Experimental Concepts for Testing Seismic Hazard Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, W.; Jordan, T. H.

2015-12-01

Seismic hazard analysis is the primary interface through which useful information about earthquake rupture and wave propagation is delivered to society. To account for the randomness (aleatory variability) and limited knowledge (epistemic uncertainty) of these natural processes, seismologists must formulate and test hazard models using the concepts of probability. In this presentation, we will address the scientific objections that have been raised over the years against probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Owing to the paucity of observations, we must rely on expert opinion to quantify the epistemic uncertainties of PSHA models (e.g., in the weighting of individual models from logic-tree ensembles of plausible models). The main theoretical issue is a frequentist critique: subjectivity is immeasurable; ergo, PSHA models cannot be objectively tested against data; ergo, they are fundamentally unscientific. We have argued (PNAS, 111, 11973-11978) that the Bayesian subjectivity required for casting epistemic uncertainties can be bridged with the frequentist objectivity needed for pure significance testing through "experimental concepts." An experimental concept specifies collections of data, observed and not yet observed, that are judged to be exchangeable (i.e., with a joint distribution independent of the data ordering) when conditioned on a set of explanatory variables. We illustrate, through concrete examples, experimental concepts useful in the testing of PSHA models for ontological errors in the presence of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty. In particular, we describe experimental concepts that lead to exchangeable binary sequences that are statistically independent but not identically distributed, showing how the Bayesian concept of exchangeability generalizes the frequentist concept of experimental repeatability. We also address the issue of testing PSHA models using spatially correlated data.

Reply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhenming; Shi, Baoping; Kiefer, John D.; Woolery, Edward W.

2004-06-01

Musson's comments on our article, ``Communicating with uncertainty: A critical issue with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis'' are an example of myths and misunderstandings. We did not say that probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a bad method, but we did say that it has some limitations that have significant implications. Our response to these comments follows. There is no consensus on exactly how to select seismological parameters and to assign weights in PSHA. This was one of the conclusions reached by a senior seismic hazard analysis committee [SSHAC, 1997] that included C. A. Cornell, founder of the PSHA methodology. The SSHAC report was reviewed by a panel of the National Research Council and was well accepted by seismologists and engineers. As an example of the lack of consensus, Toro and Silva [2001] produced seismic hazard maps for the central United States region that are quite different from those produced by Frankel et al. [2002] because they used different input seismological parameters and weights (see Table 1). We disagree with Musson's conclusion that ``because a method may be applied badly on one occasion does not mean the method itself is bad.'' We do not say that the method is poor, but rather that those who use PSHA need to document their inputs and communicate them fully to the users. It seems that Musson is trying to create myth by suggesting his own methods should be used.

The effect of alternative seismotectonic models on PSHA results - a sensitivity study for two sites in Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avital, Matan; Kamai, Ronnie; Davis, Michael; Dor, Ory

2018-02-01

We present a full probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) sensitivity analysis for two sites in southern Israel - one in the near field of a major fault system and one farther away. The PSHA analysis is conducted for alternative source representations, using alternative model parameters for the main seismic sources, such as slip rate and Mmax, among others. The analysis also considers the effect of the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) on the hazard results. In this way, the two types of epistemic uncertainty - modelling uncertainty and parametric uncertainty - are treated and addressed. We quantify the uncertainty propagation by testing its influence on the final calculated hazard, such that the controlling knowledge gaps are identified and can be treated in future studies. We find that current practice in Israel, as represented by the current version of the building code, grossly underestimates the hazard, by approximately 40 % in short return periods (e.g. 10 % in 50 years) and by as much as 150 % in long return periods (e.g. 10E-5). The analysis shows that this underestimation is most probably due to a combination of factors, including source definitions as well as the GMPE used for analysis.

Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2016-04-01

Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition, the flexibility of NDSHA allows for generation of ground shaking maps at specified long-term return times, which may permit a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps in terms of average rates of exceedance for specified time windows. The comparison of NDSHA and PSHA maps, particularly for very long recurrence times, may indicate to what extent probabilistic ground shaking estimates are consistent with those from physical models of seismic waves propagation. A systematic comparison over the territory of Italy is carried out exploiting the uniqueness of the Italian earthquake catalogue, a data set covering more than a millennium (a time interval about ten times longer than that available in most of the regions worldwide) with a satisfactory completeness level for M>5, which warrants the results of analysis. By analysing in some detail seismicity in the Vrancea region, we show that well constrained macroseismic field information for individual earthquakes may provide useful information about the reliability of ground shaking estimates. Finally, in order to generalise observations, the comparative analysis is extended to further regions where both standard NDSHA and PSHA maps are available (e.g. State of Gujarat, India). The final Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project maps, along with other national scale probabilistic maps, all obtained by PSHA, are considered for this comparative analysis.

Uncertainties in evaluation of hazard and seismic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen; Manea, Elena-Florinela

2015-04-01

Two methods are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment: probabilistic (PSHA) and deterministic(DSHA) seismic hazard analysis.Selection of a ground motion for engineering design requires a clear understanding of seismic hazard and risk among stakeholders, seismologists and engineers. What is wrong with traditional PSHA or DSHA ? PSHA common used in engineering is using four assumptions developed by Cornell in 1968:(1)-Constant-in-time average occurrence rate of earthquakes; (2)-Single point source; (3).Variability of ground motion at a site is independent;(4)-Poisson(or "memory - less") behavior of earthquake occurrences. It is a probabilistic method and "when the causality dies, its place is taken by probability, prestigious term meant to define the inability of us to predict the course of nature"(Nils Bohr). DSHA method was used for the original design of Fukushima Daichii, but Japanese authorities moved to probabilistic assessment methods and the probability of exceeding of the design basis acceleration was expected to be 10-4-10-6 . It was exceeded and it was a violation of the principles of deterministic hazard analysis (ignoring historical events)(Klügel,J,U, EGU,2014, ISSO). PSHA was developed from mathematical statistics and is not based on earthquake science(invalid physical models- point source and Poisson distribution; invalid mathematics; misinterpretation of annual probability of exceeding or return period etc.) and become a pure numerical "creation" (Wang, PAGEOPH.168(2011),11-25). An uncertainty which is a key component for seismic hazard assessment including both PSHA and DSHA is the ground motion attenuation relationship or the so-called ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) which describes a relationship between a ground motion parameter (i.e., PGA,MMI etc.), earthquake magnitude M, source to site distance R, and an uncertainty. So far, no one is taking into consideration strong nonlinear behavior of soils during of strong earthquakes. But, how many cities, villages, metropolitan areas etc. in seismic regions are constructed on rock? Most of them are located on soil deposits? A soil is of basic type sand or gravel (termed coarse soils), silt or clay (termed fine soils) etc. The effect on nonlinearity is very large. For example, if we maintain the same spectral amplification factor (SAF=5.8942) as for relatively strong earthquake on May 3,1990(MW=6.4),then at Bacǎu seismic station for Vrancea earthquake on May 30,1990 (MW =6.9) the peak acceleration has to be a*max =0.154g and the actual recorded was only, amax =0.135g(-14.16%). Also, for Vrancea earthquake on August 30,1986(MW=7.1),the peak acceleration has to be a*max = 0.107g instead of real value recorded of 0.0736 g(- 45.57%). There are many data for more than 60 seismic stations. There is a strong nonlinear dependence of SAF with earthquake magnitude in each site. The authors are coming with an alternative approach called "real spectral amplification factors" instead of GMPE for all extra-Carpathian area where all cities and villages are located on soil deposits. Key words: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard; Uncertainties; Nonlinear seismology; Spectral amplification factors(SAF).

Comment on "How can seismic hazard around the New Madrid seismic zone be similar to that in California?" by Arthur Frankel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Z.; Shi, B.; Kiefer, J.D.

2005-01-01

PSHA is the method used most to assess seismic hazards for input into various aspects of public and financial policy. For example, PSHA was used by the U.S. Geological Survey to develop the National Seismic Hazard Maps (Frankel et al., 1996, 2002). These maps are the basis for many national, state, and local seismic safety regulations and design standards, such as the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, the International Building Code, and the International Residential Code. Adoption and implementation of these regulations and design standards would have significant impacts on many communities in the New Madrid area, including Memphis, Tennessee and Paducah, Kentucky. Although "mitigating risks to society from earthquakes involves economic and policy issues" (Stein, 2004), seismic hazard assessment is the basis. Seismologists should provide the best information on seismic hazards and communicate them to users and policy makers. There is a lack of effort in communicating the uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment in the central U.S., however. Use of 10%, 5%, and 2% PE in 50 years causes confusion in communicating seismic hazard assessment. It would be easy to discuss and understand the design ground motions if the true meaning of the ground motion derived from PSHA were presented, i.e., the ground motion with the estimated uncertainty or the associated confidence level.

Physical limits on ground motion at Yucca Mountain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.; Hanks, T.C.; Whitney, J.W.

2007-01-01

Physical limits on possible maximum ground motion at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the designated site of a high-level radioactive waste repository, are set by the shear stress available in the seismogenic depth of the crust and by limits on stress change that can propagate through the medium. We find in dynamic deterministic 2D calculations that maximum possible horizontal peak ground velocity (PGV) at the underground repository site is 3.6 m/sec, which is smaller than the mean PGV predicted by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) at annual exceedance probabilities less than 10-6 per year. The physical limit on vertical PGV, 5.7 m/sec, arises from supershear rupture and is larger than that from the PSHA down to 10-8 per year. In addition to these physical limits, we also calculate the maximum ground motion subject to the constraint of known fault slip at the surface, as inferred from paleoseismic studies. Using a published probabilistic fault displacement hazard curve, these calculations provide a probabilistic hazard curve for horizontal PGV that is lower than that from the PSHA. In all cases the maximum ground motion at the repository site is found by maximizing constructive interference of signals from the rupture front, for physically realizable rupture velocity, from all parts of the fault. Vertical PGV is maximized for ruptures propagating near the P-wave speed, and horizontal PGV is maximized for ruptures propagating near the Rayleigh-wave speed. Yielding in shear with a Mohr-Coulomb yield condition reduces ground motion only a modest amount in events with supershear rupture velocity, because ground motion consists primarily of P waves in that case. The possibility of compaction of the porous unsaturated tuffs at the higher ground-motion levels is another attenuating mechanism that needs to be investigated.

Research on response spectrum of dam based on scenario earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Yushan

2017-10-01

Taking a large hydropower station as an example, the response spectrum based on scenario earthquake is determined. Firstly, the potential source of greatest contribution to the site is determined on the basis of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Secondly, the magnitude and epicentral distance of the scenario earthquake are calculated according to the main faults and historical earthquake of the potential seismic source zone. Finally, the response spectrum of scenario earthquake is calculated using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relations. The response spectrum based on scenario earthquake method is less than the probability-consistent response spectrum obtained by PSHA method. The empirical analysis shows that the response spectrum of scenario earthquake considers the probability level and the structural factors, and combines the advantages of the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methods. It is easy for people to accept and provide basis for seismic engineering of hydraulic engineering.

Using finite-difference waveform modeling to better understand rupture kinematics and path effects in ground motion modeling: an induced seismicity case study at the Groningen Gas field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zurek, B.; Burnett, W. A.; deMartin, B.

2017-12-01

Ground motion models (GMMs) have historically been used as input in the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and as an engineering tool to assess risk in building design. Generally these equations are developed from empirical analysis of observations that come from fairly complete catalogs of seismic events. One of the challenges when doing a PSHA analysis in a region where earthquakes are anthropogenically induced is that the catalog of observations is not complete enough to come up with a set of equations to cover all expected outcomes. For example, PSHA analysis at the Groningen gas field, an area of known induced seismicity, requires estimates of ground motions from tremors up to a maximum magnitude of 6.5 ML. Of the roughly 1300 recordable earthquakes the maximum observed magnitude to date has been 3.6ML. This paper is part of a broader study where we use a deterministic finite-difference wave-form modeling tool to compliment the traditional development of GMMs. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of the GMM's to uncertainty in the rupture process and how this scales to larger magnitude events that have not been observed. A kinematic fault rupture model is introduced to our waveform simulations to test the sensitivity of the GMMs to variability in the fault rupture process that is physically consistent with observations. These tests will aid in constraining the degree of variability in modeled ground motions due to a realistic range of fault parameters and properties. From this study it is our conclusion that in order to properly capture the uncertainty of the GMMs with magnitude up-scaling one needs to address the impact of uncertainty in the near field (<10km) imposed by the lack of constraint on the finite rupture model. By quantifying the uncertainty back to physical principles it is our belief that it can be better constrained and thus reduce exposure to risk. Further, by investigating and constraining the range of fault rupture scenarios and earthquake magnitudes on ground motion models, hazard and risk analysis in regions with incomplete earthquake catalogs, such as the Groningen gas field, can be better understood.

Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Z.

2011-01-01

Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Are Physics-Based Simulators Ready for Prime Time? Comparisons of RSQSim with UCERF3 and Observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milner, K. R.; Shaw, B. E.; Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.

2017-12-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is typically performed by combining an earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) with a set of empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). ERFs have typically relied on observed fault slip rates and scaling relationships to estimate the rate of large earthquakes on pre-defined fault segments, either ignoring or relying on expert opinion to set the rates of multi-fault or multi-segment ruptures. Version 3 of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) is a significant step forward, replacing expert opinion and fault segmentation with an inversion approach that matches observations better than prior models while incorporating multi-fault ruptures. UCERF3 is a statistical model, however, and doesn't incorporate the physics of earthquake nucleation, rupture propagation, and stress transfer. We examine the feasibility of replacing UCERF3, or components therein, with physics-based rupture simulators such as the Rate-State Earthquake Simulator (RSQSim), developed by Dieterich & Richards-Dinger (2010). RSQSim simulations on the UCERF3 fault system produce catalogs of seismicity that match long term rates on major faults, and produce remarkable agreement with UCERF3 when carried through to PSHA calculations. Averaged over a representative set of sites, the RSQSim-UCERF3 hazard-curve differences are comparable to the small differences between UCERF3 and its predecessor, UCERF2. The hazard-curve agreement between the empirical and physics-based models provides substantial support for the PSHA methodology. RSQSim catalogs include many complex multi-fault ruptures, which we compare with the UCERF3 rupture-plausibility metrics as well as recent observations. Complications in generating physically plausible kinematic descriptions of multi-fault ruptures have thus far prevented us from using UCERF3 in the CyberShake physics-based PSHA platform, which replaces GMPEs with deterministic ground motion simulations. RSQSim produces full slip/time histories that can be directly implemented as sources in CyberShake, without relying on the conditional hypocenter and slip distributions needed for the UCERF models. We also compare RSQSim with time-dependent PSHA calculations based on multi-fault renewal models.

SCEC Earthquake System Science Using High Performance Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maechling, P. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Archuleta, R.; Beroza, G.; Bielak, J.; Chen, P.; Cui, Y.; Day, S.; Deelman, E.; Graves, R. W.; Minster, J. B.; Olsen, K. B.

2008-12-01

The SCEC Community Modeling Environment (SCEC/CME) collaboration performs basic scientific research using high performance computing with the goal of developing a predictive understanding of earthquake processes and seismic hazards in California. SCEC/CME research areas including dynamic rupture modeling, wave propagation modeling, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and full 3D tomography. SCEC/CME computational capabilities are organized around the development and application of robust, re- usable, well-validated simulation systems we call computational platforms. The SCEC earthquake system science research program includes a wide range of numerical modeling efforts and we continue to extend our numerical modeling codes to include more realistic physics and to run at higher and higher resolution. During this year, the SCEC/USGS OpenSHA PSHA computational platform was used to calculate PSHA hazard curves and hazard maps using the new UCERF2.0 ERF and new 2008 attenuation relationships. Three SCEC/CME modeling groups ran 1Hz ShakeOut simulations using different codes and computer systems and carefully compared the results. The DynaShake Platform was used to calculate several dynamic rupture-based source descriptions equivalent in magnitude and final surface slip to the ShakeOut 1.2 kinematic source description. A SCEC/CME modeler produced 10Hz synthetic seismograms for the ShakeOut 1.2 scenario rupture by combining 1Hz deterministic simulation results with 10Hz stochastic seismograms. SCEC/CME modelers ran an ensemble of seven ShakeOut-D simulations to investigate the variability of ground motions produced by dynamic rupture-based source descriptions. The CyberShake Platform was used to calculate more than 15 new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) hazard curves using full 3D waveform modeling and the new UCERF2.0 ERF. The SCEC/CME group has also produced significant computer science results this year. Large-scale SCEC/CME high performance codes were run on NSF TeraGrid sites including simulations that use the full PSC Big Ben supercomputer (4096 cores) and simulations that ran on more than 10K cores at TACC Ranger. The SCEC/CME group used scientific workflow tools and grid-computing to run more than 1.5 million jobs at NCSA for the CyberShake project. Visualizations produced by a SCEC/CME researcher of the 10Hz ShakeOut 1.2 scenario simulation data were used by USGS in ShakeOut publications and public outreach efforts. OpenSHA was ported onto an NSF supercomputer and was used to produce very high resolution hazard PSHA maps that contained more than 1.6 million hazard curves.

Sodium hydroxide anodization of Ti-Al-4V adherends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Filbey, Jennifer A.; Wightman, J. P.; Progar, D. J.

1987-01-01

The use of sodium hydroxide anodization (SHA) for Ti-6Al-4V adherends is examined. The SHA surface is evaluated using SEM, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and Auger electron spectroscopy. The SHA procedures of Kennedy et al. (1983) were employed in this experiment. The photomicrographs of the SHA (sandblasted) and PSHA (sandblasted and pickled) oxide surface reveal that the two surfaces differ. The PSHA is patchy and similar to a chromic acid anodization surface and the porosity of the PSHA is more uniform than the SHA surface. The compositions of the surfaces are studied. It is noted that SHA is an effective pretreatment for Ti-6Al-4V adherends.

History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mualchin, Lalliana

2011-03-01

Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published results at that time. CDMG eventually published the second edition map in 1992 following the Governor's Board of Inquiry on the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and at the demand of Caltrans. The third edition map was published by Caltrans in 1996 utilizing GIS technology to manage data that includes a simplified three-dimension geometry of faults and to facilitate efficient corrections and revisions of data and the map. The spatial relationship of fault hazards with highways, bridges or any other attribute can be efficiently managed and analyzed now in GIS at Caltrans. There has been great confidence in using DSHA in bridge engineering and other applications in California, and it can be confidently applied in any other earthquake-prone region. Earthquake hazards defined by DSHA are: (1) transparent and stable with robust MCE moment magnitudes; (2) flexible in their application to design considerations; (3) can easily incorporate advances in ground motion simulations; and (4) economical. DSHA and neo-DSHA have the same approach and applicability. The accuracy of DSHA has proven to be quite reasonable for practical applications within engineering design and always done with professional judgment. In the final analysis, DSHA is a reality-check for public safety and PSHA results. Although PSHA has been acclaimed as a better approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is DSHA, not PSHA, that has actually been used in seismic hazard assessment for building and bridge engineering, particularly in California.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

2006-12-01

The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes thousands of earthquake scenarios. We have carried out preliminary tsunami hazard calculations for different return periods for western North America and Hawaii based on thousands of earthquake scenarios around the Pacific rim and along the coast of North America. We will present tsunami hazard maps for several return periods and also discuss how to use these results for probabilistic inundation and runup mapping. Our knowledge of certain types of tsunami sources is very limited (e.g. submarine landslides), but a probabilistic framework for tsunami hazard evaluation can include even such sources and their uncertainties and present the overall hazard in a meaningful and consistent way.

Understanding adolescent peer sexual harassment and abuse: using the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Li, Man Yu; Frieze, Irene; Tang, Catherine So-kum

2010-06-01

This study examines intentions to take protective action against peer sexual harassment and abuse (PSHA). The theory of planned behavior (TPB) proposes that attitudes about protective action, perceptions of what others would think about doing this (subjective norms), and behavioral control would be important predictors. A total of 1,531 Chinese secondary school students (769 boys and 762 girls) from Hong Kong were surveyed to test this model. Results showed that the TPB model was predictive for girls, but only subjective norms and behavioral control significantly predicted boys' intentions to protect themselves. Results supported the influence of subjective norms and perceived behavioral control on youths' intentions to reject PSHA. These factors may be useful in guiding the development of an educational program for prevention of PSHA.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

mouloud, Hamidatou

2016-04-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

PSHA in Israel by using the synthetic ground motions from simulated seismicity: the modified SvE procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meirova, T.; Shapira, A.; Eppelbaum, L.

2018-05-01

In this study, we updated and modified the SvE approach of Shapira and van Eck (Nat Hazards 8:201-215, 1993) which may be applied as an alternative to the conventional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in Israel and other regions of low and moderate seismicity where measurements of strong ground motions are scarce. The new computational code SvE overcomes difficulties associated with the description of the earthquake source model and regional ground-motion scaling. In the modified SvE procedure, generating suites of regional ground motion is based on the extended two-dimensional source model of Motazedian and Atkinson (Bull Seism Soc Amer 95:995-1010, 2005a) and updated regional ground-motion scaling (Meirova and Hofstteter, Bull Earth Eng 15:3417-3436, 2017). The analytical approach of Mavroeidis and Papageorgiou (Bull Seism Soc Amer 93:1099-1131, 2003) is used to simulate the near-fault acceleration with the near-fault effects. The comparison of hazard estimates obtained by using the conventional method implemented in the National Building Code for Design provisions for earthquake resistance of structures and the modified SvE procedure for rock-site conditions indicates a general agreement with some perceptible differences at the periods of 0.2 and 0.5 s. For the periods above 0.5 s, the SvE estimates are systematically greater and can increase by a factor of 1.6. For the soft-soil sites, the SvE hazard estimates at the period of 0.2 s are greater than those based on the CB2008 ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) by a factor of 1.3-1.6. We suggest that the hazard estimates for the sites with soft-soil conditions calculated by the modified SvE procedure are more reliable than those which can be found by means of the conventional PSHA. This result agrees with the opinion that the use of a standard GMPE applying the NEHRP soil classification based on the V s, 30 parameter may be inappropriate for PSHA at many sites in Israel.

Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2006-01-01

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis).

Modelling Active Faults in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) with OpenQuake: Definition, Design and Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherill, Graeme; Garcia, Julio; Poggi, Valerio; Chen, Yen-Shin; Pagani, Marco

2016-04-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has, since its inception in 2009, made many contributions to the practice of seismic hazard modeling in different regions of the globe. The OpenQuake-engine (hereafter referred to simply as OpenQuake), GEM's open-source software for calculation of earthquake hazard and risk, has found application in many countries, spanning a diversity of tectonic environments. GEM itself has produced a database of national and regional seismic hazard models, harmonizing into OpenQuake's own definition the varied seismogenic sources found therein. The characterization of active faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is at the centre of this process, motivating many of the developments in OpenQuake and presenting hazard modellers with the challenge of reconciling seismological, geological and geodetic information for the different regions of the world. Faced with these challenges, and from the experience gained in the process of harmonizing existing models of seismic hazard, four critical issues are addressed. The challenge GEM has faced in the development of software is how to define a representation of an active fault (both in terms of geometry and earthquake behaviour) that is sufficiently flexible to adapt to different tectonic conditions and levels of data completeness. By exploring the different fault typologies supported by OpenQuake we illustrate how seismic hazard calculations can, and do, take into account complexities such as geometrical irregularity of faults in the prediction of ground motion, highlighting some of the potential pitfalls and inconsistencies that can arise. This exploration leads to the second main challenge in active fault modeling, what elements of the fault source model impact most upon the hazard at a site, and when does this matter? Through a series of sensitivity studies we show how different configurations of fault geometry, and the corresponding characterisation of near-fault phenomena (including hanging wall and directivity effects) within modern ground motion prediction equations, can have an influence on the seismic hazard at a site. Yet we also illustrate the conditions under which these effects may be partially tempered when considering the full uncertainty in rupture behaviour within the fault system. The third challenge is the development of efficient means for representing both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties from active fault models in PSHA. In implementing state-of-the-art seismic hazard models into OpenQuake, such as those recently undertaken in California and Japan, new modeling techniques are needed that redefine how we treat interdependence of ruptures within the model (such as mutual exclusivity), and the propagation of uncertainties emerging from geology. Finally, we illustrate how OpenQuake, and GEM's additional toolkits for model preparation, can be applied to address long-standing issues in active fault modeling in PSHA. These include constraining the seismogenic coupling of a fault and the partitioning of seismic moment between the active fault surfaces and the surrounding seismogenic crust. We illustrate some of the possible roles that geodesy can play in the process, but highlight where this may introduce new uncertainties and potential biases into the seismic hazard process, and how these can be addressed.

Bayesian identification of multiple seismic change points and varying seismic rates caused by induced seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montoya-Noguera, Silvana; Wang, Yu

2017-04-01

The Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) has experienced an abnormal increase in seismic activity, which is believed to be related to anthropogenic activities. The U.S. Geological Survey has acknowledged this situation and developed the CEUS 2016 1 year seismic hazard model using the catalog of 2015 by assuming stationary seismicity in that period. However, due to the nonstationary nature of induced seismicity, it is essential to identify change points for accurate probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). We present a Bayesian procedure to identify the most probable change points in seismicity and define their respective seismic rates. It uses prior distributions in agreement with conventional PSHA and updates them with recent data to identify seismicity changes. It can determine the change points in a regional scale and may incorporate different types of information in an objective manner. It is first successfully tested with simulated data, and then it is used to evaluate Oklahoma's regional seismicity.

Is Directivity Still Effective in a PSHA Framework?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagnuolo, E.; Herrero, A.; Cultrera, G.

2008-12-01

Source rupture parameters, like directivity, modulate the energy release causing variations in the radiated signal amplitude. Thus they affect the empirical predictive equations and as a consequence the seismic hazard assessment. Classical probabilistic hazard evaluations, e.g. Cornell (1968), use very simple predictive equations only based on magnitude and distance which do not account for variables concerning the rupture process. However nowadays, a few predictive equations (e.g. Somerville 1997, Spudich and Chiou 2008) take into account for rupture directivity. Also few implementations have been made in a PSHA framework (e.g. Convertito et al. 2006, Rowshandel 2006). In practice, these new empirical predictive models incorporate quantitatively the rupture propagation effects through the introduction of variables like rake, azimuth, rupture velocity and laterality. The contribution of all these variables is summarized in corrective factors derived from measuring differences between the real data and the predicted ones Therefore, it's possible to keep the older computation, making use of a simple predictive model, and besides, to incorporate the directivity effect through the corrective factors. Any single supplementary variable meaning a new integral in the parametric space. However the difficulty consists of the constraints on parameter distribution functions. We present the preliminary result for ad hoc distributions (Gaussian, uniform distributions) in order to test the impact of incorporating directivity into PSHA models. We demonstrate that incorporating directivity in PSHA by means of the new predictive equations may lead to strong percentage variations in the hazard assessment.

Implementing the effect of the rupture directivity on PSHA maps: Application to the Marmara Region (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero, Andre; Spagnuolo, Elena; Akinci, Aybige; Pucci, Stefano

2016-04-01

In the present study we attempted to improve the seismic hazard assessment taking into account possible sources of epistemic uncertainty and the azimuthal variability of the ground motions which, at a particular site, is significantly influenced by the rupture mechanism and the rupture direction relative to the site. As a study area we selected Marmara Region (Turkey), especially the city of Istanbul which is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in Europe and the Mediterranean region. The seismic hazard in the city is mainly associated with two active fault segments which are located at about 20-30 km south of Istanbul. In this perspective first we proposed a methodology to incorporate this new information such as nucleation point in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) framework. Secondly we introduced information about those fault segments by focusing on the fault rupture characteristics which affect the azimuthal variations of the ground motion spatial distribution i.e. source directivity effect and its influence on the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). An analytical model developed by Spudich and Chiou (2008) is used as a corrective factor that modifies the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA, Power et al. 2008) ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs) introducing rupture related parameters that generally lump together into the term directivity effect. We used the GMPEs as derived by the Abrahamson and Silva (2008) and the Boore and Atkinson (2008); our results are given in terms of 10% probability of exceedance of PSHA (at several periods from 0.5 s to 10 s) in 50 years on rock site condition; the correction for directivity introduces a significant contribution to the percentage ratio between the seismic hazards computed using the directivity model respect to the seismic hazard standard practice. In particular, we benefited the dynamic simulation from a previous study (Aochi & Utrich, 2015) aimed at evaluating the seismic potential of the Marmara region to derive a statistical distribution for nucleation position. Our results suggest that accounting for rupture related parameters in a PSHA using deterministic information from dynamic models is feasible and in particular, the use of a non-uniform statistical distribution for nucleation position has serious consequences on the hazard assessment. Since the directivity effect is conditional on the nucleation position the hazard map changes with the assumptions made. A worst case scenario (both the faults are rupturing towards the city of Istanbul) predicts up to 25% change than the standard formulation at 2 sec and increases with longer periods. The former result is heavily different if a deterministically based nucleation position is assumed.

Variabilities in probabilistic seismic hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mousavi, S. Mostafa; Beroza, Gregory C.; Hoover, Susan M.

2018-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) characterizes ground-motion hazard from earthquakes. Typically, the time horizon of a PSHA forecast is long, but in response to induced seismicity related to hydrocarbon development, the USGS developed one-year PSHA models. In this paper, we present a display of the variability in USGS hazard curves due to epistemic uncertainty in its informed submodel using a simple bootstrapping approach. We find that variability is highest in low-seismicity areas. On the other hand, areas of high seismic hazard, such as the New Madrid seismic zone or Oklahoma, exhibit relatively lower variability simply because of more available data and a better understanding of the seismicity. Comparing areas of high hazard, New Madrid, which has a history of large naturally occurring earthquakes, has lower forecast variability than Oklahoma, where the hazard is driven mainly by suspected induced earthquakes since 2009. Overall, the mean hazard obtained from bootstrapping is close to the published model, and variability increased in the 2017 one-year model relative to the 2016 model. Comparing the relative variations caused by individual logic-tree branches, we find that the highest hazard variation (as measured by the 95% confidence interval of bootstrapping samples) in the final model is associated with different ground-motion models and maximum magnitudes used in the logic tree, while the variability due to the smoothing distance is minimal. It should be pointed out that this study is not looking at the uncertainty in the hazard in general, but only as it is represented in the USGS one-year models.

The New Italian Seismic Hazard Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, W.; Meletti, C.; Albarello, D.; D'Amico, V.; Luzi, L.; Martinelli, F.; Pace, B.; Pignone, M.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.

2017-12-01

In 2015 the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità Sismica - CPS) of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology was commissioned of coordinating the national scientific community with the aim to elaborate a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly finalized to the update of seismic code. The CPS designed a roadmap for releasing within three years a significantly renewed PSHA model, with regard both to the updated input elements and to the strategies to be followed. The main requirements of the model were discussed in meetings with the experts on earthquake engineering that then will participate to the revision of the building code. The activities were organized in 6 tasks: program coordination, input data, seismicity models, ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs), computation and rendering, testing. The input data task has been selecting the most updated information about seismicity (historical and instrumental), seismogenic faults, and deformation (both from seismicity and geodetic data). The seismicity models have been elaborating in terms of classic source areas, fault sources and gridded seismicity based on different approaches. The GMPEs task has selected the most recent models accounting for their tectonic suitability and forecasting performance. The testing phase has been planned to design statistical procedures to test with the available data the whole seismic hazard models, and single components such as the seismicity models and the GMPEs. In this talk we show some preliminary results, summarize the overall strategy for building the new Italian PSHA model, and discuss in detail important novelties that we put forward. Specifically, we adopt a new formal probabilistic framework to interpret the outcomes of the model and to test it meaningfully; this requires a proper definition and characterization of both aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty that we accomplish through an ensemble modeling strategy. We use a weighting scheme of the different components of the PSHA model that has been built through three different independent steps: a formal experts' elicitation, the outcomes of the testing phase, and the correlation between the outcomes. Finally, we explore through different techniques the influence on seismic hazard of the declustering procedure.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada: Considering an Active Leech River Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukovica, J.; Molnar, S.; Ghofrani, H.

2017-12-01

The Leech River fault is situated on Vancouver Island near the city of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. The 60km transpressional reverse fault zone runs east to west along the southern tip of Vancouver Island, dividing the lithologic units of Jurassic-Cretaceous Leech River Complex schists to the north and Eocene Metchosin Formation basalts to the south. This fault system poses a considerable hazard due to its proximity to Victoria and 3 major hydroelectric dams. The Canadian seismic hazard model for the 2015 National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) considered the fault system to be inactive. However, recent paleoseismic evidence suggests there to be at least 2 surface-rupturing events to have exceeded a moment magnitude (M) of 6.5 within the last 15,000 years (Morell et al. 2017). We perform a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for the city of Victoria with consideration of the Leech River fault as an active source. A PSHA for Victoria which replicates the 2015 NBCC estimates is accomplished to calibrate our PSHA procedure. The same seismic source zones, magnitude recurrence parameters, and Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are used. We replicate the uniform hazard spectrum for a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years for a 500 km radial area around Victoria. An active Leech River fault zone is then added; known length and dip. We are determining magnitude recurrence parameters based on a Gutenberg-Richter relationship for the Leech River fault from various catalogues of the recorded seismicity (M 2-3) within the fault's vicinity and the proposed paleoseismic events. We seek to understand whether inclusion of an active Leech River fault source will significantly increase the probabilistic seismic hazard for Victoria. Morell et al. 2017. Quaternary rupture of a crustal fault beneath Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. GSA Today, 27, doi: 10.1130/GSATG291A.1

Neo-deterministic definition of earthquake hazard scenarios: a multiscale application to India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Rastogi, Bal K.; Vaccari, Franco; Cozzini, Stefano; Bisignano, Davide; Romanelli, Fabio; Panza, Giuliano F.; Ashish, Mr; Mir, Ramees R.

2014-05-01

The development of effective mitigation strategies requires scientifically consistent estimates of seismic ground motion; recent analysis, however, showed that the performances of the classical probabilistic approach to seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) are very unsatisfactory in anticipating ground shaking from future large earthquakes. Moreover, due to their basic heuristic limitations, the standard PSHA estimates are by far unsuitable when dealing with the protection of critical structures (e.g. nuclear power plants) and cultural heritage, where it is necessary to consider extremely long time intervals. Nonetheless, the persistence in resorting to PSHA is often explained by the need to deal with uncertainties related with ground shaking and earthquakes recurrence. We show that current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes, along with the improving quantity and quality of geophysical data, allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of PSHA. The advanced approach considered in this study, namely the NDSHA (neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment), is based on the physically sound definition of a wide set of credible scenario events and accounts for uncertainties and earthquakes recurrence in a substantially different way. The expected ground shaking due to a wide set of potential earthquakes is defined by means of full waveforms modelling, based on the possibility to efficiently compute synthetic seismograms in complex laterally heterogeneous anelastic media. In this way a set of scenarios of ground motion can be defined, either at national and local scale, the latter considering the 2D and 3D heterogeneities of the medium travelled by the seismic waves. The efficiency of the NDSHA computational codes allows for the fast generation of hazard maps at the regional scale even on a modern laptop computer. At the scenario scale, quick parametric studies can be easily performed to understand the influence of the model characteristics on the computed ground shaking scenarios. For massive parametric tests, or for the repeated generation of large scale hazard maps, the methodology can take advantage of more advanced computational platforms, ranging from GRID computing infrastructures to HPC dedicated clusters up to Cloud computing. In such a way, scientists can deal efficiently with the variety and complexity of the potential earthquake sources, and perform parametric studies to characterize the related uncertainties. NDSHA provides realistic time series of expected ground motion readily applicable for seismic engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The methodology has been successfully applied to strategic buildings, lifelines and cultural heritage sites, and for the purpose of seismic microzoning in several urban areas worldwide. A web application is currently being developed that facilitates the access to the NDSHA methodology and the related outputs by end-users, who are interested in reliable territorial planning and in the design and construction of buildings and infrastructures in seismic areas. At the same, the web application is also shaping up as an advanced educational tool to explore interactively how seismic waves are generated at the source, propagate inside structural models, and build up ground shaking scenarios. We illustrate the preliminary results obtained from a multiscale application of NDSHA approach to the territory of India, zooming from large scale hazard maps of ground shaking at bedrock, to the definition of local scale earthquake scenarios for selected sites in the Gujarat state (NW India). The study aims to provide the community (e.g. authorities and engineers) with advanced information for earthquake risk mitigation, which is particularly relevant to Gujarat in view of the rapid development and urbanization of the region.

Earthquake focal mechanism forecasting in Italy for PSHA purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roselli, Pamela; Marzocchi, Warner; Mariucci, Maria Teresa; Montone, Paola

2018-01-01

In this paper, we put forward a procedure that aims to forecast focal mechanism of future earthquakes. One of the primary uses of such forecasts is in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA); in fact, aiming at reducing the epistemic uncertainty, most of the newer ground motion prediction equations consider, besides the seismicity rates, the forecast of the focal mechanism of the next large earthquakes as input data. The data set used to this purpose is relative to focal mechanisms taken from the latest stress map release for Italy containing 392 well-constrained solutions of events, from 1908 to 2015, with Mw ≥ 4 and depths from 0 down to 40 km. The data set considers polarity focal mechanism solutions until to 1975 (23 events), whereas for 1976-2015, it takes into account only the Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT)-like earthquake focal solutions for data homogeneity. The forecasting model is rooted in the Total Weighted Moment Tensor concept that weighs information of past focal mechanisms evenly distributed in space, according to their distance from the spatial cells and magnitude. Specifically, for each cell of a regular 0.1° × 0.1° spatial grid, the model estimates the probability to observe a normal, reverse, or strike-slip fault plane solution for the next large earthquakes, the expected moment tensor and the related maximum horizontal stress orientation. These results will be available for the new PSHA model for Italy under development. Finally, to evaluate the reliability of the forecasts, we test them with an independent data set that consists of some of the strongest earthquakes with Mw ≥ 3.9 occurred during 2016 in different Italian tectonic provinces.

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, F.F.; Schwartz, D.P.

2008-01-01

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

New Evaluation of Seismic Hazard in Cental America and la Hispaniola

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benito, B.; Camacho, E. I.; Rojas, W.; Climent, A.; Alvarado-Induni, G.; Marroquin, G.; Molina, E.; Talavera, E.; Belizaire, D.; Pierristal, G.; Torres, Y.; Huerfano, V.; Polanco, E.; García, R.; Zevallos, F.

2013-05-01

The results from seismic hazard studies carried out in two seismic scenarios, Central America Region (CA) and La Hispaniola Island, are presented here. Both cases follow the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology and they are developed in terms of PGA, and SA (T), for T of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s. In both anaysis, hybrid zonation models are considered, integrated by seismogenic zones and faults where data of slip rate and recurrence time are available. First, we present a new evaluation of seismic hazard in CA, starting with the results of a previous study by Benito et al (2011). Some improvements are now included, such as: updated catalogue till 2011, corrections in the zonning model in particular for subduction regime taken into account the variation of the dip in Costa Rica and Panama, and modelization of some faults as independent units for the hazard estimation. The results allow us to carry out a sensitivity analysis comparing the ones obtained with and without faults. In a second part we present the results of the PSHA in La Hispaniola, carried out as part of the cooperative project SISMO-HAITI supported by UPM and developed in cooperation with ONEV. It started a few months after the 2010 event, as an answer to a required help from the Haitian government to UPM. The study was aimed at obtaining results suitable for seismic design purposes and started with the elaboration of a seismic catalogue for the Hispaniola, requiring an exhaustive revision of data reported by around 30 seismic agencies, apart from these from Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic Seismic Networks. Seismotectonic models for the region were reviewed and a new regional zonation was proposed, taking into account different geophysical data. Attenuation models for subduction and crustal zones were also reviewed and the more suitable were calibrated with data recorded inside the Caribbean plate. As a result of the PSHA, different maps were generated for the quoted parameters, together with the UHS for the main cities in the country. The obtained values for PGA and return peridod of 475 y. are comparable to the ones of the Dominican Republic Building Code, with maximun PGA around 400 cm/s2 (in rock sites). However, the morphology of the map is quite similar to the previous one by Frankel et al (2011), althought ours presents lower PGA values. The results are available as a basis for the the first Haitian building code.

The Quantification of Consistent Subjective Logic Tree Branch Weights for PSHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runge, A. K.; Scherbaum, F.

2012-04-01

The development of quantitative models for the rate of exceedance of seismically generated ground motion parameters is the target of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In regions of low to moderate seismicity, the selection and evaluation of source- and/or ground-motion models is often a major challenge to hazard analysts and affected by large epistemic uncertainties. In PSHA this type of uncertainties is commonly treated within a logic tree framework in which the branch weights express the degree-of-belief values of an expert in the corresponding set of models. For the calculation of the distribution of hazard curves, these branch weights are subsequently used as subjective probabilities. However the quality of the results depends strongly on the "quality" of the expert knowledge. A major challenge for experts in this context is to provide weight estimates which are logically consistent (in the sense of Kolmogorov's axioms) and to be aware of and to deal with the multitude of heuristics and biases which affect human judgment under uncertainty. For example, people tend to give smaller weights to each branch of a logic tree the more branches it has, starting with equal weights for all branches and then adjusting this uniform distribution based on his/her beliefs about how the branches differ. This effect is known as pruning bias.¹ A similar unwanted effect, which may even wrongly suggest robustness of the corresponding hazard estimates, will appear in cases where all models are first judged according to some numerical quality measure approach and the resulting weights are subsequently normalized to sum up to one.2 To address these problems, we have developed interactive graphical tools for the determination of logic tree branch weights in form of logically consistent subjective probabilities, based on the concepts suggested in Curtis and Wood (2004).3 Instead of determining the set of weights for all the models in a single step, the computer driven elicitation process is performed as a sequence of evaluations of relative weights for small subsets of models which are presented to the analyst. From these, the distribution of logic tree weights for the whole model set is determined as solution of an optimization problem. The model subset presented to the analyst in each step is designed to maximize the expected information. The result of this process is a set of logically consistent weights together with a measure of confidence determined from the amount of conflicting information which is provided by the expert during the relative weighting process.

Study of Seismic Hazards in the Center of the State of Veracruz, MÉXICO.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres Morales, G. F.; Leonardo Suárez, M.; Dávalos Sotelo, R.; Mora González, I.; Castillo Aguilar, S.

2015-12-01

Preliminary results obtained from the project "Microzonation of geological and hydrometeorological hazards for conurbations of Orizaba, Veracruz, and major sites located in the lower sub-basins: The Antigua and Jamapa" are presented. These project was supported by the Joint Funds CONACyT-Veracruz state government. It was developed a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (henceforth PSHA) in the central area of Veracruz State, mainly in a region bounded by the watersheds of the rivers Jamapa and Antigua, whit the aim to evaluate the geological and hydrometeorological hazards in this region. The project pays most attention to extreme weather phenomena, floods and earthquakes, in order to calculate the risk induced by previous for landslides and rock falls. In addition, as part of the study, the PSHA was developed considered the site effect in the urban zones of the cities Xalapa and Orizaba; the site effects were incorporated by a standard format proposed in studies of microzonation and its application in computer systems, which allows to optimize and condense microzonation studies in a city. The results obtained from the PSHA are presented through to seismic hazard maps (hazard footprints), exceedance rate curves and uniform hazard spectrum for different spectral ordinates, between 0.01 and 5.0 seconds, associated to selected return periods: 72, 225, 475 and 2475 years.

Expanding CyberShake Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Calculations to Central California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, F.; Callaghan, S.; Maechling, P. J.; Goulet, C. A.; Milner, K. R.; Graves, R. W.; Olsen, K. B.; Jordan, T. H.

2016-12-01

As part of its program of earthquake system science, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has developed a simulation platform, CyberShake, to perform physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using 3D deterministic wave propagation simulations. CyberShake performs PSHA by first simulating a tensor-valued wavefield of Strain Green Tensors. CyberShake then takes an earthquake rupture forecast and extends it by varying the hypocenter location and slip distribution, resulting in about 500,000 rupture variations. Seismic reciprocity is used to calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation at each computation site. These seismograms are processed to obtain intensity measures, such as spectral acceleration, which are then combined with probabilities from the earthquake rupture forecast to produce a hazard curve. Hazard curves are calculated at seismic frequencies up to 1 Hz for hundreds of sites in a region and the results interpolated to obtain a hazard map. In developing and verifying CyberShake, we have focused our modeling in the greater Los Angeles region. We are now expanding the hazard calculations into Central California. Using workflow tools running jobs across two large-scale open-science supercomputers, NCSA Blue Waters and OLCF Titan, we calculated 1-Hz PSHA results for over 400 locations in Central California. For each location, we produced hazard curves using both a 3D central California velocity model created via tomographic inversion, and a regionally averaged 1D model. These new results provide low-frequency exceedance probabilities for the rapidly expanding metropolitan areas of Santa Barbara, Bakersfield, and San Luis Obispo, and lend new insights into the effects of directivity-basin coupling associated with basins juxtaposed to major faults such as the San Andreas. Particularly interesting are the basin effects associated with the deep sediments of the southern San Joaquin Valley. We will compare hazard estimates from the 1D and 3D models, summarize the challenges of expanding CyberShake to a new geographic region, and describe our future CyberShake plans.

No positive effect of Acid etching or plasma cleaning on osseointegration of titanium implants in a canine femoral condyle press-fit model.

PubMed

Saksø, H; Jakobsen, T; Saksø, M; Baas, J; Jakobsen, Ss; Soballe, K

2013-01-01

Implant surface treatments that improve early osseointegration may prove useful in long-term survival of uncemented implants. We investigated Acid Etching and Plasma Cleaning on titanium implants. In a randomized, paired animal study, four porous coated Ti implants were inserted into the femurs of each of ten dogs. PC (Porous Coating; control)PC+PSHA (Plasma Sprayed Hydroxyapatite; positive control)PC+ET (Acid Etch)PC+ET+PLCN (Plasma Cleaning) After four weeks mechanical fixation was evaluated by push-out test and osseointegration by histomorphometry. The PSHA-coated implants were better osseointegrated than the three other groups on outer surface implant porosity (p<0.05) while there was no statistical difference in deep surface implant porosity when compared with nontreated implant. Within the deep surface implant porosity, there was more newly formed bone in the control group compared to the ET and ET+PCLN groups (p<0.05). In all compared groups, there was no statistical difference in any biomechanical parameter. In terms of osseointegration on outer surface implant porosity PC+PSHA was superior to the other three groups. Neither the acid etching nor the plasma cleaning offered any advantage in terms of implant osseointegration. There was no statistical difference in any of the biomechanical parameters among all groups in the press-fit model at 4 weeks of evaluation time.

Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin

2017-12-01

This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kammerer, Annie

Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should bemore » considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the methodology, there is potential for general applicability to other facilities across the DOE complex. As such, both a general methodology and a specific approach intended for INL are described in this document. The general methodology proposed in this white paper is referred to as the “seismic hazard periodic review methodology,” or SHPRM. It presents a graded approach for SDC-3, SDC-4 and SDC-5 facilities that can be applied in any risk-informed regulatory environment by once risk-objectives appropriate for the framework are developed. While the methodology was developed for seismic hazard considerations, it can also be directly applied to other types of natural hazards.« less

Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kammerer, Annie

Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should bemore » considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the methodology, there is potential for general applicability to other facilities across the DOE complex. As such, both a general methodology and a specific approach intended for INL are described in this document. The general methodology proposed in this white paper is referred to as the “seismic hazard periodic review methodology,” or SHPRM. It presents a graded approach for SDC-3, SDC-4 and SDC-5 facilities that can be applied in any risk-informed regulatory environment once risk-objectives appropriate for the framework are developed. While the methodology was developed for seismic hazard considerations, it can also be directly applied to other types of natural hazards.« less

Fault-based PSHA of an active tectonic region characterized by low deformation rates: the case of the Lower Rhine Graben

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanneste, Kris; Vleminckx, Bart; Camelbeeck, Thierry

2016-04-01

The Lower Rhine Graben (LRG) is one of the few regions in intraplate NW Europe where seismic activity can be linked to active faults, yet probabilistic seismic hazard assessments of this region have hitherto been based on area-source models, in which the LRG is modeled as a single or a small number of seismotectonic zones with uniform seismicity. While fault-based PSHA has become common practice in more active regions of the world (e.g., California, Japan, New Zealand, Italy), knowledge of active faults has been lagging behind in other regions, due to incomplete tectonic inventory, low level of seismicity, lack of systematic fault parameterization, or a combination thereof. The past few years, efforts are increasingly being directed to the inclusion of fault sources in PSHA in these regions as well, in order to predict hazard on a more physically sound basis. In Europe, the EC project SHARE ("Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe", http://www.share-eu.org/) represented an important step forward in this regard. In the frame of this project, we previously compiled the first parameterized fault model for the LRG that can be applied in PSHA. We defined 15 fault sources based on major stepovers, bifurcations, gaps, and important changes in strike, dip direction or slip rate. Based on the available data, we were able to place reasonable bounds on the parameters required for time-independent PSHA: length, width, strike, dip, rake, slip rate, and maximum magnitude. With long-term slip rates remaining below 0.1 mm/yr, the LRG can be classified as a low-deformation-rate structure. Information on recurrence interval and elapsed time since the last major earthquake is lacking for most faults, impeding time-dependent PSHA. We consider different models to construct the magnitude-frequency distribution (MFD) of each fault: a slip-rate constrained form of the classical truncated Gutenberg-Richter MFD (Anderson & Luco, 1983) versus a characteristic MFD following Youngs & Coppersmith (1985). The summed Anderson & Luco fault MFDs show a remarkably good agreement with the MFD obtained from the historical and instrumental catalog for the entire LRG, whereas the summed Youngs & Coppersmith MFD clearly underpredicts low to moderate magnitudes, but yields higher occurrence rates for M > 6.3 than would be obtained by simple extrapolation of the catalog MFD. The moment rate implied by the Youngs & Coppersmith MFDs is about three times higher, but is still within the range allowed by current GPS uncertainties. Using the open-source hazard engine OpenQuake (http://openquake.org/), we compute hazard maps for return periods of 475, 2475, and 10,000 yr, and for spectral periods of 0 s (PGA) and 1 s. We explore the impact of various parameter choices, such as MFD model, GMPE distance metric, and inclusion of a background zone to account for lower magnitudes, and we also compare the results with hazard maps based on area-source models. References: Anderson, J. G., and J. E. Luco (1983), Consequences of slip rate constraints on earthquake occurrence relations, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 73(2), 471-496. Youngs, R. R., and K. J. Coppersmith (1985), Implications of fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 75(4), 939-964.

Seismic hazard analysis with PSHA method in four cities in Java.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elistyawati, Y.; Palupi, I. R.; Suharsono

2016-11-01

In this study the tectonic earthquakes was observed through the peak ground acceleration through the PSHA method by dividing the area of the earthquake source. This study applied the earthquake data from 1965 - 2015 that has been analyzed the completeness of the data, location research was the entire Java with stressed in four large cities prone to earthquakes. The results were found to be a hazard map with a return period of 500 years, 2500 years return period, and the hazard curve were four major cities (Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, and the city of Banyuwangi). Results Java PGA hazard map 500 years had a peak ground acceleration within 0 g ≥ 0.5 g, while the return period of 2500 years had a value of 0 to ≥ 0.8 g. While, the PGA hazard curves on the city's most influential source of the earthquake was from sources such as fault Cimandiri backgroud, for the city of Bandung earthquake sources that influence the seismic source fault dent background form. In other side, the city of Yogyakarta earthquake hazard curve of the most influential was the source of the earthquake background of the Opak fault, and the most influential hazard curve of Banyuwangi earthquake was the source of Java and Sumba megatruts earthquake.

Conditional spectrum computation incorporating multiple causal earthquakes and ground-motion prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lin, Ting; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Baker, Jack W.; Luco, Nicolas

2013-01-01

The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are performed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some insights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

Probabilistic seismic hazard at the archaeological site of Gol Gumbaz in Vijayapura, south India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Shivakumar G.; Menon, Arun; Dodagoudar, G. R.

2018-03-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, {M}w = 6.4 (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration ({S}a) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.

Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) for Nuclear Facilities Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kevin J. Coppersmith; Lawrence A. Salomone; Chris W. Fuller

2012-01-31

This report describes a new seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). It will replace the Seismic Hazard Methodology for the Central and Eastern United States, EPRI Report NP-4726 (July 1986) and the Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of the Rocky Mountains, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Model, (Bernreuter et al., 1989). The objective of the CEUS SSC Project is to develop a new seismic source model for the CEUS using a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 assessment process. The goal of the SSHAC process is to representmore » the center, body, and range of technically defensible interpretations of the available data, models, and methods. Input to a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) consists of both seismic source characterization and ground motion characterization. These two components are used to calculate probabilistic hazard results (or seismic hazard curves) at a particular site. This report provides a new seismic source model. Results and Findings The product of this report is a regional CEUS SSC model. This model includes consideration of an updated database, full assessment and incorporation of uncertainties, and the range of diverse technical interpretations from the larger technical community. The SSC model will be widely applicable to the entire CEUS, so this project uses a ground motion model that includes generic variations to allow for a range of representative site conditions (deep soil, shallow soil, hard rock). Hazard and sensitivity calculations were conducted at seven test sites representative of different CEUS hazard environments. Challenges and Objectives The regional CEUS SSC model will be of value to readers who are involved in PSHA work, and who wish to use an updated SSC model. This model is based on a comprehensive and traceable process, in accordance with SSHAC guidelines in NUREG/CR-6372, Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. The model will be used to assess the present-day composite distribution for seismic sources along with their characterization in the CEUS and uncertainty. In addition, this model is in a form suitable for use in PSHA evaluations for regulatory activities, such as Early Site Permit (ESPs) and Combined Operating License Applications (COLAs). Applications, Values, and Use Development of a regional CEUS seismic source model will provide value to those who (1) have submitted an ESP or COLA for Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) review before 2011; (2) will submit an ESP or COLA for NRC review after 2011; (3) must respond to safety issues resulting from NRC Generic Issue 199 (GI-199) for existing plants and (4) will prepare PSHAs to meet design and periodic review requirements for current and future nuclear facilities. This work replaces a previous study performed approximately 25 years ago. Since that study was completed, substantial work has been done to improve the understanding of seismic sources and their characterization in the CEUS. Thus, a new regional SSC model provides a consistent, stable basis for computing PSHA for a future time span. Use of a new SSC model reduces the risk of delays in new plant licensing due to more conservative interpretations in the existing and future literature. Perspective The purpose of this study, jointly sponsored by EPRI, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the NRC was to develop a new CEUS SSC model. The team assembled to accomplish this purpose was composed of distinguished subject matter experts from industry, government, and academia. The resulting model is unique, and because this project has solicited input from the present-day larger technical community, it is not likely that there will be a need for significant revision for a number of years. See also Sponsors Perspective for more details. The goal of this project was to implement the CEUS SSC work plan for developing a regional CEUS SSC model. The work plan, formulated by the project manager and a technical integration team, consists of a series of tasks designed to meet the project objectives. This report was reviewed by a participatory peer review panel (PPRP), sponsor reviewers, the NRC, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other stakeholders. Comments from the PPRP and other reviewers were considered when preparing the report. The SSC model was completed at the end of 2011.« less

CyberShake: Running Seismic Hazard Workflows on Distributed HPC Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callaghan, S.; Maechling, P. J.; Graves, R. W.; Gill, D.; Olsen, K. B.; Milner, K. R.; Yu, J.; Jordan, T. H.

2013-12-01

As part of its program of earthquake system science research, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has developed a simulation platform, CyberShake, to perform physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using 3D deterministic wave propagation simulations. CyberShake performs PSHA by simulating a tensor-valued wavefield of Strain Green Tensors, and then using seismic reciprocity to calculate synthetic seismograms for about 415,000 events per site of interest. These seismograms are processed to compute ground motion intensity measures, which are then combined with probabilities from an earthquake rupture forecast to produce a site-specific hazard curve. Seismic hazard curves for hundreds of sites in a region can be used to calculate a seismic hazard map, representing the seismic hazard for a region. We present a recently completed PHSA study in which we calculated four CyberShake seismic hazard maps for the Southern California area to compare how CyberShake hazard results are affected by different SGT computational codes (AWP-ODC and AWP-RWG) and different community velocity models (Community Velocity Model - SCEC (CVM-S4) v11.11 and Community Velocity Model - Harvard (CVM-H) v11.9). We present our approach to running workflow applications on distributed HPC resources, including systems without support for remote job submission. We show how our approach extends the benefits of scientific workflows, such as job and data management, to large-scale applications on Track 1 and Leadership class open-science HPC resources. We used our distributed workflow approach to perform CyberShake Study 13.4 on two new NSF open-science HPC computing resources, Blue Waters and Stampede, executing over 470 million tasks to calculate physics-based hazard curves for 286 locations in the Southern California region. For each location, we calculated seismic hazard curves with two different community velocity models and two different SGT codes, resulting in over 1100 hazard curves. We will report on the performance of this CyberShake study, four times larger than previous studies. Additionally, we will examine the challenges we face applying these workflow techniques to additional open-science HPC systems and discuss whether our workflow solutions continue to provide value to our large-scale PSHA calculations.

Towards a Fault-based SHA in the Southern Upper Rhine Graben

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baize, Stéphane; Reicherter, Klaus; Thomas, Jessica; Chartier, Thomas; Cushing, Edward Marc

2016-04-01

A brief overview at a seismic map of the Upper Rhine Graben area (say between Strasbourg and Basel) reveals that the region is seismically active. The area has been hit recently by shallow and moderate quakes but, historically, strong quakes damaged and devastated populated zones. Several authors previously suggested, through preliminary geomorphological and geophysical studies, that active faults could be traced along the eastern margin of the graben. Thus, fault-based PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard assessment) studies should be developed. Nevertheless, most of the input data in fault-based PSHA models are highly uncertain, based upon sparse or hypothetical data. Geophysical and geological data document the presence of post-Tertiary westward dipping faults in the area. However, our first investigations suggest that the available surface fault map do not provide a reliable document of Quaternary fault traces. Slip rate values that can be currently used in fault-PSHA models are based on regional stratigraphic data, but these include neither detailed datings nor clear base surface contours. Several hints on fault activity do exist and we have now relevant tools and techniques to figure out the activity of the faults of concern. Our preliminary analyses suggest that the LiDAR topography can adequately image the fault segments and, thanks to detailed geomorphological analysis, these data allow tracking cumulative fault offsets. Because the fault models can therefore be considered highly uncertain, our coming project for the next 3 years is to acquire and analyze these accurate topographical data, to trace the active faults and to determine slip rates through relevant features dating. Eventually, we plan to find a key site to perform a paleoseismological trench because this approach has been proved to be worth in the Graben, both to the North (Wörms and Strasbourg) and to the South (Basel). This would be done in order to definitely prove whether the faults ruptured the ground surface during the Quaternary, and in order to determine key fault parameters such as magnitude and age of large events.

The effect of directivity in a PSHA framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagnuolo, E.; Herrero, A.; Cultrera, G.

2012-09-01

We propose a method to introduce a refined representation of the ground motion in the framework of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). This study is especially oriented to the incorporation of a priori information about source parameters, by focusing on the directivity effect and its influence on seismic hazard maps. Two strategies have been followed. One considers the seismic source as an extended source, and it is valid when the PSHA seismogenetic sources are represented as fault segments. We show that the incorporation of variables related to the directivity effect can lead to variations up to 20 per cent of the hazard level in case of dip-slip faults with uniform distribution of hypocentre location, in terms of spectral acceleration response at 5 s, exceeding probability of 10 per cent in 50 yr. The second one concerns the more general problem of the seismogenetic areas, where each point is a seismogenetic source having the same chance of enucleate a seismic event. In our proposition the point source is associated to the rupture-related parameters, defined using a statistical description. As an example, we consider a source point of an area characterized by strike-slip faulting style. With the introduction of the directivity correction the modulation of the hazard map reaches values up to 100 per cent (for strike-slip, unilateral faults). The introduction of directivity does not increase uniformly the hazard level, but acts more like a redistribution of the estimation that is consistent with the fault orientation. A general increase appears only when no a priori information is available. However, nowadays good a priori knowledge exists on style of faulting, dip and orientation of faults associated to the majority of the seismogenetic zones of the present seismic hazard maps. The percentage of variation obtained is strongly dependent on the type of model chosen to represent analytically the directivity effect. Therefore, it is our aim to emphasize more on the methodology following which, all the information collected may be easily converted to obtain a more comprehensive and meaningful probabilistic seismic hazard formulation.

