence, and cannabis and other illicit drug use. Method: Data were drawn from a young adult cohort of 3,386 female and 2,751 male Australian twins born between 1964 and 1971. Survival analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazards regression models predicting age at first childbirth from history of substance use or disorder separately by substance class. Other substance use or disorder, including alcohol dependence, as well as sociodemographic characteristics, history of psychopathology, and family and childhood risks, were included as control variables in adjusted models. Results: Regular smoking and nicotine dependence were associated with earlier reproduction, with pronounced effects for women. For women, use of cannabis was associated with early reproduction before age 20, and with delayed reproduction among women who have not reproduced by age 20 or 25. Adjustment for control variables only partially explained these associations. Conclusions: Consistent with research linking adolescent use with sexual risk taking predictive of early childbearing, regular smokers and nicotine-dependent individuals show earlier reproductive onset. In contrast, delays in childbearing associated with use of cannabis are consistent with impairments in reproductive ability and/or opportunities for reproduction. Continued research on risks both upstream and downstream of substance-use initiation and onset of substance-use disorder is needed for causal mechanisms to be fully understood. PMID:19737504

Perioperative Non-Invasive Indocyanine Green-Clearance Testing to Predict Postoperative Outcome after Liver Resection

PubMed Central

Haegele, Stefanie; Reiter, Silvia; Wanek, David; Offensperger, Florian; Pereyra, David; Stremitzer, Stefan; Fleischmann, Edith; Brostjan, Christine; Gruenberger, Thomas; Starlinger, Patrick

2016-01-01

Background Postoperative liver dysfunction may lead to morbidity and mortality after liver resection. Preoperative liver function assessment is critical to identify preexisting liver dysfunction in patients prior to resection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive potential of perioperative indocyanine green (ICG)-clearance testing to prevent postoperative liver dysfunction and morbidity using standardized outcome parameters in a routine Western-clinical-setting. Study Design 137 patients undergoing partial hepatectomy between 2011 and 2013, at the general hospital of Vienna, were included. ICG-clearance was recorded one day prior to surgery as well as on the first and fifth postoperative day. Postoperative liver dysfunction was defined according to the International Study Group of Liver Surgery and evaluation of morbidity was based on the Dindo-Clavien classification. Statistical analyses were based on non-parametric tests. Results Preoperative reduced ICG—plasma disappearance rate (PDR) as well as increased ICG—retention rate at 15 min (R15) were able to significantly predict postoperative liver dysfunction (Area under the curve = PDR: 0.716, P = 0.018; R15: 0.719, P = 0.016). Furthermore, PDR <17%/min. or R15 >8%, were able to accurately predict postoperative complications prior to surgery. In addition to this, ICG-clearance on postoperative day 1 comparably predicted postoperative liver dysfunction (Area under the curve = PDR: 0.895; R15: 0.893; both P <0.001), specifically, PDR <10%/min or R15 >20% on postoperative day 1 predicted poor postoperative outcome. Conclusion PDR and R15 may represent useful parameters to distinguish preoperative high and low risk patients in a Western collective as well as on postoperative day 1, to identify patients who require closer monitoring for potential complications. PMID:27812143

Predicting Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease at a North American Center: An Assessment of Baseline z Scores.

PubMed

Son, Mary Beth F; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Kim, Susan; Tang, Alexander; Dedeoglu, Fatma; Fulton, David R; Lo, Mindy S; Baker, Annette L; Sundel, Robert P; Newburger, Jane W

2017-05-31

Accurate risk prediction of coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) in North American children with Kawasaki disease remains a clinical challenge. We sought to determine the predictive utility of baseline coronary dimensions adjusted for body surface area ( z scores) for future CAAs in Kawasaki disease and explored the extent to which addition of established Japanese risk scores to baseline coronary artery z scores improved discrimination for CAA development. We explored the relationships of CAA with baseline z scores; with Kobayashi, Sano, Egami, and Harada risk scores; and with the combination of baseline z scores and risk scores. We defined CAA as a maximum z score (zMax) ≥2.5 of the left anterior descending or right coronary artery at 4 to 8 weeks of illness. Of 261 patients, 77 patients (29%) had a baseline zMax ≥2.0. CAAs occurred in 15 patients (6%). CAAs were strongly associated with baseline zMax ≥2.0 versus <2.0 (12 [16%] versus 3 [2%], respectively, P <0.001). Baseline zMax ≥2.0 had a C statistic of 0.77, good sensitivity (80%), and excellent negative predictive value (98%). None of the risk scores alone had adequate discrimination. When high-risk status per the Japanese risk scores was added to models containing baseline zMax ≥2.0, none were significantly better than baseline zMax ≥2.0 alone. In a North American center, baseline zMax ≥2.0 in children with Kawasaki disease demonstrated high predictive utility for later development of CAA. Future studies should validate the utility of our findings. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Integrated NDE and FEM characterization of composite rotors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdul-Aziz, Ali; Baaklini, George Y.; Trudell, Jeffrey J.

2001-08-01

A structural assessment by integrating finite-element methods (FEM) and a nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of two flywheel rotor assemblies is presented. Composite rotor A is pancake like with a solid hub design, and composite rotor B is cylindrical with a hollow hub design. Detailed analyses under combined centrifugal and interference-fit loading are performed. Two- and three-dimensional stress analyses and two-dimensional fracture mechanics analyses are conducted. A comparison of the structural analysis results obtained with those extracted via NDE findings is reported. Contact effects due to press-fit conditions are evaluated. Stress results generated from the finite-element analyses were corroborated with the analytical solution. Cracks due to rotational loading up to 48 000 rpm for rotor A and 34 000 rpm for rotor B were successfully imaged with NDE and predicted with FEM and fracture mechanics analyses. A procedure that extends current structural analysis to a life prediction tool is also defined.

An Integrated NDE and FEM Characterization of Composite Rotors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdul-Aziz, Ali; Baaklini, George Y.; Trudell, Jeffrey J.

2000-01-01

A structural assessment by integrating finite-element methods (FEM) and a nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of two flywheel rotor assemblies is presented. Composite rotor A is pancake like with a solid hub design, and composite rotor B is cylindrical with a hollow hub design. Detailed analyses under combined centrifugal and interference-fit loading are performed. Two- and three-dimensional stress analyses and two-dimensional fracture mechanics analyses are conducted. A comparison of the structural analysis results obtained with those extracted via NDE findings is reported. Contact effects due to press-fit conditions are evaluated. Stress results generated from the finite-element analyses were corroborated with the analytical solution. Cracks due to rotational loading up to 49 000 rpm for rotor A and 34 000 rpm for rotor B were successfully imaged with NDE and predicted with FEM and fracture mechanics analyses. A procedure that extends current structural analysis to a life prediction tool is also defined.

Structural Analysis of Composite Flywheels: an Integrated NDE and FEM Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdul-Aziz, Ali; Baaklini, George; Trudell, Jeffrey

2001-01-01

A structural assessment by integrating finite-element methods (FEM) and a nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of two flywheel rotor assemblies is presented. Composite rotor A is pancake-like with a solid hub design, and composite rotor B is cylindrical with a hollow hub design. Detailed analyses under combined centrifugal and interference-fit loading are performed. Two- and three-dimensional stress analyses and two-dimensional fracture mechanics analyses are conducted. A comparison of the structural analysis results obtained with those extracted via NDE findings is reported. Contact effects due to press-fit conditions are evaluated. Stress results generated from the finite-element analyses were corroborated with the analytical solution. Cracks due to rotational loading up to 48,000 rpm for rotor A and 34,000 rpm for rotor B were successfully imaged with NDE and predicted with FEM and fracture mechanics analyses. A procedure that extends current structural analysis to a life prediction tool is also defined.

Predictors of unstructured antiretroviral treatment interruption and resumption among HIV-positive individuals in Canada.

PubMed

Samji, H; Taha, T E; Moore, D; Burchell, A N; Cescon, A; Cooper, C; Raboud, J M; Klein, M B; Loutfy, M R; Machouf, N; Tsoukas, C M; Montaner, J S G; Hogg, R S

2015-02-01

Sustained optimal use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has been shown to decrease morbidity, mortality and HIV transmission. However, incomplete adherence and treatment interruption (TI) remain challenges to the full realization of the promise of cART. We estimated trends and predictors of treatment interruption and resumption among individuals in the Canadian Observational Cohort (CANOC) collaboration. cART-naïve individuals ≥ 18 years of age who initiated cART between 2000 and 2011 were included in the study. We defined TIs as ≥ 90 consecutive days off cART. We used descriptive analyses to study TI trends over time and Cox regression to identify factors predicting time to first TI and time to treatment resumption after a first TI. A total of 7633 participants were eligible for inclusion in the study, of whom 1860 (24.5%) experienced a TI. The prevalence of TI in the first calendar year of cART decreased by half over the study period. Our analyses highlighted a higher risk of TI among women [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.92], younger individuals (aHR 1.27; 95% CI 1.15-1.37 per decade increase), earlier treatment initiators (CD4 count ≥ 350 vs. <200 cells/μL: aHR 1.46; 95% CI 1.17-1.81), Aboriginal participants (aHR 1.67; 95% CI 1.27-2.20), injecting drug users (aHR 1.43; 95% CI 1.09-1.89) and users of zidovudine vs. tenofovir in the initial cART regimen (aHR 2.47; 95% CI 1.92-3.20). Conversely, factors predicting treatment resumption were male sex, older age, and a CD4 cell count <200 cells/μL at cART initiation. Despite significant improvements in cART since its advent, our results demonstrate that TIs remain relatively prevalent. Strategies to support continuous HIV treatment are needed to maximize the benefits of cART. © 2014 British HIV Association.

Ligand-based 3D QSAR analysis of reactivation potency of mono- and bis-pyridinium aldoximes toward VX-inhibited rat acetylcholinesterase.

PubMed

Dolezal, Rafael; Korabecny, Jan; Malinak, David; Honegr, Jan; Musilek, Kamil; Kuca, Kamil

2015-03-01

To predict unknown reactivation potencies of 12 mono- and bis-pyridinium aldoximes for VX-inhibited rat acetylcholinesterase (rAChE), three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (3D QSAR) analysis has been carried out. Utilizing molecular interaction fields (MIFs) calculated by molecular mechanical (MMFF94) and quantum chemical (B3LYP/6-31G*) methods, two satisfactory ligand-based CoMFA models have been developed: 1. R(2)=0.9989, Q(LOO)(2)=0.9090, Q(LTO)(2)=0.8921, Q(LMO(20%))(2)=0.8853, R(ext)(2)=0.9259, SDEP(ext)=6.8938; 2. R(2)=0.9962, Q(LOO)(2)=0.9368, Q(LTO)(2)=0.9298, Q(LMO(20%))(2)=0.9248, R(ext)(2)=0.8905, SDEP(ext)=6.6756. High statistical significance of the 3D QSAR models has been achieved through the application of several data noise reduction techniques (i.e. smart region definition SRD, fractional factor design FFD, uninformative/iterative variable elimination UVE/IVE) on the original MIFs. Besides the ligand-based CoMFA models, an alignment molecular set constructed by flexible molecular docking has been also studied. The contour maps as well as the predicted reactivation potencies resulting from 3D QSAR analyses help better understand which structural features are associated with increased reactivation potency of studied compounds. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding the prevalence of lifetime abstinence from alcohol: An ecological study.

PubMed

Probst, Charlotte; Manthey, Jakob; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-09-01

The level of alcohol consumption and related burden in a country are strongly impacted by the prevalence of abstinence from alcohol use. The objective of this study was to characterize the association of lifetime abstinence from alcohol use with economic wealth (as measured in the gross domestic product [GDP]) and Muslim religion on a country level. An ecological study was performed using aggregate data of 183 countries for the year 2010. Lifetime abstinence among men and women was predicted using fractional response regression models with the natural logarithm of GDP-PPP (purchasing power parity) and the proportion of Muslim population as predictors. The models were further adjusted by the country's median age and World Health Organization region. Precision of prediction was investigated. Descriptive analyses showed a strong negative association between GDP-PPP and lifetime abstinence in countries without a Muslim majority and a GDP-PPP up to 20,000 international dollars. Regression models confirmed the negative association with GDP-PPP and showed a strong positive association between lifetime abstinence and the proportion of Muslim population. Stratified sensitivity analyses showed that in countries without a Muslim majority only GDP-PPP showed a statistically significant association whereas in Muslim majority countries only the proportion of Muslims was associated with the prevalence of lifetime abstinence. Particularly in countries with a lower GDP and without Muslim majority the prevalence of lifetime abstinence from alcohol use is strongly negatively associated with GDP-PPP. Future research should analyze the accordance in trends of GDP and lifetime abstinence over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trajectory and correlates of growth of extremely-low-birth-weight adolescents.

PubMed

Hack, Maureen; Schluchter, Mark; Margevicius, Seunghee; Andreias, Laura; Taylor, H Gerry; Cuttler, Leona

2014-02-01

Catch-up growth may predispose to obesity and metabolic sequelae. We sought to examine the trajectory and correlates of growth and catch up among extremely-low-birth-weight (ELBW) (<1 kg) adolescents. A cohort study of 148 neurologically normal ELBW children and 115 normal-birth-weight (NBW) controls born during the period 1992-1995 was conducted. Longitudinal measures of gender-specific growth of ELBW children from birth, in addition to growth and measures of obesity of ELBW and NBW children at 14 y, were evaluated. Following neonatal growth failure, ELBW children had accelerated growth, but at 8 y, they still had lower weight and height z scores than NBW children. By 14 y, ELBW boys had caught up in growth to their NBW controls, but ELBW girls remained significantly smaller. ELBW children, however, did not differ from their controls in measures of obesity. In hierarchical multiple regression analyses, only maternal BMI and weight gain during infancy and childhood predicted the ELBW children's 14-y weight z scores, BMI z scores, and abdominal circumference. Perinatal risk factors, including intrauterine growth, only predicted growth up to 20 mo. Maternal BMI and rate of growth, rather than perinatal factors, predict 14-y obesity among neurologically normal ELBW adolescents.

Prediction of the ageing of commercial lager beer during storage based on the degradation of iso-α-acids.

PubMed

Blanco, Carlos A; Nimubona, Dieudonné; Caballero, Isabel

2014-08-01

Iso-α-acids and their chemically modified variants are responsible for the bitterness of beer and play a disproportionately large role in the final quality of beer. The current study was undertaken to predict the degradation of commercial lager beers related to changes in the concentration of trans-iso-α-acids during storage by using high-pressure liquid chromatography. In the analysed beers the concentration of isohumulone (average concentration 28 mg L(-1)) was greater than that of isocohumulone (20 mg L(-1)) and isoadhumulone (10 mg L(-1)). The kinetic parameters, activation energy and rate constant, of the trans-iso-α-acids were calculated. In the case of dark beers, the activation energy for the degradation of trans-isocohumulones was found to be higher than for trans-isohumulones and trans-isoadhumulones, whereas in pale and alcohol-free beers activation energies for the degradation of the three trans isomers were similar. The loss of iso-α-acids can be calculated using the activation energy of the degradation of trans-iso-α-acids and the temperature profile of the accelerated ageing. The results obtained in the investigation can be used in the beer industry to predict the alteration of the bitterness of beer during storage. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

The value of radiology in predicting gallstone type when selecting patients for medical treatment.

PubMed Central

Bell, G D; Dowling, R H; Whitney, B; Sutor, D J

1975-01-01

Since medical treatment of gallstones is confined to cholesterol-rich stones, the ability of clinical radiographs to predict gallstone type was tested prospectively by comparing the preoperative radiological appearance of gallstones from 57 unselected patients with cholelithiasis coming to cholecystectomy with the subsequent analysis of the stones both by X-ray diffraction and by chemical techniques. Fifty-two per cent of the patients had 'non-functioning' gallbladders which failed to opacify after at least two contrast examinations and 25 out of 50 had radioopaque stones. Of the 25 patients with radiolucent stones, the stones in 20 ((80%) were predominantly cholesterol in type but radiology was misleading in five; three contained 40-55% calcium salts but were still radiolucent while two were amorphous and contained less than 10% cholesterol by weight on chemical analysis. While radiology was sometimes misleading when the stones were small and irregular, large radiolucent stones with a smooth profile were invariably cholesterol-rich stones. The results also show that in men calcified stones were commoner than in women and that in older women the gallstones contained more calcium salts and less cholesterol than in younger women less than 50 yr). This paper analyses critically the value and limitations of clinical radiology in predicting gallstone type. PMID:1140634

Viking navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneil, W. J.; Rudd, R. P.; Farless, D. L.; Hildebrand, C. E.; Mitchell, R. T.; Rourke, K. H.; Euler, E. A.

1979-01-01

A comprehensive description of the navigation of the Viking spacecraft throughout their flight from Earth launch to Mars landing is given. The flight path design, actual inflight control, and postflight reconstruction are discussed in detail. The preflight analyses upon which the operational strategies and performance predictions were based are discussed. The inflight results are then discussed and compared with the preflight predictions and, finally, the results of any postflight analyses are presented.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Suppression of homocysteine levels by vitamin B12 and folates: age and gender dependency in the Jackson Heart Study.

PubMed

Henry, Olivia R; Benghuzzi, Hamed; Taylor, Herman A; Tucci, Michelle; Butler, Kenneth; Jones, Lynne

2012-08-01

To examine factors potentially contributing to premature cardiovascular disease mortality in African Americans (40% versus 20% all other populations), plasma homocysteine, serum vitamin B12 and folate levels were examined for African American participants in the Jackson Heart Study. Of 5192 African American Jackson Heart Study participants (21-94 years), 5064 (mean age, 55 ± 13 years; 63% female) had homocysteine levels measured via fasting blood samples, with further assessments of participants' vitamin B12 (n = 1790) and folate (n = 1788) levels. Regression analyses were used to examine age, gender, vitamin B12 and folate with homocysteine levels. Homocysteine levels, a purported surrogate risk factor for cardiovascular disease, increased with age, were inversely proportional to folate and vitamin B12 levels (P < 0.001) and were higher for men of all ages. The results show that, as with other populations, age, gender, vitamin B12 and folate may predict homocysteine levels for African Americans. Diet may be an important predictive factor as well, given the relationships that were observed between plasma homocysteine and serum B vitamin levels.

Some Predicted and Unpredicted Changes in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Bruce

1996-01-01

Predictions made in 1978 about Australian higher education are re-examined. Very inaccurate enrollment predictions are attributed to unforeseen demand and supply influences. The end to the binary system of higher education, a major change in 1989, was not predicted. However, early analyses of relationships between education, employment, and…

Predicting 3D structure and stability of RNA pseudoknots in monovalent and divalent ion solutions.

PubMed

Shi, Ya-Zhou; Jin, Lei; Feng, Chen-Jie; Tan, Ya-Lan; Tan, Zhi-Jie

2018-06-01

RNA pseudoknots are a kind of minimal RNA tertiary structural motifs, and their three-dimensional (3D) structures and stability play essential roles in a variety of biological functions. Therefore, to predict 3D structures and stability of RNA pseudoknots is essential for understanding their functions. In the work, we employed our previously developed coarse-grained model with implicit salt to make extensive predictions and comprehensive analyses on the 3D structures and stability for RNA pseudoknots in monovalent/divalent ion solutions. The comparisons with available experimental data show that our model can successfully predict the 3D structures of RNA pseudoknots from their sequences, and can also make reliable predictions for the stability of RNA pseudoknots with different lengths and sequences over a wide range of monovalent/divalent ion concentrations. Furthermore, we made comprehensive analyses on the unfolding pathway for various RNA pseudoknots in ion solutions. Our analyses for extensive pseudokonts and the wide range of monovalent/divalent ion concentrations verify that the unfolding pathway of RNA pseudoknots is mainly dependent on the relative stability of unfolded intermediate states, and show that the unfolding pathway of RNA pseudoknots can be significantly modulated by their sequences and solution ion conditions.

Potential of MR histogram analyses for prediction of response to chemotherapy in patients with colorectal hepatic metastases.

PubMed

Liang, He-Yue; Huang, Ya-Qin; Yang, Zhao-Xia; Ying-Ding; Zeng, Meng-Su; Rao, Sheng-Xiang

2016-07-01

To determine if magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) histogram analyses can help predict response to chemotherapy in patients with colorectal hepatic metastases by using response evaluation criteria in solid tumours (RECIST1.1) as the reference standard. Standard MRI including diffusion-weighted imaging (b=0, 500 s/mm(2)) was performed before chemotherapy in 53 patients with colorectal hepatic metastases. Histograms were performed for apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, arterial, and portal venous phase images; thereafter, mean, percentiles (1st, 10th, 50th, 90th, 99th), skewness, kurtosis, and variance were generated. Quantitative histogram parameters were compared between responders (partial and complete response, n=15) and non-responders (progressive and stable disease, n=38). Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) analyses were further analyzed for the significant parameters. The mean, 1st percentile, 10th percentile, 50th percentile, 90th percentile, 99th percentile of the ADC maps were significantly lower in responding group than that in non-responding group (p=0.000-0.002) with area under the ROC curve (AUCs) of 0.76-0.82. The histogram parameters of arterial and portal venous phase showed no significant difference (p>0.05) between the two groups. Histogram-derived parameters for ADC maps seem to be a promising tool for predicting response to chemotherapy in patients with colorectal hepatic metastases. • ADC histogram analyses can potentially predict chemotherapy response in colorectal liver metastases. • Lower histogram-derived parameters (mean, percentiles) for ADC tend to have good response. • MR enhancement histogram analyses are not reliable to predict response.

Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) may play a major role in risk stratification based on cerebral oxygen saturation by near-infrared spectroscopy in patients undergoing major cardiovascular surgery

PubMed Central

Hayashida, Masakazu; Matsushita, Satoshi; Yamamoto, Makiko; Nakamura, Atsushi; Amano, Atsushi

2017-01-01

Purpose A previous study reported that low baseline cerebral oxygen saturation (ScO2) (≤50%) measured with near-infrared spectroscopy was predictive of poor clinical outcomes after cardiac surgery. However, such findings have not been reconfirmed by others. We conducted the current study to evaluate whether the previous findings would be reproducible, and to explore mechanisms underlying the ScO2-based outcome prediction. Methods We retrospectively investigated 573 consecutive patients, aged 20 to 91 (mean ± standard deviation, 67.1 ± 12.8) years, who underwent major cardiovascular surgery. Preanesthetic baseline ScO2, lowest intraoperative ScO2, various clinical variables, and hospital mortality were examined. Results Bivariate regression analyses revealed that baseline ScO2 correlated significantly with plasma brain natriuretic peptide concentration (BNP), hemoglobin concentration (Hgb), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (p < 0.0001 for each). Baseline ScO2 correlated with BNP in an exponential manner, and BNP was the most significant factor influencing ScO2. Logistic regression analyses revealed that baseline and lowest intraoperative ScO2 values, but not relative ScO2 decrements, were significantly associated with hospital mortality (p < 0.05), independent of the EuroSCORE (p < 0.01). Receiver operating curve analysis of ScO2 values and hospital mortality revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.715 (p < 0.01) and a cutoff value of ≤50.5% for the baseline and ScO2, and an AUC of 0.718 (p < 0.05) and a cutoff value of ≤35% for the lowest intraoperative ScO2. Low baseline ScO2 (≤50%) was associated with increases in intubation time, intensive care unit stay, hospital stay, and hospital mortality. Conclusion Baseline ScO2 was reflective of severity of systemic comorbidities and was predictive of clinical outcomes after major cardiovascular surgery. ScO2 correlated most significantly with BNP in an exponential manner, suggesting that BNP plays a major role in the ScO2-based outcome prediction. PMID:28704502

HPIDB 2.0: a curated database for host–pathogen interactions

PubMed Central

Ammari, Mais G.; Gresham, Cathy R.; McCarthy, Fiona M.; Nanduri, Bindu

2016-01-01

Identification and analysis of host–pathogen interactions (HPI) is essential to study infectious diseases. However, HPI data are sparse in existing molecular interaction databases, especially for agricultural host–pathogen systems. Therefore, resources that annotate, predict and display the HPI that underpin infectious diseases are critical for developing novel intervention strategies. HPIDB 2.0 (http://www.agbase.msstate.edu/hpi/main.html) is a resource for HPI data, and contains 45, 238 manually curated entries in the current release. Since the first description of the database in 2010, multiple enhancements to HPIDB data and interface services were made that are described here. Notably, HPIDB 2.0 now provides targeted biocuration of molecular interaction data. As a member of the International Molecular Exchange consortium, annotations provided by HPIDB 2.0 curators meet community standards to provide detailed contextual experimental information and facilitate data sharing. Moreover, HPIDB 2.0 provides access to rapidly available community annotations that capture minimum molecular interaction information to address immediate researcher needs for HPI network analysis. In addition to curation, HPIDB 2.0 integrates HPI from existing external sources and contains tools to infer additional HPI where annotated data are scarce. Compared to other interaction databases, our data collection approach ensures HPIDB 2.0 users access the most comprehensive HPI data from a wide range of pathogens and their hosts (594 pathogen and 70 host species, as of February 2016). Improvements also include enhanced search capacity, addition of Gene Ontology functional information, and implementation of network visualization. The changes made to HPIDB 2.0 content and interface ensure that users, especially agricultural researchers, are able to easily access and analyse high quality, comprehensive HPI data. All HPIDB 2.0 data are updated regularly, are publically available for direct download, and are disseminated to other molecular interaction resources. Database URL: http://www.agbase.msstate.edu/hpi/main.html PMID:27374121

Adolescent oligomenorrhea (age 14-19) tracks into the third decade of life (age 20-28) and predicts increased cardiovascular risk factors and metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Glueck, Charles J; Woo, Jessica G; Khoury, Philip R; Morrison, John A; Daniels, Stephen R; Wang, Ping

2015-04-01

Assess whether adolescent oligomenorrhea (age 14-19) tracks into young adulthood (age 20-28) and predicts increased cardiometabolic risk factors, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and impaired fasting glucose-type II diabetes mellitus (IFG+T2DM). Prospective study of menstrual cyclicity and its metabolic effects in 865 black and white schoolgirls from age 9 to 19, and 605 of these 865 girls from age 20 to 28. Patterns of menstrual delays (oligomenorrhea) during ages 14-19 and ages 20-28 were closely related (p<.0001). Adolescent menses delay (ages 14-19, p<.0001), mean insulin (ages 20-28, p=.0003), and self-identified polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS, p=.049) predicted ages 20-28 menses delay. Menses delays during ages 14-19 and 20-28, and, their interaction product were correlated with IFG+T2DM and MetS at ages 20-28. Waist circumference (ages 20-28, p<.0001), mean triglyceride (ages 20-28, p=.005), and the number of average menstrual cycles≥42 days (ages 20-28, p=.04) predicted IFG+T2DM (ages 20-28). MetS (ages 9-19, p<.0001), mean insulin (ages 20-28, p=.0002), the number of ≥42 day gaps between menstrual periods (ages 20-28, p=.02), and cigarette smoking at age 18-19 (p=.04) were significant explanatory variables for MetS at ages 27-28. As MetS status category changed from age 14-19 to 27-28 from best to worst: (no → no), (yes → no), (yes → yes), (no → yes), the number of women with ≥2 menses delays during ages 20-28 rose from 3% to 4% to 15% to 17%, p=.0001. MetS status change from age 9-19 to 27-28 was positively associated with mean insulin (age 20-28, p<.0001), cigarette smoking (age 24-25, p=.01) and the number of menses delays during ages 20-28 (p=.04). Menstrual patterns track from adolescence to young adulthood, and oligomenorrhea predicts MetS and IFG+T2DM. Patterns of menses delays in adolescence should be considered as a significant risk factor for future development of young adult IFG+T2DM, MetS, oligomenorrhea, and polycystic ovary syndrome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of convenience and quality on the demand for vaccination: Results from a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Guo, Na; Zhang, Guojie; Zhu, Dawei; Wang, Jian; Shi, Luwen

2017-05-15

Vaccination is an effective way to prevent infectious diseases. Most studies analysed people's vaccine decisions, but few studies have analysed the effects of convenience such as immunisation schedule and distance and the quality of vaccination service on vaccination uptake. The aim of this paper was to investigate adults' preferences for convenience and quality of vaccination service, calculate the private economic benefit from convenience (vaccination schedule and distance) and quality, and predict the uptake rate for different vaccine scenarios. In our study, we interviewed 266 adults in 2 counties of Shandong province in China. The discrete choice experiment (DCE) was employed to analyse the preference for hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination, and a mixed logit model was used to estimate respondent preferences for vaccination attributes included in the DCE. The protection rate against hepatitis B (HB), duration of protection, risk of side effects, vaccination cost, schedule, and vaccination sites were proved to influence adults' preferences for HBV vaccination. The estimated willingness to pay (WTP) for 1 dose schedule instead of 3 doses and for a third-level vaccination site instead of a first-level site was almost equal (19 RMB). However, if the protection duration of the vaccination programme changed from 5years to 20years, the adults were willing to pay 35.05 RMB, and WTP for a 99% protection rate instead of a 79% rate was 67.71 RMB. The predicted uptake rate is almost 43% for the base case of HBV vaccination. Adults made trade-offs between vaccination schedules, vaccination sites, and other characteristics of HBV vaccine. The impact of attributes of the vaccine itself, especially protection rate against HB, duration of protection, and risk of side-effects, is more dramatic than convenience and quality of vaccination service. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Within What Distance Does “Greenness” Best Predict Physical Health? A Systematic Review of Articles with GIS Buffer Analyses across the Lifespan

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Is the amount of “greenness” within a 250-m, 500-m, 1000-m or a 2000-m buffer surrounding a person’s home a good predictor of their physical health? The evidence is inconclusive. We reviewed Web of Science articles that used geographic information system buffer analyses to identify trends between physical health, greenness, and distance within which greenness is measured. Our inclusion criteria were: (1) use of buffers to estimate residential greenness; (2) statistical analyses that calculated significance of the greenness-physical health relationship; and (3) peer-reviewed articles published in English between 2007 and 2017. To capture multiple findings from a single article, we selected our unit of inquiry as the analysis, not the article. Our final sample included 260 analyses in 47 articles. All aspects of the review were in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. Analyses were independently judged as more, less, or least likely to be biased based on the inclusion of objective health measures and income/education controls. We found evidence that larger buffer sizes, up to 2000 m, better predicted physical health than smaller ones. We recommend that future analyses use nested rather than overlapping buffers to evaluate to what extent greenness not immediately around a person’s home (i.e., within 1000–2000 m) predicts physical health. PMID:28644420

The Predictive Utility of Narcissism among Children and Adolescents: Evidence for a Distinction between Adaptive and Maladaptive Narcissism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barry, Christopher T.; Frick, Paul J.; Adler, Kristy K.; Grafeman, Sarah J.

2007-01-01

We examined the predictive utility of narcissism among a community sample of children and adolescents (N=98) longitudinally. Analyses focused on the differential utility between maladaptive and adaptive narcissism for predicting later delinquency. Maladaptive narcissism significantly predicted self-reported delinquency at one-, two-, and…

Loss of histone H4K20 trimethylation predicts poor prognosis in breast cancer and is associated with invasive activity

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Introduction Loss of histone H4 lysine 20 trimethylation (H4K20me3) is associated with multiple cancers, but its role in breast tumors is unclear. In addition, the pathological effects of global reduction in H4K20me3 remain mostly unknown. Therefore, a major goal of this study was to elucidate the global H4K20me3 level in breast cancer tissue and investigate its pathological functions. Methods Levels of H4K20me3 and an associated histone modification, H3 lysine 9 trimethylation (H3K9me3), were evaluated by immunohistochemistry in a series of breast cancer tissues. Univariate and multivariate clinicopathological and survival analyses were performed. We also examined the effect of overexpression or knockdown of the histone H4K20 methyltransferases, SUV420H1 and SUV420H2, on cancer-cell invasion activity in vitro. Results H4K20me3, but not H3K9me3, was clearly reduced in breast cancer tissue. A reduced level of H4K20me3 was correlated with several aspects of clinicopathological status, including luminal subtypes, but not with HER2 expression. Multivariate analysis showed that reduced levels of H4K20me3 independently associated with lower disease-free survival. Moreover, ectopic expression of SUV420H1 and SUV420H2 in breast cancer cells suppressed cell invasiveness, whereas knockdown of SUV420H2 activated normal mammary epithelial-cell invasion in vitro. Conclusions H4K20me3 was reduced in cancerous regions of breast-tumor tissue, as in other types of tumor. Reduced H4K20me3 level can be used as an independent marker of poor prognosis in breast cancer patients. Most importantly, this study suggests that a reduced level of H4K20me3 increases the invasiveness of breast cancer cells in a HER2-independent manner. PMID:24953066

Predictive performance of three practical approaches for grapefruit juice-induced 2-fold or greater increases in AUC of concomitantly administered drugs.

PubMed

Takahashi, M; Onozawa, S; Ogawa, R; Uesawa, Y; Echizen, H

2015-02-01

Clinical pharmacists have a challenging task when answering patients' question about whether they can take specific drugs with grapefruit juice (GFJ) without risk of drug interaction. To identify the most practicable method for predicting clinically relevant changes in plasma concentrations of orally administered drugs caused by the ingestion of GFJ, we compared the predictive performance of three methods using data obtained from the literature. We undertook a systematic search of drug interactions associated with GFJ using MEDLINE and the Metabolism & Transport Drug Interaction Database (DIDB version 4.0). We considered an elevation of the area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) of 2 or greater relative to the control value [AUC ratio (AUCR) ≥ 2.0] as a clinically significant interaction. The data from 74 drugs (194 data sets) were analysed. When the reported information of CYP3A involvement in the metabolism of a drug of interest was adopted as a predictive criterion for GFJ-drug interaction, the performance assessed by positive predictive value (PPV) was low (0.26), but that assessed by negative predictive value (NPV) and sensitivity was high (1.00 for both). When the reported oral bioavailability of ≤ 0.1 was used as a criterion, the PPV improved to 0.50 with an acceptable NPV of 0.81, but sensitivity was reduced to 0.21. When the reported AUCR was ≥ 10 after co-administration of a typical CYP3A inhibitor, the corresponding values were 0.64, 0.79 and 0.19, respectively. We consider that an oral bioavailability of ≤ 0.1 or an AUCR of ≥ 10 caused by a CYP3A inhibitor of a drug of interest may be a practical prediction criterion for avoiding significant interactions with GFJ. Information about the involvement of CYP3A in their metabolism should also be taken into account for drugs with narrow therapeutic ranges. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A comparison of the socio-economic determinants of growth retardation in South African and Filipino infants.

PubMed

Jones, Laura L; Griffiths, Paula L; Adair, Linda S; Norris, Shane A; Richter, Linda M; Cameron, Noël

2008-12-01

To examine the association between household socio-economic status (SES) at birth and poor infant growth such as small for gestational age (SGA) and stunting across two different socio-cultural settings: South Africa and the Philippines. Data were from two longitudinal birth cohorts, the Birth to Twenty (Bt20) study in South Africa and the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey (CLHNS) in the Philippines. Bt20 infants (n 2293 total; reduced to 758 (SGA), 450 (stunting 1 year) and 401 (stunting 2 years)) and CLHNS infants (n 2513 total; reduced to 2161 (SGA), 1820 (stunting 1 year) and 1710 (stunting 2 years)). CLHNS infants were significantly more likely to be born SGA (20.9 v. 11.7 %) and be stunted at 1 year (32.6 v. 8.7 %) and 2 years (48.9 v. 21.1 %) compared with Bt20 infants. Logistic regression analyses showed that SES (index) was a significant predictor of stunting at 1 and 2 years of age in the CLHNS cohort. SES (index or individual variables) was not a significant predictor of SGA in either cohort, or of stunting in the Bt20 cohort. Maternal education, ownership of a television and toilet facilities were all independent predictors of stunting in the CLHNS cohort. The social and economic milieu within the Philippines appears to place CLHNS infants at greater risk of being born SGA and being stunted compared with Bt20 infants. The present research highlights the importance of investigating the individual SES variables that predict infantile growth faltering, to identify the key areas for context-specific policy development and intervention.

A Window into the Intoxicated Mind? Speech as an Index of Psychoactive Drug Effects

PubMed Central

Bedi, Gillinder; Cecchi, Guillermo A; Slezak, Diego F; Carrillo, Facundo; Sigman, Mariano; de Wit, Harriet

2014-01-01

Abused drugs can profoundly alter mental states in ways that may motivate drug use. These effects are usually assessed with self-report, an approach that is vulnerable to biases. Analyzing speech during intoxication may present a more direct, objective measure, offering a unique ‘window' into the mind. Here, we employed computational analyses of speech semantic and topological structure after ±3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA; ‘ecstasy') and methamphetamine in 13 ecstasy users. In 4 sessions, participants completed a 10-min speech task after MDMA (0.75 and 1.5 mg/kg), methamphetamine (20 mg), or placebo. Latent Semantic Analyses identified the semantic proximity between speech content and concepts relevant to drug effects. Graph-based analyses identified topological speech characteristics. Group-level drug effects on semantic distances and topology were assessed. Machine-learning analyses (with leave-one-out cross-validation) assessed whether speech characteristics could predict drug condition in the individual subject. Speech after MDMA (1.5 mg/kg) had greater semantic proximity than placebo to the concepts friend, support, intimacy, and rapport. Speech on MDMA (0.75 mg/kg) had greater proximity to empathy than placebo. Conversely, speech on methamphetamine was further from compassion than placebo. Classifiers discriminated between MDMA (1.5 mg/kg) and placebo with 88% accuracy, and MDMA (1.5 mg/kg) and methamphetamine with 84% accuracy. For the two MDMA doses, the classifier performed at chance. These data suggest that automated semantic speech analyses can capture subtle alterations in mental state, accurately discriminating between drugs. The findings also illustrate the potential for automated speech-based approaches to characterize clinically relevant alterations to mental state, including those occurring in psychiatric illness. PMID:24694926

A window into the intoxicated mind? Speech as an index of psychoactive drug effects.

PubMed

Bedi, Gillinder; Cecchi, Guillermo A; Slezak, Diego F; Carrillo, Facundo; Sigman, Mariano; de Wit, Harriet

2014-09-01

Abused drugs can profoundly alter mental states in ways that may motivate drug use. These effects are usually assessed with self-report, an approach that is vulnerable to biases. Analyzing speech during intoxication may present a more direct, objective measure, offering a unique 'window' into the mind. Here, we employed computational analyses of speech semantic and topological structure after ±3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA; 'ecstasy') and methamphetamine in 13 ecstasy users. In 4 sessions, participants completed a 10-min speech task after MDMA (0.75 and 1.5 mg/kg), methamphetamine (20 mg), or placebo. Latent Semantic Analyses identified the semantic proximity between speech content and concepts relevant to drug effects. Graph-based analyses identified topological speech characteristics. Group-level drug effects on semantic distances and topology were assessed. Machine-learning analyses (with leave-one-out cross-validation) assessed whether speech characteristics could predict drug condition in the individual subject. Speech after MDMA (1.5 mg/kg) had greater semantic proximity than placebo to the concepts friend, support, intimacy, and rapport. Speech on MDMA (0.75 mg/kg) had greater proximity to empathy than placebo. Conversely, speech on methamphetamine was further from compassion than placebo. Classifiers discriminated between MDMA (1.5 mg/kg) and placebo with 88% accuracy, and MDMA (1.5 mg/kg) and methamphetamine with 84% accuracy. For the two MDMA doses, the classifier performed at chance. These data suggest that automated semantic speech analyses can capture subtle alterations in mental state, accurately discriminating between drugs. The findings also illustrate the potential for automated speech-based approaches to characterize clinically relevant alterations to mental state, including those occurring in psychiatric illness.