The Latin-American region and the challenges to develop one homogeneous and harmonized hazard model: preliminary results for the Caribbean and Central America regions in the GEM context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, J.; Arcila, M.; Benito, B.; Eraso, J.; García, R.; Gomez Capera, A.; Pagani, M.; Pinho, R.; Rendon, H.; Torres, Y.

2013-05-01

Latin America is a seismically active region with complex tectonic settings that make the creation of hazard models challenging. Over the past two decades PSHA studies have been completed for this region in the context of global (Shedlock, 1999), regional (Dimaté et al., 1999) and national initiatives. Currently different research groups are developing new models for various nations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM), an initiative aiming at the creation of a large global community working collaboratively on building hazard and risk models using open standards and tools, is promoting the collaboration between different national projects and groups so as to facilitate the creation of harmonized regional models. The creation of a harmonized hazard model can follow different approaches, varying from a simple patching of available models to a complete homogenisation of basic information and the subsequent creation of a completely new PSHA model. In this contribution we describe the process and results of a first attempt aiming at the creation of a community based model covering the Caribbean and Central America regions. It consists of five main steps: 1- Identification and collection of available PSHA input models; 2- Analysis of the consistency, transparency and reproducibility of each model; 3- Selection (if more then a model exists for the same region); 4- Representation of the models in a standardized format and incorporation of new knowledge from recent studies; 5- Proposal(s) of harmonization We consider some PHSA studies completed over the latest twenty years in the region comprising the Caribbean (CAR), Central America (CAM) and northern South America (SA), we illustrate a tentative harmonization of the seismic source geometries models and we discuss the steps needed toward a complete harmonisation of the models. Our will is to have a model based on best practices and high standards created though a combination of knowledge and competences coming from the scientific community, incorporating national and regional Institutions. This is an ambitious goal that can be pursued only through an intense and open cooperation between all the interested subjects.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay

2017-10-01

Seismic hazard calculation is carried out for the Horn of Africa region (0°-20° N and 30°-50°E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The earthquakes catalogue data obtained from different sources were compiled, homogenized to Mw magnitude scale and declustered to remove the dependent events as required by Poisson earthquake source model. The seismotectonic map of the study area that avails from recent studies is used for area sources zonation. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.5° × 0.5°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering contributions from all seismic sources. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were calculated for all the grid points using generic rock site with Vs = 760 m/s. Obtained values vary from 0.0 to 0.18 g and 0.0-0.35 g for 475 and 2475 return periods, respectively. The corresponding contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values for the two return periods are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and hazard curves for PGA and 0.2 s spectral acceleration (Sa) all at rock site are developed for the city of Addis Ababa. The hazard map of this study corresponding to the 475 return periods has already been used to update and produce the 3rd generation building code of Ethiopia.

Probabilistic Scenario-based Seismic Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructures Method and Application for a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, J.

2006-12-01

Deterministic scenario-based seismic hazard analysis has a long tradition in earthquake engineering for developing the design basis of critical infrastructures like dams, transport infrastructures, chemical plants and nuclear power plants. For many applications besides of the design of infrastructures it is of interest to assess the efficiency of the design measures taken. These applications require a method allowing to perform a meaningful quantitative risk analysis. A new method for a probabilistic scenario-based seismic risk analysis has been developed based on a probabilistic extension of proven deterministic methods like the MCE- methodology. The input data required for the method are entirely based on the information which is necessary to perform any meaningful seismic hazard analysis. The method is based on the probabilistic risk analysis approach common for applications in nuclear technology developed originally by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). It is based (1) on a classification of earthquake events into different size classes (by magnitude), (2) the evaluation of the frequency of occurrence of events, assigned to the different classes (frequency of initiating events, (3) the development of bounding critical scenarios assigned to each class based on the solution of an optimization problem and (4) in the evaluation of the conditional probability of exceedance of critical design parameters (vulnerability analysis). The advantage of the method in comparison with traditional PSHA consists in (1) its flexibility, allowing to use different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence as well as to incorporate advanced physical models into the analysis, (2) in the mathematically consistent treatment of uncertainties, and (3) in the explicit consideration of the lifetime of the critical structure as a criterion to formulate different risk goals. The method was applied for the evaluation of the risk of production interruption losses of a nuclear power plant during its residual lifetime.

Regulatory Issues and Challenges in Developing Seismic Source Characterizations for New Nuclear Power Plant Applications in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuller, C. W.; Unruh, J.; Lindvall, S.; Lettis, W.

2009-05-01

An integral component of the safety analysis for proposed nuclear power plants within the US is a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Most applications currently under NRC review followed guidance provided within NRC Regulatory Guide 1.208 (RG 1.208) for developing seismic source characterizations (SSC) for their PSHA. Three key components of RG 1.208 guidance is that applicants should: (1) use existing PSHA models and SSCs accepted by the NRC as SSC as a starting point for their SSCs; (2) evaluate new information and data developed since acceptance of the starting model to determine if the model should be updated; and (3) follow guidelines set forth by the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) (NUREG/CR-6372) in developing significant updates (i.e., updates should capture SSC uncertainty through representing the "center, body, and range of technical interpretations" of the informed technical community). Major motivations for following this guidance are to ensure accurate representations of hazard and regulatory stability in hazard estimates for nuclear power plants. All current applications with the NRC have used the EPRI-SOG source characterizations developed in the 1980s as their starting point model, and all applicants have followed RG 1.208 guidance in updating the EPRI- SOG model. However, there has been considerable variability in how applicants have interpreted the guidance, and thus there has been considerable variability in the methodology used in updating the SSCs. Much of the variability can be attributed to how different applicants have interpreted the implications of new data, new interpretations of new and/or old data, and new "opinions" of members of the informed technical community. For example, many applicants and the NRC have wrestled with the challenge of whether or not to update SSCs in light of new opinions or interpretations of older data put forth by one member of the technical community. This challenge has been further complicated by: (1) a given applicant's uncertainty in how to revise the EPRI-SOG model, which was developed using a process similar to that dictated by SSHAC for a level 3 or 4 study, without conducting a resource-intensive SSHAC level 3 or higher study for their respective application; and (2) a lack of guidance from the NRC on acceptable methods of demonstrating that new data, interpretations, and opinions are adequately represented within the EPRI-SOG model. Partly because of these issues, initiative was taken by the nuclear industry, NRC and DOE to develop a new base PSHA model for the central and eastern US. However, this new SSC model will not be completed for several years and does not resolve many of the fundamental regulatory and philosophical issues that have been raised during the current round of applications. To ensure regulatory stability and to provide accurate estimates of hazard for nuclear power plants, a dialog must be started between regulators and industry to resolve these issues. Two key issues that must be discussed are: (1) should new data and new interpretations or opinions of old data be treated differently in updated SSCs, and if so, how?; and (2) how can new data or interpretations developed by a small subset of the technical community be weighed against and potentially combined with a SSC model that was originally developed to capture the "center, body and range" of the technical community?

Exploring the Differences Between the European (SHARE) and the Reference Italian Seismic Hazard Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visini, F.; Meletti, C.; D'Amico, V.; Rovida, A.; Stucchi, M.

2014-12-01

The recent release of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model for Europe by the SHARE project (Giardini et al., 2013, www.share-eu.org) arises questions about the comparison between its results for Italy and the official Italian seismic hazard model (MPS04; Stucchi et al., 2011) adopted by the building code. The goal of such a comparison is identifying the main input elements that produce the differences between the two models. It is worthwhile to remark that each PSHA is realized with data and knowledge available at the time of the release. Therefore, even if a new model provides estimates significantly different from the previous ones that does not mean that old models are wrong, but probably that the current knowledge is strongly changed and improved. Looking at the hazard maps with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (adopted as the standard input in the Italian building code), the SHARE model shows increased expected values with respect to the MPS04 model, up to 70% for PGA. However, looking in detail at all output parameters of both the models, we observe a different behaviour for other spectral accelerations. In fact, for spectral periods greater than 0.3 s, the current reference PSHA for Italy proposes higher values than the SHARE model for many and large areas. This observation suggests that this behaviour could not be due to a different definition of seismic sources and relevant seismicity rates; it mainly seems the result of the adoption of recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that estimate higher values for PGA and for accelerations with periods lower than 0.3 s and lower values for higher periods with respect to old GMPEs. Another important set of tests consisted in analysing separately the PSHA results obtained by the three source models adopted in SHARE (i.e., area sources, fault sources with background, and a refined smoothed seismicity model), whereas MPS04 only uses area sources. Results seem to confirm the strong impact of the new generation GMPEs on the seismic hazard estimates. Giardini D. et al., 2013. Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE): Online Data Resource, doi:10.12686/SED-00000001-SHARE. Stucchi M. et al., 2011. Seismic Hazard Assessment (2003-2009) for the Italian Building Code. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 101, 1885-1911.

CyberShake Physics-Based PSHA in Central California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callaghan, S.; Maechling, P. J.; Goulet, C. A.; Milner, K. R.; Graves, R. W.; Olsen, K. B.; Jordan, T. H.

2017-12-01

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has developed a simulation platform, CyberShake, which performs physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analyis (PSHA) using 3D deterministic wave propagation simulations. CyberShake performs PSHA by simulating a wavefield of Strain Green Tensors. An earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) is then extended by varying hypocenters and slips on finite faults, generating about 500,000 events per site of interest. Seismic reciprocity is used to calculate synthetic seismograms, which are processed to obtain intensity measures (IMs) such as RotD100. These are combined with ERF probabilities to produce hazard curves. PSHA results from hundreds of locations across a region are interpolated to produce a hazard map. CyberShake simulations with SCEC 3D Community Velocity Models have shown how the site and path effects vary with differences in upper crustal structure, and they are particularly informative about epistemic uncertainties in basin effects, which are not well parameterized by depths to iso-velocity surfaces, common inputs to GMPEs. In 2017, SCEC performed CyberShake Study 17.3, expanding into Central California for the first time. Seismic hazard calculations were performed at 1 Hz at 438 sites, using both a 3D tomographically-derived central California velocity model and a regionally averaged 1D model. Our simulation volumes extended outside of Central California, so we included other SCEC velocity models and developed a smoothing algorithm to minimize reflection and refraction effects along interfaces. CyberShake Study 17.3 ran for 31 days on NCSA's Blue Waters and ORNL's Titan supercomputers, burning 21.6 million core-hours and producing 285 million two-component seismograms and 43 billion IMs. These results demonstrate that CyberShake can be successfully expanded into new regions, and lend insights into the effects of directivity-basin coupling associated with basins near major faults such as the San Andreas. In particular, we observe in the 3D results that basin amplification for sites in the southern San Joaquin Valley is less than for sites in smaller basins such as around Ventura. We will present CyberShake hazard estimates from the 1D and 3D models, compare results to those from previous CyberShake studies and GMPEs, and describe our future plans.

Setting the Stage for Harmonized Risk Assessment by Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woessner, Jochen; Giardini, Domenico; SHARE Consortium

2010-05-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is arguably one of the most useful products that seismology can offer to society. PSHA characterizes the best available knowledge on the seismic hazard of a study area, ideally taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Results form the baseline for informed decision making, such as building codes or insurance rates and provide essential input to each risk assessment application. Several large scale national and international projects have recently been launched aimed at improving and harmonizing PSHA standards around the globe. SHARE (www.share-eu.org) is the European Commission funded project in the Framework Programme 7 (FP-7) that will create an updated, living seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. SHARE is a regional component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM, www.globalquakemodel.org), a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the OECD-GSF. GEM aims to be the uniform, independent and open access standard to calculate and communicate earthquake hazard and risk worldwide. SHARE itself will deliver measurable progress in all steps leading to a harmonized assessment of seismic hazard - in the definition of engineering requirements, in the collection of input data, in procedures for hazard assessment, and in engineering applications. SHARE scientists will create a unified framework and computational infrastructure for seismic hazard assessment and produce an integrated European probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model and specific scenario based modeling tools. The results will deliver long-lasting structural impact in areas of societal and economic relevance, they will serve as reference for the Eurocode 8 (EC8) application, and will provide homogeneous input for the correct seismic safety assessment for critical industry, such as the energy infrastructures and the re-insurance sector. SHARE will cover the whole European territory, the Maghreb countries in the Southern Mediterranean and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. By strongly including the seismic engineering community, the project maintains a direct connection to the Eurocode 8 applications and the definition of the Nationally Determined Parameters, through the participation of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in the definition of the output specification requirements and in the hazard validation. SHARE will thus produce direct outputs for risk assessment. With this contribution, we focus on providing an overview of the goals and current achievement of the project.

Evaluation of Nevada Test Site Ground Motion and Rock Property Data to Bound Ground Motions at the Yucca Mountain Repository

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchings, L J; Foxall, W; Rambo, J

2005-02-14

Yucca Mountain licensing will require estimation of ground motions from probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) with annual probabilities of exceedance on the order of 10{sup -6} to 10{sup -7} per year or smaller, which correspond to much longer earthquake return periods than most previous PSHA studies. These long return periods for the Yucca Mountain PSHA result in estimates of ground motion that are extremely high ({approx} 10 g) and that are believed to be physically unrealizable. However, there is at present no generally accepted method to bound ground motions either by showing that the physical properties of materials cannot maintainmore » such extreme motions, or the energy release by the source for such large motions is physically impossible. The purpose of this feasibility study is to examine recorded ground motion and rock property data from nuclear explosions to determine its usefulness for studying the ground motion from extreme earthquakes. The premise is that nuclear explosions are an extreme energy density source, and that the recorded ground motion will provide useful information about the limits of ground motion from extreme earthquakes. The data were categorized by the source and rock properties, and evaluated as to what extent non-linearity in the material has affected the recordings. They also compiled existing results of non-linear dynamic modeling of the explosions carried out by LLNL and other institutions. They conducted an extensive literature review to outline current understanding of extreme ground motion. They also analyzed the data in terms of estimating maximum ground motions at Yucca Mountain.« less

Evaluation of Nevada Test Site Ground Motion and Rock Property Data to Bound Ground Motions at the Yucca Mountain Repository

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchings, L H; Foxall, W; Rambo, J

2005-03-09

Yucca Mountain licensing will require estimation of ground motions from probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) with annual probabilities of exceedance on the order of 10{sup -6} to 10{sup -7} per year or smaller, which correspond to much longer earthquake return periods than most previous PSHA studies. These long return periods for the Yucca Mountain PSHA result in estimates of ground motion that are extremely high ({approx} 10 g) and that are believed to be physically unrealizable. However, there is at present no generally accepted method to bound ground motions either by showing that the physical properties of materials cannot maintainmore » such extreme motions, or the energy release by the source for such large motions is physically impossible. The purpose of this feasibility study is to examine recorded ground motion and rock property data from nuclear explosions to determine its usefulness for studying the ground motion from extreme earthquakes. The premise is that nuclear explosions are an extreme energy density source, and that the recorded ground motion will provide useful information about the limits of ground motion from extreme earthquakes. The data were categorized by the source and rock properties, and evaluated as to what extent non-linearity in the material has affected the recordings. They also compiled existing results of non-linear dynamic modeling of the explosions carried out by LLNL and other institutions. They conducted an extensive literature review to outline current understanding of extreme ground motion. They also analyzed the data in terms of estimating maximum ground motions at Yucca Mountain.« less

Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Radiation on Rough Faults for Simulation-Based PSHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. M.; Galis, M.; Thingbaijam, K. K. S.; Vyas, J. C.; Dunham, E. M.

2017-12-01

Simulation-based ground-motion predictions may augment PSHA studies in data-poor regions or provide additional shaking estimations, incl. seismic waveforms, for critical facilities. Validation and calibration of such simulation approaches, based on observations and GMPE's, is important for engineering applications, while seismologists push to include the precise physics of the earthquake rupture process and seismic wave propagation in 3D heterogeneous Earth. Geological faults comprise both large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness that determine the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process and its radiated seismic wavefield. We investigate how different parameterizations of fractal fault roughness affect the rupture evolution and resulting near-fault ground motions. Rupture incoherence induced by fault roughness generates realistic ω-2 decay for high-frequency displacement amplitude spectra. Waveform characteristics and GMPE-based comparisons corroborate that these rough-fault rupture simulations generate realistic synthetic seismogram for subsequent engineering application. Since dynamic rupture simulations are computationally expensive, we develop kinematic approximations that emulate the observed dynamics. Simplifying the rough-fault geometry, we find that perturbations in local moment tensor orientation are important, while perturbations in local source location are not. Thus, a planar fault can be assumed if the local strike, dip, and rake are maintained. The dynamic rake angle variations are anti-correlated with local dip angles. Based on a dynamically consistent Yoffe source-time function, we show that the seismic wavefield of the approximated kinematic rupture well reproduces the seismic radiation of the full dynamic source process. Our findings provide an innovative pseudo-dynamic source characterization that captures fault roughness effects on rupture dynamics. Including the correlations between kinematic source parameters, we present a new pseudo-dynamic rupture modeling approach for computing broadband ground-motion time-histories for simulation-based PSHA

Fault- and Area-Based PSHA in Nepal using OpenQuake: New Insights from the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha-Nepal Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Victoria

2017-04-01

The 2015 Gorkha-Nepal M7.8 earthquake (hereafter known simply as the Gorkha earthquake) highlights the seismic risk in Nepal, allows better characterization of the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), and enables comparison of recorded ground-motions with predicted ground-motions. These new data, together with recent paleoseismic studies and geodetic-based coupling models, allow for good parameterization of the fault characteristics. Other faults in Nepal remain less well studied. Unlike previous PSHA studies in Nepal that are exclusively area-based, we use a mix of faults and areas to describe six seismic sources in Nepal. For each source, the Gutenberg-Richter a and b values are found, and the maximum magnitude earthquake estimated, using a combination of earthquake catalogs, moment conservation principals and similarities to other tectonic regions. The MHT and Karakoram fault are described as fault sources, whereas four other sources - normal faulting in N-S trending grabens of northern Nepal, strike-slip faulting in both eastern and western Nepal, and background seismicity - are described as area sources. We use OpenQuake (http://openquake.org/) to carry out the analysis, and peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 2 and 10% chance in 50 years is found for Nepal, along with hazard curves at various locations. We compare this PSHA model with previous area-based models of Nepal. The Main Himalayan Thrust is the principal seismic hazard in Nepal so we study the effects of changing several parameters associated with this fault. We compare ground shaking predicted from various fault geometries suggested from the Gorkha earthquake with each other, and with a simple model of a flat fault. We also show the results from incorporating a coupling model based on geodetic data and microseismicity, which limits the down-dip extent of rupture. There have been no ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed specifically for Nepal, so we compare the results of standard GMPEs used together with an earthquake-scenario representing that of the Gorkha earthquake, with actual data from the Gorkha earthquake itself. The Gorkha earthquake also highlighted the importance of basin-, topographic- and directivity-effects, and the location of high-frequency sources, on influencing ground motion. Future study aims at incorporating the above, together with consideration of the fault-rupture history and its influence on the location and timing of future earthquakes.

New predictive equations for Arias intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stafford, Peter J.; Berrill, John B.; Pettinga, Jarg R.

2009-01-01

Arias Intensity (Arias, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, pp 438-483, 1970) is an important measure of the strength of a ground motion, as it is able to simultaneously reflect multiple characteristics of the motion in question. Recently, the effectiveness of Arias Intensity as a predictor of the likelihood of damage to short-period structures has been demonstrated, reinforcing the utility of Arias Intensity for use in both structural and geotechnical applications. In light of this utility, Arias Intensity has begun to be considered as a ground-motion measure suitable for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and earthquake loss estimation. It is therefore timely to develop predictive equations for this ground-motion measure. In this study, a suite of four predictive equations, each using a different functional form, is derived for the prediction of Arias Intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand. The provision of a suite of models is included to allow for epistemic uncertainty to be considered within a PSHA framework. Coefficients are presented for four different horizontal-component definitions for each of the four models. The ground-motion dataset for which the equations are derived include records from New Zealand crustal earthquakes as well as near-field records from worldwide crustal earthquakes. The predictive equations may be used to estimate Arias Intensity for moment magnitudes between 5.1 and 7.5 and for distances (both rjb and rrup) up to 300 km.

Parameter estimation in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: current problems and some solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, Petrus

2017-04-01

A typical Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) comprises identification of seismic source zones, determination of hazard parameters for these zones, selection of an appropriate ground motion prediction equation (GMPE), and integration over probabilities according the Cornell-McGuire procedure. Determination of hazard parameters often does not receive the attention it deserves, and, therefore, problems therein are often overlooked. Here, many of these problems are identified, and some of them addressed. The parameters that need to be identified are those associated with the frequency-magnitude law, those associated with earthquake recurrence law in time, and the parameters controlling the GMPE. This study is concerned with the frequency-magnitude law and temporal distribution of earthquakes, and not with GMPEs. TheGutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude law is usually adopted for the frequency-magnitude law, and a Poisson process for earthquake recurrence in time. Accordingly, the parameters that need to be determined are the slope parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude law, i.e. the b-value, the maximum value at which the Gutenberg-Richter law applies mmax, and the mean recurrence frequency,λ, of earthquakes. If, instead of the Cornell-McGuire, the "Parametric-Historic procedure" is used, these parameters do not have to be known before the PSHA computations, they are estimated directly during the PSHA computation. The resulting relation for the frequency of ground motion vibration parameters has an analogous functional form to the frequency-magnitude law, which is described by parameters γ (analogous to the b¬-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law) and the maximum possible ground motion amax (analogous to mmax). Originally, the approach was possible to apply only to the simple GMPE, however, recently a method was extended to incorporate more complex forms of GMPE's. With regards to the parameter mmax, there are numerous methods of estimation, none of which is accepted as the standard one. There is also much controversy surrounding this parameter. In practice, when estimating the above mentioned parameters from seismic catalogue, the magnitude, mmin, from which a seismic catalogue is complete becomes important.Thus, the parameter mmin is also considered as a parameter to be estimated in practice. Several methods are discussed in the literature, and no specific method is preferred. Methods usually aim at identifying the point where a frequency-magnitude plot starts to deviate from linearity due to data loss. Parameter estimation is clearly a rich field which deserves much attention and, possibly standardization, of methods. These methods should be the sound and efficient, and a query into which methods are to be used - and for that matter which ones are not to be used - is in order.

A reliable simultaneous representation of seismic hazard and of ground shaking recurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.; Magrin, A.; Vaccari, F.

2015-12-01

Different earthquake hazard maps may be appropriate for different purposes - such as emergency management, insurance and engineering design. Accounting for the lower occurrence rate of larger sporadic earthquakes may allow to formulate cost-effective policies in some specific applications, provided that statistically sound recurrence estimates are used, which is not typically the case of PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment). We illustrate the procedure to associate the expected ground motions from Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) to an estimate of their recurrence. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for the construction of a broad range of earthquake scenarios via full waveforms modeling. From the synthetic seismograms the estimates of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement, or any other parameter relevant to seismic engineering, can be extracted. NDSHA, in its standard form, defines the hazard computed from a wide set of scenario earthquakes (including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake, MCE) and it does not supply the frequency of occurrence of the expected ground shaking. A recent enhanced variant of NDSHA that reliably accounts for recurrence has been developed and it is applied to the Italian territory. The characterization of the frequency-magnitude relation can be performed by any statistically sound method supported by data (e.g. multi-scale seismicity model), so that a recurrence estimate is associated to each of the pertinent sources. In this way a standard NDSHA map of ground shaking is obtained simultaneously with the map of the corresponding recurrences. The introduction of recurrence estimates in NDSHA naturally allows for the generation of ground shaking maps at specified return periods. This permits a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for a nuclear power plant site in southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Almeida, Andréia Abreu Diniz; Assumpção, Marcelo; Bommer, Julian J.; Drouet, Stéphane; Riccomini, Claudio; Prates, Carlos L. M.

2018-05-01

A site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been performed for the only nuclear power plant site in Brazil, located 130 km southwest of Rio de Janeiro at Angra dos Reis. Logic trees were developed for both the seismic source characterisation and ground-motion characterisation models, in both cases seeking to capture the appreciable ranges of epistemic uncertainty with relatively few branches. This logic-tree structure allowed the hazard calculations to be performed efficiently while obtaining results that reflect the inevitable uncertainty in long-term seismic hazard assessment in this tectonically stable region. An innovative feature of the study is an additional seismic source zone added to capture the potential contributions of characteristics earthquake associated with geological faults in the region surrounding the coastal site.

Three-dimensional ground-motion simulations of earthquakes for the Hanford area, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Thorne, Paul; Rohay, Alan

2014-01-01

This report describes the results of ground-motion simulations of earthquakes using three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) crustal models conducted for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of the Hanford facility, Washington, under the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) guidelines. The first portion of this report demonstrates that the 3D seismic velocity model for the area produces synthetic seismograms with characteristics (spectral response values, duration) that better match those of the observed recordings of local earthquakes, compared to a 1D model with horizontal layers. The second part of the report compares the response spectra of synthetics from 3D and 1D models for moment magnitude (M) 6.6–6.8 earthquakes on three nearby faults and for a dipping plane wave source meant to approximate regional S-waves from a Cascadia great earthquake. The 1D models are specific to each site used for the PSHA. The use of the 3D model produces spectral response accelerations at periods of 0.5–2.0 seconds as much as a factor of 4.5 greater than those from the 1D models for the crustal fault sources. The spectral accelerations of the 3D synthetics for the Cascadia plane-wave source are as much as a factor of 9 greater than those from the 1D models. The differences between the spectral accelerations for the 3D and 1D models are most pronounced for sites with thicker supra-basalt sediments and for stations with earthquakes on the Rattlesnake Hills fault and for the Cascadia plane-wave source.

Seismic hazard and risk assessment in the intraplate environment: The New Madrid seismic zone of the central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Z.

2007-01-01

Although the causes of large intraplate earthquakes are still not fully understood, they pose certain hazard and risk to societies. Estimating hazard and risk in these regions is difficult because of lack of earthquake records. The New Madrid seismic zone is one such region where large and rare intraplate earthquakes (M = 7.0 or greater) pose significant hazard and risk. Many different definitions of hazard and risk have been used, and the resulting estimates differ dramatically. In this paper, seismic hazard is defined as the natural phenomenon generated by earthquakes, such as ground motion, and is quantified by two parameters: a level of hazard and its occurrence frequency or mean recurrence interval; seismic risk is defined as the probability of occurrence of a specific level of seismic hazard over a certain time and is quantified by three parameters: probability, a level of hazard, and exposure time. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), a commonly used method for estimating seismic hazard and risk, derives a relationship between a ground motion parameter and its return period (hazard curve). The return period is not an independent temporal parameter but a mathematical extrapolation of the recurrence interval of earthquakes and the uncertainty of ground motion. Therefore, it is difficult to understand and use PSHA. A new method is proposed and applied here for estimating seismic hazard in the New Madrid seismic zone. This method provides hazard estimates that are consistent with the state of our knowledge and can be easily applied to other intraplate regions. ?? 2007 The Geological Society of America.

Evaluating the Use of Declustering for Induced Seismicity Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

2016-12-01

The recent dramatic seismicity rate increase in the central and eastern US (CEUS) has motivated the development of seismic hazard assessments for induced seismicity (e.g., Petersen et al., 2016). Standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) relies fundamentally on the assumption that seismicity is Poissonian (Cornell, BSSA, 1968); therefore, the earthquake catalogs used in PSHA are typically declustered (e.g., Petersen et al., 2014) even though this may remove earthquakes that may cause damage or concern (Petersen et al., 2015; 2016). In some induced earthquake sequences in the CEUS, the standard declustering can remove up to 90% of the sequence, reducing the estimated seismicity rate by a factor of 10 compared to estimates from the complete catalog. In tectonic regions the reduction is often only about a factor of 2. We investigate how three declustering methods treat induced seismicity: the window-based Gardner-Knopoff (GK) algorithm, often used for PSHA (Gardner and Knopoff, BSSA, 1974); the link-based Reasenberg algorithm (Reasenberg, JGR,1985); and a stochastic declustering method based on a space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (Ogata, JASA, 1988; Zhuang et al., JASA, 2002). We apply these methods to three catalogs that likely contain some induced seismicity. For the Guy-Greenbrier, AR earthquake swarm from 2010-2013, declustering reduces the seismicity rate by factors of 6-14, depending on the algorithm. In northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas from 2010-2015, the reduction varies from factors of 1.5-20. In the Salton Trough of southern California from 1975-2013, the rate is reduced by factors of 3-20. Stochastic declustering tends to remove the most events, followed by the GK method, while the Reasenberg method removes the fewest. Given that declustering and choice of algorithm have such a large impact on the resulting seismicity rate estimates, we suggest that more accurate hazard assessments may be found using the complete catalog.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biasi, Glenn; Anderson, John G

The parameter kappa was defined by Anderson and Hough (1984) to describe the high-frequency spectral roll-off of the strong motion seismic spectrum. In the work of Su et al., (1996) the numerical value of kappa estimated for sites near Yucca Mountain was small (~20 ms). The estimate obtained from these events has been applied through a rigorous methodology to develop design earthquake spectra with magnitude over 5.0. Smaller values of kappa lead to higher estimated ground motions in the methodology used by the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for Yucca Mountain. An increase of 10 ms in kappa could resultmore » in a substantial decrease in the high frequency level of the predicted ground motions. Any parameter that plays such a critical role deserves close examination. Here, we study kappa and its associated uncertainties. The data set used by Su et al (1996) consisted of 12 M 2.8 to 4.5 earthquakes recorded at temporary stations deployed after the June 1992 Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The kappa elements of that study were revisited by Anderson and Su (MOL.20071203.0134) and substantially confirmed. One weakness of those studies is the limited data used. Few of these stations were on tuff or on Yucca Mountain itself. A decade of Southern Great Basin Digital Seismic Network (SGBDSN) recording has now yielded a larger body of on-scale, well calibrated digital ground motion records suitable for investigating kappa. We use the SGBDSN data to check some of the original assumptions, improve the statistical confidence of the conclusions, and determine values of kappa for stations on or near Yucca Mountain. The outstanding issues in kappa analysis, as they apply to Yucca Mountain, include: 1. The number itself. The kappa estimate near 20 msec from Su et al. (1996) and Anderson and Su (MOL.20071203.0134) is markedly smaller than is considered typical in California (Silva, 1995). The low kappa value has engineering consequences because when it is applied in ground motions analyses used in PSHA, it contributes to the extreme values of peak ground acceleration that the PSHA predicts. Also, in some areas precarious rock evidence indicates that no such accelerations have occurred. 2. The disagreement among analyses in the value of kappa. Previous reports indicate that smallest earthquakes yield kappa estimate 12-20 msec larger than average values from M3 to M4.5 aftershocks of Little Skull Mountain earthquake. 3. The source of kappa. Classically and in engineering usage, kappa is attributed largely to the upper tens or hundreds of meters at the recording site. However, borehole recordings imply that a significant contribution to kappa originates below several hundred meters depth. Also, when earthquakes are considered from a small source region, a true site effect should be common to all recordings. In fact kappa observations of LSM aftershocks to stations on Yucca Mountain and at network stations appear to vary greatly, as though much of kappa actually derives from near the seismic source. 4. The repository overburden contribution to kappa. PSHA estimated ground motions to a free surface at 300 meters depth with properties of confined rock at that depth. Rock mechanical and borehole estimates suggest that several milliseconds of the total kappa accrue between 300 meters to the surface. If estimates of kappa are small at the surface, little is left to reduce incident ground accelerations from the seismic source to the repository level. 5. The variability of kappa. In most cases parametric estimates of kappa have some range of values that fit the data equally well in a statistical sense, so errors in kappa estimates must be addressed. As noted above, kappa at a station also varies significantly for events from the same source area. 6. Are kappa values from small to moderate magnitude earthquakes appropriately applied to the larger, potentially damaging earthquakes of engineering concern? Put another way, is there a significant magnitude dependence in kappa? Questions 1 and 6 are of primary importance, but we find answers to several others in the course of our study. Data from southern Nevada are capable of resolving only some of these questions. In a global search, we identified data from the Japanese borehole accelerometer array KiKNet as most likely to address the questions of the shallow site structural contribution to kappa and the usefulness of moderate earthquake kappa estimates to predict strong ground motion.« less

Probabilistic versus deterministic hazard assessment in liquefaction susceptible zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, Rosastella; Gerosa, Daniele; Marcellini, Alberto; Tento, Alberto

2015-04-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), usually adopted in the framework of seismic codes redaction, is based on Poissonian description of the temporal occurrence, negative exponential distribution of magnitude and attenuation relationship with log-normal distribution of PGA or response spectrum. The main positive aspect of this approach stems into the fact that is presently a standard for the majority of countries, but there are weak points in particular regarding the physical description of the earthquake phenomenon. Factors like site effects, source characteristics like duration of the strong motion and directivity that could significantly influence the expected motion at the site are not taken into account by PSHA. Deterministic models can better evaluate the ground motion at a site from a physical point of view, but its prediction reliability depends on the degree of knowledge of the source, wave propagation and soil parameters. We compare these two approaches in selected sites affected by the May 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, that caused widespread liquefaction phenomena unusually for magnitude less than 6. We focus on sites liquefiable because of their soil mechanical parameters and water table level. Our analysis shows that the choice between deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis is strongly dependent on site conditions. The looser the soil and the higher the liquefaction potential, the more suitable is the deterministic approach. Source characteristics, in particular the duration of strong ground motion, have long since recognized as relevant to induce liquefaction; unfortunately a quantitative prediction of these parameters appears very unlikely, dramatically reducing the possibility of their adoption in hazard assessment. Last but not least, the economic factors are relevant in the choice of the approach. The case history of 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, with an officially estimated cost of 6 billions Euros, shows that geological and geophysical investigations necessary to assess a reliable deterministic hazard evaluation are largely justified.

Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

2015-12-01

The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and resultant loss of income produces widespread default on payments. With increased computational power and more complete inventories of exposure, Monte Carlo methods may provide more accurate estimation of severe losses and the opportunity to increase resilience of vulnerable systems and communities.

Analysis of mean seismic ground motion and its uncertainty based on the UCERF3 geologic slip rate model with uncertainty for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeng, Yuehua

2018-01-01

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model (Field et al., 2014) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered about their mean value and do not reflect the broader distribution of possible rates and associated probabilities. Here, we consider both a double‐truncated 2σ Gaussian and a boxcar distribution of slip rates and use a Monte Carlo simulation to sample the entire range of the distribution for California fault‐slip rates. We compute the seismic hazard following the methodology and logic‐tree branch weights applied to the 2014 national seismic hazard model (NSHM) for the western U.S. region (Petersen et al., 2014, 2015). By applying a new approach developed in this study to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using precomputed rates of exceedance from each fault as a Green’s function, we reduce the computer time by about 10^5‐fold and apply it to the mean PSHA estimates with 1000 Monte Carlo samples of fault‐slip rates to compare with results calculated using only the mean or preferred slip rates. The difference in the mean probabilistic peak ground motion corresponding to a 2% in 50‐yr probability of exceedance is less than 1% on average over all of California for both the Gaussian and boxcar probability distributions for slip‐rate uncertainty but reaches about 18% in areas near faults compared with that calculated using the mean or preferred slip rates. The average uncertainties in 1σ peak ground‐motion level are 5.5% and 7.3% of the mean with the relative maximum uncertainties of 53% and 63% for the Gaussian and boxcar probability density function (PDF), respectively.

PSHAe (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard enhanced): the case of Istanbul.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stupazzini, Marco; Allmann, Alexander; Infantino, Maria; Kaeser, Martin; Mazzieri, Ilario; Paolucci, Roberto; Smerzini, Chiara

2016-04-01

The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) only relying on GMPEs tends to be insufficiently constrained at short distances and data only partially account for the rupture process, seismic wave propagation and three-dimensional (3D) complex configurations. Given a large and representative set of numerical results from 3D scenarios, analysing the resulting database from a statistical point of view and implementing the results as a generalized attenuation function (GAF) into the classical PSHA might be an appealing way to deal with this problem (Villani et al., 2014). Nonetheless, the limited amount of computational resources or time available tend to pose substantial constrains in a broad application of the previous method and, furthermore, the method is only partially suitable for taking into account the spatial correlation of ground motion as modelled by each forward physics-based simulation (PBS). Given that, we envision a streamlined and alternative implementation of the previous approach, aiming at selecting a limited number of scenarios wisely chosen and associating them a probability of occurrence. The experience gathered in the past year regarding 3D modelling of seismic wave propagation in complex alluvial basin (Pilz et al., 2011, Guidotti et al., 2011, Smerzini and Villani, 2012) allowed us to enhance the choice of simulated scenarios in order to explore the variability of ground motion, preserving the full spatial correlation necessary for risk modelling, on one hand and on the other the simulated losses for a given location and a given building stock. 3D numerical modelling of scenarios occurring the North Anatolian Fault in the proximity of Istanbul are carried out through the spectral element code SPEED (http://speed.mox.polimi.it). The results are introduced in a PSHA, exploiting the capabilities of the proposed methodology against a traditional approach based on GMPE. References Guidotti R, M Stupazzini, C Smerzini, R Paolucci, P Ramieri, "Numerical Study on the Role of Basin Geometry and Kinematic Seismic Source in 3D Ground Motion Simulation of the 22 February 2011 M-W 6.2 Christchurch Earthquake", SRL 11/2011; 82(6):767-782. DOI:10.1785/gssrl.82.6.767 Pilz M,Parolai S, Stupazzini M, Paolucci P and Zschau J, "Modelling basin effects on earthquake ground motion in the Santiago de Chile basin by a spectral element code", GJI 11/2011, 187(2):929-945. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05183.x Smerzini C and Villani M, "Broadband Numerical Simulations in Complex Near-Field Geological Configurations: The Case of the 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila Earthquake", BSSA 12/2012; 102(6):2436-2451. DOI:10.1785/0120120002 Villani M, Faccioli E, Ordaz M, Stupazzini M, "High-Resolution Seismic Hazard Analysis in a Complex Geological Configuration: The Case of the Sulmona Basin in Central Italy", Earthquake Spectra, 11/2014; 30(4):1801-1824. DOI: 10.1193/112911EQS288M

Forecasting the Rupture Directivity of Large Earthquakes: Centroid Bias of the Conditional Hypocenter Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, J.; Jordan, T. H.

2012-12-01

Forecasting the rupture directivity of large earthquakes is an important problem in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), because directivity is known to strongly influence ground motions. We describe how rupture directivity can be forecast in terms of the "conditional hypocenter distribution" or CHD, defined to be the probability distribution of a hypocenter given the spatial distribution of moment release (fault slip). The simplest CHD is a uniform distribution, in which the hypocenter probability density equals the moment-release probability density. For rupture models in which the rupture velocity and rise time depend only on the local slip, the CHD completely specifies the distribution of the directivity parameter D, defined in terms of the degree-two polynomial moments of the source space-time function. This parameter, which is zero for a bilateral rupture and unity for a unilateral rupture, can be estimated from finite-source models or by the direct inversion of seismograms (McGuire et al., 2002). We compile D-values from published studies of 65 large earthquakes and show that these data are statistically inconsistent with the uniform CHD advocated by McGuire et al. (2002). Instead, the data indicate a "centroid biased" CHD, in which the expected distance between the hypocenter and the hypocentroid is less than that of a uniform CHD. In other words, the observed directivities appear to be closer to bilateral than predicted by this simple model. We discuss the implications of these results for rupture dynamics and fault-zone heterogeneities. We also explore their PSHA implications by modifying the CyberShake simulation-based hazard model for the Los Angeles region, which assumed a uniform CHD (Graves et al., 2011).

When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy - Part 2: Computational implementation and first results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peruzza, Laura; Azzaro, Raffaele; Gee, Robin; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Lombardo, Giuseppe; Pace, Bruno; Pagani, Marco; Panzera, Francesco; Ordaz, Mario; Suarez, Miguel Leonardo; Tusa, Giuseppina

2017-11-01

This paper describes the model implementation and presents results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Mt. Etna volcanic region in Sicily, Italy, considering local volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Working in a volcanic region presents new challenges not typically faced in standard PSHA, which are broadly due to the nature of the local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, the cone shape of the volcano and the attenuation properties of seismic waves in the volcanic region. These have been accounted for through the development of a seismic source model that integrates data from different disciplines (historical and instrumental earthquake datasets, tectonic data, etc.; presented in Part 1, by Azzaro et al., 2017) and through the development and software implementation of original tools for the computation, such as a new ground-motion prediction equation and magnitude-scaling relationship specifically derived for this volcanic area, and the capability to account for the surficial topography in the hazard calculation, which influences source-to-site distances. Hazard calculations have been carried out after updating the most recent releases of two widely used PSHA software packages (CRISIS, as in Ordaz et al., 2013; the OpenQuake engine, as in Pagani et al., 2014). Results are computed for short- to mid-term exposure times (10 % probability of exceedance in 5 and 30 years, Poisson and time dependent) and spectral amplitudes of engineering interest. A preliminary exploration of the impact of site-specific response is also presented for the densely inhabited Etna's eastern flank, and the change in expected ground motion is finally commented on. These results do not account for M > 6 regional seismogenic sources which control the hazard at long return periods. However, by focusing on the impact of M < 6 local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, which dominate the hazard at the short- to mid-term exposure times considered in this study, we present a different viewpoint that, in our opinion, is relevant for retrofitting the existing buildings and for driving impending interventions of risk reduction.

Forecasting induced seismicity rate and Mmax using calibrated numerical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempsey, D.; Suckale, J.

2016-12-01

At Groningen, The Netherlands, several decades of induced seismicity from gas extraction has culminated in a M 3.6 event (mid 2012). From a public safety and commercial perspective, it is desirable to anticipate future seismicity outcomes at Groningen. One way to quantify earthquake risk is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), which requires an estimate of the future seismicity rate and its magnitude frequency distribution (MFD). This approach is effective at quantifying risk from tectonic events because the seismicity rate, once measured, is almost constant over timescales of interest. In contrast, rates of induced seismicity vary significantly over building lifetimes, largely in response to changes in injection or extraction. Thus, the key to extending PSHA to induced earthquakes is to estimate future changes of the seismicity rate in response to some proposed operating schedule. Numerical models can describe the physical link between fluid pressure, effective stress change, and the earthquake process (triggering and propagation). However, models with predictive potential of individual earthquakes face the difficulty of characterizing specific heterogeneity - stress, strength, roughness, etc. - at locations of interest. Modeling catalogs of earthquakes provides a means of averaging over this uncertainty, focusing instead on the collective features of the seismicity, e.g., its rate and MFD. The model we use incorporates fluid pressure and stress changes to describe nucleation and crack-like propagation of earthquakes on stochastically characterized 1D faults. This enables simulation of synthetic catalogs of induced seismicity from which the seismicity rate, location and MFD are extracted. A probability distribution for Mmax - the largest event in some specified time window - is also computed. Because the model captures the physics linking seismicity to changes in the reservoir, earthquake observations and operating information can be used to calibrate a model at a specific site (or, ideally, many models). This restricts analysis of future seismicity to likely parameter sets and provides physical justification for linking operational changes to subsequent seismicity. To illustrate these concepts, a recent study of prior and forecast seismicity at Groningen will be presented.

Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

2014-01-01

We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

Dominant seismic sources for the cities in South Sumatra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunardi, Bambang; Sakya, Andi Eka; Masturyono, Murjaya, Jaya; Rohadi, Supriyanto; Sulastri, Putra, Ade Surya

2017-07-01

Subduction zone along west of Sumatra and Sumatran fault zone are active seismic sources. Seismotectonically, South Sumatra could be affected by earthquakes triggered by these seismic sources. This paper discussed contribution of each seismic source to earthquake hazards for cities of Palembang, Prabumulih, Banyuasin, OganIlir, Ogan Komering Ilir, South Oku, Musi Rawas and Empat Lawang. These hazards are presented in form of seismic hazard curves. The study was conducted by using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Seismic sources used in analysis included megathrust zone M2 of Sumatra and South Sumatra, background seismic sources and shallow crustal seismic sources consist of Ketaun, Musi, Manna and Kumering faults. The results of the study showed that for cities relatively far from the seismic sources, subduction / megathrust seismic source with a depth ≤ 50 km greatly contributed to the seismic hazard and the other areas showed deep background seismic sources with a depth of more than 100 km dominate to seismic hazard respectively.

B-value and slip rate sensitivity analysis for PGA value in Lembang fault and Cimandiri fault area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratama, Cecep; Ito, Takeo; Meilano, Irwan; Nugraha, Andri Dian

2017-07-01

We examine slip rate and b-value contribution of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), in probabilistic seismic hazard maps (10% probability of exceedence in 50 years or 500 years return period). Hazard curve of PGA have been investigated for Sukabumi and Bandung using a PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis). We observe that the most influence in the hazard estimate is crustal fault. Monte Carlo approach has been developed to assess the sensitivity. Uncertainty and coefficient of variation from slip rate and b-value in Lembang and Cimandiri Fault area have been calculated. We observe that seismic hazard estimates are sensitive to fault slip rate and b-value with uncertainty result are 0.25 g dan 0.1-0.2 g, respectively. For specific site, we found seismic hazard estimate are 0.49 + 0.13 g with COV 27% and 0.39 + 0.05 g with COV 13% for Sukabumi and Bandung, respectively.

Monte Carlo simulation for slip rate sensitivity analysis in Cimandiri fault area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pratama, Cecep, E-mail: great.pratama@gmail.com; Meilano, Irwan; Nugraha, Andri Dian

Slip rate is used to estimate earthquake recurrence relationship which is the most influence for hazard level. We examine slip rate contribution of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), in probabilistic seismic hazard maps (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years or 500 years return period). Hazard curve of PGA have been investigated for Sukabumi using a PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis). We observe that the most influence in the hazard estimate is crustal fault. Monte Carlo approach has been developed to assess the sensitivity. Then, Monte Carlo simulations properties have been assessed. Uncertainty and coefficient of variation from slip rate formore » Cimandiri Fault area has been calculated. We observe that seismic hazard estimates is sensitive to fault slip rate with seismic hazard uncertainty result about 0.25 g. For specific site, we found seismic hazard estimate for Sukabumi is between 0.4904 – 0.8465 g with uncertainty between 0.0847 – 0.2389 g and COV between 17.7% – 29.8%.« less

How well should probabilistic seismic hazard maps work?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanneste, K.; Stein, S.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

2016-12-01

Recent large earthquakes that gave rise to shaking much stronger than shown in earthquake hazard maps have stimulated discussion about how well these maps forecast future shaking. These discussions have brought home the fact that although the maps are designed to achieve certain goals, we know little about how well they actually perform. As for any other forecast, this question involves verification and validation. Verification involves assessing how well the algorithm used to produce hazard maps implements the conceptual PSHA model ("have we built the model right?"). Validation asks how well the model forecasts the shaking that actually occurs ("have we built the right model?"). We explore the verification issue by simulating the shaking history of an area with assumed distribution of earthquakes, frequency-magnitude relation, temporal occurrence model, and ground-motion prediction equation. We compare the "observed" shaking at many sites over time to that predicted by a hazard map generated for the same set of parameters. PSHA predicts that the fraction of sites at which shaking will exceed that mapped is p = 1 - exp(t/T), where t is the duration of observations and T is the map's return period. This implies that shaking in large earthquakes is typically greater than shown on hazard maps, as has occurred in a number of cases. A large number of simulated earthquake histories yield distributions of shaking consistent with this forecast, with a scatter about this value that decreases as t/T increases. The median results are somewhat lower than predicted for small values of t/T and approach the predicted value for larger values of t/T. Hence, the algorithm appears to be internally consistent and can be regarded as verified for this set of simulations. Validation is more complicated because a real observed earthquake history can yield a fractional exceedance significantly higher or lower than that predicted while still being consistent with the hazard map in question. As a result, given that in the real world we have only a single sample, it is hard to assess whether a misfit between a map and observations arises by chance or reflects a biased map.

Assessment of the Seismic Risk in the City of Yerevan and its Mitigation by Application of Innovative Seismic Isolation Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melkumyan, Mikayel G.

2011-03-01

It is obvious that the problem of precise assessment and/or analysis of seismic hazard (SHA) is quite a serious issue, and seismic risk reduction considerably depends on it. It is well known that there are two approaches in seismic hazard analysis, namely, deterministic (DSHA) and probabilistic (PSHA). The latter utilizes statistical estimates of earthquake parameters. However, they may not exist in a specific region, and using PSHA it is difficult to take into account local aspects, such as specific regional geology and site effects, with sufficient precision. For this reason, DSHA is preferable in many cases. After the destructive 1988 Spitak earthquake, the SHA of the territory of Armenia has been revised and increased. The distribution pattern for seismic risk in Armenia is given. Maximum seismic risk is concentrated in the region of the capital, the city of Yerevan, where 40% of the republic's population resides. We describe the method used for conducting seismic resistance assessment of the existing reinforced concrete (R/C) buildings. Using this assessment, as well as GIS technology, the coefficients characterizing the seismic risk of destruction were calculated for almost all buildings of Yerevan City. The results of the assessment are presented. It is concluded that, presently, there is a particularly pressing need for strengthening existing buildings. We then describe non-conventional approaches to upgrading the earthquake resistance of existing multistory R/C frame buildings by means of Additional Isolated Upper Floor (AIUF) and of existing stone and frame buildings by means of base isolation. In addition, innovative seismic isolation technologies were developed and implemented in Armenia for construction of new multistory multifunctional buildings. The advantages of these technologies are listed in the paper. It is worth noting that the aforementioned technologies were successfully applied for retrofitting an existing 100-year-old bank building in Irkutsk (Russia), for retrofit design of an existing 177-year-old municipality building in Iasi (Romania) and for construction of a new clinic building in Stepanakert (Nagorno Karabakh). Short descriptions of these projects are presented. Since 1994 the total number of base and roof isolated buildings constructed, retrofitted or under construction in Armenia, has reached 32. Statistics of seismically isolated buildings are given in the paper. The number of base isolated buildings per capita in Armenia is one of the highest in the world. In Armenia, for the first time in history, retrofitting of existing buildings by base isolation was carried out without interruption in the use of the buildings. The description of different base isolated buildings erected in Armenia, as well as the description of the method of retrofitting of existing buildings which is patented in Armenia (M. G. Melkumyan, patent of the Republic of Armenia No. 579), are also given in the paper.

Site-to-Source Finite Fault Distance Probability Distribution in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and the Relationship Between Minimum Distances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, R.; Gutierrez, E.; Carciumaru, D. D.; Huesca-Perez, E.

2017-12-01

We present a method to compute the conditional and no-conditional probability density function (PDF) of the finite fault distance distribution (FFDD). Two cases are described: lines and areas. The case of lines has a simple analytical solution while, in the case of areas, the geometrical probability of a fault based on the strike, dip, and fault segment vertices is obtained using the projection of spheres in a piecewise rectangular surface. The cumulative distribution is computed by measuring the projection of a sphere of radius r in an effective area using an algorithm that estimates the area of a circle within a rectangle. In addition, we introduce the finite fault distance metrics. This distance is the distance where the maximum stress release occurs within the fault plane and generates a peak ground motion. Later, we can apply the appropriate ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) for PSHA. The conditional probability of distance given magnitude is also presented using different scaling laws. A simple model of constant distribution of the centroid at the geometrical mean is discussed, in this model hazard is reduced at the edges because the effective size is reduced. Nowadays there is a trend of using extended source distances in PSHA, however it is not possible to separate the fault geometry from the GMPE. With this new approach, it is possible to add fault rupture models separating geometrical and propagation effects.

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy - Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azzaro, Raffaele; Barberi, Graziella; D'Amico, Salvatore; Pace, Bruno; Peruzza, Laura; Tuvè, Tiziana

2017-11-01

The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. This is largely due to the long record of historical and recent observations of seismic and tectonic phenomena, the high quality of various geophysical monitoring and particularly the rapid geodynamics clearly demonstrate some seismotectonic processes. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). The sources include, with increasing complexity, seismic zones, individual faults and gridded point sources that are obtained by integrating geological field data with long and short earthquake datasets (the historical macroseismic catalogue, which covers about 3 centuries, and a high-quality instrumental location database for the last decades). The analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution identifies two main fault systems within the volcanic complex featuring different seismic rates that are controlled essentially by volcano-tectonic processes. We discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults by using an historical approach and a purely geologic method. We derive a magnitude-size scaling relationship specifically for this volcanic area, which has been implemented into a recently developed software tool - FiSH (Pace et al., 2016) - that we use to calculate the characteristic magnitudes and the related mean recurrence times expected for each fault. Results suggest that for the Mt. Etna area, the traditional assumptions of uniform and Poissonian seismicity can be relaxed; a time-dependent fault-based modeling, joined with a 3-D imaging of volcano-tectonic sources depicted by the recent instrumental seismicity, can therefore be implemented in PSHA maps. They can be relevant for the retrofitting of the existing building stock and for driving risk reduction interventions. These analyses do not account for regional M > 6 seismogenic sources which dominate the hazard over long return times (≥ 500 years).

Insights into earthquake hazard map performance from shaking history simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S.; Vanneste, K.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

2017-12-01

Why recent large earthquakes caused shaking stronger than predicted by earthquake hazard maps is under debate. This issue has two parts. Verification involves how well maps implement probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) ("have we built the map right?"). Validation asks how well maps forecast shaking ("have we built the right map?"). We explore how well a map can ideally perform by simulating an area's shaking history and comparing "observed" shaking to that predicted by a map generated for the same parameters. The simulations yield shaking distributions whose mean is consistent with the map, but individual shaking histories show large scatter. Infrequent large earthquakes cause shaking much stronger than mapped, as observed. Hence, PSHA seems internally consistent and can be regarded as verified. Validation is harder because an earthquake history can yield shaking higher or lower than that predicted while being consistent with the hazard map. The scatter decreases for longer observation times because the largest earthquakes and resulting shaking are increasingly likely to have occurred. For the same reason, scatter is much less for the more active plate boundary than for a continental interior. For a continental interior, where the mapped hazard is low, even an M4 event produces exceedances at some sites. Larger earthquakes produce exceedances at more sites. Thus many exceedances result from small earthquakes, but infrequent large ones may cause very large exceedances. However, for a plate boundary, an M6 event produces exceedance at only a few sites, and an M7 produces them in a larger, but still relatively small, portion of the study area. As reality gives only one history, and a real map involves assumptions about more complicated source geometries and occurrence rates, which are unlikely to be exactly correct and thus will contribute additional scatter, it is hard to assess whether misfit between actual shaking and a map — notably higher-than-mapped shaking — arises by chance or reflects biases in the map. Due to this problem, there are limits to how well we can expect hazard maps to predict future shaking, as well as to our ability to test the performance of a hazard map based on available observations.

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

2014-01-01

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Teamwork tools and activities within the hazard component of the Global Earthquake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Monelli, D.; Danciu, L.

2013-05-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a public-private partnership aimed at supporting and fostering a global community of scientists and engineers working in the fields of seismic hazard and risk assessment. In the hazard sector, in particular, GEM recognizes the importance of local ownership and leadership in the creation of seismic hazard models. For this reason, over the last few years, GEM has been promoting different activities in the context of seismic hazard analysis ranging, for example, from regional projects targeted at the creation of updated seismic hazard studies to the development of a new open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation software called OpenQuake-engine (http://globalquakemodel.org). In this communication we'll provide a tour of the various activities completed, such as the new ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Catalogue, and of currently on-going initiatives like the creation of a suite of tools for the creation of PSHA input models. Discussion, comments and criticism by the colleagues in the audience will be highly appreciated.

Probabilistic seismic hazard study based on active fault and finite element geodynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastelic, Vanja; Carafa, Michele M. C.; Visini, Francesco

2016-04-01

We present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) that is exclusively based on active faults and geodynamic finite element input models whereas seismic catalogues were used only in a posterior comparison. We applied the developed model in the External Dinarides, a slow deforming thrust-and-fold belt at the contact between Adria and Eurasia.. is the Our method consists of establishing s two earthquake rupture forecast models: (i) a geological active fault input (GEO) model and, (ii) a finite element (FEM) model. The GEO model is based on active fault database that provides information on fault location and its geometric and kinematic parameters together with estimations on its slip rate. By default in this model all deformation is set to be released along the active faults. The FEM model is based on a numerical geodynamic model developed for the region of study. In this model the deformation is, besides along the active faults, released also in the volumetric continuum elements. From both models we calculated their corresponding activity rates, its earthquake rates and their final expected peak ground accelerations. We investigated both the source model and the earthquake model uncertainties by varying the main active fault and earthquake rate calculation parameters through constructing corresponding branches of the seismic hazard logic tree. Hazard maps and UHS curves have been produced for horizontal ground motion on bedrock conditions VS 30 ≥ 800 m/s), thereby not considering local site amplification effects. The hazard was computed over a 0.2° spaced grid considering 648 branches of the logic tree and the mean value of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level, while the 5th and 95th percentiles were also computed to investigate the model limits. We conducted a sensitivity analysis to control which of the input parameters influence the final hazard results in which measure. The results of such comparison evidence the deformation model and with their internal variability together with the choice of the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are the most influencing parameter. Both of these parameters have significan affect on the hazard results. Thus having good knowledge of the existence of active faults and their geometric and activity characteristics is of key importance. We also show that PSHA models based exclusively on active faults and geodynamic inputs, which are thus not dependent on past earthquake occurrences, provide a valid method for seismic hazard calculation.

Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindi, D.; Cotton, F.; Kotha, S. R.; Bosse, C.; Stromeyer, D.; Grünthal, G.

2017-09-01

We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989-1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon's map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

Deaggregation of Probabilistic Ground Motions in the Central and Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, S.; Perkins, D.; Frankel, A.

1999-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a technique for estimating the annual rate of exceedance of a specified ground motion at a site due to known and suspected earthquake sources. The relative contributions of the various sources to the total seismic hazard are determined as a function of their occurrence rates and their ground-motion potential. The separation of the exceedance contributions into bins whose base dimensions are magnitude and distance is called deaggregation. We have deaggregated the hazard analyses for the new USGS national probabilistic ground-motion hazard maps (Frankel et al., 1996). For points on a 0.2?? grid in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), we show color maps of the geographical variation of mean and modal magnitudes (M??, M??) and distances (D??, D??) for ground motions having a 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. These maps are displayed for peak horizontal acceleration and for spectral response accelerations of 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec. We tabulate M??, D??, M??, and D?? for 49 CEUS cities for 0.2- and 1.0-sec response. Thus, these maps and tables are PSHA-derived estimates of the potential earthquakes that dominate seismic hazard at short and intermediate periods in the CEUS. The contribution to hazard of the New Madrid and Charleston sources dominates over much of the CEUS; for 0.2-sec response, over 40% of the area; for 1.0-sec response, over 80% of the area. For 0.2-sec response, D?? ranges from 20 to 200 km, for 1.0 sec, 30 to 600 km. For sites influenced by New Madrid or Charleston, D is less than the distance to these sources, and M?? is less than the characteristic magnitude of these sources, because averaging takes into account the effect of smaller magnitude and closer sources. On the other hand, D?? is directly the distance to New Madrid or Charleston and M?? for 0.2- and 1.0-sec response corresponds to the dominating source over much of the CEUS. For some cities in the North Atlantic states, short-period seismic hazard is apt to be controlled by local seismicity, whereas intermediate period (1.0 sec) hazard is commonly controlled by regional seismicity, such as that of the Charlevoix seismic zone.