Response to novelty as a predictor of cocaine sensitization and conditioning in rats: a correlational analysis.

PubMed

Carey, Robert J; DePalma, Gail; Damianopoulos, Ernest

2003-07-01

An animal's response to novelty has been suggested to be a predictor of its response to drugs of abuse. The possible relationship between an individual's behavioral response to novelty and its subsequent behavioral response to cocaine has not been subjected to a detailed correlational analysis. To use a repeated cocaine treatment protocol to induce cocaine sensitization and conditioned cocaine locomotor stimulant effects and to assess the relationship of these effects to pre-cocaine locomotor behavior in a novel environment. In two separate experiments, rats were given a 20-min test in a novel open-field environment. Subsequently, the rats were given a series of additional tests in conjunction with either saline or cocaine (10 mg/kg) treatments to induce cocaine sensitization and conditioned effects. The repeated cocaine treatments induced cocaine behavioral sensitization and conditioned effects. Correlational analyses showed that the initial 20-min novel environment test proved to be a strong predictor of an animal's subsequent saline activity level but did not predict the rats' behavioral acute and sensitized response to cocaine. When change in activity was used as the dependent variable, initial activity level was reliably negatively correlated with activity changes on cocaine tests as well as cocaine conditioning tests. The negative correlation between initial activity in a novel environment and the change in activity induced by cocaine indicates that low responders to environmental novelty tend to have the strongest response to cocaine. These results appear consistent with the classic initial value and response rate dependent analyses of stimulant drug effects.

Degree Of Diminution In Vagal-Cardiac Activity Predicts Sudden Death In Familial Dysautonomia When Resting Tachycardia Is Absent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlegel, T. T.; Marthol, H.; Bucchner, S.; Tutaj, M.; Berlin, D.; Axelrod, F. B.; Hilz, M. J.

2004-01-01

Patients with familial dysautonomia (FD) have an increased risk of sudden death, but sensitive and specific predictors of sudden death in FD are lacking. Methods. We recorded 10-min resting high-fidelity 12-lead ECGs in 14 FD patients and in 14 age/gender-matched healthy subjects and studied 25+ different heart rate variability (HRV) indices for their ability to predict sudden death in the FD patients. Indices studied included those from 4 "nonlinear" HRV techniques (detrended fluctuation analysis, approximate entropy, correlation dimension, and PoincarC analyses). The predictive value of PR, QRS, QTc and JTc intervals, QT dispersion (QTd), beat-to-beat QT and PR interval variability indices (QTVI and PRVI) and 12- lead high frequency QRS ECG (150-250 Hz) were also studied. FD patients and controls (C) differed (Pless than 0.0l) with respect to 20+ of the HRV indices (FD less than C) and with respect to QTVI and PRVI (FDBC) and HF QRS- related root mean squared voltages (FDBC) and reduced amplitude zone counts (FD less than C). They differed less with respect to PR intervals (FD less than C) and JTc intervals (FD greater than C) (P less than 0.05 for both) and did not differ at all with respect to QRS and QTc intervals and to QTd. Within 12 months after study, 2 of the 14 patients succumbed to sudden cardiac arrest. The best predictor of sudden death was the degree of diminution in HRV vagal-cardiac (parasympathetic) parameters such as RMSSD, the SDl of Poincare plots, and HF spectral power. Excluding the two FD patients who had resting tachycardia (HR greater than 100, which confounds traditional HRV analyses), the following criteria were independently 100% sensitive and 100% specific for predicting sudden death in the remaining 12 FD patients during spontaneous breathing: RMSSD less than 13 ms and/or PoincarC SD1 less than 9 ms. In FD patients without supine tachycardia, the degree of diminution in parasympathetic HRV parameters (by high-fidelity ECG) predicts incipient death.

RAID v2.0: an updated resource of RNA-associated interactions across organisms

PubMed Central

Yi, Ying; Zhao, Yue; Li, Chunhua; Zhang, Lin; Huang, Huiying; Li, Yana; Liu, Lanlan; Hou, Ping; Cui, Tianyu; Tan, Puwen; Hu, Yongfei; Zhang, Ting; Huang, Yan; Li, Xiaobo; Yu, Jia; Wang, Dong

2017-01-01

With the development of biotechnologies and computational prediction algorithms, the number of experimental and computational prediction RNA-associated interactions has grown rapidly in recent years. However, diverse RNA-associated interactions are scattered over a wide variety of resources and organisms, whereas a fully comprehensive view of diverse RNA-associated interactions is still not available for any species. Hence, we have updated the RAID database to version 2.0 (RAID v2.0, www.rna-society.org/raid/) by integrating experimental and computational prediction interactions from manually reading literature and other database resources under one common framework. The new developments in RAID v2.0 include (i) over 850-fold RNA-associated interactions, an enhancement compared to the previous version; (ii) numerous resources integrated with experimental or computational prediction evidence for each RNA-associated interaction; (iii) a reliability assessment for each RNA-associated interaction based on an integrative confidence score; and (iv) an increase of species coverage to 60. Consequently, RAID v2.0 recruits more than 5.27 million RNA-associated interactions, including more than 4 million RNA–RNA interactions and more than 1.2 million RNA–protein interactions, referring to nearly 130 000 RNA/protein symbols across 60 species. PMID:27899615

Incidence of Hepatitis C Infection among Prisoners by Routine Laboratory Values during a 20-Year Period

PubMed Central

Marco, Andrés; Gallego, Carlos; Caylà, Joan A.

2014-01-01

Background To estimate the incidence of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the predictive factors through repeated routine laboratory analyses. Methods An observational cohort study was carried out in Quatre Camins Prison, Barcelona. The study included subjects with an initial negative HCV result and routine laboratory analyses containing HCV serology from 1992 to 2011. The incidence of infection was calculated for the study population and for sub-groups by 100 person-years of follow-up (100 py). The predictive factors were determined through Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox regression. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Results A total of 2,377 prisoners were included with a median follow-up time of 1,540.9 days per patient. Among the total population, 117 HCV seroconversions were detected (incidence of 1.17/100 py). The incidence was higher between 1992 and 1995 (2.57/100 py), among cases with HIV co-infection (8.34/100 py) and among intravenous drug users (IDU) without methadone treatment (MT) during follow-up (6.66/100 py). The incidence rate of HCV seroconversion among cases with a history of IDU and current MT was 1.35/100 py, which is close to that of the total study population. The following variables had a positive predictive value for HCV infection: IDU (p<0.001; HR = 7,30; CI: 4.83–11.04), Spanish ethnicity (p = 0.009; HR = 2,03; CI: 1.93–3.44) and HIV infection (p = 0.015; HR = 1.97; CI: 1.14–3.39). Conclusion The incidence of HCV infection among prisoners was higher during the first part of the study and among IDU during the entire study period. Preventative programs should be directed toward this sub-group of the prison population. PMID:24587394

Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

PubMed

Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

2018-01-03

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P < 0.001), whereas the observed morbidity of Centre 3 was higher than the predicted morbidity (observed 41.1% vs predicted 24.3%, P < 0.001). Centre 1 had higher observed mortality when compared with the predicted mortality (3.6% vs 2.1%, P = 0.005), whereas Centre 2 had an observed mortality rate significantly lower than the predicted mortality rate (1.2% vs 2.5%, P = 0.013). Centre 3 had an observed mortality rate in line with the predicted mortality rate (observed 1.4% vs predicted 2.4%, P = 0.17). The observed mortality rates in the patients with major complications were 30.8% in Centre 1 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.8%, P < 0.001), 8.2% in Centre 2 (versus predicted mortality rate 4.1%, P = 0.030) and 9.0% in Centre 3 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.5%, P = 0.014). The Eurolung models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Utilization of waste heat in trucks for increased fuel economy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leising, C. J.; Purohit, G. P.; Degrey, S. P.; Finegold, J. G.

1978-01-01

The waste heat utilization concepts include preheating, regeneration, turbocharging, turbocompounding, and Rankine engine compounding. Predictions are based on fuel-air cycle analyses, computer simulation, and engine test data. All options are evaluated in terms of maximum theoretical improvements, but the Diesel and adiabatic Diesel are also compared on the basis of maximum expected improvement and expected improvement over a driving cycle. The study indicates that Diesels should be turbocharged and aftercooled to the maximum possible level. The results reveal that Diesel driving cycle performance can be increased by 20% through increased turbocharging, turbocompounding, and Rankine engine compounding. The Rankine engine compounding provides about three times as much improvement as turbocompounding but also costs about three times as much. Performance for either can be approximately doubled if applied to an adiabatic Diesel.

Effect of ambient temperature storage on potable water coliform population estimations.

PubMed Central

Standridge, J H; Delfino, J J

1983-01-01

The effect of the length of time between sampling potable water and performing coliform analyses has been a long-standing controversial issue in environmental microbiology. The issue is of practical importance since reducing the sample-to-analysis time may substantially increase costs for water analysis programs. Randomly selected samples (from those routinely collected throughout the State of Wisconsin) were analyzed for total coliforms after being held at room temperature (20 +/- 2 degrees C) for 24 and 48 h. Differences in results for the two holding times were compared with differences predicted by probability calculations. The study showed that storage of the potable water for up to 48 h had little effect on the public health significance of most samples containing more than two coliforms per 100 ml. PMID:6651296

Analytical Predictions of Thermal Stress in the Stardust PICA Heatshield Under Reentry Flight Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squire, Thomas; Milos, Frank; Agrawal, Parul

2009-01-01

We performed finite element analyses on a model of the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield from the Stardust sample return capsule (SRC) to predict the thermal stresses in the PICA material during reentry. The heatshield on the Stardust SRC was a 0.83 m sphere cone, fabricated from a single piece of 5.82 cm-thick PICA. The heatshield performed successfully during Earth reentry of the SRC in January 2006. Material response analyses of the full, axisymmetric PICA heatshield were run using the Two-Dimensional Implicit Ablation, Pyrolysis, and Thermal Response Program (TITAN). Peak surface temperatures were predicted to be 3385K, while the temperature at the PICA backface remained at the estimated initial cold-soak temperature of 278K. Surface recession and temperature distribution results from TITAN, at several points in the reentry trajectory, were mapped onto an axisymmetric finite element model of the heatshield. We used the finite element model to predict the thermal stresses in the PICA from differential thermal expansion. The predicted peak compressive stress in the PICA heatshield was 1.38 MPa. Although this level of stress exceeded the chosen design limit for compressive stresses in PICA tiles for the design of the Orion crew exploration vehicle heatshield, the Stardust heatshield exhibited no obvious mechanical failures from thermal stress. The analyses of the Stardust heatshield were used to assess and adjust the level of conservatism in the finite element analyses in support of the Orion heatshield design.

Thyroid V30 Predicts Radiation-Induced Hypothyroidism in Patients Treated With Sequential Chemo-Radiotherapy for Hodgkin's Lymphoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cella, Laura; Department of Diagnostic Imaging and Radiation Oncology, Federico II University School of Medicine, Naples; Conson, Manuel

Purpose: Hypothyroidism (HT) is a frequent late side effect of Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) therapy. The purpose of this study is to determine dose-volume constraints that correlate with functional impairment of the thyroid gland in HL patients treated with three-dimensional radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: A total of 61 consecutive patients undergoing antiblastic chemotherapy and involved field radiation treatment (median dose, 32 Gy; range, 30-36 Gy) for HL were retrospectively considered. Their median age was 28 years (range, 14-70 years). Blood levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free triiodo-thyronine (FT3), free thyroxine (FT4), and thyroglobulin antibody (ATG) were recorded basally and at differentmore » times after the end of therapy. For the thyroid gland, normal tissue complication probability (NTCP), dosimetric parameters, and the percentage of thyroid volume exceeding 10, 20, and 30 Gy (V10, V20, and V30) were calculated in all patients. To evaluate clinical and dosimetric factors possibly associated with HT, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: Eight of 61 (13.1%) patients had HT before treatment and were excluded from further evaluation. At a median follow-up of 32 months (range, 6-99 months), 41.5% (22/53) of patients developed HT after treatment. Univariate analyses showed that all dosimetric factors were associated with HT (p < 0.05). On multivariate analysis, the thyroid V30 value was the single independent predictor associated with HT (p = 0.001). This parameter divided the patients into low- vs. high-risk groups: if V30 was {<=} 62.5%, the risk of developing HT was 11.5%, and if V30 was >62.5%, the risk was 70.8% (p < 0.0001). A Cox regression curve stratified by two levels of V30 value was created (odds ratio, 12.6). Conclusions: The thyroid V30 predicts the risk of developing HT after sequential chemo-radiotherapy and defines a useful constraint to consider for more accurate HL treatment planning.« less

Effect of counting chamber depth on the accuracy of lensless microscopy for the assessment of boar sperm motility.

PubMed

Soler, Carles; Picazo-Bueno, José Á; Micó, Vicente; Valverde, Anthony; Bompart, Daznia; Blasco, Francisco J; Álvarez, Juan G; García-Molina, Almudena

2018-05-04

Sperm motility is one of the most significant parameters in the prediction of male fertility. Until now, both motility analysis using an optical microscope and computer-aided sperm analysis (CASA-Mot) entailed the use of counting chambers with a depth to 20µm. Chamber depth significantly affects the intrinsic sperm movement, leading to an artificial motility pattern. For the first time, laser microscopy offers the possibility of avoiding this interference with sperm movement. The aims of the present study were to determine the different motility patterns observed in chambers with depths of 10, 20 and 100µm using a new holographic approach and to compare the results obtained in the 20-µm chamber with those of the laser and optical CASA-Mot systems. The ISAS®3D-Track results showed that values for curvilinear velocity (VCL), straight line velocity, wobble and beat cross frequency were higher for the 100-µm chambers than for the 10- and 20-µm chambers. Only VCL showed a positive correlation between chambers. In addition, Bayesian analysis confirmed that the kinematic parameters observed with the 100-µm chamber were significantly different to those obtained using chambers with depths of 10 and 20µm. When an optical analyser CASA-Mot system was used, all kinematic parameters, except VCL, were higher with ISAS®3D-Track, but were not relevant after Bayesian analysis. Finally, almost three different three-dimensional motility patterns were recognised. In conclusion, the use of the ISAS®3D-Track allows for the analysis of the natural three-dimensional pattern of sperm movement.

Angular Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measure at z=2.225 from the SDSS quasar survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Carvalho, E.; Bernui, A.; Carvalho, G. C.; Novaes, C. P.; Xavier, H. S.

2018-04-01

Following a quasi model-independent approach we measure the transversal BAO mode at high redshift using the two-point angular correlation function (2PACF). The analyses done here are only possible now with the quasar catalogue from the twelfth data release (DR12Q) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, because it is spatially dense enough to allow the measurement of the angular BAO signature with moderate statistical significance and acceptable precision. Our analyses with quasars in the redshift interval z in [2.20,2.25] produce the angular BAO scale θBAO = 1.77° ± 0.31° with a statistical significance of 2.12 σ (i.e., 97% confidence level), calculated through a likelihood analysis performed using the theoretical covariance matrix sourced by the analytical power spectra expected in the ΛCDM concordance model. Additionally, we show that the BAO signal is robust—although with less statistical significance—under diverse bin-size choices and under small displacements of the quasars' angular coordinates. Finally, we also performed cosmological parameter analyses comparing the θBAO predictions for wCDM and w(a)CDM models with angular BAO data available in the literature, including the measurement obtained here, jointly with CMB data. The constraints on the parameters ΩM, w0 and wa are in excellent agreement with the ΛCDM concordance model.

An Interspecies Comparative Analysis of the Predicted Secretomes of the Necrotrophic Plant Pathogens Sclerotinia sclerotiorum and Botrytis cinerea

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Phytopathogenic fungi form intimate associations with host plant species and cause disease. To be successful, fungal pathogens communicate with a susceptible host through the secretion of proteinaceous effectors, hydrolytic enzymes and metabolites. Sclerotinia sclerotiorum and Botrytis cinerea are economically important necrotrophic fungal pathogens that cause disease on numerous crop species. Here, a powerful bioinformatics pipeline was used to predict the refined S. sclerotiorum and B. cinerea secretomes, identifying 432 and 499 proteins respectively. Analyses focusing on S. sclerotiorum revealed that 16% of the secretome encoding genes resided in small, sequence heterogeneous, gene clusters that were distributed over 13 of the 16 predicted chromosomes. Functional analyses highlighted the importance of plant cell hydrolysis, oxidation-reduction processes and the redox state to the S. sclerotiorum and B. cinerea secretomes and potentially host infection. Only 8% of the predicted proteins were distinct between the two secretomes. In contrast to S. sclerotiorum, the B. cinerea secretome lacked CFEM- or LysM-containing proteins. The 115 fungal and oomycete genome comparison identified 30 proteins specific to S. sclerotiorum and B. cinerea, plus 11 proteins specific to S. sclerotiorum and 32 proteins specific to B. cinerea. Expressed sequence tag (EST) and proteomic analyses showed that 246 S. sclerotiorum secretome encoding genes had EST support, including 101 which were only expressed in vitro and 49 which were only expressed in planta, whilst 42 predicted proteins were experimentally proven to be secreted. These detailed in silico analyses of two important necrotrophic pathogens will permit informed choices to be made when candidate effector proteins are selected for function analyses in planta. PMID:26107498

Statistics for the Relative Detectability of Chemicals in Weak Gaseous Plumes in LWIR Hyperspectral Imagery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Metoyer, Candace N.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Tardiff, Mark F.

2008-10-30

The detection and identification of weak gaseous plumes using thermal imaging data is complicated by many factors. These include variability due to atmosphere, ground and plume temperature, and background clutter. This paper presents an analysis of one formulation of the physics-based model that describes the at-sensor observed radiance. The motivating question for the analyses performed in this paper is as follows. Given a set of backgrounds, is there a way to predict the background over which the probability of detecting a given chemical will be the highest? Two statistics were developed to address this question. These statistics incorporate data frommore » the long-wave infrared band to predict the background over which chemical detectability will be the highest. These statistics can be computed prior to data collection. As a preliminary exploration into the predictive ability of these statistics, analyses were performed on synthetic hyperspectral images. Each image contained one chemical (either carbon tetrachloride or ammonia) spread across six distinct background types. The statistics were used to generate predictions for the background ranks. Then, the predicted ranks were compared to the empirical ranks obtained from the analyses of the synthetic images. For the simplified images under consideration, the predicted and empirical ranks showed a promising amount of agreement. One statistic accurately predicted the best and worst background for detection in all of the images. Future work may include explorations of more complicated plume ingredients, background types, and noise structures.« less

Understanding the transmission of wildfire risk on a fire prone landscape - A Case study from Central Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, Alan; Barros, Ana; Day, Michelle; Preisler, Haiganoush; Evers, Cody

2015-04-01

We develop the idea of risk transmission from large wildfires and apply network analyses to understand its importance within the 3.2 million ha Fire-People-Forest study area in central Oregon, US. Historic wildfires within the study and elsewhere in the western US frequently burn over long distances (e.g., 20-50 km) through highly fragmented landscapes with respect to ownership, fuels, management intensity, population density, and ecological conditions. The collective arrangement of fuel loadings in concert with weather and suppression efforts ultimately determines containment and the resulting fire perimeter. While spatial interactions among land parcels in terms of fire spread and intensity have been frequently noted by fire managers, quantifying risk and exposure transmission is not well understood. In this paper we used simulation modeling to quantify wildfire transmission and built a transmission network among and within land owners and communities within the study area. The results suggested that 84% of the predicted area burned within the 25 communities in the study area was from simulated fires that ignited on federal lands. The wildland urban interface surrounding the communities was predicted to burn at a rate of 2 % per year, with 57% of the area burned from fires ignited on federal lands. The node degree for communities indicated that simulated fires originated on about 6 different landowners. Network analyses in general revealed independent variation in transmitted fire among landowners in terms of both node degree (diversity of landowners exchanging fire) and transmitted fire, indicating that both the spatial grain of land ownership and wildfire topology contribute to transmission among land parcels. We discuss how network analyses of wildfire transmission can inform fire management goals for creating fire adapted communities, conserving biodiversity, and resolving competing demands for fire-prone ecosystem services. We also discuss how biophysical fire networks can potentially be coupled with social fire networks to improve wildfire mitigation planning.

Comparison between Frailty Index of Deficit Accumulation and Phenotypic Model to Predict Risk of Falls: Data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) Hamilton Cohort

PubMed Central

Thabane, Lehana; Ioannidis, George; Kennedy, Courtney; Papaioannou, Alexandra

2015-01-01

Objectives To compare the predictive accuracy of the frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation and the phenotypic frailty (PF) model in predicting risks of future falls, fractures and death in women aged ≥55 years. Methods Based on the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort (n = 3,985), we compared the predictive accuracy of the FI and PF in risks of falls, fractures and death using three strategies: (1) investigated the relationship with adverse health outcomes by increasing per one-fifth (i.e., 20%) of the FI and PF; (2) trichotomized the FI based on the overlap in the density distribution of the FI by the three groups (robust, pre-frail and frail) which were defined by the PF; (3) categorized the women according to a predicted probability function of falls during the third year of follow-up predicted by the FI. Logistic regression models were used for falls and death, while survival analyses were conducted for fractures. Results The FI and PF agreed with each other at a good level of consensus (correlation coefficients ≥ 0.56) in all the three strategies. Both the FI and PF approaches predicted adverse health outcomes significantly. The FI quantified the risks of future falls, fractures and death more precisely than the PF. Both the FI and PF discriminated risks of adverse outcomes in multivariable models with acceptable and comparable area under the curve (AUCs) for falls (AUCs ≥ 0.68) and death (AUCs ≥ 0.79), and c-indices for fractures (c-indices ≥ 0.69) respectively. Conclusions The FI is comparable with the PF in predicting risks of adverse health outcomes. These findings may indicate the flexibility in the choice of frailty model for the elderly in the population-based settings. PMID:25764521

Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and phenotypic model to predict risk of falls: data from the global longitudinal study of osteoporosis in women (GLOW) Hamilton cohort.

PubMed

Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Ioannidis, George; Kennedy, Courtney; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Adachi, Jonathan D

2015-01-01

To compare the predictive accuracy of the frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation and the phenotypic frailty (PF) model in predicting risks of future falls, fractures and death in women aged ≥55 years. Based on the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort (n = 3,985), we compared the predictive accuracy of the FI and PF in risks of falls, fractures and death using three strategies: (1) investigated the relationship with adverse health outcomes by increasing per one-fifth (i.e., 20%) of the FI and PF; (2) trichotomized the FI based on the overlap in the density distribution of the FI by the three groups (robust, pre-frail and frail) which were defined by the PF; (3) categorized the women according to a predicted probability function of falls during the third year of follow-up predicted by the FI. Logistic regression models were used for falls and death, while survival analyses were conducted for fractures. The FI and PF agreed with each other at a good level of consensus (correlation coefficients ≥ 0.56) in all the three strategies. Both the FI and PF approaches predicted adverse health outcomes significantly. The FI quantified the risks of future falls, fractures and death more precisely than the PF. Both the FI and PF discriminated risks of adverse outcomes in multivariable models with acceptable and comparable area under the curve (AUCs) for falls (AUCs ≥ 0.68) and death (AUCs ≥ 0.79), and c-indices for fractures (c-indices ≥ 0.69) respectively. The FI is comparable with the PF in predicting risks of adverse health outcomes. These findings may indicate the flexibility in the choice of frailty model for the elderly in the population-based settings.

The influence of genetic and environmental factors in estimations of current body size, desired body size, and body dissatisfaction.

PubMed

Wade, T D; Bulik, C M; Heath, A C; Martin, N G; Eaves, L J

2001-08-01

The objective was to investigate the genetic epidemiology of figural stimuli. Standard figural stimuli were available from 5,325 complete twin pairs: 1,751 (32.9%) were monozygotic females, 1,068 (20.1%) were dizygotic females, 752 (14.1%) were monozygotic males, 495 (9.3%) were dizygotic males, and 1,259 (23.6%) were dizygotic male-female pairs. Univariate twin analyses were used to examine the influences on the individual variation in current body size and ideal body size. These data were analysed separately for men and women in each of five age groups. A factorial analysis of variance, with polychoric correlations between twin pairs as the dependent variable, and age, sex, zygosity, and the three interaction terms (age x sex, age x zygosity, sex x zygosity) as independent variables, was used to examine trends across the whole data set. Results showed genetic influences had the largest impact on the individual variation in current body size measures, whereas non-shared environmental influences were associated with the majority of individual variation in ideal body size. There was a significant main effect of zygosity (heritability) in predicting polychoric correlations for current body size and body dissatisfaction. There was a significant main effect of gender and zygosity in predicting ideal body size, with a gender x zygosity interaction. In common with BMI, heritability is important in influencing the estimation of current body size. Selection of desired body size for both men and women is more strongly influenced by environmental factors.

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season QPF be Improved?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Darden, Chris; Dembek, Scott

2003-01-01

It is well known that numerical warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts lack significant skill for numerous reasons. Some are related to the model--it may lack physical processes required to realistically simulate convection or the numerical algorithms and dynamics employed may not be adequate. Others are related to initialization-mesoscale features play an important role in convective initialization and atmospheric observation systems are incapable of properly depicting the three-dimensional stability structure at the mesoscale. The purpose of this study is to determine if a mesoscale model initialized with a diabatic initialization scheme can improve short-term (0 to 12h) warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory is used to diabatically initialize the Pennsylvania State University/National center for Atmospheric Research (PSUNCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The SPORT Center runs LAPS operationally on an hourly cycle to produce analyses on a 15 km covering the eastern 2/3 of the United States. The 20 km National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Rapid Update Cycle analyses are used for the background fields. Standard observational data are acquired from MADIS with GOES/CRAFT Nexrad data acquired from in-house feeds. The MM5 is configured on a 140 x 140 12 km grid centered on Huntsville Alabama. Preliminary results indicate that MM5 runs initialized with LAPS produce improved 6 and 12h QPF threat scores compared with those initialized with the NCEP RUC.

The Predictive Value of the Maximal Liver Function Capacity Test for the Isolation of Primary Human Hepatocytes.

PubMed

Major, Rebeka D; Kluge, Martin; Jara, Maximilian; Nösser, Maximilian; Horner, Rosa; Gassner, Joseph; Struecker, Benjamin; Tang, Peter; Lippert, Steffen; Reutzel-Selke, Anja; Geisel, Dominik; Denecke, Timm; Stockmann, Martin; Pratschke, Johann; Sauer, Igor M; Raschzok, Nathanael

2018-03-01

The need for primary human hepatocytes is constantly growing for basic research, as well as for therapeutic applications. However, the isolation outcome strongly depends on the quality of liver tissue, and we are still lacking a preoperative test that allows the prediction of the hepatocyte isolation outcome. In this study, we evaluated the "maximal liver function capacity test" (LiMAx) as predictive test for the quantitative and qualitative outcome of hepatocyte isolation. This test is already used in clinical routine to measure preoperative and to predict postoperative liver function. The patient's preoperative mean LiMAx was obtained from the patient records, and preoperative computed tomography and magnetic resonance images were used to calculate the whole liver volume to adjust the mean LiMAx. The outcome parameters of the hepatocyte isolation procedures were analyzed in correlation with the adjusted mean LiMAx. Primary human hepatocytes were isolated from partial hepatectomies (n = 64). From these 64 hepatectomies we included 48 to our study and correlated their isolation outcome parameters with volume corrected LiMAx values. From a total of 11 hepatocyte isolation procedures, metabolic parameters (albumin, urea, and aspartate aminotransferase or AST) were assessed during the hepatocyte cultivation period of 5 days. The volume adjusted mean LiMAx showed a significant positive correlation with the total cell yield (p = 0.049; r = 0.242; n = 48). The correlations of volume adjusted LiMAx values with viable cell yield and cell viability did not reach statistical significance. To create a more homogenous study group regarding tumor entities, subgroup analyses were performed. A subgroup analysis of isolations from patients with colorectal metastasis revealed a significant correlation between volume adjusted mean LiMAx and total cell yield (p = 0.012; r = 0.488; n = 21) and viable cell yield (p = 0.034; r = 0.405; n = 21), whereas a subgroup analysis of isolations of patients with carcinoma of the biliary tree showed significant correlations of volume adjusted mean LiMAx with cell viability (r = 0.387; p = 0.046; n = 20) and lacked significant correlations with total cell yield (r = -0.060; p = 0.401; n = 20) and viable cell yield (r = 0.012; p = 0.480; n = 20). The volume-adjusted mean LiMAx did not show a significant correlation with any of the metabolic parameters. In conclusion, the LiMAx test might be a useful tool to predict the quantitative outcome of hepatocyte isolation, as long as underlying liver disease is taken into consideration.

Fetal MRI lung volumes are predictive of perinatal outcomes in fetuses with congenital lung masses.

PubMed

Zamora, Irving J; Sheikh, Fariha; Cassady, Christopher I; Olutoye, Oluyinka O; Mehollin-Ray, Amy R; Ruano, Rodrigo; Lee, Timothy C; Welty, Stephen E; Belfort, Michael A; Ethun, Cecilia G; Kim, Michael E; Cass, Darrell L

2014-06-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate fetal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as a modality for predicting perinatal outcomes and lung-related morbidity in fetuses with congenital lung masses (CLM). The records of all patients treated for CLM from 2002 to 2012 were reviewed retrospectively. Fetal MRI-derived lung mass volume ratio (LMVR), observed/expected normal fetal lung volume (O/E-NFLV), and lesion-to-lung volume ratio (LLV) were calculated. Multivariate regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses were applied to determine the predictive accuracy of prenatal imaging. Of 128 fetuses with CLM, 93% (n=118) survived. MRI data were available for 113 fetuses. In early gestation (<26weeks), MRI measurements of LMVR and LLV correlated with risk of fetal hydrops, mortality, and/or need for fetal intervention. In later gestation (>26weeks), LMVR, LLV, and O/E-NFLV correlated with neonatal respiratory distress, intubation, NICU admission and need for neonatal surgery. On multivariate regression, LMVR was the strongest predictor for development of fetal hydrops (OR: 6.97, 1.58-30.84; p=0.01) and neonatal respiratory distress (OR: 12.38, 3.52-43.61; p≤0.001). An LMVR >2.0 predicted worse perinatal outcome with 83% sensitivity and 99% specificity (AUC=0.94; p<0.001). Fetal MRI volumetric measurements of lung masses and residual normal lung are predictive of perinatal outcomes in fetuses with CLM. These data may assist in perinatal risk stratification, counseling, and resource utilization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Feeding practices and child weight: is the association bidirectional in preschool children?

PubMed

Jansen, Pauline W; Tharner, Anne; van der Ende, Jan; Wake, Melissa; Raat, Hein; Hofman, Albert; Verhulst, Frank C; van Ijzendoorn, Marinus H; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Tiemeier, Henning

2014-11-01

Parental feeding practices are associated with children's body mass index (BMI). It has been generally assumed that parental feeding determines children's eating behaviors and weight gain, but feeding practices could equally be a parent's response to child weight. In longitudinal analyses, we assessed the directionality in the relation between selected controlling feeding practices and BMI in early childhood. Participants were 4166 children from the population-based Generation R Study. BMI was measured at ages 2 and 6 y. With the use of the Child Feeding Questionnaire, parents reported on restriction, monitoring, and pressure to eat (child age: 4 y). BMI and feeding-behavior scales were transformed to SD scores. With the use of linear regression analyses, there was an indication that a higher BMI at age 2 y predicted higher levels of parental restriction (adjusted β = 0.07; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.10) and lower levels of pressure to eat (adjusted β = -0.20; 95% CI: -0.23, -0.17) 2 y later. Restriction at age 4 y positively predicted child BMI at 6 y of age, although this association attenuated to statistical nonsignificance after accounting for BMI at age 4 y (β = 0.01; 95% CI: -0.01, 0.03). Pressure to eat predicted lower BMI independently of BMI at age 4 y (β = -0.02; 95% CI: -0.04, -0.01). For both restriction and pressure to eat, the relation from BMI to parenting was stronger than the reverse (Wald's test for comparison: P = 0.03 and < 0.001, respectively). Monitoring predicted a lower child BMI, but this relation was explained by confounding factors. Although the feeding-BMI relation is bidirectional, the main direction of observed effects suggests that parents tend to adapt their controlling feeding practices in response to their child's BMI rather than the reverse. Therefore, some components of current programs aimed at preventing or treating unhealthy child weight may need to be carefully scrutinized, especially those targeting parental food-related restriction and pressure to eat. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza

PubMed Central

Kilpatrick, A. Marm; Chmura, Aleksei A.; Gibbons, David W.; Fleischer, Robert C.; Marra, Peter P.; Daszak, Peter

2006-01-01

The spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into Asia, Europe, and Africa has resulted in enormous impacts on the poultry industry and presents an important threat to human health. The pathways by which the virus has and will spread between countries have been debated extensively, but have yet to be analyzed comprehensively and quantitatively. We integrated data on phylogenetic relationships of virus isolates, migratory bird movements, and trade in poultry and wild birds to determine the pathway for 52 individual introduction events into countries and predict future spread. We show that 9 of 21 of H5N1 introductions to countries in Asia were most likely through poultry, and 3 of 21 were most likely through migrating birds. In contrast, spread to most (20/23) countries in Europe was most likely through migratory birds. Spread in Africa was likely partly by poultry (2/8 introductions) and partly by migrating birds (3/8). Our analyses predict that H5N1 is more likely to be introduced into the Western Hemisphere through infected poultry and into the mainland United States by subsequent movement of migrating birds from neighboring countries, rather than from eastern Siberia. These results highlight the potential synergism between trade and wild animal movement in the emergence and pandemic spread of pathogens and demonstrate the value of predictive models for disease control. PMID:17158217

Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

2015-12-01

The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean analysis, although the best performer varies with lead-time and starting calendar month.

Young adulthood cognitive ability predicts statin adherence in middle-aged men after first myocardial infarction: A Swedish National Registry study

PubMed Central

Lissåker, Claudia; Madison, Guy; Held, Claes; Olsson, Erik

2017-01-01

Background Cognitive ability (CA) is positively related to later health, health literacy, health behaviours and longevity. Accordingly, a lower CA is expected to be associated with poorer adherence to medication. We investigated the long-term role of CA in adherence to prescribed statins in male patients after a first myocardial infarction (MI). Methods CA was estimated at 18–20 years of age from Military Conscript Register data for first MI male patients (≤60 years) and was related to the one- and two-year post-MI statin adherence on average 30 years later. Background and clinical data were retrieved through register linkage with the unselected national quality register SWEDEHEART for acute coronary events (Register of Information and Knowledge about Swedish Heart Intensive Care Admissions) and secondary prevention (Secondary Prevention after Heart Intensive Care Admission). Previous and present statin prescription data were obtained from the Prescribed Drug Register and adherence was calculated as ≥80% of prescribed dispensations assuming standard dosage. Logistic regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted associations. The primary analyses used 2613 complete cases and imputing incomplete cases rendered a sample of 4061 cases for use in secondary (replicated) analyses. Results One standard deviation increase in CA was positively associated with both one-year (OR 1.15 (CI 1.01–1.31), P < 0.05) and two-year (OR 1.14 (CI 1.02–1.27), P < 0.05) adherence to prescribed statins. Only smoking attenuated the CA–adherence association after adjustment for a range of > 20 covariates. Imputed and complete case analyses yielded very similar results. Conclusions CA estimated on average 30 years earlier in young adulthood is a risk indicator for statin adherence in first MI male patients aged ≤60 years. Future research should include older and female patients and more socioeconomic variables. PMID:28195516

Immunosuppressive therapy for kidney transplantation in children and adolescents: systematic review and economic evaluation.