Italian Case Studies Modelling Complex Earthquake Sources In PSHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gee, Robin; Peruzza, Laura; Pagani, Marco

2017-04-01

This study presents two examples of modelling complex seismic sources in Italy, done in the framework of regional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The first case study is for an area centred around Collalto Stoccaggio, a natural gas storage facility in Northern Italy, located within a system of potentially seismogenic thrust faults in the Venetian Plain. The storage exploits a depleted natural gas reservoir located within an actively growing anticline, which is likely driven by the Montello Fault, the underlying blind thrust. This fault has been well identified by microseismic activity (M<2) detected by a local seismometric network installed in 2012 (http://rete-collalto.crs.inogs.it/). At this time, no correlation can be identified between the gas storage activity and local seismicity, so we proceed with a PSHA that considers only natural seismicity, where the rates of earthquakes are assumed to be time-independent. The source model consists of faults and distributed seismicity to consider earthquakes that cannot be associated to specific structures. All potentially active faults within 50 km of the site are considered, and are modelled as 3D listric surfaces, consistent with the proposed geometry of the Montello Fault. Slip rates are constrained using available geological, geophysical and seismological information. We explore the sensitivity of the hazard results to various parameters affected by epistemic uncertainty, such as ground motions prediction equations with different rupture-to-site distance metrics, fault geometry, and maximum magnitude. The second case is an innovative study, where we perform aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (APSHA) in Central Italy, following the Amatrice M6.1 earthquake of August 24th, 2016 (298 casualties) and the subsequent earthquakes of Oct 26th and 30th (M6.1 and M6.6 respectively, no deaths). The aftershock hazard is modelled using a fault source with complex geometry, based on literature data and field evidence associated with the August mainshock. Earthquake activity rates during the very first weeks after the deadly earthquake were used to calibrated an Omori-Utsu decay curve, and the magnitude distribution of aftershocks is assumed to follow a Gutenberg-Richter distribution. We apply uniform and non-uniform spatial distribution of the seismicity across the fault source, by modulating the rates as a decreasing function of distance from the mainshock. The hazard results are computed for short-exposure periods (1 month, before the occurrences of October earthquakes) and compared to the background hazard given by law (MPS04), and to observations at some reference sites. We also show the results of disaggregation computed for the city of Amatrice. Finally, we attempt to update the results in light of the new "main" events that occurred afterwards in the region. All source modeling and hazard calculations are performed using the OpenQuake engine. We discuss the novelties of these works, and the benefits and limitations of both analyses, particularly in such different contexts of seismic hazard.

Using faults for PSHA in a volcanic context: the Etna case (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Gee, Robin; Pace, Bruno; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

At Mt. Etna volcano (Southern Italy), recurrent volcano-tectonic earthquakes affect the urbanised areas, with an overall population of about 400,000 and with important infrastructures and lifelines. For this reason, seismic hazard analyses have been undertaken in the last decade focusing on the capability of local faults to generate damaging earthquakes especially in the short-term (30-5 yrs); these results have to be intended as complementary to the regulatory seismic hazard maps, and devoted to establish priority in the seismic retrofitting of the exposed municipalities. Starting from past experience, in the framework of the V3 Project funded by the Italian Department of Civil Defense we performed a fully probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by using an original definition of seismic sources and ground-motion prediction equations specifically derived for this volcanic area; calculations are referred to a new brand topographic surface (Mt. Etna reaches more than 3,000 m in elevation, in less than 20 km from the coast), and to both Poissonian and time-dependent occurrence models. We present at first the process of defining seismic sources that includes individual faults, seismic zones and gridded seismicity; they are obtained by integrating geological field data with long-term (the historical macroseismic catalogue) and short-term earthquake data (the instrumental catalogue). The analysis of the Frequency Magnitude Distribution identifies areas in the volcanic complex, with a- and b-values of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship representative of different dynamic processes. Then, we discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults estimated by using a purely geologic approach. This analysis has been carried out through the software code FISH, a Matlab® tool developed to turn fault data representative of the seismogenic process into hazard models. The utilization of a magnitude-size scaling relationship specific for volcanic areas is a key element: the FiSH code may thus calculate the most probable values of characteristic expected magnitude (Mchar) with the associated standard deviation σ, the corresponding mean recurrence times (Tmean) and the aperiodicity factor  for each fault. Finally, we show some results obtained by the OpenQuake-engine by considering a conceptual logic tree model organised in several branches (zone and zoneless, historical and geological rates, Poisson and time-dependent assumptions). Maps are referred to various exposure periods (10% exceeding probability in 30-5 years) and different spectral accelerations. The volcanic region of Mt. Etna represents a perfect lab for fault-based PSHA; the large dataset of input parameters used in the calculations allows testing different methodological approaches and validating some conceptual procedures.

Analogue modelling of the rupture process of vulnerable stalagmites in an earthquake simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Kovács, Károly; Hegymegi, Erika; Esterhazy, Sofi; Mónus, Péter

2017-04-01

Earthquakes hit urban centers in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard is therefore very important. In principle, the best way to test Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) is to compare them with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. Long-term information can in principle be gained from intact and vulnerable stalagmites in natural caves. These formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. To determine this critical value for the horizontal ground acceleration more precisely we need to understand the failure process of these intact and vulnerable stalagmites. More detailed information of the vulnerable stalagmites' rupture is required, and we have to know how much it depends on the shape and the substance of the investigated stalagmite. Predicting stalagmite failure limits using numerical modelling is faced with a number of approximations, e.g. from generating a manageable digital model. Thus it seemed reasonable to investigate the problem by analogue modelling as well. The advantage of analogue modelling among other things is that nearly real circumstances can be produced by simple and quick laboratory methods. The model sample bodies were made from different types of concrete and were cut out from real broken stalagmites originated from the investigated caves. These bodies were reduced-scaled with similar shape as the original, investigated stalagmites. During the measurements we could change both the shape and the material and the time series of acting horizontal acceleration. Comparing the results from analogue to numerical modelling could improve the accuracy of long-term seismic hazard assessment.

Building Time-Dependent Earthquake Recurrence Models for Probabilistic Loss Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.

2013-12-01

We present a Risk Management perspective on earthquake recurrence on mature faults, and the ways that it can be modeled. The specificities of Risk Management relative to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA), include the non-linearity of the exceedance probability curve for losses relative to the frequency of event occurrence, the fact that losses at all return periods are needed (and not at discrete values of the return period), and the set-up of financial models which sometimes require the modeling of realizations of the order in which events may occur (I.e., simulated event dates are important, whereas only average rates of occurrence are routinely used in PSHA). We use New Zealand as a case study and review the physical characteristics of several faulting environments, contrasting them against properties of three probability density functions (PDFs) widely used to characterize the inter-event time distributions in time-dependent recurrence models. We review the data available to help constrain both the priors and the recurrence process. And we propose that with the current level of knowledge, the best way to quantify the recurrence of large events on mature faults is to use a Bayesian combination of models, i.e., the decomposition of the inter-event time distribution into a linear combination of individual PDFs with their weight given by the posterior distribution. Finally we propose to the community : 1. A general debate on how best to incorporate our knowledge (e.g., from geology, geomorphology) on plausible models and model parameters, but also preserve the information on what we do not know; and 2. The creation and maintenance of a global database of priors, data, and model evidence, classified by tectonic region, special fluid characteristic (pH, compressibility, pressure), fault geometry, and other relevant properties so that we can monitor whether some trends emerge in terms of which model dominates in which conditions.

Synthesis and characterization of TEP-EDTA-regulated bioactive hydroxyapatite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haders, Daniel Joseph, II

Hydroxyapatite (HA), Ca10(PO4)6(OH) 2, the stoichiometric equivalent of the ceramic phase of bone, is the preferred material for hard tissue replacement due to its bioactivity. However, bioinert metals are utilized in load-bearing orthopedic applications due to the poor mechanical properties of HA. Consequently, attention has been given to HA coatings for metallic orthopedic implants to take advantage of the bioactivity of HA and the mechanical properties of metals. Commercially, the plasma spray process (PS-HA) is the method most often used to deposit HA films on metallic implants. Since its introduction in the 1980's, however, concerns have been raised about the consequences of PS-HA's low crystallinity, lack of phase purity, lack of film-substrate chemical adhesion, passivation properties, and difficulty in coating complex geometries. Thus, there is a need to develop inexpensive reproducible next-generation HA film deposition techniques, which deposit high crystallinity, phase pure, adhesive, passivating, conformal HA films on clinical metallic substrates. The aim of this dissertation was to intelligently synthesize and characterize the material and biological properties of HA films on metallic substrates synthesized by hydrothermal crystallization, using thermodynamic phase diagrams as the starting point. In three overlapping interdisciplinary studies the potential of using ethylenediamine-tetraacetic acid/triethyl phosphate (EDTA/TEP) doubly regulated hydrothermal crystallization to deposit HA films, the TEP-regulated, time-and-temperature-dependent process by which films were deposited, and the bioactivity of crystallographically engineered films were investigated. Films were crystallized in a 0.232 molal Ca(NO3)2-0.232 molal EDTA-0.187 molal TEP-1.852 molal KOH-H2O chemical system at 200°C. Thermodynamic phase diagrams demonstrated that the chosen conditions were expected to produce Ca-P phase pure HA, which was experimentally confirmed. EDTA regulation of Ca2+ concentration enabled the HA crystallization process to be growth dominated, producing films composed of high crystallinity, hexagonal grains on multiple metallic substrates. TEP regulation of HA crystallization enabled the deposition of an adhesive CaTiO3 intermediate layer, and then HA in a continuous, phase sequenced process on Ti6Al4V substrates, the first such process reported in the hydrothermal HA literature. The HA film was found to be deposited by a passivating competitive growth mechanism that enabled the [0001] crystallographic orientation of hexagonal single crystals to be engineered with synthesis time. Bioactivity analysis demonstrated that films were bioactive and bone bonding. Together, these results suggest that these HA films are candidates for use on metallic orthopedic implants, namely Ti6Al4V.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Chiapas State (SE Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Lomelí, Anabel Georgina; García-Mayordomo, Julián

2015-04-01

The Chiapas State, in southeastern Mexico, is a very active seismic region due to the interaction of three tectonic plates: Northamerica, Cocos and Caribe. We present a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) specifically performed to evaluate seismic hazard in the Chiapas state. The PSHA was based on a composited seismic catalogue homogenized to Mw and was used a logic tree procedure for the consideration of different seismogenic source models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The results were obtained in terms of peak ground acceleration as well as spectral accelerations. The earthquake catalogue was compiled from the International Seismological Center and the Servicio Sismológico Nacional de México sources. Two different seismogenic source zones (SSZ) models were devised based on a revision of the tectonics of the region and the available geomorphological and geological maps. The SSZ were finally defined by the analysis of geophysical data, resulting two main different SSZ models. The Gutenberg-Richter parameters for each SSZ were calculated from the declustered and homogenized catalogue, while the maximum expected earthquake was assessed from both the catalogue and geological criteria. Several worldwide and regional GMPEs for subduction and crustal zones were revised. For each SSZ model we considered four possible combinations of GMPEs. Finally, hazard was calculated in terms of PGA and SA for 500-, 1000-, and 2500-years return periods for each branch of the logic tree using the CRISIS2007 software. The final hazard maps represent the mean values obtained from the two seismogenic and four attenuation models considered in the logic tree. For the three return periods analyzed, the maps locate the most hazardous areas in the Chiapas Central Pacific Zone, the Pacific Coastal Plain and in the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zone; intermediate hazard values in the Chiapas Batholith Zone and in the Strike-Slip Faults Province. The hazard decreases towards the northeast across the Reverse Faults Province and up to Yucatan Platform, where the lowest values are reached. We also produced uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the three main cities of Chiapas. Tapachula city presents the highest spectral accelerations, while Tuxtla Gutierrez and San Cristobal de las Casas cities show similar values. We conclude that seismic hazard in Chiapas is chiefly controlled by the subduction of the Cocos beneath Northamerica and Caribe tectonic plates, that makes the coastal areas the most hazardous. Additionally, the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zones are also important, increasing the hazard particularly in southeastern Chiapas.

Using Multi-scale Dynamic Rupture Models to Improve Ground Motion Estimates: ALCF-2 Early Science Program Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ely, Geoffrey P.

2013-10-31

This project uses dynamic rupture simulations to investigate high-frequency seismic energy generation. The relevant phenomena (frictional breakdown, shear heating, effective normal-stress fluctuations, material damage, etc.) controlling rupture are strongly interacting and span many orders of magnitude in spatial scale, requiring highresolution simulations that couple disparate physical processes (e.g., elastodynamics, thermal weakening, pore-fluid transport, and heat conduction). Compounding the computational challenge, we know that natural faults are not planar, but instead have roughness that can be approximated by power laws potentially leading to large, multiscale fluctuations in normal stress. The capacity to perform 3D rupture simulations that couple these processes willmore » provide guidance for constructing appropriate source models for high-frequency ground motion simulations. The improved rupture models from our multi-scale dynamic rupture simulations will be used to conduct physicsbased (3D waveform modeling-based) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for California. These calculation will provide numerous important seismic hazard results, including a state-wide extended earthquake rupture forecast with rupture variations for all significant events, a synthetic seismogram catalog for thousands of scenario events and more than 5000 physics-based seismic hazard curves for California.« less

Generation of a mixture model ground-motion prediction equation for Northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haendel, A.; Kuehn, N. M.; Scherbaum, F.

2012-12-01

In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) empirically derived ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are usually applied to estimate the ground motion at a site of interest as a function of source, path and site related predictor variables. Because GMPEs are derived from limited datasets they are not expected to give entirely accurate estimates or to reflect the whole range of possible future ground motion, thus giving rise to epistemic uncertainty in the hazard estimates. This is especially true for regions without an indigenous GMPE where foreign models have to be applied. The choice of appropriate GMPEs can then dominate the overall uncertainty in hazard assessments. In order to quantify this uncertainty, the set of ground motion models used in a modern PSHA has to capture (in SSHAC language) the center, body, and range of the possible ground motion at the site of interest. This was traditionally done within a logic tree framework in which existing (or only slightly modified) GMPEs occupy the branches of the tree and the branch weights describe the degree-of-belief of the analyst in their applicability. This approach invites the problem to combine GMPEs of very different quality and hence to potentially overestimate epistemic uncertainty. Some recent hazard analysis have therefore resorted to using a small number of high quality GMPEs as backbone models from which the full distribution of GMPEs for the logic tree (to capture the full range of possible ground motion uncertainty) where subsequently generated by scaling (in a general sense). In the present study, a new approach is proposed to determine an optimized backbone model as weighted components of a mixture model. In doing so, each GMPE is assumed to reflect the generation mechanism (e. g. in terms of stress drop, propagation properties, etc.) for at least a fraction of possible ground motions in the area of interest. The combination of different models into a mixture model (which is learned from observed ground motion data in the region of interest) is then transferring information from other regions to the region where the observations have been produced in a data driven way. The backbone model is learned by comparing the model predictions to observations of the target region. For each observation and each model, the likelihood of an observation given a certain GMPE is calculated. Mixture weights can then be assigned using the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm or Bayesian inference. The new method is used to generate a backbone reference model for Northern Chile, an area for which no dedicated GMPE exists. Strong motion recordings from the target area are used to learn the backbone model from a set of 10 GMPEs developed for different subduction zones of the world. The formation of mixture models is done individually for interface and intraslab type events. The ability of the resulting backbone models to describe ground motions in Northern Chile is then compared to the predictive performance of their constituent models.

Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Proposed Guidelines for Implementation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, T. H.

2010-12-01

The goal of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is to provide the public with authoritative information about how seismic hazards are changing with time. During periods of high seismic activity, short-term earthquake forecasts based on empirical statistical models can attain nominal probability gains in excess of 100 relative to the long-term forecasts used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Prospective experiments are underway by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) to evaluate the reliability and skill of these seismicity-based forecasts in a variety of tectonic environments. How such information should be used for civil protection is by no means clear, because even with hundredfold increases, the probabilities of large earthquakes typically remain small, rarely exceeding a few percent over forecasting intervals of days or weeks. Civil protection agencies have been understandably cautious in implementing formal procedures for OEF in this sort of “low-probability environment.” Nevertheless, the need to move more quickly towards OEF has been underscored by recent experiences, such as the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake sequence and other seismic crises in which an anxious public has been confused by informal, inconsistent earthquake forecasts. Whether scientists like it or not, rising public expectations for real-time information, accelerated by the use of social media, will require civil protection agencies to develop sources of authoritative information about the short-term earthquake probabilities. In this presentation, I will discuss guidelines for the implementation of OEF informed by my experience on the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, convened by CalEMA, and the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, convened by the Italian government following the L’Aquila disaster. (a) Public sources of information on short-term probabilities should be authoritative, scientific, open, and timely, and they need to convey the epistemic uncertainties in the operational forecasts. (b) Earthquake probabilities should be based on operationally qualified, regularly updated forecasting systems. All operational procedures should be rigorously reviewed by experts in the creation, delivery, and utility of earthquake forecasts. (c) The quality of all operational models should be evaluated for reliability and skill by retrospective testing, and the models should be under continuous prospective testing in a CSEP-type environment against established long-term forecasts and a wide variety of alternative, time-dependent models. (d) Short-term models used in operational forecasting should be consistent with the long-term forecasts used in PSHA. (e) Alert procedures should be standardized to facilitate decisions at different levels of government and among the public, based in part on objective analysis of costs and benefits. (f) In establishing alert procedures, consideration should also be made of the less tangible aspects of value-of-information, such as gains in psychological preparedness and resilience. Authoritative statements of increased risk, even when the absolute probability is low, can provide a psychological benefit to the public by filling information vacuums that can lead to informal predictions and misinformation.

Time Separation Between Events in a Sequence: a Regional Property?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muirwood, R.; Fitzenz, D. D.

2013-12-01

Earthquake sequences are loosely defined as events occurring too closely in time and space to appear unrelated. Depending on the declustering method, several, all, or no event(s) after the first large event might be recognized as independent mainshocks. It can therefore be argued that a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, traditionally dealing with mainshocks only) might already include the ground shaking effects of such sequences. Alternatively all but the largest event could be classified as an ';aftershock' and removed from the earthquake catalog. While in PSHA the question is only whether to keep or remove the events from the catalog, for Risk Management purposes, the community response to the earthquakes, as well as insurance risk transfer mechanisms, can be profoundly affected by the actual timing of events in such a sequence. In particular the repetition of damaging earthquakes over a period of weeks to months can lead to businesses closing and families evacuating from the region (as happened in Christchurch, New Zealand in 2011). Buildings that are damaged in the first earthquake may go on to be damaged again, even while they are being repaired. Insurance also functions around a set of critical timeframes - including the definition of a single 'event loss' for reinsurance recoveries within the 192 hour ';hours clause', the 6-18 month pace at which insurance claims are settled, and the annual renewal of insurance and reinsurance contracts. We show how temporal aspects of earthquake sequences need to be taken into account within models for Risk Management, and what time separation between events are most sensitive, both in terms of the modeled disruptions to lifelines and business activity as well as in the losses to different parties (such as insureds, insurers and reinsurers). We also explore the time separation between all events and between loss causing events for a collection of sequences from across the world and we point to the need to understand the rate controlling processes that determine such sequences per tectonic region and fluid/heat flow provinces.

Effect of Fault Parameter Uncertainties on PSHA explored by Monte Carlo Simulations: A case study for southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinci, A.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In this study, we discuss the seismic hazard variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 475 years return period in the Southern Apennines of Italy. The uncertainty and parametric sensitivity are presented to quantify the impact of the several fault parameters on ground motion predictions for 10% exceedance in 50-year hazard. A time-independent PSHA model is constructed based on the long-term recurrence behavior of seismogenic faults adopting the characteristic earthquake model for those sources capable of rupturing the entire fault segment with a single maximum magnitude. The fault-based source model uses the dimensions and slip rates of mapped fault to develop magnitude-frequency estimates for characteristic earthquakes. Variability of the selected fault parameter is given with a truncated normal random variable distribution presented by standard deviation about a mean value. A Monte Carlo approach, based on the random balanced sampling by logic tree, is used in order to capture the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations. For generating both uncertainty and sensitivity maps, we perform 200 simulations for each of the fault parameters. The results are synthesized both in frequency-magnitude distribution of modeled faults as well as the different maps: the overall uncertainty maps provide a confidence interval for the PGA values and the parameter uncertainty maps determine the sensitivity of hazard assessment to variability of every logic tree branch. These branches of logic tree, analyzed through the Monte Carlo approach, are maximum magnitudes, fault length, fault width, fault dip and slip rates. The overall variability of these parameters is determined by varying them simultaneously in the hazard calculations while the sensitivity of each parameter to overall variability is determined varying each of the fault parameters while fixing others. However, in this study we do not investigate the sensitivity of mean hazard results to the consideration of different GMPEs. Distribution of possible seismic hazard results is illustrated by 95% confidence factor map, which indicates the dispersion about mean value, and coefficient of variation map, which shows percent variability. The results of our study clearly illustrate the influence of active fault parameters to probabilistic seismic hazard maps.

CRISIS2012: An Updated Tool to Compute Seismic Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordaz, M.; Martinelli, F.; Meletti, C.; D'Amico, V.

2013-05-01

CRISIS is a computer tool for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), whose development started in the late 1980's at the Instituto de Ingeniería, UNAM, Mexico. It started circulating outside the Mexican borders at the beginning of the 1990's, when it was first distributed as part of SEISAN tools. Throughout the years, CRISIS has been used for seismic hazard studies in several countries in Latin America (Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Argentina and Chile), and in many other countries of the World. CRISIS has always circulated free of charge for non-commercial applications. It is worth noting that CRISIS has been mainly written by people that are, at the same time, PSHA practitioners. Therefore, the development loop has been relatively short, and most of the modifications and improvements have been made to satisfy the needs of the developers themselves. CRISIS has evolved from a rather simple FORTRAN code to a relatively complex program with a friendly graphical interface, able to handle a variety of modeling possibilities for source geometries, seismicity descriptions and ground motion prediction models (GMPM). We will describe some of the improvements made for the newest version of the code: CRISIS 2012.These improvements, some of which were made in the frame of the Italian research project INGV-DPC S2 (http://nuovoprogettoesse2.stru.polimi.it/), funded by the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC; National Civil Protection Department), include: A wider variety of source geometries A wider variety of seismicity models, including the ability to handle non-Poissonian occurrence models and Poissonian smoothed-seismicity descriptions. Enhanced capabilities for using different kinds of GMPM: attenuation tables, built-in models and generalized attenuation models. In the case of built-in models, there is, by default, a set ready to use in CRISIS, but additional custom GMPMs may be freely developed and integrated without having to recompile the core code. Therefore, the users can build new external classes implementing custom GMPM modules by adhering to the programming-interface specification, which is delivered as part of the executable program. On the other hand, generalized attenuation models are non-parametric probabilistic descriptions of the ground motions produced by individual earthquakes with known magnitude and location. In the context of CRISIS, a generalized attenuation model is a collection of probabilistic footprints, one for each of the events considered in the analysis. Each footprint gives the geographical distribution of the intensities produced by this event. CRISIS permits now the inclusion of local site effects in hazard computations. Site effects are given to CRISIS in terms of amplification factors that depend on site location, period, and ground-motion level (in order to account for soil non-linearity). Enhanced capabilities to make logic-tree computations and to produce seismic disaggregation charts. A new presentation layer, developed for accessing the same functionalities of the desktop version via web (CRISISWeb). Examples will be presented and the program will be made available to all interested persons.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Mayordomo, J.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.

2007-10-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA( T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA( T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.

Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway, North‒East of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haerifard, S.; Jarahi, H.; Pourkermani, M.; Almasian, M.

2018-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.

International Collaboration for Strengthening Capacity to Assess Earthquake Hazard in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cummins, P. R.; Hidayati, S.; Suhardjono, S.; Meilano, I.; Natawidjaja, D.

2012-12-01

Indonesia has experienced a dramatic increase in earthquake risk due to rapid population growth in the 20th century, much of it occurring in areas near the subduction zone plate boundaries that are prone to earthquake occurrence. While recent seismic hazard assessments have resulted in better building codes that can inform safer building practices, many of the fundamental parameters controlling earthquake occurrence and ground shaking - e.g., fault slip rates, earthquake scaling relations, ground motion prediction equations, and site response - could still be better constrained. In recognition of the need to improve the level of information on which seismic hazard assessments are based, the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) and Indonesia's National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB), through the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, have initiated a 4-year project designed to strengthen the Government of Indonesia's capacity to reliably assess earthquake hazard. This project is a collaboration of Australian institutions including Geoscience Australia and the Australian National University, with Indonesian government agencies and universities including the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, the Geological Agency, the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, and Bandung Institute of Technology. Effective earthquake hazard assessment requires input from many different types of research, ranging from geological studies of active faults, seismological studies of crustal structure, earthquake sources and ground motion, PSHA methodology, and geodetic studies of crustal strain rates. The project is a large and diverse one that spans all these components, and these will be briefly reviewed in this presentation

Earthquake Hazard Assessment: an Independent Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir

2016-04-01

Seismic hazard assessment (SHA), from term-less (probabilistic PSHA or deterministic DSHA) to time-dependent (t-DASH) including short-term earthquake forecast/prediction (StEF), is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Regretfully, in many cases of SHA, t-DASH, and StEF, the claims of a high potential and efficiency of the methodology are based on a flawed application of statistics and hardly suitable for communication to decision makers. The necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space, is evident, and such a testing must be done in advance claiming hazardous areas and/or times. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing may supply us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified with a few cases of misleading "seismic hazard maps", "precursors", and "forecast/prediction methods".

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonzalez, F.I.; Geist, E.L.; Jaffe, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Mofjeld, H.; Synolakis, C.E.; Titov, V.V.; Areas, D.; Bellomo, D.; Carlton, D.; Horning, T.; Johnson, J.; Newman, J.; Parsons, T.; Peters, R.; Peterson, C.; Priest, G.; Venturato, A.; Weber, J.; Wong, F.; Yalciner, A.

2009-01-01

The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Constraints on Long-Term Seismic Hazard From Vulnerable Stalagmites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Mónus, Péter; Kovács, Károly; Konecny, Pavel; Lednicka, Marketa; Bednárik, Martin; Brimich, Ladislav

2015-04-01

Earthquakes hit urban centers in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. This raises the important issue for society, how to react to the natural hazard: potential damages are huge, but infrastructure costs for addressing these hazards are huge as well. Furthermore, seismic hazard is only one of the many hazards facing society. Societal means need to be distributed in a reasonable manner - to assure that all of these hazards (natural as well as societal) are addressed appropriately. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is very important therefore. In principle, the best way to test PSHA models is to compare with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce the PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occuring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle - if that exists. Such information would be very valuable, even if it concerned only a single site, namely that of a particularly sensitive infrastructure. Such a request may seem hopeless - but it is not. Long-term information can in principle be gained from intact stalagmites in natural caves. These have survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that period. We are focusing here on case studies in Austria, which has moderate seismicity, but a well-documented history of major earthquake-induced damage, e.g., Villach in 1348 and 1690, Vienna in 1590, Leoben in 1794, and Innsbruck in 1551, 1572, and 1589. Seismic intensities have reached levels up to 10. It is clearly important to know which "worst-case" damages to expect. We have identified sets of particularly sensitive stalagmites in the general vicinity of two major cities in Austria (Vienna and Graz). Non-destructive in-situ measurements have been performed for these and other caves in Austria and Slovakia, in order to determine the horizontal ground accelerations that would result in failure of these stalagmites. These specially-shaped intact stalagmites allow estimating the upper limit on horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by paleoearthquakes. Such information can help make the right strategic decisions.

An alternative approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the Aegean region using Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherill, Graeme; Burton, Paul W.

2010-09-01

The Aegean is the most seismically active and tectonically complex region in Europe. Damaging earthquakes have occurred here throughout recorded history, often resulting in considerable loss of life. The Monte Carlo method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is used to determine the level of ground motion likely to be exceeded in a given time period. Multiple random simulations of seismicity are generated to calculate, directly, the ground motion for a given site. Within the seismic hazard analysis we explore the impact of different seismic source models, incorporating both uniform zones and distributed seismicity. A new, simplified, seismic source model, derived from seismotectonic interpretation, is presented for the Aegean region. This is combined into the epistemic uncertainty analysis alongside existing source models for the region, and models derived by a K-means cluster analysis approach. Seismic source models derived using the K-means approach offer a degree of objectivity and reproducibility into the otherwise subjective approach of delineating seismic sources using expert judgment. Similar review and analysis is undertaken for the selection of peak ground acceleration (PGA) attenuation models, incorporating into the epistemic analysis Greek-specific models, European models and a Next Generation Attenuation model. Hazard maps for PGA on a "rock" site with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years are produced and different source and attenuation models are compared. These indicate that Greek-specific attenuation models, with their smaller aleatory variability terms, produce lower PGA hazard, whilst recent European models and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) model produce similar results. The Monte Carlo method is extended further to assimilate epistemic uncertainty into the hazard calculation, thus integrating across several appropriate source and PGA attenuation models. Site condition and fault-type are also integrated into the hazard mapping calculations. These hazard maps are in general agreement with previous maps for the Aegean, recognising the highest hazard in the Ionian Islands, Gulf of Corinth and Hellenic Arc. Peak Ground Accelerations for some sites in these regions reach as high as 500-600 cm s -2 using European/NGA attenuation models, and 400-500 cm s -2 using Greek attenuation models.

Seismic hazard assessment of Syria using seismicity, DEM, slope, active tectonic and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Raed; Adris, Ahmad; Singh, Ramesh

2016-07-01

In the present work, we discuss the use of an integrated remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques for evaluation of seismic hazard areas in Syria. The present study is the first time effort to create seismic hazard map with the help of GIS. In the proposed approach, we have used Aster satellite data, digital elevation data (30 m resolution), earthquake data, and active tectonic maps. Many important factors for evaluation of seismic hazard were identified and corresponding thematic data layers (past earthquake epicenters, active faults, digital elevation model, and slope) were generated. A numerical rating scheme has been developed for spatial data analysis using GIS to identify ranking of parameters to be included in the evaluation of seismic hazard. The resulting earthquake potential map delineates the area into different relative susceptibility classes: high, moderate, low and very low. The potential earthquake map was validated by correlating the obtained different classes with the local probability that produced using conventional analysis of observed earthquakes. Using earthquake data of Syria and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) data is introduced to the model to develop final seismic hazard map based on Gutenberg-Richter (a and b values) parameters and using the concepts of local probability and recurrence time. The application of the proposed technique in Syrian region indicates that this method provides good estimate of seismic hazard map compared to those developed from traditional techniques (Deterministic (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA). For the first time we have used numerous parameters using remote sensing and GIS in preparation of seismic hazard map which is found to be very realistic.

Implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines for Level 3 and 4 PSHAs - Experience Gained from Actual Applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Thomas C.; Abrahamson, Norm A.; Boore, David M.; Coppersmith, Kevin J.; Knepprath, Nichole E.

2009-01-01

In April 1997, after four years of deliberations, the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee released its report 'Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts' through the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as NUREG/CR-6372, hereafter SSHAC (1997). Known informally ever since as the 'SSHAC Guidelines', SSHAC (1997) addresses why and how multiple expert opinions - and the intrinsic uncertainties that attend them - should be used in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses (PSHA) for critical facilities such as commercial nuclear power plants. Ten years later, in September 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) entered into a 13-month agreement with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) titled 'Practical Procedures for Implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines and for Updating PSHAs'. The NRC was interested in understanding and documenting lessons learned from recent PSHAs conducted at the higher SSHAC Levels (3 and 4) and in gaining input from the seismic community for updating PSHAs as new information became available. This study increased in importance in anticipation of new applications for nuclear power facilities at both existing and new sites. The intent of this project was not to replace the SSHAC Guidelines but to supplement them with the experience gained from putting the SSHAC Guidelines to work in practical applications. During the course of this project, we also learned that updating PSHAs for existing nuclear power facilities involves very different issues from the implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines for new facilities. As such, we report our findings and recommendations from this study in two separate documents, this being the first. The SSHAC Guidelines were written without regard to whether the PSHAs to which they would be applied were site-specific or regional in scope. Most of the experience gained to date from high-level SSHAC studies has been for site-specific cases, although three ongoing (as of this writing) studies are regional in scope. Updating existing PSHAs will depend more critically on the differences between site-specific and regional studies, and we will also address these differences in more detail in the companion report. Most of what we report here and in the second report on updating PSHAs emanates from three workshops held by the USGS at their Menlo Park facility: 'Lessons Learned from SSHAC Level 3 and 4 PSHAs' on January 30-31, 2008; 'Updates to Existing PSHAs' on May 6-7, 2008; and 'Draft Recommendations, SSHAC Implementation Guidance' on June 4-5, 2009. These workshops were attended by approximately 40 scientists and engineers familiar with hazard studies for nuclear facilities. This company included four of the authors of SSHAC (1997) and four other experts whose contributions to this document are mentioned in the Acknowledgments section; numerous scientists and engineers who in one role or another have participated in one or more high-level SSHAC PSHAs summarized later in this report; and representatives of the nuclear industry, the consulting world, the regulatory community, and academia with a keen interest and expertise in hazard analysis. This report is a community-based set of recommendations to NRC for improved practical procedures for implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines. In an early publication specifically addressing the SSHAC Guidelines, Hanks (1997) noted that the SSHAC Guidelines were likely to evolve for some time to come, and this remains true today. While the broad philosophical and theoretical dimensions of the SSHAC Guidelines will not change, much has been learned during the past decade from various applications of the SSHAC Guidelines to real PSHAs in terms of how they are implemented. We anticipate that, in their practical applications, the SSHAC Guidelines will continue to evolve as more experience is gained from future SSHAC applications. Indeed, to the extent that every PSHA has its

A Site Characterization Protocol for Evaluating the Potential for Triggered or Induced Seismicity Resulting from Wastewater Injection and Hydraulic Fracturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walters, R. J.; Zoback, M. D.; Gupta, A.; Baker, J.; Beroza, G. C.

2014-12-01

Regulatory and governmental agencies, individual companies and industry groups and others have recently proposed, or are developing, guidelines aimed at reducing the risk associated with earthquakes triggered by waste water injection or hydraulic fracturing. While there are a number of elements common to the guidelines proposed, not surprisingly, there are also some significant differences among them and, in a number of cases, important considerations that are not addressed. The goal of this work is to develop a comprehensive protocol for site characterization based on a rigorous scientific understanding of the responsible processes. Topics addressed will include the geologic setting (emphasizing faults that might be affected), historical seismicity, hydraulic characterization of injection and adjacent intervals, geomechanical characterization to identify potentially active faults, plans for seismic monitoring and reporting, plans for monitoring and reporting injection (pressure, volumes, and rates), other factors contributing to risk (potentially affected population centers, structures, and facilities), and implementing a modified Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The guidelines will be risk based and adaptable, rather than prescriptive, for a proposed activity and region of interest. They will be goal oriented and will rely, to the degree possible, on established best practice procedures, referring to existing procedures and recommendations. By developing a risk-based site characterization protocol, we hope to contribute to the development of rational and effective measures for reducing the risk posed by activities that potentially trigger earthquakes.

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Middle East Region: Based on the Example to Georgia (Preliminary results)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N. S.; Akkar, S.; Askan, A.; Varazanashvili, O.; Adamia, S.; Chkhitunidze, M.

2012-12-01

The country of Georgia is located between Russia and Turkey. The main morphological units of Georgia are the mountain ranges of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus separated by the Black Sea-Rioni and Kura (Mtkvari)-South Caspian intermountain troughs. Recent geodynamics of Georgia and adjacent territories of the Black Sea-Caspian Sea region, as a whole, are determined by its position between the still-converging Eurasian and Africa-Arabian plates. That caused moderate seismicity in the region. However, the risk resulting from these earthquakes is considerably high, as recent events during the last two decades have shown. Seismic hazard and risk assessment is a major research topic in various recent international and national projects. Despite the current efforts, estimation of regional seismic hazard assessment remains as a major problem. Georgia is one of the partners of ongoing regional project EMME (Earthquake Model for Middle East region). The main objective of EMME is calculation of Earthquake hazard uniformly with heights standards. One approach used in the project is the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment PSHA. In this study, we present the preliminary results of PSHA for Georgia in this project attempting to improve gaps especially in such steps as: determination of seismic sources; selection or derivation of ground motion prediction equations models; estimation of maximum magnitude Mmax. Seismic sources (SS) were obtained on the bases of structural geology, parameters of seismicity and seismotectonics. Finely new SS have been developed for Georgia and adjacent region. Each zone was defined with the following parameters: the magnitude-frequency parameters, maximum magnitude, and depth distribution as well as modern dynamical characteristics widely used for complex processes. As the ground motion dataset is absolutely insufficient by itself to derive a ground motion prediction model for Georgia, two approaches were taken in defining ground motions. First the modern procedure for selecting and ranking candidate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) were done (Scherbaum et al. 2004, 2009; Cotton et al. 2006, Kale and Akkar, 2012) under a given ground motion dataset. Second the hybrid-empirical method proposed by Campbell (2003) was used. In the host-to-target simulations, Turkey and Iran was used as the host regions and Georgia as the target region. GMPEs for the Racha and Javakhety regions in Georgia are derived by scaling the pre-determined GMPEs based on the computed scaling coefficients. Finally PSH maps were calculated showing peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations at 0, 0.2, 1, 2, 4 sec for Georgia.

Constraints on Long-Term Seismic Hazard From Vulnerable Stalagmites for the surroundings of Katerloch cave, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Mónus, Péter; Kovács, Károly; Kalmár, János

2016-04-01

Earthquakes hit urban centers in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. This raises the important issue for society, how to react to the natural hazard: potential damages are huge, and infrastructure costs for addressing these hazards are huge as well. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is very important therefore. In principle, the best way to test Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) is to compare with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce the PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. Such information would be very valuable, even if it concerned only a single site. Long-term information can in principle be gained from intact stalagmites in natural karstic caves. These have survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that period. We are focusing here on a case study from the Katerloch cave close to the city of Graz, Austria. A specially-shaped (candle stick style: high, slim, and more or less cylindrical form) intact and vulnerable stalagmites (IVSTM) in the Katerloch cave has been examined in 2013 and 2014. This IVSTM is suitable for estimating the upper limit for horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by pre-historic earthquakes. For this cave, we have extensive information about ages (e.g., Boch et al., 2006, 2010). The approach, used in our study, yields significant new constraints on seismic hazard, as the intactness of the stalagmites suggests that tectonic structures close to Katerloch cave, i.p. the Mur-Mürz fault did not generate very strong paleoearthquakes in the last few thousand years. This study is particular important for understanding the seismic hazard associated with the town of Graz. The acceleration level determined by our study for the territory of Katerloch cave is much lower than the PGA value interval (from 0.075 g to 0.1 g, in case of arithmetic mean, 85% fragile, rock type) determined by probabilistic seismic hazard calculation (SHARE Model, e.g., Giardini et al., 2013,) for a 475 years recurrence time (in 50 years with 10% probability of exceedance).

Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Western Saudi Arabia from a Reference Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiuchi, R.; Mooney, W. D.; Mori, J. J.; Zahran, H. M.; Al-Raddadi, W.; Youssef, S.

2017-12-01

Western Saudi Arabia is surrounded by several active seismic zones such as the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba where a destructive magnitude 7.3 event occurred in 1995. Over the last decade, the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) has deployed a dense seismic network that has made it possible to monitor seismic activity more accurately. For example, the network has detected multiple seismic swarms beneath the volcanic fields in western Saudi Arabia. The most recent damaging event was a M5.7 earthquake that occurred in 2009 at Harrat Lunayyir. In terms of seismic hazard assessment, Zahran et al. (2015; 2016) presented a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for western Saudi Arabia that was developed using published Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) from areas outside of Saudi Arabia. In this study, we consider 41 earthquakes of M 3.0 - 5.4, recorded on 124 stations of the SGS network, to create a set of 442 peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) records with a range of epicentral distances from 3 km to 400 km. We use the GMPE model BSSA14 (Boore et al., 2014) as a reference model to estimate our own best-fitting coefficients from a regression analysis using the events occurred in western Saudi Arabia. For epicentral distances less than 100 km, our best fitting model has different source scaling in comparison with the GMPE of BSSA14 adjusted for the California region. In addition, our model indicates that the peak amplitudes have less attenuation in western Saudi Arabia than in California.

Intrinsic and scattering attenuation of high-frequency S-waves in the central part of the External Dinarides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majstorović, Josipa; Belinić, Tena; Namjesnik, Dalija; Dasović, Iva; Herak, Davorka; Herak, Marijan

2017-09-01

The central part of the External Dinarides (CED) is a geologically and tectonically complex region formed in the collision between the Adriatic microplate and the European plate. In this study, the contributions of intrinsic and scattering attenuation ( Q i - 1 and Q sc - 1 , respectively) to the total S-wave attenuation were calculated for the first time. The multiple lapse-time window analysis (MLTWA method), based on the assumptions of multiple isotropic scattering in a homogeneous medium with uniformly distributed scatterers, was applied to seismograms of 450 earthquakes recorded at six seismic stations. Selected events have hypocentral distances between 40 and 90 km with local magnitudes between 1.5 and 4.7. The analysis was performed over 11 frequency bands with central frequencies between 1.5 and 16 Hz. Results show that the seismic albedo of the studied area is less than 0.5 and Q i - 1 > Q sc - 1 at all central frequencies and for all stations. These imply that the intrinsic attenuation dominates over scattering attenuation in the whole study area. Calculated total S-wave and expected coda wave attenuation for CED are in a very good agreement with the ones measured in previous studies using the coda normalization and the coda-Q methods. All estimated attenuation factors decrease with increasing frequency. The intrinsic attenuation for CED is among the highest observed elsewhere, which could be due to the highly fractured and fluid-filled carbonates in the upper crust. The scattering and the total S-wave attenuation for CED are close to the average values obtained in other studies performed worldwide. In particular, good agreement of frequency dependence of total attenuation in CED and in the regions that contributed most strong-motion records for ground motion prediction equations used in PSHA in Croatia indicates that those were well chosen and applicable to this area as far as their attenuation properties are concerned.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq Using Complete Earthquake Catalogue Files

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ameer, A. S.; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.; Alsinawi, S. A.

2005-05-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for Iraq. The earthquake catalogue used in the present study covers an area between latitude 29° 38.5° N and longitude 39° 50° E containing more than a thousand events for the period 1905 2000. The entire Iraq region has been divided into thirteen seismogenic sources based on their seismic characteristics, geological setting and tectonic framework. The completeness of the seismicity catalogue has been checked using the method proposed by Stepp (1972). The analysis of completeness shows that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below Ms=4.8 for all of Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8, while it varies for the other seismic zones. A statistical treatment of completeness of the data file was carried out in each of the magnitude classes. The Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) for the study area including all seismic source zones were established and the minimum magnitude of complete reporting (Mc) were then estimated. For the entire Iraq the Mc was estimated to be about Ms=4.0 while S11 shows the lowest Mc to be about Ms=3.5 and the highest Mc of about Ms=4.2 was observed for S4. The earthquake activity parameters (activity rate λ, b value, maximum regional magnitude mmax) as well as the mean return period (R) with a certain lower magnitude mmin ≥ m along with their probability of occurrence have been determined for all thirteen seismic source zones of Iraq. The maximum regional magnitude mmax was estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for entire Iraq. The return period for magnitude 6.0 is largest for source zone S3 which is estimated to be 705 years while the smallest value is estimated as 9.9 years for all of Iraq.

Prediction of Strong Earthquake Ground Motion for the M=7.4 and M=7.2 1999, Turkey Earthquakes based upon Geological Structure Modeling and Local Earthquake Recordings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gok, R.; Hutchings, L.

2004-05-01

We test a means to predict strong ground motion using the Mw=7.4 and Mw=7.2 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes. We generate 100 rupture scenarios for each earthquake, constrained by a prior knowledge, and use these to synthesize strong ground motion and make the prediction. Ground motion is synthesized with the representation relation using impulsive point source Green's functions and synthetic source models. We synthesize the earthquakes from DC to 25 Hz. We demonstrate how to incorporate this approach into standard probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). The synthesis of earthquakes is based upon analysis of over 3,000 aftershocks recorded by several seismic networks. The analysis provides source parameters of the aftershocks; records available for use as empirical Green's functions; and a three-dimensional velocity structure from tomographic inversion. The velocity model is linked to a finite difference wave propagation code (E3D, Larsen 1998) to generate synthetic Green's functions (DC < f < 0.5 Hz). We performed the simultaneous inversion for hypocenter locations and three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure of the Marmara region using SIMULPS14 along with 2,500 events. We also obtained source moment and corner frequency and individual station attenuation parameter estimates for over 500 events by performing a simultaneous inversion to fit these parameters with a Brune source model. We used the results of the source inversion to deconvolve out a Brune model from small to moderate size earthquake (M<4.0) recordings to obtain empirical Green's functions for the higher frequency range of ground motion (0.5 < f < 25.0 Hz). Work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-ENG-48.

Development of Response Spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations from Empirical Models for Fourier Spectra and Duration of Ground Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, S. S.; Scherbaum, F.; Kuehn, N. M.; Stafford, P.; Edwards, B.

2014-12-01

In a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) framework, it still remains a challenge to adjust ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for application in different seismological environments. In this context, this study presents a complete framework for the development of a response spectral GMPE easily adjustable to different seismological conditions; and which does not suffer from the technical problems associated with the adjustment in response spectral domain. Essentially, the approach consists of an empirical FAS (Fourier Amplitude Spectrum) model and a duration model for ground motion which are combined within the random vibration theory (RVT) framework to obtain the full response spectral ordinates. Additionally, FAS corresponding to individual acceleration records are extrapolated beyond the frequency range defined by the data using the stochastic FAS model, obtained by inversion as described in Edwards & Faeh, (2013). To that end, an empirical model for a duration, which is tuned to optimize the fit between RVT based and observed response spectral ordinate, at each oscillator frequency is derived. Although, the main motive of the presented approach was to address the adjustability issues of response spectral GMPEs; comparison, of median predicted response spectra with the other regional models indicate that presented approach can also be used as a stand-alone model. Besides that, a significantly lower aleatory variability (σ<0.5 in log units) in comparison to other regional models, at shorter periods brands it to a potentially viable alternative to the classical regression (on response spectral ordinates) based GMPEs for seismic hazard studies in the near future. The dataset used for the presented analysis is a subset of the recently compiled database RESORCE-2012 across Europe, Middle East and the Mediterranean region.

PEER NGA-East Overview: Development of a Ground Motion Characterization Model (Ground Motion Prediction Equations) for Central and Eastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goulet, C. A.; Abrahamson, N. A.; Al Atik, L.; Atkinson, G. M.; Bozorgnia, Y.; Graves, R. W.; Kuehn, N. M.; Youngs, R. R.

2017-12-01

The Next Generation Attenuation project for Central and Eastern North America (CENA), NGA-East, is a major multi-disciplinary project coordinated by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER). The project was co-sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). NGA-East involved a large number of participating researchers from various organizations in academia, industry and government and was carried-out as a combination of 1) a scientific research project and 2) a model-building component following the NRC Seismic Senior Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 process. The science part of the project led to several data products and technical reports while the SSHAC component aggregated the various results into a ground motion characterization (GMC) model. The GMC model consists in a set of ground motion models (GMMs) for median and standard deviation of ground motions and their associated weights, combined into logic-trees for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). NGA-East addressed many technical challenges, most of them related to the relatively small number of earthquake recordings available for CENA. To resolve this shortcoming, the project relied on ground motion simulations to supplement the available data. Other important scientific issues were addressed through research projects on topics such as the regionalization of seismic source, path and attenuation of motions, the treatment of variability and uncertainties and on the evaluation of site effects. Seven working groups were formed to cover the complexity and breadth of topics in the NGA-East project, each focused on a specific technical area. This presentation provides an overview of the NGA-East research project and its key products.

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Methodology for earthquake rupture rate estimates of fault networks: example for the western Corinth rift, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Lyon-Caen, Hélène; Boiselet, Aurélien

2017-10-01

Modeling the seismic potential of active faults is a fundamental step of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). An accurate estimation of the rate of earthquakes on the faults is necessary in order to obtain the probability of exceedance of a given ground motion. Most PSHA studies consider faults as independent structures and neglect the possibility of multiple faults or fault segments rupturing simultaneously (fault-to-fault, FtF, ruptures). The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF-3) model takes into account this possibility by considering a system-level approach rather than an individual-fault-level approach using the geological, seismological and geodetical information to invert the earthquake rates. In many places of the world seismological and geodetical information along fault networks is often not well constrained. There is therefore a need to propose a methodology relying on geological information alone to compute earthquake rates of the faults in the network. In the proposed methodology, a simple distance criteria is used to define FtF ruptures and consider single faults or FtF ruptures as an aleatory uncertainty, similarly to UCERF-3. Rates of earthquakes on faults are then computed following two constraints: the magnitude frequency distribution (MFD) of earthquakes in the fault system as a whole must follow an a priori chosen shape and the rate of earthquakes on each fault is determined by the specific slip rate of each segment depending on the possible FtF ruptures. The modeled earthquake rates are then compared to the available independent data (geodetical, seismological and paleoseismological data) in order to weight different hypothesis explored in a logic tree.The methodology is tested on the western Corinth rift (WCR), Greece, where recent advancements have been made in the understanding of the geological slip rates of the complex network of normal faults which are accommodating the ˜ 15 mm yr-1 north-south extension. Modeling results show that geological, seismological and paleoseismological rates of earthquakes cannot be reconciled with only single-fault-rupture scenarios and require hypothesizing a large spectrum of possible FtF rupture sets. In order to fit the imposed regional Gutenberg-Richter (GR) MFD target, some of the slip along certain faults needs to be accommodated either with interseismic creep or as post-seismic processes. Furthermore, computed individual faults' MFDs differ depending on the position of each fault in the system and the possible FtF ruptures associated with the fault. Finally, a comparison of modeled earthquake rupture rates with those deduced from the regional and local earthquake catalog statistics and local paleoseismological data indicates a better fit with the FtF rupture set constructed with a distance criteria based on 5 km rather than 3 km, suggesting a high connectivity of faults in the WCR fault system.

Updated Colombian Seismic Hazard Map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eraso, J.; Arcila, M.; Romero, J.; Dimate, C.; Bermúdez, M. L.; Alvarado, C.

2013-05-01

The Colombian seismic hazard map used by the National Building Code (NSR-98) in effect until 2009 was developed in 1996. Since then, the National Seismological Network of Colombia has improved in both coverage and technology providing fifteen years of additional seismic records. These improvements have allowed a better understanding of the regional geology and tectonics which in addition to the seismic activity in Colombia with destructive effects has motivated the interest and the need to develop a new seismic hazard assessment in this country. Taking advantage of new instrumental information sources such as new broad band stations of the National Seismological Network, new historical seismicity data, standardized global databases availability, and in general, of advances in models and techniques, a new Colombian seismic hazard map was developed. A PSHA model was applied. The use of the PSHA model is because it incorporates the effects of all seismic sources that may affect a particular site solving the uncertainties caused by the parameters and assumptions defined in this kind of studies. First, the seismic sources geometry and a complete and homogeneous seismic catalog were defined; the parameters of seismic rate of each one of the seismic sources occurrence were calculated establishing a national seismotectonic model. Several of attenuation-distance relationships were selected depending on the type of seismicity considered. The seismic hazard was estimated using the CRISIS2007 software created by the Engineering Institute of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México -UNAM (National Autonomous University of Mexico). A uniformly spaced grid each 0.1° was used to calculate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and response spectral values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 and 3.0 seconds with return periods of 75, 225, 475, 975 and 2475 years. For each site, a uniform hazard spectrum and exceedance rate curves were calculated. With the results, it is possible to determinate environments and scenarios where the seismic hazard is a function of distance and magnitude and also the principal seismic sources that contribute to the seismic hazard at each site (dissagregation). This project was conducted by the Servicio Geológico Colombiano (Colombian Geological Survey) and the Universidad Nacional de Colombia (National University of Colombia), with the collaboration of national and foreign experts and the National System of Prevention and Attention of Disaster (SNPAD). It is important to stand out that this new seismic hazard map was used in the updated national building code (NSR-10). A new process is ongoing in order to improve and present the Seismic Hazard Map in terms of intensity. This require new knowledge in site effects, in both local and regional scales, checking the existing and develop new acceleration to intensity relationships, in order to obtain results more understandable and useful for a wider range of users, not only in the engineering field, but also all the risk assessment and management institutions, research and general community.

Earthquake Prediction in a Big Data World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.

2016-12-01

The digital revolution started just about 15 years ago has already surpassed the global information storage capacity of more than 5000 Exabytes (in optimally compressed bytes) per year. Open data in a Big Data World provides unprecedented opportunities for enhancing studies of the Earth System. However, it also opens wide avenues for deceptive associations in inter- and transdisciplinary data and for inflicted misleading predictions based on so-called "precursors". Earthquake prediction is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics. So far, none of the proposed short-term precursory signals showed sufficient evidence to be used as a reliable precursor of catastrophic earthquakes. Regretfully, in many cases of seismic hazard assessment (SHA), from term-less to time-dependent (probabilistic PSHA or deterministic DSHA), and short-term earthquake forecasting (StEF), the claims of a high potential of the method are based on a flawed application of statistics and, therefore, are hardly suitable for communication to decision makers. Self-testing must be done in advance claiming prediction of hazardous areas and/or times. The necessity and possibility of applying simple tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies, and Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a metric of the alerted space, is evident. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, can be easily compared to random guessing, which comparison permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of parameters in regard to a given cost-benefit function. These and other information obtained in such a simple testing may supply us with a realistic estimates of confidence and accuracy of SHA predictions and, if reliable but not necessarily perfect, with related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. The examples of independent expertize of "seismic hazard maps", "precursors", and "forecast/prediction methods" are provided.

Interseismic Coupling on the Quito Fault System in Ecuador Using New GPS and InSAR Data and Its Implication on Seismic Hazard Assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariniere, J.; Champenois, J.; Nocquet, J. M.; Beauval, C. M.; Audin, L.; Baize, S.; Alvarado, A. P.; Yepes, H. A.; Jomard, H.

2017-12-01

Quito, the capital of Ecuador hosting two million inhabitants lies on an active reverse fault system within the Andes. Regular moderate size earthquakes (M 5) occur on these faults, widely felt within the city and its surrounding. Despite a relatively small magnitude of Mw 5.1, the 2014 August 12 earthquake triggered landslides that killed 4 people, cut off one of the main highways for several weeks and caused the temporary shutdown of the airport. Quantifying the seismic potential of the Quito fault system is therefore crucial for a better preparation and mitigation to seismic risk. Previous work using a limited GPS data set found that the Quito fault accommodates 4 mm/yr of EW shortening (Alvarado et al., 2014) at shallow locking depths (3-7 km). We combine GPS and new InSAR data to extend the previous analysis and better quantify the spatial distribution of locking of the Quito fault. GPS dataset includes new continuous sites operating since 2013. 18 ERS SAR scenes, spanning the 1993-2000 time period and covering an area of 85 km by 30 km, were processed using a Permanent Scatter strategy. We perform a joint inversion of both data set (GPS and InSAR) to infer a new and better-constrained kinematic model of the fault to determine both the slip rate and the locking distribution at depth. We find a highly variable level of locking which changes along strike. At some segments, sharp displacement gradients observed both for GPS and InSAR suggest that the fault is creeping up to the surface, while shallow locking is found for other segments. Previous Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment studies have shown that the Quito fault fully controls the hazard in Quito city (Beauval et al. 2014). The results will be used to improve the forecast of earthquakes on the Quito fault system for PSHA studies.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local decision makers in implementing specific prevention and mitigation measures that are consistent with a broad risk reduction strategy.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Eastern and Central groups of the Azores - Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontiela, João; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Rosset, Philippe; Borges, José; Rodrigues, Francisco; Caldeira, Bento

2017-04-01

Azores islands of the Eastern and Central groups are located at the triple junction of the American, Eurasian and Nubian plates inducing a large number of low magnitude earthquakes. Since its settlement in the 15th century, 33 earthquakes with intensity ≥ VII have caused severe damage and high death toll. The most severe ones occurred in 1522 at São Miguel Island with a maximum MM intensity of X; in 1614 at Terceira Island (X) in 1757 at São Jorge Island (XI); 1852 at São Miguel Island (VIII); 1926 at Faial Island (Mb 5.3-5.9); in 1980 at Terceira Island (Mw7.1) and in 1998 at Faial Island (Mw6.2). The analysis of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) were carried out using the classical Cornell-McGuire approach using seismogenic zones recently defined by Fontiela et al. (2014). We create a new earthquake catalogue merging local and global datasets with a large time span (1522 - 2016) to calculate recurrence times and maximum magnitudes. In order to reduce the epistemic uncertainties, we test several ground motion prediction equations in agreement with the geological heterogeneities typical of young volcanic islands. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps are proposed for 475 and 975 years returns periods as well as hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra for the main cities. REFERENCES: Fontiela, J. et al., 2014. Azores seismogenic zones. Comunicações Geológicas, 101(1), pp.351-354. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: João Fontiela is supported by grant M3.1.2/F/060/2011 of Regional Science Fund of the Regional Government Azores and this study is co-funded by the European Union through the European fund of Regional Development, framed in COMPETE 2020 (Operational Competitiveness Programme and Internationalization) through the ICT project (UID/GEO/04683/2013) with the reference POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007690.

Errors in Seismic Hazard Assessment are Creating Huge Human Losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bela, J.

2015-12-01

The current practice of representing earthquake hazards to the public based upon their perceived likelihood or probability of occurrence is proven now by the global record of actual earthquakes to be not only erroneous and unreliable, but also too deadly! Earthquake occurrence is sporadic and therefore assumptions of earthquake frequency and return-period are both not only misleading, but also categorically false. More than 700,000 people have now lost their lives (2000-2011), wherein 11 of the World's Deadliest Earthquakes have occurred in locations where probability-based seismic hazard assessments had predicted only low seismic low hazard. Unless seismic hazard assessment and the setting of minimum earthquake design safety standards for buildings and bridges are based on a more realistic deterministic recognition of "what can happen" rather than on what mathematical models suggest is "most likely to happen" such future huge human losses can only be expected to continue! The actual earthquake events that did occur were at or near the maximum potential-size event that either already had occurred in the past; or were geologically known to be possible. Haiti's M7 earthquake, 2010 (with > 222,000 fatalities) meant the dead could not even be buried with dignity. Japan's catastrophic Tohoku earthquake, 2011; a M9 Megathrust earthquake, unleashed a tsunami that not only obliterated coastal communities along the northern Japanese coast, but also claimed > 20,000 lives. This tsunami flooded nuclear reactors at Fukushima, causing 4 explosions and 3 reactors to melt down. But while this history of huge human losses due to erroneous and misleading seismic hazard estimates, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived; if faced with courage and a more realistic deterministic estimate of "what is possible", it need not be lived again. An objective testing of the results of global probability based seismic hazard maps against real occurrences has never been done by the GSHAP team; even though the obvious inadequacy of the GSHAP map could have been established in the course of a simple check before the project completion. The doctrine of "psha exceptionalism" that created the maps can only be esponged by carefully examining the facts . . . which unfortunately include huge human losses!