PubMed Central

Haasova, Marcela; Snowsill, Tristan; Jones-Hughes, Tracey; Crathorne, Louise; Cooper, Chris; Varley-Campbell, Jo; Mujica-Mota, Ruben; Coelho, Helen; Huxley, Nicola; Lowe, Jenny; Dudley, Jan; Marks, Stephen; Hyde, Chris; Bond, Mary; Anderson, Rob

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND End-stage renal disease is a long-term irreversible decline in kidney function requiring kidney transplantation, haemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis. The preferred option is kidney transplantation followed by induction and maintenance immunosuppressive therapy to reduce the risk of kidney rejection and prolong graft survival. OBJECTIVES To systematically review and update the evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of basiliximab (BAS) (Simulect,(®) Novartis Pharmaceuticals) and rabbit antihuman thymocyte immunoglobulin (Thymoglobuline,(®) Sanofi) as induction therapy and immediate-release tacrolimus [Adoport(®) (Sandoz); Capexion(®) (Mylan); Modigraf(®) (Astellas Pharma); Perixis(®) (Accord Healthcare); Prograf(®) (Astellas Pharma); Tacni(®) (Teva); Vivadex(®) (Dexcel Pharma)], prolonged-release tacrolimus (Advagraf,(®) Astellas Pharma); belatacept (BEL) (Nulojix,(®) Bristol-Myers Squibb), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) [Arzip(®) (Zentiva), CellCept(®) (Roche Products), Myfenax(®) (Teva), generic MMF is manufactured by Accord Healthcare, Actavis, Arrow Pharmaceuticals, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Mylan, Sandoz and Wockhardt], mycophenolate sodium, sirolimus (Rapamune,(®) Pfizer) and everolimus (Certican,(®) Novartis Pharmaceuticals) as maintenance therapy in children and adolescents undergoing renal transplantation. DATA SOURCES Clinical effectiveness searches were conducted to 7 January 2015 in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (via Wiley Online Library) and Web of Science [via Institute for Scientific Information (ISI)], Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) (The Cochrane Library via Wiley Online Library) and Health Management Information Consortium (via Ovid). Cost-effectiveness searches were conducted to 15 January 2015 using a costs or economic literature search filter in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), NHS Economic Evaluation Databases (via Wiley Online Library), Web of Science (via ISI), Health Economic Evaluations Database (via Wiley Online Library) and EconLit (via EBSCOhost). REVIEW METHODS Titles and abstracts were screened according to predefined inclusion criteria, as were full texts of identified studies. Included studies were extracted and quality appraised. Data were meta-analysed when appropriate. A new discrete time state transition economic model (semi-Markov) was developed; graft function, and incidences of acute rejection and new-onset diabetes mellitus were used to extrapolate graft survival. Recipients were assumed to be in one of three health states: functioning graft, graft loss or death. RESULTS Three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and four non-RCTs were included. The RCTs only evaluated BAS and tacrolimus (TAC). No statistically significant differences in key outcomes were found between BAS and placebo/no induction. Statistically significantly higher graft function (p < 0.01) and less biopsy-proven acute rejection (odds ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.15 to 0.57) was found between TAC and ciclosporin (CSA). Only one cost-effectiveness study was identified, which informed NICE guidance TA99. BAS [with TAC and azathioprine (AZA)] was predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) versus no induction (BAS was dominant). BAS (with CSA and MMF) was not predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY versus no induction (BAS was dominated). TAC (with AZA) was predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY versus CSA (TAC was dominant). A model based on adult evidence suggests that at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY, BAS and TAC are cost-effective in all considered combinations; MMF was also cost-effective with CSA but not TAC. LIMITATIONS The RCT evidence is very limited; analyses comparing all interventions need to rely on adult evidence. CONCLUSIONS TAC is likely to be cost-effective (vs. CSA, in combination with AZA) at £20,000-30,000 per QALY. Analysis based on one RCT found BAS to be dominant, but analysis based on another RCT found BAS to be dominated. BAS plus TAC and AZA was predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY when all regimens were compared using extrapolated adult evidence. High-quality primary effectiveness research is needed. The UK Renal Registry could form the basis for a prospective primary study. STUDY REGISTRATION This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013544. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research HTA programme. PMID:27557331

Immunosuppressive therapy for kidney transplantation in children and adolescents: systematic review and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Haasova, Marcela; Snowsill, Tristan; Jones-Hughes, Tracey; Crathorne, Louise; Cooper, Chris; Varley-Campbell, Jo; Mujica-Mota, Ruben; Coelho, Helen; Huxley, Nicola; Lowe, Jenny; Dudley, Jan; Marks, Stephen; Hyde, Chris; Bond, Mary; Anderson, Rob

2016-08-01

End-stage renal disease is a long-term irreversible decline in kidney function requiring kidney transplantation, haemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis. The preferred option is kidney transplantation followed by induction and maintenance immunosuppressive therapy to reduce the risk of kidney rejection and prolong graft survival. To systematically review and update the evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of basiliximab (BAS) (Simulect,(®) Novartis Pharmaceuticals) and rabbit antihuman thymocyte immunoglobulin (Thymoglobuline,(®) Sanofi) as induction therapy and immediate-release tacrolimus [Adoport(®) (Sandoz); Capexion(®) (Mylan); Modigraf(®) (Astellas Pharma); Perixis(®) (Accord Healthcare); Prograf(®) (Astellas Pharma); Tacni(®) (Teva); Vivadex(®) (Dexcel Pharma)], prolonged-release tacrolimus (Advagraf,(®) Astellas Pharma); belatacept (BEL) (Nulojix,(®) Bristol-Myers Squibb), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) [Arzip(®) (Zentiva), CellCept(®) (Roche Products), Myfenax(®) (Teva), generic MMF is manufactured by Accord Healthcare, Actavis, Arrow Pharmaceuticals, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Mylan, Sandoz and Wockhardt], mycophenolate sodium, sirolimus (Rapamune,(®) Pfizer) and everolimus (Certican,(®) Novartis Pharmaceuticals) as maintenance therapy in children and adolescents undergoing renal transplantation. Clinical effectiveness searches were conducted to 7 January 2015 in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (via Wiley Online Library) and Web of Science [via Institute for Scientific Information (ISI)], Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) (The Cochrane Library via Wiley Online Library) and Health Management Information Consortium (via Ovid). Cost-effectiveness searches were conducted to 15 January 2015 using a costs or economic literature search filter in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), NHS Economic Evaluation Databases (via Wiley Online Library), Web of Science (via ISI), Health Economic Evaluations Database (via Wiley Online Library) and EconLit (via EBSCOhost). Titles and abstracts were screened according to predefined inclusion criteria, as were full texts of identified studies. Included studies were extracted and quality appraised. Data were meta-analysed when appropriate. A new discrete time state transition economic model (semi-Markov) was developed; graft function, and incidences of acute rejection and new-onset diabetes mellitus were used to extrapolate graft survival. Recipients were assumed to be in one of three health states: functioning graft, graft loss or death. Three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and four non-RCTs were included. The RCTs only evaluated BAS and tacrolimus (TAC). No statistically significant differences in key outcomes were found between BAS and placebo/no induction. Statistically significantly higher graft function (p < 0.01) and less biopsy-proven acute rejection (odds ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.15 to 0.57) was found between TAC and ciclosporin (CSA). Only one cost-effectiveness study was identified, which informed NICE guidance TA99. BAS [with TAC and azathioprine (AZA)] was predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) versus no induction (BAS was dominant). BAS (with CSA and MMF) was not predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY versus no induction (BAS was dominated). TAC (with AZA) was predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY versus CSA (TAC was dominant). A model based on adult evidence suggests that at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY, BAS and TAC are cost-effective in all considered combinations; MMF was also cost-effective with CSA but not TAC. The RCT evidence is very limited; analyses comparing all interventions need to rely on adult evidence. TAC is likely to be cost-effective (vs. CSA, in combination with AZA) at £20,000-30,000 per QALY. Analysis based on one RCT found BAS to be dominant, but analysis based on another RCT found BAS to be dominated. BAS plus TAC and AZA was predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY when all regimens were compared using extrapolated adult evidence. High-quality primary effectiveness research is needed. The UK Renal Registry could form the basis for a prospective primary study. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013544. The National Institute for Health Research HTA programme.

Experimental and analytical transonic flutter characteristics of a geared-elevator configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruhlin, C. L.; Doggett, R. V., Jr.; Gregory, R. A.

1980-01-01

The flutter model represented the aft fuselage and empennage of a proposed supersonic transport airplane and had an all movable horizontal tail with a geared elevator. It was tested mounted from a sting in the transonic dynamics tunnel. Symmetric flutter boundaries were determined experimentally at Mach numbers from 0.7 to 1.14 for a geared elevator configuration (gear ratio of 2.8 to 1.0) and an ungeared elevator configuration (gear ratio of 1.0 to 1.0). Gearing the elevator increased the experimental flutter dynamic pressures about 20 percent. Flutter calculations were made for the geared elevator configuration by using two analytical methods based on subsonic lifting surface theory. Both methods analyzed the stabilizer and elevator as a single, deforming surface, but one method also allowed the elevator to be analyzed as hinged from the stabilizer. All analyses predicted lower flutter dynamic pressures than experiment with best agreement (within 12 percent) for the hinged elevator method. Considering the model as mounted from a flexible rather than rigid sting in the analyses, had only a slight effect on the flutter results but was significant in that a sting related vibration mode was identified as a potentially flutter critical mode.

Personality and attention: Levels of neuroticism and extraversion can predict attentional performance during a change detection task.

PubMed

Hahn, Sowon; Buttaccio, Daniel R; Hahn, Jungwon; Lee, Taehun

2015-01-01

The present study demonstrates that levels of extraversion and neuroticism can predict attentional performance during a change detection task. After completing a change detection task built on the flicker paradigm, participants were assessed for personality traits using the Revised Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ-R). Multiple regression analyses revealed that higher levels of extraversion predict increased change detection accuracies, while higher levels of neuroticism predict decreased change detection accuracies. In addition, neurotic individuals exhibited decreased sensitivity A' and increased fixation dwell times. Hierarchical regression analyses further revealed that eye movement measures mediate the relationship between neuroticism and change detection accuracies. Based on the current results, we propose that neuroticism is associated with decreased attentional control over the visual field, presumably due to decreased attentional disengagement. Extraversion can predict increased attentional performance, but the effect is smaller than the relationship between neuroticism and attention.

Protein-Protein Interactions in a Crowded Environment: An Analysis via Cross-Docking Simulations and Evolutionary Information

PubMed Central

Lopes, Anne; Sacquin-Mora, Sophie; Dimitrova, Viktoriya; Laine, Elodie; Ponty, Yann; Carbone, Alessandra

2013-01-01

Large-scale analyses of protein-protein interactions based on coarse-grain molecular docking simulations and binding site predictions resulting from evolutionary sequence analysis, are possible and realizable on hundreds of proteins with variate structures and interfaces. We demonstrated this on the 168 proteins of the Mintseris Benchmark 2.0. On the one hand, we evaluated the quality of the interaction signal and the contribution of docking information compared to evolutionary information showing that the combination of the two improves partner identification. On the other hand, since protein interactions usually occur in crowded environments with several competing partners, we realized a thorough analysis of the interactions of proteins with true partners but also with non-partners to evaluate whether proteins in the environment, competing with the true partner, affect its identification. We found three populations of proteins: strongly competing, never competing, and interacting with different levels of strength. Populations and levels of strength are numerically characterized and provide a signature for the behavior of a protein in the crowded environment. We showed that partner identification, to some extent, does not depend on the competing partners present in the environment, that certain biochemical classes of proteins are intrinsically easier to analyze than others, and that small proteins are not more promiscuous than large ones. Our approach brings to light that the knowledge of the binding site can be used to reduce the high computational cost of docking simulations with no consequence in the quality of the results, demonstrating the possibility to apply coarse-grain docking to datasets made of thousands of proteins. Comparison with all available large-scale analyses aimed to partner predictions is realized. We release the complete decoys set issued by coarse-grain docking simulations of both true and false interacting partners, and their evolutionary sequence analysis leading to binding site predictions. Download site: http://www.lgm.upmc.fr/CCDMintseris/ PMID:24339765

Association of Climatic Variability, Vector Population and Malarial Disease in District of Visakhapatnam, India: A Modeling and Prediction Analysis.

PubMed

Srimath-Tirumula-Peddinti, Ravi Chandra Pavan Kumar; Neelapu, Nageswara Rao Reddy; Sidagam, Naresh

2015-01-01

Malarial incidence, severity, dynamics and distribution of malaria are strongly determined by climatic factors, i.e., temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM). Epidemiological, vector and climate data were analysed for the years 2005 to 2011 in Visakhapatnam to understand the magnitude, trends and seasonal patterns of the malarial disease. Statistical software MINITAB ver. 14 was used for performing correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis. Perennial malaria disease incidence and mosquito population was observed in the district of Visakhapatnam with peaks in seasons. All the climatic variables have a significant influence on disease incidence as well as on mosquito populations. Correlation coefficient analysis, seasonal index and seasonal analysis demonstrated significant relationships among climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in the district of Visakhapatnam, India. Multiple regression and ARIMA (I) models are best suited models for modeling and prediction of disease incidences and mosquito population. Predicted values of average temperature, mosquito population and malarial cases increased along with the year. Developed MTM algorithm observed a major MTM cycle following the June to August rains and occurring between June to September and minor MTM cycles following March to April rains and occurring between March to April in the district of Visakhapatnam. Fluctuations in climatic factors favored an increase in mosquito populations and thereby increasing the number of malarial cases. Rainfall, temperatures (20°C to 33°C) and humidity (66% to 81%) maintained a warmer, wetter climate for mosquito growth, parasite development and malaria transmission. Changes in climatic factors influence malaria directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of vectors and by changing the length of the life cycle of the parasite.

Association of Climatic Variability, Vector Population and Malarial Disease in District of Visakhapatnam, India: A Modeling and Prediction Analysis

PubMed Central

Srimath-Tirumula-Peddinti, Ravi Chandra Pavan Kumar; Neelapu, Nageswara Rao Reddy; Sidagam, Naresh

2015-01-01

Background Malarial incidence, severity, dynamics and distribution of malaria are strongly determined by climatic factors, i.e., temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM). Methodology Epidemiological, vector and climate data were analysed for the years 2005 to 2011 in Visakhapatnam to understand the magnitude, trends and seasonal patterns of the malarial disease. Statistical software MINITAB ver. 14 was used for performing correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis. Results/Findings Perennial malaria disease incidence and mosquito population was observed in the district of Visakhapatnam with peaks in seasons. All the climatic variables have a significant influence on disease incidence as well as on mosquito populations. Correlation coefficient analysis, seasonal index and seasonal analysis demonstrated significant relationships among climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in the district of Visakhapatnam, India. Multiple regression and ARIMA (I) models are best suited models for modeling and prediction of disease incidences and mosquito population. Predicted values of average temperature, mosquito population and malarial cases increased along with the year. Developed MTM algorithm observed a major MTM cycle following the June to August rains and occurring between June to September and minor MTM cycles following March to April rains and occurring between March to April in the district of Visakhapatnam. Fluctuations in climatic factors favored an increase in mosquito populations and thereby increasing the number of malarial cases. Rainfall, temperatures (20°C to 33°C) and humidity (66% to 81%) maintained a warmer, wetter climate for mosquito growth, parasite development and malaria transmission. Conclusions/Significance Changes in climatic factors influence malaria directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of vectors and by changing the length of the life cycle of the parasite. PMID:26110279

Turbine blade forced response prediction using FREPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Durbha, V.; Morel, Michael R.

1993-01-01

This paper describes a software system called FREPS (Forced REsponse Prediction System) that integrates structural dynamic, steady and unsteady aerodynamic analyses to efficiently predict the forced response dynamic stresses in axial flow turbomachinery blades due to aerodynamic and mechanical excitations. A flutter analysis capability is also incorporated into the system. The FREPS system performs aeroelastic analysis by modeling the motion of the blade in terms of its normal modes. The structural dynamic analysis is performed by a finite element code such as MSC/NASTRAN. The steady aerodynamic analysis is based on nonlinear potential theory and the unsteady aerodynamic analyses is based on the linearization of the non-uniform potential flow mean. The program description and presentation of the capabilities are reported herein. The effectiveness of the FREPS package is demonstrated on the High Pressure Oxygen Turbopump turbine of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Both flutter and forced response analyses are performed and typical results are illustrated.

HCV prevalence can predict HIV epidemic potential among people who inject drugs: mathematical modeling analysis.

PubMed

Akbarzadeh, Vajiheh; Mumtaz, Ghina R; Awad, Susanne F; Weiss, Helen A; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

2016-12-03

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV are both transmitted through percutaneous exposures among people who inject drugs (PWID). Ecological analyses on global epidemiological data have identified a positive association between HCV and HIV prevalence among PWID. Our objective was to demonstrate how HCV prevalence can be used to predict HIV epidemic potential among PWID. Two population-level models were constructed to simulate the evolution of HCV and HIV epidemics among PWID. The models described HCV and HIV parenteral transmission, and were solved both deterministically and stochastically. The modeling results provided a good fit to the epidemiological data describing the ecological HCV and HIV association among PWID. HCV was estimated to be eight times more transmissible per shared injection than HIV. A threshold HCV prevalence of 29.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 20.7-39.8) and 46.5% (95% UI: 37.6-56.6) were identified for a sustainable HIV epidemic (HIV prevalence >1%) and concentrated HIV epidemic (HIV prevalence >5%), respectively. The association between HCV and HIV was further described with six dynamical regimes depicting the overlapping epidemiology of the two infections, and was quantified using defined and estimated measures of association. Modeling predictions across a wide range of HCV prevalence indicated overall acceptable precision in predicting HIV prevalence at endemic equilibrium. Modeling predictions were found to be robust with respect to stochasticity and behavioral and biological parameter uncertainty. In an illustrative application of the methodology, the modeling predictions of endemic HIV prevalence in Iran agreed with the scale and time course of the HIV epidemic in this country. Our results show that HCV prevalence can be used as a proxy biomarker of HIV epidemic potential among PWID, and that the scale and evolution of HIV epidemic expansion can be predicted with sufficient precision to inform HIV policy, programming, and resource allocation.

An obstetric sphincter injury risk identification system (OSIRIS): is this a clinically useful tool?

PubMed

Webb, Sara S; Hemming, Karla; Khalfaoui, Madhi Y; Henriksen, Tine Brink; Kindberg, Sara; Stensgaard, Stine; Kettle, Christine; Ismail, Khaled M K

2017-03-01

To establish the contribution of maternal, fetal and intrapartum factors to the risk of incidence of obstetric anal sphincter injuries (OASIS) and assess the feasibility of an OASIS risk prediction model based on variables available to clinicians prior to birth. This was a population-based, retrospective cohort study using single-site data from the birth database of Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark. The participants were all women who had a singleton vaginal birth during the period 1989 to 2006. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed using multiple imputations for missing data and internally validated using bootstrap methods. The main outcome measures were the contributions of maternal, fetal and intrapartum events to the incidence of OASIS. A total of 71,469 women met the inclusion criteria, of whom 1,754 (2.45 %) sustained OASIS. In the multivariate analysis of variables known prior to birth, maternal age 20 - 30 years (OR 1.65, 95 % CI 1.44 - 1.89) and ≥30 years (OR 1.60, 95 % CI 1.39 - 1.85), occipitoposterior fetal position (OR 1.34, 95 % CI 1.06 - 1.70), induction/augmentation of labour (OR 1.46, 95 % CI 1.32 - 1.62), and suspected macrosomia (OR 2.20, 95 % CI 1.97 - 2.45) were independent significant predictors of OASIS, with increasing parity conferring a significant protective effect. The 'prebirth variable' model showed a 95 % sensitivity and a 24 % specificity in predicting OASIS with 1 % probability, and a 3 % sensitivity and a 99 % specificity in predicting OASIS with a 10 % probability. Our model identified several significant OASIS risk factors that are known prior to actual birth. The prognostic model shows potential for ruling out OASIS (high sensitivity with a low risk cut-off value), but is not useful for ruling in the event.

Centrifugal compressor design for electrically assisted boost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Y Yang, M.; Martinez-Botas, R. F.; Zhuge, W. L.; Qureshi, U.; Richards, B.

2013-12-01

Electrically assisted boost is a prominent method to solve the issues of transient lag in turbocharger and remains an optimized operation condition for a compressor due to decoupling from turbine. Usually a centrifugal compressor for gasoline engine boosting is operated at high rotational speed which is beyond the ability of an electric motor in market. In this paper a centrifugal compressor with rotational speed as 120k RPM and pressure ratio as 2.0 is specially developed for electrically assisted boost. A centrifugal compressor including the impeller, vaneless diffuser and the volute is designed by meanline method followed by 3D detailed design. Then CFD method is employed to predict as well as analyse the performance of the design compressor. The results show that the pressure ratio and efficiency at design point is 2.07 and 78% specifically.

MED: a new non-supervised gene prediction algorithm for bacterial and archaeal genomes.

PubMed

Zhu, Huaiqiu; Hu, Gang-Qing; Yang, Yi-Fan; Wang, Jin; She, Zhen-Su

2007-03-16

Despite a remarkable success in the computational prediction of genes in Bacteria and Archaea, a lack of comprehensive understanding of prokaryotic gene structures prevents from further elucidation of differences among genomes. It continues to be interesting to develop new ab initio algorithms which not only accurately predict genes, but also facilitate comparative studies of prokaryotic genomes. This paper describes a new prokaryotic genefinding algorithm based on a comprehensive statistical model of protein coding Open Reading Frames (ORFs) and Translation Initiation Sites (TISs). The former is based on a linguistic "Entropy Density Profile" (EDP) model of coding DNA sequence and the latter comprises several relevant features related to the translation initiation. They are combined to form a so-called Multivariate Entropy Distance (MED) algorithm, MED 2.0, that incorporates several strategies in the iterative program. The iterations enable us to develop a non-supervised learning process and to obtain a set of genome-specific parameters for the gene structure, before making the prediction of genes. Results of extensive tests show that MED 2.0 achieves a competitive high performance in the gene prediction for both 5' and 3' end matches, compared to the current best prokaryotic gene finders. The advantage of the MED 2.0 is particularly evident for GC-rich genomes and archaeal genomes. Furthermore, the genome-specific parameters given by MED 2.0 match with the current understanding of prokaryotic genomes and may serve as tools for comparative genomic studies. In particular, MED 2.0 is shown to reveal divergent translation initiation mechanisms in archaeal genomes while making a more accurate prediction of TISs compared to the existing gene finders and the current GenBank annotation.