Active Faults and Seismic Sources of the Middle East Region: Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulen, L.; EMME WP2 Team*

2011-12-01

The Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) Project is a regional project of the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) project (http://www.emme-gem.org/). The EMME project covers Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Both EMME and SHARE projects overlap and Turkey becomes a bridge connecting the two projects. The Middle East region is tectonically and seismically very active part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. Many major earthquakes have occurred in this region over the years causing casualties in the millions. The EMME project consists of three main modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic modules. The EMME project uses PSHA approach for earthquake hazard and the existing source models have been revised or modified by the incorporation of newly acquired data. The most distinguishing aspect of the EMME project from the previous ones is its dynamic character. This very important characteristic is accomplished by the design of a flexible and scalable database that permits continuous update, refinement, and analysis. An up-to-date earthquake catalog of the Middle East region has been prepared and declustered by the WP1 team. EMME WP2 team has prepared a digital active fault map of the Middle East region in ArcGIS format. We have constructed a database of fault parameters for active faults that are capable of generating earthquakes above a threshold magnitude of Mw≥5.5. The EMME project database includes information on the geometry and rates of movement of faults in a "Fault Section Database", which contains 36 entries for each fault section. The "Fault Section" concept has a physical significance, in that if one or more fault parameters change, a new fault section is defined along a fault zone. So far 6,991 Fault Sections have been defined and 83,402 km of faults are fully parameterized in the Middle East region. A separate "Paleo-Sites Database" includes information on the timing and amounts of fault displacement for major fault zones. A digital reference library, that includes the pdf files of relevant papers, reports and maps, is also prepared. A logic tree approach is utilized to encompass different interpretations for the areas where there is no consensus. Finally seismic source zones in the Middle East region have been delineated using all available data. *EMME Project WP2 Team: Levent Gülen, Murat Utkucu, M. Dinçer Köksal, Hilal Yalçin, Yigit Ince, Mine Demircioglu, Shota Adamia, Nino Sadradze, Aleksandre Gvencadze, Arkadi Karakhanyan, Mher Avanesyan, Tahir Mammadli, Gurban Yetirmishli, Arif Axundov, Khaled Hessami, M. Asif Khan, M. Sayab.

Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) Project: Active Fault Database for the Middle East Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülen, L.; Wp2 Team

2010-12-01

The Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) Project is a regional project of the umbrella GEM (Global Earthquake Model) project (http://www.emme-gem.org/). EMME project region includes Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Both EMME and SHARE projects overlap and Turkey becomes a bridge connecting the two projects. The Middle East region is tectonically and seismically very active part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. Many major earthquakes have occurred in this region over the years causing casualties in the millions. The EMME project will use PSHA approach and the existing source models will be revised or modified by the incorporation of newly acquired data. More importantly the most distinguishing aspect of the EMME project from the previous ones will be its dynamic character. This very important characteristic is accomplished by the design of a flexible and scalable database that will permit continuous update, refinement, and analysis. A digital active fault map of the Middle East region is under construction in ArcGIS format. We are developing a database of fault parameters for active faults that are capable of generating earthquakes above a threshold magnitude of Mw≥5.5. Similar to the WGCEP-2007 and UCERF-2 projects, the EMME project database includes information on the geometry and rates of movement of faults in a “Fault Section Database”. The “Fault Section” concept has a physical significance, in that if one or more fault parameters change, a new fault section is defined along a fault zone. So far over 3,000 Fault Sections have been defined and parameterized for the Middle East region. A separate “Paleo-Sites Database” includes information on the timing and amounts of fault displacement for major fault zones. A digital reference library that includes the pdf files of the relevant papers, reports is also being prepared. Another task of the WP-2 of the EMME project is to prepare a strain and slip rate map of the Middle East region by basically compiling already published data. The third task is to calculate b-values, Mmax and determine the activity rates. New data and evidences will be interpreted to revise or modify the existing source models. A logic tree approach will be utilized for the areas where there is no consensus to encompass different interpretations. Finally seismic source zones in the Middle East region will be delineated using all available data. EMME Project WP2 Team: Levent Gülen, Murat Utkucu, M. Dinçer Köksal, Hilal Domaç, Yigit Ince, Mine Demircioglu, Shota Adamia, Nino Sandradze, Aleksandre Gvencadze, Arkadi Karakhanyan, Mher Avanesyan, Tahir Mammadli, Gurban Yetirmishli, Arif Axundov, Khaled Hessami, M. Asif Khan, M. Sayab.

Adapting Surface Ground Motion Relations to Underground conditions: A case study for the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory in Sudbury, Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babaie Mahani, A.; Eaton, D. W.

2013-12-01

Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are widely used in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) to estimate ground-motion amplitudes at Earth's surface as a function of magnitude and distance. Certain applications, such as hazard assessment for caprock integrity in the case of underground storage of CO2, waste disposal sites, and underground pipelines, require subsurface estimates of ground motion; at present, such estimates depend upon theoretical modeling and simulations. The objective of this study is to derive correction factors for GMPEs to enable estimation of amplitudes in the subsurface. We use a semi-analytic approach along with finite-difference simulations of ground-motion amplitudes for surface and underground motions. Spectral ratios of underground to surface motions are used to calculate the correction factors. Two predictive methods are used. The first is a semi-analytic approach based on a quarter-wavelength method that is widely used for earthquake site-response investigations; the second is a numerical approach based on elastic finite-difference simulations of wave propagation. Both methods are evaluated using recordings of regional earthquakes by broadband seismometers installed at the surface and at depths of 1400 m and 2100 m in the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory, Canada. Overall, both methods provide a reasonable fit to the peaks and troughs observed in the ratios of real data. The finite-difference method, however, has the capability to simulate ground motion ratios more accurately than the semi-analytic approach.

Quantifying uncertainty in NDSHA estimates due to earthquake catalogue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magrin, Andrea; Peresan, Antonella; Vaccari, Franco; Panza, Giuliano

2014-05-01

The procedure for the neo-deterministic seismic zoning, NDSHA, is based on the calculation of synthetic seismograms by the modal summation technique. This approach makes use of information about the space distribution of large magnitude earthquakes, which can be defined based on seismic history and seismotectonics, as well as incorporating information from a wide set of geological and geophysical data (e.g., morphostructural features and ongoing deformation processes identified by earth observations). Hence the method does not make use of attenuation models (GMPE), which may be unable to account for the complexity of the product between seismic source tensor and medium Green function and are often poorly constrained by the available observations. NDSHA defines the hazard from the envelope of the values of ground motion parameters determined considering a wide set of scenario earthquakes; accordingly, the simplest outcome of this method is a map where the maximum of a given seismic parameter is associated to each site. In NDSHA uncertainties are not statistically treated as in PSHA, where aleatory uncertainty is traditionally handled with probability density functions (e.g., for magnitude and distance random variables) and epistemic uncertainty is considered by applying logic trees that allow the use of alternative models and alternative parameter values of each model, but the treatment of uncertainties is performed by sensitivity analyses for key modelling parameters. To fix the uncertainty related to a particular input parameter is an important component of the procedure. The input parameters must account for the uncertainty in the prediction of fault radiation and in the use of Green functions for a given medium. A key parameter is the magnitude of sources used in the simulation that is based on catalogue informations, seismogenic zones and seismogenic nodes. Because the largest part of the existing catalogues is based on macroseismic intensity, a rough estimate of ground motion error can therefore be the factor of 2, intrinsic in MCS scale. We tested this hypothesis by the analysis of uncertainty in ground motion maps due to the catalogue random errors in magnitude and localization.

Using CyberShake Workflows to Manage Big Seismic Hazard Data on Large-Scale Open-Science HPC Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callaghan, S.; Maechling, P. J.; Juve, G.; Vahi, K.; Deelman, E.; Jordan, T. H.

2015-12-01

The CyberShake computational platform, developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), is an integrated collection of scientific software and middleware that performs 3D physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Southern California. CyberShake integrates large-scale and high-throughput research codes to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for individual locations of interest and hazard maps for an entire region. A recent CyberShake calculation produced about 500,000 two-component seismograms for each of 336 locations, resulting in over 300 million synthetic seismograms in a Los Angeles-area probabilistic seismic hazard model. CyberShake calculations require a series of scientific software programs. Early computational stages produce data used as inputs by later stages, so we describe CyberShake calculations using a workflow definition language. Scientific workflow tools automate and manage the input and output data and enable remote job execution on large-scale HPC systems. To satisfy the requests of broad impact users of CyberShake data, such as seismologists, utility companies, and building code engineers, we successfully completed CyberShake Study 15.4 in April and May 2015, calculating a 1 Hz urban seismic hazard map for Los Angeles. We distributed the calculation between the NSF Track 1 system NCSA Blue Waters, the DOE Leadership-class system OLCF Titan, and USC's Center for High Performance Computing. This study ran for over 5 weeks, burning about 1.1 million node-hours and producing over half a petabyte of data. The CyberShake Study 15.4 results doubled the maximum simulated seismic frequency from 0.5 Hz to 1.0 Hz as compared to previous studies, representing a factor of 16 increase in computational complexity. We will describe how our workflow tools supported splitting the calculation across multiple systems. We will explain how we modified CyberShake software components, including GPU implementations and migrating from file-based communication to MPI messaging, to greatly reduce the I/O demands and node-hour requirements of CyberShake. We will also present performance metrics from CyberShake Study 15.4, and discuss challenges that producers of Big Data on open-science HPC resources face moving forward.

The SCEC Community Modeling Environment(SCEC/CME): A Collaboratory for Seismic Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maechling, P. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Minster, J. B.; Moore, R.; Kesselman, C.

2005-12-01

The SCEC Community Modeling Environment (SCEC/CME) Project is an NSF-supported Geosciences/IT partnership that is actively developing an advanced information infrastructure for system-level earthquake science in Southern California. This partnership includes SCEC, USC's Information Sciences Institute (ISI), the San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC), the Incorporated Institutions for Research in Seismology (IRIS), and the U.S. Geological Survey. The goal of the SCEC/CME is to develop seismological applications and information technology (IT) infrastructure to support the development of Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) programs and other geophysical simulations. The SHA application programs developed on the Project include a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis system called OpenSHA. OpenSHA computational elements that are currently available include a collection of attenuation relationships, and several Earthquake Rupture Forecasts (ERFs). Geophysicists in the collaboration have also developed Anelastic Wave Models (AWMs) using both finite-difference and finite-element approaches. Earthquake simulations using these codes have been run for a variety of earthquake sources. Rupture Dynamic Model (RDM) codes have also been developed that simulate friction-based fault slip. The SCEC/CME collaboration has also developed IT software and hardware infrastructure to support the development, execution, and analysis of these SHA programs. To support computationally expensive simulations, we have constructed a grid-based scientific workflow system. Using the SCEC grid, project collaborators can submit computations from the SCEC/CME servers to High Performance Computers at USC and TeraGrid High Performance Computing Centers. Data generated and archived by the SCEC/CME is stored in a digital library system, the Storage Resource Broker (SRB). This system provides a robust and secure system for maintaining the association between the data seta and their metadata. To provide an easy-to-use system for constructing SHA computations, a browser-based workflow assembly web portal has been developed. Users can compose complex SHA calculations, specifying SCEC/CME data sets as inputs to calculations, and calling SCEC/CME computational programs to process the data and the output. Knowledge-based software tools have been implemented that utilize ontological descriptions of SHA software and data can validate workflows created with this pathway assembly tool. Data visualization software developed by the collaboration supports analysis and validation of data sets. Several programs have been developed to visualize SCEC/CME data including GMT-based map making software for PSHA codes, 4D wavefield propagation visualization software based on OpenGL, and 3D Geowall-based visualization of earthquakes, faults, and seismic wave propagation. The SCEC/CME Project also helps to sponsor the SCEC UseIT Intern program. The UseIT Intern Program provides research opportunities in both Geosciences and Information Technology to undergraduate students in a variety of fields. The UseIT group has developed a 3D data visualization tool, called SCEC-VDO, as a part of this undergraduate research program.

Regional earthquake loss estimation in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Winter, Benjamin

2013-04-01

Beside storm events geophysical events cause a majority of natural hazard losses on a global scale. However, in alpine regions with a moderate earthquake risk potential like in the study area and thereupon connected consequences on the collective memory this source of risk is often neglected in contrast to gravitational and hydrological hazards processes. In this context, the comparative analysis of potential disasters and emergencies on a national level in Switzerland (Katarisk study) has shown that earthquakes are the most serious source of risk in general. In order to estimate the potential losses of earthquake events for different return periods and loss dimensions of extreme events the following study was conducted in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy). The applied methodology follows the generally accepted risk concept based on the risk components hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability, whereby risk is not defined holistically (direct, indirect, tangible and intangible) but with the risk category losses on buildings and inventory as a general risk proxy. The hazard analysis is based on a regional macroseismic scenario approach. Thereby, the settlement centre of each community (116 communities) is defined as potential epicentre. For each epicentre four different epicentral scenarios (return periods of 98, 475, 975 and 2475 years) are calculated based on the simple but approved and generally accepted attenuation law according to Sponheuer (1960). The relevant input parameters to calculate the epicentral scenarios are (i) the macroseismic intensity and (ii) the focal depth. The considered macroseismic intensities are based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Italian earthquake catalogue on a community level (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile). The relevant focal depth are considered as a mean within a defined buffer of the focal depths of the harmonized earthquake catalogues of Italy and Switzerland as well as earthquake data of the US Geological Survey (USGS). The asset database to identify the elements at risk is developed under consideration of an address dataset, the land-use plan, official building footprints, building heights based on a normalized digital surface model, official construction costs for different building types (buildings cross cubatures), official statistical data concerning households on community level and insurance data based mean inventory values. To analyse the structural vulnerability and consequently the potential structural losses, community specific mean damage ratios based on the EMS-98 approach and the historic development of the building stock within the individual communities are estimated. Inventory losses are assumed with 30 percent of the structural losses. Thus, for each epicentre a loss-frequency-relationship can be calculated and the most severe epicentral scenarios can be identified.

Probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis at liquefied sites of 1956 Dunaharaszti earthquake, in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Győri, Erzsébet; Gráczer, Zoltán; Tóth, László; Bán, Zoltán; Horváth, Tibor

2017-04-01

Liquefaction potential evaluations are generally made to assess the hazard from specific scenario earthquakes. These evaluations may estimate the potential in a binary fashion (yes/no), define a factor of safety or predict the probability of liquefaction given a scenario event. Usually the level of ground shaking is obtained from the results of PSHA. Although it is determined probabilistically, a single level of ground shaking is selected and used within the liquefaction potential evaluation. In contrary, the fully probabilistic liquefaction potential assessment methods provide a complete picture of liquefaction hazard, namely taking into account the joint probability distribution of PGA and magnitude of earthquake scenarios; both of which are key inputs in the stress-based simplified methods. Kramer and Mayfield (2007) has developed a fully probabilistic liquefaction potential evaluation method using a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. The results of the procedure are the direct estimate of the return period of liquefaction and the liquefaction hazard curves in function of depth. The method combines the disaggregation matrices computed for different exceedance frequencies during probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with one of the recent models for the conditional probability of liquefaction. We have developed a software for the assessment of performance-based liquefaction triggering on the basis of Kramer and Mayfield method. Originally the SPT based probabilistic method of Cetin et al. (2004) was built-in into the procedure of Kramer and Mayfield to compute the conditional probability however there is no professional consensus about its applicability. Therefore we have included not only Cetin's method but Idriss and Boulanger (2012) SPT based moreover Boulanger and Idriss (2014) CPT based procedures into our computer program. In 1956, a damaging earthquake of magnitude 5.6 occurred in Dunaharaszti, in Hungary. Its epicenter was located about 5 km from the southern boundary of Budapest. The quake caused serious damages in the epicentral area and in the southern districts of the capital. The epicentral area of the earthquake is located along the Danube River. Sand boils were observed in some locations that indicated the occurrence of liquefaction. Because their exact locations were recorded at the time of the earthquake, in situ geotechnical measurements (CPT and SPT) could be performed at two (Dunaharaszti and Taksony) sites. The different types of measurements enabled the probabilistic liquefaction hazard computations at the two studied sites. We have compared the return periods of liquefaction that were computed using different built-in simplified stress based methods.

Evaluation of the Seismic Hazard in Venezuela with a revised seismic catalog that seeks for harmonization along the country borders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rendon, H.; Alvarado, L.; Paolini, M.; Olbrich, F.; González, J.; Ascanio, W.

2013-05-01

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment is a complex endeavor that relies on the quality of the information that comes from different sources: the seismic catalog, active faults parameters, strain rates, etc. Having this in mind, during the last several months, the FUNVISIS seismic hazard group has been working on a review and update of the local data base that form the basis for a reliable PSHA calculation. In particular, the seismic catalog, which provides the necessary information that allows the evaluation of the critical b-value, which controls how seismic occurrence distributes with magnitude, has received particular attention. The seismic catalog is the result of the effort of several generations of researchers along the years; therefore, the catalog necessarily suffers from the lack of consistency, homogeneity and completeness for all ranges of magnitude over any seismic study area. Merging the FUNVISIS instrumental catalog with the ones obtained from international agencies, we present the work that we have been doing to produce a consistent seismic catalog that covers Venezuela entirely, with seismic events starting from 1910 until 2012, and report the magnitude of completeness for the different periods. Also, we present preliminary results on the Seismic Hazard evaluation that takes into account such instrumental catalog, the historical catalog, updated known fault geometries and its correspondent parameters, and the new seismic sources that have been defined accordingly. Within the spirit of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM), all these efforts look for possible bridges with neighboring countries to establish consistent hazard maps across the borders.

Dynamical behavior of psb gene transcripts in greening wheat seedlings. I. Time course of accumulation of the pshA through psbN gene transcripts during light-induced greening.

PubMed

Kawaguchi, H; Fukuda, I; Shiina, T; Toyoshima, Y

1992-11-01

The time course of the accumulation of the transcripts from 13 psb genes encoding a major part of the proteins composing photosystem II during light-induced greening of dark-grown wheat seedlings was examined focusing on early stages of plastid development (0.5 h through 72 h). The 13 genes can be divided into three groups. (1) The psbA gene is transcribed as a single transcript of 1.3 kb in the dark-grown seedlings, but its level increases 5- to 7-fold in response to light due to selective increase in RNA stability as well as in transcription activity. (2) The psbE-F-L-J operon, psbM and psbN genes are transcribed as a single transcript of 1.1 kb, two transcripts of 0.5 and 0.7 kb and a single transcript of 0.3 kb, respectively, in the dark-grown seedlings. The levels of accumulation of every transcript remain unchanged or rather decrease during plastid development under illumination. (3) The psbK-I-D-C gene cluster and psbB-H operon exhibit fairly complicated northern hybridization patterns during the greening process. When a psbC or psbD gene probe was used for northern hybridization, five transcripts differing in length were detected in the etioplasts from 5-day old dark-grown seedlings. After 2 h illumination, two new transcripts of different length appeared. Light induction of new transcripts was also observed in the psbB-H operon.

Physics-Based Broadband Ground Motion Simulations in Near Fault Conditions: the L'Aquila (Italy) and the Upper Rhine Graben (France-Germany) Case of Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Gaudio, S.; Lancieri, M.; Hok, S.; Satriano, C.; Chartier, T.; Scotti, O.; Bernard, P.

2016-12-01

Predictions of realistic ground motion for potential future earthquakes are always an interesting task for seismologists and are also the main objective of seismic hazard assessment. While, on one hand, numerical simulations have become more and more accurate and several different techniques have been developed, on the other hand ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have become a powerful instrument (due to great improvement of seismic strong motion networks providing a large amount of data). Nevertheless GMPEs do not represent the whole variety of source processes and this can lead to incorrect estimates especially in the near fault conditions because of the lack of records of large earthquakes at short distances. In such cases, physics-based ground motion simulations can be a valid tool to complement prediction equations for scenario studies, provided that both source and propagation are accurately described. We present here a comparison between numerical simulations performed in near fault conditions using two different kinematic source models, which are based on different assumptions and parameterizations: the "k-2 model" and the "fractal model". Wave propagation is taken into account using hybrid Green's function (HGF), which consists in coupling numerical Green's function with an empirical Green's function (EGF) approach. The advantage of this technique is that it does not require a very detailed knowledge of the propagation medium, but requires availability of high quality records of small earthquakes in the target area. The first application we show is on L'Aquila 2009 M 6.3 earthquake, where the main event records provide a benchmark for the synthetic waveforms. Here we can clearly observe which are the limitations of these techniques and investigate which are the physical parameters that are effectively controlling the ground motion level. The second application is a blind test on Upper Rhine Graben (URG) where active faults producing micro seismic activity are very close to sites of interest needing a careful investigation of seismic hazard. Finally we will perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the URG using numerical simulations to define input ground motion for different scenarios and compare them with a classical probabilistic study based on GMPEs.

A New Insight into the Earthquake Recurrence Studies from the Three-parameter Generalized Exponential Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasari, S.; Kundu, D.; Dikshit, O.

2012-12-01

Earthquake recurrence interval is one of the important ingredients towards probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for any location. Exponential, gamma, Weibull and lognormal distributions are quite established probability models in this recurrence interval estimation. However, they have certain shortcomings too. Thus, it is imperative to search for some alternative sophisticated distributions. In this paper, we introduce a three-parameter (location, scale and shape) exponentiated exponential distribution and investigate the scope of this distribution as an alternative of the afore-mentioned distributions in earthquake recurrence studies. This distribution is a particular member of the exponentiated Weibull distribution. Despite of its complicated form, it is widely accepted in medical and biological applications. Furthermore, it shares many physical properties with gamma and Weibull family. Unlike gamma distribution, the hazard function of generalized exponential distribution can be easily computed even if the shape parameter is not an integer. To contemplate the plausibility of this model, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0) spanning for the period 1846 to 1995 from North-East Himalayan region (20-32 deg N and 87-100 deg E) has been used. The model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of moment estimator (MOME). No geological or geophysical evidences have been considered in this calculation. The estimated conditional probability reaches quite high after about a decade for an elapsed time of 17 years (i.e. 2012). Moreover, this study shows that the generalized exponential distribution fits the above data events more closely compared to the conventional models and hence it is tentatively concluded that generalized exponential distribution can be effectively considered in earthquake recurrence studies.

Maximum magnitude (Mmax) in the central and eastern United States for the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, Russell L.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment (PSHA) requires an estimate of Mmax, the moment magnitude M of the largest earthquake that could occur within a specified area. Sparse seismicity hinders Mmax estimation in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) and tectonically similar regions worldwide (stable continental regions [SCRs]). A new global catalog of moderate‐to‐large SCR earthquakes is analyzed with minimal assumptions about enigmatic geologic controls on SCR Mmax. An earlier observation that SCR earthquakes of M 7.0 and larger occur in young (250–23 Ma) passive continental margins and associated rifts but not in cratons is not strongly supported by the new catalog. SCR earthquakes of M 7.5 and larger are slightly more numerous and reach slightly higher M in young passive margins and rifts than in cratons. However, overall histograms of M from young margins and rifts and from cratons are statistically indistinguishable. This conclusion is robust under uncertainties inM, the locations of SCR boundaries, and which of two available global SCR catalogs is used. The conclusion stems largely from recent findings that (1) large southeast Asian earthquakes once thought to be SCR were in actively deforming crust and (2) long escarpments in cratonic Australia were formed by prehistoric faulting. The 2014 seismic‐hazard model of the U.S. Geological Survey represents CEUS Mmax as four‐point probability distributions. The distributions have weighted averages of M 7.0 in cratons and M 7.4 in passive margins and rifts. These weighted averages are consistent with Mmax estimates of other SCR PSHAs of the CEUS, southeastern Canada, Australia, and India.

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site Seismic Safety Program: Summary of Findings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savy, J B; Foxall, W

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Site Seismic Safety Program was conceived in 1979 during the preparation of the site Draft Environmental Impact Statement. The impetus for the program came from the development of new methodologies and geologic data that affect assessments of geologic hazards at the LLNL site; it was designed to develop a new assessment of the seismic hazard to the LLNL site and LLNL employees. Secondarily, the program was also intended to provide the technical information needed to make ongoing decisions about design criteria for future construction at LLNL and about the adequacy of existing facilities. Thismore » assessment was intended to be of the highest technical quality and to make use of the most recent and accepted hazard assessment methodologies. The basic purposes and objectives of the current revision are similar to those of the previous studies. Although all the data and experience assembled in the previous studies were utilized to their fullest, the large quantity of new information and new methodologies led to the formation of a new team that includes LLNL staff and outside consultants from academia and private consulting firms. A peer-review panel composed of individuals from academia (A. Cornell, Stanford University), the Department of Energy (DOE; Jeff Kimball), and consulting (Kevin Coppersmith), provided review and guidance. This panel was involved from the beginning of the project in a ''participatory'' type of review. The Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC, a committee sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, DOE, and the Electric Power Research Institute) strongly recommends the use of participatory reviews, in which the reviewers follow the progress of a project from the beginning, rather than waiting until the end to provide comments (Budnitz et al., 1997). Following the requirements for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) stipulated in the DOE standard DOE-STD-1023-95, a special effort was made to identify and quantify all types of uncertainties. The final seismic hazard estimates were de-aggregated to determine the contribution of all the seismic sources as well as the relative contributions of potential future earthquakes in terms of their magnitudes and distances from the site. It was found that, in agreement with previous studies, the Greenville Fault system contributes the most to the estimate of the seismic hazard expressed in terms of the probability of exceedance of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the center of the LLNL site (i.e., at high frequencies). It is followed closely by the Calaveras and Corral Hollow faults. The Mount Diablo thrust and the Springtown and Livermore faults were not considered in the hazard calculations in the 1991 study. In this study they contributed together approximately as much as the Greenville fault. At lower frequencies, more distant faults such as the Hayward and San Andreas faults begin to appear as substantial contributors to the total hazard. The results of this revision are presented in Figures 1 and 2. Figure 1 shows the estimated mean hazard curve in terms of the annual probability of exceedance of the peak ground acceleration (average of the two horizontal orthogonal components) at the LLNL site, assuming that the local site conditions are similar to those of a generic soil. Figure 2 shows the results in terms of the uniform hazard spectra (pseudo-spectral accelerations for 5% damping) for five return periods. Although this latest revision is based on a completely independent and in many respects very different set of data and methodology from the previous one, it gives essentially the same results for the prediction of the peak ground acceleration (PGA), albeit with a reduced uncertainty. The Greenville fault being a dominant contributor to the hazard, a field investigation was performed to better characterize the probability distribution of the rate of slip on the fault. Samples were collected from a trench located on the northern segment of the Greenville fault, and are in the process of being dated at the LLNL Center for Acceleration Mass Spectrometry (CAMS) using carbon-14. Preliminary results from the dating corroborate the range of values used in the hazard calculations. A final update after completion and qualification (quality assurance) of the date measurements, in the near future, will finalize the distribution of this important parameter, probably using Bayesian updating.« less

Combined estimation of kappa and shear-wave velocity profile of the Japanese rock reference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poggi, Valerio; Edwards, Benjamin; Fäh, Donat

2013-04-01

The definition of a common soil or rock reference is a key issue in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), microzonation studies, local site-response analysis and, more generally, when predicted or observed ground motion is compared for sites of different characteristics. A scaling procedure, which accounts for a common reference, is then necessary to avoid bias induced by the differences in the local geology. Nowadays methods requiring the definition of a reference condition generally prescribe the characteristic of a rock reference, calibrated using indirect estimation methods based on geology or on surface proxies. In most cases, a unique average shear-wave velocity value is prescribed (e.g. Vs30 = 800m/s as for class A of the EUROCODE8). Some attempts at defining the whole shape of a reference rock velocity profile have been described, often without a clear physical justification of how such a selection was performed. Moreover, in spite of its relevance in affecting the high-frequency part of the spectrum, the definition of the associated reference attenuation is in most cases missing or, when present, still remains quite uncertain. In this study we propose an approach that is based on the comparison between empirical anelastic amplification functions from spectral modeling of earthquakes and average S-wave velocities computed using the quarter-wavelength approach. The method is an extension of the approach originally proposed by Poggi et al. (2011) for Switzerland, and is here applied to Japan. For the analysis we make use of a selection of 36 stiff-soil and rock sites from the Japanese KiK-net network, for which a measured velocity profile is available. With respect to the previous study, however, we now analyze separately the elastic and anelastic contributions of the estimated empirical amplification. In a first step - which is consistent with the original work - only the elastic part of the amplification spectrum is considered. This procedure allows the retrieval of the shape of the velocity profile that is characterized by no relative amplification within the network. Subsequently, the contribution of intrinsic attenuation is analyzed, disaggregated from the anelastic function by using the frequency independent (and site-dependent) attenuation operator kappa (κ). By comparing the dependency of κ with the quarter-wavelength velocity at selected sites, a frequency-dependent predictive equation is established to model the attenuation characteristics of an arbitrary rock or stiff-soil velocity model, such as the reference model obtained in the first step. The result of this application can be used to model the site-dependent attenuation for any rock and stiff-soil site for which an estimation of the velocity profile or its corresponding quarter-wavelength velocity representation is available. As an additional output of the present study, we also propose a simplified method to estimate kappa from the average velocity estimates over the first 30m (Vs30). We provide an example of such predictions for a range of Vs30 velocities up to 2000m/s.

Initiatives of Application of the Bakun-Wentworth's Method for the Estimation of Macroseismic Parameters in the Northern South America and the Caribbean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez Capera, A.; Bindi, D.; Cifuentes, H.; Choy, J.; Chuy Rodriguez, T.; Garcia, J.; Massa, M.; Palme, C.; Pierristal, G.; Salcedo Hurtado, E.; Sanchez Vasquez, A.

2013-05-01

The assessment of location, magnitude and uncertainties of great historical earthquakes is a key issue for understanding the seismic potential and PSHA of a region. In the last years independent techniques using only macrosesismic data points have been developed as, for example, the approach of Bakun and Wentworth (1997) or BW. This method has been largely applied in different tectonic contexts (Bindi et al., 2013), in different UE international projects and in estimations of location, magnitude and epistemic uncertainties (Bakun et al., 2011). We focus on some regional calibration initiatives in Northern South America and areas of the Caribbean Region. BW has been calibrated by Palme et al. (2005) and Choy et al. (2012) for earthquakes of the Mérida Andes and the Venezuela Central Regions. As well, BW calibrations have been proposed for the interandean Valley in Ecuador (Beauval et al., 2010), in the Hispaniola (Bakun et al, 2012) and for the northeastern Caribbean region (ten Brink et al., 2011). Preliminary BW calibration for the southeastern region of Cuba has been proposed by Gómez-Capera et al. (2012). Applications to historical earthquakes in Cuba have given encouraging results mainly for offshore events and are presented in the present study. We also present preliminary results for some earthquakes that have been recently studied in literature as for example the historical earthquakes of 1743 (Salcedo Hurtado and Gómez-Capera in press) and 1785 (Salcedo Hurtado and Castaño Castaño, 2011) which occurred close to Bogotá, BW method and intensity relationship of the literature were used. We present comparisons and sensibility analysis of the different relationships obtained in the region as well as uncertainty assessment. We also note that the magnitude parameter depends strongly on the regional calibration. Because of the availability of new macroseismic studies in Colombia (Servicio Geológico Colombiano y Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2013; available online in http://agata.ingeominas.gov.co:9090/SismicidadHistórica/), Venezuela (http://sismicidad.ciens.ula.ve) and Caribbean Region, in the future it is expected to propose models for macroseismic intensity attenuations of regional character especially in Colombia and in Venezuela in the Cumaná region. This region has a rich earthquake history. In this topic of the regional calibration of intensity attenuation relationships, the situation is challenging because several historical and recent earthquakes in this region are attributed to subduction zones. It is therefore necessary to involve focal depth. This is still an open problem.

Seismic hazard assessment in the Catania and Siracusa urban areas (Italy) through different approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panzera, Francesco; Lombardo, Giuseppe; Rigano, Rosaria

2010-05-01

The seismic hazard assessment (SHA) can be performed using either Deterministic or Probabilistic approaches. In present study a probabilistic analysis was carried out for the Catania and Siracusa towns using two different procedures: the 'site' (Albarello and Mucciarelli, 2002) and the 'seismotectonic' (Cornell 1968; Esteva, 1967) methodologies. The SASHA code (D'Amico and Albarello, 2007) was used to calculate seismic hazard through the 'site' approach, whereas the CRISIS2007 code (Ordaz et al., 2007) was adopted in the Esteva-Cornell procedure. According to current international conventions for PSHA (SSHAC, 1997), a logic tree approach was followed to consider and reduce the epistemic uncertainties, for both seismotectonic and site methods. The code SASHA handles the intensity data taking into account the macroseismic information of past earthquakes. CRISIS2007 code needs, as input elements, a seismic catalogue tested for completeness, a seismogenetic zonation and ground motion predicting equations. Data concerning the characterization of regional seismic sources and ground motion attenuation properties were taken from the literature. Special care was devoted to define source zone models, taking into account the most recent studies on regional seismotectonic features and, in particular, the possibility of considering the Malta escarpment as a potential source. The combined use of the above mentioned approaches allowed us to obtain useful elements to define the site seismic hazard in Catania and Siracusa. The results point out that the choice of the probabilistic model plays a fundamental role. It is indeed observed that when the site intensity data are used, the town of Catania shows hazard values higher than the ones found for Siracusa, for each considered return period. On the contrary, when the Esteva-Cornell method is used, Siracusa urban area shows higher hazard than Catania, for return periods greater than one hundred years. The higher hazard observed, through the site approach, for Catania area can be interpreted in terms of greater damage historically observed at this town and its smaller distance from the seismogenic structures. On the other hand, the higher level of hazard found for Siracusa, throughout the Esteva-Cornell approach, could be a consequence of the features of such method which spreads out the intensities over a wide area. However, in SHA the use of a combined approach is recommended for a mutual validation of obtained results and any choice between the two approaches is strictly linked to the knowledge of the local seismotectonic features. References Albarello D. and Mucciarelli M.; 2002: Seismic hazard estimates using ill?defined macroseismic data at site. Pure Appl. Geophys., 159, 1289?1304. Cornell C.A.; 1968: Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58(5), 1583-1606. D'Amico V. and Albarello D.; 2007: Codice per il calcolo della pericolosità sismica da dati di sito (freeware). Progetto DPC-INGV S1, http://esse1.mi.ingv.it/d12.html Esteva L.; 1967: Criterios para la construcción de espectros para diseño sísmico. Proceedings of XII Jornadas Sudamericanas de Ingeniería Estructural y III Simposio Panamericano de Estructuras, Caracas, 1967. Published later in Boletín del Instituto de Materiales y Modelos Estructurales, Universidad Central de Venezuela, No. 19. Ordaz M., Aguilar A. and Arboleda J.; 2007: CRISIS2007, Program for computing seismic hazard. Version 5.4, Mexico City: UNAM. SSHAC (Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee); 1997: Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and use of experts. NUREG/CR-6372.

The novel kinetics expression of Cadmium (II) removal using green adsorbent horse dung humic acid (Hd-Ha)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basuki, Rahmat; Santosa, Sri Juari; Rusdiarso, Bambang

2017-03-01

Humic acid from dry horse dung powder has been prepared and this horse dung humic acid (HD-HA) was then applied as a sorbent to adsorb Cadmium(II) from a solution. Characterization of HD-HA was conducted by detection of its functional group, UV-Vis spectra, ash level, and total acidity. Result of the work showed that HD-HA had similar character compared with peat soil humic acid (PS-HA) and previous researchers. The adsorption study of this work was investigated by batch experiment in pH 5. The thermodynamics parameters in this work were determined by the Langmuir isotherm model for monolayer sorption and Freundlich isotherm model multilayer sorption. Monolayer sorption capacity (b) for HD-HA was 1.329 × 10-3 mol g-1, equilibrium constant (K) was 5.651 (mol/L)-1, and multilayer sorption capacity was 2.646 × 10-2 mol g-1. The kinetics parameters investigated in this work were determined by the novel kinetics expression resulted from the mathematical derivation the availability of binding sites of sorbent. Adsorption rate constant (ka) from this novel expression was 43.178 min-1 (mol/L)-1 and desorption rate constant (kd) was 1.250 × 10-2 min-1. Application of the kinetics model on sorption Cd(II) onto HD-HA showed the nearly all of models gave a good linearity. However, only this proposed kinetics expression has good relation with Langmuir model. The novel kinetics expression proposed in this paper seems to be more realistic and reasonable and close to the experimental real condition because the value of ka/kd (3452 (mol/L)-1) was fairly close with K from Langmuir isotherm model (5651 (mol/L)-1). Comparison of this novel kinetics expression with well-known Lagergren pseudo-first order kinetics and Ho pseudo-second order kinetics was also critically discussed in this paper.

Observations Regarding Use of Advanced CFD Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, and Design Codes in MDO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Perry A.; Hou, Gene J. W.; Taylor, Arthur C., III

1996-01-01

Observations regarding the use of advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis, sensitivity analysis (SA), and design codes in gradient-based multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) reflect our perception of the interactions required of CFD and our experience in recent aerodynamic design optimization studies using CFD. Sample results from these latter studies are summarized for conventional optimization (analysis - SA codes) and simultaneous analysis and design optimization (design code) using both Euler and Navier-Stokes flow approximations. The amount of computational resources required for aerodynamic design using CFD via analysis - SA codes is greater than that required for design codes. Thus, an MDO formulation that utilizes the more efficient design codes where possible is desired. However, in the aerovehicle MDO problem, the various disciplines that are involved have different design points in the flight envelope; therefore, CFD analysis - SA codes are required at the aerodynamic 'off design' points. The suggested MDO formulation is a hybrid multilevel optimization procedure that consists of both multipoint CFD analysis - SA codes and multipoint CFD design codes that perform suboptimizations.

Precision Attitude Determination System (PADS) design and analysis. Two-axis gimbal star tracker

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

Development of the Precision Attitude Determination System (PADS) focused chiefly on the two-axis gimballed star tracker and electronics design improved from that of Precision Pointing Control System (PPCS), and application of the improved tracker for PADS at geosynchronous altitude. System design, system analysis, software design, and hardware design activities are reported. The system design encompasses the PADS configuration, system performance characteristics, component design summaries, and interface considerations. The PADS design and performance analysis includes error analysis, performance analysis via attitude determination simulation, and star tracker servo design analysis. The design of the star tracker and electronics are discussed. Sensor electronics schematics are included. A detailed characterization of the application software algorithms and computer requirements is provided.

Designing a ticket to ride with the Cognitive Work Analysis Design Toolkit.

PubMed

Read, Gemma J M; Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Jenkins, Daniel P

2015-01-01

Cognitive work analysis has been applied in the design of numerous sociotechnical systems. The process used to translate analysis outputs into design concepts, however, is not always clear. Moreover, structured processes for translating the outputs of ergonomics methods into concrete designs are lacking. This paper introduces the Cognitive Work Analysis Design Toolkit (CWA-DT), a design approach which has been developed specifically to provide a structured means of incorporating cognitive work analysis outputs in design using design principles and values derived from sociotechnical systems theory. This paper outlines the CWA-DT and describes its application in a public transport ticketing design case study. Qualitative and quantitative evaluations of the process provide promising early evidence that the toolkit fulfils the evaluation criteria identified for its success, with opportunities for improvement also highlighted. The Cognitive Work Analysis Design Toolkit has been developed to provide ergonomics practitioners with a structured approach for translating the outputs of cognitive work analysis into design solutions. This paper demonstrates an application of the toolkit and provides evaluation findings.

A Comparison of the Effectiveness of Two Design Methodologies in a Secondary School Setting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cannizzaro, Brenton; Boughton, Doug

1998-01-01

Examines the effectiveness of the analysis-synthesis and generator-conjuncture-analysis models of design education. Concludes that the generator-conjecture-analysis design method produced student design product of a slightly higher standard than the analysis-synthesis design method. Discusses the findings in more detail and considers implications.…

Shape design sensitivity analysis and optimization of three dimensional elastic solids using geometric modeling and automatic regridding. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yao, Tse-Min; Choi, Kyung K.

1987-01-01

An automatic regridding method and a three dimensional shape design parameterization technique were constructed and integrated into a unified theory of shape design sensitivity analysis. An algorithm was developed for general shape design sensitivity analysis of three dimensional eleastic solids. Numerical implementation of this shape design sensitivity analysis method was carried out using the finite element code ANSYS. The unified theory of shape design sensitivity analysis uses the material derivative of continuum mechanics with a design velocity field that represents shape change effects over the structural design. Automatic regridding methods were developed by generating a domain velocity field with boundary displacement method. Shape design parameterization for three dimensional surface design problems was illustrated using a Bezier surface with boundary perturbations that depend linearly on the perturbation of design parameters. A linearization method of optimization, LINRM, was used to obtain optimum shapes. Three examples from different engineering disciplines were investigated to demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of this shape design sensitivity analysis method.

Integration of rocket turbine design and analysis through computer graphics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, Wayne; Boynton, Jim

1988-01-01

An interactive approach with engineering computer graphics is used to integrate the design and analysis processes of a rocket engine turbine into a progressive and iterative design procedure. The processes are interconnected through pre- and postprocessors. The graphics are used to generate the blade profiles, their stacking, finite element generation, and analysis presentation through color graphics. Steps of the design process discussed include pitch-line design, axisymmetric hub-to-tip meridional design, and quasi-three-dimensional analysis. The viscous two- and three-dimensional analysis codes are executed after acceptable designs are achieved and estimates of initial losses are confirmed.

Thermal Design, Analysis, and Testing of the Quench Module Insert Bread Board

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breeding, Shawn; Khodabandeh, Julia

2002-01-01

Contents include the following: Quench Module Insert (QMI) science requirements. QMI interfaces. QMI design layout. QMI thermal analysis and design methodology. QMI bread board testing and instrumentation approach. QMI thermal probe design parameters. Design features for gradient measurement. Design features for heated zone measurements. Thermal gradient analysis results. Heated zone analysis results. Bread board thermal probe layout. QMI bread board correlation and performance. Summary and conclusions.

Computer-Aided Design Of Turbine Blades And Vanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, Wayne Q.

1988-01-01

Quasi-three-dimensional method for determining aerothermodynamic configuration of turbine uses computer-interactive analysis and design and computer-interactive graphics. Design procedure executed rapidly so designer easily repeats it to arrive at best performance, size, structural integrity, and engine life. Sequence of events in aerothermodynamic analysis and design starts with engine-balance equations and ends with boundary-layer analysis and viscous-flow calculations. Analysis-and-design procedure interactive and iterative throughout.

Applications of Computer Graphics in Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Various applications of interactive computer graphics to the following areas of science and engineering were described: design and analysis of structures, configuration geometry, animation, flutter analysis, design and manufacturing, aircraft design and integration, wind tunnel data analysis, architecture and construction, flight simulation, hydrodynamics, curve and surface fitting, gas turbine engine design, analysis, and manufacturing, packaging of printed circuit boards, spacecraft design.

Early Design Choices: Capture, Model, Integrate, Analyze, Simulate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.

2004-01-01

I. Designs are constructed incrementally to meet requirements and solve problems: a) Requirements types: objectives, scenarios, constraints, ilities. etc. b) Problem/issue types: risk/safety, cost/difficulty, interaction, conflict, etc. II. Capture requirements, problems and solutions: a) Collect design and analysis products and make them accessible for integration and analysis; b) Link changes in design requirements, problems and solutions; and c) Harvest design data for design models and choice structures. III. System designs are constructed by multiple groups designing interacting subsystems a) Diverse problems, choice criteria, analysis methods and point solutions. IV. Support integration and global analysis of repercussions: a) System implications of point solutions; b) Broad analysis of interactions beyond totals of mass, cost, etc.

Utilization of Lesson Analysis as Teacher Self Reflection to Improve the Lesson Design on Chemical Equation Topic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edyani, E. A.; Supriatna, A.; Kurnia; Komalasari, L.

2017-02-01

The research is aimed to investigate how lesson analysis as teacher’s self-reflection changes the teacher’s lesson design on chemical equation topic. Lesson Analysis has been used as part of teacher training programs to improve teacher’s ability in analyzing their own lesson. The method used in this research is a qualitative method. The research starts from build lesson design, implementation lesson design to senior high school student, utilize lesson analysis to get information about the lesson, and revise lesson design. The revised lesson design from the first implementation applied to the second implementation, resulting in better design. This research use lesson analysis Hendayana&Hidayat framework. Video tapped and transcript are employed on each lesson. After first implementation, lesson analysis result shows that teacher-centered still dominating the learning because students are less active in discussion, so the part of lesson design must be revised. After second implementation, lesson analysis result shows that the learning already student-centered. Students are very active in discussion. But some part of learning design still must be revised. In general, lesson analysis was effective for teacher to reflect the lessons. Teacher can utilize lesson analysis any time to improve the next lesson design.

Shape design sensitivity analysis and optimal design of structural systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Kyung K.

1987-01-01

The material derivative concept of continuum mechanics and an adjoint variable method of design sensitivity analysis are used to relate variations in structural shape to measures of structural performance. A domain method of shape design sensitivity analysis is used to best utilize the basic character of the finite element method that gives accurate information not on the boundary but in the domain. Implementation of shape design sensitivty analysis using finite element computer codes is discussed. Recent numerical results are used to demonstrate the accuracy obtainable using the method. Result of design sensitivity analysis is used to carry out design optimization of a built-up structure.

Advanced Usage of Vehicle Sketch Pad for CFD-Based Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ordaz, Irian; Li, Wu

2013-01-01

Conceptual design is the most fluid phase of aircraft design. It is important to be able to perform large scale design space exploration of candidate concepts that can achieve the design intent to avoid more costly configuration changes in later stages of design. This also means that conceptual design is highly dependent on the disciplinary analysis tools to capture the underlying physics accurately. The required level of analysis fidelity can vary greatly depending on the application. Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP) allows the designer to easily construct aircraft concepts and make changes as the design matures. More recent development efforts have enabled VSP to bridge the gap to high-fidelity analysis disciplines such as computational fluid dynamics and structural modeling for finite element analysis. This paper focuses on the current state-of-the-art geometry modeling for the automated process of analysis and design of low-boom supersonic concepts using VSP and several capability-enhancing design tools.

Methodology for object-oriented real-time systems analysis and design: Software engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeffler, James D.

1991-01-01

Successful application of software engineering methodologies requires an integrated analysis and design life-cycle in which the various phases flow smoothly 'seamlessly' from analysis through design to implementation. Furthermore, different analysis methodologies often lead to different structuring of the system so that the transition from analysis to design may be awkward depending on the design methodology to be used. This is especially important when object-oriented programming is to be used for implementation when the original specification and perhaps high-level design is non-object oriented. Two approaches to real-time systems analysis which can lead to an object-oriented design are contrasted: (1) modeling the system using structured analysis with real-time extensions which emphasizes data and control flows followed by the abstraction of objects where the operations or methods of the objects correspond to processes in the data flow diagrams and then design in terms of these objects; and (2) modeling the system from the beginning as a set of naturally occurring concurrent entities (objects) each having its own time-behavior defined by a set of states and state-transition rules and seamlessly transforming the analysis models into high-level design models. A new concept of a 'real-time systems-analysis object' is introduced and becomes the basic building block of a series of seamlessly-connected models which progress from the object-oriented real-time systems analysis and design system analysis logical models through the physical architectural models and the high-level design stages. The methodology is appropriate to the overall specification including hardware and software modules. In software modules, the systems analysis objects are transformed into software objects.

An expert system for integrated structural analysis and design optimization for aerospace structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The results of a research study on the development of an expert system for integrated structural analysis and design optimization is presented. An Object Representation Language (ORL) was developed first in conjunction with a rule-based system. This ORL/AI shell was then used to develop expert systems to provide assistance with a variety of structural analysis and design optimization tasks, in conjunction with procedural modules for finite element structural analysis and design optimization. The main goal of the research study was to provide expertise, judgment, and reasoning capabilities in the aerospace structural design process. This will allow engineers performing structural analysis and design, even without extensive experience in the field, to develop error-free, efficient and reliable structural designs very rapidly and cost-effectively. This would not only improve the productivity of design engineers and analysts, but also significantly reduce time to completion of structural design. An extensive literature survey in the field of structural analysis, design optimization, artificial intelligence, and database management systems and their application to the structural design process was first performed. A feasibility study was then performed, and the architecture and the conceptual design for the integrated 'intelligent' structural analysis and design optimization software was then developed. An Object Representation Language (ORL), in conjunction with a rule-based system, was then developed using C++. Such an approach would improve the expressiveness for knowledge representation (especially for structural analysis and design applications), provide ability to build very large and practical expert systems, and provide an efficient way for storing knowledge. Functional specifications for the expert systems were then developed. The ORL/AI shell was then used to develop a variety of modules of expert systems for a variety of modeling, finite element analysis, and design optimization tasks in the integrated aerospace structural design process. These expert systems were developed to work in conjunction with procedural finite element structural analysis and design optimization modules (developed in-house at SAT, Inc.). The complete software, AutoDesign, so developed, can be used for integrated 'intelligent' structural analysis and design optimization. The software was beta-tested at a variety of companies, used by a range of engineers with different levels of background and expertise. Based on the feedback obtained by such users, conclusions were developed and are provided.

An expert system for integrated structural analysis and design optimization for aerospace structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1992-04-01

The results of a research study on the development of an expert system for integrated structural analysis and design optimization is presented. An Object Representation Language (ORL) was developed first in conjunction with a rule-based system. This ORL/AI shell was then used to develop expert systems to provide assistance with a variety of structural analysis and design optimization tasks, in conjunction with procedural modules for finite element structural analysis and design optimization. The main goal of the research study was to provide expertise, judgment, and reasoning capabilities in the aerospace structural design process. This will allow engineers performing structural analysis and design, even without extensive experience in the field, to develop error-free, efficient and reliable structural designs very rapidly and cost-effectively. This would not only improve the productivity of design engineers and analysts, but also significantly reduce time to completion of structural design. An extensive literature survey in the field of structural analysis, design optimization, artificial intelligence, and database management systems and their application to the structural design process was first performed. A feasibility study was then performed, and the architecture and the conceptual design for the integrated 'intelligent' structural analysis and design optimization software was then developed. An Object Representation Language (ORL), in conjunction with a rule-based system, was then developed using C++. Such an approach would improve the expressiveness for knowledge representation (especially for structural analysis and design applications), provide ability to build very large and practical expert systems, and provide an efficient way for storing knowledge. Functional specifications for the expert systems were then developed. The ORL/AI shell was then used to develop a variety of modules of expert systems for a variety of modeling, finite element analysis, and design optimization tasks in the integrated aerospace structural design process. These expert systems were developed to work in conjunction with procedural finite element structural analysis and design optimization modules (developed in-house at SAT, Inc.). The complete software, AutoDesign, so developed, can be used for integrated 'intelligent' structural analysis and design optimization. The software was beta-tested at a variety of companies, used by a range of engineers with different levels of background and expertise. Based on the feedback obtained by such users, conclusions were developed and are provided.

Rapid Modeling and Analysis Tools: Evolution, Status, Needs and Directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Stone, Thomas J.; Ransom, Jonathan B. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Advanced aerospace systems are becoming increasingly more complex, and customers are demanding lower cost, higher performance, and high reliability. Increased demands are placed on the design engineers to collaborate and integrate design needs and objectives early in the design process to minimize risks that may occur later in the design development stage. High performance systems require better understanding of system sensitivities much earlier in the design process to meet these goals. The knowledge, skills, intuition, and experience of an individual design engineer will need to be extended significantly for the next generation of aerospace system designs. Then a collaborative effort involving the designer, rapid and reliable analysis tools and virtual experts will result in advanced aerospace systems that are safe, reliable, and efficient. This paper discusses the evolution, status, needs and directions for rapid modeling and analysis tools for structural analysis. First, the evolution of computerized design and analysis tools is briefly described. Next, the status of representative design and analysis tools is described along with a brief statement on their functionality. Then technology advancements to achieve rapid modeling and analysis are identified. Finally, potential future directions including possible prototype configurations are proposed.

Design sensitivity analysis and optimization tool (DSO) for sizing design applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Kuang-Hua; Choi, Kyung K.; Perng, Jyh-Hwa

1992-01-01

The DSO tool, a structural design software system that provides the designer with a graphics-based menu-driven design environment to perform easy design optimization for general applications, is presented. Three design stages, preprocessing, design sensitivity analysis, and postprocessing, are implemented in the DSO to allow the designer to carry out the design process systematically. A framework, including data base, user interface, foundation class, and remote module, has been designed and implemented to facilitate software development for the DSO. A number of dedicated commercial software/packages have been integrated in the DSO to support the design procedures. Instead of parameterizing an FEM, design parameters are defined on a geometric model associated with physical quantities, and the continuum design sensitivity analysis theory is implemented to compute design sensitivity coefficients using postprocessing data from the analysis codes. A tracked vehicle road wheel is given as a sizing design application to demonstrate the DSO's easy and convenient design optimization process.

Prospective testing of neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for the Italian territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Vaccari, Franco; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2013-04-01

A reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected seismic ground shaking, eventually including the related time information, is essential in order to develop effective mitigation strategies and increase earthquake preparedness. Moreover, any effective tool for SHA must demonstrate its capability in anticipating the ground shaking related with large earthquake occurrences, a result that can be attained only through rigorous verification and validation process. So far, the major problems in classical probabilistic methods for seismic hazard assessment, PSHA, consisted in the adequate description of the earthquake recurrence, particularly for the largest and sporadic events, and of the attenuation models, which may be unable to account for the complexity of the medium and of the seismic sources and are often weekly constrained by the available observations. Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of attenuation relations. Accordingly, a scenario-based neo-deterministic approach, NDSHA, to seismic hazard assessment has been proposed, which allows considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking, including reliable estimates of ground displacement readily applicable to seismic isolation techniques. Based on NDSHA, an operational integrated procedure for seismic hazard assessment has been developed, that allows for the definition of time dependent scenarios of ground shaking, through the routine updating of formally defined earthquake predictions. The integrated NDSHA procedure for seismic input definition, which is currently applied to the Italian territory, combines different pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes, with algorithms for the realistic modeling of ground motion. Accordingly, a set of deterministic scenarios of ground motion at bedrock, which refers to the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted area, can be defined by means of full waveform modeling, both at regional and local scale. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are regularly updated every two months since 2006. The routine application of the time-dependent NDSHA approach provides information that can be useful in assigning priorities for timely mitigation actions and, at the same time, allows for a rigorous prospective testing and validation of the proposed methodology. As an example, for sites where ground shaking values greater than 0.2 g are estimated at bedrock, further investigations can be performed taking into account the local soil conditions, to assess the performances of relevant structures, such as historical and strategic buildings. The issues related with prospective testing and validation of the time-dependent NDSHA scenarios will be discussed, illustrating the results obtained for the recent strong earthquakes in Italy, including the May 20, 2012 Emilia earthquake.

Design/Analysis of the JWST ISIM Bonded Joints for Survivability at Cryogenic Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartoszyk, Andrew; Johnston, John; Kaprielian, Charles; Kuhn, Jonathan; Kunt, Cengiz; Rodini, Benjamin; Young, Daniel

2005-01-01

Contents include the following: JWST/ISIM introduction. Design and analysis challenges for ISIM bonded joints. JWST/ISIM joint designs. Bonded joint analysis. Finite element modeling. Failure criteria and margin calculation. Analysis/test correlation procedure. Example of test data and analysis.

Design Review and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Design Review and Analysis Design Review and Analysis NREL is leveraging its 35 years of experience devices and components. As part of this effort, NREL researchers provide industry partners with design reviews and analyses. In addition to design reviews, NREL offers technical assistance to solve specific

Design sensitivity analysis using EAL. Part 1: Conventional design parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dopker, B.; Choi, Kyung K.; Lee, J.

1986-01-01

A numerical implementation of design sensitivity analysis of builtup structures is presented, using the versatility and convenience of an existing finite element structural analysis code and its database management system. The finite element code used in the implemenatation presented is the Engineering Analysis Language (EAL), which is based on a hybrid method of analysis. It was shown that design sensitivity computations can be carried out using the database management system of EAL, without writing a separate program and a separate database. Conventional (sizing) design parameters such as cross-sectional area of beams or thickness of plates and plane elastic solid components are considered. Compliance, displacement, and stress functionals are considered as performance criteria. The method presented is being extended to implement shape design sensitivity analysis using a domain method and a design component method.

Planar Inlet Design and Analysis Process (PINDAP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slater, John W.; Gruber, Christopher R.

2005-01-01

The Planar Inlet Design and Analysis Process (PINDAP) is a collection of software tools that allow the efficient aerodynamic design and analysis of planar (two-dimensional and axisymmetric) inlets. The aerodynamic analysis is performed using the Wind-US computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program. A major element in PINDAP is a Fortran 90 code named PINDAP that can establish the parametric design of the inlet and efficiently model the geometry and generate the grid for CFD analysis with design changes to those parameters. The use of PINDAP is demonstrated for subsonic, supersonic, and hypersonic inlets.

Integrating computer programs for engineering analysis and design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilhite, A. W.; Crisp, V. K.; Johnson, S. C.

1983-01-01

The design of a third-generation system for integrating computer programs for engineering and design has been developed for the Aerospace Vehicle Interactive Design (AVID) system. This system consists of an engineering data management system, program interface software, a user interface, and a geometry system. A relational information system (ARIS) was developed specifically for the computer-aided engineering system. It is used for a repository of design data that are communicated between analysis programs, for a dictionary that describes these design data, for a directory that describes the analysis programs, and for other system functions. A method is described for interfacing independent analysis programs into a loosely-coupled design system. This method emphasizes an interactive extension of analysis techniques and manipulation of design data. Also, integrity mechanisms exist to maintain database correctness for multidisciplinary design tasks by an individual or a team of specialists. Finally, a prototype user interface program has been developed to aid in system utilization.

Cost-effectiveness of integrated analysis/design systems /IPAD/ An executive summary. II. [for aerospace vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. E., Jr.; Hansen, S. D.; Redhed, D. D.; Southall, J. W.; Kawaguchi, A. S.

1974-01-01

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of integrated analysis/design systems with particular attention to Integrated Program for Aerospace-Vehicle Design (IPAD) project. An analysis of all the ingredients of IPAD indicates the feasibility of a significant cost and flowtime reduction in the product design process involved. It is also concluded that an IPAD-supported design process will provide a framework for configuration control, whereby the engineering costs for design, analysis and testing can be controlled during the air vehicle development cycle.

Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool Development Using a Genetic Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pak, Chan-gi; Li, Wesley

2009-01-01

Multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization using a genetic algorithm is being developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dryden Flight Research Center (Edwards, California) to automate analysis and design process by leveraging existing tools to enable true multidisciplinary optimization in the preliminary design stage of subsonic, transonic, supersonic, and hypersonic aircraft. This is a promising technology, but faces many challenges in large-scale, real-world application. This report describes current approaches, recent results, and challenges for multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization as demonstrated by experience with the Ikhana fire pod design.!

Design sensitivity analysis with Applicon IFAD using the adjoint variable method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, Marjorie C.; Choi, Kyung K.

1984-01-01

A numerical method is presented to implement structural design sensitivity analysis using the versatility and convenience of existing finite element structural analysis program and the theoretical foundation in structural design sensitivity analysis. Conventional design variables, such as thickness and cross-sectional areas, are considered. Structural performance functionals considered include compliance, displacement, and stress. It is shown that calculations can be carried out outside existing finite element codes, using postprocessing data only. That is, design sensitivity analysis software does not have to be imbedded in an existing finite element code. The finite element structural analysis program used in the implementation presented is IFAD. Feasibility of the method is shown through analysis of several problems, including built-up structures. Accurate design sensitivity results are obtained without the uncertainty of numerical accuracy associated with selection of a finite difference perturbation.

Initial Multidisciplinary Design and Analysis Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ozoroski, L. P.; Geiselhart, K. A.; Padula, S. L.; Li, W.; Olson, E. D.; Campbell, R. L.; Shields, E. W.; Berton, J. J.; Gray, J. S.; Jones, S. M.;

Design and Analysis of a Subcritical Airfoil for High Altitude, Long Endurance Missions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

Airfoil Design and Analysis Method ......... .... 61 Appendix D: Boundary Layer Analysis Method ............. ... 81 Appendix E: Detailed Results ofr...attack. Computer codes designed by Richard Eppler were used for this study. The airfoil was anlayzed by using a viscous effects analysis program...inverse program designed by Eppler (Ref 5) was used in this study to accomplish this part. The second step involved the analysis of the airfoil under

User-Centered Iterative Design of a Collaborative Virtual Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-03-01

cognitive task analysis methods to study land navigators. This study was intended to validate the use of user-centered design methodologies for the design of...have explored the cognitive aspects of collaborative human way finding and design for collaborative virtual environments. Further investigation of design paradigms should include cognitive task analysis and behavioral task analysis.

Design principles for data- and change-oriented organisational analysis in workplace health promotion.

PubMed

Inauen, A; Jenny, G J; Bauer, G F

2012-06-01

This article focuses on organizational analysis in workplace health promotion (WHP) projects. It shows how this analysis can be designed such that it provides rational data relevant to the further context-specific and goal-oriented planning of WHP and equally supports individual and organizational change processes implied by WHP. Design principles for organizational analysis were developed on the basis of a narrative review of the guiding principles of WHP interventions and organizational change as well as the scientific principles of data collection. Further, the practical experience of WHP consultants who routinely conduct organizational analysis was considered. This resulted in a framework with data-oriented and change-oriented design principles, addressing the following elements of organizational analysis in WHP: planning the overall procedure, data content, data-collection methods and information processing. Overall, the data-oriented design principles aim to produce valid, reliable and representative data, whereas the change-oriented design principles aim to promote motivation, coherence and a capacity for self-analysis. We expect that the simultaneous consideration of data- and change-oriented design principles for organizational analysis will strongly support the WHP process. We finally illustrate the applicability of the design principles to health promotion within a WHP case study.

Multidisciplinary analysis and design of printed wiring boards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, Robert E.; Hughes, Joseph L.; Scott, Waymond R., Jr.; Umeagukwu, Charles; Yeh, Chao-Pin

1991-04-01

Modern printed wiring board design depends on electronic prototyping using computer-based simulation and design tools. Existing electrical computer-aided design (ECAD) tools emphasize circuit connectivity with only rudimentary analysis capabilities. This paper describes a prototype integrated PWB design environment denoted Thermal Structural Electromagnetic Testability (TSET) being developed at Georgia Tech in collaboration with companies in the electronics industry. TSET provides design guidance based on enhanced electrical and mechanical CAD capabilities including electromagnetic modeling testability analysis thermal management and solid mechanics analysis. TSET development is based on a strong analytical and theoretical science base and incorporates an integrated information framework and a common database design based on a systematic structured methodology.

Locomotive cab design development. Volume 1 : analysis of locomotive cab environment & development of cab design alternatives

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-10-01

This report presents an analysis of the line haul freight : engineer's working and living environment, the resultant locomotive : cab design and design alternatives. The analysis is based on a : delineation of functional requirements found in current...

Design and Analysis Tools for Supersonic Inlets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slater, John W.; Folk, Thomas C.

2009-01-01

Computational tools are being developed for the design and analysis of supersonic inlets. The objective is to update existing tools and provide design and low-order aerodynamic analysis capability for advanced inlet concepts. The Inlet Tools effort includes aspects of creating an electronic database of inlet design information, a document describing inlet design and analysis methods, a geometry model for describing the shape of inlets, and computer tools that implement the geometry model and methods. The geometry model has a set of basic inlet shapes that include pitot, two-dimensional, axisymmetric, and stream-traced inlet shapes. The inlet model divides the inlet flow field into parts that facilitate the design and analysis methods. The inlet geometry model constructs the inlet surfaces through the generation and transformation of planar entities based on key inlet design factors. Future efforts will focus on developing the inlet geometry model, the inlet design and analysis methods, a Fortran 95 code to implement the model and methods. Other computational platforms, such as Java, will also be explored.

Analysis of a Preloaded Bolted Joint in a Ceramic Composite Combustor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hissam, D. Andy; Bower, Mark V.

2003-01-01

This paper presents the detailed analysis of a preloaded bolted joint incorporating ceramic materials. The objective of this analysis is to determine the suitability of a joint design for a ceramic combustor. The analysis addresses critical factors in bolted joint design including preload, preload uncertainty, and load factor. The relationship between key joint variables is also investigated. The analysis is based on four key design criteria, each addressing an anticipated failure mode. The criteria are defined in terms of margin of safety, which must be greater than zero for the design criteria to be satisfied. Since the proposed joint has positive margins of safety, the design criteria are satisfied. Therefore, the joint design is acceptable.

DESIGN ANALYSIS FOR THE NAVAL SNF WASTE PACKAGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

T.L. Mitchell

2000-05-31

The purpose of this analysis is to demonstrate the design of the naval spent nuclear fuel (SNF) waste package (WP) using the Waste Package Department's (WPD) design methodologies and processes described in the ''Waste Package Design Methodology Report'' (CRWMS M&O [Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor] 2000b). The calculations that support the design of the naval SNF WP will be discussed; however, only a sub-set of such analyses will be presented and shall be limited to those identified in the ''Waste Package Design Sensitivity Report'' (CRWMS M&O 2000c). The objective of this analysis is to describe themore » naval SNF WP design method and to show that the design of the naval SNF WP complies with the ''Naval Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposal Container System Description Document'' (CRWMS M&O 1999a) and Interface Control Document (ICD) criteria for Site Recommendation. Additional criteria for the design of the naval SNF WP have been outlined in Section 6.2 of the ''Waste Package Design Sensitivity Report'' (CRWMS M&O 2000c). The scope of this analysis is restricted to the design of the naval long WP containing one naval long SNF canister. This WP is representative of the WPs that will contain both naval short SNF and naval long SNF canisters. The following items are included in the scope of this analysis: (1) Providing a general description of the applicable design criteria; (2) Describing the design methodology to be used; (3) Presenting the design of the naval SNF waste package; and (4) Showing compliance with all applicable design criteria. The intended use of this analysis is to support Site Recommendation reports and assist in the development of WPD drawings. Activities described in this analysis were conducted in accordance with the technical product development plan (TPDP) ''Design Analysis for the Naval SNF Waste Package (CRWMS M&O 2000a).« less

Design and Analysis of Turbines for Space Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffin, Lisa W.; Dorney, Daniel J.; Huber, Frank W.

2003-01-01

In order to mitigate the risk of rocket propulsion development, efficient, accurate, detailed fluid dynamics analysis of the turbomachinery is necessary. This analysis is used for component development, design parametrics, performance prediction, and environment definition. To support this requirement, a task was developed at NASAh4arshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to improve turbine aerodynamic performance through the application of advanced design and analysis tools. There are four major objectives of this task: 1) to develop, enhance, and integrate advanced turbine aerodynamic design and analysis tools; 2) to develop the methodology for application of the analytical techniques; 3) to demonstrate the benefits of the advanced turbine design procedure through its application to a relevant turbine design point; and 4) to verify the optimized design and analysis with testing. The turbine chosen on which to demonstrate the procedure was a supersonic design suitable for a reusable launch vehicle (RLV). The hot gas path and blading were redesigned to obtain an increased efficiency. The redesign of the turbine was conducted with a consideration of system requirements, realizing that a highly efficient turbine that, for example, significantly increases engine weight, is of limited benefit. Both preliminary and detailed designs were considered. To generate an improved design, one-dimensional (1D) design and analysis tools, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), response surface methodology (RSM), and neural nets (NN) were used.

Interactive design and analysis of future large spacecraft concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garrett, L. B.

1981-01-01

An interactive computer aided design program used to perform systems level design and analysis of large spacecraft concepts is presented. Emphasis is on rapid design, analysis of integrated spacecraft, and automatic spacecraft modeling for lattice structures. Capabilities and performance of multidiscipline applications modules, the executive and data management software, and graphics display features are reviewed. A single user at an interactive terminal create, design, analyze, and conduct parametric studies of Earth orbiting spacecraft with relative ease. Data generated in the design, analysis, and performance evaluation of an Earth-orbiting large diameter antenna satellite are used to illustrate current capabilities. Computer run time statistics for the individual modules quantify the speed at which modeling, analysis, and design evaluation of integrated spacecraft concepts is accomplished in a user interactive computing environment.

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Methodology for Employing Architecture In System Analysis: Developing Simulation Models Using Systems Modeling Language Products to Link Architecture and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

characteristics, experimental design techniques, and analysis methodologies that distinguish each phase of the MBSE MEASA. To ensure consistency... methodology . Experimental design selection, simulation analysis, and trade space analysis support the final two stages. Figure 27 segments the MBSE MEASA...rounding has the potential to increase the correlation between columns of the experimental design matrix. The design methodology presented in Vieira

Innovating Method of Existing Mechanical Product Based on TRIZ Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Cunyou; Shi, Dongyan; Wu, Han

Main way of product development is adaptive design and variant design based on existing product. In this paper, conceptual design frame and its flow model of innovating products is put forward through combining the methods of conceptual design and TRIZ theory. Process system model of innovating design that includes requirement analysis, total function analysis and decomposing, engineering problem analysis, finding solution of engineering problem and primarily design is constructed and this establishes the base for innovating design of existing product.

Error Propagation Analysis in the SAE Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) and the EDICT Tool Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaValley, Brian W.; Little, Phillip D.; Walter, Chris J.

2011-01-01

This report documents the capabilities of the EDICT tools for error modeling and error propagation analysis when operating with models defined in the Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL). We discuss our experience using the EDICT error analysis capabilities on a model of the Scalable Processor-Independent Design for Enhanced Reliability (SPIDER) architecture that uses the Reliable Optical Bus (ROBUS). Based on these experiences we draw some initial conclusions about model based design techniques for error modeling and analysis of highly reliable computing architectures.

Shape design sensitivity analysis using domain information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seong, Hwal-Gyeong; Choi, Kyung K.

1985-01-01

A numerical method for obtaining accurate shape design sensitivity information for built-up structures is developed and demonstrated through analysis of examples. The basic character of the finite element method, which gives more accurate domain information than boundary information, is utilized for shape design sensitivity improvement. A domain approach for shape design sensitivity analysis of built-up structures is derived using the material derivative idea of structural mechanics and the adjoint variable method of design sensitivity analysis. Velocity elements and B-spline curves are introduced to alleviate difficulties in generating domain velocity fields. The regularity requirements of the design velocity field are studied.

Modeling and Analysis of Space Based Transceivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reinhart, Richard C.; Liebetreu, John; Moore, Michael S.; Price, Jeremy C.; Abbott, Ben

2005-01-01

This paper presents the tool chain, methodology, and initial results of a study to provide a thorough, objective, and quantitative analysis of the design alternatives for space Software Defined Radio (SDR) transceivers. The approach taken was to develop a set of models and tools for describing communications requirements, the algorithm resource requirements, the available hardware, and the alternative software architectures, and generate analysis data necessary to compare alternative designs. The Space Transceiver Analysis Tool (STAT) was developed to help users identify and select representative designs, calculate the analysis data, and perform a comparative analysis of the representative designs. The tool allows the design space to be searched quickly while permitting incremental refinement in regions of higher payoff.

Modeling and Analysis of Space Based Transceivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Michael S.; Price, Jeremy C.; Abbott, Ben; Liebetreu, John; Reinhart, Richard C.; Kacpura, Thomas J.

2007-01-01

This paper presents the tool chain, methodology, and initial results of a study to provide a thorough, objective, and quantitative analysis of the design alternatives for space Software Defined Radio (SDR) transceivers. The approach taken was to develop a set of models and tools for describing communications requirements, the algorithm resource requirements, the available hardware, and the alternative software architectures, and generate analysis data necessary to compare alternative designs. The Space Transceiver Analysis Tool (STAT) was developed to help users identify and select representative designs, calculate the analysis data, and perform a comparative analysis of the representative designs. The tool allows the design space to be searched quickly while permitting incremental refinement in regions of higher payoff.

Concentrator enhanced solar arrays design study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lott, D. R.

1978-01-01

The analysis and preliminary design of a 25 kW concentrator enhanced lightweight flexible solar array are presented. The study was organized into five major tasks: (1) assessment and specification of design requirements; (2) mechanical design; (3) electric design; (4) concentrator design; and (5) cost projection. The tasks were conducted in an iterative manner so as to best derive a baseline design selection. The objectives of the study are discussed and comparative configurations and mass data on the SEP (Solar Electric Propulsion) array design, concentrator design options and configuration/mass data on the selected concentrator enhanced solar array baseline design are presented. Design requirements supporting design analysis and detailed baseline design data are discussed. The results of the cost projection analysis and new technology are also discussed.

Meta-Analysis and the Solomon Four-Group Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sawilowsky, Shlomo; And Others

1994-01-01

A Monte Carlo study considers the use of meta analysis with the Solomon four-group design. Experiment-wise Type I error properties and the relative power properties of Stouffer's Z in the Solomon four-group design are explored. Obstacles to conducting meta analysis in the Solomon design are discussed. (SLD)

LIFE CYCLE DESIGN OF AIR INTAKE MANIFOLDS; PHASE I: 2.0 L FORD CONTOUR AIR INTAKE MANIFOLD

EPA Science Inventory

The project team applied the life cycle design methodology to the design analysis of three alternative air intake manifolds: a sand cast aluminum, brazed aluminum tubular, and nylon composite. The design analysis included a life cycle inventory analysis, environmental regulatory...

Hybrid PV/diesel solar power system design using multi-level factor analysis optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drake, Joshua P.

Solar power systems represent a large area of interest across a spectrum of organizations at a global level. It was determined that a clear understanding of current state of the art software and design methods, as well as optimization methods, could be used to improve the design methodology. Solar power design literature was researched for an in depth understanding of solar power system design methods and algorithms. Multiple software packages for the design and optimization of solar power systems were analyzed for a critical understanding of their design workflow. In addition, several methods of optimization were studied, including brute force, Pareto analysis, Monte Carlo, linear and nonlinear programming, and multi-way factor analysis. Factor analysis was selected as the most efficient optimization method for engineering design as it applied to solar power system design. The solar power design algorithms, software work flow analysis, and factor analysis optimization were combined to develop a solar power system design optimization software package called FireDrake. This software was used for the design of multiple solar power systems in conjunction with an energy audit case study performed in seven Tibetan refugee camps located in Mainpat, India. A report of solar system designs for the camps, as well as a proposed schedule for future installations was generated. It was determined that there were several improvements that could be made to the state of the art in modern solar power system design, though the complexity of current applications is significant.

Research on design connotation of hair drier system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yongchuan; Wu, Qiong

2018-04-01

After the analysis and summary of the research on the design of hair drier system, the system design is focused on. Product system design is not only to study its entity, but also is recognized as the part, element and component with a systematic feature to deeply analyze the innovation way of product system design, which is taken as its concept to carry out the association analysis on the component elements of hair driers and the overall analysis and study on the system design process of hair dryers. The product life cycle is taken as the main goal, through system analysis, system synthesis and system optimization, to solve the problems of product design. It is of great practical significance.

Geophysical studies for the identification of basin effects in urban areas in Venezuela

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, M.; Rocabado, V.; Sánchez, J.; Reinoza, C.; Amaris, E.; Cornou, C.

2007-05-01

Urban areas in northern Venezuela are subject to a moderate seismic hazard due to the interactions between the Caribbean and south American plates, which has been evidenced by historical damaging earthquakes as for example the 1812 and the 1967 earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.2 and 6.5, respectively. Strong damages in Caracas during the 1967 earthquake have been asociated to site effects produced by the sediment filled basin. This situation can be observed in most of the big cities in northern Venezuela, which initially developped on plain areas with quaternary basin fills of up to 500 m within mountainous areas, as for example Caracas, Maracay and Barquisimeto. In the mid- 1990ies FUNVISIS started to promote geophysical studies to investigate the shape and the properties of the basin fills in order to contribute to the earthquake disaster reduction. Methods applied for the investigations are gravimetry, microtremor measurements, seismic refraction, among others. In Caracas, a total of 350 m of cuaternary sediments with an average S-wave velocity of about 850 m/s have been derived by seismic investigations. The corresponding predominant periods from microtremor measurements amount up to 2.2 s. Integrating drilling information and 3D gravimetric modeling a detailed picture of the bedrock - sediment interface could be obtained. Results from numerical modelling as well as from experimental transfer function indicate amplifications point to amplifications of a factor of more than 10 related to the deep basin area. In Barquisimeto Metropolitan Area, sediment thickness reaches up to 500 m in the fast growing Cabudare area. Actually, modelling of a recent seismic refraction campaign is in progress, but predominant periods up to 3.0 s in the deepest part of the valley and gravity modelling point to the same order of cuaternary sediments. In other cities, as for example Carora and Mérida, geophysical studies are in progress, first with gravimetric and microtremor measurements which point to sediment with more than 150 m thickness. The subsoil information from geophysical studies will be used to define the distribution of microzones of equal seismic response in order to determine PSHA spectra. Contribution to projects FONACIT 200400738 and FONACIT-ECOS Nord 2004000347.

The GEM Global Active Faults Database: The growth and synthesis of a worldwide database of active structures for PSHA, research, and education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Styron, R. H.; Garcia, J.; Pagani, M.

2017-12-01

A global catalog of active faults is a resource of value to a wide swath of the geoscience, earthquake engineering, and hazards risk communities. Though construction of such a dataset has been attempted now and again through the past few decades, success has been elusive. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation has been working on this problem, as a fundamental step in its goal of making a global seismic hazard model. Progress on the assembly of the database is rapid, with the concatenation of many national—, orogen—, and continental—scale datasets produced by different research groups throughout the years. However, substantial data gaps exist throughout much of the deforming world, requiring new mapping based on existing publications as well as consideration of seismicity, geodesy and remote sensing data. Thus far, new fault datasets have been created for the Caribbean and Central America, North Africa, and northeastern Asia, with Madagascar, Canada and a few other regions in the queue. The second major task, as formidable as the initial data concatenation, is the 'harmonization' of data. This entails the removal or recombination of duplicated structures, reconciliation of contrastinginterpretations in areas of overlap, and the synthesis of many different types of attributes or metadata into a consistent whole. In a project of this scale, the methods used in the database construction are as critical to project success as the data themselves. After some experimentation, we have settled on an iterative methodology that involves rapid accumulation of data followed by successive episodes of data revision, and a computer-scripted data assembly using GIS file formats that is flexible, reproducible, and as able as possible to cope with updates to the constituent datasets. We find that this approach of initially maximizing coverage and then increasing resolution is the most robust to regional data problems and the most amenable to continued updates and refinement. Combined with the public, open-source nature of this project, GEM is producing a resource that can continue to evolve with the changing knowledge and needs of the community.

Towards a robust framework for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for local and regional tsunami in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Christof; Power, William; Fraser, Stuart; Wang, Xiaoming

2013-04-01

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is conceptually closely related to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). The main difference is that PTHA needs to simulate propagation of tsunami waves through the ocean and cannot rely on attenuation relationships, which makes PTHA computationally more expensive. The wave propagation process can be assumed to be linear as long as water depth is much larger than the wave amplitude of the tsunami. Beyond this limit a non-linear scheme has to be employed with significantly higher algorithmic run times. PTHA considering far-field tsunami sources typically uses unit source simulations, and relies on the linearity of the process by later scaling and combining the wave fields of individual simulations to represent the intended earthquake magnitude and rupture area. Probabilistic assessments are typically made for locations offshore but close to the coast. Inundation is calculated only for significantly contributing events (de-aggregation). For local and regional tsunami it has been demonstrated that earthquake rupture complexity has a significant effect on the tsunami amplitude distribution offshore and also on inundation. In this case PTHA has to take variable slip distributions and non-linearity into account. A unit source approach cannot easily be applied. Rupture complexity is seen as an aleatory uncertainty and can be incorporated directly into the rate calculation. We have developed a framework that manages the large number of simulations required for local PTHA. As an initial case study the effect of rupture complexity on tsunami inundation and the statistics of the distribution of wave heights have been investigated for plate-interface earthquakes in the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand. Assessing the probability that water levels will be in excess of a certain threshold requires the calculation of empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF). We compare our results with traditional estimates for tsunami inundation simulations that do not consider rupture complexity. De-aggregation based on moment magnitude alone might not be appropriate, because the hazard posed by any individual event can be underestimated locally if rupture complexity is ignored.

Earthquake Catalogue of the Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godoladze, T.; Gok, R.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.; Gunia, I.; Onur, T.

2016-12-01

The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); and the Alaverdi earthquake of 1742 (Ms˜6.8, Io=9). Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088 (Ms˜6.5, Io=9) and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899 (Ms˜6.3, Io =8-9). Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; Racha earthquake of 1991 (Ms=7.0), is the largest event ever recorded in the region; Barisakho earthquake of 1992 (M=6.5); Spitak earthquake of 1988 (Ms=6.9, 100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of the various national networks (Georgia (˜25 stations), Azerbaijan (˜35 stations), Armenia (˜14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. In order to improve seismic data quality a catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences/NSMC, Ilia State University) in the framework of regional joint project (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, USA) "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Caucasus. The catalogue consists of more then 80,000 events. First arrivals of each earthquake of Mw>=4.0 have been carefully examined. To reduce calculation errors, we corrected arrivals from the seismic records. We improved locations of the events and recalculate Moment magnitudes in order to obtain unified magnitude catalogue of the region. The results will serve as the input for the Seismic hazard assessment for the region

Study of space shuttle orbiter system management computer function. Volume 1: Analysis, baseline design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

A system analysis of the shuttle orbiter baseline system management (SM) computer function is performed. This analysis results in an alternative SM design which is also described. The alternative design exhibits several improvements over the baseline, some of which are increased crew usability, improved flexibility, and improved growth potential. The analysis consists of two parts: an application assessment and an implementation assessment. The former is concerned with the SM user needs and design functional aspects. The latter is concerned with design flexibility, reliability, growth potential, and technical risk. The system analysis is supported by several topical investigations. These include: treatment of false alarms, treatment of off-line items, significant interface parameters, and a design evaluation checklist. An in-depth formulation of techniques, concepts, and guidelines for design of automated performance verification is discussed.

Design and analysis of sustainable computer mouse using design for disassembly methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roni Sahroni, Taufik; Fitri Sukarman, Ahmad; Agung Mahardini, Karunia

2017-12-01

This paper presents the design and analysis of computer mouse using Design for Disassembly methodology. Basically, the existing computer mouse model consist a number of unnecessary part that cause the assembly and disassembly time in production. The objective of this project is to design a new computer mouse based on Design for Disassembly (DFD) methodology. The main methodology of this paper was proposed from sketch generation, concept selection, and concept scoring. Based on the design screening, design concept B was selected for further analysis. New design of computer mouse is proposed using fastening system. Furthermore, three materials of ABS, Polycarbonate, and PE high density were prepared to determine the environmental impact category. Sustainable analysis was conducted using software SolidWorks. As a result, PE High Density gives the lowers amount in the environmental category with great maximum stress value.

Systems design analysis applied to launch vehicle configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, R.; Verderaime, V.

1993-01-01

As emphasis shifts from optimum-performance aerospace systems to least lift-cycle costs, systems designs must seek, adapt, and innovate cost improvement techniques in design through operations. The systems design process of concept, definition, and design was assessed for the types and flow of total quality management techniques that may be applicable in a launch vehicle systems design analysis. Techniques discussed are task ordering, quality leverage, concurrent engineering, Pareto's principle, robustness, quality function deployment, criteria, and others. These cost oriented techniques are as applicable to aerospace systems design analysis as to any large commercial system.

Design of Launch Vehicle Flight Control Systems Using Ascent Vehicle Stability Analysis Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jang, Jiann-Woei; Alaniz, Abran; Hall, Robert; Bedossian, Nazareth; Hall, Charles; Jackson, Mark

2011-01-01

A launch vehicle represents a complicated flex-body structural environment for flight control system design. The Ascent-vehicle Stability Analysis Tool (ASAT) is developed to address the complicity in design and analysis of a launch vehicle. The design objective for the flight control system of a launch vehicle is to best follow guidance commands while robustly maintaining system stability. A constrained optimization approach takes the advantage of modern computational control techniques to simultaneously design multiple control systems in compliance with required design specs. "Tower Clearance" and "Load Relief" designs have been achieved for liftoff and max dynamic pressure flight regions, respectively, in the presence of large wind disturbances. The robustness of the flight control system designs has been verified in the frequency domain Monte Carlo analysis using ASAT.

Specifying design conservatism: Worst case versus probabilistic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, Ralph F., Jr.

1993-01-01

Design conservatism is the difference between specified and required performance, and is introduced when uncertainty is present. The classical approach of worst-case analysis for specifying design conservatism is presented, along with the modern approach of probabilistic analysis. The appropriate degree of design conservatism is a tradeoff between the required resources and the probability and consequences of a failure. A probabilistic analysis properly models this tradeoff, while a worst-case analysis reveals nothing about the probability of failure, and can significantly overstate the consequences of failure. Two aerospace examples will be presented that illustrate problems that can arise with a worst-case analysis.

Space Station Furnace Facility. Volume 2: Requirements Definition and Conceptual Design Study. Appendix 3: Environment Analysis. Volume 2; Appendix 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

A Preliminary Safety Analysis (PSA) is being accomplished as part of the Space Station Furnace Facility (SSFF) contract. This analysis is intended to support SSFF activities by analyzing concepts and designs as they mature to develop essential safety requirements for inclusion in the appropriate specifications, and designs, as early as possible. In addition, the analysis identifies significant safety concerns that may warrant specific trade studies or design definition, etc. The analysis activity to date concentrated on hazard and hazard cause identification and requirements development with the goal of developing a baseline set of detailed requirements to support trade study, specifications development, and preliminary design activities. The analysis activity will continue as the design and concepts mature. Section 2 defines what was analyzed, but it is likely that the SSFF definitions will undergo further changes. The safety analysis activity will reflect these changes as they occur. The analysis provides the foundation for later safety activities. The hazards identified will in most cases have Preliminary Design Review (PDR) applicability. The requirements and recommendations developed for each hazard will be tracked to ensure proper and early resolution of safety concerns.

Vehicle Design Evaluation Program (VDEP). A computer program for weight sizing, economic, performance and mission analysis of fuel-conservative aircraft, multibodied aircraft and large cargo aircraft using both JP and alternative fuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, B. H.

1977-01-01

The NASA Langley Research Center vehicle design evaluation program (VDEP-2) was expanded by (1) incorporating into the program a capability to conduct preliminary design studies on subsonic commercial transport type aircraft using both JP and such alternate fuels as hydrogen and methane;(2) incorporating an aircraft detailed mission and performance analysis capability; and (3) developing and incorporating an external loads analysis capability. The resulting computer program (VDEP-3) provides a preliminary design tool that enables the user to perform integrated sizing, structural analysis, and cost studies on subsonic commercial transport aircraft. Both versions of the VDEP-3 Program which are designated preliminary Analysis VDEP-3 and detailed Analysis VDEP utilize the same vehicle sizing subprogram which includes a detailed mission analysis capability, as well as a geometry and weight analysis for multibodied configurations.

Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimal Design: As Easy as it Sounds?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Greg; Chainyk, Mike; Schiermeier, John

2004-01-01

The viewgraph presentation examines optimal design for precision, large aperture structures. Discussion focuses on aspects of design optimization, code architecture and current capabilities, and planned activities and collaborative area suggestions. The discussion of design optimization examines design sensitivity analysis; practical considerations; and new analytical environments including finite element-based capability for high-fidelity multidisciplinary analysis, design sensitivity, and optimization. The discussion of code architecture and current capabilities includes basic thermal and structural elements, nonlinear heat transfer solutions and process, and optical modes generation.

Design and Analysis of an Experimental Setup for Determining the Burst Strength and Material Properties of Hollow Cylinders

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited DESIGN AND ANALYSIS...2. REPORT DATE December 2015 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF AN EXPERIMENTAL SETUP...Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF AN EXPERIMENTAL SETUP FOR DETERMINING THE BURST STRENGTH AND MATERIAL

Fusion reactor blanket/shield design study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. L.; Clemmer, R. G.; Harkness, S. D.; Jung, J.; Krazinski, J. L.; Mattas, R. F.; Stevens, H. C.; Youngdahl, C. K.; Trachsel, C.; Bowers, D.

1979-07-01

A joint study of Tokamak reactor first wall/blanket/shield technology was conducted to identify key technological limitations for various tritium breeding blanket design concepts, establishment of a basis for assessment and comparison of the design features of each concept, and development of optimized blanket designs. The approach used involved a review of previously proposed blanket designs, analysis of critical technological problems and design features associated with each of the blanket concepts, and a detailed evaluation of the most tractable design concepts. Tritium breeding blanket concepts were evaluated according to the proposed coolant. The effort concentrated on evaluation of lithium and water cooled blanket designs and helium and molten salt cooled designs. Generalized nuclear analysis of the tritium breeding performance, an analysis of tritium breeding requirements, and a first wall stress analysis were conducted as part of the study. The impact of coolant selection on the mechanical design of a Tokamak reactor was evaluated. Reference blanket designs utilizing the four candidate coolants are presented.

Design and Analysis of Subscale and Full-Scale Buckling-Critical Cylinders for Launch Vehicle Technology Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilburger, Mark W.; Lovejoy, Andrew E.; Thornburgh, Robert P.; Rankin, Charles

2012-01-01

NASA s Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor (SBKF) project has the goal of developing new analysis-based shell buckling design factors (knockdown factors) and design and analysis technologies for launch vehicle structures. Preliminary design studies indicate that implementation of these new knockdown factors can enable significant reductions in mass and mass-growth in these vehicles. However, in order to validate any new analysis-based design data or methods, a series of carefully designed and executed structural tests are required at both the subscale and full-scale levels. This paper describes the design and analysis of three different orthogrid-stiffeNed metallic cylindrical-shell test articles. Two of the test articles are 8-ft-diameter, 6-ft-long test articles, and one test article is a 27.5-ft-diameter, 20-ft-long Space Shuttle External Tank-derived test article.

Process Improvement Through Tool Integration in Aero-Mechanical Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Clark

2010-01-01

Emerging capabilities in commercial design tools promise to significantly improve the multi-disciplinary and inter-disciplinary design and analysis coverage for aerospace mechanical engineers. This paper explores the analysis process for two example problems of a wing and flap mechanical drive system and an aircraft landing gear door panel. The examples begin with the design solid models and include various analysis disciplines such as structural stress and aerodynamic loads. Analytical methods include CFD, multi-body dynamics with flexible bodies and structural analysis. Elements of analysis data management, data visualization and collaboration are also included.

A Software Tool for Integrated Optical Design Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Jim; Troy, Ed; DePlachett, Charles; Montgomery, Edward (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Design of large precision optical systems requires multi-disciplinary analysis, modeling, and design. Thermal, structural and optical characteristics of the hardware must be accurately understood in order to design a system capable of accomplishing the performance requirements. The interactions between each of the disciplines become stronger as systems are designed lighter weight for space applications. This coupling dictates a concurrent engineering design approach. In the past, integrated modeling tools have been developed that attempt to integrate all of the complex analysis within the framework of a single model. This often results in modeling simplifications and it requires engineering specialist to learn new applications. The software described in this presentation addresses the concurrent engineering task using a different approach. The software tool, Integrated Optical Design Analysis (IODA), uses data fusion technology to enable a cross discipline team of engineering experts to concurrently design an optical system using their standard validated engineering design tools.

Design and analysis of sustainable paper bicycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roni Sahroni, Taufik; Nasution, Januar

2017-12-01

This paper presents the design of sustainable paper bicycle which describes the stage by stage in the production of paper bicycle. The objective of this project is to design a sustainable paper bicycles to be used for children under five years old. The design analysis emphasizes in screening method to ensure the design fulfil the safety purposes. The evaluation concept is presented in designing a sustainable paper bicycle to determine highest rating. Project methodology is proposed for developing a sustainable paper bicycle. Design analysis of pedal, front and rear wheel, seat, and handle were presented using AutoCAD software. The design optimization was performed to fulfil the safety factors by modifying the material size and dimension. Based on the design analysis results, it is found that the optimization results met the factor safety. As a result, a sustainable paper bicycle was proposed for children under five years old.

Use of Probabilistic Engineering Methods in the Detailed Design and Development Phases of the NASA Ares Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fayssal, Safie; Weldon, Danny

2008-01-01

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program called Constellation to send crew and cargo to the international Space Station, to the moon, and beyond. As part of the Constellation program, a new launch vehicle, Ares I, is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Designing a launch vehicle with high reliability and increased safety requires a significant effort in understanding design variability and design uncertainty at the various levels of the design (system, element, subsystem, component, etc.) and throughout the various design phases (conceptual, preliminary design, etc.). In a previous paper [1] we discussed a probabilistic functional failure analysis approach intended mainly to support system requirements definition, system design, and element design during the early design phases. This paper provides an overview of the application of probabilistic engineering methods to support the detailed subsystem/component design and development as part of the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the new Ares I Launch Vehicle. Specifically, the paper discusses probabilistic engineering design analysis cases that had major impact on the design and manufacturing of the Space Shuttle hardware. The cases represent important lessons learned from the Space Shuttle Program and clearly demonstrate the significance of probabilistic engineering analysis in better understanding design deficiencies and identifying potential design improvement for Ares I. The paper also discusses the probabilistic functional failure analysis approach applied during the early design phases of Ares I and the forward plans for probabilistic design analysis in the detailed design and development phases.

Concept Maps as Instructional Tools for Improving Learning of Phase Transitions in Object-Oriented Analysis and Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Shin-Shing

2016-01-01

Students attending object-oriented analysis and design (OOAD) courses typically encounter difficulties transitioning from requirements analysis to logical design and then to physical design. Concept maps have been widely used in studies of user learning. The study reported here, based on the relationship of concept maps to learning theory and…

Cognitive Task Analysis, Interface Design, and Technical Troubleshooting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinberg, Linda S.; Gitomer, Drew H.

A model of the interface design process is proposed that makes use of two interdependent levels of cognitive analysis: the study of the criterion task through an analysis of expert/novice differences and the evaluation of the working user interface design through the application of a practical interface analysis methodology (GOMS model). This dual…

From the Analysis of Work-Processes to Designing Competence-Based Occupational Standards and Vocational Curricula

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tutlys, Vidmantas; Spöttl, Georg

2017-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to explore methodological and institutional challenges on application of the work-process analysis approach in the design and development of competence-based occupational standards for Lithuania. Design/methodology/approach: The theoretical analysis is based on the review of scientific literature and the analysis of…

Computer Graphics-aided systems analysis: application to well completion design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Detamore, J.E.; Sarma, M.P.

1985-03-01

The development of an engineering tool (in the form of a computer model) for solving design and analysis problems related with oil and gas well production operations is discussed. The development of the method is based on integrating the concepts of ''Systems Analysis'' with the techniques of ''Computer Graphics''. The concepts behind the method are very general in nature. This paper, however, illustrates the application of the method in solving gas well completion design problems. The use of the method will save time and improve the efficiency of such design and analysis problems. The method can be extended to othermore » design and analysis aspects of oil and gas wells.« less

Worst case analysis: Earth sensor assembly for the tropical rainfall measuring mission observatory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conley, Michael P.

1993-01-01

This worst case analysis verifies that the TRMMESA electronic design is capable of maintaining performance requirements when subjected to worst case circuit conditions. The TRMMESA design is a proven heritage design and capable of withstanding the most worst case and adverse of circuit conditions. Changes made to the baseline DMSP design are relatively minor and do not adversely effect the worst case analysis of the TRMMESA electrical design.

Design component method for sensitivity analysis of built-up structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Kyung K.; Seong, Hwai G.

1986-01-01

A 'design component method' that provides a unified and systematic organization of design sensitivity analysis for built-up structures is developed and implemented. Both conventional design variables, such as thickness and cross-sectional area, and shape design variables of components of built-up structures are considered. It is shown that design of components of built-up structures can be characterized and system design sensitivity expressions obtained by simply adding contributions from each component. The method leads to a systematic organization of computations for design sensitivity analysis that is similar to the way in which computations are organized within a finite element code.

Aircraft Conceptual Design and Risk Analysis Using Physics-Based Noise Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Erik D.; Mavris, Dimitri N.

2006-01-01

An approach was developed which allows for design studies of commercial aircraft using physics-based noise analysis methods while retaining the ability to perform the rapid trade-off and risk analysis studies needed at the conceptual design stage. A prototype integrated analysis process was created for computing the total aircraft EPNL at the Federal Aviation Regulations Part 36 certification measurement locations using physics-based methods for fan rotor-stator interaction tones and jet mixing noise. The methodology was then used in combination with design of experiments to create response surface equations (RSEs) for the engine and aircraft performance metrics, geometric constraints and take-off and landing noise levels. In addition, Monte Carlo analysis was used to assess the expected variability of the metrics under the influence of uncertainty, and to determine how the variability is affected by the choice of engine cycle. Finally, the RSEs were used to conduct a series of proof-of-concept conceptual-level design studies demonstrating the utility of the approach. The study found that a key advantage to using physics-based analysis during conceptual design lies in the ability to assess the benefits of new technologies as a function of the design to which they are applied. The greatest difficulty in implementing physics-based analysis proved to be the generation of design geometry at a sufficient level of detail for high-fidelity analysis.

TADS--A CFD-Based Turbomachinery Analysis and Design System with GUI: User's Manual. 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koiro, M. J.; Myers, R. A.; Delaney, R. A.

1999-01-01

The primary objective of this study was the development of a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based turbomachinery airfoil analysis and design system, controlled by a Graphical User Interface (GUI). The computer codes resulting from this effort are referred to as TADS (Turbomachinery Analysis and Design System). This document is intended to serve as a User's Manual for the computer programs which comprise the TADS system, developed under Task 18 of NASA Contract NAS3-27350, ADPAC System Coupling to Blade Analysis & Design System GUI and Task 10 of NASA Contract NAS3-27394, ADPAC System Coupling to Blade Analysis & Design System GUI, Phase II-Loss, Design and, Multi-stage Analysis. TADS couples a throughflow solver (ADPAC) with a quasi-3D blade-to-blade solver (RVCQ3D) in an interactive package. Throughflow analysis and design capability was developed in ADPAC through the addition of blade force and blockage terms to the governing equations. A GUI was developed to simplify user input and automate the many tasks required to perform turbomachinery analysis and design. The coupling of the various programs was done in such a way that alternative solvers or grid generators could be easily incorporated into the TADS framework. Results of aerodynamic calculations using the TADS system are presented for a highly loaded fan, a compressor stator, a low speed turbine blade and a transonic turbine vane.

Risk analysis of computer system designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallone, A.

1981-01-01

Adverse events during implementation can affect final capabilities, schedule and cost of a computer system even though the system was accurately designed and evaluated. Risk analysis enables the manager to forecast the impact of those events and to timely ask for design revisions or contingency plans before making any decision. This paper presents a structured procedure for an effective risk analysis. The procedure identifies the required activities, separates subjective assessments from objective evaluations, and defines a risk measure to determine the analysis results. The procedure is consistent with the system design evaluation and enables a meaningful comparison among alternative designs.

Estimating Intervention Effects across Different Types of Single-Subject Experimental Designs: Empirical Illustration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moeyaert, Mariola; Ugille, Maaike; Ferron, John M.; Onghena, Patrick; Heyvaert, Mieke; Beretvas, S. Natasha; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to illustrate the multilevel meta-analysis of results from single-subject experimental designs of different types, including AB phase designs, multiple-baseline designs, ABAB reversal designs, and alternating treatment designs. Current methodological work on the meta-analysis of single-subject experimental designs…

Analysis and design of a capsule landing system and surface vehicle control system for Mars exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Lashmet, P. K.; Sandor, G. N.; Shen, C. N.; Smith, E. V.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1973-01-01

Problems related to the design and control of a mobile planetary vehicle to implement a systematic plan for the exploration of Mars are reported. Problem areas include: vehicle configuration, control, dynamics, systems and propulsion; systems analysis, terrain modeling and path selection; and chemical analysis of specimens. These tasks are summarized: vehicle model design, mathematical model of vehicle dynamics, experimental vehicle dynamics, obstacle negotiation, electrochemical controls, remote control, collapsibility and deployment, construction of a wheel tester, wheel analysis, payload design, system design optimization, effect of design assumptions, accessory optimal design, on-board computer subsystem, laser range measurement, discrete obstacle detection, obstacle detection systems, terrain modeling, path selection system simulation and evaluation, gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer system concepts, and chromatograph model evaluation and improvement.

Structural design of composite rotor blades with consideration of manufacturability, durability, and manufacturing uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Leihong

A modular structural design methodology for composite blades is developed. This design method can be used to design composite rotor blades with sophisticate geometric cross-sections. This design method hierarchically decomposed the highly-coupled interdisciplinary rotor analysis into global and local levels. In the global level, aeroelastic response analysis and rotor trim are conduced based on multi-body dynamic models. In the local level, variational asymptotic beam sectional analysis methods are used for the equivalent one-dimensional beam properties. Compared with traditional design methodology, the proposed method is more efficient and accurate. Then, the proposed method is used to study three different design problems that have not been investigated before. The first is to add manufacturing constraints into design optimization. The introduction of manufacturing constraints complicates the optimization process. However, the design with manufacturing constraints benefits the manufacturing process and reduces the risk of violating major performance constraints. Next, a new design procedure for structural design against fatigue failure is proposed. This procedure combines the fatigue analysis with the optimization process. The durability or fatigue analysis employs a strength-based model. The design is subject to stiffness, frequency, and durability constraints. Finally, the manufacturing uncertainty impacts on rotor blade aeroelastic behavior are investigated, and a probabilistic design method is proposed to control the impacts of uncertainty on blade structural performance. The uncertainty factors include dimensions, shapes, material properties, and service loads.

Stochastic Simulation Tool for Aerospace Structural Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F.; Moore, David F.

2006-01-01

Stochastic simulation refers to incorporating the effects of design tolerances and uncertainties into the design analysis model and then determining their influence on the design. A high-level evaluation of one such stochastic simulation tool, the MSC.Robust Design tool by MSC.Software Corporation, has been conducted. This stochastic simulation tool provides structural analysts with a tool to interrogate their structural design based on their mathematical description of the design problem using finite element analysis methods. This tool leverages the analyst's prior investment in finite element model development of a particular design. The original finite element model is treated as the baseline structural analysis model for the stochastic simulations that are to be performed. A Monte Carlo approach is used by MSC.Robust Design to determine the effects of scatter in design input variables on response output parameters. The tool was not designed to provide a probabilistic assessment, but to assist engineers in understanding cause and effect. It is driven by a graphical-user interface and retains the engineer-in-the-loop strategy for design evaluation and improvement. The application problem for the evaluation is chosen to be a two-dimensional shell finite element model of a Space Shuttle wing leading-edge panel under re-entry aerodynamic loading. MSC.Robust Design adds value to the analysis effort by rapidly being able to identify design input variables whose variability causes the most influence in response output parameters.

FINDING A METHOD FOR THE MADNESS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIC DESIGN METHODOLOGIES

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

FINDING A METHOD FOR THE MADNESS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIC DESIGN METHODOLOGIES BY AMANDA DONNELLY A THESIS...work develops a comparative model for strategic design methodologies, focusing on the primary elements of vision, time, process, communication and...collaboration, and risk assessment. My analysis dissects and compares three potential design methodologies including, net assessment, scenarios and

Team-Based Peer Review as a Form of Formative Assessment--The Case of a Systems Analysis and Design Workshop

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lavy, Ilana; Yadin, Aharon

2010-01-01

The present study was carried out within a systems analysis and design workshop. In addition to the standard analysis and design tasks, this workshop included practices designed to enhance student capabilities related to non-technical knowledge areas, such as critical thinking, interpersonal and team skills, and business understanding. Each task…

Orbital transfer rocket engine technology 7.5K-LB thrust rocket engine preliminary design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harmon, T. J.; Roschak, E.

1993-01-01

A preliminary design of an advanced LOX/LH2 expander cycle rocket engine producing 7,500 lbf thrust for Orbital Transfer vehicle missions was completed. Engine system, component and turbomachinery analysis at both on design and off design conditions were completed. The preliminary design analysis results showed engine requirements and performance goals were met. Computer models are described and model outputs are presented. Engine system assembly layouts, component layouts and valve and control system analysis are presented. Major design technologies were identified and remaining issues and concerns were listed.

Urban Planning and Management Information Systems Analysis and Design Based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, Wang

Based on the analysis of existing relevant systems on the basis of inadequate, after a detailed investigation and research, urban planning and management information system will be designed for three-tier structure system, under the LAN using C/S mode architecture. Related functions for the system designed in accordance with the requirements of the architecture design of the functional relationships between the modules. Analysis of the relevant interface and design, data storage solutions proposed. The design for small and medium urban planning information system provides a viable building program.

Rapid SAW Sensor Development Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, William C.; Atkinson, Gary M.

2007-01-01

The lack of integrated design tools for Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) devices has led us to develop tools for the design, modeling, analysis, and automatic layout generation of SAW devices. These tools enable rapid development of wireless SAW sensors. The tools developed have been designed to integrate into existing Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools to take advantage of existing 3D modeling, and Finite Element Analysis (FEA). This paper presents the SAW design, modeling, analysis, and automated layout generation tools.

Design-to-cost

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradley, F. E.

1974-01-01

Attempts made to design to costs equipment, vehicles and subsystems for various space projects are discussed. A systematic approach, based on mission requirement analysis, definition of a mission baseline design, benefit and cost analysis, and a benefit-cost analysis was proposed for implementing the cost control program.

Analysis of the Optimum Receiver Design Problem Using Interactive Computer Graphics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

7 _AD A115 498A l AR FORCE INST OF TECH WR16HT-PATTERSON AF8 OH SCHOO--ETC F/6 9/2 ANALYSIS OF THE OPTIMUM RECEIVER DESIGN PROBLEM USING INTERACTI...ANALYSIS OF THE OPTIMUM RECEIVER DESIGN PROBLEM USING INTERACTIVE COMPUTER GRAPHICS THESIS AFIT/GE/EE/81D-39 Michael R. Mazzuechi Cpt USA Approved for...public release; distribution unlimited AFIT/GE/EE/SlD-39 ANALYSIS OF THE OPTIMUM RECEIVER DESIGN PROBLEM USING INTERACTIVE COMPUTER GRAPHICS THESIS

Payload analysis for space shuttle applications (study 2.2). Volume 3: Payload system operations analysis (task 2.2.1). [payload system operations analysis for shuttles and space tugs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The technical and cost analysis that was performed for the payload system operations analysis is presented. The technical analysis consists of the operations for the payload/shuttle and payload/tug, and the spacecraft analysis which includes sortie, automated, and large observatory type payloads. The cost analysis includes the costing tradeoffs of the various payload design concepts and traffic models. The overall objectives of this effort were to identify payload design and operational concepts for the shuttle which will result in low cost design, and to examine the low cost design concepts to identify applicable design guidelines. The operations analysis examined several past and current NASA and DoD satellite programs to establish a shuttle operations model. From this model the analysis examined the payload/shuttle flow and determined facility concepts necessary for effective payload/shuttle ground operations. The study of the payload/tug operations was an examination of the various flight timelines for missions requiring the tug.

A Content Analysis of Instructional Design and Web Design Books: Implications for Inclusion of Web Design in Instructional Design Textbooks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Obilade, Titilola T.; Burton, John K.

2015-01-01

This textual content analysis set out to determine the extent to which the theories, principles, and guidelines in 4 standard books of instructional design and technology were also addressed in 4 popular books on web design. The standard books on instructional design and the popular books on web design were chosen by experts in the fields. The…

Analysis and Design of a Double-Divert Spiral Groove Seal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Xiaoqing; Berard, Gerald

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation describes the design and analysis of a double spiral groove seal. The contents include: 1) Double Spiral Design Features; 2) Double Spiral Operational Features; 3) Mating Ring/Rotor Assembly; 4) Seal Ring Assembly; 5) Insert Segment Joints; 6) Rotor Assembly Completed Prototype Parts; 7) Seal Assembly Completed Prototype Parts; 8) Finite Element Analysis; 9) Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Analysis; 10) Restrictive Orifice Design; 11) Orifice CFD Model; 12) Orifice Results; 13) Restrictive Orifice; 14) Seal Face Coning; 15) Permanent Magnet Analysis; 16) Magnetic Repulsive Force; 17) Magnetic Repulsive Test Results; 18) Spin Testing; and 19) Testing and Validation.

New multivariable capabilities of the INCA program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Frank H.; Downing, John P.; Thorpe, Christopher J.

1989-01-01

The INteractive Controls Analysis (INCA) program was developed at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center to provide a user friendly, efficient environment for the design and analysis of control systems, specifically spacecraft control systems. Since its inception, INCA has found extensive use in the design, development, and analysis of control systems for spacecraft, instruments, robotics, and pointing systems. The (INCA) program was initially developed as a comprehensive classical design analysis tool for small and large order control systems. The latest version of INCA, expected to be released in February of 1990, was expanded to include the capability to perform multivariable controls analysis and design.

Control system design and analysis using the INteractive Controls Analysis (INCA) program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Frank H.; Downing, John P.

1987-01-01

The INteractive Controls Analysis (INCA) program was developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center to provide a user friendly efficient environment for the design and analysis of linear control systems. Since its inception, INCA has found extensive use in the design, development, and analysis of control systems for spacecraft, instruments, robotics, and pointing systems. Moreover, the results of the analytic tools imbedded in INCA have been flight proven with at least three currently orbiting spacecraft. This paper describes the INCA program and illustrates, using a flight proven example, how the package can perform complex design analyses with relative ease.

Preliminary Design of a Manned Nuclear Electric Propulsion Vehicle Using Genetic Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Irwin, Ryan W.; Tinker, Michael L.

2005-01-01

Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) vehicles will be needed for future manned missions to Mars and beyond. Candidate designs must be identified for further detailed design from a large array of possibilities. Genetic algorithms have proven their utility in conceptual design studies by effectively searching a large design space to pinpoint unique optimal designs. This research combined analysis codes for NEP subsystems with a genetic algorithm. The use of penalty functions with scaling ratios was investigated to increase computational efficiency. Also, the selection of design variables for optimization was considered to reduce computation time without losing beneficial design search space. Finally, trend analysis of a reference mission to the asteroids yielded a group of candidate designs for further analysis.

Building a Practical Natural Laminar Flow Design Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Richard L.; Lynde, Michelle N.

2017-01-01

A preliminary natural laminar flow (NLF) design method that has been developed and applied to supersonic and transonic wings with moderate-to-high leading-edge sweeps at flight Reynolds numbers is further extended and evaluated in this paper. The modular design approach uses a knowledge-based design module linked with different flow solvers and boundary layer stability analysis methods to provide a multifidelity capability for NLF analysis and design. An assessment of the effects of different options for stability analysis is included using pressures and geometry from an NLF wing designed for the Common Research Model (CRM). Several extensions to the design module are described, including multiple new approaches to design for controlling attachment line contamination and transition. Finally, a modification to the NLF design algorithm that allows independent control of Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) and cross flow (CF) modes is proposed. A preliminary evaluation of the TS-only option applied to the design of an NLF nacelle for the CRM is performed that includes the use of a low-fidelity stability analysis directly in the design module.

Optimization, an Important Stage of Engineering Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelley, Todd R.

2010-01-01

A number of leaders in technology education have indicated that a major difference between the technological design process and the engineering design process is analysis and optimization. The analysis stage of the engineering design process is when mathematical models and scientific principles are employed to help the designer predict design…

Methodology for CFD Design Analysis of National Launch System Nozzle Manifold

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haire, Scot L.

1993-01-01

The current design environment dictates that high technology CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) analysis produce quality results in a timely manner if it is to be integrated into the design process. The design methodology outlined describes the CFD analysis of an NLS (National Launch System) nozzle film cooling manifold. The objective of the analysis was to obtain a qualitative estimate for the flow distribution within the manifold. A complex, 3D, multiple zone, structured grid was generated from a 3D CAD file of the geometry. A Euler solution was computed with a fully implicit compressible flow solver. Post processing consisted of full 3D color graphics and mass averaged performance. The result was a qualitative CFD solution that provided the design team with relevant information concerning the flow distribution in and performance characteristics of the film cooling manifold within an effective time frame. Also, this design methodology was the foundation for a quick turnaround CFD analysis of the next iteration in the manifold design.

Natural Resource Information System, design analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The computer-based system stores, processes, and displays map data relating to natural resources. The system was designed on the basis of requirements established in a user survey and an analysis of decision flow. The design analysis effort is described, and the rationale behind major design decisions, including map processing, cell vs. polygon, choice of classification systems, mapping accuracy, system hardware, and software language is summarized.

Space tug economic analysis study. Volume 2: Tug concepts analysis. Appendix: Tug design and performance data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The tug design and performance data base for the economic analysis of space tug operation are presented. A compendium of the detailed design and performance information from the data base is developed. The design data are parametric across a range of reusable space tug sizes. The performance curves are generated for selected point designs of expendable orbit injection stages and reusable tugs. Data are presented in the form of graphs for various modes of operation.

A System Analysis Approach to Robot Gripper Control Using Phase Lag Compensator Bode Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Khin Muyar; Lin, Htin; Tun, Hla Myo

2008-10-01

In this paper, we introduce the result comparisons that were developed for the phase lag compensator design using Bode Plots. The implementation of classical experiments as MATLAB m-files is described. Robot gripper control system can be designed to gain insight into a variety of concepts, including stabilization of unstable systems, compensation properties, Bode analysis and design. The analysis has resulted in a number of important conclusions for the design of a new generation of control support systems.

Aerodynamic design and analysis of a highly loaded turbine exhaust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huber, F. W.; Montesdeoca, X. A.; Rowey, R. J.

1993-01-01

The aerodynamic design and analysis of a turbine exhaust volute manifold is described. This turbine exhaust system will be used with an advanced gas generator oxidizer turbine designed for very high specific work. The elevated turbine stage loading results in increased discharge Mach number and swirl velocity which, along with the need for minimal circumferential variation of fluid properties at the turbine exit, represent challenging volute design requirements. The design approach, candidate geometries analyzed, and steady state/unsteady CFD analysis results are presented.

Naturalistic Decision Making: Implications for Design

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-04-01

Cognitive Task Analysis Decision Making Design Engineer Design System Human-Computer Interface System Development 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 182 16...people use to select a course of action. The SOAR explains how stress affects the decision making of both individuals and teams. COGNITIVE TASK ANALYSIS : This...procedures for Cognitive Task Analysis , contrasting the strengths and weaknesses of each, and showing how a Cognitive Task Analysis

Interactive Image Analysis System Design,

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

This report describes a design for an interactive image analysis system (IIAS), which implements terrain data extraction techniques. The design... analysis system. Additionally, the system is fully capable of supporting many generic types of image analysis and data processing, and is modularly...employs commercially available, state of the art minicomputers and image display devices with proven software to achieve a cost effective, reliable image

Analysis and design of a capsule landing system and surface vehicle control system for Mars exporation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Lashmet, P. K.; Sandor, G. N.; Shen, C. N.; Smith, E. J.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1972-01-01

The problems related to the design and control of a mobile planetary vehicle to implement a systematic plan for the exploration of Mars were investigated. Problem areas receiving attention include: vehicle configuration, control, dynamics, systems and propulsion; systems analysis; navigation, terrain modeling and path selection; and chemical analysis of specimens. The following specific tasks were studied: vehicle model design, mathematical modeling of dynamic vehicle, experimental vehicle dynamics, obstacle negotiation, electromechanical controls, collapsibility and deployment, construction of a wheel tester, wheel analysis, payload design, system design optimization, effect of design assumptions, accessory optimal design, on-board computer subsystem, laser range measurement, discrete obstacle detection, obstacle detection systems, terrain modeling, path selection system simulation and evaluation, gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer system concepts, chromatograph model evaluation and improvement and transport parameter evaluation.

Analysis and design of a capsule landing system and surface vehicle control system for Mars exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, D. K.; Lashmet, P. K.; Sandor, G. N.; Shen, C. N.; Smith, E. J.; Yerazunis, S. W.

1972-01-01

Investigation of problems related to the design and control of a mobile planetary vehicle to implement a systematic plan for the exploration of Mars has been undertaken. Problem areas receiving attention include: vehicle configuration, control, dynamics, systems and propulsion; systems analysis; terrain modeling and path selection; and chemical analysis of specimens. The following specific tasks have been under study: vehicle model design, mathematical modeling of a dynamic vehicle, experimental vehicle dynamics, obstacle negotiation, electromechanical controls, collapsibility and deployment, construction of a wheel tester, wheel analysis, payload design, system design optimization, effect of design assumptions, accessory optimal design, on-board computer sybsystem, laser range measurement, discrete obstacle detection, obstacle detection systems, terrain modeling, path selection system simulation and evaluation, gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer system concepts, chromatograph model evaluation and improvement.

Multi-Mission System Analysis for Planetary Entry (M-SAPE) Version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samareh, Jamshid; Glaab, Louis; Winski, Richard G.; Maddock, Robert W.; Emmett, Anjie L.; Munk, Michelle M.; Agrawal, Parul; Sepka, Steve; Aliaga, Jose; Zarchi, Kerry;

Design and analysis of a keel latch for use on the Hubble Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calvert, John; Stinson, Melanie

1986-01-01

The mechanical design of the keel latch is discussed, as well as the stress analysis of the keel latch. Background information; mechanical design requirements; some of the initial design considerations; the design considerations that led to the selection of the final design; the mechanics of the final design; testing that has been and will be accomplished to verify that design requirements have been met; and future tests are discussed.

Performer-centric Interface Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGraw, Karen L.

1995-01-01

Describes performer-centric interface design and explains a model-based approach for conducting performer-centric analysis and design. Highlights include design methodology, including cognitive task analysis; creating task scenarios; creating the presentation model; creating storyboards; proof of concept screens; object models and icons;…

Preliminary design review report - sludge offload system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mcwethy, L.M. Westinghouse Hanford

1996-06-05

This report documents the conceptual design review of the sludge offload system for the Spent Nuclear Fuel Project. The design description, drawings, available analysis, and safety analysis were reviewed by a peer group. The design review comments and resolutions are documented.

A Government/Industry Summary of the Design Analysis Methods for Vibrations (DAMVIBS) Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kvaternik, Raymond G. (Compiler)

1993-01-01

The NASA Langley Research Center in 1984 initiated a rotorcraft structural dynamics program, designated DAMVIBS (Design Analysis Methods for VIBrationS), with the objective of establishing the technology base needed by the rotorcraft industry for developing an advanced finite-element-based dynamics design analysis capability for vibrations. An assessment of the program showed that the DAMVIBS Program has resulted in notable technical achievements and major changes in industrial design practice, all of which have significantly advanced the industry's capability to use and rely on finite-element-based dynamics analyses during the design process.

The NASA Monographs on Shell Stability Design Recommendations: A Review and Suggested Improvements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Michael P.; Starnes, James H., Jr.

1998-01-01

A summary of existing NASA design criteria monographs for the design of buckling-resistant thin-shell structures is presented. Subsequent improvements in the analysis for nonlinear shell response are reviewed, and current issues in shell stability analysis are discussed. Examples of nonlinear shell responses that are not included in the existing shell design monographs are presented, and an approach for including reliability based analysis procedures in the shell design process is discussed. Suggestions for conducting future shell experiments are presented, and proposed improvements to the NASA shell design criteria monographs are discussed.

The NASA Monographs on Shell Stability Design Recommendations: A Review and Suggested Improvements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Michael P.; Starnes, James H., Jr.

1998-01-01

A summary of the existing NASA design criteria monographs for the design of buckling-resistant thin-shell structures is presented. Subsequent improvements in the analysis for nonlinear shell response are reviewed, and current issues in shell stability analysis are discussed. Examples of nonlinear shell responses that are not included in the existing shell design monographs are presented, and an approach for including reliability-based analysis procedures in the shell design process is discussed. Suggestions for conducting future shell experiments are presented, and proposed improvements to the NASA shell design criteria monographs are discussed.