BepiPred-2.0: improving sequence-based B-cell epitope prediction using conformational epitopes.

PubMed

Jespersen, Martin Closter; Peters, Bjoern; Nielsen, Morten; Marcatili, Paolo

2017-07-03

Antibodies have become an indispensable tool for many biotechnological and clinical applications. They bind their molecular target (antigen) by recognizing a portion of its structure (epitope) in a highly specific manner. The ability to predict epitopes from antigen sequences alone is a complex task. Despite substantial effort, limited advancement has been achieved over the last decade in the accuracy of epitope prediction methods, especially for those that rely on the sequence of the antigen only. Here, we present BepiPred-2.0 (http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/BepiPred/), a web server for predicting B-cell epitopes from antigen sequences. BepiPred-2.0 is based on a random forest algorithm trained on epitopes annotated from antibody-antigen protein structures. This new method was found to outperform other available tools for sequence-based epitope prediction both on epitope data derived from solved 3D structures, and on a large collection of linear epitopes downloaded from the IEDB database. The method displays results in a user-friendly and informative way, both for computer-savvy and non-expert users. We believe that BepiPred-2.0 will be a valuable tool for the bioinformatics and immunology community. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Traffic Noise Ground Attenuation Algorithm Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Lloyd Allen

The Federal Highway Administration traffic noise prediction program, STAMINA 2.0, was evaluated for its accuracy. In addition, the ground attenuation algorithm used in the Ontario ORNAMENT method was evaluated to determine its potential to improve these predictions. Field measurements of sound levels were made at 41 sites on I-440 in Nashville, Tennessee in order to both study noise barrier effectiveness and to evaluate STAMINA 2.0 and the performance of the ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm. The measurement sites, which contain large variations in terrain, included several cross sections. Further, all sites contain some type of barrier, natural or constructed, which could more fully expose the strength and weaknesses of the ground attenuation algorithms. The noise barrier evaluation was accomplished in accordance with American National Standard Methods for Determination of Insertion Loss of Outdoor Noise Barriers which resulted in an evaluation of this standard. The entire 7.2 mile length of I-440 was modeled using STAMINA 2.0. A multiple run procedure was developed to emulate the results that would be obtained if the ORNAMENT algorithm was incorporated into STAMINA 2.0. Finally, the predicted noise levels based on STAMINA 2.0 and STAMINA with the ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm were compared with each other and with the field measurements. It was found that STAMINA 2.0 overpredicted noise levels by an average of over 2 dB for the receivers on I-440, whereas, the STAMINA with ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm overpredicted noise levels by an average of less than 0.5 dB. The mean errors for the two predictions were found to be statistically different from each other, and the mean error for the prediction with the ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm was not found to be statistically different from zero. The STAMINA 2.0 program predicts little, if any, ground attenuation for receivers at typical first-row distances from highways where noise barriers are used. The ORNAMENT ground attenuation algorithm, which recognizes and better compensates for the presence of obstacles in the propagation path of a sound wave, predicted significant amounts of ground attenuation for most sites.

Does a history of bullying and abuse predict lower urinary tract symptoms, chronic pain, and sexual dysfunction?

PubMed

Nault, Tori; Gupta, Priyanka; Ehlert, Michael; Dove-Medows, Emily; Seltzer, Marlene; Carrico, Donna J; Gilleran, Jason; Bartley, Jamie; Peters, Kenneth M; Sirls, Larry

2016-11-01

To investigate associations of bullying and abuse with pelvic floor symptoms, urogenital pain, and sexual health characteristics of women presenting to a multidisciplinary women's urology center. Retrospective review of a prospective database. Patients completed questions about bullying, abuse, sexual health and validated questionnaires including the Pelvic Floor Dysfunction Inventory (PFDI-20), Overactive Bladder Questionnaire (OAB-q), and visual analog scale (VAS 0-10) for genitourinary pain. Statistical analyses included Chi-squared and t tests, which compared victims of bullying and/or abuse to non-victims. Three hundred and eighty patients were reviewed. Three hundred and thirty-eight had data on bullying and abuse history. Out of 380, 94 (24.7 %) reported that they were victims of bullying. Out of 380, 104 (27.4 %) reported that they were victims of abuse. Women with a history of bullying and abuse had increased overall pain scores compared to those without a history of either. Women with a history of abuse and bullying had increased PFDI-20, POPDI, and UDI-6 scores compared to women who were not bullied or abused. There was no difference in being sexually active or in sexual satisfaction between the groups. Patients with a history of abuse and bullying had the greatest percentage of dyspareunia (p = 0.009). Women with a history of bullying, abuse, or both predict increased pelvic floor distress, urological symptoms, increased urogenital pain, and increased dyspareunia. Clinicians should screen for exposure to bullying or abuse in order to provide comprehensive resources to address these psychosocial issues.

Hotspot Motion, Before and After the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarduno, J. A.; Bono, R. K.

2014-12-01

Hawaiian hotspot motion of >40 mm/yr is best documented by paleomagnetic investigations of basalt cores recovered by ocean drilling of the Emperor seamounts during ODP Leg 197 (Tarduno et al., 2003). These data indicate that the trend of the Emperor Seamounts dominantly records motion of the hotspot in the mantle, further suggesting that the great Hawaiian-Emperor bend (HEB) reflects mainly a change in hotspot motion. Data used for Pacific "absolute plate motion models" for times before the age of the HEB are also internally inconsistent with a fixed hotspot assumption; at present the best way to estimate Pacific absolute plate motion prior to the HEB bend is through use of predictions derived from plate circuits (e.g. Doubrovine and Tarduno, 2008). These analyses predict much less motion for the hotspot responsible for the Louisville Seamount chain, as has been observed by paleomagnetic analyses of cores recovered by IODP Expedition 330 (Koppers et al., 2012). Together, the ocean drilling data sets favor hotspot-specific processes to explain high drift rates, such as the model whereby the Hawaiian mantle plume was captured by a ridge in the Late Cretaceous, and subsequent changes in sub-Pacific mantle flow resulted in the trend of the Emperor Seamounts (Tarduno et al., 2009). However, the question of whether there is a smaller signal of motion between groups of hotspots remains. Plate circuit analyses yield a small discrepancy between predicted and actual hotspot locations for times between ca. 47 Ma and 10 Ma that could be a signal of continued southward migration of the Hawaiian hotspot. Alternatively, this could reflect the motion of the group of Indo-Atlantic hotspots relative to Hawaii. New paleomagnetic data from Midway Atoll (ca. 27 Ma) suggests little difference with the present-day latitude of the plume, indicating that the rate of motion of either the Hawaiian hotspot, or the Indo-Atlantic hotspot group, was about 15 mm/yr between 47 and 27 Ma. This compares with a value of 31 +/- 20 mm/yr observed for motion between Atlantic and Pacific hotspots during the mid-Cretaceous (Tarduno and Gee, 1995). As the mid-Cretaceous hotspots have been associated with the paleo-African and Pacific Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces, the latter rate of motion represents one bound on the fixity of these provinces over time.

On the Use of Equivalent Linearization for High-Cycle Fatigue Analysis of Geometrically Nonlinear Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rizzi, Stephen A.

2003-01-01

The use of stress predictions from equivalent linearization analyses in the computation of high-cycle fatigue life is examined. Stresses so obtained differ in behavior from the fully nonlinear analysis in both spectral shape and amplitude. Consequently, fatigue life predictions made using this data will be affected. Comparisons of fatigue life predictions based upon the stress response obtained from equivalent linear and numerical simulation analyses are made to determine the range over which the equivalent linear analysis is applicable.

Prediction of pork quality parameters by applying fractals and data mining on MRI.

PubMed

Caballero, Daniel; Pérez-Palacios, Trinidad; Caro, Andrés; Amigo, José Manuel; Dahl, Anders B; ErsbØll, Bjarne K; Antequera, Teresa

2017-09-01

This work firstly investigates the use of MRI, fractal algorithms and data mining techniques to determine pork quality parameters non-destructively. The main objective was to evaluate the capability of fractal algorithms (Classical Fractal algorithm, CFA; Fractal Texture Algorithm, FTA and One Point Fractal Texture Algorithm, OPFTA) to analyse MRI in order to predict quality parameters of loin. In addition, the effect of the sequence acquisition of MRI (Gradient echo, GE; Spin echo, SE and Turbo 3D, T3D) and the predictive technique of data mining (Isotonic regression, IR and Multiple linear regression, MLR) were analysed. Both fractal algorithm, FTA and OPFTA are appropriate to analyse MRI of loins. The sequence acquisition, the fractal algorithm and the data mining technique seems to influence on the prediction results. For most physico-chemical parameters, prediction equations with moderate to excellent correlation coefficients were achieved by using the following combinations of acquisition sequences of MRI, fractal algorithms and data mining techniques: SE-FTA-MLR, SE-OPFTA-IR, GE-OPFTA-MLR, SE-OPFTA-MLR, with the last one offering the best prediction results. Thus, SE-OPFTA-MLR could be proposed as an alternative technique to determine physico-chemical traits of fresh and dry-cured loins in a non-destructive way with high accuracy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score predicts biochemical recurrence in intermediate-risk prostate cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose escalation or low-dose rate (LDR) brachytherapy.

PubMed

Krishnan, Vimal; Delouya, Guila; Bahary, Jean-Paul; Larrivée, Sandra; Taussky, Daniel

2014-12-01

To study the prognostic value of the University of California, San Francisco Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score to predict biochemical failure (bF) after various doses of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and/or permanent seed low-dose rate (LDR) prostate brachytherapy (PB). We retrospectively analysed 345 patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer, with PSA levels of 10-20 ng/mL and/or Gleason 7 including 244 EBRT patients (70.2-79.2 Gy) and 101 patients treated with LDR PB. The minimum follow-up was 3 years. No patient received primary androgen-deprivation therapy. bF was defined according to the Phoenix definition. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the differences between CAPRA groups. The overall bF rate was 13% (45/345). The CAPRA score, as a continuous variable, was statistically significant in multivariate analysis for predicting bF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.72, P = 0.006). There was a trend for a lower bF rate in patients treated with LDR PB when compared with those treated by EBRT ≤ 74 Gy (HR 0.234, 95% CI 0.05-1.03, P = 0.055) in multivariate analysis. In the subgroup of patients with a CAPRA score of 3-5, CAPRA remained predictive of bF as a continuous variable (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.01-2.27, P = 0.047) in multivariate analysis. The CAPRA score is useful for predicting biochemical recurrence in patients treated for intermediate-risk prostate cancer with EBRT or LDR PB. It could help in treatment decisions. © 2013 The Authors. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.

Derivation and validation of in-hospital mortality prediction models in ischaemic stroke patients using administrative data.

PubMed

Lee, Jason; Morishima, Toshitaka; Kunisawa, Susumu; Sasaki, Noriko; Otsubo, Tetsuya; Ikai, Hiroshi; Imanaka, Yuichi

2013-01-01

Stroke and other cerebrovascular diseases are a major cause of death and disability. Predicting in-hospital mortality in ischaemic stroke patients can help to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment approaches. Chart reviews provide important clinical information for mortality prediction, but are laborious and limiting in sample sizes. Administrative data allow for large-scale multi-institutional analyses but lack the necessary clinical information for outcome research. However, administrative claims data in Japan has seen the recent inclusion of patient consciousness and disability information, which may allow more accurate mortality prediction using administrative data alone. The aim of this study was to derive and validate models to predict in-hospital mortality in patients admitted for ischaemic stroke using administrative data. The sample consisted of 21,445 patients from 176 Japanese hospitals, who were randomly divided into derivation and validation subgroups. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed using 7- and 30-day and overall in-hospital mortality as dependent variables. Independent variables included patient age, sex, comorbidities upon admission, Japan Coma Scale (JCS) score, Barthel Index score, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, and admissions after hours and on weekends/public holidays. Models were developed in the derivation subgroup, and coefficients from these models were applied to the validation subgroup. Predictive ability was analysed using C-statistics; calibration was evaluated with Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) tests. All three models showed predictive abilities similar or surpassing that of chart review-based models. The C-statistics were highest in the 7-day in-hospital mortality prediction model, at 0.906 and 0.901 in the derivation and validation subgroups, respectively. For the 30-day in-hospital mortality prediction models, the C-statistics for the derivation and validation subgroups were 0.893 and 0.872, respectively; in overall in-hospital mortality prediction these values were 0.883 and 0.876. In this study, we have derived and validated in-hospital mortality prediction models for three different time spans using a large population of ischaemic stroke patients in a multi-institutional analysis. The recent inclusion of JCS, Barthel Index, and mRS scores in Japanese administrative data has allowed the prediction of in-hospital mortality with accuracy comparable to that of chart review analyses. The models developed using administrative data had consistently high predictive abilities for all models in both the derivation and validation subgroups. These results have implications in the role of administrative data in future mortality prediction analyses. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

How coping styles, cognitive distortions, and attachment predict problem gambling among adolescents and young adults.

PubMed

Calado, Filipa; Alexandre, Joana; Griffiths, Mark D

2017-12-01

Background and aims Recent research suggests that youth problem gambling is associated with several factors, but little is known how these factors might influence or interact each other in predicting this behavior. Consequently, this is the first study to examine the mediation effect of coping styles in the relationship between attachment to parental figures and problem gambling. Methods A total of 988 adolescents and emerging adults were recruited to participate. The first set of analyses tested the adequacy of a model comprising biological, cognitive, and family variables in predicting youth problem gambling. The second set of analyses explored the relationship between family and individual variables in problem gambling behavior. Results The results of the first set of analyses demonstrated that the individual factors of gender, cognitive distortions, and coping styles showed a significant predictive effect on youth problematic gambling, and the family factors of attachment and family structure did not reveal a significant influence on this behavior. The results of the second set of analyses demonstrated that the attachment dimension of angry distress exerted a more indirect influence on problematic gambling, through emotion-focused coping style. Discussion This study revealed that some family variables can have a more indirect effect on youth gambling behavior and provided some insights in how some factors interact in predicting problem gambling. Conclusion These findings suggest that youth gambling is a multifaceted phenomenon, and that the indirect effects of family variables are important in estimating the complex social forces that might influence adolescent decisions to gamble.

Large-scale binding ligand prediction by improved patch-based method Patch-Surfer2.0.

PubMed

Zhu, Xiaolei; Xiong, Yi; Kihara, Daisuke

2015-03-01

Ligand binding is a key aspect of the function of many proteins. Thus, binding ligand prediction provides important insight in understanding the biological function of proteins. Binding ligand prediction is also useful for drug design and examining potential drug side effects. We present a computational method named Patch-Surfer2.0, which predicts binding ligands for a protein pocket. By representing and comparing pockets at the level of small local surface patches that characterize physicochemical properties of the local regions, the method can identify binding pockets of the same ligand even if they do not share globally similar shapes. Properties of local patches are represented by an efficient mathematical representation, 3D Zernike Descriptor. Patch-Surfer2.0 has significant technical improvements over our previous prototype, which includes a new feature that captures approximate patch position with a geodesic distance histogram. Moreover, we constructed a large comprehensive database of ligand binding pockets that will be searched against by a query. The benchmark shows better performance of Patch-Surfer2.0 over existing methods. http://kiharalab.org/patchsurfer2.0/ CONTACT: dkihara@purdue.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Rhodamine bound maghemite as a long-term dual imaging nanoprobe of adipose tissue-derived mesenchymal stromal cells.

PubMed

Cmiel, Vratislav; Skopalik, Josef; Polakova, Katerina; Solar, Jan; Havrdova, Marketa; Milde, David; Justan, Ivan; Magro, Massimiliano; Starcuk, Zenon; Provaznik, Ivo

2017-07-01

In the last few years, magnetically labeled cells have been intensively explored, and non-invasive cell tracking and magnetic manipulation methods have been tested in preclinical studies focused on cell transplantation. For clinical applications, it is desirable to know the intracellular pathway of nanoparticles, which can predict their biocompatibility with cells and the long-term imaging properties of labeled cells. Here, we quantified labeling efficiency, localization, and fluorescence properties of Rhodamine derivatized superparamagnetic maghemite nanoparticles (SAMN-R) in mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC). We investigated the stability of SAMN-R in the intracellular space during a long culture (20 days). Analyses were based on advanced confocal microscopy accompanied by atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) and magnetic resonance imaging. SAMN-R displayed excellent cellular uptake (24 h of labeling), and no toxicity of SAMN-R labeling was found. 83% of SAMN-R nanoparticles were localized in lysosomes, only 4.8% were found in mitochondria, and no particles were localized in the nucleus. On the basis of the MSC fluorescence measurement every 6 days, we also quantified the continual decrease of SAMN-R fluorescence in the average single MSC during 18 days. An additional set of analyses showed that the intracellular SAMN-R signal decrease was minimally caused by fluorophore degradation or nanoparticles extraction from the cells, main reason is a cell division. The fluorescence of SAMN-R nanoparticles within the cells was detectable minimally for 20 days. These observations indicate that SAMN-R nanoparticles have a potential for application in transplantation medicine.

Breastfeeding and its relation to maternal sensitivity and infant attachment.

PubMed

Tharner, Anne; Luijk, Maartje P C M; Raat, Hein; Ijzendoorn, Marinus H; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Moll, Henriette A; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Hofman, Albert; Verhulst, Frank C; Tiemeier, Henning

2012-06-01

To examine the association of breastfeeding with maternal sensitive responsiveness and infant-mother attachment security and disorganization. We included 675 participants of a prospective cohort study. Questionnaires about breastfeeding practices were administered at 2 and 6 months postpartum. At 14 months, maternal sensitive responsiveness was assessed in a 13-minute laboratory procedure using Ainsworth's sensitivity scales, and attachment quality was assessed with the Strange Situation Procedure. Mothers were genotyped for oxytocin receptor genes OXTR rs53576 and OXTR rs2254298. Linear regressions and analyses of covariance adjusted for various background variables were conducted. We tested for mediation and moderation by maternal sensitive responsiveness and maternal oxytocin receptor genotype. Continuous analyses showed that longer duration of breastfeeding was associated with more maternal sensitive responsiveness (B = 0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.02; 0.20, p < .05), more attachment security (B = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.02; 0.46, p < .05), and less attachment disorganization (B = -0.20, 95% CI -0.36; -0.03, p < .05). Duration of breastfeeding was not related to the risk of insecure-avoidant or insecure-resistant versus secure attachment classification, but longer duration of breastfeeding predicted a lower risk of disorganized versus secure attachment classification (n = 151; odds ratio [OR] = 0.81, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.99, p = .04). Maternal sensitive responsiveness did not mediate the associations, and maternal oxytocin receptor genotype was not a significant moderator. Although duration of breastfeeding was not associated with differences in infant-mother attachment classifications, we found subtle positive associations between duration of breastfeeding and sensitive responsiveness, attachment security, and disorganization.

A very low geno2pheno false positive rate is associated with poor viro-immunological response in drug-naïve patients starting a first-line HAART.