A transonic-small-disturbance wing design methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, Pamela S.; Waggoner, Edgar G.; Campbell, Richard L.

1988-01-01

An automated transonic design code has been developed which modifies an initial airfoil or wing in order to generate a specified pressure distribution. The design method uses an iterative approach that alternates between a potential-flow analysis and a design algorithm that relates changes in surface pressure to changes in geometry. The analysis code solves an extended small-disturbance potential-flow equation and can model a fuselage, pylons, nacelles, and a winglet in addition to the wing. A two-dimensional option is available for airfoil analysis and design. Several two- and three-dimensional test cases illustrate the capabilities of the design code.

Development of Response Surface Models for Rapid Analysis & Multidisciplinary Optimization of Launch Vehicle Design Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unal, Resit

1999-01-01

Multdisciplinary design optimization (MDO) is an important step in the design and evaluation of launch vehicles, since it has a significant impact on performance and lifecycle cost. The objective in MDO is to search the design space to determine the values of design parameters that optimize the performance characteristics subject to system constraints. Vehicle Analysis Branch (VAB) at NASA Langley Research Center has computerized analysis tools in many of the disciplines required for the design and analysis of launch vehicles. Vehicle performance characteristics can be determined by the use of these computerized analysis tools. The next step is to optimize the system performance characteristics subject to multidisciplinary constraints. However, most of the complex sizing and performance evaluation codes used for launch vehicle design are stand-alone tools, operated by disciplinary experts. They are, in general, difficult to integrate and use directly for MDO. An alternative has been to utilize response surface methodology (RSM) to obtain polynomial models that approximate the functional relationships between performance characteristics and design variables. These approximation models, called response surface models, are then used to integrate the disciplines using mathematical programming methods for efficient system level design analysis, MDO and fast sensitivity simulations. A second-order response surface model of the form given has been commonly used in RSM since in many cases it can provide an adequate approximation especially if the region of interest is sufficiently limited.

More on Time Series Designs: A Reanalysis of Mayer and Kozlow's Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willson, Victor L.

1982-01-01

Differentiating between time-series design and time-series analysis, examines design considerations and reanalyzes data previously reported by Mayer and Kozlow in this journal. The current analysis supports the analysis performed by Mayer and Kozlow but puts the results on a somewhat firmer statistical footing. (Author/JN)

Using Importance-Performance Analysis to Guide Instructional Design of Experiential Learning Activities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Sheri; Hsu, Yu-Chang; Kinney, Judy

2016-01-01

Designing experiential learning activities requires an instructor to think about what they want the students to learn. Using importance-performance analysis can assist with the instructional design of the activities. This exploratory study used importance-performance analysis in an online introduction to criminology course. There is limited…

Analysis and Design of Fuselage Structures Including Residual Strength Prediction Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F.

1998-01-01

The goal of this research project is to develop and assess methodologies for the design and analysis of fuselage structures accounting for residual strength. Two primary objectives are included in this research activity: development of structural analysis methodology for predicting residual strength of fuselage shell-type structures; and the development of accurate, efficient analysis, design and optimization tool for fuselage shell structures. Assessment of these tools for robustness, efficient, and usage in a fuselage shell design environment will be integrated with these two primary research objectives.

Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) Testability Analysis Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ossenfort, John

2008-01-01

As system designs become more complex, determining the best locations to add sensors and test points for the purpose of testing and monitoring these designs becomes more difficult. Not only must the designer take into consideration all real and potential faults of the system, he or she must also find efficient ways of detecting and isolating those faults. Because sensors and cabling take up valuable space and weight on a system, and given constraints on bandwidth and power, it is even more difficult to add sensors into these complex designs after the design has been completed. As a result, a number of software tools have been developed to assist the system designer in proper placement of these sensors during the system design phase of a project. One of the key functions provided by many of these software programs is a testability analysis of the system essentially an evaluation of how observable the system behavior is using available tests. During the design phase, testability metrics can help guide the designer in improving the inherent testability of the design. This may include adding, removing, or modifying tests; breaking up feedback loops, or changing the system to reduce fault propagation. Given a set of test requirements, the analysis can also help to verify that the system will meet those requirements. Of course, a testability analysis requires that a software model of the physical system is available. For the analysis to be most effective in guiding system design, this model should ideally be constructed in parallel with these efforts. The purpose of this paper is to present the final testability results of the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) after the system model was completed. The tool chosen to build the model and to perform the testability analysis with is the Testability Engineering and Maintenance System Designer (TEAMS-Designer). The TEAMS toolset is intended to be a solution to span all phases of the system, from design and development through health management and maintenance. TEAMS-Designer is the model-building and testability analysis software in that suite.

Visual Analysis as a design and decision-making tool in the development of a quarry

Treesearch

Randall Boyd Fitzgerald

1979-01-01

In order to obtain local and state government approvals, an environmental impact analysis of the mining and reclamation of a proposed hard rock quarry was required. High visibility of the proposed mining area from the adjacent community required a visual impact analysis in the planning and design of the project. The Visual Analysis defined design criteria for the...

Geometric modeling for computer aided design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwing, James L.; Olariu, Stephen

1995-01-01

The primary goal of this grant has been the design and implementation of software to be used in the conceptual design of aerospace vehicles particularly focused on the elements of geometric design, graphical user interfaces, and the interaction of the multitude of software typically used in this engineering environment. This has resulted in the development of several analysis packages and design studies. These include two major software systems currently used in the conceptual level design of aerospace vehicles. These tools are SMART, the Solid Modeling Aerospace Research Tool, and EASIE, the Environment for Software Integration and Execution. Additional software tools were designed and implemented to address the needs of the engineer working in the conceptual design environment. SMART provides conceptual designers with a rapid prototyping capability and several engineering analysis capabilities. In addition, SMART has a carefully engineered user interface that makes it easy to learn and use. Finally, a number of specialty characteristics have been built into SMART which allow it to be used efficiently as a front end geometry processor for other analysis packages. EASIE provides a set of interactive utilities that simplify the task of building and executing computer aided design systems consisting of diverse, stand-alone, analysis codes. Resulting in a streamlining of the exchange of data between programs reducing errors and improving the efficiency. EASIE provides both a methodology and a collection of software tools to ease the task of coordinating engineering design and analysis codes.

Cognitive Task Analysis for Instructional Design: Applications in Distance Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Redding, Richard E.

1995-01-01

Provides an overview of cognitive task analysis-based instructional design (CTA-BID) and its applications in the design of instructional and testing materials for distance education. Reviews developments in education, psychology, and instructional design that complement CTA-BID. (Author/AEF)

Integration of design, structural, thermal and optical analysis: And user's guide for structural-to-optical translator (PATCOD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amundsen, R. M.; Feldhaus, W. S.; Little, A. D.; Mitchum, M. V.

1995-01-01

Electronic integration of design and analysis processes was achieved and refined at Langley Research Center (LaRC) during the development of an optical bench for a laser-based aerospace experiment. Mechanical design has been integrated with thermal, structural and optical analyses. Electronic import of the model geometry eliminates the repetitive steps of geometry input to develop each analysis model, leading to faster and more accurate analyses. Guidelines for integrated model development are given. This integrated analysis process has been built around software that was already in use by designers and analysis at LaRC. The process as currently implemented used Pro/Engineer for design, Pro/Manufacturing for fabrication, PATRAN for solid modeling, NASTRAN for structural analysis, SINDA-85 and P/Thermal for thermal analysis, and Code V for optical analysis. Currently, the only analysis model to be built manually is the Code V model; all others can be imported for the Pro/E geometry. The translator from PATRAN results to Code V optical analysis (PATCOD) was developed and tested at LaRC. Directions for use of the translator or other models are given.

System Risk Assessment and Allocation in Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Smith, Natasha L.; Zang, Thomas A. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

As aerospace systems continue to evolve in addressing newer challenges in air and space transportation, there exists a heightened priority for significant improvement in system performance, cost effectiveness, reliability, and safety. Tools, which synthesize multidisciplinary integration, probabilistic analysis, and optimization, are needed to facilitate design decisions allowing trade-offs between cost and reliability. This study investigates tools for probabilistic analysis and probabilistic optimization in the multidisciplinary design of aerospace systems. A probabilistic optimization methodology is demonstrated for the low-fidelity design of a reusable launch vehicle at two levels, a global geometry design and a local tank design. Probabilistic analysis is performed on a high fidelity analysis of a Navy missile system. Furthermore, decoupling strategies are introduced to reduce the computational effort required for multidisciplinary systems with feedback coupling.

HPCC Methodologies for Structural Design and Analysis on Parallel and Distributed Computing Platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farhat, Charbel

1998-01-01

In this grant, we have proposed a three-year research effort focused on developing High Performance Computation and Communication (HPCC) methodologies for structural analysis on parallel processors and clusters of workstations, with emphasis on reducing the structural design cycle time. Besides consolidating and further improving the FETI solver technology to address plate and shell structures, we have proposed to tackle the following design related issues: (a) parallel coupling and assembly of independently designed and analyzed three-dimensional substructures with non-matching interfaces, (b) fast and smart parallel re-analysis of a given structure after it has undergone design modifications, (c) parallel evaluation of sensitivity operators (derivatives) for design optimization, and (d) fast parallel analysis of mildly nonlinear structures. While our proposal was accepted, support was provided only for one year.

Development of direct-inverse 3-D methods for applied transonic aerodynamic wing design and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Leland A.

1989-01-01

An inverse wing design method was developed around an existing transonic wing analysis code. The original analysis code, TAWFIVE, has as its core the numerical potential flow solver, FLO30, developed by Jameson and Caughey. Features of the analysis code include a finite-volume formulation; wing and fuselage fitted, curvilinear grid mesh; and a viscous boundary layer correction that also accounts for viscous wake thickness and curvature. The development of the inverse methods as an extension of previous methods existing for design in Cartesian coordinates is presented. Results are shown for inviscid wing design cases in super-critical flow regimes. The test cases selected also demonstrate the versatility of the design method in designing an entire wing or discontinuous sections of a wing.

Computational electronics and electromagnetics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shang, C C

The Computational Electronics and Electromagnetics thrust area serves as the focal point for Engineering R and D activities for developing computer-based design and analysis tools. Representative applications include design of particle accelerator cells and beamline components; design of transmission line components; engineering analysis and design of high-power (optical and microwave) components; photonics and optoelectronics circuit design; electromagnetic susceptibility analysis; and antenna synthesis. The FY-97 effort focuses on development and validation of (1) accelerator design codes; (2) 3-D massively parallel, time-dependent EM codes; (3) material models; (4) coupling and application of engineering tools for analysis and design of high-power components; andmore » (5) development of beam control algorithms coupled to beam transport physics codes. These efforts are in association with technology development in the power conversion, nondestructive evaluation, and microtechnology areas. The efforts complement technology development in Lawrence Livermore National programs.« less

The Research of Computer Aided Farm Machinery Designing Method Based on Ergonomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xiyin; Li, Xinling; Song, Qiang; Zheng, Ying

Along with agricultural economy development, the farm machinery product type Increases gradually, the ergonomics question is also getting more and more prominent. The widespread application of computer aided machinery design makes it possible that farm machinery design is intuitive, flexible and convenient. At present, because the developed computer aided ergonomics software has not suitable human body database, which is needed in view of farm machinery design in China, the farm machinery design have deviation in ergonomics analysis. This article puts forward that using the open database interface procedure in CATIA to establish human body database which aims at the farm machinery design, and reading the human body data to ergonomics module of CATIA can product practical application virtual body, using human posture analysis and human activity analysis module to analysis the ergonomics in farm machinery, thus computer aided farm machinery designing method based on engineering can be realized.

RADC SCAT automated sneak circuit analysis tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Depalma, Edward L.

The sneak circuit analysis tool (SCAT) provides a PC-based system for real-time identification (during the design phase) of sneak paths and design concerns. The tool utilizes an expert system shell to assist the analyst so that prior experience with sneak analysis is not necessary for performance. Both sneak circuits and design concerns are targeted by this tool, with both digital and analog circuits being examined. SCAT focuses the analysis at the assembly level, rather than the entire system, so that most sneak problems can be identified and corrected by the responsible design engineer in a timely manner. The SCAT program identifies the sneak circuits to the designer, who then decides what course of action is necessary.

Experiment Design and Analysis Guide - Neutronics & Physics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Misti A Lillo

2014-06-01

The purpose of this guide is to provide a consistent, standardized approach to performing neutronics/physics analysis for experiments inserted into the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). This document provides neutronics/physics analysis guidance to support experiment design and analysis needs for experiments irradiated in the ATR. This guide addresses neutronics/physics analysis in support of experiment design, experiment safety, and experiment program objectives and goals. The intent of this guide is to provide a standardized approach for performing typical neutronics/physics analyses. Deviation from this guide is allowed provided that neutronics/physics analysis details are properly documented in an analysis report.

Automating Structural Analysis of Spacecraft Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hrinda, Glenn A.

2004-01-01

A major effort within NASA's vehicle analysis discipline has been to automate structural analysis and sizing optimization during conceptual design studies of advanced spacecraft. Traditional spacecraft structural sizing has involved detailed finite element analysis (FEA) requiring large degree-of-freedom (DOF) finite element models (FEM). Creation and analysis of these models can be time consuming and limit model size during conceptual designs. The goal is to find an optimal design that meets the mission requirements but produces the lightest structure. A structural sizing tool called HyperSizer has been successfully used in the conceptual design phase of a reusable launch vehicle and planetary exploration spacecraft. The program couples with FEA to enable system level performance assessments and weight predictions including design optimization of material selections and sizing of spacecraft members. The software's analysis capabilities are based on established aerospace structural methods for strength, stability and stiffness that produce adequately sized members and reliable structural weight estimates. The software also helps to identify potential structural deficiencies early in the conceptual design so changes can be made without wasted time. HyperSizer's automated analysis and sizing optimization increases productivity and brings standardization to a systems study. These benefits will be illustrated in examining two different types of conceptual spacecraft designed using the software. A hypersonic air breathing, single stage to orbit (SSTO), reusable launch vehicle (RLV) will be highlighted as well as an aeroshell for a planetary exploration vehicle used for aerocapture at Mars. By showing the two different types of vehicles, the software's flexibility will be demonstrated with an emphasis on reducing aeroshell structural weight. Member sizes, concepts and material selections will be discussed as well as analysis methods used in optimizing the structure. Analysis based on the HyperSizer structural sizing software will be discussed. Design trades required to optimize structural weight will be presented.

Preliminary Axial Flow Turbine Design and Off-Design Performance Analysis Methods for Rotary Wing Aircraft Engines. Part 1; Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Shu-cheng, S.

2009-01-01

For the preliminary design and the off-design performance analysis of axial flow turbines, a pair of intermediate level-of-fidelity computer codes, TD2-2 (design; reference 1) and AXOD (off-design; reference 2), are being evaluated for use in turbine design and performance prediction of the modern high performance aircraft engines. TD2-2 employs a streamline curvature method for design, while AXOD approaches the flow analysis with an equal radius-height domain decomposition strategy. Both methods resolve only the flows in the annulus region while modeling the impact introduced by the blade rows. The mathematical formulations and derivations involved in both methods are documented in references 3, 4 for TD2-2) and in reference 5 (for AXOD). The focus of this paper is to discuss the fundamental issues of applicability and compatibility of the two codes as a pair of companion pieces, to perform preliminary design and off-design analysis for modern aircraft engine turbines. Two validation cases for the design and the off-design prediction using TD2-2 and AXOD conducted on two existing high efficiency turbines, developed and tested in the NASA/GE Energy Efficient Engine (GE-E3) Program, the High Pressure Turbine (HPT; two stages, air cooled) and the Low Pressure Turbine (LPT; five stages, un-cooled), are provided in support of the analysis and discussion presented in this paper.

Parametric Design and Mechanical Analysis of Beams based on SINOVATION

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z. G.; Shen, W. D.; Yang, D. Y.; Liu, W. M.

2017-07-01

In engineering practice, engineer needs to carry out complicated calculation when the loads on the beam are complex. The processes of analysis and calculation take a lot of time and the results are unreliable. So VS2005 and ADK are used to develop a software for beams design based on the 3D CAD software SINOVATION with C ++ programming language. The software can realize the mechanical analysis and parameterized design of various types of beams and output the report of design in HTML format. Efficiency and reliability of design of beams are improved.

Safety Guided Design of Crew Return Vehicle in Concept Design Phase Using STAMP/STPA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakao, H.; Katahira, M.; Miyamoto, Y.; Leveson, N.

2012-01-01

In the concept development and design phase of a new space system, such as a Crew Vehicle, designers tend to focus on how to implement new technology. Designers also consider the difficulty of using the new technology and trade off several system design candidates. Then they choose an optimal design from the candidates. Safety should be a key aspect driving optimal concept design. However, in past concept design activities, safety analysis such as FTA has not used to drive the design because such analysis techniques focus on component failure and component failure cannot be considered in the concept design phase. The solution to these problems is to apply a new hazard analysis technique, called STAMP/STPA. STAMP/STPA defines safety as a control problem rather than a failure problem and identifies hazardous scenarios and their causes. Defining control flow is the essential in concept design phase. Therefore STAMP/STPA could be a useful tool to assess the safety of system candidates and to be part of the rationale for choosing a design as the baseline of the system. In this paper, we explain our case study of safety guided concept design using STPA, the new hazard analysis technique, and model-based specification technique on Crew Return Vehicle design and evaluate benefits of using STAMP/STPA in concept development phase.

Learning About Ares I from Monte Carlo Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, John M.; Hall, Charlie E.

2008-01-01

This paper addresses Monte Carlo simulation analyses that are being conducted to understand the behavior of the Ares I launch vehicle, and to assist with its design. After describing the simulation and modeling of Ares I, the paper addresses the process used to determine what simulations are necessary, and the parameters that are varied in order to understand how the Ares I vehicle will behave in flight. Outputs of these simulations furnish a significant group of design customers with data needed for the development of Ares I and of the Orion spacecraft that will ride atop Ares I. After listing the customers, examples of many of the outputs are described. Products discussed in this paper include those that support structural loads analysis, aerothermal analysis, flight control design, failure/abort analysis, determination of flight performance reserve, examination of orbit insertion accuracy, determination of the Upper Stage impact footprint, analysis of stage separation, analysis of launch probability, analysis of first stage recovery, thrust vector control and reaction control system design, liftoff drift analysis, communications analysis, umbilical release, acoustics, and design of jettison systems.

Design and Analysis of a Composite Tailcone for the XM-1002 Training Round

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-01

Design and Analysis of a Composite Tailcone for the XM-1002 Training Round by James M. Sands, James Garner, Peter Dehmer, Uday Vaidya...Department of the Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. Citation of manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an...Research Laboratory Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD 21005-5069 ARL-TR-4428 April 2008 Design and Analysis of a Composite Tailcone for the

Finite element analysis of a composite wheelchair wheel design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ortega, Rene

1994-01-01

The finite element analysis of a composite wheelchair wheel design is presented. The design is the result of a technology utilization request. The designer's intent is to soften the riding feeling by incorporating a mechanism attaching the wheel rim to the spokes that would allow considerable deflection upon compressive loads. A finite element analysis was conducted to verify proper structural function. Displacement and stress results are presented and conclusions are provided.

75 FR 32509 - Notice Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving Proposed No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-08

... explanation of the bases for the contention and a concise statement of the alleged facts or expert opinion... design bases. Revised analysis may either result in continued conformance with design bases or may change the design bases. If design basis changes result from a revised analysis, the specific design changes...

An example problem illustrating the application of the national lime association mixture design and testing protocol (MDTP) to ascertain engineering properties of lime-treated subgrades for mechanistic pavement design/analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-09-01

This document presents an example of mechanistic design and analysis using a mix design and : testing protocol. More specifically, it addresses the structural properties of lime-treated subgrade, : subbase, and base layers through mechanistic design ...

A CAD approach to magnetic bearing design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jeyaseelan, M.; Anand, D. K.; Kirk, J. A.

1988-01-01

A design methodology has been developed at the Magnetic Bearing Research Laboratory for designing magnetic bearings using a CAD approach. This is used in the algorithm of an interactive design software package. The package is a design tool developed to enable the designer to simulate the entire process of design and analysis of the system. Its capabilities include interactive input/modification of geometry, finding any possible saturation at critical sections of the system, and the design and analysis of a control system that stabilizes and maintains magnetic suspension.

Reasserting the Fundamentals of Systems Analysis and Design through the Rudiments of Artifacts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jafar, Musa; Babb, Jeffry

2012-01-01

In this paper we present an artifacts-based approach to teaching a senior level Object-Oriented Analysis and Design course. Regardless of the systems development methodology and process model, and in order to facilitate communication across the business modeling, analysis, design, construction and deployment disciplines, we focus on (1) the…

Developments in Cylindrical Shell Stability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Starnes, James H., Jr.

1998-01-01

Today high-performance computing systems and new analytical and numerical techniques enable engineers to explore the use of advanced materials for shell design. This paper reviews some of the historical developments of shell buckling analysis and design. The paper concludes by identifying key research directions for reliable and robust methods development in shell stability analysis and design.

The Ninevah Mission: A design summary for an unmanned mission to Venus, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The design summary for an unmanned mission to the planet Venus, with code name Ninevah, is presented. The design includes a Hohmann transfer trajectory analysis, propulsion trade study, an overview of the communication and instrumentation systems, power requirements, probe and lander analysis, and a weight and cost analysis.

Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis to Support Simulation-Based Design Under Uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Opgenoord, Max M. J.; Allaire, Douglas L.; Willcox, Karen E.

2016-09-12

Sensitivity analysis plays a critical role in quantifying uncertainty in the design of engineering systems. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis is often used to rank the importance of input factors, based on their contribution to the variance of the output quantity of interest. However, this analysis assumes that all input variability can be reduced to zero, which is typically not the case in a design setting. Distributional sensitivity analysis (DSA) instead treats the uncertainty reduction in the inputs as a random variable, and defines a variance-based sensitivity index function that characterizes the relative contribution to the output variance as amore » function of the amount of uncertainty reduction. This paper develops a computationally efficient implementation for the DSA formulation and extends it to include distributions commonly used in engineering design under uncertainty. Application of the DSA method to the conceptual design of a commercial jetliner demonstrates how the sensitivity analysis provides valuable information to designers and decision-makers on where and how to target uncertainty reduction efforts.« less

Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis to Support Simulation-Based Design Under Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Opgenoord, Max M. J.; Allaire, Douglas L.; Willcox, Karen E.

Sensitivity analysis plays a critical role in quantifying uncertainty in the design of engineering systems. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis is often used to rank the importance of input factors, based on their contribution to the variance of the output quantity of interest. However, this analysis assumes that all input variability can be reduced to zero, which is typically not the case in a design setting. Distributional sensitivity analysis (DSA) instead treats the uncertainty reduction in the inputs as a random variable, and defines a variance-based sensitivity index function that characterizes the relative contribution to the output variance as amore » function of the amount of uncertainty reduction. This paper develops a computationally efficient implementation for the DSA formulation and extends it to include distributions commonly used in engineering design under uncertainty. Application of the DSA method to the conceptual design of a commercial jetliner demonstrates how the sensitivity analysis provides valuable information to designers and decision-makers on where and how to target uncertainty reduction efforts.« less

Attitudinal Changes of the Student Teacher--A Further Analysis. An Example of an Orthogonal Comparisons Analysis Model Applied to Educational Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Courtney, E. Wayne

This report was designed to present an example of a research study involving the use of coefficients of orthogonal comparisons in analysis of variance tests of significance. A sample research report and analysis was included so as to lead the reader through the design steps. The sample study was designed to determine the extent of attitudinal…

Structural design and analysis of a Mach zero to five turbo-ramjet system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spoth, Kevin A.; Moses, Paul L.

1993-01-01

The paper discusses the structural design and analysis of a Mach zero to five turbo-ramjet propulsion system for a Mach five waverider-derived cruise vehicle. The level of analysis detail necessary for a credible conceptual design is shown. The results of a finite-element failure mode sizing analysis for the engine primary structure is presented. The importance of engine/airframe integration is also discussed.

Study of free-piston Stirling engine driven linear alternators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nasar, S. A.; Chen, C.

1987-01-01

The analysis, design and operation of single phase, single slot tubular permanent magnet linear alternator is presented. Included is the no-load and on-load magnetic field investigation, permanent magnet's leakage field analysis, parameter identification, design guidelines and an optimal design of a permanent magnet linear alternator. For analysis of the magnetic field, a simplified magnetic circuit is utilized. The analysis accounts for saturation, leakage and armature reaction.

Optimal cure cycle design for autoclave processing of thick composites laminates: A feasibility study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Jean W.

1985-01-01

The thermal analysis and the calculation of thermal sensitivity of a cure cycle in autoclave processing of thick composite laminates were studied. A finite element program for the thermal analysis and design derivatives calculation for temperature distribution and the degree of cure was developed and verified. It was found that the direct differentiation was the best approach for the thermal design sensitivity analysis. In addition, the approach of the direct differentiation provided time histories of design derivatives which are of great value to the cure cycle designers. The approach of direct differentiation is to be used for further study, i.e., the optimal cycle design.

Structural Analysis in a Conceptual Design Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padula, Sharon L.; Robinson, Jay H.; Eldred, Lloyd B.

2012-01-01

Supersonic aircraft designers must shape the outer mold line of the aircraft to improve multiple objectives, such as mission performance, cruise efficiency, and sonic-boom signatures. Conceptual designers have demonstrated an ability to assess these objectives for a large number of candidate designs. Other critical objectives and constraints, such as weight, fuel volume, aeroelastic effects, and structural soundness, are more difficult to address during the conceptual design process. The present research adds both static structural analysis and sizing to an existing conceptual design framework. The ultimate goal is to include structural analysis in the multidisciplinary optimization of a supersonic aircraft. Progress towards that goal is discussed and demonstrated.

Refined Genetic Algorithms for Polypeptide Structure Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-12-01

16 I I I. Algorithm Analysis, Design , and Implemen tation : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 18 3.1 Analysis...21 3.2 Algorithm Design and Implemen tation : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 22 3.2.1...26 IV. Exp erimen t Design

NDARC NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft. Appendix 5; Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Wayne

2017-01-01

The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) software is an aircraft system analysis tool that supports both conceptual design efforts and technology impact assessments. The principal tasks are to design (or size) a rotorcraft to meet specified requirements, including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) operation, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of conditions. For broad and lasting utility, it is important that the code have the capability to model general rotorcraft configurations, and estimate the performance and weights of advanced rotor concepts. The architecture of the NDARC code accommodates configuration flexibility, a hierarchy of models, and ultimately multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization. Initially the software is implemented with low-fidelity models, typically appropriate for the conceptual design environment. An NDARC job consists of one or more cases, each case optionally performing design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance calculation, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. For analysis tasks, the aircraft description can come from the sizing task, from a previous case or a previous NDARC job, or be independently generated (typically the description of an existing aircraft). The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. For each component, attributes such as performance, drag, and weight can be calculated; and the aircraft attributes are obtained from the sum of the component attributes. Description and analysis of conventional rotorcraft configurations is facilitated, while retaining the capability to model novel and advanced concepts. Specific rotorcraft configurations considered are single-main-rotor and tail-rotor helicopter, tandem helicopter, coaxial helicopter, and tiltrotor. The architecture of the code accommodates addition of new or higher-fidelity attribute models for a component, as well as addition of new components.

NDARC: NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft. Appendix 3; Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Wayne

2016-01-01

The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) software is an aircraft system analysis tool that supports both conceptual design efforts and technology impact assessments. The principal tasks are to design (or size) a rotorcraft to meet speci?ed requirements, including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) operation, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of conditions. For broad and lasting utility, it is important that the code have the capability to model general rotorcraft con?gurations, and estimate the performance and weights of advanced rotor concepts. The architecture of the NDARC code accommodates con?guration ?exibility, a hierarchy of models, and ultimately multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization. Initially the software is implemented with low-?delity models, typically appropriate for the conceptual design environment. An NDARC job consists of one or more cases, each case optionally performing design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy speci?ed design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance calculation, ?ight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. For analysis tasks, the aircraft description can come from the sizing task, from a previous case or a previous NDARC job, or be independently generated (typically the description of an existing aircraft). The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. For each component, attributes such as performance, drag, and weight can be calculated; and the aircraft attributes are obtained from the sum of the component attributes. Description and analysis of conventional rotorcraft con?gurations is facilitated, while retaining the capability to model novel and advanced concepts. Speci?c rotorcraft con?gurations considered are single-main-rotor and tail-rotor helicopter, tandem helicopter, coaxial helicopter, and tiltrotor. The architecture of the code accommodates addition of new or higher-?delity attribute models for a component, as well as addition of new components.

NDARC NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft - Input, Appendix 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Wayne

2016-01-01

The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) software is an aircraft system analysis tool that supports both conceptual design efforts and technology impact assessments. The principal tasks are to design (or size) a rotorcraft to meet specified requirements, including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) operation, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of conditions. For broad and lasting utility, it is important that the code have the capability to model general rotorcraft configurations, and estimate the performance and weights of advanced rotor concepts. The architecture of the NDARC code accommodates configuration exibility, a hierarchy of models, and ultimately multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization. Initially the software is implemented with low-fidelity models, typically appropriate for the conceptual design environment. An NDARC job consists of one or more cases, each case optionally performing design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance calculation, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. For analysis tasks, the aircraft description can come from the sizing task, from a previous case or a previous NDARC job, or be independently generated (typically the description of an existing aircraft). The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. For each component, attributes such as performance, drag, and weight can be calculated; and the aircraft attributes are obtained from the sum of the component attributes. Description and analysis of conventional rotorcraft configurations is facilitated, while retaining the capability to model novel and advanced concepts. Specific rotorcraft configurations considered are single-main-rotor and tail-rotor helicopter, tandem helicopter, coaxial helicopter, and tilt-rotor. The architecture of the code accommodates addition of new or higher-fidelity attribute models for a component, as well as addition of new components.

NDARC NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft. Appendix 6; Input

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Wayne

2017-01-01

The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) software is an aircraft system analysis tool that supports both conceptual design efforts and technology impact assessments. The principal tasks are to design (or size) a rotorcraft to meet specified requirements, including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) operation, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of conditions. For broad and lasting utility, it is important that the code have the capability to model general rotorcraft configurations, and estimate the performance and weights of advanced rotor concepts. The architecture of the NDARC code accommodates configuration flexibility, a hierarchy of models, and ultimately multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization. Initially the software is implemented with low-fidelity models, typically appropriate for the conceptual design environment. An NDARC job consists of one or more cases, each case optionally performing design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance calculation, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. For analysis tasks, the aircraft description can come from the sizing task, from a previous case or a previous NDARC job, or be independently generated (typically the description of an existing aircraft). The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. For each component, attributes such as performance, drag, and weight can be calculated; and the aircraft attributes are obtained from the sum of the component attributes. Description and analysis of conventional rotorcraft configurations is facilitated, while retaining the capability to model novel and advanced concepts. Specific rotorcraft configurations considered are single-main-rotor and tail-rotor helicopter, tandem helicopter, coaxial helicopter, and tiltrotor. The architecture of the code accommodates addition of new or higher-fidelity attribute models for a component, as well as addition of new components.

NDARC NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Wayne R.

2009-01-01

The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) software is an aircraft system analysis tool intended to support both conceptual design efforts and technology impact assessments. The principal tasks are to design (or size) a rotorcraft to meet specified requirements, including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) operation, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of conditions. For broad and lasting utility, it is important that the code have the capability to model general rotorcraft configurations, and estimate the performance and weights of advanced rotor concepts. The architecture of the NDARC code accommodates configuration flexibility; a hierarchy of models; and ultimately multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization. Initially the software is implemented with lowfidelity models, typically appropriate for the conceptual design environment. An NDARC job consists of one or more cases, each case optionally performing design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance calculation, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. For analysis tasks, the aircraft description can come from the sizing task, from a previous case or a previous NDARC job, or be independently generated (typically the description of an existing aircraft). The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. For each component, attributes such as performance, drag, and weight can be calculated; and the aircraft attributes are obtained from the sum of the component attributes. Description and analysis of conventional rotorcraft configurations is facilitated, while retaining the capability to model novel and advanced concepts. Specific rotorcraft configurations considered are single main-rotor and tailrotor helicopter; tandem helicopter; coaxial helicopter; and tiltrotors. The architecture of the code accommodates addition of new or higher-fidelity attribute models for a component, as well as addition of new components.

NDARC - NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Wayne

2015-01-01

The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) software is an aircraft system analysis tool that supports both conceptual design efforts and technology impact assessments. The principal tasks are to design (or size) a rotorcraft to meet specified requirements, including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) operation, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of conditions. For broad and lasting utility, it is important that the code have the capability to model general rotorcraft configurations, and estimate the performance and weights of advanced rotor concepts. The architecture of the NDARC code accommodates configuration flexibility, a hierarchy of models, and ultimately multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization. Initially the software is implemented with low-fidelity models, typically appropriate for the conceptual design environment. An NDARC job consists of one or more cases, each case optionally performing design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance calculation, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. For analysis tasks, the aircraft description can come from the sizing task, from a previous case or a previous NDARC job, or be independently generated (typically the description of an existing aircraft). The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. For each component, attributes such as performance, drag, and weight can be calculated; and the aircraft attributes are obtained from the sum of the component attributes. Description and analysis of conventional rotorcraft configurations is facilitated, while retaining the capability to model novel and advanced concepts. Specific rotorcraft configurations considered are single-main-rotor and tail-rotor helicopter, tandem helicopter, coaxial helicopter, and tiltrotor. The architecture of the code accommodates addition of new or higher-fidelity attribute models for a component, as well as addition of new components.

NDARC NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft Theory Appendix 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Wayne

2016-01-01

The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) software is an aircraft system analysis tool that supports both conceptual design efforts and technology impact assessments. The principal tasks are to design (or size) a rotorcraft to meet specified requirements, including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) operation, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of conditions. For broad and lasting utility, it is important that the code have the capability to model general rotorcraft configurations, and estimate the performance and weights of advanced rotor concepts. The architecture of the NDARC code accommodates configuration flexibility, a hierarchy of models, and ultimately multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization. Initially the software is implemented with low-fidelity models, typically appropriate for the conceptual design environment. An NDARC job consists of one or more cases, each case optionally performing design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance calculation, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. For analysis tasks, the aircraft description can come from the sizing task, from a previous case or a previous NDARC job, or be independently generated (typically the description of an existing aircraft). The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. For each component, attributes such as performance, drag, and weight can be calculated; and the aircraft attributes are obtained from the sum of the component attributes. Description and analysis of conventional rotorcraft configurations is facilitated, while retaining the capability to model novel and advanced concepts. Specific rotorcraft configurations considered are single-main-rotor and tail-rotor helicopter, tandem helicopter, coaxial helicopter, and tiltrotor. The architecture of the code accommodates addition of new or higher-fidelity attribute models for a component, as well as addition of new components.

Anthropometric Accommodation in Space Suit Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajulu, Sudhakar; Thaxton, Sherry

2007-01-01

Design requirements for next generation hardware are in process at NASA. Anthropometry requirements are given in terms of minimum and maximum sizes for critical dimensions that hardware must accommodate. These dimensions drive vehicle design and suit design, and implicitly have an effect on crew selection and participation. At this stage in the process, stakeholders such as cockpit and suit designers were asked to provide lists of dimensions that will be critical for their design. In addition, they were asked to provide technically feasible minimum and maximum ranges for these dimensions. Using an adjusted 1988 Anthropometric Survey of U.S. Army (ANSUR) database to represent a future astronaut population, the accommodation ranges provided by the suit critical dimensions were calculated. This project involved participation from the Anthropometry and Biomechanics facility (ABF) as well as suit designers, with suit designers providing expertise about feasible hardware dimensions and the ABF providing accommodation analysis. The initial analysis provided the suit design team with the accommodation levels associated with the critical dimensions provided early in the study. Additional outcomes will include a comparison of principal components analysis as an alternate method for anthropometric analysis.

Design and analysis of linear oscillatory single-phase permanent magnet generator for free-piston stirling engine systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jeong-Man; Choi, Jang-Young; Lee, Kyu-Seok; Lee, Sung-Ho

2017-05-01

This study focuses on the design and analysis of a linear oscillatory single-phase permanent magnet generator for free-piston stirling engine (FPSE) systems. In order to implement the design of linear oscillatory generator (LOG) for suitable FPSEs, we conducted electromagnetic analysis of LOGs with varying design parameters. Then, detent force analysis was conducted using assisted PM. Using the assisted PM gave us the advantage of using mechanical strength by detent force. To improve the efficiency, we conducted characteristic analysis of eddy-current loss with respect to the PM segment. Finally, the experimental result was analyzed to confirm the prediction of the FEA.

Integrated reflector antenna design and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zimmerman, M. L.; Lee, S. W.; Ni, S.; Christensen, M.; Wang, Y. M.

1993-01-01

Reflector antenna design is a mature field and most aspects were studied. However, of that most previous work is distinguished by the fact that it is narrow in scope, analyzing only a particular problem under certain conditions. Methods of analysis of this type are not useful for working on real-life problems since they can not handle the many and various types of perturbations of basic antenna design. The idea of an integrated design and analysis is proposed. By broadening the scope of the analysis, it becomes possible to deal with the intricacies attendant with modem reflector antenna design problems. The concept of integrated reflector antenna design is put forward. A number of electromagnetic problems related to reflector antenna design are investigated. Some of these show how tools for reflector antenna design are created. In particular, a method for estimating spillover loss for open-ended waveguide feeds is examined. The problem of calculating and optimizing beam efficiency (an important figure of merit in radiometry applications) is also solved. Other chapters deal with applications of this general analysis. The wide angle scan abilities of reflector antennas is examined and a design is proposed for the ATDRSS triband reflector antenna. The development of a general phased-array pattern computation program is discussed and how the concept of integrated design can be extended to other types of antennas is shown. The conclusions are contained in the final chapter.

Automated Simulation For Analysis And Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cantwell, E.; Shenk, Tim; Robinson, Peter; Upadhye, R.

1992-01-01

Design Assistant Workstation (DAWN) software being developed to facilitate simulation of qualitative and quantitative aspects of behavior of life-support system in spacecraft, chemical-processing plant, heating and cooling system of large building, or any of variety of systems including interacting process streams and processes. Used to analyze alternative design scenarios or specific designs of such systems. Expert system will automate part of design analysis: reason independently by simulating design scenarios and return to designer with overall evaluations and recommendations.

Design and analysis of tubular permanent magnet linear generator for small-scale wave energy converter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jeong-Man; Koo, Min-Mo; Jeong, Jae-Hoon; Hong, Keyyong; Cho, Il-Hyoung; Choi, Jang-Young

2017-05-01

This paper reports the design and analysis of a tubular permanent magnet linear generator (TPMLG) for a small-scale wave-energy converter. The analytical field computation is performed by applying a magnetic vector potential and a 2-D analytical model to determine design parameters. Based on analytical solutions, parametric analysis is performed to meet the design specifications of a wave-energy converter (WEC). Then, 2-D FEA is employed to validate the analytical method. Finally, the experimental result confirms the predictions of the analytical and finite element analysis (FEA) methods under regular and irregular wave conditions.

Analysis and topology optimization design of high-speed driving spindle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhilin; Yang, Hai

2018-04-01

The three-dimensional model of high-speed driving spindle is established by using SOLIDWORKS. The model is imported through the interface of ABAQUS, A finite element analysis model of high-speed driving spindle was established by using spring element to simulate bearing boundary condition. High-speed driving spindle for the static analysis, the spindle of the stress, strain and displacement nephogram, and on the basis of the results of the analysis on spindle for topology optimization, completed the lightweight design of high-speed driving spindle. The design scheme provides guidance for the design of axial parts of similar structures.

MOD-0A 200 kW wind turbine generator design and analysis report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, T. S.; Bodenschatz, C. A.; Eggers, A. G.; Hughes, P. S.; Lampe, R. F.; Lipner, M. H.; Schornhorst, J. R.

1980-08-01

The design, analysis, and initial performance of the MOD-OA 200 kW wind turbine generator at Clayton, NM is documented. The MOD-OA was designed and built to obtain operation and performance data and experience in utility environments. The project requirements, approach, system description, design requirements, design, analysis, system tests, installation, safety considerations, failure modes and effects analysis, data acquisition, and initial performance for the wind turbine are discussed. The design and analysis of the rotor, drive train, nacelle equipment, yaw drive mechanism and brake, tower, foundation, electricl system, and control systems are presented. The rotor includes the blades, hub, and pitch change mechanism. The drive train includes the low speed shaft, speed increaser, high speed shaft, and rotor brake. The electrical system includes the generator, switchgear, transformer, and utility connection. The control systems are the blade pitch, yaw, and generator control, and the safety system. Manual, automatic, and remote control are discussed. Systems analyses on dynamic loads and fatigue are presented.

MOD-0A 200 kW wind turbine generator design and analysis report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, T. S.; Bodenschatz, C. A.; Eggers, A. G.; Hughes, P. S.; Lampe, R. F.; Lipner, M. H.; Schornhorst, J. R.

1980-01-01

The design, analysis, and initial performance of the MOD-OA 200 kW wind turbine generator at Clayton, NM is documented. The MOD-OA was designed and built to obtain operation and performance data and experience in utility environments. The project requirements, approach, system description, design requirements, design, analysis, system tests, installation, safety considerations, failure modes and effects analysis, data acquisition, and initial performance for the wind turbine are discussed. The design and analysis of the rotor, drive train, nacelle equipment, yaw drive mechanism and brake, tower, foundation, electricl system, and control systems are presented. The rotor includes the blades, hub, and pitch change mechanism. The drive train includes the low speed shaft, speed increaser, high speed shaft, and rotor brake. The electrical system includes the generator, switchgear, transformer, and utility connection. The control systems are the blade pitch, yaw, and generator control, and the safety system. Manual, automatic, and remote control are discussed. Systems analyses on dynamic loads and fatigue are presented.

Coupled Solid Rocket Motor Ballistics and Trajectory Modeling for Higher Fidelity Launch Vehicle Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ables, Brett

2014-01-01

Multi-stage launch vehicles with solid rocket motors (SRMs) face design optimization challenges, especially when the mission scope changes frequently. Significant performance benefits can be realized if the solid rocket motors are optimized to the changing requirements. While SRMs represent a fixed performance at launch, rapid design iterations enable flexibility at design time, yielding significant performance gains. The streamlining and integration of SRM design and analysis can be achieved with improved analysis tools. While powerful and versatile, the Solid Performance Program (SPP) is not conducive to rapid design iteration. Performing a design iteration with SPP and a trajectory solver is a labor intensive process. To enable a better workflow, SPP, the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), and the interfaces between them have been improved and automated, and a graphical user interface (GUI) has been developed. The GUI enables real-time visual feedback of grain and nozzle design inputs, enforces parameter dependencies, removes redundancies, and simplifies manipulation of SPP and POST's numerous options. Automating the analysis also simplifies batch analyses and trade studies. Finally, the GUI provides post-processing, visualization, and comparison of results. Wrapping legacy high-fidelity analysis codes with modern software provides the improved interface necessary to enable rapid coupled SRM ballistics and vehicle trajectory analysis. Low cost trade studies demonstrate the sensitivities of flight performance metrics to propulsion characteristics. Incorporating high fidelity analysis from SPP into vehicle design reduces performance margins and improves reliability. By flying an SRM designed with the same assumptions as the rest of the vehicle, accurate comparisons can be made between competing architectures. In summary, this flexible workflow is a critical component to designing a versatile launch vehicle model that can accommodate a volatile mission scope.

TADS: A CFD-Based Turbomachinery Analysis and Design System with GUI: Methods and Results. 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koiro, M. J.; Myers, R. A.; Delaney, R. A.

1999-01-01

The primary objective of this study was the development of a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based turbomachinery airfoil analysis and design system, controlled by a Graphical User Interface (GUI). The computer codes resulting from this effort are referred to as TADS (Turbomachinery Analysis and Design System). This document is the Final Report describing the theoretical basis and analytical results from the TADS system developed under Task 10 of NASA Contract NAS3-27394, ADPAC System Coupling to Blade Analysis & Design System GUI, Phase II-Loss, Design and. Multi-stage Analysis. TADS couples a throughflow solver (ADPAC) with a quasi-3D blade-to-blade solver (RVCQ3D) or a 3-D solver with slip condition on the end walls (B2BADPAC) in an interactive package. Throughflow analysis and design capability was developed in ADPAC through the addition of blade force and blockage terms to the governing equations. A GUI was developed to simplify user input and automate the many tasks required to perform turbomachinery analysis and design. The coupling of the various programs was done in such a way that alternative solvers or grid generators could be easily incorporated into the TADS framework. Results of aerodynamic calculations using the TADS system are presented for a multistage compressor, a multistage turbine, two highly loaded fans, and several single stage compressor and turbine example cases.

System design of the Pioneer Venus spacecraft. Volume 3: Systems analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, J. N.

1973-01-01

The mission, systems, operations, ground systems, and reliability analysis of the Thor/Delta baseline design used for the Pioneer Space Probe are discussed. Tradeoff decisions concerning spin axis orientation, bus antenna design, communication system design, probe descent, and reduced science payload are analyzed. The reliability analysis is made for the probe bus mission, large probe mission, and small probe mission. Detailed mission sequences were established to identify critical areas and provide phasing of critical operation.

Preliminary design package for prototype solar heating system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

A summary is given of the preliminary analysis and design activity on solar heating systems. The analysis was made without site specific data other than weather; therefore, the results indicate performance expected under these special conditions. Major items include system candidates, design approaches, trade studies and other special data required to evaluate the preliminary analysis and design. The program calls for the development and delivery of eight prototype solar heating and cooling systems for installation and operational test.

Design/Analysis of the JWST ISIM Bonded Joints for Survivability at Cryogenic Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartoszyk, Andrew; Johnston, John; Kaprielian, Charles; Kuhn, Jonathan; Kunt, Cengiz; Rodini,Benjamin; Young, Daniel

1990-01-01

A major design and analysis challenge for the JWST ISIM structure is thermal survivability of metal/composite bonded joints below the cryogenic temperature of 30K (-405 F). Current bonded joint concepts include internal invar plug fittings, external saddle titanium/invar fittings and composite gusset/clip joints all bonded to M55J/954-6 and T300/954-6 hybrid composite tubes (75mm square). Analytical experience and design work done on metal/composite bonded joints at temperatures below that of liquid nitrogen are limited and important analysis tools, material properties, and failure criteria for composites at cryogenic temperatures are sparse in the literature. Increasing this challenge is the difficulty in testing for these required tools and properties at cryogenic temperatures. To gain confidence in analyzing and designing the ISIM joints, a comprehensive joint development test program has been planned and is currently running. The test program is designed to produce required analytical tools and develop a composite failure criterion for bonded joint strengths at cryogenic temperatures. Finite element analysis is used to design simple test coupons that simulate anticipated stress states in the flight joints; subsequently the test results are used to correlate the analysis technique for the final design of the bonded joints. In this work, we present an overview of the analysis and test methodology, current results, and working joint designs based on developed techniques and properties.

Simultaneous Aerodynamic and Structural Design Optimization (SASDO) for a 3-D Wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gumbert, Clyde R.; Hou, Gene J.-W.; Newman, Perry A.

2001-01-01

The formulation and implementation of an optimization method called Simultaneous Aerodynamic and Structural Design Optimization (SASDO) is shown as an extension of the Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) method. It is extended by the inclusion of structure element sizing parameters as design variables and Finite Element Method (FEM) analysis responses as constraints. The method aims to reduce the computational expense. incurred in performing shape and sizing optimization using state-of-the-art Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flow analysis, FEM structural analysis and sensitivity analysis tools. SASDO is applied to a simple. isolated, 3-D wing in inviscid flow. Results show that the method finds the saine local optimum as a conventional optimization method with some reduction in the computational cost and without significant modifications; to the analysis tools.

Design study of wind turbines 50 kW to 3000 kW for electric utility applications. Volume 3: Supplementary design and analysis tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Additional design and analysis data are provided to supplement the results of the two parallel design study efforts. The key results of the three supplemental tasks investigated are: (1) The velocity duration profile has a significant effect in determining the optimum wind turbine design parameters and the energy generation cost. (2) Modest increases in capacity factor can be achieved with small increases in energy generation costs and capital costs. (3) Reinforced concrete towers that are esthetically attractive can be designed and built at a cost comparable to those for steel truss towers. The approach used, method of analysis, assumptions made, design requirements, and the results for each task are discussed in detail.

29 CFR 1910.119 - Process safety management of highly hazardous chemicals.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... complexity of the process will influence the decision as to the appropriate PHA methodology to use. All PHA... process hazard analysis in sufficient detail to support the analysis. (3) Information pertaining to the...) Relief system design and design basis; (E) Ventilation system design; (F) Design codes and standards...

29 CFR 1910.119 - Process safety management of highly hazardous chemicals.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... complexity of the process will influence the decision as to the appropriate PHA methodology to use. All PHA... process hazard analysis in sufficient detail to support the analysis. (3) Information pertaining to the...) Relief system design and design basis; (E) Ventilation system design; (F) Design codes and standards...

Demonstrating Empathy: A Phenomenological Study of Instructional Designers Making Instructional Strategy Decisions for Adult Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vann, Linda S.

2017-01-01

Instructional designers are tasked with making instructional strategy decisions to facilitate achievement of learning outcomes as part of their professional responsibilities. While the instructional design process includes learner analysis, that analysis alone does not embody opportunities to assist instructional designers with demonstrations of…

An Example of Risk Informed Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banke, Rick; Grant, Warren; Wilson, Paul

2014-01-01

NASA Engineering requested a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to compare the difference in the risk of Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM) between different designs of a fluid assembly. They were concerned that the configuration favored by the design team was more susceptible to leakage than a second proposed design, but realized that a quantitative analysis to compare the risks between the two designs might strengthen their argument. The analysis showed that while the second design did help improve the probability of LOC, it did not help from a probability of LOM perspective. This drove the analysis team to propose a minor design change that would drive the probability of LOM down considerably. The analysis also demonstrated that there was another major risk driver that was not immediately obvious from a typical engineering study of the design and was therefore unexpected. None of the proposed alternatives were addressing this risk. This type of trade study demonstrates the importance of performing a PRA in order to completely understand a system's design. It allows managers to use risk as another one of the commodities (e.g., mass, cost, schedule, fault tolerance) that can be traded early in the design of a new system.

Supporting Scientific Analysis within Collaborative Problem Solving Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Velvin R.; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Collaborative problem solving environments for scientists should contain the analysis tools the scientists require in addition to the remote collaboration tools used for general communication. Unfortunately, most scientific analysis tools have been designed for a "stand-alone mode" and cannot be easily modified to work well in a collaborative environment. This paper addresses the questions, "What features are desired in a scientific analysis tool contained within a collaborative environment?", "What are the tool design criteria needed to provide these features?", and "What support is required from the architecture to support these design criteria?." First, the features of scientific analysis tools that are important for effective analysis in collaborative environments are listed. Next, several design criteria for developing analysis tools that will provide these features are presented. Then requirements for the architecture to support these design criteria are listed. Sonic proposed architectures for collaborative problem solving environments are reviewed and their capabilities to support the specified design criteria are discussed. A deficiency in the most popular architecture for remote application sharing, the ITU T. 120 architecture, prevents it from supporting highly interactive, dynamic, high resolution graphics. To illustrate that the specified design criteria can provide a highly effective analysis tool within a collaborative problem solving environment, a scientific analysis tool that contains the specified design criteria has been integrated into a collaborative environment and tested for effectiveness. The tests were conducted in collaborations between remote sites in the US and between remote sites on different continents. The tests showed that the tool (a tool for the visual analysis of computer simulations of physics) was highly effective for both synchronous and asynchronous collaborative analyses. The important features provided by the tool (and made possible by the specified design criteria) are: 1. The tool provides highly interactive, dynamic, high resolution, 3D graphics. 2. All remote scientists can view the same dynamic, high resolution, 3D scenes of the analysis as the analysis is being conducted. 3. The responsiveness of the tool is nearly identical to the responsiveness of the tool in a stand-alone mode. 4. The scientists can transfer control of the analysis between themselves. 5. Any analysis session or segment of an analysis session, whether done individually or collaboratively, can be recorded and posted on the Web for other scientists or students to download and play in either a collaborative or individual mode. 6. The scientist or student who downloaded the session can, individually or collaboratively, modify or extend the session with his/her own "what if" analysis of the data and post his/her version of the analysis back onto the Web. 7. The peak network bandwidth used in the collaborative sessions is only 1K bit/second even though the scientists at all sites are viewing high resolution (1280 x 1024 pixels), dynamic, 3D scenes of the analysis. The links between the specified design criteria and these performance features are presented.

Application of Cognitive Task Analysis in User Requirements and Prototype Design Presentation/Briefing

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-10-01

AFRL-HE-WP-TP-2005-0030 AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY Application of Cognitive Task Analysis in User Requirements and Prototype Design Presentation...TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA8650-04-C-6406 Application of Cognitive Task Analysis in User Requirements 5b.GRANTNUMBER and Prototype...maintainer experience 21 21 Questions & Answers Application of Cognitive Task Analysis in User Requirements Definition and Prototype Design Christopher Curtis

Improvements in surface singularity analysis and design methods. [applicable to airfoils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bristow, D. R.

1979-01-01

The coupling of the combined source vortex distribution of Green's potential flow function with contemporary numerical techniques is shown to provide accurate, efficient, and stable solutions to subsonic inviscid analysis and design problems for multi-element airfoils. The analysis problem is solved by direct calculation of the surface singularity distribution required to satisfy the flow tangency boundary condition. The design or inverse problem is solved by an iteration process. In this process, the geometry and the associated pressure distribution are iterated until the pressure distribution most nearly corresponding to the prescribed design distribution is obtained. Typically, five iteration cycles are required for convergence. A description of the analysis and design method is presented, along with supporting examples.

Multidisciplinary Optimization Methods for Aircraft Preliminary Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kroo, Ilan; Altus, Steve; Braun, Robert; Gage, Peter; Sobieski, Ian

1994-01-01

This paper describes a research program aimed at improved methods for multidisciplinary design and optimization of large-scale aeronautical systems. The research involves new approaches to system decomposition, interdisciplinary communication, and methods of exploiting coarse-grained parallelism for analysis and optimization. A new architecture, that involves a tight coupling between optimization and analysis, is intended to improve efficiency while simplifying the structure of multidisciplinary, computation-intensive design problems involving many analysis disciplines and perhaps hundreds of design variables. Work in two areas is described here: system decomposition using compatibility constraints to simplify the analysis structure and take advantage of coarse-grained parallelism; and collaborative optimization, a decomposition of the optimization process to permit parallel design and to simplify interdisciplinary communication requirements.

Advanced Field Artillery System (AFAS) Future Armored Resupply Vehicle (FARV) Simulation Feasibility Analysis Study (FAS). Appendix C-F. Revision 1.0

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-07-18

09 Software Product Training 3 .4 .11 Physical Cues Segment Development3 .01 Technical Management .02 SW Requirements Analysis .03 Preliminary Design...Mission Planning Subsystem Development3 .01 Technical Management .02 SW Requirements Analysis .03 Preliminary Design - .04 Detailed Design .05 Code & CSU

Multi-mission space vehicle subsystem analysis tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kordon, M.; Wood, E.

2003-01-01

Spacecraft engineers often rely on specialized simulation tools to facilitate the analysis, design and operation of space systems. Unfortunately these tools are often designed for one phase of a single mission and cannot be easily adapted to other phases or other misions. The Multi-Mission Pace Vehicle Susbsystem Analysis Tools are designed to provide a solution to this problem.

78 FR 24007 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Designation of Critical Habitat for Eriogonum codium

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-23

... analysis of the designation of critical habitat. In order to consider economic impacts, we have prepared an analysis of the economic impacts of the critical habitat designations and related factors. We announced the availability of the draft economic analysis (DEA) in the May 15, 2012, proposed rule (77 FR 28704), allowing...

Comparative Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-11-01

differential qualita- tive (DQ) analysis, which solves the task, providing explanations suitable for use by design systems, automated diagnosis, intelligent...solves the task, providing explanations suitable for use by design systems, automated diagnosis, intelligent tutoring systems, and explanation based...comparative analysis as an important component; the explanation is used in many different ways. * One way method of automated design is the principlvd

A Preliminary Study on Gender Differences in Studying Systems Analysis and Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Fion S. L.; Wong, Kelvin C. K.

2017-01-01

Systems analysis and design is a crucial task in system development and is included in a typical information systems programme as a core course. This paper presented a preliminary study on gender differences in studying a systems analysis and design course of an undergraduate programme. Results indicated that male students outperformed female…

Evidence-based mapping of design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis: a systematic review and evidence synthesis.

PubMed

Althuis, Michelle D; Weed, Douglas L; Frankenfeld, Cara L

2014-07-23

Assessment of design heterogeneity conducted prior to meta-analysis is infrequently reported; it is often presented post hoc to explain statistical heterogeneity. However, design heterogeneity determines the mix of included studies and how they are analyzed in a meta-analysis, which in turn can importantly influence the results. The goal of this work is to introduce ways to improve the assessment and reporting of design heterogeneity prior to statistical summarization of epidemiologic studies. In this paper, we use an assessment of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) as an example to show how a technique called 'evidence mapping' can be used to organize studies and evaluate design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis.. Employing a systematic and reproducible approach, we evaluated the following elements across 11 selected cohort studies: variation in definitions of SSB, T2D, and co-variables, design features and population characteristics associated with specific definitions of SSB, and diversity in modeling strategies. Evidence mapping strategies effectively organized complex data and clearly depicted design heterogeneity. For example, across 11 studies of SSB and T2D, 7 measured diet only once (with 7 to 16 years of disease follow-up), 5 included primarily low SSB consumers, and 3 defined the study variable (SSB) as consumption of either sugar or artificially-sweetened beverages. This exercise also identified diversity in analysis strategies, such as adjustment for 11 to 17 co-variables and a large degree of fluctuation in SSB-T2D risk estimates depending on variables selected for multivariable models (2 to 95% change in the risk estimate from the age-adjusted model). Meta-analysis seeks to understand heterogeneity in addition to computing a summary risk estimate. This strategy effectively documents design heterogeneity, thus improving the practice of meta-analysis by aiding in: 1) protocol and analysis planning, 2) transparent reporting of differences in study designs, and 3) interpretation of pooled estimates. We recommend expanding the practice of meta-analysis reporting to include a table that summarizes design heterogeneity. This would provide readers with more evidence to interpret the summary risk estimates.

Evidence-based mapping of design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis: a systematic review and evidence synthesis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Assessment of design heterogeneity conducted prior to meta-analysis is infrequently reported; it is often presented post hoc to explain statistical heterogeneity. However, design heterogeneity determines the mix of included studies and how they are analyzed in a meta-analysis, which in turn can importantly influence the results. The goal of this work is to introduce ways to improve the assessment and reporting of design heterogeneity prior to statistical summarization of epidemiologic studies. Methods In this paper, we use an assessment of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) as an example to show how a technique called ‘evidence mapping’ can be used to organize studies and evaluate design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis.. Employing a systematic and reproducible approach, we evaluated the following elements across 11 selected cohort studies: variation in definitions of SSB, T2D, and co-variables, design features and population characteristics associated with specific definitions of SSB, and diversity in modeling strategies. Results Evidence mapping strategies effectively organized complex data and clearly depicted design heterogeneity. For example, across 11 studies of SSB and T2D, 7 measured diet only once (with 7 to 16 years of disease follow-up), 5 included primarily low SSB consumers, and 3 defined the study variable (SSB) as consumption of either sugar or artificially-sweetened beverages. This exercise also identified diversity in analysis strategies, such as adjustment for 11 to 17 co-variables and a large degree of fluctuation in SSB-T2D risk estimates depending on variables selected for multivariable models (2 to 95% change in the risk estimate from the age-adjusted model). Conclusions Meta-analysis seeks to understand heterogeneity in addition to computing a summary risk estimate. This strategy effectively documents design heterogeneity, thus improving the practice of meta-analysis by aiding in: 1) protocol and analysis planning, 2) transparent reporting of differences in study designs, and 3) interpretation of pooled estimates. We recommend expanding the practice of meta-analysis reporting to include a table that summarizes design heterogeneity. This would provide readers with more evidence to interpret the summary risk estimates. PMID:25055879

Software for quantitative analysis of radiotherapy: overview, requirement analysis and design solutions.