PubMed

Armenia, Daniele; Soulie, Cathia; Di Carlo, Domenico; Fabeni, Lavinia; Gori, Caterina; Forbici, Federica; Svicher, Valentina; Bertoli, Ada; Sarmati, Loredana; Giuliani, Massimo; Latini, Alessandra; Boumis, Evangelo; Zaccarelli, Mauro; Bellagamba, Rita; Andreoni, Massimo; Marcelin, Anne-Geneviève; Calvez, Vincent; Antinori, Andrea; Ceccherini-Silberstein, Francesca; Perno, Carlo-Federico; Santoro, Maria Mercedes

2014-01-01

We previously found that a very low geno2pheno false positive rate (FPR ≤ 2%) defines a viral population associated with low CD4 cell count and the highest amount of X4-quasispecies. In this study, we aimed at evaluating whether FPR ≤ 2% might impact on the viro-immunological response in HIV-1 infected patients starting a first-line HAART. The analysis was performed on 305 HIV-1 B subtype infected drug-naïve patients who started their first-line HAART. Baseline FPR (%) values were stratified according to the following ranges: ≤ 2; 2-5; 5-10; 10-20; 20-60; >60. The impact of genotypically-inferred tropism on the time to achieve immunological reconstitution (a CD4 cell count gain from HAART initiation ≥ 150 cells/mm(3)) and on the time to achieve virological success (the first HIV-RNA measurement <50 copies/mL from HAART initiation) was evaluated by survival analyses. Overall, at therapy start, 27% of patients had FPR ≤ 10 (6%, FPR ≤ 2; 7%, FPR 2-5; 14%, FPR 5-10). By 12 months of therapy the rate of immunological reconstitution was overall 75.5%, and it was significantly lower for FPR ≤ 2 (54.1%) in comparison to other FPR ranks (78.8%, FPR 2-5; 77.5%, FPR 5-10; 71.7%, FPR 10-20; 81.8%, FPR 20-60; 75.1%, FPR >60; p = 0.008). The overall proportion of patients achieving virological success was 95.5% by 12 months of therapy. Multivariable Cox analyses showed that patients having pre-HAART FPR ≤ 2% had a significant lower relative adjusted hazard [95% C.I.] both to achieve immunological reconstitution (0.37 [0.20-0.71], p = 0.003) and to achieve virological success (0.50 [0.26-0.94], p = 0.031) than those with pre-HAART FPR >60%. Beyond the genotypically-inferred tropism determination, FPR ≤ 2% predicts both a poor immunological reconstitution and a lower virological response in drug-naïve patients who started their first-line therapy. This parameter could be useful to identify patients potentially with less chance of achieving adequate immunological reconstitution and virological undetectability.

Do subjective memory complaints predict senile Alzheimer dementia?

PubMed

Jungwirth, Susanne; Zehetmayer, Sonja; Weissgram, Silvia; Weber, Germain; Tragl, Karl Heinz; Fischer, Peter

2008-01-01

Many elderly complain about their memory and undergo dementia screening by the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). While objective memory impairment always precedes Alzheimer dementia (AD) it is unclear whether subjective memory complaints are predicting AD. We tried to answer this question in a prospective cohort study. The 75-years old non-demented inhabitants of Vienna-Transdanube were investigated for conversion to AD after 30 months. The predictive value of subjective memory complaints was analysed in two groups: subjects with high MMSE-score (28-30) and subjects with low MMSE-score (23-27). Only in subjects with high MMSE univariate analyses showed an association between subjective memory complaints and incident AD. In both groups the verbal memory test was the main predictor of AD in multivariate analyses. We suggest to perform memory testing in subjects complaining about memory irrespective of their performance in a screening procedure like the MMSE.

Dramatic expansion of the black widow toxin arsenal uncovered by multi-tissue transcriptomics and venom proteomics.

PubMed

Haney, Robert A; Ayoub, Nadia A; Clarke, Thomas H; Hayashi, Cheryl Y; Garb, Jessica E

2014-06-11

Animal venoms attract enormous interest given their potential for pharmacological discovery and understanding the evolution of natural chemistries. Next-generation transcriptomics and proteomics provide unparalleled, but underexploited, capabilities for venom characterization. We combined multi-tissue RNA-Seq with mass spectrometry and bioinformatic analyses to determine venom gland specific transcripts and venom proteins from the Western black widow spider (Latrodectus hesperus) and investigated their evolution. We estimated expression of 97,217 L. hesperus transcripts in venom glands relative to silk and cephalothorax tissues. We identified 695 venom gland specific transcripts (VSTs), many of which BLAST and GO term analyses indicate may function as toxins or their delivery agents. ~38% of VSTs had BLAST hits, including latrotoxins, inhibitor cystine knot toxins, CRISPs, hyaluronidases, chitinase, and proteases, and 59% of VSTs had predicted protein domains. Latrotoxins are venom toxins that cause massive neurotransmitter release from vertebrate or invertebrate neurons. We discovered ≥ 20 divergent latrotoxin paralogs expressed in L. hesperus venom glands, significantly increasing this biomedically important family. Mass spectrometry of L. hesperus venom identified 49 proteins from VSTs, 24 of which BLAST to toxins. Phylogenetic analyses showed venom gland specific gene family expansions and shifts in tissue expression. Quantitative expression analyses comparing multiple tissues are necessary to identify venom gland specific transcripts. We present a black widow venom specific exome that uncovers a trove of diverse toxins and associated proteins, suggesting a dynamic evolutionary history. This justifies a reevaluation of the functional activities of black widow venom in light of its emerging complexity.

The Relationship Between Soldier Performance on the Two-Mile Run and the 20-m Shuttle Run Test.

PubMed

Canino, Maria C; Cohen, Bruce S; Redmond, Jan E; Sharp, Marilyn A; Zambraski, Edward J; Foulis, Stephen A

2018-05-01

The 20-m shuttle run test (MSRT) is a common field test used to measure aerobic fitness in controlled environments. The U.S. Army currently assesses aerobic fitness with the two-mile run (TMR), but external factors may impact test performance. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the Army Physical Fitness Test TMR performance and the MSRT in military personnel. A group of 531 (403 males and 128 females) active duty soldiers (age: 24.0 ± 4.1 years) performed the MSRT in an indoor facility. Heart rate was monitored for the duration of the test. Post-heart rate and age-predicted maximal heart rate were utilized to determine near-maximal performance on the MSRT. The soldiers provided their most recent Army Physical Fitness Test TMR time (min). A Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were performed to examine the relationship between TMR time (min) and MSRT score (total number of shuttles completed). The study was approved by the Human Use Review Committee at the U.S. Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine, Natick, Massachusetts. A significant, negative correlation exists between TMR time and MSRT score (r = -0.75, p < 0.001). Sex and MSRT score significantly predicted TMR time (adjusted R2 = 0.65, standard error of estimate = 0.97, p < 0.001) with a 95% ratio limits of agreement of ±12.6%. The resulting equation is: TMR = 17.736-2.464 × (sex) - 0.050 × (MSRT) - 0.026 × (MSRT × sex) for predicted TMR time. Males equal zero, females equal one, and MSRT score is the total number of shuttles completed. The MSRT is a strong predictor of the TMR and should be considered as a diagnostic tool when assessing aerobic fitness in active duty soldiers.

Can early host responses to mycobacterial infection predict eventual disease outcomes?

PubMed

de Silva, Kumudika; Begg, Douglas J; Plain, Karren M; Purdie, Auriol C; Kawaji, Satoko; Dhand, Navneet K; Whittington, Richard J

2013-11-01

Diagnostic tests used for Johne's disease in sheep either have poor sensitivity and specificity or only detect disease in later stages of infection. Predicting which of the infected sheep are likely to become infectious later in life is currently not feasible and continues to be a major hindrance in disease control. We conducted this longitudinal study to investigate if a suite of diagnostic tests conducted in Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) exposed lambs at 4 months post infection can accurately predict their clinical status at 12 months post infection. We tracked cellular and humoral responses and quantity of MAP shedding for up to 12 months post challenge in 20 controls and 37 exposed sheep. Infection was defined at necropsy by tissue culture and disease spectrum by lesion type. Data were analysed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression models and a subset of variables from the earliest period post inoculation (4 months) was selected for predicting disease outcomes later on (12 months). Sensitivity and specificity of tests and their combinations in series and parallel were determined. Early elevation in faecal MAP DNA quantity and a lower interferon gamma (IFNγ) response were significantly associated with sheep becoming infectious as well as progressing to severe disease. Conversely, early low faecal MAP DNA and higher interleukin-10 responses were significantly associated with an exposed animal developing protective immunity. Combination of early elevated faecal MAP DNA or lower IFNγ response had the highest sensitivity (75%) and specificity (81%) for identifying sheep that would become infectious. Collectively, these results highlight the potential for combined test interpretation to aid in the early prediction of sheep susceptibility to MAP infection. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relating lab to life: Decrements in attention over time predict math productivity among children with ADHD.

PubMed

Fosco, Whitney D; Hawk, Larry W

2017-02-01

A child's ability to sustain attention over time (AOT) is critical in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), yet no prior work has examined the extent to which a child's decrement in AOT on laboratory tasks relates to clinically-relevant behavior. The goal of this study is to provide initial evidence for the criterion validity of laboratory assessments of AOT. A total of 20 children with ADHD (7-12 years of age) who were enrolled in a summer treatment program completed two lab attention tasks (a continuous performance task and a self-paced choice discrimination task) and math seatwork. Analyses focused on relations between attention task parameters and math productivity. Individual differences in overall attention (OA) measures (averaged across time) accounted for 23% of the variance in math productivity, supporting the criterion validity of lab measures of attention. The criterion validity was enhanced by consideration of changes in AOT. Performance on all laboratory attention measures deteriorated as time-on-task increased, and individual differences in the decrement in AOT accounted for 40% of the variance in math productivity. The only variable to uniquely predict math productivity was from the self-paced choice discrimination task. This study suggests that attention tasks in the lab do predict a clinically-relevant target behavior in children with ADHD, supporting their use as a means to study attention processes in a controlled environment. Furthermore, this prediction is improved when attention is examined as a function of time-on-task and when the attentional demands are consistent between lab and life contexts.

Evidence for the Continuous Latent Structure of Mania in the Epidemiologic Catchment Area from Multiple Latent Structure and Construct Validation Methodologies

PubMed Central

Prisciandaro, James J.; Roberts, John E.

2011-01-01

Background Although psychiatric diagnostic systems have conceptualized mania as a discrete phenomenon, appropriate latent structure investigations testing this conceptualization are lacking. In contrast to these diagnostic systems, several influential theories of mania have suggested a continuous conceptualization. The present study examined whether mania has a continuous or discrete latent structure using a comprehensive approach including taxometric, information-theoretic latent distribution modeling (ITLDM), and predictive validity methodologies in the Epidemiologic Catchment Area (ECA) study. Methods Eight dichotomous manic symptom items were submitted to a variety of latent structural analyses; including factor analyses, taxometric procedures, and ITLDM; in 10,105 ECA community participants. Additionally, a variety of continuous and discrete models of mania were compared in terms of their relative abilities to predict outcomes (i.e., health service utilization, internalizing and externalizing disorders, and suicidal behavior). Results Taxometric and ITLDM analyses consistently supported a continuous conceptualization of mania. In ITLDM analyses, a continuous model of mania demonstrated 6:52:1 odds over the best fitting latent class model of mania. Factor analyses suggested that the continuous structure of mania was best represented by a single latent factor. Predictive validity analyses demonstrated a consistent superior ability of continuous models of mania relative to discrete models. Conclusions The present study provided three independent lines of support for a continuous conceptualization of mania. The implications of a continuous model of mania are discussed. PMID:20507671

Mortality of atomic bomb survivors predicted from laboratory animals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carnes, Bruce A.; Grahn, Douglas; Hoel, David

2003-01-01

Exposure, pathology and mortality data for mice, dogs and humans were examined to determine whether accurate interspecies predictions of radiation-induced mortality could be achieved. The analyses revealed that (1) days of life lost per unit dose can be estimated for a species even without information on radiation effects in that species, and (2) accurate predictions of age-specific radiation-induced mortality in beagles and the atomic bomb survivors can be obtained from a dose-response model for comparably exposed mice. These findings illustrate the value of comparative mortality analyses and the relevance of animal data to the study of human health effects.

Arylamine N-acetyltransferase 2 gene polymorphism in an Algerian population.

PubMed

Chelouti, Hiba; Khelil, Malika

2017-09-01

The arylamine N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) is a key enzyme in the biotransformation of xenobiotics. NAT2 gene polymorphisms have been associated with the risk of isoniazid hepatotoxicity and these polymorphisms change among different populations. The objective of this study is to investigate NAT2 polymorphisms in order to predict the prevalence of NAT2 phenotype in an Algerian population. Genotyping of NAT2 was done using a PCR-RFLP method. Haplotype was analysed using the software package PHASE, version 2.0. The major haplotypes were NAT2*5B (23.72%), NAT2*6 A (18.61%), NAT2*4 (14.60%) and NAT2*5 F (10%). The average of the expected slow acetylator phenotype was 53%. Our results suggest that the high frequency of slow acetylator phenotype requires investigation into its possible association with ATDH.

Rates of change of the earth's magnetic field measured by recent analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, C. G. A.; Huang, Qilin

1990-01-01

Typical rates of change of the earth's magnetic field are presented as a function of the earth's spherical harmonics. Harmonics up to the eight degree are analyzed. With the increase in the degree of the harmonics an increase in the relative rate of change can be observed. For higher degrees, the rate of change can be predicted. This enables a differentiation between harmonics originating in the core and harmonics caused by crustal magnetization. The westward drift of the magnetic field depends on the longitudinal gradient of the field. In order to determine the longitudinal motions, harmonics up to degree 20 can be utilized. The average rate of secular acceleration increases with the degree of harmonics from 0.001 deg/sq yr for a dipole term to an average of 0.05 deg/sq yr for degree eight harmonics.

Genetic mapping and predictive testing for multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pandit, S.D.; Read, C.; Liu, L.

1994-09-01

Multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1) is an autosomal dominant disorder with an estimated prevalance of 20-200 per million persons. It is characterized by the combined occurence of tumors involving two or more endocrine glands, namely the parathyroid glands, the endocrine pancreas and the anterior pituitary. This disorder affects virtually all age groups with an average range of 20-60 years. Linkage analysis mapped the MEN1 locus to 11q13 near the human muscle glycogen phosphorylase (PYGM) locus. Additional genetic mapping and deletion analysis studies have refined the region containing the MEN1 locus to a 3 cM interval flanked by markers PYGMmore » and D11S146/D11S97, a physical distance of approximately 1.5 Mb. We have identified 8 large families segregating MEN1 (71 affected from a population of 389 individuals). A high resolution reference map for the 11q13 region has been constructed using four new microsatellite markers, the CEPH reference (40 family) pedigree resource, and the CRI-MAP program package. Subsequent analyses using the LINKAGE program package and 8 MEN 1 families placed the MEN1 locus within the context of the microsatellite map. This map was used to develop a linkage-based predictive test. These markers have also been used to further refine the interval containing the MEN1 locus from the study of chromosome deletions (loss of heterozygosity, LOH studies) in paired sets of tumor and germline DNA from 87 MEN 1 affected individuals.« less

Anxious Personality Predicts an Increased Risk of Parkinson’s Disease

PubMed Central

Bower, James H.; Grossardt, Brandon R.; Maraganore, Demetrius M.; Ahlskog, J. Eric; Colligan, Robert C.; Geda, Yonas E.; Therneau, Terry M.; Rocca, Walter A.

2011-01-01

We studied the association of three personality traits related to neuroticism with the subsequent risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD) using a historical cohort study. We included 7,216 subjects who resided within the 120-mile radius centered in Rochester, MN, at the time they completed the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) for research at the Mayo Clinic from 1962–1965. We considered three MMPI personality scales (pessimistic, anxious, and depressive traits). A total of 6,822 subjects (94.5%) were followed over 4 decades either actively or passively. During follow-up, 227 subjects developed parkinsonism (156 developed PD). An anxious personality was associated with an increased risk of PD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16–2.27). A pessimistic personality trait was also associated with an increased risk of PD but only in men (HR = 1.92; 95% CI = 1.20–3.07). By contrast, a depressive trait was not associated with increased risk. Analyses combining scores from the three personality scales into a composite neuroticism score showed an association of neuroticism with PD (HR = 1.54; 95% CI = 1.10–2.16). The association with neuroticism remained significant even when the MMPI was administered early in life (ages 20–39 years). By contrast, none of the three personality traits was associated with the risk of non-PD types of parkinsonism grouped together. Our long-term historical cohort study suggests that an anxious personality trait may predict an increased risk of PD developing many years later. PMID:20669309

Low serum level of COMP, a cartilage turnover marker, predicts rapid and high ACR70 response to adalimumab therapy in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Morozzi, G; Fabbroni, M; Bellisai, F; Cucini, S; Simpatico, A; Galeazzi, M

2007-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate serum biomarkers, used in clinical routine, to predict the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) response to long-term anti-TNF alpha treatment (adalimumab). Sera from 29 consecutive rheumatoid arthritis patients were analysed for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP), cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP) and IgM and IgA RFs (class-specific rheumatoid factors) at the start of treatment with adalimumab and after 3, 6 and 12 months. The response to the therapy was evaluated by ACR 20, 50, 70 and by DAS 28 scores. The mean serum COMP level of the population did not change after treatment. However, patients with low serum COMP levels (<10 U/l) at baseline showed a significant (p<0.02) higher ACR70 response (>50%) within 3 months, and also at 6 months, than patients with higher COMP values (ACR70<20%). This was also reflected by significantly higher decrease in DAS score at 3 (p<0.02) and 6 months (p<0.01) treatments. The IgM RF titre decreased significantly (p=0.02) after the therapy, but the percentage of serum positivity for anti-CCP and IgA/IgM RF did not change. No significant correlation was shown between serum COMP levels and C-reactive protein/erythrocyte sedimentation rate during the follow-up. Neither were any correlations shown between ACR/DAS 28 scores and anti-CCP, Ig M/IgA RFs. Our data indicate that low (<10 U/l) serum COMP before starting anti-TNF alpha treatment predicts a rapid (within 3 months) and high ACR70 response compared to RA patients with higher COMP values. This might reflect different mechanisms in the cartilage process in the RA disease at that time of treatment with different therapeutic sensitivity to anti-TNF alpha treatment.

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K.; Keyser, D. A.; Mccumber, M. C.

1983-01-01

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Broadband rotor noise analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

George, A. R.; Chou, S. T.

1984-01-01

The various mechanisms which generate broadband noise on a range of rotors studied include load fluctuations due to inflow turbulence, due to turbulent boundary layers passing the blades' trailing edges, and due to tip vortex formation. Existing analyses are used and extensions to them are developed to make more accurate predictions of rotor noise spectra and to determine which mechanisms are important in which circumstances. Calculations based on the various prediction methods in existing experiments were compared. The present analyses are adequate to predict the spectra from a wide variety of experiments on fans, full scale and model scale helicopter rotors, wind turbines, and propellers to within about 5 to 10 dB. Better knowledge of the inflow turbulence improves the accuracy of the predictions. Results indicate that inflow turbulence noise depends strongly on ambient conditions and dominates at low frequencies. Trailing edge noise and tip vortex noise are important at higher frequencies if inflow turbulence is weak. Boundary layer trailing edge noise, important, for large sized rotors, increases slowly with angle of attack but not as rapidly as tip vortex noise.

Psychopathy and criminal violence: the moderating effect of ethnicity.