PubMed

Zhang, Lanlan; Hub, Martina; Mang, Sarah; Thieke, Christian; Nix, Oliver; Karger, Christian P; Floca, Ralf O

2013-06-01

Radiotherapy is a fast-developing discipline which plays a major role in cancer care. Quantitative analysis of radiotherapy data can improve the success of the treatment and support the prediction of outcome. In this paper, we first identify functional, conceptional and general requirements on a software system for quantitative analysis of radiotherapy. Further we present an overview of existing radiotherapy analysis software tools and check them against the stated requirements. As none of them could meet all of the demands presented herein, we analyzed possible conceptional problems and present software design solutions and recommendations to meet the stated requirements (e.g. algorithmic decoupling via dose iterator pattern; analysis database design). As a proof of concept we developed a software library "RTToolbox" following the presented design principles. The RTToolbox is available as open source library and has already been tested in a larger-scale software system for different use cases. These examples demonstrate the benefit of the presented design principles. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study designs, use of statistical tests, and statistical analysis software choice in 2015: Results from two Pakistani monthly Medline indexed journals.

PubMed

Shaikh, Masood Ali

2017-09-01

Assessment of research articles in terms of study designs used, statistical tests applied and the use of statistical analysis programmes help determine research activity profile and trends in the country. In this descriptive study, all original articles published by Journal of Pakistan Medical Association (JPMA) and Journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan (JCPSP), in the year 2015 were reviewed in terms of study designs used, application of statistical tests, and the use of statistical analysis programmes. JPMA and JCPSP published 192 and 128 original articles, respectively, in the year 2015. Results of this study indicate that cross-sectional study design, bivariate inferential statistical analysis entailing comparison between two variables/groups, and use of statistical software programme SPSS to be the most common study design, inferential statistical analysis, and statistical analysis software programmes, respectively. These results echo previously published assessment of these two journals for the year 2014.

Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Volume 1: Program user's guide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Scheil, Christine M.; Petrosky, Lyman J.

1993-03-01

A Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine system design analysis tool is required to support current and future Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) propulsion and vehicle design studies. Currently available NTP engine design models are those developed during the NERVA program in the 1960's and early 1970's and are highly unique to that design or are modifications of current liquid propulsion system design models. To date, NTP engine-based liquid design models lack integrated design of key NTP engine design features in the areas of reactor, shielding, multi-propellant capability, and multi-redundant pump feed fuel systems. Additionally, since the SEI effort is in the initial development stage, a robust, verified NTP analysis design tool could be of great use to the community. This effort developed an NTP engine system design analysis program (tool), known as the Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS) program, to support ongoing and future engine system and stage design study efforts. In this effort, Science Applications International Corporation's (SAIC) NTP version of the Expanded Liquid Engine Simulation (ELES) program was modified extensively to include Westinghouse Electric Corporation's near-term solid-core reactor design model. The ELES program has extensive capability to conduct preliminary system design analysis of liquid rocket systems and vehicles. The program is modular in nature and is versatile in terms of modeling state-of-the-art component and system options as discussed. The Westinghouse reactor design model, which was integrated in the NESS program, is based on the near-term solid-core ENABLER NTP reactor design concept. This program is now capable of accurately modeling (characterizing) a complete near-term solid-core NTP engine system in great detail, for a number of design options, in an efficient manner. The following discussion summarizes the overall analysis methodology, key assumptions, and capabilities associated with the NESS presents an example problem, and compares the results to related NTP engine system designs. Initial installation instructions and program disks are in Volume 2 of the NESS Program User's Guide.

Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Volume 1: Program user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Scheil, Christine M.; Petrosky, Lyman J.

1993-01-01

A Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine system design analysis tool is required to support current and future Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) propulsion and vehicle design studies. Currently available NTP engine design models are those developed during the NERVA program in the 1960's and early 1970's and are highly unique to that design or are modifications of current liquid propulsion system design models. To date, NTP engine-based liquid design models lack integrated design of key NTP engine design features in the areas of reactor, shielding, multi-propellant capability, and multi-redundant pump feed fuel systems. Additionally, since the SEI effort is in the initial development stage, a robust, verified NTP analysis design tool could be of great use to the community. This effort developed an NTP engine system design analysis program (tool), known as the Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS) program, to support ongoing and future engine system and stage design study efforts. In this effort, Science Applications International Corporation's (SAIC) NTP version of the Expanded Liquid Engine Simulation (ELES) program was modified extensively to include Westinghouse Electric Corporation's near-term solid-core reactor design model. The ELES program has extensive capability to conduct preliminary system design analysis of liquid rocket systems and vehicles. The program is modular in nature and is versatile in terms of modeling state-of-the-art component and system options as discussed. The Westinghouse reactor design model, which was integrated in the NESS program, is based on the near-term solid-core ENABLER NTP reactor design concept. This program is now capable of accurately modeling (characterizing) a complete near-term solid-core NTP engine system in great detail, for a number of design options, in an efficient manner. The following discussion summarizes the overall analysis methodology, key assumptions, and capabilities associated with the NESS presents an example problem, and compares the results to related NTP engine system designs. Initial installation instructions and program disks are in Volume 2 of the NESS Program User's Guide.

Fundamentals of Digital Engineering: Designing for Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katz, R.; Day, John H. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The concept of designing for reliability will be introduced along with a brief overview of reliability, redundancy and traditional methods of fault tolerance is presented, as applied to current logic devices. The fundamentals of advanced circuit design and analysis techniques will be the primary focus. The introduction will cover the definitions of key device parameters and how analysis is used to prove circuit correctness. Basic design techniques such as synchronous vs asynchronous design, metastable state resolution time/arbiter design, and finite state machine structure/implementation will be reviewed. Advanced topics will be explored such as skew-tolerant circuit design, the use of triple-modular redundancy and circuit hazards, device transients and preventative circuit design, lock-up states in finite state machines generated by logic synthesizers, device transient characteristics, radiation mitigation techniques. worst-case analysis, the use of timing analyzer and simulators, and others. Case studies and lessons learned from spaceflight designs will be given as examples

A phase II flexible screening design allowing for interim analysis and comparison with historical control.

PubMed

Wu, Wenting; Bot, Brian; Hu, Yan; Geyer, Susan M; Sargent, Daniel J

2013-07-01

Sargent and Goldberg [1] proposed a randomized phase II flexible screening design (SG design) which took multiple characteristics of candidate regimens into consideration in selecting a regimen for further phase III testing. In this paper, we extend the SG design by including provisions for an interim analysis and/or a comparison to a historical control. By including a comparison with a historical control, a modified SG design not only identifies a more promising treatment but also assures that the regimen has a clinically meaningful level of efficacy as compared to a historical control. By including an interim analysis, a modified SG design could reduce the number of patients exposed to inferior treatment regimens. When compared to the original SG design, the modified designs increase the sample size moderately, but expand the utility of the flexible screening design substantially. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The vehicle design evaluation program - A computer-aided design procedure for transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, B. H.; Kruse, G. S.; Schrader, O. E.

1977-01-01

The vehicle design evaluation program is described. This program is a computer-aided design procedure that provides a vehicle synthesis capability for vehicle sizing, external load analysis, structural analysis, and cost evaluation. The vehicle sizing subprogram provides geometry, weight, and balance data for aircraft using JP, hydrogen, or methane fuels. The structural synthesis subprogram uses a multistation analysis for aerodynamic surfaces and fuselages to develop theoretical weights and geometric dimensions. The parts definition subprogram uses the geometric data from the structural analysis and develops the predicted fabrication dimensions, parts material raw stock buy requirements, and predicted actual weights. The cost analysis subprogram uses detail part data in conjunction with standard hours, realization factors, labor rates, and material data to develop the manufacturing costs. The program is used to evaluate overall design effects on subsonic commercial type aircraft due to parameter variations.

Single-case research design in pediatric psychology: considerations regarding data analysis.

PubMed

Cohen, Lindsey L; Feinstein, Amanda; Masuda, Akihiko; Vowles, Kevin E

2014-03-01

Single-case research allows for an examination of behavior and can demonstrate the functional relation between intervention and outcome in pediatric psychology. This review highlights key assumptions, methodological and design considerations, and options for data analysis. Single-case methodology and guidelines are reviewed with an in-depth focus on visual and statistical analyses. Guidelines allow for the careful evaluation of design quality and visual analysis. A number of statistical techniques have been introduced to supplement visual analysis, but to date, there is no consensus on their recommended use in single-case research design. Single-case methodology is invaluable for advancing pediatric psychology science and practice, and guidelines have been introduced to enhance the consistency, validity, and reliability of these studies. Experts generally agree that visual inspection is the optimal method of analysis in single-case design; however, statistical approaches are becoming increasingly evaluated and used to augment data interpretation.

Canister Storage Building (CSB) Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CROWE, R.D.; PIEPHO, M.G.

2000-03-23

This document provided the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, Annex A, ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report''. All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques

A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

Proceedings of the 1983 SPC/IREAPS Technical Symposium: Volume 1, Improving Shipbuilding Productivity. Held in Boston, MA on 23-25 August 1983

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-25

currently available Westinghouse CAE capabilities include plant layout, piping design, piping analysis , support/hanger design, and drawing preparation. The...considerations involved with the design and analysis of piping and support systems and space management in nuclear power plants are very similar to...piping analysis system can obtain input defini- tion data either from the plant modeling system or from piping drawings (for systems not designed using

Program Aids Design Of Fluid-Circulating Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bacskay, Allen; Dalee, Robert

1992-01-01

Computer Aided Systems Engineering and Analysis (CASE/A) program is interactive software tool for trade study and analysis, designed to increase productivity during all phases of systems engineering. Graphics-based command-driven software package provides user-friendly computing environment in which engineer analyzes performance and interface characteristics of ECLS/ATC system. Useful during all phases of spacecraft-design program, from initial conceptual design trade studies to actual flight, including pre-flight prediction and in-flight analysis of anomalies. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Structured Analysis of the Logistic Support Analysis (LSA) Task, ’Integrated Logistic Support (ILS) Assessment Maintenance Planning E-1 Element’ (APJ 966-204)

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-10-01

Structured Analysis involves building a logical (non-physical) model of a system, using graphic techniques which enable users, analysts, and designers to... Design uses tools, especially graphic ones, to render systems readily understandable. 8 Ř. Structured Design offers a set of strategies for...in the overall systems design process, and an overview of the assessment procedures, as well as a guide to the overall assessment. 20. DISTRIBUTION

An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Voss, Luke; Feather, Martin; Cornford, Steve

2005-01-01

This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

Design, Development and Analysis of Centrifugal Blower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baloni, Beena Devendra; Channiwala, Salim Abbasbhai; Harsha, Sugnanam Naga Ramannath

2018-06-01

Centrifugal blowers are widely used turbomachines equipment in all kinds of modern and domestic life. Manufacturing of blowers seldom follow an optimum design solution for individual blower. Although centrifugal blowers are developed as highly efficient machines, design is still based on various empirical and semi empirical rules proposed by fan designers. There are different methodologies used to design the impeller and other components of blowers. The objective of present study is to study explicit design methodologies and tracing unified design to get better design point performance. This unified design methodology is based more on fundamental concepts and minimum assumptions. Parametric study is also carried out for the effect of design parameters on pressure ratio and their interdependency in the design. The code is developed based on a unified design using C programming. Numerical analysis is carried out to check the flow parameters inside the blower. Two blowers, one based on the present design and other on industrial design, are developed with a standard OEM blower manufacturing unit. A comparison of both designs is done based on experimental performance analysis as per IS standard. The results suggest better efficiency and more flow rate for the same pressure head in case of the present design compared with industrial one.

Analysis of Design Parameters Effects on Vibration Characteristics of Fluidlastic Isolators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Jing-hui; Cheng, Qi-you

2017-07-01

The control of vibration in helicopters which consists of reducing vibration levels below the acceptable limit is one of the key problems. The fluidlastic isolators become more and more widely used because the fluids are non-toxic, non-corrosive, nonflammable, and compatible with most elastomers and adhesives. In the field of the fluidlastic isolators design, the selection of design parameters is very important to obtain efficient vibration-suppressed. Aiming at getting the effect of design parameters on the property of fluidlastic isolator, a dynamic equation is set up based on the theory of dynamics. And the dynamic analysis is carried out. The influences of design parameters on the property of fluidlastic isolator are calculated. Dynamic analysis results have shown that fluidlastic isolator can reduce the vibration effectively. Analysis results also showed that the design parameters such as the fluid density, viscosity coefficient, stiffness (K1 and K2) and loss coefficient have obvious influence on the performance of isolator. The efficient vibration-suppressed can be obtained by the design optimization of parameters.

Design and Analysis of Tooth Impact Test Rig for Spur Gear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghazali, Wafiuddin Bin Md; Aziz, Ismail Ali Bin Abdul; Daing Idris, Daing Mohamad Nafiz Bin; Ismail, Nurazima Binti; Sofian, Azizul Helmi Bin

2016-02-01

This paper is about the design and analysis of a prototype of tooth impact test rig for spur gear. The test rig was fabricated and analysis was conducted to study its’ limitation and capabilities. The design of the rig is analysed to ensure that there will be no problem occurring during the test and reliable data can be obtained. From the result of the analysis, the maximum amount of load that can be applied, the factor of safety of the machine, the stresses on the test rig parts were determined. This is important in the design consideration of the test rig. The materials used for the fabrication of the test rig were also discussed and analysed. MSC Nastran Patran software was used to analyse the model, which was designed by using SolidWorks 2014 software. Based from the results, there were limitations found from the initial design and the test rig design needs to be improved in order for the test rig to operate properly.

Matches, Mismatches, and Methods: Multiple-View Workflows for Energy Portfolio Analysis.

PubMed

Brehmer, Matthew; Ng, Jocelyn; Tate, Kevin; Munzner, Tamara

2016-01-01

The energy performance of large building portfolios is challenging to analyze and monitor, as current analysis tools are not scalable or they present derived and aggregated data at too coarse of a level. We conducted a visualization design study, beginning with a thorough work domain analysis and a characterization of data and task abstractions. We describe generalizable visual encoding design choices for time-oriented data framed in terms of matches and mismatches, as well as considerations for workflow design. Our designs address several research questions pertaining to scalability, view coordination, and the inappropriateness of line charts for derived and aggregated data due to a combination of data semantics and domain convention. We also present guidelines relating to familiarity and trust, as well as methodological considerations for visualization design studies. Our designs were adopted by our collaborators and incorporated into the design of an energy analysis software application that will be deployed to tens of thousands of energy workers in their client base.

Railroad Classification Yard Technology Manual. Volume I : Yard Design Methods

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-02-01

This volume documents the procedures and methods associated with the design of railroad classification yards. Subjects include: site location, economic analysis, yard capacity analysis, design of flat yards, overall configuration of hump yards, hump ...

Researcher Biographies

Science.gov Websites

interest: mechanical system design sensitivity analysis and optimization of linear and nonlinear structural systems, reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization, computational methods in committee member, ISSMO; Associate Editor, Mechanics Based Design of Structures and Machines; Associate

Modeling Tools for Propulsion Analysis and Computational Fluid Dynamics on the Internet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muss, J. A.; Johnson, C. W.; Gotchy, M. B.

2000-01-01

The existing RocketWeb(TradeMark) Internet Analysis System (httr)://www.iohnsonrockets.com/rocketweb) provides an integrated set of advanced analysis tools that can be securely accessed over the Internet. Since these tools consist of both batch and interactive analysis codes, the system includes convenient methods for creating input files and evaluating the resulting data. The RocketWeb(TradeMark) system also contains many features that permit data sharing which, when further developed, will facilitate real-time, geographically diverse, collaborative engineering within a designated work group. Adding work group management functionality while simultaneously extending and integrating the system's set of design and analysis tools will create a system providing rigorous, controlled design development, reducing design cycle time and cost.

Computational electronics and electromagnetics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shang, C. C.

The Computational Electronics and Electromagnetics thrust area at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory serves as the focal point for engineering R&D activities for developing computer-based design, analysis, and tools for theory. Key representative applications include design of particle accelerator cells and beamline components; engineering analysis and design of high-power components, photonics, and optoelectronics circuit design; EMI susceptibility analysis; and antenna synthesis. The FY-96 technology-base effort focused code development on (1) accelerator design codes; (2) 3-D massively parallel, object-oriented time-domain EM codes; (3) material models; (4) coupling and application of engineering tools for analysis and design of high-power components; (5) 3-D spectral-domainmore » CEM tools; and (6) enhancement of laser drilling codes. Joint efforts with the Power Conversion Technologies thrust area include development of antenna systems for compact, high-performance radar, in addition to novel, compact Marx generators. 18 refs., 25 figs., 1 tab.« less

Turning up the heat on aircraft structures. [design and analysis for high-temperature conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dobyns, Alan; Saff, Charles; Johns, Robert

1992-01-01

An overview is presented of the current effort in design and development of aircraft structures to achieve the lowest cost for best performance. Enhancements in this area are focused on integrated design, improved design analysis tools, low-cost fabrication techniques, and more sophisticated test methods. 3D CAD/CAM data are becoming the method through which design, manufacturing, and engineering communicate.

Design Through Analysis (DTA) roadmap vision.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blacker, Teddy Dean; Adams, Charles R.; Hoffman, Edward L.

2004-10-01

The Design through Analysis Realization Team (DART) will provide analysts with a complete toolset that reduces the time to create, generate, analyze, and manage the data generated in a computational analysis. The toolset will be both easy to learn and easy to use. The DART Roadmap Vision provides for progressive improvements that will reduce the Design through Analysis (DTA) cycle time by 90-percent over a three-year period while improving both the quality and accountability of the analyses.

The Historical and Situated Nature Design Experiments--Implications for Data Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krange, I.; Ludvigsen, Sten

2009-01-01

This article is a methodological contribution to the use of design experiments in educational research. We will discuss the implications of a historical and situated interpretation to design experiments, the consequences this has for the analysis of the collected data and empirically based suggestions to improve the designs of the computer-based…

Power Analysis in Two-Level Unbalanced Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Konstantopoulos, Spyros

2010-01-01

Previous work on statistical power has discussed mainly single-level designs or 2-level balanced designs with random effects. Although balanced experiments are common, in practice balance cannot always be achieved. Work on class size is one example of unbalanced designs. This study provides methods for power analysis in 2-level unbalanced designs…

Canadian Building Digests 1-100 (With Index).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa (Ontario). Div. of Building Research.

One hundred different topics related to the technical aspects of building design and construction are discussed. The major areas of discussion are--(1) the effects of climate on building materials, (2) site and soil analysis, (3) acoustical and thermal design considerations, (4) fire and building design, (5) structural analysis and design, and (6)…

Performance analysis and dynamic modeling of a single-spool turbojet engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrei, Irina-Carmen; Toader, Adrian; Stroe, Gabriela; Frunzulica, Florin

2017-01-01

The purposes of modeling and simulation of a turbojet engine are the steady state analysis and transient analysis. From the steady state analysis, which consists in the investigation of the operating, equilibrium regimes and it is based on appropriate modeling describing the operation of a turbojet engine at design and off-design regimes, results the performance analysis, concluded by the engine's operational maps (i.e. the altitude map, velocity map and speed map) and the engine's universal map. The mathematical model that allows the calculation of the design and off-design performances, in case of a single spool turbojet is detailed. An in house code was developed, its calibration was done for the J85 turbojet engine as the test case. The dynamic modeling of the turbojet engine is obtained from the energy balance equations for compressor, combustor and turbine, as the engine's main parts. The transient analysis, which is based on appropriate modeling of engine and its main parts, expresses the dynamic behavior of the turbojet engine, and further, provides details regarding the engine's control. The aim of the dynamic analysis is to determine a control program for the turbojet, based on the results provided by performance analysis. In case of the single-spool turbojet engine, with fixed nozzle geometry, the thrust is controlled by one parameter, which is the fuel flow rate. The design and management of the aircraft engine controls are based on the results of the transient analysis. The construction of the design model is complex, since it is based on both steady-state and transient analysis, further allowing the flight path cycle analysis and optimizations. This paper presents numerical simulations for a single-spool turbojet engine (J85 as test case), with appropriate modeling for steady-state and dynamic analysis.

Low Noise Research Fan Stage Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hobbs, David E.; Neubert, Robert J.; Malmborg, Eric W.; Philbrick, Daniel H.; Spear, David A.

1995-01-01

This report describes the design of a Low Noise ADP Research Fan stage. The fan is a variable pitch design which is designed at the cruise pitch condition. Relative to the cruise setting, the blade is closed at takeoff and opened for reverse thrust operation. The fan stage is a split flow design with fan exit guide vanes and core stators. This fan stage design was combined with a nacelle and engine core duct to form a powered fan/nacelle, subscale model. This model is intended for use in aerodynamic performance, acoustic and structural testing in a wind tunnel. The model has a 22-inch outer fan diameter and a hub-to-top ratio of 0.426 which permits the use of existing NASA fan and cowl force balance designs and rig drive system. The design parameters were selected to permit valid acoustic and aerodynamic comparisons with the PW 17-inch rig previously tested under NASA contract. The fan stage design is described in detail. The results of the design axisymmetric analysis at aerodynamic design condition are included. The structural analysis of the fan rotor and attachment is described including the material selections and stress analysis. The blade and attachment are predicted to have adequate low cycle fatigue life, and an acceptable operating range without resonant stress or flutter. The stage was acoustically designed with airfoil counts in the fan exit guide vane and core stator to minimize noise. A fan-FEGV tone analysis developed separately under NASA contract was used to determine these airfoil counts. The fan stage design was matched to a nacelle design to form a fan/nacelle model for wind tunnel testing. The nacelle design was developed under a separate NASA contract. The nacelle was designed with an axisymmetric inlet, cowl and nozzle for convenience in testing and fabrication. Aerodynamic analysis of the nacelle confirmed the required performance at various aircraft operating conditions.

Identifying Effective Treatments from a Brief Experimental Analysis: Using a Single-Case Design Elements To Aid Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martens, Brian K.; Eckert, Tanya L.; Bradley, Tracy A.; Ardoin, Scott P.

1999-01-01

Discusses the benefits of using brief experimental analysis to aid in treatment selection, identifies the forms of treatment that are most appropriate for this type of analysis, and describes key design elements for comparing treatments. Presents a study demonstrating the use of these design elements to identify an effective intervention for two…

A Study on the Difficulties of Learning Phase Transition in Object-Oriented Analysis and Design from the Viewpoint of Semantic Distance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Shin-Shing

2015-01-01

Students in object-oriented analysis and design (OOAD) courses typically encounter difficulties transitioning from object-oriented analysis (OOA) to logical design (OOLD). This study conducted an empirical experiment to examine these learning difficulties by evaluating differences between OOA-to-OOLD and OOLD-to-object-oriented-physical-design…

An Analysis of Fixed Wing Tactical Airlifter Characteristics Using an Intra-Theater Airlift Computer Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

an Experimental Design ...... 31 Selection of Variables .................... ... 34 Defining Measures of Effectiveness ....... 37 Specification of...Required Number of Replications 44 Modification of Scenario Files ......... ... 46 Analysis of the Main Effects of a Two Level Factorial Design ...48 Analysis of the Interaction Effects of a *Two Level Factorial Design .. ............. ... 49 Yate’s Algorithm ......... ................ 50

Design sensitivity analysis of nonlinear structural response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardoso, J. B.; Arora, J. S.

1987-01-01

A unified theory is described of design sensitivity analysis of linear and nonlinear structures for shape, nonshape and material selection problems. The concepts of reference volume and adjoint structure are used to develop the unified viewpoint. A general formula for design sensitivity analysis is derived. Simple analytical linear and nonlinear examples are used to interpret various terms of the formula and demonstrate its use.

High Energy Astronomy Observatory, Mission C, Phase A. Volume 2: Preliminary analyses and conceptual design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

An analysis and conceptual design of a baseline mission and spacecraft are presented. Aspects of the HEAO-C discussed include: baseline experiments with X-ray observations of space, analysis of mission requirements, observatory design, structural analysis, thermal control, attitude sensing and control system, communication and data handling, and space shuttle launch and retrieval of HEAO-C.

Modeling and Analysis of Power Processing Systems (MAPPS). Volume 1: Technical report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, F. C.; Rahman, S.; Carter, R. A.; Wu, C. H.; Yu, Y.; Chang, R.

1980-01-01

Computer aided design and analysis techniques were applied to power processing equipment. Topics covered include: (1) discrete time domain analysis of switching regulators for performance analysis; (2) design optimization of power converters using augmented Lagrangian penalty function technique; (3) investigation of current-injected multiloop controlled switching regulators; and (4) application of optimization for Navy VSTOL energy power system. The generation of the mathematical models and the development and application of computer aided design techniques to solve the different mathematical models are discussed. Recommendations are made for future work that would enhance the application of the computer aided design techniques for power processing systems.

Enabling Rapid and Robust Structural Analysis During Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eldred, Lloyd B.; Padula, Sharon L.; Li, Wu

2015-01-01

This paper describes a multi-year effort to add a structural analysis subprocess to a supersonic aircraft conceptual design process. The desired capabilities include parametric geometry, automatic finite element mesh generation, static and aeroelastic analysis, and structural sizing. The paper discusses implementation details of the new subprocess, captures lessons learned, and suggests future improvements. The subprocess quickly compares concepts and robustly handles large changes in wing or fuselage geometry. The subprocess can rank concepts with regard to their structural feasibility and can identify promising regions of the design space. The automated structural analysis subprocess is deemed robust and rapid enough to be included in multidisciplinary conceptual design and optimization studies.

Preliminary design package for prototype solar heating and cooling systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

A summary is given of the preliminary analysis and design activity on solar heating and cooling systems. The analysis was made without site specific data other than weather; therefore, the results indicate performance expected under these special conditions. Major items include a market analysis, design approaches, trade studies and other special data required to evaluate the preliminary analysis and design. The program calls for the development and delivery of eight prototype solar heating and cooling systems for installation and operational test. Two heating and six heating and cooling units will be delivered for Single Family Residences, Multiple-family Residences and commercial applications.

Application of advanced multidisciplinary analysis and optimization methods to vehicle design synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Consoli, Robert David; Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw

1990-01-01

Advanced multidisciplinary analysis and optimization methods, namely system sensitivity analysis and non-hierarchical system decomposition, are applied to reduce the cost and improve the visibility of an automated vehicle design synthesis process. This process is inherently complex due to the large number of functional disciplines and associated interdisciplinary couplings. Recent developments in system sensitivity analysis as applied to complex non-hierarchic multidisciplinary design optimization problems enable the decomposition of these complex interactions into sub-processes that can be evaluated in parallel. The application of these techniques results in significant cost, accuracy, and visibility benefits for the entire design synthesis process.

Failure modes and effects analysis automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kamhieh, Cynthia H.; Cutts, Dannie E.; Purves, R. Byron

1988-01-01

A failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) assistant was implemented as a knowledge based system and will be used during design of the Space Station to aid engineers in performing the complex task of tracking failures throughout the entire design effort. The three major directions in which automation was pursued were the clerical components of the FMEA process, the knowledge acquisition aspects of FMEA, and the failure propagation/analysis portions of the FMEA task. The system is accessible to design, safety, and reliability engineers at single user workstations and, although not designed to replace conventional FMEA, it is expected to decrease by many man years the time required to perform the analysis.

RLV Turbine Performance Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffin, Lisa W.; Dorney, Daniel J.

2001-01-01

A task was developed at NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to improve turbine aerodynamic performance through the application of advanced design and analysis tools. There are four major objectives of this task: 1) to develop, enhance, and integrate advanced turbine aerodynamic design and analysis tools; 2) to develop the methodology for application of the analytical techniques; 3) to demonstrate the benefits of the advanced turbine design procedure through its application to a relevant turbine design point; and 4) to verify the optimized design and analysis with testing. Final results of the preliminary design and the results of the two-dimensional (2D) detailed design of the first-stage vane of a supersonic turbine suitable for a reusable launch vehicle (R-LV) are presented. Analytical techniques for obtaining the results are also discussed.

On the Use of Statistics in Design and the Implications for Deterministic Computer Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, Timothy W.; Peplinski, Jesse; Koch, Patrick N.; Allen, Janet K.

1997-01-01

Perhaps the most prevalent use of statistics in engineering design is through Taguchi's parameter and robust design -- using orthogonal arrays to compute signal-to-noise ratios in a process of design improvement. In our view, however, there is an equally exciting use of statistics in design that could become just as prevalent: it is the concept of metamodeling whereby statistical models are built to approximate detailed computer analysis codes. Although computers continue to get faster, analysis codes always seem to keep pace so that their computational time remains non-trivial. Through metamodeling, approximations of these codes are built that are orders of magnitude cheaper to run. These metamodels can then be linked to optimization routines for fast analysis, or they can serve as a bridge for integrating analysis codes across different domains. In this paper we first review metamodeling techniques that encompass design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We discuss their existing applications in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of metamodeling techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

An overview of engineering concepts and current design algorithms for probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, S. F.; Hu, J.; Hopkins, D. A.

1995-01-01

The article begins by examining the fundamentals of traditional deterministic design philosophy. The initial section outlines the concepts of failure criteria and limit state functions two traditional notions that are embedded in deterministic design philosophy. This is followed by a discussion regarding safety factors (a possible limit state function) and the common utilization of statistical concepts in deterministic engineering design approaches. Next the fundamental aspects of a probabilistic failure analysis are explored and it is shown that deterministic design concepts mentioned in the initial portion of the article are embedded in probabilistic design methods. For components fabricated from ceramic materials (and other similarly brittle materials) the probabilistic design approach yields the widely used Weibull analysis after suitable assumptions are incorporated. The authors point out that Weibull analysis provides the rare instance where closed form solutions are available for a probabilistic failure analysis. Since numerical methods are usually required to evaluate component reliabilities, a section on Monte Carlo methods is included to introduce the concept. The article concludes with a presentation of the technical aspects that support the numerical method known as fast probability integration (FPI). This includes a discussion of the Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler approximations.

Toxic release consequence analysis tool (TORCAT) for inherently safer design plant.

PubMed

Shariff, Azmi Mohd; Zaini, Dzulkarnain

2010-10-15

Many major accidents due to toxic release in the past have caused many fatalities such as the tragedy of MIC release in Bhopal, India (1984). One of the approaches is to use inherently safer design technique that utilizes inherent safety principle to eliminate or minimize accidents rather than to control the hazard. This technique is best implemented in preliminary design stage where the consequence of toxic release can be evaluated and necessary design improvements can be implemented to eliminate or minimize the accidents to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) without resorting to costly protective system. However, currently there is no commercial tool available that has such capability. This paper reports on the preliminary findings on the development of a prototype tool for consequence analysis and design improvement via inherent safety principle by utilizing an integrated process design simulator with toxic release consequence analysis model. The consequence analysis based on the worst-case scenarios during process flowsheeting stage were conducted as case studies. The preliminary finding shows that toxic release consequences analysis tool (TORCAT) has capability to eliminate or minimize the potential toxic release accidents by adopting the inherent safety principle early in preliminary design stage. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

WEC Design Response Toolbox v. 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coe, Ryan; Michelen, Carlos; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey

2016-03-30

The WEC Design Response Toolbox (WDRT) is a numerical toolbox for design-response analysis of wave energy converters (WECs). The WDRT was developed during a series of efforts to better understand WEC survival design. The WDRT has been designed as a tool for researchers and developers, enabling the straightforward application of statistical and engineering methods. The toolbox includes methods for short-term extreme response, environmental characterization, long-term extreme response and risk analysis, fatigue, and design wave composition.

Analysis of Combined Data from Heterogeneous Study Designs: A Methodological Proposal from the Patient Navigation Research program

PubMed Central

Roetzheim, Richard G.; Freund, Karen M.; Corle, Don K.; Murray, David M.; Snyder, Frederick R.; Kronman, Andrea C.; Jean-Pierre, Pascal; Raich, Peter C.; Holden, Alan E. C.; Darnell, Julie S.; Warren-Mears, Victoria; Patierno, Steven; Design, PNRP; Committee, Analysis

2013-01-01

Background The Patient Navigation Research Program (PNRP) is a cooperative effort of nine research projects, each employing its own unique study design. To evaluate projects such as PNRP, it is desirable to perform a pooled analysis to increase power relative to the individual projects. There is no agreed upon prospective methodology, however, for analyzing combined data arising from different study designs. Expert opinions were thus solicited from members of the PNRP Design and Analysis Committee Purpose To review possible methodologies for analyzing combined data arising from heterogeneous study designs. Methods The Design and Analysis Committee critically reviewed the pros and cons of five potential methods for analyzing combined PNRP project data. Conclusions were based on simple consensus. The five approaches reviewed included: 1) Analyzing and reporting each project separately, 2) Combining data from all projects and performing an individual-level analysis, 3) Pooling data from projects having similar study designs, 4) Analyzing pooled data using a prospective meta analytic technique, 5) Analyzing pooled data utilizing a novel simulated group randomized design. Results Methodologies varied in their ability to incorporate data from all PNRP projects, to appropriately account for differing study designs, and in their impact from differing project sample sizes. Limitations The conclusions reached were based on expert opinion and not derived from actual analyses performed. Conclusions The ability to analyze pooled data arising from differing study designs may provide pertinent information to inform programmatic, budgetary, and policy perspectives. Multi-site community-based research may not lend itself well to the more stringent explanatory and pragmatic standards of a randomized controlled trial design. Given our growing interest in community-based population research, the challenges inherent in the analysis of heterogeneous study design are likely to become more salient. Discussion of the analytic issues faced by the PNRP and the methodological approaches we considered may be of value to other prospective community-based research programs. PMID:22273587

Tracking Hazard Analysis Data in a Jungle of Changing Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, Robin S.; Young, Jonathan

2006-05-14

The biggest fear of the hazard analyst is the loss of data in the middle of the design jungle. When project schedules are demanding and design is changing rapidly it is essential that the hazard analysis data be tracked and kept current in order to provide the required project design, development, and regulatory support. Being able to identify the current information, as well as the past archived information, as the design progresses and to be able to show how the project is designing in safety through modifications based on hazard analysis results is imperative. At the DOE Hanford site inmore » Washington State, Flour Hanford Inc is in the process of the removal and disposition of sludge from the 100 Area K Basins. The K Basins were used to store spent fuel from the operating reactors at the Hanford Site. The sludge is a by-product from the corrosion of the fuel and fuel storage canisters. The sludge removal project has been very dynamic involving the design, procurement and, more recently, the operation of processes at two basins, K East and K West. The project has an ambitious schedule with a large number of changes to design concepts. In order to support the complex K Basins project a technique to track the status of the hazard analysis data was developed. This paper will identify the most important elements of the tracking system and how it was used to assist the project in ensuring that current design data was reflected in a specific version of the hazard analysis and to show how the project was keeping up with the design and ensuring compliance with the requirements to design in safety. While the specifics of the data tracking strategy for the K Basins sludge removal project will be described in the paper, the general concepts of the strategy are applicable to similar projects requiring iteration of hazard analysis and design.« less

Analysis of combined data from heterogeneous study designs: an applied example from the patient navigation research program.

PubMed

Roetzheim, Richard G; Freund, Karen M; Corle, Don K; Murray, David M; Snyder, Frederick R; Kronman, Andrea C; Jean-Pierre, Pascal; Raich, Peter C; Holden, Alan Ec; Darnell, Julie S; Warren-Mears, Victoria; Patierno, Steven

2012-04-01

The Patient Navigation Research Program (PNRP) is a cooperative effort of nine research projects, with similar clinical criteria but with different study designs. To evaluate projects such as PNRP, it is desirable to perform a pooled analysis to increase power relative to the individual projects. There is no agreed-upon prospective methodology, however, for analyzing combined data arising from different study designs. Expert opinions were thus solicited from the members of the PNRP Design and Analysis Committee. To review possible methodologies for analyzing combined data arising from heterogeneous study designs. The Design and Analysis Committee critically reviewed the pros and cons of five potential methods for analyzing combined PNRP project data. The conclusions were based on simple consensus. The five approaches reviewed included the following: (1) analyzing and reporting each project separately, (2) combining data from all projects and performing an individual-level analysis, (3) pooling data from projects having similar study designs, (4) analyzing pooled data using a prospective meta-analytic technique, and (5) analyzing pooled data utilizing a novel simulated group-randomized design. Methodologies varied in their ability to incorporate data from all PNRP projects, to appropriately account for differing study designs, and to accommodate differing project sample sizes. The conclusions reached were based on expert opinion and not derived from actual analyses performed. The ability to analyze pooled data arising from differing study designs may provide pertinent information to inform programmatic, budgetary, and policy perspectives. Multisite community-based research may not lend itself well to the more stringent explanatory and pragmatic standards of a randomized controlled trial design. Given our growing interest in community-based population research, the challenges inherent in the analysis of heterogeneous study design are likely to become more salient. Discussion of the analytic issues faced by the PNRP and the methodological approaches we considered may be of value to other prospective community-based research programs.

Designers workbench: toward real-time immersive modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuester, Falko; Duchaineau, Mark A.; Hamann, Bernd; Joy, Kenneth I.; Ma, Kwan-Liu

2000-05-01

This paper introduces the Designers Workbench, a semi- immersive virtual environment for two-handed modeling, sculpting and analysis tasks. The paper outlines the fundamental tools, design metaphors and hardware components required for an intuitive real-time modeling system. As companies focus on streamlining productivity to cope with global competition, the migration to computer-aided design (CAD), computer-aided manufacturing, and computer-aided engineering systems has established a new backbone of modern industrial product development. However, traditionally a product design frequently originates form a clay model that, after digitization, forms the basis for the numerical description of CAD primitives. The Designers Workbench aims at closing this technology or 'digital gap' experienced by design and CAD engineers by transforming the classical design paradigm into its fully integrate digital and virtual analog allowing collaborative development in a semi- immersive virtual environment. This project emphasizes two key components form the classical product design cycle: freeform modeling and analysis. In the freedom modeling stage, content creation in the form of two-handed sculpting of arbitrary objects using polygonal, volumetric or mathematically defined primitives is emphasized, whereas the analysis component provides the tools required for pre- and post-processing steps for finite element analysis tasks applied to the created models.

Design and analysis of composite structures with stress concentrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garbo, S. P.

1983-01-01

An overview of an analytic procedure which can be used to provide comprehensive stress and strength analysis of composite structures with stress concentrations is given. The methodology provides designer/analysts with a user-oriented procedure which, within acceptable engineering accuracy, accounts for the effects of a wide range of application design variables. The procedure permits the strength of arbitrary laminate constructions under general bearing/bypass load conditions to be predicted with only unnotched unidirectional strength and stiffness input data required. Included is a brief discussion of the relevancy of this analysis to the design of primary aircraft structure; an overview of the analytic procedure with theory/test correlations; and an example of the use and interaction of this strength analysis relative to the design of high-load transfer bolted composite joints.

Concept design and analysis of intermodal freight systems : volume II : Methodology and Results

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-01-01

This report documents the concept design and analysis of intermodal freight systems. The primary objective of this project was to quantify the various tradeoffs and relationships between fundamental system design parameters and operating strategies, ...

Concept design and analysis of intermodal freight systems : volume I : executive summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-01-01

This report documents the concept design and analysis of intermodal freight systems. The primary objective of this project was to quantify the various tradeoffs and relationships between fundamental system design parameters and operating strategies, ...

Analysis software can put surgical precision into medical device design.

PubMed

Jain, S

2005-11-01

Use of finite element analysis software can give design engineers greater freedom to experiment with new designs and materials and allow companies to get products through clinical trials and onto the market faster. This article suggests how.

Multiphysics Engineering Analysis for an Integrated Design of ITER Diagnostic First Wall and Diagnostic Shield Module Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhai, Y.; Loesser, G.; Smith, M.

ITER diagnostic first walls (DFWs) and diagnostic shield modules (DSMs) inside the port plugs (PPs) are designed to protect diagnostic instrument and components from a harsh plasma environment and provide structural support while allowing for diagnostic access to the plasma. The design of DFWs and DSMs are driven by 1) plasma radiation and nuclear heating during normal operation 2) electromagnetic loads during plasma events and associate component structural responses. A multi-physics engineering analysis protocol for the design has been established at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and it was used for the design of ITER DFWs and DSMs. The analyses weremore » performed to address challenging design issues based on resultant stresses and deflections of the DFW-DSM-PP assembly for the main load cases. ITER Structural Design Criteria for In-Vessel Components (SDC-IC) required for design by analysis and three major issues driving the mechanical design of ITER DFWs are discussed. The general guidelines for the DSM design have been established as a result of design parametric studies.« less

Adaptive Modeling, Engineering Analysis and Design of Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek; Hsu, Su-Yuen; Mason, Brian H.; Hicks, Mike D.; Jones, William T.; Sleight, David W.; Chun, Julio; Spangler, Jan L.; Kamhawi, Hilmi; Dahl, Jorgen L.

2006-01-01

This paper describes initial progress towards the development and enhancement of a set of software tools for rapid adaptive modeling, and conceptual design of advanced aerospace vehicle concepts. With demanding structural and aerodynamic performance requirements, these high fidelity geometry based modeling tools are essential for rapid and accurate engineering analysis at the early concept development stage. This adaptive modeling tool was used for generating vehicle parametric geometry, outer mold line and detailed internal structural layout of wing, fuselage, skin, spars, ribs, control surfaces, frames, bulkheads, floors, etc., that facilitated rapid finite element analysis, sizing study and weight optimization. The high quality outer mold line enabled rapid aerodynamic analysis in order to provide reliable design data at critical flight conditions. Example application for structural design of a conventional aircraft and a high altitude long endurance vehicle configuration are presented. This work was performed under the Conceptual Design Shop sub-project within the Efficient Aerodynamic Shape and Integration project, under the former Vehicle Systems Program. The project objective was to design and assess unconventional atmospheric vehicle concepts efficiently and confidently. The implementation may also dramatically facilitate physics-based systems analysis for the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Mission. In addition to providing technology for design and development of unconventional aircraft, the techniques for generation of accurate geometry and internal sub-structure and the automated interface with the high fidelity analysis codes could also be applied towards the design of vehicles for the NASA Exploration and Space Science Mission projects.

Design/analysis of the JWST ISIM bonded joints for survivability at cryogenic temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartoszyk, Andrew; Johnston, John; Kaprielian, Charles; Kuhn, Jonathan; Kunt, Cengiz; Rodini, Benjamin; Young, Daniel

2005-08-01

A major design and analysis challenge for the JWST ISIM structure is thermal survivability of metal/composite adhesively bonded joints at the cryogenic temperature of 30K (-405°F). Current bonded joint concepts include internal invar plug fittings, external saddle titanium/invar fittings and composite gusset/clip joints all bonded to hybrid composite tubes (75mm square) made with M55J/954-6 and T300/954-6 prepregs. Analytical experience and design work done on metal/composite bonded joints at temperatures below that of liquid nitrogen are limited and important analysis tools, material properties, and failure criteria for composites at cryogenic temperatures are sparse in the literature. Increasing this challenge is the difficulty in testing for these required tools and properties at cryogenic temperatures. To gain confidence in analyzing and designing the ISIM joints, a comprehensive joint development test program has been planned and is currently running. The test program is designed to produce required analytical tools and develop a composite failure criterion for bonded joint strengths at cryogenic temperatures. Finite element analysis is used to design simple test coupons that simulate anticipated stress states in the flight joints; subsequently, the test results are used to correlate the analysis technique for the final design of the bonded joints. In this work, we present an overview of the analysis and test methodology, current results, and working joint designs based on developed techniques and properties.

Analysis and Inverse Design of the HSR Arrow Wing Configuration with Fuselage, Wing, and Flow Through Nacelles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krist, Steven E.; Bauer, Steven X. S.

1999-01-01

The design process for developing the natural flow wing design on the HSR arrow wing configuration utilized several design tools and analysis methods. Initial fuselage/wing designs were generated with inviscid analysis and optimization methods in conjunction with the natural flow wing design philosophy. A number of designs were generated, satisfying different system constraints. Of the three natural flow wing designs developed, the NFWAc2 configuration is the design which satisfies the constraints utilized by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace (MDA) in developing a series of optimized configurations; a wind tunnel model of the MDA designed OPT5 configuration was constructed and tested. The present paper is concerned with the viscous analysis and inverse design of the arrow wing configurations, including the effects of the installed diverters/nacelles. Analyses were conducted with OVERFLOW, a Navier-Stokes flow solver for overset grids. Inverse designs were conducted with OVERDISC, which couples OVERFLOW with the CDISC inverse design method. An initial system of overset grids was generated for the OPT5 configuration with installed diverters/nacelles. An automated regridding process was then developed to use the OPT5 component grids to create grids for the natural flow wing designs. The inverse design process was initiated using the NFWAc2 configuration as a starting point, eventually culminating in the NFWAc4 design-for which a wind tunnel model was constructed. Due to the time constraints on the design effort, initial analyses and designs were conducted with a fairly coarse grid; subsequent analyses have been conducted on a refined system of grids. Comparisons of the computational results to experiment are provided at the end of this paper.

Using task analysis to improve the requirements elicitation in health information system.

PubMed

Teixeira, Leonor; Ferreira, Carlos; Santos, Beatriz Sousa

2007-01-01

This paper describes the application of task analysis within the design process of a Web-based information system for managing clinical information in hemophilia care, in order to improve the requirements elicitation and, consequently, to validate the domain model obtained in a previous phase of the design process (system analysis). The use of task analysis in this case proved to be a practical and efficient way to improve the requirements engineering process by involving users in the design process.

Design and Evaluation of Glass/epoxy Composite Blade and Composite Tower Applied to Wind Turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Hyunbum

2018-02-01

In the study, the analysis and manufacturing of small class wind turbine blade was performed. In the structural design, firstly the loading conditions are defined through the load case analysis. The proposed structural configuration of blade has a sandwich type composite structure with the E-glass/Epoxy face sheets and the Urethane foam core for lightness, structural stability, low manufacturing cost and easy manufacturing process. And also, this work proposes a design procedure and results of tower for the small scale wind turbine systems. Structural analysis of blade including load cases, stress, deformation, buckling, vibration and fatigue life was performed using the finite element method, the load spectrum analysis and the Miner rule. Moreover, investigation on structural safety of tower was verified through structural analysis by FEM. The manufacturing of blade and tower was performed based on structural design. In order to investigate the designed structure, the structural tests were conducted and its results were compared with the calculated results. It is confirmed that the final proposed blade and tower meet the design requirements.

SUPIN: A Computational Tool for Supersonic Inlet Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slater, John W.

2016-01-01

A computational tool named SUPIN is being developed to design and analyze the aerodynamic performance of supersonic inlets. The inlet types available include the axisymmetric pitot, three-dimensional pitot, axisymmetric outward-turning, two-dimensional single-duct, two-dimensional bifurcated-duct, and streamline-traced inlets. The aerodynamic performance is characterized by the flow rates, total pressure recovery, and drag. The inlet flow-field is divided into parts to provide a framework for the geometry and aerodynamic modeling. Each part of the inlet is defined in terms of geometric factors. The low-fidelity aerodynamic analysis and design methods are based on analytic, empirical, and numerical methods which provide for quick design and analysis. SUPIN provides inlet geometry in the form of coordinates, surface angles, and cross-sectional areas. SUPIN can generate inlet surface grids and three-dimensional, structured volume grids for use with higher-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. Capabilities highlighted in this paper include the design and analysis of streamline-traced external-compression inlets, modeling of porous bleed, and the design and analysis of mixed-compression inlets. CFD analyses are used to verify the SUPIN results.

Rocket Design for the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Follett, William W.; Rajagopal, Raj

2001-01-01

The focus of the AA MDO team is to reduce product development cost through the capture and automation of best design and analysis practices and through increasing the availability of low-cost, high-fidelity analysis. Implementation of robust designs reduces costs associated with the Test-Fall-Fix cycle. RD is currently focusing on several technologies to improve the design process, including optimization and robust design, expert and rule-based systems, and collaborative technologies.

Total-System Approach To Design And Analysis Of Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verderaime, V.

1995-01-01

Paper presents overview and study of, and comprehensive approach to, multidisciplinary engineering design and analysis of structures. Emphasizes issues related to design of semistatic structures in environments in which spacecraft launched, underlying concepts applicable to other structures within unique terrestrial, marine, or flight environments. Purpose of study to understand interactions among traditionally separate engineering design disciplines with view toward optimizing not only structure but also overall design process.

CometBoards Users Manual Release 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guptill, James D.; Coroneos, Rula M.; Patnaik, Surya N.; Hopkins, Dale A.; Berke, Lazlo

1996-01-01

Several nonlinear mathematical programming algorithms for structural design applications are available at present. These include the sequence of unconstrained minimizations technique, the method of feasible directions, and the sequential quadratic programming technique. The optimality criteria technique and the fully utilized design concept are two other structural design methods. A project was undertaken to bring all these design methods under a common computer environment so that a designer can select any one of these tools that may be suitable for his/her application. To facilitate selection of a design algorithm, to validate and check out the computer code, and to ascertain the relative merits of the design tools, modest finite element structural analysis programs based on the concept of stiffness and integrated force methods have been coupled to each design method. The code that contains both these design and analysis tools, by reading input information from analysis and design data files, can cast the design of a structure as a minimum-weight optimization problem. The code can then solve it with a user-specified optimization technique and a user-specified analysis method. This design code is called CometBoards, which is an acronym for Comparative Evaluation Test Bed of Optimization and Analysis Routines for the Design of Structures. This manual describes for the user a step-by-step procedure for setting up the input data files and executing CometBoards to solve a structural design problem. The manual includes the organization of CometBoards; instructions for preparing input data files; the procedure for submitting a problem; illustrative examples; and several demonstration problems. A set of 29 structural design problems have been solved by using all the optimization methods available in CometBoards. A summary of the optimum results obtained for these problems is appended to this users manual. CometBoards, at present, is available for Posix-based Cray and Convex computers, Iris and Sun workstations, and the VM/CMS system.

Overview: Applications of numerical optimization methods to helicopter design problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miura, H.

1984-01-01

There are a number of helicopter design problems that are well suited to applications of numerical design optimization techniques. Adequate implementation of this technology will provide high pay-offs. There are a number of numerical optimization programs available, and there are many excellent response/performance analysis programs developed or being developed. But integration of these programs in a form that is usable in the design phase should be recognized as important. It is also necessary to attract the attention of engineers engaged in the development of analysis capabilities and to make them aware that analysis capabilities are much more powerful if integrated into design oriented codes. Frequently, the shortcoming of analysis capabilities are revealed by coupling them with an optimization code. Most of the published work has addressed problems in preliminary system design, rotor system/blade design or airframe design. Very few published results were found in acoustics, aerodynamics and control system design. Currently major efforts are focused on vibration reduction, and aerodynamics/acoustics applications appear to be growing fast. The development of a computer program system to integrate the multiple disciplines required in helicopter design with numerical optimization technique is needed. Activities in Britain, Germany and Poland are identified, but no published results from France, Italy, the USSR or Japan were found.

Design Process Improvement for Electric CAR Harness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawatdee, Thiwarat; Chutima, Parames

2017-06-01

In an automobile parts design company, the customer satisfaction is one of the most important factors for product design. Therefore, the company employs all means to focus its product design process based on the various requirements of customers resulting in high number of design changes. The objective of this research is to improve the design process of the electric car harness that effects the production scheduling by using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) as the main tools. FTA is employed for root cause analysis and FMEA is used to ranking a High Risk Priority Number (RPN) which is shows the priority of factors in the electric car harness that have high impact to the design of the electric car harness. After the implementation, the improvements are realized significantly since the number of design change is reduced from 0.26% to 0.08%.

[Review of research design and statistical methods in Chinese Journal of Cardiology].

PubMed

Zhang, Li-jun; Yu, Jin-ming

2009-07-01

To evaluate the research design and the use of statistical methods in Chinese Journal of Cardiology. Peer through the research design and statistical methods in all of the original papers in Chinese Journal of Cardiology from December 2007 to November 2008. The most frequently used research designs are cross-sectional design (34%), prospective design (21%) and experimental design (25%). In all of the articles, 49 (25%) use wrong statistical methods, 29 (15%) lack some sort of statistic analysis, 23 (12%) have inconsistencies in description of methods. There are significant differences between different statistical methods (P < 0.001). The correction rates of multifactor analysis were low and repeated measurement datas were not used repeated measurement analysis. Many problems exist in Chinese Journal of Cardiology. Better research design and correct use of statistical methods are still needed. More strict review by statistician and epidemiologist is also required to improve the literature qualities.

Conceptual spacecraft systems design and synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, R. L.; Deryder, D. D.; Ferebee, M. J., Jr.

1984-01-01

An interactive systems design and synthesis is performed on future spacecraft concepts using the Interactive Design and Evaluation of Advanced Systems (IDEAS) computer-aided design and analysis system. The capabilities and advantages of the systems-oriented interactive computer-aided design and analysis system are described. The synthesis of both large antenna and space station concepts, and space station evolutionary growth designs is demonstrated. The IDEAS program provides the user with both an interactive graphics and an interactive computing capability which consists of over 40 multidisciplinary synthesis and analysis modules. Thus, the user can create, analyze, and conduct parametric studies and modify earth-orbiting spacecraft designs (space stations, large antennas or platforms, and technologically advanced spacecraft) at an interactive terminal with relative ease. The IDEAS approach is useful during the conceptual design phase of advanced space missions when a multiplicity of parameters and concepts must be analyzed and evaluated in a cost-effective and timely manner.

Study on the Preliminary Design of ARGO-M Operation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Yoon-Kyung; Lim, Hyung-Chul; Rew, Dong-Young; Jo, Jung Hyun; Park, Jong-Uk; Park, Eun-Seo; Park, Jang-Hyun

2010-12-01

Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute has been developing one mobile satellite laser ranging system named as accurate ranging system for geodetic observation-mobile (ARGO-M). Preliminary design of ARGO-M operation system (AOS) which is one of the ARGO-M subsystems was completed in 2009. Preliminary design results are applied to the following development phase by performing detailed design with analysis of pre-defined requirements and analysis of the derived specifications. This paper addresses the preliminary design of the whole AOS. The design results in operation and control part which is a key part in the operation system are described in detail. Analysis results of the interface between operation-supporting hardware and the control computer are summarized, which is necessary in defining the requirements for the operation-supporting hardware. Results of this study are expected to be used in the critical design phase to finalize the design process.

An inverse method for the aerodynamic design of three-dimensional aircraft engine nacelles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, R. A.; Cedar, R. D.

1991-01-01

A fast, efficient and user friendly inverse design system for 3-D nacelles was developed. The system is a product of a 2-D inverse design method originally developed at NASA-Langley and the CFL3D analysis code which was also developed at NASA-Langley and modified for nacelle analysis. The design system uses a predictor/corrector design approach in which an analysis code is used to calculate the flow field for an initial geometry, the geometry is then modified based on the difference between the calculated and target pressures. A detailed discussion of the design method, the process of linking it to the modified CFL3D solver and its extension to 3-D is presented. This is followed by a number of examples of the use of the design system for the design of both axisymmetric and 3-D nacelles.

Analysis of subsonic wind tunnel with variation shape rectangular and octagonal on test section

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhakasywi, D.; Ismail; Suwandi, A.; Fadhli, A.

2018-02-01

The need for good design in the aerodynamics field required a wind tunnel design. The wind tunnel design required in this case is capable of generating laminar flow. In this research searched for wind tunnel models with rectangular and octagonal variations with objectives to generate laminar flow in the test section. The research method used numerical approach of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) and manual analysis to analyze internal flow in test section. By CFD simulation results and manual analysis to generate laminar flow in the test section is a design that has an octagonal shape without filled for optimal design.

Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool Development using a Genetic Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pak, Chan-gi; Li, Wesley

2008-01-01

Multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization using a genetic algorithm is being developed at the National Aeronautics and Space A dministration Dryden Flight Research Center to automate analysis and design process by leveraging existing tools such as NASTRAN, ZAERO a nd CFD codes to enable true multidisciplinary optimization in the pr eliminary design stage of subsonic, transonic, supersonic, and hypers onic aircraft. This is a promising technology, but faces many challe nges in large-scale, real-world application. This paper describes cur rent approaches, recent results, and challenges for MDAO as demonstr ated by our experience with the Ikhana fire pod design.

Active controls: A look at analytical methods and associated tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newsom, J. R.; Adams, W. M., Jr.; Mukhopadhyay, V.; Tiffany, S. H.; Abel, I.

1984-01-01

A review of analytical methods and associated tools for active controls analysis and design problems is presented. Approaches employed to develop mathematical models suitable for control system analysis and/or design are discussed. Significant efforts have been expended to develop tools to generate the models from the standpoint of control system designers' needs and develop the tools necessary to analyze and design active control systems. Representative examples of these tools are discussed. Examples where results from the methods and tools have been compared with experimental data are also presented. Finally, a perspective on future trends in analysis and design methods is presented.

Water Power Data and Tools | Water Power | NREL

Science.gov Websites

computer modeling tools and data with state-of-the-art design and analysis. Photo of a buoy designed around National Wind Technology Center's Information Portal as well as a WEC-Sim fact sheet. WEC Design Response Toolbox The WEC Design Response Toolbox provides extreme response and fatigue analysis tools specifically

Implications of Therapist Effects for the Design and Analysis of Comparative Studies of Psychotherapies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crits-Christoph, Paul; Mintz, Jim

1991-01-01

Presents reasons therapist should be included as random design factor in nested analysis of (co)variance (AN[C]OVA) design used in psychotherapy research. Reviews studies which indicate majority of investigators ignore issue of effects from incorrect specification of ANOVA design. Presents reanalysis of data from 10 psychotherapy outcome studies…

SP-100 lithium thaw design, analysis, and testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choe, Hwang; Schrag, Michael R.; Koonce, David R.; Gamble, Robert E.; Halfen, Frank J.; Kirpich, Aaron S.

1993-01-01

The thaw design has been established for the 100 kWe SP-100 Space Reactor Power System. System thaw/startup analysis has confirmed that all system thaw requirements are met, and that rethaw and restart can be easily accomplished with this design. In addition, a series of lithium thaw characterization tests has been performed, confirming key design assumptions.

Automotive Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Analytical Design Service Corporation, Ann Arbor, MI, used NASTRAN (a NASA Structural Analysis program that analyzes a design and predicts how parts will perform) in tests of transmissions, engine cooling systems, internal engine parts, and body components. They also use it to design future automobiles. Analytical software can save millions by allowing computer simulated analysis of performance even before prototypes are built.

Statistical assessment on a combined analysis of GRYN-ROMN-UCBN upland vegetation vital signs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Kathryn M.; Rodhouse, Thomas J.

2014-01-01

As of 2013, Rocky Mountain and Upper Columbia Basin Inventory and Monitoring Networks have multiple years of vegetation data and Greater Yellowstone Network has three years of vegetation data and monitoring is ongoing in all three networks. Our primary objective is to assess whether a combined analysis of these data aimed at exploring correlations with climate and weather data is feasible. We summarize the core survey design elements across protocols and point out the major statistical challenges for a combined analysis at present. The dissimilarity in response designs between ROMN and UCBN-GRYN network protocols presents a statistical challenge that has not been resolved yet. However, the UCBN and GRYN data are compatible as they implement a similar response design; therefore, a combined analysis is feasible and will be pursued in future. When data collected by different networks are combined, the survey design describing the merged dataset is (likely) a complex survey design. A complex survey design is the result of combining datasets from different sampling designs. A complex survey design is characterized by unequal probability sampling, varying stratification, and clustering (see Lohr 2010 Chapter 7 for general overview). Statistical analysis of complex survey data requires modifications to standard methods, one of which is to include survey design weights within a statistical model. We focus on this issue for a combined analysis of upland vegetation from these networks, leaving other topics for future research. We conduct a simulation study on the possible effects of equal versus unequal probability selection of points on parameter estimates of temporal trend using available packages within the R statistical computing package. We find that, as written, using lmer or lm for trend detection in a continuous response and clm and clmm for visually estimated cover classes with “raw” GRTS design weights specified for the weight argument leads to substantially different results and/or computational instability. However, when only fixed effects are of interest, the survey package (svyglm and svyolr) may be suitable for a model-assisted analysis for trend. We provide possible directions for future research into combined analysis for ordinal and continuous vital sign indictors.

WIPP conceptual design report. Addendum A. Design calculations for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1977-04-01

The design calculations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented. The following categories are discussed: general nuclear calculations; radwaste calculations; structural calculations; mechanical calculations; civil calculations; electrical calculations; TRU waste surface facility time and motion analysis; shaft sinking procedures; hoist time and motion studies; mining system analysis; mine ventilation calculations; mine structural analysis; and miscellaneous underground calculations.

Modernization of the Transonic Axial Compressor Test Rig

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This work presents the design and simulation process of modernizing the Naval Postgraduate School’s transonic...fabricate the materials. Stiffness tests and modal analysis were conducted via Finite Element Analysis (FEA) software. This analysis was used to design ...work presents the design and simulation process of modernizing the Naval Postgraduate School’s transonic compressor test rig (TCR). The TCR, which

Defining the Content of the Undergraduate Systems Analysis and Design Course as Measured by a Survey of Instructors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Timothy J.

2011-01-01

There are many factors that make the undergraduate systems analysis and design course somewhat enigmatic in its purpose, and therefore equivocal in its delivery. The purpose of this research is to learn, specifically, what instructors are teaching in their systems analysis and design courses. This paper reports the results of a survey and follow…

Airbreathing hypersonic vehicle design and analysis methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lockwood, Mary Kae; Petley, Dennis H.; Hunt, James L.; Martin, John G.

1996-01-01

The design, analysis, and optimization of airbreathing hypersonic vehicles requires analyses involving many highly coupled disciplines at levels of accuracy exceeding those traditionally considered in a conceptual or preliminary-level design. Discipline analysis methods including propulsion, structures, thermal management, geometry, aerodynamics, performance, synthesis, sizing, closure, and cost are discussed. Also, the on-going integration of these methods into a working environment, known as HOLIST, is described.

Efficient runner safety assessment during early design phase and root cause analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Q. W.; Lais, S.; Gentner, C.; Braun, O.

2012-11-01

Fatigue related problems in Francis turbines, especially high head Francis turbines, have been published several times in the last years. During operation the runner is exposed to various steady and unsteady hydraulic loads. Therefore the analysis of forced response of the runner structure requires a combined approach of fluid dynamics and structural dynamics. Due to the high complexity of the phenomena and due to the limitation of computer power, the numerical prediction was in the past too expensive and not feasible for the use as standard design tool. However, due to continuous improvement of the knowledge and the simulation tools such complex analysis has become part of the design procedure in ANDRITZ HYDRO. This article describes the application of most advanced analysis techniques in runner safety check (RSC), including steady state CFD analysis, transient CFD analysis considering rotor stator interaction (RSI), static FE analysis and modal analysis in water considering the added mass effect, in the early design phase. This procedure allows a very efficient interaction between the hydraulic designer and the mechanical designer during the design phase, such that a risk of failure can be detected and avoided in an early design stage.The RSC procedure can also be applied to a root cause analysis (RCA) both to find out the cause of failure and to quickly define a technical solution to meet the safety criteria. An efficient application to a RCA of cracks in a Francis runner is quoted in this article as an example. The results of the RCA are presented together with an efficient and inexpensive solution whose effectiveness could be proven again by applying the described RSC technics. It is shown that, with the RSC procedure developed and applied as standard procedure in ANDRITZ HYDRO such a failure is excluded in an early design phase. Moreover, the RSC procedure is compatible with different commercial and open source codes and can be easily adapted to apply for other types of turbines, such as pump turbines and Pelton runners.

Review of Recent Methodological Developments in Group-Randomized Trials: Part 2-Analysis.

PubMed

Turner, Elizabeth L; Prague, Melanie; Gallis, John A; Li, Fan; Murray, David M

2017-07-01

In 2004, Murray et al. reviewed methodological developments in the design and analysis of group-randomized trials (GRTs). We have updated that review with developments in analysis of the past 13 years, with a companion article to focus on developments in design. We discuss developments in the topics of the earlier review (e.g., methods for parallel-arm GRTs, individually randomized group-treatment trials, and missing data) and in new topics, including methods to account for multiple-level clustering and alternative estimation methods (e.g., augmented generalized estimating equations, targeted maximum likelihood, and quadratic inference functions). In addition, we describe developments in analysis of alternative group designs (including stepped-wedge GRTs, network-randomized trials, and pseudocluster randomized trials), which require clustering to be accounted for in their design and analysis.

Modeling and analysis of power processing systems: Feasibility investigation and formulation of a methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biess, J. J.; Yu, Y.; Middlebrook, R. D.; Schoenfeld, A. D.

1974-01-01

A review is given of future power processing systems planned for the next 20 years, and the state-of-the-art of power processing design modeling and analysis techniques used to optimize power processing systems. A methodology of modeling and analysis of power processing equipment and systems has been formulated to fulfill future tradeoff studies and optimization requirements. Computer techniques were applied to simulate power processor performance and to optimize the design of power processing equipment. A program plan to systematically develop and apply the tools for power processing systems modeling and analysis is presented so that meaningful results can be obtained each year to aid the power processing system engineer and power processing equipment circuit designers in their conceptual and detail design and analysis tasks.

Analysis and design of high-power and efficient, millimeter-wave power amplifier systems using zero degree combiners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, Wei; Abbasi, Mortez; Ricketts, David S.

2018-01-01

We present the analysis and design of high-power millimetre-wave power amplifier (PA) systems using zero-degree combiners (ZDCs). The methodology presented optimises the PA device sizing and the number of combined unit PAs based on device load pull simulations, driver power consumption analysis and loss analysis of the ZDC. Our analysis shows that an optimal number of N-way combined unit PAs leads to the highest power-added efficiency (PAE) for a given output power. To illustrate our design methodology, we designed a 1-W PA system at 45 GHz using a 45 nm silicon-on-insulator process and showed that an 8-way combined PA has the highest PAE that yields simulated output power of 30.6 dBm and 31% peak PAE.

Investigation of Weibull statistics in fracture analysis of cast aluminum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

1989-01-01

The fracture strengths of two large batches of A357-T6 cast aluminum coupon specimens were compared by using two-parameter Weibull analysis. The minimum number of these specimens necessary to find the fracture strength of the material was determined. The applicability of three-parameter Weibull analysis was also investigated. A design methodology based on the combination of elementary stress analysis and Weibull statistical analysis is advanced and applied to the design of a spherical pressure vessel shell. The results from this design methodology are compared with results from the applicable ASME pressure vessel code.

Advances in the analysis and design of constant-torque springs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGuire, John R.; Yura, Joseph A.

1996-01-01

In order to improve the design procedure of constant-torque springs used in aerospace applications, several new analysis techniques have been developed. These techniques make it possible to accurately construct a torque-rotation curve for any general constant-torque spring configuration. These new techniques allow for friction in the system to be included in the analysis, an area of analysis that has heretofore been unexplored. The new analysis techniques also include solutions for the deflected shape of the spring as well as solutions for drum and roller support reaction forces. A design procedure incorporating these new capabilities is presented.

CFD Analysis of Turbo Expander for Cryogenic Refrigeration and Liquefaction Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Rahul; Sam, Ashish Alex; Ghosh, Parthasarathi

Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis has emerged as a necessary tool for designing of turbomachinery. It helps to understand the various sources of inefficiency through investigation of flow physics of the turbine. In this paper, 3D turbulent flow analysis of a cryogenic turboexpander for small scale air separation was performed using Ansys CFX®. The turboexpander has been designed following assumptions based on meanlineblade generation procedure provided in open literature and good engineering judgement. Through analysis of flow field, modifications and further analysis required to evolve a more robust design procedure, have been suggested.

System analysis in rotorcraft design: The past decade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galloway, Thomas L.

1988-01-01

Rapid advances in the technology of electronic digital computers and the need for an integrated synthesis approach in developing future rotorcraft programs has led to increased emphasis on system analysis techniques in rotorcraft design. The task in systems analysis is to deal with complex, interdependent, and conflicting requirements in a structured manner so rational and objective decisions can be made. Whether the results are wisdom or rubbish depends upon the validity and sometimes more importantly, the consistency of the inputs, the correctness of the analysis, and a sensible choice of measures of effectiveness to draw conclusions. In rotorcraft design this means combining design requirements, technology assessment, sensitivity analysis and reviews techniques currently in use by NASA and Army organizations in developing research programs and vehicle specifications for rotorcraft. These procedures span simple graphical approaches to comprehensive analysis on large mainframe computers. Examples of recent applications to military and civil missions are highlighted.

Tool for Rapid Analysis of Monte Carlo Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Restrepo, Carolina; McCall, Kurt E.; Hurtado, John E.

2011-01-01

Designing a spacecraft, or any other complex engineering system, requires extensive simulation and analysis work. Oftentimes, the large amounts of simulation data generated are very di cult and time consuming to analyze, with the added risk of overlooking potentially critical problems in the design. The authors have developed a generic data analysis tool that can quickly sort through large data sets and point an analyst to the areas in the data set that cause specific types of failures. The Tool for Rapid Analysis of Monte Carlo simulations (TRAM) has been used in recent design and analysis work for the Orion vehicle, greatly decreasing the time it takes to evaluate performance requirements. A previous version of this tool was developed to automatically identify driving design variables in Monte Carlo data sets. This paper describes a new, parallel version, of TRAM implemented on a graphical processing unit, and presents analysis results for NASA's Orion Monte Carlo data to demonstrate its capabilities.

14 CFR 33.62 - Stress analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Stress analysis. 33.62 Section 33.62... STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.62 Stress analysis. A stress analysis must be performed on each turbine engine showing the design safety margin of each turbine...

14 CFR 33.62 - Stress analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Stress analysis. 33.62 Section 33.62... STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.62 Stress analysis. A stress analysis must be performed on each turbine engine showing the design safety margin of each turbine...

14 CFR 33.62 - Stress analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Stress analysis. 33.62 Section 33.62... STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.62 Stress analysis. A stress analysis must be performed on each turbine engine showing the design safety margin of each turbine...

Bayes factor design analysis: Planning for compelling evidence.

PubMed

Schönbrodt, Felix D; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2018-02-01

A sizeable literature exists on the use of frequentist power analysis in the null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST) paradigm to facilitate the design of informative experiments. In contrast, there is almost no literature that discusses the design of experiments when Bayes factors (BFs) are used as a measure of evidence. Here we explore Bayes Factor Design Analysis (BFDA) as a useful tool to design studies for maximum efficiency and informativeness. We elaborate on three possible BF designs, (a) a fixed-n design, (b) an open-ended Sequential Bayes Factor (SBF) design, where researchers can test after each participant and can stop data collection whenever there is strong evidence for either [Formula: see text] or [Formula: see text], and (c) a modified SBF design that defines a maximal sample size where data collection is stopped regardless of the current state of evidence. We demonstrate how the properties of each design (i.e., expected strength of evidence, expected sample size, expected probability of misleading evidence, expected probability of weak evidence) can be evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations and equip researchers with the necessary information to compute their own Bayesian design analyses.

Multidisciplinary design optimization using multiobjective formulation techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Pagaldipti, Narayanan S.

1995-01-01

This report addresses the development of a multidisciplinary optimization procedure using an efficient semi-analytical sensitivity analysis technique and multilevel decomposition for the design of aerospace vehicles. A semi-analytical sensitivity analysis procedure is developed for calculating computational grid sensitivities and aerodynamic design sensitivities. Accuracy and efficiency of the sensitivity analysis procedure is established through comparison of the results with those obtained using a finite difference technique. The developed sensitivity analysis technique are then used within a multidisciplinary optimization procedure for designing aerospace vehicles. The optimization problem, with the integration of aerodynamics and structures, is decomposed into two levels. Optimization is performed for improved aerodynamic performance at the first level and improved structural performance at the second level. Aerodynamic analysis is performed by solving the three-dimensional parabolized Navier Stokes equations. A nonlinear programming technique and an approximate analysis procedure are used for optimization. The proceduredeveloped is applied to design the wing of a high speed aircraft. Results obtained show significant improvements in the aircraft aerodynamic and structural performance when compared to a reference or baseline configuration. The use of the semi-analytical sensitivity technique provides significant computational savings.

Dynamic Systems Analysis for Turbine Based Aero Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Csank, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

The aircraft engine design process seeks to optimize the overall system-level performance, weight, and cost for a given concept. Steady-state simulations and data are used to identify trade-offs that should be balanced to optimize the system in a process known as systems analysis. These systems analysis simulations and data may not adequately capture the true performance trade-offs that exist during transient operation. Dynamic systems analysis provides the capability for assessing the dynamic tradeoffs at an earlier stage of the engine design process. The dynamic systems analysis concept, developed tools, and potential benefit are presented in this paper. To provide this capability, the Tool for Turbine Engine Closed-loop Transient Analysis (TTECTrA) was developed to provide the user with an estimate of the closed-loop performance (response time) and operability (high pressure compressor surge margin) for a given engine design and set of control design requirements. TTECTrA along with engine deterioration information, can be used to develop a more generic relationship between performance and operability that can impact the engine design constraints and potentially lead to a more efficient engine.

Development of Innovative Design Processor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Y.S.; Park, C.O.

2004-07-01

The nuclear design analysis requires time-consuming and erroneous model-input preparation, code run, output analysis and quality assurance process. To reduce human effort and improve design quality and productivity, Innovative Design Processor (IDP) is being developed. Two basic principles of IDP are the document-oriented design and the web-based design. The document-oriented design is that, if the designer writes a design document called active document and feeds it to a special program, the final document with complete analysis, table and plots is made automatically. The active documents can be written with ordinary HTML editors or created automatically on the web, which ismore » another framework of IDP. Using the proper mix-up of server side and client side programming under the LAMP (Linux/Apache/MySQL/PHP) environment, the design process on the web is modeled as a design wizard style so that even a novice designer makes the design document easily. This automation using the IDP is now being implemented for all the reload design of Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP) type PWRs. The introduction of this process will allow large reduction in all reload design efforts of KSNP and provide a platform for design and R and D tasks of KNFC. (authors)« less

Software integration for automated stability analysis and design optimization of a bearingless rotor blade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunduz, Mustafa Emre

Many government agencies and corporations around the world have found the unique capabilities of rotorcraft indispensable. Incorporating such capabilities into rotorcraft design poses extra challenges because it is a complicated multidisciplinary process. The concept of applying several disciplines to the design and optimization processes may not be new, but it does not currently seem to be widely accepted in industry. The reason for this might be the lack of well-known tools for realizing a complete multidisciplinary design and analysis of a product. This study aims to propose a method that enables engineers in some design disciplines to perform a fairly detailed analysis and optimization of a design using commercially available software as well as codes developed at Georgia Tech. The ultimate goal is when the system is set up properly, the CAD model of the design, including all subsystems, will be automatically updated as soon as a new part or assembly is added to the design; or it will be updated when an analysis and/or an optimization is performed and the geometry needs to be modified. Designers and engineers will be involved in only checking the latest design for errors or adding/removing features. Such a design process will take dramatically less time to complete; therefore, it should reduce development time and costs. The optimization method is demonstrated on an existing helicopter rotor originally designed in the 1960's. The rotor is already an effective design with novel features. However, application of the optimization principles together with high-speed computing resulted in an even better design. The objective function to be minimized is related to the vibrations of the rotor system under gusty wind conditions. The design parameters are all continuous variables. Optimization is performed in a number of steps. First, the most crucial design variables of the objective function are identified. With these variables, Latin Hypercube Sampling method is used to probe the design space of several local minima and maxima. After analysis of numerous samples, an optimum configuration of the design that is more stable than that of the initial design is reached. The above process requires several software tools: CATIA as the CAD tool, ANSYS as the FEA tool, VABS for obtaining the cross-sectional structural properties, and DYMORE for the frequency and dynamic analysis of the rotor. MATLAB codes are also employed to generate input files and read output files of DYMORE. All these tools are connected using ModelCenter.

Security credentials management system (SCMS) design and analysis for the connected vehicle system : draft.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-12-27

This report presents an analysis by Booz Allen Hamilton (Booz Allen) of the technical design for the Security Credentials Management System (SCMS) intended to support communications security for the connected vehicle system. The SCMS technical design...

Principles of Experimental Design for Big Data Analysis.

PubMed

Drovandi, Christopher C; Holmes, Christopher; McGree, James M; Mengersen, Kerrie; Richardson, Sylvia; Ryan, Elizabeth G

2017-08-01

Big Datasets are endemic, but are often notoriously difficult to analyse because of their size, heterogeneity and quality. The purpose of this paper is to open a discourse on the potential for modern decision theoretic optimal experimental design methods, which by their very nature have traditionally been applied prospectively, to improve the analysis of Big Data through retrospective designed sampling in order to answer particular questions of interest. By appealing to a range of examples, it is suggested that this perspective on Big Data modelling and analysis has the potential for wide generality and advantageous inferential and computational properties. We highlight current hurdles and open research questions surrounding efficient computational optimisation in using retrospective designs, and in part this paper is a call to the optimisation and experimental design communities to work together in the field of Big Data analysis.

Principles of Experimental Design for Big Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Drovandi, Christopher C; Holmes, Christopher; McGree, James M; Mengersen, Kerrie; Richardson, Sylvia; Ryan, Elizabeth G

2016-01-01

Big Datasets are endemic, but are often notoriously difficult to analyse because of their size, heterogeneity and quality. The purpose of this paper is to open a discourse on the potential for modern decision theoretic optimal experimental design methods, which by their very nature have traditionally been applied prospectively, to improve the analysis of Big Data through retrospective designed sampling in order to answer particular questions of interest. By appealing to a range of examples, it is suggested that this perspective on Big Data modelling and analysis has the potential for wide generality and advantageous inferential and computational properties. We highlight current hurdles and open research questions surrounding efficient computational optimisation in using retrospective designs, and in part this paper is a call to the optimisation and experimental design communities to work together in the field of Big Data analysis. PMID:28883686

Evaluation of Analysis Techniques for Fluted-Core Sandwich Cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lovejoy, Andrew E.; Schultz, Marc R.

2012-01-01

Buckling-critical launch-vehicle structures require structural concepts that have high bending stiffness and low mass. Fluted-core, also known as truss-core, sandwich construction is one such concept. In an effort to identify an analysis method appropriate for the preliminary design of fluted-core cylinders, the current paper presents and compares results from several analysis techniques applied to a specific composite fluted-core test article. The analysis techniques are evaluated in terms of their ease of use and for their appropriateness at certain stages throughout a design analysis cycle (DAC). Current analysis techniques that provide accurate determination of the global buckling load are not readily applicable early in the DAC, such as during preliminary design, because they are too costly to run. An analytical approach that neglects transverse-shear deformation is easily applied during preliminary design, but the lack of transverse-shear deformation results in global buckling load predictions that are significantly higher than those from more detailed analysis methods. The current state of the art is either too complex to be applied for preliminary design, or is incapable of the accuracy required to determine global buckling loads for fluted-core cylinders. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an analytical method for calculating global buckling loads of fluted-core cylinders that includes transverse-shear deformations, and that can be easily incorporated in preliminary design.

The design guidelines of mobile augmented reality for tourism in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukri, Saidatul A'isyah Ahmad; Arshad, Haslina; Abidin, Rimaniza Zainal

2017-10-01

Recent data shows that one in every five people in the world owns a Smartphone and spends most of their time on the phone using apps. Visitors prefer this type of portable, convenient, practical and simple technology when travelling, especially geo location-enabled applications such as the GPS. The aim of this paper is to develop design guidelines for Mobile Augmented Reality (MAR) for tourism. From the analysis of existing design guidelines of Mobile Augmented Reality (MAR) for tourism, an application design guidelines are proposed based on Human-computer interaction principle and usability design that would fulfils the user's requirement in a better way. Six design principles were examined in this analysis. The analysis identified eleven suggestions for design principles. These recommendations are offered towards designing principles and developing prototype app for tourist in Malaysia. This paper identifies design principles to reduce cognitive overhead of tourist, learn ability and suitable context for providing content whiles their travel in Malaysia.

Space shuttle main engine controller assembly, phase C-D. [with lagging system design and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

System design and system analysis and simulation are slightly behind schedule, while design verification testing has improved. Input/output circuit design has improved, but digital computer unit (DCU) and mechanical design continue to lag. Part procurement was impacted by delays in printed circuit board, assembly drawing releases. These are the result of problems in generating suitable printed circuit artwork for the very complex and high density multilayer boards.

An Ontology for State Analysis: Formalizing the Mapping to SysML

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wagner, David A.; Bennett, Matthew B.; Karban, Robert; Rouquette, Nicolas; Jenkins, Steven; Ingham, Michel

2012-01-01

State Analysis is a methodology developed over the last decade for architecting, designing and documenting complex control systems. Although it was originally conceived for designing robotic spacecraft, recent applications include the design of control systems for large ground-based telescopes. The European Southern Observatory (ESO) began a project to design the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), which will require coordinated control of over a thousand articulated mirror segments. The designers are using State Analysis as a methodology and the Systems Modeling Language (SysML) as a modeling and documentation language in this task. To effectively apply the State Analysis methodology in this context it became necessary to provide ontological definitions of the concepts and relations in State Analysis and greater flexibility through a mapping of State Analysis into a practical extension of SysML. The ontology provides the formal basis for verifying compliance with State Analysis semantics including architectural constraints. The SysML extension provides the practical basis for applying the State Analysis methodology with SysML tools. This paper will discuss the method used to develop these formalisms (the ontology), the formalisms themselves, the mapping to SysML and approach to using these formalisms to specify a control system and enforce architectural constraints in a SysML model.

Designing an End-to-End System for Data Storage, Analysis, and Visualization for an Urban Environmental Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, M. P.; Welty, C.; Gangopadhyay, A.; Karabatis, G.; Chen, Z.

2006-05-01

The urban environment is formed by complex interactions between natural and human dominated systems, the study of which requires the collection and analysis of very large datasets that span many disciplines. Recent advances in sensor technology and automated data collection have improved the ability to monitor urban environmental systems and are making the idea of an urban environmental observatory a reality. This in turn has created a number of potential challenges in data management and analysis. We present the design of an end-to-end system to store, analyze, and visualize data from a prototype urban environmental observatory based at the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, a National Science Foundation Long Term Ecological Research site (BES LTER). We first present an object-relational design of an operational database to store high resolution spatial datasets as well as data from sensor networks, archived data from the BES LTER, data from external sources such as USGS NWIS, EPA Storet, and metadata. The second component of the system design includes a spatiotemporal data warehouse consisting of a data staging plan and a multidimensional data model designed for the spatiotemporal analysis of monitoring data. The system design also includes applications for multi-resolution exploratory data analysis, multi-resolution data mining, and spatiotemporal visualization based on the spatiotemporal data warehouse. Also the system design includes interfaces with water quality models such as HSPF, SWMM, and SWAT, and applications for real-time sensor network visualization, data discovery, data download, QA/QC, and backup and recovery, all of which are based on the operational database. The system design includes both internet and workstation-based interfaces. Finally we present the design of a laboratory for spatiotemporal analysis and visualization as well as real-time monitoring of the sensor network.

DESIGN ANALYSIS FOR THE DEFENSE HIGH-LEVEL WASTE DISPOSAL CONTAINER

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

G. Radulesscu; J.S. Tang

The purpose of ''Design Analysis for the Defense High-Level Waste Disposal Container'' analysis is to technically define the defense high-level waste (DHLW) disposal container/waste package using the Waste Package Department's (WPD) design methods, as documented in ''Waste Package Design Methodology Report'' (CRWMS M&O [Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor] 2000a). The DHLW disposal container is intended for disposal of commercial high-level waste (HLW) and DHLW (including immobilized plutonium waste forms), placed within disposable canisters. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-managed spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in disposable canisters may also be placed in a DHLW disposal container alongmore » with HLW forms. The objective of this analysis is to demonstrate that the DHLW disposal container/waste package satisfies the project requirements, as embodied in Defense High Level Waste Disposal Container System Description Document (SDD) (CRWMS M&O 1999a), and additional criteria, as identified in Waste Package Design Sensitivity Report (CRWMS M&Q 2000b, Table 4). The analysis briefly describes the analytical methods appropriate for the design of the DHLW disposal contained waste package, and summarizes the results of the calculations that illustrate the analytical methods. However, the analysis is limited to the calculations selected for the DHLW disposal container in support of the Site Recommendation (SR) (CRWMS M&O 2000b, Section 7). The scope of this analysis is restricted to the design of the codisposal waste package of the Savannah River Site (SRS) DHLW glass canisters and the Training, Research, Isotopes General Atomics (TRIGA) SNF loaded in a short 18-in.-outer diameter (OD) DOE standardized SNF canister. This waste package is representative of the waste packages that consist of the DHLW disposal container, the DHLW/HLW glass canisters, and the DOE-managed SNF in disposable canisters. The intended use of this analysis is to support Site Recommendation reports and to assist in the development of WPD drawings. Activities described in this analysis were conducted in accordance with the Development Plan ''Design Analysis for the Defense High-Level Waste Disposal Container'' (CRWMS M&O 2000c) with no deviations from the plan.« less

Parametric optimization and design validation based on finite element analysis of hybrid socket adapter for transfemoral prosthetic knee.

PubMed

Kumar, Neelesh

2014-10-01

Finite element analysis has been universally employed for the stress and strain analysis in lower extremity prosthetics. The socket adapter was the principal subject of interest due to its importance in deciding the knee motion range. This article focused on the static and dynamic stress analysis of the designed hybrid adapter developed by the authors. A standard mechanical design validation approach using von Mises was followed. Four materials were considered for the analysis, namely, carbon fiber, oil-filled nylon, Al-6061, and mild steel. The paper analyses the static and dynamic stress on designed hybrid adapter which incorporates features of conventional male and female socket adapters. The finite element analysis was carried out for possible different angles of knee flexion simulating static and dynamic gait situation. Research was carried out on available design of socket adapter. Mechanical design of hybrid adapter was conceptualized and a CAD model was generated using Inventor modelling software. Static and dynamic stress analysis was carried out on different materials for optimization. The finite element analysis was carried out on the software Autodesk Inventor Professional Ver. 2011. The peak value of von Mises stress occurred in the neck region of the adapter and in the lower face region at rod eye-adapter junction in static and dynamic analyses, respectively. Oil-filled nylon was found to be the best material among the four with respect to strength, weight, and cost. Research investigations on newer materials for development of improved prosthesis will immensely benefit the amputees. The study analyze the static and dynamic stress on the knee joint adapter to provide better material used for hybrid design of adapter. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2013.

Multidisciplinary Analysis of the NEXUS Precursor Space Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Weck, Olivier L.; Miller, David W.; Mosier, Gary E.

2002-12-01

A multidisciplinary analysis is demonstrated for the NEXUS space telescope precursor mission. This mission was originally designed as an in-space technology testbed for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST). One of the main challenges is to achieve a very tight pointing accuracy with a sub-pixel line-of-sight (LOS) jitter budget and a root-mean-square (RMS) wavefront error smaller than λ/50 despite the presence of electronic and mechanical disturbances sources. The analysis starts with the assessment of the performance for an initial design, which turns out not to meet the requirements. Twentyfive design parameters from structures, optics, dynamics and controls are then computed in a sensitivity and isoperformance analysis, in search of better designs. Isoperformance allows finding an acceptable design that is well "balanced" and does not place undue burden on a single subsystem. An error budget analysis shows the contributions of individual disturbance sources. This paper might be helpful in analyzing similar, innovative space telescope systems in the future.

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Eldred, Michael S.

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components requiredmore » for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.« less

Finite element analysis of container ship's cargo hold using ANSYS and POSEIDON software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanny, Tania Tamiz; Akter, Naznin; Amin, Osman Md.

2017-12-01

Nowadays ship structural analysis has become an integral part of the preliminary ship design providing further support for the development and detail design of ship structures. Structural analyses of container ship's cargo holds are carried out for the balancing of their safety and capacity, as those ships are exposed to the high risk of structural damage during voyage. Two different design methodologies have been considered for the structural analysis of a container ship's cargo hold. One is rule-based methodology and the other is a more conventional software based analyses. The rule based analysis is done by DNV-GL's software POSEIDON and the conventional package based analysis is done by ANSYS structural module. Both methods have been applied to analyze some of the mechanical properties of the model such as total deformation, stress-strain distribution, Von Mises stress, Fatigue etc., following different design bases and approaches, to indicate some guidance's for further improvements in ship structural design.

Orion Orbit Control Design and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Mark; Gonzalez, Rodolfo; Sims, Christopher

2007-01-01

The analysis of candidate thruster configurations for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) is presented. Six candidate configurations were considered for the prime contractor baseline design. The analysis included analytical assessments of control authority, control precision, efficiency and robustness, as well as simulation assessments of control performance. The principles used in the analytic assessments of controllability, robustness and fuel performance are covered and results provided for the configurations assessed. Simulation analysis was conducted using a pulse width modulated, 6 DOF reaction system control law with a simplex-based thruster selection algorithm. Control laws were automatically derived from hardware configuration parameters including thruster locations, directions, magnitude and specific impulse, as well as vehicle mass properties. This parameterized controller allowed rapid assessment of multiple candidate layouts. Simulation results are presented for final phase rendezvous and docking, as well as low lunar orbit attitude hold. Finally, on-going analysis to consider alternate Service Module designs and to assess the pilot-ability of the baseline design are discussed to provide a status of orbit control design work to date.

Framework for Multidisciplinary Analysis, Design, and Optimization with High-Fidelity Analysis Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orr, Stanley A.; Narducci, Robert P.

2009-01-01

A plan is presented for the development of a high fidelity multidisciplinary optimization process for rotorcraft. The plan formulates individual disciplinary design problems, identifies practical high-fidelity tools and processes that can be incorporated in an automated optimization environment, and establishes statements of the multidisciplinary design problem including objectives, constraints, design variables, and cross-disciplinary dependencies. Five key disciplinary areas are selected in the development plan. These are rotor aerodynamics, rotor structures and dynamics, fuselage aerodynamics, fuselage structures, and propulsion / drive system. Flying qualities and noise are included as ancillary areas. Consistency across engineering disciplines is maintained with a central geometry engine that supports all multidisciplinary analysis. The multidisciplinary optimization process targets the preliminary design cycle where gross elements of the helicopter have been defined. These might include number of rotors and rotor configuration (tandem, coaxial, etc.). It is at this stage that sufficient configuration information is defined to perform high-fidelity analysis. At the same time there is enough design freedom to influence a design. The rotorcraft multidisciplinary optimization tool is built and substantiated throughout its development cycle in a staged approach by incorporating disciplines sequentially.

Update on Integrated Optical Design Analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, James D., Jr.; Troy, Ed

2003-01-01

Updated information on the Integrated Optical Design Analyzer (IODA) computer program has become available. IODA was described in Software for Multidisciplinary Concurrent Optical Design (MFS-31452), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 25, No. 10 (October 2001), page 8a. To recapitulate: IODA facilitates multidisciplinary concurrent engineering of highly precise optical instruments. The architecture of IODA was developed by reviewing design processes and software in an effort to automate design procedures. IODA significantly reduces design iteration cycle time and eliminates many potential sources of error. IODA integrates the modeling efforts of a team of experts in different disciplines (e.g., optics, structural analysis, and heat transfer) working at different locations and provides seamless fusion of data among thermal, structural, and optical models used to design an instrument. IODA is compatible with data files generated by the NASTRAN structural-analysis program and the Code V (Registered Trademark) optical-analysis program, and can be used to couple analyses performed by these two programs. IODA supports multiple-load-case analysis for quickly accomplishing trade studies. IODA can also model the transient response of an instrument under the influence of dynamic loads and disturbances.

Sustainable Design Approach: A case study of BIM use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelhameed, Wael

2017-11-01

Achieving sustainable design in areas such as energy-efficient design depends largely on the accuracy of the analysis performed after the design is completed with all its components and material details. There are different analysis approaches and methods that predict relevant values and metrics such as U value, energy use and energy savings. Although certain differences in the accuracy of these approaches and methods have been recorded, this research paper does not focus on such matter, where determining the reason for discrepancies between those approaches and methods is difficult, because all error sources act simultaneously. The research paper rather introduces an approach through which BIM, building information modelling, can be utilised during the initial phases of the designing process, by analysing the values and metrics of sustainable design before going into the design details of a building. Managing all of the project drawings in a single file, BIM -building information modelling- is well known as one digital platform that offers a multidisciplinary detailed design -AEC model (Barison and Santos, 2010, Welle et.al., 2011). The paper presents in general BIM use in the early phases of the design process, in order to achieve certain required areas of sustainable design. The paper proceeds to introduce BIM use in specific areas such as site selection, wind velocity and building orientation, in terms of reaching the farther possible sustainable solution. In the initial phases of designing, material details and building components are not fully specified or selected yet. The designer usually focuses on zoning, topology, circulations, and other design requirements. The proposed approach employs the strategies and analysis of BIM use during those initial design phases in order to have the analysis and results of each solution or alternative design. The stakeholders and designers would have a better effective decision making process with a full clarity of each alternative's consequences. The architect would settle down and proceed in the alternative design of the best sustainable analysis. In later design stages, using the sustainable types of materials such as insulation, cladding, etc., and applying sustainable building components such as doors, windows, etc. would add more improvements and enhancements in reaching better values and metrics. The paper describes the methodology of this design approach through BIM strategies adopted in design creation. Case studies of architectural designs are used to highlight the details and benefits of this proposed approach.

Statistical Analysis for the Solomon Four-Group Design. Research Report 99-06.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Engelenburg, Gijsbert

The Solomon four-group design (R. Solomon, 1949) is a very useful experimental design to investigate the main effect of a pretest and the interaction of pretest and treatment. Although the design was proposed half a century ago, no proper data analysis techniques have been available. This paper describes how data from the Solomon four-group design…

Design of radar receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, M. A.

This handbook treats the design and analysis of of pulsed radar receivers, with emphasis on elements (especially IC elements) that implement optimal and suboptimal algorithms. The design methodology is developed from the viewpoint of statistical communications theory. Particular consideration is given to the synthesis of single-channel and multichannel detectors, the design of analog and digital signal-processing devices, and the analysis of IF amplifiers.

Game Design Narrative for Learning: Appropriating Adventure Game Design Narrative Devices and Techniques for the Design of Interactive Learning Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickey, Michele D.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this conceptual analysis is to investigate how contemporary video and computer games might inform instructional design by looking at how narrative devices and techniques support problem solving within complex, multimodal environments. Specifically, this analysis presents a brief overview of game genres and the role of narrative in…

Design Details for the Aquantis 2.5 MW Ocean Current Generation Device

DOE Data Explorer

Banko, Rich; Coakley, David; Colegrove, Dana; Fleming, Alex; Zierke, William; Ebner, Stephen

2015-06-03

Items in this submission provide the detailed design of the Aquantis Ocean Current Turbine and accompanying analysis documents, including preliminary designs, verification of design reports, CAD drawings of the hydrostatic drivetrain, a test plan and an operating conditions simulation report. This dataset also contains analysis trade off studies of fixed vs. variable pitch and 2 vs. 3 blades.

Cognitive Task Analysis of Experts in Designing Multimedia Learning Object Guideline (M-LOG)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Razak, Rafiza Abdul; Palanisamy, Punithavathy

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to design and develop a set of guidelines for multimedia learning objects to inform instructional designers (IDs) about the procedures involved in the process of content analysis. This study was motivated by the absence of standardized procedures in the beginning phase of the multimedia learning object design which is…

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Volume II: Experiment Salmonid Survival with Combined PIT-CWT Tagging.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newman, Ken

1997-06-01

Experiment designs to estimate the effect of transportation on survival and return rates of Columbia River system salmonids are discussed along with statistical modeling techniques. Besides transportation, river flow and dam spill are necessary components in the design and analysis otherwise questions as to the effects of reservoir drawdowns and increased dam spill may never be satisfactorily answered. Four criteria for comparing different experiment designs are: (1) feasibility, (2) clarity of results, (3) scope of inference, and (4) time to learn. In this report, alternative designs for conducting experimental manipulations of smolt tagging studies to study effects of river operationsmore » such as flow levels, spill fractions, and transporting outmigrating salmonids around dams in the Columbia River system are presented. The principles of study design discussed in this report have broad implications for the many studies proposed to investigate both smolt and adult survival relationships. The concepts are illustrated for the case of the design and analysis of smolt transportation experiments. The merits of proposed transportation studies should be measured relative to these principles of proper statistical design and analysis.« less

Teaching Risk Analysis in an Aircraft Gas Turbine Engine Design Capstone Course

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics 1 Teaching Risk Analysis in an Aircraft Gas Turbine Engine Design Capstone Course...development costs, engine production costs, and scheduling (Byerley A. R., 2013) as well as the linkage between turbine inlet temperature, blade cooling...analysis SE majors have studied and how this is linked to the specific issues they must face in aircraft gas turbine engine design. Aeronautical and

Factorial Design: An Eight Factor Experiment Using Paper Helicopters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozma, Michael

1996-01-01

The goal of this paper is to present the analysis of the multi-factor experiment (factorial design) conducted in EG490, Junior Design at Loyola College in Maryland. The discussion of this paper concludes the experimental analysis and ties the individual class papers together.

Failure Mode Identification Through Clustering Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arunajadai, Srikesh G.; Stone, Robert B.; Tumer, Irem Y.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Research has shown that nearly 80% of the costs and problems are created in product development and that cost and quality are essentially designed into products in the conceptual stage. Currently, failure identification procedures (such as FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis), FMECA (Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis)) and design of experiments are being used for quality control and for the detection of potential failure modes during the detail design stage or post-product launch. Though all of these methods have their own advantages, they do not give information as to what are the predominant failures that a designer should focus on while designing a product. This work uses a functional approach to identify failure modes, which hypothesizes that similarities exist between different failure modes based on the functionality of the product/component. In this paper, a statistical clustering procedure is proposed to retrieve information on the set of predominant failures that a function experiences. The various stages of the methodology are illustrated using a hypothetical design example.

Design oriented structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giles, Gary L.

1994-01-01

Desirable characteristics and benefits of design oriented analysis methods are described and illustrated by presenting a synoptic description of the development and uses of the Equivalent Laminated Plate Solution (ELAPS) computer code. ELAPS is a design oriented structural analysis method which is intended for use in the early design of aircraft wing structures. Model preparation is minimized by using a few large plate segments to model the wing box structure. Computational efficiency is achieved by using a limited number of global displacement functions that encompass all segments over the wing planform. Coupling with other codes is facilitated since the output quantities such as deflections and stresses are calculated as continuous functions over the plate segments. Various aspects of the ELAPS development are discussed including the analytical formulation, verification of results by comparison with finite element analysis results, coupling with other codes, and calculation of sensitivity derivatives. The effectiveness of ELAPS for multidisciplinary design application is illustrated by describing its use in design studies of high speed civil transport wing structures.

Launch vehicle design and GNC sizing with ASTOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremaschi, Francesco; Winter, Sebastian; Rossi, Valerio; Wiegand, Andreas

2018-03-01

The European Space Agency (ESA) is currently involved in several activities related to launch vehicle designs (Future Launcher Preparatory Program, Ariane 6, VEGA evolutions, etc.). Within these activities, ESA has identified the importance of developing a simulation infrastructure capable of supporting the multi-disciplinary design and preliminary guidance navigation and control (GNC) design of different launch vehicle configurations. Astos Solutions has developed the multi-disciplinary optimization and launcher GNC simulation and sizing tool (LGSST) under ESA contract. The functionality is integrated in the Analysis, Simulation and Trajectory Optimization Software for space applications (ASTOS) and is intended to be used from the early design phases up to phase B1 activities. ASTOS shall enable the user to perform detailed vehicle design tasks and assessment of GNC systems, covering all aspects of rapid configuration and scenario management, sizing of stages, trajectory-dependent estimation of structural masses, rigid and flexible body dynamics, navigation, guidance and control, worst case analysis, launch safety analysis, performance analysis, and reporting.

Microgravity isolation system design: A modern control analysis framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hampton, R. D.; Knospe, C. R.; Allaire, P. E.; Grodsinsky, C. M.

1994-01-01

Many acceleration-sensitive, microgravity science experiments will require active vibration isolation from the manned orbiters on which they will be mounted. The isolation problem, especially in the case of a tethered payload, is a complex three-dimensional one that is best suited to modern-control design methods. These methods, although more powerful than their classical counterparts, can nonetheless go only so far in meeting the design requirements for practical systems. Once a tentative controller design is available, it must still be evaluated to determine whether or not it is fully acceptable, and to compare it with other possible design candidates. Realistically, such evaluation will be an inherent part of a necessary iterative design process. In this paper, an approach is presented for applying complex mu-analysis methods to a closed-loop vibration isolation system (experiment plus controller). An analysis framework is presented for evaluating nominal stability, nominal performance, robust stability, and robust performance of active microgravity isolation systems, with emphasis on the effective use of mu-analysis methods.

Lessons learned from IDeAl - 33 recommendations from the IDeAl-net about design and analysis of small population clinical trials.

PubMed

Hilgers, Ralf-Dieter; Bogdan, Malgorzata; Burman, Carl-Fredrik; Dette, Holger; Karlsson, Mats; König, Franz; Male, Christoph; Mentré, France; Molenberghs, Geert; Senn, Stephen

2018-05-11

IDeAl (Integrated designs and analysis of small population clinical trials) is an EU funded project developing new statistical design and analysis methodologies for clinical trials in small population groups. Here we provide an overview of IDeAl findings and give recommendations to applied researchers. The description of the findings is broken down by the nine scientific IDeAl work packages and summarizes results from the project's more than 60 publications to date in peer reviewed journals. In addition, we applied text mining to evaluate the publications and the IDeAl work packages' output in relation to the design and analysis terms derived from in the IRDiRC task force report on small population clinical trials. The results are summarized, describing the developments from an applied viewpoint. The main result presented here are 33 practical recommendations drawn from the work, giving researchers a comprehensive guidance to the improved methodology. In particular, the findings will help design and analyse efficient clinical trials in rare diseases with limited number of patients available. We developed a network representation relating the hot topics developed by the IRDiRC task force on small population clinical trials to IDeAl's work as well as relating important methodologies by IDeAl's definition necessary to consider in design and analysis of small-population clinical trials. These network representation establish a new perspective on design and analysis of small-population clinical trials. IDeAl has provided a huge number of options to refine the statistical methodology for small-population clinical trials from various perspectives. A total of 33 recommendations developed and related to the work packages help the researcher to design small population clinical trial. The route to improvements is displayed in IDeAl-network representing important statistical methodological skills necessary to design and analysis of small-population clinical trials. The methods are ready for use.

On the relationship between matched filter theory as applied to gust loads and phased design loads analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeiler, Thomas A.; Pototzky, Anthony S.

1989-01-01

A theoretical basis and example calculations are given that demonstrate the relationship between the Matched Filter Theory approach to the calculation of time-correlated gust loads and Phased Design Load Analysis in common use in the aerospace industry. The relationship depends upon the duality between Matched Filter Theory and Random Process Theory and upon the fact that Random Process Theory is used in Phased Design Loads Analysis in determining an equiprobable loads design ellipse. Extensive background information describing the relevant points of Phased Design Loads Analysis, calculating time-correlated gust loads with Matched Filter Theory, and the duality between Matched Filter Theory and Random Process Theory is given. It is then shown that the time histories of two time-correlated gust load responses, determined using the Matched Filter Theory approach, can be plotted as parametric functions of time and that the resulting plot, when superposed upon the design ellipse corresponding to the two loads, is tangent to the ellipse. The question is raised of whether or not it is possible for a parametric load plot to extend outside the associated design ellipse. If it is possible, then the use of the equiprobable loads design ellipse will not be a conservative design practice in some circumstances.

Designers Workbench: Towards Real-Time Immersive Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuester, F; Duchaineau, M A; Hamann, B

2001-10-03

This paper introduces the DesignersWorkbench, a semi-immersive virtual environment for two-handed modeling, sculpting and analysis tasks. The paper outlines the fundamental tools, design metaphors and hardware components required for an intuitive real-time modeling system. As companies focus on streamlining productivity to cope with global competition, the migration to computer-aided design (CAD), computer-aided manufacturing (CAM), and computer-aided engineering (CAE) systems has established a new backbone of modern industrial product development. However, traditionally a product design frequently originates from a clay model that, after digitization, forms the basis for the numerical description of CAD primitives. The DesignersWorkbench aims at closing this technologymore » or ''digital gap'' experienced by design and CAD engineers by transforming the classical design paradigm into its filly integrated digital and virtual analog allowing collaborative development in a semi-immersive virtual environment. This project emphasizes two key components from the classical product design cycle: freeform modeling and analysis. In the freeform modeling stage, content creation in the form of two-handed sculpting of arbitrary objects using polygonal, volumetric or mathematically defined primitives is emphasized, whereas the analysis component provides the tools required for pre- and post-processing steps for finite element analysis tasks applied to the created models.« less

Transition of a Three-Dimensional Unsteady Viscous Flow Analysis from a Research Environment to the Design Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorney, Suzanne; Dorney, Daniel J.; Huber, Frank; Sheffler, David A.; Turner, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The advent of advanced computer architectures and parallel computing have led to a revolutionary change in the design process for turbomachinery components. Two- and three-dimensional steady-state computational flow procedures are now routinely used in the early stages of design. Unsteady flow analyses, however, are just beginning to be incorporated into design systems. This paper outlines the transition of a three-dimensional unsteady viscous flow analysis from the research environment into the design environment. The test case used to demonstrate the analysis is the full turbine system (high-pressure turbine, inter-turbine duct and low-pressure turbine) from an advanced turboprop engine.

Survey of editors and reviewers of high-impact psychology journals: statistical and research design problems in submitted manuscripts.

PubMed

Harris, Alex; Reeder, Rachelle; Hyun, Jenny

2011-01-01

The authors surveyed 21 editors and reviewers from major psychology journals to identify and describe the statistical and design errors they encounter most often and to get their advice regarding prevention of these problems. Content analysis of the text responses revealed themes in 3 major areas: (a) problems with research design and reporting (e.g., lack of an a priori power analysis, lack of congruence between research questions and study design/analysis, failure to adequately describe statistical procedures); (b) inappropriate data analysis (e.g., improper use of analysis of variance, too many statistical tests without adjustments, inadequate strategy for addressing missing data); and (c) misinterpretation of results. If researchers attended to these common methodological and analytic issues, the scientific quality of manuscripts submitted to high-impact psychology journals might be significantly improved.

Structural Optimization in automotive design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bennett, J. A.; Botkin, M. E.

1984-01-01

Although mathematical structural optimization has been an active research area for twenty years, there has been relatively little penetration into the design process. Experience indicates that often this is due to the traditional layout-analysis design process. In many cases, optimization efforts have been outgrowths of analysis groups which are themselves appendages to the traditional design process. As a result, optimization is often introduced into the design process too late to have a significant effect because many potential design variables have already been fixed. A series of examples are given to indicate how structural optimization has been effectively integrated into the design process.

Automated Tetrahedral Mesh Generation for CFD Analysis of Aircraft in Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ordaz, Irian; Li, Wu; Campbell, Richard L.

2014-01-01

The paper introduces an automation process of generating a tetrahedral mesh for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of aircraft configurations in early conceptual design. The method was developed for CFD-based sonic boom analysis of supersonic configurations, but can be applied to aerodynamic analysis of aircraft configurations in any flight regime.

78 FR 13911 - Proposed Revision to Design of Structures, Components, Equipment and Systems

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-01

... Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants: LWR Edition,'' Section 3.7.1, ``Seismic Design Parameters,'' Section 3.7.2, ``Seismic System Analysis,'' Section 3.7.3, ``Seismic Subsystem Analysis,'' Section 3.8.1... and analysis issues, (2) updates to review interfaces to improve the efficiency and consistency of...

The Interaction between Multimedia Data Analysis and Theory Development in Design Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Nes, Fenna; Doorman, Michiel

2010-01-01

Mathematics education researchers conducting instruction experiments using a design research methodology are challenged with the analysis of often complex and large amounts of qualitative data. In this paper, we present two case studies that show how multimedia analysis software can greatly support video data analysis and theory development in…

The Development of Practical Item Analysis Program for Indonesian Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muhson, Ali; Lestari, Barkah; Supriyanto; Baroroh, Kiromim

2017-01-01

Item analysis has essential roles in the learning assessment. The item analysis program is designed to measure student achievement and instructional effectiveness. This study was aimed to develop item-analysis program and verify its feasibility. This study uses a Research and Development (R & D) model. The procedure includes designing and…

14 CFR 33.62 - Stress analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.62 Stress analysis. A stress analysis must be performed on each turbine engine showing the design safety margin of each turbine...

14 CFR 33.62 - Stress analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.62 Stress analysis. A stress analysis must be performed on each turbine engine showing the design safety margin of each turbine...

The design principles of edutainment system for autistic children with communication difficulties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Azham; Abdullah, Adil; Husni, Husniza

2016-08-01

Approximately 50% of all individuals with Autism have difficulties in developing functional language owing to communication deterioration. Mobile devices with installed educational games help these individuals feel more comfortable and relaxed doing such activities. Although numerous mobile applications are available for individuals with Autism, they are difficult to use; particularly in terms of user-interface design. From the analysis of existing apps for autistic children, an app design principles are proposed based on interaction design (IxD), that would fulfil the users' requirements in a better manner. Five applications were involved in this analysis. The analysis identified fifteen suggestions for the design principles. These recommendations are offered by this paper towards designing and developing a prototype app for autistic children. This paper introduces an edutainment-system design principle formulated to help develop the communication skills of children with Autism-spectrum disorders.

Interactive systems design and synthesis of future spacecraft concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, R. L.; Deryder, D. D.; Ferebee, M. J., Jr.

1984-01-01

An interactive systems design and synthesis is performed on future spacecraft concepts using the Interactive Design and Evaluation of Advanced spacecraft (IDEAS) computer-aided design and analysis system. The capabilities and advantages of the systems-oriented interactive computer-aided design and analysis system are described. The synthesis of both large antenna and space station concepts, and space station evolutionary growth is demonstrated. The IDEAS program provides the user with both an interactive graphics and an interactive computing capability which consists of over 40 multidisciplinary synthesis and analysis modules. Thus, the user can create, analyze and conduct parametric studies and modify Earth-orbiting spacecraft designs (space stations, large antennas or platforms, and technologically advanced spacecraft) at an interactive terminal with relative ease. The IDEAS approach is useful during the conceptual design phase of advanced space missions when a multiplicity of parameters and concepts must be analyzed and evaluated in a cost-effective and timely manner.

Are the Stress Drops of Small Earthquakes Good Predictors of the Stress Drops of Larger Earthquakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardebeck, J.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty in PSHA could be reduced through better estimates of stress drop for possible future large earthquakes. Studies of small earthquakes find spatial variability in stress drop; if large earthquakes have similar spatial patterns, their stress drops may be better predicted using the stress drops of small local events. This regionalization implies the variance with respect to the local mean stress drop may be smaller than the variance with respect to the global mean. I test this idea using the Shearer et al. (2006) stress drop catalog for M1.5-3.1 events in southern California. I apply quality control (Hauksson, 2015) and remove near-field aftershocks (Wooddell & Abrahamson, 2014). The standard deviation of the distribution of the log10 stress drop is reduced from 0.45 (factor of 3) to 0.31 (factor of 2) by normalizing each event's stress drop by the local mean. I explore whether a similar variance reduction is possible when using the Shearer catalog to predict stress drops of larger southern California events. For catalogs of moderate-sized events (e.g. Kanamori, 1993; Mayeda & Walter, 1996; Boyd, 2017), normalizing by the Shearer catalog's local mean stress drop does not reduce the standard deviation compared to the unmodified stress drops. I compile stress drops of larger events from the literature, and identify 15 M5.5-7.5 earthquakes with at least three estimates. Because of the wide range of stress drop estimates for each event, and the different techniques and assumptions, it is difficult to assign a single stress drop value to each event. Instead, I compare the distributions of stress drop estimates for pairs of events, and test whether the means of the distributions are statistically significantly different. The events divide into 3 categories: low, medium, and high stress drop, with significant differences in mean stress drop between events in the low and the high stress drop categories. I test whether the spatial patterns of the Shearer catalog stress drops can predict the categories of the 15 events. I find that they cannot, rather the large event stress drops are uncorrelated with the local mean stress drop from the Shearer catalog. These results imply that the regionalization of stress drops of small events does not extend to the larger events, at least with current standard techniques of stress drop estimation.

Preliminary ground motion prediction equations for the Central and Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graizer, V.

2014-12-01

At the current stage I used the database created under the Next Generation Attenuations (NGA-East) project by Cramer et al. (2013). In contrast to the active tectonic environment in the Western US (WUS) the strong motion record database for the stable continental environment in the Central and Eastern US (CEUS) is not sufficient to create purely empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) covering required for the PSHA magnitude (4.5

Design and Manufacturing of Composite Tower Structure for Wind Turbine Equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Hyunbum

2018-02-01

This study proposes the composite tower design process for large wind turbine equipment. In this work, structural design of tower and analysis using finite element method was performed. After structural design, prototype blade manufacturing and test was performed. The used material is a glass fiber and epoxy resin composite. And also, sand was used in the middle part. The optimized structural design and analysis was performed. The parameter for optimized structural design is weight reduction and safety of structure. Finally, structure of tower will be confirmed by structural test.

Coal conversion processes and analysis methodologies for synthetic fuels production. [technology assessment and economic analysis of reactor design for coal gasification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

Information to identify viable coal gasification and utilization technologies is presented. Analysis capabilities required to support design and implementation of coal based synthetic fuels complexes are identified. The potential market in the Southeast United States for coal based synthetic fuels is investigated. A requirements analysis to identify the types of modeling and analysis capabilities required to conduct and monitor coal gasification project designs is discussed. Models and methodologies to satisfy these requirements are identified and evaluated, and recommendations are developed. Requirements for development of technology and data needed to improve gasification feasibility and economies are examined.

Quality by design case study: an integrated multivariate approach to drug product and process development.

PubMed

Huang, Jun; Kaul, Goldi; Cai, Chunsheng; Chatlapalli, Ramarao; Hernandez-Abad, Pedro; Ghosh, Krishnendu; Nagi, Arwinder

2009-12-01

To facilitate an in-depth process understanding, and offer opportunities for developing control strategies to ensure product quality, a combination of experimental design, optimization and multivariate techniques was integrated into the process development of a drug product. A process DOE was used to evaluate effects of the design factors on manufacturability and final product CQAs, and establish design space to ensure desired CQAs. Two types of analyses were performed to extract maximal information, DOE effect & response surface analysis and multivariate analysis (PCA and PLS). The DOE effect analysis was used to evaluate the interactions and effects of three design factors (water amount, wet massing time and lubrication time), on response variables (blend flow, compressibility and tablet dissolution). The design space was established by the combined use of DOE, optimization and multivariate analysis to ensure desired CQAs. Multivariate analysis of all variables from the DOE batches was conducted to study relationships between the variables and to evaluate the impact of material attributes/process parameters on manufacturability and final product CQAs. The integrated multivariate approach exemplifies application of QbD principles and tools to drug product and process development.

Performance (Off-Design) Cycle Analysis for a Turbofan Engine With Interstage Turbine Burner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liew, K. H.; Urip, E.; Yang, S. L.; Mattingly, J. D.; Marek, C. J.

2005-01-01

This report presents the performance of a steady-state, dual-spool, separate-exhaust turbofan engine, with an interstage turbine burner (ITB) serving as a secondary combustor. The ITB, which is located in the transition duct between the high- and the low-pressure turbines, is a relatively new concept for increasing specific thrust and lowering pollutant emissions in modern jet-engine propulsion. A detailed off-design performance analysis of ITB engines is written in Microsoft(Registered Trademark) Excel (Redmond, Washington) macrocode with Visual Basic Application to calculate engine performances over the entire operating envelope. Several design-point engine cases are pre-selected using a parametric cycle-analysis code developed previously in Microsoft(Registered Trademark) Excel, for off-design analysis. The off-design code calculates engine performances (i.e. thrust and thrust-specific-fuel-consumption) at various flight conditions and throttle settings.

Similitude design for the vibration problems of plates and shells: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yunpeng; Wang, You; Luo, Zhong; Han, Qingkai; Wang, Deyou

2017-06-01

Similitude design plays a vital role in the analysis of vibration and shock problems encountered in large engineering equipment. Similitude design, including dimensional analysis and governing equation method, is founded on the dynamic similitude theory. This study reviews the application of similitude design methods in engineering practice and summarizes the major achievements of the dynamic similitude theory in structural vibration and shock problems in different fields, including marine structures, civil engineering structures, and large power equipment. This study also reviews the dynamic similitude design methods for thin-walled and composite material plates and shells, including the most recent work published by the authors. Structure sensitivity analysis is used to evaluate the scaling factors to attain accurate distorted scaling laws. Finally, this study discusses the existing problems and the potential of the dynamic similitude theory for the analysis of vibration and shock problems of structures.

Sizing and Lifecycle Cost Analysis of an Ares V Composite Interstage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Troy; Smeltzer, Stan; Grenoble, Ray; Mason, Brian; Rosario, Sev; Fairbairn, Bob

2012-01-01

The Interstage Element of the Ares V launch vehicle was sized using a commercially available structural sizing software tool. Two different concepts were considered, a metallic design and a composite design. Both concepts were sized using similar levels of analysis fidelity and included the influence of design details on each concept. Additionally, the impact of the different manufacturing techniques and failure mechanisms for composite and metallic construction were considered. Significant details were included in analysis models of each concept, including penetrations for human access, joint connections, as well as secondary loading effects. The designs and results of the analysis were used to determine lifecycle cost estimates for the two Interstage designs. Lifecycle cost estimates were based on industry provided cost data for similar launch vehicle components. The results indicated that significant mass as well as cost savings are attainable for the chosen composite concept as compared with a metallic option.

Population Analysis: Communicating in Context

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajulu, Sudhakar; Thaxton, Sherry

2008-01-01

Providing accommodation to a widely varying user population presents a challenge to engineers and designers. It is often even difficult to quantify who is accommodated and who is not accommodated by designs, especially for equipment with multiple critical anthropometric dimensions. An approach to communicating levels of accommodation referred to as population analysis applies existing human factors techniques in novel ways. This paper discusses the definition of population analysis as well as major applications and case studies. The major applications of population analysis consist of providing accommodation information for multivariate problems and enhancing the value of feedback from human-in-the-loop testing. The results of these analyses range from the provision of specific accommodation percentages of the user population to recommendations of design specifications based on quantitative data. Such feedback is invaluable to designers and results in the design of products that accommodate the intended user population.

Comparative analysis of design codes for timber bridges in Canada, the United States, and Europe

Treesearch

James Wacker; James (Scott) Groenier

2010-01-01

The United States recently completed its transition from the allowable stress design code to the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) reliability-based code for the design of most highway bridges. For an international perspective on the LRFD-based bridge codes, a comparative analysis is presented: a study addressed national codes of the United States, Canada, and...