PubMed

Walsh, Zach

2013-10-01

This study aimed to determine the cross-ethnic stability of the predictive relationship of psychopathy for violence. Participants were 424 adult male jail inmates. Psychopathy was assessed using the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised and criminal violence was assessed using a comprehensive database of arrests for violent crimes. Ethnic categories included the groups that make up the vast majority of U.S. inmates: European American (EA, n = 166), African American (AA, n = 174), and Latino American (LA, n = 84). Ethnically aggregated Cox regression survival analyses identified predictive effects for psychopathy. Disaggregated analyses identified ethnic differences: Psychopathy was more strongly predictive of violence among EA (R² = .13, 95% CI [.04, .22], p < .01) relative to AA inmates (R² = .05, 95% CI [.00, .11], p < .01) and was not related to violence among LA participants (R² = .02, 95% CI [.00, .08], p = .22). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses yielded an equivalent pattern of results. These findings add to a growing literature suggesting cross-ethnic variability in the predictive power of psychopathy for violence. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Predicting Consumer Biomass, Size-Structure, Production, Catch Potential, Responses to Fishing and Associated Uncertainties in the World's Marine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Jennings, Simon; Collingridge, Kate

2015-01-01

Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world's oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1 kg) are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established ecological principles can support equitable analysis and comparison of diverse ecosystems. The analyses provide insights into the effects of parameter uncertainty on global biomass and production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented. Consequently, our simple models become increasingly less useful than more complex alternatives when addressing questions about food web structure and function, biodiversity, resilience and human impacts at smaller scales and for areas closer to coasts.

Coseismic fault slip associated with the 1992 M(sub w) 6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquake: Implications for the Joshua Tree-Landers earthquake sequence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bennett, Richard A.; Reilinger, Robert E.; Rodi, William; Li, Yingping; Toksoz, M. Nafi; Hudnut, Ken

1995-01-01

Coseismic surface deformation associated with the M(sub w) 6.1, April 23, 1992, Joshua Tree earthquake is well represented by estimates of geodetic monument displacements at 20 locations independently derived from Global Positioning System and trilateration measurements. The rms signal to noise ratio for these inferred displacements is 1.8 with near-fault displacement estimates exceeding 40 mm. In order to determine the long-wavelength distribution of slip over the plane of rupture, a Tikhonov regularization operator is applied to these estimates which minimizes stress variability subject to purely right-lateral slip and zero surface slip constraints. The resulting slip distribution yields a geodetic moment estimate of 1.7 x 10(exp 18) N m with corresponding maximum slip around 0.8 m and compares well with independent and complementary information including seismic moment and source time function estimates and main shock and aftershock locations. From empirical Green's functions analyses, a rupture duration of 5 s is obtained which implies a rupture radius of 6-8 km. Most of the inferred slip lies to the north of the hypocenter, consistent with northward rupture propagation. Stress drop estimates are in the range of 2-4 MPa. In addition, predicted Coulomb stress increases correlate remarkably well with the distribution of aftershock hypocenters; most of the aftershocks occur in areas for which the mainshock rupture produced stress increases larger than about 0.1 MPa. In contrast, predicted stress changes are near zero at the hypocenter of the M(sub w) 7.3, June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake which nucleated about 20 km beyond the northernmost edge of the Joshua Tree rupture. Based on aftershock migrations and the predicted static stress field, we speculate that redistribution of Joshua Tree-induced stress perturbations played a role in the spatio-temporal development of the earth sequence culminating in the Landers event.

Genome-scale transcriptional analyses of first-generation interspecific sunflower hybrids reveals broad regulatory compatibility

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Interspecific hybridization creates individuals harboring diverged genomes. The interaction of these genomes can generate successful evolutionary novelty or disadvantageous genomic conflict. Annual sunflowers Helianthus annuus and H. petiolaris have a rich history of hybridization in natural populations. Although first-generation hybrids generally have low fertility, hybrid swarms that include later generation and fully fertile backcross plants have been identified, as well as at least three independently-originated stable hybrid taxa. We examine patterns of transcript accumulation in the earliest stages of hybridization of these species via analyses of transcriptome sequences from laboratory-derived F1 offspring of an inbred H. annuus cultivar and a wild H. petiolaris accession. Results While nearly 14% of the reference transcriptome showed significant accumulation differences between parental accessions, total F1 transcript levels showed little evidence of dominance, as midparent transcript levels were highly predictive of transcript accumulation in F1 plants. Allelic bias in F1 transcript accumulation was detected in 20% of transcripts containing sufficient polymorphism to distinguish parental alleles; however the magnitude of these biases were generally smaller than differences among parental accessions. Conclusions While analyses of allelic bias suggest that cis regulatory differences between H. annuus and H. petiolaris are common, their effect on transcript levels may be more subtle than trans-acting regulatory differences. Overall, these analyses found little evidence of regulatory incompatibility or dominance interactions between parental genomes within F1 hybrid individuals, although it is unclear whether this is a legacy or an enabler of introgression between species. PMID:23701699

Neuropsychological correlates of cognitive, emotional-affective and auto-activation apathy in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Perri, Roberta; Turchetta, Chiara Stella; Caruso, Giulia; Fadda, Lucia; Caltagirone, Carlo; Carlesimo, Augusto Giovanni

2018-01-31

Apathy symptoms include different dimensions: cognitive (C), emotional-affective (E-Aff) and auto-activation; they have been related to dysfunctions of the dorsolateral, orbito-basal prefrontal cortex and the subcortical frontal connections to the basal ganglia, respectively. In Alzheimer's disease (AD), an association has been found between apathy severity and both executive deficits and atrophy of the dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex; however, it is not clear whether these associations concern only the cognitive aspects of apathy. Furthermore, whether there is an association in AD between E-aff apathy and theory of mind (ToM),the cognitive functions subsumed by the orbito-basal prefrontal cortex, has not been investigated. Aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between C, E-Aff and auto-activation apathy and performance on tasks investigating executive and ToM cognitive functions in AD. For this purpose, 20 AD patients with apathy and 20 matched controls were submitted to an executive and ToM neuropsychological assessment. Apathy was assessed with a weekly diary (ApD) created specifically to assist caregivers in quantifying the C, E-Aff and auto-activation symptomatology of apathy. Correlational analyses showed that AD patients' scores on the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST) and Emotion Attribution tasks were correlated with most ApD scores. However, regression analyses showed that C diary scores were predicted by MCST performance, E-Aff diary scores by performance on the E-Attribution task and ApD scores measuring auto-activation apathy were predicted by both the MCST and the Emotion Attribution scores. These results confirm the co-occurrence of apathy and executive-function deficits in AD and suggest a specific association between AD patients' executive deficits and the cognitive component of apathy. Furthermore, they document, for the first time, an association between poor performance on tests assessing ToM abilities and the emotional-affective component of apathy in AD patients. Finally, these results are in line with the view that auto-activation apathy reflects the sum of emotional and cognitive processing deficits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship between BOLD amplitude and pattern classification of orientation-selective activity in the human visual cortex.

PubMed

Tong, Frank; Harrison, Stephenie A; Dewey, John A; Kamitani, Yukiyasu

2012-11-15

Orientation-selective responses can be decoded from fMRI activity patterns in the human visual cortex, using multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA). To what extent do these feature-selective activity patterns depend on the strength and quality of the sensory input, and might the reliability of these activity patterns be predicted by the gross amplitude of the stimulus-driven BOLD response? Observers viewed oriented gratings that varied in luminance contrast (4, 20 or 100%) or spatial frequency (0.25, 1.0 or 4.0 cpd). As predicted, activity patterns in early visual areas led to better discrimination of orientations presented at high than low contrast, with greater effects of contrast found in area V1 than in V3. A second experiment revealed generally better decoding of orientations at low or moderate as compared to high spatial frequencies. Interestingly however, V1 exhibited a relative advantage at discriminating high spatial frequency orientations, consistent with the finer scale of representation in the primary visual cortex. In both experiments, the reliability of these orientation-selective activity patterns was well predicted by the average BOLD amplitude in each region of interest, as indicated by correlation analyses, as well as decoding applied to a simple model of voxel responses to simulated orientation columns. Moreover, individual differences in decoding accuracy could be predicted by the signal-to-noise ratio of an individual's BOLD response. Our results indicate that decoding accuracy can be well predicted by incorporating the amplitude of the BOLD response into simple simulation models of cortical selectivity; such models could prove useful in future applications of fMRI pattern classification. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship between BOLD amplitude and pattern classification of orientation-selective activity in the human visual cortex

PubMed Central

Tong, Frank; Harrison, Stephenie A.; Dewey, John A.; Kamitani, Yukiyasu

2012-01-01

Orientation-selective responses can be decoded from fMRI activity patterns in the human visual cortex, using multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA). To what extent do these feature-selective activity patterns depend on the strength and quality of the sensory input, and might the reliability of these activity patterns be predicted by the gross amplitude of the stimulus-driven BOLD response? Observers viewed oriented gratings that varied in luminance contrast (4, 20 or 100%) or spatial frequency (0.25, 1.0 or 4.0 cpd). As predicted, activity patterns in early visual areas led to better discrimination of orientations presented at high than low contrast, with greater effects of contrast found in area V1 than in V3. A second experiment revealed generally better decoding of orientations at low or moderate as compared to high spatial frequencies. Interestingly however, V1 exhibited a relative advantage at discriminating high spatial frequency orientations, consistent with the finer scale of representation in the primary visual cortex. In both experiments, the reliability of these orientation-selective activity patterns was well predicted by the average BOLD amplitude in each region of interest, as indicated by correlation analyses, as well as decoding applied to a simple model of voxel responses to simulated orientation columns. Moreover, individual differences in decoding accuracy could be predicted by the signal-to-noise ratio of an individual's BOLD response. Our results indicate that decoding accuracy can be well predicted by incorporating the amplitude of the BOLD response into simple simulation models of cortical selectivity; such models could prove useful in future applications of fMRI pattern classification. PMID:22917989

Retrospective evaluation of a method to predict fresh-frozen plasma dosage in anticoagulated patients.

PubMed

Frazee, Lawrence A; Bourguet, Claire C; Gutierrez, Wilson; Elder-Arrington, Jacinta; Elackattu, Alphi E P; Haller, Nairmeen Awad

2008-01-01

In the United States, fresh-frozen plasma (FFP) is commonly used for urgent reversal of warfarin; however, dosage recommendations are difficult to find. If validated, a proposed method that uses a nonlinear relationship between international normalized ratio (INR) and clotting factor activity (CFa) would be useful. This study retrospectively evaluated a proposed equation with adult medical inpatients who received FFP for warfarin reversal. For each patient the equation was used to predict the dose of FFP required to achieve the observed change in INR, which was then compared to the actual dose. The equation was considered successful if the predicted dose was within +/-20% of the actual dose. Subgroup analyses included subjects who received concomitant vitamin K; subjects with supratherapeutic INRs (>3); and subjects with significantly elevated INRs (>5). Of the 209 patients screened, 91 met criteria for inclusion in the study. Use of the equation to calculate the predicted dose of FFP was successful in 11 patients (12.1%) with use of actual body weight for prediction and in 23 patients (25.3%) with use of ideal body weight (P = 0.02). The equation performed similarly in all subgroups analyzed. The mean predicted FFP dose was significantly greater than the actual dose in all patients when actual body weight was used (925.2 mL vs. 620.6 mL; P < 0.001). Least-squares regression modeling of repeat INR (converted to CFa) produced a model that accounted for 57% of the variance in repeat INR. The value predicted from the model was closer to the actual CFa than was the value predicted from the published equation in every comparison, but it was statistically different only when actual body weight was used. This study revealed that a published equation for calculation of FFP dose to reverse oral anticoagulation resulted in doses that were significantly higher than the actual dose. Use of ideal body weight improved accuracy but was still not successful for the majority of patients. Until trials are able to prospectively demonstrate the accuracy of a dose-prediction model for FFP, dosing will remain largely empiric.

Integrated modeling and analysis of a space-truss article

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stockwell, Alan E.; Perez, Sharon E.; Pappa, Richard S.

1990-01-01

MSC/NASTRAN is being used in the Controls-Structures Interaction (CSI) program at NASA Langley Research Center as a key analytical tool for structural analysis as well as the basis for control law development, closed-loop performance evaluation, and system safety checks. Guest investigators from academia and industry are performing dynamics and control experiments on a flight-like deployable space truss called Mini-Mast to determine the effectiveness of various active-vibration control laws. MSC/NASTRAN was used to calculate natural frequencies and mode shapes below 100 Hz to describe the dynamics of the 20-meter-long lightweight Mini-Mast structure. Gravitational effects contribute significantly to structural stiffness and are accounted for through a two-phase solution in which the differential stiffness matrix is calculated and then used in the eigensolution. Reduced modal models are extracted for control law design and evaluation of closed-loop system performance. Predicted actuator forces from controls simulations are then applied to the extended model to predict member loads and stresses. These pre-test analyses reduce risks associated with the structural integrity of the test article, which is a major concern in closed-loop control experiments due to potential instabilities.

Loss of epithelial FAM20A in mice causes amelogenesis imperfecta, tooth eruption delay and gingival overgrowth.

PubMed

Li, Li-Li; Liu, Pei-Hong; Xie, Xiao-Hua; Ma, Su; Liu, Chao; Chen, Li; Qin, Chun-Lin

2016-06-30

FAM20A has been studied to a very limited extent. Mutations in human FAM20A cause amelogenesis imperfecta, gingival fibromatosis and kidney problems. It would be desirable to systemically analyse the expression of FAM20A in dental tissues and to assess the pathological changes when this molecule is specifically nullified in individual tissues. Recently, we generated mice with a Fam20A-floxed allele containing the beta-galactosidase reporter gene. We analysed FAM20A expression in dental tissues using X-Gal staining, immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization, which showed that the ameloblasts in the mouse mandibular first molar began to express FAM20A at 1 day after birth, and the reduced enamel epithelium in erupting molars expressed a significant level of FAM20A. By breeding K14-Cre mice with Fam20A(flox/flox) mice, we created K14-Cre;Fam20A(flox/flox) (conditional knock out, cKO) mice, in which Fam20A was inactivated in the epithelium. We analysed the dental tissues of cKO mice using X-ray radiography, histology and immunohistochemistry. The molar enamel matrix in cKO mice was much thinner than normal and was often separated from the dentinoenamel junction. The Fam20A-deficient ameloblasts were non-polarized and disorganized and were detached from the enamel matrix. The enamel abnormality in cKO mice was consistent with the diagnosis of amelogenesis imperfecta. The levels of enamelin and matrix metalloproteinase 20 were lower in the ameloblasts and enamel of cKO mice than the normal mice. The cKO mice had remarkable delays in the eruption of molars and hyperplasia of the gingival epithelium. The findings emphasize the essential roles of FAM20A in the development of dental and oral tissues.

A novel health indicator for on-line lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yapeng; Huang, Miaohua; Chen, Yupu; Tao, Ye

2016-07-01

Prediction of lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life (RUL) plays an important role in an intelligent battery management system. The capacity and internal resistance are often used as the batteries health indicator (HI) for quantifying degradation and predicting RUL. However, on-line measurement of capacity and internal resistance are hardly realizable due to the not fully charged and discharged condition and the extremely expensive cost, respectively. Therefore, there is a great need to find an optional way to deal with this plight. In this work, a novel HI is extracted from the operating parameters of lithium-ion batteries for degradation modeling and RUL prediction. Moreover, Box-Cox transformation is employed to improve HI performance. Then Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses are utilized to evaluate the similarity between real capacity and the estimated capacity derived from the HI. Next, both simple statistical regression technique and optimized relevance vector machine are employed to predict the RUL based on the presented HI. The correlation analyses and prediction results show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed HI for battery degradation modeling and RUL prediction.

Developing leading indicators from OHS management audit data: Determining the measurement properties of audit data from the field.

PubMed

Robson, Lynda S; Ibrahim, Selahadin; Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah; Steenstra, Ivan A; Van Eerd, Dwayne; Amick, Benjamin C

2017-06-01

OHS management audits are one means of obtaining data that may serve as leading indicators. The measurement properties of such data are therefore important. This study used data from Workwell audit program in Ontario, a Canadian province. The audit instrument consisted of 122 items related to 17 OHS management elements. The study sought answers regarding (a) the ability of audit-based scores to predict workers' compensation claims outcomes, (b) structural characteristics of the data in relation to the organization of the audit instrument, and (c) internal consistency of items within audit elements. The sample consisted of audit and claims data from 1240 unique firms that had completed one or two OHS management audits during 2007-2010. Predictors derived from the audit results were used in multivariable negative binomial regression modeling of workers' compensation claims outcomes. Confirmatory factor analyses were used to examine the instrument's structural characteristics. Kuder-Richardson coefficients of internal consistency were calculated for each audit element. The ability of audit scores to predict subsequent claims data could not be established. Factor analysis supported the audit instrument's element-based structure. KR-20 values were high (≥0.83). The Workwell audit data display structural validity and high internal consistency, but not, to date, construct validity, since the audit scores are generally not predictive of subsequent firm claim experience. Audit scores should not be treated as leading indicators of workplace OHS performance without supporting empirical data. Analyses of the measurement properties of audit data can inform decisionmakers about the operation of an audit program, possible future directions in audit instrument development, and the appropriate use of audit data. In particular, decision-makers should be cautious in their use of audit scores as leading indicators, in the absence of supporting empirical data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: The CHARGE risk score project

PubMed Central

Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O’Donnell, Christopher J.; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B.; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F.; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G.; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; DeStefano, Anita L.; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A.; DeCarli, Charles; Ikram, M. Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, WT; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score (FSRS), prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with stroke and its risk factors. Methods The study includes four population-based cohorts with 2,047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged 55 years and older, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRS were constructed with 324 SNPs implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with Area under the curve (AUC) statistics comparing the GRS to age sex, and FSRS models, and with reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke (IS). Results In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the FSRS, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (All stroke: Δjoint AUC =0.016, p-value=2.3*10-6; IS: Δ joint AUC =0.021, p-value=3.7*10−7), although the overall AUC remained low. In all studies there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (p-values <10−4). Conclusions The SNPs associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared to the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke. PMID:24436238

A Landscape-based model for predicting Mycobacterium ulcerans infection (Buruli Ulcer disease) presence in Benin, West Africa.

PubMed

Wagner, Tyler; Benbow, M Eric; Burns, Meghan; Johnson, R Christian; Merritt, Richard W; Qi, Jiaguo; Small, Pamela L C

2008-03-01

Mycobacterium ulcerans infection (Buruli ulcer [BU] disease) is an emerging tropical disease that causes severe morbidity in many communities, especially those in close proximity to aquatic environments. Research and control efforts are severely hampered by the paucity of data regarding the ecology of this disease; for example, the vectors and modes of transmission remain unknown. It is hypothesized that BU presence is associated with altered landscapes that perturb aquatic ecosystems; however, this has yet to be quantified over large spatial scales. We quantified relationships between land use/land cover (LULC) characteristics surrounding individual villages and BU presence in Benin, West Africa. We also examined the effects of other village-level characteristics which we hypothesized to affect BU presence, such as village distance to the nearest river. We found that as the percent urban land use in a 50-km buffer surrounding a village increased, the probability of BU presence decreased. Conversely, as the percent agricultural land use in a 20-km buffer surrounding a village increased, the probability of BU presence increased. Landscape-based models had predictive ability when predicting BU presence using validation data sets from Benin and Ghana, West Africa. Our analyses suggest that relatively small amounts of urbanization are associated with a decrease in the probability of BU presence, and we hypothesize that this is due to the increased availability of pumped water in urban environments. Our models provide an initial approach to predicting the probability of BU presence over large spatial scales in Benin and Ghana, using readily available land use data.